So over

News worth knowing in our Summer of Recovery:

The central bank (as forecast) squeezed off some stimulus yesterday. Weekly bond-buying will drop by a third. While nobody at your local double-double Timmie’s will know, or care, it’s a big deal. We’re now well on the road to the Bank of Canada pulling in its horns, retreating from the pandemic mode it’s been in since last April.

Buying bonds not only finances T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending, it also heaps more on the national debt and keeps interest rates suppressed (more demand for bonds = higher debt prices = lower yields). This third reduction in the program (known as QE, or quantitative easing) sharply reduces the CB’s role and paves the way for the next big move. That will be an increase in the benchmark rate next year. As mentioned here a few days ago, Mr. Market is pricing in four BoC jumps over the next 24 months. Hope your kid who just bought a house is doing the same.

Meanwhile, real estate continues to chill a little. Yesterday we told you CREA would today announce home prices increased 25% year/year in June. That happened. And here’s the significance – this is down 5% from March, for a decline of $37,000 (to an average of $679,000). Moreover sales have fallen every month since the late winter, when a certain pathetic blog told you we’d reached Peak House.

Even CREA admits it: “There isn’t the same level of competition among buyers we were seeing a few months ago,” says boss Cliff Stevenson. It’s also interesting Toronto and Vancouver are frostier than the hinterland, and that prices have been coming off even as listings run thin. Huh? So what’s going on??

Two overriding reasons. First, we’re all getting dosed. Three-quarters of the herd’s had one shot and half is fully juiced. That means the economy is reopening fast. Instead of nesting, cocooning, decorating, sheltering and obsessing over property people are shopping, travelling, socializing and (gasp) going back to work. We always knew the pandemic would be temporary. And it will soon become very clear the greatest effect it had on our financial lives – a real estate bubble of generational proportion – was the same.

Second, of course, is price. The average cost of a house nationally at $679,000 is outrageous. It’s unaffordable. The median after-tax household income in Canada is $62,900. So at ten times income, real estate’s a stretch. As RBC told us a week ago, never in the last four decades – even with mortgage rates under 2% – has a home been this unaffordable. In short, we’ve hit a wall. Most of the people who can afford one have bought. The folks crazy enough to take on debt equal to 500% of their incomes have done so. More surprises will be coming.

Finally, have you checked out lumber lately?

A few months ago two-by-fours were emblematic of a busted supply chain and pandemic-caused inflationary spiral that not only jacked new house prices but posed a big economic threat. Well, no more.

Lumber prices are crashing epically. Down five to seven per cent a week. In fact, we’re now off 50% from just a month ago. Way below the peak, set in May. The excess of 2021 has been peeled back. Looks like we’re quickly on our way to pre-pandemic prices, tough news for people who just gave their builder another cheque for twenty or thirty grand for sticks and plywood.

What happened?

The pandemic is over. Mills are in production again. Workers are back in the forests, harvesting. The transportation grid is functioning. The real estate-nesting-backyard-DIY-deck-building thing is fizzing, restaurant partitions and hasty patios are done and mass inoculation means (as mentioned above) we’re back doing normal things.

Once again, the crescendo of craziness came in late winter. That’s when the price of lumber was 120% higher than a year earlier, construction projects halted for lack of supply and the Third Wave was building. The real estate bubble caused a massive surge in demand and the system buckled.

That was then. This is now. Urban flight has ended. The property mania is subsiding. Pfizer and Moderna changed everything. The reopening trade is here. Mr. Market saw that coming. And so did we.

About the picture: “Thanks to you and your team for all the work that is put into thegreaterfool…you are a national treasure!” says Sean, in a fine MSU. “I am answering the call; please see a recent picture of our 10week-old Great Pyrenees “T” (not specifically named after you, but feel free to take credit). She enjoys belly rubs (for 8 seconds…no more, no less), cuddles, and crawling behind the hedge when I take my eyes off her for one second. WFH is a mixed bag in BC’s capital city; for my organization (20k+ consulting professionals across the globe) we are offering “work from home” flexibility, for now. Clear lines have been drawn between those above and below the age of 40 (I think you know what option was voted for on either side of this age). One worry held by leadership was that we would lose younger staff to the competition by not offering the WFH option. So, onward with daily staff “teams” meetings and onboarding new staff virtually. At least delivery of a laptop is taking less time now.”

160 comments ↓

#1 We will Rock you! on 07.15.21 at 2:17 pm

Nothing really matters, Anyone can see,
Nothing really matters,
Nothing really matters to me
Any way the wind blows…

The older I get, the more I realize how spot on those lyrics are.

#2 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.15.21 at 2:19 pm

#68 Faron from yesterday.

Not sure who Bdwy is but I only post under one name.

I also was not picking on your Institute or whatever it is. What matters in this case is the Meteorology. And there dern well is downslope compressional enhancement occurring on top of the synoptic subsidence. Cliff Mass has a nice write up on the event and related processes (and how these events are process driven and not climate driven):

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/was-global-warming-cause-of-great.html?m=1

My main point was and is summed up very well by Dr Koonin and still stands. Anthropogenic contribution to climate is vastly, vastly overstated, such that we have scared multiple generations with way out-of-proportion fears, and too many are actively seeking to de-grow our standard of living for no real effect, other than suffering which will be borne disproportionately by poor people.

Smug and arrogant Climate Bully ad hominin name calling, and odd references to Carnaval apparatus cannot change that.

Again, Dr Koonin:

https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/03/20/watch-former-obama-biden-federal-scientist-dr-steve-koonin-declares-his-climate-dissent-served-as-former-energy-dept-undersecretary/

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 2:29 pm

#124 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 1:49 pm
#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 11:12 am

We are cancelling our yearly trips to China and Europe again. Too much uncertainty.

Staycation again.

——-

That’s funny. Our Slovakian friends whose wedding we couldn’t attend last year have now been traveling, hiking and camping throughout the US west for the last couple of weeks. Too much hassle for us to join them or for them to come here.
—————————-
They just picked the worst time.
Infections going up again in the States.
Because ze Amis won’t get jabbed.
Heatwave all over the West.
If the virus does not get them, wildfires could.
My Austrian relatives do a Staycation in Slovenia and Croatia.
I’m envious.

#4 TurnerNation on 07.15.21 at 2:30 pm

Why I call them the Economic Lockdowns:

.Several of Doug Ford’s key pandemic decisions were swayed by business interests, Star analysis suggests(thestar.com)

.Trudeau stresses caution after state legislators demand immediate U.S.-Canada border reopening(politico.com)

— Keep an eye on your food supply. The control over our Travel/Movements did this. With a stroke of a pen – the world is re-made. In the Former First World Countries.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/14/devastating-crops-left-to-rot-in-england-as-brexit-begins-to-bite
Fruit and vegetables are being left to rot in England as Brexit deters migrants from taking up picking jobs.
Farmers have told Euronews that restrictions to freedom of movement have had a “devastating” impact”


–Life in Kanada.

.Vancouver City councillor handing out free illegal street drugs. I guess people might re-sell it to get cash? How to make money in Kanada.

https://twitter.com/JeanSwanson_/status/1415426476124491776?
“I got to hand out safe drugs today with VANDU And DULF. 6 deaths a day from poison drugs is way too many. 1 is too many. Safe supply now !!”

–But the hospital capacity guys! How’s it looking? We shut down to save Scarce capacity.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-city-council-consultation-new-name-dundas-street-1.6103260
“Cost of renaming estimated to be up to $6.3M”

—————

– Australia is the test zone for the permanant lockdowns, the anti-human system.
As always flip what our global rulers tell us, 180 degrees to make sense.
Seen elsewhere: “It’s called “Lockdown” because if it was called “Lockup” it would be too obvious”

.Australia extends Sydney lockdown by two weeks as Covid-19 outbreak nears 900 infections (independent.ie)
.Restrictions extended in south-east Queensland after three local COVID-19 cases detected
.Fathers ‘robbed of precious moments’ after being banned from visiting newborns in hospital (abc.net.au)

#5 Joe Schmoe on 07.15.21 at 2:30 pm

WFH will die. Flexibility may be prevalent, but 75% of the decision making will occur as it used to…in the office.

People clinging to home are realizing they are out of the know in my office. I have not made anyone come back yet, but the people squawking about no one including them on decisions are quickly figuring it out.

It’s not my job as a leader to accommodate those who are trying to turn a temporary situation into long term comfort. We will move on without you.

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 2:34 pm

#1 Purchase Regret
The Climate Change denier train has long left Central Station.
Time to get another hobby.

#7 A01 on 07.15.21 at 2:43 pm

Garth, what’s your predication of all the people that suddenly needed a cottage? I’m assuming most were financed by LOC on their principle residence. Wouldn’t we see the biggest price drops in these regions?

Who ‘suddenly’ needs a cottage? – Garth

#8 VGRO and chill on 07.15.21 at 2:44 pm

“Buying bonds not only finances T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

It is really disingenuous of you to keep phrasing this like this, considering we had a once in a 100 year global pandemic this spending went towards.

Do you seriously think your readers are so dumb to not see through this?

“In its fiscal monitor, the IMF estimates the level of net borrowing (deficits)—across all levels of government—as a share of the economy for 35 high-income countries in 2020. Among this group, Canada has the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio at 19.9%. To put this in perspective, Canada’s net borrowing is more than double the ratio of Germany and triple that of Sweden and Ireland. Furthermore, Canada ranks higher than the United States (18.7%), United Kingdom (16.4%) and is almost double that of Australia (10.1%), which has a similar economy to Canada.” – Garth

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 2:46 pm

Interest rates….”Bang Zoom. To the moon!”

#10 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 2:55 pm

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 2:29 pm
#124 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 1:49 pm

———

That’s funny. Our Slovakian friends whose wedding we couldn’t attend last year have now been traveling, hiking and camping throughout the US west for the last couple of weeks. Too much hassle for us to join them or for them to come here.

———

They just picked the worst time.
Infections going up again in the States.
Because ze Amis won’t get jabbed.
Heatwave all over the West.
If the virus does not get them, wildfires could.
My Austrian relatives do a Staycation in Slovenia and Croatia.
I’m envious.

———

I will let Juraj and Tatiana know they should not be enjoying themselves as much as it appears they are.

Best video so far: Juraj walking toward a marmot, and in strong Slovak accent: ‘Sir? Sir? I would like to speak with you about our lord and saviour Jesus Christ. Where are you going, sir? Don’t run away. Come back!’.

#11 alexinvestor on 07.15.21 at 2:56 pm

If inflation is suddenly tamed due to supply constraints going away, there is less pressure on the BOC to raise rates. The BOC has been pretty clear that they will raise rates only when the economy and employment has recovered.

Of course, if there’s a housing crash when rates are raised which then hamstrings the economy … it’s back to lower rates again.

#12 baloney Sandwitch on 07.15.21 at 2:59 pm

Looks like the supply of greater fools in running thin.

Opening week at wife’s salon business was great – but after 2 weeks everything is normalizing. Turns out you can’t store haircuts and facials. Also, beauty standards have gone down during covid.

#13 Toronto manz on 07.15.21 at 3:00 pm

I dislike entitled WFH employees who are vacationing in different time zones, which causes Canadians to have to contact them at unholy hours.

#14 Damifino on 07.15.21 at 3:11 pm

#6 Ponzius Pilatus

The Climate Change denier train has long left Central Station. Time to get another hobby.
——————————–

Time to move beyond the term “denier” and its cruel associations. It’s a cynical and unnecessary bush to be painting with that weakens the case considerably.

#15 45north on 07.15.21 at 3:19 pm

Repurchase Disagreement My main point was and is summed up very well by Dr Koonin and still stands. Anthropogenic contribution to climate is vastly, vastly overstated, such that we have scared multiple generations with way out-of-proportion fears, and too many are actively seeking to de-grow our standard of living for no real effect, other than suffering which will be borne disproportionately by poor people.

yep

#16 Habitt on 07.15.21 at 3:24 pm

#5 Joe Schmoe long term comfort eh? Decisions will always be made by the few. Is there a better option than filling office towers? Where is millennial realist lol

#17 Flop… on 07.15.21 at 3:24 pm

14 Damifino on 07.15.21 at 3:11 pm

Time to move beyond the term “denier” and its cruel associations. It’s a cynical and unnecessary bush to be painting with that weakens the case considerably.

////////////////////

Well,if people are going to start painting with bushes, then I guess it’s time I get a little interested in climate change…

M47BC

#18 Fran on 07.15.21 at 3:44 pm

TurnerNation how are you going to survive the coming communist regime worldwide.

#19 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 3:44 pm

#2 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.15.21 at 2:19 pm

It’s one thing to site 2 links from the same source denying BC’s heat wave as linked to climate change. It’s quite another to expect us to believe the science. Your first link from Dr. Koonin was it, suggests that you can crank up the humidity 3x and this won’t have an effect on heat waves. In the real world, when the earth cranks up humidity, clouds form and it rains. See the percentages of humidity around the earth as we speak?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#pwtr

Now see the precipitation/clouds around the world?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#prcp-tcld-topo

Do you see the correlation and how utterly foolish it is to declare that humidity or drought doesn’t have anything to do with lessening the effects of heatwaves? For the lamen out there, the true cause and this is related to climate change, is jet streams that are slower (it’s what a lower temperature gradient in the Arctic does) and getting stuck in patterns that favor intense buildups of high pressure systems that lead to the modern era unprecedented heat dome we experienced over the west coast into southern BC this summer. This is why, in the real world, the guys and gals at the weather network say climate change has its finger prints all over it:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/tracking-climate-changes-impact-on-pacific-northwests-devastating-heat-wave

Just for the record, Dr. Steven Koonin was the chief scientist at BP before being appointed to run the 2nd Under secretary for the U.S. department of energy for the Obama administration for a couple years beginning in 2009. Not so incidentally, the U.S. department of energy is about nuclear energy, having nothing to do with O & G or climate change. Your first link suggests Koonin is a novice when it comes to the science of climate change. The link below offers a far greater criticism of Koonin’s “science”. I suggest you read it if you wish to further waste everyone’s time:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/a-critical-review-of-steven-koonins-unsettled/

#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm

If you’d heard only that a scientist who served in the Trump administration and now regularly appears on Fox News and other conservative media thinks climate change is a hoax, you’d roll your eyes and move on. But if you heard that someone associated with former President Barack Obama’s Democratic administration was calling the climate science consensus a conspiracy, the novelty of the messenger might make you take it a little more seriously.

The latter is what Steve Koonin is using to sell his new book, which is being billed as the revelation of an “Obama scientist” who wants you to think that climate change isn’t a big deal. But unfortunately, climate change is real, is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, and is already hurting people all over the world, including here in the United States.

For example, a study published recently found that because climate change has caused sea levels to rise, Superstorm Sandy flooded an additional 36,000 homes, impacting 71,000 people who would’ve been safe otherwise, and caused $8 billion in additional damage.
How many people are suffering, and paying in health care costs because of fossil fuels isn’t the kind of thing Steve Koonin thinks you should worry about, though. That’s because his argument in 2021 is as scientifically empty as it was in 2013, when the American Physical Society allowed him to lead a review of their climate consensus statement. He assembled a team of his own to challenge mainstream scientists, and in January of 2014 held a debate for the scientific society. You can even read the 573-page transcript of the full-day debate. (Spoiler alert: the APS was not swayed by denial.) But instead of accepting that his idiosyncratic view of climate science was considered wrong by climate scientists, Koonin resigned from the process.
He evidently doesn’t need to win a debate, he just needs to make it seem like there is one.

Read full article here: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/that-obama-scientist-climate-skeptic-youve-been-hearing-about/

#21 G on 07.15.21 at 3:47 pm

Toronto city council votes to rename Dundas Street
“The city will hold a public consultation to find a new name for the street and plans to find room in its budget to support people and businesses affected by the change.”

Since I never associated the name with anyone my first chose for new name and thinking of saving tax money, I’d name it ‘Dundas St’.,
second choice “Remember history or repeat it’.

#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

#23 James on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

#4 TurnerNation on 07.15.21 at 2:30 pm

Why I call them the Economic Lockdowns:

.Several of Doug Ford’s key pandemic decisions were swayed by business interests, Star analysis suggests(thestar.com)

.Trudeau stresses caution after state legislators demand immediate U.S.-Canada border reopening(politico.com)

— Keep an eye on your food supply. The control over our Travel/Movements did this. With a stroke of a pen – the world is re-made. In the Former First World Countries.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/14/devastating-crops-left-to-rot-in-england-as-brexit-begins-to-bite
Fruit and vegetables are being left to rot in England as Brexit deters migrants from taking up picking jobs.
Farmers have told Euronews that restrictions to freedom of movement have had a “devastating” impact”


–Life in Kanada.

.Vancouver City councillor handing out free illegal street drugs. I guess people might re-sell it to get cash? How to make money in Kanada.

https://twitter.com/JeanSwanson_/status/1415426476124491776?
“I got to hand out safe drugs today with VANDU And DULF. 6 deaths a day from poison drugs is way too many. 1 is too many. Safe supply now !!”

–But the hospital capacity guys! How’s it looking? We shut down to save Scarce capacity.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-city-council-consultation-new-name-dundas-street-1.6103260
“Cost of renaming estimated to be up to $6.3M”

—————

– Australia is the test zone for the permanant lockdowns, the anti-human system.
As always flip what our global rulers tell us, 180 degrees to make sense.
Seen elsewhere: “It’s called “Lockdown” because if it was called “Lockup” it would be too obvious”

.Australia extends Sydney lockdown by two weeks as Covid-19 outbreak nears 900 infections (independent.ie)
.Restrictions extended in south-east Queensland after three local COVID-19 cases detected
.Fathers ‘robbed of precious moments’ after being banned from visiting newborns in hospital (abc.net.au)
___________________________________________
.Trudeau stresses caution after state legislators demand immediate U.S.-Canada border reopening(politico.com)

Trudeau is a putz he is “a any way the wind blows temperament person,” if the people want the border open he will open it. If they want to keep it closed he will try to keep it closed. He has already moved the goalpost on that issue. He is a spinless PM that makes us the laughing joke of the world. So just check the poles and he will bend over for any vote.

#24 Don Guillermo on 07.15.21 at 3:56 pm

#14 Damifino on 07.15.21 at 3:11 pm
#6 Ponzius Pilatus

The Climate Change denier train has long left Central Station. Time to get another hobby.
——————————–

Time to move beyond the term “denier” and its cruel associations. It’s a cynical and unnecessary bush to be painting with that weakens the case considerably

***********************************
Maybe a better approach would be our local climate expert(s) read through the post that was linked by #2 RD and debunk where appropriate rather than dismiss as denier.

#25 the jaguar on 07.15.21 at 3:58 pm

@ #5 joe schmoe. Perfectly stated. Bless Joe Schmoe.

#26 Soviet Capitalist on 07.15.21 at 4:00 pm

Garth, who would you recommend voting for in the coming election?
Usually, my preference is for conservatives, but it sounds like they have the same lunatic program as the liberals, with differences only in minor details. NDP appears to be living in a disconnected reality.
Seems like it’s not even worth showing up at the polls.

#27 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:08 pm

Folks who bought a house in the last 8 months may rue the day.

We’ll see if the BoC will actually run the gauntlet going forward this time, they’ve been a little delicate since the GFC.

If not, then said folks will be rich instead.

#28 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:13 pm

#12 baloney Sandwitch on 07.15.21 at 2:59 pm
Looks like the supply of greater fools in running thin.

Opening week at wife’s salon business was great – but after 2 weeks everything is normalizing. Turns out you can’t store haircuts and facials. Also, beauty standards have gone down during covid.
——

I’ve been storing up a beard trim for a long time now. Strangely, its beauty has only increased since. Win-win!

#29 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:24 pm

#26 Soviet Capitalist on 07.15.21 at 4:00 pm
Garth, who would you recommend voting for in the coming election?
Usually, my preference is for conservatives, but it sounds like they have the same lunatic program as the liberals, with differences only in minor details. NDP appears to be living in a disconnected reality.
Seems like it’s not even worth showing up at the polls.
———

I hear you comrade. I’m likely going to vote for otoole only because he wants to defund the CBC, everything else pretty much totals the same. Jag is living in some other galaxy, and the Greens are having an internal sandbox fight that will likely see them lose their last two remaining seats.

Pretty pathetic situation, no middle road to take.

#30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm

#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

——————————————————-

Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites. I was skeptical when I first heard about it from the Earth Summit in Rio in ’92, and ever more so now.

A simple look at who is promoting the scam and who profits tells you all you need to know. If the rest of the sheeple want to accept a much lower standard of living and convenience, they can do so, but I’m not joining them.

BTW, I make good money selling electrical equipment to grid scale battery energy storage projects. If they want to buy, the least I can do is sell, and business is brisk these days. Same thing with the software and controls we’re working on for higher levels of wind and solar integration, and large scale EV charging for bus & truck fleets.

Find a single reputable scientist who can put serious credentials behind the idea that carbon dioxide is a pollutant, and is directly related to the weather. It’s easy to find dozens of scientist who will put their names behind tearing the CO2 warmongers to shreds.

Try spending all day in a greenhouse at 1000PPM of CO2, no problem, many people do it all day.

Weather changes, always has, always will. It’s driven by the sun, whose energy output is variable, along with earth’s orbit.

#31 Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 4:33 pm

“T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

I disagree. It was not quixotic.
It was responsible, appropriate, and prudent.

Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.

#32 TurnerNation on 07.15.21 at 4:38 pm

#18 Fran on 07.15.21 at 3:44 pm

This weblog told us how. Life quietly among the masses. Do not raise the attention of the Block Captain in your prefecture.
Always pay dues to The Party on time.
Concede a small nod as you walk by murals of The Glorious Leader.

– US long bonds staging bit of a comeback here:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1


–Dolce…Italy. You just can’t win in this “New System”. Yes that Economist magazine. They are expert in many things:

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1415071064636469255
The Economist @TheEconomist
The most striking aspect of Italy’s 26-man squad before it took to the pitch was that, alone among the main contenders, it did not include a single player considered as being of colour

— Chaos is a main goal of this New System. Australia getting it bad why? Test zone?

“Melbourne has seen “chaos” just hours before the state plunged into its fifth lockdown as hundreds of protesters took to the streets in anger.
Residents marched in the CBD calling for an end to restrictions just hours after premier Daniel Andrews announced the state will enter a five-day snap lockdown from midnight.
Currently the state has 18 cases while at least 6500 residents have been forced into isolation as close contacts. The state’s Department of Health announced new exposure sites overnight as the protesters filled Melbourne’s CBD to oppose the new lockdown rules at around 7pm.” (www.news.com.au)

#33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm

#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm
—-

So what’s the solution? Will a 100% global elimination of fossil fuel use stop the annual .140” rise in sea levels? How long would it take to eliminate 100% of ff use? Will people accept big changes in their standard of living for this cause? Will China/India and all the other mass polluters also eliminate ff usage?

What happens if (when) the answer is “there is no effective solution”?

#34 wallflower on 07.15.21 at 4:43 pm

oh dear
speckled doogie bellies melt me

#35 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:45 pm

#33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm
—-

So what’s the solution?
===============

The hell I know. All I know is we are screwed if we keep on the way we are. And denying we have created a problem is not going to solve it.

#36 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:47 pm

#30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm
#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

——————————————————-

Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites
===================

Oh FFS.

#37 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 4:55 pm

What’s old is new again. This article gives a good summary for eco-destruction and the knock-on effects. We’ll know things may have gone too far when the cannibalism starts.

https://www.dw.com/en/bringing-the-trees-back-to-easter-island/a-18366801#:~:text=Scientists%20have%20proven%20that%20the,fires%20to%20burn%20the%20dead.

In truth, all we need is Thanos. But then everyone would scream, cry and whine about that as well. Sheesh.

#38 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:58 pm

#30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm
#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

——————————————————-

Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites
====================

The scam is man-made climate change denialism. And there are “elites” who profit from continuing to deny its existence.

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 4:59 pm

@#34 wallflower
“oh dear
speckled doogie bellies melt me”

++++

…and I thought I had issues

#40 Blobby on 07.15.21 at 5:03 pm

As someone who earns over $200k+ a year, with a partner who earns 80k

I wonder who these people are who are buying these properties.. Especially looking at the average wage in Canada?

Utter nonsense, unless I guess you do nothing with your life, and spend every day looking at the 4 walls you bought?

#41 Jane24 on 07.15.21 at 5:07 pm

52,000 new Covid cases in the UK 4th wave during the last 24 hours. That is in a single day! 47% of infections in folk who are already vaccinated. Makes you think, doesn’t it. Maybe the shots only have a lifespan of a few months effectiveness.

This thing still has legs to run. Nothing is over. Expect the same in Canada in two or three months time.

#42 BoJo the British PM clown IN CHIEF on 07.15.21 at 5:10 pm

DELETED

#43 Mean Nuclear Guy on 07.15.21 at 5:13 pm

I’m all in favour of pushing for green energy, specifically Gen 4 Nuclear.

If the climate hysterics had not been so anti-science for the last 50 years I might even read one of the articles they post endlessly.

But they lost all credibility long ago.

Nobody denies climate change. They deny the absurd predictions of imminent disaster and the even more absurd ‘solutions’ put forth, which generally involve transferring billions from developed nations which are doing a great job reducing pollution, to our economic competitors who are doing nothing.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 5:13 pm

#10 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 2:55 pm
#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 2:29 pm
#124 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 1:49 pm

———

That’s funny. Our Slovakian friends whose wedding we couldn’t attend last year have now been traveling, hiking and camping throughout the US west for the last couple of weeks. Too much hassle for us to join them or for them to come here.

———

They just picked the worst time.
Infections going up again in the States.
Because ze Amis won’t get jabbed.
Heatwave all over the West.
If the virus does not get them, wildfires could.
My Austrian relatives do a Staycation in Slovenia and Croatia.
I’m envious.

———

I will let Juraj and Tatiana know they should not be enjoying themselves as much as it appears they are.

Best video so far: Juraj walking toward a marmot, and in strong Slovak accent: ‘Sir? Sir? I would like to speak with you about our lord and saviour Jesus Christ. Where are you going, sir? Don’t run away. Come back!’.
————
Sailo man,
Your obvious talents are wasted on this blog.
Follow Faron and get an expert guest spot on TeeVee.
Suggested topic:
Investing in Hawaiin Whale Art with NO Money Down.

#45 Adam Smith on 07.15.21 at 5:13 pm

#8 VGRO and chill on 07.15.21 at 2:44 pm

“Buying bonds not only finances T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

It is really disingenuous of you to keep phrasing this like this, considering we had a once in a 100 year global pandemic this spending went towards.

Do you seriously think your readers are so dumb to not see through this?

“In its fiscal monitor, the IMF estimates the level of net borrowing (deficits)—across all levels of government—as a share of the economy for 35 high-income countries in 2020. Among this group, Canada has the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio at 19.9%. To put this in perspective, Canada’s net borrowing is more than double the ratio of Germany and triple that of Sweden and Ireland. Furthermore, Canada ranks higher than the United States (18.7%), United Kingdom (16.4%) and is almost double that of Australia (10.1%), which has a similar economy to Canada.” – Garth

__________

Boosh, nailed it Garth.

VGRO, we have a pretty good country here that I am trying to raise a family in and financially illiterate people like yourself are screwing over my children by not understanding that debt is real and has consequences for our options and the options of our kids.

Stop being selfish and knock it off.

#46 SoggyShorts on 07.15.21 at 5:14 pm

#116 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 12:24 pm
#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:42 am
Gives credence to the theory that Faron and Sailo are the same person.
——-
Would that be…. Sail Far?

***********************

First of all your Hollywood couple name would certainly either be SailOn or FarAway and secondly just because there are some TV clips out there doesn’t make me believe that any of you blog dogs actually exist.

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 5:15 pm

@#37 Sail Away

Hmmm
Eucalyptus mint jelly + cannibalism…..
“Hand me some “Moa” sauce please….

#48 Dolce Vita on 07.15.21 at 5:18 pm

I’m optimistic for Canada vs. Delta but I worry Canada has dropped the testing ball. So Garth I do not believe it is so over yet for Canada.

100% that want to be vaxd will be vaxd by Labour Day, 12+ yrs old = excellent.

Still there will be cases even though the vax lowers Delta infection and hospitalization rates, UK data:

Infection Reduction
1 dose 32-38%
2 doses 78-80%

Hospitalization Reduction
1 dose 69-88%
2 doses 91-98%

Little or no deaths reported 2 doses vaxd.

33.2M Cdns 12+

—–

I worry that Canada (and the US) is not testing enough to find Delta cases…testing has dropped substantially (don’t test, don’t count mentality):

https://i.imgur.com/sdpcV1C.png

Also, Canada lags Europe by 1-2 months in peak cases:

https://i.imgur.com/sJc3uml.png

————–

Even if Delta hits Canada, pretty sure it will, it will not be as bad as it was last year as in few deaths.

Enjoy the Aug Long Weekend Canada and hopefully the Labour Day weekend as well. After that, probably expect Delta cases and hospitalizations to increase.

How bad? Nobody knows. Maybe not bad at all. Now wouldn’t that be nice.

#49 kommykim on 07.15.21 at 5:25 pm

RE: #30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm
Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites. I was skeptical when I first heard about it from the Earth Summit in Rio in ’92, and ever more so now.

A simple look at who is promoting the scam and who profits tells you all you need to know.

=======================================

Yea, because the trillion dollar oil industry doesn’t spend a red cent trying to deny there’s a problem…

#50 UCC on 07.15.21 at 5:30 pm

#38 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:58 pm
#30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm
#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

——————————————————-

Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites
====================

The scam is man-made climate change denialism. And there are “elites” who profit from continuing to deny its existence.

————

Canada has near zero affect on world climate change. We could all sit in igloos freezing and starving, but we would see zero effect. Denying ourselves energy is simply self-flagellation to the cult of global warming.

Client evangelicals should all go to China and get them to stop using energy. Good luck with that….

#51 Faron on 07.15.21 at 5:31 pm

#2 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.15.21 at 2:19 pm
#68 Faron from yesterday

Cliff and I talked over the phone as the event unfolded and we continue to have a cordial argument about the event. The meteorology is fascinating. If you agree with his stance that non peer reviewed science shouldn’t be given a spot light then you have to ignore his blog as well and wait until the papers come out. However, I’m gathering that you have found a view you like and are running with it which exposes your bias.

Cliff’s skills as a meteorologist, especially in understanding our part of the world are second to none. He literally wrote the book on it. His approach to climatology and climate change is often biased and very flawed in my and others’ scientific understanding.

I invite you to read our paper and compare how we handle uncertainty and where we draw the lines of speculation and compare that to Cliff’s analysis, lack of quantification, and lack of expression of uncertainty. The difference illuminates that seen between a biased stance (his) and a report of findings (ours).

I’ll grant him and you that a media campaign on the back of a not-yet-peer-reviewed analysis is not desirable. But, our methods are solid and the impact of the event numbers in hundreds (at least) of human lives and millions if not billions in crop losses and lost economic activity. We are trying to wake you up!

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 5:32 pm

#120 IHTCD9

Maybe Canada is heading towards being the first effective Matriarchy?
——————-
Happy to report that in my and in my acquaintances’ households Matriarchy is already the rule.
If it’s effective though, is subject to who you ask.

#53 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 5:34 pm

#35 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:45 pm
#33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm
—-

So what’s the solution?
===============

The hell I know. All I know is we are screwed if we keep on the way we are. And denying we have created a problem is not going to solve it.
——-

That’s the problem, too many people and no global consensus, means no effective action can be taken.

I think we’ll adapt just fine. It’s moving slow, and not just us, but whole of life on earth will accommodate the changes just as they have done before. We’ll pay whatever cost there is due to no choice but to do so.

If you dropped modern humans into the Mesozoic age with 1800ppm c02 concentrations and anoxic Oceans, I’d bet they’d get by just as well as all the other things running around at that time – probably better in fact.

At this point, it’s better to prepare, rather than just keep on talking about how to stop it (impossible).

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 5:41 pm

#41 Jane24 on 07.15.21 at 5:07 pm
52,000 new Covid cases in the UK 4th wave during the last 24 hours. That is in a single day! 47% of infections in folk who are already vaccinated. Makes you think, doesn’t it. Maybe the shots only have a lifespan of a few months effectiveness.

This thing still has legs to run. Nothing is over. Expect the same in Canada in two or three months time.
————————
Here in Beautiful British Columbia, infections are very low, and no deaths reported for the last 6 days.
But, I agree it ain’t over ’till it’s over.
Our household, even my children, are fully vaxed.
But we still wear the masks in public.
Better safe, than sorry.

#55 Faron on 07.15.21 at 5:54 pm

#46 SoggyShorts on 07.15.21 at 5:14 pm
#116 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 12:24 pm
#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:42 am

Ha. It’s unfortunate that a bit of kindness and the acknowledgement of it is ridiculed.

#35 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:45 pm
#33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm

Well, when this problem was made clear in the 1990s and when even George Bush Sr. was on board, we had a much better chance of a low impact phase-in. Continued ostriching isn’t going to help — there’s enough fossil fuel to make 1/3 of the US lethal to mammals (highly certain). Imagine living in a place where all mammalian wildlife was gone?

There is plenty (understatement of the year) of excess wealth (private and corporate) in the world to impart massive improvements. There seems to be no political will or ability to access it.

A large and globally synchronous carbon tax whose revenues went into climate mitigation and adaptation programs would be a start by disincentivising CO2 production without making it illegal and by generating revenue.

Sea level’s gonna be a problem. That ball is rolling and may not stop for a looong time. Again, not a valid reason to ignore and thereby further worsen things.

Of course, there will be opportunities in any of this. Position wisely.

#56 BofC on 07.15.21 at 6:08 pm

Interest Rate Hikes?!….LMFAO!!!! It will never happen! They’ve been saying that for 10 years and they’ve done nothing but reduced them almost to zero!

Wait a few years and they’ll find another reason why they have to go down to 0% or less!

It’s a scare tactic by the BoC to ensure peoples assets are wiped out with the 20% or more inflation we’re experiencing right NWO…i mean NOW!

#57 Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 6:11 pm

“Do you seriously think your readers are so dumb to not see through this?”

Unfortunately some are.
They might not realize some of the countries with lower debt levels had over taxed their people and were running a surplus before the pandemic.

But that aside, using IMF numbers for a rebuttal hardly proves anything, given their history and agenda.

Please feel free to correct the IMF stats. My research shows them to be accurate. – Garth

#58 Faron on 07.15.21 at 6:12 pm

#119 Stoph on 07.15.21 at 12:53 pm

Thanks! Great advice.

I have a ways to go. My blinking and wandering eyes are a nervous tic going waaaay back. Still, stutterers learn to control their speaking, so I should be able to correct my tics.

#59 kommykim on 07.15.21 at 6:16 pm

RE: #33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
Will people accept big changes in their standard of living for this cause?

=======================================

You’ve hit the nail on the head about why nothing will be done about it until it is too late. The voter would reject any politician who actually did anything sufficient to make a difference. We see this with their promises: I don’t know how many times I’ve heard politicians promise some decades away emissions target knowing full well that they won’t be in power when that target is missed once again.

#60 Penny Henny on 07.15.21 at 6:16 pm

#116 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 12:24 pm
#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:42 am

Gives credence to the theory that Faron and Sailo are the same person.

——-

Would that be…. Sail Far?

////////////////

I think most here would prefer Far Away

#61 kommykim on 07.15.21 at 6:21 pm

RE: #50 UCC on 07.15.21 at 5:30 pm
Canada has near zero affect on world climate change.

=======================================

You’re like the lemming waiting for the one in front of him to stop first.

#62 Cici on 07.15.21 at 6:22 pm

#11 alexinvestor on 07.15.21 at 2:56 pm
If inflation is suddenly tamed due to supply constraints going away, there is less pressure on the BOC to raise rates. The BOC has been pretty clear that they will raise rates only when the economy and employment has recovered.

Of course, if there’s a housing crash when rates are raised which then hamstrings the economy … it’s back to lower rates again.

___________________________________________

Are you sure about that? I thought the BoC had been saying inflation was transitory and that they’d be raising rates as soon as inflation went back to their 2% CPI inflation target? Which they expect will happen in mid 2022.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/07/fad-press-release-2021-07-14/

“CPI inflation was 3.6 percent in May, boosted by temporary factors that include base-year effects and stronger gasoline prices, as well as pandemic-related bottlenecks as economies re-open. Core measures of inflation have also risen but by less than the CPI. In some high-contact services, demand is rebounding faster than supply, pushing up prices from low levels. Transitory supply constraints in shipping and value chain disruptions for semiconductors are also translating into higher prices for cars and some other goods. With higher gasoline prices and on-going supply bottlenecks, inflation is likely to remain above 3 percent through the second half of this year and ease back toward 2 percent in 2022, as short-run imbalances diminish and the considerable overall slack in the economy pulls inflation lower. The factors pushing up inflation are transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and will be monitored closely.”

#63 Trojan House on 07.15.21 at 6:22 pm

At one point in the Earth’s 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) year history, there was only one continent. Over billions of years that continent separated into what we have today. At one point in Earth’s 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) year history, there were dinosaurs roaming it because the climate allowed for these creatures. At one point in Earth’s 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) year history, there were glaciers covering most of it. At one point in the Earth’s 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) year history those glaciers receded to what we have today. At one point in the Earth’s 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) year history it allowed for the creation of human beings.

Along comes the industrial revolution in the 19th century and after 200 years or so man has made the climate change so significantly that we have outdone what the Earth has done in 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) years. After 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) man, who has been living on the Earth for only a tiny fraction of its time, decides we’ve created the problem as to why the Earth is changing, because, you know, the Earth’s climate has never changed in 4.5 billion (with a ‘b’) years.

#64 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 6:30 pm

Lets look at U.S. 10 year GG bonds for a moment and click onto the “all” chart:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Lets do the same for U.S. 30 year GG bonds:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y

What we have seen over the last 40 years is a slow and gradual trend down to near rock bottom rates our Canadian government borrows against. We were hitting rock bottom rates in treasuries “before” the pandemic hit with 30 year bonds in Oct of 2019 and 10 year bonds in January of 2020. This tells me one of 2 things. U.S. CB has had a consistent game plan to lower treasury rates since the 80’s regardless of who was chair whether it was Greenspan, Bernanke or Powell. (if money managers could have seen these charts 40 years ago) Same can be said for CB rates having a much greater effect on mortgage renewals in commercial banking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Both trends down have had a tremendous effect on asset inflation and the wealth effect inflated assets generate. Of course, there is nowhere to go but up right? But when. Fed fund rates and treasuries could go sideways for the next 10 years, just like Japan. Is the U.S. and Canada headed toward a Japanese balance sheet and CB behavior from here?

The U.S. treasury now owes 28.5 trillion (Fed debt to GDP is 130% to GDP) 3.5 trillion in new spending is being openly discussed to fight climate change etc. . CB’s are buying 1.5 trillion annually of MBS’s with no clear end in sight. The U.S. is looking to head towards 160% Fed debt to GDP and this doesn’t include intergovernmental debt. Are we headed for Japanese economics? (currently at 266% Japanese debt to GDP) Sure looks that way.

What normally happens to a nation’s currency when you swell the money supply? Currency devaluation. Why hasn’t this happened to Japan? Firstly, they mostly owe themselves. It’s what happens when you habitually loan money to yourself by way of QE. Secondly, velocity. As long as a nation keeps up it’s money velocity, currency stays buoyant and you won’t see hyper inflation (unless, say, a nation’s reputation goes up in flames. the loser of war could do it, trade or otherwise. Climate change could also do it by taking out NYC for example).

So, my predictions. We’ll continue to see inflation driven by supply (disrupted supply chains, short supply, less competition) but not so much from U.S. currency until beginning around… 2024. by then, the Euro would be the currency of choice one would think.

Inflation comes from one of 2 sources: Currency values and supply/demand fundamentals. I don’t see it coming from the dollar but I do see inflation with food from drought. Same goes for lumber, it’s values will go back up at least on the western half of the continent as forests shut down from drought and mills run out of wood. Eastern U.S., difficult to say, not sure of East’s ability to meet supply on it’s own.

https://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-british-columbia-canada-drought-monitor-map.php

Metals will overshoot demand and crash hard at some point. It’s next boom and bust cycle will not disappoint. O & G will retreat with a major North American correction or crash to the markets but not as much as markets think due to overall global demand and restricted, tighter supply. The mother of all questions, what will the rest of the markets do?

I believe the U.S. CB has lowered rates recently to try to revive housing and keep this gasbag going. As Garth indicates, housing in North America is off since March. Canadian and U.S. CB’s have both participated heavily in buying MBS’s to further cheapen mortgage rates. The prevailing belief is that for as long as CB’s continue stimulus in housing, the wealth effect will continue to flow more money into the markets meaning the markets will continue to rise, a reasonable view in it’s context.

However, I also believe the expectations in growth and spending going into Q3 and Q4 are overblown. Q2 earnings won’t disappoint, but Q3 and Q4 will. There are 3 drags on North American production of which only one has been discussed here. First, North Americans are ever fatter from us sitting at home. Secondly, as already discussed @ Greater Fool, we are lazier. WFH and easy money from asset inflation has made us mentally soft. Thirdly, climate change. It’s a slow, steady drip but one that can’t be ignored. The west coast is taking it’s lumps. We are missing the production impacted by food, wood and tourism on the west coast from drought but it’s real and has an inflationary impact.

And, I don’t give a #@#$% what anyone says, the markets overall are over valued from investing in stimulus, innovation and trends but not production and that’s a dangerous game. Add in some unexpected earnings misses in Q3 and Q4, and the market is ripe for a major correction or crash.

Thus, I believe the markets will correct sometime between August and November all on it’s own. If it’s not soon and I’m wrong, it’s coming within 2 years guaranteed. Rates are near zero now and we are at or nearing saturation in housing and equities. The only thing left for housing is longer mortgage terms and we know how that ended for nations like Spain. Where does that leave the Fed? Stopping the buying of MBS’s with a stock market crash cratering demand and continued near zero CB rates, raising rates incrementally where it can.

I can’t say how severe or what kind of timeline we are looking at for a major correction or crash. When the dot.com bubble blew up, it took more than a year to hit bottom. The Nasdaq index was down 80%. (forget what the DOW was) I think this will be quick and ugly (40% drop) with a slow recovery from there, but who really knows. If such an event occurs this fall, Fed rate stays at or near zero for the next couple years or more.

I only know that in the future, climate change (sooner than later) and a fatter continent will continue to bite into production. For as much as we laud ourselves with our economic systems, they only work if they are fairly regulated and what food manufacturers have been able to get away with or allowed to get away with, as well as polluters (that btw is all of us globally), is criminal. This, plus the desire of most politicians with a short shelf life refusing to legislate long term population controls world wide for economic reasons will lead to a global population overshoot of which, environmentally speaking, we’ve likely already gone past. Same goes for throttling back consumption not just on energy but everything. We are collectively wasteful and shortsighted and karma will have it’s day. I can’t be the only one who has a dim view for our long term future.

Short term, there will be signs of a crash or major correction to come, there always is. Perhaps its the RRP or reverse repo market needing a bailout or liquidity tightens unexpectedly or earnings disappoint as consumption drops or inflation surprises and continues to jump higher as corps try to squeeze profits offering less for more, or layoff and bankruptcies but there are always signs. The next major correction or crash will be no exception.

#65 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 6:37 pm

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 5:32 pm
#120 IHTCD9

Maybe Canada is heading towards being the first effective Matriarchy?
——————-
Happy to report that in my and in my acquaintances’ households Matriarchy is already the rule.
If it’s effective though, is subject to who you ask.
——

Our household is pretty egalitarian likely because we’re so similar. Ms. IH and both work full time, make near the same, are both eldest children, spiritually the same, financially the same, same family style 2 parent upbringing. Our household responsibilities are tied to traditional roles though. She manages and administrates, I keep the infrastructure of civilization in good repair. Neither has a run away leadership role overall.

Funny thing though, despite our near clone like sensibilities, we’ve been cancelling out each other’s vote for decades.

#66 Faron on 07.15.21 at 6:38 pm

#106 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:16 am

How many times do I have to repeat myself for you and The Jaguar to understand? I think this will be the 10th time I’ve written this, so I’m going to yell into that hairy, wax encrusted ear of yours:

1) I DO NOT CARE IF YOU OR ANYONE ELSE KNOWS WHO I AM.

2) I DEFINITELY CARE WHEN YOU OR ANYONE ELSE SHOWS SIGNS OF SCREWING WITH MY OR ANYONE CLOSE TO ME’S LIFE.

¿comprende? (yes, that is intended to confuse Ponzie)

#67 Shirl Clarts on 07.15.21 at 6:41 pm

I think inflation is a bigger deal than a 1% benchmark rate increase over 24 months. The rising cost of, well, everything is going to eat into whatever disposable income a newbie buyer has today, well before a rate increase. It’s also eating away at that so called “savings mountain” that everyone keeps saying is going to boost the economy in the 2nd half of 2021.

Fuel is $1.70 here on the west coast.

Unless wages can keep up, we could be looking at a recession in 18-24 months. I also expect to see more loan defaults, as many continue to dip into the House ATM to make ends meet.

Good reasons for Trudeau to have that election now before TSHTF.

#68 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 6:44 pm

#58 Faron on 07.15.21 at 6:12 pm
#119 Stoph on 07.15.21 at 12:53 pm

Thanks! Great advice.

I have a ways to go. My blinking and wandering eyes are a nervous tic going waaaay back. Still, stutterers learn to control their speaking, so I should be able to correct my tics.
——

A couple good shots of Rum 5 minutes before the camera rolls will go a long way – just don’t overdo it :)

#69 GrumpyPanda on 07.15.21 at 6:54 pm

In Ontario the new Human Rights commissioner declared there are two global pandemics. Covid and racism.

There you have it: Undeniable proof that climate change is nothing to be concerned about.

#70 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.21 at 7:05 pm

#31 Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 4:33 pm
“T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

I disagree. It was not quixotic.
It was responsible, appropriate, and prudent.

Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

And as the Father of the New Canada.

#71 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 7:08 pm

#53 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 5:34 pm
#35 Sara on 07.15.21 at 4:45 pm
#33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm

——–

So what’s the solution?

——–

The hell I know. All I know is we are screwed if we keep on the way we are. And denying we have created a problem is not going to solve it.

——–

That’s the problem, too many people and no global consensus, means no effective action can be taken.

I think we’ll adapt just fine. It’s moving slow, and not just us, but whole of life on earth will accommodate the changes just as they have done before. We’ll pay whatever cost there is due to no choice but to do so.

If you dropped modern humans into the Mesozoic age with 1800ppm c02 concentrations and anoxic Oceans, I’d bet they’d get by just as well as all the other things running around at that time – probably better in fact.

At this point, it’s better to prepare, rather than just keep on talking about how to stop it (impossible).

——–

Yep. Much like Covid, my take is that climate change is pretty much irrelevant to my life, because:

1. There will be virtually no effect on me personally
2. Humans are infinitely adaptable- including, of course, my own kids and next generations of family. If needed, they will adapt.
3. Nature does what nature does. Species overpopulation happens all the time. Results aren’t usually pretty, but oh well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJysxVeVusU

Every living being thinks it’s important. What makes a human more special than a mouse?

4. The climate change science is hardly settled, although the theme is adored by the media and we’ve watched all the other dishonest and untrue sh!t that’s regularly supported and broadcast as fact. And even if it does turn out human-caused climate change is significant… see #1.
5. Our species has just been here for a blink. Probably gone in another blink.
6. What is important to someone else, or what someone tries to stress is important to me… is not necessarily important to me.

In any case, the logical solution (if there is actually a problem) is nothing more than major population reduction. No biggie… that happens to other animals all the time. Other than that, why waste time talking in circles?

#72 Stoph on 07.15.21 at 7:19 pm

#58 Faron on 07.15.21 at 6:12 pm
#119 Stoph on 07.15.21 at 12:53 pm

Thanks! Great advice.

I have a ways to go. My blinking and wandering eyes are a nervous tic going waaaay back. Still, stutterers learn to control their speaking, so I should be able to correct my tics.

—————————————————————-

You’re welcome. Reviewing a video recording is
one technique used by Toastmasters. Focus on one or two things to improve for next time, so that you don’t overwhelm yourself with a long laundry list. Also keep track of what went well. You’re there as the subject matter expert, so it’s understandable that you won’t be as polished as the host. Lastly, practice, practice, practice.

#73 Reggy on 07.15.21 at 7:22 pm

Diamond Dog, you are so clueless. They are using the cult of climate change to ruin everyone’s standard of living and whole way of life. It is pure marxism.

#74 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 7:26 pm

#59 kommykim on 07.15.21 at 6:16 pm
RE: #33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm
Will people accept big changes in their standard of living for this cause?

=======================================

You’ve hit the nail on the head about why nothing will be done about it until it is too late. The voter would reject any politician who actually did anything sufficient to make a difference. We see this with their promises: I don’t know how many times I’ve heard politicians promise some decades away emissions target knowing full well that they won’t be in power when that target is missed once again.
——

Yep, you might get 5% of the population on board in the West, but forget about any developing nation. It’s never going to happen, GW is going to continue alongside ppm increases with 100% certainty.

But, saying until it’s “too late” doesn’t compute for me. This is going to be a long drawn out process over centuries. It’ll take 100 years to raise sea levels 10-12”, and yeah some places are going to lose 100’+ of waterfront real estate. Some creatures will die off, others will thrive. Humans are the best equipped life form on the planet to deal with CC by far. By a million miles. CC has never met anyone like us before. There are humans living where temps drop to 60 below, and 50 above and are comfortable due to our inventions and technology. They did it before all that too (without the comfort).

Our adaption will be slow and natural in accordance with existing pressures. Less wealth, less children, less prosperity, more technology, more knowledge, etc… we might not even notice it happening year by year.

At the end of the day, planet earth will either be something taught in history class somewhere else in the galaxy, or it will be our collective tomb, one way or another.

#75 FNAiks on 07.15.21 at 7:36 pm

So happy Cloverdale mall is open again. Happy for the small businesses there. A smoking man favourite.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:26 pm

@#31 Quintillian
“Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.”

++++

I’d actually vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger over the dreadful actor playing Prime Minister now….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgLfOrVJJMg

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:29 pm

@#41 Jane24
“52,000 new Covid cases in the UK 4th wave during the last 24 hours. That is in a single day! 47% of infections in folk who are already vaccinated”

+++

I think that God has a particular loathing towards a population that deep fries….Mars Bars…….

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:31 pm

@#66 FARON
“1) I DO NOT CARE IF YOU OR ANYONE ELSE KNOWS WHO I AM.”

++++

Ummmm.
The fact that you’re “shouting”…..kinda sez you do……
Or
You’re hard of hearing.

#79 Nonplused on 07.15.21 at 8:32 pm

Maybe house prices aren’t coming down substantially. Two factors to consider besides low rates. One is that immigration is happening in Canada and the US at a faster rate than houses are being built, and that has been so more or less since the great recession. The other is that corporate ownership of single or attached residential housing is becoming a popular play among the deep pocketed shadow banking system (funds like Blackrock). They play for the long run and don’t really care if they bid 20% over ask. They are targeting certain percentages of their portfolio into acquiring these assets. And once they buy, they do not sell. They just raise the rent a little every year. And they can borrow at 1%, not 2.5% like the plebs.

However funds don’t really affect the supply/demand balance of the market, they only affect the owner/renter ratio. So other than the fact that they have the money to support prices, they aren’t causing the housing shortage. They rent all their houses out, so somebody gets to live in them.

The housing shortage is being caused by city counsels and their development restrictions and absurd zoning bylaws, NIMBY, and hesitancy on the part of builders who all remember 2008 oh so well. Those that survived anyway. And by supply shortages, but that is a recent and probably short lived thing.

The only way to solve a shortage is more supply. The prices are there now to encourage building, but let’s look at all the things that have to happen to make it happen.

First, municipalities need to cut the red tape and make it possible for a developer to bring projects to market. But once that happens a bunch of other things have to fall in place including more lumber production and other inputs, more Home Depots, more skilled workers, and more builders who aren’t afraid of another 2008.

Of course if the “infrastructure programs” of Biden and Trudeau actually turn out to contain any actual infrastructure spending, that spending will be in direct competition with all the things you need to develop residential housing. The workers who build high rises and the workers who build bridges are pretty much the same workers and they use much the same input materials and products.

So ya, even if prices stabilize and the bubbles come out of YVR and YYZ I don’t see the housing shortage going away any time soon. It won’t go away until housing can be built as fast as the population is growing. (Or the population declines, but that isn’t in anyone’s plans.)

———————————–

“You won’t own anything, and you’ll be happy.”

This is often considered a communist manifesto item, but it also shared by our corporate elites. Consider Microsoft Windows for example. Corporations strive for recurring cashflow where possible, but Windows was something people purchased once with a new computer and then ran it until the hardware gave up. But now it is being used as a “free service as a gateway to other Microsoft products. Remember when you could buy Office and it came on a set of disks, and then you “owned” it for as long as that version worked for you? Well not anymore. Now you buy a monthly subscription. For this reason I still use Office 2003 for home use. It’s good enough. But Office 360 (Now Microsoft 360) as a web based subscription service is the new push. You don’t buy it, you lease it on a year to year basis paid for monthly.

Tons of products are moving to this model. Phones, streaming services, Disney even (no more buying video tapes of the movies you like, you get Disney Plus), Netflix, electric scooters, Uber, etc. Everything is moving to a subscription based service model. There are no products anymore. Your device is nothing more than a required gizmo used to access your services. How many old phones do you have in the drawer because the actual hardware isn’t supported after 4 years? Even farmers are having a hard time fixing their own tractors as John Deer and others are locking them out of the computer and insisting they do all the service work. Many people already lease their car. But who hasn’t also rented one? When your travels involve an airplane it is quite common. You not just rent when you need one at home too? It’s just a car.

So why wouldn’t housing follow down the same path?

The ultra-rich plan to turn the whole nation into a nation of renters, renting everything from music to houses from them. Why own your own electric scooter when they are parked literally everywhere and you can activate one with your phone? Teams of “associates” make money driving around in a truck, collecting the scooters, taking them home for the evening to charge them up, and then putting them back out in popular spots. You don’t have to do anything but pay a fee.

Utopia here we come. The rich will own everything, and the rest of us will work to pay the rent for the things and services we want to use.

For some things, like boats, it might actually turn out to be a lot cheaper per hour of operation.

#80 Puzzled in Mtl on 07.15.21 at 8:34 pm

” 98 Crowdelevatorfartz (yesterday)
Rememeber the bus loads of people that came from all part of Canada to ask us not to leave in 1995?
I thought you loved us!
Sad for the people that are at the same time proud Quebecers and proud Canadians.
The wokerati must love people with your attitude…

#81 slava on 07.15.21 at 8:36 pm

#8 VGRO and chill on 07.15.21 at 2:44 pm

“Buying bonds not only finances T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

It is really disingenuous of you to keep phrasing
__————–
Canada’s deficit in 2019 was 39B. Over 10% of budget. 2019, Carl! Before covid. So think Trudeau’s spending is characterized adequately.

#82 Nonplused on 07.15.21 at 8:36 pm

#7 A01 on 07.15.21 at 2:43 pm

Garth, what’s your predication of all the people that suddenly needed a cottage? I’m assuming most were financed by LOC on their principle residence. Wouldn’t we see the biggest price drops in these regions?

Who ‘suddenly’ needs a cottage? – Garth

————————————

As I outlined above, those people will rent a cottage for the days they need it, from a Blackrock owned subsidiary.

#83 Planetgoofy on 07.15.21 at 8:44 pm

#31 Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 4:33 pm
“T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”
I disagree. It was not quixotic.
It was responsible, appropriate, and prudent.
Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt
——————————
Lol
Do you know how much money dissapeard? No oversight so much money waisted… I shake my head… the guys a gong show. A walking scandle and conflict of interest..
I didnt take a dime but gave my commercial renters a break.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 8:44 pm

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:26 pm
@#31 Quintillian
“Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.”

++++

I’d actually vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger over the dreadful actor playing Prime Minister now….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgLfOrVJJMg—————–
You can’t vote for Arnie.
You gotta be an Austrian Citizen.
But I can put in a word for you.
Wearing Lederhosens and yodel the Austrian anthem is required, though.

#85 saskatoon on 07.15.21 at 8:45 pm

if the economy was so hot…

wouldn’t have lost 33,000 full time jobs last month.

#86 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 9:01 pm

Since this blog is somewhat climate change minded today, something else of note. The state of Oregon according to Wikipedia is the U.S.’s top producer of lumber, dominating their economy for decades. Oregon currently has the nation’s largest wildfire burning out of control, 5% percent contained clocking in a couple days ago at 212,000 acres:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon

The size of this fire 2 days ago was 1.3% of Oregon’s total land area of 15,360,000 acres. This works out to 1.3% of the state’s total land area destroyed by fire. To offer some perspective, The 2 worst fire seasons in BC history were 2017 (1.25%) and 2018 (1.45%) respectively. Offering further perspective, Oregon has suffered much worse, just not so early in the season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g3VFJtXjcE

The U.S. drought monitor tells part of the story:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Oregon’s top 5 worst wild fires since 1900:

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/erry-2018/08/ef82ada98f1307/oregons-5-worst-wildfires-sinc.html

Oregon lost over 1,000,000 acres in 2020. This was 6.5% of Oregon’s total land area consumed in flames. When your state is the leading national producer of lumber and your state is having these kinds of fire season losses, how can you sustain exports? Well, you can’t. Welcome to climate change and the burning question Canadians should be asking is, “are we next?”

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=oregon+bootleg+fire&&view=detail&mid=4A206135A8B29BFDCA6B4A206135A8B29BFDCA6B&&FORM=VRDGAR

Not to overstate the obvious, but forests take 80 to 120 years to regenerate. When a province or state loses 1% to fire, this is barely sustainable without logging to consider. Oregon’s fire season of 6.5% of the state going up in flames in 2020 was catastrophic. Last year, it was California’s turn.

Forests aren’t like crop failures where you can replant the following year, cash a govy cheque and reset (btw, I’m a farmer in SW Sask and I’m looking at a crop failure. Foot high Durum and peas, I’ll be lucky to get back 15 bushel per acre, it’s a wreck, worst I’ve seen and I’m a 55’er). when drought hits, crops wilt but forests burn and when they do, they take with it real estate value, force neighboring homes to go uninsured crushing equity and kill permanent jobs.

Wildfires can destroy local economies and if the fire seasons are successively damaging enough as has been the case in Oregon, wildfires and drought can reshape macro economics by crushing government balance sheets state and province wide and effect commodity prices through shortages continent wide. In reality, they already have. We might want to be sensitive to it and remember this the next time we deny why.

#87 Faron on 07.15.21 at 9:06 pm

#74 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 7:26 pm
#59 kommykim on 07.15.21 at 6:16 pm
RE: #33 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 4:41 pm

An error in your thinking is in phrasing the issue as direct impacts climate -> humans. And also limiting the discussion to blunt survival or not.

Civilization grew under the steady climate of the Holocene. Humans existed before that, but the hairball climate during the last glacial (read up on D-O cycles) prevented human success likely due to rapid fluctuations in food availability that necessitated nomadism.

A warmer climate isn’t a problem due to direct temps (despite heatwaves’ growing prominence as human killers). It becomes a problem when heat and precip patterns change and force starvation or migration. 30 cm (min) of sea level rise will push millions of people out of their homes. These climate forced migrations will be physically survivable by most, but the ensuing armed conflicts potentially won’t.

And SA, there are countless ways CC will impact you. From how you engineer structures to food prices to water shortages to earlier loss of elderly family members. Just because you can buy your way out of most things doesn’t mean you should fail to at least acknowledge the need to mitigate the issue for the billions who can’t.

#88 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 9:09 pm

#73 Reggy on 07.15.21 at 7:22 pm

Yeah sure, it’s all made up, not really happening, just a world of pretend:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/june-2021-earths-fifth-warmest-june-on-record-and-warmest-over-land-areas/

#89 45north on 07.15.21 at 9:35 pm

G Toronto city council votes to rename Dundas Street
“The city will hold a public consultation to find a new name for the street and plans to find room in its budget to support people and businesses affected by the change.”

I grew up in Toronto. Dundas Street is part of Toronto.

from the CBC article

Dundas, an influential Scottish politician, was opposed to ending the British Empire’s participation in the transatlantic slave trade when the proposal was brought forth near the end of the 18th century.

“The city is committed to taking steps to right wrongs, challenge systematic institutionalized racism and build a more inclusive Toronto for all, in keeping with the city’s motto, ‘Diversity Our Strength.’”

so the wrong was committed 200 years ago, and they’re going to right it? By renaming a street? Why don’t they go back in time and change the British Empire? Which points out the determination of those in the British Empire who opposed the slave trade and the efforts and sacrifices they made.

Or how about addressing today’s problems. Like out-of-control government spending. Like a housing market that’s on the edge of collapse. Like peak oil. So do they really think that 200 years from now, they will be recognized as the ones who righted wrongs, who challenged systematic institutionalized racism and who built a more inclusive Toronto for all?

I don’t.

#90 Steve French on 07.15.21 at 9:38 pm

Now they have cancelled Dundas Street in Toronto…

Imagine all the signs that need to be changed, businesses to be renamed, the subway stations, Yonge-Dundas square, internet addresses, every single legal document pertaining to property and ownership and taxes.

And for what?

The record of Henry Dundas on questions of civil rights for minorities is actually far more complex than is being portrayed by the cancel culture activists, and actually seems to have been pretty positive.

https://hdcommittee.medium.com/henry-dundas-and-the-canadian-connection-6d4909b27807

No matter.

More statues must be pulled down. There are more than 60 more street names to be erased in Toronto alone.

Canada will continue the cancel cleansing until we reach utopia– until we become as pure as the driven snow.

Year Zero, as the Khmer Rouge called it.

And then we will finally achieve what we all dream for:

People, I introduce to you, the world’s first….

“Woke Nation.”

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 9:50 pm

Another landmark just opened on Vancouver Island, to make it even more attractive to tourists and visitors alike.
Malahat Skywalk.
https://malahatskywalk.com/

#92 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 9:52 pm

#87 Faron on 07.15.21 at 9:06 pm
#74 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 7:26 pm

An error in your thinking is in phrasing the issue as direct impacts climate -> humans. And also limiting the discussion to blunt survival or not.

Civilization grew under the steady climate of the Holocene. Humans existed before that, but the hairball climate during the last glacial (read up on D-O cycles) prevented human success likely due to rapid fluctuations in food availability that necessitated nomadism.

A warmer climate isn’t a problem due to direct temps (despite heatwaves’ growing prominence as human killers). It becomes a problem when heat and precip patterns change and force starvation or migration. 30 cm (min) of sea level rise will push millions of people out of their homes. These climate forced migrations will be physically survivable by most, but the ensuing armed conflicts potentially won’t.
——-

Of course there will be change, but the difference between order and chaos is going to be how fast things change. I think the change will be gradual, and movement of people will be natural, on an individual decision basis. People are able to move quickly and efficiently these days from most parts of the world. It is going to affect poor countries a lot more. If I turn out to be wrong on that, we’ll then ya things could get ugly.

Weather is another issue (tornado just went through Barie On. this afternoon), but the only scary part about this to me is how it will affect agriculture, as it is so condensed these days.

Right now, I’m not very alarmed. If we’re talking 12” in 100 years, that’s a lot of time for folks to pass on having kids (already happening), for technology to deliver answers, and plenty of time for lots of people to move without strife. It’s enough time to allow for natural changes to occur. It’s 4” sea level rise per generation.

The big wildcard to me, is agriculture. A couple missed crops in the wrong places will cause a “right now” problem.

#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm

Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

I’m busily converting kerosene into noise in the humble service of bringing literally tons of things to people who sure as hell aren’t slowing down their consumption of said things – quite the opposite. Makes the climate debate somewhat academic – everyone clutches their pearls over it, no one is willing to change their behaviour one iota. That’s for “everyone else”. Which is why I literally couldn’t care less about the debate over whether climate change is man-made or not, because “man” isn’t going to give up their lifestyle one whit until every last bit of everything is consumed. That’s why a cargo pilot is valued higher by society vis a vis remuneration than an angry climate scientist. It’s just how human nature works. The former brings you neat stuff, the latter brings you boring theories. (Pretty much the whole guiding principle of the Trudeau Liberals™). Know that and find peace, grasshoppers. The book has already been written. Quarrelling over such things is just static, white noise. I wade through the comments arguing climate change and it sounds like the teacher from Charlie Brown.

And frankly I’m loving life now, couldn’t give a damn about the news. Life is definitely moving on. The enforced downtime was ok, kind of interesting in a way, but roaming about and filling the coffers doing something I love is far better. Being back in the air, after a year without employment income, the bi-weekly deposit into the offshore account is just a bonus, an afterthought, almost weird to see. A nice one though. Can’t wait to see what the world looks like a year from now, the opportunities are boundless.

Hopefully someone will let me know how the whole climate thingy works out. I’ll be making a tidy sum bringing y’all your Amazon junk until then.

#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

#86 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 9:01 pm
— –

This is just what I was talking about in my post to Faron, the only thing that actually gives me some concern over CC. So much agriculture is stuffed in so few areas, and droughts can cover large areas. Food shortages have brought civilizations and empires to their knees in the past, and it’ll do so just as easily today as it did then. It’s a tough one for technology to solve due to the sheer amount of work soil, sun, and water is doing for us – at extremely low cost.

Chaos is 100% assured due to food shortages, in like a week and a half.

#95 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:21 pm

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 8:44 pm

You can’t vote for Arnie.
You gotta be an Austrian Citizen.
But I can put in a word for you.
Wearing Lederhosens and yodel the Austrian anthem is required, though.
——-

What if you can dance the Viennese Waltz? When Ms. IH and I got hitched, we took dancing lessons to learn it. At our reception we danced it to Strauss II’s “An der schönen, blauen Donau ” we never told anyone we took those lessons, so all where exceedingly impressed. :D My buds knew something was up though…

Bet you would have liked to have seen that, eh Ponzie?

#96 Robert Ash on 07.15.21 at 10:25 pm

I think it is really helpful, when GT, outlines, in a more direct way the real problems, and poor decisions, Canadians, have had to live with for several years now. It is important in my view, to start to consider GAAP as the only method of quantifying what we as a country are doing to ourselves. I actually think long term we need Private Sector Management groups, to share in the responsibility to control fiscal and monetary policy.

#97 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:30 pm

#90 Steve French on 07.15.21 at 9:38 pm

Now they have cancelled Dundas Street in Toronto…
— ——

Interesting. At least in Ontario, just about every city you visit has a Dundas street…

#98 Archer on 07.15.21 at 10:33 pm

#31 You sound like you work for Trudeau. Damage control?

#99 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:34 pm

#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm

I’m busily converting kerosene into noise…

——

That’s what they say about 2 stroke Detroit diesels, except using diesel fuel – although kerosene would probably work just as well.

And a sweet noise it is! :)

#100 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 10:56 pm

Yes it does seem that “climate change” (global warming?) seems to be a big topic here…because it is at the end of the day the single biggest economic issue that exists.

Our modern world exists because people figured out how to harness the energy of hydrocarbon based fuels, especially coal (& steam), followed by liquid oil and now natural gas.

Try and live in a world without transportation, other than with a horse and sailing ship, or concrete, steel, glass, a myriad of chemicals, fertilizers, plastics… and the efficiencies gained by all of these conveniences.

That is the essence of the global warmongers argument, and to me it doesn’t make sense to go backwards. I for one don’t wish to live as my ancestors 300 years ago did.

The science of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels is no where near settled. If it was, fraudsters like the inventor of the hockey stick wouldn’t have their ass handed to them in an actual court of law when using US style lawfare tactics in a Canadian court.

He refused to produce ANY hard evidence, for 7 years, and now REFUSES (as an American, with nothing but contempt for Canadian courts anyway) to pay the costs assigned by the court, in a case HE launched.

https://climatecite.com/british-columbia-judgment-mann-vs-ball-defamation-suit/

As I mentioned in my previous post, I’d be interested to hear from ANY scientist willing to do what the hockey stick inventor didn’t do, and provide any hard evidence that could stand up to scrutiny like that faced in a real court under cross examination.

For most of the last 30 years or so I just dismissed the junk science because of who was promoting it, globalists interested in global taxation (without representation), and full control of our right to use energy. Every prediction about the future that they have made (All of them!) have been wrong, thus easy to write off.

I’ve started looking into the details more now because I see the true threat of global socialism. They are not letting up.

The science I’ve come across is interesting, especially about the years 1921 and 1934, which are still the warmest on record all around the globe. The US NOAA actually got into the archives and fraudulently changed the data (they called it an adjustment) to suit their political ends.

The CO2 (plant food) levels have also levelled off in the last decade or so, at just over 400PPM, because of all of the extra plant/forest growth over the last couple decades has increased the earth’s need for more CO2 to feed these plants.

Add this to the problem of central bank money printing, and what that does to workers who earn paychecks, and you can see a future much like the past, most will be surfs who will own nothing, but have their basic needs met by the landlord…and will do as they’re told.

The right to vote will be about as effective as the vote in Russia, Iran, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Venezuela…and the list goes on. The basic freedoms taken for granted will be lost, and no one will do anything about it, check out Hong Kong these days…who wats to be a University Professor there now!

It’s no too late to say no, but it’s getting closer.

#101 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 11:05 pm

Wildfires…

Thought I’d add another of my two bits worth on that subject.

Found a good paper on historical fires that have been recorded, big ones in the 3M acre size.

The one in 1910 in Idaho/Montana made smoke that reached Montreal.

https://scholarworks.umt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2474&context=etd

Nothing angers me more than watching forests get destroyed by the forestry policies of the modern urban liberal eco-warrior.

Fortunately, the forests come back, long after the leftists are gone.

#102 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 11:26 pm

#87 Faron on 07.15.21 at 9:06 pm

And SA, there are countless ways CC will impact you. From how you engineer structures to food prices to water shortages to earlier loss of elderly family members. Just because you can buy your way out of most things doesn’t mean you should fail to at least acknowledge the need to mitigate the issue for the billions who can’t.

———-

The entire saga of human existence revolves around adapting ourselves and our surroundings to exploit climatic conditions. Same old, same old.

Moving from Yukon to Arizona will change the climate a person experiences exponentially more than any level of climate change, and with negligible effect on the person’s comfort in the new climate. It’s all about base layers, not ice sheets.

#103 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 11:36 pm

But don’t take muskox from Alaska, move them to Minnesota, then claim they are not doing well because of climate change. Terribly dishonest reporting to conform to a theme:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/554042-zoo-explains-pair-of-musk-ox-it-euthanized%3famp

#104 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 11:42 pm

#31 Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 4:33 pm
“T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

I disagree. It was not quixotic.
It was responsible, appropriate, and prudent.

Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.
——-

Tell that to our future kids trying to save up a dp for a 2M $hit box in the GTA, at a time when tax freedom day arrives in October.

Trudeau’s legacy will be that of the guy who took a perfectly good country to live in, and turned it into a stinking pile of hot garbage. It’s already done bro – DONE.

You really need to break out a calculator homie. Here are some numbers to play around with:

1. Median household income in Canada: 63K
2. Average price of sfd in Canada: 690K
3. Total Public debt owing by Canadians: 2 Trillion
4. Total private household debt in Canada: 2.1+ Trillion
5. Total workforce of Canada: 19 million
6. Projected all in public debt by 2025: near 3 Trillion

This isn’t hard to figure out bro. My Cat would glance at these numbers and decline the use of a calculator, it’s so bloody obvious. How could anyone with a functioning brain think Trudeau has done a good job? He’s straight up napalmed anyone under 40. Do you not care about the future? Meanwhile 40+ asset owning Canadians are buying trash compactors trying to fit all the extra $$ they’re getting into their bank accounts.

Seriously dude, you need to start thinking like a normal human being. Trudeau is a DISASTER unlike anything Canada has faced before. He’s a trust fund elite white boy completely detached from Main Street. I sincerely hope you’re old enough to have got your life set up and on track prior to 2015, because you’re utterly ****** otherwise.

#105 Nonplused on 07.15.21 at 11:46 pm

#92 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 9:52 pm
#87 Faron on 07.15.21 at 9:06 pm
#74 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 7:26 pm

Right now, I’m not very alarmed. If we’re talking 12” in 100 years, that’s a lot of time for folks to pass on having kids (already happening), for technology to deliver answers, and plenty of time for lots of people to move without strife. It’s enough time to allow for natural changes to occur. It’s 4” sea level rise per generation.

—————————————–

I agree. I think we can all agree that climate change, or more specifically global warming, is occurring. The question is “how fast?” and “what does it mean?”

I contend that it is happening slower than most models predict it will but it all depends on the model and how it is “tuned” to various “forcings”.

But if we are looking at the sea rising 30 cm in 100 years and only that, no other major disruptions, it should be a non-event. Almost nothing we build in the modern era is built to last 100 years anyway, so as those big OSB and 2×6 mansions get claimed by the sea they can just rebuild them inland. Same with the roads. When was the last time a road lasted 100 years without being rerouted and expanded, or at the very least being repaved every 20 years? If the sea doesn’t get it old age does. So just build everything new further up hill.

Of course if it creates widespread drought that is another problem, not as easy to solve. But will it? Most of the really rainy places on earth are also quite warm with the exception of deserts. (The great plains were considered a desert when first assessed. But we’ve irrigated the heck out of them. Much of the interior of BC is desert too.) And CO2 is plant food so food production might actually increase (where there is enough water).

So I don’t think I want to argue about global warming anymore. It can be seen on the graphs. But climate emergency? Maybe, but you have to believe in the “hockey stick”.

#106 Annek on 07.15.21 at 11:57 pm

Quintilian on 07.15.21 at 4:33 pm
“T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

I disagree. It was not quixotic.
It was responsible, appropriate, and prudent.

Some day we will look back at “ T2 “ as our own Roosevelt.
————————
Lol! We will look at him as the worst Canadian PM in history.

#107 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 12:03 am

#92 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

Agreed. Crop failures are the #1 risk with the risks of water shortages and wildfires following on the heels. Water shortages have the ability to displace millions, but crop failures have the potential to displace and/or kill billions. Global crop failures would lead to certain anarchy as you say.

What concerns me most is Arctic sea ice loss, due to how much warmer atmospheric temps would become in the Northern hemisphere having a big impact on Greenland ice melts, glacial melts, permafrost melts, rainfall, changed jet streams, the works. I think it’s highly underappreciated just how low sea ice was approaching freeze up in the Arctic last year:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020091512_2020091600_930_arcticictn.001.gif

Another 2 to 3 weeks of June/July weather and it would have been pretty much gone. The ice recovered somewhat year over year due to a couple factors: La Nina like conditions, low snow cover over the winter months creating better freeze up conditions. As a consequence, we went from this:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020071312_2020071400_930_arcticictn.001.gif

To this:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2021071312_2021071400_930_arcticictn.001.gif

We’ll see that the ice has rebounded somewhat. Last year around the 15th of August there was a major storm that cooled the ice and froze large areas of Arctic sea ice, arresting the melt through the last part of August. We may not be so lucky this time ’round with Arctic weather. I think we’ll be exiting Arctic sea ice with about the same thickness in mid September as last year.

There are a couple leading indicators which are in the planet’s favor worth noting. Sunspot and therefore solar flare activity, is low meaning less radiant heat conceivably for this decade. We could even be wandering into a grand solar minimum, all good news for a heating planet:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_minimum#:~:text=Solar%20minimum%20is%20the%20period%20of%20least%20solar,does%20not%20occur%20for%20days%20at%20a%20time.

Also, NOAA has issued another La Nina watch. It could happen and it would help. The bad news comes by way of humanities desire to continue gassing this planet. I keep thinking about a section of the book of Revelations:

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+16&version=KJV

The preamble: 7 seals = God’s influence. 7 trumpets = evil’s influence. 7 bowls/vials = man’s influence. Let’s suppose I’m right and the order of vials also follows a linear timeline of events. The first bowl would be a world market crash. The second is ocean red tide. Lets examine that for a moment. Could this happen with ice on the Arctic through summer? Not a chance. With ice free Arctic summers though, all of these events are now possible.

World market crashes, ocean red tides, fresh water red algae blooms, scorched Earth, failing world markets… now the Euphrates river drying up is interesting. With the Arctic ice cap gone, the temp gradient in the Arctic is dramatically reduced. This would, in theory, move current summer humidity/precipitation concentrations from 10 degrees N where it is now, to 25 to 30 N disrupting weather in the entire planet. (in winter, it dips to 5 degrees S)

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#pwtr

The seventh bowl is a great earthquake. Major ice melts over Greenland could send that off. War, coastal floods, hail the size of soft balls (some have this one confused, a “talent” is a measure of money by weight), its all one would typically expect to follow from “man” made climate change from there.

Where was I, right, the explanation as to why I’m so fixated with Arctic sea ice. Once it’s gone, it opens the door to a whole new realm of interesting possibilities which not so ironically, science and God seem to agree on and judging by the near real time U.S. Navy Sonar animation charts seen above, we may not have long to wait. Can’t say when, exactly. 2023 was mentioned on this site, could be then or could be as late as 2027, but it will happen in this decade and when it does, what follows as one might say, will be biblical.

#108 VGRO and chill on 07.16.21 at 12:07 am

#8 VGRO and chill on 07.15.21 at 2:44 pm
“Buying bonds not only finances T2’s wildly excessive, quixotic and historic levels of spending”

It is really disingenuous of you to keep phrasing this like this, considering we had a once in a 100 year global pandemic this spending went towards.

Do you seriously think your readers are so dumb to not see through this?

“In its fiscal monitor, the IMF estimates the level of net borrowing (deficits)—across all levels of government—as a share of the economy for 35 high-income countries in 2020. Among this group, Canada has the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio at 19.9%. To put this in perspective, Canada’s net borrowing is more than double the ratio of Germany and triple that of Sweden and Ireland. Furthermore, Canada ranks higher than the United States (18.7%), United Kingdom (16.4%) and is almost double that of Australia (10.1%), which has a similar economy to Canada.” – Garth

—-

Death rates per million of the countries you mentioned (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) :
Sweden: 1437
Germany: 1093
Ireland: 1002
UK: 1884
Australia: 1226

Canada: 695

Spent more money, had fewer deaths.

And as you said, the deficit to GDP ratio for the USA in 2020 was 18.7%. Ours was 19.9%. That is not a huge difference.

I’m not saying I am happy with the deficit either, but I know you have a journalism degree and know the way you are wording these things is designed to mislead.

——

Boosh, nailed it Garth.

VGRO, we have a pretty good country here that I am trying to raise a family in and financially illiterate people like yourself are screwing over my children by not understanding that debt is real and has consequences for our options and the options of our kids.

Stop being selfish and knock it off.

——

You know literally nothing about me but accuse me of being financially illiterate. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. Accusing of people you disagree with of being stupid is the hallmark of internet discourse these days.

Your children are going to have bigger problems to contend with than federal debt when they are older. Maybe those pesky scientists ought to be muzzled again when the Tories are back in power?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9788957/MITs-1972-prediction-collapse-society-track-happen-2040-study-reveals.html

#109 Russ on 07.16.21 at 12:13 am

Russ on 07.15.21 at 10:43 am

Faron on 07.14.21 at 8:30 pm
#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 6:47 pm
@#41 Faron.

Just wait for the “ambush” interview when the station stick you live on the feed with some tinfoil hat climate denier to get a boost in ratings.

You should get some one liners down pat for that eventuality.

Ha, I’m open to non hair-related suggestions.
=========================================

Here’s one:
When the antagonist states there isn’t one global warming model that hasn’t been correct..
you reply, “If I had a SuperModel in the office then I wouldn’t be working on my computer.”

–pause for laughs–

==========================================

Hey Guys,
I’m late to the party again because I have my yacht on the hard since last Friday. Working long hours each day to get through the ‘to do” list. This Friday is launch day so I may need to modify the objectives.

Here’s #2:

The antagonist points out that Canada’s recognized contribution to GreenHouseGas emissions has dropped from the reported value a few years ago of 1.8% of world emissions to the current estimate of 1.6%.

You reply, “It’s not the size of your emissions that matter, it’s what you do with it that counts.”

–bada boom–

Do not be led down the path path that Brazillians of tons of USA thermal coal is shipped from Port o’ Vancouver destination China because it is illegal for a USA corporation to ship the same from a USA port.

Cheers, R

#110 NSNG on 07.16.21 at 12:19 am

The irony here is that Canada with probably benefit from global warming because our growing seasons will get longer and extend northward.

#111 Faron on 07.16.21 at 12:43 am

#92 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 9:52 pm

The big wildcard to me, is agriculture. A couple missed crops in the wrong places will cause a “right now” problem.

Yep. We nearly got a taste from California last week. A portion of BC’s tree fruit crop was hammered by the heatwave here. No one survives on apples, but a major failure of wheat, corn and other staples would send prices soaring. NBD for most Canadians, but a ton of friction in poor nations.

Don’t underestimate how grumpy people will get when even a small amount of climate driven migration interacts with sectarian divisions. S. Asia and Africa, where things already aren’t great, will get messy. Even small rates of SLR can drive this (sea level rises unevenly around the globe and storm surges are what bring the issue home).

#112 Mean Flash Crash Guy on 07.16.21 at 12:50 am

#64 Diamond Dog

It occurs to me that the crash of spring 2020 was similar to the flash crashes we were prone to some time ago.

What I noticed is that after the flash crash stock recovered, it more often than not returned to test the flash crash bottom, but in a much slower and deliberate way.

Has me thinking.

#113 J on 07.16.21 at 1:05 am

IHCTD9

‘I’m not concerned…the big wildcard is agriculture’

Agriculture/food is not only a wildcard (and not so wild given the wild changes in weather patterns) it is the lynchpin of continued civilization. Can you imagine 2-3 consecutive years of crop failure? (20-30% crop losses) and the domino effect on political stability/population management. No, people do not move around smoothly and efficiently in those circumstances. I have no idea what you’re smoking.

#114 earthboundmisfit on 07.16.21 at 6:12 am

Your enthusiasm and optimism is duly noted but with the U.S. vaccination rate stalled at around 50%, worldwide at roughly 25%, low income countries at 1%, (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations), and the Delta variant currently ripping through Europe, Asia and Africa in a fourth wave, it is a far too premature to suggest that the “pandemic is over”.

#115 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:21 am

#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm
#86 Diamond Dog on 07.15.21 at 9:01 pm
— –

This is just what I was talking about in my post to Faron, the only thing that actually gives me some concern over CC. So much agriculture is stuffed in so few areas, and droughts can cover large areas
_________________________

Always all knowing with your strong opinions but…

The proper climate for Canadian food production is heading north of the band of proper soils located where the proper climate has been.

What is located just north of that, won’t grow food.

10% of Canadas class A farm land is visible from the CN tower for example. Cottage country is not going to be the next cornucopia. Same deal right across the west.

Repeat for most of the planet.

Up until now, mankind benefited from exploiting existing natural conditions. Now, mankind is nonchalantly changing them, through actions like strapping his butt to 3 tons of steel to go buy a pizza slice and a throw away smelted aluminum can to consume a gulp of carbonated sugar water.

I noticed you are going to dich the truck. That spooks me! What percent of your monthly net do you anticipate a single 100 mile round trip costing in a few years?

#116 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:23 am

sp ditch

#117 under the radar on 07.16.21 at 6:27 am

Many 416 hoods still attracting multiple offers with over asking results especially turn key quality reno’s.

From my spot, paper gains in the last 12-15 months are holding . There is no shortage of buyers for good real estate.

The quest to own will never be out done by the desire to rent.

#118 Prince Polo on 07.16.21 at 7:12 am

May we please get a 5,000% tax on politicians’ (current & former) ineptitude! Garth is mosdef excluded due to being “ept”. :)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-one-time-wealth-tax-could-generate-60-billion-in-revenue-parliamentary/

#119 Y. Knott on 07.16.21 at 9:05 am

*SIGH* It’s been over a year – sorry Garth, I promised myself I wouldn’t comment again. Not the first promise I’ve broken…

CAGW. Is. A. Crock. And its single biggest mistake is that it’s fixated on human-emitted CO2 – the UN IPCC only looks at “human-emitted”. So here’re some numbers WRT CO2 – feel free to look them up yourself:

1) Atmospheric CO2 is currently ~400 ppm. It used to be 4,000 ppm – i.e., ten times what it is now. And plants LOVED it! They evolved in it – CO2 is the fuel that feeds photosynthesis. Plants loved it so much, they carpeted the Earth with thick blankets of coal over millions of years, and produced enough oxygen that huge, early-evolved birds like Pteranodon could fly.

So. Ten-times the CO2 currently in our atmosphere over millions of years DID NOT cause a runaway global-warming catastrophe. Why would our current tenth-that-much do so?

2) that 400 ppm CO2 we currently enjoy? – humans contribute 5% of it; i.e., 20 ppm. Ants contribute 10% of it. Termites – I’ve seen up to 50%, though this may be exaggerated.

Let’s hear it, Global Warming Alarmists – what are you going to do about the ants and termites?

And all the other natural processes, like oh say, wildfires that – while certainly accelerated by drought – are most commonly a result of States refusing to allow clearing of undergrowth. This is horrendous in Australia (where the aborigines routinely set fires to clear undergrowth; Capt Cook wrote that all along the north coast, all he could see inland was a “sea of flame”) and California; even Parks Canada uses controlled burns to clear undergrowth.

And how about volcanoes; how do we address them?

3) During Joe Biden’s recent climate summit, John Kerry proclaimed that going back to some earlier level of CO2 was not enough – we must remove CO2 completely from our atmosphere.

Botanists say that photosynthesis stops below 150 ppm – and then the plants all die, and everybody starves to death. So John Kerry is advocating a policy that would render the Earth lifeless – and he’s climate adviser to the World’s Most Powerful Man.

I didn’t see whether Mr. Kerry was wearing a nice suit, and I don’t care – why is he not wearing a straitjacket and babbling exterminationist trash like this in a rubber room somewhere? And don’t tell me “maybe he doesn’t know” – it’s his [email protected] JOB to know!

Have fun.

#120 Dharma Bum on 07.16.21 at 9:13 am

#90 Steve French

More statues must be pulled down. There are more than 60 more street names to be erased in Toronto alone.
——————————————————————————–

Oh No!

This would mean that I might have to replace my 1986 Perly’s Road Atlas that I bought for $4.95 at Canadian Tire.

Just because some dead guy was a prick, back in his day.

#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am

#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm
Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

=====================
It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.

#122 NoName on 07.16.21 at 9:50 am

Interesting read,

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-quiet-mysticism-of-almanacs/

Almanacs strike this balance between the practical and the poetic. That tightrope act is even starker in older editions. Looking through 18th-century almanacs, there might be a recipe for refining sugar on one page, a poem on the next, a list of court dates after that, and a smattering of dry jokes and witticisms sprinkled throughout. The Old Farmer’s Almanac tagline has long been “useful, with a pleasant degree of humor.”

#123 Quintilian on 07.16.21 at 10:06 am

Bottom line is you Cons will never be in power again.
We true Canada loving patriots have seen what your Retrumplican nut bar cousins have done to the US.

#124 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 10:09 am

#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am
#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm

Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

———-

It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.

———-

I cover my eye with my little hand.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.21 at 10:44 am

#105 Nonplussed
I agree. I think we can all agree that climate change, or more specifically global warming, is occurring. The question is “how fast?” and “what does it mean?”
——————————
That’s the scary part.
We don’t know.
If it’s exponential, we could be in deep trouble sooner then we think.

#126 Sara on 07.16.21 at 10:49 am

#124 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 10:09 am
#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am
#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm

Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

———-

It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.

———-

I cover my eye with my little hand.

========================

Yes I know you don’t care. Lots do, but too many who don’t call the shots. That is why I don’t hold out much hope.

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.21 at 10:51 am

#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am
#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm
Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

=====================
It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.
————————-
Billy Bob has a pilot’s view of the world.
All he sees are ants foraging.
Bombs away.

#128 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 10:54 am

#100 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 10:56 pm

“The science of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels is no where near settled.”

Oh, but it is settled at least with those with the capacity to understand what the data is saying and you don’t have to be a scientist to see it. Bear with me.

As we know, the world is not warming evenly. The oceans for example, are warming up only half the speed as land. When the planet warms up a degree overall, fresh water and oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface. Thus, the oceans warm up .7 degrees and land warms up by 1.4% give or take.

Laterally, land does not warm up evenly. As we head north, the world is warming faster than the rest of the planet. I’ve taken a look on which degrees N latitude it doubles and triples but without success (at least not without pouring hours of time looking) but best guess is it doubles somewhere in the high 30’s N and triples somewhere around the Arctic circle (75N). Once you get within the Arctic circle, the midnight sun effect kicks in full force and as a consequence we can see as much as 5x warmth in summer over truth North but over winter (24hr darkness) it drops to around 3x. I’m not re-inventing the wheel, we know it as Polar amplification:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_amplification

What most don’t know is that this amplification effect has increased from 50 years ago. Why is this amplification effect increasing? Why is the planet warming more as we travel North?
Good questions! It has to do with the trajectory of light. The farther North we go, the lower the trajectory of light is through the atmosphere and the more atmosphere sunlight has to ping pong it’s way through and on the way collides with more GHG’s than usual to reach the Earth’s surface.

https://socratic.org/questions/how-does-the-tilt-of-the-earth-affect-sunlight

I bring this up because 50 years ago, we didn’t see this amplifying effect with world temperatures going North anywhere close to what we are seeing now. Sunlight would travel through 2x, 3x, 4x or more atmospheric thickness than say, close to the equator without the amplifying effect we are seeing now. We are seeing these increased amplifying effects because of atmospheric changes related to GHG’s. This amplifying effect is growing over time. There’s your smoking gun, it’s in the data.

Also, we see a doubling effect with climbs in Altitude at 3500 ft from sea level. Once again, no other reason to explain it other than a build up of atmospheric GHG’s at higher altitudes. Again, smoking gun.

Quick story, Tony Heller graced this site with his presence when a climate change conversation broke out here @ Greater Fool. Tony Heller is an O & G paid propagandist that has run this site for decades:

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/04/who-is-tony-heller/

Tony has a side kick named Spike who dragged him to his site and Spike asked him “what are you going to do”? referring his question to the exact same stuff you are reading now from yours truly with some other comments with links, but this was the main of it with links to back it up and Tony said, “I’m outta here, too much information”. In one line, Tony revealed himself to be what he is. A paid fake.

Not sure why scientists haven’t used the uneven warmth of the planet to prove man made climate change. Perhaps it’s because they are more focused on historical data dating back close to 800,000 years and the correlation of C02 with planet temps. CO2 itself has a genetic marker, we know it’s origins through it’s own atomic footprint. We’ve known CO2’s potential as a GHG going back 80 years or more. Perhaps it’s because it’s so obvious to scientists what is happening, that they forget to dumb it down for the masses or miss the basic lack of understanding the masses have in general with the sciences creating an obvious communication disconnect. Perhaps it’s because scientists are not born communicators or it’s a little too obvious to them so they struggle with the need to simplify it, I can’t say definitively but the proof of man made climate change is there regardless. Seek and ye shall find, all one just has to look.

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.21 at 10:58 am

#120 Dharma Bum on 07.16.21 at 9:13 am
#90 Steve French

More statues must be pulled down. There are more than 60 more street names to be erased in Toronto alone.
——————————————————————————–

Oh No!

This would mean that I might have to replace my 1986 Perly’s Road Atlas that I bought for $4.95 at Canadian Tire.

Just because some dead guy was a prick, back in his day.
——————-
Wait until they come after the numbers.
#13 because of some people are superstitious.
#7 because in Chinese it sounds like death.

#130 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 11:09 am

#126 Sara on 07.16.21 at 10:49 am
#124 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 10:09 am
#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am
#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm

Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

———-

It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.

———-

I cover my eye with my little hand.

——-

Yes I know you don’t care. Lots do, but too many who don’t call the shots. That is why I don’t hold out much hope.

——-

‘The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.’

-H.L. Mencken

#131 BillyBob on 07.16.21 at 11:16 am

#121 Sara on 07.16.21 at 9:33 am
#93 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:00 pm
Meh. In the long run we’re all dead. Why worry?

=====================
It’s not just about us, it is about our children and grand children and the survival of humanity.

=======================================

Nope. The kids and grandkids and theirs etc ad infinitum will be dead in the long run too. Climate change or no. Not sure if you realize, but no one lives forever.

When I hear someone speaking of trying to “save humanity” I run, not walk, in the opposite direction. History is absolutely rife with the type and whether well-intentioned earnests or malevolent manipulators – lots of both in the CC crowd – the “saving” is invariably more horrific than the claimed outcome.

#132 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 11:25 am

#115 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:21 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

I noticed you are going to ditch the truck. That spooks me! What percent of your monthly net do you anticipate a single 100 mile round trip costing in a few years?
——-

I’m ditching the 10mpg 2500HD, for a 25mpg diesel half ton :). I’m also going to liquidate several toys and pieces of equipment and make several other changes in an attempt to convert existing lifestyle inflation back into cash, and go forward with a solid reduction in our cost of living.

The reason is new University tuition requirements combined with expected tax/energy increases. Starting this year we will have a 17-34k annual expense for tuition support for 5 years (maybe more), and I want to get comfortably ahead of all this.

With everyone in the house working last summer and again this summer, the 2500 has become an impromptu commuter vehicle due to schedules, and is now inhaling 120.00 worth of fuel per week. It’s time for a compromise on that front, since this will be the norm for 5 more years.

#133 TheDood on 07.16.21 at 11:32 am

#30 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 4:26 pm
#22 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Man-made climate change denialists are so easily fooled. They hang their hats on the word of one dude with a need to be contrarian who is rejected by the majority of his peers.

——————————————————-

Nonsense. It’s a scam by the elites. I was skeptical when I first heard about it from the Earth Summit in Rio in ’92, and ever more so now.

A simple look at who is promoting the scam and who profits tells you all you need to know. If the rest of the sheeple want to accept a much lower standard of living and convenience, they can do so, but I’m not joining them.

BTW, I make good money selling electrical equipment to grid scale battery energy storage projects. If they want to buy, the least I can do is sell, and business is brisk these days. Same thing with the software and controls we’re working on for higher levels of wind and solar integration, and large scale EV charging for bus & truck fleets.

Find a single reputable scientist who can put serious credentials behind the idea that carbon dioxide is a pollutant, and is directly related to the weather. It’s easy to find dozens of scientist who will put their names behind tearing the CO2 warmongers to shreds.

Try spending all day in a greenhouse at 1000PPM of CO2, no problem, many people do it all day.

Weather changes, always has, always will. It’s driven by the sun, whose energy output is variable, along with earth’s orbit.
___________________________________

“Climate Change” is a buzzword used by media, politicians, and their supporters. The whole thing has become a catastrophic, political mess in my opinion. Who’s words/data do you trust? – No one’s! There are credible scientific arguments on both sides which should tell us we don’t have a complete understanding of what’s happening, nor do we know what to do about it. Leaving it up to virtue signalling politicians to decide on which actions to take is just plain stupid.

#134 Slim on 07.16.21 at 11:36 am

#2 Repurchase Disagreement

re: https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/03/20/watch-former-obama-biden-federal-scientist-dr-steve-koonin-declares-his-climate-dissent-served-as-former-energy-dept-undersecretary/

You left out that this was broadcast on the Faux News Network.

#135 Planetgoofy on 07.16.21 at 12:01 pm

#104 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 11:42 pm
—————————————-
+1 guy you nailed it!

#136 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 12:14 pm

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.21 at 10:58 am

Wait until they come after the numbers.
#13 because of some people are superstitious.
#7 because in Chinese it sounds like death.

——–

Well, being a fluent Cantonese speaker myself, I can unequivocally state that 7 does not sound like death, although it does sound like an uncouth penis.

4, on the other hand, is homophonous with death.

#137 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 12:16 pm

#123 Quintilian on 07.16.21 at 10:06 am
Bottom line is you Cons will never be in power again.
We true Canada loving patriots have seen what your Retrumplican nut bar cousins have done to the US.
———-

Ah, but the pendulum swings both ways. There just needs to be a reason, and Trudeau looked after that last year.

Granted, it will be years yet – but the pendulum has already been predestined to begin swinging back towards its equilibrium position. Trudeau barely won the last election, and if it wasn’t for CV, he’d have been toast at the next one. Good thing he lied about changing the FPTP system, because if he did he’d already be gone.

Until it happens, his policies will continue to increase my wealth, while I listen for for the distant sound of chickens returning home to roost.

I’m totally good with that.

#138 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 12:20 pm

#112 Mean Flash Crash Guy on 07.16.21 at 12:50 am

Well, y’know, it’s just my opinion but when I stare at crystal and throw bones and rune stones and flip cards that’s what I get. If it’s RRP’s (Reverse Repo Products) or something developing in bonds, the U.S. Fed has shown a major desire to bail out what ever is necessary and can arrest a free fall overnight.

That being said, valuations rise on successive sustained earnings of which I’ve voiced, I believe they’ll disappoint. So, a flash crash followed by a slow recovery but again, this is my opinion. It could also melt slowly or defy all logic for another couple years and keep rising. (not)

Just to give money managers a plug, there are low to no risk investments investors can take, investors don’t have to have cash sitting on the sidelines devaluing from inflation. Low to no risk investments may not keep up with current inflation but inflation wouldn’t be a risk with a flash crash slow recovery scenario anyway unless we begin to see chronic commodity shortages or hyper inflation from currency disruption. We aren’t there yet (but if I was going to build a new deck or wood fence, I’d do it now).

Where I see a sluggish economy brewing is this pandemic has made people fatter and lazier and it will have a negative effect on production. For as long as the food industry has its way in adding sugar to 3/4’s of the food products on the shelves in North America, this lag in production will widen in the future. There’s an employment problem, can’t find enough workers to fill those jobs? What we meant to say is, we can’t find enough “healthy” employable workers to fill employment.

Climate change is also a factor on production that will worsen with time. It’s not just drought burning up crops and forests out west, it’s the lack of water. CC will continue to have an ever growing negative effect on macro economics and this year, it will leave a mark.

The NOAA just announced another La Nina watch. That might be good for Arctic sea ice but it means more heat waves and drought, basically what we are seeing right now. To that point, the state of Oregon, I’ll remind that Oregon lost 6.5% of it’s land area to fire in 2020 which is in and of itself, mind bendingly catastrophic. (we wonder why British Columbians are leaning environmental) It’s the speed of which most of it occurred though which is also under appreciated. Most of those acres lost to fire in Oregon in 2020 happened in just. Three. Days. Point is, it can happen so quick.

If BC or Ontario or Quebec experienced something like this, conversations on climate change would be very different and people would be much more alarmed and rightly so. They should be alarmed right now, Oregon isn’t so far south and the heat wave this summer… I still believe BC will lose 30% of it’s forests by the end of the decade. It can’t happen without losing the Arctic cap first. When that happens, the world won’t be prepared for what happens next.

Currently, the max temp over the Arctic cap looks like this:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2max

As we can see, the entire Arctic cap is currently under melt. The atmosphere 500, 1,000, 2000 ft above the ice is in the mid to high single digits, being cooled by the air near the surface as evidenced by the chart above. Best advice is, keep an eye on the water temps over Hudson Bay and watch how quickly the water warms up in just 3 or 4 weeks with the ice gone:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sstanom

Surface waters will hit from 10 to 15 degrees in a short period of time. As the Arctic loses it’s ice cap, the same thing will happen and the knock off effect is a much warmer atmosphere over the Arctic and as a consequence, the rest of the Northern hemisphere. This will lead to much slower jet streams, more rains over the Arctic over summer, more extreme heat waves and floods, likely thunder storms over the Arctic, accelerated permafrost melts, Greenland ice melts, we could be looking at an atmosphere over the Arctic in the 20’s during summer, all happening in just a few short years.

What will this do to Greenland ice melts? Dramatically accelerate it. We could be looking at 8 to 10 weeks of sustained ice melts over 80% or more of Greenland. We won’t be measuring sea level rise annually by mm’s, we’ll be measuring in inches and probably feet over time. The island will rise and trigger earthquakes around the world, likely a massive Earthquake of biblical proportions and the only thing we really don’t know is when but if I had to hazard a guess, it all happens within 2 decades.

Of course, we can’t invest in the end of civilization, no one can. But, we can invest in trying to prevent it. Be like Billy Bob, try to live a happy life regardless, make a buck and if we lose, we lose. Nothing in this life is permanent or guaranteed, we’ve always known this. Indifference isn’t a lack of empathy, its wise. But, it’s also wise knowing we have to live with ourselves and the only way we can do this coming out clean is to keep our motives pure and give our best effort. That being said… are we? It sure doesn’t collectively look that way but I’m asking you the individual. Are we doing the best we can?

#139 Planetgoofy on 07.16.21 at 12:22 pm

#123 Quintilian on 07.16.21 at 10:06 am
Bottom line is you Cons will never be in power again.
We true Canada loving patriots have seen what your Retrumplican nut bar cousins have done to the US.
———————————————————–
REDICULOUS statement. There are NO politcians around anymore (ie Ralf Klein) that have any balls, brains or accountability.
I bet you dont run a business?
People that run large successful business like I do don’t have rose colored glasses. ITS ABOUT survivale and the bottom line.

#140 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 12:30 pm

#130 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 11:09 am

‘The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.’

-H.L. Mencken
—-

Excellent, another great quote to install into the long term memory bank!

This is as good as poster “Nostradamus” who installed the last beauty: “He who rides a tiger, dare not dismount”.

#141 James on 07.16.21 at 12:47 pm

#97 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:30 pm

#90 Steve French on 07.15.21 at 9:38 pm

Now they have cancelled Dundas Street in Toronto…
— ——

Interesting. At least in Ontario, just about every city you visit has a Dundas street…
_____________________________________________
My first home was on Old Dundas Street in the west end. Does that get a new name as well. Who is paying for all of these changes. Details details. Get ready for another hefty tax increase citizens of Toronto.
BTW are we going to go after a re-name for Montreal’s-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport? After all Pierre and Jean Chretien, his minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development at the time, penned the white paper in 1969 dictating that their current relationship between the First Nations and the government of Canada be terminated and all Indigenous Peoples were to be fully integrated into Canadian life. He is as complicit as Sir John A.

https://theconversation.com/pierre-trudeaus-failures-on-indigenous-rights-tarnish-his-legacy-162167

#142 the jaguar on 07.16.21 at 12:55 pm

@137 the Ponz….”Bombs away”. That’s deep. I might try it just for the experience……

#143 Blacksheep on 07.16.21 at 12:57 pm

Slim # 134,

#2 Repurchase Disagreement

re: https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/03/20/watch-former-obama-biden-federal-scientist-dr-steve-koonin-declares-his-climate-dissent-served-as-former-energy-dept-undersecretary/

“You left out that this was broadcast on the Faux News Network.”
——————————————
Are you claiming that former Obama-Biden federal scientist Dr. Steve Koonin is not credible.

Because of the network that interviewed him?

Would he be considered more credible, if interviewed by: CNN or PBS.

If so, why?

#144 Prince Polo on 07.16.21 at 1:00 pm

#115 Dr V on 07.15.21 at 11:52 am
95 Prince Polo – what exactly are you describing as a “train wreck”? The Smith manouevre in general, or its potential repurcussions in the economic
environment you expect to unfold, or the possibility
that certain persons will be hurt financially due to their
personal economic situation?

I was alluding to the fact that a financial professional won’t touch it (and Sinan laid out the reasons why); yet, there will be more people trained to offer it out to uneducated clients. A minority will probably do well, but it seems that the majority of people will get fleeced, just as they do with high-MER mutual funds…

#145 AM in MN on 07.16.21 at 1:11 pm

#128 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 10:54 am
#100 AM in MN on 07.15.21 at 10:56 pm

“The science of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels is no where near settled.”

Oh, but it is settled at least with those with the capacity to understand what the data is saying and you don’t have to be a scientist to see it. Bear with me.

———————————————————

No, it isn’t even close.

As I mentioned, give us the name of just ONE scientist with credentials who can produce hard evidence that CO2 is the cause of these weather events, and that these events haven’t happened before.

Check out the lawsuit the fraudster inventor of the hockey stick graph has been involved in.

7 years in BC Supreme Court, refusing to produce ANY hard scientific evidence, finally runs out the clock with an impatient Judge, in a case HE filed, gets ruled against and refuses to pay the judgement.

I live my life in power systems engineering, sales, project development, new energy technology…you name it. This includes hydrocarbon based energy of every kind and energy storage technologies now being used in large scales.

I meet a lot of experts, but I don’t meet people who have a better understanding of the big energy picture than I do.

You have a choice about the type of future you want to live in. Do you want to sacrifice your freedom and your living standard to Al Gore? Go back to riding horses to get around? Get rid of hydrocarbon based travel and transportation, along with steel, concrete, glass, plastics, fertilizers and a long list of other petroleum based chemicals and other conveniences.

I don’t and I won’t.

Again, if you can find a link to any real scientists with their names and professional credentials willing to back up the hockey stick graph (global warming’s bible), please post it.

Also, check out the links to some of past big (3M acre+) forest fires like the one in 1910 in Idaho/Montana. Don’t get me started on the forest management practices of modern urban leftists. Listen to Patrick Moore, founder of Greenpeace if you want some scientific understanding.

#146 Km on 07.16.21 at 1:19 pm

@jane
Well if it happens it happens and we just keep going and it runs its course. We will have plenty of info by then to decide if lockdowns will happen again as many countries did things differently and what the results were.

#147 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 1:26 pm

#133 TheDood on 07.16.21 at 11:32 am

“Climate Change” is a buzzword used by media, politicians, and their supporters. The whole thing has become a catastrophic, political mess in my opinion. Who’s words/data do you trust? – No one’s! There are credible scientific arguments on both sides which should tell us we don’t have a complete understanding of what’s happening, nor do we know what to do about it. Leaving it up to virtue signalling politicians to decide on which actions to take is just plain stupid.

——-

Agreed, listening to anything other than both sides of scientific opinion, is a waste of time. Right now, there’s no question that C02 is connected to global temperatures. At 200 ppm, earth is an ice ball, at 1800 ppm, earth is tropical with giant sized life, no ice caps, huge algae blooms, and probable anoxic Oceans.

From here it’s pretty easy to deduct that artificially pumping long sequestered C02 into the atmosphere is going to warm things up, and that everything connected to warming global temps will therefore eventually come to pass.

But that does not mean we light our hair on fire and freak out. We know humanity will not go backwards wrt quality of life, and we know that the #1 risk as a result of changing climate is probably crop failure.

IMHO, we should therefore be putting resources into understanding the agri risks, and plan how we might deal with this. Both within Canada, and as a result of far worse conditions abroad and what impact on us thereof. Fixing crop failure is impossible, maybe we need something like the US federal oil reserve, except for food.

A starving population goes to hell in a hand basket very quickly. I tend to think the best mitigation for this may ultimately be best effected on a personal basis. A garden, some birds, hunting and fishing skills/equipment, and long term food storage strategies. Personally, if I see the trouble coming, I would definitely not rely on government to see me thru.

It really wouldn’t take a lot of effort to prepare for a possible food shortage, and provide for yourself literally years of food security.

#148 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.16.21 at 1:43 pm

#20 Sara on 07.15.21 at 3:46 pm

Hurricane Sandy made for good news ratings.
A 100 years ago Low Lying areas would flood and nobody would notice or care.
Now they build homes in unsafe coastal areas and it makes for great News. Its all about selling advertising.
There are more and more people scrambling for waterfront locations to live and Cities are hell bent of getting tax base. So let them live in dangerous areas with weak dykes. It will help to balance the budget.

Patrick Moore who co-founded Greenpeace is a climate scientist.
Watch a video from him on you tube to get perspective.
If the industrial revolution did not come along and raise CO2 levels we may have experienced the death of all plant life on earth.
160PPM is the magic number when plants die. Ask any greenhouse grower how useful CO2 is in growing plants.
We were nearing 180PPM before we started using fossil fuels. The long term historical number before humans was around 2000PPM.
A lot of scientists that put their name on climate change Memorandums are not Climate Scientists.
You don’t go to the baker for Financial Advice.

#149 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 1:43 pm

#132 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 11:25 am
#115 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:21 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

I noticed you are going to ditch the truck. That spooks me! What percent of your monthly net do you anticipate a single 100 mile round trip costing in a few years?
——-

I’m ditching the 10mpg 2500HD, for a 25mpg diesel half ton
______________________________

The go to, best, diesel mechanic, within many miles of me here drives a 25mpg gasoline burning truck. For all good reasons.

#150 Planetgoofy on 07.16.21 at 1:58 pm

#145 AM in MN on 07.16.21 at 1:11 pm
I meet a lot of experts, but I don’t meet people who have a better understanding of the big energy picture than I do.
You have a choice about the type of future you want to live in. Do you want to sacrifice your freedom and your living standard to Al Gore? Go back to riding horses to get around? Get rid of hydrocarbon based travel and transportation, along with steel, concrete, glass, plastics, fertilizers and a long list of other petroleum based chemicals and other conveniences.

I don’t and I won’t.
———————————————-
+ one dude.
I built cell networks telecom and power systems.
Yup thats the reality and people with their 2 bit crappy oppinions about GREEN have no clue to the systems that make our lifes GREAT through, NG,Oil ect.
Give up your car, cell phone, FOOD and you will get your green.
We are a long way away. Idiots at the top think they can just flip a switch.
Ive got mega hours in helicopters just getting too and building cell sites.
They wont run with a rubber a band nor batteries.
Cheers

#151 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 2:05 pm

#138 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 12:20 pm

I’ll remind that Oregon lost 6.5% of it’s land area to fire in 2020 which is in and of itself, mind bendingly catastrophic.

——–

No, the land is still there. Not lost at all.

It may be worth considering that fire ecological systems are adapted to -gasp!- burn. When a fire burns the same place it has been periodically burning since time immemorial, it is only a catastrophe to the newly invasive species who have not yet adapted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_ecology#Fire_tolerance

#152 Summertime on 07.16.21 at 2:06 pm

There is no man made global warming. It it due to the sun cycles. It is documented in details, look for it.

There is ‘Grand Minimum’ in solar activities coming so rather than global warming we could face some extended global cooling, i.e. mini ice age.

The proverb ‘as the hell freezes’ will be valid for most of the great white north. I always thought that the hell is cold, it is much worse than being hot.

Ice fishing cabins at 10 mil + sounds a ‘great investment’.

Dolce Vita, this grappa is absolutely fantastic.

#153 BillyBob on 07.16.21 at 2:09 pm

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.21 at 10:51 am

————————-
Billy Bob has a pilot’s view of the world.
All he sees are ants foraging.
Bombs away

==============================================

It’s true there’s been a few times I’ve longed for a way to dump the lavs over certain locales.

#154 Phylis on 07.16.21 at 2:15 pm

#148 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.16.21 at 1:43 pm….A lot of scientists that put their name on climate change Memorandums are not Climate Scientists.
You don’t go to the baker for Financial Advice.
Xxxxxxxxxxxx
Mickey was caught white handed too.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6138812/mickey-mouse-global-climate-emergency-letter/

#155 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 2:19 pm

#145 AM in MN on 07.16.21 at 1:11 pm

Hockey stick graph’s, are you stuck in time. Lots has changed in 20 years if I may say so:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

Some folks can’t be taught, they know everything. Like you for example with your “straw man argument”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

No one can say with 100% certainty that any weather event is linked to climate change. But a long series of extreme weather events can make it fairly definitive. Not 100%, but definitive. Same goes for “no one can say it hasn’t happened before” because it has. This planet has gone through at least 5 mass extinction events, of course this planet has seen it all but think.

Why the @$^&**^ should we be dumb enough to to excuse a man made mass extinction with the mere excuse, “well, it’s happened before”…? Don’t mean to offend, but it’s a dumb argument.

Climate change is a narrative that won’t end well and no amount of fallacy arguments, and humanity has it’s share, is going to change it. We buffalo ourselves with a belief that the world markets will come up with something, that our tech will save us. And if the destructive effects of climate change come more quickly than expected and take down global markets? It’s called a Non Sequitur fallacy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

#156 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 2:26 pm

#151 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 2:05 pm

I stand corrected. And if mass environmental degradation is too overwhelming? Just a guess, but they start with increments.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-5-major-mass-extinctions-4018102

#157 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 2:59 pm

#149 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 1:43 pm
#132 IHCTD9 on 07.16.21 at 11:25 am
#115 Wrk.dover on 07.16.21 at 6:21 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:06 pm

I noticed you are going to ditch the truck. That spooks me! What percent of your monthly net do you anticipate a single 100 mile round trip costing in a few years?
——-

I’m ditching the 10mpg 2500HD, for a 25mpg diesel half ton
______________________________

The go to, best, diesel mechanic, within many miles of me here drives a 25mpg gasoline burning truck. For all good reasons.
—- –

Must be a pretty new truck if full size, S10’s and Rangers with V6’s don’t get 25mpg.

I’m building it myself. Square body GM from the 70’s/80’s, 6.2 Detroit IDI non turbo, 5 speed OD, 2wd, light tall geared rear diff, aluminum flatbed, under 4000lbs. It’ll tow 5-6K, and hwy mileage could be near 30mpg. The old 6.2 N/A was built expressly for fuel mileage, and there is no diesel that will throw down better mpg that bolts right into a half ton for less money. Not even close.

It’s also one of the most undesirable oil burners out there, so Used/NOS parts are dirt cheap, under 50.00 for injectors, 500.00 for injector pump.

It’ll be a gutless wonder at 130 HP, but will be cheap to maintain, super easy to work on, fuel efficient, and still be a real truck. I’ll probably make a profit when I sell it too.

I totally agree with your mechanic when it comes to any modern day diesel. The heyday for great diesels was in the 90’s, they’re just too expensive to own these days because they no longer get the great mileage. You need to buy DEF, and injectors are 600.00+ each. Cummins maybe excepted. Today’s diesel trucks make 1000 ft-lb of torque, pass emissions standards, are full-on luxury vehicles, get 15 mpg, and cost 100k. Not what I’m after…

#158 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 3:02 pm

#156 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 2:26 pm
#151 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 2:05 pm

I stand corrected. And if mass environmental degradation is too overwhelming? Just a guess, but they start with increments.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-5-major-mass-extinctions-4018102

——–

Anytime.

If only the Ordovicians had incrementally arrested continental drift with coordinated rhythmic movements, maybe while humming Koombaya.

#159 Diamond Dog on 07.16.21 at 5:12 pm

#158 Sail Away on 07.16.21 at 3:02 pm

Here’s one we missed:

“I’ll remind that Oregon lost 6.5% of it’s land area to fire in 2020 which is in and of itself, mind bendingly catastrophic.” – Diamond Dog

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon

The state of Oregon has 96,000 land miles. I multiplied by 160 instead of 640 acres (1 sq mile). True land area is 61,440,000 acres divided by 1 million+ acres = 1.62% of land area wiped by flames. That’s still substantial, but it’s not 6.5%. Major error on my part, apologies for that.

#160 Tudval on 07.16.21 at 10:17 pm

But you also advocate for more taxes on real estate, even though it’s already taxed to the max. Property taxes in recent years have become more wealth transfer than pay for service. So why not a tax on stock portfolios?

Equity gains and income are already taxed. House profits are not. – Garth