Over the top

It’s almost half-past 2021, so let’s review.

First, your portfolio. If it’s B&D©, carefully-weighted and globally-exposed you should be up so far this year by high single-digits. Completely ignore the cowboys, swaggering stock jockeys and anon Internet braggarts who come here to make you feel inadequate. Investing isn’t a race or a contest. It’s not about scoring a 15% return. Instead it’s a path of steady, predictable, low-vol returns which will get you to the goals that matter. Retirement. A house. Educating your kid. Starting a business. Or, in the case of many in the steerage section, a personality transplant.

Some people worry we’re in an Everything Bubble. Stock markets are at record highs, they say, so surely it cannot last. Were it not for central bank money-printing, profligate politicians and the distorting effects of the pandemic, there’d be a reckoning. And it’s coming, anyway, they yell. This is the bread-&-butter of doomer bears like Toronto’s David Rosenberg, the crusty Harry Dent or debunked prophets like Gerald Celeste. These guys are just, well, nuts. Consistent, but nuts…

The reality is this: after 16 months of pandemic, the economy is reopening with a vengeance. GDP growth of 6% is just the start. Romping bank profits are but an inkling of what’s to come. Unemployment levels will sink to 2019 levels or below. Oil could be on its way to a hundred bucks a barrel. The S&P 500 is seeing 90% of member companies advancing at the same time. Bay Street has jumped 15% this year. Estimates are for corporate bottom lines to swell between 40% and 50% over year-ago levels.

Last year delivered an historic, global, holy-crap recession of Biblical proportions as we battled the slimy little pathogen from Hell. Governments spent $20 trillion in response. Hundreds of millions of people lost their work. But we got over it. Vaccines were developed at record speed and now 70% of Canadians have been jabbed. Large parts of the economy went online and flourished. Technology has allowed us to break back into the sunlight.

There is now record demand for cars, houses, boats, RVs and anything you can nail, saw or glue. That demand is about to extend to travel, tourism, entertainment and personal services as new cases of Covid crash 80%. There is a mountain of personal savings in the US and Canada being unleashed. Plus the wealth effect from a real estate boom nobody expected a pandemic could produce. Consumer spending in the next year will be epic.

Meanwhile history tells us that periods of expansion following severe contractions are not short. They average about six years. If we’re just starting on this path that suggests it’ll be later in the decade before the next correction arrives. Yes. The Roaring Twenties. If you’ve been sitting in cash, holding David Rosenberg’s paw and trembling, prepare to see a lot of positivity pass you by.

What could go wrong?

Lots, of course. For sure we’ll have more inflation so prices of everything will stay elevated, even when the supply chain gets fixed.  And interest rates will not stay where they are, despite what everybody thinks. The average tightening cycle for the Fed is a little over 800 days and involves about 10 rate increases. This will begin in the next year or so, and our CB will follow. Higher rates have proven in the past not to affect stock markets much, but they can kick real estate where it hurts.

But wait. What if Covid comes back? The Delta version?

Could happen, but more quarantines, lockdowns and restrictions are unlikely to be the response. Besides, by the autumn 75% of North Americans will be fully dosed so even a Fourth Wave would have far less impact on the health care system. In short, it’s over.

How about debt?

Yup, tons of it around. Higher rates will make it more costly to service. But by far the greatest debt is in the hands of governments, which have tools to deal with it. Like printing money (more inflation, more rate hikes). Or tax increases – look at the Biden agenda, for example. And soon (after the election, if he wins) you’ll see what T2 has in store.

So more inflation, more interest, more tax, but this will be balanced by rampant growth, rising financial markets, more jobs and profits. Suddenly the bubble in equities looks not so frothy at all. “This is the greatest re-opening trade EVER,” says stock veteran Ed Pennock.

There’s more money available than ever before. Should we invest in Growth or Value? The answer is YES. The landscape has changed. Shortages have transferred power to the workers. Between stimulus payments and the savings from work from home, personal balance sheets look better than we can ever recall. Prices are up but so are wages. Housing costs are up. A negative, yes. However, there’s also the “Wealth Effect” of housing prices. We have changed the basic way we consume goods and services. Think Amazon, Etsy and Shopify. In its totality, we think this is a perfect setup for the “Roaring Twenties”.

Wow. But nothing’s perfect, of course. China could disrupt trade. Biden could keel over. Jag could become prime minister. The virus could trick us. The lesson of the pandemic is that bad things can happen really fast.

And, yes, that’s exactly why you should be B&D©. It’s like having four-season tires. Or marrying a plumber. You can never be too sure.

About the picture: “Long time reader since the 90’s and appreciate all the guidance over the years,” writes Marlene. “Here is a photograph of our sweet girl Daisy.   15 year old Yorkshire Terrier.  We love her more each day.”

111 comments ↓

#1 Robitussin on 06.23.21 at 1:30 pm

It’s just a bad cold now Garth!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/why-covid-19-may-now-feel-like-a-bad-cold-with-headache-runny-nose-among-most-reported-symptoms-1.6069831

#2 TheDood on 06.23.21 at 1:30 pm

This kind of messaging is what we need to hear more often. The constant MSM ‘bad news’ is so tiring and old.

For those of us that are working, have a family, a roof over your head, 3 square, and a B&D, life is great! Let’s all remember there will always be the less fortunate, extend a helping hand when you can.

#3 Squirrel on 06.23.21 at 1:39 pm

Savings rate SUCKED before SARS-Cov2 hit and spanked many.

Those many likely realize they had little saved, and now saw the consequences of that for real. Will there be another CERB in the future? Will it be so quick, generous and forgiving of fraud?

And so on this point of big savings spending being unleashed…I wonder. I think many will look at their finances and perhaps realize that they cannot spend that much, and may just keep the savings they have for that rainy day.

Because it will come.

After all…we had SARS-Cov1, SARS-Cov2, any doubt SARS-Cov3 will come?

Also, are we now going to see a lot of reporting on growth over Y-1 numbers now to try to make us believe the growth is amazing?

#4 Damifino on 06.23.21 at 1:45 pm

Jag could become prime minister.
——————————-

This concept brings tears to my eyes. And not ones of happiness. Thanks for helping me imagine a future even worse than a T2 majority.

#5 Keith on 06.23.21 at 1:47 pm

@#99 Sail Away June 22

Government couldn’t keep away

https://www.historynet.com/ben-franklins-gift-keeps-giving.htm

#6 jerry w on 06.23.21 at 1:53 pm

I get that there are doomers out there like Rosenberg, etc., but they seem to make some good points such as: a big chunk of this growth came from government handouts that will end with unemployment still high. People went on a durable goods spending spree during lockdown and don’t need more goods. The service sector will revive but it is a small part of the GDP, and you can’t get 10 more haircuts or eat out 10X more to make up for before. Copper, lumber, etc., going down, and along with productivity gains (esp from IT investment during pandemic) and an aging population, deflation is more likely after government handouts end than inflation. I’m not saying I buy it all, but how do you respond to that? Or is it just a matter of which perspective a person takes? Because it does make a difference if you were sitting in cash and have a large amount to invest now.

#7 My Body My Choice on 06.23.21 at 1:55 pm

Everything Garth says makes sense. He’s sane, rational, logical. I wish he was PM of Canada.

Problem is, we don’t live in a sane, rational world anymore. We live in upside down clown world. There will always be new variants and new waves after Delta … Epsilon, Eta, Theta, Beta … The CCP is still operating their biolab, so if they’re not sanctioned for the COVID mess, what’s preventing COVID-21/22/23?

Our leaders and health ministers have proven that they are closet tyrants. Now they’re out of the closet. Power can be addictive. A virus was used to strip us of our civil liberties. Now there’s talk of Climate Lockdowns. If they amp up the climate crisis the same way they amped up the COVID crisis, we could all be back in lockdown.

My prediction is: our fearless leaders are giving us the summer off. They know we’re fed up and pissed off. But come fall, the Delta variant will spike, called the 4th wave, or 3rd? I’ve lost track. Then a dark winter of authoritarian dictatorship based on $cience.

#8 Summertime on 06.23.21 at 1:56 pm

David Rosenberg is a top economist, former Chief North American Economist for Merry Lynch, 10 years at the top of Gluskin Sheff and most importantly someone I know personally.

Calling him nuts is quite a bold statement.

So, just change that to ‘wrong.’ – Garth

#9 mark on 06.23.21 at 2:00 pm

Right on!

#10 Summertime on 06.23.21 at 2:07 pm

So, just change that to ‘wrong.’ – Garth

fine.

But what if inflation runs out of hand as there is every indication for it and the Fed has to taper and increase rates drastically i.e. by 3-4 %? That is not very unlikely scenario considering the latest reading of 5 % official CPI which means much higher unofficial inflation, what will happen to markets then, keep roaring?

Some specific inflation protection hedges seems quite reasonable to me.

Exactly what the recommended portfolio provides. (It sure isn’t gold or housing in a rising rate environment.) – Garth

#11 Debt Leppard on 06.23.21 at 2:07 pm

#6 jerry w

I think there is logic to those points you write about jerry. I think Garth has blogged about the fact that deflation is on the horizon and a threat.

I think the biggest point for me is:
WE ARE DEBT PIGGIES!

2008 GFC happened because of debt. Yeah, they were loose with the credit, but mainly because the wanted people to buy crap.

About 10 years later we have this little Covid doozie coincidentally. Debt kept piling on over past decade. During growth we didn’t deleverage and get ready and in the black. Emergency rates were kept on the whole decade to keep us borrowing and spending.

So here we are – government needed to spend 6X more in Canada than during GFC. As Garth notes – 20 TRILLION world wide!

They bailed it out. ALL DEBT! Now what? As Garth notes, likely buys us some time, but the game is being upped here. What will the next bailout have to look like? 200 TRILLION I guess.

You think we pay off all this debt before the next reckoning? You think we’ll get ready? It will be all pixies and unicorns? Something has to give. I still haven’t heard anyone say anything about ALL THIS DEBT!

#12 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:09 pm

70%, 2 dose, using last few days of Cdn vax rates:

Mid-August.

——

Delta UK study last week, about 800 patients:

80 hospitalized, 2 dose vax’d
530 hospitalized, 0 dose vax’d
200 or so 1 dose vax’d

No deaths reported.

So even if 2 dose vax’d the probability is 10% you will end up in hospital, 25% probability if 1 dose vax’d, if you get Delta.

Good news when you consider vax’s like Pfizer, Moderna, AZ phase trials last year with Covid and on none of the variants.

——

So far the variant of concern mutation rate every 10-15 days holding.

New Delta in town, being called:

Delta Plus

More contagious. Delta + S. Africa variant “mutation thingy”. 1 case in Canada. Very little news about it for now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57564560
https://globalnews.ca/news/7973236/covid-delta-variant-mutation-k417n/

Expect another new VOC mutation by 2nd week of July +/- a few days.

#13 Millennial 1%er on 06.23.21 at 2:10 pm

trudeau.. please… no more taxes

#14 kubie on 06.23.21 at 2:19 pm

What is a smart move right now for those sitting on down payments in cash? With no rush to buy. TFSA is full, RRSP fully contributed.

#15 Bubble Boy on 06.23.21 at 2:24 pm

So just to recap:

Dot Com Bubble – 5 trillion in stock market cap lost

GFC – how many trillion is the final bill on that one?

Covid – 20 trillion in DEBT added by governments

NEXT ONE (2026) – how many trillion?

Also, a friend of mine put out a 1st wave 80s synth pop inspired album a while back.

Bubble Boy was the title track! Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0Sl7v-dQRQ

#16 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:28 pm

I agree Garth, economy and market will go nuts for the balance of the year.

Pent up demand. People frolicking in the joy of resuming their lives again.

Only danger I see is if a new evil VOC comes along. But even Delta, way more powerful than the original Covid, doing very little damage because of vaxing.

——-

Bring on Pimp Coats, The Charleston, Metropolis and spinning rattle ratchets at college football games

…but cancel Al Jolson?

#17 Don Guillermo on 06.23.21 at 2:34 pm

#2 TheDood on 06.23.21 at 1:30 pm
This kind of messaging is what we need to hear more often. The constant MSM ‘bad news’ is so tiring and old.

For those of us that are working, have a family, a roof over your head, 3 square, and a B&D, life is great! Let’s all remember there will always be the less fortunate, extend a helping hand when you can.
**************************************
You are absolutely correct. Was listening to a caller on talk radio yesterday. He said he spent the past few days driving through the US and crossed into Canada at Coutts, AB. His comment was about listening to the radio while driving. He said in the US radio news was mostly normal with some slight mentioning of Covid. Once he crossed into Canada and tuned into local radio it was Covid, covid, covid and endless covid. I decided to compare CTV, CBC, Fox and CNN home pages. Similar story. No wonder Canadians seem more frightened than our southern neighbors.

#18 cramar on 06.23.21 at 2:44 pm

Hundred bucks a barrel for oil!? Can you imagine what the price of gasoline will be then? What will that do for consumer inflation? Put a damper on travel because of high fuel costs? Will it bring a screaming halt to truck and large SUV sales? Spur consumers to buy electric? A lot of unknowns here that could possibly work against a roaring ’20s scenario.

And now the BBC is raising concern of a worse “Delta Plus” variant found in regions of India. With every mutation the fear is that it will prevail over all that vaccination effort. That would be the real nightmare!

#19 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 2:44 pm

#117 oh the irony on 06.23.21 at 12:44 pm
Sorry for the delay in replying but I am still LMAO at some guy who calls himself Soggy Shorts calling me a coward for not using my name lol

Taking things a little too seriously there Mr. Shorts
**************
So to be clear, you’re too embarrassed by your own stupidity to use your regular screen name?
Probably a good call.

#20 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:55 pm

Why am I still wearing a mask in Italia?

June 28th I won’t have to by Gov Italia decree today*.

YES!

In my Region of FVG 0 cases, ICU, hospitalized and deaths.

951 new cases in all of Italia today. 0.48% test positivity rate. 30 deaths.

1% of new cases Delta variant.

Ferragosto here I come.

————–

*Super Mario Draghi promised by July no masks. He delivered. A first for Italia.

…’gotta go watch Portugal vs. France. Cliffhanger who makes it thru in Group F.

#21 Jenna on 06.23.21 at 3:05 pm

The Delta strain effects small children under the age of 12 years. No tested vaccine at this point in time.

I get it…economics is not impacted by children…they are unemployed.

#22 VGRO and chill on 06.23.21 at 3:09 pm

6% GDP growth is a YoY figure, is it not? Is 6% higher compared to the dismal depths of 12 months ago misleading?

“I gained 10 lbs” – my friend after losing 20??

#23 Sue on 06.23.21 at 3:10 pm

Had an interesting call with the green bank regarding the interpipline potential takeover by brookfield. I asked them to clarify the 3 options to me, which he was unable to. He just read what info i had in front of me. Then i asked him what would happen when the offer expires he told my shares would ‘expire and would be worthless’. Then called representative of brookfield next. They were more informative but were also very interested in how many shares i owned which i didnt answer. Now i have a call in to ipl im hoping they do not want this takeover and will encourage people to hold on. Has anyone any experience with this, ive had these shares forever and would prefer not to sell. I see the stock price is already above the offer price. Any harm in letting it expire? Green bank is a disaster Any thoughts would be appreciated

#24 Leo Trollstoy on 06.23.21 at 3:22 pm

Rosenberg has made a nice career out of being wrong a lot

I ignore him

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.21 at 3:44 pm

@#13 Millennial 1

“trudeau.. please… no more taxes”

+++

Bwahahahaha.
Trudeau cant help himself.
Like a pyro in a barn full of dry hay with matches….

#26 BlogDog123 on 06.23.21 at 3:49 pm

Just imagine that smarmy look on Trudeau’s face when he wins a majority in October… Carte blanche to keep the ethics commissioner busy… More pork handed out for his friends to feast upon…

Pipelines and Productivity… Not on T2’s radar…

#27 TurnerNation on 06.23.21 at 4:05 pm

Supply chain. More New System chaos in occupied Kanada.
A new virtual Berlin Wall on the Least Coast has truckers lined up for miles. NB/NS.
What’s out that way? The Halifax Port.
What did that stupid leaked memo warn?
Supply chain break down by Q3

This is war. WW3. Our color revolution.

A rental car manager told me their new cars are very delayed. Forcing them keeping old cars much longer.

#28 Cango on 06.23.21 at 4:25 pm

Inflation overshoot has Bank of Canada weighing mandate tweaks – BNN Bloomberg

BoC isn’t going to raise rates anytime soon, regardless of inflation numbers. They’ll keep moving the goalposts.

#29 Grèek appropriation on 06.23.21 at 4:28 pm

It’s a long way to zeta…..

#30 Classical Liberal Millennial on 06.23.21 at 4:28 pm

We can talk about variants for the rest of time. Get your 2 doses, live your life. End the restrictions the moment everyone who wants it has had their 2nd dose. Enough.

#31 Math is not my strong suit on 06.23.21 at 4:34 pm

#12 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:09 pm

I could be wrong, but 10% of hospitalizations with 2 doses doesn’t mean you have a 10% chance of being hospitalized with covid even after 2 doses. Wouldn’t the denominator be total positive cases?

#32 Reality Bites! on 06.23.21 at 5:02 pm

Look around at your community. Who is old and not working? Who is middle aged and not working? who is of working age/ younger age and not working? Add up all the people in your community that are not working. Not a pretty picture for local merchants and businesses. Pogey cheques and pension cheques only go so far. Look at all the communities full of wrinklies and genzees – no one has any spare money to spend so businesses and jobs suffer. Consequently people will move to where there is work available.

#33 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.23.21 at 5:04 pm

KNOCK, KNOCK, SOMEONE’S AT MY DOOR!
Could it be Amazon with more goodies?, Wrong it’s the C.R.A. with a suitcase full of I.O.U’s . It’s the scariest time of the financial year when you owe a fixed tax bill from the previous year. And just when you think it can’t possibly get any worse, your bullet proof portfolio does the impossible, it starts slipping under the waves. What’s a winner to do? You start selling fast to stop the mismatch and get the C.R.A. attack sharks off your back. Believe me when I say it’s coming. As these shell shocked asset owners take losses, they’ll be forced to do the unthinkable, sell, ” BEST IN CLASS”
One can hear the fateful, Jaws theme song, Daaa Dumm, Daaa Dumm. Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies, farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. For we’ve received orders to sail back to Boston and so never more shall we see you again. Daaa Dumm, Daaa Dumm. That’s all I have to say on that, for now.

#34 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 5:15 pm

#12 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:09 pm
Delta UK study last week, about 800 patients:

80 hospitalized, 2 dose vax’d
530 hospitalized, 0 dose vax’d
200 or so 1 dose vax’d

No deaths reported.

So even if 2 dose vax’d the probability is 10% you will end up in hospital, 25% probability if 1 dose vax’d, if you get Delta.
**********************
Wow, that is NOT how this works.
10/800 hospitalized patients had 2 shots
This does not mean everyone who got 2 shots has a 1/80 chance of being hospitalized.

Just look at your numbers
If 10% of 2 shots and 25% of one-shots and 65% of no shots all get hospitalized that would mean
100% of infected get hospitalized

#35 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 5:17 pm

#34 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 5:15 pm
oops missed a /b didn’t mean to bold so much, I’m not yelling…

#36 Barry on 06.23.21 at 5:17 pm

Glad I didn’t listen to Rosenberg (among others) in 2009. I went all in dividend paying stocks. Simply incredible results. I’m very retired.

#37 Brian Ripley on 06.23.21 at 5:23 pm

I have my housing starts charts (5) up now with May data since 1955: http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

Housing Starts in Canada are up 4% relative to last year and are UP 17% from 10 years ago but are DOWN 17% since their peak in 1976.​​

​Alberta starts peaked in 2006 and are now (May 2021) 48% below that 2006 peak.

​It looks like Canada-Wide housing production above the long term downtrend since the mid 1970s is occurring with the May data.

Dropping commodity prices should help housing development here in Canada, but the rising USD:CAD ratio could upset a few applecarts especially in the credit markets where a lot international debt is denominated.

I can’t find the 2020-2021 global USD held debt data but here are the 2000-2019 data:

“The scale of dollar-denominated debts, the component which gets most attention, varies substantially across geographic areas (Figure 5). China’s dollar debts rose to 20% of exports by end-2019 (6% at end-2008). The ratio was much higher in South East Asia (70%, up from 24%) and higher still in Latin America (106%, up from 70%).” https://voxeu.org/article/global-liquidity-and-dollar-debts-emerging-market-corporates

#38 Dolce math is hard on 06.23.21 at 5:35 pm

SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 5:15 pm
#12 Dolce Vita on 06.23.21 at 2:09 pm
Delta UK study last week, about 800 patients:

80 hospitalized, 2 dose vax’d
530 hospitalized, 0 dose vax’d
200 or so 1 dose vax’d

No deaths reported.

So even if 2 dose vax’d the probability is 10% you will end up in hospital, 25% probability if 1 dose vax’d, if you get Delta.
**********************
Wow, that is NOT how this works.
10/800 hospitalized patients had 2 shots
This does not mean everyone who got 2 shots has a 1/80 chance of being hospitalized.

Just look at your numbers
If 10% of 2 shots and 25% of one-shots and 65% of no shots all get hospitalized that would mean 100% of infected get hospitalized

….
Dolce has been hitting the vino again…

#39 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 5:37 pm

#23 Sue on 06.23.21 at 3:10 pm

Re: Brookfield/IPL

——–

Sue, either Brookfield stock or cash payout options will be available. Reading the corporate action, that should arrive within your account if this is approved, there will be a default option if you do nothing- this could be either of the options. In any case, your shares will not by any means expire worthless.

Be assured that whether or not you do anything, you will receive compensation at the agreed rate.

Read the corporate action, though. Here’s a bit more info:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-infrastructure-files-second-notice-011900397.html

#40 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 5:41 pm

#29 Grèek appropriation on 06.23.21 at 4:28 pm

It’s a long way to zeta…..

——

No it’s not. Zeta is the sixth Greek letter, Omega is the last, the 24th.

‘I am the Alpha and the Omega; the beginning and the end’, etc…

#41 Blobby on 06.23.21 at 5:49 pm

Off topic:

Im seeing all this stuff about Canada day.

Surely the answer is simple?

Canada Day is on a Thursday. Lets also have Friday this year as a public holiday to remember and reflect on the abhorrent stuff we did in our history?

(As a Brit – I wonder if we did that “back home”, we’d be shut for most of the year)

#42 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 6:13 pm

#17 Don Guillermo on 06.23.21 at 2:34 pm

Was listening to a caller on talk radio yesterday. He said he spent the past few days driving through the US and crossed into Canada at Coutts, AB. His comment was about listening to the radio while driving. He said in the US radio news was mostly normal with some slight mentioning of Covid. Once he crossed into Canada and tuned into local radio it was Covid, covid, covid and endless covid. I decided to compare CTV, CBC, Fox and CNN home pages. Similar story. No wonder Canadians seem more frightened than our southern neighbors.

——–

Sissies. Reminds me of people who have had one injury and it basically becomes their life narrative.

#43 Ju-uhh-uhh-uhh-stin Blackface on 06.23.21 at 6:19 pm

“And soon (after the election, if he wins) you’ll see what T2 has in store.”

**And I will make sure the election happens before Jody’s cabinet memoir comes out to hurt my cause, in October.

Put it on your calendar. September campaign.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-to-publish-memoir-1.5944350

#44 TurnerNation on 06.23.21 at 6:22 pm

Neo I saw your post. Yes I called it. Yep our tax farm rulers play the long game . Why the Blue Jays and Leafs STILL are banned from the country. It’s the ultimate in mockery isn’t it? And being banned from watching your national sport. Unless and until you submit.

Posted Aug 2020:

#142 TurnerNation on 08.05.20 at 11:52 pm
Save this post. I will. Toronto’s sports stadiums will remain closed until 2021. Hey they’ve banished the Blue Jays team from the country even. In 2021 they will re-open as Mass needle centers.

Today:

— #222 Neo on 06.21.21 at 9:55 am
https://www.cp24.com/news/scotiabank-arena-becoming-covid-19-vaccine-pop-up-next-weekend-10-000-doses-available-1.5478725
Hmmmm. This is exactly what Turner Nation predicted last year would happen…

——————————–

What did I tell you. 2030 is the global goal. The soft sell begins.

“We’ll be having Covid jabs for the next 10 YEARS says health chief as Matt Hancock readies plans for autumn booster shot programme”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9710873/Well-having-Covid-jabs-10-YEARS-predicts-Chris-Hopson-NHS-Providers.html

——
#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.22.21 at 1:24 pm
A 905-area Burger/Fries stand charged last year $7.50 for a medium sized banquet burger.
This year $9.00. I won’t be back. That’s like $1.75 each bite – not worth it.

——-
Science – in the New global System.

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaLadbury
Infectious disease epidemiologist,
“Lockdown” was never even a word I came across in all of my epi training, much of which was focused specifically on the prevention and control of new and emerging infections.
I don’t recognise this landscape we’re now living in.

#45 Nonplused on 06.23.21 at 6:40 pm

#7 MBMC

“Now there’s talk of Climate Lockdowns.”

We’ll be locking down Calgary next week because the forecast is “too hot to go outside”. Forecast is 37 for Tuesday. We just aren’t used to that kind of thing out here. A day like that can make you wish you were back in your air-conditioned office.

We aren’t getting much rain either. Looks like the drought that is devastating the US from California to the Dakotas is now enveloping Alberta. I predict the fire bans will be back on within a week. I also predict another nasty wildfire season. This will, of course, influence food prices as many of the irrigation canals remain empty with no relief in sight. The whole city of Las Vegas could run out of water by the end of July if it doesn’t start raining. Farmers in Oregon are threatening to “open the gates themselves” if they don’t get some water but there isn’t enough to go around.

My grass is pretty much dead. In June! The neighbors who have contracts with lawn services are still mowing but I don’t know why, it isn’t growing. Not even the dandelions are growing.

Hard to believe it was just 2013 when the Stampede grounds and most of downtown were under water.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

2020: “I was pretty badass, eh?”
2021: “Hold my beer and watch this!”

#46 Brunett43 on 06.23.21 at 6:51 pm

My diversified portfolio is doing great, up 14% so far this year. Early last year as Covid was ravaging the globe my financial adviser called me and wanted me to throw some extra cash at BMO, the stock was around 57 at the time. I was a bit hesitant with everything crashing around the world.
But I trust him immensely, and I’m ok with a bit of risk. Well, BMO is 127.9 today. I rarely take out any extra capital gains, but I need a new fireplace, my existing one croaked this spring, I’m gonna treat myself and spend a little. My adviser is much like Garth, if he wasn’t I’d be getting a new dog that writes this blog.

#47 Greek alphabet soup on 06.23.21 at 6:53 pm

#40 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 5:41 pm
#29 Grèek appropriation on 06.23.21 at 4:28 pm

It’s a long way to zeta…..

——

No it’s not. Zeta is the sixth Greek letter, Omega is the last, the 24th.

‘I am the Alpha and the Omega; the beginning and the end’, etc…

….

True!

It’s all greek to me…thankfully there are only 24!! We are closer to the end!

#48 Nonplused on 06.23.21 at 7:17 pm

Hmmm, who would have seen this coming?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/california-begs-citizens-change-their-ev-charging-routines-amidst-precarious-power-grid

And then there is this:

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-owners-switching-gas-charging-a-hassle-study-2021-4?op=1

What happens to the grid when everyone has a “level 2” charger in the garage? Right now there are about 660,000 electric cars in California. What happens when there are 5,000,000?

#49 Jake on 06.23.21 at 7:21 pm

I remember seeing that nutbar’s (Gerald Celeste) video, 5 minutes of it before turning it off and focussing back on buying beat up quality stocks all throughout 2020. Garth, I applaud you for staying vigilant. Your words were a guiding light in an otherwise scary world. Ok… I’m sucking up, but your blog really did help avoid listening to the nutbars out there.

#50 willworkforpickles on 06.23.21 at 7:32 pm

Looking just ahead and speaking of roaring 20’s like expansion coming as it may seem… could all turn into a big letdown from too early expectation and heightened false hopes after the next few months.
In just some months from now we may get to see that we were only sitting in the eye of a very wide economic hurricane.
Nonetheless, the next qtr. will be hot…economically speaking.

#51 Sara of a thousand faces on 06.23.21 at 7:35 pm

#19 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 2:44 pm
#117 oh the irony on 06.23.21 at 12:44 pm
Sorry for the delay in replying but I am still LMAO at some guy who calls himself Soggy Shorts calling me a coward for not using my name lol

Taking things a little too seriously there Mr. Shorts
**************
So to be clear, you’re too embarrassed by your own stupidity to use your regular screen name?
Probably a good call.
===================

@ Soggy underwear.

Who cares? I mean seriously. If you are going to chastise someone for not using the same anonymous alias from which to post ALL their anonymous thoughts, then why don’t you use your REAL name when you post yours?

#52 Trojan House on 06.23.21 at 7:45 pm

My neighbour is a salesperson for a local Nissan dealership. They can’t sell cars because they don’t have any to sell. The manufacturers apparently can’t get their hands on the electronic components needed to make a car because they are being bought up bitcoin miners! Their sister GM dealership is taking orders for cars that won’t be built for at least 7 months or longer.

#53 Say hi to Dave for me! on 06.23.21 at 7:46 pm

#8 Summertime on 06.23.21 at 1:56 pm

David Rosenberg is a top economist, former Chief North American Economist for Merry Lynch, 10 years at the top of Gluskin Sheff and most importantly someone I know personally.

Calling him nuts is quite a bold statement.

_________________________________

You really need to start hanging out with better people. Rosenberg has a decades long record of embarrassing himself y making incorrect and outlandish predictions. He was given his walking papers from his last gig…. Or didn’t he tell you?

That being said, he comes across as being quite convincing!

#54 espressobob on 06.23.21 at 8:02 pm

Global index investing has been working out just fine for years. Returns meet or exceed my expectations. No complaints.

Feel bad for those who still engage in commodity plays, like crypto or PMs, Ouch…

#55 Jake on 06.23.21 at 8:03 pm

#52 Trojan House on 06.23.21 at 7:45 pm
My neighbour is a salesperson for a local Nissan dealership. They can’t sell cars because they don’t have any to sell.

The backlog in used cars is huuggee! Worst investment anyone can make is a new car. Buy a used 1 or 2 year old car after it has depreciated 30-40%.

#56 doomer hate on 06.23.21 at 8:09 pm

Hey what’s with all the doomer hate?

I love those guys.

Without them we’d never be able to buy stuff cheap.

#57 Mean Guy on 06.23.21 at 8:18 pm

I’m trying out names so Soggy will stop calling me…names.

Funny thing is, I too (used to) know Rosie since I worked at the same place (many moons ago), and he’s one of the smartest guys I know, and very well informed.

He’s not what I consider a doomer at all. Certainly not the ‘end is near’ type.

Unless he’s changed since I knew him, but I still find his insights valuable.

More so than people who have been dead wrong on housing for a decade or so.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.21 at 8:27 pm

@#51 Sara of 1000 faces
“….why don’t you use your REAL name when you post yours?”

++++

If I may interject.
Surprisingly, Fartz is my real last name.
I come from an illustrious, long line of Fartz.
It may be German, Dutch or, God help me , Austrian.
Either way.
I believe it was Ebenezer Fartz Von Crapper that immigrated to Canada.
Decided to shorten his name to Fartz to avoid the embarrassment of the “Von Crapper” (Royalty/Throne..etc) and the rest, as they say, was history.

#59 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 8:37 pm

#51 Sara of a thousand faces on 06.23.21 at 7:35 pm
#19 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 2:44 pm
#117 oh the irony on 06.23.21 at 12:44 pm
@ Soggy underwear.
Who cares[about names]? I mean seriously.

***********************************
I prefer knowing roughly whom I am addressing for continuity, so I can see their other posts, and so I can address them when I reply or point out similar topics in the future.
But fine, let’s return to the actual substance of my last reply to them I’ll simply repost it and hope they (whoever they are) see and respond this time:
//////
//////
#7 SoggyShorts on 06.22.21 at 1:32 pm
#128 Math is not so hard on 06.22.21 at 8:20 am
Last math lesson of the day, which I never would have thought needed to be explained, but soggy minded thinking abounds.

A 30% return on $1M home is better than a 150% return on a $100,000 stock portfolio is better than a 1,700% return on a $5,000 stock portfolio.

% alone is meaningless.
**********************
Again, you are assuming everyone lives in Ontario.
Houses in AB for example went down in price, so how great is 20x leverage plus closing costs there?

I don’t know how many different ways I can tell you that house prices aren’t the same across Canada.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.21 at 8:44 pm

Retails sales way down.
I think we should cancel the “Roaring Twenties II”

Ah, we just had a lockdown. The stores were closed. – Garth

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.21 at 8:48 pm

Kenney does the decent thing and earmarks 8 mill to locate unmarked graves in former residential schools.

#62 Sara on 06.23.21 at 8:52 pm

#58 LOL

#63 Quintilian on 06.23.21 at 8:59 pm

Good idea to be invested and balanced, but the “Roaring Twenties” narrative is simply overplayed and ridiculous.

The sugar high from all the stimulus will definitely be felt, but unlike the 20’S, everyone already has too many toys and debt so it won’t last.

#64 Trojan House on 06.23.21 at 9:10 pm

Here’s one for TurnerNation: Biodigital Convergance

This study was put out February 2020 by Policy Horizons Canada:

https://archive.is/2021.05.11-162504/https://horizons.gc.ca/en/2020/02/11/exploring-biodigital-convergence/

#65 Sara on 06.23.21 at 9:11 pm

Uggh. Warning on my neighbourhood mailbox that there is a serial cat killer on the loose. Fortunately, Ottawa police get that this could escalate to humans. Reminder to keep your pets indoors (as if there wasn’t enough reason already….cars, coyotes, etc).

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/seventh-cat-found-dead-in-west-ottawa-neighbourhood-amid-fears-of-serial-cat-killer-1.5481323

#66 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 9:13 pm

#55 Jake on 06.23.21 at 8:03 pm

Worst investment anyone can make is a new car. Buy a used 1 or 2 year old car after it has depreciated 30-40%.

———

Nissan maybe, but incorrect for actual quality cars.

New with deals is better than used. Do the math next time you’re in the market.

#67 Sara says "birds matter too" on 06.23.21 at 9:17 pm

Cats are amazing, but so are birds and other small animals. Keep your cats inside.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.21 at 9:27 pm

@#61 Pontius Pilatus
“Kenney does the decent thing and earmarks 8 mill to locate unmarked graves in former residential schools.’

+++

750 more unmarked graves rediscovered in Sask.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/06/23/hundreds-of-unmarked-graves-found-at-former-residential-school-in-saskatchewan/

The march of time.
People forget.
Graveyard Boundaries get moved.
Nothing diabolical about it.

Mass graves in England

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00473-y

#69 Mean Guy on 06.23.21 at 9:35 pm

Soggy,

Math works the same no matter which province you are in.

The hypothetical I gave had nothing to do with location, taxes, or fees, but to do with the reality that the vast majority of people have a much larger investment in their homes than they do in stocks, or single meme stocks.

Trying to compare purely the % return of a cherry picked stock that only Jim Cramer fans own a few thousand bucks of to the returns on something that 60% plus of Canadians own to the tune of hundreds of thousands of $$ is a little bit absurd.

If you can’t understand why that is, I’m afraid I can’t help you.

(Dreading now having to hear how Soggy is a Nvidia gazillionaire, sigh)

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.21 at 9:57 pm

#68 CEV
Kenny’s doing the decent and human thing.
Not something that you would ever understand.
I think we need to respect the parent’s and the communities’ need to know what happened to their children.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.21 at 10:06 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.21 at 8:44 pm
Retails sales way down.
I think we should cancel the “Roaring Twenties II”

Ah, we just had a lockdown. The stores were closed. – Garth
————-
That’s what the “Chief Economist” of Global BC said on TeeVee today.
I just embellished a little bit.

#72 espressobob on 06.23.21 at 10:13 pm

Doom and gloom is attractive to those emotionally reactive. This stuff sells. Who the hell wants to hear positive flows?

Human nature deserves a boot out of the window if one is to be a successful retail investor. Ignore the rhetoric and stay the course,

John Bogle style.

#73 SoggyShorts on 06.23.21 at 10:16 pm

#69 Mean Guy on 06.23.21 at 9:35 pm
Soggy,
Math works the same no matter which province you are in.
The hypothetical I gave had nothing to do with location, taxes, or fees, but to do with the reality that the vast majority of people have a much larger investment in their homes than they do in stocks, or single meme stocks.

***********************
No. The hypothetical you gave showing how leverage amplifies gains is garbage because you only used positive numbers, completely neglecting the fact that returns on housing in AB are negative

Guess what? Leverage works both ways.

So while “the math is the same in every province”, the results most certainly are not:

♦In Toronto, using leverage, house investors made out better than many stock market investors.
♦In Calgary, using leverage, most (if not all) did way worse than most stock market investors.

So, circling waaaaay back to your original erroneous post that “I’ve run the numbers and real estate was a better investment in Canada than stocks the last 5 years”

You’re still wrong, because the stock market is global, and real estate is local.

#74 Cici on 06.23.21 at 10:29 pm

#69 Mean Guy

I agree with Soggy, even if he was a little mean. Your numbers were cherry picked and not applicable to most jurisdications.

And, lots of portfolios are well above $100,000. In fact, that’s why Garth think has been encouraging people who’ve seen epic rises in the value of their equity to cash out and put it in the markets for sustained gains.

I know people who spent $400,000 to build their home, which is now worth well at least $2.5 million. They enjoy their home and don’t need the money, so they won’t sell. Which is all good. But, if they were struggling financially and faced with the potential to become underwater should interest rates rise, they could always sell right now, invest the proceeds in a B&D and sleep much better at night.

#75 MONOPOLY MONEY on 06.23.21 at 10:50 pm

The Greatest PONZI scheme out of them all…

The American Dollar.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/yellen-renews-debt-limit-plea-to-avert-potential-august-default-1.1620946

#76 Jo on 06.23.21 at 11:46 pm

Daisy is going to be my screen saver. Wow, she looks awesome for a senior dog. Don’t have the courage quite yet to get my own dog, but maybe soon. Keep thinking I will come across one, that no one else wants, that will be the dog for me.

#77 When Will They Raise Rates? on 06.24.21 at 12:13 am


But wait. What if Covid comes back? The Delta version?

Could happen, but more quarantines, lockdowns and restrictions are unlikely to be the response. Besides, by the autumn 75% of North Americans will be fully dosed so even a Fourth Wave would have far less impact on the health care system. In short, it’s over.

Boosters and “new products” to deal with a perpetual stream of new variants are coming, according to the Peel health czar…

It’s not over, this is the opening act.

#78 Omega or Bust on 06.24.21 at 12:27 am

#40 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 5:41 pm

#29 Grèek appropriation on 06.23.21 at 4:28 pm

It’s a long way to zeta…..

——

No it’s not. Zeta is the sixth Greek letter, Omega is the last, the 24th.

‘I am the Alpha and the Omega; the beginning and the end’, etc…
…………..

Seems we’ve blown right past zeta… and have reached Lamda!!! Zeta was a Brazilian flavour…

https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

To paraphrase Doomerberg.. the end is nigh….

#79 Oilberta FREEDOM DAY - July 1 on 06.24.21 at 12:33 am

#63 Quintilian on 06.23.21 at 8:59 pm

Good idea to be invested and balanced, but the “Roaring Twenties” narrative is simply overplayed and ridiculous.

The sugar high from all the stimulus will definitely be felt, but unlike the 20’S, everyone already has too many toys and debt so it won’t last.

Minus WW1 and the spanish flu… a mini-me roaring 20s version seems closer to the mark.. still.. folks are mighty primed to be unleashed…. let er rip…

#80 NSNG on 06.24.21 at 12:39 am

#18 cramar on 06.23.21 at 2:44 pm

Hundred bucks a barrel for oil!? Can you imagine what the price of gasoline will be then?

I remember when oil went to $150 and the ever accurate Goldman Sachs was predicting we were on our way to $250 ($150 was the peak. GS does that to its clients).

The price of gas in Vancouver reached a horrifying …$1.50 per litre

=================================

#48 Nonplused on 06.23.21 at 7:17 pm

And then there is this:

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-owners-switching-gas-charging-a-hassle-study-2021-4?op=1

There is nothing funnier to me than driving by an electric charging station at 3 a.m. seeing some guy plugged into it charging his expensive EV. Bring something to read.

It’s a religion.

#81 Sue on 06.24.21 at 2:09 am

#39 Sail Away on 06.23.21 at 5:37 pm
#23 Sue on 06.23.21 at 3:10 pm

Re: Brookfield/IPL

——–

Sue, either Brookfield stock or cash payout options will be available. Reading the corporate action, that should arrive within your account if this is approved, there will be a default option if you do nothing- this could be either of the options. In any case, your shares will not by any means expire worthless.

Be assured that whether or not you do anything, you will receive compensation at the agreed rate.

Read the corporate action, though. Here’s a bit more info:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-infrastructure-files-second-notice-011900397.html
——————————————————————————————
Thank you ! I appreciate that. I didnt see that in my account but will check again tomorrow. My gut is to wait until i hear back from ipl. They said there have been alot of calls. That link was more helpful than the bank, my mistake was trying to read the booklet!

#82 Diharv on 06.24.21 at 3:26 am

There’s not going to be economic expansion for six years if oil climbs to and surpasses $100 and keeps climbing. High oil prices will eventually kill the expansion and recession will follow. Is everyone’s memories that short? Remember 2008? historically, US recessions are preceded by high spikes in oil prices. So be careful about being gleeful when it costs $100 to fill up you Corolla.

#83 westcdn on 06.24.21 at 5:53 am

I have to say something about my mother. She came from a family of 14 kids not far from my father’s – ass cold Saskatchewan, think outhouses and piss pots. Both families were homesteaders and farmers but they were not alone, just had big distances between them.

It took a while for them to build a house with a large kitchen which provided the heat in winter. They lived in barns until this was done. None died, a testament to my families’ resilience.

The thirties were not fun on the prairies and guys would hop freight trains to find a paying wage. Whining does agree with me. Nuff said.

#84 Dharma Bum on 06.24.21 at 6:46 am

Can’t wait to head back to Alberta for a visit soon.

I can finally take the rag offa my face.

Ahhhhhh….fresh air. No Ford.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/alberta-is-the-sole-province-without-a-mask-mandate-1.5197577

#85 Prince Polo on 06.24.21 at 6:47 am

Garth – it’s your pal, Benny Tal*!
*also Katherine Judge

Let’s face it. Nobody can be too certain about where inflation will be two years from now. And that includes the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. What we are more confident about is that whatever inflationary forces are out there, they will be sooner to arrive south of the border, and easier to contain with interest rate hikes north of the border. If that’s true, why is the market still pricing in a more aggressive tightening trajectory by the Bank of Canada?

https://economics.cibccm.com/#/cds?ID=d9612bb0-acf0-45a3-8d9b-7ec4e9a14932&TYPE=E

#86 Wrk.dover on 06.24.21 at 6:52 am

#76 Jo on 06.23.21 at 11:46 pm
Daisy is going to be my screen saver. Wow, she looks awesome for a senior dog.
____________________________

Looks like senior Leslie Stahl of 60 minutes fame….

#87 Editrix on 06.24.21 at 7:39 am

https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2021/06/24/a-condo-in-downtown-toronto-for-less-than-500000-heres-a-spot-on-queen-west-if-you-can-deal-with-past-developer-bankruptcy-woes.html

“Renting the place costs about $1,900 a month compared to buying the place and putting a minimum of 20 per cent mortgage down that’ll cost about $2,200 instead. The mortgage would cover taxes, maintenance fees and your utilities.”

Why buy when it’s cheaper to rent?

Condo mortgage payments do not cover fees, utilities or taxes. – Garth

#88 New Brunswickers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.24.21 at 8:13 am

Stay away all you western hillbillies!

Keep Halifax and Lunenburg pure and safe!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/border-restrictions-protest-transcanada-wednesday-1.6076442

#89 Prince Polo on 06.24.21 at 8:31 am

#20 ogdoad on 06.22.21 at 2:58 pm
Garth, honest question: What do you think of covered call ETF’s? Gimmicky? (BMO – ZWB (Low Man. Fees))A friend is weightily invested but receiving a good income.
Any insight?

I’m not Garth (and he or any of the blog-dogs can smack me down if I am out to lunch), but ZWB is worst during a time of anticipated stock price appreciation, since one is trading the potential capital gains for a boost in income. Personally, I anticipate the cap gains from bank buybacks/dividend increases will be higher than the call premiums collected.
DISCLAIMER: if you lose money on this extremely unprofessional advice, it’s your own fault.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.21 at 8:35 am

@#70 Ponzies Plot
“I think we need to respect the parent’s and the communities’ need to know what happened to their children.”

+++++

I believe the Kamloops burial site was a graveyard from the early 1900’s.
The Sask graveyard appears to be from the late 1800’s.

Prepare for more rediscovered gravesites over the next 10 – 20 years.

New York city has been burying hundreds of thousands of people over 150 years in unmarked graves on Hart Island.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart_Island_(Bronx)

Unclaimed, or unknown, or paupers graves that didn’t have the money for a permanent , stone marker.

And then there are the “Sky Burials” of Tibet where the bodies are “returned” to the sky through excarnation….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_burial

#91 Sail Away on 06.24.21 at 8:50 am

Re: Brookfield and IPL

Nothing’s been accepted yet. Any corporate action notice wil only come out after agreement. Probably a couple of months at soonest, maybe much longer. Pembina might also up their offer and turn this into a bidding war. Patience. From the news release:

“The expiry time of the Offer has been extended and is open for acceptance until 5:00 p.m. (Mountain Standard Time) on Tuesday, July 13, 2021.”

#92 Marlene from Victoria on 06.24.21 at 8:54 am

A very useful post, Garth. And some days, you contribute almost as much goodness as a puppy does to one’s life!

#93 Mean Guy on 06.24.21 at 9:10 am

#74 Cici and Soggy

Your assertions that Canadians have benefited more from renting than buying a home over the past (pick any number of years ending today) is clearly nonsense, but I don’t care to waste more time arguing the obvious.

I do wonder though, why all the calls for ending the ‘housing bubble’ and not the stock bubble, since stocks have apparently outperformed housing?

I know I know, because people have to live in houses.

But they can rent and be far better off, so why all the fuss? Rents are going down, condos are plentiful.

Maybe homeowners should start calling for Nvidia to be brought back to an affordable level, it’s just not fair!

As for sleeping well renting and having all your eggs in a stock and fixed income portfolio, how well did you sleep From February to April of last year?

My house gained value during that time and I slept like a baby the entire year.

I’m sure the 40% drop in your stocks didn’t cause you any alarm at all. Because, you know, the stock market volatility never worries anyone. It’s homeowners who lose sleep, watching the house price index minute by minute. It’s nerve wracking for sure.

Stock investors at least know their stocks are worth something. Nortel, Enron, Bre-X and hundreds of more like that were anomalies, stocks are safe and very easy to understand. Regulators are well on top of things. I mean, they caught Madoff didn’t they? Didn’t they? Accounting manipulation at corporations is nothing to worry about at all. You can keep on top of it. Reading 10-Q’s is a fun way to spend your evenings.

As opposed to a house which is difficult to understand, is only good for sleeping, and you have to mow the lawn and pay the mortgage every month.

Oh, wait a second, my mortgage was paid off after 25 years, so about 10 years ago.

If only I could have been smart I’d still have to pay rent every month for the rest of my life. Oh well, live and learn.

#94 Suburban Bob on 06.24.21 at 9:10 am

Hey, who needs to pay high prices for dirt under a house when you can have the great views and stability of a condo with special assessments and shared ventilation plus such amazing structural integrity !?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7976726/miami-condo-building-partially-collapses/

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.21 at 9:33 am

@#93 Mean Goy
“If only I could have been smart I’d still have to pay rent every month for the rest of my life. Oh well, live and learn.”

+++

You do pay “rent” for the rest of your life as a homeowner.
Its called property taxes, garbage fees, Water fees, Maintenance fees, House insurance, etc etc etc.
Probably works out monthly to about a 1 bedroom apartment goes for in Greater Van.
And the way all levels of govts are burning through cash to prove how “Woke” they are….
Enjoy the rise in “rent”.

#96 Sail Away on 06.24.21 at 9:39 am

#218 Sail Away on 06.21.21 at 8:39 am
#140 Faron on 06.20.21 at 4:57 pm

The social media sentiment w/re equities right now is very, very dour. All the punters are fearful. Monday will probably be a bit of a roller coaster, but at some point, if you have cash to invest, buying a dip may not be a bad plan.

I will humbly acknowledge wrongness if last week was the top before a major correction.

———

Just stop. You are consistently and significantly wrong.

———

The significant consistency continues.

Humble or not, you can now acknowledge wrongness. And stop. Just stop.

#97 Islanddave on 06.24.21 at 10:04 am

David Rosenberg certainly is a well known bear, but personally I read his stuff regularly, I may not agree with his take on things, but I do consider him an intelligent, articulate individual, but that celente guy… now we are on the same page lol
Guy is loony

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.21 at 10:12 am

@#88 Stay away

“Keep Halifax and Lunenburg pure and safe!”

+++

Lunenburg isn’t exactly pure and safe.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bayport-man-charged-murder-truck-dublin-shore-1.6072483

#99 jerry w on 06.24.21 at 10:16 am

Our economy is currently held up by residential real estate and commodities. That’s it. Every other metric sucks. Those are the facts. When those 2 come off the boil, there are no roaring 20’s, sorry Garth. That’s not doomerism, it’s just a fact. Rosenberg is joined by Lacy Hunt, John Hussman, Grantham – are they all nuts? They seem pretty accomplished to me. There’s major risk ahead in the markets, not sunny ways.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.24.21 at 10:16 am

Never buy a condo (in Florida, on the beach)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rescuers-rush-partial-building-collapse-miami-beach-n1272216

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.21 at 10:29 am

@#100 P.P.

“Kenny’s doing the decent and human thing.
Not something that you would ever understand.”
++++++

Never buy a condo (in Florida, on the beach)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rescuers-rush-partial-building-collapse-miami-beach-n1272216

++++

Careful.

Your humanity and decency are showing……

#102 Grandma Sue on 06.24.21 at 10:42 am

In short its over…. Oh Garth, if you only knew, it hasn’t even really begun. Prayers for all.

#103 Grandma Sue on 06.24.21 at 10:51 am

BTW, bill C-10 was quietly passed at 1:30am the other day. Bye bye free speech (officially now). Canada gave us a good run… last one free to do so, please turn out the lights.

#104 Sandy Henson on 06.24.21 at 10:55 am

Believe what you want but things are worse, getting worse and will continue to get worse. When I see on my street that you need 5, 6 sometimes 7 people to live in modest size house to just pay the bills and hope that after 25 years maybe 30 years that the house is paid off and that is such a great achievement is really sad.

Good luck Canadians living in your delusional bubble called Trudeau, Freeland, socialist fake utopia.

#105 Cici on 06.24.21 at 11:16 am

#93 Mean Guy on 06.24.21 at 9:10 am
#74 Cici and Soggy

“Your assertions that Canadians have benefited more from renting than buying a home over the past (pick any number of years ending today) is clearly nonsense, but I don’t care to waste more time arguing the obvious.

I do wonder though, why all the calls for ending the ‘housing bubble’ and not the stock bubble, since stocks have apparently outperformed housing?”
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Sorry, but I NEVER asserted that ALL Canadians have benefitted more from renting than buying. Some have, others haven’t. It depends on a lot of factors, like age, personal and marital situation, place of residence, household income, etc. That said, in places like BC and Ontario, most people who have bought in the last 10 to 20 years have seen epicly magical equity gains. However, thos gains also come at a huge cost: I also know people who were to sell after a divorce that ruined them and were subsequently priced out forever in such areas due to those magin “gains.” The media loves to publish the details of RE lotto wins, but not the other side of the depreciating coin.

I never said anything about a bubble bursting either. Have thought that might happen many times, but money printing has kept that boat afloat. All I said in my post is that the AVERAGE Canadian homeowner has not seen $1 million RE gains in the last decade. In some cities, yes; in others, well above or below that. And yes, stocks can go down to, but at least they pay you to own them.

The point of my post was that ownership at this point in the market can be very risky, depending on your debt levels and how much skin you have in the game. I even provided an example of a family I know who has seen paper gains of over $2 million on their paid-off home, and who don’t even need to think about selling. However, I did say that those sitting on that type of gain but who are heavily indebted and already having trouble making their monthlies MIGHT be better off selling and investing.

But maybe not, who knows. The tide may very well never go out, and this just may be the new normal.

It’s all about risk, and how much you can handle while you wait to find out whether you’ll be spanked or spoiled.

Personally, I believe in diversification. House and portfolio is ideal if you can afford both without sacrificing your personal finances. That’s why I love Garth’s rule of 90.

#106 Graeme on 06.24.21 at 2:47 pm

Love your thoughts but I do also follow the likes of the doomers and consider what they say also. From my perspective you saying rates will rise materially is not unlike those saying gold will go to 20K……. we’re still waiting. The fact CBs tried to raise then had to suddenly reverse in 2019, the same year gold perked up (both before corona) actually makes me give one point to the doomers. You have some catching up to do.

#107 SoggyShorts on 06.24.21 at 4:12 pm

#93 Mean Guy on 06.24.21 at 9:10 am
#74 Cici and Soggy

“Your assertions that Canadians have benefited more from renting than buying a home over the past (pick any number of years ending today) is clearly nonsense, but I don’t care to waste more time arguing the obvious.”

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You’re moving the goalposts, and putting words in my mouth.
some Canadians in some markets did better in RE, but not all.

Which I even gave verifiable proof and examples for.
It’s not that hard to take your timeframe (5 years) and google “Average [province] house price in 2016/2021”

This is the only assertion I have made, and a point you somehow still fail to grasp.
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Oh, wait a second, my mortgage was paid off after 25 years, so about 10 years ago.

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Ok, boomer. I can’t say I’m shocked that someone who bought a house in the 80s for 2.5 years of wages thinks housing is the greatest investment of all time and always will be.
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#93 Mean Guy on 06.24.21 at 9:10 am
If only I could have been smart I’d still have to pay rent every month for the rest of my life. Oh well, live and learn.
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Interestingly I’ll never have to pay rent ever again either since my boring index investment portfolio pays it for me. I also will never owe property taxes or make repairs.

#108 Niagara Region on 06.24.21 at 5:09 pm

QUESTION RE: MUTUAL FUNDS MER & MANAGEMENT FEE
I am a fifty-five-year-old (with a pension from work) venturing into purchasing my first mutual funds and am put off by the MER fee of 2.44% plus the management fee of 2%. IS ROUGHLY 4.4% A STANDARD CHARGE FOR MUTUAL FUNDS? The bank rep recommends the following: (1) CI Global Assessment Management Signature Global Income & Growth Fund; (2) MacKenzie Moderate Growth ETF Portfolio and also Global Environmental Equity Fund, Series A; and (3) NEI Select Growth RS Portfolio Series A. I am planning to start with a $40,000 investment. Any advice?

Run. – Garth

#109 Niagara Region on 06.24.21 at 5:33 pm

Thanks, Garth! I have a second idea for investing. My sixty-year-old spouse is an American with a retirement plan through work (TIAA). Because his salary is low, he uses only a fraction of his voluntary contribution room. I could send him money to max out his voluntary contributions and also give him a tax break. (The employer contribution is maxed out and would not change.) Does this sound like a good idea?

#110 Dave Williams on 06.24.21 at 10:12 pm

The only thing preventing the boom would be a black swan event… but then a B&D would still be your best friend.

#111 Prince Polo on 06.26.21 at 8:05 am


Or, in the case of many in the steerage section, a personality transplant.

Yessir – it’s why I keep coming back to this pathetic blog. Can’t wait to have a new personality that is even more pathetic!! LOL.