The bonfire

Sometimes it makes sense to step away. Would that be now?

In the last two weeks this blog has detailed some of the excesses of our pandemic world. In fact, most of the irrational behaviour flows directly from the virus. Governments and politicians have gone extreme. Shut-in, restricted, locked-down and quarantined citizens have made wild choices. Fear of sickness, isolation from work colleagues, job loss, media hysteria and a sense the world has changed irrevocably in 12 months are having an impact on everyone.

The results? They’re everywhere.

Pandemic loneliness created a puppy boom. Lockdown boredom helped fuel Reddit stock boards, Hoodies, GameStop, covered calls and rank speculation. Tesla shares are at 900 times earnings. Bitcoin exploded, even when it’s backed by nothing and will inevitably blow up. A Beeple digital artwork just sold for $70 million. NFTs and sports cards are soaring in value. Building materials and lumber are up incomprehensively. And recently almost every house that sold in mid-town Toronto went for $2 million or more.

None of this is normal. It all traces back to the pandemic.

We’ve focused a lot recently on real estate. No wonder. It’s the aphrodisiac of the masses. The most popular Canadian asset. Life’s very raison d’être for the entire moister generation. And lately it’s been gamified just like stocks. What started a few months ago as a shelter from the viral storm has turned into a financial play. Using big leverage and shouldering large risk, buyers tell each other prices will never fall and rates never rise.

The results are terrifying, in these two ways.

First, of all the properties sold in the GTA (the nation’s largest market) last month, almost 80% changed hands above asking – for more money than the sellers had demanded. This is historic. An unprecedented jump from the 25%-over-ask level of a few months ago. It drove the average price for all properties over $1 million in the last few weeks, and fueled a 46% sales jump. Condo deals, by the way, erupted 52%.

Here’s what the surge looked like, thanks to realtor John Pasalis (who hates me):

And what happens when eight in ten houses sell for more than vendors requested? Usually with multiple bids in blind auctions? Yup – asking prices rise. The odds are that March, and then April, will see the largest ever year/year inflation with household debt levels increasing apace.

But – terrifying fact # 2 – this is not contained to the idiots who live in the metropolis. It’s everywhere.

Rising prices, accumulating debt and crashing affordability are the daily realities in London, Kamloops, Halifax, Kingston, Victoria and all of the little Hopes, Owen Sounds, Guelphs and Airdries in between. Convinced WFH will last forever, that ‘the government’ will not allow mortgage rates to rise and it’s a smart thing to chunk all of your net worth into a single asset on one street in one town, legions of Canadians are stocking this bonfire of the viral vanities.

As behaviour finance teaches us, the more that abnormal things look normal, the more everyone believes they’ll stay so. And they pile on. New mortgage debt is running at $10 billion. A month.

As it is with houses, so with tech stocks, baseball cards, crypto or some dude’s blockchain JPEG file.

What next?

More of the same. It’s not over. It won’t be until herd immunity is achieved this autumn and the economy achieves near-normality. Then a lot will change.

Growth, inflation, wages and interest rates will all increase. Government and CB stimulus programs will be scaled back. In fact the Bank of Canada is likely to start next month. Mortgages won’t be 1.5%. Or even two per cent. Large numbers of people who thought they’d never return to the workplace will be called back. Cautiously and sporadically at first. Then largely as before. This experiment is over. For many companies, it failed.

The virus caused our current delusion. When it goes, expect revolution.

155 comments ↓

#1 Cheese on 03.14.21 at 1:14 pm

I feel fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-5oGnvfUEU

#2 Flop... on 03.14.21 at 1:14 pm

Expecting some extra crankiness on here today because of the whole daylight savings thing.

Let’s get this thing started.

Checked out this article this morning on top countries to retire in.

Besides looking at the pictures, and trying to imagine living there, it was the low barrier of entry to some of the countries that caught my eye

One, I believe it was Bolivia, wanted proof of income of only 400 Usd a month.

The two brief descriptions I decided to include were Panama and Portugal

Australia, not on the list, probably because there’s too many hoons…

M46BC

“Panama has previously topped the International Living index for a number of years and remains an outstanding retirement destination. In addition to the Central American country’s low cost of living, fabulous climate, beaches, amenities and healthcare, Panama provides seniors with unparalleled benefits and discounts such as 25% off utility bills and half-price movie and show tickets. Expats need only be in possession of a Pensionado visa, which is available to anyone with a monthly income of $1,000 (£735) or more, to reside there.”

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/other/top-countries-to-retire-in-revealed/ss-BB1eu8Lj?li=AAgh0dA#image=25

“Falling down the rankings this year, Portugal is still the premier destination in Europe for expat retirees and tops the 2021 index for housing – accommodation in the country is affordable and of a high standard – and climate. Non-EU citizens can obtain residency on the proviso they show evidence of a regular income and valid health insurance.”

#3 Dan Fielding on 03.14.21 at 1:15 pm

The world seems completely crazy.

Data supports little of what we’re seeing.

Emotion is everywhere and the only explanation.

Things just don’t add up.

My solution? Make some love.

#4 Steven Rowlandson on 03.14.21 at 1:19 pm

Garth you are seeing John B Calhoun’s Mouse Utopia Experiment being run before your very eyes and this time the mice are humans and the walls of the universe is real estate prices. The end result of these experiments is death.
https://youtu.be/OkSixfBFzVY

#5 P on 03.14.21 at 1:24 pm

If you want to buy. Call the listing agent. Ask them if they will double end the deal. Agent would need to sell the property at double the asking price to make the same commission. He/she will be working for both seller and buyers interests. Ask for 2 viewings and a home inspection. We bought our cottage this way during the pandemic at under ask. Bidding wars, without home inspections/due diligence are a terrible way to purchase something this large. Agents underprice to get eyeballs and Show they’ve sold over ask. When double ending they will work hard to find a price that works for both and make a fat 5% commission.

#6 Leftover on 03.14.21 at 1:30 pm

This in the Globe:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-great-generational-wealth-transfer-is-under-way/

A short ditty about how boomers are funding millennial house lust by topping up down payments. Largely true.

But the great generational wealth transfer, as it’s described in the article, is actually going in the opposite direction. Who do you think is selling those $2 million beaters? Boomers.

The quandary comes in 2022 or, really, in 2026 when those 5-year mortgages reset. If I was a boomer cashing in I would find a safe off-shore haven to store the loot because the cries for blood will be deafening.

#7 Apocalypse NOW on 03.14.21 at 1:31 pm

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

Worse than a billion bonfires, on its way.

PREPARE

#8 Tripp on 03.14.21 at 1:38 pm

During the pandemic, my B&D portfolio showed some healthy growth. Nothing close to the spectacular results from specific stocks, digital currencies or the RE in my area, but also with lower risk, no stress, emotional breakdowns and perennial deal hunting.

Since the “everything bubble” and the wages are clearly disconnected, where is this going? Drastic decrease in the living standards, or the “everything burst”?

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 1:39 pm

I’ll just keep renting and investing thanks.

Over to you Ponzie.

#10 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 1:41 pm

Good picture! Swap out two of the doodles for a Springer and Munsterlander and that’s us.

Note the e-collar on the Chessie.

#11 Bryan S on 03.14.21 at 1:44 pm

Why don’t you do a Blog about the actual impact WFH is having on companies? You speak a lot about the damage and how there is going to be a recall of the masses to return. I get that there is not much incentive to be productive when you don’t have a supervisor checking to make sure there’s no drool on the couch pillows… are there statistics that hold this out? I’m completely on your side in this BTW and thanks for keeping me grounded all these years.

#12 Doug in London on 03.14.21 at 1:54 pm

Yes, this COVID has had some interesting effects on me, too. A year ago this month I had myself fired out of a cannon so I could DIVE IN HEAD FIRST to scoop up some DIRT CHEAP equities. Other than that, reminiscing about travels this time of year in the past. Maybe the capital gains I’ve made on those equities I scooped up last year will pay for future travels.

#13 TurnerNation on 03.14.21 at 1:56 pm

Oh no this ain’t going away. 2022-23 minimum.
Always children. Drag them out of the class rooms. Disrupt, frighten and train them in compliance.
Those #s will be used of course to shut down the schools and get it all online. More chaos of course.

“Alberta announces COVID-19 rapid testing pilot project in Calgary schools”

………

– Why were our large cities emptied out of office commuters and tourists?
Downtown Toronto hotels, Novatel and The Strathcona, now are permanently converted into HOMELESS housing. Get lost Tourists. We do not need your money apparently.
– What to do with the rows of empty, blacked-out retail stores you see on Queen, Dundas and College Streets, all ordered closed by law?

ANSWER: Build more Kandos and Force more of the population into these “Smart Cities”.
Sustainable, Equality of course means UBI + Micro Condos for most; the suckers still working for a living will be hit with triple carbon tax, avec HST natch.

(9 more years of this to go BTW.
https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/programs/agenda-2030.html
“The 2030 Agenda presents Canada, and the world, with a historic opportunity to positively shape how societies of tomorrow grow and develop sustainably and inclusively to the shared benefit of all”)

………..

What’s really going on here in the Occupied Territory of Kanada?
I wish I could say that all of this is hyperbole or tongue-in-cheek but…. this is WW3:

The cover:
Many regions are still under the crippling economic and social lockdown sanctions. The invaders have us locked into Red, Grey zones, some with military curfews enforced (QC)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Zone_(Iraq)
“Red Zone is a term designating unsafe areas in Iraq after the 2003 invasion by the United States, Britain, and other allies. It is contrasted with the high-security sector of Baghdad called the Green Zone. ”

— Citizens of Kanada are under direct order to enforce Distancing, another combat term, while donning gloves, shields and (spray) guns. Aimed at each other.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distancing
“Distancing is the appropriate selection of distance between oneself and a combatant throughout an encounter. Distancing is significant in an altercation as it determines both attack and defence options for all parties involved.”

#14 Do any ... on 03.14.21 at 2:00 pm

Here’s what the surge looked like, thanks to realtor John Pasalis (who hates me):
————————————————–
realtors like you?

#15 Caraway on 03.14.21 at 2:01 pm

As an artist, seeing the money generated by the sale of NFTs makes me want to jump in on the trend. Am I missing out on a chance at big money by not taking advantage of this potentially once in a lifetime opportunity?
Then I researched the terrible ecological impacts and that’s one reason I won’t be doing it. (https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/nfts-hot-effect-earth-climate/amp)
I’m still waiting for my father-in-law to tell me making a million bucks (or 70 million) selling a jpeg of my art is as easy as uploading it. What am I waiting for? Anyone can do it and your art doesn’t even have to be good.

#16 Slanty Semi on 03.14.21 at 2:01 pm

Happy Birthday, Garth!!

Hope you had a swell day!

#17 binky barnes on 03.14.21 at 2:03 pm

I hope/assume the ‘revolution’ to which you refer is not directed at our PM, Garth. He is almost single-handedly keeping this country together right now. His foresight, leadership and integrity are an inspiration for so many of us during these troubled times. Respectfully, to pinpoint the big man in any manner is just wrong!

BB

#18 Bert on 03.14.21 at 2:08 pm

Bitcoin is here to stay. It likely becomes part of portfolios along side gold and other commodities. Gold and hard unproductive hard assets probably decline in value over the longer term.

TSLA probably becomes the largest company in the world by market cap. AMZN sold for much higher valuations than 10 years ago prior to scaling its business globally.

There’s a real estate shortage in Canada – specifically Ontario. Look around. There’s no inventory.

Decentralization is here to stay. It has been occurring for some time now. It probably continues at this pace.

All of this is perfectly normal. If you can’t adapt you will underperform as an investor. I would be very way of the current rise in old economy value stocks. Many businesses that were dying pre covid are back above their pre covid highs. ANF LYV are examples.

Banks are losing market share to SQ PYPL and others at an alarming rate yet many banks are at ATHs. The small cap value index has gone parabolic.

Inflation expectations have never been higher. Be careful.

#19 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 2:08 pm

#12 Doug in London on 03.14.21 at 1:54 pm

Re: buying at the low

————

Doug, yes, I remember you were indeed jumping up and down yelling BUY! last year this time on this blog. Good call!

#20 Pricedoutmillenial on 03.14.21 at 2:13 pm

Companies have experimented wfh on a large scale. Once things return to normal,I think there will be 2 different categories. 1) Jobs where productivity can be measured clearly would have fared well. Knowledge based work where what needs to be delivered gets defined beforehand and it’s easy to see if the employee is delivering or not. It’s a win win because companies don’t have to spend on infrastructure and the employee saves time on commute and other costs.

2) Jobs where productivity is not clear cut and measured by hours someone puts in. This would make employers insecure and they will be waiting for the stay at home situation to change to get the employees back in.

Some people have already been working from home for 2-3 days a week prior to the wfh caused by COVID. Highly likely that the hybrid model will be in place for the next few years.

I am not rationalizing buying hours away from work. Not going there as the jump in prices don’t make any sense anymore. Stepping back to stay sane.

#21 Bert on 03.14.21 at 2:14 pm

Many value traps are lurking out there. Companies who’s eps and revenue were declining pre covid yet their stock is hitting new ATHs. Do your homework before you buy value stocks and low p/e stocks. Many are wildly over valued due to the re opening mania.

#22 Bert on 03.14.21 at 2:18 pm

Starting to see calls again for WTI to $100. Many commodities are back to or close to their 2011 highs (ie copper). Be careful. This is commodity mania.

#23 print print print on 03.14.21 at 2:21 pm

None of this is normal. It all traces back to the pandemic.
______________________________________

no. it all traces back to central bank money printing.

#24 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.14.21 at 2:25 pm

Expect daily life to return to any semblance of the good old pre-CoViD19 days given the recklessness of the politicians, FED and CB’s ?

Maybe if everybody is guaranteed massive wage increases and incentives to keep up with the massive taxes that will be required to keep the ship floating

Maybe if the price of RE plummets substantially

You make a good point Garth: when the rose-clouded l glasses of delusion come off is when we might get our first taste of real revolution… when we discover what value actually means

Until that time comes, expect CB money printing to continue unabated. Just make sure you get your share

This probably doesn’t end well for many folks

#25 Steel City Kid on 03.14.21 at 2:34 pm

Far from the madding crowd of Canadian real estate buyers, I am jumping on to wish our host Happy Birthday!! Wishing you cake with inaccurate candleage (don’t want burns), some nice cocktails, sunshine and maybe even a puppy — have a great day, Garth!

#26 Planetgoofy on 03.14.21 at 2:36 pm

We are living in the most unreported inflation of all times.
The numbers lie.
How do i know?…as a developer builder its very easy to see. I cant remeber a time when Ive seen rate hikes like this on EVERYTHING.. 30 years plus.
One day it will turn to deflation and thats way worse….
For now enjoy your currecy debasement. Thank socks and if your in line for UBI the joke will be on you….Eggs 8 buks a doz ect ect.
Good luk to us all we are going to need it.

#27 Planetgoofy on 03.14.21 at 2:52 pm

Ill add.
Toilet paper probably is holding it value better than the loonie.
Currency use to be a store of value and when it was backed by gold it was a rock. Now its more like used toilet paper. People are figuring it out.
Stocks
Houses
Art
Anything has proven to be better.
Go Socks!

#28 Brian Ripley on 03.14.21 at 2:58 pm

I have my chart of the Average Prices of VANCOUVER and TORONTO Single Family Detached Houses, BITCOIN and GOLD all Denominated in USD published:
http://www.chpc.biz/bitcoin-gold–re.html

In February 2021 Bitcoin and Toronto and Vancouver Single Family Detached average prices pressed higher with the animal spirits remaining fully engaged since 1Q 2020.

Gold bullion prices remained flat as NFT traders perfected the art of consumption.

#29 Ustabe on 03.14.21 at 3:00 pm

I don’t know about Panama but I will agree with Flop’s article on Portugal.

Lisbon is some kind of city and when you leave the touristy Albufeira behind and settle into Tavira or better still San Antonio which is right on the border with Spain, you can live like a king on a handful of euros a day.

Stay away from the hotels and find a local who will long term rent a couple of rooms. In the old town almost all the shops have rudimentary accommodation above but the shop keepers all live elsewhere now…just ask.

Settle in, day trips to Seville, Gibraltar or even a long weekend in North Africa. See if you like it.

Long trip from here to there so its not like having a cottage up north. We almost pulled the trigger on a less expensive two room condo type thing a couple of years ago but the pain of the flight distance won out.

#30 Guelph Guru on 03.14.21 at 3:02 pm

“expect revolution.”

A revolution in Guelph!! What would that be? Maybe we all will decide not to have Tim Hortons coffee for a day.
I guess that should do it.

#31 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.14.21 at 3:04 pm

5 P on 03.14.21 at 1:24 pm
If you want to buy. Call the listing agent. Ask them if they will double end the deal.
============
This is actually illegal here in BC. Same agent cannot represent both buyer and seller.

#32 Jake on 03.14.21 at 3:06 pm

Feds and bankers fear a 1929 repeat… the fear of massive selling and no buyers that will crash our markets.

So, rates fall, money gets printed and dropped from the heavens to keep everyone spending and save jobs. No wonder BC is $60,000 US while every 10k milestone before that has been called out as another bubbly high.

Round and round she goes, where she stops we all know so we kick the can down the road.

#33 Not a chance. on 03.14.21 at 3:07 pm

“Bitcoin exploded, even when it’s backed by nothing and will inevitably blow up.” -Garth

Why do you think it exploded to 1 Trillion in market cap ?

First of all the paper dollar is backed by nothing and can be infinitely created. Bitcoin is 100% finite and cannot be created past 21million coins, not even gold is finite. Big win for Bitcoin, big win for the average person that holds Bitcoin.

As a decentralized store of value the central banks cannot devalue it like they are doing and will continue to do with paper currency.

In many countries people do not have access to banks…Bitcoin allows them to do business without a middle man. Many 3rd world countries are way ahead in Bitcoin adoption..way ahead. Why do I need a bank to send another party money ? I don’t.

The largest and best public companies are starting to move their cash into Bitcoin and it will just explode.

Gold has been losing to Bitcoin and some say cash is flowing out of gold directly into Bitcoin. Tesla 1.5B already…next will likely be Apple, Amazon etc…

Whether you agree or not decentralized monetary networks are needed and are not going anywhere.The Blockchain is the next chapter in the evolution of the Internet. What will be leaving is paper money as its converted into a soveriegn digital currency and Bitcoin as a store of value eventually displacing Gold.

#34 Dolce Vita on 03.14.21 at 3:08 pm

You’re doing a good job capturing the times and giving advice Garth.

Myself I believe one of the underlying reasons for the get rich quick schemes is because of rates, down, down, down since the late 90’s:

https://i.imgur.com/LLvQRsF.png

Savers no longer prosper. Looking for quick ways to make up for that.

Also, towards your worries about rates increasing there is truth to that.

I mean you can pretty much link an up/down cycle to cooling inflation or cheap money to stimulate the economy in the above chart – ought to.

From the chart I think when the 5Y hits 2-2.4% it will cool down RE (currently at about 1%).

Correlates well esp. with yesterdays “Declining Interest Rates Has Helped Drive…” chart by Ryan – yields up, asset value down.

—————-

Over the past few days I suppose what surprised me the most was the Ipsos poll that found:

Most Canadians think ‘normal life’ won’t return until 2022 or beyond

Not a very cheery lot. Gov Canada beg, borrow and stealing (Covax) vax doses for Cdns and delivering. By June Canada will receive more doses from J&J and Novavax, 10’s of millions.

Awash in vax come late Spring, early Summer.

Like you Garth I believe Fall most vax’d and even if the % herd immunity number is high (76% if Manaus is an indication) Canada will have achieved that.

I get that maybe it will take awhile for Cdns to feel more like themselves. You don’t just turn around 1 years worth of what amounts to solitary confinement in a day.

———————-

Italia in Zona Rossa, well most of it. Sardegna Zona Bianca (some good news). Until Apr 6th. Easter gone, one of the 2 big feast days in Italia (other XMas). This isn’t our first Rodeo. Will get thru it again.

My Province of Pordenone in the Region of FVG doing very well but lockdowned nonetheless as lockdowns are Regional not Provincial (in Italia a Region = Cdn Province, a Region comprised of Provinces).

Yup, just another Covid-19 day on Planet Earth.

#35 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.14.21 at 3:17 pm

The main reason why WFH fails is the often forgotten psychological factor. As in for most of us who have actually (had) a career in the workforce and have (had) to support a family a job is a means to an end,pays the bills and stuff. As such at some point or another, especially with less of the peer pressure and supervisory encouragement everybody’s performance starts trending to the minimum required. Seen it a lot even in the on-site staff performance.
“”The job” for a solid portion of the workforce is not their life calling and management knows that quite well ,else there would be no KPI tracking, no team meetings no goal setting know annual reviews a.s.o. .
Most people without someone to direct their schedule and enforce compliance in a limited or controlled distraction environment ( the office) without peer pressure will fail.

#36 WTF on 03.14.21 at 3:26 pm

#25 Hammertown “Far from the madding crowd of Canadian real estate buyers, I am jumping on to wish our host Happy Birthday!! Wishing you cake with inaccurate candleage (don’t want burns), some nice cocktails, sunshine and maybe even a puppy — have a great day, Garth!”
—————————————————————
I second that! Cant think of anyone else who has done so much for so many , selflessly educating us beavers on all things housing/financial. Allowing diatribes that typically have nada to do with the subject matter. Pithy rebuttals sprinkled appropriately and judiciously.

Looking good in the youth of old age.

That Folks, is a seriously pathetic MSU!

#37 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.14.21 at 3:28 pm

And last post of the day.
Prices are a wrong target to focus on and ultimately they will stay the same for a bit then start trending up. Why is that ,you may ask .
The true issue is purchasing power which really is tied to how much you can actually buy ; first prices go up,eventually wages follow, then prices go up some more ;we are approaching the biggest inheritance transfer in the world where the boomers will leave their assets to the “X” and millenials. This coupled with the amount of QE will ensure real inflation will catch up with the CPI and current valuations.
Yes,prices exploded up and they will reset..to the current valuations ,hopefully without spiraling into hyperinflation .

#38 Dolce Vita on 03.14.21 at 3:49 pm

“The virus caused our current delusion. When it goes, expect revolution.”

——–

I think at first there will be a national sigh of relief. When everyone’s going to look at everyone else as if to say “Is it REALLY over?”

When they all agree that it IS OVER they’ll all bolt and do stuff they’ve been wanting to do like forever.

Then when that is satiated [and who knows how long that will take?], it could be your revolution or it could be an EVOLUTION – to what who knows?

For sure it will be something like this in the near terms (I believe Cdns are between Crisis and Testing):

https://i.imgur.com/mSbe4Jr.png

————–

Fingers crossed.

-FWIW

#39 mark on 03.14.21 at 3:58 pm

Sometimes Revolution is the only way.

#40 KNOW IT ALL on 03.14.21 at 4:11 pm

“Bitcoin exploded, even when it’s backed by nothing and will inevitably blow up.”

What was that 1.9 Trillion dollars that just got issued by the Fed backed by?

40% of all US dollars were created in the past 12 months.
What was that backed by?

If anything is going to blow up its going to be the US dollar.

Currencies are backed by governments’ power to tax. The greatest power of all. Bitcoin is backed by…pffft. – Garth

#41 Adam Smith on 03.14.21 at 4:20 pm

This sums it up:

https://www.thepigarse.com/post/bank-of-canada-against-cooling-housing-market-tweeting-diamond-hands-and-rocket-ship-emojis

#42 Dipu on 03.14.21 at 4:28 pm

And price will never fall. ( my comment will be deleted for saying this)

#43 Westcoaster on 03.14.21 at 4:38 pm

It’s utter madness,Sold my house in a small town on the island,Double what I paid,just 3 years ago.And by small town,I mean less than 2000 people.
Paid off the mortgage, Ended up with a pretty good chunk of change,Looking at other locations now,at far less prices.
Plan is to be mortgage free,debt free,and some left over.

Happy Birthday Garth

#44 BBNO$ on 03.14.21 at 4:42 pm

Year ago (March 10th, 2020) I was still in a packed club watching what ended up being the last concert I went to. Canadian rapper BBNO$. He has a song called “who dat boi”, which I just know Garth rocks in his way to the office daily. Clever kid this BBNO$. Normally instead of saying “Corona” BBNO$ sings it as “don’t get bronchitis”. He changed it up this time as thing were starting to be concerning and sung it like below. Appropriate for past year of this blog, right?

Don’t get sick
Don’t get strep
Don’t get Corona
Aye (skrrrrrrrrr)
So this money shit, yeah, it’s been on my mind…

#45 Carla on 03.14.21 at 4:45 pm

Happy Birthday, Garth!

#46 Wrk.dover on 03.14.21 at 4:52 pm

Best wishes for a Happy Day to the most patriotic of all of Canadians.

And thanks for the blog, a lot!

A toast with that mix I posted last night, right now, gulp!

(my head is twirly, organic water chaser in order)

Next….

#47 DON on 03.14.21 at 4:59 pm

https://pressprogress.ca/telus-use-of-subcontractors-on-covid-19-contracts-is-raising-new-questions-about-its-messy-vaccine-booking-system/

#48 Drinking on 03.14.21 at 5:04 pm

Flop, Ustabe, actually very good true info from both. I do know a couple who reside in Panama, left the insane world that Garth has been educating us for the past 10 yrs plus and have no regrets whatsoever.

Also have family who reside in Europe who also takes advantage of the low prices of Portugal, as you mentioned, away from the big cities. South of France (away from the big cities) is very affordable as well. I know for the fact that my retired father lives there.

I am sure that Dolce Vita could add a few sentences.

Yes Garth, it has become insane out there, stopped in to a grocery store today to pick up a few items and just shook my head of the prices asked. Thankfully my ice auger came in handy this winter and caught plenty of fish. My only complaint is that the season was not longer, it is 17 today in cowtown and has been warmer then usual for the past week.

Apocalypses is back; time to go outside and start up the BBQ and look to the heavens to see if a big ball of rock is heading our way..

Happy belated or happy B-Day, cannot remember the actual date.

#49 Tyberius on 03.14.21 at 5:10 pm

Probably one of the smartest people on earth (in my opinion). Please listen to his insights – you will be better for it. My wife and I watched on TV over the weekend, in 3 installments. Very informative!

But…Over 3 hours long, so take breaks…

“Join Dr. Zach Bush for an in-depth conversation where he takes a macro look at the events of last year within the context of the last several decades, how disease spreads within global populations, the driving factors of mortality, and the public health statistics that support these perspectives.

Now more than ever, a broad perspective can help us understand these recent events so we can make more informed decisions for our future. If not for the sake of our technological and pharmaceutical innovations, but for our families and greater public health.”

https://youtu.be/f6zb5rXgRvs

#50 Dr V on 03.14.21 at 5:13 pm

123 Sail Away

“Office monthly rent plus overhead specifically for the building: $20,000
Office monthly salary: $140,000
Office monthly revenue: $350,000”

This gives about 5.7% of revenue spent on building.
Presuming this is triple net so you pay utilities and
property taxes and this is included in total? Can you tell
me a lease rate $/sq ft? Leaseable area? Any parking?
Reason I am asking is I am trying to compare with my current arrangement. Thanks.

#51 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.14.21 at 5:21 pm

HAND ON THE SCALES.
The bull stock market, fueled by the financial media will shortly be found to have had their hand on the scales. And when the correction arrives it will be obvious to the more skeptical, and totally unexpected by the media believers as they reach for their sick bags. The financial media’s plea of innocence will at best be quoted as being taken out of context, at worst outrageously misappropriated. All told their impartial truth will be found to bear more than a passing resemblance to Donald’s alternative facts. We are asked to lionize the financial media who insist that God has chosen them to spread the word. “follow me to the land of milk and honey”. How sharper than a serpents tooth is to have the financial media biased in their opinions. I am sure that in their own minds they are a knowledgeable group though I might hesitate to lend them my car. That is all I have to say on that, for now.

#52 Stone on 03.14.21 at 5:21 pm

#37 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.14.21 at 3:28 pm
And last post of the day.
Prices are a wrong target to focus on and ultimately they will stay the same for a bit then start trending up. Why is that ,you may ask .
The true issue is purchasing power which really is tied to how much you can actually buy ; first prices go up,eventually wages follow, then prices go up some more ;we are approaching the biggest inheritance transfer in the world where the boomers will leave their assets to the “X” and millenials. This coupled with the amount of QE will ensure real inflation will catch up with the CPI and current valuations.
Yes,prices exploded up and they will reset..to the current valuations ,hopefully without spiraling into hyperinflation .

———

Inheritance transfer/wealth transfer.

I keep hearing this motherhood statement coming out of so many people’s mouth. Is it possible that a lie said so many times becomes the truth? All I see are people who are trying to look rich who are in fact only lowly debt slaves.

Or is it possible what is coming is the biggest debt transfer ever?

#53 Planetgoofy on 03.14.21 at 5:28 pm

#13 TurnerNation on 03.14.21 at 1:56 pm
——————————————–
Many think the “reset” is a conspiracy….not even close.
This is it…”The new normal” programing.
Its a reality and all the evidence is abound.

Happy B-Day Grarth.

#54 Calgary on 03.14.21 at 5:32 pm

$69M for JPG file

World gone bonker

#55 tkid on 03.14.21 at 5:34 pm

Dude, happy birthday!

#56 Mr Happy on 03.14.21 at 5:35 pm

So here is the thing….

Sold my house in 2016 for 1.2mil. I was mortgage free.

I paid 400K for a condo and invested the rest which is doing great. I am presently sitting in my tropical home (been here since November, plan to return when the hotel quarantine nonsense is over). Had an offer for 750K for the condo with the right to rent back for 2 years.

Do I pull the trigger and sell? What will my purchase options be in 2 years? Garth? Your thoughts?

Mr Happy

#57 Grunt on 03.14.21 at 5:43 pm

Retirement destinations.

Forget Thailand. No more westerners please. Visas now focused on wealthy Chinese. Besides the King is an absolute monarch i.e. dictator. No bows or curtsys please. You get down on all paws and grovel. Hmm PROC people do that?

#58 KNOW IT ALL on 03.14.21 at 5:43 pm

#40 KNOW IT ALL on 03.14.21 at 4:11 pm
“Bitcoin exploded, even when it’s backed by nothing and will inevitably blow up.”

What was that 1.9 Trillion dollars that just got issued by the Fed backed by?

40% of all US dollars were created in the past 12 months.
What was that backed by?

If anything is going to blow up its going to be the US dollar.

Currencies are backed by governments’ power to tax. The greatest power of all. Bitcoin is backed by…pffft. – Garth

—————————————————–

So then your saying they can just print money indefinitely just because they have the power tax?

Makes no sense whatsoever.

#59 Cheese on 03.14.21 at 5:43 pm

Happy Birthday!

#60 Ministry Of Truth on 03.14.21 at 5:47 pm

The virus caused our current delusion. When it goes, expect revolution. – GT

What revolution ? Virus ate the brains, when it goes away there will be nothingness for mankind, there is no wake up from this sleep !

#61 Old Man on 03.14.21 at 6:03 pm

A reddit community wants “commonsense housing laws”:

Updates and news about Canada’s housing crisis. We are fighting for Canada’s future. We want commonsense housing laws that ensure: transparency, ample housing stock, and sensible price appreciation. All so hardworking Canadians can find a decent home to live in.

https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/

and a long list of proposals:

https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/ly2vs7/the_government_cant_do_anything_about_housing/

#62 Hilroy on 03.14.21 at 6:35 pm

Enjoy your Birthday Pi !

#63 Stephen Holtwin on 03.14.21 at 6:38 pm

Garth, 1 CAD = .80 USD Will we be at par soon because of our strong oil reserves in Alberta and Saskatchewan?

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.21 at 6:50 pm

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 1:39 pm
I’ll just keep renting and investing thanks.

Over to you Ponzie.
—————
And I’ll keep strolling with my lovely wife on the sandy beach.

#65 Planetgoofy on 03.14.21 at 6:51 pm

LOL sorry Garth slip of the fatty.
Happy B-Day Garth

#66 Dr V on 03.14.21 at 6:55 pm

56 Happy.

You said you were happy with your arrangement.
So just be happy.

HBD Garth and thanks for this blog.

#67 t0R0NTO on 03.14.21 at 6:57 pm

Toronto world city?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/west-end-apartment-residents-given-24-hours-to-vacate-1.5949249

#68 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 7:00 pm

#50 Dr V on 03.14.21 at 5:13 pm
123 Sail Away

“Office monthly rent plus overhead specifically for the building: $20,000
Office monthly salary: $140,000
Office monthly revenue: $350,000”

This gives about 5.7% of revenue spent on building.
Presuming this is triple net so you pay utilities and
property taxes and this is included in total? Can you tell
me a lease rate $/sq ft? Leaseable area? Any parking?
Reason I am asking is I am trying to compare with my current arrangement. Thanks.

———-

3 offices of around 1,500 sf each.

Lease rate per sf about $22, triple net about doubles that.

Parking separate at $50 per spot per month.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.21 at 7:01 pm

#39 mark on 03.14.21 at 3:58 pm
Sometimes Revolution is the only way.
—————–
Yes, sometimes the serfs have enough.
And then the pitchforks do the talking.
Watching “Bolivar” on Netflix.
Venezuela is/was a beautiful country.
Sailo, you not homesick?

#70 My Dog ... on 03.14.21 at 7:07 pm

thanx for all the great service Garth … Happy BDay. Aint no better ….

#71 NSNG on 03.14.21 at 7:09 pm

There are two events that changed my financial mindset significantly.

The first one was getting out of debt. Specifically, consumer debt.

I grew up poor and at that time banks didn’t just hand out credit cards to get you hooked. It was a ‘privilege’ to own one (ha). You had to have a good income and a good credit rating so by the time I had a steady job, I jumped at the chance of owning such a status symbol. Big mistake.

It didn’t take long before I was paying $70 in interest per month (which was a lot of money back then, especially for someone who had a below-average wage). I couldn’t believe I was paying money monthly for many things that were already broken or gone. This is when I resolved to finally get out of debt once and for all.

And another lesson here is that until you really hate where you are, nothing is going to change. I try to get that message across to the homeless people I come across. I’m not trying to be mean-spirited, it’s just a fact.

I didn’t own a home and probably never will. I’ve always been at the bottom half of the income strata and now that I am above it I have no desire to take on debt.

To make a long story not so long, when I finally did pay down the last of my credit card bills it was like a huge weight had been lifted from me. That is a feeling I never want to relinquish. Another kick in the teeth was when I paid off a three-year truck loan. Within a few months, the engine blew and the truck was gone. By the time I owned it, it was worn out. No more vehicle loans! I prefer the beater to owing money.

The second most significant time was when I crossed the $50K in net worth. It may not seem like much but at that point, I knew that, if push came to shove, I could pick up a job at minimum wage and survive! Once again, as someone who grew up poor, that feeling had a huge psychological impact on me.

The $50K mark also allowed me to look at investment opportunities more objectively. Measuring their worth and potential gain against my lump.

The reason I’m saying this is because for a long time I heard the investment crowd preaching about the millions I could have in retirement if I just focused on saving x amount now. The problem was the two numbers were so abstract that I couldn’t reconcile them psychologically. Getting to 50K is reconcilable. It is a near enough goal that, once you hit that plateau your mindset changes, you have some economic power at your back, and you can really focus on other near-term goals from there.

So if I would council anyone coming behind me I’d tell them to focus on the guaranteed investment return of getting out of debt and get to the 50K plateau as a goal that is easy to focus on but significant.

From there, your contentment and confidence grows

#72 NSNG on 03.14.21 at 7:11 pm

Oh! and Happy Birthday!

#73 joe on 03.14.21 at 7:11 pm

“But – terrifying fact # 2 – this is not contained to the idiots who live in the metropolis. It’s everywhere.”

It’s because of the idiot who’s running the Bank of Canada.

#74 Drinking on 03.14.21 at 7:19 pm

#60 Ministry Of Truth

I disagree! I think that this pandemic for those that get it; was a wake up call for those who needed a wake up.

That is all I have to say about it for the fact that the rhetoric will follow.

I go by the thought that people who go to the bar each week complaining on how much they hate there jobs. They lose there job or are laid off and go to the same bar and complain that they lost there job.
The best is if they are given promotion and are happy as heck of receiving there new found wealth opportunity they will go to the same bar and cheer about it.

Human nature is funny, sometimes a wake up call is the best thing to happen to someone.

60’s and 70’s was all about getting rights directed to humanity, since 2011 it is all going away and certain few are becoming sheep. Which way does one wish go, I think people are waking up?

#75 George S on 03.14.21 at 7:22 pm

Likely why is happening in the world of bitcoin is that people are using bitcoin to purchase an assortment of drugs online and suffering from some sort of drug induced dementia.
I am surprised that people are claiming that bitcoin has some sort of value and is only ever going to increase in value because there is only going to be a maximum number of them at some point in time, probably when bitcoin uses the entire energy output of the sun to process the transactions.
Maybe it will be good for fixing the climate change crisis because people will be forced to accelerate the development of fusion reactors to provide electricity to process bitcoin transactions and then when it crashes to zero there will be all these nice new power plants with nothing to do.
I guess that is why casinos and bingo halls exist and are very fancy and employ a lot of people and make a few of them very rich.

It would be interesting to have a time machine to go into the future and see what is written about the bitcoin mania of the early 21st century.

Bitcoin pumpers always claim how wonderfully secure it is while neglecting that credit cards seem to work quite well and cost a tiny fraction of BC’s transaction costs.

At lest when it crashes down to zero governments won’t have to bail anyone out like they are probably going to have to do for the great housing crash of 2022.

There seems to be some talk about retiring in some other countries with a favourable tax situation and a lower cost of living, but mainly a better climate. There are quite a few success stories about people doing this but low taxes may mean low services and a lower cost of living may mean lower standard of living. You don’t necessarily want to be caught in the middle of a near civil war over raising gas prices by 20%.

#76 KNOW IT ALL on 03.14.21 at 7:24 pm

#63 Stephen Holtwin on 03.14.21 at 6:38 pm
Garth, 1 CAD = .80 USD Will we be at par soon because of our strong oil reserves in Alberta and Saskatchewan?

‐———-‐——————-

No its because the FED continues to print money out of thin air. The more US dollars in circulation the less the US dollar becomes. Therefore the Canadian dollar goes up in value in relation to the USD.

#77 april on 03.14.21 at 7:24 pm

#49 _ he’s exploiting the covid -19 pandemic. Do your own research.

#78 AM in MN on 03.14.21 at 7:25 pm

Bitcoin exploded, even when it’s backed by nothing and will inevitably blow up.

————————————————–

As I mentioned last year, Garth will come around by about next summer…. but now I think maybe before that.

Let’s talk about what Bitcoin (not other cryptos) are “backed” by.

The massive amounts of energy required to run the mining system provide for unequaled levels of security and decentralized control. There is nothing in the world like it. It is thus becoming the backbone of many Fintech start-ups that will be changing the global financial systems in ways unimagined 20 years ago, or by many now.

We will go back to the days before government regulators controlled everything, and money printing central banks will be written about in history books.

Everyone with financial assets ignores this at their peril.

The libertarians that hold much of the BTC stock will not put up with statists and socialists telling them what to do with their new wealth.

There are many people who are still renting apartments and driving old cars sitting on well north of $10M in BTC. The same people who populated conferences several years ago when owning 100 BTC was small change. There is a strong libertarian political philosophy behind many of them, and they will make their voices heard. They are global, with far more allegiance to principles and ideals than to any nation state. The changes will be profound.

I’ll stop there, people get scared at the idea, but history is lost on those who live through it…

#79 april on 03.14.21 at 7:27 pm

This housing madness sounds like the Dot-com bubble.

#80 TurnerNation on 03.14.21 at 7:28 pm

So what’s really going in Kanada?
I noted mid last year that we are in a global WW3 and the spoils of war is LAND.

Have you seen this new law coming? It’s a biggie.
This weblog already noted Kanadians never had land ownership right anyway. The CROWN owns it all. (You know that harmless and powerless tourist attraction across the pond? Mere ‘figureheads’.)

Could this new Land law be Mis-used to help flatten the economic curve, by banning mining, oil & gas exploration; even shutting down farms thus straining our food supply and supply chains?

Need I even ask this guys. You know the answer.

https://parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-2/bill/C-15/first-reading
SUMMARY
An Act respecting the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
This enactment provides that the Government of Canada must take all measures necessary to ensure that the laws of Canada are consistent with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and must prepare and implement an action plan to achieve the objectives of the Declaration

…..

2. As another blog pointed out the LAND GRAB especially for our water rights, has begun. No time was wasted in 2020 eh.

https://niagaraindependent.ca/niagara-parks-declines-ramsar-designation/
September 25, 2020

However, the Town Council of Niagara-on-the-Lake was the first to have a look behind the curtain. Council realized there were processes and a planning regime behind the designation that could actually have legal teeth and impact their ability to use the river and water from the river. As a result, the Town was the first to refuse providing an endorsement of the designation.

Most recently, the Niagara Parks Commission, with a Board made up of democratically elected officials and others appointed by the democratically elected provincial government, did their own due diligence by getting a legal opinion about Ramsar from their Canadian law firm. What they heard made them back away.

………

3. Hey stuff happens you know. Get off the land and into your ‘Smart City’

https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2019/10/22/wildfire-that-threatened-alberta-communities-was-arson-rcmp-province/

#81 Most countries will move on 03.14.21 at 7:28 pm

to a sovereign digital currency … there are many differences between them and say Bitcoin however.

First they will continue to debase them with their ridiculous interest rate policies and worse the new digital dollar will have all kinds of metadata attached to it..the central bankers will know exactly where you spend , how you spend.

For those that have expressed disgust with central bankers well you are exactly why crypto currencies were developed over 10 years ago.

I’ll stop talking crypto now but may chime back in when Bitcoin hits $100,000 later this year.

#82 cuke and tomato picker on 03.14.21 at 7:29 pm

You can save a great deal of money and time by not drinking and not going to the bar.

#83 theoryAndPractice on 03.14.21 at 7:32 pm

*** Happy B-day Garth ***
I keep learning a lot from you, and people here. Thank you for providing this platform!

#84 Nonplused on 03.14.21 at 7:39 pm

“Large numbers of people who thought they’d never return to the workplace will be called back.”

It is hard to find statistics on WFH / WFW but I guestimate no more than 20% of the working population has an office job that could be affected. Dentists, doctors, plumbers, carpenters, car salesmen, mechanics, operators, drivers, cooks, and on and on never could work from home pandemic or not. So for that reason I think the whole issue was overblown.

If we use another guestimate of 80% of those working from home returning to the office post pandemic and the other 20% remain at home, I figure only 4% of the working population will be WFH permanently on a go forward basis. No big deal.

Of course because I couldn’t find any stats this is just an approximation to kind of see what the order of the magnitude of this thing is.

Would 4% of the working population looking for a house with a home office really cause what we are seeing? Especially if many of them are selling their old house/condo? Would it cause the run up in lumber prices? Groceries? I conclude we have to look elsewhere to find the true cause of the crisis.

Using Ryan’s post yesterday as evidence, I conclude that the main driver of all this housing insanity is interest rates. The lower they go, the more your monthly will carry, and most people only look at the monthly.

Additionally, supply and demand factors in as there are problems all up and down the supply chain caused by covid related restrictions. Just as the RV industry is experiencing extreme demand, they are suffering staff restrictions and a shortage of appliances and now fiberglass. You can still get a new RV, but you might want to order it now if you want it before fall. Car factories are shutting down assembly lines while they wait for electronic parts. Whole meat processing plants have been shut down for weeks to deal with outbreaks. I am sure it is affecting saw mills as well.

So just when money has never been cheaper real goods supply has never been more constrained. If inflation isn’t already here (I would argue it is), it’s coming.

And inflation is pretty much a one way street. I can’t remember the exact number Garth used but I think he said 75% of the bubble price sticks even after a correction. What if we see that in 2×4’s? There is another $25,000 in the cost to build a new home right there that won’t go away. And if everything else at the Home Depot you need to build a house goes up proportionately, maybe the people who are buying right now won’t fair so badly after all. Maybe the future is higher rates AND persistently high home prices driven by the cost to build new homes.

Remember, central banks want inflation, and by golly they are going to get it. But they won’t allow deflation. So that means by the time they put the brakes on things by raising rates, the previous price increases will be sticky. $7 for a 2×4 might be the new norm. That means the proposed minimum wage of $15/h when measured in 2×4’s isn’t really an increase at all. Except that said minimum wage earner will be paying $5,000 a year in taxes that he/she/zee didn’t before.

#85 Long-Time Lurker on 03.14.21 at 7:43 pm

Happy Birthday, Garth!

I just momentarily stepped back into “The Matrix” to see how things were going.

I’ve been practicing “mind over matter”: I don’t mind, so wackos don’t matter.

I honestly don’t know what’s going to happen next. I’m just watching the charts and waiting to pounce.

#86 leebow on 03.14.21 at 7:47 pm

You don’t understand. This time it’s different. If you don’t buy now, you’ll be priced out forever. Houses only go uppa. Government will always come to rescue. Nobody ever lost money in real estate.

Enjoy the spectacle.

#87 Comments! on 03.14.21 at 7:54 pm

A quaint and affordable small town, now better known as “Owing Sound”. See what I did there?

Happy birthday Garth.

#88 Linda on 03.14.21 at 8:08 pm

All I can say is, thank all the powers that be that we are not in the market for RE. Are long term owners who are happy where we are. Even better, our home isn’t our only financial asset. About the only drawback is trying to secure materials or labor for home related projects right now. Hopefully as the pandemic wanes the supply chain issues will resolve themselves.

#89 Nonplused on 03.14.21 at 8:11 pm

#35 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.14.21 at 3:17 pm
The main reason why WFH fails is the often forgotten psychological factor. As in for most of us who have actually (had) a career in the workforce and have (had) to support a family a job is a means to an end,pays the bills and stuff. As such at some point or another, especially with less of the peer pressure and supervisory encouragement everybody’s performance starts trending to the minimum required. Seen it a lot even in the on-site staff performance.
“”The job” for a solid portion of the workforce is not their life calling and management knows that quite well ,else there would be no KPI tracking, no team meetings no goal setting know annual reviews a.s.o. .
Most people without someone to direct their schedule and enforce compliance in a limited or controlled distraction environment ( the office) without peer pressure will fail.

——————————

I’m seeing this in the “SFH” (School From Home) environment as well. We decided to try the SFH because SFS seemed ridiculous with all the rules and risk of re-closure, not so much the virus. Well, it turns out if I don’t constantly review my son’s performance he literally doesn’t do anything. His marks are way off. Everything gets handed in late. He’ll be going back to school in the fall, covid or no.

I think the SFH model probably works well for some applications, say like someone who signed up for an MBA and is motivated to pass. But not so much for kids who think algebra and social studies have no real life use. There may be parallels in the WFH world.

#90 SimplyPut7 on 03.14.21 at 8:12 pm

My retired relatives in the States got their stimulus cheques. They didn’t need it (live debt-free, frugal lifestyles), not sure what they will spend on. But it does feel like this current moment of euphoria will last until the end of the year, maybe more.

A coworker went for a walk in downtown Toronto, 1/3 of the retail places in their area are for lease, plus all the FOMO investors that bought condos in late 2016-2017 with extra retail spaces on the first floor of the buildings are near completion. Should be an interesting year, haven’t seen this type of irrational behaviour from people since the dot com boom.

#91 Nonplused on 03.14.21 at 8:24 pm

#82 cuke and tomato picker on 03.14.21 at 7:29 pm

“You can save a great deal of money and time by not drinking and not going to the bar.”

Yep. But what fun is that? You can also save a lot of money by not buying a motorcycle, watching Netflix, going camping, skiing, eating out, taking a vacation, or buying a skidoo. For most people the joys in life are not working and investing. That is only for those of us who made enough to save after we already exceeded our happiness goals.

#92 Drinking on 03.14.21 at 8:29 pm

#82 cuke and tomato picker

True, but it is a choice one will make whether one wishes to have a drink with there comfort groups or not. Great for you, that is your choice, life is short, save your money, do with it as you would, that is the great thing of life; one has a choice, that was the point.

Me, I am old enough, have done and as a citizen has contributed my share to this country, so, I am enjoying my later years doing what I want to do, not being told what to do. Good-luck!

#93 T-Rev on 03.14.21 at 8:33 pm

All true, Gartho. I think the fly in your prognostication ointment will be the percent of people who have to go into the office, and what percent of the time. Like you’ve detailed here many times, the white collar workers who largely escaped unscathed and now have pockets full of savings have been working from their couch for 12 months. How many are returning to pre-Covid office attendance? It’s certainly less than 100pct, 100pct of the time. If 90% return, and the average attendance of those 90% in office is 4 days out of 5, then office attendance drops to 72% of pre-Covid levels. That’s enough to usher in lasting change in the housing market, urban core vs suburban.

#94 Nonplused on 03.14.21 at 8:45 pm

#90 SimplyPut7 on 03.14.21 at 8:12 pm

“A coworker went for a walk in downtown Toronto, 1/3 of the retail places in their area are for lease, plus all the FOMO investors that bought condos in late 2016-2017 with extra retail spaces on the first floor of the buildings are near completion. Should be an interesting year, haven’t seen this type of irrational behaviour from people since the dot com boom.”

————————————-

Here in Calgary I am noticing a few soccer clubs are installing training facilities complete with boards and turf in what used to be industrial warehouses. In one case it was a reception and departure lounge for a private airplane thing at the airport, half on the road half on the tarmac, now used for training (not enough space for balls). Repurposing? Obviously. But I’m guessing at dramatically reduced rents. Soccer clubs don’t tend to have a lot of money. They won’t sign a long term lease and then build boards and put in turf unless it is going to cost them less than it costs to rent a gym at a school.

(Side note: Kids, and what they can teach us about how people think: Outside the airport training facility were 2 helicopters that were “stacked” (pushed together against the fence). This was of great interest to the kids, 15 year olds mind you, who concluded that they must have synchronized the blades and landed them that way, even though there was a high fence right there they were up against. Nope. They used a fork lift or one of those tractors and wheel dollies. Now you know why people can’t think. They don’t know anything and really can’t imagine anything they haven’t seen.)

#95 Doug t on 03.14.21 at 8:46 pm

Have a scotch Garth – you deserve it – the next 3 years are going to make people commit Hari Kari – get your house in order

#96 Paul B on 03.14.21 at 8:58 pm

Happy Birthday, Garth!

I’m not so sure as you that WFH is a bust at the end of the pandemic. Where I work, I think it will be an option to WFH. We are geographically spread out anyways, so it doesn’t much matter where you sit. With video or audio conferencing and desktop sharing, it works well. Also, huge real estate savings for the company.

#97 Hilroy on 03.14.21 at 9:05 pm

HBD. May you add many more significant digits. #314

#98 Bert on 03.14.21 at 9:06 pm

So many weak value companies that were seeing revenue and eps declines pre covid are trading at new 52 week or multi year highs. Many turkeys swept up in this value cyclical re opening mania. Be very careful when buying a “value” or cyclical theme ETFs or stocks today. Much higher risk present today than in many years. Many will be value traps. Very scary.

#99 Phylis on 03.14.21 at 9:14 pm

#76 KNOW IT ALL on 03.14.21 at 7:24 pm
#63 Stephen Holtwin on 03.14.21 at 6:38 pm
Garth, 1 CAD = .80 USD Will we be at par soon because of our strong oil reserves in Alberta and Saskatchewan?

‐———-‐——————-

No its because the FED continues to print money out of thin air. The more US dollars in circulation the less the US dollar becomes. Therefore the Canadian dollar goes up in value in relation to the USD.
-x-x-

Oh my.

#100 DSnow on 03.14.21 at 9:19 pm

Garth I agree with 90+% of what you say. However, I can say as someone who employs 350+ people I don’t see WFH going away. I would we shocked if even 50% of people we asked to go back to the office. We have been 98% WFH for over 12 months without skipping a beat.

#101 Terry on 03.14.21 at 9:20 pm

I wouldn’t bet on a return to normal. The virus will surge again and again learning how to get stronger and deadlier with each passing season. A vaccine catastrophe is just around the corner. This virus is not a natural virus and the vaccines are not normal vaccines therefore………..this pandemic will not act like past pandemics. Get ready.

#102 crowdie on 03.14.21 at 9:22 pm

Slaving at the blog salt mine isnt required on your Birthday !
Either way thanks for all you do and have a Happy Birthday.

#103 8M3RCT3P on 03.14.21 at 9:27 pm

Want to buy a cottage, preferably in Muskoka, but can’t bring myself to pay these ridiculous prices on principle. I’m 35 with a net worth of 9.7M, so I could “afford” to buy something if I really wanted.

However, I can rent a $6M cottage for $2k/night during peak season, of which there are probably what, 90 days? The opportunity cost of owning a cottage right now is insane.

Do vacation homes get hit the hardest when this monster take a u-turn?

Let it burn.

#104 Tri state pat on 03.14.21 at 9:31 pm

Got the vacinne two days ago. Work for a very large company. Guess what, the managers want us back. Thirty percent now, fifty in three months, seventy five in six. They don’t like the work from home. Nobody is getting trained, they are worried about losing the “connection” to the company, especially from younger workers. The ones coming back are also looked upon as more dependable. First time in twenty five years upper management actually reaches out to ask me (pion) my opinion on things. Feels weird. Glad I’m back though. I was starting to lose my shit.

#105 Doug t on 03.14.21 at 9:55 pm

#82 cuke

Well that’s boring – I guess sitting in a room reading old issues of readers digest is an option ?

#106 Genbizx on 03.14.21 at 10:12 pm

How we could change things if our liberal Comrades didn’t care mostly about winning an election .
1. Dramatically increase housing supply with large ncentives to builders, streamlined approval process etc.. Laughable that in a country with so much land we have failed so miserably here. We all seem to want detached houses so build them. Nothing helps a bubble like a massive excess of supply.
2. Stop worrying so much about the “fragility” of the economy. Locking up everyone’s money in inflated mortgages now ensures a future stale economy. Make money more expensive right now and put the brakes on this debt explosion.
3. Think hard about how globalization didn’t help us in this pandemic. If we want jobs and security of supply we can’t remove and offshore entire vital sectors of the economy and expect to be ok. The biggest players in the world now are not our friends and are using the 1970’s playbook while we dream about a new fairy tale land of fresh air and unicorns.

#107 Regjeg on 03.14.21 at 10:46 pm

If anyone gave you a bundle of BTCC or BNXA for your birthday, Garth, don’t throw it away!

One way or another, it would be interesting to see what that bundle is worth a year from now.

#108 Annek on 03.14.21 at 10:48 pm

To:#71 NSNG on 03.14.21 at 7:09 pm
—————
I am impressed! Good for you to get out of credit card debt. Good advice for many people, as not everyone makes a huge salary.

#109 Barb on 03.14.21 at 10:50 pm

Yes, happy birthday to our host!

39 again, huh?

#110 Drinking on 03.14.21 at 11:06 pm

Don from the other day. Completely forgot about Vermillion lake although extremely beautiful had one of my most horrible experiences on that lake.

Have to go back 40 yrs or so, old piece of crap canoe, a canoe full of drunken idiots, freezing cold water (and I mean mountain glacier fed as you know) and these jackasses decided to tip it, I am sure you get the point, cannot believe that we some how made it back to shore alive.

But hell, we made it and live to tell the tale about it; would not trade that for anything in this pathetic world we currently live in. Live life people!!

#111 IthoughtWeWereSmarter on 03.14.21 at 11:09 pm

I used to brag about being Canadian but after the past 12-15 yrs of real estate stupidity, I no longer feel that way. We had a CB during the 2008 crisis that should have let things play out, as anyone with a financial brain knows leaving things to the masses will always play out best. If you tweak it, you’re postponing the inevitable. We will see that soon!!! Bottom line: WE AR SO DUMB!

#112 Canuck on 03.14.21 at 11:31 pm

Off topic, but has anyone noticed the unusually large number of news articles about Mark Carney lately? I read three today, on climate change, globalism and a book deal. All this for a guy who should be in the Canadian news for … nothing.

It feels like he is being groomed and prepped for a role in politics, maybe even a leadership role of a certain party.

#113 mj on 03.14.21 at 11:39 pm

the ECB said they are increasing their purchases to control yields. Is Europe in much worse position?

#114 Chepultepec on 03.15.21 at 12:01 am

Bitcoin will inevitably blow up!!!
Has it not gotten too big for that? I still do not feel comfortable with it but it seems that too much money is involved to fail.Elon is in and that made it more certain for the future.

#115 Ms. Fool on 03.15.21 at 12:18 am

Belated Happy Birthday Garth!!! Hope you had a fantastic day and I wish you more awesome days to come.
Thank you for giving us the gift of your time.

#116 oh yes on 03.15.21 at 1:04 am

oh yes im sure THIS will be the time the housing market fails for reals

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.15.21 at 1:34 am

Dog lovers will like this:

https://www.spiegel.de/stil/fotoprojekt-mensch-und-hund-auf-augenhoehe-a-0a2c6479-9782-4df4-b39d-774163ac6c24#fotostrecke-028cecab-07d3-41cb-93b2-f633497c2b06

#118 yvr_lurker on 03.15.21 at 1:44 am

Just wondering in the article below if it is the same real estate pusher Brad Lamb as you seem to loathe on your blog

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/west-end-apartment-residents-given-24-hours-to-vacate-1.5949249

If so, and from what it sounds in this article, he doesn’t give a shite about the conditions in his rat-hole that he has rented out to these poor folks for years.

#119 Zen Investor on 03.15.21 at 4:51 am

Pigs get slaughtered, as old, maybe older, than the oldest profession. But, Trudeaus doing the election dance so, not right now. So, is it time to step back, no , the pre-election phase announcements will be the gasoline on the fire. Why not wait ?

He’ll introduce his only budget ( the one that balanced itself in the twilight zone) and will puff it full of hot air, that you won’t get unless you vote for him. This likely includes the millions still on the dole who will either get an extension or implode.

So what ? Political parties have been slopping the hogs since the beginning of time. For people in the money business elections don’t matter. We make no matter the weather.

Writing covered calls? That’s about as current as drop shipping. ZWH.

The anticipation for a third fourth fifth wave is building. There’s great excitement for the prospect of making call center reservations for the non existent vaccine. Without which thousands more will die.

But, investors are looking out farther, 18 to 24 months. The interim won’t be pleasant, but if you can hang on, and if you’re still alive, the futures bright. What’s driving the market are the future prospects , not the present death toll.

#120 Elcheapo on 03.15.21 at 8:11 am

NSNG- My god, that is just the best, most practical comment I’ve read on this blog in years. In the typical daily sea of crap, to find your island of paradise comment was a total treat. Thank you. (With apologies to Flop….I like his comments too)

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.21 at 8:16 am

@#105 Doug t
“Well that’s boring – I guess sitting in a room reading old issues of readers digest is an option ?”

++++

Cuke lives in Victoria.
That’s considered foreplay.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.21 at 8:21 am

@#116 oh yes |I’m a realtor.

“oh yes im sure THIS will be the time the housing market fails for reals”

++++

Then you plan on buying 2, 3 more houses and condos on spec?
I mean if you see these bidding war 15% per month price increases as sustainable…..why not?

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.21 at 8:32 am

@#118 yvr lurker
“Just wondering in the article below if it is the same real estate pusher Brad Lamb…”

+++++

……Residents of the building said landlord and property manager Brad J. Lamb, big-name developer of Lamb Sterling Corp, also known as Lamb Development Corp., is refusing to help them……

It sounds like it may be the same real estate “Rock Star”

#124 Kiril Peev on 03.15.21 at 8:34 am

Market update: There seems to be no let up in demand for homes even though mortgage rates have jumped recently. I spoke with a mortgage broker that I work with and he said the rates range from 2.0-2.3% for a fixed 5 year term for uninsured mortgages and 1.4% for variable closed 5 year mortgage. Seems like the jump in rates has been in the fixed segment. There should be a little softening in demand given the approximate 0.5% pop. On $500,000 that would add about $2500 in extra interest charges per year.

#125 UCC on 03.15.21 at 9:00 am

Happy Belated Birthday Garth..may all your chest hair remain black

#126 Dharma Bum on 03.15.21 at 9:14 am

All this gibberish being bandied about regarding some sort of epic wealth transfer.

Exactly what wealth, and to whom is it being transferred?

All the wealth (net worth) is concentrated amongst startlingly few people. I mean, really, really few. And when it’s transferred, it’s going to stay with the heirs of those very, very few individuals. It’s not like everyone is suddenly going to receive a ton of money.

Here is the breakdown of wealth distribution in our country:

https://www.thekickassentrepreneur.com/family-wealth-distribution-in-canada/

Less than 5% of the people have a $1,000,000 net worth.

That’s not enough for a Toronto house.

Barely enough for a good quality Ottawa house right now.

Below the million dollar mark, the respective net worths of the “bottom” 95% of the people amount to chump change. Pocket money. Enough to pay bills, maybe.

So, I ask, exactly what wealth is being transferred to whom?

It’s a red herring.

#127 Dharma Bum on 03.15.21 at 9:19 am

Listed below, in the left column, you will find the percentile, and in the right column, you will find the Canadian dollar net worth required in order to reach that percentile.

10 $50,000.00
20 $185,000.00
30 $285,000.00
40 $400,000.00
50 $482,000.00
60 $582,000.00
70 $685,000.00
80 $780,000.00
90 $840,000.00
93 $900,000.00
94 $930,000.00
95 $980,000.00
97.5 $1,500,000.00
99 $9,737,000.00
99.5 $12,800,000.00
99.6 $14,000,000.00
99.7 $15,000,000.00
99.8 $20,000,000.00
99.9 $25,000,000.00
99.97 $30,000,000.00

#128 Stone on 03.15.21 at 9:25 am

#124 Kiril Peev on 03.15.21 at 8:34 am
Market update: There seems to be no let up in demand for homes even though mortgage rates have jumped recently. I spoke with a mortgage broker that I work with and he said the rates range from 2.0-2.3% for a fixed 5 year term for uninsured mortgages and 1.4% for variable closed 5 year mortgage. Seems like the jump in rates has been in the fixed segment. There should be a little softening in demand given the approximate 0.5% pop. On $500,000 that would add about $2500 in extra interest charges per year.

———

I’m curious. What is your after sales support when:

1) the deal falls through because the purchaser financing fell through days before the closing day.
2) the purchaser gets cold feet and decides to walk away from the deal (and of course wants their deposit back).
3) the seller purchased a new home before the prior home sale closes and now finds themselves stuck with bridge financing they cannot afford through a 3rd tier lender called Giovanni’s Leg Breakers.

#129 Phylis on 03.15.21 at 9:39 am

#112 Canuck on 03.14.21 at 11:31 pm
Off topic, but has anyone noticed the unusually large number of news articles about Mark Carney lately? I read three today, on climate change, globalism and a book deal. All this for a guy who should be in the Canadian news for … nothing.
Xxxxxxx
He’s shilling and pumping for his new job at Brookfield and his book. All aboard!

It feels like he is being groomed and prepped for a role in politics, maybe even a leadership role of a certain party.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.21 at 9:51 am

@#127 Dharma

Were you smoking a joint in my elevator?
Even the “kickass entrepreneur” link is skewed.

The top wealthy family quartile(?) 20% is 75 million Canadians????

Plese tell me where you buy your pot.

#131 maxx on 03.15.21 at 10:20 am

Reminds me somewhat of the film “The Quick and the Dead”. Real quick with the bleepy-bleepy keys, but also completely blind to the variables of likely future outcome, based on current Frankensteinian distortions in RE.

Millennials have got to be the slap-’em-silliest generation ever.

Affolé sans recours.

Wealth is and always will be built upon a foundation of more than just one pillar.

#132 Phylis on 03.15.21 at 10:33 am

Whoopsie, previous comment inserted in the wrong spot…

#133 Doug in London on 03.15.21 at 10:52 am

@Sail Away, post #19:
Yes, in order for buy low, sell high to actually work you have to buy low in the first place. It’s so idiot no brainer simple, I don’t know why everyone doesn’t do it.

#134 Sail Away on 03.15.21 at 11:08 am

#133 Doug in London on 03.15.21 at 10:52 am
@Sail Away, post #19:

Yes, in order for buy low, sell high to actually work you have to buy low in the first place. It’s so idiot no brainer simple, I don’t know why everyone doesn’t do it.

———–

Oh, we all know why it’s not done. Humans are programmed for apocalyptic doom and gloom, and when it appears financial apocalypse is nigh, the wagons are circled.

#135 Oshawa yeah on 03.15.21 at 11:19 am

Not to go off topic but speaking of the theatre of the absurd. For a year we’ve been locked down to keep from getting sick. Now we’re all told to get a shot that gives you a taste of the sickness, maybe including fever, which we quarantined to avoid for a year. Chances are the shot won’t kill you but chances are the virus wouldn’t have either. In fact, many would never have got the virus, or noticed they got it. So what was the point of the lockdown for the entire healthy population.

#136 The West on 03.15.21 at 11:22 am

“The virus caused our current delusion. When it goes, expect revolution.”

Long overdue.

“Free society” only lasts about 250 years at a time. It is an experiment that has failed every single time across every single history on the globe.

We’ve been on borrowed time for about 30 years. I know you don’t agree but, the 21st century is going to uglier than the 20th century was.

#137 Damifino on 03.15.21 at 11:46 am

#112 Canuck

…has anyone noticed the unusually large number of news articles about Mark Carney lately?
—————————–

Yep… tedious. I liked it better when he was invisible to us back in England.

Also, ever notice that 50% of Global News is composed of video of people getting vaccinated? And the same old background pictures over and over of models coughing or lying feverishly in bed.

Well, those pictures cost actual money, and I suppose one is a good as another when there isn’t an hour’s worth of real news to fill the airwaves every night.

#138 Jason on 03.15.21 at 11:51 am

Happy Birthday Garth!

#139 Kiril Peev on 03.15.21 at 12:11 pm

Stone,

In this market there should no issues with deals falling through in the last moment. Simply re-list and you should generate a higher selling price than what you originally closed at. Sold prices are appreciating between 1-3% per month in Ottawa depending on the property type and location.

In terms of purchasing a home before final closing on your existing home there is bridge financing etc. I personally recommend that my clients do not put themselves in a situation they can’t be ok with if their sale is delayed or canceled. This happens all the time. If you have good credit and haven’t extended yourself to the max it should not be a problem.

_________________________
#124 Kiril Peev on 03.15.21 at 8:34 am
Market update: There seems to be no let up in demand for homes even though mortgage rates have jumped recently. I spoke with a mortgage broker that I work with and he said the rates range from 2.0-2.3% for a fixed 5 year term for uninsured mortgages and 1.4% for variable closed 5 year mortgage. Seems like the jump in rates has been in the fixed segment. There should be a little softening in demand given the approximate 0.5% pop. On $500,000 that would add about $2500 in extra interest charges per year.

———

I’m curious. What is your after sales support when:

1) the deal falls through because the purchaser financing fell through days before the closing day.
2) the purchaser gets cold feet and decides to walk away from the deal (and of course wants their deposit back).
3) the seller purchased a new home before the prior home sale closes and now finds themselves stuck with bridge financing they cannot afford through a 3rd tier lender called Giovanni’s Leg Breakers.

#140 Lefty on 03.15.21 at 12:18 pm

#135 Oshawa yeah

==========

Totally agree. The money we spent locking down healthy people should have gone towards saving the vulnerable.

If COVID had happened 40 years ago no way we would have locked down;no PCR or Zoom.

#141 Tudval on 03.15.21 at 12:34 pm

In all this, rising mortgage debt is the only thing that *may be concerning to the objective eye. But even that.. didn’t the government tighten lending criteria, introduce stress test etc.. to make sure borrowers can afford to carry the debt at much higher rates? So what’s the problem? That they won’t have as much money left for dining out weekly and take long trips abroad? Guess what…

#142 Get vaxxed on 03.15.21 at 1:28 pm

#135 Oshawa yeah on 03.15.21 at 11:19 am
Not to go off topic but speaking of the theatre of the absurd. For a year we’ve been locked down to keep from getting sick. Now we’re all told to get a shot that gives you a taste of the sickness, maybe including fever, which we quarantined to avoid for a year. Chances are the shot won’t kill you but chances are the virus wouldn’t have either. In fact, many would never have got the virus, or noticed they got it. So what was the point of the lockdown for the entire healthy population.

———

To protect those who are at risk, including many in the ‘healthy’ population.

You assume recovering from covid and not dying from covid are equal, they are not. ‘Healthy’ people suffer long lasting effects from the virus.

You aren’t getting a ‘taste’ of the ‘sickness’ through vaccination. You’re getting an immunity primer from the ‘sickness’ so you don’t come down with and spread it to others.

#143 Michael in-north-york on 03.15.21 at 1:31 pm

#33 Not a chance. on 03.14.21 at 3:07 pm
Bitcoin is 100% finite and cannot be created past 21million coins, not even gold is finite. Big win for Bitcoin, big win for the average person that holds Bitcoin.

===
Bitcoin is finite. Cryptos as a whole are infinite, because a new crypto can be created at any time.

If bitcoin wasn’t just finite, but also unique, then it could be a good store of value. Price of 1 BTC = (combined size of all markets served by BTC) / 21,000,000 . As the ecomonies expand and the combined size of all markets grow, so would the value of 1 BTC.

Now, what if another crypto happens to be just a bit more convenient to use than BTC? Transactions shift to that other crypto, the BTC’s market shrinks, the value of 1 BTC shrinks as well.

No near-term predictions, the BTC might keep growing for a while. But long-term, owing BTC is a lottery.

Possibly, an ETF of cryptos is a better bet .. one shrinks, then another one grows instead.

#144 kc on 03.15.21 at 1:33 pm

137 Damifino on 03.15.21 at 11:46 am

Also, ever notice that 50% of Global News is composed of video of people getting vaccinated? And the same old background pictures over and over of models coughing or lying feverishly in bed.

XXXXXXXXXX

I solved the virus problem… I haven’t watched any NEWS in a year after i seen the BS coming down the pipe, and it is exactly what i figured would happen over the past year….

next will be the “green card” to enter and needed to keep your job….

#145 Robert38 on 03.15.21 at 2:00 pm

I am waiting since 2008. Prices are going up and up. Has been 13 years and nothing moves down. Do we have to live with this? Maybe prices will freeze? It is nuts but thats the world we live in it.

#146 Dr V on 03.15.21 at 2:04 pm

130 fartz – that had me puzzling a bit. But the figures Dharma posts at 127 seem in line with the PBO link. So lets discuss Dharmas’s point about the “wealth
transfer”.

From those figures, at somewhere less than 80% net
wealth will be $750k. At 97.5% it’s $1.5M. o that’s about 20% of the population that I’ve heard described
as the “mass affluent” which will be made up mostly of workers late in their career and younger retirees (Sorry mills)The figure includes RE
but I’m not sure about employee pensions.

Due to the much lower numbers, we can ignore the very wealthy.

But many of these “mass affluent” will be around for some time, working on spending their savings, finally leaving their heirs what’s left, splitting it among them, paying outstanding taxes, etc. So maybe starting in 10 years, and lasting about 25 years, this wealth will transfer to the gen Xers and mills. Much of that wealth will be in the form of RE. But is it a lot? In many cases, not really.

#147 IHCTD9 on 03.15.21 at 2:30 pm

#120 WTF on 03.14.21 at 12:40 pm
#101 Ponzie I know.
But I’m finished with them.
Not buying non stick frying pans from them anymore.
80% off, and after 1 months, you have to throw it out.
Can’t even recycle it.
When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

—————————————————

There is a reason its called Crappy Tire. Bought a pressure washer there. It broke in 1 hour. Took It back, they wouldnt take it. ” deal with the manufacturer” (which I had done already by calling the 1-800 ignore) I wouldn’t leave. Politely held my ground. Store manager finally relented just to get rid of me as customers were piling up. Got my $ back and left.

2 weeks later I got a call from India (pressure washer customer service) regarding my complaint. Was able to tell them their piece of junk was no longer my problem.
Cathartic…… and a valuable life lesson.
________

I just bought a Stihl “Yard Boss” with the power sweeper attachment because I’m sick of raking tons of gravel out of the lawn every spring, and thousands of cones in the fall. There is a $500.00 rip-off of this unit – but I paid the Stihl dealer $750.00 instead.

I once bought a POS 99.00 big box store RYOBI weed whacker. After experiencing ownership of that thing, I went out and bought a 400.00 Stihl. 100X better, a joy to own and operate. 10 years old now and still runs and looks like new. Never cursed at it even once. This was *MY* lesson.

No more Chinese crap for me, unless it’s a hammer, dinner plate, coat hanger etc… Every time I’ve paid the premium for top quality, I’ve never regretted it.

#148 Phylis on 03.15.21 at 3:24 pm

#143 Michael in-north-york on 03.15.21 at 1:31 pm
#33 Not a chance. on 03.14.21 at 3:07 pm
Bitcoin is 100% finite and cannot be created past 21million coins, not even gold is finite. Big win for Bitcoin, big win for the average person that holds Bitcoin.

===
Bitcoin is finite. Cryptos as a whole are infinite, because a new crypto can be created at any time.

If bitcoin wasn’t just finite, but also unique, then it could be a good store of value. Price of 1 BTC = (combined size of all markets served by BTC) / 21,000,000 . As the ecomonies expand and the combined size of all markets grow, so would the value of 1 BTC.

Now, what if another crypto happens to be just a bit more convenient to use than BTC? Transactions shift to that other crypto, the BTC’s market shrinks, the value of 1 BTC shrinks as well.

No near-term predictions, the BTC might keep growing for a while. But long-term, owing BTC is a lottery.

Possibly, an ETF of cryptos is a better bet .. one shrinks, then another one grows instead.

Xxxxxxxxxx

It can also fork again. Finite until decided otherwise.

#149 salty dawg on 03.15.21 at 4:25 pm

#71 NSNG on 03.14.21 at 7:09 pm:


And another lesson here is that until you really hate where you are, nothing is going to change.
=========================

That’s quite an inspirational comment you’ve written about the importance of setting believable goals, NSNG. Well done.

And belated Happy Birthday Garth!

#150 good2all on 03.15.21 at 11:04 pm

is it the virus that causes all these? maybe it is the st.p.d politician and CBankers. they have been irresponsibly printing the money while not be able to make policies to balance it out.

We are living in a world that everything has changed, everyone has some anxiety. It is very difficult to stay on the sideline, but it is even more difficult to join the party, since sane people don’t think this is right, from the bottom of their hearts. (yes, they have been slapped on their faces many times in last 8-10 years, so may be they are st.p.d)

#151 Al on 03.16.21 at 1:28 am

Saving $180k on 500k gross? That’s an abysmal savings rate with a cheapo apartment. Seems like a spending problem, not a house price problem . They should prolly stay away from 7 figure homes until they figure that out.

#152 Oshawa yeah on 03.16.21 at 4:31 am

#140 Lefty

Yeah. May wanna google yeadon pcr for more. You may already be familiar with Dr Mike Yeadon who was hounded off twitter for his views.
See also Plato’s cave myth.

#153 Oshawa yeah on 03.16.21 at 7:17 am

Get vaxxed. The CDC doesn’t claim the vaccine does what you purport it does. Google covid vaccine limitations site:.edu
Thanks

#154 Phylis on 03.16.21 at 9:22 am

One thing I can tell you, with Chip, Acorn and the recent fear due to the state of care facilities, our elders will not be moving anywhere by their own volition. The chatter says I’m staying at home. So much for supply.

#155 Doug in London on 03.16.21 at 11:07 am

@Sail Away, post #34:
I still don’t get it, and never will. I’ve seen people get up early and wait outside in the cold before stores open so they can be the first to rush in and scoop up those deals on Black Friday or Boxing Day. By contrast, I’m not only lazy but too much of a wuss or pansy to get up and bear the cold like that. By contrast, I liked being able to sleep in, then in the temperature controlled comfort of my home log on to my Windows computer, right here, and was able to scoop up some AMAZING deals a year ago from this month.

Oh, how I wish I could have jumped into the time machine with Dr. Emmett Brown and Marty McFly, gone back to March 2009 and scooped up even more deals than I did back then. However, the laws of nature forbid backwards time travel, so that’s not an option. However, a year ago I was able to do the next best thing and, just like 11 years earlier scoop up some more AMAZING deals.

I think if you have too much knowledge you over analyze the situation when stocks go on sale and come up with excuses for not buying. It’s called paralysis by analysis. By contrast, I’m a dumb hick, a hayseed who failed a basic college financial course. Paradoxically, that works to my advantage because I see the obvious and dive right in when more sophisticated investors are too worried to make such a move. It’s another example of that time proven Occam’s Razor principle.