The last gasp?

Pete and Julie called to ask if they should list their Mississauga detached house (after eight years) this summer. “I figure it’s worth about $1.6 million now,” he says. “We can hardly believe it and, man, we sure need the money.” Covid stole Pete’s food importing business. No surprise since three-quarters of his clients were restaurants. Now all closed. Julie only works half-time these days in the office at the dental clinic.

“So,” he queried,” is this a good plan?”

No, I said. List now.

It’s becoming evident the market cannot sustain its velocity. Things are too nuts. The world is changing too fast. Even our vastly out-of-touch and wooden central bank boss, Tiff Macklem, is starting to get it. Here’s what he said yesterday: “We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolative expectations,” he said. “That’s when homebuyers believe that past strength will carry on indefinitely.” You bet. However he then added: “but we’re a long way from where we were say in 2016, 2017 when things were really hot.”

Really, Tiff?

Let’s review recent detached home sales in Toronto, for example (and things are even more torrid in Woodstock, ON, Kelowna, Oshawa or Halifax). This chart from Scott Ingram, account and property guru, clearly shows the volume of properties selling for over the asking price in 2021 is running neck-and-neck with the insanity of 2017 – that brought down emergency government action.

We’re doing a GoFundMe page for the Tiffer so he can get some new glasses. Are you in?

And, yikes, are you watching what’s going on in the steamy bond market?

Traders are dumping debt because they smell inflation. That’s jacking yields and ensuring mortgage increases are closer at hand. There’s no mystery why this is happening. Commodity prices are shooting higher (there’s serious talk of oil at $100 again); we’re on the precipice of a major inflow of vaccine and mass inoculations (the US has now romped far ahead of schedule); the Biden White House will soon have a $2 trillion Covid stimulus package in place; the infections/deaths/hospitalizations have plunged across North America; over 70% of US companies are beating earnings estimates so far this season; when it comes to profits our banks are crushing it; demand for borrowing has hit a crescendo.

All these reasons combine to deliver this…

The bond market sees what’s coming…

That’s what five-year Government of Canada bonds are doing at the moment. The yield has almost doubled so far this year- and it’s still February. The same is happening with long US Treasuries, where a tripling is within sight. (Inflation and rising rates are one reason tech stocks got thumped recently and poor Tesla was road kill.) All this means it really doesn’t matter if the Bank of Canada says its key lending rate will stay low for the next two years, because the bond market has already rung the bell. Up she goes. Canadian fixed-rate mortgages are not set by the CB but rather by the commercial market, so increases seem inevitable. As we told you, the days of 1.5% (or less) five-year home loans are doomed.

Some smaller lenders have already started to swell their rates. “Others are threatening to hike rates imminently,” says mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister. “There’s still no sign of increases from the big guns (major banks), but if this yield climb persists, it’s just a matter of time.”

And there’s one more chart the Pete and Julie need to consider. It plots the extent of house lust in our nation, showing conclusively that the Boom of ’21 is far more dangerous than that of ’17 because families are chowing down on record debt at rates we now know are destined to rise. Ouch.

…while Canadians chow down epic mortgage debt

During a time of global pandemic, recession, double-digit unemployment and no inflation Canadians added almost 8% to overall mortgage debt. Between home loans and LOCs we now owe $1.97 trillion, equal to the entire Canadian economy. It’s the fastest rate of debt accumulation in a decade, and the first time ever we embraced over $100 billion in a single year in fresh household debt.

This is why Peter and Julie can probably get $1.6 million. Now. Most people will never read the 700 words above. They think houses will go up forever because rates can’t rise. They see swelling prices. They get FOMO. They panic buy. How can you blame them? It’s a cash cow.

But don’t feed it. Milk it.

153 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 02.24.21 at 2:32 pm

This is why I’m not a Financial advisor/adviser.

I would tell clients, prospective clients: “Look the market will go up, down and sideways”

“When you call me asking ‘Why is the markets going down’, my answer to you will be ‘Because it went up'”

Sign here.

The Purges of elected reps continues. 2 dozen sanctioned or kicked out in January country wide, the holiday travel we were told? Purges are de rigueur in Communistic Systems. Don’t act surprised.

“Local Councillor in Ontario Stripped of Titles for Joining a Facebook Group Called End the Lockdowns (kitchener.ctvnews.ca)

— TWO more weeks, again! Nope these are permanent Rolling Economic Lockdowns at this point.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2021/02/tory-determined-toronto-come-out-lockdown-two-week/
“Toronto mayor says he’s determined to see lockdown end after two-week extension”

— Like Cattle. And there’s ton of money in this. Big Tech, Big Pharma. This global rollout is NOT going away soon.

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-electronic-bracelets-to-be-put-on-people-entering-israel-1001361870
“People who test negative for Covid on entering Israel will have an option of isolating at home with an electronic bracelet instead of in a hotel.”

…..

So why the Economic Shutdowns in all the Former First World Countries? The New System folks, all planned and SLOW but steady rollout so as not to alarm. Well all protest gatherings are Banned anyway, funny how this worked out. March 2020 the Old System was shut down. Nothing has since been the same. UBI UBI UBI:

https://twitter.com/JulieDzerowicz/status/1364240562770051072
@JulieDzerowicz It’s official – I’ve now tabled ’s first-ever legislation on a #GuaranteedBasicIncome in
@HoCChamber Now the hard work begins to get Bill #C273 through the House of Commons with support from all sides! #cdnpoli

#2 Westcoaster on 02.24.21 at 2:37 pm

Haha the tiff go fund me

#3 Love_The_Cottage on 02.24.21 at 2:37 pm

“Covid stole Pete’s food importing business. No surprise since three-quarters of his clients were restaurants. Now all closed.”
________
I’m ordering pick up and take out from Mississauga restaurants every week and have been since this started. Have some closed? Sure? 25%? Maybe? All? Clearly not.

#4 tbone on 02.24.21 at 2:38 pm

1.6 in Mississauga , lol , who would of thought .

#5 Grunt on 02.24.21 at 2:41 pm

” wooden central bank boss…” Hilarious but true.

#6 EG on 02.24.21 at 2:46 pm

The 1918 pandemic begat the roaring twenties . Will history repeat ?

#7 mj on 02.24.21 at 2:53 pm

great post today Garth. What about people with a variable mortgage. Would this effect them, or do you think Tiff will stick with 2023 for increasing the overnight rate

#8 binky barnes on 02.24.21 at 2:53 pm

The big man will solve this housing mess. Just you watch. At the moment he is busy getting Canadians vaccines in record-setting numbers. But once he gets a spare moment he will sink his teeth into this housing situation and then….volia! Fixed. That is what our PM does. He fixes messes.

BB

#9 Leftover on 02.24.21 at 2:56 pm

Three cheers for the bond market, masters of the universe once again.

In the meantime, all the 1%er’s who cashed out now and will take their time with a couple of $million to find a new place to live, not all things are created equal in our fine country.

For example, here’s what $1.799 gets you just west of Montreal:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22397353/28-boul-du-domaine-notre-dame-de-l%C3%AEle-perrot

…and here’s what $1.899 scores in Vancouver:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22810974/4690-w-9th-avenue-vancouver

La Belle Province, n’est pas?

#10 Comments! on 02.24.21 at 2:57 pm

Why is there this preponderance to look at 2017 and 2020/21 as the only problematic years in Canada’s real estate debacle? Were house prices reasonable all other years since 2005?

Canada, the housing superpower!

#11 Richard L on 02.24.21 at 2:58 pm

I have significant concerns about Mr Macklem –

If he really believes that (effectively) zero interest rates can be maintained with no negative effect on the economy then he lacks the intelligence for his position;

Alternatively, if he is aware of the future negative impacts of the interest rate policy but chooses to pursue it – this is unethical coduct to say the least.

#12 westcdn on 02.24.21 at 2:59 pm

I am hoping to renew a fifer mortgage in December. If I can renew a at lower rate, great. If not so sad, too bad. I will wait to see and decide.

My stocks continue to rock. I will sell some to reduce debt but with interest rates so low I am in no hurry. I just don’t want to sell when forced by a heartless banker.

What I can advise – keep your head up. There are good people out there, hard to find – listen.

Today has been another good day. Mind you I have lost $40k in a day, March 2020 was cruel.

#13 Father's Daughter on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm

Starting to see signs? Now that..is a good one.
I’ll happily contribute to the Go Fund Me as I have extra cash on hand from the would have been downpayment for houses that we are not going to buy. Two gems sent to me from my realtor this week

1) bungalow on the outskirts of Hamilton that has been gutted to the studs and has a tarp as a roof and no electricity. Listed for 1M and requires 100’s of thousands to be habitable. Says we can “fix it up.” Might as well pitch a tent. Even after renos, it would still an average sized bungalow on an average sized lot.

2) House in a decent (not best) neighbourhood in Burlington that sold for $300K in 2009. Renovated, but cheaply done. Now listed for $1.5M. Admits the price may be a “tad high”

Ask anyone who has sold for a big loss in Alberta in the last couple of years whether housing can ever go down.

Thankfully my landlord is still willing to subsidize my life, how generous

#14 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm

Dow hit 32,000 today.
Random length lumber at $905
House prices at extreme highs.
Debt off the charts.
Government deficits at extreme levels.
Long US Treasuries massively up.
Oil and commodities up.

something is happening here but what it is ain’t exactly clear …

#15 tbone on 02.24.21 at 3:02 pm

# 6 EG

yes , history will repeat .

Canadian banks hitting all time highs .
I own them all , see , i am diversified .

#16 Tarot Card on 02.24.21 at 3:03 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth!
I took your advice and locked in my five year mortgage 1.68 percent!
I hope your right about oil I am heavy into oil stocks
logically the green revolution is years away. Nuclear?
Have a great week.

#17 Stone on 02.24.21 at 3:06 pm

It’s becoming evident the market cannot sustain its velocity. Things are too nuts. The world is changing too fast. Even our vastly out-of-touch and wooden central bank boss, Tiff Macklem, is starting to get it. Here’s what he said yesterday: “We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolative expectations,” he said. “That’s when homebuyers believe that past strength will carry on indefinitely.” You bet. However he then added: “but we’re a long way from where we were say in 2016, 2017 when things were really hot.”

Really, Tiff?

———

Garth, didn’t you say this guy was smart when he got the Central Bank job? Looks like and sounds like a dud. Feels more like a pushover patsy.

Are you blaming me for the Bank of Canada governor? That’s new. – Garth

#18 Westcoaster on 02.24.21 at 3:10 pm

Population of grasshoppers: up, up, up
Population of ants: in decline
This will end in tears for many.

#19 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 3:11 pm

“Canadians added almost 8% to overall mortgage debt. Between home loans and LOCs we now owe $1.97 trillion, equal to the entire Canadian economy. It’s the fastest rate of debt accumulation in a decade, and the first time ever we embraced over $100 billion in a single year in fresh household debt.”

———————————————

It’s not just CDNs, it’s everyone around the world. It’s governments. It’s corporations. All highly indebted to the nines.

That is why rates cannot go up, at least not in any meaningful manner. They will find a way to suppress.

#20 Franco on 02.24.21 at 3:11 pm

For once on housing I have to agree with you, does not look good.

#21 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.24.21 at 3:12 pm

If it was any cheaper to rent in my small town, I’d consider cashing in. But I don’t see how we’d be any further ahead as rentals here are quite rare and when they do pop up, comparable to our mortgage payment.

#22 Stone on 02.24.21 at 3:16 pm

#17 Stone on 02.24.21 at 3:06 pm
It’s becoming evident the market cannot sustain its velocity. Things are too nuts. The world is changing too fast. Even our vastly out-of-touch and wooden central bank boss, Tiff Macklem, is starting to get it. Here’s what he said yesterday: “We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolative expectations,” he said. “That’s when homebuyers believe that past strength will carry on indefinitely.” You bet. However he then added: “but we’re a long way from where we were say in 2016, 2017 when things were really hot.”

Really, Tiff?

———

Garth, didn’t you say this guy was smart when he got the Central Bank job? Looks like and sounds like a dud. Feels more like a pushover patsy.

Are you blaming me for the Bank of Canada governor? That’s new. – Garth

———

It’s ok. I’ll give you a hug instead.

#23 SunShowers on 02.24.21 at 3:19 pm

Nobody can say the word “exuberance” anymore without me immediately picturing Alan Greenspan.

#24 cramar on 02.24.21 at 3:23 pm

I shudder to think of what gasoline prices will be like with $100/brl oil! Those who move to the burbs or Hamilton, Guelph, Whitby, etc., yet work in the 416 will get a rude awakening at the cost of commuting. That means houses for sale in the 905 with many trying to bail at the same time. Condos in the 416 hot again. Wash and reset. Here we go again.

#25 Phil on 02.24.21 at 3:25 pm

During my working years (now retired) there were 4 booms and busts, some more severe than others.
I and some cohorts lost jobs and houses.
Most of us recovered over time; and learned the lesson.
This is nothing new.
There is no new snow.
On a different topic: Garth can we have a rule that acronyms can be used, only after spelling it out a least once?

#26 T-Rev on 02.24.21 at 3:26 pm

@ #13 Father’s Daughter on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm

Amen on the Alberta comment. Anyone who doesn’t believe a 30pct drop can happen to you, phone an Albertan we’ll educate you.

#27 30,000 plus on 02.24.21 at 3:26 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/chairman-powell-fed-is-in-no-hurry-to-raise-interest-rates/ar-BB1dYTtt?ocid=entnewsntp Fed says it’s in no-hurry to raise interest rates

Eye the bond market, not the CBs. – Garth

#28 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 3:29 pm

Here’s what [Tiff] said yesterday: “We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolative expectations,”

————-

There are two types of people in this world:

1) Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

#29 dgb on 02.24.21 at 3:30 pm

I would donate $0.01 to tiffs ‘go fund me’ for glasses to see with …we ony need 150,000 more to contribute…why so little you ask? He can afford to buy his own …but you see, he won’t…even if we buy them for him, he will not put them on nor open his eyes…why?? because he doesn’t want to …keep your head in the sand tiff !! what you can’t or won’t see, can’t hurt you right??? WRONG!!!…this country has such a bunch of financial idiots pretending to know what they’re doing trying to run the place!!! what to do? vote them out…and then who? I suggest ‘Garth’ and every smart person he recommends!!!

#30 Keen Reader on 02.24.21 at 3:35 pm

Time to tweak the B&D portfolio? Thought ongoing NZIRP would delay the need to reduce bonds, and also worried about crazy-high valuations, thus kept more dry powder than usual. Maybe time to also increase commodities / Maple a bit. Not aiming for any grand-slam, happy just staying ahead of “real” inflation. I’ll buy on dips but may wait for larger corrections to redeploy more cash. Things may look better ahead but eventual QE tapering will likely cool off the markets.

#31 Michael Chew on 02.24.21 at 3:37 pm

Trees don’t grow into space either. If Tiff thinks houses are getting too hot…raise the damn rate.

#32 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 3:38 pm

Eye the bond market, not the CBs. – Garth

——————————-

CBs will cap yields. Rates aren’t going to rise in any
meaningful way.’

Actually the BoC is slated to throttle back on provincial bond-buying in April. But enjoy your hopium. – Garth

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.24.21 at 3:38 pm

#14 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm
Dow hit 32,000 today.
Random length lumber at $905
House prices at extreme highs.
Debt off the charts.
Government deficits at extreme levels.
Long US Treasuries massively up.
Oil and commodities up.

something is happening here but what it is ain’t exactly clear
—————————-
“There’s a Garth with a beard over there,
Telling you, you got to sell”

#34 millmech on 02.24.21 at 3:39 pm

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/

#35 Rainman on 02.24.21 at 3:41 pm

Makes sense to sell for sure, but where to go is the question. Hard to find rentals and they are expensive if you can find one. It’s a dilemma…

#36 Westcoaster on 02.24.21 at 3:41 pm

#18 Westcoaster on 02.24.21 at 3:10 pm

There are 2 of us?

#37 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 3:42 pm

More news on WFH being normalized post-pandemic:

“CBRE’s Real Estate Market Outlook suggests that downtown Toronto office vacancies will rise to 12.4 per cent up from 7.2 per cent in 2020 and 2.2 per cent in 2019. For those keeping track, that’s an increase of over 450 per cent in just two years.

With many expecting that the remote work trend will continue well past the pandemic, the city has been looking into ways to transform spaces that were previously dedicated to offices.“

Link: https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2021/02/toronto-office-vacancies-expected-rise-employees-work-from-home/

#38 Dan in Nanaimo on 02.24.21 at 3:44 pm

All complex structures – specifically debt accumulation – have the capability to devolve into disorder and, since the message being telegraphed by the FED/CB’s is that debt doesn’t matter, there really is no reason for concern. Expect interest rates to go to 0% or maybe even negative.

The massive liquidity injections by the FED/CB’s will not stop anytime soon because once they do, confidence will collapse. And we all know confidence is the only game in town. Full stop.

Welcome, my son, to the (printing/liquidity) machine. Literally.

#39 Dave on 02.24.21 at 3:46 pm

About the roaring 20s coming after the flu pandemic. This was shortly after WWI, western population, economic and manufacturing conditions now are not similar to then.

#40 Balanced and Diversified? on 02.24.21 at 3:48 pm

Thanks for your blog as always Garth!

I know you’ve always supported the B&D portfolio – what are thoughts about someone looking to retire in about 5 years? Should they sell a portion of their fixed income and move (even further) to equities or wait it out to see if the bond prices recover? Or does it even matter since the bond allocation is for yield/interest and not necessarily capital gains in which case buy more at these lower levels?

Confused
B&D

The growth in your preferreds more than compensates for a drop in the relatively small bond component (as designed). Stop trying to time things. – Garth

#41 tbone on 02.24.21 at 3:48 pm

You know you are getting old when you can identify
lines in a Buffalo Springfield song

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.24.21 at 3:49 pm

#23 SunShowers on 02.24.21 at 3:19 pm
Nobody can say the word “exuberance” anymore without me immediately picturing Alan Greenspan.
————————-
Nothing wrong with a little “exuberance”once in a while.
But when it get’s “irrational”, we have a problem.

#43 Dogman01 on 02.24.21 at 3:57 pm

#35 Rainman on 02.24.21 at 3:41 pm
#21 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.24.21 at 3:12 pm

“If it was any cheaper to rent in my small town, I’d consider cashing in. But I don’t see how we’d be any further ahead as rentals here are quite rare and when they do pop up, comparable to our mortgage payment.”

Housing in Canada is a Zero Sum Game.
– You need shelter
– Rent costs usually are close
– You can leverage Geographic arbitrage and move to Alberta
– You can “downsize” but most people end up buying a smaller nicer place at similar price
– Move Overseas?

Very few win, many get to feel “Richer than you think”
The young get crushed until\unless they get an inheritance.
Immigrants find the cost of living forces multiple jobs and multi-generation households as a permanent feature.

This is the systematic destruction of a Middle Class.

#44 Moh on 02.24.21 at 3:58 pm

Update about a New Subdivision in Brampton. Semi Purchased 2 years ago for 350k less than it is worth today. Half of the neighborhood is full of people buying assignment sale homes due to the initial purchaser cashing in on the gains. Just talked to three people on my street. The other half is empty vacant homes that are owned by some rich person somewhere.

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.24.21 at 3:59 pm

#28 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 3:29 pm
Here’s what [Tiff] said yesterday: “We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolative expectations,”

————-

There are two types of people in this world:

1) Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
————————-
Sounds like your buddy IHTC9.
He’s both of them.

#46 BlogDog123 on 02.24.21 at 4:01 pm

Try to imagine two ‘alternate realities’:

1- Pete and Julie ignore Garth and “ride it out”, hell keep the house past this summer, hope for better income somehow, someway…

2- Pete and Julie list the house now, sell/close before mid-summer. Pocket the money, ride out the low income in a rental apartment, put your stuff in storage… Hopefully flush in cash to ride this out until income replaced and vulch on the (possible) housing carnage in a few years… Invest until then if employed with excess cash flow…

Which scenario involves less pain in the short and long term. I think you have the answer. Nobody likes to pack up their things and move… But there ain’t no magic lotto ticket to solve this problem.

#47 Dogman01 on 02.24.21 at 4:02 pm

Very few win.

Well I know one winner. Friends of mine work at Suncor. Being transferred to Calgary.
Sell their Ontario Home for north of One Million

Buy this: https://calgaryhomes.ca/listing/a1060023-40236-big-hill-road-rural-rocky-view-county-alberta-t4c-1a2/

Now wait 5 years and I suspect Alberta will recover and they will be Golden

Sell High, Buy Low.

Winner!, Winner! – Chicken Dinner

#48 mike from mtl on 02.24.21 at 4:15 pm

Typical, “..I see no inflation..” CB lies. 99% of this housing mania is directly related to Government policy, ZRIP and QE. If the market was left alone rates would skyrocket and the everything bubble crash hard.

That’s not gonna happen, YCC could be next who knows?

#49 CJohnC on 02.24.21 at 4:16 pm

As you noticed, Tiff is a bit of a slow toff.

#50 TurnerNation on 02.24.21 at 4:21 pm

We need Smoking Man to help us with the Bond chart Batmans and the toes! :-(

……
In my opinion THIS is why major sites and stadiums were closed up in this Economic Shutdown, as noted 7 months ago:

“#142 TurnerNation on 08.05.20 at 11:52 pm
Save this post. I will. Toronto’s sports stadiums will remain closed until 2021. Hey they’ve banished the Blue Jays team from the country even. In 2021 they will re-open as Mass needle centers.”

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Feb. 24, edition that pharmacies, doctors and other key health care providers say they are not fully looped in on some provincial plans for COVID-19 vaccination efforts. The Globe’s Justin Hunter writes that provinces are beginning to lay the foundations for the mass inoculation campaign. Vaccination sites will include stadiums and drive-thru clinics at amusement parks…. People in professions such as massage therapy and acupuncture will be trained to deliver jabs. Cineplex has reached out to public-health authorities in all of Canada’s provinces to pitch them on using its movie theatres as vaccination sites. © 2021 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

…………

Our travel and movements….always the target since March 2020.

“Globe/CP say Air Canada told tower staffing in doubt
The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that 11 months into the COVID-19 pandemic and Canada’s aviation industry is among the hardest hit. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe says that the number of flights scheduled to land at Regina’s airport on Monday: four. “It’s almost like a ghost town,” said James Bogusz, who runs the Regina Airport Authority Mr. Bogusz said he is concerned that any comeback in air travel could be hampered in Regina by service reductions to air traffic control. Nav Canada, the non-profit body that runs the country’s civil air navigation service, is reviewing airport towers in Regina and six other small Canadian cities…… © 2021 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

……….

— Divide and conquer! The Blue Jays and Leafs have been banned from the country. The CFL football was cancelled. What more evidence do you need? Time to dismantle this post-national state.

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1364648812648804357
OPINION: It’s time to scrap the singing of ‘O Canada’ at professional sports events, columnist
@BobHepburn writes. It should be saved for occasions such as Canada Day, Remembrance Day, citizenship ceremonies and sports events involving national teams.

#51 Comments! on 02.24.21 at 4:22 pm

Oil prices definitely not being criminally manipulated.

The Beatles reuniting next week too.

#52 Don't Believe The Hype on 02.24.21 at 4:25 pm

#9 Leftover on 02.24.21 at 2:56 pm

That ‘gem’ in BC looks like a great deal!! (joke)

#53 More of the Same on 02.24.21 at 4:27 pm

The reality is that even with the super sized price increases, the Bank of Canada has already negated rate increases before their much loved statement of holding rates until 2023. As such, prices will continue their ascent to the moon.

In the same breath of saying ‘yes, we are aware of this as a potential problem,’ they note that they will not be doing anything.

This is the same language used by the BoC for a decade where there is an acknowledgment of a problem – but no political will to do anything. This same ‘bureaucratise’ language could be cut from any past interview or news release from 2009, 2015, 2018, etc.

This is as they say, more of the same – nothing to get excited about, and nothing noteworthy. This is grasping onto a straw of hope that things might change. The same with watching the 10 year treasury yield – as it can retreat at any moment, as it has every time its been used as an indicator of a changing market.

Notice how the feds and all provinces have been silent on the complete erosion of affordability? There is not even talk from those provinces that enacted a bunch of cooling measures in the past few years. Everyone loves it except renters and those trying to get into the market. And no one wants to prick the bubble, because all realize this is ‘helping’ people weather the pandemic and the wealth effect has been priced into an economic recovery.

People are wishing on a star if they think that after a decade of a housing bubble, any level of government is going to take on this current bubble meaningful – or that interest rates will increase fast enough to make a dent in the upward trajectory of prices within a few years.

Everyone will be waiting a very very long time for the market to change. Rates are going nowhere. People are already written off the optimism of the vaccine roll out. Companies will allow work from home for those that were bold enough to move without asking their employers. Prices will not crash or retreat after a 40% increase – those that did not buy once again, have missed out.

#54 SoggyShorts on 02.24.21 at 4:29 pm

#99 CJB on 02.23.21 at 10:22 pm
My wife and I have separate finances, I pay all house costs and she buys groceries. Any extras, trips, cars, etc we discuss…what’s the big deal!
******************
How do the big things work though? E.G. if you want to go on a 5-star vacation? 50/50? What if she can afford it and you can’t? separate vacas?

How does it end? What if you’ve saved enough to retire and she hasn’t?

Seems super weird to me dude.

#55 Guelph Guru on 02.24.21 at 4:29 pm

“We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance”
When the governor says this, it means that the tide has changed. He is just protecting himself, so that he can say “I told you so. I know my job.”.
So how can this play out.
Step 1: Banks suddenly become careful with loan approvals.
Step 2: All greedy sellers start listing as we see the snow melting.
Step 3: Inflation kicks in and the free cash flow suddenly starts dwindling. My grocery bill is already up. Not by 1.6% as advertised. But substantially more.
Step 4: People start going to work and have something constructive to do than look at realtor.ca.
Step 5: Buyers start becoming scarce. Crickets at open houses.
Step 6: There is a mad rush for the narrow exit and all the fat sellers are stuck holding a giant mortgage.
Step 7: A long journey to normalcy begins.
Mr. Tiff says in a press release. I had told you so.

#56 Faron on 02.24.21 at 4:30 pm

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.24.21 at 3:38 pm

#14 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm
Dow hit 32,000 today.
Random length lumber at $905
House prices at extreme highs.
Debt off the charts.
Government deficits at extreme levels.
Long US Treasuries massively up.
Oil and commodities up.

something is happening here but what it is ain’t exactly clear

Pretty much sums up a high pressure economy. If large forces meet instability, watch out. Outgrowths could include: market leap, bond market crash, inflation spike and juggler’s remorse.

#57 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 4:36 pm

GME taking off again …

#58 Piano_Man87 on 02.24.21 at 4:41 pm

Tiff Macklem is becoming a meme:

“Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says the central bank is seeing early signs that people may be purchasing homes solely because they believe prices may go up.”

Gee, dya think?

Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-monitoring-hot-housing-204858948.html

#59 Brian Ripley on 02.24.21 at 4:42 pm

“Commodity prices are shooting higher…” Garth

Yeah, but if one looks at the long term CRB chart:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb

… the CRB is back up to the 2009 low after the 2008-09 crash and is 28.3% above the 2000 high.

If there is going to be a correction in the hot housing sectors, we should see a CRB sell off and another round of deflation after this round of speculative inflation… yes?

My Canadian charts of Demograhia data are up:
http://www.chpc.biz/demographia.html

(Price / Income)
Higher numbers are less affordable:

Hong Kong CN 20.7
Vancouver BC 13
Sydney AU 11.8
Toronto ON 9.9
Los Angeles US 8.9
London UK 8.6
Montreal QC 5.6
Ottawa ON 5.2
Calgary AB 4.1
Edmonton AB 3.8

Ottawa is the new breakout object of desire in 2020.
​​

“In Canada, the difference among the six major markets Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa-Gatineau, Calgary and Edmonton was 1.5 median multiple points in 1971 and rose to 2.5 in the mid-2000s and is now (3Q 2020) 9.3, more than six times that of 1971. ​The deterioration in housing affordability represents an existential threat to the middle-income households. Higher housing costs relative to incomes are strongly correlated with higher overall costs of living and thus lower standards of living.” Quote from Demographia

This does not look to me like a prelude to inflation where more dollars chase fewer goods. It looks more like a prelude to further deflation.

“Fed Chairman Powell said Tuesday the central bank doesn’t foresee raising its benchmark fed-funds rate from near zero until three conditions have been met: Inflation has hit 2%, forecasters expect inflation to remain at that level or higher, and a range of statistics indicate the labor market is at maximum strength.

Mr. Powell has stressed in recent appearances that the economy is a long way from the Fed’s goals of full employment and sustained annual average inflation of 2%.

The Fed in August approved a change in its approach to setting interest rates by dropping its longstanding practice of pre-emptively raising them to stave off higher inflation.” https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202102249318/powell-pledges-to-maintain-feds-easy-money-policies-until-economy-recovers

Recall this:

“By the late 2020s, global short term real rates will have reached permanently negative territory. By the second half of this century, global long-term real rates will have followed.” said Paul Schmelzing, JAN 2020, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 845

Very Long term study and charts of “Real Long Term Safe Assets:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/suprasecular-decline

#60 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately my Boomer parents plan to live in their North York detached forever. They’re going to miss this golden opportunity to sell at a generational high.

#61 Faron on 02.24.21 at 4:56 pm

#57 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 4:36 pm

GME taking off again …

Yep, two days ago I relayed the info I saw from an options flow analyst that AMC and GME were about to “go”.

GME from $50 today to $180 in after hours
AMC From $7.75 yesterday to $11

There’s a lot of call buying in TSLA pushing it back up to $800. Probably a big reason it bounced off $620 yesterday.

Retail is about to get another round of stimulus checks to YOLO into some calls. Thanks Robinhood!

#62 Dolce Vita on 02.24.21 at 4:56 pm

#9 Leftover

“…and here’s what $1.899 scores in Vancouver”

= Cabanes à sucres.

———————–

Dear Canada:

“on the precipice of a major inflow of vaccine”

Don’t forget who bailed out your proverbial vax HEINIES:

European Union*.

Not the vax HOGGING, all for me none for you, USA that trickles out 168-180K doses every 2 weeks of Moderna AND GOOSE EGG from their 3 USA Pfizer plants vs. 2,850,120 doses from this week to Apr 4th from Pfizer Belgium.

Meanwhile in Italia they’re still working their way thru the 80 yr olds, looks like Covid didn’t kill them.

Meanwhile I have to wait longer in Italia to get vax’d so you all in Canada get vax’d by Trudeau’s artificial end of Sept goal.

– Your welcome Canada.

#63 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 4:56 pm

#9 Leftover

That Vancouver house is a real deal… because the realtor says so. And did you read in the description “No viewings of home at the owners request.” so just write us a cheque and shut up!

#64 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:59 pm

#59 Brian Ripley on 02.24.21 at 4:42 pm

If I still lived in Canada, and could be bothered to purchase investment properties in different cities, Calgary seems like a screaming buy right now.

#65 Sardonic Lizard on 02.24.21 at 5:01 pm

Fools come to Garth’s blog to read articles about balance and diversification, then write in the comments “Hey check out this investment condo I want to purchase…”

#66 cramar on 02.24.21 at 5:02 pm

#54 SoggyShorts on 02.24.21 at 4:29 pm

#99 CJB on 02.23.21 at 10:22 pm
My wife and I have separate finances, I pay all house costs and she buys groceries. Any extras, trips, cars, etc we discuss…what’s the big deal!
******************
How do the big things work though? E.G. if you want to go on a 5-star vacation? 50/50? What if she can afford it and you can’t? separate vacas?

How does it end? What if you’ve saved enough to retire and she hasn’t?

Seems super weird to me dude.

+++++++++

Not weird! That is EXACTLY how it works around here. Vacation costs are split based on an agreed-upon basis. Big ticket items: whoever wants it pays all or most. We are retired and it works superbly.

#67 Sardonic Lizard on 02.24.21 at 5:05 pm

#60 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately my Boomer parents plan to live in their North York detached forever. They’re going to miss this golden opportunity to sell at a generational high.

—–

I’m sorry to hear that. They clearly have ulterior motives for their retirement, as in they plan to die there.
I see senior citizens with detached houses in downtown Toronto who simply do not comprehend the size of the massive nest egg they’re living in. I mean, these folks can sell right now and live like millionaires the rest of their lives.
Those who stay put will ultimately croak and have their ungrateful kids swoop in and convert the old home into a shameful AirBNB. C’est la vie.

#68 Wrk.dover on 02.24.21 at 5:07 pm

Atlantic Lottery Corporation;

Set for life prize!

$1000/wk for life!!! (annuity)

What is this $1.6million talk?

#69 Stone on 02.24.21 at 5:11 pm

And, yikes, are you watching what’s going on in the steamy bond market?

Traders are dumping debt because they smell inflation. That’s jacking yields and ensuring mortgage increases are closer at hand. There’s no mystery why this is happening.

———

Yes. Yes, I am watching the bond market. I’m rubbing my tummy. My B&D portfolio, stuffed nicely with a pref share ETF, is sitting at 6.47% YTD. As well, juicy dividends are on their way over the next week and a half or so.

Yum! Yum!

#70 The Woosh on 02.24.21 at 5:17 pm

#32 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 3:38 pm
Eye the bond market, not the CBs. – Garth

——————————-

CBs will cap yields. Rates aren’t going to rise in any
meaningful way.’

Actually the BoC is slated to throttle back on provincial bond-buying in April. But enjoy your hopium. – Garth

————————————————

I thought Christine Largarde was warning against slowing that down too soon.

#71 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 5:28 pm

#60 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately my Boomer parents plan to live in their North York detached forever. They’re going to miss this golden opportunity to sell at a generational high.

———–

No biggie, they might like being there. Just less inheritance, haha.

#72 Damifino on 02.24.21 at 5:28 pm

#41 tbone on 02.24.21 at 3:48 pm

You know you are getting old when you can identify lines in a Buffalo Springfield song
————————

Yeah, but if one is going to parody a sixties song, rhythm and syllable count should be maintained.

For example:

“There’s a Garth with a beard over there,
Telling me, I’ve got to be bear”

#73 Penny Henny on 02.24.21 at 5:29 pm

#100 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.23.21 at 10:28 pm
#94 Bert

Home prices have absolutely exploded in the Niagara Region over the past 3 weeks. $850K homes selling in 24 hours with 9 offers. $200K over asking. Multiple examples of this. I have lived here my entire life and have only heard of this activity in the GTA.

_____________________________

Penny Henny, are you listening?

Put your Welland shack up for sale asap.
//////////////

Don’t worry about me Dominoes.
My timing in and out of the housing market is almost unparalleled. Bought down here in 2016 and the market has doubled easy. I’ll sell when I croak.

#74 Dolce Vita on 02.24.21 at 5:35 pm

#59 Brian Ripley

You know, I looked at that list of cities of yours and about the only one I considered to retire to was London, UK other than in Italia (not on the list where a home is just that, not some ATM retirement plan).

Montréal great (a piece of Europe, cuisine, history, etc.) but too damn cold in Winter!

Raincouver pretty but when my Doctor prescribed me 1000 IUs of Vitamin D per day during Winter for years there, no thank you. Ciao bella.

Australia, a land too far. Crazy, fun people though.

——————-

Pordenone, IT today:

24°C, much the same this week (will cool down to 15°C by Saturday then again they always forecast [lie] at least 3-5 degrees less so as not to scare away the milk toast tourists that we don’t have anymore).

As for London, our nighttime low, their daytime high and of course…rain, clouds (like Raincouver). Nice place to visit but I wouldn’t want to…

Still, glad I lived in Canada…it’s her people that I love and I will never forget you Canada (well except for tourism to you, no grazie, too big, points of civilization too far apart and in Winter, too cold and or too wet and not that much to see except for Québec..YVR to YYZ flight hrs one way = VCE to STN to/from…Canada is HUGE).

#75 SoggyShorts on 02.24.21 at 5:40 pm

#66 cramar on 02.24.21 at 5:02 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 02.24.21 at 4:29 pm

#99 CJB on 02.23.21 at 10:22 pm
My wife and I have separate finances, I pay all house costs and she buys groceries. Any extras, trips, cars, etc we discuss…what’s the big deal!
******************
How do the big things work though? E.G. if you want to go on a 5-star vacation? 50/50? What if she can afford it and you can’t? separate vacas?

How does it end? What if you’ve saved enough to retire and she hasn’t?

Seems super weird to me dude.

+++++++++

Not weird! That is EXACTLY how it works around here. Vacation costs are split based on an agreed-upon basis. Big ticket items: whoever wants it pays all or most. We are retired and it works superbly.

*********************
Sounds like more roommates who have sex rather than a couple to me.
Do you do separate loads of laundry too?
Split the check at a restaurant?
What about wills? Are you each sole beneficiaries of each other’s loot?

Also curious: divorced parents?

#76 Toronto_CA on 02.24.21 at 5:43 pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/24/lloyds-bank-axe-20pc-office-space/

“Lloyds is to axe a fifth of its office space after becoming the latest bank to embrace the home working revolution sweeping the City.

Britain’s biggest high-street bank is to cut 20pc of offices by 2023, slashing 8pc this year.”

I think those commercial towers are going to have to find some other use for their space if this trend continues.

#77 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 5:47 pm

#61 Faron on 02.24.21 at 4:56 pm
#57 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 4:36 pm

GME taking off again …

———–

Yep, two days ago I relayed the info I saw from an options flow analyst that AMC and GME were about to “go”.

GME from $50 today to $180 in after hours
AMC From $7.75 yesterday to $11

There’s a lot of call buying in TSLA pushing it back up to $800. Probably a big reason it bounced off $620 yesterday.

Retail is about to get another round of stimulus checks to YOLO into some calls. Thanks Robinhood!

———–

Faron, your track record has been pretty good: Denison, Blackberry, GME, AMC, renewables… Perhaps a future in this if you can find capital? It’s more fun than working for money.

#78 WDL on 02.24.21 at 5:47 pm

Tonights Blog? Bravo, Garth! Nailed it!

#79 IHCTD9 on 02.24.21 at 5:50 pm

#67 Sardonic Lizard on 02.24.21 at 5:05 pm
#60 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately my Boomer parents plan to live in their North York detached forever. They’re going to miss this golden opportunity to sell at a generational high.

—–

I’m sorry to hear that. They clearly have ulterior motives for their retirement, as in they plan to die there.
I see senior citizens with detached houses in downtown Toronto who simply do not comprehend the size of the massive nest egg they’re living in. I mean, these folks can sell right now and live like millionaires the rest of their lives.
Those who stay put will ultimately croak and have their ungrateful kids swoop in and convert the old home into a shameful AirBNB. C’est la vie.
— –

They might not give a rip about a big pile of cash and living a baller lifestyle. I haven’t hit 50 yet, and I can feel it coming on already. Sometimes I feel like moving into a newer house, look at the MLS and see what 6-700k gets you, and lose interest shortly thereafter.

Howard might be able to move back to Canada if the parents leave him the house. Come on down Howie, we need all the taxpayers we can get.

#80 Linda on 02.24.21 at 6:12 pm

Lots we don’t know about Pete & Julie’s situation. Whether Pete’s food import business qualified for Covid related government largesse; their age range; whether they have a plan on where to live should they sell; whether they have mortgage, HELOC, credit card & who knows what other kind of debt etc. All that having been said, seems to me like they potentially have a winning RE ticket if they act to sell while the general population is determined to buy at any price. Depending on their actual debt to asset ratio they might be able to sell for enough in the current frothy market to clear any debt they have & potentially have $ to invest in a B&D portfolio to generate some income to boot. Of course, they give up ownership of a house & will have to find somewhere else to live. Still, if Pete is saying they ‘sure could use the money’ seems like an opportunity that should be taken advantage of while the going is good. As for waiting to list, which is it Pete? Need or greed?

#81 Rob on 02.24.21 at 6:18 pm

Is it not possible to read into that last chart that canadians are switching their high rate non-mortgage loans to lower rate loans? If so the total borrowed(mortgage and non-mortgage) seems to be going down.

Not really. It reflects COVID cash payments used to pay down credit card-type debt. – Garth

#82 MaggieB on 02.24.21 at 6:35 pm

#62 Dolce Vita

No, we won’t forget who bailed out our proverbial vax’d heinies, but you have obviously forgotten how many of our young men died bailing out European heinies in both world wars.

#83 YVR 60% Crash on 02.24.21 at 7:01 pm

No. He doesn’t need to get some new glasses. What he need is a new brain and perhaps a new boss.

#84 Armpit on 02.24.21 at 7:02 pm

Cash is not an ASSET… only a vehicle to obtain tangibles.

It’s the cost of using it that determines the price of the goods.

It’s all relative.

When the cost to borrow was 10%, 5% felt cheap. 3% cheaper, and 1% the cheapest.

Since then, we become used to 1%. When it goes up to 2% it will seem pricey. 3% becomes outrageous, and 5% will be a disaster.

The same 5% that was cheap – a few years back.

#85 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 7:04 pm

Cool. Canada is pinning all its vaccine hopes on Novavax: a company with continuous history of vaccine failures and looming bankruptcy that began 16 years ago offering a poorly-received post-menopausal cream.

Let’s see, should a country finance a company with proven results and a functional vaccine, or pour money into one with a long history of failure? Hmmm… I’d say, hard decision… let’s go with the non-successful one.

Hey, who knows? Contrary to historical evidence and past performance, they might pull it off this time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavax-nears-covid-19-vaccine-game-changerafter-years-of-failure-11614096579

#86 IHCTD9 on 02.24.21 at 7:09 pm

#43 Dogman01 on 02.24.21 at 3:57 pm

Housing in Canada is a Zero Sum Game.
– You need shelter
– Rent costs usually are close
– You can leverage Geographic arbitrage and move to Alberta
– You can “downsize” but most people end up buying a smaller nicer place at similar price
– Move Overseas?

Very few win, many get to feel “Richer than you think”
The young get crushed until\unless they get an inheritance.
Immigrants find the cost of living forces multiple jobs and multi-generation households as a permanent feature.

This is the systematic destruction of a Middle Class.
————-

Yep, about right. You don’t make any money by selling high priced RE unless you can move long distances (especially in Ontario), or downsize and rent.

WFH transition’ers and retirees can win fairly easily, everyone else has to sacrifice in some way to make bank.

In the future low wage urban landscape, residents will need to leverage RE gains and Financial markets to keep up. It’s not going to be possible for 95+%. Places like the GTA will have next to nothing for a real middle class with the exploiters to the left of them, and the exploited to the right.

#87 Brian Ripley on 02.24.21 at 7:10 pm

“…Calgary seems like a screaming buy right now.”#64 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:59 pm

Calgary housing charts: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Yeah it does look like a buy from this perspective:
IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
SFD Prices are up:​
125% in Vancouver
151% in Toronto
23% in Calgary

​WHILE
Employment Earnings are up:
33% in British Columbia
29% in Ontario​​
18% in Alberta

But in January 2021 Single Family Detached Sellers in:
Vancouver wanted 1.9 T-houses or 2.6 condos in trade
Toronto wanted 1.7 T-houses or 2.3 condos in trade
Calgary wanted 1.9 T-houses or 2.2 condos in trade

Similar relationships between Detached and Strata prices.
A screaming buy would require finding a very distressed seller.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:13 pm

@#139 Sara
“Eventually he will end up all alone in a long-term care home with no family to care about him.’

====

Well. If looking at other elderly people at my parents L.T.C. facility is any indication….. I’ll have lots of lonely people to lay checkers with.
:)

I just doubled my annual income after receiving my annual performance bonus and company dividend.
Juicy.
The back teller just about fell over when I deposited THAT cheque.
:)
I’m beginning to understand where Sail Away is coming from.
The air is much cleaner up here in the 1% income bracket

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:16 pm

@#85 Sail Away
“Let’s see, should a country finance a company with proven results and a functional vaccine, or pour money into one with a long history of failure? Hmmm… I’d say, hard decision… let’s go with the non-successful one.”

++++

Well Liberals being Liberals and if SNC Lavalin and WE Charity are any indication of the “vetting” process…………… there might be another scandal in the works for “Little Potato”.

#90 Garth's Son Drake on 02.24.21 at 7:32 pm

This is a good call.

The herd is all in and selling the house this Spring will nail it for the seller.

I would still keep a hard asset like a house, but in a cheap area or if you are debt free in an area and don’t need to move then stay put.

But if you want to game it with a nice purse, which has been available several times now over the past 7 years, the most recent being the mother of all, then you are set for life. You can rent or move to a cheaper place and own, flush with cash for investing in stonks and crypto which will keep you rich with disposable income for all the toys you want to compliment your lifestyle.

#91 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 7:37 pm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:13 pm

I’m beginning to understand where Sail Away is coming from.

The air is much cleaner up here in the 1% income bracket

———-

It really is, isn’t it?

I mean, heck: sometimes we all want to make simple impulse purchases like, say: a bike, some new suits, a Tuscany villa, small island, personal jet…

…these little ‘me’ extravagances really do make life better, you know.

#92 DON on 02.24.21 at 7:44 pm

Tiff needs some serious glasses.

If oil goes back to 100…what will be the new price of gas…we are already back to the price of gas the last time the price of oil was $100. Some serious inflation on the way.

#93 Rowdie on 02.24.21 at 7:44 pm

We live in a different world now, so unfortunately we have to adapt. Just sold our in-laws house for 1.34M, and that is going towards their living in a care home. The RE is so crazy out here, a house in the burbs is sold within a week. People have lost touch with reality and common sense in BC, and probably across Canada. The debt they are carrying is out ways their sanity. We are still waiting on the side lines to buy are cheap, reasonably lived in house, not in the million range. People have list their minds!!

#94 joblo on 02.24.21 at 7:50 pm

TurnerNation, all about land and food supply?
I’m slowly coming around….

The Great Reset: Bill Gates & Farming – WHAT’S GOING ON?

https://youtu.be/fg0c2x74mgU

#95 Jake on 02.24.21 at 7:55 pm

#14 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 3:01 pm
Dow hit 32,000 today.
Random length lumber at $905
House prices at extreme highs.
Debt off the charts.
Government deficits at extreme levels.
Long US Treasuries massively up.
Oil and commodities up.

something is happening here but what it is ain’t exactly clear …

=======

We are witnessing inflation like never before seen in our lifetime following record government spending to fight a pandemic never before seen in our lifetime.

This was after all the goal of the FED/BoC since deflation is worse. One needs to stay invested or else fall into the abyss with low rate GICs.

#96 Faron on 02.24.21 at 7:57 pm

#77 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 5:47 pm

#61 Faron on 02.24.21 at 4:56 pm
#57 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 4:36 pm

Faron, your track record has been pretty good: Denison, Blackberry, GME, AMC, renewables… Perhaps a future in this if you can find capital? It’s more fun than working for money.

That’s kind. I can take zero credit for those calls though (renewables was luck in that the ETF and the underlying have been continually gammas queezed/have hot sentiment.). They came from some very smart people on fin twit that watch and describe the vol/derivatives space whose handles I’ll list below. I’ve dropped a few of those names already.

I’m at the stage of learning where I can understand the post-mortem but can’t read the tea leaves. I recently spent some money on a tool that shows options positioning for the NYSE that should elucidate upcoming gamma squeezes. I wouldn’t dare proclaim expertise without first going back to school. But, it’s something I’m fascinated by. I have an idea wherein one trains an AI on the time evolving vol surface of an index or to try to attain some predictability. The high dimensionality (8ish) of the options markets makes it very hard for one or a team of humans to find the market-distortion needle in the haystack.

DO NOT GO DOWN THIS ROAD FOR RETIREMENT INVESTING. This is day trading and slightly informed market timing with high risks. Nobody has any business putting their retirement at risk by playing with this stuff.

twitter handles:
jam_croissant — pretty sure this guy and his fund have already developed the above AI tool
convexvalue — options tool developer
squeezemetrics — more tools including dark pool insights
alexharfouche1
spotgamma
fadingrallies
nope_its_lily — developed an index that digests options positioning.

#97 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 8:03 pm

From Nova Scotia to Owen Sound to London, ON … has anyone else noticed all the campaigns to lure work from home people to their cities or province?

Would they be doing this if the scope of permanent work from home was insignificant?!

Those locales hope it isn’t. And the folks they lure assume all the risk. – Garth

#98 Adam on 02.24.21 at 8:04 pm

Real estate hysteria continues to seep into Alberta. Daily sales are almost outnumbering daily new listings. Almost 2x sales as last year but with only 2/3 inventory. It bears repeating that prices in Calgary and Edmonton have still not fully recovered from 2007. Here we are 14 years later and you can still buy a house for cheaper than in 2007. And oil prices suddenly are approaching $65 and beyond. If Oil hits $100 a barrel, expect prices to potentially double in 12-24 months in Calgary and Edmonton.

#99 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 8:13 pm

#6 EG on 02.24.21 at 2:46 pm

“The 1918 pandemic begat the roaring twenties . Will history repeat ?”

Nope.

The key to understanding the economy from 1906 to 2006 is to understand energy. The key to understanding the economy from 2006 to 2106 is to understand energy.

Texas is a good example. So has been California. Yes, in Texas, every single thing that could have gone wrong did go wrong, probably in order: A freak cold spell not seen in 100 years, EPA regulations that kept 40% of potential generation off line even after the governor declared a state of emergency and requested relief, freeze offs of gas and wind, snow covering solar, and plants off-line for turnaround because winter is usually a low demand period for Texas, so that is when they do their maintenance.

Texas (and California) is the future. If you live somewhere where it gets cold, plan ahead. 20 years from now rolling blackouts will be the norm during weather events, not the exception.

The best preps, somewhat in order: Good winter clothing, food and water in the pantry, a wood stove (and a pile of wood), a generator (and fuel that can be stored so propane is your best option, followed by diesel), and one of those lithium power stations. And insulate your attic if you haven’t already. Oh and toilet paper.

There is no reason what happened in Texas cannot happen in Ontario.

#100 Tom on 02.24.21 at 8:28 pm

I agree that prices need and will come down but what were they doing with the money after they listed? Buying an overpriced home elsewhere or renting? If we do get inflation or hyperinflation, isn’t it possibly better to keep the “1.6 million dollar” home?

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 8:32 pm

@#93 Rowdie
“The RE is so crazy out here, a house in the burbs is sold within a week. People have lost touch with reality and common sense in BC, and probably across Canada. The debt they are carrying is out ways their sanity.”

++++

Total agreement.
Thats why I have ZERO debt.

Cash in the bank. Check.
Investments, seven figures. Check.
Very profitable job position locked in. Check.
Waiting for the inevitable real estate reset to vultch. Check.
Worrying about my Long Term Care requirements….
It Depends……

#102 Stone on 02.24.21 at 8:39 pm

#97 Captain Uppa on 02.24.21 at 8:03 pm
From Nova Scotia to Owen Sound to London, ON … has anyone else noticed all the campaigns to lure work from home people to their cities or province?

Would they be doing this if the scope of permanent work from home was insignificant?!

Those locales hope it isn’t. And the folks they lure assume all the risk. – Garth

———

When the doctors and taxi (Uber?/Lyft?) drivers throw themselves into the fray, it’s time to make a quick exit.

They’re now in the fray. RUN!

#103 David on 02.24.21 at 8:53 pm

Makes me want to list as well (Mississauga) and relocate to Ottawa where same house goes for 50 percent less. Jobs aren’t an issue as we are both remote and highly employable. Man oh man, decisions, decisions.

#104 Oakville Rocks! on 02.24.21 at 9:05 pm

@#85 SailAway
“Cool. Canada is pinning all its vaccine hopes on Novavax:”

Wrong you Silly Troll!

Easy to find information from Health Canada and Public Services (Canada / Vaccine Agreements):
Supplier Doses Auth. Anticipated del

AstraZeneca 20 million No Pending Health
Canada authorization

Moderna 44 million Yes December 2020

Pfizer Up to 76 million Yes December 2020

J & J Up to 38 million No Pending Health
Canada authorization

Medicago Up to 76 million No Pending Health
Canada authorization

Novavax Up to 76 million No Pending Health
Canada authorization

Sanofi/Glaxo Up to 72 M No Pending Health
Canada authorization

Novavax is one of 7 vaccine suppliers that Canada has agreements with.

In what way is your statement anything but false and foolish and lazy!

Just like your nonsensical statement yesterday that the US had vaccinated 25% of its population. As per the CDC the number is 13.6% with one shot and 6.2% fully vaccinated.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

You are doing a great job making up for Stan Brook’s absence though. Stanley would be proud.

#105 up on 02.24.21 at 9:13 pm

And how did the U.S market react to the thought of the Fed raising rates yesterday ? oops flash crash until Powell spoke and said its all right no worries lol ….Taper tantrum’s have started already expect volitility in the stock market. Wait we can’t have endless stimulus without inflation lol ? Sorry, no.

But hey, at least the stock market actually reacts to inflation and rising rates ! The housing market here just see’s endless blue skies and bubble gum.

There was no ‘flash crash’ yesterday. – Garth

#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm

#99 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 8:13 pm

#6 EG on 02.24.21 at 2:46 pm

in Texas, every single thing that could have gone wrong did go wrong,

yep

lemme fix this next bit:

probably in order: , the lack of winter preparation in gas infrastructure, lack of winterization in oil infrastructure, some riming of wind structures, snow covering solar, offline generation for maintenance, a freak cold spell not seen in 10 years

Pretty much gotta order it with the proportion energy mix and % offline. Cold spell goes last because Texas has had this happen with consequence numerous times in the recent past.

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?

#107 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:25 pm

#105 up on 02.24.21 at 9:13 pm

One thing I learned on this blog was delivered when Garth chastised me for mocking technical indicators. Feb 23rd put down the hammer, today confirmed it. Get through this week and look out above.

#108 Wrk.dover on 02.24.21 at 9:26 pm

#95 Jake on 02.24.21 at 7:55 pm

We are witnessing inflation like never before seen in our lifetime

————————————————-

You miss out on the 70’s son?

I documented my own experience of Ford Econolines quadrupling in price from 73 > 84 on this blog a few weeks ago

M67NS

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 9:55 pm

@#104 Oakville throws Rocks!
“In what way is your statement anything but false and foolish and lazy!

Just like your nonsensical statement yesterday that the US had vaccinated 25% of its population. As per the CDC the number is 13.6% with one shot and 6.2% fully vaccinated.”

+++++

My my.
Hell hath no fury like a Liberal cheerleader scorned.

Whats the Canadian vaccines rate?
3%?
4%?

Lets watch the Liberal vaccine sh!tshow roll out over the Spring and Summer.
They’ve only had a year to get it right.

#110 S.Bby on 02.24.21 at 10:03 pm

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz

Worrying about my Long Term Care requirements….
It Depends……

hopefully you won’t need to wear them…

#111 Ifimay on 02.24.21 at 10:06 pm

A few weeks back my mortgage broker advised rates won’t raise anytime soon. I offered to pay a $1400 penalty and refinance a new 5 year term. He unofficially advised that i should wait it out until August.
Now I’m not so sure.

Why would you take macroeconomic and monetary policy advice from a guy who sells mortgages? – Garth

#112 april on 02.24.21 at 10:22 pm

# 17 – Ross Kay, Feb 24, at Howestreet.com has alot to say about this man and how deceptive …….

#113 Sara on 02.24.21 at 10:30 pm

CEF. While you may end up wearing the best Depends in a fancy care home, the scary reality is that with no children or partner to advocate for you (and appearing to be the type that has few close connections), you will learn to fear the PSW (likely female) just as much as you fear the women who are out to steal your money and ruin your life.

The overworked PSW who is sick and tired of changing the diapers of bitter, old, MGTOW men while making peanuts (it’s a “woman’s job” after all), will take it out on you!

You’ve been warned. Prepare. You are welcome. :)

#114 BC Renovator on 02.24.21 at 10:37 pm

Garth, what does this mean for equity markets? As last time we had a rate rise (Dec 2018) markets reacted volatile till the Fed stepped in with more stimulus. Thx

Don’t worry about. The reopening of the economy will trump inflation and rates under pressure. – Garth

#115 KLNR on 02.24.21 at 10:46 pm

@#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:13 pm
@#139 Sara
“Eventually he will end up all alone in a long-term care home with no family to care about him.’

====

Well. If looking at other elderly people at my parents L.T.C. facility is any indication….. I’ll have lots of lonely people to lay checkers with.
:)

I just doubled my annual income after receiving my annual performance bonus and company dividend.
Juicy.
The back teller just about fell over when I deposited THAT cheque.
:)
I’m beginning to understand where Sail Away is coming from.
The air is much cleaner up here in the 1% income bracket

I assume all the banter in here is still satire right?
can’t tell if folks are trying to be serious or not anymore.

#116 Irish Stew on 02.24.21 at 11:24 pm

The US Govt is on pace to borrow more money in the next 12 months than it had in the previous 200 years combined.

Still talk of cancelling $50k of student debt? Who pays for that?

Obama now talking of reparations?

CDN dollar is rising – almost half a cent today.

……getting interesting.

#117 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 11:43 pm

#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm
#99 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 8:13 pm

#6 EG on 02.24.21 at 2:46 pm

in Texas, every single thing that could have gone wrong did go wrong,

yep

lemme fix this next bit:

probably in order: , the lack of winter preparation in gas infrastructure, lack of winterization in oil infrastructure, some riming of wind structures, snow covering solar, offline generation for maintenance, a freak cold spell not seen in 10 years

Pretty much gotta order it with the proportion energy mix and % offline. Cold spell goes last because Texas has had this happen with consequence numerous times in the recent past.

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?

——————————-

I could have included your items in my list. Many mistakes were made, including in the formation of lists of the mistakes.

There are several ways you can deal with toiletries when the water is out. Turn OFF (very important) your hot water tank and draw water from there. Melt snow. But the easiest is to line a 5 gallon bucket with a plastic garbage bag and go in there. Or if it is just a number one it doesn’t really need to be flushed just close the lid after. Assuming the toilet doesn’t freeze of course, then stick with the 5 gallon bucket. Nice if you have a lid for that too.

#118 Gus Fine on 02.25.21 at 12:53 am

DELETED

#119 Sail Away on 02.25.21 at 1:30 am

#104 Oakville Rocks! on 02.24.21 at 9:05 pm

In what way is your statement anything but false and foolish and lazy!

————–

Maybe rounding variance?

So vehement. My goodness.

#120 slick on 02.25.21 at 1:51 am

A friend of my daughter, 30 years old, and her fiancée, tried to buy a house in woodstock area. They bid on 10 houses, outbid by at least $100K every time. Ended up booking a new build. At least 6 months till move-in. Went out and bought a hottub as a gift for themselves. No worries about selling their current place. Hope they have a bridge set up.

Being in the agricultural business, prices have really gone wild in the past few months. Here is what pork prices have done;

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/KMJ21/interactive-chart

Meat is gonna get expensive. Corn and beans keep going up. Wheat strong also. China buying everything they can get. South american harvest delayed. US pipeline is empty as farmers sold last fall off the field. Little grain left in Farmers hands. Look at a chart for John Deere, DE-N. Used pickup trucks are scarce as hens teeth. Oil at $100?? Food , housing, vehicles, energy, and now interest rates all up. Inflation under 2% , yeah right.

#121 Howard on 02.25.21 at 2:53 am

#71 Sail Away on 02.24.21 at 5:28 pm
#60 Howard on 02.24.21 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately my Boomer parents plan to live in their North York detached forever. They’re going to miss this golden opportunity to sell at a generational high.

———–

No biggie, they might like being there. Just less inheritance, haha.

—————————–

That wasn’t my concern. In any case, any inheritance won’t be coming my way until I’m well past 60 or even 70 (God willing). And at that point, does it really matter? Peak consumption years are 30s/40s.

#122 B on 02.25.21 at 7:17 am

I’ve got 18 months left on my 2.99% mortgage, but was just approved for 1.64% 5 year. It’s a big break penalty of 7k on a balance of $440K, but maybe worth it? Anybody have thoughts?

#123 Millmech on 02.25.21 at 8:23 am

#113 Sara
Ahh the bitter old MGTOW men, if you have ever been in an extended care home you would notice that there are usually no men in there. They do not make it that far they are usually done before 80 because they have sacrificed themselves so their families will have a better life. They have done the physical and dangerous jobs that exposes you to high levels of stress, injury and carcinogens, all so that the ones they love will be taken care of after they pass.

#124 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 8:47 am

#115 KLNR on 02.24.21 at 10:46 pm
@#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:13 pm
@#139 Sara
“Eventually he will end up all alone in a long-term care home with no family to care about him.’

====

Well. If looking at other elderly people at my parents L.T.C. facility is any indication….. I’ll have lots of lonely people to lay checkers with.
:)

I just doubled my annual income after receiving my annual performance bonus and company dividend.
Juicy.
The back teller just about fell over when I deposited THAT cheque.
:)
I’m beginning to understand where Sail Away is coming from.
The air is much cleaner up here in the 1% income bracket

I assume all the banter in here is still satire right?
can’t tell if folks are trying to be serious or not anymore.
___

Both dudes own/part-own businesses and have big incomes.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.21 at 8:49 am

@#115 KLNR

hahahaha
Nope.

But commenting to Sara is like slowly unraveling a new roll of toilet paper past a kitten.

They cant resist attacking……

#126 Reximus on 02.25.21 at 8:51 am

what, pray tell, would you all suggest pete and julie do for shelter if they ‘cash out’?

Downsize. Move. Rent. Travel. What a dumb question. – Garth

#127 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 9:11 am

#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?
____

Our place still has the original shovel dug well complete with still working cast iron hand pump. Comes in handy when the power goes out.

If no easy water in your area, there’s always the plywood seat on 5 gal pail and a little privacy option.

#128 Sara on 02.25.21 at 9:29 am

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.21 at 8:49 am

“… commenting to Sara is like slowly unraveling a new roll of toilet paper past a kitten.

They cant resist attacking.”

=================================

General “commenting” (directed my way) doesn’t get me excited and in attack mode, unless it comes from small prey animals such as yourself – then I must confess I really can’t resist.

#129 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 9:33 am

#117 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 11:43 pm
#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm
#99 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 8:13 pm

#6 EG on 02.24.21 at 2:46 pm

in Texas, every single thing that could have gone wrong did go wrong,

yep

lemme fix this next bit:

probably in order: , the lack of winter preparation in gas infrastructure, lack of winterization in oil infrastructure, some riming of wind structures, snow covering solar, offline generation for maintenance, a freak cold spell not seen in 10 years

Pretty much gotta order it with the proportion energy mix and % offline. Cold spell goes last because Texas has had this happen with consequence numerous times in the recent past.

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?

——————————-

There are several ways you can deal with toiletries when the water is out. Turn OFF (very important) your hot water tank and draw water from there. Melt snow. But the easiest is to line a 5 gallon bucket with a plastic garbage bag and go in there. Or if it is just a number one it doesn’t really need to be flushed just close the lid after. Assuming the toilet doesn’t freeze of course, then stick with the 5 gallon bucket. Nice if you have a lid for that too.
___

Not sure if city houses have pumps and water tanks. Our tank is small, good for 3-4 flushes before the pressure falls off. You could always go with a really big tank if your plumbing system is good and airtight and none of your fixtures leak. Two people could probably get by for days of flushing on a big tank.

I always thought city water pressure stays good during a power outage?

Number one’s can just be done outside – no sense using the toilet for those in a power outage.

Or if you own a Cat, you could always strong-arm him out of his facilities. (don’t shoot Felix!)

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.21 at 9:33 am

@#106 Faron
“Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?”
++++

Texans were using swimming pool water to pour down the toilet
OR you can put a garbage bag in a 5 gallon bucket, “do your biz” then pull the garb bag out of the bucket in toss in the garb bin.
Dried human feces everywhere, major spreader of disease.

#131 Reximus on 02.25.21 at 9:47 am

Downsize. Move. Rent. Travel. What a dumb question. – Garth

ok snarky, what was dumb about it? what if those are not realistic options…do they have kids? are they just going walk away from the business they have built? do they have parents they want/need to be close to?

relocating is nowhere near as simple as you pretend, otherwise many more people would do it. you would need to move far away (like, out of province) to make this strategy worthwhile and with the pandemic situation you cant even go somewhere to look at your options

Sounds like your life choices have immobilized you. You have my sympathy. – Garth

#132 Sara on 02.25.21 at 9:53 am

#124 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 8:47 am
#115 KLNR on 02.24.21 at 10:46 pm

I assume all the banter in here is still satire right?
can’t tell if folks are trying to be serious or not anymore.
___

Both dudes own/part-own businesses and have big incomes.

================

And big egos.

#133 Penny Henny on 02.25.21 at 9:58 am

#99 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 8:13 pm

/////////////

English 2

#134 Sail Away on 02.25.21 at 10:18 am

#132 Sara on 02.25.21 at 9:53 am
#124 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 8:47 am

Both dudes own/part-own businesses and have big incomes.

———–

And big xxxxx.

———–

Sara!

#135 KLNR on 02.25.21 at 10:34 am

@#124 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 8:47 am
#115 KLNR on 02.24.21 at 10:46 pm
@#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.21 at 7:13 pm
@#139 Sara
“Eventually he will end up all alone in a long-term care home with no family to care about him.’

====

Well. If looking at other elderly people at my parents L.T.C. facility is any indication….. I’ll have lots of lonely people to lay checkers with.
:)

I just doubled my annual income after receiving my annual performance bonus and company dividend.
Juicy.
The back teller just about fell over when I deposited THAT cheque.
:)
I’m beginning to understand where Sail Away is coming from.
The air is much cleaner up here in the 1% income bracket

I assume all the banter in here is still satire right?
can’t tell if folks are trying to be serious or not anymore.
___

Both dudes own/part-own businesses and have big incomes.

Of course they do.
Everybody on the internet does lol.

#136 Don Guillermo on 02.25.21 at 10:46 am

#117 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 11:43 pm

There are several ways you can deal with toiletries when the water is out. Turn OFF (very important) your hot water tank and draw water from there. Melt snow. But the easiest is to line a 5 gallon bucket with a plastic garbage bag and go in there. Or if it is just a number one it doesn’t really need to be flushed just close the lid after. Assuming the toilet doesn’t freeze of course, then stick with the 5 gallon bucket. Nice if you have a lid for that too
***************************************
For those rare times I use pool water.

#137 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 10:50 am

I wonder if it’s time for a little prepping. A decent power outage is reason enough to do the basics, but now with CV we’ve seen product shortages, massive price increases on some stuff, and hoarding behaviors. Add to that living under a soon to be financially crippled government, maybe utilities could begin suffering some reliability issues too.

Out in the country, solid back up power solves just about everything. You get water and sewer services back. Sanitation for living areas, and clothing/bedding returns to normal. Food preservation is back, and you can stockpile a large amount of food and drink via a chest freezer if you have a solid back up power plan. You can also cook as per usual.

The only thing left really is heat. Propane and Oil will get you by for quite a while due to on-site storage. Wood and wood Pellets can get you all the way thru the winter. I think NG infrastructure relies on pumps, so not sure what the implications are here.

I think I’d go with a 8-10KW inverter genset hooked to (3-4) 100 lb. propane tanks. That would cover likely any standard power outage (and then some). I might build a wood gasifier some day for a back up fuel source if I wanted a project to do. That would allow fueling the genset for as long as I felt like collecting the wood to run it.

#138 S.Bby on 02.25.21 at 10:55 am

#132 Sara

Lots of folks brag (lie?) on the internet.

#139 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 11:27 am

#134 Sail Away on 02.25.21 at 10:18 am
#132 Sara on 02.25.21 at 9:53 am
#124 IHCTD9 on 02.25.21 at 8:47 am

Both dudes own/part-own businesses and have big incomes.

———–

And big xxxxx.

———–

Sara!
___

I guess she left the door wide open for that one.

#140 Faron on 02.25.21 at 11:28 am

#136 Don Guillermo on 02.25.21 at 10:46 am
#117 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 11:43 pm
Crowdy
IHTCD9

I love that we all come together for the important issues :-)

Some areas of texas had low water pressure and whole apartment buildings had wrecked pipes. Out west here, when the BIG ONE hits, water mains are toast.

No one talks about poo for their emerg kit. Folks like you who replied would be fine. But there are swaths of urban hipsters (not me) who would be at a loss. Anyhow, just seems like an overlooked potential prob. Thanks for engaging.

#141 Penny Henny on 02.25.21 at 11:28 am

#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?

////////////////

Pool water. And by that I mean use the water from your pool to fill your toilet tank, don’t go in the pool.

#142 Job#1 on 02.25.21 at 11:35 am

Don’t worry about. The reopening of the economy will trump inflation and rates under pressure. – Garth

I hope you are correct for all our sakes. In rural SE Ontario businesses have been devestated. Most of those that have not succumbed to the public health orders have taken on debt to continue their operations in a reduced capacity. Your graph showing the meteoric rise in bond yeild, signalling imminent rate rises, will place a heavier burden on these struggling businesses.

I understand your optimistic forecast for financial markets, but have a growing sense of unease about the prospects for Main Street recovery. If small businesses account for approx. 60% of job creation and GDP, where will the projected 5-6% of GDP growth this year come from?

Thanks for your continuing efforts to clarify these important issues.

On another topic, I notice some commenters seem to come here for the sole purpose of slagging those whose ideas/comments they deem ideologically “wrong”. They rarely, if ever, stick to the topic du jour.
Please put a lid on it, or take your vitriol elsewhere. You know who you are…

#143 Doug t on 02.25.21 at 11:36 am

#113 sara

nah – most men kick the bucket before 80 – those PSW’s took it out on my Mom and all her female friends

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.21 at 11:44 am

@#135 KLNR

“Of course they do.
Everybody on the internet does lol.”

++++

I gues the 40k I handed out in performance bonuses to the staff was a figment of my imagination….as was their thanks.
Oh and I tossed 10k extra to a retiring employee for his many years of service. On top of his bonus.
We had an excellent year in 2020.
Best in 16
5 years.
My partners were very harry.

But you just keep telling yourself it’s all bs.

My bank account, investment portfolio and the CRA sez otherwise…..

Gotta go. Have some big quotes to get out.

Have a nice day

#145 Tbone on 02.25.21 at 11:50 am

Central Etobicoke doesn’t usually have power outages for long , so I just tough it out for a few hours .
Guess having premier Doug Ford living in the area doesn’t hurt either .

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.25.21 at 12:04 pm

#138 S.Bby on 02.25.21 at 10:55 am
#132 Sara

Lots of folks brag (lie?) on the internet.
—————————-
Usually folks with low self esteem.

#147 Don Guillermo on 02.25.21 at 12:11 pm

#140 Faron on 02.25.21 at 11:28 am
#136 Don Guillermo on 02.25.21 at 10:46 am
#117 Maths are hard on 02.24.21 at 11:43 pm
Crowdy
IHTCD9

I love that we all come together for the important issues :-)

Some areas of texas had low water pressure and whole apartment buildings had wrecked pipes. Out west here, when the BIG ONE hits, water mains are toast.

No one talks about poo for their emerg kit. Folks like you who replied would be fine. But there are swaths of urban hipsters (not me) who would be at a loss. Anyhow, just seems like an overlooked potential prob. Thanks for engaging.
**************************************
Good to know you’ve appointed yourself the focal point for engaging on Garth’s comment section.

#148 Sail Away on 02.25.21 at 12:17 pm

#140 Faron on 02.25.21 at 11:28 am

No one talks about poo for their emerg kit. Folks like you who replied would be fine. But there are swaths of urban hipsters (not me) who would be at a loss. Anyhow, just seems like an overlooked potential prob. Thanks for engaging.

———–

There is an organic solution. In Mowat’s ‘People of the Deer’, he describes the absolutely sterile condition of starving Inuit camps. The dogs ate everything before they themselves were eaten.

Let’s just say in a true long term emergency, hygiene is waaay down the list.

#149 Sail Away on 02.25.21 at 12:21 pm

#141 Penny Henny on 02.25.21 at 11:28 am
#106 Faron on 02.24.21 at 9:17 pm

Serious question that no one talks about. When the water’s out, what do people do for toilet facilities? Use bottled? ?

———–

Pool water. And by that I mean use the water from your pool to fill your toilet tank, don’t go in the pool.

———–

I use Ponzie’s pool. And not only on an emergency basis.

#150 Editrix on 02.25.21 at 12:56 pm

Whenever I see houses selling above asking, I always think that they were listed too low in the first place. However, that is a trick of the agents to fire things up.

#151 Tiff, The Blow it bigger guy on 02.25.21 at 1:08 pm

# 14
“something is happening here but what it is ain’t exactly clear …”
Insiders are getting ready for the next move in interest rates. Tiff will go to zero in the next move. In fact Canada is lagging in the global race to negative. That’s what is happening.

#152 Stone on 02.25.21 at 1:35 pm

Bond rates sure skyrocketed. Garth writes about that subject yesterday and things go nutso today on the bond market. I’m starting to wonder who’s more influential. Elon or Garth?

#153 Kiril Peev on 02.26.21 at 12:51 pm

If i was a betting man i would say that western governments with US/fed leadership have been inflating away their debt for the past decade at an accelerating rate.

So all those that own the sovereign debt will and have been left holding lots of 000 000 000 but with a decreasing ability to buy anything with them. The big loser being china. Probably a somewhat natural occurance as we move from a US dominated world order to a more multi polar world.