Soon we get a budget. Don’t expect pretty. Red ink to the horizon. All will blame Covid.
Fine. We get it. Pandemics are rare and hideously costly. But they also pass, as this one will. However some things don’t pass, and are far more consequential.
Like age. Currently Canada is sliding into a demographic crapstorm which will have a bigger effect than any virus and impact everyone. Our insane, unhealthy, addictive obsession with real estate is just making it worse.
Here are the facts. You should remember these.
What’s the single biggest thing the feds spend money on? Old people’s pogey. Annually the OAS costs $56 billion. There are 6.5 million oldsters, which is about 15% of the population. But age is unstoppable. In a decade and a half the wrinklie cohort will be massively larger. So OAS is on the way to over $100 billion by 2030. Ouch.
There’s more. Even without a slimy little virus, health care is the biggest expenditure of the provinces, at $180 billion. Guess how much of that is spent on people over 65 – just 15% of the population? Almost half. And it’s about to go through the roof with the aging wave.
Conclusion: governments don’t have this kind of money. And they can’t get it, either. Total federal revenues are now $320 billion and even with robust population growth that might increase in 15 years to $370 billion. Increased OAS alone will suck all that up – and health care transfers will explode. In short, this is utterly unsustainable – without major spending cuts and tax increases.
What to cut? Transfers to provinces for health care? CPP and OAS payments? Child care? Military? Already we’re in serious deficit, with a bloating debt. We can’t stop servicing a trillion-dollar debt. And it seems there’s zero appetite among Canadians to see government support wither or to face broad-based tax increases. Clearly ‘taxing the rich’ or diddling with the ranks of public workers will do nothing to stem this tsunami of need.
But there’s more.
Two-thirds of Canadians have no company pension plan. Of those who do, a minority will see defined benefits and most are stuck in glorified, mutual fund-based, low-T, group RRSPs. And speaking of registered retirement plans, only a quarter of people contribute anything. Together we’ve used less than 20% of the allowed contribution room. Close to half of all working Canadians have zero RRSPs. And no pension. In fact among Boomers who so have savings, the average is just $178,000 – enough to blow through in five or six years.
Let’s summarize. Pension plans are disappearing. Personal retirement savings are scant. Half of us have nothing. And there’s no way OAS or health care needs can be publicly financed in as little as ten years. In fact governments are coming out of Covid crippled by historic levels of deficit and debt.
This is a demographic time bomb. If you’re in your 50s it means don’t count on OAS in retirement. Expect rationed health care and LTC fees, in your eighties, of ten grand a month. And did I mention life expectancy? No? Well, it’s going up. Most people should count on having to finance at least 20 years after a work income ends. Women, more.
Why aren’t we talking about this in our national life? If millions are people are heading for a retirement disaster and expecting support that will bankrupt every other generation, how can this not be a political topic? Hello, Erin and Justin? What’s the plan, boys?
If you think the political class will wake up to the irreversible, unstoppable and inevitable demographic crush heading our way, cool. Carry on. Put all your net worth into one inflated asset, buy a cottage and a quad, save nothing, borrow big, don’t take advantage of tax shelters, don’t invest in assets that will pay you an income and wait for the government cheques.
But if you understand the threat, welcome to reality. You’re on your own.
Except for me. Stay tuned.
About the picture: “As you have mentioned,” says Andrew, “each day with our dogs is a gift. Bandit at 15 years lived a long life for a Chow. Maiyen lived to 16, but Kaedo encountered health problems and her life was cut short. Both of our Songshi-Quan’s are long gone yet never forgotten. Would love to see you use this image in your blog.”
187 comments ↓
#103 Cici on 04.01.21 at 7:48 pm
“And although lockdowns suck, I’m pretty sure they’re the best and fastest way outta this mess until the majority of us have been jabbed”
Cici tell us more about the scientific studies you are using here. You seem pretty sure. Why we cannot sit on a patio and eat anywhere in Ontario, it’s just too dangerous. Why all small business must be closed. But I can hop a flight to Vancouver tomorrow???
Cici you have the floor on this issue; over to you.
—– The economic engines of Kanada are shut down. BC, ON, QC. Tourism is banned; downtown hotels are turned into Homeless camps in Toronto; the Holiday Inn Oshawa is now a CV Kamp. Airport hotels in the major cities are now kamps for the retuning citizens. Same in all the Former First World Countries.
Atlantic Kanada and the USA border is under a virtual Berlin wall. Wartime curfews abound. But this is not an economic reset! Or a war.
…………….
— Some evidence against the current Economic Locdowns in Kanada.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/good-health/2021/03/31/whitmer-says-michigan-plans-to-combat-rising-covid-cases-with-masks-vaccines-not-new-restrictions/
.No more lockdowns – Britain will treat Covid like flu, says Chris Whitty (msn.com)
.Finland withdraws COVID lockdown plan after it was deemed unconstitutional (reuters.com)
.Restaurants and small businesses demand compensation as Ontario lockdown enacted (ottawa.citynews.ca)
– Flip what our leaders tell us 180 degrees – to make sense.
.Ottawa’s top doctor hopes upcoming COVID-19 shutdown could be the last one (globalnews.ca)
– Oh boy the bankers want us fighting each other. If they increase the supply chain shortages then yeah.
.Pandemic sharpens inequalities, could fuel unrest, IMF warns. (news.yahoo.com)
———————-
———————-
TLT.US bond ETF making some night moves. By the light of the dashboard. (Mixing mets here. Over to you Bob Seguer)
From Stocktwits:
“$TLT
Only two other times has TLT [has traded] over 4million [volume] in a month, “Black Monday” August 2011, and the Covid crash of March 2020…..
Oh, and last month.”
Hello, Erin and Justin? What’s the plan, Girls?
Thats easy…Print more money.
Only option left.
The kids are moving back home complete with marriages and babies. Intergenerational living. The Boomers are living longer and unable to cash out big and then downsize into anything cheaper and remain in their current communities. Fewer houses being turned over. Increased health spending on Home care. Average ages admitted to LTC increasing to early 80yrs up from late 70yrs. Where are the new affordable houses being built?
Let me get this correct. Be responsible and take care of my future income needs. Work hard and invest my income to secure my future. But what if the government comes for it since we’re on the wrong side of the majority?
UNDER ATTACK !!! – Capitol Hill – D.C.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/02/politics/us-capitol-incident/index.html
Shootings and vehicle ram!
That was a great blog Garth.
You know, I saw this day coming a long, long time ago. Made sure I would be able to weather it even if Gov Canada made pension cuts or dismantled OAS.
Back then I told my friends the day would come using all the arguments you made today Garth and to prepare…they all just laughed at me.
Mind you, I didn’t think a pandemic would trigger the day but here we are anyways.
Google says:
“Canada is home to more people over the age of 65 than those 15 and under. Boomers make up 27% of the population…”
Still, that’s a large voting block, wrinklies come out in force to vote and OAS is a sacred Cdn cow.
—————
I do not envy the country’s politicians in the years to come, no, not one single bit.
I envy even less Canada’s outnumbered youth that will have to shoulder the tax burden.
Can’t worry about deficit. Nobody cares. It’s more than obvious. Hell QE has gone global. And all the excess shows up as inflation in prices. It’s a matter of political will, to turn the switch off on the party. Other than that it’s ALL FUD.
Why worry about the retirement crisis, when if you’re young your retirement plan is to die in the climate wars?
Might as well buy a giant home, save nothing, and live the dream so long as the dream exists at all.
I will put this article up for a bit of Easter reading content.
I’ve seen the numbers bandied about for the pandemics, so I guess it was good to see it in this format that overall we’re going alright.
My fave though was the last visualization, that being the world’s population in 3D.
Not surprisingly large swathes of North America are largely untouched.
I zoomed in on the Oceania region and could make out Australia’s eastern seaboard and could even see Tasmania hanging off its bum like a sheep dag…
M46BC
————————————————-
“What is a sheep dag?
Originally a word meaning the dried faeces left dangling from the wool on a sheep’s rear end, the word dag is more commonly used in colloquial Australian English to refer to someone’s unfashionable, often eccentric or idiosyncratic style or demeanor together with poor social skills and amusing manner.”
5 Visualizations We Wish We Had Published in March 2020.
The World’s Deadliest Pandemics.
Start-up Funding by Industry: 2019 vs. 2020
Lockdowns Help Ease Covid-19 Death Toll From January Peak
World’s Biggest Data Breaches and Hacks
Map: A Look at World Population Density in 3D.
https://howmuch.net/articles/visualization-we-wish-we-had-published-march-2021
Re OAS:
The year with the highest number of births in Canada all time was 1961 – they will get OAS in 2026. Will one of the highest immigration rates in the world defuse the demographic time bomb? I doubt it.
Our immigration is 1% of the population. Without that our public finances would be more unsustainable, earlier. – Garth
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
The solution seems pretty simple to me. We need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that everyone deserves to be a Methuselah. Over the age of 65? You get palliative care, nothing more.
Huge jobs beat in the US. Close to a mil. Lets see what rates do when markets open.
I have saved and put off trips to invest
Now I have some large capital gains on investment
Everyone I know does “2 big trips a year” which is equivalent to everything I invest that year
So with the new taxes coming down the pipe I will need to pay the cash equivalents of “two big trips a year” to the government. But no such bill for my friends who had quality family time but no savings.
Sounds fair ….. (“fair share”)
#90 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 6:46 pm
“The good news is that it means WWIII is over without a bomb being dropped. China won. The America worker lost. By the end of the Biden term we will probably see that the China victory was total. After that they will take Taiwan, because it will be clear that the US won’t have the resources to intervene. From that point on they will be the world’s sole superpower. Sometimes patience is the best strategy.”
———————————————–
Decline is a choice; the US elite establishment has been on a “looting” expedition of their own country for 30 years. Once the threat of Soviet Communism was gone the race to get as much as they could was on.
“The inner rot of all empires is very, very slow and quite insidious. Usually, the military ceases being a citizen’s obligation and becomes a mercenary operation that is increasingly expensive and increasingly useless for defense, good only for looting distant provinces or neighbors while the core of the empire rots away. The tipping point isn’t military spending overhead. The tipping point is up at the top: do the elites see the empire as a road to personal wealth? When they decide this, they go on an internal looting expedition, cutting their own taxes while increasing taxes on the lower classes. Rome did this, Spain did this and the UK did this. All empires do this.” – Niall Ferguson
Not a Thucydides Trap instead with Biden the “Thirty Tryants” are back in charge and China has won.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-thirty-tyrants
I suspect there will be a “crisis” at some point where the US miscalculates, shoots its weapons and realizes it can’t produce anymore in a reasonable timeframe. Whereas China replaces its losses without losing a beat. The US allies acknowledge a new hegemon is in town and the US goes into a European like stupor.
‘There’s more. Even without a slimy little virus, health care is the biggest expenditure of the provinces, at $180 billion. Guess how much of that is spent on people over 65 – just 15% of the population? Almost half.’
Don’t worry, im sure they will find a good way to reduce that costly expenditure.
#1 TurnerNation on 04.02.21 at 1:59 pm
#103 Cici on 04.01.21 at 7:48 pm
“And although lockdowns suck, I’m pretty sure they’re the best and fastest way outta this mess until the majority of us have been jabbed”
Cici tell us more about the scientific studies you are using here. You seem pretty sure. Why we cannot sit on a patio and eat anywhere in Ontario, it’s just too dangerous.
Not Cici, but this question is less about the scientific evidence than altruism vs. selfishness. Sure you can sit on a patio, quite safely. Who’s going to serve you your beer and wings? Who’s going to cook them in a crowded restaurant kitchen? Who’s going to deliver the restaurant supplied? Who’s going to work in the food prep/packaging company.
Love how people question the science behind why they can’t do exactly what they want, without considering the supply and service chain that enables your freedom to do so. People sitting on patios aren’t the one’s disproportionately affected by Covid contagion, it’s those workers behind the scenes ending up in ICUs currently. Give your head a shake… everybody needs to be kept safe until we all can be.
The simple solution seems to be to tax all the housing wealth created by government policy. Perhaps explaining to voters these taxes are needed to fund your healthcare and pensions. Otherwise you’ll end up paying a lot more in the long term in health care costs and lost pension income.
No problem to fix
-simply use the inevitable weekend emergency parliamentary sessions to pass radical tax grabs including taxing “speculative” gains in a registered plan as income the year the security was sold
-claim any TFSA was holding “speculative “ investments and tax it at 100%
-tell Tiff to print a lot moar. Stiffed by Tiff will be a common phrase among the masses soon
-increase HST by 3-4%
-reduce OAS clawback from about 78 k down to 50 k
-increase probate taxes up to 15-20% above 500 k
– cut health care down so that only core treatments for basic care is covered
-pass the planned primary residence tax – first 3-400 k is tax free but above that you pay capital gains
-eliminate interest deduction for all rental properties
All this does is buy time but could get us into the mid 2030s by muddling through
Don’t expect fairness
It will be theft on a scale never before seen
Your RRSPs and TFSAs and LIRAs will eventually be fair game if you’re over 100k value
Standard fare for broke governments
#12 Bob on 04.02.21 at 2:29 pm
The solution seems pretty simple to me. We need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that everyone deserves to be a Methuselah. Over the age of 65? You get palliative care, nothing more.
—————————————-
Let me guess Bob…you’re under 65 right?
Heard it all before :
No health care if you smoke
No health care if you are obese
No health care if you do drugs
No health care if you ski
No health health care if you….anything!
Maybe you’re right, no health care for anyone; everyone pays their own way.
You too Bob!
Major spending cuts …Yes
Major tax increases …don’t see how.
With 80% in the lower wealth divide and of those, support payment savers or WFH savings that will get spent notwithstanding… reportedly living pay cheque to pay cheque and with all of today’s expenses factored in – the tax saturation point is near. Very near.
Forget bumping up taxes on the rich…they will for the most part be offset on the poor through higher prices already rising on everything now as it is.
And just waiting for our first house showing as I write this. We get it.
DEBT JUBILEE B*TCHEZ
THIS, is Toronto.
They will either cut welfare or freeze it while giving the developers and the realtors tax breaks to build more condos for corrupt politicians.
It need not be so! Not in Canada. We have the third most proven oil reserves of any other country in the world.
We should immediately free ourselves from the mass hypnosis of green energy which is nether green nor energetic. The world will need what we have for many decades to come.
When the hopelessness of powering modern civilization with rarefied, expensive, and unreliable energy sources becomes shockingly apparent, the world will come knocking. We should be ready. And we could be ready. But not as long as childish airheads run our government and trample on our energy independence.
As a bonus, we also excel at nuclear energy and have lots of uranium (as well as thorium, which is also usable as a nuclear fuel). There can be no doubt that will be the next step after decriminalization, which must certainly come.
If the scenario Garth predicts comes to pass it won’t be because of demographics. It will be due to rampant stupidity on the part of cowardly, foolish politicians and those who elect them.
Here’s BlogDog123’s plan as Canada’s benevolent dictator to deal with the upcoming tsunami of costs:
1. Up the first and 2nd federal tax brackets. Sorry, we’re all in this together, including lower-middle-class folks. Close some loopholes where some don’t pay any taxes net of benefits.
2. OAS clawback happens sooner. I know: good thing I’m dictator as Erin and Mr. Socks don’t have the stomach to propose this radioactive idea.
3. OAS eligible at 67, instead of 65. Thx Harper for that good idea.
4. Various benefits like the age amount credit, etc… moved back a few years encouraging people to work longer.
5. Generous pensions clawback legislation, sorry we paid you too much so you gotta give some back.
6. Cut the official languages act or departments that simply cost money in bloated government headcount.
7. Gut those interprovincial trade barriers like alcohol across borders, professions working in other jurisdictions, insanity trying to transport goods by truck across provinces… Get rid of that costly protectionism.
8. Massive import of skilled immigrants to increase the tax base. Of a certain age where they’ll be most productive and in highest tax brackets.
9. Limit the definition of ‘universal healthcare’. No free MRIs, expensive therapies or drugs. Deal with it.
10. Lots of user fees and tolls offset by less federal transfers. Suck it up.
As benevolent dictator I won’t be popular, but I’ll take a bite out of some of the pending fiscal doom.
Seems like this issue is beyond the next election so it’s a non topic, plus the young don’t look that far either. This is a major issue with our society.
Happy Easter
Thanks for the blog Garth
So just to be clear when you went to ottawa, unclear if you carried the debt clock, excuse the pun, or had it delivered. My point is no one listen to you then and no one listens now.
It’s very sad.
Perhaps we need a new political system instead of all this infighting and promises to get re-elected we need an all MPs government that agrees to a 25 year plan for Canada that is sensible and does the right thing for the greater good of the country. With no debt.
Nah we will fix it when the wheel falls off.
The only way I see Garth is that you take it upon yourself to set up some form of seminar run by volunteers in every school and community, to educate the people on personal finances and then about government debt crisis.
Sign me up and I will be happy to teach in my community.
All the best
I am curious on one point how did Churchill give the people hope in their darkest hour?
#17 D C on 04.02.21 at 2:51 pm
“People sitting on patios aren’t the one’s disproportionately affected by Covid contagion, it’s those workers behind the scenes ending up in ICUs currently.”
Do you have some numbers, facts, links to back this up?
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
——–
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
“You’re on your own.
Except for me. Stay tuned.”- GT
What does ‘except for me’, mean?
Are you running, GT?
Wasn’t ‘The journey continues..’ a Dorothy quote?
Mercy.
My body my choice. Make euthanasia legal for all, period.
Freedom First
No worries.
I understand the second coming of the “roaring twenties” is upon us.
Put on your red shoes.
Let’s dance.
CPP is the universal DB pension plan for Canadians. I for one would resist any attempts to reduce, claw back or redistribute CPP benefits. Ditto for my workplace pension plan. Like CPP it is a condition of employment (mandatory). Unlike CPP, workplace pension contributions result in a ‘pension adjustment’ which reduces the amount one can contribute to an RRSP. The adjustment is the amount of employee paid contributions for the tax year. Lets just say my partners RRSP is significantly higher than mine. Better still, it isn’t being targeted (as yet) by those whose mantra appears to be ‘if I can’t have it, nobody should’.
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
Seems COVID was the perfect solution. Well, somebody had to say it.
Conclusion: governments don’t have this kind of money.
__________________________________
Very true, … but same issue made me think, many moons ago, with no avail. However, the other day, I just run into following, … it’s very much U.S.-centric, but still, perhaps of interest?
The trillion-dollar woman
A conversation with the economist Stephanie Kelton about the “deficit myth,” Modern Monetary Theory for dummies, and why the age of capital may finally be ending
https://the.ink/p/stephaniekelton
Snip: … think about these four things: A household, a business, state and local governments, and the federal government. The first three share something important in common: none of them can issue the U.S. dollar. In order to spend, they must first come up with the money.
The federal government is completely different. It has the sole legal authority to issue the currency. Biden was right! Article 1, Section 8, of the U.S. Constitution enshrined that power. Unlike the rest of us, the federal government can spend money it doesn’t have. New dollars are created every time the federal government spends.
Anyway, … I really don’t know how extensively germane is the above to our situation up north, … but still, a worth of ponder. Fwiw.
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
The answer is more social acceptance of death as a choice.
Home suicide kits, and ‘passing parties’ will be the future.
Welcome to the legacy of 40 years of Paleo Boomer Conservatism.
Mulroney, Harris, Harper, Kenney, Ford, Moe and so many more.
Sweet deals for the wealthy, to hell with everyone else. Rinse and repeat.
Idiots who have put right wing ideology ahead of fiscal common sense.
At least Garth tried to stand up to Harper.
I can’t think of any current Boomer Cons with a backbone, unfortunately.
This is a demographic time bomb. If you’re in your 50s it means don’t count on OAS in retirement. Expect rationed health care and LTC fees, in your eighties, of ten grand a month. And did I mention life expectancy? No? Well, it’s going up. Most people should count on having to finance at least 20 years after a work income ends. Women, more.
Why aren’t we talking about this in our national life? If millions are people are heading for a retirement disaster and expecting support that will bankrupt every other generation, how can this not be a political topic? Hello, Erin and Justin? What’s the plan, boys?
the plan is to present themselves as likeable images who share the aspirations and values of some ideal middle class. The real decisions will be made behind the scenes.
If central banks can print trillions and trillions out of thin air to make billionaires, corporations and corrupt banks even more obscenely wealthy, while skyrocketing the cost of living for the rest of us and obliterating small business, surely they can print a fraction of that to support things that actually matter like quality of life and healthcare. Maybe raise interest rates so savers wouldn’t be strong armed into overpaying for housing and investing in the stock markets that resemble rigged Vegas casinos. Imagine that.
Don’t forget that the destruction of the nuclear family by radical feminism, wokeism and central banks creating astonishing compound inflation since their inception, has ruined any notion of natural and germane population growth in western nations. This has necessitated the mass immigration we see today. No such population and demographic problems from the countries that new Canadians are currently coming from.
It took 2 pennies or less in 1913 (coincidentally the same year the Fed was created) to buy what a dollar buys today. The average worker does not earn 50+ times in 2021 to compensate. The western women today who want to raise large families with their husbands simply cannot and are forced to work due to the crushing cost of living and are also brow beaten by bitter feminist Bettys who find it unacceptable that some women would love to be stay at home mothers and caregivers. Women should have a choice without economic or social coercion. As the father of an 11 month old daughter, I hope and pray she has this choice without shame or submission, 25 years from now.
I remember a Canada where many couples had large families, schools and parks were filled with children and everyone easily afforded it on one salary. Our moms and sisters were free to pursue any profession if they chose to and couldn’t be happier.
Those times are long gone. Our youth has to be birthed elsewhere and imported.
Canada truly produces nothing and deserves the same.
I pity your daughter. – Garth
It may be sunny, but it’s too cold to come to cottage country.
STAY AWAY, YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS FROM THE GTA!!
Just.
Stay.
Home.
#17 DC
You have failed to present any argument, only unsubstantiated supposition. Why should anyone believe you? Here’s a bit of trivia:
Newspaper article about 3-4 weeks ago, stated that a total of 106 cases were traced back to retail in Ontario since pandemic start in 2020. This included employees who spent their workdays in close proximity to each other. Fewer than 0.1% of all cases in Ontario.
I would rather people based their opinions/policies on facts and science. You have provided neither.
I think the income levels to receive ‘full’ OAS benefits are too generous. They could be reduced by 1/3 & most Canadians would still receive the full benefit in retirement. As for increasing the age when OAS applies, I was on board with that, if for no other reason than putting off the day when I’d officially be designated as ‘old’:)
Our financial planner told us not to expect to be able to collect OAS in retirement several years ago. We adjusted our financial plans to account for that scenario. Yes, it is a nice benefit but my take is, if you ‘have’ to receive OAS in order to be able to retire, retirement is probably not your best option financially.
@#26 BlogDog123 on 04.02.21 at 3:09 pm
Here’s BlogDog123’s plan as Canada’s benevolent dictator to deal with the upcoming tsunami of costs:
1. Up the first and 2nd federal tax brackets. Sorry, we’re all in this together, including lower-middle-class folks. Close some loopholes where some don’t pay any taxes net of benefits.
2. OAS clawback happens sooner. I know: good thing I’m dictator as Erin and Mr. Socks don’t have the stomach to propose this radioactive idea.
3. OAS eligible at 67, instead of 65. Thx Harper for that good idea.
4. Various benefits like the age amount credit, etc… moved back a few years encouraging people to work longer.
5. Generous pensions clawback legislation, sorry we paid you too much so you gotta give some back.
6. Cut the official languages act or departments that simply cost money in bloated government headcount.
7. Gut those interprovincial trade barriers like alcohol across borders, professions working in other jurisdictions, insanity trying to transport goods by truck across provinces… Get rid of that costly protectionism.
8. Massive import of skilled immigrants to increase the tax base. Of a certain age where they’ll be most productive and in highest tax brackets.
9. Limit the definition of ‘universal healthcare’. No free MRIs, expensive therapies or drugs. Deal with it.
10. Lots of user fees and tolls offset by less federal transfers. Suck it up.
As benevolent dictator I won’t be popular, but I’ll take a bite out of some of the pending fiscal doom.
–
or how ’bout we make the BIG corps actually pay their taxes and get rid of the loopholes that let them evade?
Next up we could drastically lower all the subsidies they get. Its about time we end this privatize the profits and socialize the losses nonsense.
Taxing the middle class more is just lazy and not a solution.
“Why aren’t we talking about this in our national life?”
Same reason why we’re don’t talk about extremely poor countries, forest fires in ‘Lungs of the Earth’, climate change, human trafficking…middle class 1st Worlders don’t give a rat’s a$$ and are more concerned with Youtube and HGTV, skimpy clothing and making sure their appearance of wealth is at least as good as their peers…Breath!!…than being human.
Eye opening post, Garth.
Og
#31 the Jaguar on 04.02.21 at 3:26 pm
“You’re on your own.
Except for me. Stay tuned.”- GT
What does ‘except for me’, mean?
Are you running, GT?
Wasn’t ‘The journey continues..’ a Dorothy quote?
Mercy.
***************
If that’s the case…I volunteer to help.
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
———-
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
———-
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
———-
Yes. Please share so we can verify. Otherwise it didn’t happen..
Just try to cut OAS.
NDP wins the election.
They will choose the press till they can’t. Simple. No productivity and no path to it now. The debt has a stranglehold on everything. Feel like we just get more fractured from here on in.
We had the best country in the world. With hard working smart people.
The dogs in the pic have an amazing strong and insightful gaze.
Correction re #17 DC
Meant to type 3-4 months ago…
Here’s the article:
https://torontosun.com/opinion/furey-retail-sector-makes-up-less-than-0-1-of-ontario-cases-says-new-data
Trudeau and Christy will just kick the can down the road, get out with their bloated pensions and benefits and let someone else take the load.
Well. With upcoming turmoil, this country might need me more than ever! Our exit parachute is fully prepped, but if unrest is nigh it might be worth sticking around since unrest always brings opportunity. Hmmm. Ear to the ground…
I love the peoples suggestions of cutting back generous pensions( they are in my opinion not that generous considering that people are forced to put in 10%+ of their own money throughout their working career, yes the employer matches, mine does the same).
Also claw back OAS, next it will be CPP claw backs, and people expect that after all these reductions that there will be anything left to tax as probate since that average 178k will get burnt through rather rapidly.
Do not forget that smart estate planning will see more assets transferred to family before retirement homes and or passing away.
The only asset that people have now really is housing and if that goes down watch what happens to our finances then as it is the only thing keep our population, economy and government afloat now.
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
******************
Have you ever driven anything less than a full 4×4 in an Alberta winter?
Enjoy your Prius or whatever in the ditch.
Damifino It need not be so! Not in Canada. We have the third biggest, proven oil reserves of any country in the world.
We should free ourselves from the mass hypnosis of green energy which is nether green nor energetic. The world will need what we have for many decades to come.
When the hopelessness of powering modern civilization with rarefied, expensive, and unreliable energy sources becomes shockingly apparent, the world will come knocking. We should be ready. And we could be ready. But not as long as childish airheads run our government and trample on our energy independence.
As a bonus, we also excel at nuclear energy and have lots of uranium (as well as thorium, which is also usable as a nuclear fuel). There can be no doubt that will be the next step after decriminalization, which must certainly come.
Peak oil is the idea that every barrel of new oil discovered costs more than the last barrel – which it does. We should be ready and we could be ready but we have to discard green energy because it’s unrealistic and elitist.
#167 Squire on 03.28.21 at 10:21 pm
#106 FreeBird on 03.28.21 at 5:06 pm
Cutting Indian news segment on JT. If only our media could be this honest:
https://youtu.be/tB9vacrJE2U
————————————-
Ha ! Best post of the night
It is obvious our media protects sock boy.
——————
Belated agreed. Seems we have no true independent media. Our loss. Politicians gain. Go Canada.
#16 FriedEggs on 04.02.21 at 2:50 pm
“There’s more. Even without a slimy little virus, health care is the biggest expenditure of the provinces, at $180 billion. Guess how much of that is spent on people over 65 – just 15% of the population? Almost half.’
Don’t worry, im sure they will find a good way to reduce that costly expenditure”.
This can definitely get cheap….. Look at the health services provided by Fr. Muller Hospitals in Mangalore, India and the cost of their health check-up services (1CAD=58.35 INR): https://fathermuller.edu.in/frmullerhospital/health-checkup.php
Scroll down and look at the General Health Checkup cost in the bulletin (INR 2,250). At 58.35INR per CAD this checkup costs less than CAD 40. And for 40CAD they provide:
Blood – Hb, TC, DC, ESR, PSV, MCHC, MCV, RBC, Platelet count,
Blood Grouping and Typing, Kidney Profile – Blood Urea, Creatinine,
Blood Sugar – RBS, PPBS, Lipid Profile, Urine Examination – Routine and Microscopy,
Chest X-ray, ECG, Ultrasound Abdomen, Complete Physical Examination by Physician.
Plus, a doctor tells you if there is anything wrong with your health and what needs to be done…..
Note: Father Muller is a world class institution in India. The tools and equipment they use for all these services are globally sourced. Plus their doctors are equally good. You may have seen them all over US and in Canada.
Now compare this cost against what we pay in Canada
Where are you getting the 10K / month LTC cost?
Old people….bad.
Young people….bad.
All people in between 45 and 47….good…
M46BC
Retirement is over rated. I have worked now for 58 years and plan to work as long as I can be hired. Lots of travel experiences. Household net worth over $5 million, without the house value. High school drop out, who just likes to work. Why do people want, and expect a free ride?
My one big break in life is that I am healthy. Or am I healthy because I work ?
Take Sir Garth. He no doubt could buy out anyone who reads his blog. But Garth is still working. A healthy horse is a working horse. Period !
#35 Ponzious Pilatus
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
That would affect your precious evs, as they are far heavier than equivalent ice vehicles. Teslas burn through tires because of their heavy battery weight. There is a new concept fully electric Jeep Wrangler, but weighs almost 1500 lbs heavier than the gas version. It’s not east being green.
LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.
Price private homes now, specifically for dementia folks. Public spaces will simply not be available to meet the demand in future. – Garth
An American friend once told me.. “The only thing you REALLY need to invest in is guns”.
Voting is pointless. Politicians are puppets.
#45 KLNR on 04.02.21 at 4:20 pm
…how ’bout we make the BIG corps actually pay their taxes and get rid of the loopholes that let them evade?
Next up we could drastically lower all the subsidies they get. Its about time we end this privatize the profits and socialize the losses nonsense.
———–
??
Please explain in detail… unless, of course, you are regurgitating outraged and uninformed (or worse- deliberately misleading!) bafflegab.
I can verify that my corps fully pay all taxes due. Corporations pay their taxes, because it is, like, the law. What are you talking about?
#44 Linda on 04.02.21 at 4:15 pm
I think the income levels to receive ‘full’ OAS benefits are too generous. They could be reduced by 1/3 & most Canadians would still receive the full benefit in retirement. As for increasing the age when OAS applies, I was on board with that, if for no other reason than putting off the day when I’d officially be designated as ‘old’:)
Our financial planner told us not to expect to be able to collect OAS in retirement several years ago. We adjusted our financial plans to account for that scenario. Yes, it is a nice benefit but my take is, if you ‘have’ to receive OAS in order to be able to retire, retirement is probably not your best option financially.
—————
Good comment. Also not counting on OAS. I know some who get it and prob shouldn’t from net worth but ‘income’ qualifies – just. It’s legal. Ethical? Tightening rules to help ensure only those who really need it qualify is more effecient use of tax revenue. Will govt use saved money effectively/for our benefit and not as adult children of the govt? Let’s LOL on that.
O’Toole’s priority seems to be pandering to a certain small demographic helping them figure out which public bathroom to use.
@#64 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 5:02 pm
#45 KLNR on 04.02.21 at 4:20 pm
…how ’bout we make the BIG corps actually pay their taxes and get rid of the loopholes that let them evade?
Next up we could drastically lower all the subsidies they get. Its about time we end this privatize the profits and socialize the losses nonsense.
———–
??
Please explain in detail… unless, of course, you are regurgitating outraged and uninformed (or worse- deliberately misleading!) bafflegab.
I can verify that my corps fully pay all taxes due. Corporations pay their taxes, because it is, like, the law. What are you talking about?
–
It’s well know that Big corps continue to evade paying taxes. You seem like a relatively smart guy, look it up.
Quit being triggered all the time, not good for your bp.
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
———
Soggy, Cowpaddy Paddyboy is just adding 0.05% on whatever I indicate for a particular day. Paddyboy doesn’t have original thought and just leeches on to anything that looks like success. I do laugh at his meatbag idiocy though.
I’ve given hints before as to my allocation. I guess nobody pays attention. Their loss, not mine. Here’s another hint though, just because it’s you. Go look at VGRO. Ask yourself, what’s the largest allocation in it? Considering where things are, is it really the right place to be when every Tom, Dick and Paddyboy are throwing their money into that? As well as doctors and taxi (Uber/Lyft) drivers? What happens when something has been so gorged? In hindsight, was it such a smart place to be now that it’s April 2nd and the steam is being let out? Especially when commodities were/are so so so dirt cheap. If that’s the case, where would you rather be to take advantage with that same allocation?
Also, I’m going to respond to VGRO and chill. This is going to be funny.
Yeah…and the youth of today are going to pay for old folks tomorrow…good luck on that one.
I still have 20 cents of the first buck I ever made…and every buck thereafter. My Nana (a bank teller for 40 years) lived through the depression and would’ve boxed my ears otherwise.
#62 Lee on 04.02.21 at 4:50 pm
LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.
Price private homes now, specifically for dementia folks. Public spaces will simply not be available to meet the demand in future. – Garth
————————
In Ont most LTC homes are private. Cost for dementia/full medical assisted care can be up to $5K per month (sml standard private room). Wait for both private and public in some areas up to 2 yrs. Home care used to bridge. CCACs coordinate public funded home care which often isn’t enough to cover needs for dementia or palliative care but to supplement is private pay at ~$50-60/hr. It’s not a stretch to say private care may cost $10K (or more) per month esp for assisted medical care as for Alzheimers/dementia which are specially trained and equipped. Again this isn’t for a posh private residence or room. Research it online and in your area.
A lesson in history,
Why did the Roman Empire fall?
No children causing a reliance on immigration was a factor. Like our neighbours to the south, we need immigrants. Why no children? They were considered a burden to self satisfaction. North America looks sure to collapse from within also.
And the way to handle an ageing population? Look at our new MAID laws. Once an old person is no longer useful, (read “burden) societal pressure will encourage a shorter retirement. Look at Holland.
It’s possible our government is looking 30 years ahead rather than 30 days.
Here is the truth! Do not save one cent! The govt WILL take your money and give it to the a**holes who saved nothing. That doesn’t fit with Garth’s narrative, but it’s true. Unless you bury your wealth in the ground, it will be taxed away.
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
——–
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
———
SPY? How pedestrian. How’s EQL on the TSX doing?
And no, I don’t own EQL. Just wanted to show there are many ways to skin a cat. Will I get a retort from Felix for that one?
By the way, are you a doctor or a taxi driver? Just curious.
Oh, and this is for Soggy. 65/35 allocation.
Trojan House on 04.02.21 at 3:21 pm
#17 D C on 04.02.21 at 2:51 pm
“People sitting on patios aren’t the one’s disproportionately affected by Covid contagion, it’s those workers behind the scenes ending up in ICUs currently.”
Do you have some numbers, facts, links to back this up?
#17 DC
You have failed to present any argument, only unsubstantiated supposition. Why should anyone believe you? Here’s a bit of trivia:
Newspaper article about 3-4 weeks ago, stated that a total of 106 cases were traced back to retail in Ontario since pandemic start in 2020. This included employees who spent their workdays in close proximity to each other. Fewer than 0.1% of all cases in Ontario.
I would rather people based their opinions/policies on facts and science. You have provided neither.
There was a doctor from one of the ICU,s in Toronto on CTV news last night talking about this same subject.
He says that the people he sees in hospital ICU,s are workers from the factories, large distribution centres and the like.
Because they have no sick leave they are forced to go to work spreading the virus futher
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
———-
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
———-
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
———-
Yes. Please share so we can verify. Otherwise it didn’t happen..
———
Like your existence matters. It only matters in my brokerage account. I do enjoy you grinding your teeth over it though. Anyone else having grinding issues?
#58 earthboundmisfit on 04.02.21 at 4:46 pm
Where are you getting the 10K / month LTC cost?
**************
It’s TRUE, my spouse is a caregiver in LTC in a for profit residence, mostly on the independent living side. She provides care from an outside agency. Some clients pay about 8 grand a month for their suite, and then pay the outside agency on top of that for homecare at their suite at about $45 an hour for a few hours every day. Her clients don’t mind telling her how much they are paying for the suite and the agency on top of that. They even show her their bills.
That’s one of the things I think about when I get older and need care and how I’m going to pay it.
Hopefully my spouse sticks around when I get old.
#42 Cottagers, you slimy little pathogen from the woods. Stay home and don’t come here, it’s too cold for you and you know that.
#62 Lee on 04.02.21 at 4:50 pm
LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.
—————-
I want to live where you do with no inflation and buying power outpaces it. The young (and older) best start planning. If only that advice was given more often. Oh wait…
Thanks for the read, tuning-in.
Government is too big, so colluded, and so entrenched, nothing short of a Revolution will change it. If that doesn’t happen, Bankruptcy is the only answer.
Seriously.
@#47 DON on 04.02.21 at 4:20 pm
He’s up to something, DON. The choice of Chow’s for todays post was no accident. It’s a ‘Chow Nation Call to Arms’ thing. You can’t fool a Jaguar.
Current MLA for Lunenburg is some LIB named Bernadette. By all appearances uninspiring. Bernadette’s got to go. Or could it be something else, i.e. Mark Furey announcement a few weeks ago that he will not seek re-election?
Oh, that Garth is a wily one. A little dangerous, but he’s well intentioned and has the creds. Not sure what we can do to help DON, given the distance and all……
But like you, I’m “all in”. I got an impressive resume of Clown Car driving. Stick shift, no less…..
Members of ‘Chow Nation’, UNITE!
There is no way government can play Santa Claus and buy votes anymore and statutory expenditures have to be repealed to enable debt repayment. Interest on debt get paid first, principle payments next , then government administration diplomacy and defense and that is about it.
No more borrowing. It will be nastier than the book death by deficit or the New Zealand bankruptcy of 1984+/-
Then we have the provincial governments. LOL
@#62 Lee.
“LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.”
+++
You are kidding right?
Step father is in LTC,
24/7 nursing care.
Meals.
$8800/month
Mother in LTC.
Apartment type living with 2 meals a day provided.
She cooks her own breakfast.
$4500/month.
And there’s a waiting list.
But if you understand the threat, welcome to reality. You’re on your own.
Except for me. Stay tuned. -Garth
Are you going to carve out a portion of NS and declare independence from Canada as the sovereign nation of Greaterfoolandia? Please invite loyal blogdogs to live in your common-sense nation. I’ve had enough of Photo-op Minister’s (PM) reluctance to do anything except offer empty platitudes/dance Bhangra.
@Job#1, @Trojan House
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/main-modes-transmission.html
Reports of outbreaks in settings with poor ventilation suggest that infectious aerosols were suspended in the air and that people inhaled the virus. These settings have included a choir practice, fitness classes, and restaurants.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-officials-update-covid-886-february-1-1.5896069
COVID-19 outbreak at Toronto meat plant linked to B117 variant, city says
https://twitter.com/drmwarner/status/1376614215830491136
Sometimes the transmission is not obvious at the retail level… think further up the supply chain.
I pity your daughter. – Garth
_____________________________________________
Wow, you criticize someone who wants choice for his daughter when shes an adult?
Some parents make the sacrifice of a 1 income family because they put their children first. Many families don’t have that choice anymore. You made your choice as others are allowed to make theirs.
Instilling choice is good. Breeding prejudice, not so much. – Garth
Sure hope none of this applies to us 40%ers. I’m afraid for the Millenials.
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 4:32 pm
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
******************
Have you ever driven anything less than a full 4×4 in an Alberta winter?
Enjoy your Prius or whatever in the ditch.
———————————————————-
I drive a 2008 Chevy Aveo with winter tires and it cuts through Alberta snow and ice awesome. Plus I get almost twice the gas mileage compared to my truck.
#68 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:16 pm
I’ve given hints before as to my allocation. I guess nobody pays attention.
+
Oh, and this is for Soggy. 65/35 allocation.
*****************
I have been trying to pay attention, I guess I was hoping for specifics.
I don’t really understand why you wouldn’t give the names of holdings since others trying to emulate your returns by buying them can only increase their value, but if you want to keep that secret, how about some vague details?
♦Do you own individual stocks, smaller ETFs, or big index ones? You’ve called SPY “pedestrian” so that makes me think the big index is out. Does that mean you have many holdings?
♦How many holdings are you using to achieve the D part of your B&D?
♦Have any of your holdings gone down this year as would be expected in most portfolios that have B?
Thanks!
BTW my PF is
68% S&P500
13% XIU
18% HTB
4.24% YTD not counting the divvies from Wednesday
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 4:32 pm
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
******************
Have you ever driven anything less than a full 4×4 in an Alberta winter?
Enjoy your Prius or whatever in the ditch.
———–
I have an Audi Quattro.
Best 4 wheel there is.
#88 Dude Looks Like A Lady on 04.02.21 at 6:23 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 4:32 pm
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
******************
Have you ever driven anything less than a full 4×4 in an Alberta winter?
Enjoy your Prius or whatever in the ditch.
———————————————————-
I drive a 2008 Chevy Aveo with winter tires and it cuts through Alberta snow and ice awesome. Plus I get almost twice the gas mileage compared to my truck.
*********************
Yeah, no way in hell am I getting my tools in there let alone a couple of sheets of plywood or camping gear.
My F-150 isn’t the greatest but it gets (all of) the jobs done.
#61 Handsome Ned on 04.02.21 at 4:48 pm
#35 Ponzious Pilatus
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
That would affect your precious evs, as they are far heavier than equivalent ice vehicles. Teslas burn through tires because of their heavy battery weight. There is a new concept fully electric Jeep Wrangler, but weighs almost 1500 lbs heavier than the gas version. It’s not east being green.
————-
What makes you think I prefer electric to gas?
Electric is just the lesser evil, and is the future
But both clog up the roads.
Tax them all by road usage and weight.
Seems to me Canada has a large chunk of the resources the world needs and will pay dearly for, yet our government is anti oil, forestry,agriculture and mining.
I would say we need to do what we’re good at, let Taiwan & China write apps for the iphone, we need to sell stuff.
So Garth, basically Canada is f#@cked. And don’t depend on the government for retirement cause they just ran out of money. Correct?
#90 PP. Disagree. I have a 92 diesel Lancruiser with front and rear factory locking hubs. I will pull you out when you get stuck.
#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.21 at 5:56 pm
@#62 Lee.
“LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.”
+++
You are kidding right?
Step father is in LTC,
24/7 nursing care.
Meals.
$8800/month
Mother in LTC.
Apartment type living with 2 meals a day provided.
She cooks her own breakfast.
$4500/month.
And there’s a waiting list.
—————-
You can afford it, buddy.
You are a millionaire.
I must say Garth, this blog has become well worth the admission. In the last month, or so, you are starting to get into real nuts and bolts of endemic economic/social catastrophe headed our way. Many on here squabble about “this generation” or “those people” but it is the entire makeup of our economy that looks over the cliff and into the abyss. My generation is angry (maybe justified, maybe not) that the boomers got to enjoy the party (they did) but, it is coming to an end for ALL of us.
“Hello, Erin and Justin? What’s the plan, boys?”
This is precisely the problem of our age. Democracy has become a joke. in our age, it’s own grotesque circus for public consumption. There is no substance, no forward thinking and no viable solution to the storm brewing in the very near future. Raise taxes all you want – Laffer already showed us the consequences of this, it will destroy everything in its wake, it already has. The Canadian Revenue Gestapo can come down all it wants – history shows us that the citizens will only find ways to “black market” their economic energy anyways. The Establishment loses twice.
It was poorly thought out in the 60’s and 70’s when politicians (in every western nation – though the Americans resisted for longer) promised “Government’s will look out for you” and won their seats of power resoundingly on pensions, welfare and free (everything). The boomers are responsible for this. This is fact. Financial Capitalism has failed.
Interested to see your plan Garth. Coups (as you’ve jested in past blogs), protests and other forms of civil unrest are toothless and, in fact, counter productive to progression. Ideas cannot be killed, they cannot be destroyed and they offer hope into the future – and this is what every successful revolution in history was based on. A changing of the guard, a changing of social organization and light into the darkness forward.
We need ideas. And as a man of stature in this country who sat in the throne of finances (you’ve seen the world behind the curtain) I think it would be an excellent start to hear from you on this.
I may only speak for myself but these entries are a valuable public service. Keep up the good work.
For anyone interested in Laffer’s study on fiscal policy, national tax rates and social consequences (someone send this link to Freeland, she really should have studied this rather than worry about Russia in the Ukraine) – this is essential reading for anyone who seeks to understand where Canada is currently headed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Laffer
These scientists could have saved themselves a lot of time and research if they had gone to any Divorce Court in Canada…
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/humans-and-other-mammals-have-the-potential-to-become-venomous-research-says
Two factors to consider when predicting LTC needs in the future:
Immigration:
The bulk of immigrants are now coming from Asia, who tend to look after their elderly at home.
New treatments for dementia:
There are some promising treatments in the pipeline.
Hands off my CPP and OAS. It may be time for the aging masses to mount a revolution.
#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am
I kind of like that revamped Ford Bronco.
Do any of the car buffs out there have an opinion on that?
//////////////
Wait another year or so for the Bronco, demand is high right now and with that prices too.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/02/march-real-estate-sales-vancouver-record/
lol…
Nice bedtime story right there Garth!
You are a hard rock baby sitter for the mob here, for sure!
Always count on the short-sighted (politicians, and the voters they pander to who are actually relatively few) to take the easiest solution. And that is the one that will (at least at first) be least observable to the masses – debase the currency.
Which brings us to MMT. What is it? At the risk of boring the audience away, MMT is simply an economic paradigm that asserts currency issuers (ie, big governments) are different from currency users (smaller governments, companies, schlubs like us) in that so long as the currency issuer has no debt denominated in another currency or tied to anything that doesn’t grow (like say gold), then the currency issuer isn’t bound by what we think of as accounting ‘rules’. They can just print money, and not only that, but this money is necessary for economic activity because people know they need it to pay taxes, so it’s actually a pre-requisite for government to print in order for economic activity to exist. Now MMTers aren’t stupid, they know about inflation, but they say if the printed money is spent on ‘idle’ resources or those things not being done by the private sector, then there’s little to no risk, and if it happens they can just raise taxes to put on the brakes. To them the economy is just a conveyor belt with boxes dropping off the end, and so long as enough money is put in people’s hands such that they can keep buying these boxes, the conveyor can keep running. The flaws here of course are legion: the idea that government-printed money ends up in someone’s hands to spend is just a tautology, and there’s no capital theory that describes how the means of production are created, renewed, and possibly consumed which would really leave us all impoverished. Wealth isn’t about money, it’s about being able to consume things that have long, roundabout production periods. Printing money would see those means of production consumed and would probably be a worse outcome than inflation.
I’ve come to believe that old age savings on a macro level doesn’t matter that much of course it matters on an individual level). Imagine a scenario where every Canadian saves a lot more (say 3x current levels), but overall productivity stays the same. It’ll just mean that these savings end up chasing the same resources, thus tripling prices without getting any more benefits. The real answer is since people live longer, they need to work longer.
I know what to do! Build wind turbines! That should take care of everything!
Seriously though, that is a sobering analysis. It appears that the future doesn’t pencil out. I think a lot of people knew that a long time ago, but we just kept kicking the can down the road.
——————————————-
I read something somewhere a long time ago where some psychologist had figured out why so many people don’t save for retirement. His conclusion was that when we imagine ourselves in 20 years, we don’t see that person as being ourselves. So it is literally like saving for someone else’s benefit. We don’t even really consider our younger selves to still be ourselves. It has something to do with consciousness being a real time phenomena. We experience life in the here and now, painful memories aside. Even in terms of memories, you don’t remember half of what you lived through (unless you are one of those cursed with a “photographic” memory). The brain basically drops anything mundane or un-useful and just keeps the important stuff. And in terms of saving, well the needs of today are always more pressing than the needs of tomorrow.
I think the people who do save for tomorrow suffer from a lack of creativity or an abundance of discipline when compared with the average person. For example, perhaps you grew up in a household with limited finances. When you get older an annual pilgrimage to Hawaii or a new car every 2 years might not cross your mind. Then, if you have some more success financially than your parents did, it might not cross your mind to buy quads and tear up the forests.
—————————————
A large part of the problem the government is facing was caused by demographic changes the actuaries did not anticipate, namely that life expectancy has gone way up. When CPP was conceived, 65 was pretty close to the average life expectancy of say 67. People generally wouldn’t be on OAS for long. Health care was expected to fix broken legs and cure infections, not extend people’s lives by 20 years at great expense. Heart transplants and cancer treatments weren’t a thing yet. People weren’t quite as hesitant to meet their maker in heaven as they are today. When someone used to die they “were in a better place, with Jesus in heaven”. Now it is a tragedy so we spend the better part of a fortune keeping them alive in an old age home watching TV and playing board games.
I suppose it is similar to other technology. 30 years ago I spent zero, not a penny, nothing on computers and cell phones, and $28 a month for a land line. Fast forward to today and the land line is redundant, nobody uses that anymore, but I am buying a new laptop it seems once a year for someone in the family, you can’t go to school without one anymore, cable TV and internet, and new phones every 2 years. Technology is great but this stuff costs money. Lots of money.
#4 Nat
That is a fair question; it is the billion dollar dilemma.. Either the generation/s fights for our/their rights or as others have pointed to, the outcome will not be good.
#9 Flop…
That was a very interesting link, scary but realistic, thanks.
#8 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 2:20 pm
“Why worry about the retirement crisis, when if you’re young your retirement plan is to die in the climate wars?”
—————————————-
“Why worry about the retirement crisis, when if you’re young your retirement plan is to die in the *resource wars?”
Fixed it for you.
Great post Garth. Thanks for the insightful, if sobering, discussion on something other than Covid. Sure, the current disease focus is important but nice to see someone recognizing the far greater challenges ahead for many people.
Garth, serious question for you. If you can answer it I would appreciate it but I will understand if you try and dodge it. How come you only talk about how overpriced houses are, but not stocks? If we look back 10 years ago, house prices have not even really doubled in Vancouver and Toronto. For instance, the average price for a Vancouver detached home was $1.1 million in Feb/2011 and today is $1.8 million. Now pick any big name stock in the S&P 500…. McDonalds…. Walmart…. Home Depot…… and they have all gone up way more. Home Depot was trading at $35 a share back in Feb/2011 and is now at $307. And even blue chip stocks like McDonalds and Walmart were trading, respectively, at $72 and $52 back in Feb/11. Flash foward 10 years later? They are trading at $225 and $135.
Bottom line: How come it is okay for stocks to go up 200 or 300%, or more, over a 10 year period, but not okay for housing to go up the same? Again we’re not talking about Tesla or other hyper inflated tech stocks here. Home Depot, Walmart and McDonalds are not fad stocks.
Thank you.
Because stocks are investment assets and residential real estate is accommodation. – Garth
Seem to remember New Zealand having a financial crisis triggered by the IMF a few decades ago (1984). Fire sale on Government departments, privatization, marketing boards gone etc.
Few more years with this cabal of financially incompetent Liberals the IMF will call out our spendthrift ways. Maybe that what PM Wonderful wants, someone else to make the tough decisions.
Anyone watching Corona-
tion Street on CBC?
Great show. Highly recommended if you never saw it.
nice topic but too archaic, lets talk about flooring, and bathroom renovations, and remodelling. its much more fun.
When we worked we saved and invested our money over many years. Retired now and have rented for over 20 years, but, have saved for a home somewhere one day at a price we can afford and live within our means. It pays to save. Where family members were buying expensive vehicles, homes and toys… and telling us how stressed they are about their debt. Sorry, not our problem. I hope T2 keeps away from people savings, OAS and CPP. T2 has a HUGE problem mounting in paying the debt off. If money is still being printed, and nothing backing it up … well you know!!!
Justin says don’t worry it will balance itself. Erin’s answer about everything is we need leadership. In other words hold onto to your shorts, tightly. None of the current crop hanging around Ottawa or thinking they are going there are going to do any of us any good. When the block guy blurts out more sensible things sometimes you know things are out of hand. The other two party leaders, Green & NDP, share the same kind of technicolour fantasies that would cost trillions more than what we already don’t have.
The underlying message of today’s blog is that we need to increase our immigration or start handing out Viagra and Cialis by the wheelbarrow full and eliminate all condoms. I get all of this but have you seen the price of lumber? Have you seen the price of housing? How can we increase Canada’s population all the while adhering to the increased expenses of the carbon taxes and environmental restrictions on development? Plus pay off Trudeau’s enormous borrowing.
Isn’t this why the Canadian population grows by 1% every year through immigration? Doesn’t the government right now have to work on more urgent matters than the ones that will happen in 10 years?
Bill C-7
The real gateway drug.
Imagine the scenarios all of which benefit both the individual and government that have not a pot to piss in.
(Logan’s Run on a voluntary basis)
Re#41,
$0.02 x50 = $1.00
We are wealthier now than in 1913
I too remember more children playing in the neighbourhood. But I think you are off a bit on the reasons.
Suggest you read “Why you think” by Glenn Sunshine
Anyone squeeze in that last patio pint of April today?
#15 Dogman01 on 04.02.21 at 2:43 pm
Interesting article. I’m not sure if it is a conspiracy theory or maybe it is just human nature to be so selfish. As the French say, “First me, then the deluge”.
Interesting how the article paints Trump as a defeated hero, sort of a Don Quixote character. While being Don Juan at the same time.
#89 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 6:26 pm
#68 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:16 pm
I’ve given hints before as to my allocation. I guess nobody pays attention.
+
Oh, and this is for Soggy. 65/35 allocation.
*****************
I have been trying to pay attention, I guess I was hoping for specifics.
I don’t really understand why you wouldn’t give the names of holdings since others trying to emulate your returns by buying them can only increase their value, but if you want to keep that secret, how about some vague details?
♦Do you own individual stocks, smaller ETFs, or big index ones? You’ve called SPY “pedestrian” so that makes me think the big index is out. Does that mean you have many holdings?
♦How many holdings are you using to achieve the D part of your B&D?
♦Have any of your holdings gone down this year as would be expected in most portfolios that have B?
Thanks!
BTW my PF is
68% S&P500
13% XIU
18% HTB
4.24% YTD not counting the divvies from Wednesday
———
Here’s the deal. I’m early retired. I do enjoy all the extra free time I have now not doing a 9-5 however I’ll make an exception if Garth will hire me to work for him. I’m not joking.
If you can convince him that I’m worth his time, I will take you on as a client regardless of your investment portfolio size. Together, we’ll review your goals, your risk tolerance and set up a plan to ensure your future financial success and review it on a regular basis. Going forward, you’ll have access to everything I know as my client.
That’s the deal.
#18 Anna on 04.02.21 at 2:52 pm
The simple solution seems to be to tax all the housing wealth created by government policy. Perhaps explaining to voters these taxes are needed to fund your healthcare and pensions. Otherwise you’ll end up paying a lot more in the long term in health care costs and lost pension income.
————————————–
Yes, a very simpleton solution indeed. Houses are not money until you sell.
#95,
Govt run Are $3,000 a month for single room. Private is a choice if you have money. You can spend $10000 a month now on private. If we run out of space in govt run facilities prices won’t go up based on demand otherwise it’s pointless. I agree we will prioritize elderly so money will have to be taken from other programs. Maybe we can get rid of the military like Singh wants.
#54 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 4:32 pm
I have been in Alberta since 1985. My cars have been a Ford Fiesta, a Civic hatchback and a Fit. I remember driving to Princess Auto only to be disappointed because they were closed – too much snow. If you need a giant 4×4 truck to deal with Alberta winter, you either live in the country (which is OK) or (statistically more likely) you live in town and you just don’t know how to drive (which is not OK.) Stop making excuses; city folks drive big trucks because it makes them feel good, not because they have to.
#32 Freedom First on 04.02.21 at 3:44 pm
My body my choice. Make euthanasia legal for all, period.
Freedom First
——————————–
Swallow a bottle of Fentanyl and you will find there are no legal ramifications, at least for you. Thousands are doing it. It is out of control, really.
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
—————————————-
They already do through gas taxes. Cheese and crackers, can’t you guys come up with any new ideas????
PS the all aluminum Ford EcoBoost F150 gets pretty good mileage, for as long as that tiny turbo engine lasts. So once again you are taxing yourself.
#85 DC
Since you draw a moral distinction between the “selfish” and the “altruistic”, to which group does an Amazon customer belong? Is it selfish to order online, knowing of the conditions in those warehouses? Should we shut down the online portals since keeping them open will spread the virus at the supply end?
I say keep the low-risk businesses open and spend gov. assistance $$ to improve working conditions. It doesn’t seem to occur to most people that there are choices other than just lockdown or Let-‘er-Rip. Just shows a poverty of imagination.
#1 TurnerNation
Cici tell us more about the scientific studies you are using here.
____________________________________________
Thanks for “giving” me the floor. Unfortunately, I’m not a medical expert, but if you want the opinions of our top doctors and infectious disease experts, who are waaaay smarter than I’ll ever be, and who have access to the most complete data (which is changing on a daily basis), ask them.
All I have access to is basic reasoning, logic and deduction. And I’m here on the ground in Québec City with this to say: this is our third wave, came just after an easing of restrictions following spring break. Our politicians buckled a bit under increasing public pressure despite warnings from the top medical experts, and within just over a week, our daily cases are rising exponentially (have pretty much been doubling over the past 7 or 8 days) and we’ve now hit a new record number of daily cases, but this time it’s mostly all extremely dangerous and contagious variants. Many young people are being admitted into ICU, and while deaths haven’t ballooned sharply yet, the REAL experts are warning they’ll be ramping up within the next few weeks.
This is the same pattern that we saw with the last two waves and lockdown/easing scenarios. So the reasonable conclusions that I’ve come to are a) this thing is very contagious b) it’s variants are even more so, and more deadly too c) we are nowhere near herd immunity in terms of the vaccination rollout d) every time we ease restrictions, daily cases rise and the variants along with them e) every single time we go into lockdown, the case numbers start coming down and those who have contracted the illness get better treatment f) the healthcare system is already under enormous pressure as are healthcare workers. They are already risking so much for us, maybe we should be doing our best to help them get the situation under control.
In a nutshell, our last lockdown was very effective, so much so that there was undue public pressure to take the foot off the breaks. The easing came with warnings and recommendations to continue respecting sanitary guidelines and social distancing. The majority of us plebes decided that COVID was no longer a thing and threw caution to the wind, to the point of ignoring most of the measures. So now here we are, going back to a stricter lockdown in an effort to get the situation under control rapidly before it spirals.
It’s like Garth said, you can’t suck and blow at the same time. The virus doesn’t care what we think, it will do what it damned well wants.
I don’t want pain or suffering for any businesses or for my fellow plebes. I also don’t want to be stuck in my living room punching away on a keyboard everyday anymore than anyone else does either. I think everyone, from politicians to regular folks, want things to get back to normal.
But I’ve come to a pretty reasonable conclusion that for that to happen, we’re all going to have to abstain for a little longer. First we need to bring the variant case numbers down (not surprisingly, most of the variants were brought into the country by travellers whose infections were so recent that they evaded the mandatory tests administered prior to air travel), and have been spreading like wildfire since the restrictions were lifted. Then, we all need to get vaxed ASAP and ensure that the innoculations are effective against the most deadly variants (S. African, Brazilian, etc.). If not, we will need to continue monitoring our borders and testing all people entering the country, whether returning travellers or new visitors, and improve the testing methodologies until the entire world is vaxed and the vaxes are effective against every strain.
To me it’s obvious that if this thing continues to run rampant and we have to continue with more waves and more easing/restriction scenarios, this thing is going to cost us more and take longer to sort out.
I’m hoping that from now until summer, we can find new creative ways to keep businesses running safely (at Ikea curbside pickup today, despite store being closed: worker wheels cart to curb then leaves me to put everything in my car myself and to put the cart away myself = win-win…they make a sale, I get my stuff, worker isn’t taking unnecessary risks or having to do ridiculous manual labour).
Hopefully come summer the case numbers will have dropped significantly, many of us will be vaxed, we can start participating in organized activities (but probably only in small numbers), and dining outside on patios again.
If we’re all inocculated by the end of summer, and the situation is improving in the rest of the world too, we can start reopening on a greater scale, start welcoming tourists with necessary precautions and start really getting back to normal.
But if they ICUs are full and we’re still far from herd immunity, that just isn’t going to happen.
OK, sorry for boring everyone to sleep. This is my longest and most boring post ever. Don’t blame me though, I was “given the floor” ;-)
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
@#95 Prepared Parents
“You can afford it, buddy.
You are a millionaire.”
++++
Glad to know you care.
As much as I’m willing ( and able) to help…
They have enough money set aside to keep them going until they reach 108…
#103 JacqueShellacque on 04.02.21 at 7:13 pm
I haven’t studied the theory but what comes to mind with mmt is why wouldn’t we extrapolate and say the government no longer needs to collect taxes? Why do they need to take the money back?
Well the boomers definitely are the gifted generation for most things, they will even get the last of the free health care. I am just glad my Mom will get the help she needs until the end. It is what it is so plan accordingly.
I read an article a few years ago that, Boomers, who shaped so many movements in our post war world may also lead in end-of-life matters. Bill C-7 which is our legislation for medically assisted dying is about to expand the parameters for end-of life situations re: assisted dying.
Maybe Boomers, and others will have in the future, the opportunity to escape the ravages of the cruelest aspects of aging by having more say as to when their lives are complete?
And with that, a most crude byproduct: They and society escape the expense of aging. (?)
Dystopian thoughts, perhaps. I don’t like to think about it, but it crosses the mind.
Such low interest in the savings account!
The annual interest rate in my Scotia Bank ‘Money Master’ Savings account is 0.010%… 0.010%!
How is that even called an ‘Interest Rate’? It’s a disgrace.
The monthly fee on the checking account is 16.95 CAD(!)
Better not save any money in the bank at trust Garth with it….
Cheers
#75 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:28 pm
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
———-
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
———–
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
———–
Yes. Please share so we can verify. Otherwise it didn’t happen..
———–
Like your existence matters. It only matters in my brokerage account. I do enjoy you grinding your teeth over it though. Anyone else having grinding issues?
———–
Stone, let me start by saying I think you’re lying again.
Next, this is the way it’s done if you want to claim anything:
1. On Jan 4 I posted the following buys: NNO.V, TRP, CHP.UN. As of yesterday, with dividends, the YTD return was +10.2%.
2. On Mar 5, I posted a buy of VUS. It was +5.90 Friday.
3. A few days ago, I posted a buy of TSLA at 604. Friday it was +9.6%.
Prove it or stay quiet. I personally don’t believe you.
Hey Soggy shorts I have lived all across Canada and in the mountains, my little mazda did just fine in Alberta even my 20 year old toyota hatchback did just fine on my long hauls in the winter through the passes. Unless you need a truck to haul stuff for your job on a regular basis a car works just fine with a great set of winter tires. Keep telling yourself that though, especially when you need to fill up that thirsty expensive tank. LMAO.
#129 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 04.02.21 at 8:44 pm
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
…
What kind of blog is it??? Beats me from commentary
Hey Turnernation,
Add Four Points in Hamilton to the list of hotels turned into homeless shelters.
Oh Dog! You know it’s gonna be a bad day when TurnerNation is first up to bat!
#62 Garth…
We can afford LTC if we leverage our vast oil/LNG reserves like Norway. And people realize the fact that the real, honest science concludes that CO2 will only have a minor impact on our climate, and we need only focus on adaptation where needed (weather is NOT getting worse, if you look at the real data).
Sorry Gramps everyone I know would like more kids however it costs too damn much in Canada. So smart people have less kids to give them more instead of popping a crap load out and not being able to support them. Sadly globalization meant well paying jobs went to over seas countries who pay way less however the high taxes remain here and now crazy cost of living. Anyone having more than a few kids if any at all have to consider all of this before they do. To blame it on not being able to satisfy all their base needs is why most have less or any is frankly just ridiculous and sad.
Hello, Erin and Justin? What’s the plan, boys?
__________________
noun. a comic performer, as in a circus, theatrical production, or the like, who wears an outlandish costume and makeup and entertains by pantomiming common situations or actions in exaggerated or ridiculous fashion, by juggling or tumbling, etc. a person who acts like a clown; comedian; joker; buffoon; jester.
#129 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 04.02.21 at 8:44 pm
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
……………………………..
Isn’t there a vaccine for that?
Here is a rational recent discussion of the real science…
https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/03/20/watch-former-obama-biden-federal-scientist-dr-steve-koonin-declares-his-climate-dissent-served-as-former-energy-dept-undersecretary/
Maxed out TFSA, RRSP. Selling the silver and going into lead and copper aggregate.
Boomers just take take take and will go for their last call crippling the younger generation. They see their net worth in real estate as a result of hard work and wise investment when it is largely attributed to progressively lowered interest rates over 40 years, along with mass immigration and decreased community home building to keep supply tight. So now millennials have to buyout this overpriced real estate, pay for their health care, and fund their oas and cpp.
> What’s the single biggest thing the feds spend money on? Old people’s pogey. Annually the OAS costs $56 billion.
Option 1: Let COVID run it’s course and resolve the situation naturally.
Option 2: Legalize fentanyl and prostitution – let boomers go out like rock stars and give the younger generation a needed cash infusion
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.21 at 3:53 pm
I’d recommend road tolls based on vehicle weight.
F-150.
Tax them hard and often.
—
I would wote for that in a heart beat. All cars empty.
model 3
3500 — 3800 lbs
model S
4300 — 5000 lbs
model X
5000 — 5500 lbs
Honda civic
2750 — 2850 lbs
F150
4000 — 5600 lbs
I am thing investing i asphalt, paving, concrete, steal and suspension parts companies is way to go.
#121 Stone on 04.02.21 at 8:06 pm
Here’s the deal. I’m early retired. I do enjoy all the extra free time I have now not doing a 9-5 however I’ll make an exception if Garth will hire me to work for him. I’m not joking.
————
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a rule on which they are in complete agreement: never work with an a-hole.
Don’t know if Garth has something similar.
#121 Stone on 04.02.21 at 8:06 pm
If you can convince him that I’m worth his time, I will take you on as a client regardless of your investment portfolio size. Together, we’ll review your goals, your risk tolerance and set up a plan to ensure your future financial success and review it on a regular basis. Going forward, you’ll have access to everything I know as my client.
……
I doubt your head would fit through the door at Garth’s office.
#135 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 9:39 pm
#75 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:28 pm
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
———-
Would you mind sharing your weightings?
@Stone, I think you’re up 9%+ too, no? Mind sharing yours?
I can’t seem to even make a theoretical hind-sight B&D that good this year
———–
Probably BS. SPY is only up 6.35% YTD.
———–
Yes. Please share so we can verify. Otherwise it didn’t happen..
———–
Like your existence matters. It only matters in my brokerage account. I do enjoy you grinding your teeth over it though. Anyone else having grinding issues?
———–
Stone, let me start by saying I think you’re lying again.
Next, this is the way it’s done if you want to claim anything:
1. On Jan 4 I posted the following buys: NNO.V, TRP, CHP.UN. As of yesterday, with dividends, the YTD return was +10.2%.
2. On Mar 5, I posted a buy of VUS. It was +5.90 Friday.
3. A few days ago, I posted a buy of TSLA at 604. Friday it was +9.6%.
Prove it or stay quiet. I personally don’t believe you.
———
Prove it or stay quiet?
Make me.
In the meantime, keep grinding those teeth. Soon enough, you won’t have any left. Just like your hair.
QE-MMT = inflation. Doubt any politician would cut OAS/entitlements, but the COLA factor will probably drop ever further behind rising-real inflation – eroding purchasing power over time. Vicious cycle as GDP growth will also suffer with an aging population. https://cssndrafinancialfinance.wpcomstaging.com/avoiding-the-u-s-debt-crisis-inflation-debt-jubilee-fed-liabilities-mmt/
Canadian Govt do not want to do anything for first time home buyers.
They are greedy to collect TAXES and money from the immigrants.
Lots and lots of free land in Canada but they do not want to build new houses for new immigrants, resulting in insane prices of houses. So that they can increase property TAXES.
Get student visa within 1 month, but wait for 5 to 10 years or may be more to sponsor your old and needy parents in this country.
How can people live in Canada with $14 min. wage ???
People came here for a better life or just to pay Mortgages and slumlord rents ???
Never come to Canada if you are getting food in your country.
Nowadays Canada means nothing but a SCAM.
LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.
Price private homes now, specifically for dementia folks.
…..
FIL passed away a few years ago, dementia well developed. Had the cash for the best care in Toront when needed. 10k a month is bang on.
Mercifully by this point the stay is usually not too long.
I would hate to burden family members once my mind is long gone , thankfully the easy solution is keep pounding the smokes like nobody’s business.
May as well have some fun on the way out!
Maybe a one asset retirement strategy can come through. The wrinkles sell their houses to the millennials who fund their retirement, which takes them 25+ years to pay off. Almost like paying into a retirement plan. If the gov’t counted real estate equity against OAS, CCP, and GIS, a retiree holding a million dollar house would receive zip. A big chunk of the problem solved.
This KLNR guy is most detestable. Always the ad hominem attacks on us doggies struggling for a voice. Its scary enough getting enough nerve to post something read by thousands that doesn’t make you feel stupid when you read it back. KLNR’s slimy attacks; Don’t be triggered, don’t get your blood pressure up, don’t play the victim. ad nauseum. All with the narcissistic air of a Jim Acosta. Lets leave the disciplining up to Grouchy(its an act) Garth. A warning then a quick whack with the riding crop. Get in line or get lost. The matter is closed. KLNR’s sanctimonious sliming of our less than perfect posts? His arrogant “Im KLNR & your not” sneer. I’d like to tune this guy up on a dark night down on the waterfront. Actually, I’d never do anything like that. I’d let loose one of my crueller deckhands on him.
The government does not intend to pay off the debt. They have two solutions to dealing with the debt:
1. Inflate the debt away. If we come out of this pandemic into boom times, inflation will shrink the yearly payments into something manageable. If we don’t come out of this pandemic, or we don’t see boom times, then it’s option 2.
2. Default. But it won’t just be Canada defaulting, it will be most of the West defaulting. Most of the West has carried larger and larger debt loads with quite a few countries teetering on the precipice of insolvency. We will see the bad times that visit Venezuela and Argentina.
I think it will ultimately be option 2. No politician has the will to deal with the debt, to make the cuts in spending that is required, unless their voters want the debt dealt with. Canadians don’t want the debt eliminated, they want more free stuff.
Give us UBI, free health care, subsidized day care, free education, all the goodies we want but don’t hand us the bill.
Trudeau, by doubling the national debt in a year, has brought forward the deadline towards default. Instead of seeing this occur twenty years from now it will hit in the next few decade unless we see high inflation. And high inflation will bring it’s own miseries with it.
Garth, why reference Erin “ what’s the plan”? Trudeau is digging this hole all by himself. Last look had Justin at the helm and driving us into the storm instead of guiding us to safe harbor. Again, letting Justin skate by obfuscation and a conflated political reality, not cool. Conservatives have no control over Trudeaus actions, and right now from debt to deficit to Covid its all Trudeau, no one else.
And you’re right, there’s a shitstorm on the horizon no doubt, and nothings being done about it. The naive Liberals have sold themselves on the idea that MMT will ‘wish’ the debt away . That might be for national debts where the government creates money for itself without borrowing from global pension schemes, but you know it’s a zero sum game, pretty soon the international community won’t play without secure and egregious compensation. That means that internal economy keeps running on draining citizens savings to zero, while payment on imports becomes impossibly expensive because no one will give credit.
Justin was told “ the budget will balance itself” and he believed that. Except it’s not true, it’s a fallacy, based on the fallacy of global multilateral trade without borders or a national currency. Fairy dust. Justin jumped in, ever desperate to appear a front runner. Canada is also first on the climate file, and look how many millions of jobs we surrendered to China. Count the billions in revenue lost to Saudi Arabia. Balanced economy? More like a big fat thumb on the scale.
Now, am I suffering? No !! But that doesn’t mean I’ve turned my back on Canada. As an investor I’m finding an empty field to graze on north of 49. What a year, what a quarter, and if you’ve been hiding in an index or running from a media barrage of bad news you’ve really been missing out on a spectacular run of “ best of breed” individual equities.
As you know the TSE 300 only has 47 profitable companies. If you’re an index player you’re #34, the media is bragging about that. How can you blame politicians for a bad performance they say, when everything is going to hell? That my friends is the blanket of shame you choose to live under. In fact, the winners on the TSX are blazing hot. I own 57 equity issues btw. 3 ETF .
OK, I’ve been doing this a long time. I’m not a novice reading “The Wealthy Barber” for the first time. In fact, what was written in the 70’s belongs in the 70’s, it doesn’t apply today. Yet, the financial industry is based solely on your laziness and complacency. You should read everything to learn the basics, but you really need to learn to read a balance sheet above all.
I hate ‘ averaging’ returns , it’s lazy and a smidge dishonest. If I did I’m up 1000% in this year alone based on my last three month return of 83% on a portfolio 90% Maple, inter-listed, 29% energy, Beta 1-1. My “bonds” are proxy risk off and everything pays dividends.
Plenty to worry about in Canada, but investing opportunities is not one of them.
#129 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 04.02.21 at 8:44 pm
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
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All I know, shingles is a nasty disease.
They have a vaccine. 2 doses.
Recommend you get it.
#135 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 9:39 pm
#75 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:28 pm
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
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It is bad form to talk about religion, politics, penis size, or how much money you make at social gatherings.
#129 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 04.02.21 at 8:44 pm
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
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Awe, Garth, so harsh. You let the tractor and power tool conversations go on.
So DLAL, unless your house is a tear down stay away from asphalt. There are several options that will last longer than you do. More money, but it will be the last time you have to worry about it unless you get some wind damage, but that is usually just a fix not a new roof.
Sorry Garth for all the comments I made about tractors and power tools. And this one I guess.
#42 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.02.21 at 4:03 pm
You’re still alive? I sent every infected person I knew up to cottage country!
#133 Winterpeg on 04.02.21 at 9:32 pm
I read an article a few years ago that, Boomers, who shaped so many movements in our post war world may also lead in end-of-life matters. Bill C-7 which is our legislation for medically assisted dying is about to expand the parameters for end-of life situations re: assisted dying.
Maybe Boomers, and others will have in the future, the opportunity to escape the ravages of the cruelest aspects of aging by having more say as to when their lives are complete?
And with that, a most crude byproduct: They and society escape the expense of aging. (?)
Dystopian thoughts, perhaps. I don’t like to think about it, but it crosses the mind.
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Existential questions:
When does life begin, and when does it end.
Two difficult choices:
Letting the elderly waste away in suffering and pain, or should we help them go peacefully into the afterlife.
Take it out of the military budget. Canada doesn’t need a military, there is no longer any danger of America invading after Trümp and his nutcase minions have been put down for the forseeable. Of course, you’d have to deal with your own paranoid faction first….
Get rid of OAS or claw it back 100% at $50000 total household income. Simple. I’m sick of reading financial profile articles about loaded skinflints who are advised how to move heaven and earth just to avoid OAS clawback. It’s welfare that the relatively well to do don’t need or deserve.
So I’ve been looking to see what my buddies from Melbourne have been studying at the Australian Centre for Disease Control or AC/DC have been up to.
AC/DC recent findings into COVID pandemic and unanswered questions.
Who Made Flu?
Dirty Sneeze Done Dirt Cheap.
Flu Shook Me All Night Long.
Highway To Smell.
It’s A Long Way To Herd Immunity If You Wanna Rock and Roll.
Back In Black In 50 Years.
For Those About To Flop ( We Salute You)…
M46BC
Other than swapping overpriced housing what do we do here in Canada?
1 in 5 people work in the public sector.
Tourism?
We had some high paying resource jobs in Calgary…
Pickled in debt we are facing demographic cliff and we don’t really have a job. (Worse yet we are anti-business.)
It’s unsustainable.
We are the country equivalent of a strongly-opinionated, unemployed, 40-something who still lives with his parents in a HELOC-funded retirement.
Here in Britain there is a lot of coverage over LTC elsewhere for seniors. The 2 countries to date that have realized there is a lot of money, from their perspective, by caring for older people are India and Thailand – and these cultures do really care for you. I am sure that many other Asian counties will in time get on this bandwagon.
There was one LTC home in Thailand for foreigners that was like a 5 star hotel. Each guest had a separate bungalow within the complex with hot and cold running care worker and RNs. All expenses including medical care was $2000 per month per bungalow. That’s the way to go. No winter.
Even in my village in Southern Italy that is full of old folk whose kids have built lives in Northern Italy where there is work, solve the parent caring problem with live-in carers from Romania and Albania for very reasonable cost. These old folk are truly loved as I see them being pushed out in their wheelchairs every day.
For those that say LTC is better in Canada, my mother died of Covid in her Ontario high end nursing home. She would have been safer in Vietnam.
Reality, huh….what a concept.
Have a safe Easter all!!
#160 Nonplused on 04.03.21 at 12:57 am
It is bad form to talk about religion, politics, penis size, or how much money you make at social gatherings.
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Agreed. If you want to talk about those things, it would be best to do it on a blog specific to that particular subject.
Have a look at the US debt:
https://www.worldometers.info/us-debt-clock/
Face value of money means little at this point and will mean even less in the future. Long term US policy to inflate away debt obligations seems to now be policy.
Of course the countries that own this debt will not be happy but the US still holds the biggest gun so there is not much that they can do.
Inflation is also great to get rid of other obligations such as pensions etc. Those payments are usually tied to official cpi (which is under-reported per design).
Just the way of the world folks, systems grow and then reach a peak and need to be restructured. Nothing scary but definitely some changes are coming.
Real estate obsession is right.
Throughout the lockdown, real estate agents are allowed to ply their trade with impunity, cycling customer after customer in and out and of condos and houses in back to back appointments, riding up and down elevators together, talking excitedly, no doubt spittling and drooling over real estate, and with just a measly soiled mask which is largely just theatre.
Meanwhile, public rec facilities and restaurants for example, went to great lengths to disinfect premises after each use and protect and distance customers, and for which there is no evidence of undue risk in remaining in operation, are shut down and the public is told to stay home. If you develop mental illness, that’s all to the greater public good. But real estate, that is allowed to carry on almost business as usual.
Shingles?
I recommend the IKO Cambridge Architectural shingles which have a 40 year warranty. Standard installation allows for winds up to 160 km per hour. Enhanced installation allows for winds up to 260 km per hour. Get the underlay also while you are at it. I will need to replace mine in probably 45 years the way they are currently lasting. Bought them 8 years ago.
Good luck
#161 Nonplused on 04.03.21 at 1:04 am
#129 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 04.02.21 at 8:44 pm
Sorry to change topics, but the commenters on this site seem very well informed. I need advice regarding new shingles for my home. Do any of the commenters have a brand of shingle they would recommend or stay away from? I’m looking at Owens Corning Duration, Certainteed Landmark, or GAF Timberline HDZ. A lot of the installers I’m getting quotes from are pushing IKO Cambridge or IKO Dynasty. Thanks for your opinions.
Not a shingle blog. – Garth
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Awe, Garth, so harsh. You let the tractor and power tool conversations go on.
So DLAL, unless your house is a tear down stay away from asphalt. There are several options that will last longer than you do. More money, but it will be the last time you have to worry about it unless you get some wind damage, but that is usually just a fix not a new roof.
Sorry Garth for all the comments I made about tractors and power tools. And this one I guess.
—
I guess I need to offer lots of apologies as well :).
DL, I put OC Duration on my place 2 years ago. They seem like a tough shingle, and the nailing strip and glue set up are great. I had IKO organic shingles before that, and they were toast in about 10 years. Do not put any organic shingle up there. If you’re in the house for the long haul, there are many other options that will last for life as NP mentioned, but for 2-3x the cost. I think these new fibreglass substrate asphalt shingles will last a good long time though, they haven’t been around long enough to know for sure. I put them on myself, and they seemed a lot better than the old tar paper organic shingles.
Sorry Mr T!
#160 Nonplused on 04.03.21 at 12:57 am
#135 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 9:39 pm
#75 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:28 pm
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
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It is bad form to talk about religion, politics, penis size, or how much money you make at social gatherings.
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I didn’t see any dollar amounts…just percentages. But I do see quite a bit of penis envy. Poor sail away…stooping down to calling people liars. If a tree falls in the forest, does it nakes? Of course it does. It doesn’t care if you’re around to hear it!
#160 Nonplused on 04.03.21 at 12:57 am
#135 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 9:39 pm
#75 Stone on 04.02.21 at 5:28 pm
#48 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 4:22 pm
#30 VGRO and chill on 04.02.21 at 3:24 pm
#11 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 2:26 pm
#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————————————
It is bad form to talk about religion, politics, penis size, or how much money you make at social gatherings.
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You new here? Lol
#62 Lee
LTC will not be $10,000 a month in 30 years. Unless it comes with a 3,000 sft unit.
Price private homes now, specifically for dementia folks. Public spaces will simply not be available to meet the demand in future. – Garth
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Garth is correctamundo.
Mom’s currently in a private care facility. Dementia care.
She lives in a room, but is well taken care of and sits in a common area during the day, and has meals in a common dining area. All under highly monitored and supervised conditions.
Current cost: $8,000.00 per month.
Trust me, it won’t be long until it’s $10 G’s a month.
#47 Exodus 2020
Boomers just take take take and will go for their last call crippling the younger generation. They see their net worth in real estate as a result of hard work and wise investment when it is largely attributed to progressively lowered interest rates over 40 years, along with mass immigration and decreased community home building to keep supply tight. So now millennials have to buyout this overpriced real estate, pay for their health care, and fund their oas and cpp.
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Gotta admit it….Boomers hat GREAT timing.
It’s good to be old….right now.
The young’uns are gonna be taxed to the eyeballs keeping us alive. After all, isn’t a society judged by how they treat their elderly?
Keep working, kids.
@#157 fishman on 04.03.21 at 12:11 am
‘Antifa”, Fishman. I count three of them, including the most obvious one. They give themselves away with anti capitalism, anti law enforcement, Critical theory Marxist comments. Connected to one in other ways as well, I think. Get a copy of Andy Ngo’s ‘Unmasked’ and you will be shocked to learn how many there are and what they are up to…
Jordan Peterson was right. They’re here and they know exactly what they are doing. ( through that one in just to really annoy them). History is repeating itself. People need to pay attention.
Should read ‘Connected to one another ways as well’..
..threw that one in… where is my coffee?
Reality is that most people are not good at financial investments. If you take the position of home ownership as a forced savings vehicle, you can argue by retirement they will/should have a good chunk when downsizing. This is cheaper way for the government as to not increase more taxes to support people in retirement (ie more OAS, CPP, etc..)
Food for thoughts.
To the pro-oil and mining gentleman. You speak of Canada holding the 3rd largest reserve of oil in the world, yet say nothing about the massive amounts of fresh water required to turn it into a useable product.
I believe that Canada’s fresh water is a more valuable resource than oil. I believe fresh water will be the worlds most important resource in the future, and to squander it processing tar sands is a crime, and shows no forward thinking whatsoever.
I’m tired of subsidizing big oil and watching us destroy the resources that are truly valuable in the process. Your path to financial prosperity is the equivalent of calling a pair of white oakley’s and a jacked up pickup truck “investing”.
Unsustainable – without major spending cuts and tax increases.
Garth, you ignore the most powerful government revenue generator: economic growth.
I factored in $20 billion revenue growth based, of course, on economic expansion. – Garth
Good post. Sounds like adult problems but we are governed by children.
#86
I don’t understand why some of you say we have no choice? Why can families not plan to live with less? I see so many families with children upgrade into bigger homes. I think you can live on less.