FOMO 3.0

The virus news sucked this week. Now what?

Ontario cases are looking worse than Doug Ford’s polling numbers. The ICUs are a mess and while the dosing has picked up, the slimy little variants are winning. Will Toronto’s five-month-long lockdown end soon? Nah, probably not. It’s a death knell for Main Street.

In BC the province is actually musing about RCMP roadblocks to keep people penned in their own health authority regions (the mounties are pushing back). Ferry travel to the Island is restricted. Albertans are lassoed and dragged back across the mountains.

Even clean little NS has been sullied. Word is that a single BBQ event hosted by some jerks just back from T.O. ignited a fire of infections. Now Halifax is sealed off and shuttered for a month. Cases per day in the last week grew 84%.

Flights from India and Pakistan are grounded. That part of the world is a global threat. Not only do we have mutant strains of Covid, but now there are mutated mutant versions. So 13 months into this collective nightmare it, well, sucks.

How will all of this affect social behavior?

Not well. Everybody’s fed up. That riot against curfews in Montreal the other clearly showcased public anger. Look at the reaction in Ontario last week after the government said police had the right to stop people at random and demand IDs and addresses. Even the cops were disgusted. Clearly things are starting to fray at the edges.

WFH? The big push to vax everyone a month ago looked like it held promise for workplaces to reopen and employees to shower and find their pants. But not so fast. It’s seriously in doubt whether major corps will be repopulating downtown towers at all in 2021.

Now combine these things – a neverendum pandemic, repressive governments, shuttered offices, small business destruction plus anti-social urgings – with a federal budget that did nothing to stop aggressive-nesting real estate mania and a central bank frozen in the Covid headlights and we get… what?

Confusion. As this pathetic blog pointed out earlier in the week, all the logic suggests a housing market about to cool even as financial markets continue to rise. Way more listings will increase supply while insane prices and the higher stress test dampen demand at the same time wide scale inoculation promises a return to normalcy. Rational people would conclude the bubble then starts to leak. Seriously.

But with the Covid comeback comes emotion. Social distancing is more than a health measure – it’s a metaphor for what this mutating little bug has done to civilization. The retreat from cities to the burbs and far beyond is a manifestation. A new bank poll reinforces that. BMO just found almost 90% of newbie buyers in BC and Ontario are searching in the suburbs or hick hinterland cities. Only a relative handful are shopping for city properties (so a recent 80% surge in Toronto condo sales tells you who the buyers are – investors).

The bank also found house lust is as strong as ever. Almost two-thirds say purchasing the house they want is more important, “than having money left over each month.” The poor kids. They know not what they seek.

Even the dude running the Bank of Canada has a warning. “We are seeing some signs of extrapolative expectations and speculative behaviour,” Tiff Macklem said Wednesday. “Our concern … is that against a background of rapid price increases, people will extrapolate. They will expect that those price increases will continue indefinitely and they will overstretch to buy houses. That would be a mistake.”

In fact the Tiffer joins most financial observers in knowing how this all may end. This week, for example, the CEO of National Bank warned that regulators must (a) stop allowing blind auctions and (b) encourage buyers not to waive conditions for a home inspection or financing. If the market isn’t slowed, he added, it will implode. “The bursting of a speculative bubble in this segment of the economy would have very negative social and economic consequences.”

Will Covid 3.0 ignite housing further, inflame prices in the far reaches of suburbia, make it harder for employers to regain offices, destroy the client base of city businesses, discredit governments, ratchet up the debt of an entire gen and set the stage for an inevitable correction?

That’s scary.

Or is this the new normal?

That’s terrifying.

Have a great weekend.

About the picture: “This is Mouse, my beloved Maltese,” writes Grace, in Burnaby. “He loves romping in the snow even if it’s taller than him. He looks grumpy due to heavy snowballs on his hair.  Love your blog, read it every day. Learned a ton. Thank you! Keep up the good work Mr. Turner.”

139 comments ↓

#1 AKPOW on 04.23.21 at 2:13 pm

TORONTO AND VAN REAL ESTATE WILL TANK – Followed closely by Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia has had some of the best real estate movement to date.

#2 Billy Buoy on 04.23.21 at 2:22 pm

It’s all going perfectly according to the grand plan.

Gonna need a re-set don’t you think if this goes on another year don’t you think?

#3 BCpaul on 04.23.21 at 2:28 pm

How can the govt. stop the house price increases when the housing market is the only thing propping the economy?

#4 Dogman01 on 04.23.21 at 2:30 pm

Good stuff on Housing bubble and risk to overall economy and assets. Also interesting Tax Ideas.

Housing shock could upend Canadian asset values: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/housing-shock-could-upend-canadian-asset-values-wolf-1.1593970

“Housing is becoming a dominant player in GDP in a way that is dangerous”, Wolf said in an interview Thursday, noting Spain, Ireland and Greece had housing-dependent economies just before the financial crisis.

#5 IHCTD9 on 04.23.21 at 2:31 pm

Trudeau’s inaction is destroying Canada.

#6 vanislewally on 04.23.21 at 2:35 pm

the race between the variants and the vaccines appears to have been won by the variants.. “may you live in interesting times…”

#7 Penny Henny on 04.23.21 at 2:39 pm

#120 Sail Away on 04.23.21 at 1:05 pm
#117 Faron on 04.23.21 at 12:29 pm
///////////////

Troll vs Troll

#8 TurnerNation on 04.23.21 at 2:40 pm

More on the Economic Shutdowns.

–Some say that Kanada and Australia are the ‘test zones’ for all of this.
There’s a reason why those two haven’t any real ‘re-opening plans’. Hint Hint.

Sounds about right. That stupid leaked document did say Transition to UBI in Q2 ?
WHAT PART ABOUT INFINITE LOCKDOWS IS NOT CLEAR? Wait till the wintertime shutdowns.

.The Public Health Agency of Canada now says lockdowns will need to remain in place throughout the summer unless 75% of adults have a single dose or 20% have their second dose and that masking must continue even after those numbers are reached. (twitter.com) https://twitter.com/anthonyfurey/status/1385617791924019201

.B.C. considers using roadblocks to discourage people from leaving their health authority region (bc.ctvnews.ca)

—-
—-Full hospitals? From Quebec:

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2021/04/19/des-lits-occupes-par-des-gens-presque-sans-symptomes?
Beds occupied by almost symptom-free people
Published April 19, 2021 at 3:33 PM

.Millions of Western Australians are plunged into a three-day lockdown after TWO local cases of coronavirus with businesses forced to shut and Anzac Day services cancelled (dailymail.co.uk)

.Perth will enter a 3 day lockdown after 1 community case was detected (9news.com.au)

.Five-hour ambulance delays outside hospitals (due to health issues exacerbated by lockdowns) a ‘public health disaster’ (Victoria, Australia) (theage.com.au)

#9 Dan in Nanaimo on 04.23.21 at 2:45 pm

The FED and CB’s have our backs as they continue to print into oblivion. By this measure, all markets can only go up as price discovery, now archaic, is meaningless.

Financialization – the good, bad, and ugly – is the #1 export/import everybody digs the most.

Embrace the new dystopia… it’s not that bad.

#10 Suhail on 04.23.21 at 2:48 pm

The dog really looks grumpy!!
I can’t understand why the government doesn’t close the whole country for one month. They should have done that last April. Now it will be more painful to do it. :-(

#11 Handsome Ned on 04.23.21 at 2:49 pm

Garth just gave us the bad news. I’ve got some goodnews to cheer everyone up; Premier Horgan just cut me a cheque for 500 dollars.

#12 Linda on 04.23.21 at 2:51 pm

Poor Mouse! Looks like he was left to accumulate snowballs in his fur:)

The fact that police forces are disgusted by the measures to stop & question people at random tells me how ineffectual our government is. Good for them to tell the government they won’t be a party to such measures. That having been said, it is far past time for our so called leadership to pull their socks up & stop pandering to those who whine about having to wear a mask or proclaim they won’t vaccinate. This is about public health. Unless someone has a doctor’s note exempting them from 1) wearing a mask or 2) being vaccinated for actual medical reasons – not personal preference – then all citizens should both wear a mask & be vaccinated. Enforce that, rather than demand the police question people as to where they are going & why because you don’t want to be seen as the one who drew the line.

If someone demands their ‘right’ to not wear a mask or be vaccinated for reasons other than medical ones, said folks should then be registered so that if they 1) infect others or 2) become sick from the virus they refuse to be vaccinated against are 1) billed for the health care costs including funeral expenses for those they have infected & 2) are billed for any medical treatment relating to the virus should they fall ill themselves.

As for the production of vaccines within Canada, past time for the government to invest $ to ensure that we are no longer reliant on business or other countries to provide what we require. If the government were at all serious about containing health care costs, funding & running a facility to ensure various medicines are available to our health care system is a far better use of taxpayer dollars than handing out literal billions in CERB funds to all & sundry, regardless of whether they actually met any of the qualifications to receive it.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.21 at 2:55 pm

@#4 IHCTD9
“Trudeau’s inaction is destroying Canada.”

+++++

“We, ah, ah we will ah, continue to ah, ummm, errr ah, We will continue to monitor, ah, the, ah, situation and ah , errr, act accordingly”

I feel better every time he shows up at a presser.
Our Leaders are on it.

#14 Humbled ◇ Broke on 04.23.21 at 3:02 pm

Covid is very good at killing things, especially politicians reputations.

#15 TurnerNation on 04.23.21 at 3:15 pm

It’s always amazing how cities, countries get shut down because ‘someone decided to have fun’.
YET all the truck drivers, pilots, Air Crew who are exempt from quarrantine:
A. never seem to get sick and
B. never seem to get anyone else sick.

Or if they do it’s not the front page news.

If you ask around you’ll find dozens of “hair professionals” and Fitness instructors, all whom have been “working from home” for many months. Their clients keep returning because…nobody is sick.
Not to mention the real wanton partiers (not the front page news ones).

History has proven that when government shuts down business it simply goes underground.

……
Meanwhile in USA….are you getting that idea that “Covid policy” really means Reset/Communism policy?

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/sandy-springs-opens-concert-series-with-no-covid-restrictions/3H433RCBHNCRLGNYCAUJSSSD2U/

#16 Concerned Citizen on 04.23.21 at 3:17 pm

S&P 500 now up over 23% and counting from pre-COVID all-time highs, and up ~110% since the start of 2016 (just over 5 years).

How much more will the central banks pump these asset bubbles? Is there anything that could possibly see asset prices decline when those with the money printers seem hell-bent on them hyper-inflating despite the consequences?

I honestly think it’s different this time. Asset prices have been nationalized – the days of corrections and bear markets are over. The central bank “wealth effect” reigns supreme, forever and ever. If you think wealth equality is bad now, just wait. They’re doing their absolute best to destroy the middle class. There will be a small group of haves, and a large majority of have nots. All in the name of pumping asset bubbles.

To say the country has lost its way is an understatement. I don’t recognize Canada anymore.

#17 Habitt on 04.23.21 at 3:22 pm

Covid has exposed plenty. There will be change. Some will like others not. Entrepreneurs will follow client base and others will step up. Not so terrifying but could be massive change. It’s not different this time. WFH ain’t going anywhere.

#18 45north on 04.23.21 at 3:24 pm

talking about the restrictions Ontario imposed on interprovincial travel

Mark Sutcliffe: And it underscored that while Ottawa is only a four-hour drive from Queen’s Park, it sometimes seems as far away as the Ingenuity helicopter on Mars.

basically Queen’s Park doesn’t understand how closely Ottawa and Gatineau are linked. Probably because Queen’s Park is in Toronto.

#19 45north on 04.23.21 at 3:25 pm

How will all of this affect social behavior?
Not well. Everybody’s fed up. That riot against curfews in Montreal the other day clearly showcased public anger. Look at the reaction in Ontario last week after the government said police had the right to stop people at random and demand IDs and addresses. Even the cops were disgusted. Clearly things are starting to fray at the edges.

We’re at the limit. It’s been over a year. I’m sympathetic to Doug Ford and Christine Elliot. They get up-to-date reports on hospital beds and look for ways to preserve health care but tolerance for more shutdowns is fading.

The US is ahead of us by three months but they are just now starting to see a decline in percent positive tests. If Canada follows the same pattern, it’ll be August before we start to see a decline in percent positive tests.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa

#20 Leftover on 04.23.21 at 3:28 pm

All real estate is local and most real estate regulation is provincial.

Where do provinces and municipalities get a lot of revenue? Housing, the higher the number of sales and prices, the better. Don’t blame Trudeau for the lack of action.

Provinces could make changes to their real estate services acts to ban blind auctions and force sellers to pay for independent inspections, two regulations that would actually do something good without distorting the market.

But there’s the obvious conflict of interest that prevents them from doing it, even (or especially) in that socialist paradise, British Columbia.

#21 Faron on 04.23.21 at 3:32 pm

That’s scary.

Or is this the new normal?

That’s terrifying.

LEAPing into inflation. Yay.

Thanks for the cheery sentiment Garth :-/. Have a good weekend all.

#22 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.23.21 at 3:43 pm

“In BC the province is actually musing about RCMP roadblocks to keep people penned in their own health authority regions…”

EXACTLY!

STAY THE HELL AWAY ALL YOU SLIMY PATHOGENS FROM THE GTA!

Because of the narcissistic behaviour of Gta psychopaths, your hospitals are full and now you’re trying to send people to OUR hospitals, taking up space that WE may need:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hospitals-patient-transfers-unprecedented-number-covid-19-pandemic-1.5995499

YOU DON’T BELONG IN COTTAGE COUNTRY, IDIOTS!

WE DO NOT NEED YOU!

We are organizing and preparing to take action against city-dwellers who come up here in 2021.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

2021 cottage season is TOAST!

Get over yourselves, you selfish jerks!

#23 Rinse and Repeat on 04.23.21 at 3:43 pm

There will not be any cooling or breathers for this market as the parabolic increases maintain their trajectory. When the apparent ‘slow down’ was brought up here a few days ago, I warned that the travel restrictions would bring about a new surge in housing prices in the burbs and six. Why wouldn’t it – the rationale for the the first flood of urban refugees last Spring remains valid today as nothing has fundamentally changed. Millennials want kids and space, restrictions are in place, interest rates remain low, the economy is booming, and WFH is not going anywhere.

But….prices have gone up 100% in the last few years in the stix that the real value is back in the core cities. In a few months to a few years, all those urban refugees are going to realize that they spent a million dollars for a house in the middle of nowhere with no amenities and crappy schools. And this will be a pandemic of buyers remorse!

#24 Rosco on 04.23.21 at 3:45 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#25 Brett in Calgary on 04.23.21 at 3:58 pm

There isn’t a lot of positive news in the MSM, but for what it is worth coronaviruses are extremely seasonal meaning less and less virus as the spring progresses regardless of mutations.

More good news, or at least better news?

https://www.google.ca/search?q=canada+covid+stats

Compare the maximum of the case/death curves for wave 2 (Jan 1-8). They almost overlap. Now look at our current wave (Apr 9-16) keeping in mind that deaths are lagging indicator.

Perhaps our thirsty underwear vaccination program is working. Wouldn’t that be nice… and follow the science for a change.

#26 Guelph Guru on 04.23.21 at 3:58 pm

We need a great reset to set things right after these lockdowns. A fresh start.
Have heard Florida is doing well even without lockdowns.
I’m so confused.

#27 Ponnaps on 04.23.21 at 3:59 pm

I dont see how people who’ve committed significant financial and lifestyle changes by flocking to the suburbs and buying exorbitant properties will want to come back to work even if downtown offices reopen.. corporates will be forced to listed to their employees esp since successive surveys have shown upwards of 70% prefer the current WFH arrangement.. theres always the threat of attrition and loss of talent that will cause corporates to listen.. from the looks of it, mainly people managers left rudderless without being able to see people and micromanage them which is most of their work who want to physically be in office.. but the world has already been moving towards self managed teams and the last 1yr has shown things have worked just fine..
downtown real estate will be muted for a long time only inhabited by singles and career driven couples, if at all..
there will be no receding of suburban prices merely by change in consumer behavior or some sort of ennui being portended… people who are upgrading will continue pushing up prices at the upper end of the property ladder.. first time home buyers we should all be worried for.. cant imagine committing to a 600k+ mortgage that early in life and nothing to show for it in terms of appreciation whenever they plan to upgrade or cash out

#28 Trojan House on 04.23.21 at 4:04 pm

Stop testing = pandemic over.

Yes, it must be all those partiers. In Ottawa, there were 44 total cases linked to outbreaks from a private social event meanwhile in workplace related outbreaks, there were 173 total cases.

https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/daily-covid19-dashboard.aspx

#29 Stone on 04.23.21 at 4:05 pm

#11 Linda on 04.23.21 at 2:51 pm
Poor Mouse! Looks like he was left to accumulate snowballs in his fur:)

The fact that police forces are disgusted by the measures to stop & question people at random tells me how ineffectual our government is. Good for them to tell the government they won’t be a party to such measures. That having been said, it is far past time for our so called leadership to pull their socks up & stop pandering to those who whine about having to wear a mask or proclaim they won’t vaccinate. This is about public health. Unless someone has a doctor’s note exempting them from 1) wearing a mask or 2) being vaccinated for actual medical reasons – not personal preference – then all citizens should both wear a mask & be vaccinated. Enforce that, rather than demand the police question people as to where they are going & why because you don’t want to be seen as the one who drew the line.

If someone demands their ‘right’ to not wear a mask or be vaccinated for reasons other than medical ones, said folks should then be registered so that if they 1) infect others or 2) become sick from the virus they refuse to be vaccinated against are 1) billed for the health care costs including funeral expenses for those they have infected & 2) are billed for any medical treatment relating to the virus should they fall ill themselves.

As for the production of vaccines within Canada, past time for the government to invest $ to ensure that we are no longer reliant on business or other countries to provide what we require. If the government were at all serious about containing health care costs, funding & running a facility to ensure various medicines are available to our health care system is a far better use of taxpayer dollars than handing out literal billions in CERB funds to all & sundry, regardless of whether they actually met any of the qualifications to receive it.

———

Solution: Vaccine passports. Bring it on. It’s working very well in Israel pushing the anti-vaxers anti-maskers to get their shot. I’m sure it will be coming to the US shortly. I hope it happens here too. Don’t want to get your vaccine? Be excluded. It’s very good by me. I’m not interested in catering to those dimwits.

#30 binky barnes on 04.23.21 at 4:10 pm

This is when the PM PM (Mr. Justin Trudeau) will show his true greatness my young friends. He has been consulting, deliberating, debating, plotting, contemplating, and even thinking about what to do in order to get this country back on the rails. It has not been easy, as you can surely imagine. it has caused him sleepless nights, and even a grey hair or two.

But in short order the greatest leader in the history of the free world (yes, you read that correctly….in the history of the free world!) will unveil has plan for this country. Has he let Canada down before?

So grab a cold Labatt’s 50 or a Molson Golden and enjoy the weekend. The PM PM has it all under control.

BB

#31 Fake news on 04.23.21 at 4:15 pm

#25 Guelph Guru on 04.23.21 at 3:58 pm
We need a great reset to set things right after these lockdowns. A fresh start.
Have heard Florida is doing well even without lockdowns.
I’m so confused.

_______________________

Of course you are confused. You believed all of the rhetoric about how bad it was there because you wanted to believe how bad Donald Trump was. .. Don’t blame yourself for your naivety. Common mistake made by tens of millions like yourself!

At least you admitted the error of your ways. Only 78 million more to go.

#32 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.23.21 at 4:17 pm

#26 Ponnaps on 04.23.21 at 3:59 pm
《》… corporates will be forced to listed to their employees esp since successive surveys have shown upwards of 70% prefer the current WFH arrangement.
================
Respectfully,clearly your exposure to the corporate decision making process is severely limited, more like “wishful thinking ” .
I am/was involved in that decision making process for a long time ( roughly 2 decades) in the corporate world ( 200 mil to 5 billions plus yearly revenues ) and I can tell you that it is all about the bottom line.
Don’t buy into the HR satisfaction surveys and the whole ” we want our employees to be happy” messaging ,it is all marketing for suckers( sorry ,ahem : valuable employees) to be enticed to work more and feel good about it. OP and EBITDA is what makes the decision.
Based on the WFH true productivity data there is a reason why Google ,Microsoft and a whole bunch of other have decided to bring their people back into the office. You may see a progressive transition back into the office over the next 1.5 years tops.

#33 red falcon on 04.23.21 at 4:20 pm

As usual the sheeple has spoken and wants debt up the wazoo. Real estate has been an investing debt trap, and the sheeple will be sheared for it. Bet on it.

#34 will on 04.23.21 at 4:40 pm

hey what happened to “flatten the curve”? Or did we do that already?

#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.23.21 at 4:43 pm

WFH or WFW.
That will be the question.
Again, Mr. Market in his/her/its wisdom will decide.
The company which choses the right mix of WFH/WFW will come out ahead.
Remember the assembly line was quite a game changer, particularly for the Auto industry.
But you still needed
crafts people and people with ideas and passion.

#36 espressobob on 04.23.21 at 4:45 pm

It’s true, many don’t care anymore while the tennis court across from my address is full. Defiance is growing by the day. Arrivals and departures are still occurring at Pearson. The lunatic fringe?

Just get Vaxxed and ignore the noise. Hopefully that effort won’t go in vain if an unknown variant appears and proves resistant to existing vaccines.

Won’t that be fun…

Roll up your sleeve anyways.

#37 vancouver help on 04.23.21 at 4:48 pm

Hi Garth,

A little update RCMP are stopping people at random and demand IDs and addresses it started yesterday on the #1 highway and BC Ferries is a roadblock where campers get sent back and people turned away but in BC we did not make a peep unlike Ontario.

#38 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 4:56 pm

#11 Linda on 04.23.21 at 2:51 pm

Not bad a idea, but I don’t think it goes far enough…

They should also be held criminally liable, have their children placed in foster care, have their assets seized, and they themselves should be removed from society and placed in government facilities.

And that’s if they refuse to wear a mask.

If they for any reason, including medical, refuse the vaccine, well, they should be forcefully jabbed anf if they resist, the use of deadly force would be authorized.

#39 ts on 04.23.21 at 5:00 pm

#25 Guelph Guru on 04.23.21 at 3:58 pm

Have heard Florida is doing well even without lockdowns.
I’m so confused.

*************

Yes! In Arizona as well. Have cousin living there who says it’s business as usual; everything back to normal. Everything opened – no masks required.

#40 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.23.21 at 5:14 pm

Don’t mind me, I mumble to myself a lot….

#41 Dolce Vita on 04.23.21 at 5:17 pm

Riots or not, not everyone in La Belle Province has lost their sense of humour.

This from Le Journal de Montréal:

https://i.imgur.com/x3z91cs.png

No one does double entendre like Les Canadiennes.

————————

Cheer up Garth.

It will be over soon enough.

#42 Faron on 04.23.21 at 5:21 pm

#30 Fake news on 04.23.21 at 4:15 pm

You’re a fool. The COVID death rate in the US was one of the highest globally despite an advanced healthcare system and very early knowledge of the virus. People continue to die there at twice the rate of deaths here in Canada. Biden inherited this from Trump. All Trump had to do was act with consistent leadership and support and he failed to do anything but sow false hope (open by easter) divisiveness by making his medical leaders political footballs and promote wack-job cures (hydroxychloroqine, injected disinfectant, REGENERON, “maybe shine some light in there” etc.) as hawked by the Alex Joneses and MyPillow Mavens of the world. He was crushed in the election for good reason. Get over it.

#43 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 5:21 pm

#28 Stone on 04.23.21 at 4:05 pm

That’s a fantastic idea!

The digital ID could then be utilized to implement a social credit score system, similar to the one in China.

I hear Trudeau is a big fan of Xi.

#44 RyYYZ on 04.23.21 at 5:22 pm

So, am I the only one a little alarmed by our Prime Minister’s pledge to reduce Canada’s carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2030? It seems a little… ambitious, let’s say.
Just grabbed the first link from google:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-climate-emissions-40-per-cent-1.5997613

#45 Penny Henny on 04.23.21 at 5:29 pm

Just got vaxxed and not even 5 minutes later I was craving a beer. So nothings changed.

#46 espressobob on 04.23.21 at 5:38 pm

#37

Frank Zappa once quoted ” stupidity is amusing but ignorance is not”.

Tend to agree.

#47 Pasha on 04.23.21 at 5:39 pm

#43 RyYYZ

If I announced I had a planet to reduce the water level of your flooded basement rumpus room by 45% in the next nine years would you consider it…ambitious?

Zero is where its got to be, and the sooner the better.

#48 Dolce Vita on 04.23.21 at 5:40 pm

Italia Travel Tip:

In 2 days time Italia will begin to open up in steps to July (with current cases and deaths I have no idea why, but WTF, let ‘er rip I say – PIG SICK of it all like everyone else on Planet Earth).

So if you have plans to travel to Italia between now and then, a roadmap out at what opens up and when, by La Repubblica, interactive, click an icon and get more details – the icons self explanatory and do not translate, the details do:

https://lab.repubblica.it/2021/riaperture-decreto-aprile-il-calendario-fino-a-luglio/?ref=RHTP-BH-I297139005-P2-S1-T1

To find out the Regional Zone colors go to Gov Italia site, click on a Region you will be visiting and you get what you can and cannot do, what’s open or not, etc. (above roadmap shows limits to Zona Rossa Regions, below explains it):

https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/domande-frequenti-sulle-misure-adottate-dal-governo/15638?gclid=Cj0KCQjw4ImEBhDFARIsAGOTMj96QsHi2u5fHWAHv0620rs2D5v30u_E6ZiFaYRS4eivICT92aSAb7EaAoAAEALw_wcB

And yes, it’s warming up in Italia Canada. Low to mid 20’s now, finally.

https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-temperature-fuori-le-maniche-corte-scaldata-imminente-con-picchi-di-26c-le-regioni-pi-calde-095507

———————

End of July off to Paestum. 3rd week in Sept go watch AC Milan at San Siro – hopefully by then max 25% stadium seating limit lifted (75.923 seats total).

Cannot come soon enough for me.

#49 -=withwings=- on 04.23.21 at 5:52 pm

This week, for example, the CEO of National Bank warned that regulators must (a) stop allowing blind auctions and (b) encourage buyers not to waive conditions for a home inspection or financing

Right because the bank(s) can’t simply state “we wont finanace contracts without an inspection attached”.

@#4 IHCTD9
Trudeau’s inaction is destroying Canada.
Yeah we need a law against people doing stupid things. Surely a conservative government (like Ford’s) would have taken care of this problem by now!

@#14 Turner nation
If you ask around you’ll find dozens of “hair professionals” and Fitness instructors, all whom have been “working from home” for many months. Their clients keep returning because…nobody is sick.

There are many cases of hair cutters and fitess centers being ground zero. One gym in QC with ‘individual lessons’ only infected ovber 100 people and killed at least one 40 yr old.

@#18


The US is ahead of us by three months but they are just now starting to see a decline in percent positive tests.

They are more like 1 month or less ahead of us. They are not exaclty all on board with vaccinnes or any controls, so there reduction is slowing down. Florida state passed a law making it illegal to have a mask mandatory law anywhere in the state. Not surprisingly they are at 10+% positive rate and about 100 deaths a day. To the guy who posted about life in Florida a few days ago, it’s OK those 100 deaths a day aren’t anyone you know. Meanwhile the libtards over in California are at 1.2% positivy and are almost done. A better model is the UK, if we stick with the social/masks/reduced services we can be very open this summer. OR we can do the Florida “muh freedom!” thing and take a lot longer to get there.

@#30 Fake news
Of course you are confused. You believed all of the rhetoric about how bad it was there because you wanted to believe how bad Donald Trump was. .. Don’t blame yourself for your naivety. Common mistake made by tens of millions like yourself!

It isn’t fake news that Florida is one of the worse states, and even with vacinnes, not getting on the path to getting better. It’s data. Facts. They did manage to have less than 500 deaths last week, so there is that.

@#38
Yes! In Arizona as well. Have cousin living there who says it’s business as usual; everything back to normal. Everything opened – no masks required.

We could do that in Canada tomorrow. Just open, done. Back to normal. Arizona’s death rate from Covid is second (NY #1) in the USA . Is that normal?

#50 Sail Away on 04.23.21 at 5:53 pm

#26 Ponnaps on 04.23.21 at 3:59 pm

I dont see how people who’ve committed significant financial and lifestyle changes by flocking to the suburbs and buying exorbitant properties will want to come back to work even if downtown offices reopen.. corporates will be forced to listed to their employees esp since successive surveys have shown upwards of 70% prefer the current WFH arrangement

———-

Yes, tricky situation.

My firm has resolved this with a innovative item available only at the office.

We call it a ‘job’. Seems popular so far. It’s possible everyone’s just here for the free coffee…

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.21 at 5:55 pm

@#40 Dolce

https://i.imgur.com/x3z91cs.png

++++

Good one.

#52 Dolce Vita on 04.23.21 at 5:56 pm

Canada:

I do not know what to tell you about these travel restrictions. Italia had them in Mar, Apr last year where you could not travel from 1 Region to another unless an essential service.

Not fun at all.

On the flip side, Health Canada hasn’t A CLUE in NEAR HALF OF ALL CASES SO FAR as to the source of infection:

https://i.imgur.com/i6ZEewR.png

So I wonder about these travel restrictions if they will do any good (save NS and the guest appearance by the Trauma BBQ Typhoid Marys)?

https://i.imgur.com/i6ZEewR.png

Not always the fault of the foreign Mary Mallon devils, sometimes a look see in the mirror just as helpful.

Still, I hope travel restrictions work out for you Canada.

#53 Linda on 04.23.21 at 5:57 pm

#37 ‘When’ – There is a difference from choosing not to be vaccinated as opposed to not being vaccinated due to doctors orders. As for putting anti-vaxxers into prison, the point is to not provide support to those who refuse to vaccinate out of choice rather than necessity. I admit to wanting to jab these antivax idiots with so many needles they’d resemble a porcupine. Presumably they’d require shots for mumps, measles, whooping cough & the like in addition to Covid. May as well clear the slate & ensure the general population is protected from their wanting to be a Darwin Awards contender.

#54 Doug t on 04.23.21 at 6:02 pm

” have a great weekend ” LOL LMAO

#55 Bob Dog on 04.23.21 at 6:08 pm

Tiff Macklem is a member of Al Qeada . Or at least he should be .

#56 Another Deckchair on 04.23.21 at 6:10 pm

@43 RyYYZ:

All political “hot air”. Read the following, if you want an opinion of what’s happening from 3 scientists involved in “Net Zero”

https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368

Sigh. Trudeau’s pledges are hollow, I’d expect.

#57 Steven Rowlandson on 04.23.21 at 6:10 pm

Garth if you think this farce is more fun than a barrel of monkeys just wait until the bubonic plague breaks out and goes airborne just like in the 14th century in Europe.
You have seen nothing yet.

#58 Cici on 04.23.21 at 6:10 pm

#25 Guelph Guru on 04.23.21 at 3:58 pm
We need a great reset to set things right after these lockdowns. A fresh start.
Have heard Florida is doing well even without lockdowns.
I’m so confused.

____________________________________________

Probably due to a higher percentage of peeps vaxed. The Québec experiment is proving to be very encouraging. More and more people being vaxed every single day, with lower death rates and less severe new infections among those vaxed, including and especially the over 80 crowd.

Needless to say, I’m quite satisfied with the way the CAQ is handling the situation.

#59 Pull a Warren on 04.23.21 at 6:12 pm

How is it that Socks can sport a fresh First Nations tat in this age? I thought that was no better than black face. Next he’ll be telling us he has some ancient DNA like green Lizzie across the border. Did I miss something when it comes to white privilege?

#60 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.23.21 at 6:19 pm

STAY IN THE GTA ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

If you are even thinking of coming up north this weekend, you are truly a sociopath.

You are useless parasites.

We don’t need you.

There will be no 2021 cottage season.

Accept reality. Get over it.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#61 Donut theory next on 04.23.21 at 6:22 pm

#33 will

Yes, we have moved on from “flatten the curve”. I have recommended they now adopt the Donut Theory like here in Nanaimo. I don’t know how it works (neither do Nanaimo politicians), but my kids and I love the donuts in Port Alberni at the waterfront. Unfortunately our donut drive has been cancelled by Horgie. I suspect he felled a tree in Cathedral Grove to stop us Nanaimoites entering the West.

#62 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.23.21 at 6:22 pm

I love Cats! …and I’m strongly attracted to my kin.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.23.21 at 6:30 pm

#43 RyYYZ on 04.23.21 at 5:22 pm
So, am I the only one a little alarmed by our Prime Minister’s pledge to reduce Canada’s carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2030? It seems a little… ambitious, let’s say.
Just grabbed the first link from google:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-climate-emissions-40-per-cent-1.5997613
————–
No reason to be alarmed.
It’s true Biden is pushing this hard, but it’s time to face the truth.
Oil is on it’s way out, sooner or letter.
I heard a stat that oil related jobs in Canada are 1.5% of the total workforce. 25% in Alberta.
Whatever happened to diversification that’s being preached here religiously.
I heard solar panel installators are in demand.
Does not pay as much as the oil fields, but it’s a beginning.

#64 Bagels did it on 04.23.21 at 6:30 pm

#47 Sail Away

I hear you. We once had bagel Wednesday. Then we hit the 2008 financial crisis and had to cut back. One of my employees was so insulted that he left the company. He earned enough to buy 120,000 bagels a year back then, but the free one on Wednesday did it for him.

WFH only works for employees. Business owners never like it, but are forced into it or fear cancellation. If the employees were business owners, they would be/feel the same.

Wow, that’s two carbohydrate posts in one day for me!

#65 Grand Master D formerly known as DON on 04.23.21 at 6:36 pm

BC is locked down to 3 large regions. I can travel all over the Island…so nothing has really changed.

Stupid is still out and about.

#66 Concerned Citizen on 04.23.21 at 6:36 pm

#43 RyYYZ, speaking as someone who is very much in favour of the carbon tax (it’s the most conservative/economically efficient way of spurring emissions reductions), there is essentially a 0% chance we can reduce emissions by 40-45% by 2030. Over the last 20 years, despite all the gnashing of teeth around climate change, closing of coal plants in Ontario, etc, emissions have essentially been flat. Now, in 9 years, we’re going to reduce emissions by a huge amount? This forecast strains credulity.

Major carbon reductions will take hundreds of billions of investment, and those won’t happen overnight. Moreover with the population increasing bigly each year with high immigration levels, emissions per capita have to decrease that much more to compensate.

You can’t essentially ignore a problem for 40-50 years and then turn the world economy on a dime in 9 years. Not absent some wonder technologies like cheap nuclear fusion, cheap bio-plastics, etc.

I’m happy to be proven wrong. The carbon tax and dividend is a step in the right direction and I applaud the Liberals for bringing it in, but they shouldn’t be blowing smoke as to what is feasible. How about we hit a measly 10% reduction before we start talking about 40-45%.

#67 Hilroy on 04.23.21 at 6:37 pm

We’ll know this is behind us when fast food has a ‘Double Mutant Cheeseburger” on the menu.

#68 Faron on 04.23.21 at 6:37 pm

#58 Pull a Warren on 04.23.21 at 6:12 pm

AFAIK, if you have the permission of the artist, it’s okay. Obviously an appropriative risk and likely lifelong explanation.

#69 Stone on 04.23.21 at 6:38 pm

#42 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 5:21 pm
#28 Stone on 04.23.21 at 4:05 pm

That’s a fantastic idea!

The digital ID could then be utilized to implement a social credit score system, similar to the one in China.

I hear Trudeau is a big fan of Xi.

———

Live in fear, fool.

#70 sunburned canuck on 04.23.21 at 6:43 pm

Meanwhile all this is going on, NO punishment or even mention of it for China for inflicting a WAR on the world with an invisible enemy upon all of us. It now seems like the world has forgiven them and this is supposed to be NORMAL!
Things are so screwed up everywhere, and you have’nt seen nothing yet! The supply chain of products globally is entering a new phase of disfunction, shortages, higher freight rates, inflationary effects and massive stress on civilization. Factories that make great products cannot produce products due to all the consequences of COVID 19 and drastic labor shortages due to lockdowns and government stay-at-home incentives.
Thankfully, the world’s most powerful country is led by President Biden who has the vision and will see us through. Thank God for that.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.23.21 at 6:43 pm

Ok.
Get your shots in the States.
They’ve got plenty, because demand is leveling off at 27% fully waxed right now.
They have to give it away, otherwise it goes bad.
But, be carefull, getting a shot also has another meaning in the States.

#72 Grand Master D formerly known as DON on 04.23.21 at 6:46 pm

#33 will

Yes, we have moved on from “flatten the curve”. I have recommended they now adopt the Donut Theory like here in Nanaimo. I don’t know how it works (neither do Nanaimo politicians), but my kids and I love the donuts in Port Alberni at the waterfront. Unfortunately our donut drive has been cancelled by Horgie. I suspect he felled a tree in Cathedral

********************

You are restricted to Vancouver Island.

Unless they moved Port Alberni to the mainland you are all right. Are you talking about the donut place on the wharf?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-officials-announce-travel-restrictions-to-limit-covid-19-spread-1.5999366

#73 espressobob on 04.23.21 at 6:47 pm

This is a message to the anti vaxxers that feel they have a right based on an aborated mentalility to the detriment of the rest of us.

GROW UP!

#74 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 6:49 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#75 Dr V on 04.23.21 at 6:53 pm

124 Phylis

“Tanya contributed a great post. Having a similar starting point, it’s given me a wonderful 32 year old reference to compare against.”

Hi Phylis. what I find so strange about these GIC posts
are

1) The poster uses their (apparent) full proper name
2) They speak very matter-of-factly
3) They provide precise numbers. Often very precise.

It’s like they are ALL written by the SAME person.

And that’s…just…. creepy.

#76 rknusa on 04.23.21 at 7:03 pm

but the National CEO also said bubble? what bubble?

from the Globe

In Mr. Vachon’s view, Canada is “still pretty far from an excessive bubble, and even further from the bursting of it,” but he added: “Given how important it is, we don’t want to get there.”

#77 Nonplused on 04.23.21 at 7:21 pm

So what happens if this thing keeps mutating forever? Do we need a new shot every year like we do with the flu? Can they stick the new annual vaccines in with the flu shot?

Fortunately most viruses tend to evolve to less lethal versions over time. Unfortunately the way the do this is that more lethal mutations kill the hosts, which limits their spread. Eventually “survival of the fittest, virus version” leaves more non-lethal variants in the wild than lethal variants, but lots of people have to die to get there. Not good.

The forecast for recovery is not good, depending on the efficacy of the current vaccines against all these variants that keep popping up. The flu mutates every year too, but what have we got? 4 variants so far so by my math that means including the original there are 5 different identifiable types of covid out there right now and the vaccines are really only designed for the original, although they are probably better than nothing against the variants.

Part of the reason viruses can mutate so quickly is because of their numbers and reproduction rates. An infected person can have literally billions of viruses in their body all trying to reproduce daily. That is a lot of opportunity for rapid evolution. It’s a wonder that the immune system usually keeps up. It too is a wonder of nature.

Anyway, this is an unusually pessimistic comment even by my standards, but if the current vaccines are not efficient against the variants we might be closer to the beginning of this thing than the end. Sooner or later a combination of less lethal variants, vaccines, and the good ol’ immune system will bring this thing to and end but maybe it won’t be by the summer. We may have to adjust our expectations. Again.

————————————

Did anyone notice what happened at the gas pump? Carbon taxes. Ya I know they have been there for a while but low oil prices were hiding them. Fortunate timing. But gas around here has gone from $0.99/litre to $1.21/litre in relatively quick order. That’s added $20 to a fill for me. Thank goodness I don’t go anywhere but the liquor store these days. And it is just getting started, it’s “only” $30 per ton right now but it is slated to go to $170 per ton by 2030. It’s already high enough that it can be 100% of what I pay for fuel (natgas) when heating my home. So by 2030 the carbon tax could be 560% of what I pay for the gas? Isn’t anybody else outraged yet? What am I supposed to do, turn off the furnace and hot water tank and cook with charcoal? They are both already nearly 100% efficient so there isn’t much to do with that. I could blow some more insulation in the attic I suppose. But it already has R40.

And therein lies the reason why, IMHO, there wasn’t much in the way of new taxes in the budget. We already have up to 50% income taxes, and the stealth GST (carbon taxes) are going to well over 100% over the course of the next 9 years. My prediction is something will break well before then, but it is written down where you can read it that they intend to try.

Time to move south. It is too damn cold here to live with these sorts of fuel taxes.

One of my neighbors is preparing. He’s not only got a large solar array on the roof, but man does he have a lot of firewood. Stacks and stacks of it piled high between every 2 trees on the property. But he doesn’t have a dog and I don’t know if he is prepared to shoot so I think much of it will go missing.

I don’t have a wood fireplace, but it might be time to see about getting one installed. And solar. And banks of environmentally friendly lead-acid batteries. And maybe some of those little wind turbines. Not allowed by the home owner’s covenants but hey, desperate times call for desperate measures, so screw you HOA. Come and make me take them down!

I probably need a green house and an acre of potatoes too, but I can’t imagine what the water is going to cost. They have to pump that stuff in and if everyone starts doing it they will also have to upgrade all the pipes. I wonder if in the not too distant future we will need two water systems, one for drinking that gets filtered and treated, and a second carrying water straight from the river for irrigation. In 2030, potatoes will be too expensive to buy from the store, given all the carbon involved.

So ya, get out there and buy up some rural property and go off grid. There is more coming down the pipe than just covid. This is but a sample of what’s in store.

#78 Dr V on 04.23.21 at 7:22 pm

60 Donut – it’s all good on VI! all under one health authority, and nanaimo and Port are even under the same local health area which also includes cowichan and Oceanside. Donuts of the island unite!

#79 the Jaguar on 04.23.21 at 7:23 pm

Here is a very interesting discussion for parents and others looking for an interesting podcast this weekend.

I really enjoyed it and it explains a lot of what is going on in the world today, not just in schools. It’s an interview with an ‘anonymous’ high school teacher. He’s in the USA, but the lessons apply north of the border as well. It explains a lot of behaviour in the world today. For those looking for the view from the teachers….

https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/kunstlercast/KunstlerCast_343.mp3

#80 Cto on 04.23.21 at 7:30 pm

#46 Pasha

3.6 mm a year, that 36 cm in 100 years
8 inches since 1880
Flooded basements in 9 years???
Please!!!
Cut the hysteria!!!!

#81 Jake on 04.23.21 at 7:37 pm

I was off for groceries tonight around 4, for a city in lockdown, traffic tonight in my part of the T.O. burbs was as busy as pre-pandemic. Nothing like a year ago when the streets were empty. People fed up and likely breaking the rules. No wonder our cases are so high.

#82 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 7:37 pm

Nothing I said was anti-vax.

I’m anti-tyranny. Big difference.

Come back when you’re vaxed. – Garth

#83 Nonplused on 04.23.21 at 7:38 pm

#46 Pasha on 04.23.21 at 5:39 pm
#43 RyYYZ

If I announced I had a planet to reduce the water level of your flooded basement rumpus room by 45% in the next nine years would you consider it…ambitious?

Zero is where its got to be, and the sooner the better.

———————————————

It will never be zero until we have nuclear plants literally everywhere. But that brings a host of other problems that may well be lots worse.

#84 Lead Paint on 04.23.21 at 7:40 pm

#65 Concerned Citizen on 04.23.21 at 6:36 pm

Totally. I think everyone is rolling their eyes and saying ‘dream on’.

When has this government made anyone sacrifice or pay for anything, except future generations that can’t vote?

#85 Lumber on 04.23.21 at 7:43 pm

Because ‘Entitlement Psychopathy…’ Who else thinks this is now a real thing..? In NS we were trending towards 800 cases per day by mid-May without immediate countermeasures, all because some GTA folks thought the rules didn’t apply to THEM….

#86 rowdie on 04.23.21 at 7:44 pm

Enjoy reading your blog each day, and love the photo’s of the pooches and sometimes kitties. Have 2 cats that keep me sane. Anyhow, we are in interesting times, have to go one day at a time, mind what T2 says or not. Live in BC, lockdown in progress. Well, here we are.. waiting for the other shoe to drop to hear the next command from Comrade Horgan. The Summer will be an interesting one. In regards to the RE in Canada it will cool down, starting to in BC in some areas.

BOC better get their head turned around and raise the interest rates, buying bonds is not the way to to rally the economy. It only keeps the rates low… figure it out BOC!!!! Damage done.

Cheers…

#87 Sara on 04.23.21 at 7:47 pm

#33 will on 04.23.21 at 4:40 pm
“Hey what happened to “flatten the curve”? Or did we do that already?”
===============
#60 Donut theory next on 04.23.21 at 6:22 pm
#33 will

“Yes, we have moved on from “flatten the curve”. I have recommended they now adopt the Donut Theory like here in Nanaimo.”

===================

@#33 and #60

Attempts to “flatten the curve” happen EVERY TIME we have a new wave, so it is not a matter of doing it only once (speaking to you #33) and then done. Ontario and BC are both in the middle of a third wave, and what they are trying to do is flatten the curve of the third wave. This is why Ontario has a stay-at-home order for example.

#88 VladTor on 04.23.21 at 7:49 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#89 Flop... on 04.23.21 at 7:51 pm

#74 Dr V on 04.23.21 at 6:53 pm
124 Phylis

“Tanya contributed a great post. Having a similar starting point, it’s given me a wonderful 32 year old reference to compare against.”

Hi Phylis. what I find so strange about these GIC posts
are

1) The poster uses their (apparent) full proper name
2) They speak very matter-of-factly
3) They provide precise numbers. Often very precise.

It’s like they are ALL written by the SAME person.

And that’s…just…. creepy.

///////////////////////

Doc, I will help you out.

4) The first name and surname always start with the same letter.

In this case T.T.

That’s why famous people like me only have one name…

M46BC

#90 Nonplused on 04.23.21 at 7:56 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.23.21 at 6:30 pm

“Oil is on it’s way out, sooner or letter.”

Nope, it is not. It has too many other uses besides as a fuel source. There are too many to list. Everything from your asphalt shingles on the roof to the road to the bottles your juice and milk come in to the very chips in your computer and in most cases the keyboard and case of your computer, all petroleum products. Even a beach ball or Nerf gun is made from petroleum products. Gasoline and natural gas is at this point (and always was) nearly a byproduct. I suppose we could go back to flaring it but I don’t see how that helps.

So long as we need roads we need oil. Oh sure, you might say we could build the roads out of concrete, problem solved. Except making concrete emits more CO2 than making asphalt.

People need to stop drawing the future in crayon, using 6 year olds for the focus group providing input. That works when you are making a Star Wars movie but not when planning energy and resources. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Even to make a wind turbine you need a lot of oil. Resin, at least in those quantities, does not grow on trees. It comes from petroleum.

Look around a bit. Everything that isn’t steel, wood, wool, leather, or glass is a petroleum product. And even those products take some petroleum to make.

#91 Flop... on 04.23.21 at 7:59 pm

If I had to choose between an hour in the cottage with Justin Trudeau, or an hour in a car with Tiger Woods, I would choose an hour in a car with Tiger Woods driving.

I might have to get extracted from an upside down vehicle, but I figure it would be the less painful experience of the two…

M46BC

#92 Felix on 04.23.21 at 8:00 pm

Another revealing photo.

A dogawful mutt, face covered in blood.

Just attacked its low IQ human idolator, maybe a child?

Guilty as charged.

#93 AB on 04.23.21 at 8:00 pm

#21 Stone, #11 Linda
Well said. Refreshing to hear common sense these days.
Gives one hope. Thank you.

#94 Chameleon on 04.23.21 at 8:01 pm

Dog in the picture is a male?

I guess he’s into cross-dressing.

You live long enough you see it all.

#95 Ken on 04.23.21 at 8:06 pm

My green bank just sent me a letter advising me of an increase in transaction fees from a buck and a quarter to a buck ninety-five. Just a fifty-six percent increase. Makes the thirty percent increase in housing prices seem small…

#96 yvr_lurker on 04.23.21 at 8:19 pm

The “surprise” that is happening now is perfectly in line with what I suspected and commented on here many months ago. The variants and the potential for Covid to mutate essentially ANYWHERE in the world, will affect every little corner of the world unless one takes a view iike Australia and New Zealand of aiming for Covid zero (cutting off flights, and a very strict enforcement of quarantine by travelers). Even with that it would be challenging. Canada’s very lax border controls and very tardy response in cutting flights to India (where now travellers from India can simply come here indirectly from the USA) clearly shows the problem. There is still a likelihood that before we achieve something like heard immunity, there will be a variant that escapes the vaccine design and effectively what this will mean is that we may be in a new pandemic.

In 1918 we did not have the medical knowledge or vaccines to keep those inflected alive or provide some sort of protection from the masses (bad). However, we did not have the same global mobility then that we have now that will keep this going further with a higher risk.

On that cheery note, I will go walk my dog on the beach with something special to chill the anxiety that T2 now says is perfectly legal. To all, a good night.

#97 TMac on 04.23.21 at 8:22 pm

Imagine just a few months ago we were looking at the USA in awe thinking how foolish they were.
Well who is laughing now?
As they ramp their economy back up into overdrive we are going to continue the destruction of ours.

#98 VladTor on 04.23.21 at 8:43 pm

OK, Garth. I’m not complaining for sure. My message was more for you then for others for some reason. Regular people can regard opinion those doctor in wrong way.
You didn’t watch yet. Watch it when you have time – 26 min only interview. He’s telling by the way that developer(inventor) of this test which using for Covid 19 (he was talking with him directly) is not so good and why. Just think about this – test inventor not recommend using it by some reason (watch video). Problem probably is – we don’t have other tests. By now we have no choice!

#99 Greg Ellis on 04.23.21 at 8:44 pm

DELETED

#100 VladTor on 04.23.21 at 8:59 pm

DELETED

#101 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 9:07 pm

#68 Stone on 04.23.21 at 6:38 pm

#42 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.23.21 at 5:21 pm
#28 Stone on 04.23.21 at 4:05 pm

That’s a fantastic idea!

The digital ID could then be utilized to implement a social credit score system, similar to the one in China.

I hear Trudeau is a big fan of Xi.

———

Live in fear, fool.

‐—————

How ironic.

Your fear is enabling the government to do things you would have objected to before.

But carry on Karen.

#102 OttawaRetired on 04.23.21 at 9:09 pm

From personal experience today, wife and I were stopped at a OPP road block on the Manitoba/Ont border of the TransCanada highway. They wanted to know where we were coming from (our retirement property in Alberta), where we were going to (Ottawa our current home, which we sold two weeks ago – closing end of June), and wanted to see my Driver’s license as proof of where we lived.
All civil, no issues, but still a bit weird.

#103 Phylis on 04.23.21 at 9:15 pm

#88 Flop… on 04.23.21 at 7:51 pm
#74 Dr V on 04.23.21 at 6:53 pm
124 Phylis

“Tanya contributed a great post. Having a similar starting point, it’s given me a wonderful 32 year old reference to compare against.”

Hi Phylis. what I find so strange about these GIC posts
are

1) The poster uses their (apparent) full proper name
2) They speak very matter-of-factly
3) They provide precise numbers. Often very precise.

It’s like they are ALL written by the SAME person.

And that’s…just…. creepy.

///////////////////////

Doc, I will help you out.

4) The first name and surname always start with the same letter.

In this case T.T.

That’s why famous people like me only have one name…

M46BC
Xxxxxxxxxx
Well, I could post my numbers and name, but PP wouldn’t be very appealing.
Side note for all, did you know gic sales generate a commission for the seller?

#104 TW on 04.23.21 at 9:17 pm

I am from Eastern Ontario . Where there seems to be over represented by absolute uneducated MPP
MP’S.. thankfully this has not the case in municipal government.. good mayor…council. .. but Provincial and Federaly we look like effing Hillbillies…no offense to Hillbillies but J.C. these guys are the cream of the crop of not getting science .. .

#105 YVR Realta on 04.23.21 at 9:21 pm

Average East Vancouver special on 30 foot lot will be 2.65 million by 2025. Buy now if you can, hop aboard we going past the Moon.

#106 Bert on 04.23.21 at 9:21 pm

Commercial occupancy rates in many US cities that have been open for months remain at 25%. Also despite the fact that individual air travel has rebounded business travel remains near pandemic lows. It would seem businesses have cut these costs permanently. WFH continues to take deeper hold.

#107 greaterfool on 04.23.21 at 9:31 pm

Our PM has no clue what he is talking/doing, “budget will balance itself” tells all. I still remember the election campaign Harper had on radio “….who is he kidding?” but so what? he is elected, twice since then. who voted for him? It is our Canadians. You get what you voted for.

Oh, by the way, nobody will be responsible for having double variants virus here. Canadians are on ourselves.

The housing market. everyone, both buyer and seller, is actually quite vigilant. Everyone knows it is a big bubble, for a long time. But if you don’t join the game, you are a greaterfool; if you are the last one standing when the lights off, you are the greatestfool.

So just needs a trigger, a trigger that makes a large enough group of people believe the lights are going off, then the avalanche starts… Nothing will stop/change this, pray that you are not the last one standing……

#108 Paul on 04.23.21 at 9:40 pm

Garth, what about an article on precon – risks?

https://vimeo.com/535369446

#109 baloney Sandwitch on 04.23.21 at 9:40 pm

What were his parents thinking when they named him Tiff?
Anyways bubbles always burst, it is in their nature.

#110 Grand Master D formerly known as DON on 04.23.21 at 9:57 pm

#95 yvr_lurker on 04.23.21 at 8:19 pm

I had the same thought about 1918 and mobility.

Enjoy that walk!

#111 Mick McClean on 04.23.21 at 10:19 pm

The Tiffer figures buyers could “overstretch” in buying a house, that’s an understatement if I ever heard one. If you’re carrying a mortgage of $400,000 and the interest rate went up a full point you’re going to need an extra $200 a month. Living in a very modest early 60s semi in one of Toronto’s first planned burbs I pay $3600 plus $1500 for garbage and water. Then there’s hydro, gas, insurance and unforeseen maintenance and every single one of those things will be going up. Figure that’s an easy 3 months rent in a dedicated town home development near me which includes a swimming pool and other amenities. Think very carefully one bad decision can impact your life for years.

#112 Tyberious on 04.23.21 at 10:31 pm

Anti war/Anti tyranny/Anti forced jabbing with experimental gene therapy…all connected. The Military Industrial Complex has ‘matured’ to include Big Pharma. And the sheep are cheerleaders for their own enslavement. Cheers everyone!
I hear Pfizer is best…

#113 mike from mtl on 04.23.21 at 10:37 pm

I don’t know why after more than one year of this crap, this is somehow new information. In the northern hemisphere it is pretty much unheard of to have a respiratory illness in the middle of summer – likewise almost a given between Oct-Apr.

The lockdowns, masks and other temporary stupidity only defer the inevitable; in fact the most non-exposed populations are most at risk of a runaway situation. Real exposure and vaccination exposure is the only way out of this on a global scale – that’s years away.

Regarding WFH, that is the biggest game changer in the last two centuries. The cheapo bean counter corps would love nothing more than download all the costs of the workplace to their workers. Not to mention the added bonus of not restricted to hiring to those who can physically commute on a regular basis.

I personally hate 100% WFH but who knows the cost cutting HR creeps are thinking of the ‘new normal’.

#114 Stealth on 04.23.21 at 10:40 pm

Good evening,

Can you please define the following definitions typically referenced to convey a meaning:
1.Main Street (cdn vs us clarification as well.) for example Main Street in the US means regular investor while Wall Street refers to the rich.
Therefore what is Canadian specific meaning?

2. Bay Street (yes toronto financial districts ) how does it differ from Canadian definition of Main Street.

Thank you.
Have a great weekend as well.

#115 Franco on 04.23.21 at 10:42 pm

Was starting to feel optimistic that the end was in site for the defeat of the virus, but this double mutant virus is freaking me out.

#116 Gas man on 04.23.21 at 10:42 pm

46 Pasha on 04.23.21 at 5:39 pm
#43 RyYYZ

If I announced I had a planet to reduce the water level of your flooded basement rumpus room by 45% in the next nine years would you consider it…ambitious?

Zero is where its got to be, and the sooner the better
……….
Listen up, boy. You must get up right now and flip the main breaker into your house. Next get a wrench and find the nat gas shutoff, shut it off. Try adding some sugar if you own a gas tank. You will have to think up some other stuff to and get a few friends to join you. Only then will you have any chance of offsetting the boat i plan on touring the Caribbean for the next few years. Twin bigass 454’s. Makes slightly over 1mpg. (will prob make it all the way to south America). Like $500 a day in gas. Oh, i also just upgraded to a suburban, man does that thing eat gas too! You are Personally failing to save the planet unless you can offset the few tankers worth i am about to burn.

I was a “pollution” engineer (emissions monitoring) for a time. Co2 is a gas of life. Plant food. Fundamentally required for life. Period.
Calling it pollution is fraud.

Now grab that wrench and get to it!

#117 Bdwy on 04.23.21 at 10:58 pm

04 YVR Realta on 04.23.21 at 9:21 pm
Average East Vancouver special on 30 foot lot will be 2.65 million by 2025. Buy now if you can, hop aboard we going past the Moon…

………
Same lot oldtimer house down the block just went up with a seemingly new tactic. Set the ask at 300k over what could be considerd sane. 2.3m sold a hair over in 2 days. Moon it is.

#118 Garth's Son Drake on 04.23.21 at 11:24 pm

This was the risk that I was hoping would not materialize, but it has.

Unless the government extends stimulus, which it does not look to be have an appetite for anymore, I can’t see how things don’t go sideways. Yes, not everyone needs stimulus to survive but there is a pretty decent amount right now who do and 5-10% of consumers can have a big impact.

Forget Summer. Maybe by winter flu season there will be enough vaccines to slow this thing.

60+ million Pfizer already being procured by Canada for 3rd and forth shots in 2022 and 2023 which tells you what the anticipation is for this thing.

And when you think about it that timeline of a few more years makes a lot of sense when you see this virus evolving and mutating.

Also, anyone else notice cryto take a nosedive the last few days? This usually front runs equity markets. Surprise!

Enjoy the weekend watching uncle Dana’s live UFC event in Florida on TV. Unless you are retarded enough to show up in person. Should be a great super spreader event. The live gate tickets warn of possible “death” from attending and catching covid and it still sold out in minutes. 15k people. Supposedly Vegas is opening up in July. The show must go on.

#119 Trump Properties on 04.23.21 at 11:32 pm

Rounds of funding being handled by Steve Bannon to secure more capital for the wall being erected between Alberta and BC.

#120 mousey on 04.23.21 at 11:45 pm

Love the picture of Mouse! So, should I sell my small commercial building in a suburb of Vancouver? Been on the market for 6 months and only one real offer. Is work from home going to kill the need for office space?

#121 Bdwy on 04.23.21 at 11:59 pm

=withwings=- on 04.23.21 at 5:52 pm

This week, for example, the CEO of National Bank warned that regulators must (a) stop allowing blind auctions and (b) encourage buyers not to waive conditions for a home inspection or financing

Right because the bank(s) can’t simply state “we wont finanace contracts without an inspection attached
……
I would imagine that inspections are irrelevant to the lenders. They do their own appraisal. In the big markets the land value is usually way higher than the mortgage. Who gives a flip if the floor is slanty or the foundation has a crack or 2.

#122 MF on 04.24.21 at 12:14 am

New Normal….

https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/04/24/public-square/emirates-commences-iata-travel-pass-trials/866899/

#123 R on 04.24.21 at 12:15 am

96: It shows what a difference a good leader makes. T2 looked good compared to Orange Guy, not so much to a pro.

#124 Fortune500 on 04.24.21 at 12:15 am

New normal for real estate anyways. The Canadian Fed Put.

#125 Leo Trollstoy on 04.24.21 at 12:25 am

You can’t control a market or a virus any more than you can “control” a blizzard

#126 The West on 04.24.21 at 12:27 am

#76 Nonplused

“Time to move south to Texas”

I’m on it – so far so good. Last interview for an opening in Austin Tuesday morning.

Pray for me!

#127 No Left Turn on 04.24.21 at 12:28 am

#28 Stone on 04.23.21 at 4:05 pm
I’m not interested in catering to those dimwits.

If you think that you aren’t already ‘catering to those dimwits’; then you aren’t paying enough attention.

Keep right.
NLT

#128 Two-thirds on 04.24.21 at 12:31 am

For over a decade our pathetic blog has witnessed logic causing the housing market to take one step backwards while emotion makes it go two steps forward.

How long of the above happening until a new normal can be declared?

The market can (and has) stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or FOMO-free, in this case)

:(

#129 T-Rev on 04.24.21 at 12:50 am

Basic math of finance: A business or other asset is worth exactly the discounted value of its future cash flow. So these gigantic gains we’re seeing in every sector mean the market expects fat profits in the years ahead. But is that going to come from actual improvement in productivity, or simply from future inflation? Or are we in a hyperinflation environment already and we just can’t see it because we’re too close to it?

Place your bets….

#130 Al on 04.24.21 at 1:00 am


BC is locked down to 3 large regions. I can travel all over the Island…so nothing has really changed”

VI residents are now explicitly told not to go between cities. Not the case before. It’s changed.

#131 Steve French on 04.24.21 at 1:31 am

New Delhi is entering Mad Max Apocalypto territory…

maybe 20,000 people dying from Covid per day in India now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/indians-starve-as-covid-crisis-deepens/

“Hunger stalks India as country’s Covid crisis deepens”

A wider disaster is building, one that – if left unchecked – could start to engulf large parts of the country

#132 Km on 04.24.21 at 1:42 am

Well people just do not follow the rules. My neighbor goes to see his family all the time in White Rock has people over at least once a week and his brother in law cane in from Mexico. 99.9 percent certain no quarantine was involved. This was before the hotels. No one seems to care anymore, so it is going to just keep spreading.

#133 willworkforpickles on 04.24.21 at 4:14 am

I said it here 9 months ago then again six months ago and even 3 months ago again, this pandemic will run its 3 to 3 1/2 year course. The worst to be expected in the middle year. Before anyone ever breathed a word about variants i was on the subject of mutations and the/a slow mass vax culprit to allow them to proliferate.
Looking ahead isn’t a strong suite of governments or the assertive – nobody knows what’s coming crowd…a very very large crowd.

#134 BillyBob on 04.24.21 at 5:12 am

Diversity really is our strength. If you happen to be a novel virus.

Forget waves, here’s a cogent article positing a new pandemic. Much higher transmissibility, younger victims, etc.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-isnt-facing-a-third-wave-of-covid-we-are-facing-a-new-epidemic/

Gotta be careful with that karma stuff. Dolce was right. I was kinda wondering when smug Canada was going to feel the full weight of the pendulum swinging back the other way. Unlike some I take no pleasure in it, but it’s hardly surprising given the utterly incoherent “management” of the crisis. Fawning over Bonnie Henry’s shoes kind of sums it up.

Meanwhile things are opening up here in stages. Quite a reversal from a couple months ago when Ponzie was taking thinly-veiled satisfaction from the bad stats of the time in CZ. A bit sick, I thought at the time, it’s not a competition, but whatever.

https://praguemorning.cz/czech-republic-records-lowest-daily-rise-in-covid-19-cases-since-september/

Just enjoying a weekend in the countryside now that inter-regional travel is allowed again. Right as BC prepares to restrict travel even within the province. Congratulating oneself for not having been to the US in 5 years? Careful what you wish for.

#135 Phylis on 04.24.21 at 8:33 am

#113 Stealth on 04.23.21 at 10:40 pm
I think your first definition is too restrictive. Main street is more like consumer business and finance activity.

#136 Prince Polo on 04.24.21 at 8:41 am

#90 Flop… on 04.23.21 at 7:59 pm
If I had to choose between an hour in the cottage with Justin Trudeau, or an hour in a car with Tiger Woods, I would choose an hour in a car with Tiger Woods driving.

I might have to get extracted from an upside down vehicle, but I figure it would be the less painful experience of the two…

That’s gold, Jerry! Gold!!!! LOL. Kudos, sir Flop!

#137 Dharma Bum on 04.24.21 at 11:33 am

#46 Esspressobob

Frank Zappa once quoted ” stupidity is amusing but ignorance is not”.
—————————————————————————-

Frank Zappa – the greatest musician and social commentator of our time.

“Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
~ Frank Zappa

“Everybody believes in something and everybody, by virtue of the fact that they believe in something, uses that something to support their own existence.”
~ Frank Zappa

I miss Frank.

#138 Catlady on 04.24.21 at 7:25 pm

For all you people moaning about not working due to covid, Long term care facilities are desperate for Psw’s. Not the most pleasant of jobs; crappy work schedules, selfish co-workers, mentally and physically draining. Oh, and don’t forget the average $21 dollar an hour salary. However, my co-workers and I have worked non-stop since covid arrived. If you need a job, Ontario is offering free training. Thirty two years doing this job, and I am so grateful for it during this pandemic. Sometimes living a simple life is where it’s at. Gratitude goes a long way these days. Stay safe and please get your vaccine.

#139 VicPaul on 04.25.21 at 12:48 pm

#42 Faron* on 04.23.21 at 5:21 pm
#30 Fake news on 04.23.21 at 4:15 pm

You’re a fool.*
– Faron, insulting another commenter with whom he and his ideology don’t agree.

Biden inherited this from Trump.*

– Biden inherited a vaccine program from Trump that produced a vaccine that was in his arm before he took office.

He was crushed in the election for good reason. Get over it.*
– conveniently forgetting “Russia-gate” Faron? Two+ years of outright lies, aided by a 24/7 lefty msm news cycle. That’s how to “get over it”?

Ideologues like you can be so transparently disingenuous.

M57BC