Feelings

“I was wondering,” writes Tom, “who sets mortgage rates?

“I have heard people say ‘the PMO / Bank of Canada / Big 5 Banks will stop interest rates hikes.’ Others say that these three have no influence at all.  So who or what actually dictates mortgage rates in Canada?”

Smart question. Fuzzy answer.

First, short-term rates (called variable because they, ah, vary) are heavily influenced by the bank prime rate, which is in turned usually dictated by the Bank of Canada benchmark rate. But not always. Banks can diddle with the cost of a VRM for marketing reasons, too (as TD & Scotia did last Friday).

Second, long-term fixed rates (unchanged during the term of a mortgage, most popularly five years) are determined by the cost of borrowing, which is a bond market thing. That’s why some banks upped their rates over the weekend, in response to last week’s big move up in the yields on five-year Government of Canada bonds. So selected mortgages got more costly (and others will follow) even though the central bank rate didn’t move a single basis point (which is one one-hundredth of a percentage point).

Third, all of this is subject to the lender’s feelings. A bank or CU can drop (or hike) rates whenever it wants – like during the spring housing silly season – to drum up more business. Lately HSBC, for example, has been ruthless in chopping its loan costs in order to build its home loan book. And there are mortgage lenders around who actually dole out money they borrowed from other lenders, so rates can vary depending on the margin they design.

As for the PMO (where Mr. Socks lives), zilch. Politicians can huff and puff all they want about the housing market, interest rates, oil prices, stock market valuations, bond yields or the weather, but they have no direct impact. Yes, they can change CMHC rules – like minimum down payments or mortgage insurance rates – as well as rules around using RRSPs as deposits or a homebuyer program, but they can’t touch the cost of money.

So, see? It took only 300 words to answer. Plus that response is only partial, since rates/bond yields are determined by the economy, inflation expectations, central bank bond-buying plus what’s going on with stocks, vaccines and (of curse) the virus. For example, lots of money can flow into bonds when yields rise to the point where investors earn a return equaling the dividends stocks pay, but with less risk. Like now, it seems…

Does this suggest equity market volatility if we’re on the path to lots of inflation as the economy reopens and the vax (especially the J&J brew) flows?

Absolutely. It’s inevitable. We’ve seen that lately. Markets toppled from all-time highs as bond yields advanced. Seasoned investors will probably see this as a buying opp, since we’re clearly on the road to big GDP gains in Q3 and 2022. As the virus fades and things reopen, higher corporate profits will drop P/E ratios, making stocks look way less expensive. (P/E represents the price of a share relative to the money that company earns. From a recent high of about 31 on the US market, it’s expected to drop down to 19, thanks to vaccines.)

Back to mortgages. Whither from here?

Yields on five-year Canadas dipped a bit after last week’s pop, but anything is possible now. The big lenders have been upping fixed-term rates and lowering VRMs, trying to keep loan volumes plumped that way. The Bank of Canada probably won’t start hiking its benchmark for a year and loan costs are still low enough to create buyer frenzy between now and the summer (when herd immunity becomes a factor and WFH starts to crumble and people shop for pants).

Best bet in a post-Covid world is still this: lock ‘er up.

Meanwhile, did you see the latest mortgage numbers? Staggering. In 2020 we had double-digit unemployment, massive government bailouts, a pandemic, recession and negative inflation rate and guess what Canadians did? Yup. We borrowed more money than in any year in a decade, increasing mortgage debt by almost 8% – the fastest pace in ten years – to $1.7 trillion. That’s $14,000 for every household in Canada that owns real estate (8.54 million). But only 551,392 houses changed hands in the nation last year. Do the math.

So, Tom, the main question is this: do you think the conditions that created the lowest mortgage rates ever in the midst of an historic economic and once-a-century public health emergency will continue, or change?

Answer that right, and you know what’s coming.

About the picture: “I am one of the many faithful blog dogs,” writes Jodie. “Thank you for your wit and sage advice. It has provided many hours of gleeful snickering. This is Cabot. He is an 11 year old Newfoundland, which considering the breed’s normal longevity is amazing. Here is he displaying his usual excitement for life. I thought this reflected how many are feeling at this juncture in the pandemic.”

109 comments ↓

#1 Rainman on 03.01.21 at 2:06 pm

I have a feeling rates will rise, but stay low for a long time. Feelings for sure…

#2 nick labixa on 03.01.21 at 2:11 pm

This virus will be w/ us for awhile so I don’t expect the rates to move very soon.

#3 TurnerNation on 03.01.21 at 2:18 pm

Latest on Economic shutdowns from our Forum Host’s prefecture.
This is not going away any time soon. SCIENCE dictates closing your business 1 hour earlier because a PCR test was run somewhere, makes sense. You will lose 5-10% of your revenue that day, sending your customers to Mcdonalds or Amazon – which never close early.

https://huddle.today/new-restriction-as-covid-19-makes-a-comeback-in-nova-scotia/
“As of 8 a.m. February 27, restaurants and bars in the area will have to close 1 hour earlier. That means they will have to stop serving food at 9 p.m. and close their doors by 10 p.m.

Social events, festivals, and special events will also be banned. Sports and cultural performances in the HRM-area won’t be allowed, although practices and rehearsals can continue with no more than 25 people present.

Weddings and funerals will still be allowed as well, but attendance will be restricted to 10 people and receptions won’t be permitted.”

….
Local CEOs calling our these anti-human Economic Shutdowns for what they are.

Globe says Cineplex CEO decries “inconsistent” rules
The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Feb. 27, edition that this weekend, movie theatres will be open across Quebec and in some parts of Ontario, including Ottawa, for the first time in months. The Globe’s Barry Hertz writes that cinemas, however, will remain completely shuttered in British Columbia, as they have been since November, all while restaurants, bars and gyms in the province have been permitted to operate the entire time. The Movie Theatre Association of Canada said in a statement: “Despite the fact that zero COVID-19 infections have been traced back to an indoor cinema screening anywhere in the world, let alone Canada, we are still among the first to close and last to reopen. Our industry is being crippled by 10 different provinces claiming to ‘follow the science.’ … We suspect this has more to do with political science than traditional medicine.” Cineplex chief executive officer Ellis Jacob says, “We have literally done everything we can to educate officials to the fact that movie going is safe, but it seems to have fallen on deaf ears.” He notes that every province and region has “created guidelines that are inconsistent with not only the facts but with each other.”


But you cannot sell or consume food there. It’s 2021 and buying food & drink at a cinema is TOO DANGEROUS.

“Quebec Premier …ordered theatres in “red” pandemic-alert zones to keep their concession stands closed because he wants moviegoers to keep their masks on throughout the duration of the films. Cineplex vice president Daniel Seguin said Cineplex planned to reopen Friday. “After five months, our goal here is to get the theatres open.” However, he said, theatres may not stay open seven days a week after spring break if the 8 p.m. curfew or the ban on concession sales continue. “We’ll have to see after spring break what makes business sense,” he said. In 2019, about a quarter of Cineplex’s revenue came from food sales.” © 2021 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#4 SoggyShorts on 03.01.21 at 2:33 pm

Hey Stone, in case you missed my question over the weekend, what was your total return in 2019?
You’re consistently ahead of me this year so I’m looking for a bigger range.
If you don’t want to say, that’s obviously fine and I’ll stop asking.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.21 at 2:36 pm

Newfie dogs dont get motivated until they are almost submerged in water and there is a stick floating 5 feet in front of them….. nirvana.

#6 Habitt on 03.01.21 at 2:56 pm

Great post. Thanks for the education again.

#7 Captain Uppa on 03.01.21 at 2:58 pm

Well, I did indeed locked’er up.

I took the 5yr fixed at 1.79% on a re-finance. I was tempted for the 10 yr fixed of 2.34% (or whatever it was, which jumped from 2.14% just a few weeks ago)

… but five years at 1.79% let’s me pay down a bulk of the principal. All in all, I’m pleased.

#8 Ian D on 03.01.21 at 2:58 pm

My spouse and I recently saved up $150,000 to invest in a home, just as people started panic buying at ridiculous prices. After pricing it out, the carrying cost of buying was equivalent to renting and so we decided to pull our energy away from buying. We were planning on putting the money into ETFs, but may have short term goals that conflict with short term volatility in the equity market. What’s the best place to put that money so that it is protected from inflation and short-term equity market volatility?

#9 Truth Trumped on 03.01.21 at 3:04 pm

Perhaps a temp blip in inflation but hardly a sustained upward… Predicting the future is difficult where using the past,,, while which past is the real question… Rates may rise but also likely to drop back down again… https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-macro-equivalent-of-war

#10 NSNG on 03.01.21 at 3:05 pm

Usually, this is the time of year the government in power starts floating trial balloons. The liberals were always particularly good at it. They always want to know what they can get away with and how much screaming their choice with our money will cause.

Maybe I have finally, effectively tuned out Canadian news but I haven’t heard many trial balloons from the government. They should be floating all over the place like WW2 era German dirigibles.

That there are few to none is troubling. I assume they are going to hit us with something we will not like and then get to the election helicopters (or six planes with entourage in Trudeau’s case). The calm before the storm.

#11 Linda on 03.01.21 at 3:11 pm

‘Cabot’ does indeed look very world weary:)

‘of curse’ the virus – LOL. Also what many have long since engaged in. About the cost of money, since the government issues our currency could they enact legislation that effectively would dictate how our so called free market mortgage rates are set? Just wondering how far they’d go & whether they could even do this. I know lots of folks think they could, but wouldn’t doing so be an economic bomb of epic proportions? Would not investors collectively pack their bags & flee?

#12 Faron on 03.01.21 at 3:12 pm

“(when herd immunity becomes a factor and WFH starts to crumble and people shop for pants)”

I propose the terms “re-opening” and “recovery” as they pertain to the end of the pandemic and associated economic frenzy combined with demise of WFH be changed to “the great pantsplosion” or “sweatpant swaperoo”. Can I get a seconder?

#13 Canadian Soldier on 03.01.21 at 3:25 pm

Great post Sir, Kevin 0’Leary just did a 180 on bitcoin. Any change from you yet?

#14 willworkforpickles on 03.01.21 at 3:31 pm

A great many are confused about interest rates, where they’re headed, even why.
I have said a number of times in the past year and more-so lately (without going into detail yet again here as to the many why’s) that interest rates will slowly rise a piddling quarter point or less here, and a piddling quarter point there in 2021.
In 2022 we could expect 2 full 1 point rises .
At some point in 2023/24 we should be approaching a return to historically normal interest rate levels again.

Many hours of research delving into the indicators that will affect rates looking past the present allows for such projections moving forward to be possible.
No need for the why’s all over again as the few who get it already do.
Many don’t seem to or actually want to know.
Not now… or when rates begin ascending further… or as the real rate increases descend on the beleaguered ill advised ill prepared masses… Them!
Those now in the game particularly (newbs)…assured rates won’t increase…they can’t…I’m in it up to my eyeballs now so rates can never go up.

…only if the clock stops ticking.

#15 Bruce on 03.01.21 at 3:43 pm

Does Garth drive an Audi?

#16 Sail Away on 03.01.21 at 3:44 pm

Holy handbags- the markets are bounding! Anybody still sitting in cash, haha?

#17 IHCTD9 on 03.01.21 at 3:59 pm

It’s times like these when I know I made the right decision getting the B&B (that’s Bunker and Bulldozers).

Soon, crazed homeowners with 7 figures worth of fresh new debt will be running the streets when they realize 1.5% could be 3.0% 5 years from now. That’s almost 900.00 extra every month on a 1.2 Mil house. 1K/month and more is totally plausible.

I left all the supplies I loaded into the bunker before the US election safely tucked away for a scenario just like this.

5 years from now, some plan to deal with Trudeau’s horrifying debt accumulation should also be on the go.

Post-Trudeau Canada is definitely not the place to be stretched to your last penny…

#18 Loonie Doctor on 03.01.21 at 4:16 pm

Took out a mortgage in December. My wife invested it in AVUV (a US small cap value ETF) in her non-registered account. She pays the mortgage and writes off the interest against her income. The dividend covers the interest and with economic recovery, there should be great capital appreciation. Once in a life-time opportunity, I think.
-LD

#19 R on 03.01.21 at 4:18 pm

Cathie Wood of Ark Invest believes the disruptive changes of innovative companies will keep any future inflation at bay. There will be “positive deflation ” created by companies providing better goods and services cheaper, and “negative deflation”, created by the older companies being disrupted selling at fire sale prices going bankrupt. Interest rates may be very low for a long time.

#20 aimlessinthecity on 03.01.21 at 4:22 pm

The ballooning of real estate sales was unbelievable in the GTA and BC before COVID… The pandemi-factor has been the opposite of what was maybe foretold on this blog this time last year with the deferrals but , ofc, now this current situation seems completely justified with hindsight.

All these fancy charts make me wonder, with all this made-up value, will housing be more or less expensive than now in, say, 3 years? When will it actually be “unbelievable”, or the house of cards get too tall? What’s going to be the wake up point, where it’s even out of reach off the PMO, and people “actually” can’t afford their homes?

#21 Sail Away on 03.01.21 at 4:25 pm

Dolce, I just want to clarify that I am indeed a big fan of Italian food. Disregarding gyros for a moment, the Costco pizza and lasagna are delectable.

That said, though, the truth of the matter is that potstickers are the world’s best food. Filipino slow-cooked pork belly is a close second.

#22 Sail Away on 03.01.21 at 4:55 pm

#18 Loonie Doctor on 03.01.21 at 4:16 pm

Took out a mortgage in December. My wife invested it in AVUV (a US small cap value ETF) in her non-registered account. She pays the mortgage and writes off the interest against her income. The dividend covers the interest and with economic recovery, there should be great capital appreciation. Once in a life-time opportunity, I think.
-LD

————–

Good move! My wife and I put together the spreadsheet and considered a cashout mortgage for exactly that but decided against adding the logistics to our simple life.

#23 Faron on 03.01.21 at 4:56 pm

#16 Sail Away on 03.01.21 at 3:44 pm

Holy handbags- the markets are bounding! Anybody still sitting in cash, haha?

I jumped the gun a touch calling wednesday’s hammer candle, turned out some vol needed to get shaken out. Option flow peeps all crying victory over the bears today. Idea is market is entering a period where declining volatility forces dealers to buy leading to a positive feedback of higher equity prices. Still a few days before all clear, but looks like we cleared the gap to reopening rah rah or the great pantsplosion (TM).

All that said, just one good day and tou should all be ignoring this mumbo jumbo and focussing on picking pants purchases promptly.

#24 Tron Light on 03.01.21 at 5:15 pm

First reading of a private members bill (C-237) took place in the House on February 22, 2021 to establish a frame work for Universal Basic Income strategy.

https://parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-2/bill/C-273/first-reading

Quebec is planning immunity passports according to the CBC: “The province also plans to introduce so-called “immunity passports” at some point, which will allow people to prove they’ve been vaccinated and make it simpler to travel and perhaps even open some sectors of the economy.

Though the program is still in the planning stages, Dubé likened it to a similar effort in 2009, when the province issued a paper record of vaccination against the H1N1 avian influenza. Only this time, it will be digital.”

Heard also in the news today that federally, Canada will consider immunity passports as well.

#25 DavidW2 on 03.01.21 at 5:15 pm

So all that to say, will equities topple or should we be putting cash reserves to work?

#26 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 5:15 pm

#72 Alex on 02.28.21 at 6:24 pm
#10 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 02.28.21 at 12:53
You should educate yourself on Total deaths in Canada and PCR testing using credible sources (no conspiracy theories) like stats Canada and FDA/CDC where you will see that more people died in 2019 compared to 2020 when an additional cause of death (covid) was addedd, and that PCR test can be positive on ANY pasto or present viral or bacterial infection. Then read a bit more about a Chinese study on 10 million people with conclusion that asymptomatic people do not transmit. Then think one more time if you will continnue to base your conclusions and what was told on mainstream media (not just about this, in generally as well). Then stop BS and blaming others for something that is in front of your nose
….
Curious as to what your non-conspiracy sources are? Because I couldn’t find anything on statscan or fda/cdc that would support your claims.

StatsCan shows excessive death from March to June of last year, then it levelled out to normal from June to Sept. Stats aren’t out yet for Oct-Dec, but since the virus kicked back up then I wouldn’t be surprised if excess deaths are up as well.

The PCR test is very specific for covid, it doesn’t cross react with other viruses.
https://www.cap.org/member-resources/articles/how-good-are-covid-19-sars-cov-2-diagnostic-pcr-tests

#27 Matt on 03.01.21 at 5:25 pm

I have to wonder how much of this mortgage debt is actually for housing. In 2020 i refinanced for far more then my house originally cost and purchased a balanced and diversified portfolio worthy of a boomer retiree (I’m a millennial) thanks to sub 2% rates my payment is less than I could rent my place and I’ve already had 6 figures of growth which paid for my 5 years of interest in a couple months. Once again this appears as mortgage debt but isn’t. I have to wonder why these days you haven’t been thumping the invest the banks money mantra as heavy as in the past, it still feels like a great time.

#28 V on 03.01.21 at 5:26 pm

fuzzy means lots of suck and lots of blow … Mr. Socks loves pirates of the carriebian.?. And Peter pan…go figure…3$ vaxs … … hey where’s the wife…..?

#29 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 5:28 pm

Alex. (Part 2)
Regarding the Chinese study regarding asymptomatic transmission….did you actually read the study?

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695

If so, how did you miss this little gem? I quote:
‘The researchers said that their findings did not show that the virus couldn’t be passed on by asymptomatic carriers, and they didn’t suggest that their findings were generalisable‘.

#30 Nixter on 03.01.21 at 5:36 pm

It is very interesting how Trudeau has called anyone who uses the term “Great Reset” is a conspiracy theorist, and he intends to just focus on helping Canadians. Those who are engaged in this Great Reset know they have the media on their side to push this Agenda 2030 forward without anyone ever having the right to vote on changing the world economy.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/trudeau-moves-to-install-guaranteed-basic-income-in-canada/

#31 Ballingsford on 03.01.21 at 5:42 pm

Cabot is a cool cat! (Sorry Felix!) Reminds me of something when I was a lad.

When I was a boy, about 13-14, I delivered a local small town newspaper and picked them up the editor/publisher’s home. He had 2 big black newfie dogs and they and I were good buddies. They were about as active as Cabot looks.

I went home one evening after delivering the papers and left the publisher’s home after dropping off the extra papers. Lived about a mile away.

A couple hours later my dad had to go outside to do something. Pretty near shit his pants when he opened the door. Thought there were 2 black bears there.

I didn’t realize that the 2 dogs had followed me home.

#32 an investor on 03.01.21 at 5:44 pm

The Biden/Kamala years will be nothing but bad news for investors. The worst is coming.

#33 Steve French on 03.01.21 at 6:11 pm

Just listened to Larry Reaugh’s latest over at Howe Street Radio’s “This Week in Money”

What the heck.. i think my brain was rotting just listening to his interview. Old Larry has been locked down in his basement a bit too long, because he’s totally gone off the deep end.

A sample of his questions on his “investment” show to his conspiracy-theory peddling guest.

– Why is Bill Gates trying to form a 1 world goverrment?
– How much fraud is there in Canadian municipal elections?
– Is Canada running out of food?
– Was Covid created by the world elites to manipulate the stock market?
– When should Canadians start to flee the country?

What in the world is he going on about?

This guy makes Smoking Man seem like a paragon of rationality and sanity.

Howe Street Radio…. providing Canada’s dumbest investment advice, since 1992.

#34 Should get interesting on 03.01.21 at 6:12 pm

as the bond market continue’s to call bs on Powell. I think there will be more wild rides in the bond and stock markets. When do we pay the piper ?

Its Orwellian whats happening in the world now. Social media sensors every tweet and facebook post and the people are taken care of by the state with “free” money …Sound like the book 1984 to you ?

#35 Not Stone on 03.01.21 at 6:20 pm

8.25% YTD

#36 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 6:25 pm

#26 Sheesh

No date on the article you linked. The references cited in the article are out of date.

You have some homework to do.

Look up “Corman-Drosten Paper” for starters.

#37 Brian Ripley on 03.01.21 at 6:27 pm

My Earnings charts are up with the latest data (DEC, 2 months lag):
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Among the various charts is a table of the drop in earnings since their peaks:

Peak Date AND Drop Since Peak

MAY 2020 BC -1.1%
MAY 2020 QC -1.9%
MAY 2020 ON -2.1%
MAY 2020 CAN -2.4%
APR 2020 NB -2.6%
MAY 2020 MB -3.1%
MAY 2020 AB -4.5%
MAY 2020 SK -5.1%
JUN 2020 PEI -5.3%
MAY 2020 NFL -5.4%
MAY 2020 NS -6.4%

Banking on inflated real estate valuations while earnings are ticking down seems risky to me.

Although I guess appraisers do it every day.

I doubt if margin clerks are as accommodating.

#38 Stone on 03.01.21 at 6:27 pm

#4 SoggyShorts on 03.01.21 at 2:33 pm
Hey Stone, in case you missed my question over the weekend, what was your total return in 2019?
You’re consistently ahead of me this year so I’m looking for a bigger range.
If you don’t want to say, that’s obviously fine and I’ll stop asking.

———

I didn’t see your weekend question. 8.54% for 2019. Not proud that I tried to market time something and it blew up in my face making me miss out 3-4% of extra return for that year. Good lesson learned though as I don’t do that anymore and that thinking paid off nicely in 2020. 6.38% YTD for 2021.

#39 TurnerNation on 03.01.21 at 6:33 pm

This weblog states that pandemics are temporary. Ok. I mean I do not know a single soul affected during this Global Pandemic. Maybe it’s just my circles. Let’s agree then, it is temporary.

But why then a year later are all the Former First World Countries being subject to compliance lockdowns, rotating Economic lockdowns? What is going on behind the scenes, what is being cooked up?

1. UBI. Yes. Kanada appears to be a test bed for this.

2. Travel bans. Quarrantine kamps are brand new This type of technology and software, any software people here? Can you really conceive of it; plan, develop, implement, test, rollout globally within the span of only these few months? Or look up: ID2020.org and Covi-pass.

Today’s headlines – designed to get inside your head – proving my point – this will be dragged on as all the background takes place.

-All our recent progress with Covid-19 could be wiped out by variants, CDC director says. ‘Please stay strong'(cnn.com)

– CDC director warns “now is not the time” to lift COVID restrictions (axios.com)

-Brazil virus variant found to evade natural immunity” (Financial Times)

-EU to propose vaccine certificates in time for summer holidays (reuters.com)

-CDC chief warns of ‘potential fourth surge’ and urges US to keep the new normal (theguardian.com)

…..

In the New World Order people are literally begging for their own enslavement. Weld our doors shut!
This sounds…deadly…new variants. The people affected are isolating at home. Wow.
They ‘believe’ more cases are out there? I mean how can someone not know they are sick, when they healthy.
Better shut down the province over this. Shut down that economy and keep it shut.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/confirmed-cases-of-new-covid-19-variant-in-canada-are-unsurprising-experts-say-1.5245376
“Ontario’s Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, announced Saturday that there are two confirmed cases of the coronavirus variant in Durham region. The patients who tested positive are a couple, now in self-isolation.”
“The PHAC said in a statement Saturday that they believe there are more cases out there.”

………
Never forget the overarching goals . And that is control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements/Travel. The mainstream media sell job is on:

“How Humans Eating Insects Could Help Save the PlanetNews (time.com)”

#40 Dolce Vita on 03.01.21 at 6:35 pm

#21 Sail Away

Bravo on the cucina Italiana. Come visit and I will take you to Napoli pizzerie. You will never eat N. American pizza again, ever, never. It’s in the ingredients, fresh and from Italia (not canned tomatoes, nor your gummy Cdn/US flour and whatever it is they try to pass off as mozzarella).

As for Asian cuisine you are on your own. By the way, potstickers or dumplings are called:

“Ravioli Cinesi”

in Italia.

I prefer ravioli, more imaginative in ingredients and taste and no oil frying needed. Better for you.

#41 Bloff Witzer You're in the sitatation cloakroom on 03.01.21 at 6:38 pm

Not today’s topic but recent events and predictions and how they are working out

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-roaringkitty/roaring-kitty-no-longer-has-financial-broker-license-filing-idUSKCN2AT3OX

#42 Bill on 03.01.21 at 6:43 pm

DELETED

#43 Russ on 03.01.21 at 6:49 pm

Ha!

Rules for all or rules for some?

And a few little cottagers think they have it tough on the weekends.

The Quebecers are here for a couple o’ weeks.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/quebec-skiers-1.5931510

#44 Nonplused on 03.01.21 at 6:50 pm

#12 Faron on 03.01.21 at 3:12 pm
“(when herd immunity becomes a factor and WFH starts to crumble and people shop for pants)”

I propose the terms “re-opening” and “recovery” as they pertain to the end of the pandemic and associated economic frenzy combined with demise of WFH be changed to “the great pantsplosion” or “sweatpant swaperoo”. Can I get a seconder?

——————————-

My pants are in fine shape. I may (ok, will) need to get them let out. It is my sweatpants that are worn out and need replacing.

Therefore I propose the term “the great let-out”. That’s sort of like “the great pantsplosion” but different visuals.

#45 Stone on 03.01.21 at 6:54 pm

#35 Not Stone on 03.01.21 at 6:20 pm
8.25% YTD

———

Impressive! I have a groupie. Thanks.

#46 Dolce Vita on 03.01.21 at 6:55 pm

#21 Sail Away

PS:

On the ravioli, I mean ours not those in Canada or the canned American abomination Chef Boyardee. If you would like something larger than ravioli try:

Tortelli.

At their best in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italia’s culinary heartland, Bologna at its heart) and if you like fish, well in Rimini there is this place that will send you to heaven with their Tortelli seafood stuffings (across the street from Club House Rimini and no worries, a few minutes away is the Rose & Crown Pub to wash it all down after…oh ya, great beach town).

I make both ravioli and tortelli from scratch at home here in Italia.

Da morire.

#47 Tom from Mississauga on 03.01.21 at 6:56 pm

Certainly Garth and his colleagues have been vindicated on DXP with the rise in bond market rates. This being another told you so post for clients that annoyed them endlessly.

#48 vanreal on 03.01.21 at 7:03 pm

So I did the math and it looks like it works out to an increase of 250,000 dollars in debt for those 551,000 houses. Yikes!

#49 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 7:05 pm

Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 6:25 pm
#26 Sheesh

No date on the article you linked. The references cited in the article are out of date.

You have some homework to do.

Look up “Corman-Drosten Paper” for starters.
….
And the rebuttal from one of the authors of that paper. It’s on Twitter, but she shares several links that validate the use of the pcr test and is broken down into easily digestable chunks for all us non-experts.

https://mobile.twitter.com/marionkoopmans/status/1333002771738611712?lang=en

There’s also this from the fda dated dec 2020.
https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download

#50 Bill on 03.01.21 at 7:09 pm

DELETED. Tine for you to go. – Garth

#51 [email protected] on 03.01.21 at 7:13 pm

Try and preserve your fortunes because Gamestop, the Variant, Barbara Streisand and Adele.

#52 mike from mtl on 03.01.21 at 7:26 pm

#26 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 5:15 pm

The PCR test is very specific for covid, it doesn’t cross react with other viruses.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Sort of true however, they can be misused to find anything and don’t really accurately the most important factor – is the infection ‘live’. That’s where it is hard to place a threshold. The UK only recently started a study of just that, for now SarsV2 transmissibility is all speculation.

Even here in QC, the 2020 deaths in excess were indeed up, slightly in Mar-Jun but nothing like the catastrophic projections. Those unfortunately were entirely due to stupid mistakes, NYC and other locations did exactly the same. Obviously folks dying is not good, but not even close to the wild 10-100x worse than Influenza hype.

If SarsV2 is so infectious as touted, it should be all over your face and hands.

Swab any random surface in your house or car and extremely likely find wonderful bugs like Fecal coliform, Salmonella, etc. Should that be a worry? The concentration is what matters, no matter how clean you think a surface is or your hands, they’re not. Looking for a single bacterium or RNA strand or two is not helpful.

#53 Nonplused on 03.01.21 at 7:33 pm

#19 R on 03.01.21 at 4:18 pm
Cathie Wood of Ark Invest believes the disruptive changes of innovative companies will keep any future inflation at bay. There will be “positive deflation ” created by companies providing better goods and services cheaper, and “negative deflation”, created by the older companies being disrupted selling at fire sale prices going bankrupt. Interest rates may be very low for a long time.

——————————–

Technology always causes deflation (as defined by lower prices). Just look at what has happened to the cost of a personal computer over the last 30 years as compared to what you get. But inflation numbers don’t account for the fact you need a new one and a new cell phone too for every member of the household every 3 years. Then they make hedonic adjustments, say to the price of cars because they now have air bags and antilock brakes, so you aren’t really paying more for what you get. Only you are.

If we define deflation as “a lower cost of living compared to wages” that ain’t going to happen. The cost of living has not gone down compared to wages since the 60’s.

In fact, inflation has been so bad in Canada over the last 10 years that my 10 year old truck is still worth 50% of what I paid for it. Mind you it is a diesel with low miles, but the main factor has been that the price of a new similarly equipped model has ripped ahead by 43% in that same period. A good part of that increase is attributable to the Canadian dollar collapsing from parity to $0.70 USD, but you still got to pay it if you want one. So the farmers and tradesmen that need one see the new $100,000 price tag (may as well get the leather seats because you can’t afford to also own a car) their eyes start to bleed. So if a clean used truck like mine hits the lot it is usually sold before you’ve finished signing it over. Sometimes they sell sight unseen. At least once a year the dealer I bought it from sends me an appraisal asking me to trade it in. But of course they are assuming that after 10 years maybe I’m willing to drop $100,000 (minus $35,000 for the trade in) on a new one. I’m not.

So the CPI, while I think is directionally useful, does not capture the realities of life. Inflation causes all kinds of unmeasured reactions. People keep their cars longer, for example. Not only does this reduce economic growth, but it causes a shortage of used cars that lower income earners depend on, and thus higher prices for those who can least afford it.

And computers and phones are even worse, because even if there were people interested in used computers they don’t work anymore by design. I actually have a whole drawer full of old phones and a whole box of used computers that are functionally sound but the software doesn’t work anymore. My wife has actually built a security system out of old phones. There is software available for doing this. If the battery is ok, it will even continue to capture images for a while if the power is out. But this is not the same thing as a new Lorex security system becoming less expensive. It is more a sign that most people just can’t keep up.

#54 Faron on 03.01.21 at 7:44 pm

#52 mike from mtl on 03.01.21 at 7:26 pm

#26 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 5:15 pm

Mike, I invite you to go find a harried PCR operator running tests or anyone who actually does the work and tell them it’s all BS. You don’t know 1% of anything yet you have this whole “testing scam/conspiracy” figured out. Seriously dude. Acceptable for anyone years 16 and under. If you are older than that, get a life.

#55 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 7:49 pm

Job#1 (part 2)

This link goes into more detail dissecting that review paper that’s got covid deniers all a flutter.
http://www.integralworld.net/visser194.html

#56 Doug in London on 03.01.21 at 8:06 pm

@DavidW2, post #25:
The time to put your cash to work was in the middle of March last year, when equities were on sale.

#57 Linda on 03.01.21 at 8:12 pm

I did a quick Google search asking if any government had ever legislated mortgage rates. Maybe I need to phrase the query a different way, but all I got back was essentially what GT has been saying about how mortgage rates are set. I did get a bit about what legal rates of interest are in Canada but a nothing burger for governments determining mortgage rates. So yes, seems like those thinking our government can do this are indeed snorting hopium.

Meanwhile, looks like those with B&D portfolios can expect many happy returns:)

#58 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 8:17 pm

#49 Sheesh

This from your FDA link:

“The SARS-CoV-2 RNA is generally detectable in respiratory specimens during the ACUTE phase of infection. Positive results are indicative of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA; clinical correlation with patient history and other diagnostic information IS NECESSARY to determine patient infection status. Positive results do NOT rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected MAY NOT BE the definite cause of disease.”

With respect to excess deaths, they are not categorized according to cause. Do you imply that all excess deaths are due to covid? Can you quantify how many are?

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.21 at 8:21 pm

@#53 IHCTD9
“But this is not the same thing as a new Lorex security system becoming less expensive. It is more a sign that most people just can’t keep up.”

++++

I installed a hardwired Lorex system at my company about 8 months ago.
Excellent system if a Luddutie like me can figure it out.
Great day and night video, great still pics, real time internet phone access…. love it.
I watched the next door neighbor install his wireless, battery operated cameras last year and thought ” How long will those batts last in the winter?”….
About 2 months if you’re lucky.

As for buying and hanging on to quality stuff.
been doing it for years.
My last Toyota was 25 years old when I sold it and its still running…..10 years later.
No computers, no chips, just an old gassy, carbureted, simple, dinosaur…like me.

#60 Flop... on 03.01.21 at 8:38 pm

#126 Bdwy on 03.01.21 at 11:28 am
All I will say about this one is for East Vancouver it does have a great location

………..
across from the park is nice, could be closer to the nice part of the drive and the street is busy not quiet….BUT… the skytrain running along the backyard every few minutes? Hope the buyers are deaf .

I hear the damn thing and im a mile away

////////////////////////////////////////

Hey Broadway, yeah I think I remember you complaining about the skytrain before and I mentioned that I’m probably over 3 kilometres away and still hear the squeal at night.

This deal got be just a puzzle piece in a bigger picture, I don’t even think they can duplex there way out of it.

2.6 for the house, one million for each separate duplex of two brings it up to 4.6, lets just round it up to 5 million because it’s Vancouver, and that would be shoestring fries for dinner.

2 million for the front unit, 1.75 for the two middle ones and 1.5 for the back brings in 7 million if the wind blew in the right direction.

Spend 5 to get 7.

Still think there is a bigger picture so we will probably be revisiting this one in the near future.

Just thought of something, maybe that squealing in the middle of the night is my wife telling me to stop rolling on top of her…

M46BC

#61 Keith on 03.01.21 at 8:47 pm

@39 Turner Nation

In my medium circle of friends, one covid case (68 year old woman, recovered). Wider circle, one case of a thirty something stonemason had a pretty miserable week, then a second lousy week, took about a month to feel right again.

Colleague working for multinational in Philadelphia, mid fifties in perfect health went into the hospital Christmas day. He’s been in the ICU for sixty days, on a ventilator with a terrifying set of complications, currently a candidate for a lung transplant. Found out when his GoFundMe page showed up on my Facebook feed. Complications included temporary paralysis, infections etc.

I suspect there have been a lot of asymptomatic infections, and the monday morning quarterbacking on how this could/should have been handled will go on for years. The circumstances of my colleague certainly hit hard for me, a real bad things can happen to good people scenario.

#62 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 8:53 pm

#54 Faron, #55 Sheesh

OK, I’ll see your experts, and raise you my experts…

That rebuttal from a WHO lackey (M. Koopmans) has been superseded by WHO guidance of Jan. 2021, (look it up) where they are trying to distance themselves from their former total endorsement of PCR as the “gold Standard”.

This devolves into divorce court …he said, she said miasma. Lets see what Euro Surviellance rules on this.

Faron, your arrogance and ad hominem rudeness is astounding. You have have contributed nothing substantive to the issue but vitriol. Get a life indeed…

#63 Dr V on 03.01.21 at 9:07 pm

27 Matt

” thanks to sub 2% rates my payment is less than I could rent my place and I’ve already had 6 figures of growth which paid for my 5 years of interest in a couple months.”

So $100k = 5 X 2% so your “mortgage” is like $1M
(more or less) plus any balance that was owing.

Yes, it is still mortgage debt, as it is secured by your house and that is what the bank will take if you default.
You could be vulnerable should both stocks and RE fall. That would make me feel uncomfortable.

But best of luck.

#64 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 9:14 pm

#58 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 8:17 pm
Positive results are indicative of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA; clinical correlation with patient history and other diagnostic information IS NECESSARY to determine patient infection status. Positive results do NOT rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected MAY NOT BE the definite cause of disease.”
…..
Lol, yeah glom onto that. Let me decipher: the test has detected sars-cov-2, however the symptoms the patient has may or may not be caused by that virus. Possibly the patient has another viral infection like influenza (detectable with a different test, and yes they are still testing for the flu) or a bacterial infection, again can be determined with a culture.
It is NOT saying that any other virus or bacteria is triggering a positive result. I invite you to go to page 11 of that link for proof.

Thanks for sending me down the Corman-Drostan rabbit hole. Here’s another link about why that review is flawed.
http://www.integralworld.net/visser198.html

Re: excess deaths, from stats can – deaths are about 5% higher than would be expected without a pandemic. In the spring there were something around 8500 extra deaths, which somewhat aligns with the 7000 something registered as covid deaths. However, the covid deniers were arguing that we wouldn’t see excess deaths because people were dying WITH covid, not BECAUSE OF covid.

#65 mike from mtl on 03.01.21 at 9:26 pm

#54 Faron on 03.01.21 at 7:44 pm

Mike, I invite you to go find a harried PCR operator running tests or anyone who actually does the work and tell them it’s all BS. You don’t know 1% of anything yet you have this whole “testing scam/conspiracy” figured out.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

With due respect, those operators probably don’t have a grasp either, bottom rung. It’s an outlined procedure done by a corporation or someone more knowledgeable, they do the grunt work. A Radiographer knows exactly the parameters to get decent imaging and safely, but probably not how it electrically works or how to interpret the image nor do they need to know.

These rtPCR aren’t magic, it’s a chemical reaction. I’m not saying an overt conspiracy just throwing around junk numbers and figures I would have thought pre-2020 was the domain of realtors.

What I am saying all these figures and numbers thrown around are only as good in context. The mystery why Japan seems to be ‘doing well’ is simply they don’t test, unless the suspected symptoms don’t clear, too bad go home. India too, they have worse things to worry about. In Canada we’ve run 24M tests getting close to the the entire population.

Compared to the same time last year we’re running 4x as much testing, so it stands to reason if you’re looking for something you’ll find it, if not look harder.

#66 Faron on 03.01.21 at 10:07 pm

#62 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 8:53 pm

#54 Faron, #55 Sheesh

I’ll contribute when the topic isn’t conspiratorial, faux scientific trash that’s been kicked worthlessly around the alley for the better part of a year now. You and I both have far better things to do with our short time here on earth.

Cheers

#67 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 10:14 pm

Last one, I promise
#62 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 8:53 pm
#54 Faron, #55 Sheesh

OK, I’ll see your experts, and raise you my experts…

That rebuttal from a WHO lackey (M. Koopmans) has been superseded by WHO guidance of Jan. 2021, (look it up) where they are trying to distance themselves from their former total endorsement of PCR as the “gold Standard”.
….
Your so called experts (their credentials are questionable) are not without their own agenda, considering that the claimed defects of that very first pcr test would actually cause false negatives, not false positives.

The WHO guidance is not to distance themselves from the endorsement of the test, and isn’t even connected to that review report.

Euro Surveillence has ruled, btw. Again, a grizzly dissection is in the link I posted in #64.

#68 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 10:24 pm

#64 Sheesh

I’m not a covid denier.
Based on my reading over the past year, I believe the PCR test cannot differentiate between an active infection and the remnants of previous exposure to some member of the coronavirus family.
Government relies on the results of these tests as the basis for their projections and policy decisions. I want the collective wisdom of the ENTIRE medical science community to inform these decisions, not just the unaccountable public health and “science tables” bureaucrats corralled in their ivory towers. It’s an ongoing process called peer review. Professional peers must have an avenue to voice their criticisms to keep the system honest.
The politics of public health have become toxic to the populace. How else can you explain directives for solitary isolation of asymptomatic children for two weeks? These people are demented. They are malevolent.
“Do no harm” is supposed to be be their rule.

#69 meslippery on 03.01.21 at 10:27 pm

So the lesson today looking at that graph is don’t buy the S&P 500 for dividends or 10 year bonds as both pay less than 2% Got it.

#70 Doug t on 03.01.21 at 10:41 pm

#59 fartz

TERCEL’s are tanks

#71 Keith on 03.01.21 at 10:45 pm

@ #60 Flop

The skytrain curves north towards Commercial Broadway station pretty close to the Trout Lake community center. The metal on metal sound is worse than the Anvil tune. I wouldn’t live with that noise.

I’m wondering if the buyer is looking just south to the townhouses on Porter street. This location is good, but it ain’t the Drive, main street or Fraser. Land assembly with townhouse zoning is definitely possible, the city is adding density pretty freely in this area. Four newish market rentals within a few blocks.

#72 Sheesh on 03.01.21 at 10:50 pm

So I lied.
Job#1 (part…Whatever, I’ve lost count)

From the horses mouth: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.5.2102041

tl:dr nothing burger.

#73 Two-thirds on 03.01.21 at 10:51 pm

Meanwhile in Economics Jeopardy…

Q. For $2,000, name something that emboldened some Canadians to take on new mortgage debt during the pandemic.

A. What is Government transfers?

“Canadians experienced “extraordinary changes in their economic well-being” during the pandemic as they gained thousands of dollars more from COVID-19 support payments than they lost in wages, according to new data from Statistics Canada.”

“Still, low-income earners took on the largest proportion of new mortgage debts among the five income classes, increasing 5.4 per cent from the end of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020.

“Although the pandemic greatly reduced job security for many households in 2020, lower-income earners and younger households acquired mortgage debt at a faster pace than other households as they were encouraged by dramatically reduced mortgage lending rates offered by financial institutions,” the report said.”

Source: https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberals-covid-19-benefit-programs-continue-to-outpace-wage-losses-new-statscan-data-show

Well done, Mr. Socks (slow clap). Outstanding!

#74 Zhong Guo Guy on 03.01.21 at 11:25 pm

This a good site. From Garth I get investing advice and Turner Nation I learnt they want control our food (eat bugs is coming, duh) breeding and travel. Well – no kidding. You can’t figure that out by now then your hopeless. You think this is ONLY about a contagion? No one else here says much in value. Lots of jibber jabber in this comments. There use to be some guys on here talking real things but may be they got shamed into going away. That is canada for you?

#75 westcdn on 03.02.21 at 1:31 am

I got a kick out of seniors who moved next to a hospital. Some Doctors called them coffin dodgers. When my mother was dying it was not fun. She had a stroke. I would sit outside at night for weeks near the emergency entry.

I was shocked by the number of old obese woman coming in. I think they fell and called an ambulance. It took two strong men to haul them out.

I should be at least 6 2 if my legs were not so short and 200 lbs. Even my daughters have longer legs. At least jeans are cheap for for me with a 30 inch inseam and 32/33 inch waist line. The Asians are funny with their measurements. There are lots left on the racks. At least my legs are strong and I actually run quite fast over a short distance. Still I did not like being passed by long legs and 140 lbs.

I will wait for a vaccine. Let the weak go first. My T Cells seem to be tough. I will observe safety protocols and fortunately I am not social. Typhoid Mary is not in my DNA plus I think I caught covid already – do not how I managed. The symptoms were negatable so I am not sure. A test is required.

#76 SoggyShorts on 03.02.21 at 3:35 am

#38 Stone on 03.01.21 at 6:27 pm
Thanks for sharing. I know some here give you a hard time for what may come off as bragging, but real-world benchmarks are useful imo.
It’s interesting that you learned a lesson about market timing in 2019, I didn’t learn anything that year.
I had a 100% equity cowboy PF that had results close to the S&P500 at 23.23%
Getting that my first year as a DIY investor compared to the 4 years prior where after fees my returns were almost flat made me feel invincible.
Because I was dumb I took exactly zero winnings off the table and rode it all the way down in March 2020.
That was my lesson year, hopefully, the last mean one.

Thanks to some steady as she goes advice here(thanks again Sailo and Garth) I didn’t sell-off, but I did switch from 100/0 to 80/20 before the end of the year so I missed a chunk of the recovery finishing at 4.23% for the year.
Honestly, I was just happy to get out of 2020 alive. Not because of covid, but because I thought I might have to tell the wife retirement would be postponed for a few years.

This year that 20% is dragging me down and I’m sitting at 2.75% Which is just under VGRO’s 2.79 but I’m sticking with that 20% as a volatility dampener. Last March added a Bond-villain streak in my beard and I think that’s enough grey hair for now.

#77 Jenny Hu on 03.02.21 at 4:19 am

DELETED

#78 Thebigsqueeze on 03.02.21 at 4:31 am

#27 Matt

You should read this…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/02/26/buffett-says-out-of-the-three-ways-to-go-broke-liquor-ladies-and-leverage-leverage-is-the-worst.html

#79 Dharma Bum on 03.02.21 at 7:00 am

I’m earlier than usual in the comments line up this morning.

Why?

I had to get my lazy bum up ass outta bed early ’cause I gotta drive to Ottawa for 1:30.

Why?

To view a house my other kid is putting an offer in on.

Huh?

He just bought his first house in 2018. It was a big event.
$495 K. Beautiful. Same house in Taranna woulda cost $1M at least back then.

But a Greater Fool just offered him $700K for it.

So he and the missus jauntily made their way down to the Glebe to shop for their dream neighbourhood house.

I said: “Whaddabout land transfer tax, commission, closing costs, a bigger mortgage at a higher rate, and future repairs on a 100+ year old drafty house”?

They don’t care. They don’t read Greaterfool. But they’re asking me to come look at the joint they’re planning to make an offer on for more money. To be in a cool hood.

As if I know anything.

But I know better.

I read Garth.

I’m tired.

#80 Rakiki on 03.02.21 at 7:06 am

Just locked ‘er up at 1.79 refi for 5 years, had our house in the godforsaken exurbs of Ottawa valued at $650K sight unseen by the bank. Used the cash to pay off higher interest margin loans/investment line of credit and reduced the interest cost by 1% or $4000 a year. Plus the interest is tax deductible at our marginal rate… So more like 1% real cost. Borrowing (conservatively) to invest is my favourite money hack. We’ll see in five years.

#81 earthboundmisfit on 03.02.21 at 7:46 am

What’s coming next, you ask. The third wave, thanks to Doug Ford. Late March … April lockdown. Take it to the bank.

#82 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 7:58 am

#79 Dharma Bum on 03.02.21 at 7:00 am

Re: son new house

————

Argh, too bad. I have a former co-worker friend who bought a small 1300 s.f. house on the wrong side of the tracks 20- some years ago. His wife would regularly complain about the small house in the less-desirable area and unfavourably compare their situation to that of coworkers.

John would say ‘sure, but we have no debt.’

Then his wife die of a brain aneurysm. John raised the kids as a single dad, retired at 57 and now spends the cold half of the year in Brazil with his brother’s family. Still no debt.

#83 To all the pathetic Trump supporters.... on 03.02.21 at 8:11 am

Donald and Melania secretly got vaccinated, in spite of fomenting anti-vaxx nonsense, including in the comments section on this blog.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/03/02/donald-melania-trump-got-covid-19-vaccine-in-secret-hotez-sot-newday-sot-vpx.cnn

You Trump-loving deplorables are just so dumb, so ignorant of his complete hypocrisy and lies.

Can I sell you a time-share or two with Bitcoin?

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 9:49 am

@#83 …pathetic Trump Supporters

“Donald and Melania secretly got vaccinated”

$$$$$$$

Yep.
Trump is allll about Trump.
The most successful Snake oil salesman in over 150 years.
The Book American Kompromat is quite an eye opener.
The KGB groomed him for almost 40 years.
A vain, gullible , greedy, not too bright, spoiled “useful idiot” for the Russians…….

It’s only been 1.5 months since he’s been out of office.
The charges and trials are lining up.
Get him fitted for an extra extra large orange jump suit…..

#85 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 9:55 am

#83 To all the pathetic Trump supporters….

———–

Hmmm… Trump… Trump…

Not really ringing a bell. Wasn’t he some former politician in a foreign country? Why would we care?

Another past politician in France must have done something almost as bad since he’s going to jail for a year.

#86 DavidW2 on 03.02.21 at 9:55 am

@Doug in London, post #56

Thanks. I invested the bulk of my cash back in March/April and again just before the U.S. election which has grown nicely :) I accumulated a bit more cash since then and just not sure what to do with it at this point.

#87 Sheesh on 03.02.21 at 10:27 am

#68 Job#1 on 03.01.21 at 10:24 pm
#64 Sheesh

I’m not a covid denier.
Based on my reading over the past year, I believe the PCR test cannot differentiate between an active infection and the remnants of previous exposure to some member of the coronavirus family.
…..
Unfortunately, science doesn’t care what you believe.

The actual peer reviewed evidence overwhelmingly supports the specificity of the pcr test. It does not pick up other corona viruses. What it can’t tell us is whether the person with a positive test is currently infectious, and given the potential for harm caused by uncontrolled spread, the policies have to err on the side of caution, until we find a better way to detect infectious cases.

The vast majority of global research scientists support this evidence, whether they are employed by government, private enterprise or academia. In other words they’re not all WHO/government lackeys. What you’ve apparently been reading is a common tactic to give the appearance of authentic scientific controversy, when in fact there is none.

If you’re at all interested in how to sort out good science from bad science here’s a start:

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hostility-towards-scientific-consensus-a-red-flag-identifying-a-crank-or-quack/

The book Bad Science by Ben Goldacre is also a good look into the seedy underworld of science.

If you’re only interested in the ‘science’ that supports your beliefs, then I guess never mind.

#88 Doug in London on 03.02.21 at 10:28 am

To all the pathetic Trump supporters…., post #83:
While we’re at it, maybe I can sell them some premium priced shares in Nortel Networks, Enron, Eastman Kodak, and Bre-X.

#89 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 10:38 am

#85 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 9:55 am
#83 To all the pathetic Trump supporters….

———–

Hmmm… Trump… Trump…

Not really ringing a bell. Wasn’t he some former politician in a foreign country? Why would we care?

Another past politician in France must have done something almost as bad since he’s going to jail for a year
**************************************

Since inauguration Trump has been Trudeau’s greatest diversion. Canadians are having a tough time letting it go. CBC/CTV are helpful. Who was that Sarkozy cat again?

#90 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.02.21 at 11:03 am

Anyone else notice the rise of Facebook ads by mortgage brokers openly advertising how they can help you scoot around lending rules designed to save people from themselves? Excess exuberance, anyone?

#91 Job#1 on 03.02.21 at 11:06 am

#87 Sheesh

Your own words:

“What it can’t tell us is whether the person with a positive test is currently infectious…”

Inescapable conclusion: case numbers, based solely on positive PCR result, without clinical assessment of symptoms and history, used to determine public health policy and projections, are unreliable. Garbage in, garbage out. Care to comment on the inverse relationship between Cycle Thresholds and probability of active infections?

When your “caution” involves locking up healthy people, especially children, without acknowledgement of, or due regard for collateral damage, you have failed to “do no harm”.

#92 Don Guillermo on 03.02.21 at 11:14 am

#90 Rogerhomeinspector on 03.02.21 at 11:03 am
Anyone else notice the rise of Facebook ads by mortgage brokers openly advertising how they can help you scoot around lending rules designed to save people from themselves? Excess exuberance, anyone?
****************************************
The adds are targeted to your searches

#93 Guelph Guru on 03.02.21 at 11:41 am

My amateur 2 cents on the bond market:
Inflation drives the bond market.
Investors now demand more to buy our bonds to counter inflation.
So option 1: Buy bonds ourselves and cause more inflation. Not sustainable for long.
Option 2: Let interest on bonds rise. Happening now inspite of Govt bond purchase. Imagine what would be the rate if the Govt stops buying.
The CB is in a precarious situation. Allow inflation or to let interest rates rise which will trigger a RE correction.
The balance is crucial to avoid hyper inflation or RE crash. Hope our CB gets it right.
Personally, I am nearly rid of all cash and LT bonds. Have been investing in Value since March. Have done well so far.

#94 NSNG on 03.02.21 at 11:57 am

#44 Nonplused on 03.01.21 at 6:50 pm

#12 Faron on 03.01.21 at 3:12 pm
“(when herd immunity becomes a factor and WFH starts to crumble and people shop for pants)”

I propose the terms “re-opening” and “recovery” as they pertain to the end of the pandemic and associated economic frenzy combined with demise of WFH be changed to “the great pantsplosion” or “sweatpant swaperoo”. Can I get a seconder?

——————————-

My pants are in fine shape. I may (ok, will) need to get them let out. It is my sweatpants that are worn out and need replacing.

Therefore I propose the term “the great let-out”. That’s sort of like “the great pantsplosion” but different visuals.

The problem with a pants recovery is that it can always only happen one leg up at a time.

#95 WTF on 03.02.21 at 12:31 pm

Great Dog Song

https://countryfancast.com/maggies-song/#!

#96 KLNR on 03.02.21 at 12:44 pm

@#83 To all the pathetic Trump supporters…. on 03.02.21 at 8:11 am
Donald and Melania secretly got vaccinated, in spite of fomenting anti-vaxx nonsense, including in the comments section on this blog.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/03/02/donald-melania-trump-got-covid-19-vaccine-in-secret-hotez-sot-newday-sot-vpx.cnn

You Trump-loving deplorables are just so dumb, so ignorant of his complete hypocrisy and lies.

Can I sell you a time-share or two with Bitcoin?

as pathetic as they are,
maybe stop beating on that dead horse.

#97 Faron on 03.02.21 at 1:08 pm

#94 NSNG on 03.02.21 at 11:57 am

#44 Nonplused on 03.01.21 at 6:50 pm

#12 Faron on 03.01.21 at 3:12 pm

Ha, boom! Well done. We won’t consider a pantsless recovery :-/

#98 The West on 03.02.21 at 1:13 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz

It is incredible to me how ridiculous the Institutionalized Left has become in the western world. Craig Unger is an establishment stooge who works for the White Shoe Boys (the Mayflower Club) in Boston. Ohhhh – he’s taking shots at Donald Trump?? I mean, the Clinton Foundation has a lot of money, right?

Trump is not a good man, he is not good leader, by any measurable metric he has failed to deliver on anything he promised. He built a cult of personality around the desperation of the American working class who is growing viciously angry at the globalist agenda (the European Aristocracy the Founding Fathers threw off their backs at the end of the 18th century).

There can be no doubt the KGB pursued a subversive agenda against the western world during the cold war – and the CIA did the same to them. The litany of KGB “soft encroachments” are there to be studied and so is the CIA’s “automobiles, washing machines and rock n roll”.

But, take some thought into this: we have to stop blaming the “rise of Trump” on foreign entanglement or racism, or chauvinism – get real man. The Establishment of the western world is systemically destroying the middle class, subverting our biological design and snuffing the brains of the young.

Has it become too much to believe that our own rulers (no, they’re not the ones you think you elected – and the relentless MSM war against Harper and Trump prove that) have turned on us? Or is there a convenient boogeyman hiding behind every corner?

I fully realize we are doomed because we won’t see what is going on right in front of our eyes. We’re too far gone. Consume your own greed, it’s good for you. Don’t look inward, the Establishment knows just how to keep your intuition turned off.

War is peace
Ignorance is strength
Freedom is slavery

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 2:07 pm

@#98 the Weird
“Has it become too much to believe that our own rulers (no, they’re not the ones you think you elected – and the relentless MSM war against Harper and Trump prove that) have turned on us? ”

++++

I’d say the endless internet paranoid raving from every lunatic fringe and soapbox has a lot more to do with the demise of our democratic process than a cabal of anonymous billionaire Satan worshippers that cannibalism children ….

But thats just me.

#100 Sara on 03.02.21 at 2:33 pm

#85 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 9:55 am
#83 To all the pathetic Trump supporters….

———–

Hmmm… Trump… Trump…

Not really ringing a bell. Wasn’t he some former politician in a foreign country? Why would we care?

——————————–

LOL. You voted for him but can’t remember him?

#101 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 3:30 pm

#100 Sara on 03.02.21 at 2:33 pm
#85 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 9:55 am

Hmmm… Trump… Trump…

Not really ringing a bell. Wasn’t he some former politician in a foreign country? Why would we care?

———-

LOL. You voted for him but can’t remember him?

———-

Wrong.

I thought you paid closer attention to me. Following post from September 30 after the first debate:

********

#65 Sail Away on 09.30.20 at 6:13 pm

What jackasses. My absentee vote goes to neither.

********

#102 Sara on 03.02.21 at 4:26 pm

#101

OK, so you didn’t vote at all, but you did support Trump in your comments. It means you are who I think you are.

#103 Sail Away on 03.02.21 at 5:13 pm

#102 Sara on 03.02.21 at 4:26 pm

OK, so you didn’t vote at all, but you did support Trump in your comments. It means you are who I think you are.

———

So tolerance is reserved for those who agree with your political opinion?

#104 Sara on 03.02.21 at 8:21 pm

#103 There you go, deflecting again.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.21 at 9:46 pm

@#104

Nah.
He’s just stating the obvious.
:)

#106 Vince on 03.03.21 at 12:09 am

Would you lock down 10 year fixed money? Even with the premium over a variable or 5 year fixed rates?

#107 Sara on 03.03.21 at 10:14 am

#105 No one was talking to you. :)

#108 Sail Away on 03.03.21 at 11:37 am

#107 Sara on 03.03.21 at 10:14 am

#105 No one was talking to you. :)

———–

S, by default when you post to a blog, you are speaking to everyone on the blog. Or did you think you and I were enjoying a private tete a tete?

It’s probably at least a menage a mille.

#109 Sara on 03.03.21 at 2:32 pm

#108, Engaging with one a-hole at a time on this blog is plenty. Predictably CEF feels the need to butt in. Can’t help himself I guess.