Recency

A new crypto launched Monday had a market cap of $45 billion US by Wednesday morning. Real estate values in wee Lunenburg have inflated 63%. A guy on Instagram boasted he just got a home equity line of credit so he could purchase plywood. Doctor copper is up 40% lately. The federal government is now borrowing about $1 billion a day, spending the money and adding it to the debt.

Strange days. They’ve led people – many of them seem to wander in here, seeking a clean washroom – to think money’s becoming relatively worthless, fiat currency is doomed, houses will be $5 million each in a few years, hyperinflation is coming so speculation is good and only losers don’t borrow their brains out.

Some of that is true. Most isn’t. As usual, extreme views end up in a bad place. So let’s review – realistically – what may be coming. Here are six core beliefs.

Inflation, but not hyper.
The pandemic skewed a lot, increasing demand for certain things while screwing up the supply chain. Won’t last. As the virus fades normal activities will resume. Puppy prices will fall, along with that of PT lumber. People will spend money once again on gas, pants and vacations. Over time supply chains will restore, imbalances correct and prices normalize. Yes, we will have inflation – double or triple that of today – but no hyperinflation. Google the term and find out why.

Higher rates, but not fast.
Inflation and GDP growth do not come without increasing interest rates. CBs are mandated to preserve the value of currencies, and adjusting the cost of money is a central tool in doing so. As the economy expands, monetary stimulus contracts, which means the end of dirt-cheap borrowing rates and central bank snorfling of bonds, mortgages and others securities. Rates are going up over the next few years, but not enough to wound the economy. Just enough to hurt on the next mortgage renewal.

Herd immunity, but slowly
The rash AZ halt this week sure doesn’t help much, and it’s obvious Canada got off to a glacial start with dosing, compared to the US. So far under 40% have had shot one and less than 5% have had both. At this pace it’ll be well into the autumn before Canada gets the herd all vaxed up. America, in contrast, has inoculated with a frenzy, but now stalls in the face of politicized vaccine hesitancy. May God help us if this bug’s still here in two years when Trump emerges, like the cicadas.

Reopening, but all year.
Fool me once, not twice. Governments across Canada are in no hurry to end lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, restrictions, quarantines, closed borders or travel barriers. The Third Wave was a brutal surprise, fueled by variants we couldn’t even imagine eight months ago. Leaders failed. After coming so close to health care system collapse – a total embarrassment for a First World country which pours $270 billion a year into the system – politicians understand they tread on thin ground. Weep for the hairdressers and Main Street.

FOMO, but we’ve hit a wall
No, all houses will not cost a few million in five years. Supply (listings) will be growing steadily in coming months. Mortgage costs will be rising. The stress test is upped starting in June. Bidding wards are already quelled.  Incomes are falling behind, and will be slow to grow (see the above). Affordability is appalling, and it takes three decades to save for a detached down payment in the GTA. As aggressive nesting and remote learning fade (see below), much will change. Most impacted will be those who moved far away from employment. The hicks will delight in seeing them leave again.

WFH, but not much longer
Five million people left the workplace and moved into their bedrooms, cottages or kitchens. Surveys show those under 40 (the work-life balance myth) love it. Too bad. It’s over soon. WFH works for some employers, of course, but not for most. Major US financial outfits (Goldman, JPMorgan, Blackstone, Citigroup) are going back. Soon the Canadian banks will follow. NYC opens up fully July 1st. The debate now is whether or not employers have the right to require returning workers to be vaccinated (in general, they do) and will force it (unlikely). Remote workers will run the risk of being more easily replaced, offered reduced compensation and blowing career advancement (out of sight, out of mind – human nature). Dogs everywhere will be devastated.

This blog’s often mentioned recency bias. That’s when people think what just happened will take place forever. The new normal. So they believe house prices will rise without end, for example. Or think they can stay at home and collect full pay after the health emergency is over. Or feel two-by-fours will forever be unattainable.

In the real world things end up happening for a reason. Do not lose your way.

About the picture: “I’ve been reading your blog since the days when the photos and commentary could get a bit racy,” writes Ian. “Thank you for your efforts in improving our financial literacy and entertaining us at the same time. I’ve sent along an adoption photo of our Abbie, a Jack Russell terrier mix, who is very sweet, but also as cheeky as this photo would suggest.” (Do you have a canine to share with the pack? Email me: [email protected]).

113 comments ↓

#1 Ignoring all the stay at home CRAPOLA on 05.12.21 at 1:09 pm

Once again we are looking at permanent Economic lockdowns. Of course our elite UN-handpicked rulers will be heading to their cottages and yachts this long weekend. Roaring with laughter at gus…

Ontario’s top health official says daily case counts would have to be ‘well below’ 1,000 to lift stay-at-home order | CP24 (beta.cp24.com)

You have been had…it’s a BIG S C A M AND IT WAS FROM THE START!!!

Manitoba Chief Microbiologist and Laboratory Specialist: 56% of positive “cases” are not infectious. Epidemic of BS…

I miss Canada. Our country is unrecognizable right now. The tragic part is that some Canadians still haven’t woken up to the realization that it never had to be this way. Governments are knowingly inflicting horrific harms with unscientific/unconstitutional lockdowns/restrictions

#2 Doug t on 05.12.21 at 1:10 pm

that is one cute pooch

#3 Chameleon on 05.12.21 at 1:35 pm

Only a human would think they could improve an animal with an outfit. It’s really disturbing for us other animals to see this done to furries. We, chameleons figured out what to do to make humans knock it off but other animals can’t do our awesome trick.

Since I speak dog a bit here is what Abbie is saying in this photo: “Take this pseudo-vest off me and scoop my next poop with it!”

#4 Adrian Berger on 05.12.21 at 1:35 pm

Election and dethroning Trudeau is my hope for 2021…
At least one positive thing in the simulation.

#5 Brian Ripley on 05.12.21 at 1:38 pm

My 6 big city SF detached chart is up with April data:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

So is my Fantasy Plunge-O-Meter: http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

Recall that last month (March data) all of the 6 biggest cities in Canada bulled their way to new high price peaks… in April, 2 cities fell off the list and 4 pressed higher as buyers traded irrational exuberance for commodities formed in the shape of a dwelling.

Easier than digging a hole in the ground I guess.

A seasonal trend change could be arriving a bit earlier this year.

#6 Rainman on 05.12.21 at 1:55 pm

We are currently trying to sell our house, but now wonder if that is a smart thing to do? With inflation it probably makes sense to keep? Having doubts….

Looks like peak house to me. – Garth

#7 Gen Z on 05.12.21 at 1:58 pm

CBs are mandated to preserve the value of currencies

The Bank of Canada doesn’t believe their CPI calculation when inflation is high.

#8 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 2:00 pm

Would love to hear how Work Life balance is a myth. I WFH, have for 15 years, in an org that has 1K plus WFH employee’s (pre pandemic, we have 3x that today).

Picking up kids from school, seeing them off in the morning, these are things that make life better, assuming you like your kids. The balance part it, work needs to be done earlier / later. You have 10 hours a day that needs to be delivered. Spending those 10 in a cubicle + 90 minutes commuting may be the pinnacle for some, but sounds like a nightmare to me.

And WFH has been growing at double digits YOY for a while now. Of course CS. government and other client facing roles are going back to the office. But there is no evidence WFH employees will “run the risk of being more easily replaced, offered reduced compensation and blowing career advancement “. I’d argue it is the opposite – a WFH employee can always take an office based job, but I would be hesitant hiring an office based employee for their first WFH job.

I do get where you are going with this, but you seem to have a blind spot when it comes to managing WFH employees. The tech is in place to see your people in real time, track exactly what they are doing, etc. The idea that you have to physically be able to see a person to measure productivity in 2021 is pretty old school, at my fingertip I can tell you everything my 40 employees, spread out over NA, did today and I can get them on video in a few minutes notice.

You must work for an org that does not much care so much about corporate culture, collaboration or group creativity. Sounds soul-sucking and lonely. Besides, driving in commuter traffic helps build survival skills. – Garth

#9 TurnerNation on 05.12.21 at 2:05 pm

Let’s look at trends. If you wished further to hurt small business why not scare away their employees?
Easier to sit on the CERB, UBI than this. Employees must submit to the system and get your Mark of health. Twice weekly.
(Recipe owns most chains you know of: https://www.recipefranchising.com )

“Today, with the support of Health Canada and the Ministry of Health for the Province of Ontario, Recipe Unlimited Corp. will begin offering antigen rapid tests across restaurants in Ontario. Beginning May 3, 2021, frontline teammates at participating locations will be tested twice per week, with the intention of rolling out testing nationally as similar programs are established in other provinces across the country.

…..
…..
Travel rights are long gone. THIS was the main goal all along. Took one year. Why would tourists come here behind the new Belin Wall – anyway? Wouldn’t it be nice if all employees and travellers were given instead testing for early detection of Cancer? Naw.

.Ontario should increase hotel quarantine length when COVID-19 cases decline, health official says (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

.Canada must create a comprehensive quarantine, screening system for international travellers: experts (theglobeandmail.com)


— But, why? Why crash the old system?

https://www.economist.com › leaders › 2021/05/08 › th…
4 days ago — These “govcoins” are a new incarnation of money. They promise to make finance work better but also to shift power from individuals to the state, …

#10 safe money? on 05.12.21 at 2:12 pm

CBs are mandated to preserve the value of currencies, and adjusting the cost of money is a central tool in doing so.
________________________________

that’s a joke right. we’re had perpetual inflation since the creation of central banks. the value of money has declined .. period. there is no preservation of purchasing power.

Inflation is not CPI. CPI is only a small measure for some prices in the economy. prices have gone up for everything.

good luck to those who own bonds and stocks. there’s a big revaluation coming.

#11 Ballingsford on 05.12.21 at 2:14 pm

Do you really think inflation could triple? That wouldn’t be good for anyone.

#12 4% inflation on 05.12.21 at 2:16 pm

If Canadians want to work from home, then what is not stopping employers from hiring educated workers in developing countries?

There are many educated Latinos, Asians and Africans who speak English well, and they are a great fit. Why pay a Canadian $35/hr to work from home on a vacation resort, while you can hire a local for $5/hr and they will live like the middle class?

Or does Canada only entice educated foreigners to migrate to Toronto to live in the Hades of the world?

#13 jimmy zhao on 05.12.21 at 2:20 pm

In my opinion, a way to reduce vaccine hesitancy would be to start a rumour that one of the side effects of vaccines is increased penis size in men, and reduced waist sizes in women.

#14 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 2:25 pm

You must work for an org that does not much care so much about corporate culture, collaboration or group creativity. Sounds soul-sucking and lonely. Besides, driving in commuter traffic helps build survival skills. – Garth

—————————————————————-
Corp culture isn’t built in a cubicle, or by watching employees come and go.

Our culture is one of trust (but verify) and we are recognized as one of the most ethical employers in our segment in the world. In a non pandemic year we utilize healthy travel budgets to get face time with our teams and partners.

I suspect your thoughts on WFH have more to do with compliance then creativity.

Are you ‘working’ right now? – Garth

#15 R on 05.12.21 at 2:27 pm

Liz Chaney was voted out as the leader of the GOP. It is now a full bore Donald Trump party . Power vs truth ? Power won!

#16 Fact Checker on 05.12.21 at 2:29 pm

The Third Wave was a brutal surprise, fueled by variants we couldn’t even imagine eight months ago.

——-

Garth, I have to take issue with these statements in today’s blog.

Third wave was predicted by many, including on this blog. Therefore, it cannot be declared a surprise by any means.

Also, coronaviruses mutate, it is why a successful vaccine has never been developed for a coronavirus like common colds. This latest effort shows clearly what a challenge it is to hit a moving target like a coronavirus. Therefore, it shouldn’t be declared that we couldn’t imagine Covid-19 V1.2 V1.2, V1.3, V2.0, etc. To pretend mutation and refinement is not what coronaviruses do is…well…worse than denying vaccines efficacy.

You want reasons to be outraged at the third wave? How about these damn planes that keep flying and spreading the variants around? They’re not spreading as an email attachments after all.

Also, how about governments straight-up neglecting the risk? I have a notebook. I take notes. You think I forget that they started telling us about variants near end of December 2020, and shortly after it was revealed that they (governments) were aware of the variants in SEPTEMBER?! …and they let the planes keep flying!

#17 Prince Polo on 05.12.21 at 2:30 pm

A few days late to the Deferred Sales Charge party, but here’s my embarrassing tale: enamoured with Mutual Funds a while back. However, it wasn’t until I read the fine print that I realized that I’d been duped! Some of them actually allow 10% to be withdrawn annually for no penalty, so I did that for a couple years and then ripped the entire band-aid off. What an expensive lesson to learn…

#18 safe money? on 05.12.21 at 2:32 pm

#9 Ballingsford on 05.12.21 at 2:14 pm

Do you really think inflation could triple? That wouldn’t be good for anyone.
_____________________________________

its’ great for government. they steal your money faster with inflation. its’ what they want.

central banks are nothing but criminals operating on behalf of incompetent governments.

you can’t print $8-10 Trillion in the space of a year and end up with no consequences.

look at pensioners. they get a cost of living increase. but guess what. that increase is far less than the actual rise in prices.

look at bond holders. inflation in the US hit 4.2% but 10 year rates are 1.6%… who eats that difference? of course the person lending the government money.

just wait until the bond vigilantes show up and sell those bonds. Powell will have to start printing ever more money

the economy is going to suffer a shock for all the money printing seen this last year and last decade

#19 Dolce Vita on 05.12.21 at 2:32 pm

CANADA will come back like gangbusters.

I agree Garth, it’s temporary. Fall and if lots of J&J single jab vax to Canada, a whole lot sooner.

Today’s European Union forecast for 2021 to 2022 looking rosy. I expect it will for Canada as well.

EU Overall GDP growth of 4.2% 2021, 4.4% 2022

2021, 2022 GDP Growth Map by Country
https://twitter.com/EU_Social/status/1392406043444002820

Inflation expected to subside net year:
https://twitter.com/ecfin/status/1392400549870555137

Heck even Italia expected to do well:
-Same GDP growth rate as the EU overall
-Public debt to drop from 159.8% 2021 to 156.6% by 2022 (hey, for Italia that’s great)
-Deficit as a % of GDP to drop from 11.7% 2021 to 5.8% in 2022
———-

Above by the EU Commission for the Economy. #ECForecast

Reads a lot like what Garth wrote about today. A LOT.

#20 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.12.21 at 2:34 pm

#8 safe money? on 05.12.21 at 2:12 pm
CBs are mandated to preserve the value of currencies, and adjusting the cost of money is a central tool in doing so.
________________________________
《》

Inflation is not CPI. CPI is only a small measure for some prices in the economy. prices have gone up for everything.

good luck to those who own bonds and stocks. there’s a big revaluation coming.
======
While I agree on CPI why do you think the second ?
Having any assets during inflation protects. Stocks are pretty obvious as private sector is really good at pricing so no issues there and I would think corporate bonds in the Western world(non China though they are cracking down on ghost companies there as well) are fairly safe.
Government Bonds might warrant a further discussion though likely you can adjust and rebalance, besides IMHO bonds are rally there to maintain value or go up when the stocks go down for rebalancing purposes.
I think only of you hoard cash in your savings account ( the new under the mattress equivalent) or GIC’s you would be toast.

#21 VGRO and chill on 05.12.21 at 2:44 pm

I filled up my civic but did not get the explanation for why I did it, promised in yesterday’s post?!

(I’m assuming Line 5 / Colonial hack stuff, but am always curious to hear Garth’s take)

#22 Faron on 05.12.21 at 2:45 pm

Good steady words today Garth. Much needed as the markets throw a bit of a fit as they adjust to higher rates and the CPI print. Note that the TSX is doing relatively well given the higher weighting in things that benefit from higher rates and inflation.

Getting my AZ today. May take an asprin just in case. But, overall looking to get to and move past this milestone toward normalcy. If I die, I’ll let everyone know and will look forward to spooking over to Calgary to haunt The Jaguar :-).

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.21 at 2:57 pm

#11 jimmy zhao on 05.12.21 at 2:20 pm
In my opinion, a way to reduce vaccine hesitancy would be to start a rumour that one of the side effects of vaccines is increased penis size in men, and reduced waist sizes in women.
——————
Well, why don’t you start the rumor.
And then report back if it works.
Please provide before and after photos.

#24 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 2:59 pm

#12 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 2:25 pm
You must work for an org that does not much care so much about corporate culture, collaboration or group creativity. Sounds soul-sucking and lonely. Besides, driving in commuter traffic helps build survival skills. – Garth

—————————————————————-
Corp culture isn’t built in a cubicle, or by watching employees come and go.

Our culture is one of trust (but verify) and we are recognized as one of the most ethical employers in our segment in the world. In a non pandemic year we utilize healthy travel budgets to get face time with our teams and partners.

I suspect your thoughts on WFH have more to do with compliance then creativity.

Are you ‘working’ right now? – Garth

————————————————————-
Wow, nice gotcha in 2021. Employee caught on internet, scandalous.

My expectation of my team is that they get all of their work done each day. Couldn’t care less if that means having lunch with their kid, going for a walk with the dog at 10:30, taking their mom to Chiro at 2pm, or posting on a blog once or twice a month. I don’t worry too much about these things, and our company culture explicitly supports that flexibility. We have the means to measure productivity that don’t involve staring at them working in a cubicle.

Can’t imagine working for an employer that is so rigid that those things are not allowed. Sounds, as you would say, ‘soul sucking and lonely’.

#25 Dolce Vita on 05.12.21 at 3:04 pm

Wanted to wait BUT today an exceptional day for vax.

Canada received this many doses in ONE DAY:

1.81M

May 10-16 Gov Canada projection = 2M. 85% recv’d w/5 days to go. 88% of all vax to Canada has come from the EU.

7-day average jabs/day up again, from 300K a few days ago:

322,379

At the above rate, all 32M Beaves vax’d by:

Oct 5, 2021

I advocated before Prov started doing it was single jab all, then double jab later – some immunity better than no immunity. Well, they’re doing it. As of today, ratio of single to double jabs:

9:1

Even late to diner, slow on the uptake Dr. Trudeau advocated for that today.

——————-

DREAM Time, if from today onwards exclusively J&J single dose vax used, 32M done by:

Jun 28, 2021

Wouldn’t that be something. For that to happen, Canada needs all of 15.1M doses of J&J.

You’ll be on the mend Canada before you know it.

#26 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 3:10 pm

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.12.21 at 2:32 pm

CANADA will come back like gangbusters.

———

You bet, when the panic subsides, all of Texas’s Canadian oil companies can get gangbusting!

By the way, it might be worth taking your Novavax profits if there are any left to be taken. Its 50% drop in the last 10 days has been breathtaking. Bad news following bad news.

#27 Guelph Guru on 05.12.21 at 3:22 pm

“FOMO, but we’ve hit a wall”

In Guelph, the pre pandemic avg family income would be around 90k. A decent SFH is presently 1M+. More than 10x the avg family pre pandemic income.
Still selling in a day or 2 with multiple bids and above asking.
Haven’t hit a wall yet in Guelph.
It seems that these super prices may never correct.
It’s different this time. Or is it my recency bias?

#28 Kurt on 05.12.21 at 3:27 pm

Garth:

“You must work for an org that does not much care so much about corporate culture, collaboration or group creativity. Sounds soul-sucking and lonely. Besides, driving in commuter traffic helps build survival skills. – Garth”

Linus Torvalds runs the Linux kernel development program from a closet in his house in Australia. The kernel has been developed this way since the early 1990’s. It is a global collaborative effort with virtually all of the management and communication done remotely. Estimated value of the kernel is 300 million US dollars. The linux kernel and core libraries form the operating system of virtually all of the servers that we call the “Internet”, and a good deal of the communications infrastructure that connects them.

There *are* work efforts for which WFH is not only feasible, but the best way to do the work. Just because you can’t imagine it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen all the time.

However, I do think more work has been taken home than should stay there. Some of it will stay, some of it won’t, but to blanket diss WFH when things like Linux exist is at best uninformed.

#29 Fact Checker on 05.12.21 at 3:29 pm

Look at all the variants!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_variants

And they’re all global now!

Wonder how that happened?

Did the wind blow it all around the world or airplanes?

#30 Damifino on 05.12.21 at 3:30 pm

If your job is purely the manipulation and maintenance of digital information on standard hardware platforms, then a case can be made for never leaving home.

Before I retired my job was in firmware. The firmware I wrote was tightly bound to the complex machinery it controled and carefully coordinated with the output of other electrical and mechanical engineers.

Although some firmware programming can be done at home, ongoing physical access to unique systems and those building them is critical to success.

I doesn’t matter how skilled a programmer you are, if you can’t show up on site where a million dollar prototype is coming to life in the center of a hubbub of activity, your overall usefulness diminishes.

Those “present” during the development of a useful piece of real world machinery will likely be invited to work on the next phase.

The guy nobody ever sees in the trenches will probably be forgotten or else assigned to the maintenance of legacy systems, until they become obsolete along with them.

#31 Big English on 05.12.21 at 3:31 pm

“Dogs everywhere will be devastated.”

It is the dogs I feel sorry for……maybe the government will provide a cheque in the mail to cover doggy day care?!

#32 wallflower on 05.12.21 at 3:31 pm

One edit/proofread criticism. The following should be a paragraph unto itself. Not tacked on to stupid human stuff paragraph.

Dogs everywhere will be devastated.

#33 Annek on 05.12.21 at 3:34 pm

#2 Adrian Berger on 05.12.21 at 1:35 pm
Election and dethroning Trudeau is my hope for 2021…
At least one positive thing in the simulation.
————
I would kiss the ground if T2 is dethroned.
However, it aint’t going to happen.
Too many Sheeple think he has done a great job.

#34 G on 05.12.21 at 3:40 pm

Yes once WFH is over, many of our loved pets will have separation issue will no one at home all day long.

re fill up the car from yesterday. Is that big USA pipe line open again? Maybe having all stuff totally automated and accessible remotely isn’t always the best way to go some times.

#35 JacqueShellacque on 05.12.21 at 3:45 pm

You can’t generalize about WFH, Garth. It’ll be industry and even company specific. Crisis times create changes, some of which can be predicted, most can’t. This last 15 months should be showing all of us that predictions and projections aren’t worth a damn. It’s your blog and I’m not trying to be disrepectful, but let’s be real here, the age of prognostication is over. Should we trust experts who tell us we can’t get a haircut but will allow us to fly to the other side of the world so long as we’re willing to get a deadly virus injected into us? That seems backwards – we shouldn’t be prisoners of our homes in order to keep creaky, overoptimized systems (barely) functional. This virus has shown our entire “efficiently designed’ society – just-in-time inventory management, debt-fuelled ‘growth’, centralized bureaucratic systems, international people and goods flows – propagates and even magnifies trouble. What needs to happen is that instead of predicting and projecting the costs of these things or what will happen 6 months or a year from now, we avoid them, common-sense style: don’t let contagians (viral, economic, social) propagate.

#36 bguy1 on 05.12.21 at 3:51 pm

@Mattl

“Our culture is one of trust (but verify)”

“The idea that you have to physically be able to see a person to measure productivity in 2021 is pretty old school, at my fingertip I can tell you everything my 40 employees, spread out over NA, did today and I can get them on video in a few minutes notice.”

On the one hand you trust them, on the other hand you know everything they did? Because they are monitored? If yes, why would they be monitored if you trust them?

Sounds oppressive. What’s the employee turnover?

#37 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 3:52 pm

The free advice on this blog continues to deliver as preferreds pump and bonds bomb.

Pref ETFs 30-40% capital appreciation plus 5-6% divvie in last 52 weeks. Not bad… not bad at all…

#38 binky barnes on 05.12.21 at 4:13 pm

I have declared April 1, 2022, the first ever Justin Trudeau Day. This is, of course, ‘unofficial’, but I propose that Canadians gather on front lawns, backyard decks, condo balconies, and the like, and collectively hoist a glass in tribute to the PM PM.

BB

#39 S.Bby on 05.12.21 at 4:18 pm

Many working Canadians enduring a ‘COVID Tax’ through the pandemic

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/05/12/canadians-covid-tax-pandemic-work-stress/

WFH: more hours, more stress, less engagement, but more productivity.

#40 safe money? on 05.12.21 at 4:28 pm

#20 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.12.21 at 2:34 pm
While I agree on CPI why do you think the second ?
Having any assets during inflation protects.
_____________________________________________

the question becomes what assets, and how high an inflation rate are we going to allow before tightening the screws… will they wait till CPI sticks to 4% for a year, and be forced to raise Fed Funds to 5%? or wait for 5% CPI and raise Fed Funds to 6%?

if the market sells off government bonds, and 10 year rates are at 4-5% you think corporate bonds are safe? they won’t sell off in tandem? a large percentage of companies are zombie companies and wouldn’t survive if it wasn’t for FED money printing and zero interest rates. they would fail.

stocks are “ok” as assets, but you’ll have to be more picky. you remember what happened in the 70’s to stocks? wasn’t a good time for the SP500 (or the DAX). but look at the Nikkei/TSX/Hang Seng

you might be better off with commodity countries, Canada/Australia, some emerging markets. Companies with assets in the ground that rise in value (think base miners, fertilizers etc).

the general market, the teck stocks, will not do will with 4-5% inflation.. especially when the Fed will have to raise rates aggressively

you’re also probably better off at looking at collectibles. you should see the kind of prices rises in all types during the last 6 months. i’ve seen 200-500% increases in things i hold. literally in the last 6 months.

your last statement is correct. holding cash is a disaster. GIC’s disaster. money in the bank, disaster.

rate reset prefs, yes. would have been a better time to buy them last year, but hey, there’s still bargains out there, especially if you expect rates to rise over the next few years.

i wouldn’t touch a bond with a 10 foot pole. no thanks.

#41 Wuhan we got y'all in check on 05.12.21 at 4:29 pm

got this from HR the other day – looks ominous

Subject: FW: Permanent WFH-ers

Hi Team,

The OM team are looking to understand the permanent or long term WFH arrangements, globally.

Can you please complete the attached spreadsheet for your office to include anyone who is permanently remote or has a long term / open ended WFH arrangement.

Any questions, please let me know.

Many thanks
Ashleigh

#42 S.O on 05.12.21 at 4:36 pm

WFH people are going too loose their jobs to foreigners, some companies have already started doing that in the US. Apparently they have been posting wanted ads in the US to show that they are looking for workers, but at the same time their also looking for cheeper labour in India. JP Morgan wants everyone back because they have stated that they lost money to competitors who had their worker back in the office. Were in some really weird and confusing times, good luck out there.

#43 Jake on 05.12.21 at 4:36 pm

Good time to buy some cheap REITS, they are still on sale. My daughter (in her 20’s) tells me she and her friends can’t wait to get back to the mall to shop. They are tired of buying online and even worse the hassle of returning. Her boyfriend though thinks no one will ever visit a mall again. I think the women know better.

#44 Faron on 05.12.21 at 4:39 pm

#26 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 3:10 pm

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.12.21 at 2:32 pm

By the way, it might be worth taking your Novavax profits if there are any left to be taken

Hah, I seem to recall you throwing shade on sell reccomendations. You buying the TSLA “dip”? I can’t see any reason the stock would drop any lower…

#45 DOnme on 05.12.21 at 4:44 pm

There should be a global holiday (4-day long-weekend) marking the end of Covid. What a great way to help the travel, tourism, and F&B get back on their feet.

#46 Yuus bin Haad on 05.12.21 at 4:51 pm

Who’s for doubling down on the Stagflation bet?

#47 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.12.21 at 4:53 pm

Inflation, but not hyper.

Higher rates, but not fast.

Herd immunity, but slowly

Reopening, but all year.

FOMO, but we’ve hit a wall

WFH, but not much longer

*******************

Hey, you forgot one, Garth!

TORONTO AND THE MAKE BELIEVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AWFUL!!!!!!

GOOOooooooo (AWAY) RAPTORS – GONE FOR 2021!!!!!!

#48 Another Deckchair on 05.12.21 at 5:00 pm

Hey @28 Kurt;

You ever met Linus? I have – sometimes it’s better for someone to stay home! Now FvK (where is he now??) was a great guy; when I met him he was living at home with his parents; when I walked in, his parents wondered, as I was about 30 and Fred was about 16 so I was not the usual kid walking into their house…

#49 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 5:02 pm

#44 Faron on 05.12.21 at 4:39 pm
#26 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 3:10 pm

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.12.21 at 2:32 pm

By the way, it might be worth taking your Novavax profits if there are any left to be taken

———

Hah, I seem to recall you throwing shade on sell reccomendations. You buying the TSLA “dip”? I can’t see any reason the stock would drop any lower…

———

Fair enough.

I last bought TSLA at 604 in March and will stick with that for now. Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

#50 The West on 05.12.21 at 5:10 pm

#46 Yuus bin Haad on 05.12.21 at 4:51 pm

Who’s for doubling down on the Stagflation bet?

re: It’s baked into the cake.

#51 Chimingin on 05.12.21 at 5:11 pm

#24-Mattl – You talk about office-based workers and compliance, but I’d prefer being in an office to your creepy remote spying system on those WFH and demanding their availability in a matter of moments. Talk about soul-sucking and lonely. Where are the boundaries??

And yet so many of you commenters on this blog, presumably male and definitely arrogant, think you have it all figured out. Gah.

#52 Millennial Realist on 05.12.21 at 5:12 pm

“Too bad. It’s over soon. WFH works for some employers, of course, but not for most”

Paleo Boomers can be so cute!

Completely off-the-rails, out of touch comment, Garth.

You really don’t know what’s coming, do you?

Boomers, be part of the change.

Or be run over by it.

We are taking over. Get ready.

#53 Wait There on 05.12.21 at 5:15 pm

Inflation might be transitory but whatever price hikes have increased up to 25% will be remaining there.
I see the less well to do suffering the most here! The increases as a % of disposable income will be horrid. Those leveraged up the wazoo for a home are in for a shock.

#54 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 5:21 pm

#36 bguy1 on 05.12.21 at 3:51 pm
@Mattl

“Our culture is one of trust (but verify)”

“The idea that you have to physically be able to see a person to measure productivity in 2021 is pretty old school, at my fingertip I can tell you everything my 40 employees, spread out over NA, did today and I can get them on video in a few minutes notice.”

On the one hand you trust them, on the other hand you know everything they did? Because they are monitored? If yes, why would they be monitored if you trust them?

Sounds oppressive. What’s the employee turnover?

———————————————————–

I said that I CAN see what they are doing in real time. That is the verify part. How is that oppressive? We manage to activity, productivity, and results. That doesn’t mean I’m hovering over them, any more then an office manager would stand at his employees desk and watch them work.

Turnover is low – probably too low TBH. Average tenure on my team is probably 8-10 years and I have 3 of my 40 over 15, one at 20. You can actually start and retire with this company….we aren’t perfect but it is a very good place to work and is recognized in the industry as such.

Listen, we have lots of office based staff and will continue to have office based staff. Most folks that weren’t WFH will go back, for good reason. Personally, I actually like going into an office 30-50 days a year. I’m simply pushing back on the idea that WFH can’t be managed properly, that WFH can’t be productive, etc. It can, and lots of us are doing it, and the growth in WFH pre pandemic tells that story better then I can.

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.21 at 5:21 pm

My guess is the workers who WFH pre-pandemic will keep working from home post-pandemic.
Everyone else will be back.
Initially, productivity will decline as everybody will mill around the water cooler, catching up with missed gossip.

#56 BobinKits on 05.12.21 at 5:22 pm

Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

********************

Not according to Rolling Stone and others

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/snl-elon-musk-review-1167161/

#57 Northshore guy on 05.12.21 at 5:27 pm

So many extreme views on wfh. I work in tech, wfh will end, there is no if but when.
Before covid it was normal for us to wfh once a week with approval. It didn’t kill productivity. It helped greatly to not commute on wednesdays and recharge.
Post covid that might change into wfh for 2 or 3 days a week. Worst case it goes back to 1 day wfh per week, same as before. But this is tech industry, other industries may go back to full time availability.
I understand why this is popular with people under 40 like me, because of kids. It makes life more easy. But once kids turn 10, no need to be at home and so wfh is not popular above 40. I am enjoying wfh now but won’t when my kids are 10.
See there is common ground to everything.
But if you bought in chilliwack, God help you.

#58 Michael in-north-york on 05.12.21 at 5:31 pm

#46 Yuus bin Haad
Who’s for doubling down on the Stagflation bet?

===
Me. Can’t see it ending any other way. My view is based on both the personal experience, years ago and in another country, and on knowing the history.

A perpetual motion machine can’t exist. The government can’t forever pretend its handouts are matched with assets when they aren’t matched.

The fiscal system will change in a way that restores the balance. Can the government manage that process? In theory, yes, but it is over-committed on both sides. The expenses can’t be cut because the recipients depend on the handouts. The general tax rates cannot be hiked because the taxpayers depend on those rates not being too high, and would respond with downsizing their business or shifting it away.

The government will hike its tax compliance efforts, and pursue some exotic taxes. That will bring in some extra revenue, but not nearly enough to restore the balance.

The only practical solution is to trim the value of accumulated debt by deflating the currency. The CB can’t prevent that, it can either accept the inevitable and let it happen in a partly controlled manner, or resist to the end and lose anyway.

#59 Mattl on 05.12.21 at 5:50 pm

#51 Chimingin on 05.12.21 at 5:11 pm
#24-Mattl – You talk about office-based workers and compliance, but I’d prefer being in an office to your creepy remote spying system on those WFH and demanding their availability in a matter of moments. Talk about soul-sucking and lonely. Where are the boundaries??

And yet so many of you commenters on this blog, presumably male and definitely arrogant, think you have it all figured out. Gah.

————————————————————-

LOL spying. Do you have employees, and if so how do you track activity and productivity? By what time they show up at the office and if they are at their desk? Is your system “hey I can see Bob, therefore Bob is productive”?

We track activity via a CRM. When an employee has an important interaction with a customer, they take 15 seconds to log it. That log provides us with a digital record of how that customer is being managed, and what our teams are working on. Our teams use those same logs to manage long term relationships with said partners. It’s pretty basic stuff, hardly a human rights violation.

And of course you’d prefer being in an office. You can burn 30 minutes a day looking serious talking to Carl about nothing important, take 3 fifteen minutes dumps on the third floor, drag your lunch out for 70 minutes, peel out 15 minutes early with no expectation that days work is completed, and when your boss comes around you close TSN and have an XLS ready to go. But, as long as you are in seat for 7.5 a day you have met expectations.

#60 S.Bby on 05.12.21 at 6:08 pm

Mattl

get back to work and stop goofing off.

#61 BillyBob on 05.12.21 at 6:10 pm

#56 BobinKits on 05.12.21 at 5:22 pm
Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

********************

Not according to Rolling Stone and others

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/snl-elon-musk-review-1167161/

—————————————————–

I’m assuming Sail’s comment was ironic. Musk was just…bad. Train-wrecking, skill-crawlingly unfunny.

(To be fair, that describes SNL for many years now.)

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/may/09/saturday-night-live-elon-musk

#62 Felix on 05.12.21 at 6:14 pm

Dogs everywhere will be devastated.
_____________________________

Best news I’ve ever read on this blog.

Bless you and your prophecies, Mr. Turner.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.21 at 6:14 pm

#56 BobinKits on 05.12.21 at 5:22 pm
Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

********************

Not according to Rolling Stone and others

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/snl-elon-musk-review-1167161/
————-
I think the good ol USA is in trouble when its Captains of industry are becoming Circus Clowns.
There was some talk about Clown cars the other day.
How many clowns can you fit into a TESLA?

#64 Reximus on 05.12.21 at 6:24 pm

home depot informal price observation: lumber/plywood through the roof like +300%; fasteners up like 50% (!); drywall up 10% but you can find deals; paint no change, but no sales these days; tools arent more but there’s fewer deals than usual

#65 greyhound on 05.12.21 at 6:30 pm

It’s historically been pretty difficult to make any money betting on Armageddon.

#66 Sail Away on 05.12.21 at 6:45 pm

#56 BobinKits on 05.12.21 at 5:22 pm

Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

********************

Not according to Rolling Stone and others

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/snl-elon-musk-review-1167161/

———

I see your media, check with my media:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/morgansloss1/snl-pete-davidson-elon-musk-miley-cyrus-spacex

…and raise with an additional media:

https://hiddenremote.com/2021/05/09/elon-musk-saturday-night-live-best-worst-sketches/

Looks like Elon was funny after all.

#67 the Jaguar on 05.12.21 at 6:50 pm

Re: #22 Faron on 05.12.21 at 2:45 pm

” If I die, I’ll let everyone know and will look forward to spooking over to Calgary to haunt The Jaguar :-).”

Well at least he’s finally fessed up to it.
In a way I understand the obsession. Some days there just isn’t enough of me to go around.

#68 Reximus on 05.12.21 at 6:51 pm

for a non-comic, elon was pretty good i thought, even his mom had comic timing

#69 Concerned Citizen on 05.12.21 at 7:02 pm

#13 jimmy zhao on 05.12.21 at 2:20 pm
In my opinion, a way to reduce vaccine hesitancy would be to start a rumour that one of the side effects of vaccines is increased penis size in men, and reduced waist sizes in women.

__________

Which vaccine are we talking about here? And do more doses translate into more… ahem… inflation? Asking for a friend.

#70 Sunny Daze on 05.12.21 at 7:03 pm

My food bill hasn’t changed much. Avocados have gone down and they are giving away some veggies. Meat up as per normal inflation it seems.

Lumber might want the elevator down.

There is too much oil in the world and my gas price is pretty stable.

McDonald’s coupons today. 20 cent increase in the two can dine. That’s pretty par for the course. But the app has killer deals.

Costco flowers cheap and really nice this year.

If people want to pay ridiculous toilet paper frenzied prices that’s really up to them. And yes there are some shortages because of supply constraints for now. I think this is mostly just trader talk. Things also seem a little slower to me now also. Just my take.

#71 Nonplused on 05.12.21 at 7:07 pm

What about the teaser from yesterday?

“Oh, and gas the car. More on that tomorrow.”

Does that just fit in under “inflation”. I can’t really fit enough gas in the car to offer much of a hedge there.

Really crazy what is going on in the South East though. The media managed to turn a future potential gas shortage into a real present one a day or two ago, in about 5 hours. Lots of gas at noon, none by 5pm, huge lineups.

Kind of reminds me of the great toilet paper panic.

———————————–

Speaking of panics, The Alberta government opened online booking for anyone 12 years and over for the vax on Monday at 8 am. By the time I got through the queue, all the appointments were gone. Somehow or another we’ve turned this thing into something like a U2 concert. Oh well I was able to get a pharmacy booking, but it is some weeks out and dependent on availability of vaxxes. (I waited until Monday to book because I have a 15 year old son and thought we may as well all go together. Well so, apparently, did everyone else.)

—————————————

Looks like everyone and their dog is opposing Governor Grinch’s plan for line 5:

https://boereport.com/2021/05/12/enbridge-federal-court-case-receives-broad-support-from-government-business-and-labour-from-michigan-canada-and-throughout-the-region/

There may be a few greenies out there who figure everyone can get along fine on electric scooters, but in this case even the unions are agreeing with business. How often does that happen?

————————————

Gardening tip: Put out those wasp traps this weekend if you haven’t already. Every queen you catch early in the season is one less nest to worry about later. Commercial traps do not catch bees because bees aren’t attracted to the bait.

#72 Nonplused on 05.12.21 at 7:14 pm

#12 4% inflation on 05.12.21 at 2:16 pm
If Canadians want to work from home, then what is not stopping employers from hiring educated workers in developing countries?

———————————–

There aren’t as many of those “educated workers in developing countries” as one would hope.

Also network reliability figures in.

WFH and WFW staff are equally likely to be outsource where resources are available off shore. Just ask the US manufacturing sector.

#73 the Jaguar on 05.12.21 at 7:15 pm

FOMO, but we’ve hit a wall – GT

Consulting the tea leaves, I would agree the ‘gasbag’ areas of GTA/GVA are indeed hitting a wall. ‘Bang for Buck’ is finally reaching even the most gullible eyes and ears. They have made their bed and will be lying in it for quite a while. Looks good on them.

Now the ‘bid over ask’ frenzy has moved to the nether regions. Nova Scotia, PEI and the like. Why? Cashing out, for sure. Or maybe the flood lights were turned on when people got their whole world turned upside down, and they become prisoners in their own homes.
Affords one an opportunity to examine everyday lives and ask those uncomfortable questions. Inconvenient truths show up dressed as chickens just like Malcolm X said they would.

Rise up, Boomers! Vote with your feet! Retreat to the quiet countryside where there are less monsters roaming the landscape. Leave the keys on the table for Millennial Realist with no forwarding address.

Dharma Bum, you may as well just admit you like it out here in Alberta. Get the other kid in Ottawa to move here too, before it’s too late……..amen

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.21 at 7:16 pm

Millennial Delusionist
“Boomers, be part of the change.”

++++

If “the change” involves endless, tax crushing deficits, inflation, unemployment, unaffordable housing, and learning all the WOKE acronyms……

You can have it.

#75 espressobob on 05.12.21 at 7:30 pm

Emotions are what WE do–Mr.Market knows this. Does exuberance or panic dictate causation?

If this is the case, then I’m doing the opposite.

This practice has worked out well for many years without the use of a crystal ball; actually, mine was defective in the first place…

#76 Bdwy on 05.12.21 at 7:31 pm

Is that called a musk fusk?

Tsla saya no to btc payments. Pretend coin looking thin.

#77 Leftover on 05.12.21 at 7:31 pm

#57 Northshore guy on 05.12.21 at 5:27 pm

“…But if you bought in chilliwack, God help you”

——————————————-

Ain’t that the truth. Can’t even get a good ol’ piece of pie at the airport anymore.

#78 Reximus on 05.12.21 at 7:31 pm

seems elon no longer accepts crypto for his cars…suckers

#79 Nonplused on 05.12.21 at 7:38 pm

#56 BobinKits on 05.12.21 at 5:22 pm
Elon’s SNL hosting was fantastic.

********************

Not according to Rolling Stone and others

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/tv-features/snl-elon-musk-review-1167161/

—————————————

In TV land, a show is evaluated by its’ ratings, and by this measure Musk was an absolute success for a show that hasn’t been relevant or successful in years.

Word is that many of the SNL cast said they were “triggered” by Musk appearing, but it turned out they had stage fright once they realized people would be watching.

As an actor, Musk lacked any sort of presence or delivery. But he isn’t an actor. As an awkward celebrity, he is certainly more well known than any of the current cast member, he did ok.

So his performance review will read “exceeded expectations” and he’ll get another billion in stock options.

#80 Flop... on 05.12.21 at 7:39 pm

About a month ago a contractor I was working for went into a defensive position after Covid wrecked a couple of agreed work contacts.

I called a few other contractors, they said they would line something up for me , which one of them did, but in the meantime waiting I totally lost my mind and applied for a job with the government.

Had kind of forgotten about it, but now that I’ve got lots of work they want to interview me for the position.

Typical government, always messing with the little guy.

There are apparently going to be 3 other people at the interview, I will probably bomb, can’t even remember the last time I had a serious one, 2002, maybe?

I have visions of the 3 of them standing over me and laughing that they only brought me in to see what type of barbarian nowadays doesn’t use pronouns after their name.

All I can tell you is he/him is shit scared…

M46BC

#81 cuke and tomato pickere on 05.12.21 at 7:49 pm

Lets hope that Alberta starts to reduce its numbers .

#82 ogdoad on 05.12.21 at 7:49 pm

“Many of them seem to wander in here, seeking a clean washroom”.

LOL!! Many of whom turn quickly about with the realization that they don’t belong there!

Your are the stats master, Garth.

Og

#83 Habitt on 05.12.21 at 7:50 pm

52 mr Best chuckle I’ve had for a while. Like it’s never happened before. Lol What will you do then? There may not be anyone left to blame. What goes around….

#84 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.12.21 at 7:52 pm

#78 Reximus on 05.12.21 at 7:31 pm

seems elon no longer accepts crypto for his cars…suckers

——–

Buy the dip

#85 Linda on 05.12.21 at 8:11 pm

Will commodity prices moderate once the supply chain is restored? Yes, but likely not to previous levels. Meanwhile everyone is impatiently awaiting vaccine availability. Having pushed AZ to the masses the current supply chain issues with getting a second dose is not going to help get ‘the herd’ immunized. As for mixing vaccines, early indications suggest that doing so increases rather than decreases unfortunate side effects. Not going there, thanks anyway.

#86 DON on 05.12.21 at 8:22 pm

A year ago a politician would have been deemed nuts to lock down their boarders, but now with the variants on the run people are warming to the idea. What once was thought to be not likely is now plausible.

At the time of the Spanish flu air travel was not a factor. They relied on long boat voyages. They also had a fourth wave in the Fall/Winter, months after declaring the crisis was over. They were eager to get back at it, just like us.

Why India now and not before?

As for work from home, I agree with Mattl. It makes sense for certain job functions to do it on a full time basis. If you are professional you will do your job at home or in the office. People can waste a lot of time in an office enviromment with all the distractions etc. However, the issue of buying a home a long way from the office might be a bit premature, bold and consequential. Then again the work from home has worked in most cases and will be a consideration going forward.

Another thing we should rethink….critical infrasture not being hack prone. We need to be more proactive. That and we need a BOC Board of Citizens to over see government and have the poweres to engage recall.

#87 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.12.21 at 8:24 pm

@ #40 safe money? on 05.12.21 at 4:28 pm

Thank you for the inteligent, well thought out and detailed answer.
A rare occurrence on any blog so greatly appreciated.

#88 TurnerNation on 05.12.21 at 8:25 pm

TLT.US Bond ETF down today, people expecting the higher interest rates? Usually it moves inversely to the equities. Gulp.

— What have I been saying all along. This is about curtailing our Travel/Movement rights. (New Green Deal?)
Hey he said it not me:

.‘We wanted to limit mobility’: Doug Ford defends outdoor amenity closures despite science table advice (globalnews.ca)


– Facts This is the first virus in history that has globally spawned a slew of fines, prison e curfews and sanctions.
CV crimes, CV tickets, CV Curfews, CV Restrictions, CV Laws, CV fines; Police and Bylaw depts have dedicated CV Law crime units. CV denial; CV minimization are just a few of the new no-nos. Even the doctors aren’t immune.
https://theprovince.com/news/local-news/b-c-doctors-could-face-penalty-for-veering-from-covid-19-health-guidelines-college/wcm/a54a07bc-7311-453d-b2e6-3bea3cecde4a
B.C. doctors could face penalty for veering from COVID-19 health guidelines: College



— You got the memo here 6 months ago:

““#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.””

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.21 at 8:30 pm

Higher grocery prices.
Me no worry.
My strawberries and sugar snaps are started to ripen.
We got BokChoy and lettuce ready to go.
Raspberries in about a month, then cucumbers, beans and some early cherry tomatoes.
All organic

#90 Drill Baby Drill on 05.12.21 at 8:34 pm

“First World country” I must disagree. Canada has definitely dropped several pegs on that ladder. We have an incompetent leader, extremely indebted, useful idiots trying to bring down our energy economy, almost completely reliant on the USA for our economy and our military defence and most Canadians are completely unaware of the danger we are in.

#91 protea on 05.12.21 at 8:34 pm

4% inflation

If Canadians want to work from home, then what is not stopping employers from hiring educated workers in developing countries?

There are many educated Latinos, Asians and Africans who speak English well, and they are a great fit. Why pay a Canadian $35/hr to work from home on a vacation resort, while you can hire a local for $5/hr and they will live like the middle class?

Or does Canada only entice educated foreigners to migrate to Toronto to live in the Hades of the world?

My thoughts as well example 3 companies Manulife & Capital One & Telus (Credit Cards) in the past were exclusively customer service was in Canada. now they use Costa Rica, Phillipines and India where $5 hour no other benefits is decent money so WFH’S don’t wish for continuation that might eventually put you out of employment.

#92 espressobob on 05.12.21 at 8:39 pm

#85 Linda

You want my old discarded crystal ball? Not a bad deal, but the wheel fell off.

#93 Bdwy on 05.12.21 at 8:42 pm

Flop . #1 interview tip. 80/20. You talk 20. Other than that easy. Smile, eye contact, leave the jokes unless it a very sure thing.
Google the job a bit deeper than the other guy and have a good question or 3. Done.

#94 Flop... on 05.12.21 at 9:30 pm

#93 Bdwy on 05.12.21 at 8:42 pm
Flop . #1 interview tip. 80/20. You talk 20. Other than that easy. Smile, eye contact, leave the jokes unless it a very sure thing.
Google the job a bit deeper than the other guy and have a good question or 3. Done.

////////////////////////////

Hey Broadway, thanks for the tips.

Here’s my new plan.

I will tell them to phone Garth Turner to get a reference for what I have been up to the last few years.

That should go well.

Smile with my mask on?

I will try to smile with my eyes which will probably creep them out.

Jokes?

Have you seen my record on here the last 7 or 8 years?

Yeah, I probably won’t tell them at the interview that my blog buddy Nonplused lies in bed at night wondering if this is the big one or not…

M46BC

#95 Dave on 05.12.21 at 9:37 pm

Granted, there are exceptions but in many, many cases if you can work from home, some very capable dude in India can do your job for a fifth of the price. So why in the world would the boss keep you on?

#96 DON on 05.12.21 at 9:48 pm

@Flop

You might want to check out the orgs hiring process, they might also tell you what to expect in the interview…types of questions etc. Your wife might have an idea?

#97 Doug t on 05.12.21 at 10:08 pm

#90 drill baby

You are correct – CANADA slid into a coma over the last 30 years and NAFTA killed this country – we never recovered and have become sleepy inept sheep – Apathy is a drug and this country is addicted

#98 Two-thirds on 05.12.21 at 10:11 pm

Garth: ” Incomes are falling behind, and will be slow to grow”

According to Brian’s charts, using Stats Canada data, earnings are trending upwards, accelerating in fact, over the past year:

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings.html

Sure, recency could explain an expectation for this trend to continue, but how likely is it that the curve will bend downward, as opposed to continue its upward trajectory of the past 30 years?

Inflation of “double or triple” today’s level will without a doubt bring higher wages, and higher wages can compensate for increased mortgage interest costs (tripling a 1.7% rate taken out in 2020, is still a reasonable 5.1%, which seems to be pretty close to the stress test level. Still, how likely is that by 2025?)

Painful, yes, but not cataclysmic.

Besides, Canada’s moral-hazard-based policy will make sure that the indebted will receive transfers from those who have savings and assets, financial and otherwise.

In Canada, “The house always wins” (pun intended).

:(

#99 Faron on 05.12.21 at 10:27 pm

Net buying in the dark pools. Negative gamma with all the desperate put buying today. If SPX gets kicked positive could be a face melter tomorrow.

#100 Kurt on 05.12.21 at 10:27 pm

Hola #48 Another Deckchair on 05.12.21 at 5:00 pm!

Yeah, Linus can be a bit much. I’ve never met him, but his reputation, uh, precedes him.

I don’t recognize Fred vK – can you give me a hint.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.21 at 11:06 pm

@#80 Floppie

You’re in the prfect position.
You really dont need the job and the interview is a great training exercise.
No matter which way it goes.
Jot down a few notes on what they asked and how you answered and felt.
A great prep for the second interview.
One of the best interviews I went through was one I didnt even know was happening until I was offered the job I currently hold.
I had run into some old customers who sat down and started talking.
Asked me what I was working on and if I liked it. etc etc etc.
Next thing you know I was offer a very interesting job totally out of left field.
Sales and management with a bit of my previous work experience tossed in ….

I thought about it for about a week and said.
WTH.
My last shot (at my Boomer age) at something interesting and a new challenge.
I’m making 3 times my previous salary with performance bonuses and dividends( i’m now part owner of the company) tossed in.
Relax and Go for it.
The worst that can happen is….you get a govt job.
:)

#102 Rinse and Repeat on 05.12.21 at 11:25 pm

Prices hit a wall? Nah, its a breather at best as prices consolidate before the next leg up. Houses in BC burbs and stix are still selling within a day, 200-300k over. Still no financing or inspection conditions.

Still waiting for that mythical day when the phones stop ringing or realtors – like the day the earth stood still. Too bad it will never happen.

Now they have shown that close to 20% of Canadians own more than one house, with many owning 2-4. The boomer belief in bricks and mortar is fully entrenched as they have only seen their net worth go up exponentially in the last 20 years. Nothing like a country that eats its young to warm your heart with pride.

Sure seems like the domestic speculation that preceded the US bubble and its collapse. But the key difference – there are no teaser rates and NINJA loans here. So things will only continue to skyrocket.

It took less than a year for prices to swell anywhere from 40-100% in communities across the country. Its a unicorn’s dream that the prices will just stop, soften and

As we have said here many times, prices are sticky on the way down – if there is a down. If you don’t have a house now, you will be waiting many many years for any price moderation.

I bet there are a lot of pissed off doomers that thought that prices would go down during the pandemic. After all the CMHC predicted price drops, millions were on CERB, 1000s of businesses closed, mortgage deferrals were near a million, and delinquencies were rising. Boy, were they wrong.

It is false hope that anything will change anytime soon. Many more years of this as wages adjust to inflation, and homeowners have the continued ability to pay. Over 25% of our GDP is directly or indirectly tied to housing. Sorry folks, this ain’t the Big Short – its different this time! We are simply too big too fail. The new millennial moister decimating June 1 stress test rules will come and go without so much as a glance from the market.

#103 Don't Hold Your Breath on 05.12.21 at 11:33 pm

For those hoping and praying that the new ‘stricter’ June 1 stress test will make a change in the market, be aware that the new changes will reduce buying power by…..drum roll please….4%.

https://rates.ca/resources/update-pre-approvals-and-stress-test

Prices have gone up 40-100% in communities across Canada. The market quakes in the face of a 4% cut in buying power! Lol.

Oh Canada, another failed federal initiative in a long line of failed policies to temper the market over the past 10 years.

Believe in the strength of the market because your government sure does, and intends to keep it strong at all costs.

#104 R on 05.13.21 at 12:46 am

The irony of Elon Musk being on SNL is he got all the time exposure for Tesla ,and was paid. There were 5 EV wanna be manufacturers commercials funding the show.That was the genius of Elon’s appearance.

#105 Nonplused on 05.13.21 at 12:53 am

#94 Flop… on 05.12.21 at 9:30 pm
#93 Bdwy on 05.12.21 at 8:42 pm
Flop . #1 interview tip. 80/20. You talk 20. Other than that easy. Smile, eye contact, leave the jokes unless it a very sure thing.
Google the job a bit deeper than the other guy and have a good question or 3. Done.

////////////////////////////

Hey Broadway, thanks for the tips.

Here’s my new plan.

I will tell them to phone Garth Turner to get a reference for what I have been up to the last few years.

That should go well.

Smile with my mask on?

I will try to smile with my eyes which will probably creep them out.

Jokes?

Have you seen my record on here the last 7 or 8 years?

Yeah, I probably won’t tell them at the interview that my blog buddy Nonplused lies in bed at night wondering if this is the big one or not…

M46BC

———————————

None of that advice is going to work if it is a government job. Instead, practice woke ideology, millennial angst, intersectionality, and maybe familiarize yourself with critical race theory. Also they are “birthing people” and “lawnmowing people”. If they ask if you have children say “yes, one birther and one lawnmower” or something like that.

Oh and watch for some new questions going around I haven’t seen before like “what does inclusion in the workplace mean to you?”

And yes, I wouldn’t mention my “big one”. I can’t believe that joke came up again. It was only a little bit punny the first time.

On a serious note, the proposed 80/20 rule won’t work. If I was interviewing someone who was not forthcoming, detailed, and natural in their answers I would not hire them. I want to get to know them. It is not the time for them to get to know me. This isn’t a date.

#106 Franco on 05.13.21 at 7:01 am

I agree with you that working from home is only temporary. Employers are facing a lot of IT security issues with people working from home and just cannot see that Financial companies will leave things as is and other companies that need to protect their data.

#107 M on 05.13.21 at 7:10 am

– Garth, any comments on the S&P500 selloff?

Corrections are good. – Garth

#108 pPrasseur on 05.13.21 at 9:26 am

Canada has some of the “best” collective agreements in the world and WFH is now very popular with big unions, 20% of the work force is public sector, much of witch is eligible to WFH, so that’s that…

Inflation is a function of the money supply and is therefore unavoidable at this point, more so with the very inflationary policies (for example anti-oil, big spending, regulations, minimum wage, etc…) of the T2 and Biden administration

Hyperinflation is a function of investor behavior who are fleeing something, practically impossible in huge markets like the USD and Euros witch are too large to flee (nowhere else to go…) but possible in smaller markets, Canada is a smaller market, certainly one of the most vulnerable among developed countries because it is not part of a large block.

#109 Garter Snake on 05.13.21 at 10:20 am

If rates were raised Trudeau couldn’t buy himself another election. Conclusion, rates won’t rise and house prices will continue to go up. Who would vote for Little Potato that wasn’t being paid to do so?

#110 Wrk.dover on 05.13.21 at 10:54 am

Hey Flop: Act stupid, no one is going to hire somebody smart at the government. Too big a threat to their own job security, and business model.

#111 westcdn on 05.13.21 at 12:51 pm

I am usually a week behind on my postings. Syz is killing me today – easy come, easy go. Missed that retreat but I don’t need to sell and can wait.

My father said to me I was the only one of family that did not ask for money. Actually loaned him some for a new well but I had to do some footwork – he paid it back. No inheritances for me except for some artwork.

My sister and her daughter were/are Scientologists. I did not agree. I have trouble with religions. Yet, I think we are better with than without and believe in something bigger. During Ava’s wedding ceremony, Kirstie Allen dressed as an old woman showed up to act out a denouncement to the wedding.

Ava is cute and works for squat at their Los Angles compound where they run an acting school. She has met celebrities which she pampers and lots of raw talent. She likes me despite my edges.

My daughter’s cat, Alice, also likes me. Cats are strange. I get kicks from her. She meows when I give attention. She carried a wand to me so I would play with her. Alice got through the door when I wasn’t paying attention. Erika told me she always come back after a few minutes. I ignored Alice then I hear scratching. I go outside and chase the neighbors cat away. I laughed when I say how scared she was.

I heard a story that Roman engineers were made to stand under the bridges they built while the Legions marched overhead.

Oh well, back to watching markets and guessing where to land. Good news, Chr was not hammered today. I like both Syz and Chr and will hold till this pandemic passes or I die. Markets are tough recently so I paying attention. Fortunate, I got to sell a few things before and bought down my margin.

#112 Jenn on 05.13.21 at 3:41 pm

Best line ever: “May God help us if this bug’s still here in two years when Trump emerges, like the cicadas.” Oh Garth, you do make me laugh often which during this forever lockdown, I needed today. Thank-you!

#113 happygolucky on 05.14.21 at 4:11 am

#85 Linda on 05.12.21 at 8:11 pm
Will commodity prices moderate once the supply chain is restored? Yes, but likely not to previous levels. Meanwhile everyone is impatiently awaiting vaccine availability. Having pushed AZ to the masses the current supply chain issues with getting a second dose is not going to help get ‘the herd’ immunized. As for mixing vaccines, early indications suggest that doing so increases rather than decreases unfortunate side effects. Not going there, thanks anyway.
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Commodity, supply chain, and vaccines…it is a ZOO. And I am with you re: AZ. A week or so ago, I talked to friend: “just wait, there will be another announcement I hope, Re: AZ“ And I wasn’t wrong, except, it’s very obfuscated message (what else?) to all Guinea Pigs to be…
And message to all Canadian Beavers and Bears: “thanks but no thanks”
WE ARE GOOD