‘We are watching’

For the past nine months he’s been chronicling the bizarre housing in his neck of the woods on IG. “It’s crazy,” he says. “Each day I posted listings that were either insanely overpriced, missing photos, photos that were poor quality, houses that were messes, interesting features like stripper poles, etc.” Apparently that’s an appealing feature in Kitchener-Waterloo.

Now, for context, K-W is a citystate of about 250,000 people 110km west of the Big Smoke, down the Killer 401. On a good day that’s a 90-minute drive. Once Covid leaves you could double that most mornings.

Last month gives a nice snapshot of what the slimy little pathogen has done to a cute city with a cutting-edge university and robust hi-tech sector. It ain’t pretty. FOMO everywhere. February sales were 67% higher than January and prices have swollen 35% in a year. The average property is closing on $780,000 and in the last few weeks a detached passed the $900,000 mark. First time.

One year ago that average detached home cost $673,825. A year before that, $597,965.

“We continued to see dramatic increases in the average price in February due to the persistent and fierce competition for homes in our region combined with short supply,” says the real estate board. “Buyers are very frustrated competing in this hyperactive market. The low inventory and mortgage rates are resulting in multiple offers, higher prices and creating a fear they are missing out on the chance to become homeowners in this unprecedented market.”

So the realtors have adopted the industry Frankenumber, called the MLS® HPI, which seeks to smooth out price trends and thereby mask current conditions – like buyer insanity and social destruction.

Well, back to our Instagram guy, chronicling all this.

“I would often post the sold prices of the houses I posted. Each week I also created a summary chart of the number of houses sold, how many went over/underasking and by house much. I had nearly 1500 followers, including many realtors when I received a copyright strike on March 23 from Instagram. It said that the Canadian Real Estate Association filed a claim and my account has been suspended for up to 30 days. The person who filed the complaint was the CREA’s legal counsel

“People want to talk about what’s going on,” says the face behind LOL Listings, “and yet the CREA is like some mafia of controlling information. It’s garbage. Just thought I would vent to you as this has been a topic on your blog for quite some time.”

Why would CREA move to shut this guy down – a little local social-media fishy with a scant fifteen hundred followers? Well, it could be because current conditions are extreme, dangerous, spiraling out of control and the housing guys know they’re short strokes away from being squished by a government hammer. It’s also an industry skewed to serving sellers, not buyers.

Look at the blind auctions. They’re all over K-W now, as in Langlely, Barrie, Kelowna, Ottawa, Halifax and every little habitation within two hours of urbanity. In Toronto properties are going for up to $700,000 more than asking. All thanks to this tactic. Realtors pick a price out of a hat, set a date for reviewing offers, then let buyers guess how much money it will take to succeed. There’s no visibility. No reporting. The seller can capriciously select any bid, or send several back for sweetening. Each potential buyer has no idea what others are offering. No context. The result can be an absurd overvaluation, setting the bar for every other house on the street.

Like this place.

The condo townhouse in Langley was priced at $820,000 – a healthy premium over the last comparable sale of $770,000. In days there were 110 showings, then 20 offers – in a blind auction. The ‘winner’ paid $1.4 million – or $500,000 above asking.

By the way, Langley has a pop of about 25,000, sits an hour south of Vancouver, with the average household income a little under $60,000. The realtor handling the sale said it was a feeding frenzy among seniors. “Nobody wants to go to a care facility.”

So this week a Toronto semi also received 20 offers, and sold for $575,000 above the ask. The last guy standing parted with $1.675 million for half a house. “It was wild as we saw the offers were rolling in,” the smiling realtor Anushki Bodhinayake told CTV News. “We knew it was a great house. We knew it was in a great neighbourhood. We didn’t really think it would get this much attention.”

Well, feeling pooched yet? This has the potential to destroy the livability of every major community, create two classes of citizens, cement a wealth divide, disenfranchise an entire cohort, create structural household debt, make shelter unaffordable and hobble the economy as billions a week flow into vaporous housing equity. In short, it’s an epic policy failure. It’s time those who have greased the wheels – realtors, central bankers, political leaders and our federal housing agency – stand accountable.

On Thursday CMHC said the Toronto, Hamilton, Halifax and Ottawa markets are dangerous and prices increase unsustainable. Realtors don’t believe it. March stats, they say, will prove so. They’re right.

“We are of course watching housing markets across the country very, very closely and carefully,” says Finance Minister Freeland. “We are very aware, also, of the challenges that many Canadians face — particularly young Canadians — in buying a home,” she said. “So it’s something that we’re looking at carefully.”

What does that mean? Measures to dampen demand, quell FOMO, make houses harder to buy and finance, leading blind auction players to realize their immense gamble?

Or will the feds try to ‘help’ newbie buyers with more incentives – throwing gas on the conflagration?

It’s your moment, Chrystia. Don’t blow it.

200 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 03.26.21 at 12:52 pm

First

#2 TurnerNation on 03.26.21 at 12:56 pm

This an investment weblog. There’s enough evidence that Big Tech is running the world. Didn’t Zoom make lockdowns possible? (Or was it the other way around.)

Weekend reading/watching. Look I don’t have time for long videos either. Play it at 1.25 or 1.5x speed.

— at 11:00 start in this video – it explains the real reasons for the Economic Lockdowns. And why education is being re-made. And why our Culture was shut down. Scary stuff. Yes the hedge funds/bankers have monitized it.
In short, all the global big tech companies are running this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQydOKSc1UU&list=PLnNSjVGWqTO4aW_lyVaB2LEgdqCkmQX-U
Investigates human capital finance, educational technology, faith institutions, surveillance, and the Internet of Bodies and how it operates via sensors, 5G, genomics, and bioinformatics .

–From 2016! It explains how we will be put into the Blockchain. It even says that We are the Ledger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zssd6eBVfwc
Learning is Earning 2026 – A partnership between ACT Foundation & IFTF

…….
This is the build back better $$. The digital “Health Pass” app is just the method to begin the tracking and social credit process. QR codes…were never used. Then, last summer they were everywhere. Training us to scan and be tracked. More ‘Alt Data’ for hedge funds’ use. We are the product.

– This one is long but I watched the first bit at 1.5x speed. Explains everything Big Tech (Oracle, Salesforce et al) have been planning for years for us:

Ep. 17: Sales Force, Biometrics and Human Capital Management
On this episode I will be joined by Alison Hawver McDowell discussing the role Sales Force and its founder a CEO in creating human capital bonds and biometric identity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abDZ5PrIehg&list=PLnNSjVGWqTO4aW_lyVaB2LEgdqCkmQX-U&index=10

———————-
-BONDS: We are being packaged and sold as bonds. Governments and Bankers aka ‘Public private’ partnerships. BBB right? We were bankrupted by CV, now having no choice:

..The blockchain is the promising technology that could overcome the above challenges and transform the SIB management process. The World’s first Blockchain Smart Social Impact Bond: … Blockchain platform can enable SIB investors to measure the performance of social impact at every step of the process.

..Social Impact Bond (SIB) Financing: A Pay for Success Strategysocialfinance.org › social-impact-bonds
Social Impact Bonds … Social impact bonds are unique public-private partnerships that fund effective social services through performance-based contracts. Impact …

..A social impact bond (SIB) is a contract with the public sector or governing authority, whereby it pays for better social outcomes in certain areas and passes on the part of the savings achieved to investors.
Social Impact Bond (SIB) Definition – Investopedia

#3 Dave on 03.26.21 at 12:57 pm

Canadian dollar is worthless….inflation has killed it.

Real estate is priceless. There is a correction coming but immigration dollars will take care of that.

TGIF

#4 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 1:03 pm

Do the real estate agents still take 5% cut on 1.5mil$ house? That’s a lot of money for very little work. Why do the sellers agree to this? I mean if it’s the sellers market they can presumably choose an agent that will work for less?

Chrystia has a background in… journalism. Justin has background in teaching drama. I am sure they will come up with a great solution to cool of the RE market AND look good doing it. One of the two at least :)

#5 Concerned Citizen on 03.26.21 at 1:08 pm

“This has the potential to destroy the livability of every major community, create two classes of citizens, cement a wealth divide, disenfranchise an entire cohort, create structural household debt, make shelter unaffordable and hobble the economy as billions a week flow into vaporous housing equity.”

Too late.

But hey, at least policymakers are watching closely (no doubt with champagne glass in hand). I’m relieved. I highly doubt they will do anything – since central bankers adopted moral hazard on steroids policy in 2009, asset prices have only gone up. They have no stomach to see prices go down, even a little.

As I say, too late. An entire generation has been thrown under the bus, and it will never walk again.

#6 uncle dave on 03.26.21 at 1:09 pm

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/kingston-home-going-up-for-auction-starting-price-350-000-1.5360751

This is how it should be done so people can see exactly what’s on the table and not having a realtor telling you to make your very best offer straight away.

#7 Robert Shiller on 03.26.21 at 1:09 pm

Any reason to believe that Halifax RE prices – as part of the inspiring Atlantic Bubble – are based on fundamentals? Garth – do you see Halifax (not broader NS, just the city limits) as a gain “safe haven” post COVID? Or will mass outmigration ensue?

#8 Jimmy Zhao on 03.26.21 at 1:11 pm

Never mind the real homes, people in Toronto are selling ‘Virtual Homes’ $500,000

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2021/mar/23/digital-home-sells-for-500000-in-latest-nft-sale

#9 Father's Daughter on 03.26.21 at 1:17 pm

Still don’t get why people like writing “first”
Congratulations?

I was talking to some people the other day who tried to buy in the area recently. Two high earning doctor household, one kid. Gave up on owning a detached, or even a semi, due to the madness in our hood. Bought a condo instead (still wasn’t cheap) However, they were not willing to throw down the kind of cash required for a semi, even though of all people, they could probably have afforded it. Couldn’t justify the value (or lack thereof). So here we are with dual high earning professionals who are feeling priced out of a basic house. At least they’re proof that there are a few sane people left in the market.

I personally don’t want to live in the US, for many reasons. However, I cannot argue that our many friends who have moved for work are enjoying a very high QOL in nice cities, including impressive houses that they paid a literal fraction for what we would pay here. Some consider coming back, but the cost-of-living is prohibitive. Intelligent and productive people will continue to leave if we can’t figure out a way for Canadians to live somewhat affordably, and I’ll wish them well.

Good luck to all.

#10 Father's Daughter on 03.26.21 at 1:20 pm

#3 Jimmy Zhao on 03.26.21 at 1:11 pm
Never mind the real homes, people in Toronto are selling ‘Virtual Homes’ $500,000

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2021/mar/23/digital-home-sells-for-500000-in-latest-nft-sale

—————————————————————–

Yah well virtual homes are totally fun. Doesn’t anyone remember playing the SIMS? That game was thrilling.

Seriously, this is nuts. We have people paying half a mill for a virtual home. This isn’t an isolated purchase either. Wow….

#11 Damifino on 03.26.21 at 1:21 pm

It’s your moment, Chrystia. Don’t blow it.

It’s Chrystia’s moment to feign independent action as a finance minister with no experience under the thumb of a self aggrandizing boss leading a minority government.

Expect nothing concrete and you won’t be disappointed.

#12 Faron on 03.26.21 at 1:23 pm

I have a hard time believing that paying almost 50% over asking is due to interest rates directly (cheapness of the mortgage). There’s something else going on here. I’d like to see the accounting here of the cash flows. Markets don’t go up unless there are new buyers, but how can there be new buyers at this stage? Or, where do the new buyers get their $$$?

An economy doesn’t function properly without data transparency. CREA preventing this is a huge problem and should be targeted by the feds or at the provincial level. One has to wonder if the disenfranchisement that comes with fraud when systems become too complex for accountability is a major reason for societal collapse.

Other news: TSLA down on a day when the stuff it’s typically correlated with is rallying nicely. This matters because the size of TSLA+ARKK is large enough to shake markets if they correct to realistic valuations esp. given that there’s a lot of leverage into those names that will have to unwind. TSLA is able to move double digit percentages in a day meaning it can wipe $100B away or add it in the snap of a finger.

#13 Ballingsford on 03.26.21 at 1:25 pm

I don’t know where people are getting the money to pay these insane prices. Has everyone gotten rich suddenly, somehow?

I feel for the entitled millenial generation.

#14 Guelph Guru on 03.26.21 at 1:27 pm

“will the feds try to ‘help’ newbie buyers with more incentives – throwing gas on the conflagration?”

Upcoming C. Freeland press release: As per suggestion from the popular blog run by G. Turner. The govt has decided to increase the 10% Govt help to up to 50%. Get your and other peoples tax money to work for you.

#15 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 1:30 pm

#4 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 1:03 pm

Justin has background in teaching drama.

————-

Hey, don’t sell JT short. He also dropped out of engineering.

The official version is ‘studied engineering’.

#16 Guy in Calgary on 03.26.21 at 1:32 pm

What a depressing and completely avoidable policy failure. I eagerly wait to hear Chrystia’s updates but am ready to be disappointed.

#17 Roial1 on 03.26.21 at 1:32 pm

Garth, do you still have that “squirrel” recipe book? this is starting to look like I may need it.

List of must haves: toilet paper, lots of rice, beans, ammunition, treated gasoline for generator, etc, etc,

I bet you are filling the bunker at the bank, right???

#18 Fled on 03.26.21 at 1:35 pm

TPS has a Cybercrymes dept which sends legal notices to Google to remove content on behalf of realtors, school board teachers and other useless public sector workers.

#19 Pete on 03.26.21 at 1:35 pm

There’s nobody to blame but the banks and T2 at this point. Why are banks refinancing mortgages for those on cerb and near default? Why are banks financing homes purchased at 25% above value? Why are bank rates not adhering to stress tests? Why are flippers not taxed at 30%? Etc…it’s a freaking pyramid scheme run by our government, which would be illegal if any of us tried it.

#20 Adc on 03.26.21 at 1:43 pm

Disenfranchised? Check.
Housing unaffordable? Check.
Structural household debt – look around.
Debt crisis coming? You better believe it.
Rate increasing? Garth, you already said it.
Accountability from the people who created this monstrosity of a problem? Fuhgeddaboutit.
Cynicism fully in place? Maybe, kinda, sorta.
Re-zoning needed to improve pricing on housing? A discussion worth having.
Belief that the Liberals will blow their opportunity to correct a situation that should’ve NEVER OCCURED? YES. If anything, they’ll likely exacerbate the situation.
Chrystia doesn’t have a finance background, get ready for more feel-good sentiments.

#21 FJ Powell, FJ Yellen, FJ Biden on 03.26.21 at 1:46 pm

Central banks will own it all.

Count on it.

#22 Adam Smith on 03.26.21 at 1:47 pm

This satire from two weeks ago is already massively out of date by talking about 2x4s jumping from $3 to only $8. Now THAT is inflation.

https://www.thepigarse.com/post/bank-of-canada-against-cooling-housing-market-tweeting-diamond-hands-and-rocket-ship-emojis

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.26.21 at 1:50 pm

Re:Picture
The dog’s scientific name is:
Canis Lupus Feldmandis.
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BMTIwMjA5ODc4Nl5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwNDEwOTg2._V1_UY1200_CR82,0,630,1200_AL_.jpg

#24 Rook on 03.26.21 at 1:57 pm

“Or will the feds try to ‘help’ newbie buyers with more incentives – throwing gas on the conflagration?”

$100 says this is exactly the move they make.

Either increasing the amortization period to some ungodly number, or sweeten the amount you’re allowed to withdraw from RRSP, or make the first time home buyer’s incentive a grant, not a loan. Or something wacky I haven’t thought up.

Any takers?

#25 Inequity on 03.26.21 at 1:59 pm

Everyone likes a good fire!

Don’t stand too close though, that gas is going to go whoosh!

#26 Paterfamilias on 03.26.21 at 2:00 pm

# 19. It would not matter, if Chrystia Freeland did have a background in finance. She is not driving this bus.

#27 jack on 03.26.21 at 2:04 pm

The future is economic slavery. The majority who own a home and have a mortgage will be indebted for life. Now that they have everyone by the balls, it’s time to start jacking up interest rates, increasing amortizations to cope, etc. Just wait.

#28 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 2:05 pm

#4 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 1:03 pm

Justin has background in teaching drama.

————-

Hey, don’t sell JT short. He also dropped out of engineering.

The official version is ‘studied engineering’.

———

That I didn’t know! I’ve known some people who couldn’t finish engineering and switched to geology. Lots actually. And the main reason was never the engineering courses, it was the math. Too much math!

And that doesn’t help our situation. Justin is not good at math, but he is good at acting. Perfect combo for hard times!

#29 DaphneBlue on 03.26.21 at 2:06 pm

I sent this excerpt to my MP Catherine McKenna but I don’t expect a reply from her. You have summed it up eloquently!
‘This has the potential to destroy the livability of every major community, create two classes of citizens, cement a wealth divide, disenfranchise an entire cohort, create structural household debt, make shelter unaffordable and hobble the economy as billions a week flow into vaporous housing equity. In short, it’s an epic policy failure. It’s time those who have greased the wheels – realtors, central bankers, political leaders and our federal housing agency – stand accountable.”

#30 Rainman on 03.26.21 at 2:08 pm

It is crazy, but since 70% of Canadians already own, that is more than high enough anyhow. 30% priced out seems reasonable.

Home ownership rates: Toronto 66%, Vancouver 63% , Montreal 55%. – Garth

#31 Faron on 03.26.21 at 2:09 pm

I was looking at NASDAQ statistics just now (wee break from work). Counted up the number of times there have been monthly breaks of 2 sigma to the upside (or down).

Over the past 17 months there have been 14 upside breaks. During the Mar crash there was one downside break.

The March ’20 plunge hardly counts as anything more than a small correction at this scale. Other corrections came with several 2 sigma downside breaks.

The insanity that was happening running up to it (late 2019 to Feb, ’20) was briefly interrupted and has since seen breaks May ’20 through Feb ’21. This exceeds the excesses of 2000 although the breaks aren’t as large in the latest months.

Russell 2000 is even more interesting. It’s had several 3 sigma breaks or near breaks after restoring to pre-COVID levels. The only time this happened in the past was pre 2000 crash.

This is all history and doesn’t tell us what will happen. But, it’s always good to know history. And stats.

#32 Jake on 03.26.21 at 2:09 pm

Garth, when is it time to give up the fight? I have been reading since the 2008 crash and up to a few years ago I stopped trying to convince anyone anymore thinking of buying to wait because if I do I am reminded how wrong I was before even though we all know at some point this has to unwind.

#33 Insider trading on 03.26.21 at 2:21 pm

I managed a sneak peak at the budget and quickly flipped to the “housing” section to see what if anything the liberals would do. The only thing listed was “the commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the housing market will balance itself” :-(

#34 Grandv!ew on 03.26.21 at 2:25 pm

Canada became Real Estate Boiler Room Bubble of epic proportions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiler_room_(business).
This reality (nightmare) was conceived, funded, nurtured and vigorously defended by successive Federal and Provincial governments and real estate industry in the period spanning longer than several decades. The simple truth is we do not have anything else that would provide needed economic growth in order to sustain lifestyles expected by populace. Thus, federal government currently continues importing of “customers” for the real estate industry on the unprecedented scale (400K per year will soon become 500K or more) in order to keep the pressure (boiler room effect) in the market and provide the floor for the prices. Alternative is not to import the “customers” and let the chips fall where they may. That actuality would be very bleak and dangerous for the very survival of Canada’s financial system and by the extent the country itself.

#35 Rainman on 03.26.21 at 2:26 pm

It is crazy, but since 70% of Canadians already own, that is more than high enough anyhow. 30% priced out seems reasonable.

Home ownership rates: Toronto 66%, Vancouver 63% , Montreal 55%. – Garth

I was basing on this, has it changed in the last two years?
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/home-ownership-rate#:~:text=Home%20Ownership%20Rate%20in%20Canada%20averaged%2065.97%20percent%20from%201997,of%2063.90%20percent%20in%201999.

#36 On the sidelines on 03.26.21 at 2:33 pm

Why aren’t sale prices available? How is it possible for CREA to restrict this data? I am certain that house prices would have never increased in this way without the meddling of real estate agents. The problem is there are too many people profiting of this situation, including home owners, banks, construction workers etc etc. But don’t worry, someday the tables will turn. Someday the majority won’t own houses. And if you are already turned off by the increasing number of homeless people popping up at every corner in the most ´safe’ cities, you have seen nothing yet. For those that came to Canada to give their children a better life, you got here too late. Even if your kids will end up having enough cash to buy a condo in Toronto, they will still have to be careful not to step on homeless people on their way to work, and make sure their kids don’t pick up needles in the park. Or they can move in the burbs and commute three hours each day. Is this the Canada that everyone appreciates?

#37 Km on 03.26.21 at 2:35 pm

No faith in the government doing anything, at least not until after an election. Even then it will just be something small to seem like they care. In reality this is such a large section of our economy they will not want to dampen it too much.

#38 greyhound on 03.26.21 at 2:36 pm

Great post; makes me think of G. K. Chesterton: “The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.”

#39 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 2:39 pm

Hey, the ‘Faron inverse’ indicator just went off!

Must be time to buy TSLA at 600.

#40 Damifino on 03.26.21 at 2:41 pm

#27 Immigrant man

That I didn’t know! I’ve known some people who couldn’t finish engineering and switched to geology. Lots actually. And the main reason was never the engineering courses, it was the math. Too much math!
———————————-

I discovered you can be less than gifted in calculus (say 65%) provided you are stellar at everything else (say 85%).

In practical engineering, especially electrical, those who are exceptional at math tend to find themselves in the smaller number of roles suited to their skills.

Fortunately, every engineer need not be a mathematical savant. There a generally enough of those to carry other engineers who are stronger in other arenas.

Of course, you can’t be weak at math either. You need enough to understand general concepts, even if you’re not the guy who’s an expert with MatLab.

#41 Quintilian on 03.26.21 at 2:47 pm

“create two classes of citizens”
Correction, three (3) classes:

Those who bought 30 years ago

Those who were impervious to FOMO and RE pumping lies ,and invested in themselves and other instruments

Those who took the bait and will be indebted for the rest of their natural lives, because when this aberration is over, their mortgage amortization period will be changed from 25 years to 45 years, or face foreclosure.

After the crash, and normalized interest rates, the debt slaves will choose the extended amortization period, erroneously thinking that the market will bounce back next spring, or the spring after…

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#42 Dolce Vita on 03.26.21 at 2:47 pm

In 2021, housemania swept through Canada.

The rage among Canadians to possess [a home] was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the house trade.

Indeed, it seemed at the time that the price could only go up; that “the passion for homes would last forever.” People began buying homes with leverage – to buy more than they could afford.

By the end of the year 2024, prices began to fall and never looked back. A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased homes on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their homes for a profit. But once prices started their decline, holders were forced to liquidate – to sell their homes at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process.

“Hundreds who, a few months previously had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few homes, which nobody would buy,” even at prices one-fourth of what they paid.

Home prices had returned to from whence they came.

—————————

2021 = 1634
home, house = tulip
Canada, Canadians = Holland, Dutch

Condo townhouse in Langley = Viceroy bulb

Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble Definition
-Investopedia

————-

Gollum soon to lose his “Precious”.

#43 Alberta Ed on 03.26.21 at 2:49 pm

Judging by the pattern of lies, breach of ethics, evasion of responsibility and sheer incompetence from Trudeau and his cabinet, I don’t expect Chrystia to seize the moment.

#44 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 2:51 pm

How is it possible to get a mortgage on such overpriced properties? Don’t lenders require an appraisal?

#45 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 2:57 pm

#33 Grandv!ew

Alternative is not to import the “customers” and let the chips fall where they may. That actuality would be very bleak and dangerous for the very survival of Canada’s financial system and by the extent the country itself.

————-

It’s more than that. Canadian born Canadian are not making enough babies. For a variety of reasons, but one of them being – it’s so goddam expensive to raise them! I know, I got two little ones. If you consider the daycare costs, if you have more that 2 or 3 it pretty much doesn’t make sense for the mom to work, cuz you’re spending all of what she earns on daycare (if you can find it). Yet you don’t qualify for any gov help if you are not poorest of the poor. Result? Ppl with solid incomes have 1-2 kids. Ppl with no incomes make lots, cuz the more they make the more pogie they get.

So yes, immigrants are needed to fuel the RE market… I know Garth says immigrants don’t influence the RE markets, but I have lots of immigrant friends and acquaintances, some of them arrived with bags of cash. And the Canadian immigration system favours bags of cash very much. And immigrants are needed to improve the demographic situation in Canada. Them gov ppl figured out it is cheaper to import working age ppl, then make new ones in Canada. Outsourcing, like anything else. In order to immigrate you have to get enough points to be considered. Your education and work history give you points, depending on the level. Your bags of cash (if you got em) give you points. And your age (best between 18-28, ok till 40, rapidly dropping to zero after that) give you points. Oh yes, when it comes to importing ppl Canada is super discriminatory. This is not like the immigration 100 years ago when you just show up and go in.

#46 blacky7777 on 03.26.21 at 3:01 pm

Could you please comment on this. It makes no difference that the physical border is closed. Billions of dollars coming into Canada from this and many countries. How is the average homebuyer supposed to compete with this. https://globalnews.ca/news/7720628/hong-kong-canada-money-china/

#47 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 3:04 pm

Real estate nationally is undergoing what BC endured under the Christy Clark BC Liberals where they wanted sky high prices and record sales because they were raking in the taxes. They also turned a blind eye to money laundering and other associated issues as long as real estate continued on an upward trajectory.

Real estate has become the most corrupted industry that Canada has ever seen.

#48 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.26.21 at 3:05 pm

#43 – S.Bby – I was in a similar discussion with brokers/bankers on the appraisals. Seems miraculously the appraisal comes in at our within a few percentage points of the offer price. Noone is prepared to rock the boat at the moment. Further if the appraisers screw up the deal, guess how much biz they’ll continue to get. Defeats the purpose of an independent appraisal, but everyone is a shill in some way in this mania in the Lower Brainland.

#49 an investor on 03.26.21 at 3:09 pm

Canadians are so prosperous and smart with their money. Is it any wonder that people from around the world are so desperate to live here?

Where else can an ordinary young couple make a million dollars tax free from owning a home in just a few short years? Anyone can do it. The banks will just give you the money and voila, you’re rich. You can buy several places and rent them out. It’s super easy. RE always goes up so the more you own, the richer you get.

Beautiful cities like Brampton, Richmond Hill, Winnipeg, and Edmonton are cold and grey, but the people are all millionaires because they own a condo. Canada is awesome.

#50 cuke and tomato picker on 03.26.21 at 3:10 pm

I guess ALBERTA ED along with other experts will be running in the next federal election fix everything and we will all be getting free ice cream as a bonus.

#51 WTF on 03.26.21 at 3:13 pm

#10 Damfino “It’s your moment, Chrystia. Don’t blow it. It’s Chrystia’s moment to feign independent action as a finance minister with no experience under the thumb of a self aggrandizing boss leading a minority government.Expect nothing concrete and you won’t be disappointed.”
————————————————————–
Yes. The patronizing, progressive, financially clueless FM and Little Lord Fauntleroy make a formidable pairing. Yet the Cons make 0 headway. The bar is low in Canadian Politics these days.

#52 Dolce Vita on 03.26.21 at 3:15 pm

15 min walk.

1 hr 5 min Intercitynotte train ride to Santa Lucia.

Walk 5 min and behold her:

https://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/accadde-oggi-Meravigliosa-Venezia-La-Serenissima-compie-1600-anni-37b6eb59-e76b-4e97-9e8d-4e5286259937.html#foto-2

1600 yrs young* today.

Too bad I can’t visit you La Serenissima today thanks to Zona Rossa Italia.

Buon Compleanno Venezia.

————————–

*When compared to Roma Apr 4 this year:

2774 (MMDCCLXXIV) yrs old…another birthday I will miss.

——

A return to “normale” cannot come soon enough for me.

#53 VGRO and chill on 03.26.21 at 3:22 pm

$1.7M buys a brand new build, riverfront home in Saskatoon, with floor to ceiling windows, loft ceilings, walking distance to downtown, the whole shebang.

A property like the one Garth showed goes for about $200K in a GOOD neighborhood.

What are they putting in the tapwater in the GTA?

#54 Trojan House on 03.26.21 at 3:23 pm

If MMT and deficits/debt don’t matter then why do we need taxes?

#55 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 3:24 pm

#44 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 2:57 pm

It’s more than that. Canadian born Canadian are not making enough babies. For a variety of reasons, but one of them being – it’s so goddam expensive to raise them! I know, I got two little ones. If you consider the daycare costs, if you have more that 2 or 3 it pretty much doesn’t make sense for the mom to work, cuz you’re spending all of what she earns on daycare (if you can find it).
************************************
Don’t worry, Alberta will pay your daycare. You’ll just have to move to Quebec for it.

#56 Stanislav Sedlacek on 03.26.21 at 3:26 pm

Freeland is watching closely and carefully, we no longer need to be worried…
Watching is not a policy.
If watching is all you know how to do-retire, get some binoculars and go bird watching.
This way you won’t be able to screw the whole young generation of canadians!

#57 Squire on 03.26.21 at 3:28 pm

I’m Canadian born and raised. But Canadian’s make me laugh with their holier than though attitude towards Americans. At least they know their politics and have a higher saving rate along with lower taxes.
We are pooched with the direction we’re headed…

#58 Bob The Cat on 03.26.21 at 3:29 pm

#26 jack on 03.26.21 at 2:04 pm

The future is economic slavery. The majority who own a home and have a mortgage will be indebted for life. Now that they have everyone by the balls, it’s time to start jacking up interest rates, increasing amortizations to cope, etc. Just wait.

I think you’re wrong. If you have been reading this blog for a long time, then you know that we were in similar situations before and no predictions became true. Rates were going up along with the prices. Look at the latest increases (in 2017-2018). The only thing that brought prices down 4 years ago, was the stress test, which a lot of people could not pass. This time, they are going to play it smart. They need political credibility and not the people who sell their homes and not be able to move up in the RE ladder (which was happening in 2017). Besides, if you would need votes, would you go with the 66% of home owners of 34% of renters?
I can predict with certainty that we, the ones who saved money and “waited for the prices to normalize” are pooched. Should have bought when we had the chance. We were given another chance during the pandemic and we didn’t take it. Now we know: cash is trash, and when the CB prints it faster than we can get it, then we loose money. Real estate is the king. It may be hard to sell and hard to buy, but this is the only asset that made the simple Canadians rich.

#59 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:33 pm

#38 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 2:39 pm

Hey, the ‘Faron inverse’ indicator just went off!

Must be time to buy TSLA at 600.

You need to calibrate your sensor bud. I didn’t make a directional prediction.

Kudos to you for diamonds handsesing it during the 33% drop from the ATH to today’s low. Only has to go up by 50% to regain that high. Elon tweeted that he thinks TESLA will be the biggest corp in the world in a few months, so 700% uppa by June! Yew! So much tendies, so little time.

#60 Randy on 03.26.21 at 3:35 pm

History shows that, during the price run-up of a housing bubble, most believe house prices can only go higher for reasons 1 through 1,000. This is a necessary thing for the type of price run-up that sets the conditions for the inevitable.

Canada’s housing bubble has been expanding since Garth first called it a bubble in 2008.

With housing bubbles its’s simple – the bigger the bubble, the more catastrophic the price correction.

No country has ever maintained permanent prosperity through housing bubble madness. No country has ever used a bubble to permanently eliminated recessions and depressions. If this was possible it would have happened long ago. In fact, history has shown that the inevitable implosion of a housing bubble often brings on a recession.

It’s coming Canada. Enjoy the party while it lasts. You won’t like the second part of the housing bubble boom-bust cycle. Bust.

#61 earthboundmisfit on 03.26.21 at 3:35 pm

There is also the potential to destroy about 85% of the realturd cartel. That’s a good thing.

#62 Father's Daughter on 03.26.21 at 3:36 pm

#44 Immigrant man on 03.26.21 at 2:57 pm
#33 Grandv!ew

Alternative is not to import the “customers” and let the chips fall where they may. That actuality would be very bleak and dangerous for the very survival of Canada’s financial system and by the extent the country itself.

————-

It’s more than that. Canadian born Canadian are not making enough babies. For a variety of reasons, but one of them being – it’s so goddam expensive to raise them! I know, I got two little ones. If you consider the daycare costs, if you have more that 2 or 3 it pretty much doesn’t make sense for the mom to work, cuz you’re spending all of what she earns on daycare (if you can find it). Yet you don’t qualify for any gov help if you are not poorest of the poor. Result? Ppl with solid incomes have 1-2 kids. Ppl with no incomes make lots, cuz the more they make the more pogie they get.

So yes, immigrants are needed to fuel the RE market… I know Garth says immigrants don’t influence the RE markets, but I have lots of immigrant friends and acquaintances, some of them arrived with bags of cash. And the Canadian immigration system favours bags of cash very much. And immigrants are needed to improve the demographic situation in Canada. Them gov ppl figured out it is cheaper to import working age ppl, then make new ones in Canada. Outsourcing, like anything else. In order to immigrate you have to get enough points to be considered. Your education and work history give you points, depending on the level. Your bags of cash (if you got em) give you points. And your age (best between 18-28, ok till 40, rapidly dropping to zero after that) give you points. Oh yes, when it comes to importing ppl Canada is super discriminatory. This is not like the immigration 100 years ago when you just show up and go in.

————————————————————-
Given the amount of work and sacrifice that it is to raise a child, I doubt the majority have children for the paycheque contrary to this negative stereotype. They are expensive even with help. And if, like you said, we need children, then we should be appreciative of those Canadians willing to make the sacrifices to raise and care for these children (contrary to the general sentiment on this blog). I don’t want children living in poverty so if there are exceptions to this rule, so be it. There are many people who have 3+ kids for reasons such as religion, lifestyle etc.

Your comments a tad sexist. Women presumably always make less than the men? Men can’t take parental duties when their kids are young? Get with the times.

And yes, our immigration system is highly selective. It can be, due to the sheer volume of interest. People confuse immigrants with refugees and think that they come to Canada broke and dependent on the government. For the record, I also know many refugees who are also now working taxpayers after a couple of years. And buying into the market.

#63 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 3:38 pm

#49 cuke and tomato picker on 03.26.21 at 3:10 pm
I guess ALBERTA ED along with other experts will be running in the next federal election fix everything and we will all be getting free ice cream as a bonus.
*****************************************
If you want to keep getting your freebies you best keep voting for Socks.

#64 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 03.26.21 at 3:38 pm

Don’t even think of coming up to cottage country this weekend, all you slimy little pathogens from the gta!

We don’t need you pushing up our COVID numbers or our real estate prices.

We don’t need you at all.

The 2021 cottage season is a write-off. Get over it.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#65 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:38 pm

#43 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 2:51 pm

How is it possible to get a mortgage on such overpriced properties? Don’t lenders require an appraisal?

When we bought, I was trying to dot i’s and cross t’s and asked the mortgage broker how the bank’s inspection would work and if he needed our inspection. He said, “No, the banks will take care of it, they do their own.” 50:1 that the bank did nothing more than look at the title, BC assessment, and google street view. When trillion is the new billion, 500k becomes the new $500. Why do due diligence?

#66 Sara on 03.26.21 at 3:43 pm

#57 BobTheCat

“Besides, if you would need votes, would you go with the 66% of home owners of 34% of renters?”

Many bandy that supposed stat around like it proves the majority won’t support policy to lower house prices – even if it means losing gains they’ll never see unless they sell.

But does it?

Does it refer to 66% of households (some with adult child living there) or 66% of adults?

And why assume that being a homeowner necessarily implies one is also opposed to actions that would lower house prices?

Do parents want their kids living in their basements forever?

#67 Dolce Vita on 03.26.21 at 3:44 pm

Good news & judge for yourself news for

a return to normal, prosperity, wealth generation and the will being of Canada and Canadians.

Variants

https://i.imgur.com/APEH8pM.png

+791% cumulative variant cases in the past 33 days. Trend for this is NOT exponential, so far – near 100% probability.

Trend for daily new cases CANNOT explain 63% of the data…something else is a foot. My guess is how Canada is finding the variants among +’ve cases. Genomic sequencing takes 1 week. Above data is 1 wk old in other words. Faster ways to do it pioneered in the UK earlier this year, just being “discovered” in Canada.

Record vax’ng yesterday:

190,074

https://i.imgur.com/c841vUp.png

———

Finish date 32M ≥ 15 yrs old, incl vax’d to date, 1 & 2 doses @ above record rate:

Jan 31, 2022

Needs to be 315,687 doses/day to finish by Sept 30, 2021.

My way SINGLE DOSE ONLY @ above record rate from today onwards, done by:

August 16, 2021

and if Herd Immunity is 80% then that achieved by:

July 18, 2021.

Resume double doses thereafter.

Gov Canada keeps pace with its deliveries:

6,174,408 doses from Manufacturers, 74.24% used and 1,590,528 doses on hand, unused.

Nicely done Minister Anand and Maj.-Gen Dany Fortin.

———————–

My way a return to “normale” fast, very fast. The Provinces strategy:

“slow train comin’ around the bend”

#68 Honest Realtor on 03.26.21 at 3:46 pm

I am proud to be part of a profession that has brought so much financial security and wealth to ordinary Canadians.

There is no stopping the importance of real estate for our economy. The naysayers need to live and learn, and not just complain from the sidelines.

Property will be a huge wealth generator for generations ahead in Canada. Realtors will continue to be critical in helping people achieve their dreams.

#69 Al-Saud on 03.26.21 at 3:51 pm

Folks. If a third lockdown happens then house prices will SURGE even higher.

It’s basic economics. High unemployment means huge house price gains. Only in Canada where free speech is worse than in corrupt autocratic Middle Eastern countries.

#70 Sara on 03.26.21 at 3:53 pm

#34 Rainman on 03.26.21 at 2:26 pm
“It is crazy, but since 70% of Canadians already own, that is more than high enough anyhow. 30% priced out seems reasonable.”

Whether or not 30% renters is “reasonable” matters not because it may not be staying that way, as more and more wannabe home buyers get priced out.

#71 Sara on 03.26.21 at 3:55 pm

#67 Honest Realtor on 03.26.21 at 3:46 pm
I am proud to be part of a profession that has brought so much financial security and wealth to ordinary Canadians.

There is no stopping the importance of real estate for our economy. The naysayers need to live and learn, and not just complain from the sidelines.

Property will be a huge wealth generator for generations ahead in Canada. Realtors will continue to be critical in helping people achieve their dreams.
=====================

So what you are really saying is to heck with everyone who is currently priced out of the housing market, as you are forever f’d.

#72 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 4:11 pm

#68 Al-Saud on 03.26.21 at 3:51 pm
Folks. If a third lockdown happens then house prices will SURGE even higher.

It’s basic economics. High unemployment means huge house price gains. Only in Canada where free speech is worse than in corrupt autocratic Middle Eastern countries
**************************************
I’ve worked engineering on 5 or 6 Aramco (KSA) projects. The client made it very clear that they hired a Canadian EPC company and they did not want any Canadian POCs working on their projects. If they were going to have a project engineered by Indians or Filipinos they would have hired an EPC from those countries for a lot less money. They reluctantly tolerated some white women Engineers but treated them like 3rd class citizens.

#73 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.26.21 at 4:12 pm

The ‘system’ is broken. No big deal.

You either make money or lose your mind.

#74 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 4:13 pm

#58 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:33 pm
#38 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 2:39 pm

Hey, the ‘Faron inverse’ indicator just went off!

Must be time to buy TSLA at 600.

———–

You need to calibrate your sensor bud. I didn’t make a directional prediction.

Kudos to you for diamonds handsesing it during the 33% drop from the ATH to today’s low. Only has to go up by 50% to regain that high.

———–

Long and strong, baby! Already up 3% from today’s 604 purchase and now 3539.47% from original position (down from 5000% or so at the high). You may not have recognized your inverse call, but luckily my indicator triggered.

Today’s gain would buy your full Rigid tool pack. Continuing up in after hours. Thanks!

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.26.21 at 4:16 pm

#64 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:38 pm
#43 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 2:51 pm

How is it possible to get a mortgage on such overpriced properties? Don’t lenders require an appraisal?

When we bought, I was trying to dot i’s and cross t’s and asked the mortgage broker how the bank’s inspection would work and if he needed our inspection. He said, “No, the banks will take care of it, they do their own.” 50:1 that the bank did nothing more than look at the title, BC assessment, and google street view. When trillion is the new billion, 500k becomes the new $500. Why do due diligence?
————
You’d be surprised.
We just moved our mortgage over to a new bank for a better rate and some freebies.
Super Credit rating. Low LTV.
They did a walk in house inspection. Weird.
Probably because of my Nazi accent.
Happens all the time.
Or CEF ratted me out.

#76 other guy in Vancouver on 03.26.21 at 4:27 pm

Government has no interest in a reduction in the price tag on housing. Quite the opposite. It therefore will be more gas on the fire.

#77 Flop... on 03.26.21 at 4:27 pm

Someone asked how much did the realtor earn?

I thought only roller coasters and dirty people at buffets were allowed to have had a double dipper…

M46BC

—————————————————————————

From the Langley listing.

Seller’s Agent Sutton Group-West Coast Realty

Buyer’s Agent Sutton Group-West Coast Realty (Surrey/24)

“Buyer’s Agent Commission 3.255% ON THE 1ST $100,000 / 1.1625% ON THE BALANCE”

#78 Cheese on 03.26.21 at 4:29 pm

You can’t buy a house if its on fire.

#79 Eco Capitalist on 03.26.21 at 4:36 pm

Oh ye of little faith. Not only will Chrystia do something, she’ll do something spectacular to demonstrate why she should be the next leader of the Liberal Party.

Sorry Binky, did I steal your thunder?

Seriously though, just have the CMHC stop providing insurance on new mortgages and let it wind itself down as all the existing ones come up for renewal. If the banks have to shoulder the risk I’m sure they’d sort things out in a hurry.

#80 Concerned Citizen on 03.26.21 at 4:40 pm

Garth, I think you need to consider that exploding asset prices – hyper-inflationary, even – is by design. In 2009, central banks the world over embraced so-called “wealth effect” policies, whereby they hoped to stimulate spending by inflating asset prices. There’s at least a few problems with that though:

– The policies were supposed to be temporary, but in fact policy never came close to normalizing. When you pursue wealth effect policies for a decade plus, asset prices never have a chance to meaningfully correct, and valuations get ever richer. That’s exactly what has happened, to the point where massive bubbles have formed in many/most asset markets (not just real estate). That’s the data talking, not me.

– The wealth effect predominantly benefits those with wealth to begin with. That’s why some believe central bank policy has fueled populist movements the world over.

– Low interest rates encourage debt accumulation and push down returns on safe investments, pushing people into riskier and riskier investments to earn a return. This hits retirees and others with a high risk tolerance, and benefits reckless speculators.

I could go on, but suffice it to say this money printing policy is not without (grave) side effects. The powers that be surely are aware of this, but simply don’t care. There is no plan to extricate themselves from this. The result is that we now live in a dystopian nightmare where “stimulus” is permanent and we’re told the economy is strong (yet it requires massive debt-based spending and central bank asset buying to continuously prop it up).

I remember back when I studied economics in university there was this concept of the business cycle. During bad times overleveraged/irresponsible companies would be washed away and new companies emerge in what Schumpeter called the process of creative destruction. But our policymakers no longer believe in the business cycle, and so this cleansing/re-growth no longer takes place. And so things grow ever more precarious as the foundation falls apart.

Housing affordability will never be solved until money costs something again, and there are no signs whatsoever that the Bank of Canada will ever allow that to happen. To do so would be to see asset holders get hurt, and that runs contrary to its prime policy objective.

Canada, along with most western democracies, is rapidly turning into a have/have not society. It’s just happening more quickly/severely here. And the prime culprit is the central bank. There is very little the government can do if the central bank continues as it has. I really fear for the country at the rate we’re going.

#81 Stone on 03.26.21 at 4:43 pm

#67 Honest Realtor on 03.26.21 at 3:46 pm
I am proud to be part of a profession that has brought so much financial security and wealth to ordinary Canadians.

There is no stopping the importance of real estate for our economy. The naysayers need to live and learn, and not just complain from the sidelines.

Property will be a huge wealth generator for generations ahead in Canada. Realtors will continue to be critical in helping people achieve their dreams.

———

That’s leveraged blasphemy. It’s actually a balanced and diversified portfolio that is critical to helping people achieve their moisty dreams. Cashflow, balance, and growth. Let’s not forget peace of mind when volatility is subdued with the right asset mix. And no 5% transaction fee. My B&D portfolio is now 8.98% ytd. Living the moisty dream!

In case anyone needs help with your dreams, I’ve added a link for a Dream Coach. It’s a dream…within a dream. Lol.

https://www.jondawe.ca/work/dreamcoachmax

#82 dr talc on 03.26.21 at 4:43 pm

Well it’s pretty funny that RBC and The Globe and Mail think PRs should be taxed. Here’s how it works- the big boys, with the obvious smoke screen, are in a rush to assets. So when the little guys catch on and do the same thing, ‘just tell them they’re acting irresponsibly, and tax them on it’

https://therealdeal.com/miami/2020/12/18/here-are-south-floridas-biggest-hotel-sales-in-2020/

#83 ebay Realtors on 03.26.21 at 4:45 pm

Houses are bought for million plus the way people buy vintage overpriced junk on eBay.

#84 Howard on 03.26.21 at 4:50 pm

Such a nice fellow the Tiffster is. Couldn’t tolerate the children of plebes despoiling his Toronto neighbourhood.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/boc-governor-tiff-macklem-objected-to-daycare-in-his-neighbourhood-as-not-keeping-with-its-heritage-nature

BoC governor Tiff Macklem objected to daycare in his neighbourhood as not keeping with its ‘heritage nature’

#85 Sopranos on 03.26.21 at 4:51 pm

I’m re-watching Sopranos.

It’s so weird without anyone wearing a mask, especially Junior.

Should Tony’s Mom wear one or would you rather not? What’s the verdict on that?

#86 Freedom First on 03.26.21 at 4:51 pm

Lots of fleecing going on!

Danger!

Keep greed, or fear, out of your life. Do not Panic. Stay calm.

Freedom First

#87 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 4:57 pm

#61 Father’s Daughter on 03.26.21 at 3:36 pm

Given the amount of work and sacrifice that it is to raise a child, I doubt the majority have children for the paycheque contrary to this negative stereotype. They are expensive even with help.

———-

We have two kids and it was great putting them to work from about 12 on. I didn’t mow the lawn, clean the gutters, wash the cars, vacuum, or chop wood for probably 5 years. Funny how they both disappeared immediately after graduating HS.

Then our son was home from school last summer and painted the whole house. The daughter’s on her third year in NZ self-sufficiently traveling on her own- although we do give her cash on birthdays, which she uses for skydiving, horse shows, sightseeing tours, etc. Moving on to Australia soon- can’t wait to spend next winter visiting her there!

Cost for kids? Barely- more like benefit… and we fully intend to impose on them when we’re old and decrepit… you know, from around age 60 or so…

#88 Julian on 03.26.21 at 4:57 pm

I think one issue with any predictions is that we may be into a new normal and maybe history doesn’t mean much. Logically we.may like to think that the madness must end but look at the how long we’ve had these ultra low rates and cheap money. People are making predictions about rising rates but didn’t we think that was also going to happen pre pandemic?

I mean who really knows anymore. I’d love for the madness to stop because I wouldn’t mind getting a decent house some day!

#89 Dolce Vita on 03.26.21 at 4:58 pm

#67 Honest Realtor

Vancouver detached average home investment

May 1977 $69,600
March 2021 $1,400,000
Years 44
Return 7.06% compounded annually

S&P 500 Index investment

May 1977 98.76
March 2021 3870.29
Years 44
Return 8.69% compounded annually

——————–

The latter throws off dividends. Set it and forget it.

The former sheds 44 years of city tax, maintenance, utilities costs LESS:

Sellers Agent Commission
$21,263

Buyer Agent Commission
$18,238

GST
$1,975

to monetize the “investment”.

The latter costs me $10 to monetize.

#90 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.26.21 at 4:58 pm

CAN YOU HEAR THE DRUMS FERNANDO?
The average Real Estate buyer is naïve if they don’t accept the reality, that the government, at their discretion, can and will step in and change the rules in the middle of the game. A recent landlord example, if their tenant can’t or won’t pay their rent these days, the landlord can’t evict (Covid). So that “cash flow, don’t flo no mo”. I don’t think anyone investing in Real Estate thought that lightning bolt would zap them. At that point it really doesn’t matter what the mortgage rate or the price of the property is. Another zapper, coming from the sky , look for eye watering new property assessments reflecting updated property valuations. Politically speaking, it will be far easier to implement tax zaps during the Covid crisis. I am looking for Government sponsored media leaks to float additional money grabbing tax schemes. This will be done on the pretext that we are all in this together, and
fighting together (paying more in taxes) we will be victorious. Can you hear the drums Fernando?
You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

#91 Rach on 03.26.21 at 5:00 pm

I hope she does something because this is pure madness. Ive heard so many stories now of families outside of the city that were renting, they had the property they live in skyrocket in price and now the landlord is selling or sold. Where will these people go with the lack of rentals available? I know a few are having to live in hotels. Is Chrystia truly going to say “everything will just balance itself.” To these people. Isn’t she the one who wrote that book about economic inequalities ? Really curious what her plans are for this mono economy.

#92 Northshore guy on 03.26.21 at 5:02 pm

4640 Highland Blvd, north Vancouver
Sold for 2.155, 1 week on market, paid over asking
Previously sold for 1.280 in Jan 2020

Why didn’t they pay 125k more and be proud to have paid a million more then a year ago???

#93 Howard on 03.26.21 at 5:08 pm

By the way, Langley has a pop of about 25,000, sits an hour south of Vancouver, with the average household income a little under $60,000. The realtor handling the sale said it was a feeding frenzy among seniors. “Nobody wants to go to a care facility.”

—————————-

Garth, there goes your moister theory. It’s the wrinklies (at least in part) going crazy paying Manhattan prices for exurban/hickville properties.

WFH youngsters and apparently senile oldsters have teamed up to drive this frenzy.

Only difference is, the oldies will be bailed out. The youngsters, probably not so lucky.

Because people are old does not mean they are senile. Ageism is wrong. – Garth

#94 Shaun on 03.26.21 at 5:10 pm

How can an individual even get a mortgage for a property that ends up being over inflated in value. Does one need to have the funds to cover the shortfall that the bank is only willing to mortgage the property for regardless of sale price? Bought price is not a market value just what a person spent to get that property.

#95 Sunny Daze on 03.26.21 at 5:15 pm

#58 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:33 pm
#38 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 2:39 pm

Hey, the ‘Faron inverse’ indicator just went off!

Must be time to buy TSLA at 600.

———–

You need to calibrate your sensor bud. I didn’t make a directional prediction.

Kudos to you for diamonds handsesing it during the 33% drop from the ATH to today’s low. Only has to go up by 50% to regain that high.

———–

Long and strong, baby! Already up 3% from today’s 604 purchase and now 3539.47% from original position (down from 5000% or so at the high). You may not have recognized your inverse call, but luckily my indicator triggered.

Today’s gain would buy your full Rigid tool pack. Continuing up in after hours. Thanks!

—————————————————————

You’re both right boys. Vix stayed red so a little crash up instead of down even with the end of world liquidation. Was a clue I guess. Lots of sectors were strong all day too. Semis so good.

Viac for me around 46 when it felt like the world was ending. Felt like a gift but who knows where it goes next week. Maybe the next GME! lol

Fun day so far. And now the weekend!

Don’t count on anything from the government. Anything that lowers prices will look like a hedge fund liquidation move for Canadian housing. Houses can’t handle even a little down day from up here.

Just had a thought. Maybe after the budget Garth you can do a post titled ‘The Tool Behind The Tool’. So many ways to interpret.

Willing to listen first though. Like it or not our finance minister showed some real grit haggling over trade with some big personalities. So who knows. Maybe the next income trust type massacre. Still brings back pain.

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.26.21 at 5:15 pm

#71 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 4:11 pm
#68 Al-Saud on 03.26.21 at 3:51 pm
Folks. If a third lockdown happens then house prices will SURGE even higher.

It’s basic economics. High unemployment means huge house price gains. Only in Canada where free speech is worse than in corrupt autocratic Middle Eastern countries
**************************************
I’ve worked engineering on 5 or 6 Aramco (KSA) projects. The client made it very clear that they hired a Canadian EPC company and they did not want any Canadian POCs working on their projects. If they were going to have a project engineered by Indians or Filipinos they would have hired an EPC from those countries for a lot less money. They reluctantly tolerated some white women Engineers but treated them like 3rd class citizens.
———–
Does not surprise me that you worked for companies that exploited workers.
You probably fit in perfectly.

#97 YVR Renter on 03.26.21 at 5:16 pm

It would be good to know if these insane buyers are actually closing on the deals? Or do they get buyer’s remorse and walk…I think you wrote an article not so long ago about buyers ghosting? As I mentioned previously, saw lots of house sales have to be reduced to close in the early 90’s. That was in spiffy Waterloo. When the train stopped, the tracks ended, and everything fell off a cliff really fast. Will history repeat?

BTW if you live in Langley and commute into Vancouver for work, as some of my co-workers did, it’s a lot more than an hour as the whole Fraser Valley is also on the road with you.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.26.21 at 5:19 pm

Re: Tools
I’m not an expert, but I heard German tools are quite good.
How do they compare against American ones?

#99 david on 03.26.21 at 5:21 pm

Same thing in Burlington, Shore Acres, listed at $2 million, last year homes were changing hands around $1.6 in the area, nothing spectacular to be honest. Listed on Friday, sold on Saturday for???? $2.41. Blind auction on day 1.

#100 Drew on 03.26.21 at 5:22 pm

What copyright? So I guess that thing from a while ago where realtors can’t hide real estate data anymore doesn’t matter?

#101 Editrix on 03.26.21 at 5:30 pm

My fearless prediction: the Canadian quality of life sometime in the next thirty years will resemble that of the late 1940s. Some people may own houses, they may own one car and if they can afford to take a vacation on an airplane once or twice a decade, their friends will be impressed and think they’re rich.

#102 Bob The Cat on 03.26.21 at 5:39 pm

#66 Sara on 03.26.21 at 3:43 pm

These are very good questions. I hope the logic prevails. But as far as I’ve seen, everybody around me are feeling like millionaires just because their houses went up in price 30% since last year. And they are soooo happy about it.

#103 Shirl Clarts on 03.26.21 at 5:43 pm

#76 Flop… on 03.26.21 at 4:27 pm
Someone asked how much did the realtor earn?

I thought only roller coasters and dirty people at buffets were allowed to have had a double dipper…

M46BC

—————————————————————————

From the Langley listing.

Seller’s Agent Sutton Group-West Coast Realty

Buyer’s Agent Sutton Group-West Coast Realty (Surrey/24)

“Buyer’s Agent Commission 3.255% ON THE 1ST $100,000 / 1.1625% ON THE BALANCE”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

C’mon flopper, you know the seller will say.. “worth every penny”. Agent will take all the credit for this “perfect storm” market condition.

Tomorrow, the agent will be representing a buyer. Will she look out for their interests in the same way as a seller?

About the house, it sits in a 45+ gated community. Strata. Has Pool, clubhouse, landscaping, big insurance premiums, so fees are no doubt large. It is only 2 Bed, 2 Bath, but the big selling feature? Rancher, no stairs! I wonder how many acorn stair lifts the buyer could have bought with $500k.

Imagine how happy the neighbors kids are with their goosed inheritance. Imagine how pissed the buyers kids are – 1/2 Million of THEIR future inheritance torched in blink of an eye.

One sacrificial lamb, just fed the next generation of an entire community.

Those are going to be some awkward block parties.

#104 Stone on 03.26.21 at 5:45 pm

#78 Cheese on 03.26.21 at 4:29 pm
You can’t buy a house if its on fire.

———

Next week, on The Canadian MSM:

BREAKING NEWS: Slanty semi on fire simultaneously sells for $800,000 above asking. Purchaser exclaims they are thrilled to be the new owners of some ash, melted plastic and twisted steel. Realtor advises that it’s the hottest commission they’ve ever made.

#105 N on 03.26.21 at 5:48 pm

# 46
Could you please comment on this. It makes no difference that the physical border is closed. Billions of dollars coming into Canada from this and many countries. How is the average homebuyer supposed to compete with this. https://globalnews.ca/news/7720628/hong-kong-canada-money-china/

Exactly…. KW prices will become like Toronto’s by next year. Everyone now knows that Canada’s Real Estate Market is not fed by local income and doing a price analysis is of no use. It’s been like this for years and will only get way worse till it all ends… Until then, the easy money and easy returns will continue to flow and many will continue to complain and complain.

We do this to ourselves. – Garth

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.21 at 5:53 pm

@#74 Ponzie’s Property Prerusal
“Probably because of my Nazi accent.
Happens all the time.
Or CEF ratted me out…”
++++

I slept well that night….

#107 gfd on 03.26.21 at 5:54 pm

#43 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 2:51 pm
How is it possible to get a mortgage on such overpriced properties? Don’t lenders require an appraisal?
================================
Bank mortgage underwriters get paid salary plus volume bonuses. They tell appraisers what they need to appraise those properties for if they want their business. This fraud has become a ‘business as usual’ nobody pays attention to anymore.

#108 weiners on 03.26.21 at 5:58 pm

From my point of view, a few things could responsibly be done in order to increase supply, and reduce the demand that’s been driving house prices up. As with most successful measures, they would take a while to take effect after having been implemented.

1. Increase the supply end of the equation. Instead of a vacant house tax, implement a vacant lot tax. Any vacant piece of land within city limits and that is zoned for development, would have an special annual tax applied until such time as a building permit was applied for. Get creative with zoning on a municipal level. Increase density in a smart, incremental way. The City of Toronto could have twice as many people living there as they do now, and be a better city for it, with people having easier access to amenities with improved transit.

2. Increasing mortgage rates would decrease the demand, by dampening the price of housing, but interest rates won’t be increased in a meaningful way for a long time. Instead, increase the minimum down payment requirement for a residential mortgage from 5% up to 10% or higher, increasing the amount of skin people would have to have in the game. This would be more in line with past times, when prices were not able to rise as fast as they have been recently.

3. If we’re thinking of taxing capital gains on principal residences, we should think again. People won’t sell the houses they’re currently in, as there is not as much incentive to do so. The current generation of boomers would wait until they’re carried out their home in a box, if they were not able to realize gains after decades of paying a mortgage, and making repairs and renovations. This would not exactly increase supply.

#109 Kaiser on 03.26.21 at 6:01 pm

#57 Bob The Cat

Very preceptive comment.

Choosing to buy a home (much like choosing to buy stocks) currently has nothing to do with market fundamentals and EVERYTHING to do with predicting what the FED/BOC will do. Will they continue to pump out QE, print money, and keep rates artificially low? If the answer is yes: buy, prices are going up. If the answer is no: sell, prices will start to decline.

I have faith that the BOC will continue to act against the best interest of the general population and keep the stimulus party going forever – or at least until the point of collapse.

#110 mark on 03.26.21 at 6:06 pm

It really doesn’t matter the outcome at this point. The result is the same.
If it falls apart, it’s horrific.
If it keeps going, it’s horrific.
If it stops and levitates, it’s horrific.

#111 joe on 03.26.21 at 6:06 pm

“We are of course watching housing markets across the country very, very closely and carefully,” says Finance Minister Freeland. “We are very aware, also, of the challenges that many Canadians face — particularly young Canadians — in buying a home,” she said. “So it’s something that we’re looking at carefully.”

blah blah blah….meanwhile realtors get richer and young families more in debt. The govt/BoC tag team creating this rigged game.

#112 Mickey on 03.26.21 at 6:17 pm

#50 cuke and tomato picker on 03.26.21 at 3:10 pm
I guess ALBERTA ED along with other experts will be running in the next federal election fix everything and we will all be getting free ice cream as a bonus.
———
On the contrary we ALL hope Alberta Ed will indeed run in the next federal election to STOP your hero’s needless gifting of free ice cream. Like $2k per month CERB to 15 year olds living with their parents.

#113 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 6:19 pm

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.26.21 at 5:15 pm
#71 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 4:11 pm
#68 Al-Saud on 03.26.21 at 3:51 pm
Folks. If a third lockdown happens then house prices will SURGE even higher.

It’s basic economics. High unemployment means huge house price gains. Only in Canada where free speech is worse than in corrupt autocratic Middle Eastern countries
**************************************
I’ve worked engineering on 5 or 6 Aramco (KSA) projects. The client made it very clear that they hired a Canadian EPC company and they did not want any Canadian POCs working on their projects. If they were going to have a project engineered by Indians or Filipinos they would have hired an EPC from those countries for a lot less money. They reluctantly tolerated some white women Engineers but treated them like 3rd class citizens.
———–
Does not surprise me that you worked for companies that exploited workers.
You probably fit in perfectly
************************************
Actually I worked for SNC-Lavalin at the time. Is that better? I know how much you Libs love them.

#114 Cici on 03.26.21 at 6:20 pm

Hilarious. Wow, now I really am predicting a crash.

Many of these buyers don’t have any real money and wouldn’t even be credit worthy if they hadn’t lucked into inflated equity after extending themselves on a previous home purchase. These duds will continue to use their homes as ATMs but will ultimately struggle to carry their mammoth mortgages, even if rates stay low, because inflation will ensure the erosion of their buying power.

Meanwhile, lots of Millenials will be heading for brighter pastures and high-potential immigrants will probably choose warmer, greener pastures with less explosive valuations.

Sooner than later, the $h*t is going to hit the ceiling fan because the pool of potential buyers will have gone dry and there will be a shortage of greaterfools to sell to.

#115 TurnerNation on 03.26.21 at 6:32 pm

What would Nonna Nicola say at a time like this.
Buya da house ? Or Shaddapa you face?

Just living my best Lumpenproletariat Life on this weblog.

Resposting the stunning drone footage of Kanada’s new open air Quarrantine Kamp (voluntary natch) on the grounds of a Toronto hospital. (To make it seem more palatable?)
Not in your country you say? In my opinion we were taken over. March 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbL_cBlAsVI

–Welcome to the New System and it is brutal.

Police ban kissing, hugging in public – MSN http://www.msn.com › en-ph › news › national › police-ban-…
Mar. 10, 2021 — Provided by The Manila Times. The police have taken their responsibility of implementing physical distancing by another notch by banning …

Number of youth in hospital after suicide attempt tripled over 4-month period under COVID-19 (cbc.ca)

…….

Prepping for PERMANENT rolling Lockdowns. This is is folks. WW3 was rolled out that cold week in March/20 and it will be many years of attacks against us.
Supply chain shortages? Q3 we were told in October right?
Prediction: ON/GTA and QC will be locked down until June, if not Sept. Hey when’s that UBI coming again?

https://istheshipstillstuck.com/ Suez canal is going to be closed for weeks. Ships rerouting around south Africa. ”

– Hamilton moves to lockdown (toronto.ctvnews.ca)
Eastern Ontario will be moving to the red level from the orange restrict level.

-UK extends emergency coronavirus powers by 6 months(apnews.com)

– Belgium just announced another lockdown, France is on Lockdown.

– Chile Lockdowns Santiago With Cases Rising (bloomberg.com)

– Delay in full return of cancer services ‘deeply worrying’www.irishtimes.com

——-Permanent lockdowns being sold to us. We’re but one year into this event folks. One year.

https://humanevents.com/2021/03/26/bloomberg-editorial-board-acts-as-propaganda-arm-of-great-reset-plan/
Just two days after publishing the editorial advertising WEF’s CommonPass, Bloomberg published an opinion piece titled “We Must Start Planning For a Permanent Pandemic,” which warned that “With coronavirus mutations pitted against vaccinations in a global arms race, we may never go back to normal.”

“The good news is that we keep getting better at responding,” the piece reads. “In each lockdown, for example, we damage the economy less than in the previous one. And we may achieve scientific breakthroughs that will eventually make life better. Our Brave New World needn’t be dystopian. But it won’t look anything like the old world.”
…..

THIS is the pre-cursor to the “One World” government/system. It’s all in the BlockChain.
That’s why we used Blockchain for…absolutely nothing practical. It was being readied for this.

https://e-resident.gov.ee/
E-Residency enables digital entrepreneurs to start and manage an EU-based company online

Estonia is the first country to offer e-Residency, a government-issued digital identity and status that provides access to Estonia’s transparent digital business environment
E-Residency allows digital entrepreneurs to manage business from anywhere, entirely online
https://e-resident.gov.ee/become-an-e-resident/

https://fdnlife.com/eresidency-top-3-countries-that-offer-eresidency/
E-RESIDENCY – TOP 3 COUNTRIES THAT OFFER E-RESIDENCY

#116 Nonplused on 03.26.21 at 6:47 pm

“The condo townhouse in Langley was priced at $820,000 – a healthy premium over the last comparable sale of $770,000. In days there were 110 showings, then 20 offers – in a blind auction. The ‘winner’ paid $1.4 million – or $500,000 above asking.”

Where on earth are people getting that kind of money? I can’t believe the banks would be writing mortgages that far above appraisal so I assume these are mostly cash buyers. Maybe it is a bunch of seniors who are so afraid of a home or a 50+ condo that they are blowing their retirement funds?

I can’t, at this point, see how any of this ends well. It’s as if math doesn’t matter anymore. My son will be happy to hear that.

#117 Bob The Cat on 03.26.21 at 6:47 pm

#109 Kaiser on 03.26.21 at 6:01 pm

I totally agree with you – if the FED continues the QE and keep the rates low, there’s no other direction for the asset prices than up. And looking at the latest 10 years, we could see how the QE never ended, it just went on a hugely bigger scale in 2020. If the FED/CBs continue printing at the same pace they were until 2020, we’ll see the asset price swelling at the same pace as we saw until 2020. However, if we consider that “the low rates are here to stay” and “we won’t take our foot off the throttle for now” (statemenst of BOC), and we know that BOC follows the FED, we’ll see a faster increase of the prices of the assets than before. Let’s say put it this way: we saw a house price double in 5-10 years. We might see it double again from the current levels in the next 5 years.

#118 45north on 03.26.21 at 6:57 pm

talking about the insanity of the housing market This has the potential to destroy the livability of every major community, create two classes of citizens, cement a wealth divide, disenfranchise an entire cohort, create structural household debt, make shelter unaffordable and hobble the economy as billions a week flow into vaporous housing equity. In short, it’s an epic policy failure. It’s time those who have greased the wheels – realtors, central bankers, political leaders and our federal housing agency – stand accountable.

this is the politicians’ fault – especially Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada because they are in power and because they were in power. CMHC is a federal agency and has a measure of independence but it’s the lack of political leadership that’s the problem. Leadership has to provide cover for the civil servants. Measures to cool the housing market are unpopular in the short term and there’s no way to precisely gauge them. The housing market has now eaten the whole country – politicians are scared.

#119 Capt. Serious on 03.26.21 at 6:57 pm

When this sucker blows, it is going to take the Canadian economy with it. And unlike the US financial crisis, there will be no spillover to the broader world economy. Just a lot of newly unemployed Canadians, people stuck in negative equity, and people wondering how they could have been so foolish.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.21 at 6:59 pm

@#87 Howard
“BoC governor Tiff Macklem objected to daycare in his neighbourhood as not keeping with its ‘heritage nature’”

++++

Yep.
Equality for all….until the “little people” come knocking.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.21 at 7:02 pm

@#98 Predrilled Pilot hole

“I’m not an expert, but I heard German tools are quite good.
How do they compare against American ones?”

++++

Well, that depends on whether you’re talking about leadership or implements for repairing things……

#122 B on 03.26.21 at 7:03 pm

“It’s time those who have greased the wheels – realtors, central bankers, political leaders and our federal housing agency – stand accountable.”

First time poster. I Have no faith in any of the above to make one iota of difference. Didn’t Tiff just sell his house? He has skin in the game. No point bitching about it… I’m making plans to leave Toronto and probably Canada with my useless middle class income.

#123 JasonB on 03.26.21 at 7:04 pm

“This has the potential to destroy the livability of every major community, create two classes of citizens”

If you believe it has the potential to do that, that’s an admission that the behaviours are rational, and this 10-year run-up was justified, since failure to buy means being relegated to the lower class of citizen–not dodging a bubble.

#124 S.Bby on 03.26.21 at 7:20 pm

If they paid $1.4 million for that townhouse in Langley IDK why because they could get a nice and larger SF house in Langley for less than that; and no strata fees or special assessments either.

#125 FreeBird on 03.26.21 at 7:22 pm

Non RE/viral news. Good videos on cargo ship stuck in Suez Canal (all short):

https://youtu.be/Yj_e2y2QhXo
https://youtu.be/FH-_Mtkugbs
https://youtu.be/asvACsmzxn8

Top importers/exporters via SC:

https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-OIL/nmovarbyopa/chart.png

https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-OIL/jbyvrabeope/chart.png

All in a bit of a you know what show for a while.

#126 Blacksheep on 03.26.21 at 7:27 pm

I’m still surprised at the endless volume of comments suggesting a multitude of ideas on how to bring the cost of housing down in Canada.

Unfortunately, they are completely missing the big picture of what’s going on with RE values.

The Gov. WANTS inflation in home values due to the fact that when a RE owner gains $ 100,000’s in new home equity, they feel wealthy and fuel the economy by SPENDING.

The BoC has come right out and told us this.

Why aren’t people listening?

#127 I heard ... on 03.26.21 at 7:35 pm

Comrade Horgan on the radio today saying that his government has brought in a lot of measures to make housing “more affordable” for buyers, but … “clearly we have not done enough.” I think he has done more than enough already …

#128 Barb on 03.26.21 at 7:37 pm

KW folks: relocate to BC’s north Okanagan. Better weather and still affordable.

#129 Linda on 03.26.21 at 7:39 pm

My take? Stop ‘looking’ & do something. As in make it illegal to hold a blind auction plus make it mandatory to list what the place previously sold for so buyers have some actual information to base an offer on. If I go to an auction to buy other goods I will hear who is offering what & can judge whether I want to bid more or walk away. Housing shouldn’t be exempt from that.

#130 rknusa on 03.26.21 at 7:42 pm

I will bet Trudeau will juice this market further by increasing RRSP withdrawls, increasing amortization to 40 years for insured loans, increase shared equity loans and heck who knows maybe even give the Bank and Mom and dad a tax credit if they lend their kids some money via a HELOC loan

I have no faith in this government

#131 Faron on 03.26.21 at 7:43 pm

#95 Sunny Daze on 03.26.21 at 5:15 pm

#58 Faron on 03.26.21 at 3:33 pm
#38 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 2:39 pm

Do you guys understand what “happened” in the markets today to make things move like that? Are you seeking to learn or are you taking it to mean markets are efficiently pricing assets given available information (Hah)?

VIX wound up elevated slightly above its lows for the day despite the SPX climbing to almost double Iin terms of one day move) where it was at that VIX low. There was some residual fear despite the huge closing move today.

I had a nice time with HUV along with a few reversion indicators. Gamma on ES was pretty neutral today and volume prior to the Easter holiday is likely to be thin. All that adds up to bigger moves once again. Net support from dark pools and more support from “the greeks” coming in next week. TSLA is nearing a do or die technical spot, so may “decide” soon. Lots of grist for the mill.

Finally, Stone is at an annualized ~35% now, likely to go higher in the near term. The Fed keeps dropping it’s GDP projections. That doesn’t add up. There’s some sell in May and go away logic out there and it may apply soon unless the Fed shifts into higher QE gear.

Have a good weekend everyone.

#132 Blacksheep on 03.26.21 at 7:47 pm

Kaiser #109,

This is about as ‘straight to the point’ as you can get:
—————————-
“Choosing to buy a home (much like choosing to buy stocks) currently has nothing to do with market fundamentals and EVERYTHING to do with predicting what the FED/BOC will do. Will they continue to pump out QE, print money, and keep rates artificially low? If the answer is yes: buy, prices are going up. If the answer is no: sell, prices will start to decline.

I have faith that the BOC will continue to act against the best interest of the general population and keep the stimulus party going forever – or at least until the point of collapse.”
—————————

#133 Doug t on 03.26.21 at 7:51 pm

Oh she’ll blow it BIG TIME

She will crucify us on the alter of Socialism

#134 Nonplused on 03.26.21 at 7:51 pm

#40 Damifino on 03.26.21 at 2:41 pm
#27 Immigrant man

That I didn’t know! I’ve known some people who couldn’t finish engineering and switched to geology. Lots actually. And the main reason was never the engineering courses, it was the math. Too much math!
———————————-

I discovered you can be less than gifted in calculus (say 65%) provided you are stellar at everything else (say 85%).

In practical engineering, especially electrical, those who are exceptional at math tend to find themselves in the smaller number of roles suited to their skills.

Fortunately, every engineer need not be a mathematical savant. There a generally enough of those to carry other engineers who are stronger in other arenas.

Of course, you can’t be weak at math either. You need enough to understand general concepts, even if you’re not the guy who’s an expert with MatLab.

————————————————

Well, I went through engineering and I remember it as being pretty much all math, although not all of it was calculus and linear equations. A large part of the problem when you are doing something like designing a concrete beam is figuring out what numbers go into the formulas even if you don’t have to derive the formulas yourself. Although they make you do that once.

#135 Doug t on 03.26.21 at 7:53 pm

#121 fartz

LOL that was good

#136 Farmer Brown on 03.26.21 at 7:59 pm

What’s going on in the real estate market is totally insane. Garth, could you maybe provide your opinion on how this actually ends???

#137 Bob The Cat on 03.26.21 at 8:03 pm

#119 Capt. Serious on 03.26.21 at 6:57 pm

Don’t you get it? They will burry the currency before that happens, and will say that “Canadian exports became very strong” because the USD/CAD = 2 and will still get the vote of their citizens.
The human nature is very simple. Everybody thinks for himself. The ones rulling this country wouldn’t fight to govern a country if this wouldn’t bring them more benefits than, let’s say, managing one of the businesses that belog to them. And when that changes, they ditch the politics.

#138 CEW9 on 03.26.21 at 8:15 pm

Based on many previous policy decisions that dumped common sense in favour of popularity, there is little likelihood Freeland will put a damper on housing sales or prices. It would be an extreme reversal in personality for her as well as for Mr. Socks.

I personally expect additional ‘assistance’ for first time home buyers. Sadly.

#139 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 8:25 pm

Faron, as my housewarming gift to your family, I have an extra new Milwaukee charger and M18 battery I’d be happy to send your way if you can find a secondhand Milwaukee 18v drill. Let me know.

#140 Stone on 03.26.21 at 8:28 pm

#131 Faron on 03.26.21 at 7:43 pm

Finally, Stone is at an annualized ~35% now, likely to go higher in the near term.

———

I hadn’t really though about it on an annualized basis. Yeah, that’s actually wild. To be honest, if it gets to 15% by year end, I’m going to be super happy. Hell, I’m already really happy. 35%? I can’t even imagine. Garth and team did say the back half of the year could be spectacular so who knows.

I might celebrate by going out and buying new socks and underwear along with new towel sets. Livin large.

#141 Leftover on 03.26.21 at 8:29 pm

#81 Stone
#89 Dolce Vita

Fellas, you do realize that Honest Realtor is pulling your leg, right?

#142 Howard on 03.26.21 at 8:31 pm

Because people are old does not mean they are senile. Ageism is wrong. – Garth

————————————-

What I meant is that if these elderly people are bidding $1.4 million for a condo townhome in a distant GVR exurb, then they must surely be senile.

#143 Left GTA on 03.26.21 at 8:34 pm

I have a picture of the house listing with the striper pole! LMAO.

#144 Comrade on 03.26.21 at 8:35 pm

“The ‘winner’ paid $1.4 million – or $500,000 above asking.”

Okay, as a low life renter I haven’t gone through a mortgage approval and house purchasing before.

Can someone explain me how someone comes up with extra 500k? I would think you would have to be pre approved for that amount, or do you just go back to the bank and say, hey I need 500k on top of that 800k now that I have submitted the offer?!

#145 Drinking on 03.26.21 at 8:48 pm

#126 Blacksheep

You are correct but you did not mention all the brain dead people who are willing to pay for it! To be honest, I no longer care. To each there own!

This really is the big change; we all knew it was coming, Sept 11 was the start; the big short was the second, now, this is the third. What are you going to do about it; I know what I am doing?

No, I am not some wacked out, the sky is failing type of person, but one can see exactly what is occurring with plenty of good resources out there such as Garth’s!

Stay safe everyone!

#146 Debtslavecreator on 03.26.21 at 8:49 pm

Easy and obviously
They will announce some unimportant policy targeting foreign buyers and maybe reduce the amount of interest investors can write off in a rental and then announce huge first time buyer incentives including a massive FTHB tax credit
Goal is to keep inflating the entry level houses and convert that future expected income into debt service today
While enriching the top layers of the financial and RE sector it also artificially inflates nominal prices and helps inflate government tax revenues
No system like it
Fool idiots into thinking they’re getting richer when you are actually stealing their money

The greatest financial control and governance fraud in history is not done yet

The end game fireworks are still ahead

They will not stop until 99.7% of us are left bankrupt with nothing left to show for a lifetime of work

Buckle up butter cup
Grab the popcorn

#147 Flop... on 03.26.21 at 8:50 pm

Just think of the thousands of office romances in Canada on hold at the moment…

M46BC

#148 just say no on 03.26.21 at 8:51 pm

if people knew that lotto max and 649 lotto winners have something they don’t. You will never know that your competition has juice to win and your realtor will never ever let that cat out of the bag ….ever. Lotto winner money is all around you. Don’t waste your time you sweet innocent, do the right thing kind of person. It is rigged against the old fashioned work hard and save and pay what you can and care about your fellow man. Your nice lady at the bank won’t tell you either for you won’t Borrow your brains out to try to get the sale for the place you don’t truly want anyways. Have a nice weekend all!

#149 Mithan on 03.26.21 at 8:56 pm

They will do nothing, just like they have done the last twenty years. Cheap interest rates = stupid decisions. Period.

#150 DON on 03.26.21 at 9:02 pm

#119 Capt. Serious on 03.26.21 at 6:57 pm
When this sucker blows, it is going to take the Canadian economy with it. And unlike the US financial crisis, there will be no spillover to the broader world economy. Just a lot of newly unemployed Canadians, people stuck in negative equity, and people wondering how they could have been so foolish

*********************

Greed gone wrong…the final chapter.

#151 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.26.21 at 9:04 pm

There is an Up side to this unaffordable housing crisis as more and more people can’t afford to live well in Canada. The sensible ones will leave.

#152 LeeBee on 03.26.21 at 9:10 pm

How about working on increasing housing supply ? Less red tape and regulation to build ? Or is that just a pipe dream ?

#153 DON on 03.26.21 at 9:14 pm

#126 Blacksheep on 03.26.21 at 7:27 pm
I’m still surprised at the endless volume of comments suggesting a multitude of ideas on how to bring the cost of housing down in Canada.

Unfortunately, they are completely missing the big picture of what’s going on with RE values.

The Gov. WANTS inflation in home values due to the fact that when a RE owner gains $ 100,000’s in new home equity, they feel wealthy and fuel the economy by SPENDING.

The BoC has come right out and told us this.

Why aren’t people listening?

***************
I think they are listening…they are tapping that home equity to buy even more.

Meanwhile the rest of the World is looking at us in amazement. We are the talk of the town. Gotta check to see if they are betting on Canadian real estate in Vegas.

High prices on scant listings.

#154 Drinking on 03.26.21 at 9:18 pm

Interesting, our good host Garth has always stated that foreign money makes no difference in Canadian housing prices although I have always argued that when foreign money offers one 10x if not more on a property who in the right mind would not accept that; and so it began; lol, no easy answer to that one.
And now one expect the governments to do what?? It is too far gone, let the market dictate what is next and for Christ sake keep the government OUT OF IT!

There is no evidence non-resident buyers set overall prices or materially impact a market where 95% of purchasers are local. Use logic, not emotion. – Garth

#155 Alberta Nomad on 03.26.21 at 9:26 pm

Came across this article while scrolling through twitter:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/incredible-shrinking-income-inequality-11616517284?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/YEdNABmOFf

Not surprising to readers of this blog I am sure, but many people I work with would be in disbelief. The plague of financial illiteracy….

#156 Stone on 03.26.21 at 9:32 pm

#141 Leftover on 03.26.21 at 8:29 pm
#81 Stone
#89 Dolce Vita

Fellas, you do realize that Honest Realtor is pulling your leg, right?

———

Duh! It’s called playing along because sometimes it’s fun.

Come on. Did you not take the hint at “moisty dreams”?

#157 -=The New Steve French=- on 03.26.21 at 9:34 pm

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?

IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of_jyeDZ3Sg

#158 april on 03.26.21 at 9:40 pm

# 142 – it seems anyone, young or old, has been brain washed by the real estate cartel to buy any home in this market, and those people paying way over already over priced are going to seriously regret their purchases.

#159 Stone on 03.26.21 at 9:44 pm

#144 Comrade on 03.26.21 at 8:35 pm
“The ‘winner’ paid $1.4 million – or $500,000 above asking.”

Okay, as a low life renter I haven’t gone through a mortgage approval and house purchasing before.

Can someone explain me how someone comes up with extra 500k? I would think you would have to be pre approved for that amount, or do you just go back to the bank and say, hey I need 500k on top of that 800k now that I have submitted the offer?!

———

Watch this highly technical and step by step approach to leveraging yourself up the wazzo. All in cartoon format so that you let your guard down and willingly submit to unspeakable acts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hssiVmdtYc

I’ve always wondered what idiots deal with these companies but now I know it’s all my neighbours.

#160 Drinking on 03.26.21 at 9:45 pm

Garth, our good host!

————————————————
There is no evidence non-resident buyers set overall prices or materially impact a market where 95% of purchasers are local. Use logic, not emotion. – Garth

——————————————————–

You know Garth I have and will always have respect your blog and posts but this is one of the cases where we agree to disagree. Foreign money makes a HUGE difference in our real-estate only because Older Canadians are smart enough to sell out only to hamper and become landlords to their own children by offering a percentage ( money for a deposit) for a 300k now asking one mil plus for the same crap along with the headache’s, damaged relationships, and for what?????

I came across this today, interesting read!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/a-record-flight-of-capital-43-6-billion-from-hong-kong-to-canada-as-china-cracks-down

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.21 at 9:56 pm

@#143 Left GTA
“I have a picture of the house listing with the striper pole!”

+++

The owner was a barber?

#162 Zhong Guo Guy on 03.26.21 at 9:59 pm

Big FAILS all around. Sockpuppets at the wheel but maybe thats the plan? Get you so angry at the government and softens you up to a different style of governace to come? A China style with big data and surveillance up the Yangtze? TThere will be few fight against this. Candians (and Eueropeons) have got too soft I’m afraid.
For sure I can never go back to canada now and I’m not going to encourege the kids to do it either.

#163 Chris on 03.26.21 at 10:02 pm

Faron, do you know how to do math. A minimum 25% down and 9% to 21% mortgage rates would of stopped this in it’s tracks.

It is that simple. Most houses are financed through mortgages and cheap, very low down payments, interest rates, 5% and 1.75% to 2.2% mortgage rates. They know what to do but they all allowed and pumped up the market with their policies from Bank of Canada, banks, lenders to government, politicians.

It makes me sick and disgusted. They destroyed Canada’s future especially for the younger generation. All for greed and votes.

#164 Grasshopper on 03.26.21 at 10:34 pm

Other than what Garth writes on this (not so) pathetic blog, I enjoy comments from many of the blog dogs.

(I do miss Smoking Man’s prognostications!)

#165 twofatcats on 03.26.21 at 10:39 pm

In Southern Ontario at this point you will be better off dropping out of high school in Grade 10 to flip houses instead of going to university or trade school.

House below sold in May 2019 for $427K. Back on the market today for $980K.

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/Vwod7vrW9J275mGN/17-Colbeck-Drive-Welland-30732226

https://www.zolo.ca/welland-real-estate/14-colbeck-drive

#166 Garth's Son Drake on 03.26.21 at 10:41 pm

Same thing in BC. The HPI which significantly lowers the actual price of what is hitting the market for exactly what you speak of: masking insane price appreciation to avoid policy measures.

That is not the only thing popping up in BC. More cases of concerning P.1 variant confirmed in Vancouver lab than entire U.S. This thing resists vaccines and can reinfect someone who previously recovered from covid.

This is a big problem. 908 cases in the past 24 hours. 2nd one day highest. The P1 is the worst one on the planet.

#167 Greg Pennigton on 03.26.21 at 10:41 pm

I don’t know if this is possible or BS but I read a fixed income analyst and rate strategist is forecasting bond yields of a 3.75% 5 year bond and 4.5% 10 year Canada bond by 2025 to 2026 and a 5% 5 year bond, 6% 10 year Canada bond by 2028 to 2029.

Also found interesting about this forecast was these are best case scenarios with all the currency, money printing, debasement already happened and if inflation, money printing, currency, monetary debasement, much less confidence in the US dollar etc. is really bad, the forecast by this individual is back to mid 1990’s rates, 8% to 9% bond yields. This all means 5.5% to 9.5% mortgage rates by 2025 to 2029. If this comes true, yikes indeed.

#168 SOMETHINGS UP! on 03.26.21 at 10:45 pm

JUST TO THINK

I get to tell my grandkids that Justin and Chrystia were running the country in 2021.

#169 Al on 03.26.21 at 10:46 pm

Houses are so “unaffordable”, people keep on paying more and more lol.

#170 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.26.21 at 10:52 pm

B&D now up 9.03% ytd….yum yum

#171 Steveston on 03.26.21 at 10:53 pm

Here in BC, the NDP housing policy appears to be to allow the 20 to 40 year olds to kill themselves off with Covid by not imposing further restrictions. Thus limiting the demand for housing in the future.

#172 april on 03.26.21 at 11:14 pm

I have no idea if the man, Martin Armstrong is credible but according to him “you will own nothing, and be happy about it”
Government will take everyone’s property…. but it will cause a revolution.

#173 Faron on 03.26.21 at 11:37 pm

#160 Drinking on 03.26.21 at 9:45 pm

This is a very difficult issue because it can devolve into racism pretty quickly and may have as many participants who are not visible minorities as those who are. In light of the recent shooting in Atlanta, such racism is the last thing that anyone needs right now. And, as Garth says, the people that actually choose to come here and live here are Canadian and should be welcomed. In academia, one frequently works with new immigrants either temporary or permanent and the thought of those hard working students being put through any kind of racist trash is nauseating.

All of that said, It’s not racist or protectionist to say that there’s ample evidence that speculation and foreign money have a material impact on the Vancouver and Toronto markets and, when prices are jacked high enough there, the spillover effect runs into other regions. This effect is much more in play during COVID as money continues to flood in (doesn’t take any immigration for foreign investment to take place) and urban dwellers cash out.

The main problem here is that there is very little data to draw conclusions from. The best that can be done is to infer effects and that will always be imperfect. The need for inference reflects a piss poor stance toward real estate policy in this country that allows such murk to exist in a market that underpins 1/5th of Canada’s economic activity. That’s embarrassing. Free, open and reliable information is the life blood of democracy. This is one segment where Canada’s democratic efforts are falling embarrassingly short.

Finally, in an illiquid market, it takes a small imbalance in buyers v. sellers for prices to run. And because movement in one segment draws along movement in another, imbalance in high end RE can help draw up prices across the board.

Here are some academic articles on the matter. I found these in a brief attempt to find a paper that documents the changes in house prices that followed the foreign owner tax and the spec taxes in Van and Toronto that I read a while back. I don’t know if these authors are quacks as this isn’t my field. But, some papers:

Global China and the making of Vancouver’s residential property market
David Ley: https://doi.org/10.1080/14616718.2015.1119776

Reconnecting the Housing Market to the Labour Market: Foreign Ownership and Housing Affordability in Urban Canada
Joshua C. Gordon: https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2019-009

Mind the gap: implications of overseas investment for regional house price divergence in Britain
Chris Hamnett & Jonathan Reades: https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2018.1444151

The price ripple effect in the Vancouver housing market
Idaliya Grigoryeva & David Ley: https://doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2019.1567202

#174 Faron on 03.26.21 at 11:42 pm

#89 Dolce Vita on 03.26.21 at 4:58 pm

The latter costs me $10 to monetize.

You’re paying too much!

#175 Drinking on 03.26.21 at 11:47 pm

Whether one believes in religion or not, here is a grave digger doing what needs to be done; enjoy those Mexican vacations. Yes Garth this is all about emotions; do not apologize for it; we have lost our ways.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14470191/horrifying-mass-graves-mexico-covid-deaths/

#176 Don Guillermo on 03.26.21 at 11:47 pm

#147 Flop… on 03.26.21 at 8:50 pm
Just think of the thousands of office romances in Canada on hold at the moment…

M46BC
************************************
Agreed Flop, my wife and I met in an office in Port of Spain, Trinidad in 1995. Best thing that ever happened to my life. Hopefully offices and office romances will be back soon. Cheers Mate!

#177 Faron on 03.26.21 at 11:52 pm

#139 Sail Away on 03.26.21 at 8:25 pm

Faron, as my housewarming gift to your family, I have an extra new Milwaukee charger and M18 battery I’d be happy to send your way if you can find a secondhand Milwaukee 18v drill. Let me know.

I was considering taking you up on this, but Nonplused called and reminded me that lithium ion tech is a faux green scourge on planet earth. If you have a compact gas (or coal!) fueled generator I can wheel around to wherever I project, let me know.

#133 Doug t on 03.26.21 at 7:51 pm

She will crucify us on the alter of Socialism

Date night for Doug t!

#178 Axehead on 03.27.21 at 12:04 am

“FOMO Everywhere.”

Not Alberta.

#179 David Greene on 03.27.21 at 12:11 am

Isn’t it one of those “useless public sector workers that
is going to give you/gave you your vaccine injection?

Another one that helped procure it….

And another one that helped contribute to the science that developed it?

#18 Fled on 03.26.21 at 1:35 pm

TPS has a Cybercrymes dept which sends legal notices to Google to remove content on behalf of realtors, school board teachers and other useless public sector workers.

#180 NSNG on 03.27.21 at 1:02 am

I can’t wait for those that caused the problem to fix the problem…

BAHAHA!

#181 zee on 03.27.21 at 1:05 am

I just dont understand how the banks are funding these deals

i get that people are crazy and its all emotion and all that stuff but

the bankers are not funding deals on emotions , its math and logic and calculations and finance ratio etc, so then how are these mortgage getting approved.

#182 NSNG on 03.27.21 at 1:12 am

I don’t know which of the elite are pulling the strings around here but apparently, they feel they are untouchable.

#183 David Hunt on 03.27.21 at 1:31 am

“By the way, Langley has a pop of about 25,000, sits an hour south of Vancouver, with the average household income a little under $60,000. ”
Actually, Garth, the stats you quote are for the City of Langley, whereas the condo townhouse you describe is located in the District of Langley. The Langley District had a population of 117,000 in 2016 and it has grown rapidly since then. In 2015 the average household income in Langley District was $108,000.

#184 NSNG on 03.27.21 at 2:59 am

The real issue here is that when you give people more money they waste it. It wouldn’t be so bad if everyone took all the extra spending money and eliminated debt, helped their communities, and even helped to feed people who are starving to death. That’s not what they do.

I’ve seen it happen in all the booms. When you give people more money they just buy more expensive homes, more expensive cars, and more expensive vacations. In other words, it is just squandered and spent on frivolous selfishness and things people don’t really need, not on fixing what ails our communities, our country, and our world.

#185 willworkforpickles on 03.27.21 at 4:04 am

Combined annual deficits make up the sum total of federal debt that have fallen short in collecting taxes annually to eliminate annual deficits enough already.
And all they want to harp on is increasing taxes further as the debt to GDP ratio widens ever further with spending to no end yet to increase. (no more debt ceilings)
Investors – especially home buyers taking on un-payable in their lifetimes debt should consider what the growing debt monster means for the future of this and financial markets. Airheads without a clue reeled in by a false misled FOMO dominate RE buying now. It gets like this at the top and end of every RE cycle, only this time the factors weighing in point to the bloodiest of outcomes ever in history.
The budget deficit is no laughing matter either where the government is forced to issue more T securities that lead to higher int. rates.
An ever increasing volume of newly issued gov. bonds lowers values with falling prices of existing fixed rate bonds that become less appealing as new ones are created.
As the debt bloats (now exceeding debt to GDP ratios) rates on long term treasury securities rise, pushing up long term interest rates on mortgages.
Rising interest rates compound debt level payments further.
As more and ever more money needs to be printed and added to the debt less and less goes to stimulating the economy.
The $3 trillion dollar Biden infrastructure proposal will be the last of its kind ever.
Spooked and rattled holders of national debt concerned with gov. creditworthiness and if the dollar can even maintain its global safe haven status will demand ever increasing higher rates and the US will comply to stay solvent… all in all compounding the national debt dilemma further still.
As government debt reaches a very difficult to manage size, long term economic growth will really suffer. The expected inflation combined with stifled growth later on will not serve the average North American none too well.
Least of all…soon enough – to be struggling within the next couple of years over-maxed indebted homeowners.

#186 willworkforpickles on 03.27.21 at 5:25 am

#45 Immigrant man

On the subject of immigrants wanting to come to Canada…there would be two dominant types.
1. Those with deep pockets looking to purchase RE at pennies on the dollar (when that time comes)
2. The destitute…refugees etc. (not able to purchase RE)

The rest of the world would mostly find it cost prohibitive to emigrate to Canada now.

#187 Do we have all the facts on 03.27.21 at 6:44 am

The escalation of house and cottage prices, stock prices, Virtual currencies, gold, building materials, gasoline, groceries, automobiles, boats, recreational vehicles, etc reflect what happens when you deliberately increase money supply and lower the cost of debt.

Modern monetary theory (MMT) allows politicians around the world to offset the lack of economic productivity with an expansion in money supply financed by additional debt. In theory stimulation of economic growth will create new employment opportunities and an increase in government revenues down the road. What seems to be happening however is that the combination of a substantial cash infusion and the low cost of borrowing has stimulated the purchase assets at seriously inflated prices.

From an investment perspective cash and fixed income options have marginal value when compared to assets that are currently escalating in value each year. The increasing price of assets is being spun as a means to magically increase net worth not as evidence of inflation and a serious decline in the purchasing power of a currency.
Most governments appear to have bought into MMT where net worth can be created through the accumulation of relatively inexpensive debt and unfortunately many citizens have followed their example. Once addicted to MMT it becomes very difficult to accept the reality that ones net worth is now being measured in dollars that have been reduced in value through inflation.

MMT will eventually collapse when the income of the general population fails to keep up with the inflation of prices or when the demand for wage increases leads to higher inflation that can only be controlled by increasing interest rates. MMT is Catch 22 in action and it appears as if our Federal government are content to tweak the dials of political survival until D-day eventually arrives.

Economic growth requires net productivity. The inflation of prices without an increase in net productivity only reduces the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar and at some point the world will take notice. How long do you think you will be able to generate $1,000,000 from the sale of a $500,000 home without the world beginning to question what the Canadian dollar is really worth.

#188 Toronto RE on 03.27.21 at 6:46 am

Thanks as always for the great blog Garth. Absolutely insane to see Toronto RE prices these last few months. I can’t believe recent sold prices.

As an owner of multiple Toronto properties, I love to see it. My thought is Freeland has to address it in the budget. Aksi would not be surprised seeing capital gains inclusion jump to 66% or 75%.

I read just yesterday in Globe real estate section that activity is already slowing down in ‘areas outside of the core’. Offer nights are getting pretty quiet. Not at all surprised – these areas will fall first, and the hardest.

#189 Wrk.dover on 03.27.21 at 7:56 am

#185 willworkforpickles on 03.27.21 at 4:04 am

——————————————–

So, the region to live in will be the one with the smallest percentage of household debt.

Govt. debt, well……………..?

#190 Steven Rowlandson on 03.27.21 at 8:38 am

DELETED

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.21 at 8:39 am

@#162 Zhong Go Guy

“Big FAILS all around. Sockpuppets at the wheel but maybe thats the plan? Get you so angry at the government and softens you up to a different style of governace to come?A China style with big data and surveillance up the Yangtze? ”

++++

Is that how were describing a communist dictatorship with visions of world domination now?

Not to worry Go Guy.
Trump was booted in a fair election.
Trudeau’s turn will come eventually.
Thats how a democracy works.

Give us a call when China’s economy stalls and the world wide Uighur boycotts start including our food…..

I’m sure Winnie The Xi will be willing to start an escalating war over “stolen” Taiwan to get the 1.4 billion citizens minds off the fact that their Savings are gone and work has dried up.
Or perhaps he will authorize the building of another Ghost city or three.

#192 millmech on 03.27.21 at 9:18 am

One of the Liberals election promises to lower housing costs, another one was to balance the budget.
Just look at how they have handled those two major issues and they are going to get reelected with a majority, all bought and paid for with your billions in tax dollars.

#193 Linda on 03.27.21 at 11:57 am

#18 ‘Fled’ – where do you live where Realtors are public sector employees? Unless they are holding down two jobs – public sector employee AND realtor.

#194 paulo on 03.27.21 at 2:36 pm

TRUDEAU’S worst nightmare come true:

The Real Estate / Housing Crisis Becomes the main issue in the up coming election.

#195 GreaterFool on 03.27.21 at 3:43 pm

I bet $ for one pair socks that the help from Socks’ government will be “try to ‘help’ newbie buyers with more incentives – throwing gas on the conflagration”, they have never disappointed us.

#196 Alex on 03.27.21 at 7:28 pm

Home ownership rates: Toronto 66%, Vancouver 63% , Montreal 55%. – Garth
How many of them are actual owners (fully paid off mortgage) and how many are mortgage owners?

#197 Tyberius on 03.27.21 at 8:29 pm

Home ownership rates: Toronto 66%, Vancouver 63% , Montreal 55%. – Garth

Question: If a homeowner has 10% equity (ie 90% mortgaged), doesn’t the bank in effect ‘own’ the home?

So, even if 63% ‘own’ a home (in Vancouver), I’m guessing only a small number are mortgage-free, and a significant number in high-ratio situations.

Is there a list which breaks down % equity to % mortgage?

#198 Nonplused on 03.28.21 at 1:32 am

#186 willworkforpickles on 03.27.21 at 5:25 am
#45 Immigrant man

On the subject of immigrants wanting to come to Canada…there would be two dominant types.
1. Those with deep pockets looking to purchase RE at pennies on the dollar (when that time comes)
2. The destitute…refugees etc. (not able to purchase RE)

The rest of the world would mostly find it cost prohibitive to emigrate to Canada now.

—————————–

Only the YYZ and YVR service areas. Canada is not a country so much as it is a confederation. What happens in Toronto is not always the same as what happens in Calgary. Of course the supreme court ruling on carbon taxes could change all that. We might very well be a kingdom or empire now.

The good news is that the carbon taxes are coming in just when everyone has figured out how to not commute. Like the talked about capital gains taxes on primary residences, it will arrive just after the horse has left the barn.

#199 George on 03.28.21 at 10:30 am

housing? too late, ship sailed

long gone is affordable housing, Canada will be a transfer of wealth nation.

https://biv.com/article/2021/03/reuters-report-hong-kong-capital-outflow-canada-reaches-436-billion-2020

Federal govt needs revenue, they have no problem destroying the future of our children. Optics, that Trudeau idiot is well loved, so he stays. Reap what u sow Canada– to think, Canadians think Americans are the dumb ones, lol

#200 renters 2nd class? on 03.29.21 at 3:04 pm

“create two classes of citizens” …
I thought the running theme of this blog was that renting was a smart option. Seems a bit ironic now after all this time for it to seem to be suggesting that the bugaboo of renters bein second class citizens and have-not is real.