The plan

When the virus hit, the government was vexed. Jobs vanished. The economy cracked. Things looked bleak and hopeless. The real estate market froze with the first lockdown.

What to do?

The central bank trashed interest rates. Restrictions on lending were eased amid predictions housing activity would plunge – bad news, since it’s a big chunk of the GDP. Politicians turned their attention to aggressively fighting Covid, hoping for the best.

But then, a surprise.

House prices soared instead of tanking. Investors flooded in. Bidding wars. First-time buyers found themselves abruptly shut out of the market as swelling demand and cheap money inflated real estate in a way nobody had anticipated.

What happened then?

Well, if you live in Canada, diddly. That was the point of yesterday’s post. Canada’s most delusional housing markets are in the midst of a bubble which is fatter, more turgid, more extreme, gaseous and faster-inflating than that of 2017 – which prompted urgent government measures. This time instead of cooling buyer loins, governments are turning a blind eye. The result is astonishing – an increase of 8-10% per month in suburban Toronto and Vancouver housing, flippers galore and an historic ballooning of family mortgage debt.

But wait. The scenario described above also perfectly fits another country. So how has New Zealand dealt with a WFH, nesting-induced, virus-kindled bout of house horniness?

“A growing number of highly indebted borrowers, especially investors, are now financially vulnerable to house price corrections and disruptions to their ability to service the debt,” the NZ central bank said last week. “Highly leveraged property owners, in particular investors, are more prone to rapid ‘fire sales’ that potentially amplify any downturn… There is evidence of a speculative dynamic emerging with many buyers becoming highly leveraged.”

Absolutely. So while Ottawa, the Bank of Canada, the provinces, municipalities and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation spin and cluck, this is what little New Zealand is doing:

  • Effective March 1st, anyone buying a house they intend to occupy will require a down payment of 20% of the purchase price
  • Investors buying property to hold for capital appreciation or rental income will require a down payment of 30%.
  • Effective May 1st, the minimum down for investors will rise to 40%.
  • New measures will be forthcoming in a few days to curb demand, “particularly from those who are speculating,” says the finance minister.
  • Among the moves expected: changes to tax deductibility of rental property expenses to make them a less attractive investment vehicle.

As well, NZ does not allow non-citizens to buy homes, although anyone with residency status may do so. By the way, a mortgage costs more down under – the best current rate is 1.99% for a one-year fixed term (HSBC) and to get it a borrower requires an income of at least $125,000 plus a bank balance of $100,000 or more.

Oh, and what has prompted this strenuous response from the central bank and the national government? How bad has NZ price inflation become?

The gain in valuations is the fastest since March of 2017 (just like Canada) and the annual jump was clocked in January at 12.8%. Yup, twelve per cent. About the amount a dodgy particle-board-and-glue house in Brampton is rising in value every six weeks.

Should government here be acting to prick the bubble? Will Mr. Market take care of things on his own as the herd is vaxed, workplaces reopen and people stop obsessing about real estate? Or are we setting on a perilous path to a society where houses equal wealth, making the young SOL and disenfranchised? When property is exploding in value is it cool to let people buy it with 1.5% mortgages and 20x leverage? Then cash out and keep all the profit free of tax? With $1.6 trillion in family debt, is anyone in power planning for when the virus ends and rates rise?

All these questions are beyond the pay grade of this pathetic blog. We here at GreaterFool are just happy that the daily listing porn and moister house-horniness we wallow in has made its way to the big time…

About the picture: “I’m blessed with a wonderful wife, two happy and healthy young children, and our golden boy Thompson. (He turns twelve next week),” writes Dylan. “Thanks to Thompson, Amy fell in love with me. I wouldn’t be where I am had I not had him by my side when I met Amy. All that being said, our home for the past 3 years has been the perfect place for T-Bird (Thompson) to enjoy his retirement. He has a 10 acres of forest with a stream to bathe in out his back door. And he doesn’t have to foot any of the bills.” This is Thompson’s Christmas portrait.

159 comments ↓

#1 BlogDog123 on 02.15.21 at 2:49 pm

Never underestimate parents’ ability to keep funding the insanity for their house-horny millennial kids.

Mom, Dad, I need $350,000 now to buy into this expensive market or I’ll be throwing my money away at rent. You don’t want to visit your grand-kids in a stinky apartment building, do you? You don’t want your children locked out of housing forever?

Pay up so we can look wealthy like our peers whose parents fund their lifestyle…

#2 Rainman on 02.15.21 at 2:52 pm

The open market will always sort itself out. I’m sure you agree it’s best if the government just stays out of it. Yeah they’ll be some pain, but we are all grown ups…

#3 salutations sally on 02.15.21 at 2:53 pm

Good Grief, I cant be first….. can I ?

#4 George on 02.15.21 at 2:54 pm

Great blog entry Garth

Canada ? We have Trudeau , he’s wondering if cerb cheques are being sent fast enough

KAPUT

#5 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 2:54 pm

re:

“You realize that electricity comes mostly from coal and natural gas, right? #114 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:44 pm (from yesterday)

The transition to electric transportation is going to require massive innovation which humans have demonstrated is possible (the Manhattan project, inter-planetary space exploration etal).

Here is one innovation aimed at the household level:

https://legionsolar.com/index.html
First item on the FAQ page:
Legion Solar employs our game changing concept called Solar Regulator™, a technology to contain generated energy behind your meter where the utility company does not own, enabling you to generate your own electricity without restriction. As a result, you avoid having to pay for costs normally built into traditional solar systems such as resellers markups, professional installation, sales rep overhead, workers comp insurance, permits, regulatory other fees. We’ve designed Legion Solar to be lean and mean, where you’re paying only for the necessary items to get the job done making Legion Solar 300% more affordable than tradition solar systems.

I can recommend Yuval Noah Harari’s work on human history and it’s trajectory: https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095

Not long ago we humans had no indoor plumbing.

We can solve these problems.

ps… Harbour Air here on the west coast:

“Harbour Air to add zero-emission electric plane; aims to convert whole fleet” https://vancouversun.com/business/energy/harbour-air-to-add-zero-emission-electric-plane-aims-to-convert-whole-fleet

I intended no insult to you or anyone else in my post.

Share your comment:

#6 KNOW IT ALL on 02.15.21 at 3:01 pm

Bought time these greaterfools got to lay in the bed they made…… if they can afford to.

Let it rip, keep the government out of it.

#7 Polecat on 02.15.21 at 3:02 pm

All I know is it has gotten crazy in Ottawa. Even across the river in Gatineau it has gotten insane, friend of mine bid 160k over asking after losing out on several bidding wars. Dog help us all.

#8 TurnerNation on 02.15.21 at 3:05 pm

As always this weblog is best taken sublingually

>What’s going in around the world – in an effort to Stop the Spread of Capitalism?

Brazil – the citizens still want their carnivals and took to the streets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaBXF9k7Tfc
“Clandestine carnival in Nova Iguaçu ends in confusion – PM had to react – 168 views•Feb 13, 2021
Images of clandestine parties that took place in cities.

— Oh boy those globalists have North America in the target. Is this a soft sell toward the North American Union? Another “expert”, and Erin O’toole, telling us we must follow Biden. It’s all right here…and happening so fast.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-feb-15-2021-1.5912334/bill-gates-on-tackling-climate-change-and-why-canada-and-u-s-must-take-the-lead-1.5912418
“American entrepreneur and philanthropist Bill Gates says Canada and the U.S. must set an example for the rest of the world in the fight against climate change.
“Historically, we have had a lot of emissions, and we’re well-off countries.”
RELATED STORIES: How this expert says Canada could benefit from Biden’s climate plan”

“Bill Gates on the global green reset: “It’s an all-out effort, like a world war, but it’s us against greenhouse gases.””

—-Translation: You are a well-off first world country. But in the near future you won’t be. Search google for “Energy Poverty”. That coupled with the almost run-away food inflation means bye-bye middle class. The rise of the CERB class.
Canola prices to the moon, Canola oil is used in most processed foods. https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=RS&p=m1

— Underscoring that this is not about our health but in making the rich richer and poor poorer.
Ask again why is Kanada’s economy, culture and socialization being wrecked?
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/feb/11/its-as-if-theres-no-covid-nepal-defies-pandemic-amid-a-broken-economy
“‘It’s as if there’s no Covid’: Nepal defies pandemic amid a broken economy
Cases appear low and sports venues are packed, but protests are on the rise as jobs are lost and personal debt soars”

………..

— Reminder that the technological control over our lives was planned long ago. 2020 was designed to bring us to heel globally. You can visit http://www.ID2020.org and see, Microsoft is a partner natch. Gotta like the NewSpeak/DoubleSpeak – it’s to ‘protect our civil liberties’. How cute. Now flip that statement 180 degrees.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/immunity-certificates-if-we-must-have-them-we-must-do-it-right–id2020-alliance-releases-white-paper-301044459.html
SAN FRANCISCO, April 21, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — In a white paper, published today by the Harvard University Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, ID2020 urged policymakers, technology providers, and civil society organizations to collaborate to ensure that digital health credentials or “immunity certificates”, if implemented, are intentionally designed to protect privacy and civil liberties.

https://networkinvegas.com/sisolaks-corporate-takeover-of-nevada-tech-firm-aims-to-create-first-corporate-government/

Sisolak’s innovation zones would permit tech companies with large areas of land to form separate governments carrying the same authority as counties, including the ability to impose taxes, form school districts and courts, provide government services, and implement Communist China style tracking and social credit systems.
Sisolak pitched the concept in his State of the State address delivered Jan. 19, and now one company is ready to push forward.
In his proposal, Sisolak named Blockchains, LLC as a company that had committed to developing a “smart city” in an area east of Reno after the legislation has passed.

– Covid = new world order, if you did not catch on already. Opinion piece but designed to forment our opinion. Normalization.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencewintermeyer/2020/09/17/coivd-and-the-new-world-orderbuiding-a-new-human-centered-economy/?sh=446b01e178f0
Covid And The New World Order – Building A New Human Centered Economy
Lawrence Wintermeyer -Contributor – Fintech

#9 Comments! on 02.15.21 at 3:08 pm

Mr Market cannot be trusted to fix itself with so much chicanery going on between builders, bankers, CHMC, foreign money laundering and above all, realtors. No way in hell. Many smart people have been beckoning for the abolishment of CHMC and the return of 25% down payments, CRA and RCMP getting draconian on money laundering with the banks inheriting all the risk, for over 15 years. The country and its government at all levels is gutless and pathetic, what else can I say? Who relies on flipping garbage houses to one another and call it an “economy”? Brutal.

No balls, no baby is what the Cuban guy is always going on about.

#10 Winterpeg on 02.15.21 at 3:13 pm

The meme has been, and still is that house=wealth, even if it is not true when you crunch the numbers.
That meme persists in our psyche, and shapes government policies that in turn, fuel the real estate frenzy. Past governments took some steps to cool it, but they were not stringent enough.
The Trudeau government in particular, always wants to look like the “cool kid”, so they will do whatever it takes to win votes of the financially illiterate masses, even though they are setting the country up for financial misery. Ie: they don’t want to make unpopular decisions.
We are also in an election year, and are distracted by the Covid crisis, so probably little will likely be done by this government.

#11 Dr V on 02.15.21 at 3:15 pm

Funny vid.

neighbour just sold. Multiple bids. Went for more than
$100k over asking. A million bucks – a first in my hood.

Talked to him when shovelling snow(?!). He just retired and is moving to the interior to be closer to kids and
g-kids. They already tried for a new place. 8 bids. Did not “win”.

I thanked him for next years assessments.

#12 Prince Polo on 02.15.21 at 3:16 pm

Unfortunately, nobody in power is planning anything substantial. If/when rates rise, the next step in the playbook will be 50yr, multi-generational mortgage terms that require the production of at least one offspring. I remind everyone reading this, that it is meant to be delivered with 99% sarcasm + 1% fear (tail risk) that politicos will actual do it!

#13 3Monks on 02.15.21 at 3:16 pm

It continues, with no end in site. Overvalued and Overpriced properties, with the removal of a generation of Canadians who will not be able to purchase a property – simply unreal.

Trash politico’s that See No Evil, Hear No Evil and Speak No Evil!!

#14 Faron on 02.15.21 at 3:18 pm

Thompson looks like a very good boy. Possibly the best boy although Randall here would dispute that claim.

I solved my Zillow lusting by buying a 700k house and putting myself and partner in half a mil debt! Yay!

#15 free markets? on 02.15.21 at 3:19 pm

governments and politicians are mostly incompetent and inept. some may mean well. but in the end, almost everything they do is contrary to the greater good.

interfering in the free market guarantees misallocation of resources and capital. every time there is a crisis, the answer is to print more money and lower rates.

we need more jobs, let’s bribe some car companies with taxpayer money to come and build plants. heaven help us if we don’t prop them up when they fail.

let’s pick and choose what will win and lose in the economy because as a politician and as a government, we know best. …

let’s shut down the economy because of Covid, but let Amazon and Walmart and Homedepot, operate and take over and destroy small business ..

let’s shut down local restaurants, and let McDonalds and Tims take market share.

how about abolishing central banks, and limiting the powers of politicians and governments to let the free market work..? it’s a novel idea. might be amazed to see what happens.

but i guess it’s far too late for that..

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 3:22 pm

“…..in the midst of a bubble which is fatter, more turgid, more extreme, gaseous and faster-inflating …..”

++++

Elevator music to my ears…..

#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm

#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

???????????????????????????????

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!

Best toy my wife ever bought in her life.

I bought the connected road lot first.

As for retirement, did it at 35, never saved a dime for the next decade. Then expenses changed. 25% surplus, last 20 years.

#18 Antoine on 02.15.21 at 3:28 pm

Garth I’m afraid if this keeps going on for much longer your head is going to explode. Chill out man, life’s too short

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 3:30 pm

@#190 Faron
“A hot arctic eats away at yet more multi-year sea ice which is becoming irreversible. Yes, that does matter.”

+++

Yep. Temps climbing in the Arctic faster than the lower regions.
Nothing like melting permafrost to fart out billions of tons of trapped , frozen methane to really get things cooking…..

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/sios-sda052119.php

#20 TurnerNation on 02.15.21 at 3:42 pm

Keep an eye on our food supply…especially meat. CV did this? Seen in the MSM:

“Hungary to kill over 100,000 chickens citing bird flu outbreak …www.dailysabah.com › world › europe › hungary-to-ki…
Jan. 14, 2021 — Hungary’s food safety authority NEBIH ordered the slaughter of 101,000 chickens on Thursday because of a bird flu outbreak, it said on its …

— As I expected, years ago – before the New System was rolled out in March 2020!

#49 TurnerNation on 09.10.19 at 8:54 pm
I beleive in my lifetime good foodstuffs will be trashed as armed men look on and people are starving. Maybe the correct karbon permit was not applied for, or the WHO claims dread disease and we comply. Trees have more rights than yourself.

#91 TurnerNation on 12.17.19 at 8:06 am
For years now I’ve stated a time will come whereby armed government men destroy perfectly good food stuffs while desperately hungry people look on. Maybe the WHO says there is a virus, or maybe the correct ‘carbon permit’ was not obtained beforehand

…………

Here comes the control, ramped up into 2021 this isn’t going away. It’s about keep us in a state of fear. Maybe until the new e-currency is released? I dunno.
You no longer have the right to be healthy, you no longer have an immune system either. Now The State owns and controls your body
Who is making the greenbacks off these tests I wonder? Don’t worry guys only 192 countries of ‘variants’ left to pull out of the hat. One a week should last us until 2025.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7641169/mississauga-condo-african-variant-covid-19-coronavirus/
All residents of Mississauga condo to be tested after South African COVID-19 variant confirmed

– How cute, you get colour coded badges in the camps. The young are of course the target of all of this. They must never again know normalcy. That system is gone.

From coronavirus.berkeley.edu On Friday Feb 12th UC Berkeley administrators announced:
“Students who are in isolation (red badge) or quarantine (orange badge) are not permitted to go outside and must complete their isolation or quarantine period.
With a decrease in the number of students within the residence halls testing positive for COVID-19, other students in the residence halls (green badge) may now leave their rooms to recreate or exercise outdoors between the hours of 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. While outside, students must continue to wear face coverings and maintain physical distancing.” ”

— When will this end? When science takes place:

“2009 H1N1 Individual Case Counts
Why did CDC stop reporting confirmed and probable 2009 H1N1 flu cases?
Individual case counts were kept early during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak when the 2009 H1N1 virus first emerged. As the outbreak expanded and became more widespread, individual case counts become increasingly impractical and not representative of the true extent of the outbreak. This is because only a small proportion of persons with respiratory illness are actually tested and confirmed for influenza (including 2009 H1N1) so the true benefit of keeping track of these numbers is questionable. In addition, the extensive spread of 2009 H1N1 flu within the United States made it extremely resource-intensive for states to count individual cases. On July 24, 2009, CDC discontinued reporting of individual cases of 2009 H1N1, but continued to track hospitalizations and deaths.”
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/reportingqa.htm

#21 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 02.15.21 at 3:42 pm

I was in high school when Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to the double digit level. I remember buying Canada Savings Bonds with over 15% interest with my fast food job money.

Those interest rates caused a lot of suffering. With all the stimulus we may have to take extreme measures to cool off inflation in the future.

Paul Volcker was successful in putting the inflation beast to sleep. Now we are poking that beast with a stick. I hope it does not wake up again.

#22 Dolce Vita on 02.15.21 at 3:53 pm

Thanks My Liege:

https://i.imgur.com/nY5wIxE.png

Ciao d’Italia (a.k.a., Unavailable Country).

Thank God YouTube.ca doesn’t care.

————-

I hate RE.

Pricing out 1st time buyers does not bode well for Cdn RE. They are the underpinning of the giant Cdn RE pyramid. Take them out and few to sell to as people try to move up the pyramid. Not that I care, just saying.

————-

Vax doses forecast deliveries published today by Gov Canada:

Pfizer-BioNTech, 6 dose per vial:
15-21 Feb 403,650
22-28 Feb 475,020
1-7 Mar 444,600
8-14 Mar 444,600
15-21 Mar 444,600
22-28 Mar 444,600
29 Mar – 4 Apr 444,600

Moderna, doses:
1-7 Feb 180,000
22-28 Feb 168,000

= 3,449,670 doses or 1,724,835 people 2 dose vax’d.

Consider that this past Saturday, Feb 13, we are this many people/doses behind vaxing Cdns*:

3,807,197 people or 7,614,394 doses.

*32M Cdns ≥ 15 yrs of age = “ALL” vax’d by Oct. 4 (end of Sept, WK 39) you need to 2 dose vax these many EVERY WEEK starting Jan. 1:

819,656.

This week to Apr 4 this many MORE are reqd to be vax’d:

5,737,593 people or 11,475,187 doses.

Thus, with 3.5M doses to the end of Apr 4 Canada will have caught up by about HALF of the shortfall to Feb 13.

By Apr 4 an ADDITIONAL 11.5M doses are needed and not forthcoming.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

——————————-

Capt. Obv:

It’s not looking good at all. Not a bit. Not even in catch up football.

If it is true the UK variant (the nice one, not the one that can escape your immune system) will take over in worst case 1.5 months by April 1 then as it stands now I’m afraid to say:

Expect disappointment Canada, the UK variant (the nice one) will OUTPACE vaxing.

Hopefully, it will be the Mother of All Vaccinations Late Spring or Summer in Canada. Fingers crossed.

“Optimism the economy will quickly accelerate once the pace of vaccinations picks up.”

#23 S.Bby on 02.15.21 at 3:54 pm

The whole thing is becoming quite alarming.

#24 SimplyPut7 on 02.15.21 at 4:03 pm

I think we should just let the bubble pop on its own. No more government intervention.

When the money runs out or the price valuations get ridiculous like GameStop people will learn valuable lessons from the fall.

This may be happening already, the market has softened a bit, homes in my area take longer to sell, are selling with conditions and for full asking not sold over asking.

Since the unemployment numbers have come out, high paying jobs getting the axe from various high-profile employers across Canada, no vaccines available for several more weeks/months and no real plan to return to normal (I may go back to the office in 2022 – maybe); I noticed a change in attitude from people.

People are starting to be a bit more prudent with their finances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0LKj2G5FAQ

#25 Rogerhomeinspector on 02.15.21 at 4:06 pm

In Kitchener Waterloo, median family income is $78,000. Average house price last month was just shy of $850,000. Bit of a disconnect, no? I always wonder, you have all these Boomers living in their big empty nests, but who’s going to buy them?? the kids coming up behind me (I’m 40) have almost no hope in hell of buying a $950,000 home. In fact, my understanding is that generation actually despises ownership of stuff.

I have. Feeling that once all the money being pumped into propping up asset prices makes its way into consumer goods, rates are going to have to be increased quickly to keep a lid on inflation.

#26 housecraziness on 02.15.21 at 4:09 pm

Hey Garth;

I hear you but this could go on a lot longer than you and many of us think. I thought prices were crazy 10 years ago and now look.
The problem is that central bankers have to keep interest rates low for years if not forever. There is just way too much debt in the system..any significant uptick always results in a financial market crash so they will keep QE to infinity and yield control and other craxzy ideas.
So if interest rates are zero and your home capital gains is tax free why would people gamble on the stock market and then pay taxes on their gains in the stock market.
I think this could go on for another 2-5 years or maybe even more..the government seems ok with it. Its the only part of the economy really booming and its 20 percent of the economy now so if it goes then down goes Canada. But of course the longer it goes the harder the fall but the powers that be dont care..
So bottom line is that real estate is the GME for the masses it seems. I doubt mortgage rates go much higher before the central banks freak again and push them back down. Or the stock market crashes which also forces rates down..so either way. And lets not forget negative rates are now becoming more common..maybe we will have 0.5 percent mortgages in a few years.

#27 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 4:09 pm

#193 Ustabe on 02.15.21 at 3:11 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm
…For me, that looks like wood heat (from free skid wood, buying firewood here is north of 300.00/bush cord, and I don’t own a wood lot) as a supplement to pellets. For now…

What is a bush cord? Around here you will find some who try and sell a face cord (4x2x8) for around $100 but we use a guy who sells a full cord (4x4x8) for around $150. So, full cord of 128 cubic feet is $150.

Immediately where I live trees are ageing: branches as thick as your thigh are falling, wind is decapitating, etc. So one neighbour or another is always having some “overhead liability” taken down. Most no longer even have a fireplace and are very happy to accept my offer of free yard clean up. Just a few weeks ago finished moving, splitting and stacking almost 3 cords (one tree, big one, eh?) from two houses down.

As to pellets, don’t know about whole house stoves but I have a 12V pellet smoker for camping and 20 lbs of hickory pellets are close to $40. Good thing you don’t really use that many on a rack of ribs or a grill full of split trout. And it is a finicky thing, replaced the control panel twice, the hot rod twice, the auger motor once and so far its all warranty even tho I’m years past the published warranty term…never know for certain if its going to work every time I go to use it.
— —-

Looks like what you call a full cord, we call a bush cord: 4x4x8. A face cord here is 16” x 4 x 8, ie. 1/3rd bush cord, or 1 row of a bush cord at 16” stove length.

30 years ago, wood was easy to scrounge here. We did farmer’s fence lines mostly. It was pretty easy wood in the winter, drop ‘em into an empty field on frozen earth, limb, buck, and into the trailer. Today, it’s worth too much to just give away, even if you’re doing the work or free. You can still get it, but it’s harder and riskier.

On the flip side, skid/shipping wood is falling off trees for free. I use steel sheet/plate shipping pallets, 4”x4” and 2”x6” construction, mostly hardwood, no bark, kiln dried. Laying in a gravel yard, drive right up to it.

Heating Pellets were 7.00/bag (40 lb) this year. My stove has had every motorized gizmo replaced twice or more. Had to do the glass, flame spreader and auger last year. I do it all myself so it’s tolerable, but having to hire a guy in to diagnose, order parts, then fix would be a giant PITA. The stove would be down half the season some years.

#28 Alberta Ed on 02.15.21 at 4:14 pm

I wonder if New Zealand would be willing to annex Canada. We could get a responsible federal government for a change, and have someplace warm to go in the winter.

#29 S.O on 02.15.21 at 4:18 pm

Bank of Canada is warning Canadians that bitcoin is a speculative bubble, while at the same time they stated that they don’t see real estate in a bubble.

#30 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 4:18 pm

The best action for financially-savvy parents to take is to pay it forward and help the next generation start adult life with security and financial acumen. Not necessarily a house down payment, but…

Take full advantage of RESPs for your own kids, nephews, nieces and grandkids. Help them start registered accounts when they reach age of majority. Kick it off with the initial contribution, and send them finance books at all gifting times in addition to the stuff they really want. Openly discuss family finances and assets. Encourage kids to ask for advice but also to do things with money on their own to make mistakes and successes.

Some will have more interest than others.

Family trusts and family corporations can also make sense. Maybe Loonie Doctor can explore this on his website at some point?

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 4:26 pm

5 million people without power in subzero temps….
Break out the wood pallet stoves

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-texas/cold-snap-leaves-5-million-in-texas-mexico-without-power-idUSKBN2AF0OK

#32 Dolce Vita on 02.15.21 at 4:31 pm

#8 TurnerNation

Brazil – the citizens still want their carnivals and took to the streets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaBXF9k7Tfc
“Clandestine carnival in Nova Iguaçu ends in confusion – PM had to react – 168 views•Feb 13, 2021

———————

That’s OK, parties, gatherings, COVID loves a party, the bigger the better. I can’t believe anyone would be THAT reckless but hey:

It’s just another Covid-19 + variants day on Planet Earth.

———————–

In Italia they are going to stream Carnevale di Venezia*.

https://www.carnevale.venezia.it/

*A lot more dignified affair than the 2 day Booty call that it is in Rio. Actually Carnevale is all over Italia but again, “digitale” or delayed. Like in Viareggio where they decided to wait until Sept:

https://viareggio.ilcarnevale.com/

Something for Brasil to consider.

Viareggio is where they did Trump a bunch of different ways last year:

https://i.imgur.com/YUOCYJK.png
https://i.imgur.com/HNMZaUo.png

and hapless vaxing efforts by Rome’s Mayor for this year (mock up, float will be much larger like Trump’s above):

https://i.imgur.com/tgDy8Qy.png

————————–

I will miss Carnevale di Venezia.

1 hr away to Santa Lucia train station for me. It is amazing (as is Harry’s Bar just around the corner from Piazza San Marco).

#33 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 4:31 pm

#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm

I should have mentioned my wife’s three staggered deferred salary years off were the expenses that prevented any savings, pre her permanent Dharma Bumming/retirement.

#34 binky barnes on 02.15.21 at 4:33 pm

Just wait until the big man sinks his teeth into this whole real estate mess; he will solve it lickety-split. He has ideas. Lots of them.

BB

#35 WTF on 02.15.21 at 4:34 pm

Come on GT, harsh. Comparing Pragmatic Government actions with Zoolander and his able minions who are….. “monitoring the situation”

Bwah ha haaaaaaa

#36 cramar on 02.15.21 at 4:36 pm

#28 Alberta Ed on 02.15.21 at 4:14 pm

I wonder if New Zealand would be willing to annex Canada. We could get a responsible federal government for a change, and have someplace warm to go in the winter.

——

Yeah! I have to admire the balls of the NZ PM. They have a covid outbreak of 3 people in one family, and she locks down the entire city of Auckland! So killing housing market speculation is not a big deal for her.

Please take a vacation to Canada this summer and teach our government how to run things!

#37 Linda on 02.15.21 at 4:37 pm

#28 ‘Alberta’ – If only! NZ is one gorgeous country. Not much flat land available though & housing isn’t exactly cheap, so can see why their government is enacting measures to keep prices down. Like every other nation the NZ government wants to keep their educated youth. Funny how people tend to move to where the opportunity is if they can’t get what they want at home.

#38 Shortymac on 02.15.21 at 4:40 pm

Honestly, I do think NZ has the right of it, we have to kill this massive asset inflation. Otherwise, whole generations will either be massively in debt or completely priced out of housing. The insanity has to end.

My suspicion is that most governments won’t do this because:

1) Older folks are more likely to vote and love the massive appreciation of their houses.

2) Construction is one of the few blue collar industries that cannot be outsourced, so governments encourage construction to supply jobs to the blue collar sector.

#39 Faron on 02.15.21 at 4:48 pm

#163 BillyBob on 02.15.21 at 6:37 am

Nice pics. Must be amazing to see from the air.

Have to say, too bad you didn’t get the eyes pin-sharp as a true professional would have.

#40 Comments! on 02.15.21 at 4:50 pm

#24 SimplyPut7 on 02.15.21 at 4:03 pm
I think we should just let the bubble pop on its own. No more government intervention.

When the money runs out or the price valuations get ridiculous like GameStop people will learn valuable lessons from the fall.

This may be happening already, the market has softened a bit, homes in my area take longer to sell, are selling with conditions and for full asking not sold over asking.

———————————————

Wow full asking of the highest prices ever and some with conditions??? What a nightmare that must be for sellers. Sounds like your area is collapsing before your very eyes.

Sorry man, I know you’re trying to be helpful.

But we all know that the government hasn’t intervened in any meaningful way to calm the markets and have actually brought in polices to actually help goose it. The stress test was a joke along with any foreign buyer policies.

The government’s policies need to be the following:

-no more insured mortgages for our gangster banks
-25% minimum down payments required that is not gifted
-major crack down on money laundering and shadow lending
-heavy taxes on flipped properties owned for less than 5 years
-controls on dirty realtor tactics and prosecution of offenders

Beyond that, then yes stay the heck out.

#41 Buford Wilson on 02.15.21 at 4:53 pm

Relax, Garth.

Our old friend Mr Market will look after it.

#42 Jen on 02.15.21 at 4:54 pm

I love Thompson, what a cutie. My dog, Charlie, is much more handsome but, hey, it’s still dog’s life.

We are teaching our daughter financial literacy skills (she’s 12) and we regularly talk about the out of control housing market. We fortunate to be in a detached home (purchased thanks to equity built in our started home) in the 416. Her solution? “You can build me a small home in the backyard.” Not a bad idea, kiddo. When will Toronto allow garden suites?

#43 alexinvestor on 02.15.21 at 4:56 pm

Didn’t our finance minister say that Canada can borrow lots because our rates are low ? I’m sure Tiff wouldn’t want to embarrass our finance minister by raising rates all of a sudden. And I don’t think the minority government will find fiscal prudence all of a sudden … too many hungry mouths to feed. It’s likely they will let inflation run while keeping interest rates low. Inflate the debt away.

House prices though will hit some limit, if it’s not approaching it already. Interest rates, are at their lows already, so from this point out real incomes have to rise to get even higher mortgages.

#44 pPrasseur on 02.15.21 at 5:01 pm

The welfare state is not sustainable and neither is this (governement/CMHC created) RE bubble.

If you don’t understand how the two are connected then nothing is cool!

Money printing is the last hurrah of the socialist nanny state.

Here in Quebec the health care system is in complete meltdown, already rationed before Covid, diagnostics, tests, procedures and surgeries are now behind by hundreds of thousand. Yet this is the most rapidly ageing society on the planet and demand will only intensify.

Connect the dots…

#45 NOSTRADAMUS on 02.15.21 at 5:02 pm

Question, why house prices going up so rapidly ???
Median, middle of the road houses are appreciating for reasons beyond those reported in todays blog.
A house that used to simply be a single family home is now a private residence, a multi office worksite, an online remote learning institution, a quarantine hotel, a Netflix movie theatre, and a prepper storage warehouse. Add the reasons up, maybe one size fits all. Or, “Never waste a lie, you never know when you will need it” Mark Twain.

#46 Dennis the Menace on 02.15.21 at 5:02 pm

DELETED

#47 Bdwy on 02.15.21 at 5:09 pm

#116 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 7:49 pm

…appreciation on hard and liquid assets may start rivalling employment income.

If a peep owns a decent house in Southern Ontario, and has a good sized nest egg on the go – gains on these may well have surpassed his 9-5 efforts in 2020.

__________
Passed that point 7 or so years ago in east van. Assessed RE up 225k this year. Very few east van types make that.

#48 CL on 02.15.21 at 5:10 pm

I don’t get it. The results of all of this should be so obvious. I wonder if the gov’t at all levels are like McDonalds and have a secret sauce that we don’t know the recipe to? or do they simply have their fingers and toes crossed?

As long as housing hangs on until after the election then the will be even less concerned.

Good for NZ for those changes. They knew what was going to happen and their position was forced. There was no escape other than to make those drastic changes.

Will they do it here? doubtful. The fed’s will simply forgive all personal debt to those that “chose” to swim in it.

#49 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 5:13 pm

Housing schmousing. Let the gamblers play in the property market casino if they are so inclined. “Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences”-Robert Louis Stevenson.

Is it too early to talk about the 2024 Presidential Election? Republican Govenor Ron Desantis’s name is being floated as a candidate for President in 2024.

O.k., back to real estate. Is the ‘Talented Mr. Brian Ripley” in the audience today? If so, does he know which neighbourhoods in the GTA are showing the most evidence of insanity, flipping, etc.? Brampton or Mississauga by any chance?

#50 JSS on 02.15.21 at 5:14 pm

Home prices are still dirt cheap in Edmonton. For the price of one house in Toronto or Vancouver, you can buy four in Edmonton – one in each quadrant of the city.

#51 Brett in Calgary on 02.15.21 at 5:20 pm

That video is funny, “I wanna flip that…” Pretty much sums up society though. Thanks for the chuckle.

#52 tkid on 02.15.21 at 5:22 pm

Garth, I share your worry. Manhattan 1 bedroom condos are a far better deal than Toronto condos. The price increases are very worrying.

I want out of Ontario. The province is crazy. I don’t want to be around for the fallout when the new mortgagors cannot afford to renew the mortgage, or can’t afford to commute because the boss is threatening them with layoffs or smaller salaries to remain home. I don’t want to be here when their parents try to retire and can’t because they gave every last penny to junior to buy a house.

But I need my current job. My finances won’t quite stretch to cover early retirement. Gotta keep slinging IT hash. But if my employer would allow it (and they aren’t) I’d be winging out to Calgary tomorrow.

I can pick up a one bed condo for $100k. Two beds from $125k. Townhomes for $300k. Rent is a song! Yeah, Calgary is going the way of Detroit, but better Calgary than hanging around for the implosion of the GTA.

Hell, I can buy a two bed in Vegas for $125k. There’s a house in Newfoundland closely located to the shoreline going for $25k. I could live there in the summer, go visit Vegas in the winter. Anything but Ontario.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 5:24 pm

@#36 Cramar
“Yeah! I have to admire the balls of the NZ PM……

….Please take a vacation to Canada this summer and teach our government how to run things!

++++

Ironic that a female PM has bigger cojones than our PM.

Highly doubtful that the “brilliant” intelligentsia in charge are willing to be taught anything….

#54 catralph on 02.15.21 at 5:40 pm

Do it here and stop this madness

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 02.15.21 at 5:43 pm

DELETED

#56 Long-Time Lurker on 02.15.21 at 5:44 pm

DELETED

#57 Long-Time Lurker on 02.15.21 at 5:45 pm

>See Vladimir Putin at 14 seconds!

PAUL McCARTNEY IN MOSCOW RED SQUARE RUSSIA.

BACK IN THE USSR

344,716 views•Jan 11, 2009

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw0kJf_15QE

#58 Shirl Clarts on 02.15.21 at 5:50 pm

Garth, would you advise a DIY investor to Sell some Unregistered investments to “Top up” an underfunded TFSA?

Seems like a no brainer, right?

#59 Don Guillermo on 02.15.21 at 5:57 pm

#8 TurnerNation on 02.15.21 at 3:05 pm

Brazil – the citizens still want their carnivals and took to the streets.
****************************************
May not be Rio but Mazatlán puts on a damn fine Carnaval. Unfortunately 2021 had to be cancelled. Video below is Carnaval 2019.

https://youtu.be/9yMb5NeuFJY

Now what will they do with Semana Moto (largest motorcycle gathering in Latin American).

or Semana Santa (Easter week)

https://mazatlanvisit.com/photos/mazatlan-90744-easter-week.jpg

#60 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 6:00 pm

“Which neighbourhoods in the GTA are showing the most evidence of insanity, flipping, etc.? #49 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 5:13 pm

and

“For the price of one house in Toronto or Vancouver, you can buy four in Edmonton” #50 JSS on 02.15.21 at 5:14 pm

The Toronto RE Board breaks it down into local areas:
https://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2101.pdf

My 6 big city chart shows the SF Detached price differences:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

Yes… 4:1 Edmonton vs Toronto, almost 5 vs Vancouver.

But look at the 2nd chart on that page:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#ex-Van+Tor

The average of the summed prices of Vancouver + Calgary + Toronto condos is 19% higher than a median priced Montreal SFD.

Ex-Calgary it was 49% higher.

In FEB 2018 the metrics were 73% and 106% higher respectively!

In January 2021 Single Family Detached Sellers in:
Vancouver wanted 2.6 condos in trade
Calgary wanted or 2.2 condos in trade
Toronto wanted 2.3 condos in trade

The “improvement” that sits on the land is a wasting asset. If serviced land is so valuable, shouldn’t the ratio be 1 house equals at least 4 condos?

Condos are very overpriced as a portfolio investment. Perhaps as a pied-à-terre they make sense for the jet setters.

#61 AlbertaGuy in AB on 02.15.21 at 6:00 pm

2019 City Property Tax Assessment $240k
2020 City Property Tax Assessment $220k
2021 City Property Tax Assessment $208k

#62 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.15.21 at 6:01 pm

The Plan?

There’s only one plan that matters – SAVE TORONTOWE!

WINTER STORM HEADED FOR THE GTA!

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

Everyone, including all your Porsche-driving helpers and the Amazons, Garth, must bring a shovel to the GTA right away! Same goes for everyone reading this blog. Get off your couches in all those non-important wannabe fake cities in Canada, and bring your shovels and road salt to the centre of our universe!

Canada’s only important city is about to overwhelmed by at least 15cm of snow.

OMG!!!

Snowflakes upon snowflakes! No greater crisis is happening anywhere in the world!

Call in the army!

How will GTAHoles get out to buy ammo for their guns to shoot each other if the roads and sidewalks are snow-covered?

How will Toronturds boost their self-esteem and avoid suicidal thoughts if their internet goes down and they can’t surf MLS or Zillow? They’re already depressed enough after Saturday’s deplorable performance by the Make Believes.

Forget the ridiculous housing debt there. Toronthole is already 1.6 Trillion X more important than the rest of Canada. We must all sacrifice ourselves to save it!

NOTHING ELSE MATTERS!

Oh, the humanity!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ad9tholMEM

#63 calguy on 02.15.21 at 6:05 pm

Here in Calgary, some malls are slow and it looks like some going out of business. Some stores are empty. But still homes seem to be selling. Prices are much more reasonable compared to Vancouver and Toronto, but with the recent cold snap, I’m not sure if it is worth it.

The government won’t do anything to housing just as they have done nothing with vaccines. They keep putting on restrictions and border controls to put up a smokescreen from the real issues of vaccine distribution. Watch the media critically and start demanding better action from MLA’s, and MP’s. Many people are fed up for “following the rules” for almost a year. Comrade Horgan wants to close the land border between Alberta and BC, yet they still have flights from India, China, Korea etc arriving daily. Too much hypocrisy and political games going on. I honestly don’t blame anyone that goes on vacation – people need a break and are tired from this mess. On the other side is all the people not spending money yet still working are looking to real estate to get in to the market or move up.

#64 Peter from New Westminster on 02.15.21 at 6:10 pm

Ottawa can and will easily keep housing going up, buy with confidence people. At the slightest hint of a correction in prices the immigration taps will be ripped wide open.

Buy with confidence.

#65 david on 02.15.21 at 6:19 pm

Garth, the NZ loan to value limits are not applied at the loan level. they are portfolio rules – e.g., only 20% of a lenders loans in a period can have a loan to value over 80%. same with the other LTV rules for investors. you are overstating how much you need for a down payment in NZ. and by the way, they LOOSENED their rules at the beginning of covid And the LTV limits don’t apply to new construction.

#66 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 6:26 pm

#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

???????????????????????????????

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!
— ——-

Yeah well, in southern Ontario empty cornfields are selling for 600k, so I think I’ll stick with skid wood. One of my bro’s had a nice woodlot, but it just got too valuable to keep for firewood and taking walks. You know how it goes…

#67 Q-Trump to Q-Quacks to Quakistan on 02.15.21 at 6:27 pm

Japan’s been stimulating its economy for 20 years and still very low inflation if any at all,,, could the rest of the G7 nations be stuck in the same…

#68 Dave on 02.15.21 at 6:32 pm

So simple to ban foreign ownership and make people pay far more taxes on second homes, so housing becomes shelter instead of an investment, but the government continues to do the opposite, making it very bleak for most people under 40.

#69 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 6:52 pm

#61 AlbertaGuy in AB on 02.15.21 at 6:00 pm

Yeah, Calgary housing is either a mess or a value proposition:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

#70 Faron on 02.15.21 at 7:01 pm

#67 Q-Trump to Q-Quacks to Quakistan on 02.15.21 at 6:27 pm

Japan’s been stimulating its economy for 20 years and still very low inflation if any at all,,, could the rest of the G7 nations be stuck in the same…

No. Look at commodity prices. Look at housing. Look at dollar weakness against the yuan. Add in a tetch of COVID price increase to offset PPE and you have prices increasing for most things. Finally, the bond market is pricing in inflation as well. It’s coming.

#71 Tim123 on 02.15.21 at 7:04 pm

I don’t know how many of the house flippers are also trading in the equity markets, but if they are, then they are probably making money at a fast rate there too, so the bubble could inflate more. If people are dependent on their salaries only then they probably are all ready priced out of Toronto and Vancouver for single dwellings. I thought some common sense would have taken place where people aren’t mindlessly paying any price to get in the real estate markets but I was wrong. Its going to be a painful correction for people who have just bought real estate in the last few years.

#72 Spaccone on 02.15.21 at 7:20 pm

I don’t believe most people change in their defects/obsessions, they just quiet down their thoughts while doubling down on their resolve or craziness. Politics, house-horniness, not listening to advice, poor money management, etc.
In terms of house-hornies doubling down, the recent meme I see coming online in my circles is buying condos/other property for your toddlers. I don’t want to live in this continent anymore.

#73 jal on 02.15.21 at 7:20 pm

You are specially fortunate because ….
What are the Options for most people
– no mom or granny bank
– no help possible from family
– family income less than $75,000
– 2 car loans
– 2 student loan
– no social life (solitary consumption of drug or booze)
– renting in a slum housing
– dumpster diving for luxuries
– buying second hand clothes
– maxed out credit cards
– poor job security
– saving are less than 1 month of rent
– cannot afford to start a family

Fortunate
– no pain, no health problems, happy

#74 Canadian Moose on 02.15.21 at 7:23 pm

I love it, T-Bird the dog is living the life. So deserved by him and all the dogs of the world. Brightened my day!

#75 Two-thirds on 02.15.21 at 7:24 pm

Correct call, that no one will heed.

Covid-induced house nesting mania vs. Logical argument anchored in prudence and economics.

Gee, I wonder which one wins?

“The government should do something.”

Sure, pour cold water on the only thing keeping people feeling some degree of security and stability, right before a widely anticipated election.

Good luck with that!

Kanada will “build back better”, once demolition of its economy and old-style society is complete.

Good gravy, I sound like TurnerNation now…

#76 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:25 pm

#5 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 2:54 pm

You didn’t see my posts about the electricity problem in Texas right now, did you?

Innovation is great but it cannot be forced. It evolves. That is why telephones had wires for years.

My bets, in the sphere of moving away from fossil fuels, is nuclear. Wind and solar isn’t going to do it.

#77 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:33 pm

#58 Shirl Clarts on 02.15.21 at 5:50 pm
Garth, would you advise a DIY investor to Sell some Unregistered investments to “Top up” an underfunded TFSA?

Seems like a no brainer, right?

—————————-

My opinion would be “do it”. You may have to pay some taxes now but you should be able to transfer the assets “in kind”. But after that they are tax free.

#78 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:39 pm

#66 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 6:26 pm
#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

???????????????????????????????

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!
— ——-

Yeah well, in southern Ontario empty cornfields are selling for 600k, so I think I’ll stick with skid wood. One of my bro’s had a nice woodlot, but it just got too valuable to keep for firewood and taking walks. You know how it goes…

————————————

There is only so much skid wood. When we all decide to burn it, there won’t be even a fraction of what is required. Not to mention what the air quality would be if everyone was burning wood. I can tell by smell if one of my neighbors has a fire going so I grab a beer and a chair and go visit. If they all had a fire going it would be like being at a camp ground. When you drive into Kananaskis, you can often see a cloud of smoke, and there are maybe around 600 firepits spread out over many hundreds of acres.

#79 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 7:40 pm

@#60 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 6:00 pm

Your are a gem. Thank you for your service to this blog.

#80 Linda on 02.15.21 at 7:45 pm

OK Garth. Stop posting Zillow! I nearly snorted wine out of my nose:)

#81 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:46 pm

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 3:30 pm
@#190 Faron
“A hot arctic eats away at yet more multi-year sea ice which is becoming irreversible. Yes, that does matter.”

+++

Yep. Temps climbing in the Arctic faster than the lower regions.
Nothing like melting permafrost to fart out billions of tons of trapped , frozen methane to really get things cooking…..

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/sios-sda052119.php

—————————————

Methane has a fairly short half life in the atmosphere before it converts to 1 CO2 and 2 H2O. The CO2 might be a problem. But if methane were we would have all been dead long ago because every animal, even the ants, farts methane, especially you Mr. Fartz.

#82 AM in MN on 02.15.21 at 7:51 pm

NZ only recently banned foreigners from buying up RE.

Time will tell if it was the right move. A leftist govt. taking direct steps to cool the housing market on behalf of locals.

The question is, how about just increase supply, especially of condos in the city? There are a lot of people who were making good money building these buildings, much like Vancouver, and now they won’t be.

NZ, like Canada, was selling it’s relative political stability as a commodity to people from the less trustworthy places in the world. When travel opens up again, Vancouver will see a flood of money from HK & Taiwan, should it be turned away?

As it was, if you wanted to buy a $20M Penthouse on the top of the food court at OakRidge Mall, you had to go to HK to the sales office. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Have a buddy with a factory of 60 people selling furnishings to new condos, never been busier, can’t find enough workers. Another buddy RE agent sold 59 out of 60 properties at $1+ in 2016 to foreigners, made out like a bandit, is that a bid thing?

Winners and losers will be made, but in general making everyone a loser isn’t good policy.

#83 The sad part of the $ printing. on 02.15.21 at 7:55 pm

At least in 2008 the liquidity put into the economy was put to creating jobs by infastructure projects ..jobs. I understand the CERB was needed but now they need to get jobs growing somehow.

When they talk about GDP projections growing, thats not organic GDP. It includes the money printed into the economy. Its complete BS. Driving interest rates down is not a solution to anything.

People are not stupid and are exciting the devalued $$. Bitcoin will go to 100k as huge corporations convert $$ for Bitcoin. I love it.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.21 at 7:57 pm

Had our yearly family Chinese New Year hot pot feast.
Succulent Alaska king crab, sweet tiger prawns, thinly sliced Wagu beef and Mongolian lamb slices.
Yummy.
Despite the virus, we were lucky and had a prosperous and healthy year.
All my family and friends in China are coming out of the pandemic unscathed and are looking forward to good fortunes in the Year of the Ox.
Gung Ho Fat Boy.

#85 cuke and tomato picker on 02.15.21 at 7:58 pm

Excellent blog today and it appears that New Zealand has got it right. A few years ago we did a two week cruise around
New Zealand and we went on excursions to every major
city and before we left the ship every bag was searched in great detail for fruit, food etc. Wealthy people on south Vancouver Island are worried that their grand kids will not be able to afford a house here.

#86 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:59 pm

#161 NSNG on 02.15.21 at 6:06 am
#117 Faron on 02.14.21 at 7:59 pm

#87 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 6:01 pm

That said, gas in the Vancouver area has gone from $1.20 to $1.40 in a couple months.

Maybe have a look at the price of oil over that period. Oil’s up more than 20% while your pump price is up only 16%. Inflationary pressure, yes but hardly debasement of the currency.

That was an example. Along with housing prices, have you looked at your grocery bill lately? Mine is up about the same percentage as gas and I know my eating habits have not changed.

Even the McDonald’s chicken muffin went from $2.50 to $3 the last time I drove through there.

———————————-

Food is mostly energy. Fertilizer, irrigation, tractors, processing, transport, cooking. The sun is really only responsible for the carbon capture part at this point, which makes up about 10% of the total energy consumed.

#87 JJ on 02.15.21 at 8:18 pm

Realtor in Surrey told me today that a tear down in North Surrey will be $2 million+ by december.

#88 Blobby on 02.15.21 at 8:20 pm

The problem with doing any of those things in Canada:

People here seem to think home ownership is a right – and is guaranteed to keep going up. Those things would be “the government preventing me from buying a home”.

Which, despite being needed, will cause people to shift their votes come election time… And there’s likely going to be an election later this year…

#89 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 8:21 pm

#78 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:39 pm
#66 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 6:26 pm
#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

???????????????????????????????

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!
— ——-

Yeah well, in southern Ontario empty cornfields are selling for 600k, so I think I’ll stick with skid wood. One of my bro’s had a nice woodlot, but it just got too valuable to keep for firewood and taking walks. You know how it goes…

————————————

There is only so much skid wood. When we all decide to burn it, there won’t be even a fraction of what is required. Not to mention what the air quality would be if everyone was burning wood.
—- ——

Have on look on Kijiji for “free skids”, there are more and more coming all the time. It’s a globalized economy, and there are mountains of wood being imported underneath all these imported goods. Where I work gets 10 skids per week ranging in size from 4×8’ to 6×12’, 200 – 400 lbs ea. Boss begs us to haul it away as he has to pay to get the stuff hauled off, 3 of us are feeding off the pile but it still grows.

I think burning wood is on the decline as primary heat, so I’m not too worried about everyone suddenly wanting to burn the stuff. NG is cheap, wood is work.

Air quality is an issue. I burn in a “rocket stove”, and it’s zero smoke, but we’ve all seen the plumes of blue coming out of chimneys. But again, it’s probably on the decline as a main heat source. Some just love doing wood and will continue, but more seem to want wood heat as a supplement for those -20+ nights, or for “ambiance” purposes. Wood heat is romanticized a bit these days.

IMHO, a wood stove can’t be beat on a frigid night, nothing warms you to the core like 60-70k btu’s of pure radiant heat. It turns everything near it into a heater!

I’ll probably end up with propane with wood supplement. My house is old, and it needs all the btu’s it can get when temps drop to sub -20.

#90 Arctic Globetrotter on 02.15.21 at 8:22 pm

Re: #19 crowdedelevatorfartz, Faron

Some other perspectives to consider..

https://electroverse.net/33-bullet-points-proving-global-warming-is-caused-by-the-sun-not-co2/

https://financialpost.com/opinion/patrick-moore-de-bunking-climate-and-other-varieties-of-alarmism

https://townhall.com/columnists/vijayjayaraj/2021/01/17/record-cold-of-2021-reminds-us-be-wary-of-climate-predictions-and-energy-priorities-n2583143

https://cornwallalliance.org/2021/02/healthy-polar-bears-and-thriving-tigers-the-common-climate-tale/

https://electroverse.net/eleven-years-ago-today/

https://electroverse.net/earth-cooled-rapidly-over-the-past-2-months/

#91 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:24 pm

#76 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:25 pm

My bets, in the sphere of moving away from fossil fuels, is nuclear. Wind and solar isn’t going to do it.

———–

Agreed. I expect a combo of lower draw end-use electrics, nuclear for electrical generation, and geothermal run on nuclear electric for heat.

Logically, with the options currently available, that is the only way to cut carbon generation without any inconvenience whatsoever. Which, in the end, is the only solution peoplekind will accept.

Of course, there is no other option than fossil fuels for many industries: rail, ocean shipping, jet flight, remote heavy construction, bitumen.

This is only a temporary solution again, though, since uranium supplies are limited.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.21 at 8:31 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 5:24 pm
@#36 Cramar
“Yeah! I have to admire the balls of the NZ PM……

….Please take a vacation to Canada this summer and teach our government how to run things!

++++

Ironic that a female PM has bigger cojones than our PM
—————————
Typical Macho tough talk.
Mentally, women are much tougher than men.
During WWII, Germany lost over 5million man.
And most of the ones that survived had PTDS.
The country was in rubble, and it was up to women to rebuild the country, brick by brick.
They were called “Truemmer Weiber”, rubble broads.
I was brought up by one.
Tough as nails.

#93 Alphonse Kehaulic on 02.15.21 at 8:32 pm

I posted several months ago and wrote that 28 days lockdown is symbolic: 28 = Two 8s, represents double infinity, i.e. in perpetuity, in other words no end to the lockdowns. Rolling lockdowns. Lockdowns whenever they call it.
I guess “2 weeks to flatten the curve” didn’t work out for us. Maybe they meant “2 eights to flatten the herd”?

Thank goodness summer’s coming. I can almost taste those July 1st brats on the Weber. Surely with all these precautions taken and all these nonessential small businesses gutted for our safety, we’ll have won the war by then, no?

Speaking of war, re Bill Gates on the global green reset: “It’s an all-out effort, like a world war, but it’s us against greenhouse gases.” Hmmm…….we humans exhale carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.
Mr Gates meant it’s a war against fossil fuels, right?

#94 Rochdale GM on 02.15.21 at 8:40 pm

Thompson is an absolute beauty! I’m envious of the weird smelling cuddles.

Here’s a RE anecdote. Mid-December I go see my bank person (the red bank) cause why don’t we just put our 200K non reg in RE instead of paying rent. We’re 60 and 65. Bank person crunches some numbers says the house would cost $$$$ a month and I say “…but you”re amortizing over 30 years, I’m 65!.” She says, “O the banK doesn’t care about that, they just want everybody to buy houses.” I haven’t been back to the bank since.

#95 rknusa on 02.15.21 at 8:52 pm

what me worry?

Bank of Canada Governor Isn’t Worried About a Housing Bubble

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/bank-of-canada-governor-isn-t-worried-about-a-housing-bubble

#96 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:55 pm

Our daughter has been in NZ for almost three years now- her visa was good for 2 years, but the country has been automatically extending visas throughout covid because, among other things, they need the existing workers to stay.

We visited for 6 weeks last year and very much enjoyed it. We hiked a few of the multiday tracks on the South Island and enjoyed the alpine country… but found it oddly devoid of wildlife. In BC, the high alpine areas are full of bears, mountain goats, sheep, deer, etc… In NZ, there would be wooly domestic sheep and goats and very rarely an introduced tahr or chamois on the cliffs.

It’s nice camping with no large predators. Although the Kea alpine parrots are crazy destructive, at least they won’t kill you.

Other cool things: Galaxid fish. Found only in NZ. They spawn in the lakes and ocean, and their offspring- called whitebait- are a translucent Gollum-looking thing that crawls upstream over waterfalls and precipices until it reaches a place it likes. You’d think something so unique would be protected, but nope- whitebait netting at the rivermouths was in full swing when we were there, and we feasted on whitebait sandwiches. The hundreds of little eyes turned my wife off, but I found the little fellas delicious and downed more than my share.

And freshwater eels. Huge- some over 2m long.

And miniature penguins. They stay out all night and rocket back to the breeding ground in the night. One of the coolest things I’ve ever seen- a wave comes in, and when it recedes, there are dozens of 8 inch high penguins that look like tiny people clumsily sprinting up the beach, falling all over themselves.

And albatross breeding areas.

The only mammal native to New Zealand is one species of bat. Lots of crazy birds, though- almost all protected except the one that is doing well: the Pukakoe. Naturally, since there are lots of them, the farmers shoot the heck out of them.

The people and laws are laid back. Driving with an open beer is just fine. You can’t drive drunk, but that’s your business.

Could keep going, but it seems a little off-topic..

#97 AlMac on 02.15.21 at 9:04 pm

#30 Sail Away
Best comment of the year.

#98 Jesse D on 02.15.21 at 9:17 pm

In a universe without Garth, would that SNL skit exist?

#99 Habitt on 02.15.21 at 9:19 pm

#64 Peter. You nailed it. I wonder how that reaction will keep our carbon emissions down. Lol

#100 Mean on 02.15.21 at 9:27 pm

What ever happened to “Reversion to the mean”?

#101 Faron on 02.15.21 at 9:31 pm

#90 Arctic Globetrotter on 02.15.21 at 8:22 pm

Re: #19 crowdedelevatorfartz, Faron

Some other perspectives to consider..

Yeah, no. Not worth my or anyone’s time. These points have been debunked ad nauseam, time to move on. BTW, the earth isn’t flat either.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 9:33 pm

@#96 Sail Away
“And freshwater eels. Huge- some over 2m long.”

++++
I worked with a Kiwi and his stories of Kea’s stripping all the rubber off his truck windshield while he was away on a 4 day hike was hilarious.

And the eels…. he took great pleasure in horrifying tourists with bread crumbs, potato chips, whatever tossed into water they had just been swimming in ….that became a boiling caldron of ….feeding eels…… moo hoo haa haa haaaaaaa

#103 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? on 02.15.21 at 9:33 pm

Re: #176 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 10:03 am
@#171 Oakville Rocks! on 02.15.21 at 9:08 am

….As for Nenshi, he isn’t that popular here anymore and if he runs for Mayor this fall he won’t win. People are tired of his condescending comments.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nenshi doesn’t care, he got his work done for Flames owner Murray Edwards (Mount Polley mine disaster fame, who ran to the UK to hide right after the dam burst) by fleecing you Calgarians for a new hockey rink.
How much you want to bet Murray’s got a nice board seat for him since Calgary is on the hook for ~$300 million plus of HIS cost!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/arena-deal-finalized-1.5385406
So sick of the

#104 Faron on 02.15.21 at 9:40 pm

#81 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:46 pm

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 3:30 pm
@#190 Faron

One of the hottest periods in the earth’s history very likely was caused by methane. And even though the event was likely a one-off clathrate “burp” it caused a large enough disruption to be clearly evident in the stratigraphic record.

Regardless, if the rate of emission exceeds the rate of decomposition, the concentration will increase until the rates equalize. At present, that criterion is met, so the atmospheric concentration is increasing. When the Arctic thaws and as O+G keep leaking methane from wells, that concentration will continue to increase rapidly and be a problem.

As usual Nonplused, you are full of scheisse but pontificating as if you know what you are talking about.

#105 CalgaryCarGuy on 02.15.21 at 9:40 pm

Re the topic of burning wood for heat.
I’m the guy who lives in a diesel pusher near Bragg Creek Alberta. I have a miniature fireplace inside my coach that is burning the entire time I’m awake. I also have a large external fireplace buried in sand for heat exchange purposes with my coach that I only fire up in extreme cold. It has been burning for almost two weeks now. Like many out west here I had multiple days of below -25 and nights in hte mid minus 30’s. Coldest I saw was -36. A water line near a bay door froze so I had no water for three days. I finally got it thawed using an electric heater and nothing was broken thank goodness. I was surprised it froze actually as this coach has seen -41 before and didn’t freeze. I’ve burned lots of firewood, diesel and electricity in the last couple of weeks that’s for sure. It got up to -10 here today and felt like spring! Always an adventure.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 9:46 pm

@#92 Ponzie Prattle
“The country was in rubble, and it was up to women to rebuild the country, brick by brick.”

++++

Yes due to the fact that any able bodied German men and boys were probably still in P.O.W. camps or press ganged into heavy industry to rebuild the nation.

I’m sure earning a few dollars clearing the rubble clogged streets was better than the dreadful alternative “options” for earning money.

#107 Lead Paint on 02.15.21 at 9:48 pm

#52 tkid on 02.15.21 at 5:22 pm

You work in IT and can’t find a job that lets you work remotely? Doesn’t sound right…. we just hired a guy who lives in Alberta, our office is in TO and I live in Vancouver.

Are you good at what you do? Even Smoking Man got hired in California…

#108 Smokin' in the boys room on 02.15.21 at 9:50 pm

#96 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:55 pm

The people and laws are laid back. Driving with an open beer is just fine. You can’t drive drunk, but that’s your business.

________________________

Great. The cornerstone of any hip, liberal government. Open liquor and drinking while driving… Legally. Perfect!
Wait till Boy Blunder gets wind of that!

Until I heard about this, we were planning to visit, post pandemic.
I think we’ll pass on that idea!

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 9:51 pm

ahahahahaha
Toronto was winning 5-1 against Ottawa and Ottawa won in OT ….6-5
ahahahahaha

The Vancouver Canucks disease has infected them….snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

#110 Kothar on 02.15.21 at 10:08 pm

I remember visiting their Central bank in Wellington. They had $1 million on display in $50 bank notes that were taken out of circulation.

#111 Faron on 02.15.21 at 10:20 pm

#108 Smokin’ in the boys room on 02.15.21 at 9:50 pm

#96 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:55 pm

Until I heard about this, we were planning to visit, post pandemic.
I think we’ll pass on that idea!

Wait, really? You’ll skip a visit to a uniquely beautiful country because people may drink (a beer) and drive? Where do you live? The road to Renfrew is lined with Lucky cans. None of them are mine because I don’t toss them out the window!

Not into driving drunk, not even close, but sharing a beer on the road on a summer day is, IMO, one of the pleasures of life. But, maybe that’s the American in me.

BC liquor attitudes floor me. You can inject heroin at a safe site but if you dare open a beer on the beach in kits a bylaw officer will roll up on a 4 wheeler and ask you to dump it. Hate to think what would befall a woman who dared show her ankles.

#112 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 10:25 pm

#91 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:24 pm
#76 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:25 pm

My bets, in the sphere of moving away from fossil fuels, is nuclear. Wind and solar isn’t going to do it.

———–

Agreed. I expect a combo of lower draw end-use electrics, nuclear for electrical generation, and geothermal run on nuclear electric for heat.

Logically, with the options currently available, that is the only way to cut carbon generation without any inconvenience whatsoever. Which, in the end, is the only solution peoplekind will accept.

Of course, there is no other option than fossil fuels for many industries: rail, ocean shipping, jet flight, remote heavy construction, bitumen.

This is only a temporary solution again, though, since uranium supplies are limited.

———————————–

True, but thorium looks promising and there is enough of that so we don’t have to worry for a while.

Interesting tidbit, the reason we have uranium reactors and not thorium is because thorium does not produce the plutonium they wanted for the bomb.

#113 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 10:29 pm

#91 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:24 pm

PS rail can be electrified. Russia did the whole Trans-Siberian railway and most of Europe is electrified. Large ships could probably use nuclear too as do submarines and aircraft carriers. But ya, there are some uses where it is hard to see petroleum being phased out entirely.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.21 at 10:53 pm

#100 Mean on 02.15.21 at 9:27 pm
What ever happened to “Reversion to the mean”?
——————-
Good question.
For this to happen, the underlying data must be normally (bell shaped) distributed.
Obviously, RE particularly in Vancouver, is not normal.

#115 S.Bby on 02.15.21 at 11:09 pm

#95 rknusa

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. – Upton Sinclair

#116 Al on 02.15.21 at 11:27 pm

“solved my Zillow lusting by buying a 700k house and putting myself and partner in half a mil debt! Yay”

Where is this mythical 700K SFH in Victoria proper?

#117 cramar on 02.15.21 at 11:29 pm

#20 TurnerNation on 02.15.21 at 3:42 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/7641169/mississauga-condo-african-variant-covid-19-coronavirus/
All residents of Mississauga condo to be tested after South African COVID-19 variant confirmed

—————

This is just going to provide confirmation to those who are abandoning the downtown areas for the 905. Let me outta the germy confined area of a nightmare highrise, for the wide-open spaces of the burbs!

#118 Ed on 02.15.21 at 11:48 pm

It was fine to have a brew while driving in the Yukon back in the day (70’s). Unfortunately its not as civilized anymore, full of Eastern creeps & bums etc.

#119 Enigma on 02.15.21 at 11:53 pm

Interesting to hear stories from WW2 … my grandparents lost their house in the inner city – got bombed out. Grandma and her four kids (two toddlers) had to move into a hiking cabin in the forest with no running water, grandpa was in the war. Later they got a piece of greenfield in exchange for their house outside the inner City. Everything was scarce, so they took their bicycles and headed into the bombed out City looking for building materials. Cleaned the stones one by one with a hammer and packed as many as they could carry into a rucksack and rode their bikes home. Did this for a few years regularly. On the weekend they went “hamstern” to the farms in the countryside to trade their leftover valuables for milk, eggs and other necessities. My grandma gave all the food first to her kids, not that much left for herself. Then she lost one of them, the youngest because of malnutrition. She never emotionally recovered from the war and lived a withdrawn live. My grandpa came home and had been shot at. Couldn’t move his arm up anymore but had still strength enough in it to hold on and use his hands. Was a carpenter and very street smart guy. Figured out techniques to continue his job, like grabbing a nail with his bad arm, using his other arm to put the arm in place and then grabbing the hammer to nail it in. He was tough but never talked about what happened. They threw nothing away, all was valuable and their garden was all veggies and fruit. He was a great provider and she was the bestest grandma ever, but still damaged people.

But hey Ponzius … the notion “weiber” please …. you are not that old, aren’t you?

#120 Shirl Clarts on 02.15.21 at 11:58 pm

#77 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 7:33 pm
#58 Shirl Clarts on 02.15.21 at 5:50 pm
Garth, would you advise a DIY investor to Sell some Unregistered investments to “Top up” an underfunded TFSA?

Seems like a no brainer, right?

—————————-

My opinion would be “do it”. You may have to pay some taxes now but you should be able to transfer the assets “in kind”. But after that they are tax free.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thanks Nonplused. Yeah, seems logical to pay a smaller CG tax now rather than a larger one later.

#121 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 12:13 am

#108 Smokin’ in the boys room on 02.15.21 at 9:50 pm
#96 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 8:55 pm

The people and laws are laid back. Driving with an open beer is just fine. You can’t drive drunk, but that’s your business.

————–

Great. The cornerstone of any hip, liberal government. Open liquor and drinking while driving… Legally. Perfect!
Wait till Boy Blunder gets wind of that!

Until I heard about this, we were planning to visit, post pandemic.

I think we’ll pass on that idea!

—————

Probably a good idea to stay away. I’ll be cruising with a beer in hand trying to figure out how to get through double lane roundabouts going the opposite direction of ours due to coriolis effect.

#122 Nonplused on 02.16.21 at 12:51 am

#175 Penny Henny on 02.15.21 at 9:34 am
Hey Garth can you please tell Nonplussed to shut up.

Thank you.

Or maybe he can start his own blog.

—————————

What did I ever do to you? And does your mouse not have a scroll wheel? That’s how I handle TurnerNation but I am not about to ask he be removed, some people reply to him which means some people are reading his comments. Some people respond to my comments as well, meaning they read them. Faron even takes time to dream up creative insults.

Anyway nobody is forcing you to read my comments or any comments at all.

#123 calgaryPhantom on 02.16.21 at 2:33 am

“The video is unavailable in your country”

FYI- your blog dogs are spread all across globe.

#124 Wrk.dover on 02.16.21 at 3:49 am

#66 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 6:26 pm
#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

???????????????????????????????

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!
— ——-

Yeah well, in southern Ontario empty cornfields are selling for 600k, so I think I’ll stick with skid wood. One of my bro’s had a nice woodlot, but it just got too valuable to keep for firewood and taking walks. You know how it goes…

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I’ll find a new dog to flog, your reply was too despondent. My wife’s 40 acre, half bog tract was priced equivalent to a new Camaro back then in 1980. Still is.

I boldly exited Ontario with very little the year prior because I couldn’t afford to be poor there. I knew for certain even then, that within two years returning could not be an option. Priced out.

Ontario is a constantly appreciating perpetual motion machine, dining on peoples souls, garnished with debt.

I’m proud of my life, and what I’ve done with it.
I made the rock bottom minimum to get tooled up, and we’ve prospered with all of my time which that weak effort did not require.

Bills, who needs them? Taxed earnings buy taxed goods.

Money made off property gets spent off property.

Use your talents mending homestead stuff full time and give your wife the esteem of being the breadwinner until 55 with her Govt job. See what I did there?

When the ducks are all lined up, the single income piles up.

OAS & CPP ROCK! If you pre-position for it properly.

When not if, the DBP fails, we’re good.

#125 willworkforpickles on 02.16.21 at 6:28 am

People are largely deceiving themselves if they think inflating out of debt is the coming solution.
That ship has sailed.

#126 willworkforpickles on 02.16.21 at 6:32 am

Inflation is indeed coming…just not the sort that pay’s the bills.

#127 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 7:09 am

Nonplused, good points about thorium, nuclear powered boats and electrified rail. The tech has existed for a long time and it sounds feasible. Not areas I have much knowledge in, though.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 7:42 am

@#110 Kothar
“I remember visiting their Central bank in Wellington. They had $1 million on display in $50 bank notes that were taken out of circulation.”

++++

Reminds me of Lotto Canada back in the late 1970’s.
They made a display with $1,000,000.00 worth of gold bars, wafers, coins , etc. and sent it on a publicity “tour” around Canada to drum up ticket sales for …..

“Super Lotto”…. “Yes, you too, could be a millionaire”

Back when houses were $50-70k……..

#129 Guy on 02.16.21 at 8:31 am

So the pregnant wife and I, who are both professionals have managed to save up 250k for a down payment.
We want to leave the condo we’re in and buy a detached house.

We can afford one million for a house, but only want to spend $900k as we don’t want to buy at our max.

There was a two bedroom bungalow in Tottenham, five year old house.
Listed for 825k
We made an offer for 860k only to see our offer was the lowest of five
Went back with 947.5, and got outbid.

The sellers are now taking their property off the market in hopes of getting over a million when they relist in two weeks.

This market is terrible, we are now unable to find a decent house for us to start our family thanks to the speculation investors.

Not sure I want to have my kid raised in a condo which we sacrificed to live in to help save money.

This whole real estate market is not made for first time home buyers.
I don’t want to go to the bank of mom & dad for an extra $100-200k to help us secure a property, but as time goes by this looks like our only option.

#130 LP on 02.16.21 at 8:35 am

#119 Enigma on 02.15.21 at 11:53 pm

It’s hard to read about tough people like your grandparents only to realize how un-tough I am. It makes me ashamed.

F73ON

#131 Guelph Guru on 02.16.21 at 9:03 am

The solution is simple.
Less govt. Let Mr. Market rule. Have a reliable currency.
Who am I kidding? Don’t think will see it in my lifetime.

#132 COVID Variant Math on 02.16.21 at 9:05 am

Does anyone have any REAL data (not estimates, projections or media conjecture) on how deadly the UK or other variants are?

I haven’t seen any real numbers ascribed to the death rate on the new variants, which leads me to wonder if the variants, although more contagious, are actually less lethal.

In today’s hyper-catastrophic media environment where every piece of bad news is amplified and breathlessly celebrated, the lack of hard data on COVID variant deaths makes me think that it’s a classic case of the dog not barking.

And maybe the Variants are less deadly and have evolved to be Natures own vaccination against the deadly strain?

Comments please.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 9:17 am

@#129 Guy
“I don’t want to go to the bank of mom & dad for an extra $100-200k to help us secure a property, but as time goes by this looks like our only option.”

++++

Have you learned nothing reading this blog…
The kid would be happy living in a cardboard box as long as Mom and Dad are there.
If you’re so hung up on living in a house….rent one.
Your wife will be on Mat Leave…. reducing the combined income.
Interest rates are rising. Count on it.
Buy after this ridiculous market deflates.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 9:24 am

Hmmmmm
Perhaps those “secret site” rumors were true?

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/welcome-to-the-hotel-of-last-resort-a-government-run-quarantine-facility-where-you-really-dont-want-to-be

Little Potato’s version of The War Measures Act?

#135 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 9:37 am

#124 Wrk.dover on 02.16.21 at 3:49 am
#66 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 6:26 pm
#17 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 3:27 pm
#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

Don’t own a woodlot? Cut a cheque!
— ——-

Yeah well, in southern Ontario empty cornfields are selling for 600k, so I think I’ll stick with skid wood.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I’ll find a new dog to flog, your reply was too despondent. My wife’s 40 acre, half bog tract was priced equivalent to a new Camaro back then in 1980. Still is.

I boldly exited Ontario with very little the year prior because I couldn’t afford to be poor there. I knew for certain even then, that within two years returning could not be an option. Priced out.

Ontario is a constantly appreciating perpetual motion machine, dining on peoples souls, garnished with debt.
_______

Not despondent, just reality. If you didn’t already own a woodlot here 20+ years ago, then no woodlot for you. Speculation is rife all along the 401 corridor from London to Kingston, and all of the land for sale is priced for development, it’s too expensive for anything else.

We were lucky enough to get up and running here before everything got stupid – so life has actually been very affordable, and our financial goals are in decent shape. Retirement for us is going to be ~20K/yr COL for the basics, and incomes via CPP + OAS (X2) + proceeds of B+DP, and 1 DBP. It should be plenty.

It is true though. After only 20 years, we can’t do what we did back when we started out in this area. We bought for 1.37X income, 4 acres, 2 barns, pond, and 1870 farmhouse that needed a lot of work. No way to get that here now for 1.37X, try more like 6-7X or even more.

If Ms. IH and I were just starting out today with the same plan as we had then, we’d have to move north a ways to make it happen. Totally doable, but I wonder how long before this area too, will get stupid.

Maybe the future of Southern Ontario is the formation of an invisible triangle extending from London to Kingston, and up to Bancroft where folks just starting out in life mysteriously “disappear”…

#136 Armpit on 02.16.21 at 9:37 am

If Real Estate is listed at a price and that price is met, there should be Regulations to force the sale.

If it’s an Auction – then no reserved low price. Must be sold.

Also, there should be a 72 hour “cooling” period for any buyer to revoke the sale – due to the market frenzy.

Young People are doing what the Libs are doing… Spend Spend Spend like drunken sailors. (no offence meaning). And why Not???? It’s only money!!!

The Savers will have to bail them out…just as we have to for the government.

#137 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 9:45 am

#129 Guy on 02.16.21 at 8:31 am

“This whole real estate market is not made for first time home buyers.”

…“I don’t want to go to the bank of mom & dad for an extra $100-200k to help us secure a property, but as time goes by this looks like our only option.”
___

…and da pricea, she a go uppa.

#138 Dharma Bum on 02.16.21 at 9:53 am

@Winterpeg

The meme has been, and still is that house=wealth, even if it is not true when you crunch the numbers.
That meme persists in our psyche, and shapes government policies that in turn, fuel the real estate frenzy.
======================================

The illusion of home “ownership” passifies the masses. A docile and contented populace makes governments happy. As far as the government is concerned, an out of control housing market in which rabid buyers are plentiful is the least of the government’s concern. Houses for all!

#139 Bill on 02.16.21 at 9:57 am

Crowdy
A form of communism is full speed ahead.
Socks is very apparent in his actions fwd on this.
People that support him are funded by him or are very ignorant.

#140 FriedEggs on 02.16.21 at 10:00 am

Bitcoin up, Stocks up, Gold up, Houses up

World spiritual morals – tanking and decaying rapidly

#141 Dharma Bum on 02.16.21 at 10:19 am

@Work.Dover

I should have mentioned my wife’s three staggered deferred salary years off were the expenses that prevented any savings, pre her permanent Dharma Bumming/retirement.
———————————————————————-

When starting out in one’s working life, it’s a big unknown as to how things are gonna go. I wanted to retire before I even started working! It’s because I am an inherently lazy slug that loves leisure activities and cringes at the thought of working for the man. However, my pragmatic side forced me to be disciplined enough to work long enough to pay off a house, educate children, and support a family until the kids were financially independent.

If there were any serious hiccups along the way, Dharma Bumming may not have been doable. I guess I just got lucky. Partly. I was a cheap sunuvabich a lot of the time. I once heard on a “talk radio” show (on CFRB in the early 90’s) that one must make themselves “recession proof”. That resonated with me. I focused on making sure I had a safety stash, and that eventually grew into an investment portfolio. The practice was habit forming. It was a self-insurance policy for layoffs, firings, or resignations.

Fortunately, I never was forced to dip into it. Once my mortgage was paid off, I did take a sabbatical to travel the world. That was a real highlight of life.

I wasn’t ready financially for the Dharma Bum life yet, so I had to suck it up for another 7 years of work afterwards.

That was the worst 7 years of my life. Once you get a taste of freedom, it’s hard to go back into the forced labour camps. It was miserable.

The discipline and foresight in early life to save and invest, luck with not losing jobs throughout my career (I use the term loosely), and the magic of compounding, allowed me to fulfil my natural destiny of being a bum.

Sleeping in is my forte.

#142 mike from mtl on 02.16.21 at 10:23 am

#132 COVID Variant Math on 02.16.21 at 9:05 am

In today’s hyper-catastrophic media environment where every piece of bad news is amplified and breathlessly celebrated, the lack of hard data on COVID variant deaths makes me think that it’s a classic case of the dog not barking.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not proven at all to be any more dangerous than the ‘original’ one, the rest is media fear mongering and hyperbole. Though stands to reason the true original one from Wuhan may have been far more damaging/deadly than the successor that spread – we will never know due to the coverups.

Something that spreads more easily can appear to be more ‘deadly’ but that’s because it infects its core demographic in less time. So the serious cases and deaths timeline gets compressed from 3 months to 1 month as a guess. As well 1 year in, we’ve learned more about how to deal with it better and unfortunate for them, the easy pickings are already passed.

Not discussed but think about it, you don’t necessarily need to import the variants directly. The same conditions that made the replication errors can occur anywhere. This happens with Influenza every year. Whether that be human>human or human>animal>human. Example we have ‘worrying cases’ of the variant in Gaspé.. right am I to believe folks from there have had any contact with someone from Brazil?

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 10:36 am

@#139 Bill

“A form of communism is full speed ahead.
Socks is very apparent in his actions fwd on this.”

+++

Apparently “Little Potato” is announcing a multi million ( hundreds) dollar gun “buy back” scheme today in Ottawa.
Whats a few hundred million more when you’ve already blown through 400 billion…..

This Liberal govt has economically ruined this country for generations to come.

#144 Bezengy on 02.16.21 at 10:56 am

#118 Ed on 02.15.21 at 11:48 pm
It was fine to have a brew while driving in the Yukon back in the day (70’s). Unfortunately its not as civilized anymore, full of Eastern creeps & bums etc.
——————————-
Very cool Elsa/Mayo/Keno FB group. Lots of great pics if anyone is interested.

#145 LP on 02.16.21 at 11:23 am

#129 Guy on 02.16.21 at 8:31 am

…“I don’t want to go to the bank of mom & dad for an extra $100-200k to help us secure a property, but as time goes by this looks like our only option.”
***************************
But do Mom and Dad get the option of not coughing up?
What if, worried about their retirement, they say no?
Do you accept the fact that, for the foreseeable future, you must rent? Is that the end of the world for you?

It worries me to read of some – perhaps not you – who believe that “someone else” must fund the purchase of a house that they deserve and want and must have. Sometimes it’s a bitter world and we don’t always get what we want when we want it.

Those people must learn to accept renting and begin to live their best lives however that reveals itself to be.

#146 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

#141 Dharma Bum on 02.16.21 at 10:19 am
___

So at what age did you pack it in and start the DB life?

I’ve never minded working that much, but I am getting disillusioned with what is happening in Canada on a few fronts. It’s hard to enjoy your job when your entire industry is slowly being destroyed by a PM the majority of my fellow Canadians just seem to love. I think I feel a bit like an Albertan might right now.

I have the urge to pack in the career, and start working on a small biz doing something enjoyable on a seasonal part time basis. I could mix a lot of fishing and ATV rides in with a career like that. Lots of upsides really, other than income would get cut right in half.

I look out over the Bay right now, and there is a little ice hut village out there populated by these lucky dudes who are retired. They’re all inside toasty warm feeding a woodstove, drinking rum and cokes, and pulling up Walleye and Pike one after the other. Some of these guys camp out there for days and do nothing but drink and fish. WTF am I doing here at work when I could be doing that all week!? Few to none of these dudes out there are wealthy, well off guys…

#147 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 12:32 pm

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.21 at 10:36 am

Apparently “Little Potato” is announcing a multi million ( hundreds) dollar gun “buy back” scheme today in Ottawa.
____

Yeah, buying a bunch of legally acquired and owned long guns from law abiding hunters and target shooters is really going to cut down on gun crime.

Like all the other guns still totally legal can’t do gun crime – only the ones on this Liberal list can do that.

Like an illegal gun can’t do gun crime.

Canada is just maxed out on stupid. Hundreds of millions spent for absolutely no results whatsoever even possible.

By the time it’s all said and done – it’ll cost a Billion like everything else Trudeau touches.

Just tack it on future Canadians’ Trillion dollar tab (and counting).

#148 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 12:48 pm

#146 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 11:55 am

I have the urge to pack in the career, and start working on a small biz doing something enjoyable on a seasonal part time basis. I could mix a lot of fishing and ATV rides in with a career like that. Lots of upsides really, other than income would get cut right in half.

———–

There are lots of upsides to having your own business, especially if you are your own product- meaning your skills are in demand. Can you contract back to your current employer?

Heck, put all those bulldozers to work. Lawn care, landscaping and snow removal can be lucrative when managed conscientiously.

You might be surprised about that whole ‘part-time’ and ‘income cut’ business. Do you need some startup funding? I know a guy, but he’s cutthroat, so don’t take it if unnecessary.

#149 Damifino on 02.16.21 at 1:00 pm

Chris Selley in the National Post today made exactly comment I wished to make today, but rather more succinctly than I might have…

“Canada really doesn’t matter on the world stage, and the parties that govern it care far more about exaggerating their own carefully branded efforts at improving the world than actually intensifying those efforts or making any big improvements.”

Bingo!! Never has the need been greater for adults in Ottawa. Never has there been less chance of that happening.

#150 Russ on 02.16.21 at 1:04 pm

COVID Variant Math on 02.16.21 at 9:05 am
Does anyone have any REAL data (not estimates, projections or media conjecture) on how deadly the UK or other variants are?

I haven’t seen any real numbers ascribed to the death rate on the new variants, which leads me to wonder if the variants, although more contagious, are actually less lethal.

In today’s hyper-catastrophic media environment where every piece of bad news is amplified and breathlessly celebrated, the lack of hard data on COVID variant deaths makes me think that it’s a classic case of the dog not barking.

And maybe the Variants are less deadly and have evolved to be Natures own vaccination against the deadly strain?

Comments please.
=========================

Hey CVM,

This is not variant specific but useful nonetheless.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#case-outcome

The graph details show with cursor as September death rate @ 4% and current death rate @ 2.8% so optimistically getting better.

You are correct as this will not be reported on any MSM feed.

Cheers, R

#151 Wrk.dover on 02.16.21 at 1:23 pm

#141 Dharma Bum on 02.16.21 at 10:19 am

I wanted to retire before I even started working!

——————————————————-

My easy way out was building an R2000 spec house two years before the spec existed with a Stihl 015 chainsaw and 32oz Estwing hammer on my $3000 lot.

The house is 900sq ft., and with padded receipts allowing a bigger loan, including the 500′ three layer driveway drilled well, septic plus three power poles, we were in for $18,500. The 3,500 sq ft. garage three years later added $12,000 more enslavement

That was not much of a setback, in 1981.

If I were MR. IH, I would slow build a 400 sq ft R2000 winter home in the back yard for the future!

Before our build, we rented a 1755 home with a $1500 oil heat bill for the winter of 80/81, thermostat set at 60 F! Quaint though.

#152 BillyBob on 02.16.21 at 1:40 pm

#39 Faron on 02.15.21 at 4:48 pm
#163 BillyBob on 02.15.21 at 6:37 am

Nice pics. Must be amazing to see from the air.

Have to say, too bad you didn’t get the eyes pin-sharp as a true professional would have.

=============================

Oh those are just work snapshots, not my pro work. I make no claims to astrophotography and the novelty of northern lights wore off some time ago. They were just unusually bright that night, and I remember it was exceptionally cold that night, to the point we were concerned about the fuel temperature.

But I HAVE done a ton of human portraits as a paid sideline, so yeah. Getting the eyes in focus is paramount unless there’s an artistic reason to not do so. With some of my lenses you’ve got about a cm of DOF at f1.2 so as I said in my original comment, it isn’t easy.

#153 Captain Uppa on 02.16.21 at 1:40 pm

The solution is gov’t mandated (and built?) affordable housing. Not every available piece of land should be for another super rich developer group.

Simple as that.

Offer affordable supply. Will it be The Bridle Path? No, but it doesn’t have to be row upon row of gulag looking Chernobyl buildings either.

#154 Stone on 02.16.21 at 1:59 pm

#129 Guy on 02.16.21 at 8:31 am
So the pregnant wife and I, who are both professionals have managed to save up 250k for a down payment.
We want to leave the condo we’re in and buy a detached house.

We can afford one million for a house, but only want to spend $900k as we don’t want to buy at our max.

There was a two bedroom bungalow in Tottenham, five year old house.
Listed for 825k
We made an offer for 860k only to see our offer was the lowest of five
Went back with 947.5, and got outbid.

The sellers are now taking their property off the market in hopes of getting over a million when they relist in two weeks.

This market is terrible, we are now unable to find a decent house for us to start our family thanks to the speculation investors.

Not sure I want to have my kid raised in a condo which we sacrificed to live in to help save money.

This whole real estate market is not made for first time home buyers.
I don’t want to go to the bank of mom & dad for an extra $100-200k to help us secure a property, but as time goes by this looks like our only option.

———

I read the above and wonder what kind of drugs people are on. That, or they were dropped on their head when they were babies.

Not to be too harsh but maybe it’s time for people to experience war first hand. Then they’ll understand what true misery is.

#155 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 2:38 pm

#148 Sail Away on 02.16.21 at 12:48 pm

There are lots of upsides to having your own business, especially if you are your own product- meaning your skills are in demand. Can you contract back to your current employer?

Heck, put all those bulldozers to work. Lawn care, landscaping and snow removal can be lucrative when managed conscientiously.

You might be surprised about that whole ‘part-time’ and ‘income cut’ business.
__

Nah – the PT biz thing would be a casual deal, I would make sure it stayed that way. I know what you mean about how part time turns into full time. I suppose if I loved it, I’d roll with it but, I also love to fish :)

My Dad does the property maintenance thing as a seasonal part time retirement job, and he is still at it turning 77. This is what I’d like to do too. Work for older retired folks. These are great people, you never know who’ll you meet, and they pass the word around if they like you.

I already own most of what I’d need as personal use. I know I’d like the work. I don’t want to work in the industry I am in now – or behind a desk, I’d just stay doing what I am now if I did. I don’t need or want to hustle – I’d be in it for other reasons.

Besides allowing me to work outside, earn a little money, and have a little fun – it would also let me unpack some of my RRSP’s in a tax efficient manner too :).

#156 IHCTD9 on 02.16.21 at 3:02 pm

#151 Wrk.dover on 02.16.21 at 1:23 pm

If I were MR. IH, I would slow build a 400 sq ft R2000 winter home in the back yard for the future!

___

A variation of this could happen! I have a 4 acre corner lot that I can take 2 easy lots off of, but there are “issues” with severing. I’m going to take one more kick at the can for this.

If successful, then our last ever house will be built next door. Small 1200-1300sf, but nice, built for old folks, and efficient.

Sever off two lots, build on one, sell the other, then sell our current place. I think after everything is paid, and everything is bought, we’d be in a nice new place and have ~200K in our pocket on top.

If not, we’ll likely stay here for another 10 years or more. Probably more.

I should have severed that land the minute I moved in 20 years ago, 10X more BS now.

#157 Guy on 02.16.21 at 5:18 pm

@145

We don’t mind renting
We currently rent

With a child on the way we wanted to change this
If we are unable to, so be it

My happiness lies not with home ownership

#158 Guy on 02.16.21 at 5:21 pm

@133

Wife has her own business, so she won’t be on mar leave

That being said, our child will be loved and happy.

#159 Andrew on 02.16.21 at 5:22 pm

Ok, I admit it. I just bought 2 puppies, once for each kid. 2 toy poodles. And yes. 3K each. Man am I dumb. But they are pretty cute. Our current dog, a poodle-pom…is not impressed.