Suck it up

When not doing my day job, I moderate comments on this blog and try not to throw up. It’s a challenge. Here’s a recent example.

April 14, 2021.
The beginning of the end. When two of the largest banks, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, report earnings on the same day. Between these two banks, there is $5.1 TRILLION in assets, which is an astounding 23% of US GDP.
The world will be holding its breath to see those numbers because it will be a signal of what’s to come. And when the news of the ugly chain of corporate/personal defaults and the resulting massive holes in the big banks’ balance sheet hits…
Panic will set in… And global liquidity is going to start drying up… just like it did in 2008 when Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers troubles became public. And stock markets will crash in a spectacular fashion… Hope everyone is liquid as of tonight. 14 hours from now may be too late.
PREPARE

Well, it’s April 15th now. Let’s review and see what happened. Bank of America hit a four-bagger. Revenue up 17%, underwriting fees tripled. Earnings were $5.1 billion, beating Street estimates of $4.3 billion.  More big gains at JPMorgan, Goldman and Wells. In total revenues were 50% above estimates and the beat on earnings was 82%. Equity trade is up. Bank deposits up. Loan loss provisions way down. “These are blowout numbers,” says my wizened buddy Ed Pennock.

Oh, and did you catch the latest US jobless claims? The lowest since the pandemic began. So the reopening trade continues, based not just on expectations and hopium, but on stats. Earnings season will be awesome. Up to four million Americans are being vaccinated daily. The unemployment rate has crashed. Biden is spending up a storm. Bond yields have tapered off again. Inflation is moderate. Consumers are juiced. Personal savings are at the highest point in decades.

So did you watch Jay Powell on Sixty Minutes a few days ago? The Fed boss was clear – the economy is fine; Covid will fade; the recovery is still in its baby stages; inflation’s no biggie; the central bank is not going to withdraw support any time soon.

Meanwhile, in case you missed it, here are some recent equity market scores. The S&P 500 has advanced 49% in a year. The Dow is ahead 44%. Bay Street has added 37%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has returned 67%. People quivering in cash on the sidelines have actually lost money to inflation, if not also to tax.

Some folks worry P/E ratios are too high by historic standards (that is the relationship of a company’s stock price to its profits). They have a point. The numbers are elevated – but hardly a surprise. We’re at the tail-end of a global pandemic which triggered a deep recession, rapid loss of jobs, a crashing GDP and an earnings plunge. Now as the Q1 numbers stream in, mostly beating estimates, the ratios decline and stocks which seemed overvalued weeks ago now look fairly priced.

So, balanced and diversified portfolios returned more than 15% in 2019. They added just over 7% in 2020, the Year from Virus Hell. So far this year things are rocking and rolling quite nicely. Anything can happen, but most analysts look at the second half of 2021 and are forced to put on their shades. So bright.

In the entirely of my financial career, which now spans 35 years (yikes), I’ve seen the same movie repeatedly. Market advances are the norm. Market corrections are the exception. The economy expands far more often and substantially than it ever contracts. Crises are sharp and short. Recessions are rare and always brief. And now we know that pandemics always end.

But I’ve also learned fear is a far greater emotion than greed. Confidence is elusive and fleeting. Humans are more worried about losing what they have than eager to gain what they want. It’s why, eternally, grifters, spammers, charlatans and weasels use panic and scare tactics to flog their stuff – from doomer websites making money through clicks, to precious metals, cryptos, newsletters, proprietary research or ‘alternative’ investments.

Should you have fear now?

Sure, be afraid of the idiots around us who won’t get vaccinated. People who don’t understand what a stay-at-home order means. Be concerned about politicians making stuff up as they go along, or governments squandering a balanced future. Fret about polarization and detachment in society. The loss of responsibility. House lust, cats and Reddit.

But don’t worry about your wealth. Not if it’s in the right place. You know where that is.

Now, the daily cookie toss. Wish me luck.

About the picture: “My husband and I are big fans of your blog,” says Zandra. “I love all the great financial advice but I also love all the dog photos. Here is a great picture of our dog really showing off his crazy tongue! I would love to see my husband open his computer to read your blog and see our dog Kooper looking at him. Thank you for all you do!”

124 comments ↓

#1 Reade Barber on 04.15.21 at 12:43 pm

Love the blog garth, keep up the good work. Where do you see the first weakness coming in the house market? I would assume a lot of the cottage buying is being done with big mortgages, possibly with down payments on a secured line of credit. Would this not be the canary in the coal mine if things go south?

#2 Sheesh on 04.15.21 at 12:50 pm

Hey Sail Away, I read this and thought of your recent kitschy art purchase.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/dhl-class-action-hidden-fees-1.5987195

#3 Tarot Card on 04.15.21 at 1:04 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Always a bonus with a good dog picture !

I will be honest I am not a gloom and doom guy but I actually thought the economy was going to roll over last year.

I thank you again for your advice to stay invested my 100,000 paper loss in my deepest despair recouped and I earned a great return last year. Amazing!

I am mostly out of stocks now and into ETFs and yes it may only go up a little each day but over time with dividends it’s a great feeling.

Have a great day!

#4 Conspiratard on 04.15.21 at 1:09 pm

Garth, but maybe those bank numbers reported were just made-up, fake news? A final farewell salute to Bernie Madoff perhaps?

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

Poop here.

(Oops, sorry. I meant PREPARE)

#5 Northshore guy on 04.15.21 at 1:09 pm

Never understood why that PREPARE guy is allowed to post. He adds no value to the comments section.

On the other news

1351 W 15th St north Vancouver,
Listed for 998k
Sold for 1.425m

Before you tell me they deliberately priced it low, let me tell you houses in that neighborhood were selling for 950k in 2019. So a jump of 45%

Not even in 2016 this neighborhood saw such prices.
Every week prices are going up by 50k in north shore, while BoC and government watches carefully or whatever.

But they were quick to tell homeowners they will not allow even a 10% correction.

#6 Faron on 04.15.21 at 1:15 pm

Thanks for the blog today. When posts make you vomit, I hope TurnerNation is there to hold back your hair.

Just read a fleet of articles on the BC casino/RE/big-6 bank/money laundering nexus. Wow. Very few guess right on the causes of crashes. Those that do do so by luck given that often numerous hypotheses are plausible at any given time but it only takes one to catalyze things and hindsight makes the “right” answer seem obvious. But, I wonder if a disturbance in the above nexus could be the pin?

Of course, given how many MBS the BoC owns and how much mortgage debt is on the banks’ balance sheets, not to mention the outsized influence banks surely have on gov’t policy, it seems very very unlikely that any action would be taken to correct how comfy the banks are now.

Just take your dividends and shaddup whydontcha.

#7 alexinvestor on 04.15.21 at 1:16 pm

S&P is going up 0.5 – 1% per day, and an astounding 15% on an annual basis for the past 10 years. This may be crazier than the housing market. Of course, the good thing about equities is that you can sell instantly.

#8 Dougie on 04.15.21 at 1:17 pm

Garth: Don’t throw up – it’s bad for you, and besides it makes a nasty mess. Simply close down the comments section, and let the amateurs find another forum on which to talk to themselves. You’ll feel much better.

#9 Prince Polo on 04.15.21 at 1:33 pm

The only liquidity that was needed on my end was the beer in my fridge to celebrate WFC being up 70% from purchase price. Is this what diamond hands feel like? Asking for a friend…

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 1:36 pm

Just talked with someone and he said that Canada is the Best Country in the World.
I thought he was joking. I know it’s a great country, but numero uno?
Some blog dogs here always call Canada Joke of the World.
So I googled up, and sure there it was:
https://www.usnews.com/info/blogs/press-room/articles/2021-04-13/canada-is-the-no-1-country-in-the-world-according-to-2021-best-countries

#11 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 1:41 pm

Yes, fear is a strong motivator in life.
I always say: The paranoid gazelle lives the longest.

#12 Billy Buoy on 04.15.21 at 1:51 pm

Good post yet we all know Powell is going to say anything to keep the general public calm while the 1% keep enjoying the fruits of his labour.

I’d love to see him interviewed with a lie detector from someone not on mass main stream media just for giggles.

He has a lot of wealthy people to answer to in the big club that none of us are apart of .

Just a big game and he does as told for the benefit of a few.

#13 Tudval on 04.15.21 at 1:52 pm

Who would have ever guessed boring Toronto will ever become as expensive as Hamburg or Amsterdam with their big attractions.. I don’t have to tell you about them. Sure, still a far cry from New York, Paris, London or HK – the most desirable places on earth… for those who enjoy a good riot once in a while.

#14 TurnerNation on 04.15.21 at 1:56 pm

Monster surge in USA long bond ETF TLT.US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives
“Rapid Covid testing in England may be scaled back over false positives”

– Not here! Severe government induced recession coming. Some say the Construction industry is to be Shutdown.
Hundreds of thousands will need UBI. That’s the point.

We must Slow the Spread of Capitalism and take Drastic Economic Action.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-cabinet-to-meet-amid-growing-calls-to-take-further-action-to-slow-spread-of-covid-19-1.5388690?
“In an interview with CTV News Toronto on Thursday, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca said that he believes “everything should be on the table,” including “things like temporarily closing down certain parts of the economy or introducing a curfew.”

— NYPD has robot dogs deployed. Yep developed by the military contractors. Don’t call this WW3, tho :-(

https://twitter.com/1800SPOILED/status/1381755654164074498?

— The current state of “News” today. A Board Member at a Drug Company is giving you advice. From CNBC.com

Dr. Scott Gottlieb believes Americans should have access to Covid ‘vaccine passports’
PUBLISHED MON, APR 12 20219:55 AM EDTUPDATED MON, APR 12 202110:31 AM EDT

“Gottlieb was elected as an independent member of the board of directors of Pfizer, Inc in June 2019.”

#15 Trojan House on 04.15.21 at 1:56 pm

“It’s why, eternally, grifters, spammers, charlatans and weasels use panic and scare tactics to flog their stuff.”

Sounds like real estate agents, used car salesmen and…politicians!

#16 Tudval on 04.15.21 at 1:58 pm

I hear it often – residents of pricey neighborhoods (say Leaside or High Park) have no merit for price appreciation, gentrification etc.. it’s all government’s merit, so why should they be entitled to tax-free capital gains? Just because it costs them upwards of 15 grand a year in property taxes and upkeep? But I think you have the same government “taking care” of places such as Scarborough and Finch&Jane. Tell you what, go there and live the good life for a fraction of the cost. And I’m not even so mean to send you there during the pandemic, you can wait until it’s over.

#17 Concerned Citizen on 04.15.21 at 2:00 pm

By some quick math, the S&P 500 is up roughly 30% since pre-COVID highs (~3,200 -> 4,160) – and it was by no means fairly valued pre-COVID either. Not only is it like COVID-19 never happened, it’s like COVID-19 was extremely bullish for stocks. Does that not give you any pause whatsoever? If this seems reasonable, why don’t we have economic shutdowns every year? We can all become billionaires overnight

BTW, it’s not just P/E ratios – a cyclical measure – that are extremely high. Check out price to sales, price to book, etc. P/Es will come down gradually as the recovery takes hold (but they’d have to come down like 50% to reach historical norms) but things like P/B, P/S take much longer to change.

The only thing propping things up is central bank money printing/asset buying. There will be hell to pay if they ever stop (which grows increasingly unlikely by the day, mind you). Blowing asset bubbles in order to try and increase our cost of living – quite a repugnant, dystopian policy goal if you ask me.

#18 LARRY APP on 04.15.21 at 2:03 pm

CATS ARE AWESOME.
CATS ARE AWESOME.
CATS ARE AWESOME.

#19 Blacksheep on 04.15.21 at 2:08 pm

Reximus # 81,

“Paper anything (PM’s for example) can be sold in infinite amounts if there is never a global audit, of the actual volume of a given commodity available.”
——
“you sound like every zerohedge dingbat i have ever known. I work in PM dealing. Heard this a million times. The ‘paper’ mkt is always the the way ‘they’ control the true price…yawn”
——————————————-
Ahhh…. “I work in PM dealing”

“Does the tremendous volume of paper silver lead to market manipulation?

One of the primary reasons for silver’s continued weakness is the tremendous volume of paper silver that exists, notably when compared to gold. Back in 2014 Bloomberg published an article speculating that the paper silver is roughly 250 times larger than the market for physical bullion.

At the time, silver was trading at around $20 per ounce so that claim was based on the assumption that with annual silver production coming in at one billion ounces, the market for bullion was valued at $20 billion. Yet Bloomberg hypothesized that the paper silver market was valued at $5 trillion which is 250 times the value of physical bullion.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4107734-what-is-wrong-silver-is-being-manipulated

#20 Freight Train on 04.15.21 at 2:18 pm

Nice blog Garth.

Here’s a few quotes to hammer this point home.

The primary cause of an individual investor’s failure is that they pay too much attention to what the stock market is doing currently. – Benjamin Graham

If you don’t feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then you shouldn’t own it for 10 minutes. – Warren Buffett

So ignore all those enormous percentage gains Garth quoted above.
Just like you should ignore enormous percentage declines (unless you capitalize on them and purchase quality trading at a discount).

If I’m ever feeling down, I just look at my dividends that just rolled in :)

#21 Ktown Breakdown on 04.15.21 at 2:22 pm

I am a big fan Garth but for every Garth there is a David Rosenberg bear so you have to admit it’s a little nerve racking for the average investor to wade through who may be right. This is especially the case when we have a once in a lifetime event occurring regularly whether it’s the pandemic, Texas freezing or trillions upon trillions of govt money causing bubbles everywhere. Also, I’ve been telling family and friends for 10 years not to buy real estate mainly as a result of what I have read here. This was a mistake at least here in Kingston. So ya, while I am undecided, I am sitting here in GIC’s yielding 2.5% on a multi million dollar portfolio accumulated from a lucky break in manufacturing (company gave me profit sharing and we hit 2 grand slams). While I may be losing a bit to inflation, we have enough money for ourselves and to help our kids when necessary but I sleep well at night. At the end of the day, it’s all about sleep isn’t it?

#22 G on 04.15.21 at 2:28 pm

Yes fear reduce the brain ability to critically think. More happy to be told what to do about some things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

Cats, Some of them fall asleep on your lap and you get trapped. LOL.

35 year s experience, Yes you did call at least one of the last resections before it happened I recall. As others told us after the fact no one could have predicted the drop.

So as far as I am concerned, clearly listening to your judgement on money maters and things is worth a lot. worth far more than what you charge people who choose to come hear, to hear what you have to tell them.
Keep up the good fight so to speak.
My guess is far more appreciate your efforts that you will ever know. Thank You.

#23 cuke and tomato picker on 04.15.21 at 2:36 pm

I also remember what was posted for the big crash on
April 14th and I dis see Jay Powell he said the U.S. will
hit 7 per cent. We will see.

#24 Jay on 04.15.21 at 2:37 pm

Sounds like the US will do fine, but what about us sheep up here in Canada.

Trudeau claiming that the UK is in a third wave even with vaccinations (not true) and therefore we need to keep restrictions in place as well once we all get vaccinated, therefore preventing any kind of recovery.

Freeland claiming that this pandemic is an opportunity to spend as much as she wants and bring in more socialism (and more taxes).

I think there will be a big difference in a US recovery where people are already getting on with their lives and here, where governments are doubling down on new restrictions days after stating how damaging they are to mental and physical health.

Yes i have my money in US equities and none in Canada and am not worried about the market but i still have to live here and am very quickly going crazy being a prisoner in my own home.

#25 Mike in Airdrie on 04.15.21 at 2:44 pm

I think David Rosenberg needs to read your blog. Why the media still quotes this perma-bear is beyond me.

As you say fear gets people’s attention. Eyeballs sell advertising. Follow the money!

#26 Brian Ripley on 04.15.21 at 2:46 pm

My MILLIONAIRE METRIC chart is up with March data: Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto Single Family Detached and a Millionaire all priced in CAD Ounces of Gold
http://www.chpc.biz/millionaire-metric.html

March 2021, the nominal price of gold dropped M/M 3% denominated in USD and down 4% in CAD. Over 10 years, the nominal price of gold has gone up 18% in USD and 51% in CAD.

Although the USD is flat today, the USD/CAD ratio is up with the drop in the CAD. The counter trend is the current rally in oil. When oil prices rise, one would expect gold prices to drop because the cost of mining increases… but gold miners are zooming today.

#27 Another Real Estate Insult on 04.15.21 at 2:47 pm

The subject of ‘blind bid auction’ has been raised quite a bit lately in the media and by some QC politicians. So a couple days ago, on April 13, Radio-Canada 6 o’clock news invited Mr. Dominic St-Pierre, V-P of Royal LePage Quebec to comment on blind auctions.

He said, this is a literally translated quote: “If buyers were able to know the amounts offered by other potential buyers, that would only create even greater competition between all the buyers.”

This was followed by Quebec’s minister of housing, Andree Laforest, who said she agreed with this statement.

#28 G on 04.15.21 at 3:00 pm

-I thought https://www.rt.com/ had couple interesting stories about Denmark today. They just like to help poor countries I guess?
-As well as other news concerning large countries with big army’s and WMD. Not a problem if it’s confided to saber ratting.
-Wanna move to Moscow? ‘Golden passport’ proposal means foreigners buying property or investing in Russia could soon earn residency
-Russia’s Putin gets booster shot of domestically produced…

#29 INXS on 04.15.21 at 3:01 pm

One of the best song lyrics – appropriate for moderators and mediators! INXS – Mediate…

>
Hallucinate, desegregate
Mediate, alleviate
Try not to hate
Love your mate
Don’t suffocate on your own hate
Designate your love as fate
A one-world state as human freight
The number eight, a white-black state
A gentle trait, the broken crate
A heavy weight or just too late?
Like pretty Kate has sex ornate
Now devastate, appreciate
Depreciate, fabricate
Emulate, the truth dilate
Special date, the animal we ate
Guilt debate, the edge serrate
A better rate, the youth irate
Deliberate, fascinate
Deviate, reinstate
Liberate to moderate
Recreate or detonate
Annihiliate, atomic fate
Mediate, clear the state
Activate, now radiate
A perfect state, food on plate
Gravitate, the Earth’s own weight
Designate your love as fate
At ninety-eight we all rotate
Hallucinate, desegregate…

#30 Millennial 1%er on 04.15.21 at 3:06 pm

Wait you have another job? I thought you wrote free articles as a living.

#31 TurnerNation on 04.15.21 at 3:11 pm

Mainly the Mainstream news links I post.
It is sickening stuff indeed once you fit the pieces to trend.

— Keen an eye on the food supply. Big global players are invested in Fake Meat (look up Impossible Meat backers). Tyson is even, too.

.CTV [email protected] · Apr 13
Cargill plant in London to shut down for two weeks immediately after large outbreak sees 82 workers contract COVID-19

— Q2 provincial travel bans coming right on schedule!?

.NEW: Premier Doug Ford asks people not to fly into or out of Ontario amid the worsening third wave.

— I’m sticking with prediction from last Aug that the sport stadiums here will remain closed and reopen only as needle centres. PFE stock is up 4.5% over a few days.

.Pfizer CEO says people will likely need a third dose of a #COVID19 vaccine within 12 months of getting “fully vaccinated.” (CNBC)

— How could the medical staffers cover shifts when they must be at home for children out of in-class learning? (Schools are closed)

Jean Marc Benoit MD @JeanmarcBenoit – Emergency Physician, amateur covid data analyst.
“Just so it’s crystal clear: we are shutting down schools because hospitals are overwhelmed. And hospitals are overwhelmed because schools are closed, so that staff with children cannot come to work”

#32 Dolce Vita on 04.15.21 at 3:17 pm

“… based not just on expectations and hopium, but on stats.”

And again, no truer words spoken.

————

Yesterday the European Union putting their future faith in mRNA vax’s in light of bad press from AstraZeneca and J&J.

“Astrazeneca goodbye, the EU books 1.8 billion mRna vaccines”

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/astrazeneca-addio-lue-prenota-18-miliardi-di-vaccini-mrna_it_60707676c5b6ed59527e25c0

My other vax pick, CureVac, thanks you. Up +17% in 5 days. I knew it would happen, it’s a German vax ordained by Tesla. Same efficacy as other mRNA vax’s, printed anywhere, does not need cryo freezing. What could go wrong?

Single stock picks are risky. Most of my meagre portfolio in ETF’s (happy for it).

Then again Pandemics need a cure and there are some things that can be called no brainers, vaccine during a Pandemic is one of them.

Have faith in human nature and the ability of My Liege to capture it day in day out.

———-

PS:

And yes LEECH/LEACH Canada, a chunk of those 1.8B doses likely to come your way as 82% of your vax to date has.

Because of Canada and others we have to wait longer for jabs in the EU.

Where would your vax effort be today Canada if it were not for the European Union?

https://i.imgur.com/vAkDzss.png

[out of date, it’s 10.4M to Canada as of yesterday & 21M to the UK per WSJ]

Altruism. The greater good.

Remember the EU when this all over Canada and what it did for you during the Pandemic and continues to do. The EU sends you the GOOD STUFF and not AZ like I got jabbed with (EU made) and Denmark hates it.

GRAZIE Canada.

———————

Just read the optimism in Garth’s words today.

…PREGO

#33 Repurchase Disagreement on 04.15.21 at 3:24 pm

Science Fact… If Canada disappeared tomorrow and all of us with it there would be no impact on the temperature of the planet, nor any weather pattern.

Either of O’Toole’s or T2’s ‘plans’ will have less than no impact, with apologies to Billy Preston (Nothing From Nothing leaves Nothing).

I recall a classic fake ad in an early ’90s issue of Frank…. It was for a baseball cap that said in small letters “We’re”, and then in big letters the acronym for Fed Up with Canadian Taxes (ignore ‘with’).

Even more now…

#34 Doug in London on 04.15.21 at 3:25 pm

Isn’t it odd that there’s this fear that the stock markets will crash but many people think nothing of paying way over asking price in a bidding war on an old house, in bad need of repairs, in the middle of nowhere. Why isn’t there more of this kind of fear in the housing market?

#35 Timmy on 04.15.21 at 3:27 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-aimco-names-former-cmhc-head-evan-siddall-as-next-chief-executive/#comments

Firstly, Kenny forced pension plans to be managed by AIMCO, who proceeded to lose huge sums of money due to their incompetence by betting on speculative investments. Now this realtor will be in charge of AIMCO. There is already at least one lawsuit against them. Albertans should be furious. Kenny can’t get tossed too soon.

#36 G on 04.15.21 at 3:30 pm

DELETED

#37 HoweStreet.com on 04.15.21 at 3:30 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Mortgage Rule Changes and Home Buyers.
Another 13.5% Rise in Canadian Home Prices coming?

https://www.howestreet.com/2021/04/mortgage-rule-changes-and-home-buyers-ross-kay/

#38 Dolce Vita on 04.15.21 at 3:31 pm

“… based not just on expectations and hopium, but on stats.”

Speaking of Stats, VAX Canada:

297,534 vax’d yesterday

9,103,443 single & double dosed

Only:

54,829,739 jabs to go*

All vax’d by October 16, 2021. Getting BETTER.

If Herd Immunity is 80%, that achieved on September 9, 2021.

* All: Cdn Population ≥ 15 yrs old = 31,966,591, 2 doses each.

———————

Lucky for you the EU is going to cook up another 1.8B doses that can you LEECH/LEACH from Canada.

#39 Dave on 04.15.21 at 3:32 pm

Hang on Garth, the S&P 500 has a PE of 46! It’s dividend is now less than 2%. Can you say “correction?

#40 Doug in London on 04.15.21 at 3:40 pm

So where’s this stock market crash? It’s near the end of the trading day on April 15, I checked my investments and they are doing just fine. Damn, I was hoping for some sales so I could use the dividends I’ve accumulated to score some good deals like I did 13 months ago. I’m so disappointed today.

#41 Dolce Vita on 04.15.21 at 3:46 pm

Variants Canada

Still high.

And my heart be still, AB decides to publish screening data for the variants. NOT a pretty picture:

https://i.imgur.com/vxLrdb2.png

I admit to engaging in Twitter shaming AB into publishing the data. My Province of birth. The people have a right to know and not be given a false sense of security when matters have gotten out of had.

They have.

Apparently, the Screening News Pony Express still has to make its way to BC:

https://i.imgur.com/mlj2clt.png

What a messed up Province in reporting BC is. False sense of security. A populace OK with a lying Government underreporting variant cases by 10X early March.

No screening. 58% test rate vs the National Average. Cdn hotbed of the Brazilian variant.

What could possibly go wrong?

Nothing.

‘Cause it’s the fault of the foreigners according to Comrade Horgan, shut down travel. Forgetting the cat is out of the bag but hey, makes it look like he’s doing something when it’s nothing more than a feint and the variants already there…well, we’ll never know just how much:

There they are.

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 3:51 pm

Nothing like a spring day like today in the Lower Mainland.
20 degrees. Not a cloud in the sky. A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.
There’s a reason why houses cost more here.

#43 Rook on 04.15.21 at 3:54 pm

How does that old stock trader’s saying go?

“Sell in May, and go away. And don’t come back until Saint Leger’s Day.”

Given how bubbly and frothy the market is, and how it appears to be pricing in, well, the roaring 20s, might May be a good time to hew to this piece of wisdom?

Take some profits on the S&P and other index plays, rebalance, then go away until September?

A knuckle-head mouth-breather like me should NOT be up 32% in the past 12 months. This has been like going to the casino and every spin comes up 00. At some point we have to revert to the mean.

Because as much as now is the best time ever to be in with both hands, both feet and as much credit as you can get, this ride has to end some time. All assets can’t keep going near-parabolic forever, can they? Or are we at the point where we’re throwing up our hands, buy the dip and hodl until the wheels fall off this ride?

#44 Faron on 04.15.21 at 3:58 pm

#28 G on 04.15.21 at 3:00 pm

There was a time that Russia was considered an adversary by conservatives. No longer in this quest to try to find anything that lines up with your (potentially Moscow constructed) echo chamber.

Carry on. Let RT distract you from Russia’s imminent invasion of Ukraine.

#45 Sail Away on 04.15.21 at 4:18 pm

#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 3:51 pm

Nothing like a spring day like today in the Lower Mainland.
20 degrees. Not a cloud in the sky. A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.

There’s a reason why houses cost more here.

———–

Hey, I’m doing the exact same thing looking at Mt. Baker, as well as watching the breeze gently riffle the bay. Prices here are about 1/4 to 1/3 those of Van.

Reposting this Paul St. Pierre description of a Vancouver family moving to Chilcotin ranch country:

‘…they bought the old Soap Lake Place, which suited them perfectly because of the view of Kappan Mountain, an asset most settlers thought came for free. [Colin] got a tractor, a matched pair of Bouvier Flanders dogs, twelve Mongolian pheasants that died, one goat that didn’t, and a sincere, enduring relationship with his banker.’

#46 VladTor on 04.15.21 at 4:20 pm

Garth…. The unemployment rate has crashed.

***************

Not agree!!! Here is compare March 2020 and March 2021. Everwhere in 2021 is less.

Here is Non Farm job details for March:

Leisure and hospitality employment rose 280,000 in March as pandemic-related restrictions were eased in many parts of the country. Almost two-thirds of the increase was in catering and drinking establishments (+176,000). Job growth also occurred in the arts, entertainment and recreation (+64,000) and housing (+40,000). Leisure and hospitality employment has declined by 3.1 million, or 18.5 percent, since February 2020.

Employment in both public and private education increased in March, reflecting the continued resumption of full-time education and other school activities in many parts of the country. Employment increased by 76,000 in local government education, 50,000 in state education, and 64,000 in private education. Since February 2020, the number of people employed in local government education (-594,000), public education (-270,000) and private education (-310,000) has declined.

Construction added 110,000 jobs in March after the previous month’s job cuts (-56,000) were likely related to the weather. In March, employment growth in the industry was widespread, with gains of 65,000 in specialized trade contractors, 27,000 in heavy and civil engineering and 18,000 in building construction. Construction employment is 182,000 below the February 2020 level.

Employment in professional and business services grew by 66,000 in a month. In March, employment in administrative and support services continued to grow (+37,000), although employment in the temporary assistance component remained virtually unchanged. The upward trend in employment also continued in the field of management and technical consulting services (+8,000), as well as in the design of computer systems and related services (+6,000).

Manufacturing employment rose 53,000 in March, with job growth in both durable goods (+30,000) and non-durables (+23,000). Manufacturing employment has dropped by 515,000 since February 2020.

Transport and warehousing services added 48,000 jobs in March. The employment of couriers and couriers (+17000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+13000), auxiliary activities in the field of transport (+6000) and air transportation (+6000) increased. Since February 2020, the employment of couriers and couriers has increased by 206,000 (or 23.3 percent), while employment has decreased by 112,000 (or 22.8 percent) in transit and ground passenger transport and by 104,000 (or 20.1 percent). In air transport.

Employment in other service industries increased by 42,000 in a month, reflecting growth in personal services and laundry (+19,000) and repair and maintenance (+18,000) jobs. Since February 2020, employment in other industries has dropped by 396,000.

Social assistance added 25,000 jobs in March, mainly in the area of ​​individual and family services (+20,000). Employment in social assistance is 306 thousand less than in February 2020.

Wholesale employment increased by 24,000 in March, while the number of jobs increased in both durable goods (+14,000) and non-durable goods (+10,000). Wholesale employment is 234 thousand less than in February 2020.

Retail trade created 23,000 jobs in March. Job growth in clothing and accessories stores (+16,000), car and parts stores (+13,000), and furniture and home goods stores (+6,000) was partially offset by losses in stores of building materials and garden supplies (-9,000) and general goods stores (-7,000). Retail employment is 381,000 below February 2020 levels.

Mining employment rose by 21,000 in March due to activities in support of the mining industry (+19,000). Mining employment is down 130,000 from a peak in January 2019.

Financial activities added 16,000 jobs in March. The increase in jobs in insurance companies and related fields of activity (+11,000) and real estate (+10,000) more than compensates for losses from credit intermediation and related activities (-7,000). There are 87,000 fewer jobs in finance since February 2020.

!!!!! The following point is especially interesting:

Leisure and hospitality employment rose 280,000 in March as pandemic-related restrictions were eased in many parts of the country. Almost two-thirds of the increase was in catering and drinking establishments (+176,000).

If we compare only this indicator with the data on the manufacturing industry, we can say, for example, like this:

The economy of bartenders, waiters and financial advisors created over 3.3 waiter and bartender jobs per miller in March!

*************

Garth ….The S&P 500 has advanced 49% in a year. The Dow is ahead 44%. Bay Street has added 37%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has returned 67%. …

************
Why you so optimistic Garth? I’m thinking b’s this numbers.

My question is Why? if real economy in US is so bad !

#47 Love_The_Cottage on 04.15.21 at 4:21 pm

#42 Rook on 04.15.21 at 3:54 pm
Take some profits on the S&P and other index plays, rebalance, then go away until September?
____
I don’t ever try to time the market, but I do rebalance. Likely time to take a little bit out of the U.S. market to get back to where I wanted to be. I’ll double check the numbers. Out until September? Nope, until the rebalancing numbers tells me to add. Removes all emotion.

#48 Stone on 04.15.21 at 4:24 pm

But don’t worry about your wealth. Not if it’s in the right place. You know where that is.

———

Indeed I do. It didn’t take very long for my wonderful and superb B&D portfolio to go over 10.0% to now sit at 11.0% ytd. Actually, it only took one week. This party shows no end and frankly, I don’t want it to end. If this is just the beginning of the reopening, I’m going to need a welder’s shield. Keep growing B&D. I’m rooting and tooting for you.

#49 Lee on 04.15.21 at 4:25 pm

The Wall Street Playboys say banks are finished, and crypto is where its at, or etherium, whatever that is. I bought a crypto etf for fun and its up 500% since I bought. I of course sold at 100% up.

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 4:34 pm

@#42 Paperback Pulp Producer

“A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.
There’s a reason why houses cost more here.”

+++

Authors that abuse adjectives are willing to pay more?

#51 Robert B on 04.15.21 at 4:35 pm

“”Sure, be afraid of the idiots around us who won’t get vaccinated””
Garth you have to be careful of calling people or clients idiots.

We are grateful for the returns but for one thing equities returns are not a representation of the economy. The numbers look great but I guess you do not see the damage created right across Canada. Giving free money across the board is not the solution.

There are 60 Canadian politicians and counting that are against the lockdowns. Many of them in areas where there are more suicides under 19years of age than covid deaths.

Listen to the the elected Canadian politicians speak….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OSwCmOSrzY

The people in the vid are loonies, extremists or outliers. Everyone has a moral, social and ethical responsibility to be vaccinated. Those who do not are selfish and cowardly. Do not join them. – Garth

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 4:37 pm

@#132 Disdainful Canuck
“Except that I’m late Gen X ;)”

+++
Odd, you sound just like my Boomer friends…
Drank the Kool-Aid ?
:)-

#53 stay at home? on 04.15.21 at 4:37 pm

I am seeing a lot of Ontario plates on the streets of Montreal this week.

#54 Shirl Clarts on 04.15.21 at 4:43 pm

Garth, are the gains in Preferreds ZPR and CPD done?

There was a drop near the end of today. When will they begin the cyclical decline?

I don’t understand the cycle – I want to sell high and re-buy them later when they drop a couple of bucks.

#55 Garth's Son Drake on 04.15.21 at 4:45 pm

Hey, how about that AC bailout. Westjet next.

I am all in on this market. Every last penny.

Buying up coinbase, more ether, Telsa. I am pretty much buying whatever Cathie Wood is buying.

14x earnings y/y feels great.

Paid off the mortgage with bitcoin like Jim Cramer.

Can’t wait to buy a new cyber truck with bitcoin.

#56 april on 04.15.21 at 4:57 pm

#37 – I think it was Remax spreading that little titbit not Ross Kay but have a listen for yourselves.

#57 Faron on 04.15.21 at 5:05 pm

#52 Shirl Clarts on 04.15.21 at 4:43 pm

“I want to sell high and re-buy them later when they drop a couple of bucks.”

Ya don’t say?

The quant I follow has highlighted the period from Monday last through Monday the 26th as a period of weakness in terms of supportive structures in the options market that can absorb selling impulses. As we saw today, that can mean romps up. There are a lot of valuation and positioning metrics that are flashing red here and a lot of ugly plumbing if things start to roll south like huge leverage and terrible liquidity. But, if there’s no catalyst, there’s no reaction. It took a pandemic to get a correction last year. Nothing on the docket right now, apparently. Maybe a few more Archegoses need to take down a bank? SPY $420 by 4/20 seems to be the joke that may not be a joke. That would represent a 12% gain — 36% annualized (SPY $510 if you are counting)… Why not?

#58 Faron on 04.15.21 at 5:15 pm

#51 Robert B on 04.15.21 at 4:35 pm

The people in the vid are loonies, extremists or outliers. Everyone has a moral, social and ethical responsibility to be vaccinated. Those who do not are selfish and cowardly. Do not join them. – Garth

In support of Garth here, a relative of mine works as a nurse practitioner in elderly care homes in the US. The residents have all been vaccinated. There have been zero negative effects and her caseload as gone from 100% COVID to 0% COVID and 100% normal stuff. Pre vax, she saw triplicate repeat infections, death and other badness, not the least of which was the inability for people to interact with loved ones. The vaccines work extremely well and have already made massive, meaningful and overwhelmingly positive changes in people’s lives and restored normalcy. Not getting vaxxed can only be viewed as selfishness blended with cowardice.

#59 espressobob on 04.15.21 at 5:17 pm

When your turn comes up, take a jab of whatever is available.

Dump the bullshit mentality and be part of the solution.

Thank you…

#60 Bezengy on 04.15.21 at 5:24 pm

Bankrupt Laurentian University Solidarity Website.

https://northernsolidarity.ca/en/

“Due to our own reckless mismanagement we will need a government bailout”. At least they’ve nailed down the root cause of the problem.

Seriously, is there a single problem in this country that can be fixed without just throwing more money at the problem?

#61 Stone on 04.15.21 at 5:27 pm

#55 Garth’s Son Drake on 04.15.21 at 4:45 pm
Hey, how about that AC bailout. Westjet next.

I am all in on this market. Every last penny.

Buying up coinbase, more ether, Telsa. I am pretty much buying whatever Cathie Wood is buying.

14x earnings y/y feels great.

Paid off the mortgage with bitcoin like Jim Cramer.

Can’t wait to buy a new cyber truck with bitcoin.

———

Why would Coinbase list on a public exchange to get fiat currency for their shares?

Is this all a ponzi?

Feels like it.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 5:51 pm

@#54 Shirl Charts
“I don’t understand the cycle – I want to sell high and re-buy them later when they drop a couple of bucks.”

++++

Garth loaned me his crystal ball and I looked for the answers to all your questions…

Yes

#63 Chris L on 04.15.21 at 5:52 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#64 YVR 60% Crash on 04.15.21 at 5:55 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 1:36 pm

Just talked with someone and he said that Canada is the Best Country in the World.
I thought he was joking. I know it’s a great country, but numero uno?
Some blog dogs here always call Canada Joke of the World.
So I googled up, and sure there it was:
https://www.usnews.com/info/blogs/press-room/articles/2021-04-13/canada-is-the-no-1-country-in-the-world-according-to-2021-best-countries
—————————————

“Canada ranks No. 1 in quality of life and social purpose. It is also perceived as having a good job market, caring about human rights and is committed to social justice.
Additionally, the country finished No. 1 in being viewed as not corrupt and respecting property rights. ”

I read it halfway through and and try not to throw up. It’s a challenge.

#65 Andrewski on 04.15.21 at 6:05 pm

My Dad often said, Fear is an an acronym for: False Evidence Appearing Real.

#66 Penny Henny on 04.15.21 at 6:08 pm

Everyone has a moral, social and ethical responsibility to be vaccinated. Those who do not are selfish and cowardly. Do not join them. – Garth
//////////////

I haven’t notice you mention it, when did you get yours Garth? My wife got her’s today in Brampton. They had many openings available for those 55 and over.

#67 S.Bby on 04.15.21 at 6:14 pm

When Powell has to go on 60 Minutes to promote his agenda there is something amiss. If the FED ever stops their money printing escapades (which they cannot ever stop now) things will revert to where they should be.

BTW Random Length lumber hit an all time high of $1,260 US and it’s still going up.

All recent Fed chairs have done 60 Minutes. – Garth

#68 NDee on 04.15.21 at 6:18 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#69 espressobob on 04.15.21 at 6:27 pm

Nasty shit from the past.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Roll up your sleeve.

#70 pPrasseur on 04.15.21 at 6:32 pm

Bought BAC for 6 bucks and pennies during the GFC (among other such bargains)!

No wonder I could retire and my TFSA is now well passed 200K!!

#71 Flop... on 04.15.21 at 6:34 pm

With Canadian politician Will Amos the latest public figure to be zoomed and caught naked on a parliamentary video call, this is another reason to get the jab so these guys can got back to their offices and have a chock-a-block parliament, or least meet at their local Starbucks.

CNN shouldn’t be going too hard on this guy, lest someone brings up Jeffrey Toobin

The band OMC probably had it right in their one hit wonder “How Bizarre.”

Everytime I look around, it’s in my face…

M46BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C2cMG33mWVY

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 7:01 pm

@#60 Bezengy
““Due to our own reckless mismanagement we will need a government bailout”. At least they’ve nailed down the root cause of the problem.”

++++

Well we may be seeing more of these self flagellation confessionals in the years to come with municipal, provincial and federal govt employee pensions…….

#73 the Jaguar on 04.15.21 at 7:03 pm

@#28 G on 04.15.21 at 3:00 pm

Interesting. Doesn’t Sochi on the Black Sea coast have a humid, subtropical climate?

Here’s an interesting read that offers a different viewpoint from most of the media.

https://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo/

P.S. All you Russian haters just leave me alone.
In the words (lyrics) of Ray Stevens ( The Streak):
‘Don’t look Ethel!’

Isn’t today also the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic? With the Liberal budget coming down on Monday it seems like more than an omen…

#74 Cici on 04.15.21 at 7:07 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 1:36 pm
Just talked with someone and he said that Canada is the Best Country in the World.
I thought he was joking. I know it’s a great country, but numero uno?
Some blog dogs here always call Canada Joke of the World.
So I googled up, and sure there it was:
https://www.usnews.com/info/blogs/press-room/articles/2021-04-13/canada-is-the-no-1-country-in-the-world-according-to-2021-best-countries
____________________________________________

You do realize that’s probably a paid avert-article, right?

#75 The West on 04.15.21 at 7:12 pm

So – I guess we’re all good on the economic front….

Anybody else think WW3 is going to start in Eastern Europe in the coming months?

Annnnnnnnnnd go:

#76 greaterfool on 04.15.21 at 7:13 pm

not surprised with the good earning numbers, especially those from big banks. the question is, how much gain was contributed by the printed-money?

it seems printing-money can solve any problems, (can’t believe inflation is moderate, I feel everything is much more expensive now )
–> which means the rate will remain low for a fairly long period (if it will ever going up),
–> which means the price of assets (R.E. and financial assets) will be going up (forever)
–> which means those winners of blind auctions are actually right?

Confused here, would like to hear your thoughts. thanks

You suffer recency bias. – Garth

#77 MicroGX on 04.15.21 at 7:29 pm

Thanks again Garth, for all you do. Your Consistancy is strangely comforting.

#78 Adam on 04.15.21 at 7:29 pm

So why is it cool for stocks to move up 50% and PEs to rise bust housing is just too crazy. Oh yeah and one of those is tax free.

Society loses when houses are commoditized. You will see. – Garth

#79 Seve French on 04.15.21 at 7:31 pm

Well speaking personally, from 20 January 2020, to 28 Nov. 2020, my DIY ETF B&D portfolio churned out… half a percent gain (+ 0.47%).

Not a loss, but you would have had to be pretty lucky to reach a 7% gain through 2020.

I was also hit with some currency headwinds in Australia.

Consistency, not luck. – Garth

#80 Entrepreneur on 04.15.21 at 7:34 pm

#33 Repurcase Disagreement…If Canada disappeared tomorrow and all of us in it disappeared would there be no impact on the temperature of the planet nor any weather pattern.

The answer to that question: If Canada disappeared with all of us Canadians would the rest of the world stop existing? No, as Canada is only a small part of the whole problem. Think globally. But this does not mean to go along, keep pretending that the planet does not matter.

The covid pandemic is definitly bringing fear with all the restrictions, lockdowns. Remember in Wuhan when it first came known, the fear in the doctors eyes with ridgid-scared body language and the endless footages of ICU being overwhelmed. The reporting scared many.

Well, I am not feeling that same fear from the news media here. The reporting shows doctors reporting but they do not have that urgent fear, the body language is relaxed, and the ICU reporting looks like any other day.

As for the reporting numbers, I have heard some of the testing could be unreliable.

My take, but third wave coming, mask, distance, will see.

#81 Faron on 04.15.21 at 7:35 pm

#72 the Jaguar on 04.15.21 at 7:03 pm

@#28 G on 04.15.21 at 3:00 pm

Russia’s fine, and I certainly grant that they don’t get much benefit of the doubt in most people’s eyes. But you have to be aware that sources such as RT are at least as biased as the Fox news or CNNs out there. To be taken with much salt. There aren’t innocents on either side, but at least we (meaning the US) don’t kill our correspondents (most of the time). We save the killing for other things.

#82 theoryAndPractice on 04.15.21 at 7:46 pm

#21 Ktown Breakdown on 04.15.21 at 2:22 pm

Very simple , whatever masses (MSM) are telling you to do , do the other way around, you don’t even need to know the subject!

#83 Barb on 04.15.21 at 7:49 pm

We get our vaccine tomorrow. Yay!

#84 Don Guillermo on 04.15.21 at 7:50 pm

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 3:51 pm
Nothing like a spring day like today in the Lower Mainland.
20 degrees. Not a cloud in the sky. A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.
There’s a reason why houses cost more here
**************************************
Yes, lived there for a few years and every once in a while they do have “that” day.

#85 Canada on 04.15.21 at 7:56 pm

“Canada ranks No. 1 in quality of life and social purpose. It is also perceived as having a good job market, caring about human rights and is committed to social justice.
Additionally, the country finished No. 1 in being viewed as not corrupt and respecting property rights. ”

……..

good job market? Canada cant even make its own car. We follow the American market; they go downhill , Canada goes downhill . Canada needs USA or the poor soul would be lost

#86 Lumber on 04.15.21 at 8:17 pm

If the markets are roaring ahead, why not real estate..? Oh wait, real estate is up too. So if corporations are raking in so much money, why can’t regular folks afford a home? Oh right, because even though corporate earnings are up, salaries are not. Wouldn’t it curl your hair if salaries were indexed to the SP500 instead of ‘inflation..?’

#87 Drill Baby Drill on 04.15.21 at 8:23 pm

“Up to four million Americans are being vaccinated daily.” And what is Canada 40K maybe. Sorry folks We are not a 1st world country.

#88 Ballingsford on 04.15.21 at 8:41 pm

You make sense. Just buy.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 8:48 pm

#82 Don Guillermo on 04.15.21 at 7:50 pm
#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 3:51 pm
Nothing like a spring day like today in the Lower Mainland.
20 degrees. Not a cloud in the sky. A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.
There’s a reason why houses cost more here
**************************************
Yes, lived there for a few years and every once in a while they do have “that” day.
—————
From now one, until about the end of October, every day is pretty much the same.
Unlike other countries were the heat is unbearable and people have to take a siesta during the day.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 8:51 pm

#85 Drill Baby Drill on 04.15.21 at 8:23 pm
“Up to four million Americans are being vaccinated daily.” And what is Canada 40K maybe. Sorry folks We are not a 1st world country.
——————
We are about on par with Germany.
So, by your logic, Germany is not a 1st world country.

#91 Mostly peaceful on 04.15.21 at 8:51 pm

Since this blog is run by a dog lover I thought I would provide this link to one of the greatest movies about the relationship between a man and his dog, enjoy. Love your blog. https://youtu.be/PCDLwKZN8g0

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 8:57 pm

The Taxman Commeth.
Many people spent the CERB money on Robin Hood, forgetting that they had to pay taxes on the hand-outs.
Now, many don’t have enough money left to pay the piper.

#93 Wrk.dover on 04.15.21 at 9:05 pm

#2 Sheesh on 04.15.21 at 12:50 pm
Hey Sail Away, I read this and thought of your recent kitschy art purchase.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/dhl-class-action-hidden-fees-1.5987195

—————————————————–

I had a falling out with an otherwise excellent supplier I use in UK over this.

I just forwarded this link to the shipping dept. to tell them that ‘the customer is always right!’

I’d like to fly to UK and rub the shipping chiefs nose on this link. Blood boiling, Sheesh….big thanks.

#94 Figmund Sreud on 04.15.21 at 9:11 pm

The S&P 500 has advanced 49% in a year. The Dow is ahead 44%. Bay Street has added 37%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has returned 67%.
____________________________

Yep, … all true. Hallelujah! Hence three big cheers to all those who made all their investments on April 15, 2020, … or thereabouts!

Five cheers, however, for all those who stepped into market bit earlier: … like on March 23, 2020, or close to it!

Of course, … all those lost souls, who made their purchases on February 18, 2020, … or thereabouts, … one, … most quiet – mousy, peeps-quickly cheer!

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 9:26 pm

@#90 Payout Problems
“The Taxman Commeth.
Many people spent the CERB money on Robin Hood, forgetting that they had to pay taxes on the hand-outs.
Now, many don’t have enough money left to pay the piper.”

++++

Ahhhhh yessss.

The spendthrift CERBians are realizing they have to pay taxes on that “free money”.

I’m shocked…..

Well, hopefully they remember that at election time…but with the fiscal attention span of fruit flies over an empty beer can……I doubt it .

#96 Genbizx on 04.15.21 at 9:28 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#97 Steve French on 04.15.21 at 9:29 pm

A gain of over 7% in 2020 is enviable…

2019 was v. good, although my DIY B&D Portfolio churned out only a 0.5% total gain from Jan. 20-Nov. 28, 2020.

Though I was also hit with some currency headwinds in the Land Down Under.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 9:57 pm

@#95 Steve French
“Though I was also hit with some currency headwinds in the Land Down Under.”

++++

Did you eat Aussie comfort food aka a Vegemite sandwich?

#99 TCHome on 04.15.21 at 10:00 pm

I wonder if one gets the shot and passes out while driving, if your insurance will cover it?

#100 Apocalypse NOW on 04.15.21 at 10:01 pm

The worst is yet to come.

PREPARE

#101 Unhinged Trader on 04.15.21 at 10:07 pm

@Garth
>In the entirely of my financial career, which now spans 35 years (yikes), I’ve seen the same movie repeatedly. Market advances are the norm. Market corrections are the exception. The economy expands far more often and substantially than it ever contracts.

Well, except for Japan. And any other mature economy with full saturation and no ability to import millions of new people to feign “growth”.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.15.21 at 10:18 pm

@#98 A POX when?
“The worst is yet to come”

++++

The worst is behind us SmallPoxy.
The vaccines are finally rolling out.
I’m getting mine tomorrow.

The only thing concerning me right now is the dramatic stuttering wheezer in charge and Finance Minister who looks at the pandemic as a political opportunity to socially reinvent Canada for “The Better” ….
Whatever that is.

#103 Km on 04.15.21 at 10:29 pm

Good lord I hope we get vaccinations going quickly. I disagree with the shut downs etc and think it has been done in such a ridiculous manner if you are not questioning government you are a fool. That being said I have no issue with vaccinations being done and find it pathetic that it is taking this long. Total incompetence combined with the complete lack of caring about handing out money to people and corps that did not need it and turning a blind eye to a housing bubble so big the rest of the world is laughing at us.

#104 Lead Paint on 04.15.21 at 10:52 pm

#83 Canada on 04.15.21 at 7:56 pm

Canadians chant in unison:
“We’re #1 at social purpose!”
“We’re #1 at social purpose!”
“We’re #1 at social purpose!”

Suck on that, rest of the world.

#105 Yukon Elvis on 04.15.21 at 10:56 pm

#72 the Jaguar on 04.15.21 at 7:03 pm
@#28 G on 04.15.21 at 3:00 pm

Interesting. Doesn’t Sochi on the Black Sea coast have a humid, subtropical climate?

Here’s an interesting read that offers a different viewpoint from most of the media.

https://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo/
……………

Awesome link Jag. Very good read. New bookmark for me.

#106 Don Guillermo on 04.15.21 at 11:04 pm

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 8:48 pm
#82 Don Guillermo on 04.15.21 at 7:50 pm
#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.15.21 at 3:51 pm
Nothing like a spring day like today in the Lower Mainland.
20 degrees. Not a cloud in the sky. A light breeze feathers my cheeks.
From my balcony I can see the majestic snow cone that is Mt. Baker, crystal clear.
There’s a reason why houses cost more here
**************************************
Yes, lived there for a few years and every once in a while they do have “that” day.
—————
From now one, until about the end of October, every day is pretty much the same.
Unlike other countries were the heat is unbearable and people have to take a siesta during the day.
***********************************
Once again, you’re great with stereotyping but not so great with experience. I’ve actually lived in the LML through summers so know better. Your siesta thing is funny though.

#107 Bdwy on 04.15.21 at 11:08 pm

The S&P 500 has advanced 49% in a year. The Dow is ahead 44%. Bay Street has added 37%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has returned 67%
.. ……

Hey, it’s not a race, i heard somewhere.

And if it is, the winner today is the canine, aka pooch, hound, mutt as is much adored here, but… not the good sweet dogs in the pictures but the bad dog. That stupid doggy coin just did 120% since noonish today. 150x over past year. Holy flock.

This is the most insane bubble ever. Tulips x 1000. Tech x 100.

Land is cheap everywhere when ‘nothing'(but a bit of code) hits multi trillion cap. The ONLY thing crypto really has going for it is the 21m fixed supply. They are not making any more. What else ? Land.
Land is useful. Crypto, not so much.

Brk.b or etfs are great too , but the profitable business of tomorrow may change from today. garth and warren are both good

#108 45north on 04.15.21 at 11:13 pm

The agency said officers showed up and heard a woman screaming inside.
The officers breached the door and followed the sounds of the screams to the garage, the SIU said.
There they found a man in the driver’s seat of a car and a woman in the back seat.
“There was an interaction, and two officers discharged their firearms in the direction of the vehicle,” the SIU said in a statement.

sounds like quite a story

why isn’t it?

https://ottawacitizen.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/woman-kidnapped-after-incident-with-officers-peel-regional-police-say/wcm/fd5d370b-d39c-472b-aab7-98d07176b06c

#109 gfd on 04.16.21 at 12:20 am

Garth, with all my respect, delete if you must, but do not edit.

I put an offer on a 1-acre lot tonight with a listing agent who passed it over to another agent from the same office. Now listen to what these two were able to come up with. I believe I am the sole offer for this property since it just came up on the market about 2 days ago, they cooked up a competing offer with someone from within their office. I am not sure how legal this is, but I am not going to lose my sleep over it. Despite their request for 48 hours irrevocable at 6 pm we only gave them 24 hours, a fair amount based on 30-day comparables but less than the asking, with zoning confirmation as the only condition. Simply, money in the bank. At about 9 pm they already asked if I want to top it up because of the “competing offer”. I will top up or rather top it less than my original offer. The moral of the story is that you CANNOT buy real estate with these crooks unless proper regulations are in place or you don’t mind taking it up to your rear cavity.

Edited for libel. Suck it up. – Garth

#110 espressobob on 04.16.21 at 12:29 am

#98 Apocalypse NOW

It’s so true. Prepare for the comment section. God help us…

#111 Wrk.dover on 04.16.21 at 5:21 am

#97 TCHome on 04.15.21 at 10:00 pm
I wonder if one gets the shot and passes out while driving, if your insurance will cover it?

————————————-

I wonder if you die in the ICU without the vaccine if your life insurance should be valid?

See what I did there?

#112 the Jaguar on 04.16.21 at 8:14 am

We are ‘honoured’. If only we could snag Nigel Wright, too.

“AIMCO names Evan Siddall as CEO
• Evan Siddall, the former head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., will take over as president and chief executive officer of Alberta Investment Management Corp. as a leadership overhaul of the province’s public pension fund manager continues.

“I am delighted to join Alberta Investment Management Corporation as chief executive office and further strengthen the organization’s commitment to its clients across al aspects of its business,” Siddall said in a release Thursday.
AIMCO manages the province’s $118.6-billion public sector pension fund.”

#113 Stone on 04.16.21 at 9:30 am

#103 Km on 04.15.21 at 10:29 pm
Good lord I hope we get vaccinations going quickly. I disagree with the shut downs etc and think it has been done in such a ridiculous manner if you are not questioning government you are a fool. That being said I have no issue with vaccinations being done and find it pathetic that it is taking this long. Total incompetence combined with the complete lack of caring about handing out money to people and corps that did not need it and turning a blind eye to a housing bubble so big the rest of the world is laughing at us.

———

The rest if the world isn’t laughing at us. They don’t even know we exist. Or they think we’re part of the US. Either way, they have their own problems to deal with. Why would they be paying attention to us.

#114 DON on 04.16.21 at 10:04 am

Actions speak louder than words.

https://www.thebalance.com/2007-financial-crisis-overview-3306138

When will the fed tell us things are not so peachy. Have they ever told us.

#115 Dharma Bum on 04.16.21 at 11:12 am

I’m lucky to have escaped Ontario during their most ludicrous lock down measures since the pandemic began.
It sickens me to hear the news of what’s going on there.
I wonder, if a curfew is imposed, if they’ll let me go home from the airport when I get back. Hahahahaha. Idiots.

In the meantime, I woke up earlier today than I have in the last 4 years. Just to get some first light photographs of the mountains around Canmore, Alberta. Before the rest of the tourists start crawling around.

I saw a few magnificent bull elk. Or deer bucks.
I don’t know the difference.
But I got some great photos of them.

Beats the lockdown measures back home.

#116 Chris Serran on 04.16.21 at 11:13 am

“Up to four million Americans are being vaccinated daily.” And what is Canada 40K maybe. Sorry folks We are not a 1st world country.”

Actually Drill Baby, if you actually take 2 seconds and look up the Covid 19 Tracker Canada, you will see we are regularly vaccinating about 300 thousand per day – so on a per capita basis with the US slightly under 10 x our population, we are around 3 million jabs per day. So yes, we are a little behind, but ramping up every week and now vacinating at one of the highest per capita rates in the world. Why do you try to push such a negative false agenda? Sound very Trumpian. Maybe your name should be Donny Wannabe?

#117 Dan in Nanaimo on 04.16.21 at 11:19 am

Addressing the confidence factor – since The FED isn’t ending QE anytime soon, a great opportunity remains to exploit all avenues of capturing profits.

That said, I believe the future belongs to China once they successfully implement a gold backed Yuan alongside their CBDC platform.

And that future will come very quickly. Which, of course, will present great opportunities.

When that time comes, fade the FED and embrace China fully

Until then

#118 Mike in Edm on 04.16.21 at 11:23 am

Hey Garth, can you comment on how / why JP Morgan just issued $13bill in bonds the day after their massive knocked-it-out-of-the-park earnings report? If they just killed it with earnings, why would they need to issue all those bonds? (Genuine question, i’m not some conspiracist)

#119 Future Expatriate on 04.16.21 at 11:53 am

There are always economic doomsayers, but they reallly come out of the woodwork when liberals are in power. Truth is… the economy always does better under liberals, especially in America, because you get less cronyism, kickbacks, political graft and political prostitution. AKA BUSINESS as usual. This economic success of course fires up the right wing crapaganda machine, and PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO!!!!! BUY GOLD!!

Luckily, almost everyone knows the score except paranoid idiots. And they usually won’t get vaccinated either, so win-win.

Pay no attention to the endtimers. It’s only the end times for THEM. The rest of us will do quite fine, thanks all the same.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.21 at 12:42 pm

@#115 Dharma Bum

“I saw a few magnificent bull elk. Or deer bucks.
I don’t know the difference.
But I got some great photos of them.”

+++

I believe they’re Elk.
Golfed in Canmore about 20 years ago.
Elk all over the fairways.
The bottom of the valley is a migratory route for all the big game including Grizz….
Golf course had huge yellow burned grass stains everywhere.
I thought the groundskeepers had over fertilized the grass …….and then I saw an elk pee……

#121 Apocalypse NOW on 04.16.21 at 12:42 pm

#118

Hey Garth, can you comment on how / why JP Morgan just issued $13bill in bonds the day after their massive knocked-it-out-of-the-park earnings report? If they just killed it with earnings, why would they need to issue all those bonds? (Genuine question, i’m not some conspiracist)

———————————-

Read between the lines.

PREPARE

#122 Phylis on 04.16.21 at 1:05 pm

#118 Mike in Edm on 04.16.21 at 11:23 am
Hey Garth, can you comment on how / why JP Morgan just issued $13bill in bonds the day after their massive knocked-it-out-of-the-park earnings report? If they just killed it with earnings, why would they need to issue all those bonds? (Genuine question, i’m not some conspiracist)
Xxxxxxx
My simple view is that with low rates, now is a good time to raise cash. This supports the idea that rates will be higher in the near future.

#123 Faron on 04.16.21 at 2:15 pm

#122 Phylis on 04.16.21 at 1:05 pm

#118 Mike in Edm on 04.16.21 at 11:23 am
Hey Garth, can you comment on how / why JP Morgan just issued $13bill in bonds the day after their massive knocked-it-out-of-the-park earnings report? If they just killed it with earnings, why would they need to issue all those bonds? (Genuine question, i’m not some conspiracist)
Xxxxxxx
My simple view is that with low rates, now is a good time to raise cash. This supports the idea that rates will be higher in the near future.

Stonker results probably didn’t hurt their credit rating further keeping the rates on those bonds low.

#124 Sail Away on 04.16.21 at 2:37 pm

#123 Faron on 04.16.21 at 2:15 pm
#122 Phylis on 04.16.21 at 1:05 pm
#118 Mike in Edm on 04.16.21 at 11:23 am

Hey Garth, can you comment on how / why JP Morgan just issued $13bill in bonds the day after their massive knocked-it-out-of-the-park earnings report? If they just killed it with earnings, why would they need to issue all those bonds? (Genuine question, i’m not some conspiracist)

———-

My simple view is that with low rates, now is a good time to raise cash. This supports the idea that rates will be higher in the near future.

———-

Stonker results probably didn’t hurt their credit rating further keeping the rates on those bonds low.

———-

Yep. JP knew what their results would be well ahead of the announcement, so prepared the bond issue to ride the wave with better rating/lower rate. Probably saved themselves a billion dollars. Savvy move. Good company to own.