The ladder

The rating agency Fitch periodically parses our silly housing market. The report it produces goes to institutions dealing with residential mortgage loans collateralizing covered bond programs and residential mortgage-backed securities. That’s probably not you. But here’s the interesting conclusion:

Fitch’s Sustainable Home Price is derived by benchmarking the current local home price against the sustainable value suggested by the long-term home price-to-income ratio multiplied by the current income level. Under this methodology, Fitch views Vancouver and Toronto as currently overvalued by 23% and 32%, respectively.

Huh? Toronto prices overvalued by a third?

That would mean those suckers now paying $1.6 million for a so-so detached house are coughing up $512,000 more than the place is worth. Or should be worth. If that surplus were invested for 20 years in financial assets it would likely grow to $2 million and provide $120,000 annual income for life. So, this is consequential.

RBC’s new real estate survey is also scary. “The near-term outlook is grim for home buyers,” it states, flatly. “Further price escalation in the early months of 2021 has made their prospects even more challenging.”

The bank says price hikes in the last few months obliterated the advantage of cheapo mortgages (now increasing). And, as noted on a certain pathetic blog, the fever has spread beyond Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, London, Kelowna, Hamilton and Haifax to the hinterland.

The search for larger living spaces, and reduced attachment to live in, or near, core urban areas took many buyers to smaller, more affordable markets. This spread the housing fever around, such that these usually calmer markets recorded some of the larger price increases—narrowing their affordability advantage over big cities.

So, it’s more unaffordable to buy now than when the cost of money was seriously higher. “We expect affordability pressures to build further,” adds the bank, “possibly significantly more. Rapid price escalation in smaller markets will make buyers’ pursuit of a home they can afford even more challenging.”

In short, stop buying. Stop even trying to buy. Cease looking at Realtor.ca. Or HouseSigma. Or Viewpoint. Or any other real estate porn site. It’s pointless. We all just have to wait for ‘something’ to happen. More on that in a minute.

There is, however, one remaining exception. Condos.

In key markets where the crazies have been bidding their butts off for detached homes, condo buyers have been quietly finding value. “There is no comparison,” says an agent in Ottawa, where the market is aflame. “With a condo now there’s room to negotiate, while most people head for the suburbs.”

True. Condo prices have increased there by 17% in a year, but detacheds are up 30%. DOM for properties with dirt crashed by half, while they’ve actually risen for condos. And in Toronto, a similar tale. Yes, that 15-20% price plop this blog flagged before Christmas has been sopped up since, but sale values are still flat year/year even after a stunning 85% surge in sales. Now, says CIBC economist Benny Tal, investors are keen to grab DT condos in advance of the virus defeat and urban renaissance (did you see the news today about Pfizer?) even if they have to subsidize renters for a year or two.

And, yikes, look at what Benny just told Bloomberg: “If you think that Toronto is unaffordable now, you wait. Toronto is becoming like Berlin, like London, like Manhattan. It’s becoming more and more unaffordable, and therefore we know that our kids will struggle.”

By the way, the average Ottawa condo costs $407,000, while the average detached is $718,000. In Toronto the numbers are $654,000 vs $1,646,355. So if you want on the property ladder without choking on debt – and don’t mind germy people in the garbage room – it’s an option.

Now for the useful part of this post.

Blog dog Tim points out that cheap rates and FOMO get a lot of the blame for our collective housing stupidity. But there’s more. “I can’t help but wonder if the sale process facilitated by blind auctions can’t be partially responsible for helping the inflation of real estate assets,” he says.  “In a situation of asymmetric information where the seller and not the potential buyers know the quality (size, number, conditions on each) of the bids, it’s easy to see the potential for asset inflation where potential buyers are manipulated through limited information to squeeze every last dollar of their net worth into a bid, and the fallout down ‘the street when 3 weeks later the house down the street is listed and the previous inflated sale becomes the new ‘comparable’.”

His proposed reforms: (a) Ban blind auctions. Make the process transparent so all can see the amount of money on the table. “My guess is that this would have a net effect of dulling the amount of excess froth in an already dull market.” And, (b) force sellers to provide a current home inspection report.

This would serve two purposes: The first is to put an end to the horror of conditionless sales where the bid “winner” discovers that they have to pay $50k removing asbestos and replacing knob and tube electrical before an insurance company will let them take possession of their asset. This also creates a better assessment of true value. The second being that it creates a disincentive for real estate agents to re-list a property after no activity, changing the narrative that homes are a risk-free asset class that always goes up.

Good ideas. Easy to implement. Broad in effect. Cost to implement: zero. Tim for PM.

About the picture: ““Bernie” is an 8-year-old wire haired pointing griffon rescue we adopted in November 2019 during our annual pilgrimage to Scottsdale AZ,” says Michel in Ottawa. “The pooch had already been returned to the shelter twice and while he initially was very insecure, he has since settled down and is a very loyal, protective dog. On top of it all, he is a real “chick magnet”! I can’t tell you how often we get stopped to be told how handsome he is (primarily ladies)!”

135 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 03.30.21 at 2:22 pm

This weblog says UBI in unaffordable. Sure is. That’s the point.
The latest in this Economic Warzone we are living: BC, Ontario, QC: Shut down. Parts of Sask, NB: Shut down.
What’s the goal? Is it UBI? North American Union? New E-Currency? Crippling IMF loans?

-Easter lockdowns are the watchword. All old culture must go. Online learning was the plan from the get go. T
THIS is why Ontario/Toronto is being kept in a Grey Warzone. To roll out more of the New System.

.Italy prepares for an Easter lockdown

. TDSB asks schools to prepare for shift to online learning (toronto.citynews.ca)

.New data shows COVID-19 pandemic now ‘completely out of control’ in Ontario, key scientific adviser says

–Hint hint from 2020: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-collaboration-gates-foundation-develop
MAY 5, 2020 Albany, NY – Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Collaboration with Gates Foundation to Develop a Blueprint to Reimagine Education in the New Normal”

— The goal…is tight unending global control over our Movement/travel. For your safety! Rights mean danger.

.Trudeau on Twitter: “ These border measures are some of the strongest in the world – and they’re in place to keep you, your loved ones, and your community safe.” (mobile.twitter.com)

——————–
–Meanwhile the real enemy ravages. We are in WW3 and wags tell us, all wars are bankers wars. Recall what went down last year. No time was wasted eh??

“And in the latest move, on March 27 – the same day that the U.S. Congress approved the bailout bill making BlackRock a key financial overseer – Canada’s publicly-owned central bank, the Bank of Canada (BoC), suddenly announced that BlackRock will act as its advisor for a new quantitative-easing (QE) program for corporations – basically a money-spigot for a struggling corporate sector.

There was no tendering process for this role, and as one financial writer noted, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz appeared to be “opting to put urgency ahead of dithering over potential traps such as conflicts of interest, a rushed tendering process and bad optics.” [5]”

————-
Oof the Supply Chain.

“SHANGHAI, China, March 26, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — NIO Inc. (“NIO” or the “Company”) (NYSE: NIO), a pioneer in China’s premium smart electric vehicle market, today announces that the Company decides to temporarily suspend the vehicle production activity in the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant in Hefei for five working days starting from March 29, 2021 due to semiconductor shortage.”

#2 Adam Smith on 03.30.21 at 2:25 pm

So after years of saying house prices are inflated and will come down, Benny is telling us to wait because they will go higher?

#3 Annek on 03.30.21 at 2:26 pm

I believe when the bubble bursts, condo prices will drop along with detached homes. It is about “ herd mentality.”
People will panic and both will correct. How much, no one can say as prices are determined by the herd.

#4 Drill Baby Drill on 03.30.21 at 2:27 pm

Tim’s proposal makes too much sense it will never be adopted.

#5 Millennial 1%er on 03.30.21 at 2:33 pm

This country is a joke

#6 Brian Ripley on 03.30.21 at 2:35 pm

“Any conclusions drawn from the statistics and charts as to how those numbers are likely to impact regional prices going forward?” #80 the Jaguar on 03.29.21 at 8:42 pm

If you take a look at my chart of Full Time and Part Time Workers in Canada by Age since 1976…
http://www.chpc.biz/employment.html#Profile

… you will see that in 1990 Tim Berners-Lee created the first web server (ie: the consumer internet was born) and the plots of both full time working men and women ages 25-44 abruptly peaked and flattened. Older full time men and women (over 45 years old) continued getting employment.

A decade later the 2000 credit crash changed the mix again; older part time men began to take more of the available male part time work and by the next credit crash (2007-09) older women (over 45) began to take more of the female part time available work away from the younger female part time workers.

All of these trends of older people requiring employment continued until the Covid 19 lock down was upon us and then all age sectors of the employed dropped.

Conclusions? The demographics are changing. I’m guessing that the Covid lock down is going to produce another credit crash (if not already begun). The lock down is certainly affecting who will remain employed.

I would say that within another two decades, most of the boomer held housing will have passed onto their heirs.

If not their heirs, there will also be an immigration demand for housing as the southern populations continue to move north looking for employment.

Apparently the world has an excess of labour. As Friedman says, we have become a “hot, flat and crowded planet”.

If we want a vibrant society we should be aiming our immigration goals towards young people with highly functioning non routine skills and we should stop subsidizing people with tax incentives for having large families.

Do we really need to build more mega cities with ever increasing demand on resources?

No. We need to build educated societies that can provide just-in-time services.

The 2020 lock down and pending credit crisis is going to be another inflection point as the old continues to give way to the new.

Today we have the USD/CAD ratio breaking out to the upside. If it continues as some analysts opine, then the global deflation door opens a bit wider and the last decade of unbridled FOMO housing bids will look like every other pre-crash irrational exuberance that humans engage in.

Old cycles will give way to the new.

#7 Faron on 03.30.21 at 2:39 pm

#111 BillyBob on 03.30.21 at 4:58 am

Just can’t get me off your mind can you? Touching. Sad, but touching.

#8 Kurt on 03.30.21 at 2:40 pm

Tim’s proposal is great and will never be implemented. Every level of government is involved in pushing real estate prices higher, from defective monetary and housing policy at the Federal level, to refusal to provide up-to-date hydrology maps combined with continuing to provide “flood relief” at the provincial level, to zoning restrictions to maintain and boost house prices at the municipal level. The real estate industry and the complementary foolishness of most of the home-owning public have effectively captured all levels of government. This won’t end until we have proper financial crisis to clear this stupid Ponzi scheme away. Stay invested, stay diversified, and buy according to the rule of 90 – or rent. That way when the bottom eventually does fall out, you’ll be able to recover in time for retirement.

#9 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 2:44 pm

Re: WP Griffon

These are good versatile hunting dogs like the Munsterlander. A while back, a nonhunting disabled German fella in town was selling a 2yo German import WPG with zero hunting experience and no real exercise in the 2 years he owned it. He wanted $1,000.

Went to visit him. The dog was a basket case of anxious energy. I offered to take the dog for free to a perfect, active hunting home with big fenced property but wouldn’t pay for unproven, untrained goods. His wife was urging her husband… but no go, end of story.

I still wonder what happened to that dog. 10km of daily running and doing his instinctual job would probably have squared him right away.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 2:50 pm

@#5 Millennial 1%
“This country is a joke”

++++
You aint seen nuthin yet.
Just wait for the Budget in three weeks…..

#11 NoOneOfConsequence on 03.30.21 at 2:51 pm

The “doggie-bio” at the end of each post about the doggie pic has really captured my heart!

Love it, please keep that going!

#12 Billy Buoy on 03.30.21 at 2:53 pm

Shocking I tell you…Shocking:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/largest-tax-hike-generations-could-pay-75-bidens-next-spending-plan

Stock tip : Long Lube

One way to sell tar sands oil products in N. America coming soon.

#13 Pete on 03.30.21 at 2:54 pm

BoC has put out plans to start unwinding some QE. In a few months, when banks start to pull back as well, some reality might set in. Sad, but some will walk away from the mess they’ve gotten themselves into?

#14 The best chick magnet ... on 03.30.21 at 2:54 pm

I ever had was a pet crow that used to sit on my shoulder. Never failed me …

#15 Immigrant man on 03.30.21 at 2:59 pm

Well, after reading this blog I went ahead and stocked up on popcorn. Buying a house without even a report – that’s gamblin’! Even when you do have a report you’re gonna discover things that the inspector couldn’t pick up in an hour. Nasty hackjob shortcuts, code violations drywalled over and all sorts of expensive things to fix. But if you are gonna sell a nasty trap for the next guy – now is the time that is better then ever. Looking forward to the CBC sob stories about ppl that bought a nasty dump for a price of a palace.

#16 Guelph Guru on 03.30.21 at 3:07 pm

“We all just have to wait for ‘something’ to happen. ”

Inflation may be the straw that will break the raging RE Bull’s back. Only time will tell. This is one bull who has beaten the last one which died in 89.

#17 Puzni on 03.30.21 at 3:09 pm

Although Tim’s idea isn’t bad bad it wouldn’t work. People bid these prices without worrying about asbestos and sub standard electrical work. They just want the house ! FOMO is in ! Also usually bidders that have money, don’t offer conditions are the once that win the asset. Sellers are the kings. Regulation did very little to slow down the housing price growth over the last decade. We would need interest rates to skyrocket and 0 government intervention when housing corrects, but that won’t happen.

#18 Prince Polo on 03.30.21 at 3:13 pm

Informing buyers with transparency?! The horror!!

Better that we jump like lemmings into gargantuan mortgages so housing can finally make up 100% of Canada’s GDP. That, sadly, would be success in the eyes of many foolhardy citizens.

Is there ever going to be a “The Big Short 2: It’s Metric, Baby” movie made? Who will play Garth, I wonder……

#19 ogdoad on 03.30.21 at 3:15 pm

“The report it produces goes to institutions dealing with residential mortgage loans collateralizing covered bond programs and residential mortgage-backed securities. That’s probably not you.”

LOL! uh, duhh!! Wait, what?!

Keep your home kiddies! Buy, and keep. For a long time.
send your kids to local schools. Your daughter can move out after she’s graduated. The state is not your community – you, and your neighbors, are. Stay and turn of HGTV. They could sell a fridge to a person that lives where it is really, really cold!!! All those smiles and cleft chins…

Garth, crypo is going credit, weed and Tesla. ETF coming soon?

Og

#20 Ponnaps on 03.30.21 at 3:16 pm

People are buying high because they’re selling high… even if prices fall a third, so would my house that I sold.. Currently carrying a 700k mortgage on a property worth 1.7m by doing just that.. easily serviceable debt with the option of renting my basement should the interest rates rise..

T2 wants those foreign remittances that come in for down payment.. great way of pumping money in to the general economy without having to produce anything… why else is the cad so strong against the currencies of immigrant countries..

Win win all around.. what seems to be the problem here?

#21 VGRO and chill on 03.30.21 at 3:24 pm

#5 Millennial 1%er on 03.30.21 at 2:33 pm
This country is a joke

——

Just wait until they bring back 40 year mortgages.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 3:35 pm

@#7 Faron
“Just can’t get me off your mind can you?”

+++

Have you ever had a scab that , even though you know you shouldn’t pick at it…..you do?

#23 dave on 03.30.21 at 3:38 pm

Government intervention has not worked in the past 10 years – Is not going to start now!!! Up she goes with no ceiling

#24 Faron on 03.30.21 at 3:39 pm

#14 The best chick magnet … on 03.30.21 at 2:54 pm

I ever had was a pet crow that used to sit on my shoulder. Never failed me …

There’s a fellow who skis at Mt. Washington in a… santa-esque suit who has a pet crow that follows him. Flies along when he rides the lift and then flies back down as he skis. Apparently his wife does the same.

#25 an investor on 03.30.21 at 3:41 pm

I get depressed reading this blog. It’s always bad news.

There’s a great fix for that. – Garth

#26 Linda on 03.30.21 at 3:46 pm

‘Bernie’ is indeed a cutie:) Also ‘Tim’s’ suggestions are spot on.

About prices. As noted on this blog, materials costs have soared. Some might think this a temporary, but seems to me there are more than sufficient disaster demands to keep the material prices at current levels. Labor ditto. Also, what about the free market? Yes, prices for housing these days is way beyond actual value in ‘normal’ times, but what if this is the new normal? Lets say prices do drop to ‘true’ valuations. What kind of economic disaster would have to occur to allow that to happen? Scary times, indeed.

#27 NOTHING SURPRISES on 03.30.21 at 3:47 pm

Yesterday you stated:

Nope. He’s illegally making himself a beneficiary. – Garth
——————————————————————–
I disagreed and you told me I didn’t understand.

Sorry Garth!

POA’s can be named as a beneficiary.
Check with a legal beagal!

Irrelevant. A POA cannot name him/herself a bene, as this guy wants. Be more careful, as you look a little foolish. – Garth

#28 TurnerNation on 03.30.21 at 3:54 pm

Ah yes the Easter economic lockdowns more to come. The entire country must be shut down by Easter, in my opinion

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-march-30-2021-vaccine-update-1.5969379
“‘Don’t make plans for Easter’: Ford hints at restrictions as Ontario sees 2,336 new COVID-19 cases”

………………
-Hey locking down EVERYBODY really worked?

.About 78% of people who have been hospitalized, needed a ventilator or died from Covid-19 have been overweight or obese, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a new study Monday. (cnbc.com)

.Canada’s nursing homes have worst record for COVID-19 deaths among wealthy nations: reportNews Links (cbc.ca)

===============

– Still agape over these lockdown protests. Did you ever think, after winning WW2 that would you see people marching in this country, for freedom?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFnm7oQPDYhXA-JnXmCszdQ

— Again watch the animals and food supply animals. All these may be setting up for more Culls. See: mink
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/two-cats-in-montreal-test-positive-for-covid-19-1.5353910

——————

– This appears to be the goalpost:

https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-digital-id-plan

What great countries are using this now! Our leaders praise China’s system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_passport

An internal passport is an identity document. Uses for internal passports have included restricting citizens of a subdivided state to employment in their own area (preventing their migration to richer cities or regions), clearly recording the ethnicity of citizens to enforce segregation or prevent passing, and controlling access to sensitive sites or closed cities

Countries that currently have internal passports include:
China (Hukou),
North Korea (hoju),

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.21 at 3:54 pm

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 2:50 pm
@#5 Millennial 1%
“This country is a joke”

++++
You aint seen nuthin yet.
Just wait for the Budget in three weeks…..
—————-
Guys,
Don’t let me hanging.
Tell the joke.
I need a good laugh.

#30 TFSA margin update first quarter on 03.30.21 at 3:57 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
And thanks for letting me post

I am offering my experience borrowing 12,000 and investing for one year, and then in January 2022 deposit the money into my TFSA

I originally posted in December 2020 about my plan
As the first quarter comes to a close heres my update.

The goal in 12 months is to pay off my margin account by depositing 1,000 per month on margin, rather than saving the money each month into a savings account.

Second, the monthly dividend exceed the monthly interest payment and make more than I did in 2020

If you recall I made about $60 interest last year in a savings account.

Finally, Capital preservation and any capital gains is a bonus!

So last December I bought
ZWB, the reason was I read that banks will be the big winners with raising rates. and the yield was a nice 6.1 percent.
ZWU, the reason I bought, utilities are boring, so I will persevere my capital while earning a nice 7.63 yield.

In conclusion
In the first three months I earned $204 in dividends and paid $106 in interest. For a net gain of $97, one goal completed.

Capital preservation was met goal accomplished.

Now for the bonus unrealized capital gains
ZWB almost $1,000
ZWU almost $100

Margin account less than 9,000.

I will admit that borrowing money to invest was nerve racking especially for the first two month as ZWU was lower than purchase price.

I wanted to share my experiences

Have a great week everyone.

#31 Paterfamilias on 03.30.21 at 3:58 pm

1) Ban blind auctions. 2) Force sellers to provide inspection report. I understand the antipathy to blind auctions and the desirability of a report. Just fwiw, I am neither a realtor nor a real estate lawyer.

1) I have never participated in a blind auction. When I have been offered the opportunity to do so (as a buyer), I have said ” no thanks ”. I always figured the seller(s) and realtor could ask whatever they liked and I could reply, however I liked. Perhaps I have just been lucky in being able to go on living without a specific piece of real estate. I agree on eliminating feeding frenzies – but they occur only when folks show up.

2) The inspection report is made to and the property of the person paying for it. As a purchaser, how much do I want to rely upon a report prepared for the seller ? Maybe of more importance, what does ”current” mean. If it is based on the supposition that every house is selling instantly, that is not what is happening where I live and in a slow market a property can be on the market for an extended period of time. When would a seller be obliged to obtain a newer inspection report because the previous one was no longer ”current” ? After 30 days, 90 days, when ? It’s no use to say after a reasonable period, because when a dispute ends up with the lawyers for both sides, lawyers (especially the ones that have become judges) are notoriously reluctant to accept the words ”well everybody knows” as a legal definition.

What about an arrangement whereby a prospective purchaser pays for an inspection report and, when that specific purchaser buys the property (if that happens), then the seller re-imburses the cost of the inspection ?

#32 NSNG on 03.30.21 at 3:58 pm

I’m surprised the free market hasn’t solved this yet.

The first realtor that announces it will have an open, transparent bidding process will be flooded with buyers.

If all buyers flock to that type of realtor, then it will force others to do the same. Sellers may not like it but I’m sure they wouldn’t care if their house sold faster.

In a fast market like this, they may not care but if things slow down or buyers dry up because they have moved to the new service…

#33 RyYYZ on 03.30.21 at 3:59 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 03.30.21 at 2:22 pm

Do you lurk here all afternoon waiting for a new post to go up so you can be the first to comment? Sounds like you need a better hobby.

#34 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 4:05 pm

#15 Immigrant man on 03.30.21 at 2:59 pm
Well, after reading this blog I went ahead and stocked up on popcorn. Buying a house without even a report – that’s gamblin’! Even when you do have a report you’re gonna discover things that the inspector couldn’t pick up in an hour. Nasty hackjob shortcuts, code violations drywalled over and all sorts of expensive things to fix.
___

My back room had 2 layers of drywall everywhere, and two layers of hardwood flooring.

No biggie though, it didn’t cost me 1.6 Mil – I can forgive some BS in a 100+ year old house that cost 123K :).

#35 Richard L on 03.30.21 at 4:10 pm

I have stopped looking at the RE sites. I intend to hide under a table until after the explosion. Real estate is being treated like stocks on the old VSE at present.

#36 Dolce Vita on 03.30.21 at 4:11 pm

I hate Real Estate.

——————————

Return to normal and wealth stuff…weird day.

About the latest weirdness from Canada with AstraZeneca. My Tweet with links to UK NHS 67-70pp reports on AstraZeneca and Pfizer along with the # of doses of each administered in Rule Vax Britannia – judge for yourselves on fine points (Summary for each in Tweet & they both kill equally as well):

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1376890376464838659

—————–

All happy yesterday daily variant cases down then this happened (again, judge for yourselves):

https://i.imgur.com/513yDnu.png

Still a lot of weirdness in daily variant cases trend. Much afoot unexplained.

—————–

Vax’ng rebounded yesterday a bit to 187,209 with 921,142 unused doses on hand from Gov Canada:

https://i.imgur.com/adjIKUa.png

Still and at that rate the Finish date 32M ≥ 15 yrs old, incl vax’d to date, 1 & 2 doses:

February 5, 2022

Herd Immunity dates for different %’s at above rate:

70% November 3, 2021
80% December 5, 2021
90% January 5, 2022

—————–

Keep emailing Health Canada, Trudeau, The Pope telling them that if Canada dropped double doses for now and just SINGLE dose vax’d they would be done by, at today’s rate:

August 19, 2021

likewise, 80% herd immunity by:

July 21, 2021

—————–

Do they listen?

No.

Just like people buying RE in Canada now and ignoring this Blog’s advice including suspending all financial common sense.

#37 Timmy on 03.30.21 at 4:12 pm

You’re advising people to buy condos? You should know better… Ever increasing strata fees, special assessment charges, skyrocketing insurance, shoddily built units, many of which leak, annoying condo boards, people renting out to Air B and B, building depreciates and you don’t own the land…

Where did I advise anything? (BTW, Ontario condos don’t leak….) – Garth

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.21 at 4:13 pm

I think Tim is a smart Home Inspector.
But if you force home inspections, you have to make sure they are reliable.
Therefore, cost of inspections could go up quite a bit.

#39 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 4:14 pm

#32 NSNG on 03.30.21 at 3:58 pm

I’m surprised the free market hasn’t solved this yet.

___

There really is just too many buyers and not enough houses. Those that are out there bidding up shacks to 1.6 Mil are the dumbest of the group – you don’t want to run with that herd as you’ll be forced to bid against them at some point.

I bet some bidders even think they can back out later if they win – consequence free. There is some evidence out there for this…

There’s no fixing this one – it’s irrational, and requires forced destruction to deaden the hormones.

#40 Dan on 03.30.21 at 4:17 pm

About Bernie – the bad boys have always attracted the ladies. :-D

I am glad to see he had found a good home.

I am reading the blog mostly for the dog pictures. Garth – please keep the photo comments coming. :-)

#41 Dolce Vita on 03.30.21 at 4:23 pm

Almost forgot…DV Yukon:

https://i.imgur.com/i1D3WRt.png

% of population ≥ 16 yrs vax’d:

68%

NWT & Nunavut not far behind.

Yukon West has to have achieved Herd Immunity at 79%.

————————

Tweet Cdn MSM to carry this great news from the Great White North in their National News and do they?

No.

Seems like the World just wants bad news nowadays. The more chilling the better unless it’s some boat that got unstuck in a canal.

Yup, just another Covid-19 on Planet Earth.

#42 R on 03.30.21 at 4:24 pm

Canadian Real Estate industry is ripe for a technological disruption. Gate keepers are in the way and provide limited ,if not negative value.This includes banks also. Block chain technology will dominate .Be on the right side of change.

#43 Faron on 03.30.21 at 4:24 pm

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 3:35 pm

@#7 Faron
“Just can’t get me off your mind can you?”

+++

Have you ever had a scab that , even though you know you shouldn’t pick at it…..you do?

Oh yeah. But our pal can’t be a scab because that would imply he works.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 4:25 pm

@#24 Faron
“There’s a fellow who skis at Mt. Washington in a… santa-esque suit who has a pet crow that follows him. Flies along when he rides the lift and then flies back down as he skis. Apparently his wife does the same.”

++++

His wife can fly?

#45 Jake on 03.30.21 at 4:30 pm

Insane US house price inflation making headlines…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/federal-reserve-under-fire-as-home-prices-soar.html

#46 bdwy on 03.30.21 at 4:30 pm

My back room had 2 layers of drywall everywhere, and two layers of hardwood flooring.
—————–
not really a problem is it? i’m ok with extra layers.

our 100yo east van dump had orginal trashed, fir flooring. (over very thick fir board subfloor) first try was re-finishing the (very squeaky) fir. after a dozen or so years of dogs and and general abuse the fir was quite sctratched up with no meat left to sand off and i hated the squeaks.
laid a 1/2″ ply right over top with a bazillion big screws no more squeaks yeah! finish flooring on top of that. prob 2 1/4″ of solid wood there.

love it. solid feel, perfectly quiet, extra sound proof.

been in brand new places that were deafening when someone walked around upstairs.

#47 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.30.21 at 4:31 pm

GONNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT.
Jaws is a classic movie that still makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. Clearly not just me. The meme still generates with my generation. And John Williams instrumental sound of the approaching shark still gets people of my age straight out of the water. Meanwhile, the younger generation dives gleefully into the still, dark markets like the young swimmer at the start of the movie. As the shark gets ever closer, one can hear the the fateful ,
DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM . “Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies, farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. for we’ve received orders to sail back to Boston and so never more shall we see you again”. DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

#48 Dolce Vita on 03.30.21 at 4:34 pm

#1 TurnerNation

.Italy prepares for an Easter lockdown

————-

We’ve been prepared for awhile with a perpetual Zona Rossa, thanks for reminding me since I live in Italia and a:

Buona Pasqua

to you too.

————-

SORRY Canada but I have to say this:

Yesterday GLOBAL National crowing how Canada’s VAX drive now #5 in the World.

As also an Italian citizen let me remind you:

30% of EU vax exports, a chunk of them to Canada…if they were suspended I would get vax’d near 50% faster in time.

So, KNOCK OFF the National Hubris it pisses me off.

Instead be grateful to an EU that does not HOG ITS VAX like the UK and the USA do and EU citizens like me, Germans, French, Spanish, et. al. that are not complaining about that (448M of us).

Crow about that instead.

Next time CANADA, give thanks to your ONLY VAX LIFELINE instead…especially you Global National.

#49 Captain on 03.30.21 at 4:34 pm

#20 “ People are buying high because they’re selling high… even if prices fall a third, so would my house that I sold.. Currently carrying a 700k mortgage on a property worth 1.7m by doing just that.. easily serviceable debt with the option of renting my basement should the interest rates rise..”

The problem is when the owner(s) walk away from the property because the Mortgage is more valuable than the property itself.

#50 Trojan House on 03.30.21 at 4:36 pm

I agree with ending the blind bidding process. Having did real estate sales years ago, multiple bids was the worse situation to be in. I had clients that would be totally pissed off at me when they didn’t get the house (because they put in an inspection condition for example). Putting everyone’s cards on the table and flipping them over would put the breaks on this I think.

#28 TurnerNation on 03.30.21 at 3:54 pm

Ontario with 2336 new cases. Didn’t this happen at this time last year which is why we are still in this mess today? And didn’t it peak mid-April and decline into May? Why are these so-called public health experts surprised by all this? Should they not have been smart enough to figure this out already?

#51 :-( on 03.30.21 at 4:37 pm

We need transparent real estate market stats like Zillow offers. MLS is an evil monopoly. May God’s wrath get anyone involved.

Canadians in general as so easily bent over the table. Now be a good compliant citizen and get sticked with the solution.

#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm

#24 Faron on 03.30.21 at 3:39 pm

There’s a fellow who skis at Mt. Washington in a… santa-esque suit who has a pet crow that follows him. Flies along when he rides the lift and then flies back down as he skis. Apparently his wife does the same.

———-

Does the wife fly with a broom or without?

A few years back I started throwing dog food on the roof for nesting crows to eat in the mornings and now they fly down and peck at the kitchen window during nesting season. No idea where they go for the rest of the year, but every March suddenly there comes a tapping as of someone gently rapping, rapping at our kitchen window.

I’ll let you know if Santa’s wife shows up.

#53 Flop... on 03.30.21 at 4:51 pm

With the container ship fiasco sorted out in the Suez Canal hopefully things don’t take too long to get back to normal.

One of my favourite parts of my month or so long journey through Egypt was the 2 day felucca trip down the Nile from Aswan.

The container ship being freed reaffirmed for me one of life’s most important lessons.

If something is causing you grief, don’t get upset with it, just give it a good tug…

M46BC

#54 >:) on 03.30.21 at 4:54 pm

Nothing to see here… Mask up and carry on little soldiers. And MS media too, wow, someone dropped the ball. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/masks-early-pulmonary-toxicity-quebec-schools-daycares-1.5966387

#55 Faron on 03.30.21 at 4:56 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 4:25 pm
#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm

Ha, upon rereading…

However, I didn’t see his wife, so the possibility remains. Stranger things have certainly happened in the Comox Valley.

SA, sounds like you’ve got the spring Corvid. You should be okay as long as you don’t catch the whisky jack variant.

#56 Faron on 03.30.21 at 4:59 pm

#46 bdwy on 03.30.21 at 4:30 pm

Do that ply trick too many times and it’ll be like living on the 13 – ½th floor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2Y7oo3iB40

#57 :-$ on 03.30.21 at 5:02 pm

We are about to see unprecedented changes to all world governments. But relax, the freemason motto is “Ordo ab Chao”, which means “Order out of Chaos”.

Trust the plan.

#58 Alberta Ed on 03.30.21 at 5:08 pm

With the Liberal “What Me Worry” financial strategy, don’t expect any substantive fix in Chrystia’s fudge-it budget.

#59 Neo on 03.30.21 at 5:09 pm

Eliminate CMHC and all our problems go away. Simple.

#60 cuke and tomato picker on 03.30.21 at 5:09 pm

Should we be doing some selective selling before the
budget comes out to avoid the 66/75 per cent capital gains tax?

#61 JSS on 03.30.21 at 5:13 pm

I don’t really care if Canadians want to pickle themselves in a lifetime of mortgage debt. They signed up for it. No one forced them to.

I’m only interested when the Canadian banks will be allowed to resume dividend increases.

Mass stupidity builds wealth for others.

#62 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 5:17 pm

#55 Faron on 03.30.21 at 4:56 pm
#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm

SA, sounds like you’ve got the spring Corvid. You should be okay as long as you don’t catch the whisky jack variant.

———-

Yes! Running around bumming food off everyone in the neighbourhood. Vax can’t come soon enough.

#63 YA GOTTA LOVE IDIOTS on 03.30.21 at 5:28 pm

ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK!

#64 Ballingsford on 03.30.21 at 5:34 pm

I’d like to hear what Millenials think of the whole situation. Unusually quiet. They should be demonstrating on the Hill.

#65 Regjeg on 03.30.21 at 5:39 pm

Tim’s proposed remedies will eventually be implemented in the hottest markets. How much longer and at what higher level of price escalation is yet to be determined.

#66 :-)) on 03.30.21 at 5:45 pm

All the way to the bank indeed. Although is the hole already too deep? May be too much to process for the average deplorable or dim thinking neanderthal.

A passport of sorts that will defy a distopian nightmare may be our only prospect. Nothing blockchain-reliant I hope. Alas, nothing an executive order can’t correct.

I do say, the wine is most delightful at this hour. However, the motto remains, do as I say, not as you think.

#67 Drew on 03.30.21 at 5:50 pm

32% seems low to me.

Should be able to look up info on any property like a stock

#68 Flop... on 03.30.21 at 5:52 pm

Open doors and curtains, turn on lights and fireplaces, AND now thoroughly check paperwork?

These guys are super busy, leave them alone…

M46BC

—————————————————————————-

Fraudster gets away with transferring title for B.C. home using forged passport.

Realtors and a legal professional verified the identity of the supposed owner through a scanned passport, which turned out to be forged, and the fraudster was able transfer title to his name

Fraudsters impersonated owners of B.C. residential properties to steal the homes’ titles and one of the con artists got away with it, according to the agency in charge of keeping title transfers secure.

The Land Title and Survey Authority of British Columbia announced the fraud attempts, “one of which was successful,” and advised those in the real estate industry to increase their vigilance when dealing with clients

“Legal and real estate professionals play a critical role in preventing title fraud,” said the authority in a release.

The perpetrator of the fraud laid the groundwork by posing as the owner of a B.C. property, an owner who lived abroad and was renting the home out. He sent the property manager instructions from a phone number and email address that didn’t match the ones authorized by the real owner.

The property managers then “shared documents (with them) that allowed the fraudster to impersonate the owners,” said the LTSA

https://vancouversun.com/news/crime/fraudster-gets-away-with-transferring-title-for-b-c-home-using-forged-passport

#69 The West on 03.30.21 at 5:52 pm

#29 Ponzius Pilatus

Trudeau wins 265 seats in the fall election

#70 Regjeg on 03.30.21 at 5:53 pm

Off topic: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-rob-carrick-these-preferred-shares-are-right-at-home-in-a-rising-rate/?utm_source=Shared+Article+Sent+to+User&utm_medium=E-mail:+Newsletters+/+E-Blasts+/+etc.&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

Garth, are any of the preferreds mentioned in this article better choices than the others, in your view?

#71 NSNG on 03.30.21 at 5:55 pm

#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm

A few years back I started throwing dog food on the roof for nesting crows to eat in the mornings

I keep reading this story of yours but haven’t been able to discern if the food is dry or wet.

I took your idea and toss out dry cat kibbles (I don’t even own a cat) for my crows usually once per week. They come and remind you on that day if you haven’t fed them yet. I can’t leave the house without the kibble jar. :)

#72 FriedEggs on 03.30.21 at 5:58 pm

#57 – I’ve seen that quote on currency before.

Solve/coagula

#73 Penny Henny on 03.30.21 at 6:01 pm

#33 RyYYZ on 03.30.21 at 3:59 pm
#1 TurnerNation on 03.30.21 at 2:22 pm

Do you lurk here all afternoon waiting for a new post to go up so you can be the first to comment? Sounds like you need a better hobby.
////////////

Why do you say that?
he’s quite good at it and posts interesting content.
RyYYZ, what have you done for me lately?

#74 espressobob on 03.30.21 at 6:05 pm

#53 Flop

What do the markets put into the equation. A stuck boat full of shit.

If this creates anxiety in someone’s space, then a greater question is presented.

That’s a paradox…

#75 Eastern Ontario on 03.30.21 at 6:07 pm

My house has been currently up for sale for four days. COVID has made things interesting. Potential buyers are only allowed 30 minutes for a viewing. Home Inspectors are only allowed one hour for an inspection. How much of a home can a home inspector inspect in only an hour? Especially a large home!
As such, that’s why a lot of buyers are skipping the home inspection. They don’t see the value of a one hour inspection. They just as soon book a second viewing to spend an extra 30 minutes looking around.

#76 Do we have all the facts on 03.30.21 at 6:17 pm

As I have mentioned in the past the real issue as I see it is that the Bank of Canada purchased more Canada Mortgage Bonds than were necessary and this resulted in fixed five year interest rates falling well below prime.

By December 2020 the Bank of Canada had purchased close to $10 billion worth of Canada Mortgage Bonds in the open market and this investment contributed to a surplus of mortgage funds and the rapid escalation of house prices. They seem to have realized that they may have overreacted and have decided to curtail their purchases of CMBs in 2021.

Without demand from the Bank of Canada investors will begin to demand a better rate of return from all forms of mortgage backed securities. Since Canada Mortgage Bonds are guaranteed by the Government of Canada I anticipate that the rate of return on fixed five year mortgages by the end of 2021 will probably remain below 3.0% until the economy has fully recovered.

The impact of an increase in mortgages rates on average house prices across Canada remains to be seen.

#77 Sunny Daze on 03.30.21 at 6:25 pm

Who can even pretend that house prices can come down without a massive recession. The condo market would likely implode within weeks of an adjustment.

It just can’t happen. Adults left the building long ago on that.

And no inflation either. If Canadians want to overpay for goods or services that’s up to them. And the generous lenders they have. Gas 1.08 at Costco.

Imagine if Dxy ramps in the face of what could be a flight to safety for reasons that will become clear a few months from now.

#78 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 6:28 pm

#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm
#24 Faron on 03.30.21 at 3:39 pm

There’s a fellow who skis at Mt. Washington in a… santa-esque suit who has a pet crow that follows him. Flies along when he rides the lift and then flies back down as he skis. Apparently his wife does the same.

———-

Does the wife fly with a broom or without?

A few years back I started throwing dog food on the roof for nesting crows to eat in the mornings and now they fly down and peck at the kitchen window during nesting season. No idea where they go for the rest of the year, but every March suddenly there comes a tapping as of someone gently rapping, rapping at our kitchen window.
——-

Dad had a pet Crow when he was a kid. It liked to steal shiny objects and had a stash of them out in the barn. One fall the Crow took interest in all the other Crows migrating. One day he was gone, and Dad saw him nevermore.

#79 tkid on 03.30.21 at 6:30 pm

Can we change the subject from housing for awhile? I get it, ok. I give up on ever being a homeowner in Canada, house prices here will never crash, to be a renter and retired means leaving the country, etc yadda etc.

Can we discuss the merits of ZWC vs ZWH vs ZPR instead? Or chat about macrame. Hockey. Anything but real estate?

Did you come here yesterday? Or the day before? Or the one before that? No real estate. Want your money back, kid? – Garth

#80 Baloney Sandwitch on 03.30.21 at 6:35 pm

Apartment REITs are pretty well priced. You can pick up a rental apartment for 2/3rd of the price you would pay for the same, plus someone else collects the rent and unplugs the toilet.

#81 hwy_str on 03.30.21 at 6:37 pm

They are saying can city is overpriced by 23%? Are they drunk?

#82 the Jaguar on 03.30.21 at 6:37 pm

#52 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 4:48 pm

Tap, tap, tapping at your window?

Sounds tame compared to the Ravens that treat the McDonalds drive through in Revelstoke, BC like ‘Cartel Territory’ if you dare stop there to gas up or grab a burger.
Each one of them is as big as a german shepherd and isn’t hesitant to grab your lunch. Beautiful creatures, but they wear their moral superiority over humans very well and with confidence.

My Spider Sense tells me ‘Tim” is a residential appraiser. CRA, or maybe even AACI. He mentions knob and tube electrical with such affection. Poor bugger must be run off his feet these days…..

#83 N on 03.30.21 at 7:02 pm

Fitch’s Sustainable Home Price is derived by benchmarking the current local home price against the sustainable value suggested by the long-term home price-to-income ratio multiplied by the current income level. Under this methodology, Fitch views Vancouver and Toronto as currently overvalued by 23% and 32%, respectively.
—————
Wonder how they arrived at Vancouver being less overvalued than Toronto. Is not Vancouver more expensive than Toronto and does not Toronto have higher incomes?

#84 Diamond Dog on 03.30.21 at 7:03 pm

#45 Jake on 03.30.21 at 4:30 pm

You beat me to the link Jake but excellent information is still worth repeating:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/federal-reserve-under-fire-as-home-prices-soar.html

I believe it was Garth who mentioned earlier in the year that U.S. home ownership levels are at 72%, the peak of ownership before the GFC. Couple this with the U.S. Fed buying more than $ 800 Billion worth of MBS’s in the last 12 months coupled with record low rates and we see historic bottoms to mortgage terms that buyers are only too willing to bid up values to cash in on cheap credit. What we are witnessing is government engineered asset appreciation that has created a wealth effect that has in turn pumped the markets higher, but its not sustainable.

What will happen when the government reverses course? A poverty effect, what else and when it hits, the markets will sell off adding to the poverty effect. Rising rates will also take a bite out of disposable incomes over time adding more fuel to this poverty effect.

On one hand, government is banking on pent up demand to generate enough growth to buffer these effects but what follows if pent up demand wanes in follow up quarterlies and negative sentiment sets in as values readjust to higher rates and market selloffs?

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

I’m not the only one saying there is epic crash potential here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE0dtr0iuKg

The looming question with Fed participation with so much buying of MBS’s is not so much the need for a government engineered housing bubble, but whether there is any interest whatsoever from international buyers of MBS’s when the U.S. sits at record 72% home ownership levels once again. It could well be that the Fed is the only entity in the world willing to take on the risk of owning U.S. MBS’s with the states in a U.S. housing bubble. If the Fed walks away from buying MBS’s, up go yields and maybe by a lot. Lets remind, this was the catalyst that kicked off record bankruptcies and home defaults beginning in 06′ and accelerating into the 08′ GFC.

Certainly Diana Olick of CNBC believes that once the Fed steps away from buying MBS’s, the party is over but in the meantime, right on cue like clockwork when sellers have FOMO on finding that greater/greatest fool coupled with the glaring reality that the economy really isn’t all that great from a pandemic that has literally knocked the wind out of 10% of the U.S. population (with lasting lung damage) and immobilized home owners in the process, housing inventories remain tight further driving up prices until, of course, greed turns into fear from tighter credit and shrinking equity/incomes, listings swell the inevitable reversion back to the mean resumes.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 7:07 pm

@#70 The West
“Trudeau wins 265 seats in the fall election”

+++++

Not a chance in Hell, unless Alberta embraces vegetarianism, cow methane as an alternative fuel source and 100% of the Province votes for Trudeau…….

Lets see how deep the “election vote buying” budget sinks us into the deficit abyss first before making delusional predictions about a Liberal super majority.

#86 The Dude on 03.30.21 at 7:09 pm

The Notary that I deal on a regular basis just informed me that there is a new form out for her regarding real estate sales.
If the sale price is above the appraisal price of the home, you pay capital gains on that amount above the appraisal.
She had to hire another appraiser on one to get the value higher to reduce the tax but they still had to pay on the principle residence.

Do you know where this is coming from? Is this just a new BC thing?

#87 Nonplused on 03.30.21 at 7:11 pm

I am not sure the idea of having a home inspection provided by the seller is a good one. The whole idea of having the buyer pay for the home inspection is to make sure the inspector has his/her interest aligned with the buyer. They already have too much incentive to under-report issues because they depend largely on recommendations from realtors to gin up business.

A better idea would be to make a home inspection a mandatory sales condition. You don’t want it to be an excuse someone can use to walk from a deal, so the seller should have the option to remedy any defects at their discretion.

So, for example, if the buyer’s home inspection finds asbestos, knob and tube electric, PBE plumbing, water damage, or needs a new roof, then the deal is a no go until the seller remedies the situation at his/her own expense or lowers the price to reflect the cost of fixing the deficiencies. This is sort of how home inspections work now but many times the seller can state “no inspection” or the buyer can offer based on “no inspection”. So making the inspection condition mandatory would be the way to go.

#88 dr talc on 03.30.21 at 7:15 pm

RECO says there’s nothing they can do about blind auctions. So, that leaves the government, ha ha ha, that’s right the guys who shut down the businesses and banned travel, that’s right, those businesses that are owned by tax paying, flag saluting, anthem singing, CANADIANS and the government is worried about your ‘rights’ at the offer table ha ha ha
Folks, multiple offers and blind auctions are the least of your worries.
The state of emergency is NOT going to end in Canada.
Why? because the tests and the vaccines are approved for emergency use only.

#89 Hero Dogo.... on 03.30.21 at 7:20 pm

Amazing!

https://twitter.com/nbcbayarea/status/1377025392159121414?s=19

#90 Ponnaps on 03.30.21 at 7:34 pm

#49 : The problem is when the owner(s) walk away from the property because the Mortgage is more valuable than the property itself.

Will that even come to pass when you’ve sold high to buy high? The delta mortgage ends up around only 50% of property value. Surely prices are not crashing by half

#91 Flop... on 03.30.21 at 7:35 pm

Pink Pollen Falling In Vancouver.

2016, the year that just keeps giving the hits.

It’s bubbly on the bottom end in Vancouver, but still the exuberance of 2016 on the high-end Westside has still not been matched as yet, but you never know.

Wasn’t enough to save this guy according to Zealty.

The details…

6633 Cartier St, Vancouver.

Paid 11. 2 million April 2015

Sold 9.57 March 2021

Originally asking 15.98

Probably 2 million dollars down the drain.

I understand, so does the rest of Vancouver.

What other assets could have they invested in…

M46BC

#92 Nonplused on 03.30.21 at 7:38 pm

#34 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 4:05 pm

“My back room had 2 layers of drywall everywhere, and two layers of hardwood flooring.

No biggie though, it didn’t cost me 1.6 Mil – I can forgive some BS in a 100+ year old house that cost 123K :).”

———————————————–

Renovating can be tricky. I did a kitchen/bathroom reno in an old wartime house once with my dad (who has a lifetime of experience in the construction industry).

After removing the outgoing cabinets and adding a bay window, it was clear that the ceiling needed to be refinished. The original idea was to just scrape off the ceiling spray and redo it. Nope. It had been painted so many times that it wasn’t going to come off. So we decided to add a layer of 1/2 inch and finish it smooth.

We also wanted to do ceramic tile in the kitchen, but there was nothing under it but 1×4 shiplap, either spruce or pine, I’m not sure. So that got a 5/8 plywood overcoat.

Same thing happened in the living room with the floor. The carpet was toast and we wanted hardwood. Upon removing the carpet we found a beautiful oak hardwood floor common to the era, but of course it was missing where some original walls had been removed and was filled in with plywood to support the carpet. Also removing it would have been a pain since under it was the same shiplap 1×4. So we decided to consider the original oak extra strength and just went over it with new hardwood.

Asbestos can also be interesting. My ex-wife wanted to redo her floors, but found out that the vinyl-like tiles contained asbestos. She was advised that she would basically need a hazmat team to remove it, so the best option was to leave it in place and go over it with the new flooring, which she did. Apparently with asbestos the calculation is about whether it is causing any harm as compared to all the asbestos dust that will occur if it is removed.

#93 Shirl Clarts on 03.30.21 at 7:47 pm

#34 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 4:05 pm
#15 Immigrant man on 03.30.21 at 2:59 pm
Well, after reading this blog I went ahead and stocked up on popcorn. Buying a house without even a report – that’s gamblin’! Even when you do have a report you’re gonna discover things that the inspector couldn’t pick up in an hour. Nasty hackjob shortcuts, code violations drywalled over and all sorts of expensive things to fix.
___

My back room had 2 layers of drywall everywhere, and two layers of hardwood flooring.

No biggie though, it didn’t cost me 1.6 Mil – I can forgive some BS in a 100+ year old house that cost 123K :).

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Dozer, that’s to mask the odour of the dead bodies in the walls. Inspections can sometimes miss it.

#94 cuke and tomato picker on 03.30.21 at 7:49 pm

We got the Pfizer vaccine today at the Marywinspear
Center in Sidney B.C. We were extremely impressed with
the ease and efficiency of the whole process.

#95 :-* on 03.30.21 at 7:53 pm

Don’t wait too long to touch your sky, tomorrow is not promised. Sincere apologies to all who missed the boat as there is not another on schedule. Blissfully unaware may be your safest haven at the eleventh hour. Hugs.

#96 Nonplused on 03.30.21 at 7:57 pm

#69 Flop… on 03.30.21 at 5:52 pm
Open doors and curtains, turn on lights and fireplaces, AND now thoroughly check paperwork?

These guys are super busy, leave them alone…

M46BC

—————————————————————————-

Fraudster gets away with transferring title for B.C. home using forged passport.

Realtors and a legal professional verified the identity of the supposed owner through a scanned passport, which turned out to be forged, and the fraudster was able transfer title to his name

—————————————

One of the reasons to have a mortgage or HELOC, some kind of lien on your home, at all times. Land titles does not verify the transaction if it is being done by a lawyer, but they cannot transfer the property if the bank has an interest in it. The bank will not release their interest until they are sure they are getting their money back.

#97 Steven Rowlandson on 03.30.21 at 8:02 pm

Anything higher than 1to5 cents on the dollar is too pricy when it comes to real estate. We need medieval interest rates to impose fiscal discipline.

#98 SW on 03.30.21 at 8:22 pm

I’d like to thank Dolce Vita for the regular, interesting and informative comments!

And, of course, many thanks to our greatly esteemed benefactor and blog host.

#99 Rook on 03.30.21 at 8:33 pm

#80 tkid on 03.30.21 at 6:30 pm

Can we change the subject from housing for awhile? I get it, ok. I give up on ever being a homeowner in Canada, house prices here will never crash, to be a renter and retired means leaving the country, etc yadda etc.

————————-

Welcome to the club, kid. The only way out of being a second class citizen is, I suppose, to save and invest, and hope your investments out-grow real estate (hah!).

Prices are 32% over-valued. But last week or the one before, Garth said prices – if they ever adjust – will only come down by ~19% I think it was.

So your $1.5 million tear-down is really worth $1 million, but it will only fall to $1,215,000.

I don’t see how this ends with anybody who bought this spring doing well. But I said that about last year, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before. I was priced out in 2010 when I moved to Toronto. I was priced out in 2012 when I cleared my student loan and finally got in the black. I was priced out in 2015 when I started earning $80k/yr. I was priced out in 2017 when prices fell from ‘insanely expensive’ to merely ‘expensive.’ I’m priced out now. My parents are on their 4th home in their third province, and have never lost money, from the late 70s to now. I don’t expect that pattern to change.

It is what it is, and nothing can be done. I suspect nothing WILL be done, either.

Though, the boomers sitting on all that real estate HAVE to die sooner or later, don’t they? Maybe by then I’ll have saved the $400k for a down payment and can lever myself to the eyeballs for a $3 million tear-down like everybody else? Or maybe the glut of property coming onto the market will be offset by the increased immigration, keeping prices high? Maybe the future really IS a country a bit larger than the US, with 1/10th the population, living in cramped, 500sq ft condo units like in parts of Asia with no land left?

I don’t see how this ends well, but nor do I see how it ends any way than what my parents have always said, “Ignore stocks and invest in housing, it only ever goes up.”

#100 Dolce math on 03.30.21 at 8:44 pm

“Fitch views Vancouver and Toronto as currently
overvalued by 23% and 32%, respectively.”

“That would mean those suckers now paying $1.6 million for a so-so detached house are coughing up $512,000 more than the place is worth. Or should be worth. ”

Ah not quite. The 32% is added to the 100% affordability. So the factor is 100/132 X 1.6 = 1.21 so
$390k overpriced.

#101 Garth's Son Drake on 03.30.21 at 8:58 pm

Garth, 840 new cases in BC today. Might want to pay attention to that.

November recovery by the earliest. This P1 variant is nasty.

#102 Grandma Sue on 03.30.21 at 9:11 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#103 Michael in-north-york on 03.30.21 at 9:30 pm

(b) Force sellers to provide a current home inspection report

That idea has both pros and cons. A home inspector hired by the seller will be loyal to the seller, and inclined to overlook mild problems. That is, if they want to be recommended again by the same realtor.

When buying, I prefer to hire my own home inspector. Actually did that recently, and he gave me a few valuable hints. Not much to push the price down, but rather to schedule some inexpensive but urgent repairs. However, once the sellers had their own inspector, they will be more inclined to refuse another inspection request.

On the positive side, no inspector will cheat big time, or they can lose their accreditation. So, a 50k size problem with the house will be less likely to pass unnoticed, but small undetected problems will become more likely.

(a) Ban blind auctions.

Honestly, that will be hard to enforce. OK, they will provide some kind of disclosure. But, do those figures imply a future surcharge? Or a discount? Not all bids disclosed, or maybe one of the bids is from the realtor’s friend who has no intention of actually buying?

Complaints will be hard to investigate, things will get messy quickly. All for a very limited effect on the house prices, as the root cause isn’t in the procedures. It is in the fundamentals: employment gravitation of big cities with limited land, low cost of borrowing, and the growing public debt that works against the future purchasing power of the dollar.

#104 Jane24 on 03.30.21 at 9:58 pm

… and they are panicking here in Briatain becasue Covid has made house prices go up 7% last year and they are expected to increase by 5% this year! That is considered to be terrible. I will never get rich off housing but at least my three kids aged in their 30s and all their friends have been able to buy their own home.

I am sure that dog in today’s photo is loyal and lovely but he is no Griffon. I have Griffons, champion Griffons and they look nothing like that fellow!

#105 Axehead on 03.30.21 at 10:30 pm

Warning: slimey inspectors beholding to seller or realtor. I’ve seen inspections ‘re-done’ by the seller after reviewing a potential buyer’s not-so-complimentary inspection results.

#106 DON on 03.30.21 at 10:34 pm

#47 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.30.21 at 4:31 pm
GONNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT.
Jaws is a classic movie that still makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. Clearly not just me. The meme still generates with my generation. And John Williams instrumental sound of the approaching shark still gets people of my age straight out of the water. Meanwhile, the younger generation dives gleefully into the still, dark markets like the young swimmer at the start of the movie. As the shark gets ever closer, one can hear the the fateful ,
DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM . “Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies, farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. for we’ve received orders to sail back to Boston and so never more shall we see you again”. DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM, DAAA DUM. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

***************
I saw it when I was under ten….last time I watched it.

We have a housing bubble…new dot com bubble and a pandemic. The economy wasn’t doing well precovid and COVID kick the can off the cliff and now, QE on steroids. Go easy into the dark night ..only fools or the inexperienced rush in.

Yields are still creeping up…and now we know via Archegos that not everything is as appears.

#107 Sunny Daze on 03.30.21 at 10:41 pm

#102 Garth’s Son Drake on 03.30.21 at 8:58 pm

Garth, 840 new cases in BC today. Might want to pay attention to that.

November recovery by the earliest. This P1 variant is nasty.

—————————-
This is becoming a whole new problem now. 100 P1 in a day. Almost 300 B1. One B1.3. Ontario might be in even worse shape over mutations. Stay safe out there.

#108 Louise on 03.30.21 at 10:50 pm

They should also cut out the buyers agent (no need for these if u have transparent auctions), therefore cutting commission to sell your house, which would likely result in more sellers/inventory.

#109 Grasshopper on 03.30.21 at 11:12 pm

#6 Brian Ripley

Apparently the world has an excess of labour. As Friedman says, we have become a “hot, flat and crowded planet”.

If we want a vibrant society we should be aiming our immigration goals towards young people with highly functioning non routine skills and we should stop subsidizing people with tax incentives for having large families.

********************

I agree. 100%

#110 Sail Away on 03.30.21 at 11:19 pm

#100 Rook on 03.30.21 at 8:33 pm

I don’t see how this ends with anybody who bought this spring doing well. But I said that about last year, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before. I was priced out in 2010 when I moved to Toronto. I was priced out in 2012 when I cleared my student loan and finally got in the black. I was priced out in 2015 when I started earning $80k/yr. I was priced out in 2017 when prices fell from ‘insanely expensive’ to merely ‘expensive.’ I’m priced out now.

———–

Aha! I spotted the issue:

‘when I moved to Toronto’

#111 morrey on 03.30.21 at 11:22 pm

“economists have expressed concerns that the fallout from continually rising prices include: homeowners unable to make mortgage payments when interest rates rise, homeowners unable to ever pay down their debts, mortgage defaults and rising unaffordability and inequity. It could also lead to severe loan losses for banks, failure of the banking system and a taxpayer bailout.”

impending doom

#112 On the sidelines on 03.30.21 at 11:43 pm

I disagree with the not enough houses. Enough for what? If you have a few millions to spend you’ll have plenty to choose from. Tons of new million dollar condos in Montreal. Whole neighbourhoods built in the last 5 years, all with extremely expensive condos. I bet we would have more availability of affordable housing if everything costed 20% less. So it doesn’t make sense. Prices got boosted up so obviously there are less cheap houses.
Last year i noticed tons of houses for sale around town (it is rarely the case). Many of the places are now fully up for rent (moving day is July 1st here and rentals for July come up now). The rents are double or more than what people that rented before 2017 are paying (rent increases are regulated here if the renter doesn’t leave). There was a ‘duplex’ for sale for about 500k last year. The price was about 200-300k (or maybe 500k less given today’s prices) less than similar duplexes because the place was a real dump. Finished. Well, this week i saw the listings for this place: three rental units: basement (sorry, garden level as they call it now) for 1100$ for 1 bedroom, ground floor (3 bedroom 2 bath) for 2700$, and top floor (3 bed 1 bath) for 2500. You people from the great Toronto might find this cheap. But most people here would pay around 1400$ for an upper floor like that, and less if you’ve been renting for more that 5 years. The rents increased out of a sudden, and it’s packed with investors. But we shouldn’t complain because the CMHC says that housing is affordable if 30% of my pre-tax money is spent on it. So Montreal must still be affordable for many people. But i have been counting my beans forever and my math just doesn’t add up: how do people afford houses, and boats and vacations and fancy strollers? How much money do people make? Because i sure don’t feel like the income statistics are correct.
Also, on the same street, duplex sold after being listed for 950k in 2019. Immediately after, both appartements up for rent, meaning an investor bought it. Astronomical rents (2600 and 2400) to keep up with the astronomical selling price. Since then, the apartments were listed again at least twice, meaning whoever is renting is not staying. So every several months, place ends up empty. And this winter they started digging in the basement. My guess is they are building a third apartment because their investment is not all that profitable. I wish they would publish the nationality and the mortgage amount for each house. I would have a blast going through that data. Oh, forgot to mention: all these houses, as most housing in Montreal, are about 100 years old.
Anyway, Montreal was going strong before COVID. It seems to me that when the foreign taxing started in BC and Toronto, the craziness started here. The pandemic accelerated a bit the trend, and especially for the suburbs. I don’t believe prices will go down unless the bubble really pops. And as Taleb says in The Black Swan, debt bubbles are horrible. The government will do everything it can to stop it from popping. Everyone that matters makes money and the government can apparently shoulder the risk.
The listings i was mentioning:
500k 100 year old lady now having a makeover: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22985805/4919-av-coolbrook-montr%C3%A9al-c%C3%B4te-des-neigesnotre-dame-de-gr%C3%A2ce-c%C3%B4te-des-neiges
The new Montreal: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22791838/1320-rue-olier-1403-montr%C3%A9al-le-sud-ouest-griffintown
By the way: the Lachine Canal is hardly breathtaking, especially during the 6 months of winter. I don’t understand how can someone not have something better to do with 2 mil dollars than to put it here.
And the best i found today: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22951023/1570-rue-leprohon-montr%C3%A9al-le-sud-ouest-saint-paul%C3%A9mard

#113 S. on 03.31.21 at 1:15 am

#69 Flop 03.30.21 at 6:52pm

re: title fraud

There was a spate of title fraud on properties in Australia while we lived there (2007-2012). It often happened while homeowners were abroad. We learned that title insurance can be purchased but it can be exy (Aussie speak for expensive). Ever since no matter where we live we buy it just for peace of mind.

On the subject of titles, we once purchased a property in the US from a private sale but when it came time to close on the property the owner wasn’t able to provide proof of title. It took the owner’s boyfriend who was a lawyer 5 months to quiet the title. It was a long wait, we were renting at the time, but worth it to us because it had a nice view of the mountains. Turns out the owner’s mother had paid off the mortgage decades ago but she had alzheimers and they couldn’t locate proof that the mortgage had been paid off. It was stressful. Loved living there though.

#114 Faron on 03.31.21 at 1:41 am

#95 cuke and tomato picker on 03.30.21 at 7:49 pm

Congratulations! Not a moment too soon either.

#115 BillyBob on 03.31.21 at 6:09 am

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.21 at 3:35 pm
@#7 Faron
“Just can’t get me off your mind can you?”

+++

Have you ever had a scab that , even though you know you shouldn’t pick at it…..you do?

===========================

What an apt analogy. Paradoxically, I find humourless people…highly amusing. So when a setup like “sagging” appears, easy layup.

Thing is, I expect the crankiness from elderly Austrian accountants. That’s the trifecta of dourness. But from hipster Oregonian scientists? Less explainable. I suppose the prospect of buying a house at peak price and then being indebted for the rest of one’s foreseeable life would make anyone grumpy. At least he’s switched tack from using abusive language. His fiancee certainly has a type!

Speaking of hipsters, they’re coming out of the woodwork here. Was at the park yesterday afternoon following another taxing day of Zoom language class and bike riding, having a beer with Ms. BB. Scores of runners and cyclists for whom spandex clothing was actually intended, teenagers, kids, dogs, guy playing a bongo. 22C and a view overlooking the city, light breeze and sunshine. The pent-up energy in the city to enjoy life again is palpable.

Just for fun, I closed my eyes and imagined clouds, rain, tents, needles and junkies, so I could feel like I was back in Beacon Hill park.

After all, life is too short not to appreciate it.

#116 Wrk.dover on 03.31.21 at 6:45 am

For a few days now on CNBC crawl;

No: hogs, cattle, lumber

Why not?

#117 willworkforpickles on 03.31.21 at 7:15 am

The fallout or bloodletting in the Real Estate market will be astronomical in the mid 2020’s and beyond starting in around 2 years from now (late spring&summer 2023). With renewals at nearly double interest rates set in 2018 by then.
Could interest rates be up near 6% by the summer of 2023?….Absolutely!
We’ll get there as inflation is about set to go ballistic.
The value of the dollar is going to decline quite rapidly with this.
Additional national debt levels will be rising to criminally insane new heights adding ever more fuel on to an already raging inferno of new debt creation.
Everything (for now) will spiral upwards in price for a time until a glut of savings are spent (so many saved dollars chasing fewer and fewer supplies) driving prices through the roof.
This will mostly be coming from WFH savings and massive stimulus support, a lot of it saved up/pent up…with an overwhelming eagerness to spend attached and all at once beginning soon this year.
….So this is all going to affect int. rates considerably later on?….forget what the fed has told you…they’re sweating bullets and don’t want to get real about it or will anytime soon if ever.
Every time the fed speaks its another bullshit story to tide you over to their next meet… with the BoC on tippy toes close behind.
2 things to consider aside of rampant inflation to soon come that is already trickling rates higher.
Investors even now, are becoming spooked (in Canada too) about their countries ability to honour its debts.
Investors see the dollar about to lose value through massive inflation that’s coming on and worry they’re profits are at stake (they are).
New and fixed rate bonds lose value as massively as inflation increases and holders of national debt demand higher rates to compensate. The debt creation machine breaks down otherwise and come hell or high water they won’t be letting that happen anywhere near soon (a possible recession/depression/stagflation breakdown is taking a back seat on the worry meter with them/over this too)…
The fed has basically announced that inflation isn’t a real priority anyway…in light of this, its not a stretch to say they will soon be saying the same thing regarding interest rates as well.
Their real priority is in keeping the cash hydrant wide open at all costs.
The inflation levels that are about to hit along with the enormacy of escalating new debt creation planned to stoke the inferno further is being widely underestimated relevant to real negative outcome.
This growing monster won’t just bite and bite hard…it will devour in the years to come.

#118 Diamond Dog on 03.31.21 at 7:40 am

Rob on 03.30.21 at 5:35 pm

“I had completely forgotten this site existed and am surprised to see it still alive after all these years – a friend recommended I read it back in 2010 or so.

I sincerely hope none of you have been here for the past decade listening to Garth and waiting for the “bubble to burst”.

Oh, BTW, said friend is now forever priced out of real estate in Toronto.” – Rob

I guess Rob doesn’t realize that there are 13 years of archived entries easily found on this blog that contradict what he just said. Isn’t it interesting that one could, without reading a single entry over 11 years from this blog, just assume Garth’s views on real estate would remain unchanged throughout this entire time. A blog that has proven itself time and time again as instrumental in moving the needle of government policy from 40 to 25 year amortizations as well as the also much needed tighter regs from OSFI and CMHC to boot, not that someone like Rob would ever know.

Humans never cease to disappoint. Some learn slow, while others don’t learn anything at all. A blended comment like Rob’s has Dunning Kruger written all over it. Not a compliment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.21 at 8:30 am

@#115 BillyBob
“I closed my eyes and imagined clouds, rain, tents, needles and junkies, so I could feel like I was back in Beacon Hill park.”

++++

Keep your eyes closed and also imagine the Surrey house Frau wearing way too tight Spandex for whom it was NOT intended commuting to WalMart in the Ford F350 full of equally obese brats sucking on 7-11 Mega Sized slurpees.

BC… the best Hell on earth

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.31.21 at 8:31 am

#94 Shirl Clarts on 03.30.21 at 7:47 pm
#34 IHCTD9 on 03.30.21 at 4:05 pm

My back room had 2 layers of drywall everywhere, and two layers of hardwood flooring.

No biggie though, it didn’t cost me 1.6 Mil – I can forgive some BS in a 100+ year old house that cost 123K :).

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Dozer, that’s to mask the odour of the dead bodies in the walls. Inspections can sometimes miss it.
____

There were dead bodies – chickens. In the crawlspace. My place was a working Farm a long time ago. Something obviously liked to occasionally grab a chicken and drag it under there for a nice quiet dinner. There was nothing but feathers and leather left on those things though, so no stinky. I tore that room down to the dirt and rebuilt it, and I found a lot of “stuff” in the process.

#121 the Jaguar on 03.31.21 at 8:39 am

Meanwhile, back at the ranch………A precursor to what’s coming April 19th…….I like the bit about “market psychologies”, which sounds like a polite way of referring to those who think “It’s different this time”..

+Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, also warned on Tuesday about the pace of growth in canada’s real estate markets, saying Ottawa should intervene in order to cool things down.
“We believe policy-makers need to act immediately, in some form, to address the home price situation before the market is left exposed to more severe consequences down the road. As it stands now, prices are going parabolic across a number of markets and the price strength appears to be feeding on itself.”
Kavcic called for policies that would break the “market psychologies” that say prices will rise forever, and which tend to bring about severe corrections.++

#122 IHCTD9 on 03.31.21 at 8:52 am

#92 Nonplused on 03.30.21 at 7:38 pm

Renovating can be tricky. I did a kitchen/bathroom reno in an old wartime house once with my dad (who has a lifetime of experience in the construction industry).
_____

I just tore the whole thing down – it was the original “summer kitchen” and it’s day was done as a main floor timber had been cored out by carpenter ants – I removed about half the timber with a shovel…

I found the upper portion of a stairwell above the ceiling drywall. Steps still there and everything. They just sawed it off horizontally, attached it to the new ceiling joists and left it there. I found newspapers that had been pushed into once existing gaps from the 40’s,50’s and 60’s. I found a bunch of jewelry in the wall, and several old blue medicine bottles.

Renovations get more and more interesting the older the house is :).

#123 Howard on 03.31.21 at 8:52 am

And, yikes, look at what Benny just told Bloomberg: “If you think that Toronto is unaffordable now, you wait. Toronto is becoming like Berlin, like London, like Manhattan. It’s becoming more and more unaffordable, and therefore we know that our kids will struggle.”

——————————–

Someone tell Benny to execute a 10-second Google search before making such statements.

Average price for a 645 sq ft (60 m2) flat in Berlin is around $450,000 CAD, cheaper than Toronto by some margin. And Berlin rentals are much cheaper than Toronto and strictly controlled.

https://www.wohnungsboerse.net/immobilienpreise-Berlin/2825

#124 the Jaguar on 03.31.21 at 8:56 am

There is still hope. Good article by Terence Corcoran in today’s National Post. “Tear down the ESG statues” .
Amen Terence.

https://pressreader.com/article/282213718616704

#125 Howard on 03.31.21 at 9:08 am

#99 Rook on 03.30.21 at 8:33 pm

Have you considered emigration? Are you under 35 (or under 30 even better)? If so, there are pathways of escape. Once you pass 35, it’s still doable though much harder.

#126 the Jaguar on 03.31.21 at 9:11 am

@#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.21 at 8:30 am

Thank you for making me laugh. ‘The Best Hell on Earth’. Good one.

#127 Dharma Bum on 03.31.21 at 9:30 am

#118 Diamond Dog

Humans never cease to disappoint. Some learn slow, while others don’t learn anything at all. A blended comment like Rob’s has Dunning Kruger written all over it.
————————————————————————–

Why be disappointed? Be grateful.

The preponderance of human stupidity is what allows the minority to excel.

If all humans were equally intelligent, it would be a zero sum game.

In order to win, there must be an “advantage”. Human stupidity is clearly a disadvantage, ripe for the exploitation by the intellectually advantaged.

So, don’t be disappointed.

Thank you, stupid humans!

Now, hand over your money.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.21 at 9:34 am

@#115 Billybob

Speaking of junkies and parks.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/03/31/china-pushes-to-expand-virus-origin-search-beyond-its-border/

I think Chinese scientists should focus their attention on the Downtown East Side Vancouver park Strathcona if they’re looking for the source ( or cure) of any Pandemic virus…

Conclusion…..Its obviously Canada’s fault.

#129 Neo on 03.31.21 at 9:42 am

https://www.cp24.com/news/experts-urge-emphasis-on-getting-outside-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-risk-1.5369269

“The stay-home, save-lives, nobody-do-anything phase, that’s not a proven public policy strategy,” Bergsieker said, likening pandemic guidance to sexual health discussions where abstinence-only messaging often falls flat.`

This is one of the most insightful things I’ve heard a doctor say during this entire ordeal.

#130 tkid on 03.31.21 at 9:53 am

Apologies, Garth.

And I checked the listings in Fort Mac; I can still afford real estate there, so the hope of being a homeowner is not entirely lost!

#131 IHCTD9 on 03.31.21 at 10:12 am

For years I have advocated for Ontarians to gtfo of the GTA and build a better quality of life in a smaller center.

This has now become more difficult, but after a quick look at MLS’s for 4 nearby small cities, I have to hold my ground I think.

1. 65 listings, 170K-2.2 Mil

2. 85 listings 240K-1.6 Mil (cottage/retirement zone 30 min+ north of 401, zero jobs)

3. 36 listings 360K-3.3 Mil (very small, very nice, almost all retirees buying, close to 401)

4. 96 listings 280K-1.5 Mil

Anything under 300K needs significant work, anything over 600K is overpriced. Many current buyers out here seem to be retirees and investor types, and they are buying nicer, newer homes in the 6-800K range which is what everyone here is trying to get for their once 400-600K sfd.

The retirees don’t care, they’re walking in with 7 fig’s cash most times, and won’t care if they take a bath on it in the end. The investor types who bought here this year are totally screwed if rates ever go up over the next 25 years. This ain’t the GTA, and I fully expect these 400-500K places that sold for 650+ will be back at 4-500 inside 3 years, and it won’t take higher rates to make it happen.

The mania won’t last, and even if rates stay the same, at least out here, many of these listings will go unsold, disappear, and the normal homes will float back down to normal prices. Everything depends on buyers from the GTA as most locals by far already own (older demographic).

So, I still say make a plan to exit the gta – everything gets better when you do.

#132 Howard on 03.31.21 at 11:11 am

#131 IHCTD9 on 03.31.21 at 10:12 am
For years I have advocated for Ontarians to gtfo of the GTA and build a better quality of life in a smaller center.

This has now become more difficult, but after a quick look at MLS’s for 4 nearby small cities, I have to hold my ground I think.

————————————

I think at this point the choice for young Canadians without rich parents is between emigration, lifelong housing instability and stress, or suicide.

First option is the only desirable one.

#133 tkid on 03.31.21 at 11:27 am

#117 willworkforpickles, given what you have stated, where would you invest and what would you invest in?

#134 Diamond Dog on 03.31.21 at 12:39 pm

#127 Dharma Bum on 03.31.21 at 9:30 am

Sage advice. I could do with another deep dive on the eight limbs, in particular, Niyamas Santosha. Breathe well my friend.

#135 willworkforpickles on 03.31.21 at 3:09 pm

#133 tkid
“where would you invest and what would you invest in?”

……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

If you had asked that question a month ago i would have told you about some copper stocks about to move up big. (they did)
Some good gold stocks with great potential sitting super cheap currently….its all about big inflation on the horizon.