Is that it?

Was that just a first warning shot over the realtors’ bow? Or the only volley?

Yesterday the federal bank cop upped the stress test rate, effective June 1st. Now anyone seeking an uninsured home loan has to prove the ability to carry payments at (a) the market rate +2%, or (b) at 5.25%, whichever hurts more.

Here’s what it means:

  • About 5% of first-time buyers will have to borrow less or live under a bridge.
  • Tighter credit limits may mean a harder time getting a HELOC
  • The crazy almost-two-month-long warning may goose real estate sales and prices between now and the end of May.
  • The feds smell trouble. “The current Canadian housing market conditions have the potential to put lenders at increased financial risk,” says the regulator.
  • This is protect the banks, not the borrowers. “Lenders can experience losses both through the potential inability of borrowers to meet their debt obligations, as well as through declining values of the real estate properties pledged as collateral in mortgage loans,” says Ottawa
  • The authorities are getting ready for a significant bump in mortgage rates once the pandemic is over (whenever the hell that may be).

So it’s something. But not a big thing. The feds are starting to acknowledge way too many people have taken on far too much debt. Mortgages which are not CMHC-insured pose a special risk to banks (of course) and this was the original reason the stress test came into being after the last bubble episode, in 2017-8. But since then things have just become more flaky, squirrely and scary.

These days real estate prices are totally out of control (a property in Renfrew, of all godforsaken places, just sold for $1 million over ask), household mortgage debt increased by $118 billion in the last 12 months and the percentage of people in the danger zone (loans surpassing 450% of income) is almost 25%. “We will continue to monitor housing market conditions across the country,” says the finance department. “To inform potential steps the government may take, we will closely examine the results of the consultation announced by the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.”

Hmm. That was suitably turgid and thick.

So what does it all mean?

Baby steps. Ottawa is clearly betting (a) house lust will eventually ease and FOMO-addled brains will repair, maybe; (b) mortgages are going to cost a lot more when Covid leaves and interest rates move back into a more normal zone; and (c) the last thing the T2 gang wants is for real estate to deflate, even though this is crashing family budgets and crushing affordability. Now that the slimy little pathogen has killed off tourism, travel and the service sector, housing matters. Nesting Millennials, be damned.

The announcement this week does little to chill the market and may in fact heat it up for the next six weeks. It may also signal the feds would rather see regulatory curbs used instead of policy changes to prick the bubble. And maybe it tells us that, ultimately, they like the gasbag just fine.

So will the first budget in two years be silent on real estate?

Beats me. No hints have been made. No balloons floated. At any time Chrystia could have dropped the market temperature with a warning about speculation and excess. She chose not to. They’re letting this thing run hot – following the lead of the Bank of Canada, stoking inflation, feeding expectations and now just easing up a little on the supply of tawdry debt.

It’s no surprise then this change was announced just a few days before the big reveal in Ottawa. ‘Toughening up’ on mortgage lending by the bank cop gives the politicians some cover for doing little or nothing more.

The perfect storm continues. Cheap money. Five million in WFH mode. Lockdowns and quarantines feeding the nesting instinct. Speculation, flipping, FOMO, spring and willing lenders – all fanning the flames around us. The move this week is to shelter the banks. It’s not to help your kid leverage a house, or shield her from herself.

That’s your job

About the picture: “This is Andy, the Welsh Springer Spaniel,” says James. “He lives in the Gulf Islands of BC. He turned five last week and is a deeply loved member of our family. Feel free to use this on your blog if you want. Thank you for all the great advice. Keep going.”

169 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 04.09.21 at 10:36 am

Military deployed. This is about public health yes? How do guys with guns “help fight covid”??

TORONTO — The military is advising people in the Toronto area to expect a large number of its personnel and vehicles on the roads starting on Monday.
The Department of National Defence says members of the Joint Task Force Central will be heading from units across Ontario to Canadian Forces Base Borden.
The movement is part of the government’s fight against COVID-19

— The camp is built @ Sunnybrook hospital. Look it is painted drab Army green.
*** A guard tower made of scaffolding runs its length.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyaQXtaXMAQVvgC?format=jpg&name=900×900

——-
This is the goal, end all small business and self-suffiency.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/taxed-on-the-air-vancouver-restaurant-dinged-by-b-c-s-vacancy-tax-for-open-space-above-building-1.5377262
Rodriguez has already seen neighbouring shops shut down during the pandemic. He fears the added expense of the SVT, on top of rising property taxes, will be the final nail in the coffin for even more small businesses in Kitsilano and beyond.


For years the Kooks said the plan lies in bankruptcy for all the Former First Countries.
Et tu , Kanada? Majority of the country is in Economic Shutdowns, record debt/defecit. Down below us:

““New York will now offer one-time payments of up to $15,600 to undocumented immigrants who lost work during the pandemic,” the report continued.
“The effort – a $2.1 billion fund in the state budget – is by far the biggest of its kind in the country and a sign of the state’s shift toward policies championed by progressive Democrats.””

#2 We are all in Freeland together on 04.09.21 at 10:41 am

What could possibly go wrong. When will it be that peeps start to realize there are consequences to voting (or not) in elections. Woke up before it’s too late.

#3 clayton martin on 04.09.21 at 10:46 am

So what your saying is this housing bubble can go on forever?

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 10:47 am

It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.
Nary a for sale sign.
Maybe the calm before the storm.

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 10:50 am

#99 Sail Away on 04.08.21 at 7:10 pm
So helpful, those Americans. As promised, now delivered:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/04/08/the-us-may-soon-have-a-vaccine-surplus-heres-what-that-means-for-canada.html

“Canada has received 1.5 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines produced in the United States.”
———————————
I know.
Don’t check the mouth of a gift horse.
But, the Amis really don’t trust the AstraZeneca vaccine.

#6 Gen Z Investor on 04.09.21 at 11:06 am

I don’t think RE prices will ever fall, they may just plateau as wages inflate to keep up.

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 11:09 am

“So will the first budget in two years be silent on real estate?”

++++

They’re trying to figure out what gets first priority.
Free Postcards for everyone, Free Pink shirts, Rainbow sidewalks or raise the GST another 2%, 4%, 6% ?

#8 Gus on 04.09.21 at 11:11 am

The damage been done . What ever measures they introduce will not help.
The prices doubled in few months. These prices will be norm for speculators and impossible for majorty of people.
Government looking for revenues. Too bad.

#9 Prince Polo on 04.09.21 at 11:29 am

Is Renfrew where all of the mega-yacht owners have summer homes? If so, there’s a reason I’ve never heard of it….

#10 household built on 04.09.21 at 11:34 am

303,000 new jobs added to economy,,, how many are connected to RE

#11 Penny Henny on 04.09.21 at 11:38 am

Niagara Region real estate numbers for March are in.

March 2020-March 2021
Sales-533 -1081 up 102.8%
Benchmark price- $452,400 – $620,700 up 37.2%
New Listings- 913 – 1471 up 61.1%
Days on market- 37 – 16 down 56.8%

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/files/March%202021%20-%20Media%20Release%20%28COMPLETE%29.pdf

#12 FriedEggs on 04.09.21 at 11:43 am

DELETED

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 11:51 am

@#4 Pondering Ponzerelli

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.
Nary a for sale sign.
Maybe the calm before the storm.”

+++

Maybe your reputation precedes you.

#14 J on 04.09.21 at 11:52 am

Today’s example of excesses would be a prime example of imposing a luxury tax on all money over asking. Price it fairly and within market values. Full luxury tax on the million over asking. There have been years of gathering info on sales. Use it. Make it retroactive.

#15 Dr V on 04.09.21 at 11:59 am

4 Ponzie

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.”

Ponz – isn’t this the problem? Low listing inventory?
Way too many potential purchasers for too few properties.

Neighbour across street sold over asking for $1M. Moving to interior to be closer to family, tried for a
house there but was outbid.

It’s everywhere.

#16 What is Even Happening? on 04.09.21 at 11:59 am

“‘Toughening up’ on mortgage lending by the bank cop gives the politicians some cover for doing little or nothing more.” – sadly, true.

We need politicians with the courage to do what is good for their citizens, even if it’s an unpopular decision. We don’t need more myopic politicians who instead care more about how they look, getting re-elected, and deflecting responsibility and blame.

I’m looking at you, Trudeau – a man who is cares more about looking good than doing good.

#17 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 12:03 pm

If they restrict the mortgages to the city your home is currently in, and you can only buy in that city, then people from the city won’t be able to sell their pricey homes and up the price on lower priced homes outside their city.
Example: you live in Toronto, so you cannot buy in Renfrew, only Toronto.

#18 Flop... on 04.09.21 at 12:08 pm

This listing encapsulates why no one can work out what is going on in Vancouver real estate.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5114-fairmont-street

Everything is upside down…

M46BC

#19 Andrewski on 04.09.21 at 12:19 pm

From what I read this morning:
“The move will effectively reduce by about 4% the size of mortgages households will be eligible to take”.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 12:23 pm

@#18 Flop

“Everything is upside down…”

+++

Impressive construction.
A very well built house to handle the stress and strain of the unique Liberal style.
Up is down.

#21 DON on 04.09.21 at 12:28 pm

At this point it is all about getting re-elected. Once that is sorted out and a majority obtained…then common sense policies have a good chance at being implemented.

Full throttle off the cliff. Dam the rocks below.

#22 Immigrant man on 04.09.21 at 12:31 pm

Increasing the stress test at this point by that measly amount is like putting a bandaid on a patient that has cancer.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 12:37 pm

15 Dr V on 04.09.21 at 11:59 am
4 Ponzie

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.”

Ponz – isn’t this the problem? Low listing inventory?
Way too many potential purchasers for too few properties.

Neighbour across street sold over asking for $1M. Moving to interior to be closer to family, tried for a
house there but was outbid.

It’s everywhere
—————-
You are right.
I just thought there would be more activity, given that it’s traditionally the busiest time.
And some owners may wanna cash out.
We are tempted.
Easy money.

#24 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 12:37 pm

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 10:50 am
#99 Sail Away on 04.08.21 at 7:10 pm

So helpful, those Americans. As promised, now delivered:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/04/08/the-us-may-soon-have-a-vaccine-surplus-heres-what-that-means-for-canada.html

“Canada has received 1.5 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines produced in the United States.”

——–

I know.
Don’t check the mouth of a gift horse.
But, the Amis really don’t trust the AstraZeneca vaccine.

——–

Correct. Good plan to ship it here where people will inject anything for bragging rights.

#25 bdwy sktrn on 04.09.21 at 12:49 pm

#17 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 12:03 pm
If they restrict the mortgages to the city your home is currently in, and you can only buy in that city, then people from the city won’t be able to sell their pricey homes and up the price on lower priced homes outside their city.
Example: you live in Toronto, so you cannot buy in Renfrew, only Toronto.
———————-
umm, the toronto (and van) sellers moving to the country dont need a mortgage.

#26 Leftover on 04.09.21 at 12:50 pm

There’s a cold wind blowing.

As the US opens up, months ahead of Canada, they’ll need skilled people throughout their health care, infrastructure and technology sectors. People with those skills will be treated generously at the border.

If you are a young Canadian nurse, doctor, engineer or software developer, you are shut out of the housing market, even if you can muster $1,000,000.

Why would you bother staying in Canada when that amount gets you this in a place like Austin?

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4520-Eagle-Feather-Dr_Austin_TX_78735_M87133-29284

…as well as Portland, Boulder, Asheville and countless other vibrant, safe and welcoming cities in Joe Biden’s America.

Why would you stay here? You wouldn’t.

#27 Damifino on 04.09.21 at 12:53 pm

#3 clayton martin

So what your saying is this housing bubble can go on forever?
‐‐—————–

Yes. This time it finally is different.

#28 Roial1 on 04.09.21 at 12:54 pm

#24 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 12:37 pm

Correct. Good plan to ship it here where people will inject anything for bragging rights.

Yep. And as we should too. The odds of blood clots are so far below the odds of winning the lottery that it is a fools bet NOT to take it.

Covid is NO JOKE!

#29 TheDood on 04.09.21 at 12:57 pm

Wonder how good this is going to be for a recovering economy.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/53-of-canadians-on-the-brink-of-insolvency-mnp-survey-1.1587379

Keep borrowing, spending and buying, rates are low! Sheesh.

#30 bdwy sktrn on 04.09.21 at 1:01 pm

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 12:37 pm
15 Dr V on 04.09.21 at 11:59 am
4 Ponzie

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.”

Ponz – isn’t this the problem? Low listing inventory?
Way too many potential purchasers for too few properties.

Neighbour across street sold over asking for $1M. Moving to interior to be closer to family, tried for a
house there but was outbid.

It’s everywhere
—————-
You are right.
I just thought there would be more activity, given that it’s traditionally the busiest time.
And some owners may wanna cash out.
We are tempted.
Easy money.

—————————
i was starting to wonder if there was a pause happening too.
anything around here had been selling instantly, leaving zero inventory , then 3 new listings (all tear downs) popped up and for almost 2 weeks there seemed no action. this morning’s walk with the border collie , we saw 3/3 sold.

teardowns selling for ask +just a bit, now near 1.8m
nice places going way over – 2.2. to 2.4
this in sketchy east van.

back to zero inventory. no pause yet.

yvr knows the hk situation with china and expects a flood of returning $$$.

#31 Dogman01 on 04.09.21 at 1:05 pm

#16 What is Even Happening? on 04.09.21 at 11:59 am

“We need politicians with the courage to do what is good for their citizens, even if it’s an unpopular decision. We don’t need more myopic politicians who instead care more about how they look, getting re-elected, and deflecting responsibility and blame.”

——————————————-

Hierarchy of Priorities for Canadian Political Parties:

Serve their Masters: Ensure the established elite of Canada are free to harness Canada as their exclusive means to continue to extract wealth, power and privilege. (The Farmers)

Serve the oligopoly : ensure the sectors of Canada , banks, Telco’s and resource extraction maintain their moat in a captured market.

Serve Both above: ensure the Canadian population remains docile ill-informed and compliant.

Lastly: Get re-elected: beat the Blue Tie or Red Tie team so you get to reward your friends.

You are living in Mouseland: https://www.canadashistory.ca/explore/politics-law/tommy-douglas-takes-mouseland

#32 Wrk.dover on 04.09.21 at 1:17 pm

Just in time for people short on living money; I was just in the Atlantic version of Loblaws, and 80% of the cereal is now in miniature boxes. About 1.5″X8″X11″ maybe 300grams. The prices look about the same as the bigger boxes were when on sale though.

It looked like the boxes in a hotel breakfast bar, Texas sized.

#33 Concerned Citizen on 04.09.21 at 1:19 pm

To prick the bubble would imply declining asset prices. Who expects central bankers will allow that to happen? Just look at the major stock indices – they’re on a way trip to Mars (if they haven’t arrived there already).

This is without a doubt the scariest time I can remember since the late 90’s to be investing the in the stock markets. Valuations are through the roof and there is a full-on mania pushing prices higher day in, day out. But of course now we have central banks and perceived nationalized markets, so maybe I shouldn’t worry.

#34 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 1:20 pm

#24 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 12:37 pm
#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 10:50 am
#99 Sail Away on 04.08.21 at 7:10 pm

So helpful, those Americans. As promised, now delivered:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/04/08/the-us-may-soon-have-a-vaccine-surplus-heres-what-that-means-for-canada.html

“Canada has received 1.5 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines produced in the United States.”
——–
I know.
Don’t check the mouth of a gift horse.
But, the Amis really don’t trust the AstraZeneca vaccine.
——–
Correct. Good plan to ship it here where people will inject anything for bragging right

*************************************
Here’s a 7 minute video explaining the various vaccines & why % efficacy isn’t the only consideration.

https://www.vox.com/22311625/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-johnson-moderna-pfizer

Scheduled for my 1st AstraZeneca shot this afternoon. Roll up the sleeve to win. WooHoo!

#35 Former Navy Chief on 04.09.21 at 1:21 pm

#1 TurnerNation

“Military deployed. This is about public health yes? How do guys with guns “help fight covid”??”

In all your rambling “wisdom”, haven’t you heard of Aid to Civil Power? That’s when the Military is deployed to assist in dealing with a national emergency. Look up the Red River Floods, numerous instances of forest fires, etc.

If you look closely, you will not find any guns with deployed units, except perhaps for the odd Military Police officer.

I normally just read past your interminable alarmist comments, but this one struck a note.

#36 Pete on 04.09.21 at 1:25 pm

Considering that banks basically ignore the stress test, this is meaningless in practice without an actual announcement from our leaders that RE is out of control and rules need to be followed. The banks will fudge the numbers to get a mortgage out. Otherwise, the other bank gets the sale. It’s all about reporting numbers.

#37 Ken on 04.09.21 at 1:26 pm

#6 GenZ

Check a house price chart for the GTA from 1989-1997 if you think house prices can’t fall – and interest rates were falling all the while.

Writers for ‘The Economist’ assert that GTA housing may be as great as 50% over-valued. Look out below!

#38 TheSpangler on 04.09.21 at 1:27 pm

They are bumping up the restrictions for the uninsured loans, but what about the insured loans?

#39 Trevor Davies on 04.09.21 at 1:32 pm

What about this though?

Canadian housing is risk free. Adam Vaughn, the LPC member supposedly in charge of housing affordability, said just the other day on TVO that even a 10% decline after a 30% increase would not be acceptable, because it might put some of the newest buyers underwater.

https://www.tvo.org/video/what-should-the-government-do-about-housing

#40 Dad on 04.09.21 at 1:33 pm

The Kids just bought a house.
they actually made an offer under asking and
it was accepted…. in the 905!

As long the bank of Mom and Dad is willing to chip in with
down payment help the government measures will only exclude the less fortunate who do not have family members with some sort of equity …

of course once the equity ponzi scheme continues Canadians will happy to pony up hoping to see grandchildren sooner rather than later…

Hormones … who can fight them

Dad

#41 Wog on 04.09.21 at 1:35 pm

I don’t seen an incentive for government to step in and curb a hot real estate market, especially when we have a 70% home ownership rate. Those are all potential voters who are happy with their paper or realized gains. Not to mention higher prop values = more tax collected..

#42 Ex-Liberal on 04.09.21 at 1:40 pm

Young adults under 40 and poor people mainly vote for Liberals, yet the Liberals have ignored their supporter base.

The NDP might pull the slack by gaining more votes.

Jagmeet has done a great job listening and responding to every concern of a housing bubble, while the Liberal MPs promise 1,000 affordable units by the year 2999 and they sometimes block emails from those who demand accountability.

These liberals in Ottawa are more like crony capitalists than liberals.

#43 Dad on 04.09.21 at 1:46 pm

There are 5 names on title next door.
There are clearly 5 family’s living next door.
It’s a modestly large suburban home on a nice street in the 905.
All of these folks are newer arrivals to Canada as were my own parents in the 60’s.

With no let up in the number of newcomers Canada needs there will be no end to the creative ways people will come up with to grab their piece of the Canadian dream…

Yes things will get ugly when interest rates climb.

Meanwhile there are lots of people in Hong Kong and the Asian subcontinent willing to crowd into the Canadian Lifeboat…
so at least you will have overpriced housing blog material for a few more years…

I’m not saying one should get in at any price …
but folks need to live somewhere and the GTA and GVA seem to be the first choice for those seeking the promised land…

let’s be thankful we are already here and hopefully not stuck with a Monster McMortgage

#44 Woke you! on 04.09.21 at 1:46 pm

#41 Wog, we all agree with your comment but but but, in the UK, “wog” is a derogatory and racially offensive slang word referring to a non-white, or darker-skinned white person, including people from the Middle East, North Africa, the Indian subcontinent, other parts of Asia such as the East Indies, or the Mediterranean area, including Southern Europeans. Stick with “Wag” it fits with the blog.

#45 Guelph Guru on 04.09.21 at 1:54 pm

If Mr. PM wants votes from home owners who are 70%, then the party should go on. Kick the can down the road. Lots of bark, no bite.

#46 Faron on 04.09.21 at 2:00 pm

#141 DON on 04.08.21 at 10:26 pm

Is the Archegos methodology being used by other market gamblers?

Yes to varying degrees of leverage. Horizons total return ETFs use swaps as a means of delivering the total return of various indexes with less worry of dealing with dividend tax issues. The bank holds the shares while Horizons holds sufficient backing cash (or something like that). No leverage, 1:1 backing.

It’s almost certain — given how lucrative Archegos style leveraging is for the primary brokers — that there are more Archegos out there. Swaps also kept Archegos out of the eyes of SEC scrutiny which is another reason there are likely more and similar. But, we won’t know until the equity markets get pooped and they fold. Who knows, maybe the seeds for the next financial crisis?

Archegos went above and beyond with both high leverage ratios and apparently backing the swaps at various institutions with the same collateral. Hopefully there’s less of that, but again, we can’t know because of the opacity of swaps.

Contrarian market note for the week:

Supportive flows from the broader options markets wither next week making it more likely that there’s chop rather than the up + pin we’ve seen lately. Some quants think the window will lead to a big drop possibly after a blow-off rally to SPY $420 on 4/20 ’cause memes. RSI on the S&P is cracking 70, continually closing at +2 sigma. Probably not a bad time to ensure you are balanced in case the latest equity run has put your port anything other.

#47 Hilroy on 04.09.21 at 2:07 pm

If WFH is going to be the new way, why not buy a home just across the border – like Buffalo, NY – only 2 hours away from Toronto.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Buffalo_NY

#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm

#10 household built on 04.09.21 at 11:34 am
303,000 new jobs added to economy,,, how many are connected to RE

———

Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their realtor licence last month. All in the GTA and Lower Mainland. Considering the commissions made selling one house, they all consider themselves full time.

#49 Dolce Vita on 04.09.21 at 2:18 pm

#99 Sail Away on 04.08.21 at 7:10 pm

VAX HOG USA hasn’t approved AstraZeneca WHY Canada is getting it from them. Those doses were kicking around, couldn’t find an American home, so good old ferret in the chicken coop Gov Canada says we’ll take them off your hands. We can find a home for that unloved, unwanted vax.

Nothing to do with altruistic America the Beautiful. More like get rid of the stuff we don’t approve of.

Giving, caring and sharing America the Beautiful. Brings a tear to my eyes, more like puffs of dust.

Score in doses:

European Union = 8.55M
Once in a lifetime VAX HOG USA =1.5M (cheque since Mar 18 arrived in part)
India Covax HELOC = 0.5M

Forecast doses European Union:

Pfizer Apr 12 to May 30 = 7.16M
Moderna 19 to 25 Apr = 1.2M
Total = 8.36M

Forecast doses VAX HOG USA (a.k.a., America the Beautiful):

BIG FAT GOOSE EGG…well, unless they have more vax they don’t approve of.

—————————-

So to the end of May Canada there is ONLY ONE UNION TO THANK and it isn’t the one south of the border, it’s the one across the pond.

Remember that. Give thanks to the EU that had your back during the pandemic as opposed to those that turned their back on you during the pandemic (a.k.a., All the way USA, Rule Britannia – and BTW: RIP Prince Philip).

I know news travels SLOW to the Left Coast but recall this on Jan 22:

“Ontario premier offers to drive to U.S. himself to pick up more COVID-19 vaccines”

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-offers-to-drive-to-u-s-himself-to-pick-up-more-covid-19-vaccines-1.5278160

VAX HOG USA answer = all for me, none for you (‘cept the stuff we don’t want…later).

——————

#5 Ponzius Pilatus

Don’t hold your breath for America sending any vax to Canada.

With the variants, a 3rd booster will probably be needed…then as always: all for me, none for you ‘cept the stuff we don’t want.

#50 SoggyShorts on 04.09.21 at 2:23 pm

#150 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 6:42 am
a couple of problems with that scenario:
1. Your plumbers who refuse to work for $90 per hour but will for $50/h cash are bad at math.
2. The money you pay those landscapers in exchange for cash gets taxed in the landscapers’ hands so you need to pay them extra to cover that.
3. Very minor advantage vs huge potential downside.

#51 Larry App on 04.09.21 at 2:27 pm

Get this. House around the corner sold for 519 k min January , buyers never moved in nor renoed the property and just re-listed it for 669 k few days ago. I welcome a speculation tax , bring it on

#52 Brian Ripley on 04.09.21 at 2:28 pm

My sales and Inventory, Absorption Rates and Months of Inventory charts are up for the 6 biggest Canadian metros with the March data: http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html

The inventory levels pattern now is similar to 1Q-2Q 2017 when Toronto housing prices first zoomed to then, new peaks. Sales then were also at historic highs. Now Toronto housing sales volumes have put in a very exuberant new peak well above trend.

On the absorption rate chart we have buyers hoovering up anything they can afford (I surmise): http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

Ottawa: 192%
Toronto: 148%

I hope y’all have solid incomes.

#53 FreeBird on 04.09.21 at 2:31 pm

Beautiful dog. As we’re all sent in.

#54 Dolce Vita on 04.09.21 at 2:34 pm

Yesterday commented and I was all happy for Canada (where my cash & investments are, sorry Italia) that the Variants NOT going exponential.

Spoke too soon.

Yesterday was a DISASTROUS day for Canada. I’ll keep it short, just a few numbers:

Apr 7 to Apr 8 new variant cases*:

738 → 8,126

about +1,000% in a day.

Cumulative cases +3024% in the past 45 days.

Tweeted CTV Variant Tracker if by chance there was a typo on Apr 8. There wasn’t.

NO CHART:

Equus mortuus verberans.

—————————–

Still waiting for the robust lady to sing. Sick and tired of the DAMN VIRUS and its DEVIL SPAWN as I expect everyone on the planet is.

*Just checked Apr 9 variant numbers and at 10:25 AM EDT, already up a couple thousand.

Oh jeez.

#55 VGRO and chill on 04.09.21 at 2:39 pm

I’m afraid that may be all from the feds.

If there’s anything this government has done consistency over the years, it’s: give everybody the hand-out they want, and damn the consequences.

#56 Alberta Ed on 04.09.21 at 2:39 pm

Somewhere there is a fox hole with a swack of Liberals cowering in it.

#57 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 2:40 pm

#42 Ex-Liberal on 04.09.21 at 1:40 pm
Young adults under 40 and poor people mainly vote for Liberals, yet the Liberals have ignored their supporter base.

The NDP might pull the slack by gaining more votes.

Jagmeet has done a great job listening and responding to every concern of a housing bubble, while the Liberal MPs promise 1,000 affordable units by the year 2999 and they sometimes block emails from those who demand accountability.

These liberals in Ottawa are more like crony capitalists than liberals.
***************************************
Wealthy Canadians that didn’t have to earn their money (“old money”) tend to be Liberals. Driving through Calgary’s Mount Royal during an election year you’ll see many Liberal signs on front lawns. I know a few of them and it’s mind numbing. They can be very nice people but tend to think simplistically. Reminds me of a beauty pageant contestant who only wants world peace.

#58 Linda on 04.09.21 at 2:42 pm

Regarding banks. First, they have a lien on any RE they hold the mortgage on. So if the putative owner can’t service the debt they took on, the bank can sell the asset. Of course, the bank may have a problem with eviction prior to sale given Covid restrictions on same but who knows? Maybe they’d just disclose to any potential buyers that the RE is occupied & leave it up to the buyer to evict.

Second, the banks are the ones making the decision to loan $ to people. Having lived through the RE carnage in the 1980’s in Alberta I clearly recall the banks posting billion dollar profits even as they moaned about how repossessing all those properties was hurting their bottom lines. Have to hand it to the banks, they know how to make a profit even during bad times. I’ve confidence that should the bubble burst the banks will do just fine.

#59 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:48 pm

#49 Dolce Vita on 04.09.21 at 2:18 pm

Don’t hold your breath for America sending any vax to Canada.

———

It’s already arrived and is being administered, you crazy person.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 2:49 pm

@#32 Wrk.Dvr

” I was just in the Atlantic version of Loblaws,”

+++

Good old Sobeys.
The little Stellarton haberdashery that became a goliath.

They snapped up all the Canada Safeway’s out west a few years back and are now a nation wide food supplier.

#61 Or Best Offer on 04.09.21 at 2:52 pm

If building costs have gone up 300% in the last year, then wouldn’t most homeowner’s insurance policies now be worth way less than they need to be?

#62 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:55 pm

#50 SoggyShorts on 04.09.21 at 2:23 pm
#150 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 6:42 am

a couple of problems with that scenario:

1. Your plumbers who refuse to work for $90 per hour but will for $50/h cash are bad at math.
2. The money you pay those landscapers in exchange for cash gets taxed in the landscapers’ hands so you need to pay them extra to cover that.
3. Very minor advantage vs huge potential downside.

———-

Yes, it doesn’t make any sense to pocket a small amount of extra cash by greatly increasing logistical complexity and large network of shysters engaging in federal fraud.

Committing tax fraud felonies for peanuts is known as ‘not good business sense’.

Easier far to put in for extras with the client, or take a hit on this project and propose better fees for the next.

#63 Dan in Nanaimo on 04.09.21 at 2:55 pm

It’s all effortless wealth and blue skies ahead.

Brought to you by the FED and CB’S with their low (and soon to become negative) interest rate policies

Remember, the only thing that really matters is that you keep insisting for more money. You deserve it.

#64 Dolce Vita on 04.09.21 at 2:58 pm

Garth, I have to stop reading N. American news esp. that from my Gov Canada.

Cdn MSM chortling away about many young getting sick with the variants kicking around.

Ya right.

So idiot inquisitive me decides to check out if that is the truth and not SCARE MONGERING.

Scroll to Fig. 3 in the Demographics section and “Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’intrate”:

“COVID-19 daily epidemiology update” *

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#VOC

Damn near had an infarction. 52% of all Covid cases are UNDER 40. 67% of all Covid cases are UNDER 50. It’s not that the very old have been vax’d, look at the absolute numbers instead.

Still the vast majority, about 67%, being hospitalized, ICU are over 60. Regardless a lot of kids getting sick, not good.

————————-

* For extra torture, peruse Fig. 1b (default: Moving Average of cases (last 7 days)). For nictus, click on the “Relative Scale” button, greys its background.

PS:

Gov Canada, great job at scaring the living daylights out of me, still, an excellent data rich site. Nicely done indeed.

#65 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm

#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm

Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their realtor licence last month.

——–

Doubtful. Prove it.

#66 FreeBird on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm

A crazy idea for concerns/questions about new vaccines (or any new drug): do your own research from credible independent sources incl actual studies and talk to medical professionals you trust who’ve read original studies and study reviews. Fortunately mine have and access infectious disease depts at a large T.O. hosp. They answer any concerns (many) I’ve had related to my situation vs gen public. Just a suggestion.

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 3:01 pm

#49 Dolce
#5 Ponzius Pilatus

Don’t hold your breath for America sending any vax to Canada.

With the variants, a 3rd booster will probably be needed…then as always: all for me, none for you ‘cept the stuff we don’t want.
————–
I won’t hold my breath.
My mother told me about the Marshall plan.
Nothing but a publicity stunt.
They sent crappy equipment and appliances to Germany.
And then gave them a loan to pay for it.
Helped the American industry more than it helped the Europeans.

#68 Steven Rowlandson on 04.09.21 at 3:12 pm

New trick for Canadians. Offer less for a home. Compete with each other to see who can offer the least amount for a home on a lot. It is simple, offer equal to or less than 3 years pay based on one pathetic inflation fighting minimum wage income.
It is easy math. Down payment? A measly 25% with the balance paid over 25 years at a fixed rate. Try it you will like saving money for other things.

#69 cto on 04.09.21 at 3:17 pm

Garth,
Is Tiff somehow vindicated from this terrible mess???…. Why is he hands off????
IMO the BOC policy measures of “O” interest rates “into the distant future”, is just about 100% responsible for the insanity happening out there right now! By making that statement, Tiff created maximum moral hazard and this mania, but no one calls him out on it….
As well, the last 5 years has proven 1 thing, and that is the only factor that will sufficiently bring housing back to fundamentals is interest rates. Everything else is very small potato’s. In 2017 it was clearly the interest rates that did the trick,…until they (BOC) chickened out.
Every other measure was microscopic.
There seems to be a threshold of around 2-3%. Anything below that,… and its wild west.

#70 Don on 04.09.21 at 3:42 pm

So much fro cooling hoopla! Nothing is going to happen folks. Nothing will be done except for efforts to protect the big 5 banks. This wire will become a forest fire before it burns itself out. With Corvid and Free money debt in the billions, Canada cannot afford to lose all the foreign money that is pouring in from foreign investors. They will not do anything to stop it. Do you think they ruin the reelection by introducing a capital gain tax on the home? The only time this burns out is when US rates start to rise. 2022!

#71 Lee on 04.09.21 at 3:44 pm

How long before CMHC just starts insuring properties worth $1,500,000. I’m sure it’s coming.

#72 Flop... on 04.09.21 at 3:48 pm

I’ve been here a while now, at Garth’s urging in recent years, I’ve only just started to use my right to vote.

Never say never, they say, but I’ve yet to vote Liberal in any form.

I might one day, but it definitely won’t be while Trudeau’s in charge.

Can’t stand that little sock sucker…

M46BC

#73 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.09.21 at 3:49 pm

@#4 Pondering Ponzerelli

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.
Nary a for sale sign.
Maybe the calm before the storm.”
==============================
Not all realtors put up signs anymore. Best to check on rew.ca what’s listed in your neighborhood.
If you target the overseas market a sign is not needed as the buyer’s agent sees the listing or gets a call from another realtor friend who is listing.
A sign is actually detrimental as it brings in useless showings from the neighborhood with no intention to buy.
Nobody in the Vancouver price range who is serious about buying drives around anymore to look at for sale signs ,especially now during COVID. It all moved online.

#74 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 3:50 pm

If we raised the GST 3% and used the net new amount to pay back the covid debt, how long would it take?

#75 SoggyShorts on 04.09.21 at 4:08 pm

#65 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm
#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm
Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their realtor licence last month.
——–
Doubtful. Prove it.

****************************
Hmmm, I thought they might be joking.
Pretty sad when a poster spouts so much BS that we can’t tell the difference.

Maybe it’s just Stone math?
if 10% returns are actually 6%, then 300K realtors are probably closer to 180K?

#76 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 4:10 pm

There are properties in CHILLIWACK BC that were just sold less than a year ago, now RELISTED 50% HIGHER!!!

This one was bought at the start of wave 2 and is for sale during wave 3, asking over 50% more!

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23040955/10015-fairbanks-crescent-chilliwack

Bought Sept 2020: $629,900
Asking Price: $958,900
Profit: $329,000!!!!! (52% profit, before fees)

They are pumping the description using all of the past owner upgrades. Classic!! I’m sure the previous owner (who was probably local) is PIIIISED!!!

There you go, Garth. Tax free gains. Selling at the peak.

#77 Freedom First on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm

Yes, it is always wise to monitor someone when they are sinking in quicksand to see if they get in a dangerous position.

Freedom First

#78 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm

#50 Soggyshorts
#62 Sailaway

No one said the plumber gets $90 per hour. It’s 1.5 times the $50 rate the rest goes to the union for benefits etc. So at 50 per hour 40 hour week is 2k or just under $1400 after tax. If the plumber works 8 hours Saturday that’s $400 extra or $1650 total after tax. Now most guys will not want to work an extra day for $250. But for $400 cash they all jump at it.

The landscaper takes on a cash job for 50k. He has expenses, stone, grass, dirt etc etc. So let’s say the raw material is 15k. Now when he accepts the cash he can’t really deduct the 15k in material and not have any sales. So now a landscaper might do 500k in work of which 150k is raw materials. He then bills the plumbing company 200k of which 150k is deducted and 50k goes on salary. Rinse repeat etc etc.

Go ask anyone that does landscaping and I bet you won’t find one not working for cash.

I’m not making this up. It’s a fact, everyone does it.

#79 theoryAndPractice on 04.09.21 at 4:30 pm

#18 Flop… on 04.09.21 at 12:08 pm

Best explanation I saw in years, besides , it is really :) upside down !

#80 Northshore guy on 04.09.21 at 4:31 pm

5548 Molina Rd, North Vancouver
Listed for 2.580
Sold over asking for 2.700

Previously sold for 2.480 in March 2016

This bubble is now getting bigger than Vancouver madness of 2016

Every week prices are going up while BoC, government are busy being concerned and closely watching from outside, they don’t care, they are all homeowners.

As for OSFI, 45 basis point is nothing, extra 20k in downpayment will fix that

#81 VladTor on 04.09.21 at 4:32 pm

Garth … federal bank cop upped the stress test rate, effective June 1st.
*******************

Another cosmetic decision. No result. They for sure will do nothing until election.

Garth, they play a game. I don’t understand – why they not start using this new numbers for stress test since tomorrow? It is same like robber will call me and let me know that he will be in my house 1 June. Hide your valuables.

Why rules stress –test so simple? Why rule for stress test not depend from my income.

#82 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 4:34 pm

Here’s another one.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23038898/46080-camrose-avenue-chilliwack

Purchased Oct 2020: $600,000
New Listing: $849,000

They didn’t even move in. Seriously. It’s not even staged.

They’re everywhere. I’ll stop looking, or else I become Flop.

#83 Stone on 04.09.21 at 4:45 pm

#65 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm
#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm

Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their realtor licence last month.

——–

Doubtful. Prove it.

———

Nah. I’d rather tell you about something wonderful and incredible and just down right fabulous. What is it? It’s that wonderful balanced and diversified investment portfolio of mine. Always working so I don’t have to. And does it ever work. My B&D is now at 10.29% ytd. That’s almost as good as my rock hard and chiseled 8 pack abs. And let’s not forget that wonderful hair on my head with the wind blowing through it. Rub tummy!!!

#84 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 4:54 pm

#77 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm
#50 Soggyshorts
#62 Sailaway

No one said the plumber gets $90 per hour. It’s 1.5 times the $50 rate the rest goes to the union for benefits etc. So at 50 per hour 40 hour week is 2k or just under $1400 after tax. If the plumber works 8 hours Saturday that’s $400 extra or $1650 total after tax. Now most guys will not want to work an extra day for $250. But for $400 cash they all jump at it.

The landscaper takes on a cash job for 50k. He has expenses, stone, grass, dirt etc etc. So let’s say the raw material is 15k. Now when he accepts the cash he can’t really deduct the 15k in material and not have any sales. So now a landscaper might do 500k in work of which 150k is raw materials. He then bills the plumbing company 200k of which 150k is deducted and 50k goes on salary. Rinse repeat etc etc.

Go ask anyone that does landscaping and I bet you won’t find one not working for cash.

I’m not making this up. It’s a fact, everyone does it.

———

Extremely rare, if at all. I project manage work with landscaping components all the time.

Who keeps $50k cash on hand for landscaping other than Don Corleone?

First, nobody doing projects of that size pays cash. The work is done under contract, complete with trackable invoices, taxes, holdbacks and project numbers, with pay request certification by qualified personnel. Also regulated by builders lien and standard warranty/maintenance period.

Second, the bookkeepers of all involved firms would need to be fully complicit in the fraud. Bookkeepers are usually paid employees, not owners. What incentive would they have to commit federal fraud?

Any union workers working under the table for cash are risking their livelihood. Not enough incentive.

#85 BlogDog123 on 04.09.21 at 5:01 pm

I wonder how many enlightened “Boomers” will have the conversation with their 30-something kids and say “Just rent and stay on the sidelines for years. Carrying a big mortgage on an overvalued house ain’t no picnic. Carnage is a’coming!”

There are other distractions in life, why not rent a nice enough place and focus your thoughts elsewhere like travel, skills training, raising kids, parties, investing, perhaps what cottages to rent or buy in the future…

#86 Another Deckchair on 04.09.21 at 5:09 pm

@77 I’m Stupid

Way back 25 or so years ago when I worked in a northern european country that was taxed to the hilt, the way it worked from the person I rented a room (cash) from:

– workers. If they are doing visible work from the street, it’s all claimed and paperwork is in order. If they do the work inside or back yard, it’s all cash.

– House selling. Purchaser throws a party to celebrate new house. Invites seller. They sit around table, an an envelope of 10% of the real price is passed underneath table. Saves on taxes.

The higher the taxes, the higher the incentive to save for both sides of the party.

#87 VladTor on 04.09.21 at 5:10 pm

…..This is protect the banks, not the borrowers.
“Lenders can experience losses both through the potential inability of borrowers to meet their debt obligations, as well as through declining values of the real estate properties pledged as collateral in mortgage loans,” says Ottawa
********************

Private banks should not to be protected by government when they borrow money. They should be responsible for they doing. They borrow money – should care risks.

Bad government!

I can’t blame government for corruption. If I’d blame – Garth will ask me – “Do you have evidence” No, I don’t, that’s why I don’t blame. I don’t know.

As told one smart guy – “In Canada we don’t have corruption in offices – we have corruption in our bills”. I couldn’t agree more!

Government, which representing majority voters (not very very minority voters from top bankers) should care about this majority voters and should protect borrowers do not allow banks giving them loans without any serious obligation.

Why, for instance, government not protecting me from buying expensive car which I can’t afford to myself?

#88 Concerned Citizen on 04.09.21 at 5:10 pm

#39 Trevor Davies on 04.09.21 at 1:32 pm
What about this though?

Canadian housing is risk free. Adam Vaughn, the LPC member supposedly in charge of housing affordability, said just the other day on TVO that even a 10% decline after a 30% increase would not be acceptable, because it might put some of the newest buyers underwater.

https://www.tvo.org/video/what-should-the-government-do-about-housing

*****

That is truly terrifying, but it’s where policymakers are at right now. Any time an asset declines price, they view it as a sign of market failure. Vaughan says he wants to be bring the market into balance. Well, I’ve got news for him. There are only two ways to do that – for wages to increase rapidly and real estate prices stay where they are, or for real estate prices to plunge. And I’m here to tell you, wages aren’t going to be increasing rapidly. The degree of economic illiteracy from our policymakers is truly stunning, and it explains a great deal.

When did we start designing policy for the reckless speculators in this country? If someone wants to load themselves to the gills with debt, fine, more power to them. But if their gamble comes back to bite them, that ought to be on them. Surely we want a country designed to benefit the responsible, the prudent, the conservative. It’s totally ass-backwards today, and has been for 12 years since since 2009. I am absolutely sick of it.

It’s a total lost cause. All the major western central banks are purposefully hyper-inflating asset prices like mad, and they show no signs of letting up. Powell seems hell-bent on turning the U.S. into another Venezuela at the rate he’s going. For those without sizeable asset base to keep up with inflation, I hope you like ramen and living in your electric car. We have fundamentalists in charge of economic policy, to the approaching ruin of much of society. And that’s not hyperbole. They’re totally blind to the negative consequences of what they’re doing.

#89 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 5:11 pm

#73 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 3:50 pm
If we raised the GST 3% and used the net new amount to pay back the covid debt, how long would it take?
*********
1% increase = $5 billion, so 3% = $15 billion.
$400 billion covid debt ÷ $15 billion =26.66 years.

Our national debt, say $1 trillion ÷ 15 billion = 66.66 years.

And that’s just the principal without factoring in interest.

#90 YVR 60% Crash on 04.09.21 at 5:12 pm

#34 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 1:20 pm

Scheduled for my 1st AstraZeneca shot this afternoon. Roll up the sleeve to win. WooHoo!

——————————-

Let hope that you’re not one of those 10 customers received expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 shots at one of its pharmacies in Burnaby.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/09/covid-19-astrazeneca-expired-burnaby/

#91 Rainman on 04.09.21 at 5:21 pm

The market always sorts it self out. Tinkering with it in the past has just added unintended consequences, so best to just leave it alone. It will do what it needs to do and be correct in the end.

#92 Faron on 04.09.21 at 5:22 pm

#69 Don on 04.09.21 at 3:42 pm

So much fro cooling…

I kinda have a fro, I’d love to know your secrets with summer on its way…

#93 Editrix on 04.09.21 at 5:22 pm

When my husband said that it’ll be a long time before the pandemic is over, my autistic daughter, who doesn’t say much, said, “It’ll never be over because people are stupid.”

#94 Reximus on 04.09.21 at 5:28 pm

“If you are a young Canadian nurse, doctor, engineer or software developer, you are shut out of the housing market, even if you can muster $1,000,000.”

There’s a lot of places with nice properties for far less than that…you dont have to live in the ‘saug to have a nice life:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23030530/281-douglas-street-stratford

#95 Funny thing is on 04.09.21 at 5:30 pm

#63 Dan in Nanaimo

I live in Nanaimo and feel the exact same way. What could possibly go wrong.

#96 Faron on 04.09.21 at 5:30 pm

#65 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm
#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm

Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their Realtor® licence last month.

According to CREA, there are only 135k total. 303k newly added would… dilute the pool.

#81 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 4:34 pm

Purchased Oct 2020: $600,000
New Listing: $849,000

If I didn’t love our new home and had any desire to be on the rental market again, it would be tempting to try to do the same with our mouldy bung(alow).

#97 Penny Henny on 04.09.21 at 5:30 pm

#65 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 2:59 pm
#48 Stone on 04.09.21 at 2:12 pm

Can’t find the link now however 303,000 people got their realtor licence last month.

——–

Doubtful. Prove it.

//////////////

All is real in make believe land.

#98 Sam on 04.09.21 at 5:30 pm

This stress test is nothing more than a Bull Sh***. If you go to the bank directly they will use a stress test and refuse your mortgage but if you go to a mortgage broker, pay him 1 or 2 % commission, the same bank will approve your mortgage and plus give commission to the mortgage broker too. This is the reason people are buying Millions of $$$ properties without sufficient incomes and prices are going up like a skyrocket. There are some loopholes in the banking and mortgage system. I don’t know what the end will be but I know it will be bad.

#99 Pete on 04.09.21 at 5:32 pm

TurnerNation

Really enjoy your thoughts and insights. What are your thoughts on the supply chain issues. It’s happening in almost every sector. Buddy I know works in food industry and believes it is deliberate. What I find odd is the auto sector going down for lack of parts which almost never happens. Is it really WW3 with China. Scary post about army and Sunnybrook.

#100 DON on 04.09.21 at 5:41 pm

#83 Sail Away on 04.09.21 at 4:54 pm
#77 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm
#50 Soggyshorts
#62 Sailaway

No one said the plumber gets $90 per hour. It’s 1.5 times the $50 rate the rest goes to the union for benefits etc. So at 50 per hour 40 hour week is 2k or just under $1400 after tax. If the plumber works 8 hours Saturday that’s $400 extra or $1650 total after tax. Now most guys will not want to work an extra day for $250. But for $400 cash they all jump at it.

The landscaper takes on a cash job for 50k. He has expenses, stone, grass, dirt etc etc. So let’s say the raw material is 15k. Now when he accepts the cash he can’t really deduct the 15k in material and not have any sales. So now a landscaper might do 500k in work of which 150k is raw materials. He then bills the plumbing company 200k of which 150k is deducted and 50k goes on salary. Rinse repeat etc etc.

Go ask anyone that does landscaping and I bet you won’t find one not working for cash.

I’m not making this up. It’s a fact, everyone does it.

———

Extremely rare, if at all. I project manage work with landscaping components all the time.

Who keeps $50k cash on hand for landscaping other than Don Corleone?

First, nobody doing projects of that size pays cash. The work is done under contract, complete with trackable invoices, taxes, holdbacks and project numbers, with pay request certification by qualified personnel. Also regulated by builders lien and standard warranty/maintenance period.

Second, the bookkeepers of all involved firms would need to be fully complicit in the fraud. Bookkeepers are usually paid employees, not owners. What incentive would they have to commit federal fraud?

Any union workers working under the table for cash are risking their livelihood. Not enough incentive.

*************

Yes big landscaping and trade jobs done by contract but the side jobs done for cash or barter. Framing up a house…doing electrical…plumbing….siding…mill rights etc.

It is a way of life on the island.

#101 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 5:49 pm

#89 YVR 60% Crash on 04.09.21 at 5:12 pm
#34 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 1:20 pm

Scheduled for my 1st AstraZeneca shot this afternoon. Roll up the sleeve to win. WooHoo!

——————————-

Let hope that you’re not one of those 10 customers received expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 shots at one of its pharmacies in Burnaby.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/09/covid-19-astrazeneca-expired-burnaby/
********
True, I’d never do anything that important in Burnaby.

#102 fishman on 04.09.21 at 5:50 pm

Ponzias, #67 You remind me of myself on a halibut boat at the tail end of Vietnam. Couple years at university had taught me to badmouth the Yanks. My skipper was a Canadian paratrooper & had been dropped behind enemy lines a few times. Boy did he scare me when he straightened me out. He loved the Yanks. They replenished supplies to the guys on or in his case behind the front or died trying. General George C. Marshall is the second greatest general in America after Washington. Impeccable integrity. What exactly did your mother propose other than the Marshall plan? The General Stalin plan? I know this is a financial blog but we can’t let nitwits get away with impugning the honour of such a great man. Joseph McCarthy slandered Marshall & that was what finally brought him down. “Have you no shame?” Are you in the same league as Senator McCarthy?

#103 Reximus on 04.09.21 at 5:52 pm

oh my god property prices are record high!!! house crash / armageddon is just around the corner!!! (as it always is on here).

The avg outstanding mtge balance in gta is 300k.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/average-new-mortgage-tops-300000-for-first-time-as-consumer-debt-in-canada-hits-2-trillion

#104 Ustabe on 04.09.21 at 6:01 pm

#90 Rainman on 04.09.21 at 5:21 pm

The market always sorts it self out. Tinkering with it in the past has just added unintended consequences, so best to just leave it alone. It will do what it needs to do and be correct in the end.

Funny, isn’t it? All these sturdy conservative men and women on here crying out for more government intervention, do this, do that.

All that needs done is put CMHC out to pasture. Good luck finding a CPC leader who will both explain that to the population and work towards implementing it.

Nattering nabobs of negativity dominant right now tho…

#105 earthboundmisfit on 04.09.21 at 6:02 pm

That’s a beautiful dog, but, like most spaniels, unpredictable temperament, ear mites and eye boogers.

#106 Dr V on 04.09.21 at 6:03 pm

75 & 81 Shirl – how do we know the gains will be tax free?

There are basically 3 types of RE transactions

1) PR exemption – tax free
2) Investment properties (typically rentals) cap gain
3) Flipping (with or without renos) is income

The mechanisms and guidelines for each one exist
under current CRA rules. They just have to enforce
them.

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 6:05 pm

#72 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.09.21 at 3:49 pm
@#4 Pondering Ponzerelli

“It’s actually surprisingly slow in my hood in the Lower Mainland.
Nary a for sale sign.
Maybe the calm before the storm.”
==============================
Not all realtors put up signs anymore. Best to check on rew.ca what’s listed in your neighborhood.
If you target the overseas market a sign is not needed as the buyer’s agent sees the listing or gets a call from another realtor friend who is listing.
A sign is actually detrimental as it brings in useless showings from the neighborhood with no intention to buy.
Nobody in the Vancouver price range who is serious about buying drives around anymore to look at for sale signs ,especially now during COVID. It all moved online.
—————–
Well, that’s your opinion.
I humbly disagree.
But if you have statistics to prove your point, I may reconsider and tell my friend who’s a realtor to stop being so stupid and waste money and put up signs that everyone is ignoring.
Just put it online, and sit back and watch the offers flow in.
A good Realtor uses all means at his disposal, because there’s lots of competition.

#108 Leftover on 04.09.21 at 6:06 pm

#73 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 3:50 pm

If we raised the GST 3% and used the net new amount to pay back the covid debt, how long would it take?

————————————

About 16 years.
GST @ 5% grosses about $40 billion, at 8% more like $65 billion, so a $25 billion increase annually. Divide that into $400 billion and presto, paid off in 16 years.

#109 SoggyShorts on 04.09.21 at 6:09 pm

#77 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm
#50 Soggyshorts
#62 Sailaway

No one said the plumber gets $90 per hour. It’s 1.5 times the $50 rate the rest goes to the union for benefits etc. So at 50 per hour 40 hour week is 2k or just under $1400 after tax. If the plumber works 8 hours Saturday that’s $400 extra or $1650 total after tax. Now most guys will not want to work an extra day for $250. But for $400 cash they all jump at it.

****************
Wait, now I’m more confused.
If they make $50/h then overtime is $75, right?
8hx75=$600

You’re telling me that after taxes $600 becomes $250?
This tax calculator says he’s in the 36% marginal tax rate, so $600 should be $384 Take-home, and increases his RRSP contribution room, and he isn’t commiting a crime.
https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/tool/tax-calculator/
————————————–
————————————–
————————————–
#77 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 4:11 pm
#50 Soggyshorts
#62 Sailaway

The landscaper takes on a cash job for 50k. He has expenses, stone, grass, dirt etc etc. So let’s say the raw material is 15k. Now when he accepts the cash he can’t really deduct the 15k in material and not have any sales. So now a landscaper might do 500k in work of which 150k is raw materials. He then bills the plumbing company 200k of which 150k is deducted and 50k goes on salary.It’s a fact, everyone does it.

**************************
This sounds like fantasy. So many people involved so much risk and yet “everyone does it” but no one gets caught?

Also, you’re still skipping over the huge discount needed. If I want $50,000 of landscaping done around my building I sure as hell want to write that off as an expense rather than withdraw 5 stacks from my personal after tax bank account to pay you. Like a 40-50% price cut.

Small scale residential? Sure, but with the numbers you’re talking, I don’t think so.

#110 Winterpeg on 04.09.21 at 6:13 pm

Why don’t the banks just insist any mortgage has to be insured by CMHC?
What is the relationship/interplay between the banks and CMHC?
And what is the relationship/interplay between the CMHC and the government?
What is the interplay of all these roles and powers?

#111 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 6:15 pm

#17 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 12:03 pm
If they restrict the mortgages to the city your home is currently in, and you can only buy in that city, then people from the city won’t be able to sell their pricey homes and up the price on lower priced homes outside their city.
Example: you live in Toronto, so you cannot buy in Renfrew, only Toronto.

———————————-

I don’t think you thought that through. What if you have to move for work? Or want to retire some place less busy?

#112 You know val on 04.09.21 at 6:24 pm

Simon Says suck Simon Says blow ask Benny Tal he’s part of the script. Bababa baby you ain’t seen nothing yet….pfft.

#113 Sunny Daze on 04.09.21 at 6:26 pm

Suck and blow.

They are all in and Canadians are calling their bluff.

They have nothing.

#114 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 6:34 pm

#73 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 3:50 pm

“If we raised the GST 3% and used the net new amount to pay back the covid debt, how long would it take?”

Forever.

But the downside to such a knee-jerk reaction will be reduced economic activity so tax revenue probably won’t go up.

Besides they already raised the GST a lot more than that and called it a carbon tax.

#115 Tarot Card on 04.09.21 at 6:37 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
I have great respect for all your predictions and hindsight. Thank you!

I agree housing is crazy right now. And the purpose of this blog when you started was to warn people about housing bubbles. I believe Your tone has changed over the years which i believe is more aligned….don’t have all your money in one asset. I agree this is important.

However, People still believe if I pay rent might as well own a home and pay a mortgage. I know and read all your calculations, but people still keep it simple mortgage and taxes if cheaper than rent, why not own some dirt.

How this will end?
one thing for sure everyone will be surprised!
I don’t think there will be any melt down, for sure a cooling and clearer heads.
Maybe as interest rates begin the long climb upwards, in five years we may see some declines? But I think people will just hang on and not sell. How many sold when mortgages went to 12 to 15 percent? Most hung on.

Here’s a house that defies all logic, ocean front, started 1.4 million reduced yes that’s not a typo, 1.3 million and reduced again to 1.2 million. On the market just over two weeks. If you cannot sell in the hottest market then must be something wrong with the house. Still like you pointed out a Garage in Vancouver sold over a million?
The last three house within a few blocks all on the ocean all sold over a million and all over asking.

Have a great weekend.
Respectfully submitted.

#116 TurnerNation on 04.09.21 at 6:45 pm

On the Economic Shutdowns. Learning from history.

— Same old same old in Ontariowe – this was 3 (three) years ago. 2018.

Surgeries postponed due to severe flu cases overwhelming Toronto ICU
BY AMANDA FERGUSONPOSTED FEB 13, 2018 5:23 PM
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/02/13/toronto-hospital-flu/

….Today the ‘killing is softly method as ON Cancels all surgeries. Why isn’t this local Anesthesiologist speaking of the ’emergency’?

https://twitter.com/mdlangdon1/status/1380547635573063680
Langdon MD @mdlangdon1 – Anesthesia by day ((& often by night)) MD•MSc•BEd
Had a patient recently rescheduled for colonoscopy that was cancelled last April. Symptoms suggestive of colon cancer. It was positive. A year delay in cancer therapy is huge! These procedures and other surgeries are again now being sidelined. Where is the logic in this?

— This doc has the flatline. Of admissions.

https://twitter.com/JeanmarcBenoit/status/1380605981705568260
Jean Marc Benoit MD @JeanmarcBenoit
Average age in Ontario ICUs. From CCSO Daily Reports. New datapoint, added by CCSO today. #opendataontario
————-

….
ZERO cases (if that matters) and this. What is he waiting for, a UBI?

.Not the time to ease COVID-19 restrictions, says Yukon’s top doctor (cbc.ca)

———-
Life in North Korea. Why not just say Shelter in Place until the UBI is approved?

“““It is not OK to have friends and family over right now. It is not OK to go on a weekend getaway. That is not essential — nor is your ski trip just because you have a pass. It is not OK to have a wedding, a birthday. All of these need to be postponed for now,” she said.”
— PROVINCIAL HEALTH OFFICER DR. BONNIE HENRY” [BC]

#117 Dr V on 04.09.21 at 6:48 pm

110 Nonplused – you said that much more nicely than I would have. in the spirit of peaceful blog I bit my blog tongue.

#118 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 6:54 pm

#110 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 6:15 pm
#17 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 12:03 pm
If they restrict the mortgages to the city your home is currently in, and you can only buy in that city, then people from the city won’t be able to sell their pricey homes and up the price on lower priced homes outside their city.
Example: you live in Toronto, so you cannot buy in Renfrew, only Toronto.

———————————-

I don’t think you thought that through. What if you have to move for work? Or want to retire some place less busy?
*************
I was just coming up with another lame brained idea like the other lame brained ideas the blog.dogs are posting on how to cool the market.

Wouldn’t it be fun though, to watch the lawmakers try to get that legislation through the house?

#119 Barb on 04.09.21 at 6:55 pm

The Libs had Mark Carney address them today.
Should’ve hired Garth Turner so they could actually learn something.

#120 What is Even Happening? on 04.09.21 at 6:55 pm

#31 Dogman01 on 04.09.21 at 1:05 pm

Hierarchy of Priorities for Canadian Political Parties:

Serve their Masters: Ensure the established elite of Canada are free to harness Canada as their exclusive means to continue to extract wealth, power and privilege. (The Farmers)

Serve the oligopoly : ensure the sectors of Canada , banks, Telco’s and resource extraction maintain their moat in a captured market.

Serve Both above: ensure the Canadian population remains docile ill-informed and compliant.

Lastly: Get re-elected: beat the Blue Tie or Red Tie team so you get to reward your friends.

You are living in Mouseland: https://www.canadashistory.ca/explore/politics-law/tommy-douglas-takes-mouseland

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

Thanks for your summary and the link to Tommy Douglas’ story Mouseland. Yup, we in Canada are living in Mouseland it seems.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 6:59 pm

@#92 Editrix
” “It’ll never be over because people are stupid.”

+++

Kudos to you daughter seeing and then telling the truth.
A shame our Prime Minister cant do the same.

#122 WTF on 04.09.21 at 6:59 pm

#73 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 3:50 pm

If we raised the GST 3% and used the net new amount to pay back the covid debt, how long would it take?

————————————

About 16 years.
GST @ 5% grosses about $40 billion, at 8% more like $65 billion, so a $25 billion increase annually. Divide that into $400 billion and presto, paid off in 16 years.

—————————————————————

Assuming the Politicians didn’t blow it on their latest half baked pet project . Nope, Every big ticket spend proposal should be vetted by the Auditor General. Politicians at every level have proven they simply cannot be trusted with other peoples (our) money. This latest fiasco from PM Brainiac and his loyal minions of buying votes will saddle us for decades.

#123 Jim on 04.09.21 at 7:05 pm

Turnernation I second what #98 Pete said,
Very concerned about that leaked document said about Q3.
Any more thoughts that you have.

#124 espressobob on 04.09.21 at 7:08 pm

The love of an animal is the greatest gift our pathetic race will ever know. It connects us to nature.

For others that see their pets colours not matching the furniture, well what can be said?

Houston, we have a problem…

#125 the Jaguar on 04.09.21 at 7:20 pm

@#101 fishman on 04.09.21 at 5:50 pm+++

This is why I read this blog. In addition to good advice and interesting observations from Mr. Turner, the occassional gem is posted by peeps like Fishman. I confess I know nothing about General George C. Marshall, but now I’m intrigued and will do a little research. I know it will be interesting given the source.

Speaking of distractions from this whole hand wringing, nail biting housing debacle, I think I’ve got the perfect prescription for it all. Nomadland. The soon to be Oscar winner for best film, best actress, best cinematography and what not. It’s all about a woman who sells her house and lives in a van and drives around ‘Murica’. “Leaving all that she has known behind, Fern loads up her beat-up old van and hits the road, crisscrossing America looking for seasonal work at every stop. She’s not homeless, just unencumbered, solo but not solitary. “I’m not homeless,” she says. I’m just houseless.”

Perfect weekend viewing the those who can’t stop handwring about home ownership. Here is a little of what the author of the book the movie is based on has to say:
“We want this sense of boundless opportunity, the sense that down the road is something better. But it doesn’t play out: look where it’s got us, look where the planet is now. We think we can keep growing indefinitely. But we’re on a rock with finite resources, with stagnant wages and rising housing costs, with growing inequality.”

Sounds more like non fiction than fiction to me. Mercy.
Trailer below….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sxCFZ8_d84

#126 Garth's Son Drake on 04.09.21 at 7:27 pm

Will this affect credit unions? You know the current walk around from avoiding the stress test?

What about people already in and financed? Renewals affected?

Doubt it, which means the new entrants are being given greater entry barriers.

If they want to stop speculation they can do so by limiting the amount of home to one per family.

#127 IsleOfVanMan on 04.09.21 at 7:29 pm

#77 I’m Stupid
‘No one said the plumber gets $90 per hour. It’s 1.5 times the $50 rate the rest goes to the union for benefits etc. So at 50 per hour 40 hour week is 2k or just under $1400 after tax. If the plumber works 8 hours Saturday that’s $400 extra or $1650 total after tax. Now most guys will not want to work an extra day for $250. But for $400 cash they all jump at it. ‘

—–

Attn ‘I’m Stupid’ – your math is wrong… 8 hours on a saturday at 1.5x pay 75$ an hour is 600$ gross… not the 400$ you say. So the worker nets 375$ with your 37.5% tax rate vs netting 280$ per day at regular time with your 30% tax rate. In my trade there’s 8.75$ an hour that goes non taxed into rrsp’s which boosts that after tax OT amount as well. I’ll take that saturday shift whenever it comes up.

#128 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 7:31 pm

99 Don

No one is talking about commercial customers. You missed my original comment where I said homeowners. I’m talking about all the Stamped concrete, pool, interlock, grass etc etc.

As far as cash goes… 50k cash is not a big deal.

Now let’s talk about how developers get a few million tax free every few years.

I’m building 250 houses… construction costs are 100 million… I sign contracts with all my trades… my kid or cousin or whoever buys an estate property. I get all my trades to build the home and bill everything to the individual numbered company that I set up for the specific project of the 250 houses. My wife friend cousin etc lives there for a year or two and sells it.

#129 45north on 04.09.21 at 7:34 pm

Concerned Citizen

posted the link to Steve Paikin interviewing Adam Vaughan, MP of Spadina-Fort York

https://www.tvo.org/video/what-should-the-government-do-about-housing

Adam Vaughan shows his knowledge and experience. I especially agree with his view that the city councils of Toronto and Ottawa should have the authority to direct development and infrastructure. Just for a moment, he looked apprehensive. The moment when he talked about “surges in the housing market that scare people in the financial sector”.

Concerned Citizen
That is truly terrifying, but it’s where policymakers are at right now. Any time an asset declines in price, they view it as a sign of market failure. Vaughan says he wants to be bring the market into balance. Well, I’ve got news for him. There are only two ways to do that – for wages to increase rapidly and real estate prices stay where they are, or for real estate prices to plunge. And I’m here to tell you, wages aren’t going to be increasing rapidly. The degree of economic illiteracy from our policymakers is truly stunning, and it explains a great deal.

We have fundamentalists in charge of economic policy, to the approaching ruin of much of society. And that’s not hyperbole. They’re totally blind to the negative consequences of what they’re doing.

I think they are. In the case of Adam Vaughan, he’s doing what he’s always been doing – talking municipal, provincial and federal politics. He’s not in charge of revenue, he doesn’t see the deficit.

#130 45north on 04.09.21 at 7:40 pm

Former Navy Chief

#1 TurnerNation
“Military deployed. This is about public health yes? How do guys with guns “help fight covid?”

In all your rambling “wisdom”, haven’t you heard of Aid to Civil Power? That’s when the Military is deployed to assist in dealing with a national emergency. Look up the Red River Floods, numerous instances of forest fires, etc.
If you look closely, you will not find any guns with deployed units, except perhaps for the odd Military Police officer.
I normally just read past your interminable alarmist comments, but this one struck a note.

yep – interminable alarmist

#131 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 7:45 pm

#100 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 5:49 pm
#89 YVR 60% Crash on 04.09.21 at 5:12 pm
#34 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 1:20 pm

Scheduled for my 1st AstraZeneca shot this afternoon. Roll up the sleeve to win. WooHoo!

——————————-

Let hope that you’re not one of those 10 customers received expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 shots at one of its pharmacies in Burnaby.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/09/covid-19-astrazeneca-expired-burnaby/
********
True, I’d never do anything that important in Burnaby.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Whaaaat??? Don, you winter in Mexico!!!

#132 espressobob on 04.09.21 at 7:50 pm

I waited in a lineup yesterday by the old skydome building for my turn for a shot of vaccine. No biggy. A practically non event other than my left deltoid today a bit sore.

Have to admit while standing there a moment of clarity hit me over the head as to how serious this pandemic (situation) is.

Roll up your sleeve at the earliest opportunity.

Let’s protect each other!

#133 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 7:51 pm

#117 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 6:54 pm
#110 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 6:15 pm
#17 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 12:03 pm
If they restrict the mortgages to the city your home is currently in, and you can only buy in that city, then people from the city won’t be able to sell their pricey homes and up the price on lower priced homes outside their city.
Example: you live in Toronto, so you cannot buy in Renfrew, only Toronto.

———————————-

I don’t think you thought that through. What if you have to move for work? Or want to retire some place less busy?
*************
I was just coming up with another lame brained idea like the other lame brained ideas the blog.dogs are posting on how to cool the market.

Wouldn’t it be fun though, to watch the lawmakers try to get that legislation through the house?

———————————————

The problem with text is that non-verbal cues indicating sarcasm are absent. That is why some people use sarc/off at the end to make sure everyone understands it wasn’t serious. It is a serious mistake to assume people understand words.

#134 wallflower on 04.09.21 at 7:54 pm

Andy is a dish.
lOVE LUV Love the doogies.

#135 Stone on 04.09.21 at 7:58 pm

40 year mortgages coming to the U.S. of A?

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/cfpb-proposal-no-evictions-until-2022/

Uppa? Uppa? Uppa?

#136 Tbone on 04.09.21 at 8:00 pm

I get a shot of Pfizer on Monday
And my second shot is already scheduled for august 2

#137 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 8:03 pm

#130 Shirl Clarts on 04.09.21 at 7:45 pm
#100 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 5:49 pm
#89 YVR 60% Crash on 04.09.21 at 5:12 pm
#34 Don Guillermo on 04.09.21 at 1:20 pm

Scheduled for my 1st AstraZeneca shot this afternoon. Roll up the sleeve to win. WooHoo!

——————————-

Let hope that you’re not one of those 10 customers received expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 shots at one of its pharmacies in Burnaby.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/09/covid-19-astrazeneca-expired-burnaby/
********
True, I’d never do anything that important in Burnaby.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Whaaaat??? Don, you winter in Mexico!!
*****************************************
Es verdad, gracias México por mi vacuna covid!!

It was a wonderful well organized experience.

#138 Doug t on 04.09.21 at 8:04 pm

When CF steps to the podium and unleashes her manifesto it will be the ‘straw that breaks the camels back’ for this country

#139 I’m stupid on 04.09.21 at 8:13 pm

IsleOfVanMan

I understand that… you would never be paid time and a half… you’ll work 8 hours on Saturday and have your hours banked. So if you’re sick or take a day off or any other time you work less than 40 hours you’ll get topped up to 40. To prove my point look at what the commercial plumbers did during their Cba negotiations.

A little reference… commercial plumbers work 36 hours a week. 4 days 9 hours Fridays off. The contractors wanted them to work 5 days. Well 93% rejected the contract. Guess what they still work 4 days. So how do you get a guy that makes 90k a year to work extra?

Cash is king.

I’m not a plumber I do HVAC. 20 years plus and it’s the exact same thing. I work 5 hours a day as a subcontractor, I’m home at 1:30 every day for a nap. I could work more but I’m not interested. What most don’t understand is that doing a physically demanding job as you age money means less and less.

Most guys get licensed by 25ish. So by the time a kid finishes university a trade guy is pulling 120-150k a year. By the time he’s 40 he’s broken and slowing down… so you tell me how to get a 50 year old tradesmen contemplating retirement to work extra?

#140 OttawaRetired on 04.09.21 at 8:15 pm

#1 TurnerNation — The camp is built @ Sunnybrook hospital. Look it is painted drab Army green.
*** A guard tower made of scaffolding runs its length.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyaQXtaXMAQVvgC?format=jpg&name=900×900
______________________________
Obviously you never spent a day in military.
Anyways, those aren’t guard towers. It’s scaffolding used to act as conduit in order to keep power wires, HVAC, comms/network wiring off the ground, where it would be damage from heavy traffic.

#141 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 8:21 pm

Anyone watching George Floyd trial?

Dr. Baker baked the entire 14 lawyer prosecution team today by being precise, eloquent, unbiased and sticking to his autopsy results. Floyd died of heart issues, no bruises on his back or neck. Dr. Baker even noted that he pealed the skin off Floyd’s back to check muscle tissue for any bruising – nothing. He did not watch video prior to autopsy to not form any opinions.

Chauvin at 140lbs is tiny. 3 cops couldn’t handle this resisting individual who was under arrest. Chauvin will be found innocent and America will burn.

#142 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 8:26 pm

This comment is to Garth’s post today.

I still contend that the main bubbles in the Canadian housing market are limited to the YYZ and YVR service areas, although Brian’s charts and other evidence indicates it is spreading nation-wide.

But what if the problem is “recency bias”? What if because the central banks have been able to control inflation for a long time, excepting the 70’s and 80’s, we have come to be too comfortable with the idea they always will even in the face of unprecedented government borrowing and spending? What if this time they can’t?

As an alternative though experiment, let’s imagine a future where inflation is going to 10% a year (as may already be the case) and the Fed won’t step in to stop it until they have to. Could we see a 10% Fed funds rate in the future? Sure. It has happened before. Not that long ago, really. But it happens after the inflation.

In this hypothetical future, anyone buying physical assets, no matter what they pay, using extreme leverage at near zero rates, are the winners. Just lock those rates in as long as you can, fools. Your debt will be inflated away but not if you are exposed to rising interest rates.

In a normal situation, government deficits aren’t hugely inflationary because they sell the debt to various institutions or retirement savers that have cash. But there is not enough cash on the sidelines to fund these deficits, so the central banks are buying it. When a central bank buys government debt, that is money printing. The government prints up a bond, and the central bank prints up money to buy it. Well, central bank’s balance sheets are exploding! The chart is literally going straight up! Way beyond anything they had to do before to maintain monetary policy. And they can’t “unprint” the money without selling the bonds, but there are no buyers.

So what does a savvy person who expects these huge deficits to lead to inflation do? They buy physical assets. And use maximum leverage. But that is probably only 1 or 2, maybe 5, out of 100 people that can see this coming. Unfortunately they start a trend. Next thing you know the other 95 people copy them not because they understand what is happening but because it seems to work. Monkey see, monkey do.

Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. But I think the new standard for government deficits cannot help but be very inflationary. I can see a potential future where the price of everything doubles in the next 10 years. If that happens these FOMO people won’t seem so stupid after all. Even if they are just copycat monkeys.

#143 Do we have all the facts on 04.09.21 at 8:35 pm

When homeowners decide of “move on up” they generally have more than 20% of the purchase price of their new digs for a downpayment. This means that a majority of purchasers of high end homes do not require insurance from CMHC, Genworth or Canada Guaranty.

The change in stress tests hint that the price of many of the homes being purchased with 20% down or more may exceed their intrinsic value by 20% or more. This possibility is reinforced by the fact that there is no interest in securitizing non-insured mortgages in Canada.
Investors realize that the risk of default increases with the looming possibility of a substantial price correction in home prices. Why else do you think Government of Canada insurance is required to support MBS and Canada mortgage bonds.

Financial institutions generally don’t worry about mortgage defaults when the first mortgages they hold are less than 80% of the original purchase price. The proposed tightening of lending conditions decreases the possibility that a change economic conditions could result in an increase in defaults.

Read between the lines folks the Federal government knows that economic conditions are about to change
and that these changes will have an impact on the housing market across Canada.

Warnings aren’t always announced with neon lights.

The other shoe (housing prices) will be dropping soon

#144 Nonplused on 04.09.21 at 8:37 pm

#140 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 8:21 pm
Anyone watching George Floyd trial?

Dr. Baker baked the entire 14 lawyer prosecution team today by being precise, eloquent, unbiased and sticking to his autopsy results. Floyd died of heart issues, no bruises on his back or neck. Dr. Baker even noted that he pealed the skin off Floyd’s back to check muscle tissue for any bruising – nothing. He did not watch video prior to autopsy to not form any opinions.

Chauvin at 140lbs is tiny. 3 cops couldn’t handle this resisting individual who was under arrest. Chauvin will be found innocent and America will burn.

—————————————–

The legal system in North America is no longer relevant once the media has passed judgement (SNC Lavalin anyone?). Given the preponderance of evidence presented so far, there is no “beyond reasonable doubt” to be found in this case, but we shall see. And the defense hasn’t even made their case yet.

But it doesn’t matter, the media found Chauvin guilty a long time ago and profited hugely after by covering the riots. The best case scenario for CNN is a “not guilty” verdict at this point because then they will have a whole bunch more riots to cover. This is how they manufacture the news. There is a reason Trump called them “fake news”. This whole thing should have been a local story but instead Portland was on fire.

#145 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.09.21 at 8:42 pm

STAY AT HOME IN THE GTA THIS WEEKEND, ALL YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

We don’t need you inbred southern hillbillies compromising our limited ICU capacity.

Cottage season 2022 should be okay. Wait for it.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#146 Ustabe on 04.09.21 at 8:49 pm

@#140 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 8:21 pm

Your narrative is counter to anything else I can currently find.

Snip: “Dr. Andrew Baker, the Hennepin County chief medical examiner who performed Floyd’s autopsy, said he still classifies Floyd’s death as a homicide, and that his opinion remains unchanged.” End Snip. 7 hours ago, CNN

Snip: “Forensic pathologist Dr. Lindsey Thomas, who has worked as a medical examiner herself, including in the Hennepin County Medical Examiner’s Office, and who was part of Baker’s training, agreed with Baker’s finding in the cause of death, adding she believed the “primary mechanism of death is asphyxia or low oxygen.”

Because of the restraint and his position, she said, Floyd was “unable to get enough oxygen in” to support his body’s functions.

Thomas explained the technical wording of the medical examiner’s finding in the cause of death, saying, “What it means to me is that the activities of the law enforcement officers resulted in Mr. Floyd’s death. And that specifically those activities were the subdual, the restraint and the neck compression.”

“There’s no evidence,” she later added, “to suggest he would have died that night except for the interactions with law enforcement.” End Snip. As above.

Why do you feel a need to carry water for the US police on a Canadian financial blog anyway?

#147 Trojan House on 04.09.21 at 9:15 pm

#145 Ustabe on 04.09.21 at 8:49 pm

You have presented only one side of the story. You didn’t mention anything said under cross examination or other testimony of other people during the day today. And don’t forget, the state’s expert witness in police use of force and restraints was actually better for the defence in his testimony!

#148 Ballingsford on 04.09.21 at 9:18 pm

#132 Nonplused

The problem with text is that non-verbal cues indicating sarcasm are absent. That is why some people use sarc/off at the end to make sure everyone understands it wasn’t serious. It is a serious mistake to assume people understand words.
******
Thank you for that tip, I didn’t know that. What does sarc/off mean? Sarcasm/end?

#149 IsleOfVanMan on 04.09.21 at 9:23 pm

#138 I’m Stupid –
well whaddya know I do HVAC too. Sounds like a slightly different work setup since I’m doing commercial service work (in Van metro). I’m somewhat of a newbie … only 11 years into it but at age 47. Where I work, 40 hours is expected although i’m still a keener and typically work a bit more.

#150 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 9:34 pm

#140 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 8:21 pm
Anyone watching George Floyd trial?

Dr. Baker baked the entire 14 lawyer prosecution team today by being precise, eloquent, unbiased and sticking to his autopsy results. Floyd died of heart issues, no bruises on his back or neck. Dr. Baker even noted that he pealed the skin off Floyd’s back to check muscle tissue for any bruising – nothing. He did not watch video prior to autopsy to not form any opinions.

Chauvin at 140lbs is tiny. 3 cops couldn’t handle this resisting individual who was under arrest. Chauvin will be found innocent and America will burn.
————–
I have to answer to this incorrect statement, if I may, Garth.
I have taped and watched the last 2 days of the trial.
I’ve been impressed with the expert witnesses that the prosecution has brought forward.
There were a pulmonary (breathing) expert, a forensic pathologist and the coroner.
All have impeccable credentials in their field, and the pulmonary expert is an international renowned expert, who even waved his usual expensive fee.
All three stated that George Floud died from lack of oxygen caused by the defendant kneeing on his throat.
The coroner was blunt, and called it a murder.

#151 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:05 pm

#145 Ustabe

Non of what Thomas said matters. I suggest you watch Dr. Baker testimony – guy was incredibly flawless and is the most important witness in this case. He did the autopsy that persecution doesn’t like. Dr. Thomas is not Dr. Baker. Chief Medical Examiner completely CRUSHED the prosecution today. CRUSHED!

#143 Nonplused

The political pressure on this case is crazy. The federal grand jury situation happening in the background is crazy. Justice indeed does not matter in this case at all. They want to sacrifice Chauvin – that is obvious.

14 lawyers on the prosecution team from all over the US!
vs.
Nelson and 1 assistant. But the thing is Nelson is CRUSHING this entire prosecution team.

Indeed, the media is still spinning it toward outrage when the NOT GUILTY comes down, which it will. There is no way anything else comes down after Dr. Baker today.

#152 Job#1 on 04.09.21 at 10:05 pm

#115 Turner Nation

I was overwhelmed reading the breast cancer account in one of the links you posted.
The following came immediately to mind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D97OxHZzBeQ

#153 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:13 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus

None of those other HIRED prosecution experts matter, not even the sweet Irish Dr. Tobin.

Dr. Baker is the Chief Medical Examiner and today he DESTROYED the Prosecution experts – all of them. He didn’t watch the video before the autopsy to ensure it didn’t cloud his examination. He pealed the skin off Floyd’s back to examine pressure, bruises.

Dr. Baker CLEARL states there was no blockage to the windpipe. The examined the heart well and declared this oversized heart to be weak, add stress, adrenaline, meth, fentanyl – and you got it. Dr. Baker clearly says – HEART, HEART, HEART! No issues breathing. This is the first hands that did the autopsy. He was incredibly well spoken, intelligent, clear, precise – there is NO WAY you dismiss Dr. Baker over all the hired experts who either got paid or wanted 15 minutes of fame.

Dr. Baker BAKED the prosecution. Prosecution spent so little time with the Chief Medical Examiner – Nelson could have talked chocolate chip cookie recipes after prosecution was done with Dr. Baker. Prosecutors were crushed by Dr. Baker.

What is key here is that Dr. Baker carried himself with incredible integrity and precision standing behind his work and how he carries himself. That came across loud and clear today. The pressure on him must be immense, but he will not compromise his integrity. Hence the outside experts prosecution called in.

#154 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:20 pm

Floyd had 2 chances to de-escalate this with the CUP FOODS clerks before they called the caps.

Floyd had a chance to de-escalate with arriving Cops.

Floyd had a chance to de-escalate while being put into the cruiser by the by-stander.

Floyd then went full-resisting-arrest mode. One of prosecution experts said that Chauvin would have been fully correct to taze Floyd! They were also fully correct to put Floyd in a more severe hold if they wanted to with legs bent back and attached to waste or handcuffs. Turns on this prone hold was not the most extreme use of force available to the cops after THREE COPS couldn’t get Floyd into the cruiser!

Today a Canadian study made an appearance. 1.1m arrests, 3000 put into prone position. Not a single death. Nelson used it to illustrate that prone position does not induce death. Large sample – further illustrates that it wasn’t the prone position with a 140lb cop where the pressure applied cannot be determined with any sort of precision.

#155 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 10:26 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 9:34 pm

The coroner was blunt, and called it a murder.

————

See how false info spreads Ponzius? You’re spreading it!

Dr. Baker, the Chief Medical Examiner did not call it MURDER! He called it a HOMICIDE!

“Homicide” means the same thing, whether it’s a statement from the medical examiner or in charging papers drafted by a prosecutor — “the death of a human being caused by the actions or omissions of another human being.”

As far as criminal matters are concerned, not all homicides are murders but all murders are (by definition) homicide. Crimes related to homicide might include murder, manslaughter, negligent homicide, reckless homicide, vehicular homicide, or some others.

To twist it even further, there is also such a thing as “justifiable” homicide — such as the death of a person caused by a police officer as authorized by law, or in the use of lethal force by a civilian in a situation of self-defense (depending on the jurisdiction).

#156 Borrowell on 04.09.21 at 10:26 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 04.09.21 at 10:36 am

yada … yada …yada

______________________________________

Speaking of “turgid and thick” … well, you know.

#157 Doctor Know on 04.09.21 at 10:38 pm

#140 MN vs. Chauvin on 04.09.21 at 8:21 pm
Anyone watching George Floyd trial?

Dr. Baker baked the entire 14 lawyer prosecution team today by being precise, eloquent, unbiased and sticking to his autopsy results. Floyd died of heart issues, no bruises on his back or neck. Dr. Baker even noted that he pealed the skin off Floyd’s back to check muscle tissue for any bruising – nothing. He did not watch video prior to autopsy to not form any opinions.

Chauvin at 140lbs is tiny. 3 cops couldn’t handle this resisting individual who was under arrest. Chauvin will be found innocent and America will burn.

______________________________________

Correct you are. Chauvin’s fault was that he was too nice to this floydnut. Had he forced him into the car, he wouldn’t be in this predicament. Watch the video. He had more patience trying to get this floydnut in the car for 15 minutes than I could muster in a lifetime.

All I can remember is floydnut’s whining lies over and over … “I’m not that guy….I’m not that guy….”. Sorry, floydnut … you were that guy!

The whole knee-to-the-neck thing causing any harm has been thoroughly dispelled. No one dies from this; its just uncomfortable …. unless perhaps they are drug riddled with 4* dose of fentanyl in their system. Next time, you might want to lay off the old drugs. It never ends well.

#158 Trojan House on 04.09.21 at 11:25 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.21 at 9:34 pm

“The coroner was blunt, and called it a murder.”

Wrong statement. The coroner called it a homicide which apparently has a different meaning when noted by a coroner than when done by the police. I’m not sure how much of the trial you’ve been watching.

Don’t forget, this is just the prosecution’s side. The defence will present their defence next.

By the way, that’s not to say he didn’t do this but let’s just wait until both sides present their cases and let the jury decide if he is guilty or not.

#159 kommykim on 04.10.21 at 12:28 am

Of course all levels of governments like the housing gasbag. Higher prices lead to higher Realtor earnings boosting income taxes, more property transfer tax, more GST on new builds, etc. Also, people who already own can borrow more on a HELOC and spend that money in the economy which boosts revenues. They really don’t want the party to end. Sure it’ll be a disaster when it all blows up, but hey, that’s another term in office or even another government to deal with…

#160 calgaryPhantom on 04.10.21 at 1:29 am

Brother bought a house is mappleridge,BC.
Bought date November for almost 1million.
Move in date was agreed to be April 30.
Yesterday, his realter called. Similar house a block away was listed for 1.1 mil and sold for 1.4 mil.

So basically my bro is yet to move into his newly built house which has already appreciated in value by 400k. IN JUST 4 mONTHS…. Crazy!

#161 Tim123 on 04.10.21 at 2:24 am

I doubt the feds will do anything to slow down the housing market as it is not in their interest to do it from a political standpoint. It will correct on it’s own in 2022-2023. Much of the real estate has exceeded the ability of the majority of Canadians to buy it so a correction is inevitable.

#162 Frankly Speaking on 04.10.21 at 2:41 am

Ya know… If you wanted to “fix” the housing market you could remove the capital gains exemption from anyone with more than one property. Just say’in.

After all, where is it stated that our tax system must deliver a tax benefit those with the means to buy multiple properties? Why are we providing a tax free “capital gains exemption” to those who amass a small fortune in real estate and then divest themselves of their properties, one by one, while pocketing the profits and ignoring the capital gains reporting.

And please. Anyone who thinks that people are paying taxes on capital gains derived from real estate transactions is kidding themselves.

The CRA is NOT “watching” anything. They are not going after folks who don’t report, never mind claim a capital gains exemption they are not entitled too.

The CRA is watching and checking nothing. The system of reporting capital gains is “voluntary” and nobody is reporting anything. Not a single person has yet to be brought to court, fined or denied their “capital gains exemption” on a sale of personal real estate holdings.

If you think I’m wrong, show me one.

The system is a joke.

Hence the feeding frenzy of flippers, investors, criminals and owners of multiple homes. All these folks are having a banquet, at the expense of those who do not, and very soon will never be able to, own Canadian real estate. That includes your children.

A capital gains exemption should be delivered to only those who own and live in ONE property. Own two or more, and you do not qualify for a capital gains exemption. Not until you sell all other properties, and are left with only one property under your name, can you claim a capital gains exemption on that remaining piece of real estate.

Cottage owners need not apply for a capital gains exemption, sorry.

One home per person, per family. And no, you can’t buy homes in the kids names, or give “gift” them the money to buy homes and have them claim the capital gains.

Money used to buy a home must come from either your TFSA, RRSP, or an established “Canadian Home Buyer’s Account” all of which are established by “Canadians”.

Deposits must be traceable and must come from those who set up the account. No gifts from parents of more than 5% per year. And you can’t sell the house in under 5 years and claim a capital gains exemption.

Canada’s housing problem solved and the bubble popped. Nobody need lose a penny, because nobody needs to sell anything. You can keep your properties. However, when you do sell, you’ll pay the taxes due on any capital gain (if you own more than one property).

If everyone rushes to sell all their properties at the same time, tough luck, that’s the “free market” in action.

It’s about time Canada put the interests of its honest citizens ahead of the drug dealers, money launderers, foreign citizens, speculators, investors, flippers, and capital gains fraudsters who are destroying the Canadian housing market.

Let’s see what CMHC, the BoC and Government do next.

I myself won’t be holding my breath. And I refuse to buy into this inflated real estate market. I will not turn over my hard earned savings to those who are making a “quick buck” at my expense.

And if you buy a house today, that is exactly what you are doing. You seller has added 12% per year to the resale of their home because it’s what realtors, CREA, CMHC, the BoC and our government have created for them, in lieu of an economy.

And now Covid has taken away any escape route the Canadian government “might” have had planned (not that they had one).

Enjoy your real estate market. Hope you all get rich.

But you should realize.. that’s just not possible.

#163 Wrk.dover on 04.10.21 at 6:12 am

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 2:49 pm
@#32 Wrk.Dvr

” I was just in the Atlantic version of Loblaws,”

+++

Good old Sobeys.
The little Stellarton haberdashery that became a goliath.

—————————————

Wife won’t shop Sobeys, too chi chi.

Loblaws here is called ‘The Real Atlantic Canadian Superstore’ We just call it the ‘Stupidstore’, and drop a couple hundred there every few weeks. Doing the hippie thing with three freezers, seasonal purchasing and a big garden and long greenhouse, doesn’t mean totally self-sufficient.

I’m still flaberghasted over the sudden shrinkage of all of the cereal boxes. Right out of Turner Nations wet dreams!

#164 Richard L on 04.10.21 at 7:39 am

It seems that everyone in this country expects the government to solve all problems. If we had a proprly functioning market economy, the banks would have to accept their loan risks rather then push them to the CMHC (taxpayer). If a bank accepted too many risky loans, it would risk failure. This is the correct way to flush bad debt out of the system rather tham relying on government action.

#165 Phylis on 04.10.21 at 7:43 am

#162 Wrk.dover on 04.10.21 at 6:12 am
#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.21 at 2:49 pm
@#32 Wrk.Dvr

” I was just in the Atlantic version of Loblaws,”

+++

Good old Sobeys.
The little Stellarton haberdashery that became a goliath.

—————————————

Wife won’t shop Sobeys, too chi chi.

Loblaws here is called ‘The Real Atlantic Canadian Superstore’ We just call it the ‘Stupidstore’, and drop a couple hundred there every few weeks. Doing the hippie thing with three freezers, seasonal purchasing and a big garden and long greenhouse, doesn’t mean totally self-sufficient.

I’m still flaberghasted over the sudden shrinkage of all of the cereal boxes. Right out of Turner Nations wet dreams!
Xxxxxxxxx
Early mornin’ eh?
NoFrills (loblaws here) report. Choklit milk on sale last year $1. This year $1. Last year 1L, this year 750mL. 33% markup. Almost the same rate increase as the house reported above! Galen is milking it or what?

#166 Dharma Bum on 04.10.21 at 12:49 pm

Canadian governments at all levels have proved their ineptitude at trying to effectively influence the direction of anything: economics, housing, COVID, etc.

It’s time to let the chips fall where they may, and see what happens.

Could it be any worse?

I doubt it.

#167 45north on 04.10.21 at 2:31 pm

Do we have all the facts

The change in stress tests hints that the price of many of the homes being purchased with 20% down or more may exceed their intrinsic value by 20% or more. This possibility is reinforced by the fact that there is no interest in securitizing non-insured mortgages in Canada.

Investors realize that the risk of default increases with the looming possibility of a substantial price correction in home prices. Why else do you think Government of Canada insurance is required to support MBS and Canada mortgage bonds.

Financial institutions generally don’t worry about mortgage defaults when the first mortgages they hold are less than 80% of the original purchase price. The proposed tightening of lending conditions decreases the possibility that a change in economic conditions could result in an increase in defaults.

Read between the lines folks the Federal government knows that economic conditions are about to change
and that these changes will have an impact on the housing market across Canada.

Warnings aren’t always announced with neon lights.
The other shoe (housing prices) will be dropping soon

that got my attention, I read it half-a-dozen times

#168 Jay on 04.10.21 at 6:58 pm

#161
So Right!
Governments also ignore the fact that most houses are being used as multiple dwellings with unregistered basement apartments and how is this type of house eligible for a residential mortgage while it is basically a commercial investment. (Unreported income from these illegal basement apartments is another issue)
Most owners also buy second homes with the LOC they can withdraw off their existing homes and keep doing so building a small tax free realestate investment empire.
We would never experience such craziness if the governments saw this simple fact #161 and not to bury their heads in the sand.

#169 MF on 04.11.21 at 1:36 am

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/04/07/news/ontario-nuclear-plant-risk-fukushima-accident-clean-air-alliance