Torrid no more

Weeks ago a certain pathetic yet fully-inoculated blog told you the real estate mayhem would subside. FOMO would ease. People would get diverted back to other things, like travel, shopping, going to work and finding their pants.

Lo, it happened. It now looks a lot as if March of 2021 – exactly twelve months after that slimy little pathogen slithered and snorfled its way into our lives – was peak house. That’s when we saw the bloodiest bidding wars, the most desperate blind auctions and the greatest number of misguided moisters scampering off to Bunnypatch, taking their tats, manbuns, weird food habits and city prices with them.

Now the June stats confirm it. In Vancouver, for example, sales tumbled 12% from May levels whilst prices – for the first time since this madness began – stalled out. A detached was $1.8 million in May and didn’t budge in June, even as the number of listings fell 18%.

“We’re now seeing a market that’s beginning to normalize from the torrid pace in the spring,” says the head wizard realtor. “This is making multiple offers less common, allowing subjects to be seen on offers more frequently again, and is making new price records less likely.”

And, hey, gander at the GTA. The benchmark price… (wait for it)… (gasp)… fell in June. Okay it was a decline of only $10,500, but that came after months when the number surged relentlessly to peak at $1.1 million. And sales are 26% lower than they were in March. Concedes the real estate board: “The record pace of sales has run its course as pent-up demand has increasingly been satisfied.”

And why not? As we told you the other day, houses have not been this unaffordable for almost four decades, despite mortgages still being written at 1.8%. Across Canada prices have romped 32% during the pandemic, and average wages have stagnated. To compensate, people have been borrowing massively taking loan obligations to a new crescendo. How these folks think they’ll manage when rates are doubled by renewal time is an open guess. Too much hopium.

Meanwhile, WFH is dying and gasping like a beached carp. NYC is basically open at pre-pandemic levels by the end of this month. The Toronto financial core will not be far behind. Sure, some companies will ditch costly real estate and go remote, but odds are most of the 275,000 people who streamed into the 416 core daily to populate the towers will be back there again by October.

So, when 90% of citizens without property can’t afford to buy and Covid’s on the way out of our lives ending 15 months of weirdness, there’s only one conclusion. What just happened was not the new normal. It was an aberration. And prices will actually come down in many areas over the next year as life resumes while inflation and rates start to swell. Remember what we told you about recency bias? Bingo.

But wait. Who’s that dark figure on the ridge?

It’s Romy Bowers, the new boss at CMHC after rebel Evan Siddall proved to be too principled to survive in T2’s Ottawa. You may recall that last summer the housing agency which then insured half the country’s mortgages decided to tighten up the regs for borrowers. At the time Siddall said, “We felt these changes would protect homebuyers, reduce government and taxpayer risk and support the stability of housing markets while curtailing excessive demand and unsustainable price growth.”

Hmm. Protect people? Lower taxpayer risk? Stabilize a runaway market? Moderate prices? What was this man thinking?

As a result of increasing credit scores and dropping the amount people could effectively borrow, CMHC lost a lot of market share to private competitors who decided risk is good and taxpayers don’t matter. So now Romy’s done a volte-face. The minimum credit score drops for both a borrower and a guarantor. And debt service ratios go up, up, allowing bigger loans.

Why? “We are taking this action because our July 2020 underwriting changes were not as effective as we had anticipated and we incurred the cost of a decline in our market share,” says the agency. If you had any illusions a government body is more ethical and publicly-minded than a grimy for-profit financial institution, abandon them immediately.

Will the reversal and easy-loan policy at CMHC heat up a cooling market?

Probably not. Outfits like Sagen (formerly Genworth) now dominate the biz as mortgage brokers and lenders already send them the lion’s share of new loans. If you really want to diddle your future with a honking big loan and use 20x leverage to buy an inflated asset at an all-time high, nobody’s stopping you.

But the trip back down will sure be interesting.

About the picture: “This is our dog Willow,” writes Wayne, in Cornwall.  “She is a 3 year old Vizsla. Willow loves to be near the water and rooting around in the cattails.”

121 comments ↓

#1 Firsty McFirsterson on 07.06.21 at 4:10 pm

First!!!

#2 Brian Ripley on 07.06.21 at 4:12 pm

My Housing Charts for Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto are up with the June data:
http://www.chpc.biz/

Calgary housing remains the best value among the 3 by a long shot. For example, Calgary condos are trading at 1Q 2006 prices while strata prices in Vancouver and Toronto remain at the recent highs as newbies crawl onto the “property ladder”.

Average Detached House Prices in the last 10 years are up:
136% in Toronto
120% in Vancouver
22% in Calgary

Listings per Sales
2.9 in Vancouver
2.4 in Calgary
1.0 in Toronto

#3 Thresher on 07.06.21 at 4:12 pm

CMHC should have been shut down in the 1980’s. Certainly it serves no purpose in the current day – using taxpayer dollars to insure the loans of multi-billion-dollar-profiting banks.

I just about hurled when I saw the changes being made in order to compete against the private companies in the market.

Just damn stupid.

#4 Leftover on 07.06.21 at 4:17 pm

My local realtor buddy reports that sales to new listings dropped to 38% in June – a shocker for his office since they were running at 80% earlier this year.

Pent-up supply?

#5 TurnerNation on 07.06.21 at 4:24 pm

— #32 Dogman01 on 07.05.21 at 3:32 pm you nailed it. The goal of of the Economic Shutdowns was to burden all the (Former) First World Countries with endless debt. That is the BEAST System; yes we are the Beasts of Burden. Tax farm residents, working .

Evidence? Ontariowe already had the greatest debt levels of any soverign state. And it is the only place in North America – maybe the world – still banning indoor dining and normal business activities. Coincidence?

–WW1 style tents is all we got in this current war. Who got the fat contracts to build this?

.Hamilton Health Sciences takes down field hospital that didn’t see a single COVID-19 Ontario (cbc.ca)

— Once the hype and money dies down, the real Science returns. But hey it got rid of Trump right?

.Santa Clara County Revises Official COVID-19 Death Toll Down by 22 Percent (sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com)
“The county reported that it had reviewed each COVID-19 fatality and was only counting those whose cause of death was from the virus and not those who tested positive for COVID-19 at the time of death but did not necessarily die from the virus. The new approach meant that the death toll dropped by 22%, specifically from 2,201 to 1,696 deaths.”

———–

Still a State of Emergency in Ontariowe (keeps getting renewed) and now BC. Unlimited power eh?

“Denis Rancourt @denisrancourt – Researcher, Ontario Civil Liberties Association (http://ocla.ca). Former tenured Full Professor of Physics.

COVID proved that, in Canada, they can implement whatever destructive mass campaign they want, to the limit, and there are virtually no democratic, legal, institutional or professional-association safeguards whatsoever. Shocking encounter with reality. That illusion is gone.”

Nina Gemsis @littlegemsis – Replying to @denisrancourt
Here in BC, the emergency is now wildfires. The government lifted the State of Emergency due to Covid on July 1st, only to declare a new provincial State of Emergency due to fires on July 5th. The “New Normal” indeed. Democracy is dead.

_____________________________

#6 Woke up this morning... on 07.06.21 at 4:26 pm

Garth,

How can we even pretend these numbers matter? That any of this is not highly manipulated? That it’s not just a giant pie in the sky? That it matters?

I can guarantee you that 79% of these statistics are between 50-and-88% wrong with 9 out of 10 certainty and know 4 out of 5 dentists who agree with this statement.

Bank is buying debt like crazy. Keeps interest low unnaturally because if people didn’t slave to the debt it would all freeze up like North Pole.

CMHC is going back in deep now that Evan is gone.
Realtors come up with some scrubbed HPI number a bunch of years ago and the guys tracking inflation were like – hey that worked? Let’s do that too! Inflation CPIX has been completely split up into some trim, median and common readings that further muddy the waters and of course none of those numbers tell the truth of inflation because “volatile” things are scrubbed.

I know we’re here spending like crazy in this pandemic, going in debt like crazy to enslave future generations, but I still don’t know how over a decade of emergency rates and QE didn’t make a dent in the US GDP for example – pretty much flat for over a decade until the pandemic floored it. Makes you wonder about some things I tell ya.

#7 Cto on 07.06.21 at 4:29 pm

CMHC…just like the BoC will do what their puppet masters demand of them.
There is the number 1 priority of government in Canada today, and that is real estate absolutely has to stay buoyant, or it bye bye economy….
I never thought I would be saying this but our economy is real estate and real estate is our economy.
I feel bad for our children…

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 4:36 pm

CMHC or the CRTC
.
Govt appointed lapdogs and hacks for the Govt du jour.

Eradicate both echo chambers for the Trudeau govt.

The taxpayers will be well served.

#9 No Canadian Stanley Cup Winner in neraly 3 decades on 07.06.21 at 4:41 pm

Read an article on CBC News about how Canadian hockey talent is going down south to play because taxes are lower, real estate is cheaper and way way better and…well…weather of course.

The point was – why would you stay and play for a Canadian team – you dummy! EXACTLY!

Now, dummy fans on the other hand – they will pay for the real estate and overpriced hockey tickets. We got them by the pucks!

#10 I’m stupid on 07.06.21 at 4:44 pm

And if Genworth gets into financial difficulties because of defaults they’ll get bailed out… so why not open the flood gates get too big to fail and bingo you always win.

#11 Cynics on 07.06.21 at 4:45 pm

How many people on here are cynics?

Current meaning, not those “crazy” Cynics that lived in virtue and one with nature back in the Greek days.

#12 Nanaimupo on 07.06.21 at 4:47 pm

Over here in Nanaimo, prices just keep going up.

A reminder that when you buy into the very best opportunities, you are rewarded with home equity.

We have lots of room to grow if you all want to come. So far I have only seen two cyclists use the multi million dollar bike lane they put from nowhere to nowhere. On the other hand, the new Nanaimo sign is a hit with the kiddos.

In case you were wondering, we use the donut theory to outperform other regions.

#13 Honest Realtor on 07.06.21 at 5:00 pm

Garth, the part you are missing is the massive burst in demand we are about to experience.

Immigration after COVID will be epic, and last for a decade and more.

Like you said, people will be eager to move into major centres again.

Tripling of RE values in major centres by 2035 is a certainty. But quadrupling is also a serious possibility.

Pump, pump, pump. No wonder people hate you. – Garth

#14 In Dog We Trust on 07.06.21 at 5:16 pm

Read today that home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continue to outpace new listings meaning less and even lesser new listings… So less supply and still too much demand makes me wonder about your predictions here…

#15 DrPlant on 07.06.21 at 5:18 pm

Now that Sagen is now completely owned by Brookfield, an American corporation, I would really like to know why us taxpayers backstop their loans almost as much as we backstop the CMHC loans. No wonder why Sagen will insure pretty much anybody. There’s some serious moral hazard at play here me thinks.

#16 TurnerNation on 07.06.21 at 5:18 pm

New York ? Same as Kanada. Perpetual “State of Emergency” under way. This is like a bad movie. Probably until 2030….

“Gov. Andrew Cuomo has issued the first-in-the-nation Executive Order declaring gun violence in New York as a Disaster Emergency — the first step in a comprehensive plan that aims to tackle the surge in gun violence throughout the state.
The disaster emergency status will allow the state to address the gun violence crisis by expediting money and resources to communities so they can begin targeting gun violence immediately.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/watch-cuomo-issues-executive-order-declaring-gun-violence-in-ny-a-disaster-emergency/ar-AALQv5E?ocid=uxbndlbing

————-
Lond bonds on a tear: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=d1

–We must be kept in a state of FEAR:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-ultra-contagious-lambda-variant-detected-in-australia/LAUYIDU2L7SSWMX6IQDTOYCX6A/
“Covid 19 coronavirus: Ultra-contagious Lambda variant detected in Australia”

.Spain restricts nightlife as virus surges among the young (euronews.com)
———————————————————
———-

From the Killing us Softly Dept. Still trust Big Business now?

Baby Foods Are Tainted with Dangerous Levels of
Arsenic, Lead, Cadmium, and Mercury
https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/2021-02-04%20ECP%20Baby%20Food%20Staff%20Report.pdf
Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy
Committee on Oversight and Reform
U.S. House of Representatives
February 4, 2021

————–

Bonus:

YRP cop accused of working as realtor while on duty
https://www.cp24.com/news/yrp-cop-accused-of-working-as-realtor-while-on-duty-1.5498400

#17 Major Liberal on 07.06.21 at 5:19 pm

Justin just sealed with with the G.G. appointment.

Brilliant.

Majority!

#18 Dogman01 on 07.06.21 at 5:20 pm

Inflation helps people who owe money.
Low Interest rates help people that own money.

Canadian Governments owe a lot of money.
Canadians are deeply in debt and owe a lot of money.

Interest rates are set by people whom owe a heck of a lot of money.
Our government with MMT can just print, they no longer need to have a higher interest rates to attract private Bond money.
Printing causes Inflation and Inflation helps people who owe lots of money.

Therefore:
– Inflation will be chronically under reported but will still be quite high for a long time.
– Wage earners will be trashed, as wages will not rise like real inflation – workers never did matter anyway.
– Asset prices will rise faster than Inflation, the Bond market is much larger than the equity market and money will die in the Bond market so it all has to find assets. – those with assets are the only ones that matter anyway.
– The Wage earning masses, workers (the eternal losers) will be fractured and distracted by Identity Politics, Climate Change etc (the new manufactured religion of Wokeism) . They will not notice the economic “take-down”. (just like they have not noticed the last 40 years of Globalization)

Use debt to buy assets then use the asset price Inflation to service the low interest debt = Winner winner, Chicken Dinner!

If you work for a living or are young with no assets —-” It’s a big club and you ain’t in it”

#19 Mean Guy on 07.06.21 at 5:23 pm

Canada’s debt to GDP might be lower than the USA’s, but before you get too smug about it you should look at why that is.

One big reason is the spendthrift yanks fund their insanity via deficits and keep taxation low.

High government debt, low household debt.

We ‘smart’ Canadians are in the opposite position: lower government debt, but much higher household debt. Dramatically higher.

Here’s the rub: when the SHTF governments that print their own currency and have their debt predominantly in that currency cannot go bankrupt.

Canada and the US can print their official debt away.

But heavily indebted citizens can’t.

We polite canucks will go bankrupt in far greater numbers than those loud yanks.

That Canadian smugness will turn into despair pretty quickly.

It’s just a matter of when, not if.

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 5:24 pm

Beautiful dog.
Beautiful picture.

#21 Ustabe on 07.06.21 at 5:32 pm

A few carryover thoughts from yesterday…

Catholic Church completes a $128 million dollar renovation on a Toronto cathedral one year after paying out less than $4 million to residential school survivors despite promising them $25 million. And they got a judge to OK it to boot. Go ahead, ask me for a source.

Let no one think the churches are unable to spend money/pay taxes because attendance is declining. You and your neighbour may no longer attend but not unlike the tobacco companies they just shift their efforts to other countries, siphoning money all the while.

While a certain congregation may not be wealthy, others remain so. A group of congregations makes a parish. A number of parishes (Anglican) makes a Deanery. To an Archdeanery and onto a Diocese. Finally, in Canada, Ecclesiastical Provinces (4) and then onto one General Synod.

The wealth trickles up…the archbishop of a Diocese makes less than an archbishop of a Ecclesiastical Province. They both make more than a plain old bishop.

And they all contribute to the overarching organization.

But, but my church feeds the poor! Yes, and they can deduct the cost of that from their taxes next year.

#22 Brunett43 on 07.06.21 at 5:39 pm

#13 Honest Realtor my arse. No such thing. Now that I’m in my final home (until death do I part) I will likely never have to deal with an R/E agent ever again. They make used car salesmen look honest. Especially in this market as of late, you can see the $$$$ floating around their heads like halos. What has always p’d me off was that I did all the work selling my homes (4), cleaning, landscaping, staging. That was no joyride with 2 kids and 2 dogs. My last move in 2019 I had viewers, 2-5x a week, all came with different agents and this went on for 5 weeks. I was exhausted. When it sold, I had to write a fat check to my selling agent. For what? Posting my listing online on the MLS website. WOOF!

#23 Inflation on 07.06.21 at 5:40 pm

I have been keeping track of some townhouses in the Northern part of Toronto, North York/Richmond Hill. No more bidding wars, sellers are relisting now with their “real” asking price, stuff is staying listed longer. Wait till the inflation numbers come in for June and July, even a small interest rate move would cause stress for many plus a withdraw of liquidity in the system by the central banks. Peak house is over, now it’s just a matter of how low and how fast.

#24 Sail Away on 07.06.21 at 5:43 pm

#12 Nanaimupo on 07.06.21 at 4:47 pm

We have lots of room to grow if you all want to come. So far I have only seen two cyclists use the multi million dollar bike lane they put from nowhere to nowhere. On the other hand, the new Nanaimo sign is a hit with the kiddos.

———

Maybe, but what do you think about the new Jinglepot/Westwood intersection?

In my opinion, whoever designed that did a fantastic job.

#25 Something something on 07.06.21 at 5:46 pm

#13 Honest Realtor

Tripling of RE values in major centres by 2035 is a certainty. But quadrupling is also a serious possibility.

So…$5M for a Toronto detached?

With 25% inflation…yeah, why not.

#26 Dolce Vita on 07.06.21 at 5:47 pm

As predicted, Italia sends España back to its windswept beaches and greasy food (and cheap beer that even I like, ¡Viva! Barcelona).

4-2 penalty shots.

——————-

Too much debt in the nation Garth be it Gov or Plebeians.

It will not end well.

When, who knows?

The Piper will eventually have to be paid.

#27 Steel City Kid on 07.06.21 at 5:48 pm

Time to bring the HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE! guy out of mothballs. I miss those deranged yet inspired, oddly stirring anti-realtor rants he used to post here in the good old days.

#28 Kiril Peev on 07.06.21 at 5:55 pm

Market Summary:

The Ottawa real estate market has continued to balance out. Days on market and active listings continue to slowly go up while prices for homes, townhomes and condos have been flat over the past few months.

Bidding wars are mostly over save for the top 20% of properties.

Historically active listings climb until the end of June and then start falling. If active listings continue to climb into July and August that could put downward pressure on prices.

https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-market-update-for-june-2021/

#29 Idiocy on 07.06.21 at 6:00 pm

Not sure housing will cool off very much.

1) Canada has had virtually NO immigration for about 16 months. There will be a big backlog.

2) Immigration quota is being raised to 450,000 7 year from 300,000.

3) the new reversal and easy loan policy of the CMHC as outlined in today’s blog

4) provinces and municipalities have done nothing to speed up the glacial approvals process for new development / building

This ‘housing crisis’ has always been and always will be due to government intervention at all levels of government,

From very restrictive land use policies to the role of CMHC to purposefully obstructing the development process.

People buying houses have NO idea of how much cheaper they could be. Try 40 to 50 % cheaper.

#30 Naniamo Community Association on 07.06.21 at 6:04 pm

#24 Sail Away on 07.06.21 at 5:43 pm

#12 Nanaimupo on 07.06.21 at 4:47 pm

We have lots of room to grow if you all want to come. So far I have only seen two cyclists use the multi million dollar bike lane they put from nowhere to nowhere. On the other hand, the new Nanaimo sign is a hit with the kiddos.

———

Maybe, but what do you think about the new Jinglepot/Westwood intersection?

In my opinion, whoever designed that did a fantastic job.
………
Dangerous disaster.. engineers involved should be taken to court.

#31 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:11 pm

I walked into the supermarket today here in BC. I held up a mask and asked the cashier if we needed these? She said you can wear one for your safety. “Then they are optional?” “‘Yes.”

Back into the pocket, it went.

Walking through the store, practically everyone was wearing a mask. I’m guessing of 100 people only 3 had no mask. I was one. In other stores, the 3% ratio seems to hold up.

It saddened me to think that government propaganda worked so effectively. People who fear dying so badly that they will wrap a lie around their face surely are not able to live.

BTW, guys, girls look at you differently when you project brave. It could be the icebreaker you need.

#32 renter in Surrey on 07.06.21 at 6:12 pm

When Liberals get majority next election and Mark Carney will run BOC, RE prices will easily double from todays level.

#33 twofatcats on 07.06.21 at 6:14 pm

The ugly and unaffordable housing market will only get worse.

Down here in Niagara, convenience store owners are selling to developers who tear down the store and put up a house or duplex. These ugly ‘houses’ go up in a few weeks, look cheap and are cheap, and yes, they are selling like hotcakes.

We also have restaurant owners being approached by developers who will tear down the restaurant and put up housing.

Vacant farmland is being sold off to developers to put up more housing. I drove through Binbrook a few weeks ago. Binbrook used to be a farming community.
Surprise! Out of nowhere, these tract-housing crammed suburbs popped up with thousands of cars parked along the streets. I thought maybe there was a circus in town due to the number of cars all over the place. But no… this is how these people live so they can say they own a house.

#34 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:19 pm

You do intersections, SA?

What is it with these delayed left turns? Surely they can’t be more efficient. You guys just put those in to waste our time, burn more gas and thus send more gas tax revenue to the government. Am I right?

#35 Chalkie on 07.06.21 at 6:32 pm

Some of the WFM dreamers who ran for cottage country to live out their careers by the lake, will soon face the reality of,” its back to the city at your Desk boys & Gals or be replaced”, it’s just a reality shocker of what has to be for the economy to be competitive.
Start burning those extra sets of pajamas and pick up an extra suit, so you wont stick out at the office tower back in hog town.

#36 Father's Daughter on 07.06.21 at 6:44 pm

Well not entirely sure where prices are going to go but I am sure hoping down as predicted
Houses in our neighbourhood are starting to sit longer (2+ weeks) and are getting re-listed for a few hundred thousand lower
One way to save some money is to get rid of real estate agents altogether
They book showings (can be done online)
They send listings (publicly available)
They send comparables that have sold (publicly available)
There is really no value that is added to the transaction and their commission is absurd. The lying and the stupid sales games that everyone is forced to play have no place

#37 Sail Away on 07.06.21 at 6:45 pm

#34 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:19 pm

You do intersections, SA?

What is it with these delayed left turns? Surely they can’t be more efficient. You guys just put those in to waste our time, burn more gas and thus send more gas tax revenue to the government. Am I right?

———

I can’t talk about that

#38 45north on 07.06.21 at 7:06 pm

Torrid no more

It now looks a lot as if March of 2021 was peak house.

Jeremy Grantham talks about bubbles. He says that markets inflate and deflate – they don’t stand still. The housing market has just had the most tremendous inflation in history, it’s going to deflate just as fast. We’re going to go from torrid to frigid.

#39 Quintilian on 07.06.21 at 7:06 pm

#32
“When Liberals get majority next election and Mark Carney will run BOC, RE prices will easily double from todays level.”

Bookmark this post.

Next election is a long way off, come autumn the Liberals will run the country as if they had a majority.

The NDP will not dare force an election, and a non confidence vote is the only way an election can be triggered.

#40 FriedEggs on 07.06.21 at 7:07 pm

Learn to swim.

#41 cuke and tomato picker on 07.06.21 at 7:14 pm

Yes I agree with number 36 that real estate agents do not add value to our society they do not produce any additional wealth. However they bring buyer and seller
together and for that they charge a fee.

#42 Concerned Citizen on 07.06.21 at 7:25 pm

“But the trip back down will sure be interesting.”

I’ll believe it when I see it. Bond yields have been trending down the last couple months, and the Fed – the central bank from which all others take their lead – is still buying at least $120 billion per month in bonds, despite all the evidence of asset bubbles. No signs of any taper, to say nothing of ending asset purchases entirely.

Hard to see home prices decline with interest rates this low. Even if the average Josephine can’t afford real estate, the big companies will continue to borrow heavily at negative real rates to buy. Families are no longer needed to support home prices.

What central banks call “stimulus”, I call “wealth inequality accelerant”. With a huge chunk of young people unable to afford a home, it’s easy to see the middle class shrinking considerably over the next 10-20 years. So apparently ignorant of their policies gruesome side effects, one could be forgiven for believing the central bankers are either incompetent or doing this by design.

#43 the Jaguar on 07.06.21 at 7:26 pm

Don’t blame CMHC. They aren’t the villains. CREA is where you want to start your forensic analysis into the belly of the real estate beast. Talkin’ major league grifters at high levels when their name is referenced. “Caporegime” as the mafioso say…..

When it’s all over we’ll see what the Coroner’s Report says..
Make sure you take along your smelling salts. Pack your Luger, too.

The most interesting thing during times of high crimes and misdemeanors is watching where the smart money goes and the patience and timing with which it is released. It’s like watching thoroughbreds at Belmont Park. The very reason there will never be equality of outcome no matter how feverishly some might wish for it to be so.. Enough said.

Thank you for your kind references to Evan Siddall and his character, Garth. We have him safe and sound in Alberta these days. Now if we could only capture Nigel Wright.

Willow has beautiful caramel eyes. So alert. They say ” Loyalty and Vigilance. I’ll never leave your side “.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 7:27 pm

I’d like to add something to the addiction discussion yesterday, if I may.
Addiction is the curse of the modern, consumer driven world.
Most people just focus on substance abuse addictions.
I define addiction as an affliction that completely takes over your life, and you’d do anything to satisfy your cravings.
Many people think there are good addictions like workaholism, or the close cousin of gambling ,”day trading”.
If any of those activities are taking over your life, seek professional help, or if you are like Sailo, who thinks addiction is a choice, stop it ASAP.

#45 the Jaguar on 07.06.21 at 7:33 pm

Oh, I can’t help myself. Here’s a little plug for my big love, Nigel. From Jan/2021.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-baird-nigel-wright-head-up-new-group-to-organize-right-leaning-canadians-abroad

#46 Lee on 07.06.21 at 7:33 pm

#13 Honest Realtor,

Democrat and Liberal governments are moving towards multi-unit residential properties in rural areas. It’s all Biden talks about. Trudeau will soon follow. Which Means many immigrants will be redirected to smaller towns. I don’t know if real estate is going up, but if it does, it won’t be because of immigration. Governments usually set new build numbers to accommodate the influx from immigration even if they don’t do the buying.

#47 Sandy Attenborough on 07.06.21 at 7:44 pm

Toronto is talking about raising the land transfer tax and Mississauga is talking about implementing a land transfer tax. Real estate is going to get whacked.

#48 mark on 07.06.21 at 7:48 pm

Let’s btdh some more.
Peak house.

#49 Another Deckchair on 07.06.21 at 7:49 pm

Back to FIRE for a bit.

A young couple I know are moving, and the job the primary earner was in line for has been delayed (COVID – nobody’s meeting to discuss appointments – WFH is not great performance-wise).

Stress? Nope. They have the financials in order, can survive times like this until the paperwork goes through.

Living well within your means (the “FI” of “FIRE”) and putting $$ away for rainy days is a stress-free way of going through your life.

My partner and I did this since the day we met, and this young couple were ears-open to how to enjoy a stress-reduced life. Kudos to them for listening!

#50 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 8:04 pm

#16 Turner Nation
Bonus:

YRP cop accused of working as realtor while on duty
https://www.cp24.com/news/yrp-cop-accused-of-working-as-realtor-while-on-duty-1.5498400
—————-
Smart cop.
Getting out before he gets defunded, replaced by a social worker.

#51 Wrk.dover on 07.06.21 at 8:19 pm

#33 twofatcats on 07.06.21 at 6:14 pm

I drove through Binbrook a few weeks ago. Binbrook used to be a farming community.
Surprise! Out of nowhere, these tract-housing crammed suburbs popped up with thousands of cars parked along the streets. I thought maybe there was a circus in town due to the number of cars all over the place. But no… this is how these people live so they can say they own a house.
__________________________________

To the unfamiliar; Binbrook near the Hamilton air field was a sign on a post 25 years ago! There was a small barn smack dab against one corner of the only intersection.

Now it is an example of civilization gone wrong! More housing stock than Mississagua had in 1950, and not a job within miles, except cashier/clerk.

A crack pipe leads to a better future than Binbrook.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 8:37 pm

@#50 Ponzie’s Perfect Pearl
A Police paradigm

“Smart cop.
Getting out before he gets defunded, replaced by a social worker.”

+++

THAT was damn funny!
Well done.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 8:44 pm

$4 Million in drugs and $320,000 in cash ….in a taxi.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/07/06/vancouver-drugs-cash-taxi-gang/

Seized, two people charged ….. and released the same day….
Does no one in authority see the optics of releasing these people THE SAME DAY?
Couldnt we hold fentanyl “dealers” for ummmmm …..two days?
A week?

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 9:03 pm

#45 the Jaguar on 07.06.21 at 7:33 pm
Oh, I can’t help myself. Here’s a little plug for my big love, Nigel. From Jan/2021.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-baird-nigel-wright-head-up-new-group-to-organize-right-leaning-canadians-abroad
—————
Lots of potential recruits on this blog.
“Blogdogs of Fortune”

#55 Damifino on 07.06.21 at 9:06 pm

#39 Quintilian

The NDP will not dare force an election, and a non confidence vote is the only way an election can be triggered.
——————————–

Really? In theory, at least, can’t the prime minister go to the governor general claiming to have lost the confidence of the house (in his opinion) and ask for parliament to be dissolved?

Wouldn’t that trigger an election without an actual non-confidence vote taking place? Just wondering.

Of course. And he will. Dippers and Tories have nothing to say about it. – Garth

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 9:19 pm

@#212 Sociologist Sara
“Copy/paste error.”

++++
Error?
I thought there was an earthquake…..

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 9:33 pm

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 8:37 pm
@#50 Ponzie’s Perfect Pearl
A Police paradigm

“Smart cop.
Getting out before he gets defunded, replaced by a social worker.”

+++

THAT was damn funny!
Well done.
———–
Well, it was kinda tongue in cheek.
Police should focus on enforcing the law and not be social workers, it’s not fair to them.

#58 Barb on 07.06.21 at 9:56 pm

Willow is lovely… photo would’ve been a blur if a duck had splash-landed nearby.

#59 Prince Polo on 07.06.21 at 10:09 pm

https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/known-unknowns-1c3

What is good tax policy?
When I learned public finance, I was taught that any tax is distortionary because the whole process of taking money from individuals and putting it somewhere else can result in loss. That loss may be worth it, however, as sometimes it pays off because we invest the money in useful things, like canals, or if we provide insurance to people who need it – but the whole tax process is distortionary, there’s no way around it. So the goal of tax policy should be taking as much revenue as you can while trying to minimize distortions.

Cut to our current tax debate, where these concerns get no attention. The goal seems less about minimizing distortions/maximizing revenue and more about punishment, i.e., rich people for making too much in a zero-sum world and corporations for being greedy.

#60 SW on 07.06.21 at 10:25 pm

#31 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:11 pm
“I walked into the supermarket today…(I’m too special to wear a mask)…People who fear dying so badly that they will wrap a lie around their face surely are not able to live.
BTW, guys, girls look at you differently when you project brave. It could be the icebreaker you need.”

Nah. The reason they look at you funny is because your mask would be there is to protect them and you’re not wearing one.

I bet you say you’d wear a condom too.

#61 Cici on 07.06.21 at 10:39 pm

Hey thanks, I did not know that. You really know your stuff!

I still disagree with burning down churches though. The churches that were involved in residential school misconduct should be made to pay up, especially if they promised to do so. But there’s got to be a better way of getting them to do so.

Torching them definitely isn’t going to accomplish much apart from discrediting the entire movement in the eyes of the general public. And trying to guilt worshippers into not attending mass isn’t going to win respect or accomplish much either.

Need more sound, lucid and knowledgeable people like yourself to speak up and keep the pressure up without letting things escalate into violence, hatred and lack of respect toward those who weren’t directly involved. And the community needs to toss all the inflammatory sensationalists with calls to action to ‘burn it all down” or who don’t have their facts straight and keep yelling about “mass graves” or “children being tossed into pits” before there are facts to back up such incendiary claims. Those types of comments may garner a lot of attention at first not so much if those shock revelations are uncorroborated or proven false.

In the near-future, I’m hoping the discourse will calm down somewhat but that pressure will continue to mount until the survivors get what was promised to them. After that, I’m hoping the communities continue to grow, build, flourish and contribute more to the country through positive education, awareness and sharing of their amazingly rich culture and heritage. But please no more Woke finger-pointing, name-calling or war cries to reset our supposed communal “white-privilege” “colonialist” mindthink. That’s just derogatory and insulting, and only complete idiots will submit to that.

#62 Cici on 07.06.21 at 10:41 pm

#21 Ustabe, the above was a thanks to you. Accidental delete, ooops!

#63 Druglyfe on 07.06.21 at 10:47 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.21 at 8:44 pm

Lemme guess:

Richmond or Surrey
Headed to or from a casino (or a REMax office)

#64 Cici on 07.06.21 at 10:52 pm

#27 Steel City Kid

Exactly! Me too! He was disturbed in a refreshingly funny way.

#65 Paulo on 07.06.21 at 10:55 pm

well with barley 10% of people now able to afford a house i think there will be a severe shortage of qualified purchasers as one would expect when a commodity is priced out of market! as to the real estate pumpers salivating on imaginary immigration keep dreaming, i live in a college town that is seeing a significant drop in foreign student enrolment primarily due to excessive and onerous lodging costs same goes with qualified immigrants the USA is now there primary choice along with the students add poor employment and pay levels in this country we are pricing ourselves out of the immigration game

#66 Nonplused on 07.06.21 at 11:10 pm

#21 Ustabe on 07.06.21 at 5:32 pm
A few carryover thoughts from yesterday…

Catholic Church completes a $128 million dollar renovation on a Toronto cathedral one year after paying out less than $4 million to residential school survivors despite promising them $25 million. And they got a judge to OK it to boot. Go ahead, ask me for a source.

Let no one think the churches are unable to spend money/pay taxes because attendance is declining. You and your neighbour may no longer attend but not unlike the tobacco companies they just shift their efforts to other countries, siphoning money all the while.

————————————-

On what basis would you tax churches without say also taxing the Scouts and say youth sports? It is a non-profit and without profit there is nothing to tax. The million dollar a year pastors at the mega churches are another matter, but they do pay income tax. So do the priests at the Catholic churches but their income is usually quite modest.

#67 Summertime on 07.06.21 at 11:13 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 07.06.21 at 4:24 pm
— #32 Dogman01 on 07.05.21 at 3:32 pm you nailed it. The goal of of the Economic Shutdowns was to burden all the (Former) First World Countries with endless debt. That is the BEAST System; yes we are the Beasts of Burden. Tax farm residents, working .

Evidence? Ontariowe already had the greatest debt levels of any soverign state

………………………

The provincial and municipal debt is conveniently excluded, when talking about ‘government’ debt.

We are constantly told that our debt is very low implying national debt only even though it doubled in the last 2-3 years. If course it is a giant lie.

If we combine total debt – both public and private, the picture is very bad, public debt alone is worrisome, the private is sky high and requires very dangerous schemes like CHMC ‘insurance’ in order to keep the ball and lender’s profits rolling.

In addition the loonie is totally overpriced as it is considered linked to the price of oil, while in reality the oil projects in Alberta are stale and most provinces suffer when oil goes up.

Overall the giant debt and the unjustified relatively high currency valuation creates illusion of wealth and prosperity backed by close-to-nothing.

We will see how it will end – hint – very, vey bad.

#68 the Jaguar on 07.06.21 at 11:21 pm

@#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.21 at 9:03 pm
#45 the Jaguar on 07.06.21 at 7:33 pm
Oh, I can’t help myself. Here’s a little plug for my big love, Nigel. From Jan/2021.______

Lots of potential recruits ________

“Rhett Butler : So, you see I shall have to marry you.

Jaguar : I’ve never heard of such bad taste.

Rhett Butler : Would you be more convinced if I fell to my knees?

Jaguar : Turn me loose, you varmint, and get out of here!

Rhett Butler : Forgive me for startling you with the impetuosity of my sentiments, my dear Jaguar, But it cannot have escaped your notice that for some time past the friendship I have felt for you has ripened into a deeper feeling. A feeling more beautiful, more pure, more sacred. Dare I name it? Can it be love?

Jaguar : Get up off your knees! I don’t like your common jokes!

Rhett Butler : This is an honorable proposal of marriage made at what I consider a most opportune moment. I can’t go all my life waiting to catch you between husbands.

Jaguar : You’re coarse, and you’re conceited. And I think this conversation has gone far enough.

Art imitates life as always…………………

#69 Summertime on 07.06.21 at 11:24 pm

#25 Something something on 07.06.21 at 5:46 pm
#13 Honest Realtor

Tripling of RE values in major centres by 2035 is a certainty. But quadrupling is also a serious possibility.

So…$5M for a Toronto detached?

……

It is a pretty much certainty by 2035.

The other certainty is the CPP yearly ‘indexing’ at 1 %.
No wage pressure at this place, so wages rise by the same 1 %.

So retirees with 1 k monthly pension and workers making 50-60 k living in $ 5 M houses.. Why not?

Add to that the deeply negative real rates, zero real rates, inflation of 15-20 % for a decade as a starter and you get the perfect ‘wealthy’ G7 nation’s future.

with 15-20 bucks bread at the store. CPP good for a bread a day while living on the street.

#70 Neo on 07.06.21 at 11:52 pm

Garth,

The current move in the bond market isn’t signalling a recovery whatsoever. 10 year is hitting 1.2% or even 1% in the coming weeks. Not good. Repo market failing again by the way.

#71 Nonplused on 07.07.21 at 12:06 am

A Treatise on Applying Capital Gains taxes to Primary Residences

by Nonplused

It will never happen. Why? Because the problem of windfall capital gains on primary residences is mostly contained to the YVR (Vancouver) and YYZ (Toronto) service areas, both of whom the Liberals must carry to win. Adjusting for inflation, most of the rest of the country is not experiencing run-away house prices excepting unusual reactions to covid which probably won’t last.

Further, capital gains taxes are primarily a federal tax with some percentage going to the provinces depending on the provincial tax rate, but most of the money goes to the federal government as is the case with all income taxes. This means a capital gains tax on primary residences will disproportionately affect Ontario and BC. Roughly 4/5ths of the new tax will end up in the hands of the federal government, with the remainder with the province (depending on the provincial tax rate).

This is important, because once the money is collected by the federal government it goes into federal expenditures, including transfers to the provinces for health care, roads, etc. but most importantly including “transfer payments”.

That’s right. Imposing a federal capital gains tax on primary residences will likely result in more money for Quebec, paid for by residents of Ontario and BC. It simply isn’t ever going to fly.

Instead, the provinces and municipalities themselves will continue with their land transfer taxes, empty house taxes, speculator taxes, foreign investor taxes, and the like, attempting to capture the supposed “windfall” locally. No attempt by the federal government to capture the “windfall” will be tolerated by either BC or Ontario. It is a local phenomena, and the local politicians see it as such.

The federal government would obviously structure the law if implemented to apply equally to all of Canada, but that isn’t going to fool anyone. House prices in YYC (Calgary) haven’t really gone anywhere since 2006 after inflation, and there is no reason to suppose they suddenly will. Saskatchewan and Manitoba? These aren’t the capital gains you are looking for. Quebec and the East Coast? They are showing some life but you aren’t fooling anyone. And there is no indication this strength will continue post covid.

Thus, a capital gains tax on primary residences, especially if adjusted for inflation, will be a tax mostly born by the YVR and YYZ service areas. It simply won’t fly as long as those two areas are important voting precincts.

Q.E.D., we can stop with all the talk of taxing capital gains on primary residences. It simply won’t happen. What taxes do occur will be at the provincial and municipal level, as has been the case to date.

#72 Bob on 07.07.21 at 12:09 am

Some thoughts on the comments that I see here…
Paying debt later will cost much much less than paying it today, because of inflation.
A person who has to pay back to the bank a loan, with a mortgage rate of 1,8% annually, when the inflation is 5%, makes money just by having this loan.
When I talk to some of my older co-workers that tell me they pay 500$ mortgage per month, I am very very surprised… because some of the fresh home buyers are paying 4000$ per month on their mortgages.
And I am sure, in 25 years, a 4000$ mortgage will look like the 500$ one today.

#73 Kaiser on 07.07.21 at 12:15 am

#18 Dogman01

Excellent insights. A portfolio MUST include hard assets during times such as these. Many people realize this, which is driving a stampede into the most easily accessible and understandable asset class: housing. This is the biggest real demand driver of the recent housing boom, and it will not abate.

So it’s government policy that is driving current events. So ask yourself, with a T2 majority incoming, will government policy change? (it wouldn’t change if the “other guys” got in either).

While we can expect the explosive COVID boom to taper off, housing prices will continue to increase as the value of the dollars those homes are priced in continues to decrease (so nobody is really winning… and the people will continue to vote for their own demise).

#74 Russ on 07.07.21 at 12:21 am

Naniamo Community Association on 07.06.21 at 6:04 pm

#24 Sail Away on 07.06.21 at 5:43 pm

#12 Nanaimupo on 07.06.21 at 4:47 pm

We have lots of room to grow if you all want to come. So far I have only seen two cyclists use the multi million dollar bike lane they put from nowhere to nowhere. On the other hand, the new Nanaimo sign is a hit with the kiddos.

———

Maybe, but what do you think about the new Jinglepot/Westwood intersection?

In my opinion, whoever designed that did a fantastic job.
………
Dangerous disaster.. engineers involved should be taken to court.

================================================

Nanaimo has the worst gang o’ idiots looking after traffic concerns that I have ever seen.

The only thing in the tool kit is a STOP sign and bike lane paint. Dumb & dumber. The city could replace half the stop signs with yield signs and reduce GHG emissions many tons/year. Easy.

It goes way back to Mayor Joy Leach, pink slippers, who convinced council to save a few million dollars on the Nanaimo Parkway initial build by putting in traffic lights instead of interchanges! The thought back then was “Let’s stop people in their travels so they turn into the city and buy things.”
This is despite the studies that showed 90% of parkway travel will be inter-city.

Idiots.

Then the worst mayor that Nanaimo ever elected, Gary Korpan (who took the advice of his roomate & mother… being an early millennial) convinced the gang to support a controversial referendum result to build a NPV 150 million dollar elephant called ‘the conference centre”… which no one uses.

Image Nanaimo.

Imagine if the referendum question was, “Do you want to build a 70 Million dollar conference centre or do you want to eliminate the traffice stop lights on the Nanaimo Parkway?”

On a closing note: why do you drive on a parkway but park on a driveway?

Cheers, Russ

#75 Brookfield, an American corporation on 07.07.21 at 1:15 am

#15 DrPlant on 07.06.21 at 5:18 pm

Now that Sagen is now completely owned by Brookfield, an American corporation, I would really like to know why us taxpayers backstop their loans almost as much as we backstop the CMHC loans. No wonder why Sagen will insure pretty much anybody. There’s some serious moral hazard at play here me thinks.

______________________

Never ceases to amaze me how stupid people can be when they try….or even when they don’t!

Since when did Brookfield become “an American corporation”? .

There’s some serious mental hazard at play here me thinks.

*** What is worse is that dozens from the steerage section read this and didn’t pick up on this. Now … watch all the people claim they never read comment #15.

#76 I'm Alright Jack on 07.07.21 at 2:11 am

As much as I appreciate the blog, there are two sides to the dog-loving story.

I have been surrounded by two ahole neighbors with really obnoxious barking dogs for many years. Barking all the time, day and night. Can’t talk to the neighbors – they are complete aholes as well.

I don’t blame the dogs (who are obviously untrained, and are stupid as sticks) but the idiot owners, and their senses of entitlement. And complaining to bylaws in this town is an ongoing joke, akin to hitting yourself repeatedly in the head with a 2×4.

We are moving, not just out of this fning town, but out of this fning province (BC). And, if I had my way, out of this fning really stupid country (not just because of the dogs, but they are contributors).

Thanks – feel better now. Carry on with the dog-loving marathon. I’m sure most dogs are good and worthy of some love (or I hope so). Felix?

#77 Planetgoofy on 07.07.21 at 2:18 am

#18 Dogman01 on 07.06.21 at 5:20 pm
————————————-
Nailed it….that’s what I have pounded into my kid.
At 27 with a kid on the way he’s see the light but its to late for him. They cant afford nothing on a wage.
Lucky I was in early and bought lots of prime cash flow commercial RE…unaffected by Covid also. So he’s kind of covered.
Cheers

#78 Ustabe on 07.07.21 at 2:50 am

#66 Nonplused on 07.06.21 at 11:10 pm

#21 Ustabe on 07.06.21 at 5:32 pm
A few carryover thoughts from yesterday…

On what basis would you tax churches without say also taxing the Scouts and say youth sports? It is a non-profit and without profit there is nothing to tax. The million dollar a year pastors at the mega churches are another matter, but they do pay income tax. So do the priests at the Catholic churches but their income is usually quite modest

If you think the Church, be it Anglican, Catholic, Mormon or whatever is non profit then you are even further from reality than I thought.

I know as fact that the Anglican Church in Canada owns miles of real estate, malls, commercial property and even a few actual businesses. I was a volunteer with AYM, Anglican Youth Movement, in the mid 70’s. We did stuff for all the new hippies that were hitchhiking across Canada. Coffee houses in the basement of various church halls. Until a new Diocese bishop came along and killed it all we had safe places across western Canada for them to grab some day old bakery, maybe some soup and a coffee. Relax for a few, maybe phone home, whatever.

I saw the budgets, had to lever money from them, but these coffee houses were a cost, not a money maker so new bishop, cancel them, screw the kids we were helping. Like Jesus would have wanted.

finally, do you have any idea what the pay scale is for an Anglican priest once she or he gets into a stable congregation? Its the congregation that sets pay, you don’t get paid by the mother ship until you hit parish/deanery levels. Once you hit mother ship levels of pay they were in the high 30-40 range in the 1970’s. 1975 income was bumping up against $10,000. So pretty good pay. Before you fact check this make certain you are not viewing a site that converts 1970’s dollars into inflation adjusted dollars or 1995 dollars or whatever. Not sure why the need to do that, present figures in as difficult way to compare one to the other as possible. Current clergy salaries range from in and around $60,000 to in and around $100,000. Depends on time in, education, size of congregation/parish, etc. That doesn’t include any extra pay for out of scope work, tips from folks you serve at a wedding or burial, etc.

And…I’m not taking about Scouts or youth sports Are you wanting to talk about the Scouts $850 million settlement with victims of sexual abuse while under the care of Scout leaders?

Because you brought it up, eh?

#79 Bezengy on 07.07.21 at 6:57 am

#47 Sandy Attenborough on 07.06.21 at 7:44 pm
Toronto is talking about raising the land transfer tax and Mississauga is talking about implementing a land transfer tax. Real estate is going to get whacked.

————————————————–

Are the kids getting screwed over? Let’s examine this house listing in Toronto selling for 1.5 million, and you tell me.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23379180/22-sparrow-ave-toronto-yorkdale-glen-park

Taxes are presently $5k per annum, half of what they should actually be paying according to Toronto’s property tax calculator. So if a young couple wants to buy it, they will pay over $50k land transfer tax, the equivalent of ten years of property tax just to buy it. The place will then be re-assessed for 1.5 million and they will now be paying $10k per annum, double what the present owners are paying. How on earth can this be considered fair? The kids are right, the system is rigged, and not in their favor. Should taxes be raised in Toronto rather than sticking it to the kids?, of course, but that certainly won’t get you elected, better off to let the kids take the hit I guess.

#80 Phylis on 07.07.21 at 7:36 am

#55 Damifino on 07.06.21 at 9:06 pm
#39 Quintilian

The NDP will not dare force an election, and a non confidence vote is the only way an election can be triggered.
——————————–

Really? In theory, at least, can’t the prime minister go to the governor general claiming to have lost the confidence of the house (in his opinion) and ask for parliament to be dissolved?

Wouldn’t that trigger an election without an actual non-confidence vote taking place? Just wondering.

Of course. And he will. Dippers and Tories have nothing to say about it. – Garth
Xxxxx
And could a strong GG just say no?

She just got the job and owes at all to T2. What do you think? – Garth

#81 the Jaguar on 07.07.21 at 7:43 am

Great article in this mornings NP by Eric Nuttall about the end of the Shale Oil Era, including this sombre thought:

” The world is heading towards an oil supply crisis and ironically U.S. shale played a key role in creating it … the myth of supposed oil shale abundance will in reality end in oil scarcity.”

Gee whiz. Just when everyone has got accustomed to the Amazon truck dropping off all their groceries and amusements and when some who moved away from the office will face long commutes if ordered back.
Oil=GDP.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:08 am

@#63 Druglyfe

Well.
Driving around with $4 million in Drugs and $320,000 in cash……
I’d say they were off to the bank to pay down the mortgage and load up the Safety Deposit Box.

#83 Dharma Bum on 07.07.21 at 8:20 am

#23 Inflation

Peak house is over, now it’s just a matter of how low and how fast.
—————————————————————————–

It’s over for now. Because it is a seasonal phenomenon. House prices stabilize in late June, and drop in July and August. Then things pick up again in September and October, restabilize in November, go dormant in December, hibernate in January through March, start stirring in April, then re peak in May and June.

Thinking that house prices will drop by any meaningful amount to make them even remotely affordable is a fallacy. A pipe dream. Wishful thinking. Santa Claus and unicorns.

Inflation will get worse in the coming years (if only as a means to soften the blow of debt repayment at all levels – especially by hopelessly indebted governments) and houses will be part of that inflation.

There may be somewhat of a plateau for a while, but what consolation is that to anyone who thinks that they want to get into the market? It’s the highest it’s ever been, and while a dip here and there is possible, it’s only going to get higher in the years to come.

So, to those that are not property owners but wish to become property owners, don’t get your hopes up. It doesn’t look good either way. Prepare to mortgage yourself to the stratosphere for life.

#84 Steve French on 07.07.21 at 8:26 am

I sure hope those fire investigators looking into the cause of the Lytton BC fire, that destroyed a town and led to the deaths of 2 people, report that the blaze was the result of an accidental spark from a passing train.

As opposed to.. umm.. well…say…something like a far left activist lighting a match inside St. Ann’s parish in the Lytton town centre.

The latter scenario would look pretty bad for all those Canadians who cheered on the church fires, with tweets supporting vigilante hooliganism… “burn it all down” etc.

Or those who voiced “understanding” of why certain unhappy and disaffected individuals might have wanted to tip over historical statues and start fires in places of religious worship (you know, otherwise known as a hate crime).

Yes, that would be a bad look look, to have supported that sort of terrible outcome, that destroyed a town and in which 2 Canadians died.

A very bad look indeed.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:33 am

A big trial has started.
A brazen murder, in a restaurant in the downtown core of Vancouver.
In front of dozens of people and security cameras.

Its taken 9.5 YEARS for the police and crown to bring this case forward.

https://theprovince.com/news/crime/bartender-heard-big-bang-at-scene-of-wall-centre-shooting

I’d say the accused have better than a 50/50 chance of walking.

#86 Seanner on 07.07.21 at 8:49 am

Gyms are still closed though!

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:53 am

Uh oh.
The “Wokesters” had decided Lobsters feel pain when they’re cooked.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/canadian-fishers-keep-eye-on-u-k-as-activists-raise-lobster-concerns-1.6092306

Next up.
Flowers feel pain when they’re picked.

In the immortal words of Col. Kurtz as he lay dying…
“The horror,….. the…. horror.”

#88 Quintilian on 07.07.21 at 9:50 am

#55 Damifino
“Wouldn’t that trigger an election without an actual non-confidence vote taking place? Just wondering.”

The PM can ask the GG for the dissolution of parliament, but the governor general has the power, which flows from the constitution, to accept or reject the PM’s request.

The PM must give a compelling argument why he can no longer govern.

I say the request would be rejected until Justin Trudeau loses a confidence vote in the house.

#89 Don Guillermo on 07.07.21 at 9:55 am

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:53 am
Uh oh.
The “Wokesters” had decided Lobsters feel pain when they’re cooked.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/canadian-fishers-keep-eye-on-u-k-as-activists-raise-lobster-concerns-1.6092306

Next up.
Flowers feel pain when they’re picked.

In the immortal words of Col. Kurtz as he lay dying…
“The horror,….. the…. horror.”
*************************************
Oh, oh, the Brits are out woking Canada.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9763993/Ministers-ban-lobsters-boiled-alive.html

#90 V lover on 07.07.21 at 10:15 am

Finally a Vizsla!

#91 Sail Away on 07.07.21 at 10:35 am

#75 Brookfield, an American corporation on 07.07.21 at 1:15 am

———-

It would be tough to classify Brookfield as Canadian. They have far larger operations in the US than here. Maybe an international company?

In any case, I am a happy holder of a number of their offerings and preferred shares. Also did very well on Genworth when Brookfield bought them out and renamed as Sagen.

The Sagen preferred shares seem fully priced, but the 7.26% yield entices.

#92 Cto on 07.07.21 at 10:36 am

Anybody have any advice for buying real estate in America?
Any tax pitfalls? Or ownership issues?
What about Costa Rica?

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.21 at 10:40 am

#86 Seanner on 07.07.21 at 8:49 am
Gyms are still closed though!
—————————
Come to BC.
Everything is open.
That’s why RE is more expensive here.

#94 DON on 07.07.21 at 11:06 am

#83 Dharma Bum on 07.07.21 at 8:20 am
#23 Inflation

Peak house is over, now it’s just a matter of how low and how fast.
—————————————————————————–

It’s over for now. Because it is a seasonal phenomenon. House prices stabilize in late June, and drop in July and August. Then things pick up again in September and October, restabilize in November, go dormant in December, hibernate in January through March, start stirring in April, then re peak in May and June.

Thinking that house prices will drop by any meaningful amount to make them even remotely affordable is a fallacy. A pipe dream. Wishful thinking. Santa Claus and unicorns.

Inflation will get worse in the coming years (if only as a means to soften the blow of debt repayment at all levels – especially by hopelessly indebted governments) and houses will be part of that inflation.

There may be somewhat of a plateau for a while, but what consolation is that to anyone who thinks that they want to get into the market? It’s the highest it’s ever been, and while a dip here and there is possible, it’s only going to get higher in the years to come.

So, to those that are not property owners but wish to become property owners, don’t get your hopes up. It doesn’t look good either way. Prepare to mortgage yourself to the stratosphere for life.

******????,,

House prices fell when the US bubble popped and Ireland and Spain. Forget peak house how about peak debt. Recency bias ….watch out gor the boomerang.

#95 Sara on 07.07.21 at 11:12 am

@CEF,

Regarding “social worker Sara” and “sociologist Sara”, if you think you are disparaging me, you would be incorrect.

I find it sad that you appear to have at least average intelligence, yet are so myopic in many of your viewpoints.

#96 DON on 07.07.21 at 11:15 am

#74 Russ on Nanaimo lights vs interchange…

Agreed…now the lights create rush hour traffic, no sense of future planning.

#97 Penny Henny on 07.07.21 at 11:23 am

Meanwhile in Niagara region.

Year over Year

Sales up 13.1%
House Price index up 39.8%
Day on market down 56.8%
Number of new listings up 4.1%

Month over month

Sales down 6.1%%
House Price index up 1.1%
Day on market down 31.8%
Number of new listings down 3.8%

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/files/June%202021%20-%20Media%20Release%20%26%20Stats%20%28Complete%29%20%281%29.pdf

#98 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.07.21 at 11:36 am

A message to those who predict Boom, and those who predict Gloom:

Not so fast. Real estate, like the stock market, has less and less to do with the fundamentals, and more to do with the bets the buyers and sellers are placing on future valuations.

It is summer, we haven’t opened up. Toronto is still running at 30% of capacity. Let’s wait for September’s figures which come out in early October.

While 99% of realtors make bold predictions with the enthusiasm and certainty of a Penny Stock promoter, I can’t go there at this time. There are too many moving parts to this market.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 11:40 am

@#95 Sara
” I find it sad that you appear to have at least average intelligence, yet are so myopic in many of your viewpoints.”

+++

It used to be “extreme intelligence with a dabbling of humility”, alas the fumes have wreaked their cumulative damage.

#100 Sail Away on 07.07.21 at 12:05 pm

#92 Cto on 07.07.21 at 10:36 am

Anybody have any advice for buying real estate in America?
Any tax pitfalls? Or ownership issues?
What about Costa Rica?

——–

No big issues for Canadians personally owning US property. Reasonable taxation plus also cap gains payable to Canada.

My US properties are owned through a US corp, so they fall purely under US corp law.

https://nesbittburns.bmo.com/getimage.asp?content_id=63987

#101 Sail Away on 07.07.21 at 12:13 pm

#95 Sara on 07.07.21 at 11:12 am

@CEF,

Regarding “social worker Sara” and “sociologist Sara”, if you think you are disparaging me, you would be incorrect.

I find it sad that you appear to have at least average intelligence, yet are so myopic in many of your viewpoints.

——–

I personally prefer ‘internet psychiatrist Sara’. And yes, that is disparagement, although you fit well with the other internet psychiatrists on this blog, including Unstable and Maroon, among others.

#102 Cto on 07.07.21 at 12:18 pm

#42 Concerned Citizen
“By design”
I hear you and feel your pain brother…
It would be nice to be naive,.but,…after 13 years though,, it is becoming clearer and clearer what seems undeniable, and that is the financial elites were just waiting for the next crisis to slash rates back to “0”.
Too much $$$ was made after the invention of 0 rates and QE.
This also filled the class gap in the west, created by globalization, ( another experiment.)..
Make debt the new currency for the middle and lower classes to keep the middle class illusion alive. This of course will turn western counties back into developing countries, especially Canada. Our children will pay the ultimate price. Sad…

#103 Wrk.dover on 07.07.21 at 12:24 pm

#89 Don Guillermo on 07.07.21 at 9:55 am
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:53 am
Uh oh.
The “Wokesters” had decided Lobsters feel pain when they’re cooked.

________________________

What about drinking shots from their claws after the meat is removed, is that O.K.? Or an insult?

#104 Don Guillermo on 07.07.21 at 12:46 pm

#103 Wrk.dover on 07.07.21 at 12:24 pm
#89 Don Guillermo on 07.07.21 at 9:55 am
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 8:53 am
Uh oh.
The “Wokesters” had decided Lobsters feel pain when they’re cooked.

________________________

What about drinking shots from their claws after the meat is removed, is that O.K.? Or an insult?
********************************

Wokes for me ;< )

#105 earthboundmisfit on 07.07.21 at 12:52 pm

Binbrook …. where SFHs have room for four cars and the owners still park on the street, so the kids can play in the driveway. I’ve lost track of the number of kids I’ve nearly hit when they’ve run out onto road from behind Dad’s F150 or Mom’s Land Rover.

#106 Mean Costa Rica Guy on 07.07.21 at 12:52 pm

#92 CTO

Advice for buying RE in Costa Rica? Yes, don’t even think about it.

Let’s start with the myth that CR laws are like Canada’s and protect property owners. lol.

Property theft in CR is so widespread (due to their absurd and corrupt legal system that allows the buyer of stolen property to keep it ‘because they didn’t know it was stolen’) that the government has an automatic warning system set up on their property registry so that you get an email warning when someone is trying to change the title on your property to their crooked lawyer’s name. You have about 2 weeks to try and stop it.

As a foreignor, you have next to no legal rights, and the lawyer stealing your property will likely be related to the judge ruling on the case, or to the politician who is the ‘innocent’ third party buyer of the stolen property.

Then there are the squatters rights, the lack of water, the horrible building standards, the insane bureaucracy and I could go on and on.

Just rent. And that goes for most foreign countries, not just CR.

The USA is a different story, and I would consider buying there myself, but have not looked into all the ramifications yet.

#107 Mean Costa Rica guy on 07.07.21 at 1:01 pm

In case anyone thinks my portrayal of property theft in CR is exaggerated: https://www.welovecostarica.com/costa-rica-real-estate-fraud-help-they-stole-my-property/

Many more stories, just google it: https://insightcrime.org/news/real-estate-fraud-costa-rica/

#108 Love_The_Cottage on 07.07.21 at 1:14 pm

I got my haircut in the GTA today at a small private place I’ve been going to for over 20 years. The barbers were so upset at Ford it was unsettling. Appreciated that T2 helped them survive when they couldn’t work. These are people who have voted Conservative for years. Not next year.

Meanwhile Ford still hasn’t provided clarity about what percentage of tickets can be sold to a concert in stage 3 so venues can’t book bands. There has been a lack of clarity and logic throughout the entire process.

Back to the regular blog posts about how T2 is ruining the entire world…

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.21 at 1:19 pm

@#103 wrk.dvr
“What about drinking shots from their claws after the meat is removed, is that O.K.? Or an insult?”

+++

Geez I dunno.
Ive help on a family Lobster boat fishing for a few months over the years.
Never slorped a shot of booze from a claw shell.
Waddya call THAT shot?
A Newfie pinch?

#110 Prince Polo on 07.07.21 at 1:30 pm

And could a strong GG just say no?
She just got the job and owes at all to T2. What do you think? – Garth

A strong GG would be JWR. Unfortunately, our dear Photo-op Minister is too weak ego’d to allow strong dissenting views within “his” party. He prefers to bully them into silence.

#111 Sara on 07.07.21 at 1:52 pm

#101 SailAway

“…I personally prefer ‘internet psychiatrist Sara’. ”

Thanks, but you do make it rather easy to figure you out.

#112 Shirl Clarts on 07.07.21 at 1:57 pm

#31 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:11 pm
I walked into the supermarket today here in BC. I held up a mask and asked the cashier if we needed these? She said you can wear one for your safety. “Then they are optional?” “‘Yes.”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
So after 15 months of wearing a mask, you walked into a store not wearing one, then asked if you still need to wear it?

Yes. Public Health measures are for idiots like you.

#113 TheDood on 07.07.21 at 1:59 pm

#9 No Canadian Stanley Cup Winner in neraly 3 decades on 07.06.21 at 4:41 pm
Read an article on CBC News about how Canadian hockey talent is going down south to play because taxes are lower, real estate is cheaper and way way better and…well…weather of course.

The point was – why would you stay and play for a Canadian team – you dummy! EXACTLY!

Now, dummy fans on the other hand – they will pay for the real estate and overpriced hockey tickets. We got them by the pucks!
________________________________________

Put yourself in a young millionaire athlete’s shoes and tell me you wouldn’t rather ply your trade in Florida, Arizona, California, New York, etc., rather than Wpg, Edm, Cgy, Ott…….

It’s such an easy decision. Of course the small market fans don’t understand this, they believe Canadian hockey talent is lined up down the street to sign with their team, but this is just not the case. 28 years and counting since a Cdn team won..

This is also the case with our educated youth, the brightest and best don’t stay here, they go where the opportunities and money are – south of the border.

#114 Cto on 07.07.21 at 2:01 pm

Thanks for the info
Mean CR guy

#115 NSNG on 07.07.21 at 2:05 pm

#60 SW on 07.06.21 at 10:25 pm

#31 NSNG on 07.06.21 at 6:11 pm
“I walked into the supermarket today…(I’m too special to wear a mask)…People who fear dying so badly that they will wrap a lie around their face surely are not able to live.
BTW, guys, girls look at you differently when you project brave. It could be the icebreaker you need.”

Nah. The reason they look at you funny is because your mask would be there is to protect them and you’re not wearing one.

I bet you say you’d wear a condom too.

Because you were there, weren’t you, you scared little sheep. Willful ignorance is not bliss.

And no, I’m not into practicing extramarital sex. Keep up.

#116 IHCTD9 on 07.07.21 at 2:26 pm

#46 Lee on 07.06.21 at 7:33 pm
#13 Honest Realtor,

Democrat and Liberal governments are moving towards multi-unit residential properties in rural areas. It’s all Biden talks about. Trudeau will soon follow. Which Means many immigrants will be redirected to smaller towns.
— –

Won’t need the Multi-Units, immigrants bailing to the hinterland has been ongoing for 5 years+, at least in my area. More come every year of all stripes. The fabulous cost of RE in the GTA has risen to such an extent, that established immigrants with means – who have been in Canada for a while – are willing to shoulder some risk, and endure some discomfort to escape it.

That’s the only good thing we can tag to the urban RE insanity, it has pushed folks hard enough to make an exit from national/ethnic enclaves where the quality of life for non-ultra- rich folks has seriously degraded. I can already see that these “early adopters” will be well rewarded for their risk taking.

I expect now that the ice has been broken, this will be a permanent flow of the established out of metros, and into rural areas.

#117 Ustabe on 07.07.21 at 2:34 pm

#111 Sara on 07.07.21 at 1:52 pm

#101 SailAway

“…I personally prefer ‘internet psychiatrist Sara’. ”

Thanks, but you do make it rather easy to figure you out

Snort!

Looks like after participating in the successful running off of Faron a few of the pack have decided that you will be the next target. Sort of like a middle school clique the losers of the group will poke at you until the leader weighs in.

If Garth tolerates this one as he did the Faron debacle I eagerly await the destruction you will render onto these emotionally bereft boys. Socially immature, exhibiting all the micro aggression of the chronically narcissistic personality disorder afflicted.

Of course, do not let any of this disabuse you of the notion that conservatism in Canada isn’t a big tent, welcoming political movement that enjoys varied opinions and values everyone, especially women and minorities, after all we will be forming the next government and you know why? Because Trudeau is bad that’s why.

#118 IHCTD9 on 07.07.21 at 3:37 pm

#66 Nonplused on 07.06.21 at 11:10 pm

————————————-

It is a non-profit and without profit there is nothing to tax.
——

This is my experience as well. Never heard of a Church making profit. About all you could do is remove the charitable organization status of the Church, but that just means the churchgoers pay the tax.

No matter though, the idea of Ottawa extracting revenue from every Church, Synagogue, Mandir, Mosque, etc in the country is 100% political suicide.

#119 IHCTD9 on 07.07.21 at 4:29 pm

#117 Ustabe on 07.07.21 at 2:34 pm

Of course, do not let any of this disabuse you of the notion that conservatism in Canada isn’t a big tent…

after all we will be forming the next government and you know why? Because Trudeau is bad that’s why.
—————

I wish I could be as confident, the Cons have a ways to go in becoming Cons again. They’ll eventually get elected, but only when it becomes apparent to the majority the damage Trudeau has done. By then, it won’t matter who’s running the show.

#120 Sara on 07.07.21 at 4:31 pm

#117 Ustabe

“Looks like after participating in the successful running off of Faron a few of the pack have decided that you will be the next target. ”

Been there done that pre-Faron. I and SA (and his yappy lapdog CEF) go way back. Not worried about being a target. In some ways I enjoy standing up to bullies.

#121 Tudval on 07.07.21 at 8:21 pm

Can’t make any sense of the empty home tax when there’s record vacancies in the condo market. Except this very cynical scenario: say you have thousand of homeless and pretty soon, once borders open, many thousands more. The government may pay them a rental unit (happened before), but can’t afford the going rate of, say, $1600 a month. They will pay only $800 a month. No willing landlords at that price? Perhaps they will think again when they get hit with a $800 a month empty home tax bill. I wouldn’t want to own or live in a condo with high vacancy rate right now.