I’ve made a huge mistake

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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One of my favourite TV shows in recent years has been Arrested Development. This hilarious program centered on an odd and dysfunctional family, the Bluths. From this motley crew, Gob Bluth, the eldest son and magician of the family, is my favourite character in part due to his signature line, “I’ve made a huge mistake”. He would say this line repeatedly as he made a lot of mistakes and I feel it’s very appropriate right now for some home buyers.

  I believe many of the people moving out of the city core and into the suburbs in search of a bigger home, a backyard for the new dog and a room for the Peloton bike are going to be repeating this line (‘I’ve made a huge mistake’) in the coming months and years as we get vaccinated and reach herd immunity.

Many people are making these life-changing decisions based on a pandemic that is temporary in nature. I believe six months after we reach herd immunity, employers will be asking their employees to come back into the office. Many fleeing out to the suburbs are under the impression they will be working from home for years to come but may be pretty bummed out when they have to return to the office and their commute goes from the bathroom to their spare bedroom/office to an hour ride on the train or in the car.

I believe these Covid-induced moves are definitely contributing to the recent insanity in the markets.

Both prices and sales activity nationally have been off the charts in recent months. According to the January market update from the CREA, sales were up 35% Y/Y in January and the average national sale price of homes in Canada is up 23% Y/Y. That’s crazy given the cloud of the global pandemic and all the economic carnage that it has brought.

Home Sales Have Surged in Recent Months

Source: CREA

It’s clearly not fundamentals that are driving this housing market surge as: 1) the job market blows with the unemployment rate still at a high 9.4%; 2) immigration slowed to a crawl last year (184k new immigrants in 2020 down from 341k in 2019); and 3) home prices are up over 20% Y/Y so clearly there’s no bargains right now.

Well, what is driving this insane housing market?

Easy, record low interest rates!

My father would often say, “Son, when I bought my first home my mortgage rate was 18%!” Well dad you were born in the wrong decade as today you can get mortgage rates for 1.8% and lower. It’s not much more complicated than that.

Below I chart the MLS Composite Home Price Index for the Canadian housing market with the Government of Canada (GoC) 5-year bond yield. This is always the most important interest rate to follow as 5-year fixed mortgage rates are based off this level.

Notice two important trends. First, the long-term trendline of interest rates (dotted green line) and the long-term rise in the Home Price Index (blue line). People always ask me why home prices keep going up and I just continue to point to the trend of declining interest rates. Second, on a shorter term basis, note the big drop in the GoC 5-year yield since early 2020 when the pandemic hit. It dropped like a stone from 1.5% to a low of 0.3%. Not surprisingly, this has completely corresponded with this swift and strong increase in home sales and prices.

Declining Interest Rates Has Helped Drive the Canadian Housing Market Higher

Source: MLS, Bloomberg, Turner Investments

With home prices up over 20% Y/Y and prices hitting new all-time highs, the obvious question is, can this continue or will prices deflate faster than Piers Morgan’s career?

I’m in the latter camp and here’s why:

  • First, interest rates have bottomed and will slowly move higher as the economy and inflation pick up. We’ve already seen the GoC 5-year yield nearly double in recent weeks and this is just the start. I could see the GoC 5-year yield easily hit 1.5-2.5% over the next few years. If declining interest rates have been the main driver of our housing bubble, then rising rates should take some of the bloom off this rose.
  • Second, with the big move up in home prices, affordability has deteriorated and is now back at early 1990 levels, when the last major housing downturn occurred.
  • Third, the Canadian home ownership rate sits near a multi-decade high of 67%. Meaning, most people who can afford or want a home are already in the housing market.
  • Lastly, rent prices have dropped the most in decades, making the rent/own debate a tougher call. According to the rental property website, Rentals.ca, the average rental price nationally is down 8.7% Y/Y and here in Toronto is down a staggering 22% Y/Y. Our head trader just rented a 1 bedroom plus den in a hip downtown condo for $2,150 including parking and storage, which would have gone for $2,700 pre-Covid. Renting is looking a lot more attractive these days.

Now to conclude, I’m not calling for some massive crash in the Canadian housing market as that would require significantly higher interest rates, which I don’ t believe is in the cards, in the medium term at least. But I do see interest rates moving higher as the economy and inflation pick up, which should help to take some froth out this unprecedented bull market in Canadian home prices.

RBC Housing Affordability for Canada

Source: RBC Economics
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

124 comments ↓

#1 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 03.13.21 at 9:44 am

Big gains already made in Canadian oil and Uranium.

Lots more to come.

Don’t miss out.

#2 TurnerNation on 03.13.21 at 9:45 am

Super early post – in which timezone is this weblog ;)

Weekends are a good time for reflection. On the future. What would Smoking Man tell us. To beware of all the Blue Checkmark people on the social media. These people have all sold out as gatekeepers.

………………
Coming soon to all the Former First World Countries. This is why our leaders praise this China system. CV rules are the training for this, lots of training and compliance. Already your fellow citizens are enforcing CV rules upon you. Soon they may relax. The A.I. will be ready.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/china-social-credit-a-model-citizen-in-a-digital-dictatorship/10200278?nw=0
Dandan doesn’t object to the prospect of life under the state’s all-seeing surveillance network.

The 36-year-old knows social credit is not a perfect system but believes it’s the best way to manage a complex country with the world’s biggest population.

“I think people in every country want a stable and safe society,” she says.
“If, as our government says, every corner of public space is installed with cameras, I’ll feel safe.”

She’s also likely to benefit from the system.
Dandan’s financial behaviour will be an important measure for the national social credit score.

Under an existing financial credit scheme called Sesame Credit, Dandan has a very high score of 770 out of 800 — she is very much the loyal Chinese citizen.

………………………..

Now you also know why everyone is telling your to stay/be safe. 24/7 safety has a price. It means living inside a prison, electronic one or otherwise. The more you use this language the more you normalize it inside your head. Having Freedom is just too dangerous
(It’s why Kanadian culture has been erased. CFL football is cancelled. The Leafs and Blue Jays barred and removed from the country. Why gatherings, travel, cultural and religious events are banned. We’re only one year into this rollout…stand by. Only the new global CV rules matter in your life. It is your goal: work, taxes, CV rules. Please comply citizen it will be much easier on you and your family if you do. For your health)

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 9:49 am

“I’m not calling for some massive crash in the Canadian housing market as that would require significantly higher interest rates, which I don’ t believe is in the cards, in the medium term at least. ”

++++

Fair enough.
Inflation aside.
Are you concerned that if the “known unknown” Trudeau Liberals continue to daily burn through billions in cash leading up to an election……our debt will reach such exorbitant levels, our dollar will tank…. forcing the BoC to raise rates to be seen to be doing something to “back the dollar”?

#4 Dave on 03.13.21 at 9:56 am

Arrested development ; my all time favourite show..”No touching !!”

Indulge me a little ; I agree the prices are total nonsense. But all real estate is local. Montreal for instance home ownership is closer to 50 percent ; we love to rent in la belle province; therefore there is room for people to get embark on the property ladder. Even if the rates do go up ; would the stress test that the banks use not provide enough margin to dampen a crash ?

Finally if there is a crash to the tune of 30 percent ; and your house went up 40 percent in the last two years; would you not be unscathed ?

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 9:57 am

TurnerNation

“Dandan doesn’t object to the prospect of life under the state’s all-seeing surveillance network.”

++++

Dandan must be compliant or she will lose her job, her housing, her medical access, her travel permits, etc etc etc.

It gets better.
China is now having another mass purge of the State Police to “root out corruption and improper thought” six years after the first “corruption” purge.

Emperor Xi demands complete obedience as he heads into his second decade as leader.
Xi will be the first leader since Mao not to step down after 10 years of rule.
He is creating his own legacy where dissent of any kind from anyone will not be tolerated..

https://www.economist.com/china/2021/03/01/chinas-domestic-security-agencies-are-undergoing-a-massive-purge

#6 Prince Polo on 03.13.21 at 10:06 am

Don’t forget – there’s always money in the banana stand!

#7 Ordinary Blog Dog on 03.13.21 at 10:07 am

Amazing that this could come together and result in excessive home buying and higher interest rates – during a pandemic. You would think an economy squeeze would result in lower interest rates ultimately, but stimulus bailout is powerful. Thanks for the opinion on ‘no crash’ occurring, I have been wondering about this. Thanks.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 10:07 am

An excellent article from the Asian Times about the looming “corruption/loyalty purges” in China.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-officials-run-for-cover-as-Xi-Jinping-prepares-another-brutal-purge

#9 Dominoes Lining Up on 03.13.21 at 10:08 am

Ryan – did you see this news just now? Wow.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/richmond-hill-development-limbo-1.5947613

“Toronto woman’s life savings in limbo as new owner of townhouse development refuses to honour agreements”

“Dozens of pre-construction buyers are in limbo after they received a letter from Ideal’s lawyer last month informing them that Ideal transferred the land at the corner of Yonge Street and Jefferson Side Road to another company last summer — and the new developer has started marketing the units they already bought years ago at much higher prices. ”

Apart from the fact that in the future these people will realize how LUCKY(!) they are to have lost their units (assuming they do get the full deposit payback which seems certain), this seems like a profound red flag for a bubble market.

I expect this story will gain a lot of traction and may spur more reflection about the crazy market right now.

Buying overpriced pre-con townhouses in the 905 – what could possibly go wrong, eh?

For now, please send this poor lady some kleenex, though….

#10 Dogman01 on 03.13.21 at 10:13 am

My wife and I have a policy, no big decisions or serious contemplation during Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb. It is dark and cold, your brain chemicals are in a weird hibernation\famine\scarcity mode.
Only in the last 200 years have could Humans say cycles of nature were less influential, so evolution of 50,000 years living in nature trumps 200 years of affluence.

Our brains are a “Clown Car” driven by emotions with the rational side occasionally shouting out directions and stressing that we should have turned left at the last intersection.

Indeed 6 month of WFH in a crisis should not be your barometer.

#11 VGRO and chill on 03.13.21 at 10:15 am

Don’t worry Ryan, there’s always money in the banana stand…

Jokes aside, yes, it’s hard to think of a worse time to buy a home in Canadian history. Prices are through the roof, interest rates are at rock bottom lows, and the individual RE markets are turbulent with so much uncertainty in the near term. If the golden rule of investing is “buy low, sell high” – it seems people are not only ignoring basic price signals, but also ignoring this rule.

Right now we rent. It is bliss. If something breaks, I send a text and my landlord fixes it, while I put my feet up and read an ebook. There is the “pride of ownership,” sure, but there is also the bliss of having somebody else working for you to maintain your home.

#12 TurnerNation on 03.13.21 at 10:16 am

The Economic Shutdown. Here’s why some people as yet do not realize or believe we are in a Global WW3. Because its weapons are the Silent ones, people say.

– “Distancing” is the greatest social and economic weapon ever unleased upon the Former First World Countries.
It ensures that the small footprint stores, bars, clubs, restaraunts – the cultural hotbeds – never may reopen or fully. No money may be made, at 50% capacity. Which in why all 2019 we were sold so hard on Ghost Kitchens, why Uber and Lyft (food delivery) stocks IPOd. The Long Game. We are the product in this New System, tax farm animals to be herded and controlled and milked for profit. Big Tech and Big Pharma and Big Banks are licking their chops.

– Kanada has no budget and record debt. By design.
– Most people have no budget and record debt.
– Inflation: seen the food, building supply and gasoline prices lately? Your COLA won’t cut it. Need a stronger beverage.

– The most vunerable are being targeted by the global CV rules aka New System: children no longer are alloyed playing, extra cirricular activities.
– Old and hospitalized people must be locked up without human contact. You may be allowed in the same room, if you are dressed to Level 3 biohazard facility rules. No touching. Too dangerous.
This all is enforced by the regular people – trying just to keep their jobs and keep up with crippling inflation and debt rates.

– 24/7 State-sponsored programming (and it is) on the CBC (Corona Broadcasting Corporation) and CP24 (CoronaPulse 24)

– This is Big Business: Into the Blockchain you will go, DNA and all. (It’s been collected for years. At first in the 90’s, forced samples were taken from those people arrested/jailed. Then we willingly began mailing it in.) Where it likely will be edited then put back into ya. Who knows these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing

– Did ya notice that Iceland’s CV testing company is a Gentics company?
https://www.decode.com/company/

……
Normally I would not mention or look at that Red & Blue media service which rhymes with ‘Pebble’. Most of its (heavily edited) videos resemble a WWE match. Rock ’em Sock ’em.
But the interviews with pub and restaurant owners in Alberta…in those videos their own words speak volumes and are worth a watch.

#13 Yannick on 03.13.21 at 10:20 am

@Ryan

Final Countdown for the housing bull market? How would this affect the TSX?

#14 KNOW IT ALL on 03.13.21 at 10:21 am

We already know this Ryan.
Have you not been reading the Greaterfool blog everyday?

New content please.

#15 Drill Baby Drill on 03.13.21 at 10:22 am

Thank You Ryan sage advice.

#16 SW on 03.13.21 at 10:26 am

Nobody should fret about Mr. P. Morgan.

His TV flounce is what is known as a good career move. It will get him first name recognition.

Remember, “I’m mad as heck and I’m not going to take it anymore!” is a cri de coeur for many older gents.

He’ll be back. He feels your pain.

#17 Dominoes Lining Up on 03.13.21 at 10:28 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/richmond-hill-development-limbo-1.5947613

Noted as well – this developer snafu exposes the risk involved in assignment sales, where those often very large extra payments/fees may not be refunded as part of the deposit to developers in cases where the whole property is flipped to another developer.

Could be enough to make many give a long pause before “investing” in properties like this.

#18 Steven Rowlandson on 03.13.21 at 10:35 am

Two things are a big mistake. Believing that a man without land is nothing and therefore real estate prices have no limit and should have no limit. Secondly having preferential tax and interest rate policies for mortgages, real estate profits and government debt. Debt = inflation and there is much inflation in the economy due to credit creation through contracting debt and little over all debt repayment. Wage suppression makes methodical debt reduction less likely and a debt crisis more likely.

#19 Hugh G. Misteak on 03.13.21 at 10:39 am

“In case you weren’t convinced that the price of homes in Toronto is skyrocketing, then look no further than this Toronto house that just sold for a jaw-dropping $620,000 over asking.

The house, located at 17 Linnsmore Crescent in the Danforth neighbourhood, was listed on March 9 for $1,599,000. It sold just two days later for a whopping $2,219,000.”

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/toronto-house-sold-620000-over-asking

__________________________________

Move along, folks. Nothing to see here … except blatant greed and stupidity.

More importantly. .. who financed this? They should be concerned as well.

#20 Rosco on 03.13.21 at 10:45 am

I think I read somewhere that the bond market value is 7x’s bigger than the equities market value.
If the economic actors rotate out of public debt and into private assets then this could explain the upside potential of all things real like houses, stocks, commodities ect.
With the relatively low interest rates and the central banks printing ,the smart money should go where there could be a 7 bagger compared to public debt upside.
It is a loss of confidence in government debt yields vrs, the inflation potential of privately owned assets.
Nobody believes the consumer price index but many believe other government propaganda.

#21 Bert on 03.13.21 at 10:55 am

Many employer surveys are showing the opposite of what you’re saying. Employers are saying they expect less than 60% of employees to return to the office.

As for real estate. This isn’t 1990. After the ECB announced more bond buying the FED will likely follow to push down the belly of the curve. The BOC will follow the FED or do nothing. The move in yields will likely slow down or flatten as will the rise in home prices. Until the next shock that sends bond yields down again…

#22 Bert on 03.13.21 at 10:57 am

You can’t put the cat back into the bag. WFH will be used to retain top talent etc going forward. It’s win – win for employee / employer. I don’t see how you guys don’t see this.

#23 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:06 am

#11 VGRO and chill on 03.13.21 at 10:15 am

Right now we rent. It is bliss. If something breaks, I send a text and my landlord fixes it, while I put my feet up and read an ebook.

————–

Home ownership can be the same, depending who you are. In our house, if something breaks, my wife lets me know and I fix it while she puts her feet up and reads an ebook.

It’s a good unofficial arrangement. I fix the manly stuff, she takes care of most of the household stuff. If we rented, we’d probably squabble about who dries the dishes.

Also, when something breaks in our house it’s often a hokey bandaid from the previous owner (s) and I get to fix it properly and there is satisfaction in that. We call the previous owners ‘Skippy’, as in: ‘Oooh, that’s the problem. Skippy worked on this.’

#24 Vancouverite on 03.13.21 at 11:07 am

RBC’s website shows their posted promotional 5 year fixed mortgage rate is now 2.39%. Last week it was 2.24%. Last month was 1.99%. Rates creeping up.

Some with 90-130 days locked in pre-approved rates may be tempted to rush and buy before their expiry dates.

In my workplace office (yes, most in our department have been going into office since pandemic), the conversations often include:
Rising housing prices,
How to move up from condo to house,
How to help their kids buy a home,
Rent is throwing money away

#25 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.13.21 at 11:16 am

Best thing to come out of this experience is that now everybody knows the pre-CoViD19 days are nothing more than a diary entry and never coming back.

Embrace this built in obsolescence and take whatever you can out of the system.

Welcome to No Country For Old Men

#26 jal on 03.13.21 at 11:19 am

I’m so glad that I cannot see “tomorrow”

I got so little to lose that I would not notice the lost.

I, also, could use some “printed money” to play with.

#27 Doug t on 03.13.21 at 11:19 am

I would love to see a massive crash to the Canadian Zombie housing market – bring on a 50% crash and all that goes with it – this beast has been feeding on souls for 40 years – there’s only one way to kill a zombie – lock and load

#28 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:20 am

My favourite ‘Skippy’ fix to date:

We received a $2,400 water bill, so went on the search and discovered a broken water service in the front yard. This had clearly happened before in this same spot, because Skippy had fixed it:

The copper water service was spliced with a section of garden hose, connected securely with a half dozen hose clamps, then wrapped in a carpet remnant for abrasion protection, all encased in the finest of black garbage bags secured with secondhand lamp cord.

Strangely, the usual duct tape was missing. Go figure.

#29 Ryan Lewenza on 03.13.21 at 11:32 am

Bert “You can’t put the cat back into the bag. WFH will be used to retain top talent etc going forward. It’s win – win for employee / employer. I don’t see how you guys don’t see this.”

Sure some people will work from home or we’ll see a hybrid model (ie 2 days at home and 3 days in the office) but many, many workers will return to the office. You’re only looking at the costs and flexibility of working from home. You’re not considering things like 1) lower productivity, 2) less teamwork and collaboration, 3) the strain emotionally of not interacting with people and being shut-in, 4) the human interaction element of advancing at work and promotions. It’s much more complicated than just companies saving $$. So yes we see a lot of workers returning to the office, or put differently, employers requiring much of their staff to return to the office. – Ryan L

#30 justice on 03.13.21 at 11:35 am

We all make mistakes, like getting scammed by a developer who is betting on a future globalized GTHA megapolis:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/richmond-hill-development-limbo-1.5947613

Good luck getting back that money in a judgment, while the condo you planned to buy is over 50 stories high and owned by a numbered Ontario corp. from Russia.

#31 Robin Seth on 03.13.21 at 11:41 am

Not predicting a crash? According to this blog, canadian housing has been overvalued for over a decade. Only a crash can would justify that prediction!

#32 Ryan Lewenza on 03.13.21 at 11:50 am

crowdedelevatorfartz “Are you concerned that if the “known unknown” Trudeau Liberals continue to daily burn through billions in cash leading up to an election……our debt will reach such exorbitant levels, our dollar will tank…. forcing the BoC to raise rates to be seen to be doing something to “back the dollar”?”

I’m no fan of T2 or his out of control spending/deficits but all countries are doing the same thing so I don’t buy the argument that our dollar will tank due to T2 policies. Currencies are always relative so you have to consider what the US, Europe, Japan etc. are doing as well. – Ryan L

#33 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 11:57 am

What shall a 31 year old do with a pile of cash made over the last year? Registered accounts are maxed out. It’s going to be another high income year.

Certainly unwilling to play the real estate game in Greater Vancouver. Family is up in Northern BC with prices ticking up year-after-year. I can easily wait it out another year and see how this all plays out…

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 12:13 pm

#11 VGRO
Right now we rent. It is bliss. If something breaks, I send a text and my landlord fixes it, while I put my feet up and read an ebook. There is the “pride of ownership,” sure, but there is also the bliss of having somebody else working for you to maintain your home.
——————————-
I’ve done my share of renting and I see both side of the equation.
Right now I’m owning and my unrealized capital gains gains are quite tasty.
However, there are a few things that need fixing right now and it would be nice just to phone the landlady and get it taking care off.
So, today, on a sunny day, when me and my lovely wife should be out walking on the beach, I’m off to HomeDepot.
I have to say, though, some landladies can be difficult.

#35 Leftover on 03.13.21 at 12:14 pm

#22 Bert

“You can’t put the cat back into the bag. WFH will be used to retain top talent etc going forward. It’s win – win for employee / employer. I don’t see how you guys don’t see this.”
_________________________________________

I completely agree, though the key to your point is “top talent”, who largely make their own hours anyway in most settings.

They’re the ones that drive the work for others to do which, still, gets done better by teams working under the same roof. I think this is the hybrid that most employers are looking forward to.

#36 mark on 03.13.21 at 12:29 pm

How can one stress test your portfolio and estimate the maximum drawdown, based on its ETF composition?

I don’t think a lot of people realize with market bubbles, what their in store for?

#37 Saquib S on 03.13.21 at 12:30 pm

So I just bought a house, I could secure a 5 year fixed rate at 1.72% but bank is really trying to make the closed variable attractive at 1.3% with $2500 cashback. What would you guys pick?….

#38 Toronto_CA on 03.13.21 at 12:37 pm

I thought this was going to be about the Greater Fool’s insistance that WFH is a fad that will end.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/12/rishi-sunak-says-return-normal-office-working-pandemic-will/

“Rishi Sunak has said a full return to the office after the pandemic will “probably not” happen, pointing to emerging trends such as hybrid working and “hotdesking” in local serviced offices.

The Chancellor said that working from home was obviously the “big unknown” to have emerged from Covid-19, with even small changes in people’s weekly patterns having “big implications” on the economy.

He added that a regular commuter choosing to spend one day per week working from home meant 20 per cent fewer people travelling on public transport, with knock-on effects for places such as cafes and rail companies.”

I guess the Chancellor is wrong on this? My office just confirmed that all 5000 of us will only be expected to be in 2 or 3 days a week going forward, and are reducing office space to 60% of current amount. This is to keep in line with competitors.

The implications are huge, and anyone who believes that we’re going back to 5 days a week from the office is incorrect and ignorant of the world.

#39 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 12:40 pm

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 12:13 pm

So, today, on a sunny day, when me and my lovely wife should be out walking on the beach…

———–

What wife?

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 12:52 pm

@#33 Numb
“I can easily wait it out another year and see how this all plays out…”
+++

Invest in non registered and wait it out.

I’m also maxed out in registered and have dumped wads into non registered.
I refuse to jump into a real estate frenzy that has all the makings of a disaster in the next 12 months.

#41 Tripp on 03.13.21 at 12:56 pm

“ Canada’s housing market not in a bubble yet: BMO senior economist”

The show must go on…

#42 theoryAndPractice on 03.13.21 at 1:04 pm

#19 Hugh G. Misteak on 03.13.21 at 10:39 am

You are right.

Virus ate whatever that might be between two ears.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-have-synchronized-meaning-bubble-risk-just-soared/

#43 VGRO and chill on 03.13.21 at 1:06 pm

#23 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:06 am
#11 VGRO and chill on 03.13.21 at 10:15 am

Right now we rent. It is bliss. If something breaks, I send a text and my landlord fixes it, while I put my feet up and read an ebook.

————–

Home ownership can be the same, depending who you are. In our house, if something breaks, my wife lets me know and I fix it while she puts her feet up and reads an ebook.

It’s a good unofficial arrangement. I fix the manly stuff, she takes care of most of the household stuff. If we rented, we’d probably squabble about who dries the dishes.

Also, when something breaks in our house it’s often a hokey bandaid from the previous owner (s) and I get to fix it properly and there is satisfaction in that. We call the previous owners ‘Skippy’, as in: ‘Oooh, that’s the problem. Skippy worked on this.’

——

My dad was a homeowner. He had great pride in his home, including:
– sanding every fence board down and re-staining it (55 foot lot, do the math)
– same with the deck boards
– shingling roofs
– painting wooden window frames, replacing windows
– painting wooden siding
– finishing the basement
– closing up the “family room”, converting it back into a garage
– paying close to 100k in today’s dollars to renovate 2 bathrooms, kitchen, one bedroom into a bathroom, flooring on two floors, etc
– Replacing sunken front steps
– Repouring front driveway concrete
– hand picking weeds out of the lawns
– steaming the carpets twice a year
– replacing the furnace
– painting walls every couple years
– replacing all appliances at least once
– cutting down at least two large trees
– lots of landscaping work / gardening

It really just comes down to how you want to spend your time. Money can be replaced, time cannot. I did not grow up dreaming of looking after a building as the best possible way to spend my limited amount of recreational hours on planet earth. I have better things to do. He, was a smoker and busybody. Do the math. Always needed to be “productive.” Got all wound up and anxious if he sat around too much. Has barely read a book in 20 years. It’s a personality type thing, I guess.

#44 Dolce Vita on 03.13.21 at 1:27 pm

I like it.

A lot.

Liked the bond chart. Yield vs. Home Asset Value instead of Face Value. Nearly inverse. Slick.

Garth mentioned the other day that apartments being snapped up by investors that can see a post-pandemic demand in Toronto. You added rents low.

Maybe, just maybe, a market to rent to those where the commute is just too long during the week? [Alleviate buyer remorse]

Never say never in just another Covid-19* day on Planet Earth.

———————

*New variant found in Asia and as usual from a Japanese National returning home this time from the Philippines (the Philippines did report a new variant apparently). Not much known about it yet other than they think it’s bad (CYA in the meantime just in case & use Google Translate).

https://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/scoperta-nuova-variante-virus-dalle-filippine-11d40ed0-298f-4a01-bcfa-e869198c48c8.html?refresh_ce

————–

NFT World

For the modest of wallet wishing to own their own blockchain Ethereum token set of a meagre number of pixels just went for $44,187.99 USD:

https://twitter.com/cryptopunksbot/status/1370743285581496323

An homage to SMOKING MAN [Punk 5973] – RIP.

#45 Handyman on 03.13.21 at 1:37 pm

#11 VGRO
Right now we rent. It is bliss. If something breaks, I send a text and my landlord fixes it, while I put my feet up and read an ebook. There is the “pride of ownership,” sure, but there is also the bliss of having somebody else working for you to maintain your home.
——————————
I’ve done my share of renting and I see both side of the equation.
Right now I’m owning and my unrealized capital gains gains are quite tasty.
However, there are a few things that need fixing right now and it would be nice just to phone the landlady and get it taking care off.
So, today, on a sunny day, when me and my lovely wife should be out walking on the beach, I’m off to HomeDepot.
I have to say, though, some landladies can be difficult.

___________________________

Might I suggest the hybrid option …. where the landlady IS your wife! Best of both worlds. After she is done fixing things for you, you can show her your handyman skills.

#46 Handyman on 03.13.21 at 1:42 pm

#28 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:20 am
My favourite ‘Skippy’ fix to date:

We received a $2,400 water bill, so went on the search and discovered a broken water service in the front yard. This had clearly happened before in this same spot, because Skippy had fixed it:

The copper water service was spliced with a section of garden hose, connected securely with a half dozen hose clamps, then wrapped in a carpet remnant for abrasion protection, all encased in the finest of black garbage bags secured with secondhand lamp cord.

Strangely, the usual duct tape was missing. Go figure.

______________________________

You need to use shag carpet for this fix!

#47 Dolce Vita on 03.13.21 at 1:46 pm

NFT World or Just Another Covid-19 day on Planet Earth.

Besides the SMOKING MAN [Punk 5973] – RIP set of pixels having just sold, any MOISTER wishing to own that sweet memory of their archetypal HIPSTER days all for themselves…well, too late, too late, it just sold a few minutes ago for 36 ETH ($69,026.04 USD):

https://twitter.com/cryptopunksbot/status/1370804955456679940

I would expect that buyer:

0x67b7e2

was just tickled plaid at their acquisition from now wealthier

0xce3ecc

the seller.

————–

NFT World, over & out.

[If they have a Boomer one, I wonder if it will look like Garth? a.k.a, 5475726e6572]

#48 Harry on 03.13.21 at 1:54 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 03.13.21 at 9:45 am
Super early post – in which timezone is this weblog ;)

Weekends are a good time for reflection. On the future. What would Smoking Man tell us.
—————————————–

Just his daily gibberish.

#49 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 2:31 pm

#46 Handyman on 03.13.21 at 1:42 pm
#28 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:20 am

My favourite ‘Skippy’ fix to date:

———–

You need to use shag carpet for this fix!

———–

Haha

#50 Dolce Vita on 03.13.21 at 2:36 pm

Vax Italia

Just out:

Mario Draghi and General Figliuolo (latter same job as the ever competent, charismatic Cdn Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin) change pace on the vaccination campaign:

500,000 doses/Day and an army of doctors.

https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/cronache/cambia-campagna-vaccinale-500mila-somministrazioni-giorno-e-1930859.html

——————-

They’ll need more than than an army just to get thru the 70 yr olds any time soon, that Covid didn’t kill, if the 80 yr old vax effort was any indication.

– general practitioners, sports doctors, pharmacists, dentists and trainees, about 127,000 professionals (seems doable, about 4 jabs/day/prof).
– 1,733 vaccination points (also doable, about 290 jabs/day/vax point, 36/hour in the entire nation, 8 hr day)

Ya. They might just get thru vaxing the 70 yr olds by 2022 in Geriatric Italia.

#51 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 2:46 pm

#9 Dominoes Lining Up on 03.13.21 at 10:08 am
Ryan – did you see this news just now? Wow.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/richmond-hill-development-limbo-1.5947613

“Toronto woman’s life savings in limbo as new owner of townhouse development refuses to honour agreements”
— –

Looks to me like she’s got a problem. She paid 100 grand to buy a presale, 80 grand of that was a premium to the previous owner of the presale, 20k was to cover the original deposit. This deal did not happen with either of the developers involved, it was a “side deal”.

If the law allows the new developer to exit the deal with previous POS agreements as long as they return the deposits, then she will be out 80k, plus the equity increase over 5 years.

IMHO, the best ruling the courts could make is that the new developer should either honour the existing agreements, or pay the deposit, plus a prorated percentage of the equity increase since the POS was signed by the original buyer. Either way, the 80k premium she paid the previous owner is toast. How could you hold a developer responsible for “side deals” made by their POS agreement holders?

#52 Big mistake is right on 03.13.21 at 3:07 pm

As someone that has had a WFH career for 25 years that could work from hicksville without issue you could not pay me to leave the city for the burbs. I do feel sorry for the poor slobs buying a covid induced home purchase right now.

The problem of housing affordibility lies squarely on the shoulders of central bankers. The BoC starting the inflation wave in 2009 when they unnessarily dropped rates as they followed the FED like a little pubby. They never brought them back to historical norms so now there could be a massive 1980’s quality dump if they ever have the guts to raise them.

Thankfully a paradigm shift is happening, away from the Fed or any central banker. A new asset class that cannot be printed like worthless paper currency. Watch Bitcoin and Blockchain monetary networks explode in value.

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 3:14 pm

#23 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:06 am

Also, when something breaks in our house it’s often a hokey bandaid from the previous owner (s) and I get to fix it properly and there is satisfaction in that. We call the previous owners ‘Skippy’, as in: ‘Oooh, that’s the problem. Skippy worked on this.’
——

Ah, welcome to my life. My place turns 151 this year. There has not been a repair or renovation that hasn’t required twice the work it should have been yet. It’s so regular, my MO has turned to “just tear it all out” during the planning stage.

The place cost me 123k though, so I repair and renovate with a smile…

#54 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 3:24 pm

#51 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 2:46 pm

Re: woman losing POS cash

———–

A lot of life’s success depends not as much on making big wins, but instead avoiding big losses.

This is one reason learning over time by making many small mistakes is so useful.

#55 cuke and tomato picker on 03.13.21 at 3:26 pm

My grandfather told me that renting is like paying for a dead horse it is the same thing as every year my wife and I have to do with holding tax on our rifs. We rented for 6 months after our marriage and then bought 3 homes with
very good producing cherry orchards The homes ranged from 2 thousand to 54 hundred sq. ft. Made money on both the cherries and the property. Now live on a city lot in a 1836 sq.ft. house one level with a two car garage and debt free for 38 years.The charmed life.

#56 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.13.21 at 3:33 pm

#38 Toronto_CA

I work for a high end millwork and cabinet shop in KW.

Over the last year, we’ve been busier than ever refurbishing common areas in all the major office buildings in the region- including the insurance businesses and tech companies.

I’ve seen the massive amounts of money companies are putting into their facilities.

Trust me- most people will be going back most of the time.

#57 Man ... on 03.13.21 at 3:35 pm

#28 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:20 am
My favourite ‘Skippy’ fix to date:
We received a $2,400 water bill, so went on the search and discovered a broken water service in the front yard. This had clearly happened before in this same spot, because Skippy had fixed it:
The copper water service was spliced with a section of garden hose, connected securely with a half dozen hose clamps, then wrapped in a carpet remnant for abrasion protection, all encased in the finest of black garbage bags secured with secondhand lamp cord.
Strangely, the usual duct tape was missing. Go figure.
———————————-
you must have bought my friends place … that is a proper Surrey fix right there …

#58 ABCxyz on 03.13.21 at 3:36 pm

DELETED

#59 Drinking on 03.13.21 at 3:57 pm

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz

No wonder Xi and Putin are buddies, same ideology, if one wishes to call it that!

Harper makes a solid argument on what he sees the future will bring between the powers at heed!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/former-pm-stephen-harper-sees-new-cold-war-this-time-between-u-s-and-china-1.5346247

#60 Loonie Doctor on 03.13.21 at 4:02 pm

#32 Mark

Stress tester for portfolio drawdowns. I am sure there are more professional ones out there, but I made one for Canada. About 30 years of data.

https://www.looniedoctor.ca/investment-portfolio-historical-returns/

I also made a 2000 crash simulator called the Investin Intesinal Fortitude Tester.

https://www.looniedoctor.ca/investing-risk-tolerance-tool/

-LD

#61 Looking Up on 03.13.21 at 4:10 pm

53 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 3:14 pm
#23 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:06 am

Also, when something breaks in our house it’s often a hokey bandaid from the previous owner (s) and I get to fix it properly and there is satisfaction in that. We call the previous owners ‘Skippy’, as in: ‘Oooh, that’s the problem. Skippy worked on this.’
——

Ah, welcome to my life. My place turns 151 this year. There has not been a repair or renovation that hasn’t required twice the work it should have been yet. It’s so regular, my MO has turned to “just tear it all out” during the planning stage.

The place cost me 123k though, so I repair and renovate with a smile…

—————-

At least you guys can fix stuff. A few years back I “fixed” a leaky hose behind a toilet in my house. I was so proud of myself. Sometime early morning, my repair job let go and the resulting flood of water caused around 6000 dollars damage to the ceiling, hardwoods etc. on the floor below.

Total savings by not initially hiring a plumber $250.00, resulting damage around $6000.00

Final balance, – $5750.00 . These days my wife doesn’t let me touch anything when something breaks.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 4:17 pm

@#59 Drinking
“Harper makes a solid argument on what he sees the future will bring between the powers at heed!”

++++

yep.
Emperor Pooh
aka Xi Jinping is between a rock and a hard place.
The Chinese economy MUST keep growing or millions will be unemployed.
Cant have that.
The military build up, the crushing of all internal opposition, a necessary “enemy” ( Democratic Taiwan ) …

If the world economy , or China, sinks into recession…

A proxy war between China and the US in Asia in the next 2-5 years.

#63 Flop... on 03.13.21 at 4:28 pm

It occurred to me while I spent 3 hours washing my rig this morning, that because of COVID I no longer have a financial adviser, and therefore no need to ask them if I can afford my next long road trip.

Colorado has been on my mind for a while now, won’t happen this summer, but have penciled a six week road trip in for summer 2022.

My rig is getting old, I’m getting old, I swear that thing gets bigger every time I wash it.

Bloody thing makes me feel stiff.

I guess that’s why they call it Rigor Mortis…

M46BC

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 4:29 pm

@#50 Dolce Vita
“They’ll need more than than an army just to get thru the 70 yr olds any time soon, that Covid didn’t kill, if the 80 yr old vax effort was any indication.”

++++
Sounds like Canada.
The geniuses in charge in Nova Scotia have decided that people in Long Term Care ( my 90 year old parents) should LEAVE THE ISOLATION of the Covid Free care hoe and individually travel to …. The local hockey arena to stand in line with god only knows who.

A monkey could figure out in about two seconds it might be faster, easier and safer to ….gee, I dont know…. send a few nurses to the Care home to inject the people there?
So they arent exposed unnecessarily?

It seems, more and more……
Idiots run govt. everywhere.

They have had a YEAR to figure out the logistics and it still seems like it was created on the back of a napkin in a pub.

#65 Drinking on 03.13.21 at 4:35 pm

A fixer upper for 300k in Saint Johns. Reserving judgement on this one…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/four-sisters-house-for-sale-1.5948199

#66 cuke and tomato picker on 03.13.21 at 4:40 pm

Number 43 VGRO and chill I like your dad to make things perfect and keep them perfect is a valuable skill. Paying attention to detail and maintaining high standards will have everything come to you in avalanches of abundance.
Also a headline in the TC states that B.C. coped better than most WE have to be proud of Adrian Dix and of course BOONIE HENRY AND THE BEST DON’T REST.

#67 mark on 03.13.21 at 4:52 pm

#60 Loonie Doctor on 03.13.21 at 4:02 pm
#32 Mark

Stress tester for portfolio drawdowns. I am sure there are more professional ones out there, but I made one for Canada. About 30 years of data.

https://www.looniedoctor.ca/investment-portfolio-historical-returns/

I also made a 2000 crash simulator called the Investin Intesinal Fortitude Tester.

https://www.looniedoctor.ca/investing-risk-tolerance-tool/

-LD

********************************************

A big thank you for furnishing this, I am hoping you have some data on preferred share index always wondered how they helped if at all for drawdowns?

Mark.

#68 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 5:01 pm

#54 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 3:24 pm
#51 IHCTD9 on 03.13.21 at 2:46 pm

Re: woman losing POS cash

———–

A lot of life’s success depends not as much on making big wins, but instead avoiding big losses.

This is one reason learning over time by making many small mistakes is so useful.
———

Aye. I don’t think this lady understood that if she paid an 80k premium to the previous presale owner, that it was GONE, no matter what may happen later. It was effectively a “bet” on values only going higher, but without any legal protection if something went wrong.

80k ain’t chicken feed to a regular working schmuck. She is probably going to learn “all at once”.

#69 Loonie Doctor on 03.13.21 at 5:19 pm

A big thank you for furnishing this, I am hoping you have some data on preferred share index always wondered how they helped if at all for drawdowns?

Mark.

—————————————————————–

Thanks Mark.

Unfortunately, I don’t. That is hard data to come by. There was this white paper on it. They concluded that they did not help in a downturn. I think a lot likely depends on the time frame being looked at and what interests rates are doing. They have been dropping for a long time. Could that change moving forward? I have no idea.

https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2015-02-20_PWL_Kerzerho-Bortolotti_The-Role-of-Preferred-Shares-In-Your-Portfolio_Hyperlinked.pdf

#70 Dave on 03.13.21 at 5:21 pm

Everyone I know in metro Vancouver is buying a house for a quick flip. Very few are buying as a home

#71 DON on 03.13.21 at 5:27 pm

Just got back from Canadian Tire had to aee it with my own eyes…

The Stanley Professional Series Socket set i bought a year ago on sale for $129 regular $249…..is noe onsale for $140ish….reglar now $494.

Inflation is just part of our imagination according to Tiff.

At least the Garant rake i bought was Made in Canada and well priced.

The socket set was Made in China.

Gotta wonder what the Central Banks see as a risk that is worse than inflation..cause they don’t appear to be concerned. Are they concentrating on other issues…Or is it mums the word till after the election and a majority has been won?

Thanks for the research Ryan…I like seeing the data…much appreciated!

#72 Toronto_CA on 03.13.21 at 5:34 pm

#56 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.13.21 at 3:33 pm

Yes – many companies are doing office refurbishments because the use of the office is going to shift due to the new hybrid working model. You’ll need less space generally, but people will use more meeting rooms and shared spaces as the only reason to go in is to work with your team and get face time. A cubicle farm with walls is no longer what people want from an office. Those need to come down, and open plan with hotel desks needs to come in. Along with all the covid-secure shit that offices will need.

Trust me, people will go back but only 2-3 days a week in the vast majority of cases. This is the future. It will make a huge difference, and those who can’t see it coming will get run over.

#73 Nonplused on 03.13.21 at 5:48 pm

#14 KNOW IT ALL on 03.13.21 at 10:21 am
We already know this Ryan.
Have you not been reading the Greaterfool blog everyday?

New content please.

—————————–

I think that is kind of disrespectful. You try and come up with a completely unique topic every week! And the graphs were new and interesting, especially the ownership costs chart. 55%? Wow. And that is with record low rates.

#74 DON on 03.13.21 at 5:48 pm

59 Drinking on 03.13.21 at 3:57 pm
#5 crowdedelevatorfartz

No wonder Xi and Putin are buddies, same ideology, if one wishes to call it that!

Harper makes a solid argument on what he sees the future will bring between the powers at heed!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/former-pm-stephen-harper-sees-new-cold-war-this-time-between-u-s-and-china-1.5346247

****************

Harper states the obvious…this has been talked about for some time in the International news. It appears relations with China are to continue what Trump started. The UK is getting on China for violating the Hong Kong treaty. Russia to supply coal to China that used to come from Australia. Vietnam, Japan sligned with the US. India just ordered 39 reaper drones to patrol boarder with China. Iranian oil being gobbled up by China. Turkey playing both sides. Russia and China anning to build a lunar base right next to Dr. Evil about a smile away from Smonking Man’s Moon cabin right next to the Dusty lake. Yes it appears Countries are picking sides.

But I thought the last Cold War was the last one…but but it is different this time.

#75 Flop... on 03.13.21 at 5:53 pm

In summer 2016, another time when Vancouver real estate was fairly hot, someone bought a brand new detached nearby where I live for the best part of 2.4 million.

Hardly seen anyone there ever since.

House just sits there empty.

Last year only saw a group of people having a backyard get together on two days.

St Patrick’s Day and Canada Day.

About to see this week if the tradition continues…

M46BC

#76 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 6:00 pm

Speaking on the work from home front. I had a boss back in 2015/2016 that was incessant on no one working at home. He didn’t even like people leaving right at 5pm. Yet, he outsourced to Ukraine and had major issues with the platform, etc. Anyhow, he threatened staff including myself with, “you’re not leaving until its all done.”

I remember trying to outdrink him at this party. That ended badly for me with an $80 cab ride home and a 3 day hangover. Fireball is absolutely gross by the way and whatever cheap rum his office manager bought. Oddly enough, he let me work from home on that after Monday only because of my “work ethic.”

Wouldn’t be where I am now without putting in the time at this place. No idea his stance now but am sure it hasn’t changed.

#77 Nonplused on 03.13.21 at 6:00 pm

#21 Bert on 03.13.21 at 10:55 am

“Many employer surveys are showing the opposite of what you’re saying. Employers are saying they expect less than 60% of employees to return to the office.”

—————————————–

Most people don’t work in an office and never did. And anyway this is an old trend that covid just accelerated. The war on the office began with the advent of the computer and especially the PC. You don’t need as many accountants when you have SAP. You don’t need hardly any admins when you have word. You don’t need offices when you don’t have paper with secrets on them.

I think the office towers may repopulate partially with existing businesses but also with new businesses assuming we have economic growth. But we won’t need to build new ones for a while.

But as I alluded to, most people work in the field, or at the construction site, or for UPS, or in a showroom, or in a classroom, or in a warehouse, or driving trucks. These people will never have a WFH option so the whole thing is overblown in my opinion. I guess because this is kind of an “elite” comments section it is easy to confuse the office with the economy but it’s not. It’s more of an overhead cost. Nothing productive gets done there. A necessary evil if you will.

#78 Nonplused on 03.13.21 at 6:13 pm

“I’m no fan of T2 or his out of control spending/deficits but all countries are doing the same thing so I don’t buy the argument that our dollar will tank due to T2 policies. Currencies are always relative so you have to consider what the US, Europe, Japan etc. are doing as well. – Ryan L”

They can all go down together through inflation. I think that is the major concern because what is happening in the cost of ownership chart and at the grocery store is no sub-2% phenomena. They can distort the CPI all they want, even torture it to get a false confession, but that doesn’t change what people are experiencing in the real world.

And that, I think, largely explains why savings rates are so low. For most people, there isn’t any money at the end of the month to save, and the squeeze gets worse every year.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 6:16 pm

#39 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 12:40 pm
#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 12:13 pm

So, today, on a sunny day, when me and my lovely wife should be out walking on the beach…

———–

What wife?
————
Can’t you read?
The lovely one.
The other five have to stay home to cook and do the cleaning.

#80 Flop... on 03.13.21 at 6:17 pm

Always been a bit of a sports nut.

Just tuning in to the Players Golf Tournament in Florida, good to see fans on the banks, cheering players at the iconic island 17th green.

My Aussie Rules Football team, Carlton Blues, opens the season in Melbourne this Thursday night, the ground capacity is 100,000 fans, they are selling tickets for 50,000 but with no COVID cases on the docket, the government is being lobbied hard to increase this to 75,000 fans.

Another thing sports-wise of note, a few years ago I wrote a couple of posts on here about how it would be good for the Canadian Football League to try and merge with a league down south to try and become more of a feeder league for the NFL.

Secondary cities like Portland and Boise, Oklahoma and Milwaukee could be targeted, making the league more exciting, less one dimensional, and anyone that has been to the States during the Xmas holidays, when it is Bowl Season, or even to a city where a NFL is scheduled these fans travel well and slosh lots of money into the local economies.

Well, apparently, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson owner of the XFL is going to hold meetings with the CFL to see if something mutually beneficial can be worked out.

Feds are chucking coin at everything else, this idea if it takes off could help bring some energy back to these city downtown cores.

I will waive my consultancy fees, for the love sports.

Do it….CFL is a dead football player walking…

M46BC

#81 Toronto on 03.13.21 at 6:27 pm

I sure hope the people return to Toronto and stop destroying our town

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 6:29 pm

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 12:52 pm
@#33 Numb
“I can easily wait it out another year and see how this all plays out…”
+++

Invest in non registered and wait it out.

I’m also maxed out in registered and have dumped wads into non registered.
I refuse to jump into a real estate frenzy that has all the makings of a disaster in the next 12 months.
—————
What is worse than no knowledge of a subject?
Some knowledge of a subject.

#83 Don Guillermo on 03.13.21 at 7:05 pm

#23 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 11:06 am

Also, when something breaks in our house it’s often a hokey bandaid from the previous owner (s) and I get to fix it properly and there is satisfaction in that. We call the previous owners ‘Skippy’, as in: ‘Oooh, that’s the problem. Skippy worked on this.’
***************************************
You bought Trudeau’s old house?

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 7:33 pm

@#82 Pugnacious Prattle
“What is worse than no knowledge of a subject?
Some knowledge of a subject.”

++++

What’s worse than being Ponzie?
Not knowing you’re Ponzie.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 7:41 pm

#74 Don
Harper states the obvious…..
It’s sad that a former PM does not have deeper insights than your average China observer.
It’s obvious that China is going for Numero Uno.
And the US is gonna do everything, short of a nuclear war, to prevent that from happening.
Who’s gonna win this race, is anybody’s guess.
But it will be ugly.
There is a lot of hate directed towards China now, partly because of the virus.
And Trump’s vitriolic anti-Chinese comments did not help.
Beating up Chinese looking people in the streets of America and Canada has no place in a civilized society.

#86 Job#1 on 03.13.21 at 7:44 pm

#4 Dave

I believe you would be down 2% after the 30% crash.
I f you payed $100 and 2 years later it was “worth” $140, then $140 – 30% ($42) = $98.

#87 NewWest on 03.13.21 at 7:45 pm

I think one thing that is being missed in all the WFH predictions is that many people are actually desperate to get back to the office.

There were a half-a-dozen people allowed in my office last March once the lockdown began. Health and Safety, Facilities, that kind of thing. I was the only admin person authorized to be there a couple of times a week for stuff that couldn’t be done remotely like depositing cheques and handling mail. Everyone else, several hundred people, working from home.

I can’t tell you the number of calls I got from mainly women begging to come back. There was only so much “together” time that they could take with both parents working from home as they were remote schooling kids. Lower Mainland so often not a huge amount of space to work with, and being on a computer balanced on your dresser in the bedroom for eight hours everyday while wrangling kids isn’t fun. I know from experience that an office is often a sanctuary from home, where at least you can determine what problems you will address first, no one (usually) is shouting at you, and you can eat your lunch in peace.

Even a long commute can be a respite from the daily grind.

#88 Job#1 on 03.13.21 at 7:54 pm

#28 Sail Away

I guess Skippy was culturally deprived, without the benefit of Red Green’s advice about the handyman’s secret weapon, duct tape.

https://youtu.be/yjnC9Jmo_6o

#89 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 7:57 pm

Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 6:29 pm

You can say that again. Ignorance is sometimes bliss. However, I would rather push aside the FOMO mortgage debt and not always be knocking on “debts” door. In my case, I have cash. In my head, I keep asking… what’s the purpose of home ownership?

On another note about realtors and open heart surgery: my surgeon suddenly came back from Africa to do mine and countless others at St Pauls. No idea what he was doing there. Holiday or maybe dealing with heart patients in a country with nothing. Either way, I am still here and have more trust with him than a realtor!

#90 DON on 03.13.21 at 7:58 pm

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 6:16 pm
#39 Sail Away on 03.13.21 at 12:40 pm
#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 12:13 pm

So, today, on a sunny day, when me and my lovely wife should be out walking on the beach…

———–

What wife?
————
Can’t you read?
The lovely one.
The other five have to stay home to cook and do the cleaning.

*************

I love only one girl…one in every townnn.

#91 Lorne on 03.13.21 at 8:04 pm

#71 DON on 03.13.21 at 5:27 pm
Just got back from Canadian Tire had to aee it with my own eyes…

The Stanley Professional Series Socket set i bought a year ago on sale for $129 regular $249…..is noe onsale for $140ish….reglar now $494.

Inflation is just part of our imagination according to Tiff.

At least the Garant rake i bought was Made in Canada and well priced.

The socket set was Made in China.
………

You have to understand Canadian Tire pricing! If you do a little study over the next little while you will notice many things priced way higher than you think they should be….but, surprisingly they are on sale….for a tremendous discount! Really, it is now $11 more than it was last year.

#92 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 8:10 pm

Flop… on 03.13.21 at 6:17 pm

Haven’t you heard… XFL will save the CFL. Thanks to the Rock. I don’t know why the NFL never just absorbed it anyway. Get some cheap loonies and well than fans are looneys as well

#93 Flop... on 03.13.21 at 8:20 pm

Real Estate Down Under Edition.

They got 10 million back, only 340 million to go.

This guy is going to be looking over his shoulder for an incoming boomerang the rest of his life…

M46BC

“A Mosman home that had been owned by missing iProsperity businessman Harry Zhou Xiang Huang sold on Saturday for $10.52 million, recording one of the biggest auction results for the weekend.

Disgruntled creditors had forced the sale of the four-bedroom home at 28 Fairfax Road after Huang and his associate and iProsperity founder Michael Menghong Gu fled the country last year. 

They left behind debts believed to be as much as $350 million after iProsperity collapsed.

The business had been part of the federal government’s Significant Investor Visa program in which wealthy foreigners were granted fast-tracked residency visas.”

https://www.domain.com.au/news/missing-businessmans-home-sells-for-10-52-million-in-electric-sydney-auction-weekend-1032994/

#94 Wrk.dover on 03.13.21 at 8:27 pm

#76 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 6:00 pm

Fireball is absolutely gross by the way

———————————————

Too sticky , thick and sugary, but…

25% fireball
25% bourbon
50% Absolute or Finlandia

Spicier, healthier and mm mm good!

#95 Wrk.dover on 03.13.21 at 8:41 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.21 at 4:29 pm

The geniuses in charge in Nova Scotia

———————————————–

You can’t buy legal dope between Kentville and Yarmouth, over 2.5 hours apart. (They know the competition)

But you can’t get a vax in that zone either.

Digby is sort of in the middle, add another hour plus two ferry boat rides for the folks at the bottom of Digby Neck.

I’m supposedly childless, but care more about the environment than idiots who breed and leave children to inherit this mess. Imagine, tens of thousands of co-morbid geriatrics driving three-four hour round trips for a vax, whereas we get flu shots ten minutes in either direction!!!!

My wife and I are on both sides of 70, we get to do two trips, weeks apart.

And repeat for all?

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 8:46 pm

89 Numb
On another note about realtors and open heart surgery: my surgeon suddenly came back from Africa to do mine and countless others at St Pauls. No idea what he was doing there. Holiday or maybe dealing with heart patients in a country with nothing. Either way, I am still here and have more trust with him than a realtor!
————-
You’re probably in good hands.
The guy who did the World’s first heart transplant was from South Africa.
He became a big celebrity.

#97 Bill Grable on 03.13.21 at 8:51 pm

Canada and most Countries are bankrupt – and printing currency like crazy along with a Pandemic that is eroding people’s brains.
We can expect our economic situation to be in Depression mode, for the rest of my life.
A Depression that will make the Thirties look like Christmas.

Go ahead – buy a condo – use that credit card – spend that money on a $100,000 pickup…..and bon chance.

I am terrified of what’s happening with Stocks and I am THIS CLOSE to selling everything.

I am sure glad I am not a younger person… and I won’t be around to see most of this unfold.

PS. I couldn’t care less about the CFL.

#98 Flop... on 03.13.21 at 8:58 pm

Welcome to tonight’s edition of I Wrote/You Wrote.

I wrote this…

#80 Flop… on 03.13.21 at 6:17 pm

Well, apparently, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson owner of the XFL is going to hold meetings with the CFL to see if something mutually beneficial can be worked out.

————————————–

Then you wrote this response to my post…

#92 Mind Goes Numb on 03.13.21 at 8:10 pm
Flop… on 03.13.21 at 6:17 pm

Haven’t you heard… XFL will save the CFL. Thanks to the Rock. I don’t know why the NFL never just absorbed it anyway. Get some cheap loonies and well than fans are looneys as well.

—————————–

This concludes tonight’s edition of I Wrote/You Wrote…

M46BC

#99 mark on 03.13.21 at 9:01 pm

You don’t even need a crash any more for this to be perilous to your finances. Buy at these nosebleed levels then have a life event (divorce 50% chance, health, job) while there’s a 10% decline, add in closing costs, and you’ve smoked most of your equity.

The risks are ridiculous.

#100 Jem on 03.13.21 at 9:25 pm

#80 New West

Pre-pandemic, it was a shared understanding among working mothers at my workplace that a workday at the office was their break from the endless demands of running a house and family.

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 9:36 pm

# 91 Lorne
You have to understand Canadian Tire pricing! If you do a little study over the next little while you will notice many things priced way higher than you think they should be….but, surprisingly they are on sale….for a tremendous discount! Really, it is now $11 more than it was last year.
————
I know.
But I’m finished with them.
Not buying non stick frying pans from them anymore.
80% off, and after 1 months, you have to throw it out.
Can’t even recycle it.
When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

#102 DON on 03.13.21 at 9:58 pm

#91 Lorne on 03.13.21 at 8:04 pm
#71 DON on 03.13.21 at 5:27 pm
Just got back from Canadian Tire had to aee it with my own eyes…

The Stanley Professional Series Socket set i bought a year ago on sale for $129 regular $249…..is noe onsale for $140ish….reglar now $494.

Inflation is just part of our imagination according to Tiff.

At least the Garant rake i bought was Made in Canada and well priced.

The socket set was Made in China.
………

You have to understand Canadian Tire pricing! If you do a little study over the next little while you will notice many things priced way higher than you think they should be….but, surprisingly they are on sale….for a tremendous discount!

****************

I get what they are doing…it is like they think everyone is a first time customer.

#103 good2all on 03.13.21 at 11:12 pm

“Third, the Canadian home ownership rate sits near a multi-decade high of 67%. Meaning, most people who can afford or want a home are already in the housing market.”

— a friend who already owns 4 properties just bought 1 more

#104 Vlad on 03.14.21 at 12:27 am

I think the greatest fools are the patrons of this website. The government will protect housing tooth and nail. Any correction will still be way, waaaaay about 2006-07 levels.

The ship has sailed. It’s time to let go of the fallacy. The government rewards reckless debt and punishes saving. It won’t stop.

#105 under the radar on 03.14.21 at 5:32 am

“A lot of life’s success depends not as much on making big wins, but instead avoiding big losses.

hitting a financial home run is nice and happens to me more than I deserve, but singles and doubles over time is all you need if you can avoid big losses.

#106 Kiril Peev on 03.14.21 at 8:29 am

Ryan I agree with your analysis. One thing I have not seen and do not know how to quantify is the central bank mbs buying program at xbillions per week. Would that program effectively decouple mortgage rates and the 5 year can govt bond rates?

#107 Kevin on 03.14.21 at 8:32 am

So lately I have been on the phone a lot, and its always dealing with WFH reps of various companies and governments. It has proven that the term WFH actually means Wait For Hours. Without actual data I cant tell, but it seems that the worst time to have contact with these agents is, whenever there could be a home chore to do. like getting kids ready for school, coffee break, lunch time and so on.
Please, open up the call centers, and stop the recording, Due To High Volume.

#108 Bert on 03.14.21 at 9:33 am

Uh oh…

https://youtu.be/8IUn2mDE-xo

TSLA

#109 Do we have all the facts on 03.14.21 at 9:36 am

No matter how I look at the current housing market in Canada in 2031 it seems similar to what was going on in the United States in in 2007.

The current prime rate in Canada is 2.45% and 5 year mortgages are currently being issued at rates as low as 1.6% per annum. In essence our financial institutions are competing to issue ‘sub prime’ mortgages at a time when a $400 billion increase in M2 money supply has substantially inflated the prices of most goods and services. Inflation is generally controlled by increasing the cost of borrowing money and that bell is ringing.

We cannot accurately predict the extent that a reduction in average house prices, an increase in interest rates and the lack of economic growth might have on households holding substantial debt.

With that in mind the issue of ‘sub prime’ mortgages, even though they have a five year term, might result in considerable hardship for thousands of Canadian homeowners down the road.

Corrections often accelerate at rates that take our governments and financial institutions by surprise. Surely a more cautious approach seems appropriate given the possible consequences.

#110 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 10:44 am

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 9:36 pm

…I’m finished with [Canadian Tire].
Not buying non stick frying pans from them anymore.
80% off, and after 1 months, you have to throw it out.
Can’t even recycle it.
When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

———–

Anyone who buys cookware from a place called Canadian Tire has only themself to blame. Did you also pick up some lingerie from Mark’s Work Warehouse?

#111 Ryan Lewenza on 03.14.21 at 10:58 am

Kiril Peev “Ryan I agree with your analysis. One thing I have not seen and do not know how to quantify is the central bank mbs buying program at xbillions per week. Would that program effectively decouple mortgage rates and the 5 year can govt bond rates?”

QE just helps to drive interest rates lower along with 5-year fixed rates. Without QE the 5-year likely wouldn’t have declined all the way down to .3% last year and mortgage rates declining below 2%. Also QE is temporary, likely going till the end of the year/early next year. So no, QE will not lead to a decoupling of those two rates. – Ryan L

#112 Ryan Lewenza on 03.14.21 at 11:05 am

NewWest “I think one thing that is being missed in all the WFH predictions is that many people are actually desperate to get back to the office.”

I couldn’t agree more. Sure there are some great benefits from working from home but it comes with drawbacks. By our nature we’re social beings. We need interaction with other people or we’ll all go nuts. And my kids are driving me nuts so there’s that as well. I think we’ll see a hybrid model where people work a day or two at home and the rest back in the office. Time heals all wounds and I think some time after we’re all vaccinated we’ll be ready to get back into the office and back to normal. – Ryan L

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 11:06 am

@#95 wrk.dvr
“Imagine, tens of thousands of co-morbid geriatrics driving three-four hour round trips for a vax, whereas we get flu shots ten minutes in either direction!!!!”

++++

Yep.
And dont forget.
The donkeys in charge had A YEAR TO PREPARE for the eventually vaxx program.

Thank the gods that virus isnt some fast moving, high mortality science fiction movie.

These idiots would be stuck in weeks of zoom meetings discussing the ratio of gender equality workers for the truck drivers delivering the disinfectant….when it eventually arrived form some other country because, apparently, we’re incapable of making anything ourselves.

#114 Oh Oh Sticky Pasta on 03.14.21 at 11:09 am

#110 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 10:44 am
#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.21 at 9:36 pm

…I’m finished with [Canadian Tire].
Not buying non stick frying pans from them anymore.
80% off, and after 1 months, you have to throw it out.
Can’t even recycle it.
When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

———–

Anyone who buys cookware from a place called Canadian Tire has only themself to blame. Did you also pick up some lingerie from Mark’s Work Warehouse?

————

Did you pay an outrageous amount for Hawaiian tourist whale art?

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 11:11 am

@#110 Sail Away
“Did you also pick up some lingerie from Mark’s Work Warehouse?”

++++
My Austrian spies tell me Mark’s lingerie does quite well.
The combination of flannel checkered shirts, work overalls and rubber boots are apparently selling quite well in Vienna this year as naughty bedroom apparel….

Strange , but true.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 11:24 am

@#93 Flop
“A Mosman home that had been owned by missing iProsperity businessman Harry Zhou Xiang Huang ”

+++

Well, if Harry Huang ( there’s a joke in there somewhere) fled to Canada with his Aus $350 million I’m sure he could afford the very best lawyers to fight his extradition for decades.

#117 Michael Morfee on 03.14.21 at 11:26 am

#22 Bert – exactly! Corporations save so much on overhead costs, less cars driving back and forth to work, people can eat healthier. Biggest challenge is managing performance, most companies can’t do this when employees are on prem.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 12:07 pm

The US has Vaccinated 100 Million people.
25% of their population.

https://www.reuters.com/video/2021/03/13/us-crosses-100-million-vaccine-dose-mark?videoId=727170640&videoChannel=1003

As Canada still issues directives, orders and options.

Have we reached 1 million Canadians vaxxed yet?
1/40th of our population?

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 12:23 pm

@#151 Parsonage
“Camped out in Canmore while parents shopped for a house in Banff, summer of ’58. Hard to believe the changes to both towns over time. ”

+++

I stayed in Canmore for a weekend in the early 2000’s.
I couldnt even recognize the place.
We drove up to the Spay Lakes.
Same thing.
Unrecognizable since the Winter Olympic build up.

Some great golf courses around there but the elk were everywhere.
I couldnt understand why the fairway grass had huge chemical “burn” marks on it until I witnessed an elk relieve it’s bladder…. epic.

#120 WTF on 03.14.21 at 12:40 pm

#101 Ponzie I know.
But I’m finished with them.
Not buying non stick frying pans from them anymore.
80% off, and after 1 months, you have to throw it out.
Can’t even recycle it.
When it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

—————————————————

There is a reason its called Crappy Tire. Bought a pressure washer there. It broke in 1 hour. Took It back, they wouldnt take it. ” deal with the manufacturer” (which I had done already by calling the 1-800 ignore) I wouldn’t leave. Politely held my ground. Store manager finally relented just to get rid of me as customers were piling up. Got my $ back and left.

2 weeks later I got a call from India (pressure washer customer service) regarding my complaint. Was able to tell them their piece of junk was no longer my problem.
Cathartic…… and a valuable life lesson.

#121 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 12:42 pm

#114 Oh Oh Sticky Pasta on 03.14.21 at 11:09 am

Did you pay an outrageous amount for Hawaiian tourist whale art?

———–

It was an octopus, and yes, we paid a LOT for it. But it’s just money and there’s more where that came from.

It’s a wonderful piece. I feel so… cultured.

#122 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 12:48 pm

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.21 at 12:07 pm

The US has Vaccinated 100 Million people.
25% of their population.

———–

They also wisely and presciently allowed natural immunIzations to occur on great scale so the US Covid is now, for all intents and purposes, over.

Our Texas friends are constantly posting party pics. Great leadership down there!

#123 Sail Away on 03.14.21 at 1:14 pm

#117 Michael Morfee on 03.14.21 at 11:26 am

#22 Bert – exactly! Corporations save so much on overhead costs, less cars driving back and forth to work, people can eat healthier. Biggest challenge is managing performance, most companies can’t do this when employees are on prem.

————–

Corps don’t care about employee migration or feeding habits. Overhead costs pale to insignificance compared to salaries.

Here’s a quick analysis for 30-person well-managed professional office:

Office monthly rent plus overhead specifically for the building: $20,000
Office monthly salary: $140,000
Office monthly revenue: $350,000

If efficiency suffers even slightly with WFH, it’s gone. My firm noticed an immediate efficiency drop. Result? WFH gone.

#124 Steve on 03.15.21 at 3:46 am

“most of the irrational behaviour flows directly from the virus”

It’s got nothing to do with the virus.

This is tyranny long planned in advance. North America is rapidly becoming a Soviet dictatorship run by cucks like the soyboy Trudeau and senile Biden. You finance peope never get it. Like Lenin said, you will sell the rope to hang yourself. Wake up for God sakes