By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
.
There are investment lessons to be found in the most unlikely of places.
Take, for instance, the first 20 seconds of this rather intense scene from Oliver Stone’s Platoon.
As Sgt. Barnes helpfully pointed out to that young soldier, it’s often in one’s best interests to “take the pain” even when—and sometimes especially when—the world around is out of control.
And so it is with investing. Quietly absorbing discomfort, particularly major discomfort, is often the best thing for your portfolio results. And what’s the most frequent source of discomfort for investors? Volatility.
There are two main types of volatility. The first is the face-melting kind, which occurs infrequently, say, once every three to five years. Recent examples of this kind of volatility occurred during the European sovereign debt crisis, the surprise Brexit vote and, of course, the Covid-19 crisis. In fact, during the Covid crisis the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the magnitude of price change (volatility) on the S&P 500, reached an all-time high of 82.7 in February 2020, eclipsing the previous 80.7 record set during the financial crisis. For some perspective, the VIX, as of this writing, is at about 17. Investors are most likely to make emotional, fear-fueled investment decisions during such periods. This kind of volatility basically amounts to a bullet wound to the chest.
The second kind of volatility is less intense, but occurs with more regularity. Every single year, for example, the S&P 500 experiences intra-year drops. The average intra-year decline over the past 40 years has been about 14%, but it’s sometimes as mild as only 3%. Investors are less prone to make emotional investment decisions during any one of these less-intense volatility periods, but the sheer frequency of them still makes poor investment decisions a constant risk. This kind of volatility amounts to a bee sting, but if you get enough bee stings…
Both types of volatility result in an onslaught of behavioural biases: loss aversion, recency bias, herd behaviour, overconfidence and so on. All of these biases can be combated through balance and diversification, infrequent trading, rebalancing, avoiding incessant media newsflow and seeking professional investment advice.
However, it’s impossible to avoid all the hardship that capital-market investing brings. Sometimes you just have to suffer. And this is difficult, especially when you don’t have assurances that all the suffering will be worth it in the end.
While I can’t guarantee the outcome after the next round of face-melting volatility, I can show you how the S&P 500 has soared past mountains of historical volatility over the last 10 years. It’s also useful to highlight that the S&P 500 continues to advance strongly throughout the current recession (a common occurrence for equity markets):
S&P 500 (blue line, LHS) vs CBOE Volatility Index (red line, RHS) – 10 years
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; shaded are – recession
And while I can’t guarantee the outcome after the next, and inevitable, intra-year market decline, I can show you that the vast majority of the time, despite these declines, the S&P 500 ultimately finishes the year in the black:
S&P 500 intra-year declines vs calendar year returns.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management ; Intra-year drop refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year; Returns don’t include dividends
Volatility is unavoidable, but if you give in to it (sell assets) every time it occurs, it will kill your performance. If you can endure the suffering that it inflicts, your portfolio will almost certainly come out the other side of it in a better place.
So, the next time the VIX spikes (and it will), think of Sgt. Barnes leaning over you and take the pain. He’s a horrible SOB, but he’s actually doing what’s in your best interests.
Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.
91 comments ↓
#83 Sail Away on 04.16.21 at 6:09 pm
#59 Stone on 04.16.21 at 4:38 pm
Another milestone day. My fantastic and curvaceous balanced and diversified portfolio hit 11.20% ytd.
———-
Sigh. Must this continue?
Your portfolio, as you shared here, actually has a total YTD return of 8%. Yes, I track it.
Get off the telephone wire. And put your pants out.
///////////
Sailo, he’s lost all credibility long ago.
no pain no gain
True masters of volatility will use it (volatility) as an invitation for “opportunistic rebalancing” (O.R.). Yes, I know we’re not supposed to time the market, so I rebranded it as O.R. to make myself feel okay with it.
I live my life through song lyrics and movie quotes.
Enjoy your weekend.
Thanks Mr. Rowat
I will HODL my US stocks and Toronto houses
PA NAV near 20 now, thanks to central banks
Should I still work?
Mercy Doug! Did you have to include that gory little movie clip? It’s not yet 8:00 am here and I am only halfway through my full dairy latte.
Volatility is always conquered by endurance. In a ‘Ernest Shackleton’ kind of way. That’s always worked for me.
Exit stage right. +18 degrees today with full sun. Good day to go swooning. With sunscreen applied, of course.
Some might find this discussion from Sept 1, 2017 interesting.
Given what has been happened since and currently,
big tech Censorship, Left-right, …
Joe Rogan Experience #1006 – Jordan Peterson & Bret Weinstein https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6G59zsjM2UI
I’m part way through it, its 2-3/4hr long.
#1 Penny Henny on 04.17.21 at 9:31 am
#83 Sail Away on 04.16.21 at 6:09 pm
#59 Stone on 04.16.21 at 4:38 pm
Another milestone day. My fantastic and curvaceous balanced and diversified portfolio hit 11.20% ytd.
———-
Sigh. Must this continue?
Your portfolio, as you shared here, actually has a total YTD return of 8%. Yes, I track it.
Get off the telephone wire. And put your pants out.
///////////
Sailo, he’s lost all credibility long ago.
———
And yet, you all come back for more and more. Hmmm…what does that say about me? Better yet…what does that say about all of you. Lol
Spin puppets. Spin.
Barnes literally did nothing wrong (until he tried to murder one of his guys, which was out of character and part of the poorly written plot).
careful with Barnes, he might turn on you
The pomp today overseas for Prince Phillips funeral is quite inspiring. All those big and small touches. Cushions pinned with metals, etc. Everyone is entitled to their cultural traditions and day in the sun. The will endure. Some hate this little number, which is why it needs to be heard regularly….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGQgdE50QA4&list=RDyGQgdE50QA4&start_radio=1&t=17
Funny how many of the best people to learn from are “horrible SOB’s , but when you pay attention they are showing you how to act in your best interests.
“Millennials would be fools to expect their lives to unfold as carbon copies of their parents’. No profligate hippiedom, no finding-myself-in-Europe, no sha-na-nah for them. This is Darwin, baby. And you’d best know that now.” – Garth Turner
Volatility is my friend. I have made out like a bandit buying the dividend paying blue chips during the big dips which happen every 5-7 years.
#6 the Jaguar on 04.17.21 at 10:05 am
Mercy Doug! Did you have to include that gory little movie clip? It’s not yet 8:00 am here and I am only halfway through my full dairy latte.
—-
Consider it your first morning coffee.
—Doug
“When the machine breaks down , we break down…”
Sgt. Barnes in Platoon.
The mini-dips are great ways to supercharge returns. Buy the dip. Every time. The bigger the dip the bigger the buy.
This is not timing the market. It’s maximizing value because market fluctuation is a certainty.
For example:
The following standard portfolio has 5 year CAGR just under 11%. Buying the dips adds a few more.
20 XIC / 10 XAW / 30 VUS / 10 VRE / 10 CPD / 10 VAB / 10 BRK
Full disclosure: while I suggest the above allocation to friends and family, my own portfolio is far more cowboy
#8 Stone on 04.17.21 at 10:18 am
And yet, you all come back for more and more. Hmmm…what does that say about me? Better yet…what does that say about all of you. Lol
————
Well, when kids lie, responsible adults will often suggest they be careful to avoid losing all credibility. Most listen.
The incorrigibles just keep it up. Eventually nobody wastes their time.
So, what does it say about you? We think you may yet be salvageable. I’m losing interest but decided to give it one last shot.
The 14-day quarantine, of course. NS reported 6 cases yesterday in a pop of 1 million (60% of which is urban).
______
Comparing NS to downtown Toronto condo’s is apples and oranges. And yes, I’ve visited there. Beautiful part of the country and great people. But urban? Please.
Volatility inflicts suffering you say? When stocks or other assets take a sufficiently big drop, that’s when you go on a buying blitz. I wouldn’t exactly call that suffering.
What’s a dip, you ask? Every time the 14 day RSI on SPX drops below 30 has been a fantastic opportunity. 14 hour RSI on SPX works very well almost always. Nasdaq is skewed, so a higher low RSI thresh is warranted there (i suspect log normalizing the data would bring it in line). Haven’t looked at the TSX in this light.
“Apocalypse Now” also comes to mind.
The “Money Helicopters” clip in the beginning, and Colonel Kurtz’s “The Horror” are classics.
Well Barnes dies a justifiable death…..Should have gone with Apocalypse Now.. :)
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning. Smelled like victory.”
Without a flinch to the surrounding mayhem…. now that’s how to stay invested!
#5 LH on 04.17.21 at 10:04 am
I will HODL my US stocks and Toronto houses
PA NAV near 20 now, thanks to central banks
Should I still work?
////////////
You still here?
Haven’t seen you for a while.
Should you still work? NO!
Life is short.
There is more to life than having more money.
You won the game so stop playing.
Good article, gonna add it to the scrapbook.
Woa, intense! Barnes is the best character in that movie. Disagree with #9, plot is superb. Agree with Doug, need to ‘take the pain; in other words, ‘need to grow up.’ Life is sometimes hard, sometimes beautiful, in a fallen world.
Somebody on this blog coined yesterday the (suggested conservative campaign?) phrase ” Trudeau No” .
Can we shorten it to “TrudeNo ” without offending sensibilities and the posting guidelines?
I for one always sell in downturns…. I sell my bond funds to buy equity funds! As Sail Away mentioned, this is one of the major bonuses of super-charging a B&D portfolio (coupled with dumping in as much cash as I have on hand during major market dumps).
#17 Sail Away on 04.17.21 at 11:25 am
#8 Stone on 04.17.21 at 10:18 am
And yet, you all come back for more and more. Hmmm…what does that say about me? Better yet…what does that say about all of you. Lol
————
Well, when kids lie, responsible adults will often suggest they be careful to avoid losing all credibility. Most listen.
The incorrigibles just keep it up. Eventually nobody wastes their time.
So, what does it say about you? We think you may yet be salvageable. I’m losing interest but decided to give it one last shot.
———
I guess your name is Nobody.
It suits you.
The real reason why real estate costs so much in GTA:
Incident involving stripper at job site ‘entirely unacceptable,’ Mattamy Homes says.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/incident-involving-stripper-at-job-site-entirely-unacceptable-mattamy-homes-says-1.5989394
Economic roundup:
– Even more business and industry in Ontariowe are ordered shut. For our health of course!!
I wonder how long the models have determined, for a UBI to be forced/demanded?
– What will replace all the empty storefronts? Looking like Condos with chain stores at their base. And weed stores. This map is epic – T2’s Soma to keep us docile.
.Cannabis Retail Stores in Ontario
https://agco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=bef894bc0876448fba26333f1de8d370
.Globe says Dollarama plans 600-store expansion
—- Another Former First World Country falls deeper.
Lucky Germans, they will be so healthy. #envy
.Merkel bids for powers to impose a nationwide COVID lockdown (euronews.com)
—Ontariowe. Can this comment be verified? Sounds like a fishing expedition- for the numbers;
“In Windsor-Essex they reported that the covid testing clinic is adding hours for asymptomatic testing.”
…………………
–Haha nobody want to come here – to Kanada. Dropped to almost nobody.
https://irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/statistics/Pages/Irregular-border-crosser-statistics.aspx
Irregular border crosser statistics
–Control over our Breeding? Always:
.Brazil warns women to delay pregnancy amid Covid-19 surge (theguardian.com)
@28 Rook on 04.16.21 at 2:55 pm
“What happened to actual leadership? What happened to a Canada that was built on things harvested from the ocean, harvested from the land, or pulled out of the ground? Why do we make spreadsheets instead of stuff?”
Been thinking about your questions. (I’ve got at least 2x the number of adult years than you have. Worked high-tech, for myself, private companies, and a number of times for our government.)
I m not writing this to be negative, so please read the following as broadening your education, ok?
I’ve seen a number of private organizations “cycle” from birth to death, where the banks lock the doors, and think that governments and governmental organizations follow the same cycle – except, the “death” step is protracted or non-existent.
ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organizational_life_cycle
Talked to a lawyer a few weeks ago; this person mentioned a fed government dept. worked at where the boss said to the scientists “you can come up with 3 possible solutions, but one of them has to be X” – of course, “X” was the chosen path forward. A lawyer could figure that things were broken…
The MBAs hold the purse strings, the scientific PhDs have no power to determine outcome. MBA’s win, get a “great” organizational structure in place, not realizing that, like the fable of “the emperors new clothes” the reason for existence has left the room.
Read Tony Hoare’s ACM Turing award acceptance speech – I did when it was first printed in BYTE magazine and remember it well all these years later – now available here:
https://www.cs.fsu.edu/~engelen/courses/COP4610/hoare.pdf
I think it’s cute when financial analysts pull out charts when markets make absolutely zero sense and are totally and absolutely disconnected from reality with trillions printed and gifted by a Fed chairman who isn’t even an economist that has distorted everything to high hell.
I’m up over 80% since last April on $1.6 million deployed on the 7th of that month. Does that sound remotely logical??? A three week bear market?
Ya didn’t think so.
#29 KVC on 04.17.21 at 12:59 pm
The real reason why real estate costs so much in GTA:
Incident involving stripper at job site ‘entirely unacceptable,’ Mattamy Homes says.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/incident-involving-stripper-at-job-site-entirely-unacceptable-mattamy-homes-says-1.5989394
————————————————————————————————
They frown at that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RvNS7JfcMM
#19 Doug in London on 04.17.21 at 11:48 am
Volatility inflicts suffering you say? When stocks or other assets take a sufficiently big drop, that’s when you go on a buying blitz. I wouldn’t exactly call that suffering.
—-
Were you never a new, inexperienced investor? Always had a stomach of iron? For most, and quite understandably, it’s a learning process.
—Doug
#28 Stone on 04.17.21 at 12:54 pm
#17 Sail Away on 04.17.21 at 11:25 am
#8 Stone on 04.17.21 at 10:18 am
And yet, you all come back for more and more. Hmmm…what does that say about me? Better yet…what does that say about all of you. Lol
———–
Well, when kids lie, responsible adults will often suggest they be careful to avoid losing all credibility. Most listen.
The incorrigibles just keep it up. Eventually nobody wastes their time.
So, what does it say about you? We think you may yet be salvageable. I’m losing interest but decided to give it one last shot.
———–
I guess your name is Nobody.
It suits you.
———–
‘Tis true. Everybody needs a nobody. In the words of Shel Silverstein:
‘Nobody loves me, nobody cares,
Nobody picks me peaches and pears.
Nobody offers me candy and Cokes,
Nobody listens and laughs at my jokes.
Nobody helps when I get into a fight,
Nobody does all my homework at night.
Nobody misses me,
Nobody cries,
Nobody thinks I’m a wonderful guy.
So, if you ask me who’s my best friend, in a whiz,
I’ll stand up and tell you NOBODY is!
But yesterday night I got quite a scare
I woke up and Nobody just WASN’T there!
I called out and reached for Nobody’s hand,
In the darkness where Nobody usually stands,
Then I poked through the house, in each cranny and nook,
But I found SOMEBODY each place that I looked.
I seached till I’m tired, and now with the dawn,
There’s no doubt about it-
NOBODY’S GONE!!’
Why is volatility seen to be mean “down” by so many people? Isn’t the technical definition a wide dispersion of values? I view a market that goes diagonal up (like the S&P 500, now up 90% from the March 2020 lows) to be highly volatile, not stable as the central bankers would have you believe.
For Faron and other experts. LAND – the spoils of this Economic War. Take a data-based approach
Seen elsewhere. Two exhibits:
1. The America 2050 plan (yes our rulers play the long game) – toward creation of 7 Economic regions.
Page 7 map – which I’ve clipped to here: https://imgur.com/a/lXxpwid
https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/rpa-org/pdfs/2050-Paper-Defining-US-Megaregions.pdf
2. Bill Gate’s land holdings By State map. See the relation? Do a side by side. And he’s not done buying up…
https://editions.mydigitalpublication.com/publication/?m=61105&i=688913&p=62
………….
— Anybody aged 1-25 in Ontariowe, QC, has spent between 4.5% to 100% of their living days under crippling Economic and Social Lockdowns, with no end in sight.
The numbers in 3 months time will read. 6% – 100%.
This time next year it will be 8.5-100%
This is not going away. Not a chance ’till 2025.
@#29 KVC
Those “wrap up” or “Roof top” parties have been going on for years….
Old news with a pandemic and video phone twist.
@#28 Stone
Ever seen the 1973 classic Sergio Leone spaghetti Western?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RYq1PLdT0s
Henry Fonda and Terrance Hill
Good for you Stone. Way to go. I havent been around lately. Wanna share your secret? No biggie. Just wondering
Low reader comments today.
I’m sure the blue skies and 20 c temps in the Lowerbrainland have nothing to do with it.
So Doug.
Is your Sgt Barnes analogy a warning that with these great investment times we should be prepared to accept the inevitable bad times as part of doing biz…… or are you just an Oliver Stone junkie?
Anyone care to comment or explain why RY stock (rbc on the Nasdaq) closed after hours around $34usd down from $90?
My job sucks compared to all you guys.
The only stripping I get to see is weather stripping…
M46BC
There are reasons why Canadians have the highest housing prices in the world. It is mainly because Canadians are the most ignorant financially. They do not spend the time to research financial alternatives. It is bordering on lazy. The link illustrates how this general financial immaturity manifests itself also in high auto prices.Canadians love to bitch and complain,but they only have themselves to blame. Citizens of India and China in general have a much higher financial acumen then we do. Sad considering we used to have a respected public school system.
https://www.driving.ca/features/feature-story/motor-mouth-canadians-have-no-one-to-blame-but-themselves-for-the-high-cost-of-cars/amp
Barnes: Death? What you all know about death?
This is the everything bubble, everyone is loaded up, all in, debt upon more debt, leverage on leverage, here’s a thought… muted returns in short term, then… “the REAL correction.”
Glad to see even police forces in Ontario are refusing to implement the Hitlerian social controls suggested by Drug Fraud.
Ontarians need real leaders in times like this, not idiots.
#32 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 1:39 pm
I think it’s cute when financial analysts pull out charts when markets make absolutely zero sense and are totally and absolutely disconnected from reality with trillions printed and gifted by a Fed chairman who isn’t even an economist that has distorted everything to high hell.
—-
More stimulus has come from governments than central banks this time around. Poor Powell, gets blamed for everything. And are you ever in the wrong place if you don’t like financial charts.
—Doug
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8rU5mpwJ6GU&pp=QACIAgA%3D
“I sent 16 of my own men to the latrine that night…”
When lockdowns, and unemployment produce soaring stock markets and home prices, volatility , to me , feels like a raid on a speakeasy.
#43 Flop… on 04.17.21 at 4:51 pm
My job sucks compared to all you guys.
The only stripping I get to see is weather stripping…
M46BC
….
Just need to be imaginative like the ontario construction workers hiring job site strippers… Ford wasn’t happy
Doug Ford reminds of Sgt. Barnes.
Freedom First
Last year for around a month or so, I worked on a luxury condo building opposite Granville Island named Silver Sea.
It was built in 2006, only got to see one suite but the whole core of the building was still in mint condition, didn’t notice any major flaws.
Even the parkade area was high end, and I have been inside The Shangri-La development, for comparison.
It’s in a cul-de-sac, to get in there every morning we had to pass the construction of the much hyped, supposedly finished soon, never ending, Vancouver House fiasco.
This is the development that included the 5 million for the spinning chandelier.
Rumour after rumour, cheated buyer after cheated buyer has been hitting social media.
A month or so ago someone shared the glossy brochures of the sales pitch and what the residents actually got.
Among the discrepancies in the common areas, before you worry about the actual units the brochure, from memory, showed a huge well lit library with large pieces of art and resting areas, what they got was a table, a few chairs and a couple of boxes of books dumped in the corner.
The shared function area showed a group of people dining out on the patio, with a huge table, having a great time, in reality the got something big enough to take a draw off of a cigarette.
Some of the discrepancies mentioned are in a link below.
Anyway, that was then, this is now.
https://twitter.com/iamkennethchan/status/1383226366410117120
Massive flooding.
Nine floors damaged, and counting.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-house-flooding-damage
“The flood began on the 29th/30th floor, and at least nine floors below also suffered varying degrees of damage. Accessibility is currently a major issue, as the elevators are not operational due to the water damage.
It is anticipated many residents affected by the flooding will need to move out of the building for months to allow for major repairs.
The damage is likely more extensive as video shows flooding into the underground parking levels, over 30 storeys from the flood’s point of origin. The repair costs are expected to be in the millions.”
Some of the reports mention that the developers like to only have a small gap between the doors and the firs sprinklers, so this could well be the culprit.
They should have walked across the road to where I was working and bought the 2006 model…
M46BC
https://www.blogto.com/sports_play/2021/04/golf-courses-ontario-new-restrictions/
:)
this should slow down the bug, no?
there is NO science behind that, just a frightened obese Ford in full blown panic mode. Good thing he’s toast soon
I think it’s cute when financial analysts pull out charts when markets make absolutely zero sense and are totally and absolutely disconnected from reality with trillions printed and gifted by a Fed chairman who isn’t even an economist that has distorted everything to high hell.
I’m up over 80% since last April on $1.6 million deployed on the 7th of that month. Does that sound remotely logical??? A three week bear market?
Ya didn’t think so.
………
lol, as long as the markets keeps humming along ‘portfolio managers’ are happy campers , all else is noise :)
cartoonish
His last words were ,”Do it!”
Then he died.
A neighbor must have complained as cops were sent to a school yard that had some kids playing hockey . The cop- chatted with the kids and told them to enjoy Canada’s great game
Haha , cops tuning out .
52 Flop
I remember when they were running the ads for that new site.
The pretentious a$$hole talking about what it “evoked” and the idead that a 30 story tower could be “top heavy’ in the Earthquake zone that is Vancouver…… bizarre to say the least.
Some of the low rise residential buildings around False Creek also had their issues.
The construction looks suspect to say the least.
Less than 6 months old with cracks appearing everywhere in drywall, concrete etc.
A multi year lawsuit with only the lawyers winning.
Doug, I hope that movie clip doesn’t represent what you literally do with your clients when their freaking!!!
Two more sleeps til our fantastically intelligent leadership leads us through the budget that is two years over due and a debt that has boated by almost 1/2 a trillion dollars…..
More of the same?
What the hell.
Its only numbers on a screen
Crowdie, click play on the third video of here.
https://twitter.com/iamkennethchan/status/1383226366410117120
Tragedy.
I see lots of water and hear loud bells.
Only conclusion to be drawn
This condo building hit the same iceberg as the Titanic…
M46BC
#55 Steven Rowlandson on 04.17.21 at 6:46 pm
His last words were ,”Do it!”
Then he died.
————-
Sure it was not “Just do it”.
I heard he was sponsored by Nike.
@#60 Floppie
Ahhh yess.
The fire “alert tones” that are so quiet and inoffensive 99% of the occupants dont realize they’re in a fire.
I looked after several 40 year old buildings in the downtown core about 15 years ago.
We had lots of floods. I’m sure the age of the piping, valves etc was an issue.
Some were caused by trades doing work but that was rare.
The most expensive flood was the first one.
Middle of the night. A long weekend. No one around.
Security found it we believe…..several hours later.
A hot water tank burst its pressure relief valve and water was rocketing out of the tank….like a wide open garden hose.
Water pressure in downtown Vancouver increases at night. No one is using the toilets.
This was on the 14th floor.
When I arrived at 2am the elevator in the lobby opened and a waterfall gushed out from the ceiling.
I got the water shut off and started calling the disaster reparation companies, insurance adjuster, etc.
the total bill for clean up? $650k
But that doesnt take into account the endless construction, noise, etc.
The second flood was a similar issue. $450k
But there were floods in the newer buildings as well. Tower 4 of the Bentalls comes to mind. Pipes burst on the roof…again in the middle of the night…..water made it to the lobby.
Most new construction of towers will show its weaknesses in the first year.
I’ve seen new hotels with pipes in the UNHEATED stairwells freeze and burst.
Oops , someone forgot heat trace on the pipes.
from a colleague;
‘South Carolina has almost done away with masks. Myrtle Beach is full of people from northern states. I had a patient yesterday who manages a 220 room hotel. Said every room is sold out for next two weeks.’
……
good thing Ontario had it right, eh? Lucky for Ford he’s ‘governing’ Canadians, that poor soul would last south of the border
Some of you should listen to Steve…
https://youtu.be/vtEecPf6ZVc
#47 Doug Rowat on 04.17.21 at 5:04 pm
#32 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 1:39 pm
I think it’s cute when financial analysts pull out charts when markets make absolutely zero sense and are totally and absolutely disconnected from reality with trillions printed and gifted by a Fed chairman who isn’t even an economist that has distorted everything to high hell.
—-
More stimulus has come from governments than central banks this time around. Poor Powell, gets blamed for everything. And are you ever in the wrong place if you don’t like financial charts.
—Doug
———————————————-
Doug my good man, charts and price discovery used to mean something, but no longer. Not with dudes like plunge protection Powell printing and dumping it way outside his mandate. Where do you think governments are getting the money from?
Poor Powell? Please give us a break.
It is miserable when you think you are alone. I have never lost faith in good people. Tough choices are meant to be done and I will not sugarcoat it. Life can end quickly. Seems to be that people had more pride in who they were than what had when I was growing up.
I had to endure sideshows of where people had travelled yet it piqued my interest in the rest of the world. I am one of those guys who kept 15 years of National Geographic before the internet and a slide show projector.
I have to say I am disappointed by the lack of responsibly today. Hit /runs and frivolous lawsuits are too common for my liking.
I am on my own. When it comes to Carbon Tax, I favor the Lib plan if we want a Co2 plan. Erin is proving to be lacking. Personally, I just not want the carbon tax thrown into general revenue.
Alberta, we are better than given credit. True, Kenny is a career Politian but so is Notly. Dog, maybe I should try to form a separatist team – is the work worthy? I would be playing for keeps, much like Putin.
My view of markets – it has been fun!
Turner Nation says it, this is not going anywhere till
2025.
Can you say market crash…..
@Flop
My spouse just worked on development in South Van River district. It seems no back flows were installed so sand is in every pipe and heating pipe etc. They will have to drain the entire high-rise system then go from there. Seems strata asked the developer why one was not installed, seems it was not part of code so they did not bother. This developer has built many all by the river. I wonder how much this will cost all those who bought into the developments, meanwhile the developer just walks away with the cash.
@Doug Rowat, post #34:
I’ve made a lot of mistakes with investing, but NEVER panicked when stocks dropped and NEVER will. To me buying stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and other assets on sale is no different than scooping up stuff on sale on Boxing Day, Black Friday, or any store closing sale or yard sale.
Right from when I started investing in mutual funds back in the spring of 1990, I could see the advantage of buying more when they were on sale. I remember those days well, when now classic songs like Freefalling by Tom Petty, Out Of Control by Chalk Circle, and Blue Sky Mine by Midnight Oil (from Australia) were getting a lot of radio play on CKGB Timmins, 750 KHz on the AM band. Heard those classics many times back then on my 1988 vintage Radio Shack boombox, or the Philco radio in my 1978 Mustang. Back in those days I figured we Baby Boomers, then the most educated generation in history, would all try to buy equities at the same time when they were on sale so the advantage of someone like me trying to do so would be lost. I couldn’t believe how dumb and naive I was back then to believe such a thing could actually happen.
LOL………….love the pic…………..American M-16 fully automatic. We need to get Doug Ford out of office. He is overstepping his mandate and has messed up this Province worse that Kathleen Wynn has. Stop the lock-downs………they don’t work!
Agree: I use every drop to add, because my methodology doesn’t give me a choice. Dividends come in monthly, quarterly, semi and yearly, flooding my acct with fresh cash. I continue to buy more stocks instead of rebalancing by selling. My portfolio has grown like crazy… and tax is negligible…..none this year. Dividend tax credits, exemptions and splitting with you know who. Bottom line….it’s always a good time to buy.
#40 unbalanced on 04.17.21 at 3:43 pm
Good for you Stone. Way to go. I havent been around lately. Wanna share your secret? No biggie. Just wondering
*****
He’s shared his secret already, it’s all about having the right asset mix in his portfolio:
25% balanced and diversified
65% exaggeration
10% outright lies
Of course, the mix does change from time to time.
Seriously though, if you’re just trying to sucker him in by pretending to believe him, it has already been done.
the PF he shared is at 7.18 YTD which is fine but I’m glad I didn’t listen to him since even my boring 3 part PF is beating that now at 7.31
He thinks he’s getting under people’s skin and being a successful troll, but the sad truth is that other posters arent gnashing their teeth but rather just rolling their eyes. Perhaps the occasional sigh or even a headshake, but that’s about as strong a response as his childish tales elicit.
Thanks for the heads up Soggyshorts.
Poor Doug Ford.
The Scientists and medical people know how things spread. The little invisible things don’t take an hour off.
A vocal part of the public think they know how these things work.
Doing 100% of what the experts are telling him to do would result in economic carnage.
Doing 100% of what the “vocal public” are telling him to do would result in human carnage.
What ever he does, he’ll get hammered. There’s no book to follow here, he’s got guts to do what he does. Does he follow the educated, or does he just bend towards what the public tells him to do?
I mean, if 50% of the public is lower than average intelligence, and you have to be smart to become a Doctor or Scientist, I’d say “follow the smart people”. But the uneducated would crucify him.
History in the making here.
https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-government-revises-new-police-pandemic-powers-after-pushback-1.5391473
hey Canada, this is called pushback. You dont need to apologize , LOL
#72 SoggyShorts on 04.18.21 at 3:10 am
#40 unbalanced on 04.17.21 at 3:43 pm
Good for you Stone. Way to go. I havent been around lately. Wanna share your secret? No biggie. Just wondering
*****
He’s shared his secret already, it’s all about having the right asset mix in his portfolio:
25% balanced and diversified
65% exaggeration
10% outright lies
Of course, the mix does change from time to time.
Seriously though, if you’re just trying to sucker him in by pretending to believe him, it has already been done.
the PF he shared is at 7.18 YTD which is fine but I’m glad I didn’t listen to him since even my boring 3 part PF is beating that now at 7.31
He thinks he’s getting under people’s skin and being a successful troll, but the sad truth is that other posters arent gnashing their teeth but rather just rolling their eyes. Perhaps the occasional sigh or even a headshake, but that’s about as strong a response as his childish tales elicit.
———
There are multiple balanced and diversified ETF mixes that can replicate my returns. It’s too bad all you smart ones are too brainless to think about it.
7.18%. Aren’t you and Sail Away talking before giving out conflicting returns? He’s quite wrong too (apparently math is not an engineering thing) but at least he’s indicating that I’m in the 8%+ range.
I’m just surprised no one is trying to post a portfolio mix on here lately. The rest of the peanut gallery could probably figure out where the gaps are and improve on it. There was one on here who was close but just couldn’t make the leap for his fixed income component. His equity component was quite close. Too bad. Or then again, maybe it finally clicked for him and now he too is keeping it to himself.
#65 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 10:15 pm
#47 Doug Rowat on 04.17.21 at 5:04 pm
#32 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 1:39 pm
———————————————-
Doug my good man, charts and price discovery used to mean something, but no longer. Not with dudes like plunge protection Powell printing and dumping it way outside his mandate. Where do you think governments are getting the money from?
Poor Powell? Please give us a break.
—-
The blog was about not selling into volatility, not your central banker obsession. And when you’re using alliterative nicknames, it’s an obsession.
—Doug
nobody cares Stone.
you that insecure?
https://globalnews.ca/news/7765156/ontario-covid-19-restrictions-ford-david-fisman/
https://www.insauga.com/opinion-ontarios-new-restrictions-are-pure-theatre-and-everyone-should-be-furious-about-them
whoa, …what’s happening !! :)
I prefer Sargent Carter yelling at Gomer Pyle!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pB1c5Kjxpw
Apparently even “Work From Home (Hotel?)” is too stressful for those brow beaten govt car insurance workers……….
https://www.burnabynow.com/bc-news/icbc-employee-fired-for-faking-sick-leave-vacationing-in-penticton-3642496
I wonder if the employees get a car insurance discount for working for the govt agency ( along their juicy underfunded pension plans….)
In the three years preceding 2020 the level of investment by Canadian businesses not associated with the housing market actually declined by an average of 1.0% per year.
In the 30 years preceding 2016 investment by Canadian businesses outside of the housing market increased by an average of 8.0% per year. In spite of this alarming reversal the authors, and most contributors to this blog, seem convinced that the Covid 19 crisis will miraculously increase the level of investment by private businesses and revive the slumping Canadian economy.
A little hard evidence as to why investment by Canadian businesses will increase in 2021 and beyond, other than the continuation of QE, would be appreciated.
#76 Stone on 04.18.21 at 9:49 am
#72 SoggyShorts on 04.18.21 at 3:10 am
#40 unbalanced on 04.17.21 at 3:43 pm
———
Soggy and I may have a difference in tracking dividend payment. I just use % of annual dividend for rough numbers.
There are only two reasons I can fathom for keeping a portfolio secret:
First, obviously, is that it’s a lie. There is absolutely no possible way that sharing could affect returns.
Second, and as you tipped your hand by soliciting Soggy, is that you’re selling informal ‘advising’ services and are concerned some of those people may read this blog and twig to your con.
I suspect a combination of the two since you have indisputably lied in the past about other things (Vietnam, anyone?). Hopefully anyone you’re trying to con reads this blog.
#77 Doug Rowat on 04.18.21 at 10:14 am
#65 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 10:15 pm
#47 Doug Rowat on 04.17.21 at 5:04 pm
#32 Fundamentals on 04.17.21 at 1:39 pm
———————————————-
Doug my good man, charts and price discovery used to mean something, but no longer. Not with dudes like plunge protection Powell printing and dumping it way outside his mandate. Where do you think governments are getting the money from?
Poor Powell? Please give us a break.
—-
The blog was about not selling into volatility, not your central banker obsession. And when you’re using alliterative nicknames, it’s an obsession.
—Doug
——————————
Alliterative nicknames
CEF that goes for you, too.
There are about 20 crows on the roof eating kibble this morning. They have arrived in force.
Their team effort to nesting and raising chicks is very effective. If past years are any indication, this whole crew will end up with 3-5 young that they protect with a vengeance. When the fledglings are hopping around, nothing and nobody is safe, including our neighbour, Marilyn, and her tiny Westie on their daily walk. It’s like a motorcycle gang raising children.
@#84 Pugnacious Pouting Ponzirelli
“Alliterative nicknames
CEF that goes for you, too.”
++++
I’d rather be alliterative than illiterate…..
The blog was about not selling into volatility, not your central banker obsession. And when you’re using alliterative nicknames, it’s an obsession.
—Doug
Nice deflection. Doesn’t remotely address the truth. Glad you’re ok with massive public debt propping up wobbly capitalism.
#87 Fundamentals on 04.18.21 at 12:10 pm
The blog was about not selling into volatility, not your central banker obsession. And when you’re using alliterative nicknames, it’s an obsession.
—Doug
Nice deflection. Doesn’t remotely address the truth. Glad you’re ok with massive public debt propping up wobbly capitalism.
———
When it works and no one of importance is harmed, who cares.
It’s interesting that some are so concerned with lies from Stone (no dog in that fight) yet don’t care about Elon’s lies. I guess if it makes you money, ethics can be ignored.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9484391/amp/Two-die-Tesla-auto-pilot-no-one-driving-crashes-tree.html
#89 Faron on 04.18.21 at 1:08 pm
It’s interesting that some are so concerned with lies from Stone (no dog in that fight) yet don’t care about Elon’s lies. I guess if it makes you money, ethics can be ignored.
———
I don’t know if or where Elon lied.
Stone lied about me. That’s personal.
Stone:
When it works and no one of importance is harmed, who cares.
———————————–
You mean like 95% of the population racked with public and private debt and dealing with high inflation everywhere?