Big reveal tomorrow morning in Ottawa.
Our central bank will review its key rate, make a sexy announcement and shed some light on what to expect in terms of your mortgage when it renews. First, I hear you cry, “Tell us how much money the CB has spent snorfling up Mr. Socks’ debt.”
Okay, this much…
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada
If you ever wondered what a Holy-Mother-of-God! chart looked like, well, there she be. You can see how much government debt – issued to pay for historic spending programs – now sits on the balance sheet of the bank. And it is still being accumulated – currently at the rate of $3 billion a week, which is $600 million each business day. (That’s $25 million an hour, 24/7.)
So on Wednesday morning the word will be that (a) the bond-buying is being scaled back for a third time, now to just $2 billion weekly, and (b) the bank’s benchmark interest rate will stay at just one-quarter of one per cent for a while longer.
The numbers are numbing. So big most people cannot grasp the significance. Recent polls show “the deficit” comes out slightly ahead of “Indigenous reconciliation” as a major election issue – and way down the list from others. (“The economy” is first.) But deficits are only deferred taxation. So when T2 takes an expected $19 billion shortfall and turns it into $354 billion in one year while firing his prudent, experienced Bay Street finance minister to bring in an academic and journalist to replace him, well, Dog help us.
In short, people have no idea what’s coming. After the election, of course.
Speaking of the unwashed, house-horny, hormonal, debt-addled masses the latest Nik Nanos poll is fun. When asked where real estate prices would be going over the next six months, here’s the response Nik received:
Increase – 57.56%
Stay the same – 28.5%
Decrease – 9.26%
Huh? Don’t know – 5%
Those polled were almost equally renters and owners, by the way. Meanwhile the swaps market is signaling investors are pricing in four Bank of Canada rate increases over the next 24 months. That would raise the basic rate a full 100 basis points, and given the low base upon which this would be heaped, it’s a big deal. Each quarter point now, economists have been saying, has the impact of much higher moves in the past.
That’s shock one. Shock two, of course, is the unsustainability of federal finances and the certainty of higher general taxes. Look at the chart above. How could it be otherwise?
Already the greatest impediment to middle class joy these days is unaffordability. In the US – where prices have also romped during the pandemic but not as much as here – the market is cooling quickly as potential buyers throw in the towel. Home sales have fallen four months running as newbie purchasers turn their backs on competition, low inventories and prices that nine out of ten cannot finance. These days less than a third of would-be first-time owners think it’s a good time to buy. That number has never been lower. Ever.
Why the immense disparity between attitudes north and south of the border? Are Americans wary of the future, while Canadians believe ‘the government’ will make everything ducky? Can we actually insulate ourselves from economic and fiscal reality, borrowing billions more every week while expecting endless services and no consequences?
Or will the CB governor get up tomorrow and say, “We’ll soon be pooched. So here’s the plan…”
In your dreams.
About the picture: “12 years ago, someone thought Bailey was too much to handle,” writes Dave, in Guelph. “So we adopted him. He’s been to more Provinces than many Canadians, survived Melanoma and lost a toe, survived a car accident and many surgeries. He was happiest by the water. Unfortunately at 13, another round of Cancer caught up to him. We had his spleen and some of the tumours removed 2 months ago to give him some additional time. He hung on just long enough for one last annual trip to Lake Huron. He could barely walk so I created a “Chariot” to carry him down to the beach for sunset & one last walk in the water. Great friends and family helped carry him down for sunset on Canada Day. He died on Sunday the 4th. He gave us so much and never asked for anything in return (except Bacon when he could smell it was around).”
160 comments ↓
Okay.
How many people cried more about the dog story than the deficit chart?
#1 Hairhead on 07.13.21 at 4:06 pm
Okay.
How many people cried more about the dog story than the deficit chart?
_________________________
Me.
Maybe if we are all lucky an asteroid the size of Texas will hit the planet soon and we won’t have to deal with any of this
#1 hairhead
Me
#1 Hairhead on 07.13.21 at 4:06 pm
How many people cried more about the dog story than the deficit chart?
———
It is not yet time to cry about the deficit, but don’t worry… it’s a-coming.
CPI in US has hit 0.9 % on monthly basis that translates into double digits > 10 % CPI on yearly basis.
That is CPI, imagine what the real inflation is there. And now imagine what the real inflation is in Canada.
The incompetents at BoC will announce no inflation whatsoever and will demand trust.
What a bunch of dumb clowns. A thief has more integrity.
In light of these developments, I suppose I am buying more VFV and getting out of Canada……….
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-13-2021-221624018.html
Sniff. Ditto.
Rip Bailey. Thanks for making a beautiful story. Tears and a smile for you.
#1 Hairhead on 07.13.21 at 4:06 pm
Okay.
How many people cried more about the dog story than the deficit chart?
——————————————————-
Me! Which is funny because I hate debt and I’m not that much of a dog person. But that chariot and sunset..
So they think the Economy and the Deficit, as massive as it is, are unrelated.
I give up.
Too bad you can’t roll back the clock to last year, not have given out any CERB et. al. cash and see how that would have worked out.
The nation has gotten dumber, drunk on giving itself perks that have now become a right.
You reap what you sow.
“These days less than a third of would-be first-time owners think it’s a good time to buy. That number has never been lower. Ever.”
If you were a contrarian, wouldn’t that make this a good time to buy? Buy when people don’t want to, sell when people don’t want to, no?
Interest rates won’t have any negative effect on Nanaimo. It’s totally different here. We are the new Kelowna with ocean, lakes, rivers, hikes, orcas, parks, mountains and much more. Unlike Kelowna, we don’t live in smoke, but we have a company that sells stuff you can smoke. Easy access to the mainland (5 ferry waits only). Gentle traffic around town. And so much more.
Other than 80k kitchen girl, who thinks Nanaimo SFD prices will double in the next 5 years?
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
— Alllmost over guys. Just a few more crippling Economic & Social lockdowns to batter people in Australia (some say it’s the test zone) into submision. With their miniscule case numbers. But why?
.Harsher lockdown the only ‘real option’ left to save Sydney from Covid-19 (news.com.au)
“But the NSW Premier has warned that allowing the virus to circulate is simply not an option until vaccination rates in Australia are much higher and a majority of the adult population is vaccinate”
— Locked in their apartment blocs:
Australian apartment blocks placed in hard lockdown
Updated / Tuesday, 13 Jul 2021 13:56
Two Australian apartment blocks have been placed under strict lockdown with residents barred from leaving, as authorities stepped up efforts to curb a fast-growing coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0713/1234716-covid-global/
——–
——– From the Killing us Softly dept. Why I use the term Economic and Social lockdowns. Comrades go easy on the Vodka, special occasions only.
.Drug use, alcohol blamed for excess deaths of Canadians under 65 in the last year
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/07/12/drug-use-alcohol-blamed-for-excess-deaths-of-canadians-under-65-in-the-last-year.html
“Drug use and alcohol, and not COVID-19, are largely to blame for an excess of deaths in Canadians younger than 65 from March last year to April 2021, new research suggests.
The figures are particularly bleak in Ontario and Alberta, where deaths last year from accidental poisonings — a term that includes unintentional overdoses from illegal and prescription drugs as well as alcohol and solvents — accounted for most of the country’s increase over previous years.”
— The toll in NS.
“Nearly 400 people died while waiting for surgeries in Nova Scotia in 2020: report”
https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/nearly-400-people-died-while-waiting-for-surgeries-in-novaa-scotia-in-2020-report-100609532/
—
— Don’t tell me our elites didn’t know this after decades of study. :(
.5,535 excess deaths in under 65s. Of that figure, 1,380 were Covid deaths – in that same age range.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210712/dq210712b-eng.htm
Deaths caused by accidental poisonings increase to a new high during the pandemic
People who are really aware of our massive debt are expressing serious concerns because everywhere you look our provincial and federal governments are just
spending money to get re elected. How can this go on
unchecked. As a couple we feel we will be fine because we have no debts whatsoever but eventually our governments will have to balance the books I HOPE.
Never thought I’d live to see a quote like this from a US president!
“I BELIEVE THE EXPERIMENT FAILED”
“Over time, we’ve lost the fundamental American idea that true capitalism depends on fair and open competition. Forty years ago, we chose the wrong path, in my view…..and pulled back on enforcing laws to promote competition. ”
“We’re now 40 years into the experiment of letting giant corporations accumulate more and more power. And where- — what have we gotten from it? Less growth, weakened investment, fewer small businesses.
I believe the experiment failed. We have to get back to an economy that grows from the bottom up and the middle out.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/09/remarks-by-president-biden-at-signing-of-an-executive-order-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/
It’s not a done deal that taxes need to rise. The debt can (and will) be monetized and the currency devalued, like a wealth tax on everything, especially your paycheck.
Given that about half of the people in Canada work for some level of Government, and have DB pensions from them, such a devaluation is a way to give a big pay cut and balance the books over time.
Also, the bond markets know that Canada sits on mountains of needed resources. Most of them are off limits due to the emotional reactions of urban leftists.
Those emotions can change when the economic pain sets in…. and it will.
The Deficit is criminal in it’s increased growth.
Unaccountable, unnecessary, electioneering at it’s blatant worst.
It needs to be outlawed.
Sad story about a very fortunate dog.
#3 Doug t on 07.13.21 at 4:16 pm
Maybe if we are all lucky an asteroid the size of Texas will hit the planet soon and we won’t have to deal with any of this
——–
Um… yup. The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs had a diameter of 10km and made a crater 180 km across.
Texas has an area of 696,000 square km. As a sphere, that relates to a diameter of 834km and a volume of 3E17 cubic meters. A rock density of 2,650 kg/cubic meter gives a mass of 8E20 kg, all traveling at an average asteroid speed of 18 km/s.
Let’s say 1 second of impact (which would drive it 18km into the earth), so a deceleration of 18,000 m/s-s. Applying F=ma yields an impact force of 1.45E25 kN, or 14,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 N.
To put it in layman’s terms, this is dang big.
When a world is vaporized, does it also vaporize debt?
we all love apple, ms, fb, qqq, spy etc…but is a there a tech sector bubble starting to froth?…yet we read from Buffet himself that he thinks tech stocks have so much potential..loves Apple etc…but then there is this today:
”The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a correction of up to 15% with tech-stock valuations at dot-com bubble levels, Morgan Stanley says”
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-correction-tech-bubble-lisa-shalett-2021-7
Aw Bailey, you were one lucky and beloved doggie! May the Rainbow Bridge be filled with lots of good romps. Run In Paradise, RIP.
Either they’re hoping hyperinflation will reduce the national debt, or they truly think taxing the rich will pay the debt off. Either way, there is a passel of hurt coming our way.
How is it gold isn’t a sensible play?
As of Aug 1 if you are planning a trip to France you will need a Green Pass to access trains, planes, automobiles, restaurants, hotels, museums, etc.
Looks like this, the digital version:
https://i.imgur.com/d0iGTL1.png
Same in Greece. Italy thinks it’s a good idea.
The EU is scared sh!tless about Delta.
Getting out of control in Spain, Portugal, The Netherlands, Denmark etc. with exponential growth.
Delta Exponential Growth UK doesn’t care and removing restrictions Jul 19. Boris is back to his Herd Immunity via Infection kick…because that worked out so well the last he tried (and got it).
———————
Get 2 dose vaxd Canada. Delta will be coming your way soon enough. It’s low and slow from what I can see but once it grabs hold, it goes exponential.
For now enjoy the Aug long weekend Canada, that’s what I’d do. No fear. Wait and see.
And yes, Garth still gets his 70% all vaxd by the Aug long weekend. My projections continue to be spot on, thus…
July 28:
81% single dose, 71% two dose vaxd.
Supply side fine. Above takes into account the 7-day avg vax rate has slowed.
#13 Rook on 07.13.21 at 4:29 pm
“These days less than a third of would-be first-time owners think it’s a good time to buy. That number has never been lower. Ever.”
If you were a contrarian, wouldn’t that make this a good time to buy? Buy when people don’t want to, sell when people don’t want to, no?
================
Using that logic, with regard to the Nik Nanos poll Garth referenced, then now would not be a good time to buy a house in Canada.
#17 Cuke:
Balance the books? Balance the books? I HOPE. That is as funny as the head puppet saying the budget will balance itself. There is NO HOPE the balance will ever be balanced. Ever. None, Zero, Zip. Nada.
Last New Year in Cuba, the usual celebration was much subdued at the family gathering I was at with people ALL thinking “We usually anticipate and celebrate with hope for the upcoming year. We KNOW what’s coming in 2021 and it ain’t good.”
They knew the reality…how many of you do?
Good Luck. You are going to need it maybe even more than they do at this time. They at least know how to survive and are barely holding on.
Could most of you?
And yes, people do get a wee bit upset when their bellies are empty….coming sooner than you think to a village near you
I generally agree with the conclusion that deficits will require higher future taxes and “we are pooched”, however, as I have posted before , DEFICIT MAY NOT MATTER for central policy setting.
After all , we have:
– modern economic MMT (More Money Today Theory),
– currency CAD which we can de-value to PESO level,
– high inflation, low interest rates that DEVALUE DEBT
Applying those 3 above properly, policy makers do not even have to raise taxes. Canadians will be taxed in a way that they might not even notice. Wages will be stagnant, costs of living will go up. Savers will be crushed, keeping funds in GIC’s just cost them 3-4% annualy in lost purchasing power. Just keep inflation high, interest rates low for as long as possible.
After all, price increases imposed by capitalist businesses are not government’s fault. No No.
Garth, I think we are all screwed. It does not matter if you own GIC’s, term deposits at 2% or 3% or have a rental real estate or a bunch of different investments balanced portfolio or not. It looks like Canada as a country and society is over. When big government reaches more than 15% of GDP or the size of the Canadian economy we are all screwed. The bigger the government gets it leads to socialism and then communism. Say good bye to any freedom, life you think you had.
An example Trudeau Liberals $500 extra OAS payment is worthless now when all the higher food, fuel, water, insurance costs and others taxes, fees etc. are outstripping any money one has. This is not like the 70’s, it is going to be much worse.
#15 Cheese on 07.13.21 at 4:30 pm
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
//////////////////::
That’s o.k buddy.
The guys in Ottawa live in a parallel universe…
M47BC
“Our central bank will review its key rate, make a sexy announcement…”
I think they will either keep rates unchanged or drop them lower. BOC has to pump RE.
THIS!
“But deficits are only deferred taxation.”
Every clown politician, every economics prof I’ve ever heard, needs to have their nose rubbed in this until they recite it like a mantra. And then, every jackass who wants lower taxes but not at the expense of the services they use needs the same remedial education.
DELETED
#111 Chris on 07.13.21 at 1:06 pm
#103 G “ Canada’s Ontario province has injected anti-racist activism into its Grade 9 math curriculum”
Stopped at “Math is subjective”
My god, this is a path back to the dark ages.
Just glad my kids are out of the school system.
How is this anti white racist propaganda getting approved, let alone trying to turn Math into a ‘social’ science?
———————————————–
“Math is the only Subject that Counts” – T-Shirt Wisdom
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two makes four. If that is granted, all else follows” – George Orwell
“2 + 2 = 5” – INGSOC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_%2B_2_%3D_5
“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities, Can Make You Commit Atrocities” – Voltaire
I hope people start to realize where all this constructive racial division and “newspeak” is going.
All science and math will serve the dogma of the ‘Woke”.
“Don’t fight the trend” I betcha this game can go on way longer than you think. Low rates for years and years. More and more Government debt. It would indeed be prudent and reasonable to address this now, but our leaders & voters do not seem to have any appetite for this. So it will go on much longer.
Of course, this means the eventual breakdown will be much harder. But as Homer Simpson said while downing a bottle of vodka and mayonnaise, the attitude today is “This is a problem for future Canada”
Interesting conclusions and perspective on the US political\cultural landscape; Trump supporters and the Establishment.
https://outsidevoices.substack.com/p/author-of-the-mega-viral-thread-on
When Bernie Sanders lost to Hillary, I thought well that is the Establishment ensuring the fix was in.
When Trump beat Hillary I thought hmm…wow that was a popular rejection of the US Establishment.
In 2020 I too noted how all the forces of the US Establishment lined up to oppose him, it was clear that “the Regime” were not going to allow the 2016 mistake to occur again, ….but it was close.
“This is where people whose political identities have for decades been largely defined by a naive belief in what they learned in civics class began to see the outline of a Regime that crossed not only partisan, but all institutional boundaries. They’d been taught that America didn’t have Regimes, but what else was this thing they’d seen step out from the shadows to unite against their interloper president?”
Once you come to the realization that you actually live under the control of a “Regime” you simply can’t unsee it, It is the “Red Pill”.
Overheard in Dr. Joe Mengele’s laboratory:
Rat #1: “Did you get your Covid-1984 jab yet?”
Rat #2: “No, I’m going to wait until after the human trials are over.”
Hi Dave and thanks for the pics and story about Bailey. I’d like to say more but got something in my eye so gotta go. Now where are those tissues. Sniff sniff …..
WHAT A STRANGE WORLD!
Yes, it surely is, a world stranger then fiction. A world where old cars appreciate 15% and houses appreciate 30% in a year. A world were the media cheers when consumer debt rises and freaks out when it falls. Today, Consumer spending reflects creditors willingness to expand into subprime debt. This willingness to take on additional risk, right after the huge increases in home and car prices is beyond rational thinking. On the other hand these normally depreciating assets will presumably keep rising to justify the increased risk. I believe we saw this behavior at least once before. So good luck on that. As I type, I suspect the banks are ratcheting down their lending criteria. This will shortly funnel the poor swimmers into a credit card high interest rate kill zone. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.
Small business dept – there is no science behind this economic attack.
Once again, “distancing” is the greatest economic weapon ever unleashed. Who ever got sick eating out? This is not about health it’s over killing business and pleasure.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-labour-shortage-1.6099624
Recruiting ‘a nightmare’ for restaurants as Ontario loosens indoor dining restrictions
Last week, the provincial government announced it would lift even more restrictions. As of Friday, restaurants can seat as many customers as they can fit as long as they are physically distanced.
“I don’t think the restaurant trade is ever going to be the same,” Chevrier said.
.Ontario movie theatres facing ‘unreasonable’ reopening restrictions: industry group (globalnews.ca)
““Cinemas in Canada have welcomed more than seven million guests during the pandemic and not a single case of COVID-19 has been traced back to the movies,” the association said.”
——-
— When I said the global New System kicked off in March 2020, that EVERYTHING must be brought into line…did you see it?
– Military: one wag in the comments section point this out: “In the Soviet Union’s Red Army, “culture officers” were known as commissars”
(Why I’m always saying, everything old is new again Comrades!)
.”‘Culture officers’, restorative justice to be part of military’s new plan to fight misconduct: acting commander”
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-militarys-new-plan-to-fight-misconduct-includes-culture-officers-training
– Education:
.”Ontario’s new Grade 9 curriculum preaches ‘subjective’ nature of mathematics
https://torontosun.com/life/ontarios-new-grade-9-curriculum-preaches-subjective-nature-of-mathematics
I’m wondering what the average income is for most Canadians? Real estate prices being nonsensible and government debt at nose bleed levels.
Where is this leading? I have a bad feeling pondering this…
Oh Gawd,
I never comment on the dog photos, because they are all so darned adorable, but this one really choked me up. Like real tears. So sad, yet he was so happy, right up to the end, despite all his suffering.
What a trooper! And Dave, what an amazing dog daddy you are!
So many seem to believe that rainbows complete with unicorns will be theirs for the asking from our government. Never, they say, will the government 1) raise rates; 2) increase taxes; 3) stop showering folks with money. UBI is the goal, don’t you know? No need to work, just wait for the ‘free’ money to arrive!
Locally, the news is crowing about the increase in assessed property values. Our municipality is working hard to prepare the 2022 property tax assessments. Folks generally get a gander shortly after January 1st, with the caveat that the amounts shown are subject to change, depending on how much the province decides to add to the final total owing. My tea leaves are warning of a robust increase in our property tax bill. By the time we get our first look elections will be in the rear view mirror & those promises of ponies for all may well be delivered in the form of fiscal nightmares.
#12 Dolce Vita on 07.13.21 at 4:29 pm
So they think the Economy and the Deficit, as massive as it is, are unrelated.
I give up.
Too bad you can’t roll back the clock to last year, not have given out any CERB et. al. cash and see how that would have worked out.
The nation has gotten dumber, drunk on giving itself perks that have now become a right.
You reap what you sow.
—————-
Dolce,
You’re lucky.
You live in the best soccer Nation in Europe.
And also the one with the best economy in Europe.
So lucky.
Go, buy a lottery ticket.
You never talk about TIPS, Garth.
Big inflation and higher taxes. It is the only way out. People are not gonna change how they vote cuz they want the free stuff the Libs will provide. Tax more and more from business, industry, and high income earners and give to poor little us. Anything else would be unfair, unwoke, racist, and bigoted.Not to mention selfish and immature.
#34 Dogman01 on 07.13.21 at 5:13 pm
#111 Chris on 07.13.21 at 1:06 pm
#103 G “ Canada’s Ontario province has injected anti-racist activism into its Grade 9 math curriculum”
Stopped at “Math is subjective”
My god, this is a path back to the dark ages.
Just glad my kids are out of the school system.
How is this anti white racist propaganda getting approved, let alone trying to turn Math into a ‘social’ science?
———————————————–
“Math is the only Subject that Counts” – T-Shirt Wisdom
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two makes four. If that is granted, all else follows” – George Orwell
—————–
I would say Philosophy is the only Subject that counts.
2+2=4 is an Axium, not anything based in reality.
It just makes math work.
Just like in reality, there is no straight line.
Pretty elementary, is it not.
#15 Cheese on 07.13.21 at 4:30 pm
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
———
I’d suggest you talk to Branson, Bezos, and/or Musk. They probably need cleaning staff for their space platforms and ships.
Some may find this interesting, 20min July 13, 2021 YT.
MOST IMPORTANT Lessons we were NOT TAUGHT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyx3xr9a9iM
I haven’t read the blog post yet. After looking at pics of Bailey, I came straight to the comments. Once tears dry up, I will read Garth’s thoughts for today. Thanks to the owners for sharing their heart-warming story.
Bless you for giving Bailey such a caring and loving home, and his last trip to the water.
Seems most of you old curmudgeons are concerned about the debt/deficit needlessly.
Possibly because you studied economics in the 70’s.
Real interest rates are negative and will remain
negative for a very long time.
As for fuelling the housing bubble, that should not be a concern.
The major cost components of a house are: the price, and the cost of financing.
The cost of financing will remain low for a long time , so the price will increase until the affordability dam is breached, and then the crash will follow.
No need for the government to do anything that could possibly connect it to the bursting of the bubble.
#48 Stone on 07.13.21 at 5:47 pm
#15 Cheese on 07.13.21 at 4:30 pm
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
———
I’d suggest you talk to Branson, Bezos, and/or Musk. They probably need cleaning staff for their space platforms and ships.
—————–
My suggestion is, if he has 250k lying around, he can book a flight with one of those “space flights” to the edge of space and see what’s on the other side.
And also experience 10 seconds of weightlessness.
How many ks is that per second?
And then he’ll realize, this planet is all we’ve got.
So, let’s stop dreaming and let’s take care of it.
For our kids sake.
ENOUGH!
Garth, if you’re talking about money.
There’s never enough.
#117 Sail Away on 07.13.21 at 1:28 pm
Wrk.dover would just build his own range.
_________________________________
Yeah/no. Although my wife probably bakes more food than any other blog dogs wife, we have no range in the galley style kitchen.
Combo convection/microwave hovering a foot above the counter, opposite a smooth white ceramic cooktop in the white Corian counter under a $65. vented to outdoor hood.
The black cooktop was an immediate dust collector and was banished to the guest house.
The money is in the cabinetry materials, self labour. Dovetailed carcasses and drawers etc. But of course!
#1 Hairhead on 07.13.21 at 4:06 pm
How many people cried more about the dog story than the deficit chart?
——————————-
What? I’m not crying. There’s something in my eye. It stings.
Aw, Bailey. Good boy, Bailey. xo
My People, My Country, are holding hands and looking forward to the next ten years of CERB benefits.
Debt means nothing, so don’t worry about it. Canada is doing the right thing.
#34 Dogman01
“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities, Can Make You Commit Atrocities” – Voltaire
I think he was referring to you and TurnerNation, if you really believe that the new curriculum will be teaching 2 + 2 = 5. Is it so wrong that they are trying to make math more engaging for students by teaching them its practical uses in a way they can relate to?
Good grief, I am plenty unwoke, but you give us all a bad name.
#27 Billy Buoy on 07.13.21 at 5:01 pm
And yes, people do get a wee bit upset when their bellies are empty….coming sooner than you think to a village near you
————
As Alfred Henry Lewis said, “We are only nine meals away from anarchy”.
Apparently property taxes WILL be going UPPA UPPA UPPA:
https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/covid-revenue-collapse-canadian-municipalities-050328210.html
“Nichola Saminather
Tue., July 13, 2021, 1:03 a.m.·5 min read
FILE PHOTO: A row of houses under construction is seen at a subdivision near the town of Kleinburg
FILE PHOTO: Newly built houses are seen at a subdivision near the town of Kleinburg
FILE PHOTO: Youths play pond hockey on Pigeon Lake near the town of Bobcaygeon
1 / 3
After COVID revenue collapse, Canadian municipalities face insurance premium spike
FILE PHOTO: A row of houses under construction is seen at a subdivision near the town of Kleinburg
By Nichola Saminather
TORONTO (Reuters) -Canadian municipalities reeling from a pandemic-driven hit to revenues are facing an added blow from surging liability insurance costs, forcing them to raise property taxes or even cut services for residents.
The increase in premiums, about 20% to 30% in many cases, has been driven by a shrinking pool of insurers, more claims in an increasingly litigious climate and uncertainty around payout amounts…”
One Word……
BITCOIN!
Quintilian #52
Back in the 70s houses were something few cared about. A dime a dozen. More for raising a family than a status symbol. Owning a Firebird with a big block, well that was cool.
That was the status quo of an earlier era.
Buying a dilapidated property today for over a mil in Toronto questions logic. While FOMO plays into the equation and quickly justified by those who see upside in a rotten foundations begs a bigger question…
NSNG, in Canada we have real return bonds which I never bought because I don’t trust the inflation numbers they put out and pay for these real return bonds.
How much is $3 billion a week in dump truck loads?
Can fully empathize with y’all as your Bailey experience mirrors ours to a “T”. Romans 10:32 (Paul’s a fortiori)
was what made it possible for us to gut it out.
Bless you
When will the credit rating and bond rating agencies start ringing the alarm bells over Canada’s out-of-control debt?
How about provincial debt? Household debt? How much longer can this fraud continue?
shock one: interest rates rise
shock two: taxes rise
so where’s Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives?
from what I can see, their strategy is to promise better days ahead – better government, better everything
but from what you’re saying everything is not going to be better – higher interest rates will lead to lower housing prices which I think is going to lead to a housing collapse. Higher taxes will lead to a lower standard of living.
the fundamental question is “are things getting better or are they getting worse?” We need a political party who will lead the country through difficult times – to stop the expansion of debt, to preserve a government which supports common services and the vision of equity. The present government says that equity and social justice are its first priority but these vaunted goals are only talking points. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.
In a past post you reminded us that our Central Bank and the government act independently ; ie: do not collude.
So with an impending election, why then:
“Or will the CB governor get up tomorrow and say, “We’ll soon be pooched. So here’s the plan…”
“In your dreams.” GT
That, to me suggests to me a collaboration between the two.
Clarification? Always trying to understand these nebulous connections.
Isn’t it about time Canadian citizens were told the truth about the real level of inflation and the true rate of GDP growth after adjustment for real inflation.
In theory the Bank of Canada is responsible for adjusting interest rates as real inflation begins to gain steam. It seems inevitable that economic growth will result in an increase in wages and the price of most goods and services. Inflation will increase the costs incurred by all levels of government and increased costs will require an increased in taxation. See a pattern here?
Canadian citizens are not being told how much increasing total government debt by more than $750 billion over the past 18 months will add to the annual debt servicing costs of our governments. The cost of everything around us is increasing while the Bank of Canada is busy rehearsing old fiddle tunes.
Once inflation gains momentum it will become increasingly difficult to rein in. When the price if gas hits $1.50 a litre the idea of working from home may become a necessity for many.
Time for a reality check Tiff your monetary policies are becoming obsolete with every price increase escaping from the barn.
I think the debt is truly terrifying. In my minds eye I see the bejeebas being taxed out of non renewables. Perhaps even new environmental levees on waste like plastic and water. A kind of politically correct grab if you will.
I wonder too about a new annual tax on combustion engines. It could get that desperate.
#55 Wrk.dover on 07.13.21 at 6:17 pm
#117 Sail Away on 07.13.21 at 1:28 pm
Wrk.dover would just build his own range.
———
The money is in the cabinetry materials, self labour. Dovetailed carcasses and drawers etc. But of course!
———
Non-dovetailed drawers are just plain uncivilized, but dovetailed carcases are a step toward the divine.
The majority of Canadians do truly believe that the government will save them. I am very despondent when it comes to Canada’s future. Remember playing Monopoly and in order to stay viable in the game you had to sell off your properties to keep the bankers at bay. Canada will be swallowed up by the USA.
Politician: I want to get re-elected. I love to schmooze and have old people ask long-winded questions at town halls that I host.
Reasonable person: You promised too much spending to the electorate without any plan to pay for it or the mountain of accumulated debt. Do you think the voters will believe you?
Politician: Yes, it works every time! Some “tax the rich” speech always helps… AND… I never need to follow through with painful remedies to my over-spending. Just add to the debt. Then it’s someone else’s problem years after I retire. Wash, rinse, repeat !
Our children are doomed.
#58 IHCTD9 on 07.13.21 at 6:40 pm
#27 Billy Buoy on 07.13.21 at 5:01 pm
And yes, people do get a wee bit upset when their bellies are empty….coming sooner than you think to a village near you
————
As Alfred Henry Lewis said, “We are only nine meals away from anarchy”.
—————-
I’m about 80% vegetarian.
I’ve got my veggie and fruit garden.
So make it 20 meals for me.
The Sheeple have spoke and they do not care of over spending as long as socks is their leader….. Liberals are locked to lead for another 4 years….. Skytrain to the valley, he is our saviour….. wtf
Not even a Philpott and Raybould Wilson memoir will save us from more crazy…. sad……
If there is one thing we can count on going forward, it’s that none of us posting on this blog today will be alive when Trudeau’s financial annihilation of Canada is finally reconciled. My bet is long slow protracted inflation for a generation, or some kind of rate suppression like requiring commercial banks to chip in on the bond buying party. Maybe both.
Either way, it’s only going to get more and more expensive to live here. Only those who own hard and liquid assets right now will have a good standard of living. Trudeau has put the good ship “Prosperity” out to sea for those without. Without rich parents, you’re euchred. “It’s a rich Man’s world” now, thank to the Libs.
It is just way too much debt, the taxes are already too high to pile on much more, and the cost of the Canadian dream has never been higher. RE going nuts, manufacturing exiting, resource sectors handcuffed, foreign investment turning tail. There is no fixing it, we’re hitched up, on the roll, and going for a wild ride on the Trudeau crazy train. You can ask Ozzie where the crazy train is headed…
So kids, when you find yourselves broke at the end of every month, close your eyes, see Trudeau staring down as you lay prostrate on the cement – and listen as he speaks, “Look At Me… I’m The One Who Did This To You… Remember Me…”
Can you show a chart with the 1990s and 2009 financial crisis adjusted for cost of borrowing? Without this context the chart makes 2020 look like a very bad spike. But context matters. 1990s was bad too for debt especially with 18% interest rates.
The CMHC must be abolished before it craters Canada’s economy.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation was meant to help Canadians meet their housing needs. Instead, it’s created a Caligula’s palace of moral hazard.
Canadians have a housing debt addiction and we’ve got one hell of a dealer: our own federal government. The country’s total housing debt now tops $2 trillion, having recorded its fastest-ever monthly increase in April at a pace of $18 billion.
Our tolerance for risk seems limitless, and who can blame us? There’s a crown corporation whispering sweet nothings in our ear, promising us it’ll all be OK and pushing an endless stream of sweet, sweet credit. Risky credit that’s underwritten by taxpayers, an increasing share of whom can’t afford their own homes, but are expected to act as backstops for banks and those with the means to build equity.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/sabrina-maddeaux-the-cmhc-must-be-abolished-before-it-craters-canadas-economy
Trudeau and his Liberal Party strategists are probably working closely with Google and Facebook’s Data Mining, AI and Predictive Analytics departments to determine when Canadians’ happiness and optimism will peak later this summer so they can time the election date accordingly.
Yes.
My Plunge-O-Meter fantasy charts are up. An attempt to see where SF detached price supports might occur: http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html
In June 2021 3/6 city SFD prices peaked, ie: Vancouver, Edmonton and Montreal.
In May 2021 3/6 did, ie: Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto.
In April 2021 4/6 did, ie: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.
In March 2021 all 6 city SFD prices peaked.
Anecdotally, I noticed a lot of realtors in Victoria are adding +/- $500,000 to the July 2020 BC Assessed Value as an asking price.
#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.13.21 at 7:07 pm
#58 IHCTD9 on 07.13.21 at 6:40 pm
#27 Billy Buoy on 07.13.21 at 5:01 pm
And yes, people do get a wee bit upset when their bellies are empty….coming sooner than you think to a village near you
————
As Alfred Henry Lewis said, “We are only nine meals away from anarchy”.
—————-
I’m about 80% vegetarian.
I’ve got my veggie and fruit garden.
So make it 20 meals for me.
———
I think after about 5-6 missed meals, your neighbours will have polished it all off for you. That’s the ‘ol anarchy starting up. If you borrow Sail Away’s belt-fed .50 Cal – you might get a few more meals out of it – but after that, they’ll have .50’s too.
@#73 Ponzies Pumpkin
“I’m about 80% vegetarian.”
++++
The brain eating zombies in the apocalypse wont care if that huge gourd of yours is healthy or not…….
https://yarn.co/yarn-clip/a146586d-a71c-44c1-89f2-c733ad1ccdc0
That’s the thing Garth; one cannot teach who is not willing to learn or is to effing “S” to learn. Maybe one day you will have a chance and have a reasonable discussion that is “if your flag ever returns”, probably burnt by now with the perpetrators who decided amongst 38 million Canadians that there cause was more important then people putting food on there tables to feed the kids?
This country has gone nuts, glad I live in my own little bubble and will defend it till the day I move on to the cosmos!
Another term of socks will be the end of the future generation.
Good work Garth, you have a ton of supporters!
Kudos to Baileys owners!
Normally I can agree with the premise that “central banks don’t print money” or at least not too much money, only enough to keep inflation at the stated goal of CPI = 2% (experienced inflation perhaps double that but the target is CPI). This can be seen in most of the “Liquidity Shot” chart, where the BOC is buying Canadian government debt but at a modest, predictable rate.
However if the moon shot that started in early 2020 isn’t printing money, then I don’t know exactly what printing money would look like. The government of Canada is printing bonds and then selling them to the Bank of Canada, a wholly owned organization. This is exactly how third world countries that have experienced hyper-inflation have done it.
Will they stop the presses in time to prevent hyper-inflation? Probably. This can be accomplished two ways, either by the government paying down the new debt (won’t ever happen) or the BOC finding other individuals / organizations to buy the bonds from them which will also pull actual cash out of circulation.
If neither of these things happen then the economy must adjust all prices to the new money, which is known as monetary inflation.
So ya, if you are wondering why everything seems to cost so dang much, now you know. And it won’t get better. It isn’t just chip shortages and covid, it’s the fact that you can’t just inject excess liquidity into the market ahead of the growth in GDP (real GDP as in goods and services) without causing inflation.
All that CERB money the government handed out resulted in a large increase in consumer purchasing potential, but it did nothing to increase the amount of goods and services available to spend the money on. Since prices always adjust such that the theoretical equation MV = PQ is balanced, where,
M = amount of money
V = money velocity (how fast it is changing hands)
P = general price level
Q = total real output
Solving for P gives P = MV/Q.
Q if anything went down with the lockdowns, which alone should drive up P. M is going way up, which will drive up P. V also went down, but that is likely not going to last once people can go out and spend their money.
So, yes, the price increases and shortages we have seen already in the RV industry are coming to every price near you. Not that many people buy RV’s, so a lot of people are sitting on cash. But once the goods and services are available that they want to spend money on, they will, driving up V. At that point only a large increase in Q (economic production) can save us from certain inflation.
So if you have cash, and there is something you want, go get it. It isn’t going to be cheaper later.
Heck last time I went to a pub a few weeks ago a burger and fries was $17. That’s up from $12 in the not so distant past. Now wait until the pub is full again.
#63 Alberta Ed on 07.13.21 at 6:49 pm
How much is $3 billion a week in dump truck loads?
——-
Do I have to do everything around here?
$1B in $100s has a mass of around 10,000 kg, and could fit in a standard dump truck. So we know they’re delivering three dump trucks of $100 dollar bills somewhere every week.
Anybody up for an Oceans 11 heist?
islander, a socialist like Biden which is Obama’s right hand man for 8 years cares about more competitive business environment. What a joke.
They do everything from high taxes, massive regulation and government overreach is going to help foster competition in the US. They diminish and reduce progress in the somewhat capitalist system the US still has. Progressives are not interested in making progress for the economy and society, they are all socialists, marxists, communists. Modern day democrat party are really not liberals anymore.
#34 Dogman01 on 07.13.21 at 5:13 pm
#111 Chris on 07.13.21 at 1:06 pm
#103 G “ Canada’s Ontario province has injected anti-racist activism into its Grade 9 math curriculum”
Stopped at “Math is subjective”
My god, this is a path back to the dark ages.
Just glad my kids are out of the school system.
How is this anti white racist propaganda getting approved, let alone trying to turn Math into a ‘social’ science?
———————————————–
“Math is the only Subject that Counts” – T-Shirt Wisdom
——————————–
Maths are hard. It is an entirely made up field found only in select human minds. Yet it always works without fail.
I say “select human minds”, because if we have a generation of children (and adults) who can’t tell whether 2+2 = 4 or 5, who is going to solve quadratic equations or integrations?
I think we can see in both public finance and Trudeau’s energy policies that we have reached a point where math really doesn’t matter to most people.
The Bank of Canada has really made a big mess of Canada’s debt along with the Trudeau Liberal government. I truly believe the debt and deficits are much bigger than they are really telling us.
Accounting rules allows this and the Bank of Canada looks more and more not independent of the Canadian government.
@#85 Sail Away
“$1B in $100s has a mass of around 10,000 kg, and could fit in a standard dump truck. So we know they’re delivering three dump trucks of $100 dollar bills somewhere every week.”
+++
No no.
The budget policies of the Liberals are insane so lets calculate this fiscal madness in Loonies.
Most people can relate to Loonies.
Sara?
Faron?
Are you listening?
How many Dump Trucks to haul 3,000,000,000 Loonies?
#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.13.21 at 5:44 pm
I would say Philosophy is the only Subject that counts.
2+2=4 is an Axium, not anything based in reality.
It just makes math work.
Just like in reality, there is no straight line.
Pretty elementary, is it not.
——————————–
So if I have 2 marbles, and a friend gives me 2 more marbles, I might have 5?
An axiom can be based on observation. All the good ones are.
What makes math special is that the axioms involved have lead to great generalizations and extrapolations, and that all seemed to work too. But if you can’t in your mind substitute x or y for a placeholder for a number, much of it isn’t going to work for you.
Yes, you can guess approximately what 1039/3 is, but there is still only one correct answer. The guesses are just “close”.
That beautiful Dog, those pictures, and the sunset are all you ever need to know about life. The rest is just noise.
Governments running record deficits with zero rates and fast rising inflation. Governments win huge.
Banks making record profits due to low rates, monetization and securitization of debt. Banks win huge.
Debtors borrow huge amounts that they can’t normally afford with fast rising house prices, zero rates and high inflation. Debtors win huge.
Investors ride the assets inflation up and up. That Inflation of assets aka ‘growth’ is far outplacing bonds and zero interest rates. Investors win huge.
As GDP barely grows in real terms, in fact if real inflation is factored, it would turn out to be negative, the big, big questions is who is losing in order to pay for all those wins? And who will continue to lose on grand scale, in order to keep the giant Ponzi going?
Retirees and savers from labours/salaries/small businesses are long done.
Workers wages are stagnating for a very long time and if we factor real inflation, it will turn out that they are actually declining. There is a wage ceiling and no wage pressure.
Future labour is already mortgaged up to the max.
The public debt is lied about.
The inflation is lied about.
How long before we hit an inflationary depression?
Aren’t we already in one?
I can sense the importance of misrepresenting real inflation in order to ‘keep the game going’ but it is reaching unheard of degree of denial about real inflation to a degree where I am starting to smell fear and desperation.
You can only lie that much and demand trust.
The latest numbers even about official CPI are worrisome and the fact that we are told not to worry is worrying me more. The real inflation is high and is accelerating.
Everybody is confident that inflation will be ‘transitory’ while deficits keep running higher and higher and asset prices skyrocket. Asset inflation is huge.
How exactly in an environment of ever growing debt – public and private, are they going to somehow shrink the money supply?
The velocity of money is about to pick up and then the real fun will begin, not that the lies about inflation will stop. But having real inflation in double digits for a very long time while having zero rates is not sustainable.
As for the glitzy standard of living in the big cities: We shall see about that.
Comment #1. Bailey ❤️
#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.13.21 at 6:14 pm
ENOUGH!
Garth, if you’re talking about money.
There’s never enough.
————————————
There are probably never enough goods and services, because people have an unlimited propensity to consume.
And I suppose there can never be too much or too little money. But price will adjust until all the money equals the amount of goods and services.
The amount of money doesn’t matter. It is just accounting. But it will be reflected in price.
However the introduction of widespread debt use means that a contraction in the money supply can make debt unrepayable and kick off a deflationary depression. This is why central bankers prefer controlled inflation to any level of deflation. Sort of like a nuclear bomb, the debt bomb must not be detonated.
But they also know what happens if sustained high inflation is allowed unchecked. That is why I think “transitory” high inflation will be left to run its course and absorb the new money, and then we’ll be back to managed inflation. But the new prices will stick.
Some off the napkin calculations.
The Royal canadian Mint says 1 Loonie weighs 6.27 grams
$1000 Loonies weigh 6.27 kilos
1 Billion Loonies weigh 6,270,000 kilos
Or
13,822,983 lbs
3 billion Loonies weigh
41,468,949 lbs
Thats
20,734.5 tons
The average Dump Truck hauls about 14 tons
So
$3 billion a week would involve 1,481 dump Trucks to haul it all away.
The average Dump truck is 16-18 feet long so we will say 17 ft.
1,481 Dump Trucks at 17 ft long would be 25,177 ft long.
Or
4.76 MILES of dump trucks filled to capacity with loonies leaving the Canadian Mint ….every week.
Stick THAT in your pipe and smoke it.
Damn!
Missed a decimal.
0.476 miles of dump trucks loaded to the gunnels with loonies.
Never was great at math.
Thats why I have a financial advisor.
:)
Get with the program Garth, taxes won’t be raised. Why raise taxes when the central bank can just inflate away and/or outright monetize the debt. This used to be seen as Banana Republic behaviour, but now we’re witnessing it with our very own eyes. They’ll just keep calling the inflation transitory or lying about its extent.
The central banks have concluded that the best way to help the working and middle classes is to rapidly increase their cost of living and make sure their real wages decline. Far better they suffer than the wealthy and large corporations, after all.
I read that a rather prominent central banker the other day stated that the low interest rate policy had made housing more affordable. That’s how out of touch these people are. I mean, sure, for existing mortgage holders with variable mortgages or those up for renewal have benefited from lower rates. But what about new home buyers or prospective buyers? The impact of lower rates has been more than offset by skyrocketing asset values.
We’ve had 12 years of negative real rates in much of the western world. The Everything Bubble is the predictable result. If they raise rates, it blows bigly. Do you honestly think they’ll raise rates, even if inflation stays at 5% (latest U.S. print being over 5%)? What more do they have to do to convince you that they care far more about asset values (the prime concern of the wealthy) than they do inflation in goods and services (the prime concern of the working and middle classes)?
As oil continues to rise thanks to grampa gaffe, Alberta’s future looks brighter and will likely save Kenney’s ass next election but many will still vote WIP.
Our friends on the left coast can truck in all the fuel they can from the states, don’t really care. If they cared to look at an oil pipeline map, there’s plenty of pipe shared between countries.
Won’t be a boom but it will get a lot more comfortable around here.
Ladies and Gents.
Our Climatologist Faron is now a celebrity on tonights 6pm BC Global TV 6pm News.
One question.
Bad hair day?
I watched a crane operator come down from 200 feet once. First was the sound of freight trains coupling.Starts of real slow, then keeps picking up speed. Fussing with the counter weights on a friday afternoon. In Kelowna sounds like something similar on a monday morning. When your a working man in the killing zone be especially wary monday mornings & friday afternoons. Thats the time when one’s mind wanders, concentration is lost & the bodies pile up.
“In short, people have no idea what’s coming. After the election, of course.” — Garth
Expect all the things that Justin Trudeau talked about years ago in his first federal election when he was campaigning against Stephen Harper. Expect all the issues that were written up in the newspapers back then. Voting can have serious consequences. Expect to get all the things that Liberal voters voted for. Below are just a few examples of many:
Let the budget deficit take care of itself.
Stephen Harper looked like a boring economist who cared about the economy. Justin Trudeau looked like he did not know anything about money except how to blow it with reckless abandon. So Justin Trudeau appeared to be a refreshing change from what was made out to be the boring old miser.
Now, Justin Trudeau has already spent a few hundred billion bucks more than the country had. I would not want to compare Justin Trudeau’s spending style to that of a drunken sailor because sailors earn their own money and help the economies of the ports around the world where they stop, whereas Justin Trudeau wastes other people’s money and is wrecking the economy of Canada.
Some people who voted for this might now try to play the old revisionist history trick and claim that they did not vote for this, even though they did vote for this.
Full support for the LGBTQ agenda.
Stephen Harper appeared to be a boring, straight, family man. Justin Trudeau pranced around at an LGBTQ pride parade and criticized Stephen Harper for never having gone to an LGBTQ pride parade. Stephen Harper was made out to be old fashioned, closed-minded, and bigoted, while Justin Trudeau was marketed as being more open-minded, progressive, and fun.
So, now there will be men in women’s formerly private spaces. In the past, women could chase men out of their private spaces, or call the police on them. Everyone knew that what such men were doing was wrong. Even the men who did it knew it was wrong and were ashamed of themselves. Now, the women are in the wrong and might have committed some sort of crime against these men. The men might even file charges against the women for not letting them into their private spaces. And if the women don’t call these men “women” when asked to, the real women could be in real trouble.
Some people who voted for this might now try to play the old revisionist history trick and claim that they did not vote for this, even though they did vote for this.
Carbon-tax good things like gas, oil, and coal as if they were bad.
Stephen Harper would have known all about the importance of fossil fuels to the economy. Probably all Justin Trudeau would have known about fossil fuels is some lump of coal that he got in his colourful stocking one cold December day for being so naughty, leading to a lifetime of hard feelings toward it and causing his ingrained habit of associating “coal” with being “bad.”
A country that has been blessed like Canada with plenty of gas, oil, and coal should be busy drilling and digging and prospering. Such things should not be demonized and shut down, or people could end up literally “freezing in the dark” while they wait for the sun to come out from behind a cloud and melt the snow off their solar panels.
Some people who voted for this might one day try to play the old revisionist history trick and claim that they did not vote for this, even though they did vote for this.
Meanwhile, as the economy reopens owners of businesses like restaurants are having trouble hiring the people they need. I think it’s about time the benevolent government brought an end to this pogey called the CERB. I understand it’s been scaled back for this month. It should be scaled back even more or even eliminated next month.
Now that dump truck/s is/are mentioned, somewhere on 400 northbound few yrs back…
https://imgur.com/a/QnEdz3f
#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.13.21 at 8:07 pm
@#85 Sail Away
“$1B in $100s has a mass of around 10,000 kg, and could fit in a standard dump truck. So we know they’re delivering three dump trucks of $100 dollar bills somewhere every week.”
———————————–
No, no, no. Dollars are mostly electronic now. They are delivering the equivalent of three dump trucks of $100 bills (tightly packed mind you) via the internet every week. It’s all just digits they don’t actually print it or they’d have to reintroduce the $1,000 bill. Or maybe a $10,000 bill. Or maybe a $100,000 bill.
When you’ve been told Canadian housing can never fail for decades the herd can not see otherwise, like a deer in headlights, until it’s too late…time will tell of course
I’m reading everyone has no faith in our governing institutions when it comes to debt and the economy. Justified.
It will be the institutions that invest in this country that will decide our fate. The central bank already owns over 40% of the federal debt with dollars created out of thin air. Count them out as buyers soon.
Debt ratings will eventually collapse and it will cost more to service the debts of both provinces and federal governments. Started in BC already.
Lending, or the purchase of bonds will come with conditions like higher interest to reflect risk of nonpayment. Think Iron Bank out of Game of Thrones.
The central bank and most levels of government will be powerless to stop it, unless spending gets under control.
By the way, $1.53 a liter for gas in Kamloops this morning for the people talking inflation.
#101 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer
_________________________________________
Nice one!
Upenuff
Witnesses: George Floyd mural at Summit and Lagrange destroyed by lightning strike
https://www.13abc.com/2021/07/13/george-floyd-mural-summit-lagrange-collapses/
Struck poor George right in the face….
uhhhhhh….
Some people say TPTB are trying to crash the financial system on purpose, there being no way to fix it without destroying our housing-centred economy and dragging our society with it…no other way to explain that debt chart, plus the 101$billion dollar budget.
1. What happens when you essentially borrow money from yourself?
2. What happens when you don’t pay that money back?
3. Maybe they are try8ng to create inflation. But what if people use that money to save? Or pay off their credit cards/mortgages? Will the government have to pump more money into the economy?
#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.13.21 at 8:37 pm
Re: dump trucks filled with loonies
———-
$3B in loonies equals 18,810,000 kg, or 18,810 metric tonnes.
3 axle dump trucks can carry 36,000 kg. 523 trucks are needed.
Each truck is 8m long. Assuming they are spaced 1 truck distance apart, the weekly convoy is 8.37 km long.
Every week.
Bonus: each truck carries $5.74M.
Let’s play a game. If the Gov’t was super-prudent during the past year during COVID what should they have forked out to cover all those individuals and businesses who were suffering during lockdown. Garth says 350B for te annual deficit is way too high? Should it have been 100B, 200B, 250B, or should the GOV’t just thrown in the towel and toss out 50B and let people rely on their savings and even more businesses to simply fold?
However, that being said, I would really like T2 and his gang now to STOP coughing up extra $$$ to a multitude of extra stuff we can’t afford, and to NOT make indigenous issues the calling card of the next election. Indeed these are important things to deal with, but the time frame for getting a handle on superfluous spending is more immediate.
#66 My Body My Choice on 07.13.21 at 6:49 pm
When will the credit rating and bond rating agencies start ringing the alarm bells over Canada’s out-of-control debt?
How about provincial debt? Household debt? How much longer can this fraud continue?
##################################
Both S&P as well as Fitch have already made their moves, at least with respect to BC. Here is an article from a week ago…..
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/british-columbias-aaa-rating-is-stripped-by-sp-on-rising-debt
LM
Sold townhouse looking for house. Second house inspected had roof replaced because of hail last august north of calgary. was thinking of moving west but now reconsidreing
#19 AM in MN on 07.13.21 at 4:44 pm
Given that about half of the people in Canada work for some level of Government
————–
I call BS on this number. Provide proof-link.
#21 Sail Away on 07.13.21 at 4:49 pm
Let’s say 1 second of impact (which would drive it 18km into the earth)
=============================
If you decelerate from 18km/s to 0 over 1s period you only travel 9km.
What a missed opportunity. CB could have just given every Canadian $750,000/hr that surely would have solved all the problems…
The next prime minister and finance minister should be two folks that can take control of this out-of-control situation.
I vote for Smith & Wesson.
wow. there’s no inflation. no need to keep rates at 0.25%
PPI in at 20% yoy. highest level since 1974.
but don’t worry people. central banks will eventually raise rates to 2% in 5 years
I would like to know how any party in power at this time would have handled this situation differently. I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs. Come on….light up the board
#115 Slava on 07.14.21 at 8:46 am
#21 Sail Away on 07.13.21 at 4:49 pm
Let’s say 1 second of impact (which would drive it 18km into the earth)
———
If you decelerate from 18km/s to 0 over 1s period you only travel 9km.
———
Yep, agreed. Looking for a job?
@#119
Unbalanced bank account.
“I would like to know how any party in power at this time would have handled this situation differently. I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs. Come on….light up the board”
++++
Well.
1st
I wouldnt have IMMEDIATELY handed out billions in CERB.
I would have let people stew for about a month without cash to let them know the govt…..really isnt mommy .
People have the frightening responsibility to ….OMG …. save for a rainy day.
2nd
I would have announced that ANY CERB fraud would be dealt with very severly with large fines and possibly imprisonment.
The amount of students , retirees and citizens living outside Canada that applied and received thousands of dollars is disgusting.
3rd
Businesses that applied and recieved CERB cash ( $40k then another 25k) better be ready to show that they absolutely needed it otherwise ALL repaid with punitive interest. A friend of mine was shocked that I didnt apply, ” Its free money and nobody checks!”
The potential for fraud was wide open.
Trudeau doesnt give a sh!t.
It isnt his money.
Its yours and he’ll use it any way he can to buy votes.
Disgusting
That was three items off the top of my head in less time than it takes to empty an elevator.
#117 Dharma Bum on 07.14.21 at 9:06 am
The next prime minister and finance minister should be two folks that can take control of this out-of-control situation.
I vote for Smith & Wesson.
————————
Those guys are already working for the Amis.
And having an impact, as you can see in the number of mass shootings.
# 119 UN: first would have admitted that a global plague had been released by the CPC and stopped all traffic with the communists. Second, protect Canadians by not shipping our PPE reserves to China and leaving Canada defenseless. Third , when Chinese national wanted to flood in with Covid Trudeau had sent them back before they infected thousands.
There are a hundred other ways Teudeau screwed up before the economic damage was done. Too many to list.
#119 unbalanced
“I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs.”
You won’t be hearing from them; they have gone to Mount Sinai. When they come back, they will enlighten us with more wisdom about appliances and kitchen renos.
#121 CEF
Wouda, Couda, Shouda!
Monday Morning Quarterback.
CEF for PM, VOTE here.
#123 Shameless T on 07.14.21 at 10:29 am
# 119 UN: first would have admitted that a global plague had been released by the CPC and stopped all traffic with the communists. Second, protect Canadians by not shipping our PPE reserves to China and leaving Canada defenseless. Third , when Chinese national wanted to flood in with Covid Trudeau had sent them back before they infected thousands.
There are a hundred other ways Teudeau screwed up before the economic damage was done. Too many to list.
———————-
It’s true, we came out of the gate a little late.
But now we’re out in front.
It’s a marathon, not a sprint, my misguided friend.
@#125 Ponzies Potentate
“CEF for PM, VOTE here.”
+++
I accept your nomination on one condition.
Like the Emperors of Rome on their coronation.
I will require a person to whisper in my ear as I walk to the dais, ” momento mori ”
https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/01/23/in-ancient-rome-a-slave-would-continuously-whisper-remember-you-are-mortal-in-the-ears-of-victorious-generals-as-they-were-paraded-through-the-streets-after-coming-home-triumphant-from-battle/
Perhaps we could pay you to remind Trudeau of that fact on his next coronation……?
@Dharma Bum, post #117:
I say bring back Paul Martin on a special assignment. I know it’s hard to believe, but once upon a time the Liberals were more sensible about bringing our country’s finances under control.
#124 Quintilian on 07.14.21 at 10:31 am
#119 unbalanced
“I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs.”
——–
You won’t be hearing from them; they have gone to Mount Sinai. When they come back, they will enlighten us with more wisdom about appliances and kitchen renos.
——–
Upon return, we’ll first need to grind up the golden calf and punish the misguided and sinful by force-feeding them the heavy metal slurry. Only after that can the new commandments be proclaimed. The most important being, of course:
‘There is one true God, but none of you are allowed to talk to him since he only talks to me, so I’ll relay his commands which must be unquestioningly obeyed upon penalty of immediate death.’
Call me Moshe. Moses if you’re an infidel.
#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 10:14 am
@#119
Unbalanced bank account.
——-
“I would like to know how any party in power at this time would have handled this situation differently. I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs. Come on….light up the board”
——-
Businesses that applied and recieved CERB cash ($40k then another 25k) better be ready to show that they absolutely needed it otherwise ALL repaid with punitive interest.
——-
Hey bud, don’t blame the player. That player being, you know… me.
Retroactive punishment for following the rules would be the ultimate in bad faith. Here’s the loan criteria from the official site, https://ceba-cuec.ca/. There is no criteria for need:
‘Every applicant must meet the following criteria:
1. Has an active CRA Business Number (BN) with an effective date of registration on or prior to March 1, 2020.
2. Has an active business chequing/operating account
3. Has not previously used the Canada Emergency Business Account Program
4. Intends to continue to operate its business or to resume operations.’
Sail:
“There is one true God, but none of you are allowed to talk to him since he only talks to me”
Any chance you could ask Her if she could bring back Jim Flaherty and 0 down and 40yr mortgages?
@#128 Doug in Londinium
“….. I know it’s hard to believe, but once upon a time the Liberals were more sensible about bringing our country’s finances under control…..”
++++
Agreed but only after the Budget and Debt became the #1 election issue.
Paul Martin actually stopped the rise of debt and started paying it down.
Unfathomable to todays voters.
The Boomers cared about debt….unlike the sheeple of today.
Our National Debt.
It will come back to bite us all ……but the younger voters more than the older voters.
Millennials, be ready for the tax changes or be run over by them…
It wont be Climate Change that causes coastal flooding…. it’ll be a “moon wobble”….
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article252736353.html#storylink=sectionheadlines
Get ready for Hurricane storm surges and Moon Wobble tides.
Second time looking at Bailey’s photo and rereading story.
Cried again.
Even T2’s foibles don’t bring me to tears anymore.
I just expect it from him.
#119 Unbalanced
What would I have done differently?
Simple: Quarantine the elderly and at risk.
Quarantine meaning: keep away from those that might be able to infect them, and take care of them with the most extreme caution.
Instead we tried to quarantine the entire population without any real effort to safeguard the at risk. Absolutely bizarre approach, and a total failure.
The economic costs and mental health costs to children could have been dramatically lower with many more lives saved.
#119 unbalanced on 07.14.21 at 9:23 am
I would like to know how any party in power at this time would have handled this situation differently. I’m waiting to hear from all you great arm chair quarter backs. Come on….light up the board
——-
A lobotomized baboon would have done a better job.
Trudeau has racked up an unbelievable 13 figure bill for Canadians to service, sat there and did nothing while housing shot out of reach for 99% of new home buyers, forgets to mention he ran around in blackface multiple times until he got caught, kills off the resource sector, lets violent protestors run wild in the streets, and what is it now, 4 or 5 (Several BIPOC) Women bailed/booted from his caucus citing racism, sexism, ethics issues, and poor treatment now?
Trudeau has made the rich vastly richer, moreso than any PM in Canadian history. The poor will have it much worse in the many debt strafed post-Trudeau banana republic years to come. I feel bad for any Canadian youth without rich parents. New Immigrants too – it’ll take 5-6 years of working like a dog before they realize it was a lie right from the start, and head back home empty handed.
A monkey with half a brain wouldn’t have done any of this stuff.
#117 Dharma Bum on 07.14.21 at 9:06 am
The next prime minister and finance minister should be two folks that can take control of this out-of-control situation.
I vote for Smith & Wesson.
——-
I was thinking Heckler & Koch would also do a good job.
I’m a milquetoast Millennial who’s read 1984. I guess you can call me Prince Polo.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/former-ny-fed-exec-worries-about-federal-reserves-ongoing-covid-response/
#114 Slava on 07.14.21 at 8:41 am
#19 AM in MN on 07.13.21 at 4:44 pm
Given that about half of the people in Canada work for some level of Government
————–
I call BS on this number. Provide proof-link.
——
It bounces between 20-25% of the workforce. Not sure if that includes the CAF or not. Still pretty high…
#120 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 10:08 am
#115 Slava on 07.14.21 at 8:46 am
#21 Sail Away on 07.13.21 at 4:49 pm
Let’s say 1 second of impact (which would drive it 18km into the earth)
———
If you decelerate from 18km/s to 0 over 1s period you only travel 9km.
———
Yep, agreed. Looking for a job?
………..
If you decelerate CONSTANTLY …
And does anyone want to work for an engineer who errs by a factor of 1000 on a dead simple N to kN conversion ;)
Hey at least im sure you know the difference between enthalpy and entropy, unlike some bad hair day tv alarmist grifters.
I will have fart know that my bank account is quite balanced. That’s why I retired at 53
#106 BCWally on 07.13.21 at 11:04 pm.
By the way, $1.53 a liter for gas in Kamloops this morning for the people talking inflation.
——-
In BC, your high gas prices are because of taxes. You guys just ate ten cents more per litre this spring via a carbon tax hike. BC will be the first province to see 2.00/l sustained. Tesla time? It might be, in BC…
Here in Ontario, it’s 1.30 or if you’re near a FNR it’s 1.17.
Speaking of high gas prices, I’ve finally decided to part with my cherry-mint 2500HD, that 496ci V8 won’t help much once Trudeau gets his majority and *everyone* is paying BC prices (and then some). I’ll be sad to see her go.
In fact, come the fall, I think I’m going to liquidate the quads and my tandem axle trailer too. I may even downgrade to just one bulldozer. Prices are still high. Best to sell before Trudeau stops handing out free cash and starts taxing everyone to death.
> b) the bank’s benchmark interest rate will stay at just one-quarter of one per cent for a while longer.
Economy’s booming, crisis is over, inflation is picking up, but yet there is no “need” to raise interest rates by even 0.25%… Mmm… Isn’t that odd?
Will we’ll see more such announcements in coming quarters?
@#130 Sail Away
“‘Every applicant must meet the following criteria:
1. Has an active CRA Business Number (BN) with an effective date of registration on or prior to March 1, 2020.
2. Has an active business chequing/operating account
3. Has not previously used the Canada Emergency Business Account Program
4. Intends to continue to operate its business or to resume operations.’”
+++
So essentially is you had a business, a CRA number .
Ticked a box online that said your ” business was affected by Covid”
Poof.
Interest free money not to be paid back for several years ….oh and keep 10k for your “troubles”.
An online, slack, easily abused, cash cow for every shyster and scam artist out there.
Disgusting but I wouldnt expect anything less from a Liberal govt that protects SNC Lavalin every chance it gets.
@#142 Unbalanced political views
“I will have fart know that my bank account is quite balanced. That’s why I retired at 53”
+++
Lotto winner? Govt “Worker”? Realtor?
And it’s Fartz or Fartzy… fart is so …..yesterday.
#141 Bdwy on 07.14.21 at 12:49 pm
If you decelerate CONSTANTLY …
And does anyone want to work for an engineer who errs by a factor of 1000 on a dead simple N to kN conversion ;)
——–
Yes, I find it baffling too.
#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 2:01 pm
@#130 Sail Away
So essentially is you had a business, a CRA number .
Ticked a box online that said your ” business was affected by Covid”
Poof.
Interest free money not to be paid back for several years ….oh and keep 10k for your “troubles”.
An online, slack, easily abused, cash cow for every shyster and scam artist out there.
——-
No Covid box to check. Just apply and receive, baby.
One caveat, though: the loan is interest-free, yes, but to get the $10k forgiven, it needs to be paid off by end of Dec. 2021.
So both my businesses have received the loans and we’ll pay them back (well, minus the $10k gifts) somewhere around November.
If this is offered again, we’ll be first in line.
Speaking of freebies, I immediately applied for that Greener Homes initiative on May 28, received acknowledgement, and have heard nothing since… Heck, if they intend us to accept a free $5k for a heat pump, they better get on it. Anyone else?
#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 2:01 pm
——
Re: CEBA loans
Some additional info regarding the loan forgivenesses:
The initial loan was $40k, with $10k forgiveable.
The sweetener loan was $20k, with also $10k forgiveable.
So… borrow $60k, pay back $40k by Dec. 31, keep $20k.
#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 2:01 pm
@#130 Sail Away
Interest free money not to be paid back for several years ….oh and keep 10k for your “troubles”.
*****************
You forgot the expansion: Another 20K (60K total) and for that one half is a gift (20K total)
#114 Slava
Government spending in Canada amounts to 52% of GDP.
The number of bureaucrats is not all that relevant, except for the massive unfunded liability that their pensions represent.
I’m going to enjoy watching the people yammering for ever more taxes, bureaucracy and regulation pay for it.
They are so naive, they actually think someone else will pay for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_spending_as_percentage_of_GDP
That’s why I retired at 53”
+++
Lotto winner? Govt “Worker”? Realtor?
……….
I last worked in 1999, but the wife pulled the pin recently, 53 also.
Yvr property lotto, hardcore savers, diy master, and bargain hound. (I just came from the recycling depot , needed dark paint. Lowes 70 bucks , i paid 0.00)
#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 11:59 am
@#128 Doug in Londinium
“….. I know it’s hard to believe, but once upon a time the Liberals were more sensible about bringing our country’s finances under control…..”
++++
Agreed but only after the Budget and Debt became the #1 election issue.
Paul Martin actually stopped the rise of debt and started paying it down.
Unfathomable to todays voters.
The Boomers cared about debt….unlike the sheeple of today.
Our National Debt.
It will come back to bite us all ……but the younger voters more than the older voters.
Millennials, be ready for the tax changes or be run over by them…
——
If Martin was still running the Libs, I’d vote for him over O’Tool. Alas, the LPC has lost its mind. Hell, if Mulcair was still running the NDP he’d actually be looking good. Alas, the NDP has also lost its mind.
I guess it will be the tool for me, unless I decide to punish Liberal voters – by voting for Trudeau…
#150 SoggyShorts on 07.14.21 at 2:56 pm
#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.21 at 2:01 pm
@#130 Sail Away
Interest free money not to be paid back for several years ….oh and keep 10k for your “troubles”.
*****************
You forgot the expansion: Another 20K (60K total) and for that one half is a gift (20K total)
——
Trudeau really does love rich business owners!
The road to winning in Canada under the Liberals:
1. Own a house
2. Own liquid assets
3. Own a business (independent of O+G).
Earning a wage? Fail. (Unless it’s a union govy job)
#120 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 10:08 am
Yep, agreed. Looking for a job?
==============================
I might be. Who are you hiring?
#149 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 2:54 pm
So… borrow $60k, pay back $40k by Dec. 31, keep $20k.
—————————————
It is Dec 31, 2022 now, not 21. Extra year of interest free loan.
ps. please don’t think I’m stalking you.
#151 Mean Small Government Guy on 07.14.21 at 2:57 pm
Government spending in Canada amounts to 52% of GDP.
——————————–
And? Completely irrelevant piece of data, and not to mention it is for year 2020, when the government spent double of what it collected in taxes.
Not related to the number of govt employees.
#155 Slava on 07.14.21 at 6:30 pm
#120 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 10:08 am
Yep, agreed. Looking for a job?
———-
I might be. Who are you hiring?
———-
Engineers, techs, PMs.
#156 Slava on 07.14.21 at 6:32 pm
#149 Sail Away on 07.14.21 at 2:54 pm
So… borrow $60k, pay back $40k by Dec. 31, keep $20k.
———-
It is Dec 31, 2022 now, not 21. Extra year of interest free loan.
ps. please don’t think I’m stalking you.
———-
It’s fine, there are others in my rhododendrons ahead of you. Good heads-up on the extra year, thanks. We’d been planning to pay back this year.
Wish the same humanity and compassion expressed towards all animals on this blog was equally shared towards those in our society (human kind) that need it. Unfortunately it seems we have lost our priorities toward our sisters and brothers..