Hard choices

Our shiny new GG (qui ne peut pas parler français) gets her wings on July 26th. About a month later Justin Trudeau and wife will stroll across to Mary Simon’s digs and ask her to dissolve Parliament. A little over 36 days following that media event we’ll have an election. The third Monday in September seems a safe bet.

By then victory over Covid will have been declared. The vast majority of the herd dosed. The economy largely reopened. Malls and airlines busy. Downtowns alive again. People remembering which side of their pants the zipper is on. Pandemic puppies (and their pet parents) dealing with separation anxiety.

So a new survey (by Ontario realtors, but still with some creds) reports 70% of respondents think addressing the “housing crisis” should be a top priority of government. In fact, the same poll discovered a shocking 46% of people in that province are considering moving out of the province just because real estate is perceived as being cheaper elsewhere. (Man, are they in for a surprise…)

The point is that nothing – not the huge smelly deficit, not the handling of Covid, not Indigenous angst, not even the environment (now delivering fire, heat & drought) – is as big an issue to the largest voting cohort as a house. Look at the numbers. Shocking. Among those people who don’t have real estate, 65% want some. Between the ages of 18 and 29, that number soars to 80%. (More than half – 56% – crave a detached house, by the way.) We have thoroughly, utterly and deeply indoctrinated our kids with our twisted one-asset strategy. And this is the result.

So it explains the fact that once-shunned regional cities from Halifax to Guelph to Kamloops have seen massive price jumps and strange new clots of people in town with manbuns and electric scooters. And there will be significant political implications.

What will the federal pols promise, if elected?

Will Ottawa follow the lead of BC, for example, where layers of new taxes have been the primary tool to try and wrestle down prices (and clearly failed)? Will we end up getting 40-year amortizations again, as the O’Toole Conservatives have suggested (which started this whole real estate nuttiness a dozen years ago). Will the NDP once again promise spending gazillions in tax money for ‘affordable housing’ that never gets constructed (and does nothing to help the middle class)? Or will the Libs just keep through money around to increase demand (shared equity mortgage, tax credits, RRSP homebuyer plan, free retrofit bucks)?

In other words, will anyone suggest higher insured down payments, shifting mortgage risk from taxpayers to lenders, phasing out the PR tax exemption, giving tenants a break to level the playing field or using vast federal land holdings for the building of lifelease housing? Nah, of course not. Politicians are always increasing demand, not tempering it, while never encouraging supply and perpetuating the myth that owners are holier than renters.

The next six or a dozen months will be watershed ones for real estate, public policy, markets and the workplace. Looks like my own Toronto corporate colleagues will be trekking back into the big tower during the first few days of October. This week RBC’s top dog said the bank will try a hybrid approach, but what that means has yet to be spelled out. Unlikely are two outcomes: (a) everybody has to return to a 2019-style work week, or (b) anybody (other than IT guys and commissioned sales people) will be allowed to stay 100% remote. For most employers ‘hybrid’ means you go back to the workplace – just not every day. So if you’re employed in the Big Smoke, for example, and moved to, oh, Woodstock or Tillsonburg, there will be two or three days a week involving four or six long trips on the Death Highway known as 401. Try that in late January.

So the predictions hold. The election will contain ridiculous, impractical housing policies. The Libs will win (unless the polls lie) and succeed to increasing real estate demand. Meanwhile central bank stimulus will end (like it started to on Wednesday) with bond yields and mortgage rates creeping higher. Suburban, hick city and rural prices will be under pressure. In contrast, urban units will flourish. Look at Vancouver, where a new condo thing at 2 Burrard sold out 50% of 239 units in 48 hours. “Downtown demand is about to surge,” say the developers.

I’m told that tomorrow CREA will crow about a 25.9% year/year jump in average house prices in June. Mortgage debt, like public spending, is off the charts. And all the kids want is a house.

Democracy may be about to fail us. Again.

About the picture: “I love the dog pics so thought I would share my all time favourite in case you might like to use it,” writes Rob. ” This is of me and Maddie, a rescue from up North that was my faithful companion for a decade of backcountry exploring all over the west.  This was taken on our  last ride together in our favourite place near Nordegg Alberta.  She loved to  run  all day and would do it right beside the bike no matter the terrain.  I can not even count the bears she alerted to our presence with her deep bark  and clanging bear bell.”

129 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 3:18 pm

A brutal recession cant come soon enough.

#2 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.14.21 at 3:22 pm

Crystal Ball Wednesday.: Howe we will pay for all of the above ?
The Government will introduce a special Canada COVID Recovery bond .With an estimated 2 Trillion CAD in registered assets ( RRSP, TFSA,Employer) , everyone must hold 25% of their registered assets in these bonds. Maturity will be 50 years,with a CPI like yield, convertible at time of passing .
Maybe throw into the mix the 500 billion or so the CPP manages and they can easily retire the debt for peanuts.
Then cancel the Cap Gains inclusion.
Next we start taxing everyone who sells a house in less than 10 years, progressive with 100% inclusion rate if less then 3 years.
Next we roll out the digital loonie and start a micro-transaction tax.

See ,it is that easy, no need to panic.

#3 S.Bby on 07.14.21 at 3:25 pm

Government doesn’t have the balls to really do anything to lower housing prices. The taxes they levy only affect non-voters (foreigners) for the most part and they won’t touch the “hard earned equity” of the boomers.

#4 Dolce Vita on 07.14.21 at 3:25 pm

“In other words, will anyone suggest higher insured down payments, shifting mortgage risk from taxpayers to lenders, phasing out the PR tax exemption…”

————–

Oh Garth.

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my favorite things.

Well said Garth. Logical. Realistic.

Politician Seppuku ceremony stuff. Likely as a snowball’s hope in Hades.

Still, I admire your verve.

#5 aftred on 07.14.21 at 3:26 pm

Welcome back 30 year amortization!

#6 cuke and tomato picker on 07.14.21 at 3:32 pm

It sounds like the house we bought 16 years in Central Saanich 15 years will at least double in price or maybe more but where to go is the question?

#7 Ken on 07.14.21 at 3:33 pm

Canada has not paid it’s bill for 13 years. Doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. One day Canada will have no choice. That day will be ugly for the dollar and for real estate. It’s happened before and it will happen again.

#8 Dolce Vita on 07.14.21 at 3:49 pm

“By then [September] victory over Covid will have been declared.”

————–

By Labour Day 100% vaxd that want to be* for sure per my Projections (so far +/- 0.24% off actual).

Though, even after that he rubs still going to be Delta.

—-

First the GOOD NEWS.

2 days ago. UK Chief Health Officer. Delta vs. Vax efficacy. UK has administered primarily AstraZeneca 100M doses ordered and some Pfizer 40M and Moderna 17M (Feb 2021).

Delta vs. Vax: Infections reduction where unvaxd = 100:
https://i.imgur.com/rqeQaTA.png

Delta vs. Vax: Reduction in Hospitalizations where unvaxd = 100:
https://i.imgur.com/OFOMXeq.png

—-

The bad news.

In 2 charts:
https://i.imgur.com/RUdDn2S.png
https://i.imgur.com/0W4qIDL.png

Take a CLOSE LOOK at the numbers in the last chart Canada (data up to Jul 13 yesterday) vs. today’s new cases:

Spain 44,000
UK 42,302
The Netherlands 10,492
Portugal 4,153

Delta low and slow but when it takes hold, exponential or near vertical as in The Netherlands case.

—————-

*Get vaxd Canada 2 doses tout de suite.

Even then you now know the probabilities thanks to the formidable UK and its testing, sequencing.

#9 Jens on 07.14.21 at 3:54 pm

To get from Tillsonburg to Toronto, you take Hwy 403, not the 401. Not much more pleasant though.

403 to QEW. Yikes. – Garth

#10 Damifino on 07.14.21 at 3:56 pm

When debt gets unwieldy, what is there to do?

Extend amortizations, of course. I predict the Libs, NDP and Tories will each make a 40-year mortgage pledge. Same outcome though. Here’s my useless prediction:

Another Liberal minority. This time with 165 seats, 5 short of the barest majority. Aw, the poor kid. It will be quite a heartbreaker.

Still, I expect he’ll chin up and carry on. There will still be a bit of an economy left to bury.

#11 Jens on 07.14.21 at 3:57 pm

“a new condo thing at 2 Burrard sold out 50% of 239 units in 48 hours”

Gone are the times when those towers sold out 100% in half an hour.

#12 alexinvestor on 07.14.21 at 4:02 pm

#5 … yup 30 amortizations, more loan money from RRSP, perhaps preferred interest rates and lower insurance mortgage insurance for first timers. The bubble must keep on going !

Bank of Canada not changing rates until late 2022 … which probably means not until 2023.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-cuts-growth-forecast-for-2021-holds-key-interest-rate-1.5508331

#13 Linda on 07.14.21 at 4:02 pm

18 year olds want to buy a house? Things have changed. Used to be most 18 year olds were either celebrating graduating high school or stressing about which college/university they hoped to attend. Buying a house was something they might do one day far into the future. Like age 30 or so.

#14 Prince Polo on 07.14.21 at 4:05 pm

As I have satirically suggested on here previously, why not 50- and 75-yr amortizations as long as long as you also agree in the contract to have children (50-yr) and grandchildren (75-yr option). However, now that 40-yr amortizations are back on the table, I will satirically double-down with 80- (children) and 120-yr (grandchildren) options! Why are politicians and the electorate so stooooooopid!

#15 Kona on 07.14.21 at 4:07 pm

The “housing crisis” never seems to take into account:

1. That people still buy houses, regardless of the price increases,
2. That new houses continue to increase in size. If there was truly an affordability issue you’d think we would be buying less house, not more,
3. That our houses have a higher level of finishing than ever before. Even entry level homes are coming with hardwood everywhere and stone countertops. Where’s the affordability issue?
4. The rate of home ownership continues to increase.

The housing crisis seems to be less about people not being able to buy a house and more about people not being able to buy the house that they want.

#16 TurnerNation on 07.14.21 at 4:14 pm

Economic Lockdowns almost over? No…think 2022-23. You thought that lining up and submitting would earn you freedom.
This New System is about control over our Movement/Travel, Breeding, and Feeding.

.Only minor changes in the works as Canada-U.S. border restrictions set to renew (thestar.com)

.India states considering two-child policy and incentives for sterilisation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/14/india-states-considering-two-child-policy-and-incentives-for-sterilisation?

– ON is working on Digital IDs – might be the Kanada test zone for the global Vax pass. We did get the armed checkpoints between the provinces.
People knew this early 2020: see http://www.ID2020.org – see how the year is in the name, the rollout year?

.Ontario needs to develop a COVID-19 vaccination passport, Toronto mayor urges (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

– It must be rolled out, slowly. Here we go a soft sell on inter-State travel passports and virtual Berlin Walls?
The Delta Strike Force. This is WW3

.Chicago Issues New Travel Warning/10-Day Quarantine Recommendation For Those Coming from Missouri & Arkansas
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/chicago-officials-issue-travel-advisory-amid-spread-covid-delta-variant-n1273865

—————-
—————-
For Dolce & Crew.

— Is this why gyms in Ontariowe were for hundreds of days ordered closed? They do not want people healthy, they wanted you locked under house arrest abusing substances, while the New System is being rolled out.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/additionalmeetings/93534
“Low testosterone levels in men with symptomatic COVID-19 were associated with a greater risk of severe illness or death, according to Italian researchers.
… the lower the level of testosterone the higher the likelihood they would need intensive care, intubation, and long hospital stays.”

— The greatest Conspiracy these days is that we have immune systems.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762
Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection? Jul 13 , 2021 9:24 AM
Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated – compared to just 1% who had been infected previously.

#17 Doug t on 07.14.21 at 4:18 pm

The demise of a great country – what will rise from the ashes?

#18 Dolce Vita on 07.14.21 at 4:19 pm

EU TRAVEL HEADS UP…deal breaker???

Even though Gov Canada does not want you traveling anywhere*

https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisorieshttps://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories

if coming to Europe what a difference a day makes. France now saying 2 doses vaxd with APPROVED EMA vax ONLY may enter, get transportation, stay at a hotel, eat at restaurants, visit museums, etc.

Covax or Covishield AstraZeneca (270K Cdns) and AstraZeneca (3.1M doses in total, unknown how many from the US) ARE NOT on the EMA approved list.

EMA list of approved vax: EU Pfizer, EU Moderna, EU J&J (Janssen), EU/UK AstraZeneca.

Potentially near TWO MILLION Cdns will be SOL trying to get into France. Likely the rest of the EU will follow suit. Talk of doing the same here in Italia today. Squares with what I am reading here in the EU:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7992959/covid-coronavirus-vaccine-passport-europe-eu-travel-covishield/

PS:

Yesterday French restaurants, hotels, etc. bitching about enforcement. Gov France response today to the bellyaching:

https://i.imgur.com/oBCc6GG.png

Take it seriously Canada is you think you can waltz into the EU and not conform with the above.

—–

A heads up to save you all grief if planning a Europe trip after Aug 1.

*Oddly, if you Google “how many countries in the World” the number does not square with Gov Canada’s list of 230 “destinations”.

Their list includes Antarctica but no Vatican or the Holy See on the list…

https://i.imgur.com/zumnBor.png
[plaque outside of Embassy, my image]

So, your free to go visit the Vatican Canada, no restrictions (and don’t burn the Church down, it’s a World Heritage Site).

#19 Doug t on 07.14.21 at 4:20 pm

#6 cuke

Quesnel

#20 Overheardyou on 07.14.21 at 4:22 pm

I wonder why there is little support from the voting base regarding shifting risk to lenders, if they detest capitalism and other’s who have more than they, it would make sense to ‘punish’ the profit making banks and lenders.

#21 Sara on 07.14.21 at 4:23 pm

3 S.Bby on 07.14.21 at 3:25 pm
Government doesn’t have the balls to really do anything to lower housing prices. The taxes they levy only affect non-voters (foreigners) for the most part and they won’t touch the “hard earned equity” of the boomers.

================
Do you mean they will touch the “hard earned equity” of home owners under age 55?

Or do you mean no one under age 55 owns a house?

Or do you mean no one under age 55 has any equity in a house?

#22 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 4:26 pm

Here’s the Faron we know and love discussing the hot weather. Seems to comport himself well:

https://globalnews.ca/video/7989455/the-connection-between-bcs-heat-wave-and-climate-change

#23 IHCTD9 on 07.14.21 at 4:29 pm

“Among those people who don’t have real estate, 65% want some. Between the ages of 18 and 29, that number soars to 80%.”
———

Man, am I ever glad I came down the chute prior to 1981 (happy 40th millennials!). Gen Z ain’t looking much better.

When we decided to buy a house, we went out, looked at a few, made a below asking offer with 3 conditions subject to a home inspector giving a thumbs up – and sealed the deal. House was on the market for months before we scooped it up for 123k. The whole thing was a stroll in the park.

20 years later we’re still here, and every time we’re tempted to move up, the current day RE insanity has us saying the hell with it – and we do a Reno/upgrade instead.

I’m looking forward to the Trudeau Liberals further driving our house value up. I never would have expected the gta style y/y appreciation to reach us this far from the gta, but I guess that’s what happens when Ottawa just sits there doing nothing while watching it all go into the crapper.

Trudeau and his lapdog (the BOC) have probably put a couple 100k in my back pocket since 2015. I don’t agree with much of what he does, but hey – here’s looking at another pile of cash coming my way.

Even you Liberal voters know it’s the truth – right? Y’all are going to vote me up another dump truck load of loonies. There’s just NO WAY that Trudeau will do the right thing for future Canadians. It’s all about *right now*.

Oh well, I’ll keep trying to get angry…

#24 J on 07.14.21 at 4:35 pm

Most optimistic scenario for the fall and next year – vaccinations work and cases continue to dwindle. variants (like Delta) become more contagious but milder as the virus becomes endemic, just like the common cold and the flu. Some boosters may become necessary. We slowly go back to normal. Big pharma wins by having had the chance to introduce MRNA tech to widespread public. (MRNA boosters and for flu coming) Government wins by introducing vaccine passports which will be extended to cover our financial information, health, tax, etc., until it contains all necessary information for proper surveillance. Canadians prove true to our national,character by not caring much, as long as we are ‘safe’. civil liberties organizations will hold demonstrations to which, on average 12-15 Canadians will show up.

most pessimistic scenario. Variants, and the un axed are blamed for another surge in infections. Having ‘obedience-trained’ the vast majority of the population to stay 6 feet apart and not hug your grandkids without government approval, governments around the world see an irresistible opportunity to further get the population under control. (What exactly they gain out of this remains to be seen) . Force may be used. Or further inducements for good behaviour (in Canada this started with the legalization of pot (the Lotus Eaters) then CERB, and the holding out of UBI …then getting to travel, eat out in restaurants , etc….(Pavlov’s experiments on dogs is probably illustrative here)…then more divide and conquer thru Rainbow politics, BLM and indigenous issue, all the while using Russia and China as the enemy…

1. They want more control in order to compete with China
2. They want more control because events will swirl out of control due to climate change, disasters, civil unrest, war, and stress on the financial system
3. ?

Cheers

#25 IHCTD9 on 07.14.21 at 4:47 pm

1 in 2 Canadians are over 40.

Labour participation is around 60%

80%+ of population growth is from immigration.

Immigrating to Canada gets a lot tougher once you’re past 35 years of age.

Trudeau just racked up a Trillion in debt, it will need to be serviced by someone.

Do the math.

#26 Cheese on 07.14.21 at 4:58 pm

I’ve got my van, down by the Ottawa river ready to move in.

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 5:03 pm

@#21 Sail Away

Better hair day for that interview.

#28 TurnerNation on 07.14.21 at 5:03 pm

Hold on a sec….many times last year I suggested how people might get herded off their land & sustainability and jammed into the UN Smart Cities. If insurance companies deny service to rural. If small towns must cut first responder services.

“A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the increase in premiums, about 20 per cent to 30 per cent in many cases, has been driven by a shrinking pool of insurers, more claims in an increasingly litigious climate and uncertainty around payout amounts. Cities need insurance to protect against claims in the event of accidents on municipal properties or roads, and to deal with risks including cyberattacks and natural disasters — so forgoing coverage is not an option. The 444 municipalities in Ontario would face a combined revenue shortfall of about $2.4-billion because of the pandemic, the province’s Financial Accountability Office said in December. Waterloo, Ont., insurance pool risk manager Brian McEnhill expects a “significant” increase in premiums this year.
© 2021 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

—-
—-As posted before:

#10 TurnerNation on 04.13.21 at 2:13 pm
What I was getting at a while ago on here. How to force people out of the rural areas and sustainability, and get them into the UN Smart Cites – stacked with condos? Insurance denial. And/or cutting rural services (First Responders)

#41 TurnerNation on 08.09.16 at 9:26 pm
I predict mandatory “Green audits” will come and render most older, rural home unsaleable without massive renos.
Ontario is on track for a Cali-styled debt refi and austerity measures will cripple rural first responders.
For this reason, rural insurance policies will be tinged with unobtainum. They’ll know a foundation or body is all that’ll be left after you dial nine eleven.

………….

— Same as Toronto, Hamilton field hospitals.

Vancouver Convention Centre hospital, never used for COVID, dismantled(vancouversun.com)

————-

– Things are moving fast. A global system of control run by Big Tech. Don’t call it a New System? Watch out for WrongThink.
https://jigsaw.google.com/approach/
“With so much of our world existing online, the stakes for the free exchange of information on the internet have never been higher. We combine cutting-edge research with experimental technology to identify emerging issues—from censorship and harassment to disinformation and violent extremism—that threaten open societies”

——————————————

#29 Sydneysider on 07.14.21 at 5:06 pm

“qui ne sait pas parler français” surely?

#30 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.14.21 at 5:09 pm

#14 Prince Polo on 07.14.21 at 4:05 pm
=====
You are late to the party .I already wagered 100 years amortization .
Ofcourse as kind souls on this blog pointed out at the time you will have to rebuild every 30 years or so ,which leads to refinancing so perpetual family based mortgage will be the new thing.
If things get really bad I am doubling down and predict that someone will offer interest only mortgages.

#31 T on 07.14.21 at 5:15 pm

#15 Kona on 07.14.21 at 4:07 pm
The “housing crisis” never seems to take into account:

1. That people still buy houses, regardless of the price increases,
2. That new houses continue to increase in size. If there was truly an affordability issue you’d think we would be buying less house, not more,
3. That our houses have a higher level of finishing than ever before. Even entry level homes are coming with hardwood everywhere and stone countertops. Where’s the affordability issue?
4. The rate of home ownership continues to increase.

The housing crisis seems to be less about people not being able to buy a house and more about people not being able to buy the house that they want.

————

It’s about intelligent people not wanting to saddle themselves with lifelong debt for the ‘privilege’ of ‘owning’ real estate.

Most people believe living house rich and cash poor is the path to success. It’s worked over the last 20 years, so can’t blame them. However you can feel the stress this has caused society – it’s hardly a decent way to live.

#32 BlogDog123 on 07.14.21 at 5:20 pm

Of course kids want the detached house. That’s the gold standard of “I’ve made it.” Anything else is deemed “beneath what my parents did or tell me what to buy.”

Can’t have a big shaggy dog living in my 600 sq.ft. condo. Not going to have it ! So let’s start slamming “Foreign Buyers”, “Shady Money Laundering” and other red herrings.

My local politician appeases the NIMBY neighbours who are opposing building higher density in old parts of town… Nothing helps get re-elected than feeding the NIMBY folks. Keeping their neighbourhood prices up and the “character” of the streets with their trees: old, big, leafy & tall !

#33 Rick Boswick on 07.14.21 at 5:33 pm

DELETED.

#34 Steven Rowlandson on 07.14.21 at 5:35 pm

“Democracy may be about to fail us. Again.”

It can not be otherwise. It is the nature of the beast.

It went from being a method of electing a government and decision making to an irresponsible PC ideology based on the notion that I am as good as you and for it to be any other way is intolerable.

#35 In Dog We Trust on 07.14.21 at 5:38 pm

It wont be T2 changing the taxes,,, it’ll be the States… In the 1950s, the corporate share of US federal tax revenue was 35%. Today, it’s down to 7%.

—— Additionally, in the 1950s, a typical CEO made 20 times the salary of his or her average worker. Last year, CEO pay at an S&P 500 Index firm soared to an average of 361 times more than the average rank-and-file worker.

—— So how to pay for all the COVID government spending – Restore the corporate tax rate. That’s how.

#36 Freedom First on 07.14.21 at 5:44 pm

Dawgs, Democracy is nowhere to be seen, and where is John Galt?

Freedom First

#37 Louis XIV on 07.14.21 at 5:55 pm

Your french is very good Mr. turner … you should consider moving from lunenberg (a lovely place that i visited in 1998) in Quebec where the wokeism movement is much less present than in the rest of Canada. Let us not forget that for a long time, French Canadians were considered as the “white negroes of America” ​​(https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/negres-blancs-d'amerique ) and that this woke political current has fewer followers among the French-speaking population who are already scalded. Hudson, near Montreal or the Eastern Townships with places like Knowlton would charm you. Anglophone populations rooted in Quebec who flourish freely and benefiting from the joie de vivre of Quebecers. a win-win situation!
P.s houses are lot cheaper than Toronto…

#38 Michael in-north-york on 07.14.21 at 5:56 pm

#2 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.14.21 at 3:22 pm

Crystal Ball Wednesday.: Howe we will pay for all of the above ?
The Government will introduce a special Canada COVID Recovery bond .With an estimated 2 Trillion CAD in registered assets ( RRSP, TFSA,Employer) , everyone must hold 25% of their registered assets in these bonds. Maturity will be 50 years,with a CPI like yield, convertible at time of passing .
===

That won’t be of much use. Most of registered asset holders already have between 20% and 40% in bonds, in order to rebalance in case of a stock market dip. If they replace their regular bonds with the Covid Recovery bond, then they will try to sell their regular bonds. Same effect on the bond market as simply issuing more regular government bonds.

#39 Zed on 07.14.21 at 6:09 pm

Why the need to amortize the full value of the house?

In Switzerland, you need to bring in 20% as cash down, you then pay down the loan to 50% equity of the house and then you can pay only the interest if you like.

It is a good system, you keep the payments low, invest the difference. Why have your money tied in a house?

Canada doesn’t even have to go all-in like CH and allow the interest to be tax deductable.

Less amortization does not reduce the RE prices but makes payments easier, i think that lower monthlies is what people want.

#40 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 6:11 pm

#36 Freedom First on 07.14.21 at 5:44 pm

Dawgs, Democracy is nowhere to be seen, and where is John Galt?

——–

Oh, John expounds endlessly in his retirement home here in the Gulch, often falling asleep in the middle of a rant. Dagny’s back with Hank. Nobody had kids because they were all too worried about productive capitalism, so a bunch of geriatrics hobbling around. Don’t expect much support here. Same trajectory as the celibate (awesome succession plan) Shakers.

#41 Faron on 07.14.21 at 6:12 pm

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 5:03 pm
@#21 Sail Away

Better hair day for that interview.

Har. Willing to grant either of you or Garth an exclusive interview with my hair.

Luckily, seems no one here saw me live on CBC Toronto yesterday. Came off of a phone interview with a Seattle paper and right into a rapidly scheduled live televised. Hair tamer was nowhere to be found. Hair was top notch during my CBS Los Angeles interview, but that was radio. You know how that goes.

Looking forward to chatting with Bdwy about entropy and enthalpy. I sure didn’t learn much about those while being top of class in physical chemistry, hope he/she/zhe can fill me in.

#42 cuke and tomato picker on 07.14.21 at 6:14 pm

Doug T no I loved the Okanagan from Osoyoos to Vernon
however now I like Sidney and the Saanich Peninsula
more we also did one year in Chetwynd so we know the north.

#43 45north on 07.14.21 at 6:17 pm

So a new survey (by Ontario realtors, but still with some creds) reports 70% of respondents think addressing the “housing crisis” should be a top priority of government. In fact, the same poll discovered a shocking 46% of people in that province are considering moving out of the province just because real estate is perceived as being cheaper elsewhere. (Man, are they in for a surprise…)

What will the federal politicians promise, if elected?

they should promise to use federal influence to reduce the price of housing. Federal influence over interest rates, CMHC regulations and the Bank of Canada which is buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks. Over the course of a year housing prices would go down.

Housing is unaffordable because it costs too much.

#44 S.Bby on 07.14.21 at 6:18 pm

RL lumber down to $521 for July contracts. that’s less than a third of what it was a few months ago.

#45 the Jaguar on 07.14.21 at 6:27 pm

Smoke rolling in to Cowtown today from the BC forest fires. I think there are over 300 at the moment. I am always reminded of the Kenow Mountain Fire down in Waterton Park and how the heroic men and women of the Calgary Fire Department drive their rigs 223 kilometers south to save the historic Prince of Wales Hotel. Their courage will never be forgotten. Here’s a small clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyAFMpvjlpg

Thank you and amen.

#46 kommykim on 07.14.21 at 6:36 pm

#16 TurnerNation on 07.14.21 at 4:14 pm
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762
Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection? Jul 13 , 2021 9:24 AM
Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated – compared to just 1% who had been infected previously.

=======================================

The data is provided almost meaningless. 72 instances of reinfection out of a population of 9 million is just noise. ie: There are 5 million FULLY vaxxed vs 800K recovered people so duh, there’d be less people reinfected after recovery than after being vaxxed. Sheesh!

#47 Mr Canada on 07.14.21 at 6:39 pm

Unlikely are two outcomes: (a) everybody has to return to a 2019-style work week, or (b) anybody (other than IT guys and commissioned sales people) will be allowed to stay 100% remote.

As a sales guy in IT who worked remotely prior to COVID, I can guarantee these two groups will continue to work remotely.

#48 Nonplused on 07.14.21 at 6:39 pm

Well, if the TFSA isn’t going away, I think the PR exemption is pretty safe too. As it should be nobody really makes money owning a house to live in after income taxes, mortgage interest, property taxes, maintenance, condo fees, and inflation. Unless that house is in YYZ or YVR of course. Then maybe you do, but after all these new taxes and fees I’m not sure there either.

#49 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.14.21 at 6:41 pm

#22

Faron did not point out that similar events occurred in the Lytton region in 1941 and most likely 1898 ergo not uncommon in a meteorological time scale.

With localized, misoscale processes (downslope compressional heating under a big high pressure system) there can be limited confidence that an observation site will capture the absolute hottest air. Also, the Lytton site has moved around and changed elevation a few times over the recording period. Also I’m still waiting to hear if the observering device was destroyed in the fire, meaning it cannot be tested to confirm it was calibrated properly to delacre the observations as official.

Bottom line is we cannot with confidence conclude anything about climate from a single event even if it “seems to match our expectations” (sorry, that’s not science, just fuzzy thinking).

Listen closely to the interview and understand how the Climate issue is misunderstood and is being hijacked for political expediency (and scaring young people WAY too much).

And Dr. Koonin was a Obama advisor:

https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/03/20/watch-former-obama-biden-federal-scientist-dr-steve-koonin-declares-his-climate-dissent-served-as-former-energy-dept-undersecretary/

#50 My Body My Choice on 07.14.21 at 6:46 pm

A map of the 45 churches that have been vandalized or burned this year:

https://tnc.news/2021/07/12/a-map-of-every-church-burnt-or-vandalized-since-the-residential-school-announcements/

Six things the media got wrong about the graves:

https://tnc.news/2021/07/12/six-things-the-media-got-wrong-about-the-graves-found-near-residential-schools/

Candace Malcolm does a good job of debunking the misinformation peddled by the Liberal media. True North is one of the few news organizations with integrity left in this country.

Trudeau 2.0 the Boy Blunder doesn’t seem overly concerned about 45 churches being attacked. The Groupies, Normies and Muppets think Trudeau is doing a good job … God help us.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 6:47 pm

@#41 Faron.

Just wait for the “ambush” interview when the station stick you live on the feed with some tinfoil hat climate denier to get a boost in ratings.

You should get some one liners down pat for that eventuality.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 6:54 pm

@# 37 King Louis
“Townships with places like Knowlton would charm you. Anglophone populations rooted in Quebec who flourish freely and benefiting from the joie de vivre of Quebecers. a win-win situation!”

++++

They’d still tear down his Canadian Flag

#53 Liberals are debt junkies on 07.14.21 at 6:57 pm

Garth, the Trudeau Liberals will give every Canadian with mortgage debt a $25,000 non-refundable tax credit. They would have to provide proof of mortgage payments of at least $25,000 a year to get this.

#54 Diharv on 07.14.21 at 6:59 pm

Why would he call an election? He’s already PM, his motives are clear. He wants a majority so he can shove a ruinous socialist agenda down our throats after how many years of social and financial mismanagement? Do you think there are enough confused people in Canada in addition to the ones who ave voted for him in the past to give him this mandate?

#55 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 7:03 pm

#49 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.14.21 at 6:41 pm
#22

Faron did not point out that similar events occurred in the Lytton region in 1941 and most likely 1898 ergo not uncommon in a meteorological time scale.

———

Maybe, maybe not. Hard to know what the station kept and cut. I thought our newest celebrity came off level-headed, professional and believable.

#56 morrey on 07.14.21 at 7:13 pm

new clots of people in town with manbuns and electric scooters.

That elicited a good belly laugh!! It’s also a scary image for the country folk.

#57 Quintilian on 07.14.21 at 7:13 pm

Boomers are an enigma, and there is definitely some dishonest and faulty logic here at play.

By most measures we are doing better than most countries.
The pandemic is under control.
Most of you are benefitting from asset prices that are appreciating by the minute.
The economy is on a skyward projection.

Yet you boomers unfairly continue to criticize the current government and levy all kinds of insults when a genuflect would be a more appropriate response at the mere mention of Justin Trudeau.

Yes, I may be a bit dramatic in expressing my view, but your contradictory position is excruciatingly painful to wade through.

#58 Grunt on 07.14.21 at 7:13 pm

“Never buy anything you can’t touch.”

You heard that wisdom years ago right here from Garth.

#59 binky barnes on 07.14.21 at 7:21 pm

Perhaps his minions have no clue, but just you wait until the PM PM (Mr. Justin Trudeau) gets stuck in to this housing mess. He will sort it out. Yessir, he will indeed.

BB

#60 Drinking on 07.14.21 at 7:52 pm

Of course Socks would call an election in Sept or perhaps Oct just before the Covid/flu/cold/ or whatever will spike once again in November/December, he is a typical politician looking to cash in, cannot blame him, I would do the same. By now we are all familiar with the charts of when this nasty virus spikes.

As stated by many; another term of Socks; especially a majority will be disasters for all including home buyers, there is no way Bank of Canada aka Central Bank will turn a blind eye to it. Drastic measures, perhaps not, but enough to teach many a lesson and then some over the course.
As another poster stated, a severe recession is what is needed; hope not, so many are just getting by but a major attitude adjustment is needed.

#61 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.14.21 at 7:55 pm

#55 wrote

Maybe, maybe not. Hard to know what the station kept and cut. I thought our newest celebrity came off level-headed, professional and believable.

******

I think he was professional and not as Alarmist as many others (the host seemed to be full on religious believer, as many have become on this issue).

And to be clear, I acknowledge CO2 is a Greenhouse Gas and has an impact, but as Dr. Koonin points out, the IPCC reports themselves are much more modest in expected effects if you go deep enough. Like very litlet impact.

I personally think it’s sad that we have been persuaded to ignore the full potential wealth our resources offer, that could do so much good for the nation’s people (like Norway) if we would just make the most of them.

#62 jim on 07.14.21 at 8:04 pm

This inflationary government and central bank governor should be ousted for their irresponsible behaviour.

#63 Lead Paint on 07.14.21 at 8:04 pm

Good job Faron! Now you’re famous.

#64 D.D. Corkum on 07.14.21 at 8:04 pm

#16 TurnerNation on 07.14.21 at 4:14 pm

“Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?”

What a pointless question. Regardless of the answer, its still helpful to get the vaccine.

#65 Out West on 07.14.21 at 8:07 pm

We assume that the new GG will not do what she is supposed to do and tell JT that he was elected for a 5 year term, and, baring a non confidence vote, will be expected to serve at least 4 of them. Oh wait …..

#66 Jane24 on 07.14.21 at 8:12 pm

This plague is not in the back mirror Garth, it is on its way back yet again. Here in Britain we had a very high and very early vaccination rate but our 4th wave was at 42,000 cases in 24 hours yesterday. Just 50 dead in one day so not bad but 42,000 covid cases in one day is staggering. This is probably an understatement as many folk are sick of the whole thing now and have either deleted the NHS covid reporting app or are ignoring it.

At over 50 I have been told that I will get a 3rd vaccine in October to protect me from Covid this Fall as no-one has any idea how long the protection lasts.

Britain has been one covid cycle ahead of Canada throughout this whole mess so wave number 4 is on its way guys, just in time for the Canadian Fall. Act accordingly. This 4th wave is just kicking off in the EU. They are also about 2 months behind Britain and many countries there are very vaccine hesitant.

#67 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 07.14.21 at 8:22 pm

The commute to Toronto on Monday from London on the 401 had very few cars in the Enroute Service stops and the food courts were empty. Normally in July the line up is out the door. The nail shop and hair salon in the corner strip mall was empty of clients yesterday. Is the real Canadian Consumer covid comeback just a wish as opposed to wishful thinking by our annoited pointy heads?

#68 Faron on 07.14.21 at 8:24 pm

#49 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.14.21 at 6:41 pm

Your continued focus is unfortunate because is shows you are trying to prove us wrong with cherry picking and because the stations wasn’t used in our analysis, so isn’t needed for us to be correct. We only mentioned Lytton tangentially. Regardless, we could have added it to the lines of evidence and it would have fit in, hand-in-glove. Still, to play along and give you a seat at the big-persons table, here is a list of the top ten hottest daily temperature values from all MSC stations in Lytton (The third column is the count of observations made in the year: large numbers in ’20 and ’21 indicate hourly data. The numbers > 365 in years before 2020 indicate that more than one station was operating simultaneously. My query pulls the largest number of those stations):

Year T Nobs
———-|—–|——
1928 41.1 732
2020 41.4 18917
1998 41.5 717
1981 41.5 730
1942 41.7 730
2004 41.8 725
2006 42.1 1159
1971 42.2 730
1941 44.4 730
2021 49.6 9542

You are right that 1941 was hot, but not nearly as hot. It was still 5.2 degrees cooler than the recent record (that was reset thrice this year). Here are the MSC climate IDs I’m looking at: ‘1114746’,’1114745′,’1114741′,’1114740′,’1114738′,’1114739′. If you see other data, I’m open to feedback. Regardless, Lytton wasn’t used and isn’t needed to reach our conclusions.

I suggest you read our scientific summary at least before you make an ass out of yourself again (second time going around the merry-go-round with you).

To dabble in the mechanics, here’s why you are wrong: The overarching environment under the high pressure system was that of adiabatic subsidence. Adiabatic downslope flow couldn’t enhance the warming above what would have occurred owing to that subsidence. Lots of work to do, but the smoking gun seems to be a very hot lower-mid troposphere and also high column-integrated humidity helping to limit radiative cooling and enhance downwelling longwave.

Our thinking wasn’t fuzzy in the least and our methods have a decade of research behind them and hundreds of peer reviewed papers. The only fuzz is the necessary uncertainty inherent in any and all scientific studies. My words in the interview had to be fuzzy because it was for a non-specialist audience. If I explained our statistical methods, in actual scientific terms, the audience’s eye’s would glaze over and you would accuse me of obfuscation or technobabble.

I offered Garth’s steerage a chance at a Q and A almost a week go now. I have nothing to defend here. We are on very solid ground in our result.

Regarding Bdwy’s (yours?) earlier: we are not grifters. Our institute has fairly diverse funding that includes a perpetual endowment and we provide free and low cost analyses and data to people like Sail Away that far outweighs the cost of our existence to the taxpayer. Much of what we do would be hired out to contractors that would charge substantially more. The savings, in the end, go back to private industry and hence, your concerns.

Finally, for nerd-fun and in the name of openness of code, here’s the SQL to get the Lytton results. We hold a billion observations and this searches them in about 0.33 seconds. Good times:

SELECT extract(year from obs_time), max(datum), count(datum) FROM obs_raw NATURAL JOIN meta_history NATURAL JOIN meta_station NATURAL JOIN meta_vars WHERE native_id IN (‘1114746′,’1114745′,’1114741′,’1114740′,’1114738′,’1114739’) AND standard_name = ‘air_temperature’ GROUP BY (extract(year from obs_time)) ORDER BY max(datum);

#69 Faron on 07.14.21 at 8:30 pm

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 6:47 pm

@#41 Faron.

Just wait for the “ambush” interview when the station stick you live on the feed with some tinfoil hat climate denier to get a boost in ratings.

You should get some one liners down pat for that eventuality.

Ha, I’m open to non hair-related suggestions.

#70 Quintilian on 07.14.21 at 8:53 pm

“A little over 36 days following that media event we’ll have an election. The third Monday in September seems a safe bet.”

That’s just crazy talk.

Who in their right mind from the opposition commit political suicide with a vote of non confidence to a Liberal Budget with over a trillion dollars on social spending and green economy while supporting oil sands in Alberta?

Be ready for the best budget in Canada’s history.

#71 Millennial 1%er on 07.14.21 at 8:58 pm

Democracy. Yeah, good one.

#72 OK, Doomer on 07.14.21 at 9:00 pm

Why do the governments let this housing mess continue to bloat?? On the surface, it makes no sense, as food clothing and shelter are basic necessities. Making any of those three more expensive destabilizes a country. Just ask Cuba.

But if you reframe the question as the governments having no choice but to fuel the bloat for their own survival, things start to make sense. Mills who want houses are a small portion of the electorate. They’re being thrown to the wolves to mollify homeowners who have no assets other than their homes. Homeowners without other assets have no hope at living on anything but cat food in their retirement if the housing bloat stops. And they elect governments, not the houseless Mills.

It’s time for Mills to wake up and realize that T2 is their worst nightmare, not the Boomers.

#73 IHCTD9 on 07.14.21 at 9:10 pm

#57 Quintilian on 07.14.21 at 7:13 pm
Boomers are an enigma, and there is definitely some dishonest and faulty logic here at play.

By most measures we are doing better than most countries.
The pandemic is under control.
Most of you are benefitting from asset prices that are appreciating by the minute.
The economy is on a skyward projection.

Yet you boomers unfairly continue to criticize the current government and levy all kinds of insults when a genuflect would be a more appropriate response at the mere mention of Justin Trudeau.

Yes, I may be a bit dramatic in expressing my view, but your contradictory position is excruciatingly painful to wade through.
——

Phew! I was thinking you were going to say you weren’t going to vote Liberal this time because Trudeau has destroyed the prosperity of your generation via an utterly insurmountable mountain of debt!

That was close! I’m likely not going to vote Lib, so I need every Trudeau fanboi out there to stay true to the colours if I expect to see another couple hundred grand in asset inflation for doing nothing!

If I were to ever genuflect in the presence of Trudeau, it would be purely an acknowledgement of his willingness to totally screw an entire generation of young Canadians for the benefit of the previous ones.

Don’t think about that though, concentrate on the SJW stuff, apologies, and costumes – that’s real prosperity!

#74 april on 07.14.21 at 9:13 pm

According to Ross Kay, Howestreet, houses have not increased by 22% over the past yr…or is it month, claimed by CREA

#75 Cici on 07.14.21 at 9:21 pm

#21 Sara on 07.14.21 at 4:23 pm
3 S.Bby on 07.14.21 at 3:25 pm
Government doesn’t have the balls to really do anything to lower housing prices. The taxes they levy only affect non-voters (foreigners) for the most part and they won’t touch the “hard earned equity” of the boomers.

================
Do you mean they will touch the “hard earned equity” of home owners under age 55?

Or do you mean no one under age 55 owns a house?

Or do you mean no one under age 55 has any equity in a house?

____________________________________________

He means most boomers have no mortgage debt to speak of, and in many major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, have paper equity now worth at least 5 times more than the original purchase price of their homes.

In general, the under 55 crowd has less equity because they purchased their homes at higher prices, and in many cases have been using them like ATMs to fund their lifestyles (vacations, SUVs, etc.).

And most of the recent millenial purchases have been with low downpayments and high debt ratios, so not much equity there. Right? Unless Mommy and Daddy propped them up with a big loan, but even then… in most cases the balance owing far exceeds the actual skin in the game.

#76 meslippery on 07.14.21 at 9:30 pm

Maybe your office tower in the City could build some sleep rooms with ensuite bathroom and you could stay over.
So two days in the office and work from home the rest of the time. Tillsonburg to Toronto 1Hr46mins /173kms one way. Total weekly commute 346kms or 3.5hrs

#77 bdwy on 07.14.21 at 9:39 pm

DELETED

#78 Cici on 07.14.21 at 9:50 pm

#22 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 4:26 pm
Here’s the Faron we know and love discussing the hot weather. Seems to comport himself well:

https://globalnews.ca/video/7989455/the-connection-between-bcs-heat-wave-and-climate-change
____________________________________________

Yes, fantastic job Faron. Congrats!

#79 The West on 07.14.21 at 10:02 pm

Hate to be that guy Garth…we’ll be in lockdowns before thanksgiving.

#80 greaterfool on 07.14.21 at 10:06 pm

I really really hope this time, some politicians will be smart enough having the right policies for cooling down RE market/house prices.

if any of you are reading Garth’s blog:

the problem is that house becomes financial assets, many Canadians own multiple properties. The past weekend, I heard a friend of friend (who owns 5 properties) owns 10 properties, then another elite/book of record agent owns 26 (yes, twenty-six properties).

Not only these “successful investors” accumulates huge leverage (sub-prime mortgage), which is a risk in a raising rate environment, they inflated the RE prices and lower the inventory as well.

please, don’t increase amortization period, don’t lower the down payment, don’t create new tax like empty tax/foreign-buyer tax etc., issue something which helps make houses a non-financial asset!

#81 Cici on 07.14.21 at 10:13 pm

#46 kommykim
#46 kommykim on 07.14.21 at 6:36 pm

The data is provided almost meaningless. 72 instances of reinfection out of a population of 9 million is just noise. ie: There are 5 million FULLY vaxxed vs 800K recovered people so duh, there’d be less people reinfected after recovery than after being vaxxed. Sheesh!
___________________________________________

EXACTLY. Thanks, so glad you said it so I didn’t have to!

#82 NSNG on 07.14.21 at 10:19 pm

I heard O’Toole interviewed on CKNW today. He is definitely a good talker. He got some great jabs in at T2 and planted some serious seeds of doubt about the guy and I would never vote for T2. Attacking his character is definitely going to be a weapon this election.

I think if he can get the ear of the people, he might be able to do some damage. How much is the question. The lackey media will obviously be a problem but the debates could hurt the PM’s image. It might be the difference between a majority and a minority.

Also, I think Quebec will be a player in this election. Are they enough to make the difference?

#83 Summertime on 07.14.21 at 10:23 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-canada-tapers-massive-stimulus-program-says-inflation-is-temporary-145024601.html

“Once we go back to a restaurant, do we really want a bigger kitchen?” Tiff Macklem said.

Like a real clown. That is his sense of humour. Retirees can go now to a restaurant with the generous CPP they are receiving thanks to the generous indexing by BoC, that is intended to match the increase in cost of living.

Except that ‘inflation’ or whatever measures he is pulling out of his hat/behind is not the increase in cost of living, it is far from it.

Prepare to pay more for a smaller house is my read.

BTW is there anything left in this place as economy besides housing and money printing?

‘transitory inflation’, that made me laugh really hard.
We are entering an era with increased deficits, velocity of money and possibly persistent 2 digits inflation for a very long time while the clowns insist on measuring ‘CPI’ whatever that means, excluding housing (it is ‘capital gains’), applying substitution to food prices and excluding energy (it is volatile) and even that measure proves too scary for the ‘central bankers’ so now they start to openly massage even that basterdized number to justify their idiotic zero rate policies.

Reality is: we are facing double digits persistent inflation for a very long time that will wipe out savers and people on fixed income, zero rates and bold faced lairs who call the whole thing ‘transitory’. With this debt it will be ‘transitory’ for a decade or two and the worse part is that they insist on increasing the debt even faster.

#84 Jake on 07.14.21 at 10:36 pm

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 3:18 pm
A brutal recession cant come soon enough.

I hope you mean real estate because last year for stock markets was certainly “brutal”.

#85 Faron on 07.14.21 at 10:57 pm

#55 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 7:03 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Hard to know what the station kept and cut. I thought our newest celebrity came off level-headed, professional and believable.

Thanks for the kind words especially in light of my treatment of Sail Away.

#86 Puzzled in Mtl on 07.14.21 at 10:57 pm

” 52 Crowdelevatorfartz

Cheap shot at Quebecers! You missed my post regarding my neighbourhood celebrating Canada Day in Montreal.

#87 Ball Bearings on 07.14.21 at 11:22 pm

#78 Cici on 07.14.21 at 9:50 pm
#22 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 4:26 pm
Here’s the Faron we know and love discussing the hot weather. Seems to comport himself well:

https://globalnews.ca/video/7989455/the-connection-between-bcs-heat-wave-and-climate-change
____________________________________________

Yes, fantastic job Faron. Congrats!

________________________________________

My wife was disappointed when she watched this … she was expecting someone taller, smarter and much more handsome. So she married me.

#88 Bob Dog on 07.14.21 at 11:30 pm

Listening to Rush the other day to anticipate Bastille Day and came across my favourite Rush song. Couldn’t help but relate the lyrics to inequality in Canada.

Trees.

There is unrest in Vancouver
There is trouble by the sea
For the young just want fair housing
And the old ignore their pleas
The trouble with the young folk
(And they’re quite convinced they’re right)
They say the boomers are too wealthy
And they grab up all in sight
But the old can’t help their feelings
If they like how much they’re made
And they wonder why the young folk
Can’t be happy underpaid.

#89 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 11:38 pm

#85 Faron on 07.14.21 at 10:57 pm
#55 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 7:03 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Hard to know what the station kept and cut. I thought our newest celebrity came off level-headed, professional and believable.

———

Thanks for the kind words especially in light of my treatment of Sail Away.

———

All good. Just a brief superheating anomaly before reversion to the mean.

#90 NSNG on 07.14.21 at 11:43 pm

modern democracy:

Two wolves and a lamb deciding what’s for lunch.

#91 KVC on 07.15.21 at 12:51 am

Democracy may be about to fail us. Again.

We never had it to begin with since this planet’s existence. Cavemen seen better days when they can bash another brain out. Slavery is alive and well in so called “utopia” of the modern era.

#92 Wrk.dover on 07.15.21 at 5:51 am

NS TPP goes up by COLA-1% to a max of 6%.

As of April 30, inflation was under 1%, so no raise if any ’till next year at this time.

so, it must be true….no inflation!

What a relief.

#93 Zorro Ideltkos on 07.15.21 at 6:44 am

Listening to Rush the other day to anticipate Bastille Day and came across my favourite Rush song. Couldn’t help but relate the lyrics to inequality in Canada.

Trees.

There is unrest in Vancouver
There is trouble by the sea
For the young just want fair housing
And the old ignore their pleas
The trouble with the young folk
(And they’re quite convinced they’re right)
They say the boomers are too wealthy
And they grab up all in sight
But the old can’t help their feelings
If they like how much they’re made
And they wonder why the young folk
Can’t be happy underpaid.

Nicely done….Neil is smiling.

#94 B on 07.15.21 at 7:41 am

Hi Garth – would love to hear your thoughts one day on strategies for addressing climate change. Despite being a fiscal conservative, you’ve bucked the stereotype by actually acknowledging the problem in several previous posts. To me it is the single most important voting issue, and I wish the CPC would offer up legitimate options to the problem rather than just lip service or outright denial. Thanks for your consideration!

#95 TerziogluTerritory aka Prince Polo on 07.15.21 at 7:43 am

A few days late to the party, but Sinan gets full credit for this one. Run. Run, really fast; away from this train-wreck.

Launched last year, the Smith Manoeuvre certified professional (SMCP) accreditation program aims to train not only advisors but also mortgage brokers, accountants, and other financial professionals who often help their clients use the approach of transforming non-tax-deductible mortgage debt into a tax-deductible investment loan.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/globe-advisor/advisor-news/article-new-accreditation-may-lead-to-growth-in-use-of-the-smith-manouevre/

#96 Brunett43 on 07.15.21 at 8:09 am

Wouldn’t you agree that bidding wars are a big contributor to inflating the housing market? Should there be some kind of system that monitors market value?. I know it’s nuts out there. But R/E agents have become blood sucking leaches when you see that every listing these days says “we’re taking bids” on every blood property. I totally despise them.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:14 am

@#84 Jake
“I hope you mean real estate because last year for stock markets was certainly “brutal”.”

+++
Recession, Stagflation, Reset……call it what you will.

I am talking about a drastic change in interest rates , housing prices, mortgages, employment, food, inflation, etc etc etc.
If the stock market gets kicked in the nads…..so be it.
Short term pain for long term gain.
The current uppa uppa uppa for everything is unsustainable.
Jobs jobs everywhere and no one to fill them?
Time for the jobs to go away for a while and let thousands get bumped off CERB and go on the scraps of finite EI and welfare if thats what it takes.
Time for the politicians to realize they can’t burn through billions of dollars day in and day out without raising taxes to crushing, punitive levels.

But you can toss out my rant with the dirty dishwater
It’s inevitable something painful is going to happen if this continues the way it has.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:25 am

@#86 Puzzled in Mtl
“Cheap shot at Quebecers! You missed my post regarding my neighbourhood celebrating Canada Day in Montreal.”

+++

They welcome the Canadian Flag in Quebec?
I can wave the Canadian Flag on Fete National in Quebec city without abuse?

Well. It doesnt really matter.
The way Trudeau is spending money that we dont have….the Canadian flag will eventually be replaced by the 51st star on the US flag.
Maybe it’ll be a tiny Maple Leaf.
And Quebec may actually get to stand on its own two fiscal feet without equalization payments from Canada.
Wave that Fleur de Lis proudly.
Unfortunately the “new” US border will be longer
East, west, north and south.

#99 joe kahn on 07.15.21 at 8:32 am

Just because I cant stand Trudeau, I do not wish Canada a recession or bad news. We are all in the same boat. Let us hope Canadians Elect a Fiscally moderate government. Wishing everyone good luck.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 8:32 am

@#Ball Bearings.
“My wife was disappointed when she watched this … she was expecting someone taller, smarter and much more handsome. So she married me.”

++++

Sara’s last name is Bearings?

#101 Dharma Bum on 07.15.21 at 9:07 am

Re: Faron et al.

I have yet to hear a climate change interview, debate, discussion, or documentary that wasn’t anything but speculation, conjecture, guessing games, polemics, hysteria, ideological, hedging, anecdotal, hyperbolic, economically twisted, emotional, politically charged, subversive, pseudo-scientific, ulteriorly motivated, alarmist, selectively researched, antagonistic, highly disputable, questionably evidenced, or remotely reliable.
The propagators and deniers are equally at fault. They each have their own selfish agendas, which skew the so-called “evidence” either way.
The topic is totally tiresome. Virtually nonsensical.
Eventually, we will reach an equilibrium of sorts, and the human race will survive.
Not to worry. Chill the eff out.
Elon Musk will save the world.

#102 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 07.15.21 at 9:11 am

DELETED

#103 45north on 07.15.21 at 9:16 am

D.D. Corkum

“Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?”

What a pointless question. Regardless of the answer, its still helpful to get the vaccine.

The point is natural infection does give protection. The opposing view is that the vaccine is the only way to get protection.

The point becomes central when considering the next virus.

#104 the jaguar on 07.15.21 at 10:00 am

@ 101 Dharma Bum……..
It’s ‘ Adaptation versus Mitigation’, and the mitigation ship sailed some time ago. Time to get realistic and stop building in high risk areas. Too many people is another issue. Globalization and all these goods being moved all over the damn place. We need more local sustainable self sufficient communities. O.k…..I’ll step up and run against T2 and whip his butt with my riding crop. Outta the way naysayers….. Feeling feisty today…

#105 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 10:05 am

#93 Zorro Ideltkos on 07.15.21 at 6:44 am
Listening to Rush the other day to anticipate Bastille Day and came across my favourite Rush song. Couldn’t help but relate the lyrics to inequality in Canada.

Trees.

There is unrest in Vancouver
There is trouble by the sea
For the young just want fair housing
And the old ignore their pleas
The trouble with the young folk
(And they’re quite convinced they’re right)
They say the boomers are too wealthy
And they grab up all in sight
But the old can’t help their feelings
If they like how much they’re made
And they wonder why the young folk
Can’t be happy underpaid.
———

There are two organizations located in Ottawa that are pretty much 90% responsible for our housing prices being what they are. Boomers and Gen X are just the happy/lucky recipients of the fallout. Regular folks can’t control fiscal or monetary policy short of their vote.

The kids have supported multiple times, and are going to support these organizations again come the fall.

So really… who is to blame?

IMHO, houses in Canada are well on the way to being only for the rich.

#106 BillyBob on 07.15.21 at 10:16 am

My my we’ve come a long way. Seems like just yesterday when my mere mention of having casually identified Faron IRL was cause for much teeth-gnashing and fierce verbal attacks. I’m sure there will be some exquisite rationalization about how that was quite justified. *yawn*

A few tips? Faron I think in your next interview you should try and show your true colours though and not choose your words so carefully. Why such timidity in front of a camera? You just looked SO uncomfortable from the effort of resisting talking down to her. I would have LOVED to hear you tell that host “Still, to play along and give you a seat at the big-persons table” or call people clowns and such. A bit hypocritical to temper your real nature simply due to the medium, n’est pas?

And for SURE keep saying at least once per interview “As a scientist” just in case people forget (or can’t read a screen caption). After all, science is held in such high regard these days due to it’s purity and lack of political and financial interference.

But in fairness I’m sure this must be a very frustrating time to be a climate scientist. Reduced to documenting events, but unable to change a thing. Well, it’s 15 minutes of fame I guess.

“As a pilot”, I’m just gonna keep using my science and expertise to keep bringing people the staggering amount of crap they think they need. The air cargo industry is BOOMING and man it’s good to be back in the seat. And the worldwide opening is only beginning. As the Jag would say, what a great time to be alive!

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:42 am

#89 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 11:38 pm
#85 Faron on 07.14.21 at 10:57 pm
#55 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 7:03 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Hard to know what the station kept and cut. I thought our newest celebrity came off level-headed, professional and believable.

———

Thanks for the kind words especially in light of my treatment of Sail Away.

———

All good. Just a brief superheating anomaly before reversion to the mean.
————————
What’s with the mushy stuff?
Go hug yourselves somewhere else.
Gives credence to the theory that Faron and Sailo are the same person.

#108 Russ on 07.15.21 at 10:43 am

Faron on 07.14.21 at 8:30 pm

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 6:47 pm

@#41 Faron.

Just wait for the “ambush” interview when the station stick you live on the feed with some tinfoil hat climate denier to get a boost in ratings.

You should get some one liners down pat for that eventuality.

Ha, I’m open to non hair-related suggestions.
=========================================

Here’s one:

When the antagonist states there isn’t one global warming model that hasn’t been correct..

you reply, “If I had a SuperModel in the office then I wouldn’t be working on my computer.”

–pause for laughs–

Cheers, R

#109 Russ on 07.15.21 at 10:44 am

Oops,

errata, “has been correct”

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:46 am

#101 Karma Bum
Melon Musk will save the world.
——————————
Now you got me worried.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:57 am

#103 45north on 07.15.21 at 9:16 am
D.D. Corkum

“Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?”

What a pointless question. Regardless of the answer, its still helpful to get the vaccine.

The point is natural infection does give protection. The opposing view is that the vaccine is the only way to get protection.
————————
Of course, natural infection does give protection.
But it can take years and many deaths and over burdened health care systems to get herd immunity.
And the mutations could prolong the party forever.
Why not get the jab, and get it over with.
What have you got to lose?
Your manlihood or silly pride?

#112 Brett in Calgary on 07.15.21 at 11:07 am

Just a point of clarification, the PCR tests used to detect COVID pick up it’s genetic material (sometimes scraps of past infections) and do not necessarily represent active infections with actual symptoms.

Of course COVID will be back in the fall in Canada, that is a given, we can’t eradicate it just minimize damage. That’s why it’s important to get vaccinated and experience mild symptoms instead of hospitalization.

—————————————–
#66 Jane24 on 07.14.21 at 8:12 pm
This plague is not in the back mirror Garth, it is on its way back yet again. Here in Britain we had a very high and very early vaccination rate but our 4th wave was at 42,000 cases in 24 hours yesterday.

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 11:12 am

#106 Billy Bob
Was just waiting for you to chime in.
Jealous?
Ever had your 15 minutes of fame?
And about the world wide opening?
Not from what I’m hearing and reading.
We are cancelling our yearly trips to China and Europe again. Too much uncertainty.
Staycation again.
Still many places to visit in the Best Place on Earth.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 11:21 am

FWIW
I’ll chip in for a Weird Science T-shirt for Faron if he promises to wear it in the TV next interview…..

Sorry BillyBob.
You’re not famous yet.

#115 Dr V on 07.15.21 at 11:52 am

95 Prince Polo – what exactly are you describing as a “train wreck”? The Smith manouevre in general, or its potential repurcussions in the economic
environment you expect to unfold, or the possibility
that certain persons will be hurt financially due to their
personal economic situation?

Similar to holding your mortgage in your RRSP, this
may work well for some people.

The important thing is that people realize that in the end, employed in its purest form, the manouevre does
not pay down your mortgage, in exchange for building an investment portfolio.

So this is similar to having an interest only mortgage,
and using any principal re-payment to invest, with the difference being interest deductibility.

The two main risks are future interest rates on this debt, and market risk on investments, along with
personal risks of job loss, divorce, illness etc. These all apply no matter what avenue is followed.

#116 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 12:24 pm

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 10:42 am

Gives credence to the theory that Faron and Sailo are the same person.

——-

Would that be…. Sail Far?

#117 Cici on 07.15.21 at 12:41 pm

#101 Dharma Bum on 07.15.21 at 9:07 am

So many useless words wasted to make pedantic accusations… so uum, maybe YOU should “chill the eff out” and actually listen to Faron’s interview, because it was the opposite of all those things you ranted about.

And if you’d care to check his research, he provided lots of links and sources.

#118 Blacksheep on 07.15.21 at 12:48 pm

Ponzius # 111,

“Why not get the jab, and get it over with.
What have you got to lose?
Your manlihood or silly pride?”
———————————————-
Lab rat # 1, asks lab rat # 2: “Did you get the jab yet?”

Lab rat # 2 responds: “No, I’m waiting for the human trials to be completed”

#119 Stoph on 07.15.21 at 12:53 pm

@ Faron

Honest tip. Rewatch your interviews and figure out what you’d like to do differently next time. Toastmasters speech evaluation form has some good criteria to check. Just remember to also give yourself some grace and not be too critical. Keep up the good work. I’m sure you’ll continue to be busy.

#120 IHCTD9 on 07.15.21 at 1:10 pm

Looking at voting intentions from 2019, you can see pretty easily that Trudeau’s power base is minorities and Women – especially Women. Last election, L+C support among Men was pretty much even, but among Women support was double for the Libs. Double. Looking at politics right across the West it is the same, a growing divide among Women and Men Politically, and this is in turn driven by growing trends among Western Women themselves. Said trends are expected to continue and expand, so we can predict even more bias to the left in the future. Women also out vote Men too.

I can’t really see how this will change anytime soon either, short of a big recession with a pile of job losses. Everything that brought us to this point is expected to continue and increase.

Maybe Canada is heading towards being the first effective Matriarchy?

#121 Linda on 07.15.21 at 1:18 pm

#15 ‘Kona’ – “The housing crisis seems to be less about people not being able to buy a house and more about people not being able to buy the house that they want.”
Well said! Though to be fair, even dilapidated fixer uppers are going for way too many $. Garth has featured a few on the blog. The location may be stellar but the building is way past its best before date. I’m talking hazmat suit level of dilapidated here, though I’m sure some purchasers think a pepto pink tub qualifies:)

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.21 at 1:39 pm

@#117 SeeSee

My my.
Such anger.
Methinks you’re a card carrying member of the FFC (Faron Fan Club).

#123 enthalpy on 07.15.21 at 1:41 pm

I am hearing a lot of chatter over hybrid back to work models….but most aiming for early 2022. At least based on my own anecdotal research from friends and colleagues.

I am in no rush.

#124 Sail Away on 07.15.21 at 1:49 pm

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.21 at 11:12 am

We are cancelling our yearly trips to China and Europe again. Too much uncertainty.

Staycation again.

——-

That’s funny. Our Slovakian friends whose wedding we couldn’t attend last year have now been traveling, hiking and camping throughout the US west for the last couple of weeks. Too much hassle for us to join them or for them to come here.

#125 G on 07.15.21 at 2:18 pm

I hope the GO train parking can take all the cars that don’t want to try there luck on the ‘death’ roads as much. Driving them in good weather and off peak traffic hours is one thing but in high volume bad weather and fatigue …

#126 G on 07.15.21 at 3:30 pm

op-ed June 14 RT
France’s mandatory ‘health pass’ with government-issued QR codes for access to everyday life is the start of a dystopian nightmare
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/529188-france-mandatory-health-pass/

#127 Life Sucks on 07.15.21 at 3:51 pm

It is a Communist pass not health pass.

#128 Tudval on 07.15.21 at 11:06 pm

Yes, the market was cooler in June vs March. Happens every year and like the first snow in November, it always surprises. Still, not even close to the summer of 2015 (election year, another coincidence?).. one agent was telling me back then he never saw a market that slow in Toronto. And what followed 2015? 2016, then 2017 of course. Yes, pent-up demand happens.

#129 CouchieBoy on 07.18.21 at 1:21 pm

Hey folks … for those seemingly trapped in Toronto hell, ever consider Winnipeg? Lots of jobs in a growing economy, much lower housing costs, with very short commuter times … my whole world is within 2km from my lovely home in prestigious North River Heights. Little wonder why house prices are going up – especially in Winnipeg’s quality neighbourhoods.

So, coming from Toronto, you could likely pay cash for your new Winnipeg home, and buy a nice cottage/summer residence 150-200 km east of Winnipeg in the lovely Whiteshell, or in Northern ON’s fantastic Lake of the Woods Area. To paraphrase Mr. Rogers, “can you say “no-brainer”? I knew you could”! :)