The everything bubble

A two-by-four at Home Depot now costs more than seven bucks. As mentioned here, puppies are going for three grand. If you can find one. Boats, RVs, quads, sleds and cruisers are sold out, backordered or just gone. Try buying a Peloton. Or a house in the suburbs, for that matter. Inventory is scarce and prices are rising two or three per cent. Weekly.

The official inflation rate was just 1% (per year) in November. Then it dropped to 0.7% as 2020 ended. That’s the latest stat, and it seems hopelessly, bizarrely inaccurate. If you’re shopping for a sheet of G1S plywood you know what we mean.

As for wages, they rose 4% between January of 2019 and a year ago. No stats since Covid hit, but given the fact we have 9.4% unemployment, they’re probably not so hot. By the way, the average salary in Canada last year was $54,630. Not enough to dwell happily in Mississauga, for example, where the average detached house costs $1.15 million and two-bedroom apartments rent for $2,100 a month.

Well, this is an odd world. It makes some people worry. Actually, lots of people. Investors, anxious to hold on to what they’ve got. Dale is one of them who just wrote me about the “overheated stock market.

“It’s just the current mania of people investing stimulus money in speculative things like Bitcoin, Gamestop, AMC and the like is enough to cause concern. The world’s economy has been crippled by this nasty virus and yet governments around the world are printing money like crazy. The music will stop like it always does, and when it does it’s reasonable to expect a serious reset in stock prices. That will directly impact the performance of our investments.”

He’s not alone.

In the midst of a pandemic, global stocks are on a 17-year tear. Everywhere. Here. The US. Europe. Japan. Tesla and Shopify are ridiculous. What the Redditers and Hoodies did was epic. Bitcoin has flown into the delirium. So it’s not just Brampton houses, paving stones, exercise bikes and Golden Retrievers. It’s everything. So, should you worry along with Dale?

Sure, it you want to. Retreat to cash or a 1% GIC. Do what makes you comfortable. But understand all this talk of a great reckoning is, well, probably just talk. Before mentioning some of those reason why, check this chart out. It’s the stock market (the S&P 500) over the last 90 years. Booms. Busts. Recessions. Depressions. Wars. Inflation. Stagflation. Crises. Trump. Reddit. The works. Two conclusions: (a) it fluctuates and (b) the long-term direction is up.

What the S&P 500 has done over 90 years

Why are markets rising now, despite the slimy little pathogen, small-business slaughter, structural unemployment, a yawning wealth divide, the Proud Boys and society’s headlong plunge into unrepayable debt?

First, stimulus. Fiscal and monetary. Governments have dealt with the virus by throwing massive amounts of money around. The CERB cheques. The central bank bond-buying. The crashed interest rates. Wage subsidies and business bailouts. Politicians have spent over $20 trillion globally because of the bug (a trillion is a thousand times a billion), and that cash has done exactly what they wanted – burrowing its way into the economy. So markets and prices go up.

Second, where else is investment cash going to go but into growth assets or real ones? Bank savings accounts pay nothing. GICs are yielding diddly. Bond yields are slowly rising but still return half a per cent for a five-year commitment. Every day that money lies around it buys less of a house, a dog or an $80,000 Princecraft fishing boat. Meanwhile Bay Street stocks are up 65% from last year’s lows and the S&P has surged 80%. In 2020 a boring B&D portfolio returned 7.5% and the two-year gain is 24%. Now bond prices are falling as most of the ‘safe’ money flows into ‘risk’ assets.

Third, vaccine lift. As this blog has said since last February, pandemics are temporary. They pass. This one is on the way out and the world will look incredibly different by the end of the summer. Global GDP will expand. A torrent of saved consumer cash will be unleashed. Retailers will reopen. People will go back to work. Downtowns will, phoenix-like, rise again. Corporate profits will augment. Markets are reflecting that now, as they’re forward-looking. If a correction occurs – a 5% or 10% plop – you can be sure the pros will be backing up their trucks.

Fourth, demand. Not only are brave couples willing to finance $1 million mortgages, but investment pros can’t stop buying. The optimism among fund managers for stocks is at 61%, the second highest measure ever. Cash levels among investors are at an eight-year low. Again, as company profits rekindle, there’s more to come. The economy could look like a Musk rocket in Q3.

But, but, but, could it still be a bubble, like Dale worries?

Of course. Nothing’s for sure. Sentiment can turn. An event can happen. A vaccine might fail. That’s exactly why smart, careful people ensure they invest correctly. No individual stocks, but a diversified holding through good ETFs with high liquidity. No big bet on any one thing, especially an asset that’s gone nuts, like GameStop did, or Bitcoin is now. That’s gambling, not investing. Never chase returns.

Be balanced, with safe assets that can cushion volatility or protect when rates starts to rise (like preferreds). No mutual funds with their performance-murdering MERs. No bank or brokerage proprietary funds which lack liquidity and often transparency. Not too much maple just coz you live here, but instead a truly global approach to holding equity exposure.

The key is to invest, stay invested, rebalance every year or so, and keep your damn emotions in check. Stop reading stupid financial blogs. Stay the hell away from Reddit. Don’t look at your portfolio every day. Or week. Or even every month.

If you can’t, then go to cash. But only if you already have heaps. And a puppy.

About the picture: Craig spotted this guy at a dog adoption centre in the Republic of Georgia. “This was a shepherd dog and we were happy to be behind glass as it appeared very ferocious until it got closer. This one was healthy (and large). The country also has numerous strays and we saw many that were living in old cars, abandoned fridges and culverts. Most of them very friendly but the professional guard dogs were often scary. They wear the collar to prevent wolf attacks.” Shelters in Canada may be mostly empty, but not there. Check this out.

171 comments ↓

#1 Vancouverite on 02.16.21 at 2:43 pm

Hi Garth,

Any indications when the next federal budget is introduced?

And new taxes to fund all these new spending?

#2 Canadian Soldier on 02.16.21 at 2:45 pm

Excellent points Sir, the game is changing. Any thoughts on Michael Saylor or Elon’s moves? These are smart men, I think they see the writing on the wall. Bitcoin will become a Reserve currency, it is already bigger than the CAD.

#3 SnowOwl on 02.16.21 at 2:53 pm

Just curious, is anybody buying long-term treasuries today? TLT?

#4 Dolce Vita on 02.16.21 at 2:54 pm

That was excellent Garth. Pretty much how I see it.

As for vaxing, ya, we’re behind but by Summer a lot more will be available from the likes of Novavax and J&J including Pfizer which now seems to be resuming deliveries.

We might even make end of Sept for all vax’d (15 yrs and older).

I say once that happens, watch inflation go crazy as a result of pent up demand (stuff you do outside the safety of your home prison* but aren’t).

And with it The Markets. All in on that.

As for now the lull of anticipation.

—————————–

*I often wonder if S. L. Pathogen has created a Nation (World) of Homebodies and that sticks after “Covid delenda est”?

#5 bdwy on 02.16.21 at 2:55 pm

shorted the sp500 this morning, looks like a bubble to me.

#6 Katherine on 02.16.21 at 2:56 pm

Don’t forget that kittens are in demand too and selling for at least $600…..$2500 for a Bengal. I know this blog favours dogs, but many people do love their feline family members.

How did you get in here? – Garth

#7 I’m stupid on 02.16.21 at 2:59 pm

Well I do hvac in new houses. I have over 200 houses ready or almost ready for hvac yet I might be out of work. How is that possible you might ask. Well there’s a metal shortage. I’m small potatoes so if I can’t get metal it’s one thing but when DonPark can’t find metal there’s a problem.

If you don’t know who donpark is I tell you. Donpark is the largest sheet metal production company in Ontario maybe Canada. I get material from them and they don’t have any. So here we are.

#8 TurnerNation on 02.16.21 at 3:01 pm

-What’s going on in Kanada.
Is the Newfoundland shutdown, forcing the mail-in ballots, a little test zone – to get us ready for mail-ins? Ahead of the Federal election?
May I remind you the 2008 GFC was first rolled out another sea-bound land, island of Iceland – another small, isolated homogeneous zone, perfect testbed – whereby all their banks blew up early on and first?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_financial_crisis

–What’s going on around the world.

Our global elites will PROFIT off us. Who gets all the DNA from all the tests anyway?

“Richard Branson is going public with 23andMe, which means the company will sell the genetic information of 11 million customers to Big Pharma, Big Government, or whoever.” Marketwatch.com

……….

— Hey does this sound familiar? 2 week s.See if they told us it would be years 2020-2025 of rolling lockdowns* people would revolt. The A.I. seems to think that two weeks is an acceptable mind control device. And this WW3 is for our minds.

“Earlier in the week, the Moroccan government decided, again, to renew the restrictions for another two weeks. They have been doing that since March 2020.
They extend the emergency state for another month the night it’s supposed to be over. They extend the restrictions every two weeks the night they’re supposed to be lifted. That has been their modus operandi”

*My source on the rolling economic lockdowns, a little body called the International Monetary Fund – IMF. From April 2020 the IMF plan. Page 6. Financial aid is planned until March 2025! They call it a Project. How nice.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/03/sp060320-remarks-to-world-economic-forum-the-great-reset
“This is the moment to decide that history will look back on this as the Great Reset, not the Great Reversal.
Country(ies)
World

Project Name
COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program (SPRP)

Expected Project Approval
Date
02-Apr-2020

Expected Project Closing
Date
31-Mar-2025″

…………….

— What is the goal is these Economic Shut downs. Not sure yet but saw this elsewhere

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy
Michael Reisch and Janice Andrews wrote that Cloward and Piven “proposed to create a crisis in the current welfare system – by exploiting the gap between welfare law and practice – that would ultimately bring about its collapse and replace it with a system of guaranteed annual income. They hoped to accomplish this end by informing the poor of their rights to welfare assistance, encouraging them to apply for benefits and, in effect, overloading an already overburdened bureaucracy.”[3]

#9 Linda on 02.16.21 at 3:01 pm

It is interesting about how inflation figures are not (as yet) reflecting the price increases everyday folk see when they venture into shops of any kind. Can we believe our official inflation stats are Frankenumbers like RE stats have been proclaimed to be? Is our government hiding the truth because it would not only have repercussions for government programs like CPP/OAS but also possibly trigger consumer panic? Because that pent up demand isn’t likely to do anything but drive the price of goods higher.

#10 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 3:03 pm

I moved from a robo-advisor (WS Invest) to a self-directed platform (WS Trade) today. I’ve allocated 50% of my very modest balance to XEQT, 25% to EARK, and 25% to TEC. I plan to set it and forget it for a long time.

Please critique my choices, blog dogs!! As an FYI, my spouse and I both have DB pensions. If that makes any difference.

#11 KNOW IT ALL on 02.16.21 at 3:05 pm

ELON Musk just made TESLA more off of its Bitcoin holdings in 2 weeks than TESLA has made in 10 years selling vehicles.

Let that sink in for a bit.

#12 Doug t on 02.16.21 at 3:12 pm

Something wicked this way comes

#13 Faron on 02.16.21 at 3:13 pm

Thanks for the post today Garth. Yeah, uppa.

I spend too much time reading commentary from options/volatility traders who tend to be a bit doomy. Still, the general impression I get is that the window for a correction is closing a bit (it never closes entirely). COVID provides a nucleus of fear that gives the market potential for shakes, but the overall sentiment is, if there is a correction, it will be fairly small and if it happens BUY THE DIP.

If you hold QQQ, watch them bonds kids. Tech does not like high interest rates. Tech holders will exit in favour of safer havens once yields go up. Huge leap in yield for the ten year today of 10bp at one point, now at 1.30% (August low was 0.50%). Big jump in VXN, which is VIX for the NASDAQ despite a modest decline in the index. Big jump in the volatility of the 10 year as well.

Meanwhile, commodities continue to surgeXBM up 4.5% as copper ramps.. XBM up 4.5% as copper ramps. Oil up big lately too. And, the consensus following the chaos of the Texas cold snap is that nuclear is a must for our future. The Horizons Uranium ETF is up 9% today.

Sectors that do like high rates? Banks, O+G, insurance == Canadian equities. Maple might have a nice time in the high interest rate world if the RE bum-out doesn’t get in the way.

#14 Drill Baby Drill on 02.16.21 at 3:17 pm

I have been doing repairs and mods on my home over the past 7 months. I can attest that lumber has at least doubled in the past 6 mths. Many lumber types are out of stock. A litre of gasoline today is $1.18 CAD.

#15 S.O on 02.16.21 at 3:19 pm

Slow and steady, but I always keep some extra cash for the big drops.

#16 Katherine on 02.16.21 at 3:20 pm

#5 Don’t forget that kittens are in demand too and selling for at least $600…..$2500 for a Bengal. I know this blog favours dogs, but many people do love their feline family members.

How did you get in here? – Garth

Awww Garth, you occasionally post a kitty photo. And I also love dogs. Your Bandit was a beauty! I loved reading about him and seeing his photos. So sorry for your loss.

#17 Lee on 02.16.21 at 3:22 pm

What’s sufficient liquidity for an equity ETF? Some with regular daily volumes of under 5,000 are pretty good.

#18 Stone on 02.16.21 at 3:24 pm

#9 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 3:03 pm
I moved from a robo-advisor (WS Invest) to a self-directed platform (WS Trade) today. I’ve allocated 50% of my very modest balance to XEQT, 25% to EARK, and 25% to TEC. I plan to set it and forget it for a long time.

Please critique my choices, blog dogs!! As an FYI, my spouse and I both have DB pensions. If that makes any difference.

———

That’s feisty. So no funds in reserve to rebalance if needed. No pref ETF. No short term bond ETF.

I predict an anxiety and panic attack and a quick triggered finger on the sell button. Your greed is openly showing.

Just curious. What is a modest balance? Modest is a relative term.

Good luck to you.

#19 Truth on 02.16.21 at 3:29 pm

How much is heaps?

#20 Dan in Nanaimo on 02.16.21 at 3:30 pm

Nice to see the TNX (10 year) yield rising. Let’s see how long the FED can keep the yields low and the sugar high going. Hopefully this is the start of a new trend and, if so, let the good times roll…

#21 Faron on 02.16.21 at 3:32 pm

#7 Linda on 02.16.21 at 3:01 pm

TIPS are currently pricing in 2.2% – 2.5% inflation. It’s coming.

#22 S.Bby on 02.16.21 at 3:37 pm

I heard a new phrase the other day: “revenge spending” it is when people are out spending excessively on the things they were not able to buy during the lockdowns. A shopping spree if you will.

#23 S.Bby on 02.16.21 at 3:40 pm

Random Length lumber @ $843.40 today so a bit off from the recent highs.

#24 A. Trugell on 02.16.21 at 3:51 pm

“ If you can’t, then go to cash. But only if you already have heaps. And a puppy.”
……………………………………………………..
Garth I respected you already. But I respect you even more now. To find an investment professional that will even mumble the word bubble today is indeed a rarity.

Again thanks for your candid.

#25 Yukon Elvis on 02.16.21 at 3:53 pm

BOC governor has assured us that there is no housing bubble and that inflation is under 2%. So there ya go. The heavy lifting has been done for you. Enjoy.
A.E. Neuman

#26 JSS on 02.16.21 at 3:54 pm

#18 Truth on 02.16.21 at 3:29 pm
How much is heaps?


I believe a “heap” is equal to the greater of the sum of two hands worth.

Any PhD’s in mathematics out there, if you can please confirm thanks

#27 Devil Anse on 02.16.21 at 3:55 pm

The official inflation rate was just 1% (per year) in November. Then it dropped to 0.7% as 2020 ended. That’s the latest stat, and it seems hopelessly, bizarrely inaccurate. If you’re shopping for a sheet of G1S plywood you know what we mean.

——————————————-

I am very skeptical about the CPI and official inflation numbers. I would be curious of your team’s opinion on where inflation is headed, and whether it is even calculated accurately.

#28 Faron on 02.16.21 at 3:56 pm

#17 Stone on 02.16.21 at 3:24 pm
#9 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 3:03 pm

I misread the thread at first and though it was Stone who made the change. My first thought was WTF?!

TL;DR — sounds like greedy FOMO. Selll and transfer right back into wealthsimple and ramp to 80:20 if you are feeling spicy.

I agree with Stone. It’s easy to say you will hold until the end of time, but the proof will be in the pudding. You are exposed to much larger losses in those tech heavy names and unless you have “diamond hands” will get really itchy to sell when EARK drops by 15%. Also see my previous post on tech vs interest rates. In the coming higher rate environment, debt heavy tech is vulnerable. Furthermore, the crowd looking for return from momo will be lured away by safer higher returns elsewhere.

Cathy Wood is overhyped IMO, so I have bias there. I don’t like cults of personality and she’s cultish as is Elon. So you have cult^2.

If you believe in Cathy, do 5% in EARK max and add to it proportionately.

I’d go 10% in TEC. Keep your 50% in XEQT. Put 10% in preferreds, 10% in bonds (those two will help keep you capitalized in a drop so you can rebalance into equities and give you a smidge of income) and the remaining 15% in XIC because I think higher rates will be good for Canadian equities SHOP notwithstanding.

#29 S.Bby on 02.16.21 at 3:57 pm

Gas is a buck forty a litre in Vancouver now and a few weeks ago it was around a buck twenty or less.

#30 Scott Dyann on 02.16.21 at 3:58 pm

Longest term provincial bonds are yielding 2.25% to 2.6% and longest term investment grade corporate bonds are yielding 3.25% to 3.55% which are not the greatest but much better than 1%.

I see them going up higher, yielding higher interest rates, bond yields by at least another 25 to 35 basis points or 0.25% to 0.35% more in coming weeks, maybe couple of months.

#31 Rook on 02.16.21 at 4:02 pm

My S&P etf (vfv, though I should probably switch to the USD etf) has been on a tear for the last several years. Been selling half my position when it hits all time highs, and buying the dip. I never liquidate the whole thing, because upside is all positive. Rationale: if the s&p ever goes to zero, I’ll be worried about a lot more than the value of my retirement. More like, how many potatoes equals one roll of tp?

So, as we see yet another ath, I sell into that, too. Now I have plenty of dry powder to buy the next dip, AND I’m still invested in capturing any residual up-side. And I discovered 100 shares of WEED I’d forgotten about after I made my initial investment back and let the rest ride. 500% returns thus far.

The fact this has been so easy has me concerned. I don’t quite have a down payment for a Toronto condo, but according to a realtor friend, I’m doing quite well for myself, all things considered.

Next up: planning my escape from Toronto. Maybe Ottawa, or Halifax or Kingston. Covid blew a giant hole in the coty’s finances and three guesses how they’ll plug it. Time to leave for greener pastures now that I’ve gotten what I need from the city: my money and my industry experience. I’ll take my tax dollars to a smaller city where I can actually afford dirt (for now), and see how it goes there.

#32 Bert on 02.16.21 at 4:05 pm

Record level of fund managers are overweight re opening themes i.e. cyclicals, banks, emerging markets, small caps and commodities. Healthcare, tech, growth stocks and the US are unloved.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/record-number-of-fund-managers-overweight-on-emerging-markets-says-bofa-survey

#33 Dolce Vita on 02.16.21 at 4:06 pm

The only worry about Fall? for a resumption of “normal” in Canada to me is the UK variant (the nice one, N501Y). It was first found in Kent in Sept 2020, just a few cases.

It starts up slowly but when it gets rolling, well here is the UK cases chart (basically took it from Sep to early Dec to take hold):

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=~GBR&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

It also has a higher death rate:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=~GBR&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

That variant is in Canada. They expect it take over in late March (by Medical people – I think all they did was look at the above charts and guesstimate the “in between” period).

Canada is still vulnerable since this many vax’d as of today:

978,543 single dose
315,146 double dose

Vax deliveries to Apr 4 enough for another 1.72M Cdns vaxd 2 doses. That leaves 35M Cdns NOT vax’d by then (29M 15 yrs or older).

Precarious Spring. A lot of people vulnerable to get sick. I DO NOT think it will be as bad as it was in the UK, afterall Canada has had ample warning and the UK experience at beating that variant down.

Canada also has a well trained LOCKDOWN populace that knows how to amuse itself at home and Gov’s willing to give them cash to do so.

Why I remain hopeful.

And it has STARTED here in the EU. 4 Communes in strict lockdown in Italia today, all the UK variant. Czechia livid with the UK as cases there beginning to soar with that variant according to them.

—————————

Summer vax relief, Spring sickness is what I see for now. Sickness as Canada doing the right thing by vaxing the most vulnerable first (i.e., not as high a death rate as in the UK).

After all that, good times like you wrote about today Garth. End of Sept? Later? Earlier?

We’ll just have to wait and see. Enjoy the LULL now I say.

#34 Spiltbongwater on 02.16.21 at 4:10 pm

My wife is getting house hungry. We offered on a North Delta rancher last week. Assessment is $880,000 give or take. We offered over asking of $970,000. House sold with 28 offers for $1,230,000

#35 neo on 02.16.21 at 4:13 pm

Hmmmmm….The U.S. 10 year just sailed past 1.20% and closed around 1.30%. By the time spring rolls around it will be north of 1.50%. By May things get very interesting for the equity markets if the Fed doesn’t start meddling again.

#36 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:25 pm

#17 Stone

That’s feisty. So no funds in reserve to rebalance if needed. No pref ETF. No short term bond ETF.

I predict an anxiety and panic attack and a quick triggered finger on the sell button. Your greed is openly showing.

Just curious. What is a modest balance? Modest is a relative term.

Good luck to you.

—-

Not trying to be greedy at all. I felt I did my due diligence, read some useful resources, etc. Not once did I stop contributing or withdraw from WS Invest since I started last year. I thought I could go into more high-risk funds due to our DB Pensions and ages (early 30s). Modest balance is approximately $3k with a $50 weekly deposit.

#37 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:36 pm

#27 Faron

Thank you for the response. Would it be beneficial to simply go into XGRO rather than XEQT for the bond exposure? Perhaps I should consider toning down on the EARK and TEC allocations. I do respect your (and Stone’s) knowledge on the matter.

#38 Reximus on 02.16.21 at 4:37 pm

this country is one giant forest…how on earth is there a lumber shortage? can there be so much demand that the industry cant keep up, or is production way down

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 4:52 pm

In Hamburg, Germany, they are severely restricting the building of new SFHs in the burbs.
Which of course drives up prices of existing stock.
Which makes WFH more less appealing.
Maybe coming to a burb near you.

#40 Baron on 02.16.21 at 4:52 pm

#37 this country is one giant forest…how on earth is there a lumber shortage? can there be so much demand that the industry cant keep up, or is production way down

It’s their excuse to increase their Margins. There is no shortage.

#41 As Is Old Man on 02.16.21 at 4:56 pm

Some info from the Ottawa Humane Society just posted:

“The Dark Side of that Puppy You Just Bought”

https://ottawahumane.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/FEB_2021_AA.html

#42 Snoopy on 02.16.21 at 4:57 pm

#24
BOC governor has assured us that there is no housing bubble and that inflation is under 2%

The Guv’na is an Effing schmuk!!!

#43 NSNG on 02.16.21 at 5:00 pm

Canada is like a kid running a shopping really fast cart down a long corridor. As long as he stays in the middle he’ll be fine. If he touches either side he going to set off a chain reaction of chaos

#44 truefacts on 02.16.21 at 5:02 pm

Buffett keeps $150 billion set aside – and that keeps growing… He hasn’t bought big although some “mystery stock” purchase is supposed to be revealed soon.

Is he just an idiot or concerned about the ever increasing markets? Garth?

#45 Parkville Prankster on 02.16.21 at 5:04 pm

Now THAT’S entertainment, the kind of blog that keeps me coming back! I paid for the whole seat, but I only ended up using the front edge.

#46 Centrist on 02.16.21 at 5:05 pm

Who is going to pay for those deficits?

Will it be the poor who are told that they can’t get welfare cheque increases to fund the middle class CERB lifestyle?

Civil unrest might happen if that was the case. Many current and former politicians were begging for a Basic Income, but when the pandemic happened, look at how fast the government handed over CERB to the middle class.

When the time comes to pay the deficit, Lisa MacLeod will tell Queen’s Park that the “best social assistance is a JOB” while giving free money to bloat the stock and real estate markets for the rich.

#47 Millennial 1%er on 02.16.21 at 5:25 pm

I’ve been trying to hold 3% in crypto because of my genuine interest but it’s been proving difficult, it keeps on climbing to 5%, then 10%

#48 jess on 02.16.21 at 5:28 pm

update on beneficial ownership registries looks like denmark is leading

https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/frequently-asked-questions#what-is-an-ultimate-beneficial-owner-ubo-why-is-it-important-to-know-the-identities-of-ubos

“Beneficial ownership transparency is widely considered to be a key policy for tackling illicit financial flows that encompass cross-border financial transactions for money laundering, tax evasion, corruption and the financing of terrorism. By identifying, registering and disclosing the identities of natural persons who ultimately own or control legal vehicles, the abuse of corporate secrecy can be prevented. Yet, for the verification of beneficial ownership data in cross-border settings, and for successfully tackling investment and hedge fund opacity, it is increasingly acknowledged that beneficial ownership information alone (the last layer of ownership) is not enough. Rather, registration of all legal owners (first layer, and ideally all intermediary entities in the ownership chain) is a prerequisite for the integrity of ownership data.

The analysis of ownership registration as presented in this report and the importance of improving transparency and harmonising ownership registers was recently upheld by the European Union in a new study “Improving Anti-Money Laundering Policy”, which proposed beneficial ownership registries as a way to reduce the number of letter box or shell companies across countries.
Transparency advocates say that UBO registers should be free and open to the public. People have the right to know who is building a factory in their town, selling insurance, teaching their children, or providing their medicine. Journalists and other civil society actors want access so they can investigate corrupt actors independently of law enforcement. As an additional benefit, they argue, this information would allow legitimate companies to know who they’re doing business with, limiting their exposure to bad actors.”
=========

“According to EU regulations, member states were supposed to adopt publicly available beneficial ownership registers by January 10, 2020, but most have not done so. Luxembourg is one of only five member states to have implemented a register that is free and publicly accessible. The others are Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, and Slovenia.

Though other EU member states also have registers, seven have put up paywalls and 17 have not made theirs available to the public. The U.S. Corporate Transparency Act, which passed last month, calls for the United States to set up a UBO register as well, but it will be made available only to law enforcement.

Thom Townsend, the executive director of OpenOwnership, an NGO that advocates for transparency in beneficial ownership data, describes Luxembourg’s register as “marginally better than average,” with limited utility because it can only be searched by company, rather than by owner.

The accuracy of the data submitted is also a problem. Luxembourg is not alone in having gaps in its register. A study on the U.K.’s Companies House register, which is praised for its public and cost-free access, found that children under two appeared as UBOs of 4,000 companies. Another 400,000 companies had yet to declare or could not say who their beneficial owner was….”

Read on to find answers to frequently asked questions about this complex topic.
https://www.occrp.org/en/openlux/frequently-asked-questions
https://www.taxjustice.net/2020/06/03/the-state-of-play-of-beneficial-ownership-registration-in-2020/

#49 jess on 02.16.21 at 5:30 pm

Driving the global shift towards transparency over who owns and controls companies.
70% of corruption cases involve the use of anonymous companies.
108 countries committed to disclosing beneficial ownership.
7 million beneficial owners from 170 jurisdictions in the global register.
To date, over USD 1 billion has been recovered by governments using beneficial ownership data.

https://www.openownership.org/

#50 Dave on 02.16.21 at 5:31 pm

It’s so sad to see all those homeless doggies. I hope they all get adopted!

#51 Felix on 02.16.21 at 5:32 pm

Mr Turner, we wholeheartedly agree. This is truly a bizarre bubble.

No puppy is remotely worth three grand, nor even three cents.

#52 AM in MN on 02.16.21 at 5:32 pm

#25 JSS on 02.16.21 at 3:54 pm

#18 Truth on 02.16.21 at 3:29 pm
How much is heaps?

———————————–

It’s more than you really need to live on, don’t need to make more.

Like so many who sold the house they owned for 30-40 years and moved to a rental or out of the city to retire. Many put it in low risk funds, which have now made even more.

Sell your house for $1M or more (tax free) and live off $4k/month + some travel, you don’t need to watch your portfolio.

#53 Penny Henny on 02.16.21 at 5:33 pm

#122 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 12:51 am
#175 Penny Henny on 02.15.21 at 9:34 am
Hey Garth can you please tell Nonplussed to shut up.

Thank you.

Or maybe he can start his own blog.

—————————

What did I ever do to you?

/////////////////

You go on and on and on and on and on.
And half the time you don’t even know what you are talking about, just theorizing.
One mouth, two ears. It applies to blogs too.

#54 Hans on 02.16.21 at 5:35 pm

Markets are at nominal highs… how do they look when it’s inflation adjusted? I’ve always struggled with the comparison to inflation adjusted currency because even inflation is a manipulated statistic. I’m thinking markets go up over time because fiat currency is being devalued over time… but I’m definitely not an expert.

#55 Don Guillermo on 02.16.21 at 5:36 pm

#37 Reximus on 02.16.21 at 4:37 pm
this country is one giant forest…how on earth is there a lumber shortage? can there be so much demand that the industry cant keep up, or is production way down
***************************************
Last spring (after de-snowbirding) we decided to rebuild a carport. Even back then the contractor was complaining about a pandemic lumber shortage. As I was going over build details with him I noticed my wife disappear into the house. I thought it was a bit odd as she usually likes to be involved in the details. She had gone inside to load up on some WEF shares. She’s still holding.

#56 Flanneur on 02.16.21 at 5:43 pm

Baby Sammy on the way. Was $3500. Next door just got a golden for 3k.

#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm

Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.

The end of an era – too risky!

#58 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 5:45 pm

Man if the IMF is warning T2 and co. about blank cheque spending, you know it’s bad. The IMF probably does not want to be a lender of last resort to the both a dangerous housing bubble and insane debt.

Not gonna post the entire article:

“IMF says Canada must justify post-pandemic stimulus spending, needs clearer fiscal anchor”

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-says-canada-must-justify-180654843.html

#59 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 5:58 pm

#47 Millennial 1%er on 02.16.21 at 5:25 pm

I’ve been trying to hold 3% in crypto because of my genuine interest but it’s been proving difficult, it keeps on climbing to 5%, then 10%

———

When something has untethered potential, recoup your initial investment and let the rest run to infinity and beyond- don’t try to constrain it.

If you’re lucky, you’ll hit a number of such unicorns in your investing journey… and when it happens, step out of the way and enjoy the show.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 5:58 pm

#34 Spiltbongwater on 02.16.21 at 4:10 pm
My wife is getting house hungry. We offered on a North Delta rancher last week. Assessment is $880,000 give or take. We offered over asking of $970,000. House sold with 28 offers for $1,230,000
————–
North Delta rancher, eh?
Does not surprise me.
In our neck of the woods, not too far away, there are absolutely no listings.
One came out two weeks ago.
Sold in two days.
Tempted to sell and ride into the sunshine.

#61 cramar on 02.16.21 at 6:01 pm

Looking at a 90-year chart of the S&P sure gives you perspective. That is even longer that Garth has been alive! (Me too!) The “Big Picture” is enlightening. Tells me two things:

A) Over 90 years the market has gone up over the long term. Good unless you bought at one of the peaks and then had to wait a decade or more for the investment to return to what you paid for it. But not so bad if you are investing for future decades with dividend-paying stocks. You still get decent returns while waiting for capital appreciation.

B) Based on the last 90-years, the recent leg up from 2008 has not had any meaningful correction, both in level and time. In fact it looks ominous. Based on history it looks like the rise should end soon—maybe tomorrow, maybe within a year, but history says it will end. This leg up is not different in that gravity always wins. It looks like the S&P, when it drops will find support at around 2,300-2,400, if I’m reading this small chart correctly. And last 3-8 years. That is the best case.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results!

Just saying!

#62 Lieutenant Commander Data on 02.16.21 at 6:01 pm

#83 Diharv on 02.13.21 at 9:49 pm
———————————————————-
#2 Lieutenant Commander Data on 02.13.21 at 9:51 am
Anyone see the news about Covid risk of death being 3.5 times of the flu?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7633055/covid-19-death-influenza/
———————————————————-
Well Duh!!! Everyone has know the mortality of this thing is higher than the flu for almost a year now. Where have you been?

010001001011101101101

Diharv,

I believe you may have missed the intended point, fellow life form.

Canada is reporting 829,000 cases and 21,354 deaths today, for an effective reported Covid-19 death rate of apparently 2.58% (deaths/cases) – upon which all decisions, major spending and shutdowns appear to be based.

Flu death rate is reported to be about 0.1%, edging up to 0.2% – no one knows 100% really because all flu related data is estimated. No one ever counted as vigorously as has been the case with Covid-19 but it is generally accepted to be between 0.1% and 0.2%.

As such the death rate based on the numbers reported on the daily news would appear to be 25X that of the Flu.

However, here is new local Canadian data indicating that Covid-19 death rate is just 3.5X that of the Flu. This would clearly indicate that there are many uncounted Covid-19 cases, that if counted would bring the news reported death rate % down.

NY State and NY City general population immunity tests done back in April of 2020 would suggest that or every case confirmed with a tests, there were apparently 7 cases not confirmed or reported as counted cases. This would be VERY consistent with this latest Canadian 3.5x Flu death rate data, as 2.58% Covid-19 death rate based on reported numbers divided by 7 is 0.368, which would be nearly exactly 3.5x the 0.1% Flu death rate that is recognized and agreed upon.

When data points line up like this, well, it is quite exciting for me, as my name would suggest.

This is amazingly good news. I am not sure we are digesting this with the excitement it deserves. This news should put humans in incredibly good spirits.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 6:04 pm

#44 truefacts on 02.16.21 at 5:02 pm
Buffett keeps $150 billion set aside – and that keeps growing… He hasn’t bought big although some “mystery stock” purchase is supposed to be revealed soon.

Is he just an idiot or concerned about the ever increasing markets? Garth?
—————–
Buffett is a market maker.
He can make a 180 degree in a second.
Follow him at your peril.

#64 TurnerNation on 02.16.21 at 6:06 pm

Q1…are we going full military lockdown – Berlin Wall style?
(Btw New CAMPS currently are being built at Ontario Place/Exhibition in Toronto – unknown at this time are they for the homeless…or us?)

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2021/02/15/military-deploys-recon-teams-to-border-as-feds-prepare-border-testing-sites-2/#.YCxOzjKSm00
“OTTAWA — The Canadian Armed Forces is deploying reconnaissance teams to the border as the federal government prepares to enlist the military’s help in establishing COVID-19 screening centres for travellers.”

— Land grab – the spoils of war is always LAND. This is WW3. What do you think will next happen?

92% of NYC restaurants could not afford December rent, survey reveal. (abc7ny.com)

— The Globalists are clear on our future. New System, March 2020 was the rollout.
It’s about control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements/Travel.

“Rich countries should only eat synthetic beef, says Bill Gates
The billionaire philanthropist made the demand while advertising his new book on how to avoid a climate disaster.”

New York times – How to Develop an appetite for insects – A change in the menu

Washington Pot – Would you eat insects to save the planet? – Why you can, will, and should probably eat bugs

CNN – The food that can feed and maybe save the world: bugs – Food of the future: bugs

#65 S.Bby on 02.16.21 at 6:09 pm

#40 Baron

Yes and Yes.

#66 MF on 02.16.21 at 6:15 pm

Millennial 1%er on 02.16.21 at 5:25

…and eventually down to .1% of your portfolio.

I get the attraction but let’s not forget how big of a bubble btc and the rest of them are in. Long btc = most crowded trade there is right now. Millions of novices sitting at home during lockdown using their “stimulus” to play with on their Robbinhood or whatever app.

Once hot weather, or these lockdowns end and people have to go back to work this pig is done.

Oh yeah, all the “mainstreamers” pumping crypto and btc are using it to pump and dump for their own gain. Biggest joke there is (other than Canadian real estate that is).

MF

#67 1255 on 02.16.21 at 6:16 pm

It has nothing to do with a balanced portfolio and everything to do with giving away free money to everyone. What did you think would happen?

I mean pumping in even more money than what was lost in wages. Ridiculous!!!

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 6:18 pm

#49 jess on 02.16.21 at 5:30 pm
Driving the global shift towards transparency over who owns and controls companies.
70% of corruption cases involve the use of anonymous companies.
108 countries committed to disclosing beneficial ownership.
7 million beneficial owners from 170 jurisdictions in the global register.
To date, over USD 1 billion has been recovered by governments using beneficial ownership data.

https://www.openownership.org/
————–
Good for bringing this important subject up.
It seems the legislation to investigate and prosecute is there.
Now it’s just a matter of employing the resources to flush these dogs out of their hiding places.

#69 David Prokop on 02.16.21 at 6:21 pm

Everything is going up, I mean everything and the governments / central banks see no inflation. A miracle!

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 6:21 pm

#51
apologize to all dog lovers here.
Meant “flushing out the jackals”

#71 crossbordershopper on 02.16.21 at 6:25 pm

well, how does a brand new home in Michigan, two hours outside of windsor cost $300K for a 2000 sq house.? thats with the land etc. well, i guess even with the lot costs, Canadian costs are way too high and the profit that developers and builders, and bankers, and realtors etc make as you can see are very high.
on top of that, canadians cant deduct mortgage interest so honestly I have no idea why someone would pay a million cdn for a home in brampton. with after tax dollars. I guess Canadians like to work why else would they work for free effectively.

#72 Humbled & Broke on 02.16.21 at 6:31 pm

The Fed has a “financial air compressor” and they will use it blow the next ginormous bubble. They will blow up that overpatched economy tire until it stretches to a clossal bursting. Money printing digital currency costs near zero to the issuer, but dilutes all previous specie held by the saver. We are entering ZMT or zimbabwe economic theory. 25 per cent of all new USA dollars since a hundred years past have been printed only in the last 18 months. Every scam has the same back bone but is draped in new skins. This one is no different, but the outer appearance. Legal fraud by the Siqneuer (king, court, or bank) is a long tradition. USA has three prior bankruptcies, with failure of colony script, civil war green backs, and a bank holiday in 1933. This makes the current round four scam a charm. It should all work out swell given the prior money printing track record. Canada and dome provinces also went bankrupt in the Depression, we were just more polite about it. Russia just paid of its last bond note payment to the Euro bankers, which was loaned out in 1917. The Russki’s don’t accept greenbacks anymore, just gold or other tangible “old school” commodities. Likewise for your next house mortgage expect a 100 year repayment term if trends persist. Compound interest is the greatest invention made by humans to date. Closest thing to free energy. Well mostly your tax paying energy. Gotta love those clever bankers.

#73 Faron on 02.16.21 at 6:42 pm

#37 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:36 pm
#27 Faron

I’d listen to Stone, Soggy Shorts, Sail Away or, especially, Garth (apologies for missing others here) on this matter before me. The worry I would have in a portfolio like yours is that EARK may seem diversified because it’s an ETF, but it’s loaded with a lot of like-sentiment companies. This would imply that if some fear came into one of the names it might take them all down with it. That’s not what you want in an investment. But, you also gain more if you risk more which is why a little exposure isn’t a bad idea.

I’ll leave it to Stone to comment on XGRO. It’s performance over time isn’t great, but I haven’t looked into why that is given the strong equity weighting.

#74 Drinking on 02.16.21 at 6:45 pm

Lumber prices are insane; I am tempted to buy my own Honda Saw Mill; works well, my friend had one in the Shuswap region and we cut a heck of alot of 2×4, 6, and 8, let them dry for a year in a drying shed and he built his beautiful cabin out of it.

Long term investor, but cash on the side to buy those bargains, not now, but in the future will help out as long as one does or puts in effort to educate themselves in those fields; if not, then do not bother!
Stay safe and invest accordingly!

#75 Drill Baby Drill on 02.16.21 at 6:49 pm

#51 Felix
I love my cat skin coat.

#76 Faron on 02.16.21 at 6:49 pm

#36 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:25 pm

#17 Stone

I’ll add that it’s awesome that you are investing and seeking advice from somewhere other than the YOLO crowd. And investing with commission free trading is a win for your port as long as you can keep the trigger finger cool. I, personally, struggle with that and have put the bulk of my savings into WS Invest.

#77 Darren on 02.16.21 at 6:50 pm

Garth – would love to get your thoughts on the rising house prices in GTA suburbs and will they continue to rise into the mid-summer, or is there a realistic cooling / drop in prices due to market changes or a 3rd covid wave over the next couple of months? Thanks you –

#78 S.Bby on 02.16.21 at 7:04 pm

#34 Spiltbongwater

You should have topped the offer. It will be worth 2 million by next year.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 7:07 pm

@#57 IHCTD9
“I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle.”

+++

Yep Aunt Jemima went to that great Cancel Culture rainbow in the sky…..Right after Uncle Ben….

I wonder when black berries will be renamed….

#80 Drinking on 02.16.21 at 7:08 pm

#33 Dolce Vita

You care, most of us appreciate it, I read this morning that there is a another variant, a Nigerian one now???? Corona/Covid is exactly what it is, just like the flu it will always mutate.

We must protect the vulnerable the best we can but need to move on with life. Covid deaths, not to mention the horrific opioids/alcoholic, abuse, as well as other issues that we are all to aware of, mostly associated with people that can/could no longer cope is the real tragedy. This is not working! Just awful and insane decisions of so called leaders and politics!!!!

#81 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:24 pm

Well at least Fox is finally covering it. Other than them the MSM seems strangely silent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpoXqEbS7BQ&feature=emb_logo

To summarize;

Both California and Texas get about 20% of their electricity from wind. But, in the case of Texas when the wind stops blowing and the wind “turbines” freeze, you get rolling blackouts or brownouts, whatever you want to call them, and people start freezing to death or getting carbon monoxide poisoning. (The poor idiots are resorting to sitting in their running cars or burning charcoal to stay warm.)

In the case of California the blackouts happen when it is too windy, because if the wind speed is greater than 50 mph the windmills have to be bricked. They will overheat and catch on fire if they are not furled out of the wind and the brake applied.

Of course low wind speed is equally problematic.

Thus, barring some new miracle in battery technology, a fossil fuel free future is never going to happen. Wind and solar are great, we should use them to the extent we can because they do reduce CO2 emissions, but they will never be able to power our 24/7 electric system on their own.

Stock tip: Go long Generac (GNRC). Although that horse may have already left the barn. The chart looks like GameStop.

A feature of our “Green New Deal” future is that everyone that lives somewhere where it is at times either too cold or to hot to survive is going to need a backup generator and a 500 lb bottle of propane to run it. (The natural gas grid won’t be able to handle it if everyone has one. Sort of like how there would be no forests if everyone was heating with wood.)

PS for you wood heaters out there, just saw an article that said that only 8% of Britons have a wood stove or fireplace but they account for 3 times more particulate emissions than traffic:

http://www.tathasta.com/2021/02/wood-burning-at-home-now-biggest-cause.html

When designing your heat and power systems, it helps to consult engineers.

(Side note I am still optimistic about Gen IV nuclear.)

#82 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:29 pm

#7 I’m stupid on 02.16.21 at 2:59 pm
Well I do hvac in new houses. I have over 200 houses ready or almost ready for hvac yet I might be out of work. How is that possible you might ask. Well there’s a metal shortage. I’m small potatoes so if I can’t get metal it’s one thing but when DonPark can’t find metal there’s a problem.

If you don’t know who donpark is I tell you. Donpark is the largest sheet metal production company in Ontario maybe Canada. I get material from them and they don’t have any. So here we are.

————————————-

Innovate. Yes that was sarcasm.

#83 As a feller ... on 02.16.21 at 7:33 pm

leaning agin a russell fence once told me … you can get a pup from the place up the road from me, where the plywood sign is, fer 50 bucks. But I think they are a little overpriced …

#84 Sydneysider on 02.16.21 at 7:41 pm

The UK papers have carried quite a number of “dognapping” stories lately. A large litter of puppies might be worth $70K in today’s market, so people have been stealing dogs for breeding (e.g. when their “owners” are out walking them) or perhaps to sell immediately as “pets”.

#85 AACI Homedog on 02.16.21 at 7:47 pm

Thanks, Garth ! With about 6% cash yet to re-deploy, I am ready, with my truck-bed empty !

#86 Russ on 02.16.21 at 7:48 pm

JSS on 02.16.21 at 3:54 pm
#18 Truth on 02.16.21 at 3:29 pm
How much is heaps?


I believe a “heap” is equal to the greater of the sum of two hands worth.

Any PhD’s in mathematics out there, if you can please confirm thanks
============

I consider a heap to be a pile no higher than the angle of repose for the material.

Personally, I’ve never had a large heap o’ cash in front of me. It just sits there on paper.

#87 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:48 pm

#53 Penny Henny on 02.16.21 at 5:33 pm
#122 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 12:51 am
#175 Penny Henny on 02.15.21 at 9:34 am
Hey Garth can you please tell Nonplussed to shut up.

Thank you.

Or maybe he can start his own blog.

—————————

What did I ever do to you?

/////////////////

You go on and on and on and on and on.
And half the time you don’t even know what you are talking about, just theorizing.
One mouth, two ears. It applies to blogs too.

———————————————

My mouse has a scroll wheel right in the middle of the left and right click buttons. And as for the accusation, well, I have a lot of company. Why not single out TurnerNation? Falon? Dolce Vita? Felix is about the only commenter who is consistently brief. Oh and that cottagers Karen.

Me thinks it is not how long it takes me to say something you don’t like, but what I say. Yet you must be reading it, or you wouldn’t be trying to have me “cancelled”. Your welcome.

Anyway get a mouse with a scroll wheel and leave me alone.

#88 SSZ on 02.16.21 at 7:49 pm

Stocks today are not in a bubble. However, they are not driven by fundamentals either. They are driven by capitals that chase yield (hint-negative interest rate in Europe) and chase safety (hint-upcoming government bond disasters). The rise (although choppy) will only accelerate with the looming monetary/political crisis. Dow 65K here we come!

#89 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 8:01 pm

#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm
Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.

The end of an era – too risky!

——————————

There was an actual “Ant Jemima” (although that wasn’t her real name) who worked as a promoter for said product. Her descendants are actually kind of miffed she got dropped.

#90 mark on 02.16.21 at 8:01 pm

We are clearly in a bubble, when more and more say were in for a great year, time to take profits.
When it pops it’s going to be nasty, at least 50% hair cut. Don’t be too gready…

#91 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 8:02 pm

*Aunt

#92 Dr V on 02.16.21 at 8:02 pm

36 CLM

” Not once did I stop contributing or withdraw from WS Invest since I started last year.”

A year?

“Modest balance is approximately $3k with a $50
weekly deposit.”

Modest? many of us on this blog can “lose” twice that
in a few hours and gain it back thrice the next day. This is a long game for you. Just stick with WS for the next
10 years. keep in TFSA if you have room. Work on your
career.

just my opinion – I’m not a pro.

#93 I’m stupid on 02.16.21 at 8:14 pm

82 Nonplused

I guess I could use invisible sheet metal, maybe I can charge more. Lol

#94 IVoteIndependent on 02.16.21 at 8:17 pm

Musk has had some great launches lately….
…..and several of them have been followed by spectacular crashes!

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.16.21 at 8:22 pm

#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm
Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.
————-
There is NO Maple Syrup in Aunt Jemima.
INGREDIENTS: CORN SYRUP, HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP, WATER, CELLULOSE GUM, CARAMEL COLOR, SALT, NATURAL AND ARTIFICIAL FLAVOR, SODIUM BENZOATE AND SORBIC ACID (PRESERVATIVES), SODIUM HEXAMETAPHOSPHATE.

I buy genuine Canadian Organic Maple Syrup at Costco.

#96 The West on 02.16.21 at 8:33 pm

Your graph is good. As long as world faith in monopoly money continues, so will the ponzi scheme. Inflation is going to set on quickly, more quickly than people see coming.

#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

#81 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:24 pm
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I never understood the appeal of Wind power, eyeballing the set up not looking at the maths looks super temperamental and inefficient. Maintenance must also cut into whatever gains, hmm moving mechanical contrivances, outdoors.

Solar as an auxiliary source or bonus does have merit, certainly not as a grid replacement – unless you can live on 1-2kW like it’s 1900. Roughly the sun blasts out 1kW/m2, solar panels though getting better every year are not even close to those figures. Getting close to 50% under ideal conditions, line of sight (the sun changes angle remember), clean glass, etc. Then figure an additional 5-10% losses in wiring, inverter, battery etc. Average roof array is probably capable of 6kW at peak sun, ideal conditions of course not all day, everyday.

If could figure out a method to store electrical power in another way than chemical that would be a game changer.

Any utility their biggest operational concern is riding the demand without overshooting or falling too out of tolerance and grid collapse. Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it. Have to anticipate the demand which is cyclical and seasonable, divert the lake faster or let less pass.

#98 DON on 02.16.21 at 8:43 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 7:07 pm
@#57 IHCTD9
“I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle.”

+++

Yep Aunt Jemima went to that great Cancel Culture rainbow in the sky…..Right after Uncle Ben….

I wonder when black berries will be renamed….

*************

Whaddabout the Green Giant…

#99 Drinking on 02.16.21 at 8:47 pm

Hmm, I wonder if these companies that sell these products are listed? Could make a fast buck, lol!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/14067197/full-face-hot-wax-tiktok-videos-spark-warning-risk-suffocation-viral-trend/

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:47 pm

@#81 Nonplused
“Thus, barring some new miracle in battery technology, a fossil fuel free future is never going to happen.”

+++++

Simple, clean, non nuclear.
Geothermal.
If you are lucky enough to live in Greenland or near hotsprings its cheaper.
But if you drill deep enough you can get water hot enough to either provide heat or steam for electrical turbines.
There is a deep coal mine in Nova Scotia that was flooded decades ago to smother the fires
They now use the warm water from the old mines to reheat water for warehouses in an industrial park.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255798282_Clean_Energy_from_Abandoned_Mines_at_Springhill_Nova_Scotia

Geothermal. Unlimited and beneath your feet.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:57 pm

@#64 TurnerNation
“CNN – The food that can feed and maybe save the world: bugs – Food of the future: bugs”

++++
Define “bug”

If something annoys me…then… technically ……its…a…bug.

That opens up a “can of worms”……

#102 Stone on 02.16.21 at 8:58 pm

#73 Faron on 02.16.21 at 6:42 pm
#37 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:36 pm
#27 Faron

I’d listen to Stone, Soggy Shorts, Sail Away or, especially, Garth (apologies for missing others here) on this matter before me. The worry I would have in a portfolio like yours is that EARK may seem diversified because it’s an ETF, but it’s loaded with a lot of like-sentiment companies. This would imply that if some fear came into one of the names it might take them all down with it. That’s not what you want in an investment. But, you also gain more if you risk more which is why a little exposure isn’t a bad idea.

I’ll leave it to Stone to comment on XGRO. It’s performance over time isn’t great, but I haven’t looked into why that is given the strong equity weighting.

———

I’ll add my 2 cents. XGRO or XBAL or their cousins at the other ETF companies were fine as long as interest rates on bonds were going down.

Well, that party is over in an overcooked way since March of 2020 because interest rates on bonds are now slowly going back up. The worst part is that the fixed income component of these all in one ETFs are aggregate bonds. That means they act like they hold mainly mid term bonds. As interest rates rise, the capital component of those bonds lose value. When 20% or 40% of your portfolio is made up of that, well, Ouch!

What is needed now are short term bonds to soften the blow as bond rates rise (yes, you still need some bonds). Also, there is no pref share component in these all in one ETFs. That’s what’s wrong with all in one ETFs. They have a certain mandate and they aren’t adapting to current and future circumstances.

My take. Don’t do all in one ETFs (specifically those who include both an equity and fixed income component) unless they change their investing mandate. Instead, buy individual ETFs and build your own portfolio.

VSB 20%
ZPR/DXP 20%
VCN 20%
VUN 20%
XEF 16%
XEC 4%

The above has a return of almost 6% ytd. As long as bond rates rise, I don’t see making adjustments. I’m not partial to the ETFs above so if you prefer their equivalent at another ETF company, do that instead. MERs are ok so you keep your expenses down. My own portfolio is a little riskier than the above which accounts for a slightly higher return at 6.44% ytd. Regardless of the higher risk, I sleep very well and I feel no temptation to go anywhere near the sell button.

If that’s too much, then just do 80% XGRO and 20% ZPR/DXP. Return is just above 5% ytd. Just remember though, long term, that difference in return is meaningful.

Most importantly, talk to an impartial investment advisor (actually, interview multiple) and don’t take advice from anonymous trolls online.

#103 the jaguar on 02.16.21 at 9:06 pm

The photo is soul crushing…

#104 Uncle Charlie on 02.16.21 at 9:14 pm

#36 Classical Liberal Millennial

I’m someone in a very similar position to you, except without the pension, and quite a bit older.

I would keep it simple, until you have something more substantial to work with. Personally, I have just one balanced ETF (XBAL). I didn’t see any point in buying multiple ETF’s based on the tiny amount of money I have. (I used to have it in a balanced Tangerine fund, but after opening an account with Questrade it seemed to make more sense to move it there).

Just my 2 cents, from a guy that has no business being on a blog like this. :)

#105 Bert on 02.16.21 at 9:15 pm

I think the real downside risk is in the re opening sectors (ie financials, cyclicals, commodities, energy, transports, emerging markets, etc.). Copper, oil and other commodities have more than doubled from the lows. Oil is already >$60. There is significant crowding in this part of the market. The whole world thinks USD is going lower along with bonds.

#106 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 9:32 pm

#73 Faron on 02.16.21 at 6:42 pm
#37 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:36 pm
#27 Faron

————-

I’d listen to Stone, Soggy Shorts, Sail Away or, especially, Garth (apologies for missing others here) on this matter before me. The worry I would have in a portfolio like yours is that EARK may seem diversified because it’s an ETF, but it’s loaded with a lot of like-sentiment companies.

————-

Sure, I’ll weigh in.

With EARK, my concern would be the amount of money flowing in due to their past successes. Reversion to the mean is a big problem for sector ETFs, because when they do well, it’s noticed, and they get massive influxes of cash. It’s not possible to leverage the same opportunities to the same benefit just by throwing 3x the $ at it.

XEQT is just dumb. It holds four ETFs and charges you to do it. Put 25% into each of the individual ETFs it holds and hold them yourself. The ETFs themselves are legit: ITOT/XIC/XEF/IEMG.

TEC: buy in at all-time high? Hmmm… it might continue up, but history suggests otherwise.

Maybe just hold everything you have since your outlay so far is small (yes, it feels bigger to you, but it’s small), and aim for an actual balanced portfolio going forward. The reality is that a DB pension should provide each $1M or more at retirement if you both hang on and stay together, so the extra is essentially gravy (unless you want to conquer the world).

#107 Nasty Nate on 02.16.21 at 9:38 pm

I like reminding people that the Japanese bubble of 1989 was the greatest bubble the world has ever seen. At the peak the Nikkei was trading at a PE ratio of 65x earnings!!!

If you safely assume next year earnings on S&P are $200 (very reasonable estimate) then for the S&P to reach a PE ratio of 65…the index would climb to 13,000!!! Insane right!?!

That won’t happen…but we have a lot of runway! This bull market will only be turning 1 year old next month. By the end of thus market cycle I could see the S$P double from here to 8000. Seems crazy doesn’t it? Just watch…

#108 Drinking on 02.16.21 at 9:40 pm

To all the bakers out there or those who just enjoy butter; found this story on NP; of course this would never be published on CBC, interesting read!

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/is-your-butter-harder-than-usual-a-common-feed-ingredient-could-have-something-to-do-with-it

Yes Garth, this could be regarded as an investment decision.

#109 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 9:50 pm

Hey Stone, I’ve been wondering:

What’s your ytd return?

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 10:06 pm

@#98 DON
“Whaddabout the Green Giant…”

++++

Ho Ho Ho

(Is that even politically correct in our Cancel Culture times?)

#111 VStrom Rider on 02.16.21 at 10:08 pm

Why do I need preferreds if I have 80% of my money in stocks and the other 20% in bonds (all in ETFs)? If I wanted more stability (eg when I get closer to retirement), couldn’t I get that by just increasing the bond portion of my portfolio?

#112 DON on 02.16.21 at 10:31 pm

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:47 pm
@#81 Nonplused
“Thus, barring some new miracle in battery technology, a fossil fuel free future is never going to happen.”

+++++

Simple, clean, non nuclear.
Geothermal.
If you are lucky enough to live in Greenland or near hotsprings its cheaper.
But if you drill deep enough you can get water hot enough to either provide heat or steam for electrical turbines.
There is a deep coal mine in Nova Scotia that was flooded decades ago to smother the fires
They now use the warm water from the old mines to reheat water for warehouses in an industrial park.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255798282_Clean_Energy_from_Abandoned_Mines_at_Springhill_Nova_Scotia

Geothermal. Unlimited and beneath your feet.

**********

There is a company in Sask doing some drilling for geothermal. Windmills on the west coast, throw in some tidal power and top off with geothermal.

#113 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 10:44 pm

#89 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 8:01 pm

There was an actual “Ant Jemima” (although that wasn’t her real name) who worked as a promoter for said product. Her descendants are actually kind of miffed she got dropped.
— ————

The bottle just doesn’t look as welcoming and cheery without ‘ol Auntie J’s smiling face on it. There goes a little piece of my childhood… :(

Now, I might have to try some of that fancy “genuine organic maple syrup” that Ponzie the “syrup snob” gets at Costco.

#114 kommykim on 02.16.21 at 11:14 pm

RE: Before mentioning some of those reason why, check this chart out. It’s the stock market (the S&P 500) over the last 90 years.

========================================

I’ve always thought that it was better to look at long term indexes on a logarithmic scale instead of a linear one.

Log: https://i.imgur.com/yaESqhY.png
Lin: https://i.imgur.com/kl2JdCY.png

#115 Comments! on 02.16.21 at 11:18 pm

This stock market is not forward thinking. The ridiculous valuations going from April onward were pricing in a massive recovery by Q3, never happened. Then Q4, never happened. Then Q1 and Q2 of this year, definitely not happening. Up to 55% of American small business is never coming back with airlines and hospitality wiped out with real double digit worldwide unemployment so wave 2021 and probably all of 2022 bye bye as well.

The stock market is a distorted casino compliments of central banks. It’s totally fine to admit it.

#116 VicPaul on 02.16.21 at 11:40 pm

#10 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 3:03 pm
I moved from a robo-advisor (WS Invest) to a self-directed platform (WS Trade) today. I’ve allocated 50% of my very modest balance to XEQT, 25% to EARK, and 25% to TEC. I plan to set it and forget it for a long time.

Please critique my choices, blog dogs!! As an FYI, my spouse and I both have DB pensions. If that makes any difference.

*********

I hold both XEQT (all-in-one) and TEC…both have been solid performers (diversified – notwithstanding US-heavy TEC being a tech sector focus). I also hold XIT for the limited but impressive Maple tech sector (Shopify, Constellation and uh…).

I’m a teacher – so yeah, the DB pension is gonna make a difference.

M57BC

#117 Nonplused, PhD on 02.16.21 at 11:43 pm

#86 Russ on 02.16.21 at 7:48 pm
JSS on 02.16.21 at 3:54 pm
#18 Truth on 02.16.21 at 3:29 pm
How much is heaps?


I believe a “heap” is equal to the greater of the sum of two hands worth.

Any PhD’s in mathematics out there, if you can please confirm thanks

———————————

A “heap” generally requires two flushes.

#118 Capt. Serious on 02.16.21 at 11:45 pm

Meb Faber had a good series of charts on TWTR and my conclusion is that things are very bubbly. Can’t time the beast so I will not bother, but there could be choppy seas ahead. If we get 10 year returns approaching 7% from here I would be extremely happy, but I’m not terribly optimistic. The real test will be for people to stay invested when a bad run of years hits again. That is the trick to the long run thing – the long run can be very long indeed.

#119 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 11:50 pm

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:47 pm

“Simple, clean, non nuclear.
Geothermal.”

Where it works I am in favor of geothermal also. I don’t know why but many people seem to think I am against all the alternative energy sources. I am not. Solar, for example, mates well with air conditioning, thus cutting CO2 emissions. But it can’t heat your house at night. (Some types of solar can, but they aren’t electric.)

My overriding point is that we have to be realistic about what these alternatives can and can’t do.

#120 Faron on 02.16.21 at 11:50 pm

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:57 pm

@#64 TurnerNation

Does that mean TurnerNation is going on the menu?

#121 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 11:54 pm

#93 I’m stupid on 02.16.21 at 8:14 pm
82 Nonplused

I guess I could use invisible sheet metal, maybe I can charge more. Lol

——————————

At the rate things are going our children will live in tee pees and the central heat will be a fire pit in the middle. And then yes, you will be out of a job. Unless you can take up installing solar panels on the tee pees to keep the cell phones charged.

#122 David Greene on 02.17.21 at 12:20 am

Well, I read this earlier and wasn’t going to post it. But since Nonplused so often likes to cherry pick his data while he drones on and on about how useless renewables are:

From
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

Excerpt 1:
So while having Texas’ full wind-generating capacity online would help, the problems with meeting demand appear to lie elsewhere. An ERCOT [the Electric Reliability Council of Texas] director told Bloomberg that problems were widespread across generating sources, including coal, natural gas, and even nuclear plants.

Excerpt 2:
While some early reports indicated that frozen wind turbines were causing significant shortfalls, 30GW is roughly equal to the entire state’s wind capacity if every turbine is producing all the power it’s rated for. Since wind in Texas generally tends to produce less during winter, there’s no way that the grid operators would have planned for getting 30GW from wind generation; in fact, a chart at ERCOT indicates that wind is producing significantly more than forecast.

Ain’t it funny how his eyes never manage to see this content?

#81 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:24 pm

Well at least Fox is finally covering it. Other than them the MSM seems strangely silent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpoXqEbS7BQ&feature=emb_logo

To summarize;

Both California and Texas get about 20% of their electricity from wind. But, in the case of Texas when the wind stops blowing and the wind “turbines” freeze, you get rolling blackouts or brownouts, whatever you want to call them, and people start freezing to death or getting carbon monoxide poisoning. (The poor idiots are resorting to sitting in their running cars or burning charcoal to stay warm.)

In the case of California the blackouts happen when it is too windy, because if the wind speed is greater than 50 mph the windmills have to be bricked. They will overheat and catch on fire if they are not furled out of the wind and the brake applied.

Of course low wind speed is equally problematic.

Thus, barring some new miracle in battery technology, a fossil fuel free future is never going to happen. Wind and solar are great, we should use them to the extent we can because they do reduce CO2 emissions, but they will never be able to power our 24/7 electric system on their own.

Stock tip: Go long Generac (GNRC). Although that horse may have already left the barn. The chart looks like GameStop.

A feature of our “Green New Deal” future is that everyone that lives somewhere where it is at times either too cold or to hot to survive is going to need a backup generator and a 500 lb bottle of propane to run it. (The natural gas grid won’t be able to handle it if everyone has one. Sort of like how there would be no forests if everyone was heating with wood.)

PS for you wood heaters out there, just saw an article that said that only 8% of Britons have a wood stove or fireplace but they account for 3 times more particulate emissions than traffic:

http://www.tathasta.com/2021/02/wood-burning-at-home-now-biggest-cause.html

When designing your heat and power systems, it helps to consult engineers.

(Side note I am still optimistic about Gen IV nuclear.)

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 12:36 am

@#107 nasty Nate
“I like reminding people that the Japanese bubble of 1989 was the greatest bubble the world has ever seen. At the peak the Nikkei was trading at a PE ratio of 65x earnings!!!”

+++++
True enough.

I also seem to recall in 1989 that the price of real ( real?) estate in Japan was the most expensive on the planet.
The land the Emperors Palace in Tokyo occupied was valued, per sq. ft., at more than the entire State of California….and then …..pop.

#124 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 1:25 am

#81 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:24 pm
—————————————————————
Sounds like the engineers spec’d the wind turbines for the wrong peak cold temperature.

Some of their natural gas equipment is freezing up as well. Plus one of their nuclear reactors is down. Again, sounds like they spec’d the wrong peak operating conditions.

#125 willworkforpickles on 02.17.21 at 1:32 am

What brought us to the cursed times were in?
Debt!
Do you break the curse on society with more of what’s caused the steady increase of society’s ills?
Apparently so as government see’s no other way out.
What good will come of an ever increasing death spiral toward debt oblivion ?
The curse of runaway debt has bred bad leadership choices to deal with it only to intensify curses already befallen us.
Bad leadership ties into the worsening effect debt is creating hand in glove.
Bad policy from bad leadership until debt creation reaches the point of no return each feeding off each other taking an oblivious society down with it.
The curse only continues to worsen at this stage. There is no going back.

#126 capulene on 02.17.21 at 1:35 am

Garth,
trying to figure out if I qualify…….how much money do you consider “heaps”?

#127 SoggyShorts on 02.17.21 at 3:02 am

#73 Faron on 02.16.21 at 6:42 pm
#37 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.16.21 at 4:36 pm
#27 Faron

I’d listen to Stone, Soggy Shorts, Sail Away or, especially, Garth (apologies for missing others here) on this matter before me.

***********************
I think what the others have said makes sense. While I do think that all-in-ones are a great entry-level for new investors I don’t feel they are right for you.

You are on here often enough that you are clearly into it and are probably willing to spend the time and moderate amount of effort that it takes to deconstruct those prepackaged ETFs into their components for less as Sail Away suggested.
My main issue with them is the excessive Canadian weighting and lack of USD exposure.

With the PF that you’ve moved to, I’m not loving the lack of bonds or really anything that moves counter to the rest.
I was all equity in 2019 which was sweet, and I was still in it in 2020 which sucked hard.
The worst part was a tie between seeing my net worth drop by a third and not having anything that I could sell at a profit in order to buy everything that was on sale.
I still believe in 80/20 over 60/40 but I wouldn’t go 100/0 again.
If your whole PF always moves in the same direction at the same time, how can you sell high and buy low?

Full disclosure: I’m now only in 4 ETFS
27% VOO (S&P 500 in USD)
13% XIU (some maple for home bias)
40% ZSP (S&P 500)
20% HTB (7-10y US treasury bonds)

I used to have 13% in exNA developed and 7% in emerging markets along with 10% in REITs, but none of them move meaningfully different than VOO.

I like the simplicity of my current PF. It cuts out the FOMO and is really easy to rebalance.

I’m just a FIRE guy though who only has 26 months of DIY investing under my belt with no financial background. So while it’s nice that Faron included me in the list, I’m not actually qualified or anything.

#128 Faron on 02.17.21 at 3:39 am

#81 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 7:24 pm

…from wind. But, in the case of Texas when the wind stops blowing and the wind “turbines” freeze…

The wind turbines were producing more than their forecast output during the freeze. Fox is happy to shill for big O+G (buddy buddy with the Koch bros and all).

The real failure here was freeze-up of O+G + coal infrastructure from wellhead to thermal plant on top of a grid designed to be maximally fragile because it optimizes the pricing for middle men. Just like what happened in 2011 when there was much much less wind on the grid. Fact is that, if the grid was supplied with 100% O+G+coal (and nuke) it would have done worse in this scenario as coastal wind power was able to put some potential on the grid.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

At this point your misinformation has to be seen as willful blindness if not outright lies. Or you are Tucker Carlson (Who Fox defended in a recent lawsuit by claiming that “no reasonable person would see his commentary as fact-based reporting”).

#129 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 4:50 am

Everyone should physically handle “heaps” of physical money at one point in their life. Might help to make it a little more real and curb the instinct to take on a million dollar mortgage if it seemed like something more than eye-glazing numbers on a screen. Maybe not. Doesn’t seem like there’s anything people can’t rationalize to themselves anymore.

Spent many years moving money around the world from one currency to another via every conceivable method. At one point the cheapest way to move large sums was by withdrawing physical AED cash from my UAE bank to a local currency exchange to send electronically to my foreign bank in USD. AED is fixed to USD but there’s still a small spread so on numerous large transfers getting the best rate + dropping the transfer fee added up to many hundreds of dollars over the years.

Always felt like a gangster with a couple bundles of dirhams on the car seat. But it’s funny how one’s attitude to money changes subtly when it’s not just an abstract.

https://ibb.co/nMpLqz4

A LOT of people are going to find out just how real the debt is for that “free” money they borrowed from TNLAB.

The lifelong toiling to repay will be real enough.

#130 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 6:50 am

I don’t think anyone is against alternative energy, like who doesn’t want to get rid of fossil fuels? The numbers have to make sense though. I checked into the Ontario EISO website yesterday. I saw only 2% of our energy is being produced by wind, solar, and biofuel. I can also see that although hydro cost are under 2 cents per/kwh, I am paying a global adjustment rate, in other words paying for the 2 percent of production at a rate of approximately an additional 9 cents p/kwh on my total usage. This is because the liberal party in Ontario rushed into contracts on alternative energy that simply did not make sense, and are now costing Ontarians a fortune on their hydro bill, not to mention also creating another insane debt load by subsidizing hydro rates. My last bill was subsidized 1/3 by $100 that will be passed on to future generations. Sad.

https://www.ieso.ca/power-data/this-hours-data

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Power-Data/Price-Overview/Global-Adjustment

#131 fancy_pants on 02.17.21 at 7:03 am

Lots of devils in the Canadian real estate cartel keeping that cauldron bubbling
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/libcqb/bullet_dodged_first_time_home_buyers_be_ware/

#132 fancy_pants on 02.17.21 at 7:11 am

Oh, and Dale is wrong… the economy has not been crippled by a nasty virus … it has been crippled by the regimes in power locking down healthy people.

#133 the Jaguar on 02.17.21 at 8:09 am

@#130 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 4:50 am++

BillyBob Corleone. How romantic!

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:20 am

@#124 JJ
” He just walked away with over 8 mill after taxes. That is a roi of over 40% per year.”
+++

Not bad.
The Realtors and revenue Canada must love him.

Was he the Landlord dealing with all the late rents, domestic disputes, grow ops, drive bys…..or did he hire a company to deal with it?

and, more importantly….are you the only child…?

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:25 am

@#130 BillyBob

https://ibb.co/nMpLqz4

Were those $1000 dirham notes?
Did you ‘money belt” them traveling from country to country?

#136 Cici on 02.17.21 at 8:27 am

#DolceVita

This one’s for you… beware of the big black cat:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/black-panther-spotted-southern-italy-090024816.html

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:32 am

They have replaced carpenters with a robot…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tech-3d-printed-house/printed-in-days-a-house-new-york-firm-takes-3d-printing-to-the-next-level-idUSKBN2AG2CA

#138 the Jaguar on 02.17.21 at 8:42 am

Fill up your tank….

“Veteran Goldman Sachs analyst Jeffrey Currie, who was a key voice in oil’s last supercycle between 2003 and 2014, told the Financial Times he believes there are real risks that oil trades in the us$80 range “or even higher this year.”

but this time it is not the emergence of an energy-hungry China that he predicts will boost consumption, but stimulus spending by governments around the world, such as the us$1.9-trillion proposed in the u.s. by the biden administration — including for “green” infrastructure.

“This type of stimulus aimed at middle and lower class income (households) creates significant, commodity-intensive consumption, as they have a much higher propensity to consume,” Currie said. “These people don’t drive Teslas. They drive Suvs.”

Didn’t that Buffett guy just invest in some little operation called ‘Chevron’?

#139 Wrk.dover on 02.17.21 at 9:03 am

#156 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 3:02 pm
#151 Wrk.dover on 02.16.21 at 1:23 pm

If I were MR. IH, I would slow build a 400 sq ft R2000 winter home in the back yard for the future!

___

A variation of this could happen! I have a 4 acre corner lot that I can take 2 easy lots off of, but there are “issues” with severing. I’m going to take one more kick at the can for this.

If successful, then our last ever house will be built next door. Small 1200-1300sf, but nice, built for old folks, and efficient.

Sever off two lots, build on one, sell the other, then sell our current place. I think after everything is paid, and everything is bought, we’d be in a nice new place and have ~200K in our pocket on top.

——————————————————

It’s cheaper to keep her (that was a song in 74)

Severance will trigger new assessments, including on the original probably improved homestead as well. Selling will create capitol gains. New neighbors will create eyesore and lost privacy, need I go on?

Leave the spare land on the table for the guy with the chest hair and gold necklace that buys your estate post your death. He will pay the bigger premium that day.

Build the granny/warm winter bunky small and under the radar of assessors valuation tables. Let the big house sit vacant during the depth of winter.

I had the surveyor put several extra pegs in, back in the day so I could lever loans on each building separately.
Then I built them with the doors opening on to the other properties. Made the assessor puke! Our one bedroom house with 7′-6″ ceilings and 6′ interior door openings is the sleaziest tax dodge I have ever come up with. Up and down the road there are similar rural estates with fewer and much smaller and even unwinterized out buildings, but because of a couple of extra 8X9 extra infantile bedrooms those inferiorly appointed homes attract more than double the property tax we gladly pay. We’ve done high fives here when cutting the forty years worth of several semi-annual chump sized property tax cheques. Re-sale value is the moot.

I’d ask your permit feller “how would YOU-YOURSELF go about getting a permit to build a 400 sq ft outbuilding with a toilet in it out near Your OWN barn? Then I would buy the permit before leaving the room. The kitchen and shower would follow on stealth, as well as an 140sq ft entry.

We are through with permits on this property though. Too many triggers on that smoking gun! My hands are tied on expansion because of it.

#140 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 9:05 am

#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

Any utility their biggest operational concern is riding the demand without overshooting or falling too out of tolerance and grid collapse. Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it. Have to anticipate the demand which is cyclical and seasonable, divert the lake faster or let less pass.

=============================

Too bad BC hasn’t embraced pumped storage to alleviate the dynamic load issues. Too busy trying to pay Site C off I guess. Or just get it built. But pumped storage is currently the most cost-effective means of storing large amounts of electrical energy and complements conventional hydroelectric.

“Pumped-storage hydropower is more than 80 percent energy efficient through a full cycle, and PSH facilities can typically provide 10 hours of electricity, compared to about 6 hours for lithium-ion batteries.”

https://thenarwhal.ca/u-s-hydropower-vision-exposes-b-c-s-short-sighted-thinking-site-c-dam/

An example here in Czech Republic, the Dlouhé stráně facility:

https://www.cez.cz/en/energy-generation/hydroelectric-power-plants/cez-hydroelectric-power-plants/czech-republic/dlouhe-strane

I have a bit of a fascination with turbines and admit I found it pretty cool the turbines act as both generators and pumps depending on the flow of water.

#141 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 9:17 am

#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm
Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.
/////////////

That’s not maple syrup, it’s maple flavoured corn syrup.

#142 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 9:31 am

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:25 am
@#130 BillyBob

https://ibb.co/nMpLqz4

Were those $1000 dirham notes?
Did you ‘money belt” them traveling from country to country?

===============================

Yeah, 1000’s in bundles of 50. But no money belt, I didn’t take them out of country. Just withdrew from the domestic bank where I received my salary and carried to a local currency exchange where they’d buy it and wire USD to my foreign account. Better rate and waived wire fee for airline employees, much better than my bank. Slightly cumbersome but savings add up over time. And kinda fun to carry mad stacks every couple months, far more tactile than numbers on a screen for sure.

#143 Diamond Dog on 02.17.21 at 9:34 am

I see the inflationary argument Garth but I also know recency bias when I see it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias

This is the inflation adjusted S/P 500 over 150 years and we look at this chart and tell ourselves that the 150 year trend is up so why not invest in the markets right, any time is a good time!

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Of course, that’s just one chart. Here’s another 10 year inflation adjusted chart (CAPE) based on P/E ratio’s in the same S/P 500:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

What does this chart tell us? That market valuations are at the second highest point next to the dot.com bubble in the last 150 years. This chart tells us we are in a bubble and this bubble and when we ask why, it’s government engineered. When the U.S. fed pulls the plug on it is anyone’s guess but my own is that this bubble doesn’t last the year.

Rock bottom interest rates, CB’s buying MBS’s to further reduce rates in real estate to create higher and higher asset valuations that create a wealth effect with investors leaving nowhere to go but the markets, CB’s can’t do this forever. CB’s will look for signs of economic strength and back off because they know that this wealth effect is all built on paper and as we know, one can only squeeze so much blood and sweat out of paper. At some point, this market fantasy will end. It’s a great dance while the music is playing and who knows how long the music will play on for (Japan’s Zenith orgiastic bubble saw 70x P/E ratios as an example) but when that music stops, we will wish we had already left the building:

https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/how-a-bubble-is-formed-when-the-music-is-playing-youve-got-to-get-up-and-dance

#144 Dharma Bum on 02.17.21 at 9:40 am

IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

So at what age did you pack it in and start the DB life?
———————————————————————-

I was 58.

Not exactly “early retirement”. As I mentioned, I also took a sabbatical at 50 years old. That gave me the taste.

It really started at age 44 when I sued my employer for constructive dismissal. I won the case (settled in mediation for a year’s salary), and essentially had a paid vacation for a year. That’s what made me realize that life, for me, was WAY BETTER when I was free to bum around.

It’s not for everyone, I’ll grant you that. Suits me fine, though.

However, I’m not some Bohemian Pollyanna. Although I never enjoyed my job, I still steadily worked like a dog in mediocre 9-5 white collar gigs full time since the age of 23. Got the wife, the house(s), the kids, the cars, the motorcycle, the boat, the vacations, and all that stuff.

But I knew from the beginning that I wanted freedom sooner than later. So I followed the traditional mainstream investment advice. Garth Turner books, The Wealthy Barber, Suzie Orman, Real Estate, Life Insurance, RRSP, Mutual Funds (back in the early 90s), and all that stuff. And I stuck with it. Still do.

By the time I was 50, I could “coast”. I knew if I took a year off (it was 14 months), I could easily cut it, and even if I couldn’t find a job of the same calibre when I returned, I had enough income producing assets to supplement any crap job that I would need to take for a few more years.

The point is that money gives you OPTIONS. Debt IMPRISONS you.

I was a Kerouac fan since the 70’s – long after it was even fashionable – hence the Dharma Bum moniker. It was way before my time, but the illusion of that era and lifestyle always appealed to me. My choice. Not for everyone. But I’m not genuine, because I chose to feather my nest and create my own security before pulling the plug on work.

So now I have the best of all worlds. Freedom. Security. Peace of mind. And the choice to do whatever suits me.

For those that think they want to retire, but are putting it off “by choice” until their mid to late 60’s, I’ve got news for you: Your body has some very nasty surprises waiting for you. Healthy people over the age of 70 are the outliers.

Things only get worse. Enjoy life while you can!

#145 WorriedMillennial on 02.17.21 at 9:46 am

What will it take for BoC or T2 to realize this asset bubble can have negative effects in the short and long term horizons. Really wondering if depression and suicidal rates are increasing.

Put yourself in a millennial’s shoes, great salaries, a down-payment ready, but your house choice went from a detached to a townhouse in a matter of a few months, and you need a place within a few months.

What will break first, the market or people?

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:07 am

@#142 BillyBob.
Interesting.
Most large denomination cash I ever had was 18, $1000 bills.
I had them in a small portfolio and showed a friend at the bar just as the waitress delivered our drinks.
She almost dropped the tray…….

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am

@#140 Billybob
““Pumped-storage hydropower is more than 80 percent energy efficient through a full cycle, and PSH facilities can typically provide 10 hours of electricity, compared to about 6 hours for lithium-ion batteries.””
====

My uncle was involved in a pumped storage facility in Cape Breton in the 1970’s. for Nova Scotia Power.

Appropriately named Wreck Cove….because I think it wrecked more than one political career

Pretty sure it’s still running.
But like all things Cape Breton …. a huge cash expense …….for votes.

#148 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 10:48 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am
——————

I was up hiking in Meaford along the escarpment in December. Signs everywhere reading “destroying blue does not = green” petitioning against a proposed energy project. I can see why the locals are so upset. Does anyone really think this project is a good idea?

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/multi-billion-dollar-hydro-generation-project-proposed-for-meaford-military-base-1.4589053

#149 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 10:49 am

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:07 am

Most large denomination cash I ever had was 18, $1000 bills.
I had them in a small portfolio and showed a friend at the bar just as the waitress delivered our drinks.
She almost dropped the tray…….

————

….when you left her a 24 cent tip.

#150 Dr V on 02.17.21 at 11:07 am

139 Wrk.dover

“I had the surveyor put several extra pegs in, back in
the day so I could lever loans on each building separately.”

Which province are you in? This is not possible in BC.
You cannot mortgage a physical portion of the property, it covers the entire property. This is because in case of foreclosure, the lender would then own a part of the property – a de facto subdivision.

You could of course get a second mortgage to do the second building, but no subdivision required for that.

Agreed on the other points regarding subdividing. Never as much money in it as people think.

#151 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:08 am

#141 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 9:17 am
#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm

Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.

————

That’s not maple syrup, it’s maple flavoured corn syrup.

————

I’ve always preferred Aunt Jemima’s to real maple syrup. It has more body and doesn’t vanish as a moist patch on the pancake. I relish the pancakes while simultaneously drinking in kitschy original art. A feast for both the belly and the eyes!

#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.21 at 11:14 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 8:32 am
They have replaced carpenters with a robot…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tech-3d-printed-house/printed-in-days-a-house-new-york-firm-takes-3d-printing-to-the-next-level-idUSKBN2AG2CA
————————
Old News

https://www.designboom.com/architecture/first-3d-printed-apartment-building-germany-construction-peri-cobod-11-24-2020/

#153 Stone on 02.17.21 at 11:22 am

#141 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 9:17 am
#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm
Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.
/////////////

That’s not maple syrup, it’s maple flavoured corn syrup.

———

Sorry to break it to y’all but Aunt J ain’t flavoured like maple syrup. It’s favoured like “artificial”.

Just like people call Timmies and Starbucks brown water “coffee”. Really people. Really?

Don’t even get me started on “the brown sauce” in poutine.

So many people out there without pedigree.

#154 Kevin Stewart on 02.17.21 at 11:33 am

Dont worry about government dept, those days are gone. As long as Canada can sell bonds and print cash who cares. We will always sell bonds at a rate near the USA and that big long border just keeps the greenbacks rolling in. The USA will never pay there national dept off, and neither will Canada, or any other country for that matter. As long as we are safer than the other countries in the world we will be good. We dont have to outrun the bear just some other dude.

#155 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:40 am

#148 Bezengy on 02.17.21 at 10:48 am
#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.21 at 10:14 am

————

I was up hiking in Meaford along the escarpment in December. Signs everywhere reading “destroying blue does not = green” petitioning against a proposed energy project. I can see why the locals are so upset. Does anyone really think this project is a good idea?

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/multi-billion-dollar-hydro-generation-project-proposed-for-meaford-military-base-1.4589053

————

Yep. That’s a fantastic idea. If this was in my jurisdiction, I’d be doing everything possible to secure a piece of the design work.

This is similar in many ways to BC Hydro’s Anderson Lake and Seton Lake system, but without the need for pumping since Anderson L is self-sustaining.

#156 Damifino on 02.17.21 at 11:43 am

#145 WorriedMillennial

Put yourself in a millennial’s shoes, great salaries, a down-payment ready, but your house choice went from a detached to a townhouse in a matter of a few months, and you need a place within a few months.
———————————

OK, I’ll put myself in those shoes:

I’ll rent instead and invest the down payment. There are hundreds of rental opportunities in Vancouver now with the advent of the pandemic and the collapse of Air B&B. I can even negotiate. Owners are that desperate. I’ll turn the current mess into something that works for me.

I’ll see it as the beginning of growing permanent wealth in something beyond a speculative, overpriced residential home with punishing carrying costs.

Great salaries may not be great forever. I’ll start growing my wealth now, while the sun shines. I’ll realize that single asset strategies, especially those that drain cash rather than return yield are a poor way forward.

I’ll know that I’m young and resilient with a long time horizon. That, coupled with some financial discipline will pave the way.

I’ll know that very few get rich quick. That will probably not be me. Fortunately, in this country (even run by incompetents, and perhaps, even because of it), it’s entirely possible to get rich slow.

#157 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 12:32 pm

#144 Dharma Bum on 02.17.21 at 9:40 am
IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

So at what age did you pack it in and start the DB life?
———————————————————————-

The point is that money gives you OPTIONS. Debt IMPRISONS you.

==============================

That is The Whole Thing, in a nutshell.

I have never loved money for it’s own sake, only for the options it has provided. It’s not real, not even the paper or shiny metal kind…but the freedom of having an excess of it most certainly is. That’s why Garth’s philosophies resonated from the first time I found his blog years ago.

I do not understand why the vast majority are voluntarily imprisoning themselves, even as they earnestly convince themselves and those around them they are not.

Kerouac is legend. Had the chance to see the On The Road scroll some years ago when it was on loan to the Met in NYC.

I salute your outlook, and endorse it wholeheartedly. Hope to buy you a drink one day. Stranger things…

And in the spirit of gonzo writers, RIP Smokey.

#158 Bill on 02.17.21 at 12:33 pm

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 8:47 pm
@#81 Nonplused
“Thus, barring some new miracle in battery technology, a fossil fuel free future is never going to happen.”

+++++
Geothermal. Unlimited and beneath your feet.
——————————-
Heating a very small part of the energy consumption equation.
Go build a house or a car and we can see where geothermal fits in. Teeny tiny.
Ive drilled wells / geothermal and you should see how much desiel we used.
Hell we had a 325 Cat wide open just on the compressor.
Many of our cell sites are helecopter access only…
Ie the Coquihalla hwy.
People have no clue when they enter into this arena.
I want to see these extremist give up any thing they use related to oil.
Yup dead in a week.

#159 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 12:35 pm

#140 BillyBob on 02.17.21 at 9:05 am
#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

Any utility their biggest operational concern is riding the demand without overshooting or falling too out of tolerance and grid collapse. Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it. Have to anticipate the demand which is cyclical and seasonable, divert the lake faster or let less pass.

=============================

Too bad BC hasn’t embraced pumped storage to alleviate the dynamic load issues. Too busy trying to pay Site C off I guess. Or just get it built. But pumped storage is currently the most cost-effective means of storing large amounts of electrical energy and complements conventional hydroelectric.

—————————————————————-

Yeah, the goal of a utility is to balance the demand curve. You can’t quickly adjust the power output of giant thermal plants, so pumped storage can be used to store excess electricity for later use.

BC mainly has hydro power, which can be adjusted as needed to match the demand curve so there’s no need for pumped storage. Water that isn’t used to generate power, just builds up behind the dam for later use – its energy does not get lost; of course there are limits as to how high you can fill the reservoir.

#160 Wrk.dover on 02.17.21 at 12:48 pm

#150 Dr V on 02.17.21 at 11:07 am

?

——————————-

Very remote part of coastal NS 40 years ago. No eye brow movement at all. The plot plan was drawn with all the dots connected. Then recorded and done. May have cost an extra hundred on a few hundred.

#161 Wrk.dover on 02.17.21 at 12:53 pm

#144 Dharma Bum on 02.17.21 at 9:40 am

As like you, I don’t need more than I need.

#162 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 12:58 pm

#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it.

—————————————————————

You’re describing run of river hydro, not traditional hydro with dams and reservoirs. Big difference.

#163 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 1:05 pm

#144 Dharma Bum on 02.17.21 at 9:40 am
IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

So at what age did you pack it in and start the DB life?
———————————————————————-

I was 58.

Not exactly “early retirement”. As I mentioned, I also took a sabbatical at 50 years old. That gave me the taste.
___

Thanks for the info and background. Funny how thoughts and ages line up, I started thinking a lot more about when I’d like to retire come my mid 40’s as well. Recently, there’s been a series of deaths of ex co-workers of mine – all in their 60’s. One guy was super healthy and got brain Cancer – dead at 64. Now I think retire sooner rather than later.

I think we could likely hang up the gloves at 57-58 at the earliest. We’ll have enough at 60, more than enough at 65, but 55-60 would be a hole for income, and also a very bad time to hobble the portfolio. Going at 55 working 3 days per week appeals too. Or the casual side biz idea.

#164 jess on 02.17.21 at 1:38 pm

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-illustrates-why-canada-needs-more-and-better-public-banks-154000

“The Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) responded rapidly to Covid-19, approving just over €3 billion in emergency financing to 15 countries in the three months from the start of the spread of the pandemic in Europe in March 2020. As a small bank with a social mandate and a well-established programme of lending to the public sector, it amended its rules to ‘fast track’ pub-lic funding to health systems and small businesses that were under strain. CEB funding covered a broader range of operational costs (in-cluding emergency equipment and staffing) than multilateral banks typically offer. CEB’s high credit rating meant it could borrow cheaply from international capital markets, and as a non-profit lender it was able to pass on favourable rates to the national and regional governments that it serves
The Kf W is a German public development bank with decades of institutional history and substantial financial capacity. When the Covid-19 pandemic hit Germany, the Kf W formed part of the Government’s coordinated financial response, collabo-rating with public authorities to deliver rapid and substantial sup-port at home and abroad. In this moment of crisis, the KfW has made use of its accumulated resources and expertise to facilitate a pro-public response. The KfW offers important lessons about the importance of building up public banking capacity and about hav-ing the democratic structures in place to mobilize public banks in the public interest.

https://publicbankscovid19.org/images/PDF_FILES/Chapter_7_-_KfW.pdf
https://publicbankscovid19.org/images/PDF_FILES/Chapter_5_-_CEB.pdf

https://publicbankscovid19.org/images/PDF_FILES/Chapter_14_-_Italy.pdf

https://publicbankscovid19.org/images/PDF_FILES/Chapter_13_-_China.pdf

PUBLIC BANKINGIN PANDEMIC TIMES:PORTUGAL’S CAIXA GERALDE DEPÓSITOS

Is the Future public ownership?

https://www.tni.org/en/futureispublic

https://gothamcity.ch/2020/01/29/pdvsa-lenquete-americaine-se-rapproche-des-intermediaires-suisses/

===============
https://www.wellingtonadvertiser.com/mapleton-drops-plan-to-outsource-water-wastewater-infrastructure/

#165 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 1:39 pm

#162 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 12:58 pm
#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it.

————

You’re describing run of river hydro, not traditional hydro with dams and reservoirs. Big difference.

————

Correct. Hydro reservoirs can adjust generating capacity to store potential. BC electricity is nearly all hydropower and heaps of power is sold to the US.

Interesting tidbit: BC Hydro has many run-of-river hydropower stations on steep mountain streams that feed into their reservoirs, so in these cases, they get power first from the stream above the reservoir, then more power through the main powerhouse on the reservoir.

#166 Stone on 02.17.21 at 1:46 pm

#144 Dharma Bum on 02.17.21 at 9:40 am
IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

So at what age did you pack it in and start the DB life?
———————————————————————-

I was 58.

Not exactly “early retirement”. As I mentioned, I also took a sabbatical at 50 years old. That gave me the taste.

It really started at age 44 when I sued my employer for constructive dismissal. I won the case (settled in mediation for a year’s salary), and essentially had a paid vacation for a year. That’s what made me realize that life, for me, was WAY BETTER when I was free to bum around.

It’s not for everyone, I’ll grant you that. Suits me fine, though.

However, I’m not some Bohemian Pollyanna. Although I never enjoyed my job, I still steadily worked like a dog in mediocre 9-5 white collar gigs full time since the age of 23. Got the wife, the house(s), the kids, the cars, the motorcycle, the boat, the vacations, and all that stuff.

But I knew from the beginning that I wanted freedom sooner than later. So I followed the traditional mainstream investment advice. Garth Turner books, The Wealthy Barber, Suzie Orman, Real Estate, Life Insurance, RRSP, Mutual Funds (back in the early 90s), and all that stuff. And I stuck with it. Still do.

By the time I was 50, I could “coast”. I knew if I took a year off (it was 14 months), I could easily cut it, and even if I couldn’t find a job of the same calibre when I returned, I had enough income producing assets to supplement any crap job that I would need to take for a few more years.

The point is that money gives you OPTIONS. Debt IMPRISONS you.

I was a Kerouac fan since the 70’s – long after it was even fashionable – hence the Dharma Bum moniker. It was way before my time, but the illusion of that era and lifestyle always appealed to me. My choice. Not for everyone. But I’m not genuine, because I chose to feather my nest and create my own security before pulling the plug on work.

So now I have the best of all worlds. Freedom. Security. Peace of mind. And the choice to do whatever suits me.

For those that think they want to retire, but are putting it off “by choice” until their mid to late 60’s, I’ve got news for you: Your body has some very nasty surprises waiting for you. Healthy people over the age of 70 are the outliers.

Things only get worse. Enjoy life while you can!

———

Yes, retiring at 44 was the best thing I could do. 6 months later, no regrets. Fully agree about having options and choices. Again, no regrets.

#167 IHCTD9 on 02.17.21 at 1:59 pm

#151 Sail Away on 02.17.21 at 11:08 am
#141 Penny Henny on 02.17.21 at 9:17 am
#57 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 5:44 pm

Anyone have pancakes for supper today?

We had a near empty bottle of Aunt Jemima on the table, and Ms. IH had put out a new full one out as well (we guzzle maple syrup). I notice Aunt J herself was missing from the new bottle. I had heard they were getting rid of her, and that day has obviously come and gone.

————

That’s not maple syrup, it’s maple flavoured corn syrup.

————

I’ve always preferred Aunt Jemima’s to real maple syrup. It has more body and doesn’t vanish as a moist patch on the pancake. I relish the pancakes while simultaneously drinking in kitschy original art. A feast for both the belly and the eyes!
___

All these dogs here dissing Auntie J had to look at the ingredients and the label on the bottle…

…that was located in their fridge! :O

That’s right homies! Don’t be negging Aunt J, she’s got hundreds of millions of fans ready to defend her honour.

Or… at least she did back when she still existed.

#168 Bill on 02.17.21 at 2:03 pm

#162 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 12:58 pm
#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm
Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it.
—————————————————————
You’re describing run of river hydro, not traditional hydro with dams and reservoirs. Big difference.
==========================
Yes we use what’s produced from the run of the river first to the grid as you take what you can get and the dams are the elastic part were they can increase or decrease power output.
Unless your taking lake Mead where drought is a problem.
BC we have what we call pennies from heaven. Rain and snow to keep the flow.
Thankfully the majority of rain is in the winter when we use more energy thus we can push the turbines harder with that continuous supply.
Snow is the stored part of the equation supplying the reservoirs in the spring summer melt. Pretty cool… BC has got it pretty good.

#169 mike from mtl on 02.17.21 at 2:16 pm

#162 Stoph on 02.17.21 at 12:58 pm
#97 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 8:37 pm

Example Hydro has loads of potential power but can’t store it, use it or lose it.

—————————————————————

You’re describing run of river hydro, not traditional hydro with dams and reservoirs. Big difference.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Right was not worded clearly, was referring to storing the converted electrical power itself. Which is also true of other sources like Nuclear, Coal, Diesel, NatGas, BioMass etc. HydroQuebec is mostly the traditional damed kind.

#170 The Roaring Twenties  on 02.17.21 at 4:53 pm

…and dont forget the economic crash at the end…

#171 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? Not to ILLEGAL guns.... on 02.18.21 at 1:15 am

“For Life” tv show tonight:
“Just keep pushing and this will fall like a house of cards”…..hahahah or yayayayya