Phase 2

.
RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

Last weekend the G&M published an article about a quickly approaching peak in the economy, leaving the equity markets potentially ‘at risk’. While I agree with many of the points made in the article, I disagree with the conclusion that this peak in the economy could put the bull market at risk. From our lens the global economy is still in the early stages of a new economic expansion period, which, based on history, suggests the current bull market still has years left to play out.

Naturally equity market returns are likely to moderate in the coming years (the S&P 500 is up 100% since last March), but more moderate returns is a far cry from a peak in the stock market and negative returns, as implied in the article. Today I discuss ‘phase two’ of this current bull market, which is going to be driven by a sustained improvement in the US/global economy and a material rise in corporate profits.

In every recession governments and central banks around the world respond by injecting ‘stimulus’ into the economy to help blunt the economic hit and help fuel a stock market recovery. This occurred during the 2000 tech crash, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic-induced recession. In fact, we’ve never in history seen such a large response from governments and central banks with an estimated $20 trillion in total stimulus injected into the system during this latest downturn

You can see this stimulus and its effect on the stock market in the chart below. The chart shows the year-over-year change in the US money supply and the change in the S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. As the US government ramped up spending and the Federal Reserve injected trillions of dollars of stimulus through their bond buying programs, this has resulted in a massive increase in the US money supply. This stimulus helped turn the economy and stock markets around, which lead to the sharp increase in the P/E ratio. This is ‘phase one’ of any economic and stock market recovery, following a recession.

US Money Supply and S&P 500 P/E Levels

 

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

I believe we’re in the process of transitioning from ‘phase one’, characterized by extreme liquidity and stimulus, to ‘phase two’, where we start to see a real and sustainable period of economic activity, and in turn, higher corporate profits.

In short, corporate profits are primed to surge over the next 12-24 months, which should continue to propel the equity markets higher.

This week the second quarter earnings season kicked into high gear with a number of US investment firms delivering strong results. Goldman Sachs, for example, reported $15/share in earnings, besting analyst estimates of $10/share. I think this is just the start for the current quarter and I see continued robust earnings growth in future quarters.

Last quarter (Q1) was the ‘inflection point’ where earnings turned positive with the S&P 500 reporting a 54% increase in year-over-year earnings. For this quarter, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings of $46.15/share, which if realized would equate to 100% yoy earnings growth. Very impressive!

Now ‘comps’ are easy this quarter since this time last year corporate profitability took a nosedive from the pandemic downturn, but the growth is impressive nonetheless, and I see it continuing into 2022.

Currently, consensus is for earnings growth of 31% and 19% for Q3 and Q4, respectively, so this is expected to continue into year-end.

S&P 500 Earnings Outlook Looks Bright

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Why is this so important?

Easy, over the long-run earnings are the main driver of stock prices.

Below is a simple yet important chart which overlays the S&P 500 index and its underlying earnings. You can see the clear relationship between the two and I note that the correlation is a very high 0.96%.

Basically, as earnings go over the long run, so do stock prices. This is why ex-CNBC host and President Trump’s economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, would often say that ‘profits are the mother’s milk of stock prices’.

So going back to the G&M article over peaking economic growth, yes I believe that’s the case as we’re seeing the initial surge in the economy as vaccination rates pick up and economies around the world re-open. Economic growth, as measured by GDP, is likely to peak sometime this year, but I believe we then transition into a new phase of this economic recovery, where we see additional job gains, higher consumer spending and continued economic growth. This should then translate into stronger corporate profits, which should keep this bull market pumping for some time to come.

Now to be clear, we’re still going to see short-term corrections occur as the equity markets re-calibrate to the peak in stimulus and economic growth. But as long as the economy continues to grow and chug out higher corporate profits, this bull market has a lot of legs still left in it.

The S&P 500 is Highly Correlated with its Earnings

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

81 comments ↓

#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 07.17.21 at 10:18 am

Too logical! This article should be slapped onto the front page of the G&M!

#2 Joe on 07.17.21 at 10:23 am

OMG in the last chart the S&P was basically flat until 2009 crisis then shot up and kept going!!! If 2009 never happened it may have still been flat for all these decades???

#3 My Body My Choice on 07.17.21 at 11:08 am

Hey Ryan: Thanks for the good analysis and predictions for the future.

Yes, with the massive worldwide increase in money supply/quantitative easing/stimulus/money printing/government debt … asset prices (equities, houses, land) will increase in value/price tag.

#4 Big Bucks on 07.17.21 at 11:23 am

The Dow was at 7000 in 2009 and is 35,000 today.I would say a correction of 20-60% is on the horizon sooner than later.The last 12 years has been one hell of a run and even a 50% correction would still mean a tripling of the Dow.Think about that for a minute and then rethink the theory this bull has years to run.!2 years from now we may be lucky to be at these lofty levels.

#5 TurnerNation on 07.17.21 at 12:07 pm

Want to see the future of State-sponsored housing? Yes you will be living in an outdoor shed – if the Global State considered your job “Non Essential” in the New System.

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/here-are-the-sites-being-considered-for-portlands-city-run-homeless-villages/283-5ae50725-66c0-47b8-bf5a-4e1688fd52c1
“These villages will contain outdoor shelters to provide people with a place to sleep, basic hygiene, access to case management and behavioral health services and, “most importantly, dignity and stability that will lead to permanent housing,” a news release from the city of Portland said. ”


— Could your job be shut down? Yep. Keep an eye on Australia – some say that it’s the test zone. This sounds a bit re-setish to me? Not allowing people to work.
The science indicates to shut down at 12:01am for maximal heath outcomes.
(This all makes sense once you realize that, to the Globalists we are the virus to be contained.)

.Sydney truck drivers protesting the COVID-19-shutdown of construction sites | 7NEWSNews (youtu.be)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64glYP1vn_I&feature=youtu.be
7NEWS Australia – Sydney COVID-19 Protest: A convoy of trucks is making its way across Sydney.
Protesting the shutdown of the city’s construction industry at 12:01am on Monday 19th July.

.Australia, which has had 2 Covid deaths in 2021, is going back into lockdown (reuters.com)

———–
— You thought this control would be going away? Nuh-uh.
Also what’s the long game? Dependence on state. For free drugs, income, housing. That drumbeat is tattooing Kanada, faster than a Mill with his CERB.

.Norovirus warning as bug spreads in England after lockdown eased. (theguardian.com)

— Of course control over our Travel/Movements is the goal. From Day 1 of this WW3 we were old #stayhome.

.Double-jabbed Britons arriving back from France must quarantine for 10 days (dailymail.co.uk)

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 12:35 pm

So, the Roaring Twenties Phase ll are on.
Gotta brush up on the Charleston.
Thanks fo the heads-up.

#7 Don on 07.17.21 at 12:55 pm

When you have to write too much to prove your point, it shows an elaborate effort to mask the inevitable.

Markets are going to tumble starting this month. Possibly start next week. All the big numbers are already factored in.

A rude awakening is in the mix. Where the money will be is in commodities. (Beef, grains, Sugar..)

#8 Quintilian on 07.17.21 at 1:01 pm

The PE ratios are very high, but that’s not the whole story.

The companies that have pricing power have been raising prices almost on a monthly basis, citing supply chain problems etc. The earnings are not real or sustainable.

At some point in spite of the hype induced, unjustifiable fueling from the central bankers, and the cloaked inflation fake numbers, reality will be reflected in the stock prices.

If you buy now, it better not be with money you might need.

#9 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 07.17.21 at 1:09 pm

DELETED

#10 Stone on 07.17.21 at 1:09 pm

In every recession governments and central banks around the world respond by injecting ‘stimulus’ into the economy to help blunt the economic hit and help fuel a stock market recovery. This occurred during the 2000 tech crash, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic-induced recession. In fact, we’ve never in history seen such a large response from governments and central banks with an estimated $20 trillion in total stimulus injected into the system during this latest downturn

———

So in other words, every major downturn solicits gouvernments and central banks to outdo prior gouvernments and central banks on how much stimulus they pour into the economy. So, it was $20 trillion this time. How much will it be next time? Do I really want to even know?

#11 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 1:18 pm

#150 Sunshowers on 07.16.21 at 10:45 pm
#95 Confucius say … on 07.16.21 at 5:43 pm
Indeed, wise Confucius is correct.
The Americans did a study which showed that money does indeed buy happiness, but that happiness plateaus at $75,000 USD per person per year.

*****************
Again you citing another ridiculous study.
This one leaves out a rather important factor: retirement
Unless you want to work until you die, making just as much as you spend every year doesn’t bring happiness, it brings future disappointment and even disaster.

Sure, if you want to give me a $75,000 USD pension indexed to inflation starting at age 40 I’d be thrilled and wouldn’t need any more than that.

Since I had to make my own pension, I needed rather larger paychecks and obviously an investment portfolio that can support it.

#12 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 1:28 pm

#4 Big Bucks on 07.17.21 at 11:23 am
The Dow was at 7000 in 2009 and is 35,000 today.I would say a correction of 20-60% is on the horizon sooner than later.The last 12 years has been one hell of a run and even a 50% correction would still mean a tripling of the Dow.Think about that for a minute and then rethink the theory this bull has years to run.!2 years from now we may be lucky to be at these lofty levels.
********************
But what would be the catalyst for such a drop?
All investors across the globe will collectively agree that
The P/E is too high, the DOW price should be 50% lower, let’s all agree to buy and sell only at 17,000 or less”
Why? Why would they do that? As far as I can tell stocks and the P/E keep climbing higher based on investor confidence so something major needs to change to shake that confidence.
E.G. a global pandemic

#13 Patty on 07.17.21 at 1:31 pm

Hi Ryan,

I referenced that same article here last weekend.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-reaching-a-peak-the-economic-rebound-is-topping-out-and-stocks-are-at/

I appreciate your optimism, but I think it assumes too many things will remain stable and we will just return to the old ways.

The reckonings with all the new debt, the huge environment problems, food supply, and other international and social issues will be in front of us very soon. Probably right after the fall election.

There won’t be any decade of “Roaring Twenties” this time.

Maybe a boom for one year, perhaps two. By 2023, it will be feeling a lot more like 1930. But with a much scarier environmental situation and who knows what kind of global political stuff going on.

Josephine Baker ain’t comin’ back. This time the party’s cancelled before it even starts.

I would love it if you were right. But I can’t ingest enough hopium to believe that.

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 1:32 pm

#176 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 11:14 am
I find it baffling when people give ‘solutions’ that involve gov’t taking more of their own or their neighbour’s hard-earned income when the issue is, and always has been, spending.

A bit of American mistrust of government would be helpful.
——————–
A bit?
Why bother have a government at all?
Let’s try full blown anarchy for a while.

#15 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 1:34 pm

#2 Joe on 07.17.21 at 10:23 am
OMG in the last chart the S&P was basically flat until 2009 crisis then shot up and kept going!!! If 2009 never happened it may have still been flat for all these decades???
*********************
That chart might look like this is true, but the returns over any significant period have always been kinda great.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

#154 Nonplused on 07.16.21 at 11:11 pm

“But wait!” you’ll say, “customers pay the GST!” Well who do you think is going to pay the revenue tax? Especially in the case where the company has no profit or the revenue tax moves them into the loss column? The tax has to be passed on to the customer unless the company has a money tree in the basement. And if they do have a money tree, they should be showing a profit, which is taxed.

My idea is not targeting those companies that are legitimately not making profits and thus must raise prices to break even or better. Yes, their customers do need to pay more for the service. If they are not willing to pay more, then the company goes under and a more efficient one replaces that service, or the supply goes away. That’s cold, hard, brutal, and efficient capitalism.

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset what they would normally pay. I’ve seen these things happen. Every time you see a taxi, a dump truck, or a big rig decked out in shiny new mags and all the bells and whistles, it is because they have been buying these things to create a write-off.

The big corporations do it in bigger ways and this creates unnecessary expenditures, lawyer, and accounting fees which the customer also ultimately pays for.

#17 MD on 07.17.21 at 2:00 pm

Debt train has left the station long time back, the economy is dead and it’s only survival is stimulus and bond buying by govt and central bankers. Let’s see how things go if they even mention tapering of either. Give me a trillion dollars and I will show everyone a very good time.

#18 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 2:02 pm

#164 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 4:24 am

This might be the most ridiculous idea posted, congratulations.
Why would 2 companies in totally different situations pay the same tax?
Take 2 companies each with 300K in sales as examples:
Company 1: Has 3 employees totaling $200K in expenses.
Company 2: has 4 employees totaling $250K in expenses.

Do you think both should be taxed the same amount because they had the same sales?

Because at the end of the day, if all companies were actually paying taxes and not hiding profits, they would both be paying a lower rate than what they are paying now. Also, there would be much more money flowing through the economy.

#19 Tarot Card on 07.17.21 at 2:15 pm

Thanks for the Blog Garth
Thanks for the Post Ryan
Always good to have a long term positive prospective
There has been to much in the news about a correction.
Even posts on here with dire warnings.

Many times I thought of selling before a correction and every time I have noticed you never can time the bottom and then bang the market hits a bottom then goes straight up usually past the point of your selling to be safe.

The key is dividends, you can ride any correction.
Gosh some of the ETFs are still paying north 5 and 6 percent.

A young man of 15 ask me what should I invest in? I said ZWB the banks will never fail and always pay a dividend.
He went and look and it was the day it fell 30 or 40 cents
But guess what, it recovered just market movements.

I think also another key is if you need a certain amount of cash for the next six or 12 months then take it out and do not worry about a correction.

Have a great weekend.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.21 at 2:20 pm

@#7 Don
“A rude awakening is in the mix. Where the money will be is in commodities. (Beef, grains, Sugar..)”

+++

I’ll take that advice with….a grain of salt……

#21 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 07.17.21 at 2:28 pm

I LIKE IT!!!

I’m all in and some.

#22 cuke and tomato picker on 07.17.21 at 2:29 pm

When governments keep injecting tax payer money into the economy is like kids setting up a cool aid stand and saying business is good as they are drinking their own cool aid.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 3:34 pm

#7 Don on 07.17.21 at 12:55 pm
When you have to write too much to prove your point, it shows an elaborate effort to mask the inevitable.

Markets are going to tumble starting this month. Possibly start next week. All the big numbers are already factored in.

A rude awakening is in the mix. Where the money will be is in commodities. (Beef, grains, Sugar..)
—————
Well I hope you’re right.
Beef, grains etc.
Canada is king in commodities.
Bring it on.
Just don’t give it away, like in the past.

#24 Don Guillermo on 07.17.21 at 3:44 pm

#176 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 11:14 am
I find it baffling when people give ‘solutions’ that involve gov’t taking more of their own or their neighbour’s hard-earned income when the issue is, and always has been, spending.

A bit of American mistrust of government would be helpful
****************************************
I have to bump this as I find it baffling as well. If it’s common on this blog imagine how the GP thinks … or do they?

#25 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 3:55 pm

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 1:32 pm
#176 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 11:14 am
I find it baffling when people give ‘solutions’ that involve gov’t taking more of their own or their neighbour’s hard-earned income when the issue is, and always has been, spending.

A bit of American mistrust of government would be helpful.

———–

A bit?
Why bother have a government at all?
Let’s try full blown anarchy for a while.

———–

Relax, bro. I know Austrians are prone to extremism, but try to see the big picture. Everything in moderation. Have your daughter take you for a relaxing drive.

#26 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 4:00 pm

#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset… [etc]

———-

Please provide an example.

#27 Jake on 07.17.21 at 4:13 pm

The knowledge shared here is absolutely the best for us little Canadians compared to CNBC who rarely mention anything Canuck except for LULU, GOOS and SHOP. Then, there’s the Boring News Network BNN and I just don’t go there. Thanks guys!

#28 Virginia Rego on 07.17.21 at 4:41 pm

#22 cuke and tomato picker on 07.17.21 at 2:29 pm
When governments keep injecting tax payer money into the economy is like kids setting up a cool aid stand and saying business is good as they are drinking their own cool aid.
———————————————
making, selling and drinking the kool aid made from the supplies in their moms’ kitchens…

#29 Ryan Lewenza on 07.17.21 at 5:17 pm

Stone “ So in other words, every major downturn solicits gouvernments and central banks to outdo prior gouvernments and central banks on how much stimulus they pour into the economy. So, it was $20 trillion this time. How much will it be next time? Do I really want to even know?”

I’m just stating the facts. If you don’t like the stimulus then you could email T2, Biden and Fed Chairman Powell. Personally I’m too busy understanding these relationships and making my clients $. – Ryan L

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.21 at 5:24 pm

Ponzies Pandemonium

“A bit?
Why bother have a government at all?
Let’s try full blown anarchy for a while.”

+++
Yeah. Right.
It worked out great in Seattle’s Capital Hill district last year.
Rapes, murders, arson and looting….until the police finally got the go ahead from the spineless politicians “in charge” to “do something” about the lawless “Utopia”.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/seattle-capitol-hill-occupied-protest-zone-dismantle-mayor-chop-1.5623081

#31 Balmuto on 07.17.21 at 5:27 pm

Commercial real estate market is the biggest risk to the bull market. These buildings can’t continue to hold their pre-pandemic values. WFH and online shopping has radically changed the picture but commercial RE values have yet to seriously adjust. It’s only a matter of time though. That’s going to be the catalyst the for next crash.

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 5:31 pm

#26 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 4:00 pm
#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset… [etc]

———-

Please provide an example.
——————–
Just finished watching “The Fall of the American Empire”.
Good movie.
It provides a lot of good examples.
I also wonder why the Quebecois make so much better movies than the Canadian Anglos?

#33 Leo Trollstoy on 07.17.21 at 5:50 pm

I like the word “consensus”

It really gives the feeling think that economists can actually predict the future

#34 Joseph R. on 07.17.21 at 6:21 pm

#22 cuke and tomato picker on 07.17.21 at 2:29 pm
When governments keep injecting tax payer money into the economy is like kids setting up a cool aid stand and saying business is good as they are drinking their own cool aid.

——————————————————————-

Money is a creation of the government: you can’t separate the two.

Have you ever studied how fiat currency operate?

#35 Leo Trollstoy on 07.17.21 at 6:21 pm

Money can buy happiness

The $75k limit has been debunked for awhile

https://digest.bps.org.uk/2021/07/01/cant-buy-happiness-research-on-money-digested/

#36 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 6:24 pm

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 5:31 pm

Just finished watching “The Fall of the American Empire”.
Good movie.

I also wonder why the Quebecois make so much better movies than the Canadian Anglos?

———

I prefer Austrian movies. My two favourites are ‘ The Sound of Music’ and ‘Heidi’.

#37 My Body My Choice on 07.17.21 at 6:25 pm

General Labor Strike planned across US:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/general-labor-strike-planned-across-us

Ultimately, the people have the power if they choose to exercise it.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 6:31 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.21 at 5:24 pm
Ponzies Pandemonium

“A bit?
Why bother have a government at all?
Let’s try full blown anarchy for a while.”

+++
Yeah. Right.
It worked out great in Seattle’s Capital Hill district last year.
Rapes, murders, arson and looting….
———–
You forgot “pillaging”.
As I said, either go all in.
Or not at all.

#39 Ken R on 07.17.21 at 6:40 pm

Abe Lincoln, “The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

#40 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.17.21 at 6:48 pm

#29 Ryan Lewenza on 07.17.21 at 5:17 pm

Stone “ So in other words, every major downturn solicits gouvernments and central banks to outdo prior gouvernments and central banks on how much stimulus they pour into the economy. So, it was $20 trillion this time. How much will it be next time? Do I really want to even know?”

I’m just stating the facts. If you don’t like the stimulus then you could email T2, Biden and Fed Chairman Powell. Personally I’m too busy understanding these relationships and making my clients $. – Ryan L

—————————

In that case, you should love this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worrying-me-quite-bit-mrna-vaccine-inventor-shares-viral-thread-showing-covid-surge-most

^ Fourth wave incoming, and the vaxxers, not the anti-vaxxers seem to be driving it, according to inventor of mnra vaccine! LOL!!!

So we can assume that central banks will be kicking the printing presses on overdrive! Cha Ching!!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikje8bxl5NI

#41 Don Guillermo on 07.17.21 at 7:01 pm

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 5:31 pm
#26 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 4:00 pm
#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset… [etc]

———-

Please provide an example.
——————–
Just finished watching “The Fall of the American Empire”.
Good movie.
It provides a lot of good examples.
I also wonder why the Quebecois make so much better movies than the Canadian Anglos?
**********************************
So simple. Most English Canadian talented artists ends up in California.

#42 Love_The_Cottage on 07.17.21 at 7:07 pm

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 5:31 pm
#26 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 4:00 pm
#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset… [etc]

———-

Please provide an example.
——————–
Just finished watching “The Fall of the American Empire”.
Good movie.
It provides a lot of good examples.
_________
Can’t argue with that logic. I’m an expert on little league baseball because I watched The Bad News Bears.

#43 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 7:42 pm

#40 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.17.21 at 6:48 pm
#29 Ryan Lewenza on 07.17.21 at 5:17 pm
In that case, you should love this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worrying-me-quite-bit-mrna-vaccine-inventor-shares-viral-thread-showing-covid-surge-most

^ Fourth wave incoming, and the vaxxers, not the anti-vaxxers seem to be driving it, according to inventor of mnra vaccine! LOL!!!
*******************
Holy crap that zerohedge site and their comment section is a dumpster fire full of conspiracy nutters.
Makes these blog dogs look like actual geniuses (mostly)

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 7:42 pm

#36 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 6:24 pm
#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 5:31 pm

Just finished watching “The Fall of the American Empire”.
Good movie.

I also wonder why the Quebecois make so much better movies than the Canadian Anglos?

———

I prefer Austrian movies. My two favourites are ‘ The Sound of Music’ and ‘Heidi’.
————
Of course, you do.
These are American Hollywood movies.
Filmed in Austria.
Not a single Austrian actor/actress.
Chris Plummer said it was the worst movie he ever made.
But ze Amis liked it.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.21 at 7:42 pm

@#32 Ponzie’s Pugnacious Prattle
“I also wonder why the Quebecois make so much better movies than the Canadian Anglos?”

++++

Poutine?

#46 The Woosh on 07.17.21 at 8:28 pm

In fact, we’ve never in history seen such a large response from governments and central banks with an estimated $20 trillion in total stimulus injected into the system during this latest downturn

————————————————

Lots of money injected but are stock prices really that high. When I look at your chart and see that less money was injected after 2008 and the peak of that period runs in the same line as now…I think the market looked at $20 trillion and said…Meh!

Central banks and governments inject $20 trillion and get a $12 trillion return on investment. Hmmm…think about it.

#47 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.17.21 at 8:32 pm

#43 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 7:42 pm

Holy crap that zerohedge site and their comment section is a dumpster fire full of conspiracy nutters.
Makes these blog dogs look like actual geniuses (mostly)
——————

I know, right?

I usually get my news from CNN, but some random nutter (inventor of mRNA vaccine) tweeted it and I checked every news site, CNN, MSNBC, NYT and even WaPo none if them were covering it.

#48 Nonplused on 07.17.21 at 8:48 pm

#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm
#154 Nonplused on 07.16.21 at 11:11 pm

“But wait!” you’ll say, “customers pay the GST!” Well who do you think is going to pay the revenue tax? Especially in the case where the company has no profit or the revenue tax moves them into the loss column? The tax has to be passed on to the customer unless the company has a money tree in the basement. And if they do have a money tree, they should be showing a profit, which is taxed.

My idea is not targeting those companies that are legitimately not making profits and thus must raise prices to break even or better. Yes, their customers do need to pay more for the service. If they are not willing to pay more, then the company goes under and a more efficient one replaces that service, or the supply goes away. That’s cold, hard, brutal, and efficient capitalism.

———————————————-

So, “cold hard capitalism” requires companies to either charge more or go broke? Personally I think companies with tight profit margins are good for consumers. Millions of Walmart shoppers can’t be wrong. The less Walmart has to pay in taxes the less they have to charge me for whatever crapola I’m buying there. Because ultimately, I’m paying the taxes, not Walmart. It is hidden in the price.

Capitalism isn’t only about the maximum profit. It is also a system whereby competition produces the most available goods at the lowest price for consumers. When it is working perfectly, competition lowers the profit margin down to the bare minimum while maximizing production efficiency. That means we all get more for less. Sure, it means that there will always be a company or restaurant or whatever going broke, but if the alternative is massive profits and taxes and thus drastically higher prices, I’m all for it.

-NP

————————————————-

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset what they would normally pay. I’ve seen these things happen. Every time you see a taxi, a dump truck, or a big rig decked out in shiny new mags and all the bells and whistles, it is because they have been buying these things to create a write-off.

——————————————

What is wrong with shiny new mags? Write-off or not the company has to buy the mags which results in GST as well as wages (and thus income taxes) for all the people in the supply chain that get the aluminum from the ground to mounted on the rig.

And the tax code could probably be simpler, but laying off a ton of well paid tax accountants isn’t a direct line to improving tax revenues. Many of those accountants are in the top bracket. Most probably. The partners certainly are.

There are no avenues for taxation that have not already been explored. All that is left to do from here is fiddle with the rates, but the argument that we are already at peak tax is a strong one, meaning that any increase in total tax rates will lead to less tax revenue due to economic contraction.

Our latest new tax, the carbon tax, is really just a massive increase in the GST/HST, but called something else to sell it to the public. Only it is more insidious than the GST/HST because it is based on units rather than price. It is sort of like they placed a $0.10 tax on nails rather than a percent of what you pay for nails. And sure, they are selling it as an attempt to persuade people to consume less carbon energy, but the reality is that for most people there is only so much they can do. They will have to cut down on consumption of everything, which is going to have negative affects on the economy. For many people, the choice between gassing up the car and buying a new bike for their kid is very real. For almost all people, there is some point at which discretionary spending must be curtailed.

Every now and then we get a visit in this comments section from some twit who says they are willing and able to pay more tax. Well go ahead! The rest of us will thank you for your generosity! Or give it to your favorite charity. That helps too. But I think a society that requires a 54% top tax bracket is probably taking enough. That means those people are literally tax slaves for over half the year. And we think the tax rate is still not high enough? How high should it be? 100%? I guarantee that at 100% not even dentists will show up for work. 100% is an extreme example, but it does help the thought process to come around to the idea that there is a tax rate that is too high to accomplish anything but convince people not to go in to work.

-NP

——————————————–

The top tax bracket in Canada is not 54%, that is merely the top income tax bracket. On top of that you pay GST/HST, carbon taxes, property taxes, excise taxes, sin taxes, and so on. A person in the top tax bracket pays way more than 54%. So how much is enough?

-NP

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 9:31 pm

——————————————–

The top tax bracket in Canada is not 54%, that is merely the top income tax bracket. On top of that you pay GST/HST, carbon taxes, property taxes, excise taxes, sin taxes, and so on. A person in the top tax bracket pays way more than 54%. So how much is enough?

-NP
—————
Oh, cry me a river.
My top tax bracket is 38%.
And I pay all the other taxes that you listed that poor Jimmy Patterson pays.
Try again.

#50 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 07.17.21 at 9:49 pm

Code for Buy U.S. I luv u kidz.

#51 katzndogz on 07.17.21 at 10:25 pm

Nobody knows nothin’.

#52 Tyberious on 07.17.21 at 10:52 pm

Several big names in finance are predicting market moves in the other direction Ryan.
I hate to choose sides so I’m gonna assume the markets are going sideways for the foreseeable future. It seems very unpopular these days to even hint at the possibility of a Bear Market.
So lollipop and candy forever more…

#53 Nonplused on 07.17.21 at 10:54 pm

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.17.21 at 9:31 pm
——————————————–

The top tax bracket in Canada is not 54%, that is merely the top income tax bracket. On top of that you pay GST/HST, carbon taxes, property taxes, excise taxes, sin taxes, and so on. A person in the top tax bracket pays way more than 54%. So how much is enough?

-NP
—————
Oh, cry me a river.
My top tax bracket is 38%.
And I pay all the other taxes that you listed that poor Jimmy Patterson pays.
Try again.

————————————

Are you suggesting you should pay more than 38%? That seems high enough already to me.

And who is Jimmy Patterson?

#54 S.Bby on 07.17.21 at 11:14 pm

I don’t think so …

#55 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 11:35 pm

#26 Sail Away on 07.17.21 at 4:00 pm

#16 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 1:54 pm

My idea is addressing those companies that pay lawyers and accountants a lot of money to keep profits from showing up on the books every year by buying things and creating losses to offset… [etc]

———-

Please provide an example.

Under “legitimate business expenses”

MEALS AND ENTERTAINMENT EXPENSES
Many tax-minded entrepreneurs are familiar with the write-off for meals and entertainment expenses, and diligently book it whenever they take a current or prospective customer out for lunch (50 per cent of the expense is deductible). What they may not know is how generous the category is: it includes the cost of tickets to the performing arts, athletic events, hospitality suites, nightclubs, vacations, and more. Steinberg notes that golfing green fees are not deductible, but the meals and drinks at golf clubhouses are.

https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/news/accounting/tax/2018-04-04-business-expenses-what-you-need-to-know

Why Do Banks Write Off Bad Debt?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070815/why-do-banks-write-bad-debt.asp

Understanding Write-Offs, Charge-Offs, and Foreclosures

https://www.thedollarstretcher.com/money-problems/understanding-write-offs-charge-offs-and-foreclosures/

#56 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 11:51 pm

#48 Nonplused on 07.17.21 at 8:48 pm

So, “cold hard capitalism” requires companies to either charge more or go broke? Personally I think companies with tight profit margins are good for consumers. Millions of Walmart shoppers can’t be wrong. The less Walmart has to pay in taxes the less they have to charge me for whatever crapola I’m buying there. Because ultimately, I’m paying the taxes, not Walmart. It is hidden in the price.

So if you are making a loss you expect taxpayers to pick up the rest even though, unlike the customers, they get no benefit from the business? If the profit margin is tight why wouldn’t people support it, unless the product they are buying is frivolous and no truly needed? If so, why should taxpayer scarce dollars be required to subsidize those losses?

#57 My Cuba is better than yours on 07.18.21 at 12:24 am

Ryan, we’re reading about ‘peak’ and ‘ back to normal’ etc etc because Trudeaus handlers want to call an election. Suddenly it’s all good again. Miracle that Trudeau has everything under control and his bots are ubiquitous telling us so. He’s got the racists in the run , pumping billions into Quebec and immigration is on track to exceed expectations. We live in a perfect world, as long as Canadians don’t read opinion from global sources that are currently dragging the truth out by the collar, except in Canada where the well paid journalists are will to lie about our “build back better” propaganda camapaign to distract the bad news about Trudeau into machete swinging nuns . As this relates to markets? Perception rules the day and Trudeaus “thousands of op ed writers” want you to hate the rich and capitalism generally because there’s votes in the stumbling crowd. Bottom line…. everything you read in GM has been written in K Street.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.18.21 at 12:28 am

@#44 Ponzies Plumbing

“Chris Plummer said it was the worst movie he ever made.”

++++

That would be Christopher Plummer…the Canadian?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Plummer

#59 Salutations Sally on 07.18.21 at 1:31 am

Those are 2 cute pups, sleeping after a hard day of playing – but no story on them??

#60 TurnerNation on 07.18.21 at 2:13 am

In USA TSA flight boarding numbers are back to normal.
What about in the colonies?

WW3 continues and we are its target:

.Music banned on Greece’s Mykonos in new COVID-19 restrictions (reuters.com)

.She wanted to fly home to Canada to see her dying father. The Australian government said no (cbc.ca)

.Covid: London’s Metropolitan Line closed after staff pinged by NHS app (bbc.co.uk)

.Covid in Scotland: Family’s plea to allow dying father to see expat daughter (bbc.co.uk)

————-

Trusting everyone has read the book 1984? Or see above^

“POWER — ITS USE AND ITS SOURCES
George Orwell, 1984, p. 219-220

O’Brien: “The real power, the power we have to fight for night and day, is not power over things, but over men.” “How does one man assert his power over another Winston?”

Winston: “By making him suffer.”

O’Brien: “Power is inflicting pain and humiliation. Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.”

“Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power.”””

#61 SoggyShorts on 07.18.21 at 3:12 am

#47 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.17.21 at 8:32 pm
#43 SoggyShorts on 07.17.21 at 7:42 pm

I usually get my news from CNN, but some random nutter (inventor of mRNA vaccine) tweeted it and I checked every news site, CNN, MSNBC, NYT and even WaPo none if them ere covering it.
*******************
Maybe if MSM isn’t covering something there’s a good reason.
It would seem that the guy talks a lot of BS even if he has good credentials. Credentials BTW that do not include being the sole inventor of mRNA vaccines.

https://www.logically.ai/articles/who-is-dr.-robert-malone

#62 Wrk.dover on 07.18.21 at 6:06 am

#157 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 2:59 pm
#149 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 1:43 pm
#132 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 11:25 am
#115 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:21 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

I noticed you are going to ditch the truck. That spooks me! What percent of your monthly net do you anticipate a single 100 mile round trip costing in a few years?
——-

I’m ditching the 10mpg 2500HD, for a 25mpg diesel half ton
______________________________

The go to, best, diesel mechanic, within many miles of me here drives a 25mpg gasoline burning truck. For all good reasons.
—- –

Must be a pretty new truck if full size, S10’s and Rangers with V6’s don’t get 25mpg.

I’m building it myself. Square body GM from the 70’s/80’s, 6.2 Detroit IDI non turbo, 5 speed OD, 2wd, light tall geared rear diff, aluminum flatbed, under 4000lbs. It’ll tow 5-6K, and hwy mileage could be near 30mpg. The old 6.2 N/A was built expressly for fuel mileage, and there is no diesel that will throw down better mpg that bolts right into a half ton for less money. Not even close.

It’s also one of the most undesirable oil burners out there,
________________________________

And for good reason.

That’s a gas engine with diesel heads! Not many injector pumps left on RockAuto for that anchor/ mooring block.

A pre-vortec $1000 TBI Astro rated for/will pull 5500lbs and do 24MPG all day when it isn’t. Most definitely. S-10 too light on the back for a safe heavy tow.

The best way to cut fuel use is to reassess the distances you drive, and why, especially non work/school related.

I guess you shelved the gasifier pie in the sky.

I talked with my guy, he drives one of those extended cab gas driven girly trucks the terrorists on CNN prefer, even though he could pilfer diesel fuel often, when he had a diesel version. But, as I said, he drives gas, for all the right reasons. He knows. Cheaper bottom line, after all that foolish ‘but diesels run for ever’ nonsense. You can’t wear out an injected gas engine either.

My 4.3 came with 176,000 miles over a decade ago, now has 200,000 miles and uses no oil between 3000 mile changes. We summer drive it 1000 miles a year lately. Cheaper to keep her. Like the rest of them.

#63 Don on 07.18.21 at 7:29 am

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz

Have you checked your grocery bill lately? A global food crisis is brewing.

#64 Don in Windsor on 07.18.21 at 8:19 am

Some crow about the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Please note the average is a cooked average where they delete slow movers or bankrupt likely companies and promote the new fresh stars of the market. It is an average of specifically chosen companies, not a static list of companies. It is cooked. https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/08/31/dow-djia-rebalancing/?sh=73084831b29a

#65 Dharma Bum on 07.18.21 at 8:59 am

Ryan,

On behalf of the Woke Police, I must inform you that you are in danger of being cancelled.

It is unacceptable in our twisted and misguided culture to post articles that are merely factual, informative, practical, and provide technically sound advice.

You neglected to mention the following mandatory topics in order to virtue signal your solidarity with the social justice warrior agenda of our built back better society:

The plight of the indigenous
LGBTQQIAAP
Pronouns
Gender fluidity
BLM
Racialization of capital markets
Non-binary people
Homelessness
COVID – be very afraid because it’s here to stay
Obesity is healthy
Everyone is beautiful

Please govern yourself accordingly, lest you become cancelled, or worse yet, demonetized.

That is all.

#66 My Body My Choice on 07.18.21 at 9:35 am

#43 Soggy Shorts

Hey Soggy, seems your brain is a bit soggy too. Don’t you believe in the science? don’t you believe the data? don’t you believe the statistics? Sounds like you are being dogmatic in your disbelief of science, scientists and doctors, like Dr. Robert Malone, “a pioneer in the field of mRNA vaccines” whose zerohedge article you slander with zero evidence.

#67 Sail Away on 07.18.21 at 9:41 am

#55 NSNG on 07.17.21 at 11:35 pm

———–

Re: businesses getting over

———–

Under “legitimate business expenses”

MEALS AND ENTERTAINMENT EXPENSES

Many tax-minded entrepreneurs are familiar with the write-off for meals and entertainment expenses, and diligently book it whenever they take a current or prospective customer out for lunch (50 per cent of the expense is deductible). What they may not know is how generous the category is: it includes the cost of tickets to the performing arts, athletic events, hospitality suites, nightclubs, vacations, and more. Steinberg notes that golfing green fees are not deductible, but the meals and drinks at golf clubhouses are.

———–

That’s your example? And here you seemed so adamant that businesses get unfair advantages.

Something that many people confuse is the term ‘write-off’. It means that you pay for something, then get to deduct a small portion from taxes. You still pay for it- there is no way to spend yourself into profit although you can easily spend yourself into penury. An example:

Take some clients to a hockey game. Total company cost $10k game + 12% sales tax: $11.2k.

Writeoff 50%, also recoup sales tax on writeoff portion.
12% sales tax on $5,000 = $600
Write off $5,000 at 12% corp tax rate = $600

Total savings after working the system: $1,200.

And the company now has $10,000 less than it did yesterday, no matter how many high-priced accountants you hire.

#68 NoName on 07.18.21 at 9:59 am

#62 Wrk.dover on 07.18.21 at 6:06 am

Who changes oil oil every 5k (km)?

That is a way to often, unles you idle hours at time. Short oil intervals are waist of money, imho, especially now days when oils are so good.

That 4.3 v6 is even not gdi engine, so its gasoline that cleans and prevent all carbon buildup on intake side what is an ongoing issue with some, probably many new.engines. but it sems that many are following what toyota is doing, using regular injection and direct injecting to prevent that. so you won’t hear Toyota’s engines getting intake all gummed up and funny.

Now back to oil, i last month i changed oil on all 3 cars, we have interval is 12k for honda, 16k for wifi’s ford and 20k for my ford. All gdi cars, oil consumption 0.5L between oil changes on all 3 of them. Honda uses “only” 0w20 so its to expect for engine to consume, other two are 5w20 and 5w30 an or something like that.

You engine probably takes 10-30, put in 5-30 extended life mobil or castrol and youll gain on gas milage and its better for your engine itll clean all gunk inside. Plus youll be able to do at least double up on distance between oil changes. And preferably acdeklo oil filter.

Watch this. Finale, oil vs oil. I gues you could watch oil playoffs from beginning, definitely beter entertainment that watching some funny professional sport tems from Toronto.

Project Farm, oil competition.
https://youtu.be/TWuKvnCq1js

#69 the Jaguar on 07.18.21 at 10:06 am

As a special thank you to all the residents of Calgary and Alberta, Stampede officials are offering all guests the chance to visit the grounds, free of charge, on Sunday.
“This celebration is for Calgarians, and we would like to invite everyone to ride with us one more time on Sunday.”
From 10 a.m., guests can experience all the rides of the midway, taste all the unique foods and enjoy western music and dancing as well. To cap the night off, families will also be able to enjoy the spectacular fireworks show finale.—

“Those who say it can’t be done are usually interrupted by others doing it.” James Baldwin

#70 Ryan Lewenza on 07.18.21 at 10:06 am

Don in Windsor “ Some crow about the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Please note the average is a cooked average where they delete slow movers or bankrupt likely companies and promote the new fresh stars of the market. It is an average of specifically chosen companies, not a static list of companies. It is cooked.”

That’s why we invest in ETFs – you get index returns. – Ryan L

#71 the Jaguar on 07.18.21 at 10:09 am

Forgot this:

Do you love dogs? Then this is the show for you!

The Canine Athletes are an elite troupe of highly-trained pupper athletes who are paws-down the most lovable performers around. From agility poles and dock-diving, to frisbee and freestyle dancing, this action-packed show is sure to impress the whole family.

Daily shows at 1:30 p.m., 4:30 p.m., & 7:30 p.m.

New location for 2021: located in front of the Saddledome

#72 Ryan Lewenza on 07.18.21 at 10:18 am

Tyberious “ Several big names in finance are predicting market moves in the other direction Ryan.
I hate to choose sides so I’m gonna assume the markets are going sideways for the foreseeable future. It seems very unpopular these days to even hint at the possibility of a Bear Market. So lollipop and candy forever more…”

We’re overdue for a market pullback and it’s almost certain we’ll see a 5-10% correction over the next 12 months. Maybe it happens when the Fed announces its tapering its bond purchases. But I don’t see a 20%+ decline and I would see a correction as a buying opportunity. Bear markets are defined as a 20%+ decline and they mainly occur when we experience a recession, which I don’t see in the cards for some years. – Ryan L

#73 Bezengy on 07.18.21 at 10:35 am

All this talk recently about who should pay more tax. Here’s my shot at the deficit dilemma. Every person over the age of sixty five, who has net assets over one million, gets a mandatory CRA audit. If you can’t prove you legally obtained the money to pay for those assets, the “Ritchie Brothers” are called in immediately, and all proceeds are donated to the Trudeau dream team.

#74 Dr V on 07.18.21 at 10:59 am

67 Sail – yes, exactly that. Many people don’t understand that simple concept.

#75 IHCTD9 on 07.18.21 at 11:12 am

#62 Wrk.dover on 07.18.21 at 6:06 am
#157 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 2:59 pm

It’s also one of the most undesirable oil burners out there,
________________________________

And for good reason.

That’s a gas engine with diesel heads! Not many injector pumps left on RockAuto for that anchor/ mooring block.

A pre-vortec $1000 TBI Astro rated for/will pull 5500lbs and do 24MPG all day when it isn’t. Most definitely. S-10 too light on the back for a safe heavy tow.

The best way to cut fuel use is to reassess the distances you drive, and why, especially non work/school related.

I guess you shelved the gasifier pie in the sky.

I talked with my guy, he drives one of those extended cab gas driven girly trucks the terrorists on CNN prefer, even though he could pilfer diesel fuel often, when he had a diesel version. But, as I said, he drives gas, for all the right reasons. He knows. Cheaper bottom line, after all that foolish ‘but diesels run for ever’ nonsense. You can’t wear out an injected gas engine either.
——-

I see. Well, a 4.3 Astro Van ain’t getting 24 mpg (USG) every day, not a chance. Flat ground, tailwind, and trying real hard? Maybe. They’re rated at 20mpg hwy and 17 combined (USG) – pretty much exactly what I would have guessed, if I didn’t look it up.

Also a 6.2 is definitely not a SBC with diesel heads bolted on. Yes the block has a standard SBC bellhousing flange, and the motor mount locations are in the same spot, but not a single SBC part will bolt onto a 6.2. They are totally unrelated engines. The bottom end architecture of a SBC would never support the 6.2’s 21.5:1 compression ratio. Plenty enough parts available on eBay and kijiji – just where I like to shop!

Your bud doesn’t like diesels? That’s cool, but plenty do. A mint 30 year old Dodge with 4×4, 5 speed, and 5.9 Cummins runs 25 grand+, and that’s not because anyone has a gun pointed to their heads. There are many year diesels that I would not own, but a 80’s/90’s non-turbo IDI mechanical diesel like a 6.9, 7.3, 6.2, plus the turbo 6BT/4BT Cummins have a lot to offer a dude in year 2021.

If you want fact, the 6.2 is a mediocre diesel by any standard. But – they are light, simple, cheap to buy and own, and are virtually unbeatable on mpg. There are several guys in the US who have swapped these boat anchors into cars, and some are getting near 40 mpg (USG) on the highway in ideal circumstances. 35mpg hwy is easy with a 6.2 in a car. The 6.2 is an outstandingly fuel efficient engine.

I’m not out to roll coal and run 11’s in the quarter with a 7000 lb brick. I want easy, cheap, and efficient in a half ton, and there is no gasoline engine in existence that will beat a 6.2 for those requirements.

#76 FriedEggs on 07.18.21 at 11:20 am

Everything is fine – this fall season will be just great. Our world leaders have our best interest in mind, what can possibly go wrong.

He/Him/Help

#77 SoggyShorts on 07.18.21 at 11:57 am

#66 My Body My Choice on 07.18.21 at 9:35 am
#43 Soggy Shorts

I slandered the comment section of that article and with good reason, go check it out.

Of course, I believe in science, and I’m eager to read more on it but as for Malone, he seems to be a pretty huge attention seeker. Did you even look at the fact-checking I linked? Several false statements and others were misleading at best.

Just as it was misleading to declare him the inventor of the mRNA vaccine (which implies this specific vaccine made in 2020) when he was actually one of several scientists who worked on mRNA technology in the 80s.
It’s important to use some critical thinking and to dig maybe just a little deeper than an eye-catching headline. If you’re capable that is, otherwise feel free to just swallow anything that site puts out whole. Whatever blows your hair back.

#78 Dr V on 07.18.21 at 12:00 pm

73 bezengy – Sure. Audit the people who worked 40 odd years, saved and invested, and paid off their mortgage. A real make work project for the CRA, that will collect…..nothing.

I might be willing to offer T2 a deal though.

#79 G on 07.18.21 at 1:09 pm

Hi #73 Bezengy, re: net assets over one million, gets a mandatory CRA audit. If you can’t prove you legally obtained the money to pay for those assets,’…

I think you should start looking at it differently so you can take advantage for your own long term interest with compound growth. No one is going to do it for you.

You want to waste more taxes looking at all people over 65 that happened to start investing early, or built businesses that employed people, and saved to take advantage of compound growth for there own retirement and family long term interests.
The CRA already is looking at everyone’s taxes each year and if they find illegal funds I’m sure they take a closer look already.

You then want to give the ‘alleged illegally’ obtained money, because it’s all legal growth money they won’t find much at all. Maybe some but just thinking looking at everyone will cost way more than you’d ever find.
But feel free to send them any extra money you might have laying around if you think PMT can spend it better than you can, keep dreaming.

And why think give more to PMT is a good idea, really?
He thinks the budget will balance it’s self. That really worked great so far has it, even before the C19, not!

I suggest you take a clue that saved and find some work or a trade like everyone of the people that knows you will eventually want to retire and have something to live on. The sooner you start saving and investing the better off ‘You will be’ by age 65. Time will not stop for you either.

Most people with some money to retire on did so through had work all there lives, some took second jobs on weekend and night shifts, while paying taxes and raising families to help build the country up for everyone else including you, and investing some of it all the time.
Quit a few people may have even bought a home when they were young and it’s ‘legally’ now worth over a million all while paying taxes on it every year.

Don’t forget what inflation does either, it’s not necessary a good thing for the average person. So don’t keep the money under the mattress, inflation will just eat away at it.

The average person don’t need the tax man steeling there hard earned saved money they need to live on in retirement. Nor does anyone need the added stress of an CRA audit of there life savings for no good reason like you suggest.

Give your head a shake, and start investing sooner than later for your own self interest. And stop thinking it’s ok to take hard earned money from other law abiding hard working people that were sharp enough to save for retirement. Because it’s not ok, they worked hard for it.

What are you doing wrong now spending every cent think you won’t get old? If you are I have news for you.

Maybe if the Government stop speeding more than the available taxes and borrow even more from the bank and bond market at interest on the people/your kids credit card we might not be close to maxing out the card limit and need the whole next pay check just to cover the interest charges forgetting about paying down the balance.

Imagine if their was no debt because it was illegal for the PMT/Government to spend more than the taxes collected that year like most people need to do with there weekly pay. Imagine what you could spend the money/taxes on that is just going to pay the interest would do for people.
Maybe even reduce your income tax rate so you have more to save for yourself, for your retirement, Imagine.

If you still believe TPTB recently saying you will have nothing and be happy. Just see how that work out for you, I don’t think you will like it at all! So why are you still listening to them anyway? Start saving for yourself as soon as you start working.

#80 Tyberious on 07.18.21 at 5:46 pm

#72 Ryan Lewenza on 07.18.21 at 10:18 am

Tyberious “ Several big names in finance are predicting market moves in the other direction Ryan.
I hate to choose sides so I’m gonna assume the markets are going sideways for the foreseeable future. It seems very unpopular these days to even hint at the possibility of a Bear Market. So lollipop and candy forever more…”
————————————————————–
We’re overdue for a market pullback and it’s almost certain we’ll see a 5-10% correction over the next 12 months. Maybe it happens when the Fed announces its tapering its bond purchases. But I don’t see a 20%+ decline and I would see a correction as a buying opportunity. Bear markets are defined as a 20%+ decline and they mainly occur when we experience a recession, which I don’t see in the cards for some years. – Ryan L
*******

Fair enough, but…
Has anyone ever actually predicted a recession or a bear market? Or do these ‘just happen’, and in hindsight seemed obvious?
I don’t think anything in particular ‘triggered’ the 1929-32 bear market, nor the 1972-3 (era of the Nifty Fifty).
So, for this reason, I believe it’s wrong to think that we ‘need’ some kind of trigger or ‘reason’ – other than the extreme over-valuations. Just as in the RE market, there’s buyer fatigue – and buyers can become sellers pretty quick, especially the overly leveraged ones.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but I’m bracing for a lot more than 10% decline.

Thanks for the reply!
T

#81 Don on 07.19.21 at 10:34 am

Well, the sell-off has started!!!!