The yield

Where, oh where, to invest?

As my fancy colleague Doug mentioned yesterday, when crazy genius rocket-Tesla dude Elon Musk called crypto Dogecoin a “a hustle’ on SNL last week, the coin plunged in value. Then Musk ratted on Bitcoin just months after inflating it. Tesla won’t be taking that fake-money as payment anymore he said, blaming the climate crisis. (To make one Bitcoin sucks off as much energy as Brockville burns in a week. Or is it a year?)

These are days when investing risk is large. Crypto, for example, is backed by nothing. “There’s no inherent value in it,” Jack Brennan said on the weekend. The guy’s no slouch, having run Vanguard’s $7 trillion in funds.

Real estate’s a landmine, too. The pandemic’s taken prices parabolic, wildly inflated household debt, critically damaged small town social and financial equilibrium while infecting a whole generation with debilitating FOMO. Soon the pandemic will end. Big changes ahead.

Meanwhile $20 trillion in government Covid stimulus money around the globe has swollen financial markets. Stocks in New York, for example, have hit two dozen record highs in 2021 – and it’s only May. Commodity prices, inflation and corporate profits have erupted, while CBs keep rates artificially low and snorfle up bonds.

Some people call it the ‘everything bubble’ which has merit. Nonetheless, this is the world in which we live. We all need money, incomes, savings, investments and a plan forward. Cash is a poor option with prices romping. Most people don’t have enough liquid assets to happily enjoy the rest of their lives. Not investing is not an option.

In my day job, when not posting dog pictures to a pathetic blog, it’s what I do. Here are the two goals I assume people have: (a) don’t lose money, and (b) give me a reasonable rate of return. Anyone sharing those goals should not buy crypto, mortgage their butt off buying a house at historic high level, or throw their money into four or five stocks. Instead, be balanced. Be diversified. Use the tax shelters you’ve been given. Stop paying ridiculous mutual fund fees. And don’t assume the last 14 months will change the entire future. They won’t. It’s fiction.

This brings us to the famous GreaterFool B&D Portfolio. No, we did not invent 60/40 investing, but in a stupid, virus-addled, overly-emotional world where governments make stuff up weekly and everybody’s now a vaccinologist, it’s needed more than ever. The idea is simple: invest not like a cowboy but instead for predictable, boring long-term returns. To do that you need safe assets as well as growth ones (balance) and a broad range of assets and locations (diversification). Not everything advances at the same time. Like one of those old pre-Elon eight-banger engines, some cylinders rise while others fall, and you keep moving ahead.

Where are we today? Simple. Rates are low and will rise. Economies are reopening. Governments are steeped in debt and will raise taxes. Houses and puppies are inflated and will moderate. Income disparity is soaring. Lefty politicians are challenging the right. Inflation and speculation are ramping up. Volatility lies ahead.

If there was ever a time for B&D, this be it. Here’s a summary of a portfolio strategy for the post-Covid world.

First, the safe stuff. This 40% of the portfolio is made up of cash (1%), bonds (26%) and preferreds (13%). Because rates will be rising and bonds lose value when that happens, hold bond ETFs containing short-duration debt or floating-rate assets, as well as a bit of government exposure. Remember bonds are not primarily held for income (they pay diddly) but for insurance, to protect you during times of flux – and there’s probably a lot ahead. When Covid hit, investors with balance were happy campers.

Preferreds, on the other hand, rise in capital value (if they’re the rate-reset variety) as the cost of money starts jacking up. Already happening. Plus they pay you to own them with a dividend in the 4-5% range, along with the dividend tax credit. So the 40% fixed-income portion of the portfolio overall yields about 3.25% – liquid, not locked up and therefore vastly superior to a GIC. Plus it protects you.

The growth side of the plan (60%) is equity-based, which means exposure to stock markets, plus commercial real estate. Use ETFs, of course, instead of trying to pick a few stocks – this greatly reduces the potential risk, especially if you listened to what your BIL told you to buy. Also don’t just load up on Canadian stuff, since home country bias is a fault. Having said that, Canada will likely benefit from the end of Covid, the reopening global economy and rising commodity prices. These days 20% (of the 60%) might be in maple – including a 5% weighting in REITs – with 22% in US and 18% in international equities. In larger portfolios, some of that will be in small-cap companies as well as the big stuff, along with a biotech exposure. Also remember it makes sense for Canadians to have 20-25% of a portfolio invested in US-denominated assets. Always.

How many positions to hold? Maybe 20. Fewer for smaller portfolios. And be conscious of putting assets in the right places (RRSPs, tax-free and non-reg accounts) for maximum tax efficiency.

Don’t trade every day. Or month. Rebalance once or twice a year when weightings get out of line. Don’t be seduced by headlines or social media nonsense. Ignore corrections. And don’t be consumed with fast growth. It’s not a race. Life is long, so setting up a proper portfolio then letting it run for decades is key. Risks include your own impatience, or fear of starting. If you need help, reach out for it. There’s more to life than money. But life without it is less.

About the picture: “Long time fan of the blog,” writes Derek. “This is Riley the Chocolate Lab. He lives in the Lower Mainland with friends who take him for daily walks. He’s an inflation predictor. If you toss a small stick in the woods….he comes out with a bigger stick!”

106 comments ↓

#1 Pump and Dump on 05.16.21 at 11:14 am

No pump and dump scheme suggested?

No get rich quick?

No crypto?

No real estate 60% growth prediction for 2021?

This blog doesn’t speak to youth anymore. #outoftouch

#2 CEW9 on 05.16.21 at 11:30 am

At what level would you consider a portfolio large enough to hold US small caps and biotechs?

Maybe 250, but portfolio complexity depends on the individual’s circumstances. – Garth

#3 ogdoad on 05.16.21 at 11:33 am

Heard that! Slow and steady wins the race.

In my opinion when you learn to enjoy the trip then the goal becomes immaterial ;)

Enjoy your Sunday!

Og

#4 Ballingsford on 05.16.21 at 11:53 am

Great post Garth. You’re early today, you must want to take the afternoon off to enjoy this beautiful day! Dont forget the sunscreen!

Dog pic is good, looks just like my chocolate lab, and as strong. They do love big sticks!

#5 turnipnation on 05.16.21 at 11:56 am

“GreaterFool B&D Portfolio”

—————————————

B&D as in Bitcoin and Doge right?

In real news today

Vaccines work against the Indian variant

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57134181

#6 ladyvega on 05.16.21 at 11:58 am

“some cylinders rise while others fall”

That’s what my ex-husband used to say…

#7 Joey Kin on 05.16.21 at 11:59 am

Good advice, but is it worth holding any dividend producing assets outside Canada? Otherwise one doesn’t get the dividend tax credit?

#8 Another Deckchair on 05.16.21 at 12:05 pm

This advice is gold.

As is the one of sharing with your partner from a few days ago.

When both of us were about 40, we found ourselves “kicked out” of “forever” relationships; one found out that all assets had also been taken. Starting anew, 100% sharing of $$ and 100% trust given.

Fast forward 20ish years; two good top 5% salaries, living comfortably well within our means, saving, investing, paying off debt, having fun, following the advice of Garth and others, we can retire.

Actually, we should have stopped working a good few years ago; we have more $$ than we’ll likely ever spend, no debt, a great partnership and a great life.

This is not me boasting. This is me telling the whiners here to follow the FREE advice given, and let time work its’ magic.

If you are sitting on the fence, start TODAY to ensure your lack-of-financial-worries future.

#9 Honest Realtor on 05.16.21 at 12:10 pm

Garth makes an excellent case for why above-average investors with strong cash and assets should hire a firm like his, with responsible, pro-active investing strategies and low fees.

That will work very well for the top 5%. Go for it!

For everyone else, real estate remains the best investment strategy possible.

Buy a home, hold it for a decade, more or less, and you will enjoy terrific capital gains, just like all have for the last generation and more. Sell and repeat. Do the same with investment properties over a longer time frame. Enjoy the windfall at retirement, plus a roof over your head. (Or rent and spend all your house cash on retirement fun and gifting, no problem.) Once you crystallize your real estate windfall, hire a firm like Garth’s to manage it for your cash flow. Perfect.

Why? Because ordinary folks won’t be reading smart blogs like this. The outrageous rip-offs they will encounter with mutual fund fees, GIC failures and bad advice from [email protected] will gut them. The fees, charges, the terrible underperformance and opportunity costs of ‘normal’ investing with banks and MFs will devastate their future wealth potential. They will be desperate for CPP.

In contrast, the costs of real estate transactions (fees, transfer taxes, even renovations) will be a pittance compared to the lost opportunities and weak returns of regular investing. Not to mention the extremely high likelihood that many will gamble and invest in their BIL’s stock picks and never overcome those losses.

Real estate remains the best solution for 95% of Canadians.

Buy now. Keep buying. Work with good realtors and mortgage brokers. Branch out into investment properties from time to time.

Do this like so many have from 1981 to 2021, and you will never regret it.

Real estate is the answer for the 95%. Go for it!

Sounds like your fire is going out. – Garth

#10 mark on 05.16.21 at 12:17 pm

Kevin O’Leary is no dummy, on record he is now in bitcoin, 3 percent of portfolio, what the problem.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 12:29 pm

B&D portfolio.
Steady as she goes…

The photo.
In some provinces that would be considered a tree..

#12 CJohnC on 05.16.21 at 12:36 pm

Riley’s stick is today’s inflation all right and it will get worse before it gets better with T2’s carbon tax nonsense.

#13 DON on 05.16.21 at 12:39 pm

Great post Garth.

Enjoy the afternoon. Thank you for the advice…some people listen and appreciate the insight.

#14 William on 05.16.21 at 12:49 pm

Would an aggregate bond etf like zag and a rate reset pref etf like zpr do the safe stuff job or would you need more diversification ? Thanks for your thoughts and enjoy a nice Sunday folks

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 12:50 pm

I spoke with two different people last week that are nearing retirement in their municipal govt jobs.

Both were planning on retiring when their numbers reached 35 years with the city.
Full pensions at 55 years of age.

This was fairly typical for City employees over the years.
The two cities ( Van and Coquitlam) have both altered the “bridging of pensions”.

If you pull the pin at 55 you are penalized $300-$400 per month for leaving “early”…
You have to stay til 60 to get a “full” pension.

Anyone else seeing this with govt employee pensions?

#16 Millennial 1%er on 05.16.21 at 12:56 pm

Thank you for your steady drum beat of sanity, Garth. Everyone I know is going balls to the walls with meme stocks & meme crypto. Ruh roh. Meanwhile, I’ve been filling up my RRSP & my spousal RRSP, planning for 55 at 25.

Crypto however, yeah, I’m going to keep on holding on to it. Mostly because I’m one of the few people that took cryptography in university and understand how it actually works. You know it’s getting a little too wild when boomers are talking about Doge

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.16.21 at 12:57 pm

Many times over, thank you for the advice.

#18 WTF on 05.16.21 at 1:07 pm

#9 Honest realtor.

That was a perfect example of “advice” from someone who shouldn’t be giving it. From an industry that desperately needs strict unbiased oversight with the ability to impose severe sanctions. Your insight into the distant future is remarkable. Kreskin lives!

I think back to all the “honest realtors” I have had the dubious pleasure of interacting with. Unremarkable and slightly nauseating.

With the caveat that my statement is a gross generalization and there are certainly ethical Politicians, used car sales, realtors, most are the spawn of satan.

#19 Ryan on 05.16.21 at 1:07 pm

Garth, I’m curious what your take on the self-balancing 1-fund solutions is. That’s not a topic brought up here very often (I suppose they represent your competition), but the value of a financial advisor is far more than simple portfolio construction, and recommending a 20-position portfolio these days frankly feels a bit reckless.

For the same reason that people can’t afford not to invest, we can’t afford to make the barrier to entry overly-complex. People are more likely to wipe out any advantage gained by specific diversification by screwing up their re-balancing or asset locations (of which there is proven negligible value).

I’d like to hear your thought (maybe a blog post?) on this topic, and what you feel the value of an advisor is these days. It’s something you’ve touched on recently, but given the DIY-nature of your audience (and the inherent value of simplicity in a portfolio), I think it bears repeating. Ben Felix has touched on these subjects a lot recently, and I’d love to hear your thoughts, as well.

All the best, from a millennial who’s benefited from your advice greatly.

#20 the Jaguar on 05.16.21 at 1:15 pm

+25 and sunny in southern Alberta today. Perfect day to kick back, enjoy a Asahi Dry Black over ice with a single packet of True Lime, and listen to a good podcast.

Here’s one:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/spark/when-the-chips-are-down-material-scarcity-in-the-tech-industry-1.6024261

What it’s about:

‘The pandemic kicked off a global crisis in microchip supply which has caused big delays in production of everything from cars to video consoles. All signs point to the chip shortage coming to an end, but what about materials that aren’t only scarce, but have no substitutes?’

#21 Brian Ripley on 05.16.21 at 1:20 pm

My chart (April data) of Average Prices of VANCOUVER and TORONTO Single Family Detached Houses, BITCOIN and GOLD all Denominated in USD is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/bitcoin-gold–re.html

Bitcoin and Vancouver Single Family Detached average prices pressed higher. Toronto SFD prices remained flat.

A Toronto single family detached seller needs to get on average another $583,423 to catch up to Vancouver SFD sellers.

Gold bullion prices remained flat as NFT traders perfected the art of consumption.

The animal spirits have remained fully engaged since 1Q 2020 and exuberantly receptive to the pandemic pricing on offer.

Some bearish analysts are suggesting that May-June is a a good time to raise cash before the fall… ie: before the end of 3Q 2021 when masks are ditched and 2nd vaccine shots have been made widespread.

#22 WS on 05.16.21 at 1:23 pm

“Real estate remains the best solution for 95% of Canadians.”

What you meant to say:

“Used to be the best solution for 95% of Canadians.”

Face it mr realtor- it’s over.

#23 TurnerNation on 05.16.21 at 1:35 pm

–Why I predict a severe consumer recession 2022-2024:

1. Hey tourists, take your money elsewhere, unless you like armed checkpoints as this one on a BC highway pass. This place is an occupied, failed state.

https://i.redd.it/i1p9nm2k9dz61.jpg

2. Remember, the EAST side of the Berlin Wall is the Poor side. The Least Coast relied upon tourism, Cruise Ships. All shut down. Now, this. Would you vacation here?

– Amazon gives up filming in Nova Scotia due to Covid restrictions (cbc.ca)

– “Nova Scotia’s Premier Iain Rankin says he’ll continue to use every legal means available to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the province — even if the effort ends up limiting individual rights” (cbc.ca)

– The slightly suspicions “Armstrong Economics” website asserts all our leaders are under the Globalist Doctrine to #reset Kanada. Wait and see.

East Kanada today
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Germany
“Commonly described as a communist state in English usage, it described itself as a socialist “workers’ and peasants’ state””

———-
– And it’s not going away. Read it here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/awareness-resources/vaccinated-against-covid-19.html

#24 Dolce Vita on 05.16.21 at 1:37 pm

It’s the low to middle income nations I worry about in the Pandemic.

Unvaxed those billions may well yet incubate and spawn something more virulent than the World has yet to see.

I well remember last year Science telling us NOT TO WORRY because Covid-19’s a VERY SLOW to mutate virus (1/2 the rate of influenza (flu) and about a 1/4 of HIV rates) but now Science tells us that it has:

– 12,700 identified mutations,
– 12 main types of the virus (identified as 19 A, the original type, through 20 J),
– five strains
– almost 4000 variants, and
– mutates approximately every 11-15 days*

Small wonder populations are loathe at times to listen to Science.

Unfortunately, no other alternative exists other than to roll the dice.

————————-

I hope it continues to go well but something in my gut says “maybe, maybe not”. I find it hard to believe Vax Manufacturers telling me their vax, developed last year BEFORE the mutations (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna), are going to control the above laundry list of Covid-19 permutations and its frolicking in the lungs of humanity.

Vaccinologist I am NOT but I AM a Practitioner of Occam’s Razor.

Draw you own conclusions and recall that half of you have an IQ < 100…just kidding and of course, that is a "Scientific Statistical" fact.

* https://srhd.org/news/2021/coronavirus-mutations-and-variants-what-does-it-mean

#25 stuck in Richmond on 05.16.21 at 2:01 pm

Hi Garth
Thanks for all your wisdom and sane advice in these crazy times. You saved countless souls from financial ruin. Just one question: back in 2018 when interest rates started to rise, preferred shares ETFs fell. Now, they are rising with interest rates. Why is it different this time?
Thanks again

Rate-reset prefs are inversely related to interest rates. But they pay a sweet dividend whatever the weather. – Garth

#26 the Jaguar on 05.16.21 at 2:08 pm

‘I’ll do whatever I have to’: N.S. Premier Iain Rankin doubles down on lockdown+++

Hmmm. Reminds me of….

Ralfe: At any cost? How far would you go with that? How far would you extend that?

Trudeau: Well, just watch me.

#27 Paddy on 05.16.21 at 2:08 pm

Prefs and Canadian equities in a taxable(cash) account yes???…for the dividend tax credit. Where’s does one hold REITs? Cheers

#28 Ed on 05.16.21 at 2:15 pm

Do you count businesses like TD , ENB, FTS as all maple or credit their international holdings?

Maintain exposure, but through an ETF. – Garth

#29 Ok, Doomer on 05.16.21 at 2:17 pm

I’m wondering if anyone saw the CTV news piece last night featuring Sir John Bell, an Edmonton born, Oxford educated immunologist? He had a lot of nasty things to say about Astra Zeneca being benched. He said a lot of bad things would happen to Canada if we didn’t use Astra Zeneca. Hellfire and damnation level stuff on Canadians if they dared to mix vaccines.

What was most interesting is that CTV presented him as an expert, when in reality, he’s one of the people who developed Astra Zeneca and brought it to market. He has a vested interest in selling as much of it as possible. That little bit of context about his conflict of interest would have been nice to know. Shame on CTV!!

My first shot was Astra Zeneca. After watching his interview, I’m making sure my second will be something else. Arrogant weasel IMHO.

#30 Wrk.dover on 05.16.21 at 2:21 pm

In my day job, when not posting dog pictures to a pathetic blog, it’s what I do. Here are the two goals I assume people have: (a) don’t lose money, and (b) give me a reasonable rate of return.
__________________________________

Which leads us into (c) keep clients net worth relatively equal to now into the future, which cash can’t do.

Some day job! Respect!

#31 Phylis on 05.16.21 at 2:26 pm

#16 Millennial 1%er on 05.16.21 at 12:56 pm
Is Agnew still teaching that?

#32 SoggyShorts on 05.16.21 at 2:36 pm

#9 Honest Realtor on 05.16.21 at 12:10 pm

Real estate is the answer for the 95%. Go for it!

*****************
Having a 1 asset strategy is how you stay in the 95%.

Some aim higher.

#33 BillyBob on 05.16.21 at 2:51 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 05.16.21 at 1:37 pm

I hope it continues to go well but something in my gut says “maybe, maybe not”. I find it hard to believe Vax Manufacturers telling me their vax, developed last year BEFORE the mutations (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna), are going to control the above laundry list of Covid-19 permutations and its frolicking in the lungs of humanity.

Vaccinologist I am NOT but I AM a Practitioner of Occam’s Razor.

Draw you own conclusions and recall that half of you have an IQ < 100…just kidding and of course, that is a "Scientific Statistical" fact.

* https://srhd.org/news/2021/coronavirus-mutations-and-variants-what-does-it-mean

================================

The absolute number of mutations isn't that relevant. As the article states, mutations can either help or compromise the virus, and many of the identified mutations are inconsequential as they don't change the biology of the virus.

Of the ones that ARE of concern, the issue seems to be almost completely one of higher transmissibility, not higher mortality.

And the more I read about the mRNA tech, the more impressed I am at what an elegantly suitable weapon it is. A medical smart-bomb. The genetic payload can be tweaked to counter the worst variants and production scaled rapidly in ways not possible with the more conventional vaccines.

So yes, a vaccine you receive now may not be identical to the one you receive in the future, just like the virus. The University of Oxford and others are compiling databases of variants for just this purpose.

Longterm, we're all dead anyway, so try not to fret too much. It really IS a great time to be alive!

#34 espressobob on 05.16.21 at 2:58 pm

#10 Mark

Old KO is well known in investing circles as one, who not only dropped the ball, but tripped over it as well. Clumsey sort of fellow, and his advice would be best, ignored.

Be careful.

#35 BillyBob on 05.16.21 at 3:03 pm

#29 Ok, Doomer on 05.16.21 at 2:17 pm

What was most interesting is that CTV presented him as an expert, when in reality, he’s one of the people who developed Astra Zeneca and brought it to market. He has a vested interest in selling as much of it as possible.

=============================

Or, here’s a thought. Could it be possible that one of the “people who developed the vaccine” might be more of an “expert” on it than the average Facebook-reading mouthbreather, or Liberal politician?

Maybe?

(Being arrogant doesn’t mean someone is factually wrong.)

I’ve been Pfizer-ed but I’ve have taken AZ, Sinopharm, Sputnik if that had been what was on offer at the time. It’s just basic risk management.

————

Apropos of nothing, because I’m just heading out on the Galloping Goose and can’t be arsed to make a separate post here’s another reason why I love the Czech Republic. Not afraid to take a stand and show some support.

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/prague-castle-flies-israeli-flag-in-show-of-solidarity-during-current-conflict

#36 R on 05.16.21 at 3:27 pm

I was surprised by Elon Musk’s sudden reversal in Bitcoin. I figure he is usually 3-5 years out in his thinking ,so the coal/ bitcoin thing didn’t sound right. It sounded like an external political issue, bigger than him, suddenly came up that Elon had not previously considered.

#37 Flounder on 05.16.21 at 3:29 pm

Dear Mr. Honest Realtor. Please go away. Like leave Canada. Our dishonest government, combined with dishonest realtors have taketh everything from the poor and giveth to the rich. I want RE to crash to great depths just to see these *[email protected]#&! Go away. RE agents too.

#38 Ok, Doomer on 05.16.21 at 3:33 pm

#35 BillyBob on 05.16.21 at 3:03 pm
#29 Ok, Doomer on 05.16.21 at 2:17 pm

What was most interesting is that CTV presented him as an expert, when in reality, he’s one of the people who developed Astra Zeneca and brought it to market. He has a vested interest in selling as much of it as possible.

=============================

Or, here’s a thought. Could it be possible that one of the “people who developed the vaccine” might be more of an “expert” on it than the average Facebook-reading mouthbreather, or Liberal politician?

Maybe?

(Being arrogant doesn’t mean someone is factually wrong.)

I’ve been Pfizer-ed but I’ve have taken AZ, Sinopharm, Sputnik if that had been what was on offer at the time. It’s just basic risk management.

————

Valid point BB, but he did a massive face plant on being credible and persuasive. He came off as an out of touch , arrogant sniv who was upset that he wasn’t getting his way, and CTV covered up that it was costing him a lot of $$$. Shot himself in the foot big time.

If he would have said ” Yes, there have been extremely rare cases of blood clots, but all cases that were caught early were successfully treated.”

Then say “In contrast, if you get COVID, which is almost certain given how contagious it is, the chances of having a very bad experience that may drag on for weeks, months or maybe years are very high. So your choice is very small risk of a treatable side-effect or a large chance of having a very bad COVID outcome.”

I totally agree with you that it is a risk assessment issue. But he stepped on the rake.

#39 Stone on 05.16.21 at 4:13 pm

#36 R on 05.16.21 at 3:27 pm
I was surprised by Elon Musk’s sudden reversal in Bitcoin. I figure he is usually 3-5 years out in his thinking ,so the coal/ bitcoin thing didn’t sound right. It sounded like an external political issue, bigger than him, suddenly came up that Elon had not previously considered.

———

It’s called a classic pump and dump. Does Tesla still have any Bitcoin on it’s books. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:28 pm

@#29 Ok Doomer
“Sir John Bell, an Edmonton born, Oxford educated immunologist…”

++++

Sir John Bell

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bell_(physician)

The guy has more degrees than a thermometer.
A geneticist, immunologist, etc etc etc.

He may be an arrogant chav but…. I think he’s earned it.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm

This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.

#42 Phylis on 05.16.21 at 4:37 pm

#36 R on 05.16.21 at 3:27 pm
I was surprised by Elon Musk’s sudden reversal in Bitcoin. I figure he is usually 3-5 years out in his thinking ,so the coal/ bitcoin thing didn’t sound right. It sounded like an external political issue, bigger than him, suddenly came up that Elon had not previously considered.
Xxxxx
Yes, more regulation and enforcement.

#43 espressobob on 05.16.21 at 5:04 pm

#36 R

As Garth pointed out, there are no fundamentals supporting crypto. Pure speculation.

Owning publically traded corporations that actually make profit over time, is the market. Investors get this while some choose otherwise. Their outcome, well let’s just say, is what it is.

The point some should consider is who do you follow? Is it time proven methods like John Bogle or those offered by Elon, or others like him?

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 5:09 pm

#35 Billy Bob
———-
Apropos of nothing, because I’m just heading out on the Galloping Goose and can’t be arsed to make a separate post here’s another reason why I love the Czech Republic. Not afraid to take a stand and show some support.

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/prague-castle-flies-israeli-flag-in-show-of-solidarity-during-current-conflict
—————-
Talking about experts and arrogance:
You’re an expert on Israel and Palastine affairs?
Or is it just your right wing bias showing?

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 5:17 pm

#36 R on 05.16.21 at 3:27 pm
I was surprised by Elon Musk’s sudden reversal in Bitcoin. I figure he is usually 3-5 years out in his thinking ,so the coal/ bitcoin thing didn’t sound right. It sounded like an external political issue, bigger than him, suddenly came up that Elon had not previously considered.
——————
Like so many others, You’re giving Elon, the Clown far too much credit.
Let’s focus on events and people that really matter.

#46 westcdn on 05.16.21 at 5:19 pm

I don’t post much as I write. I find writing therapeutic. Helps me get free my mind from baggage.

There is difference between me and a friend. He tends to pull people down where I prefer to build them up – wasted time in most cases. And is not a lack of intelligence, just guts. There are bullets I cant deflect.

Another movie I liked was “Bullit” with Steve in Frisco. I have to admit an admiration for Clint Eastwood. One was “Outlaw Josey Wales”. Chief Dan George was great. He was very good in “Little Big Man”. I remember the line where he says to Josey, “what about the guy on the right – I knew you would get him – I could have missed”.

Hmm, Monday is coming. I will watch. Experience has taught me May and September are months to be cautious. Something about human psychology. I did well on Friday but the rest of the week crushed overall.

I will look at the wounded and decide. Alexander the Great was reputed to carry a killing stone. It was intended to speed death through a skull blow. He did it himself.

If you are not willing to make a stand – don’t me expect to protect.

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 05.16.21 at 5:31 pm

I bought 2 shares of Berkshire Hathaway back in the 1990s. They’re worth a million today. Switched to indexing afterwards. How do people determine what to do with stock that was bought in the last century?

Sell it and forget it?

#48 the Jaguar on 05.16.21 at 5:49 pm

@#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 5:09 pm
#35 Billy Bob
———-
Apropos of nothing, because I’m just heading out on the Galloping Goose and can’t be arsed to make a separate post here’s another reason why I love the Czech Republic. Not afraid to take a stand and show some support.

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/prague-castle-flies-israeli-flag-in-show-of-solidarity-during-current-conflict
—————-
Talking about experts and arrogance:
You’re an expert on Israel and Palastine affairs?
Or is it just your right wing bias showing?+++++

Palestine, not Palastine.
You missed the point. ( As usual). He wasn’t weighing in on the conflict, but expressing admiration for a government and country that stood up for a friend instead of taking the politically safe road of saying nothing. It’s not about what ‘side’ someone is on, but about the courage to take a stand for what you believe in….

And stop waving the ‘right wing’ flag around like some boogeyman. To be more on the ‘right’ of issues like fiscal responsibility, ownership rights, less government in our lives and personal responsibility doesn’t mean a person doesn’t value inclusivity, compassion, human rights for all, equal opportunity, etc. There’s enough ‘left wing’ bias around to sink several ships. Who’s behind ‘Cancel Culture’ and other nonsense these days?
Our gracious host on this blog didn’t serve as a member of the NDP or Liberal party in case your memory shorted out.

#49 R on 05.16.21 at 5:53 pm

45
You are giving yourself far too much credit

#50 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 6:08 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm
This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.
———–
You suddenly a lover of nature?
Maybe a tree hugger and Eco-warrior next?

But you’re right about the missing bees.
But, my fruit trees seem to have been pollinated better than last year.
Can’t figure out nature.
Like the stock market.
But birds are coming back, big time.
Even saw some Blue Jays (not the base ball team)

#51 Brian on 05.16.21 at 6:25 pm

You do realize that Elon’s tweet was all about Tesla maintaining and not putting their renewable energy tax credit at risk. He didn’t actually sell any.
That being said, it does show a weakness that one person can have that type of influence at this moment in time.
Funny how crypto energy usage is calculated and reported on, but the same isn’t done for gold mining or even banking operations.
To say there is no inherent value in crypto – especially eth – is illogical and shows a lack of understanding.

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 6:29 pm

#48 Jaguar
Did I ask you?
Billy Bob is a big boy, I assume.
He can speak for himself.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 6:39 pm

@#50 Pollenating Ponzies Predicament
“But you’re right about the missing bees.”

++++

I thought I might have been just me and my small garden at work but I find it odd that there has been no mention of a bee decline.
I had hummingbirds last all winter outside my shop.
I had a feeder and I built a small heater to keep the bird feeder juice from freezing..
Those tough little suckers were there at 6am in the dark in Feb drinking nectar. snow on the ground and minus temps for almost 2 weeks.
But this year.
No Bees.

#54 the Jaguar on 05.16.21 at 6:43 pm

@#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 6:29 pm
#48 Jaguar
Did I ask you?
Billy Bob is a big boy, I assume.
He can speak for himself.+++++

Perhaps he is a ‘big boy’..(ahem)….

He can sure as hell ‘whup yo ass’ any day of the week.

#55 FNAiks on 05.16.21 at 6:44 pm

My buddy who is an agent told me confidentially this weekend that the GTA real estate market is starting to crack. Please keep this between us.
P.S. Looks like Elon is losing it. This week will be an interesting one for crypto holders. Good luck to all.

#56 Phylis on 05.16.21 at 6:56 pm

#51 Brian on 05.16.21 at 6:25 pm
You do realize that Elon’s tweet was all about Tesla maintaining and not putting their renewable energy tax credit at risk. He didn’t actually sell any.
That being said, it does show a weakness that one person can have that type of influence at this moment in time.
Funny how crypto energy usage is calculated and reported on, but the same isn’t done for gold mining or even banking operations.
To say there is no inherent value in crypto – especially eth – is illogical and shows a lack of understanding.
Xxxxxxx
It seems to be more like a ticket for a virtual concert that will never be held. You know someone initially paid for it and as a holder you can scalp it as well as the next holder. Talk it up and you can get more for it. The show must go on.

#57 espressobob on 05.16.21 at 7:02 pm

#51 Brian

From a distance anything can be seen as a currency. Grains of rice, copper tubing, Gold.

Legal tender on the other hand is what our governments declare’s it to be. Income is taxable,further supporting economic needs like education, medical and infrastructure as examples. Economics 101.

Pseudo commodities are speculation plays exercised by a few who believe there’s a pot of whatever at the end of a rainbow.

What is there to figure out?

#58 Nonplused on 05.16.21 at 7:15 pm

“Not everything advances at the same time. Like one of those old pre-Elon eight-banger engines, some cylinders rise while others fall, and you keep moving ahead.”

The market seems more like a v-twin these days, where both cylinders more or less go up and down together. But when they go down they come right back up again.

It will be interesting to se how things play out over the next year or two. Rising inflation and rising taxes don’t make for a happy main street or middle class. (The poor do not care about taxes, they don’t pay any. The rich don’t really care either because they just embed them in prices.)

But what will be really interesting is how they walk back all the free CERB and such money. I understand there are 8 million job openings in the US right now but nobody wants to go to work. Why would you if not working pays so well? It turns out that incentives do work, and if you pay people to not work than that is exactly what they do (or don’t do I guess) in large numbers.

Maybe that’s the plan? Massive numbers of undocumented immigrants doing all the work while everyone else sits at home collecting government cheese and voting democrat while the rich just keep getting richer?

#59 Lead Paint on 05.16.21 at 7:17 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm
This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.
———–

Lots of bees by our house in west van.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 7:29 pm

#59 Lead Paint on 05.16.21 at 7:17 pm
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm
This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.
———–

Lots of bees by our house in west van.
————–
Of course,
Everything is better in west van.

#61 Nonplused on 05.16.21 at 7:32 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm
This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.

——————————-

Maybe the bees are also on CERB?

Here in Calgary the bloom is just starting so I am not too worried about it. It’s been cool and dry. The queen wasps are about though and I am killing as many as I can.

It is a curious thing in some ways that the bees are struggling but the wasps are at epidemic (ahem) levels. Their biology is so similar you’d think they would both be subject to the same forces. But I guess the bees are more vulnerable to pesticides and herbicides due to their diet.

#62 Drill Baby Drill on 05.16.21 at 7:40 pm

Even if you hate EV’s there is very good potential for long term investing in copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel mining.

#63 Sunny on VI on 05.16.21 at 7:46 pm

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 12:50 pm
I spoke with two different people last week that are nearing retirement in their municipal govt jobs.

Both were planning on retiring when their numbers reached 35 years with the city.
Full pensions at 55 years of age.

This was fairly typical for City employees over the years.
The two cities ( Van and Coquitlam) have both altered the “bridging of pensions”.

If you pull the pin at 55 you are penalized $300-$400 per month for leaving “early”…
You have to stay til 60 to get a “full” pension.

Anyone else seeing this with govt employee pensions?
————————————————————–

Yes, BC provincial gov’t and crown pensions (and likely others) changed a few years ago. I would have had full pension at age 55 but with the change I would have had to stay until age 58 (credit given for time in plan before changes made). However, the change benefitted my spouse who only had a few years of pension so as a family unit we are status quo.

Even so, I resigned before age 55 and took the commuted value. Never thought I’d enjoy retirement as much as I do – highly recommend it.

#64 tkid on 05.16.21 at 7:49 pm

Private industry pensions have always been reduced for early retirement.

As for Elon, he ran up the value of Bitcoin, now he is running it down again. I expect he’ll run it up again in half a year or so.

#65 Brian on 05.16.21 at 7:50 pm

#57 expressobob
Legal tender on the other hand is what our governments declare’s it to be.

You have just inversely named the #1 value of crypto – it is not held in trust by the Trump/Biden/Xi/Trudeau’s of the world, and last I checked cap gains from crypto are taxable for the benefit of the people. These “leaders” cannot just turn on a printer and change the supply.
Concurrently, there are 2 blliion people in the world who cannot access financial services and done properly, this will be able to solve this problem for them.
Just like any start up there is huge risk, and possibly something might come along and unseed crypto, but right now it is the best solution to solve a lot of the world’s problems.

#66 Bees in Vancouver on 05.16.21 at 7:52 pm

Sorry Garth, don’t mean to make this a horticulture site…but good news, there are bees in East Van and even some local honey producers.

Apparently the new thing is “No Mow May” which encourages people to mow less or not at all in May to allow the grass with clover, dandelions, etc to grow to allow the birds, bees and other critters to feed.

#67 Barb on 05.16.21 at 7:58 pm

“There’s more to life than money. But life without it is less.”
———————————
I think it was Cher who said “it’s easier to cry in a Mercedes than on a bicycle”.

#68 kommykim on 05.16.21 at 8:01 pm

RE: #15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 12:50 pm
If you pull the pin at 55 you are penalized $300-$400 per month for leaving “early”…
You have to stay til 60 to get a “full” pension.
Anyone else seeing this with govt employee pensions?

=======================================

With the Federal gov pensions, if you were hired “recently” (2013 and later I think) then you have to wait until 60 to retire without penalty vs someone hired before 2013 who can go at 55 without penalty if they have 35 yrs of service.

#69 Job#1 on 05.16.21 at 8:31 pm

#48 The Jaguar

“Our gracious host on this blog didn’t serve as a member of the NDP or Liberal party in case your memory shorted out.”

Wrong. A quick search would produce this (Wiki).

“Conservative Party suspended him from the Conservative caucus for his independent stance and he sat as an Independent MP until February 6, 2007, when he joined the Liberal Party of Canada.[1]”

Hey, it was the closest thing at the time to a PC. Besides, the wine list was better. Garth

#70 Brian on 05.16.21 at 8:39 pm

#63/15
The crown insurer in BC still has full DB pension at 55 but you have to meet the rule of 85; age + years of service 85 or greater. My buddy is 54 with 32 years in and works there and will be eligible next year. I have been trying to coax him to look into commuted value but you know what they say, you can lead a horse to water…

#71 Dividends are my favourite on 05.16.21 at 8:45 pm

#7 Joey Kin on 05.16.21 at 11:59 am
Good advice, but is it worth holding any dividend producing assets outside Canada? Otherwise one doesn’t get the dividend tax credit?

If you hold US stocks in a registered account ( RRSP, RESP etc) you don’t pay the 15 % dividend withholding tax ( Uncle Sam takes 15%)
If you hold US stocks in a TFSA, Uncle Sam will take a 15% cut of the dividends, but you do not have to pay tax to CRA.
If you hold US stocks in a non registered account, Uncle Sam takes 15%. Ouch
Don’t hold canadian ETFs or mutual funds that have US holdings as the withholding tax is applied to these funds internally.
Instead hold US listed ETFs in your registered accounts and you aren’t pinched when receiving cash distributions. Or hold individual US stocks if you’re savvy enough.

Canadian dividend tax credit only applies to non registered accounts and I believe only applies to Canadian dividend payers.

To be honest, imho there isn’t much need for a Canadians to invest in international stocks when the US provides us with companies to invest in that are global.

#72 espressobob on 05.16.21 at 8:51 pm

#65 Brian

Crypto is held by speculators regardless of their justifications. The greater fool theory comes to mind on this one.

Nothing like a good conspiracy theory to explain away ignorance to the n’th degree.

Sure, inflation is a metric none of us want, but as investors we position our portfolios accordingly. We keep things real.

Oh, and while the next time you fill up your gas tank, buy groceries, pay rent or mortgage, and load up on cat liter, just remember what you have to exchange for products or services rendered.

The argument for debasement and hyperinflation is hypothetical and nonsensical.

Investors know the game. We come out ahead.

#73 Job#1 on 05.16.21 at 9:14 pm

“Hey, it was the closest thing at the time to a PC. Besides, the wine list was better. Garth”

I could think of worse reasons to cross the floor…cheers!

#74 the Jaguar on 05.16.21 at 9:20 pm

@#69 Job#1 on 05.16.21 at 8:31 pm
#48 The Jaguar
“Our gracious host on this blog didn’t serve as a member of the NDP or Liberal party in case your memory shorted out.”
Wrong. A quick search would produce this (Wiki).
“Conservative Party suspended him from the Conservative caucus for his independent stance and he sat as an Independent MP until February 6, 2007, when he joined the Liberal Party of Canada.[1]”

Hey, it was the closest thing at the time to a PC. Besides, the wine list was better. Garth+++

Seems like an obvious case of exercising the age old tactic of “Revenge is a dish best served cold”, to me. Or maybe it’s a chapter out of the ‘Art of War’.

Paul Martin had retired one year earlier. Those Libs weren’t today’s Lib’s. Not by a longshot.
Chretien remains one of the Jaguar’s favourite PM’s.

Your observations are singular, Job#1. We’ll be keeping a close eye on you…..
Now get back in the ring….

#75 Jake on 05.16.21 at 9:28 pm

Garth, I read this article a couple months back. Jeremy Siegel (I realize he is touting his own funds) thinks 75/25 is more reasonable today as he believes low rates are here to stay for awhile yet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/08/whartons-jeremy-siegel-60-40-portfolio-doesnt-cut-it-anymore.html

Nope. Not for those who want returns and controlled risk. It’s not a race. – Garth

#76 BillyBob on 05.16.21 at 9:32 pm

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 5:09 pm
#35 Billy Bob
———-
Apropos of nothing, because I’m just heading out on the Galloping Goose and can’t be arsed to make a separate post here’s another reason why I love the Czech Republic. Not afraid to take a stand and show some support.

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/prague-castle-flies-israeli-flag-in-show-of-solidarity-during-current-conflict
—————-
Talking about experts and arrogance:
You’re an expert on Israel and Palastine affairs?
Or is it just your right wing bias showing?

===========================

the jaguar got it, I do find something admirable about people who take a stand on something rather than equivocate endlessly. Even if I don’t agree with them. In this case I most certainly do.

You on the other hand, seem to feel provoked and bring nothing but labels and animus. I guess that’s your own impartiality on display? Of course I’m biased, I have many Jewish friends both within and outside of Israel. That doesn’t preclude me from having compassion for the innocent victims of both sides of any conflict. But even ultra-liberal Canada considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Pull your head out.

I’m not interested in debating the issue with you and I’m sure Garth has no interest in us going down that road. But I will say that while I don’t claim to be an expert on Israeli/Palestinian affairs, I can at least spell it.

#77 lifexprt on 05.16.21 at 9:48 pm

Ah you mean no day trading short term FAANG options? But I am on a hot streak!

#78 Doug in London on 05.16.21 at 9:59 pm

The best time to invest in stocks or equity ETFs is when they go on sale. When did that last happen? Oh, about 14 months ago.

#79 Faron on 05.16.21 at 10:27 pm

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.16.21 at 5:09 pm
#35 Billy Bob

Ah, dont take it too hard Ponz. He’s just bitter about how miserably cold it is here in SW BC.

All but one nation on the UN security council voted calling for a cease fire. The nation that didn’t just, coincidentally, happens to be the arms supplier to Israel and the nation who recently de escalated their active war presence in Afghanistan. Gotta have conflict to sell arms. Gotta sell arms to make the billionaires richer. If you can direct those weapons at islamic civilians, all the better. I’m sure those children who have been killed would have joined Hamas eventually. Right?

#80 The West on 05.16.21 at 11:22 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm

This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

Nothing.

———————————–

Yep. The flower beds were alive with the bees this gorgeous afternoon.

#81 Exurban on 05.17.21 at 12:20 am

#15 Crowded

Those changes are being made by the BC Municipal Pension Plan, not by individual cities. They go into effect Jan. 1, 2022. They are not retroactive. Read it from the source:

https://mpp.pensionsbc.ca/board-communique-march-29-2021

Scroll down to the heading “ Early retirement rules for group 1
What’s changing:” .

Special bonus, even though I’ve been too good to you already – bees are buzzing around flowers in Coquitlam and Port Coquitlam today. Never believe greens.

#82 Cyclists unite on 05.17.21 at 12:50 am

35 WilliamRobert

“I’m just heading out on the Galloping Goose”

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/letters-feb-23-stop-goose-blame-game-drug-use-dangers-decline-of-beacon-hill-1.24285587?utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles

I hope you’re not on the dreaded e-bike, or walking with earbuds. If yes to either, may be better to

just

stay

home…..

#83 Stoph on 05.17.21 at 1:00 am

#61 Nonplused on 05.16.21 at 7:32 pm
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 4:32 pm
This past week the lower brainland has had some really great weather .
Sunny, warm, all the azaleas and Rhodos are in bloom.
Tons of flowers blooming.

Has anyone noticed any bees?
Usually dozens all over the garden in the Spring bloom.

This year?
Nothing.

——————————-

Maybe the bees are also on CERB?

Here in Calgary the bloom is just starting so I am not too worried about it. It’s been cool and dry. The queen wasps are about though and I am killing as many as I can.

It is a curious thing in some ways that the bees are struggling but the wasps are at epidemic (ahem) levels. Their biology is so similar you’d think they would both be subject to the same forces. But I guess the bees are more vulnerable to pesticides and herbicides due to their diet.

—————————————————————-

There’s a couple of key parasites / diseases, namely mites and American Foul Brood, that are detrimental to bees that don’t affect wasps. These diseases have been spread mainly by commercial beekeeping practices. To judge ecological health, I’d sooner look the overall pollinator population rather than honeybees, which in my opinion are pretty much domesticated livestock.

#84 Nonplused on 05.17.21 at 2:31 am

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.16.21 at 6:39 pm
@#50 Pollenating Ponzies Predicament
“But you’re right about the missing bees.”

++++

I thought I might have been just me and my small garden at work but I find it odd that there has been no mention of a bee decline.
I had hummingbirds last all winter outside my shop.
I had a feeder and I built a small heater to keep the bird feeder juice from freezing..
Those tough little suckers were there at 6am in the dark in Feb drinking nectar. snow on the ground and minus temps for almost 2 weeks.
But this year.
No Bees.

———————————–

Did you check for “murder hornets”? Apparently you have them now and they will kill a whole bee colony just to steal the grubs. They seem to have no interest in eating the adults, just killing them. I have no idea what kind of trap works but I know they have been trapped on the west coast. They are big enough that they can put a radio transponder on them to find the nest. Another example of “Our Horrifying World”.

It seems like now that “murder hornets” have made it to the west coast, we may well have to get used to them along with killer bees, viruses, bears, SJW’s, and all the other things that want to kill us.

#85 Steven Rowlandson on 05.17.21 at 6:24 am

“Where, oh where, to invest?”

Something that pays dividends and has the possibility of a capital gain.

Interest like all rents is usury and is religiously condemned.

#86 the Jaguar on 05.17.21 at 8:19 am

Interesting article in this mornings N.P. Excerpt and link below. Keep hope alive:

“Canada is no doubt different. There is no Brexit question. The Liberal party is a strong centre-left presence with enough savvy to occasionally apply a populist lens to its policies, particularly its spending commitments. But the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating worrying economic trends, the left is increasingly distracted by culture war virtue signalling and the status quo Conservative voting base simply is not big enough to elect a majority government. It might be easy to tune out international politics with so much going on at home, but if you are a Canadian Conservative who wants to win, you ought not to.”

https://pressreader.com/article/281681142769402

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 8:31 am

@#79 Faron
“If you can direct those weapons at islamic civilians, all the better.”

++++
While the Israeli’s are no paragons of virtue.
I think the rockets from Gaza aimed it Israeli civilians might, just might, have something to do with the recent skirmish.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14953553/israel-prepares-invade-gaza/

“Stop shooting missiles at me and I’ll stop bombing you…”

Odd how that works.

#88 Dharma Bum on 05.17.21 at 9:07 am

Ponzius, Billy Bob, Faron, Crowdie, Jag, et al:
————————————————————————-

Some zealots are just gluttons for punishment.

One trick ponies that keep yielding the same results.

Destruction, poverty, misery, humiliation, and despair.

Then they like to blame others for their predicament.

Rinse and repeat.

#89 TurnerNation on 05.17.21 at 9:11 am

Do you get the feeling this country is being shut down, isolated, and surrounded?
Hey tourists come to KANADA!! Sunny Toronto where’s it’s been just too dangerous to eat on a patio – since Nov 2020. Shut down since then . Just TWO more weeks longer…

.Vancouver police use RCMP helicopter, drive cars on beach to send people home (citynews1130.com)

. U.S. Senate passes bill to allow Alaska-bound cruise ships to bypass B.C. this summer (msn.com)

— Again its been suggested watch Australia, Kanada as the main test zones of this wackiness. Will we follow.

.Australia refuses to reopen border until mid-2022(news.yahoo.com)

— So you wish to travel. Get ready to pay graft at each step. Seen elsewhere and so much for the Vax eh? Travel/Movement rights are gonzo.

“To get into Portugal today we did a PCR test on Friday. It wasn’t that easy to sort and cost £129 for a courier to drop off, wait for us to test and then take away.
Once I got the result, I had to log into to our airline website and log the certificate. This was complicated.

You also need to take an antigen test which you need to buy, take with you and use as a pre-departure test for when we’re leaving Portugal. This £40 test has to be done in front of a clinician before flying back to the UK.

I’m doing a video call with a clinic in the UK 24 hours before I travel back so they can see me do it and the result. When I get back to the UK, I must do a PCR test within two days of my arrival and this has to be organised in advance of departure. This was another £99”

#90 leebow on 05.17.21 at 9:18 am

These days investing seems easy. But this will change, as it always does. Ideally, an investor should be able to switch between risk levels, incorporate market views and specific event forecasts. But it’s a lot of work that won’t pay off unless the investor manages more than a few million. Otherwise, there are better ways to spend time. Money managers can scale the effort and often have the relevant skills.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 10:37 am

61 Nonplusd

Here in Calgary the bloom is just starting so I am not too worried about it. It’s been cool and dry. The queen wasps are about though and I am killing as many as I can.
——————
Why are you killing wasps?
They are very good at keeping pests like aphids under control.

#92 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 10:59 am

“…invest not like a cowboy but instead for predictable, boring long-term returns.”
___

This is why I had to give my $ to a pro to handle…

#93 Sail Away on 05.17.21 at 11:01 am

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 8:31 am

While the Israeli’s are no paragons of virtue.
I think the rockets from Gaza aimed it Israeli civilians might, just might, have something to do with the recent skirmish.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14953553/israel-prepares-invade-gaza/

“Stop shooting missiles at me and I’ll stop bombing you…”

Odd how that works.

———-

Yep. And how does it always start?

[insert name] attacks Israel. Retaliation ensues.

Wonder what would happen if [insert name] did not attack first?

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 11:03 am

Peak house?
A couple of houses in my neighborhood have been on the market for over a month now.
FOPO (fear of priced out) replacing FOMO soon?

#95 Left GTA on 05.17.21 at 11:06 am

I am glad I resigned and commuted my pension. The formula to calculate CV changed in December so I watched as my CV value was slowly going down and I read an article that the 10 year bond yield going up would negatively impact the CV Then the Cola was being taken out of the CV calculation this spring so I thought that’s it I am done. I was on reddit some advisor was saying that all DB pensions are guaranteed. I am not so sure about that but I was with HOOPP. I thought only death and taxes are guaranteed. I read on here about taking the CV so I did and now in the process of sorting out my investments. I guess we will see how it goes my old friends at work think I am nuts!

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 11:08 am

@#90 Ponzius Pestus
“They are very good at keeping pests like aphids under control.”

++++
Fascinating.
If there was only a wasp that could keep Ponzius Pestus under control.

#97 DonCarlos on 05.17.21 at 11:12 am

Basically following this advice. But going to put 5% crypto in.

#98 Faron on 05.17.21 at 11:33 am

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 8:31 am

@#79 Faron

John Oliver nails it with the below. I’ll only add that Netanyahu is a far-right leader losing his grip on power. Starting or amplifying a skirmish if not a war is standard fare in any country’s political playbook.

https://twitter.com/BlackChaosGG/status/1394163727444938755

#99 Sask to AB on 05.17.21 at 11:44 am

Wonderful post, Garth. Thanks

F58AB

#100 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 12:44 pm

Was out for a walk late last night – something in the sky caught my peripheral vision. I looked up to see a long line of “stars” hauling A across the sky heading East. Only thing it could have been was a group of Starlink Satellites. looked like hundreds, all clustered tightly together, not like the Starlink satellite vids on YouTube. These were definitely in a cluster/bunch and not a long spaced out line, moving fast and low for something in orbit.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.21 at 12:53 pm

Not to worry people.
The BC govt car insurance monopoly knows what is best for you and will stand 100% behind you in a claim.
Now that they have legislated the right for accident victims to sue for bodily injury

ICBC always has your back…. until it doesnt.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/victim-of-vehicle-theft-in-burnaby-sues-icbc-alleges-adjuster-made-up-intoxication-story-3785050

Bonus incentives for denying claims??????

#102 -=withwings- on 05.17.21 at 12:58 pm

@#94 I am glad I resigned and commuted my pension. The formula to calculate CV changed in December so I watched as my CV value was slowly going down and I read an article that the 10 year bond yield going up would negatively impact the CV Then the Cola was being taken out of the CV calculation this spring so I thought that’s it I am done. I was on reddit some advisor was saying that all DB pensions are guaranteed. I am not so sure about that but I was with HOOPP. I thought only death and taxes are guaranteed. I read on here about taking the CV so I did and now in the process of sorting out my investments. I guess we will see how it goes my old friends at work think I am nuts!

———

HOOPP’s returns have been in the 10-12% range every year. They also have a history of raising pension benefits. In the last few years they have bumped up the benefit calculations (over and above their usual inflation adjustments) twice. As an individual investor you will be very, very hard pressed to beat them. The only reason to CV out of HOOPP would be if you expect to die younger, and want to commute full value to your spouse. Your spouse is guaranteed full value for 15 years, but after that would only get 60 or 80% of value.

#103 IHCTD9 on 05.17.21 at 1:55 pm

#61 Nonplused on 05.16.21 at 7:32 pm

Maybe the bees are also on CERB?

Here in Calgary the bloom is just starting so I am not too worried about it. It’s been cool and dry. The queen wasps are about though and I am killing as many as I can.

It is a curious thing in some ways that the bees are struggling but the wasps are at epidemic (ahem) levels. Their biology is so similar you’d think they would both be subject to the same forces. But I guess the bees are more vulnerable to pesticides and herbicides due to their diet.
____

Lots of wasps out here too. I have a big junk lumber pile, and at any time during the summer, you can see the ‘vein” trails etched into the surface of the weathered wood where the wasps have chewed off the grey layer exposing the fresh white wood underneath. Somewhere around here there are a lot of wasp nests.

This year so far I’ve noticed a bumper crop of Turtles. Every boulder sticking out of the local creek has 15-20 of them out in the sun when I drive by. Possums still increasing – I expect more of these than we’ve ever seen after the mild winter, which is good news for my area (just keep them out of your yard). Yard rabbits seem to be making a comeback after 2 years of not being too many around.

We’re going to have another outbreak of tent caterpillars this summer too. I’m told it’ll be even worse than last year (when you could literally hear them devouring the trees if you went outside on a still night).

#104 Ian on 05.17.21 at 3:14 pm

Wife and I 39/40 have $500K invested and 2 DB pensions, no real estate. Wanted to look at a house on the street and neighbourhood we’ve wanted for 2 years. Asking is $999,999, previously sold for $599,999 in 2015. We can’t afford it and daycare without taking out $300K in savings. Crazy!! $300k to afford an average home, 15km from DT Ottawa that is 20 years old (ASKING! NOT SOLD PRICE). I give up! Seems like everyone is a millionaire.

#105 Satori Black on 05.17.21 at 3:37 pm

Funny thing about Real estate… not everyone makes money, there is a ton where people are selling for the same price they bought in 2008. As for realtors… here’s how it goes nowadays:

You look
You search
Pick a realtor you want to “gift” a sale/purchase commission to…cause they do ‘literally nothing’ but print out a form

If you are buying or selling, you pretty much are gifting money to them to help you with a self explanatory form. These days, Realtors are the laziest I have EVER EVER seen.

I wish we could get rid of these dinosaurs!!

Basic math. Add expenses, taxes, insurance and interest, gifted commission… in the mean time, could be a tidy second income on your cash investment.

#106 Left GTA on 05.17.21 at 6:39 pm

#102 Yes HOOPP is a great pension! It was a very difficult decision. There were a lot of factors to consider. Hubby was packaged out just before covid and is retired. We anticipated that may happen so we sold the GTA house and downsized to a home in KW. Now I was commuting to my job, I was likely going to look for a new job closer to my new home, my job was changing every couple of weeks and shifts were all over the place due to redeployment and then my Dad got covid and is a long hauler. So I decided to take time off to take care of him. I am glad I did his recovery is going well. I am 50 so I would not be able to have access to any of my pension until 55. Also if I left it in HOOPP and took it at 55 and then hubby and I both died after the 15 yrs the kids would get nothing. This way I can do some estate planning as well and spread it out from 50 until death. I guess fingers crossed. Garth’s advice has done really well for us so far. I think since following Garth’s advice probably back in 2012 or so my investments average around 8% I have held a higher amount in US equity. When I looked at leaving it in HOOPP they tell you what my monthly payout would be at 55. One of the things I noticed was at 55 all that income is taxable where as now I will have to pay a lump of taxes but I have put some into unreg dividends and tfsa’s and they will be taxed more efficiently going forward until 65. Also have some in RRSP that over the next 5 years I can draw out some being in a low tax bracket and the rest in a LIRA till 55. I put it on a spreadsheet and the difference of leaving it in vs. doing it this way was not much difference especially because of the taxes. As long as I average around 6% I think it will work out about the same. I guess we will know in 5 yrs. My pension is not a huge amount because I worked part time a lot. It would have paid me about 22,000 at 55-65 then 20,000 after that. If I worked the 5 more years it would have been closer to 28,000 and 25,000. I guess sometimes in life you just have to take a risk.