Bad moon rising

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Bad Moon Rising
I see the bad moon a-rising
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin’
I see bad times today
– CCR

I’ve always been big into music and one of my favourite bands growing up was CCR or Credence Clearwater Revival for all you young punks. I was thinking of their classic hit, Bad Moon Rising, when I read the recent inflation report out of the US.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last month (or could care less about economics and the financial markets), then you know we got a big negative surprise from the April US inflation report, which has the global financial markets on edge right now. The above lyrics from that song capture the sentiment among some investors and analysts that inflation is primed to skyrocket, potentially derailing the nascent economic recovery and bull market. I’m not so sure.

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is generally a ho-hum event and not a major market mover. Not this time!

US CPI rose 0.8% mom and was up 4.2% yoy, which marks the highest reading since 2008/09. This spike in inflation has some worried that all the money printing and government stimulus is/will lead to an inevitable surge of inflation and it could be starting now.

US Headline CPI Jumped to 4.2% in April

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

I definitely see inflation picking up and ‘running hot’ for the next little while, but I’m not buying the high 1970s/80s inflation thesis when US inflation peaked at 15%.

First, inflation is surging in part due to ‘base effects’. CPI is a yoy statistic and this time last year we were dealing with the early fallout from the pandemic and prices were dropping (last April CPI was -0.7% mom). With the current economic recovery, prices are naturally rising and are getting a boost from this yoy base effect.

Second, there are two main causes of inflation – ‘demand-pull’ and ‘cost-push’.

‘Demand-pull’ inflation is what we typically experience when the economy is picking up and consumer demand outstrips supply. This higher demand leads to higher prices for wages, rents, Big Macs, gasoline etc.

In contrast, ‘cost-push’ inflation occurs when there is a shortage of goods or supply, which helps to drive prices quickly higher. I believe we’re seeing more of this ‘cost-push’ inflation at present.

The pandemic has dramatically changed our spending habits as we’re spending less at restaurants, our local barbershop, dentist visits or traveling (i.e., services). Instead we’re buying new fridges for our updated kitchens, outdoor patio furniture for our backyards, or a new bike so we can escape the confines of our home. These are called ‘consumer durables’ and a lot of this Covid-induced buying is contributing to this uptick in inflation. But, as we continue to vaccinate and approach that 70-80% ‘herd immunity’ rate, we should then come out of our dungeons (I mean our homes), and start spending again on those neglected services. Instead of staying in, we’ll be going out to the bars, restaurants and movie theatres and try to get back to ‘normal’. So as we shift from durables back to services this could help to take some steam out of the inflation readings.

Third, to really get inflation going you need wages to move appreciably higher and that is not the case right now. As seen below, US hourly earnings growth has dropped to a crawl and is the lowest level in years. With still lots of unemployment and slack in the labour market, I don’t see wage growth screaming higher over the next few years.

US Wages Are Under Pressure

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, as I covered in another post on inflation (https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/09/26/inflations-coming-in-time/), I see a number or major deflationary forces like globalization, aging demographics, and technology that should help to keep inflation in check over the long-term.

It’s May 24 weekend. Go and crack a couple of cold ones and celebrate the start of summer. Better days are coming with the vaccine rollout ramping up. Finally! I don’t think you have to worry too much about inflation, so go and crank up some CCR and have a good (but responsible) weekend.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

103 comments ↓

#1 the Jaguar on 05.22.21 at 9:50 am

……one of my favourite bands growing up was CCR or Credence Clearwater Revival ….+++

And I suppose Three Dog Night, too? Mercy, where are my smelling salts…. Marvin, James Brown, David Bowie go better with patio cocktails….enough said.

#2 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 05.22.21 at 10:39 am

Sir Ryan,
Do you also see additional deflationary pressures arriving within the next 4-5 years when gargantuan mortgage holders have to renew at higher rates, and therefore, have even less discretionary cashflow for restaurants, bars, and home renos?

#3 Tarot Card on 05.22.21 at 10:40 am

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Ryan

I agree this inflation blip is temporary, watching some prices….here’s what I notice at Costco, both outdoor fireplace bowls $20 and golf cart $20 cheaper than last year. Sorry golf clubs sold out last month. They were $50 cheaper. Apple computer the old model drop $500 from a month ago. But that’s technology advancement.

Artificial grass sold out in a week.
Gas prices last year were 1.49 and then the pandemic kick in and drop 22 cents for the long weekend, now 1.49 again. It was up 10 cents from two weeks ago.

I am not going to talk about two by fours as that an old horse story. But ask yourself this I see people still buying wood for home projects? Sounds like buy before the price jumps, such fools in three months there will be so much wood available they will be giving it away.

I see help wanted signs in Canadian tire and staples, when was the last time you ever saw that??

I agree the inflation deflation battle, will be interesting if we saw anything during the pandemic people can and do switch their spending habits quickly.

My bear and bull pick is sell Crypto and buy gold.

Have a great weekend everyone.

#4 Drill Baby Drill on 05.22.21 at 10:44 am

Canadian households on a tight budget are contending with food, energy and tax inflation. The feds have been borrowing so much that they will have to raise taxes next year. Never mind projected increases in lending rates.

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.22.21 at 10:45 am

“Go and crack a couple of cold ones and celebrate the start of summer. Better days are coming with the vaccine rollout ramping up. Finally! I don’t think you have to worry too much about inflation, so go and crank up some CCR and have a good (but responsible) weekend.”

Exactly!

Enjoy your own backyard in Oakville, or Halifax, or wherever.

NOT AT A COTTAGE.

2022 will be a better year, 2023 may be the best to plan for a return to cottage life. Plan on going out of town then. Don’t be an irresponsible sociopath and travel now, putting others at risk.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#6 ogdoad on 05.22.21 at 10:45 am

CCR and a few cold ones you say?

DONE!!

Og

#7 Big Bucks on 05.22.21 at 10:51 am

I don’t think anyone is calling for 70’s inflation but the overnight rate of 0.25% is completely insane.They should get ahead of this inflation fear now because chasing after that monster is absolutely no fun.

#8 Cici on 05.22.21 at 10:59 am

First again?

It’s a little early to crack a cold one, but hey, if you think it’s a good idea, it most certainly is ;-)

#9 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 11:00 am

No supply, big demand for just about everything I am trying to purchase right now (except on paper investments). No examples needed, everyone sees it.

#10 safe money? on 05.22.21 at 11:09 am

right. so money printing, debt monetization, don’t cause inflation. it just raises the price of houses, stocks, and pretty much everything except wages… so, there really isn’t any inflation. got you.

#11 NoName on 05.22.21 at 11:23 am

One of the question that I ask people is who they like more Rolling Stones ot Beatles. So far only 2 people answered Rolling Stones, why is that. And if you are playing guitar i thend to aks what you like more fender strat ot lespaul. I don’t play any instruments i just like music.
My answers would be rolling stones and fender strat. But i am steel wondering why people like thise triangle funny looking guitars, yes tracktor i am looking at you.

https://youtu.be/-ZL2b4O3nz8

#12 Cici on 05.22.21 at 11:34 am

#7 Big Bucks

I don’t think anyone is calling for 70’s inflation but the overnight rate of 0.25% is completely insane.They should get ahead of this inflation fear now because chasing after that monster is absolutely no fun.
____________________________________________

I totally agree. And while I agree with Ryan that they won’t raise rates drastically, I still believe inflation is going to completely spiral out of control because the new economy has little to do with wages and everything to do with debt.

The reason people’s “savings” have skyrocketed has less to do with a piddly $2000 cheque from Trudeau or gas and haircut savings as it does with inflated net worth thanks to rising home prices. Thanks to warnings about rate increases that have never transpired over the past 15 to 20 years, the 70% majority of homeowners are no longer afraid of debt. For as long as interest rates remain low, people are going to eat their hearts out on credit and they won’t care that they are spending more each month than they are bringing in. There’s a HELOC and credit card quick-fix to make up the difference. Plus, a majority of millennials just overpaid a ton on crap housing that will need major renovation and restoration work in the coming months and years. They will buy bikes, cars and new appliances using HELOCs and other forms of credit.

So, I forecast they will keep lying about CPI (whatever they say, multiply it by at least 3, probably more going forward) and keep interest rates low until the 30% that aren’t homeowners are financially squished to the point they have to leave. Question is, what happens with all those empty condos? Oh wait, no problem. Investors will leave them empty and keep speculating them into oblivion, thanks again to credit. I suspect this cycle will keep going on indefinitely or at least until the hot pile of debt significantly surpasses the RE-backed GDP.

Maybe a more appropriate song going forward would be this one, from Led Zeppelin:

“Good times, bad times
You know I’ve had my share
When my woman left home
For a brown eyed man
Well, I still don’t seem to care”

#13 God bless the queen on 05.22.21 at 11:36 am

Now drink up…

Who’ll stop the rain.

#14 Ryan Lewenza on 05.22.21 at 11:47 am

NoName “One of the question that I ask people is who they like more Rolling Stones ot Beatles. So far only 2 people answered Rolling Stones, why is that. And if you are playing guitar i thend to aks what you like more fender strat ot lespaul. I don’t play any instruments i just like music.”

The Beatles and Fender Stratocasters for me. I own one Strat and a Gibson ES-335. One day I’ll add a Les Paul but next up for me is a Telecaster. Now time to get back to my guitar playing and enjoying the weekend. – Ryan L

#15 Ryan Lewenza on 05.22.21 at 11:53 am

Prince Polo “Sir Ryan, Do you also see additional deflationary pressures arriving within the next 4-5 years when gargantuan mortgage holders have to renew at higher rates, and therefore, have even less discretionary cashflow for restaurants, bars, and home renos?”

Rates are definitely going to move higher but I see them still remaining relatively low for a while so I don’t see higher mortgage rates severely impacting consumer spending here in Canada. Now if rates jump a lot higher than I anticipate and this drives home prices down materially then we could have a problem. The key is how high interest rates rise. – Ryan L

#16 Quintilian on 05.22.21 at 11:58 am

Manufactures are being hit with large price increases from their primary materials suppliers and are passing on the price increases and surcharges to their distributors.

Some of the distributors who have pricing power are passing the price increases to their end users. The distributors who are in very competitive markets are absorbing some of the cost and are hoping to increase prices when the economy is firing on all cylinders.

Make no mistake, there is both cost push and demand pull and is not reflected in the official bogus numbers.
Inflation has been ignored for years.

The tooth should have been drilled and filled, long ago, but the patient was kept on pain killers and now the tooth will fall.

#17 albertaguy in ab on 05.22.21 at 12:16 pm

May long in Calgary and that means snow which we got this week and it looks like we are not done yet….no need to refrigerate the cold ones…just keep ’em outside.

Inflation…where ever possible I am pushing out major reflation related purchases…like 3000 dogs…waiting for the mass rehoming kijiji ads to begin.

Have a good one dogs!

#18 tbone on 05.22.21 at 12:18 pm

# 11 noname

I agree with you , stones and a strat .
I have a left handed american made fender strat but dont play it .
It was an impulse buy 25 years ago but cant get around to sell it . It sits in my family room as an art piece .

Ryan … no Led Zep , Deep Purple or Sabbath ?
I still listen to them when i exercise.

#19 Flop... on 05.22.21 at 12:23 pm

Happy Charturday.

Well, I couldn’t snag one of those high paying jobs, but I will get a decent increase in my new government job, if I stay out of trouble.

Thanks to the people on here that wrote to give congratulations and encouragement, appreciated.

Only a post by my Uncle WULLY, could make it better.

This blog is a good sounding board on society, I use it to try and challenge myself to live a better and more secure life.

Garth once wrote a list about the ten golden rules of investing, I broke just about all but one, gifting my wife some money to get her TFSA up and running, meant I didn’t break his rule on only lending money to someone I am sleeping with.

The rest of the list violations only confirmed my existing suspensions that I was an investment hack, after beating myself up about for a while, I found peace and set in motion a plan to rollover and clean up my superannuation in Australia for my Southern Hemisphere Portfolio, and whittle down management fees on my North American Portfolio.

I realize partly through being a dual citizen, and partly through lack of smarts and stubbornness, that I will never have a textbook financial portfolio, I will chip away over time, running my own race, accepting that the consequences of my actions rest solely on my broad shoulders.

I joke around on here around on here a lot, but I swear deep, deep down inside there’s a deep thinker in there somewhere…

M46BC

—————————————————————————————————

“Charting the 20 Top Growing U.S. Careers Based on Real Salary Projections.

It’s great to work in a high-paying job, but what are the occupations with the highest growth over the next several years? This visualization focuses on the top 20 fastest growing job markets, letting you easily compare the top growing careers, how much money they make and the expected growth over the next decade.

* The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that wind turbine service technicians will see the fastest salary growth in the coming decade, jumping from $52,910 to $85,185 by 2029.
*
* Solar photovoltaic installers are set to be the third fastest growing profession in terms of compensation, increasing by some $22,894 in the next ten years.
*
* Nurse practitioners are expected to receive the highest total increase in salary over the next several years, starting from $109,820 and going up to $166,926.
*
* In general, the occupations with the fastest salary growth tend to be either tied to a green economic future or ones in the medical profession which cannot be easily automated.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/fastest-growing-occupations-in-the-US

#20 morrey on 05.22.21 at 12:30 pm

after reading the quasi-literate comments today i think i am ready to crack two cold ones!
Happy Vicky Weekend

#21 Ryan Lewenza on 05.22.21 at 12:39 pm

tbone “ # 11 noname

I agree with you , stones and a strat .
I have a left handed american made fender strat but dont play it .
It was an impulse buy 25 years ago but cant get around to sell it . It sits in my family room as an art piece .

Ryan … no Led Zep , Deep Purple or Sabbath ?
I still listen to them when i exercise.”

Oh tons of Zeppelin and Black Sabbath growing up. Actually I’m heading out back now and time to crank up some Whole Lotta Love. I hope the neighbours are away this weekend! – Ryan L

#22 Pete on 05.22.21 at 1:12 pm

Why are there no knobs on the kitchen cabinets in that pic?

#23 Travelbug on 05.22.21 at 1:43 pm

No comment on the dog picture? How did he/she get up there?

#24 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.22.21 at 1:45 pm

While we’re on the topic of bands and music…I would say the ’70’s belonged to the Brits with bands like Black Sabbath, LZ, Jethro Tull, Uriah Heep, Deep Purple, Pink Floyd, David Bowie, ELP, Queen, Moody Blues, The Who, Yes and many others.

However, the 80’s is where Canada shined with the likes of Bryan Adams, Chilliwack, Jerry Doucette, Glass Tiger, Harlequin, Headpins, Jeff Healey, Honeymoon Suite, Prism, Max Webster, Loverboy, Mahogany Rush, Platinum Blonde, Northern Pikes, Rush, Saga, Spoons, Pat Travers, Triumph, Tragically Hip, etc.

But maybe these should be saved for Canada Day. Have a good lone weekend everyone.

#25 Dave on 05.22.21 at 1:48 pm

Prices for everything people buy is out of control expensive. Government and Central Banks turn a blind eye. Is this to erode people’s wealth so middle class continue to struggle and all previous inheritance disappears because of inflation?

Why else do interest rates stay the same

#26 SoggyShorts on 05.22.21 at 1:50 pm

#22 Pete on 05.22.21 at 1:12 pm
Why are there no knobs on the kitchen cabinets in that pic?
***************
Push-latch doors.
https://youtu.be/HlNht6yDzpM?t=8

#27 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 1:50 pm

Weekend reading. What’s next for this country – in the ongoing Soft Coup/Colour revolution (Since March ’20)?
At well over 450 days into it surely you notice things are not, ever going back to ‘normal’?

(Two words did this it’s been said. Mandatory, and Asymptomatic. Manadatory Rules; because you are Asymptomatic. Quick, re-write the medical textbooks!)

Lets go straight to the government website for the plan.

#59 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 6:14 pm
I’ve been posting about Musk’s front company, Neuralink. ‘Neuralink, an upcoming technology aiming to bring symbiosis between artificial intelligence and the human brain.’

—- Well then what does our own Government have to say on all this? (This WW3 is for our MINDS after all.)
Yes the Blockchain was invented for Us, to store us.

https://horizons.gc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Biodigital-Convergence-with-Links-Final-02062020.pdf

“ECONOMIC FUTURES Exploring Biodigital Convergence”
“Biodigital convergence is opening up strikingly new ways to:
• Change human beings – our bodies, minds, and behaviours
• Change or create other organisms
• Alter ecosystems
• Sense, store, process, and transmit information
• Manage biological innovation
• Structure and manage production and supply chain”
“Full physical integration of
biological and digital entities”

#28 Another Deckchair on 05.22.21 at 1:55 pm

@22 Pete

Easy. “Hey Siri, I need a plate”

or “Hey Alexia, where’s the front loops?”

Me, a Rickenbacker 4003, and Fender Precision. I’ve still got a solid body Rick, some model# – don’t remember!

#29 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 2:10 pm

The Future in Kanada. More rainy weekend reading. Straight from Government and IMF’s sites.

But first:
– Oh great the Checkpoints will now have guard dogs. Just like the old days. Enjoy your stay in Covid Jail once detected.

“FIU detection dogs earn COVID-19 certification just in time to work the South Beach Wine & Food Festival

A team of certified COVID-19 detection dogs will work the crowd at the Food Network & Cooking Channel South Beach Wine & Food Festival presented by Capital One (SOBEWFF®). The dogs, trained by researchers at FIU’s International Forensic Research Institute (IFRI), are the first in the country to gain certification specific to COVID-19.”


— Social/Financial credit score being pushed
http://canadabeyond150.ca/reports/capital-and-debt.html

How long will this all be lasting?
From April 2020 the IMF plan. Page 6. Financial aid is planned until March 2025!

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/993371585947965984/pdf/World-COVID-19-Strategic-Preparedness-and-Response-Project.pdf

Country(ies)
World

Project Name
COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program (SPRP)

Expected Project Approval
Date
02-Apr-2020

Expected Project Closing
Date
31-Mar-2025

#30 Gino on 05.22.21 at 2:11 pm

Inflation or no inflation a house in a Canada costs 700,000 on average. I’m listening to 80s freestyle. Stevie B – spring love.

#31 tkid on 05.22.21 at 2:15 pm

Hi Ryan, do you have a guess as to where mortgage interest rates will be in 3 years?

#32 NoName on 05.22.21 at 2:32 pm

#22 Pete on 05.22.21 at 1:12 pm
Why are there no knobs on the kitchen cabinets in that pic?

What i noticed over the time, on many cooking chanells on YouTube kitchen cabinets are missing knobs. I an American thing i guess. Here are two random cooking Channel and no knobs…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8-TktdTbB0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8W-mfoUoAM

No i just have to decide whats for dinner, gumbo or jambalaya…

#33 Patience Is A Virtue on 05.22.21 at 2:41 pm

“There’s a bath-room on the right”

#34 S.Bby on 05.22.21 at 3:09 pm

I posted here a few weeks ago about wage increases at major employers of over 10% so I don’t see wages remaining stagnant. Workers are in demand because many are being paid by the government to not work.

https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-wages-workers-pandemic-hiring-chipotle-costco-target-walmart-2021-5#hobby-lobby-2

#35 Don Guillermo on 05.22.21 at 3:34 pm

Stones over Beatles. So tired of CCR. Saw the Stones
1.) in Vancouver 1972 – Exile on Mainstreet
2.) in Istanbul Sept 1998 – Bridges to Babylon. Athens and Istanbul were a late addition to the tour.

I have a Fender Strat, Ovation and a Martin Steel String backpacker (for travel) …

https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B000P63U74?tag=thebrokebackp-20&keywords=Martin%20Steel%20String%20Backpacker%20Travel%20Guitar%20with%20Bag&geniuslink=true

… and would love to add a Fender Telecaster and a James Taylor favorite Olson SJ.

https://luthierscollection.com/guitars/available-2008-olson-sj-1273/

New Olson models are mostly sold out and pricey if you can find one.

I enjoy music from the boomer years but enjoy music more when good young stars come along. Example – Jason Isbell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yixt-NqeuIM

https://www.ebay.com/itm/254967307648?hash=item3b5d3c5d80:g:ILEAAOSwOkZgkevw

#36 Steven Rowlandson on 05.22.21 at 3:39 pm

Like it or not plenty of hours and pay has never been bad for an economy. It results in bills getting paid, savings, sales for business and a positive attitude about the future. If that is bad I must be on the wrong planet.

#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 3:46 pm

#23 Travelbug on 05.22.21 at 1:43 pm
No comment on the dog picture? How did he/she get up there?
————
No big deal.
My cat does it all the time.
Two jumps.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 3:49 pm

Turner Nation.
It’s over.
Give it a break.

#39 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 4:10 pm

#34 S.Bby on 05.22.21 at 3:09 pm

I posted here a few weeks ago about wage increases at major employers of over 10% so I don’t see wages remaining stagnant. Workers are in demand because many are being paid by the government to not work.

Large body of research emerging that tells us that deaths from Covid were and are being vastly under-reported.

Essential workers like short order cooks/servers in chain restaurants are over-represented for their demographic in Covid cases. Along side their employers being late to the game with PPE, etc there is a significant over abundance of Covid related deaths and long term disabilities in that sector.

So, no, they aren’t staying at home because the government is paying them to…they are dead.

Just a note to back up stuff above…Florida historically has attributed a range between 500-700 for deaths due to pneumonia. Year over year. Last year, for reasons only the GOP knows, they reported over 2,300 deaths as a result of pneumonia.

Research (real research, not political research)is emerging that tells us that the Covid deaths in the US are closer to 900,000 than the 590,000 reported.

Wages are going up because there is a labour shortage.

#40 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.22.21 at 4:32 pm

#29 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 2:10 pm

— Social/Financial credit score being pushed
http://canadabeyond150.ca/reports/capital-and-debt.html

—————

Holy crap, nice find! Thanks for posting that link!

I’ve been laughed at and labeled a tin foil hat nutter for predicting they would do this.

Now we have proof that this is precisely what they are quietly planning.

Time to think about leaving Canada… States that have passed legislation banning vaccine passports are on my short list of potential destinations.

#41 S.Bby on 05.22.21 at 4:42 pm

#39 Ustabe
So, no, they aren’t staying at home because the government is paying them to…they are dead.

LOL what hyperbole. You don’t have ANY proof of this.

#42 Summertime on 05.22.21 at 4:44 pm

M2 is increasing 15 % on yearly basis while production and consumption is declining. Of course that 2 % ‘inflation’ is not a real, but a fake number, the real number is 5-8 % depending on where you live, could be soon even twice that.

#43 Summertime on 05.22.21 at 4:49 pm

#40 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.22.21 at 4:32 pm
#29 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 2:10 pm

— Social/Financial credit score being pushed
http://canadabeyond150.ca/reports/capital-and-debt.html\

This seems more typical to a third world country, not to a G7 country.

#44 Phylis on 05.22.21 at 5:06 pm

#33 Patience Is A Virtue on 05.22.21 at 2:41 pm
“There’s a bath-room on the right”
Xxxx
“Excuse me while I kiss this guy.”

#45 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 5:10 pm

#19 Flop… on 05.22.21 at 12:23 pm

* The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that wind turbine service technicians will see the fastest salary growth in the coming decade, jumping from $52,910 to $85,185 by 2029.

___________________________________

With excellent health, I climbed the 300 ft ladder twice.

Not enough money left in the world to pay me a third time.

How ’bout you, with your weak knees?

By the way, they don’t heat those things either. Brrrrr.

Some job!

#46 Ken on 05.22.21 at 5:19 pm

What about the dog, Mr. Lewenza? What is the story with the dog? Did its owner ask the dog how high inflation may go and it jumped all the way to the top of the cabinet?! Maybe the dog knows something we don’t. I can see the headlines now, Mr. Lewenza: ‘Money Mutt Warns of Higher Inflation’

#47 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 5:21 pm

#39 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 4:10 pm

Just a note to back up stuff above…Florida historically has attributed a range between 500-700 for deaths due to pneumonia. Year over year. Last year, for reasons only the GOP knows, they reported over 2,300 deaths as a result of pneumonia.

————-

Completely and utter rubbish you’re spreading, U. You mention research and backup three times but provide no source? Let’s debunk, shall we:

Florida pneumonia deaths for:

2017 3,057
2018 3,091
2019 2,705

And so on… it looks like 2,300 pneumonia deaths in 2020 would be a significant decrease from average.

Here’s the official site:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

#48 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 5:34 pm

#45 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 5:10 pm
#19 Flop… on 05.22.21 at 12:23 pm

* The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that wind turbine service technicians will see the fastest salary growth in the coming decade, jumping from $52,910 to $85,185 by 2029.

———–

With excellent health, I climbed the 300 ft ladder twice.

Not enough money left in the world to pay me a third time.

How ’bout you, with your weak knees?

By the way, they don’t heat those things either. Brrrrr.

Some job!

————

Yow. Pick up one of these next time:

https://craneinstitute.com/news/the-worlds-highest-aerial-lift/

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 5:49 pm

Hey Sailo.
What kinda music you listen to?

#50 NoName on 05.22.21 at 5:52 pm

#45 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 5:10 pm
#19 Flop… on 05.22.21 at 12:23 pm

* The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that wind turbine service technicians will see the fastest salary growth in the coming decade, jumping from $52,910 to $85,185 by 2029.

___________________________________

With excellent health, I climbed the 300 ft ladder twice.

Not enough money left in the world to pay me a third time.

How ’bout you, with your weak knees?

By the way, they don’t heat those things either. Brrrrr.

Some job!

i am sure that someone lazy will invent some type of hoist or something… Going up is much easier fatigue and mucle cramps tend to kicks in on a way down, sad a guy wo fell fro 25ft on a head from stepladders. Luckily i landed on head than on a side or other vise i would be injured…

and bonus cooking video ccr x3 songs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz8omzV1RUY

Green River
Bad Moon Rising
Born On The Bayou

#51 GrumpyPanda on 05.22.21 at 6:16 pm

Before the world went insane people renovated homes. However they recognized that the property value would not increase as much as the renovation cost. Reminds me of:

A Three Dressed Up As A Nine -Trooper.

#52 Don on 05.22.21 at 6:49 pm

By the sound of the names of bands they like, this site looks like a bunch of old codgers, who have nothing else to do but write long harangues to display their delusional self-importance.

#53 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 6:52 pm

#47 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 5:21 pm

OK, the FLA stat that I read, seemingly from a well researched site, is wrong. Or I misremembered the figure…or I transposed figures…long time ago in Internet terms.

I’ll stand by the remainder of my post. More folks are dying due to complications from Covid than are being reported, more minorities and youth are dying due to the type of jobs they hold and that is being under-reported world wide. Research is beginning to capture that.

#54 Very Daper Pathogen on 05.22.21 at 7:11 pm

“Then as it was, then again it will be
And though the course may change sometimes
Rivers always reach the sea

Blind stars of fortune, each have several rays
On the wings of maybe, downy birds of prey
Kind of makes me feel sometimes, didn’t have to grow
But as the eagle leaves the nest, got so far to go

Changes fill my time, baby, that’s alright with me
In the midst I think of you, and how it used to be”

Led Zeppelin

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 7:12 pm

Proud Mary
No contest
So great to dance to.

#56 Don Guillermo on 05.22.21 at 7:18 pm

#52 Don on 05.22.21 at 6:49 pm
By the sound of the names of bands they like, this site looks like a bunch of old codgers, who have nothing else to do but write long harangues to display their delusional self-importance.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You’re an embarrassment to my name. Try the new album from Raul Malo “En Espanol” y tranquilo pandejo!

#57 Barb on 05.22.21 at 7:20 pm

CCR’s greatest song!

And Paul Simon’s “Slip Slidin’ Away” (the nearer your destination, the more you’re slip slidin’ away) is also appropriate for these times.
More the words than the toe-tappin’ part.

#58 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 7:22 pm

“Second, there are two main causes of inflation – ‘demand-pull’ and ‘cost-push’.”

But Milton Friedman said:

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

https://www.hoover.org/research/inflation-true-and-false

“Cost push” and “demand pull” inflation describe specific inflationary pressures and not the entire market. Consider the equation:

MV = Py, where;

M=money supply
V=money velocity
P=general price level
y=real gross domestic product

What the government reaction to covid did was increase the money supply dramatically, but at the same time reduce money velocity by restricting spending. You can only buy so many new fridges so if you can’t go to the movies or a ball game the money that would otherwise be spent on such things sits in the bank at zero velocity. The government also reduced y by paying people not to work causing a drop in gross domestic product. A shortage of lumber, for example, caused by labor shortages caused prices to rise but does not reflect a true increase in real GDP because the higher prices are offset by less product sold.

So let’s rearrange the formula to:

P=MV/y

The M as already gone up and the y has already gone down, both of which are inflationary. The only thing that has kept P in check is that V has gone down.

V and y should rise together as things reopen, whether at the same rate or not is unknown but there should be some offset. M on the other hand is a horse that has left the barn and “stolen a Porsche”. Thus there will be inflation, but not “hyperinflation”, because they didn’t print that much money.

It gets a lot more complicated with respect to the US dollar, because as a reserve currency all of the terms in the equation are somewhat global in nature rather than just US specific. So the increase in M that we have seen is spread out over a larger Py than just the US. So in my mind V remains the largest question.

Unfortunately, V is very dependent on human behavior, which is terribly hard to predict. If the world goes full YOLO after this we could see sustained high inflation (but not hyperinflation).

Over the long term, say 2030 and beyond, y will become an increasing problem. The question of whether we will be lowering carbon emissions or not has already been decided on a political level so arguing about the intensity of climate change is a moot point. The decision has been made. But the fact remains that renewables require a lot more inputs per energy output than fossil fuels, and are intermittent. Therefore energy costs are going to go up. “GDP is energy”, so the world will struggle to grow GDP. As per the equation, that is also inflationary.

Thus, the only thing that could cause deflation in the foreseeable future would be a collapse in money velocity, which I don’t see happening. I think it is about as low as it is going to get now.

#59 the Jaguar on 05.22.21 at 7:29 pm

I would like to take this opportunity to thank Garth Turner for keeping a long leash on the comments section of this blog these past 15 months during which large numbers of the Canadian population fell to their knees and succumbed to fear, anxiety, finger pointing, false or inept media reports, and the blaming of neighbours and others for a pandemic that fell on the world like an anvil.

This daily Blog has served as outlet to express ourselves on all of the above, and it’s kept more than a few of us sane and feeling we are not isolated from others.

If Garth thought his contribution to ‘public service’ ended with an exit from formal government service it has been taken up again here with all the solid financial advice, musings on society, reflections on the past, and advice on the future and how to prepare for it. I know you are not a big fan of Alberta, Garth…but if you would agree to run for Premier and WFH in Lunenberg I figure you could win in a landslide.

If all of this sounds like a major suck up, it isn’t. Jaguar doesn’t have the privilege of owning a dog at this moment, and with Sail Away, NonPlused, Murray the Vet, and others posting their family dog photos and thanking Garth for his contributions, I didn’t want to miss the opportunity to do the same. You’ve helped more people than you will ever know

#60 Shawn Cardiere on 05.22.21 at 7:39 pm

Are you living under a rock. Property taxes, water, electricity, gas, heating, electricity bills, garbage fees, other municipal charges, fees, food, medical costs, car, home insurance, other commodity prices like lumber, copper etc., higher taxes, carbon taxes etc. etc. are all up way up way before the pandemic. It is not temporary, transitory, inflation, cost of living is at least up 22% to 25% over the last 5 years.

A 5 year government bond or GIC and other interest rates are not being purposely held back, manipulated, forced down by at least 3% 3.5% points.

A 5 year mortgage fixed should be 5% to 5.5%+ at least and a 5 year GIC, government bond should be at least 3.5% to 3.75%+. It is all misleading, figures lie and lairs figure. It is really bad since 2008 global financial crisis that central banks, governments, corporations policies and laws have kept interest rates below real rates, below inflation and speculation in all markets bonds, stocks, equities, real estate are way overvalued.

#61 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 7:50 pm

#45 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 5:10 pm
#19 Flop… on 05.22.21 at 12:23 pm

* The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that wind turbine service technicians will see the fastest salary growth in the coming decade, jumping from $52,910 to $85,185 by 2029.

___________________________________

With excellent health, I climbed the 300 ft ladder twice.

Not enough money left in the world to pay me a third time.

How ’bout you, with your weak knees?

By the way, they don’t heat those things either. Brrrrr.

Some job!

————————————-

Don’t the big ones have lifts in them?

And what about the folks who climb radio towers? I don’t generally have a fear of heights but photos taken from the top of a radio tower make me nauseous. And how does one even find themselves in that line of work? Changing out light bulbs 1000 feet in the air? I guess the big radio towers also have lifts for most of the ride but yikes! You ain’t getting me up there!

“How ’bout you, with your weak knees?”

I find that people who work physical jobs, say construction, tend to stay in pretty good shape. But their knees still go. Hopefully they have disability insurance or get promoted to foreman.

I can’t, at this point, imagine surviving a day installing a shingle roof.

#62 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 7:58 pm

#14 Ryan Lewenza on 05.22.21 at 11:47 am

The Beatles and Fender Stratocasters for me. I own one Strat and a Gibson ES-335. One day I’ll add a Les Paul but next up for me is a Telecaster. Now time to get back to my guitar playing and enjoying the weekend. – Ryan L

————————————

I have a Washburn, US made. Don’t play it much anymore but it is a fine guitar. Guitars are funny in that way. Even if you aren’t using it, you don’t really want to sell it. Kind of like an old motorcycle.

#63 Yuus bin Haad on 05.22.21 at 7:59 pm

For that true Toronto sound, you need a Telecaster, drill holes in it (like Dom did), study The Rogues at The Hawk’s Nest and learn how to play it (preferably through a Leslie). https://youtu.be/HvplBbsR5fc

#64 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 8:05 pm

The trick to climbing a turbine tower is to lean back against the wall, and let your legs do the work, in both directions. With a harness, your chest is connected to a parallel cable with a catch device.

Very boring commute though.

And don’t forget anything you’ll need up there.

_________________________

looky here though

https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-56632/a-scary-time-to-retire/

#65 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 8:12 pm

#61 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 7:50 pm

Don’t the big ones have lifts in them?

______________________________

Bwa ha ha!

Utility CEO’s and shareholders have no use for 100’s or thousands of lifts.

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 8:25 pm

#57 Barb on 05.22.21 at 7:20 pm
CCR’s greatest song!

And Paul Simon’s “Slip Slidin’ Away” (the nearer your destination, the more you’re slip slidin’ away) is also appropriate for these times.
More the words than the toe-tappin’ part.
————-
And if people really think that the World is going down the shitter, may I suggest:
Barry McGuire’s “Eve of Destruction”
Enjoy

#67 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 8:36 pm

#53 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 6:52 pm
#47 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 5:21 pm

I’ll stand by the remainder of my post. More folks are dying due to complications from Covid than are being reported, more minorities and youth are dying due to the type of jobs they hold and that is being under-reported world wide. Research is beginning to capture that.

———–

Source?

#68 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 8:37 pm

#65 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 8:12 pm
#61 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 7:50 pm

Don’t the big ones have lifts in them?

______________________________

Bwa ha ha!

Utility CEO’s and shareholders have no use for 100’s or thousands of lifts.

————————————

The “lift” I remember seeing on the internet was basically a basket and a winch. Wouldn’t that be cheaper than paying people to climb all the way up over the long run? But yes you are right companies make funny decisions. Got to keep that capex down and we’ll just hide the cost of paying people to climb a ladder under “unexpected maintenance”.

#69 Trojan House on 05.22.21 at 8:40 pm

#29 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 2:10 pm

The Canada Beyond 150 reads right out of the Great Reset handbook – “you will own nothing and be happy.”

“Social credits score” is right out of the communist China handbook.

As far as the other report, amazing how they were able to release such a detailed report a month into the pandemic.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.21 at 9:02 pm

@#66 Ponzies Potty Preamble.

Bad Moon rising.
Slip Sliding away.
Eve of Destruction…..
All wonderfully scatalogical.
How about that classic Freudian ballad.

Ring of Fire…..

#71 Flop... on 05.22.21 at 9:06 pm

In my spare time I continue to write my thesis that Men At Work’s 1981 Album “Business As Usual” is the greatest album of all time.

As a 7 year old it was the first album I purchased with my chore money, and as the album turns 40 later this year, it is still my favourite of all time.

The three singles that they played on the radio all the time are some of my least favourite on the album but if you listen to the album in its entirety it takes you on a nice little 38 minute journey.

In certain parts of the album I can hear echoes of other bands I like such as The Police, but Colin Hays haunting vocals always takes it to another level.

Full album.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lv0PlU84YQ4

Most of the songs are around the 3:30 mark in length, but I really like the last song which didn’t receive any radio play because it lasts nearly 7 minutes and was considered too long, titled Down By The Sea.

A certain guy I know in Lunenburg might enjoy it, as it relates to his environment…

M46BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z-672m20FVk

Down by the sea
I found your hidden treasure
Just you and me,
We overdosed on pleasure

Yonnies in the wind,
We’re ruggin’ up for winter
Putting out the bins
In cold and windy weather

Down by the docks
Live all the silent sea-ships
Crates are stored on blocks
Where now only the rats live

Sail me down the river
Till we reach the shore
Diving into the center
Eating out the core

Down on the beach
Saluting Captain Benbow
Always out of reach
It’s quiet when the tide’s low

Climbing up the cliffs
You can see for miles far
The boat that ran adrift
Is sitting on the sandbar

Laughing at the waves…

#72 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 9:09 pm

#91 Cici on 05.21.21 at 10:15 pm
Remus really does look like Garth, LOL… they both have the same handsome, chiseled and hairy face ;-)

And what a nice companion for a 7-year old boy.

—————————————–

When the boy was 7 he could still lift the dog up. Maybe I will send that photo in to see if Garth will post. I could lift the boy up at that point too. Nobody is lifting anybody up anymore.

Remus is a lot like Garth, thoughtful, introspective, educated, wise, and caring, but with a fun side. And a mutt.

#73 Bezengy on 05.22.21 at 9:10 pm

#45 Wrk.dover on 05.22.21 at 5:10 pm

——————-

Brother was project manager for hundreds of wind turbines in Ontario. Building inspector showed up to inspect a new unit one day, probably to justify the $10k per unit building permit. Bro asks the guy to climb up and inspect the work, his reply, ”are you nuts?”

#74 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 9:16 pm

#67 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 8:36 pm

#53 Ustabe on 05.22.21 at 6:52 pm
#47 Sail Away on 05.22.21 at 5:21 pm

I’ll stand by the remainder of my post. More folks are dying due to complications from Covid than are being reported, more minorities and youth are dying due to the type of jobs they hold and that is being under-reported world wide. Research is beginning to capture that.

———–

Source?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=under+reporting+of+covid+deaths

They can’t all be fake sites, can they?

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.22.21 at 9:17 pm

#69 Trojan House on 05.22.21 at 8:40 pm
#29 TurnerNation on 05.22.21 at 2:10 pm

The Canada Beyond 150 reads right out of the Great Reset handbook – “you will own nothing and be happy.”

“Social credits score” is right out of the communist China handbook.
————-
Personally, I’m more concerned about the great assault on the American Democracy brought on by Trump and his disciples.
And I remember The Social Credit Party was fairly conservative.
Shovels for all welfare recipients.
The Zalm.
Faaaantastic.

#76 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 9:23 pm

#99 happygolucky on 05.22.21 at 1:59 am
#78 Nonplused on 05.19.21 at 8:02 pm
#109 Cici on 05.18.21 at 10:28 pm
———————————————-

Well, your post is a bit exaggerated, if you don’t exercise your self assertive Canadian identity they might force upon you (subconsciously) their American exceptionalism, and mind you many left US for Canada in a just last decade.
Those who can’t find Canada on the map are bunch of “ignorants” and dreaded American “suburb”. And another “funny bunch” are Aussie, they know Canada very well by the virtue of Dominion, but still have their own misconceptions…
Happy Victoria Day to All.

————————————-

Exaggeration is what I do (partly as an attempt at humor). I find there is no middle ground any more, so when you want to make a point you have to argue like you are at a flea market in Mexico. They start at $40, you start at $10. The real price was $20 but you still end up paying $25. They are better at it than you are. They do it all day long.

#77 Darren Stapleton on 05.22.21 at 9:29 pm

I got 2 raises in the last 30 months. One time it was 75 cents an hour from $19.25 to $20.00 an hour and the second time $2.00 an hour fro $20.00 to $22.00 an hour. I also got a benefit increase to my dental and medical plan with a increase of $200 more coverage per year and a higher discount on delivery services of 10% to 15%.

I work for a big delivery company in Mississauga for 8 years now and started at $16.25 an hour and got maximum 3.0% raises yearly until the last 30 months 5%+ yearly wage increases. I am hearing from our supervisor that most likely another wage increase is coming of at least 10% over the next 12 to 18 months.

Alot of my friends, family members are getting at least 4.5%+ annual raises since 2017 and they all work in the private sector. Higher inflation 3.5%+ a year is not temporary. This is on the low side too.It is here to stay for at least until 2026.

I would not be surprised to see 4% to 5% variable, 5% to 6% fixed mortgage rates by 2024 to 2026. Get used to pay much more for everything.

#78 Don on 05.22.21 at 9:44 pm

#53 Change your name

#79 Upenuff on 05.22.21 at 10:13 pm

Ryan,

Yet again a great post worthy of enjoying a great long weekend with lots of peaceful rest. God Bless Garth, you and the bloggers for a great website! Stay safe everyone.

Upenuff

#80 Summertime on 05.22.21 at 10:18 pm

#15 Ryan Lewenza on 05.22.21 at 11:53 am
Any comment on why house prices, energy and food and not part of CPI? Except their ‘volatility’ that could easily be addressed by averaging in time. CPI contains some irrelevant derivatives but not core house prices, energy and food, plus allows for substitutes which is BS.

Also Ryan, if the economy is ‘healthy’ why are exactly rates 0.25 % and not 4-5 % as in the good old times when the economy was healthy? On the other hand when the economy was unhealthy in the 70-80-es rates increased to double digits, if the economy is not healthy now, why are the rates that low? Why one is it finally?

Either way I think we are fast reaching a point in time when such inflation ‘statistics’ in order to justify low rates would render any trust in monetary policies and authorities completely impossible.

How can cost of living increase by much more than the official CPI with people further squeezed on quality?

Energy and carbon policies will quickly add fuel to the fire of inflation while collapsing consumption of energy dependent goods and with all these money/credit flying around essentials will become completely unaffordable.

Housing is already completely unaffordable and that for a very long time, but politicians are ignoring it as it creates a ‘wealth effect’ for homeowners and somehow ‘keeps the economy going’.

How would retirees survive on literally melting pensions is beyond me, with cost of living increasing 4-5 times faster than their pensions are indexed.

As for savers, the bank fees and zero rates are adding insult to injury to the fast decreasing purchasing power of their ‘savings’.

The virus situation restricted the velocity of money temporary but what comes after that? 3-4 million dollar homes in Toronto and Vancouver, up 8-10 times in 20 years while reporting annual inflation of 1 -2 %? Really? And that can go on for exactly how much longer?

That talk about ‘transitory’ inflation is just that, talk and ignorance of reality. Some consider it outright intentional lye and deception of desperate incompetent authorities.

If not for central banks rates would have been above 6 %, maybe even higher. How long can the theft from retirees and savers continue?

#81 Base effects on 05.22.21 at 10:26 pm

US wages under pressure graph with wage growth near zero looks entirely due to “base effects” from crazy stimulus the year earlier. Why do you think it looks like wages are slowing to a crawl? Without the base effect it looks strong? Or am I misinterpreting it?

#82 Don Guillermo on 05.22.21 at 11:47 pm

Bad Moon rising.
Slip Sliding away.
Eve of Destruction…..
All wonderfully scatalogical.
How about that classic Freudian ballad.

Ring of Fire…..#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.21 at 9:02 pm
@#66 Ponzies Potty Preamble.
**********************************
I’m sorry guys, this all cringe worthy. Time to move on. Embrace new music and times. The past is full of memories. The future is life. You can do it. I’m 68, make me proud.

#83 Don Guillermo on 05.22.21 at 11:51 pm

#78 Don on 05.22.21 at 9:44 pm
#53 Change your name
*******************************
Hahaha, wrong number, improve your attitude

#84 AACI Homedog on 05.22.21 at 11:57 pm

CCR , Grapevine, 8 minute version.

#85 Ryan Lewenza on 05.23.21 at 12:15 am

tkid “ Hi Ryan, do you have a guess as to where mortgage interest rates will be in 3 years?”

Currently the GoC 5 year yield is below 1% and this could hit 2-2.5% over next few years. So this would put mortgage rates around 4-4.5% in a few years. – Ryan L

#86 Miss Boomer on 05.23.21 at 12:17 am

Why bother ‘analyzing’ if the BOC and Trudeau have teamed up to bastardize the economy for the sake of buying a coming election?

#87 Oakville Rocks! on 05.23.21 at 6:46 am

My introduction to CCR and Bad Moon Rising specifically came on the soundtrack to An American Werewolf in London. What a fantastic collection of music in that movie. And then again, Bad Moon Rising shows up on the soundtrack for The Big Chill.

Growing up for me it was the Beatles, although they were long gone by then, while the Stones were still touring & making hits like Start Me Up. Now, the Stones have solid representation in my vinyl collection.

This old music / new music thing is nonsense. Last I checked Beethoven’s 9th is still a fantastic piece of music. I can’t count the number of times I have played Rossini’s Overture from the Barber of Seville in the past month. And I have been waiting for Rosalia’s new record for over 2 years. But some people insist that there hasn’t been a decent song written since Bach.

Listen to what makes you happy and suits your mood. But please turn down the base, too much base makes me cranky.

#88 Wrk.dover on 05.23.21 at 8:13 am

#68 Nonplused on 05.22.21 at 8:37 pm

The “lift” I remember seeing on the internet was basically a basket and a winch.

_______________________________

Strictly there to use in an emergency to lower a worker with a medical emergency. Dirt cheap planetary gear winch. Like a fire extinguisher, never to be actually used no matter what. Just for looks.

#73 Bezengy on 05.22.21 at 9:10 pm

Every step inspected by each of; supplier, erector, customer. Lots of documentation, and signatures. Real pony show, with unqualified temp inspectors (me once, as a local hire). Not much to see, really. Just bolt tension. Big bolts, big tensions!

#89 Axehead on 05.23.21 at 8:47 am

Ryan,

Telecaster for sure. Easiest guitar to play and sweet twangy sound. Even Jimmy Page had to record the lead for Stairway To Heaven on a Tele. He could do it on no other guitar.

As for CCR, give me ‘Looking out my Back Door’, analogous to the strange political and economic landscape infecting Canada today, with no way back to ‘normal’.

#90 Ryan Lewenza on 05.23.21 at 9:39 am

Base effects “ US wages under pressure graph with wage growth near zero looks entirely due to “base effects” from crazy stimulus the year earlier. Why do you think it looks like wages are slowing to a crawl? Without the base effect it looks strong? Or am I misinterpreting it?”

Good observation! Yes wages did spike last year so given these base effects it shows wages are now on the decline. I suspect some of the government stimulus plans contributed to that uptick in wage growth last year so your point is taken. But there’s still a lot of current slack in the labour market so I still see slow wage growth over the next year helping to keep inflation in check. – Ryan L

#91 Ryan Lewenza on 05.23.21 at 9:47 am

Summertime “ Any comment on why house prices, energy and food and not part of CPI?”

Historically Stats Canada didn’t include home prices in the inflation figures since its an asset versus a consumed good/service. In their view Canadians are benefiting from the appreciation of homes so it was kind of a wash. They have recently updated this by including a measure of home costs in the inflation figures. Some believe this new measure doesn’t go far enough and still underestimates housing cost inflation but they are working on it. As for energy and food, there is a headline inflation which does include energy and food and one ex food and energy so they provide both. I tend to focus on headline inflation since we do eat and drive cars. – Ryan L

#92 Christopher on 05.23.21 at 10:07 am

Did u miss the news? Minimum wages are raising in the States. Mcdonalds giving their employees a starting wage of 15 dollars. BAC is giving their employees a minimum 25 per hour. With excess money supply in the system, this will definitely cause the price of goods to increase at a more rapid pace than the last 10 years. I nation to average 3 to 4 percent… good for debt ridden countries to inflate their debt obligation away.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.23.21 at 10:13 am

@#82 Donny G
“Embrace new music and times.”

++++

I wasnt referring to music…
:0

#94 Dr V on 05.23.21 at 10:22 am

77 Darren – now please tell us about your GICs.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.23.21 at 10:25 am

@#86 Miss Bee
“…Trudeau have teamed up to bastardize the economy for the sake of buying a coming election?”

+++
Total agreement.
The fact that elected officials, ANY elected officials, are able to squander Billions of tax payer dollars on any pet projects with only the goal of getting re-elected as their motivation….disgusting if not criminal.

Its the end of our economy and possibly democracy.

ALL expenditures over a certain amount ( say $1 billion?) should be either approved by referendum( let the taxpayers decide how their money is squandered, NOT posturing, politically correct, political gadflies with remolding society in their idea of “perfection” and or a cynic might suggest……..dumping billions for something so basic and crass as …….reelection ).
OR
Another level of bureaucrats that would look at any major proposals , weigh the pros and cons and give their nod.
Unfortunately this is Canada. Land of bureaucrats, that are either politically appointed of have slept their way to the top and acquired their status merely by attrition/retirement clearing a path to the holiest of holiest executive bathrooms.

Nah.
Lets stick with referendums. Cheaper, faster and the taxpayers could only blame themselves.

#96 Dharma Bum on 05.23.21 at 10:30 am

Nice little nostalgic romp down music memory lane today.

It really is quite astonishing how a huge portion of that style of music – late sixties through early/mid seventies – has truly stood the test of time and keeps getting rediscovered by new generations. The songs – melodies and lyrics – are, in many cases, profound and enduring. Like my patience.

Enjoy it while you can, kiddos. Dystopia is right around the corner.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.23.21 at 10:31 am

I should have said “snoozed” their way to the top rather than “slept”.
Slept denotes a sexist label and I merely meant to suggest sloth like bureaucrats acquiring the next highest position through attrition.
Apologies if I offended anyone , of any gender, who assumed I was inferring that some people might sleep with the boss to get ahead in their careers ( although uber rich geek Bill Gates corporate trysts do come to my jaundiced mind)
Anywho that was not my intent with my poor choice of words….
Fartzy out.

#98 Sail Away on 05.23.21 at 11:03 am

What a difference a year makes!

Last year Trump slapped Canada with softwood lumber tariffs:
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/trade/article/22014133/trump-slaps-duty-on-canada-lumber-intensifying-trade-fight

This year, the US Commerce Department is doubling softwood lumber tariffs: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6036806

Last year, Trump put kids in cages: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44518942.amp

This year, a surge in migrants leads to packed migrant children’s shelters: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/politics/migrant-children-shelters.html

…and so on…

#99 Don Guillermo on 05.23.21 at 12:00 pm

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.23.21 at 10:13 am
@#82 Donny G
“Embrace new music and times.”

++++

I wasnt referring to music…
:0
==========================

You’re correct. I reacted to your post too fast. I guess I’m just burnt out with endless 70’s & 80’s music everywhere. I loved it in its day. My apologies.

#100 IHCTD9 on 05.23.21 at 12:31 pm

#11 NoName on 05.22.21 at 11:23 am
One of the question that I ask people is who they like more Rolling Stones ot Beatles. So far only 2 people answered Rolling Stones, why is that. And if you are playing guitar i thend to aks what you like more fender strat ot lespaul. I don’t play any instruments i just like music.
My answers would be rolling stones and fender strat. But i am steel wondering why people like thise triangle funny looking guitars, yes tracktor i am looking at you.
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I’ve never owned a Flying V, but it’s definitely on the bucket list. I’ve toyed with making one from a Solo kit, as most flying V’s out there I find ugly. Both my electrics are “superstrats”. I’d like to add an SG and LP style someday too.

Have to go slow when looking at guitars as you could quickly end up owning a pile of them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zb8gB57OAw

Oh, Beatles and Stratocasters!

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.23.21 at 12:44 pm

#97 CEF
Initially, I scrolled past your comment #95.
Then #97 made me curious.
I’m in a gracious mood this morning, so I accept your apology.

#102 Faron on 05.23.21 at 1:05 pm

#96 Dharma Bum on 05.23.21 at 10:30 am

Enjoy it while you can, kiddos. Dystopia is right around the corner

I think that’s precisely what boomer’s parents were saying during that era. 30 years from now our kids will be saying it. Etc.

Bitcoin down another 20% overnight. Time to see if my hypothesis holds. What once was $2T+ on paper is sliding below $1T. TSLA’s bitcoin is now underwater. Lot of margin calls coming down the pipe. May have to sell some equities. That $1.6M mouldy bung in Vancouver is gonna look like a much less good idea… Meanwhile companies that actually make money will forge ahead +- some market turmoil if the historically high levels of margin debt are forced to come in a bit.

Greetings from a lazy morning at anchor in the Gulf Islands. Maybe poke around the trails after the 4th cuppa joe. Let me know when the dystopia arrives.

#103 Repurchase Disagreement on 05.23.21 at 5:46 pm

#14 Ryan

If you were looking for a Les Paul…

https://rumbleseatmusic.com/products/1959-gibson-les-paul-standard-sunburst/