Brain bug

Pandemic puppies. Since Covid changed everything, 12.1 million dogs have been adopted in the US. Historic. Off the charts. In Canada the CKC says inquiries about breeders are up 40% year/year. Dogs selling for $1,500 a year ago are now fetching four grand. Backyard Kijiji breeding has exploded. Sadly.

The scammers have emerged. Like “James Brooke” ([email protected]), who places online ads in local publications nationally – Montreal to Edmonton, Red Deer, Vancouver and the GTA selling pups, from Poms to Beagles to Huskies. But there are no dogs. Just pictures, and an upfront demand for a fat deposit to cover transportation costs.

MJ says she was roped in by this crew after being told to send money to a dog-shipper. “It was a service located in Manitoba that is scamming service advising they will ship your dog for a flat fee and then add additional charges along the way till you realize it’s a scam.”

So if you see something like this, ignore it.

Well, here’s the point today: the shelters are empty. The animal rescue groups have no dogs. Breeders are taking names for litters in 2022. Prices have quadrupled. TikTok and Insta teem with puppy messages asking, ‘how could you get through this year without one of these?” Puppy inventory has collapsed. Canine costs have exploded. Sellers (legit or otherwise) can ask for whatever they want. Buyers continue to line up. FOMO and YOLO, brought on by an endless pandemic, have created a seller’s market in which valuations are rising by the month.

Sound familiar?

You bet. Now let’s flip over to a comment made recently by Cathy & Tanya Rocca, sis realtors in the steamy GTA burb of Burlington.

The results for January can only be described as stupefying. The average price paid for a freehold property during the month of January was $1,315,069 as compared to $1,006,343 in January 2020 The logical expectation with that kind of increase is that sales would be down significantly but they were not. In fact, during the month of January, we saw 3% more sales then we did in January 2020.

It’s everywhere, of course. A questionable bung in Hamilton listed for $599,000 sold for $801,000. Same experience in Kelowna, where the typical property is nearing $900,000, up a third. Listings in Toronto will pass the seven-figure mark, on average, in a month or two. Halifax and Victoria are nuts.

The sisterly advice to buyers:

Don’t despair – adjust. The new reality is that you will almost certainly not be the only buyer vying for a property. There will be competition. Be prepared, know your limitations and use the most recent sales as your guide. No point in looking at what happened 30 days ago – that’s old news. As to waiting this out – the likelihood is that 6 months from now, prices will be up another 6-15% (depending on who you listen to) and you will be kicking yourself for not being more aggressive.

Covid has infected brains everywhere. Puppies and houses epitomize it. Nesting, fear of the outside world, WFH, immense social change, isolation and a destruction of routines have over the course of 12 months bent personal priorities in ways we’ll marvel at in future. We started off hoarding toilet paper. We ended up desperately buying real estate over FaceTime for hundreds of thousands more than buyers asked. Because of a pandemic we all knew would be temporary, we agreed to decades of debt.

Well, puppies grow. Wildly. They eat mountains of chow and rack up the vet bills. Some shelters have started to report five-pound bundles of joy that turned into 65-pound obligations are showing up at their doors. There will be more. The American Kennel Club figures a million canines could be looking for rehoming as the vaccines defeat the virus and, yes, people go back to work.

How will inoculation and reopening the workplaces affect housing? Is the Rocca Sisters advice – to be aggressive and not delay – wise, or suicidal?

Panic buying can end in remorse. Or tears. The outcome rarely meets the expectation. Real estate is a huge commitment involving big leverage so grabbing some in a bidding war without conditions, a home inspection or even (increasingly) a walk-through, is a leap of faith. Yet scores of people are doing just this. The stats are incredible – prices and sales in the middle of winter, in the midst of a recession and pandemic, now at historic highs.

There will be buyer’s regret. Some will be punished for not having done due diligence on the properties they selected. Others will be surprised when their 1.5% mortgage rates eventually double while their incomes do not. Many who moved to the sticks will be forced to choose between commuting or selling when the boss calls them back to work.

Inventories of houses, like dogs, will only rise from here, not fall further. The bidding wars will end. Days-on-market will increase. In time, a seller’s market will turn into one favouring buyers since high prices have drastically reduced the universe of potential purchasers. Already, in most cities, average families cannot qualify to buy average houses, even at historically-low loan rates. So where are all the future sales flow from?

If you don’t need to buy, well, don’t. If you’ve been thinking about selling, this is your moment. If you got a pandemic puppy, stare into her eyes. It’s a life. Remorse is not an option.

194 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 02.21.21 at 11:32 am

Some shelters have started to report five-pound bundles of joy that turned into 65-pound obligations are showing up at their doors …… So Sad.

I have one of those right now I could never part with and he’s likely on the way to 165pounds.

But hey – People are stupid. Buying pups for 4k and homes that aren’t worth a quarter of what your paying for it is only done by the stupid people.

#2 Russ on 02.21.21 at 11:33 am

This might be a good time to review the “Rule o’ 90”.

It’s some time since being a discussion point so,
do you use current market value on the house portion or the assumed equity?
i.e.: CMV – mortgage amount = equity

Asking for a friend, as I am without debt and sitting with house value about 5% under Rule o’ 90.

Uh oh, maybe I need to do a reno to get the house value up 5%?

Cheers, R

#3 Old Man on 02.21.21 at 11:34 am

Yesterday Doug stated that the pandemic was “unforeseeable”. Completely false. Pandemics are not a matter of if, but when. I stated as much among friends just a couple of months before the outbreak in China (I was following the Ebola outbreak in DRC at the time, which had the potential for international spread due to proximity to large population centers and international airports)

FYI, there is a resurgence of Ebola in DRC and a new outbreak in Guinea:

https://www.afro.who.int/news/resurgence-ebola-north-kivu-democratic-republic-congo

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/02/1084692

#4 S in MTL on 02.21.21 at 11:34 am

Looked at a 4 bedroom appt in the best neighbourhood in Montreal, $2,200. Said it was a bit early for July and that we will wait for listings to start showing up in March.
Landlord called us back saying he would lower it by 10% if we signed today.

Yeah landlords know what’s happening. Rents lower than in 2017.

#5 S in MTL on 02.21.21 at 11:36 am

3 bedrooms (of which one den) + 1 living room*

#6 Millennial Investor on 02.21.21 at 11:38 am

Excellent post / reminder, Garth. This was the craziest sale I’ve seen to date:
https://www.thespec.com/business/real-estate/2021/02/18/hamilton-real-estate-home-prices.html

828k for a sketchy flipped Hamilton bungalow. Have to wonder what the buyers were thinking.

#7 TurnerNation on 02.21.21 at 11:42 am

New System stuff.
Since middle of last year I’d noted that Children are the focus of this new global system. Not us aging folks. And that ‘distancing’ was the silent weapon used to destroy our economy and society. (How can a small business or restaurant make money at forced reduced capacity?)

Well here it is. New Toronto District School board rules for children. Read it if you dare…
https://twitter.com/ChrisWickNews/status/1361745686816059393
https://twitter.com/digitaltincan/status/1362068152742522882/photo/1
https://twitter.com/juicetherich/status/1355541440743563264/photo/1

……

This is what a real state of emergency looks like, not the fictional ones our leaders thrust upon us.
This headline reads like a War zone. Syria? Nope USA. In this global WW3 USA is the main target.

“Cold, lack of water overwhelm Texas hospitals more than COVID-19 did (reuters.com)”

………

– What I’m always saying is that wars are fought over control of LAND. This Global WW3 might shape up worse then the GFC of 2008 – when tons of Americans were forced out of the homes amid debt.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rise-fight-back-detroit-rent-protest-erupts-amid-nationwide-eviction-crisis
According to research firm Moody’s Analytics, about 12 million renters owe an average of almost $6,000, which includes past due rent, late fees, and unpaid utility bills. In total, some $72 billion is owed.

“These are low-income households,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “They’ve probably already borrowed as much as they can from family or friends. They have no resources left.”

In New York City alone, tenants owe a whopping $2 billion in back rents.

#8 Cash is King on 02.21.21 at 11:47 am

Meanwhile, stray cats are still free. Feed the mangy rodent once per day. Sleeps someplace else, dumps in the neighbours garden and torments the other neighbours dogs.

No mice or rats. Does not need or crave attention and never plugs the vacuum with hair.

I’ll show myself out.

#9 truefacts on 02.21.21 at 11:49 am

DELETED Covid-denier

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.21.21 at 11:59 am

Buy a house that you cannot afford, and your life will go to the dogs

#11 Father's Daughter on 02.21.21 at 12:06 pm

Well we’ve been thinking of moving to Burlington for awhile now (closer to family, husband works in Mississauga, more space etc.) and looks like we missed the boat. Exact same houses that sold last year (no renovations) are now listed for $300K more. And will probably sell. Run-down bungalows are $1M. May have to wait this one out..madness.
Who the hell is buying all these houses?

#12 Consider the Dogs on 02.21.21 at 12:07 pm

In today’s post, our esteemed blog host (EBH) has laid bare a problem about the demand for dogs. My wife and I volunteer with and we support financially a few dog rescue organizations. As Garth says, demand for dogs has soared and while there is no limit it seems to the number of dogs coming out of the United States, where conditions are very bad, there is only so much capacity to move them to Canada. It is all to common that we do not have enough foster homes.

One approach that potential adopters are taking is to volunteer to become fosters so that they can take in a rescue and, in the process, assess how good a fit that particular dog is for their family. In this way, they have first call on the dog. I had trouble with this concept initially but it seems to be working out. The dogs get that temporary home they need and they are on a better footing to find a good home. The rescue organizations have the time to assess potential adopters and this process includes “vetting” the adopters, their accommodations (for the dog’s safety), and of course the all important determination of whether or not the dog is a good fit in the prospective adopter’s home.

Some rescue dogs, a few, have suffered some trauma. Almost all of these dogs recover (a lesson for all of us) but occasionally, one may prove to be more of a challenge. Coincidentally, this has led to a demand for skilled dog trainers who can act as behavioural therapists (for both people and dogs – any guess as to whom is more difficult to work with?).

Looking at the big picture concerning the demand for everything these days, I think we would do well to consider the following:

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

None of this behaviour is new; it is more so a tale of how well the social media tools that we now have work to extend and amplify what is really just human behaviour (sometimes at its worst if I may be permitted). Whether it is dogs, real estate, building supplies, or anything else, we allow ourselves to fall victim to our appetites and choose to ignore the lessons from the past.

What I find so interesting and worthwhile about these blog posts is that the fundamental premise is that one has to go against some very basic, primal urges that oftentimes drive our behaviour and instead pause and consider what is really important. Our EBH does not have a lock on wisdom, nor would he likely ever say that he does not have doubts but at least the approach that is taken in these essays is to examine and question the dominant behaviour and try to look instead for balance. Nature does not tolerate imbalances for very long. The bill always comes due.

#13 shane on 02.21.21 at 12:14 pm

Garth, If majority of Canada is vaccinated by the end of 2021, would that keep the housing market going further up? I would think a bit of boom would happen.

Why? WFH fades. Mortgage rates rise. Affordability is crushed. – Garth

#14 TurnerNation on 02.21.21 at 12:16 pm

This what I mean. “Distancing” means two classes of people. It’s an Economic Weapon.

“New York City’s Madison Square Garden and Barclays Center will open their doors this week for the first time in almost a year – but some tickets are only available to those who can reach deep in their pockets.

While Madison Square Garden will be opening their doors to the general public, offering tickets ranging from $50 to $380 per seat — following Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s latest COVID regulation allowing 10 percent capacity — Barclays Center has opted for a more exclusive fanbase.

Instead, Barclays Center will offer limited seating coupled with complimentary food, nonalcoholic beverages and an optional COVID-19 test prior to arrival – but prices have sky rocketed to as high as $5,000 per ticket, first reported The New York Post.”

……

Worth a re-post, these were Economic Shutdowns here’s evidence:

https://westphaliantimes.com/quebecs-premier-shut-down-restaurants-gyms-while-provinces-public-health-advised-against-their-closure/
“New public health recommendations from Fall 2020 that were previously confidential were made public today: the memos show that the province’s public health recommended keeping restaurants, gyms, museums, and cinemas open throughout the fall, but the premier ignored the recommendations.”
….

FINALLY some real numbers from Toronto hospitals.
Just to be clear, a year later and this is why we are still destroying peoples’ freedoms, small businesses in ON, QC and any tourism business for foreseeable years; and all old culture, sporting events here are Cancelled. Assembly is illegal. Eating inside in public is illegal. Why all travel is banned, living under EMERGENCY dictate in Ontario, #stayhome. Why Kanada is virtually bankrupted by debt.
This is why:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-death-covid-higher-flu.html

FEBRUARY 10, 2021
Risk of death from COVID-19 3.5 times higher than from flu – by Canadian Medical Association Journal

“We can now say definitively that COVID-19 is much more severe than seasonal influenza,” says Dr. Amol Verma, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, and the University of Toronto. “Patients admitted to hospital in Ontario with COVID-19 had a 3.5 times greater risk of death, 1.5 times greater use of the ICU, and 1.5 times longer hospital stays than patients admitted with influenza.”

These findings are similar to study results recently reported in France and the United States.

#15 Keep an eye on ... on 02.21.21 at 12:23 pm

man’s best friend. There are two legged coyotes too.

#16 Kat on 02.21.21 at 12:28 pm

My sister just bought a more rural property no condition no inspection. They moved in and found out it had flooded a few years before which meant mold in the insulation and the plumbing has to be fixed. This is just one issue and it has added another 10k easily to the bill and all the stress with getting it fixed while living in it. Panic buying hardly ever ends well.

#17 ogdoad on 02.21.21 at 12:34 pm

This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. People peddling puppies? Hmm…I guess people peddle people in parts of the world – including Canada. On second thought, doesn’t surprise me.

I want to keep thinking that we are capable of so much more. We’ve really f’ed ourselves, haven’t we?

11am somewhere. Time for a drink.

Og

#18 ogdoad on 02.21.21 at 12:35 pm

This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. People peddling puppies? Hmm…I guess people peddle people in parts of the world – including Canada. On second thought, doesn’t surprise me.

I want to keep thinking that we are capable of so much more. We’ve really f’ed ourselves, haven’t we?

11am somewhere. Time for a drink.

Og

#19 Rogerhomeinspector on 02.21.21 at 12:35 pm

Ahhh regret.

Did a stint as a home inspector between 2010 and 2015.

I saw my share of regret. People get stars in their eyes and fall in love with a place. Regardless of what I had to say or the caution I gave, people would still plunge forward. My game was always to ensure that these cautions and warnings were well documented.

It wasn’t uncommon 6-12 months after an inspection to get “the call”. Water pouring into the basement. The contractors are here and stopped work because of the asbestos wrapping the boiler pipes. The pointed, disjointed brick work has pulled apart further because the foundation is failing.

I dreaded those calls- not because I was concerned I was liable for a miss, but because I was going to break someone’s heart. When I’d call back, I’d ask them to go to page this or that of the report. I’d ask them to read to me the appropriate section just to be sure they had the information. They’d read it back and I’d ask them if the see the photo of the defect. The call would get very quiet with the odd “ya but…” on the other end. I had told them and they decided to willfully ignore my advice- “Prior to the decision to purchase, contact an (appropriate contractor) to further evaluate the defect, determine if underlying conditions exist and the extent of any damages and make corrections as required. Budget accordingly.”

Worst of all, when I’d note items that were large in scope or significant in cost, the realtor was often there to let their client know that I was “just covering my ass” and remind the twinkling eyed buyers that they got this- they can handle whatever comes their way. That same realtor would direct their clients to everyone and anyone else except them when problems arose. Their commission was paid and they weren’t going to have any part of dealing with the issue. Of course, the realtors encouragement was all verbal and never in writing. Realtors as a group are a shady lot. They’re sales people. Not financial advisors. They aren’t your friend.

I could only do that for so long. I can’t tell you how many people I saw rushed into quarter or half million dollar commitments that they had no business being in. Many of these people could barely afford the home to begin with, let alone the monumental costs that can come with correcting major defect or abatement. Worst part- often these costs did nothing to improve the value of the home. It’s just lost money.

I couldn’t do it. I got out when my franchise renewal came up and sold to a greater fool. I was and still am done with real estate. We even sold our family home in 2016 and started renting. I went back to working in my honest trade as a cabinet maker- dirty hands, clean money.

When I see what’s happening in the market now, I just know that many of these people will suffer significant regrets in the future.

#20 willworkforpickles on 02.21.21 at 12:39 pm

The smoke and mirrors illusion of a moderate return to normalcy and good times will soon commence as the dam of pent-up energy and demand lets go. Its coming with or without and end of the virus (without) as the urge to get out in the coming (warm) months of the year becomes too great for the virus to hold back any longer. Too great for the virus to hold back pent up spending urges. The masses just want the virus to be gone and unrealistically will force the issue of going back to the way things were with their lives long before it subsides.
Systemic unemployment is at depression levels and won’t undergo any kind of real fix anytime soon. The warm weather will end…the spending surge of built up savings eventually depleted will fizzle. Real long term growth will not come of it.The best we can hope for after another summer of fun in the sun with built up WFH savings and saved up all too kind gov support to those who didn’t need it go out and blow it all…the very best we can hope for, is that things don’t get any worse for awhile before the economy really goes off the rails.

#21 Jen on 02.21.21 at 12:41 pm

It breaks my heart to think of these poor pooches once owners realize how much work a dog can be! I’m dog lover so the work is totally worth it but they are indeed expensive. My previous pooch (RIP Barkles) cost us a bomb as he had so many issues but as a golden retriever, he lived to be 14 years old so that was a good return on our investment. :)

We (gen-x couple with 2 littles) are looking for a multi-generational home to move my ailing parents in with us. That is not going to happen in this market, sadly. For now we remain in our detached 416 with our remaining mortgage of $300K and the geriatrics are in their west end 416 rental condo. Seems prudent for now. :(

#22 DON on 02.21.21 at 12:45 pm

Meant for today’s post…thank you in advance Garth.

Look at the stress on this site…or just bad moods or bad moves. We all have them and we all make them.

Wonder what the stress is for folks. Actually i don’t wonder…you can see the cracks every where. COVID lockdown or financial stress or the stress of being locked up with your spouse and dog forbid the kids.

People know things do not make sense on a bunch of different levels and angst is running high. Maybe not as much as us blog dogs but that doesn’t matter when we are the few.

I read yet another article on the climb of interest rates…the article sounded like it was a good thing…meaning growth was returning. Bad for those who through common sense out the window.

The meme will change but the fallout will remain.

The signs are all around us. Recency bias is the wrong road to go down.

#23 Covid is not the same as FLU..agreed on 02.21.21 at 12:47 pm

DELETED Covid-denier

#24 Nixter on 02.21.21 at 12:49 pm

In Doug Ford’s world.
Your tax dollars hard at work for you, because we love you so much.

Makes me think of panopticon should be the logo on our car license plates.

Wearable Bluetooth contact tracing bracelets

Monitored by a central source to track activity / flag offenders and alert of covid positive

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2021/2/18/1_5314282.html

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/60375/ontario-investing-in-wearable-contact-tracing-technology-to-help-protect-workers-from-covid-19

#25 Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 12:50 pm

Dec 2020 Retail Trade.

December 2019 to December 2020 +3.3%
November to December 2020 -3.4%

Retail e-commerce +69.3% y/y (7.84% of total Retail Trade)

y/y OVERALL UP.

—————————-

Other noteworthy Retail Trade numbers…

ON/Toronto:

December 2019 to December 2020 -3.1%/-13.7%
November to December 2020 -6.5%/-9.6%

Largest +/- (December 2019 to December 2020):

Cannabis stores +101.8%
*Other motor vehicle dealers +51.7%
Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores +21.2%
Gasoline stations -16.7%
Clothing and clothing accessories stores -29.3%
Clothing stores -31.8%
Shoe stores -23.8%
Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores -16.7%

*This industry group comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and used vehicles, except automobiles, sport utility vehicles, and light-duty trucks and vans, including mini-vans. Establishments engaged in the retailing of motor homes, recreational trailers, campers, motorcycles, recreational watercraft, snowmobiles, off-road all-terrain vehicles, utility trailers and aircraft are included.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210219/dq210219a-eng.htm?HPA=1
https://strategis.ic.gc.ca/app/scr/app/cis/summary-sommaire/4412

—————–

Cdn Consumer still spending. A good thing.

#26 Stone on 02.21.21 at 12:50 pm

How will inoculation and reopening the workplaces affect housing? Is the Rocca Sisters advice – to be aggressive and not delay – wise, or suicidal?

———

Suicide.

The sisters have a vested interest in chumming the waters. Trust nothing that comes out of their mouth including “How are you?”.

#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm

#94 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.21.21 at 3:45 am
#186 Sweet child o’ mine on 02.20.21 at 7:02 pm
#148 Father’s Daughter on 02.19.21 at 10:45 pm

So no, #137, you are welcome

________________________

I love how people try to lamely justify how their children are beneficial to me…as if my very survival is dependent on your children.

All I said is that I don’t want to pay for them. They are yours… You decided to bring them into this world. You pay for them. Without me subsidizing their education and your tax concessions, you would know how expensive they really are! After all, I am sure your children are just lovely and sweet… Just not to me!

Though if you are interested in returning the favor, I could use some help with the down payment on that new Porsche I’ve been eyeing!
===================================
What a selfish and short sighted view IMO.

My first son of 7 is a CPA paying $150k per year in Taxes.

Trust me. In our case you will get your money back in Spades!
And be thankful you don’t have to live in a gated community with security guards like our neighbors to the south that don’t have the same support for people on the bottom tier like Canada does.

__________________

7 children…. Seriously? And you have the nerve to call me selfish!
Your family are probably all climate change activists! Talk about a lasting footprint for centuries. The hypocrisy is not lost on me.

BTW, when exactly will I get my money back in spades? Shall I provide an account that your children can deposit funds? Are we including compound interest as well for the past 25 years?

BTW, I receive no funds from the government. No CERB, no pension, nothing… And the pensions I may get one day are all paid for by myself after 40 years of MY contributions. Not to mention I am in the TOP percentile of tax payers. And you?

So get off your high horse.

“The maximum Canada child benefit you could get is $6,765 per year for children under 6, and $5,708 per year for children aged 6 to 17. Your Canada child benefit is based on your family income from the previous year, the number of children in your care, and the age of your children.Jan. 27, 2020”

#28 CJB on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm

You couldn’t pay me to either buy a larger home or any kind of second property. If a person actually looks at what real estate is selling for and thinks about it…its obviously crazy. I don’t know how this is going to all play out but it will be an epic disaster.

#29 I’m stupid on 02.21.21 at 12:58 pm

Hi Garth

I had a question for you. My wife is pregnant and due in June. We have a homebuyer rrsp loan for 70k (35k her 35k me). She wants to take 2 years off for mat leave. Can I collapse the combined 70k mortgage and just pay the tax owing at her marginal tax rate? So $35k this year then transfer mine to her and have her claim $35k next year?

No. You cannot transfer any RRSP assets, liability or room to another person. – Garth

#30 IHCTD9 on 02.21.21 at 1:03 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.21.21 at 11:59 am
Buy a house that you cannot afford, and your life will go to the dogs
—— –

Canucks aren’t listening Ponzie. Every time I think we’ve hit a turning point with Urban RE prices in Canada, they shoot up even more. 2020 was a revelation for me, RE lust is now a cult in this country. Now, prices are reaching stupid levels here in the Ontario outback.

I look back over the last 20 years, and the main reason the IH household got to a position of relative financial comfort, was due to living in a low cost area with decent incomes and a low mortgage payment. It looks like this option is deteriorating to some extent now even for our far flung podunk. If the RE buying actions of last year keep going, many more Ontario hoods are going to be added to the “not worth the cost” list for setting down roots.

#31 truefacts on 02.21.21 at 1:06 pm

@ #9 DELETED “Covid-denier” – Garth
_____________________________________

It’s your blog, I get that – but all I did was present verifiable true facts. I don’t think actual data says “covid-denier” or “covid-approver”, etc – it’s just factual data.

My goal is not to rant or spread conspiracy theories, just facts. Could you please tell me the rulebook so I can try to comply in any future posts…what’s onside/offside?

Just be quiet and get your vaccine. – Garth

#32 Prairieboy43 on 02.21.21 at 1:09 pm

As I re-read some of the blog pages over the existence of your blog Garth. It reads like big bubble just expands in all directions. Yes it is the mother of all bubbles. It will go POP soon. Your commitment to be wary, diversified is falling on deaf Canadian ears. However if anyone reads your blog, they are Typically in tune with all the happenings of this nation.
Now I need to go catch few coyotes, post a Kijiji ad (tame exotic dogs ) I have $5000.00 walking out in my field.
PB43

#33 Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 1:12 pm

VAX Canadense End of Week 7, Feb 20

1 Dose 1,077,696
2 Doses 406,130
Doses unadministered 368,490
Doses to be delivered 22 Feb to Apr 4 2,866,020
Doses to be delivered end of Mar to end of Sept 85M (6M Q1, 23M Q2, 55M Q3)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-many-people-in-canada-have-received-shots-1.5247509

https://twitter.com/AnitaOakville/status/1362448989036158978

————————

If Minister Anand is correct there will be more than enough Pfizer, Moderna doses for ALL 38M Cdns by the end of Sept. GOOD news.

Q2 and Q3 = 27 weeks. If all vax to Apr 4 used about 2.5M Cdns fully vax’d leaving about 29.5M to be vax’d in Q2 and Q3 (15 yrs or older).

A little over 1M per week will need to be vax’d. I think DOABLE. Up to the Provinces to deliver and I think they will.

Spring, Summer are going to be very, very busy for vaxing Cdns. Very busy indeed.

#34 Felix on 02.21.21 at 1:13 pm

Yep. Panic buying of puppies is rampant among low IQ homo sapiens.

“They eat mountains of chow and rack up the vet bills.”

They also lower your quality of life and make you dumber.

The most dogawful bubble imaginable.

#35 islander on 02.21.21 at 1:22 pm

You said it!
Anyway, my current rental (owned by a New Yorker) just sold (priced sharply) within 24 hours, sight unseen, to a local.
I’m moving up island to stay within my rental budget. New place (also owned by Americans), will sit empty until they retire in ??? I’ll be moving into a ground floor suite with a great view.
So, as I tell my friends, next stop will be Sointula (look it up!).

Yes, we have rent control in BC, but if you’re evicted because of a sale and the new owner is moving in, you’re faced, of course, with re-entering the market at a much higher price.

Fortunately, I am the ideal tenant: solvent, single, quiet, dogless, catless, no kids at home, don’t smoke or drink or have rowdy friends, no criminal record, still relatively compos mentis and geographically flexible. Also, after one year in lock down, I’ve learned not to need actual humans in my immediate physical space. What fun.

I totally understand that those without the above profile might want to own their own space. I certainly did when at a different stage in my life. In the distant past, living in another country, the place we bought was ideal for our growing family. We put 20% down and lived happily (or not) for many years. Just like billions of others on the planet.

As Garth has said, so many times, if you can afford it, go ahead. Also, when you get to a certain stage in life, it’s all about cash flow. Yes, HELOCs are available for home owners, but they are the first vehicle the banks will clamp down on when they need to. And NO bankers are not your friends.
Garth, once again, thanks as always.

#36 Oakville Rocks! on 02.21.21 at 1:25 pm

The Rocca sisters sold my parent’s home and the house next to mine several years ago. They are good people and completely professional in their work for clients.

However, they are not financial planners or life coaches. Their job is to get a seller the best price for their house and to help those looking for a home find one within the parameters they are given.

Just like McD’s would say that everyday is a good day to buy a hamburger (and upsize the fries & drink), the Rocca’s likely believe everyday is a good day to buy a house for everyone.

Burlington is a great place to live but it is a crazy time to buy a house here… and having eaten at McD’s I would say it is not a good day to have a hamburger there. Besides, it is Sunday – time to stay in and roast some Prime Alberta beef (just showing some love to the Albertans aggrieved by the fact that both Oakville & Burlington elected Liberals in the last election – I know it pains them so)

#37 Stone on 02.21.21 at 1:27 pm

#28 CJB on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm
You couldn’t pay me to either buy a larger home or any kind of second property. If a person actually looks at what real estate is selling for and thinks about it…its obviously crazy. I don’t know how this is going to all play out but it will be an epic disaster.

———

Don’t they have it in the news every so often that the level of anti-depressants in our waste water is extremely high and has enormous impact on our waterways as the water treatment plants are not equipped to filter it out?

On that note, yes. People ARE crazy. They’re completely doped up on who knows what medications and weed and who knows what else.

I know how it’s going to play out.

I’m sure our hero nutjob Turnernation can tell you all about it. He might even be able to tell which meds are in vogue.

#38 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 1:28 pm

I like this bit from the Rocca sisters: “…use the most recent sales as your guide”.

Unfortunately that bit of advice would constitute a thoughtful and cautious approach. Everything I read in the funny papers indicates multiple bids without conditions for things like home inspections such as the type ‘#19 Rogerhomeinspector’ used to be involved in.
Doubtful these bids are even being made with financing conditions anymore. Imagine what happens when the bank appraisal comes back thousands of dollars less in value versus the winning bid. That’s when the crying likely begins.

Self indulgence, instant gratification, entitlement syndrome. “I want, I deserve, I need to impress my friends, family and the world.” The house they live in is perfectly suited to their current needs, but the herd is running in that direction, so they need to join in and get something much bigger, more expensive, with more room for useless crap they don’t need.

When it all hits the osculating rotator the usual blame game will begin, some innocent people will get hurt, some lives ruined. And let’s just say it: many will have it coming.

But not innocent animals who thought they had a home and people who loved them. The ‘throw away’ society has been with us for awhile and it’s gaining ground every day. I can’t get far enough away from it.

#39 Earlybird on 02.21.21 at 1:30 pm

We need more variety in freehold, non condominiumized housing options. The product we would buy doesnt exist yet. We cant fathom being in a “housing relationship” with others, rentals and Air B&B. Condo life is not an option for us. The other options of duplex or SFH’s are not worth the cost. So thus the choice is house debt slavery or rent/invest until a better 3rd option is brought to market. Criminal low rates and lack of good options will ensure this trend continues.

#40 Drill Baby Drill on 02.21.21 at 1:36 pm

Hey if anyone is looking for a wild assed puppy check out the doggie roundup in Lac LaRonge Sask today. It is a yearly dog catching exercise aimed at all of the wild dogs running around the town.

#41 Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 1:36 pm

Poor pups,They are a life long commitment.
The insane amounts being paid for 4 walls,and a roof just blows my mind.
Small towns on Van Isle,have doubled in price!
Think small towns no nothing.

Just wow

#42 Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 1:42 pm

If this ANNOYS anyone, scroll by…

————–

VAX Canadense End of Week 7, Feb 20

Variants.

Only thing that can mess up vaxing in Canada – a 3rd Wave slowing down economic recovery and a return to “normal”.

So far, all of 800 cases in Canada:
UK 760 South Africa 39 Brazil 1

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-variants-of-the-novel-coronavirus-in-canada-1.5296141

Only worry I have is that the UK variant in Kent started with under 200 or so cases and the rest you know…it got out of hand fast in early Dec:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=~GBR&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Counterpoint, Canada has the luxury of knowing that and benefits from the UK experience.

——————–

So far, NO horse race between the variants and VAX Canadense, to me the latter looks to win.

Even if herd immunity is in the upper 70 percentile or even greater, that number should be reached in Q3 per Minister Anand vax shipments, 100% if all want to be vax’d by the end of Sept (proviso: the Provinces deliver fast vaxing and believe they will).

-Garth and TOUCH WOOD, break out the noise makers and champagne in October….probably SOONER:

“Optimism the economy will quickly accelerate once the pace of vaccinations picks up.”

and finally “Covid-19 delenda est”.

#43 Bill on 02.21.21 at 1:50 pm

In my view most dont have the knoledge or patients to buy and do well in RE. Ive always bought good solid propertys that had poor curb appeal.
Then do all the buildout and renos myself. Accelerate payments and then get another. Work 10hrs days then reno at night. Never sell unless your in a poor location, but then never buy there. Buy demographic trends. Demand locations for retireies is a no brainer.
Its the only place you can leverage and earn ever inflating values. Im in the 1% THANK you RE

#44 SoggyShorts on 02.21.21 at 1:54 pm

#115 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 11:41 am
#103 Dharma Bum on 02.21.21 at 9:47 am
invest sufficiently in a liquor company so dividends cover your wine habit.

Andrew Peller (ADW.A.TO) pays a dividend of 2.22%… so $71,591 invested here will pay $1,575 annually. Invest your $21, top it up with $71,570 and you’re drinking for free!
*****************
This is actually part of how I planned for our retirement.
The wife and I enjoy going for a couples massage which in VN is about $30
At one point she asked how much would it affect our plans if we went every week?

The answer:
52x$30/0.365= $42,739
So, using our “safe withdrawal rate” of 3.65%* we’d need a portfolio of $42K to get a weekly couples massage forever.

*the 3.65% SWR comes from calculations similar to but better than the “4% rule” from the trinity study.
It also has the nice advantage of giving you a daily allowance, what I call “The ten-k-dollar-a-day” rule:
for every $10,000 in your PF you can spend $1 per day forever.

#45 IHCTD9 on 02.21.21 at 1:56 pm

#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm

Your Canada child benefit is based on your family income from the previous year…

—————

As a parent, I should correct you on this point. CCB is calculated on your NET family income. Sauté the implications of this in your mind for a bit…

When Ms. IH and I decided we were going to have kids, we also planned how we were going to finance them. I’ll spare you the minutiae of this plan, but the result was we did not need any handouts from the government to cover the costs of having children. I would say that among those who had planned out their families, this process was near universal.

Up till Trudeau was elected, the UCCB was beer money. Now with Trudeau’s CCB, we have received 10’s of thousands of dollars since 2015 – none of which was needed. We’re not broke or struggling financially at all, remember- CCB is based on NET income. This would almost universally be the case among those with kids who planned out a family before actually having kids. Married couples with kids are the highest earning demographic in Canada for MHI’s. We all got a giant pile of cash, none of it was needed, thanks to Trudeau.

I have 2 kids, my bro has 3. Together, between tax returns, CCB, and all the other claims we can make, we’ve hauled in over a quarter of a million dollars since Trudeau got elected in 2015. No joke. Don’t forget, NET income. The bro and I have paid off houses, nice white collar dual incomes, decent nest eggs on the go, toys in the garage. Neither of us needed a penny from the Liberals to feed our kids.

Here’s the truth: the massive payouts made by CCB are aimed at single parents. Single Parents are an up and coming demographic in Canada. I know a single Mom with 4 young kids who gets 50 grand/year between child support, and the CCB. 100% Tax free. You guessed it, she doesn’t work…

The problem with CCB is you need a net income of a stratospheric 200k before you’re cut off. It keeps going up, and will soon be 7K/head. This all started with Trudeau, the ball is rolling now, and it ain’t gonna stop. Think a little about who benefits the most, and who these folks probably vote for, and if this demographic is increasing, you’ll know where you’re headed as a childless taxpayer.

This one is 100% on Trudeau. I’ve cashed in huge over the last 5 years, as have many families who planned a lifestyle that allowed for the financing required to raise kids. It’s totally stupid what’s going on with CCB, but are you surprised after what has transpired since 2015?

#46 leebow on 02.21.21 at 1:58 pm

What everybody says. Doesn’t make any sense.

We have everything lined up for a real estate correction. All that’s needed is a trigger. Could be a number of things
1. People moving money from deposits to capital markets
2. Rising interest rates.
3. Stricter regulations like tax on primary residence gains or CMHC limits
4. Virus aftershocks
5. Price stagnation

Who knows when it’s going to happen. Say, the probability of a RE correction for this and the next year is 30%. It means there is a 50% chance that this madness will last two more years and a 33% chance for another 3 years.

Life is just too short to worry about all this. You can’t sit idle and wait for something to happen. Don’t make the mistake of making RE ownership a part of your personal success score. And if anybody tries to make you feel inferior – just cut them out of your life. Honestly, life is too short to waste it on those who are not 100% excited about you the way you are.

#47 Roch on 02.21.21 at 2:03 pm

Excellent post as usual!

Garth, what is the counter argument to the fact that buying a house may be a hedge against nearby inflation?

A massive, huge, pulsating inflation premium is already baked into these prices. – Garth

#48 Comments! on 02.21.21 at 2:04 pm

Thank the geniuses like Jerome Powell and every other central banker along with ridiculously illogical measures taken by governments that may have forever destroyed what was left of the middle class. By design? It’s possible.

Besides puppies and property other extreme bubbles:

-oil (laughable)
-gold
-silver
-bitcoin (ridiculous)
-all commodities
-collectibles
-all stock markets especially North American

I am up a ridiculous amount since April but the crashes are imminent, so going to 75% cash soon. Can’t paper it over forever Jerome and Janet. We may not have an economy to come back to next year. Pigs will get slaughtered.

A crash as the global economy reopens, Biden spends up a storm and the virus is defeated by the vax? What possible reason? – Garth

#49 Bezengy on 02.21.21 at 2:05 pm

36 Oakville Rocks! on 02.21.21 at 1:25 pm
The Rocca sisters sold my parent’s home and the house next to mine several years ago. They are good people and completely professional in their work for clients.
——————-
Do they participate in blind auctions?, and lye by telling a buyer they have to up their bid even though they know no other bids exist? If so, jail time seems appropriate.

#50 DON on 02.21.21 at 2:10 pm

https://street360.net/canada/british-columbia/cumberland.php

2726 Dunsmuir Ave…Cucumberland BC…Vancouver Island…Hawaii of the North Rain forest.

This 26 foot wide luxurious estate features 4 spacious rental suites. Built in the early 1920 for an executive coal miner…coal mine up the road. Gotta wonder if it has a proper foundation. Yours for only 750k.

Up the street some home owners in a smaller house are building at what looks like a single car garage…word has it….it is a rental suite..most likely 1500 a month. No wonder the RV pads are packed…that and the snowbirds that were stuck from flying south. Municipalities about to feel the pinch as they too have been spending also. The town has a bike lane…but the roads are neglected and no hardware store in town.

People are gouging each other to keep the good times rolling. Nothing lasts forever.

I just put my dogs up for rent and the cats too. $500
a week for each. They are high end and require high end food and treats.

This is getting stupid…

#51 Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 2:11 pm

#20 willworkforpickles

Unsupported assertions.

1. Canada Great Depression unemployment was 30%, currently at 9.4%.

2. the urge to get out in the coming (warm) months of the year becomes too great for the virus to hold back any longer. You mean WINTER:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=~CAN&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

3. things don’t get any worse for awhile before the economy really goes off the rails.

It never has gone off the rails yet…see chart 1870-2015 GDP:

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/gross-domestic-product

Select 5 yrs for the latest:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/canada_gdp

$$$ and not % tell the true story.

4. Enough said.

————————-

And they call me the doomer and/or annoying.

#52 IHCTD9 on 02.21.21 at 2:18 pm

#19 Rogerhomeinspector on 02.21.21 at 12:35 pm

…dirty hands, clean money.

————

Excellent.

#53 Freedom First on 02.21.21 at 2:20 pm

Self DELETED. Dog lover.

#54 Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 2:27 pm

#2 Russ

This might be a good time to review the “Rule o’ 90”….Asking for a friend, as I am without debt and sitting with house value about 5% under Rule o’ 90.

—————

“I believe it is 90 – age = % you should allocate to real estate.”

That’s correct. Take 90. Deduct your age.”

——-

Buddy and you are 85 yrs old?

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/20/rule-of-90/

I agree, it is a good time for you to review that rule.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.21 at 2:29 pm

@#40 Drill Baby Drill
“It is a yearly dog catching exercise aimed at all of the wild dogs running around the town.”

++++

Thats a nice way of describing a cull.

Unfortunately, Fairly typical of remote towns, villages with wild dogs running loose and a tight budget.
An acquaintance of mine moved to a remote community years ago to teach.
He had no idea he was supposed to “tie up his dog in the yard” on a particular day each year.
Went home after school.
No more dog.

#56 expensive on 02.21.21 at 2:32 pm

Children are expensive. As per CNN report and various other surveys, it costs over $1,000,000 to raise a child. College tuitions are going up 10% every year. It will be difficult to get a job in the future when humans will be replaced by robots. Housing is already unaffordable and it is only going to get worse in the future.

#57 Socrates on 02.21.21 at 2:36 pm

Having read your blog since the beginning I realize now the high likelihood of the extinction of humans .Based on the motivation of real estate purchases during the covid mania, the recent media pictures of the planet Mars gives us a good vision of humanities future on earth.

#58 wannabe architect on 02.21.21 at 2:40 pm

#113 Sail Away

Having grown up on Campbell’s Vegetable Beef soup and grilled cheese sandwiches, I can appreciate the simple things.

My point is that the anti-home owning crowd has no understanding of the many benefits to owning a home, many of them emotional, some of them quite rational and financially sound.

Some benefits rarely mentioned by the critics: You can improve your home and increase its value substantially, getting to enjoy the improvements while earning a TAX FREE gain.

You can get a nice big, fat loan from your friendly banker, to take advantage of the centuries long trend of currency devaluation, which is accelerating, and heading into warp speed territory with CRB here and trillions in spending across the border.

That same banker would never lend you a million to plop into your investment account, certainly not at the same rate as a home mortgage. And when the market drops in a panic, as happens at least once every 10 years, you don’t get a chance to hold on, margin calls are done for you, thank you, Mr Banker.

It’s also widely recognized that retail investors do not earn the amazing benchmark returns of stock indices. Take 5% annually off for the inevitable buy high, sell low mentality of 99.9% of the retail crowd.

Some of those same, emotionally driven people would sell their homes in a panic, but most would not. The ones who do try can’t unload fast enough, so many are saved from their own stupidity by the lack of liquidity in housing markets.

If you (not you SA) are one of the few that actually lost money in RE over the last 100 years, all I can say is, please tell me what you plan to do next so I can do the opposite.

As for me, after growing up in a 900 sq ft semi in a bad part of town that we shared with another family (we slept in cots next to the kitchen), I take immense pleasure in owning a beautiful home on a lakefront lot where I end each day taking stock of what improvements I made, and if they are substantial I am happier than should be legal.

Perhaps I could spend my life in a drab rental counting my pennies in the dark, but I prefer to enjoy life. Every day I wake up and look out at the spectacular view from my 14 ft floor to ceiling windows I feel real joy, and that’s what it’s all about. Priceless. You can’t take it with you after all.

You were tolerable until you said the alternative to your personal path was living in “drab rental counting my pennies in the dark.” That suggests you are a braggart, an egocentric and have no empathy for millions who make perfectly valid choices to do what you have not, or lack your privilege. You were a better person before you posted this. – Garth

#59 Niagara Region on 02.21.21 at 2:55 pm

I’m not sure why people are falling for on-line buy-a-puppy scams. There was one of these major scams, run by a woman in Newfoundland, exposed on the CBC national news less than two years ago.

The same reason online romance scams work. Emotional needs. – Garth

#60 IHCTD9 on 02.21.21 at 2:56 pm

#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm
#94 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.21.21 at 3:45 am
#186 Sweet child o’ mine on 02.20.21 at 7:02 pm
#148 Father’s Daughter on 02.19.21 at 10:45 pm

So no, #137, you are welcome

________________________

I love how people try to lamely justify how their children are beneficial to me…as if my very survival is dependent on your children.

All I said is that I don’t want to pay for them. They are yours… You decided to bring them into this world. You pay for them. Without me subsidizing their education and your tax concessions, you would know how expensive they really are! After all, I am sure your children are just lovely and sweet… Just not to me!

Though if you are interested in returning the favor, I could use some help with the down payment on that new Porsche I’ve been eyeing!
— ————

I am pretty agnostic when it comes to folks having kids. It’s clear that for some, having kids is the best thing they ever did, for others, it’s the worst thing.

Fact is though, we need youth in our society, they pay the bills for those of us who would like to retire with all the benefits our parents enjoyed (and then some). This is a fact, and is not up for debate.

IMHO, the cost of raising kids is 100% on the parents. It doesn’t need to be super expensive, and in my experience, they do pay back into the household after a certain age, just like they did 100+ years ago.

The problem childless taxpayers have today isn’t that other folks decide to have kids, it’s the government we have elected deciding that everyone in the country should foot the bill for parents irregardless of whether they have kids or not.

You DO benefit from the youth of Canada (immigrant or domestic), it’s just that Trudeau has decided you childless folks need to “pay your fair share” in ensuring youth do materialize in this country one way or another.

Don’t blame parents, blame the government who thought parents needed to be subsidized (we don’t). Those of us that planned out having families never needed, nor asked for; a single penny from government to feed our kids.

Trudeau’s CCB costs taxpayers 10’s of Billions every year. Most of this is wasted cash. Put the responsibility for this boondoggle where it belongs – right on the Trudeau Liberals.

#61 Comments! on 02.21.21 at 2:57 pm

A crash as the global economy reopens, Biden spends up a storm and the virus is defeated by the vax? What possible reason? – Garth

—————————————————-

-Millions of small businesses across the globe gone forever
– Hyper inflated assets
-“True” unemployment deep into the double digits in all western nations and has become structural
-zero bullets left in the chamber for central banks besides reckless printing which will stop working soon and must end anyway…negative rates will spell the end.
-crushing debt now in the hundreds of trillions worldwide
-taxes will have to go parabolic to put a dent in what is owed
-phoney stock valuations all based on QE that must revert back to earnings and price discovery, they always do (e.g. Tesla valued at all other car manufacturers combined)
-people buried up to their eyeballs in debt with borrowing costs increasing
-hospitality, airline and tourism wiped out and will take years to begin to recover. A huge employment sector.
-Biden government destroying the American energy sector
-Vaccines may not work on new variants…Imagine that and Lord help us.
-GDP is down by 25% or more with the smoke and mirrors of stimulus added in, distorting every piece of real data.
-the economy that is being “opened up” won’t look much different than the locked down version. Still big box store and online domination with the little guys gone, masks and social distancing could be around for another 2 years if all goes well.

If governments continue to bail everyone and everything out, then the party can last a little longer, but the end result will be far worse. Even Joker Jerome knows this.

I don’t believe I’m being negative, but realistic and prudent.

You make so many false assumptions and exaggerations that rebuttal is not worth engaging in. Go to cash, if you want. Reasonable people will not. Let’s see who has the better outcome. – Garth

#62 45north on 02.21.21 at 3:00 pm

Panic buying can end in remorse. Or tears. The outcome rarely meets the expectation. Real estate is a huge commitment involving big leverage so grabbing some in a bidding war without conditions, a home inspection or even (increasingly) a walk-through, is a leap of faith. Yet scores of people are doing just this. The stats are incredible – prices and sales in the middle of winter, in the midst of a recession and pandemic, at historic highs.

“The stats are incredible “

not just incredible, they’re scary

I’m scared.

#63 45north on 02.21.21 at 3:01 pm

RogerHomeInspector

I could only do that for so long. I can’t tell you how many people I saw rushed into quarter or half million dollar commitments that they had no business being in.

that got my attention

#64 Dan on 02.21.21 at 3:07 pm

My heart goes to all the pets who will be abandoned by the TikTok kids when WFH will end. :-(

We got our dog from a young lady who lived in a condo and wanted her initially because she was feeling alone. Then a boyfriend appeared. The poor thing was staying alone in the apartment for 10-12 hours in a row. The young lady was more than happy to pass it to us for free even though she had paid a lot for her initially. It took the dog a few months to recover from the trauma.

People do not realize that these days a pet will live for ~15 years and that they need to be socialized and taken care of. Again – my heart goes to all these future abandoned pets. They do not deserve this.

#65 Russ on 02.21.21 at 3:13 pm

Dolce Vita on 02.21.21 at 2:27 pm

#2 Russ

This might be a good time to review the “Rule o’ 90”….Asking for a friend, as I am without debt and sitting with house value about 5% under Rule o’ 90.

—————

“I believe it is 90 – age = % you should allocate to real estate.”

That’s correct. Take 90. Deduct your age.”

——-

Buddy and you are 85 yrs old?

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/20/rule-of-90/

I agree, it is a good time for you to review that rule.
=====================================

Hey DV (see, no spelling mistake) :)

Do I need to send you a hurt feeling report? Hugs aren’t allowed, covid yada yada. And we’re coming up on a year since the Italian mayor “hug a Chinese” campaign.

What a maroon.

Anyhow, back to topic. I will speak slowly… my situation for the R o 90 is 30% in house value but I’m sitting at 25%.
Do I renovate the place to bring it inline with the guideline.

TIC is intentional.

What a lovely day on the beautiful wet coast, warm & sunny. Nice 1.5 hour walk along the waterfront.

Cheers, R

#66 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 3:16 pm

50 Don…But….but…..it’s the hipster haven of….CUMBERLAND!!!!…..

#67 Just Around The Corner on 02.21.21 at 3:18 pm

Is this the classic ‘prices and inventory will be better in just a little while’ line?

I guess buyers have to look at the last time there was these types of bidding wars and 30% price increases and then look what happened after. The answer is 2017 – and what happened after was continued price appreciation until the 2020 pandemic, and then another 30% price appreciation with limited inventory.

And prices are very very sticky on the way down as has been noted on this blog ad nauseam – and price declines, if any materialize, take years and years – not mere months. Prices appreciate so rapidly and then take forever to decline as people dig in and refuse to sell. Those waiting for better market conditions can join the long queues of renters that have been waiting for a decade or more.

This pandemic induced market frenzy is not different this time. The perpetual question – who will buy at these nosebleed prices – has been asked on this blog for a decade. And yet, year after year, the mysterious buyers come out of the woodwork, willing to take a chance on the greatest growth investment for the past 2 decades.

#68 islander on 02.21.21 at 3:24 pm

#50 DON
“I just put my dogs up for rent and the cats too. $500
a week for each. They are high end and require high end food and treats.”

Love it!

#69 Pet Shop Boy on 02.21.21 at 3:30 pm

Consumerism. We want, we buy. Even if it is a living thing.

Pandemic? Get a dog!

Pandemic over? Drop it off at the shelter…is probably what will end up happening.

Poop all over sidewalks already – never seen so much of it on sidewalks.

Consumerism has spread to animals. Can’t Insta or tweet or FB dinner meals at restaurants, concerts, vacations, so…get a dog!

I just hope all these dog owners live up to their responsibility. I have a feeling this bubble will burst, and innocent animals will pay the price for short human attention spans.

#70 Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 3:31 pm

Cucumberland is a special breed,Was there not long ago, Still don’t like it

#71 Comments! on 02.21.21 at 3:32 pm

You make so many false assumptions and exaggerations that rebuttal is not worth engaging in. Go to cash, if you want. Reasonable people will not. Let’s see who has the better outcome. – Garth

—————————————

Respectfully I don’t believe that I have done so. You know full well where the markets would be without trillions printed out of thin air and 0% rates. That’s not an assumption. If you’re concerned with the real estate sector on one hand for using cheap/free money, fomo and loose lending to blow up to perverted levels, it seems disingenuous to be cheering on the equity markets that are thriving for the same reasons. They stopped being forward thinking years ago and are both extremely risky. Drunk on QE and Zirp. $800,000 bungalow in Hamilton or 650 zombie corporations collectively worth trillions but collectively owe nearly $4 trillion. Take your pick and make your money while you can.

Does anyone seriously believe that the 5 week bear market was normal? Time will tell.

#72 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 3:39 pm

#44 SoggyShorts on 02.21.21 at 1:54 pm

*the 3.65% SWR comes from calculations similar to but better than the “4% rule” from the trinity study.
It also has the nice advantage of giving you a daily allowance, what I call “The ten-k-dollar-a-day” rule:
for every $10,000 in your PF you can spend $1 per day forever.

//////////////////

My plan has me in blue chip Canadian Dividend payers which are currently paying me 4.95% per year. These companies tend to increase their dividends at a rate greater than the rate of inflation. The said dividends are eligible for the dividend tax credit so as long as I manage the withdrawals from my wife and my RRSP’s carefully our tax rate will be under 1% (going up slightly when CPP and OAS kick in, but then I will also qualify for old age credit).
So my withdrawal rate is 4.95%, good chance it will keep up with inflation, the capital amount should increase as the dividends are increased and this can continue on indefinitely.

Serious question to you Soggy, or anyone else who wants to pick this apart, what am I missing?

PS. I do realize Garth’s B&D portfolio would average a return 7% but this strategy should do about the same with 4.95% return and another 2% or so capital appreciation.

I’m all ears.

Investing in one asset class, currently at a record high, increases risk. Investing with so much home country bias increases risk. Potential tax changes affecting dividend income (quite likely) increase risk. Inappropriate for a retired person. – Garth

#73 Habitt on 02.21.21 at 3:44 pm

WFH will end cause people that want it to say so. Till it actually happens like you know houses going down in price or rates rising don’t hold your breath. There are reasons why they want you to believe it. Get it?

#74 willworkforpickles on 02.21.21 at 3:50 pm

#51 Dolce Vito

I’ve said it before and i say it again, assumptions of the economy getting back to where it was are overly optimistic.

The great spending spurt expected in the next few months will have most convinced the worst is over and behind us…but its a mirage they will glean those high assumptions from.

As long as government support massively adding to the national debt/s continues through to re-structured new employment and growth over the next few years barring any further crises, the economy may avoid going off the rails…(and that’s a stretch)

I didn’t say we are there yet but the best we can hope to see realistically is in the general state of things not getting any worse for as long as possible .

Been saying that one for awhile here also.

#75 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 3:50 pm

Just scrolling through the comments today, and there is an excerpt that deserves to be highlighted. Let’s give it the attention it deserves. Here it is:

From- #36 Oakville Rocks! on 02.21.21 at 1:25 pm
‘Besides, it is Sunday – time to stay in and roast some Prime Alberta beef (just showing some love to the Albertans aggrieved by the fact that both Oakville & Burlington elected Liberals in the last election – I know it pains them so)’.

You don’t have to be a genius to see this comment for what it really is…..

A little ‘jab/reminder’, that national elections in this country are decided in some parts of the country and not as a collective whole, despite the contributions made to the national whole. Sorry to spoil your fun Oakville Rocks, but this is hardly a new revelation out west. Old news.

I’d actually like to thank you for your ‘Let them eat cake’ moment and comment. It reminds me of a line in the movie Havana where Arturo Duran says ” I want to thank you. I mean it. The anger kept me going. It was like strong cold coffee”….

Never in my life did I think there would ever be any serious support for secession, but given the events of the past five years I am seriously beginning to question that thinking. West of Alberta is a province with an even greater propensity to cut ties. Who knows? So many unimaginable changes coming at us these days, world turned upside down, etc. We live in an age of everything goes and nothing matters. Guess we’ll see how it all turns out.

Enjoy that Alberta Prime Beef. Apparently we supply most of the country. And if your home in Oakville benefits from any home heating product that originates from that “Cowboy” province out west enjoy that, too.

Above all get ready to put your ‘X” next to the name of your favourite Liberal candidate in the next election.

You’ll be living up to all our expectations. And we’ll be enjoying our strong cold coffee and weighing our options.

Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm

Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

—————————————————

There’s no such thing as “will never” and/or “can’t ever”. The universe is fluid.

When it comes to the lawful secession of a province the word is ‘never.’ If you think you can shoot your way out, well, that would be interesting. – Garth

#77 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.21.21 at 4:02 pm

#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm

Sorry to hear you are so bitter about sharing the wealth. But if you look at the big picture you would know that beyond your front door is a world of public works paid for by taxpayers.
You would not have good roads to drive your Porsche on if it weren’t for the large taxpayer base. Are you so independent that you can provide power and gas lines to your property? Sewer and water service?

We need young people to run this country and the only way we are getting them now is by importing them. Birth rate is 1.4?
The wealth of our Nation is awe inspiring! Walk down any downtown street in a major city. You will see high rises, lighted streets, traffic order, large stadiums and theatres. Orderly government regardless of their differences with our own political leanings.

If you have ever travelled to a number of Third world nations you would see and appreciate the differences.
Poorer nations do not have efficient tax collection infrastructure. Police are paid on the spot and into their pocket for violations. City parkland is sold off to developers (Manila). 8 year old children in Nepal sleep on the street in the cold.

We live in a Society…its not everyman for himself.
What is good for your neighbor is good for you. If we were to extrapolate your idea of sharing to its extreme, our population would be in severe decline and in a thousand years there would be no one to turn out the lights!

FYI we are not tree huggers contrary to your speculation. My kids have suffered under extreme poverty after a family and business tragedy in the 90’s that left me a single Dad with 5 kids and broke!
We came back but the kids felt the pain of poverty big time. They are now aggressive wealth seeking missiles. None of them want to revisit the hard times.

BTW my own business has flourished in the last 5 years. I can honestly say I want for nothing. It wasn’t easy raising all these ankle biters and I would not recommend you try it at home! But there are rewards to come in the future.

It is admirable that you are pulling your own weight and paying your way. But who’s the bigger man? One who pays his way or the one who pays his way and pulls up a less fortunate one behind him?

A lot of our good fortune is just that, Luck. To prove it. You were not born in the squalor of Lagos Nigeria, where opportunities are few.

#78 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 4:03 pm

Investing in one asset class, currently at a record high, increases risk. Investing with so much home country bias increases risk. Potential tax changes affecting dividend income (quite likely) increase risk. Inappropriate for a retired person. – Garth
///////////////

Thank you for your feedback. All points considered.
My crystal ball is a bit fuzzy but it’s suggesting that changes to capital gains exemption is far more likely than changes affecting dividend income.

#79 Flop... on 02.21.21 at 4:07 pm

I’ve been slacking, yes, so I will try to contribute something real estate related for a bit of content for our Vancouver readers.

What can I write about?

O.k lets examine this recent sale, no high end stuff, just bread and butter Eastside sales.

Sales come, sales go, after the last 15 years or so it’s gotta be something special before I wonder what exactly happened.

Detached has been solid in my hood, but instead of buying a knockdown for 1-1.2 and trying to build a new detached and get north of 2.2 the easiest way to make a profit at the moment to build a duplex and try to get 1.5 for each portion to capitalize on the people bailing from germ infested condos.

The recent sale in my hood that made me raise my eyebrows, but my blood pressure stayed exactly the same was this duplex.

Some details…

3220 Inverness st,Vancouver.

3 bed, 3 bath Duplex.
14 years old, dated kitchen and bathroom.
1400 sq ft.
Ask 1.33, assessment 1.13

Sold for 1.56

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/homes/british-columbia/vancouver/3220-inverness-street/bc-van-10420277/?redirect=1

I looked at that and I remembered this little bungy had recently sold for less.

5247 Elgin st, Vancouver.

Some details…

3 bed, 2 bath.

1720 sq ft.

80 years old but many updates, all the money areas taken care off, kitchen renovation, bathroom renovation.

Asked 1.59, assessment 1.31

Sold for 1.50

Here is the old listing from when it sold in 2016 for 1.37

https://www.teamkerr.ca/listings/sold/5247-elgin-street/

Like I said the goal is to to get 1.5 for each side but these guys recently sold brand new ones for much less, they built three structures side by side for six residential units.

Some details…

4598 Dumfries st, Vancouver.

1 year old, so basically new.

1400 sq ft, same as the 14 year old one that someone paid 300k more for.

Ask 1.27, Assessment 1.25

Sold for 1.27

https://www.facebook.com/canwesthomes/posts/our-latest-project-of-6-units-which-was-just-completed-458045884598-dumfries-str/3337532852975665/

Conclusion….stuffed if I know, I’m just an innocent bystander that the real estate cartel would like to steamroll.

These guys could have bought a turn-key fully renovated bungalow for 60k less.

They could have bought a relatively brand new like for like duplex for 300k less with 13 years less on the clock.

The monied people I work for who somewhat casually plonk 7-8 million down on a property, I don’t worry about, the people that spend over 1.5 on a 14 year old duplex, I hope everything works out o.k for, but seems extremely risky even by Vancouver standards.

I will keep observing from the trenches, my head down, so it doesn’t get blown off…

M46BC

#80 Cheech on 02.21.21 at 4:08 pm

The sisterly advice to buyers: Don’t despair – adjust. The new reality is that you will almost…

C’mon, really. These two are high on CranberryJuice. Their reality is that they believe that being a realtor is a necessity.

FuggetAboutIt

#81 macduff on 02.21.21 at 4:13 pm

I have the most amazing tulip bulbs for sale. I know it sounds strange, but very soon, these are going to be THE thing. Buy now, before the price goes to the moon. Your neighbors will definitely be jealous.

#82 R on 02.21.21 at 4:14 pm

The disaster in Texas may be a wake up call. People are died due to the lack of electricity, natural gas and clean water because the utilities didn’t plan for freezing temperatures. Texans may now opt for complete self sufficiency. Perhaps on new house builds mostly ,the roof will be solar, there will be 72 hr battery storage n the garage and an “Auto Buidder” software that can sell your excess battery energy to the grid for a profit. What happened in Texas is what happens when MBA managers are in control.

#83 better person on 02.21.21 at 4:21 pm

“You were tolerable until you said the alternative to your personal path was living in “drab rental counting my pennies in the dark.” That suggests you are a braggart, an egocentric and have no empathy for millions who make perfectly valid choices to do what you have not, or lack your privilege. You were a better person before you posted this. – Garth”

I am the same person before and after I posted that, and the irony of suggesting I have no empathy for renters because I disagree with people who ridicule homeowners is sweet.

I didn’t realize that defending homeowners by taking a shot at the ‘renters rule’ crowd would hit so hard. Sensitive bunch.

If my criticism of the idea that money is the most important factor in the buy/rent analysis makes me a bad person, then I am a very bad person. Good thing the chicks like that. (<— this is a joke, remember those?)

The fact is, renters have little or no incentive to improve or maintain property they don't own, and in fact , the lack of maintenance work is often cited as one of the biggest benefits to renting. And landlords are routinely berated for doing a lousy job of it.

Me? I like to paint, knock down walls, plant gardens, whatever it takes to make my surroundings nicer. I don't want to do that kind of work for someone else's benefit.

Spending my time lying on a beach or running in circles 'to get in shape' seems like torture to me. I'd rather build a deck.

Am I privileged? Damn right, and I worked hard every day of my life to earn that privilege. You won't get an apology from me for it.

Braggart? If describing my pleasure in enjoying the benefits of fine architecture and waterfront living is bragging, guilty. I should've just mentioned the RoR of my stock portfolio. Oops.

Egocentric? Guilty again. The purpose of life is quite simple: personal happiness (can't get more egocentric than that), which comes to people in different ways. Some like to help others (it makes them feel good: egocentric), some like to create art, some like to accumulate piles of money, some like to build or renovate houses. To each their own.

I only know a few people who are truly altruistic: extremely religious people. They don't seem very happy. I prefer happy.

#84 millenlial on 02.21.21 at 4:22 pm

DELETED Anti-Alberta

#85 Ustabe on 02.21.21 at 4:24 pm

#40 Drill Baby Drill on 02.21.21 at 1:36 pm

Hey if anyone is looking for a wild assed puppy check out the doggie roundup in Lac LaRonge Sask today. It is a yearly dog catching exercise aimed at all of the wild dogs running around the town.

Lots of very interesting dogs come out of far north towns and reserves. Bring them down south and just like pound dogs they know they have hit the dog lottery.

We have one in our town I pass by on the walking paths quite frequently. Built like George Chuvalo, stunningly beautiful colouration and stance he is a very large dog stuffed into a medium sized suit who puts most other town dogs to shame. I’d almost be willing to pay for DNA testing, I’ll bet there is interesting stuff in there.

#86 millenlial on 02.21.21 at 4:25 pm

There’s a Skip the Dishes starting but for pets (Skip the Pets maybe) where you can “rent” a pet for a set period. Millennial’s love the idea and the founders will become billionaires.

#87 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 4:29 pm

72 Penny – garth basically dissed ya but I believe this approach should make up a good portion of your portfolio.

Dividends are fully taxed when both the Corp tax and
personal tax are added so I am not concerned with a tax hit on smaller incomes. Could still happen but a lot of retirees would be pissed and will make sure socks knows.

But maybe look at it this way. $300k invested like this
will yield almost $15k pa. If held in non-reg joint acct split with spouse and count as “pension” income. Given max $20k from govt pensions, age credit, you now have the first $27500 each tax free, basically indexed to inflation, and never touch the principal which will increase over the long haul. Sweet deal.

But check dividend fund holdings. Many have
considerable US exposure because there simply are not enough good deals in Canada.

Put the rest in RE in…….CUMBERLAND…….!!!!!!

#88 millenlial on 02.21.21 at 4:31 pm

DELETED

#89 the jaguar on 02.21.21 at 4:35 pm

Never say never.

Never. There is no path for this. – Garth

#90 willworkforpickles on 02.21.21 at 4:37 pm

Structural unemployment carries permanent aftereffects like depressions. Cyclical unemployment associated with recessions do not generally bear permanent structural change but slowdowns that eventually turnaround.
Like with any depression, rebuilding structured employment lost in the pandemic and to regain former growth will take years of rebuilding.
The odds are heavily stacked against this with national debt levels being where they are and where they’re headed going forward.

#91 Barb on 02.21.21 at 4:40 pm

#69 Pet Shop Boy

“I just hope all these dog owners live up to their responsibility. I have a feeling this bubble will burst, and innocent animals will pay the price for short human attention spans.”

————————————–

If today’s child-rearing results are any indication, it’s sad to think they’ll now have a dog.

Over the last 5 or 10 years, I’ve never seen so many disrespectful and bad-mannered kids of all ages.

#92 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 4:46 pm

@Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

We’ll pull a “Crimea”, we all speak ethnic American here! We want to join the motherland, deplorables and all!
Better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven!
We’ll buy our Cheerios and vehicles from California!

Like a Coyote caught in a trap, we’ll chew our own leg off to get away from all the lazy bastards, identity politic players, and other peeps with whom we share no common values! ( i.e. hard work, etc).

Mercy! I hear the police sirens now! They’re coming for me, gotta run for my life……….!!

You jest, of course. But there are some who think US annexation is possible. It is not. Hey, here’s a thought – why not start an Alberta-based political party to represent your interests in Parliament, splitting the vote and guaranteeing a Liberal majority? You could call it something like ‘Reform’. – Garth

#93 Handsome Ned on 02.21.21 at 4:47 pm

#75 the Jaguar

Vive Alberta…Vive Alberta libre! If Alberta secedes, I’ll be the first to claim refugee status. Canada is dead to me.

#94 Q-Trump to Q-Quacks to Quakistan on 02.21.21 at 4:51 pm

Wondering aloud,,, World’s $281 trillion debt… Could it be that they inflate it away perhaps recklessly at let’s say 6 to 8 percent annually for a few years,,, meaning no rate increases for the same period..?? CBs couldn’t be that reckless could they..??

#95 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 4:55 pm

#87 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 4:29 pm
72 Penny – garth basically dissed ya but I believe this approach should make up a good portion of your portfolio.

Put the rest in RE in…….CUMBERLAND…….!!!!!!

////////////////////

I’m in, it sounds lovely!

#96 Captain Uppa on 02.21.21 at 5:00 pm

I’m not a pet person and will never own a dog because I know I can’t give my all to it. I don’t mind dogs, but I am loathing all the new dog owners who don’t pick up the crap… or if they do, leave the baggies everywhere.

Also, 70% of people I see walking dogs, look miserable. So why get the dog in the first place?

Get a dog if you’re committed; they deserve that.

#97 Ustabe on 02.21.21 at 5:04 pm

…Over the last 5 or 10 years, I’ve never seen so many disrespectful and bad-mannered kids of all ages.

Quite a few of them posting here regularly.
Like watching the losers squabble in Grade 11 detention.

#98 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 5:05 pm

#91 Barb on 02.21.21 at 4:40 pm

Over the last 5 or 10 years, I’ve never seen so many disrespectful and bad-mannered kids of all ages.

————-

People have been saying that since grunting passed for language.

#99 willworkforpickles on 02.21.21 at 5:06 pm

National debt creation has spurred growth for many years.
Now the debt to GDP ratio is so far out of balance with ballooning debt levels that new debt will soon have the reverse effect on expansion.
Rising interest rates tend to do that.
Forced to raise rates so just to continue creating and selling debt will more so.
The won’t happen can’t happen rose coloured glasses wearing happy campers may now object…but it won’t change what’s to come.

#100 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 5:08 pm

#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm
Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

—————————————————

There’s no such thing as “will never” and/or “can’t ever”. The universe is fluid.

When it comes to the lawful secession of a province the word is ‘never.’ If you think you can shoot your way out, well, that would be interesting. – Garth

—————————————————

Please don’t put words in my mouth. I don’t think anything of the sort.

On your other point, are you saying that the last Quebec referendum was a sham and nothing would have come of it if the “yes” side would have come out on top? Jean Chretien sure didn’t seem to have your level of optimism about “never”.

Disclosure: I and a requisite majority voted a resounding “NO” in that referendum and Canada is a better place for it.

Read the Clarity Act. – Garth

#101 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 5:16 pm

You jest, of course. But there are some who think US annexation is possible. It is not. Hey, here’s a thought – why not start an Alberta-based political party to represent your interests in Parliament, splitting the vote and guaranteeing a Liberal majority? You could call it something like ‘Reform’. – Garth

———————————————————

That made me laugh. That called up a flashback of the Royal Canadian Air Farce…Preston Manning’s “Rrrreeeeformmmmm”. Hilarious!!!

#102 Millennial 1%er on 02.21.21 at 5:24 pm

Looks like money printers affects everything from houses to plywood to dogs

#103 I think ... on 02.21.21 at 5:28 pm

#95 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 4:55 pm
#87 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 4:29 pm

Put the rest in RE in…….CUMBERLAND…….!!!!!!

////////////////////

I’m in, it sounds lovely!
———————————————
down south it would be called a “holler”

#104 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 5:37 pm

#97 Ustabe on 02.21.21 at 5:04 pm

…Over the last 5 or 10 years, I’ve never seen so many disrespectful and bad-mannered kids of all ages.

Quite a few of them posting here regularly.
Like watching the losers squabble in Grade 11 detention.

————–

Curmudgeons also have existed since time immemorial.

Your free cane, lawn chair and No Trespassing sign can be picked up at Home Depot upon proof of misanthropy (yelling at the teller will suffice).

#105 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 5:38 pm

#100 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 5:08 pm
#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm
Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

—————————————————

There’s no such thing as “will never” and/or “can’t ever”. The universe is fluid.

When it comes to the lawful secession of a province the word is ‘never.’ If you think you can shoot your way out, well, that would be interesting. – Garth

—————————————————

Please don’t put words in my mouth. I don’t think anything of the sort.

On your other point, are you saying that the last Quebec referendum was a sham and nothing would have come of it if the “yes” side would have come out on top? Jean Chretien sure didn’t seem to have your level of optimism about “never”.

Disclosure: I and a requisite majority voted a resounding “NO” in that referendum and Canada is a better place for it.

Read the Clarity Act. – Garth

———————————————————

Sure…the Clarity Act allows any province to have a referendum on secession. It has to have a clear question and a clear majority. Theoretically, they can’t secede unilaterally. They’d have to negotiate with the federal government and parliament would have to have approval of the House of Commons. Very difficult but not sure I’d apply “never” to that. I could just imagine the BQ backing Alberta if it ever got to that point. It wouldn’t get anywhere based on the current parliament but that would still be scary and set a nasty precedent just for having gotten that far. Plus, an enormous waste of money.

#106 Faron on 02.21.21 at 5:48 pm

#70 Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 3:31 pm

Cucumberland is a special breed,Was there not long ago, Still don’t like it

Cumberland. Ugh. reminds me of what happened to Bend Oregon. At least these places act as candles to draw the moths away from the real gems. OMG, look, they have a yoga studio! And a shop that sells succulents! Where do I plug in my Tesla? Oh look…

That said, Rider’s Pizza used to be some of the best on the Island. Don’t think that can be said anymore. Standard has it beat easily IMO.

crap, i sound like blilly blob

#107 Pomeranian Breed on 02.21.21 at 5:57 pm

When is the Bank of Canada going to increase interest rates and stop buying back mortgages

and tighten the money M2 once and for all?

Don’t want to be holding Weimar Poloz pesos friend.

#108 S.Bby on 02.21.21 at 5:59 pm

What about getting a robot dog? I hear they are an up and coming thing. They don’t eat and no vet bills either.

I hate smug realtors.

#109 Faron on 02.21.21 at 6:06 pm

#93 Handsome Ned on 02.21.21 at 4:47 pm

#75 the Jaguar

Vive Alberta…Vive Alberta libre! If Alberta secedes, I’ll be the first to claim refugee status. Canada is dead to me.

Why the heck do you think the US wants a bunch of Smorg eatin’ curlers to come dump prions into the gene pool whilst pawning off low grade oil-like dirt?

Would be an epic self own to secede only to find that your intended recipient had other ideas. ‘Twould make Brexit look like a crowning advancement of the human condition.

#110 Oakville Rocks! on 02.21.21 at 6:10 pm

@#75 The Jaguar
WOW – what a sense of entitlement and grievance.

I confess, my comment was a jab at you. But it was in reference to your still ludicrous comment thanking Ontario & Quebec & the Maritimes for electing Liberals. As if there is a conspiracy to deny Alberta a role in government executed by the people in the East. I had no idea that “national elections in this country are decided in some parts of the country and not as a collective whole, despite the contributions made to the national whole”. I always thought Albertans voted in national elections – who knew there were people out east voting on their behalf?

I am too busy to explain Parliamentary democracy to you so ask Garth. But I am pretty sure my single vote counts the same as yours.

Your comment is even more ludicrous when you consider that the Prime Minister before this one came from Calgary. Or perhaps you are one those, Steve Harper was born in Toronto so he is not really an Albertan types?

And made doubly ludicrous by the fact that you recently had an NDP provincial government. Oh wait, you blame transplant Canadians living in Alberta for that election too?

So, here is the authentic truth… each time an election is held I carefully consider my options and vote.

I know there are people who are so partisan one way that they never make a choice – they simply vote blue or red or orange even if the candidate is a ham sandwich. Perhaps this is you?

Mostly I vote Liberal or Conservative. I voted blue when Steve Harper ran against Paul Martin and I voted red in 2015. The last election, I can’t remember. I am not fond of the Liberal incumbent and I loathe Andrew Scheer equally. I thought he blew the campaign with nonsense. I may have voted Liberal because I feared a Liberal minority beholden to the NDP and had no confidence in Mr. Scheer to win.

Presently I belong to the federal CONSERVATIVE Party and Ontario PROVINCIAL PC’s (Team Blue). I give money to both as a yearly “charitable” donation.

I consider my vote private but there was one time I had a lawn sign.. it was red. Do you know the name on that sign? Garth Turner. Interesting that.

Last confession, I am really roasting chicken. Last week I roasted beef after watching season 3 of Yellowstone. My dog loves roast chicken which also apparently comes mostly for Alberta.. so thanks in advance.

I don’t expect your thanks for my yearly contribution to the Conservative party but if you could get them to stop calling during dinner time I would appreciate it so much.

#111 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 6:14 pm

Swat Team captured Jaguar and I am being held captive in the cells under the old Courthouse where the City of Calgary briefly contemplated holding the Zoo Tigers during the great flood of 2013. A supporter has slipped a note under the door of my cell :++

“”In simple terms, the 1936 default was the result of a power struggle between eastern banking interests and the newly elected Social Credit government of Alberta under Premier Bill Aberhart. “The banks worked with the newly created Bank of Canada to, in effect, isolate the province,” . “There was a great fear that the Social Credit contagion would go to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, who were also in desperate straits.”

The federal government had agreed to lend Alberta the money to pay its maturing bonds. At the same time, however, it was putting pressure on the province to join a newly created Loan Council designed to “co-ordinate the borrowings of the federal and provincial governments.”

The loan wasn’t supposed to be conditional upon council membership, but when Alberta decided it would be foolhardy to “filch away” financial sovereignty, the federal government reneged on its loan promise. On April 1, 1936, Alberta became “the first, and only, provincial government in Canada’s history to default on the principal of a maturing obligation,” .

++The note further says my rescue/release is underway. Viva Alberta, Viva Revolution, Long Live a Free Alberta!

o.k. figure I will get my first ‘delete’ if I push it past this post……….

#112 Prince Polo on 02.21.21 at 6:17 pm

This post would be depressing, were I not remembering my dream of GTA avg prices rocketing to $10M. Diamond hands, everyone. As a lowly and pathetic renter, I look forward to this day, so I can visit the waterfront and see all the mega-yachts coming to dock. Oh Monaco North, I cannot wait for thee!

#113 millmech on 02.21.21 at 6:18 pm

Secondary lenders going gangbusters right now, as Bank of Mom is tapped out, so many people “winning” the bidding war are having to pony up more cash as the appraisal for the bank does not match what their winning bid is.
The alternative lenders are more than willing to lend 100k+ for anywhere from 8%-20% for a one year term.
There are a lot of people in this boat now and if things go sideways or down or interest rates start to climb and they have to sell they could be in a world of hurt.
So that house that your friends got could be carrying three mortgages technically, first one to the bank, second on to the alternative lender, third to Mom.

#114 joblo on 02.21.21 at 6:19 pm

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/10/05/maverick-party-to-target-49-strong-conservative-ridings-in-western-canada-in-the-next-election/266209

#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm
Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

Lieberal majority on the way, Woohoo

Kanadian entertainment at its finest

#115 Tom from Mississauga on 02.21.21 at 6:19 pm

Houses, dogs and now the show up at work market, there is 30,000 job postings on Indeed just for Mississauga and we’re still in lockdown. My work has had 5 forklift operators poached since the New Year just on the afternoon shift. Indeed ran ads on every commercial break during last night’s Leafs/Canadians game.

#116 Yukon Elvis on 02.21.21 at 6:22 pm

#72 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 3:39 pm

My plan has me in blue chip Canadian Dividend payers which are currently paying me 4.95% per year. These companies tend to increase their dividends at a rate greater than the rate of inflation. The said dividends are eligible for the dividend tax credit so as long as I manage the withdrawals from my wife and my RRSP’s carefully our tax rate will be under 1% (going up slightly when CPP and OAS kick in, but then I will also qualify for old age credit).
So my withdrawal rate is 4.95%, good chance it will keep up with inflation, the capital amount should increase as the dividends are increased and this can continue on indefinitely.
Serious question to you Soggy, or anyone else who wants to pick this apart, what am I missing?

PS. I do realize Garth’s B&D portfolio would average a return 7% but this strategy should do about the same with 4.95% return and another 2% or so capital appreciation.
I’m all ears.
……………………………….
I have been buying div paying blue chippers for a very long time too. Average dividend return is 6% and capital appreciation is way more than 2%, more like 5-6% cuz I buy the dips. Otherwise I drip the divs quarterly. Made out like a bandit. I don’t think you missed anything. I like your plan.

#117 Ustabe on 02.21.21 at 6:28 pm

@ #104 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 5:37 pm

Curmudgeon is an all-encompassing word for a person who finds no joy in life. None. But I do. Very much.

I’d list the accomplishments my wife and I have achieved but unlike you I wouldn’t attach a dollar figure to them because that is inconsequential to the point…which is something you seem to miss often.

Your condescending and self-aggrandizing manner of posting is indicative of a lack of confidence. You try and come across as confident and successful but purchasing tourist production art and needing to drop how much you paid in taxes screams the opposite. For instance.

A few weeks ago you posted something along the lines of every person on your staff brings in so much in dollar volume monthly. My friend who is the director and operating partner in the local McElhanney firm says bull and I’ll go with his take. An exaggeration that makes sense to only you.

Here is some advice. Garth often talks of his accomplishments. He, rightly, is proud of the buildings he has saved, the jobs he has created and the life he has lived. As am I. Although I don’t talk of my accomplishments unless there is some discussion making that germane to the conversation. For instance my wife and I recently celebrated our 45th…without our kids because they are no longer in our bubble and we willingly follow health advisories because we want this all to be over for everyone. You however post about your international travel. I wonder to what end?

You also seem to need to point out how rich selling your house that you only bought so your child could go to university made you or how much you spent on your third purebred dog when the people running the seeing eye dog program can not afford to purchase dogs any longer.

etc. etc.

Can you see the difference? Because if not, I could go on and on…

#118 AB on 02.21.21 at 6:33 pm

#75 The Jaguar
Excellent comments. Well said. And Garth, as much as I appreciate this blog and your financial advice, your reply to Jaguar was typical “Laurentian elite speak.” Never say never. These are crazy days.

#119 KLNR on 02.21.21 at 6:47 pm

@#92 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 4:46 pm
@Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

We’ll pull a “Crimea”, we all speak ethnic American here! We want to join the motherland, deplorables and all!
——-
You jest, of course. But there are some who think US annexation is possible. It is not. Hey, here’s a thought – why not start an Alberta-based political party to represent your interests in Parliament, splitting the vote and guaranteeing a Liberal majority? You could call it something like ‘Reform’. – Garth

bwahahaha.
zing.

#120 Russ on 02.21.21 at 6:54 pm

Dr V on 02.21.21 at 3:16 pm

50 DON…But….but…..it’s the hipster haven of….CUMBERLAND!!!!…..
————————————–

Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 3:31 pm

Cucumberland is a special breed,Was there not long ago, Still don’t like it
======================

Cumberland is the “backwoods” part of Mid-Island. It’s where we go to hear banjos and walk the woods looking for stills.
.

Brings to mind a memory, a Van Isle 360 race during the stopover in Comox, at the field ceremonies near the marina.

Sail Away:
“Hey Russ. Want to come with the gang for a quick trip to Cumberland?”

Russ:
“No thanks, I’ll stay near the rum.
Before you go, do you know the toothbrush was invented in Cumberland?”

Sail Away:
“No. I didn’t know that.”

Russ:
“Yup! If it was invented anywhere else it would be called the teethbrush.”

((insert knee slap))

#121 Don Guillermo on 02.21.21 at 6:57 pm

#75 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 3:50 pm
Just scrolling through the comments today, and there is an excerpt that deserves to be highlighted.

You don’t have to be a genius to see this comment for what it really is….
***********************************
Jag, As a BC boy that moved to Calgary from the GTA many years ago, I feel exactly as you do about this.

#84 millenlial on 02.21.21 at 4:22 pm
DELETED Anti-Alberta
********************************
DELETED Anti-Alberta … oh wow, that’s rich!

#122 Bezengy on 02.21.21 at 6:57 pm

#98 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 5:05 pm
#91 Barb on 02.21.21 at 4:40 pm

Over the last 5 or 10 years, I’ve never seen so many disrespectful and bad-mannered kids of all ages.

————

People have been saying that since grunting passed for language.

————

Very true…..at least since 400 BC

The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.

Socrates

#123 Prince Polo on 02.21.21 at 7:10 pm

Captain BillyBob, any comments on the latest?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/us/boeing-777-airplanes-federal-aviation-administration/index.html

#124 Nonplused on 02.21.21 at 7:12 pm

#56 expensive on 02.21.21 at 2:32 pm

“Children are expensive. As per CNN report and various other surveys, it costs over $1,000,000 to raise a child.”

$1,000,000? More fake news from CNN. I am sure you could spend $1,000,000 if you had the money but most children cost what you can afford to spend. There are lots of folks out there raising 2 (or more) kids on $70,000 a year so there is no way they are spending $1,000,000 on each kid.

However if you don’t have kids you can probably retire at 50, so there is that.

#125 Nonplused on 02.21.21 at 7:14 pm

#57 Socrates on 02.21.21 at 2:36 pm

“Having read your blog since the beginning I realize now the high likelihood of the extinction of humans .Based on the motivation of real estate purchases during the covid mania, the recent media pictures of the planet Mars gives us a good vision of humanities future on earth.”

All societies collapse, all species go extinct, and all suns explode. But hey it was fun while it lasted.

#126 Doug t on 02.21.21 at 7:16 pm

The U.S.A is heading for a Depression

Amerika is heading for a Depression

“Unfortunately for the central bankers, their policy of giving trillions in free money for financiers and speculators is suffering from diminishing returns : where $100 billion once had a significant effect on financial markets, now $1 trillion no longer has any effect at all, and so the only dose that causes the patient’s eyelids to flicker briefly is $3 trillion–no wait a minute, make that $5 trillion, nope, not enough, make it $10 trillion, yikes, still not enough, pump in $20 trillion!
Though few seem to be aware of it, we’re tottering on that cliff edge. The final manifestation of central bankers’ insane folly is the promise that endless wealth can be yours if only you join the speculative extremes racing over the cliff. Maybe the immense herd of speculators will all magically grow wings once they’re in free-fall; that’s no more insane than counting on speculative asset bubbles to magically create real enterprises and jobs.
This madness is now global, so next up: global depression. The story of the past year hasn’t changed: blowing an even bigger speculative asset bubble is the sure cure; the latest “fix” to the pandemic will make it go away forever and ever, and everything that was broken before the pandemic will magically be restored by the magic of ever larger and more precarious speculative asset bubbles.“

#127 Joe Schmoe on 02.21.21 at 7:21 pm

You jest, of course. But there are some who think US annexation is possible. It is not. Hey, here’s a thought – why not start an Alberta-based political party to represent your interests in Parliament, splitting the vote and guaranteeing a Liberal majority? You could call it something like ‘Reform’. – Garth

Thanks Garth…was in a grumpy mood but that made me laugh.

I am a born and raised Albertan…no one outside of the crazies think leaving Canada is viable/rational.

We can despise Trudeau and like Canada at the same time. I am sad I am missing visiting the rest of Canada for the second summer in a row. Love Atlantic Canada. Was hoping for a Quebec tour soon.

#128 Rossco on 02.21.21 at 7:24 pm

Alberta can’t secede.
That probably is true, but we may go that way anyhow.
It’s obvious that the current Federation with the Liberal Laurentian group in power most of the time is bad for Alberta.
But the Conservative Laurentian group isn’t much better.
It doesn’t much matter if we vote or who we vote for really.
Sometimes you get in a fight knowing you’ll probably lose, but you do it anyhow cause it’s about principle and respect. You go down swingin.
Alberta has oil, gas, coal, water, wheat, barley, canola, peas, beef, dairy, hogs. You name it. We got it.
Our Federal Conservative reps in Alberta are weak.
Our Provincial Conservatives are weak.
The whole country, Alberta included, has shifted way to far left for this 4th generation born and bred Albertan.
Sometimes I care and sometimes I don’t.
I have been thinking more and more about an exit plan lately.
Maybe Mexico or more south.
Maybe Philippines. Maybe Portugal.
I don’t know but I’m not happy.

#129 Stagflation on 02.21.21 at 7:33 pm

Rising prices in a hurting economy….

Listening to a real estate agent and chasing overblown housing prices will most likely be a very bad move. High unemployment with rising prices and interest rates ? How is that going to work out ? The BoC will have no choice but to raise rates to control inflation even in the face of the damage being done to the economy.

This is just one reason why I love Bitcoin. Its a vote against the Central Bankers. At over 1 trillion Bitcoin is just getting started and could replace the worthless USD. I wouldn’t be surprised if the FED is secretly buying it.

#130 Where there's a will ... on 02.21.21 at 7:39 pm

#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm

Great. Thanks for reminding me of all the services that I receive from the taxes that I pay every year.

At no point did I say that people shouldn’t have children. Not my business and I don’t care. I merely said I don’t want to pay for YOUR children. End of story!
___________________________________________
It is admirable that you are pulling your own weight and paying your way. But who’s the bigger man? One who pays his way or the one who pays his way and pulls up a less fortunate one behind him?
___________________________________________

Well, I guess that makes me the bigger man! We will be leaving 8 (yes, 8 figures worth) figures to charity when we are done our time on this earth. 30% going to training dogs for the purpose of assisting those with disabilities (blind,deaf, diabetic, etc). The rest to split between local education (bursaries, awards, scholarships) and hospices.

If you doubt me, think about it! If you don’t have children, where else would you be leaving it?

So please don’t go on how people without children don’t contribute MORE than their fair share and help others in need. It’s not too late to change my will!

#131 Captain Uppa on 02.21.21 at 7:44 pm

Michael Burry says Weimar style hyper-inflation is around the corner.

What say you, Garth?

Not a chance. – Garth

#132 Albertastrophe on 02.21.21 at 7:44 pm

#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm
Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth
________________________________

Sadly, Alberta is already going to be too desperate financially to secede.

The total bungling of the Heritage Fund and the ongoing denial of climate change are now locked in to Alberta’s very painful future, rife with lack of planning and consideration of anything but hard-core Conservative ideas for the economy.

No one will win a vote to secede by 2023 when so many will depend on federal welfare payments to cover the exorbitant heating costs for their formerly $800,000 homes, now worth about $120,000. (If they are lucky)

The best hope is that parts of Alberta become like the Elliot Lake of western Canada, a cheap retirement place for poorer seniors.

But by 2100, who knows, there may be a new future….

#133 Nonplused on 02.21.21 at 7:58 pm

#60 IHCTD9 on 02.21.21 at 2:56 pm
#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm
#94 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.21.21 at 3:45 am
#186 Sweet child o’ mine on 02.20.21 at 7:02 pm
#148 Father’s Daughter on 02.19.21 at 10:45 pm

So no, #137, you are welcome

________________________

I love how people try to lamely justify how their children are beneficial to me…as if my very survival is dependent on your children.

All I said is that I don’t want to pay for them. They are yours… You decided to bring them into this world. You pay for them. Without me subsidizing their education and your tax concessions, you would know how expensive they really are! After all, I am sure your children are just lovely and sweet… Just not to me!

——————————————

Not sure who wrote that comment but here is my take for you who chose to remain childless but are all grumpy about government funded education:

You could think about your school taxes as repaying your own government funded education.

Ya, it hurts to think about it that way, doesn’t it? You thought your parents paid for it. But somebody paid for theirs too. The only group that really got screwed was the taxpayers who paid in but never got a “free” education when the system was first created. But they are all dead now.

I mean what’s next? I don’t want to pay for government funded health care because I’m not sick? Well, we can look south of the boarder to see how that goes.

I am very much opposed to socialism, but certain things we all benefit from like schools, roads, water and sewer systems, health care, etc., make sense to be paid for collectively, since we all use them. (Yes even you folks that don’t have kids, you probably went to school.) And understand that the schools are providing a pretty basic level of education. If you want to send your kid to a “good private school”, the costs to you personally go up significantly. Way higher than property taxes, which you still pay.

About the universities I am not so sure. Tuition is amazingly cheap in Canada when compared to the US because the government highly subsidizes it. And certain disciplines are proven to enhance a student’s lifetime earnings (STEM, accounting, law, etc.). But we have a progressive tax system so those folks probably do end up paying it back and more.

Some folks do get screwed though. My immigrant father dropped out of school after grade 9 (but he did go to SAIT, which at that time did not require grade 12 for trades), and he’s paid more taxes than most of the people that read this blog. Trades are a good thing because they often lead to businesses. Long live Mike Rowe. But trades without trade schools? Plumbers who know what they are doing would be a lot more expensive than the stupidly crazy rates you already pay.

#134 Captain Uppa on 02.21.21 at 8:09 pm

#131 Captain Uppa on 02.21.21 at 7:44 pm
Michael Burry says Weimar style hyper-inflation is around the corner.

What say you, Garth?

Not a chance. – Garth

—————————————-

What makes you so sure?

Because, unlike you & the other guy (apparently) I know what hyperinflation is: 50% or greater monthly price acceleration. The rate is currently less than 0.15%. It has never happened here or in the US and never will. Worry about real things. – Garth

#135 Nonplused on 02.21.21 at 8:11 pm

#76 The Woosh on 02.21.21 at 4:01 pm
Alberta will never, and can’t ever, secede. – Garth

—————————————————

There’s no such thing as “will never” and/or “can’t ever”. The universe is fluid.

When it comes to the lawful secession of a province the word is ‘never.’ If you think you can shoot your way out, well, that would be interesting. – Garth

————————————-

The time to secede was probably when we had all the money. Wouldn’t make much difference now.

In any case we might not have to if the feds keep borrowing so much money. They might be the ones who disappear!

#136 binky barnes on 02.21.21 at 8:16 pm

But by 2100, who knows, there may be a new future….

————————————————–

Will Mr. Justin Trudeau still be in Office? We can only hope. This man is the absolute pinnacle of Canadian politicians: he stands alone. His integrity is unquestioned, his intellect searing and his selflessness is as wondrous as his hair. What a marvel he is.

BB

#137 DON on 02.21.21 at 8:32 pm

Reform Party….lmao. Nice one Garth.

#138 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 8:33 pm

#110 Oakville Rocks! on 02.21.21 at 6:10 pm
@#75 The Jaguar
I confess, my comment was a jab at you. +++

Thanks for the confession. You proved my point. I have posted more than once about who elected the Liberals, as have many others.

Here is the real lesson:
“I confess, my comment was a jab at you…”
Really? So many days after I posted such a comment? One which statistics bear out as accurate?

Guess it ‘stung’ , but then again “If the shoe fits, then wear it”.
Allow me my own confession. I could give a flying ___ what you think.

#139 45north on 02.21.21 at 8:33 pm

Just Around the Corner

I guess buyers have to look at the last time there was these types of bidding wars and 30% price increases and then look what happened after. The answer is 2017 – and what happened after was continued price appreciation until the 2020 pandemic, and then another 30% price appreciation with limited inventory.

here’s a chart of the last time

Year over Year Change in Suburban House Prices – GTA

https://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2017-Bubble-modified.png?x70502

the whole point of the chart is that prices do go down and if you’re not 100% prepared for a price drop you’ve no business buying.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.21 at 8:36 pm

Pub dog …..hilarious

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w4FJCcZTKU

#141 starj on 02.21.21 at 8:36 pm

Interest rates will never significantly rise. It’s just simply not a thing the govt/BoC will allow.

In Calgary I am about go $600k into a house before I get priced out forever.

#142 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 8:45 pm

@#121 Don Guillermo on 02.21.21 at 6:57 pm

***********************************
Jag, As a BC boy that moved to Calgary from the GTA many years ago, I feel exactly as you do about this.

#84 millenlial on 02.21.21 at 4:22 pm
DELETED Anti-Alberta
********************************
DELETED Anti-Alberta … oh wow, that’s rich!

Says a lot when ‘Anti-Alberta’ has a place with anti vax, and other sentiments that bubble up…
So much for the myth of ‘Unity and Good Fellowship” among provinces. But we already knew that.
Another affirmation.

#143 Regjeg on 02.21.21 at 8:57 pm

I tuned into an IG retirement planning webinar yesterday. When asked “what’s your portfolio stabilizer strategy when interest rates rise and bond prices drop?” the rep’s response was “When interest rates go up, so do equities”.

#144 Faron on 02.21.21 at 9:05 pm

#120 Russ on 02.21.21 at 6:54 pm

Dr V on 02.21.21 at 3:16 pm

50 DON…But….but…..it’s the hipster haven of….CUMBERLAND!!!!…..

======================

Cumberland is the “backwoods” part of Mid-Island.

I can see how it may have been like that some point in the recent past. But, when’s the last time you were in Cumby? Nowadays the town is filled with $5000 mtn bikes and shiny SUVs and everyone wears uggs and yoga pants and Patagucci puffies while waiting in line for hipster burritos at the Biblio.

#145 Faron on 02.21.21 at 9:19 pm

While Burry might not be right about hyperinflation, his thread is still up on Twitter and makes a good read. He deletes tweets on the regular, so get it while you can.

A more upbeat look from who, to me, is a very smart man can be found at Cem Karsan’s jam_croissant. He combines macro with market microstructure and his view is that the rest of Feb is kinda the bears’ last chance. The market structure is weak (meaning that downward moves have a greater than average chance of gaining momentum). But, that window closes soon, new stimmies are set to roll out just as Biden announces more stimulus initiatives and the virus makes its last gasps. With the massive role call-buying now plays in markets, things are set to explode upwards. Industrials, diversified financials, materials, commodities — everything that likes higher rates and inflationary pressure.

Notable to me, but I haven’t read commentary, is that the NASDAQ closed up Friday while the front month futures closed down — these usually track fairly closely. My read is that higher rates are going to start to spook tech sooner than later. Might be good to take profit there and load up on other sectors.

#146 Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 9:19 pm

#106
Faron on 02.21.21 at 5:48 pm

All true,I have friends in Bend OR
For a old coal town, It went the a full 360
A good pizza,Try Roberts Street pizza in Ladysmith,last I had it was great.

#147 Westcoaster on 02.21.21 at 9:23 pm

#120 Russ on 02.21.21 at 6:54 pm

Time to get the dualing banjos out,knee slapping fun.

Mostly old rotten shacks,with a bandaid

#148 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 9:33 pm

#117 Ustabe on 02.21.21 at 6:28 pm

Can you see the difference? Because if not, I could go on and on…

————-

It escapes me. Please continue.

#149 Bguy1 on 02.21.21 at 9:41 pm

Some of these Maverick/Wexit supporters seem to believe that The Clarity Act is unconstitutional and can be challenged via The Supreme Court

#150 Sail Away on 02.21.21 at 10:07 pm

#122 Bezengy on 02.21.21 at 6:57 pm

“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

-Socrates

—————

His less judgemental brother Mediocrates said: ‘Ehh… the kids are ok’

#151 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 10:12 pm

144 Faron – that was my impression a couple of springs ago. Not guilty on the $5k mtn bike (yet anyways).

Hey, isn’t the Biblio next to the little place Don, Penny and I are going in on?

#152 willworkforpickles on 02.21.21 at 10:12 pm

#141 starj
“Interest rates will never significantly rise. It’s just simply not a thing the govt/BoC will allow.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
It’s not up to them anyway.
The Fed will raise rates slowly then more significantly later in response to continuing to add to the national debt…(they will have to) The buyers and holders of runaway US debt, with confidence in holding more US debt waning will dictate when.
Canada will follow the US rate.

The alternative: No to US rate escalation…default and the end of the US world reserve currency status…leading to hyperinflation on a scale never seen anywhere before then eventual mass starvation.

So that”s not happening (not anytime soon)

So up go rates.

#153 Russ on 02.21.21 at 10:14 pm

Faron on 02.21.21 at 9:05 pm

======================

Cumberland is the “backwoods” part of Mid-Island.


I can see how it may have been like that some point in the recent past. But, when’s the last time you were in Cumby? Nowadays the town is filled with $5000 mtn bikes and shiny SUVs and everyone wears uggs and yoga pants and Patagucci puffies while waiting in line for hipster burritos at the Biblio.
=========================

Hi Faron,

Cumberland is a three dressed up as a nine… kinda like Starbucks or Timmies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3uH-vamqJg

I was there last summer and almost every summer before that. You may not recall that the missus and I cruise the Island by motorbike as well as the yacht.

We are supporters of Harmonic Arts, a pretentious little natural pathetic company. Did a couple of their “workshops” in better days. (It’s one of the wife’s favourites.)

Even the Fish & Game club will not claim to be from Cumberland.
https://courtenayfishandgame.org/

Love the area though, which is why we go back there every year but it can be pretentious. Kinda like a millennial maybe.

Cheers, R

#154 Colin on 02.21.21 at 10:42 pm

*132 – Albertastrophe, you really think Calgary and Medicine Hat houses might drop to about $120,000 in the next few years?

I am betting on a little lower, maybe $60-80K for a SFD.

Just cannot see what will possibly prop up that economy after what we’re staring at right now down the road. After COVID, there will be a huge climate reckoning, no return to the old normal.

Some good vultching ahead when the bankruptcies and exodus take hold in Alberta, for sure.

#155 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 10:42 pm

#116 Yukon Elvis on 02.21.21 at 6:22 pm
#72 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 3:39 pm

I have been buying div paying blue chippers for a very long time too. Average dividend return is 6% and capital appreciation is way more than 2%, more like 5-6% cuz I buy the dips. Otherwise I drip the divs quarterly. Made out like a bandit. I don’t think you missed anything. I like your plan.

///////////////

well I’m not drippin I’m spending, and I have noticed your comments on this subject many time before. Thanks for your input.

#156 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 10:48 pm

#124 Nonplused on 02.21.21 at 7:12 pm
However if you don’t have kids you can probably retire at 50, so there is that.

/////////////////

On this I can agree with you.

As for me I can shoot a gun but can’t kill a rabbit.
(hope I got that right)

#157 Bob Loblaw on 02.21.21 at 10:50 pm

Going to be a lot of disappointed buyers that bought properties, sight unseen, relying on dressed up fish eye pictures from the REALTOR online listings. Those pics make the properties look twice as large!

#158 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 10:52 pm

Hey Garth, seeing that TurnerNation has been pretty good with his prophecies how about upping him to 3 posts a day?

He did take your name.

#159 AB on 02.21.21 at 11:00 pm

Bguy1
It’s quite telling when you take umbrage with Alberta’s legitimate grievances with the current corrupt Federation.
So sorry to have riled you up old boy.

#160 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 11:01 pm

#138 the Jaguar on 02.21.21 at 8:33 pm
.
Allow me my own confession. I could give a flying ___ what you think.
//////////////

Wow, Jag’s been drinking.
Not the chardonnay I think, probably the rye.

And by the way I think it is ‘I couldn’t give a flying ____’

#161 cowtown cowboy on 02.21.21 at 11:20 pm

#128 Rossco on 02.21.21 at 7:24 pm

Alberta can’t secede.
That probably is true, but we may go that way anyhow.
It’s obvious that the current Federation with the Liberal Laurentian group in power most of the time is bad for Alberta.
But the Conservative Laurentian group isn’t much better.
It doesn’t much matter if we vote or who we vote for really.
Sometimes you get in a fight knowing you’ll probably lose, but you do it anyhow cause it’s about principle and respect. You go down swingin.
Alberta has oil, gas, coal, water, wheat, barley, canola, peas, beef, dairy, hogs. You name it. We got it.
Our Federal Conservative reps in Alberta are weak.
Our Provincial Conservatives are weak.
The whole country, Alberta included, has shifted way to far left for this 4th generation born and bred Albertan.
Sometimes I care and sometimes I don’t.
I have been thinking more and more about an exit plan lately.
Maybe Mexico or more south.
Maybe Philippines. Maybe Portugal.
I don’t know but I’m not happy.

———————————————————
Until recently I used to feel like you..I’m 4th of 5th generation Albertan..gets a bit fuzzy in the late 1800’s

Now I’m like, hey if it’s free it’s me! Got my free $20k from the canadian taxpayer, had our MLA board meeting last week and we can expect massive deficits to you know, protect the old and weak, as the country’s been doing a bang up job of that. I can’t wait for Alberta to become a massive anchor on the finances of this country and we can all sit around and live off the taxes from the retards in ON and BC buying and selling real-estate to each other…

On another note, FULLY 40% of our useless civil service was paid to sit at home and do nothing, cuz, you know, they didn’t have the ability to work form home…..seriously I’m not making this up…kinda makes you wonder what we needed them for in the first place…Oh Yeah…to vote liberal

#162 Oakville Rocks on 02.21.21 at 11:24 pm

#138 @ Jaguar

Your comment thanking Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes for the Liberal election did not sting. I responded at the time with hyperbole as I did again today. I was teasing you mostly but it seems you are overly sensitive.

This sort of comment strikes me mostly as childish. My guy, my party did not win so I am going to take all my marbles and go home and blame everyone else. Seems silly to me.

I thought perhaps you would have the courage to explain this nonsense… “national elections in this country are decided in some parts of the country and not as a collective whole, despite the contributions made to the national whole”.

But perhaps not.

Am I wrong, or was the previous federal government (almost 10 years in power) not run by a man representing a riding in Calgary and many cabinet members from AB as well?

The distribution of seats in the HOC per capita seems about even with obvious advantages going to the maritimes & territories.

If you want a Conservative party to win the next election what are you personally going to do about it? Besides sit here and play the victim.

If you don’t care what I think, why respond? I have noticed you do not respond to anyone who offers pushback to some of the silly things you write.

Sorry I did not mean to start an anti-Alberta thread here. I sell equipment across Canada and spend hours on the phone / email conversing with our AB customers each week. I never hear this nonsense from them or our AB rep nor do I hear it when I am there. Then again , they are in healthcare and are too busy working right now.

If you don’t like the government – work to change it.

Or not. Maybe it is more fruitful to spend your time posting commentary on someone else’s blog.

#163 Oh Oh sticky pasta on 02.21.21 at 11:42 pm

#148 Sail Away

It escapes me. Please continue.

————-

Every time you post I get a mental image of small man wearing a court jesters hat and green tights running around yelling “Look at me” “Look at me”

#164 tyberius on 02.22.21 at 12:35 am

#61 Comments
Add to your list:
Most intense insider selling ever (or close to it). They know what’s coming. Cash is about to be Kinged again – all within 6 months, almost certainly.

#165 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 02.22.21 at 2:43 am

#47 Russ on 02.20.21 at 6:48 pm

At the risk of offending others by omission I will not mention: ……………
IHTD9
Sail Away

—————————————————————-
Hey, hey, some of us enjoy the postings of Sail Away and IHCTD9. They express themselves in a rational, eloquent, wry, witty style and understand debate. I’ve picked up some good info and useful suggestions/tips from both.

Sail Away also gentlemanly posted a nice thank you when I shared a link I thought a few blog dogs would find interesting. Gentlemanly manners go a long way with me.

I discovered this blog quite by accident when a link showd up in the results while searching for something completely different. I found Mr. Turner’s post to be astute, so read that current post, then went back and read the very first post and a number of randomly picked posts from the years in between, just to see how accurate Mr Turner was in his predictions. Previous posts confirmed Mr. Turner to be insightful and I have been a regular reader ever since. (Thank you, Mr. Turner for the wisdom you are graciously and generously sharing.)

At first I read every comment but that changed. I now skim a few words in the comment and look at the poster’s name to see if it is worth reading. Some are always worth reading. Some are never worth reading.
Some days the index finger gets tired.

And Faron does take up a disproportionate amount of real estate in the comments section.

P.S. – Turner Nation is an intriguing read that I appreciate mulling over. I am not a doomsday prepper but have enough life experiences to not be a naive Pollyanna either. I try to keep an open, inquiring mind and assess rationally.

#166 SoggyShorts on 02.22.21 at 3:23 am

#72 Penny Henny on 02.21.21 at 3:39 pm
#44 SoggyShorts on 02.21.21 at 1:54 pm

Serious question to you Soggy, or anyone else who wants to pick this apart, what am I missing?

******************
The 4% rule was based on history, basically, if you retired at any point in history what are your chances that your money lasts for 30 years at various levels of withdrawal? It turns out that 4% Withdrawal Rate had a success rate of just under 100%. A 5% WR failed over 25% of the time (more on this below)

Sure you are getting 4.95% dividends now, but there is no guarantee that they will continue to
“tend to increase dividends at a greater rate than inflation” that could stop, or even reverse with a cut in dividends.

Remember, there really isn’t any such thing as dividends, there are only company profits, and they can either be reinvested internally raising stock value or shared with stockholders as dividends.

E.G. there is no difference between share price going up 7% or going up 2% and paying a 5% dividend.

Betting that your investments will always payout 5% plus go up faster than inflation (2%) is no different than betting that a company will always go up 7%.
————————————
Here’s a nasty bit of history:
If you retired during any random month since 1950 and maintained a steady 5% withdrawal rate your money would have run out in under 30 years 23% of the time!
Totally unacceptable.
♦A 5% WR failed 19% of the time since 1926.
♦If you only look at retirement months when the S&P has been at an all-time high the failure rate goes up to 30%
♦If you look at retirement months when the Shiller CAPE was greater than 30 (it’s 35 now) the failure rate jumps to 42%, and back down to 0% at a WR of 3.75%
—————————————-
On another note, while the tax break is nice on Canadian dividends, it’s not worth putting all of your eggs in the Canadian basket IMO. There are just way too many anti-business policies here and socialist leanings not to mention we aren’t super diversified.

With a clever withdrawal plan from TFSAs, RRSPs, and non-reg a couple can pull over $100,000 out per year and pay around 2% in taxes even without the Dividend credit.

Hope that helps without being too doomy.

#167 maxx on 02.22.21 at 7:02 am

Not all dog owners are responsible.

There are too many untrained and badly-behaved dogs and this will become a real problem. Unclaimed crap on walkways and cycle paths in addition to off-leash craziness is on the rise.

The contrast with European owners is stark. Not a single dog I came into contact with in the UK for example, has ever jumped unbidden on us.

Potential owners should have to prove that they are capable of caring for a living creature by taking a course and pay an annual license fee, unlike the unbridled, free-for-all that currently exists.

Maybe we should license people to have children, while we’re at it? Many of them seem poorly trained. – Garth

#168 Love_The_Cottage on 02.22.21 at 7:13 am

#166 SoggyShorts on 02.22.21 at 3:23 am

Remember, there really isn’t any such thing as dividends, there are only company profits, and they can either be reinvested internally raising stock value or shared with stockholders as dividends.

E.G. there is no difference between share price going up 7% or going up 2% and paying a 5% dividend.
_________
Excellent point, many people don’t seem to get this.

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.22.21 at 8:16 am

@#144 Faron
“But, when’s the last time you were in Cumby? Nowadays the town is filled with $5000 mtn bikes and shiny SUVs and everyone wears uggs and yoga pants and Patagucci puffies while waiting in line for hipster burritos at the Biblio.”

++++

And people say Boomers are destroying the planet with their consumerism.

#170 IHCTD9 on 02.22.21 at 8:23 am

#120 Russ on 02.21.21 at 6:54 pm

…It’s where we go to hear banjos and walk the woods looking for stills.
————

Sounds like my kind of backwoods! (if they’re making Rum that is).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Ul8QCZvng

#171 Penny Henny on 02.22.21 at 8:24 am

#166 SoggyShorts on 02.22.21 at 3:23 am

Hope that helps without being too doomy.

///////////////

Yes, thanks for taking the time.

#172 Dharma Bum on 02.22.21 at 8:54 am

I love dogs.

Mostly – or, rather, completely – I love other peoples dogs.

Fun to play with, pet, feed, and romp around with. Then, either I go home, or they go home.

Win – Win.

#173 Bguy1 on 02.22.21 at 9:08 am

“#159 AB on 02.21.21 at 11:00 pm”

Do whatever you want, have a Referendum, go to town.

By virtue of its population size, Ontario has veto power, so good luck with that.

BTW, throughout most of the life of the Equalization Program, Ontario has paid more in then it gets back out, yet no one there seriously talks about separating.

Also, Manitoba gets more per capita in Federal Transfer Payments then Quebec. Why aren’t the Maverick supporters up in arms about that?

Garth is correct, nobody is leaving confederation, ever.

If you are pro seperation, at least have some accountability. Norway’s soverign wealth fund, started in 1990 is worth ~ 1 trillion dollars. Alberta’s, started in the 70s, worth several billion. You reap what you sow. Albertan’s wanted a low tax environment, with social programs funded by energy revenues. They got it. But actions have consequences. An 8% pst in Alberta would probably plug the current deficit. Best part of all, you could harmonize it, and not have to create an entire burcracy to administer it as the CRA would do it.

#174 the Jaguar on 02.22.21 at 9:15 am

#162 Oakville Rocks on 02.21.21 at 11:24 pm
+++++

You already admitted your deliberate attempt to provoke: ‘I confess, my comment was a jab at you. ‘ +++ That’s on record, so your statement of “Sorry I did not mean to start an anti-Alberta thread here”, doesn’t stand up.

Then there is this:+++ ‘ I am too busy to explain Parliamentary democracy to you “, followed by this :’ “The distribution of seats in the HOC per capita seems about even with obvious advantages going to the maritimes & territories.”

Love this bit about my lack of courage ++ “I thought perhaps you would have the courage to explain this nonsense…”
+++Others have done it far more eloquently than I ever could. Start with the Fraser Institute or maybe just re-read this little snippet from one of the more intelligent ( not an Albertan)posters on this blog from a few days ago.
“Our feds will sell B.C. out for Yankee favours back east as per usual…..& …..sell the water to the Yanks & transfer the cash from Washington to Quebec & the Maritimes by way of Ottawa.”

And finally this gem : ‘Maybe it is more fruitful to spend your time posting commentary on someone else’s blog.’… It must be since that is exactly what you are doing, correct?

I won’t be responding further as I am hoping that after this exchange I will finally have learned the lesson that in wrestling with pigs, one only gets dirty and the pigs enjoy it.

That’s become more and more prevalent lately on the blog. I wouldn’t be the first to say it.
The real entertainment is about to unfold anyway and you are sure to be a part of it. The end.

#175 IHCTD9 on 02.22.21 at 9:23 am

#128 Rossco on 02.21.21 at 7:24 pm

The whole country, Alberta included, has shifted way to far left for this 4th generation born and bred Albertan.
Sometimes I care and sometimes I don’t.
I have been thinking more and more about an exit plan lately.
—— ——

Aye, and I doubt much on that line will change in my lifetime. Canada is unstable right now, and the current crop of voters aren’t the thick skinned hard backed Canucks of yore. We really think government can save us, and we who would rather save ourselves seem to be a fading minority.

I care most of the time (I have kids), but fretting over the current situation isn’t worth the aggravation and gets nothing good done. I’m happy to continue restricting my financial support for our leadership in Ottawa, and putting the proceeds into my family’s security for today, and the future. Doing something about it is my escape from the stupidity, contentment follows thereof.

“I must lose myself in action, lest I wither in despair.”

-Tennyson

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.22.21 at 9:25 am

@#156 Penny Henny
“As for me I can shoot a gun but can’t kill a rabbit.
(hope I got that right)”

+++++++

It’s pronounce “wabbit” if you cant shoot it.

#177 George S on 02.22.21 at 9:26 am

“You jest, of course. But there are some who think US annexation is possible. It is not. Hey, here’s a thought – why not start an Alberta-based political party to represent your interests in Parliament, splitting the vote and guaranteeing a Liberal majority? You could call it something like ‘Reform’. – Garth”

Excellent. Thank you.

What I have observed is that in rural areas of SK and AB there has been a sort of social media type of thing going on essentially forever, long before people even imagined that there would be such a thing as computers. It was the local restaurants, curling rinks, skating (hockey) rinks, grain elevator offices, etc. where people would meet every day all winter long to discuss things and reinforce each other’s beliefs, whether those beliefs were true or not. People in rural areas work essentially 24 hours a day for 7 or 8 months a year and have quite a bit of spare time in the winter unless they are cattle or dairy farmers who work like slaves all year round.
With the advent of satellite TV, Fox news, Radio talk shows (and tractor cabs with radios) people were exposed to American indoctrination almost completely year round and were able to discuss their opinions with other American indoctrinated individuals and work themselves into a frenzy of distorted impressions and beliefs.

Canada and the US are completely different. You have no right to keep and bear arms, and you cannot ever secede or separate. Quebec has a whole bunch of constitutional rights that we granted to them so that they would join Canada, other provinces don’t. First Nations are First Nations because they have certain rights that were granted to them by the British Monarchy in exchange for peacefully allowing the other people of Canada to live here. The British Monarchy technically owns all of Canada and we live here because they let us.

If you get a rescue dog from a northern community you are almost guaranteed to get a very interesting dog. The dogs may not be suitable for most owners though because they are usually large and quite wild. A friend got one from a really far northern community as a pup. They live on an acreage and the dog behaves a lot like a wolf. On walks it will occasionally pounce on a mouse chomp it and swallow it whole almost without breaking stride.

At least some of the people that were working in the many restaurants that will close because of Covid may be able to get jobs as professional dog walkers and dog daycare owners once the pandemic is under control and people stop WFH.

#178 Felix on 02.22.21 at 9:54 am

$167 maxx

“There are too many untrained and badly-behaved dogs and this will become a real problem. Unclaimed crap on walkways and cycle paths in addition to off-leash craziness is on the rise.”

Nice to meet a higher IQ, non-dog-lover on this blog.

#179 Habitt on 02.22.21 at 10:01 am

So where will all the future sales flow from? Immigration that’s where. That’s the only plan governments have here. Locals not having kids. NP we’ll import. Growth always more growth. Can’t get that carbon foot print down. Wonder why. We need a different economic model moving forward or not? Ok trash away.

#180 Sail Away on 02.22.21 at 10:21 am

#163 Oh Oh sticky pasta on 02.21.21 at 11:42 pm
#148 Sail Away

It escapes me. Please continue.

———–

Every time you post I get a mental image of small man wearing a court jesters hat and green tights running around yelling “Look at me” “Look at me”

———–

Not usually, but sometimes the wife requests the leprechaun outfit when she’s feeling frisky.

#181 westcdn on 02.22.21 at 10:26 am

I lost nearly $300,000 back in March 2021. It took a while to get it back but I did. I don’t want to do that again – it cost my wife back when I was poorer. I got it back then. She has no idea how much I made since the divorce. It was just luck and good decisions.

I do hunt down good people. They are leaders and I will invest. Do not discount people. As much I think of myself there are better and I will listen. Still there is nothing like a good women. I will hang tough.

I heard a story that 65 plus men prefer to still single because they want to make their own decisions and be free to live. It does have consequences but less.

#182 Sail Away on 02.22.21 at 10:32 am

Speaking of leprechauns… two friends regularly go on English pheasant shoots and they are highly encouraged by tradition to wear this ridiculous and ridiculously expensive heavy green wool outfit with knee-high boots and a cap. One has the outfit, the other does not.

A three day shoot with the whole gamut of stands, beaters, dog handlers, gun handlers, bird handlers, personal assistants runs around $20k CDN per person. I have thus far declined the invitation, but will probably try it at some point, partly because this particular shoot is held at Downton Estates (yes, the same as the show) and my wife would enjoy being there.

#183 mike from mtl on 02.22.21 at 10:45 am

#173 Bguy1 on 02.22.21 at 9:08 am
“#159 AB on 02.21.21 at 11:00 pm”

Do whatever you want, have a Referendum, go to town.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yep, the dummies here tried that, twice. Apart from passing threats thankfully no party is seriously pursuing “independence”.

Again who are they kidding?

>first the land owner Queen Liz II has to acknowledge and surrender (yeah right).
>the Feds have to agree (yeah right).
>then the International community most notably the USA has to acknowledge QC or AB as a country.
>somehow work trade deals with Canada and the US since we manufacture and grow basically nothing.
>somehow defend ourselves against an inevitable coup from the USA who wants to ‘fix’ a new rogue communist nation blocking the seaway to the great lakes. Other than the dirty oil why would the USA want to annex AB to gain another blue state? AB probably wouldn’t be a full state anyway, more like a territory think PR.

#184 Oh Oh sticky pasta on 02.22.21 at 11:14 am

#180 Sail Away on 02.22.21 at 10:21 am
#163 Oh Oh sticky pasta on 02.21.21 at 11:42 pm
#148 Sail Away

It escapes me. Please continue.

———–

Every time you post I get a mental image of small man wearing a court jesters hat and green tights running around yelling “Look at me” “Look at me”

———–

Not usually, but sometimes the wife requests the leprechaun outfit when she’s feeling frisky.

————

Well done!! Lol!

Hail the court jester!

#185 Doug in London on 02.22.21 at 11:41 am

With many people paying outrageous prices for houses, and many more getting a dog without really understanding what they’re getting into, I think these people have far too much money. What comes to mind is a hydroelectric power plant in times when the river is at record setting high flow rate. All the sluice gates are fully open, dumping all that surplus water down the spillway. All that water isn’t generating any power, it’s all potential energy going to waste.

#186 Dr V on 02.22.21 at 11:59 am

166 Soggy

“Remember, there really isn’t any such thing as dividends, there are only company profits, and they can either be reinvested internally raising stock value or shared with stockholders as dividends.”

Yes, it is essential to check the dividend payout ratio to add a degree of safety to both the dividend and the ability for the company to re-invest.

Remember though that blogger Penny is buying this stock for income. Growth or share price at any given
time is secondary. Buying a strong business near a low market point gives a good yield and potential for stock price increase.

The 5 banks were great deal last spring. Scooped a 7% yield based on purchase price. Stock is up 38% but I am not selling – I want that income, which has a long history of increasing over time.

#187 Back to the future on 02.22.21 at 12:15 pm

#181 westcdn on 02.22.21 at 10:26 am
I lost nearly $300,000 back in March 2021. It took a while to get it back but I did. I don’t want to do that again – it cost my wife back when I was poorer. I got it back then. She has no idea how much I made since the divorce. It was just luck and good decisions.

I do hunt down good people. They are leaders and I will invest. Do not discount people. As much I think of myself there are better and I will listen. Still there is nothing like a good women. I will hang tough.

I heard a story that 65 plus men prefer to still single because they want to make their own decisions and be free to live. It does have consequences but less.
…..
You may want to go to cash this week…. save yourself some grief….

#188 KLNR on 02.22.21 at 12:18 pm

@#174 the Jaguar on 02.22.21 at 9:15 am
#162 Oakville Rocks on 02.21.21 at 11:24 pm
+++++

I won’t be responding further as I am hoping that after this exchange I will finally have learned the lesson that in wrestling with pigs, one only gets dirty and the pigs enjoy it.

LOL, you are the pig.

#189 Faron on 02.22.21 at 12:27 pm

#151 Dr V on 02.21.21 at 10:12 pm

144 Faron – that was my impression a couple of springs ago. Not guilty on the $5k mtn bike (yet anyways).

For the record, nothing wrong with a $5k bike if you can afford one and if it gets used. Such gear can bring great joy. In surfing, beautiful boards that aren’t used are called wallhangers.

#153 Russ on 02.21.21 at 10:14 pm

3 dressed as a 9 is correct in my book too. I just don’t see it as backwoods anymore although not all cumbians from the old days have left. Frankly, you have to get outside of the radius of influence of Vancouver to find anything worthy of that title.

I’m continually mystified by how capricious the bestowal of “cool mountain town” is. In our road trip this summer, partner and I drove through all kinds of cool places. Why not Salmo? Trail? Slocan? Grand Forks? Keremeos? All stunning places and totally ignored. The Salmo Hotel was for sale for a song this summer. Price was under a mil and for that you get an 8 room hotel, restaurant, bar and retail space and a beautiful, historic building. Where’s Garth when you need him ;-).

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.22.21 at 8:16 am

In my limited view and experience (highly judgmental admittedly) there is no upper or lower age limit on cumbyness.

#190 Dr V on 02.22.21 at 12:52 pm

189 faron

“For the record, nothing wrong with a $5k bike if you can afford one and if it gets used.”

Everybody has their thing to spend on. Years back, I noticed a trend with many pursuits that kept coming back to $4k. As if market forces had determined this price to be the value which people put on their chosen activity. Maybe a months wages with a decent job?

I’ve heard $7k is the new $5k.

#191 millmech on 02.22.21 at 1:21 pm

#179 Habitt
Here is an interesting read on how long it takes successful immigrants to get up to speed, I do not think they have an idea or even track how long it takes immigrants to be self sufficient.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/325622/A-craftsmans-challenging-journey-in-setting-up-his-business

#192 Faron on 02.22.21 at 1:40 pm

#190 Dr V on 02.22.21 at 12:52 pm

189 faron

Yeah, I’ve noticed that too. Especially for activities with no further cost of entry like cycling, BC skiing, climbing, kayaking. I think you are right, a well-targeted demographic. Nice thing about trail running: Shoes $150, pack $150. Off you go.

Also amazes me that you can pick up a used 4kSB (means one of 4 knot Sail Boat or $4k Sht Box or some combo) for as low as $2000 bucks with a working engine and good enough sails and adventure the HECK out of that thing for a few years.

Of course, the nice gear is very eye opening when you get on it…

#193 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.22.21 at 1:45 pm

#130 Where there’s a will … on 02.21.21 at 7:39 pm
#27 User pay on 02.21.21 at 12:53 pm
___________________________________________
It is admirable that you are pulling your own weight and paying your way. But who’s the bigger man? One who pays his way or the one who pays his way and pulls up a less fortunate one behind him?
___________________________________________

Well, I guess that makes me the bigger man! We will be leaving 8 (yes, 8 figures worth) figures to charity when we are done our time on this earth. 30% going to training dogs for the purpose of assisting those with disabilities (blind,deaf, diabetic, etc). The rest to split between local education (bursaries, awards, scholarships) and hospices.

If you doubt me, think about it! If you don’t have children, where else would you be leaving it?

So please don’t go on how people without children don’t contribute MORE than their fair share and help others in need. It’s not too late to change my will!
================================
I’m sorry I did not clarify. It must have come out wrong.
I wanted it to mean that a bigger man would pay his taxes and be content to see the less fortunate in our society benefit.
We are actually not all created equal in the physical and mental sense. Some of us have low IQ’s, Some of us have crippling disabilities. Some of us are purely unfortunate to come from bad homes.
It’s people like you who have gone above and beyond to fund worthy charities.
My children have accessed the generosity of people like you through bursaries and grants. I can’t thank you and others like you enough.
I have counselled my kids to give back when they are able and to pay their taxes fairly and within the law. We know and understand as a family that we had help to overcome our struggles to get to where we are!
Cheers!

#194 maxx on 02.22.21 at 1:51 pm

@ #167

“Maybe we should license people to have children, while we’re at it? Many of them seem poorly trained. – Garth”

It’s neither the dogs nor the children. Draw your own conclusions.