It’s back

So, recall all those boring, pedantic, dorky and hectoring blog posts about the cost of money going up as inflation returns?

Sure ya do. They’re the ones nobody believed and dissed me for. Just like all the times I’ve gently reminded you to buy fresh trousers because later in 2021 you’ll be going back to work. Alas, nobody believes that either, or wants to.

But, too bad. Things you need to know for the rest of the year include:

(a) Mortgage rates may go down a little in a spring promo blitz, but by summer they’ll be on the path northward. Maybe sooner. Lock in.
(b) The suburban/hick real estate phenom has six months to live. Don’t be tricked.
(c) Thinking about selling your house? Do it now.
(d) Lots of employers are fed up. The WFH thing will end.
(e) Cities will revive, and DT condos along with them.
(f) Vaccines = recovery. As dosing the herd ramps up dramatically over the next six months, everything will change. More growth. Fewer depressing public health officials on TV. Stores, restaurants, clubs open. Get invested. Buy any dip. Eschew cash because stuff’s about to pop.

You can believe me, or doubt me. But there’s no mistaking what the bond market is convinced of…

Bond yields swell first, mortgages later

That’ the five-year GoC bond return, and while it’s still under six-tenths of one percent, you can see what’s happening. This breakout from levels we’ve been at since last Spring has one message – the economy is about to reopen. The same is happening in the US, where 10-year Treasuries have pushed through a resistance level for a one-year high in terms of yields. This has been reinforced by the latest American retail numbers (sales up 5.3% when expectations were for a 1% rise). Plus, look at energy – oil’s at sixty bucks and all that climate-change snow in Texas has lit a fire under the whole sector.

JP Morgan says Biden’s rapid-vax plan will get the US economy fully open in 40 to 70 days. Wow. The Roaring Twenties talk has rekindled. In Canada we’re lagging on our rate of jabbing, but the expectations are similar. The bond pop, says mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister, is “a signal that better economic times lie ahead. A sign that inflation should no longer be just an afterthought. A sign that the lowest fixed rates in Canadian history are in danger of vanishing.”

And this revelation:

Bond yields are climbing because traders see the economy in a much better place in 2022, and because North American governments have deteriorating balance sheets and need to flood the market with their debt. Those who brush aside the inflationary aspect of that last point should note that after the next round of U.S. stimulus, 40% of all dollars in circulation will have been printed in just the last 12 months. Money supply still matters.

You bet it does. The Trudeau Libs are busy spending $350 billion we don’t have, pushing the national debt (mostly bonds) to $1 trillion. Meanwhile governments around the world have ponied up an historic $20 trillion to fight this slimy little pathogen and its variant spawn. This unprecedented amount of stimulus has helped inflate asset values (look at houses in Brampton, Bitcoin or shares in Tesla) and water down the value of currencies. This is why a Border Collie pup costs $2,500, plywood is a hundred bucks and there are 17 bids for every crap house that comes available.

Yes, all this has a word: inflation.

Mortgage rates, therefore, will not stay at current levels. Not a chance. Five-year money is currently in the 1.5% range and you can lock in for a whole decade at 2%. That is an insane opportunity, since Mr. Bond Market is forecasting an increase of at least 1% by the time a fiver coms up for renewal, and it could well be greater. If there’s a gush of financing activity in the next few months (people waking up to the fact they should grab a lower rate now as a once-in-a-gen chance) then demand will push rates higher, faster.

Elevated rates will also (a) push bond prices lower and (b) inflate preferred share values. So in the fixed-income portion of your 60/40 portfolio ensure you have a healthy whack of prefs (about half), as well as bonds that are higher-yielders than the federal variety (corporate and provincial). If you are among the privileged class with a DB pension and the ability to commute, be aware the lump sum value will fall as inflation pushes rates higher. Those who were in a position to take a commuted value in 2020 or (so far) in 2021 truly lucked out.

And what of houses?

When mortgage rates tick high, buyers tend to panic and rush into deals. Yeah – just what we need when we already have the tightest market in history with only 1.9 months of inventory nationally and an unprecedented 91% sales-to-new listings ratio. The second wave of the virus has helped convince owners not to become sellers, opening their homes to (yuck) strangers. But absurd, historic prices may change that. And in the long run, higher financing costs always have a chilling effect on prices and sales.

Well, that concludes another post nobody wanted to read. Don’t forget the new pants, though.

About the picture: “In the spirit of the blog,” writes BillyBob, “I thought I’d offer a pic of the family dog, Bren. He’s a 3-year-old Czechoslovakian Wolfdog,  a German shepherd/Carpathian grey wolf cross. Friendly, loyal, scarily intelligent, eyes that probe the soul. Visiting the homestead is a Calvin & Hobbes routine: bracing at the gate for 47kg of furry guided missile to joyfully launch a direct hit! Thank you for what you do. “

167 comments ↓

#1 Mattl on 02.17.21 at 2:32 pm

Money will get more expensive, and should get more expensive. But I’m not sure the central banks will have the courage with some many of their citizens buried in debt. Remember, pre pandemic, with a the economies roaring, they were not courageous enough to normalize rates. The minute home prices plop, or equity markets correct, I full expect them to go to the only trick they have in their bag, low rates. Low rates and easing are literally the only things they know how to do.

#2 OMG on 02.17.21 at 2:37 pm

The 5 yr yield is up almost 100%!!

Or up 3 tenths of 1 percent.

Depending upon how you want to look at it.

#3 Rook on 02.17.21 at 2:39 pm

Hi Garth,

Genuinely curious. What tools, if any, does the BoC have at its disposal to keep a lid on the 5-yr (or 10 yr, or 3 yr for that matter) bond rate? Is it possible for the Bank to goose prices to keep the rate low? Or is the bank now at the mercy of wherever the market decides to price them?

#4 Lieutenant Commander Data on 02.17.21 at 2:41 pm

#83 Diharv on 02.13.21 at 9:49 pm
———————————————————-
#2 Lieutenant Commander Data on 02.13.21 at 9:51 am
Anyone see the news about Covid risk of death being 3.5 times of the flu?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7633055/covid-19-death-influenza/
———————————————————-
Well Duh!!! Everyone has know the mortality of this thing is higher than the flu for almost a year now. Where have you been?

010001001011101101101

Diharv,

I believe you may have missed the intended point, fellow life form.

Canada is reporting 829,000 cases and 21,354 deaths today, for an effective reported Covid-19 death rate of apparently 2.58% (deaths/cases) – upon which all decisions, major spending and shutdowns appear to be based.

Flu death rate is reported to be about 0.1%, edging up to 0.2% – no one knows 100% really because all flu related data is estimated. No one ever counted as vigorously as has been the case with Covid-19 but it is generally accepted to be between 0.1% and 0.2%.

As such the death rate based on the numbers reported on the daily news would appear to be 25X that of the Flu.

However, here is new local Canadian data indicating that Covid-19 death rate is just 3.5X that of the Flu. This would clearly indicate that there are many uncounted Covid-19 cases, that if counted would bring the news reported death rate % down.

NY State and NY City general population immunity tests done back in April of 2020 would suggest that or every case confirmed with a tests, there were apparently 7 cases not confirmed or reported as counted cases. This would be VERY consistent with this latest Canadian 3.5x Flu death rate data, as 2.58% Covid-19 death rate based on reported numbers divided by 7 is 0.368, which would be nearly exactly 3.5x the 0.1% Flu death rate that is recognized and agreed upon.

When data points line up like this, well, it is quite exciting for me, as my name would suggest.

This is amazingly good news. I am not sure we are digesting this with the excitement it deserves. This news should put humans in incredibly good spirits.

#5 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 2:43 pm

Hey BillyBob, what is it with pilots and Calvin & Hobbes?

#6 SnowOwl on 02.17.21 at 2:44 pm

Alright, PFF it is then.

#7 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 2:44 pm

Fresh trousers. Are they in season?

#8 the jaguar on 02.17.21 at 2:51 pm

Bren is well cared for as shown by his fur coat. His eyes say it all. I can hear the strains of Sting’s “Every Breath You Take” as I look into them…

#9 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 2:53 pm

Not a dog guy myself, but that is one good looking animal right there!

#10 S.Bby on 02.17.21 at 2:59 pm

The CBs will implement yield curve control to keep rates low. I love watching the uneducated lemmings rush into whatever the latest panic induced buying frenzy is.

Actually everyone expects QE to be phased out. Which it will be. – Garth

#11 Captain Uppa on 02.17.21 at 3:08 pm

No one can afford higher rates. I mean NO ONE.

Global debt to GDP is 365%. The system is insolvent.

#12 Prince Polo on 02.17.21 at 3:13 pm

https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/02/17/the-big-long/

When things are going sweetly and peacefully, please pause a moment, and then say out loud, “If this isn’t nice, what is?”

#13 Recipe for disaster on 02.17.21 at 3:13 pm

Recipe for disaster.
Take two millennials.
Add equal parts greed, inexperience and optimism.
Half-bake your idea with $30M for a couple of years.
Finish with a a two-vowel chic name.
Garnish with youthful exuberance and hype.

Goes great with a side of naive investors.

https://biv.com/article/2021/02/vancouvers-fraction-technologies-raises-289m-bid-shake-home-loans

#14 Catalyst on 02.17.21 at 3:15 pm

I never thought I’d see the day when all the egg heads on tv have their trousers in a knot over a 20bps move. Hilarious!

The reopen trade will be the dip. Everyone I know is looking to get out before everyone else as it’s clearly a massive bubble and your telling people to buy every dip?? Cash is the most oversold asset right now. If you’re going to be long this market, make sure you’ve got some risk management tools going.

My 2c.

#15 bdwy on 02.17.21 at 3:16 pm

blackrock and btc?

what’s up with that?

i belive it’s a purely speculative thing but maybe i’m wrong….

#16 SoggyShorts on 02.17.21 at 3:16 pm

JP Morgan says Biden’s rapid-vax plan will get the US economy fully open in 40 to 70 days. -Garth
********************
Same for Canada, right? Right?!
*sad locked down snowbird noises*

#17 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 3:24 pm

Ryan L was one of the few guys telling folks oil was on the way up to $60.00, just saying. Thanks.

#18 Stone on 02.17.21 at 3:25 pm

#11 Captain Uppa on 02.17.21 at 3:08 pm
No one can afford higher rates. I mean NO ONE.

Global debt to GDP is 365%. The system is insolvent.

———

Really? I have no debt. My popcorn is ready.

Uppa! Uppa! Uppa, baby!

#19 Linda on 02.17.21 at 3:27 pm

I’d wondered whether there were wilder genes in today’s dog! I was thinking maybe a dash of coyote but yeah, can believe a touch of wolf. Beautiful coloring.

I was trying to find out whether any inflation stats for 2021 had been published as yet. Predictions were pretty much all I found. Will be interesting to see what the official number for January 2021 will be. Yes, energy has popped higher due to the winter woes of Texas & the USA in general. Canada didn’t exactly escape the cold snap either, so I’m expecting a robust energy bill to arrive next month. However, given the chances the USA economy will be opening up by spring I’d say price increases across the board are in our future.

Canada should also see a nice economic rebound once we get enough vaccine to jab everyone that moves. However the supply chain issues may mean that won’t happen until autumn or even winter 2021. Hopefully variants won’t pop into existence that render any remedy in the pipeline obsolete.

#20 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 02.17.21 at 3:31 pm

Why panic, if rates go higher than the simple solution is to increase amortization which governments will do. I said it before : 100 years mortgages will come with a provision for a 35 years rebuild .
Time to go window shopping in Shaughnessy,find a nice , beat down mansion that can be renovated for less than a mil .

#21 Sean on 02.17.21 at 3:32 pm

ZPR or RPF for preferreds?

#22 Adam Smith on 02.17.21 at 3:34 pm

So if I’m in Victoria, should I be jumping in now while the rates are low but everyone in the market has an itchy trigger finger and overbids like nuts on the 50 properties for sale (which I will have to do) or wait for the slow interest rate crawl upwards to begin making people sane again?

This information is pushing me in painfully contradictory directions.

#23 CL on 02.17.21 at 3:35 pm

“(b) inflate preferred share values.”

Yep. I’ve had CPD for about 6 years now and buying every year since the first. I have a whack of them and bought a lot more last year when I saw the price started to head upward. I had to do a double take yesterday at the Gov’t 5yr….wow…10bps went very quickly.

#24 The West on 02.17.21 at 3:36 pm

“Well, that concludes another post nobody wanted to read.”

I wanted to read it.

#25 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

#151 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:08 am
#141 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 9:17 am
#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm

Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.

————

That’s not maple syrup, it’s maple flavoured corn syrup.

————

I’ve always preferred Aunt Jemima’s to real maple syrup. It has more body and doesn’t vanish as a moist patch on the pancake. I relish the pancakes while simultaneously drinking in kitschy original art. A feast for both the belly and the eyes!
————-
As long as you don’t feed it to your kids. (if you have any).
Remember don’t eat what you can’t pronounce.
As an European at heart, I’m always amazed at the garbage that North American eat, and how much.
I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.
IHTC8 1/2. Do you mind disclosing your weight?

#26 theoryAndPractice on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

I’m not a fan of bitcoin (not because I do not know what it is, and how it works, the advantages but the way it is used so far like Canadian Real Estate! ) but this is what is going on reported on MSM today :

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/blackrock-has-started-to-dabble-in-bitcoin-says-rick-rieder.html

IMHO, This is like Game Stonk, whatever can be skimmed from whoever and whatever possible way it is available to do so, and it is very much matching the “TITLE” of this blog !

#27 jess on 02.17.21 at 3:42 pm

derelict destroyed – 3,000 Sticks of Dynamite
Front-row seats to view Wednesday morning’s spectacle were sold on the cheap. Onlookers in cars hoping to witness the symbolic finale of the former president’s casino empire in the seaside resort city were charged $10 and herded into a lot most recently used as a pandemic-era food distribution site.

who bid $575 to win a front-row seat at a V.I.P. breakfast in an oceanfront pavilion with a direct view of the implosion.

A charity auction for the right to press the button to blow up the tower raised a high bid of $175,000, t
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/02/17/in-photos-trumps-plaza-casino-in-atlantic-city-is-demolished/?sh=1406c4ca4cef

trump plaza casino blown up and who won the right to push the button for charity?

Trump Plaza has sat empty for six years, large pieces of the facade broke loose from one of the hotel towers and came crashing to the ground. In one storm, additional debris fell from the structure on to the Boardwalk.

Icahn owns the former Trump Plaza building, and has agreed to the demolition.

#28 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:44 pm

We are renogiating our 3 yr mtg. to a 5 yr. 1.78%.
Even with penalty, it’s a great bargain.
Plus sign in bonus 2,500.
I’ll drink to that.

#29 Dolce Vita on 02.17.21 at 3:51 pm

That dog used in Italia by the Civil Protection Agency in Search and Rescue (scroll down to view “Ginger”):

http://www.protezionecivilefabriano.it/unita-cinofila.html

Popular in my Region. Apparently 1 breeder in Pordenone and few others not far away. A lot other breeders across Italia.

Apparently loved here in Italia. Have their own database, web site (click on “Allevamenti” up top to see that they are raised all over Italia, from North to South):

https://clc-italia.it/

Apparently not so good at doggie sport “Flyball” according to our Protezione Civile but good at it seems everything else esp. “agility dog” (bottom table green shaded):

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cane_da_lupo_cecoslovacco

————————–

Saw one in Pordenone a couple of weeks ago and thought “wolf” but it looked very nice to me and serene, well behaved. Maybe it was the owner. Sweet looking “dog”.

Thanks for the dog picture Garth and lucky you BillyBob.

PS:

2 enthusiastic thumbs up for your predictions.

#30 alexinvestor on 02.17.21 at 3:52 pm

Sure, interest rates are going up. But with inflation coming (something we haven’t seen much of in 20 years), people will want to buy real estate to keep their purchasing power. Also, increased immigration to Canada (because we need workers to pay our debts) is another factor. Maybe overall it’s a wash.

I wouldn’t touch higher yielding bonds though. Junk bonds are yielding 4-5%. Maybe our government is going to make sure all these companies are never going bankrupt ?

#31 JSS on 02.17.21 at 4:15 pm

House prices continually creeping higher across Canada, except in Edmonton.

Still cheaper here than a dog house in TO/Van.

What was the temp last week? – Garth

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 4:19 pm

BillyBob
This is indeed a beautiful dog.
As I gather from your posts, you are holed up in an apartment in Praha.
And I hear that the Czech Republic is quite severly hit by the Virus.
Are you able to get the dog out for walks?
When I lived in Wien, I had a Dackel.
That’s all the landlady would allow.
Good luck.

#33 Rob on 02.17.21 at 4:23 pm

I’m confused as to why prefs go up in value when rates are rising(I was also confused why their prices went down as rates lowered). I would have thought that prefs would move the same as bonds.

#34 Dolce Vita on 02.17.21 at 4:25 pm

I like what I read today Garth but wait to break out the noise makers and champagne for a little bit longer. And it would not be the first time The Markets got it wrong…though I am with your sentiment.

I still worry about Covid variants (e.g., sickness, deaths wreaked upon the UK).

I’m not the only one worrying.

4 hrs ago the EU to form “HERA Incubator” to specifically combine EU research to combat the variants.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1362073749374328833

Today, the news that STRUCK ME THE MOST was from Sweden which has been pretty laissez-faire with Covid until today (a laid back bunch, so strong words from their Gov this morning got my attention):

“The government is now threatening to shut down large sections of society. Faced with the risk of a third wave…”

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/vAwyb5/regeringen-hotar-stanga-ned

€200 fines if they do it. They will decide within the week.

Kind of like Biblical Job having a connipshit.

——————-

A lot of good things happening with vax’s to combat the variants, too much for this venue.

Hopeful but a bit worried in the interim here in the EU.

#35 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 4:33 pm

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

IHTC8 1/2. Do you mind disclosing your weight?

______

While operating 310 dozer – 6,725 lbs
While operating TD9 dozer – 20,225 lbs

I’m 6′-3″ so it’s not as bad as it sounds…

#36 Rogue Trader on 02.17.21 at 4:40 pm

Great article Garth,
The tape tells a fine story how invisible hand of Mr. Marklet works, and market is a great teacher. It will always take your money first, but give the lesson later. In captain we trust… until we don’t.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVMPJo_WEgI

#37 Inequity on 02.17.21 at 4:44 pm

#30 JSS
What was the temp last week? – Garth

– Cold enough to freeze your will to live

#38 Jay on 02.17.21 at 4:48 pm

Still curious your take on how this yield and resulting inflation will affect gold. Gold seemed to have took a tumble today, with word of the rising yield. Is gold still destined to increase in line with inflation?

Doorstop. – Garth

#39 John on 02.17.21 at 4:50 pm

Can we invest into Turner Investments using a ticker symbol?

#40 Dolce Vita on 02.17.21 at 4:53 pm

#31 Ponzius Pilatus

If BillyBob is in Praha, double lucky.

That is where Novavax is going to be manufactured this summer. 52M doses from there destined for Canada.

Reads from their tabloid Blesk.cz they are worried about Covid:

https://www.blesk.cz/

but have not lost their sense of humour, amazement? also on their front page:

Trápení Češky (65), která se v Pákistánu provdala za zajíčka (23): Proplakaný Valentýn!

#41 Brian Ripley on 02.17.21 at 4:57 pm

My chart of prices in $CAD and $USD for Single Family Detached Houses in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary with FX and Crude Oil Notations is up with the January data:
http://www.chpc.biz/canadian-housing-in-usd.html

Houses are cheaper by 21% priced in USD.

And today the USD is on the move…up.
That will add to the inflation of imports in the short term.

#42 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 5:01 pm

“that climate-change snow”

I heard that reference on the MSM and snorted with derision. The MSM and their “narrative”, they have lost all credibility.

Excellent fact checking article on the Jan 6 Capital Hill riot.

I bet you also thought the deceased Law Enforcement officer was hit with a Fire Extinguisher….
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-claims

——–
Re Equities:

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” – Chuck Prince’s Investing in a Bubble

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 5:07 pm

@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

++++

Odd, I sometimes have the same reaction to one of your lectures…..

#44 NSNG on 02.17.21 at 5:12 pm

A legend has passed. Clinton’s greatest foil.

Goodbye, Rush.

Thanks for the memories.

#45 Billy Buoy on 02.17.21 at 5:13 pm

Let’s see what happens when US 10 year rates ever are allowed to hit 1.75%.

A long way to go and a lot of time for yield control by the powers to be.

#46 Captain Uppa on 02.17.21 at 5:22 pm

#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:44 pm
We are renogiating our 3 yr mtg. to a 5 yr. 1.78%.
Even with penalty, it’s a great bargain.
Plus sign in bonus 2,500.
I’ll drink to that.
————————————-

I am getting 5yr at 1.78% as well. A refinance.

10 year looks tempting at 2.14% if Garth is right.

#47 morrey on 02.17.21 at 5:25 pm

Just yesterday at our investment meeting 2 FA said Interest Rates will remain low for 3 more years. Too many countries with big deficits. In the meantime:
“Toronto area real estate is ‘back to full-on madness’”
Olive Street in Oshawa where a 1,100-square-foot house was listed with an asking price of $650,000 and sold for $802,000 after five bullies submitted bids ahead of the date scheduled for reviewing offers.

…the house last changed hands in 2018 for $200,000.

this smacks of insanity. we need an intervention

#48 Rogerhomeinspector on 02.17.21 at 5:26 pm

So, curious.

We speak about things like interest rates like we’re in our own little bubble. But we’re obviously not. What’s going to happen when the Americans start to party like it’s 1999 and inflation become a concern there? Based on IMF numbers from 2018, it looks like household debt is around 30 percent lower there than in Canada, so raising rates wouldn’t have as profound an impact on households there as here and this wouldn’t be as central a concern for their government.

But if their rates go up, up, up, would ours not have to follow in step? If not, I assume our dollar would get whacked and imports would increase in cost significantly. Exports would be helped but let’s be serious- we’re more interested in trading homes for ever higher prices than we are in manufacturing or mining useful stuff for the world. Our trade deficits are staggering. Work and innovation is for suckers.

So how much of this is actually within the control of the government? I hear lots of comments on this blog but throughout the comment sections on Youtube etc… stating that the government will never raise rates as it would wipe out significant sums of wealth as home values would decrease. But is this actually a choice we can make or is it a matter that could simply be forced based on the actions of not only the US, but other nations?

#49 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 5:28 pm

Cool dog, BillyBob!

It looks very intelligent. I bet it loves Big Macs.

#50 Rainman on 02.17.21 at 5:28 pm

Inflation is good for the debt you have, so why not borrow big and get that big house you want?

#51 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 5:29 pm

#34 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 4:33 pm
#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

IHTC8 1/2. Do you mind disclosing your weight?

______

While operating 310 dozer – 6,725 lbs
While operating TD9 dozer – 20,225 lbs

I’m 6′-3″ so it’s not as bad as it sounds…

///////////

225 lbs for the win.

#52 Dave on 02.17.21 at 5:32 pm

Why the WFH hate? Our old guard company had an innovation renaissance the last year and it’s gaining huge momentum… could never have happened in 10×10 cells. Is return to office just some old guard power move?

#53 TurnerNation on 02.17.21 at 5:35 pm

Sure…by Fall. Look they are already selling on a later lockdown. Plain language – they are trying to “prevent” what’s already planned. Economic shutdowns. This is the globalists’ take over.
Two more weeks! See if they really told us what is coming…we’d revolt.

https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/keeping-toronto-closed-now-may-prevent-another-lockdown-right-before-patios-open-tory-says-1.5312980

Extending strict public health measures in Toronto now could help to prevent another lockdown right before patio season begins in Toronto, Mayor John Tory said Wednesday.

Speaking at a news conference at city hall on Wednesday afternoon, Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa said she is asking the province to keep strict lockdown measures in place in the city for at least another two weeks before considering easing any of the current restrictions.

#54 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 5:37 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 5:07 pm
@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

++++

Odd, I sometimes have the same reaction to one of your lectures…..
— —-

Now, things would be different for the Ponz if his belly was treated to regular doses of Aunt Jemima “Maple Syrup” instead of that elitist genuine organic stuff he always buys. He’d have an iron-clad gizzard like mine, able to digest old license plates and steel belted radials.

Like a great white, instead of Mr Creosote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aczPDGC3f8U

#55 Pete on 02.17.21 at 5:44 pm

So what’s going to get whacked 1st? Late to the RE market fools that buy at peak, or taxpayers taxed to death bailing T2 out of grotesque deficits. Or will the banks cease clients’ money in a emergency declaration from our finance minister to spread the wealth around. LOL

#56 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

Nothing like a bit of inconvenience to remind people of the advantages of reliable power. Interesting how there are no news reports from people standing in lines with empty propane tanks in TX how they support getting rid of hydrocarbon based energy sources.

I’m making good money selling electrical equipment to large battery projects, including two in TX right now, so the green power thing is a money maker for me, but I also have an intricate understanding of how the grid works and is regulated, and to me it doesn’t look like they’ll be bragging for a while now about shutting down more of the functioning parts of the energy mix as they move to more unreliable sources.

The issue in TX is that the regulator (ERCOT), which also controls the wholesale market, and whose directors are appointed by a virtue signaling R Governor, keeps very low margins of reserve power in order to make the grid look “greener” than it really is. Now it’s just black(out)!

The fix is easy, just open the bidding for more reserve power, which will keep more plants open to be available even when they aren’t used. Also, like the US Northeast, mandate that natural gas plants store 2 weeks worth of liquid oil back-up on site, for when the gas supply is disrupted. They could also allow for faster reverse flow from the LNG plants on the coast.

No magic, just need to stop pretending where reliable and cheap energy comes from, and that its hard to have a first world economy without it.

Oil & Gas aren’t going anywhere for a long time…

Going to be good times for large diesel generators salesmen for a while I suspect as well.

#57 Bert on 02.17.21 at 5:49 pm

Are they really all going to be right at the same time. It would be a first if they are…

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/record-number-of-fund-managers-overweight-on-emerging-markets-says-bofa-survey

#58 Bert on 02.17.21 at 5:52 pm

And another example. Are they all going to be right? How wonderful it would be if they were. I would take the other side if I were you…

https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-survey-bofa-int-idUSKBN29O0UE

#59 Bert on 02.17.21 at 6:04 pm

How can it be a late stage bull market when the S&P500 corrected 35% less than 1 year ago? What a bunch of bozos. I love these reports. They tell you exactly how not to position and what won’t happen.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/bofas-fund-manager-survey-cites-only-one-reason-to-be-bearish

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 6:14 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 5:07 pm
@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

++++

Odd, I sometimes have the same reaction to one of your lectures…..
—————
You’re lucky.
Usually I charge for my lectures.

#61 Bert on 02.17.21 at 6:14 pm

Some sensible commentary on inflation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/this-is-not-inflation-economist-says-expectations-are-unanchored-from-reality.html

#62 JFC on 02.17.21 at 6:20 pm

Not sure if it has been discussed on this blog, but I found this article quite interesting. Is there a way for Canada to avoid financial repression?

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2021/02/01/canadas-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-alarming-what-happened-the-last-time-we-were-in-this-situation.html

#63 Hey there on 02.17.21 at 6:24 pm

Employers will need to save money too.

#64 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 6:29 pm

#50 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 5:29 pm
#34 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 4:33 pm
#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

IHTC8 1/2. Do you mind disclosing your weight?

______

While operating 310 dozer – 6,725 lbs
While operating TD9 dozer – 20,225 lbs

I’m 6′-3″ so it’s not as bad as it sounds…

///////////

225 lbs for the win.

— —

Winner winner, chicken dinner! (With “syrup” on top)

#65 CEW9 on 02.17.21 at 6:31 pm

Garth – just completed an early renewal on our home – locked at 1.66 for 5 years, no questions asked. Thanks for the advice; we are grateful for the stability that comes with it.

#66 45north on 02.17.21 at 6:32 pm

AM in MN

No magic, just need to stop pretending where reliable and cheap energy comes from, and that its hard to have a first world economy without it. Oil & Gas aren’t going anywhere for a long time

nope

#67 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.17.21 at 6:36 pm

Much will change, indeed.

But Toronthole and the Make Believes will always be the worst!!!!

WooHOOoooooo!!

What an incredibly incompetent display the other day.

Leading by 5-1, they completely BLEW IT, and were DESTROYED by Ottawa, 6-5.

Even in the FAKE 2021 NHL season, this team just sucks, as bad as the city it pretends to care about.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/dadonov-caps-comeback-overtime-senators-beat-maple-leafs/

“It’s back”?

Yessir! Another year of loserdom in the GTA!!!!

#68 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 6:41 pm

#53 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 5:37 pm
#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 5:07 pm
@#24 Puking Ponzie

“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

———-

Odd, I sometimes have the same reaction to one of your lectures…..

———-

Now, things would be different for the Ponz if his belly was treated to regular doses of Aunt Jemima “Maple Syrup” instead of that elitist genuine organic stuff he always buys. He’d have an iron-clad gizzard like mine, able to digest old license plates and steel belted radials.

———-

I quiver in ecstasy at the thought of Big Macs. Not many things better than that first bite crunching through the pickles and lettuce, secret sauce, delicious double burgers, delightful char flavour… mmmmm!

That’ll be dinner tonight. Thanks Ponz! I’ll buy a few for you if I can find coupons.

#69 Frank on 02.17.21 at 6:45 pm

Garth, if there is inflation won’t house prices continue to rise?

#70 Ustabe on 02.17.21 at 6:48 pm

The issue in TX is that the regulator (ERCOT), which also controls the wholesale market, and whose directors are appointed by a virtue signaling R Governor, keeps very low margins of reserve power in order to make the grid look “greener” than it really is. Now it’s just black(out)!

The issue in Texas is that they are not a part of the national grid. They are their own little non federally regulated grid, all by themselves. That is why you don’t hear about similar issues with North Dakota or Minnesota, etc. They share, move things around, etc. Texas doesn’t.

Hardship aside I am somewhat amused by the vision of a tuff Texas R, proudly owning 37 machine guns who needs a 9mm strapped to go to the grocery store and who is now home bound by some snowflakes.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 6:50 pm

@#59 Phd Ponzie
“You’re lucky.
Usually I charge for my lectures.”

+++++

People pay to hear about the Von Trapp’s and rubble cleaners?

#72 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 6:56 pm

#29 alexinvestor on 02.17.21 at 3:52 pm

“Also, increased immigration to Canada (because we need workers to pay our debts) is another factor.”

Isn’t that putting the cart before the horse? Unemployment is over 8% now and probably won’t get back down to 4% for years, so stuffing new people into the country now will just drive down wages and keep unemployment high.

I realize that government finances and pensions and such are predicated on perpetual population growth, but me thinks the need for population growth is behind us. We need to start thinking in terms of population decline, which is what the market is already trying to do through birth rates but the government is fighting tooth and nail. Practically everything is automated now to some extent or another and will continue to become more so.

It seems that all industries follow a model similar to farming over varying timelines. In 1900 much of the population lived rurally and had some connection to farming. Fast forward to today and modern farming technology allows just a few people to manage a thousand acres. Then robots came for the factory workers. Then computers came for the accountants. The fact is that economic growth is becoming largely detached from population growth and that is a long established trend. We don’t need any more people.

#73 Steven Rowlandson on 02.17.21 at 7:00 pm

Garth the feds are beyond a trillion in debt. Far be it from me to accuse them of being a responsible government.
Except for the efforts of Paul Martin I have never seen a responsible federal government in my life time and I’ll be 61 this summer.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 7:02 pm

Flop!

Yer gonna have to hop to and explain this one……

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/wallaby-hops-hospital-hamilton-victoria-011215299.html

#75 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.17.21 at 7:02 pm

Faron, Soggy Shorts, Stone, Sail Away, and anyone else that chipped in regarding my foray into the world of ETFs, thank you for your honesty and input. I will be considering all the advice you have given me! Hell,
I may just end up back with the robo-advisor at the end of the day. Like someone mentioned, with two public sector DB pensions, anything else is gravy. And for that I know we are fortunate.

#76 Zed on 02.17.21 at 7:03 pm

Garth,

Do you think that mortgaging my paid off house for a 10-year fixed mortgage and investing that money in pref shares is a right long-term idea?

I don’t need more money or risk but maybe just to take advantage of an opportunity.

#77 SoggyShorts on 02.17.21 at 7:03 pm

#22 CL on 02.17.21 at 3:35 pm
“(b) inflate preferred share values.”

Yep. I’ve had CPD for about 6 years now and buying every year since the first. I have a whack of them and bought a lot more last year when I saw the price started to head upward. I had to do a double take yesterday at the Gov’t 5yr….wow…10bps went very quickly.

********************************
May I ask what your average purchase price is?
Every few months for years preferreds “go on sale” but the price never seems to go up ( with the obvious exception of post march 2020 when everything went up)
I get that the 4-5% yield is great, but if the total return is less than that… eh.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 7:07 pm

IHTC8 1/3
Good sense of humor.
BTW, Mountain Men has new episodes.
Good old Tom Oar is not on it anymore.
Will miss him.
Learned how to “fiddle for worms”.
All this ancient knowledge is dying out.

#79 The Fediots on 02.17.21 at 7:08 pm

Today one of the Fed heads said not to worry about “temporary inflation” ….wait ,2 days ago they said there wasn’t any lol. So does “temporary inflation” mean higher prices are temporary ?

btw, Bitcoin is at 52000 now …giddyup

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 7:19 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 6:50 pm
@#59 Phd Ponzie
“You’re lucky.
Usually I charge for my lectures.”

+++++

People pay to hear about the Von Trapp’s and rubble cleaners?
————–
You better believe it!
Salzburg is full of gullible North American tourists, who gobble up every morsel.
Funny part is, that most Austrians don’t even know about the movie.
How can you make an entire movie in Austria, without a single Austrian actor in it.
Chris Plummer (RIP) hated his role.

#81 Richard Stavos on 02.17.21 at 7:27 pm

Garth, we got through our good long time friend, mortgage broker 1.79% for 10 years fixed rate not variable last year mid 2020. All we had to pay is a $8,400 in penalties but we are saving $12,000 a year in interest from my old fixed mortgage rate 3.5 years was left on it.

Our mortgage will be paid off in 10 years for sure if not 95% will be paid off no problem. A big win win for our family. We are going to stuff those RRSP’s, TFSA’s, RESP’s to the max for sure.

#82 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 7:27 pm

#69 Ustabe on 02.17.21 at 6:48 pm

The issue in Texas is that they are not a part of the national grid. They are their own little non federally regulated grid, all by themselves. That is why you don’t hear about similar issues with North Dakota or Minnesota, etc. They share, move things around, etc. Texas doesn’t.

—————————————

Nonsense. The TX grid is 70,000MW, bigger than most countries. It wouldn’t matter if it was 1,000MW, reserves are reserves…and the reliability of such is the only issue.

The fact that CA regularly ships enough power north to feed Seattle and Vancouver between 11AM and 2PM, and then buys it back for 8 x the price between 4PM and 8PM, is not different technically than the internal flows within the TX grid.

ERCOT could have had reserve plants up and hot when the cold came, but that blows their “green” credentials, where they try and pretend that they can run on mostly solar and wind.

ERCOT does do some very good engineering work with regard to the integration of solar and wind. Better than the fed DoE actually, and certainly better than the big behemoth Canadian govt. utilities. The problem is when the green religion takes over common sense.

Much like the BP drilling disaster. As the culture promotes virtue signaling, it squeezes out many of the hard edge engineers. Many good engineers are not warm and personable, and they have a low tolerance for sitting through meetings where everyone is talking BS that is unsubstantiated by hard numbers. Many of the people who know how to properly case a well were long ago driven out by BP’s virtue signaling culture…and look what happened.

After this disaster, there will be a similar rotation back to reality….some of which may find its way back to DC and Ottawa?

#83 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 7:29 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 6:50 pm
@#59 Phd Ponzie
“You’re lucky.
Usually I charge for my lectures.”

———–

People pay to hear about the Von Trapp’s and rubble cleaners?

———–

Don’t forget vegetable jokes:

Why did Austria’s favourite vegetable almost miss Noah’s ark?

It took an awfully long time to turnip.

#84 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:31 pm

#41 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 5:01 pm
“that climate-change snow”

I heard that reference on the MSM and snorted with derision. The MSM and their “narrative”, they have lost all credibility.

Excellent fact checking article on the Jan 6 Capital Hill riot.

I bet you also thought the deceased Law Enforcement officer was hit with a Fire Extinguisher….
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-claims

———————————–

Ya, it is pretty amazing how far the narrative world has gotten from the facts on the ground. It’s almost as if words can now create reality. Reminds me of Saddam’s “weapons of mas destruction”. It’s almost 20 years later and still nobody has apologized for that scam.

Somehow, a “protest” has become a “riot” which has become an “armed insurrection”. Pretty lame “armed insurrection” if you ask me. Couldn’t they have at least brought pitchforks? Or homemade riot gear like ANTIFA uses?

What happened on Jan. 6th was that a protest got out of hand, and a small percentage of the people stormed into a building they should not have and took selfies. They did not set the building on fire like has happened to many police stations.

We humans are probably the only creature ever to have walked the earth that lives in two worlds; one real, and one based on narrative. And it seems like the narrative world is more important to us. We will insult anyone who doesn’t agree with our narrative with terms like “fascist”, “racists”, “misogynists”, “denier” and countless other terms designed to control the narrative without any discussion of the facts on the ground.

Do dogs pray? I am pretty sure they dream, but I am not sure they pray. I think that is a human thing, based on narrative, which I don’t think dogs have.

I am hoping Faron replies to this comment because I am actually starting to look forward to the new insults he has for me. He’s pretty creative.

#85 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:39 pm

@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

How did we get on to this? Nobody forces you to eat McDonald’s.

#86 Scott Tyson on 02.17.21 at 7:41 pm

Frank, not if housing prices, real estate prices are over valued by 30% at least today. Interest rates and local employment, wages are the main culprit when if when they do drop big time.

#87 Doggy coin on 02.17.21 at 7:43 pm

#2 OMG on 02.17.21 at 2:37 pm

The 5 yr yield is up almost 100%!!

Or up 3 tenths of 1 percent.

Depending upon how you want to look at it.

___________________________________

And Dogecoin is up 860% YTD.
But down 8% in last 24 hrs.
Yet still only worth 5 cents.

#88 Habitt on 02.17.21 at 7:48 pm

Yes Bwana. ‘Tis so. Too funny

#89 Douglas Brown on 02.17.21 at 7:52 pm

Valley of Kings and Slaves
@ Lieutenant Commander Data

010001001011101101101 = 靭靭 = toughness

Thankyou – yes – we are all going to need it in the coming years…

#90 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:53 pm

#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

“Going to be good times for large diesel generators salesmen for a while I suspect as well.”

No, no, the narrative police are already well on it blaming the whole thing on gas freeze-offs. The windmills were fine, even though they weren’t running. The solar panels were fine, even though they were covered in snow. The problem was simple, the old gas grid did what it always does in February when it is cold and that is some plants fall off line for a period of hours. That is the narrative that is emerging anyway.

I worked for a very large US power company with plants in every power district. One of the things I learned was that many of these plants only run a few days every couple of years to meet peak demand. Well, lack of maintenance and other issues mean sometimes it takes them 24 hours to get it up and running, but usually not more.

Gas wells freeze off every time it gets cold but usually the load gets transferred to gas storage. Storage facilities will often inject alcohol into the stream to prevent freeze off, but not in Texas. (Why would they think that is necessary?) But storage levels are low this time of year, so everything happened at the worst possible time.

Anyway if you don’t have a generator, buy one, preferably duel fuel. And keep a week of fuel on hand.

#91 Blue Lobster on 02.17.21 at 8:04 pm

If you are among the privileged class with a DB pension and the ability to commute, be aware the lump sum value will fall as inflation pushes rates higher.

*******

Mr. Turner, can you (or someone else) please explain why the lump sum value of a DB pension would fall as inflation rises?

Thank you in advance.

#92 Linda on 02.17.21 at 8:15 pm

About the Texas infrastructure, apparently the reason why it broke is that none of it was fitted with cold weather protection, because normally it just doesn’t get that cold. So why spend big $ for something that rarely happens? Problem is, that pesky climate change that so many like to pretend isn’t happening may result in much more frequent cold weather events in places that are used to much warmer temperatures. I’ve no doubt there will be much hollering about not permitting this situation to reoccur; I also predict that in the end very little to nothing will be done. However, I’m sure that despite the cold a number of lawyers have already been contacted & lawsuits are about to be filed…..

#93 Interstellar Old Yeller on 02.17.21 at 8:17 pm

That dog sounds like a gem. Lucky humans! Hi Bren!

#94 Backbacon Crusader on 02.17.21 at 8:20 pm

Got to disagree with you on employers pushing back on Work from Home. In multiple industries (including my own), Work from Home employees have far better absenteeism rates, higher productivity rates, and cost far less (offloaded costs for internet connections, electricity, water…yes, water costs, in the building where I work, hundreds of employees now work from home, and utilities costs have plummeted. Several hundred bathroom breaks a day no longer occur).

#95 Robert Ash on 02.17.21 at 8:26 pm

Thanks Garth for your candid comments and recommendations, I sure appreciate all suggestions, and viewpoints, in a period, of high uncertainty. These sadly are times, when Fundamentals, are not in vogue, it is Momentum, investing, with good old financial repression, just around the corner… Yikes

#96 Robert Ash on 02.17.21 at 8:36 pm

Garth; An Energy Company is offering one Warrant, for a subscription to one common share, at an exercise price of approximately 25% discount from the Current Merged Entities share value. What do you think?

#97 Comments! on 02.17.21 at 8:45 pm

What a piece of work Jerome Powell is:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/fed-high-asset-prices-might-have-been-affected-by-robinhood-wall-street-bets-201419676.html

“It’s nothing I’ve done that have blown everything up to delusional valuations, it was Robinhood and Wall Street Bets!”

Seriously where do they find these people?

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:48 pm

@#84 Nonplused
“How did we get on to this? Nobody forces you to eat McDonald’s.”

++++

I think it’s an Austrian thing dating back to when Roman Legions conquered the land.
Roman Vomitariums were all the rage.
( eat til you puke, then eat some more).
Apparently Austria is still stuck in the past…..

#99 cristian on 02.17.21 at 8:48 pm

#11 Captain Uppa on 02.17.21 at 3:08 pm
No one can afford higher rates. I mean NO ONE.

Global debt to GDP is 365%. The system is insolvent.

———

Really? I have no debt. My popcorn is ready.

Uppa! Uppa! Uppa, baby!

***********

If you have no debt bad for you .. you can loan at 1.5% and make 6%

#100 kommykim on 02.17.21 at 8:56 pm

RE: #32 Rob on 02.17.21 at 4:23 pm
I’m confused as to why prefs go up in value when rates are rising(I was also confused why their prices went down as rates lowered). I would have thought that prefs would move the same as bonds.

=======================================

Canada’s preferred share market is dominated by the rate reset type. (An ETF like CPD holds 79% reset type)
These reset every 5 years to the 5 year bond rate plus a spread. So if a share is close to reset, and the 5yr rate is higher than it was 5 yrs ago, that means that’ll they will pay more for the next 5 year term and their price goes up.

Perpetual preferred shares behave more like 20-50 year bonds since their payout never changes. (CPD has 20%)
These drop in price as interest rates increase.

#101 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 9:05 pm

#83 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:31 pm

You must be a GenX.

“Weapons of mass destruction”

That was the “Red Pill” for me!
I was still young enough to believe they would never lie so big, Colin Powell oozed credibility.

Now I am a skeptic on everything:
– Climate Change = method of control.
– Identity\Victim Politics = method of control
– Diversity = divide and control

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie,”- Jean-Claude Juncker

Idealism is what precedes experience; cynicism is what follows.
– David T. Wolf

Ans for your friend Faron:

The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire. The former are idealists acting from highest motives for the greatest good of the greatest number. The latter are surly curmudgeons, suspicious and lacking in altruism. But they are more comfortable neighbors than the other sort.” ― Robert A. Heinlein

#102 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:06 pm

#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

Oil & Gas

O+G froze up, so there should have been more O+G to freeze up? Got it. The renewable mix was outperforming expectations, so there should have been less? Makes sense. The reality is that energy suppliers failed to protect power generation of all kinds due to a hypercapitalist ERCOT business model that profits most when the grid is fragile. The Fox News green power narrative is scapegoating utter failure of the org, not wind power.

Looking forward to nonplused weighing in with more lies.

#103 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:09 pm

#89 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:53 pm

#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

even though they weren’t running

There was more wind power on the grid than was forecast or expected for winter. Stop lying.

#104 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:17 pm

#83 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:31 pm

#41 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 5:01 pm

Somehow, a “protest” has become a “riot” which has become an “armed insurrection”. Pretty lame “armed insurrection” if you ask me. Couldn’t they have at least brought pitchforks? Or homemade riot gear like ANTIFA uses

Yes, bludgeoning police officers is just fine as long as you use found items? Makes sense. Gallows and noose aren’t typical armament, but are tools for kilking. So, yeah, not armed. Beating police with your maga flag stick? Just protest.

Boggles how effective idiots like you are at absorbing the narrative you hear from righty talking heads. You have zero credibility after the election BS. Just lies and armchair heresay from you, that’s it. Disgusting.

#105 Stone on 02.17.21 at 9:22 pm

#74 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.17.21 at 7:02 pm
Faron, Soggy Shorts, Stone, Sail Away, and anyone else that chipped in regarding my foray into the world of ETFs, thank you for your honesty and input. I will be considering all the advice you have given me! Hell,
I may just end up back with the robo-advisor at the end of the day. Like someone mentioned, with two public sector DB pensions, anything else is gravy. And for that I know we are fortunate.

———

Did we scare the crap out of you?

BTW, for those that care, 6.26% ytd.

#106 S.Bby on 02.17.21 at 9:28 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz

To Romans, vomitoriums were the entrances/exits in stadiums or theaters, so dubbed by a fifth-century writer because of the way they’d spew crowds out into the streets.

#107 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.21 at 9:41 pm

#90 Blue Lobster on 02.17.21 at 8:04 pm
If you are among the privileged class with a DB pension and the ability to commute, be aware the lump sum value will fall as inflation pushes rates higher.

*******

Mr. Turner, can you (or someone else) please explain why the lump sum value of a DB pension would fall as inflation rises?

Thank you in advance.
………………………..

Generally speaking, a DB pension pays $xx dollars per month till you die. So 10 years after u start collecting u are still collecting the same amount as ten years ago. Inflation eats away at the dollars and the purchasing power and value of the dollars is less over time. If u got a lump sum today those lump sum dollars would buy less ten years from now due to inflation. So the value would fall unless u invested in something with a rate of return higher than inflation.

Nope. The question was not my quote. I said commuted values drop as inflation raises rates. Lump sum payouts augment as interest rates decline. Ask an actuary. – Garth

#108 DON on 02.17.21 at 9:42 pm

#60 Bert on 02.17.21 at 6:14 pm
Some sensible commentary on inflation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/this-is-not-inflation-economist-says-expectations-are-unanchored-from-reality.html

*******************
So energy going up and just getting back to normal.

I don’t remember prices of anything going down in the last 12 months….so what normal are we getting back to?

Are all the jobs coming back right away?

#109 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 9:46 pm

#155 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:40 am
#148 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 10:48 am
#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am

————

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/multi-billion-dollar-hydro-generation-project-proposed-for-meaford-military-base-1.4589053

————

Yep. That’s a fantastic idea. If this was in my jurisdiction, I’d be doing everything possible to secure a piece of the design work.

—————-

Question for Sail Away

Apart from all the technical stuff about how this would work, and if it would be feasible, do you think we actually need a storage facility as we enter into a new age of EVs? Are EVs not going to flatten the curve of energy demand just by being charged during non-peak hours? Seems to me there won’t be any excess hydro in the coming years, maybe just not enough of it.

#110 Andrew on 02.17.21 at 9:47 pm

Trousers? Showing your British heritage there I think! A relevant British term for being afraid of something, for example the effect of rising interest rates on your mortgage payments, is to have brown trousers. Easy to work out why.

#111 Jeff in Vic on 02.17.21 at 9:51 pm

Great Post. Thank you for all you do. I had a fox-terrier growing up. She lasted 15 years.

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 9:51 pm

#84 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:39 pm
@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

How did we get on to this? Nobody forces you to eat McDonald’s.
————
I was new to this glorious country.
And everyone told me:
You gotta have a Big Mac.
So, like a good immigrant, I did.

#113 Wrk.dover on 02.17.21 at 9:56 pm

#74 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.17.21 at 7:02 pm
F with two public sector DB pensions, anything else is gravy. And for that I know we are fortunate.

*************************************

0.9 teachers to 1 retiree on NSTU pension for example!

DOH!

#114 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.21 at 9:59 pm

#94 Robert Ash on 02.17.21 at 8:26 pm
Thanks Garth for your candid comments and recommendations, I sure appreciate all suggestions, and viewpoints, in a period, of high uncertainty. These sadly are times, when Fundamentals, are not in vogue, it is Momentum, investing, with good old financial repression, just around the corner… Yikes
……………………………..

When there are little or no returns available thru saving or holding bonds investors seek returns in the stock or property markets which drives those prices higher. Those are the new “Fundamentals”.

#115 Ed on 02.17.21 at 10:00 pm

#34 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 4:33 pm
#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 3:37 pm

IHTC8 1/2. Do you mind disclosing your weight?

______

While operating 310 dozer – 6,725 lbs
While operating TD9 dozer – 20,225 lbs

I’m 6′-3″ so it’s not as bad as it sounds…

///////////

225 lbs for the win.

////////////
Nope….every Cat skinner brings onboard a stainless steel Aladdin thermos of hot coffee weighing about 2 lb
so 223….they call him Slim….(or Sir to his face)

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:01 pm

@#105 S.Bby

Apologies.
My info was derived from a History Channel Professor…..

https://history.howstuffworks.com/history-vs-myth/did-romans-purge-bellies-in-vomitoriums.htm

I did however , enjoy the description of German/Austrian Frat House “Ponzie Puke Pans” in the previous article…..

#117 TurnerNation on 02.17.21 at 10:28 pm

They’re not even hiding it. The Globalist/Communist take over. 2 more weeks. Locked at home till more of the New System is rolled out.
So brazen are our elites.
NO you may not open your “non-essential” business in ON or QC.
Once again the world fell that cold winter week in March 2020. Nothing has been the same again. By design.
……
Detention on weekends: ‘We are all in prison’, says Judge Larouche.

Judge Rosaire Larouche sent a message to court lawyers against “false prison sentences” Thursday morning at the Chicoutimi courthouse, while he handed out a sentence of 90 days of weekend imprisonment, to increase the chances that it will actually be served behind bars and not in the comfort of a home.

“Since March 2020, we are all in prison at home,” added the magistrate, as if to indicate that under current conditions, an intermittent prison sentence would not be a worse punishment than what all the honest people are experiencing. citizens.

Judge Rosaire Larouche sent a message to court lawyers against “false prison sentences” Thursday morning at the Chicoutimi courthouse, while he handed out a sentence of 90 days of weekend imprisonment, to increase the chances that it will actually be served behind bars and not in the comfort of a home.

“Since March 2020, we are all in prison at home,” added the magistrate, as if to indicate that under current conditions, an intermittent prison sentence would not be a worse punishment than what all the honest people are experiencing. citizens.

….
What’s next? Notice all the new Weed shops opening in the vacant storefronts? T2’s soma.
Two generations ago young men lied about their age to enlist. Took up arms against the enemy. Stormed beaches.
Nope our elites won’t let that happen again. Drugs drugs. In WW2 IBM ran the camp ledgers and punch cards; Bayer (Now Bayer-Monstanto) fed the poisons.
WW3? FANG and Monstanto.
…………….

— Third shot may be needed to combat new coronavirus variants, Bill Gates says (cbsnews.com)

https://www.salon.com/2017/12/06/science-suggests-fish-become-homicidal-from-flushed-antidepressants_partner/

“When fish swim in waters tainted with antidepressant drugs, they become anxious, antisocial and sometimes even homicidal,” writes Brian Bienkowski of Environmental Health News, who notes that pharmaceuticals “can alter genes responsible for building fish brains.”

Psychoactive pollution suppresses individual differences in fish behaviour
Giovanni Polverino, Jake M. Martin, Michael G. Bertram, Vrishin R. Soman, Hung Tan, Jack A. Brand, Rachel T. Mason and Bob B. M. Wong
Published:10 February 2021https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.2294

Fish raised in drug-free water displayed a wide range of behaviors. Some darted about, whereas others were much “lazier.” But fish exposed to fluoxetine showed fewer differences; most were moderately active, making them all more like an average fish, the team reports today in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B. The drugged guppies were like zombies who did “not have their individuality anymore,” Polverino says.

All told, there was half as much variation in activity levels among drugged fish, making for a much narrower spectrum of personalities. “It’s an enormous drop [in variability], something I have never seen before,” Polverino says.

#118 april on 02.17.21 at 10:50 pm

@68 – I think what Garth is referring to re inflation is the things we need will increase in price and what we don’t need will decrease is price?? We don’t need to buy homes to have shelter.
Correct me if I’m wrong.

#119 Jack on 02.17.21 at 11:04 pm

#11 Captain Uppa on 02.17.21 at 3:08 pm

No one can afford higher rates. I mean NO ONE.

Global debt to GDP is 365%. The system is insolvent.
———————————————————-
Totally agree with Captain Uppa. Nobody can afford high rates. So the rates won’t go up enough to bring a huge wave of insolvencies.

#17 Stone on 02.17.21 at 3:25 pm

Let’s say you are the governor of the Central Bank of Canada. You have the option to keep the rates low and devalue your currency or raise them and trash your country’s GDP and having a huge amount of people go bankrupt. What would you choose? I am sure you’ll go with the first.
I will not be surprised if I ever see the government helping the overly indebted Canadians pay their mortgages…

#120 Someone else on 02.17.21 at 11:06 pm

#90 Blue Lobster on 02.17.21 at 8:04 pm
If you are among the privileged class with a DB pension and the ability to commute, be aware the lump sum value will fall as inflation pushes rates higher.

*******

Mr. Turner, can you (or someone else) please explain why the lump sum value of a DB pension would fall as inflation rises?

Thank you in advance.

_______________

Not a problem, Blue.

Not sure where you got that. I don’t believe that’s what was posted on this blog.
The relationship between interest rates and inflation is inverse, albeit theoretically. So typically, inflation would be higher when interest rates are low. To offset inflation, the cost of money (interest rate) goes up.

Finally, increasing interest rates cause the 5 year bond rates to go up. As this is the most significant variable in calculating your CV, it has a significant impact on the equation. The lower the rate, the higher the payout.

Clear as mud?

#121 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:13 pm

#108 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 9:46 pm
#155 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:40 am
#148 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 10:48 am
#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am

————

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/multi-billion-dollar-hydro-generation-project-proposed-for-meaford-military-base-1.4589053

————

Yep. That’s a fantastic idea. If this was in my jurisdiction, I’d be doing everything possible to secure a piece of the design work.

————

Question for Sail Away

Apart from all the technical stuff about how this would work, and if it would be feasible, do you think we actually need a storage facility as we enter into a new age of EVs? Are EVs not going to flatten the curve of energy demand just by being charged during non-peak hours? Seems to me there won’t be any excess hydro in the coming years, maybe just not enough of it.

————-

Actually, I was being facetious. The idea is ridiculous, since it’s a deficit system: energy out < energy in plus losses.

But… if the government is going to spend $3B on absolute foolishness, I'd be right in there opportunistically designing a specialty system for handsome fees. It's proceeding regardless so may as well benefit.

Whoever vetted and approved this thing must be either government or 3 cans short of a six pack. Or is that saying the same thing?

#122 YEG on 02.17.21 at 11:34 pm

I’m not so convinced about the WFH not sticking around. Our company (hint: in the tallest tower in Edmonton) is getting rid of 30% of our floors. We have been offered to work full time from home, part time, full time at work. The vast majority have picked the first two options. One of our competitors is getting rid of 50% of it’s building footprint. The City of Edmonton staff is giving it’s employees similar options.

I’m assuming my company has come to the conclusion that we are more efficient at home, as efficient from home or (most likely) slightly less efficient but not enough so that removing 30% of our lease costs still comes out ahead.

I would be interested to know what other companies across the country are doing. All i hear is stories that WFH will be gone but where i am i haven’t heard companies demanding their workers come back to the office.

#123 Property Accountant on 02.17.21 at 11:54 pm

This is ALL a joke.

The Canada Bond Market is controlled in over 50% by the Bank of Canada. They buy government bonds, all the time, the word “Market” is wrong in this context , its more like Duopoly of BOC and “The Rest” which BOC calls politely “investors”. BOC decides about everything by purchasing constantly through freshly printed money and keeping the yields low.

And, if you still believe that headline inflation is 0.95% y/y and still did not notice that houses, raw materials (Garth mentioned plywood) specialty meat and many other items went up 20% or more, and still believe in CPI calculation method that includes travel, vacation , entertainment (although we had too much of that in 2020) and excludes house prices (this one we NEVER have enough) then –

Take a BLUE pill , wake up next morning and believe in whatever you want to believe.

#124 AM in MN on 02.18.21 at 12:23 am

#101 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:06 pm
#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

Oil & Gas

O+G froze up, so there should have been more O+G to freeze up? Got it. The renewable mix was outperforming expectations, so there should have been less? Makes sense. The reality is that energy suppliers failed to protect power generation of all kinds due to a hypercapitalist ERCOT business model that profits most when the grid is fragile. The Fox News green power narrative is scapegoating utter failure of the org, not wind power.

—————————————————–

I blamed the Governor who appointed the ERCOT decision makers. They make the decisions about reserve requirements, and have spent years fighting the generators who argue that 2,000MW is not enough for a 68,000MW potential load.

TX is an independent grid, FERC is not involved, so they can’t blame anyone in DC, although the tax subsidies do influence decisions.

TX has been driving their own green new deal for many years now. I think it helps some absolve their guilt over the money they make from Oil & Gas. I wish these affluent white liberals (a requirement for thinking this way) would absolve their guilt by going to church, and quit making life hard for regular people who are not overcome with said guilt.

I mentioned 2 week oil back-up for gas generation, like in New England, for exactly the problems with gas supply that happened.

Problem is it blows the narrative for the virtue signalers. You can read it in the many reports ERCOT publishes on wind and solar power generation in TX. They hate having to see a couple of huge oil storage tanks next to a nice new combined cycle gas turbine plant.

My guess is they clean house at ERCOT, like they did at BP after the big spill, and put in some more hard nosed engineers who will keep the lights on.

#125 NSNG on 02.18.21 at 12:49 am

Apparently, it only takes lefties a decade and a half to learn something. They still haven’t embraced capitalism but at least they have hit bottom in admitting they have a problem:

Venezuela Turns to Privatization After Being Bankrupted by Socialism

After much pain and suffering, Venezuelan socialist leaders have conceded they cannot effectively run an economy.

Early in 2007, after winning a second six-year term as president, Hugo Chávez announced his plan to nationalize Venezuela’s largest telecommunications company, CANTV, hinting at wider nationalization plans to come.

“All that was privatized, let it be nationalized,” announced Chávez, who had run under the banner of democratic socialism.

Nearly a decade and a half later, on the brink of mass famine and a growing energy crisis, Venezuela is now moving in the opposite direction.

According to Bloomberg News, Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has quietly begun transferring state assets back into the hands of private owners in an effort to reverse the country’s economic collapse…

https://fee.org/articles/bloomberg-venezuela-turns-to-privatization-after-being-bankrupted-by-socialism/

#126 Vanguy on 02.18.21 at 1:16 am

40-70 days! That’s how you vaccinated a whack of people. Perhaps if we get the vaccines the US will no longer need once they are all jabbed, with 1/10th of the population, Canada could be vaccinated in 4-7 days

#127 Nonplused on 02.18.21 at 1:47 am

#103 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:17 pm
#83 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:31 pm

#41 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 5:01 pm

Somehow, a “protest” has become a “riot” which has become an “armed insurrection”. Pretty lame “armed insurrection” if you ask me. Couldn’t they have at least brought pitchforks? Or homemade riot gear like ANTIFA uses

Yes, bludgeoning police officers is just fine as long as you use found items? Makes sense. Gallows and noose aren’t typical armament, but are tools for kilking. So, yeah, not armed. Beating police with your maga flag stick? Just protest.

Boggles how effective idiots like you are at absorbing the narrative you hear from righty talking heads. You have zero credibility after the election BS. Just lies and armchair heresay from you, that’s it. Disgusting.

—————————

Ah, I just knew you would come through. You didn’t read the article did you? The one police officer that died probably got pepper sprayed by his own fellow officers. The MAGA crowd killed nobody. Although those that entered the capital building should not have and should face charges. I mean normally it is open to the public for tours but this wasn’t the time, very bad judgement to enter. Especially forcibly. I hope they prosecute every single person for their misdeeds that day, but the one charge that will not be coming forth is one of murder.

But I did look forward to the new insults. Thanks! You did not disappoint. It seems to be a hard-wired skill few of us, not even Penny Henny, can aspire to.

#128 Jane24 on 02.18.21 at 1:48 am

Wow if I still had a house in Canada I would sell tomorrow with a very fast close. I have learned in 66 years that no-one gets the top of the market. It is always safer to leave that final 10% on the table. Then I would move to Southern Europe.

A four bed fully renovated farmhouse/village house with a pool and outbuildings is about $350,000 Cdn in France and Italy and lower than that in Spain or Portugal. I know because I am currently looking at them. Say good-bye to winter. If you have an EU parent or grandparent you qualify for the second passport in most EU countries. If you don’t then get a residential visa.

Living in Italy for part of each year I can tell you that you can live like a King on less than $2000 Cdn per month in Southern Europe.

On the other hand my friend lives in De Nang in Vietnam. He has a luxury one bed flat, fully furnished, all bills paid, on the beach with ocean views and a roof terrace and swimming pool for $400 US per month. Why stay in the snow when the internet allows you to work from anywhere.

#129 Nonplused on 02.18.21 at 1:53 am

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 9:51 pm
#84 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:39 pm
@#24 Puking Ponzie
“I remember when I had my first BIG MAC
I almost threw up.”

How did we get on to this? Nobody forces you to eat McDonald’s.
————
I was new to this glorious country.
And everyone told me:
You gotta have a Big Mac.
So, like a good immigrant, I did.

——————————

Ya well it is an acquired taste, as is alcohol. I just don’t understand why we are talking about it.

McDonald’s was the Tesla of its time, and although I think they are here to stay, I don’t know if it is a growth stock anymore.

And if your kid is hungry after a soccer game, well it is that or Subway. It’s a convenience.

#130 Nonplused on 02.18.21 at 1:59 am

#100 Dogman01 on 02.17.21 at 9:05 pm
#83 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:31 pm

You must be a GenX.

——————————-

You got me. At first I was expecting more insults but then you posted stuff I pretty much agree with. We’re a cynical bunch at this point.

“I can’t see a thing in the video
I can’t hear a sound on the radio
In stereo in the static age” – Green Day

Are you also GenX?

#131 BillyBob on 02.18.21 at 5:10 am

#102 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:09 pm
#89 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:53 pm

#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

even though they weren’t running

There was more wind power on the grid than was forecast or expected for winter. Stop lying.

==============================

No need to get inflammatory. It does seem the carbon-based energy is saving the day actually. Please note the final sentence.

“Abbott said a news conference Wednesday that 6,000 megawatts have been added to the state’s grid — enough power for about 1.2 million households.

There will be additional onboarding coming from the South Texas Nuclear Project and additional operations will increase from coal-produced power, Abbott said.

These sources will add more than 2,000 megawatts to the grid and provide additional power for about 400,000 homes, according to Abbott. About 17,200 megawatts of renewable generated power remain out on Wednesday afternoon, due to “freezing of the wind, or because of lack of sun for the solar,” Abbott said.””

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/17/weather/texas-winter-storm-wednesday/index.html

Doesn’t help that Texas isn’t connected to the national grid so can’t import electricity in their time of need. A good object lesson for the entire US about isolationism and exceptionalism.

#132 LeeChallenged on 02.18.21 at 5:20 am

Garth, so what is your advice for us houseless B&D investors? Buy an overpriced house now to lock in low rates, or wait until (if) house prices melt and get a more expensive mortgage? Or should I simply accept the fact that I will be a renter for life? I am in my mid-40s now, have waited 10 years on the sidelines for the housing bubble to burst and have followed common sense investing rules by the book. I am surely in no mood to wait another 10 years for a real estate crash, which might or might not ever come.

#133 BillyBob on 02.18.21 at 5:34 am

Thanks for posting Bren, Garth. I claim no credit for his beautiful condition, he’s well-looked after by Ms. BB’s folks. They live in a town near the German border where he has plenty of room to run, of course a Prague apartment is entirely unsuitable for a creature his size. We’re heading out there this weekend as we do often.

Breneček as he is affectionately referred to, was a pretty handsome fella when he was little too.

https://ibb.co/nRZgT0N
https://ibb.co/JFbx9Yg

@Dolce
Yeah, I saw that the breed is popular in Italy, didn’t know that. Interesting! I’ll be happy when the Novavax factory is at actual production, hopefully in April. It should be noted that for that to happen the project was initiated in May 2020, which doesn’t bode well for Canada’s Montreal production facility which isn’t even built yet. But if the projected billion doses here by end of 2021 is correct there should be lots for export.

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-expands-large-scale-global-manufacturing-capacity

#134 under the radar on 02.18.21 at 6:00 am

#75 why risk something you have for something you
don’t need.

#89 City home and farm both have generators . I have lost power several times and they kick in almost instantly. Priceless.

#135 Guelph Guru on 02.18.21 at 6:24 am

Firstly: Super thanks Garth. Me thinks, this post was one of the best investment guide. Appreciate it.
Now to some fun gossip.
For the first time, in the last 10 years, I’ve heard people saying that the real estate market is becoming a joke. I hear people discussing about their friends who are super leveraged and how the last few mortgages were secured with falsified income documents. The tide has changed.
Atleast in GTA, I think the pigs are all prepped for the slaughter. It’s going to be bloody.

#136 maxx on 02.18.21 at 7:12 am

@ #11

And that is precisely why rates should immediately begin an upward trajectory.

Consumer debt levels are simply unsustainable. The sick changes in money psychology are exacerbating it all. People just can’t stop spending. Mostly on imported crap.

None of this will change until rates rise.

#137 Sail Away on 02.18.21 at 7:21 am

#126 Nonplused on 02.18.21 at 1:47 am

Ah, I just knew you would come through. You didn’t read the article did you? The one police officer that died probably got pepper sprayed by his own fellow officers. The MAGA crowd killed nobody.

————-

Correct, and it also wasn’t an ‘armed insurrection’, since not a single weapon was in evidence. Well, except the raccoon guy’s horns.

Small wonder the media is not trusted.

An aside to vax: most people I know in the US have been vaxed, or could get vaxed if they want. Now watch their economy go.

#138 willworkforpickles on 02.18.21 at 7:52 am

Real economic growth without business investment is a pipe-dream. Won’t see it after the mid-year spurt in pent up demand buying fizzles out later in the year.
So many businesses been/ being wiped out and counting, won’t turn investment around anywhere near soon enough for employment and wages to rise to counter the bad disruptive inflation here and coming with the good that could pay down debt.
Upward pressure on interest rates will start off slow then pick up later on as the debt to GDP ratio balloons far out of any manageable range of fiscal maintenance when the nations (US) debt holders force their hand.

Canada to follow with rate increases, or suffer a greater fall-out.

#139 willworkforpickles on 02.18.21 at 8:06 am

#117 April
“things we need will increase in price and what we don’t need will decrease is price??”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Stagflation.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.21 at 8:13 am

@#120 Sail Away
“Whoever vetted and approved this thing must be either government or 3 cans short of a six pack. Or is that saying the same thing?”

++++

Legions of bureaucrats in endless meetings , generating thousands of emails……..to spend billions they dont have for a result that isnt needed….

Your tax dollars at work.

I cant wait to see what the Budget will bring in a few weeks….
More spending, higher taxes.

#141 Love_The_Cottage on 02.18.21 at 8:23 am

Bond yields are not a good predictor of inflation:

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/bond-yields-are-not-good-predictors-inflation

#142 Tom from Mississauga on 02.18.21 at 8:28 am

Speaking of inflation, price of forklift operator in Mississauga has gone from $18 an hour last year to $26 (40-50%) with employers looking for multiple candidates. My shift currently needs 5 guys, 3 desperately. Each day we push customers enlarging our back orders.

#143 the Jaguar on 02.18.21 at 8:51 am

The ‘Sit down to a banquet of consequences’ meme rolls on.
https://pressreader.com/article/282067689643641

First the California rolling blackouts, now the situation in Texas. Electrical grids and other infrastructure are being held together with chewing gum and band-aids.
Problematic in a globally connected world.
Everybody needs a ‘bug out plan’ or ‘Kit bag’ for emergencies. In some places more than others. Or maybe August 14, 2003 is just a dim memory and bad things happen to other people. Mercy.

#144 the Jaguar on 02.18.21 at 8:59 am

Case you haven’t had enough of ‘consequences’, here are some Gamestop related ones….

https://pressreader.com/article/282114934283897

#145 Rob on 02.18.21 at 9:23 am

#99 kommykim on 02.17.21 at 8:56 pm
RE: #32 Rob on 02.17.21 at 4:23 pm

=======================================

Canada’s preferred share market is dominated by the rate reset type. (An ETF like CPD holds 79% reset type)
These reset every 5 years to the 5 year bond rate plus a spread. So if a share is close to reset, and the 5yr rate is higher than it was 5 yrs ago, that means that’ll they will pay more for the next 5 year term and their price goes up.

Perpetual preferred shares behave more like 20-50 year bonds since their payout never changes. (CPD has 20%)
These drop in price as interest rates increase

——————————

Thanks for the great response. Appreciate it.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.21 at 9:25 am

@#140 Tom from Mississauga
“My shift currently needs 5 guys, 3 desperately.”

++++

Yep.

Young CERB-ians have a great life if they’re livin with Mom and Dad.

Why work when you can stay at home?

I cant wait to see what delusional socialist cash give away the Libralistas think up in next months budget

Subsidized Daycare ( 10’s of Billions)
Subsidized Elderly Homes ( 10’s of Billions)
Subsidized Pharma care ( 10’s of Billions)
Equality Hiring( based on gender identity NOT qualifications) in all professions ( Billions $$$$)
Another National Gun Program that wont work ( the illegal guns will keep coming) ($Billion$).

On and on and on
Spend and raise taxes, spend more and raise taxes even higher….
Eventually the voters will get it.

#147 Saquib Syed on 02.18.21 at 9:45 am

What about interested rates going negative? That’s still a real possibility if the global economy doesn’t recover as expected?

No. The opposite. – Garth

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.21 at 9:48 am

Facebook shuts down Newsfeed links in Australia…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-media-facebook/facebook-unfriends-australia-news-pages-go-dark-in-test-for-global-publishing-idUSKBN2AI02A?il=0

Millions, blink, step away from their screen, go outside and realize what a beautiful day it is….

Govts around the world evaluate potential tax revenue.
Time to sell your Facebook stock…?

#149 Dharma Bum on 02.18.21 at 9:55 am

#93 Backbacon Crusader

“Work from Home employees have far better absenteeism rates.”
————————————————————————

WFH absenteeism:

Employer: “Hey Bumstead! Why are you not at home today??”

Employee: “Well, Mr. Dithers, sir, I’m not feeling well, so I had to go into the office.”

#150 millmech on 02.18.21 at 10:14 am

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/lmhhlz/keep_an_inherited_house_or_sell/
This is a very interesting predicament for this poster, make 5K/mth in rental income or 12.5k/mth in dividend income if they sell for three million.
They will not sell, math is hard!

#151 IHCTD9 on 02.18.21 at 10:18 am

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 9:51 pm

I was new to this glorious country.
And everyone told me:
You gotta have a Big Mac.
So, like a good immigrant, I did.
___

You probably puked because you were raised all your life on boiled potatoes, green beans, and a fried pork chop with a little salt for flavour (if you were lucky) – amirite?

#152 Hill of Beans on 02.18.21 at 10:39 am

DELETED

#153 IHCTD9 on 02.18.21 at 10:50 am

#89 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:53 pm

Anyway if you don’t have a generator, buy one, preferably duel fuel. And keep a week of fuel on hand.
___

I have this task on my list. I’ve settled on diesel as it stores a lot longer than gasoline, and is more energy dense than propane. I’ve even thought about going with a spark ignition engine and a charcoal gasifier for fuel.

A charcoal gasifier would really be the ultimate. Simple easy build, easy light up, smoke and stink free, and you could literally just pile the fuel outside in the back 40 and it’ll still be perfect – even hundreds of years from now.

Fuel could be made any time, and from almost anything carbon based. Charcoal has a lot of great benefits as a back up fuel source. It’s at home supplying gas for an hour or two, or for months, or for as long as your internal gasifier parts can handle the white hot heat…

#154 Faron on 02.18.21 at 11:07 am

#121 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:13 pm

#108 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 9:46 pm
#155 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:40 am
#148 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 10:48 am
#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am

————-

Actually, I was being facetious. The idea is ridiculous, since it’s a deficit system: energy out < energy in plus losses

Uh, that's true for literally everything save for processes that convert mass to energy. Any storage system has losses.

#155 Faron on 02.18.21 at 11:16 am

#137 Sail Away on 02.18.21 at 7:21 am

#126 Nonplused on 02.18.21 at 1:47 am

Ah, I just knew you would come through. You didn’t read the article did you? The one police officer that died probably got pepper sprayed by his own fellow officers. The MAGA crowd killed nobody.

————-

Correct, and it also wasn’t an ‘armed insurrection’, since not a single weapon was in evidence

Nonplused, I’m not going to read your stupid article because you show time and again that you are unhinged from fact. Why would I waste my time?

Both of you: granted that calling it an “armed insurrection” strategically evokes gun toting yahoos. But when there is footage of the efftards using found objects as weapons to beat police officers, that’s armed. Or, in your world, is a crowd unarmed if it goes to an event empty handed but later finds and takes up weapons? What a joke. And little surprise you are spinning those events. Eventually you will be crowing that they were heroes and patriots. Utter BS.

#156 #132 on 02.18.21 at 11:28 am

I find myself in the exact same situation, the wife would love a house but she knows it’s a crazy time to buy with all the bidding war madness that is going on. How can you compete when houses are going 150-200 over asking for a piece of crap, better to rent and keep investing I think.

#157 Faron on 02.18.21 at 11:28 am

#131 BillyBob on 02.18.21 at 5:10 am

#102 Faron on 02.17.21 at 9:09 pm
#89 Nonplused on 02.17.21 at 7:53 pm

#55 AM in MN on 02.17.21 at 5:47 pm

even though they weren’t running

There was more wind power on the grid than was forecast or expected for winter. Stop lying.

==============================

No need to get inflammatory. It does seem the carbon-based energy is saving the day actually

Every need to get inflammatory. Nonplused continually posts fabrications from god knows where internet land and innocently plays them off as his expertise. The behaviour is consistent and disengenuous and worthy of anger. More so given his ho-hum milque toast approach.

When carbon-based energy failure ruined the day, it doesn’t get to save it. Sorry. That’s like claiming that putting out a fire you started is heroic. Zero sum. Nope.

I’ll give you that the events in Texas are more complex than my blunt arguing here. But using these events to lay blame at the feet of wind power is just dead incorrect. Given nonplused consistent misinformation, it has to be called lying.

#158 Wrk.dover on 02.18.21 at 11:33 am

#150 millmech on 02.18.21 at 10:14 am
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/lmhhlz/keep_an_inherited_house_or_sell/
This is a very interesting predicament for this poster, make 5K/mth in rental income or 12.5k/mth in dividend income if they sell for three million.
They will not sell, math is hard!

—————————————————-

My stand alone deeded guest house is worth 1% of that house and I routinely turn down 10% of that other guys rent potential.

Forever empty, it’s better that way.

————————————-

Propane powered generators:
propane fuel stored in tank good forever.
All other options, nope.

I plug my gen into a Generlink Products device behind the meter, everything beyond is then powered. Ahhhh.

#159 jess on 02.18.21 at 11:42 am

facebook “unfriended’ australia

does this company deserve the criticism of propagators of propaganda, hate speech, and fake news online?

https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-click-gap-news-feed-changes/

#160 Dr V on 02.18.21 at 12:08 pm

139 Pickles (in response to 118 April)

Not quite.

Stagflation:

“persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy.”

the 70s was a period of such.

What April described was:

Biflation

“The term is generally defined as inflation and deflation occurring simultaneously in different parts of the economy”

I don’t like arguing definitions, as everyone can have a different interpretation, but it is important to understand the terms describe different economic conditions.

#161 Love_The_Cottage on 02.18.21 at 12:22 pm

#158 Wrk.dover on 02.18.21 at 11:33 am

Propane powered generators:propane fuel stored in tank good forever.All other options, nope.
_________
When we switched our wood burning fireplace to gas I made sure the model I bought would run without electricity. It actually does require batteries so we keep a big supply of the right size. Of course if both the gas and power are out I’m screwed, but it’s a bit of comfort without much additional expense.

#162 Faron on 02.18.21 at 12:32 pm

w/re nonplused and others falsely claiming renewables caused the hell Texas is currently in:

https://apnews.com/article/false-claims-texas-blackout-wind-turbine-f9e24976e9723021bec21f9a68afe927?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=APFactCheck

to wit:

a variety of misleading claims spread on social media around renewable energy, with wind turbines and the Green New Deal getting much of the attention.

A viral photo of a helicopter de-icing a wind turbine was shared with claims it showed a “chemical” solution being applied to one of the massive wind generators in Texas. The only problem? The photo was taken in Sweden years ago, not in the U.S. in 2021. The helicopter sprayed hot water onto the wind turbine, not chemicals.

You guys have zero discernment and zero credibility. Facts matter and quality journalism matters. Grow up.

#163 Faron on 02.18.21 at 12:39 pm

#160 Dr V on 02.18.21 at 12:08 pm

139 Pickles (in response to 118 April)

Biflation

That’s a cool term and seems to be an apt descriptor. Describes how consumer electronics (non essential) keep getting cheaper while housing (essential) keeps rising. I agree that these definitions are important, thanks for sharing.

#164 Sail Away on 02.18.21 at 12:44 pm

#155 Faron on 02.18.21 at 11:16 am

Nonplused, I’m not going to read your stupid article because you show time and again that you are unhinged from fact. Why would I waste my time?

———-

Of course. Who knows? It might have been written by that bigoted Nicholas Sandmann.

#165 Faron on 02.18.21 at 12:44 pm

#70 Ustabe on 02.17.21 at 6:48 pm

I am somewhat amused by the vision of a tuff Texas R, proudly owning 37 machine guns who needs a 9mm strapped to go to the grocery store and who is now home bound by some snowflakes.

Hah! I missed this. Hilarious. Those claiming that ERCOT greenwashed anything forget who Texans are and how republican the state is. The fact that there is any wind on the grid is owed to just how cheap wind power is. Capitalism. If you can double up and call it green and get some kudos for doing so, why not.

But the underlying problem that led to ERCOT’s failure was in running an independent grid on the bleeding edge of capacity. Works fine 9 out of 10 years and makes the owners a boat load of money when supplies are tight. But when supplies can not meet demand, she goes down. Boom.

Texas is in a world of hurt right now. Alberta, take note.

#166 Faron on 02.18.21 at 1:06 pm

#164 Sail Away on 02.18.21 at 12:44 pm

#155 Faron on 02.18.21 at 11:16 am

Of course.

Fair enough, but life is too short not to apply heuristics to the likes of those who have no credibility. Nonplused’s hit rate is so low, that my heuristic with him is “all links he posts are garbage, especially those from a glorified newsletter site”. I’m willing to miss out on any “facts” because the likelihood of their existence is neigh 0.

#167 Lead Paint on 02.19.21 at 1:45 am

Back to We charity and gross revenue going from the brothers charity to their for-profit business”

“Before, it was one percent, two percent. What you see is them ramp up in fiscal 2018 when eight percent of WE Charity’s total revenues are going into the private business and in 2019, seven percent. And you’re dealing with a 60 million dollar charity here, so we’re not talking chump change.”

Is canadaland reputable?