Shades

Well, we told ya. Follow the money.

Thursday was epic. Three of the Big 6 banks confirmed what must be obvious to everyone, save the doomers, nihilists, pantywaists and GOFs (grump old farts) who live in the nether regions of this blog. What did we learn?

First, the pandemic is over. At least on Bay Street. Done. Finished. A spent force. Second, the economic carnage caused by the slimy little pathogen was just a sliver of what had been expected. Third, GDP, inflation, interest rates, employment and spending are all poised to rise. Fourth, you should stay invested. This could be quite the ride.

For the record, these three banks alone earned profits of almost $9.5 billion in three months. That’s the headline story, with RBC bringing in four billion (up 171%), TD earning $3.7 billion (ahead 144%) and the Commerce adding $1.7 billion (compared with just $392 million last year – wow).

The bigger story was about damage. Covid may have had a head-on collision with government, spewing guts and bent metal everywhere, but for the larger economy this was a mere fender-bender. Loan loss provisions have been slashed by all four banks reporting so far, as we told you would be the case. The Royal had booked almost three billion for bad debt, which has now been reversed. At CIBC cash set aside for bum borrowings has been reduced 98%. And for TD the better part of $400 million in bad-debt money is now reclaimed.

The banks have bags of cash on hand, robust mortgage books, improved credit conditions and have plumped their bottom lines with a serious reduction in branch overhead as Covid-induced online banking becomes the norm. Fat, healthy banks presage growth and expansion. It’s a classic pattern, coming after crisis and contraction. If you saw this emerging last March, you were a visionary. Or maybe you just read this blog.

During the third week of March, 2020, markets crashed. All of the Trump-era gains were wiped away. Panic selling ensued as Covid cases topped 200,000 worldwide and this blog was rife with comments forecasting oblivion.

“So are we headed for a depression?” I then asked. And responded…

“The answer is no. Over the coming days trillions of dollars will be announced and spent by governments as they pay laid-off workers, subsidize airlines, pump liquidity into the banking system, slash borrowing costs, forgive indebtedness and backstop corporations. Logic tells us pandemics are temporary. They come, wreak havoc, peak then pass. An economy that was firing on all cylinders in January and collapses in March can be functioning again in June. And in advance of that, financial markets will advance. They always do. Stocks are a leading indicator. Oh, life (and markets) aren’t going back to normal any time soon, but neither are they going to zero. Nor are we destined to re-live the Dirty Thirties. But you will never forget 2020.”

Ten days later Ryan wrote:

“Given all the uncertainty right now the markets are pricing in a protracted recession and that we’ll all be locked in our homes indefinitely, when in fact by Q4 and into early 2021, economic growth could be rebounding and potentially strongly. I believe we’re getting close to the panic/capitulation/depression stage. And this is when markets typically bottom, providing the best opportunities and future returns.”

That, as you now know, is exactly what happened. Investors who ignored the pandemic’s onslaught saw their assets restored, then soar. Those who bucked convention and scooped the lows were rewarded. Once again, it wasn’t ‘different this time’.

This week bankers crushed it – profits are swelling, loan losses are a mere pimple and you’ll have to wear shades for Q3 and Q4.

$      $      $

The pandemic slashed immigration to Canada by about two-thirds. But the virus also saw real estate bloat as never before. Sales and prices have hit record highs lately. Everywhere. This has all made a mockery of those who blamed foreign buyers for pushing up housing costs to the point where Canadians could not compete. It was a sham before Covid, and it’s a fact now. Shame on those realtors and scummy politicians (like BC’s David Eby) who have forged a career out of xenophobic opportunism.

But, it’s started again. So let’s review CMHC’s new report, “The 2020 Condominium Apartment Survey,” published a few days ago. “The share of non-resident ownership in condominium apartments remains low and stable,” it concludes. And most of these units are rented out to locals.

“Non-resident ownership is concentrated in the secondary rental market. These units mainly consist of condominium owners who rent out their properties in these cities. Both CMHC and Statistics Canada’s results suggest that within the secondary rental market, non-resident ownership is likely concentrated in newer and larger rental buildings that generally command higher market rents.”

That makes sense. And let’s remember almost 20% of all families living in Toronto, for example, own secondary properties, most often rental condos. As for foreign ownership levels, here are the four markets with the greatest concentration:

  • Toronto – 2.6%
  • Montreal – 1.8%
  • Vancouver – 1.3%
  • Halifax – 1.3%.

It’s time to find something else to blame.

About the picture: “Thank you for all you do, your blog is a daily read for 3 generations (my parents, my husband and I, and our two sons).,” writes Sherilyn (who is married to a professional CFLer). “It has provided us with great advice and interesting discussion fodder around the dinner table! This photo is of our loveable grand dog while accompanying his dad on his “hometown day with the Grey Cup” following his teams’ winning a few years ago. We often comment on this pooch’s contemplative soul and the photo seems to capture it well. I wonder what he was thinking about? Thank you again, Garth, please keep on blogging!”

133 comments ↓

#1 Wrk.dover on 05.27.21 at 1:09 pm

The pandemic is for sure over because the air in SW NS (aka America’s smoke stack) is gross again.

Blue sky was nice while it lasted.

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.27.21 at 1:11 pm

The dog was wondering why the food bowl was so tall…..

#3 Honest Realtor on 05.27.21 at 1:14 pm

Garth, I could not have said it better!

Hold on everyone – we are in for an epic multi-year boom in real estate values. Pushed ahead by the economic recovery and big surges in immigration.

Anyone buying Canadian property from now til at least 2030 will be rewarded greatly for their initiative in short order.

Welcome to The Roaring 20’s and Beyond!

Don’t miss out!

None of which I said. But I did mention scuzzy realtors. – Garth

#4 ogdoad on 05.27.21 at 1:19 pm

Jeesh! Almost 10B in 3 months?

Never mind med school kids. Banks are where it’s AT!

Og

#5 Eco Capitalist on 05.27.21 at 1:25 pm

At least part of the reason why the banks didn’t have to endure losses is because the government ran up massive debt trying to keep Canadians afloat.

While my portfolio certainly benefited from this situation, it’s a good example of privatizing the profits and socializing the losses (you have mentioned many times the tax increases we’re going to face to cover this).

Our capitalism is badly broken.

#6 Millennial 1%er on 05.27.21 at 1:25 pm

Maybe instead of becoming a computer programmer I should have become a big bank board member. Seems like it pays better

#7 A Dog's Purpose on 05.27.21 at 1:30 pm

Garth, many of your blog dogs love to let everyone know how fortunate they are as a result of the success of their investments, purport how magnanimous they are during these recent times and espouse at length about their love for their four legged friends.

Why don’t you challenge them where they can check off all three of these boxes?

Charitable donations to the Lion’s Foundation of Canada Dog Guides

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.dogguides.com/FAQ.html&ved=2ahUKEwigqYeSrOrwAhWVJTQIHXJsCjgQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw2ZWIlLP7kE4y6uP2s5iX-w

A dog costs about $25K to train in one of the following seven areas.

Canine Vision for people who are blind or visually impaired
Hearing for people who are deaf or hard of hearing
Autism Assistance for children who have autism spectrum disorder
Service for people who have a physical or medical disability
Seizure Response for people who have epilepsy
Diabetic Alert for people who have diabetes with hypoglycemic unawareness
Facility Support for professional agencies assisting individuals in traumatic situations

I am in no way affiliated with this organization.

If you can raise this amount from one or more of your bloggers, I will match it.

Let’s see just how altruistic your steerage section really is….

All you have to do is take care of the administration such as gathering names and amounts of donations.
You can put your name on it at the end for recognition of your efforts for coordinating this effort.

Game on?

#8 Bob on 05.27.21 at 1:32 pm

I’m still not convinced by the resident/non-resident numbers. What I’d really like is a nice pie chart showing exactly where the money flowing into Canadian real estate comes from. What percentage is from savings? What percentage from the bank of Mom and Dad? I can’t be the only one interesting in this, so why is it so hard to find? Is this data unavailable?

Facts are so disappointing, aren’t they? – Garth

#9 Faron on 05.27.21 at 1:33 pm

#92 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 11:18 am
#88 Faron on 05.27.21 at 10:55 am

Aww, your poor ego getting a little smushed? Maybe GEO is a buy at current pricing? Or maybe it will continue to get reamed like an inmate at one of its prisons. I’ll take Garth’s advice:

No crypto. No gold. No weed. No single stocks. No Elon. No NFTs.

Except for the $200 gamble on Eth, The idiotic gold Wealthsimple insists on, and whatever TESLike garbage is in an index ETF.

#10 hamish42 on 05.27.21 at 1:43 pm

The pandemic over-reaction may be over but the hangover is just starting to hit.
Inflation is becoming nasty as the printed govt cash gets spent- even used cars going up in value…….

#11 comrade on 05.27.21 at 1:43 pm

I immigrated to Canada 15+ years ago.

Based on the current cost of living, I believe it would be much harder (not to say impossible) to do the same now. Especially for the immigrants that are starting without savings or a job offer in the works.

#12 Linda on 05.27.21 at 1:51 pm

Funny how folks will blame anything & anyone other than their own actions for whatever the trouble of the day is. ‘Foreign ownership’ being just an example. As for immigration, the folks who immigrate are slated to become citizens & frankly, unless your background is Native American or Inuit you & yours were/are immigrants at some point in the family history. So can the crying about how ‘foreigners’ are the reason why ‘X’ is occurring.

I do wonder however how long Covid will affect immigration numbers. Can’t see how travel will resume until most of us are fully vaccinated & would expect that anyone immigrating would be required to be fully vaccinated prior to arrival. Last thing anyone wants is a resumption of viral mayhem:)

#13 Kris on 05.27.21 at 1:54 pm

At what point do massive bank profits indicate a massive debt problem on the horizon? In other words how can we expect things to continue to rise seemingly indefinitely while you claim interest rates will be on the rise? To me these record profits indicate a huge problem on the horizon.

#14 Brian Ripley on 05.27.21 at 1:54 pm

My chart of the ANNUAL COUNT of CANADIAN HOUSING STARTS vs Census in Canada, Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta since 1955 is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

It will be interesting to see if Canada wide starts can break out of a long downtrend that began in the mid-1970s (1973 Opec Embargo and 1981 18+% 5yr fixed mortgage rates). An upward trend did start at the March 2009 crash low but it has yet to break out above the overhead downtrend.

On the same page I have included 40 years of decadal provincial changes. Alberta data stand out; their starts peaked in 2006 and are now (April 2021) 50% below that 2006 peak. My employment data page also underlines that Alberta has also been experiencing the biggest shift down in the change of their employment rate and the biggest shift up in the change of their unemployment rate.

I have also included Y/Y starts for Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary.

It does appear that Canada is giddy with excitement at opening back up. No doubt we will get a consumption bump going forward, because that’s what we do in Canada, we consume more than we produce, but I don’t think we are going to get a “roaring 20’s” continuation or a “back to normal” economy for most of our population.

The “economy” for the last 12 years has been goosed by our central bank ZIRP and NIRP policy which is still in place and we still face a lot of complex issues in this and coming decades.

Risk management is still important, especially for low net worth investors.

#15 Dogman01 on 05.27.21 at 2:02 pm

Origins of Covid Virus.

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie,”- Jean-Claude Juncker

Now considering the impact this had had on economies, societies and world power dynamics, it would be the number 1 priority of the “5 Eyes” Intelligence services to get a firm conclusion on how it came about. Obviously the intelligence agencies did just that and must have reached a conclusion some time ago. (we are 18 months into this)

However just recently:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/26/biden-orders-us-intelligence-to-intensify-investigation-into-covid-19-origins.html

and
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-intel-report-identified-3-wuhan-lab-researchers-who-n1268327

All of this “newfound interest” is likely due to pressure this widely shared report authored by a respected science journalist has created.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

If there was evidence to prove natural origin “Chimerica” would have released that long ago as it is in everyone’s interest that the general public think this was a “Wet-Market bat bite”

“One can imagine the behind-the-scenes conversation in which the Chinese government says, “If this research was so dangerous, why did you fund it, and on our territory too?” To which the US side might reply, “Looks like it was you who let it escape. But do we really need to have this discussion in public?”

#16 None on 05.27.21 at 2:05 pm

I don’t know what to do. Even though I read this blog often I feel lost.

Do I buy in an over inflated RE market or continue to pay extreme rent??? I feel squeezed and screwed both ways.

HELP!

How many times does this need to be repeated?: if you need a property and can afford one without gutting your personal finances, go ahead. Just stop moaning. – Garth

#17 Vancity Clay on 05.27.21 at 2:05 pm

We can all find stats to support the narrative we want to tell. Yes the official rates of foreign ownership are quite low.. but the real rates are much higher.. go for a walk through coal harbour and you will see buildings with barely any lights on.. drive through the parkade and see all the empty parking spots.. walk through residential neighborhoods where the grass hasn’t been in cut in 6x months and the snow never gets shoveled. When you eyes and experience significantly contradict the official statistics.. you start to lose faith in the people publishing the statistics..

#18 Bob on 05.27.21 at 2:15 pm

Facts are so disappointing, aren’t they? – Garth

What facts? If 99% of homes are purchased by residents, but 80% of them get their money from shadowy Russian crime lords, then Russian crime lords control our real estate market, don’t they? Show me the money! (Mind you, I don’t think that the market is dominated by foreign money. I just find the argument from ownership unconvincing.)

Pathetic. – Garth

#19 OriginalAlex on 05.27.21 at 2:19 pm

I love the advice Garth provides and it has given extremely high ROI (considering the purchase cost) over the years.

But man the dog pics provide extremely high value as well.

#20 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.27.21 at 2:27 pm

#16 Vancity Clay on 05.27.21 at 2:05 pm
As a former Coal Harbour resident I can attest this is all true, on my building there were like 5 cars per level and you could rent a parking garage spot for $100 monthly and a 2 bedrom was going for 1,800 monthly…..those were the days.

#21 Armpit on 05.27.21 at 2:53 pm

All major retail businesses (Walmart, Canadian Tire, Home Hardware, etc ) in Ontario during this shutdown will do just fine this quarter. Costs have been cut, prices higher, and … wait for it….. no shoplifting (not counting inside jobs).

#22 Winterpeg on 05.27.21 at 3:00 pm

Pandemic not over in Manitoba. Some blaming the government. There might be some basis for that criticism. However, the virus arrived later probably because we are in the middle the country, and now we are peaking later too. The end will come a little later I guess.
Glad I retired end of April; missed the third wave. I didn’t work in critical care, but the stress was felt throughout the system.
Looking forward to when life returns closer to normal.

#23 Tyberius on 05.27.21 at 3:18 pm

Off topic, but interesting nonetheless:

** While the word “conspiracy” has been turned into a slur word used to debunk a given theory, it’s true definition has none of those connotations. Conspiracy means “an agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful or subversive act,” or “an agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.”

As such, the lab leak theory is indeed a conspiracy theory, but simply calling it that in no way denies the potential truthfulness of the situation. It does indeed appear as though several people and/or organizations have agreed to perform, at bare minimum wrongful, acts, and are working together to keep their collusion a secret.

People trying to expose this collusion are now written off as conspiracy theorists — as if exposing wrongdoing is a bad thing! It’s not. It’s a necessity if we want to live in a lawful and orderly society that doesn’t put the public at unnecessary risk. In today’s world, everyone ought to aspire to be a “conspiracy theorist” and be looking into these matters more deeply.

As reported by Wade in “Origin of COVID — Following the Clues: Did People or Nature Open Pandora’s Box at Wuhan?”21 if we are ever to solve this mystery, we must be willing to follow the science, as “it offers the only sure thread through the maze.”

In his extensive article, which I recommend reading in its entirety, Wade — a former science correspondent for The New York Times — reviews what we know about this virus so far, from published research and commentary by scientists. He then describes the two prevailing theories, and the support that exists (and is lacking) for each. **

————————————–

I see that Facebook changed their policy to no longer ban videos on the issue of Covid19 being possibly a lab-created virus.
It’s all been going mainstream last few days – I’m sure TN is on top of it.

T.

#24 TurnerNation on 05.27.21 at 3:27 pm

Re. Electric F150…they won’t tell you the Tow rating. Can’t be pretty. What about in -10c?
But what would you tow…you’ll own nothing and be happy :-)

https://jalopnik.com/towing-range-for-the-ford-f-150-lightning-sure-seems-li-1846936001
Ford spokesperson Said Deep did not share any specifications regarding the vehicle’s range when towing or hauling, but said the F-150 Lightning will “come equipped with ‘Intelligent Range’, which more accurately predicts range with factors including payload, towing information and weather so the customer knows how many miles they have left.”


— Bad news for the Covid Authoritarians. Your amulet assessed:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.18.21257385v1

Results Case growth was not significantly different between mandate and non-mandate states at low or high transmission rates, and surges were equivocal
Conclusions Mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 growth surges. Containment requires future research and implementation of existing efficacious strategies.

#25 Joe Rosser on 05.27.21 at 3:28 pm

Thanks Garth, but isn’t it possible that everything you said is already priced into the markets? If so, why would they continue to skyrocket? And if earnings disappoint once all the government income support drops, won’t the market react downward? I know investing is not just the stock market, but just curious about your views on this.

#26 Grandv!ew on 05.27.21 at 3:32 pm

Blaming foreign buyers for Canadian real estate bubble is lazy and short sighted. To be fair, value of real estate property is determined on the margin and indeed small number of transactions will decide if the prices are going up or down. In other words It doesn’t take too many transactions(foreign buyers or domestic) to influence pricing. Cherry picking of the data is happening on both sides of the trade in order to explain current events and trends.
But i must say that in my mind, number one culprit for the bubble is our government. They have the power to change policies and also decide to enforce them accordingly. But their hands are tied and apart of the cosmetic moves nothing will be done, simply because it can’t be. Tight rope walk continues…
It is not the secret that previous(Harper) and current government is pro real estate. Simple explanation for this and the main reason is, that as a country
we DO NOT have anything else going on for us in order to sustain our economy and as a result we must nurture our bubble and try to maintain status quo until the safe way out of this mess is on the horizon. It is just so sad that when people think about different countries and what they are most known for, Canada’s association at the present time and (scary to think but also in the near future) is going to be building and selling particle board condos while rest of the G7 or G20 countries are associated with cutting edge engineering, manufacturing, technology, electronics, medical research etc….Reading the other day about “Canada 150 and beyond” did not make me feel any better or more confident things will be change anytime soon.

#27 Tom Selleck and Kurt Browning are SOOOO Sexy! on 05.27.21 at 3:34 pm

Everyone just needs to get a reverse mortgage and invest the way Garth says – laugh all the way into retirement :)

#28 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 3:40 pm

#8 Faron on 05.27.21 at 1:33 pm
#92 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 11:18 am

Aww, your poor ego getting a little smushed?

———-

Sigh. Another periodically recurrent irritant. If only Preparation H worked on this one.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.27.21 at 3:44 pm

@#17 Bob
” but 80% of them get their money from shadowy Russian crime lords, then Russian crime lords control our real estate market,

++++

….Russian….. crime….. lords……

Its a busy world in there isn’t it Bob…….

#30 the jaguar on 05.27.21 at 3:48 pm

We were not given the dog’s name and we cannot see it’s face. It has on a red collar with bright sunlight coming into the car. Calgary Stampeders colour, Alberta sunlight, pedigree pooch. It belongs to the Mitchell family. Puzzle solved.

Try again. – Garth

#31 Humbled ◇ Broke on 05.27.21 at 3:49 pm

Yay.

Blue skies and cotton candy for everyone on Friday.

Oopsie. Merde de la crap… end of the world likely on Monday.

Have seen this slice of happy cheerleading before, kinda around circa Covi Wave 2, last summer, ( with dire about face not long there after by November).

Hopium is wonderful, and affordable.

Gut check time. Let’s review. No herd immunity yet, Covi Wave 4 Manitoba Variant not quite passed …yet, add generational private sector debt binge, Bank (rupt) of Canada monetization of public trillion dollar debt, geriatric demographics, automation replacing jobs …. hmm.

Respect the mammoth gonads from the bearded magus, but not taking the other side of the Garth Put just yet.

Every new covi variant starts with a patient-zero somewhere. Mux, rinse, repeat.

We are not quite done with this horror movie just yet, and there are no refunds at the ticket counter.

#32 Prince Polo on 05.27.21 at 3:49 pm

GoBanksGo! A natural hat-trick of back-to-back-to-back uplifting blog posts! Here’s hoping there’s a fourth one coming tomorrow.

Regarding real estate prices: parents are to blame for not teaching math skillz to their offspring.

#33 Rach on 05.27.21 at 3:56 pm

What do you think will happen with rates ? If they go up will there be a significant increase in supply ? I want to buy but these bidding wars are still going on and I would really like to get an inspector in before I commit to a mortgage debt.

#34 Dolce Vita on 05.27.21 at 4:05 pm

Garth.

Robbing Peter (Govs Canada) to pay Paul (Banks of Canada).

Gov’s Canada racked up mounds of debt on behalf of the people.

Why the Banks didn’t have to and they made money.

Not exactly groundbreaking stuff.

Still, I am glad for it since it’s where we all park our savings and our investments are safe, sound and in vigor.

A good thing.

Peters kids will be paying the debt off for decades.

A bad thing.

——————

Was it worth it?

Yes.

Bad enough a global pandemic than to add to that a depression. Better to pay the depression off over a few decades than the carnage of a few years.

#35 espressobob on 05.27.21 at 4:15 pm

I’ve been an advocate for globally diversified (all countries) by market cap, for years, in ones portfolio, when it comes to equity holdings.

It seems the TSX comp is finally waking up–but missed the boat.

By building a portfolio that mirrors a global benchmark, it’s ironic how most professional fund managers fail in their ability to outperform what a dumbass retail investor doesn’t try to do?

#36 Travelbug on 05.27.21 at 4:15 pm

#25 Grandview- I do so agree with you! When I immigrated to Canada 30 years ago, I felt fortunate and lucky to come to this great country and when I became Canadian (taking the oath to the queen), I was so proud. Now, I am not so sure any more… where did all the pioneering spirit go? Selling houses to each other instead of being innovative, cutting down old growth forest, polluting air and water while digging up resources, neglecting natives’ needs… what can Canada proudly stand for these days?

#37 RohRoh on 05.27.21 at 4:24 pm

Realtors are professionals that will even go the extra mile to steal your dog:

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/wheres-snoopy/

#38 Dolce Vita on 05.27.21 at 4:45 pm

” the economic carnage caused by the slimy little pathogen was just a sliver of what had been expected”

Here is what the “sliver” looked like per StatCan GDP data since Feb 2020 to Feb 2021:

https://i.imgur.com/xWso1Zp.png

Near -11.4% drop in GDP in a single month during the dark days of 2020.

“Canada’s economy suffered biggest GDP drop ever in 2020, early estimate shows”

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-economy-sees-biggest-gdp-drop-ever-in-2020-november-gdp-beats

…still is the biggest drop ever.

———————–

Some sliver that was.

Still, I like it how you write when you’re on a roll Garth.

#39 Kilt on 05.27.21 at 4:49 pm

Easy.

Time to blame the rich people.

Kilt.

#40 wallflower on 05.27.21 at 4:57 pm

#10 comrade on 05.27.21 at 1:43 pm

Your comments make a lot of sense to me.
USA is going to overtake the lead, now, with Biden in charge. There is only one remaining No Go for USA immigrants and student choices and it is a big one: getting killed in a mass shooting. We don’t have those so much here.

But the cost of living in USA is much more appealing and manageable to immigrants (as well as to many of our citizens and permanent residents). I do not see how people will choose Canada when shelter is so challenging and if our dollar keeps going up, bigger problem for them.

#41 Bob on 05.27.21 at 5:07 pm

….Russian….. crime….. lords……

Its a busy world in there isn’t it Bob…….

No, I don’t actually think that Russian crime lords are controlling our real estate market. The point I was trying to make (which apparently went over your head), is that ownership rates don’t tell you who or what is driving prices. What matters is not who the purchasers are but where they got the money.

I also think Garth ignores the knock on effects of outlier purchases. For example, if a single investor pays an obscene amount for a property, it isn’t seen as an aberration. Instead, it sets a new “normal” for comparable properties. In a rational market, this wouldn’t matter. But in one driven by fear and greed, it matters a lot.

I make no claim about what drives prices, one way or the other. All I’m asking for is some hard data. That seems pretty reasonable to me. If all I get in response is unsupported assertions and oversimplified analysis, that’s disappointing, but so be it.

#42 John on 05.27.21 at 5:12 pm

Foreign buying flow is what is important for pricing, not stock. Perhaps equally low, but it is misleading to talk about the stock as if it’s relevant to prices rising or falling. Of course the changes in stock give you the same data, but clearly not what is being presented here.

#43 Dolce Vita on 05.27.21 at 5:16 pm

Sort of on topic, VAX efficacy: BETTER in reality.

May 24. Torino Italia Medical Study.

5800 Health Care Workers (from a 12K sample size), Covid wards, fully vax’d, tested for Covid and this many still caught the virus AFTER being vax’d:

1.41%.

Probably LOWER yet for us Plebes that are not in direct contact with Covid sick +8 hrs per day.

In other words, an efficacy of:

98.59%

A worry of mine since 32M Beaves, 15 yr or older to be vax’d and 1.41% means:

450K

(or less) will catch Covid even if fully vax’d, a lot better than 5% or 1.6M (recall Pfizer, Moderna 95% efficacy).

Whew.

Vax’ng not perfect but NEAR perfect I’d say, 98.6%.

—————

Here UK’s Doc Campbell explains the study and he agrees it is good news for vax’s:

https://youtu.be/sMB1DCS6Eho?t=744

#44 Bob Dog on 05.27.21 at 5:27 pm

@ TurnerNation

Towing should be better with ev F150

1 kilowatt hour is 1 kilowatt hour. No different than the energy in a litre of gas. Electric motors have much better torque than primitive ice engines and waste little in heat.

Have you considered the added benefit of regenerative breaking while towing. My old boat trailer had breaks that activated as the boat pressed against the trucks tow hitch. That wasted energy can now be used to juice the battery while decelerating.

Also things should improve with aluminum ion batteries. Check out Graihine manufacturing group (GMG). Up 600% in last few months.

#45 espressobob on 05.27.21 at 5:39 pm

Oh, and please at your earliest opportunity, get VAXXED.

This is addressed to those still sitting on the fence.

Thank you.

#46 truefacts on 05.27.21 at 5:42 pm

Garth,

With all this money-printing, do we get inflation?

If so, does that hit the stock market like the 1970s, or has something changed since then???

#47 the jaguar on 05.27.21 at 5:46 pm

@Garth-re#29 the jaguar 5/27/21

I was going to venture Hufnagel, but you’ve spoiled my fun…

#48 ts on 05.27.21 at 5:50 pm

If the banks are doing so great, what is the justification for raising bank fees?

#49 Greg Ellis on 05.27.21 at 5:55 pm

Higher taxes, trillions on “infrastructure”, payments to rebuild Gaza (funded by Iran), totally open, chaotic border, cancellation of the pipeline (gas now $1 higher in the US), funding restored to WHO….Biden is in control of nothing. A puppet of the woke left, he never answers questions from the press which are invariably very gentle, because he will drop his cue cards or stutter something stupid. He has done nothing but make a mess of the American economy and respect for the military and police.

#50 Moh on 05.27.21 at 5:58 pm

Buying in 2019 was an insane time sigh!

#51 Penny Henny on 05.27.21 at 6:04 pm

#29 Wrk.dover on 05.26.21 at 5:28 pm
A friend cares for a dog like that occasionally. When he brings it around here, it ignores people, but never wanders more than 50 feet from them either.

Every time it sees a bird at the feeder, it sits to stare, as if it has never seen one before.

Every bird, repeat.
////////////////

Maybe your friend’s dog self identifies as a bird?

#52 TurnerNation on 05.27.21 at 6:15 pm

Yep CV did this too! Or as I call it the New System which kicked off that cold week in March. Has anything gone back to normal?
WHY else did you think the Bank of Canada already had their E-currency on hand and developed???

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/money-canada-could-be-the-first-country-in-the-world-to-go-completely-cashless/vp-AAKpB4Z
MONEY Canada Could Be The First Country In The World To Go Completely Cashless

….450 days into the New System Remember, all this was done using only two words. Mandatory. And asymtomatic.

https://www.saltwire.com/cape-breton/news/nova-scotia-boundary-restrictions-during-covid-19-lockdown-confuse-some-cape-breton-residents-100586820/
The 75-year-old communications specialist, political blogger and former independent journalist took to social media to present his conundrum: “Should I go to the closest grocery store, or stay in my county? I’m not looking for a loophole. … Just seeking clarity. (And I don’t want to run afoul of Mounties, who are, by some accounts, conducting spot checks.)


— These stories exist for one reason. Compliance. There no longer is a Kanadian Identity. No your life should revolve around Following the Rules. All culture is cancelled, all live music, sports, travel events is gone. CFL Cancelled. Leafs, Blue Jays banned from the country.
Comrade things will go easier for you and your family if you would just Follow the Rules.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh apologizes after video shows him breaking COVID-19 rules (globalnews.ca)

..
— Watch the food supply. The globalists cooked up a plan

https://noqreport.com/2021/05/27/bill-gates-has-radical-plans-to-change-our-food-whats-on-the-menu/
Bill Gates Has Radical Plans to Change Our Food. What’s on the Menu?
Ultra-processed foods, patents and monocrops
by US RTK May 27, 2021

#53 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 6:17 pm

#43 Bob Dog on 05.27.21 at 5:27 pm

Also things should improve with aluminum ion batteries.

———

Why? What are these things you speak of?

#54 Trojan House on 05.27.21 at 6:27 pm

Geez, I guess Scotiabank was right all along – we are richer than we think here in Canada! Well, at least the banks are richer and probably have always known they are richer than everyone thinks.

I have to agree with #5 Eco Capitalist on 05.27.21 at 1:25 pm. The money being pumped into the system by the Feds and the central banks is crazy. I don’t think they can stop it. The markets are addicted to it.

#55 Shawn on 05.27.21 at 6:31 pm

I’m hoping the pandemic is over but I wouldn’t doubt a 4th wave in the fall this year. I’ve decided to sell my house and move in with the mother in law for 1000 a month in rent. Hopefully housing doesn’t go higher and I’m priced out. If it does, whatever. I rather have cash to invest than a mortgage to pay. Own the bank, don’t owe it

#56 Faron on 05.27.21 at 6:33 pm

#27 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 3:40 pm

Double awww. Hemorrhoids to boot. Just tell us how rich you are, that will make you feel better. Poor guy.

#57 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 6:37 pm

My bank (TD) raised my chequing account service fees by 56% this year and also closed down my local branch. It’s no wonder they are making money by gouging their customers like that.

#58 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 6:39 pm

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the banks are making record profits because of massive government largesse over the last year. Where would the banks be if not for that, courtesy of the taxpayers?

#59 Wrk.dover on 05.27.21 at 6:43 pm

#50 Penny Henny on 05.27.21 at 6:04 pm

Maybe your friend’s dog self identifies as a bird?

______________________________________

Certainly bird brained, maybe some cat in the gene pool.

Never sniffs, never paws, never licks. How can that be a dog? Excellent no attitude side kick though. I’d adopt it.

#60 Jake on 05.27.21 at 6:43 pm

You nailed it Garth. On March 24, 2020 you posted the Emotion Curve chart after the Down jumped a record 11% up. I commented saying I think we are at the point of Hope on the curve. Either that or we were going to the dirty 30’s again. I took your advice. March 23 was the bottom.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/03/24/

#61 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 6:47 pm

Technically, you’re not a foreign owner if you’re a permanent resident. Those numbers don’t appear to include all categories of what constitutes foreign ownership. So it depends on how you want to count it.

Permanent residents are called ‘Canadians’. Like you, but perhaps more tolerant. – Garth

#62 Brian on 05.27.21 at 6:54 pm

Any idea why TD stock tanked today?

#63 Interstellar Old Yeller on 05.27.21 at 6:57 pm

If you saw this emerging last March, you were a visionary. Or maybe you just read this blog.

100% that I read this blog. I’m grateful for it. Thanks, Garth.

When I look at the prices I was buying ETF units for in March 2020… wow. I deployed all my cash back then. Worked out great.

#64 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.27.21 at 7:00 pm

Important Note about Today’s Photo:

For Toronturds who are pathetic fans of the Make Believes, this photograph includes a “trophy”, which will seem quite foreign to you all.

“Trophy” refers to… i.e…. A prize awarded to a winning, capable team that does not have 53 years of incompetence, child abuse, ripping off of its customers, and generally lousy play on the ice as its main story.

Good news for GTAHoles who are delusionally thrilled that their horrible hockey franchise might actually win a playoff series for the first time in 17 Years:

The 2021 Fake NHL Season doesn’t count, doesn’t matter anyway. No one will care about, or value any team that does “well” this year.

So you can just chill in Toronthole and focus yourselves on flipping real estate there and watching tv reports about shootings all around town instead.

#65 Love_The_Cottage on 05.27.21 at 7:09 pm

#61 Brian on 05.27.21 at 6:54 pm
Any idea why TD stock tanked today?
_____
Any idea why you’re looking at individual stocks on a daily basis? Have you learned nothing here?

#66 R U a lapdog 4 $$$$$$$ on 05.27.21 at 7:13 pm

Yes, follow the money…
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/bidens-plan-for-hyperinflation-you-havent-seen-anything-yet

#67 Doug Portier on 05.27.21 at 7:16 pm

The pandemic maybe over but the government, UN, global organizations systematic overreach, tyranny is getting worse and will get worse. You saw a glimpse of it with that crap by the Canada 150 Beyond.

#68 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 7:17 pm

#23 TurnerNation on 05.27.21 at 3:27 pm
Re. Electric F150…they won’t tell you the Tow rating. Can’t be pretty. What about in -10c?
But what would you tow…you’ll own nothing and be happy :-)

——————————————

They’ve said it will be 10,000 lbs, which is pretty typical for a half ton.

My truck gets pretty crappy mileage as it is but when towing approx. 10,000 lbs fuel consumption goes up by about 33%. I would thus expect to see a similar drop in range for an electric vehicle when towing. So a 300 mile range with no trailer would be a 200 mile range with a heavy trailer, and somewhere in-between for in-between trailers. This means the truck would still be suitable for contractors in town. And since it comes with an optional inverter, it might be ideal for framers, etc. Just plug your Dewalt battery bank in right there.

Where the truck will be weakest is probably among the RV crowd. 200 miles with a camping trailer isn’t much, especially since you are away from your home charging station.

#69 conan on 05.27.21 at 7:19 pm

These emergency interest rates must be helping the banks maintain an even larger spread on their loan portfolios. I wonder how much of their profit is just the spread?

Low rates hurt spreads. You have it backwards. – Garth

#70 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 7:21 pm

Permanent residents are called ‘Canadians’. Like you, but perhaps more tolerant. – Garth

Let’s get this straight once and for all:
Permanent residents in Canada are not Canadian citizens but they have been granted permission to live and work in Canada without any limit on the length of their stay.
As a Canadian citizen I am allowed to vote. PR can’t vote nor can they run for elected office in any level of government so they are not ‘Canadians’ until they are granted Canadian citizenship.

They live here. Work here. Have families here. Pay taxes here. Just like you. Stop being a dick. – Garth

#71 VicPaul on 05.27.21 at 7:23 pm

#48 Greg Ellis on 05.27.21 at 5:55 pm
Higher taxes, trillions on “infrastructure”, payments to rebuild Gaza (funded by Iran), totally open, chaotic border, cancellation of the pipeline (gas now $1 higher in the US), funding restored to WHO….Biden is in control of nothing. A puppet of the woke left, he never answers questions from the press which are invariably very gentle, because he will drop his cue cards or stutter something stupid. He has done nothing but make a mess of the American economy and respect for the military and police.

*********

Hey…easy Greg. Trojan Joe was just doing his job gettin’ ’em in the house. Try and remember the smug old guy’s smile when he says, “Come on Man!”
That’s political theatre cnn-style.

M57BC

#72 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 7:30 pm

#52 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 6:17 pm
#43 Bob Dog on 05.27.21 at 5:27 pm

Also things should improve with aluminum ion batteries.

———

Why? What are these things you speak of?

———————————-

All battery improvements can do, whether actual or hypothetical, is increase range. You still need the electricity to charge them. And that comes mostly from fossil fuels.

#73 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 7:33 pm

They live here. Work here. Have families here. Pay taxes here. Just like you. Stop being a dick. – Garth

As a Canadian citizen I am allowed to be a dick.

You do it well. – Garth

#74 Ustabe on 05.27.21 at 7:33 pm

#52 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 6:17 pm

#43 Bob Dog on 05.27.21 at 5:27 pm

Also things should improve with aluminum ion batteries.

———

Why? What are these things you speak of?

Anyone who isn’t aware of aluminum ion batteries or GM’s bag (as opposed to plate or cell) batteries would also not be aware of Moltex — a startup company that proposes to reprocess CANDU spent fuel to recover its contained plutonium for use in molten-salt-cooled reactors. Risky, innovative stuff being done in Canada, where some of us think nothing innovative goes on.

I guess you being a DIY guy wouldn’t have the team bringing stuff like this to your attention.

BTW, you forgot to thank me for the “source” request you made the other day. I provided…what was it? 17 pages of “source” in 1.2 seconds via Google. Something like that.

#75 rowdie on 05.27.21 at 7:44 pm

And, don’t forget TD is raising the minimal $ amount in your preferred checking account to $5,000 effective June 1st., from $2,000. How kind they are! People are finding it hard to get by in life now, with debts and bills. It is real sad this has come to a crisis within the banking system. The banks are over extended as is in mortgages.. believe me there will be a housing crash in BC! The banks will pay!

#76 Galt on 05.27.21 at 7:54 pm

There is a lot of interesting talk going on at Reddit /r/canadahousing

For example
Link deleted

Lots of advice on leaving the country as well.

These are the people who put up the billboards in Ottawa Toronto and Vancouver

Something has to give at some point. There is no was little piere will get elected again. I’m going to vote conservative even though it’s the worst possible thing for Canadians. The insanity must end.

#77 polecat on 05.27.21 at 8:00 pm

Let’s get downtown open soon, miss those hot office women and happy hour. I saved a ton of cash, first 10 rounds on me!

#78 Nobody knows ... on 05.27.21 at 8:03 pm

What drives prices is few very rich people (wherever they come from), and the banks loaning billions. We can keep blaming people but they won’t stop buying as long as they can afford it (as long as the banks will keep lending them money). And easy for homeowners to say that kids shouldn’t buy. If that is what you think, why don’t you sell? If you find an asset is overpriced and you wouldn’t buy it, you should also sell it. Especially those 20% holding secondary properties. This will stop when people will run out of access to cash for some reason. And if that happens it will come down like a house of cards, because all the new rich will want to cash in at the same time. This is why the government is tiptoeing around the bubble. Access to money is a necessity. Salaries don’t seem to be increasing, so credit must.

#79 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.27.21 at 8:06 pm

AN OLD TRUISM !
“People will believe the most preposterous stories, so long as prices go up”. When the dream ends, millions of overindebted speculators will miss out on their Hollywood happy ending. When the helicopter money stops, look out below, this choppers earth bound. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.27.21 at 8:12 pm

@#51 TurnerNation
Re Bill Gates

https://noqreport.com/2021/05/27/bill-gates-has-radical-plans-to-change-our-food-whats-on-the-menu/
Bill Gates Has Radical Plans to Change Our Food. What’s on the Menu?
Ultra-processed foods, patents and monocrops
by US RTK May 27, 2021

++++
judging from his divorce settlement……..
is that before or after he sleeps with the hired help?

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.27.21 at 8:14 pm

@#72 S.Burnaby
“As a Canadian citizen I am allowed to be a dick.”

+++++

So I guess your local MP wont be getting your vote?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagmeet_Singh#:~:text=Jagmeet%20Singh%20MP%20(%2Fd%CA%92%C9%99,Party%20(NDP)%20since%202017.

#82 Catalyst on 05.27.21 at 8:28 pm

I don’t think socializing the losses in favor of roaring bank stocks should be applauded. The amount of CEWS money that shifted losses from companies to the taxpayer is outstanding and of course not reported by design. There are many cases I could point to where it cost Canadian taxpayers 10s of millions but there are no whistleblower laws to protect private employees.

Throw in EDC and BDC (quasi crown corps) throwing tens of millions of BCAP loans to soak SME’s in liquidity has certainly stopped the default wave but didn’t fix the problem. The can has been kicked, but for how long…

Lastly, business credit demand is super weak. Banks are starved for revenue growth (to justify these bloated share prices) which is leading to misallocation of capital and throwing themselves at any desperate prospective homebuyer to goose mortgage profits.

#83 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 8:33 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz

Correct. I won’t vote NDP federally.

#84 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 8:37 pm

#74 rowdie

Yes that’s me too. I complained all the way up to the TD ombudsman about these exorbitant fee increases but they are not budging (so far).

I’d encourage you to complain, do not take this laying down.

#85 Wrk.dover on 05.27.21 at 8:46 pm

#69 S.Bby on 05.27.21 at 7:21 pm
Permanent residents are called ‘Canadians’. Like you, but perhaps more tolerant. – Garth

Let’s get this straight once and for all:
Permanent residents in Canada are not Canadian citizens but they have been granted permission to live and work in Canada without any limit on the length of their stay.

_____________________________________

So, to be a citizen, these PR’s have to….get ready for it….swear (honest) allegiance to the Queen of England!

How many cowboys in Alberta or elsewhere coast to coast to coast would jump through that hoop if they had to, rather than having had the luck to been born in Canada. (I do mean the honest ones.)

Or just remain PR’s? But then again, people do swear allegiance to Trump, so maybe it’s an already lost argument.

#86 Faron on 05.27.21 at 8:49 pm

#71 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 7:30 pm

Can you please acknowledge that producing energy from O,G or C at large scale including transmission and other losses is far more efficient than doing do in a small cold engine (which also has transmission losses through trucking, and refining? Pretty please? Sugar-of-physics on too?

No one credible expects complete revisioning of energy infra overnight. Change is incremental.

#87 Joe Schmoe on 05.27.21 at 8:52 pm

Blaming immigrants for RE prices is like me blaming my jeans for looking fat!

#88 Trojan House on 05.27.21 at 8:53 pm

Here’s one for @TurnerNation: UK PM Boris Johnson being told to delay the total reopening scheduled for June 21st because…variants.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9624453/June-21-hangs-balance-warns-Professor-Neil-Ferguson.html

#89 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 8:59 pm

#73 Ustabe on 05.27.21 at 7:33 pm

I don’t know about these “aluminum ion” batteries, but I know something of batteries.

First, no matter the capacity they must be charged. Battery improvements only improve range, not the fundamental energy problem.

Second, the more energy dense the battery, the more likely it is to burn if shorted. This is because the two sides of the reaction are both contained within the cell, so when things go wrong the battery discharges into itself, creating a lot of heat. This is why when a Tesla catches fire they cannot put it out until the batteries have consumed themselves.

Gasoline, on the other hand, requires oxygen to burn, so as long as it stays in the tank there is little risk of fire. Of course if it gets out of the tank best to extinguish your cigarette.

#90 the Jaguar on 05.27.21 at 9:05 pm

Not sure if anyone else covered this tidbit today, as its been a busy day driving the clowns around town, but caught this snippet in the news :

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-efficiency/homes/canada-greener-homes-grant/23441

So….. On top of all the CERB that went to unqualified recipients which cannot be paid back, apparently due to governmental ‘whoops’, and everything else, our ‘champion of women’s entitlement’, Daycare subsidized by the state, and dog knows what else our Finance Minister and her progressive henchmen have up their sleeves, we are also going to give anybody that can fog a mirror $5,000 to say they are going to insulate their house with new windows and then probably just pool funds for yet another down payment on yet another rental property.
All on the premise that we can’t just tax the bejesus out of the oil and gas industry, we have reduce green house gas in other ways. Never mind the boost it will give to the construction/renovation guys and the appearance of bring jobs back. The gravy train rolls on..

Deceit thy name is ‘Liberal’.

#91 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 9:17 pm

I here tell that the Stampede will go ahead this year but with no chuckwagons. Seriously? The reason given is that the horses are out of shape, having not raced in a year. And you thought it was just you.

#92 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 9:27 pm

#85 Faron on 05.27.21 at 8:49 pm
#71 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 7:30 pm

Can you please acknowledge that producing energy from O,G or C at large scale including transmission and other losses is far more efficient than doing do in a small cold engine (which also has transmission losses through trucking, and refining? Pretty please? Sugar-of-physics on too?

No one credible expects complete revisioning of energy infra overnight. Change is incremental.

————————————-

A modern ICE is running around 33% efficiency these days, and modern car builds like the Corolla make that go a long way. The best that we have for generation is co-gen gas fired plants which can hit 50% but then you still have transmission and charging losses (yes there are losses when charging a battery, you get less out than you put in).

So ya, in an ideal world, a gas fired co-gen charging a battery powered car will result in an improvement in efficiency, but it is nothing to write home about. And then you need to build all that additional infrastructure.

Thermodynamics always wins. I assume you passed the course?

Charging electric cars at work with solar when the sun is out has some prospects though. Can’t charge them at home that way of course because the sun doesn’t shine at night.

#93 april on 05.27.21 at 9:27 pm

#74. Yes according to reports many people are finding it extremely difficult to cover the basics and yet we keep hearing the real estate is on a tear. How can that be. It seems to me the only people buying are those who are in the market and can afford to move up to better more expensive homes. First time buyers are priced out… for now. According to a couple of Vancouver realtors this is “peak house”.

#94 BillyBob on 05.27.21 at 9:28 pm

#55 Faron on 05.27.21 at 6:33 pm
#27 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 3:40 pm

Double awww. Hemorrhoids to boot. Just tell us how rich you are, that will make you feel better. Poor guy.

————————————-

Why do you spend so much time on a site that evidently only brings out your most childish, gormless qualities? I rarely post any more, but I still read and it’s always the same with you. Just angry lashing out at anyone who disagrees, alternating insults with pseudo-science. Even scrolling past gets tiresome.

Just…why?

Just as well you wimped out of meeting up in person. What a sad bore.

#95 midnight's on 05.27.21 at 9:40 pm

Gerald Celente just indicated in his new post. That if Nova Scotians take they’re 2 shotYou could travel. Maybe, if you kiss the Pinky Ring.

#96 Brian Ripley on 05.27.21 at 9:45 pm

“Watch the food supply. The globalists cooked up a plan” #51 TurnerNation on 05.27.21 at 6:15 pm

Usually I ignore your posts Turner Nation, because in the past I realized that you do not take any time to check your sources and you hide behind anonymity; that’s not a good combination if you are wanting to be a social media maven. Your post caught my eye because I eat food and care about what I eat.

BUT: According to: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/noq-report/

noqreport.com is not a source of reliable news. Media Bias Fact Check concludes that:

“Questionable Reasoning: Poor Sourcing, Conspiracy Theories, Propaganda, Lack of Transparency, Failed Fact Checks
Bias Rating: FAR RIGHT
Factual Reporting: LOW
Country: USA (45/180 Press Freedom)
Media Type: Website
Traffic/Popularity: Medium Traffic
MBFC Credibility Rating: LOW CREDIBILITY
Overall, we rate NOQ Report (to be) Far-Right Biased based and Questionable based on the promotion of conspiracy theories, right-wing propaganda, poor sourcing, a lack of transparency, and false information.

#97 Faron on 05.27.21 at 9:46 pm

#93 BillyBob on 05.27.21 at 9:28 pm
#55 Faron on 05.27.21 at 6:33 pm

Just as well you wimped out

Why the hell would I waste my time in the presence of someone who has repeatedly implied I’m abusive to my partner or who has offered to force himself on her? The only business I have with you is throwing a beer in your face and I wasn’t about to do that outnumbered 5:1 at one of the crapiest pubs in town (srsly, Maude Hunters?). Furthermore, I didn’t get your invitation until minutes before and I was at work. GFY

#98 45north on 05.27.21 at 9:52 pm

Kris At what point do massive bank profits indicate a massive debt problem on the horizon? In other words how can we expect things to continue to rise seemingly indefinitely while you claim interest rates will be on the rise? To me these record profits indicate a huge problem on the horizon.

they do to me too

Kevin Carmichael writing in the Financial Post captures my sense of angst

Notably, the Bank of Canada’s most recent research suggests that the froth in at least some markets is now worse than in 2016 and 2017. Policy makers reckon that households with mortgages that are 450 per cent bigger than their incomes are vulnerable to bankruptcy. That group represented 22 per cent of all home loans in the fourth quarter, compared with a previous peak of about 18 per cent in the third quarter of 2017.
The figure was 16 per cent at the end 2019, when households appeared to be slowly working off their debts. That trend has reversed. Canadians are again adding to their already impressive debt piles, which represent a risk to future growth.

so let’s review
up to now nobody has gone bankrupt which is why the banks are doing so well
but the number of people that are vulnerable to bankruptcy has gone up

in another article Kevin Carmichael writes

Recent history suggests Canadians are good at balancing on the edge of a precipice.

reminds me a line from the song “Still the Same”
“the trick you said is never play the game too long”

#99 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.27.21 at 9:57 pm

HAA-HAA!!!!!

4-3 Habs.

What deplorable chokers the Make Believes are.

People in Toronthole are such delusional suckers. They were all ready to “celebrate” a “possible” break from 17 years of playoff failure.

And then their team has just choked. Again.

Toronto, you are such a disgrace, such an embarrassment to Real Canada.

Now go out and start driving your Audis like psychopaths, shooting each other, and flipping condos.

LOOOOOOOooooooOOOOOSSSSEeeeeeerrrrrRRRRRSSS!

#100 yvr_lurker on 05.27.21 at 10:03 pm

Latest run up in prices in YVR has little to do with foreigners. It is largely due to interest rates being ridiculously low. Economics is never a controlled experiment. It is disingenious to say that alas this proves that foreigner have had little to do with the run-up in prices (with Garth implicitly implying that the statement is still valid over the past 5–6 years prior to this past year). Always the claim is “where are the facts and evidence”. How about Andy Yan’s extensive docoumentation

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/amp/vancouver-news/foreign-owned-homes-west-vancouver-bc-1943202

Moreover, Eby is in my view one of the most diligent and trustworthy politicians we have had in BC since I have been of voting age.

#101 Faron on 05.27.21 at 10:05 pm

#91 Nonplused on 05.27.21 at 9:27 pm

I accept your analysis, but don’t forget energy that goes into refining and trucking gasoline around.

Another issue, of course, is the difference between point-source and distributed emissions. CCS is a long way off, but it aint happening from a tailpipe. Non CO2 emissions are better placed with remotely located natty gas plants thus improving human health immediately.

#102 Terry on 05.27.21 at 10:40 pm

“First, the pandemic is over.”

Sorry Garth………….but it will never be over. It’s a Corona Virus. It will be back again and again just like the common cold and the Flu. It will get stronger and more deadly every year. The virus will always reduce itself in the summer and then come back stronger, mutated and more contagious in the winter months. It will never go away……….that is what they are not telling you. The shots as I call them since they are NOT true vaccines by definition will slowly become ineffective by the end of this year to all the new mutations this virus will produce. Lastly, there is another problem that has yet to manifest itself. It has to do with what will will happen to people who took the shots………….once they get challenged with a newly mutated covid virus that the shots are ineffective against. That will be a story for another day………but not too much longer since………”Time Is Very Short Now”.

#103 Bob Dog on 05.27.21 at 10:51 pm

@Nonplused

BC, Washington State and probably Quebec are 100% solar powered for electricity via Hydro. A visit to Revelstoke dam is on my bucket list but its deep in the BC interior. Hours and hours drive away.

Generating electricity is not an issue. Storing it and transporting it is the problem.

https://www.bchydro.com/community/recreation_areas/visitor-centres/revelstoke-visitor-centre.html

#104 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 10:56 pm

Sherilyn, if today’s dog isn’t a Munsterlander I’ll eat my hat.

#105 DDR Kampftruppen on 05.27.21 at 10:59 pm

That’s all Canada is. Six banks.
Get rid of the border. Get rid of the crown.

#106 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 11:28 pm

BillyBob on 05.27.21 at 9:28 pm
#55 Faron on 05.27.21 at 6:33 pm

———-

Why do you spend so much time on a site that evidently only brings out your most childish, gormless qualities? I rarely post any more, but I still read and it’s always the same with you. Just angry lashing out at anyone who disagrees, alternating insults with pseudo-science. Even scrolling past gets tiresome.

———-

Yes. The petulant defiance does get tiresome.

And this after I tried seflessly to bring him along on the Tesla rocket well before its 1000% climb, enduring endless personal insults and namecalling. A lesser man would have given up… but I persevered, offering benevolent fatherly guidance, only to be met again with rejection, laced with bitter envy.

All I can say is: open your heart to Sail Away and you will be repaid a hundredfold.

#107 the Jaguar on 05.27.21 at 11:50 pm

“I support this plan,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw told reporters at a news conference in Edmonton on Thursday. “I believe this plan is a prudent approach to reopening.
“(We) need to be as mindful of recovering from the impacts the last year has had on Albertans’ mental well-being,” she said. +++

I agree. And sorry Garth, but I feel I must rescind my nomination of you as Official Parade Marshall of the Calgary Exhibition and Stampede 2021 ( major league honour) and throw my support behind Dr. Deena Hinshaw. Her ‘bangs’ trump your’ beard’, Garth. You know how these things work given your political background.

Four posts for me today (shocking). A bit much , but I feel very happy and excited to know that normal life is about to return to Alberta. I am confident.

I’m dragging out this tired old clip from a favourite Star Trek movie, ( because I never tire of any of them), and in this moment , after everything endured these past 15+ months by everyone, everywhere, it seems that Faith & Charity are still alive.

Starship Alberta begins to rise from the ocean depths of Covid despair………………

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8qs1u96ttQ

#108 fishman on 05.28.21 at 1:22 am

Stocks are a leading indicator! But what if that has changed? What if exponentially increased debt has trapped liquidity in financial assets. Then the stock market becomes a lagging indicator. Stay invested in the market because thats where the money is. Housing now too is considered a financial asset. But growth doesn’t come from financial assets. Welcome to our debt trap. Far beyond the pale of Paul Martin come a riding to our rescue. We’ll get a pop from Get out of Jail, Pass Go, Collect $200. Stagflation somewhere in the future? The powers to be must be terrified of deflation. Keep printing but liquidity can’t escape the gravitational pull of financial assets. The fatal end game of capitalism,the rich get richer. No tools left in the box, except martial law. The final humiliation? A soldier searching the gold bugs coming from the safety deposit boxes underneath Scotia Tower.

#109 NSNG on 05.28.21 at 1:25 am

The write-up and picture are classic iconic Canadiana.

Put that one on the wall of fame.

I saw this as I drove by a church in New Westminster the other day. They like to put up the witty proverbs:

A single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood

….though, how they got in touch with a raindrop’s feelings is yet to be explained.

#110 Neo on 05.28.21 at 2:17 am

Aluminum ion batteries charge 60 times faster than Lithium ion and don’t burst into flames killing the well off monied occupants. So less energy density is offset by recharge time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=58c833296d28

#111 Captain Canada on 05.28.21 at 2:49 am

Let’s not ignore the Buffet Indicator. Cathy Wood did and its not going well for Noah’s Ark ETF.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

#112 westcdn on 05.28.21 at 4:27 am

Alberta weather is tough. After May things get better but I do read the clouds. Hailstorms have been mean. My seedlings are doing well with proper watering. My daughter told me to expose my tomatoes to wind – seems to be working to harden them. Could have a good crop this year if see a storm coming – I plant them in pots.

Last year, I brought in 3 tomato plants over the winter. One survived but it is ugly. Still it has tomatoes and is growing more flowers. Now if my peppers would do the same.

I could buy calls on the banks but I see it as a clouded field with no edge there. Their preferreds stink but I did well with National Bank. I hit singles but the home run is nice.

Watching algae grow on a rock or paint dry is not the way I want to play. I find bank equities are fully valued and managed by loan loss provisions – the dividends are sweet though and governments will not allow them to fail.

I will stay with commodities and industrial Reits for now and let the preferreds roll off the table. Cashflow has always been king to me. I will work down my debts for the lack of better ideas.

#113 Dharma Bum on 05.28.21 at 7:47 am

Habs in 7!

That’ll cure the T.O. bandwagoners.

Fingers crossed.

#114 the Jaguar on 05.28.21 at 8:14 am

@#104 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 11:28 pm
“All I can say is: open your heart to Sail Away and you will be repaid a hundredfold.” +++

I did and was repaid the moment you mentioned the Kona Tiki. A great tip.

#115 Kiril Peev on 05.28.21 at 8:34 am

Ottawa Real Estate – Prices Double while Rents Stay Flat

A look at Ottawa residential prices. Purchase prices have approximately doubled from 2016 to now while rental prices have stayed relatively flat over the last ten years.

This will make it hard for new landlords to enter the market and break even without relying on continued capital appreciation.

Charts below:
https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-prices-double-while-rents-stay-flat/

#116 the Jaguar on 05.28.21 at 8:39 am

Hello Conservative Party of Canada. Are you out of bed yet, this morning? This is a singular moment, so hope you are paying attention. The column below is written by one of the most annoyingly progressive social justice warriors you’ll ever stumble over, and who is giving a ‘shout out’ to O’Toole.

I am ‘verklempt’. Can it be possible that the tables are being turned? Are the cancel culture warriors finally turning on our current PM? Judge for yourself.

https://pressreader.com/article/281818581746135

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.21 at 8:47 am

@#93 BillyBob
“Just as well you wimped out of meeting up in person…”

+++

I think it might have been the sight of you in spandex shorts………

#118 Elon’s advisor on 05.28.21 at 8:54 am

Batteries are a three pronged competitive challenge of cost, safety and performance. Find the best formula and win. Cylindrical cells are at a disadvantage to prismatic cell in the cost arena.

#119 45north on 05.28.21 at 9:52 am

Jaguar Hello Conservative Party of Canada. Are you out of bed yet, this morning? This is a singular moment, so hope you are paying attention. The column below is written by one of the most annoyingly progressive social justice warriors you’ll ever stumble over, and who is giving a ‘shout out’ to O’Toole.

here’s a better link – you cannot copy PressReader

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/sabrina-maddeaux-millennials-were-catfished-by-trudeau-come-on-otoole-nows-your-chance

The recipe is simple. First, go hard on housing. Present a real plan to address the crisis and shout from the rooftops how Trudeau’s time in office poured the fuel in the real estate rocket. During his tenure, owning a home went from being a goal, to a far fetched dream, to a practical impossibility for most Millennials and Gen Z. Despite experts not just in Canada, but around the world, sounding the alarm, neither Trudeau or his finance minister Chrystia Freeland have even uttered the words “housing crisis.”

This didn’t happen by accident; it was a series of concerted choices by those in power. The Liberals’ own parliamentary secretary for housing admits the government fostered a better market for foreign investors than local buyers, but says even a 10 per cent decline in house prices that soared up to 40 per cent year over year would be unacceptable. Yes, Erin, I saw your tweet lamenting you’re “saddened too many Canadians are priced out of their own country.” But that ain’t it. Get mad. Present a roadmap to affordability.

“roadmap to affordability” that’s simple make housing cheaper!

we’re living in a make-believe world

#120 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 10:18 am

Blackberry continuing the third day of big volume and outsized leaps. Will it have legs? Some predict yes…

#121 pPrasseur on 05.28.21 at 10:31 am

“But the virus also saw real estate bloat as never before.”

Not the virus, cheap and easy credit as usual, thanks again to money printing help from the feds.

The more unbalance between productivity growth and debt spending the worse the inevitable correction is going to be. We are already way passed the point this could be prevented.

#122 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 10:35 am

#112 the Jaguar on 05.28.21 at 8:14 am
@#104 Sail Away on 05.27.21 at 11:28 pm

“All I can say is: open your heart to Sail Away and you will be repaid a hundredfold.” +++

———

I did and was repaid the moment you mentioned the Kona Tiki. A great tip.

———

Haha, you will enjoy it. If you’re doing an island tour, we’ve always enjoyed the Dolphin Bay in Hilo as well. The original owners built a Monk sailboat and toured the Pacific as far as Japan for years before landing in Hilo, buying a land plot, and building the motel with itinerant sail-bum labour in the 60s. They are in their late 80s now and their son manages the place.

Funky and dated open air place with banana gardens and fresh fruit every morning. Not everyone’s thing but we loved talking sailing with the owners.

#123 Another Deckchair on 05.28.21 at 10:39 am

@114 Jaguar

“Are the cancel culture warriors finally turning on our current PM?”

Talking to someone with some late-teenage kids. All are pissed at Trudeau and his dithering stealing their youthful years of high school graduation and attending Uni with all of the fun of Uni.

This “someone” also mentioned calling her MP numerous times, no one in the office, no callback. The MP?

Catherine McKenna – MIA for her constituents.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.21 at 11:01 am

Anyone want to predict when Trudeau will think its “Safe” to call an election?

I’m thinking late Sept….before the virus comes back in the Fall and he has to “own” more lockdown bad news….

#125 Faron on 05.28.21 at 11:04 am

#118 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 10:18 am

Blackberry continuing the third day of big volume and outsized leaps. Will it have legs? Some predict yes…

All the drooler meme stonks are surging. Juust facepalm. Book. Your. Profits. Now. Rebuy it later, but this is a meme driven squeeze

#126 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.28.21 at 11:12 am

OMG GARTH!!!

It is SNOWING in Toronthole!!

Shut down this blog NOW!!

Send all the Amazons with shovels to help those poor, whining GTAHoles!!

Snowflakes falling upon snowflakes!! In May!!

This is a NATIONAL EMERGENCY!!!!!!

#127 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 11:20 am

#123 Faron on 05.28.21 at 11:04 am
#118 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 10:18 am

Blackberry continuing the third day of big volume and outsized leaps. Will it have legs? Some predict yes…

———

All the drooler meme stonks are surging. Juust facepalm. Book. Your. Profits. Now. Rebuy it later, but this is a meme driven squeeze

———

Thanks! Filed with the rest of your tips under ‘Bad Advice’.

#128 Immigrant man on 05.28.21 at 11:31 am

Banks – record profits.
Corporate earnings – great.
Investment portfolios (people bragging here inclusive) – super.
WFHomers – more $ saved and loving it (myself included)
Realtors/RE sector parasites – rolling around in piles of cash and laughing like maniacs
Service sector – getting fat govt pogie for not working (spoke to some small business owners – can’t get people!)

So everyone is happy? Everyone won? (Obviously dead people are a minus, but I am talking economy here). I don’t get it. Sounds like the virus was super great for the economy. Is is that, or did we just borrow 10 cajillion $ from the future? Kinda like a poor dude getting a cash advance on a cheque not earned yet and blowing it in one crazy night at the bar. Or is it all great and only getting better? Please, wise Garth (not sarcasm) explain.

#129 Faron on 05.28.21 at 12:15 pm

#125 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 11:20 am

Dropped 5.5% immediately after you wrote that…

If you are going to play single stonks that are in the meme arena it behooves you to understand what drives their price! Else you are just another mouthbreathing WSB goon. Why are AMC and BB correlated at ~1 today? Fundamentals? Ha!

Last time you watched your BB surge 3x then come all the way back down. And you are about to do it again.

Off another full % in writing this.

#130 IHCTD9 on 05.28.21 at 12:27 pm

#10 comrade on 05.27.21 at 1:43 pm
I immigrated to Canada 15+ years ago.

Based on the current cost of living, I believe it would be much harder (not to say impossible) to do the same now. Especially for the immigrants that are starting without savings or a job offer in the works.
___

I know a 30 year old new immigrant working in the GTA. No family here, got a 2 year College diploma in Ontario, now he works 2 jobs doing 85-94 hours per week to try and get a life going. He currently lives in desperation mode, but hopes he will soon improve to living hand to mouth.

Trying life in the sticks and winning was possible 2 years ago – but that ship might have sailed now too.

Trudeau let RE go berserk, and Lefty fiscal policy has now essentially made slaves out of everyone under 30 years old. Classic big Canadian industry is toast, the voters seem to get dumber every year, wages in once grand sectors are waning – for those jobs which still remain.

I agree it’d be real tough to get off and running without any help in Trudeau’s new Canada. I also think we ain’t seen nothing yet. The wealth divide is now a canyon, thanks to the Federal Liberals. 10-20 years from now, Canadian society will be cloven unlike any other country in the world – rich and poor. That’s it.

Folks who can’t get the resources together to own RE and build a significant portfolio, best make exit plans. There are few places in Canada left for you. For everyone who did: Congratz, you may be among the last to have actually lived the Canadian dream.

#131 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 1:34 pm

#127 Faron on 05.28.21 at 12:15 pm
#125 Sail Away on 05.28.21 at 11:20 am

Dropped 5.5% immediately after you wrote that…

If you are going to play single stonks that are in the meme arena it behooves you to understand what drives their price! Else you are just another mouthbreathing WSB goon. Why are AMC and BB correlated at ~1 today? Fundamentals? Ha!

Last time you watched your BB surge 3x then come all the way back down. And you are about to do it again.

Off another full % in writing this.

———–

Relax, Chicken Little, there is no emergency. Nor is allowing assets to fluctuate a tragedy.

Watch and learn, son. Watch and learn.

#132 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.28.21 at 2:37 pm

I disagree that the government should not get involved in housing.
Let’s look at Singapore where the government owns most property and everyonecan get an affordable rental.Yes ,I do bring it up everytime because it is the standard that can be met and it should be our goal as an enlightened society.
Note that private ownership is still allowed. Why do we still promote in today’s RE situation the notion that private ownership is the best myth is beyond me . Time to move on from the past and do something that benefits all.
On a separate note why are we promoting “illegal alien” dogs when the Canadian dog shelters are struggling? We need proof of their PR that comes before they are allowed to be citizens….then we can promote their cuteness.

#133 Don Guillermo on 05.29.21 at 12:27 am

#132 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.28.21 at 2:37 pm
I disagree that the government should not get involved in housing.
Let’s look at Singapore where the government owns most property and everyonecan get an affordable rental.Yes ,I do bring it up everytime because it is the standard that can be met and it should be our goal as an enlightened society
****************************
Singapore is the most boring place I’ve ever been. Don’t be a Singapore.
********************************
On a separate note why are we promoting “illegal alien” dogs when the Canadian dog shelters are struggling?
——————————-

This I agree with. Gringos in Mexica (and elsewhere) are feverishly shipping street dogs back to Canada and USA. It’s ridiculous!