Getting rich slowly

 

  By Guest Blogger Sinan Terzioglu
.

As equity markets have recovered significantly over the last year and are making new all-time highs, some are taking on more risk to supercharge their returns.  Whether it be by purchasing individual securities like GameStop, utilizing leverage or speculating in crypto currencies and derivatives, risk management has increasingly become looser. The last few months remind me of the early 2000s as the tech bubble was forming.  Free trading apps like Robinhood and WealthSimple have made it all too easy for people to speculate and engage in dangerous behavior.

Leverage
Borrowing to invest is risky.  Some have achieved great results with leveraged investing over the long term but many have not.  Markets inevitably test investors, so if you don’t have a long term mind-set, leveraged investing is definitely not for you.  Those who have succeeded did so by not overleveraging their equity and developing a plan for turbulent times.  Most importantly, they invested in high-quality productive assets where the risk of a permanent loss of capital was low.

We all know about the success of Warren Buffett and his right-hand man Charlie Munger, but few have heard of Rick Guerin, once considered a super investor after achieving market-beating returns in the 1960s and early 1970s.  Guerin had worked with Buffett and Munger on a number of deals.  Buffett supposedly said Guerin was just as smart as he and Munger, but the big difference was simple: Guerin was in a hurry.  Heading into the market downfall of 1973 and 1974, he was levered with loans and got margin calls he couldn’t meet. Thus, he had to sell his Berkshire Hathaway shares to Buffett for under $40 a piece.  Today those Berkshire shares are trading around $400,000.

Reddit Stocks
One of the most traded stocks recently on the WealthSimple app is the theatre chain company AMC.  This security has a large short interest and has been one of the most talked about securities on the online chat forum Reddit.  Most individual investors should not be purchasing a security like this as there’s the real possibility of the company going bankrupt.  AMC owes over $5.7 billion and some of the debt has taken on over the last year bears a double-digit interest rate.  Over the last 12 months AMC has paid more in interest than it earned in operating income in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019.  Of course it is possible the company can turn around but its share price could significantly fall in the meantime as the company works on changing its operating model.

If you are going to invest in highly speculative securities like this at the very least don’t hold them in registered accounts like TFSAs and RRSP since all of the contribution room for these accounts should be handled with care.  Once lost you cannot get the contribution room back.  Speculative securities should only be held in a non-registered account so you have the ability to utilize capital losses to offset future capital gains.

Crypto Currencies
I am often asked about crypto currencies like Bitcoin and why we don’t invest in them.  There is no denying digital currencies will increasingly become a part of our lives but our view is that this is not an investible asset class.  While the price gains have been spectacular no one can value something like Bitcoin because it produces no cash flows and therefore lacks an intrinsic value.  That is not to say the price cannot continue climbing because it certainly can but without the ability to calculate an intrinsic value you are simply speculating on what others will pay.  One of the most important things when striving for long term investing success is to not lose money and since we cannot value crypto currencies there is no margin of safety.

Some argue that if you allocate 5-10% to crypto currencies this provides diversification benefits to a portfolio.  While that may be true for a period of time it still does not reduce the risk of permanently losing capital.  From a technical perspective, I wouldn’t bet against BTC right now but fast forward a year or two and I would not be any more surprised if Bitcoin doubled in price or lost 50%.  So if you have conviction and are ok with the speculative nature of this asset class than good luck to you but at the very least position size responsibly.

Derivatives
Recent news about a US family office blowing up after using swaps to leverage their equity by over 5x has once again highlighted how dangerous derivatives can be. History is full of disasters like this where a recent streak of success led to increasing greed and ridiculous amounts of risk.

Over the last few months there have been many stories of individuals buying call options on GameStop and making boat loads of money.  They have shared their profit screens online and this has led to others to bet big on call options as well.  As GameStop jumped from $20 to over $440 per share this produced enormous gains for those lucky few but as the stock dropped like a rock from its highs to $40 a share there is no doubt many lost significant amounts of money.  This is no different than taking most of your money and spending it on lottery tickets.  The options market is very complex and unless you are willing to put in the time to learn and manage risk most individual investors should stay away from it.

Always Think Long Term
You will greatly increase your probability of achieving investment success by adopting the mind-set of getting rich slowly.  Being patient is key.  What made Buffett and Munger so successful is that they have been patient investors for over 2/3rds of a century.  Earning a reasonable rate of return is important but longevity is significantly more important.  You must ensure you stay in the game and continually evaluate your risk and behavior.  As Buffett once said:

“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results”

By developing and following a long term plan you significantly increase the odds of meeting your financial goals.  Investing intelligently is about controlling your expectations, your risk and your tax implications.  Most importantly, intelligent investing is preventing yourself from being your own worst enemy.  Until you have achieved a portfolio that will be able to provide a pension-like income stream for several decades most should not even consider investing in individual securities.  This takes time and the earlier you start and invest in tax-advantaged accounts the sooner you will achieve your financial goals.

Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM, is a financial advisor with Turner Investments, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.  He served as vice-president of RBC Capital markets in New York City and VP with Credit Suisse in Toronto.

About the picture: “I’m recently retired, have lived and worked all over the world in the last 20 years – Dominican Republic, Cuba, France, Hong Kong, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Thailand, Abu Dhabi and South Korea,” says blog dog Carole. “Amazing expat life of adventure, but happy to return to live in Canada (expensive but worth it). Picked up this “desert shepherd” from the streets of Dubai while working in the UAE. Maybe you can use this photo of Peepster. I’ve got a great diversified diy portfolio of equities (dividend stocks, etfs) and am grateful for direction gleaned from your blog. Thanks again.”

110 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 04.07.21 at 2:38 pm

Anyone remember the early 1990s? Meningitis and Mono swept through the schools. Many kids sick, some died.
We did not cancel the kid’s sports, make them mask, or stand 6 feet apart.
*For the first time in history* we need fines and jail time to convince us to be taking care of our health!?

— When the globalists attack.
The goal, is in getting us used to shortages, supply chain issues, lining up. Such that when the zero-carbon Green Deal comes we will accept being in the stone ages.

.Ontario To Impose Provence Wide Stay-At-Home Order – Close Non-Essential Aisles In Big Box Stores

— This is War! Colour coded combat zones as in Iraq. Checkpoints. Gee if only we’d had some heads up on this…like, a leak.

.Quebec now has inter-regional travel ban. From 8 April, residents of the red and orange zones will be prohibited from travelling to the yellow zone.

— Yes, back to the 2008 levels – of malaise.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Toronto’s office vacancy rate hit 9.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, as more businesses tried to get rid of their office space after months of work-from-home mandates. The Globe’s Rachelle Younglai writes that the vacancy rate was nearly two percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year, marking the highest level since early 2008 when the global financial crisis led to a vacancy rate of 9.5 per cent”

————-
–This really is bad news. “Better the devil you know.”
You just know that the replacement will be totally on board with shutdown of the Oil & Gas industry.

.Nenshi bows out after 3 terms as Calgary mayor

—————-
—————-
#49 Ustabe on 04.06.21 at 4:15 pm
– Don’t worry even Monopoly game is being reset as part of cancel culture.
It actually will teach kids on the coming Social Credit Score. CCP style.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/monopoly-long-overdue-socially-conscious-makeover-hasbro-says
Monopoly getting ‘long overdue’ socially conscious makeover, Hasbro says
Community chest cards might penalize players for forgetting to recycle

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm

This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.

Cantonese is a dying language.

An article recently published in the China Post claimed that due to the widespread use of Mandarin in Hong Kong over the last decade, Cantonese is a dying language. Since Hong Kong was handed back to China by Britain in 1997, more than 160 primary schools have switched over from teaching students in Cantonese to Mandarin. According to the article, more parents are speaking to their children in English and Mandarin, in hopes that it will help their kids enter an international school. Also, the number of visitors from Mainland China to Hong Kong has increased, and many businesses have made it a priority that staff greet customers in Mandarin.
https://www.straight.com/news/cantonese-endangered-language

#3 SnowOwl on 04.07.21 at 2:43 pm

I am a simple man – I see Charlie Munger buys into BABA, I buy FXI.

#4 TerziogluTerritory aka Prince Polo on 04.07.21 at 2:44 pm

My margin was used to scoop up Cdn banks, REIT, and Enbridge when they were on sale last year!

Do I get a treat & pat on the head for being a good boy?

#5 Ken on 04.07.21 at 2:47 pm

“…Until you have achieved a portfolio that will be able to provide a pension-like income stream for several decades most should not even consider investing in individual securities.”

Hey Mr. Turner — Sounds like you have a smart guy on your staff!

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 2:57 pm

Good article Sinan.
Borrowing money to invest.
I did it once against my better judgement…
My slimeball Financial advisor made a great commish on a shite recommendation.
I paid off the loan over 18 months and got the hell out.
Lesson learned.
Never again.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$

@#2 Perpetual PanAsian Ponzerrelli
“This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.”

+++

Too Late Ponzi !
Yer flogging a dead mule.
You lost , accept defeat…. like an audited Accountant does.

#7 Brian Ripley on 04.07.21 at 3:00 pm

My Toronto vs Vancouver housing chart is up with March data:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

n March 2021 as FOMO 2.0 wilding continued unfolding, the single family detached price gap came in at 40% more to live in a Vancouver detached house; to catch up, a Toronto detached seller needs to get on average another $555,340. Strata prices are also still more expensive in Vancouver at 20% more for townhouses and 6% more for condos. Strata price differences are shrinking between the two metros.

TOR has 1.2 x more Listings than VAN
TOR has 2.7 x more Sales than VAN

Inventory Sold Each Month: TOR = 148% VAN = 62%
Months of Inventory: TOR = 0.7 VAN = 1.6

VAN SFD is valued 40% higher than a TOR SFD
10 year inflation rate of SFDs VAN: 126% TOR: 145%

VAN T-House is valued 20% higher than a TOR T-House
VAN Condo is valued 6% higher than a TOR Condo

Average Annual Payroll Earnings (JAN Data 2 mo. report lag)
ON: $61,305 and BC: $58,01
Annual Precipitation VAN:TOR = 2:1

​Monthly Absorption Rate
ie: Total Sales / Total Listings)​

MAR 2021: The absorption rate spiked to 148% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 62%​​
FEB 2020: The absorption rate spiked to 82% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 23%​
MAR 2017: The absorption rate hit a freaky 152% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%

Here is a progression of detached price increases:
JAN 2013, the SFD price was 88% more in Vancouver vs Toronto
MAY 2017, the SFD peak price was 51% more in Vancouver vs Toronto
FEB 2019, the SFD price was 47% more in Vancouver vs Toronto​
MAR 2021, the SFD peak price is 40% more in Vancouver vs the peak price in Toronto

#8 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.07.21 at 3:01 pm

Invest for long term, do not speculate or rake a chance on new, unproven asset classes or the ARK superstar find if the day. Got it Ryan ,good,solid,sane advice.
Learnings from yesterday:
1) Insights into politics and social issues , population and economic trends gathered at an enhanced massage parlor are suspect and mostly wrong- Score: Who knew ? . Let us stress again that Cantonese is the main language in Hong Kong and a major language still in the Guangdong province. Taiwan is different from Hong Kong in culture and history.
2) Someone brags about 9.8% return in their TFSA with a balanced portfolio. Skeptical on that one but doable over 1 year though I wouldn’t exactly call that balanced . Score:Meh !. Now show me 9.8% over 10 or 15 years on a true balanced 60/40 and color me impressed.
3)Sailo has a family of pink unicorns on his lawn as true a s point 2 above. Score: Amazing and bonus points for lightening the mood.
4) People on this blog in majority own RE and think that those that do not are dumb to buy Score: Hypocritical, Best time to buy RE to live in it ( ya know 20 years timeliness) as history proves was yesterday, next best time: today.
5) add on to point 4: Real inflation in Canada is at least 10% and clearly a lot of people expect that to continue. The only true high value asset remaining after the demise of gold is RE. Yes, yes some will get burned ,doesn’t change the fact that buying as much has as you can afford to live in it is tried and true.
6) People still seek financial advice with their life savings from strangers on a free blog. Score: At a loss for words mmmm is this real ? Please do yourself a favor, get a financial advisor or checkout the Couch Potato Portfolio, heck even going with Wealth Simple or Tangerine Funds is better then first option.At least you can see actual historical returns.

Have a glorious week

#9 Looking Up on 04.07.21 at 3:22 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm
This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.

Cantonese is a dying language.

An article recently published in the China Post claimed that due to the widespread use of Mandarin in Hong Kong over the last decade, Cantonese is a dying language. Since Hong Kong was handed back to China by Britain in 1997, more than 160 primary schools have switched over from teaching students in Cantonese to Mandarin. According to the article, more parents are speaking to their children in English and Mandarin, in hopes that it will help their kids enter an international school. Also, the number of visitors from Mainland China to Hong Kong has increased, and many businesses have made it a priority that staff greet customers in Mandarin.
https://www.straight.com/news/cantonese-endangered-language

————-

This is my last post as well on the topic.

Again your doubling down on deflecting your ignorance that you didn’t know most people speak Cantonese in Hong Kong.

And again, as far as your statement of practicing Mandarin with Hong Kongers immigrating to Canada which laughably started all this, these Hong Kongers are fleeing Hong Kong from the mainland oppressors who are hijacking their political and judicial system, moving Hong Kong business to Shanghai, and forcing them to give up their culture and language.

Most certainly when you greet these arriving refugee Hong Kongers with a friendly “Nihao” to “practice your Mandarin”, your will undoubtedly be the recipient of some colorful Cantonese expletives.

#10 Underground Economy on 04.07.21 at 3:22 pm

gaining steam in the GTA. What did politicians think would happen? can they be this stupid?

don’t blame teachers not wanting to go to work– heck, the doctors are leading the way. Zoom physicals, lol. Don’t get sick folks , our healthcare system is kinda of a joke at the moment

zoom physicals? come on docs, put on a mask and get back to work. Lead by example .

#11 JR on 04.07.21 at 3:37 pm

“produces no cash flows and therefore lacks an intrinsic value”
You’re missing the mark so much it hurts.

First of all, cryptocurrency has developed into Decentralized Finance (Defi) and does indeed produce a great yeild.
https://defipulse.com/
https://apy.vision/#/liquidity-pools

Second of all, the man who wrote the book on the history of money had the following to say:
– “The reasons for Bitcoin’s success are that it is sovereign (no one controls it, not the ‘whales’ who own a lot, and not the miners who mine a lot), scarce (that 21 million number is final), and — above all — smart.“

– “My $75,000 target price back in 2018 (assuming that every millionaire would one day want 1% of his or her portfolio in XBT) now looks a bit conservative.“

– “Allen Farrington argues that Bitcoin is to the system of fiat currencies centered around the dollar what medieval Venice once was to the remnants of the western Roman Empire, as superior an economic operating system as commercial capitalism was to feudalism.“

– “Although Bitcoin currently looks to outsiders like a speculative asset, in practice it performs at least two of the three classic functions of money quite well, or soon will, as adoption continues. It can be (like gold) both a store of value and a unit of account.“

– “Bitcoin is not an ideal medium of exchange precisely because its ultimate supply is fixed and not adaptive, but that’s not a fatal limitation. In many ways, it is Bitcoin’s unique advantage.“

– “… Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as a great many other digital coins and tokens, are stateless money. And the more they can perform at least two out of three monetary functions tolerably well, the less that banning them is going to work — unless every government agrees to do so simultaneously, which seems like a stretch. The U.S. isn’t going to ban Bitcoin, just tax it whenever you convert bitcoins into dollars.“

Source: https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2021/04/u-s-isnt-going-to-ban-bitcoin-says-renowned-financial-historian-niall-ferguson/?utm_source=delta.app&utm_medium=mobile&utm_campaign=delta-direct&utm_term=android

#12 baloney Sandwitch on 04.07.21 at 3:41 pm

Good article. The thing to remember is that the time to prepare for the storm is when its calm. Things are good right now, reduce risk and raise cash.

#13 george on 04.07.21 at 3:45 pm

“…Until you have achieved a portfolio that will be able to provide a pension-like income stream for several decades most should not even consider investing in individual securities.”

…………

nah, life’s too short . Moderation

had to buy SHOP last late April– see the weekly candle it formed , cmon now..:)

#14 House of ill dispute on 04.07.21 at 3:57 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm
This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.

Cantonese is a dying language.

An article recently published in the China Post claimed that due to the widespread use of Mandarin in Hong Kong over the last decade, Cantonese is a dying language. Since Hong Kong was handed back to China by Britain in 1997, more than 160 primary schools have switched over from teaching students in Cantonese to Mandarin. According to the article, more parents are speaking to their children in English and Mandarin, in hopes that it will help their kids enter an international school. Also, the number of visitors from Mainland China to Hong Kong has increased, and many businesses have made it a priority that staff greet customers in Mandarin.
https://www.straight.com/news/cantonese-endangered-language

_______________________________________

Had me some Cantonese the other night after dinner. Half an hour later, I was hungry again.

#15 Faron on 04.07.21 at 4:00 pm

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 8:40 am

@#134 jane24

Crowdie, ever notice that Jane24 doesn’t respond to your gripes about her?

#16 Richard L on 04.07.21 at 4:02 pm

An excellent post with very sound advice. Thank you Mr. Terzioglu.

#17 Old Ron on 04.07.21 at 4:11 pm

# 1 Turner Nation

I out of every 1,622 Canadians has died from Covid. Nothing you mentioned compares to that.

If you went to a Sold Out Jays game at Rogers Centre and 30 fans died, that would be huge news. That is the ratio we are talking about.

#18 Doug t on 04.07.21 at 4:14 pm

Come on man – just give us the Get Rich Quick program you and the rich use – not this SLOW get rich version – I wanna get rich fast dude

#19 Andrewski on 04.07.21 at 4:19 pm

Sinan, so I’m clear, you stated:

“ If you are going to invest in highly speculative securities like this at the very least don’t hold them in registered accounts like TFSAs and RRSP since all of the contribution room for these accounts should be handled with care. Once lost you cannot get the contribution room back. Speculative securities should only be held in a non-registered account so you have the ability to utilize capital losses to offset future capital gains”.

I understand you do not regain contribution room in an RRSP, but I think that the year after you withdraw funds from a TFSA, you get that contribution room back? Appreciate the clarification.

#20 KLNR on 04.07.21 at 4:22 pm

@#10 Underground Economy on 04.07.21 at 3:22 pm
gaining steam in the GTA. What did politicians think would happen? can they be this stupid?

don’t blame teachers not wanting to go to work– heck, the doctors are leading the way. Zoom physicals, lol. Don’t get sick folks , our healthcare system is kinda of a joke at the moment

zoom physicals? come on docs, put on a mask and get back to work. Lead by example .

Just had my annual physical in person.
My Doc literally called his fellow docs not showing up for work cowards. said they were all born the silver spoon types lol.

#21 JB on 04.07.21 at 4:22 pm

My neighbor just purchased a new Tesla. He plugs it in every second day or so and away he goes. You’ve got to ask yourself how long before these greedy money grubbing socialist liberals whom push electric cars are going to notice their voluminous gas tax is going down? How the hell are they going to tax electricity for your Tesla if its coming from your home? Also what if you don’t have an electric car in your driveway are they still going to tax your ass off?
Sort of makes you think?

#22 HP on 04.07.21 at 4:24 pm

Thanks for the great post, Sinan. A good read, as always.

#23 TurnerNation on 04.07.21 at 4:24 pm

Poor newest New Guy, putting up with the feral Blog Dogs. Several mutated breeds here, variants if you will, are of great concern

———
How’d you like a UBI son?

“”Last week’s abrupt move to shut down all dining so soon after easing restrictions has cost Ontario’s restaurants more than $100 million in reopening and closing costs alone,” reads a joint open letter from the presidents of Restaurants Canada and the Ontario Restaurant Hotel & Motel Association (ORHMA) to Premier Doug Ford.
“They are counting on your government to act quickly to save our industry, which typically employs more than 450,000 people.””

….

— Oh, you think electric cars will save your freedoms? Nope. The goal is control over our travel always. #stayhome they told us, since the New System was rolled out March 2020 right?

Brett Dolter @BrettDolter
The Saskatchewan budget 2021-22 includes a tax on electric vehicles with the rationale that they don’t pay gasoline fuel taxes. This is the opposite of what’s needed to encourage the necessary shift to non-emitting transportation. @saskevca
………

https://twitter.com/Milhouse_Van_Ho/status/1379641064580124672
“Interesting convo (not mine) with an Ontario doctor. Your tax dollars at work while the economy and public health crumble.”
———

Why the Daily changes and 1001 new laws? In 2020 this went into hyperdrive. The reason is this WW3 is for our Minds.
Time-tested tactics employed – cancel culture:

“The Czech author Milan Kundera begins one of his novels with the observation that ‘The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting’. He wrote this specifically about a tactic of leaders behind the Iron Curtain: ‘airbrushing’ inconvenient people from photographs so as to cleanse them from public record. More generally, he was making the point that ideologies – all ideologies – rely on the obliteration of history….

Lockdownism, the ideology that now dominates public life, is no different. One of its central elements is forgetting the past, including the very recent past. Before 2020, nobody spoke about ‘lockdown’, ‘social distancing’, ‘the R-rate’, ‘self-isolation’ and so on. Yet we now talk about these concepts as though they have existed for decades – almost as though they are immutable facts about how we have always dealt with infectious disease, rather than a series of ideas dreamed up on the spur of the moment and imposed in a panic…”

#24 Stone on 04.07.21 at 4:26 pm

Investing intelligently is about controlling your expectations, your risk and your tax implications.

———

Yes indeed. I’d add that you need goals. Goal numero uno: CASHFLOW!!! With that, most other goals are possible.

I like Sinan. I like everyone else on Garth’s team too. Even the hairy chicken legs guy who spends too much time collecting sports and Pokémon cards as well as running shoes. And Garth the most. They’re all smart.

Well, on that note, that wonderful balanced and diversified portfolio of mine did what it does most of the time. It grew. It grows so much I need to buy it new clothes and shoes regularly. Do ETFs wear clothes and shoes? Or is that just me? Hey, other people dress up their fur babies. Now that’s weird. Either way, my dressed up cosplay B&D now sits at 9.93% ytd.

#8 ElGatoNerodeYVR, that was funny. As for pink unicorns on SAs lawn, I believe it. He’s got kitschy whale art. Why not kitschy pink unicorns? He does live in BC right. Don’t they do lots of weird things out there in the periphery?

#25 VladTor on 04.07.21 at 4:31 pm

GameStop again for 1 month changed from 46 to 180 today. Some people with pump/dump game made good money! Rules for investing from old era in new digital, Google, Twitter, Robinhood etc. eras not working anymore. New reality. If you not a member some team (I will be quiet about exact definitions those team) – you are looser on 99%.
Rule “Always Think Long Term” – forgot about this! Time gona.

#26 RWZM on 04.07.21 at 4:34 pm

When housing is pushed up at these rates, getting rich slowly is actually getting poor quickly.

#27 Good News on 04.07.21 at 4:34 pm

I put bitcoin in the same asset class as collectibles.

I own 100 shares of AMC @$10 and have done okay selling monthly covered calls so far. Hopefully I’ll be able to exit next year at around $10?

I sold all of my GME at 400% except for one share which I’m going to keep as a collectible ;)

None of this in registered accounts of course

#28 IHCTD9 on 04.07.21 at 4:36 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm
This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.

Cantonese is a dying language.

An article recently published in the China Post claimed that due to the widespread use of Mandarin in Hong Kong over the last decade, Cantonese is a dying language. Since Hong Kong was handed back to China by Britain in 1997, more than 160 primary schools have switched over from teaching students in Cantonese to Mandarin. According to the article, more parents are speaking to their children in English and Mandarin, in hopes that it will help their kids enter an international school. Also, the number of visitors from Mainland China to Hong Kong has increased, and many businesses have made it a priority that staff greet customers in Mandarin.
https://www.straight.com/news/cantonese-endangered-language
_______

Ponzie – all languages are dying except for English. 1-2 hundred years from now, speaking anything other than English will be just for a hobby. You’re Austrian, and your wife is Chinese – what language do your kids speak? Right, same thing that happened at our house. 1st gens have no interest in learning their parents’ native language. the only Frisian I know are swear words!

#29 mountain guy on 04.07.21 at 4:38 pm

from ‘Lambert Strether of Corrente’ 06-04-2021, regarding housing in USA:

Housing: “If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund” [WSJ]. “The country’s most prolific home builder booked roughly twice what it typically makes selling houses to the middle class—an encouraging debut in the business of selling entire neighborhoods to investors….. From individuals with smartphones and a few thousand dollars to pensions and private-equity firms with billions, yield-chasing investors are snapping up single-family houses to rent out or flip. They are competing for houses with ordinary Americans, who are armed with the cheapest mortgage financing ever, and driving up home prices.”

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 4:47 pm

Re: Derivatives
I was working in an overseer position in the Credit Union System in the 90s.
The Credit Unions were lending like crazy. They were giving out more mortgages than the 5 Big together in BC.
MBSs became a way to legally go around capital restraints, which allowed them to keep on lending.
We did our audit and found the practise highly speculative and restricted their use by the Member Credit Unions.
Fast forward to 08.
MBSs and SubPrime mortgage defaults bring the financial markets to a stand still.
Liquidity tries out. No one knows how deep this all goes.
There are some speculations that there may be up to 40 trillion of Derivatives floating out there.
Scary stuff.
Moral of the story: Stay away from financial instruments that don’t understand.
You’re not stupid, just prudent.

#31 mike from mtl on 04.07.21 at 4:55 pm

#9 Looking Up on 04.07.21 at 3:22 pm

Most certainly when you greet these arriving refugee Hong Kongers with a friendly “Nihao” to “practice your Mandarin”, your will undoubtedly be the recipient of some colorful Cantonese expletives.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Right, that would be roughly like saying to a Quebecois they’re American, would not be taken well.

Also on the subject to do your head in, the “standard Chinese” written in last century is largely based on Mandarin norms, vernacular written Cantonese, not seen outside HK, is really weird.

Having studied Japanese I know probably a thousand or so 漢字, not enough to be a literate adult but enough to get an idea. Obviously there is large overlap in written form since these were adopted far back in history, obviously not all are 1:1.

Also kinda strange how Japanese is also a hotdog language like English. You take:

>An island nation
>People displaced locals long ago from continent (probably via Korea)
>A unique language whose grammar is spooky similar to continental (Korean)
>Borrow heavily words and writing system from local empire (China)
>Result is a mystery meat of cognates and doublets with subtile meanings and uses, and stubborn old mixed writing system that is a proper mess.

#32 chopstix on 04.07.21 at 5:03 pm

#8 ElGatoNerodeYVR
i should have been more general on the one hand and also offered more context on the other:
I am talking to a few CFPs and also looking at wealthsimple or questtrade/questwealth amongst other avenues for roboadvisors…and yes I am on couchpotato, boomer and echo, cdn money forum (amongst other sites) trying to sort things out too…sure i gave too much info, i get that. wish i hadn’t but it is what it is.
should instead have just asked for some imput/ops on a good CFP (have met with one so far and have 2-4 more meetings scheduled with others) as well as for people’s op on a good Roboadvisor (for a good balanced equity fund) or investment advisor (yes also considering Turner investments) …have read mixed things on wealthsimple due to delays on transactions etc…
overall i’m still in discovery stages.
so no i’m not a total naive dick…but do feel like one.

#33 wallflower on 04.07.21 at 5:15 pm

Dude
#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm
You sure know how to argue a point for which there was no premise. Take your mask off; it is affecting your reading and comprehension.

The original point to which you dude-as* responded was the poster was looking forward to brushing up on his/her Mandarin when all these Hong Kongers arrive in Canada…
Why on any earth would Hong Kongers fleeing the China repression opt to speak the language of their oppressors when they arrive in Canada?

Enough. The rest of us get it.
You are tiresome.

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 5:17 pm

Welcome home, Carole.
I guess, deep down we’re all salmons.
I had always planned to retire somewhere in Europe.
But, things happen.
No regrets.

#35 What is Even Happening? on 04.07.21 at 5:18 pm

Spot on advice, thanks Sinan! Especially with crypto. A friend who trades/invests in Bitcoin and crypto for a living told me my investment in crypto should be an amount I’m fine losing completely. It’s the same advice he’s given to clients.

#36 KNOW IT ALL on 04.07.21 at 5:28 pm

Only 1 issue with “Getting Rich Slowly”

….. it takes too long.

#37 protea on 04.07.21 at 5:34 pm

Sinan commend you on a very thoughtful post. Everything you stated makes a lot of common sense . Only one thing I take exception to is if you are to invest in Bitcoin the percentage of ones portfolio should at most be between half and 1 percent maximum.
Garth is fortunate to have you on his team, keep up the great articles.

#38 Wrk.dover on 04.07.21 at 5:36 pm

Sinan, I never even considered losing contribution room was a thing. There is a regularly largely fluxuating over and under stock I have in there I have cavalierly been playing roulette with.

Thanks for such a basic tip, that has so much impact.

#39 JSS on 04.07.21 at 5:40 pm

Awesome article. Thank you

#40 Yorkville renter on 04.07.21 at 5:41 pm

slow and steady wins the race

#41 Inequity on 04.07.21 at 5:44 pm

#18 Doug t

I think R. Guerin has a pretty good book on this…

#42 The West on 04.07.21 at 5:45 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/gracelife-church-edmonton-covid-1.5977931

I guess God only saves the Queen.

Businesses being destroyed. Governments losing all legitimacy. Economy bleeding out. Lives being ruined. Suicide rates climbing, opioid deaths climbing. Schools shuttered. Social life cancelled.

Get the vax people – hurry up! Then we can re-open society….

But there are the variants…. I don’t wanna get deleted – so fill in the brackets.

( )

This is a bad joke Canada – and it’s at your expense.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-to-enter-four-week-provincewide-covid-19-shutdown-on-saturday-1.5371041

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-restaurants-bars-resigned-to-weathering-third-pandemic-shutdown-1.5977680

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/covid-19/info/restrictions

“Get rich slowly” LOL Social mobility is gone. The ladder has been pulled up forever.

Remember, we’re all in this together.

Someday, the future will look at you and ask why all this happened. Be prepared to tell them you all were cowards when it counted most.

#43 Mattl on 04.07.21 at 5:46 pm

#17 Old Ron on 04.07.21 at 4:11 pm
# 1 Turner Nation

I out of every 1,622 Canadians has died from Covid. Nothing you mentioned compares to that.

If you went to a Sold Out Jays game at Rogers Centre and 30 fans died, that would be huge news. That is the ratio we are talking about.

—————————————————-

I wouldn’t be that shocked to learn that of the 50K people at a Jays game, 30 of them would die over the next 12 months. The death rate is 7-8 per K in any given year so I’d expect close to 400 to not make it to a game 12 months later. Death rate in Canada, fwiw, is about the same as it’s always been, through 2020 and 2021.

#44 Shirl Clarts on 04.07.21 at 5:51 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 04.07.21 at 2:38 pm

Maybe just stick to one comment/subject.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 5:52 pm

@#15 Faron.
“Crowdie, ever notice that Jane24 doesn’t respond to your gripes about her?”

++++

No, but I have you and Triggered Sara to respond to.
Two for the price of one comment..

#46 BTC on 04.07.21 at 5:54 pm

we should be good, why?….lol, printing presses on full throttle

FOMC MINUTES: Participants agreed that the economy remained far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain
Asset Purchases
Participants noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized and that, consistent with the Committee’s outcome-based guidance, asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then.
Economy
Agreeed path ahead remained highly uncertain with the pandemic continuing to pose risks

#47 Vancouver help on 04.07.21 at 6:03 pm

Saw this posted today “CFIB warns Ontario lock-down puts thousands of businesses at risk”

So based on the past events of the last year this will mean another 20 -30% increase in property values as this is what is happening despite common sense.

The question is WHY?

#48 Puzni on 04.07.21 at 6:11 pm

Re : #21 – JB

Those politicians already noticed declining taxes in their province:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-government-to-roll-out-150-tax-for-passenger-electric-vehicles-1.5977554

#49 Looking Up on 04.07.21 at 6:12 pm

#31 mike from mtl on 04.07.21 at 4:55 pm
#9 Looking Up on 04.07.21 at 3:22 pm

Most certainly when you greet these arriving refugee Hong Kongers with a friendly “Nihao” to “practice your Mandarin”, your will undoubtedly be the recipient of some colorful Cantonese expletives.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Right, that would be roughly like saying to a Quebecois they’re American, would not be taken well.

Also on the subject to do your head in, the “standard Chinese” written in last century is largely based on Mandarin norms, vernacular written Cantonese, not seen outside HK, is really weird.

Having studied Japanese I know probably a thousand or so 漢字, not enough to be a literate adult but enough to get an idea. Obviously there is large overlap in written form since these were adopted far back in history, obviously not all are 1:1.

Also kinda strange how Japanese is also a hotdog language like English. You take:

>An island nation
>People displaced locals long ago from continent (probably via Korea)
>A unique language whose grammar is spooky similar to continental (Korean)
>Borrow heavily words and writing system from local empire (China)
>Result is a mystery meat of cognates and doublets with subtile meanings and uses, and stubborn old mixed writing system that is a proper mess.

———

You learned 1000 plus characters in Japanese?

I’m impressed, very impressed. Particularly if your heritage is not Japanese. No easy feat to be sure.

Funny you should mention Japan and Korea being similar. Having been to both Japan and Korea I find the 2 cultures amazingly similar from the mannerisms of the people to the Izakaya type restaurants and narrow streets and lighting.

I know very very little Japanese and even less Korean but the languages sound very similar to me.

I’ve often wondered if they were once the same culture.

#50 Sinan Terzioglu on 04.07.21 at 6:14 pm

#19 Andrewski – I understand you do not regain contribution room in an RRSP, but I think that the year after you withdraw funds from a TFSA, you get that contribution room back? Appreciate the clarification.

– You are correct. If you withdraw funds from a TFSA you do not lose the contribution room but you have to wait until the following January to re-contribute the withdrawn amount – Sinan

#51 Paddy on 04.07.21 at 6:15 pm

#19 Andrewski:

Sinan isn’t talking about withdrawals, he’s talking about holding risky, speculative investments. If you max out your TFSA and invest it all into a stock and that stock plummets to $0, you’ve lost that room forever….until next year when you get your contribution limit of another 6k. I suppose if you found another speculative investment and invested that 6k into it and it returned 1258% and sold, you would be back where you started…..but that ain’t gnna happen….moral of the story is hold diversified investments in your TFSA/RRSP.

#52 Paddy on 04.07.21 at 6:21 pm

#19 Andrewski

And yes, whatever you withdrawal from a TFSA, you can recontribute that amount+your new annual contribution room on Jan 1 of the following year.

#53 espressobob on 04.07.21 at 6:33 pm

Great post Sinan,

As a retail investor for many years there is that little monkey on my back known as temptation. Who doesn’t want to hit a grand slam? An old cliche goes ‘you can beat a race but won’t beat the track’.

Throwing caution to the wind in the past proved futile. It’s good to be reminded of ones limitations once in a while.

I’ll stick with a global index approach. Thx.

#54 tbone on 04.07.21 at 6:38 pm

I bought a bunch of bank stocks and ENB over the last 10 years . Now that i dont work its like a pension that pays out every month but i own the principal . Its better than a pension .

#55 Flop... on 04.07.21 at 6:50 pm

Remember a while back more than a few of us enjoyed watching “Planet of the humans” the Jeff Gibbs/Michael Moore effort on climate change, fossil fuels and the green energy movement?

I recently watched this documentary by Ron Howard on the California wildfires and thought it was of similar quality.

Rebuilding Paradise.

92% approved on Rotten Tomatoes.

Don’t know if someone can find a way to put the whole movie up, I could only find trailers online, I watched it free on tv on demand, but I think a lot of guys on here that live in rural and semi-rural should seek it out just as a reminder to keep the amount of fuel down near your properties.

The first 7 minutes is all you need to watch in this regard.

Highlights?

Can there be any highlights in a movie about a fire that claimed 85 lives?

I found a few.

The towns resiliency is impressive, maybe this is a U.S version of what happened up in Fort Mac? Shout out to my old buddy Washed Up Lawyer, you still up there brother?

Trump being Trump, at the press conference called the town Pleasure, and had to be corrected that the town he was there to inspect, was in fact, called Paradise.

The self-admitted town drunk, that had gotten his act together, and at one stage was the town mayor quipped at the end when questioned if he should be rebuilding in the same place….”I’m 74 years old, I don’t really give a shit.”

My old buddy Boom would have loved that one…

M46BC

“On the morning of Nov. 8, 2018, a devastating firestorm engulfed the picturesque city of Paradise, California. By the time the Camp Fire was extinguished, it had killed 85 people, displaced 50,000 residents and destroyed 95% of local structures. It was the deadliest U.S. fire in 100 years — and the worst ever in California’s history. REBUILDING PARADISE, from Academy Award-winning director RON HOWARD, is a moving story of resilience in the face of tragedy, as a community ravaged by disaster comes together to recover what was lost and begin the important task of rebuilding.”

Official Trailer.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RNzqZS41fB4

#56 Andrewski on 04.07.21 at 6:53 pm

Re: #50 Sinan & #51, 52 Paddy: thank you gentlemen.

#57 Brian on 04.07.21 at 7:01 pm

OK, so BTC, absolute limited supply vs Fiat with printing presses running overtime and M2 supply going hyperbolic. Which do you think will be worth more in the future?

The one world governments back and support with taxes. Oh, and the one you can buy stuff with and actually use. – Garth

#58 YVR 60% Crash on 04.07.21 at 7:04 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm
This is my last post on Cantonese/ Mandarin controversy.
Gotta move on.
Cantonese is a dying language.

—————————-

There are 62 million speakers of Cantonese in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces.
72 million speakers of Cantonese worldwide.

You’re right about that. Gotta move on and not make a greater fool out of yourself …. Again.

#59 Sail Away on 04.07.21 at 7:04 pm

#17 Old Ron on 04.07.21 at 4:11 pm
# 1 Turner Nation

I out of every 1,622 Canadians has died from Covid. Nothing you mentioned compares to that.

If you went to a Sold Out Jays game at Rogers Centre and 30 fans died, that would be huge news. That is the ratio we are talking about.

———

So, let’s accurately apply your analogy:

1. the stadium needs to contain a full cross-section of Canadians. All ages and health statuses

2. they all need to stay in the stadium for a full year- that’s one looooooooong baseball game

3. in addition to the 30 Covid-ers you mention, another 127 Canadians in that stadium will also die from things other than CV

You’re welcome!

#60 RE: Cryptocurrencies on 04.07.21 at 7:09 pm

White Bitcoin does not produce cash flow like a conventional business, crypto miners, who provide the infrastructure and perform the work to secure the network and its value DO in fact produce very regular and compelling cash flows.

HIVE, listed on the TSX:V, and one of the biggest crypto miners in North America is currently raking in close to $500,000/day on a very low cost of capital. Their gross mining margins are something over 80% when I did some back-of-envelope calculations. HUT, BITF all good too, and DGHI is very compelling at current valuation.

I hold BTC as well, but the miners have given me leveraged gains to the underlying asset, and better yet, I did that all within the TFSA so not a single dollar will be taxed. One of the most obvious plays for 2021 if Bitcoin attains $100K or more this year.

#61 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? To Pay For His Xmas Turks + Caicos Holiday on 04.07.21 at 7:11 pm

In addition to having to pay taxes this year on net income under $20k, I have also lost my $75 basic sales tax credit.
A ripoff of a thousand increases in taxes.
Just wait until next year, it will be people under $10k of income that will have to now pay taxes.

#62 Cici on 04.07.21 at 7:17 pm

#19 Andrewski on 04.07.21 at 4:19 pm
Sinan, so I’m clear, you stated:

“ If you are going to invest in highly speculative securities like this at the very least don’t hold them in registered accounts like TFSAs and RRSP since all of the contribution room for these accounts should be handled with care. Once lost you cannot get the contribution room back. Speculative securities should only be held in a non-registered account so you have the ability to utilize capital losses to offset future capital gains”.

I understand you do not regain contribution room in an RRSP, but I think that the year after you withdraw funds from a TFSA, you get that contribution room back? Appreciate the clarification.

___________________________________________

That’s not what he’s talking about. He isn’t referring to physically withdrawing funds. He’s talking about losing your contribution through highly speculative investments that don’t work out. In other words, if you plunk this year’s $5,500 TFSA contribution into something speculative that subsequently loses value (say your total investment plunges from $5,500 worth of shares to $300), you’ve effectively lost $5,200 worth of contribution room through a lousy investment decision.

Take it from someone who’s made that very mistake (a few times, duh!). Sinan is right… it’s no fun!

But yes, you can make a withdrawal and recontribute according to the rules that are all over the Net. You can also withdraw and repay RRSPs if you follow the rules.

Just don’t waste your contribution room by gambling it away on stupid, speculative stocks.

#63 espressobob on 04.07.21 at 7:39 pm

#60 RE: Cryptocurrencies

There are no fundamentals that support crypto other than speculation.

Getting whip sawed is a bitch. A lesson unfortunately learned the hard way. Tough being on the wrong of a trade.

Experience trains hard.

#64 RE: Cryptocurrencies on 04.07.21 at 7:51 pm

@espressobob

$500,000 per day, in fees, daily, is enough “fundamentals” for me, and my 1,200% capital gain on HIVE is satisfactory, and not a cent of that was taxed.

Cute slogans tho.

#65 SoggyShorts on 04.07.21 at 8:02 pm

#152 chopstix on 04.07.21 at 9:48 am
hi soggy pants:
-am 59
-have 130k rrsp maxing out each yr when i can @ $2500 alowable
-have 45k tfsa (soon to be topped to 75k w mva payout)
-have 2100/mo pension accumulated so far (telus) if i were to retire @ 65…each yr i remain working adds another $110ish/mo..hence trying to ‘hang in there’ for another 6-7 yrs.
-have no RE equity: stupidly didn’t get into market on time so I rent…trying to get into a coop to lessen rental expenses.
-am putting away 8-10k/yr as well, live within my means.
-at least i have zero debt, a good credit rating of 850.
*don’t be too hard on me please: I kick myself enough as it is..

*************************************
Short answer: Diversify that last $30K top-up by investing in the S&P500 index.

Longer answer:
Honestly, I think you aren’t doing too bad, ~30K pension with a ~250K portfolio will be better than most retirees at 65.
Add in CPP and with reasonable returns, you’re looking at ~53K per year in retirement.
You didn’t mention a spouse so I assume there isn’t one, but even solo that’s a reasonable lifestyle so long as you don’t live in some crazy expensive part of GTA/GVA
As for what to put into your TFSA for top-up I’d suggest just about anything other than more Telus shares (unless there’s some sort of discount or incentive for employees?)
I doubt that anything will happen to Telus, but too many eggs in that basket isn’t great, might be a good opportunity to diversify and while some would disagree, ZSP representing the S&P 500 is very well diversified.

Not just the top 500 companies in the US, but basically the top in the world since many are global. These companies will continue to make profits because either they buy up anyone who could compete or they bribe lobby governments for ridiculous advantages etc. Or of course, some actually make a good product.
Regardless of how or why they are in the top 500 it’s a pretty successful group, and most will stay there.

Maybe there’s a safer bet out there with preferreds or some other fixed income but at this point, I think you need growth and the S&P500 looks like it’s headed that way for a while.

Full disclosure: I’m over 2/3 invested in ZSP/VOO

#66 Stone on 04.07.21 at 8:13 pm

#60 RE: Cryptocurrencies on 04.07.21 at 7:09 pm
White Bitcoin does not produce cash flow like a conventional business, crypto miners, who provide the infrastructure and perform the work to secure the network and its value DO in fact produce very regular and compelling cash flows.

HIVE, listed on the TSX:V, and one of the biggest crypto miners in North America is currently raking in close to $500,000/day on a very low cost of capital. Their gross mining margins are something over 80% when I did some back-of-envelope calculations. HUT, BITF all good too, and DGHI is very compelling at current valuation.

I hold BTC as well, but the miners have given me leveraged gains to the underlying asset, and better yet, I did that all within the TFSA so not a single dollar will be taxed. One of the most obvious plays for 2021 if Bitcoin attains $100K or more this year.

———

China has now digitized their fiat currency per the link I provided yesterday. Now that China has done it, how long do you think it will take for major western economies with better rules and transparency to get something up and running as well? When that happens, do you think they will allow Bitcoin or Ethereum or any other cowboy crypto to continue to exist? Do you think they will allow BTC and its buddies (ilk) to convert to digitized fiat currency? They want to eradicate money laundering and the black market economy. That includes crypto. Access denied. Get out while you can.

#67 Km on 04.07.21 at 8:13 pm

#61
Everyone should pay taxes, make it a percentage across the board. I find those that whine the most tend to have a side gig that is all cash as well. Heaven forbid people pay for all the services that are paid for by taxes

#68 Sheesh on 04.07.21 at 8:39 pm

Turner Nation.
Anyone remember the early 1990s? Meningitis and Mono swept through the schools. Many kids sick, some died.
We did not cancel the kid’s sports, make them mask, or stand 6 feet apart…

….your memory is quite selective. Do you also remember that 1) The cause of illness was well known and 2) vaccines were readily available. 3) precautions were taken.
I don’t recall mono being a lethal illness either.

#69 Sheesh on 04.07.21 at 8:53 pm

Turner Nation…this should refresh your memory.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/shots-continue-against-ontario-meningitis-outbreak-1.161994

See if you can spot the differences between that and covid.

#70 cramar on 04.07.21 at 8:58 pm

Hear! Hear! Well said.

#71 Dr V on 04.07.21 at 9:00 pm

Crypto…hmmmm….

What is it ultimately supposed to do? Replace currency?
With an ultimately limited supply? That wont work.

Why does everyone give us value in dollars? Isn’t that irrelevant? Give it in Teslas, or bushels of wheat,
ounces of gold (or pot) so we know the ‘true’ value.

So am I going to save my bitcoin, hoping it can buy an extra F-150 next year, or two extra the year after? Then what do I use to buy my groceries?

#72 espressobob on 04.07.21 at 9:09 pm

#64 RE: Cryptocurrencies

Trades done in a TFSA are tax exempt. The same done in a non registered account are subject to capital gains and dividend taxation. Piling trades in your TFSA can create a situation of losses not recoverable with contribution room. Bummer. Think about that.

Homework is the best direction to go with and avoid bad so called investments and gain an understanding of how this game is played.

I’m not impressed by anyone’s trading skills.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 9:17 pm

#28 IHTCD9
Regarding your Frisan ancestry:
In North West of Germany is Friesland.
Mostly fisherman, know for their colorful lanquage.
The rest of the Germans make fun of them.
Kinda like the Neufies in Canada.
There was a famous comedian called OTTO, who came from there.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 9:18 pm

@#50 Sinan
“– You are correct. If you withdraw funds from a TFSA you do not lose the contribution room but you have to wait until the following January to re-contribute the withdrawn amount – Sinan”

++++
Hi Sinan,
Just curious.
How long does the “re” contribution room remain after you have pulled it out of your TFSA?
Is it indefinite?

#75 Planetgoofy on 04.07.21 at 9:20 pm

#67 Km on 04.07.21 at 8:13 pm
#61
Everyone should pay taxes
———————————–
+1
I pay more than most in this country.
Just get the very basic medical, no dental, no sick days or paid holidays. But if I lose my business ya get to live under a bridge.
Just hop the boarder claim refugee status and your good to go.
Between city hall, provincial and federal I net out the least.
$150k out the door last year too help the unfortunate and the ill planned.

#76 mike from mtl on 04.07.21 at 9:23 pm

#49 Looking Up on 04.07.21 at 6:12 pm
..
You learned 1000 plus characters in Japanese?

I’m impressed, very impressed. Particularly if your heritage is not Japanese. No easy feat to be sure.

Funny you should mention Japan and Korea being similar. Having been to both Japan and Korea I find the 2 cultures amazingly similar from the mannerisms of the people to the Izakaya type restaurants and narrow streets and lighting.

I know very very little Japanese and even less Korean but the languages sound very similar to me.

I’ve often wondered if they were once the same culture.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yep not overnight.

It gets easier once you get used to the sort of repeating patterns and that the most common reading is mostly based on the first leftmost bits. I have zero blood relation just an interest. Like knowing enough of a Latin-based language you can quickly pick up other related ones.

For sure spoken Korean and Japanese have a familiar cadence and sound, not to mention their customs and cultural norms BUT NOT THE SAME language. Stands to reason they most probably have a relation despite their (troubled) past. Up until the war Korea used a mixed script for exactly the same reasons as the Japanese.

The shortcut is not to blindly memorise all the readings, just the meaning(s) in your dominant language unless you plan on living there, there is an overall logic to the madness. Most Japanese probably won’t admit to relying on IME as a writing crutch, same as them I know how to say something and how it probably “should” look.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 9:48 pm

@#73 Ponzirellie’s Papa
“Mostly fisherman, know for their colorful lanquage.
The rest of the Germans make fun of them.”
+++

Did they speak Cantonese or Mandarin…?

#78 Overheardyou on 04.07.21 at 9:48 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 2:40 pm

FYI Cantonese is not from Hong Kong, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangdong

#79 D C on 04.07.21 at 9:58 pm

Sinan looks to have been reading the Blog Dog recommended “The Psychology of Money.” Or just coincidentally the same examples used. For those who liked this column, the book is a quick read and pretty good with these kinds of nuggets.

#80 Nonplused on 04.07.21 at 10:10 pm

#21 JB on 04.07.21 at 4:22 pm
My neighbor just purchased a new Tesla. He plugs it in every second day or so and away he goes. You’ve got to ask yourself how long before these greedy money grubbing socialist liberals whom push electric cars are going to notice their voluminous gas tax is going down? How the hell are they going to tax electricity for your Tesla if its coming from your home? Also what if you don’t have an electric car in your driveway are they still going to tax your ass off?
Sort of makes you think?

—————————————

Does your house generate electricity? Because mine doesn’t and I get an electric bill every month complete with HST and carbon taxes.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 10:12 pm

#71 Dr V on 04.07.21 at 9:00 pm
Crypto…hmmmm….

What is it ultimately supposed to do? Replace currency?
With an ultimately limited supply? That wont work.

Why does everyone give us value in dollars? Isn’t that irrelevant? Give it in Teslas, or bushels of wheat,
ounces of gold (or pot) so we know the ‘true’ value.
—————–
Yeah,
Maybe go back to bartering.
At least then we only “buy” what we really need.

#82 Doug in London on 04.07.21 at 10:18 pm

@TerziogluTerritory, post #4:
Wow, what you posted looks like something I would say as that’s what I did. While this blog post is informative it omits 2 points namely 1) go on a blitz of buying when stocks and equity ETFs are on sale and 2) the ONLY time you should run up margin debt is to buy assets when they are on sale. Now is definitely not the time to run up margin debt when stocks are high.

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 10:26 pm

#55 Flop
California fires
———–
That’s why the Americans need our water.
As I said before, let’s finish the pipelines.
Water is the new oil.

#84 Elon Fanboy on 04.07.21 at 10:42 pm

#21 JB….” How the hell are they going to tax electricity for your Tesla if its coming from your home? Also what if you don’t have an electric car in your driveway are they still going to tax your ass off?”

Saskatchewan is way ahead of you.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-government-to-roll-out-150-tax-for-passenger-electric-vehicles-1.5977554

Elon won’t be pleased.

#85 Russ on 04.07.21 at 10:47 pm

TurnerNation on 04.07.21 at 4:24 pm

Why the Daily changes and 1001 new laws? In 2020 this went into hyperdrive. The reason is this WW3 is for our Minds.
Time-tested tactics employed – cancel culture:

Lockdownism, the ideology that now dominates public life, is no different. One of its central elements is forgetting the past, including the very recent past. Before 2020, nobody spoke about ‘lockdown’, ‘social distancing’, ‘the R-rate’, ‘self-isolation’ and so on. Yet we now talk about these concepts as though they have existed for decades – almost as though they are immutable facts about how we have always dealt with infectious disease, rather than a series of ideas dreamed up on the spur of the moment and imposed in a panic…”
———————————————–

#57 Brian on 04.07.21 at 7:01 pm
….
“The one world governments back and support with taxes.
Oh, and the one you can buy stuff with and actually use.” – Garth
===========================

Heads up TurnerNation.

Garth is coming around. Here he agrees with the reality of The One World Government…

Glad to help. Cheers, R

#86 the Jaguar on 04.07.21 at 10:59 pm

@#174 Job#1 on 04.07.21 at 2:14 pm +++++++++
You wolf in sheep’s clothing. Stop playing possum.
+++++++++++++
OTTAWA ─ April 6, 2021 ─ Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions
Today, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced the unwinding of the temporary increase to the covered bond limit, effective immediately. One year ago, OSFI introduced extraordinary regulatory adjustments to support the financial and operational resilience of federally regulated financial institutions (FRFIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. (TRANSLATION: ‘ PARTY IS OVER’!)

April 7, 2021
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will resume its policy work on the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages by issuing a new consultation on Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 12:00 noon (ET).
On January 24, 2020, OSFI indicated that it was reviewing the benchmark rate (or floor) used for qualifying uninsured mortgages. This consultation was suspended on March 13, 2020 in response to challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. (TRANSLATION: QUALIFYING RATE ACCIDENTALLY VACCINATED WITH VIAGARA INSTEAD OF THE PFIZER COVID VACCINE. PASSENGERS ARE ADVISED TO RETURN TO THEIR SEAT ASSIGNMENTS AND FASTEN SEAT BELTS. PREPARE FOR TURBULENCE.)

Why does the Ray Price tune ‘ Heartaches by the Number’ keep rolling around in my head?

Here it is for those who appreciate the true classics of the modern age…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzHtx8TXwfM

#87 There's only 21 Million on 04.07.21 at 11:02 pm

Do you really want to miss out on the first digital decentralized monetary asset ? What will ypu say when the first central bank starts buying Bitcoin ? hmmmm …

#88 the Jaguar on 04.07.21 at 11:05 pm

Or maybe this is best song to accompany the mayhem?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phCX0E8avxs

oh oh…

#89 AM in MN on 04.07.21 at 11:09 pm

#57 Brian on 04.07.21 at 7:01 pm

OK, so BTC, absolute limited supply vs Fiat with printing presses running overtime and M2 supply going hyperbolic. Which do you think will be worth more in the future?

The one world governments back and support with taxes. Oh, and the one you can buy stuff with and actually use. – Garth

———————————————————-

Garth, what makes you think any western government can cover the money printed and spent this year with taxes collected? Where does the Govt. of Canada go to collect C$400B extra for this year?

The issue with BTC as I have explained before is that it IS being used for monetized functions, and that is only going to grow.

It’s complicated but the best Fintech’s are developing layers on top of bitcoin, like a bank issuing private currency and loans but they need to be backed by actual gold in the vault. But unlike a bank with gold in a vault, it can’t be seized by a government agency, granting one of the biggest protections of wealth needed today!

Thus, any of these institutions engaging in these functions need to have a stash of BTC behind them in order for it to work. As this business grows, but the BTC supply doesn’t….well, you know, that supply and demand thing.

Even when the transactions of money transfer or matching lender and borrower take just seconds, or fractions of, the underlying BTC needs to be there because there is no “bank” in the traditional sense to have custody of ownership during the transaction.

BTC has now moved to a longer term value play. It will take a while if you’re looking for 10X returns, but there are now a multitude of Fintech start-ups that will provide early stage investors that and more…or crash and burn, with plenty of scams to go around.

The underlying network is so huge that can’t be replicated, not by the biggest banks or central banks, not for many years into the future, assuming they would even try. It isn’t going away, it isn’t going to zero. Buy and hold, even if it takes a 50% dip, hold and you will be rewarded.

#90 Tom from Mississauga on 04.07.21 at 11:27 pm

So Sinan, been putting a couple well investigated but speculative small cap stocks (CUB, GIII, HOT.UN) in TFSA. These should go non-reg? Just my small/mid cap ETF goes TFSA?

#91 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? To Pay For His Xmas Turks + Caicos Holiday on 04.07.21 at 11:41 pm

Re: #67 Km on 04.07.21 at 8:13 pm
Everyone should pay taxes.
===============
I was alluding to I calculated my starting to pay taxes last year on income about $10k more, and now I find that they are taxing income that is ~$10k less. Can’t estimate and plan the tax I’m going to pay when all these surprises happen.
Gotta pay for those trips that Greedeau doesn’t have to claim as taxable benefits, but I’m sure you do! He probably writes the vacation cost off his taxes also, because you know, the Laurentian Elite won’t be auditing HIS taxes.

#92 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? To Pay For Triple Notices! on 04.08.21 at 12:04 am

How come I received 3 notices from Statscan, spaced a week apart, asking me to complete a not mandatory “Survey on Accessibilty in Federal Sector Organizations”. Talk about a waste of tax dollars. I guess they have to spend their allotment or they lose it.
I wonder how many taxpayers received 3 or more notices?

#93 SoggyShorts on 04.08.21 at 2:40 am

#8 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.07.21 at 3:01 pm

6) People still seek financial advice with their life savings from strangers on a free blog. Score: At a loss for words mmmm is this real ? Please do yourself a favor, get a financial advisor or checkout the Couch Potato Portfolio, heck even going with Wealth Simple or Tangerine Funds is better then first option.At least you can see actual historical returns.

**********************
To be fair, the creator of couch potatoes and even Garth&crew are “strangers on the internet”. Yes, they have credentials (well Garth does, I’ve never checked Dan) but if you spend enough time looking at other blogs you can find “professional” advice that points in any direction you want.

I consider this blog is top-tier because it’s
1. not monetized,
2. moderate, and
3. ab-tastic.
The focus is on balance, not getting rich quickly.

earlyretirementnow.com is a little more appropriate for the FIRE community, but there’s definitely some cross-over and almost anyone would be better off reading both.

As for the advice that any of us anonymous random strangers give: as long as it’s not specific e.g. ” “Buy this stock” but rather a general “Keep it balanced, and diversify” etc. then there’s no harm in reading it.
Even the advice I gave earlier to chopstix was for less concentration in a single stock and to consider placing the last ~10% into a huge index fund that both ERN and Garth+ have said has a solid outlook.

Anyway, my point is that it’s hard to get good data, and even hiring a pro can turn out very badly:
Mine gauged me for ~3%+ transaction fees while giving zero returns over the few years I had him.
So the more information the better.

Finally, you do see the irony in you (an internet stranger) giving people the advice to read couch potato or get a Robo, while simultaneously telling them they shouldn’t take your advice, right?

#94 Do we have all the facts on 04.08.21 at 7:00 am

Price of many North American stocks included within exchange traded funds have become disconnected from their earnings. As ETF’s became increasingly popular the volume of new investment capital was the primary reason why the value stocks within North American ETF’s increased. By the end of 2020 the average price to earnings ratio of stocks included within the S&P 500 for example was nudging 30.

For comparison the average price to earnings ration of stocks within a number of popular emerging market ETFs
in January 2021 was only 21. As a result the amount of new capital being invested in emerging market ETFs in 2021 has skyrocket .

Will the recent popularity of emerging market ETFs reduce investment in North American ETFs and result in a reduction in price to earnings ratios to reflect the actual intrinsic value of stocks within the funds?

#95 Love_The_Cottage on 04.08.21 at 8:32 am

#82 Doug in London on 04.07.21 at 10:18 pm
go on a blitz of buying when stocks and equity ETFs are on sale and 2) the ONLY time you should run up margin debt is to buy assets when they are on sale.
________
Wow. Brilliant. And you can tell exactly when they are on sale and when you should sell? Good job Kreskin.

#96 LTC resident and JAYS fan on 04.08.21 at 8:51 am

17 Old Ron on 04.07.21 at 4:11 pm
# 1 Turner Nation

I out of every 1,622 Canadians has died from Covid. Nothing you mentioned compares to that.

If you went to a Sold Out Jays game at Rogers Centre and 30 fans died, that would be huge
news. That is the ratio we are talking about.

Yes because the JAYS GAME IS PACKED WITH 80+ years old. That is all they do, the wrinklies, they leave the LTCs every week to go out to a Jays game, then straight to a pub and then to a party.

CRITICAL THINKING IS SO HARD FOR THE AVERAGE CANADIAN LEMMING..

#97 Phylis on 04.08.21 at 9:27 am

#87 There’s only 21 Million on 04.07.21 at 11:02 pm
Do you really want to miss out on the first digital decentralized monetary asset ? What will ypu say when the first central bank starts buying Bitcoin ?
Xxxxxxx
How many satoshi’s is that?

#98 Sail Away on 04.08.21 at 9:49 am

#95 Love_The_Cottage on 04.08.21 at 8:32 am
#82 Doug in London on 04.07.21 at 10:18 pm

go on a blitz of buying when stocks and equity ETFs are on sale and 2) the ONLY time you should run up margin debt is to buy assets when they are on sale.

———–

Wow. Brilliant. And you can tell exactly when they are on sale and when you should sell? Good job Kreskin.

———–

I can vouch that Doug was indeed saying BUY in March and April 2020. And now he’s saying stocks are high… meaning, consider selling or at least rebalance.

Solid, provable archived information. Not everyone gives this. The ones who do deserve recognition.

#99 Dharma Bum on 04.08.21 at 10:16 am

The gouvernment, at all levels, displays their incompetence through their inability to plan, organize, and implement a system requiring the slightest bit of logistical coordination.
It’s scary.
Imagine if we actually had a serious problem that required the coordinated mobilization of people and equipment.
We are sitting ducks.
This whole escapade has exposed our underlying weakness.
So many Canadians are also such compliant gullible ninnies.
It is refreshing to see how Albertans have a bit more rebellious spirit than Ontarians.
Unfortunately, they’re getting partially locked down as of Friday afternoon.
A lot of places don’t automatically and blindly comply, though.
It’s a bit like Texas.

#100 Alberta Nomad on 04.08.21 at 10:16 am

I have been wondering how the people $200 away from insolvency have been doing — guess it has started to spike recently…

https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-canadians-on-brink-of-insolvency-at-five-year-high-survey-finds-as-pandemic-hardship-finally-hits-home/wcm/dc6841e2-a35c-43ab-8b1e-84b72600b38f/amp/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

#101 Doug in London on 04.08.21 at 10:33 am

@Love_The_cottage, post #95:
Stocks are on sale when you see a big drop in price like in March of last year. I couldn’t believe the DIRT CHEAP prices I saw back then. As for when to sell, I sold some in late summer and fall, enough to pay off margin debt. I sold off a bit more early this year when the exhuberance was high. For now I’m not buying or selling but watching the dividends roll in. When interest rates go up I may move more into bond funds.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.08.21 at 10:34 am

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.21 at 9:48 pm
@#73 Ponzirellie’s Papa
“Mostly fisherman, know for their colorful lanquage.
The rest of the Germans make fun of them.”
+++

Did they speak Cantonese or Mandarin…?
—————-
Yes

#103 Lawrence Birrelli on 04.08.21 at 10:39 am

https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-avoid-travel-to-canada-even-if-youre-vaccinatedDo

Canada is a Level 4 danger. Let’s put that in perspective. Afghanistan shares Level 4 status with Canada. Yet, not a single media outlet in Canada has reported this shocking occurrence reported in every international media.

Is this a cover up? Shouldn’t Canadians know of the danger.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.21 at 10:51 am

@#96 LTC Resident
“CRITICAL THINKING IS SO HARD FOR THE AVERAGE CANADIAN LEMMING”

++++

Especially when someone is yelling………

#105 Job#1 on 04.08.21 at 11:02 am

#86 the Jaguar

Please don’t take offence, -certainly none intended- as I repeat the phrase “there’s more ways than one to skin a cat”.
Most commenters have opined that overt budget measures to quell RE insanity won’t fly politically for Christia in the upcoming budget. What better way for gov. to deflect blame and criticism than to rely on the arms-length “bank cop” to do what needs to be done.
I guess in an hour or so we’ll see what OSFI deems necessary to protect the banks from themselves. Perhaps cue the wailing RE cartel players just offstage.
The party may not be completely over yet, but the janitor is just about to turn the the bright lights back on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJthTSCYJ7g

#106 Flop... on 04.08.21 at 11:09 am

Pilatus on 04.07.21 at 10:26 pm
#55 Flop
California fires
———–
That’s why the Americans need our water.
As I said before, let’s finish the pipelines.
Water is the new oil.

////////////////////

Hey Henry, thanks,I guess.

You’re recking what’s left of my creds.

It’s never good when the guy currently in the blog sin bin is the only person to reply to your post…

M46BC

#107 FriedEggs on 04.08.21 at 11:12 am

Why didnt you worry about the ’30 Jays fans’ that died from the flu in 2019? Or 2018? Or 2017? The 6″ covid19 testing swabs have scraped the cranium plates a bit too hard in some cases.

#108 Chris Serran on 04.08.21 at 12:34 pm

“Until you have achieved a portfolio that will be able to provide a pension-like income stream for several decades most should not even consider investing in individual securities. This takes time and the earlier you start and invest in tax-advantaged accounts the sooner you will achieve your financial goals.”

Or, you could buy a diversified group of individual securities that are stable within those tax-advantaged accounts. You guys always equate buying stocks with extreme things like gamestop. Lots of good stocks that can be bought and held. That’s been my strategy and it’s worked pretty well.

#109 Job#1 on 04.08.21 at 2:31 pm

Latest news announced today by OSFI re uninsured mortgage stress test:

https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/in-ai/Pages/b20-let.aspx
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
“Proposal

The qualifying rate for all uninsured mortgages should be the greater of the mortgage contractual rate plus 200 basis points or 5.25 percent.”
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
“Next Steps

OSFI will communicate final amendments and its intended approach to the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages in Guideline B-20 by May 24, 2021, with a coming into force date of June 1, 2021.”

There will be some serious gnashing of teeth…

#110 Tanya Tate on 04.08.21 at 10:06 pm

So why doesn’t everyone with money in the bank get a 300% raise in the value of their bank deposits paid by the Bank of Canada, since they printed $5billion a week out of thin air and the Bank of Canada now owns 40% of all Canadian bonds out there. By the way, they can increase the CDIC deposit insurance coverage to $300,000 as well.

So this way, a 2.0% to 2.25% GIC rate on $100,000 can now be magically increased to $300,000, tax free of coarse by the Bank of Canada and it is like a 6% to 6.75% GIC rate on the original $100,000 GIC. Sounds good to me. What is good for the goose is good for the Gander.

Do they think people where born yesterday. This is so much government, command economy, communist, socialist, central planning it is so apparent, in our face, it is such a joke, laughable.