What happened?

Sigh*.

Well, sometimes you just blow it. This may be one of them. And Evan is truly sorry about it. Almost.

Did you see that latest? The average property price in Toronto is just breaking the $1 million level. Detached homes are at the $1.68 million mark. As predicted here, condos have rushed back with an 85% sales surge and price bump. And, gasp, the burbs are on fire. The average in big-box Peel is just over a mill and in Halton, where the cows come from, it’s $1.2 million. Ditto in York.

Even Calgary’s weird. Feb sales soared 54%. It’s the best since 2014 when everyone was humming that dipstick song by Pharrell Williams.

Nationally house prices are up 25% year/year. In some places (like Lunenburg), 40%. In others (like Brampton) some hoods are ahead 70%. In Oshawa, it’s 35%. The flippers are back. In Victoria condo sales hiked 66% last month compared with 2020. In Toronto inventory of detached homes and most condos is down to a little more than two weeks. It used to be four months.

   So recall that prediction CMHC’s boss, Evan Siddall, made a few months ago? The agency said it expected house prices could decline by up to 18% because of the virus, double-digit unemployment, a plop in immigration, the mortgage deferral cliff and crumbling confidence. But as it turned out, houses now cost a helluva lot more.

416 realtor John Pasalis (who hates me), just sent out this told-ya-so Tweet: “Imagine saving for years so you can have a $70K down payment to buy a home in Durham. Then in a single year the avg home price there jumps from $685K last year to $942K today 38% – $257K in 1 year. And our government couldn’t care less. Young buyers have a right to be furious!” (Be angry at realtors who merrily conduct blind auctions and treat buyers like curs? Never!)

So what went wrong? How did Siddall – normally a smart, perceptive dude – blow it so epicly?

“Our recent work highlights compositional/mix changes, shifting preferences, heightened savings rates, decline in immigration and reverse urbanization as unforeseen developments that help explain our forecast errors,” he says. And he adds this in his defence:

“I don’t recall anyone predicting accurately what actually transpired. Recall that 25% of our workforce was on income support, we had activated $150B of liquidity for lenders, mortgages were being deferred in huge #s and house prices were already inflated. Our publication noted reservations and caveats, and described the -18% case as a highly unlikely worst case, which critics focused on. No one foresaw the extent of the discriminatory impact the virus would have on lower paid workers/renters.”

But the housing czar warns we’re not out of the woods yet. Risks include, “economic adjustments, increased debt, the diversion of economically valuable investment $ into housing, increasing inequality and increased GHG emissions post-pandemic with cities less populated.”

Meanwhile two banks have now come forward with warnings about mortgage rates. CIBC’s chief economic Benny Tal says homeowners, “are simply not ready” for the increases that are likely coming, which could have an “adverse impact” on real estate. And BMO states, “It looks pretty safe to say that five-year fixed rates will soon start grinding back up… Unless there’s another significant shock to the economy coming, we could be looking at a last chance to lock in these rates for some time.”

Yup. Like forever.

Okay, so Siddall admits failure. Like almost everybody who doesn’t think with their pants, he looked at widespread unemployment, the worst recession in decades, lockdowns crippling airlines, retailers and tourist economies, a shrinking GDP, travel restrictions and over twenty thousand dead virus victims in ten months. After all, close to a million people decided to stop paying their mortgages, the borders were closed to newcomers and the government had to go $380 billion in hock to bail society out. How could that possibly end well?

Well, here’s the missing piece.

Turns out the greatest misery was saved for people who could least weather it – those making less money, in lower-paying jobs, in sectors vulnerable to disruption, with little security and fewer assets to fall back on. They got whacked. Many are renters – which helped explained a condo glut and falling lease rates.

The rest of us – like most on this pathetic yet erudite blog – have had a different Covid experience. About five million ended up in the WFH economy, with stable jobs, continued income and yet a drastic drop in household costs. Net worth went up, especially as housing become an object of desire.

Being relegated to home, people craved – and bought – more space. Urbanites afraid of elevator germs moved out into suburban detacheds. Those who had thought about buying a first home took the plunge as mortgage rates dropped to 1.5% or below. Finally they qualified for enough debt. So during the pandemic we borrowed $118 billion more, went into panic-buying mode, jacked real estate to a new unaffordable level and along the way crushed Mr. Siddall.

And it continues. One legacy of the slimy little pathogen will have been to make once-affordable towns and cities into de facto burbs of the big smoke, complete with irritating Millennials walking around in plaid and tats. Like Owen Sound. That Ontario backwater just launched a campaign claiming to be the ‘Work From Home Capital of Canada’. If you visit its web site, you get free pajamas.

And that says it all.

168 comments ↓

#1 Bob on 03.02.21 at 2:45 pm

So what ever happened with that “deferral cliff” anyway? Did it turn out that pretty much everybody who asked for a deferral really could pay but simply chose not to?

#2 Leftover on 03.02.21 at 2:47 pm

The important part of Siddall’s lament is, “diversion of economically valuable investment $ into housing”.

Housing is to Canada what oil is (was) to Alberta – a lazy, low value-added drain on productivity and growth, not to mention diversification, as if that mattered.

Siddall was right a year ago, he just got the timing wrong.

#3 CDUNLOP on 03.02.21 at 2:47 pm

So, what now? Is it all going to collapse into the next major depression. Does my healthy investment account disappear overnight? Should I be putting money in my mattress?

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 2:50 pm

Hate to say it but the WFH are fully entrenched .
I had to drive into downtown Vancouver last Friday.
Drove down Magill St , heading west past the PNE.
Spotted a 20 something kid at 10am in the morning on a workday .
He was walking down the sidewalk wearing a plaid housecoat, hanging open, boxer shorts and dirty T-shirt while drinking a coffee and texting…… No dog or kid in sight.
Just walking .

#5 TurnerNation on 03.02.21 at 2:52 pm

Economic Shutdowns did this: Canadian economy contracted 5.4 per cent in 2020, worst year on record (www.msn.com)

– As I noted Mid last year; we are in WW3 now and wars are fought over LAND. Once again this is about keeping us locked down in the UN Smart Cities and kicking us off the land.
Maybe 10 years ago a map of this supposed plan was floating around the ‘Net, showing all the areas in USA to be made off limits to people. So here it is the news is out, mainstream:

https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/feb/26/house-votes-to-set-aside-3-million-western-acres-i/
The House voted Friday to cordon off nearly three million acres of Western land in the name of environmental protection, overriding Republicans who called it a “massive land grab” that will kill jobs, increase wildfire danger and reduce access to public lands.
The bill dovetails with President Biden’s so-called 30×30 pledge aimed at conserving 30% of U.S. land—an area twice the size of Texas—and 30% of coastal seas by 2030.
…………
Our new UN Smart City shoeboxes are here:

https://storeys.com/next-phase-toronto-modular-housing-initiative-revealed/
The City of Toronto has revealed the two new locations that will serve as the second phase of its modular housing initiative. The sites, located in Willowdale and East York, will create approximately 128 modular homes — 64 at each of the City-owned sites.

……

For the Doomers:

https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/02/despite-covid-19-alberta-icu-admissions-dropped-in-2020/
Despite COVID-19, Alberta ICU admissions dropped in 2020
In fact, ICU admissions dropped in every ICU across the entire province, except two which saw slight increases.
Published 2 days ago on February 27, 202
Admissions into Alberta’s intensive care units (ICUs) actually dropped last year, says an internal Alberta Health Services memo obtained by the Western Standard.

#6 Jimmy Zhao on 03.02.21 at 2:53 pm

Sad for me, The Free Pajamas are sold out :-(

When I go skiing at the Vancouver North Shore mountains, I see lots of cars/truck with company logos on them. I wonder if the people are claiming use of company vehicles as a ‘taxable benefit’ on their income tax return ?

#7 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.02.21 at 2:56 pm

It is nice to see a senior leader who admits they were wrong with just little bit of face saving spin,a rare happening indeed.
Morale of the story: with a few rare exceptions anybody who has bet against housing in Canada has been wrong,FOMO pays and wins.
A reset might happen,last one I remember was 2008/2009 and took a few years to recover but recover it did and those that did not sell were made whole and then some ,more then quadrupled their down-payment.
I will agree that some overextended people will sell when rates go higher and they must move back into the city to actually do real work not this WFH productivity and career killer.
I strongly suspect it will not be quite that big of a deal as it is being promoted,I see an exodus of people deciding to retire early into the peace of the suburbs and returning the city cores to the working crowd so a swap will happen ,some will simply hang on to the out in the bunnies property as a weekend home and share condo with others …creative solutions will be found,this is not the US where you can mail the keys in and declare bankruptcy.
And if a year or three from now I am proven wrong I will be the first one to say so and do a “mea culpa” .

#8 Love_The_Cottage on 03.02.21 at 3:03 pm

Has anyone seen an analysis of housing starts over the past 20 – 30 years versus populate growth in Canada? Perhaps this is another factor on the upward pressure on housing?

#9 Comments! on 03.02.21 at 3:06 pm

Nothing burgers since 2009

Increased interest rates
Stress test
Deferral cliff
Reduction of amortization periods
Boomers and seniors all selling at once to cash in
100,000 + condos coming with not enough buyers
Toothless foreign buyer measures
Black swan events like Covid crashing the market
Buyers over-extended and pooched
CHMC BS measures and limitations
Bond market “normailizing” interest rates

Did I miss any?

#10 Earlybird on 03.02.21 at 3:10 pm

#1 Bob
That is exactly where mortgage deferral and refinance at criminally low rates money went…toys and renovations!! Tons of folks did this and is showing up as “pre-loaded stimulus.” Another bump in net worth for homeowners….amortized for peanuts over a long durations. Renters really got a raw deal comparatively…no wonder everyone wants to own!
I still repeat everyday to myself Rent proudly…invest fiercely…

#11 Dogman01 on 03.02.21 at 3:12 pm

“Down here it’s just winners and losers and don’t get caught on the wrong side of that line”

In Canada it is Homeowners on one side the young and poor on the other, this is how the destruction of the Middle Class, destruction of upward mobility and destruction of opportunity occur.
The implications for society will be epic.

The youth need to forget Climate Change, Identity politics, all distractions. This is the defining societal shift of their time, becoming a permanent precariat underclass due to shelter costs in this cold cold place.

#12 Linda on 03.02.21 at 3:13 pm

Post pandemic the specter of increased GHG emissions looms. Well, maybe. This presumes a complete return to prior patterns, with X number of people rushing on a daily basis to the downtown core. Yes, this could well occur. However there is at least the possibility that WFH will indeed become much more widespread, with potentially no increase in GHG emissions due to folks just staying put at home.

#13 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 3:16 pm

The Sail Away household in this lucrative period of unrest acquired the following non-consumable items:

-Two pieces of schlocky tourist art
-A natural gas fireplace installation
-One porcelain halibut-shaped ginger grater
-One custom sheepskin-lined saddle leather shotgun case
-One Munsterlander puppy
-One cast iron dutch oven
-One piece of South Dakota property where valuations are non-hallucinogenic

Also, we shed:

-One piece of Vancouver property when valuations were hallucinogenic
-One failing ceramic-lined crock pot
-One broken mixing bowl
-Two split spatulas

That’s about it. Close to parity. Pretty uneventful year. Net worth changed by +18%.

#14 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 3:19 pm

…meanwhile

The Cdn economy in 2020 had its LARGEST single drop since they started recording GDP in 1961:

-5.4%

To put it $ terms, GDP in Dec 2020 was:

$1.936 trillion

GDP in Apr, May 2018:

$1.933 trillion, $1.944 trillion.

Ya, that’s so 2.58 years ago.

Go here, select Reference Period and input April 2018 from the drop down boxes for “From:”:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401

The MSM will say 4Q 2020 GDP up 2.3%. From the above that’s like:

polishing the portholes on a sinking ship.

——————-

The economy is WEAK like -2.58 years weak. It will not take much more to collapse it. What is happening now is speculation and people fleeing the bug infested cities juicing RE and Finance.

This is temporary.

2.58 years of economic growth erased in 2 quarters of 2020 is not temporary. It will take years and years to recover. Gov’s Canada larders are empty shoving money down the uncomplaining throats of Cdns. Big 5 Banks will only print money for mortgages considered safe. Not much else to say other than:

Enjoy the lull for now.

#15 Peter McLean on 03.02.21 at 3:20 pm

Wait… So should I keep buying weed stocks?

#16 Rook on 03.02.21 at 3:27 pm

I’m not reading any sound conclusions other than, ‘interest rates are going up, so lock in.’

But if a global pandemic of Biblical proportions (or so you’d think watching the teevee) didn’t pop the housing bubble, I put low odds on a silly little thing like interest rates being able to do it.

I’m starting to wonder if that BMO guy was right: Canadians really just DO want to pay more for housing, and that’s that, economy be damned.

#17 ChooChoo Choose Choom on 03.02.21 at 3:27 pm

@ #15 Peter McLean
“ Wait… So should I keep buying weed stocks?”

Absolutely! Might I suggest Choom? Huge buzz. Huge.
It’s a steal right now
You’ll be super rich one day

#18 Puzni on 03.02.21 at 3:28 pm

Wages don’t grow as quickly as housing has grown. At some point a lot of people will be priced out forever. Few years ago I remember adds on TV from a local credit union in BC telling millennials not to give up and stay in BC. I wonder if there will be an exodus of people into places where housing is cheap and quality of life is better. I also think a lot of boomers will be helping their kids out with starter places.

#19 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 3:39 pm

…meanwhile

VARIANT World

Now, even vax fan boy (me) is getting a little worried, just a little.

Mar 1 cumulative variant cases = 1,428
Feb 21 cumulative variant cases = 800

79% increase in 9 days.

Total new cases Mar 1 = 2564.
Mar 1 new variant cases = 145.

Variants 6% of total cases (was 1% on Feb 27).

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-variants-of-the-novel-coronavirus-in-canada-1.5296141

———————

Variants still low vs. total cases. N’est panicker pas…for now.

Though at the rate of variants increase, how long can that last?

I worry (a little bit for now) since variants seem to spread like a wildfire as they did in the UK, by Apr 4 best case 2 dose vax’d is 3.6M Beavers and all that will result in further, prolonged lockdowns (again) slowing the pace of vaccination and continuing to kill off/suppress the Cdn economy.

-FWIW

#20 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 3:40 pm

No wave of foreclosures in the USA according to this:

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/there-probably-wont-be-a-post-covid-wave-of-foreclosures-heres-why-51614717019?mod=mw_latestnews

#21 Captain Uppa on 03.02.21 at 3:42 pm

RE will continue to explode.

Demand is simply too high and supply is not there yet. I think this goes another 2-3 years before any type of pull back.

So … uppa, Uppa. UPPA!!!!

#22 Keith on 03.02.21 at 3:43 pm

@#13 Sail Away

One stainless steel dutch oven?
Look out for crowdie

#23 Old Ron on 03.02.21 at 3:43 pm

Evan did not expect unprecedented Central Bank intervention, to suppress interests rates below the rate of inflation, coupled with equally unprecedented levels of direct Government stimulus and support.
The Feds lead by Justin saved the housing market, and a lot of Canadians as well.

As to what happens next in housing? How long can the B of C keep the pedal to the metal. it’s their market now.

#24 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 3:46 pm

This guy thought he had it all figured out until the tax man came calling:

https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/news/local-news/convicted-west-vancouver-tax-evader-hit-with-29-month-sentence-645k-fine-1.24287688

#25 Munger Man on 03.02.21 at 3:47 pm

Well, it looks like the people who waited like myself in Toronto are out of luck to buy a house, prices will never come down, no wonder people are speculating on bitcoin and spac’s, they already have determined a house is out of touch. I kick myself for not buying, can never make back what I lost on potential home equity what I would have made over the last 7 years. No use to buy etf’s then, have to take bigger risks in the market, a lot of people will have this similar view. Keep up the good work

#26 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 3:50 pm

All shits and giggles until people can’t make their payments. Who cares how fast these things are flying off the shelves? – they still have to be paid for every month. If people don’t have jobs or income they will all end up for sale again soon. Smart people stand back and wait for everyone to overpay and go broke and then Vuch later!

#27 Millennial 1%er on 03.02.21 at 3:51 pm

Wow! When the bank prints money – uhhhh I mean does quantitative easing (TM) – assets increase in value? Who knew?!

#28 Honest Realtor on 03.02.21 at 3:52 pm

I feel privilege to have been part of my profession for over a quarter century.

My teams have helped hundreds of people gain financial security that they never could have gotten investing in the dotcom bust or GFC. These improving market conditions are yet another sign of the importance of investing in your home and in property.

No client of mine who has wisely bought and held property has lost out in the last thirty years.

Just in the last week, I have received four emails from past clients, telling me how grateful they were for my help getting them into the property market.

I greatly respect the role of our health care providers in these difficult times – they are Number One in my books.

But when it comes to helping Canadians preserve and grow better lives, Realtors are definitely Number Two.

#29 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 3:53 pm

#15 Peter McLean

“Wait… So should I keep buying weed stocks?”

——————

Cannabis Sector, Apr to Dec 2020, $ (x 1,000,000):

12,411 13,556 14,838 13,481 13,545 14,084 15,758 16,804 17,617

Plot it and you will see even it dipped mid-2020 thanks to Covid – you would have expected the opposite (Covid anxiety elixir).

Starting to recover though (+4.84% Nov to Dec 2020).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401

#30 Dave on 03.02.21 at 3:53 pm

We know Trudeau won’t crack down on money laundering but he could at least enforce larger down payments and shorter amortization periods. That would change prices overnight.

#31 paul on 03.02.21 at 3:53 pm

Who is financing these properties? They can not be appraising, list a house at a market price $800,000 the buyers show up sells for a million 15% down they are under water before they move in!

#32 Alberta Ed on 03.02.21 at 4:00 pm

This will not end well.

#33 Faron on 03.02.21 at 4:00 pm

#14 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 3:19 pm

DV: ermahgerd, GDP down, lost production 4ever!

The Great Pantsplosion: Hold my beer.

#34 Billy Buoy on 03.02.21 at 4:07 pm

For the 9189402-1093o40o2p11[ time:

INTEREST RATES CANNOT RAISE over 2% or everything goes BUST and with NO TOOLS left in the toolbox,

THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE but YYC.

And every Central bank worldwide knows it.

Prepare for a lovely depression sooner than you think.

#35 Ottawan on 03.02.21 at 4:10 pm

It’s a fraud; the jammies are sold out,,

#36 Sheesh on 03.02.21 at 4:10 pm

#91 Job#1 on 03.02.21 at 11:06 am
#87 Sheesh

Your own words:

“What it can’t tell us is whether the person with a positive test is currently infectious…”

Inescapable conclusion: case numbers, based solely on positive PCR result, without clinical assessment of symptoms and history, used to determine public health policy and projections, are unreliable.
……
Well, that’s your inescapable conclusion based on distorted logic, and sciencey sounding non-science.

For starters, public health policy is not based solely on case numbers, the hospitalization rate and evidence of community spread play a big part as well.

I’ll leave it to the real experts to inform the policy making decisions, not the ‘experts’ with an ax to grind whose only (non)solution is to let ‘er rip. Not sure how you reconcile the many, many more dead people in that scenario with doing no harm.

#37 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 4:21 pm

#25 Faron

…speaking of beer:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/World-Beer-Index-2021-Average-Price-of-a-Beer-FullWidth.html

——————

Why I will not drink beer in Italia but will when in España. Also tweeted the above. Considered by many my most significant Tweet this year. Tells you where the mood is in Canada.

It will take some time for the Cdn economy to recover, years. %’s are fine but when you look at $, depressing to say the least.

I hate RE but it’s the only game in town at present. Hope it gets the Cdn economy thru the pandemic and Covid delenda est thanks to vax’ng.

Then the rebuilding commences but with little help from Gov’s Canada, their larders are empty unless they accept a lower dollar and rampant inflation, the latter I am all for since it seems to boost The Markets.

Looks like another see-saw day in The Markets as I type. Though news of variants in the US and cases creeping back up has surged the value of my US Funary stock already 1.1% today.

You know, The Market foresees more death in the US, tell me it will not be so.

#38 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 4:22 pm

Love these prices in the GTA. Probably ~80-85K median household incomes, and now 1.7 million for a detached LOL! Lock in for 5 at 1.8 and you’re looking at a 7K monthly for a what-ev house.

They’ll probably push it over 2 Mil this year. A decade or so more of this, and only the stupid, wealthy, newly arrived, and the “heirs in waiting” for old stock fortunes, will remain. It would be good to keep them all in one spot for when this balloon pops.

#39 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:23 pm

#28 Honest Realtor

No one is buying that REALTOR RUBBISH any more. Everyone knows home moaners have to pay for A LOT OF STUFF DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY ANNUALLY THAT GOES ALONG WITH OWNERSHIP WHILE RENTING DOES NOT. SO BE HONEST!

#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.21 at 4:26 pm

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 2:50 pm
Hate to say it but the WFH are fully entrenched .
I had to drive into downtown Vancouver last Friday.
Drove down Magill St , heading west past the PNE.
Spotted a 20 something kid at 10am in the morning on a workday .
He was walking down the sidewalk wearing a plaid housecoat, hanging open, boxer shorts and dirty T-shirt while drinking a coffee and texting…… No dog or kid in sight.
Just walking .
—————
That’s proof that WFH is here to stay.
I lived in a Downtown highrise, and everyday at 7:00, I went out to the newspaper box in my pyjamas.
Just a few bums on the street.
At 8:30, I walked to work in my jeans.
You and your buddy IHTC gotta stop extrapolating from personal experience.
It’s not statistically significant.

#41 One and Done on 03.02.21 at 4:32 pm

#23 Old Ron on 03.02.21 at 3:43 pm
Evan did not expect unprecedented Central Bank intervention, to suppress interests rates below the rate of inflation, coupled with equally unprecedented levels of direct Government stimulus and support.
The Feds lead by Justin saved the housing market, and a lot of Canadians as well.

As to what happens next in housing? How long can the B of C keep the pedal to the metal. it’s their market now.

———-

This is the same ad naseum argument for betting against the housing market for the last 12 years – ‘who could have seen it coming with government intervention and emergency low rates’

With a solid history of government intervention to keep the housing market strong, EVERYONE should have seen it coming – and many new buyers did – hence the strongest market ever.

And how long can the BoC keep the market intact? Just ask yourself how many years we have had ’emergency low interest rates.’ Question answered.

Fool me once, shame on you….fool me twice, shame on me…

Sideliners and renters and dooms day prophecies are in the last half of this famous quote.

#42 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 4:33 pm

#36 Sheesh on 03.02.21 at 4:10 pm

I’ll leave it to the real experts to inform the policy making decisions, not the ‘experts’ with an ax to grind whose only (non)solution is to let ‘er rip. Not sure how you reconcile the many, many more dead people in that scenario with doing no harm.
*******************************************
From Danielle Smith Newsletter Feb. 28, 2021

“Look at the following data from Worldometers and CTV’s Covid Tracker:
Extreme Lockdowns:
New York 2,453 deaths/million
California 1,316
Quebec 1,225
—————————-
Minimal Restrictions:
South Dakota 2,132 deaths/million
Florida 1,431
Sweden 1,265

The only thing you can conclude from these numbers is that lockdowns had no apparent effect on the death rate from COVID-19 in any jurisdiction, regardless of whether they locked down or not.”

#43 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:42 pm

When home prices are falling smart people stand back and wait until they hit the bottom sometime into the future Never pay more than you can afford to lose There will always be homes for sale next week, next month next year. Don’t get sucked into paying higher prices. RENT & SAVE

#44 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:43 pm

Market already starting to slide and spring is only starting!

Zealty [email protected]

In the City of Vancouver, 309 homes currently for sale have had their asking price lowered since they were first listed; 80 prices have been increased.

#45 Bloff Witzer You're in the sitatation cloakroom on 03.02.21 at 4:45 pm

So at the current low rates a mortgage of 1,000,000 would cost you a little over $4,000 a month plus insurance, utilities, taxes and maintenance. The median income is what again? Does it matter when so many are making $40,000 a year or less? For about twenty years I’ve thought disaster must be just around the corner, surely now it must be. That mortgage will cost $720 or so a month more if rates go to 3%. We don’t have enough people making that kind of income for this to be sustainable. What about all the people who haven’t paid rent but can’t be evicted, you have to assume at least some percentage of them couldn’t pay but it will all come due at some point. What then? How’s that line go, if this ain’t a mess it’ll do ’till the mess gets here.

#46 Bill on 03.02.21 at 4:45 pm

Ah, so now everyone is a financial genius; figures.

Th only trouble with that is that nobody, let alone Evan Siddall, could have seen how this has played out…for now, that is.

More downside to come; no one gets out of a massive recession by pressing the “Easy” button.

#47 Pete on 03.02.21 at 4:47 pm

Meh. Take a look at housesigma. Last 2 days are showning a huge increase in listings. The next week or two will tell us what the rest of 2021 will look like. That is, return to sanity or the rise of over-extended homeowners jumping out of 1st floor windiws. But wait! T2 will save the day by selling a pipeline and investing in bitcoin.

#48 Stone on 03.02.21 at 4:47 pm

So I was thinking. As mortgage rates start to inch higher, homeowners equity (if there is any) will become trapped as no one will want to pay top dollar for those cardboard shacks. When term renewal comes up, their mortgage payments will increase strangling their disposable income. Without that disposable income to spend on travel and other discretionary stuff, less people will travel preferring to staycation. Cause staycations are vacations? Huh? When mortgage rates go up, it’s going to be epic!

At that point, travelling for the non-indebted could be really fantastic. Less crowds. Less hoards of selfie takers getting in the way. This could end very well. For me, that is. For the indebted, not so much.

B&D having another good day today. 6.50% YTD. Thanks for the dividend today ZPR.

Rub tummy!

#49 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:48 pm

WHY LIVE IN A CONCRETE JUNGLE WHEN YOU DON’T HAVE TO?
https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/02/24/purolator-expanding-rural-facilities-amid-demand-from-remote-workers.html?li_source=LI

#50 Bloff Witzer You're in the sitatation cloakroom on 03.02.21 at 4:49 pm

“The only thing you can conclude from these numbers is that lockdowns had no apparent effect on the death rate from COVID-19 in any jurisdiction, regardless of whether they locked down or not.”

Yeah, okay because New York City and Rapid City are just the same. Equal population density, they are not. This is just foolish.

#51 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 4:50 pm

#28 Honest Realtor

placing realtors in the #2 spot behind healthcare workers? you are joking, right ?

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 5:00 pm

@#40 Pandering Ponzie

“At 8:30, I walked to work in my jeans.”

You and your buddy IHTC gotta stop extrapolating from personal experience.
It’s not statistically significant.

++++

You were a male prostitute?

#53 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 5:04 pm

HERE ARE THE REAL REASONS WHY CANADA IS SO SCREWED UP. POOR POLICY AND LACK OF DIRECTIONS FROM THE LEADERSHIP OF THE COUNTRY. SHEESH!
https://liberal.ca/our-platform/drug-use-and-addiction/

#54 Guelph Guru on 03.02.21 at 5:06 pm

Every day, I hear new explanations of why it is ok to move 1.5 hours away from your work place. The usual story is that, a new era has begun where WFH is the new norm. It’s the next industrial or whatever revolution.
The problem is if you can do your job sitting 1.5 hours away, the same can be done by someone in Philipines or China or India. They have the same level of technology these days. In may cases better than us.
So I pray everyday, that I should not be able to WFH.

#55 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 5:08 pm

Tijuana cardboard shelters have more character than some Vancouver multi million dollar dumps. Why would anyone bet their life savings of a old junk pile falling down around them?
ARE THEY ALL ON DRUGS IN VANCOUVER?

#56 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 5:14 pm

#50 Bloff Witzer You’re in the sitatation cloakroom on 03.02.21 at 4:49 pm
“The only thing you can conclude from these numbers is that lockdowns had no apparent effect on the death rate from COVID-19 in any jurisdiction, regardless of whether they locked down or not.”

Yeah, okay because New York City and Rapid City are just the same. Equal population density, they are not. This is just foolish
**********************************

Extreme Lockdowns:
New York 2,453 deaths/million
California 1,316
Quebec 1,225
—————————-
Minimal Restrictions:
South Dakota 2,132 deaths/million
Florida 1,431
Sweden 1,265

NY density 419 people/sq mi
FL density 384 people/sq mi

#57 Bezengy on 03.02.21 at 5:14 pm

#28 Honest Realtor on 03.02.21 at 3:52 pm
————————
You do realize that your moniker implies realtors are dishonest right?

#58 NSNG on 03.02.21 at 5:15 pm

Don’t forget that huge family benefit that Trudeau has been shoveling off the back of the taxpayer money truck. I know this is the core of his plans because the electronic billboards are being filled with ads of the government patting themselves on the back for handing families other people’s money.

You know an election is close when the government advertisements start to show up everywhere.

#59 Suburban Bob on 03.02.21 at 5:16 pm

#28 Honest Realtor

“Realtors are definitely Number Two.”

You are referring to defecation, correct?

#60 NSNG on 03.02.21 at 5:17 pm

#55 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 5:08 pm

It’s not the house it’s the land, dude.

Now gimme another toke…

#61 Brian Ripley on 03.02.21 at 5:20 pm

“Has anyone seen an analysis of housing starts over the past 20 – 30 years versus populate growth in Canada? Perhaps this is another factor on the upward pressure on housing?” #8 Love_The_Cottage on 03.02.21 at 3:03 pm

My chart of ANNUAL COUNT of CANADIAN HOUSING STARTS vs Census in Canada, Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta since 1956 is here:

http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html#Annual

In January I thought starts would break out above the long term downtrend. In February I had to revise that notion.

#62 Niagara Region on 03.02.21 at 5:25 pm

News: “China ‘Worried’ About Bubble in Property, Foreign Markets”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/china-worried-about-bubbles-in-property-foreign-markets

#63 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

#28 Honest Realtor on 03.02.21 at 3:52 pm

I feel privilege to have been part of my profession for over a quarter century.

I greatly respect the role of our health care providers in these difficult times – they are Number One in my books.

But when it comes to helping Canadians preserve and grow better lives, Realtors are definitely Number Two.

————-

Yes, I agree: Realtors definitely occupy a lofty realm in society.

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes, your fees reflect only a small portion of the value you create.

Thank you for your service.

#64 Neo on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

#19 Dolce Vita on 03.02.21 at 3:39 pm
…meanwhile

VARIANT World

Now, even vax fan boy (me) is getting a little worried, just a little.

Mar 1 cumulative variant cases = 1,428
Feb 21 cumulative variant cases = 800

79% increase in 9 days.

Total new cases Mar 1 = 2564.
Mar 1 new variant cases = 145.

Variants 6% of total cases (was 1% on Feb 27).

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-variants-of-the-novel-coronavirus-in-canada-1.5296141

———————

Variants still low vs. total cases. N’est panicker pas…for now.

Though at the rate of variants increase, how long can that last?

I worry (a little bit for now) since variants seem to spread like a wildfire as they did in the UK, by Apr 4 best case 2 dose vax’d is 3.6M Beavers and all that will result in further, prolonged lockdowns (again) slowing the pace of vaccination and continuing to kill off/suppress the Cdn economy.

-FWIW

********************************************

What about ACTIVE “variant” cases dude. You notice we get daily new case numbers but only TOTAL variant numbers over two months time.

The UK strain showed up in Ontario on Dec. 27th. Since then there have been over 100,000 total cases and under 600 are variants. Since there are a little over 10,000 active cases chances are they are 60 active UK variances. Not so scary is it.

#65 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.02.21 at 5:29 pm

TOOT,TOOT,TOOOOT!
All aboard the Money Ball Express. The madness continues with Central Bankers at the throttle pouring the coal(money) on, and heading towards Dead Mans Curve doing 90 miles an hour. What could go wrong???
2020 broke our minds. If murder hornets can exist, so can miracle coins that will make us all millionaires one day.
Stop and laugh for a minute. Because this is crazy.
The lesson of the 2008-2009 global financial meltdown was crystal clear. Any decline in the rate of debt/leverage expansion is enough to threaten financial bubbles, and in any absolute decline will unleash a cascade that collapses all speculative bubbles in stocks, real estate, collectibles, etc.
With basically all prices and all market yields distorted, the economy and financial markets have entered a
“HALLOF MIRRORS REGIME” where consumers and firms inevitably get lost disoriented and make crazy decisions. Well that is all I have to say about that, for now.

#66 Brian Ripley on 03.02.21 at 5:30 pm

My monthly table update on rents is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

Y/Y Change in Rents:

1Bedrm 2Bedrm

-9.8% -12.0% Vancouver
+0.0% -1.5% Calgary
-1.1% -1.7% Edmonton
-23.0% -21.5% Toronto
-2.8% -3.4% Ottawa
-8.0% -11.0% Montreal

Data above are for all apartments available or vacant not including short term or Airbnb listings.

The Pandemic Eliminates Nearly 4 Years of Rent Growth in Vancouver & Toronto

“One-bedroom rents in Vancouver and Toronto have reached their lowest points in nearly 4 years. The last time Toronto one-bedroom rent was as low as it is in this report was in February 2017, when it was $1,700. And the last time Vancouver rent was this low was in April 2017, when it was at $1,940. It seems the continuous rent price declines from renter migration out of Canada’s two most expensive rental markets have not stopped, even as COVID-19 vaccines have begun to roll out.” Hat Tip to the PadMapper Blog

#67 Bezengy on 03.02.21 at 5:34 pm

Here are some of the 500 or so Canadian companies/institutions whose employees probably won’t be buying a house this spring, including Sudbury’s Laurentian University employees.

https://insolvencyinsider.ca/filing/

#68 Niagara Region on 03.02.21 at 5:35 pm

#28 Honest realtor

Just keep telling yourself that.

#69 Penny Henny on 03.02.21 at 5:40 pm

#39 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:23 pm
#28 Honest Realtor

No one is buying that REALTOR RUBBISH any more. Everyone knows home moaners have to pay for A LOT OF STUFF DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY ANNUALLY THAT GOES ALONG WITH OWNERSHIP WHILE RENTING DOES NOT. SO BE HONEST!
////////////////

Your landlord called, said you’re late on the rent.
Oh, and you smell.

#70 TurnerNation on 03.02.21 at 5:42 pm

Why is Kanada being punished economically? Maybe a UBI must be pushed through, nay demanded?.

Sure would be nice to visit the USA and see. Too bad about that virtual Berlin Wall we got. Curfews? Quarrantine Kamp hotels? Life in Kommuist Kanada. Florida is open also:

– Gov. Greg Abbott says it is now time to open Texas 100%, end statewide mask mandate (dallasnews.com)

– Daily Mail :Texas, Mississippi to lift mask mandates, allow all businesses to reopen at full capacity

– Meanwhile in Sweeden, a new Ski hill video; in my province Ski Hills are ordered shut – too dangerous you see. What fun they are having. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ3dDSSvdwQ

…………
—The state of Science in Ontario (LOL), the elites are playing with us. Seeing how much we will swallow.
Look at this witchcraft – Mondays are unsafe!!

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/03/lcbo-stores-ontario-open-mondays-again/
“After cutting down its operating hours at the onset of the pandemic, the LCBO has finally decided to open up its stores on Mondays again.
It’s been nearly an entire year that the Ontario alcohol retailer has kept all locations shuttered on the first day of the work week as a safety measure”

—–
For ‘Doomer’ Dolce – the EU VaxCert has been in the works since 2018. I guess they just needed the right crisis to propel forward this work.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf
Examine the feasibility of developing a common vaccination
card/passport for EU citizens

#71 Penny Henny on 03.02.21 at 5:43 pm

#43 Premature Economist on 03.02.21 at 4:42 pm
When home prices are falling smart people stand back and wait until they hit the bottom sometime into the future Never pay more than you can afford to lose There will always be homes for sale next week, next month next year. Don’t get sucked into paying higher prices. RENT & SAVE
//////////////

I see that VREU is back in town.

#72 Not Stone on 03.02.21 at 5:46 pm

#48 Stone on 03.02.21 at 4:47 pm

B&D having another good day today. 6.50% YTD. Thanks for the dividend today ZPR.
////////////////

ENB and FTS paid out yesterday.
9.43 YTD. u r falling behind Stone

#73 Linda on 03.02.21 at 5:53 pm

The question is, if you are priced out where you are, where do you go? Somewhere less expensive in Canada is rapidly becoming harder to find. The USA? Well, turns out that the virus has been having an upward effect on housing prices down south too. Surprise, lots of Yankees want to isolate themselves from their fellow germ laden humans just like us busy little beavers up north. Wouldn’t be surprised if competition from foreign buyers might spark some legislation limiting how/when said foreigners can buy/live in the USA, especially if the locals are unable to find/buy because the available stock is being snapped up by said foreigners.

#74 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.02.21 at 5:53 pm

#28 Honest Realtor

Bahahahahahahahaha!!!!

I spent more than my share of time around realtors. I will admit I met a couple that were stand up people. The only realtor I’ve ever dealt with some my stint in real estate is one that at the start of inspection took me aside and told me to destroy the inspection because the house was way, way outside the buyers budget because of the poor condition and extensive work it would need to even be livable. They didn’t have the dough and couldn’t get a plus improvements mortgage. It wasn’t hard to point out the blemishes on that one but she honestly always had her clients interest at heart in my experience.

In my experience, the realtor disappeared the second the commission cheque showed up- that’s when the clients realized the agent was only pretending to be their friend. Problem with the house? Call your attorney. Call the home inspector. Call the insurance company. Anyone, but the realtor.

#75 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm

Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm
#28 Honest Realtor on 03.02.21 at 3:52 pm

I feel privilege to have been part of my profession for over a quarter century.

I greatly respect the role of our health care providers in these difficult times – they are Number One in my books.

But when it comes to helping Canadians preserve and grow better lives, Realtors are definitely Number Two.

————-

Yes, I agree: Realtors definitely occupy a lofty realm in society.

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes, your fees reflect only a small portion of the value you create.
Thank you for your service.
±++++++++
No need to pick on prostitutes

#76 Bob Dog on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm

That’s a long winded way of saying.. Canada has an appalling standard of living and it’s getting worse.

Bankers are terrorists

Politicians are puppets

Don’t forget about those NAFTA TN1 visas kids. Your country is lost.

#77 Wrk.dover on 03.02.21 at 6:16 pm

#38 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 4:22 pm
Love these prices in the GTA. Probably ~80-85K median household incomes, and now 1.7 million for a detached LOL! Lock in for 5 at 1.8 and you’re looking at a 7K monthly for a what-ev house.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

‘Magin the steel clad, high end interior 400 sq ft out-building four months of that loose change would erect.

#78 I'm Alright Jack on 03.02.21 at 6:21 pm

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

I’m very fearful for our housing market at present. This will not end well for Canada and for many over-extended Canadians. Give it a year or two.

#79 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 6:24 pm

#23 Old Ron on 03.02.21 at 3:43 pm

The Feds lead by Justin saved the housing market, and a lot of Canadians as well.
— —- —-

Let me refine that a bit for you homie. Justin has seriously enriched homeowners, the investor class, and wealthy asset owning Canadians. Mostly folks who didn’t need the help – even a little bit.

Those who work low paying jobs, and have neither investments nor real estate, have been pounded into the ground like a fence post thanks to Trudeau and his goofball Liberals.

#80 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm

#75 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm
Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes, your fees reflect only a small portion of the value you create.
Thank you for your service.

———-

No need to pick on prostitutes

———-

Apologies. Please replace with pimps.

#81 MF on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm

69 Penny Henny on 03.02.21 at 5:40 pm

-Of course he did. The “landlord” is probably leveraged to the hilt and can’t afford a missed mortgage payment.

MF

#82 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.02.21 at 6:32 pm

Sigh, why does everyone assume the worst ? Let’s look at some data.
Average mortgage payments in BC and Ontario hover around the rounded 1,800 CAD ,with Vancouver City and Toronto at a stunning.. wait for it 2,200 CAD.
Add another 1k for insurance, property tax,strata ,misc. And you can see that most families that qualify for a mortgage can easily swing the 3k monthly to carry the house, renters not included.
Ofcourse the average income family can’t afford a SFH but when was it any different? If it were the rise of suburbia wouldn’t have happened.
Also I would like to point out that property ladder is a thing ,ya know ,you climb based on income,start with a 1 bedroom.
Here is the link
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/data-tables/average-scheduled-monthly-payments-new-mortgage-loans

#83 CL on 03.02.21 at 6:46 pm

But, Garth, where, when and how does this insanity end? or does it? This is simply unbelievable. An average cost over 1MM? this is pure stupidity at all levels.

One thing to note, Lyft, a ride sharing biz, is seeing a ‘lift’ in it’s business sooner than they thought. Not that Lyft is the economy but little indicators are showing this “desire” for space won’t last. I see more and more businesses saying working from home will end. But, then, nobody thought Canadian real estate insanity would last this long either.

I also note, I watch BNN everyday (please don’t ban me!) and I am pretty sure that most of these guys you quote are reading your blog and simply regurgitating what you write because I have noticed you are always first. Then they come along later and get public recognition for their “predictions” and get paid for it. In writing, it is called plagiarism. Interesting.

#84 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 6:48 pm

#77 Wrk.dover on 03.02.21 at 6:16 pm
#38 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 4:22 pm
Love these prices in the GTA. Probably ~80-85K median household incomes, and now 1.7 million for a detached LOL! Lock in for 5 at 1.8 and you’re looking at a 7K monthly for a what-ev house.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

‘Magin the steel clad, high end interior 400 sq ft out-building four months of that loose change would erect.
——

Shit, give me 28k, and I’d build something a lot bigger than 400sf! (After building materials return to normal).

True story: A young dude down the road started a garden shed project 2 summers ago. He was using 4×4 pallets for walls, so it was easy to see that it was a 16×16’ shed. Built pole barn style with a compacted stone floor and salvaged patio slabs on top. The trusses were made with stringers cut from the pallets, stick framed, maybe 5-6/12 pitch. He bought plywood and 2×6’s for the rooftop and fascia boards. Finished with home made twin doors, asphalt shingles, paint and vinyl siding. He told me he had less than 2k in it! Looked totally normal on the outside, inside left as is. It was wired up too. (no permits for anything).

#85 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 6:52 pm

#80 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm
#75 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm
Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes, your fees reflect only a small portion of the value you create.
Thank you for your service.

———-

No need to pick on prostitutes

———-

Apologies. Please replace with pimps.

— ———

Hey! Pimping ain’t easy!!

#86 MF on 03.02.21 at 6:53 pm

2 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 03.02.21 at 6:32 pm

“Property ladder”?

Psst.. check out the household debt levels of Canadians to see how everyone “affords” their house.

Psst also look at average income versus average home price for more clues.

MF

#87 Cow Man on 03.02.21 at 6:58 pm

The entire Region of Halton has only 4 dairy farms left. Lots of farm land just no farmers. They all fled when the Province brought in the Greenbelt Legislation. The Greenbelt didn’t save farmers it whipped them out. Thanks Dalton.

#88 Cici on 03.02.21 at 7:09 pm

I don’t believe Siddall made any “mistakes”… everything he did and said was calculated and aimed at goosing RE once again.

As for the bankers, they’re just trying to scare people into rushing into evermore expensive RE purchases. And it’s working.

LOL! Gotta lock in that rate before it rises ever so slightly before falling back down again.

And so the CDN ponzi continues.

#89 rowdie on 03.02.21 at 7:16 pm

My brother-inlaw is crying he is in financial woes, and has to work until he is 72 years old. Not my problem. He has a nice home and all the toys plus land he purchased up north. Crocodile tears …… if you cannot afford a rich, lifestyle with all the trimmings don’t go there!!!! Not many sensible people out there with a few brain cells to live within your means. It is a sorry straight we live in now.

#90 Love_The_Cottage on 03.02.21 at 7:29 pm

#54 Guelph Guru on 03.02.21 at 5:06 pm
The problem is if you can do your job sitting 1.5 hours away, the same can be done by someone in Philipines or China or India. They have the same level of technology these days. In may cases better than us.
So I pray everyday, that I should not be able to WFH.
________
I’m so bored with this ‘argument’. If someone offshore can provide the same quality of work at a lower rate it won’t matter if you are in the office or not. The job will go overseas. In some cases this happens. Just like before.

With the offshore teams that I’ve been working with for 20 years they lack both strong communication skills and real world business experience. And internet connection has been lost in the Philipines multiple times in the past year as the latest typhoon moves through.

#91 Quintilian on 03.02.21 at 7:32 pm

Evan Siddall says:
“I don’t recall anyone predicting accurately what actually transpired.”

True Mr. Siddall, but your prediction was doomed from the start.

You cannot predict, or forecast the Canadian Housing Market with logic, or mathematical functions, no matter how sophisticate the super computers, or how well schooled the researches might be.

The buyers are driven by non-measurable, non-reasonable non logical factors, and therefore your scientific method could only yield accurate results only by coincidence at best.

As Elton John says:
“It’s like trying to drink whisky from a bottle of wine.”

Tick Tock, Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#92 T. on 03.02.21 at 7:35 pm

…you sure get a lot of feedback…very enlightening…disturbing at times…glad I am not the editor.

#93 Now I have seen it all ... on 03.02.21 at 7:46 pm

got my free postage-paid postcard delivered from Canada Post today to “reach out to a friend or family member.” Think I will save it for Christmas … good Lord … what next?

#94 Leftover on 03.02.21 at 7:58 pm

#51 S.Bby
______________________________________
#28 Honest Realtor

placing realtors in the #2 spot behind healthcare workers? you are joking, right ?
______________________________________

I believe irony may be at work here, the Honest Realtor handle is a bit of a giveaway

#95 Stone on 03.02.21 at 8:00 pm

#72 Not Stone on 03.02.21 at 5:46 pm
#48 Stone on 03.02.21 at 4:47 pm

B&D having another good day today. 6.50% YTD. Thanks for the dividend today ZPR.
////////////////

ENB and FTS paid out yesterday.
9.43 YTD. u r falling behind Stone

———

Hey Groupie. How’s it going? ENB and FTS are not balanced and diversified as you have it presented. If you want to be my groupie, you need to do it the right way. Otherwise, you can’t be my groupie even though I’m really enjoying having groupie.

Are there any serious groupies out there? This one seems to be a bit of a dud.

#96 Cheese on 03.02.21 at 8:16 pm

It should all just burn.

#97 Phylis on 03.02.21 at 8:26 pm

#67 Bezengy on 03.02.21 at 5:34 pm
Here are some of the 500 or so Canadian companies/institutions whose employees probably won’t be buying a house this spring, including Sudbury’s Laurentian University employees.

https://insolvencyinsider.ca/filing/

Xxxxxxxx
Interesting, a plywood manufacturer has given notice.

#98 Big Tuna on 03.02.21 at 8:31 pm

Garth,
Goldman CEO agrees with you, WFH will soon die

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-ceo-working-from-home-is-an-aberration-11614251629?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 8:32 pm

@#93 …seen it all…”

“… good Lord … what next?”
++++

Its March.
We will finally seen the Budget after a two year hiatus.

Cant wait to see what Socks and Christie Freecash have dreamt up for election “freebies” in their latest gender neutral money printing press.

If past hundred billion dollar giveaways are any indication…..it should be nauseating.

#100 Nonplused on 03.02.21 at 8:36 pm

#2 Leftover on 03.02.21 at 2:47 pm

“Housing is to Canada what oil is (was) to Alberta – a lazy, low value-added drain on productivity and growth, not to mention diversification, as if that mattered.”

Why so down on oil? Oil (and natural gas) are the underpinnings of our modern economy. Even if we imagine a day (which I can’t, not in the near term anyway) where no oil or gas was burned as fuel anywhere in the world, it would still be coming out of the ground for use in plastics, chemicals, asphalts, lubricants, etc. The world simply can’t do without it.

Alberta’s problem is 2 fold. First, we are land locked so we rely on pipelines that nobody will let us expand due to “bugger thy neighbour” economic policy masquerading as “green”. Second, them crazy Texans went nuts drilling shale oil despite the fact they weren’t making any money. I think that is pretty much on the go down now though.

Alberta will be in for some more rough years ahead, I figure. I figure about the 10 years we have to “save” the world. But sooner or later people will come to realize that wind and solar will never be able to power a 24/7 electric grid and charge all the Teslas on their own. The sun doesn’t shine at night. But since it seems that the people who make policy do not have an education in electricity load planning, thermodynamics, or economics, indeed any science whatsoever, I predict the “green new deal” will continue to roll forward until the masses start asking why there are blackouts nearly every single week. Meanwhile the CCP will be happy to import any oil we aren’t using to run what will soon be the only viable economy on the planet.

The oil will continue to be pumped because we need the lubricants, asphalts, fertilizers, plastics, rubber, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals that are made from it, and probably always will. The gasoline and natural gas that comes from the production of oil started out as a by-products that they just flared until Rockefeller convinced Ford to make his Model T run on gasoline rather than alcohol, and people started heating their homes with natural gas because it was so darn cheap and clean compared to coal or wood (or fuel oil).

So we see, as always, that everything in life is a compromise. If you want to build a light weight electric car you need plastic. To make plastic you need ethane. To get ethane you need to produce natural gas. If you produce natural gas, well I suppose they can use it now to produce synthetic lubricants but much too much comes out of the well for just that. So it is going to be burned. Better to heat homes with it than just flare it.

The “Green New Deal” is likely a CCP propaganda campaign. They certainly aren’t doing it themselves so all their scientists must not be smart enough to figure out that we only have 10 years to save the world. But let’s look at the upside for China. Not only do they get to build the windmills and solar panels and sell them to us at a profit, it also drives up our electricity prices making China even more competitive than based on labor alone, and it keeps a lid on what they have to pay for energy.

So worry not for Alberta long term. Right now Buffet is funding all the green protests and the political campaigns because he wants the oil to go by train, since he owns the railroads. But eventually China will just buy northern BC and build all the pipelines they want.

Going on long here but also stay away from Nikola. Most of the world’s hydrogen comes from natural gas and the carbon is emitted into the atmosphere anyway, so their trucks would be more efficient and less polluting if they just ran them on natural gas. It is a scam. Yes I know you can make hydrogen using hydrolysis as well, but have you any idea how many windmills you need to do that?

#101 Faron on 03.02.21 at 8:36 pm

#81 MF on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm

69 Penny Henny on 03.02.21 at 5:40 pm

-Of course he did. The “landlord” is probably leveraged to the hilt and can’t afford a missed mortgage payment.

MF

Which is totally why said lamelord should simultaneously be able to defer a year of mortgage payments and whine about rent deferral and eviction moratoriums. /s

Lamelord: “but I put my capital at risk to provide housing”

Sensibility: “no one put a gun to your head to overbuy beyond your housing needs and beyond your ability to sustain it independently. Your house isn’t a business and you aren’t out a dime ’cause deferral”

Lamelord: “but muh cash flow”

#102 1255 on 03.02.21 at 8:37 pm

I’ll quit if I have to go back to the office. No more packed GO train for me!

#103 Kev on 03.02.21 at 8:38 pm

We have a little Deja vu here my friend. “Rates with never be this low ever again” blah blah blah. Then there was a pandemic and that nixed that notion. Simply put, nobody knows what’s next, not even the Great Turner. Someone will always be wrong ;-)

#104 Niagara Region on 03.02.21 at 8:55 pm

Guelph Guru #54
The problem is if you can do your job sitting 1.5 hours away, the same can be done by someone in Philipines or China or India. They have the same level of technology these days. In may cases better than us.
So I pray everyday, that I should not be able to WFH.
__________________________________________
Great point, Guelph Guru. You have me rethinking the WFH paradigm now.

#105 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 8:59 pm

BC Government wants residential rent freeze to go until 2022

#106 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 9:02 pm

#104 Niagara Region

And they will worker cheaper. Now the competition pool has become an ocean.

#107 Nonplused on 03.02.21 at 9:03 pm

#90 Love_The_Cottage on 03.02.21 at 7:29 pm
#54 Guelph Guru on 03.02.21 at 5:06 pm
The problem is if you can do your job sitting 1.5 hours away, the same can be done by someone in Philipines or China or India. They have the same level of technology these days. In may cases better than us.
So I pray everyday, that I should not be able to WFH.
________
I’m so bored with this ‘argument’. If someone offshore can provide the same quality of work at a lower rate it won’t matter if you are in the office or not. The job will go overseas. In some cases this happens. Just like before.

With the offshore teams that I’ve been working with for 20 years they lack both strong communication skills and real world business experience. And internet connection has been lost in the Philipines multiple times in the past year as the latest typhoon moves through.

———————————

The threat of offshoring only compresses wages, it doesn’t really move a lot of jobs. All of the attempts I have seen to offshore “tech” jobs have failed unless you can move the factory.

Apple still designs in California. Microsoft still develops code in Washington.

Part of the problem is culture and education. But part is also infrastructure. In the same way that power integration is usually only able to shift a small portion of the electrons back and forth between regions and can never be a solution to Texas style blackouts, them undersea fiber optic cables have limits too.

It is one thing to have to upload 100 megabytes over night to your company servers located 100 miles away. If everybody is trying to do that to the Philippines we are going to need more undersea fiber optic cables. Maybe they will come, but why? Wage adjustments are more likely.

There is a reason why (well, besides the obvious physical limitations) that cell phones only have a range of about 5 miles. If you tried to run the Canada wide cell phone network on one big antenna (assuming the cell phones could reach it which they can’t, but as an example), the frequencies would be completely overwhelmed by too much data. The “cell” method is the only reason it works.

It works fairly well right now for a few people to work remotely 4000 miles from the main office on well developed networks. But if everyone was trying that, no.

#108 rknusa on 03.02.21 at 9:09 pm

look at these numbers

A surge in real estate prices that extended down the Highway 401 corridor created a 35-per cent jump in the average price of a home in the Windsor area this January compared to January 2020.

The average local sales price for the month was $510,716 compared to $379,813 just 12 months earlier and $206,383 higher than in January 2019.

The London/St. Thomas Association of Realtors reported the average price rose 40.5 per cent in the region, to sit at $607,431.

Chatham-Kent’s average price rose 42.4 per cent to push the average home to $350,452 for January.

Monthly prices increased 21 per cent in Ontario, the largest increase of any province, with the average home costing $796,884. The inventory of new listings in Canada is at a record low.

https://windsorstar.com/news/home-prices-surging-in-hot-local-real-estate-market

#109 Faron on 03.02.21 at 9:17 pm

#100 Nonplused on 03.02.21 at 8:36 pm

#2 Leftover on 03.02.21 at 2:47 pm

Not going to do another renewables lap here, but the more salient point is that by relying on old school resources and non-innovative RE, Canada has let 30% of its productuve capacity go to brain-dead industries. Yes, we need oil and there will be a market for it as long as it lasts, but it’s not innovative. Oil nations are rich by accident of geology, not from driving productivity forward. Saudi Arabia is realizing this and is pivoting away from oil. Norway was wise enough to esrablish a sovereign wealth fund for the future. Oil keeps the economy running but does little to spur real productivity growth. RE is just an incestuous consumer waste land. Brain dead as anything.

#110 CapitalK on 03.02.21 at 9:18 pm

#30 Dave

Increasing down payment requirements would make it harder for first time buyers. The house prices now are already making even 5% to 10% down hard to save for. The better solution would be to limit people from taking equity from their first home to buy a second, third or fourth home. It’s a joke that you can take a loan to get loan and keep doing it when there are people saving their hard earned money just get into their first property. I hope Garth is right and some correction happens, because I finally saved up enough for decent home (if it were 2019) now the houses in price range are a joke, I’d much rather rent then live in those dumps in that price range today.

#111 Nonplused on 03.02.21 at 9:20 pm

#87 Cow Man on 03.02.21 at 6:58 pm
The entire Region of Halton has only 4 dairy farms left. Lots of farm land just no farmers. They all fled when the Province brought in the Greenbelt Legislation. The Greenbelt didn’t save farmers it whipped them out. Thanks Dalton.

———————————-

They are probably big corporate farms though.

This is how the elite play chess. Quota was supposed to save the family farm, but combined with capital gains taxes it made the situation such that only corporations that would never sell or transfer quota could stay in business. Farmers were stuck with an offer they couldn’t refuse: Get millions for your quota or stick your kids with a huge tax bill that they can’t afford, so they have to sell some anyway and no longer have enough quota to stay in business.

So far as I can see watching friends of the family dairy farm, you needed about 80 cows to stay in business. But now that quota, if I read the stats right, is $46,000 per kg per day, the son would have to come up with $920,000 tax just to take over the family farm, not counting any land appreciation, which I am sure there is much.

The tax system is designed to consolidate wealth in a few hands.

#112 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 9:28 pm

more BC real estate crookery:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7672708/real-estate-lawyers-may-have-helped-high-rollers-buy-vancouver-homes-like-casino-chips-inquiry/

#113 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.02.21 at 9:32 pm

Federal election on the way.

Got an Angus Reid survey this evening probing my thoughts of not only the current Liberals but who my second and third choices would be, as well as my thoughts on economic and foreign policy. They even asked about when I thought it appropriate for an election to be called.

#114 BCWally on 03.02.21 at 9:36 pm

I don’t know there’s a lot here that hasn’t shown up yet.
1./ The call back to the office 3 days a week for some.
2./ Salary reductions for those that don’t and the ever present threat of Mumbai office services. Oh, lets not forget the slow and steady AI job elimination as well. Dave and Debby who? Oh we can farm that out. Anybody remember who that was?
3./ Higher taxation for a multitude of reasons, especially municipal in the larger centers. The office building no longer pays it right? It’s empty and for sale.
4./ Ratings downgrades on the federal and provincial debt. Even without Covid we were digging a huge hole. Maybe now no one needs the hundreds of dollars a month per child for daycare because everybody is at home right? Just sayin’
5./ The world bond market. Big, bad and coming to your bank soon. Think Godzilla in Tokyo.
Look, I think we have lived way beyond our means in this country and voted that way too. Saved nothing for a rainy day, let productive investment slide off the map, voted for goodies we can’t afford, etc.
Evan just assumed that the central bank and federal government were as fiscally responsible as he was. That was the mistake.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 9:37 pm

@#101 faron
“Sensibility: “no one put a gun to your head to overbuy beyond your housing needs and beyond your ability to sustain it independently. Your house isn’t a business and you aren’t out a dime ’cause deferral””

+++++

fair enough.
But then we have the Feds and Vancouver announce they are “doing something about homelessness” by spending $50 million dollar to buy a 60 year old Motor Inn on Vancouver’s East side on Kingsway……for , eventually, 65 units of housing……..”
And I’m sure the neighbors of the Kingsway Inn are “thrilled” at the thought of drug addicts and mentally disabled people rooting through the garbage in their neighbourhood.

50 million dollars for 65 units of housing…..
FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS for 65 apartments…..
As our Parks are either locked behind temporary fencing or taken over by the mentally disturbed and drug addicts.
As the politically correct, hand washing, blame avoiding, spineless gastropods we elect as “leaders” hide behind Zoom spewing the latest blame culture slogans.
Like it or not.
Private landlords are light years ahead of the govt.

#116 S.Bby on 03.02.21 at 9:37 pm

how well will this age ?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7673333/bc-fraser-valley-real-estate-sales/

Board CEO Baldev Gill said many people are looking for more space to work from home and are no longer commuting to an urban centre for work.

#117 Puzzled in Mtl on 03.02.21 at 9:42 pm

Re 90
That’s the point. How people WFH all the time are going to acquire or keep up their “strong communication skills” or their “real world business experience”?

#118 Sheesh on 03.02.21 at 9:44 pm

#42 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 4:33 pm
The only thing you can conclude from these numbers is that lockdowns had no apparent effect on the death rate from COVID-19 in any jurisdiction, regardless of whether they locked down or not.”
….
Fun, I can cherry pick some stats too. Let’s see what we can conclude.

Minimal restrictions / deaths per million from worldometers

Arkansas 1741
South Dakota 2134
North Dakota 1899
Georgia 1646
Sweden1270
Brazil 1206

With Lockdowns/restrictions

Oregon 528
Maine 523
Washington 664
California 1336
Vermont 330
Finland 136
Canada 585

Now what?

#119 old Ron on 03.02.21 at 9:48 pm

To those who have called me out here, I fully understand. The only point of contention is whether or not the B of C will continue to suppress rates. as they have done for some years. Frankly, I am unable to come up with a single piece of evidence to suggest a change in the Banks direction, other than a hunch, and the feeling that the entire economy is top heavy in real estate, as the former head of CMHC suggested.

Perhaps Old Dogs take time to learn new tricks. Even Garth has become bullish on Real Estate lately.

#120 Al on 03.02.21 at 9:50 pm

” government had to go $380 billion in hock to bail society out. How could that possibly end well”

Money printing always ends well ( if well means inflating asset prices), at least for the last 15 years. Almost a generation. It’s often hard to forecast human behaviour ( economics). No correction will happen unless there’s massive job loss AND no printed trillions. CBs have found out the printing press trick works. Until it doesn’t. Good luck trying to guess when that will be.

#121 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.02.21 at 9:51 pm

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Milton Friedman

#122 T on 03.02.21 at 10:03 pm

#103 Kev on 03.02.21 at 8:38 pm
We have a little Deja vu here my friend. “Rates with never be this low ever again” blah blah blah. Then there was a pandemic and that nixed that notion. Simply put, nobody knows what’s next, not even the Great Turner. Someone will always be wrong ;-)

———

It’s definitely different this time.

Except, it’s not.

#123 Owl Eyes on 03.02.21 at 10:04 pm

One thing to watch – will there be pent up supply as a realtor indicated in Garth’s post yesterday?

#124 Doug t on 03.02.21 at 10:29 pm

I think people are exhausted- exhausted worrying and over thinking every single aspect of their life, investing, housing, pandemic life, politics, retirement needs etc – brain fog has set in and getting worse- everyday it’s “OMG” on all fronts – it’s enough to make a sane person wave the white flag (can I say that)

#125 Jack on 03.02.21 at 10:55 pm

I’ve been reading this blog for the last 8 years. I remember how the everyone here was saying that “wait for the rates to go up and we’ll see!”. The rates went up and nothing happened. Then we’ve got “ha, now with the stress test everybody will want to sell and the prices will tumble”. Thay didn’t happen either. Then there was “in the next recession the housing market will crash for sure”. We had the virus for one year and we see the houses rising 25-40% in price. That’s with the unemployment. So, please explain to me: what makes you think that the next rise in rates will bring any more changes than before? Maybe it’s time to admit that the houses are more immune to any economic changes than we think? Maybe it’s time to admit that the people are not so super-extended with their debt and can still continue to pay for their mortgages? And if anything happens to the market then this will be only temporary? Waiting to see your replies.

#126 DON on 03.02.21 at 11:00 pm

Is it possible to teach people to be stupid?

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.21 at 11:31 pm

#85 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 6:52 pm
#80 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm
#75 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm
Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes, your fees reflect only a small portion of the value you create.
Thank you for your service.
———-
No need to pick on prostitutes
———-
Apologies. Please replace with pimps.
— ———
Hey! Pimping ain’t easy!
————-
Speaking from experience?

#128 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.21 at 11:36 pm

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 8:32 pm
@#93 …seen it all…”

“… good Lord … what next?”
++++

Its March.
We will finally seen the Budget after a two year hiatus.

Cant wait to see what Socks and Christie Freecash have dreamt up for election “freebies” in their latest gender neutral money printing press.

If past hundred billion dollar giveaways are any indication…..it should be nauseating
———————
I think we’ll get a budget balanced down to the penny.

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.21 at 11:40 pm

Average SFH in the prestigious Fraser Valley is now 1.2 mill.
Up 20% y.o.y.
Sorry, CEF you missed the boat.

#130 KNOW IT ALL on 03.03.21 at 12:30 am

The Canadian Real Estate market is the most corrupt market on Earth.

#131 willworkforpickles on 03.03.21 at 2:28 am

Does the government lie about the real inflation rate and the real numbers of unemployed. Absolutely!

Is the cost of EVERYTHING up, even way up. Absolutely!

Better than 1/5th of all the money ever created was created in 2020.

Created out of nothing during the stalled/low production overall days of 2020 and high unemployment levels far exceeding the great recession and not seen since depression days.

All that new printed money around with pent up demand and anticipation to get out and spend hoarded savings – coupled with yet more massive stimulus outpouring and they’re going to tell us and keep telling us inflation is under control.

High unemployment levels…low production output…free and easy money chasing diminishing supplies of goods (even the food supply is becoming diminished and at low levels)…not low enough to be reaching a crisis point yet, but getting there for prices to be quickly rising on most goods already.

-so… much more price inflation…?

Much more price inflation is on the way as the decade of lies picks up.

#132 Toronto_CA on 03.03.21 at 3:51 am

#54 Guelph Guru on 03.02.21 at 5:06 pm
Every day, I hear new explanations of why it is ok to move 1.5 hours away from your work place. The usual story is that, a new era has begun where WFH is the new norm. It’s the next industrial or whatever revolution.
The problem is if you can do your job sitting 1.5 hours away, the same can be done by someone in Philipines or China or India. They have the same level of technology these days. In may cases better than us.
So I pray everyday, that I should not be able to WFH.
________________________

Let me attack this argument, yet again, because it hasn’t been done enough.

Offshoring is hardly new, and has happened to a large extent since the mid 00s. While many jobs did move, the trend in the last few years has been to move the jobs back as the practicality of using a service centre on the other side of the world is quite diminished relative to the cost savings.

It is MUCH better for a company to use a service centre in a cheaper area of Canada, like Moncton; or for Brits to use Belfast or Leeds, than to use Bangalore or Manilla. You’ve got most/more of the cost savings benefit if you use your own country, and none of the issues with 3rd world infrastructure, communication issues, and time zones.

I have real world experience with this, and know the trends. Covid will, in my opinion since this is the future, push for service centres to move away from city centres like Toronto and into regional, cheaper cities where people are used to lower salaries. “WFH” will persisit at 1-3 days a week in the office, and the balance at home. As many posters have been saying for the last 6 months while Garth gradually came around to this line of thinking as well. Hybrid is the way forward.

Stop worrying about the offshore boogeyman – that ship has sailed and shipwrecked.

#133 Prince Polo on 03.03.21 at 6:27 am

Housing: “uppa, uppa, UPPA” (as per a certain author & commenter or two on here).

Yet, economic reality:
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/101014-sky-regional-to-close-as-air-canada-moves-e175s-to-jazz-air

#134 slick on 03.03.21 at 7:18 am

a bump up in interest rates will likely scare those on the edge, to jump into the fray. House prices could jump another 25% in the next few months. Seasonally, the timing is right, things are opening up. Divorces caused by the pandemic will put a few more houses on the market.

#135 Klick klack on 03.03.21 at 7:30 am

I heard a lot of these arguments about why jobs can’t be offshored before, in the 70s and 80s from workers whose jobs are long gone.

It doesn’t happen overnight, but you would be foolish to think it won’t happen.

#136 maxx on 03.03.21 at 7:53 am

@ #12

GHG emissions will increase dramatically – in fact, they’ve already begun to do so.

People are now using their cars excessively for the same reasons suburbanites always have: milk, booze, cigarettes, weed run out, etc., shopping, medical appointments, etc., visiting family and friends, boredom, etc., and almost nobody wants to board public transportation. Ever. Again.

Those interested in moving up the company ladder will be showing up at the office. They will become the new inner circle. The rest can stay in their jammies all they want – they will be self-defining themselves as, ahem, somewhat less motivated.

WFH productivity? Pfffft!. I cringe at the idea of talking to a supplier knowing that they may be in their PJ’s with a bowl of gummy bears on the side. Yuck!

#137 maxx on 03.03.21 at 7:57 am

@ #13 Sailaway

SD is a gorgeous state. Love that Western Prairie Warbler, one of the most melodious birds on the planet.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 8:28 am

@#128 Ponzie’s Penny Pinching
“I think we’ll get a budget balanced down to the penny.”

$$$$$$

Possibly the funniest statement I’ve read so far this year.

@#129 Ponzie’s Premature Property Price Predictions
“Sorry, CEF you missed the boat.”

$$$$$
Your “property” is only worth what you eventually sell it for.
Let’s see what the value of the property is these Greaterfools flocked in to purchase in 2 years, 5, etc as interest rates rise. .
Oh.
My commute time from my rental apt. to my business yesterday?
11 minutes door to door.
Priceless.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 8:44 am

@#112 S. Bby

https://globalnews.ca/news/7672708/real-estate-lawyers-may-have-helped-high-rollers-buy-vancouver-homes-like-casino-chips-inquiry/

Yep.
And as this “inquiry” drones on and on telling the public what they already suspected for years…..

Fewer and fewer people care because they know that almost no one…..
Almost no one…… will spend a day in a Canadian court.

And if by some miracle someone is charged, tried, and eventually ( after years of appeals) convicted…..
Its a white collar crime that will mean a light “wrist slap” sentence and maybe electronic monitoring at home watching tv …..after years in court, endless appeals and millions in cash spent by taxpayers .
They will sit in a multi million dollar home, phoning skip the dishes, surfing the internet, watching tv.
The horror.

#140 millmech on 03.03.21 at 8:58 am

#129
This is starting to remind me of Japan in the eighties.
This is what happens when you have a limited amount of land to build on, we should be building higher density housing. Our politician and decision makers should be looking at our fully developed land mass and be making better choices.
Japan also has four times our population and is twenty six times smaller than Canada with an average house price of around $600,000 in Tokyo, what are they doing wrong.

#141 Squire on 03.03.21 at 9:30 am

#132 Toronto_CA on 03.03.21 at 3:51 am
————————————————-
I agree as well. Offshore workers are a pain and often cannot do the work properly in addition to not being as invested as a local worker. I haven’t had good experiences with offshore workers. In fact, dealing with my counterparts in Newfoundland has been way more pleasant and efficient.
Offshoring is the produce of psychopathic executive decisions who are hell bent on making themselves look great for a few dollars.

#142 Sonny on 03.03.21 at 9:31 am

The Canadian Real Estate market is the most corrupt market on Earth.

#143 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 10:07 am

#137 maxx on 03.03.21 at 7:57 am
@ #13 Sailaway

SD is a gorgeous state. Love that Western Prairie Warbler, one of the most melodious birds on the planet.

————-

Agreed. We particularly love the geology, scenery and wildlife around the Black Hills.

The state’s regulatory respect for personal $ is also something to behold.

#144 Russ on 03.03.21 at 10:27 am

DON on 03.02.21 at 11:00 pm
Is it possible to teach people to be stupid?

================

I doubt that. It is not possible these people to become this stupid in one generation.

Cheers, R

#145 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 10:32 am

#140 millmech on 03.03.21 at 8:58 am

This is what happens when you have a limited amount of land to build on, we should be building higher density housing.

————-

Ah, yes, that must be it, since Canada’s population density ranks 185th out of 202 countries, just slightly above the Western Sahara and Mongolia, but fully 17 spots up from Greenland at the absolute bottom.

If only we could find more land!

#146 Stone on 03.03.21 at 10:37 am

#126 DON on 03.02.21 at 11:00 pm
Is it possible to teach people to be stupid?

———

ABSOLUTELY! Have you been to university?

Even better than that: MBA!

#147 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 10:48 am

#132 Toronto_CA on 03.03.21 at 3:51 am

I have real world experience with this, and know the trends. Covid will, in my opinion since this is the future, push for service centres to move away from city centres like Toronto and into regional, cheaper cities where people are used to lower salaries.
___

The wages in places like the GTA for most workers are pretty much the same as outside the GTA. You’re not going to move most jobs from Toronto to Coburg and save anything on wages. Costs actually might go up if you have to hire the locals based on demographics alone. Then there’s those cheap Toronto property taxes.

The only real difference is the 1%’er jobs are pretty much all located in Toronto. There are so few people earning at this level, I don’t know how much can be saved via attacking this segment. Probably not much.

Looking at Toronto MHI’s, it looks like the city is doing just fine at grinding down wages for the masses, grunt and white collar worker alike. I predict GTA wages will continue to erode in whatever sectors and positions where great wages are paid – and the GTA will not need foreign remote workers to make it happen.

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 10:50 am

@#142 Sonny
“the most corrupt market on Earth.”
+++

Perhaps we could lobby the BC NDP to change the self congratulatory license plates the Gordon Campbell Liberals created for BC from “The Best Place of Earth” to your slogan?
I’d buy one.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 10:53 am

@#140 Millmech
“Japan also has four times our population and is twenty six times smaller than Canada with an average house price of around $600,000 in Tokyo, what are they doing wrong.”
+++++

They’re doing nothing wrong.
Their real estate ( and stock market) bubble burst in the early 90’s…… and hasnt recovered yet.
A harbinger of things to come here?

#150 Vic HOOD on 03.03.21 at 10:58 am

The libs and their realtor hangers on have encouraged Canadians to eat the seed grain, as if we won’t pay the price. They have stolen a generation’s potential.

#151 Keith on 03.03.21 at 11:02 am

@115 crowdedelevatorfarts

The feds are providing fifty million in funding, SOME is buying the Days Inn. Price is not disclosed. Don’t allow your eagerness to find fault get in the way of the facts.

ttps://vancouversun.com/business/vancouver-uses-federal-funds-to-buy-motel-to-create-65-units-for-homeless

#152 mike from mtl on 03.03.21 at 11:08 am

#140 millmech on 03.03.21 at 8:58 am
#129
This is starting to remind me of Japan in the eighties.
This is what happens when you have a limited amount of land to build on, we should be building higher density housing. Our politician and decision makers should be looking at our fully developed land mass and be making better choices.
Japan also has four times our population and is twenty six times smaller than Canada with an average house price of around $600,000 in Tokyo, what are they doing wrong.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Totally agree but that’d never fly here with the NIMBY lobby and the cultural 1950s fetish towards SFD.

First our residential taxes are massively favoured towards owning SFD, since we mix structure and land. Other countries that does not have to be the case. Japan allows for depreciation on structure but taxes the snot on land and transfer fees. It makes perfect sense to remove the structure after fully depreciated or worn out. We seem to have properly laws and taxes still from the 19th century where there’s unlimited farm land and only the furbearers own any sort of property.

Second we have this stupidly rigid zoning laws where outside old city centres basically residential and commercial don’t mix. Mixed-use is a dirty word here especially to the NIMBY owners, heaven forbid their 1950s bucolic suburbs get broken up.

Third, we have massive, crappy stick framed houses with super high labour costs. Why do we ‘require’ 250m2+ homes for anything other than greed and self-image?

Forth, existing land use does not automatically have to be building as high of a strata as permitted for maximum profit. Very tall buildings are not at all common for residential in Japan certainly outside Tokyo & Osaka centres. Most are low rise 4-15 storeys and SFD.

And on and on.

Yeah we could easily fix this RE mess but as we know the status quo has very powerful interests.

#153 bdwy on 03.03.21 at 11:17 am

average house price of around $600,000 in Tokyo, what are they doing wrong.
————–
no mystery there, near zero immigration, declining population. end of story.

#154 Damifino on 03.03.21 at 11:27 am

#125 Jack

Maybe it’s time to admit that the houses are more immune to any economic changes than we think? Maybe it’s time to admit that the people are not so super-extended with their debt and can still continue to pay for their mortgages? And if anything happens to the market then this will be only temporary? Waiting to see your replies
—————————————–

How have you managed to miss the point so completely in the last eight years?

A piece of residential real estate is merely one of many potential assets one could own. It comes with enormous carrying costs, is highly non-liquid and fraught with unforeseeable negatives like furnace failure, roof leaks, insect invasion, mold, tax hikes, and local criminality.

The fact that you live in it (i.e. are stuck in it) doesn’t compensate for the fact RE is difficult to monetize. In most cases, you haven’t made a dime until you sell, with several third parties taking a cut. Then you’re shopping for another “live-in investment” in a cutthroat world of blind bidding.

People who have actual, easily-liquefied wealth shy away residential real estate. They recognize that in the major urban centers of Canada, it’s a fool’s game. They rent.

#155 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 11:31 am

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 9:37 pm

But then we have the Feds and Vancouver announce they are “doing something about homelessness” by spending $50 million dollar to buy a 60 year old Motor Inn on Vancouver’s East side on Kingsway……for , eventually, 65 units of housing……..”

————

Hey, Van also paid $7M or $11M for the two condemned Sahota buildings and plan to refurbish for a cool $100M to house erratic and mentally unstable nutbars.

How’s that coming along?

#156 NoName on 03.03.21 at 11:33 am

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 10:53 am
@#140 Millmech
“Japan also has four times our population and is twenty six times smaller than Canada with an average house price of around $600,000 in Tokyo, what are they doing wrong.”
+++++

They’re doing nothing wrong.
Their real estate ( and stock market) bubble burst in the early 90’s…… and hasnt recovered yet.
A harbinger of things to come here?

Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes gradually depreciate over time, becoming completely valueless within 20 or 30 years. When someone moves out of a home or dies, the house, unlike the land it sits on, has no resale value and is typically demolished.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution

#157 bdwy on 03.03.21 at 11:36 am

#151 Keith on 03.03.21 at 11:02 am
@115 crowdedelevatorfarts

The feds are providing fifty million in funding, SOME is buying the Days Inn. Price is not disclosed

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assesment 12m

purchase price 16-18M?

the cost to keep it from quickly becoming a trashed horror show will be millions more.

so 20m for 65 units works out to only 1.23 M per typical family size of 4 ppl.

our junkies, thieves, violent criminals, and those who load up kids playgrounds with used needles deserve nothing less.

#158 Looking Up on 03.03.21 at 11:37 am

#145 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 10:32 am
#140 millmech on 03.03.21 at 8:58 am

This is what happens when you have a limited amount of land to build on, we should be building higher density housing.

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Ah, yes, that must be it, since Canada’s population density ranks 185th out of 202 countries, just slightly above the Western Sahara and Mongolia, but fully 17 spots up from Greenland at the absolute bottom.

If only we could find more land!

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I have to agree with Sail Away. 2 minutes after runway rotation on a flight heading north out of Toronto Pearson look out the window. Barren land as far as the eye can see.

#159 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 11:59 am

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.21 at 11:31 pm
#85 IHCTD9 on 03.02.21 at 6:52 pm
#80 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 6:25 pm
#75 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 6:11 pm
Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:27 pm

Much like loan sharks, ambulance lawyers, Bernie Madoff imitators and prostitutes,..
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No need to pick on prostitutes
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Apologies. Please replace with pimps.
— ———
Hey! Pimping ain’t easy!
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Speaking from experience?
____

Yep, I used to run a bordello with an Austrian theme. All the Ladies wore hot pink dirndls. Unfortunately, there just wasn’t enough business to stay open, so I sold out and moved on to collecting track layers.

#160 Calgary Rip Off on 03.03.21 at 12:23 pm

There is no solution to owning a mortgage vs. renting. Some variables may seem more comfortable, however for every positive factor there is a cost.

It seems that due to a lockdown people are not allowed to congregate in their own homes. That equals that in fact a person has no rights in their own home which is a paid prison. Such is the current state of society.

Yesterday gyms “opened up”. As such my wife and daughter are paying for a spa lady membership and are not allowed to use it.

Im quite afraid that due to this Fauci-Wuhan released pathogen, society will never recover. The reality is that its unclear what will happen post mRNA injection as there is no data past 3 months on efficacy or risks. Fortunately coworkers that have received the jab have experienced minor effects due to exposure to either the spike protein and/or the nanoparticles. Which is unclear.

Perhaps housing sales are spiking as people want to avoid cognitive dissonance. Problem is that society is dealing with a pathogen with no solution and no clarity as to why some individuals succumb and others experience no symptoms. The way to deal with situations with no solutions is to do nothing. When there is no data as to why some get sick and others dont, best to not do anything especially if there is zero long term data.

The best solution in coping with the constant onslaught of the MSM and its brainwashing and stress is religious thought. Something. Buddhism. Hinduism. Daoism. Christianity. Mormonism. Pick one. Then realize the principles and act accordingly.

#161 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 12:34 pm

#159 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 11:59 am

Yep, I used to run a bordello with an Austrian theme. All the Ladies wore hot pink dirndls. Unfortunately, there just wasn’t enough business to stay open, so I sold out and moved on to collecting track layers.

————

That’s because Austria’s oldest profession is singing, as exemplified by two of the country’s most famous people: Julie Andrews and Christopher Plummer.

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.21 at 12:37 pm

@#151 Keef

Apologies Keith.
Was focusing on the final dollar amount of approx $50 MILLION dollars to “create” 65 units for the homeless in ….oh…perhaps one, two, 4 years?
But if you want to be pedantic and niggle piggle over the break down costs ….go for it.

Last time I checked most of the mentally disturbed homeless wont or cant abide by even the simplest of rules when offered “shelter”.
So we spend another $50 MILLION to maybe, maybe clean 10% of the people out of the “Lord of the Flies Anarchy ” Parks?

Here’s an idea.
Build mental hospitals and work camp/prisons and start incarcerating them for 30, 60, 90, 300 days.

A far more effective way to deal with the rampant petty crime that has overwhelmed our cities and towns.

I’m sure the family of the elderly lady that was beaten to death in her East Van last month by some of our homeless Strathcona “campers” might agree.

Our politicians need to stop apologizing and start dealing with the issues staring them in the face.
Drug addicts steal. Lock them up into forced rehab.
Mentally disturbed people need constat monitoring and if that means incarceration….so be it.

#163 other guy in Vancouver on 03.03.21 at 12:45 pm

Serious question: if average families can’t afford average SFH’s just who is buying, and how? Really, doesn’t anyone know where the money comes from?

#164 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 1:46 pm

#163 other guy in Vancouver on 03.03.21 at 12:45 pm
Serious question: if average families can’t afford average SFH’s just who is buying, and how? Really, doesn’t anyone know where the money comes from?
____

Move up buyers who got a free ride up the RE equity ladder, multi-gen families with 5-6 incomes, white collar DINKs, 1%’ers, generational wealth recipients, BoMaD supported couples, foreign investors, domestic investors, lottery winners, businesses, crazy folks YOLO’ing it.

#165 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 2:01 pm

#161 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 12:34 pm
#159 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 11:59 am

Yep, I used to run a bordello with an Austrian theme. All the Ladies wore hot pink dirndls. Unfortunately, there just wasn’t enough business to stay open, so I sold out and moved on to collecting track layers.

————

That’s because Austria’s oldest profession is singing, as exemplified by two of the country’s most famous people: Julie Andrews and Christopher Plummer.
___

You mean to say maybe I should have had the ladies out front dancing the Viennese Waltz, and singing “Edelweiss” instead of letting them lay around slugging Schnaps all day?

#166 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 2:29 pm

#158 Looking Up on 03.03.21 at 11:37 am
#145 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 10:32 am
#140 millmech on 03.03.21 at 8:58 am

This is what happens when you have a limited amount of land to build on…
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If only we could find more land!

———–

… heading north out of Toronto Pearson look out the window. Barren land as far as the eye can see.
____

Ottawa should start giving the wastelands away for free again like they did in the mid 1800’s. Pretty soon, Starlink will allow 100Meg speeds almost anywhere, drone deliveries will change everything, like maybe getting cheapo Amazon freight right to your hood – even if you live north of Kapuskasing. Everything from groceries to chainsaws delivered cheap, almost anywhere. If Solar efficiencies ever hit 75%+ for ~2.00/watt, there’s another hurdle cleared. I’d build a wood powered truck, and a stationary gasifier to cover everything else needed to live in the middle of nowhere with zero hydro, gasoline, and heating fuel access. Sun and wood power.

There would be 100’s of thousands of people scheming up a lifestyle that would allow them to take advantage of something like this.

#167 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 4:45 pm

#166 IHCTD9 on 03.03.21 at 2:29 pm

Ottawa should start giving the wastelands away for free again like they did in the mid 1800’s. Pretty soon, Starlink will allow 100Meg speeds almost anywhere, drone deliveries will change everything, like maybe getting cheapo Amazon freight right to your hood – even if you live north of Kapuskasing. Everything from groceries to chainsaws delivered cheap, almost anywhere. If Solar efficiencies ever hit 75%+ for ~2.00/watt, there’s another hurdle cleared. I’d build a wood powered truck, and a stationary gasifier to cover everything else needed to live in the middle of nowhere with zero hydro, gasoline, and heating fuel access. Sun and wood power.

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But, but… where would you find the wood to build your house? Just like Canada’s shortage of land, I assume from current lumber prices that we also have a desperate shortage of trees.

If only we could find more trees!

#168 maurice on 03.05.21 at 10:19 am

They keep trying and trying and making up excuses every time.
No one can predict the future in social, economic, political matters. It is too complex.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/12/05/everybodys-an-expert