Wood

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Anyone building a deck, dock, fence—or really anything that requires wood—in recent months has probably been shocked by lumber prices at their local Home Depot.

Of course, setting these prices wasn’t an independent decision of Home Depot. This is the current reality of the lumber industry:

PPI: Lumber and wood products: Softwood lumber

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, shaded area = recession

Many of our clients have cited this as proof of inflationary pressures to come. And this is a reasonable conclusion. After all, the US vaccine rollout has been enormously successful, the country is nearing full economic capacity, corporate profits are rebounding, trillions of dollars of stimulus money are presently in the hands of consumers, and the pent up demand’s enormous.

And recent articles from many reputable financial journals, such as Barron’s, have suggested that inflation is coming and could be here to stay. Heavy-hitter JP Morgan also expects both higher short-term and longer-term inflation. JP Morgan notes, for instance, that Americans now have savings equal to almost 8% of GDP and are just itching for places to spend it.

So inflation’s a danger, but we’ve been stressing to our clients to remain cautious. There are many institutions, including the US Federal Reserve itself, that have warned that any rise in inflation will be temporary, and many other reputable investment management firms, such as PIMCO, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, are in agreement. In fact, one of the key house views of Credit Suisse is that the supply-side and demand-side components of the economy, which have been battered around due to Covid, will stabilize and, ironically, result in diminished inflation as the economy recovers.

How so? Well, take the above-mentioned lumber prices as one example. The rise in lumber prices is partly a function of the lockdown. Less worker capacity allowed in lumber mills, combined with a rise in home improvement projects during Covid, is actually to blame for some of this spike. As consumers head back to their offices and are less focused on home building projects (curbing demand) and as vaccines make full capacity at lumber mills possible (increasing supply), lumber prices are likely to moderate.

But indeed history has also shown that inflation can strike quickly and persist at elevated levels. Any readers of a certain age may painfully recall the inflationary environment of the 70s and early 80s:

Inflation, US consumer prices

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, shaded area = recession

So what are investors to do?

First, have assets that protect against inflation. A 60% weighting to equities, for example, is actually indirectly a hedge on rising inflation. As the economy heats up, corporate profitability rises and equities do well. Having additional exposure to small-cap equities is a further advantage—small-caps really benefit from an accelerating economy. In the fixed income space, own Canadian preferred share ETFs and consider any number of “floating rate” ETFs. Why?

Because if the economy recovers too rapidly and inflation creeps up the likelihood of central banks stepping in to cool things off through interest rate hikes increases. As interest rates rise, you need assets that will benefit. Preferred shares and floating rate securities are ideal in this respect.

Second, be measured—a portfolio pivoted excessively to protect against rising inflation is a mistake. For now, two or three ETFs that provide a bit of an extra hedge against rising inflation is sufficient for most portfolios. These weightings can always be added to over time. Remember that the timing of inflation and how long it stays are notoriously hard to forecast, hence the divided opinions at the moment.

So start to prepare your portfolio for inflation, but remain sensible—no major financial institution is forecasting runaway inflation and inflation presently, which is always the best place to start, remains subdued (see chart above).

That being said, two-by-fours are apparently now worth their weight in gold and my local Home Depot (no joke) has a security guard stationed outside its lumber yard.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

92 comments ↓

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 05.01.21 at 8:51 am

I recall Ryan mentioned on a recent weekly call that his home reno bill went up by 10s of thousands. Egads!

Then there’s this:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-soaring-lumber-prices-drive-up-home-renovation-costs/

“We could have a car or a deck”…double egads!!

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at 9:00 am

Don’t come up here for wood, either!

Cottage season 2021 is not happening – deal with it.

STAY AWAY ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

#3 earthboundmisfit on 05.01.21 at 9:16 am

This sounds very much like you’re advocating market timing.

#4 Stephladimir Harputin on 05.01.21 at 9:37 am

Doug, Friends, perhaps you could nudge your ingrate boss Gartho to give me a birthday greeting, even a day late would be nice. After all of the crap I put up with coming from him, it’s the least he could do.

Here’s just a small reminder why I have had so many supporters and fans (all of whom have sent me birthday cards already, ahem…) :

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-wednesday-edition-1.3336554/bidding-war-for-nude-painting-of-former-pm-stephen-harper-1.3336567

#5 Bezengy on 05.01.21 at 9:54 am

There are some serious issues with productivity in this country. Our brightest kids go to work in the government sector, lured by high wages and benefits. Industry gets the leftovers. Few want to work in the trades, or have anything to do with labour intensive work. All bad for inflation. Cost of building a house? $300 per sq. ft? $500 $1000. Who knows?

#6 SCD on 05.01.21 at 9:54 am

Thank you for the post, great information!

#7 SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS on 05.01.21 at 9:54 am

Sure Cottagers, I’ll stay away for now. But come December, I will return to cut down that 6 foot evergreen tree in your front yard.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.21 at 10:04 am

Great subject, you “nailed” it.
…….. and then there’s Hurricanes.

Try and buy a sheet of plywood anywhere after a busy Hurricane season…..

#9 Paddy on 05.01.21 at 10:04 am

Great article as always Doug. I’ve been wanting to build an outdoor sauna but with the current prices in lumber and materials l’m definitely holding off for now. On a much larger scale, I can only imagine how expensive a new build is right now. Have a great weekend.

#10 Tarot card on 05.01.21 at 10:34 am

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the weekend edition Doug
I was pretty young in the 70s
All I remember is my mother buying GICs at 12 percent maybe higher and laddering them every year buying 5 year maturities. She laughed when she had all these long GICs and interest rates fell.
My mistake was locking in my mortgage in 1987 and not understanding the bigger picture. I remember many friends saying variable rate mortgages, but I was young and wanted five years of security. 7 percent was insane.
But then many friends lived through 15 percent. I remember we never believed interest rates would fall.

Doug a question on hedging, I know you cannot give advice and I am doing some research just wondering if there are other funds like QID

Thanks have a great weekend everyone.

#11 DON on 05.01.21 at 11:00 am

I haven’t seen the prices you are seeing in the East in terms of wood 2X4s. Then again we live in woodland. Still an increase though.

Mills are mostly automated…long gone are the masses of green chain lumber workers. Demand for renos are being pulled forward. What happens when we go back to the new normal and the reno feast is gone? We have legions of tradesmen from the last 15 years of a building boom both residential and commercial. All young guys and gals running around in Vans and Trucks. Will the pendemic create larger cohort of savers like me, a do it yourselfer.

I think we need a blog on how to limit your expectations. Maybe our roaring twenties be be a shorter period. When people have to stop using their houses as ATMs. What will the economy do?

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.21 at 11:06 am

@#129 Editrix
“Sorry, Garth, but I’m going to be one of the last to get a shot because the system is too frustrating.”

++++

Yep.
The rush has started and I’m hearing similar complaints of the West Coast.
The bureaucrats and the politicians have had over a year to set this up and roll it out.
An absolute screw up Coast to Coast.

Unless the brainacs realize they should just handle the importation of the Vaccines and let the private sector distribute it
Amazon gets me anything I want in 24-48 hours?!?!? But these guys waffle for days, weeks, months over boxes of ampules…?

Doctors, Pharmacists, dentists, private nurses are all trained to jab arms …… possibly at their own place of business.
Shocking!

But no, the govt has to justify it’s existence and create these monumental Vaccine centers for thousands lined up that look very impressive on tv.
Far more media sexy than a frumpy old Pharmacy with 10 people out front.
One can only imagine the amount of emails, zoom meetings, flow charts, empowerment decisions, synergies, etc etc etc that it took to get us to this point.

Remember them ALL at election time.

#13 westcdn on 05.01.21 at 11:10 am

I have been putting my mighty brain (sarc) to work as where to go with my portfolio. I am running out of ideas when I thinks debt reduction is good in these times. Bunker mentality does not serve me well but it has a place.

For some reason I sense danger in summer/fall 2022. Too many things are percolating under the surface – Trumpish political revenge, excess stimmie, lockdowns, taxes, economic inequality, currency wars, supply chain inflation, global tax rate standards, the green initiatives…

So much to think about. These things are all linked. Impossible for these things to be resolved at once so fall 2022 may just be the beginning of tough times for the plebs. I see a lower standard of living (pampering) for all Canadians and leaders who will make tough decisions as the best solution.

Life has always been tough for the true heroes – guts, savvy and integrity despite where God placed you. It is a learning experience. You still have the power to make a difference for better or worse. I wonder about people who have no regrets. I will have to see the Movie “Without Remorse” to get tuned up. Tom Clancy and John Grisham are among my favorite authors. Zane Grey was my father’s.

April was surprisingly good to me market wise – about 5.8% ytd alone. I had been expecting 0% – 1%. Not exactly shooting out the lights but I will take it and try to keep it.

#14 willworkforpickles on 05.01.21 at 11:11 am

Biden with his 6 trillion in stimulus new debt creation in his first 200 days ought to drive artificial growth for a stretch.
It should herald in normalized interest rates sooner rather than later also within the next 2 years or so now as spooked buyers of national debt will demand or choose to take a walk.
Without those increases the nation will be hobbled in spitting out ever more new debt to maintain servicing old debt.
It’s going to end in a great economic downturn either way anyway.
Better to pay the higher rates than to default and lose primary world reserve currency status and have to deal with even worse outcomes in the sooner rather than later worst case economic scenario.

#15 KNOW IT ALL on 05.01.21 at 11:17 am

Oh great…. not only wood but you meat eaters might be paying up for pork soon also.

And we just might have another pandemic on our hands.

Two infected by swine flu variants in Manitoba: health officials…

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/mobile/two-infected-by-swine-flu-variants-in-manitoba-health-officials-1.5408758

#16 Russ on 05.01.21 at 11:39 am

Wood?
Yes, but we would not turn that wee load into lumber. On Vancouver Island that load is for firewood or pulp mills.

1 to 2 minutes in will show you real wood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3cQjuWXGlU

Mind you I do see the size of raw logs pictured as well as the good stuff being loaded on to freighters (bulk carriers) for exporting good jobs to Asia. But that is the social conscience of American companies owning and operating in Canada.

so, own stock in American parent companies is the take-away.

#17 Northern Bachelors on 05.01.21 at 11:46 am

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Don’t come up here for wood, either!

Cottage season 2021 is not happening – deal with it.

STAY AWAY ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

———

Is this how you keep ladies away away?

#18 TurnerNation on 05.01.21 at 11:57 am

Tourism: Another industry canned by the Feds.
Formula 1 race wisely pulled out of Montreal this year. Why would anyone travel to a place with a wartime curfew in place?

Kanada has a virtual Berlin Wall at the USA border;
A Berlin Wall seperating East Kanada (The poor, Atlantic side of the wall) from West Kanada.
It has armed checkpoints at many provincial borders; and armed checkpoints between many cities.
(I’m looking at you, Leaked Document).
Cruise ships are barred.
Most big cities are darkened, closed, Economically Bom’d to bits. This is WW3 if you’ve not caught on.
Alberta going with wartime curfews too.

Why oh why would any sane person travel here?
Still expecting a severe consumer recession, 2022-24 here.

—–
– 410 days now is it? This ain’t going away. Kanada is doomed to Economic Lockdowns. Tourism kaput. UBI anyone? #greatreset

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021PSSG0031-000793
To help keep communities safe and protect British Columbia’s health-care system from COVID-19, the Province has authorized site-specific road checks on travel corridors between regions to help enforce the non-essential travel restrictions that were announced on April 23, 2021.

#19 Dude your are definitely certifiable on 05.01.21 at 11:58 am

Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at 9:00 am
Don’t come up here for wood, either!

Cottage season 2021 is not happening – deal with it.

STAY AWAY ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

No worries nobody wants to deal with RETARDED rednecks from rural ONTARIO that elected a MO RON LIKE FORD.

I am vacationing in India and then will pay all these scared guys a visit….ROTFLMAO

#20 Doug Rowat on 05.01.21 at 12:15 pm

#3 earthboundmisfit on 05.01.21 at 9:16 am

This sounds very much like you’re advocating market timing.

—-

Risk management. There’s a difference.

—Doug

#21 truefacts on 05.01.21 at 12:22 pm

“As the economy heats up, corporate profitability rises and equities do well.” – Doug
____________________________________

I like your articles and you are very smart, but are you certain equities protect against inflation?

The Dow went nowhere from 1964-1981 losing investors real purchasing power. The S&P did better, but after the 17-year period, real returns were zero after inflation…

If we get inflation (who knows), are you sure we won’t see rising rates and therefore p/e compression leading to very little in actual gains for investors?

#22 Doug Rowat on 05.01.21 at 12:22 pm

#9 Paddy on 05.01.21 at 10:04 am

Great article as always Doug. I’ve been wanting to build an outdoor sauna but with the current prices in lumber and materials l’m definitely holding off.

—-

Now you’re talking cedar. Almost literally its weight in gold.

—Doug

#23 Property Accountant on 05.01.21 at 12:23 pm

Hi Ryan,

Just wanted to make some dents in your theory about portfolio and inflation hedge. Food for thought and healthy debate :-)

1. In Canada we already have interest rates lower than inflation, not to mention mortgage rates. Chances are that even when headline inflation hits 3-4% rate BOC nor banks will do nothing to battle it, as we “need growth” excuse will play out. Its a real chance, in my opinion, as government may decide to “devalue” its debt , that grew immensely lately. In that environment , preferred securities be it fixed or floating rate ones (linked to BOC or prime rate) are loosing value.

2. CPI index is not fully reflecting people experience in COVID-19 (Tiff Mackleem) , they want lumber, new houses, new vehicles and better health (last one we cannot pay for in Canada so we go to US if there is no choice). CPI is still constructed on “old methodology” (giving for example hair cutting services a % value where there were no hair cut services allowed) from before COVID-19. Basket of “goods and services” is not the same anymore. So how can you trust CPI for the past year? Lets be faithful?

3. Best performing assets agains inflation (especially hiperinflation) are gold, precious metals and commodities (like lumber) or their mining / commodity producting companies (stocks). Nowhere mentioned :-)

4. Major financial institution forecasts are always GOOD. How many of them forecasted 2008 / 2009 financial crisis? Moody AAA+ ratings on MBS that turned out to be garbage and caused financial turmoil and bakrupcy of Lehman Brothers? COVID-19 crisis predictions? Did any institution say sth about that?

Something to think about -:)

#24 Wrk.dover on 05.01.21 at 12:24 pm

The machine in the photo is a porter. The operator will have to obliterate a hectare – 100 metres X 100 metres of the type of land shown every day to meet the payment, before overhead is met. The lower part of the pile of sticks on board are so small, geometrically they are mostly waste arcs by volume. You can carry on your shoulder the volume of 2X4’s each stick will yield.

I have googled rainfall requirement for red spruce, but all I get are maps of where they grow.

News Flash: SW Nova Scotia has had half of the normal rain, three years running. The red spruce here are sick beyond repair from dehydration. The logs I mill every day smell like booze, not sap, there is fermentation going on in there. The freshly cut boards are as light as the stale ones at the store. Stage two is rot with bark beetle infestation to end them off.

Covid schmovid, raising CO2 concentrations 25% in 200 years, then another 25% in the latest 35 years is not working out too well….

#25 TurnerNation on 05.01.21 at 12:36 pm

DELETED. You are going too far with the Covid denial. – Garth

#26 sonnydaze on 05.01.21 at 1:29 pm

Thanks Doug, always informative! Have any of the expert deliberations concerning inflation considered inflation due to shortages?

#27 Doug Rowat on 05.01.21 at 1:30 pm

#23 Property Accountant on 05.01.21 at 12:23 pm
Hi Ryan,

Just wanted to make some dents in your theory about portfolio and inflation hedge…

—-

To your third point, we have raised our resource sector exposure recently. But were you expecting an exhaustive white paper here on hedging inflation?

I’ve also noted in my post that there are valid arguments on both sides and we’re proceeding cautiously, which is the main point. Seems prudent.

—Doug

#28 TurnerNation on 05.01.21 at 1:34 pm

I understand your feedback Garth.

BTW I am quite certain I had Covid in late Dec 2019 into Jan ’20. Worst thing I can recall, I’ll always remember that feeling.
Off and on for 3 weeks. Two visits to doctors for meds I’d never before used in my life.
My friends, co-workers , people I met up close, all, would have been exposed to me before, during and after that time frame.

#29 DON on 05.01.21 at 1:36 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.21 at 11:06 am
@#129 Editrix
“Sorry, Garth, but I’m going to be one of the last to get a shot because the system is too frustrating.”

++++

Yep.
The rush has started and I’m hearing similar complaints of the West Coast.
The bureaucrats and the politicians have had over a year to set this up and roll it out.
An absolute screw up Coast to Coast.

Unless the brainacs realize they should just handle the importation of the Vaccines and let the private sector distribute it
Amazon gets me anything I want in 24-48 hours?!?!? But these guys waffle for days, weeks, months over boxes of ampules…?

Doctors, Pharmacists, dentists, private nurses are all trained to jab arms …… possibly at their own place of business.
Shocking!

But no, the govt has to justify it’s existence and create these monumental Vaccine centers for thousands lined up that look very impressive on tv.
Far more media sexy than a frumpy old Pharmacy with 10 people out front.
One can only imagine the amount of emails, zoom meetings, flow charts, empowerment decisions, synergies, etc etc etc that it took to get us to this point.

Remember them ALL at election time.

*********************

I took my sis in law to get her scheduled shot yesterday evening and it was fast and easy.

The rush appears to be from the younger groups now swarming the pop up clinics or pharamacies. Lessoned learned? ‘It’s different this time’

#30 The Joy of Steerage on 05.01.21 at 1:39 pm

Everyone is moving to NS… you are a RE magnet Garth….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-wagons-east-meet-the-homeowners-driving-a-real-estate-exodus-to/

#31 Doug Rowat on 05.01.21 at 1:50 pm

#21 truefacts on 05.01.21 at 12:22 pm
“As the economy heats up, corporate profitability rises and equities do well.” – Doug
____________________________________

I like your articles and you are very smart, but are you certain equities protect against inflation?

If we get inflation (who knows), are you sure we won’t see rising rates and therefore p/e compression leading to very little in actual gains for investors?

—-

Everything can be hedged…until things get wildly excessive. A fire retardant suit won’t help you if you’re jumping into a volcano.

Yes, if inflation becomes runaway it can result in recessions (see chart above for the 1970s), in which case the most boring components of your fixed income allocation are probably your best and only hedge. But no one is calling for runaway inflation and we’re not preparing for that.

And I’m not that smart, I’ve just been around a long time.

—Doug

#32 DON on 05.01.21 at 1:52 pm

#24 Wrk.dover on 05.01.21 at 12:24 pm
The machine in the photo is a porter. The operator will have to obliterate a hectare – 100 metres X 100 metres of the type of land shown every day to meet the payment, before overhead is met. The lower part of the pile of sticks on board are so small, geometrically they are mostly waste arcs by volume. You can carry on your shoulder the volume of 2X4’s each stick will yield.

I have googled rainfall requirement for red spruce, but all I get are maps of where they grow.

News Flash: SW Nova Scotia has had half of the normal rain, three years running. The red spruce here are sick beyond repair from dehydration. The logs I mill every day smell like booze, not sap, there is fermentation going on in there. The freshly cut boards are as light as the stale ones at the store. Stage two is rot with bark beetle infestation to end them off.

*******

We call those logs pecker poles. It is a lot of work cutting something that small unless you beam it for sale. Good for home lumber though or trade.

In the paste I have cut pine…but not pine beattle. Had heard it turns hard if the logs are sitting to long. We have a problem with powder worm in our cedar trees that grow in gravelly areas.

Fermentation…smell. Use axe…lol

#33 Dolce Vita on 05.01.21 at 1:53 pm

Thank you for the advice Doug.

I’ll see what I can change with my meagre, threadbare portfolio…always eagre for ways to turn it into meek.

————-

PS:

Apr 30 overall data versus 1 week ago (over the past 3 weeks):

ICU, Hospitalizations, Infections noticeably lower for all age groups.

Why?

Who cares, just glad for it.

Nicely done Canada.

#34 DON on 05.01.21 at 1:56 pm

#16 Russ on 05.01.21 at 11:39 am
Wood?
Yes, but we would not turn that wee load into lumber. On Vancouver Island that load is for firewood or pulp mills.

1 to 2 minutes in will show you real wood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3cQjuWXGlU

Mind you I do see the size of raw logs pictured as well as the good stuff being loaded on to freighters (bulk carriers) for exporting good jobs to Asia. But that is the social conscience of American companies owning and operating in Canada.

so, own stock in American parent companies is the take-away.

*********

Russ knows his stuff.

Related.
My bro works in a pulp mill on the isle and there was talk of being able to use hemp.

#35 DON on 05.01.21 at 2:50 pm

@Crowded

Here’s some more stuff about corruption and background info. The second link is how the bc libetals used a additions center as a bc liberal call out center for bc liberal candidates/MLAs in Prince George…and came out this past week

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/how-do-pandas-play-into-canada-s-relationship-with-china-1.1209848

https://biv.com/article/2021/04/investigation-bc-owned-addiction-rehab-allegedly-used-liberal-politicking-contract

Even Marc Cohodes the short seller has been playing attention to the BC Liberal and Canada in general. He has been quite verbal about the panda bonds.

And here is Richard Fadden in 2010.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/some-politicians-under-foreign-sway-csis-1.909345

Tip of the ice berg…

How is this remotely relevant to this blog? – Garth

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.21 at 2:56 pm

We wanted to redo our smallish deck.
But after getting some quotes (which were outragius) and having to wait 5 months, we just just decided do it ourselves.
The bones were still quite good, so we just did some rough sanding and then used some leftover paint.
Actually, it’s looking surprisingly good.
These modern paints are fantastic.
Cost $10 for sandpaper.
Two people, one afternoon.
Lowest bit from contractor was $850.
This was a labor of love, so I won’t calculate the opportunity cost of the project.

#37 Ustabe on 05.01.21 at 3:10 pm

Wood: yes, we do call those type of logs pecker poles. You haven’t lived until you are going up a rise on a narrow gravel logging road and suddenly a full sized off road logging truck loaded with real wood comes at you. Those things run upwards of 80,000 pounds!

Vaccines in BC: Despite the grumblings of those who live all stacked up on top of one another my experience and that of those I talk to is one of quiet, planned, orderly competence in both registering for and receiving the jab.

Do not let the issues that are a result solely of big city living paint the entire province. Neighbour just had shoulder surgery, one week wait. All our backlog from the first shut down is gone, everything is current in our local hospital.

As to the vaccine: Care Homes, done. Assisted living? Done. Old folks, mostly done. Incarcerated and Indigenous? Done. Taking reservations for 30 something year olds? Ongoing.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.21 at 3:13 pm

#29 DON on 05.01.21 at 1:36 pm
#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.21 at 11:06 am
@#129 Editrix
“Sorry, Garth, but I’m going to be one of the last to get a shot because the system is too frustrating.”

++++

Yep.
The rush has started and I’m hearing similar complaints of the West Coast.
The bureaucrats and the politicians have had over a year to set this up and roll it out.
An absolute screw up Coast to Coast.

Unless the brainacs realize they should just handle the importation of the Vaccines and let the private sector distribute it
Amazon gets me anything I want in 24-48 hours?!?!? But these guys waffle for days, weeks, months over boxes of ampules…?

Doctors, Pharmacists, dentists, private nurses are all trained to jab arms …… possibly at their own place of business.
Shocking!

But no, the govt has to justify it’s existence and create these monumental Vaccine centers for thousands lined up that look very impressive on tv.
Far more media sexy than a frumpy old Pharmacy with 10 people out front.
One can only imagine the amount of emails, zoom meetings, flow charts, empowerment decisions, synergies, etc etc etc that it took to get us to this point.

Remember them ALL at election time.

*********************

I took my sis in law to get her scheduled shot yesterday evening and it was fast and easy.
———–
Same here.
Most of my family and friend have had their first shots.
Nothing is perfect, Dr. Bonnie does an remarkable job.

#39 the jaguar on 05.01.21 at 3:50 pm

@#34 DON……
Any chance those big trucks pulling those logs are battery powered DON?
Or might it be more likely they move down the twisty roads powered by DIESEL made from petroleum?

#40 Linda on 05.01.21 at 4:01 pm

It isn’t ‘just’ lumber where the price of materials has increased. As per a builder acquaintance of mine, the cost ‘per door’ which is builder speak for a new house is estimated to cost $80,000 more than it did last year – all due to the fact that the building supplies required are in short supply. Hence the stunning price increase. Any bets as to whether the sticker price for those new builds will reflect the price increase of the building materials involved? Any bets as to those price increases remaining as the new normal even as society reopens & the supply chain is no longer disrupted?

#41 the Jaguar on 05.01.21 at 4:21 pm

I meant to add further (derailed by my tablet), that adding to Doug’s comments about inflation, what has me on the edge of my seat is inflation in combination with supply shortages. The parts, widgets, microchips and everyday foodstuffs and items we take for granted.

I don’t fear that perfect storm, but try to prepare for it and thank my lucky stars I live an uncomplicated life. Well, mostly…

#42 the Jaguar on 05.01.21 at 4:27 pm

Last post. I await my next book order.
‘All Against All: The Long Winter of 1933 and the Origins of the Second World War’. author Paul Jankowski.
Not sure if war is around the corner, there is something about the current goings on and history that keep rattling around in my head with that ‘deja vu all over again’ kind of feeling. Mercy.

#43 Faron on 05.01.21 at 4:39 pm

#35 DON on 05.01.21 at 2:50 pm

Are you following Marc’s advice to purchase OSTK and CWH?

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.21 at 2:56 pm

Nice job revitilizing your deck. There’s great pleasure to be had in revealing the beauty lurking behind junky old wood. I recently disassembled a saggy exterior door, stripped it and am now varnishing up the old wood. Beautiful red doug fir.

#37 Ustabe on 05.01.21 at 3:10 pm

I’ve yet to have run in with one of those. Hope to never. It’s one of the places the term “ditching” comes from I believe.

#39 the jaguar on 05.01.21 at 3:50 pm

Yes, everyone knows twisty roads are the bane of electric cars. Ask Sail Away, I’m pretty sure his Tesla isn’t any fun in the curves. All that torque and low center of gravity. Ew.

You might be surprised how amenable short, slow, steep and heavy trucking is to electric. The regenerative braking would be a massive efficiency win given all the free potential energy in a load of trees at elevation.

#44 DON on 05.01.21 at 4:57 pm

How is this remotely relevant to this blog? – Garth

It wasn’t. But it does affect the state of affairs. Yes am stretching and was momentarily bored.

@ JAG

Those big trucks run on love. Like a diesel jeans add.

#45 Marxist on 05.01.21 at 5:20 pm

Member of the Toronto elite club, Mayr John Tory, disputing that Toronto real estate is in a bubble:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-mayor-john-tory-rejects-bmo-s-bubble-claim-argues-housing-market-is-healthy-1.673655

The article is four years old. – Garth

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.21 at 5:40 pm

#42 the Jaguar on 05.01.21 at 4:27 pm
Last post. I await my next book order.
‘All Against All: The Long Winter of 1933 and the Origins of the Second World War’. author Paul Jankowski.
Not sure if war is around the corner, there is something about the current goings on and history that keep rattling around in my head with that ‘deja vu all over again’ kind of feeling. Mercy.
———–
Seems every day, a new book comes out trying to explain the “origins” of WWII.
WW2 has been very lucrative for Hollywood and many “historians”.
Anyone who truly studied the subject will tell you that any comparison of the current political, cultural and economic conditions to the conditions during the years leading up to WW2 is far-fetched, fed by conformation bias.
History repeats, but not always.

#47 DON on 05.01.21 at 5:44 pm

The Fed says inflation is transitory a seemingly large group are doubting that from what I have been reading in the MSM. Who do we believe and does history have any lessons for us? I was to young in the 70s inflationary context. I remember the switch to smaller lighter cars. And what happens after this whole pendemic demand lessens. Is the assumption that throwing tons of gas down the carburator will keep the engine running. Will people rush to travel to unvaccinated but exotic destinations. The Spanish flu had 4 waves. It was a great week for earnings but that was already baked in and markets dipped. Thanks for advice about ETFs and inflation Doug.

@Ponzie

Building a deck vs waiting…good for you.

I am way over my gentlmeny comment limit.

Later folks.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.21 at 5:48 pm

@#36 Ponzies Patio Paperchase
“Lowest bit from contractor was $850.”

++++++

Hmmm.
$850 is quite low for two guys to go pick up the lumber.
Rip out your old deck, build a new deck, paint or seal it, remove the garbage to the dump.
Outrageous?
Hardly.
Especially if that person is a legitimate contractor paying insurance, WCB, taxes etc……
I’d say $850 was a “cash” quote.
When was the last time you had any contractors do work around your house….1963?

#49 M Lowson on 05.01.21 at 5:48 pm

Garth,

It has come to my attention that your blog has published negative references to the reputation of the City of Toronto.

We urge that you cease and desist from publishing false information about the City of Toronto.

The City of Toronto is rated as the best world class city in the world by The Economist, best city for young people and the city with the highest Gross Domestic Product per capita in Canada.

Toronto is a great city, and you’re just a bitter person who makes a living bashing our great city.

Bill C 10 will give the City of Toronto the mandate to block your website from Canadian audiences.

#50 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.21 at 5:56 pm

Wood brings me back 40 years ago when I came to BC. And lumber was the major industry in BC.
Jack Monroe was the Union leader. He was bigger than life.
In those days they were already talking about stopping exporting raw logs, and developing value added industries.
Seems that we’re still having the same conversation now.
Bill Bennet vs. Jack Monroe, classic.

#51 kc on 05.01.21 at 6:22 pm

37 Ustabe on 05.01.21 at 3:10 pm

Wood: yes, we do call those type of logs pecker poles. You haven’t lived until you are going up a rise on a narrow gravel logging road and suddenly a full sized off road logging truck loaded with real wood comes at you. Those things run upwards of 80,000 pounds!

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

We run these trucks still in BC logging. Your 80K gvw is peanuts to these monsters….

————

“The truck was built in the mid-60s by Hayes Manufacturing in Vancouver.

It has a V12 Detroit engine, which boasts approximately 450 hp, which was considered substantial for the time. The truck had a GVW of 214,000 lbs, weighed 46,700 lbs and pulled a 20,000-lb trailer with a combined length of approximately 55 feet.”

#52 Ed on 05.01.21 at 6:30 pm

Those logs in the pic would be about average size for what we shipped thru the chip n saw’s back in the day when I worked at Weyerhauser mill at OK Falls.

Maybe get 2 2×4’s out of each but we could pump close to 300k fbm/shift….good times & good money until I Can’t Barret took charge of the province.

Anyone want some cheap BRIC shares?

#53 islander on 05.01.21 at 6:36 pm

https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/economic/2021/04/1000-word-charts-u-s-construction-material-costs

The cost of everything:

1,000-Word Charts: U.S. and Canadian Construction Material Costs

“These 1,000-word charts look at U.S. (as of March 2021) and Canadian (as of February 2021) construction material costs.”

#54 Faron on 05.01.21 at 6:39 pm

BTW: a sheet of plywood costs as much as a barrel of oil.

A year ago, a pint of beer cost as much as a barrel of oil. Utility anyone?

#55 Nonplused on 05.01.21 at 6:54 pm

“That being said, two-by-fours are apparently now worth their weight in gold and my local Home Depot (no joke) has a security guard stationed outside its lumber yard.”

Is ANTIFA in Canada now? And looting the Home Depot?

—————————

I don’t agree that inflation is, has been, or ever will be “transitory”. The general trend is always up. Yes, lumber prices will come down from these crazy shortage inspired prices, but they won’t go down to where they were. And I am sure it will take a long time, as I believe a lot of projects people had in mind were postponed once they got to Home Depot, saw the prices, and experienced sticker shock. So once prices begin to return to normal I expect higher than normal demand.

I expect to also see a change in behavior in the home building industry. No more selling pre-construction homes without locking in the price of the majority of the building materials. Larger companies could do this using futures and swaps, but small to medium sized companies will resort to buying lifts of wood where they sit at the sawmill, for delivery when needed, or at least pre-ordering.

The “lost productivity” (ie. the 2×4’s that did not get made due to covid) will also take a long time to catch up on, so shortages will persist long after sawmills are back to full capacity.

So ya, lumber prices will come down, but it is going to take a lot longer than I think people are expecting. Plus the mill are going to be reluctant to give up their newly found pricing power.

We are going to have problems like this throughout the supply chain. The “missing year” of productivity can’t easily be recovered. For example, most people in the know know that auto manufacturers have been shutting down lines because they can’t get enough computer chips, which modern cars are heavily dependant on. Heck these days the heater won’t even work without one. In the old days you had a couple slide levers and a switch for the fan. Now it’s all computers and servomotors. But anyway the point is that those cars that did not get built probably never will for a long time so there will be pricing power at the showroom which will trickle down into the used car market too.

These factors, combined with all the money printing, will be inflationary. The question is, will wages keep up? If they don’t, which I don’t think they will, the wealth gap will continue to widen.

#56 I'm a coming! on 05.01.21 at 7:01 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at 9:00 am
Don’t come up here for wood, either!

Cottage season 2021 is not happening – deal with it.

STAY AWAY ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

******************

Chill, I’ve been vaxxed.

#57 -=withwings=- on 05.01.21 at 7:02 pm

We just bought a new brand of paper towels. Made in China. Now China has very little to none forest cover left.
So they imported wood, likely from Brazil, Canada or USA, made paper towels and then sold it back to us. We’ve hit bottom when we can’t even produce wood products in Canada competitively anymore

#58 Cottage bound on 05.01.21 at 7:29 pm

Re: 2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Always laugh when I see posts by this individual. Obviously they have never been on the 400, Highway 11, 115 or 35 on any Friday night. These roads are always packed with half of the GTA heading to cottages, camping or vacationing!
So much for anyone listening to the whining of this poster.

#59 Nonplused on 05.01.21 at 7:35 pm

Two articles I came across, not relevant to today’s topic but perhaps good for longer term investment thought.

https://www.cfact.org/2021/04/29/climate-models-hotter-than-reality/

https://www.cfact.org/2021/04/29/are-the-texas-blackouts-a-preview-of-bidens-coming-green-new-deal/

Key takeaways:

– observed temperatures are in an uptrend
– but nowhere near what most computer models predict

and,

– reliance on wind power did cause the Texas blackouts
– other factors included the use of electric compressors for gas due to environmental regulations, which could not run once the grid went down
– wind power dropped 93% during the crisis
– gas fired power increased 450% but it wasn’t enough
– even in states where wind turbines are winterized power production often drops to near zero
– Australia and California have also experience wind (or lack thereof) caused blackouts
– “CFACT senior policy analyst Paul Driessen writes that to meet America’s energy needs while going 100 percent “renewable,” it would require 350,000 square miles of solar panels (or the size of Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico combined), or about 820,000 square miles of land for wind turbines (which is over one fourth of the continental United States).”
– and you still need backup, whether battery (lots of batteries) or fossil fuel

The Green New Deal simply doesn’t pencil out on wind and solar, folks. We should be looking at Gen IV nuclear. Electric cars are great, but they still run largely on fossil fuels for now.

#60 Jake on 05.01.21 at 7:42 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. Big city taxes pay for your infrastructure and subsidize your livelihood. Be thankful Garth lets you post your ignorance.

#61 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at 7:47 pm

#56 I’m a coming! on 05.01.21 at 7:01 pm

******************

Chill, I’ve been vaxxed.

____________________________________

Vaccination does not stop you from spreading the virus.

Duhhhhhh…….

Thanks for confirming your status as a low-intelligence, inbred southern hillbilly, though.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#62 Nonplused on 05.01.21 at 8:15 pm

Who pays tax?

This article is based on US numbers, but I am sure something similar is going on in Canada:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/when-politicians-say-fair-tax-they-only-mean-more-tax

Key takeaways:

“In other words, the average one-percenter household earned about 125 times what the average bottom 20-percenter household earned, but paid over 2,000 times the federal taxes.”

“The average household among the top 1% paid $620,000 in federal taxes and received $1,300 in transfers on $2 million in market income, for an effective net tax rate of 31%. The average middle-income household paid $10,500 and received $16,800 on market income of $61,700 for an effective net tax rate of NEGATIVE 10%. The average household among the bottom 20% paid $300 in taxes and received $20,300 in transfers on $15,900 in market income for an effective net tax rate of NEGATIVE 126%.”

“In a democracy, a tax system in which some are net payers and others are net recipients becomes dangerously unstable when the net recipients constitute more than half of all voters. At that point, the majority have an incentive to vote for ever more spending for themselves and ever more taxes on the minority who pay.”

This is, I believe, why Trudeau did not raise taxes this time with his so-called budget. I mean we can speculate all we want about his IQ and understanding of economics and psychology, but where he lacks you can be sure the Liberal party has legions in their employ who do understand these things.

So the way you go about it is to make over 50% of the population net recipients of government largess FIRST, and then you will never lose another election. THEN you raise taxes on the minority. That’s why this budget was all about new benefits with no regard to how we will pay for them. That’s coming later.

It’s time to head for Galt’s Gulch.

#63 NSNG on 05.01.21 at 8:33 pm

Jimmy Pattison was buying lumber company shares by the bucketful a while back.

I guess that’s why he is a billionaire.

#64 YYC guy on 05.01.21 at 8:53 pm

What are the top three ETFs you would recommend?
I’m not an expert on these things and would be nice to have some names/symbols.
Thanks!!!

#65 Doug Rowat on 05.01.21 at 9:06 pm

#41 the Jaguar on 05.01.21 at 4:21 pm

I meant to add further (derailed by my tablet), that adding to Doug’s comments about inflation, what has me on the edge of my seat is inflation in combination with supply shortages.

—-

Economies do pivot. Watch how quickly hiring begins once raw-good suppliers have manufacturers breathing down their necks. There is no reason yet to think the supply constraints will be lasting.

—Doug

#66 mark on 05.01.21 at 9:20 pm

I remember a WSJ article from around 2017/18 where a bunch of people had gone all in on tree farms for retirement and of course because all these schemes were planted at the same time there was an oversupply come harvest time.

Wonder how that’s working out now.

#67 I'm a coming! on 05.01.21 at 9:21 pm

#61 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at 7:47 pm
#56 I’m a coming! on 05.01.21 at 7:01 pm

******************

Chill, I’ve been vaxxed.

____________________________________

Vaccination does not stop you from spreading the virus.

Duhhhhhh…….

Thanks for confirming your status as a low-intelligence, inbred southern hillbilly, though.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

********************

Vaxxing doesn’t stop the spread? What then would be the point?

Have you got the vax? Maybe you should if you are so afraid of people you don’t interact with anyway because nobody likes you.

I think the “low-intelligence, inbred hillbillies” might be up north.

Get the vax and chill.

#68 alexinvestor on 05.01.21 at 9:32 pm

Warren Buffett is seeing substantial inflation and raising prices.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-we-are-seeing-substantial-inflation-and-are-raising-prices-220539307.html

#69 Dr V on 05.01.21 at 9:34 pm

51 kc

“The truck had a GVW of 214,000 lbs, weighed 46,700 lbs and pulled a 20,000-lb trailer…”

That sounds closer to what I recall from recording the loads for a couple of days at the dump. I think those trucks had 14 foot bunks and loads were about 80 tons
(or tonnes?). Long time ago.

43 faron

“You might be surprised how amenable short, slow,
steep and heavy trucking is to electric. The
regenerative braking would be a massive efficiency win
given all the free potential energy in a load of trees at
elevation.”

As these huge vehicles are not highway legal, they require a “dump” into tidewater, or log sort where the logs are then re-loaded on highway trucks for transport
to mills. This can be expensive, and now many logs are “stump to dump” on highway trucks, which can be a long haul.

You may have a drop of hundreds of vertical metres in several km (10-15% ave grade) to the main logging
roads which follow the valley bottoms of major
drainages, and may not have a significant fall for 30km or more when you are logging out the “back end”. I’ve also seen B-trains with 2 trailers for those long, flat hauls.

So it sounds like a great idea but I don’t know how well it fits given all the variables. I know it has been used in some mining operations. should also be used on the
dreaded e-bikes.

And we may not be logging old growth much longer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fairy-creek-watershed-injuction-1.5977856

16 Russ – thanks for the Vid!
37 ustabe – be careful out there!

#70 Nonplused on 05.01.21 at 9:36 pm

“Economies do pivot. Watch how quickly hiring begins once raw-good suppliers have manufacturers breathing down their necks. There is no reason yet to think the supply constraints will be lasting.

—Doug”

I agree to an extent, but further to my point at #55 sawmills are not going to invest in capital to catch up for the “missing year”. At least not if they are smart and look at the futures market for their price discovery. If they are smart, they will run what capital they have at 100% and enjoy high returns while realizing that like Texas power prices the short term price signal isn’t sustainable. Thus, the market will come back into balance, but I think it is going to take a lot longer than people think. Maybe 4 years of gradually declining lumber prices until a balance is reached.

Any sawmill that builds new capacity based on current prices is bound to fail. Smart operators won’t do it and smart bankers won’t fund it. They’ll end up like the US shale industry, in ruins due to oversupply. So that is why I think the market will stabilize, but not this year. No more so than “2 weeks to flatten the curve”. I think it will take longer, but we agree on the trend.

Lost productivity is hard to recover.

#71 R on 05.01.21 at 11:01 pm

Canada has the highest total debt to GDP in the world. We are worse than Japan. What does this mean for our children and grandchildren ? Demographics tells us that in 10 to 15 years, Canada will have more older people to workers than ever before.What does this mean for our children and grandchildren. I think there are challenges coming up that will make Covid 19 seem pale in comparison. I believe life in the next 15 years will look nothing like life in the past 15 years. Being financially prepared will be a small part of the challenge.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/debt-to-gdp-continues-to-rise-around-world/

#72 westcdn on 05.01.21 at 11:04 pm

That picture – you have to like the Canadian east coast forests if you are a logging faller. Clean level fields best use is pulp for toilet paper. You won’t find that on the wet coasts and the trees are are bigger and trickery, never mind the underbrush.

My stepmother said the difference between foresters and fishers was strong legs and feet vs strong arms and hands. I did not like wearing rain slickers. The noseeums would run up my cuffs and bite. My ankles itched. Fortunately, I only worked the summers and in the shade. Forests always have a cool breeze even in a fire season.

Hemlocks are damp wood. They grow in damp areas and my father would send me after them. He kept the Douglas and Cedars to himself because they were valuable and bigger. I favor Douglas indoors and Cedar outdoors – Hemlock – blah. Hemlock is okay if dried and tinted/oiled but soft. Right up there with pine – I never dealt with it in the field but I am not impressed. Neither have the shelf life I want.

Weird, I like tile particularly with electrical heating. Slippery when wet as a penalty but there are textures and other solutions.

I know nothing about vinyl “wood” except they may be good for my deck. Spruce like Hemlock leave things to be desired. It seems to be an common Alberta tree. I am going to have to rebuild my deck, pressure treated spruce joints come to mind. I am okay with replacing a few planks each year. Screws are the the way to go for me.

I don’t remember attacking a lot of spruce but it was the type of tree my father would send me after. It strikes me as a dry wood tree – prone to shrinkage rather
than Douglas and Cedar. I think wood you can’t remove nails are Douglas.

#73 Ostrich in Sand Out for a glance on 05.01.21 at 11:48 pm

Truth Stranger than Fiction

Eye-Opener(s)

https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

#74 Michael in-north-york on 05.02.21 at 12:02 am

#2 Cottagers Pathogen, did you slip in again? Stay in the woods, you belong there and not in the city. Learn from a squirrel and build yourself a nest. Where do you prefer to nest, on the hills or in the wetlands?

#75 Michael in-north-yourk on 05.02.21 at 12:11 am

#49 M Lowson

“Bill C 10 will give the City of Toronto the mandate to block your website from Canadian audiences.”

===
Trying to enhance the VPN awareness amongst the general public? Are you acting pro-bono, or working for a paid VPN provider?

#76 happygolucky on 05.02.21 at 3:13 am

#54 Faron on 05.01.21 at 6:39 pm
BTW: a sheet of plywood costs as much as a barrel of oil.
A year ago, a pint of beer cost as much as a barrel of oil. Utility anyone?
—————————————————-

Interesting, but still irrelevant.
Well, a year ago, “bartender could offer you 2 for 1, and still free…”
Markets, supply and demand, as always…

#77 happygolucky on 05.02.21 at 3:19 am

#40 Linda on 05.01.21 at 4:01 pm
It isn’t ‘just’ lumber where the price of materials has increased. As per a builder acquaintance of mine, the cost ‘per door’ which is builder speak for a new house is estimated to cost $80,000 more than it did last year – all due to the fact that the building supplies required are in short supply. Hence the stunning price increase. Any bets as to whether the sticker price for those new builds will reflect the price increase of the building materials involved? Any bets as to those price increases remaining as the new normal even as society reopens & the supply chain is no longer disrupted?
—————————————————————

Well, this Pandemic, and I mean those invisible pathogens, wreak quite a havoc
According to US year to year timber up about 250 % overall coast of materials 12%
Construction sector is still demanding federal government to lift sanctions and tariffs (which backfired again) to ease imports.
Demand is high, so is increase in price contrary to this blog “doomsday” year ago.
We might resume “normal” life but some high prices will stay with us for some time as a result of “pathogenic lockdowns”, and now required “recovery”, markets will sort this out again…and it won’t be overnight business, my bet.
And in context of this Pandemic, all above seem to be quite “sinister” indeed.

#78 happygolucky on 05.02.21 at 3:26 am

#54 Faron on 05.01.21 at 6:39 pm
BTW: a sheet of plywood costs as much as a barrel of oil.
A year ago, a pint of beer cost as much as a barrel of oil. Utility anyone?
——————————————————————

Interesting, but still irrelevant.
Well, a year ago, “bartender could offer you 2 for 1, and still free…”
Markets, supply and demand, as always…

#79 Toronto_CA on 05.02.21 at 4:22 am

“#61 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.01.21 at

Vaccination does not stop you from spreading the virus.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/28/single-dose-of-covid-vaccine-can-nearly-halve-transmission-of-virus-study-finds

Hah.. Opposite!

The vaccines, and not these incredibly ineffective and draconian, previously unthinkable lockdowns, are the way out of the pandemic.
Don’t knock the vaccines. Unlock stay at home orders, they actually reduce hospitalisations, deaths and even transmission of / from covid.

#80 Under the radar on 05.02.21 at 5:25 am

Try buying a portable sawmill these days . One year wait. Just assembled my Granberg chainsaw mill and will try milling some boards .
Meanwhile those pallets at the side of the road I can no longer pass without taking a good look and very likely helping myself .

#81 Florida Boy on 05.02.21 at 5:37 am

DELETED

#82 Bezengy on 05.02.21 at 7:27 am

A few years back I had about 20 black ash trees poached (stolen) from my property. It’s actually pretty common here in Northern Ontario with cedar or pine. I’m sure the amount of theft going on now is off the charts. Don’t bother calling the MNR or cops. Nobody cares.

#83 the Jaguar on 05.02.21 at 8:43 am

Current active cases Calgary 9423. Total cases to date 76831. Deaths 632
Current active cases Edmonton 6065. Total cases to date 68,798. Deaths 1040
The drill down on all these statistics when it is over will be interesting.
Hope they call me soon for my shot.

#84 Left GTA on 05.02.21 at 10:19 am

I have a question wonder if anyone knows the answer. My friend got wrapped up in the one of the MLM buying insurance products. I read online that there was discussion for seg funds they didn’t have to disclose fees and fund performance like you have to with mutual funds. Was it ever made a regulation where the insurance co have to disclose that info. now? Just curious. Also how do I get her to understand the product which she purchased is not in her best interest. It is a UL product.

#85 George S on 05.02.21 at 10:21 am

#80 Under the radar:

Once you start milling your own lumber with a chainsaw mill or a portable sawmill you will likely realize why even at the inflated prices that we are seeing for lumber right now that 2X4’s and other dimensional lumber are a pretty good deal, especially for city or town folks.
If you have access to trees you will notice that many of them are unsuitable for making dimensional lumber, usually that is why they exist, they were rejected for being cut for lumber for various reasons and allowed to live on to provide some natural scenery for people.
You may also find that the chainsaw you need to use for a chainsaw mill costs almost as much as a portable sawmill.

The reason that even at these inflated prices lumber is a good deal is that there is a huge infrastructure, often heavily government subsidized, set up to produce lumber economically, quickly and efficiently and to deliver it to the end user in sufficient quantities that distributors can make a living. Try drying those home cut 2X4s into something that you would not hesitate to put into a wall to see what I mean.

For all you guys trying to figure out things about renewable power, look up EROEI of buffered solar and wind. Without buffering renewables look really good but are useless.

#86 Doug Rowat on 05.02.21 at 10:28 am

#71 R on 05.01.21 at 11:01 pm

Canada has the highest total debt to GDP in the world. We are worse than Japan. What does this mean for our children and grandchildren ? Demographics tells us that in 10 to 15 years, Canada will have more older people to workers than ever before.What does this mean for our children and grandchildren.

—-

Yes, think of the children. You’re going to give yourself hypertension worrying about all this. Any well-structured, long-term investment portfolio should be global. Then you can worry about Canada less. Maybe.

—Doug

#87 Dharma Bum on 05.02.21 at 10:31 am

The log house backwoods type dudes are out of luck.

Those hermit Walden Pond Thoreau or Richard Proenneke type guys can no longer afford to build out of wood.

https://www.nps.gov/lacl/learn/historyculture/proennekes-cabin.htm

They’re resorting to either mud huts or using metal studs.

https://www.buildingsguide.com/building-applications/residential-steel-buildings/steel-homes/

Wood, shmood. Where there’s a will there’s a way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI4lk_Ijz6M

#88 Don on 05.02.21 at 10:40 am

Will history repeat itself with a major stock market correction? “Stockholdings among U.S. households in-creased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.As of late February, investors had bor-rowed a record $814 billion against their portfolios, according to data from the Financial Industry Regula-tory Authority, Wall Street’s self-regulatory arm. That was up 49% from one year earlier, the fastest annual increase since 2007, during the frothy period before the 2008 financial crisis. Before that, the last time in-vestor borrowings had grown so rapidly was during the dot-com bubble in 1999.”

Wall Street Journal, 2021/05/01

Corrections are needed, heathy and certainly not to be feared. – Garth

#89 willworkforpickles on 05.02.21 at 10:49 am

Hypothetically speaking…and this is only hypothetical.

-The pandemic likely won’t go into a 4th wave insomuch as it won’t be called that if and when efforts begin to fail to finally contain it in NA and numbers rise again.
They (government) will put a lid on it and try to smother it until it hopefully goes away .. fixing the numbers and keeping the media off it for the most part in an effort to save face with the success of the vaccinations undertaking –

Could this (but just hypothetical
at the moment) whitewash nonetheless, be in the works?

Afterall…Biden is now going around saying those who have been vaxed don’t need to wear masks any longer or social distance contrary to medical opinion currently.
He is also saying that those who are vaxed can be an example to those who aren’t as to what they are missing and can have that former freedom back also by getting vaxed and can re-join society unmasked not having to social distance any further (contrary to current medical opinion)
…therein lies the hypothesis being contrary to current medical opinion by a US President.

#90 Stealth on 05.02.21 at 11:11 am

Hi Doug,

All else being equal, how do you account for the volatility risk of preferred shares?
For example they are hybrid between equity and bonds, agree, however they are classified in fixed income and have suffered more than or were more volatile than equities. I needed to ‘feel’ this on my own skin to understand fully.
So, prefs are ok however folks need to understand that before they panic when their fixed portion falls instead of acting like a ballast.

Let us know your thoughts on this please.

#91 westcdn on 05.02.21 at 11:21 am

My father arranged a water taxi trip to Princess Louisa Marine Park up the Jervis Inlet for my 30th birthday. He loved his grand daughters. It was a sunny day and the inlet was magnificent viewing.

We had on board – Beth. She inherited a fortune from her husband and liked my father. When we arrived at the bay, she jumped overboard to take a leak. The water was cold – she laughed. She knew “Chip” Wilson and told stories. She had a like friend she brought along – where is the booze Chip?

She had a very nice waterfront home though you had stairs to deal with to get to her dock. She watched me like a hawk when I was fishing for crab. She made me use a bicycle rim and throw back those that did not meet regulation. Lets say crab fishing was meager from her dock. Not that I flaunt rules but I push them.

We passed a building as we entered the bay through the cannel. I was told it was a rich private school for young women – convents live again. It was a converted detox centre for Hollywood stars of the times. A few were built in isolated areas in BC and you visit them if you know where they are – kinda of like nudist colonies or Wreck Beach. It reminds me of the 5 Star adult only hotel in Cancun.

The bay was majestic. We visited the old logging wooden ramps to tow the trees out and steam donkey engines left behind. Tough for the guys of the times, they were probably better off as sailors.

Word of warning, it is an area dump zone for wayward grizzlies.

#92 kc on 05.02.21 at 11:37 am

demand or greedy commodity traders?

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2021/05/02/there-is-no-shortage-train-loads-of-lumber-stacked-as-far-as-the-eye-can-see/#more-238660