Let’s worry

Kelowna has its charms. Hills. A big lake. Aquatic monster. The barmaids at Joey Restaurant.

This BC town also looks like Mississauga in a Tommy Bahama shirt and has a real estate market just as nutso. As prices in the 905 have gone ballistic thanks to the unaffordability of Toronto, so has Kelowna erupted thanks to the housing disaster in Vancouver. Prices in Mississaugs passed the $1 million mark a month or two ago and the same fate has befallen K-town now.

As of yesterday, Kelowna broke through that mark, with detached houses gaining $23,000 in the last month. Look at the chart below, says our resident on-the-ground blog dog analyst. “If we get the 8 rate hikes that some are forecasting for a +2% increase in rates within the next year, then the leg down adjustment will be doubled to a -$302,871 drop in price (from whatever we peak out at in the coming months) on the average Kelowna home by 2023.”

Click to enlarge. Wear PPE.

If that were to happen, all those dewy-eyed buyers in 2021 would be in for a massive shock. And that’s why nobody in the middle of a boom ever believes it can end. But the chart above is one of human emotion, not income gains or economic expansion. It typifies nicely why Canada is in such a delicate place these days.

If you feel like worrying, here are fine places to start.

Who needs to make stuff anymore?
Instead, let’s just sell each other houses! Remember that huge 5.9% spike in annualized gross domestic product (GDP) we told you about recently? It was trumpeted as clear evidence  the economy is roaring back to life as Covid crumbles. But then we heard 68,000 more people lost work in May, and now news that 3.9% of that GDP gain – or two-thirds of the economic pop – was due to residential real estate. Says Capital Economics: ““Residential investment now accounts for 10.3% of nominal GDP, which, strikingly, means it is a larger component than business investment.” Oh, snap.

What do they know that we don’t?
Fannie Mae is the US housing giant and routinely runs a Home Price Sentiment Index. The latest results are…wow. Never before have as many said this is an awful, lousy and dangerous moment to dive in. Surging prices, scant supply, greedy sellers and rapacious realtors have taken their toll. In March over half of Americans were gung-ho on buying. Now just 35% would do so.  Conversely, 56% believe this is a terrible time for real estate.

Meanwhile in Canada? The latest Nik Nanos poll done for Bloomberg gives real estate a positive rating of 61.58%, up from a month ago and 25 points higher than the average for the last 13 years (when houses cost a lot less). So, who’s got this right? Stay tuned.

Borrow ‘til you bleed.
A trillion has a lot of zeroes. Twelve. It’s a thousand times a billion, which is a thousand millions. The entire Canadian economy is $1.97 trillion. And guess how much money households now owe? It’s $2.1 trillion. This comes thanks to a massive 41% increase in new mortgage borrowing in the last few months, compared to the same period in 2020. The size of mortgages people are taking has also grown – by a fifth. The Kelowna chart you just blew past says why. We’ve lost our minds. We no longer fear debt. Low rates, WFH savings, government cheques and serious FOMO have addled our brains and brought us to the point when over 20% of all new borrowers have debt-to-income ratios exceeding 450%.

Warns the credit agency which keeps tabs on our steaming pile of indebtedness: ““Successful vaccine rollouts will be the critical factor in opening up the economy, which will have a big impact on consumer spending and debt management. Canadians should be preparing themselves for a point in time, which will likely come in this calendar year, when governments begin to rein in support mechanisms.”

Refi, then rinse and repeat.
New mortgage borrowing is off the chart, but it’s not just the kids – newbie buyers – who are going to the well. Increasingly Canadians are refinancing their homes, turning them into ATMs, sucking out equity and using it for other purposes – like buying more real estate. TransUnion reports that mortgage originations have surged 26% year/year. Much of that is due to buying activity, but a whopping 55% is coming from existing customers renewing and getting refis. As we all know (or should) these interest rates will not hold for much longer and everyone borrowing today will be renewing at a bigger number down the road.

In summary: a disproportionate amount of the economy as real estate… historic prices detached from incomes… frothy buyer sentiment and outsized expectations… record levels of personal and housing debt… teaser interest rates and equity take-outs… what could possibly go wrong?

About the picture: ” I’ve been enjoying your blog for years,” says Lewis in his MSU. “Hopefully you will keep it up for many more years to come. Here’s a pic for you, of the new addition to our family. This is Solo, a Wheaton/poodle cross. He’s just over 8 weeks, and is so far a wonderful dog. It’s been about 10 years since we had a dog in the family, and we are very excited! All the best, and thanks for your work.”

142 comments ↓

#1 T-Rev on 06.08.21 at 2:29 pm

I work in the Canadian division of a worldwide, publicly traded heavyweight. 5 continents, 75,000 employees.

The return to work order was issued this past Monday morning for Alberta- all employees are expected back in the office by July 5th, in accordance with the phase 2 re-opening. Everyone’s bright shiny face is expected at that time.

WFH is near its end.

#2 Brian Ripley on 06.08.21 at 2:36 pm

My Plunge-O-Meter with May data is up with 4 price support scenarios (2019, 2013, 2009 & 2005):
http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

In March 2021 all single family detached prices peaked in the 6 Biggest Canadian cities.

In April 2021 4/6 did, ie: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.

​In May 2021 3/6 did, ie: Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto.

Seems to be a downward trend.

If March 2019 is the new price support, then at the current rate of descent, SF detached prices:

Vancouver will reach support in FEB 2022
Ottawa will reach support in OCT 2023
Montreal will reach support in OCT 2024

If 2019 support does not hold, then look at 2013 support and:

Vancouver will reach support in JAN 2023
Ottawa will reach support in SEP 2024
Montreal will reach support in JAN 2026

Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto are still to be determined.

#3 Dave on 06.08.21 at 2:39 pm

The above has been true for at least 5 plus years…so why different now? Like you said…worst case scenario a 5 to 15% drop in prices but as always then things go right back up. As long as you can make payments during the dip you will still be far far ahead financially because real estate will bounce back

#4 The cat's meow! on 06.08.21 at 2:39 pm

There’s two types of people… Those that live in Kelowna…. and those that wish they did.

I sold at the peak of Toronto market back in March 2017 to move here. Please don’t make me do it again. (even though we are up 67% since then)

Reality is, you couldn’t pay me enough to sell now! Or could you? Hmmmm.

#5 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:44 pm

LOL! I feel bad for these sukas with multiple mortgages.

“We don’t need no water, let the ************ burn, burn ************ burn.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDSOIspSTP4

(Language warning!)

What the hell kind of music do you listen to? Garth

#6 Richard L on 06.08.21 at 2:49 pm

Well said Garth.

I play golf with a bunch of grumpy old men. Apart from complaining about our respective games, the talk is almost invariably about how much money everyone has made due to real estate. The concept of opportunity cost is unknown.

I rent and invest. I keep my mouth shut.

#7 Billy Buoy on 06.08.21 at 2:50 pm

8 interest rate hikes…

Hilarious unless under .001 at a time…

The government does not have the money tree to bail out everyone on the streets if that happened thus NEVER.

#8 Dan in Nanaimo on 06.08.21 at 2:54 pm

We are addicted to FED/CB stimulus and all the RE that easy money can buy. It’s that simple.

Reminds me of the pinball arcades of the 1970’s… everything was cool until your machine went TILT.

#9 Faron on 06.08.21 at 3:00 pm

#154 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:05 pm

Because he is not saying what you claim he is saying.

Look at what you wrote in response to his comment. You expressed disgust at the act and sadness/concern for the murdered. i.e. a normal human response to an extremely sad, disgusting and tragic act.

Sail Away commented the news item seemingly as a means of drawing comparison between destruction of an inanimate object and the murder of three generations of a Canadian family. Almost as if the driver of the truck ran over a park bench or, heaven forbid, a statue. He, obviously (I think?) doesn’t condone the murders, but he certainly didn’t say as much having provided himself the opportunity by bringing the news to us.

Sail Away is extremely careful with his words. He rarely comments with a typo, his vocabulary is very broad and he controls it commendably. It’s why we read his comments just as Garth’s word-smithing is why we read Garth’s posts. However, because of these attributes Sail Away’s word choices and omissions make it very clear what is going through his mind. When a write can paint a crisp picture with language, just as in art, the negative space tells as much of a story as the positive.

What wasn’t said reveals a crap-ton about what matters to him. At the most generous, it was more important to him to score rhetorical points here than to simply express condolences. At the least generous, a group of protesters tearing down a statue is on the same moral level as a racist, premeditated murder of four Muslims leaving a 9y.o. to deal with the event for life.

I respect you infinitely more than Sail Away. You, obviously, don’t have to take my advice. But, my advice is to not blindly lap up his milk. It’s not milk.

#10 Dave on 06.08.21 at 3:01 pm

Kelowna is brutally hot in the summer and often cloudy in the winter. It is barren and full of folks from Calgary.

#11 Billy Buoy on 06.08.21 at 3:01 pm

For those tin hat folks out there, let’s look at it this way…

The 2.1 TRILLION debt is owed to banks.

So if you ever felt the banks want to own everything, when things go south, viola there you have it.

So just perfect they have all the debt slaves right now where they want them..by the short and curlies within a few mm of foreclosing on most and owning it ALL.

Wages stagnant, demographics poor, inflation way up. Do the math and see the reality.

Conspiracy? It’s there in plain sight. Any chance JT got a little advice from the banks during this crisis? HA!

#12 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 3:02 pm

Crazy real estate but sort of off my radar since no selling or buying is planned for the foreseeable future.

Now, meme stocks: Yowza! This is fun. Every morning is like SA Christmas. My son has been joining as well. Being a bad influence has been a rewarding bonding experience. Highly recommended.

#13 VGRO and chill on 06.08.21 at 3:03 pm

Well, crap. My ex’s mom has a house in Kelowna.

Maybe I shouldn’t have ended that relationship after all.

#14 AM in MN on 06.08.21 at 3:04 pm

The last major tightening cycle by the Fed, to stop the 2006 bubble, was 17 consecutive hikes at 1/4 point, every meeting without a miss.

Try running the models with that scenario!

The money printing party will end tears for many, and in great wealth gain for others.

#15 Boomer on 06.08.21 at 3:05 pm

Oldest Boomers are 75.

When is that wave of Boomer vacancies scheduled to start?

#16 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 06.08.21 at 3:06 pm

“In summary: a disproportionate amount of the economy……”

So we can just raise housing prices indefinitely and borrow without worry.

All of a sudden “CRYPTO” doesn’t sound so fake anymore.

#17 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 3:09 pm

Faron, there’s some froth on your chin.

I’d wipe it off but can’t reach from my permanent residence in your head.

#18 Ballingsford on 06.08.21 at 3:14 pm

Solo takes a lovely picture! Those beautiful eyes!

#19 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 3:16 pm

Ponzie where the heck are ya?

Look at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCMwlorNEZk

Tom Macdonald, your fellow BC’er dropped a new one.

A million views in less than 24 hours, number 1 on Spotify in less than a day, and 1 million+ views per day on YouTube.

Not bad for a husband and wife team with a YouTube channel eh? 8 figure bank account thanks to dudes like Trump, Obama, and Trudeau. I think I missed my calling in life, I could have just been chillin’ :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0O0nzkESTI

#20 Millennial 1%er on 06.08.21 at 3:20 pm

What’s wrong garth? Don’t you know that housing goes up forever? Buy now or never! Go go go!

#21 Al Berta on 06.08.21 at 3:24 pm

#10 Dave on 06.08.21 at 3:01 pm

Kelowna is brutally hot in the summer and often cloudy in the winter. It is barren and full of folks from Calgary.

____________________________________________

Sorry, Dave… And your point was?
Right, your poo don’t smell and you hate red license plates!

#22 JSS on 06.08.21 at 3:26 pm

If interest rates go up, thereby increasing monthly mortgage payments upon renewal, can’t the Bank of Canada just increase the amortization to 35-40 years. This will then drop the monthly payments. After all, aren’t Canadians just interested in the monthly amount?

The CB has nothing to do with amortizations. – Garth

#23 JPN on 06.08.21 at 3:34 pm

# 10 Dave on Kelowna

We have wonderful lakes when its “brutally hot” Some of the best skiing in the world on a foggy winters day .. breaking through the clouds. (I should mention winters last on average 3 months) Baron ?? Have you seen our mountains or just the valley bottom ? You should spend some real time in the Okanagan Valley Dave .. you might just be surprised ..

#24 TurnerNation on 06.08.21 at 3:36 pm

Dolce – and so it begins the Communist Social Credit system. The country fell in only one year. It is not ending, It is the beginning.
Kanada does appear as a test zone for all this.

https://canucklaw.ca/cv-25e-canadian-government-seeking-bids-for-biometric-vaccine-passports-system-creation/

Manitoba unveils immunization cards for fully vaccinated people (winnipeg.ctvnews.ca)


— Let’s talk Bank Bail in Shares. Why were they created? The banks are fine, sound. Only one thing could topple them. A CYBER attack.

Looking south of us for some predictive programming. That Pipeline hack/shutdown. Now this:

‘Energy secretary says enemies are capable of shutting down US power grid’
https://nypost.com/2021/06/06/energy-secretary-enemies-are-capable-of-shutting-down-power-grid/

— If we lost power it would be mayhem. People would be confined to their homes, with checkpoints and curfews. OH you mean exactly like this year? Yep we are in training. Lockdowns.

No these social and economic lockdowns are not going away. Australia’s “rise” is 11 cases in a city of many millions?
Pundits quip “If cases drop, that is proof lockdowns work; if cases rise, that is proof lockdowns were needed”.

This all makes sense morso if you take Kanada, Australia as the Test Zones

.Melbourne couple yet to hug newborn son because of COVID rules in Queensland (9news.com.au)
.Australia’s Victoria reports biggest rise in COVID-19 cases in a week (reuters.com)
.Taiwan to extend Level 3 restrictions to June 28 (taiwannews.com.tw)
.Uganda re-imposes lockdown to beat back COVID-19 case surge (euronews.com)
.Ottawa set to approve NHL travel exemption that requires strict testing and hotel bubbles (cbc.ca)

This will drag on for years, thing 2022-23

Canada eyeing multi-stage approach to reopening the border to travellers (cbc.ca)

#25 NSNG on 06.08.21 at 3:44 pm

Now they want to cancel Canada day in order to mourn for the 215.

Garth may have to fire his rockets at them.

Also, these Ryerson professors who want the name changed. Should they be collecting pensions from this oppressive university? Isn’t that blood money? Maybe they should cancel their own pensions too or volunteer to pay them out to a reparations fund. Thought not.

#26 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 3:49 pm

I’ve never seen the appeal of Kelowna, it’s just a strip mall on the edge of a highway. It’s always depressingly overcast in the winter and too hot in the summer. Lots of homeless and gangs and druggies there too.

#27 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 3:49 pm

Apparently Vancouver wants to rename Trutch Street (same also for Victoria) because they want to erase the negative connotations associated with Joseph Trutch.

#28 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 3:51 pm

#25

Next they’ll want to cancel Canada.

#29 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 3:54 pm

Almost 4 million Americans quit their jobs in April:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/take-this-job-and-shove-it-american-workers-quit-at-record-levels-11623181051?mod=mw_latestnews

#30 willworkforpickles on 06.08.21 at 3:59 pm

Stealth tax and doublespeak.

So taxing the rich won’t cost the middle-class?
It will!

The rich always pass higher taxes on to the middle-class raising prices on everything costing themselves nothing.

A perfect storm for inflation is building factoring in the 6 trillion dollar man’s (Biden’s) budget proposal.

Country and society…. built on debt in the last decade now coupled with ever increasing runaway debt creation… and a decade of lies to top it off heading toward oblivion.

Rates… doubled in the next year….

…with borrow borrow borrow spend spend spend today …they’ll be quadrupled in three.
No way around it.

Worry about it…..Hell no…Never.

Its all good!
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Until it isn’t.

#31 Prince Polo on 06.08.21 at 4:05 pm

It is my sneaking suspicion than our dear Photo-op Minister won’t rest until housing is 100% of GDP…and the citizenry just laps it up like manna from the heavens.

#32 wallflower on 06.08.21 at 4:05 pm

yup it’s not just the young’uns
just learned that a couple my age bought property/house in nowhere’sville Ontariowe with mortgage – nobody my age should have a mortgage but to buy now? – they have almost no other assets (small her rrsp)

totally wow

#33 Dr V on 06.08.21 at 4:07 pm

142 NoName 146 IHCTD9

Just to be clear, my moniker is a satirical comment on the “Post-Secondary education industrial complex”. I hold no such degree in this field. If somebody should google the course, please realize I am not, and am not
intending to impersonate, the listed instructor.

Insane? Well, I’ll go with just plain crazy…..

#34 Aftred on 06.08.21 at 4:12 pm

Anybody who denies the Okanagan is a great place to live is making excuses. It had wonderful weather by Canada standards and a pretty robust service economy. And of course, the fresh produce.

But its also a dead town 11 months of the year except tourist season and pricey. A (slightly) colder, smaller Spokane.

#35 Retired in Kelowna on 06.08.21 at 4:21 pm

The house across the street from us here in Kelowna listed last week for $850K. Built in 1976. 3000 Sq Ft Nice view.
Sold in one day. Probably listed it lower that they could have and got more than listing price.

Oh ya. Dave #10 – there’s a reason people are flocking here. You might want to check a few things out here before shooting your mouth. This is a spectacular place to live.

#36 Dolce Vita on 06.08.21 at 4:24 pm

#24 TurnerNation

Biometric Vax Passport. Ya. Hell of an idea.

I have fingerprint logon on my phone and half the time I have to input the keycode instead. Do not have piano fingers.

Still the EU sticking to this Green Pass thing which is stupid since most countries have different requirements and are at different stages of Covid dying off.

Meanwhile, Canada is going to Science the heck out of a passport that nobody will probably recognize. Sounds about right for Canada.

#37 Dolce Vita on 06.08.21 at 4:33 pm

Garth.

I agree that RE in Canada as a % of GDP is not healthy.

Too much money being sopped up for RE, way too much.

That money could be put to better use in the economy such as investment in new business start-ups, business expansions, productivity improvement, cost cutting projects, new product development/research…the list goes on.

If this is what Cdns want I’m fine with it.

But don’t complain in a generation or earlier that the standard of living has deteriorated in Canada.

Look at your reflection in your Engineered Stone countertops and you will have your culprit.

#38 Tudval on 06.08.21 at 4:34 pm

So people choose to put more money into their castle (or a couple of rooms) because not much else is allowed or seems much fun. Better to invest in you little piece of paradise. But the government doesn’t like that either and every year comes up with more roadblocks. Unless you’re poor and cannot afford to buy… then they will go into business with you (some would call that reverse intelligence). If they go full bonkers and think of raising interest rates 8 times within the next 2 years (as “some predict” or more likely, just wish and pray), for which there would be no justification except “poking the RE ‘bubble'”, then they might just as well go ahead and cancel themselves now, before everybody else gets the idea.

#39 zxcvbnm on 06.08.21 at 4:35 pm

Faron’s comments always read like he/she/they is talking down to the reader. Faron is a teacher or a doctor, I’d bet. Know-it-all Lisa Simpson type. Not my favourite.

#40 Slim on 06.08.21 at 4:36 pm

Kelowna is over-rated as far as I’m concerned. It’s often touted as being Napa Valley North. But I guess it can seem like paradise to people east of the Rockies. The traffic is terrible. It seems everyone in the Okanagan suffers from road rage. Or maybe it’s just me.
Outside of Kelowna the scenery is stunning. Especially, as you head north towards Vernon.

#41 Faron on 06.08.21 at 4:37 pm

Hey Crowdie, did you pick up your copy of Willful Blindness yet? I’m just getting to the part describing the mechanisms of expropriation of yuan to Canada and the links to the BC Liberal Party. Not the best writing nor the most convincing evidence, but a good tale. If half of it is true, it’s damning.

#42 VladTor on 06.08.21 at 4:41 pm

Garth
1…let’s just sell each other houses!
2. So, who’s got this right? (Fannie Mae vs Nic Nanos)

***************

1. Thunderous applause turning into a standing ovation!

I laughed like a child, b’s I imagine big poster along Gardiner Express with this message “Let’s just sell each other houses!” and pretty lovely girl on it. Would be better instead stupid poster about finding reach parents

2. None of them! I read that month before RE crash in 2008 all analytics told that RE in USA is very very healthy.

#43 Faron on 06.08.21 at 4:43 pm

#39 zxcvbnm on 06.08.21 at 4:35 pm

Your words always read like the least useful row of the keyboard — See what I ~ did there

yours — qwerty

#44 Cto on 06.08.21 at 4:46 pm

22 JSS

If interest rates go up, thereby increasing monthly mortgage payments upon renewal, can’t the Bank of Canada just increase the amortization to 35-40 years. This will then drop the monthly payments. After all, aren’t Canadians just interested in the monthly amount?

The CB has nothing to do with amortizations, Garth

Ok …wrorg organization…but good point, JT will raise amort’s 50years, among the scores of other tactics…because to him, it’s all about monthlys as well. What does he care if families are hooked with 40 – 50 year mortgages.

Not Trudeau, either. Google, then write. Saves face. – Garth

#45 Penny Henny on 06.08.21 at 4:50 pm

I am waiting for an update from VREU (patiently I might add).
I love those charts!

#46 the jaguar on 06.08.21 at 4:51 pm

@ # 17 Sail Away…BillyBob has grown tired of it and you’re in the batters cage darling. Only if you want to stay there. My advice: don’t engage.

#47 VladTor on 06.08.21 at 4:54 pm

#25 NSNG
…Now they want to cancel Canada day in order to mourn for the 215.

********
Really! Nobody know why 215 was died. Investigation just started. Forensic investigation not release report. May be 215 died by illness I believe in this. Question is also for what period of time that happened. They represent situation in media that 215 was killed. Absolutely not possible in my opinion. Need to stop speculations about this right now and wait for official report.

By the way, an estimated 150,000 Indigenous children passed through the schools between their opening, around 1883, and their closing in 1996.

Compare numbers and turn on yours brain.

#48 Dolce Vita on 06.08.21 at 4:58 pm

Kelowna is nice but it is not a tourist mecca like some make it out to be.

Their wine is average at best and this from an Italian that made it for decades, traveled and sampled most wine growing areas in Europe long before Kelowna was even on a map.

They claim “microclimates” for all the varieties of grapes they grow.

Pity they don’t have “microsoils” from Toscana, Bordeaux, Bourgogne, Piemonte, Verona, etc.

It’s overrated esp. that snooty little winery they have on their West Bank on the promontory (trying to look Tuscan). Though, their Eiswein not bad but then again early frosts to be expected in Canada. It is however, ridiculously overpriced.

Too many don’t know dung from clay aficionados was my take.

——————

Still wide open spaces when you drive to Kelowna and it sits between 2 lakes with some very nice vistas.

Trying to mimic Europe…ahh, no. Celebrate your open spaces instead.

What Canada is all about and people marvel about.

#49 Penny Henny on 06.08.21 at 5:13 pm

#39 zxcvbnm on 06.08.21 at 4:35 pm
Faron’s comments always read like he/she/they is talking down to the reader.
//////////////

VALID STATEMENT.

//////////////

#43 Faron on 06.08.21 at 4:43 pm
#39 zxcvbnm on 06.08.21 at 4:35 pm

Your words always read like the least useful row of the keyboard — See what I ~ did there

yours — qwerty

///////////////

Faron reinforces point made in original statement.

Faron you’re a regular Dale Carnegie, except without the friends and influence.

#50 ogdoad on 06.08.21 at 5:15 pm

Values instilled in people across the country (and across many parts of the globe) seem to align when we speak about real-estate in Canada and the US. I have lived all over the world and the sentiment is the same. If you make the move to US/CAN then real-estate is front and foremost on their radar. In their home countries it is usually out of reach. Job filled cities in Canada are still cheaper than many populated cities across the globe.

For younger locals it is an entitlement. Where does this sentiment come from? External influences like (my fav) HGTV? Smiling and stimulating their way to the bank. Parents? Media? All of the above? How do you influence sentiment in younger generations without being on youtube, twitter, roblox, blah, blah, blah….we’re duped. Why else would you move to Kelowna. HA-HA. How can you tell your kids not to be interested in RE when you just made a bundle on your house? Rhetorical questions but the idea is the same.

You talk about reptilian, Garth. How many years has THAT been in the making ;).Lol!!

Great stats, as usual.

Og

#51 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 5:18 pm

#46 the jaguar on 06.08.21 at 4:51 pm

@ # 17 Sail Away…BillyBob has grown tired of it and you’re in the batters cage darling. Only if you want to stay there. My advice: don’t engage.

——-

Thanks Jag. We have chemically unbalanced nutbars near our office, too. We just stay vigilant and never leave car doors unlocked or car windows cracked (they’ve peed in them in the past), the courtyard gate closes at 4pm and the business ass’n has roving security patrols.

The unbalanced vitriol is quite something, though. Almost concerning. Easy enough to take action if it escalates.

#52 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 5:21 pm

I see the typical Kelowna attitudes from the locals on here.

#53 David Prokop on 06.08.21 at 5:23 pm

There have been over 100k sales in the GTA area in the past year. I think it’s safe to assume that except for those 100k who bought last year pretty much the rest of the homeowners are sitting on at least 30% capital gains. Wow, wealth creation at its finest.
Now take out those HELOCs and treat yourself.
Isn’t it what the government wants?

#54 Jake on 06.08.21 at 5:28 pm

Aside from Alberta, since the majority of this mortgage debt in Canada is full recourse, wouldn’t that keep Canucks in their homes til death to them part avoiding a 2008-09 type scenario here?

#55 Tudval on 06.08.21 at 5:34 pm

#47 VladTor Most children in residential school dies of disease. It’s been acknowledged in previous years by the same media that now is talking about ‘atrocities’ and would let you believe they were murdered. Lack of proper care may be, but what they write now just smacks of hidden agenda. I listened to testimonials and the worst thing I’ve heard are things like forcing children to take a shower, not allowing them to speak another language except the official one (or else they’d have to hold their tongue out between their fingers for minutes), being taken away from their home (which is what happens at every boarding school) etc… Anybody who read Oliver Twist gets a pretty good idea some of the boarding schools (including orphanages) were not the best places for kids.. depending what the alternative was also. Even stories I’ve heard from schools where parents paid small fortunes to give kids a “proper education”… they were not fun, like playing outside all day shooting arrows at small animals. Now I must admit that for native children it may have been particularly stressful because they never knew anything like this, whereas in Western culture such schools were commonplace.

#56 cuke and tomato picker e on 06.08.21 at 5:34 pm

I lived in the south Okanagan for 59 years and enjoyed it very much however now that we live in Central Saanich/
Sidney BC we are extremely happy to have retired here for the past 16 years. South Vancouver Island living
with its laid back life style gives us a feeling of well being.

#57 Citizen in Kelowna on 06.08.21 at 5:34 pm

Kelowna is lovely! It’s not all peaches and cream, but if you can show me a place that has 4 perfect seasons and lots to do and see and enjoy week after week, I’ll show you Kelowna.

If you don’t want to move here, then please don’t, none of us will mind :)

Very grateful to God to live here!

#58 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 5:38 pm

#5 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:44 pm

What the hell kind of music do you listen to? – Garth

——-

Heh. All kinds Mr. T, I’m probably the most non-denominational music fan you’ve ever met. If it’s good, it’s good. I got tuned into that particular song from the movie “Jar Heads”.

I like everything and anything, if I like it, it don’t matter anything else. Most of the artists I like aren’t anywhere near what I am personally as far as world-view goes, but good music is good music to me.

I like Judas-Priest even though Halford Came out as gay (most of us weren’t very shocked). Mozart, even though he had a weird scat humour thing, NWA and Public enemy even though I’m white. I like DMX even though he definitely did not like gays. I like Cash, Slayer, Muddy Waters, Combs, Hendrix, Straight, Nelson, Metallica, Eminem, Macdonald, Megadeth, and Beethoven. I freaking LOVE Handel, Rossini, Bach, Holst, Airbourne, AC/DC, Razor, Vivaldi, Tchaikovsky, Sousa, and Lightfoot.

There is a ton more, I am just not a genre based music fan. As a Gen X, I am a metal head at heart, which essentially predestined me to love Classical as well. But, I was raised on 70’s+ pop, and Country, so I like Denver, ABBA, Eddy, and classic rock of all kinds too.

On top of that, I picked up the guitar at age 16 (1989). That made me appreciate the work of Malmsteen, Vanhalen, Atkins, Vai, Satriani, Merle, and many more. From there as my musical interests moved from classic rock, to metal, to blues, classical, bluegrass, country, even banjo playing, cello, and violin work – I was exposed to all kinds of talent. I guess the talent is what I like most.

Here is one of my fav classical pieces for guitar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq8kKeMFfC0

Cello:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqOawrB4jwI

Bluegrass Guitar, “Texas Gales” bluegrass by Brian Sutton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG9Az8fOkeg

Good old country, by Darius Rucker:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpKFRP05Po4

Hick-hop, by Dexter, great vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X2Ixm-h6WI

Old school rap (NWA – so warning on this one, homies)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCAkHFavEdw

One of my all time fav’s regardless of genre: Rossi’s “The thieving Magpie” (La Gazza Ladra), I just freaking love Rossini:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJiiBq8UnIY

I could literally go on for infinity.

#59 joeey roos on 06.08.21 at 5:40 pm

Hey VladTor:

************
Really! Nobody know why 215 was died. Investigation just started. Forensic investigation not release report. May be 215 died by illness I believe in this. Question is also for what period of time that happened. They represent situation in media that 215 was killed. Absolutely not possible in my opinion. Need to stop speculations about this right now and wait for official report.

By the way, an estimated 150,000 Indigenous children passed through the schools between their opening, around 1883, and their closing in 1996.

Compare numbers and turn on yours brain.
************************************

You should turn on your heart.
Children.
Buried away from their families.
In unmarked graves.

Imagine your kid in a university in a different city. Maybe you get a letter (maybe you don’t) that says they died and buried out back somewhere.

Would the fact of 150,000 uni students make it ok?

#60 Blacksheep on 06.08.21 at 5:42 pm

https://www.areavibes.com/kelowna-bc/crime/

#61 Ed on 06.08.21 at 5:42 pm

Kelowna certainly earns the title “Surrey on the Lake”

Anything south of Westbank is much better…grew up in Oliver so I know.

#62 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 5:43 pm

Chipotle raises its menu prices by about 3.5% to 4% to cover the cost of higher wages for employees.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/08/business/chipotle-menu-prices/index.html?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon

#63 Blacksheep on 06.08.21 at 5:44 pm

Don’t forget the permanent cloud hanging over the lake…

#64 JPN on 06.08.21 at 5:47 pm

# 52 S.Bby

Those of us who know Kelowna will defend it .. Those who don’t .. well .. they get you ..

#65 Blacksheep on 06.08.21 at 5:58 pm

Its been 13 years since I sold my primary res, thinking RE was gonna crash like today’s US chart. But RE in Canada IS religion. People will do whatever it takes to keep it and I do mean, whatever. Plus the Gov has got your back, they came right out and said a 10% correction is unacceptable (ad-libbing)

Garth, your predictions of a flattening to modest reduction seems the most plausible. You poor souls, whom keep waiting for a crash have already been left, long behind.

#66 Reximus on 06.08.21 at 6:02 pm

#47 VladTor

You make it sound like these native kids were just sent by their parents to a bad summer camp, and only a small percentage wound up in unmarked graves.

Stephen King never came up with a more evil story than our ‘residential schools’

#67 Brad on 06.08.21 at 6:04 pm

Kelowna is a dump. Theres a reason its called the Cok-a-nogan.

#68 Faron on 06.08.21 at 6:11 pm

#49 Penny Henny on 06.08.21 at 5:13 pm

Darn Penny. I thought writing that (almost) without using the bottom row of letters in the keyboard was funny. Tough crowd.

In Science, tearing apart other people’s ideas to find the grains of truth is how the game works. The resulting tone is harsh.

#51 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 5:18 pm

I think my point was stated far more clearly than the dudes peeing in your Tesla’s windows would have, but I don’t know them, perhaps they are erudite vagrants. I have a strong thesis while you, as always, have name calling and 3rd rate dad jokes. Oh, and meme stonks.

You could just clarify your initial meaning in tossing out a juxtaposition of horriffic murder with statue vandalism. That could actually lead to useful discussion. That’s what I’m after here. My hunch is that you got caught out mistakenly and your ego won’t let you admit the mistake. It worked as a troll for you. You are bored. You enjoy it.

The Jaguar:

You seem to gravitate to this stuff no less than Sara does to Crowdie. Interesting.

#69 Cici on 06.08.21 at 6:21 pm

Yes, here in the Great White North… In RE and Crypto We Trust:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-side-money-keeping-workers-from-seeking-full-time-gigs-career-builder-ceo-152104326.html

#70 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:28 pm

#9 Faron on 06.08.21 at 3:00 pm
#154 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:05 pm

Because he is not saying what you claim he is saying.

Look at what you wrote in response to his comment. You expressed disgust at the act and sadness/concern for the murdered. i.e. a normal human response to an extremely sad, disgusting and tragic act.

Sail Away commented the news item seemingly as a means of drawing comparison between destruction of an inanimate object and the murder of three generations of a Canadian family. Almost as if the driver of the truck ran over a park bench or, heaven forbid, a statue. He, obviously (I think?) doesn’t condone the murders, but he certainly didn’t say as much having provided himself the opportunity by bringing the news to us.

Sail Away is extremely careful with his words. He rarely comments with a typo, his vocabulary is very broad and he controls it commendably. It’s why we read his comments just as Garth’s word-smithing is why we read Garth’s posts. However, because of these attributes Sail Away’s word choices and omissions make it very clear what is going through his mind. When a write can paint a crisp picture with language, just as in art, the negative space tells as much of a story as the positive.

What wasn’t said reveals a crap-ton about what matters to him. At the most generous, it was more important to him to score rhetorical points here than to simply express condolences. At the least generous, a group of protesters tearing down a statue is on the same moral level as a racist, premeditated murder of four Muslims leaving a 9y.o. to deal with the event for life.

I respect you infinitely more than Sail Away. You, obviously, don’t have to take my advice. But, my advice is to not blindly lap up his milk. It’s not milk.
—-

This was SA’s OP:

“#85 Sail Away on 06.07.21 at 8:22 pm
And in other news, also in Canada, also acting out a destructive ideology:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/story/canadian-family-killed-hit-and-run-targeted-muslim-police-1812119-2021-06-0”

I’m just not getting what you’re getting from it. I’d have to do way too many intellectual acrobatics to land in a place where SA is minimizing the damage of these killings based on what he wrote. Too much “filling in the blanks” for me.

If you have concerns, why not just ask SA for clarification rather than make a pile of assumptions?

#71 45north on 06.08.21 at 6:37 pm

In summary: a disproportionate amount of the economy as real estate… historic prices detached from incomes… frothy buyer sentiment and outsized expectations… record levels of personal and housing debt… teaser interest rates and equity take-outs… what could possibly go wrong?

the “go wrong” link shows the collapse of the US housing market from 2006 to 2008

but yesterday you said

Creeping rates will be but one more reason the parabolic real estate charts will flatten and eventually dip. No crash.

in the US charts did not flatten and eventually dip. They crashed. In Canada the run up is double what it was in the US. It’s the same herd dynamics – greed and fear.

I expect the same results.

The comment yesterday was about near-term expectations. No crash. Over the next few years of rate increases, much is possible. – Garth

#72 rknusa on 06.08.21 at 6:42 pm

#22 JSS on 06.08.21 at 3:26 pm
If interest rates go up, thereby increasing monthly mortgage payments upon renewal, can’t the Bank of Canada just increase the amortization to 35-40 years. This will then drop the monthly payments. After all, aren’t Canadians just interested in the monthly amount?

The CB has nothing to do with amortizations. – Garth

but maybe Justin does and he will do everything he can to prop up market from ordering CMHC to increase insured amortizations to 50 years if that is what it takes to reinstating mortgage deferrals if necessary

there is no way out of this mess, it will be around for 40 years

#73 Squire on 06.08.21 at 6:42 pm

Soon it will be more appealing to live in the USA. The future doesn’t look promising here. If I was in my 20’s I would be working on moving south. We began an downhill path with Pierre Sr.
Good luck Canada, you’ll need it.

#74 Faron on 06.08.21 at 6:43 pm

#158 Ustabe on 06.08.21 at 4:47 pm and KLNR
Faron, just stop feeding the resident trolls.

Excellent points and good insight w/re tone Ustabe.

#70 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:28 pm

I should have asked for clarification. You are right and opportunity missed. However he rarely, if ever, engages in good faith discussion and Iv’e been primed by various flippant comparisons between Canadian statue defacers and ISIL.

HAGE

#75 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:46 pm

#156 Faron on 06.08.21 at 2:12 pm
#144 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 12:39 pm

I’d rather get a PhD in GM SS 454 :)

You’d be better off getting a B.Sc. or M.Sc. and designing that engine or an improved version. Nobody gets a Ph.D. for the $$$$. Trust me.
—-

Too late for me on that, the old Mk.V BBC is already long gone. In fact, the very last iteration of this engine which debuted In 1970, resides in my ‘03 2500 HD, albeit as a 496 ci V8. It was discontinued in 05 iirc, and from there, you only had one option if you wanted to tow 5 figure loads – a diesel.

GM’s current 6.6 Duramax 6.6 diesel makes 445 HP, and 910 lb-ft of torque, all while delivering over 20 mpg hwy. I’m more than happy to let some other young engineer try and top those numbers…

#76 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:47 pm

#156 Faron on 06.08.21 at 2:12 pm
#144 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 12:39 pm

I’d rather get a PhD in GM SS 454 :)

You’d be better off getting a B.Sc. or M.Sc. and designing that engine or an improved version. Nobody gets a Ph.D. for the $$$$. Trust me.
—-

Too late for me on that, the old Mk.V BBC is already long gone. In fact, the very last iteration of this engine which debuted In 1970, resides in my ‘03 2500 HD, albeit as a 496 ci V8. It was discontinued in 05 iirc, and from there, you only had one option if you wanted to tow 5 figure loads – a diesel.

GM’s current Duramax 6.6 diesel makes 445 HP, and 910 lb-ft of torque, all while delivering over 20 mpg hwy. I’m more than happy to let some other young engineer try and top those numbers…

#77 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 6:48 pm

#64 JPN

I “know Kelowna” too so there goes your theory …

I know they also get triggered easily.

#78 fishman on 06.08.21 at 6:57 pm

#19 IHCTD9, One of the fisherman down here was in the local music scene. He hung with Tom Macdonald. At the time he told me Tom was the hardest working rapper in town. Apparently the same thing now he’s down in LA. Funny how guys that are driven & work at their passion harder than anyone else somehow get lucky.

#79 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.08.21 at 7:02 pm

24 CARAT GOLD!
Let’s take a trip down memory lane. If you are at least 50 years old you will no doubt have flash backs, nightmares, of the Dot.Com Bubble/Bust, Real Estate Bubble/Bust and the Stock Market Bubble/Bust. And let’s not forget the 1980’s, giddy Real Estate value runup. Black Monday 87, and the1990’s recession along with the subsequent gut wrenching Real Estate value declines. Drifting further back to the dinosaur age. I suggest you need to be in your 70’s to have also lived to see hyperinflation, followed by a brutal recession. I don’t think I am going too far out on the limb to predict a large number of the 35 to 45 year old crowd who have known only good times, never stopping to listen to Garth’s dog whistle warning of financial danger, will eventually be feeling the sting of the bankers belt. Not to discriminate , there will be those in the over 50 crowd who suffer from long- term memory loss, they too will be receiving their personal reminder of how things can turn sour. No longer will the tip of their index finger morph everything it touches into 24 carat gold. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

#80 45north on 06.08.21 at 7:11 pm

The comment yesterday was about near-term expectations. No crash. Over the next few years of rate increases, much is possible. – Garth

the Case-Shiller chart shows the crash occurred over three years – from January 2005 to January 2008.
If the same time frame is applied to Canada, it could occur over three years – say from January 2022 to January 2025.

scary

#81 Yukon Elvis on 06.08.21 at 7:11 pm

#67 Brad on 06.08.21 at 6:04 pm
Kelowna is a dump. Theres a reason its called the Cok-a-nogan.
……………….
In the summertime we call it The Smokanagan.
Very dry spring this year. Fire hazard is already scary.

#82 Rainman on 06.08.21 at 7:15 pm

Just to build a 3000SF home today you are looking at 1.2 million and that’s with out the land cost. Do the math, it is what it is. $400SF and that is nice, but not over the top in fixtures etc…

#83 pPrasseur on 06.08.21 at 7:17 pm

Canada’s surreal economy will crash, I have absolutely no doubt about that.

No idea when though. As Keynes said, “ the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

No point timing the markets, just invest in sound values to begin with.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 7:20 pm

@#41 Faron
“Hey Crowdie, did you pick up your copy of Willful Blindness yet?”

+++

Im saving that for later.
In the last two weeks I’ve gnawed my way through
The Bomber Mafia by Malcolm Gladwell.
The Hundred Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury.
Nuclear Folly by Serhii Plokhy
and
The Parasitic Mind by Gad Saad
All excellent in their own way.
Plus wading my way through my weekly Economist Mags while working on quotes for new work to keep the company running….
Last but not least….. keeping Sara amused with my inferior , non post secondary, stunted intellect.. by posting here.

I’m getting ready to read
The Light of Days by Judy Batalion and I have ordered
The Guns of August since it sounds like what we may be walking into with China over the next few years.
I’ll order Willful Blindness in a few weeks.

#85 Km on 06.08.21 at 7:26 pm

Living in the lower mainland the rents are astronomical and getting worse. There was a nice dip when they put in the empty housing tax as much more came on the market and during covid as people went back to their home countries . People who are buying second or third properties are just renting them to pay the mortgage advance anything under $3000 gets snapped up. Roaming FBM looking for a new place and people are leaving comments begging to rent places. So it could end badly or more realistically we are just going to have to come to terms with this being the new normal. Most will never own and rent will just suck up it all and most will also be working until they die to just pay for a rental over their heads. Not much in the way of getting ahead lately for the average middle class no matter how hard you work unless you own a house already . Pretty sad times in Canada. No wonder people are desperate to buy as it seems the only option to them as it has been on a 20 year run and does not seem to be at any turning point. If a pandemic couldn’t pop this bubble it is just here to stay.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 7:28 pm

@#67 Brad
“Kelowna is a dump. Theres a reason its called the Cok-a-nogan.”

+++

Yep.
Other than the Golf courses and the ski hills…..
With the Hell’s Angels and all the Billboards on the roads in and out of town remind me of …..
Surrey by the Lake

#87 Mattl on 06.08.21 at 7:40 pm

#77 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 6:48 pm
#64 JPN

I “know Kelowna” too so there goes your theory …

I know they also get triggered easily.

#88 Xhshsj on 06.08.21 at 7:43 pm

Me market doesn’t believe in a rate hike as one can see in the dollar movement. Fake news

#89 Reximus on 06.08.21 at 7:47 pm

Bitcoin down 40% in a month…nice ‘currency’ you got there

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 7:47 pm

@#59 Joey roos
“You should turn on your heart.
Children.
Buried away from their families.
In unmarked graves.”

+++

You mean like the orphan children from Ireland during the Irish Famine that died by the hundreds either on the trip on ships or when they arrived in Canada with TB ?
Quarantined and when they died….unmarked graves.

https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1953/9/1/the-nightmare-story-of-the-irish-flight-to-canada

There are hundreds, if not thousands of unmarked graves from one end of this country to the other.
Sad?
Absolutely.
Forgotten?
Inevitably.
Will it happen again during another pandemic?
Probably.

#91 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 7:47 pm

#61 Ed

Like Nanaimo: “Surrey by the Sea”

#92 Shirl Clarts on 06.08.21 at 7:58 pm

Solo is “so far” a wonderful dog?

Lewis, he’s thinking you are a wonderful human… So far!

#93 L3 on 06.08.21 at 7:58 pm

Borrow till you bleed… 2 trillion in housing debt?!?!?!

Seems like a plot for a scary movie or a zombie apocalypse

#94 DON on 06.08.21 at 8:02 pm

Who needs to make stuff anymore?
Instead, let’s just sell each other houses! Remember that huge 5.9% spike in annualized gross domestic product (GDP) we told you about recently? It was trumpeted as clear evidence the economy is roaring back to life as Covid crumbles. But then we heard 68,000 more people lost work in May, and now news that 3.9% of that GDP gain – or two-thirds of the economic pop – was due to residential real estate. Says Capital Economics: ““Residential investment now accounts for 10.3% of nominal GDP, which, strikingly, means it is a larger component than business investment.” Oh, snap

*****************

Oh snap is right

Add on of those jobs that are somewhat affected by a decline in the housing sector.

And approx 1/5 are owners are heavily indebted. Seems like a candidate for a wobbly economic pillar.

How long can people and relationships last while under financial distress?

We are currently striving to go back to the old normal even though the old normal wasn’t normal at the time. Reversion to the mean is one hellava roller coaster ride.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 8:04 pm

@#91 S.bby
“Like Nanaimo: “Surrey by the Sea””
++++
Bwahahaha.
I work with a gal born and raised from Nanaimo….she would agree with you 100%

#96 Steve French on 06.08.21 at 8:15 pm

Dear Sir Garth:

I’m hearing some chatter of a new global financial crisis, starting with a blow up in the derivatives market and then morphing into a world banking crisis, involving trillions of dollars up in smoke, all heading out way in the next few months.

How concerned should we be for a new financial black swan event.

Should we all just follow the late great Smoking Man’s advice, and live for today, pour a Johhny Walker, and head to the casino?

Thanks,

SteveO.

#97 Flop... on 06.08.21 at 8:18 pm

Now that I’m a low ranking government worker, I don’t comment much during the week as much as I used to.

Garth gave me a good deal on a weekend only subscription, and another bonus is I also avoid all the bored office worker drama the goes on here during the week.

I must ask for a hall pass, because I was flipping through the comments and I seem to be having trouble with the connection between my gesture of friendship to Garth by going to his Great Grandfathers grave and brushing the moss off, and all the other drama that has been happening the last few days.

Yours Respectfully.

Canada’s 7,067,844 person in charge…

M46BC

#98 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 8:20 pm

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 7:47 pm
@#59 Joey roos

“You should turn on your heart.
Children.
Buried away from their families.
In unmarked graves.”

———

You mean like the orphan children from Ireland during the Irish Famine that died by the hundreds either on the trip on ships or when they arrived in Canada with TB ?
Quarantined and when they died….unmarked graves.

———-

JR is trying for the moral high ground without the slightest clue about what happened.

One time I was hunting and came upon a badly wounded red fox that appeared to have been shot. I knocked it on the head and brought it back to camp, grumbling about the jackass hunter who would do this. Then while skinning it out, it became clear another animal had grabbed it by the neck and shaken it- probably a coyote or wolf.

Patience. We’ll know soon enough. No need to condemn anyone yet… although condemnation is indeed flying far and wide.

#99 VladTor on 06.08.21 at 8:22 pm

#55 Tudval
I read Oliver Twist. Moreover I have all Dickens books on my book shelf and read almost all of them. My favorite is about Mr. Pickwick club.
*********

#59 joeey roos
#66 Reximus

….native kids were just sent by their parents to a bad summer camp
************
Gentlemen’s too much emotions!

Too much emotion without understanding real situation.
They parents did very good thing. They children’s had everyday food and place for clean sleeping. Somebody care about them. They learned reading and writing and too many other subjects which help them after graduating to find his place among Canadians and find job. They became true citizens. They have opened opportunity for good life. Canada government did amazing job. If it was something wrong done – it was exception, not obvious practice.

What if they stayed with their parents in forest – they would stayed wild children of nature. Good for minority somebody, but not for 150000. You probably forgot – it was end of 19 century and 20 century. This schools helped them to adopt to modern life. Is that was bad?

Why nobody not talking about positive – only about negative.

How you know ? …..Buried away from their families.
May be they families was informed but they ignored to came and take body away.

How you know ? ….In unmarked graves.
May be it was marked initially.

And again, don’t do conclusion about why they was buried and about reason why they was died until investigation was finished.

#100 Wonderer on 06.08.21 at 8:31 pm

Garth, such a question: how would you deal with all this pandemic situation?
I am not a supporter of the libs, but I can understand why we are where we are. They tried to support the people through CERB and the businesses through loans. They needed the growth, because worse than the growth it’s the stagflation, economic recession and God forbid the deflation all together… They needed the growth.. so they inflated the houses that kept the builders and the renovators buys and the people hoarding the home depot like there’s no tomorrow. They’ve got a huuuuge amount of real estate transactions pumping the local budgets from the land transfer taxes and other kind of taxes.
What would you have done differently when you needed any kind of jobs and any kind of growth?
Then, if we are where we are now, why would we expect anything else but a continuous growth in house prices, until the next rate hike? And if, let’s say, the Bank of Canada policy makers in 2023 before the next rate hike, will see a slowing economy, do you really think they will proceed with hiking the rate?
To be honest, I am extremely curious to see your answer.
Thank you.

#101 kKelowna on 06.08.21 at 8:34 pm

I so wanted to love Kelowna when I visited for the first time. In my head I had already bought a place there.

So very disappointed. Dry. Brown. Dull. Where did all the trees go?

I hear Vernon might be nice, will try that next, but will probably end up somewhere around the Gulf Islands.

#102 kommykim on 06.08.21 at 8:46 pm

RE: What the hell kind of music do you listen to? – Garth

Your comment made me listen to that.
Listening to the entire thing was my own fault though.

#103 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 8:53 pm

#70 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:28 pm
#9 Faron on 06.08.21 at 3:00 pm
#154 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:05 pm

Because he is not saying what you claim he is saying.

———

Thanks IH.

Nobody is as adept at F in turning a bland comment into a false equivalency about an injustice near and dear to his revolutionary heart, which is then fabricated into a fully fleshed-out strawman of ultimate evil deserving complete annihilation with great vengeance and furious anger.

While everyone else blinks and says ‘huh? Is that guy ok?’

#104 a_concerned_person on 06.08.21 at 9:08 pm

Inflated home prices are making it hard to attract tech talent to our company . Irony is if you, the government, sincerely want to make a push/policy for a new green economy , then you need to attract the talent to do it . Propping up , boosting the housing sector indirectly is defeating this. Final note – if low interest rates were an emergency measure, in equal measure couldn’t they have had some coordinated actions between different govt. agencies as an emergency measure. I guess this would have taken too much effort; was too much of a complex system to manage.

#105 Reximus on 06.08.21 at 9:19 pm

Pretty sure Garth is playing VladTor….am I wrong?

#106 JPN on 06.08.21 at 9:34 pm

# 77 S.SBy

My theory is correct.. your just wrong.. deal with it.

#107 Dr V (not really a doctor) on 06.08.21 at 9:53 pm

IHCTD9 – I’ll see your Beethoven (love the guy), Rossini and Muddy, and raise you a Bowie, Buddy (Rich), Schumann and an Allison Krauss. Genius certainly comes in all genres.

#108 VladTor on 06.08.21 at 9:54 pm

#105 Reximus

Pretty sure Garth is playing VladTor….am I wrong?

***********
You made me laugh!

You are wrong!

evidence: Garth don’t know Russian.

same “You are wrong!” in Russian:
Вы неправы!

And one more precise evidence – in case if Garth disagree with my message – he delete my message. You can see it here.

Of course, he can delete himself as VladTor to maintain secrecy.

I don’t know. You confused me – what if I’m Garth? Who is in that case Garth? Vladtor? Who is in that case VladTor? And where we are – forth dimension?

#109 Dr V (never admitted to medical school) on 06.08.21 at 9:55 pm

103 SA – you phrased that very well.

#110 Yukon Elvis on 06.08.21 at 10:06 pm

#101 kKelowna on 06.08.21 at 8:34 pm
I so wanted to love Kelowna when I visited for the first time. In my head I had already bought a place there.

So very disappointed. Dry. Brown. Dull. Where did all the trees go?

I hear Vernon might be nice, will try that next, but will probably end up somewhere around the Gulf Islands.
…………..
I live in Kelowna. Vernon is worse in my opinion. Summerland is very nice imho, 40 min to KGH and about an hour to YLW. The rest of the Okanagan isn’t much. Salmon Arm and Sicamous are nice too.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.21 at 10:08 pm

@#97 Floppie
“Now that I’m a low ranking government worker…”

+++

There is no such thing as a low ranking govt. worker Mr Flop.
Perhaps low paid ( for now) but eventually that will change.
No no.
Your power is absolute in govt.
Once you swallow the red pill and have achieved full time status
You can ignore customers or your assigned job….with impunity.
You can take time off for “stress” with impunity.
You can be whatever you want to be with impunity.
And after 25 years( you’re in your 40’s) ….. draw a guaranteed, taxpayer subsidized……pension…with impunity.

You have made it.
Grab that ring and hold on tight.

#112 Home sweet homeless on 06.08.21 at 11:02 pm

#26 S.Bby on 06.08.21 at 3:49 pm

I’ve never seen the appeal of Kelowna, it’s just a strip mall on the edge of a highway. It’s always depressingly overcast in the winter and too hot in the summer. Lots of homeless and gangs and druggies there too

______________________
I’m truly sorry you missed your chance to buy a piece of Kelowna when you could. That would suck, I get it. I feel for you. Not everyone has the foresight…

Yes, there is shopping along the highway but doesn’t everywhere have that? That’s not where people live.

Perhaps I should send you some pics of what a typical day entails.

Winters… I’ve lived all over Canada, 6 provinces. Best winters anywhere. Great local skiing. Sure it does get overcast but a quick month or two in Mexico fixes that real quick.

Unfortunately, homelessness occurs here too. Hey, if I was homeless, I’d sure choose here to live. Beats Saskatoon or winterpeg…

Sorry… Remind me again the point you were trying to make!

#113 Ronaldo on 06.08.21 at 11:40 pm

#15 Boomer on 06.08.21 at 3:05 pm
Oldest Boomers are 75.

When is that wave of Boomer vacancies scheduled to start?
——————————————————————-
Give it another 10 years.

#114 Aftblood on 06.08.21 at 11:52 pm

#101 kKelowna

All the trees burned in a fire a decade or so ago. The rest were chewed up by the pine beetle.

#115 Faron on 06.09.21 at 1:10 am

#103 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 8:53 pm

Tell yourself whatever fiction you need to bud. I’m far from the first here to note your tendencies.

W/re residential school kids: at least your analogy of animals dying of unknown causes is on point: first nations people were treated like animals back then. That view was mainstream. This happened in what passed for a town at that time. Excess disease or death of any cause over the base mortality rate is unacceptable and reveals neglect. Failing to document those deaths is utterly inexcusable if that proves to be the case. As for conditions, we can just ask what people who attended the schools went through. Hint: no bueno. Disease: yes, rape: yes, physical abuse: yes, starvation: yes. And that was in recent times. Boggles the mind that you are equivocating here in case some magical evidence shows up indicating that they died of the lord’s ecstatic gifts. Certainly doesn’t surprise though.

No, these aren’t pet injustices of mine. Rather, I’m capable of watching a circus unfold and recognizing the clowns.

#116 CaribooCharlie on 06.09.21 at 2:11 am

to VladTor: you do not have a clue about the residential schools. The Indigenous parents did not ‘do a good thing’ by sending their children. They DIDN’T send their children; the government in its shame decreed children had to go, against the will of their parents. They were kidnapped. There was an expressed desire by govt and residential schools to ‘kill the Indian in the child’. These families experienced multi-generational trauma from the abuse that happened at these schools. These children were shamed, taunted, beaten and abused in a disgusting effort to take away their family, their culture, their language, their freedom, and their innocence. Boarding school? Only if it was run by Satan in the depths of hell.

#117 the Jaguar on 06.09.21 at 7:12 am

Snippet from the morning paper on the WFH / return to office debate:

As long as there has been work, being sent to the “minors” or the satellite office has been recognized as deleterious. It is no different because an employee is exiled virtually instead of physically.

After all, who is more likely to get promoted? An individual who has developed a personal relationship with their superior? Or an employee who, at best, is seen occasionally online at predetermined times?

Likewise, when it comes time to cut staff, who is going to be retained? Employees are constantly surprised when relationships trump merit in promotion and dismissal discussions.

If you need more proof of this, we were at the tailor’s last week, in the heart of Toronto’s financial district, to purchase a couple of sports jackets. We discussed who was buying clothes to return to the office and his response was all the “high-ups” or “important” people were anxious to get back to their office. He obviously felt those who were not anxious to get back to their offices were not “high-up” or “important.”

#118 the Jaguar on 06.09.21 at 7:13 am

oops – full article -Howard Levitt/Peter Carey. NP

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.09.21 at 8:05 am

@#113 Ronaldo
“Give it another 10 years.”

++++

Judging from the amount of job vacancies that are sprouting up everywhere……
I’d say it’s already started.

#120 Sail Away on 06.09.21 at 8:23 am

#115 Faron on 06.09.21 at 1:10 am
#103 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 8:53 pm

Tell yourself whatever fiction you need to bud. I’m far from the first here to note your tendencies.

No, these aren’t pet injustices of mine. Rather, I’m capable of watching a circus unfold and recognizing the clowns.

———

Huh? Are you ok?

#121 Dharma Bum on 06.09.21 at 8:38 am

I love the housing boom.

It fits my bummy lifestyle of sloth and laziness, while endlessly boosting my net worth and borrowing power.

The less I do, the more I make.

Wu Wei, man.

#122 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 9:13 am

#116 CaribooCharlie

I’m not sure that situation in this schools was so dramatically like you described it. Of course single cases was. Sure it wasn’t total practice.

If I understand you would prefer that kids stayed uneducated and in forests only b’s uneducated parents didn’t want to send them to school.

It wasn’t kidnapping! Or, OK – it was kidnapping with goal to gave children education and than return them back to forests, if they want to do it.

After school they have a freedom – return to forests or stayed in civilization.

What they did? How do you think?

#123 TurnerNation on 06.09.21 at 9:26 am

Air Canada stock up big yesterday. I see 3 days on Twitter someone posted that they are recalling over 800 flight attendants. Wish I’d seen it then


– 4 more weeks! More like 2022-2023.
Boy that Bat, Wet Market thing didn’t age well did it?

The #1 goal of the New System – rolled out that cold winter week March 2020 – is control over our Travel/Movements.
15 months into this has anything gone back?

.Sunak could accept four-week delay to ending Covid restrictions in England (theguardian.com)
.Jacinda Ardern says Melbourne family caught breaching travel bubble rules are facing ‘consequences’ (abc.net.au)

–Bats/Wet markets again:

.Vaccination passports available to Manitobans after second shot (winnipegsun.com)
.The Highly Contagious Delta Variant Is On The Rise In the U.S(npr.org)
.Azim premji University report : the pandemic , lockdown has pushed 230 million Indians below the poverty line(timesnownews.com)


– We follow the Science.

.Doug Ford says London can ease restrictions to allow gathering at vigil for London attack(globalnews.ca)

#124 Love_The_Cottage on 06.09.21 at 10:18 am

#117 the Jaguar on 06.09.21 at 7:12 am
After all, who is more likely to get promoted? An individual who has developed a personal relationship with their superior? Or an employee who, at best, is seen occasionally online at predetermined times?
_______
Here’s a novel ideal. How about the person who is doing the best job? For many jobs there are stats available.

I wonder which companies will do better? Those who promote based on just showing up in the office, or those who base remuneration based on performance?

#125 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 10:52 am

#107 Dr V (not really a doctor) on 06.08.21 at 9:53 pm
IHCTD9 – I’ll see your Beethoven (love the guy), Rossini and Muddy, and raise you a Bowie, Buddy (Rich), Schumann and an Allison Krauss. Genius certainly comes in all genres.
———-

YouTube is just awesome for music. Prior to the net, I’d never have had access to all this. My appreciation of all kinds of music has grown exponentially over the last 15 years! Now I see a big surge in independent artists who are forging ahead without a label, MacDonald being one, the entire “hick-hop” genre is pretty much independent.

You got that right about musical genius – it’s all over the place, right across the spectrum.

#126 DON on 06.09.21 at 11:01 am

#122 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 9:13 am
#116 CaribooCharlie

I’m not sure that situation in this schools was so dramatically like you described it. Of course single cases was. Sure it wasn’t total practice.

If I understand you would prefer that kids stayed uneducated and in forests only b’s uneducated parents didn’t want to send them to school.

It wasn’t kidnapping! Or, OK – it was kidnapping with goal to gave children education and than return them back to forests, if they want to do it.

After school they have a freedom – return to forests or stayed in civilization.

What they did? How do you think?

*************************

If you are not sure’ the logical approach would be to do your research before you happy path through the crisis. The last residential school in BC shut down in the 1990s.

Now if someone tried this with my children….

The point is they were children striped of the right to live with their families.

They were defenseless children.

The things peie do in the name of religion.

#127 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 11:01 am

#103 Sail Away on 06.08.21 at 8:53 pm
#70 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 6:28 pm
#9 Faron on 06.08.21 at 3:00 pm
#154 IHCTD9 on 06.08.21 at 2:05 pm

Because he is not saying what you claim he is saying.

———

Thanks IH.

Nobody is as adept at F in turning a bland comment into a false equivalency about an injustice near and dear to his revolutionary heart, which is then fabricated into a fully fleshed-out strawman of ultimate evil deserving complete annihilation with great vengeance and furious anger.

While everyone else blinks and says ‘huh? Is that guy ok?’
——

I got nothing against F, but there are days when I have a very hard time believing he is a 50 something Professor with a PhD.

#128 DON on 06.09.21 at 11:06 am

#122 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 9:13 am
#116 CaribooCharlie

I’m not sure that situation in this schools was so dramatically like you described it. Of course single cases was. Sure it wasn’t total practice.

If I understand you would prefer that kids stayed uneducated and in forests only b’s uneducated parents didn’t want to send them to school.

It wasn’t kidnapping! Or, OK – it was kidnapping with goal to gave children education and than return them back to forests, if they want to do it.

After school they have a freedom – return to forests or stayed in civilization.

What they did? How do you think?

*************************

If you are not ‘sure’ the logical approach would be to do your research before you happy path through the issue. The last residential school in BC shut down in the 1990s.

Now if someone tried this with my (our) children….

The point is they were children stripped of the right to live with their families and carry on in there own beliefs.

They were defenseless children.

The things people do in the name of religion.

#129 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 11:18 am

#78 fishman on 06.08.21 at 6:57 pm
#19 IHCTD9, One of the fisherman down here was in the local music scene. He hung with Tom Macdonald. At the time he told me Tom was the hardest working rapper in town. Apparently the same thing now he’s down in LA. Funny how guys that are driven & work at their passion harder than anyone else somehow get lucky.
——

Yeah, the harder he works, the luckier he seems to get! TM (and his wife Nova) must work 24/7 to put out the volume and quality that they do. TM is way too good to not go mainstream, but I don’t know if “mainstream” is the future. Either way, he became a millionaire in a short period of time, just from his YT channel, and he still seems to be on an upward trajectory.

That’s cool that you have a distant connection!

#130 Quintilian on 06.09.21 at 11:26 am

David Lereah(RE economists) wrote a book why real estate always goes up.

Just before the big bust.

The reasons given as to why RE always goes up sound as they were hatched in Kelowna.

Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust – And How You Can Profit from It
How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market
Author
David Lereah

#131 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 11:32 am

#126 DON

Don, You doing big mistake transferring situation on yours kids. You educated, smart, yours kids have good food…. good clothes… . You can gave them good education sending them in school…. university.

It was COMPLITELY different situation. You should understand that. Advantages which received those kids being in those school 1000 times better than disadvantages. What parents could give those kids in forests compare with school?

Modern generation of those kids have RE, they graduated from colleges/universities, have profession and good job. They even can block railway and talk to sheriff without using gun.

Following you third generation of them probably would still be in forests …. with they parents third generation.

#132 Ronaldo on 06.09.21 at 11:34 am

#128 DON on 06.09.21 at 11:06 am
#122 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 9:13 am
#116 CaribooCharlie

I’m not sure that situation in this schools was so dramatically like you described it. Of course single cases was. Sure it wasn’t total practice.

If I understand you would prefer that kids stayed uneducated and in forests only b’s uneducated parents didn’t want to send them to school.

It wasn’t kidnapping! Or, OK – it was kidnapping with goal to gave children education and than return them back to forests, if they want to do it.

After school they have a freedom – return to forests or stayed in civilization.

What they did? How do you think?

*************************

If you are not ‘sure’ the logical approach would be to do your research before you happy path through the issue. The last residential school in BC shut down in the 1990s.

Now if someone tried this with my (our) children….

The point is they were children stripped of the right to live with their families and carry on in there own beliefs.

They were defenseless children.

The things people do in the name of religion.
————————————————————–
Exactly Don.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/checkup/what-conversations-are-you-having-with-family-and-friends-about-the-kamloops-grave-discovery-1.6054089/teaching-residential-school-history-must-improve-to-prevent-another-generation-of-ignorant-deniers-educator-1.6055002

#133 Tom from Mississauga on 06.09.21 at 11:43 am

With building of massive 4-5000 s/f rural properties for a near retirement, empty nest, couples how on earth will we ever meet Paris Agreement goals? In Halliburton now people are getting twin propane tanks to stay toasty all winter.

#134 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 11:44 am

#102 kommykim on 06.08.21 at 8:46 pm
RE: What the hell kind of music do you listen to? – Garth

Your comment made me listen to that.
Listening to the entire thing was my own fault though.
— ——

Oh… but it gets *so* much worse. :)

A solid 30% of the stuff I listened to as a youth, I wouldn’t even try to post. Garth would take one look and delete the crap out of it.

#135 Sail Away on 06.09.21 at 11:59 am

#127 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 11:01 am

I got nothing against F, but there are days when I have a very hard time believing he is a 50 something Professor with a PhD.

———

I don’t have a lot of time for the: ‘I want a *###* explanation, right *###* NOW!’, when the explanation demanded is entirely based on a fabricated premise. Intellectually dishonest.

#136 Wrk.dover on 06.09.21 at 12:16 pm

#125 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 10:52 am

YouTube is just awesome for music.

___________________________

Once upon a time, there wasn’t even FM radio!

CFNY, the spirit of radio, was the pioneer of not mainstream. Broadcast from Brampton in the day.

David Marsden, now there was a DJ!

#137 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 12:16 pm

to #132 Ronaldo

*************

Corrupt journalists seek out a sensation by sticking out only negative.

Can you find for me interview with somebody who will tell “Thank you” to those school for give opportunity for best life giving me education. School passed almost 150000 kids. You probably very easy to find interview and we compare. OK?

#138 Faron on 06.09.21 at 12:19 pm

#132 Ronaldo on 06.09.21 at 11:34 am
#128 DON on 06.09.21 at 11:06 am
#122 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 9:13 am
#116 CaribooCharlie

Yeah, there’s all kinds of evidence that the residential schools were horrible places. The well documented facts are that

(1) children were removed against their family’s will.
(2) conditions in the schools were horrible
(3) excess disease doesn’t excuse the deaths
(4) 215 of about 265 deaths were apparently undocumented
(5) The bodies were placed in graves that were only found through advanced technology. Unmarked unless the markings were removed which is also inexcusable.

Equivocation on the issue is willful blindness.

(1) through (3) are generalized and therefore conjecture. (4) is unknown since records have not been released. (5) Did the TRC not note the existence of such cemeteries? Maybe we should all shut up until facts are available. Or we can just trash a statue if that’s too much to ask. – Garth

#139 Stoph on 06.09.21 at 12:29 pm

@ VladTor

The proof is in the pudding when it comes to residential schools. If the ‘education’ the kids got was as benevolent as you suggest, we wouldn’t have had fallout that we see.

#140 DON on 06.09.21 at 12:41 pm

#131 VladTor on 06.09.21 at 11:32 am
#126 DON

Don, You doing big mistake transferring situation on yours kids. You educated, smart, yours kids have good food…. good clothes… . You can gave them good education sending them in school…. university.

It was COMPLITELY different situation. You should understand that. Advantages which received those kids being in those school 1000 times better than disadvantages. What parents could give those kids in forests compare with school?

Modern generation of those kids have RE, they graduated from colleges/universities, have profession and good job. They even can block railway and talk to sheriff without using gun.

Following you third generation of them probably would still be in forests …. with they parents third generation.

*******************

I was not seperated from my family and put into a residential school so yes I had an advantage and so do my kids.

What is wrong with living in the forest…it worked for thousands of years as they lived on their own real estate. Just because they didn’t have stinky cities with open sewers doesn’t mean they were not civilized and doing well for themselves. They were stewards of the land.

Even those the did well and got good jobs are still dealing wirh the trauma of losing those years being taught and nutured by family members.

#141 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 12:56 pm

#136 Wrk.dover on 06.09.21 at 12:16 pm
#125 IHCTD9 on 06.09.21 at 10:52 am

YouTube is just awesome for music.

___________________________

Once upon a time, there wasn’t even FM radio!

CFNY, the spirit of radio, was the pioneer of not mainstream. Broadcast from Brampton in the day.

David Marsden, now there was a DJ!
——-

Ha, I showed up just in time to remember the demise of the 8-track. I remember am only radios in old cars, but FM was available if you had the “technology” :)

Looking back from where we are now, it seems like the dark ages. One ISP, and every bit of information, global communication, and entertainment you could ask for is in your hands for essentially free. I’ve been surfing the net for almost 25 years, and it still never fails to amaze and impress me!

#142 CaribooCharlie on 06.09.21 at 1:31 pm

VladTor: I worked with Indigenous people who experienced residential school. It was heartbreaking . You perhaps need to expand your knowledge beyond a cliche western movie cowboys vs Indians framework. Envision another culture overtaking your homeland. Deciding your values and way of life are useless and theirs are better. Banging on your door and taking your children, as young as 4. Making it law that you had to turn them over. Brutally punishing kids for speaking their own language. First hand accounts of rapes, beatings and emotional and psychological abuse are available by the hundreds. Parents were emotionally broken with the loss and abuse of their kids. Are you telling me that you believe if wherever you live right now was invaded and overtaken, you’d be onbard with all the kids in your community being treated with severe abuse and locked up away from their homes for years? You aren’t going to find ‘thank you’s’ for that.