The reopening trade continues. You ready?
Jobless claims in the States have fallen to the lowest point in the pandemic. Ontario is announcing its reopening plan. Quebec’s already there. In NYC a mask-burning party took place on East 51st Street. “Vaccinated New Yorkers, liberated by the coronavirus vaccination and repealed protocols, torched their medical, surgical, and cloth face coverings as “Burn, Baby, Burn!” is performed by the iconic musical group, The Trammps,” the promoter gushed. And I hear live fans may be watching the Leafs-Habs game in Montreal.
From a disgraceful start, Canada has now vaxxed half its citizens. By the time Labour Day happens, or even the August holiday, it’s quite likely we’ll have a higher immunity rate than the US (at least for first doses). Canadians are more compliant, after all. Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.
With escape from the slimy little pathogen’s grip come inflation, rate increases, tax hikes (after the election) and sustained market gains as rising corporate profits bring P/E ratios down. As mentioned here, techs are waning and traditional value stocks are ascending. The recent gut-wrenching volatility with cryptos is probably part of this – more proof normal people should not own Bitcoin, that doggy thing, Eth or any of the other 5,000 varieties of fake money recently invented. Oh, and forget NFTs. History will look back on those as true examples of a world that lost its way.
Well, this all means B&D portfolios should end up having a great 2021. We’re certainly on that path now. Those poor homeless moisters who seized on the 20% price drop in downtown condos last November and December will be happy they did so. In contrast, those who fled to non-commutable hick towns where people wear baseball caps backwards, inside their vehicles, may well regret it. Work-from-home is doomed. The real estate price pendulum is about to swing again.
Yesterday we asked about your own WFH experience and intentions in a sloppy little survey. Over 3,400 of you responded, making this as legitimate a sampling on the subject as any other.
The results are below. Some highlights:
First, this blog is a WFH haven with almost 80% claiming work-from-home status – when only 20% of the workforce is in the same boat. Just imagine all the underwear. Three-quarters expect this gig to end, however, being called back to the office full-time or in hybrid way. Two-thirds actually want back in, mostly to see humans again. A third say they’ve suffered because of the isolation and almost an equal number think they are less productive after a year of this Covid incarceration. And check out the vax rates. What an obedient pack of blog dogs!
What does this suggest, coming from an audience of people who are prime WFHers?
Yeah, it can’t last. It won’t. It can’t. We’re not built this way, to work remotely from colleagues, hived off in our own small society, barred from the inconsequential but essential banter of daily lives. People need people. Employers need interacting workers, not maladjusted bots on the other end of a Zoom call, sans pants. The return-to-work event will reinforce the reopening trade, plus mark the unleashing of a torrent of savings. The amount of money transferred from the government to individual bank accounts during the pandemic was epic. It’s estimated we have $200 billion to spend.
In short, this is no year to sit in cash. Q3 and beyond could make history. Now, go service the car and practice flirting.
About the picture: “Have read your columns/blog for years. I even clipped your column from the newspapers in the mid/late 80’s,” says Edward. “But alas your warnings did not stop me from buying and sitting on real estate for over a decade with no gain. Yes I remember the 90’s. Now, about the dog. A couple of years back you had a fellow reader with a dog needing a home. I replied promising a good life to the soon to be orphaned. When my wife found out I was interested in another dog, we previously had a Black and a Chocolate Lab, she pounced, we soon completed the Lab colour spectrum with a Yellow. So we named her Garth. Just kidding…This is Samara, she is a young yellow lab, she just turned 2. She loves the cottage life, where she lives with her WFH owners, swimming in the lake, chasing tennis balls, and chewing sticks.”
117 comments ↓
Habs in 6
1 the West – don’t you mean Labs 24/7?
WFH is great but miss happy hour downtown, and the hot women all dressed in their best.
#93 miketheengineer on 05.19.21 at 10:06 pm
Garth et al:
The vaxxx question…big one. If your employer states, you must take vaccine or you won’t have a job. You take it. Then you get something nasty the next day and go off on sick leave. Or long term. Can you sue the employer for damages for being forced to take the Vaxxx under duress with threats of job loss? Just curious how the law works and how employers may be liable for the few isolated cases where someone actually gets sick after taking the Vaxxx. I lost my job due to restructing recently and the people doing the interviewing have been asking me about covid poking to see if I have taken the Vaxxx…
There are others that say, “my body, my choice”. If that statement applies to a segment of Canadians, it should apply to all Canadians for all medical conditions
**********************
I’m pretty sure it’s just like if your employer insists that everyone working on scaffolding must wear a safety harness and clip-in. If you are a 1 in a million case where you fall a very short survivable distance but hang yourself by your safety rope your family can’t sue.
This is the worst part.
I already dumped all my dry powder into indexes and prefs. But given markets are going to the moon in the next 4-8 months, I’m looking at my unused line of credit and my rainy day savings.
It’s supposed to be my emerg fund in case of everything going sideways. But, shoot, it’s looking mighty tempting to use that leverage for even more stellar gains. VOO and PFF. But I also used to be a croupier, so I know what happens when folks gamble with funds they have earmarked or othet things. Ooh the decisions!!
For Dolce & Crew.
Sweeden halts PCR tests. Wow just like the ‘old days’ when we managed everything else.
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/v/vagledning-om-kriterier-for-bedomning-av-smittfrihet-vid-covid-19/
“The Public Health Agency of Sweden has developed national criteria for assessing the freedom of infection in covid-19.
The PCR technology used in tests to detect viruses cannot distinguish between viruses capable of infecting cells and viruses incapacitated by the immune system and therefore these tests cannot be used to determine whether someone is contagious or not.
The recommended criteria for assessing freedom of infection are therefore based on stable clinical improvement with fever-free for at least two days and that it has been at least seven days since symptoms began. For those who have had more pronounced symptoms, at least 14 days since the onset and for the sickest, individual assessment of the treating physician applies.”
………………
Watch how FAST this moves with the “re-opening”. No we ain’t getting anything back for free. There is a price. Those whacky Globalists. Our Soft Coup/Colour Revolution took place that week in March 2020.
https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/05/otoole-agrees-with-trudeau-quebec-can-change-constitution-by-themselves/
“Conservative leader Erin O’Toole says he’s in agreement with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that Quebec can change the Canadian constitution all by itself.
Erin O’Toole made the comment to Montreal’s La Presse after Trudeau confirmed Tuesday federal government lawyers said it appears Quebec is okay going it alone.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also gave his party’s approval.
But moments after Trudeau made the comments, Calgary MP Michelle Rempel Garner said Alberta, too, should be allowed to play in the constitutional sandbox.”
RE: #5 Rook on 05.20.21 at 1:09 pm
I already dumped all my dry powder into indexes and prefs. But given markets are going to the moon in the next 4-8 months, I’m looking at my unused line of credit and my rainy day savings.
=======================================
If you’ve got a proper Garthish balanced portfolio, just continue investing as you normally would. If I’ve learned anything from my years of investing, it is that people are terrible at predicting the future. Trying to do so results in worse performance on average than if you’d just followed the formula of keeping your equities and fixed income in their preset ratios.
#5 Rook on 05.20.21 at 1:09 pm
This is the worst part.
I already dumped all my dry powder into indexes and prefs. But given markets are going to the moon in the next 4-8 months, I’m looking at my unused line of credit and my rainy day savings.
…I also used to be a croupier, so I know what happens when folks gamble with funds they have earmarked or othet things. Ooh the decisions!!
———–
Breathe deep. Relax. Review other times people thought things were going to the moon.
Charlie Munger says: “Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.”
Stay financially safe.
#5 Rook on 05.20.21 at 1:09 pm
This is the worst part.
I already dumped all my dry powder into indexes and prefs. But given markets are going to the moon in the next 4-8 months, I’m looking at my unused line of credit and my rainy day savings.
It’s supposed to be my emerg fund in case of everything going sideways. But, shoot, it’s looking mighty tempting to use that leverage for even more stellar gains. VOO and PFF. But I also used to be a croupier, so I know what happens when folks gamble with funds they have earmarked or othet things. Ooh the decisions!!
*********************
Leverage is so unfair. 2% interest on a 1 million dollar crack shack? No problem!
Got a 7 figure balanced PF and want to buy some more on margin or use a LOC? 7-8% please.
#3 Polecat on 05.20.21 at 12:59 pm
WFH is great but miss happy hour downtown, and the hot women all dressed in their best.
———————-
Yes.
That’s civilization.
From today forward, I plan to model my outlook on today’s pooch. Let’s play ball…
No, not ready…. :(
Losing an hour a day in commute is going to suck. Nobody has time for that. :(
“ Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.”
The overall vaccination numbers could be a major surprise even here. Talking about voluntary compliance, not coerced by schools, travel industry, employers etc.
Yes comrade. You are right. Canadians are more compliant.
Until I can get a haircut or go to a beach or park without risking a good tasing, all this talk of reopening and how great it’ll be is way premature. A crisis is always worse near the end.
Garth, please refrain from discussing the “the Leafs-Habs game in Montreal”, for today’s or future matches
This may be a very traumatic time for Toronturds and GTAHoles.
We should all be concerned about more sports stress causing hundreds more bullets to fly all over that wasteland and more murderous psychopathic narcissism on the roadways there.
Some consolation for those in Toronthole, the Make Believes-Haves series will mean little, fortunately, in this 2021 Fake NHL Season. Whoever wins the cup this year will ultimately be forgotten.
So typical for Toronturds to get excited about their chances when things mean so little. Kind of like their obsession with overpriced real estate.
(“Haves” btw, refers to a franchise, Montreal, “having” actual competence and recognition in a city that is not a self-absorbed sinkhole of losers in tiny glass-walled overpriced condos. Games between these two teams may also be referred to as “Haves v. Have-nots”)
Go Haves Go!!!!
@#1 The West on 05.20.21 at 12:45 pm
Habs in 6
–
LMAO
The ‘work from haven’ might be explained by demography. Alberta has had a mandatory work from home order since December. Garth, will you ever give us a provincial breakdown of your blog dogs?
Be sure to separate out Van Isle which is different than the rest of BC in so many ways…
‘Work from home haven’……damn tablet.
“Oh, and forget NFTs. History will look back on those as true examples of a world that lost its way.”
For those wondering what an NFT is, here’s a paraphrasing of a quick explainer I found making the rounds on the internet.
Imagine you walk into the Louvre and see the original Mona Lisa, and say to yourself “wow, I’d like to own this.”
A man standing next to you says “if you give me 65 million dollars, I will waste enormous amounts of electricity by running my air conditioning 24/7 for 3 months with the windows open in order to give you a receipt of purchase for this painting.”
So you make the purchase and they give you the receipt, and then they walk to the back of the Louvre to a broom closet and put a post-it note on the wall inside reading “The Mona Lisa is owned by ‘your name'”, so anyone who wants to know who owns the Mona Lisa will need to know to look in that particular broom closet.
You then obviously ask “So, can I take the Mona Lisa home now?” And the man looks at you incredulously and exclaims “You fool, you absolute buffoon, you only bought the receipt that SAYS you own it, you can’t actually buy the ACTUAL Mona Lisa, but you can take this.”
He then gives you a replica poster of the Mona Lisa in a cardboard roll that is normally sold in the Louvre gift shop. Also, the person who sold you the receipt of purchase obviously has at no point in time actually owned the actual Mona Lisa themselves.
If this explanation doesn’t make any sense and you are struggling to see how anyone could be satisfied with this kind of transaction, you have understood it perfectly.
— Economic Shutdowns, only for 2 weeks! Tightening the screws on the Least Coast (The East side of the Berlin Wall is the poor side). You think this system will be going away any time soon?
. Nova Scotia extends shutdown until 2nd week of June (globalnews.ca)
.Manitoba is the country’s COVID-19 hotspot and officials say the province could face more restrictions if the number of cases doesn’t start falling soon. (cbc.ca)
—
— The Science is way different up here.
“Falling COVID-19 test numbers pose ‘huge problem’ for reopening in Ontario, experts warn”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-testing-ontario-reopening-1.6030981
—Variants can do that. We got one for each country!! Hundreds to go.
.Restrictions reimposed as virus resurges in much of Asia (taiwannews.com.tw)
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4206538
In Taiwan, the surge is being driven by the more easily transmissible variant first identified in Britain
——–
This is concerning. We shut down the economy for years to save lives?! Now this.
http://alexschadenberg.blogspot.com/2021/05/ontario-euthanasia-deaths-increase.html
The Ontario data indicates that in the first four months of 2021 there were 853 reported assisted deaths. April 2021 had the highest number of assisted deaths ever with 241.
As of April 30, 2021 there has been 7549 reported assisted deaths in Ontario since legalization. 7547 were euthanasia deaths (lethal injection) and 2 were assisted suicide deaths (lethal prescription).
@#16 Missed you dude / dudette. Glad you are okay.
GO LEAFS GO!
Toronto in 5.
And yet another fine mess the FEDS have created….
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repo-crisis-looms-feds-reverse-repo-usage-soars-351bn-fifth-highest-ever
So to protect the USD and inflation, raise interest rates to attract more investment in T-Bills?
Umm ok, then what happens to personal debt when inflation increases, % rates increases?
Something has to give….Since 2009 it’s only gotten worse and NO Politician will have the guts to tell the truth.
Go Habs,
The problem with that survey was that if someone selected “NO” on question 1 because they didn’t WFH, they still had to complete the rest of the survey for it to be accepted by the system. But a “NO” made most other following questions irrelevant. So 20% of the respondents had to fudge answers to complete it, making the survey invalid.
None of my work slacks fit me anymore.
At least my sweats have a drawstring.
I’ve been going through the KFC drive thru like every week since the pandemic
” In contrast, those who fled to non-commutable hick towns where people wear baseball caps backwards, inside their vehicles, may well regret it”
Ever been to Calgary?
From a disgraceful start, Canada has now vaxxed half its citizens. By the time Labour Day happens, or even the August holiday, it’s quite likely we’ll have a higher immunity rate than the US (at least for first doses). Canadians are more compliant, after all. Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.
———
Garth, there’s enough of those Trump MAGA nuts here and they breed like roaches. Also, they’re highly resistant to fumigation. Unless ongoing vigilance is clearly adhered to, we may get an infestation. And then, it’ll be worse than covid. Mark my words. Mark my words.
Garth…. The recent gut-wrenching volatility with cryptos is probably part of this
************
Not exactly.
Reason is next:
The People’s Bank of China issued a statement stating that digital tokens cannot be used to pay for goods and services. Moreover, financial and payment services are prohibited from specifying prices in cryptocurrencies. This was reported in the official WeChat account of the Central Bank.
https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/china-bans-institutions-from-cryptocurrency-activities-2510301
And as result China Central Bank new rules….
Bitcoin fell below the psychologically significant $ 40,000 mark on Wednesday morning, May 19, amid news of new cryptocurrency bans in China.
In a matter of hours, Bitcoin fell by more than $ 4,000 and tested at least $ 38,500. This is the lowest price since the beginning of February. Over the course of the day, the main cryptocurrency lost 12%, and over the week – more than 30%.
The China factor was but one reason crypto crashed. There are several others. There will be many more. This is largely a sham investment. – Garth
#26 Dave on 05.20.21 at 3:36 pm
Ever been to Calgary?
**************************************
Absolutely, I moved to Calgary from GTA decades ago. Huge upgrade in quality of life.
“Dave’s not here man”
Interesting how some answers seem so contradictory once again.
“First, this blog is a WFH haven with almost 80% claiming work-from-home status – when only 20% of the workforce is in the same boat.”
Unsurprising, much like the surveys that reveal how many more read this blog while making far above the top 10% than actually make the top 10%.
I just listened to Doug & Christine. I can translate; We are flailing as hard as we can in all directions. Oh and he thinks Santis is doing a good job (should tell you something).
I wouldn’t be so optimistic about near future of world economy. Some world known econimist Egon von Greyerz has interesting opinion. In past he didn’t do mistakes
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/everything-fire
A very positive and optimistic post Garth. It’s good to read some positive news with a bright outlook.
Everyone gets a rose and pony this year except for the real estate investors who will be wiped out by the pendulum.
Extremism weakens credibility. – Garth
Garth… It’s estimated we have $200 billion to spend.
************
Personally me, I’m not sure that folk will spend this money soon. May be in one year not more than $50 billions. Why? Normal people after full lockdown economy not sure that same situation will not repeating in next couple years again. My expectation – 4 wave, 5 wave … may be 10 wave . Until….
I’ll be quiet with my opinion here.
So should keep this free money for rainy days.
“By the time Labour Day happens, or even the August holiday, it’s quite likely we’ll have a higher immunity rate than the US”
Per the above (less US claim) and for the Question 12 respondents using CTV Vax Tracker data* from May 19 follows.
ALL 32M Beaves vax’d by:
Sept 23
[Trudeau finally gets his all vax’d that want to be by Sept end]
Dates at different herd immunity rates. Garth gets his Labour Day but not Aug 2…for now, though with one exception**:
70% Aug 16
75% Aug 22
80% Aug 29
[Closest were the 2 month respondents, all 17.72% of them, actually its 3 to 3.5 months]
The Provinces, Territories have been on a vaxing tear, juggernaut:
https://i.imgur.com/m2cE9kw.png
% of population, 32M, vaccinated:
Single dose = 56.2%
Double dose = 4.6%
Overall single and/or double = 30.4%
———————
*Specific data
– Cdns 15 yrs or older, ALL, per StatCan = 31,966,591 (63,933,182 doses total, 2 doses/person)
– 7-day vax average = 351,512 doses/day
– Doses Administered May 19 inclusive:
….1st dose = 17,958,575
….2nd dose = 1,486,018
….Total = 19,444,593
– Remaining doses to be administered = 44,488,589
– # days to ALL 32M vax’d @ Latest Doses/day = 127
….70% herd immunity = 89 days
….75% herd immunity = 95 days
….80% herd immunity = 101 days
———————
**Somebody in Canada WILL be celebrating, burning masks, hugging on Aug 2 and on CANADA DAY:
https://i.imgur.com/QalNqG3.png
Garth…. This is largely a sham investment.
***********
I agree 100% ! Garth, can you in future make post about crypto currency risk for investors. Folk still very optimistic about crypto. Would be interesting to have your opinion with arguments.
I just ordered underwear from Amazon. Yes, I still wear underwear working from home and they do eventually wear out.
When I saw the title, I thought you were talking about Line 5 !?
Everyone gets a rose and pony this year except for the real estate investors who will be wiped out by the pendulum.
Extremism weakens credibility. – Garth
———————————————-
Only my attempt at humor. Point well taken.
#35 VladTor on 05.20.21 at 4:44 pm
Garth…. This is largely a sham investment.
***********
I agree 100% ! Garth, can you in future make post about crypto currency risk for investors. Folk still very optimistic about crypto. Would be interesting to have your opinion with arguments.
—
Biggest risk is that it gets regulated to oblivion in enough countries that it ceases to be trustworthy. That it can be swung 20% by the tweeting of a megalomaniac is another risk (instability). The technology certainly has applications, but in a few decades the space will probably look quite different from today’s landscape.
#6 TurnerNation
I like quirky your stuff but give Sweden a break. I like that country and they are not doing well at all vs. the rest of the EU, scroll down to “14-day COVID-19 case notification rate per 100 000, weeks 18-19” on this page:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
They are doing way worse than AB and MN, cases per million & now 100K:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-in-the-u-s-how-do-canada-s-provinces-rank-against-american-states-1.5051033
The EU MSM and myself included know that the “Swedish Experiment” has been a failure and for some time now.
Swedes now believe their Gov has failed them. Pay little attention to face saving edicts coming from Gov Sweden. I can’t remember the exact numbers, but in a very recent Swedish poll the majority do not think Tegnell et. al. have done a good job. Here, balanced DW on the topic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3JnNJYTXBc
And as for Tegnell and his acolytes that ECDC map ought to tell you how full of horse manure that knucklehead is. Can’t admit he was wrong. Also, last year in effect he:
EUTHANIZED their elderly in care homes, no oxygen, all diverted to hospitals, they were given morphine to alleviate the pain before death.
Give it a rest on Sweden, they’ve suffered enough and still are.
For example, Covid stats for my Region of FVG, Italia yesterday, 1.2M people:
11 new cases
3 deaths
13 in ICU
64 hospitalized
0.51% test positivity rate
Rt = 0.65.
Cases/100K = 24
June 1 we are near completely open, save mass gatherings like at a Football (ours) stadium, still reduced numbers but not closed down.
Now go back to the Gov Sweden Health site and compare the above FVG numbers to their numbers for 10.23M people, factor away.
Any way you cut it, believe little coming out of Mr. Tegnell’s mouth, it’s all face saving BS. Divert attention from his failure.
————————
Having said the above, I still think the EU opening for the Great God Tourist € is a mistake. Too early. Not enough vaccinated and the same goes for Canada and the US.
We’ll see if I am wrong, I hope so.
#93 miketheengineer on 05.19.21 at 10:06 pm
Garth et al:
The vaxxx question…big one. If your employer states, you must take vaccine or you won’t have a job. You take it. Then you get something nasty the next day and go off on sick leave. Or long term. Can you sue the employer for damages for being forced to take the Vaxxx under duress with threats of job loss? Just curious how the law works and how employers may be liable for the few isolated cases where someone actually gets sick after taking the Vaxxx. I lost my job due to restructing recently and the people doing the interviewing have been asking me about covid poking to see if I have taken the Vaxxx…
There are others that say, “my body, my choice”. If that statement applies to a segment of Canadians, it should apply to all Canadians for all medical conditions
******
There are international laws regarding any medical procedures such as the Nuremberg Code, The UN Human Rights statements, The Helsinki Declaration and UNESCO’s Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights. They all say the same thing: people can not be coerced, let alone mandated, into being part of a medical experiment ( not approve yet, just emergency something or other). It’s highly illegal. Yet that is what’s happening. And no, it’s not about the level of risk involved, it’s simply illegal. These codes and declarations were written to counter the acts of totalitarian regimes, remember that.
The moral, ethical and socially-responsible action is to be vaccinated. If you refuse you’re a free rider and deserve our collective scorn. Only the selfish and cowardly speak like you, hiding behind fake libertarianism. Get dosed or get off this site. – Garth
#13 Tripp on 05.20.21 at 2:39 pm
“ Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.”
The overall vaccination numbers could be a major surprise even here. Talking about voluntary compliance, not coerced by schools, travel industry, employers etc.
—————
Garth deserves a lot of credit.
Stayed on message and nuked the anti vaxers and Covid deniers.
TurnerNation – you’re the best. Seriously. Huge fan. Love that you don’t take things at face value and peel the onion back to expose the potential rot. Please keep it up. We need more of you in Canada. We are way too passive up here. You’re the first commenter I look for on all articles and I pass along your comments to cynical family members too. I’m with you. I think this is a long-game (calculated) being played by our Kamp rulers. This is no longer about incompetence or health. There is something bigger at play. Once you clear that mental hurdle to realize that all is possible, you start to look at life differently. This is likely a reset of society moment, let’s see where it shakes out. Anyways, keep it up, and course Garth too firstly!!
First time commenter
Yeah, it’s a shame we’re getting to spend more time with the people we truly care about most vs. a bunch of actors and being stuck in traffic… and all the while significantly improving the way we work. Went from seeing my daughter 5 hrs during the weekdays to 20+… just saying.
As a human being this liked Tweet by Minister Anand, a habitual “Like” fangurl of such VAX Olympics Tweets and from Minister François-Philippe Champagne, VAX Olympics fanboi par extraordinaire pisses me off:
https://i.imgur.com/GdyKDT0.png
Case in point in the “lets rub their noses in their mediocre vax effort and how mighty and well run Canada is by contrast”:
Scroll down the bar chart and observe India and Brazil, both in the fight of their lives vs. their variant, and without vax to combat it, overwhelmed ICUs, oxygen shortages, recent own country records in deaths and cases, etc.
This is not the first time for them, habitual distorted VAX Olympics stats lovers (at 30% overall vax’d, 5% overall but still find some number where they are the Gold Medal winners).
Contrast their Tweet to that from the EU “we are in this, the World, together Tweet”:
https://i.imgur.com/RByDepB.png
You see none of that VAX Olympics BS from the EU that Gov Canada Anand and Champagne engage in habitually.
———————————
And what’s even more INFURIATING to me is that 89% of Canada’s VAX to date is from the:
European Union
and they have the gall to include Germany, Italy, France, Austria on their happy little chart. Rub our noses into our vaxing inadequacies vs. the Canada the Norse Vaxing Gods of Valhalla.
Many of us in the EU, like me, are having to wait longer for their 2nd dose so other countries can be vax’d as well and I am good with that BUT when I see such habitual crap coming from 2 Gov Canada Ministers I say this to you Canada:
Hang your head in SHAME. Heartless. Thoughtless.
Same for you Trudeau since you do nothing about these 2 Clown Car Ministers.
Garth, you keep stating that 50% of Canadians are vaccinated. May I ask where you are getting your data? According to Bloomberg, only 39.4% of us have gotten the first shot – and only 3.3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?cmpid=BBD052021_CORONAVIRUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210520&utm_campaign=coronavirus
Please cite your source. There is a big difference in the vaccination percentages. Thanks
Here. – Garth
A full-blown lockdown pandemic to opening up and the border, hmmm?
Anyways, Ian Lee used to be on the news regularly but not anymore, hmmm?
On video Ian Lee talks to Anthony Furey on Canada’s economy.
What happened to the other flu strains? Not hearing anything. Did they disappear? No debates, no critical thinking, nothing, hmmm.
I qualified (and still do) when answering questions about current status regarding the Canada Recovery benefit. It has been a small lifeline to keep me afloat and buffer the damage from the pandemic.
I received a letter of review claiming that I have turned down work, not had a 50% reduction in pay, and have not provided the necessary banking information.
I turned to self-employment as a means to make a living in 2019 after sustaining a potentially job-ending injury outside of work; however, still held that position for the past 15 years that I was hoping to return to, but more than likely probably won’t be able to.
I have not turned down work that I am capable of doing, have had a reduction in pay of about 90% as clearly indicated on income and bank statements submitted to the CRA, and gave them everything they have asked for, including bank statements. Even my accountant said all was valid.
I put the word “capable of doing” regarding work because I have a government job that I have been physically incapable of showing up for due to an outside injury (most likely job ending at this point) that I have been trying to recover from. I have been trying to keep my foot in with my employer and get back to it. They are big and they have lots of opportunities. They don’t bounce cheques. It also has one of those defined pensions that I have been contributing to for the past 12 years. However, even though it has not been admitted by anyone, CRA triggered a move of termination by my employer 2 months after a review of my Canada Benefit started, which is now in the process of being overturned (due to unjustified termination of an employee on sick leave that I am told will take months to conclude), because nobody even cared to properly investigate and which is why I think (can’t confirm this) that the CRA claimed I turned down work, which is not the case.
Anyways, because they already paid me out half of this benefit I now have to pay them back that amount – no word on interest and waiting to hear back – but I am assuming they will ding me on the interest too.
My self-employment has taken a huge hit and I am working hard to try and get more contracts and make some income. I see the Canada payments forwarded to me since last September as a loan. I never went for CERB or any other benefit.
And I can tell you that I never would have gone for this benefit if knowing it would be switched and demanded back. This gave me a false sense of security/confidence to buffer the hit from the pandemic.
The debt hole just got deeper.
They said I can appeal with about a 4-month turnaround, but I think I will cut my losses and dig deep due to the risk of paying even more interest on another rejection, given how messed up this is being handled and how much longer it would take. There is a queue of about 4-5 months for getting any answers. They keep telling me they are overwhelmed with claims. And there is also the worry of having to pay back the full benefit, even if being approved for it with an appeal, as who knows what they will do down the line and new decisions. I have no trust in this government on this benefit based on my experience so far.
I have been diligent enough to keep some cash to pad a downturn like this but was hoping to invest my cash pile in the market downturn – that is until I got knocked off my feet at the same time as the downturn and froze, thinking I would need cash on hand, which I did and still do. And with putting in a benefits claim, the CRA got to view virtually all of my accounts and still claimed there was more they wanted to see. They used the benefit as an excuse to rifle through everything I have on paper and resulted in no benefit. I have nothing to hide.
This benefit was also reported on my tax filing and they told me there is a form to adjust this next tax filing season – supposedly it will adjust down and balance out next year.
I am hoping the opening of the economy creates some work opportunities to put my skills back into action so that I can start earning a good living again. I have lots of education and experience and need to get back out there. I am living off of my savings, which was close to 100k in cash at the start of the pandemic, which has now dropped by half, and due to uncertainty, and I have been holding back from investing to keep a bloated cash pile due to a severely damaged cash flow and balance sheet. This is the first time in 20 years that my operating cash flow has gone so deep into the red and the Canada Recovery Benefit gave me a false sense that made that hole even deeper. I have taken the past year to sharpen my competitiveness and am ready to compete for another good-paying job. I hope you are right about the re-opening and the unemployment picture improving because I will pretty much lose everything I have if my performance carries on like this for another year, at which point a debt accumulation will initiate as a last resort and eventual debt spiral that will painfully force the liquidation of every asset I have on the way down. The only thing that saves this is a real economy that produces real productivity and paying jobs, not government stimulus money/repayment loans.
#16 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.20.21 at 2:55 pm
“Some consolation for those in Toronthole, the Make Believes-Haves series will mean little, fortunately, in this 2021 Fake NHL Season. Whoever wins the cup this year will ultimately be forgotten.”
Whoever wins the cup will be American, as has been the case since 1993.
Explanations, justifications, rationalisation, excuses, and ignorance be damned.
GET VAXXED. And stay away crypto,the next pandemic. The variants ain’t pretty.
“From a disgraceful start, Canada has now vaxxed half its citizens. By the time Labour Day happens, or even the August holiday, it’s quite likely we’ll have a higher immunity rate than the US (at least for first doses). ”
I think we are already tied with the USA! (for first doses)
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
#6 Turner Nation
No cause for panic or alarm. Sweden has the highest number of COVID cases in the EU right now, so they are trying to limit the spread since only just over 40% of the population has been vaxed to date. Probably just trying to ensure that their health care system doesn’t crumble under the weight of new infections. COVID hospitalizations are expensive and hard to manage.
Once they’ve got at least 70% of the population vaxed, the panic will subside. Case counts are already starting to go down and the death count is low, probably thanks to the vaccines:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0520/1222767-eu-coronavirus/
I’ll work for 30% less if I can wfh 100% of the time. How many others would be willing do the same? After taxes it’s only a 15 percent pay decrease but my cost of living is less than half. Companies would be foolish to ignore that.
#111 IHCTD9 on 05.20.21 at 11:04 am
#96 NoName on 05.19.21 at 10:48 pm
All this for price of model 3…
https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/ford-f-150-lightning-padded-content-bold-pricing-around-40k
———————————–
I always felt that Tesla was going to have a hard time once the big manufacturers came up with desirable electric products. There is no proprietary technology save perhaps the computer software but there are always ways around that.
The electric vehicle market is still tiny. Tesla may have been viable when they had the lion’s share of it, but that won’t last. And at least companies like Toyota know how to get the body panels to line up.
Anyway it will be a while before these vehicles hit the market. They too are being hit by the chip shortage (computer chips, not potato chips, that comes in the fall). Ford has something like 20,000 mostly finish vehicles just sitting around waiting for chips.
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/2021-ford-super-duty-trucks-waiting-for-chips-seen-from-space/
The chip shortage is going to be with us a long time because you can’t exactly just throw a new plant up with spare change. The process is very technical, the equipment very expensive and in short supply, and the technicians hard to come by.
Oh and guess what else is contributing to the chip shortage? Crypto.
https://coinjournal.net/news/nvidia-stripping-crypto-mining-capacity-from-its-rtx-cards/
Yup. Not only are those crazy miners sucking up all the coal produced electricity they can, they are buying up all the computers. That coal and those computers are real world resources that are being squandered to produce a bunch of numbers that go away when the power goes out. I’d rather buy gold. Gold is real, if nothing else. And it only uses coal once.
Don’t get mad at me Garth but:
Your poll has statistical bias.
Latest StatCan Labour Force Survey states:
30% WFH.
Your respondents say 78.9% of them WFH.
The number of respondents is certainly statistically significant, easily so, but there is statistical bias in the informal poll. 2.6X as many WFH in the sample vs. the National average. Thus, statistical bias.
Not all of it. The dosing data squares well enough with the current single/double dose numbers.
——————
Still, I liked the poll. Good you do this sort of thing every so often.
Keep doing it regardless.
Of course more here are WFH than the national average. We don’t let the others in. – Garth
My brother and sister-in-law is in panic now as they are realizing that their $770,000 in mortgage debt and $95,000 in line of credit debt is going to be closer to 4% rather than 2.13% as they thought.
Their debt is 3.5 years left and their combined rate in debt is 2.13% currently with almost $4,000 monthly payments just for this debt. They also have another $350 a month for property taxes, $125 a month for home insurance, $600 a month in car payments, $300 a month for car insurance, $300 a month in gas and their debt keeps piling up. This does not even include food and other necessary living expenses with raising 2 kids. They were not too smart way before the pandemic and 2008 financial crisis, 2000 dot com, teck wreck etc.
They have only $1,000 a month left after all their living expenses, mortgage, car payments, car insurance, gas, property taxes, utilities, food etc. When rates get to closer to 4%, their monthly payments will be increased by $1,100 to $1,200 a month just in extra interest with no principal payments and by that time everything will be much higher in price, cost of living, inflation to property taxes, utilities, taxes, insurance, food etc.
They will also need newer vehicles as they are all 10 to 12 years old. They always laughed at me and my wife for saving so much and the lower interest rates on our GIC’s, term deposits, RRSP’s, TFSA’s, OSB’s etc. but we have no debt for 25 years now. We have socked away at least 25 years in annual income without any interest, returns on that money 0% interest, returns with 3% annual inflation rates with even not including our C.P.P, OAS, monthly LIRA payments.
I think the next 2 years there will be a big hit to many Canadians in debt which they are and no government policies, bankruptcies, credit counseling, debt consolidation can save them. Time to pay the piper.
“Of course more here are WFH than the national average. We don’t let the others in. – Garth”
Here I am in Italia at 036h CET killing myself laughing.
THAT was good Garth.
Too, too funny.
You’re a gentleman and a scholar Garth and much more (e.g., humor, rapier wit, served his country well).
Take care.
The moral, ethical and socially-responsible action is to be vaccinated. If you refuse you’re a free rider and deserve our collective scorn. Only the selfish and cowardly speak like you, hiding behind fake libertarianism. Get dosed or get off this site. – Garth
Wow, 1 nerve hit. I didn’t say not to get vaccinated. I’m already vaccinated. So go and get vaccinated, no-one is stopping anyone. Those codes do exist – just thought I’d point them out. This was about companies forcing things on employees and the possible legal repercussions is all, though obviously it seems I didn’t come across that way. Responding to the question by miketheengineer about employers. Have a good evening. Oh and I’ll stop posting, wouldn’t want to upset anyone. Thanks.
#51 VGRO and chill on 05.20.21 at 6:30 pm
I think we are already tied with the USA! (for first doses)
—
I read recently that the # vaxed per day per capita is now higher in Canada than the US. The Trumpian mouth breathers are, once again, going to ruin a good thing for the US.
“Vancouver, Toronto and Hamilton are the least affordable cities in North America: report”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/affordability-canada-1.6034606
Uummmmm…this should work out well………
“Of course more here are WFH than the national average. We don’t let the others in. – Garth”
Humorous as always, but I have always contended that the majority of readers of this blog are high income earners or have money in the bank for retirement. Why would you be like “I got my mind on my money, money on my mind” if you got no money.
Nothing bores my university age daughters more than discussions about housing or balanced portfolios. They like dogs though.
#58 Mike from Canmore on 05.20.21 at 6:58 pm
“Oh and I’ll stop posting, wouldn’t want to upset anyone. Thanks.”
Please don’t. Garth’s responses are my favorite part of the comments section. That is, when they aren’t directed at me.
#56 Dale Galderhaun on 05.20.21 at 6:56 pm
“$600 a month in car payments”
“They will also need newer vehicles as they are all 10 to 12 years old.”
———————————-
How can they have car payments on 10-12 year old vehicles? Is that for repairs? That is why you buy a Toyota.
#46 Tiger of Winter on 05.20.21 at 6:06 pm
Garth, you keep stating that 50% of Canadians are vaccinated. May I ask where you are getting your data? According to Bloomberg, only 39.4% of us have gotten the first shot – and only 3.3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated.
—————–
In BC, already 60% of the adults have received their first jab.
I’m not too concerned about the actual numbers but the trend and that is uppa, uppa.
Canada had a slow start by now all hands are on deck, and we’re gonna have the Yanks eat our dust.
Lord Stanley’s cup is up for graps again, and we have some Jolly good teams in the race, have we not?
@#61 Nonplused
“Nothing bores my university age daughters more than discussions about housing or balanced portfolios. They like dogs though.”
++++
Unfortunately the majority of people’s eyes glaze over it you start talking about retirement, investing, balancing your savings…
Candy Crush is far more interesting…..
The cruel reality?
Everyone cant be rich.
#46 Tiger of Winter + Garth
Please do some Math:
1. Globe & Mail
1,245,232 ÷ 3.3% = 37,734,303
Not all of the population of Canada is eligible for Vax. 16 yrs or older are eligible, per the Vax Mfrs themselves, so that % number is bunk. Only very recently does Pfizer give a vax for kids 12-15 yrs old. And for the record, as of July 1 2020 there are:
38,005,238 Cdns per StatCan
Globe & Mail Google searched “Canada population” forgot to add “by age group”. 2nd hit after Statista useless data.
2. Bloomberg
19.7M doses OK and 26.3% of what? Overall, that number is incorrect by about 4%, see below. They too are assuming all of the population, the same wrong number per the Globe & Mail above (not all eligible for vaxing).
———————
My Comment today for actual data, taken from CTV Vax Tracker which since March has squared well with Gov Canada numbers or:
% of population, 32M eligible, vaccinated:
Single dose = 56.2%
Double dose = 4.6%
Overall single and/or double = 30.4%
32M = 15 yrs and older since Gov Canada does not give 16 years and older numbers, people that are eligible for vaxing save the recent new Pfizer vax for kids:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501
Certainly closer than the Globe & Mail and Bloomberg using the wrong population numbers, as apparently, they are Google Search challenged and have no idea that StatCan actually tracks the Cdn population AND do not know that ALL are NOT eligible for vaxing in the population.
———————
Stop getting info from some business boffins that are challenged in the Search, Math and Logic departments (and ill informed).
Why I do my own calcs and keep track.
I need to make sure the Beavers will be healthy to take care of my threadbare investment portfolio in Canada.
The crypto market is a great example of the difference between “wealth” and “money”. What is “notional” and what is “real”. When Bitcoin moves up $10,000 in a day, only a few trades were executed, but the balance sheets of all Bitcoin holders move up likewise, creating a lot of “wealth” out of thin air. Only a tiny bit of “money” (relatively) creates billions in new found “wealth”. But that “wealth” cannot be monetized (converted to “money”) unless there is a greater fool. Otherwise a tiny bit of “money” can do to Bitcoin on the way down as it did on the way up. These are all just numbers in a spreadsheet.
My background is in risk management for trading. Yes, we “mark to market” at prevailing prices. But that number is a fiction until accounting settles the deals. The real number is VaR. (Value at Risk) That is where you look at how far your trades could go against you if the imaginary numbers change to something less or a lot less favorable. All future numbers are imaginary or “notional”. Only settled numbers are real.
(PS that is also why wealth taxes don’t work. You are trying to tax a hypothetical number on a spreadsheet, not actual money.)
@ #112 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.20.21 at 11:05 am
How airlines will resume operations after the vast majority of pilots have been laid-off for an extended period, is an economic and personal concern for some. Too bad it went over your head and that you were too lazy to scroll past. Don’t assume that we deeply care about your own comments, either! Cheers
I like Samara’s caramel eyes. Very Jaguar-like.
#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.21 at 7:32 pm
The cruel reality?
Everyone cant be rich.
————————————-
I think you meant “not everyone”. But how many people are there in our society that don’t have a cell phone? Even kids? Certainly there are homeless people but I don’t think we can address that without addressing mental illness and drug use. If we can pack 500,000 immigrants into the country every year, certainly we can find jobs for the folks that are already here that can show up for work. If not, immigration should stop or at least be slowed.
What all this talk of the wealth gap does is make people who are doing relatively ok think life is devastating because some philanderer has a big boat.
As my friend’s dad used to say, “The only difference between the rich and poor in Canada is that the rich smoke more expensive cigars, drink more expensive whisky, date more beautiful women, drive newer cars, and own their own hot tub.”
@#70 Nonplused
“…certainly we can find jobs for the folks that are already here that can show up for work….”
++++
Why would people bother with work when CERB or UBI beckon …. ?
I see trucks and vans with “hel wanted” signs on them day in and day out.
A friend has a 17 year old son who has a part time job driving a truck….for $26 an hour.
Those who want to work…work
Those who avoid work…..suck the taxpayer teat.
We need a prolonged, deep, crushing recession to kick some people in the behind.
Or a war with conscription……
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-warship-illegally-enters-its-territory-s-china-sea-2021-05-20/
#67 Nonplused, PhD
VaR is meaningless for Bitcoin, as the distribution consistency is susp. Even if we miraculously identified the distribution, obvious leptokurtosis (fat tails relative to the normal distribution) makes VaR useless as the left tail could be highly irregular. CVaR is a bit better, but also useless.
A whole bunch of problems with this besides liquidity. Trading risk management is one non-trivial thing. Managing bitcoin risk in a portfolio is a totally different but also non-trivial thing. A challenging and very interesting task.
Ivermectin crushes covid in Delhi
Informative video in which TechLead explains why he has sold all of his crypto holdings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFp86n7QCf0
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz
Couldn’t agree more.
I feel like many people don’t appreciate having a job- not having one and no other source of income (ie government handout) is likely to light their fire.
I always thought that people had to make choices on a risk/reward basis. I feel now there’s simply no risk. Don’t wanna work? Governments got you. Over leveraged with debt and can’t pay? Governments got you. Something in general didn’t go your way? Governments got you.
There’s no downside for people who make poor choices. I couldn’t agree more that we need an absolute barn burner of a recession and little government intervention to straighten this mess out.
#70 Nonplused
“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.” — Epictetus
Hey Garth,
I appreciate the poll and blog as always however I think it’s not really a fair representation to ask if WFH has been tough on your mental health or liberating”. We’re in (hopefully near the end) a pandemic. That would be like asking an international tourist how their vacation to Canada was in 2021. Not the normal experience.
I’ve got two close friends in the GTA. One used to commute about 15 hours a week to/from work. Equates to over 700 hours (or 30 days) a year. Over the span of his career at that rate he would have spent over three years of his life driving on the 400. The other friend commutes half an hour which I think is more reasonable. That’s still 240 hours a year or ten days. The shorter commute friend is a cop so he’s not killing his commute any time soon but my Barrie friend has an extra month a year to spend with his family/fishing/camping/all the other things he likes to do. It’s anecdotal but no amount of water cooler talk or birthday cakes is worth the time/money/mental health toll that commuting took on him for five years or so. We always told him he was crazy to buy in Barrie when he works in Toronto. He said he didn’t mind the drive. After a year and a half not doing it he now agrees that we were right and he was crazy.
I know that’s an extreme example but even at 15 minutes a day each way, you’ve got an extra 120 hours a year (4000+ over the span of a career).
I’m very fortunate in that I only drive to and from work three or four times a month, so I chose the right field for my anti-commute passion lol!
https://www.mikestewart.ca/what-is-a-leaky-condo-and-how-to-avoid-them/
Buying a condo in Vancouver? Beware!
The moral, ethical and socially-responsible action is to be vaccinated. If you refuse you’re a free rider and deserve our collective scorn. Only the selfish and cowardly speak like you, hiding behind fake libertarianism. Get dosed or get off this site. – Garth
——————————————————————
Agree. Our re-opening plan (like, allowing people to leave their houses and businesses to make a dollar) in Ontario is now dependant on a certain percentage of people getting their jab. People will be taking note of those who are getting the first shot available, helping others book theirs, working at vaccine clinics etc.
We are also taking note of those who are refusing to do their part to get us out of this mess. Progress is impressively good right now, so let’s hope the remainder left to be dosed better don’t screw it up for the rest of us.
It is an awkward situation when people (including some health care workers) who have been clearly eligible for months (but refused) are showing up to our hospitals, keeping our ICU beds full (again delaying re-opening), risking death and sometimes orphaned children, all from a preventable situation. Incredibly sad and also embarrassing. Anti-vaxxers have always been free-riders, but usually at no consequence to themselves. This time is different.
Can’t wait to have a beer on a patio.
Hmmmm
One day after the Nanaimo blog topic.
A man shot dead in a Nanaimo Shopping Plaza parking lot.
Suspected Gang retaliation.
3 Brainiacs arrested.
Big city problems in little Nanaimo.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7881942/one-dead-three-in-custody-after-shooting-in-nanaimo-police/
Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.
lmbo, that’s what you think.
My personal opinion is that everyone should get their VAX ASAP. If you don’t you’re an idiot.
Having said that, there is something wrong with a government either forcing people to take the VAX or withholding certain services based on VAX status. In short, I think freedom means that you get to be as stupid as you want, as long as you only hurt yourself.
Now if everyone else around you is vaccinated and you catch the bug and croak, well, too bad, so sad, but you just got yourself a Darwin Award. And you deserved it.
It’s the same argument as freedom of speech. I think you have the right to spew as ignorant or vile crap as you want, as long as no one is physically injured by your stupidity. Being offended by speech is irrelevant as it subjective; one person’s mysogynistic profanity is another person’s deep, and artful Grammy winning music.
Again, the price of freedom is tolerating people doing things that you don’t like and saying things that you don’t like. And the simple reason it all works is that everyday, something you say or do pi$$e$ off someone else. And so we all best get along when we smile, nod, tolerate or ignore as long as no one gets hurt.
Leaf/Hab spitting contest on CBC.
Holey smokes the signage on the boards though!
There are more than six teams now too?
#24 Ryan Hap
Agreed. If you couldn’t work from home, then the rest of the survey didn’t apply.
I did not work from home.
So how to answer:
Has WFH resulted in you spending less and saving more?
Has WFH made you less or more productive?
ahhh … I work, and have to got to work … to, you know, get paid
Breaking News!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAVES 2 HAVE-NOTS 1
What a despicable non-performance yet again by the Make Believes.
Toronthole is such a sewer of failure and incompetence, as shown yet again tonight.
Montreal is an actual world-class city that knows what it means to win. Way to go Habs!
Even the fake crowd noise, 10x louder than at a typical comatose Leafs game, could not get the third-class players and coaches to do anything of value.
Toronturds, now hurry out to buy yourself some tiny condos and slanty-semis at any price – because you are all such amazing WINNERS!!!!
Leafs losing Tavares in a scary moment.
Looks like it will be a good series.
Speed and skill vs. physicality.
National day of mourning has just been declared for the hit on Tavares..
Canadians are more compliant, after all. Fewer Trump MAGA nuts here.
_____________________________________________
Who got a vaccine out with operation warp speed and have it distributed in less than a year? When was the last time that ever happened?
Different message than 6 weeks ago. Did the ghost of Christmas past come to the BOC over the weekend.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-financial-system-review-1.6034006
#72 leebow on 05.20.21 at 8:38 pm
#67 Nonplused, PhD
VaR is meaningless for Bitcoin, as the distribution consistency is susp. Even if we miraculously identified the distribution, obvious leptokurtosis (fat tails relative to the normal distribution) makes VaR useless as the left tail could be highly irregular. CVaR is a bit better, but also useless.
A whole bunch of problems with this besides liquidity. Trading risk management is one non-trivial thing. Managing bitcoin risk in a portfolio is a totally different but also non-trivial thing. A challenging and very interesting task.
—————————————
Totally agree. But I’m not talking about just using a standard model and applying it to Bitcoin. Once all of the other factors including the ones you mention are included, it should be clear that the VaR on Bitcoin is unmanageable. Even just using the volatility would make most people gag, whatever curve you are fitting it to. It is a wild speculation based on nothing more than what the other players around the poker table are willing to bet.
#76 Piet on 05.20.21 at 9:29 pm
#70 Nonplused
“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.” — Epictetus
————————————
Touché.
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.21 at 8:18 pm
@#70 Nonplused
“…certainly we can find jobs for the folks that are already here that can show up for work….”
++++
Why would people bother with work when CERB or UBI beckon …. ?
—————————
A good question.
This is largely a sham investment. – Garth
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto now has a 2.5 Trillion Dollar market cap.. Sham.. errr, right.
Maybe you just don’t get it Garth.
Seems like a lot of other people do.
The FOMO spreads to the USA :
“Real-Estate Frenzy Overwhelms Small-Town America: ‘I Came Home Crying’
Buyers far from big cities lose out to investors and deep-pocket rivals in places where properties until a year ago offered affordable entry to the middle class”
#90 Nonplused, PhD
Y. Still beats real estate speculation at this time.
@#89 DON on 05.20.21 at 11:01 pm
Different message than 6 weeks ago. Did the ghost of Christmas past come to the BOC over the weekend.++++++
The Tiff is just reminding everyone that the boost to the qualifying rate happens in 10 days. A gentle reminder that the leash is being shortened. BOC & OSFI.
Professional Grifters always work in pairs …….
“It’s important to understand that the recent rapid increases in home prices are not normal,” Macklem told reporters. “Even without a shock, some of the factors that cause prices to rise fast could reverse later and that could leave some households with less equity in their homes.”
Still, Macklem said he wouldn’t be raising interest rates to cool demand for housing, as the economy remains too weak. He did, however, endorse the federal banking regulator’s decision to require borrowers to pass a tougher stress test in order to qualify for an uninsured mortgage. (Tiff, Big [email protected])
Don’t panic, Make Believes fans.
John Tavares is alive and safe in hospital, “conscious and communicating”.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/31480061/toronto-maple-leafs-john-tavares-takes-knee-face-carted-ice-1st-period
Even though his season and the Have-Nots are toast, he will still probably be able to spend a few minutes to get his real estate license for his next career.
Then he can participate in slimy blind auctions for slanty semis tiny glass condos and help Toronto do what it does best.
All the best to you John! Your next career will be awesome, helping to promote the real estate cartel that is the foundation of life in Toronthole!
Winning!
#36 Ballingsford
I just ordered underwear from Amazon. Yes, I still wear underwear working from home and they do eventually wear out.
—————————————————————————
Personally, I shop for underwear in person. I prefer to try on several pairs before deciding what type or brand to buy.
Tighty whities, grape smugglers, boxers, athletic, or whatever.
Once I’m done, I cram the ones I didn’t like back into the opened package and stick’em back on the shelf.
If you don’t wanna take any chances of getting my try-ons, here’s a tip: stay away from any skivvies tagged XL.
#67 Nonplused, PhD
This was a clear and concise explanation of the risk associated with investing in crypto. Great comment.
I was picking up supplies for a reno the other day when I saw some friends and stopped to chat.
They saw the 2×4’s in the trailer and accused me of flaunting my wealth.
#82 Ok, Doomer on 05.20.21 at 10:02 pm
Very well said. Sadly, the majority of people don’t see it like that.
#92 Nonplused on 05.20.21 at 11:18 pm
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.21 at 8:18 pm
@#70 Nonplused
“…certainly we can find jobs for the folks that are already here that can show up for work….”
++++
Why would people bother with work when CERB or UBI beckon …. ?
—————————
A good question.
—————————-
Stupid question.
CERB is about to expire and UBI may no happen.
Also, Your assertion that all people are lazy is not based on reality.
Certainly not true in my world.
Dharma Bum on 05.21.21 at 8:58 am
#36 Ballingsford
I just ordered underwear from Amazon. Yes, I still wear underwear working from home and they do eventually wear out.
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Personally, I shop for underwear in person. I prefer to try on several pairs before deciding what type or brand to buy.
Tighty whities, grape smugglers, boxers, athletic, or whatever.
Once I’m done, I cram the ones I didn’t like back into the opened package and stick’em back on the shelf.
If you don’t wanna take any chances of getting my try-ons, here’s a tip: stay away from any skivvies tagged XL.
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No worry here.
I buy my underwear at Costco.
Only one brand, no try out booths.
#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.21.21 at 10:43 am
I buy my underwear at Costco.
Only one brand, no try out booths.
————
Thank you for supporting my investment!
I try to help people as well. The other day, there was a woman crying outside the grocery store because she had lost $200. To help out, I gave her $50 of the $200 I had just found. Blessings are meant to be shared!
#100 Sail Away on 05.21.21 at 10:14 am
In the Sail Away pantheon of jokes, this rates a 4 of 10. Don’t be disheartened, 5 is a decent, average knee slapper. Low rating for internet prevalence of material. Regardless, we all enjoy the efforts.
crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.21 at 9:51 pm
Hmmmm
One day after the Nanaimo blog topic.
A man shot dead in a Nanaimo Shopping Plaza parking lot.
Suspected Gang retaliation.
3 Brainiacs arrested.
Big city problems in little Nanaimo.
======================
Hey Crowdie,
Plenty of shootings in Nanaimo. Longhouse Caberet in 1979, a wife gunned down getting gas at Uplands road in 2002 and a guy shot just last July.
Mercy.
The recent bunch probably came from another health region but can legally cross over from Surrey if travelling for work. TIC
Cheers, R
#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.21 at 9:51 pm
Hmmmm
One day after the Nanaimo blog topic.
A man shot dead in a Nanaimo Shopping Plaza parking lot.
Suspected Gang retaliation.
3 Brainiacs arrested.
Big city problems in little Nanaimo.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7881942/one-dead-three-in-custody-after-shooting-in-nanaimo-police/
*********
Not too surprising as the RCMP drug unit was (not sure if still is) located in Nanaimo. The detachment is down the street from Harewood. I have cousins who live in Harewood like GAV and they patrol their strets.
This has to stop… broad daylight shootings. It uses to be most people just diasppeared and only their shoes washed ashore. I would still live in Nanaimo then Vancouver. They just need to allow the people to travel with gun racks in their trucks like they did prior to the 90s. Good deterrent.
#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.21.21 at 10:43 am
No worry here.
I buy my underwear at Costco.
Only one brand, no try out booths.
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From the guy mewling about “useless information”. Wowsa.
Second shot today, fully vaccinated. Even in Canada!
Although to be accurate, 1st was courtesy of Her Majesty months ago, so Canada can’t really claim my stat…
@#102 Ponzies Planet
“Certainly not true in my world.”
++++
Planet Pout, circling the star Pugnacious.
What solar system is that again?
Just a comment regarding electric vehicles: nobody’s displacing Tesla. Ford Lightning pickup? Ha. I scoff.
The ‘Tesla killer’ graveyard is filled with failures, but there’s always room for a few more.
#56 Dale Galderhaun on 05.20.21 at 6:56 pm
Credit counseling.
#105 Faron on 05.21.21 at 11:10 am
#100 Sail Away on 05.21.21 at 10:14 am
In the Sail Away pantheon of jokes, this rates a 4 of 10. Don’t be disheartened, 5 is a decent, average knee slapper. Low rating for internet prevalence of material. Regardless, we all enjoy the efforts.
———–
Assigning joke demerits due to past exposure is unfair judgment. The best jokes all have historical underpinnings.
Enjoy the boom. It will be short lived.
Have a strategy in place for a quick exit.
Stealth inflation and its deleterious effects have been suppressed since 2008, and when the straw dam gives way even the B&D portfolios will be damaged.
RE: #93 JR on 05.21.21 at 12:29 am
This is largely a sham investment. – Garth
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto now has a 2.5 Trillion Dollar market cap.. Sham.. errr, right.
Maybe you just don’t get it Garth.
Seems like a lot of other people do.
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“It’s a hustle.” –Elon Musk
Nonplused, maybe in the next 3.5 years they will be 10 to 12 years old cars. The post reads that they are 10 to 12 years old but the economics don’t add up.
My sister has a used car, Honda, that is 8 years old and the car payments for 3 years financing is $365 a month. This is fully paid off in 3 years not a lease. If they are 7 to 9 year old cars currently I can see 2 cars easily being $600+ a month in car payments.
Another shot across crypto’s bow from the CCP. Some massive sells hitting the tape. Reporting out of Iran on how mining bitcoin has heped them bypass sanctions. The patter is very interesting and gives the US motivation to squash crypto in order to squeeze Iran. If you hear the Fed or Yellen talk about the space, Iran probably underlies their messaging implicitly.
Last couple days equities have been following crypto closely. Makes zero fundamental sense, but all kinds of sentiment sense given the sentiment driven nature of equities lately. My hypothesis remains that any crashing of the $1.5 T crypto market will drive regime change in equities and RE.
latter not patter.