The spike

If you’ve bought anything lately, you know. We’re in a price storm.

Pandemic-fueled demand has crashed into Covid-caused supply chain messes and the result’s been inflation. Lumber is insane. Houses are unattainable now save for move-up buyers and the wealthy. There’s a chip crisis. Try buying a Peloton. Or a purebred GSD. A boat or RV.

The official inflation rate in Canada is 2.2%, which says a lot about officialdom. But even that represents a big surge  (last year we had mild deflation, thanks to the bug). In the US financial markets had a mini heart attack recently when inflation raced ahead to 4.2% from 2.6%. That came as the vaccines flowed, immunity spread and the economy began to reopen. Markets are now getting used to the fact a lot more is coming.

In a few days we get the new number here. RBC economists said Monday it will be 3.3% – which is (of course) a 50% hike over the previous month. Gas is up 60% in a year. Some building materials have doubled. The bank says more is coming, now that more than 48% of Canadians have been vaxxed and supplies are ramping up.

“A concern is how quickly household demand could bounce back once the economy begins to re-open. Some services have been largely unavailable over the past year, and the price at which those services re-open could have a significant near-term impact on inflation measures. In Canada, COVID containment measures were still widely in place in April, but prices in the US spiked sharply as the economy began to reopen. We expect underlying inflation pressures in Canada to firm further as the year progresses, underpinned by a rapid recovery in consumer demand.”

Okay, so what does this mean? Here in the real world we already know what’s going on with plywood, bungalows and exercise equipment. How does this coming tsunami of additional inflation impact society?

Well, incomes might rise, but WFH will help put a damper on that (work-from-home can easily become work-from-Manila). And big hunks of the economy (travel, hospitality, tourism, entertainment, commercial real estate) have been seriously distressed and stripped of cash flow. So no fat increases there for workers. Not for a while.

Nah, the big thing will be monetary policy. As reopening happens, demand ramps up, savings are spent and the economy runs hot, CBs will throttle back on stimulus – which means interest rate increases. As RBC says: “If slack has been fully absorbed and inflation is sustainably at the 2% target, then the BoC is likely to feel quite comfortable moving off the effective lower bound around the middle of next year.” Translation: mortgages swell.

This chart gives you an inkling of what’s ahead (the source is Ratesdotca). Mr. Bond Market is pricing in three rate hikes in the next 24 months, and five of them by 2024. So if you take out a five-year home loan in 2021, for example, you’d better have the income in 2025 to finance a big monthly increase, or the capital to pay the sucker down upon renewal.

Five rate hikes (or more) by next mortgage renewal?

Click to enlarge. Chart source: Bloomberg

And what happens if – after the pandemic – those rising rates, repopulation of cities, return-to-workplace protocols and parabolic prices bring a flatlining or declining housing market? Then that 2021 purchase, when FOMO raged and recency bias had infected society, would look like a rash move.

In any case, rates are going up. Deal with it. Prepare for it. Borrow now long and low. You can use a weekly-pay mortgage (the right kind, 13 equivalent monthly payments instead of 12) to reduce the principal, or invest in a growth portfolio to build capital for a pay-down at renewal. Or plan on selling and moving to Tillsonburg in five years when everybody but the resident hicks has left again.

Have you noticed how many mainstream and social media stories there have been lately about the pandemic ‘forever changing everything’ including the way people buy real estate, where and how they want to live? It’s bunk. The current practice of buying houses for massive amounts of money through FaceTime viewings, without financing conditions or home inspections is not sustainable. History is littered with the financial detritus of those who thought prices would always go up, booms last forever, or human nature would bend.

When the masks come down, the six-feet between us melt away, places of work restore, crowds gather and normality is within grasp society will focus again on what matters. It won’t be house porn.

About the picture: “My partner got me onto your blog just before the pandemic started. Haven’t missed a post,” writes Amanda. “Thank you for sharing your insights and experience. You’ve taught me a lot! Not sure if you’ve had one of these on the blog before. This is Aengus – a 200lbs, 3-year-old Irish Wolfhound. Majestic, until you get to know him! He’s a giant suck. All cuddles and snuggles. Practically a lap dog. BTW, that photo is at my family home in Ontario and about a month into the pandemic (back when it was going to end in a couple weeks) we bought a place in Lunenburg. Why? Buying in the GTA was impractical (even a year ago) and people on NS are generally nicer. We want to spend our summers there so the kids grow up knowing the rat race isn’t everything.”

118 comments ↓

#1 Classical Liberal Millennial on 05.17.21 at 1:08 pm

Living somewhat close to Tillsonburg, I’m always amused when you use that town as an example of our wild RE prices happening in Small Town Nowhere. It’s so true.
Thanks as always for more solid advice.

So, it’s your fault. – Garth

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 1:11 pm

Well, I’m happy to report that imported beer prices have not gone up.
Bought some German Beck and some Czeck Kozel.
500 ml for 1.99.
Goes down smooth and easy.

#3 Faron on 05.17.21 at 1:16 pm

#92 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 11:01 am

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 8:31 am

Wonder what would happen if [insert name] did not attack first?

Grinding embargo and border blockades forcing economic flatline that causes unemployment in the majority of young people. Gee, I wonder why they radicalize? Also, continual settlement in Palestinian territory that further removed resources and compresses the islamic population who’s country was yanked out from under them 70 years ago.

I dont support Hamas firing rockets, but I am strongly opposed to Israel’s slaughter of hundreds of civilian Palestinians in a shock and awe campaign that would be viewed as a war crime if committed by a non westerrn nation. All that the UN is asking for is a cease fire at this point. No one wants to let Hamas off the hook. Watch the Oliver clip and tell us where he’s wrong.

#4 Soviet Capitalist on 05.17.21 at 1:27 pm

Garth, I like your blog and your interpretation of markets is overall solid. That being said, you’ve been bearish about the housing market for more than 10 years now. There were also reasons to be bearish many years ago, yet none seemed to make a dent in the housing market. The government is standing ready to pump it up whenever it shows signs of slowing. What do you feel can stop the authorities to push prices higher in the next 5 years? My counter-argument is that commodities will be hot in the near future, so the leadership will get lucky again and have their coffers full. The spending bonanza can probably continue.

#5 Liquid on 05.17.21 at 1:34 pm

Rates will probably go up next year, but I’m not sure that it will cause home prices fall.

We’ve seen interest rate being hiked 5 times between 2017 and 2018. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark simply moved sideways. That’s likely due to our population growth.

Today the market may have priced in 5 rate hikes by 2024. But if the economy gets back to normal by then, we’ll probably see more business activity and population growth to offset the monetary tightening.

Isn’t there a chance we’ll just experience a repeat of 2017/2018 and home prices don’t correct?

#6 GFwantstobuyahouse on 05.17.21 at 1:35 pm

Hi Garth,

Can you help me reconcile “If you haven’t tried to buy a house lately, don’t bother. It’s a war.”

with “Borrow now long and low.”

This latest post seems to encourage taking advantage of the low rates now while they last, that means buying the house in the big smoke asap. Does that not go against the grain of the posts over the last few weeks?

Thanks from a struggling FOMO fighter.

If you have a mortgage, lock it up. If you’re buying a house, may God help you. – Garth

#7 Sean on 05.17.21 at 1:36 pm

> Mr. Bond Market is pricing in three rate hikes in the next 24 months

Hasn’t that been the expectation every year since 2009?

One policy innovation since 2009 is they’ve figured out they can create some inflation if they pay people to not work, or simply make work illegal (you’re welcome to join various UBI schemes). There’s some inflation because of that.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 1:36 pm

Yeah.
I kinda wonder what planet the Sages in Ottawa come from for their “Inflation adjustments”
EVERYTHING is in short supply or drastically increasing in price.

One wonders how Trudeau and Freecash will ‘splain the unfairness of rising costs to the easily offended over the next few years when bread handed out on the UBI
dole goes from $4.50 a loaf to $9.00.

When the mob cant afford food…..Torches and pitch forks…

#9 Dogman01 on 05.17.21 at 1:43 pm

DELETED

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 1:50 pm

@#3 Faron
“All that the UN is asking for is a cease fire at this point.”
+++

The UN has had an anti Israeli bias for years.
A toothless tiger tolerated but ignored by everyone.
More talking heads justifying their existence.

When Hamas runs out of rockets….
Thats when this latest, mindless, pointless, murderous skirmish that they brought upon themselves….will end.

And the local population will dig new tunnels and it will happen again and again and again.

One can only imagine what would happen if the situation were reversed and the Palestinians were the superior force and had the superior tech. .

#11 Wrk.dover on 05.17.21 at 2:04 pm

K recovery, as in OK pointing up for some, pointing down for cheque to chequers.

I drove Airline Limo in T.O. in 77. Rent the car for $60/day, $11 fee to the DT core on rate sheet.

In 78 it was $100/day, $13 to DT core on rate sheet, and gas was soaring.

Bottom line? Inflated everything except flat take home pay.

Welcome back.

#12 Dogman01 on 05.17.21 at 2:06 pm

#9 Dogman01 on 05.17.21 at 1:43 pm

DELETED
——————

Huh…I thought it was on-topic.
I understand our Govt wants to open the taps ASAP, and with Housing demand, high unemployment, no wage inflation and UBI.

and it is from Jacinda Ardern

#13 Wrk.dover on 05.17.21 at 2:06 pm

(part time gig)

#14 alexinvestor on 05.17.21 at 2:19 pm

The majority of the work that could have been done in Manila has gone there already. The amount of talented people who will work for (much) cheaper is not limitless. We’ve been told not stress out our Indian colleagues because they are getting better offers elsewhere.

Once supply constraints ease, maybe CPI will drop. So no inflation as they measure it, but inflation everywhere else. The BOC also looks at unemployment when they decide if rates should be raised.

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 2:25 pm

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 11:08 am
@#90 Ponzius Pestus
“They are very good at keeping pests like aphids under control.”

++++
Fascinating.
If there was only a wasp that could keep Ponzius Pestus under control.
————-
Not afraid of wasps. You leave them alone, they leave you alone.
As a kid, did not have soccer shoes, so I always played barefoot (like Pele, but that’s another story).
When I stepped on a bee, my foot would swell up to the knee.
Hornets are another story. One bite could kill you.

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 2:35 pm

As for the mid east thing.
In the long run, Israel is not gonna come out ahead.
The Palestinians are outbreeding them 3:1.
Watch the demonstrators: all teenaged boys.
The don’t look like a happy bunch to me.
Israel is surrounded by hostile Arabs.
Using their nuclear arsenal may be the only option.
And then we have WW3, as I predicted, but hope will never happen.

#17 Don on 05.17.21 at 2:37 pm

Right now everyone is a real estate guru. Social media and MSM are running wild with “real estate investing advice”. Some are pushing second mortgages, second mortgage funds (lol!), Seminars, How I bought 10 properties in Tronto with no money down! Lead generation for realtors, and my favorite “divorce listings” (lmao!), oh! this is the best ” you can invest in real estate with as little as $10! (Yea, ten)

With these kinds of “advisors”, who needs Garth!!!
Run Garth, run!

#18 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 2:42 pm

#3 Faron on 05.17.21 at 1:16 pm

Grinding embargo and border blockades forcing economic flatline that causes unemployment in the majority of young people. Gee, I wonder why they radicalize?
———-

Yes. If only there had been some way to avoid it all. You know, some type of reasonable agreement that would have avoided the embargoes and blockades in return for peaceful and respectful behaviour. If only…

…oh.

From Wikipedia:

‘Following the elections [2006, electing Hamas], Israel and the Quartet on the Middle East stated that their continued aid to and dialogue with the Palestinian Authority under a Hamas government was conditional on Hamas agreeing to three conditions: recognition of Israel, the disavowal of violent actions, and acceptance of previous agreements between Israel and the PA, including the Oslo Accords. Haniya refused to accept these conditions, and Israel and the Quartet stopped all dialogue with the PA and especially any member of the Hamas government, ceased providing aid to the PA and imposed sanctions against the PA under Hamas.’

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 2:48 pm

#99 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 12:44 pm
Was out for a walk late last night – something in the sky caught my peripheral vision. I looked up to see a long line of “stars” hauling A across the sky heading East. Only thing it could have been was a group of Starlink Satellites. looked like hundreds, all clustered tightly together, not like the Starlink satellite vids on YouTube. These were definitely in a cluster/bunch and not a long spaced out line, moving fast and low for something in orbit.
————-
The Amercan Goverment is compiling a report on UFO sightings.
You may get in touch with them and tell your tale.
Probably get a free jab.
I have to say though, that you’re lucky to have such a clear night sky.
No stars here in the city.

#20 Tudval on 05.17.21 at 2:59 pm

I don’t think they include Peloton in the price index. Not even lumber. Rents and monthly payments, yes, those have not gone up. Most things I buy these days (essentials, of course, what else?) did not go up in price. Took a trip at Costco this morning and filled a cart with bargains… let me tell you NICE Manchego cheese for $10 a pound, big box of organic blackberries for $5, one kilo of almond flour for $15, one liter of Tuscan olive oil for $17 and lots more… give me a break, if you have a paycheque of any kind you eat like a king for exactly the same as last year. And the year before. Then you go to the gardening section and buy some nice flowers to beautify your surroundings… What else do you need.. no Peloton (darn!) … take a walk outside, it’s nice.

#21 Marc on 05.17.21 at 3:00 pm

Thinking of moving to Van?

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/shelley-fralic-vancouver-once-heaven-now-merely-a-mess-choking-itself-to-death

#22 UCC on 05.17.21 at 3:01 pm

With the interest rates so low, is it the best time to borrow to invest in a non-registered account?

#23 Dolce Vita on 05.17.21 at 3:02 pm

Agree.

How long it will last, the inflation, is an UNKNOWN #1. Short term in duration I believe but what’s that?

1 year, 2 years?

Who knows?

But with certainty today Garth you give a duration with what we know today. There is tomorrow Garth and if one thing this Pandemic has taught us, tomorrow will be a brand new ballgame.

——-

Hopefully when the wealthy nations have herd immunity they will send a tsunami of vax to the middle and low income countries.

We cannot forgot our obligation to all of our fellow human beings and it is also in our own best interest to do so.

UNKNOWN #2:

A worse version of the mutations so far may emerge from one of those un- or low vax’d nations.

Covid-19 has shown it is able to change very fast, much faster than our Science thought possible.

Happens every 10-15 days.

—————————

What was thought impossible has been made possible with this Pandemic.

#24 Lepreshaun on 05.17.21 at 3:03 pm

I don’t think the government will let housing drop.

I watched across my street a Mercedes get towed away and the other high end car hidden in the garage to prevent repossession.

Houses when up and in about the time it takes to get a appraisal and bump in your HELOC the cars came back and out of the garage.

Housing is all Canada has, and for the record I rent.

#25 westcdn on 05.17.21 at 3:13 pm

Bets only have two outcomes. You win or lose and the house takes a cut. I do bet but not without homework.

There are people, things and ideas that are undervalued. Being right more times is key. I keep “fun” money going. Best to be boring over the long run, imo. I don’t get inside information or “free” money.

I will not run behind a Brinks truck hoping for a miracle but it does happen. I prefer to put money into stable businesses that pay – stock buybacks make me cringe and I will move to new fields. I find people with integrity are the best though hard to find. I will throw shysters in the deepest ocean I can find but maybe that is it all they know so I try not to act emotionally.

I see gold is doing well so that will light my portfolio. It presents me with a good time to take cash off the table. It strikes me smart money is doing the same thing in the overall market. I don’t want to be the bag holder. Same thing as wifey made me hold her purse. I found the nearest mall bench and placed the thing between my legs. She really got mad at me when one day I decided to organize it.

Ugly is what I see coming down the pipe. I think debt is a good thing to eliminate. IMO, wage growth before inflation is not going to happen for most.

Where to go? I advise getting real things. I remember a guy say buy booze – it doesn’t lose value and is tradable. Real Estate is overpriced, it is what Canadians do. I am not part of the herd. Selling is harder than buying except if you are government.

#26 real news on 05.17.21 at 3:17 pm

#Ponzius Pilatus

All of the Palestinian boys are fighting because they have no jobs, no school infrastructure, no clean water, border checkpoints, polluted air and no homes. The fertiliy rate in Gaza has dropped significantly and is closer to Israel’s. The mortality rate though is extremely high.

#27 Dolce Vita on 05.17.21 at 3:17 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus

Pretty sure what you drank was actually Ukrainian or South African Black Market beer relabelled.

Was in Germany and Czechia just before the Pandemic hit and I can tell you that’s not what I paid, it was more, even the draft.

330ml bottle of Beer World prices*:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-does-a-beer-cost-in-your-country/

*Why the tawdry English go to Spain on vacation, S. Africa’s too far away and Ukraine…well you know.

#28 Honest Realtor on 05.17.21 at 3:22 pm

To any RE doomsayers out there, ask yourself a question:

Do you think the upcoming boom of the reopening phase, followed by a probable surge in immigration for years ahead will push property prices down?

The 95% don’t think so. And history says they are probably right. People who buy property now will look back in 2030 with smiles on their faces.

#29 BillyBob on 05.17.21 at 3:24 pm

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 2:35 pm
As for the mid east thing.
In the long run, Israel is not gonna come out ahead.
The Palestinians are outbreeding them 3:1.
Watch the demonstrators: all teenaged boys.
The don’t look like a happy bunch to me.
Israel is surrounded by hostile Arabs.
Using their nuclear arsenal may be the only option.
And then we have WW3, as I predicted, but hope will never happen.

===========================

The Jews have encountered hostile neighbours throughout their existence anywhere on the planet. As a result the IDF is one of the most battle-trained armed forces in the world. Israel is the only nuclear-armed country in the ME and will do whatever it takes to ensure its enemies are unable to become the same. Google “Samson Option”.

Suffice to say, they aren’t going anywhere. Or, everyone is going with them.

There are no shortage of casualties on either side. Of course the numbers will be much higher on the side that uses humans as shields. How is that practice defensible? The images of Palestinian civilian casualties are appalling and heartbreaking. I don’t suppose those are being used as cynical propaganda in any way by Hamas? Particularly as the IDF warns with phone calls, leaflets, even non-lethal warning shells (“roof knocking”) that an area is about to be targeted? The placing of ordinance in suburban neighbourhoods to provoke attack is all very deliberate and calculated by Hamas. They didn’t stockpile thousands of rockets overnight.

Some of the Palestinian casualties have been from their own makeshift weapons falling on their own people! But anything that helps make Israel look bad is fine, even if their own innocent people die. What a worthy cause.

Ah well. Just as other certain movements claim that violence, arson and looting is justified for the dispossessed and disenfranchised, I guess I can’t be surprised that the same people would apply the same logic to Hamas’ rockets.

#30 Dolce Vita on 05.17.21 at 3:26 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus

…and as usual, I forgot to mention there may be something to the renowned German Beer gut (that species is easily observed on Italia’s beaches in Summer and why we try to roll them back into the water, usually nude*):

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/World-Beer-Index-2021-Per-Capita-Spend-on-Beer-FullWidth.html

——————

*So as to no longer frighten our Nonne.

#31 Geoff on 05.17.21 at 3:27 pm

Well the new lumber is flowers … Flower baskets @ $20-$25 last year are $50-$60 this! I guess the WFH” ers
are are now the garden from homers…. Lets hope they have enough zoom down time to remember to water…

#32 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 3:56 pm

…Mr. Bond Market is pricing in three rate hikes in the next 24 months, and five of them by 2024.

***********
They are very optimistic. My (dummies!) forecast is – minimum two this year and 4-5 next.

#33 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 4:03 pm

…Well, incomes might rise, but WFH will help put a damper on that (work-from-home can easily become work-from-Manila).

*******

Garth,
since mania WFH started I had some opinion. Interesting thing is why WFHs who moved 100 km and more out of they offices thinking that WFH will be forever and new business agenda. Usually most of them working for IT or finance industry and should be smart by definition.

#34 JacqueShellacque on 05.17.21 at 4:05 pm

I don’t follow this argument. Workers are paid the marginal product of their labor, location has nothing to do with it:

“Well, incomes might rise, but WFH will help put a damper on that (work-from-home can easily become work-from-Manila).”

#35 Paterfamilias on 05.17.21 at 4:13 pm

# 21. Grew up in Vancouver, in the 1950s and 1960s. Don’t live there, or visit now. Hard to disagree with anything in the column.

#36 Don on 05.17.21 at 4:13 pm

#28 Honest realtor, Sold mine for $386k over asking. Will buy in a year. 2021/June to 2022/June crucial market set up. I really want it to run hot. Then the question is, is it 25% or 40% lower?

#37 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 4:13 pm

#24 Lepreshaun
…I don’t think the government will let housing drop.
********
Agree. Government will let housing to crash. They working hard for that.

Bubbles have 300 years history and ALWAYS finished some way – terrible crash. By the way tulip bubble crashed in just couple days or one week – like this.
With modern technology – Internet, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube – it can happens in couple hours. Will be funny if overnight.

#38 WTF on 05.17.21 at 4:17 pm

Faron

Israel with a population of about 10 million has 2 million arabs (AKA Citizens) living within its borders. 20% of the population. Apparently Jews and Arabs can live peacefully.

Hamas is dedicated to exterminating the Jews acting as a proxy for Iran Syria et al . They hide behind civilians and use them as shields.

Israel shows tremendous restraint dealing with evil doers. Hamas is using its people in a cynical ploy to try and vilify Israel, disgusting.

—————————————————————

Now back to RE.

#23 “Honest” House Sales Person who predicts the future.

Troll

#39 kommykim on 05.17.21 at 4:31 pm

RE: #100 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 12:44 pm
Was out for a walk late last night – something in the sky caught my peripheral vision. I looked up to see a long line of “stars” hauling A across the sky heading East. Only thing it could have been was a group of Starlink Satellites. looked like hundreds, all clustered tightly together, not like the Starlink satellite vids on YouTube. These were definitely in a cluster/bunch and not a long spaced out line, moving fast and low for something in orbit.

=======================================

Each of those Starlink satellites are not in their final orbits yet. That group was launched on the same rocket so they will have similar orbits right after they are released. But each one has it’s own little engine that will slowly change it’s orbit. Then they will spread out and end up in a mesh pattern over the Earth to give max coverage. This can take several months, so seeing them in clusters right now shouldn’t be too unusual.

#40 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 4:35 pm

#21 Marc on 05.17.21 at 3:00 pm

Thinking of moving to Van?

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/shelley-fralic-vancouver-once-heaven-now-merely-a-mess-choking-itself-to-death

——–

It’s ok if you’re homeless or a junkie, or both, but I think the article mentions that:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/safe-supply-drug-plan-covid-1.5511973

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-patricia-hotel-bc-housing-1.5973832

#41 Faron on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm

#18 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 2:42 pm

#3 Faron on 05.17.21 at 1:16 pm

@BillyBob and @Ponz and @crowdedelevatorfartz

There’s a lack of respect and no lack of ill will on both sides. I’ll ask this: what did the sanctions/embargoes/blockades achieve? Is inflaming your enemy as punishment a good tactic? Did it make Hamas more likely to accept Israel’s statehood? Is the current stomping of Palestine by Israel doing anything other than strengthen BiBi’s hold on power?

@BillyBob “Just as other certain movements claim that violence, arson and looting”

That’s a disgusting and utterly inaccurate comparison albeit comlletely in character for you. Go look up which groups in that dispute are classified as domestic terrorists by the US DHS.

#42 The West on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm

To everyone chiming away in here about the crisis in the Middle East – please stop. Please stop protesting, please stop the keyboard yeoman-ship. This is not our fight and never will be. Canadian soil is peaceful (thank God), for now. And let this unfinished drama serve as a lesson. Supposedly – the old worlders came here to escape this, well – why won’t they escape?

Caught in the crossfires of endless Mesopotamian Empires until finally being horrifically sacked/enslaved by the Romans (and scattered throughout Europe);
The “Hebrews” (the unenlightened call them “jews”) suffered at the hands of the “mob” everytime something bad happened (plagues, depressions, weather events causing starvation) and then relentless persecution by the Christians until a boil over (that was centuries old by then) when a crazy man (who gained power over a starving, desperate) central european population blamed “the jews” for England’s destruction of their economy and played out a terrifying, regrettable and ghastly chapter in modern history.

But, England never wastes an opportunity and understanding that the Middle East had lots and lots of oil they planted a beachhead smack dab in the middle of hostile territory knowing full well what the consequences would be….it is still playing out. As a “side game” for the power hungry all around them.

It’s a damn shame this human suffering. Needless and uncalled for. Every side is right and every side is wrong. History is long and it is best to educate ourselves rather than engage in conflict.

Israel is a bully and a victim at the exact same time. There is no other way to see it. If you want to find fault – the Balfour Declaration is reponsible for of all of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balfour_Declaration

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement

Now the Israelis are smack dab in the middle of an existential crisis everytime they lift the pressure off of their neighbors. Buried in a hostile neighborhood. What else is there to expect? They want to live too – and NEITHER side is willing to grant concession. They can’t acquire land through business transaction so they conquer it. Of course there is backlash – of course people are dying, they can find no peaceful resolution.

We have nothing to gain in this, we only have to lose.

Get away from your television and the media spin on anger, hate and the destruction of civilization.

May God grant Canada peace. Conflict is always closer than we, here in the New World “Affluenza”, care to understand.

#43 I’m stupid on 05.17.21 at 4:39 pm

As everyone knows I do hvac. Material is so scarce that everyone in the industry is essentially marginally employed. I have 60 houses ready to go but I didn’t work 2 weeks ago then got sheet metal for 4 days now I’m sitting at home waiting for the next shipment.

Electricians are in the same boat. Most companies have enough wire until the end of the month then who knows.

Prices are insane… sheet metal elbows (if you can find them) cost 3 times the price and increasing 10-20% per week. Every week, every shipment is more and more expensive.

Certain special material like 7inch pipe is $15 per length… it is to be $3.

Manufacturers and suppliers will not sell to new customers no matter the size of the order. They’re just supplying the customer base they had before so you can’t just make a new relationship. The suppliers you have are the only ones you will get.

If things weren’t bad enough companies are try to hoard material if they find it so it’s causing huge imbalances. Some companies have 100k in pipe but no elbows so they can’t do any work. Other companies have 100k in elbows but not pipe so they can’t do any work so here we are. A bunch of chickens with no heads. It’s the construction industry equivalent of hoarding toilet paper.

#44 Inequity on 05.17.21 at 4:41 pm

As I recall, that whole being surrounded by hostile neighbors is how the Palestinians lost that land back in 67.

#45 Guelph Guru on 05.17.21 at 4:43 pm

The joys of inflation are here for us to enjoy.
In summary:
Anyone with savings for a rainy day now has less wealth.
Salaries will lag behind prices or we are now poorer.
Higher rates will slow down housing but it will continue to be unaffordable.

#46 mj on 05.17.21 at 4:53 pm

I like your idea of weekly payments to get in an extra month each year. What I’m doing is I’m allowed an extra 20 percent a month. I’ve been doing it for a year now, hopefully by the time I renew my payments won’t change If rates go up a little.

Would QE have to stop before raising rates, or would they raise rates and keep some QE

#47 Rainman on 05.17.21 at 4:53 pm

Unfortunately house porn was here far before the pandemic. I don’t think it’s ever going away.

#48 safe money? on 05.17.21 at 5:03 pm

The official inflation rate in Canada is 2.2%, which says a lot about officialdom.
__________________________________

you’re a few days early. statcan reports cpi numbers Wednesday.

expect something shocking… to anyone in government or the central bank. who are willfully (criminally) oblivious.

As stated, that is the previous period stat. The coming one is forecast to be over 3%. – Garth

#49 Another Deckchair on 05.17.21 at 5:24 pm

Hey @8 CEF;

“When the mob cant afford food…..Torches and pitch forks…”

Bread prices. Absolutely. A detonator for the Arab Spring 10 years ago.

For Egypt, I was watching their oil output drop, which caused a financial crisis, and subsidized bread fell off the menu. The rest is, as they say, history.

#50 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 5:25 pm

#42 The West on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm

To everyone chiming away in here about the crisis in the Middle East – please stop.

———

Do as I say, not as I do…

…as The West proceeds to write the longest comment by far about the crisis in the Middle East.

#51 Brian Ripley on 05.17.21 at 5:27 pm

My chart (April data) of the REAL PRICE OF TSX Real Estate & Gold Indexes, ie: Nominal Prices divided by Bank of Canada $CAD Commodity Index is up: http://www.chpc.biz/real-price-of-gold–re.html

​​​In April 2021, the CAD$ Commodities Index (CCI blue solid plot line) remained above the well defined downtrend channel and continued the rebound rally along with Crude Oil after the bounce off the April 2020 Covid 19 low.

​​​In April 2021, the CAD$ Commodities Index remained above the well defined downtrend channel and continued the rebound rally along with Crude Oil after the bounce off the April 2020 Covid 19 low.

2021 reversed last year’s trends… but the chart plots look like they might be topping.

#52 conan on 05.17.21 at 5:32 pm

Israel and the Palestine has been handled badly since day one. I do not see Israel stopping this time until Gaza is a parking lot.

Tiny incremental land grabs will be pushed aside for one big Gaza grab. At the same time, this might be the time for a lasting peace. If countries work together and pay the money to relocate the Palestinian people properly, with compensation.

Behaving badly is rewarding the Israelis, and that is a recipe for a much larger war.

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 5:33 pm

#44 Inequity on 05.17.21 at 4:41 pm
As I recall, that whole being surrounded by hostile neighbors is how the Palestinians lost that land back in 67.
————
Having the Americans on their side has always helped the Israelis.
This may not be  the case forever as Chinas political and military influence widens.
Sure, the Arab world is divided, Sunni and Shiites etc, but Iran is the dark horse that could turn the tide away from Israel.
And keep in mind, the State of Israel in its current form, is very young when compared to the long and complicated history of the Jews.
I don’t deny Israel’s right to exist, but let’s just say that if I were a young  Israeli I’d immigrate to America.
This is my last comment on the subject.

 

#54 Another Deckchair on 05.17.21 at 5:40 pm

@34 JacqueShellacque

“Workers are paid the marginal product of their labor, location has nothing to do with it”

When the Google Play store opened, I put an app on it. Made approx $4.00/day.

No matter where in the world you are, you make the same from Google Play.

One can live *anywhere* and write apps, places where $4.00 maybe buys a bare-bones coffee, or $4.00 buys you everything you and your family needs.

Location has *everything* to do with it, IMHO.

#55 Habitt on 05.17.21 at 5:40 pm

#10 Fartzy spot on thank you

#56 jimmy zhao on 05.17.21 at 5:49 pm

In the Lower Mainland, Snowshoes were sold out in the winter, now Stand-Up paddle boards are sold out in the summer.

#57 VGRO and chill on 05.17.21 at 5:51 pm

I can’t even bring myself to buy a pair of pants unless I can try them on at the store. So, I just can’t understand people who buy a house they haven’t even been inside. What if the place reeks like cat piss?

Also, gas +60% is pretty wild. $1.25 here in SK. The peak here was $1.48/L in 2008 though.

#58 BillyBob on 05.17.21 at 6:13 pm

#41 Faron on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm

@BillyBob “Just as other certain movements claim that violence, arson and looting”

That’s a disgusting and utterly inaccurate comparison albeit comlletely in character for you. Go look up which groups in that dispute are classified as domestic terrorists by the US DHS

===========================

Yet you had zero difficulty identifying who I was referring to with violence, arson, and looting. Your whataboutism is tedious.

I have no love for extremists on either side of any issue. I know that’s confusing for simpletons attempting to reduce everything to binary terms but there it is.

#59 Lucky Animal on 05.17.21 at 6:16 pm

Why? Buying in the GTA was impractical (even a year ago) and people on NS are generally nicer. We want to spend our summers there so the kids grow up knowing the rat race isn’t everything.

Except that Entitled Amanda just helped import a “rat race” to NS. Talk about crapping on the very thing you covet.

#60 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 6:35 pm

Reading comments like those posted by (#43 I’m stupid on 05.17.21 at 4:39 pm), I wonder why anyone would choose to buy a house right now. Even worse, get involved in a custom build. It’s got to have an affect on construction contracts signed before prices spiked. Sounds like a recipe for cutting corners on safety and quality of materials and whatnot. Just stay put till the dust settles, folks. Mercy.

As for this ‘dust up’ that’s occurring in the middle east, I guess (#42 The West on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm) pretty much nailed it. (along with Dharma Bum). It isn’t just that part of the world. Things are still a little testy in the Balkans and other hot spots. There’s respect and trying to live in peaceful co-existence, but there is also incompatibility.
Yes, Virginia, sometimes good fences do make good neighbours. And sometimes that lesson gets learned a little late.
Where is Fishbaby?

#61 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 6:49 pm

On a lighter note:

This was in the NP today. Someone ought to send to O’Toole and the Conservatives…..

Excerpt:
“Canada is no doubt different. There is no Brexit question. The Liberal party is a strong centre-left presence with enough savvy to occasionally apply a populist lens to its policies, particularly its spending commitments. But the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating worrying economic trends, the left is increasingly distracted by culture war virtue signalling and the status quo Conservative voting base simply is not big enough to elect a majority government. It might be easy to tune out international politics with so much going on at home, but if you are a Canadian Conservative who wants to win, you ought not to.”

Link:

https://pressreader.com/article/281681142769402

#62 S.Bby on 05.17.21 at 7:12 pm

RL lumber down for several days now:

$1,327.00 Change -63.00 (-4.53%)

#63 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 7:15 pm

Garth, I’m very sorry. I can’t be calm! I’m not interesting in political news – just a little bit.
BUT! This blog about finance and RE in Canada.

Folk, did somebody take time and read this about this blog from Garth Turner:

…Content on this site is presented as personal commentary on current economic, real estate and financial conditions and does not in any way constitute commercial solicitation or investment advice….

Did you see in these prerequisites something about political news/situation around the world?

Folk, do you understand this? Why you leave messages about something else which don’t comply with this blog. For political discussing existing so many others sources. Go there to impress your opinion. Guys relax! If you have nothing to let us know about finance, RE, investment or share yours experience/opinion about this – just read and be quiet.

If I hurt somebody – sorry! Today was last drop.

#64 DON on 05.17.21 at 7:25 pm

#17 Don on 05.17.21 at 2:37 pm
Right now everyone is a real estate guru. Social media and MSM are running wild with “real estate investing advice”. Some are pushing second mortgages, second mortgage funds (lol!), Seminars, How I bought 10 properties in Tronto with no money down! Lead generation for realtors, and my favorite “divorce listings” (lmao!), oh! this is the best ” you can invest in real estate with as little as $10! (Yea, ten)

With these kinds of “advisors”, who needs Garth!!!
Run Garth, run!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Appears to be a sure thing.

Whete do I sign up?

Is this a limited offer thing?

#65 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 7:36 pm

#39 kommykim on 05.17.21 at 4:31 pm

Each of those Starlink satellites are not in their final orbits yet. That group was launched on the same rocket so they will have similar orbits right after they are released. But each one has it’s own little engine that will slowly change it’s orbit. Then they will spread out and end up in a mesh pattern over the Earth to give max coverage. This can take several months, so seeing them in clusters right now shouldn’t be too unusual.
—— – –

Cool, that makes perfect sense. I wonder what the night sky is going to look like when all of them are up there – these things are very bright…

#66 DON on 05.17.21 at 7:48 pm

I spent some time backpacking to the pryamids via Israel in a much safer period in 1995. Only a couple bombs were going off back then…we stuck to the less travelled path as much as possible. I remember thinking how first world Tel Aviv was in look and feel.

Both sides live under constant fear of attack. The problem is not with the people, just with the leadership on both sides.

My friend had a good solution as she watched a child crying in the street. Go in, take everyone out who wants to leave and come back and deal with the rest on both sides, not some proxy war. Once done bring back the people. No more civilian shields. Enough is enough.

#67 Faron on 05.17.21 at 7:49 pm

#58 BillyBob on 05.17.21 at 6:13 pm
#41 Faron on 05.17.21 at 4:38 pm

===========================

Yet you had zero difficulty identifying who I was referring to with violence, arson, and looting. Your whataboutism is tedious.

Oh ya got me BillyBob oh you guy. That linking surely had nothing to do with my application of my BillyBob HeuristicBiscuit™ in which 93.56% of his posts will say something negative about groups he considers leftist or just frowns upon and target that language at me while forgetting that two of those things don’t apply to the groups he thinks they do and at least one of those things is much more predominant among the guys Ngo uses as protection.

A big part of the biscuit is being repeatedly struck with how deluded and self-important BillyBob is. “I’m better than that photographer because the eyes aren’t tack sharp, I listen to the bestest music here’s a [drearily lame] sample to rawk to, you can’t be a pilot because I don’t understand your acronyms, yer beer is crap because it’s not old world and has a funny name, yer town is dumb because it is composed of 3000% left wing hippies. Nothing is good ever unless I do it or say it or otherwise condone it and if anyone speaks up against that, they are dumb and deserve to be bullied [AKA clowned at]”.

You had some good arguments and I agree with some of your take on the current conflict, but you juuust couldn’t help putting a little jab in, could you.

Tune in next time when we compare the events of Jan 6th with the attributes BB ascribes to the left.

#68 Daveyboy on 05.17.21 at 7:58 pm

I Bought a Subaru Forester in September 2020,in Naples Florida. Put 7400 miles on it, and just sold it for more then what I paid for it! Crazy!

#69 Capt. Serious on 05.17.21 at 8:03 pm

I have colleagues in the USA in New Jersey and things are getting back to normal there. Coming soon to a town near you.

#70 Nonplused on 05.17.21 at 8:05 pm

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 2:25 pm
#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 11:08 am
@#90 Ponzius Pestus
“They are very good at keeping pests like aphids under control.”

———————————–

They are also very good at stealing scrambled eggs if you try and have breakfast outside.

I don’t mind if there are wasps in the forest going about their wasp-like days eating aphids, but if they settle in close to my house and invite themselves over for dinner they get nuked. Same with hornets. Bumble bees I leave alone. Bumble bees don’t like scrambled eggs.

My queen trapping efforts this time of year are done close to the house, again, just to reduce the number of nests I have to nuke later on.

I accidentally planted a tent pole in a ground hornet’s nest once. Yawsers, that was not fun. No wonder some people don’t like camping. I got stung like 5 times before I even figured out what was happening. Good thing it turns out I am not allergic.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 8:22 pm

#70 nonplused
Re: Wasps
They only go for meat and sugary food.
So if your a vegetarian and don’t have a sweet tooth, they should not bother you.
Also, we always put some raw meat pieces about 10 feet from the table.
That keeps them occupied.

#72 Dominoes Lining Up on 05.17.21 at 8:58 pm

Speaking of inflation, anybody been inclined to go off line and buy an actual newspaper, a remnant of that fading industry?

I was at a corner shop on the weekend. The price now for the Saturday Globe & Mail?

$7.00

(M-F it’s $4)

!

#73 Rent the Podium on 05.17.21 at 8:58 pm

Apparently Statscan has tweaked CPI calc this year. It now includes resale of houses (as opposed to just new builds) and mortgage interest. According to article it may not have effect for a while due to averaging, but step in right direction.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 9:09 pm

@#61 the jag
“. But the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating worrying economic trends, the left is increasingly distracted by culture war virtue signalling and the status quo Conservative voting base simply is not big enough to elect a majority government. ”

++++

Yep.

The O’Toole Conservatives may be tone deaf “tools” but I’ll still rather vote for out of touch dinosaurs than the Conflict of Interest dodging, WOKE apologists, currently bankrupting this country….

#75 the jaguar on 05.17.21 at 9:21 pm

@VladTor:

You want economic advice and discussion?
Here is some for you, and you can ‘take it to the bank’:
FILL UP YOUR GAS TANK. NOW. All passengers return to your seats and fasten your seatbelts. Prepare for turbulence.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 9:25 pm

Cullen Commission into casino money laundering allegations.
THATS A WRAP!
It’s over.

Former Preem Christy Clark never considered it her job to investigate allegations of large cash deposits funding BC govt budget targets.
Rich Coleman the “on again off again Minister of Gaming, etc for 8 years……was waiting for “other agencies” to prove that money laundering was a problem….even after he shut down an RCMP squad that was specifically alleging money laundering was a serious issue…..”

The long and short of it.

What the politicians didn’t know……wasn’t their problem.
Good to know they have the publics best interests at heart.

#77 Cici on 05.17.21 at 9:33 pm

#20 Tudval

Where do you live? In my area the cost of most meat has doubled yet the quality seemes to have taken a big dive.

Anyways, don’t feel too lucky yet. This is probably just the beginning… even the price of corn is set to skyrocket. Unless this is just media fearmongering again to push up sales and consumption. You just never know… it worked for housing!

#78 Nonplused on 05.17.21 at 9:33 pm

#63 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 7:15 pm
Garth, I’m very sorry. I can’t be calm! I’m not interesting in political news – just a little bit.
BUT! This blog about finance and RE in Canada.

Folk, did somebody take time and read this about this blog from Garth Turner:

…Content on this site is presented as personal commentary on current economic, real estate and financial conditions and does not in any way constitute commercial solicitation or investment advice….

Did you see in these prerequisites something about political news/situation around the world?

————————-

Vlad, what happens in the Middle East could have ramifications for what happens in Canada and indeed the world economically. That said I do tire a little of the Israel vs. Palestine blame game. It is what it is. But if things get out of hand there it could affect oil prices. Then, whew, think we’ve got inflation so far? It could be the 70’s all over again.

#79 meslippery on 05.17.21 at 9:42 pm

Well, incomes might rise, but WFH will help put a damper on that (work-from-home can easily become work-from-Manila).
—————-
Talk like that will bring back Trump and re-elect T-2.
Trump wants to re-shore, and T-2 will let (Push) all
business out of Canada and give everyone a basic income
if you vote for him.

#80 Russ on 05.17.21 at 9:43 pm

Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 8:22 pm

#70 nonplused
Re: Wasps
They only go for meat and sugary food.
So if your a vegetarian and don’t have a sweet tooth, they should not bother you.
Also, we always put some raw meat pieces about 10 feet from the table.
That keeps them occupied.
===========================

Pro Tip:

Place the raw meat to leeward or abeam of your social area.

Otherwise you will have wasps sailing through your zone and checking out the picnic anyhow.

How many vegetarians do you know who don’t have a sweet tooth? Let’s be realistic when discussing expected yields. :)

Cheers, R

#81 cramar on 05.17.21 at 9:44 pm

U.S. situation, but likely applicable to Canada.

64% of millennials have regrets about buying their current home—here’s why

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/64percent-of-millennials-have-regrets-about-buying-their-current-home.html

Highlights:

“Nearly two-thirds, or 64%, of millennials (ages 25 to 40) say they have at least one regret about purchasing their current home, according to a new poll of more than 1,400 U.S. homeowners from Bankrate.”

“Among all homeowners, including millennials, the most common regret is underestimating how much the maintenance expenses and other hidden costs associated with buying and owning a home are. About 16% of homeowners (and 21% of millennials) cited this as a regret. Other types of regrets focused on the size of the home and the finances involved in the process, including the mortgage payment and rate.”

“Last year, homeowners spent an average of $13,138 on household projects, according to HomeAdvisor’s new 2020 State of Home Spending report. While those costs can vary depending on where you live and the age and condition of your home, homeowners should plan to spend 1% to 3% of the home’s purchase price on annual maintenance.

That means if your home is priced at $300,000, it’s worth setting aside at least $3,000 each year for repairs and upkeep.”

#82 TurnerNation on 05.17.21 at 9:54 pm

Remember this Dawgs.
When you are a truly free man those people living in their self-made cages cannot touch you. Sure as you walk past their gate they will hurl stuff at you, land a hit or two. Shake it off, clean up and keep moving. You are a free man.

#83 DON on 05.17.21 at 10:12 pm

#63 VladTor on 05.17.21 at 7:15 pm
Garth, I’m very sorry. I can’t be calm! I’m not interesting in political news – just a little bit.
BUT! This blog about finance and RE in Canada.

************
I get where you are coming from on noise.

With respect to the economy and politcs ever heard of the political economy?

#84 TurnerNation on 05.17.21 at 10:34 pm

If you cannot see the purpose here, Economic Shutdown of Ontario…while the world is wide open.

Richard Southern @richard680news
NEW – The NDP motion to re-open outdoor amenities like golf and tennis has been defeated in the legislature.
Yes – 21
No – 63

///

From 6-7 months ago and what has changed.

“#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.
28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.”

#85 Scooby treat on 05.17.21 at 10:44 pm

How bad is it when 124 Generals, including 4 star ones. Believe the current administration is screwing up and is unfit to govern? Things that make you go humm.

#86 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 10:48 pm

BB: ‘Unhinged’. I think he got into someone’s liquor cabinet or some modern day ‘pot’ equivalent.

We need an ‘intervention’ of some sort.
Surprisingly I am being to feel some empathy. There is real intellect there, but so misguided….

Someone put in a call to Foghorn Leghorn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d277T73eHTQ

#87 Morrey on 05.17.21 at 11:32 pm

lots of contrary opinions on house prices:
“Goldman Spots Huge Worry On The Horizon…warns “a US housing shortage will fuel substantial home price appreciation for at least a couple more years.””

seems like Canada is on the same path

#88 Bob Dog on 05.17.21 at 11:34 pm

When inequality inevitably leads to a violent uprising, I really hope the violence begins and ends with the traitorous vermin running the bank of Canada and not the immigrants or the wealthy foreign and domestic investor class that the bank of Canada has created through its obscene monitory policies.

#89 Drake Caffery on 05.18.21 at 12:10 am

Well by 2024, there will be 5.25% to 5.5% fixed rate mortgages and 4.75% to 4.95% variable rate mortgages. Ouch, you are going to all lose your house.

By the way, property taxes, gas, electricity, water, utility bills etc. will all be at least 25% to 35% higher in Toronto/GTA, Vancouver, Victoria etc. George Carlin was right all along.

#90 Nic on 05.18.21 at 12:52 am

Nope. Too much global debt. No rate hikes. Inflation runs hot and rates pinned to the floor while we inflate the debt away. How else can we pay this massive pile back.

#91 Diharv on 05.18.21 at 1:41 am

Canada has been addicted to and focused on house porn for the last decade. Granted, the idiocy ramped up quite a bit last year, but it has been stupid for years.

#92 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 5:42 am

#67 Faron on 05.17.21 at 7:49 pm

_____________________________

Faron, why don’t you just say this?

Pilots look like such rock stars, strutting the through the airport with their attache case full of peanut butter sandwiches and coloring books.

They are just monkeys trained to sit in the front seat.

Flight engineers make the flight succeed.

#93 Dharma Bum on 05.18.21 at 8:43 am

DELETED

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.21 at 8:44 am

@#85 Scooby
“How bad is it when 124 Generals, including 4 star ones. Believe the current administration is screwing up and is unfit to govern?”

+++

Canada has 124 Generals?
Not after the pc purge that would make Stalin proud….

#95 KLNR on 05.18.21 at 9:25 am

Love those wolfhounds, just wish their lifespan was a bit longer. wonder how many Ontarians have contributed to the big home price increases in NS?

#96 leebow on 05.18.21 at 9:36 am

DELETED

#97 David Greene on 05.18.21 at 9:39 am

You’re implying Palestinians are apes? Wow, class move, Dharma Bum. I wonder why Garth doesn’t cull posts like this.

————————————————————-

#93 Dharma Bum on 05.18.21 at 8:43 am

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz

One can only imagine what would happen if the situation were reversed and the Palestinians were the superior force and had the superior tech.
————————————————————————-

No need to wonder.

There’s a movie about it:

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063442/

#98 Faron on 05.18.21 at 9:56 am

#86 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 10:48 pm

I despise weed and drink 3 beer a week +-

Someone like BillyBob who can’t distinguish between an unruly mob and a terrorist organization who fires rockets at civilians (Hamas) doesn’t understand extremism and is beneath me and beneath you and beneath almost all of the coherent commenters here not to mention Garth who somehow tolerates our nonsense.

Good day

#99 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 10:07 am

#92 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 5:42 am

Pilots look like such rock stars, strutting the through the airport…
____

Ever watched the movie “Catch me if you can”?

Pilots ARE rock stars!

#100 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 10:14 am

#95 KLNR on 05.18.21 at 9:25 am

wonder how many Ontarians have contributed to the big home price increases in NS?

____________________________________

All of them?

Pre-covid, most housing had always sold below replacement cost, throughout the province.

There was a big expensive commission a few years ago that concluded NS would shrivel away with out immigration. Now we have a bunch of Ontarian boomers with health issues and cheque to cheque lifestyles. Seems they only had ‘some’ equity in Ontario, and were still in debt before they cashed out. So not so honking wealthy after all.

Not going to work out for them here in the long run. Once they piss off some merchants or trades people, they will find out you can’t live incognito in a small town setting.

#101 Quintilian on 05.18.21 at 10:23 am

Liquid:
“Isn’t there a chance we’ll just experience a repeat of 2017/2018 and home prices don’t correct?”

No, because although there may be not limits to foolishness , there are limits to how much stupid people can borrow.

#102 Tom from Mississauga on 05.18.21 at 10:27 am

Forcing wage and inflation is Covid in our feeder countries for immigration (India, Turkey etc.). This will restrict workers supplying goods and services.

#103 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 11:12 am

As the recent Federal budget clearly displayed, the Liberals aren’t in the affordable housing business. Quite the opposite.

But what else can be expected when you elect a PM with the encephalization quotient of a hippopotamus? Trudeau and the Federal Liberals are out to make sure homeowners and investors keep getting richer. The minority poor and young first time buyers evidently don’t count for too much in Ottawa.

Most Boomers and Gen-X’ers don’t give a rip about Trudeau’s apologies, SJW boondoggles, and tickle-trunk escapades. They love houses and money, therefore Trudeau will get voted in again – probably with a majority. After all, the Liberals are literally paying this demographic cold hard cash money to suffer the embarrassment of their leadership. Trudeau is turning everyone in the 45+ crowd into millionaires.

Younger Mils who are now permanently euchred out of a home in Canada are going to have to wait till enough Gen-Z’s hit voting age, and then home buying age; to back up their political clout – so maybe in 10-15 years or so.

In the meantime, Trudeau and his Liberals will reign long into the future – and will continue stacking cash and equity on to the net worth of Boomers and Gen-X in shocking amounts, and of the tax-free variety. We’re talking 12 month annual net worth gains that outstrip dual employment net incomes. The peons will continue to receive CERB, and goofy joint home-ownership schemes from Trudeau.

Sorry kids – you know where to point the finger.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 11:52 am

#92 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 5:42 am
#67 Faron on 05.17.21 at 7:49 pm

_____________________________

Faron, why don’t you just say this?

Pilots look like such rock stars, strutting the through the airport with their attache case full of peanut butter sandwiches and coloring books.

They are just monkeys trained to sit in the front seat.

Flight engineers make the flight succeed.
—————————
The engineer who made the moon walk happen just died recently.
He stayed behind in the mother ship.
He lived a life in obscurity, while the guys who walked on the moon were heroes.

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 12:05 pm

#103 Ihtc9

Younger Mils who are now permanently euchred out of a home in Canada are going to have to wait till enough Gen-Z’s hit voting age, and then home buying age; to back up their political clout – so maybe in 10-15 years or so.
——————————-
I did not own a house until I as 35.
Never thought that was an issue.

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 12:09 pm

#99 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 10:07 am
#92 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 5:42 am

Pilots look like such rock stars, strutting the through the airport…
____

Ever watched the movie “Catch me if you can”?

Pilots ARE rock stars!
———————-
Ever watched “Airplane”?

#107 Faron on 05.18.21 at 12:16 pm

@IHTCD9

Sounds like what you saw.

https://www.vicnews.com/trending-now/more-strings-of-lights-reported-in-coastal-b-c-s-night-skies/amp/

#108 TheDood on 05.18.21 at 12:47 pm

#21 Marc on 05.17.21 at 3:00 pm
Thinking of moving to Van?

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/shelley-fralic-vancouver-once-heaven-now-merely-a-mess-choking-itself-to-death

_________________________________________

The only reason to move here is the weather allows for an extended motorcycle season. That’s it, that’s all!

There is no other reason to move here. No growth, no industry (the activists won’t allow it), just real estate sold between the locals. There are ZERO jobs out here that support the cost of living. If you don’t live here already AND own your own home, there is no point moving here, you will be broke and in debt forever.

#109 Sam on 05.18.21 at 12:50 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/the-second-largest-country-in-the-world-is-running-out-of-land?srnd=premium-canada

#110 Sail Away on 05.18.21 at 12:56 pm

#107 Faron on 05.18.21 at 12:16 pm
@IHTCD9

Sounds like what you saw.

https://www.vicnews.com/trending-now/more-strings-of-lights-reported-in-coastal-b-c-s-night-skies/amp/

——–

1,600 satellites so far and 12,000 for full earth coverage. Elon elevating human connection.

What a guy. Almost… heroic.

And, as an extra bonus, his companies can make a savvy investor filthy rich.

#111 TheDood on 05.18.21 at 12:57 pm

#28 Honest Realtor on 05.17.21 at 3:22 pm
To any RE doomsayers out there, ask yourself a question:

Do you think the upcoming boom of the reopening phase, followed by a probable surge in immigration for years ahead will push property prices down?

The 95% don’t think so. And history says they are probably right. People who buy property now will look back in 2030 with smiles on their faces.
___________________________________________

I don’t know what area of the country you live in, but do you think people who work for a 70-80k per year salary should be buying homes for 1 million plus?

You do realize these people will be broke (DEAD, FLAT BROKE) for the rest of their lives while they pay the mortgage off right? Just for the privilege of calling themselves home owners. What a path to riches!!

#112 Robert on 05.18.21 at 1:08 pm

This game of musical “houses” will not be allowed to stop; too much of our domestic economy now rides the one trick pony. Once Harper and Flaherty inflated the gas bag and bought their majority, the writing has been on the wall. If young Canadians feel priced out or “coaxed” into indentured servitude to the banks so be it. If we don’t like it, there’s plenty of pent up demand inside and outside our borders. What a world :)

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:12 pm

#107 Faron on 05.18.21 at 12:16 pm
@IHTCD9

Sounds like what you saw.

https://www.vicnews.com/trending-now/more-strings-of-lights-reported-in-coastal-b-c-s-night-skies/amp/
___

Yep – lots of vids on YouTube of the SL satellites, it’s just what the article describes. Very bright, impossible to miss. Distracting even.

#114 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 1:40 pm

#86 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 10:48 pm
BB: ‘Unhinged’. I think he got into someone’s liquor cabinet or some modern day ‘pot’ equivalent.

We need an ‘intervention’ of some sort.
Surprisingly I am being to feel some empathy. There is real intellect there, but so misguided….

==========================

hahah I know, when I have time to read his posts I vacillate between amusement and a sort of horrified fascination. He must put some sort of waterproof cover on his keyboard to protect it from the flying spittle. And now some old goblin from Nova Scotia as his biggest cheerleader. You couldn’t make this stuff up lol! Geez people, relax and have a laugh – life is short!

Chilly 11C in beautiful Victoria today (25+ Faronheit). Will have to put on some extra layers for the trail ride today. But I’m still holding out hope we can get a Coors Lite, that delicious brew, together later when he finishes his “work”.

How about it, Ferret? I’ll buy. Monkeys/rockstars/bus drivers can afford it.

#115 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:41 pm

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 12:09 pm
#99 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 10:07 am
#92 Wrk.dover on 05.18.21 at 5:42 am

Pilots look like such rock stars, strutting the through the airport…
____

Ever watched the movie “Catch me if you can”?

Pilots ARE rock stars!
———————-
Ever watched “Airplane”?
____

Shirley I have!

#116 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 2:22 pm

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 12:05 pm

I did not own a house until I as 35.
Never thought that was an issue.
__

Waiting till 35 won’t save you anymore in post-Trudeau Canada. Houses have sailed past the “stupid” line.

I bought at 28, no problemo at 1.37X income. Buying my place today at the same 1.37X would require a 365K HHI. My place is a totally normal house, nothing fancy at all. It wasn’t considered expensive when I bought it, and it’s not considered expensive today. Frankly, most folks today would probably want something newer and nicer than our place.

Something’s off the rails when it takes two Tier 1 FAANG Software Engineer entry salaries to buy an old farmhouse out in the sticks with the same financial ease that we experienced 20 years ago.

#117 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 2:35 pm

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 11:52 am

Flight engineers make the flight succeed.
—————————
The engineer who made the moon walk happen just died recently.
He stayed behind in the mother ship.
He lived a life in obscurity, while the guys who walked on the moon were heroes.

==============================

Yep. There’s a lesson in that. Absolutely true that there’s a whole team to make any flight possible. But the quarterback usually gets most of the accolades. (And the money and women.) No one ever said life was fair.

I’m assuming WarmedOver meant either aeronautical engineers or maintenance engineers, given that aircraft with a flight engineer position haven’t been in common airline use for oh, 30-40 years. An easy mistake if you’ve never been on an airplane, I suppose.

#118 Satori Black on 05.18.21 at 4:31 pm

I rent.
In all the years I have rented, my entire life… there has never been a tax deductible, rebate, write off, nada, nothing.

It seems to me the government wants people to own and encourages it with these first time buyer, primary resident, tax rebate, home owner upgrade rebate, tons of it… and us renters, get ZIP.

Be nice to see some rebates for renters for a change, some people don’t have the luxury of a mortgage.

To top it off, I was told to cut down on my overtime, and I mentioned I would advise my co-worker as well of the reduced overtime… and the boss goes ‘yeah not her, she has a mortgage, she needs the money’. What in the world is next?