The loonie

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

The four most common questions I receive from clients are: 1) will the equity markets and my portfolio be up this year; 2) how I can pay less in taxes; 3) how do you maintain your boyish good looks and chiseled abs when you’re so busy looking after clients; and 4) where is the Canadian dollar headed. I look forward to the thrashing I’ll receive on the third question in the comments section but today I’ll address the last question on where the Canadian dollar is headed.

The Canadian dollar has been on a tear! Since bottoming around 69 cents to the US dollar last March, it’s rallied over 15% to roughly 80 cents currently. The strength in the Canadian dollar can be attributed to a few key factors.

First, oil prices have come back strongly since going negative for a day last March (that’s one for the books!). Second, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has announced that it will start winding down its emergency bond buying program in the coming months, being the first major central bank to end these emergency programs. And third, general weakness in the US dollar versus most currencies with the Federal Reserve keeping the ‘pedal to the metal’ by continuing to inject massive sums of monetary stimulus through their bond buying programs.

But stepping back the Canadian dollar has been largely range-bound for over six years now. Since oil prices collapsed from over $100/bl in 2014 it has taken the Canadian dollar down with it, falling from par or $1 to a low of $0.685 in 2016 (there was a re-test of these lows in March of last year). So from the chart below you can see the CAD has been range-bound between roughly $0.70 (technical support) and $0.80 cents (technical resistance).

Question then is: is the CAD on the verge of a big breakout or is it set for more range-bound trading?

Canadian Dollar Has Been Range-bound for Years

Source: Stockcharts, Turner Investments

Let’s start with oil prices.

While there are times when the relationship between the Canadian dollar and oil prices will disconnect or weaken, over the longhaul, oil prices still play a prominent role in where our dollar goes. As oil prices have come roaring back, in large part, due to expectations for higher demand when we get control of Covid, this has helped to drive our dollar higher as well.

Last year I predicted that oil prices would recover back to $60/bl where we currently stand. I’m getting more bullish on commodities as demand and inflation pick up (commodities do well in an inflationary environment) so we could see oil prices move a bit higher (possibly hit $70/bl this year), but I do not see oil prices hitting $90-100/bl any time soon so upside is fairly limited from here. As such, this should help to limit further upside in the Canadian dollar.

CAD Strongly Correlates With Oil Prices

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Next up is the ‘interest rate differential’ or the difference in government bond yields between Canada and the US. If our interest rates are higher than the US (as they are currently) then this is bullish for the Canadian dollar.

With the BoC announcing that it will be winding down its bond buying programs well ahead of the Federal Reserve, this has led to an increase in Canadian bond yields and our interest rates being higher than the US, which is supportive of the dollar. However, the BoC will still likely stay close to the Fed’s policies since they can’t risk hiking rates ahead of the US and our dollar moving much higher. Given this view I don’t see our interest rates moving materially higher than the US, so this should also help to limit further upside in the CAD.

Lastly, based on these factors (oil prices and interest rates), I developed a financial model that helps forecast ‘fair value’ of the Canadian dollar. Based on my expectations for oil prices and interest rates, my model suggests fair value at 81 cents, very close to its current level. Once again this suggest limited upside in the CAD from current levels.

Canadian Dollar Model Suggests Fair Value of 81 Cents

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Ok, time to bring it on home!

Based on my expectations for the factors discussed above, my financial model that suggests limited upside, and the range-bound trading pattern of the Canadian dollar, odds are we’re closer to a short-term top than a major breakout to the upside. Given this view we recommend investors/clients to stick with their US dollar investments and you may want to consider buying some US dollars for that vacation that you’re likely to go on next year as Covid begins to retreat.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

104 comments ↓

#1 Steven Rowlandson on 04.10.21 at 9:02 am

The Loonie. A Canadian unit of measure of debt.

#2 TurnerNation on 04.10.21 at 9:07 am

Where’s ‘Emma Zaun’ CUPE Shop Steward. The New Guys are forced to pump out blog posts even in the wee hours of the weekend ;-)

#98 Pete on 04.09.21 at 5:32 pm. Props to you. Could it be limiting of the ‘essential items’ for purchase and the Economic Shuts downs is to mask just that – supply chain issues? Suez Canal blockage sure smelled like a Global stunt. Testing the waters so to speak.

Supply & Demand:
In the last crash 2008 GFC the Supply (of Credit) was being limited.
Today, credit is like water. What’s being forcefully constrained is the Demand side
(Economic Shutdowns, #stayhome – from Day 1).

Or not. Seen elsewhere:
“What life was like under USSR Soviet occupation in the “satellite states”
You needed the correct papers and clearance to purchase many of the items in the store
everything was on display you could see it all and could only buy what your papers said you could buy
Welcome to communism – that’s exactly how they operate – dangle it in your face out of reach
so you are reminded who holds the power”

—————

– What’s really going? Some say the riots, looting and takeover zones in the USA are all in the strategic zones (small business areas) which are being cleared out, then of course New development takes place. Cha-ching.
Look around your Big City in Kanada. It’s economically bom’d and blackened and shuttered. What’s next?
What activity never was locked down? It’s the New Condo construction.

– Rhymes with ‘Pebble’ media outlet. Half WWE stunts, half info. Recommend only the vids on small business owners.
Such as: B.C. business owners flood streets of Vancouver to protest latest COVID-19 restrictions

#3 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 04.10.21 at 9:26 am

Let’s also add Q5) should I convert my investment CAD to USD?

The Liberals are going to bazooka the deficit into an even larger cratering hole for several years (at which point, I’d like to keep at least one annual US vacay on the calendar, without breaking the CAD bank!)

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.21 at 9:29 am

Interesting synopsis Ryan.
I’ll leave your six pack alone.

Do you think another year of Liberal billion dollar bonfires adding to the national debt pre election might affect the Canuck dollar?

#5 Johnny he Goode on 04.10.21 at 9:30 am

Fair call on the dollar range bound. Trudeaus borrow and spend caps any enthusiasm after the natural link to oil has priced in. The Trudeau economy is fake, there’s no momentum building, no foreign interest investing, quite the opposite, thus no demand for $ CDN even as you say BOC is run by Trudeau and there’s no rate increases on the horizon. And let’s face it, being a CDC pariah state and 59 in vaccine distribution at the same time as Covid sweeps in killing thousands, we aren’t a popular destination. Very little international hope with Trudeau in office. Trudeau is still gutting the resource industry so Canada won’t benefit from a commodity play.

Now then, your USD commodity call, I agree. So what’s the easy play. There’s gold of course, what about shotgunning DBC?

#6 greaterfool on 04.10.21 at 9:38 am

does a higher CAD to USD help keep the inflation low? why Canada CB would concern a higher CAD? we buy more from U.S. then sell to them, don’t we?

#7 TurnerNation on 04.10.21 at 9:55 am

‘#131 espressobob on 04.09.21 at 7:50 pm
I waited in a lineup yesterday by the old skydome building ‘

Things are as scary as you want to make them. Or ask the 14.9 million healthy people in this province what’s up. The business of Sports: Skydome eh? As noted last year:

#142 TurnerNation on 08.05.20 at 11:52 pm
Save this post. I will. Toronto’s sports stadiums will remain closed until 2021. Hey they’ve banished the Blue Jays team from the country even. In 2021 they will re-open as Mass needle centers

To recap: Jays, Leafs are banned from the country; CFL is cancelled. We are told the Canucks are all sick. Fine they’re better now, so game on yes? Not so fast. This is cancel culture. Want to bet they move to USA or are canned?

———-
Dunno man I’m keeping these Doctors on bookmark

DrJ @DrJ56013122 Proud father, husband, surgeon, endurance athlete
Looks like my patients’ surgeries are being cancelled last minute yet again. After almost a year’s wait. We have enough hospital capacity and these are procedures with almost zero chance of ever needing a critical care bed

** This chart from the Doctor says it all
https://twitter.com/jeanmarcbenoit/status/1380675367690776581 Jean Marc Benoit MD

Wave 3. ICU capacity overwhelmed thus entire province locked down, surgeries cancelled. Of 30 regions w ICU, 5 are above 85% ICU occupancy: Hastings, Peel, Hamilton, Toronto, Sudbury.
Notable among cities is Middlesex-London, with 66% ICU occupancy, 7% of which is covid.
https://twitter.com/jeanmarcbenoit/status/1380675367690776581

—–

Shower thought. If Plexiglass does something and is not simply theatre, why aren’t the half azzed plexiglass walls found between hospital beds? Only between booths in the restaurants . We are in a theatre – of War at this time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-hygiene-cleaning-surfaces.html
This week, the C.D.C. acknowledged what scientists have been saying for months: The risk of catching the coronavirus from surfaces is low.
There’s really no evidence that anyone has ever gotten Covid-19 by touching a contaminated surface,” one researcher noted.

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 10:15 am

Sorry, can’t resist:
Lots of loonies in the steerage section.

#9 Stone on 04.10.21 at 10:23 am

Ryan, completely onside with the belief that you have chiseled abs. We all know your basement reno was so that you could install your PX90 setup. Also, doing handstand pushups are overkill. You’re making the rest of us look bad.

On a side note, I’m curious. Did Garth contract out his services to the Toronto Star and Heather Mallick? Reading the below article, all I could think was, this so reeks of Garth.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2021/04/09/want-to-make-your-life-miserable-buy-a-house-in-toronto.html

And if not, should you be issuing them a cease and desist since they’re clearly infringing on your turf?

Strange how the MSM are changing their narrative on real estate. I’m noticing it all over the place. Even BNN.

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 10:24 am

We’re always keeping green backs for our vacations.
But not to the States.
There are lots of countries where the US dollar is at a premium.

#11 It's ... on 04.10.21 at 10:43 am

British Pounds I would like to spend next year … but thanx for the info.

#12 kim on 04.10.21 at 10:58 am

hmmm… do you think the Feds don’t care if the housing market swells, because it seems if your house is valued at 1M your paying more taxes.

#13 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 11:02 am

Speaking of the $$$ and its relationship to oil, some interesting excerpts from an article in today’s National Post:

The new chief executive of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has no plans to institute a blanket divestment of oil and gas assets during his tenure, in part because he believes science will find solutions to many of the issues that have made environmentalists and some investors question such holdings.

Invoking science to support energy investments may not be a popular position in some quarters these days, but the 49-year-old, who was abruptly named to the top post at the $475 billion fund in February, has the credentials to back it up.

“Simple divestment is essentially a short on human ingenuity,” John Graham told the Financial Post in a recent interview, adding that there are “incredibly bright, talented” scientists and engineers in the oil and gas industry.

“We will continue to invest across the entire energy ecosystem including active investments we have in Alberta,” Graham said in the interview, which took place shortly before the announcement.

Among those investments is Calgary’s Wolf Midstream, which he pointed to as an example of what he sees as the path forward.
The firm, which CPPIB first invested in six years ago, is involved in the conventional oil and gas sector. But Wolf also built and is part owner of the 240-kilometre Alberta Carbon Trunk Line, which captures emissions from fertilizer facilities and refineries and delivers the carbon dioxide to use in enhanced oil recovery at mature oil and gas reservoirs and for permanent storage.

“It is one (investment) we’re quite proud of — a great example of some of the forward-looking thinking around carbon capture,” Graham said.
“I’ve met lots of people through my career, scientists and engineers, who work in the oil and gas sector, and they’re incredibly bright, talented people who will undoubtedly play a role in the energy transition.”

Amen, Mr. Graham.

#14 Commodities??? on 04.10.21 at 11:19 am

Current oil and commodity prices are laughable Ryan. Criminal manipulation. Sorry what are they based on exactly? Demand? The world’s economies have cratered with thousands of airplanes grounded for 14 months and billions working from home with closed businesses everywhere.

Good ol’ J Powell and his cronies.

#15 Drill Baby Drill on 04.10.21 at 11:25 am

“chiseled abs”? How do you chisel jello ?

#16 Robert Ash on 04.10.21 at 11:29 am

I sure hope the Canadian currency keeps within Ryan’s range. Thanks for the Analysis.

#17 Faron on 04.10.21 at 11:46 am

#152 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:13 pm

Garth/Ryan: Respectfully, why is this nutbar running rampant here? And can you hint if he’s a regular commenter using an alias?

#18 Concerned Citizen on 04.10.21 at 11:48 am

Last time I looked, the loonie was at 85 cents USD on a purchasing power parity (PPP). I tend to use PPP as a rough guide on when to exchange currency, so if we reach 85 cents I’ll probably look to move some CAD into USD. Even though what the Fed is doing is terrifying.

#19 Pete on 04.10.21 at 11:49 am

Most economists are staying away from predictions due to uncharted waters, but the attached article is interesting to read. No predictions, but lots of information related to fiat, investment, and post covid expectations.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4418358-the-global-debt-problem

#20 Faron on 04.10.21 at 11:56 am

#13 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 11:02 am

I fully agree that scientific and nuanced aporiaches to carbon mitigation are needed. This may be a good one. However, pension fund managers aren’t gods. The CPP was a big holder of GSX, a known fraud that tanked when Archegos died costing Canadians a Bil+. Alberta’s pension manager’s lost a ton selling volatility prior to the COVID crash. So maybe public pension managers aren’t always the sharpest tools in the shed? Or, are at least as prone to chasing bright and shinies as the rest of us with similar results.

#21 Loonie Doctor on 04.10.21 at 11:58 am

Great post. Guess I am peaking.
-LD

#22 Faron on 04.10.21 at 11:59 am

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 10:15 am

Sorry, can’t resist:
Lots of loonies in the steerage section.

As long as they are range bound, can’t do too much harm.

#23 Faron on 04.10.21 at 12:03 pm

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.21 at 9:29 am

Interesting synopsis Ryan.
I’ll leave your six pack alone.

Do you think another year of Liberal billion dollar bonfires adding to the national debt pre election might affect the Canuck dollar?

Not that simple. There are similar bonfires in all major economies. Currency is relative. You can have static USDCAD while also seeing 3% inflation. At issue today is the relative strength of the Loonie.

#24 Upenuff on 04.10.21 at 12:06 pm

Thanks Ryan!
Yet another reason to read this blog on weekends.

Upenuff

#25 mike from mtl on 04.10.21 at 12:10 pm

Dunno, USDCAD years of hovering lower range of 1.25-ish ignoring of course the knee-jerk of 2020, my bias is to not trust CA$.

FDI is running out the door, our supposed key export that nobody wants to pay for and a sitting government actively is trying to close. We manufacture very little, innovate nothing as a branch office, protect local oligopolies, but sell houses to each other.

#26 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 12:20 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz “Interesting synopsis Ryan. I’ll leave your six pack alone.

Do you think another year of Liberal billion dollar bonfires adding to the national debt pre election might affect the Canuck dollar?”

Not really. Almost all major countries have huge deficits right now so it’s a bit of a wash. The CAD is more impacted by those macro factors (oil and interest rates) rather than deficit and debt levels. Some are bearish on the CAD dollar given our large deficits and debt but I think they miss that the whole world is in debt. – Ryan L

#27 Bridle Path on 04.10.21 at 12:20 pm

The liberal government wants QE in the housing market, leading our loonie down to a possible 50 cent crash.

#28 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 12:21 pm

Drill Baby Drill “chiseled abs”? How do you chisel jello?”

That hurts! But I’ll forgive you. – Ryan L

#29 DON on 04.10.21 at 12:28 pm

#127 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 7:31 pm
99 Don

No one is talking about commercial customers. You missed my original comment where I said homeowners. I’m talking about all the Stamped concrete, pool, interlock, grass etc etc.

As far as cash goes… 50k cash is not a big deal.

Now let’s talk about how developers get a few million tax free every few years.

I’m building 250 houses… construction costs are 100 million… I sign contracts with all my trades… my kid or cousin or whoever buys an estate property. I get all my trades to build the home and bill everything to the individual numbered company that I set up for the specific project of the 250 houses. My wife friend cousin etc lives there for a year or two and sells it.

**********

my comment was directed to what Sail away was believing. I agree with your assessment of larger dollar amounts and witnessed what you are saying at a major housing development…in the central isla nd area.

This island is notorios for cash jobs unless you are dealing with gov contracts…but then again those contracts are goldmines for other reasons.

#30 Flop... on 04.10.21 at 12:40 pm

Rhino, can’t stir you today, on probation after calling Trudeau a Sock Sucker yesterday.

Don’t trying saying that at your next family gathering with any food in your mouth…

M46BC

#31 Bartman on 04.10.21 at 1:04 pm

Where will the price of bitcoin be compared to the dollar?

#32 spoon_man on 04.10.21 at 1:10 pm

Hey Ryan,
If those are the most common FAQs here is a data-drive strategy (yes free for you given all you and the team give us back in terms of knowledge):
Hire me as your fin adv so I will worry about 1, 2 and 4 while taking care of your portfolio so that you only have to worry about what really matters to you, i.e., 3 and hopefully … how to better use the time you have left ;-)
You’re welcome.

#33 Oh Oh!? on 04.10.21 at 1:26 pm

Any guesses as to what this is about?

CALGARY, AB, April 9, 2021 /CNW/ – The Governments of Canada and Calgary will be making a major announcement related to housing.

GoC EN (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)
GoC EN (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)
Media are invited to join the Honourable Ahmed Hussen, Minister of Families, Children and Social Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), along with Naheed Nenshi, Mayor of Calgary, for the announcement.

Date: April 12th, 2021

Time: 9:00 a.m. MT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/media-advisory-government-canada-major-180000699.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb&tsrc=fb

#34 Rasta on 04.10.21 at 1:28 pm

Canada real estate market gone cray that Landlords are trying to use Toronto Police to evict tenants. Good cop for telling the lying Landlord not to use police for landlord disputes:
https://www.blogto.com/city/2021/04/toronto-cop-screams-landlord-who-lied-about-black-family-having-gun/

#35 IHCTD9 on 04.10.21 at 1:31 pm

#14 Commodities??? on 04.10.21 at 11:19 am
Current oil and commodity prices are laughable Ryan. Criminal manipulation. Sorry what are they based on exactly? Demand? The world’s economies have cratered with thousands of airplanes grounded for 14 months and billions working from home with closed businesses everywhere.
——

I imagine the supply end in the oil biz is fairly hobbled for the same reasons.

There is no unusual spike in demand for YAMAHA Grizzly 700’s right now, but on Kijiji you will find three year old used examples for sale at about the same price as a brand new with warranty and financing 2021 model from the dealer. The reason is you can’t put your fingers on a 2021 unit right now – unless you want to wait it out. The demand for used machines is because supply of new ones is severely hobbled.

#36 R on 04.10.21 at 1:50 pm

Solar Energy + Batteries will be/ is already the most cost effective source of energy . It already is cheaper than Natural Gas for Peaker Plant applications. It is a waste of investment to further develop Oil & Gas potential,for it will just increase the stranded liabilities. If the Loonie is tied to the price of Oil & Gas, I would rethink any investment equities in my portfolio being in Canada.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds

#37 Jibber Jabber on 04.10.21 at 2:08 pm

3) how do you maintain your boyish good looks and chiseled abs when you’re so busy looking after clients?

______________________________________________

That’s an easy one! We put our clients’ money in ETFs, then sett’em and forget’em for years at a time, if not decades. Of course you could do that yourself with minimal effort, but you need someone in a suit to hold your hand, blame if things go sideways or south, and console you in troubled times.

That being said, we’ve got tons of time on our hands to hit the gym, the “greens” and practically anything else we so desire.

#38 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 2:08 pm

greaterfool “ does a higher CAD to USD help keep the inflation low? why Canada CB would concern a higher CAD? we buy more from U.S. then sell to them, don’t we?”

Yes a stronger CAD helps to keep inflation lower. A lower dollar is generally inflationary. Canada is an exporting nation so we generally want a lower dollar since that helps our exports (because countries can buy more our goods with their stronger currencies). This is why the BoC likes our dollar in the 70s. – Ryan L

#39 Northshore guy on 04.10.21 at 2:30 pm

Ryan,

Our Canadian mortgage rates are influenced by US bond market or Canadian bond market?

#40 DON on 04.10.21 at 2:54 pm

Interesting analysis.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-could-go-wrong-5-ideas

“There’s a “roaring 20s” analogy making the rounds which posits that the 2020s will resemble the post-WW I 1920s, but that’s a fundamental misreading of history. Wartime, for all its horrors, is typically a period of full employment. The 2020 pandemic era was certainly not that. Further, in the 1920s the US repaid several large war bond offerings which spurred both consumer spending and stock market speculation. While that may sound familiar, there was virtually no consumer debt at the start of the roaring 1920s, unlike today.”

#41 Penny Henny on 04.10.21 at 3:05 pm

#9 Stone on 04.10.21 at 10:23 am
On a side note, I’m curious. Did Garth contract out his services to the Toronto Star and Heather Mallick? Reading the below article, all I could think was, this so reeks of Garth.

//////////////////

Heather Mallick is a nutjob. Just like you.

#42 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.10.21 at 3:11 pm

Oh yes, today both Ryan and Turner Nation equate correlation to causation .
The only difference is in what we call the next step:
Ryan : Forecasting =》Informative
TN : 3rd “C” Conspiracy =》Entertaining or Informative comes to personal choice.

Either way , I enjoy both of their posts, keep it up.

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm

A little off topic.
RIP Prince Phillip!
My favorite Royal.
Quite the character.
Probably scolding God right:
Why could you not wait 3 more month?
Again proves the old adage:
Behind every successful woman stands a loyal man.
And of course, the opposite is also true.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:18 pm

#22 Faron on 04.10.21 at 11:59 am
#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 10:15 am

Sorry, can’t resist:
Lots of loonies in the steerage section.

As long as they are range bound, can’t do too much harm.
————
Like in “home at the range”
Also, Mud Bound” is a great movie.
Very topical right now.

#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm

#17 Faron

—————-

Nutbar?

This trial is the most exciting thing on TV! More than any pro sports competition. And likely billions are at stake economically as America will burn with an innocent verdict that is surely coming.

The more I learn about this case, the more it confirms my suspicions about media spin in this story. This is a trial based on outrage created by social media viewers being fooled, lacking facts and digging their heels in behind a convicted violent criminal who made every possible choice to escalate this situation and resist. 3 cops couldn’t handle him in an enclosed environment of rear of a cruiser. Probably resisting with ever ounce of his being because as a repeat offender messing with counterfeiting, he knew it was a federal crime and what was waiting for him.

It was quite something to see the paper pushing chief of police turn his back on his own troops. I can’t see how he retains the trust of his troops, but that’s another story.

The whole trial is eye opening. Everyone is on their own. They will spare no tears in hanging you when you do your job and some violently resisting drug addict with enlarged heart and 90% blocked artery and filled with drugs croaks. Now put on the uniform and go out there and protect us!

#46 Ab Greaterfool Championship on 04.10.21 at 3:35 pm

I say we settle this once and for all.

Update comments to allow us to include photos and we post photos of our abs – submissions must include face, ID, date stamp.

The we take it to a poll. We’ll see how many of those LBCO 8-pack boxes, 6-packs, 4-packs and kegs we have on here. 24 hr notice in case anyone wants to drop water weight for toning.

Oh, special note to the hairy stomach guy I saw at the Grand Prix in Montreal when F1 cars weren’t these hybrid junkers and sounded right – shaving a 6-pack lines out on your hairy stomach while classy and babe magnet doesn’t count! Nice illusion though.

#47 Two-thirds on 04.10.21 at 3:49 pm

Ryan,

Do you see a justification for eventually incorporating natural gas, uranium and lithium into your model?

As the legacy, petroleum-fueled global economy sunsets, and a low-carbon one emerges, will the loonie be correlated better with the aforementioned commodities instead of oil?

Other than RE and commodities, what else can the value of our currency be based on? Weed? Wokeness?

#48 will on 04.10.21 at 3:51 pm

I only have one ab.

#49 Linda on 04.10.21 at 3:57 pm

Excellent analysis Ryan. Question: Canada has recently posted some monthly trade surplus figures. Would the current support of the Canadian dollar plus supply chain issues be driving that surplus? Are there any expectations that as the economy reopens that trade surpluses will continue to be a thing?

#50 Still Employed in AB on 04.10.21 at 4:18 pm

I wonder how many first time buyers have been burnt in this pandemic bubble.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstateCanada/comments/mo8lim/home_inspector_missed_critical_issues_wondering/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

#51 I knew Ab ... on 04.10.21 at 4:30 pm

#48 will on 04.10.21 at 3:51 pm

I only have one ab.
————————————————-
he had a brother named Sub. They were the Normal twins.

#52 Ab Greaterfool Championship on 04.10.21 at 4:43 pm

#48 will

I only have one ab

——————-

Turns out all of Canada also only has one AB.

#53 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 5:08 pm

@#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm

You might find this an interesting read. A thoughtful piece by Richard Epstein who is a law professor and
American legal scholar known for his writings on subjects such as torts, contracts, property rights, law and economics, classical liberalism, and libertarianism.
He shares some interesting insights on the case.

https://www.hoover.org/research/american-meltdown

#54 SoggyShorts on 04.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm
A little off topic.
RIP Prince Phillip!
My favorite Royal.

**********************
He certainly had a way with words…

“If you stay here much longer, you will go home with slitty eyes.” Said to a British student in China in 1986.

“You managed not to get eaten then?” Said to someone who had just hiked across Papua New Guinea.

“How do you keep the natives off the booze long enough to pass the test?” Said to a Scottish driving instructor in 1995.

And more gems here https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2017/05/05/all-things-he-said-legacy-prince-philip-and-his-all-too-often-racist-comments

#55 Hilroy on 04.10.21 at 5:46 pm

Under USMCA 45% of Mexican Auto workers have to make at least US $16/hour .
The average wage of an auto worker in Canada is US $16.86 (CAD $ 21.27) / hour.

A home in Mexico averages CAD $70 000
A home in Canada averages CAD $ 650 000

A dollar any lower and were making less than Mexican workers with a home cost for us 10x higher.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=Mexico&country2=Canada

https://www.payscale.com/research/CA/Job=Assembly_Line_Worker%2C_Automotive/Hourly_Rate

#56 westcdn on 04.10.21 at 5:52 pm

I don’t know but I can guess. There is noise about rising rates and inflation. Maybe I can renew my mortgage near current rates. It would make me happy.

I looked at my portfolio – about 15% Reits, 25% preferred and the rest in Canadian commons with a few Americans. I am a bit of gambler and a home time guy – ask my daughters and former wife.

It delivers about about 5% dividends and variable capital gains. I have losers waiting. Sometimes they revise. Bring it on Ms Freeland – I am patient.

#57 Stone on 04.10.21 at 6:00 pm

#41 Penny Henny on 04.10.21 at 3:05 pm
#9 Stone on 04.10.21 at 10:23 am
On a side note, I’m curious. Did Garth contract out his services to the Toronto Star and Heather Mallick? Reading the below article, all I could think was, this so reeks of Garth.

//////////////////

Heather Mallick is a nutjob. Just like you.

———

Really? I thought it was really well written. It’s the reason I thought of Garth when I read it. Do you think Garth is a nutjob too? You already indicated he doesn’t deserve to get a % based fee for managing his clients investments. Are you spitting in his eye a second time?

You seem to be a pretty angry turd. Today’s a really nice day outside. Didn’t you go outside to get some vitamin D and lift your spirits? I did. Bikini babes everywhere. A bit pasty white but hey, bikinis! Turn that frown upside down.

#58 Axehead on 04.10.21 at 6:08 pm

Ryan, you are probably accurate. But if I were to bet an error margin, I would say that politics matters, and if the liberals or NDP or any combination of both form the next government the the long term prospect is low CAD, based on debt, spending, social programs, and little regard for private industry – the lifeblood of wealth.

#59 Vacation Plans on 04.10.21 at 6:10 pm

you may want to consider buying some US dollars for that vacation that you’re likely to go on next year as Covid begins to retreat.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Replace US dollars with Bitcoin and take the best vacation you could ever imagine in your new 911 GT 2 RS

#60 Steven Rowlandson on 04.10.21 at 6:39 pm

“Welcome to communism – that’s exactly how they operate – dangle it in your face out of reach
so you are reminded who holds the power”

The genocidal real estate market described perfectly.
Survival of the richest and best connected.

#61 Don Guillermo on 04.10.21 at 6:47 pm

Speaking of the Loonie, CBC is bullish.

https://youtu.be/3YqOz1Y61rk

#62 Wile E. Coyote on 04.10.21 at 6:50 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm
A little off topic.
RIP Prince Phillip!
My favorite Royal.
Quite the character.
Probably scolding God right:
Why could you not wait 3 more month?
Again proves the old adage:
Behind every successful woman stands a loyal man.
And of course, the opposite is also true.

_______________________________________

Based on your comments on this blog, and especially this one … you are obviously one of those dawdling, blue-winged idiots. “Favorite royal” … come on. While we’re at it .. who’s your favorite Hollywood actor? DeNiro or Streep? Wait … I don’t care. Stop filling this blog with your nonsense… and take TurnerNation with you.

#63 Nonplused on 04.10.21 at 6:56 pm

$0.80 has been a good forecast for the Canadian dollar going back a long way. Even an old Canadian silver dollar only has 8/10 of an ounce compared to the American silver dollars which are a full ounce. Seems like it is long standing policy which predates the widespread use of paper money.

I think it is not so hard of a trick for the Bank of Canada to target the exchange rate when we aren’t having an oil boom. The job of the US Federal Reserve targeting inflation is probably much harder but to a certain extent what they do down there for inflation pretty much sets the Canadian inflation rate too, outside of changes in the exchange rate.

So the long and short of it is that I am not too concerned about the exchange rate. I’m much more concerned what all this stimulus borrowing and spending is going to do to the inflation rate in both countries. I have a hard time believing they can just keep borrowing and spending trillions of dollars a year without that showing up as inflation. Otherwise why not just borrow and spend even more? If 4 trillion a year is good, why wouldn’t 8 trillion be even better? MMT all the way, baby!

So I would say not to worry about the exchange rate too much but instead look for inflation proof investments whether they be US or Canadian (or international). Cash is trash no matter whose cash it is. The stated goal is 2% inflation per year so you can consider that a guaranteed annual loss of purchasing power. If you have cash, buy all the things. They won’t be cheaper tomorrow.

#64 Faron on 04.10.21 at 7:02 pm

#54 SoggyShorts on 04.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Good quotes sogs. Sounds like the father of MAGA. Times were better when you could just say crap like that. Amirite?

#65 Faron on 04.10.21 at 7:08 pm

#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm

#17 Faron

it confirms my suspicions

You admit you have your own bias. Got it.

And police does not equate and should not be equated with troops. Therein lies one of many problems here.

#66 Guelph Guru on 04.10.21 at 7:18 pm

As always, nice to see informative charts. Nice to see someone having the guts to put out a definitive number (81) rather than dilly dallying all over the place.
Agree with mostly everything except oil price. Me thinks with US becoming a net importer from exporter and the weak USD, hopefully we will see $100+ in 2022 when the roaring twenties kick in.

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 7:20 pm

#53 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 5:08 pm
@#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm

You might find this an interesting read. A thoughtful piece by Richard Epstein who is a law professor and
American legal scholar known for his writings on subjects such as torts, contracts, property rights, law and economics, classical liberalism, and libertarianism.
He shares some interesting insights on the case.

https://www.hoover.org/research/american-meltdown
—————-
Hoover Institution.
I bought a vacuum from them once.
I returned it because it was pulling too far to the right.
But they were the official vacuum of the Trump White House.

#68 Don Guillermo on 04.10.21 at 7:24 pm

#59 Vacation Plans on 04.10.21 at 6:10 pm
you may want to consider buying some US dollars for that vacation that you’re likely to go on next year as Covid begins to retreat.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Replace US dollars with Bitcoin and take the best vacation you could ever imagine in your new 911 GT 2 RS
**********************************
GT2 RS – That could be a super fast vaca

#69 Nonplused on 04.10.21 at 7:29 pm

#12 kim on 04.10.21 at 10:58 am
hmmm… do you think the Feds don’t care if the housing market swells, because it seems if your house is valued at 1M your paying more taxes.

—————————————

In most jurisdictions in Canada, that is not really how it works. The appraisals are “relative”, so if everyone’s house goes up the same percent, the taxes don’t change. Except of course that the city reliably increases the tax rate 2% every year. They would do that even if prices fell.

The purpose of the appraisals is to calculate how much a person with a $1,000,000 should pay compared to a $500,000 house. If both houses go up 100% to $2,000,000 and $1,000,000 respectively, the taxes don’t change except for the annual tax increase that both owners have to pay.

Where you get stuck with large increases is if you have a house in an area that has appreciated considerably compared to the ‘burbs. If your house went from $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 while everyone else’s house stayed at $500,000 then yes your taxes double.

This is not true in all jurisdictions, especially in the US.

#70 KaleyCat on 04.10.21 at 7:38 pm

Ryan, would your comparison of the Can$ to the US$ also hold true when compared to the Euro?

#71 Paulo on 04.10.21 at 7:39 pm

Ryan:

Do you think that a possibility of Iran And The USA settling/re starting there Nuclear anti proliferation treaty, hence Opening Iran’s Significant oil exporting ability may create a world awash in oil situation, thus under cutting the value of Canadian Select, and pulling part of the support out from under the CAD ? . I think there is at least a possibility this could come to pass fairly soon

#72 Nonplused on 04.10.21 at 8:01 pm

#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm
#17 Faron

—————-

Nutbar?

This trial is the most exciting thing on TV! More than any pro sports competition. And likely billions are at stake economically as America will burn with an innocent verdict that is surely coming.
…….

Now put on the uniform and go out there and protect us!

—————————————

I am not so sure how the jury will decide in this case, but the “court of popular opinion” has already decided.

Whatever happens, I can make one prediction: They will not need to “defund the police” as they will not be able to hire many new recruits and many current officers will quit. Security will become a private affair, only available if you can pay for it. Poor communities will become no-go zones run by thugs. Nobody is more interested in a “guilty” verdict than the drug cartels.

When you start putting people in jail for doing their job, even if they screwed up royally, people find other avenues of employment. Deep in the back of our minds we are all aware that we have the potential to screw up royally if the situation overwhelms us. But who wants to face life in prison for $60,000 a year?

The fact of the matter is that if you resist arrest, you can end up dead. Mistakes will be made.

Chauvin is screwed either way. If he is found guilty he will be dead within a week of entering the general prison population. If he is found innocent he will have to move to Alaska and he still won’t be safe.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.21 at 8:07 pm

@#65 Faronista
“Therein lies one of many problems here”

++++

Well you could always leave “here”.
And solve all our problems…..

#74 Nonplused on 04.10.21 at 8:08 pm

#46 Ab Greaterfool Championship on 04.10.21 at 3:35 pm
I say we settle this once and for all.

Update comments to allow us to include photos and we post photos of our abs – submissions must include face, ID, date stamp.

The we take it to a poll. We’ll see how many of those LBCO 8-pack boxes, 6-packs, 4-packs and kegs we have on here. 24 hr notice in case anyone wants to drop water weight for toning.

Oh, special note to the hairy stomach guy I saw at the Grand Prix in Montreal when F1 cars weren’t these hybrid junkers and sounded right – shaving a 6-pack lines out on your hairy stomach while classy and babe magnet doesn’t count! Nice illusion though.

——————————————

Maybe you should move over to Tinder?

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.21 at 8:11 pm

@#71 Paulo
“Iran’s Significant oil exporting ability may create a world awash in oil situation, thus under cutting the value of Canadian Select, and pulling part of the support out from under the CAD ? . I think there is at least a possibility this could come to pass fairly soon.”

++++

China just signed a multi year $450 billion dollar infrastructure upgrade agreement with Iran.

Iranian Oil for new Chinese funded roads, bridges, missiles, tanks, etc.

Iran wont be signing anything with the US until Iranians tire of the Mullahs…..

#76 Nonplused on 04.10.21 at 8:24 pm

#53 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 5:08 pm
@#45 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 3:25 pm

You might find this an interesting read. A thoughtful piece by Richard Epstein who is a law professor and
American legal scholar known for his writings on subjects such as torts, contracts, property rights, law and economics, classical liberalism, and libertarianism.
He shares some interesting insights on the case.

https://www.hoover.org/research/american-meltdown

——————————————–

There is also institutional racism against white males. Most of the white males I worked with in the oil patch have been laid off, but only a few females and not many non-whites. My wife’s team at work is all female of various shades and one black male. No white males. It pays $70,000 a year, so I don’t think the white males are not applying. This whole downturn has been a boon to large corporations trying to achieve their “diversity targets”. Just fire all the white men. Except the c-suite of course. The boss is still a white man.

I’m strangely ok with it. In the past it was women who would “marry up”. Now I don’t have to work just manage my investments. I have a lot of time to “keep my mind on my money and my money on my mind”.

When we talk about the Chauvin case, and no, I don’t know whether Chauvin murdered Floyd intentionally or by accident, I can’t form an opinion because of lack of facts, but if the arresting officers had all been black would it have made national news? I think not.

#77 Grunt on 04.10.21 at 8:25 pm

You TI folks have been spot-on forecasting the markets. I recall the handsome.bearded-one predicting a melt higher for 2021. Last year during the most gloomy moments.

Note: Useful comments like handsome bearded-one are extremely handy for keeping you alive on this blog.

#78 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 8:28 pm

Paulo “Do you think that a possibility of Iran And The USA settling/re starting there Nuclear anti proliferation treaty, hence Opening Iran’s Significant oil exporting ability may create a world awash in oil situation, thus under cutting the value of Canadian Select, and pulling part of the support out from under the CAD ? . I think there is at least a possibility this could come to pass fairly soon”

No. This would also crush the US energy sector and their 12 mln barrels of production per day. If they re-sign they will allow Iran to sell some additional barrels of oil but they will not be allowed to flood the market. – Ryan L

#79 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 8:31 pm

KaleyCat “Ryan, would your comparison of the Can$ to the US$ also hold true when compared to the Euro?”

The correlation is not nearly as strong. Europe is an importer of oil so higher oil prices would hurt them versus Canada, which would benefit. – Ryan L

#80 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 8:36 pm

Two Thirds “Do you see a justification for eventually incorporating natural gas, uranium and lithium into your model?

As the legacy, petroleum-fueled global economy sunsets, and a low-carbon one emerges, will the loonie be correlated better with the aforementioned commodities instead of oil?”

I’ve also built one with a broad commodity index versus oil but the model had a higher r2 using oil. I get your point but for now we’re still an oil/resource country. – Ryan L

#81 Drinking on 04.10.21 at 8:43 pm

I heard from a friend of a friend and possibly another that mentioned Doug is possibly sending rumors out there that your boyish looks could possibly be related to botox, hey, no proof, just innuendo, but I would have a chat with your Porcha driving bud! :) Chiseled abs, Garth owns that one…

Those that keep under estimating oil and gas are not realistic, it will take a number of years for humanity to wean itself off of the product if ever!

#82 espressobob on 04.10.21 at 8:44 pm

#7 TurnerNation

Your points are taken. There is considerable drama concerning covid along with a sea of confusion and controversy when it comes to the authorities so it seems.

If 3 mil are vaxed and the population of Ontario is around 15 mil then according to medical experts 60 to 80% of the pop needs to be jabbed to reach herd immunity. Let’s say for the sake of discussion that number to be roughly 10 mil and 100k are pfizered or zenaced each day then how long before we get our lives back?

Sorry, but I’m burboned tonight so you’ll have to the math. Cheers.

#83 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 8:56 pm

#65 Faron

Biased? I’ve waited to hear the prosecution present their case and to hear facts and see evidence.

Chauvin looks to be well within margins of the rule book and within Graham vs. Connor. He should have taken out a weapon and tazed Floyd and been done with it like the Use of Force Expert prosecution put on the stand noted he was well within rules to do. But he tried to give this guy a chance to stop resisting, the time and space, which Floyd clearly does not choose to do. He resists until his heart says: “No more resistance George. And George, why didn’t you pump me full of drugs?”

What facts are you looking at in this case? Snowflake offended cancel culture ones?

#84 The Woosh on 04.10.21 at 8:58 pm

#48 will on 04.10.21 at 3:51 pm
I only have one ab.

——————————————

They normally call that a “keg”. With the nice weather today, saw a bunch of the neighbours showing off their “kegs”.

#85 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.10.21 at 9:16 pm

#53 the Jaguar

————-

Balanced, but still speculative and written way back. So much has changed since, including those additional cruiser search that found 2 pills, judgements even George’s buddy and passenger in the car Morrise Hall who looks to be on the hook for Murder 3 for supplying Floyd the drugs that look to have killed him. I’m now going by facts presented in court only.

But the article is certainly right about the right of these 4 cops being trampled, including by the chief of police who has fired them and declared them guilty publicly – when presumption of innocence is a key principle he should uphold for all. Interesting little detail that hasn’t been picked up is that the Chief reviewed the Millestone footage of the arrests and declared that nothing untoward stood out to him. Once Chauvin is found innocent, Nelson will hand the city of MN their butts for all these wrongs Chief has managed to stumble into. It isn’t out of place for Chauvin to demand 27m himself!

Back to Faron – ever hear a group of people referred to as troops? A group of employees one manages being called “troops”? Oh you have? So it’s not just a military word, it’s a group of people one leads, which a Chief is Police certainly does. And he certainly has their lives as a responsibility of his job as much as the citizens they are tasked with protecting.

#86 Sara on 04.10.21 at 9:17 pm

MN vs. Chauvin

You’ve posted several comments today, almost like you are a regular blog dog. Why not let the rest of us know the name you normally post under?

#87 CJohnC on 04.10.21 at 9:39 pm

Interesting house price video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iH6WldfzsZY

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 9:56 pm

#64 Faron on 04.10.21 at 7:02 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Good quotes sogs. Sounds like the father of MAGA. Times were better when you could just say crap like that. Amirite?
—————–
Well, I think Philip was ahead of his time.
From my personal experience, that “crap” is becomming hip again.
Hate against Asians is going up exponentially.

#89 the Jaguar on 04.10.21 at 11:39 pm

Goodness. Just climbed back up into daylight after a long day recording personal observations of life on planet earth only to find my earlier post, offering a legal scholars opinion on that newsworthy case south of the border ruffled a few feathers, notably MN versus FA with more than casual interest from one other, seemingly convinced MN posts on the blog under another alias. So very mysterious.

It’s like a night at Rick’s ‘Cafe American’ in Casablanca. Everyone is welcome at Rick’s provided they all share the same opinion. Classic Marxist, Antifa thinking, with a bit of Major Heinrich Von Strasser thrown in for good measure. ‘Round up the usual suspects’ never rang so true.

I’m always interested in other peoples opinions and views on life. At the end of the day one can only hope to respectfully agree to disagree. Where the police and law enforcement are concerned my feelings are transparent. I am in their corner. First, last, and always, provided the rules are being followed.
Everyone is free to climb back into their Toyota Tacoma, pull on their hipster wool hat in the heat of summer and buzz off down the highway if they disagree. Got it, Dudes?

++”I’m not for taking money for the police department,” Tyler Perry ( popular film producer, director, and actor) said.
“I think we need more police. My studio is in a neighborhood where I think we need police…. I have really close friends who are police officers that I love dearly who are really good people, who have been very, very hurt by this as well.” +++

(Perry is the great-great grandson of a slave, and his current movie studio is located on a former confederate army based in Atlanta.)++

#90 Jon B on 04.11.21 at 12:38 am

Why does everyone at Turner Investments have chiselled abs?

#91 Frank Stalle on 04.11.21 at 12:44 am

#80 Ryan, right, the far left idea that we’re “ phasing out” the oil economy any time soon is propaganda paid for by the same guys who got rich on oil in the first place. The old ‘ Oil Barons’ ( Rockefeller’s etc) have squeezed that lemon for all the easy profits that industry can produce. The Old Oil Barons are now the New Green Carpet Baggers making fresh new billions from so far mostly government subsidies for windmill turbines and the flaky green giveaways.

Until a battery has the same explosive energy output as a can of kerosene we’ll be powering factories on Clean Energy, aka, petroleum products. Before anyone has a tizzy, first get off your petroleum product addiction to plastics etc that run everything ( even the clothes on your back).

So, while the kiddies run wild in the streets we continue to invest and profit wisely, in oil.

Jamie Dimon has a forecast…BOOM. I have 30% in energy related issues. Oil, Natural gas, Wind farms, across the board, best of breed, dividend players, no juniors or anything on the margin. This group has done very well yet and I think the recovery boom will far exceed the efforts of a Trudeau or Butts to tear it down.

Ergo, real explosive energy, US or Interlisted is a big part of any strategy going forward. Many of these have already doubled during the recovery phase but are beginning to spit out free cash flow towards continued appreciation.

When I want investment advice I look to the balance sheet not some aged out lothario who subsidizes oil rigs in Senegal but won’t lift a finger for Canadians. Green energy sure, great politics for a Woke Demographic, but to produce those chemicals that make the ink to print the protest banners, go with Dimon, not Trudeau. One has a track record of making money the other no track record at all. Boom, make it happen for yourself by looking at the reality of investing and not the nonsense coming from a basket of yapping puppies.

#92 SoggyShorts on 04.11.21 at 1:53 am

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 9:56 pm
#64 Faron on 04.10.21 at 7:02 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Good quotes sogs. Sounds like the father of MAGA. Times were better when you could just say crap like that. Amirite?

**************************
At first read I thought “Yikes, but oh well, he was like 1,000 years old so…”
but then, I actually noticed the dates on those quotes, and I’m not sure about everyone else, but that sort of thing wasn’t OK during my upbringing.
It certainly tilts things towards Meghan’s side of the story (not that there was really any doubt)

IMO for famous people who died yesterday, it’s too bad Phil eclipsed DMX. I like his quotes better, and I think Garth would agree:

“I don’t like anything about Drake.”
— DMX

#93 Nonplused on 04.11.21 at 3:01 am

#151 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:05 pm

Indeed, the media is still spinning it toward outrage when the NOT GUILTY comes down, which it will. There is no way anything else comes down after Dr. Baker today.

————————————-

Don’t count on that. The verdict has already been decided.

#94 Faron on 04.11.21 at 4:06 am

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.21 at 8:07 pm

@#65 Faronista
“Therein lies one of many problems here”

++++

Well you could always leave “here”.
And solve all our problems…..

But then I would never become a bitter old man like you and countless others here.

#95 BillyBob on 04.11.21 at 4:48 am

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 9:56 pm
#64 Faron on 04.10.21 at 7:02 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Good quotes sogs. Sounds like the father of MAGA. Times were better when you could just say crap like that. Amirite?
—————–
Well, I think Philip was ahead of his time.
From my personal experience, that “crap” is becomming hip again.
Hate against Asians is going up exponentially.

===============================

Actually I don’t think “hate” goes up or down much ever. People are, always were, and always will be, incredibly tribal. Having lived in Asia and the ME, I can assure you that “anti-white”, or “anti-not-like-us”, is absolutely equally or more prevalent, (and without any pretence or attempt to hide it), as any bigotry towards Asians or others in Canada/US.

What varies is the expressions of said differences. Those do fluctuate over time. Usually correlated to circumstance: when things are good, people are more magnanimous. Under stress, economic, whatever, they look for something or someone to blame. Canadians falsely credit themselves with being “nice”, but the real test is when times are tough. Then the veneer drops away and the true colours are shown. As the economy gradually crumbles and splits, expect to see a spike in reported attacks on minorities. Which becomes further confused as in many areas, minority has become majority. Who gets to claim the biggest victim prize now?

The biggest mistake the West makes, particularly leftist progressives, is trying to police thought, instead of working to resolve the root cause of tribalism, which is at root fear of the unknown. Simplistic slogans like BLM are useless and in fact will have the opposite effect – such things only reflect small minds on either side. Screaming demonstrators and cancel-culturists of the ilk of AOC only polarize and harden opinions.

People need to get out and meet and actually know different cultures to get over their fears and prejudices. And social media is the worst possible way to “learn” about “other”, the algos promote precisely the opposite.

#96 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.11.21 at 7:57 am

#93 Nonplused

I was thinking that maybe man’s laughter will be guilty to make the masses calm because certainty murder it cannot be.

He’s not guiltily fully – clearly. But like you say “fixing it” by giving him a few years and a bag of money to “accept it” would make sense considering the billions damage when “not guilty” comes down. However. you have 14 jurors and at this point this is past a predetermined outcome. Can’t have a fix with 14 people in the know. Judge overrules jury? No chance. Dr. Baker maintained total and complete integrity on the stand and is just too darn credible also. Graham be. Connor test is satisfied here fully.

And so, I don’t see any other outcome at this point outside of not guilty.

Did you catch SNL opening skit last night? Not as bad as Lil Baby at the Grammys keeping camera on the actor playing the cop who shot Brooks, but not showing Brooks GRAB A WEAPON from the cop’s belt and point and fire it at the cop. What does society expect our Police officers to be? Shooting targets? Play Russian roulette with their lives? I have a feeling those Marvel superhero movies are coming to roost – as clearly society doesn’t realize these cops that take on the job to protect is are only human. Dealing with those we ourselves don’t want to deal with. Going to hoods we ourselves dare not venture into perhaps.

What it comes down to is America talks freedom and frowns upon China and North Korea about their media and brainwashing but people in glass houses should throw stones. Clean up your media propaganda machine first and get back to center and fact based reporting. Probably would cause ratings to drop big.

Did you read the piece in the Globe about Canada’s media? Interesting. Concerning.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-slowly-but-surely-the-government-is-gathering-the-media-into-its/

#86 Sara

I’m not Smoking Man, RIP.

I’m just a Regular Everyday Normal Guy. There is nothing special about me….

#97 Penny Henny on 04.11.21 at 9:07 am

#57 Stone on 04.10.21 at 6:00 pm
#41 Penny Henny on 04.10.21 at 3:05 pm
#9 Stone on 04.10.21 at 10:23 am
On a side note, I’m curious. Did Garth contract out his services to the Toronto Star and Heather Mallick? Reading the below article, all I could think was, this so reeks of Garth.

//////////////////

Heather Mallick is a nutjob. Just like you.

———

Really? I thought it was really well written. It’s the reason I thought of Garth when I read it.
//////////////////

You’re putting Heather Mallick’s writing on the same level as Garth’s? Now who’s insulting who?

#98 ARegularDogBlog? on 04.11.21 at 9:12 am

The defense for former Minneapolis cop Derek Chauvin is relying upon centuries of racial stereotypes and health inequities to make a case for his acquittal.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-commentary/george-floyd-trial-derek-chauvin-racism-1153952/

#99 Love_The_Cottage on 04.11.21 at 10:01 am

#26 Ryan Lewenza on 04.10.21 at 12:20 pm
Almost all major countries have huge deficits right now so it’s a bit of a wash…
…but I think they miss that the whole world is in debt. – Ryan L
_________
A point lost by the comments here multiple times per day while trashing T2.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.21 at 10:16 am

@#87 CjohnC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iH6WldfzsZY

Great link/video…..

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.21 at 10:22 am

@#95 Billy Bob

“…..As the economy gradually crumbles and splits, expect to see a spike in reported attacks on minorities. Which becomes further confused as in many areas, minority has become majority. Who gets to claim the biggest victim prize now?

The biggest mistake the West makes, particularly leftist progressives, is trying to police thought, instead of working to resolve the root cause of tribalism, which is at root fear of the unknown. Simplistic slogans like BLM are useless and in fact will have the opposite effect – such things only reflect small minds on either side. Screaming demonstrators and cancel-culturists of the ilk of AOC only polarize and harden opinions….”

+++++

All this makes too much sense.
Please stop.
The Safe room is now full of the easily offended who now realize most people dont like what they have to say.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.11.21 at 10:49 am

#95 BillyBob
Agree with you that hatred/racism is probably part of humankind’s nature.
And it can lay latent for some time.
But, occasionally, for some reason, it’s erupts into verbal and physical abuses and can have catastrophic consequences.
Nazi Germany is a good example.
And before this happens, common people, regardless of political stripes, must step in to stop it.
Ever watched “The savage Peace”?

#103 Another Deckchair on 04.11.21 at 11:35 am

Ryan:

” but I do not see oil prices hitting $90-100/bl any time soon”

Of course not; that’d make the US Shale production get back on its’ feet, and no other country wants *that* to happen!

#104 Exodus 2020 on 04.12.21 at 12:16 am

Inflation… what is going on with inflation? Inflation is almost non-existent, or is it? Market rent goes up 7% per year in my area at least. Homes go up at least the same amount. CPI is based on the market prices of a basket of goods, EXCEPT THE MARKET RATE OF RENT OR HOUSING. For that, they just take an average, so those that have zero costs or rent controlled from 1985 are included. This is truly fuel for something to break, inflation could rapidly rise if those on the lower end of the average quickly dwindle off (die or move and pay market rate) at the same time and require a rapid interest increases by the central bank.