Hopeless

Well, dogs. We’re on our own. The Tiffer has left the building. Nobody’s in control.

On Wednesday the Bank of Canada dropped its latest epistle. Interest rates stay the same – we get it, and were expecting it. The bankers pointed to a ‘strong’ housing market as a key driver of economic recovery. If ‘strong’ means foaming at the gills, full-body tremors, glazed orbs and moist, restless loins, K. We get that, too. But what we don’t get is this:

While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s January projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway.  As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

There you go. Houses in the burbs at $1 million. Two-by-fours at eight bucks. Six thousand dollar puppies. Stock markets soaring. The economy reopening. America surging. Household debt exploding. And people in Owen Sound can’t afford to live there anymore. And this is not enough for the Bank of Canada, which will not only keep its own rate low but continue spending $1 billion every business day buying bonds to suppress yields and keep five-year mortgages at 2% or less.

In Tiff Macklem’s world, inflation’s a dandy thing. Families trading their souls for debt is economically constructive. Pushing real estate valuations to the point where young people will never own is a worthy policy goal. So expectations on Bay Street that QE (quantitative easing – soaking up bonds to manipulate the market) would be ended – or at least scheduled to end – were dashed.

Any doubt the CB is inhabiting another planet is laid to rest. Our central bank forecast a contraction for the national GDP as 2021 got under way – but there’ll be growth instead. The US economy is about ready to explode higher. Our bank has been piddling billions a week to cool off yields, but it hasn’t worked. The debt market is pricing in rate increases of more than 1% going forward. Eventually this will take a toll on housing, but in the meantime the guys in charge of our monetary system are devoid of a single word of caution. Etched into stone above the Bank of Canada’s big brassy doors is this: “StimulusRUs”

Yup, on our own.

This pretty much guarantees the spring rutting season, now just morphing into full hormonal action, will be historic. Multiple bids. Held-back offers. Blind auctions. Over-list sales. Greedy, master-of-the-universe sellers. Arrogant rockstar realtors. Demand overwhelming supply. Price escalation until we hit the wall of buyer disgust and financial despair.

The burbs and hick cities have been slammed. Now urban condos are being Hoovered by investors who know what’s coming. Inflationary expectations have taken root in the countryside as well, fed by the moister myth of forever-WFH. Now, with the Tiffer  cheering’em on, the kids can borrow extra billions and propel this baby to the moon.

Cheap credit. Big leverage. Price inflation. While other countries seem vexed when bubbles puff – especially involving residential real estate – our central bank says this growth is “required”. If it enslaves an entire house-horny generation, or destroys the balance of life in hundreds of sleepy towns, well, tough.

As I detailed to a CBC journalist this week, New Zealand is  thumping speculators and investors and restricting credit. In fact that country’s central bank will be framing policy based on what borrowers earn, not how much they can afford to carry. Like the UK already did. Four years ago.

South Korea’a central bank is capping mortgage amounts while the government whacks speculators with new taxes – sucking off 70% of profits on properties held for a short period of time. Ouch. In fact everybody is subject to some form of capital gains tax on housing windfalls. France is outlawing borrowing above a certain debt service ratio (way lower than the one CMHC allows) in order to keep a lid on the cost of accommodation. And in the US capital gains on the sale of a house are tax-free only if sub-$500,000 for a couple and after at least two years of ownership. Generous but not, like Canada, infinitely so.

Well, now we know. The nation’s monetary authority has decided to go to the washroom until the scary part is over. Will politicians move in and restore sanity?

Nah, me neither. I give up.

265 comments ↓

#1 Sara on 03.10.21 at 2:25 pm

WTF?! That’s all I have to say.

#2 Niagara Region on 03.10.21 at 2:25 pm

A new report comparing the housing market in Canada to New Zealand, where our own local financial guru is cited:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-and-new-zealand-both-have-hot-housing-markets-but-only-1-has-plan-to-cool-things-down-1.5942438

#3 highlander on 03.10.21 at 2:31 pm

nothing we can do………don’t fight it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCEa-modap4

#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.10.21 at 2:39 pm

Dogs are great
beers are good
people are crazy

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 2:39 pm

Words to remember next election.

“The budget will balance itself”

#6 Doug t on 03.10.21 at 2:40 pm

Utter shambles – we are going down the drain without a life preserver- and the so called “Stimulus” ain’t going away, it’s the new norm – I’m fed (no pun intended) up

#7 Linda on 03.10.21 at 2:42 pm

I’m a bit bewildered at the CB expectation that the inflation ‘target’ of 2% won’t be achieved before 2023. Given the price increases for goods thus far I’m thinking it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility Canada will end 2021 with a 2% or higher inflation rate. Or is the CB announcement meant to convey that they expect inflation will level out at 2% by 2023?

#8 some guy on 03.10.21 at 2:44 pm

From a pragmatic point of view, the real estate industry in Canada offers nothing to the world. It enriches people who do very little for the betterment of Canada, they don’t invent, help or do anything vital. It’s an industry that sucks the life out of everything else.

It’s a horrifically bad social policy and the worst thing that has ever happened to Canada. We should be ashamed.

#9 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 2:44 pm

To the moon Alice, to the MOON!

#10 Jim on 03.10.21 at 2:45 pm

I live in Huron County and me and my long time partner just separated. I have until the end of the month to find a place and after that I might be tenting it. There are literally no places to rent unless you like living in a crack den, the seasonal trailer parks will open up in mid May which should provide some opportunities.

Up until 2 years ago you could get into a fixer upper in places like Clinton for 140k, now those same places go for 400K with multiple bids. The median household income is 80K so eventually something has got to give.

When this market shifts there’s going to be alot people hurt which will cause a multigenerational drag on the economy.

#11 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 2:45 pm

In times like this, you gotta step back and remind yourself what is important:
Health, family, a resonable retirement fund and a nice long walk in the forrest.
The rest is fluff.

#12 greyhound on 03.10.21 at 2:46 pm

Once a central bank starts down the “quantitative easing” road, there’s no turning back. Maybe Hyman Minsky actually knew something? Watch the currency and the bond market for coming attractions…

#13 Sask to AB on 03.10.21 at 2:46 pm

Unbelievable……… :(

#14 Adam Smith on 03.10.21 at 2:51 pm

Eat the young, they are more tender anyway.

#15 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

#183 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 12:06 pm

Cherry Picking? Then I suppose you also cherry picked from the studies? Do you understand how wording works? Like for example, “seemed to,” “a potential benefit,” “inconclusive results…” etc. These words are not definitive which means they could not prove that masks definitively worked to reduce the spread for various reasons as stated in the studies. Why not? Why are they afraid to do a complete study?

So basically you and Faron are hanging your hats on studies that actually don’t prove masks work, therefore, you are “cherry picking” the results from them. Even the latest CDC study, regardless of what you think of the person who debunked it, even states the limitations to the study within the body of its report.

It is the same with the links I posted about lockdowns. Not one study definitively proved that lockdowns were successful. They all used words like “may,” “potentially, ” etc. Just like the models used to predict cases use similar words yet people like you and Faron are lead to believe the sky is falling. I think the word “assumption” used in models is a good one. You know what they say about assuming…I would like to see one study, just one, where they say definitively, without a shadow of doubt that masks and lockdowns work to stop the spread. Neither of you has posted any links to those studies. I wonder why?

#16 Jeremy on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

I know you don’t like Rosenberg much, but here you go…

“Canadian housing might be biggest bubble of all time.”

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rosenberg-canadian-housing-might-be-one-of-the-biggest-bubbles-of-all-time-1.1575089

#17 mj on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

the BOC put itself in a corner and can’t fix the problem. This is the way I see it. By keeping rates low, they keep the housing market going and people will keep spending. If they stop the QE, rates will rise and would cool off the housing market. Depending how high rates go, would put downward pressure on prices and people would feel less wealthy and spend less. I don’t believe they have any way out of this easily.

I also keep hearing every level of government talking about a third wave. If that happens, the only thing that is keeping from a worse recession is the housing market. Sad to say, but looks that way to me.

#18 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

The strange sounds you are about to hear will be the flow of money (a.k.a. liquidity) going into the pockets of the banksters, market-makers, primary dealers, and probably RE brokers.

And that’s where it’s going to stay – in their pockets, not yours. Just make sure to ask for healthy regular wage increases from your employer if you have what it takes.

You better know which theme park you are in and where exactly you are positioned on the roller coaster.

#19 DON on 03.10.21 at 2:55 pm

Nuttiness Confirmed.

Things have to appear to be strong…strength…recovery until after the next federal election. Trudeau will request a majority to ensure the sustainability of the economic recovery thus far. Blah blah blah and Mr. Show me the money is still the one to beat, like it or not. He is shoring up he votes in BC with all the extra funding annoucements lately.

NZ’s leader easily got re-elected a couple of months ago. She sure fits the role of a great leader.

#20 Prince Polo on 03.10.21 at 2:56 pm

I so wish Jacinda was our PM. Instead, we get Photo-op Minister (PM) Socks gleefully playing the role of lecturing dad, whilst actively setting up the destruction of thousands of families who will end up with unpayable mortgage balances. Then, he will skate off into the sunset and not have to deal with any of the consequences of his piss-poor stewardship. *slow clap*

#21 Alberta Ed on 03.10.21 at 2:56 pm

Not to worry. Chrystia Freespender and her boss Socko will let the budget balance itself.

#22 30,000 plus on 03.10.21 at 2:56 pm

G7 CBs are all in on inflation 4% to 6% range for several years to come… They want out of the Japan never ending cycle,,, liquidity trap… Housing may be bubbling but same thing all over the world… Governments must follow lead of all other nations so to keep currency at same points,,, housing be damned…

#23 Wrk.dover on 03.10.21 at 2:58 pm

As per Tiff;

“That cocaine, is a powerful drug!”

(quote: Rick James )

#24 Timmy on 03.10.21 at 2:59 pm

The Tiffster doesn’t care about the fact that many Canadians are now locked out of the market, due to lax measures around buying real estate. These could easily be changed by the govt, they chose not to.

#25 Axehead on 03.10.21 at 3:00 pm

Well, it appears the only sane real estate in all of Canada is in the dusty, bone-dry, grassy, sunny flat provinces west of Upper Canada.

But not for long. Not with oil prices clamoring for the glory days, and maybe, just maybe, as Garth alludes to with comatose optimism, a change in government.

#26 Dolce Vita on 03.10.21 at 3:03 pm

“This is a ticking time bomb in Canadian society right now,” Turner said in an interview.

—————————–

The BoC will learn at some point, as it has in the past (e.g., dollar value), that it just can’t print that large amount of money (in this case, to suppress their rate).

That point will come. When?

Nobody knows.

But when it does, yes…boom.

This is what manipulating, gerrymandering and/or meddling by Gov’s or CB’s will end up doing to the RE sector.

Just ask former Liege, Hero, Lord of the Worlds fiat currency Chairman Greenspan or BETTER, in hi own words:

He had failed to anticipate the self-destructive power of wanton mortgage lending.

—————–

History will repeat as it always has. And Tiff must think he is MUCH SMARTER than Greenspan.

…we’ll just have to wait and see if he is.

#27 Nick on 03.10.21 at 3:03 pm

Inflation includes only the items the BoC wants to include! It’s out of touch with reality. Real inflation has been 5.5% for the last 5 years for the average Canadian! Politician’s manipulation of the Canadian economy is leading to the destruction of Canada. Period!

#28 Classical Liberal Millennial on 03.10.21 at 3:03 pm

2% inflation, my @$$. Have they gone to a grocery store or hardware store lately?

With fixed rates having gone up a few ticks lately, at what point is a variable rate worth considering if they are reiterating the fact there will be no increases before 2023. I have an early renewal date coming up in May.

#29 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 3:05 pm

This pretty much guarantees the spring rutting season, now just morphing into full hormonal action, will be historic. Multiple bids. Held-back offers. Blind auctions. Over-list sales. Greedy, master-of-the-universe sellers. Arrogant rockstar realtors. Demand overwhelming supply. Price escalation until we hit the wall of buyer disgust and financial despair.

—————————————————

Most Excellent! Good job Tiff. Restrictions everywhere around the world in terms of purchasing and selling real estate with the exception of Canada (B.C. not included). That makes Canada highly attractive.

Uppa! Uppa! Uppa!

#30 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.10.21 at 3:07 pm

Not to worry;the debt solution is pretty clear as far as conspiracy theories go:
The government will mandate that on a progressive scale based on age everyone must hold Canada bonds in their (registered ) accounts to ensure stable portfolio return security and support the country. The proceeds will go to pay off the debt.
Say under 40 you hold 20% then 30% at 50 then 40% at 60+.
Capital gains on a progressive scale for housing will come soon as well, not necessarily a bad thing if under 5 years holding.
So why panic, just YOLO’it away before a bunch of nice people show up at the “digital nowadays” door letting you know that “We’re with the government here to help you out”.

#31 TurnerNation on 03.10.21 at 3:09 pm

Paging Nonna Nicola to the blog.

…..
For the doomers and numbers obsessed in this comments section. Proof that the Economic Lockdowns caused many more deaths in all areas. Stats Can lists it out.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm
Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January to December 2020

#32 HowDeepThe Pain? on 03.10.21 at 3:11 pm

Everyone is keen on all the wonderful home equity we have in Canada…until your kids move away because they can’t justify housing in Canada.
No kids around and no grandkids…

Just you, your spouse and your dog. Kind of like Covide isolation for the last 30 years of your life.

#33 leebow on 03.10.21 at 3:11 pm

None of this matters anymore. Things are already set in motion. The only question is timing and how to max the profit.

#34 Faron on 03.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Thanks for your post today Garth.

Who needs gamestop (which made a stunning 50% drop in 20mins today CC: milmech) when you have Canadian RE?

GEX update. Lots of long gamma at SPX 3900 which is why the index keeps bumping it’s head around there. The market is choosing between the old and the new narratives. Will grind higher due to effects of time and volatility decay on options (MMs buy shares back as put theta decays and as volatility drops). Gets slippy below 3900 as evidenced by yesterday’s close and today just after open. Happy holding.

#35 Comments! on 03.10.21 at 3:13 pm

Central banks, the bane of the planet is all I have to say. BS stock markets, BS bond markets, BS commodities, BS real estate, BS inflation, BS everything. 13 years at full throttle.

They are certainly out to own everything at nosebleed valuations and you and I don’t matter. Savers and the prudent be damned.

#36 WTF on 03.10.21 at 3:13 pm

#1 Sara

You called? Sorry I was dodging aggro coyotes in Stanley Park on my bike. They have been dining on joggers lately. Quite a sight to see conservation in full regalia avec Rifles heading into the dark bowels of the most famous park in Canukistan. Send in the cougars! Problem solved, until some dolt decides to feed them too……

THE Tiffer: appointed by Wild Bill who is now sipping Chablis in Chateau MCCain. Presumably the incisive managerial skills of Socks was of great assistance in making the tough choice given his track record appointing stellar candidates.

#37 DON on 03.10.21 at 3:16 pm

#2 Niagara Region on 03.10.21 at 2:25 pm
A new report comparing the housing market in Canada to New Zealand, where our own local financial guru is cited:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-and-new-zealand-both-have-hot-housing-markets-but-only-1-has-plan-to-cool-things-down-1.5942438

********
Thanks Niagara Region

Nice one Garth!

#38 dirty debtor on 03.10.21 at 3:17 pm

I live in New Zealand. things here have gone absolutely nuts.

The difference is, residential buildings in new zealand are built to a worse standard than a canadian garden shed. Its actually comical, and anyone who has spent a winter here would understand

#39 Stoner on 03.10.21 at 3:18 pm

It is very clear that they are desperate for inflation. So far it has been mostly asset inflation. Wage inflation is coming in the budget… Wait for it..

#40 Captain Uppa on 03.10.21 at 3:23 pm

Garth, what I find most vexing about this is the fact that you thought something different might come from BoC.

They cannot and WILL NOT raise rates. I should have taken the variable. That one is on me.

Nope. Fixed under 2% will beat a VRM over the next five. – Garth

#41 SnowOwl on 03.10.21 at 3:26 pm

Picked up just a small bite of FXI today, at a 14% discount from the peak. I guess I am a sucker for political risk with China. Long term might be OK.

#42 T-Rev on 03.10.21 at 3:28 pm

Jeeze Gartho, is that a icre-cream scooper in your pocket or are you exceptionally fired up today?

This will end, badly for many, and well for those who can see what’s really going on. Govern yourselves accordingly.

#43 JSS on 03.10.21 at 3:32 pm

Rising house prices mean higher property taxes, no?
Are families financially prepared to pay more property taxes, while living on stagnant incomes?

Anyway, higher property valuations will be cheered by city councils, and municipalities. More tax money in the kitty

#44 baloney Sandwitch on 03.10.21 at 3:32 pm

Garth, time to give up on RE (too crazy!) and return to your second love. The stock markets. The re-opening of the economy with vaccinations going faster than before in the US, Canada soon to follow is boosting depressed and distressed value stocks. Value stocks are now set to outperform. Load up on oil, airlines, hotels, restaurants. The wilshire 4500 is out performing the S&P 500 by a lot. This will be the story for the rest of 2021.
https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f64235ce3ef042239d4f318966bdc13.png

#45 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.10.21 at 3:33 pm

On a separate note on how well the government handle anything and everything.
Our esteemed BC gov blamed the partner Telus for failing to staff up in order to book vaccination appointments.
Ofcourse no self reflection on how they communicated to the populus (not very well I can tell you that) and told Telus to expect 80k calls . Of course due to this amazing gov communication Telus was slaughtered with 1.7 mil calls within the first day. Even if some people kept redialing guaranteed majority of those calls were people well under 80.
Failure of leadership if I’ve ever seen one. Ofcourse when the federal gov. gets away with the worst mishandling of a crisis what do you expect from the local leaders.

#46 Father's Daughter on 03.10.21 at 3:37 pm

Yah, we give up too. Completely out of the running. Semi’s in our neighbourhood are now going for $1.6+. Old, okay semis. Would love to know who is buying these things because we do pretty well and those prices are completely unreasonable. No FOMO here, just FOGI (fear of “getting in”) and never being able to get the hell out.

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/xLkv3V9pwJO7DBNr/342-Armadale-Ave-Toronto-W5135986

#47 Deadly sins on 03.10.21 at 3:38 pm

For all the wankers on this pathetic blog (you know who you are) who chimed in a few days ago with your vitriolic Kelowna comments, in your face with a can of mace!

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/urban-flight-canada-s-top-places-to-move-to-if-you-re-trying-to-escape-the-city-844541738.html

Just remember, envy is one of the seven deadly sins!

P.S. Rosland never made the list!

#48 Drill Baby Drill on 03.10.21 at 3:39 pm

Put his cd on repeat ” Canadians will not learn until there is an economic melt down”.

#49 Dolce Vita on 03.10.21 at 3:41 pm

#30 TurnerNation

Never on to pass up a “Conspiratio” opportunity.

I read it too and they are less than convincing, anecdotal.

All they are saying is that 13,798 more deaths happened in 2020 than would have “been expected” – 5% more overall, 7% in the “aging” cohort whatever that is). They compare to 2019 deaths (and forget the population also increased by 150K over the period.

They conclude Covid impact cannot explain the extra deaths.

Then go on a statistical magical mystery tour of maybe, if, could have, perhaps prognostications of more statistics that in the end prove nothing more than:

Quisque amat conspiratio

…even StatCan.

———————–

All I want to know is were those numbers:

Seasonally Adjusted?

#50 dosouth on 03.10.21 at 3:41 pm

I believe that most 40 and unders have very little grasp on financial education and invest via social media tweets, posts and dark web advice.

Not sure where the parents of these souls have gone but obviously not advising them when they were younger. So why would they worry now, the gov’t has their back and the realtors, banks, finance companies, mortgage brokers and hacks will have their futures….IMHO

#51 Show me the money! on 03.10.21 at 3:42 pm

“This pretty much guarantees the spring rutting season, now just morphing into full hormonal action, will be historic. Multiple bids. Held-back offers. Blind auctions. Over-list sales. Greedy, master-of-the-universe sellers. Arrogant rockstar realtors. Demand overwhelming supply. Price escalation until we hit the wall of buyer disgust and financial despair.”

———————————————————

Here’s hoping one of your predictions finally comes true!

#52 Lee on 03.10.21 at 3:43 pm

You give up? Does that mean no more blog?

Not that lucky. Yet. – Garth

#53 Do we have all the facts on 03.10.21 at 3:44 pm

The Bank of Canada seems to be relying on a contrived calculation of current inflation levels. As I indicated yesterday the $400 billion increase in money supply over the past 12 months resulted in considerable inflation and this will definitely increase as the economy improves and energy prices recover to pre 2020 levels.

It would be a very big mistake to ignore the true rate that inflation is increasing and the rate that the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar is decreasing.

Any increase in quantitative easing in 2021 will stimulate economic growth and this growth will definitely fuel true inflation. In 1980 the Bank of Canada allowed inflation to get out of control and it became necessary to increase the prime rate to 18.5% to slow things down.

The price of most goods and services cannot continue to increase without a substantial increase in wage levels. As wages increase the impact on true inflation will become evident and the only tool the Bank of Canada has left to slow inflation down is to increase interest rates.

Picking January 2022 as a target date for an increase in interest rates requires reconsideration.

#54 Hilroy on 03.10.21 at 3:46 pm

Preservation and Prosperity of the Crown and “Good Stock”. Our unspoken mantra ….. pray you’re at least one of the two.

#55 earthboundmisfit on 03.10.21 at 3:47 pm

Rosenberg has spoken. Hurt is coming to a lotta folks.

#56 Billy Buoy on 03.10.21 at 3:48 pm

Sorry you had to give up Garth.

It’s just the way it is and it can never change til the great final reset of 1 digital currency world wide and 1% overlords.

Party like it’s never going to end and hope we are dead before the reckoning.

Thank the people who run the Central banks. They all should be _______________. Maybe someday. A boy needs dreams.

#57 Queen of spades on 03.10.21 at 3:50 pm

#8 some guy on 03.10.21 at 2:44 pm

From a pragmatic point of view, the real estate industry in Canada offers nothing to the world. It enriches people who do very little for the betterment of Canada, they don’t invent, help or do anything vital. It’s an industry that sucks the life out of everything else.

It’s a horrifically bad social policy and the worst thing that has ever happened to Canada. We should be ashamed.

_________________________________________

Written by “some guy” who obviously has been left out in the cold, pouring rain.

In the meantime, you need to live with the cards you have been dealt. Life doesn’t come with guarantees!

#58 Captain Uppa on 03.10.21 at 3:50 pm

Nope. Fixed under 2% will beat a VRM over the next five. – Garth

——————————

Noted.

I can’t believe I just complained about 5yr Fixed at 1.79%.

Goes to show you how unique these times are.

#59 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 03.10.21 at 3:54 pm

#30 Turner Nation
So Canada’s death rate per thousand equates to approximately 7.9 for 2020. 2019 was 7.8 and 2018 was 7.7
Very minimal increase and trending upward due to aging population.
Your posts are much appreciated and always backed up by facts/links.

#60 Howard on 03.10.21 at 3:56 pm

This is effectively war against young Canadians.

The question is what the young will do about it. If they don’t start either aggressively voting their interests or leave the country, they have no right to complain.

One problem is that young Canadians don’t even know what QE is, and if you have no idea what it is then you can’t competently assess the macro-economic environment in order to figure out which policies would be best for you.

The result is that many Millennials stupidly blame “capitalism”, when in fact it is an absence of capitalism that is to blame.

#61 yvr_lurker on 03.10.21 at 4:02 pm

No worries. For the next generation who are not able to benefit in a very significant way from the “family plan” (inheritances and gifts), it is just your tough luck that now housing costs in Ottawa, Halifax, Kingston, Montreal, etc… are spiralling upwards to the stratopshere due to the reckless juicing by the Feds and the central bank, combined with the crazy psychological distortions brought on by COVID. Too bad, so sad.

At least Chibougamou is still affordable,

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/qc/chibougamau/properties/

and of course Fort St. John is an option as well

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Real-Estate-Listings/BC/Fort-St-John.html

Just need to buy the best parka on the market and sign up for those french classes. Then you too can have the same quality of life as the previous generation in order to raise your kids.

#62 Entrepreneur on 03.10.21 at 4:05 pm

Yup, we are on our own. Thrown out from warm shelter into the cold ditch, more like it (and with kids.)

Time for everyone to grab a tent or two, set it up in the front/backyard across Canada. Time for a mass show of support for families.

Everybody!

To send a message to Canadian leaders that young families (with kids) are going to be evicted out of their rentals (and yes, investors can get around evictions to make it all legal.)

Set up a tent for first-time buyers too. They are out in the cold too.

Canadians are being ignored, pushed out in the cold, tents, if lucky.

We have to do something!

#63 Comrade on 03.10.21 at 4:07 pm

not surprised, the government is overly invested in the real estate, through CMHC, transfer taxes, fall out of people not being able to keep up with the mortgage payments, majority of the jobs are tied to real estate, construction, materials, etc.

When real estate becomes close to 1/4 of your GDP, and it’s pretty much the only thing you have going on for the economy. The government will do everything in their power to keep this bubble going.

And as for the argument, that this will ruin the future of our kids. Well, the future generations don’t vote for today’s politicians. So it is irrelevant.

Sigh!

#64 Dolce Vita on 03.10.21 at 4:07 pm

You’re correct Garth it will blow up some time in the future.

Greenspan admitted he made that mistake and 2007/8 happened. Albeit due to shady lending practices and debtors that did not meet their obligations (and Wall Street selling that garbage to greedy investors that did not look into the quality of “junk” they were buying like Burry did).

It will take longer I think to happen in Canada as it seems Cdns would rather eat dog food, drink rain water from their gutters and sleep on lawn chairs than part with their home.

We’ll see how it all pans out.

———————

One thing for sure is rampant inflation and the dollar losing its value if BoC continues to print that large amount of money every day.

And yes, Gov Canada is a bystander. Asleep at the wheel. Reactive rather than proactive…then again, that would be meddling (and their debt servicing remains cheap…for now).

Unreigned we’ll get a scaled version of a 21.46% early ’80’s prime early next year or later this year after the other home buying binge in Sept.

#65 ScrollTurnerNation on 03.10.21 at 4:14 pm

Kelowna anecdote Next door neighbor in Lake Country (Kelowna suburb) just sold house, purchased April 2019 23 months ago for 819K listed for 999.9K sold in 3 days three offers over list. I did see a home inspector in. Daughter and SIL have given up on plans to buy this year they are hearing of bidding wars buying sight unseen with no inspector. I am sad for my daughter they have saved for ten years for a house but just won’t jump into this.

#66 SCD on 03.10.21 at 4:15 pm

This money printing will hurt renters as real estate investors sell rather than hold onto rental properties where they can’t raise rents under provincial gov’t covid rules. Tenants will get the boot from the new owners. investors seek the highest return and are agnostic about the rest.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 4:17 pm

@#193 Sara
“It is quite possible to prevent one’s pets from killing wildlife. Also, it is much safer for the pet if it is not allowed to be outdoors unsupervised.”
+++

Bwahahaha.
Ever heard the expression,
“It’s like herding cats…”

Good luck.

#68 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 4:22 pm

DELETED

#69 cramar on 03.10.21 at 4:25 pm

Party like… well, Spring Break in the midst of a pandemic!

Zee roarin’ 20s are back!

Even the stock market is blasting to the moon!

The real pandemic is FOMO!!

Jump in! Jump on!

What’s to loose?

#70 Phil on 03.10.21 at 4:30 pm

Socko, Chrystia,Tiff and all the gang own real estate don’t they?
Kinda like a vested/ conflict of interest don’tcha think?

#71 Jake on 03.10.21 at 4:31 pm

I hope the party ends after my time. I am invested in the markets and own my house with no mortgage but this merry-go-round will eventually go flying off it’s rails and we will all be screwed. This is not sustainable.

#72 Faron on 03.10.21 at 4:33 pm

#15 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

#183 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 12:06 pm

I would like to see one study, just one, where they say definitively, without a shadow of doubt that masks and lockdowns work to stop the spread.

You’ll never see it. No scientist worth their salt will say anything complex is understood definitively.

The only things definitive in science are laws and the few that exist are extremely basic and mostly lie in the realm of physics and math. The best biology and medicine can or will ever do is provide guidance and understanding based on theory and statistical reliability based on hundreds or thousands of studies.

This leaves science open to skepticism which is healthy on one hand because it promotes study and works against complacency. But, skepticism is unhealthy when randos who have political or media clout and a biased agenda start trying to poke holes in things and are able to win folks over on sentiment. This is necessarily elitist. There are a few examples of citizen science that were successful, but for the most part citizen science results in “that’s cool, but…”. It takes a decade of training to work effectively at bringing new knowledge into the world. It’s elitist in the same way we want other professions to be elitist. I don’t want a quack for a doctor. I don’t want a quack for a lawyer (i.e. Lin Wood). I don’t want a quack (me) for a plumber either lest my gas lines explode.

So “we don’t know, but it’s very likely that…” is all a genuine scientist can and will ever say. When I appear in media, that’s my line. “We don’t know with certainty this is climate change, but it’s very likely…”

#73 Faron on 03.10.21 at 4:34 pm

#46 Deadly sins on 03.10.21 at 3:38 pm

P.S. Rosland never made the list!

Because there’s no such place.

#74 WTF on 03.10.21 at 4:36 pm

#44 Black Cat

Bang on, Years ago sat in a meeting with Govt Tel types. Listened to their mostly unfounded accusations for awhile. Then they got it thrown back at them “competition is a wonderful thing, but it comes with responsibilities, you haven’t been fulfilling yours” Then the documents were dropped on the desk outlining their issues. Room got real quiet and the Government offensive stopped abruptly. I see nothing has changed.

For call center management the first thing is a traffic study. Eg: Telco need to know How many expected calls per, from where, hours, call duration, languages required, etc. That dictates much. BC Gov would provide that info as it is their initiative.

The roll out plan would also include communication plan EG: Advise the end users who/what/ when/ how. Once again BC Government responsibility.

ILEC provides and implements/maintains the numbers, facilities, switching, ACD/IVR, billing, database and perhaps the call center agents.

Appropriate Telco Staffing and facilities were likely in place for the “expected call volume” just not the unexpected 1.5 million extra.

Telus CEO Entwhistle fell on his sword to ensure the BC Gov continues to use them for everything else they have contracted for. Millions.

Adrian Dix needs to own this, but he wont……might not come quick but there will be payback I’m sure.

#75 some guy on 03.10.21 at 4:36 pm

RE: Queen of spades

Written by “some guy” who obviously has been left out in the cold, pouring rain.

In the meantime, you need to live with the cards you have been dealt. Life doesn’t come with guarantees!

———————————————————

I’m doing fine but I want better for the country, I’m thinking beyond myself.

Spare me the platitudes, they provide no value here.

#76 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 4:40 pm

Where have all the responsible politicians and bureaucrats gone? They don’t last; only the irresponsible goofballs who give out money like candy stay the course. Look at Bill Morneau he tried to be somewhat responsible and poof, he’s gone.

#77 BlogDog123 on 03.10.21 at 4:45 pm

Those cranky Boomers and old folks who already own their detached home like things the way they are… Priced high.

Geezers can hold off their downsizing to a smaller place while the young’ins cry foul about insane house prices… Let ’em eat cake while they rent! Ha! You can come over to clean the swimming pool, son. Bring the grandkids! Maybe we’ll list in a few year…

Meanwhile Millennials pray that all the geezers simultaneously croak or list their 416 detached houses with big backyards all at the same time, mythically crashing house prices back to 2000 levels… Keep dreaming: Ain’t going to happen…

#78 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 4:46 pm

#15 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 2:53 pm

Oh, Tronny. You just don’t understand how science works. It takes time to get enough evidence to come to a definitive conclusion. In the meantime policy is based on the strongest evidence at the time.

Yes, I cherrypicked those statements because they were from the same studies that you cherrypicked from. That was my point, to contrast with what you posted as definitive evidence that masks don’t work. I’m sorry that went over your head. You’re hanging your hat on studies that acknowledge their limitations and suggest that more evidence is required.

I really don’t have the time or inclination to do your critical thinking for you, especially since you don’t seem to grasp how the whole evidence/modelling thing works, but here are some pointers:
Question your source. Follow all the links, and then evaluate the quality of information in those links, for example:
What is the quality of this study?
Is it peer reviewed?
What is the quality of the journal that published it?
Does the study actually prove what the author of the article (your source) says it proves?

Without taking these steps, you’re just letting someone else do your thinking for you.

Here’s one you can practice on.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

I have better things to do with my time than

#79 Sara on 03.10.21 at 4:47 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 4:17 pm
@#193 Sara
“It is quite possible to prevent one’s pets from killing wildlife. Also, it is much safer for the pet if it is not allowed to be outdoors unsupervised.”
+++

Bwahahaha.
Ever heard the expression,
“It’s like herding cats…”

Good luck.

————————-
Thanks, but good luck is not a requirement – responsible pet ownership is what it takes. Keep your cats in your home. That’s it. Easily done if you are motivated to do it, as I have been. Ask me if you need some tips as to how to keep your indoor cat mentally stimulated – they’re smart and need it.

#80 Happy expat on 03.10.21 at 4:48 pm

This is why I moved to the US. Great job opportunities and a superior quality of life. Don’t knock it until you’ve tried it.

#81 alexinvestor on 03.10.21 at 4:49 pm

The BOC cannot raise rates because our government borrows too much. Our finance minister said that Canada can borrow lots because rates are low, and I’m sure the BOC wouldn’t want to contradict her. The BOC wants inflation and low rates because that’s pretty much the only path left to deal with all this debt … hello financial repression. All very logical but probably leading to a greater bust eventually. It’s not hopeless if you know where the puck is going and if you have options.

#82 Danger Dan on 03.10.21 at 4:50 pm

How many years does it take for extraordinary policy to become acknowledged as ordinary?

#83 dr.rock on 03.10.21 at 4:52 pm

Target 2% inflation? They are either blind or did not go to a store for a very long time. We would be very lucky if inflation will stay around 2% this year.

#84 Shirl Clarts on 03.10.21 at 4:52 pm

C’mon Tiffer! I’m trying to dump some Preferreds. I’m almost back in the black. (growth only, not counting 2.5 years of dividends)

#85 R on 03.10.21 at 4:54 pm

And yet, most Canadians think putting money in the stock market is the stupid risky thing to do. Why should investors in the market be penalized with cap- gain s taxes while “RE Investors” get encouraged with freebe taxes. Better still, when this POS debt needs tending, who are they going call ?

#86 Sydneysider on 03.10.21 at 4:54 pm

The displacement of rural communities due to excessive house prices is a replay of the historical removal of aboriginal communities from their ancestral lands. But this process happens slowly, one house at a time, and there is no obvious point at which to say “Stop, too much!”. This process started long ago in the UK. Not long ago I visited the market town where I had lived in youth, I found it populated by geriatrics and those who made a living in service jobs caring for them. Even the local secondary school, where HG Wells had got his learning, was closed down. That is the sad fate that awaits small Canadian towns.

#87 Randy Wu on 03.10.21 at 4:57 pm

Garth, how come the bond yields in Canada, US are not jumping more. They are being manipulated more and more. Canada, US 5, 10, 20, 30 year bond yields should be at least 1.5% to 2.5% by now.

#88 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm

Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?

#89 DON on 03.10.21 at 5:02 pm

Could Tiff be setting the stage for Trudeau to implement housing measures to appesr to be doing something to aid his election majority. The consequences won’t be felt to after the election.

Meanwhile the market is inching rates upwards.

While the majority of Canadians experience inflation Tiff doesn’t so Captain Uppa believes Tiff but asked for Garth’s advice…see Bizzarro World.

It is in the international news now…sorry again.

Trudeau being an international super star is being out done by Jacinda. He won’t like that.

#90 Facts tell; stories sell on 03.10.21 at 5:02 pm

#73 some guy on 03.10.21 at 4:36 pm
RE: Queen of spades

Written by “some guy” who obviously has been left out in the cold, pouring rain.

In the meantime, you need to live with the cards you have been dealt. Life doesn’t come with guarantees!

———————————————————

I’m doing fine but I want better for the country, I’m thinking beyond myself.

Spare me the platitudes, they provide no value here

——————————-

Perhaps you should have thought of that before you chose to be born in your misfit of a country!

Why not tell everyone the truth? Who did you vote for last election? How many of your children need homes?

#91 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 5:04 pm

#60 yvr_lurker

and of course Fort St. John is an option as well

Yup, that’s what Christy Clark said too back in the day …

#92 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.10.21 at 5:05 pm

“#9 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 2:44 pm
To the moon Alice, to the MOON!”

Yea baby! Love it!

#93 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 5:05 pm

#70 Faron on 03.10.21 at 4:33 pm

I agree with everything you say in this comment but I think there has to be skepticism when it comes to mandates like wearing masks or policies like locking down society. Unfortunately, we haven’t had that during this pandemic. What we have heard from politicians and public health officials is “listen to the science” or “we’re following the science” which seems to be definitive and not at all open to skepticism. There has been virtually no debate as to whether the consequences of lockdowns have been worse than what they are meant to prevent. TurnerNation’s link to the new StatsCan data seems to point to this. Therefore, people who are skeptical about the effectiveness of lockdowns become “Covid deniers” which is not what they are arguing. Some world renown scientists have been given this label simply for proposing a different policy or approach.

You mention the same problem with climate change. “The science” says it is settled but as you point out, it’s not really settled, yet anyone who says climate change is not manmade is a “climate change denier.” Not really, they just deny that is manmade.

#94 Concerned Citizen on 03.10.21 at 5:09 pm

Good thing Tiff isn’t a doctor: “The cancer is a good thing, we need growth where we can get it!”

To call Tiff tone deaf is to call a brick aerodynamic. I am certainly gaining a better understanding as to why he was passed over for Poloz.

I am being priced out of my own country, and I’m much better off than much/most of my cohort. I have no idea what people younger than I are going to do. Canada has done a lot for me and I’m thankful to be here and want to stay and continue contributing, but at this rate I may have to pick up and move to a country with more reasonable real estate prices – like Singapore or Monaco! Either that or build a cabin in the woods 10 hours north.

I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised. History shows us that those with power and wealth will do whatever it takes to protect their power and wealth. I thought Canada was a much more enlightened country – I certainly remember it that way growing up. But as soon as the BoC announced QE – a policy designed to inflate asset prices – I knew it was no longer. They will say the QE is temporary, but just like every other major country that has used it, they will extricate themselves from it.

I’ve started looking into emigration opportunities – not seriously, but it’s probably a good idea to get a sense of my options just in case this lunacy doesn’t revert/end. If I did leave, I’m sure I wouldn’t be missed by the government – after all, they’re about to bring 400,000 new Canadians in each year to keep pumping real estate further into the stratosphere. I have nothing against modest immigration, but to bring these numbers into the country absent any plan whatsoever to deal with the housing affordability crisis is the height of irresponsibility.

What a sickening state of affairs, that’s all there is to it.

#95 Bob in Hamilton on 03.10.21 at 5:09 pm

“Nah, me neither. I give up.”

Same here in regards to real estate…it just took me 10 years to realize the situation. In this country, housing will always go up….it’s the new normal, unfortunately.

#96 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.10.21 at 5:15 pm

THE ANSWER!!!
For all the first time buyers who are afraid they will never, ever, own their first own home. Sweet innocent summer child don’t despair. The answer is only a telephone call away. I am referring to the Princess Margaret Home Lottery. The odds of winning are far greater than ringing the bell with Lotto Max or 649. And best of all your contribution goes to a wonderful cause. That is all I have to say on that , for now.

#97 binky barnes on 03.10.21 at 5:18 pm

I give up! Not even Mr. Justin Trudeau can’t solve this one. I will not be sleeping easy tonight!

BB

#98 binky barnes on 03.10.21 at 5:19 pm

Typo Can’t = Can.

BB

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 5:19 pm

@#72 WTF
“Telus CEO Entwhistle fell on his sword to ensure the BC Gov continues to use them for everything else they have contracted for. Millions.”

++++

Yep.
Entwhistle took the blame and will hand it back in millions in contracts.
His bonus secured.

And the equally “owned” media wont bite the Govt hand that literally “feeds” them through advertising dollars from Work Safe BC, BC Hydro, ICBC, etc etc etc.

Thus our useless govt hacks dodge the well deserved blame.

#100 Keen Reader on 03.10.21 at 5:22 pm

Garth, how do these conditions change your rule of 15 for renting vs buying, looking ahead? 15 worked well over my last six moves in 15 years; maybe 20 is more appropriate now? Merci

#101 Reximus on 03.10.21 at 5:26 pm

Remember that time in April of 2017 when Premier Wynne announced that ‘fair housing’ initiative that put a bunch of measures that were to spook the over-exuberance of the housing market, and it went perfectly to plan and no one got hurt who were planning on selling their house to finance a new build they were waiting to be completed, and it was all went just great, and eventually housing got all super-affordable as result?

Yeah, me neither.

#102 Barb on 03.10.21 at 5:31 pm

And people say the Bank of Canada isn’t “influenced” by government.

This has Trudeau foibles written all over it.

#103 Danny Davvoni on 03.10.21 at 5:32 pm

Concerned Citizen, I know even Garth knows the jig is up. The stock market and real estate markets will not be even in existence in say 10 years because we will all not have the right to own or even be able to buy, sell, transfer property. We are going communist by 2030-2031. I know you all think I am nuts but stick around and see for yourself.

Canada and it’s citizens, people are finished for sure.

#104 Howard on 03.10.21 at 5:33 pm

#60 yvr_lurker on 03.10.21 at 4:02 pm

and of course Fort St. John is an option as well

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Real-Estate-Listings/BC/Fort-St-John.html

———————————

1500 sq ft in Fort St. John listed for $350K CAD:

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Northeast/Peace-River/8304-90-AVENUE/103166914.html

And here’s what you can buy for $250K USD in the 4th largest city in the US:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5827-Wanakah-Dr-Houston-TX-77069/28108779_zpid/?

#105 an investor on 03.10.21 at 5:36 pm

The cost of a downpayment on a Toronto home will buy you a great place to live in America.

Canada is miserable. I want out.

#106 Reximus on 03.10.21 at 5:37 pm

#93 NOSTRADAMUS

One of those PM lottery houses is right around the corner from where I live (it’s the new-build on Maughan Cres in the Upper Beach). I saw the fawning CP24 team doing a walkthrough on it so I checked out the video they made. It’s described as having a value of 2.6mil…anyway things that they were most gushy about were:
1. that it was ‘designed by Sarah Baumler’ which means it was mainly designed by someone else, and she chose the bathroom tiles. probably…
2. It has TWO full laundry rooms, on the bottom floor and the other on the top floor, because apparently the top of design nowadays is having to choose which level you want to do laundry on, in a 3 bed house

#107 mike from mtl on 03.10.21 at 5:38 pm

#70 Faron on 03.10.21 at 4:33 pm

You’ll never see it. No scientist worth their salt will say anything complex is understood definitively.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

See this is exactly why I don’t blindly trust ‘experts’, they’re people too and have their own bias and agendas.

Take the WHO latest tripe. Peter Daszak does know what he’s talking about, but oddly contradicts all what the WHO was basically saying about this virus.

So apparently without evidence or data, one year later based on a few days ‘meetings’ with Chinese officials, apparently comes to agree with the CCP that the virus came from frozen food from SE Asia – wow.

That wet market that was bulldozed last year – nah!
That BSL4 right there in Wuhan studying exactly Bat Corona viruses – nah!
Bubbling below the surface in Yunnan – nah!

Again this whole virus thing is not only a public health emergency but also has this geopolitical slant that is hard to not acknowledge.

#108 Guy in Calgary on 03.10.21 at 5:43 pm

Just get rid of CMHC for new mortgages. Let the banks take 100% of the risk and watch the lending tighten up all on its own.

#109 OttawaRetired on 03.10.21 at 5:44 pm

Real estate is even going nuts in Ottawa. My neighbour bought his house 2 years ago for $680k, the only upgrade was putting a sauna room in the basement. He put it up for sale 10 days ago. For Sale sign went up (there was no “Coming Soon” sign) on Thursday, with showings Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with offers being entertained starting Monday at noon. No bully offers accepted. Asking price $1.048M. SOLD sign went up on Tuesday morning. It sold for $1.348M. $300k over asking!

#110 joe on 03.10.21 at 5:48 pm

Central Bank monetary policy that enriches real estate agents at the expense of families.

Welcome to Canada.

#111 BK on 03.10.21 at 5:48 pm

So is our CB speaking for the US of A?? Nah, they will be forced to raise once our neighbors to the south do. If not, $40 cauliflower!

#112 Loonie Doctor on 03.10.21 at 5:49 pm

#91 Concerned Citizen on 03.10.21 at 5:09 pm

I get your gist. However, Monaco is like $5000US per square foot. It is rarified air there.
-LD

#113 Do we have all the facts on 03.10.21 at 5:50 pm

Just when I thought we were seeing light at the end of the tunnel the Bank of Canada has decided to build more tunnel. What the #@&*.

#114 Steve French on 03.10.21 at 5:52 pm

If even Garth Turner is throwing in the towel… that means we are getting very, very close to the epic real estate bust that we all knew this was building towards over the past 40 years.

Specufesters gonna specufest. This historical process will just need to play out until the contradictions of capital become so massive that the entire property bubble goes supernova.

It is clear that the government is leaving the housing market to its own fate.

And then, after the last greater fool comes forward, it all collapses in on itself like a dark star, for 3 or 4 generations.

Leaving only Garth Turner, has Porsche driving financial advisors, and a few of us select steerage class residents of the Greater Fool blog the only ones left standing.

Strap in folks. We are going supernova.

Did ya’ll really think this could end any other way?

Onwards to our destiny!!!!!!!!!!

#115 Reximus on 03.10.21 at 5:58 pm

I have another crazy ‘free-market’ concept as a possible solution to this supply-starved RE situation: build a lot more dwellings.

#116 Dire on 03.10.21 at 5:59 pm

Garth you seem to have taken the position that the housing bubble is only a recent thing in Canada when you acknowledged that the bubble existed back in 08/09. And, using this, you argue as though it is only now that younger generations have been priced out.

If we assign the existence of the housing bubble to the years 08/09 – as you originally argued using the economic fundamentals of that time – it becomes clear that the dire situation that exists now is, in fact, exponentially worse.

The bubble will burst on its own without intervention and the results will be catastrophic for many. And investors will not be spared.

#117 Steve French on 03.10.21 at 5:59 pm

My only regret in all this is that we lost Smoking Man along the way…

He would have been so proud of us all for having lived through the supernova/red dwarf phase of the Great Canadian Property Mania, and survived.

Here’s to you Smoking Man! I raise a glass of JD to your memory.

Up there in the great big sky… hanging out by the Pearly Gates with St. Peter and St. Paul….

…. keepin’ yer eye out, for all us sinners down below.

#118 Jem on 03.10.21 at 6:02 pm

Hmmm… a “strong housing market” will lead to an economic recovery as suggested by the Bank of Canada, doesn’t add up with market growth being esp recently based on precarious indebtedness.

#119 NSNG on 03.10.21 at 6:03 pm

Not shocked. The CBs of the world serve the banking system, not the public, not the government. When push comes to shove it is the public that will be thrown under the bus.

Maybe this $8 2×4 between the eyes is enough to wake people up.

They simply do not fear the mob.

#120 Stone on 03.10.21 at 6:10 pm

#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm
Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?

———

Like I already told you, don’t care. You do your disgusting self and I’ll do me. After all, I’m already retired and enjoying a full head of hair. Can you say the same?

Since someone is asking, B&D at 7.75% ytd. While I type that, I’m also running my hand through my…full head of hair. Luxurious.

#121 Cash is King on 03.10.21 at 6:11 pm

Come on people! This is all pre-election sunshine, lollypops and rainbows. Do not want to scare the youngins before the summer election. Get the majority first then have 4 more years to figure out how to get the youngins out of this mess.

Yes the CB is supposed to be seperate from the FM and PM. Does anyone still beleive that?

Look on the bright side. No complaints about $8 cauliflower this winter.

#122 Jack on 03.10.21 at 6:19 pm

So I understood the following:
1. BoC keeps the mortgage rates low
2. The inventory is very very low
3. The housing market is 24% of the GDP
4. Politicians need to show a growth in GDP
5. The rebound of the economy is mostly because of the growing prices of the houses
6. Nobody will do anything to cool off the market.

Who still thinks the housing prices will go down? Aren’t these arguments enough to understand that the politicians will always try to keep the RE afloat, no matter what?
I will not be surprised if in 5 years we’ll have “government support for the overly indebted home owners”. I mean, why not?

#123 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 6:22 pm

#117 Stone on 03.10.21 at 6:10 pm
#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm

Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?

———–

Like I already told you, don’t care. You do your disgusting self and I’ll do me. After all, I’m already retired and enjoying a full head of hair. Can you say the same?

Since someone is asking, B&D at 7.75% ytd. While I type that, I’m also running my hand through my…full head of hair. Luxurious.

———–

Haha. No, I most definitely do not have a full head of hair… but, based on your history here, I asked my 8-ball:

Is Stone lying again?

It said: ‘Most definitely, if not about his hair, then something else. Oh, and good work whomping his returns!’

#124 KNOW IT ALL on 03.10.21 at 6:24 pm

“I GIVE UP”

Cause you thought the crypto-currency markets were so corrupt.

NAH – No Market in the word more corrupt than the Canadian housing market.

Lenders, pushers, flippers, and borrowers – All corrupt!!!

Bout time you caught on.

Now let’s focus on liquid investible assets.

#125 Mosey on 03.10.21 at 6:27 pm

Interest rates cannot be increased. Consider that a one tenth percent interest rate increase would cost the US gov $800Bil a year in interest payments. This is the world we live in. Inflation is going to increase home prices even as bidding wars drive up prices. I believe, and I never thought I would, but now I do, now is the time to buy a house if you can afford it. There will be no lower home prices for a long, long time. And, you will trundle in to renew your mortgage in five years at the same rate you have today. Think about it. The only way govts pay off their debt is through inflation. CBs think they can keep it at a healthy 2%…kudos if they do…but if they cannot control it, ruh roh!

#126 Brian Ripley on 03.10.21 at 6:36 pm

I have my chart of Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade published with the latest data.
http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

Here are some 10 year changes:

Household Mortgage Debt: UP 66%
Total Household Debt: UP 56%
Net Trade: DOWN 24%
FDI Out vs FDI In: UP 633%
GDP: UP 15%

I don’t want to defend the Bank Of Canada but on the 4Q 2020 Net Trade data, 82% of the monthly trade data have been negative in the last 12 years and for over 20 years the Foreign Direct Investment OUT has been higher than IN which means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour.

One can see that under the present institutional regime, the potential recovery out of this pandemic is still under a blanket of complex forces.

And of course the widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle which is a good setup if one has fully indexed future earnings locked in.

But very few of us have. In 2016 the PBO (Parliamentary Budget Office) constructed a High Net Worth Family database: http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/household-net-worth and the bottom 40% of us have less than 50k net worth while the middle 40% have less than 100k net worth.

House owners have indeed seen potential increases in net worth since 2016 but a lot of expense and loss of income has also piled up in the last 4 years.

Canada has a land mass relative to population greater than the U.S. and greater than China. We have resources and an educated workforce. Surely we could build a better more equitable society by investing in Canada and Canadians.

#127 Scott on 03.10.21 at 6:38 pm

Garth, do you think Tiff’s hands are tied by CAD/USD? As you say, it’s pretty obvious he’s not responding to domestic indicators. I’m worried that the BoC needs to go toe to toe with the Fed regardless of the domestic consequences. But the end will come sooner for Canada (smaller bond market, more debt, less economic diversification, end of high-cost oil, etc). The Fed is not stopping the bus anytime soon and will keep driving even if Canada hits a wall. Can I get your take on what it could mean if there are liquidity issues in the Canadian bond market? My gut says a CAD crash. But, part of me thinks the BoC failing to match Fed QE could actually lead to yields spiking out of control, CAD apprecation, and subsequent failures in RE and exports. That’s where logic is taking me, but I admit it sounds implausible and would love clarification. Thanks.

#128 Sunny Daze on 03.10.21 at 6:47 pm

Any reduction in liquidity now from these levels is de facto tightening. Can’t even happen as there are now higher levels of debt to roll over.

And forget inflation. China controls that.

What we are doing is deflationary.

#129 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

#90 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 5:05 pm
#70 Faron on 03.10.21 at 4:33 pm

No surprise that you opt to take the 1 in 10,000 odds that climate change isn’t anthro. You rebel you!

The IPCC report clearly lays out what they mean when the say “likely”, “very likely” or “almost certain”. They are directly tied to statistical confidence levels. Those levels will never be 0 and never 1 because variance will always exist in a data set.

I like to point out that, according to statistical mechanics, there’s a non-zero chance that you can walk through a wall. You seem like just the person to try…

#130 Terry on 03.10.21 at 6:55 pm

We should all sure that ANY politician who had anything to do with the economy lock-downs get turfed out on their ears! No politician who was responsible for any of the mistaken economic lock-downs should EVER get re-elected! Lets get a new group in power. Toss out all 3 Government traitors…………..Liberals, Conservatives and the NDP!!!!!

#131 mark on 03.10.21 at 6:58 pm

Overpriced real-estate has been a constant theme on here for years…..decades, what has changed….nothing uppa, uppa, uppa, it goes so what, it is what it is till it changes.
Looks like the smart ones are the ones that have real-estate, good on them, keep the fire burning, but bearded wise one, this time its different you have allies……….this time chanting the same song, maybe this time your right and RE will grind lower? Most likely not………….just yet?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/one-of-the-biggest-bubbles-of-all-time-rosenberg-warns-on-housing-1.1575089

#132 East Coast Life Style on 03.10.21 at 7:02 pm

#10 Jim

I’m originally from Listowel, where prices have also gone insane. Can’t believe the price you mentioned for Clinton, of all places. Good luck with your search.

#133 Lee on 03.10.21 at 7:10 pm

Was looking at some Toronto sales prices today. Not listings. Sales. People have gone insane.

#134 DON on 03.10.21 at 7:11 pm

124 Sunny Daze on 03.10.21 at 6:47 pm
Any reduction in liquidity now from these levels is de facto tightening. Can’t even happen as there are now higher levels of debt to roll over.

And forget inflation. China controls that.

What we are doing is deflationary

*************

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/china-consumer-prices-fall-for-second-month-producer-costs-jump

#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm

#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

Well, all I can say is that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old and has gone through millions of climate changes during that time. Remember the Earth had the climate to support dinosaurs for millions of years. I believe climate acts in cycles, like many other things like sound for example. Not to mention the Sun which is our largest source of energy and goes through sun spot cycles. I am skeptical that 200 years of the “industrial revolution” all of a sudden changed a very complex system which I don’t think any person can fully understand. But I’m apparently not a very smart person because I like to try walking through walls!

#136 Concerned Citizen on 03.10.21 at 7:18 pm

112 Loonie Doctor:

That was a joke about Monaco. The in jest implication being that before long Canadian real estate would be even more expensive than Monaco’s. At least, I hope it’s in jest. With Tiff “Hear no evil, see no evil” Macklem in charge, who the heck knows.

#137 Sara on 03.10.21 at 7:28 pm

#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

“Well, all I can say is that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old and has gone through millions of climate changes during that time.”

=====================
Never before, until very recently, has there been an animal smart enough and greedy enough to manipulate the natural world to such a degree as to cause irreparable harm. So intelligent in many ways, and yet so stupidly short-sighted and destructive.

#138 westcdn on 03.10.21 at 7:31 pm

There is a wave of liquidity ahead but it will abate. Debt does have limits. I do not see higher interest rates down the road. Sure there will be times they bump up. The trend of cheap money will remain for dog knows how long.

My perception is the velocity of money is more important than the quantity these days. With people buying overpriced homes (non productive assets), the lack of good jobs for the younger and demographics (old people are cheap), free cash flow to chase goods and services are dying on the vine.

Build back better! Ha, you have to destroy first. I get the need to fight climate change and Covid. I just don’t like the answers being championed. The road to hell is lined with good intentions.

I read this comment from another site (gasp). Morality is doing the right thing regardless of what you are told. Obedience is doing what you are told regardless what is right.

I am no fan of working twice as hard for half as much but neither is obedience. I have been moving money into the US (small fish in a large ocean). I decided to park my surplus US funds in BIT (nyse). Very risky but I need time to evaluate best options. The US is kinda cool when it comes to financial judiciary disclosures – nothing is perfect but they do try more than Northside.

South Dakota, the unrecognized US tax less champion. Amazing what lax trust laws can do for you. I still like south Idaho as a place for me to live. I do like seasons.

I make choices and will live with them and not blame a-holes… I do not forget. I will learn, survive (with as many as I can) then carry on.

My WW2 uncle Fred may have been lucky running into 2nd rate troops led by incompetent officers. He did order what was needed to win a war and some of his men did die. He built a crack platoon – they were miserable. He had to deal with cold & hunger.

I here lessons sudd I heard. I don’t want to be mean but… (GFY).

#139 Drill Baby Drill on 03.10.21 at 7:42 pm

#108 I like your way of thinking. No more risk for the tax payer only for the poor down trodden banks.

#140 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 7:44 pm

I don’t get how they figure inflation is below 2%. I just bought a roasted chicken at co-op and it set me back $14. It wasn’t too long ago it would have been less than $9. Prices throughout the store are doing the same thing. The produce section is particularly bad. About the only thing that I haven’t noticed spiraling upwards is milk, but that was artificially high to begin with due to the quota system.

I believe the problem is in the calculation. “Owner’s equivalent rent”, for example, substitutes rent or equivalent rent for the cost of housing. But with interest rates at sub 2%, the true cost of housing is artificially suppressed. Those cheap mortgages also have the effect of limiting actual rents by making the monthly on a million dollar mortgage affordable, and thus a viable option if rents get too high.

And then of course there is all the hedonic adjustments and substitution they factor in. I don’t care if my computer now has a 2.2 gigahertz processor in it, I now need one for every member of the family and have to replace them every 4 years or so. And it doesn’t really do anything that my old XP machine couldn’t do 15 years ago, except maybe stream Netflix wirelessly.

The fact is that the CPI does not represent anything close to what people are actually experiencing when house prices are going up $200,000 a year and you need a HELOC to go to the grocery store. We aren’t actually getting any richer. Instead the value of our wages is collapsing. The money is only worth what it will buy.

All of the solutions show either a lack of understanding of what money is or a complete understanding and a diabolic effort to destroy it a little at a time at first, and then all at once.

For example UBI and MMT, or $15 an hour for example. Why should the minimum wage be $15/h, and not $7? “Well $7 isn’t enough to live on” comes the retort. Ya well with a chicken costing $14 I suppose that is true. But why is the chicken $14? And why don’t we get ahead of this thing and set the minimum wage at $30/h? Since labor is the root of all production (including capital accumulation), wherever you set the minimum wage just causes all prices to adjust over time until everyone is right back where they started in terms of purchasing power. The invisible hand cannot be thwarted, it will have the final say. All prices will adjust until they reflect the relative value of the underlying goods and services as compared to each other. So if a chicken is worth $7 when the minimum wage is $7, raising the minimum wage to $15 will make the chicken worth $15. It is unavoidable.

It also means that if a house was $200,000 when the minimum wage was $7, betting on the house going to $400,000 after a period of adjustment when the minimum wage is raised to $15 is a good bet.

I think what we are seeing here is people are front-running the inflation that everyone can clearly see coming.

#141 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 7:46 pm

#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm
Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?

————————————————

Comparing apples to oranges??? Not a very good engineer. If you really want to compare…I’m up 43% YTD. Thanks XPENG, BLDP, LSPD, GSY and sold them 3 days before the markets took a dump. Now, come back when you actually have something worthwhile to post.

#142 Kilt on 03.10.21 at 7:49 pm

Does that mean go variable?
;)

Kilt

#143 Flop... on 03.10.21 at 7:50 pm

Probably gone from the Canuck Buck stage to the Trudeau Tickets part of the carnival ride…

M46BC

#144 Wrk.dover on 03.10.21 at 7:50 pm

Shearwater (Halifax) normally temperature goes below -10, 30 times per year.

2020, five times.

More than just Re is hitting the moon!

#145 Sunburned Canuck on 03.10.21 at 7:54 pm

I don’t know what the fuss is about. I totally trust the Canadian Feds and Trudeau in steering the country with precision and leadership. Anyone challenging them has no brains.
Get with the program!!

#146 Capt. Serious on 03.10.21 at 7:55 pm

I think this can only end really badly at this point.

#147 Stone on 03.10.21 at 7:59 pm

#123 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 6:22 pm
#117 Stone on 03.10.21 at 6:10 pm
#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm

Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?

———–

Like I already told you, don’t care. You do your disgusting self and I’ll do me. After all, I’m already retired and enjoying a full head of hair. Can you say the same?

Since someone is asking, B&D at 7.75% ytd. While I type that, I’m also running my hand through my…full head of hair. Luxurious.

———–

Haha. No, I most definitely do not have a full head of hair… but, based on your history here, I asked my 8-ball:

Is Stone lying again?

It said: ‘Most definitely, if not about his hair, then something else. Oh, and good work whomping his returns!’

———

An engineer…relying on a magic 8-ball. Yeeeaah…

Apparently, some dufus engineer was extolling the virtues of a perfect bridge earlier today and got some non-flattering feedback on the utility of said bridge. And apparently, none of it was from me.

Lick lips…big smile.

#148 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:00 pm

#48 Drill Baby Drill on 03.10.21 at 3:39 pm
Put his cd on repeat ” Canadians will not learn until there is an economic melt down”.

————————————–

If history is any indication, if (when) the meltdown comes the general population will not understand why it happened. They will have no more understanding of the causes after the event than they had before it. Therefore they will keep clamoring for more of the same.

#149 glenn wood on 03.10.21 at 8:02 pm

Tiff is proving himself to be a real duffer.

#150 Bill Grable on 03.10.21 at 8:04 pm

Canada = another Third World Country?

In BC – Covid shots are being given to JUNKIES before the elderly and at risk. I’ll be lucky to get one before the end of April and I am 71, in a few weeks.

People are so blind, they can’t see inflation?

The Grocery Bill – for my brave foray into a germ factory =$300.00 – people are buying $100,000 Pickup trucks. Try and find a house in Vancouver – unless you are rich.

Taxes are going to be insane and people keep whacking on debt’s door.

I think they are insane.

The Government of BC is run by people that can’t spell Cat – and Mr. Socks is a disgrace.

Please don’t bury the blog, Mr. Turner. It is one of the few islands of sanity left.

#151 Sunny Daze on 03.10.21 at 8:04 pm

134 Don

Article makes my point as the headline is misleading.

Easy year over year comp on oil and shipping…won’t last. World is awash in oil.

They still drive growth and productivity. And the chart is tame as can be.

Now do Canada.

#152 Loonie Feeder on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm

What to do with the Loonies? Will that lunatic Macklem let the Loonie fall below 60 cents because America’s bonds are surging in yield?

#153 45north on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm

some guy From a pragmatic point of view, the real estate industry in Canada offers nothing to the world. It enriches people who do very little for the betterment of Canada, they don’t invent, help or do anything vital. It’s an industry that sucks the life out of everything else.

some guy in response to condescending judgement
I’m doing fine but I want better for the country, I’m thinking beyond myself.

me too, I’m doing fine but I want better for the country. The Bank of Canada statement is an example of cynical self-interest. As Garth says We’re on our own. The Tiffer has left the building. Nobody’s in control. The worst thing is that established political power is determined to preserve the illusion that the country is fine. It’s not. I pray that their schemes will be uncovered. That they will be rebuked.

#154 Faron on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm

#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

My background is in paleoclimatology. You are wrong. Or, to be scientific about it, you are wrong to about the tenth decimal place.

Trust me, you don’t want to argue earth’s climate history with me. I don’t know what your profession is, but I wouldn’t try to fight facts with you in it even if it was burger flipping. Running a kitchen looks like skilled work.

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 8:07 pm

I have a niece that works for TELUS and she says that the Monday Vaccine call-in fiasco In BC was caused by the WFH network not being properly connected to the main network.
And rumor has it, that many staff working from home were overwhelmed and simply refused to answer the phone.
The CEO is furious, and there is talk about reevaluating the WFH program.

#156 The West on 03.10.21 at 8:07 pm

“Power will enable itself onto society by controlling the mechanisms by which that society functions. By the time the destitution has led to social reaction, it is almost always too late.”

– Noam Chomsky

#157 Kat on 03.10.21 at 8:14 pm

We had planned to move, now we are going to stay until next year to see how all this pans out. Even considering applying for work in the US.
If anyone has leads on well paying HVAC jobs in the US drop me a line.

#158 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:14 pm

#126 Brian Ripley on 03.10.21 at 6:36 pm

“Canada has a land mass relative to population greater than the U.S. and greater than China. We have resources and an educated workforce. Surely we could build a better more equitable society by investing in Canada and Canadians.”

————————————

The Canadian land mass is largely uninhabitable. That is why our land mass relative to population is so much greater than the U.S. Siberia is really big too but nobody lives there either. Canada is really big, but the habitable areas are full, and even some of the uninhabitable regions.

Imagine Edmonton at -30C and the lights go off for a week a.k.a. Texas. It would make covid look like no big deal.

#159 Quintilian on 03.10.21 at 8:15 pm

“Price escalation until we hit the wall of buyer disgust and financial despair.”

The bubble will be not pop until its time.

Beautiful… just let it be.

#160 WUL on 03.10.21 at 8:22 pm

Thanks Garth.

I’m dismayed and seeking a cure. I have never begrudged paying income tax. I’ve been quite content to pay my taxes because of the great advantages that were handed to me in the birth lottery and the availability of an el cheapo law degree back in the day which permitted a reasonable living. But, with April 30 approaching, I’m cranky. Is it possible that I am becoming a conservative voter? Is there a vaccine for that? Goodness, I’m sending coin to Ottawa for 2020!

Should I just man up?

FLOP:

Hey Pal. Things are just fine in Ft. Mac these days. Longer days and it was only -23 degrees this morning avec wind chill. Feeling chipper hence this plea to re-enter the kennel here. Take care.

I still contemplate the purchase of a crawler tractor. Knocking stuff down is great fun. Go Flames.

M65Taiga

#161 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:23 pm

#79 Sara on 03.10.21 at 4:47 pm
#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 4:17 pm
@#193 Sara
“It is quite possible to prevent one’s pets from killing wildlife. Also, it is much safer for the pet if it is not allowed to be outdoors unsupervised.”
+++

Bwahahaha.
Ever heard the expression,
“It’s like herding cats…”

Good luck.

————————-
Thanks, but good luck is not a requirement – responsible pet ownership is what it takes. Keep your cats in your home. That’s it. Easily done if you are motivated to do it, as I have been. Ask me if you need some tips as to how to keep your indoor cat mentally stimulated – they’re smart and need it.

—————————————-

My hunter cat has killed one baby bunny, tried to kill another but we rescued it, 2 pocket gophers, about 6 birds, and over 300 mice. Actually so many mice I can’t keep count. Can be 2 a day in the spring, that I know of because she brought them home. Since nobody wants the mice in the house, the hunter cat stays and gets to go outdoors. She is a celebrity among the neighbors.

#162 KLNR on 03.10.21 at 8:26 pm

@#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 2:39 pm
Words to remember next election.

“The budget will balance itself”

at least put the whole sentence in there if you’re going to use quotes.

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 8:33 pm

@#144 Wrk.dvr
“Shearwater (Halifax)”

++++

Ahhh CFB Shearwater.
1970’s

I used to climb over the fence , go to the end of the runway with my friends and wait for MP’s to show up in jeeps and chase us.
As we grew older we would canoe in the “off limits” lake that the Navy helicopters would practice take offs and landings.
Got yelled at a few times by the pilots.

Great fun.

#164 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 8:41 pm

Hey Tron,
Before you go debating with the experts, give this a read.
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-perils-and-pitfalls-of-doing-your-own-research-about-covid-19-or-any-other-science/
Yes, it applies to you, it applies to me, it especially applies to TurnerNation and it even applies to Faron in areas that don’t pertain to paleoclimatology.
Don’t feel bad.

#165 Flop... on 03.10.21 at 8:42 pm

#160 WUL on 03.10.21 at 8:22 pm
Thanks Garth.

I’m dismayed and seeking a cure. I have never begrudged paying income tax. I’ve been quite content to pay my taxes because of the great advantages that were handed to me in the birth lottery and the availability of an el cheapo law degree back in the day which permitted a reasonable living. But, with April 30 approaching, I’m cranky. Is it possible that I am becoming a conservative voter? Is there a vaccine for that? Goodness, I’m sending coin to Ottawa for 2020!

Should I just man up?

FLOP:

Hey Pal. Things are just fine in Ft. Mac these days. Longer days and it was only -23 degrees this morning avec wind chill. Feeling chipper hence this plea to re-enter the kennel here. Take care.

I still contemplate the purchase of a crawler tractor. Knocking stuff down is great fun. Go Flames.

M65Taiga

//////////////////////////////////////

Hey WULLY, good to see you coming out of hibernation.

I know exactly why you have awoken and are feeling chipper.

Australian Rules Football 2021 season kicks off next week and your beloved Geelong Cats will once again be among the favourites.

I think there will be reduced crowds and there might even be people doing crazy stuff like drinking a beer with their mates.

Haven’t been in Canada half my life yet, so I am probably still 60% Australian, 40% Canadian, I’m an unbalanced individual who is somewhat diversified.

As far as taxes go this year, I always owe so I hustle to get it done on time every year and last year was no exception, but I was kinda surprised that they didn’t extend it like last year.

Do you think Ottawa has run out of money and needs it desperately?

Maybe someone was cleaning and accidentally unplugged the printer…

M46BC

#166 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.10.21 at 8:45 pm

A couple of years ago a bungalow in London, On went for $300,000. Now the most basic bungalow is $600,000 in a modest hood. Never did I imagine prices similar to Rexdale, On in London. The retired can move to a much cheaper country with better health care. Many foreign born can repatriate to a more affordable and warmer land than Canada. The young will have to decide do I kill myself in Canada or try my luck in the states.

#167 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:47 pm

#137 Sara on 03.10.21 at 7:28 pm
#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

“Well, all I can say is that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old and has gone through millions of climate changes during that time.”

=====================
Never before, until very recently, has there been an animal smart enough and greedy enough to manipulate the natural world to such a degree as to cause irreparable harm. So intelligent in many ways, and yet so stupidly short-sighted and destructive.

————————————-

Success in nature is not based solely on what we might call intelligence, assuming we actually have any. (I’m thinking “trial and error” is how most things get accomplished after a few explosions as in for example SpaceX. Why can’t the first rocket work?)

If aliens came to earth with no preference for bipedals, they would assume the planet was run by termites.

From Quora:

“How much we all humans weight – 350 million ton

Ants will almost equal humans with total weight – 300 million ton

However, termites beat both humans and ants with total – 445 million ton

Antarctic krill, these tiny aquatic creatures weight – 500 million ton, seriously those tiny creatures weight more than all humans ?

But then comes the mind blowing fact, the total weight of ocean-dwelling microbes

Prepare your self ……….

its estimated between 350,000 and 550,000 million tonnes YEEE And it’s only ocean microbes. What about land bacteria ? Does anybody has answer ? The following article has estimate

What Weighs More – Bacteria or Every Single Person on Earth? ”

and

“According to Wikipedia on ants:

“It has been estimated by E.O. Wilson that the total number of individual ants alive in the world at any one time is between one and ten quadrillion (short scale). According to this estimate, the total biomass of all the ants in the world is approximately equal to the total biomass of the entire human race.”

So they’re definitely a contender.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant#cite_ref-142

Since ants and termites (and wasps and bees) are closely related I think if we add them all together we can safely say we are not the dominant life form on the planet. Sorry to those of you who thought we were.

#168 Mr Canada on 03.10.21 at 8:57 pm

Housing up 18-25% in a bubble but wages are stagnant. Inflation is already above 2% in food, energy, housing supplies, followed by higher wage demands coming soon. Borrowed Liquidity & Deficits from T2 and Biden is way too much and too late in the cycle with unintended consequences (inflation). GDP will be 8% in the US — but Garth is right, the trend might be your friend, and don’t fight the Fed….

#169 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 8:59 pm

#155 Ponzius Pilatus

The CEO is furious.

I’ve heard that he has a really bad temper.

#170 Niagara Region on 03.10.21 at 9:08 pm

Outcome of a trial in British Columbia involving an American billionaire married to a Walmart heiress: “Billionaire Wins Legal Battle to Deny Public Access to B.C. Lakes.”
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/billionaire-wins-legal-battle-to-deny-public-access-to-b-c-lakes-kroenke-walton

#171 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 9:08 pm

So at least in Calgary, we are, so far as I can figure, seeing a divergence between “mean” and “median”. Lower priced houses have a bid, expensive houses do not. The more expensive the house, the bigger the discount when it sells and the longer it takes. I guess it makes sense since the O&G industry laid off all of the managers about 4 or 5 years ago. Never thought about that, did you, Mrs. VP! Lay off all your managers and there won’t be anybody to buy your house!

#172 Pasha on 03.10.21 at 9:21 pm

Bill Grable, are you on Harwood?

#173 Garth's Son Drake on 03.10.21 at 9:22 pm

Most of the big gains will settle in housing this year. +20% probably. But this is just an adjustment to the massive drop in rates. Same thing was noted after the financial crisis.

Do rates drop more? If so, prices are going up more as credit availability will go up.

It does not look like rates will be going up in any meaningful way at anytime before 2024.

Will prices drop on houses? Doubt it. Unless of course rates were to go up.

Langley lot line homes (basically a single detached without a yard 3 ft from your neighbours side vented gas appliance that blows right into your well window so that your CO detector goes off due to CO build) are going at 1.4, up 300k in the last 2 years.

There is a lot of talk about Canadians having to meet a 4.79 rate and that the consumer is in good shape for a tripling in rates. That is bs. There are so many credit unions offering ways around this.

The consumer is and always will be maxed for what credit is available. Just look at the discounted rate to figure that threshold out.

We have not seen any sustained uptick in rates for like ever.

If I was in a position of buying and could not afford much, I would either accept renting forever or angle into small/remote affordable place – if any will even exist in Canada after this year.

First it was Vancouver. Then the lower mainland, then inland cities, now the entire province. All home owners are becoming millionaires by way of their home value. This used to just be a Vancouver thing a decade ago.

The fact is most of BC and ON are out of reach for anyone relying on a wage without a windfall. So, renting would be the next best option but it is hard to see how rents will not squeeze and totally steal the majority of income of such people because they are trapped. This game will be played for years, decades or more. In the meantime, life will pass.

Also take note that these massive increases in home prices happened at a time when immigration basically came to a stand still and jobs got whacked, so you can see how the money that is still able to play within the country by those not losing their job and becoming more flexible with work locations can set the bar.

The cities are a bit slow right now, but once the borders open the cities will be back. Massive inflow of people coming to make up lost ground.

And this money eventually gets passed along to next gen.

#174 Doug t on 03.10.21 at 9:23 pm

#161 nopulse

Be responsible not an idiot – this isn’t 1950

#175 Q&A on 03.10.21 at 9:28 pm

Garth, should we finally expect some of the canadian banks do a stock splits which in effect would comfirm that the bank ceos truly belive in the economy. Thank you.

#176 Doug t on 03.10.21 at 9:29 pm

#114 stevo French

Very poetic = spot on

#177 Faron on 03.10.21 at 9:33 pm

#167 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:47 pm
#137 Sara on 03.10.21 at 7:28 pm
#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

Biting tongue pretty hard here ’cause I assume you are kinda joking. But, man, we are effed as a species with that perspective. A being visiting earth for the first time would first notice all the light being emitted. In fact, that light would probably be the siren’s call they followed to get here. Once they landed, I’d like to think they would realize almost none of it comes from termites or ants for their antennea are far too small and cold.

#178 Annek on 03.10.21 at 9:34 pm

45north on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm
some guy From a pragmatic point of view, the real estate industry in Canada offers nothing to the world. It enriches people who do very little for the betterment of Canada, they don’t invent, help or do anything vital. It’s an industry that sucks the life out of everything else.

some guy in response to condescending judgement
I’m doing fine but I want better for the country, I’m thinking beyond myself.

me too, I’m doing fine but I want better for the country. The Bank of Canada statement is an example of cynical self-interest. As Garth says We’re on our own. The Tiffer has left the building. Nobody’s in control. The worst thing is that established political power is determined to preserve the illusion that the country is fine. It’s not. I pray that their schemes will be uncovered. That they will be rebuked.
———————————-
I used to be so proud to be a Canadian. Now, I am sad for this country. I am ashamed of the leader the Sheeple have chosen, and will vote for again. T2 spends like a spoiled child , never having known value for the dollar.

#179 BoC will roll over on 03.10.21 at 9:36 pm

Once the FED signals they are moving to raising rates the BoC quack like a duck in parity …Canada doesn’t makes its own interest rate decisions. Remember 2008 when our buffoons lowered rates when Canada didn’t even have a financial crisis ? More yield tantrums coming …LMAO….Central bankers are buffoons blowing bubbles.

#180 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.10.21 at 9:45 pm

Just wanting to make sure I have this right.

-The economy sucks
-Housing is a strength in the economy so we want to embrace its growth by artificially suppressing interest rates
-House prices go stupid and people will buy at any cost
-People spend all their money on mortgage payments and property taxes.
-Then, because they have no money, they don’t spend into the greater economy on consumer items, don’t invest in productive assets and don’t start new businesses

Can someone explain how this is going to help the economy?

Barring a major correction, I could reasonably foresee a day when housing locks up. No one sells because they can’t afford the next step on the property ladder and those who are non-owners just give up even trying.

#181 RT2020 on 03.10.21 at 9:45 pm

They say Canada can’t do anything right anymore? Well let’s show ’em what a proper bubble looks like!

Come on baby, let’s light this candle!

^
/ \
|==|
| |
| |
| |
/___\
| T |
| R |
| E |
| B |
/ | | \
/ | | \
/__|_|__\
/_\/_\
######
########
######
####
####
##
##
##
##

#182 Sara on 03.10.21 at 9:46 pm

#177 Faron on 03.10.21 at 9:33 pm
#167 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:47 pm
#137 Sara on 03.10.21 at 7:28 pm
#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

Biting tongue pretty hard here ’cause I assume you are kinda joking. But, man, we are effed as a species with that perspective.
===================

Yup. We are effed. Smart, yet incredibly stupid at the same time, having no clue how to harness our collective intelligence to sustain rather than to pillage and destroy finite resources. We have some quick evolving to do, or we will soon be history. I’m betting on the latter. :(

#183 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 9:51 pm

#147 Stone on 03.10.21 at 7:59 pm

An engineer…relying on a magic 8-ball. Yeeeaah…

Apparently, some dufus engineer was extolling the virtues of a perfect bridge earlier today and got some non-flattering feedback on the utility of said bridge. And apparently, none of it was from me.

Lick lips…big smile.

————-

You win. I can’t fight the Black Knight. It’s just… indecorous. A bit embarrassing.

#184 Yuus bin Haad on 03.10.21 at 9:57 pm

Oh, good – with Trump gone we can talk about the REAL problem politicians and bureaucrats and, imagine that, they’ve been here the whole time

#185 Drinking on 03.10.21 at 9:58 pm

Garth, luv you, meaning on how much you have tried as well as previous posters to educate who wish to be educated; lately even your posters have become; not sure what to say about it certainly not in any form what is was just a few years back. Seriously people. WTF???

Where we are going in this so called country is incredibly bad situation; we need to make a new arrangement and split up; the West will not put up with a few Eastern jurisdiction’s that vote 30% or 35% to dictate to the rest of us on how it should be. It is absolutely ridiculous; I see great turmoil in the near future. Seriously, how long can one be held hostage by greater Toronto telling us how this country shall be ran??

Youngsters, get your education and get the hell out of this country, your welcome!

#186 Drinking on 03.10.21 at 10:02 pm

Correction. You are welcome! What a fricken shit show; yep, I am effing angry!!!

#187 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 10:03 pm

#154 Faron on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm

“My background is in paleoclimatology.” Well then, you should know better.

#164 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 8:41 pm

What are the perils of not doing your own research? Probably kind of like the wolf leading the sheep to slaughter.

#188 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 10:23 pm

#169 S.Bby on 03.10.21 at 8:59 pm
#155 Ponzius Pilatus

The CEO is furious.

I’ve heard that he has a really bad temper.
————-
Well, can’t blame the guy.
This screw-up could reduce his bonus by 500k.
From 10 mill to 9.5 mill.

#189 Genbizx on 03.10.21 at 10:25 pm

So we vote the idiots in Ottawa out. We turf the Tiff too. Conservatives aren’t sexy but they understand economics and an important little thing called “the future”

#190 Robert Ash on 03.10.21 at 10:41 pm

Labor Market Deflation is the big challenge for the next 2-3 years. It will be difficult to have every laid off or sidelined employee, back to work, with switch like speed. Many are advocating Labor Inflation. When one is unemployed, CERB is finished, stimulus tapered, do you think that unemployed person, will hold out for more money. Or even the pay package, they were receiving prior to the Pandemic?

#191 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 10:50 pm

#129 Faron
I like to point out that, according to statistical mechanics, there’s a non-zero chance that you can walk through a wall. You seem like just the person to try…
—————-
I’m not a quantum physical guy, but I read somewhere that on a sub-atomic level, particles can go through a brick wall.
Ergo, if you could do a “honey, I shrank the kids”, a person indeed could walk through a wall.

#192 DON on 03.10.21 at 10:52 pm

151 Sunny Daze on 03.10.21 at 8:04 pm
134 Don

Article makes my point as the headline is misleading.

Easy year over year comp on oil and shipping…won’t last. World is awash in oil.

They still drive growth and productivity. And the chart is tame as can be.

Now do Canada.

*****************

A bloomberg article is misleading…that’s there selling point.

Canafa isn’t that productive.

#193 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 10:53 pm

#177 Faron on 03.10.21 at 9:33 pm
#167 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 8:47 pm
#137 Sara on 03.10.21 at 7:28 pm
#135 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 7:14 pm
#125 Faron on 03.10.21 at 6:53 pm

Biting tongue pretty hard here ’cause I assume you are kinda joking. But, man, we are effed as a species with that perspective. A being visiting earth for the first time would first notice all the light being emitted. In fact, that light would probably be the siren’s call they followed to get here. Once they landed, I’d like to think they would realize almost none of it comes from termites or ants for their antennea are far too small and cold.

————————————-

A bit tongue and cheek but also trying to highlight the idea that we aren’t nearly as important as we think we are. Humans have been around for what? Maybe 200,000 years in a recognizable form and 10,000 years as a social creature? Compared to ants which have been around for approaching 100 million? Or the earth which is 4.6 billion years old?

We aren’t killing the planet and it is hubris to think so. We are only killing ourselves. That is until the nukes go off. The nukes are the real worry, not a bit of CO2. Strangely, after 70 years of living under the prospect of nuclear Armageddon we’ve kind of forgotten about them, even though they have grown exponentially more destructive.

And well you are a scientist. You therefore know that the light and radio waves the earth has emitted has at best reached a few close by solar systems at this point. The chances that those solar systems have advanced space travel capabilities whereby they could transvers 25-50 light years of space is small, the chances they would want to even smaller.

#194 DON on 03.10.21 at 10:53 pm

151 Sunny Daze on 03.10.21 at 8:04 pm
134 Don

Article makes my point as the headline is misleading.

Easy year over year comp on oil and shipping…won’t last. World is awash in oil.

They still drive growth and productivity. And the chart is tame as can be.

Now do Canada.

*****************

A bloomberg article is misleading…that’s there selling point.

Canada isn’t that productive.

I had to correct that spelling mistake Canafa…

#195 Drinking on 03.10.21 at 10:53 pm

For those who are actually interested where the future is heading watch this by Boston Dynamics; absolutely incredible technology; it is just indescribable! Keep buying those over priced houses sheep, these things will soon replace you, lol, :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw

#196 Robert Ash on 03.10.21 at 10:57 pm

In my opinion when Greenspan, reduced artificially the time value of Money, as is Tiff, and Jerome, then it is very difficult to use metrics, like intrinsic value, future cash flows, Net Present value, Margin of Safety.
Once the Interest rate, in any Credit market cannot be predicted with some measure of accuracy, then the market has more of a Casino posture….So mixed up, for the foreseeable future.

#197 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.10.21 at 11:00 pm

Is there no way to dispose of this bank boss Tiff? I am absolutely shocked at his position.

Would love know what Carney thinks of this whole fiasco.

Really shameful on Canada and its so called leadership.

#198 T-Rev on 03.10.21 at 11:00 pm

@ #94 Concerned Citizen- Dude don’t be so dramatic. If you want cheap living and beaches, definitely GTFO of canada and go have some fun for a while. But if you really do want to stay and are concerned about housing costs, either rent and thank your landlord for his subsidization of your living costs, or better yet, move to the prairies. There’s six very livable cities in Alberta, not including Mcmurray. You can buy an older, simple, 1100sq ft detached in a leafy area or suburb of At least five of those for less than $400k, and as low as $250k in a couple. Contrary to popular belief, Alberta still has jobs. Definitely not the same career opportunities as BC or Ontario, but I’d still take my chances here over any of the remaining seven provinces. Think outside the Southern Ontario and Communist Columbia cool-aid.

#199 Nonplused on 03.10.21 at 11:05 pm

#174 Doug t on 03.10.21 at 9:23 pm
#161 nopulse

Be responsible not an idiot – this isn’t 1950

—————————

WTF? Since when is it irresponsible or idiotic to let cats kill mice? Would you rather I try and poison them all?
Along with everything else that might get into the poison? The few other animals (besides the pocket gophers, I wish the cats could get more of them so I didn’t have to trap them) I listed to show that the collateral damage the cat does is actually pretty small compared to the benefit.

People have lost all perspective. You are now an idiot if you own a cat that is a good mouser because one bird died. It is insane. I bet the owl that haunts our area has killed a lot more birds. And he’s after the cat too but the cat is on to him. She’s inside when the owl is about.

#200 Zen Investor on 03.10.21 at 11:06 pm

The Liberal Party is now “ The Bank of Canada”. All pretense aside Gerald Butts, David Axelrod and a K Street , Washington DC Democratic Party team of political assassins are running Canadian policy in the now certain run up to the reelection of His Majesty Justin Trudeau. Blinders off kids, it’s exactly as stated.

“ Tiff has left the building”.

Hahahaha, they’re taking reservations for a vaccine that might arrive 6 months from now and No, the Kielbergers won’t testify in open court on the WE scandal before the June election.

All joking aside, where do we make money with this mess? Interlisted financials are ripping.

#201 Two-thirds on 03.10.21 at 11:08 pm

Being correct, logical, and truthful does not count as virtue anymore, Garth. Levi’s woke jeans on the other hand…

When one finds oneself stuck in the asylum, the sanest course of action is to go insane.

Unlike the countries you listed, Canada has little left to support its economy outside of consumption, both of houses and house-centred goods and services, as well as of imports from productive economies. RE is now too big to fail.

And in the eve of an election bought and paid for by debt that will take another 148 years to bring back to 2015 levels, is it surprising that Tiff did not move?

BOC held consultations last year about its new target and its estimation method (it will become an average over several years instead of a quarterly data point) so the board is set for a big inflation romp to cancel out the recent sub-2% decade.

This is happening by design, not by accident.

Besides, if owning a house is NOT the goal in life, why does it matter if ~20% of households cannot afford one?

The pious concerns over real estate affordability and the minority cheering for regulation, soft-landing, or crash are all ultimately aimed at getting new entrants into the market, ironically, guaranteeing its phoenix-like endurance.

In Canada the cry is “give me housing or give me death” and its economy will get one thanks to the other.

Better help the economy by rolling a joint, pouring yourself a glass of imported scotch bought at a government owned liquor monopoly, and watch an American show on a TV made in Asia, wearing your finest foreign-made clothes sitting on your IKEA sofa!

Oh, Canada!

:(

#202 DON on 03.10.21 at 11:11 pm

#176 Doug t on 03.10.21 at 9:29 pm
#114 stevo French

Very poetic = spot on
*******

very nice indeed!

#203 Robert Ash on 03.10.21 at 11:42 pm

Real Return= Nominal Return minus Taxes and Inflation. If Inflation is in fact much greater, than the CPI basket of benchmarks, and Taxes, are almost sure to increase, the impact on Real Returns, will be muted. Then the Bond Market escalates, beyond Powel’s control, and Yikes, it is not a great road to investment success… OK for the first two quarters, but that Stimulus will be transitory. Then the Real Economic challenges, will materialize. Financial repression, is a tight rope, and somewhat desperate, and it is just starting.

#204 N00B on 03.10.21 at 11:47 pm

The government wants a housing bubble. Free money and rising house price is the only way they can earn the votes they need to stay in power. All 3 levels of government are pumping house price to give the illusion that the economy is roaring. Deficit is irrlevant, household debt is a mute point, when rising house price and free money is all they need to keep people happy.

#205 cuke and tomato picker on 03.10.21 at 11:51 pm

Bill Grable next election we will see you on cable running to get elected.

#206 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 11:56 pm

#141 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 7:46 pm

I’m up 43% YTD

————-

Wow, that’s pretty good in 2 months. Almost unbelievably good.

#207 Robert Ash on 03.10.21 at 11:59 pm

If I were in the Financial services Industry, I would try to focus my Marketing Efforts, on addressing the fact that the Millennials, for the most part were scarred by the GFR, of 2008. This is an American outcome, to some extent, however I believe that Canadians, understood, who got the breaks, and were favored with good outcomes. Since that time the Younger demographic, has been suspicious, of any asset that is not physical, and real, in Nature… only recently has that changed. Robinhood, was popular, as a Game, type activity.

#208 Drinking on 03.11.21 at 12:11 am

Just to add to my point that I am/we are so sick and tired of effing Eastern Politics here is another stupid and I mean stupid policy that these so called politicians that were voted to represent all of us decided that “oh it’s ok, we’ll do whatever you ask of us China” what a fricken joke! https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canadas-immigration-minister-defends-outsourcing-visa-office-to-company-run-by-beijing-police

#209 Jane24 on 03.11.21 at 12:30 am

Well Garth you were interested in what will happen in the next few months/years to WFH. Well the British govt was interested in the future/fate of big cities here and had an MP commission. The early results show that it is estimated that all city and town center based office firms will permanently release 30% of their current office space as they won’t need so much space. The reason they don’t need so much space is that most firms are moving to a permanent hybrid work pattern. The most popular reported option being 2 days at work per week.

Now we are not talking Mom and Pops here but major international banks, investment and insurance companies etc based in London, Manchester, Birmingham, major cities with populations of up to 8 million. One would expect in smaller towns it will be an even more permanent WFH movement. The CBI is calling it a step change in global work practices. A win all round.

The Commission will next look at how to use the released space for non-office purposes and what the chilling effect will be on city based catering and hospitality firms.

#210 Robert Ash on 03.11.21 at 12:35 am

I don’t care for Academic folks at the Helm of the B of C, and especially if they are Climate Changed biased, and woke… But let’s face it folks, Tiff et al, Polaz included, are just marching instep with the Fed…He has no choice. All small market economies, can espouse MMT, but the US sets the rates… We could actually eliminate a lot of the Bank Of Canada, if actual independent policy, was a prerequisite. Polaz was a Rebel, he soared above the US, with 25 Basis Points, in a ZIRP market. Any deviation, from the US FED, is not a real option, factoring in Exports, Currency, etc. The only real input that the B of C, offers is to suppress our Currency, to move Exports. Something I feel should not be an objective, since our Economies, are so inter connected.

#211 SoggyShorts on 03.11.21 at 3:10 am

#141 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 7:46 pm
#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm

Comparing apples to oranges??? Not a very good engineer. If you really want to compare…I’m up 43% YTD. Thanks XPENG, BLDP, LSPD, GSY and sold them 3 days before the markets took a dump. Now, come back when you actually have something worthwhile to post.

********************
At least Sail Away tells verifiable tales.
E.g.
“I’m buying some VUS this morning”
Followed 2 days later by
“VUS is up”

Did you post when you were buying and selling or just after?

One great thing about the archaic format of these forums is that they don’t allow for any revisionist history.

#212 Papabear on 03.11.21 at 5:43 am

Pardon my ignorance, but with all these commenters saying, “Time to move to the U.S.” – How exactly do you plan on doing so?
Have you actually looked into immigration as a Canadian?

It’s not as simple as driving down with a trailer and applying for a job as if you were a local.

#213 The Woosh on 03.11.21 at 7:21 am

#211 SoggyShorts on 03.11.21 at 3:10 am
#141 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 7:46 pm
#86 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm

Comparing apples to oranges??? Not a very good engineer. If you really want to compare…I’m up 43% YTD. Thanks XPENG, BLDP, LSPD, GSY and sold them 3 days before the markets took a dump. Now, come back when you actually have something worthwhile to post.
********************
At least Sail Away tells verifiable tales.
E.g.
“I’m buying some VUS this morning”
Followed 2 days later by
“VUS is up”

Did you post when you were buying and selling or just after?

One great thing about the archaic format of these forums is that they don’t allow for any revisionist history.

———————————————

Even verifiable facts don’t need to be posted when they’re pathetic.

#214 Wrk.dover on 03.11.21 at 7:32 am

2XCPP+2XOAS+1DBP=$61,600

Too much for supplement or GST rebate.

Total Fed and NS tax payable 6.3%

No wonder Canada is broke/broken!

#215 sonnydaze on 03.11.21 at 7:43 am

thanks for the enlightening article 164 Sheesh !I am always thankful for the educational content provided by Garth and sometimes by the bloggers. With great humility I suggest that the article is an attempt to move the overton window through pandering.

#216 maxx on 03.11.21 at 8:10 am

Absolute insanity.

#217 Dharma Bum on 03.11.21 at 8:16 am

#106 Reximus

It has TWO full laundry rooms, on the bottom floor and the other on the top floor, because apparently the top of design nowadays is having to choose which level you want to do laundry on, in a 3 bed house.
————————————————————————
One of them is for the new buyers to launder their money in.

#218 Neo on 03.11.21 at 8:19 am

Seems to me that Garth has been doing a bit of reverse psychology when it comes to the housing market lately…(-:

#219 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 8:30 am

@#209 Jane24
“major international banks, investment and insurance companies etc based in London, ”

++++

Work from home emptying the cities?
Pfffft.
Try Brexit

Silly me.
And here I was thinking the major Financial institutions were just leaving “The City” because of “Brexit”…….

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/27/is-londons-financial-center-doomed-to-decline-after-brexit/

10,000 jobs and counting ?

While the Brits squabble over fishing rights….

https://www.bbc.com/news/46401558

#220 Dharma Bum on 03.11.21 at 8:33 am

Crisis? What crisis?
~ Tiff Macklem

#221 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 8:39 am

Has the Volcano in Iceland , or Trump, erupted lately?

#222 Toronto RE on 03.11.21 at 8:49 am

Toronto real estate prices are on FIRE! I can’t believe how quick things are selling, and for how much. Unbelievable.

Why shouldn’t it be that one of the safest, cleanest, most stable cities in the world has among the highest RE prices in the world? Seems par for the course to me.

Extend that to Canada as a whole – certainly one of the most desirable countries to live, so why would it not be that we have among the highest real estate costs in the world? What do people expect? Bargains!?

#223 TurnerNation on 03.11.21 at 8:49 am

The Economic Lockdowns in the Former First World countries will be continuing for years. Kanada, Europe, Australia, UK.
Why: it all goes back to what we were told on Day 1 of this global New System rollout #STAYHOME!!

The new “immunity passports” and further restrictions on movement are the ultimate planned goal. Takes time to rollout. Chill. (And #stayhome!!). This has been planned out for years, the proof is here:

https://www.gavi.org/operating-model/gavis-partnership-model/bill-melinda-gates-foundation
VACCINE MARKET SHAPING
The Gates Foundation plays both a technical and financial role in the Vaccine Alliance’s efforts to shape vaccine markets. It helps to gather data to inform our decision making and provides financial support for market investments.
The Foundation invests in activities ranging from vaccine discovery through development to delivery, and encourages product innovation and new entrants into the market.

–https://id2020.org/- Yes Microsoft is a partner org on their page.

ID2020 | Digital Identity Allianceid2020.org
The ID2020 Alliance is a global partnership maximizing the potential of digital ID to improve lives.

………………..
—-Yikes: seen elsewhere

“The “jab” is an interesting choice of words for their marketing campaign. After all, in boxing “jab” is the opening move one uses to throw their opponent off/confuse them/make them open for a cross/possible knock-out.

Jab — a quick, straight punch thrown with the lead hand from the guard position.

The jab is the most important punch in a boxer’s arsenal because it provides a fair amount of its own cover and it leaves the least amount of space for a counter punch from the opponent. It has the longest reach of any punch and does not require commitment or large weight transfers. Due to its relatively weak power, the jab is often used as a tool to gauge distances, probe an opponent’s defenses, and set up heavier, more powerful punches” <—-

#224 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 9:27 am

@#222 Toronto Shill
“Why shouldn’t it be that one of the safest, cleanest, most stable cities in the world has among the highest RE prices in the world?”

+++

Until a branch falls from a tree in Ohio and the power goes out.

https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2013/08/13/blackout_2003_how_ontario_went_dark.html

#225 Sara on 03.11.21 at 9:28 am

#187 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 10:03 pm
#154 Faron on 03.10.21 at 8:05 pm

“My background is in paleoclimatology.” Well then, you should know better.
===============

Yes, he does “know better” than you do.

#226 Toronto Shill on 03.11.21 at 9:42 am

#224 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 9:27 am

That happened almost 20 years ago! Ancient history man. Is that the best knock ya got against Toronto? I was hoping for a bit better than that to be honest.

#227 jimmy on 03.11.21 at 9:44 am

DELETED Anti-vax.

#228 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 9:49 am

@#214 wrk.dvr
“2XCPP+2XOAS+1DBP=$61,600”

++++

It could be worse.
I paid more Fed/Prov taxes than your combined earnings last year……

#229 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 9:50 am

#213 The Woosh on 03.11.21 at 7:21 am

Even verifiable facts don’t need to be posted when they’re pathetic.

————

I see your 43% YTD portfolio return and raise you one personal levitation. I’m writing this from 100m above the house. Nobody can believe it.

#230 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.21 at 10:34 am

206 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 11:56 pm
#141 The Woosh on 03.10.21 at 7:46 pm
I’m up 43% YTD
————-

Wow, that’s pretty good in 2 months. Almost unbelievably good.

——————-
Up what?
Alcohol consumption?
Can’t blame you.
Stressful times.

#231 The West on 03.11.21 at 10:35 am

#108 Guy in Calgary

Just get rid of CMHC for new mortgages. Let the banks take 100% of the risk and watch the lending tighten up all on its own.

——————————————-

Exactly!

#232 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.21 at 10:38 am

#228 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 9:49 am
@#214 wrk.dvr
“2XCPP+2XOAS+1DBP=$61,600”

++++

It could be worse.
I paid more Fed/Prov taxes than your combined earnings last year……
——————-
Thank you for your service to the country.
The recognition ribbon is in the mail.

#233 Guelph Guru on 03.11.21 at 10:38 am

More loans with no risk(CMHC)= more profits for the banks.
This means more dividends for me. I’m not complaining.
Keep it up my fellow Canadians. Get that juicy loan. BoC take your well deserved break. Let the party continue.
Always wonder, if this can go on forever? Don’t understand. Too complicated.
So will enjoy my juicy dividends and will retire early. Will let all the RE owners to finance my retirement.

#234 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 10:39 am

@#226 Toronto Shill
“Is that the best knock ya got against Toronto?”
++++

Crackhead Mayor, The Make Beliefs, The 401 in rush hour, the cold in the winter, the heat and humidity in the summer, the wafting rotten garbage smell in Summer( even when the power is on).

Yep, “world class”.

#235 The Woosh on 03.11.21 at 10:44 am

#229 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 9:50 am
#213 The Woosh on 03.11.21 at 7:21 am

Even verifiable facts don’t need to be posted when they’re pathetic.

————

I see your 43% YTD portfolio return and raise you one personal levitation. I’m writing this from 100m above the house. Nobody can believe it.

————————————

Good job Houdini. No more magic mushrooms for you.

#236 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 11:06 am

#225 Sara on 03.11.21 at 9:28 am

He should know better that “the science” is never settled. In fact, he said that in a comment. Imagine the heresy when somebody had the audacity to say the Earth was round and not flat – oh the science!

#237 Sheesh on 03.11.21 at 11:08 am

#187 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 10:03 pm
Sorry, was that article to long for you to read? Perhaps it caused some cognitive dissonance which is uncomfortable to be sure. The real peril is thinking that you know more than someone who has dedicated their life to research because you read some stuff on the internet.
At least make an effort to determine the quality of the information that you are reading, and learn to see how that information may be manipulated to tell a different story.
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-ways-science.amp

#238 Sheesh on 03.11.21 at 11:14 am

#215 sonnydaze on 03.11.21 at 7:43 am
thanks for the enlightening article 164 Sheesh !I am always thankful for the educational content provided by Garth and sometimes by the bloggers. With great humility I suggest that the article is an attempt to move the overton window through pandering.
…..
M’kay, I would LOVE to hear your reasoning for that.

#239 leebow on 03.11.21 at 11:16 am

#229 Sail Away
#213 The Woosh

Frankly, both of you should consider hiring somebody with more experience.

#240 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 11:32 am

#239 leebow on 03.11.21 at 11:16 am
#229 Sail Away
#213 The Woosh

Frankly, both of you should consider hiring somebody with more experience.

————–

Nobody cares about your money the way you do. Would you hire a more experienced parent to raise your kids?

#241 Concerned Citizen on 03.11.21 at 11:34 am

#198 T-Rev,

I am not being overly dramatic. Our policymakers have declared open warfare on young people, in action if not words. If someone pushes me to the ground and kicks me repeatedly in the nuts, I’m not going accept it and ask for more. What makes it worse is that they do it with a smile, lying right to your face. “We’re doing it to help the unemployed service worker,” they say. Give me a break. They’re doing it to hyper-inflate boomer home and stock prices. By any objective measure they have created massive bubbles in both in many parts of the respective markets.

This is kicking the can on steroids. Not only have they priced an entire generation out of owning a home in many parts of the country, they’re racking up the debt like there’s no tomorrow. So boomers enjoy the wealth-fare, and young people get stuck with the massive bill down the road.

I am SICK OF IT. Enough is enough. With each passing day the urge to emigrate grows, and I’m sure I’m not the only one. I can’t over-stress how outright hostile government policy is to young people. If that’s how my government feels about it, I am others my age don’t have to grin and bear it.

#242 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 11:34 am

#237 Sheesh on 03.11.21 at 11:08 am

“…how that information may be manipulated to tell a different story.”

So you don’t think all information is presented to tell the story someone wants to tell? As you can tell, I’m skeptical when people say “the science is settled.” Obviously, I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed but when I hear something like that I think there has to be an agenda somebody is trying to push. I guess it’s just my nature. I like to question things. Perhaps if more people in Germany questioned what the Nazis were doing there may not have been the Holocaust??? Who knows…

Anyway, I will read your link, I just haven’t had the time because I keep responding to everything on here! Lol

#243 Dr V on 03.11.21 at 11:35 am

228 fartz – another way to look at it is you paid 15X the tax wrk.dover did. Maybe time to re-examine your
realized income.

I remember my retired FIL complaining about his tax
bill at years end – $1k or so. I told him I pay that much
every month. He told me that was OK because I
worked. But he got the heart surgery.

#244 Wrk.dover on 03.11.21 at 11:52 am

#228 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.21 at 9:49 am
@#214 wrk.dvr
“2XCPP+2XOAS+1DBP=$61,600”

++++

It could be worse.
I paid more Fed/Prov taxes than your combined earnings last year……

??????????????????????????????

I think that 6.3% should be more like 16.3%

In your scenario, why even show up for more?

I stopped selling time 32 years ago, and I still wish I had more of it to do what I do.

#245 IHCTD9 on 03.11.21 at 11:53 am

The lot was more like a beauty queen from a movie scene
I said don’t mind, let’s go see the pool, could this be the one?
Should I bid, on this place, another round?

She cooed this is the one, bid online, no condish, you’ll wear the crown.

She was a Queen with the ReMax team, and she caused a scene
Then every head turned with eyes that dream of home-ownership
Who will win, the bidding war, it’s the final round

My Realtor always told me, be careful of how you bid
And don’t go around offering them ask (Whoo-ooo)
She came and stood right by me
But we were talking over Zoom
This happened much too soon
She showed me the bathroom (OH Oho)

A ReMax agent, is my new lover
She’ just a girl, but I should have known just to run
Now my bank account’s all done.

etc.. Good night Canada

#246 leebow on 03.11.21 at 11:58 am

#240 Sail Away

I saw some of your posts. You have ego issues and narcissistic traits. Clearly I don’t care about you or your money. But you are doing a disservice to this blog by promoting a careless approach to investing.

#247 Sara on 03.11.21 at 12:00 pm

#242 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 11:34 am

“Obviously, I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed ….”

====================

That was probably the most insightful comment you’ve ever made here.

#248 The Woosh on 03.11.21 at 12:09 pm

#240 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 11:32 am
#239 leebow on 03.11.21 at 11:16 am
#229 Sail Away
#213 The Woosh

Frankly, both of you should consider hiring somebody with more experience.

————–

Nobody cares about your money the way you do. Would you hire a more experienced parent to raise your kids?

————————-

Agreed. Why would I hand my money over to someone else to make a fraction of my returns.

#249 Damifino on 03.11.21 at 12:16 pm

#241 Concerned Citizen

T2 is almost single-handedly saving our word from climatic Armageddon, and you’re complaining about poor prospects of home ownership? How very selfish.

#250 Doug in London on 03.11.21 at 12:20 pm

Our only hope to restore even the slightest trace of sanity to housing markets is if the economic recovery creates real inflation fears and the bond markets bump up interest rates more than expected. That would be a big step towards Make Canada Great Again. The fact is that if housing were included in inflation calculations we would have interest rates that would make the 20% mortgages of 1981 look dirt cheap, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

#251 highlander on 03.11.21 at 12:21 pm

just received info that our house will sell for 720,000….thats just crazy & sad really. small bungalow built in 1956 in Kitchener ON

#252 DON on 03.11.21 at 12:21 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/u-s-mortgage-rates-rise-for-fourth-straight-week-hitting-3-05

#253 Penny Henny on 03.11.21 at 12:39 pm

#88 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 4:59 pm
Stone,

My totally and completely unbalanced and undiversified three January stock buys are up an average of 12.54% YTD, and the VUS.TO purchased last Friday is up 3.60%.

Mmmm… lick lips. How’s your stuff?
///////////////

I just cracked 14% YTD yesterday on my All Canadian High Dividend payers. This is for the whole portfolio.

#254 Penny Henny on 03.11.21 at 12:43 pm

oh, and whether the markets move up or down from here there will be another 4% dividends coming by years end

#255 Looking Up on 03.11.21 at 12:49 pm

#246 leebow on 03.11.21 at 11:58 am
#240 Sail Away

I saw some of your posts. You have ego issues and narcissistic traits. Clearly I don’t care about you or your money. But you are doing a disservice to this blog by promoting a careless approach to investing.

———–

I wouldn’t take him seriously, I think he’s just trolling. Look at him as the court jester of the board.

For example:

He boasted a while back:

“Dawwwwling I just paid an exorbitant amount in taxes for an exquisite painting I just bought”

Oh yeah what was it?

“Dawwling it was a Wyland Hawaiian tourist whale painting.”

I laughed all afternoon. I’m quite sure he’s just screwing around.

#256 IHCTD9 on 03.11.21 at 1:02 pm

#241 Concerned Citizen on 03.11.21 at 11:34 am

I am SICK OF IT. Enough is enough. With each passing day the urge to emigrate grows, and I’m sure I’m not the only one. I can’t over-stress how outright hostile government policy is to young people. If that’s how my government feels about it, I am others my age don’t have to grin and bear it.
___________________

Trudeau likes to beat up asset-less low wage earners too! I agree 100% Trudeau really hasn’t done anything to help anyone other than those who don’t need help (ie. wealthy folks, boomers, Gen-X’ers, homeowners, investors etc…).

But…

“The group of voters born between 1980 and 2000 came out in record numbers in 2015 to support Trudeau”

“If any party wants to attract millennial votes, Abacus Data has found that climate is the issue to focus on”

“If millennials come out and they overwhelmingly vote for one option, that will have a big impact — as I think it did in 2015 for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals…”

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/10/14/election-profile-millennials/

The Mils by and large are sticking it to themselves. The Trudeau Liberals have been such a destructive force against Canadians, that todays youth now have a completely un-fixable situation on their hands. It can’t be fixed. It’s too much. It’s a life-time deal. Yet the Mils have supported it the entire way.

They voted the worst possible guy into power in 2015, then when the fully expected Billions of dollars worth of debt and 50% higher RE prices appeared, they voted him right back in there again.

Today, ONE TRILLION dollars worth of debt now towers over the Canadian landscape, right beside housing prices so high, they’re being called “the biggest housing bubble in history” by some economists. Several voices are calling for macroprudential regulations to shore up the Canadian financial system.

There are buzzers and red warning lights going off all over the place. Surely the Mils can’t take anymore, right?

Nope, it’s looking more like another majority actually…

If you are young, emigration probably isn’t a bad idea at this point. It’s not like anyone is going to be able to fix the colossal mess Trudeau has created in your (or your kids’) lifetime. No one alive today will live to see the damage repaired.

#257 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 1:26 pm

#247 Sara on 03.11.21 at 12:00 pm

For someone relatively new to posting comments on here that’s pretty egotistical.

#258 leebow on 03.11.21 at 1:36 pm

#255 Looking Up

Ok, you are probably right. I didn’t think of that. And I didn’t mean to offend him. It’s just ego doesn’t go well with investing. Ego leads to mistakes.

#259 John Doe on 03.11.21 at 1:44 pm

How about this…

The demise of the Canadian dollar, and actually, all democratic currencies, is reflected in our ever inflating housing markets.

With democratic government around the world insisting on printing money while holding rates low, they have forced the devaluation of their currencies via other means. But.. governments have effectively turned off all free market means of doing this. So… the housing markets become a reflection of inflation and the actual devaluation of each countries currency.

Face it, our Canadian dollars are buying less and less “house”. Ipso facto devaluation of the Canadian dollar is in full swing.

Who are the players, and what money is being using to fund all these transactions? Don’t ask. Realtors, banks and the CRA are happy to do business with them.

The “rules” were there just to make you feel good. In reality, there are no rules. Proof? Well, when was the last time anyone was “convicted” with breaking these so called rules?

Just sit back and enjoy the devaluation taking place. Buy a house. Sell a house. Get in the gamer. Everyone wins!

#260 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 2:00 pm

#258 leebow on 03.11.21 at 1:36 pm
#255 Looking Up

Ok, you are probably right. I didn’t think of that. And I didn’t mean to offend him. It’s just ego doesn’t go well with investing. Ego leads to mistakes.

———–

No offense taken and no ego in my investing, although cheerful boasting at times.

I was mostly tweaking Stone due to unsubstantiated salacious allegations he made last week.

#261 leebow on 03.11.21 at 2:02 pm

Garth, you’ve been investing for so long that you probably did some of the best mistakes out there.

Can you write about the mistakes you made (besides this blog)?

#262 Sara on 03.11.21 at 2:45 pm

#257 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 1:26 pm
#247 Sara on 03.11.21 at 12:00 pm

For someone relatively new to posting comments on here that’s pretty egotistical.
======

I’m new here? Thanks for letting me know.

#263 Sail Away on 03.11.21 at 3:36 pm

#262 Sara on 03.11.21 at 2:45 pm
#257 Tron Light on 03.11.21 at 1:26 pm
#247 Sara on 03.11.21 at 12:00 pm

For someone relatively new to posting comments on here that’s pretty egotistical.

———-

I’m new here? Thanks for letting me know.

———-

Well, in your current guise. You could, of course, revert to any one of your many previous pseudonyms. Or would you like me to call you by your real name, since that seems to be a thing with you? Don’t ignore your US taxes by the way.

#264 Average Man on 03.11.21 at 6:30 pm

re

Concerned Citizen, I know even Garth knows the jig is up. The stock market and real estate markets will not be even in existence in say 10 years because we will all not have the right to own or even be able to buy, sell, transfer property. We are going communist by 2030-2031.

—-

Don’t threaten me with a good time.

#265 Average Man on 03.11.21 at 6:35 pm

#222 Toronto RE on 03.11.21 at 8:49 am
Toronto real estate prices are on FIRE! I can’t believe how quick things are selling, and for how much. Unbelievable.

Why shouldn’t it be that one of the safest, cleanest, most stable cities in the world has among the highest RE prices in the world? Seems par for the course to me.

——

Sounds like we need to make things less stable. Millennials and Gen Z. Stop being soft. Get out in the streets and get VIOLENT. They call us snowflakes? Snowflakes just shut down the power grid in Texas.