Game-changer

Just in time for spring showers, spring flowers and puppies (at four grand a piece), we have new lockdowns. Covid ain’t giving it up. BC is shuttered. The crazy Kelowna ski hill kids are all fired. Ontario hears the bad news today. ICUs are full. Public health officials are scary. Schools going remote again. Every province is screaming for vax, and the variants are winning.

As you know, real estate open houses are gone. Home inspectors (if you’re lucky enough to engage one) get sixty minutes to do a five-hour job. Appraisers are turning mean. Even realtors in PPE have not been enough to scare off house-horny, FOMO-infested buyers.

It’s a weird, mystifying time. Are things getting better or worse? Will downtowns ever repopulate? Why have only 14% of Canadians received one jab when 30% of Americans have been dosed? Why are financial markets at record levels when we’re entering the second year of a global pandemic?

Here are a few notes. Try not to throw up.

“For the first time in 5 years the two heavyweights of the Canadian housing market have broken above their previous peaks,” says YVR housing analyst Dane Eitel. “Both real estate market values are now in uncharted territory, implying a new growth cycle is in its infancy.  The new highs created in February were $1.869M in Greater Vancouver & $1.684M in Toronto.”

Why has this happened, other than pandemic-bred demand for space?

More importantly but less obvious was the banks’ ability to issue new mortgages to the increased applicants. This was enabled due to the Mortgage Bond Purchasing Program (CMBP) introduced by the Bank of Canada beginning in March 2020. The program enabled the BoC to purchase up to $500 million in secondary mortgage monds per week.

By the way, this easy-mortgage program has cost the central bank (and us) $8 billion.

And what does the Bank of Canada boss say our most inflated, dangerous and ubiquitous asset? “Canadians are stretching and that is worrying.” Governor Tiff Macklem told the Financial Post. “If Canadians are basing their decisions on the kinds of price increases that we’ve seen recently are going to continue indefinitely, that would be a mistake. They’re not sustainable.”

Suck. Blow. Creds, zero.

Meanwhile 63% of Canadians have FOMO, expecting house prices to keep rising. So they carry on spending, buying and borrowing.

Are speculators, flippers and scuzzy renovestors making this market insanity worse?

In a shocking report, Re/Max says no (seriously). “Bully offers and bidding wars are commonplace in the current market, with demand outpacing supply in virtually all areas of the GTA and the winner buyer paying top dollar. The current environment is simply too hot for investors and builders.” So why is this happening – other than oceans of ridiculously cheap money, pimp bankers, manipulative realtors, greedy sellers and widespread social insanity?

Low interest rates, of course. Plus big equity gains, “inspiring existing homeowners to trade up to larger homes or better neighbourhoods – both in and outside of the city.” Also the Covid cash that governments have thrown around plus savings caused by WFH have swollen household cash reserves, says the real estate-flogging firm. The savings rate of 1.4% in 2019 is currently 13%. And bidding wars, blind auctions and inflated offers have just pumped up more demand – because people really, really, really what the stuff they can’t have.

And what are the vaccines doing now that the overlord Boomer class is getting jabbed?

More will be listing, realtors say, as they feel immune from the virus and decide to cash in their chips, selling in the midst of an historic storm to some crazed Millennials willing to swallow a lifetime of debt to buy their old house without conditions, caution or common sense. And what a retirement bonanza that will be – sucking windfall gains out of torrid, teetering real estate and putting them into financial markets now on the verge of a Roaring Twenties, post-bug romp.

Did you see the latest?

The S&P 500 – the world’s most important equity market – just broke through 4,000 for the first time. Inflated like a bungalow in Etobicoke? Nope. This is solid, broad-based and likely the precursor for a lot more to come.

US consumer confidence is the highest in years. Two million people a day are being vaccinated. The jobs stats to be unveiled in the morning are expected to be awesome – maybe a million new hires in March. Biden’s unveiled a $2.5 trillion infrastructure bill. It comes atop the $2 trillion Covid recovery bill. Tech stocks have taken off again as bond yields moderate. Cyclical, old-school issues are also climbing because the economy is reopening. Virtually all 11 sectors of the market are flashing green.

Don’t tell the house-lusty Mills, but the game has changed. Enjoy your forever mortgages, kids.

About the picture: “Don’t know if this fits in,” says Scott, “but the wife came back in the house to see Toby walking around with AC grate attached to his collar. He looks so humiliated, maybe because he can’t blame it on the cat. Or maybe it was the cat.”

164 comments ↓

#1 Leftover on 04.01.21 at 12:59 pm

Biggest transfer of wealth in history…and it’s from young to old.

Holy Covid Batman, you really are richer than you think!

#2 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 1:00 pm

Whistler/Blackcomb just got shut down too now.

#3 TurnerNation on 04.01.21 at 1:03 pm

– I dunno but a North American Union came to mind. Might be too early to tell:

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (TSX: CP, NYSE: CP) (“CP”) and Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (“KCS”) today announced they have received statements from nearly 260 shippers, other railroads, economic development authorities, ports, and other supporters for their planned combination that would create the first rail network connecting the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Union

– Dollarama said it is planning to build more than 600 new stores in Canada over the next 10 years.

– Ahem. I remember, this. Then the May 2-4 weekend…I’m betting Ontariowe lockdown till June. Pulled that out of a hat.
Predictions are all in fun. Then a 4th wave for…Labour Day. And a 5th wave for…Christmas of course! It must be cancelled. Sigh:

“- Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.
— Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.”

– The goal is Chaos. We must be kept off balance at all times. Rules. Always the changing rules. Keeps us healthy

Toronto furious to learn that patios will close again just 2 weeks after reopening
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/04/toronto-furious-patios-closing/

…..
Economics 101. You shutdown the province for 28 days…forever. What to do for money?
Remember…there is no longer any news. All predictive programming . Also in my opinion the dissenters were purged in January. Few dozen elected leaders. Holiday travel was the excuse.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberal-mps-grassroots-to-push-for-universal-basic-income-at-party-convention-1.5346048

– Ontariowe has been locked down non stop since Nov. Now extended until April. But only 28 days longer. Fool me once.

Paging Alphonse…he nailed it bac in Nov.

“#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.
28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.””

#4 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 1:04 pm

This is well worth the read:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/companies-stuck-with-big-downtown-leases-as-employees-work-from-home-1.5370807

The VEC found 43 per cent of workers in Metro Vancouver can and are now doing their jobs from home. And because they’re not coming downtown to work, they’re not spending money there anymore. If workers don’t come back it could cost downtown restaurants and retailers up to a billion dollars a year.

Personally, I don’t see this WFH trend changing any time soon.

#5 Concerned Citizen on 04.01.21 at 1:08 pm

“The S&P 500 – the world’s most important equity market – just broke through 4,000 for the first time. Inflated like a bungalow in Etobicoke? Nope. This is solid, broad-based and likely the precursor for a lot more to come.”

I’m not nearly as sanguine about equities, Garth. I think it was Goldman that put out a chart not long ago pointing out that the S&P 500 is, by most valuation measures, the most expensive it has ever been (even more than in 2000 and 1929). These weren’t just cyclical indicators like P/E either – things like Q-ratio, P/B, P/S, and plenty others were included. And the index has only kept rocketing higher since – now up over 80% since the March 2020 lows, and almost 20% higher than the pre-COVID highs.

Of course, I’m under no illusions that the central bank pumping will end any time soon. But I care just as much about price paid vs. value received in stocks as I do in real estate, and the prices of both are through the roof and I’m just not seeing the value to match.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. The higher the price you pay, the lower prospective returns. To me, future returns look abysmal, and quite possibly negative over the next 5-10 years if there is even a little mean reversion in valuations.

#6 Millennial 1%er on 04.01.21 at 1:08 pm

It’s quite literally free money

#7 earthboundmisfit on 04.01.21 at 1:08 pm

ReMax are bandits. Worst of the worst. The Investors Group of the RE industry.

#8 Flop... on 04.01.21 at 1:13 pm

Surely now with Ontario going into lockdown the CRA will step in and put the tax filing date back like last year.

People aren’t going to be able to get all their forms in time.

Any day now.

Any day now.

Now…

M46BC

#9 Cici on 04.01.21 at 1:15 pm

Awesome photo and yes, it sure does fit the bill of today’s blog.

I bet that cutie Toby was using the grates of the vent to scratch an itch and subsequently got caught in it and ripped it loose trying to escape.

#10 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 1:17 pm

Are speculators, flippers and scuzzy renovestors making this market insanity worse?

In my area there are still 1950s bungalows selling for $1.5+ million again and they are being redeveloped into McMansions for mysterious buyers.

#11 Sail Away on 04.01.21 at 1:17 pm

#1 Leftover on 04.01.21 at 12:59 pm

Biggest transfer of wealth in history…and it’s from young to old.

———-

Patience… it will reverse.

The hard truth is that nobody gets out alive.

#12 FJ Powell, FJ Yellen, FJ Biden on 04.01.21 at 1:22 pm

So real estate market detached from reality but stock markets rational with 20% zombie companies and nosebleed valuations.

Garth at the very least call it all insane and a result of criminal manipulation by your pals at Central banks. Sorry where are all these trillions coming from exactly?

Even if there are a million new McDonald​s workers hired in March, it doesn’t offset 3+ million newly unemployed in the same month and every month since last March Let’s cut the crap, please.

#13 DON on 04.01.21 at 1:27 pm

Boomers listing their houses…

The Boomerang effect.

The next ‘it is different this time’ phrase will most likely be ‘No one saw this coming’.

The education systems needs to be over hauled…that’s where we should start. Teach people to think not repeat.

The US is spending money on infrastructure will our leafers do the same in the upcoming election budget?

#14 Guelph Guru on 04.01.21 at 1:27 pm

“This was enabled due to the Mortgage Bond Purchasing Program ”

So it’s 2008 all over again. But this time it’s Canada. When US blew up the whole world was affected as everyone owned the toxic MBS. When Canada blows up only we the Canadians will be affected as we will be left holding the MBS through BoC. Did we not learn anything from 2008?
I guess the solution is simple, increase the currency supply. That seems to be the only tool available to the CBs as no sane investor is willing to buy bonds at these ridiculous rates.
Better convert all CAD to Yuan.

#15 NSNG on 04.01.21 at 1:30 pm

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 8:38 am

@#144 NSNG
“And for the first time in 50 years, someone is going to have to tell the boomers the word “no”.
Their parents never taught it to them when they were growing up.”

+++
Possibly because their parents didnt bother telling them “No”…….. they just spanked them for screwing up.

I’ll take that “lesson” over a parent telling their kid “good job” for every lazy attempt they make.
There’s an entire generation coming up that cant handle the truth…..

At least those kids coming up won’t have the chance to squander 6 generations (their grandparents, their parents, their own, and 3 generations after them in reckless public debt binges) of wealth like their boomer parents did.

#16 NotLegalAdvice on 04.01.21 at 1:30 pm

If houses lust can last another 6 months with another 10% increase, I am cashing in and listing my house too.

Purchased Oct. 2020 for $810k, neighbour with the same house just sold 4 days ago for $1.125m. If I can get $1.25m by Oct. 2021, I am outta here….then I’ll rent.

#17 Planetgoofy on 04.01.21 at 1:33 pm

What the hell Garth. If the clowns in control can add zeros on the deficit… why not throw 1 on your house?

#18 Bob the Cat on 04.01.21 at 1:33 pm

The 1M mortgages is the new normal? If the BoC is ready to inflate the RE market like this, and they do it on purpose, then why are we even thinking that this could reverse or that the BoC will not sustain this in the future? We forgot to take into the equation the mortgage stress tests and that the person who stays at the same bank after 5 years won’t have to pass it again. And if you pass the test and don’t have to pass it later, then an increase of 1.75% in your mortgage should be more than OK. So the ones who buy houses now, if they will be able to pay them during 25 years, will just keep paying them. What’s the issue, I don’t get it…

#19 TurnerNation on 04.01.21 at 1:39 pm

ICUs full!! Look at the date on this one

3 years ago. Maybe we should have shut down the province then??
Ah but the “Great Reset” was not in vogue, back then.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/02/13/toronto-hospital-flu/

Surgeries postponed due to severe flu cases overwhelming Toronto ICU
BY AMANDA FERGUSONPOSTED FEB 13, 2018 5:23 PM EDT LAST UPDATED FEB 13, 2018 AT 6:47 PM EDT

#20 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 1:40 pm

Why have only 14% of Canadians received one jab when 30% of Americans have been dosed?

Because, the Americans are

VAX HOGS

keeping all their production to themselves like their buddies in the UK. And their Pfizer plants courtesy of idiot Germany and their +€400M investment via BioNTech.

And Canada you’re at 14% by the GOOD GRACE of the much maligned EUROPEAN UNION that exports 30% of its production which includes Kanuckistan.

Hope all you Beavers with cash remember that when this is all over. Come to Italia and throw some money around and not in the VAX self-serving “all for me, none for you” UK and USA.

———————————

Every province is screaming for vax, and the variants are winning.

WTF are the Provinces screaming about? Gov Canada should be screaming not them.

As of Mar 31:

679,909 new deliveries, 7.1M total, 1.4 MILLION DOSES UNUSED, 6.7 day inventory, Gov Canada keeps pace (and the Territories).

The Provinces are NOT keeping pace & their single + double dose strategy is STUPID – Canada could see herd immunity by late July/early August but oh no, the PTB as in many cards short of a full deck, math challenged.

CLOWN CAR Provinces done in 2022 the way they are going about it:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1377574331409174530

Overall, the variants as of Mar 31 NOT winning, yet – read last line:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1377571666453217282

The variants will win when the Brazil and S. African variants take over…both = 5% of total variants so far.

And, they’re NASTY. UK variant an amateur compared to them.

They can elude an old fashioned Covid infection’s immunity or immunity from a vax.

Don’t believe me?

Read uber prestigious The Lancet from the UK, 1st paragraph (a.k.a., dunging bricks):

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00468-2/fulltext

…ya, up dung creek without a paddle. Just ask Manaus and the rest of Brazil how its going with their variant now that the cats out of Manaus there…yesterday:

+89,200 new cases, +3,950 deaths.

———————

Canada, save it messed up Provincial vax drive, doing fine thanks very much.

GDP +0.7% Jan, off only -2.3% from a year ago…reason to cheer and not yet overwhelmed by the variants, keeping the 2 evil ones at bay so far.

More reason to cheer.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 1:41 pm

@#4 S.Bby
“Personally, I don’t see this WFH trend changing any time soon.”

+++
Yep.

I see this accelerating the WFH movement.
The electronic cottage is here….

#22 alexinvestor on 04.01.21 at 1:57 pm

The S&P Total Return Index has gone up an astounding 17% annually over the past 10 years. Much better than a house in Etobicoke. Although there might be more, I wouldn’t say it isn’t inflated. The problem is finding something that isn’t inflated.

#23 Doug t on 04.01.21 at 2:00 pm

Apparently the Covid mutates so quickly that we will be living with it for years to come – so how will this affect society and the economy in the next 5 to 10 years? Perhaps Stephen Kings novel The Stand has something to say lol

#24 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 2:08 pm

My last rant I said:

CLOWN CAR Provinces done in 2022 the way they are going about it.

—————-

Take the same number of doses yesterday, 209,556 and SINGLE DOSE ONLY. Instead of being done (32M Beavers ≥ 15 yrs old, incl vax’d to date, 1 & 2 doses @ above rate) in:

January 3, 2022

Canada would be done, as in all them 32M Beavers:

August 3, 2021

Why the Provincial vax strategies (1 & 2 dose vax’ng) is:

DUMB.

To add insult to the ongoing Clown Car Accident:

Moderna 1 dose efficacy = 92%.

Now if they did a SINGLE DOSE vax strategy ONLY, from now on in, this is when Canada would achieve Herd Immunity at various %’s:

70% June 27, 2021
80% July 9, 2021
90% July 22, 2021

But oh no, why would we (Provinces) SINGLE DOSE vax only and then resume double dose vax’ng after herd immunity?

Because, we are 2 bricks short of a full load and can’t do BASIC MATH.

THAT’S why.

———————————–

Canada could have the MOTHER OF ALL Canada Day celebrations in 2021 but NOT the way the Provinces are going about it.

Let alone back to normal, a return to prosperity/wealth generation the overall WELL BEING of a nation.

No siree.

-FWIW

#25 Barb on 04.01.21 at 2:10 pm

Our dismal vacc record is entirely due to T2’s ineptitude.

#26 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 2:10 pm

“The S&P 500 – the world’s most important equity market – just broke through 4,000 for the first time. Inflated like a bungalow in Etobicoke? Nope. This is solid, broad-based and likely the precursor for a lot more to come.”

We are in the midst of an extreme monetary experiment and no one knows how this will ultimately turn out.

Actually we’re coming out of a global pandemic. What else would you expect but growth? – Garth

#27 FriedEggs on 04.01.21 at 2:15 pm

They know we know.

Rub a dub dub, thanks for the grub.

#28 Sail Away on 04.01.21 at 2:16 pm

#20 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 1:40 pm

Why have only 14% of Canadians received one jab when 30% of Americans have been dosed?

Because, the Americans are

VAX HOGS

keeping all their production to themselves

———

Stop spreading untruths, Dolce.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7704507/canada-us-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine/

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 2:17 pm

@#15 NSNG
“At least those kids coming up won’t have the chance to squander 6 generations (their grandparents, their parents, their own, and 3 generations after them in reckless public debt binges) of wealth like their boomer parents did.”

+++

And I thought Donald Trump lived in a make believe world.

Might want to check your facts
The current Trudeau has just Doubled the National Debt in one year as opposed to the previous 50 years of debt accumulation…… and last time I checked .

No one is forcing these idiots to have bidding wars on houses and pay what everyone is warning are ridiculous, unsustainable prices for housing.

Caveat Emptor ( Let the Buyer beware )as the Romans used to say 2000 years ago.

We Boomers went through our high unemployment recession in the 1970’s and early 1980’s

You’ve been living under economic boom times for the last 30 years….with record low unemployment, record low interest rates …and its all our fault?

A brutal recession is long long overdue.
Live and learn tadpole.
A little suffering is what makes you stronger.

And it doesnt matter who you blame when the bank refuses you more credit.

Time to learn how to actually save money and buy when you can afford to pay with 25%, 50% or 100% down instead of credit, leasing, mortgaging to acquire a fricken coffee maker, a car or a house.

#30 DON on 04.01.21 at 2:22 pm

#18 Bob the Cat on 04.01.21 at 1:33 pm
The 1M mortgages is the new normal? If the BoC is ready to inflate the RE market like this, and they do it on purpose, then why are we even thinking that this could reverse or that the BoC will not sustain this in the future? We forgot to take into the equation the mortgage stress tests and that the person who stays at the same bank after 5 years won’t have to pass it again. And if you pass the test and don’t have to pass it later, then an increase of 1.75% in your mortgage should be more than OK. So the ones who buy houses now, if they will be able to pay them during 25 years, will just keep paying them. What’s the issue, I don’t get it…

*****************

Many more variables are at play…prices of everything are going up. Like being dropped in the middle of the ocean without a life jacket far from shore.

#31 Bram Stoker on 04.01.21 at 2:28 pm

Sobering projections from the US CBO.

“Rising debt levels will “increase the risk of a fiscal crisis—that is, a situation in which investors lose confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to service and repay its debt, causing interest rates to increase abruptly, inflation to spiral upward, or other disruptions,” the CBO warns. “It would increase the likelihood of less abrupt, but still significant, negative effects, such as expectations of higher rates of inflation.”

A national debt nearly twice the size of the economy will put a significant damper on long-term economic growth. The CBO now projects average growth of just 1.6 percent annually over the next 30 years. That’s almost a full percentage point less than the 2.5 percent average growth rate during the past 30 years.”

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-09/56516-LTBO.pdf

As long as the S&P is correlated to the national debt, all will be good.

Any body forecasting GDP growth 30 years out just blew its credibility. – Garth

#32 DON on 04.01.21 at 2:35 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 1:41 pm
@#4 S.Bby
“Personally, I don’t see this WFH trend changing any time soon.”

+++
Yep.

I see this accelerating the WFH movement.
The electronic cottage is here….

*****

In terms of spreading out the taxbase and jobs to the other parts of the region makes sense for certain jobs given the advancements in technology. More room for growth in the smaller communities. In BC most resource reliant towns could diversify as most are barely hanging on to their existing tax base. Lots of beautiful ‘ ghost towns’ out there.

#33 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 2:36 pm

#28 Sail Away

You’re fortunate I like you.

The doses have NOT been received. They are being given to Canada as they have approved here. AstraZeneca NOT approved in the USA. Why Canada getting them.

7.1M doses to date (FROM THE EU), excl. imaginary 1.5M doses YET TO BE RECEIVED…

The only AstraZeneca Canada has so far 0.5M doses from India and enough were past their date…Modi trying to get whining Trudeau off his back.

So who is spreading non-truths here?

Google USA vaccine export controls on your own.

And see this graphic:

https://i.imgur.com/oiO3Kwb.png

Subtract 2M doses (0.5M from India, too be received 1.5M from VAX HOG America) do some ciphering and the remainder is from the EU:

https://i.imgur.com/oiO3Kwb.png

—————————–

…non-truths he says, advice:

1. Basic Math.
2. Try to keep up.

#34 Concerned Citizen on 04.01.21 at 2:42 pm

#26 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 2:10 pm

We are in the midst of an extreme monetary experiment and no one knows how this will ultimately turn out.

*****

We don’t, but the fact that central bankers are still printing like there’s no tomorrow – despite overwhelming signs of great exceess with asset prices – suggests they’re trying to monetize and/or inflate away the debt. Lagarde basically taunted the bond market the other day.

They can never come right out and say that, of course, since the working and middle class would get upset. After all, this policy mostly benefits those with wealth, while sticking everyone else with the bill through higher inflation. If they actually said what they’re doing there would protests in the streets.

There’s a lot of talk about a “K-shape” recovery, but not nearly enough awareness as to why that is (central bank money printing being the main contributor). This is why I can’t take the Liberals’ equality agenda seriously – anything they do on the fiscal side is like weeing into the wind of monetary policy.

#35 Stone on 04.01.21 at 2:47 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 1:41 pm
@#4 S.Bby
“Personally, I don’t see this WFH trend changing any time soon.”

+++
Yep.

I see this accelerating the WFH movement.
The electronic cottage is here….

———

So, that means rents will stay cheaper and get cheaper in the city?

Excellent!

Mr Burns from the Simpsons: It’s like taking candy from a baby.

#36 NSNG on 04.01.21 at 2:49 pm

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 2:17 pm

Might want to check your facts
The current Trudeau has just Doubled the National Debt in one year as opposed to the previous 50 years of debt accumulation…… and last time I checked .

You are right. And what is the average age of those running parliament and the CEOs of the companies that urged him to do it? Also, before he doubled the debt boomers had already squandered three generations of wealth via debt and at least two after them? When do we pay that bill the country has run up?

We Boomers went through our high unemployment recession in the 1970’s and early 1980’s

Actually, I am an GenXer so I know exactly what ‘we’ went through in the ’70’s and ’80’s. When the government decided to go off the gold standard and print like mad, no one of the voting public of any generation uttered a peep.

You’ve been living under economic boom times for the last 30 years….with record low unemployment, record low interest rates …and its all our fault?

Do you even have a clue where that boom time came from? It was borrowed from the future to bring spending forward with the promise that it will be paid back ‘in the future’. That never happened and the future is here, now.

So with the government going broke(especially in the US, who Canada is economically linked to, with their trillions in unfunded old-age liabilities) and not having enough money to pay for their debt and pension liabilities, Trudeau is running up the debt. And it is not just him, look at Ontar-i-owe. They were bankrupt before the crisis. How exactly are they going to pay for all the spending they have been bringing forward during the great boom times you talk of?

#37 LARRY APP on 04.01.21 at 2:53 pm

Just like the leaked Liberal document said … 3rd lockdown is here .
Well , if you want to know how this is going, find the document online and read it .
Anybody refusing to even look at that letter is in for a rude awakening. It might be fake , but so far it is batting 1.000

#38 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 2:56 pm

Actually we’re coming out of a global pandemic. What else would you expect but growth? – Garth

I was thinking more about the excessive QE that’s happening.

#39 mj on 04.01.21 at 3:00 pm

Job numbers in Canada might be ok in March, but with more lockdowns in April. The numbers won’t be good when they come out in May.

The numbers I referenced are US, as indicated. – Garth

#40 IHCTD9 on 04.01.21 at 3:08 pm

I see Ford is handing out 400.00/kid to parents for “COVID relief”. Gotta be school aged though, I am starting to run out of those.

Into the YAMAHA RMax 1000 fund it goes for when I can go to the dealer and actually buy one. Everyone else will probably spend it on real estate.

We have entered a new era of politician. Completely subservient to the requirements for becoming re-elected, to hell with anything else. Have we not been in receipt of enough handouts already?

#41 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:08 pm

#26 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 2:10 pm

We are in the midst of an extreme monetary experiment and no one knows how this will ultimately turn out.

Actually we’re coming out of a global pandemic. What else would you expect but growth? – Garth

Some think we may be entering a 1960s-1970s era period where the economy grows but equities remain range bound because rising rates continually pull people from equities to bonds.

One quant I follow has a macro view that rising rates will eventually beat down tech and when that happens the whole equity market will take a plunge because the need to rotate out of tech can’t be met with sufficient liquidity to make it a smooth rotation. There’s a correction every year historically, so this would be the driver.

He sees weaknesses in mid-April flows as likely time for the drop. Have cash on hand for May/June buying as the Fed steps in followed by another roll in fall. In the midst, sectors oriented toward Biden spending should hold up well. Between now and April, very likely several new ATHs in SPX and maybe a ramp of IXIC. That’s his thesis. He’s been bang on for a few months now, so I give his view some weight.

Don’t bother. There is no way bond yields will challenge dividends for several years. – Garth

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 3:09 pm

@#36 NSNG

“How exactly are they going to pay for all the spending they have been bringing forward during the great boom times you talk of?”

++++

Ask your fellow Gen X’er Trudeau.
I hear he’s embraced Modern Monetary Theory and has turn his back on real thingys like debt and budgets…..

A gen X remembers the unemployment/recession in the 70’s?
Were you a savant working at the age of 5?

I seem to recall Paul Martin balancing the budget and paying down the debt during his reign as Finance Minister because it was the #1 concern of the majority of Voters (Boomers) in the 1990’s.
Your “blame the boomers” and self flagellation is quite amusing.
Climb down off that sanctimonious high mule and let me up there.
I hear I can see Whiner-ville from the back of that braying ass.

#43 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:20 pm

#171 Sail Away on 04.01.21 at 11:06 am

#150 millmech on 04.01.21 at 8:25 am

Millmech, it sounds like you are suffering from theta bleed as well as dropping IVol in your options. Dealers make a crap ton of money selling options after a bog stock move. I sincerely hope I’m wrong about my supposition.

When thinking about valuations on those companies, look at their price history and then ask yourself if anything meaningful happened with their business models that warrants that kind of share price growth. You will then see that the prices aren’t supported by fundamentals or fundamental change. That GSX was another Hwang holding and that GSX is a fraud should be another warning sign that those prices are wack. TME, VIAC, DISCA have working business models, but they were manipulated up by a whale and as GME has shown us, the fall back to reality can be slow and bumpy. I hope you profit off the bumps and keep any greed in check.

#44 greyhound on 04.01.21 at 3:23 pm

This is solid, broad-based and likely the precursor for a lot more to come.
As long as the central banks keep conjuring money out of thin air. But what if bond or currency markets decided to intervene?

Then it gets better. – Garth

#45 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:26 pm

#37 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:20 pm
#171 Sail Away on 04.01.21 at 11:06 am
#150 millmech on 04.01.21 at 8:25 am

Big stock move, but bog also works here. Point being that upward price movement in the underlying can still lead to losses for OTM calls.

#46 Catalyst on 04.01.21 at 3:36 pm

A time tested mantra, actions speak louder than words. Believe what they do, not what they say.

#47 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:39 pm

#41 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:08 pm

#26 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 2:10 pm

Don’t bother. There is no way bond yields will challenge dividends for several years. – Garth

Yeah true and for long term investing, none of this matters much. And I’m fully onboard with strong GDP growth for coming years. That said, I think how equities behave depends on their realized volatility. If volatility stays suppressed, then the risk premium will fall in favour of equities and uppa across the board right along with exploding upward GDP. But, if things get choppy, even the 1.7% of the 10year will start to look more attractive. Once long bond yield breaks meaningfully above inflation, TINA won’t be so pretty if she’s erratic despite big GDP gains.

This is all pretty interesting because we may (hopefully) be witnesses to a historic rotation from ZIRP enforced growth to an economy that runs on more realistic rates. I’ll be listening for your words, Garth, because you have experience living/investing in a high rate world. But, I’ll also be watching mid-April closely.

#48 Was outside cleaning up ... on 04.01.21 at 3:39 pm

the other day and a kid (12 or 13 yo I guess) came riding along on his bicycle and stopped at a For Sale sign at my wonderful neighbors house, took one of the leaflets, and studied it for about 5 minutes before pocketing it and riding off. I told said neighbor and he laughed … I said “don’t laugh, he may have a paper route and can qualify for a mortgage …”

#49 Faron on 04.01.21 at 3:48 pm

To clarify, in saying “Have cash on hand” I didn’t mean “sell to raise cash”.

#50 Leftover on 04.01.21 at 3:54 pm

#11 Sail Away
——

#1 Leftover on 04.01.21 at 12:59 pm

Biggest transfer of wealth in history…and it’s from young to old.

———-

Patience… it will reverse.

The hard truth is that nobody gets out alive.

—-

Yup, death and taxes, the dance of life.

But if I were a Millennial I’d be worried that the feds will cut in before I get my hands on the loot bag.

Nothing better than bigger estate taxes. Hard to vote when you’re on the other side of the grass.

#51 Habitt on 04.01.21 at 3:55 pm

29 Fartzy That was so good. Thanks eh

#52 LP on 04.01.21 at 3:57 pm

#29. Re your use of the Latin “caveat emptor”

Reminds me of a phrase spoken by Rhett Butler about Scarlet’s store. He named it Caveat Emptorium. A fitting name for all the mortgaged-to-the-hilt houses people will be living in.

#53 Harvard on 04.01.21 at 3:57 pm

Housing bubbles are brutal. The second half of the housing boom-bust cycle, the bust, inevitably creates major problems for the economy.

Example: Toronto in the early 90s. “Nobody” saw that bust happening. “Nobody” ever does. Immigration, CMHC and any of the other 1,000 “it’s different here” reasons parroted by the industry were, of course, in place at the time supposedly making the market immune to a major price correction. Of course the major price correction happened anyway. And it took 17 years for prices to recover.

But that wasn’t the big one for Canada. Garth wrote about Canada’s housing bubble back in 2008 and prices and debt have skyrocketed since then, making a bad situation far worse.

The big one for Canada is coming. It’s inevitable.

#54 Bram Stoker on 04.01.21 at 3:59 pm

Any body forecasting GDP growth 30 years out just blew its credibility. – Garth
__________________________

Point taken. However, in their defense and for the record – it is the US Congressional Budget Office. I would hope that US lawmakers make an effort to assess long-term economic trends. I know they don’t ….

Much of their forecast is based on large-scale demographic trends.

They have a pretty graph. In summary:

Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP

1951 – 1974: 3.9%
1975 – 1982: 3.0%
1983 – 1991: 3.3%
1992 – 2002: 3.2%
2003 – 2008: 2.4%
2009 – 2019: 1.6%
2020-2030: 1.8% (projected)
2031-2040: 1.5% (projected)
2041-2050: 1.5% (projected)

Most of the change is driven by changing demographics changing the size of the labour force.

I do hope they are wrong, and GDP increases are driven by increased productivity. I just don’t see it.

#55 Flop... on 04.01.21 at 3:59 pm

Event of yesterday have me pondering something.

My Father In Law was strutting around yesterday afternoon with his “I got vaccinated” sticker on his jacket.

With the mess going on in Ottawa, how come we don’t get “I filed my taxes” stickers when we leave the tax office…

M46BC

#56 SunShowers on 04.01.21 at 4:03 pm

Glad to have bought my house for a paltry 200 grand @ 2.5% four years ago. Probably going to be renewing at about 2.5% next year too.

#57 Steveston on 04.01.21 at 4:07 pm

Here in the Bizzaro world of BC, UBC is giving an honorary degree to the public health official that has taken us from one of the best jurisdictions on Covid in Canada, if not NA, to one of the worst.

#58 Phil on 04.01.21 at 4:20 pm

Dog is grate
Beer is still good
People are crazier than ever

#59 Northshore guy on 04.01.21 at 4:21 pm

WFH update.

We were told we will be wfh until early 2022, after that we will slowly return to work, there was a talk of expanding office space to make it more healthy.

Then news came our office has been shutdown, lease wasn’t renewed. They are looking to get smaller space and move to permanent wfh or hybrid. Hybrid most likely.

My next rental will be Chilliwack when the our current lease ends lol. We can’t buy anyways..

#60 Ted Hatton on 04.01.21 at 4:23 pm

Same thing with the register used to happen to my pup when we were growing up. But as a miniature dachshund, her short little legs would drag it on the floor and scare the heck out of her, which would make her want to run away, which would scare her even more…

She would lie on the register as the furnace was running, as that would be the warmest point in the house. But sometimes her dog tag would slip through and turn “just so”, and voila, instant pendant.

#61 wallflower on 04.01.21 at 4:26 pm

I am going to the mall for the better popcorn (kernels).
This is going to be a good show.

#62 Heather on 04.01.21 at 4:29 pm

I remember when house buyers always walked away from multiple offer situations. No buyers wanted to pay over the fair market value. It helped to keep values in check, no unjustified price inflation.
In Australia house actions are held outside the listing, all buyers present. No secret bids.

#63 Howard on 04.01.21 at 4:29 pm

#15 NSNG on 04.01.21 at 1:30 pm

Any suggestion that the Boomers were less than perfect, or that the generation handed prosperity and massive wealth on a silver platter could have acted a little more responsibly, will trigger him.

#64 Stone on 04.01.21 at 4:31 pm

Meanwhile 63% of Canadians have FOMO, expecting house prices to keep rising. So they carry on spending, buying and borrowing.

———

Oy! At one point, that’s going hurt their little bum bums. On the other hand, good Canadian comrades, keep spending. My B&D portfolio now sits at 9.14%. I appreciate your diligent spending habits. You’d think that would be an April fools joke but in fact, it is not.

#65 NSNG on 04.01.21 at 4:33 pm

42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 3:09 pm

A gen X remembers the unemployment/recession in the 70’s?
Were you a savant working at the age of 5?

You don’t need to be working to understand what is going on in a gas lineup. It filters down to the kids also.

And my original point was that the boomers are going to learn the word no for the first time. They are the ones with all the cash and all the old-age entitlements and they are going to scream loudest when told the cupboard is bare.

And if you want to know what hard times are like then try competing with a generation that glutted the workforce and had 20 years experience/seniority on you coming out of school and another 20 years to go. Being GenX meant being part of the leftover generation. Frugality was a way of life.

#66 Howard on 04.01.21 at 4:36 pm

Fartzy, according to Neil Howe’s work, Boomers as a whole were very much coddled and protected as children. Yes, Millennials were too, but not significantly moreso than the Boomers.

The ones who had rough childhoods (by comparison) were Gen X-ers. The period from 1970ish to the mid 80s saw parenthood take a step back and kids were left to their own devices and often viewed with suspicion. This was the era of latchkey kids and they were expected to tough things out from an early age.

#67 Damifino on 04.01.21 at 4:53 pm

#23 Doug t

Apparently the Covid mutates so quickly that we will be living with it for years to come – so how will this affect society and the economy in the next 5 to 10 years?
——————————-

Are you assuming COVID must mutate into something more potent rather than less potent? The H1N1 virus that caused the horrific 1918 influenza pandemic is still with humanity a hundred years on. Why are we not so afraid of that virus any more?

#68 N on 04.01.21 at 4:57 pm

now on the verge of a Roaring Twenties, post-bug romp…

The Schiller PE should soon seek an all-time-high.

#69 Damifino on 04.01.21 at 4:59 pm

Any body forecasting GDP growth 30 years out just blew its credibility. – Garth
—————————-

It sounds like they tore a page out of the climate thumper’s handbook.

#70 Polecat on 04.01.21 at 4:59 pm

Gen-X strong!

#71 FreeBird on 04.01.21 at 5:01 pm

Govt’s new rules for online harms. Will misleading real estate info be incl in future? I’m guessing industry has too much lobbying power.

https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2021/federal-government-announces-new-rules/?utm_source=vuture&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=vuture/

#72 Terry on 04.01.21 at 5:02 pm

“Just in time for spring showers, spring flowers and puppies (at four grand a piece), we have new lockdowns. Covid ain’t giving it up. BC is shuttered. The crazy Kelowna ski hill kids are all fired. Ontario hears the bad news today. ICUs are full. Public health officials are scary. Schools going remote again. Every province is screaming for vax, and the variants are winning.”

Told-Ya-So!

This virus will have it’s way………..not the will of man. The world is a toxic broken mess that will be getting worse and worse as each year passes. My family is learning great survival skills, prospering, progressing and getting richer in these times. You need to learn to swim or sink trying. This is how the world rolls now. Isolate, innovate, adapt and overcome and you will survive and do well.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:06 pm

@#65 NSNG
“And if you want to know what hard times are like then try competing with a generation that glutted the workforce and had 20 years experience/seniority on you coming out of school and another 20 years to go. ”

+++

Errrr.

I was born at the very end of the Boomer cohort.
I spent my teen years( in the 70’s recession) trying to find a part time job, any job in Nova Scotia.
Then in the early 80’s in the continued recession, moved to Calgary…the Alberta Oil Patch shut down… stayed a year and a half and moved on..
Moved to BC.
Spent 5 years working at blue collar jobs when they were available.

Please dont tell me about “competing with a generation that glutted to workforce”

I lived it and didnt whine about it.

As for Howards comment about “latchkey kids” in the 70’s/80’s
That described my single parent family to a tee.
Dad dropped dead from a massive heart attack at 44 in 1970 leaving mother to raise three boomer brats two teenagers and me…the youngest.
I was too young to work part time so I was expected to prepare dinner and cook the meals for everyone at the age of 11 during the school week.
I got pretty good at it while doing my homework.
Weekends were clean up time.

I looked forward to finally getting a seasonal part time job cutting pulp all summer with my Uncle at 13.
Peeled pulp was $60/cord and unpeeled was $30 a cord.
The black flies were the added bonus.
I was responsible for buying my own clothes,
entertainment etc as soon as I earned money.

Spare me your lecturing guys.
I’ve lived everything you whine about with a family too poor to send us to University unless we paid for it our selves.

I used UI for less than a year in my entire full time working life ( 40 years next year) and have never, ever drawn Welfare.
I learned at a very early age to ….save money because you never know what’s coming around the corner.

Enjoy CERB while it lasts guys because you’re going to pay for it for the rest of your over taxed lives.

#74 drydock on 04.01.21 at 5:06 pm

Fifteen days to flatten the curve:
17 March, 2020
381
days ago.

#75 Reximus on 04.01.21 at 5:07 pm

“Meanwhile 63% of Canadians have FOMO, expecting house prices to keep rising.”

—–

not sure how that makes sense when 65%+ of us already own…why would a current owner have fomo? current owners are probably having fear of selling out

People who own houses can apparently also expect things to happen. – Garth

#76 Looking Up on 04.01.21 at 5:14 pm

Garth,

Thanks for all the time you spend on this blog and the great information you give out.

For the life of me though I don’t know why you keep quoting Dane Eitel. Technical analysis doesn’t work in the stock markets and I’m quite certain it doesn’t work in the real estate markets. The last time you quoted him was a year ago I believe “Dane Eitel would think you’re crazy for buying right now.” and you posted his inverted flag breakout chart . Of course he was completely and utterly wrong.

A squiggle on a chart is just a squiggle

Would you rather I just reference things you agree with? – Garth

#77 "NUTS" on 04.01.21 at 5:15 pm

What is utterly fascinating is how it’s primarily the Millennials who are feeding this insatiable appetite for inflating home prices and filling the pockets of the very Boomers they say have taken away their future and all the riches the goes with it. So deliciously ironic. You know, the Boomers who gave their offspring the most privileged lifestyle in human history.

#78 FreeBird on 04.01.21 at 5:16 pm

House near us in Pbo just sold for $150K over asking. Less then a week. Priced fairly. They don’t last and few choices for rent. A contractor and his wife plus 2 young kids (and dogs) sold last week further north and ALL now moving into 3 BR apt he was redoing for them to rent out. Change of plans. Refuses to buy into this market and keeping moving options open. Sounds familiar. Other friends want to sell but would have to move into his parents (big house BTW) so it’s cash in/out but where to go? Crazy. Can’t even find a trailer to rent longterm. No joke. If you own a cottage or trailer good year to rent it.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:20 pm

@#70 Polecat
“Gen-X strong!”

+++

Body odor isn’t everything.

#80 Interstellar Old Yeller on 04.01.21 at 5:22 pm

“Forever mortgage” as a term hurt my heart, Garth. Ouch. Poor Toby’s picture is apt.

#48 Was outside cleaning up … on 04.01.21 at 3:39 pm

Cute joke. :) I hope that 12 year-old turns out to be a good neighbour who clears his sidewalks on time.

#81 Flop... on 04.01.21 at 5:33 pm

“Virtually all 11 sectors of the market are flashing green.”-Thor Turner.

My fave from this chart was Federal Reserve Banks posting profits of 322 Billion last year.

Green lights are flashing.

Disco, disco, disco…

M46BC

——————————————————

Visualize How Enormous U.S. Corporate Profits Really Are.

“U.S. corporate profits are hovering around an all-time high, despite the challenges of lockdowns due to the pandemic. And according to our most recent visualization, some of the most profitable industries and sectors just might surprise you.”

* U.S. corporations generate most of their profits in domestic industries, not international markets ($6.8T vs. $1.7T).

* The financial sector generates more net income than every other U.S. company in international markets ($1.9T vs. $1.7T).

* High-flying tech companies overall make less money than less flashy industries, like retail trade and durable goods ($522B vs. $860B and $645B, respectively).

https://howmuch.net/articles/corporate-profits-by-industry-2020

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:35 pm

@#55 Flop
“My Father In Law was strutting around yesterday afternoon with his “I got vaccinated” sticker on his jacket.
With the mess going on in Ottawa, how come we don’t get “I filed my taxes” stickers when we leave the tax office…”

++++

Because,
Usually the tax man takes the clothes right off your back….

#83 Stone on 04.01.21 at 5:46 pm

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:06 pm
@#65 NSNG
“And if you want to know what hard times are like then try competing with a generation that glutted the workforce and had 20 years experience/seniority on you coming out of school and another 20 years to go. ”

+++

Errrr.

I was born at the very end of the Boomer cohort.
I spent my teen years( in the 70’s recession) trying to find a part time job, any job in Nova Scotia.
Then in the early 80’s in the continued recession, moved to Calgary…the Alberta Oil Patch shut down… stayed a year and a half and moved on..
Moved to BC.
Spent 5 years working at blue collar jobs when they were available.

Please dont tell me about “competing with a generation that glutted to workforce”

I lived it and didnt whine about it.

As for Howards comment about “latchkey kids” in the 70’s/80’s
That described my single parent family to a tee.
Dad dropped dead from a massive heart attack at 44 in 1970 leaving mother to raise three boomer brats two teenagers and me…the youngest.
I was too young to work part time so I was expected to prepare dinner and cook the meals for everyone at the age of 11 during the school week.
I got pretty good at it while doing my homework.
Weekends were clean up time.

I looked forward to finally getting a seasonal part time job cutting pulp all summer with my Uncle at 13.
Peeled pulp was $60/cord and unpeeled was $30 a cord.
The black flies were the added bonus.
I was responsible for buying my own clothes,
entertainment etc as soon as I earned money.

Spare me your lecturing guys.
I’ve lived everything you whine about with a family too poor to send us to University unless we paid for it our selves.

I used UI for less than a year in my entire full time working life ( 40 years next year) and have never, ever drawn Welfare.
I learned at a very early age to ….save money because you never know what’s coming around the corner.

Enjoy CERB while it lasts guys because you’re going to pay for it for the rest of your over taxed lives.

———

You got UI? You so luuuucky!!!

I’m still waiting for a handout. Yup – Gen X have it bad. =(

#84 Reximus on 04.01.21 at 5:50 pm

here’s a weird story, my friends have (had) 2 places in gta, one a classic detached at yonge/york mills area and a country place on lk simcoe, (near john tory’s weekend palace in eastbourne). theirs is really a lovely but glorified drafty cabin on piers with no way to renovate it.

anyway they have been planning to tear down the simcoe house this month and build a modern place to move to full time in a year and then sell their city place. but with the crazy toronto mkt they listed the city house last week with the plan to rent a condo while the other place gets built, if it sold for a good price. well it sold for 250k over ask of course, but here’s the kicker: the quote on the build for the new house is being revised by 200K+ due to the increase in lumber and other materials cost increase…so not really helping them too much

#85 Another Deckchair on 04.01.21 at 5:59 pm

hey @36 NSNG

“Actually, I am an GenXer so I know exactly what ‘we’ went through in the ’70’s and ’80’s. ”

The age ranges keep changing; for years I’d be classified as GenX, but now the accepted age definition puts me by a hair into the Boomer category.

No matter what silly category you fall into, if you were young, starting out in the ’70s or ’80s, you were going into some “interesting” times.

The only constant is change, and we’ll see what the collective “we” get into in the next decade.

#86 lockdowns on 04.01.21 at 6:10 pm

another 4 weeks in Ontario.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/60986/ontario-implements-provincewide-emergency-brake

lol, this seems to have worked real well, buy hey as long as the market and real estate keeps rising, who cares ?

can we get a cheque for $5000 a month from trudeau?

#87 Faron on 04.01.21 at 6:35 pm

#69 Damifino on 04.01.21 at 4:59 pm

Any body forecasting GDP growth 30 years out just blew its credibility. – Garth
—————————-

It sounds like they tore a page out of the climate thumper’s handbook.

Just checking, is gravity still going to be working in 30 years? Sources say yes.

#88 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.01.21 at 6:40 pm

Phil on 04.01.21 at 4:20 pm

Dog is grate
Beer is still good
People are crazier than ever

cheerz

#89 Canada Vax on 04.01.21 at 6:44 pm

Garth your Vaccine numbers are missing some realities:

Look at Toronto as it approaches 600,000 jabs given.

Population 2.9 Million

But 18% are under the age of 16

At least 30% will NOT get the vaccine.

So we are dealing with a target population of 1.670 million.

600,000 over 1,676,000 is actually about 35% of those who are going to get a shot. Which is friggen amazing, considering where we were on March 1.

Justin warned the provinces to be ready, because the vax is flowing in by the Millions weekly.

As of 5 minutes ago. The provinces had more than 1,600,000 vaccines sitting in provincial freezers. That is why they are lowering the ago of qualification daily. One Toronto Hospital unilaterally lowered the age to 50 this afternoon.

The Feds have delivered about 7.5 million doses, and that number will be over 10 million by next Wednesday.

In Toronto, anyone 60 and over can get a vaccine in a few hours. By this time next week, it will be 50+.

90% of this blog hates Trudeau, but Justin has delivered, and is starting to swamp the provinces with vaccine, just as he said he would.

#90 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 6:46 pm

I’m reading the countervailing viewpoint that the Biden tax increases will do more harm to the US economy than his infrastructure program will do good, porked to the max as it is with unnecessary spending and short term energy solutions.

I’ve decided from now on to refer to them as “short term energy solutions” or “short term solutions” because the wind turbines and solar panels only last about 20 years and the batteries maybe 10. Another appropriate term I’ve seen other people use is “replaceable energy” due to the same problem. They thus are not “green”.

The more we rely on wind power, for example, the more of the existing wind turbines we will have to replace each year before we can get to building new ones. It promises to be a much larger job creator than I had originally assumed but it is like a hamster running on a wheel and will require continuous investment.

Of course the oil & gas industry isn’t much different, every year wells must be drilled just to replace declines from existing wells, but the EROEI (energy return on energy invested) is much higher (although declining, shale oil isn’t much better.)

Anyway, my main point is that Biden’s tax increases are going to make China and Mexico all that much more appealing as a manufacturing locations. And Biden’s assertion that he is only raising taxes on the “rich” is pure bunk because it will appear in prices, causing inflation. Everybody pays the same tax rate one way or another.

Some of the spending is definitely necessary and even Trump was trying to go about getting it done, but the actual amount dedicated to road and bridge repair is just a fraction of the total bill. The rest is pork. Pork spending, taxes, and deficits cause inflation.

(The tax effect can sometimes be seen as reduced purchasing power, but that has more or less the same impact on standard of living as inflation does.)

Combine this with the up to 1 million boarder crossers they are expecting this year, most of whom are looking for work, and the already high unemployment rate, and it does not look like there will be any upward pressure on wages any time soon.

Thus, we prove once again that there is an optimum tax rate above which tax receipts actually decline.

The good news is that it means WWIII is over without a bomb being dropped. China won. The America worker lost. By the end of the Biden term we will probably see that the China victory was total. After that they will take Taiwan, because it will be clear that the US won’t have the resources to intervene. From that point on they will be the world’s sole superpower. Sometimes patience is the best strategy. Use your enemy’s weakness against them. Let them overreach, and then let them starve in the snow like Russia did to Germany.

#91 DON on 04.01.21 at 6:46 pm

@Crowded and NSNG.

It sounds like i fit right in the middle in terms of age. zit sucked for teenagers as the older ones like crowfed were also competing for summer job positions. The forest companies started down sizing etc. The main cohort of Boomers were decades away from retirement and well entrenched in the all professions.

I was a teen in the 80s and witnessed the recession and housing bubble. At a young age (10) my mom explained what a mortgage was. The housing bust had them all scared shitless.

Like crowded I pulled my own wait and then some. It was expected. Both the Boomers and X have seen big recessions. The Mills won’t belive it till they see it. They must figure they are safe in numbers.

muhha ha ha ha DA DUM DA DUM….

#92 Canada Vax on 04.01.21 at 6:50 pm

I said above that 30% of Toronto will choose not to take the VAX. There is NO SHORTAGE of vaccine. But about 1/3 of folks are reluctant to get jabbed for a whole variety of reasons.

And that is not Trudeau’s fault. His job was to get the Vax into Canada, he has been outstanding in that regard.

#93 Steven Rowlandson on 04.01.21 at 6:51 pm

“Every province is screaming for vax, and the variants are winning.”

If there are variants of the virus there is no chance the vaccines will work even if they were properly composed and harmless to people. The best strategy is to strengthen the immune system with vitamins, minerals and a proper diet plus healing the gut of leaky gut syndrome. Last but not least, pray.

#94 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 6:52 pm

Not to belabour the VAX HOG theory of mine, it isn’t, here a recent graphic by Statista showing Mar 2021 vax exports and production, i.e., Can you spot the 2 nations that produce but DO NOT EXPORT?:

https://i.imgur.com/mcgInFZ.png

This from UK’s Channel 4 News a few days ago (Hint: the UK does not make Pfizer, the EU does and from the above graphic…you know it didn’t come from America the Beautiful):

https://i.imgur.com/70Bknmn.png

And the UK had the nerve to criticize the EU for its export ban threat.

There and be GRATEFUL Canada the EU is not the USA or the UK.

Per the above graphic in mind, go to Gov Canada’s vaccine deliveries page, scroll to first table and 6.9M of your doses are from the EU and NONE SO FAR from the UK or America the Beautiful:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

…misinformation my buttocks

#95 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 6:53 pm

#4 S.Bby on 04.01.21 at 1:04 pm
This is well worth the read:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/companies-stuck-with-big-downtown-leases-as-employees-work-from-home-1.5370807

The VEC found 43 per cent of workers in Metro Vancouver can and are now doing their jobs from home. And because they’re not coming downtown to work, they’re not spending money there anymore. If workers don’t come back it could cost downtown restaurants and retailers up to a billion dollars a year.

Personally, I don’t see this WFH trend changing any time soon.

————————————

I wonder how much office space could be converted to residential condos, the same way they used to make “lofts”? Housing crisis solved right there. Downtown reinvigorated too. WFH right where you used to WFW. Now you really don’t need a car.

#96 the Jaguar on 04.01.21 at 6:54 pm

Poor little Toby. Looks like his dog tag got caught in the grate and he must have panicked and pulled so hard the grate popped out. I bet he has a nice personality. Border collie would never be found in that situation. Some dogs are just smarter than others.

If that risk assessment company ‘Fitch’ is correct there might be quite a few peeps who find themselves in a similar situation after paying on average 150,000 over list. Humiliated at the hand of their own impulsive behaviour and lack of critical thinking.
Now where did I leave the keys to the Clown Car?

#97 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 6:59 pm

#17 Planetgoofy on 04.01.21 at 1:33 pm
What the hell Garth. If the clowns in control can add zeros on the deficit… why not throw 1 on your house?

————————————–

We’ll never run out of zero’s.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 7:02 pm

@#83 Stoned
“You got UI? You so luuuucky!!!
I’m still waiting for a handout.
Yup – Gen X have it bad. =(

++++
HAH!
It was sooooo hard being a Boomer,
The cops would arrest you for one joint.
And beat you if you talked back.
Cars had 8 tracks.
Seat Belts were for holding breakable packages.
Even gasoline had Lead in it.
The CBC was relevant.
FM radio was “IT”.
Earth day was invented.
Nuclear Bombs were built by the tens of thousands.
Soviet Russia had a Wall in Germany to keep people in…
Global Warming was just another heat wave.
Going to McDonald’s was a big deal.
Bullying in school was an expected right of passage.
Bicycles didn’t have electric motors.
Most people weren’t obese.
There were no billionaires.
More people got married.
More people had kids.
Less people divorced.
People knew how to cook from scratch.
Genetically modified was in science fiction movies with monsters, not in food.
Man walked on the Moon.
Man golfed on the Moon.
Man drove on the moon.
All that…without the internet, political correctness, gender neutrality, and CERB.
Somehow….we survived.
Imagine that.

#99 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 7:19 pm

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 7:02 pm

“Man golfed on the Moon.”

Good list but don’t forget the beatings. Corporal punishment was all the rage. Even the school principle could get out the ruler.

Interesting fact: The ball only travelled about 40 yards. I can do that on a bad day here on earth. But to be fair, I don’t have to wear a space suit to go golfing, I just have to bring an insane amount of money.

#100 Capt. Serious on 04.01.21 at 7:21 pm

Re: S&P500, seems unlikely 10 year returns will be good from such a high starting PE and facing rising interest rates, but dunno, I’m in anyway. Predicting things is a foolish game.

#101 orange puppy on 04.01.21 at 7:38 pm

#74 drydock
“Fifteen days to flatten the curve”

COVID-19, 20, 2021 …

#102 mike from mtl on 04.01.21 at 7:46 pm

#95 Nonplused on 04.01.21 at 6:53 pm

I wonder how much office space could be converted to residential condos, the same way they used to make “lofts”?
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Thought the same thing, Commercial RE is completely different market to Residential RE. Office towers are nearly always owned by a REIT and or pension investors. They’re not only hugely expensive (think in blocks of 500s of millions), and OpEx heavy, their value is largely determined by the potential leasable space. That’s why a REIT would rather have a storefront or units vacant for literally decades than even entertain real offers even one dollar less /ft2. Less rent = less value, can’t have that.

Technically yes it would be no problem to outfit a commercial highrise to a more residential, commercial are much higher floors (~15ft) and much thicker deck. If a Strata could come up with the cash to purchase the whole thing could be, but that’s huge money and I only know of exactly 1 example in Montreal which did so: https://imtl.org/montreal/building/Delano_Condominiums.php

Low rise “loft” conversions is one thing 10s of millions ballpark, high rise forget it unless the first REITs finally capitulate and the whole office space market unwinds.

#103 Cici on 04.01.21 at 7:48 pm

#4 S.Bby

Well, we’d all better hope WFH does end soon because if it doesn’t, a lot of businesses are going to shutter and that could bring big, big long-term trouble for the economy, not to mention kill tourism. I seriously doubt globe trotters will want to trek across the pond just to see beautiful Brampton, Whiterock, Surrey or Kitchener-Waterloo.

Once we’re all vaxed I predict a lot employees will be called back to the office. Maybe not right away, but it’ll be coming faster than they think.

And although lockdowns suck, I’m pretty sure they’re the best and fastest way outta this mess until the majority of us have been jabbed. Opening up just to close right afterwards is a waste of everyone’s time and money. If we stop this thing in its tracks, we’ll get a bigger, better and faster rebound.

#104 DON on 04.01.21 at 7:49 pm

Bad spelling in my last post…Garth it must be your website.

#105 My Gawd ... don't forget ... on 04.01.21 at 7:52 pm

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 7:02 pm
++++
HAH!
It was sooooo hard being a Boomer,
—————————————————
the black and white TV showing “The Beverly Hillbillies”

#106 ogdoad on 04.01.21 at 7:59 pm

ahh world post Industrial Revolution..a new one every few years now.

I was Three Sheets the other day and, while talking with my SO, I compared life of the middle class (us) to the progression of the DOW jones. After all, influences have FOMO’ed us into mass consuming of the very product that the DOW (or any SM) reps, right? Like, duh!!

Wanna make a little side dough? Talk to your neighbors…the average may indicate your next win.

Og

#107 WTF on 04.01.21 at 8:00 pm

#92 “And that is not Trudeau’s fault. His job was to get the Vax into Canada, he has been outstanding in that regard.”

Yes, Outstanding display of proactive management. Here in BC I will probably get jabbed in June. Im 60+ . In Washington State 20 miles away. 16 yr olds can walk in today.

You must be one of those paid PMO weanies. Or maybe just clueless.

#108 Ottawa Retired on 04.01.21 at 8:02 pm

Here in Ottawa, WFH is going to last forever. The parking lots at the municipal bus transit points are 95% empty (compared to 100% full pre-COVID).
My partner who works for the Federal Government, has already been told, she isn’t coming back to an office ever, and that she is free to work from anywhere in Canada (as long as she can log into the network).

#109 Northshore guy on 04.01.21 at 8:06 pm

422 Delmar Crt, North Vancouver
Listed for 2,299,900
Sold for under asking 2,050,000
9 days on market

Odd sale, nice house with great views. Should have gone over asking. They should have waited for a better offer

#110 Damifino on 04.01.21 at 8:06 pm

#87 Faron

Just checking, is gravity still going to be working in 30 years? Sources say yes.
————————-

I’d say so. That’s the great thing about fundamental physics. You can’t alter it through an Order In Council. But the Libs and Dippers will keep trying. I’ve always admired their pluck.

#111 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 04.01.21 at 8:14 pm

It’s cold and snowing in cottage country.

DON’T EVEN THINK OF COMING UP HERE FOR EASTER!

STAY AWAY YOU SLIMY LITTLE PATHOGENS!

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#112 Cici on 04.01.21 at 8:16 pm

#20 Dolce Vita

According to what I’ve read in the last few days, the Brazil variant and the S. African variant are already here… in Québec anyways, so probably in Ontario too. That’s probably the main reason why we’re in a very serious lockdown this time.

TurnerNation may want to take notice of that fact. It will save him from having type thousands of meaningless words about bygone flus that no longer matter. This ain’t the same bug.

#113 espressobob on 04.01.21 at 8:30 pm

Analysis leads to paralysis. Generally a golf term but when it comes to long term investing, this old cliche still holds up.

Market timing is a pointless waste of emotion lacking foresight.

Experienced investors play the markets. Not the other way around by being played.

#114 Drill Baby Drill on 04.01.21 at 8:35 pm

“Two million people a day are being vaccinated.” Now here in Canada it is 20K per day.

#115 Km on 04.01.21 at 9:06 pm

Meanwhile if the banks were actually worried they could raise the prices of mortgages themselves quite easily. However they rather rake it in but be able to say when the shit hits the fan that they warned everyone.

#116 Wrk.dover on 04.01.21 at 9:07 pm

Picture looks like a shorn sheep posing as an inner city baller…..

#117 Lead Paint on 04.01.21 at 9:13 pm

@#70 Polecat
“Gen-X strong!”

“Generation Next!” ©Pepsico

#118 willworkforpickles on 04.01.21 at 9:19 pm

#41 “There is no way bond yields will challenge dividends for several years. – Garth”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

True enough. (depending on the number of years but more like a few instead of several).
Both will rise in the next several/few years.
Yields…(just another word for interest rates on bonds) will rise as spooked investors demand higher rates for holding gov. debt…
As for equities/dividends,…(QE) as one of the not too distant future drivers of those rate increases – aside from inflation from a now expected QE to infinity mode of economic resolve (non resolve)…will keep the stock market propped up….and then – ultimately – that will fail.

Its like saying…no significant stock market crash is in the cards for the next several/few years, but a housing crash is.

Unprecedented runaway debt creation will remake totally unheard of economic fallout combinations of the past into some artificially created Frankenstein’s pieced together economic freak show of the future.

There will be neither a stock market nor a housing market crash. – Garth

#119 Trojan House on 04.01.21 at 9:22 pm

Belgium must lift all covid-19 measures within thirty days:

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/162742/belgium-must-lift-all-covid-19-measures-withing-30-days-brussels-court-rules-verlinden-human-rights-league-ministerial-decree-penalty-civil-safety-act-pandemic-law-coronavirus/

#120 Wrk.dover on 04.01.21 at 9:24 pm

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:06 pm

Peeled pulp was $60/cord and unpeeled was $30 a cord.
The black flies were the added bonus.

———————————–

The peeled chord took more many pieces, and then they stacked as well as greased pigs. Toward the end, some sadist invented 8′ long pulp wood nixing the four foot market. Handled by hand from the stump to the tractor cart to the ton truck, to the yard, to the wharf, into the belly of the freighter. I migrated to NS when the bottom fell out of that and the pit prop export market. Thank dog.

NS had always been a place where many occupations equaled one annual income, until recently. I dodged that pulp purgatory, but not the rest of it.

#121 Garth's Son Drake on 04.01.21 at 9:31 pm

All talk, no action.

If they want to stop the dirty lower mainlanders from spreading Covy to the interior this long weekend then take some real action and close the highways to all but freight.

Won’t happen. In a couple of weeks Interior numbers will be back up again, this time with the more deadly variant.

Then, the province will play around with more restrictions. Remember, BC just relaxed restrictions before what is now turning out to be a super spreader event (Spring Break) and lift off for the biggest wave yet.

Big White announced they are shutting down Monday due to a massive surge in bookings from the Lower Mainland. Take not this is after they cash in on the long weekend and all those lower mainlanders flood into town starting now.

All lip service, zero action. Same with housing. These issues will fix themselves. The vax is all that will work. Price exhaustion will eventually set in without any new stimulus measures.

Hard to see much upside in housing after this year. Although, I don’t see a drop, just doubt much more price acceleration will continue after the big gains this year unless of course the banks pull out more magic sauce and loosen up to keep consumerism red hot.

#122 cramar on 04.01.21 at 9:35 pm

“…putting them into financial markets now on the verge of a Roaring Twenties, post-bug romp.”

What followed the excesses of the last Roaring Twenties? The Great Depression and the Dirty Thirties! Then a world war in the forties that ended with nuclear weapons. If only those in the Roaring Twenties had a crystal ball to the future.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” —George Santayana

Oh, I forgot…the younger generations buying houses today were not around then, so they have nothing to relate to. Anyway, history is irrelevant because it’s different today!

#123 KNOW IT ALL on 04.01.21 at 9:42 pm

“Meanwhile 63% of Canadians have FOMO, expecting house prices to keep rising. So they carry on spending, buying and borrowing.”

And the banks keep on lending…… Maybe that should be your focus? Takes 2 to tango.

#124 Faron on 04.01.21 at 9:43 pm

#110 Damifino on 04.01.21 at 8:06 pm

#87 Faron

Just checking, is gravity still going to be working in 30 years? Sources say yes.
————————-

I’d say so. That’s the great thing about fundamental physics.

Climate change is governed by basic physics. I’m guessing you don’t understand it.

#125 Sunny Daze on 04.01.21 at 9:49 pm

No opening up of anything can match the liquidity being thrown around.

Let’s not pretend anymore.

Print, buy bonds, inject money and market operations.

That’s the name of the game. Service sector jobs coming back don’t lead to any asset purchases. In addition they were getting paid when they were off work. No new money. Possibly less money.

The taps will run full out or assets tank and money is erased.

Anything else is people putting a narrative on things that just doesn’t exist.

These variants out there now seem dangerous. Stay safe.

#126 Sunny Daze on 04.01.21 at 10:17 pm

Let’s just brass tax it all.

Nobel prize for economics if you can create the best algorithm for the exact way printing or bond buying affects asset prices across classes. The only metric we need now. Then we figure out spending and growth even before it happens.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 10:27 pm

@#120 Wrk.dovr
“I dodged that pulp purgatory…”

++++

omg

the black flies.
The Province had stopped spraying the previous summer to “knock down” the flies…
The summer we cut wood……unbelievable.
It was the mid ’70’s and every kid had long hair.
I lasted one week.

Black flies, peeling pulp, spruce gum, ….and long hair……
The final straw was when I wiped sweat off the back of my neck( under my hair) and my hand was red with blood and dead flies…
I got back to my uncles place that night and had my aunt cut all my hair off down to Sgt Rock stubble.

Next day.
Sprayed my hair, neck and face with bug spray……
Much better.
At least the spruce gum and my long lar wasnt an issue after that…

#128 willworkforpickles on 04.01.21 at 10:37 pm

“There will be neither a stock market nor a housing market crash. – Garth”

Not in the next few years there won’t be (is what I’m saying)

#129 Old Ron on 04.01.21 at 10:40 pm

DRILL BABY DRILL :

WRONG BABY WRONG

YOU CLAIMED CANADA VAXES 20,000 people a day. ACTUALLY WE DID 200,000 a DAY AND HAVE AVERAGED 187,000 A DAY FOR A WEEK.

I WON’T ASK WHERE YOU ARE PULLING YOUR “FACTS” FROM.

#130 leebow on 04.01.21 at 10:43 pm

There will be neither a stock market nor a housing market crash. – Garth

If RE behaved like a bond on the way up, doesn’t mean it’s gonna be a bond on the way down. Do not underestimate the behavioural aspects and liquidity.

#131 NSNG on 04.01.21 at 10:51 pm

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 5:06 pm

Don’t take it personally. This is not about what you did or did not suffer as a kid growing up. This is about what one generation did to itself and others and how they are going to scream murder when others try to take their ‘hard-earned’ million dollars in equity that they ‘worked’ for having won the money-printing lottery.

I wish it were some other way but the Canadian voter has painted itself into a corner. As Garth’s survey the other day showed, everyone wants things fixed but no one wants to give up what in many cases they don’t even need.

#132 willworkforpickles on 04.01.21 at 11:12 pm

#111 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
……………………………………………………………………………………………………

…is the hoedown cancelled again.

#133 leebow on 04.01.21 at 11:15 pm

#126 Sunny Daze

+1000

#134 millmech on 04.01.21 at 11:17 pm

#45 Faron
I have lots of time to watch my positions, LEAPS are not as vulnerable to theta decay like shorter term contracts. If it price movement is sideways(unlikely in the next year) I could run the PMCC, sell shorter term and use theta to my advantage and make some premium as long as I hedge my delta. I have lots of options as this is all house money from GME, lots more where that came from.
Speaking of GME if it gains momentum again I will go back in for 100 shares, if it drops just sell weekly CC and bank premium until shares are called away at my strike or just keep rolling the contracts.

#135 Cloud William on 04.01.21 at 11:37 pm

For the under 40 year old Canadians out there, trying to live an honest life but realizing your government may not actually be looking out for your best interests, I present 20 minutes of Atom Heart Mother. Fate if what you make.

https://youtu.be/MbpknojwNLo

#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am

B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!

#137 Valley of Kings and Slaves on 04.02.21 at 12:20 am

RE #105 My Gawd … don’t forget … on 04.01.21 at 7:52 pm
#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.21 at 7:02 pm
++++
HAH!
It was sooooo hard being a Boomer,
—————————————————
the black and white TV showing “The Beverly Hillbillies”

___________

Im Gen X – but raised on this … The Beverly HillBillies and the Forest Rangers cost me a poker chip… a poker chip was worth about a half hour of chores… Bugs Bunny and the Lone Ranger on the weekend “premium” cost me 2 …. Mom never had issues with “do your chores”.

#138 G on 04.02.21 at 12:21 am

One bit of good news first, then be very very carful what you wish for you and your kids!!!

Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN to fight climate change amid outcry from activists.
(Hopefully no one else will let it happen from some place else???)
https://www.rt.com/news/519904-sweden-experiment-dim-sun-gates/

Are you paying close attention???

PANDA Data Firm Chairman: ‘China Asked W.H.O. To Appoint CCP to Oversee Global Vaccine Passport’ 2min.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Bs97z0KoC3AM/

and

Watch Dr Naomi Wolf Discuss “Why Vaccine Passports Equal Slavery Forever” 15min.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/9QpKPPHHqUIN/

#139 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 12:46 am

#33 Dolce Vita on 04.01.21 at 2:36 pm
#28 Sail Away

You’re fortunate I like you.

The doses have NOT been received. They are being given to Canada as they have approved here. AstraZeneca NOT approved in the USA. Why Canada getting them.

7.1M doses to date (FROM THE EU), excl. imaginary 1.5M doses YET TO BE RECEIVED…

————–

Relax, buddy. I don’t get into liking or disliking, but can generally work with most people, although admittedly some are more difficult. A decent relationship is one where both sides are comfortable recognizing positive contributions or calling out biased theatrics. Speaking of which, lay off my Americans, because why should they be under any obligation to another country before taking care of their own? Even so… do you also call a plane with scheduled ETA ‘imaginary’?

From Lee Berthiaume of The Canadian Press:

“The federal government is also expecting around 1.5 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine from the United States on Tuesday which will arrive by truck and represent the first to come from south of the border.”

#140 Serf on 04.02.21 at 2:42 am

Think, for example, of a landlord who wishes to evict a building full of newcomer tenants who have gone on a rent strike.

His only recourse is to have the Toronto Police enforce and uphold his property relations and claim on ownership by the use of weaponry and violence.

Without the Toronto Police, he has no tool for eviction to enforce the collection of his rents. His only option would be tantamount to losing pennies which he does not want.

He would much rather that be financed by the state through taxation — there is a reason why a great many landlords and home owners have no problem with bloated police budgets under austerity of the conservatives, as long as none of the money is wasted on the other segments of society, such as $50 annual tax credits for single moms.

#141 Tyberious on 04.02.21 at 3:12 am

I don’t know what’s crazier: The RE market, the opening/closing the economy every time a few more cases show up (on a suspect PCR test which can give false +/- 50% of the time), or the eagerness of people to line for a jab still at the experimental stage.
Me? I’ve got my garage full of toilet paper and popcorn, waiting for all the bubbles to pop. They will some day, won’t they?

#142 Zen Investor on 04.02.21 at 6:31 am

DELETED

#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am

I’ve got a house.
I’ve got a cottage (in progress).
So, I’m thinking of just splurging some of my windfall covid gains from the frothy B&D portfolio on a new vehicle.
I’ll sell the Subie to one of the kids.
I kind of like that revamped Ford Bronco.
Do any of the car buffs out there have an opinion on that?
I have avoided North American vehicles like the plague for the last 30 years because they sucked compared to Japanese vehicles. But I can’t find a comparable “offroady” type thing amongst the Japanese offerings.
Anybody?
The cash is burning a hole in my pocket.

#144 45north on 04.02.21 at 9:12 am

More importantly but less obvious was the banks’ ability to issue new mortgages to the increased applicants. This was enabled due to the Mortgage Bond Purchasing Program (CMBP) introduced by the Bank of Canada beginning in March 2020. The program enabled the BoC to purchase up to $500 million in secondary mortgage bonds per week.

in other words, the Federal Government isn’t just standing by watching – it’s driving this train wreck

#145 Lefty on 04.02.21 at 9:58 am

#89 Canada Vax on 04.01.21 at 6:44 pm

90% of this blog hates Trudeau, but Justin has delivered

—————————–

Has he now?

Today we sit in 55th place in the world for vaccinations/100k people. I admit JT has set the bar pretty low for himself but 55th as a cause for celebration? What did the other 54 countries do right that we didn’t?

Say what you will about Pres. Biden, but less than 100 days in office he’s vaccinated 150million+ people and put out a $2 Trillion plan to build America’s infrastructure back green. That’s what a real leader does.

Meanwhile, Trudeau has been PM for 6 years and I can’t think of a single thing he’s accomplished. Nothing. Nada. You see kid, there’s a difference between hating someone and pointing out they suck at their job.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.21 at 10:32 am

@#131 NSNG
“when others try to take their ‘hard-earned’ million dollars in equity that they ‘worked’ for …”

+++

But that is exactly how I earned my million.
By hard work AND learning at a very young age that NOTHING is for free.
Count every penny and AVOID DEBT.
The 5 decades previous to Trudeau were a slow climb into the debt hole with a few years of actually refilling the debt Hole.

I’m quite sure Trudeau has never worked hard in his life and raising taxes is but another option in his carefree debt extravaganza.
In one YEAR…..
He has dynamited the debt hole into an unforseen debt cavern beneath the hole.
Doubling it’s size….. in…. one…. year.

Dont blame boomers for this disgusting housing price explosion.
Greaterfools willing to buy are to blame but I guess blaming everyone else is easier than standing in front of a mirror , pointing and screaming “IDIOT!”

And please dont tell me there are Gen X house owners also clapping their hands with glee as they sell for exorbitant , tax free , profits as well.

This literal Canadian house of financial cards will come crashing down soon enough, and our hideously over spent Liberal govt will be left standing with their fiscal pants to their ankle looking around at who can be “taxed” even more.

Just be ready for the pain

#147 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 10:35 am

#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am

Re: offroad vehicle

Yes. A Subaru will go anywhere a truck will. Hook up a trailer to haul gear and manure. When you get stuck, it’s much easier to rescue. Our goto hunting vehicle for many years was a Toyota 4Runner. When it blew a head gasket a few years back at camp, we tried the FILs Subaru Outback and couldn’t believe how well it worked. Similar clearance to trucks plus independent suspension lets it crawl over the big rocks. Light wheels/light body gives a nice ride on washboard and light weight easier in wet clay. Very impressed.

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.21 at 10:45 am

@#145 Lefty is Right.
“Meanwhile, Trudeau has been PM for 6 years and I can’t think of a single thing he’s accomplished. Nothing. Nada. You see kid, there’s a difference between hating someone and pointing out they suck at their job.”

++++

No no no.
He let the “budget balance itself” for 4 of those 6 years…….since we haven’t had a budget for the past 2 years we cant really count those 2 years….
We didn’t see a non existent budget balance itself …..just obscene cash burning, photo op, feel good extravaganzas…

?

#149 Steven Nicolle on 04.02.21 at 11:12 am

Haha the US will be closing their border to us soon as we will need a vaccine passport to enter their country the way they are getting vaccinated. By the time we get two doses here it will be late Fall at the earliest.

#150 Stevie on 04.02.21 at 11:13 am

This is hard to conceptualize. Here’s what is confusing to me. If a house doubles in price…did you double your money? Yes.

But did you double your purchasing power? Maybe not.

Perhaps you just paid with dollars that are now worth LESS, and therefore you had to use more of them than you used to do.

It’s all connected and a complicated concept. In essence this could have a trickle up effect…where the cost of everything increases due to the lower purchasing power of a dollar.

Comments?

#151 the Jaguar on 04.02.21 at 11:39 am

@#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am

Some things are worth waiting for…

https://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/id-buzz-microbus

#152 Sail Away on 04.02.21 at 11:59 am

In Elon news:

https://www.wsj.com/video/testing-elon-musk-starlink-is-it-really-a-rural-internet-game-changer/92E2D423-50F2-4873-851A-1D6FD54B657C.html

If you don’t want to watch the video… spoiler alert… the answer is a resounding YES!

For Elon-haters, I highly recommend you don’t let irrational emotions cloud judgment as to the globally life-changing impact of this. I’m pretty sure someone on this blog predicted the Technoking would once again pull it off. So prescient.

#153 Dogman01 on 04.02.21 at 12:16 pm

#150 Stevie on 04.02.21 at 11:13 am

If a house doubles in price…did you double your money?

———————————-

If you think of it like Trade in stuff and take out the paper money then you see nothing has changed. The house is the same.

It looks more to me that money had just lost 50% of its value regarding housing.

As well a wages paid in money.

#154 NSNG on 04.02.21 at 12:22 pm

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.21 at 10:32 am

Dont blame boomers for this disgusting housing price explosion.
Greaterfools willing to buy are to blame but I guess blaming everyone else is easier than standing in front of a mirror , pointing and screaming “IDIOT!”

Actually, who I blame primarily is Alan Greenspan. After Y2K and the market crash in 2001, he pumped like mad which drove the price of assets everywhere higher. He sent a flood of cash over the world. It wasn’t long before that cash came back and started buying property in NA.

He then handed the ball to Bernanke and Yellen and the money printing cancer metastasized from there.

#155 NSNG on 04.02.21 at 12:28 pm

I forgot to add, Greenspan is an employee and was allowed to make this mess because everyone was making cash.

#156 DON on 04.02.21 at 12:37 pm

#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am

What I remember, the Bronco was a popular off road vehicle where I grew up. I’m planning on taking a test drive see how it handles. Looks like a Tonka toy. Then again the Honda CRX appears to be the popular off road choice on the Van Island…even the older ones sell for decent money. I like the Subaru outback also. But one of my BILs had an 70’s Toyota land cruiser and it was a nice ride both on and off road. Good resale.

#157 Diamond Dog on 04.02.21 at 12:40 pm

I see MSN carried a story from Global a few hours ago on what Ottawa can do to address the real estate bubble Canada is clearly in. It’s basic plagiarism from Garth’s site echoing a summary of his words over the last few weeks.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/real-estate/three-ways-in-which-ottawa-could-cool-the-housing-market-in-the-federal-budget/ar-BB1feBDr?li=AAggXBV&ocid=ACERDHP17

There are obvious weird forces at play in the markets. Uber cheap rates have distorted the market place. Rates have nowhere to go really, but up. Central banks have been the big buyers of MBS’s in North America presumably because the rest of the world has no appetite for their risk and rightly so. If CB’s want this bubble blowing crazy train to stop, they know what to do… just stop buying MBS’s. If governments want to reign in this wealth effect generating real estate bubble they’ve blown up, they have to tighten regs. If they don’t, well, macroeconomic risk goes up. Basically, it already has.

The psychology of this housing market is also quite weird. It’s a pandemic pain to list a house for sale even if we wanted to and some with the means and a genuine motive still don’t. Call it “value hoarding”. “My house is worth that much, well, I can’t sell it now its as precious as gold! My precious…”

On the flip side, the cost of new builds has gone way up by way of high lumber costs as anyone who has priced out a 2×4 or a sheet of plywood knows well and it’s likely a new normal. “Ah, but we don’t have a climate change problem and we aren’t overpopulated, consume away!” Suck. Blow. We can live in a world of pretend all we want, but receipts at the till are telling us something. It’s not just lumber, its base metals and Ag commodities and it will get priced in as it always does.

Can incomes keep up? As long as markets and housing values keep rising or plateau, sure they can. It’ll breed wealth inequality, but we knew this. The question though, is how long governments can bleed out fiscally and keep blowing dangerous bubbles (real estate, debt, markets) before they hit a wall. It’s like witnessing a global spending orgy with “everyone else is doing it so it must be ok” group think ignoring the systemic consequences until we can’t.

When is the question. When will CB’s pull the plug on unsustainable spending? When will the markets have seen enough? Do we really expect the DOW to hit 65x earnings like Japan? Would any sane investor or politician want what follows? Do we want to hit the dot.com bubble peak of 44x? We know what followed and the S/P is at 36.16 now.

Can incomes somehow suddenly rise to offset the rise in the cost of living? Sure, as long as credit is cheap, sellers make out like bandits and the markets keep rising but this isn’t built on actual income. Key point. The Covid relief bill, some 1.9 trillion or so, some 8% of U.S. annualized debt, i.e. GDP, most of this money is going into peoples pockets to keep the economy from crashing. 8% of U.S. GDP this year (so far) is coming directly from the U.S. treasury by way of borrowed dollars. The U.S. Fed is likely to buy another half trillion to a trillion in MBS’s this year. Does this sound like normal times? Does any of this sound sustainable?

This kind of Fed spending from CB’s can’t last. It can’t and won’t. 50 to 60% of the gen pop will get vaccinated this year (lets hope), the economy will normalize (lets hope) but what will that new normal look like and can these new valuations be sustained on today’s incomes without help from the Fed? We know the answer. We also know that at some point, the economic problems the world over faces can’t continue to be papered over by public debt. Is 1 or 2 quarters of pent up demand over summer going to solve the world’s problems as vaccines end the pandemic (presumably)? What follows then? If the Fed stopped buying MBS’s and mortgage rates popped, would a crash follow?

We know the crash won’t come tomorrow, but late in the year… yeah, sure, why not. It’s really up to North American government desire to continue to take on more public debt and therefore, risk from bubbles post pandemic. My guess is they won’t, because, in a rational world anyway, they can’t and it all reverts back to the mean. Anyhow, got a day job. I guess I should be thankful for that. Good day everyone.

#158 Michael in-north-york on 04.02.21 at 12:57 pm

#111 Cottagers, you are here again, you superspreader? Stay in your neck of the woods and don’t come here. We have enough problems with our variants, don’t need your variants added.

#159 KLNR on 04.02.21 at 1:06 pm

@#143 Dharma Bum on 04.02.21 at 8:19 am
I’ve got a house.
I’ve got a cottage (in progress).
So, I’m thinking of just splurging some of my windfall covid gains from the frothy B&D portfolio on a new vehicle.
I’ll sell the Subie to one of the kids.
I kind of like that revamped Ford Bronco.
Do any of the car buffs out there have an opinion on that?
I have avoided North American vehicles like the plague for the last 30 years because they sucked compared to Japanese vehicles. But I can’t find a comparable “offroady” type thing amongst the Japanese offerings.
Anybody?
The cash is burning a hole in my pocket.

saw one on the road the other day.
looked like a big cheap plastic toy.
want something off-roady just get a wrangler or tacoma

#160 KLNR on 04.02.21 at 1:13 pm

@#89 Canada Vax on 04.01.21 at 6:44 pm
Garth your Vaccine numbers are missing some realities:

Look at Toronto as it approaches 600,000 jabs given.

Population 2.9 Million

But 18% are under the age of 16

At least 30% will NOT get the vaccine.

So we are dealing with a target population of 1.670 million.

600,000 over 1,676,000 is actually about 35% of those who are going to get a shot. Which is friggen amazing, considering where we were on March 1.

Justin warned the provinces to be ready, because the vax is flowing in by the Millions weekly.

As of 5 minutes ago. The provinces had more than 1,600,000 vaccines sitting in provincial freezers. That is why they are lowering the ago of qualification daily. One Toronto Hospital unilaterally lowered the age to 50 this afternoon.

The Feds have delivered about 7.5 million doses, and that number will be over 10 million by next Wednesday.

In Toronto, anyone 60 and over can get a vaccine in a few hours. By this time next week, it will be 50+.

90% of this blog hates Trudeau, but Justin has delivered, and is starting to swamp the provinces with vaccine, just as he said he would.

dude, do you know where you are?
smack dab right in the middle of a huge echo chamber that is this comments section.

#161 april on 04.02.21 at 1:16 pm

#138 – Fact Check

#162 SoggyShorts on 04.02.21 at 1:20 pm

#136 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.02.21 at 12:14 am
B&D ytd at 9.19% ytd woop woop!
—————
Would you mind sharing your weightings?

#163 Michael in-north-york on 04.02.21 at 1:22 pm

Trudeau did well, for the most part, against the covid crisis. Providing the CERB support was the right move. Leaving the day-to-day response management to the provinces is correct, too. The situation differs from one place to another, and everything can’t be managed effectively from Ottawa.

Would be nice to have the vaccines supllied faster. But, when you have no in-house manufactoring and have to make deals with foreign makers and navigate around the export restrictions, that’s basically a lottery. Canada may be in the 55-th place, but only a few countries are dramatically ahead of us, the rest are just a bit ahead.

I have concerns with Trudeau’s approach to finances going forward, though. He needs to present a plan of returning to balanced budgets, or a least to deficits that do not exceed the average annual GDP growth.

If no such plan, then I am not voting for him this time.

#164 Canada Vax on 04.02.21 at 1:33 pm

Lefty: As one old Guy to another, I beg to differ:

Fact # 1. Canada doesn’t make Vax (yet) Our capability to do so was gutted back in the 80s. So we have to beg borrow and steal what we can get. Unlike the UK and the USA which both make and hoard, we started at a disadvantage.

Fact # 2 As of 6 p.m. last night the Feds have delivered 7.445 Million doses

The provinces have only used 79% of their Vax, the rest is sitting in their freezer. Translation : there is no shortage. Considering that Canada is doing close to 200K jabs a day, that is amazing.

Fact # 3 The Feds will have landed 10 Million doses by next Thursday. And that will only get better, and better.

Fact #4 Places like Toronto have gone from almost zero vaccines on March 1, to close to 600k a month later.

At times like this all Canadians should put politics aside, as difficult as they may be, and get onboard. There are plenty of legitimate issues to campaign on just don’t make a national emergency one of them.

Everyone from the PM, to the Provincial Premiers, to the Mayors and Health Networks, are doing a heck of a job from coast to coast.