The void

Tomorrow the Bank of Canada will do its thing. Expect no rate hike. Not yet. The economy’s still fragile. The vax is just starting to flow. There’ll be an election in a few months. So for a while yet banks will offer 2% fivers

But, says the boss of the nation’s biggest, the CB will inevitably raise its benchmark rate, up to a year or two sooner than expected. Meanwhile rising bond yields have already shoved home loan costs higher by about a fifth of a point and another 10 basis point jump is expected this week. That has CIBC economist Benny Tal warning a “spike” in rates could shock real estate and tip the country back into recession. The trip higher, he hopes, needs to be a smooth one so the housing market can chill in an orderly fashion.

So let’s discuss reality, not hopium.

The OECD says the world economy will charge ahead by about 5.5% starting in the second half of this year (like 90 days from now). The provinces are insisting herd immunity could be here by late summer. Biden promises all Americans who want a shot will have one by the end of May. The American economy is expected to swell by 6.5% in 2021. Bond yields in Canada have tripled since being squished by the bug, because investors know what’s coming. In fact it’s here – inflation. That comes on the heels of historic government spending. As the pandemic ends and people get back to work, a lot will change.

So here’s the dilemma.  The CB faces pressure to jump rates and halt its bond-buying binge, but can’t. Not yet. But if it delays a long time, allowing the economy to run hot for a year, the increases then will be substantial. Like Benny says, a shock.

However, we have a runaway housing market. This time (unlike in 2017) it’s everywhere. Small towns, rural municipalities, hick cities, cottage country, far-flung city-suburbs – prices have inflated because of WFH, aggressive nesting, urban flight and cheap money. The average property price in Mississauga is closing in on $1 million. All 32 major markets in the country are on fire. That makes it way more serious than the GTA-YVR bloat we went through four years ago, when governments reacted with alacrity and alarm.

Conclusion?

The pressure is growing for macroprudential solutions. In other words, government intervention. Like in New Zealand where investors have to put 40% down if they buy an investment property. Even the Re/Max talking-head guy, Chris Alexander, now calls the Toronto situation “an affordability crisis.” Realtors are starting to cringe at current events. “I had an agent with a multiple bid situation the other night who called me saying one was for $200,000 above the ask,” a broker told me. “That’s a real concern since it’s unlikely the appraisal will come in that high. The seller’s all excited, but this is nuts.”

And that was in Halifax, where $200,000 used to buy a nice little pad – not be just the extra sauce on an offer. Like I said, this is everywhere. It’s national. It’s bad social policy. It’s enriching flippers and crushing the newbies. Household debt is inflating right along with property valuations. The transfer of wealth from buyers (mostly young) to sellers (mostly old) is epic. The wealth divide grows daily.

Can it last?

Not a chance. Tal is worried. Scotiabank’s Derek Holt is lobbying for intervention. Re/Max is hitting the alarm. National Bank has evidence stupid house prices are pushing debt limits against the wall – a record number of riskier, high-ratio buyers now have loans equal to 450% or more of their incomes. Outgoing CMHC boss Evan Siddall has warned repeatedly that Canadians are borrowing their way into a crisis. Real estate has been allowed to swell to 17% of the entire economy, making it an engine of growth, but one that now threatens to fly off the tracks and wipe out an entire herd of indebted bovines. Guts everywhere.

Yesterday this blog was savaged for saying, historically, four-fifths of price inflation sticks when a bubble market fizzles. It’s true. Unless there’s intervention. If mortgage insurance rules change, down payments are increased, loan rates allowed to rise, debt ratios tightened, flippers targeted or speculators taxed then sentiment can change fast. So far, crickets.

Will the central bank boss send up a flare when he reports on Wednesday? Will our non-financial finance minister Chrystia address the affordability crisis and debt romp in her first budget (whenever that lands)? And what happened to politicians in Ontario or BC who rushed in to cool smouldering house lust the last time real estate went ape?

We’re witnessing the gamification of homes. Oh, and a void of leadership. At least one of those should be a surprise.

196 comments ↓

#1 -=withwings=- on 03.09.21 at 2:17 pm

It means a place that could have been yours for about $400,000 last winter now trades for $613,000.

But why were homes in Owen freakin Sound worth 400 large to begin with? Don’t blame the last 6 months on something that started with 40/0 and has been going in only one direction since

#2 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 2:20 pm

Message received. Overweight US. Done, thanks.

#3 TurnerNation on 03.09.21 at 2:24 pm

GME: everything has its reason when you see something in the ‘news’. If you have not noticed, since March 2020 everything is being used for More debt, more taxation, more control (tracking bracelets, QA codes, movement restrictions).
We must Stop The Spread of Capitalism.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-frenzy-emboldens-supporters-of-stock-trading-tax-11615132800?page=1
GameStop Frenzy Emboldens Supporters of Stock-Trading Tax
Proponents say tax could help fund infrastructure programs, while Wall Street groups contend it would hurt investors

……
We’re one year into this, this power won’t be given up easily. Divided we stand; United we fall. Kanada’s new motto.
What would it take for our rulers to tell us we are free? What goalpost must be met? Hint there isn’t one.
Our global rulers must roaring with laughter! Not only have they saddled the tax slaves with the unimaginable debt (The Feds can skip the Budget too – unlimited power you see) but also that all fun & recreation has been banned. We have no choice but to work work work. Excellent. Passive captive debt slaves.

— Large underground party broken up by police in southeast Edmonton. edmonton.ctvnews.ca

–Example: how to kill the economy 101

Israel: More than 50% of population vaccinated and Coronavirus czar says 4th lockdown is ‘absolutely possible’ (timesofisrael.com)

— Meanwhile in Texas…a short video of normal life. Not allowed the cold Kanadian Gulag:

https://old.reddit.com/r/NoNewNormal/comments/m0v3pe/this_is_not_rtexas_this_is_real_life/

#4 Linda on 03.09.21 at 2:34 pm

Housing has indeed become less affordable.

About that risky loan herd who have somehow managed to graze to the tune of 450% or more of their incomes I have to ask, how the heck did that happen? Last time we looked at upping loan limits on a HELOC – a secured one at that – the lending institution scrutinized our finances to the max. This despite ample assets, an excellent credit history & very low credit risk to them. So am bewildered that people can apparently receive endless easy credit despite being ‘high risk’.

#5 dave on 03.09.21 at 2:34 pm

Oil prices are in mid $60 range – will Oil inflation tip interest rates?

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 2:40 pm

@#5 dave
“will Oil inflation tip interest rates?”

++++

Nah.
Our plummeting Canuck buck will force the “Budgets Balance Themselves” Mandarins in Ottawa to finally do something overdue and unpopular….. raise rates.

#7 SoggyShorts on 03.09.21 at 2:41 pm

40% down on investment properties in NZ, eh?
One thing I found interesting at the start of the pandemic while in Vietnam was how there wasn’t much panic even in the touristy town where I was once tourism was closed.
The reason? No real debt. It turns out that when buying a home most people save up ~60% and borrow/are gifted 30-40% from parents with maybe 10% being financed. The look on my landlord’s face when I told him about 95% financing…

#8 FordFactor on 03.09.21 at 2:43 pm

There’s a big difference in the politicians that were in charge at Queen’s Park in 2017 (Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals) vs. today (Doug Ford’s conservatives).

Do you think Doug Ford would introduce measures to cool the housing market?

#9 SCD on 03.09.21 at 2:44 pm

Gradually raise rates. Best option. Better than market interventions and manipulations.

#10 Prince Polo on 03.09.21 at 2:45 pm

The very same people cheering for this epic madness will be the very first ones decrying the crash with crocodile tears: “how could the government let this over-leverage happen to me?!?!

So which is it? You deserve big boy pants or a pacifier? No way you can have both!

#11 Hans on 03.09.21 at 2:48 pm

Increasing the dp requirements for investors isn’t a bad thing. It’s okay to take some of the froth out of the market, especially with so many real estate gurus espousing the merits of real estate investing. The problem for governments is that while trying to slow investors, you also start to choke off the tax hose, one of the few that still pays for government largesse imo. Can’t have it both ways…want affordability yet want the tax spigots still collecting at full strength.

#12 Billy Buoy on 03.09.21 at 2:49 pm

So Crazy Spring/Summer then reality?

Reality for 50% of the population isn’t going to be pretty.

Long needs / Short Wants.

#13 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 2:49 pm

Trudeau offers excuses:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-johnson-vaccine-production-1.5942680

I suppose that’s better than just cancelling the vax like they did with the budget.

There’s always a silver lining when you’re growing the economy from the heart out.

Maybe next year when we get a budget, maybe we will get the vax too?

Hopefully.

#14 Peter McLean on 03.09.21 at 2:50 pm

I’m going to sell my house, and put all the profits from it into Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and weed stocks. I’m pretty sure this is an ingenious plan, because stocks always go up, especially Bitcoin.

#15 some guy on 03.09.21 at 2:50 pm

My bet is that nothing meaningful gets done this year.

Doug Ford is buddies with real-estate developers in Ontario and Trudeau won’t risk losing votes if he’s pushing for an election this year.

Voters have to pressure politicians to act but that won’t happen either.

#16 Leftover on 03.09.21 at 2:52 pm

It used to be that GTA/YVR housing bubbles couldn’t be addressed by macro policy because it would hobble the rest of the country. So much for that.

One of Garth’s best points today is the massive transfer of wealth (and risk) between oldsters and younger buyers. That’s breeding genuine inter-generational angst, as well it should. Maybe some millennial influencer will tweet about how capital gains on primary residences is woke and it goes viral.

That might convince the Liberals that it’s a good idea. God knows rational economic arguments have failed so far.

Finally, we took some profits last month from our tech equities. No way does that cash go into bonds until prices drop. A lot.

#17 Love_The_Cottage on 03.09.21 at 2:57 pm

CIBC economist Benny Tal warning a “spike” in rates could shock real estate and tip the country back into recession.
_________
So when Benny says this you’re in agreement. When some of the blog dogs say rates can’t go up (much) …

#18 Tarth Gurner on 03.09.21 at 3:01 pm

Garth, you have talked about how Vancouver and Toronto rent prices have dropped amidst the pandemic, but where I am in Kelowna the rent prices are increasing with the insane housing market. As of February, one bedrooms were up 10% on the year already. This rent hike seems to also be the case in places where we saw similar growth in real estate that didn’t happen in the past such as Halifax and Windsor. I suppose this is the WFH exodus from big cities to less populated ones. I am being forced move out of my current living situation soon and it seems like either renting or buying in one of these markets is a no win situation right now.

#19 John on 03.09.21 at 3:06 pm

Pack’er up kids and move to Texas/Florida/Arizona before it’s too late there too. Don’t waste your life paying a mortgage to the banks!

With the current house prices, there should be civil unrest across Canada but we’re too docile as a result of listening to the MSM.

#20 N on 03.09.21 at 3:09 pm

“We’re witnessing the gamification of homes. Oh, and a void of leadership. At least one of those should be a surprise.”

Neither are surprises – just a product of the times we live in.
Actually it’s not the gamification of homes, but the gamification of houses. Homes became Houses a long time ago.

#21 Jerry on 03.09.21 at 3:10 pm

Garth yesterday you posted:

“History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so (without intervention)…”

Obviously plenty of housing bubbles have had price corrections that were double, triple or quadruple that 15%, or even more.

It appears you are claiming that in each case where corrections were significantly more than 15% it was as a result of government intervention.

That would be like saying that several times in history governments have intentionally and knowingly brought about the serious and long-lasting economic consequences (that inevitably come with housing crashes) as a result of intervening in their housing market to bring prices down.

But that would be nuts. It’s far more likely the case that these deep price crashes happened as a result of bubbles bursting on their own and under the weight of their own excesses – without government intervention.

Also is there a link for your 15% claim that isn’t tied to the usual suspects who have a vested interest in keeping house prices high (realtors, bankers, etc.)?

#22 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 3:13 pm

“Real estate has been allowed to swell to 17% of the entire economy, making it an engine of growth, …”
_____________

There’s Trudeau growing the economy from the heart out again. You see? Diverting cash from needy Canadians to already wealthy Canadians is working like a charm – look at all that growth!

After the economy is fully grown up, then it will be time to watch the budget balance itself. The Liberals have been working hard on this project since 2015, and are nearing a climactic finish. Some inside sources say that an actual budget may make a guest appearance. They also guarantee no one would ever guess how this one ends.

#23 Millennial 1%er on 03.09.21 at 3:16 pm

Expensive homes with shit jobs to boot. Every Canadian who lives in Canada is looking to start working for an american company remotely. Every Canadian without roots has already dipped to the states.

RIP young people

#24 Soviet Capitalist on 03.09.21 at 3:21 pm

Hearing more and more companies telling their employees that full-time office work is over permanently. To the least it will be partial WFH. Moving to Owen Sound seems to actually make sense. At least the traffic is not as bad.

#25 an investor on 03.09.21 at 3:23 pm

Biden’s dogs have been removed from the White House after attacking the Secret Service … lol

https://nationalfile.com/bidens-dogs-banned-from-white-house-after-aggressive-behavior-biting-incident/

#26 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:26 pm

Thanks for the post Garth. Having purchased RE last year and chronically being the buyer of bags in many things, I will not be surprised for this game to get tightened. Insofar as I can continue to afford to live here, I’ll look forward to a correction.

Clobbering the market with a 40% down requirement is too late and would bring prices down much too sharply here. IMO. I’d much rather see policy directed at harshly penalizing ownership of second homes unless running rentals is a licensed business. Flipping, out. Air BnB, out. Stronger cap gains inclusion for short-term ownership. Rates would do the rest.

#27 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 3:28 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 03.09.21 at 2:24 pm

https://old.reddit.com/r/NoNewNormal/comments/m0v3pe/this_is_not_rtexas_this_is_real_life/

———–

Yep, Texas killing it. When a problem arises, just fix it. Great leadership.

Energy resolved, Covid resolved… it’s party time!

All that’s missing is some schticky art on the walls to flaunt their wealth and culture.

#28 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:29 pm

#2 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 2:20 pm

Message received. Overweight US. Done, thanks.

Quoting my fave NPR podcast (one of) Marketplace “The stock market is not the economy, yo”. Strategic, globally exposed, maple unencumbered with RE implosion will do well.

#29 Dolce Vita on 03.09.21 at 3:31 pm

Leave RE alone.

It’s all this Gov intervention that has gotten Canada into the mess it’s in. Let rates rise or drop, stop meddling with “targeted” short term fixes to cool the RE Market (empty home tax etc.) and if indeed the RE market is overheated, prices will re-adjust to a level determined by buyers and sellers.

If the young cannot afford homes well they will not buy. They are the underpinning of the RE Pyramid. Those moving up from there will have to drop their prices to attract young or new buyers. Those mid RE Pyramid will not be able to sell either (move up) and they will drop prices accordingly.

The RE Market will then correct on its own. Speculators will not make as much money than they anticipated, nor as quickly, and will not be so “speculative” as prices begin to drop and it takes longer to sell.

And like #2 Sail Away, more US.

Another good recovery day today in Mr. US Markets, heck, even Europe is up.

————————-

Canada Variant World

Reporting because like Mr. Market, the Variants took a big jump in the past few days (up 202% cumulative cases from Feb 21, 15 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/ssHLgVs.png

Not exponential but the line is becoming steeper for sure.

Still, no news of hospital or ICU beds filling up. A GOOD thing.

[I have to admit today’s numbers made me worry a bit for Canada, i.e., variants may outpace vaxing, delay Cdn economic recovery with more/extended lockdowns…but not for now]

#30 Kona on 03.09.21 at 3:34 pm

Anyone who has to buy anything in this country knows that higher inflation is here. I don’t know what basket of goods Stats Canada is using to calculate an inflation rate of 1%, as it sure ain’t the basket of goods that I have to buy every month.

#31 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:36 pm

1 -=withwings=- on 03.09.21 at 2:17 pm

It means a place that could have been yours for about $400,000 last winter now trades for $613,000.

But why were homes in Owen freakin Sound worth 400 large to begin with? Don’t blame the last 6 months on something that started with 40/0 and has been going in only one direction since

Yep.

CC: IHTCD9

#32 SimplyPut7 on 03.09.21 at 3:36 pm

I’m surprised realtors and banks are worried, I thought this is what they wanted. I say leave it alone and let people realize this can’t continue on their own.

Also, what happened to all of the condos being built? I don’t hear much about them anymore but there’s no rush to go back to work in large cities, where rents keeps going down.

Are we just going to pretend new condo investors do not have a problem either?

#33 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 3:40 pm

#22 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 3:13 pm

After the economy is fully grown up, then it will be time to watch the budget balance itself. The Liberals have been working hard on this project since 2015, and are nearing a climactic finish. Some inside sources say that an actual budget may make a guest appearance. They also guarantee no one would ever guess how this one ends.

————

Ooh, let me try:

A border wall will be built in 2024 to keep desperate Canadians out of the land of milk and honey. Human traffickers will spirit pompom toque wearing illegals across in remote areas on toboggans. Border patrol will identify Canadians by stepping on detainees’ toes, then waiting to see if the detainee apologizes. Begging, pleading, offering buckets of crude oil will be unsuccessful. Flotillas of rickety boats filled with immigrants will be launched to Venezuela.

#34 Shortymac on 03.09.21 at 3:48 pm

I really hope the deflation comes soon, right now, according to realtor.ca, there’s virtually no houses* under 600k south of Newmarket. This is nuts!

*does not include condos and townhouses

#35 DON on 03.09.21 at 3:56 pm

182 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:24 pm
#173 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

————

You mean a totally different situation than all the other countries who are vaccinating quickly and efficiently?

Should probably ask the US how to do it.

********************

The US is a shinning example of how to deal with COVID? This only works if you have a short memory.

@crowded…not many systems can handle an initial load at that scale…you can add the servers and load balancers and still be over loaded. The average users on redial. They could have thrown information privacy to the dogs and just used ticket master for bookings. Some things take due dilgence and that usually means time. The yearly vaccine is about to get mote attention as demand will remain high for a couple of years.

#36 Mattl on 03.09.21 at 3:59 pm

I love that all the Bank heads are so worried about housing. As if they couldn’t change their underwriting rules to decline high leverage mortgages. At the end of the day the banks are a huge part of the problem – they are the ones writing these high risk loans. Maybe, you know, lead by example and tighten up your lending standards?

I realize that would drive loan seekers to other FI’s but they do have some agency in all of this.

#37 drydock on 03.09.21 at 4:04 pm

Fifteen days to flatten the curve:
17 March, 2020
358
days ago.

#38 S.Bby on 03.09.21 at 4:05 pm

Everything is all screwed up now. What a mess.

#39 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 4:06 pm

#28 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:29 pm
#2 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 2:20 pm

Message received. Overweight US. Done, thanks.

———–

Quoting my fave NPR podcast (one of) Marketplace “The stock market is not the economy, yo”. Strategic, globally exposed, maple unencumbered with RE implosion will do well.

———–

Perhaps. But you know what is the economy?

A fully activated US while Canada languishes with all liquidity firmly attached to anchors, that are, as expected, underwater.

In natural system hydraulics, when a stream splits into two channels, the channel with even a very minutely larger flow quickly becomes the new channel. Will Canada become a mosquito breeding oxbow? My magic 8-ball says ‘Cannot Predict Now’.

#40 VGRO and chill on 03.09.21 at 4:14 pm

Garth,

Is our government obliged to ever release a budget? Can they postpone this forever? Seems like it would be bad politics to advertise our dismal financial situation.

#41 Phylis on 03.09.21 at 4:14 pm

If only Stanley could have behaved. His moment to shine would be today. Inflation he cried, had been his song. It’s to late, his comments are gone.

#42 Nah ... on 03.09.21 at 4:14 pm

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 2:40 pm

@#5 dave
“will Oil inflation tip interest rates?”

++++

Nah.
Our plummeting Canuck buck will force the “Budgets Balance Themselves” Mandarins in Ottawa to finally do something overdue and unpopular….. raise rates.
———————————–
mortgages will balance themselves too …

#43 Don Guillermo on 03.09.21 at 4:27 pm

Trudeau’s High Marks in Fiscal Ranking Increase Election Odds https://flip.it/4ndUy2 from Flipboard.

Hahaha, Canadians are entertaining if nothing else.

#44 Boombust on 03.09.21 at 4:27 pm

#21 Jerry…well said, all housing bubbles pop and the bigger they are, the bigger the bust.

#45 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 4:31 pm

“Will our non-financial finance minister Chrystia address the affordability crisis and debt romp in her first budget (whenever that lands)?”
____

Nope. We’re talking about the autoerotic Trudeau Liberals here. They’re here to pour champagne, adjust their wigs, toast their supporters, enjoy all the luxury the taxpayer can afford, and apparently – that’s about it.

With this flea scratching troop of Liberal monkeys, consider us lucky if we ever get a budget at all. Just forget about helping Canadians and dealing with problems…

…that’s for *after* the election.

#46 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.09.21 at 4:31 pm

So the 40% thingie might work in Australia for a bit until they import a Made in BC solution(likely other places ) I’ve overheard about: disclosure, it is hearsay and theoretical.
Here it goes: A nice blue collar family or newcomer to Canada sells a lot of land in their home country for large amounts of money, all with legal papers of course.
They use that money as down-payment and buy a house or open a house development corporation ,builds a house for personal use then sell 1 year after completion.
At some point House gets sold, profits get repatried to more tax friendly legislation .
Rinse ,repeat.
This is all a distraction from the fact that our governments simply won’t build rental housing,not sure why,that would be the easiest infrastructure spending bill ever, build new entire eco-friendly communities for renters.

#47 Guelph Guru on 03.09.21 at 4:33 pm

So far RE has been a solid investment in the last 2 decades. A lot of factors have led to a massive allocation of capital in real estate. All my friends only keep on talking about how good RE investment is. It’s safe. It’s reliable. No one talks about starting a new enterprise to invent something. Too risky.
As you say Garth, there may be a 15% correction or more if Govt intervenes. Ok. Sure. But the real cost is the time we have lost fretting over RE while others advance their scientific, manufacturing and production skills.
It’s a shame we have to keep on asking other countries for vaccine. We had the same time. Same technology. But did we make the vaccine?
My 2 cents.

#48 Faron on 03.09.21 at 4:38 pm

#39 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 4:06 pm

#28 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:29 pm
#2 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 2:20 pm

Pretty good metaphor, And I’ll extend it with the element of groundwater including hyporheic flows that keep things wet enough for the mosquitos to survive.

I certainly don’t dispute that RE in Canada is an unholy, nonproductive mess occupying way way way too much economic bandwidth here (TIL it’s all Trudeau’s fault).

Regardless, the mainstem will need resources to flow properly, and Canadian entities in a position to provide them will do well. Maybe that’s the cold, sweet groundwater that you can feel against your feet when you wade into the Koksilah at Cowichan Crossing on a hot summer’s day.

#49 The Woosh on 03.09.21 at 4:44 pm

#4 Linda on 03.09.21 at 2:34 pm
Housing has indeed become less affordable.

About that risky loan herd who have somehow managed to graze to the tune of 450% or more of their incomes I have to ask, how the heck did that happen? Last time we looked at upping loan limits on a HELOC – a secured one at that – the lending institution scrutinized our finances to the max. This despite ample assets, an excellent credit history & very low credit risk to them. So am bewildered that people can apparently receive endless easy credit despite being ‘high risk’.

———————————

See…you took the bait. The banks have not changed their lending criteria. Same as it’s always been. 450% makes a nice sound bite but none of the Big 5 would ever dream of doing something like that.

#50 BlogDog123 on 03.09.21 at 4:53 pm

Fix affordability in Toronto:

Remove the anti-nimby barriers for detached houses and allowing basement suites. Half price building permits for these renovations. Less red tape. More places for people to live.

#51 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 4:54 pm

4 Linda – lots of private money out there if you don’t fit the mold of a big 5 bank or local CU. But here are some
flags that could pop up:

– why do/might you need the money?
– what total credit is available to you?
– how long is remainder of your working life?
– location ie how resilient is the RE market in the area?

Years ago, when applying to re-mortgage, the second item lowered my credit score so that my wife was the better ‘risk’ even though I was guaranteeing the mortgage!

I am transitioning to retirement, and considering a HELOC for any large expense that may come up where I don’t want to liquidate assets or incur extra income.

Wish me luck.

#52 Pinocchio on 03.09.21 at 5:00 pm

Here in Canada we must be smoking to much cannabis. Sweedish CB was the only bank to move up. From negative 0.25% to ZERO. EU went from from +0.050% to ZERO. Yes, in 0.050 % increments. Tiff are you waking up yet.

#53 johnny on 03.09.21 at 5:05 pm

Well it seems we have been listening to Garth tellins us RE is overvalued in Canada for 10 years..yet prices still keep going up. At some point he will be right and I have to admit that this year looks about as close to a possible climax as one could expect..the euphoria of the pandemic being over..record low mortgage rates, the neverending belief that RE only goes up. But after watching the RE market go up pretty well nonstop for 20 years its hard to take the other side..I hope Garth is right this time..

#54 Soviet Capitalist on 03.09.21 at 5:07 pm

Inflation is straightforward to calculate – it’s the increase in currency supply. That is why the authorities do not use this. Instead, CPI is used. It has convoluted formula that is difficult to grasp and easy to manipulate.

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 5:09 pm

#182 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:24 pm
#173 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

————

You mean a totally different situation than all the other countries who are vaccinating quickly and efficiently?

Should probably ask the US how to do it.
——————-
First I’d probably asked the US, how come the “richest” country in the world was so ill prepared for the pandemic.
First in infections, deaths, hospitalizations etc.
And then they needed help from a small German biotech company  (biontech). 
And now they are burning masks.
Pretty pathetic.

#56 N on 03.09.21 at 5:10 pm

For those that need to jump into the gamified housing market – here’s your chance to get a bargain….

More moolah coming….. Rates will decline more, japanification possible…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-12-20/federal-reserve-places-70-per-security-limit-on-treasury-debt-holdings

#57 Don Guillermo on 03.09.21 at 5:10 pm

#43 Don Guillermo on 03.09.21 at 4:27 pm
Trudeau’s High Marks in Fiscal Ranking Increase Election Odds https://flip.it/4ndUy2 from Flipboard.

Hahaha, Canadians are entertaining if nothing else.
***************************************
Looking mid way down at the chart we can thank our women for ensuring we get many more years of social justice. It’s quite telling on the chart as the men’s bar is colored pink and the women’s is blue. 2015 didn’t come soon enough.

I meant to write the rest of this on the previous post but I was distracted at the pool.

#58 Squire on 03.09.21 at 5:12 pm

Here’s basically what Garth is referring to with minor changes to interest rates…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sudden-five-year-mortgage-rate-spike-could-be-recessionary-tal-1.1574087
… small changes will have bigger impacts than they would have 10 yrs ago. A lot of people that ran to the suburbs swelling their debts and adding driving costs to commutes will feel it soon enough.

#59 Brian Ripley on 03.09.21 at 5:13 pm

I have my chart of detached house price momentum (Y/Y) for Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and the TSX Real Estate (cash buyer) index published:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html

Toronto price momentum came close in January but did not break out in February above the 2017 high when prices previously peaked.

But the TSX RE Index has spent the last year below the flat line and for the last 4 months is pointing towards deeper negative prints.

Somebody knows something, and I bet it’s the “cash buyers” who are trimming their bets in anticipation.

#60 yorkville renter on 03.09.21 at 5:16 pm

#4 he lending institution scrutinized our finances to the max. This despite ample assets, an excellent credit history & very low credit risk to them. So am bewildered that people can apparently receive endless easy credit despite being ‘high risk’.

I’m with you on that!

My wife and I are in the top 3% – 5% in income, have no debt and a sizeable (I suppose) investment portfolio and we can’t get approved for a reasonably sized loan.

How’s this possible?!?!

#61 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 5:17 pm

#48 Faron on 03.09.21 at 4:38 pm
#39 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 4:06 pm

Regardless, the mainstem will need resources to flow properly, and Canadian entities in a position to provide them will do well. Maybe that’s the cold, sweet groundwater that you can feel against your feet when you wade into the Koksilah at Cowichan Crossing on a hot summer’s day.

———-

You may be right. My Canadian positions include utilities, uranium, commodities, total market, railways and preferreds, so I am slightly optimistic while simultaneously denigratory.

The Koksilah, ha. That is a cold stream, even in midsummer. And rocky.

I spent a lot of time working on the Kinsol Trestle reconstruction years ago… that’s a fine multi multi million dollar pedestrian walkway. Probably as good a use for tax $ as most things they come up with… especially the amount they paid the overpriced engineers.

#62 Faron on 03.09.21 at 5:26 pm

#188 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 2:27 pm

troop of autofellatious champagne-Liberal douchebags.

Hey, at least with all the yoga, we can just about get there. It’s sad to watch autofellatious champagne-Conservative BDs try when inevitably the beer gut gets in the way. Just so much non productive rolling around.

#63 NSNG on 03.09.21 at 5:27 pm

For those who were talking about options yesterday, know this, options are more a study about time as opposed to price and value when it comes to stocks or other securities.

If you keep time as one of your key considerations, you will have a much better options foundation.

That said, if your trading account is worth more than $500K, trading options is just being greedy and greed is always a stupid play. Instead, study the fine art of having contentment.

#64 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.09.21 at 5:27 pm

Lol. I think we’re at the top folks. People are getting ridiculously greedy.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22866425/35-huntley-crescent-kitchener e’re in the death roll now

#65 Vince on 03.09.21 at 5:30 pm

How do people have unlimited credit to buy house? Easy. Fraud. You pay a crooked mortgage broker a certain amount of money and he will falsify your income. There’s no push to stop this because house prices are increasing. Apparently that’s a good thing whether it’s 5% a year or 50% a year.

False statement. – Garth

#66 leebow on 03.09.21 at 5:31 pm

#45 IHCTD9

Is it fair to say that your the things you say are a fair representation of the conservative opinion in Canada? What share of conservative voters support what you say, word for word?

#67 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 5:35 pm

#31 Faron on 03.09.21 at 3:36 pm
1 -=withwings=- on 03.09.21 at 2:17 pm

It means a place that could have been yours for about $400,000 last winter now trades for $613,000.

But why were homes in Owen freakin Sound worth 400 large to begin with? Don’t blame the last 6 months on something that started with 40/0 and has been going in only one direction since

Yep.

CC: IHTCD9

— —-

Wut?

Who’s complaining about 400k houses? With Trudeau’s non-fiscal policies combined with the BoC’s wild flailing to save our non-economy – you’d end up paying a measly 1600.00 monthly for that. That’s peanuts.

But 600k+? Yes, over the line. For that, you can thank Trudeau and his falstaffian self-assured syndicate of yo-yo’s in Ottawa.

#68 Faron on 03.09.21 at 5:35 pm

#63 NSNG on 03.09.21 at 5:27 pm

Good points. And the mapping of options time onto wall clock time is quite distorted which makes the effect all the more confusing.

#69 Penny Henny on 03.09.21 at 5:40 pm

#50 BlogDog123 on 03.09.21 at 4:53 pm
Fix affordability in Toronto:

Remove the anti-nimby barriers for detached houses and allowing basement suites. Half price building permits for these renovations.
///////////////

There is a Huge development fee from the city to add a legal basement suite.
Toronto doesn’t want solutions they just want more money.
And John Tory is so wishy washy that Maytag named an appliance after him.

#70 binky barnes on 03.09.21 at 5:43 pm

Hmmmmm. This housing issue does not bode well does it. Oh well, we can console ourselves in the knowledge that we have Mr. Justin Trudeau ably guiding our nation through these troubled waters. So while things might not be too rosy at the moment I would not worry too much, he will get things right. He always does, after all.

BB

#71 Jem on 03.09.21 at 5:47 pm

May be a cross road between letting there be a recession
or
Letting them eat cake

#72 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 5:48 pm

#66 leebow on 03.09.21 at 5:31 pm
#45 IHCTD9

Is it fair to say that your the things you say are a fair representation of the conservative opinion in Canada? What share of conservative voters support what you say, word for word?
— – –

Word for word?

All of Canada?

Hmm…

I’m going to take a [email protected] guess and go with zero conservatives in Canada share my opinion to the letter.

Don’t worry bro, I’m just one vote.

#73 Re-Cowtown on 03.09.21 at 5:49 pm

#140 45north on 03.09.21 at 1:25 am

Robert Ash I owned a Condo in Florida… top location, great building good management. It dropped from 2006 to 2009 by 50%.

yeah and I figured Canada would drop too but it didn’t.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Canada weathered the 2009 Great Recession in relatively good shape because we had a large, vibrant and properly functioning Natural Resources sector. Simply put, Alberta powered the rest of the country by building oil sands plants (with a great many manufacturing plants in Ontario feasting on the oil sands demand for everything from pipe to electronic controllers when US contracts crapped out) and also by exporting oil. Ditto with our mining sector which fed the Chinese economy’s double digit growth. Canada made $$$ by selling things to other countries. That’s thick dollars, real $$$, not fake money borrowed by one neighbor to pay the the debts of another.

Now that Trudeau has made it clear Biden dictates Canada’s energy and resource policy, Alberta can’t be counted on to carry water for the rest of Canada when the SHTF this time.

Sorry Ontario and Quebec, you’ll have to figure your own way out of the mess this time. We can’t afford to bail you out (again).

#74 45north on 03.09.21 at 5:53 pm

Will the central bank boss send up a flare when he reports on Wednesday? Will our non-financial finance minister Chrystia address the affordability crisis and debt romp in her first budget? And what happened to politicians in Ontario or BC who rushed in to cool smouldering house lust the last time real estate went ape?

everybody wants affordable but nobody wants cheaper.

#75 TheDood on 03.09.21 at 6:01 pm

#47 Guelph Guru on 03.09.21 at 4:33 pm
So far RE has been a solid investment in the last 2 decades. A lot of factors have led to a massive allocation of capital in real estate. All my friends only keep on talking about how good RE investment is. It’s safe. It’s reliable. No one talks about starting a new enterprise to invent something. Too risky.
As you say Garth, there may be a 15% correction or more if Govt intervenes. Ok. Sure. But the real cost is the time we have lost fretting over RE while others advance their scientific, manufacturing and production skills.
It’s a shame we have to keep on asking other countries for vaccine. We had the same time. Same technology. But did we make the vaccine?
My 2 cents.
_________________________________

Great point.

Helping to feed this is our best and brightest leaving for better paying opportunities. My oldest graduated in 2020 after 7 long, tough years with an advanced degree. Multiple offers received from south of the border. The offers received from Canada were so pathetic in comparison……all tossed in the trash where they belonged. There is no incentive whatsoever for an educated person to stay in Canada when pay and opportunities are so much better elsewhere.

#76 VanIsle on 03.09.21 at 6:04 pm

#61 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 5:17 pm
#48 Faron on 03.09.21 at 4:38 pm
#39 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 4:06 pm

Regardless, the mainstem will need resources to flow properly, and Canadian entities in a position to provide them will do well. Maybe that’s the cold, sweet groundwater that you can feel against your feet when you wade into the Koksilah at Cowichan Crossing on a hot summer’s day.

———-

You may be right. My Canadian positions include utilities, uranium, commodities, total market, railways and preferreds, so I am slightly optimistic while simultaneously denigratory.

The Koksilah, ha. That is a cold stream, even in midsummer. And rocky.

I spent a lot of time working on the Kinsol Trestle reconstruction years ago… that’s a fine multi multi million dollar pedestrian walkway. Probably as good a use for tax $ as most things they come up with… especially the amount they paid the overpriced engineers.

——

Thank you for your efforts ref. rebuilding the Kinsol Trestle. Government wanted to spend more money tearing it down, far in excess what it cost the community to rebuild. Sure maybe the engineers got paid, much better than had it been torn down. Love the Kinsol Trestle, fantastic spot for everyone to enjoy.

#77 KNOW IT ALL on 03.09.21 at 6:06 pm

GARTH,

Should I buy a house in the GTA or equivalent amount of shares in GameStop (GME)?

I mean like what’s the difference?

#78 cristian on 03.09.21 at 6:08 pm

What about the wealth transfer from all of us to Amazon, Costco, Walmart, George Weston ltd, all the FANG’s and so on ?
Anybody care to share their opinion ?

#79 Do we have all the facts on 03.09.21 at 6:13 pm

Over the last twelve months the total amount of mortgage debt in Canada increased by $120 billion. Hard to believe that the injection of an additional $120 billion in mortgages and an additional $400 billion injected by the Government of Canada had no impact on inflation.

Increasing money supply by an average of $28,000 per household in one year has resulted in significant inflation and it is time for our governments to admit the truth and begin acting in the best interests of all Canadians.

#80 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 6:13 pm

#62 Faron on 03.09.21 at 5:26 pm
#188 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 2:27 pm

troop of autofellatious champagne-Liberal douchebags.

Hey, at least with all the yoga, we can just about get there. It’s sad to watch autofellatious champagne-Conservative BDs try when inevitably the beer gut gets in the way. Just so much non productive rolling around.
————

I knew you’d like that one :). The isochrony just works. It’s not easy to string invective like that together and still finish on that powerful two syllable punch!

#81 Felix Fanclub on 03.09.21 at 6:17 pm

#25 an investor on 03.09.21 at 3:23 pm
Biden’s dogs have been removed from the White House after attacking the Secret Service … lol

https://nationalfile.com/bidens-dogs-banned-from-white-house-after-aggressive-behavior-biting-incident/

————————-

Hilarious. Wouldn’t happen with cats.

#82 CJD on 03.09.21 at 6:20 pm

This is both insane and unsustainable but here we are, one miserable pandemic year later shaking our collective heads in unison. I keep thinking about all those seniors who perished from COVID in long term care facilities in the past year. My own future retirement scenario seems to be grimmer by the day according to financial news. Those seniors who died were largely living in poverty on inadequate govt pensions with no place to call home but the penal system type accommodation known as “Long term care facilities” amiright? Meager govt pensions and inadequate savings hobbled by unaffordable rent is a frightening glimpse of a future ahead for many of us “average Canadians” (and there are millions of us) with no govt pensions or deep pockets full of wealth to fall back 50 years of paying taxes later. So, what next? Tent cities and camper grounds for the upcoming nomadland sector? Oh Canada indeed.

#83 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 6:22 pm

60 Yorkville – ha! good one!

#84 Bezengy on 03.09.21 at 6:23 pm

Will the central bank boss send up a flare when he reports on Wednesday? Will our non-financial finance minister Chrystia address the affordability crisis and debt romp in her first budget (whenever that lands)
———————————
720 days and counting. Another Trudeau record! Ranks right up there with his record amount of ethic violations.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/goldstein-trudeau-liberals-hold-record-for-failing-to-deliver-a-budget

Oh…and dog lovers, Dallas Seavey is now in 2nd place. Go dogs go!

https://iditarod.com/race/2021/standings/

#85 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.21 at 6:25 pm

One thing Benny Tal has got to understand is that the real estate market doesn’t want to chillout ever. Homeowners want their tax free gigantic profits, land lords want gigantic rental income and realtors want gigantic commissions forever and right now! They don’t care about anything but profits. With more conventional investments that attitude is part of the game but a place to live is a necessity of life and life can not be a monopoly game.

#86 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 6:28 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 5:09 pm
#182 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:24 pm
#173 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

————

You mean a totally different situation than all the other countries who are vaccinating quickly and efficiently?

Should probably ask the US how to do it.
——————-
First I’d probably asked the US, how come the “richest” country in the world was so ill prepared for the pandemic.
First in infections, deaths, hospitalizations etc.
And then they needed help from a small German biotech company (biontech).
And now they are burning masks.
Pretty pathetic.
———-

I think the answer to that Ponzie, is that the USA is (was?) possibly the single most divided country which has not yet displayed open hostilities (ie. killing each other en-masse) on the planet.

Yet, they’re going to finish ahead of us anyway, and they’ll get their social shit straightened out too, with time.

Never bet against Uncle Sam.

#87 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 6:36 pm

Faron/Sail – you want “burnt bridge” upstream from kinsol.

The kinsol is cool though. There are over 30 bents of
which several well-spaced ones were reconstructed,
then those were connected by steel trusses to each
other providing a supporting skeleton for the
remaining structure.

Apparently the Howe truss at the bottom was originally
at the top, but the trestle was destroyed in a flood decades ago and was rebuilt with the Howe at the bottom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinsol_Trestle

#88 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 6:37 pm

#64 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.09.21 at 5:27 pm
Lol. I think we’re at the top folks. People are getting ridiculously greedy.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22866425/35-huntley-crescent-kitchener e’re in the death roll now
——-

Holy Mackerel, that’s an angler for sure. Even at a rock bottom 1.7%, it’s over 8 grand/mo. or an entire 120k + salary gone just on the bare mortgage. That’s a 500k MAX house in my area prior to Covid. It’s damn near 50 years old for crying out loud.

We really need a SHTF event soon.

#89 KaleyCat on 03.09.21 at 6:48 pm

Never bet against America. Even in Covid times.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/09/the-worlds-consumers-are-sitting-on-a-pile-of-cash-will-they-spend-it

#90 David Greene on 03.09.21 at 6:49 pm

“aggressive nesting”.

That was funny, Garth. Thanks for that.

#91 baloney Sandwitch on 03.09.21 at 6:51 pm

I think if the government removed the “tax free” part of the capital gains for principal residences it would solve a lot of problems. Right now, people invest in oversized houses to sock away a lot of wealth, so they pass it on to their progeny “tax free”.

#92 Sun Tzu on 03.09.21 at 6:54 pm

Gath,
Do you have any thoughts on the revelation that Canada’s Head of State is the head of a racist family? How can our PM tolerate this?
Knowing that if Canada went to zero carbon emissions tomorrow it would not change the trejectory of Climate Change, yet the climate crisis if the foremost concern of the government because Canada must set an example for the world. So pure optics, pure Canada. Justin has no choice, cancel the Queen! we must declare a Republic., Am I missing something here?

#93 Smelly Little piglet on 03.09.21 at 6:55 pm

New home builder in Ottawa is now selling new homes to the highest bidder. They want in on the action too.

https://www.cardelhomes.com/ottawa/bid-online/

#94 Stone on 03.09.21 at 6:56 pm

#60 yorkville renter on 03.09.21 at 5:16 pm
#4 he lending institution scrutinized our finances to the max. This despite ample assets, an excellent credit history & very low credit risk to them. So am bewildered that people can apparently receive endless easy credit despite being ‘high risk’.

I’m with you on that!

My wife and I are in the top 3% – 5% in income, have no debt and a sizeable (I suppose) investment portfolio and we can’t get approved for a reasonably sized loan.

How’s this possible?!?!

———

If your portfolio is sizeable enough and consistently allocated (like a balanced and diversified portfolio), the lender can use the income generated from it and add it on top of your employment income. They may want 2-3 years of income tax returns to confirm investment income consistency.

The other option is having the lender use the 4% rule (that withdrawing 4% annually should never deplete the portfolio ever) on the total value of your investment portfolio. Have that 4% added in addition to your employment income.

The banks normally categorize via employment income, pension income, and other income. This should fall under other income.

I’m not advocating that you do it however if you are horny desperate, it is a viable option. If the lender gives you a glassy eyed look, it means they’re too inexperienced and should be contacting their private banking partners on educating them how to do this properly. Don’t take no for an answer from them though. Too many lenders lack imagination. It’s pretty typical to do this with private banking clients, especially those with no income outside of marketable securities.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 6:58 pm

Another 1 hour wait on the phone with my capitalistic, customer oriented etc bank.
The usual: Your call is important to us (my selfesteem just goes up a couple of notches). Please stay on the line.
All our customer representatives are busy helping other customers (oh isn’t this nice).
As time goes on and my selfesteem hits bottom, I keep thinking what they are actually saying
” All our customer representatives are busy taking their dogs for a walk or picking the kids up from school”.

#96 DON on 03.09.21 at 7:04 pm

So just found out that Telus was contracted to handle the BC vaccination booking system. Telus CEO Darren Enwhistle(sp?).

So Telus can’t handle the call volumes…hmmm. Even the official bc opposition party looked like a bunch of dolts, when the CEO apologized.

#97 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 7:06 pm

https://www.aier.org/article/the-cdcs-mask-mandate-study-debunked/

#98 DON on 03.09.21 at 7:10 pm

#86 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 6:28 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 5:09 pm
#182 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:24 pm
#173 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

————

You mean a totally different situation than all the other countries who are vaccinating quickly and efficiently?

Should probably ask the US how to do it.
——————-
First I’d probably asked the US, how come the “richest” country in the world was so ill prepared for the pandemic.
First in infections, deaths, hospitalizations etc.
And then they needed help from a small German biotech company (biontech).
And now they are burning masks.
Pretty pathetic.
———-

I think the answer to that Ponzie, is that the USA is (was?) possibly the single most divided country which has not yet displayed open hostilities (ie. killing each other en-masse) on the planet.

Yet, they’re going to finish ahead of us anyway, and they’ll get their social shit straightened out too, with time.

Never bet against Uncle Sam

**************
A fair number of Team USA aren’t crossing the finish line.

‘Never bet against Rome’ I am sure that was the mainstream thought at one time.

The US has entered a multi-polar world.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 7:19 pm

#86 IHTCD

I think the answer to that Ponzie, is that the USA is (was?) possibly the single most divided country which has not yet displayed open hostilities (ie. killing each other en-masse) on the planet.

Yet, they’re going to finish ahead of us anyway, and they’ll get their social shit straightened out too, with time.

Never bet against Uncle Sam.
—————–
You don’t get an argument from me.
Firstly, who am I to argue with a guy who casually throws Tu quogue into a conversation.
Secondly, I believe nobody knows the future.
But the signs coming out of China does not bode well for the status of the US as the No 1.
Well, we see.

#100 George S on 03.09.21 at 7:30 pm

# 60 Yorkville renter

Loans are different than mortgages. Banks will give you as much money as you want up to 60 or 70% of the value of your real estate minus what you have as a mortgage already. You can even get mortgage backed lines of credit so you can walk into a bank and walk out with a bag of $20 bills in a few minutes no questions asked.
If you want to get an unsecured loan it is going to be a different story. My wife tried to get a credit card from our bank and they wouldn’t give her one because she had no credit rating. The suggestion is to get a small loan and pay it back right away, get a bigger loan, pay it back, etc…. Then you will have a credit rating and they will know whether to trust you or not.

#101 Flop... on 03.09.21 at 7:30 pm

Are Non-Scientists allowed to comment on here anymore…

M46BC

#102 The West on 03.09.21 at 7:37 pm

#78 cristian

“What about the wealth transfer from all of us to Amazon, Costco, Walmart, George Weston ltd, all the FANG’s and so on ?
Anybody care to share their opinion ?”

———————————————-
Turner Nation posted this a couple of days ago. Well worth the read to figure out what has happened and why the consumer has been “streamlined” into the big oceans only.

We’ve been conquered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping.html

#103 Jack on 03.09.21 at 7:47 pm

Garth, we need likes and dislikes in the comment section, for each comment. To see at least what the herd here is thinking.

#104 DON on 03.09.21 at 7:49 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-about-15000-covid-19-vaccination-appointments-booked-in-bc-on-first/

“Horgan said the province was not prepared for 1.7 million calls within the first three hours of the system opening for people aged 90 and up as well as First Nations residents over 65.

Health Minister Adrian Dix has said about 80,000 people are in those categories, but about 26,000 of those have already received a shot in a care home or another setting.”

#105 BCWally on 03.09.21 at 7:52 pm

Hey just a thought…everybody knows about those one horse northern towns that blow up when the local industry leaves or fails. I actually experienced that – like within 24hrs all the real estate in town endured a 50% price drop at the notice of permanent closure.
I left OK but I heard the vultures circled overhead for some years.
In the case of housing the easy local credit industry run by government/banks/real estate cartel/shadow lenders/the bank of Mom and Dad.
I know, sounds extreme and it is highly unlikely. But then, that’s what I thought of my supposedly to big to fail industry in that northern town not so long ago. Scary, eh?

#106 Realest realtor eva on 03.09.21 at 7:56 pm

House prices will never go down, 2m plus for a teardown in Surrey by 2025. Commission checks will be huge hahahahahahahaha ;)

#107 short horses on 03.09.21 at 7:58 pm

“The pressure is growing for macroprudential solutions.”

People taking cheap loans to buy expensive property, borrowing against inflated property to buy expensive stocks with no earnings. We’ll run out of greater fools eventually, just let it be after the next election…

Canada should be lauded for the diversity of its cabinet, but I’m not sure this cabinet has the answers Canada needs. We need the government to avoid making the same decisions taken by the Japanese government in the late 80s/early 90s, but so far they seem to be following suit.

It’s a blessing and a curse Trump’s gone because the Liberals may be tricked into believing the new gaggle is on our side. Let’s see how fast Biden moves on joining the CPTPP with everything else going on, ‘cause expectations among the 11 signatories are running high.

#108 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 8:03 pm

#87 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 6:36 pm

The kinsol is cool though. There are over 30 bents of
which several well-spaced ones were reconstructed,
then those were connected by steel trusses to each
other providing a supporting skeleton for the
remaining structure.

Apparently the Howe truss at the bottom was originally
at the top, but the trestle was destroyed in a flood decades ago and was rebuilt with the Howe at the bottom.

————-

Um… uh huh.

The trestle was needed to maintain a railroad grade through this section. It’s not needed for bikers and pedestrians to cross the river since the river itself has several bedrock sections suitable for a $300k bridge at lower elevation.

Trestle demo is also dead simple: charges on bents, click, boom, cleanup. It wouldn’t have cost much. Whoops, maybe that was a secret so reconstruction funding would be approved…

It was mostly an aesthetic project, so not one that excites me much.

Now, the Craigflower Bridge I’m proud of: functional, necessary and aesthetically pleasing with the lighted multispan steel arch girders. We designed the deck in a ‘football’ shape with roadway following one side and the other a large public gathering/herring fishing platform.

I’m always a fan of form following function. The trestle, as a pedestrian pathway, is definitely function following form, so meh.

#109 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 8:15 pm

#33 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 3:40 pm
#22 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 3:13 pm

They also guarantee no one would ever guess how this one ends.

————

Ooh, let me try:

A border wall will be built in 2024 to keep desperate Canadians out of the land of milk and honey. Human traffickers will spirit pompom toque wearing illegals across in remote areas on toboggans. Border patrol will identify Canadians by stepping on detainees’ toes, then waiting to see if the detainee apologizes. Begging, pleading, offering buckets of crude oil will be unsuccessful. Flotillas of rickety boats filled with immigrants will be launched to Venezuela.
— —- –

Sounds about right. Even an F350 load of bacon, a genuine Maurice Richard Jersey, and an autographed copy of “Never Cry Wolf” will be insufficient to gain access. No amount of beaver pelt, Tom Thomson originals, or maple syrup will suffice. There will be no easy escape.

Those who do not offer an apology for having their toes stepped on will be further scrutinized by being forced to pronounce the word “roof”, “diesel”, the letter “Z”, and then asked if the Plymouth Rock was produced by Chrysler.

Most will be turned back to the GWN, where they will be forced to bug-out to the boreal forest, and subsist on Lemmings, Voles, and various Lichens. Tough choices await those Canucks who remain in Trudeau’s post-national state of whatever.

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 8:16 pm

CEF
The CEO of Telus has acknowledged that his company was responsible for the problems with Monday’s Covid registration fiasco in BC.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 8:22 pm

#37 drydock on 03.09.21 at 4:04 pm
Fifteen days to flatten the curve:
17 March, 2020
358
days ago.
————
I know.
Trump was wrong as usual.

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 8:30 pm

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 2:40 pm
@#5 dave
“will Oil inflation tip interest rates?”

++++

Nah.
Our plummeting Canuck buck will force the “Budgets Balance Themselves” Mandarins in Ottawa to finally do something overdue and unpopular….. raise rates.
————-
I was waiting impatiently that some of the resident financial geniuses like Sailo or Faron would comment on this weird post by CEF.

#113 Check 22 on 03.09.21 at 8:31 pm

Is it true the average Vancouver home will soon be worth $6 million?

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

@#108 Sail Away
“Now, the Craigflower Bridge I’m proud of: functional, necessary and aesthetically pleasing with the lighted multispan steel arch girders.”

++++

Yes the new Craigflower bridge is excellent for all the retirees that want to fish….however… several years of traffic disruptions/construction later it’s still… a two lane bridge.
A choke point as it were for future road widening.
The “Calwood Crawl” as local Victorians affectionately refer to rush hour.

Please tell me you aren’t involved in the 3 YEAR ( and counting) “upgrade ” to the Island highway overpass (and offramps) in Victoria.
I thought Cape Breton Nova Scotia was the epitome of dragging out “Make Work” projects until I experienced the endless 3 year process of a small “cut and cover” overpass with the obligatory ramps and bike path bridges.
Please tell me you have nothing to do with THAT fiasco.

#115 Faron on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

#97 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 7:06 pm

Ah, the work of a Trump FUDster. Nice. Wikipedia background on the author has some gems (emph mine):

Paul Elias Alexander is a Canadian health researcher and a former Trump administration official at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. He attracted attention in 2020 when, as an aide to HHS assistant secretary for public affairs Michael Caputo, he participated in efforts by the administration to control COVID-19 messaging from federal scientists and public health agencies.[1] Within the administration, Alexander advocated for a strategy of mass infection of the public with COVID-19 to build herd immunity.[2] He advocated for colleges to be open with the goal of mass infecting infants, kids, teens, and young adults.[2] He sought to muzzle federal scientists and public health agencies to prevent them from contradicting the rhetoric coming from the Trump administration.[3]

Thought I’d give it a go, but when I looked up the references and found the first four from non peer-reviewed sites written in German and a few from the non scientific AIER and others that were peer-reviewed but where the reference conclude the opposite of your article, well, let’s say you need to put more quarters in the pinball machine. You’re out of credits son.

We are extremely fortunate that folks like him eventually get cast out of medicine and eventually from science completely. Wont stop them from hacking away while waving their credentials though.

#116 Todd on 03.09.21 at 8:39 pm

I think a rewatch of ‘The Big Short’ is in order soon. Canada is always a bit behind the good ol USofA

#117 KLNR on 03.09.21 at 8:42 pm

@#97 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 7:06 pm
https://www.aier.org/article/the-cdcs-mask-mandate-study-debunked/

lol

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:44 pm

@#110 Public Pandering
“The CEO of Telus has acknowledged that his company was responsible for the problems with Monday’s Covid registration fiasco in BC.”

++++

Spare me.
Telus has multi million dollar contracts with all levels of the BC Govt.
The BC Govt needed to throw someone under the bus.
“Hello? Mr Entwhistle? Do you mind if we toss you under the bus? We’ll sign a 10 year contract if you’ll take the hit! Ok Thanks pal!”

The govt has had a YEAR to figure this out.
Expecting 90 year old people to “phone in and make an appointment”
Pathetic.
Most people over 80 are either living with relatives or in Care Homes.
Go to THEM?
OR
Set up an injection Vaxx centers in various areas.( They’ve figured out how to have Safe Injection Sites for HEROIN)

Announce a week long injection system for 100 to 90 year olds. Bring I.D.
Next week its 90-80 year olds. Bring I.D.
Next 3 weeks its 80 – 70 year olds. Bring I.D.
etc etc etc.

Anyone trying to jump the line.
Big fines.

Gee. That was easy.

#119 Faron on 03.09.21 at 8:55 pm

#87 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 6:36 pm

Faron/Sail – you want “burnt bridge” upstream from kinsol.

Ha, I got it.

#120 Mr Canada on 03.09.21 at 8:56 pm

Banks are so backed up with mortgage applications my banker told me its 2-3 week turnaround just to get an answer or letter for a builder you are pre-approved…crazy…

#121 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 8:59 pm

#115 Faron on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

Ah, yes, the good ole Wikipedia reference check. Of course it is absolutely true if it is on Wikipedia. I love the depiction of him on it – “he advocated for a strategy of mass infection…” And another gem: “He advocated for colleges to be open with the goal of mass infecting infants, kids, teens, and young adults.” Ouch but obviously not written with any bias whatsoever. I wonder who writes this stuff – oh yeah, just about anybody on Wikipedia.

Buddy if call yourself a scientist, then surely you must be smart enough to know not to use Wikipedia for any type of serious research. It’s like researching off a box of Lucky Charms.

I guess the information presented is too tough for your left-wing science mind to handle. I’ve read your posts and you say I have cognitive bias…

#122 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 9:07 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

Re: bridge not perfect

———-

You must be thinking of the wrong bridge. Mine was perfect.

https://craigflowerbridge.wordpress.com/

#123 Dr V on 03.09.21 at 9:07 pm

108 Sail – think of it like…….Hawaiin art……on a grand
scale…..

#124 Comments! on 03.09.21 at 9:14 pm

I see, so CHMC and Canadian banks are “concerned”. The drug dealers getting a little worried about the addicts they continue to supply?

That’s rich, I must say.

#125 Annek on 03.09.21 at 9:19 pm

Sun Tzu on 03.09.21 at 6:54 pm
Gath,
Do you have any thoughts on the revelation that Canada’s Head of State is the head of a racist family? How can our PM tolerate this?
Knowing that if Canada went to zero carbon emissions tomorrow it would not change the trejectory of Climate Change, yet the climate crisis if the foremost concern of the government because Canada
—————————————-

Colorado’s legal cannabis farms emit more carbon than its coal mines | New Scientist

Trudeau legalized Cannabis.
He also is big on reducing greenhouse gas.
Read the contradiction here.(lol)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2270366-colorados-legal-cannabis-farms-emit-more-carbon-than-its-coal-mines/
T2 should go down in the history books as the worst Prime minister Canada has ever had.

#126 Winterpeg on 03.09.21 at 9:23 pm

#82 CJD …”Those seniors who died were largely living in poverty on inadequate govt pensions with no place to call home but the penal system type accommodation known as “Long term care facilities” amiright? Meager govt pensions and inadequate savings hobbled by unaffordable rent is a frightening glimpse of a future ahead for many of us “average Canadians” (and there are millions of us) with no govt pensions or deep pockets full of wealth to fall back 50 years of paying taxes later. ”

Yes the Long term care system is rife with problems and it is complex.
1) You have to be somewhere during your last days. 2)Those who are both aged and in need of 24 care puts them in the category of long term care homes unless they are very wealthy or their family is willing to take on a gigantic physical and financial burden of care. No getting around that.
3) LTC homes rates (in Manitoba, probably elsewhere) are means tested. ie. you pay a rate according to your income tax rate filed. Someone who is poor gets the same care for their meager savings and pension as one who is at the top rate. You still get the same (sometimes crappy) care regardless of how rich or poor you are if you require the 24 hour care in a long care. That is probably a fair thing when there are no other options. (Note that the death rate by Covid was worse in private homes than government runs ones, though LTC homes are still under funded no matter who runs them.)
Before you reach the nursing home scenario there are
1)assisted living places (Most are very expensive)
2)living in your home or apartment with increasing amounts of home care and family support. (possibly funded by reverse mortgages if you qualify)
Yes, low savings and meager government pensions reduces your options enormously. So I guess, plan accordingly, if you can.
Would like to see some more housing initiatives for all middle to lower income seniors but there’s probably no $$$ left for that.

#127 DON on 03.09.21 at 9:24 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm
@#108 Sail Away
“Now, the Craigflower Bridge I’m proud of: functional, necessary and aesthetically pleasing with the lighted multispan steel arch girders.”

++++

Yes the new Craigflower bridge is excellent for all the retirees that want to fish….however… several years of traffic disruptions/construction later it’s still… a two lane bridge.
A choke point as it were for future road widening.
The “Calwood Crawl” as local Victorians affectionately refer to rush hour.

Please tell me you aren’t involved in the 3 YEAR ( and counting) “upgrade ” to the Island highway overpass (and offramps) in Victoria.
I thought Cape Breton Nova Scotia was the epitome of dragging out “Make Work” projects until I experienced the endless 3 year process of a small “cut and cover” overpass with the obligatory ramps and bike path bridges.
Please tell me you have nothing to do with THAT fiasco.

*********
Agree what a clusterflux…both of them.

On the highway…it flooded in the first week…who would have thought….CraigFlower beautification project..didn’t alleviate the dock workers that Jam that intersection on their way home. But hey…at least the highway is semi functional.

#128 Mehling on 03.09.21 at 9:25 pm

From the Financial Post:

“Trudeau more trusted with the purse strings, poll finds, boosting odds of election
Liberals earned 33% support on fiscal management; Tories, just 24%”

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/trudeaus-high-marks-in-fiscal-ranking-increase-election-odds

God help us.

#129 Sara on 03.09.21 at 9:36 pm

#81 Felix Fanclub on 03.09.21 at 6:17 pm
#25 an investor on 03.09.21 at 3:23 pm
Biden’s dogs have been removed from the White House after attacking the Secret Service … lol

https://nationalfile.com/bidens-dogs-banned-from-white-house-after-aggressive-behavior-biting-incident/

————————-

Hilarious. Wouldn’t happen with cats

===========================

You obviously haven’t met my black cat. We cursed him by naming him Lucifur. The vets have to wear protective gear to examine him, even when he is given a sedative first. With his family he is a sweetheart though.

#130 Robert Ash on 03.09.21 at 9:46 pm

In my Lockdown time off, I have been building an Enclosed Front and Side Porch. It is a relatively larger structure. Today I thought time to purchase some OSB,…I am the Carpenter… Price: $49.00 CAD per 4×8 sheet. Two years ago.. $12.00/sheet…. The Two by fours – 8 ft. lengths, SPF 1 premium, was almost 25% higher in one week. That to me is quick and accelerating inflation, even given the Circumstances with so many folks, at home… I didn’t purchase the OSB. I inquired about Sheet material of T&G spruce flooring, not even good one side 5/8 inch material, the price $ 89.00. So I passed on that option. Drove to a small Sawmill, and will consider Rough Cut lumber… or delay the project… When our Money has purchasing power changing so quickly .. I am quite concerned. Where will this end…

#131 Faron on 03.09.21 at 9:49 pm

#121 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 8:59 pm

#115 Faron on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

any type of serious

I don’t take you seriously enough to waste much of my time on this junk. Sry.

#132 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 9:57 pm

#122 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 9:07 pm
#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

Re: bridge not perfect

———-

You must be thinking of the wrong bridge. Mine was perfect.

https://craigflowerbridge.wordpress.com/
—- —-

Nice clean design. Are those arches rolled wide flange or fabricated? Looks like some pretty long pcs there.

#133 Calgary on 03.09.21 at 10:02 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/just-explain-it/why-mortgage-rates-matter-152241574.html

Need 18.5% mortgage rate to cool the market

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 10:02 pm

@#129 Sara
I had a black cat a decade or so ago.
Got him and a Siamese cat during the OJ Simpson Trial.
The names I chose “O.J.” and “Ito” were immediately shot down.
The black one became “bat” the cat.

He was a diabolical hunter.
Would sleep outside on the black plastic food composter and wake up to leap on unsuspecting birds, moles, mice, rats, what ever.
I was sitting, reading in the backyard one time when he jumped off my lap and went nose to nose with “momma skunk and her 3 babies” who had sauntered up beside me……
Slooowly got outta my chair and backed off.
Nobody got sprayed.
Amazing.
Quick, Quiet, Qwirky cat.
RIP Batman

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 10:06 pm

@#122 Sailio

Nope. Its right next to Craigflower School (old and new)

Its a beautiful Bridge Saily , especially for the retired, non commuters…….
:)

#136 Faron on 03.09.21 at 10:07 pm

#127 DON on 03.09.21 at 9:24 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm
@#108 Sail Away

Please tell me you have nothing to do with THAT fiasco.

*********
Agree what a clusterflux…both of them.

.CraigFlower beautification project..didn’t alleviate the dock workers that Jam that intersection on their way home. But hey…at least the highway is semi functional.

I find this complaining distasteful along the lines of people complaining about art choices, having children and religion. Chances are the firm was working to a spec and further chances are that widening the road north wasn’t an option, so there was no solving traffic with the bridge (that has three lanes BTW). Don’t slag other poster’s work unless you can do better. Slug it out in the arena of ideas/politics/whatever. Not this.

#137 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 10:14 pm

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full#SM6

“Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate.”

#138 DON on 03.09.21 at 10:16 pm

#128 Mehling on 03.09.21 at 9:25 pm
From the Financial Post:

“Trudeau more trusted with the purse strings, poll finds, boosting odds of election
Liberals earned 33% support on fiscal management; Tories, just 24%”

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/trudeaus-high-marks-in-fiscal-ranking-increase-election-odds

God help us.

*****************

Well i guess that settles it.

We have passed into an alternative upside down reality.

They said show me the money…and he did. Not hard to guess they will vote for him. He just needs one more term.

Strategically vote for money in pocket now…the future will deal with the fine details. Party on! The election should be entertaining. Besides,
Biden is spending so Trudeau is not alone.

#139 Cici on 03.09.21 at 10:28 pm

“Scotiabank’s Derek Holt is lobbying for intervention”
____________________________________________

Yet, absurdly, Tangerine just lowered its variable-rate mortgage to 1.45% while simultaneously pushing its 10-year fixed up to 2.84% (from 2.14%).

So, calling out for “intervention” while adding gas to the RE FIRE with a 1.45% variable rate certainly sends out quixotical mixed signals.

#140 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 10:41 pm

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484

“While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less‐restrictive interventions.”

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00005-0/fulltext

“Although the effectiveness of masks is well established, in the analysis of Marks and colleagues, self-reported mask use surprisingly did not affect the risk of transmission. Similarly, Ng and colleagues did not find an effect of self-reported mask use on risk of COVID-19 transmission in their analysis of contact tracing data from Singapore.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3

“Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.”

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf

“What the results show is that, in the absence of strong assumptions, the currently most reliable data strongly suggest that the decline in infections in England and Wales began before full lockdown, and that community infections, unlike deaths, were probably at a low level well before lockdown was eased.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1.full-text

“…the model does not support their estimate that lockdown reduced the case reproduction number R by 81% or that more than three million deaths were averted by non-pharmaceutical interventions.”

There is more if you’d like.

#141 Faron on 03.09.21 at 10:54 pm

#97 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 7:06 pm

For fun, I looked through the erratum to see what “was plagued with important inaccuracies” means to Mr. Alexander. He’s a skilled propagandist. The “errors” were very small changes to numbers that generally make the mask argument more firm pro-mask. But, Mr. Alexander counted on his readers not to pursue that link.

What. A. Joke.

#142 S.Bby on 03.09.21 at 11:00 pm

For the pet lover tenants out there:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/03/09/pet-friendly-rentals-during-pandemic/

#143 Ian B on 03.09.21 at 11:04 pm

“I had an agent with a multiple bid situation the other night who called me saying one was for $200,000 above the ask,” a broker told me.” This is nuts. In North Vancouver almost every detached is going for $100-300k over asking. Most in the range of $200-250k. My only challenge is when to list..

#144 Rinse and Repeat on 03.09.21 at 11:50 pm

Yesterday this blog was savaged for saying, historically, four-fifths of price inflation sticks when a bubble market fizzles. It’s true. Unless there’s intervention. If mortgage insurance rules change, down payments are increased, loan rates allowed to rise, debt ratios tightened, flippers targeted or speculators taxed then sentiment can change fast. So far, crickets.

———–

Sigh…..

Every single ‘market intervention’ the feds and provinces implemented in the last 10 years have failed to curb prices increases.

We have been there, done that – reduced amortization rates, increased down payments, stress tests, reduced withdrawal of equity for investment houses, vacancy taxes, speculation taxes, foreign buyers taxes, etc. These ‘bold’ and ‘millennial crushing’ initiatives did not even put a temporary dent in the upward trajectory of prices.

And every year the market heats up, the pundits all come out, warning about the erosion of affordability.

But there is no political will do anything – and there NEVER will be. The current silence on the runaway market will remain in effect – because the feds and provinces have all had their economies decimated, are facing historic deficits, and will not jeopardize the golden goose of revenue that is the real estate market.

To believe otherwise is simply naive, wishful and hope inducing…and waiting for the market to change is a fools errand.

Everyone can rally at the current market conditions, but the sad reality for those that are buying is that this price appreciation is unstoppable.

Of course, if they eliminated CMHC, then renters and buyers would surely get the market they want. But the CMHC is never going anywhere.

#145 Genbizx on 03.09.21 at 11:58 pm

If we had the ability to enforce and strengthen regulations around real estate transactions and mortgage approval we would have less of a mess. I’m flabbergasted that it never comes up in these discussions. We seem to be comfortable with it all. Too much money to be made all around I guess.

#146 Garth's Son Drake on 03.10.21 at 12:09 am

Bullish on BC RE in the year 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020

Bearish on BC RE in the year 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, and now 2021

Market has pretty much just gone straight up with a few pullbacks over the 20 year window I have been in as renter and owner.

What next? Hard to find reasons for any substantial price upticks after this year.

I guess we will see.

I thought my buddy in Langley did well buying a lot line home for 680 only to turn it over 3 years later in 2019 for 980. Tax free. Well, now that same property is turning over at 1.4M.

Hard to call tops and bottoms. I would have said in 2019 that there is no way property jumps over 300k in a year or so would be happening.

The excess is obvious at this point.

Might list by Summer. We will see. Would consider now, but don’t want Covid guests. And also curious to see what really happens once lock-downs and this so called snap back takes affect.

#147 Zen Investor on 03.10.21 at 12:21 am

The BOC faces pressure to raise, but can’t? Hogwash. This is blatant proof laid bare of the complete loss of bank independence to political whim, aka Justin Trudeau.

The BOC ‘ can’t’ because Trudeaus June election call depends on an open spigot. The BOC and everyone with a brain knows how destructive the national debt, and by extension current personal debt is to the future economy, but it’s all about getting Mr Socks reelected. Methinks the BOC is taking direction from Gerald Butts not Benjamin Tal.

Regarding real estate prices, pigs will be pigs until the trough is bare, and even then the hogs will chew at the stall and floorboards. My grandfather was a farmer, he told me that pigs will gorge themselves dead, they can never get enough. It’s in the nature of pigs to be pigs. Leave pigs at the trough and they’ll eat the trough and chew until they weaken the floorboards and fall through.

A farmer can’t sell a pig that dies on its own. The excess becomes waste and corruption. How’s that for a current and accurate analogy of current affairs in Canada. Don’t be a pig or slipped by a lazy farmer. You’ll end up in a hole.

#148 Jane24 on 03.10.21 at 5:16 am

And here in a more normal world – Britain – the media are worried because house prices went up 7% this year and are expected to go up 5% this year. Outrageous apparently because people need homes.

#149 under the radar on 03.10.21 at 5:20 am

Top 3 % , no debt , good credit and cannot get a mortgage , i will give you 70% -75 % LTV 1 year open @6% 3% percent lenders fee. Must be in 416 and owner occupied.
That will get you in the door.

#150 Kanga Banga on 03.10.21 at 6:50 am

I think it also depends on whether we see sustained inflation. Home prices didn’t do “so bad” in the late 70s and 80s despite rising interest rates. This is not to say that I’m skeptical of low rates, but just pointing out that the last big cycle (73-81) didn’t kill home prices at least.

If rates rose on their own, then yes, I’d agree it wouldn’t be good for home prices.

#151 Howard on 03.10.21 at 7:09 am

#1 -=withwings=- on 03.09.21 at 2:17 pm
It means a place that could have been yours for about $400,000 last winter now trades for $613,000.

But why were homes in Owen freakin Sound worth 400 large to begin with? Don’t blame the last 6 months on something that started with 40/0 and has been going in only one direction since

————————————

Oh come on. The 40/0 mortgages were in place for all of 10 minutes before they were ditched. Yes it was a stupid idea but Jim Flaherty was a quick study and corrected the mistake.

If you look at the housing charts, although RE has been overpriced relative to income for a very long time, aside from Vancouver it didn’t enter bubble territory until after Socks came to power.

#152 Do we have all the facts on 03.10.21 at 7:34 am

One more thought about the possibility of real inflation in Canada.

When you look at historical examples of hyperinflation three contributing factors emerge.

1). A weak economy where productivity and revenue generation is declining.

2) The government debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100% and continued to grow.

3) Uncontrolled growth in the total money supply

When you apply these factors Canada the possibility of hyperinflation is certainly possible if preventative measures are not initiated by the Bank of Canada

1). 75% of the Canadian economy is driven by domestic activity financed by an expanding amount of total debt. A major portion of our annual exports involve the liquidation of non-renewable assets not the production of goods. Annual GDP growth has been less than 2.0% for several years. While the economy will expand in 2021 the possibility of sustained growth above 2.0% per year beyond 2021 seem uncertain at this time.

2) Canada is a Federation consisting of 10 Provinces and 3 Territories. The current total debt incurred by all 14 governments exceeds $2.0 trillion and is rapidly approaching 100% of Canadian GDP. This ratio is somewhat misleading since over 70% of our total GDP is generated internally and is supported by increasing amounts of government, corporate and personal debt.
The average Canadian household currently holds 171% of their annual disposable income as debt. Clearly a major force behind Canadian GDP is debt.

3). Over the past 12 months the M2 money supply in Canada has increased from $1.8 trillion to more than $2.2 trillion, an increase more than 22% in one year. While this rate of growth should slow down in 2021 the M2 money supply continues to grow.

My main point is that without intervention by the Bank of Canada the possibility of hyperinflation within Canada could increase as energy prices begin to rise and life returns to normal. All contributors to hyperinflation currently exist within Canada and are being closely monitored.

Garth’s prediction of rising interest rates reflects that the primary tool available to the Bank of Canada to keep inflation under control is to increase interest rates. A sustained economic recovery in 2021 and 2022 will accelerate the timeframe for intervention by the Bank of Canada.

Keeping interest rates at current levels as Canadian GDP increases is inflationary and will result in a substantial reduction in the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar.

#153 steadyplank on 03.10.21 at 7:41 am

Actually, myself ,having thought that the peak would have been over months ago , I thought by now we would be starting to peer over an increasing number of lower priced houses on the market. Even here in Halifax and the rest of rural NS of all places, it has been the exact opposite, with the prices continuing to roar sky high. It is,shocking enough that I have now sat back and just watched the fire take off, …there won’t be much left afterwards unfortunately.

If I am to believe the soothsayer, it’s ” just getting started” . I have given up predicting ANYTHING with such a fickle interventionist government. The trajectory of the economy and prices so far has largely been caused by the powers that be, not some subsidiary outcome of a global pandemic. The seeds were sewn long before covid.

More popcorn please.

#154 maxx on 03.10.21 at 7:46 am

Gubbmint allowed this housing mess to happen to the herd, having its eyes wide shut;

Realtors are screaming because listings are falling off the cliff – not out of concern for buyers. No listings, no candy;

The budget will be a package designed to get the current bunch re-elected.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 8:20 am

@#124 Jane24
“And here in a more normal world – Britain – the media are worried because house prices went up 7%”

++++

I see that that Brexit “thingy” is beginning to gain traction.
More and more financial jobs being lost to Europe.
More and more European companies deciding British Customs regs arent worth the hassle.
And the Brits squabble over EU fish boats in their waters…less than 2% of the economy.
Oh well, look on the bright side.
The Scots are squabbling and backstabbing each other with such effectiveness that they probably wont vote to separate until after the Royal Family are history.

#156 millmech on 03.10.21 at 8:24 am

Nobody blaming foreign buyers and immigrants with lots of illegal cash for this issue now.
Everyone that has any extra cash is shoving it in to real estate in Canada right now. It seems like everyone now owns multiple houses, it is self perpetuating at this point, put down 20% to buy a second house, it goes up 20% in a short period of time, remove excess cash and buy another house rinse and repeat.
This seems like the Bre-X moment with housing at this time.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 8:29 am

Gee.
The private sector and volunteers…vaccinating thousands at home or in groups… and no govt bureaucrats in site… amazing…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-pharmacy/how-one-small-pennsylvania-pharmacy-is-vaccinating-thousands-idUSKBN2B21CS

#158 Dan in Nanaimo on 03.10.21 at 8:30 am

Real leadership is coming from the FED and the CB’s. Whoever controls the printing presses controls everything.

The time to ask your employer for a substantial raise in pay is now. Actually, better make that request quarterly

#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 8:34 am

P.S. Vancouverites
I really do love you.
Signed,
Hizzoner

Vancouver’s Mayor doesnt know what to do about the homeless…..unless they’re in HIS yard….

https://globalnews.ca/news/7685142/homeless-tent-vancouver-mayor-apartment/

#160 Tron Light on 03.10.21 at 8:40 am

#141 Faron on 03.09.21 at 10:54 pm

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.49.2000725?crawler=true

“The quality of the evidence is problematic. We believe that RCT evidence underestimated efficacy while observational studies have overestimated how protective face-mask wearing can be because of unmeasured co-factors that cause confounding.”

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/12/e012330

“In an intention-to-treat analysis, rates of clinical respiratory illness (relative risk (RR) 0.61, 95% CI 0.18 to 2.13), ILI (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.03 to 3.13) and laboratory-confirmed viral infections (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.06 to 15.54) were consistently lower in the mask arm compared with control, although not statistically significant.”

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817

“The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

#161 ANTI-SOCIAL DISTANCER on 03.10.21 at 8:45 am

Thank you so much for posting my photo, Garth!

NOW KEEP 6 FEET AWAY ALL YOU CREEPS AND BUMS!

#162 George S on 03.10.21 at 8:55 am

#125 (?) Annek said:

“Colorado’s legal cannabis farms emit more carbon than its coal mines | New Scientist”

Of course they do. Coal mining is pretty energy efficient, scoop it up put it in trucks or train cars. You don’t have to heat anything and can mine all year round.

Greenhouse farming of anything makes a lot of GHG emissions. You have to heat those greenhouses and provide supplemental lighting in a place like Colorado.

This statement only refers to the mining of coal, not the burning of it anyway so it is sort of a statement of the obvious.

#163 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 9:09 am

#132 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 9:57 pm
#122 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 9:07 pm
#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

Re: bridge not perfect

———-

You must be thinking of the wrong bridge. Mine was perfect.

https://craigflowerbridge.wordpress.com/

———-

Nice clean design. Are those arches rolled wide flange or fabricated? Looks like some pretty long pcs there.

———-

Custom designed girders fabricated by Surespan. There are no standard sections meeting those dimensions.

#164 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 9:16 am

#136 Faron on 03.09.21 at 10:07 pm
#127 DON on 03.09.21 at 9:24 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm
@#108 Sail Away

Please tell me you have nothing to do with THAT fiasco.

———–

Agree what a clusterflux…both of them.

.CraigFlower beautification project..didn’t alleviate the dock workers that Jam that intersection on their way home. But hey…at least the highway is semi functional.

———–

I find this complaining distasteful along the lines of people complaining about art choices, having children and religion. Chances are the firm was working to a spec and further chances are that widening the road north wasn’t an option, so there was no solving traffic with the bridge (that has three lanes BTW). Don’t slag other poster’s work unless you can do better. Slug it out in the arena of ideas/politics/whatever. Not this.

———–

Thanks Faron! Much appreciated and exactly that… sigh, as always. We engineers are so put upon.

#165 Dharma Bum on 03.10.21 at 9:51 am

#24 Soviet Capitalist

Hearing more and more companies telling their employees that full-time office work is over permanently. To the least it will be partial WFH. Moving to Owen Sound seems to actually make sense. At least the traffic is not as bad.
————————————————————————

Few people realize that the COVID holiday is almost over. That’s right. The vacation – also known as WFH – is nearly done.

Everyone is behaving as if they are on some cheesy all-inclusive island vacation, and it’s the day before they have to pack up and get back on the cattle car that hauls them back to the airport for the miserable flight home to their dreaded soulless jobs.

You know those jerks that fly home from vacation sunburnt and wearing shorts and flip flops, pretending that the vacation is still going on?

That’s the WFHers. Pretending that their vacation is going to be everlasting. In denial that pretty soon, their lazy asses are going to be dragged back into cubicle city with Lumbergh watching their every move!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVmC0ktznNo

Time to get back to work!

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 9:57 am

@#164 Sail Away
“We engineers are so put upon.”
+++

Such is the curse of perfection.

The “Ring Knockers” out there have such a burden to bare.

#167 Classical Liberal Millennial on 03.10.21 at 9:58 am

The prices in my town 2 hrs SW of Toronto have reached peak stupidity. Or maybe they haven’t yet. Modest detached bungalows going for 100k over asking. I’m talking 6-700 for places that would be 250 a decade ago.

#168 Stone on 03.10.21 at 10:12 am

I’m reading away and get towards the end and what do I see? Uncle Garth.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-and-new-zealand-both-have-hot-housing-markets-but-only-1-has-plan-to-cool-things-down-1.5942438

#169 Sara on 03.10.21 at 10:14 am

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 10:02 pm
@#129 Sara
“I had a black cat a decade or so ago….

He was a diabolical hunter.
Would sleep outside on the black plastic food composter and wake up to leap on unsuspecting birds, moles, mice, rats, what ever. ”

================
I appreciate that you are a cat fan, and not meaning for this comment to be a personal attack (for a change…hehe), but responsible cat owners don’t allow their cats to indiscriminately murder the wildlife. Domestic cats are the cause of much decimation to the bird populations in particular.

“Although domestic cats (Felis catus) can make wonderful pets, they threaten birds and other wildlife and disrupt ecosystems.” https://abcbirds.org/program/cats-indoors/cats-and-birds/

#170 Stone on 03.10.21 at 10:18 am

So the big pension and sovereign funds are investing like VBAL, XBAL, ZBAL? Uhmmm…why do those fund managers get paid so much when they can’t think outside the box?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/death-of-60-40-portfolio-makes-returns-tougher-for-wealth-funds-1.1574742

ETFs, in general, do not have fund managers. – Garth

#171 Crusty Crustacean on 03.10.21 at 10:25 am

BoC leaves the overnight rate at 0.25%. I guess I will hold onto my VRM until I sell, as I’m only paying ~ $100 in interest per month. Diamond hands!

#172 Planetgoofy on 03.10.21 at 10:27 am

Pic seems a little heavey handed!
So if you bought RE decades ago ignored the noise kept accumulating…
You have options weeeeeeee
Id never be out personally but also dont have any debt just ever increasing cash flow through rents.
God knows what happens down the road? Csnt worry about it.

#173 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 10:31 am

In the new world where decisions are made in nano seconds, the US Congress is moving with a glacial pace.
4 month to decide on the relief package.
From house to senate, then back to house, then to President.
By the time the money arrives, many intended recipients have already died from starvation or were evicted.

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.21 at 10:41 am

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 9:57 am
@#164 Sail Away
“We engineers are so put upon.”
+++

Such is the curse of perfection.

The “Ring Knockers” out there have such a burden to bare.
———————
Ring Knockers.
Your jealousy is showing.
But somebody has to do the dirty work.

#175 Stone on 03.10.21 at 10:41 am

#170 Stone on 03.10.21 at 10:18 am
So the big pension and sovereign funds are investing like VBAL, XBAL, ZBAL? Uhmmm…why do those fund managers get paid so much when they can’t think outside the box?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/death-of-60-40-portfolio-makes-returns-tougher-for-wealth-funds-1.1574742

ETFs, in general, do not have fund managers. – Garth

———

I was talking about the pension and sovereign wealth fund managers. They expect to only eke out 1-2% after inflation. That sounds like an outrageously low return.

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 11:10 am

@#169 Sara
I no longer own pets , especially cats .
As the bird population worldwide has been dropping dramatically since the 1960’s
Some estimates say 40% worldwide.
Hence look in the mirror for any lectures about owners of cats and their tendency to allow their cuddly pets out to kill.

#177 Yukon Elvis on 03.10.21 at 11:15 am

#128 Mehling on 03.09.21 at 9:25 pm
From the Financial Post:

“Trudeau more trusted with the purse strings, poll finds, boosting odds of election
Liberals earned 33% support on fiscal management; Tories, just 24%”
………………………………

What that means is that The Libs are trusted to keep printing and giving away money and the Cons are not trusted to do the same.

#178 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 11:18 am

#132 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 9:57 pm

Re: Craigflower

Nice clean design. Are those arches rolled wide flange or fabricated? Looks like some pretty long pcs there.

—————

I may have misinterpreted your question. The top and bottom chords of the arch girders were standard W-sections. Internal struts, doubler plates and stiffeners were added. Everthing was spray metalized with a heavy zinc layer after fabrication because saltwater.

#179 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 11:28 am

#121 Tron Light on 03.09.21 at 8:59 pm
#115 Faron on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm

Ah, yes, the good ole Wikipedia reference check. Of course it is absolutely true if it is on Wikipedia. I love the depiction of him on it – “he advocated for a strategy of mass infection…” And another gem: “He advocated for colleges to be open with the goal of mass infecting infants, kids, teens, and young adults.” Ouch but obviously not written with any bias whatsoever. I wonder who writes this stuff – oh yeah, just about anybody on Wikipedia.
…..
Even without the wiki background check, the references used in the article are junk, either not peer reviewed, or distorted/taken out of context.
Faron is right, it’s a waste of time arguing with people who can’t differentiate between junk science and good science. Learn about that, and then come back and talk about cognitive bias.

#180 TurnerNation on 03.10.21 at 11:52 am

#18 Tarth Gurner on 03.09.21 at 3:01 pm
Interesting name. Is GurnerNation next up?


Once again every Former First World Country is going to be hit by reset-level debt and of course…the UBI.
Yep CV did that. The Crown Virus for the win.
I might quit my job and daytrade, a base $3000/mo UBI net would be nice. Why fight it..

https://www.organise.org.uk/income
“COVID has torn our world apart. Lives lost. Jobs disappearing. Anxiety and depression through the roof. But in the midst of it all, 1 million Organise members are coming together.
Organise is a network of almost a million people who believe better work is possible. And we see a basic income as a way to help our country recover from the social and economic shock of the COVID crisis.
An unconditional, basic monthly payment would make sure no one is left struggling to survive as millions of us try and get back to a normal life after lockdown ends.”

………

Wow 10 people. Lucky devils! Thank you sir may I have another? At this rate we got years of drips, drabs.
As Alphonse Kehaulic put it “Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.”

Sask. private gathering restrictions increased to 10 people(regina.ctvnews.ca)

#181 IHCTD9 on 03.10.21 at 11:56 am

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 10:02 pm
@#129 Sara
I had a black cat a decade or so ago.
Got him and a Siamese cat during the OJ Simpson Trial.
The names I chose “O.J.” and “Ito” were immediately shot down.
The black one became “bat” the cat.

He was a diabolical hunter.
Would sleep outside on the black plastic food composter and wake up to leap on unsuspecting birds, moles, mice, rats, what ever.
_____

“Charlie” our ginger Tabby, is a great hunter too (aren’t they all?), but his specialty is kicking the crap out of other cats.

I stepped out the door one morning and Charlie was nose to nose with a local Black and White barn cat. They were doing the growly Mexican standoff thing only 2-3′ away from me on our front deck. I could tell that B+W wanted to gtfo of there, but feared the consequences of turning and running. His back was to the balusters of our deck railing.

Eventually, B+W decided that I was scarier than Charlie, and attempted to bolt thru the gap between the balusters – only his bulky derriere did not quite fit thru said gap. For 3-4 agonizing seconds, B+W was stuck there while Charlie turned his back half into hamburger.

When B+W finally got thru, the scene on our deck was something else. Black and white fur swirling about everywhere. Drips of blood on the deck. Blood smeared on my nice white railing. Charlie was busy “jawing” trying to get big clumps of fur out of his mouth, and he had snags of fur between the toes of all 4 feet. B+W left a trail of fur behind him like a rocket booster as he escaped across the road.

I told Charlie that he was a good Kitty – he came over right away tail-up for some petting. I’m going to miss him when he’s gone. Probably my all time favourite Cat.

#182 DON on 03.10.21 at 12:00 pm

#164 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 9:16 am
#136 Faron on 03.09.21 at 10:07 pm
#127 DON on 03.09.21 at 9:24 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:35 pm
@#108 Sail Away

Please tell me you have nothing to do with THAT fiasco.

———–

Agree what a clusterflux…both of them.

.CraigFlower beautification project..didn’t alleviate the dock workers that Jam that intersection on their way home. But hey…at least the highway is semi functional.

———–

I find this complaining distasteful along the lines of people complaining about art choices, having children and religion. Chances are the firm was working to a spec and further chances are that widening the road north wasn’t an option, so there was no solving traffic with the bridge (that has three lanes BTW). Don’t slag other poster’s work unless you can do better. Slug it out in the arena of ideas/politics/whatever. Not this.

———–

Thanks Faron! Much appreciated and exactly that… sigh, as always. We engineers are so put upon.

??????????

Some blog dogs have a reading comprehension problemo…

At what point did I slag the designers of the bridge?

The new bridge looks great….just didn’t address any of the congestion. Can ask city council that question. Much like the blue bridge beautification project.

The passive/aggresive nature of some posters is eye opening. Especially the trolls that play happy assohole part

Pull your boot straps up boys.

#183 Sheesh on 03.10.21 at 12:06 pm

Tron
What you’re doing is known as cherry picking. It’s not a valid scientific method.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.49.2000725?crawler=true

Population level studies that consider COVID-19 spread before and after mask-wearing policies (and combinations of other control measures) were introduced in various localities [52-56] have more often than not concluded that mask-wearing mandates or recommendations seemed to accelerate epidemic decline in early 2020.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/12/e012330

Conclusions The study indicates a potential benefit of medical masks for source control, but is limited by small sample size and low secondary attack rates. Larger trials are needed to confirm efficacy of medical masks as source control.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817

Limitation:

Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others.

See how it works?

#184 DON on 03.10.21 at 12:17 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-london-s-financial-districts-1.1574984

#185 IHCTD9 on 03.10.21 at 12:29 pm

#169 Sara on 03.10.21 at 10:14 am

Domestic cats are the cause of much decimation to the bird populations in particular.

“Although domestic cats (Felis catus) can make wonderful pets, they threaten birds and other wildlife and disrupt ecosystems.” https://abcbirds.org/program/cats-indoors/cats-and-birds/
____

We try to keep the Cat indoors (sometimes he escapes) – not because of birds, but because of Coyotes. I’ve read in some areas, Cats make up 25% or more of a Coyote’s diet. We have loads of Coyotes locally, so it’s probably only a matter of time for a Cat left outdoors before it becomes a snack!

FWIW, I’ve haven’t seen our Cat get a bird yet. Mice, Voles, Moles, Shrews Bunnies, Rats, even a couple Bats and Leopard Frogs – but never once a bird.

Truth be told, I’m always happy to provide hunting grounds for the local barn cats. They can come by anytime they like.

#186 Faron on 03.10.21 at 12:38 pm

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 9:57 am
@#164 Sail Away

burden to bare.

Crowdie, please do not bare your burden. Thx.

#187 yang yun on 03.10.21 at 1:15 pm

New cities are needed like in New Mexico and Texas. Maybe someone with enough KIK could redevelop a cornfield in Southern Ontario as a new tech downtown.

#188 Billy Buoy on 03.10.21 at 1:31 pm

10 yr sold well, crisis averted for now.

Keep buying houses, everything is awesome!

THEY WILL NEVER RAISE RATES,,,,,NEVER EVER.

#189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 1:34 pm

@#186 Infallible Faron

Burden to bear or bare?
That is the question…..

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-correct-form-bear-the-burden-or-bare-the-burden

Apparently both may be correct.

To (lay) bare ones problems sounds more appropriate than (lay) bear ones problems…..
Don’t you think?

#190 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 1:36 pm

#185 IHCTD9 on 03.10.21 at 12:29 pm

We try to keep the Cat indoors (sometimes he escapes) – not because of birds, but because of Coyotes. I’ve read in some areas, Cats make up 25% or more of a Coyote’s diet. We have loads of Coyotes locally, so it’s probably only a matter of time for a Cat left outdoors before it becomes a snack!

FWIW, I’ve haven’t seen our Cat get a bird yet. Mice, Voles, Moles, Shrews Bunnies, Rats, even a couple Bats and Leopard Frogs – but never once a bird.

Truth be told, I’m always happy to provide hunting grounds for the local barn cats. They can come by anytime they like.

———-

Likewise. Our cat catches birds and rodents all the time. The majority are sparrows, starlings, rats and black squirrels, which are all introduced species, so we don’t worry about it.

We have over a dozen nest boxes and many feeders on the property and the birds are very keyed into the cat’s appearance, so most of his hunting is actually nighttime rats.

This time of year is right about when the crows start nesting. They mob up and completely terrorize the cat. He usually stays in during the day until the crow babies fledge every spring. The crows also decimate unprotected songbird nests, but they don’t seem to be able to get into the nest boxes.

#191 IHCTD9 on 03.10.21 at 1:45 pm

#178 Sail Away on 03.10.21 at 11:18 am
#132 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 9:57 pm

Re: Craigflower

Nice clean design. Are those arches rolled wide flange or fabricated? Looks like some pretty long pcs there.

—————

I may have misinterpreted your question. The top and bottom chords of the arch girders were standard W-sections. Internal struts, doubler plates and stiffeners were added. Everthing was spray metalized with a heavy zinc layer after fabrication because saltwater.
____

Yes I was asking about the big arched sections. They didn’t look too big, so I thought they might be standard WF’s that were rolled.

The Zinc looks good. Most of the stuff like that I’ve been involved with got Hot Dip Galvanized, and that stuff can really look like $hit sometimes.

#192 bdwy on 03.10.21 at 1:54 pm

#189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 1:34 pm
@#186 Infallible Faron

Burden to bear or bare?
That is the question…..

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-correct-form-bear-the-burden-or-bare-the-burden

Apparently both may be correct.

To (lay) bare ones problems sounds more appropriate than (lay) bear ones problems…..
Don’t you think?
——————–
burden to bear. – as in carry your burden on your back. bear a load. like bridge footings. or roller bearings. or what garth has to do with most posters here!

don’t think the expression traditionally meant to disclose or unveil.

#193 Sara on 03.10.21 at 2:02 pm

@#169 Sara
I no longer own pets , especially cats .
As the bird population worldwide has been dropping dramatically since the 1960’s
Some estimates say 40% worldwide.
Hence look in the mirror for any lectures about owners of cats and their tendency to allow their cuddly pets out to kill.

==================
Once again you display your lack of reading comprehension skills.

Did you not read what I wrote about the dangers cats pose to birds and wildlife which prompted your suggestion I “look in the mirror for any lectures”?

Do you think I would dare to “lecture” and yet at the same time allow my cat to roam free? That would be kind of hypocritical of me don’t you think?

BTW, there is no need to give up on pets entirely (ditto women ;)). It is quite possible to prevent one’s pets from killing wildlife. Also, it is much safer for the pet if it is not allowed to be outdoors unsupervised.

#194 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.21 at 2:11 pm

@#174 Ponzies Penultimate Pompous Paradigm

“Ring Knockers”
Your jealousy is showing.
But somebody has to do the dirty work.

++++
Many I a time I sat in meetings with engineers telling them why their designs wouldn’t work.
Every so often a new one would interrupt until I would ask a simple question like.
“How am I expected to fix that pump that is 30 ft in the air, inside a suspended ceiling, above a moving conveyer belt that cannot be turned off? Perhaps you should relocate the pump to an area where we can actually work on it.
My experience?
Most designers( engineers or architects) love to build something appealing to look at, especially if it’s never been done before……
But someone, eventually , has to fix or maintain it.
That would be the grubby, dirty handed people like me.

#195 bdwy on 03.10.21 at 2:17 pm

dropping the boat in today, hoping for an early summer.

as i plan to be out alot, and being presently stupidly overweight in cash, i best make a move.

so it came down to 1000 shares of either gamestop or berkshire. both about the same price right now.

berkshire won.

—————

bitcion is stupid.

#196 45north on 03.10.21 at 7:51 pm

some guy From a pragmatic point of view, the real estate industry in Canada offers nothing to the world. It enriches people who do very little for the betterment of Canada, they don’t invent, help or do anything vital. It’s an industry that sucks the life out of everything else.

some guy in response to condescending judgement
I’m doing fine but I want better for the country, I’m thinking beyond myself.

me too, I’m doing fine but I want better for the country. The Bank of Canada statement is an example of cynical self-interest. As Garth says We’re on our own. The Tiffer has left the building. Nobody’s in control. The worst thing is that established political power is determined to preserve the illusion that the country is fine. It’s not. I pray that their schemes will be uncovered. That they will be rebuked.