Roughing it

For two decades Rob has lived in the small town in the hinterland and reported for the local paper, the Sun-Times. “We’re seeing weird things,” he told me on Monday. “We were a sleepy town of twenty thousand forever, and suddenly everyone wants to live here.”

Well, 223 more people actually. In February alone. Enough to set a new all-time sales record for houses in Owen Sound. But it’s not just all the moving vans having an impact on this place about 200 km north of the Big Smoke. It’s the pile of urban cash causing the weirdness. And not in a good way.

According to the Realtors Association of Grey Bruce Owen Sound the average home price last month was 54.3% higher than a year ago. For the first 60 days of 2021, the jump equaled 45.5%. It means a place that could have been yours for about $400,000 last winter now trades for $613,000. And things are getting worse. Active listings are down 55% from this time last year, pushing the months of inventory to 1.3 – compared with the historic average of 7.2.

“Any time we do a story on real estate or publish the monthly numbers,” says Rob, “it’s all anyone can talk about. How can a young family buy a house here anymore, or anybody who’s local?”

Indeed. CMHC reports the average income is just a tad under $75,000, which puts the average house – at 8 times earnings – out of reach. Down in Toronto – a 2.5 hour commute (with light traffic) the average income is $109,000 and the average property $1 million – so real estate misery now knows no boundary.

But here’s the key point: in Toronto there are vast numbers of rentals and not everybody expects to live in, and own, a detached place. In Owen Sound (like most small towns) being a tenant is, well, strange. And owned homes are the norm. Properties working people can afford. At least until now.

Rob wondered why I thought this had happened and what comes next.

No surprise, since this is a pandemic phemon that’s hit every market in Canada, and across the continent. Nesting. Urban flight. Cheap mortgages. WFH. And a misplaced human conclusion that what the last 12 months wrought will forge the future. But that won’t happen. In Owen Sound, as everywhere else, herd immunity this autumn will bring workplaces back to life. Then we’ll see cities rising, higher mortgage rates, resocialization, less FOMO and the patina of desire stripped from the hick life. Way fewer people will think about heading north, bringing less competition for real estate and an end to 50%-per-year price gains.

The last people to offload their couches into $600,000 houses that cost way less a few years back may wonder what the hell they just did. The locals who sold will have reaped an historic windfall. And, sadly, the housing market in another community will have been forever screwed.

It’s a story playing out from Squamish to Airdrie to Windsor to the South Shore of NS. Covid cash, pandemic restrictions, human nature, emergency central bank rates, voracious realtors and omnivorous lenders have conspired to put the cost of shelter beyond reach for many. And while we’ve come to expect that in the big cities, it’s a culture shock in the hills and fields beyond.

Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades?

Nope. Not without government intervention. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains. Canadians just end up shoveling more of their net worth into a single asset, while taking on ever-larger dollops of debt. Pandemic newcomers who bought into a storm of interest may be completely shocked at how hard it is to get out again, or how quickly a market can grow cold and illiquid.

But it’s not all bad for the urban refugees. There’s always Wing Night at the Legion.

$     $     $

On the weekend this pathetic and prescient blog predicted we’d know this week about the date of the next federal budget. And now we do. It won’t be in March. So that means late April, according to a Deep Throat media source.

As a result it’ll be more than two years since the last budget, making Canada unique. Not only has our government spent more than any other in the world during the pandemic, but we’re the only major industrialized nation not to be given an accounting of public finances during the crisis. We can now only guess at the deficit. $400 billion? More? How much more? Whassit mean? What new levies?

The last update (not a budget) came in November, as the second wave was hitting. Since then (100 days) Toronto has been in lockdown, schools largely closed, airlines have chopped domestic flights, small businesses failed and government spending has ratcheted higher as tax revenues fall, taking the pubic debt above a trillion. Back then the feds said they planned to shovel out another $100 billion in recovery money which would be detailed in the 2021 budget. So it’s March of 2021, and no budget yet.

By the way, your taxes are still expected by April 30th. Sheesh.

191 comments ↓

#1 Rinse and Repeat on 03.08.21 at 2:06 pm

Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades? Nope. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels.
———-

Thats all you need to know – it’s too late for everyone.

The market is forever distorted to those that own and those that rent. No going back to balanced markets. Every single small town and big town market is now forever pooched because of the virus.

So why not buy real estate? There is absolutely no reason as prices will only melt up from here, cementing the greatest rate of return for those that were bold enough to buy – and those still bold enough to buy.

Any glimmer of hope – that the waters will recede, that rates will rise, that the government will intervene effectively – is dashed against the bedrock of our society, real estate.

Realtor porn. Of course prices will not continue to melt up as interest rates rise. – Garth

#2 Squire on 03.08.21 at 2:10 pm

We are going to need a big pooper scooper soon

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 2:12 pm

Chrystia Freecash to Socks,
” This budget thingy is hard!”

#4 Watertower on 03.08.21 at 2:13 pm

Hi Garth, my eyes somewhat popped out of their sockets when i read ” History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.” In my case I live in Calgary so – definitely glad to be renting the last 5 years while values eroded. However, with almost every small town seeing crazy increases in value in the last year AND the potential of a mere 15% correction – It seems FOMO is justifiable…

#5 Old Ron on 03.08.21 at 2:14 pm

Alberta and Sask are finally catching a break. Some of the Synthetic blends are selling north of $65 USD. With Syncrude Sweet Premium going near $68 USD.
The cheap Canadian Goo is going for mid $50s USD.

Good for them, its been hellishly rough in the oil patch for a long time.

It does make the commute from a bucolic little town to a job in the GTA a tad expensive though. I figure $1.40 a litre is baked in the cake by July.

#6 TurnerNation on 03.08.21 at 2:15 pm

#87 Keen Reader on 03.07.21 at 5:40 pm

Who me? Maybe I was just commenting on the City of Ottawa logo:

https://www.logolynx.com/topic/city+of+ottawa

– Double 8s is courtesy of Alphonse Kehaulic. And yeah so far lockdown to infinity in Toronto. He has a point.

………….
— Huge march crowd in QC.

March in progress in Québec city in support of allowing kids to resume all sports.
https://twitter.com/News24Wide/status/1368615552453869569

……..
This is what I was getting at – multi-dimentional warfare of WW3. As noted mid last year EVERY system designed to protect us has been turned against us.
– Schools have prison-like rules. Learning? Who cares. The global CV rules only ,matter.
– Police are bound to ticket or arrest people hanging out.
Not only here but in every Former First World county.

– One cannot travel to to USA that is banned
– Medical Tourism? Flights to warm countries are banned by the Feds. Other countries maybe but then you have that three-day quarrantine hotel bill.
Not even a Negative test is good enough. Sounds like a money grab all ’round.
– Paid taxes all your life for health care? Fuddedabout it.
There’s no money in that:

#148 LeeBee on 03.07.21 at 10:47 pm
Sad to see the healthcare waitlist just keeps getting longer. My Doc has cut his hours way back .Waiting times for an MRI in Durham region now approaching 3 months. Then when the results are in another 2-4 months to see a specialist. Gotta hope the pain can be managed for that long. Lousy system we have. I know lots of people who would pay for private healthcare if it was available.

#7 bdwy on 03.08.21 at 2:20 pm

I figure $1.40 a litre is baked in the cake by July.
———————

why wait so long? 1.48 in vancouver today

#8 dave on 03.08.21 at 2:20 pm

15% from the peak – so real estate truly never goes down. Just a blip or slow down and then back up. If the interest rates go up there will be a slight pause but then Trudeau will open the wealthy immigration gates and prices will go back up.

#9 ogdoad on 03.08.21 at 2:22 pm

‘Its all people talk about’.

Took my pets to a park in Victoria a while back and I heard two guys talking about how the house one dood just bought was his retirement plan. Wonder how he’s made out. Prob’ly just like everyone else in Canada that has a house.

If only priorities were focused on other things; there’d more interesting things to talk about.

Og

#10 Old Ron on 03.08.21 at 2:24 pm

bdwy:

I was speaking about prices here in the centre of the universe. (YYZ) About $1.27 / litre unless you want to wait an hour at Costco.

#11 Jay on 03.08.21 at 2:39 pm

So why would anyone in their right mind want to live in Canada, extremely high house prices, extremely high taxes and going much much higher God help us ,cold weather. And nonexistent leaders that have no idea how to answer a question.
To me they are all liars.

#12 The West on 03.08.21 at 2:39 pm

“But it’s not all bad for the urban refugees. There’s always Wing Night at the Legion.”

Been hustling cribbage at local legions since I was 11. Maybe that’s a way we can pay for these mortgages?

#13 Leftover on 03.08.21 at 2:40 pm

“History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.”

Not so sure about that. We’ve seen asking prices go up by 20% in our neck of the woods, but discounting has already begun as sellers are getting spooked by deals falling through when the bank appraiser kibosh’s the offer.

Main thing propping up asking prices is constrained supply as people are still waiting for vaccination to take hold before selling. Most of what’s on the market now has been on the market before and sellers are taking advantage of tight conditions to unload.

Later this year we’ll be vaccinated, the bond market will have its way, listings will burble up, and we’ll know what our (majority) government has up its sleeve.

If the past year has taught us anything it’s to expect the unexpected.

#14 Bartman on 03.08.21 at 2:41 pm

#3. Socks to Chrystia – no worries, the budget will balance itself. Oh Canada, whatever happened to thee?

#15 Cliff on 03.08.21 at 2:42 pm

Essentially, our government is in a breech of contract situation with the Canadian voters. We “hire” these people to manage our resources and the demand for accountability is part of that contract. If this were private business they would have CRA down their throats or be facing lawsuits that would expose their incompetent and even criminal handling of funds. What do we get instead? An incompetent dictator rewriting our future, a finance minister who has absolutely no training whatsoever in economics or business yet spends into deficit without thought of the future. Seriously, has the world gone mad that we would consider hiring these people once again?

#16 truefacts on 03.08.21 at 2:48 pm

Questions (Garth or anyone else)???

Why are houses so much cheaper in the US?
Can we do what they do to make houses cheaper here?

#17 Classical Liberal Millennial on 03.08.21 at 2:48 pm

“History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains”

That stat blows my mind.

#18 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 2:54 pm

Re: Picture
Is this dog called Comrade Boris?

#19 Billy Buoy on 03.08.21 at 2:55 pm

Does anyone think there will be a bit of easing in the housing market when the mortgage moritorium is over?

Combine that with perhaps a 1% rise in rates at the most plus the reality of job losses, that 15% decrease in values just may happen by year end.

Here’s hoping for those still waiting to buy. Good Luck.

#20 Penny Henny on 03.08.21 at 2:56 pm

Niagara Region real estate update for Feb.
Feb 2020/Feb 2021
New Listings- 818/831 up 1.6%
Sales- 578/699 up 20.9%
House price index- $441,700/$578,400 up 30.9%
Days on market- 39/20 down 48.7%

details here

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/files/Media%20Release%20Template%20-%20Complete.pdf

#21 NSNG on 03.08.21 at 2:58 pm

I can just see the bureaucrats in the budget office explaining basic math to Chrystia now.

That’s a nice little corner you’ve painted yourself into, government.

#22 RT2020 on 03.08.21 at 3:03 pm

” History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.”

So basically even right now is a fantastic time to buy real estate. To the the moon!

How did you possibly reach that conclusion? – Garth

#23 Dolce Vita on 03.08.21 at 3:08 pm

And here I thought I had moved to corrupt, ungovernable Italia.

Where you know, they were debating in the Chamber of Deputies/Senate this past January about how to best spend the EU Covid Recovery Fund (€200B) and whether, if at all, to accept €36B in loans from the EU for Italia’s healthcare system.

Brought down the coalition Government (not unusual in Italia*).

We ended up with Mario Draghi as the new PM and majority support.

…meanwhile, back in Canada.

————————–

* Italia needs to import Canada’s NDP where they will support the Government on anything** as long as it involves spending more money.

** Heck, they even support a Government that is now using AstraZeneca vax from India that was earmarked for the World’s Poor Nations but diverted as a Vax HELOC (Covax). Probably why India sent them near expired vax.

#24 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 3:10 pm

Wow. What a time to be in the markets. Giant leaps, slight pullbacks, giant leaps. I feel a bit like T2 printing money. Every day has a slight undercurrent of adrenaline.

If anyone is wondering, this is probably a decent time to review and rebalance to your target allocation. Think carefully about bonds.

#25 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:15 pm

Scapegoatism in action:
Marry a Prince. Find out life is not a Brothers Grimm fairy tale.
Move out of castle.
Go on Oprah, cry and make unsubstantiated accusations against inhabitants of said castle.
Nobody put a sword on her head and forced her to marry the guy.
Feel sorry for Harry, he’s no match for her B-movie acting skills.

#26 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 3:18 pm

The point of No Return… literally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsUXLvodlzk

The end of office life as we know it. More people are moving out to the boondocks every week. I am now actively looking at properties in the north central BC area and prices are up there too now.

Just tanked up for $1.64 a litre for 89 octane in Burnaby. Inflation is everywhere now.

#27 Planetgoofy on 03.08.21 at 3:19 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 2:12 pm
Chrystia Freecash to Socks,
” This budget thingy is hard!”
———————————
Socks to Chrystia Freecash
“NP, push button and add zeros”

#28 Dolce Vita on 03.08.21 at 3:22 pm

Canada Variant World

Up 155% in 10 days (Feb 21 to Mar 6, 800 to 2038 cumulative cases).

Nothing exponential so far:

https://i.imgur.com/AkYeY0c.png

Hospital, ICU beds not filling up either. A GOOD thing.

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:24 pm

#24 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 3:10 pm
Wow. What a time to be in the markets. Giant leaps, slight pullbacks, giant leaps. I feel a bit like T2 printing money. Every day has a slight undercurrent of adrenaline.

If anyone is wondering, this is probably a decent time to review and rebalance to your target allocation. Think carefully about bonds.
————————-
Sailo,
I come to this blog for financial advice from the Bearded One, and for entertainment from the steerage section.
Don’t get too big for your breeches.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 3:26 pm

@#25 Palace Pressure
“Feel sorry for Harry, he’s no match for her B-movie acting skills.”

+++

Hey, look on the bright side.
Those kids will have the healthiest genes the Royal Family has had for the past 800 years.

#31 The Woosh on 03.08.21 at 3:29 pm

#26 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 3:18 pm
The point of No Return… literally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsUXLvodlzk

The end of office life as we know it. More people are moving out to the boondocks every week. I am now actively looking at properties in the north central BC area and prices are up there too now.

Just tanked up for $1.64 a litre for 89 octane in Burnaby. Inflation is everywhere now.

——————————————————

Nope…Lancaster, Ontario had gas at $1.12 a litre yesterday. Probably $1.13 today. Best kept secret.

#32 I on 03.08.21 at 3:30 pm

Hi Garth, been reading for years. First time I have seen you use the quote “Nope. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains. ” If a pandemic such as COVID can’t stop Canadian housing, why would interest rates? Rates stayed low for almost a decade following the GFC and will probably be the same for this crisis. I agree they will rise a bit. I just don’t see how we will see a 1990’s crash in housing in Canada ever again. It seems unstoppable! Curious on your thoughts one day. As I agree on a balanced portfolio, diversified. I don’t have a bank of mom and dad, but my wife and I paid our way thru school, saved, invested. We could buy at these prices, but it really would be a choice between retirement and/or owning a home. It seems most people I talk too though, never intend to pay it off. Part of me is bummed though as at 40, we wanted to look at buying our first house, but waited due repeated news from CMHC and others saying prices would fall 9 to 18% from Feb 2020 levels….. We’ll be okay, but what of those without high savings and renters?

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:38 pm

#11 Jay on 03.08.21 at 2:39 pm
So why would anyone in their right mind want to live in Canada, extremely high house prices, extremely high taxes and going much much higher God help us ,cold weather. And nonexistent leaders that have no idea how to answer a question.
To me they are all liars.
—————————
So why would anyone want to live in Canada?
Ask the 400k newcomers every year.
And the millions in the queue.
Count your blessings

#34 Sara on 03.08.21 at 3:41 pm

“Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades?

Nope. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.”

Never say never. We never had a housing bubble quite like this one before either.

#35 CapitalK on 03.08.21 at 3:43 pm

Hey Garth,

You mention 15% dip after bubble, so if I buy a house now and it drops 15% by the end of my 5 year term I’ll be in the black again on my house value assuming houses increase at more normal 5% per year.

Are you using the 15% assumption across the board or will smaller towns out side GTA have bigger drop. When I look at market trends on Housesigma from 2017 peak in Keswick, Ontario median prices was adjusted down by more than much more than 15% on detached homes.

I have been looking into this because I have saved enough of a down payment for a decent home (2019 prices) and then this crazy market has happened shooting prices by 40% in 14 month span in the towns I am looking at. Just trying to figure out when the best time is to buy, I refuse to get into a bidding war, will there be a balanced market in 2021 at some point? Or are we stuck in sellers market for a long time coming?

#36 VGRO and chill on 03.08.21 at 3:43 pm

If the government is going to screw with the housing market, they have an obligation to continue to screw with it so stuff like this doesn’t happen. Or get out of it altogether if they don’t want to. This is a breach of a duty of care on a massive scale.

#37 Hawk on 03.08.21 at 3:43 pm

There is also another reason for this phenomena beyond the desire for “more space” and and the belief that work from home, is now forever more.

A lot of preppers have sold the idea, for quite a while that in a SHTF scenario, cities will become incredibly unsafe and rural areas very safe. I believe that there is some credibility to the idea that rural areas are safer, but the emphasis is being greatly exaggerated.

In a total SHTF scenario, simply living in a very small town, particularly if you are a recent newcomer there isn’t going to save you from all doomsday stuff that can befall you. Its not the equivalent of the super rich buying bunkers in New Zealand lol, not by a long shot.
Generally someone who is “prepped” to live of the land and be independent in terms of food, water, shelter, electric power etc etc is someone who has spent many years acquiring those skill sets. It’s not something that can be leaned in two weeks or even two months, just because you suddenly fancy that moving into the boonies will transform you into Davy Crockett, the King of the Wild Frontier lol.

But hey, people are funny buns!!!

#38 Rook on 03.08.21 at 3:44 pm

“There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains. Canadians just end up shoveling more of their net worth into a single asset, while taking on ever-larger dollops of debt.”

Doesn’t that sort of prove realtors right, and confirm what a lot of the folks here have been saying? Real estate prices won’t go down? It truly is a ‘buy now, or be forever priced out’ world? Housing prices only ever go up? Or should we be grateful for a 15% discount on an asset that’s gone up 50% in the last year? Or am I completely misreading this?

On the plus side, this summer I will be bidding Toronto adieu. I had to find work roughly 1200 km east of Toronto, leaving everything I’ve spent the last decade building here, to be able to afford dirt some day. Assuming it’s not too late already, and I won’t have been priced out by the time I’m ready to buy.

#39 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 3:44 pm

#11 Jay on 03.08.21 at 2:39 pm
So why would anyone in their right mind want to live in Canada, extremely high house prices, extremely high taxes and going much much higher God help us ,cold weather. And nonexistent leaders that have no idea how to answer a question.
To me they are all liars.
———

Canada is entering into a transitional phase. Plenty of Boomers and Gen-X peeps built a great life here, but it looks like those days are over – even in the sticks now.

Starting out today as an urban youth in Canada, you need a full on support entourage, or you’re gonna sink. I know a young dude just starting out in Canada, no family here, working in the gta doing 85-94 hrs per week. He won’t last long. He wants to buy a condo, and a nice car. That’s right, a post secondary education, white collar job(s), and 85 hrs+/week to get a decent condo and a nice car.

The difficulties of earning a decent quality of life in Canada continue to increase and multiply, eventually they will be reconciled – for better or worse.

IMHO, you can’t follow the current conventional wisdom and succeed in Canada today, you need to get off the beaten path and think up new way of winning.

#40 Dolce Vita on 03.08.21 at 3:49 pm

To be honest Garth I just do not understand what has happened to Gov Canada.

Canada is being ruled out of the PMO and propped up by the NDP.

It’s a BENEVOLENT DICTATORSHIP.

Keep shoving money down the throats of Canadians and they’re all good with that form of government. Give money to the Cdn MSM and they turn away their watchful eye.

Generalissimo Trudeau will probably call a fall election (most vax’d and happy by then AND Why Bother) and by the Spring budget will be forgotten in memory (as will tax season).

—————–

Epic Federal debt, the young cannot afford a home anymore and the WFH elites keep getting richer.

Nice egalitarian, democratic and fiscally responsible country the Generalissimo has created in a few short years.

#41 Penny Henny on 03.08.21 at 3:55 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 2:12 pm
Chrystia Freecash to Socks,
” This budget thingy is hard!”

Socks replies “What’s a budget?”

#42 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 3:59 pm

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:38 pm

So why would anyone want to live in Canada?
Ask the 400k newcomers every year.
And the millions in the queue.
Count your blessings
—-

That’s a little pompous Ponzie. I work with lots of brand spanking new immigrants in the gta. Mostly 20 something males from South Asia. From what I can tell, most of them have no idea what they’ve gotten themselves into.

I did ask a 30 something Chinese dude once why he came here, and the answer was because the USA had not accepted him…

Post-Trudeau Canada will see lone immigrants without family support face an almost impossible road to a good standard of living.

#43 Love_The_Cottage on 03.08.21 at 3:59 pm

Nesting. Urban flight. Cheap mortgages. WFH. And a misplaced human conclusion that what the last 12 months wrought will forge the future.
_________
Certainly all true. Also demographics were already driving retiring boomers to move to smaller towns is another one of the factors.

#44 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 4:00 pm

#31 The Woosh

Nope…Lancaster, Ontario had gas at $1.12 a litre yesterday. Probably $1.13 today. Best kept secret.

BC means “Bring Cash” for a reason …

#45 Ballingsford on 03.08.21 at 4:02 pm

Nice looking dog, looks just like mine, but my guy is chocolate.

He must be thinking whether we should start thinking about squirrel stews again while we ride this out.

#46 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 4:03 pm

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:24 pm

Sailo,

I come to this blog for financial advice from the Bearded One, and for entertainment from the steerage section.
Don’t get too big for your breeches.

————

Try this:

There’s a little click-ey wheel in the middle of your mouse. Turn it. Cool, eh?

#47 Dolce Vita on 03.08.21 at 4:05 pm

#25 Ponzius Pilatus

Best Twitter take on the “interview” I found today:

“I look forward to watching a billionaire question two millionaires on how hard it’s been leaving billionaires, to continue being millionaires.

Thoughts & prayers to Harry and Meghan in this difficult time, as they adapt to new staff AND a new mansion. ”

————

Nothing like good old fashioned dry English humor served up by a sardonic BBC and Guardian writer.

#48 Pete on 03.08.21 at 4:12 pm

I think your unintentional forecast of a 15% real estate correction is throwing everyone for a curve. Bidding wars have skewed actual property sales numbers. We don’t know where this RE bubble will end and, although it will not end well, where it ends will dictate how much it implodes. I’m counting on more like 40% correction in the hicks and less so within the GTA

#49 With a little luck ... on 03.08.21 at 4:26 pm

Bubbles will be playing with Snoop Dogg at the legion again and turkey sandwiches will be the blue plate special.

#50 Jem on 03.08.21 at 4:32 pm

“History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains”

How do we know for sure if historical patters will apply to these “unprecedented” times?

p.s. thanks to the blogger who answered my question yesterday – 20% of American cash was created in the last year

#51 kommykim on 03.08.21 at 4:37 pm

RE: Realtor porn. Of course prices will not continue to melt up as interest rates rise. – Garth

=======================================

I suspect what’ll happen is that prices will stay flat for a decade or more until inflation catches up. (kind of what happened in the early 90s but for a much longer period)

#52 meslippery on 03.08.21 at 4:38 pm

truefacts on 03.08.21 at 2:48 pm

Questions (Garth or anyone else)???

Why are houses so much cheaper in the US?
Can we do what they do to make houses cheaper here?
—————————–
Lets buy prefab homes built in China.
It make so much sense to farm out all good paying jobs
globalization has done so much for the middle class.
UBI and no one has to work. Yeah
Tax plan no one works no one pays Tax.

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 4:46 pm

#44 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 4:00 pm

BC means “Bring Cash” for a reason …
———

It’s too bad. BC is just beautiful, but I couldn’t live under the kind of government that keeps getting elected out there. Not to mention the insane housing, insurance, and gas prices.

Here in Ontario, we get a decent government once every 15 years or so…

#54 Guelph Guru on 03.08.21 at 4:53 pm

If C. Freemoney can print money for the Govt as required, then why do we need taxes or a budget?

#55 Shirl Clarts on 03.08.21 at 4:57 pm

#42 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 3:59 pm

That’s a little pompous Ponzie….
^^^^^^^
Hey now, Tractor. He might have been responsible for Jesus’ crucifixion, but I think we all know who deserves the title pompous.

#56 mark on 03.08.21 at 4:59 pm

Yes, seems the smartest buy RE.

#57 leebow on 03.08.21 at 5:05 pm

Nah, 15% on average may be. But that includes Long Lake, Ontario. In the GTA it will be more like Florida, where prices dropped 50%.

On my stretch of the street out of 17 houses only 6 have original owners living in them. The rest were either flipped or rented. This is 3.5 years after construction.

The whole neighbourhood is a construction zone. People are pimping up their houses with exposed aggregate, patterned concrete driveways, cedars, rocks and projection lights in all combinations. The uniformity of design and architectural intent rivals that of favelas in Rio.

It could fall only by 15% if that guy on the corner didn’t do sea shell stairs. Now it’s gonna have to go down 50% or be cleansed by fire. Did I mention front yard flamingos? F.

#58 Timmy on 03.08.21 at 5:10 pm

Where did the Tifster get his Economics degree? A mail order college in California? He is “starting to see some evidence of inflated house prices”…lol what will it take for these clowns to bring the hammer down before everyone under 40 is screwed?

#59 Emoji Freecash on 03.08.21 at 5:12 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 2:12 pm

Chrystia Freecash to Socks,
” This budget thingy is hard!”

————————————————–
Socks (aka Boy Blunder) to Freecash:

Yes, Chrystia, but what about your bachelor of arts degree in Russian history and literature from Harvard University and your master of studies degree in Slavonic studies? What about all those languages you speak … Ukrainian, English, Russian, Italian, and French?

BTW, Chrystia, a wise man once said …. “the budget will balance itself”!

#60 Eco Capitalist on 03.08.21 at 5:13 pm

My employer has been talking about a hybrid arrangement for office staff for a while now and is still working through the logistics. This week marks the first time they’ve let it be known that they consider hybrid temporary. Some time in mid 2022 they want us all back in the office. We won’t all fit, so they’re still working on that part.

#61 Christopher on 03.08.21 at 5:17 pm

Garth I don’t understand…

“Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades? Nope. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels.”
———-
If prices won’t be plunging and also won’t be melting up when more inventory comes on the market in june, then what is there to fear in buying now? A retracement of 15% would basically be in line with what the original CMHC expectation was?

What am I missing here?

I gave an historical perspective. In the absence of government intervention most of this increase will stick until the next market gyration. – Garth

#62 Doug t on 03.08.21 at 5:21 pm

That Dog says things are gonna get RUFF

#63 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 5:25 pm

#55 Shirl Clarts on 03.08.21 at 4:57 pm
#42 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 3:59 pm

That’s a little pompous Ponzie….
^^^^^^^
Hey now, Tractor. He might have been responsible for Jesus’ crucifixion, but I think we all know who deserves the title pompous.
——-

Ponzie can handle a little barb here and there no problemo. I let him go on most stuff.

I think you may be the first to ever have referred to me as pompous. It’s the dozer ownership thing, amirite? The camo gear? The tactical black Grizzly 700 maybe?

#64 dosouth on 03.08.21 at 5:26 pm

It takes a bit more time to knead and massage & political speak talking points into a big ball of “….we’re hooped….but vote for me anyway”.

No wonder I stopped voting years ago after my vote made no difference in the self focused, all about me politicians we now pay for.

P.S. – I have filed my taxes so there are more CERB funds to suck from. Belly up to the trough…..

#65 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 5:27 pm

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 4:46 pm

BC is just beautiful, but I couldn’t live under the kind of government that keeps getting elected out there. Not to mention the insane housing, insurance, and gas prices.

Here in Ontario, we get a decent government once every 15 years or so…

———–

Disciplined opportunists can always noodle out an advantage. I’ve never been anywhere this wasn’t true.

#66 Editrix on 03.08.21 at 5:37 pm

Okay, so it’s fairly obvious that Canada is going to be in a financial mess and might end up taxing the wealthiest so much that they will leave and go to Switzerland (like the UK in the 70s). Should I (not as a 1%er, but as an employee of a 1%er who could leave) start looking around for another country to emigrate to in the next decade? One that won’t be so tax happy?

#67 Linda on 03.08.21 at 5:39 pm

I’d wondered what the fallout would be from the insane price increases in formerly affordable locales. If I’ve done the calculation correctly, today’s house price increase example means that in future properties that used to sell for $400,000 will now be priced at $560,000 after the anticipated decline in pricing occurs post-pandemic. Ouch!

#68 earthboundmisfit on 03.08.21 at 5:45 pm

“By the way, your taxes are still expected by April 30th.

And don’t forget to pay those taxes, ’cause, ya know … other countries are depending on them.

#69 Tron Light on 03.08.21 at 5:50 pm

A new report just released by the CDC in the US says that masks worked to reduce the spread of the virus! Until you read the report that is – it reduced the spread by only 1.8% eighty to 100 days after implementation!

After opening restaurants, the number of cases rose apparently by 1.2% sixty one to 80 days after allowing people to dine in.

I’d like to see a report on long term care residents in Canada and the US about how many people acquired the virus there, as well as, how many people acquired it in the hospital.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7010e3-H.pdf

#70 Brian Ripley on 03.08.21 at 6:04 pm

“It’s the pile of urban cash causing the weirdness. And not in a good way.” Garth

Yeah, not in a good way. My Sales, Inventory, Absorption Rates and Months of Inventory charts are up for the 6 big Canadian metros:
http://www.chpc.biz/

Ottawa has now overtaken Toronto as the weirdest.

In February the absorption rate, based on Total Res-Sales / Total Res-Inventory is:

141% in Ottawa
126% in Toronto
45% in Vancouver
45% in Montreal
41% in Calgary
28% in Edmonton

In March of 2017, the absorption rate in Toronto hit 154%.

On the current inventory chart there is a growing uptick in listings which is seasonal but not yet indicating a rush to sell.

On the current sales chart, the volume is approaching the 2016-2017 highs.

We could be peaking here.

#71 Stone on 03.08.21 at 6:07 pm

Why have a budget in 2021? Worked very well for the gouvernment to do without in 2020. Why would they rock that boat? Polling currently doesn’t suit a budget as Trudeau’s ratings stink. Try again maybe 2022?

#72 Another Deckchair on 03.08.21 at 6:08 pm

“shovel out another $100 billion in recovery money which would be detailed in the 2021 budget”

Whew! I at first thought that they’d hit the 800,000 with above 1 million saved with higher taxes and no tax relief. As unfair as that would be.

Glad to see that they are going to be inclusive – free money for all, all, all of the people of Canada.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 6:10 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 3:26 pm
@#25 Palace Pressure
“Feel sorry for Harry, he’s no match for her B-movie acting skills.”

+++

Hey, look on the bright side.
Those kids will have the healthiest genes the Royal Family has had for the past 800 years.
————-
The British Royals were not too bad.
I’m sure Garth’s forefathers were advisors to the court and taught them diversification and balancing when thing got put of whack.
Interesting trivia:
The King and Der Kaiser were brothers, fighting each other in WWI.

#74 Watertower on 03.08.21 at 6:12 pm

Hey dogs.
I share your frustration at not having a federal budget however can we refrain from reverting to gender stereotypes and slurs please?

#75 Faron on 03.08.21 at 6:21 pm

#46 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 4:03 pm

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:24 pm

There’s a little click-ey wheel in the middle of your mouse. Turn it. Cool, eh?

That needs to be put into the entrance skills test to read and post here. I dislike reading Turner Nation and Nonplused, but aside from ranting at NP, I don’t think I’ve ever asked that his posts be struck, but my memory sucks. Regardless, scroll.

WRT equity markets. A few things. One, keep watching that growth:value spread. It’s at a decadal bottom (or was until 2021 picking up now). We can almost say that NASDAQ is crashing at this point, equities as a whole are not unhappy though. Check IWB vs EQAL. All the same stocks but EQUAL is less weighted in the gas bags. 1% differential. Check VVL vs VMO or VUG. 2-3% differential today. TSX vs S&P 500 etc. There are choices to be made in your diversified ETFs.

Finally, volatility. Despite a decent drop and “adrenaline” that SA mentioned in the markets, only a small VIX move today. Bigger move in VXN and VXTLT moved even more. I made some money off of volatility today to buffer some down, but the move was much smaller once the down trend was established. As The Market Ear reminds — don’t confuse direction with pace. VIX can drop with dropping equities given that it’s more a measure of acceleration than speed.

ARKx might explode. Cathie is selling her ETFs hard to media and in her shop is selling the better quality holdings (ones that actually make money) in order to continue to buy her less liquid profitless junk. Painting herself into a corner with less and less sq footage to work with as each day passes.

Humorous loss porn. Beware there is some TSLAQ content.

https://twitter.com/BagholderQuotes

#76 Oakville Sucks on 03.08.21 at 6:22 pm

What kind of dog is that in today’s photo???

#77 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.08.21 at 6:23 pm

Driving around a bunch today.

Started thinking while listening to the news. The commentators were reflecting on the skyrocketing home prices and obvious rise in consumer prices.

I always had a sense that I could do okay for myself when I was younger and starting out. First home in KW was purchased in 2001 for $119k. And that was for a 4 bed semi in a 1970s sub division. I had good employment prospects and between my better half and I we were able to put money away and not accumulate any debt. We lived and continue to live responsibly and within our means. We felt like we could be successful.

I wonder how much longer this can go on before a lot of young people just give up and chose to live at home and let mom and dad care for them? Honestly, I can’t blame them for wanting to do so- it seems as though the average person is climbing an ever steeper hill.

#78 Brian Ripley on 03.08.21 at 6:23 pm

“It seems FOMO is justifiable…”#4 Watertower on 03.08.21 at 2:13 pm

My Calgary Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

It depends on what sector you are looking at. In Calgary detached houses are fetching close to peak prices whereas strata prices are some 30+% below their 2014 peak prices.

Detached are in demand. Trends take awhile to correct.

#79 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 6:37 pm

#7 bdwy on 03.08.21 at 2:20 pm

I figure $1.40 a litre is baked in the cake by July.
———————

why wait so long? 1.48 in vancouver today

————————————–

Fuel taxes are very high in BC. And then Vancouver adds even more taxes to subsidize transit.

Gas prices are running 103.9 (Costco and Tsuut’ina Gas Stop) to around 110 most other places in Calgary. I guess both of the 103.9 locations are on the reserve so perhaps there is a city tax they don’t have to pay.

And there is the problem that most of the gas used in the Vancouver area comes via the old Trans Mountain pipeline, which is at capacity, so the marginal liters are barged up from Washington. On the water. So much safer.

#80 Barb on 03.08.21 at 6:43 pm

Inflation, inflation!

Had to order an item today for my business.
Last year’s catalogue price was $23.50.
Today it’s $37.25.

A 58.5% increase.
Incredible!

#81 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 6:43 pm

#37 Hawk on 03.08.21 at 3:43 pm

A lot of preppers have sold the idea, for quite a while that in a SHTF scenario, cities will become incredibly unsafe and rural areas very safe. I believe that there is some credibility to the idea that rural areas are safer, but the emphasis is being greatly exaggerated.
———

I think the bedrock for this belief, is that when the grid shuts down, you’ve got no options if you live in a 500sf box on the 58th floor of a tower smack in the middle of a metropolis. You’ve got whatever’s in your fridge, that’s it. No water, no sanitary, no heat, no cool, no fresh air even. A dense city becomes unliveable if the power goes off.

From that point, safe goes away as everyone tries to get out of dodge. The transition would be dangerous all around as most city folks running into the rural areas looking for options likely won’t be welcome. But eventually, the only way you’ll live grid down is the same way it’s always been done, via a few acres of arable land, and some room to move around.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 6:44 pm

I’ve prepared many corporate budgets.
It’s usually done by Accountants, but any smart person could do it.
The hardest part is communication.
It’s a sales job, more than numbers job.
90% is data collection and input.
This can be done by clerks.
This is even more true for a Government budget.
Just make sure it’s balanced.

#83 Bezengy on 03.08.21 at 6:55 pm

That dog is just another spectator at this year’s Iditarod. Go dogs go!

Seavey is now 9th, up from 23rd yesterday.

https://iditarod.com/race/2021/standings/

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 6:59 pm

@#82 Ponzie’s Pinnacle of Perfection

“It’s a sales job, more than numbers job.
90% is data collection and input.
This can be done by clerks.
This is even more true for a Government budget.
Just make sure it’s balanced.”

++++
I must have reached the pinnacle

I agree 100%

#85 under the radar on 03.08.21 at 7:06 pm

#81 – I think you have it right. The black out in 03 and the ice storm in 13? showed me how dependent urban folks are. Funny , at the farm this weekend we and 36 other homes lost power for about 3 hours. My generator kicked in and life went on as normal.

#86 Another Deckchair on 03.08.21 at 7:08 pm

@89 IHCTD9:

This one is old but interesting for more than the cars and fashions! He brings up lots of potential issues if “things shut down”

James Burke: Connections 1

https://youtu.be/XetplHcM7aQ

#87 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:08 pm

#16 truefacts on 03.08.21 at 2:48 pm
Questions (Garth or anyone else)???

Why are houses so much cheaper in the US?
Can we do what they do to make houses cheaper here?

————————————

The US housing market is extremely local, so for example San Francisco is way more expensive than Calgary. But if you look at someplace like Texas, it comes down mostly to cheap labor, different building codes (more relaxed), and a virtual absence of zoning restrictions.

So for example if you own some farmland near Sugar Land and you want to subdivide, done! The houses are slab on grade and they only put plywood on the outside where they need it to keep the walls from falling over, stucco is good enough. Insulation? What’s that? And the labor is largely undocumented.

Compare that to building a garage in BC and the differences become obvious. The building code for a garage in BC is more hurricane proof than a house in Texas.

Climate also factors in. Because the ground rarely if ever freezes in Texas you don’t need a 4 foot deep foundation and they don’t have to bury the water and sewer 8 feet deep. If you can drive over it, it is deep enough.

Plus, as always, taxes. Every step of the process in Canada involves a hidden tax on a tax on a tax. In Texas there is no state income tax so people can get by on less, and therefore you can pay less.

Economics also figures in. If you go to a place like North Carolina, there is no longer any industry. Nobody wants to move there and half of Charlotte is a no-go zone. The only major employers left are health care and the army. The countryside is beautiful though.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 7:12 pm

@#73 Prenuptial

” Interesting trivia:
The King and Der Kaiser were brothers, fighting each other in WWI.”

++++

And dont forget the Tsar of Russia was their 1st cousin.
Apparently Queen Victoria WAS amused.
Edward VII of England and Tsar Nicolaus could have been twins… they looked so much alike.

Interesting article on the European Royal genealogy.
There were so many arranged marriages to “Royal Blood” that 1st cousins, aunts, uncles, etc became husband and wife more often than not.
CharlesII of Spain was so inbred he had an underbite so bad he couldn’t chew, a tongue so large he lisped, and a deformed body so weak he could hardly stand.
When he died at 38 his doctor found his heart was grossly undersized, his intestines were rotten, he had one testicle that was blackened and his head was full of fluid.
His parents were first cousins as well as being Uncle and niece.

Yeah, I’d say it’s time for the Royals to get out and mingle.
Thankfully Charles II produced no heir.

#89 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 7:23 pm

#81 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 6:43 pm

Re: Apocalypse

…eventually, the only way you’ll live grid down is the same way it’s always been done, via a few acres of arable land, and some room to move around….

———-

I know, I know. It sort of goes without saying, but:

…and a good 360 degree perimeter-scanning, armoured vantage point for the belt-fed .50 cal.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 7:28 pm

Vaccination Part deux

Git call from a friend.
He landed an “emergency” job building out THE WAREHOUSE to hold the vaccines in the Lower Brainland.

He said its a sh!tshow.
They have to build out this place in an old crappy warehouse in less than 7 days because the vaccines are coming.

The govt has had one year to set this up…

And today was the first day the phone lines were “open” for appointments in BC….

Guess what happened.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/03/08/bc-covid-vaccine-booking-system-busy/

The donkeys have had a YEAR to set this up….. A YEAR……

#91 Faron on 03.08.21 at 7:30 pm

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 4:46 pm
#44 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 4:00 pm

It’s too bad. BC is just beautiful, but I couldn’t live

Ha ha. It is pretty tough. To wit, I’m sitting out on my lawn with the basset by my side drinking tea as the sun sets right now. It is some major hardship. I mean Ustabe, Sailo, Crowdie all seem to juuust be squeeeaking by. Just. But I coulda sworn you were tougher. Maybe if you opted for that tactical pink Griz… Just sayin’.

On a tactical pink note, Tanya Harding grew up just down the road from where I did. She drove a lifted F150 with hot pink struts. Clackamas County in a nutshell.

#92 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:32 pm

#37 Hawk on 03.08.21 at 3:43 pm

“A lot of preppers have sold the idea, for quite a while that in a SHTF scenario, cities will become incredibly unsafe and rural areas very safe. I believe that there is some credibility to the idea that rural areas are safer, but the emphasis is being greatly exaggerated.”

The first rule for surviving a riot is to not be near it. BLM almost burned a high rise apartment down that was full of residents. Fire couldn’t respond due to the riot.

I live in a “transition zone”, so not urban but not rural either, but it is at least a strenuous all day hike from the urban core. But even at that, we’ve had a big problem with our trailers going missing at night, especially “toy haulers” that might have a quad in them. Nearly everyone has video surveillance now.

The main advantage to being rural when the SHTF is someone has to make a greater effort to get where you are and mess with you. There will be no Antifa mobs. And if they do show up, well, there is another sort of thing that people who own quads often also own….

#93 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 7:36 pm

#65 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 5:27 pm
#53 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 4:46 pm

BC is just beautiful, but I couldn’t live under the kind of government that keeps getting elected out there. Not to mention the insane housing, insurance, and gas prices.

Here in Ontario, we get a decent government once every 15 years or so…

———–

Disciplined opportunists can always noodle out an advantage. I’ve never been anywhere this wasn’t true.
— – —

True dat. I doubt I’ll ever make any big moves, but I’m sure there is probably a place for me in some unorganized interior BC podunk where I could noodle my way to total swamp domination.

#94 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:42 pm

#60 Eco Capitalist on 03.08.21 at 5:13 pm

“My employer has been talking about a hybrid arrangement for office staff for a while now and is still working through the logistics. This week marks the first time they’ve let it be known that they consider hybrid temporary. Some time in mid 2022 they want us all back in the office. We won’t all fit, so they’re still working on that part.”

I can tell you how the last part goes….

Mind reading is impossible, but sometimes you can get a sense what’s coming by what people say and do. Not enough cubicles? I think you see my point. They have exactly as many cubicles as they are planning to fill.

#95 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 7:45 pm

#79 nonplused

Burnaby has a refinery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_Refinery

#96 Salutations Sally on 03.08.21 at 7:50 pm

#73 Prenuptual and #88 crowdedelevator….

All three (the King George V of England, The Kaiser Wilhelm and the Tsar Nicolas of Russia) were all 1st cousins. None of them were brothers to each other.

#97 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:50 pm

#66 Editrix on 03.08.21 at 5:37 pm

“Okay, so it’s fairly obvious that Canada is going to be in a financial mess and might end up taxing the wealthiest so much that they will leave and go to Switzerland (like the UK in the 70s). Should I (not as a 1%er, but as an employee of a 1%er who could leave) start looking around for another country to emigrate to in the next decade? One that won’t be so tax happy?”

My neighbor just moved to Cayman. Elon is moving to Texas. Ya, if you can move, do it, before they close the doors.

My dentist just up and suddenly sold her practice and retired. Now, I understand dentistry is hard on the back, but she was young-ish. I’m guessing she’s headed back to Iran or whatever Persian country she came from, with enough Canadian and US dollars she need not work again. She won’t be paying anymore Trudeau taxes, that I know for sure. I’ll miss her, she was pretty good.

#98 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:57 pm

#75 Faron on 03.08.21 at 6:21 pm
#46 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 4:03 pm

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:24 pm

There’s a little click-ey wheel in the middle of your mouse. Turn it. Cool, eh?

That needs to be put into the entrance skills test to read and post here. I dislike reading Turner Nation and Nonplused, but aside from ranting at NP, I don’t think I’ve ever asked that his posts be struck, but my memory sucks. Regardless, scroll.

——————————————

Oh come on Faron, you love to hate my comments. You cannot turn away. I read most of yours too, and equally love to hate them. Admit it, we are “frienemies”.

#99 Sara on 03.08.21 at 8:08 pm

#74 Watertower on 03.08.21 at 6:12 pm
Hey dogs.
I share your frustration at not having a federal budget however can we refrain from reverting to gender stereotypes and slurs please?

————————–

You must be new here.

#100 Ok, Doomer on 03.08.21 at 8:11 pm

“Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades?

Nope. Not without government intervention. ”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Beg to disagree. The process is pretty simple. The bond market forces up interest rates. With higher interest rates, house prices drop.

No government needed.

As to the 15% retrenchment, same issue; the math doesn’t support the supposition. If people are maxed out financially (and they are) a doubling of interest rates means that the payments will double also. The only thing that can give to equalize it out is the house price getting slashed. 15% is an arbitrary and meaningless number; just ask the Floridians and Arizonans when their house prices were vaporized by 60%.

Math is hard, but that’s only because math has now been deemed to be a tool of colonial political suppression and needs to be brought to heel by our betters.

#101 Sara on 03.08.21 at 8:14 pm

For the female blog dogs, Happy International Women’s Day!

#102 Faron on 03.08.21 at 8:18 pm

#69 Tron Light on 03.08.21 at 5:50 pm

First of all: As a scientist, it’s awestriking that there is a measurable difference at that statistical significance within an unruly population filled with the Tron Lites of the world. That alone is a massive result. But, the real significance totally escaped you. Unsurprising, but forgivable given your biased slant when looking at these numbers.

The daily growth rate was defined as the difference between the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on a given day and the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on the previous day, multiplied by 100.

So, your % changes are 1.8% in cases and 3% in deaths per day. Goes up to 4.1% change in deaths if one may add effect of masks+restos. I don’t know about you, but I would love to have 4.1% compounding daily in the ol accountarooney. I would happily take a tenth of that because the growth would be massive. Could retire in a few months or years in the latter case. But, you don’t seem to think it matters…

Regardless, it’s not hard to show that those seemingly small changes in transmission and death rate saved thousands if not tens of thousands of lives and tens if not hundreds of thousands of cases. Just compare what the case and death growth rates were in the states (5.9% and 9.3% respectively at the worst in November) to what they would have been (add 1% to as much as 4.1% to those numbers) and extrapolate that exponentially in time.

#103 Axehead on 03.08.21 at 8:18 pm

Ahh, not everywhere Garth. Come to Red Deer. I’ll sell you a real nice house for around $300k.

#104 Mr Canada on 03.08.21 at 8:28 pm

DELETED

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 8:31 pm

@#101 Sara
“For the female blog dogs, Happy International Women’s Day!”

++++
Wut?
Guys aren’t allowed to wish you Happy I.W.Day?

Just remember us on International Mens Day in Nov.

https://internationalmensday.com/

It wont be hard to forget its also my fave day……

World Toilet Day.

https://sdg.iisd.org/events/world-toilet-day-2021/

Yo Salutations Sally.
I knew King G and Kaiser Willie weren’t bruthas…. was just in a rush to include their cuz ..the Tsar Nick.

Willie had a wonky arm and hated the Brits for mocking him when he went for visits……

#106 Faron on 03.08.21 at 8:33 pm

#98 Nonplused on 03.08.21 at 7:57 pm

#75 Faron on 03.08.21 at 6:21 pm

Oh come on Faron, you love to hate my comments. You cannot turn away. I read most of yours too, and equally love to hate them. Admit it, we are “frienemies”.

I’m sure we could enjoy a beer around a camp fire were we to ever meet in K-country or whatever your Alberta stomping grounds are. That alone is a sign of the negative bias that pervades internetdom vs IRL. Regarding your posts, and no offence meant here, I have to skim lest I be tempted to write detailed rebuttals to just about everything therein either out of disagreement on principles or facts or both. Anyhow, I’m trying to take a YDY approach. BillyBob and The Jaguar severely rub me the wrong way, but I fear that my offense pushed them offa here and that, in the end, is not a good thing (except for Garth who maybe has a bit less to read).

#107 WTF on 03.08.21 at 8:36 pm

#74

Dunning Kruger too offensive for you?

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-robson-smug-liberal-government-is-too-incompetent-to-get-vaccination-right

#108 Calgary on 03.08.21 at 8:45 pm

Heard mortgage rate will rise again tomorrow.

#109 Faron on 03.08.21 at 8:45 pm

Gamma on the S&P still very low. Positive, but near zero, so expect “slippy” action until GEX gets large positive. DIX — flows in the dark pool options markets — is selling calls and buying puts. But, futures are up. Passing this on so you may be braced for lots of motion should you check your port. Def don’t buy or sell anything unless regular contribs or rebalancing. I hope someone finds this at least slightly useful.

#110 Sara on 03.08.21 at 8:50 pm

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 8:31 pm
@#101 Sara
“For the female blog dogs, Happy International Women’s Day!”

++++
Wut?
Guys aren’t allowed to wish you Happy I.W.Day?
=======================

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit eh? Of course guys are allowed to wish WOMEN Happy International Women’s Day. So are women, which is what I was doing. Duh.

#111 Tron Light on 03.08.21 at 8:54 pm

#102 Faron on 03.08.21 at 8:18 pm

As a scientist, I guess you must be right. Because Neil Ferguson was also correct. But I can tell by the number of times you post a comment on here and by the way you respond, you are smarter than everyone else.

#112 Elon Fanboy on 03.08.21 at 8:55 pm

DELETED

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 9:12 pm

@#106 Faron.
“Anyhow, I’m trying to take a YDY approach. BillyBob and The Jaguar severely rub me the wrong way…”

++++

Hmmm.
Funny.
I thought it was everyone that disagreed with you.

#114 Quintilian on 03.08.21 at 9:28 pm

“Realtor porn. Of course prices will not continue to melt up as interest rates rise. – Garth”

Prices will rise.
There will be a mad rush to get into the market as rates start to move up.

The final phase of the bubble.

Such is the madness of the crowds

#115 Robert Ash on 03.08.21 at 9:31 pm

Well there is always the Emigration option, if you don’t have a family or are a Retiree… Kind of sad really, since our JT, could have maintained a Figure Head presence, and tried to sell, Canada’s benefits, instead of trying to focus on Non Issues. He could make a significant contribution this way… Instead we have a Misguided person, who really doesn’t understand his own country. With his past, and his appearance, he could have been a great promoter of Canada, on the International stage, and really sold our Benefits… Salesmanship for ones Nation is important…Instead an empty suit, with just enough knowledge to prove how Dangerous the LPC is…or will be, and then we have Jagmeet, articulate and Misguided as well.. so inexperienced. We get what we vote for… Keep that in mind, later this year.

#116 truefacts on 03.08.21 at 9:36 pm

@ #87 Nonplused:

Thx. So the answer is taxes and red tape in Canada?

It seems like we’re screwing young people trying to start out in Canada and nobody seems to give a crap.

I randomly chose a house in Nebraska (which also has winter, so would have insulation, has a basement, etc). Not great, but only $200K US (or $300K Canadian)…

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/801-Mulder-Dr_Lincoln_NE_68510_M88891-75622

What can we do to make houses affordable for young families in Canada???

#117 truefacts on 03.08.21 at 9:40 pm

Supply and demand dictates price…

Lower immigration until we catch up and put restrictions on non-residents (many countries do this) buying houses would lower demand.

Reduce red tape and taxes and focus immigration on people in trades might help increase supply?

I own a house and am fine, but do worry about what kind of country we’re creating for young people…

ANYBODY…an ideas how we fix this housing imbalance for young families?

#118 Tyberius on 03.08.21 at 9:42 pm

There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.
————————————————————

Wait a minute! In the US collapse of 2007-9, the most inflated areas retraced more than 30%. We now have an even more extreme situation – so why only 15%??

If prices don’t correct by 40% at least Vancouver), I’ll never be able to afford a house!

#119 Robert Ash on 03.08.21 at 9:43 pm

In my opinion, it is very optimistic to assume that a Housing Market correction, can only experience a Price drop of 15%. I owned a Condo in Florida… top location, great building good management. It dropped from 2006 to 2009 by 50%. Then years later.. waiting our the Market appreciation sold for 25% less, than the 2006 prices. I am not sure of the market conditions, in the last 3 years, but I am quite confident the Market highs, have never been realized again… The same thing happened in Western Canada, in the early 80’s. Prices can take forever to rebound, but those Mortgage payments, are around a long long time.

#120 david on 03.08.21 at 9:48 pm

Thanks for the updates Faron, i have been playing around with options for some time now and it seems as long as you aren’t greedy its as close as it gets to easy money if you are paying attention.

#121 Faron on 03.08.21 at 9:51 pm

#111 Tron Light on 03.08.21 at 8:54 pm

#102 Faron on 03.08.21 at 8:18 pm

Ha ha. Whoa boy. So, the paper is wrong because there was a scientist who wasn’t 100% accurate once? Yeah, you should probably just toss out all of the science you don’t like.

It’s strange though, I thought you just pointed at the paper as evidence to support your view. But now you are saying we cant trust it. But you just used it to support yourself. But we can’t trust it. I’m confused. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

#122 Tyberius on 03.08.21 at 9:51 pm

@ Faron

You sound like a well-schooled individual, so please explain this to me, cuz you know…I’m a pleb:
—–
“In a statement released on December 14, 2020 the World Health Organization finally owned up to what 100,000’s of doctors and medical professionals have been saying for months: the PCR test used to diagnose COVID-19 is a hit and miss process with way too many false positives.

This WHO-admitted “Problem” comes in the wake of international lawsuits exposing the incompetence and malfeasance of public health officials and policymakers for reliance on a diagnostic test not fit for purpose.

This World Health Organization admission is that the crux of the “problem” is a wholly arbitrary cycling process which “means that many cycles were required to detect virus. In some circumstances, the distinction between background noise and actual presence of the target virus is difficult to ascertain.” [emphasis added]”

https://principia-scientific.com/who-finally-admits-covid19-pcr-test-has-a-problem/

——

As the PCR test is so problematic, why is it that Governments have been imposing far-reaching policies (such as lockdowns), based on numbers derived by it?

Enquiring minds want to know.

#123 Faron on 03.08.21 at 9:52 pm

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 9:12 pm

@#106 Faron.

Nope, I luv yew maaan.

#124 Mandria on 03.08.21 at 9:55 pm

Housing is now a major reason for suicidal thoughts in youth…great eh? Why bother trying you’ve already lost. It’s beyond sad that people are still considering this as soley a financial problem. You have nearly 1/3 of the population in extremely dire straits but no word for them…not even the small business owners have been remembered. Housing only, at all costs. Is no one else worried about unrest? Has no one anyone else seen the tent cities everywhere or the amount of people homeless and living on the subways. How can anyone think this will end well or clear up quickly. There will be no recovery until barriers to entry come down.

#125 baloney Sandwitch on 03.08.21 at 9:56 pm

After the 1989 bubble collapsed in Toronto- prices went down -30% bottoming out in 1994-95. In US as well prices collapsed 50% in hot markets like FL and vegas.

#126 Annek on 03.08.21 at 9:59 pm

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 3:38 pm
#11 Jay on 03.08.21 at 2:39 pm
So why would anyone in their right mind want to live in Canada, extremely high house prices, extremely high taxes and going much much higher God help us ,cold weather. And nonexistent leaders that have no idea how to answer a question.
To me they are all liars.
—————————
So why would anyone want to live in Canada?
Ask the 400k newcomers every year.
And the millions in the queue.
Count your blessings
———————————-
That’s because they can’t get into the USA.
I am advising my son , when he graduates from Engineering to move there. Canada is so so done.
Wish I had moved there years ago. As a health care professional, I would have made double ,the salary.

#127 They will drop hard. on 03.08.21 at 10:00 pm

A very unique condition caused the flight to the country …demand will fade, interest rates will go up, new restrictions will be added.

Honestly people need to wake up , the government and the BoC will continue to devalue your dollar’s until they’re worthless and a loaf of bread is $30 yet all people care about is real estate. Well they’re going to get their ass kicked.

Blockchain and decentralized finance is taking back all these bankers have stolen. Stop being debased by them and put some worthless Fiat paper into Bitcoin before it explodes through 100k.

#128 Jake the Snake on 03.08.21 at 10:05 pm

“… taking the pubic debt above a trillion.”

That’s one way of phrasing it, I guess, Garth. Nicely done.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.21 at 10:16 pm

@#110 Sara
Bless you.
All I ask is you spare us a few seconds and remember us on that other intensely multi significant day on the calendar…… Nov 19th 2021 International Mens/World Toilet Day.

#130 Rinse and Repeat on 03.08.21 at 10:32 pm

“Realtor porn. Of course prices will not continue to melt up as interest rates rise. – Garth”
———-

The piddly, long awaited, interest rates increases of five 25 basis point hikes from 2018 until the pandemic saw real estate prices actually rise.

Prices will continue to rise too with each interest rate announcement, as people try to pile in with pre-approved mortgages, extending the increase for years to come….

#131 A Dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar on 03.08.21 at 10:33 pm

Tax wealth just like income.

This will be fun :)

#132 SW on 03.08.21 at 10:33 pm

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.21 at 6:10 pm
“The King and Der Kaiser were brothers, fighting each other in WWI.”

Nope – George V and Kaiser Wilhelm were first cousins, having Queen Victoria as their grandmother.

Shocking royal scandals serve as a great distraction for the populace. People take sides in a game of no consequence to themselves, encouraged by news media (I’m shocked to say).

Diana Spencer, Sarah Ferguson and Meghan Markle are just part of the long line of mistreated women in that family going back to Caroline of Brunswick, if not Anne Boleyn.

#133 millmech on 03.08.21 at 11:05 pm

#109
100 shares of Gamestop, got it!
Gamma squeeze coming!

#134 Sparrow on 03.08.21 at 11:08 pm

Harry is a simp…..

“I wish him luck….he’s gonna need it.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simp

#135 KNOW IT ALL on 03.08.21 at 11:30 pm

We can only be thankful that the “Scarecrow” man with no-brain is running the Whitehouse.

It’s an all out buffett for the next 4 years. His advisory team “wink-wink” will be guiding him on what to do.

Everything going up Up UP!!!

#136 AlMac on 03.08.21 at 11:56 pm

Sara
The lads are not in your league. Keep it up!

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 12:07 am

Today was the first day to register for shots in BC.
Was supposed to be for 80 and over.
1.4 million idiots jammed the lines.
Very few got through.
Guess who the blamed?
The Gubernment, of course.
Bloody, freaking stoopid sheep.

#138 Nonplused on 03.09.21 at 12:47 am

#95 S.Bby on 03.08.21 at 7:45 pm
#79 nonplused

Burnaby has a refinery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_Refinery

——————————–

What, pray tell, is the Kinder Morgan pipeline referenced in said article? Oh ya that would be Trans Mountain. The article needs to be updated because it is a Trudeau owned pipeline now, but it is the same one.

#139 Zen Investor on 03.09.21 at 1:02 am

Buying real estate and etf’s ? Nice move Goober. Both hot hand strategies bound to fail. What is that book called? ” The madness of crowds”? Even people who describe themselves as smart don’t get investing.

Which is why retail investors NEVER get rich. This is also described in detail in a most simplistic way in a book over 40 years old, ” Where are all the customers yachts?”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/cathie-wood-says-the-underlying-bull-market-is-strengthening-will-benefit-arks-strategy-over-time.html

Just the other day I’m watching an interview of a ” finance reporter” about ” being a day trader”. Turns out she has no experiance investing whatsoever. But this is the type of crap from the media most people lose themselves in.

Excuses like ‘ index investing’ is why Warren Buffett buys individual stocks? Passive investing beating uneducated fund managers over the long term, relatable nonsense. Put two idiots in a sack race and what do you get?

Buying good companies is what buys yachts, not a dumbed down strategy of ” low risk”. If low risk was king why is CP Rail rewarding investors with a 5-1 split after quadrupling in five years?

People who talk about investing in the stock market and people who actually take the systemic risk of investing in the stock market are what makes .069% of Canadians multimillionaires and the rest not.

#140 45north on 03.09.21 at 1:25 am

Will prices plunge as the pathogen fades?
Nope. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains. Canadians just end up shovelling more of their net worth into a single asset, while taking on ever-larger dollops of debt. Pandemic newcomers who bought into a storm of interest may be completely shocked at how hard it is to get out again, or how quickly a market can grow cold and illiquid.

Robert Ash I owned a Condo in Florida… top location, great building good management. It dropped from 2006 to 2009 by 50%.

yeah and I figured Canada would drop too but it didn’t. Supposing that Owen Sound dropped 50% then a $600,000 house would drop to $300,000. Toronto would drop from $1 million to $ 0.5 million. Funny the liberals (small L) want affordable housing but they cannot allow the price to drop.

#141 Faron on 03.09.21 at 5:13 am

#197 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 2:30 pm

“Canada’s top billionaires are $37 billion richer since start of the pandemic, CCPA report finds”

Funny you should blame the Liberal government for that when the richest in the US have also grown multiples wealthier under a, let’s just say, not liberal gov’t. But, you sound like you would blame liberals when your coffee gets cold too. So… not surprising.

#142 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 7:50 am

#120 david on 03.08.21 at 9:48 pm

Thanks for the updates Faron, i have been playing around with options for some time now and it seems as long as you aren’t greedy its as close as it gets to easy money if you are paying attention.

————

Yes, options are just another piece of the game that can also work when approached logically. There are of course the quants who make it their life, particularly the most successful ever, Jim Simons, who returned around 70% annually and of course NN Taleb.

Buffett uses options. And because Buffett does, I will eventually do the same. No choice, really. Where the master leads, his disciples must follow.

#143 Do we have all the facts on 03.09.21 at 8:12 am

I find it hard to ignore the obvious connection between the average price of a home and the average household income of first time home buyers. How can the average price of housing increase by more than 20% in one year while average wage levels of prospective first time home buyers increased by less than 3.0% over the same period.

Historically 50% of all home purchases each year are made by first time home buyers. The net worth of a large majority of first time home buyers is substantially lower than the average net worth of the 68% of Canadian households that own their home. As average home prices escalate and the household income of prospective first time home buyers fails to keep pace a serious disconnect will become evident.

Grants to first time home buyers, low interest loans for down payments, relaxed stress tests, extension of amortization periods, etc. cannot hide the fact that the current household incomes of prospective first time home buyers across Canada are not sufficient to enter the current housing market.

At some point the intrinsic value of homes must be adjusted to reflect the household incomes of prospective first time home buyers. The suggestion that the adjustment in value will not exceed 15% does not seem to be based on current household income levels across
Canada.

The suggestion that average prices can continue to increase each year flys in the face of actual household income levels. At some point reality will result in a substantial correction in current values.

#144 millmech on 03.09.21 at 8:17 am

#123
What is sad is that people actually believe that the end all and be all of life is a house.

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:27 am

@#122 Faron
“Nope, I luv yew maaan.”

+++
I know.
It’s my irresistible charm, my rapier wit, my “aura” if you will … has that effect.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:34 am

@#135 People panic

“Today was the first day to register for shots in BC.
Was supposed to be for 80 and over.
1.4 million idiots jammed the lines.”

++++

Rules are for other people.
About 40,000 people in BC over 80 and any Aboriginals over the age of 65 were supposed to call the line.
Lets assume 250,000 people were trying to call in?

I wonder how many of those 1.4 million calls were the same people over and over and over.

The Govt gong show has just started.
They have had a YEAR to prepare for this.

#147 Howard on 03.09.21 at 8:55 am

Nope. Not without government intervention. There’ll be no retracing back to 2019 levels. History shows that after a bubble occurs prices can retreat 15% or so, but four-fifths of the inflation remains.

———————————

Then why did Toronto drop 32% between 1989 and 1996, wiping out about 70% of the gain from 1985-89?

Toronto prices declined 32% as interest rates spiked. A similar situation is possible, but (as indicated) that would involve a policy reversal. – Garth

#148 Kato on 03.09.21 at 9:04 am

#137 Zen Investor on 03.09.21 at 1:02 am
Buying real estate and etf’s ? Nice move Goober. Both hot hand strategies bound to fail. What is that book called? ” The madness of crowds”? Even people who describe themselves as smart don’t get investing.
….
People who talk about investing in the stock market and people who actually take the systemic risk of investing in the stock market are what makes .069% of Canadians multimillionaires and the rest not.
___________________________

Missing from your stats are the people who invest in the stock market based on their brother-in-law’s bad advice and lose money. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

You’ve got the system figured and it’s a money machine (congratulations), but a pleb like me is too dumb for that.

The Country Club keeps sending me rejection letters even though I’ve never applied. They heard I invest in ETFs and want to make it clear I am not welcome in their company.

#149 Dharma Bum on 03.09.21 at 9:05 am

#77 Rogerhomeinspector

I wonder how much longer this can go on before a lot of young people just give up and chose to live at home and let mom and dad care for them?
=========================================

How much longer?

Well, we’re long past that point. Wayyyy past!

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/millennials-living-at-home_ca_5e30a918c5b6e8375f644d6d

It’s a lost generation.

#150 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.09.21 at 9:07 am

DELETED

#151 Howard on 03.09.21 at 9:10 am

To add to Toronto’s 1989-96 32% decline :

– USA 2006-12, -35%
– Spain 2007-14, -50%
– Ireland 2007-12, -54%
– Japan 1990-2005, -50%

In the latter three all the bubble gains were wiped out.

In the US 2008, most of the gains were nullified. And as we know, certain states like Arizona and Nevada saw 60% declines in spite of their rapid population growth.

And in none of those situations were economies coming out of recessions or economic crises, as we are. They were entering them. – Garth

#152 Dharma Bum on 03.09.21 at 9:13 am

#103 Axehead

Ahh, not everywhere Garth. Come to Red Deer. I’ll sell you a real nice house for around $300k.
———————————————————————–

Yesiree!

I love it there.

And within 20 minutes, you can git yerself a whole ranch for about $600K. I mean multiple acres, with a really nice house, massive detached garage, barn, sheds, trees, trails, wildlife, and streams.

I’m heading there in April. Gotta find a nice private homestead where I can take target practice in peace.

#153 TurnerNation on 03.09.21 at 9:20 am

Telsa: is this why the old Texas grid was almost taken down? Would be reeeel shame if something happened to it, and the Globalists’ companies came in and took over.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid

— In general dependence on electricity means paying outrageous monopolistic fees. See your local power bill recently? Maybe that’ the point. Energy Poverty.
……

— Control over our Breeding alright:

https://unherd.com/thepost/first-evidence-from-spain-the-impact-of-lockdown-on-fertility/
Nor is this decline in birthrates confined to just Spain:
“…the data agrees with what we expected and what we are seeing in other countries,” explains Diego Ramiro, director of the Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography of the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC). In December, the reduction in Italy was 21.6%. In January, births fell in France by 13%. “In some states of the United States such as Florida, California or Hawaii, there have been falls from 5% to almost 20%,” he adds.”

………..
— I Love science. If you are ‘essential’ that is a truck driver, airline staff etc you need not quarrantine as you will not get sick. Simple science. More good news, Auto Parts Executives also will not get sick if they are declared ‘essential’.
It’s just that simple. Friends of The Party need not quarrantine. But if you vacation to a Sun Destination you endanger all of us with your travel! The science is settled.

“Globe says Martinrea, rivals seek travel exemptions
The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that auto-parts makers want Ottawa to allow their travelling executives and staff to be designated as essential business workers so they can avoid being ordered into quarantine. The Globe’s Steven Chase writes that the Canadian auto-parts sector is now at a competitive disadvantage in relation to American rivals, which face no pandemic travel restrictions travelling state to state. Martinrea International chairman Rob Wildeboer says the situation has been getting worse since last fall as Canadian border guards stop executives and staff attempting to enter or re-enter Canada and direct them into a 14-day quarantine. “

#154 kc on 03.09.21 at 9:26 am

122 Tyberius on 03.08.21 at 9:51 pm

As the PCR test is so problematic, why is it that Governments have been imposing far-reaching policies (such as lockdowns), based on numbers derived by it?

Enquiring minds want to know.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Where have you been for the past year?

Doctors and many people have been talking about this for months. I have made a few points of references to this same problem.

With a HIGH CT count it equals MORE CASES. Lower the count and the case numbers go down.

Equal that to any agenda the government needs… say TRUMP is not doing anything because high case numbers are found with a high CT count. Biden gets in, drop the CT and case numbers decrease… bingo Biden saves the day. masks work, vaccines work.

It is so voodoo that the results are controlled.

No one wants to agree with the medical people that have been screaming and silenced about these facts. Banned from falsebook and titser.

It is the “Stockholm syndrome” at play here. Ramped up horrors 24/7 on TV and Radio….

Some well read and knowledgeable people are not conspiracy theory nuts…. sometimes they know what they are talking about.

Now we are at the point were when mask mandates are abolished, people will continue to wear them and slather that cancer causing “sanitation crap” on their hands because a year of it has been crammed into their heads…..

cheers

#155 Sara on 03.09.21 at 9:38 am

#135 AlMac on 03.08.21 at 11:56 pm
Sara
The lads are not in your league. Keep it up!

====================

Thanks AlMac!

#156 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 9:41 am

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 8:27 a

It’s my irresistible charm, my rapier wit, my “aura” if you will … has that effect.

————

Like this:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/32f46778-c906-446b-bb57-d1947e9f5466

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 9:49 am

@#155 Sailio

exactly

#158 MT on 03.09.21 at 9:56 am

***How can a young family buy a house here anymore, or anybody who’s local?”***

Yup. I am a physician at a small hospital in rural NS, and this past year every single and solitary time I work at the ED, I meet someone who doesn’t have a doctor because they “just moved here from Ontario”. I had hoped that my little corner of the world would avoid the rising home prices, and I think it may have except that COVID and WFH or WFTO (my acronym, meaning “work from the oceanside”) threw high-octane gas on the phenomenon.

#159 KLNR on 03.09.21 at 10:25 am

@#143 millmech on 03.09.21 at 8:17 am
#123
What is sad is that people actually believe that the end all and be all of life is a house.

my folks have never owned a property.
raised a family of 5 in ‘god forbid’ rentals.
Was never an issue for us kids or them.

this housing lust is a new phenomenon cause folks see it as easy money – a cash cow if you will.

#160 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 10:26 am

#151 Dharma Bum on 03.09.21 at 9:13 am

I’m heading [to Red Deer] in April. Gotta find a nice private homestead where I can take target practice in peace.

————-

You’ll want a minimum of 40 acres for the belt-fed .50. Even then, you’ll have to be careful- if it gets too hot and starts cooking off on its own you’ll be taking out tractors 5 miles away.

#161 Howard on 03.09.21 at 10:48 am

#157 MT on 03.09.21 at 9:56 am
***How can a young family buy a house here anymore, or anybody who’s local?”***

Yup. I am a physician at a small hospital in rural NS, and this past year every single and solitary time I work at the ED, I meet someone who doesn’t have a doctor because they “just moved here from Ontario”. I had hoped that my little corner of the world would avoid the rising home prices, and I think it may have except that COVID and WFH or WFTO (my acronym, meaning “work from the oceanside”) threw high-octane gas on the phenomenon.

———————————–

Are the Ontarian newcomers mostly younger families or retirees cashing out? I’m guessing more the latter?

#162 Rossco on 03.09.21 at 10:56 am

Red Deer AB has 2 Walmart’s, 2 Canadian Tire’s, Home Depot, Lowe’s, every kind of grocery, cannabis, and restaurant franchise imaginable.
Mix of farming, oil & gas service companies and world size petro-chemical operation’s.
Situated between Calgary and Edmonton perfectly.
The only problem is Olymel hog slaughter plant gives off bad energies and bad vibes from all the killing of innocent animal’s and their fear of death.
Even the worker’s are terrified to work there because of Covid propaganda.
Red Deer need’s more people to attend the Saturday weekly lock-down protest’s at City Hall.
Red Deer need’s more vegetarian’s, you know, people who love all God’s creature’s and not just dog’s and cat’s.
Was a carnivore for 55 year’s until I changed my way’s and have enjoyed the last 7 year’s experimenting with mostly plant based food. It’s not easy but well worth the effort in many remarkable way’s.
Have no idea why I’m sharing this but whatever.

#163 thebarold on 03.09.21 at 10:56 am

Here’s another angle most haven’t considered. Internet access is key for these fleeing urbanites. When they realize internet is not as cheap (nor everything else they are used to — what no uber eats in this town?!?) what will they do? The different levels of government have promised to bring more connectivity (though taxpayer subsidy of course) to more rural areas. I agree with this in part – however my tax dollars should not be funding the extension of broadband to these new buyers — you knew there was no internet there but you still bought… now you balk at the cost to connect your off-the-grid shack to electricity and telecom? Just wait till you find out about septic system maintenance…

#164 DON on 03.09.21 at 11:03 am

#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.21 at 12:07 am
Today was the first day to register for shots in BC.
Was supposed to be for 80 and over.
1.4 million idiots jammed the lines.
Very few got through.
Guess who the blamed?
The Gubernment, of course.
Bloody, freaking stoopid sheep.

************

Yup…too many panic riden…jump the queue babies out there. There is no easy way to do something that has never been done before. Meanwhile there is one reported case of a person getting COVID after everyone in the care home was vaccinated.

#165 millmech on 03.09.21 at 11:12 am

#158 KLNR
I rent and love it, easy to make money in the markets, Gamestop just keeps paying out.

#141 Sail Away
I highly recommend
Option Volatility & Pricing by Sheldon Natenberg,
Understanding Options by Michael Sincere,
Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence McMillan
Then open a IBKR account and start to paper trade for a couple of months then jump in and really start to learn to be logical as emotional trading will destroy you in options.
Not financial advice!

#166 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:20 am

#86 Another Deckchair on 03.08.21 at 7:08 pm
@89 IHCTD9:

This one is old but interesting for more than the cars and fashions! He brings up lots of potential issues if “things shut down”

James Burke: Connections 1

https://youtu.be/XetplHcM7aQ
____

Wow, thanks for that link – I binged all 4 of those “Connections” vids last night! They were great and JB has a good sense of humour – made me not notice how old those vids were so much :). I really liked how he built his case one step at a time, and broke things down piece by piece. It’s true that the massive “tech trap” some live in is totally taken for granted and pretty much invisible.

Ep. 1 really drove home the difference between urban living and rural, as well as how Urban densification is completely and utterly reliant on loads of technology.

#167 Faron on 03.09.21 at 11:34 am

#153 kc on 03.09.21 at 9:26 am

122 Tyberius on 03.08.21 at 9:51 pm

Enquiring minds want to know.

No you don’t. That line is disingenuous bull shart that you toss out to make yourself sound “balanced” or “open minded”.

The reality is your biased mind wants confirmation to make the spotty facts that you’ve assembled for yourself as an armchair QB line up to make yourself feel better about a world you don’t understand but think is somehow aligned against you.

I won’t comment on PCR tests because:

1) That’s not my realm of expertise.

2) More importantly: Hospitals that were utterly rammed with people with COVID-like symptoms are all one needs to know. Excess death numbers that exceed deaths due to positive COVID test support it. Etc.

3) Don’t argue with kooks.

#168 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 11:43 am

Faron, I thought you said TSLA was done?!? Wow, I’m sure glad I took my own counsel again, whew.

#169 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:43 am

#89 Sail Away on 03.08.21 at 7:23 pm
#81 IHCTD9 on 03.08.21 at 6:43 pm

Re: Apocalypse

…eventually, the only way you’ll live grid down is the same way it’s always been done, via a few acres of arable land, and some room to move around….

———-

I know, I know. It sort of goes without saying, but:

…and a good 360 degree perimeter-scanning, armoured vantage point for the belt-fed .50 cal.
____

Heh, the city homeboys wouldn’t get past my neighbours,. A few units in the .2XX-.3XX range seems reasonable though for hunting.

I’ve always wanted one of those .50 Cal air-units you can get in the US, 1100+ fps and a heavy slug, probably pretty quiet, and easy melt/recast ammo. Seems like the perfect thing for SHTF.

#170 Faron on 03.09.21 at 11:45 am

#141 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 7:50 am

#120 david on 03.08.21 at 9:48 pm

Hrmmm. My word of caution is that, in order to not just bleed out premium, you have to make it a near full time job. Buying OTM calls has been free money the past year because stonks only go up. But that’s not the normal state of affairs.

To succeed you have to not just understand the underlying as you would to be long equities, but understand how all of the greeks respond to the market. Many of those responses are counterintuitive.

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 11:50 am

@#163
DON
“There is no easy way to do something that has never been done before. ”

++++

Apparently if you’re in Govt.

A year to prepare full of of emails, zoom conferences, power point presentations, phone calls, more emails, more Zoom conferences…… and the phone system is slammed……and they didnt expect that?

I’ve personally had to deal with municipal, provincial and federal levels of govt over the past year.

ALL OF THEM are slothridden exercises in futility with the “Covid work from home” excuse…..
Govt depts that take forever to get the simplest information or results achieved.
What used to take a week or two is now months.
Apparently the internet is slower when your working in your jammies from home… who knew.

This vaccination program is going to be a ….. Gong show.

#172 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:59 am

#140 Faron on 03.09.21 at 5:13 am

Funny you should blame the Liberal government for that when the richest in the US have also grown multiples wealthier under a, let’s just say, not liberal gov’t. But, you sound like you would blame liberals when your coffee gets cold too. So… not surprising.
___

Ah! Well done. Irrelevant points framed in a Tu quoque argument.

Glad to see you’re expanding beyond your usual Strawman stuff.

#173 Zen Investor on 03.09.21 at 12:36 pm

Kato #147. You’re not likely as dumb as you say, maybe just a tad lazy. Next time you’ve got time for a hockey night booze up, read a book on personal finance. If CBC runs a doc on how Trudeau styles his hair, read a book on how to understand a balance sheet instead.

As far as buying good companies is concerned, every company discloses it’s progress, yeah sure, boring as paste, but profitable as hell, if you take the time to follow along.

Good luck.

#174 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 11:50 am
@#163
DON
“There is no easy way to do something that has never been done before. ”

++++

Apparently if you’re in Govt.

A year to prepare full of of emails, zoom conferences, power point presentations, phone calls, more emails, more Zoom conferences…… and the phone system is slammed……and they didnt expect that?

I’ve personally had to deal with municipal, provincial and federal levels of govt over the past year.

ALL OF THEM are slothridden exercises in futility with the “Covid work from home” excuse…..
Govt depts that take forever to get the simplest information or results achieved.
What used to take a week or two is now months.
Apparently the internet is slower when your working in your jammies from home… who knew.

This vaccination program is going to be a ….. Gong show.

***********

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

I understand patience is wearing thin but complaining doesn’t help. Customer service has been a causalty in both the private and publuc sectors.

People should be mad at those asshats trying to jump the queue when they rightfully know they ate not in the required aga group.

Pity the medical staff that have to give out millions of shots. And working from home is not the trigger to laziness and a decline in productivity that lies solely with the individual. Working from hone…working in a office space or working in the forest d
oes not make me any less productive. Yes meetings are a waste of time in most cases and should be curbed especially at the higher levels.

In setting up a program they also have to consider privacy.

#175 Faron on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

#167 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 11:43 am

Faron, I thought you said TSLA was done?!? Wow, I’m sure glad I took my own counsel again, whew.

Nope, I don’t think I said that. Too lazy to go look at the record though. I do recall saying that making comments about TSLA marked the bottom. Bit early on that, hope you didn’t lose money shorting it :-)

#171 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:59 am

Irrelevant points

Can you remind me how it’s irrelevant that a process you blame on Canada’s liberal gov’t has identical counterparts throughout the world under all political stripes? Drain your swamp bru. Although, I do love worthless counters that allow me to repeat an argument that highlights how absurd your “logic” is. So, thx and happy Tuesday.

#176 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 12:38 pm

Millmech: thanks for the book suggestions and the paper trade. The books are on the list. My timeline is a few years out, so good runway to paper trade and learn more.

Faron: yes, I agree on the fulltime attention to options trading. This will be after engineering work. A few years out.

#177 Faron on 03.09.21 at 12:40 pm

#171 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:59 am

Oh, wait, I see it now. Trudeau was meant to save your tactical black ridin’ arse from all this inequality. Got it. Sorry for my confusion.

#178 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 12:46 pm

#162 thebarold on 03.09.21 at 10:56 am
Here’s another angle most haven’t considered. Internet access is key for these fleeing urbanites. When they realize internet is not as cheap (nor everything else they are used to — what no uber eats in this town?!?) what will they do? The different levels of government have promised to bring more connectivity (though taxpayer subsidy of course) to more rural areas. I agree with this in part – however my tax dollars should not be funding the extension of broadband to these new buyers — you knew there was no internet there but you still bought… now you balk at the cost to connect your off-the-grid shack to electricity and telecom? Just wait till you find out about septic system maintenance…
____

I believe here in Ontario, all taxpayers have been subsidizing Xplornet for years already – and not getting much for their money I might add.

It’ll be interesting to see how Starlink plays out. I know one dude who got the beta deal, and is very happy even at 129.99/mo. Several more dudes are on the list – none seem to care about the cost (near double). If everyone is getting 50-100 meg speeds consistently through SL, then I’d expect just about all those rural wireless ISP’s could be toast in short order.

#179 Faron on 03.09.21 at 12:53 pm

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 11:50 am

@#163
DON
“There is no easy way to do something that has never been done before. ”

and the phone system is slammed……and they didnt expect that?

I agree that the slow vaxxxx roll out in Canada is nothing to be proud of. More than half of my US family has had one if not two doses.

But, if the Gov’t had hired enough call centre workers to give smooth service, you would be griping about an expense overrun when it inevitably leaked that “BC Gov’t spends millions while COVID schedulers sit idle.”

#180 SoggyShorts on 03.09.21 at 12:59 pm

#161 Rossco on 03.09.21 at 10:56 am

Red Deer need’s more people to attend the Saturday weekly lock-down protest’s at City Hall.

********************
Wait… you want the lockdowns to end but you’re promoting gathering in person to protest them?
Lemme guess, with no masks with no distancing?

#181 millmech on 03.09.21 at 1:14 pm

#175 Sail Away
For position sizing read up on the Kelly Criterion.
Do not be afraid of infinite loss like some people are posting here, that only happens when you play “naked”.

#182 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 1:20 pm

#77 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.08.21 at 6:23 pm
Driving around a bunch today.

Started thinking while listening to the news. The commentators were reflecting on the skyrocketing home prices and obvious rise in consumer prices.

I always had a sense that I could do okay for myself when I was younger and starting out. First home in KW was purchased in 2001 for $119k. And that was for a 4 bed semi in a 1970s sub division. I had good employment prospects and between my better half and I we were able to put money away and not accumulate any debt. We lived and continue to live responsibly and within our means. We felt like we could be successful.
___

I know I could build a good quality of life here in Ontario still, but the lifestyle I’d end up with is not all that popular these days with youth.

What they do want is becoming tougher and tougher to latch on to – because everyone else wants the same thing.

#183 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:24 pm

#173 DON on 03.09.21 at 12:37 pm

They did not know about the vaccine a year ago. Intially they thought it was years out, then came the rush for vaccines. So about 4 months to plan a task that has never been done before on this scale.

————

You mean a totally different situation than all the other countries who are vaccinating quickly and efficiently?

Should probably ask the US how to do it.

#184 millmech on 03.09.21 at 1:25 pm

#175 Sail Away
One last post.
To get an understanding of the psychology of trading I recommend reading ” The Human Animal” by Desmond Morris, or watch it on Youtube. You are competing against other people and it is best to learn how they behave and capitalize on it.

#185 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 1:43 pm

#176 Faron on 03.09.21 at 12:40 pm
#171 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:59 am

Oh, wait, I see it now. Trudeau was meant to save your tactical black ridin’ arse from all this inequality. Got it. Sorry for my confusion.
___

My goodness, #171 really got under your skin eh homie?

#186 mike from mtl on 03.09.21 at 1:51 pm

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.21 at 11:50 am

This vaccination program is going to be a ….. Gong show.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Can’t speak from how nationally the roll out is, but us habitual screw ups in QC have our ass in gear. I personally know two 70+ already got their first dose was not a big hassle. Within a week or so we should be down to the 65+ crowd and tasking Pharmacies.

#187 Sail Away on 03.09.21 at 1:59 pm

#183 millmech on 03.09.21 at 1:25 pm
#175 Sail Away

One last post.
To get an understanding of the psychology of trading I recommend reading ” The Human Animal” by Desmond Morris, or watch it on Youtube. You are competing against other people and it is best to learn how they behave and capitalize on it.

————–

Thanks M. I’ve taken a few courses on covered call writing and am learning the ins and outs of that side at the moment. May or may not proceed beyond that, but we’ll see where the path leads… cautiously.

#188 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 2:27 pm

Trudeau’s Canada where he makes the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/10/13/rich-get-richer-poor-poorer-report-says-pandemic-intensified-economic-disparities.html

“…with working-class Canadians going deeper into debt while those at the top prosper.”

“…amplifying economic disparities that existed pre-pandemic and widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.”

“…putting a spotlight on inequalities between the well-off and those dealing with job losses, debt, eviction and food insecurity.”

All long standing, structural inequalities and injustices – none of which Trudeau has done a single thing about.

In fact, the Trudeau Liberals have done the opposite. Together with the BoC, Trudeau has done more to widen economic disparity than any other PM in Canadian history.

After years of Liberal promises on the social justice front, most of the Liberal Billions just went straight into the pockets of wealthy Canadians – as per usual.

It is very hard to dodge the fact now – after 6 years, that Trudeau apparently heads a very proud troop of autofellatious champagne-Liberal douchebags.

#189 KLNR on 03.09.21 at 6:09 pm

@#185 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 1:43 pm
#176 Faron on 03.09.21 at 12:40 pm
#171 IHCTD9 on 03.09.21 at 11:59 am

Oh, wait, I see it now. Trudeau was meant to save your tactical black ridin’ arse from all this inequality. Got it. Sorry for my confusion.
___

My goodness, #171 really got under your skin eh homie?

you are an exceptionally adept troll

#190 Tyberius on 03.09.21 at 7:57 pm

#154 kc on 03.09.21 at 9:26 am

122 Tyberius on 03.08.21 at 9:51 pm

As the PCR test is so problematic, why is it that Governments have been imposing far-reaching policies (such as lockdowns), based on numbers derived by it?

Enquiring minds want to know.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Where have you been for the past year?

I was kind of making your point, but specifically asked Mr. Faron for ‘answers’, as he plays the polymath here.

His answer BTW, was exactly what one would expect from a ‘well-schooled’ person.

The decision of the Supreme Court of Portugal, to not allow PCR as evidence, is illustrative of the fraud perpetrated via PCR. In my opinion, of course.

#191 kc on 03.09.21 at 10:24 pm

#190 Tyberius on 03.09.21 at 7:57 pm

sorry i guess i missed your sarcasm…..

I am so sick of this covid crap, I don’t wear masks anymore and don’t give a flying F what others think …

cheers