The illusion

In speaking with Evan and Barb on Monday it was clear. Nobody is spared from this. They’re both 40, live in a rented flat (a nice one, leafy street, decent hood, Yorkipoo) and have interesting jobs. WFH and virtual these days, of course. “But the before times were good,” she says. ”They’ll come back.”

Savings are a little less than $200,000 spread across registered accounts. No pensions, and they worry about retirement. They also want a house. Downtown. These days even a slanty semi or a geriatric row house on a dodgy street will set them back close to a million and a half. So all the savings would be gone, plus a seven-figure mortgage and a monthly nut that would be north of five grand, or over twice the $2,000 they now pay. Oh yeah, and no retirement plan – all net worth in one asset and a fat debt destined to refinance at higher rates in the future.

We had The Chat. They were crestfallen. And there’s a good chance they’ll ignore me. After all, [email protected] is ready to hand over a million in debt.

Did you see the latest Nik Nanos poll?

One year ago this month – when real estate slumped and prices sagged – 9% of Canadians said they expected house prices to rise in the next six months. This March – in the midst of a boom with values exploding – over 60% are convinced the market will surge. It’s the first time since he started polling 13 years ago, Nik says, this high a reading has occurred. And it takes place as mortgage rates creep up, the pandemic continues and inflated prices mean fewer and fewer people (like Evan & Barb) can buy.

Conclusion: high prices are begetting higher prices. The market is FOMO-fueled. It’s sucking in everyone, even those who would sacrifice too much and shoulder huge risk trying to play. This means real estate is ripe for more speculation, flipping and gamification. Affordability will continue to deteriorate. Household debt levels will bloat. The ultimate risk of a market correction grows as the masses crave property, even knowing it’s impossible for valuations to rise without end, or a period of reversal.

Human nature doesn’t change. Once upon a time we all wanted tulip bulbs, gold coins, shares in Nortel and Bre-X, GameStop and now houses in Tillsonburg and Port Hardy. In every irrational boom those who got in last – the greater fools – paid a huge price for their desire. But, is it different this time, like most folks think?

It seems so, thanks to cheap rates and low inflation. It’s the great illusion of our times.

US blogger Ben Carlson niftily explains that crashed mortgage rates can easily make high prices seem to disappear. In other words, it’s all about the size of your monthly not the grandeur of your debt. So loans in the 1.5% or 2% or 2.5% range make it feel like buying a hideously-inflated house ain’t such a bad idea – especially because (of course) prices always go up!

In the chart below he traces the steadily-rising US average house prices (way cheap by Canadian standards) while showing the downward trajectory of mortgages (Americans get to lock up for 30 years and refinance every time they drop. Sheesh.) In other words, prices can jump but people can still buy. And so they do.

Cheap loans make crazy prices look less so

Source: Ben Carlson

Now, this is ducky so long as property values continue to rise forever and/or mortgage rates stay low forever. Then you can own, increase net worth and service the debt.

However on this planet, that’s not going to happen. The cost of money will swell (already happening) and dwindling affordability means fewer qualified buyers. Meanwhile the fact two-thirds expect romping valuations ahead pretty much guarantees more speculation, FOMO, panic-buying, debt-binging and, yes, higher prices. Unless you were born after 2000, you know that every pendulum eventually swings back. Bad news for the unprepared.

And that brings us to this chart. What is different between Canada and the US? This…

But do buyers today understand the future risk?

Source: Bllomberg

American household debt has tracked relatively lower since the real estate market there blew up around 2006. Not here. In fact so far during the pandemic, we’ve borrowed another $120 billion on top of the trillion+ we already owed to mortgage lenders. This was done when (a) loan rates were the lowest ever and (b) house prices were at an historic high.

In the past year 12 major markets in Canada have posted 30% (or more) price increases. CREA says values across the country will rise, on average, another 16.5% in 2021. New buyers, like Evan and Barb (if they listen to the bankers) will be paying an unheard-of price for property, leveraged excessively, yet the pain will be masked with 2% financing. For a while.

If mortgages renew in five years (as expected) at 3.5% or greater, or property values flatline or drop, then heartache. The result for these two would be 60 months of living costs which were double that of renting, nothing saved towards retirement (five years closer) and a post-pandemic world where WFH, aggressive nesting, low inventory and insatiable demand were but quaint memories. The before times.

146 comments ↓

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:22 pm

Choosing between Hooters and COVID testing?
No contest.
Love their burgers.

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:24 pm

#138 IHTCD9
For now though, imho; you probably couldn’t beat a dude out in the sticks living in a 1000sf self built stone/wood cabin, a well, septic system, with clean modern wood heat, and driving an EV.
————————-
Well, throw in a vegetable garden and some chickens and rabbits, then you’re really cooking.
The hooch still, though, may set you back a bit.

#3 Love_The_Cottage on 03.22.21 at 2:31 pm

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:22 pm
Choosing between Hooters and COVID testing?
No contest.
Love their burgers.
_________
I’m more a fan of their buns.

#4 ogdoad on 03.22.21 at 2:32 pm

Expectation of growth – not stagnation! My grandfather used to say ‘ bricks and mortar, Og’. That was a long time ago. There are houses around me that have doubled in 5 years to levels I would never have dreamed. I met people in Istanbul (born and raised) who where moving to Canada. Highly educated. First thing they wanted was to BUY a house. Why? B/c they were out of reach there but in Canadian cities, let the goods times roll?

Expectation of growth. Evan and Barb will buy – congrats! HGTV sends their regards! And, most likely, next year will be patting themselves on the back.

Og

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-couple-bids-400-000-over-asking-prices-and-loses-as-housing-market-remains-hot-1.5354943

#5 TurnerNation on 03.22.21 at 2:35 pm

Today Questrade broker launched QuestMortgage – to existing clients.

……………..

The name of this New System is CHAOS. Daily “news” stores to overwhelm us, making us passive. By design.
Today = 2+2=5. Next week, a New study confirms that 2+2=6.

In the War on Small Business Toronto unleashed Chaos – only one day notice to re-open patios. How to muster staff, suppliers, food, new menus, clean patios etc?

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/03/restaurants-toronto-dont-want-open-patios/

—-Economic hits in this WW3:

CNBC’s Closing Bell- @CNBCClosingBell
Mar 19
“This six-foot distancing requirement has probably been the single costliest mitigation tactic that we’ve employed in response to COVID,” says
@scottgottliebmd
https://twitter.com/CNBCClosingBell/status/1373017828866068498?s=20

-Umm yeah as I noted since MAY 2020 here:

#150 TurnerNation on 05.20.20 at 7:36 am
We are told it’s temporary…’distancing’ is the greatest economic tool/weapon ever invented. It can bankrupt airlines, restaurants; it can prevent kids playing with each other. There’s nothing it cannot do.

————————-
The Former First World countries are to be locked down for years, our leaders are suggesting in the
‘news’ aka predictive programming.
Helpfully the Feds are to legalize assisted dying soon. Aren’t they nice!!

-Allowing summer holidays abroad risks another lockdown, Johnson is warned (theguardian.com)
– UK: Tory backlash over plans to extend draconian lockdown laws — Evening StandardNews Links (apple.news)

-No reduction in restrictions: Possibly only from the beginning of June. Dutch AD News (ad.nl)

-‘People are exhausted’: Germans grow weary of endless lockdown(theguardian.com)
-Germany into lockdown until 18 of April(welt.de)

– Lower Ossington Theatre closes permanently amid CoVid-19 pandemic (cp24.com)

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:36 pm

We just renewed our 5 year mtg for 1.65%.
The plan is not to pay it down early.
At that low rate, that would not be smart.
Instead, we’ll invest any extra money wisely and diversely.
And, if in 5 years, the rates are high, we just pay the sucker off.

#7 Father's Daughter on 03.22.21 at 2:38 pm

The worst thing about spending an astronomical amount of money on these houses is how truly crappy a lot of these houses are. It’s one thing if you’re paying absolute top dollar for a spectacular place. That is not the case. A lot of excited new homeowners are going to be shocked when they realize the quality of house that they have actually purchased.
After living in our TO detached rental for 2.5 years, that would easily sell for $2M (subway 200m away, local obsession with schools) I can report that there is NOTHING $2M worthy about this house. I honestly wouldn’t want it for $1M. Loud, old, sloppy renovations, everything slanted, windows don’t open etc etc. the list goes on
Good luck to the buyers. They’re going to need it. No money leftover to fix the mess that they have “won” in the bidding war. It’s an illusion alright

#8 Brett in Calgary on 03.22.21 at 2:45 pm

It is remarkable though how long this insanity has lasted. I know I underestimated the banks/brokers/agents’ ability to keep this bubble inflated. As my wife says, I’ve been famously calling this housing bust for years… hasn’t happened yet.

#9 Evanne on 03.22.21 at 2:58 pm

Let be realistic, housing prices will not come down.

They may correct a bit, but it wont go down to pre-covid days.

The trend will be following towards Europe style where it will take 2 generations to pay off the house.

And yes, that means 200 years from now, the haves and haves-not will be based on housing assets. (Inequality is no longer based on income but assets)

Repeating history where this is very common in the 18th and 19th century.

#10 Millennial 1%er on 03.22.21 at 2:59 pm

It’s only a matter of time. A game of musical chairs with helocs & 20x leverage & the potential to make millions of dollars.

#11 Prince Polo on 03.22.21 at 3:02 pm

More hogs at the mortgage trough, gorging themselves into an eventual bacon-skewering. My Cdn bank divvies are licking their chops, accordingly.

Meanwhile, is there even a big5 bank willing to lock in a margin loan rate for a 5yr term, or am I stuck with the posted variable rate?

Signed,
“Loser” renter extraordinaire!

#12 VGRO and chill on 03.22.21 at 3:07 pm

Having 200k at 40 as a couple is a fail.

Rather than looking at buying a home they should be looking at improving their financial picture. Yeesh. People like this should not be be buying housing. No wonder the housing market is so ridiculous.

This is what happens when we have a federal government hell bent on protecting people from their own bad choices (propping up the housing market constantly). It just creates more problems.

#13 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.22.21 at 3:08 pm

To be fair I never ever thought that a reader of this blog can be this reckless.
All they should buy should they really want is IMHO whatever the 2K monthly they pay now can get in mortgage so let’s round to a 500K-600K final purchase .Yes that would buy a condo of some sort or older townhouse. That is the first step on the property ladder.
Let’s remember that carrying costs ( property tax,strata,insurance) will add another 600 monthly to whatever is purchased plus utilities will be more ( or maybe partially included in a strata).
If in 5 years or so the market is still good sell and move up a step,if not easier to sell something cheaper ( I find that here in LM thinking in 500K price points works well for approximate planning) at a lower loss.
Now I see why Garth moved to an all or nothing approach as “buy what you can afford” message is totally lost on folks as they severely overestimate what they can afford and forget to account for the worst ( job loss ,unplanned pregnancy, sickness).
Sad times ,good to be a seller though if you plan to downsize.

#14 Lub on 03.22.21 at 3:08 pm

Garth, don’t think it’s constructive to plop tulips and gold coins in with houses. Apples and oranges. Houses are mostly a need. They are backed by government through tax payers and 70% of canadians are home owners. Also by comparing them to tulips you’re implying a big crash is imminent which is not that case and you’ve advised of that too. Also, comparing to Nortel is also not relevant. The company is gone after crash. Houses and land will always be around will not go solvent.

#15 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 3:16 pm

Question:

If I much prefer Charlie Munger’s deep thoughts to mortgages and real estate, does that make me the most boring Canadian at a party?

https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/

#16 I Truly Suck on 03.22.21 at 3:31 pm

We can blame central banks 100% for their reckless plunge protection and BS money printing, blatantly lying about inflation,manipulation of interest rates and yields that warped the values of everything in our lives. Recessions and downturns need to play out. The end result will be horrific.

They should all be slammed in federal prison with keys thrown away.

#17 S.Bby on 03.22.21 at 3:31 pm

Random Length lumber is at $925 US today. Yikes! The cost to build the average house (if there is such a thing now) is at least $50K more just in lumber and related building materials than a year ago.

#18 S.Bby on 03.22.21 at 3:32 pm

It’s the old saying: we don’t buy houses we buy the payments.

#19 Suburban Bob on 03.22.21 at 3:35 pm

#7 Father’s Daughter on 03.22.21 at 2:38 pm

The worst thing about spending an astronomical amount of money on these houses is how truly crappy a lot of these houses are. It’s one thing if you’re paying absolute top dollar for a spectacular place. That is not the case. A lot of excited new homeowners are going to be shocked when they realize the quality of house that they have actually purchased.

After living in our TO detached rental for 2.5 years, that would easily sell for $2M (subway 200m away, local obsession with schools) I can report that there is NOTHING $2M worthy about this house. I honestly wouldn’t want it for $1M. Loud, old, sloppy renovations, everything slanted, windows don’t open etc etc. the list goes on

Good luck to the buyers. They’re going to need it. No money leftover to fix the mess that they have “won” in the bidding war. It’s an illusion alright

___________________________________________

Wise words. People, more than property values, will determine how well you fit in your neighbourhood and enjoy life there. In Toronto, you so often find that your neighbours living in these inflated-price houses are pretty much just trailer trash or wannabes of some kind, unfortunately.

We lived for over two decades while in High Park, then in Leaside and also Corso Italia at six different houses altogether, now refugees from the 6 in small town Ontario and loving it.

The people in High Park and Leaside on streets like Parkhurst Blvd and High Park Ave. generally had household incomes of $300K or more. Pretty smart, responsible folks, easy to get along with. Even some polite Harley riders! The houses are sturdier, more quality built and it shows.

In Corso Italia, houses have bloated up to way beyond what they should be and people we encountered living on streets like Northcliffe Blvd and Conway Ave were low income, usually under $100K per household. Lots of ignorant types there, some barely speaking English even though in Canada for decades, lots of fast driving on the roads, drug exchanges in parked cars, illegal construction noise on Sundays (because what else do losers have to do I guess), leaving trucks and campers parked on the streets illegally for weeks, piling snow onto the roadways and dumping reno waste on the sidewalks, to name a few pleasures. Low education levels and domestic abuse also were evident too often. The shacks were all pretty flimsy imitations of better builds elsewhere. Lots of households with unemployed dads is also a red flag to watch out for there.

There are very few places where a $1.5 or $2 million house will make you feel like you’re enjoying a $1.5 or $2 million neighbourhood quality of life in Toronto. Shop carefully. The quality of your home life will not be worth those inflated values it if your neighbours are low grade. Do more demographic research before you enter a bidding war.

#20 So glad I sold on 03.22.21 at 3:36 pm

The buying insanity continues for some. A friend’s mom sold a detached for over 2 million dollars. Unfortunately because she used it as an atm over the years and had 3 mortgages on it she was left with only 90 thousand dollars. She has also maxed out 10 credit cards. Lucky for her the house prices had appreciated over the last 2 months or she would have been underwater. The problem now is no cash flow other than gis and old age pension. Family members had no idea what was owing and that the house had gone into foreclosure. There are probably many more instances like this one than people are aware of.

#21 Steven Rowlandson on 03.22.21 at 3:43 pm

The greed and insanity never end does it?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/more-canadians-than-ever-before-are-expecting-higher-home-prices-nanos-1.1580489

#22 Steven Rowlandson on 03.22.21 at 3:48 pm

“But do buyers today understand the future risk?”

They want it now and they think the day of reckoning will never happen to them or in their life time.
Tell them once and leave them to it.

#23 Alberta Ed on 03.22.21 at 3:54 pm

Rates will go up, and on top of that, Sock Boy and his bud Christy Freespender will slap capital gains tax on housing — after the election, of course.

#24 leebow on 03.22.21 at 3:56 pm

House prices reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

#25 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 3:56 pm

#15 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 3:16 pm
Question:

If I much prefer Charlie Munger’s deep thoughts to mortgages and real estate, does that make me the most boring Canadian at a party?

https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/

=================================

Was that rhetorical?

One of the reasons I post links to amazing women playing music or motorcycles or airplanes is I don’t know how to relate to the obsession with home ownership and mortgages. I want to contribute, just not many points of commonality beyond the cover of a passport. Have a home, never had a mortgage. Never will. But if I had to, I’d sure as hell listen to Garth. I did for investing and it’s literally set me on easy street.

Surely there’s more to life than worrying if some number will go up or down? I’ve tried to expound on the possibility and value of arbitraging one locale’s income benefits to another’s cost advantages but I just got shouted down by the haters so I quit that ages ago.

What I’ve realized is that Canadians WANT to blow their brains out taking on debt to pay back for a lifetime. How do you help people like that? How do you reason with them? And more importantly, why even try when people are weirdly determined to self-destruct?

(Those WERE rhetorical.)

#26 KRIS KROSS on 03.22.21 at 3:58 pm

How does that Household debt chart look today, 3 years later?

I’m guessing we climbed up some, but I’m also guessing the Americans are putting in an apple pie effort to narrow the gap to Canadians in household debt.

Yanks likely made up most of that 25% gap by now, right?

#27 Ken R on 03.22.21 at 4:05 pm

In Canada we build houses out of wood, they need constant maintenance; sometimes expensive maintenance. Met a kid today, can’t afford a new water heater. Over paid for the house, no maintenance budget and not handy at all. Haven’t seen the place, but I guarantee it will be a run down tired place in a few years. Furnaces, shingles, hot water tanks all cost money and no one has a buck to spare!

#28 The Queen on 03.22.21 at 4:09 pm

#18 S.Bby on 03.22.21 at 3:32 pm

It’s the old saying: we don’t buy houses we buy the payments.

————

The actual truth is, you don’t buy the houses, you buy the leasehold…from the government, who acts as the agent for The Queen and owner of nearly all of Canada’s land.

In many European countries, houses are called “Immovables” because…well, as they have found out over the few wars, you leave that house behind when the enemy approaches.

#29 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 4:10 pm

#140 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 1:52 pm
#133 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 11:39 am
#112 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 5:24 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkXBVSFjA6E

Carmen Vandenberg killing it on a beat-up Tele.

——————————————————

About as exiting & genuine recording as Milli Vanilli

——————————–

Oh, sorry.

How many Grammy nominations have you received

————————————-

You must love Adelle on that measure of success!

#30 Squire on 03.22.21 at 4:11 pm

#7 Father’s Daughter on 03.22.21 at 2:38 pm
—————————————————–
I agree. Many folks have no clue how to repair things themselves and the cost of labor is very high not to mention the materials too. They’re buying a money pit in addition to huge mortgages. I honestly don’t know how they sleep at night with these high six figure mortgages. Just rent the darn place, sheesh.

#31 Flop... on 03.22.21 at 4:17 pm

“But do buyers today understand the future risk?”

Your chart asks.

As I noted in my East vs West post maybe a week or so a go, with the East rising and the West stumbling, the line is becoming fuzzier between the two zones again.

Oakridge on the Westside is out of favour, huge multi-year redevelopment of the shopping centre Oakridge Mall construction doesn’t help, but most of the Westside is out of favour anyway, Oakridge the most and it is close to the East/West border.

Currently the average sale is 2.2 million, my district of Fraser, where we still say hello to each other, is averaging 1.7 and is two districts over on the Eastside.

Whilst most of Greater Vancouver is doing reasonably well, heavy prices are still being paid for exuberance of the 2016 Spring Market.

Why didn’t they all just hang on, real estate only goes up, some people on here state.

A lot of the properties in The a Flop Files were purchased in early 2016 and we’re back on the market a few months later hoping for a quick gain like the case I showed yesterday for taxation purposes.

Losses happened all over the city buy let’s focus on the place where the most carnage happened and is still unbelievably to most still happening.

These folks were paying 4.5 say, hoping to get maybe early 5’s a short time later but the wind change direction and some of them had to bail for 3.8/3.9 sort of thing.

It’s easy to look back now and say just hang on, you try playing the mental gave of coughing up 10k a month with a deteriorating market pissing on your Welcome Mat every morning.

I documented on here a house not far from where I live, two set of speculators paid a little over a million, tried to flip without adding value in the same market and took hits of around 150k for their efforts.

Then someone swooped in with a better plan at reduced prices, demolished the dilapidated property and built a duplex on it and sold it without any problems.

Right plan, right time, right price point the appealed to the most buyers with the least amount of risk attached.

Will the fervour of 2016 return to the Westside, I don’t know, it was kinda fun to watch from a work perspective, but I hope the fanciest parts of the Eastside don’t go down the same path and get hollowed out…

M46BC

#32 NoName on 03.22.21 at 4:20 pm

Hey Flop

Interesting choice of words other day, makes me smile all weekend.
Since dishwasher died 6 months ago, it was more or less like this around house.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMeAKN8oa/

#33 TurnerNation on 03.22.21 at 4:23 pm

The illusion alright – of Freedom.

Hammer those Former First World Countries.
Australia, UK have locked their citizens inside the country by way of a virtual Berlin Wall. This is all about controlling a virus yes? Why not just test people returning?
This is the insane New Green Deal write large. Control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movement/Travel.

“The [UK] government has published new COVID regulations that will come into force from 29 March, when current lockdown restrictions end.
The new regulations, released on Monday, include laws that will make it illegal to leave the country without a “reasonable excuse”.”
…………….

But why, why the forced slowdown in the economies of the Former First World Countries?
Getting people used to scarcity: long delays on hold – phone calling large corps; lining up outside stores like in USSR; shipping delays; travel all but banned.
The Long Game our elites play. You see the planning and forethought this has taken. Quoting an elite from the 1990s:

“The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these dangers are caused by human intervention… the real enemy then, is humanity itself.””
“It is clear that current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle-class … involving high meat intake, consumption of large amounts of frozen and “convenience” foods, ownership of motor vehicles, numerous electrical appliances, home and workplace air-conditioning … expensive suburban housing … are not sustainable. … A shift is necessary towards lifestyles … less geared to … environmentally damaging consumption patterns.”
“It is simply not feasible for sovereignty to be exercised unilaterally by individual nation-states, however powerful. It is a principal which will yield only slowly and reluctantly to the imperatives of global environmental cooperation.”

…………

Stuck in Kanada. Wait till the new Carbon Tax hike. Ask the Minister of Middle Class Prosperity. Oh how our leaders mock us so.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that there can be little doubt of the impact of Rogers’s purchase of Shaw, and of Shaw’s Freedom Mobile, on prices for wireless service. The Globe’s Andrew Coyne writes that Freedom is the only player of any size in the Canadian wireless industry outside of the Big Three — Rogers, Bell and Telus — which together control more than 90 per cent of the market. That Rogers has promised not to increase wireless prices for three years only tells you how confident they are of their ability to raise prices in the longer run, once Freedom is taken out. Why do Canadians pay among the highest air fares in the world? Because the Canadian airline industry is a protected duopoly. Why do we pay among the highest mutual fund fees in the world? Because the financial services industry is reserved to a handful of Canadian banks and other players. Why do we pay twice the market price or more for such staple foods as milk, eggs and poultry? Because these industries are organized as state-supervised price-fixing rings. During the great free-trade debate of 1988, unions warned of “dog-eat-dog competition.” Canadian policy remains the same: to enable both dogs to feast on consumers. © 2021 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#34 Woof on 03.22.21 at 4:25 pm

The BoC is suppressing rates, and the feds are giving free CERB money. Up and leave out of this forsaken country before it’s too late. Toronto is a city for the rich.

#35 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.22.21 at 4:26 pm

They should hang onto the rental property they have. I know a lot of rental property owners who are selling into this market. And who’s to blame them.

#36 Kaiser on 03.22.21 at 4:27 pm

When the government of Canada is running $500B-$1T deficits per year, and when the BOC is printing money like mad, that means the Canadian currency value is rapidly becoming worthless.

So what some people are actually doing is trading in fiat ‘funny money’ that could very well be worthless in 10 years for something tangible. At least a house can keep you warm in winter. Or they are taking on ‘funny money’ debt with servicing costs that are practically free for the next 5 years. Sure, some may be pooched in 5 years if things change dramatically, but remember certain people were saying 5 years ago that rates would go up and the end was neigh? What actually happened? Rates went down to new historical lows. Don’t think they can go lower? We’ve yet to try negative rates.

What some people fail to imagine is that the BOC and governments are not actually looking out for the best interests of the common person…

Rates are not going negative and the currency will not be worthless in ten years. – Garth

#37 S.Bby on 03.22.21 at 4:28 pm

#23 leebow

I see what you did there…

#38 IHCTD9 on 03.22.21 at 4:30 pm

These days, I don’t dare go out in public and prophesize about the housing bubble popping. I think the BOC and federal government are listening in, and will do all in their power to pump more gas into the bag the minute I utter the words.

It’s really unbelievable what is happening.

#39 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.22.21 at 4:33 pm

The unlimited power of printing at the FED and CB’s means continued low interest rates for a very long time.

Speculation, now in uber-vogue territory, ain’t going away anytime soon.

Meanwhile, just make sure to ask for that pay raise to offset incoming taxation increases.

CBs do not control mortgage rates. – Garth

#40 earthboundmisfit on 03.22.21 at 4:37 pm

I too am convinced that elimination of the principal residence capital gains exemption is a forgone conclusion. The Libs won’t dare campaign on it, but it will follow shortly after their re-election with a majority. With the Cons having committed political suicide this past weekend, a Lib majority is a slam dunk. Sigh.

#41 Brian Ripley on 03.22.21 at 4:37 pm

Apart from the madness of crowds, we have not been building sufficient affordable housing. My Housing Starts charts for Canada and Provinces with over 10,000 starts/year are up with the latest data (FEB):
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

The downtrend in starts since the mid-1970s is till intact. Perhaps the uptrend since the mid-1990s will break out to the upside in 2021-2022.

STARTS CAN QC ON AB BC
Y/Y -6% -11% -3% -2% -5%
10yr/10yr 5% -1% 16% -8% 36%
SincePeaks -25% -35% -29% -52% -20%
PeakDates 1976 1987 1973 2006 2019

Although at the moment it looks like a breakout of housing production is on hold.

#42 Jake on 03.22.21 at 4:41 pm

“buying a hideously-inflated house ain’t such a bad idea – especially because (of course) prices always go up!”

But have we ever had, for example, over any 30 year period where houses did not go up? If not, then it is true… houses do always go up as long as you remain an owner in the housing market. For many, trying to time a home purchase can be just as difficult as timing the stock market.

Canadians hold a home for an average of six years. The buying/selling activity means a lot of market timing. Putting all your eggs in one basket (or bungalow) is a dumb idea. – Garth

#43 Dolce Vita on 03.22.21 at 4:45 pm

Yukon DV

Found out in a recent CBC article Yukon vax at 850 to 1000 jabs per day. Accepted CTV vax tracker population est. of 42,180 and not Googles for calc results below.

If Yukon* DIVERT ALL of their unused, onhand vax (19,050 doses) to single dose vax’ng only…well here is how long it will take them to do it and below takes into account those vax’d 1 dose already (Mar 19, 51.57% single dose vax’d):

% of population single dose, DAYS to vax (850 or 1000 per day).

70% 8-9
75% 10-12
80% 12-14
85% 14-17
90% 16-18
95% 18-22
100% 20-24 need 1,380 more doses than they currently have on hand

If they keep doing their 2:1, single dose vs. 2 dose apportioning of vax, take the DAYS above an X1.5.

Probably within the month, worst case a month and a half Canada NUMERO UNO Worldwide achieving herd immunity. mRNA vax they are using is 92% effective 1st jab.

Have Tweeted Health Canada (and emailed the Yukon) to keep an eye on their numbers. Also sent Yukon kudos and “baci d’Italia”.

Pretty sure the World will be more than just interested in what they are about to achieve and will be GREEN with envy.

Out of date numbers per CTV vax tracker but looks pretty organized to me in the GREAT white north:

“Sleeves up, Yukon. The future is looking bright.” [an understatement]

https://yukon.ca/this-is-our-shot

————————-

*And yes today I emailed Yukon my EVIL single jab only plot to see them achieve herd immunity before anyone else in the World…all that so I can brag in Italia.

#44 Suburban Bob on 03.22.21 at 4:45 pm

I should have corrected myself a bit in describing Toronto hoods. The Corso Italia area does have some properties creeping towards $1.5 million, but the norm is closer to $800K to $1.2 there. These places were all on sale in the early 2000s for anywhere from $150K to about $275K.

In contrast, Leaside and High Park SFDs were selling at around $500K+ at that time. So this illustrates how price inflation has really pumped up the prices in a lot of third-rate hoods in Toronto.

This is an “illusion”, as Garth says, to be very wary of when buying in Toronto. Lots of hoods without real job stability are going to take a big hit in the years ahead, imho.

#45 Stone on 03.22.21 at 4:48 pm

They’re both 40.

Savings are a little less than $200,000 spread across registered accounts. No pensions, and they worry about retirement. They also want a house.

We had The Chat. They were crestfallen. And there’s a good chance they’ll ignore me. After all, [email protected] is ready to hand over a million in debt.

———

It’s ok. It’s not about quantity. It’s all about quality.

What these two have saved up together in 40 years, I’ve made in a few months from my balanced and diversified portfolio. And I’m only a few years older than them. Strange how that wouldn’t be a motivation for these two poor lost souls. It boggles the mind.

B&D at 8.53% YTD.

I’m sure there will be no regrets buying a shack without conditions. What could go wrong? Hmmm. What could go wrong?

#46 Rainman on 03.22.21 at 4:57 pm

Rates are not going negative and the currency will not be worthless in ten years. – Garth

How can you be so sure that rates can’t go negative? and no our currency won’t be worthless, but with inflation it seems it will be worth a lot less, so why not have an asset?

Extreme statements, like extreme beliefs, usually end in regret. – Garth

#47 BlogDog123 on 03.22.21 at 4:58 pm

Garth: If mortgages renew in five years (as expected) at 3.5% or greater, or property values flatline or drop, then heartache. The result for these two would be 60 months of living costs which were double that of renting, nothing saved towards retirement (five years closer) and a post-pandemic world where WFH, aggressive nesting, low inventory and insatiable demand were but quaint memories. The before times.

===

You forgot all kinds of NEW municipal, provincial and federal taxes, fees, levies, charges, permits, surcharges to pay for all the COVID and T2-era spend, spend, spend that has to be paid for somehow by you-know-who…

#48 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 4:59 pm

#24 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 3:56 pm

Surely there’s more to life than worrying if some number will go up or down? I’ve tried to expound on the possibility and value of arbitraging one locale’s income benefits to another’s cost advantages but I just got shouted down by the haters so I quit that ages ago.

———-

I’m a big fan of arbitrage of any type. And the income/RE arbitrage is exactly what you, me, Don G, Jane, Keith in Rio, most Floridian snowbirds and several others on this blog are already doing.

I find it funny that my house is worth more than Warren Buffett’s house. He has a slight edge in net worth, admittedly.

#49 [email protected] on 03.22.21 at 4:59 pm

You are forgetting one thing! Canadians are not the brightest lot. What have they ever really accomplished? It’s usually riding the coat tails of others. OK, I’ll admit I think they used to be a hotbed of musical talent decades ago. But even that ran its course.

My neighbour, who didn’t even know what the OTC was, chased a startup biotech company, doubling down on the falling knife. She thinks it has to go back up to $10 where it peaked months ago … up from the 2 1/2 where it stands today! Apparently developing a COVID vaccine sidetracked them from their normal business of curing cancer and HIV. (BTW, they have no revenues!)

Sure … “you’re richer than you think!” Says [email protected] Believe her at your own peril. My bank stocks thank you.

#50 leebow on 03.22.21 at 5:00 pm

#36 S.Bby

Just standing on the shoulders of giants.

#51 IHCTD9 on 03.22.21 at 5:01 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:24 pm
#138 IHTCD9
For now though, imho; you probably couldn’t beat a dude out in the sticks living in a 1000sf self built stone/wood cabin, a well, septic system, with clean modern wood heat, and driving an EV.
————————-
Well, throw in a vegetable garden and some chickens and rabbits, then you’re really cooking.
The hooch still, though, may set you back a bit.
——- –

Hooch is doable at home with some dedication! :D

I have in-laws 2 minutes down the road with about an 1/8 acre garden, and that thing pumps out an incredible amount of food. Lot of work though.

#52 Flop... on 03.22.21 at 5:02 pm

#32 TurnerNation on 03.22.21 at 4:23 pm
“The illusion alright – of Freedom.
Hammer those Former First World Countries.
Australia, UK have locked their citizens inside the country by way of a virtual Berlin Wall.”

///////////////////////////////////

Hey TN, glad you laughed at my identification carrier joke the other day.

Australia seems to have bigger problems than COVID right now, but I just want you to see this video from last Thursday night in formerly hard locked-down Melbourne, Victoria.

50,000 people at the MCG having a great time.

My team got stage fright and choked, was else is new?

One guy in Vancouver cursing TSN for trying to get me to pay to watch the game.

Added bonus video, Bad Hair Rock from the year I graduated high school from a band called Bad English.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6TLxBSd-_g

Tough Times Don’t Last…

M46BC

https://www.afl.com.au/video/564442/highlights-richmond-v-carlton?videoId=564442&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1616067000001

Speaking of Bad English, yuk yuk!

P.S NoName, thanks for the laugh also, did you show your son M. the video I sent you for him?

#53 alexinvestor on 03.22.21 at 5:11 pm

Cost of money swelling ? But there’s so much more of it out there with all that government spending of borrowed money from the CBs. And there’s going to be even more with all that Biden/Trudeau/EU green spending.

#54 dave on 03.22.21 at 5:19 pm

Is there any changes for real estate coming from Federal Govt?

How about provincial government NDP in BC?

#55 Billy on 03.22.21 at 5:19 pm

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.21 at 2:36 pm
We just renewed our 5 year mtg for 1.65%.
The plan is not to pay it down early.
At that low rate, that would not be smart.
Instead, we’ll invest any extra money wisely and diversely.
And, if in 5 years, the rates are high, we just pay the sucker off.
===========

Hopefully you know this but just in case you don’t…

During the early years of the monthly mortgage payments (e.g. the first 5 years) your monthly payments are mostly applied to the interest owed, not paying the debt down.

What that means is that in 5 years time if you decide to pay off the mortgage you will be paying off close to the initial purchase price.

Your payments will not have reduced the value of your debt by all that much.

In other words the payments you make over that first five period will be mostly INTEREST payments, not paying off the debt.

Understanding this is VITALLY important!

Mr Turner perhaps you should explain this…many people mistakenly believe t that if they pay $4K a month for 60 months that they have paid off $4K X 60 payments = $240K of the initial debt and that is just plain incorrect.

That’s not how mortgage amortisation works.

#56 Rainman on 03.22.21 at 5:22 pm

Rates are not going negative and the currency will not be worthless in ten years. – Garth

How can you be so sure that rates can’t go negative? and no our currency won’t be worthless, but with inflation it seems it will be worth a lot less, so why not have an asset?

Extreme statements, like extreme beliefs, usually end in regret. – Garth

Isn’t it just as extreme to say that rates are never going negative? I mean I agree with most of what you say, but just saying.

#57 Linda on 03.22.21 at 5:26 pm

What puzzles me is that despite the ‘average’ Canadian household income being around $60K banks, CU’s, mortgage brokers & likely the mob are saying these folks ‘qualify’ to take on epic debt. Heck, we own a place outright & despite that I wouldn’t want to try buying at these crazy prices. For a species that is supposed to be intelligent, we sure do manage to do dumb really well.

#58 ts on 03.22.21 at 5:34 pm

There is no bubble. It is different this time. Money printing can go on forever, right? Everything is wonderful. People getting rich on their houses, Cerb for everybody. Free daycare, free health care, free prescription drugs, free tuition etc. What’s not to like?

#59 yorkville renter on 03.22.21 at 5:36 pm

I’ll say this again… handing over $500K for the privilege of ‘owning’ a $1mm mortgage makes me sick to my stomach.

Just because we can doesn’t mean we should!

#60 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.22.21 at 5:37 pm

#9 Evanne

The places we build today won’t make it 50 years. They sell homes in Europe made of timbers and stone that will last hundreds if not thousands of years.

#61 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.22.21 at 5:48 pm

Rates are not going negative and the currency will not be worthless in ten years. – Garth

Maybe not worthless, but definitely worth less!

#62 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 5:56 pm

#28 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 4:10 pm
#140 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 1:52 pm
#133 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 11:39 am
#112 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 5:24 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkXBVSFjA6E

Carmen Vandenberg killing it on a beat-up Tele.

——————————————————

About as exiting & genuine recording as Milli Vanilli

——————————–

Oh, sorry.

How many Grammy nominations have you received

————————————-

You must love Adelle on that measure of success!

———————————-

Didn’t check out the other video, did you? The fact is Vandenberg has chops, whether it’s to your taste is besides the point, nor could anyone care less either way.

Your Milli Vanilli reference already dated you enough, if you wish to look even more foolish by misspelling Adele that’s your prerogative I suppose.

#63 Rico on 03.22.21 at 5:59 pm

#44 Stone on 03.22.21 at 4:48 pm
Care to share your mix of investments?
B&D shouldn’t be +8.5% ytd unless you have excess preferreds, excess equity, or something risky (GME, Bitcoin).

#64 Bob Dog on 03.22.21 at 5:59 pm

DELETED

#65 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.22.21 at 6:11 pm

CBs do not control mortgage rates. – Garth

Not yet, but with the inevitable introduction of yield curve control, they will.

I have capitulated and now accept the fact that house prices will continue to rise until the entire system blows up, which I thought would have happened by now… I was going to (and should have) bought back in 2014, but I thought we were surely at the top back then.

I’ve taken on one last lease on a house out in the sticks to ride out the rest of the scamdemic, but the wife and I have decided that we’re buying next spring regardless (within reason) of what the market does.

#66 45north on 03.22.21 at 6:25 pm

So glad I sold

The buying insanity continues for some. A friend’s mom sold a detached for over 2 million dollars. Unfortunately because she used it as an atm over the years and had 3 mortgages on it she was left with only 90 thousand dollars. She has also maxed out 10 credit cards. Lucky for her the house prices had appreciated over the last 2 months or she would have been underwater. The problem now is no cash flow other than gis and old age pension. Family members had no idea what was owing and that the house had gone into foreclosure. There are probably many more instances like this one than people are aware of.

so at the moment when she was at the end her rope, the market hit an all-time high. She was very lucky because it probably took her 10 years to get 3 mortgages, 10 credit cards. There probably are many more instances like this and they are the dark matter of the housing universe.

#67 Madcat on 03.22.21 at 7:00 pm

Pierre Poilievre addressing the cost of housing today:

‘Payments on the average house now take half of the average family’s PRE-tax income.

And that is with record low rates. When they rise, the bubble will .’

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=826175377972620

#68 Freedom First on 03.22.21 at 7:01 pm

To me, it looks like even most of the post covid 1st world countries are heading toward communism/Fascism.

Freedom First

#69 Pete on 03.22.21 at 7:12 pm

I hope you’re not predicting that it’s going to take a 5yr mortgage cycle to normalize RE values and end fomo! Us lower middle class, and the rest of Canada, will be bankrupt by then.

#70 Nonplused on 03.22.21 at 7:15 pm

But again, this is mostly a problem in Toronto, Vancouver, and more recently Ottawa, although Montreal has recently seen some big % gains but is still way cheap compared to Toronto or Vancouver.

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

I’m not sure why Edmonton is so much cheaper than Calgary but I don’t think there is a bubble in either of these cities. The unemployment rate in Alberta plus the foreboding sense of doom surrounding the oil patch seems to be effectively offsetting the historically low rates.

So far there are 21 states that have joined a lawsuit challenging the legitimacy of Biden cancelling the Keystone XL permit on constitutional grounds. I’m not sure it will be successful, the rule of law seems to be a flexible concept these days, and anyway it will probably take so long that Biden will be out of office by the time it is resolved. Trudeau is pretending to build Trans Mountain 2 so hopefully that will help.

But longer term people will have to come to their senses. The world needs oil and natural gas. It is used to make practically everything. Even if we can drastically increase the amount of replaceable (or so called “renewable”) energy, we still need petrochemicals to build the wind turbine blades. And that will be a long term demand because the blades only last about 20 years before they head to the landfill (they cannot at this point be recycled). And we need a lot more wind turbines if they are going to make a meaningful difference.

So oil and natural gas will continue to be produced well into the foreseeable future. We need it to make plastics, rubbers, lubricants, chemicals, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals asphalts, concrete, and to power SpaceX rockets, airplanes, and ships. There are no alternatives on the horizon, even if the ground based transportation and electric industries can be made carbon neutral. You still need petroleum products to make the electric cars and wind turbines. No tires, no electric cars. No resin, no carbon fiber blades.

But this leads to a certain problem that was common before the invention of the Model T. Not all the components of the natgas/oil stack are useful for all things. If you make enough jet fuel to fly all the planes you end up with a lot of gasoline that isn’t really useful for anything if there are no gas cars. Back when oil was chiefly sought after for lubricants and as a replacement for whale oil, they would flare the gasoline. Natural gas, when produced as a byproduct of oil production, was also flared. That is where the phrase “all hell for a basement” came to be to describe the Turner Valley oil fields before they decided to pipe the gas to Calgary and switch everyone from fuel oil to natural gas for heating. Recently, shale oil brought another round of gas flaring in North Dakota and Texas. Extremely wasteful. If you are going to burn it anyway, it may as well heat homes, generate electricity, or fuel cars. At least that way we get some useful purpose from it on the way to global warming.

Today I read a report that the world will need to come up with 23 MMb/d of production after 2030 just to keep up with declines from existing wells.

https://boereport.com/2021/03/22/could-we-see-another-oil-boom/

Well, there are only so many places left in the world where the oil is. Alberta is one of them.

So, long term forecast: Oil will stabilize at $70/bbl, and eventually Alberta will be back as people come to their senses. It may take a few more “Texas” like incidents, but eventually people will realize we can’t really do without it. At least not for the foreseeable future. A world without fertilizer is at this point a world without food.

Anyway, taking this back to housing, yes, it is insane to buy a house in YYZ or YVR right now. But if you have a decent, stable job in Calgary or Edmonton right now it might not be a bad time to lock in these 5 year rates. There are no bidding wars, prices are high but not insane, rates are low, and Alberta will be back as the engine of Canadian economic growth eventually. It will be a while though. At least 2024 I figure.

All real estate is local.

#71 Long-Time Lurker on 03.22.21 at 7:15 pm

>More caveman climate change.

RESEARCH ARTICLE
A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century

Andrew J. Christ, Paul R. Bierman, Joerg M. Schaefer…

PNAS March 30, 2021 118 (13) e2021442118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021442118
Edited by Mark Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved January 27, 2021 (received for review October 23, 2020)

Significance
Understanding Greenland Ice Sheet history is critical for predicting its response to future climate warming and contribution to sea-level rise. We analyzed sediment at the bottom of the Camp Century ice core, collected 120 km from the coast in northwestern Greenland. The sediment, frozen under nearly 1.4 km of ice, contains well-preserved fossil plants and biomolecules sourced from at least two ice-free warm periods in the past few million years. Enriched stable isotopes in pore ice indicate precipitation at lower elevations than present, implying ice-sheet absence. The similarity of cosmogenic isotope ratios in the upper-most sediment to those measured in bedrock near the center of Greenland suggests that the ice sheet melted and re-formed at least once during the past million years….

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/13/e2021442118

#72 westcdn on 03.22.21 at 7:18 pm

Port Hardy. I worked there for a few seasons to earn money over there summers. I was wet and cold but we did have a few fire seasons. Regardless, I got up in the morning and went to work. After being fed and packing our lunches, we then rode the crummy to hell’s land. I liked to work for my father more – he would talk to me much like my uncle Fred but big Jim and his son Alan were also a major mentors. They were all indigenous Métier
and saw that in me too.

They used to land the ferry at Salway. A beautiful place. My father pointed out a diched floating hotel. He said that thing would travel the coast to land at logging camps. Women were hired Vancouverites and treated well and were protected.

#73 Quintilian on 03.22.21 at 7:20 pm

#9 Evanne on 03.22.21 at 2:58 pm:

“Repeating history where this is very common in the 18th and 19th century”

Sure why wouldn’t we go back to feudalism?

#74 Steven Rowlandson on 03.22.21 at 7:45 pm

“The actual truth is, you don’t buy the houses, you buy the leasehold…from the government, who acts as the agent for The Queen and owner of nearly all of Canada’s land.”

If this is the case one should not waste so much as a cent on real estate…. Allodial title or nothing.

#75 John in Mtl on 03.22.21 at 7:47 pm

A piece of ephemeral digital garbage not even worth the bits it is encoded in, sells for 2.9 million! At least the money will go to a worthy cause and the buyer will get a tax break.

Dorsey of Twitter fame has just sold off his “first ever tweet”, which some (insanely and overly rich and bored person) consider as valuable and as rare as a masterful piece of artwork, which it positively is NOT, for the ridiculous amount of 2.9 million $.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-just-sold-his-first-tweet-as-an-nft-for-2-9-million-11616441795?mod=newsviewer_click

#76 conan on 03.22.21 at 8:00 pm

Does the government even let real estate crash without another sector being able to come in take up the economic slack. Whether that be the energy sector, or something else. Governments have to perform , or they get the electoral boot.

#77 Kitty Kaboom on 03.22.21 at 8:03 pm

The monthly is the price of admission….

To the big juicy HELOC borrowing to finance modern life in Canada —- unobtainable by those without government-backed housing collateral.

Inflation then becomes your borrowing capacity growth.

BYOB — Become Your Own Bank, courtesy of CMHC.

Why borrow at 19.9% when you can borrow at 2.9?

Why finance a vehicle with astronomical MSRP at “0%” when a used one on your own credit terms will do?

Borrow at 2.9%, fund that juicy RRSP limit and deduct the interest. Use the tax shifting at 43% marginal to fill your TFSA including those juicy preferred’s :)

Step Right Up. Be Your Own Bank.

Bought last summer pre-construction SFH in the hinterland. $1000 down, price locked in 600K got me $250K in equity at closing/assessment this week and a sweet 1.6/5-er on 200K income.

Never seen wood and drywall work so hard — tax free! (for now).

#78 Cheese on 03.22.21 at 8:07 pm

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it is very much a fan of remixes.

#79 KNOW IT ALL on 03.22.21 at 8:17 pm

One of the main reasons US Household Debt is so much less than Canadian’s is because of the fact that US citizens can leave the keys on the counter and walk away from housing debt untouched.

We all know how the system enslaves Canadians.

But its refreshing to see how the “Great Canadian Housing Market Ponzi Scheme” is beginning to implode on itself.

And its going to take all the key players with it.
I guess we’ll find out who’s been swimming naked shortly.

#80 Stoph on 03.22.21 at 8:19 pm

#55 Billy on 03.22.21 at 5:19 pm

Hopefully you know this but just in case you don’t…

During the early years of the monthly mortgage payments (e.g. the first 5 years) your monthly payments are mostly applied to the interest owed, not paying the debt down.

—————————————————————-

That’s more true when rates are closer to historical norms. When rates are as low as they are, most of the payment is actually applied to the principle. Case in point, at 1.65% amortized over 25 years, just over 80% of the payments go toward the principle.

https://mortgageintelligence.ca/assets/calculators-mi/CAMortgageLoan.html

#81 DON on 03.22.21 at 8:20 pm

Read an article @ Zerohedge where the author reminded his audience that returning to pre COVID days ain’t that great of an idea, given the trajectory we were heading towards back then (peak cycle). That bit of compounding history was seemingly swept away by a wave of COVID, never to be revisited. The wound is still there.

Judging by the state of international news, things out there in the rest of the World ain’t so peachy.

I trust the temporary food inflation will decide to leave in 3 months for fear of being called permanent.

US housing resales lowest in 6 months – last month was the highest?

#82 Faron on 03.22.21 at 8:21 pm

Just as one eyes the drooling nutter muttering to himself with his pants around his ankles on the other side of the street, BillyBob, I read your earlier post to know what I’m dealing with as you seem a touch unhinged upon your return here.

Stay the eff away from my personal and work life. If you can’t handle internet jabs that involve information that you have disclosed without resorting to very thinly veiled IRL threats, you have no business posting here no matter how low the discursive bar is set or how antagonistic.

Lest you think you “scored points” and this is some kind of cry for mercy. It is not. I couldn’t care less if you transcribed my posts here and sent them to whomever. You aren’t even on the mark and if you were, climate scientists are under a constant barrage of nut jobs. Your missive would be buried under a pile of SPAM. If it were read by someone other than me the result would be chuckles. Because I’m an adult working with adults.

I have a strong dislike for you, but even you are better than that crap. If you can’t play nicely in the sandbox without wetting yourself and blaming others, get out.

#83 rknusa on 03.22.21 at 8:27 pm

re: If mortgages renew in five years (as expected) at 3.5% or greater, or property values flatline or drop, then heartache. The result for these two would be 60 months of living costs which were double that of renting, nothing saved towards retirement (five years closer)

you forgot the worst part, their 200K life savings could easily evaporate in even a modest correction and take years to get back

#84 DON on 03.22.21 at 8:29 pm

Ulghurs in the spot light…West demanding China releases those being reconditioned in vocational camps.

Stalin would be proud.

The World is changing yet again…new cold war. A space weapons race. I wonder if Taiwan is a line in the sand?

#85 rknusa on 03.22.21 at 8:41 pm

how would a capital gains tax affect Helocs given the equity would be reduced on potential tax required to be paid

#86 conan on 03.22.21 at 8:43 pm

RE #84 DON on 03.22.21 at 8:29 pm

I think we will look back in 10 years, or less, and totally regret not putting our collective feet down when China introduced their 9 dash line. We should have had a limited engagement right then and there.

#87 rknusa on 03.22.21 at 8:46 pm

#27 Ken R on 03.22.21 at 4:05 pm
In Canada we build houses out of wood, they need constant maintenance; sometimes expensive maintenance. Met a kid today, can’t afford a new water heater.

One thing I noticed in Ontario is a lot of people rent water heaters, end up paying almost three times what a water heater costs, if you can’t afford a water heater you can’t afford your house

another sign of the monthly payment generation

#88 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 8:58 pm

#62 BillyBob on 03.22.21 at 5:56 pm

Your Milli Vanilli reference already dated you enough, if you wish to look even more foolish by misspelling Adele that’s your prerogative I suppose.

—————————————–

No shame in arriving at old alive. Or not knowing how to spell Garth’s least favorite rock band. I was cool at a younger age than you will be, if it even happens…..

I started out listening to Pat Boone on the car radio from the back seat of a ’53 Plymouth in the Appalachians in the mid 50’s, loved surf music, gagged on the Brit invasion, drank my brains out on Allmans before they were on Canadian radio, had my life changed by Pink Floyd in full quad in Buffalo, June ’73, blah blah, then came the Skynyrd PARTY, while you were still wearing pissy pants.

You wouldn’t like my guitar slam, I only do hard honk five string, and cover NOTHING! EVER!

From any two bars, I can name a song, the artist and the album, and that video you posted sounded like Nine Inch Nails on karioke with Leta Ford trying to exude her non-talent. FAIL!

Get a life, and call me back afterwards. Punk.

M67NS liquored

#89 greaterfool on 03.22.21 at 8:59 pm

“In every irrational boom those who got in last – the greater fools – paid a huge price for their desire.”

this is so true. it is a bubble, just when it will burst. they may be just an investment property to some, but for others, they are homes. How long can you wait? We Canadians are only good at buying properties, a stupid game within ourselves. When bubble burst, greaterfools are not exempted, they will suffer the same, or worse, stupid government will print money to rescue!

#90 Wrk.dover on 03.22.21 at 9:06 pm

Liquored because another ‘brother’ down today…..

#91 DON on 03.22.21 at 9:15 pm

#86 conan on 03.22.21 at 8:43 pm
RE #84 DON on 03.22.21 at 8:29 pm

I think we will look back in 10 years, or less, and totally regret not putting our collective feet down when China introduced their 9 dash line. We should have had a limited engagement right then and there.

*********

It is starting to look that way.

More decoupling from China with India on deck to take over trade with the West.??

#92 the Jaguar on 03.22.21 at 9:23 pm

@#70 Nonplused on 03.22.21 at 7:15 pm
‘So, long term forecast: Oil will stabilize at $70/bbl, and eventually Alberta will be back as people come to their senses.’…….+++

Honestly, Nonplused. While you might be on the right track, tread carefully as the subject is highly sensitive. There are some who prefer the vision of an Alberta brought to an apocalyptic demise, the obvious question arising from that being ” How’s that going to work for you when someone else isn’t paying the bills…?”

Never mind. Let’s not hang back with the Brutes. Seeing your interest in such matters as renewable energy, the importance of fossil fuels to the world economy, etc., I bring to your attention a recent podcast by one of the authors of ‘Bright Green Lies”. It’s quite interesting on many levels and entertaining. Here it is for you and any of the usual suspects. WARNING TO ‘SAIL AWAY’. There are one or two comments about your ‘Hero’ that might not sit right with you. Also, to Fishman, some interesting comments about what we are eating from the earth’s oceans and why.

BillyBob posted here today. Vítej zpět. Captain Ross is always on top of his game.

Here is the podcast:

https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/kunstlercast/KunstlerCast_341.mp3

‘Bright Green Lies’: Explosive New Documentary Debuts Exposing the Illusions of Green Technology in Stark Detail. A shocking exposé revealing the disturbing truth of the movement to green technologies.

This new release appears to follow up Michael Moores Documentary ‘Planet of the Humans” which was removed from You Tube.

A recent article talks about that and is kind of interesting:
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/03/04/climate_policy_is_a_money-making_opportunity_for_the_elite_766755.html

the Jag- Jag- Jaguar

#93 Job#1 on 03.22.21 at 9:55 pm

#82 Faron

I thought you promised/threatened to ignore some “…tw*t”. After all your high-falutin’ moral preening, you just can’t let anything go. The feud must continue…

#94 Really ... on 03.22.21 at 9:56 pm

#87 rknusa on 03.22.21 at 8:46 pm
One thing I noticed in Ontario is a lot of people rent water heaters
——————————–
renting water heaters??? Never heard of that out west here … maybe we are just behind the times out here …

#95 Planetgoofy on 03.22.21 at 9:57 pm

#145 KLNR on 03.22.21 at 3:10 pm
—————-
Lol cheers.
If only i had the time. I read Garths stuff fast smash out a comment with shit grammer spelling bla bla
OMG the only problem in this planet is humans.
More the worse and the higher up the more greedy and corrupt.
The CCP is the worst and in 10 years you may awake them owning your ass. Idiots are worried about granet. Others have their fricken fake axes to grind about shit thats irellevent to humanity’s well being let alone tjie3r one family..
BECAUSE THEY CANT SEE THE BIGGER PIC THEY ARE BEING RUN OVER BY THE INFLATION BUS. Garth has the safest plan. Im Not blowing smoke.
I time stuff on my own cause ive won and lost…now in the 2%.. Means shit to me…thants weath or importannce..notariety
I help everyone around me….because i can now.
Its called love. Dont tell my wife

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.21 at 10:06 pm

@#82 DON
” I wonder if Taiwan is a line in the sand?

+++++

You are kidding right?
Taiwan.
China’s “Loss of Face” for the last 70 years….

A pro Western democracy 60 miles from China’s shore.
Taiwan, the democratic Pimple on the Communist rump.

The next 2-5 years will determine if we see a “proxy” WWIII with the possible danger a “small” war will rapidly escalate..
All to “Save Face”.
And if the news media thinks anti asian attacks are bad now?
Aiiii Yaaaa

#97 Fiat $$s on 03.22.21 at 10:07 pm

Sold RE end of 2015, paying off all debts (3/4 in mortgages), and got busy investing – some would say, agressively. Cleared the slate so to speak, with $375k NW. Granted, not a lot of $$ to work with (made some very costly mistakes 2004-2013 that set us back a bunch), but nice feeling to have NO debt!

Fast forward to 2021… and still not owning RE, but have increased NW over 3.5x .
I don’t know how many times I’ve said these words to people who believe that investing = gambling

–>: “I’d rather have a $1M portfolio (adequately diversified) than in a single (illiquid) asset made of 2×4’s. Still they don’t get it. Oh well!

#98 Faron on 03.22.21 at 10:12 pm

#93 Job#1 on 03.22.21 at 9:55 pm

Read my post. Slinging words is one thing, but you start even beginning to poke around someone’s livelihood and that’s a step too far. Reaching for a gun in a fist fight is a sign of weakness, not prowess.

#99 Tri state pat on 03.22.21 at 10:19 pm

Went shopping for a truck to replace my 12 year old Camry. Need a truck to haul toys. Looked at the prices….yeesh…
Tried negotiating it being a cash sale. Didn’t matter.The 0% financing offered was better than my check. Apparently savers can’t win!
So I bought a trailer for the Camry instead. Oh well…

#100 Doug in London on 03.22.21 at 10:31 pm

You would think with all this buying frenzy and record high prices more people would be selling their houses to cash in on a once in a lifetime lottery winning. The markets are so crazy lately that many buyers submit an offer with no inspection and no conditions. If you have an older house that is in bad need of expensive repairs or is in a bad location like a flood plain, the time to sell is RIGHT NOW.

#101 Garth's Son Drake on 03.22.21 at 10:32 pm

Bang on!

Price to rate inversion. Shows you who runs the game. The only question is: what is the rate going to be?

That is the bet. It is pretty obvious what the Fed wants. Let’s see if they can contain it like they have since 2009.

Trillion of printing here, a trillion there. All good.

#102 gfd on 03.22.21 at 10:37 pm

#23 Alberta Ed on 03.22.21 at 3:54 pm
Rates will go up, and on top of that, Sock Boy and his bud Christy Freespender will slap capital gains tax on housing — after the election, of course.
===========================
I am afraid, they will re-introduce 40-year mortgages to counter the rate increase to save the real estate. I simply cannot imagine the carnage otherwise.

#103 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 11:52 pm

#93 Job#1 on 03.22.21 at 9:55 pm
#82 Faron

I thought you promised/threatened to ignore some “…tw*t”. After all your high-falutin’ moral preening, you just can’t let anything go. The feud must continue…

———-

I agree with Faron. There’s a code. Doxxing is dishonourable.

#104 NSNG on 03.22.21 at 11:59 pm

We probably need to keep an eye on the business exodus rate. As a business owner, would you prefer to run your company on an employee base that needs to pay $5000 per month just to keep a home or an employee base that has a median mortgage of $300K?

At some point, the numbers will motivate all but the most patriotic company owner.

#105 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 11:59 pm

#92 the Jaguar on 03.22.21 at 9:23 pm

WARNING TO ‘SAIL AWAY’. There are one or two comments about your ‘Hero’ that might not sit right with you.

———-

Thanks Jag! But don’t worry- El Jefe understands all. He knows exactly where the inconsistencies are and is executing flawlessly.

#106 Genbizx on 03.23.21 at 12:19 am

Nobody can or wants to investigate the fraud angle to all this. What if I had money to wash? …Let’s see, mortgage guy + real estate guy + muddy money guy = all get paid. Now if we increase our scale and ensure we overpay multiple times we could move an entire regional market. We aren’t worried about a crash because… well, we could never make this much so squeeky so fast…
We are laughed at in certain quarters. The word is out. The Canada I knew would never let all this filth seep in.

#107 Annek on 03.23.21 at 12:27 am

Evanne on 03.22.21 at 2:58 pm
Let be realistic, housing prices will not come down.

They may correct a bit, but it wont go down to pre-covid days.

The trend will be following towards Europe style where it will take 2 generations to pay off the house.

And yes, that means 200 years from now, the haves and haves-not will be based on housing assets. (Inequality is no longer based on income but assets)

Repeating history where this is very common in the 18th and 19th century.
———
European houses last hundreds of years. They are well built. And not the cheap wood frame builds that Canadian houses are made of. You would be lucky to get 100 years here. So one cannot compare. Plus, Europe has limited land mass. Not so in Canada.

#108 Midnights on 03.23.21 at 12:46 am

I became the highest-paid adviser in the world at $2,000 an hour they set the fee – not me. The journalist Joseph Perkins, called me back to say after talking to my clients around the world, he said that they commented that if I charged $10,000 they would pay it. Because I was involved in foreign exchange and there were few people around back then, I became international because of the FX markets. The Wall Street Journal wrote about it back in 1983 but focused only on what I made rather than what I did.
Martin Armstrong
You might dislike him, probably jealousy? But he knows his $hit. Have you made more? Even in today money. Haters are going to hate?

#109 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 4:44 am

#93 Job#1 on 03.22.21 at 9:55 pm
#82 Faron

I thought you promised/threatened to ignore some “…tw*t”. After all your high-falutin’ moral preening, you just can’t let anything go. The feud must continue…

==========================

There is no “feud”, not from my side. I have no dislike of “Faron”, the internet persona, nor the real-life person that I inadvertently learned that persona matches. Getting worked up over strangers on the internet is a waste of precious time.

He just happens to perfectly typify certain mentalities I find amusingly easy to lampoon. A minor Portlandia character come to life, transplanted to Portland-lite on VI. Not my fault the setup is ripe for satire!

So I muse, and he fumes. But I bear no malice, only observations.

#110 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 5:42 am

88 Wrk.dover

From any two bars, I can name a song, the artist and the album, and that video you posted sounded like Nine Inch Nails on karioke with Leta Ford trying to exude her non-talent. FAIL!

Get a life, and call me back afterwards. Punk.

M67NS liquored

=================

ok now THAT was pure rock and roll lol. Nice one! God I love the Maritimes, miss their drunken natives. So many good memories. I’d buy you a drink for that rant if I could. Sorry for your loss you mentioned.

And apologies if my comment seemed ageist, it was only meant to explain that no one younger than about 40 would even know what a “Milli Vanilli” is so the insult is wasted. Kinda like it’s clear from your tirade you’re a bit mistaken as to my own vintage, but I’m flattered.

Too bad you didn’t check out Vandenberg’s blues offerings, might be more to your taste. I don’t think she’s released anything on 8-track lately though. ;-)

I agree music awards don’t always equate to talent, but being nominated for a Grammy and invited to tour with Jeff Beck would seem to suggest she’s not nobody, while you are, well…M67NS. It is what it is.

No time to be bitter. Be happy there are still kids picking up Fenders.

#111 Charleen Lafountaine on 03.23.21 at 8:00 am

DELETED

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.21 at 8:14 am

@#107 Annek
“They are well built. And not the cheap wood frame builds that Canadian houses are made of. You would be lucky to get 100 years here. So one cannot compare. ”

+++

My Grandparents Canadian house was built out in the 1870’s out of wood, stone foundation, dirt floor in the basement. Electricity installed in the 1940’s, indoor bathroom didnt happen until the early 1960’s. The telephone was a “party line” until the early 1970’s.
But I digress.
House is wood, almost 150 years old and has survived countless hurricanes, winters, etc.
Just dont forget to stock up on firewood.

#113 millmech on 03.23.21 at 8:19 am

https://604now.com/vancouver-house-sold-above-asking-600k-march-2021/

#114 Refusenik on 03.23.21 at 9:07 am

If I had one word to describe the market right now it would be euphoric greed mixed with sheer panic. We have home buyers panicking that they are being priced out of the market forever, and we have speculators going wild, way over paying planning to rent out or flip. There is a legitimate demand however, a lot of people are renting and need a house as landlords are dumping their houses/rentals for a tidy profit.

Klaus Schwab warns the next crisis will be a cyber pandemic. He’s creepy, but definitely in the know. Joe Biden just announced he is going to launch massive cyber attacks against Russia. This could go tit-for-tat. I’m not saying it will happen, far from that, but if it did it could freak out the market and vault interest rates up. Who knows what the next crisis will be.

#115 Millenials on 03.23.21 at 9:11 am

Those arguing supply and demand as the main driver for housing market might be right after all but one thing they never talk about is demand is not necessarily initiated by logical reasons (more space, work, etc.), a friend of mine (couple) were looking into selling their investment townhouse purchased in 2017 (with a big mortgage), at the peak of mini bubble for 860, they put it on market 2 weeks ago at 900k hoping for a bidding war, no bidding war, they got no offer, then something interesting happened. Their real estate suggested they hold on to townhouse for now, and sell the semi they live as primary residence (1.2-3 million value) and upgrade their house (over 2 million). Real estate told them there is no bidding war in +2 million range! Now all the sudden, from selling their investment in a prime time for selling, they are putting more into their baskets, a bigger mortgage and an investment property which was bought very expensive. So those talking about demand and supply, not all demand are real, and one day these people will pay a hefty price for it!

#116 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 9:37 am

Faron, Sail Away, BillyBob et al.

Ok, didn’t realize there was so much at stake, lines drawn, an aggressor and victim. My apologies for the intrusion. I thought it was just on-line banter.

Perhaps there’s a lesson here. Reveal too much about yourself and you become vulnerable. Amazing how so many are so careless about privacy, security and their cyber personae. I think Flop has a story on that topic.

#117 Dharma Bum on 03.23.21 at 10:01 am

“What is different between Canada and the US?”

~ Garth
————————————————————————–

Canadian brats haven’t been spanked yet.

American imps were spanked 10 years ago.

Discipline go a long way toward behaviour modification.

#118 DON on 03.23.21 at 10:15 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.21 at 10:06 pm
@#82 DON
” I wonder if Taiwan is a line in the sand?

+++++

You are kidding right?
Taiwan.
China’s “Loss of Face” for the last 70 years….

A pro Western democracy 60 miles from China’s shore.
Taiwan, the democratic Pimple on the Communist rump.

The next 2-5 years will determine if we see a “proxy” WWIII with the possible danger a “small” war will rapidly escalate..
All to “Save Face”.
And if the news media thinks anti asian attacks are bad now?
Aiiii Yaaaa
************

Kidding….YES.

#119 Stone on 03.23.21 at 10:24 am

#63 Rico on 03.22.21 at 5:59 pm
#44 Stone on 03.22.21 at 4:48 pm
Care to share your mix of investments?
B&D shouldn’t be +8.5% ytd unless you have excess preferreds, excess equity, or something risky (GME, Bitcoin).

———

Is 25% prefs as a part of a 65/35 portfolio excessive when interest rates are still very close to bottom? I only do ETFs. Definitely no GME or Bitcoin nor any type of ETF that would correlate to them. That’s above my risk threshold.

Just because a VAB, VGRO, XBAL, XGRO, ZBAL, ZGRO doesn’t provide that kind of return doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. They are good to learn from but then you need to think through where the markets and the economy just went through and where they are now going and act accordingly.

#120 Zen Investor on 03.23.21 at 10:39 am

https://www.thetelegram.com/business/perspectives-on-business/cp-rails-purchase-of-us-rival-is-a-bet-on-production-moving-out-of-china-in-covid-19-aftermath-566869/

Huge news for North American independence , huge blow to Trudeau.

#121 Sail Away on 03.23.21 at 10:46 am

#116 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 9:37 am

Faron, Sail Away, BillyBob et al.

Ok, didn’t realize there was so much at stake, lines drawn, an aggressor and victim. My apologies for the intrusion. I thought it was just on-line banter.

Perhaps there’s a lesson here. Reveal too much about yourself and you become vulnerable.

————

Well, invert the situation. If someone brings up your position, supervisor and not-so-subtly insinuates they may pass along online interactions, those are intimidation tactics that have no place in debate or argument. Sort of like getting in a fight with somebody and threatening their wife and kids.

Sure, be careful, but anyone’s identity can be discovered.

#122 Immigrant man on 03.23.21 at 11:34 am

renting water heaters??? Never heard of that out west here … maybe we are just behind the times out here …

—–
Not just them, furnaces and a/c units too! Works out to be double or even triple the “buy price” over the life of the unit. And I imagine the business of water heater and furnace rentals is only going to pick up. If you are maxing out your savings/mortgage just to get in into the RE you’ve got nothing left over for maintenance which is a big part of owning a house.

Hey, maybe somebody will come up with a business of renting shingles? Reshingling a roof is at least a couple of thousand dollars or “you can have it for a low monthly payment of 69.99$!”

#123 R on 03.23.21 at 11:55 am

#118 DON
China needs Taiwan because they have the best semiconductor manufacturers. With these, China can fulfill it’s goal of world dominance in electronics and at the same time, harm the Western world military capabilities ( Think how many semiconductors are in military weapons , where everything is electronic). Combine a semiconductor dominance with their already rare earth dominance, things could get awkward quickly for the “West”. The US dominated the oil century era, and China wants to dominate the electronics era.

#124 Flop... on 03.23.21 at 12:02 pm

#116 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 9:37 am
“Perhaps there’s a lesson here. Reveal too much about yourself and you become vulnerable. Amazing how so many are so careless about privacy, security and their cyber personae. I think Flop has a story on that topic.”

////////////////////////

A lot of water under the bridge since then, probably 4 years worth of water, my only interest in rehashing any of this is because I think some of the modern day combatants weren’t on the blog then.

Someone didn’t like what I was writing about on here, they chipped away at me for a while and then one day thought that it was a good idea to encourage criminals and the like to pay my wife a visit at work.

They thought it would be a checkmate move, it was, because my wife works with hundreds of kids and it was a risk I was not willing to take, I de-escalated the situation as quickly as I properly could, took a break from posting on here, shut down my spin-off blog immediately.

As time has gone on Vancouver real estate has evolved up and down, never going totally into the abyss, so that person probably got worked up about nothing as it turned out.

I don’t think that person was ever going to do anything, more just looking to encourage someone unhinged losing equity each month to cross an invisible line.

It’s amazing how people state that you have to watch your privacy and yet nothing about how basic respect of people’s families and livelihoods by the people making the threats.

Here’s something I’ve never disclosed on here, my wife was terrified for a couple of days, I showed her the messages and told her to be aware of her surroundings, after she had time to digest what had happened, she actually lobbied me to start my blog back up about 4 days later, and return to this blog.

I had always said when people disagreed with me and tried to make it personal, whatever, but leave my wife out of it, after this incident my desire to continue my blog vanished immediately and a line had been crossed.

I’m sure Garth has had it all, my threshold was lower, I was back at work burning the candle at both ends, and am only in this city to support my wife.

Things have changed a lot since then, information that used to take 5/6 months is now available within 24 hours.

People used to say that informed buyers would help the market correction, the evidence says real estate is still emotional that makes people do crazy things, some information is available that never used to be but when people really want something they go for it regardless.

There are regular posters on here in Vancouver that I could probably find in a day or two if my life depended on it.

You want them to write as freely as possible and swap the best information they have on any subject, whether you disagree with them or not.

Try to maintain some sort of self control when you post.

Let them live their lives, leave their families and workplaces alone…
M46BC

#125 Faron on 03.23.21 at 12:19 pm

#103 Sail Away on 03.22.21 at 11:52 pm

#93 Job#1 on 03.22.21 at 9:55 pm
#82 Faron

Thanks. Yeah, I regret not piping up when Sara was dragging SA’s ID recently.

Job #1: It is online banter. BB raised the prospect of attempting to make it other.

#126 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 12:20 pm

#116 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 9:37 am
Faron, Sail Away, BillyBob et al.

Ok, didn’t realize there was so much at stake, lines drawn, an aggressor and victim. My apologies for the intrusion. I thought it was just on-line banter.

Perhaps there’s a lesson here. Reveal too much about yourself and you become vulnerable. Amazing how so many are so careless about privacy, security and their cyber personae. I think Flop has a story on that topic.

———————————

Just banter to me. As it happens my past overlaps with his present, nothing sinister. The grandiosity that would lead some internet rando to believe I would give enough of a sh!t to “poke around his livelihood” is beyond laughable. There was no effort made to unearth anything. Glorified bus drivers are just detail-oriented by nature.

And there’s nothing “at stake”. I don’t “doxx”. That’s a cowardly lefty Millennial thing, like cancel culture.

#127 Faron on 03.23.21 at 12:40 pm

#109 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 4:44 am

I inadvertently learned

That’s an utter lie. You were barking up trees out of some obsession with me. You were barking up the wrong tree, so you gained nothing there yet have claimed to have “learned” about my character. And if you have secretly barked up the correct tree (or trees) that implies that you are snooping and obsessing WAY too much and, again with your statement, are trying to hold it over my head.

As before, your attempts to bully me come in parallel with badgering someone who’s expertise exceeds yours in an area you care about (Wrk.dover) and when it is clear that you are a hack badgering someone who may well be a pro, you proceed to suck his eggplant.

You have zero clue who or what I am. The venn diagram between your perception and the reality is a bare sliver. Your ego is massive and damaged. Get over yourself and look elsewhere for your jollies.

#128 Sail Away on 03.23.21 at 1:06 pm

#124 Flop… on 03.23.21 at 12:02 pm

Someone didn’t like what I was writing about on here, they chipped away at me for a while and then one day thought that it was a good idea to encourage criminals and the like to pay my wife a visit at work.

———-

Cowards. Time for RCMP or a chat with Gooch and his boys with a hunnaband…

#129 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 1:09 pm

#121 Sail Away on 03.23.21 at 10:46 am

Well, invert the situation. If someone brings up your position, supervisor and not-so-subtly insinuates they may pass along online interactions, those are intimidation tactics that have no place in debate or argument. Sort of like getting in a fight with somebody and threatening their wife and kids.

——————————-

I brought up the position to explain how the connection was made. It’s actually quite amazing – what are the odds? Save your wives and children rhetoric, this isn’t a John Wick movie.

No insinuation of anything either. I do or I don’t do, and I’ll tell you straight up. My comment was straightforward: what would our colleagues think of what we post under pseudonyms?

I couldn’t care less who Faron is or you are. And privacy and freedom of speech are tricky topics. But if knowing the internet isn’t quite as anonymous as we think makes us more circumspect in how we interact with each other, it probably isn’t the worst thing in the world.

#130 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 1:21 pm

Why is it that the whirlwinds of controversy so often revolve around Faron in the eye of the storm?

I appreciate the informative blog posts by Garth & colleagues, and enjoy the mostly on-topic comments, but find the psycho-drama distractions annoying.
Like many here have advised, I should just make better use of the scroll wheel, and resist the urge to criticize the source(s) of these distractions. Mea culpa.

#131 leebow on 03.23.21 at 1:39 pm

You guys are all crazy.

May be time for Dr. Garth to prescribe some easy chill.

#132 Don Guillermo on 03.23.21 at 1:43 pm

#130 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 1:21 pm
Why is it that the whirlwinds of controversy so often revolve around Faron in the eye of the storm?

I appreciate the informative blog posts by Garth & colleagues, and enjoy the mostly on-topic comments, but find the psycho-drama distractions annoying.
Like many here have advised, I should just make better use of the scroll wheel, and resist the urge to criticize the source(s) of these distractions. Mea culpa
*************************************
Garth is a bit like an NHL referee. Mostly tries to keep things under control but sometimes just lets the gloves come off.

#133 Faron on 03.23.21 at 1:52 pm

#130 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 1:21 pm

Q: Why is it that the whirlwinds of controversy so often revolve around Faron

A: Because I’m a lib in a herd of righties. And I argue with conviction, bombast and am occasionally overly cutting.

But, noted.

On topic:

For the sake of humility I ask that you please refer to my market predictions last week. Aside from Oil, everything has done the inverse. You are welcome for the service. Hah.

#134 Planetgoofy on 03.23.21 at 1:57 pm

At 40…and $200,000. Theres no hope unfortunatly you needed to start buying at 20.
Barring a deppresion an don’t wish for that..houseing will only correct marginally. If there was a crash I just buy a few more.
Houses aren’t Nortel. I installed their cell stuff back in the day. They destroyed themselve because the head dudes got fat and lazy and failed to inovate. The CCP took over with Huawei. Nortels base station was $350,000 in 2000. Huawei’s is $30,000.
Its ok because this country is mostly controlled and owned by CCP.
Socks is the front runner on that gig.
God help us.

#135 Faron on 03.23.21 at 1:59 pm

#129 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 1:09 pm

what are the odds

The odds that someone in Victoria may know someone else in Victoria who knows someone from Victoria? Hmmm. The amount of backpedalling you are doing is incriminating. Just stop.

#136 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 2:18 pm

#130 Job#1 on 03.23.21 at 1:21 pm
Why is it that the whirlwinds of controversy so often revolve around Faron in the eye of the storm?

I appreciate the informative blog posts by Garth & colleagues, and enjoy the mostly on-topic comments, but find the psycho-drama distractions annoying.

——————————-

Yep, your points are eminently reasonable. The main reason I took leave of the comments for an extended period of time was I was letting myself get dragged into stupid exchanges with the guy. Like a rabid chihuahua, he – as noted – just never STFU. Ever. Didn’t make sense to voluntarily subject oneself to that noise endlessly.

Yet here we are again. Pyscho-drama to the point of weird homophobic slurs. (From that comment it becomes quite clear why it’s hard for him to admit losing an argument given what he apparently equates it with lol.)

So, my apologies to other readers for the flurry of off-topic posts.

I’ll leave ya to your worldview, Faron. It seems like a pretty angry one, and that’s just not my thing. And really, who can rebut any argument referencing a venn diagram?

This is your safe space again. Spew your venom as you see fit. I will revert to silently reading your lectures of how SailAway has a callous disregard for life and what have you.

All of this nonsense pales in comparison to the fact that the Jaguar has been seen again in the wild. Moc děkuji a jsem rád, že vás vidím!

#137 Sail Away on 03.23.21 at 3:52 pm

#129 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 1:09 pm

I brought up the position to explain how the connection was made. It’s actually quite amazing – what are the odds? Save your wives and children rhetoric, this isn’t a John Wick movie.

———

Understood. It’s not necessarily what you yourself would or wouldn’t do, though. Somebody else might decide to follow the roadmap and pull something similar to Flop’s experience. Best to stay away.

#138 KAC on 03.23.21 at 4:39 pm

#42 Jake

But have we ever had, for example, over any 30 year period where houses did not go up?
—————————————-

Yes Jake, we have. How does it sound to have to wait a hundred years to break even on your investment?

So many people forget the corrosive effect of inflation on the value of money. The following chart should be required reading for anybody getting into the property market, especially after the past decade or so of insane price increases.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif

#139 DON on 03.23.21 at 8:21 pm

Before we go slashing and cutting let us first address the root causes, root out corruption in all sectors, stop allowing extreme leverage and speculation. Slowly rein in the problems and bring a pragmatic and tranparent approach to resolve all problems….problem is, human nature repeats.

Recall legislation on all levels of government just in case the odd one (lol) gets too out of control. More incentives for small and medium businesses…spread out the Public contracts.

Basically make it better for those who come next.

#140 DON on 03.23.21 at 8:39 pm

#135 Faron on 03.23.21 at 1:59 pm
#129 BillyBob on 03.23.21 at 1:09 pm

what are the odds

The odds that someone in Victoria may know someone else in Victoria who knows someone from Victoria? Hmmm. The amount of backpedalling you are doing is incriminating. Just stop.

********

It takes two to tangle. You took the risk of exposing yourself. I don’t condone any bullying or verbal attacks. In some cases it is best to move on and attack the argument and not the person. I just reread that and I sound like my father. You are a fire cracker my friend and I like your spirit. Act don’t react.

#141 Wrk.dover on 03.23.21 at 10:29 pm

Another thing, sales tax increase? The most effective way to glean money from my ilk! Again, Hell Yeah!

What was Harper thinking when he lowered my requisite contribution to society anyhow?
good night.

#142 JLMackieBoy on 03.24.21 at 12:15 am

“European houses last hundreds of years. They are well built. And not the cheap wood frame builds that Canadian houses are made of. You would be lucky to get 100 years here. So one cannot compare. Plus, Europe has limited land mass. Not so in Canada.”

1. The price of the building is not the reason for the price.
2. Canada actually has less land mass where anyone is allowed to, or would wish to, live. We’re a chain of a few key cities along a highway.

The current state of affairs seemed impossible to me in the past, since I don’t understand how people’s incomes can be squared with the cost. But it has continued for decades now. I never even looked at European house prices, which seem to confirm that it can continue forever, until houses are tens of millions of currency units.

I don’t understand it. But it seems to be true, and I have basically given up at this point. It seems like people mortgaging themselves to the hilt are making a wise decision, even if they aren’t themselves wise.

#143 Andrew Hutton on 03.24.21 at 11:24 am

Why are we not taxing more all gambling, lottery and other gaming transactions. Tax a 10% rate on all of it.

We should also be taxing all technological devices. A 10% tax rate on all smartphones, tablets, computers etc.

#144 Jack Manna on 03.24.21 at 11:51 am

Get rid of the RRSP annual contribution deduction, annual pension contributions deductionand make everyone de-register their RRSP, pension plan and give them up to 5 years to pay the full taxes without penalty, interest.

This would create a huge tax influx of at least $700 billion to $1 trillion dollars.

#145 john Doe on 03.25.21 at 2:09 pm

OK Jack Manna… I’ll see your rant and raise you..

– Get rid of TFSA’s. All earned interest is taxed.
– Tax all Real Estate transactions @ 13% (HST).
– Eliminate ALL Capital Gains Exemptions.
– Double the taxes on beer, liquor, weed and cigarettes.
– Charge $1 for each non-recyclable package sold.
– Charge $1 for each non-recyclable drink cup sold.
– Allow taxpayers to expense eat-in or take-out food.
– Pick up every cigarette butt and bill manufacturers.

Could care less what it brings in, or if it bankrupts the Canadian economy or a business. Be like Nike…

JUST DO IT!!!

#146 John Doe on 03.25.21 at 2:17 pm

Oh I forgot…

– Tax all “gambling” winnings at 50%.
– Tax all “lottery” winnings at 25%.
– Property taxes double for any non-principal resident.

Because the BoC’s ability to print money is endless, my list is likewise endless.