A different world

Four years ago a couple paid big bucks for a suburban spread in a bidding war, in a housing bubble. The seller was a blog dog. He’d hit the jackpot.

Afraid house prices were out of control (then rising 30% year/year) and young potential buyers would be locked out forever, politicians sprang into action. Mortgage regs were tightened. Foreign buyer curbs announced. Rent controls enhanced. Task forces established. Media briefings held.

It was, the Ontario government said, “a comprehensive package of measures to help more people find affordable homes, increase supply, protect buyers and renters and bring stability to the real estate market.” And as this took place, similar changes happened in Vancouver, which now has a speculation tax, enhanced property taxes, a vacancy tax and relaxed zoning to quell prices, punt flippers and increase supply.

What happened to our blog buddy?

After the government measures were announced the market plopped. Prices plunged. The buyers walked. The sellers sued. The courts ruled, awarding our guy almost $500,000 in damages (the difference between the offered price and the eventual resale value, plus costs). Then the buyers declared bankruptcy. Legal chaos ensued. Everybody lost.

That was then. This is now. And, man, what a different world.

First, we have real estate hyper-inflation – a bigger, scarier, more gaseous airbag than anyone in 2017 could have imagined. And it’s bloating by the day.

Second, the government no longer gives a fig. In fact, most people have reached the conclusion that politicians want this to happen. It seems they’re right.

Third, it will end. When and how is unknown, but every day the danger accentuates.

Source: Realosophy; GreaterFool

The epicentre of the irrational asset inflation – a.k.a. the bubble – is once again in 905. That crazed arc around Toronto is this time the Promised Land because of the virus. With the region in rolling restrictions, lockdowns, quarantines and panic for almost a year an exodus out of urbanity has overwhelmed the burbs. People have fled germy condo elevators and common corridors. Nesting is an obsession. WFH has created the desire for more space. Shuttered schools and online learning have parents clamouring for more room. And stupid-cheap mortgage rates have allowed people to buy far more on the same income, reaching for real estate they could never otherwise afford.

But as demand for this kind of housing has soared, supply has not. The last thing most owners want is to list their houses during a pandemic when they must open their doors to strangers (and realtors in PPE), then seek another place to live when prices are romping and choices are few. So Covid creates an army of buyers. But the virus is also shrinking supply. Prices are therefore insane.

How nuts?

This blog has furnished a few examples lately. Annualized increases of 150% in the last few months. On average, 905 houses are rising 8-10% a month, or four times the rate of 2017. There are three realities flowing out of this. First, affordability is diving. Every week young couples are being punished as prices rise far faster than incomes. Second, the wealth divide is exploding. WFH salaried homeowners are seeing their unearned net worth swell. Hourly workers and renters whacked by virus shutdowns are suffering disproportionately. Third, the bubble has brought back the flippers – those grifters and vermin who scuttle around the darkest bits of the MLS baseboards using leverage and FOMO to grease their sullied paws.

Months of inventory have dropped to mere weeks. Days-on-market stats are into single digits in some hoods. Over-asking bids of fifty or a hundred grand are routine. House values have completely disconnected from rents, or incomes. Lenders hungry for market share continue to squeeze rates and shovel out loans. Hour by hour we create two classes in a troubled society. The owners and the others.

Why does government not care? In fact, are politicians purposefully facilitating this? Is their silence condoning house lust, speculation and panic?

Well, it’s sad. The Bank of Canada has been instrumental in depressing bond yields through its debt-buying while keeping its benchmark rate close to zero. This has resulted in both 1.5% mortgages and wilful blindness on the part of the governor who says no bubble exists.

Governments at all levels have refused to drop the hammer on speculation, opting instead to raise taxes on buyers and owners which only inflates the cost of housing. And staring at what’s obviously the most humungous, quivering, inflating property bubble of our time, politicians are frozen, terrified, because of Covid. They’d rather endure the consequences of this event than move to mitigate the danger, as every morsel of economic activity is needed. They’re desperate. Out of options. Next time we should vote with more care.

Well, what now?

More. This is out of control and will stay that way for months to come. Only rising interest rates as the vaccine spreads will dampen the fires. Meanwhile the infectious prices have crept out many hours from the city core.

Prices soar because people expect them to. They rise because buyers think there is no risk. When leaders don’t care, why should we?

The reckoning will be quite an event.

About the picture: The photo, says Kris, “is of our rescue Collie, Danny, a non-judgemental listener and faithful companion. During Lockdown Madness, my 2 daily diversions are reading your blog and writing music. Upon reviewing one of my recent productions, I feel that some of your influence has crept into my lyrics… For your and Dorothy’s amusement, I have attached a recording of “Talking To My Dog “.  And here it is.

194 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 02.14.21 at 12:54 pm

Alert…here is potentially the future of Kanada: are we being set up and for what? Consider this:

– The only opposition voice (weak) O’Toole stated he will align with Biden’s USA policies.
– Why assume the Bank of Canada e-currency will be $CAD?
– USA border is closed. The virtual Berlin Wall is up, there is no escape.
– The Canadian football league (CFL) was cancelled.
– Blue Jays baseball team, Leafs hockey team are BANNED from the country. Where are they now? USA – hint hint.
– Sports, our culture and identity is being cancelled. Two big names D. Cherry and G. Zaun were canned the other year.
– “TSN 1040, Vancouver’s longest-running sports radio station, has been removed from the airwaves.
The radio station, also known as CKST, is the latest victim of cuts by parent company Bell Canada.”
– Kanada is given greater debt, defects than we can count — in this WW3 a bankers’ war.

To what end? A NORTH AMERICAN UNION. (And maybe a new currency, the Amero?
Merge USA , Kanada, and Mexico. Put it this way. Wouldn’t the handful of Globalist corporations love paying Canadian workers the same wages as their Mexcico car plants. These rolling Economic Lockdowns are for the Globalists benefit, not ours .Our leaders all are on board with this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Union
The North American Union (NAU) is a theoretical economic and political continental union of Canada, Mexico and the United States.
Some form of union has been discussed or proposed in academic, business, and political circles for decades.[1][2][3][4] However, government officials from all three nations say there are no plans to create a North American Union and that no agreement to do so has been proposed, much less signed.[5][6][7] The formation of a North American Union has been the subject of various conspiracy theories.[8][9][10][11]

— Of course they tell us no plans. For the same reason they did not tell us that the economic shutdown will last 1-2 years brining us to our knees. No it was only “2 weeks”, then a few month, then 28 days. Then rolling lockdowns on New variants (per that ‘crazy leaked plan’ this weblog surprisingly covered & debunked.)

#2 Doug t on 02.14.21 at 12:56 pm

UNICORNS AND RAINBOWS

the government is facilitating this because CANADA has very little else to keep the economy from completely crashing

#3 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:02 pm

The reckoning will be quite an event.

——————————————

What reckoning? Still waiting…

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm

Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.

#5 leebow on 02.14.21 at 1:10 pm

Two possible sources of further price appreciation: lower interest rates and wage inflation.

If no wage inflation and rates drop to zero, then there is another 25% appreciation potential (keeping monthly payment the same).

If wage inflation starts, then who knows how far it can go.

No reason for STEM graduates to hang around. Just move to the US of A. May be wage inflation is not that far away.

#6 Rainman on 02.14.21 at 1:12 pm

Good points… maybe I will sell and retire?

#7 Leftover on 02.14.21 at 1:12 pm

Governments absolutely want (or accept) what’s happening because they’re out of bullets. Resource industries have become a political liability and knowledge-based investment has never had much traction here because the alternative, housing, is tax-free.

I expect several things will happen in the next 12 months:

– vaccination and therapies will hobble Covid
– inflation will become the new pandemic
– interest rates, independent of CB’s, will spike
– pent-up supply of listings as sellers realize this is it
– capital gain inclusion rate will go to 75%
– and, for good measure, Amazon will squish Shopify

#8 Prince Polo on 02.14.21 at 1:13 pm

I cannot wait for 1bdrm condos in GTA to have average $5M price tag. Eventually, GTA will become Monaco North and all the super-yachts docked in the harbour will bring additional tourism dollars to the region. Who cares if the average middle-classer can’t fund retirement savings and vacations? Unfortunately, politicians are weak-willed and will therefore, leave this humongous unaffordability gasbag for some other loser to accidentally implode.

#9 Ian on 02.14.21 at 1:14 pm

So I have preferential rent I snagged during COVID. Should I lock in a year at the COVID price with a new lease? My worry is the vaccine might cause my non rent controlled home to go up 15% once people start roaming around once more? Thoughts?

#10 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 1:14 pm

I have attached a recording of “Talking To My Dog “. And here it is.
*************************************
Nice tune!

#11 Grunt on 02.14.21 at 1:18 pm

416 I saw a 333 street in upper cabbagetown listed for 3.5. St Jamestown is just the other side of the light.

#12 Real Estate Hyper inflation ... wow on 02.14.21 at 1:18 pm

“we have real estate hyper-inflation – a bigger, scarier, more gaseous airbag than anyone in 2017 could have imagined. And it’s bloating by the day”

May as well be Hyper Inflation as Real estate is the principle spend for most….

In any case, my Oakville home is available to the highest bidder. No need to live downtown as a GO train ride is more sensible as normalcy eventually returns. Life is better in Oakville …

#13 Stone on 02.14.21 at 1:22 pm

Late 80s real estate crash, where are you, buddy?

I’m just around the corner punching in the nuclear codes. I’ll be with you in a few minutes.

This could be EPIC!

#14 TurnerNation on 02.14.21 at 1:24 pm

Sorry weblog I trust the EXPERTS!! I will stand aside – very very end of the line. ;-) ;-)
By our government’s definition I am not racialized.
(Government Source doc: https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/documents/files/racializd_ss_en.pdf )

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/racialized-canadians-vaccine-priority-1.5911952
“Most at risk, first in line: Public health experts say racialized Canadians should be prioritized for vaccines”
“Two public health experts in Toronto say governments must prioritize vaccinating Black Canadians and other people of colour against COVID-19 because the data shows they are most at risk of contracting the virus.”

……..
For the Doomers, as seen on Twitter and confirmed via a Brazillian acquaintance, that country is basically life as normal. The result, vs locked down Argentinia? Surprising outcome chart: https://i.redd.it/mpbjfgzsrbh61.png

Jan 2021 life in Sweeden video – life looks Normal with a few precautions. Why is Kanada being wrecked?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wQnR_JHjUU&feature=emb_title

……
-Here come more checkpoints/Virtual Berlin walls for Q1

“B.C. readies plans to stop visitors at the Alberta border, if needed” (vancouversun.com)

– Quebec Curfew was extended. This is wartime stuff. Red zone, green zone didn’t this use that mapping in Baghadad during the invasion? Seen elsewhere:

“If the numbers go down, “It’s working!” So, the curfew must be extended.
If the numbers go up, “It’s getting worse!” So, the curfew must be extended.”

…………

The economic hitjobs continue in the Former First World Countries.

https://www.3aw.com.au/the-owner-of-several-popular-melbourne-restaurants-calls-on-the-premier-to-resign/
The owner of several popular Melbourne restaurants has called on Daniel Andrews to resign after Victoria was plunged into its third lockdown in less than a year on Friday. Chris Lucas, who runs Chin Chin and Hawker Hall, told Tom Elliott the announcement was a “catastrophe” for Melbourne’s hospitality sector.
He said it was estimated that $100 million in sales would be lost over the next five days in Victoria and that $30 million of fresh food would be wasted.
“The food has already been prepared,” he said.

–Closer to home:

https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/opinion/2021/02/12/restaurant-king-charles-khabouth-deep-fries-justin-trudeau-over-canadas-slow-vaccine-rollout.html
The lockdown has put all of us in a headlock. But for restaurateurs, it’s more of a chokehold. Khabouth has laid off about 2,400 employees, more than 90 per cent of the workforce at INK Entertainment, the company he founded 37 years ago.
So how many cases were linked to his restaurants?
“Zero,” he says. “Not one single infection came from indoor dining.”

#15 Linda on 02.14.21 at 1:29 pm

We keep on talking about the increasing wealth divide, but overlook the fact that unless or until an asset is sold the value is whatever is paid on the day of the sale. Or not, as per the example in today’s blog post. Those buyers who walked, were sued & then declared bankruptcy? Declaring bankruptcy presumably got them out of having to pay for their broken legal contract? Plus, if they couldn’t pay in the first place & were in fact so strapped for cash they declared bankruptcy when the judgement went against them it simply illustrates just how fragile this house of cards is.

As for the politicians, I’m not sure who if anyone could do anything else than what the current crop are doing. Grabbing every dime they can to appease the masses, continuing the rhetoric that ‘the elite’ are the source of all ills – elite, apparently, is anyone who actually owns RE regardless of the actual state of their finances otherwise – versus those who don’t own RE. Tax those elite, tax them! Tax them until I can afford to buy what they have! Except that doesn’t appear to be working…..

#16 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:34 pm

Just move to Cornwall, Ontario. Prices are still “reasonable” enough that you might not even need your GTA job.

#17 Faron on 02.14.21 at 1:34 pm

The RE plunge will start before it’s even noticed. Suddenly lots of signs on lawns and the buyers… just… poof. Gone. Kaizer Soze like.

#18 Jimmy Zhao on 02.14.21 at 1:39 pm

I think the government will prop up the housing market. With so many people’s wealth tied up in their home, it is an industry ‘too big to fail’

Real Estate if HOT. It’s all I hear people talking about in YVR, my Facebook feed is inundated with RE ads. In fact, RE agents have setup FB pages dedicated to selling pre-sales amongst themselves and their clients.

#19 Millennial905er on 02.14.21 at 1:40 pm

I’m not sure why I keep coming back here but this has been my anecdotal experience.

As of January, real estate agents around here (the 905) have been saying that the real estate market is red hot / on fire / emoji. Pumping the spring market as one that would be insane. That may have been true in January, when there was no inventory, but now I’ve noticed a huge influx of new listings, priced at ridiculous levels or expecting ridiculous sale prices.
When you look at the sold inventory, it is few and far between. Some of the ones that have been sold have gone for stupid asking prices, however the amount of listings just sitting on the market is absolutely going up. They just aren’t selling.

I think we’re at a bit of a breaking point based on what I’ve seen, but this is just my view as a potential buyer who stalks listings in my area of the 905.

#20 Frank on 02.14.21 at 1:40 pm

This blog has been predicting house prices to crash for over a decade. It’s time to accept that all houses will be “worth” at least a million within a couple of years, Tesla share price will be 15,000, NASDAQ at 100,000 . “This time it’s different”.

But I hope that we get a massive crash of everything soon of EPIC proportions!!!

The blog has not predicted a crash, because one is not needed to cause widespread financial suffering. Flatlining prices and gently rising interest rates are all that are needed now for significant implications. – Garth

#21 Faron on 02.14.21 at 1:42 pm

Next gamma squeeze target appears to be UVXY (a leveraged long VIX futures ETF). I can’t wrap my mind around squeezing the VIX because doing so represents second/third order squeezing (using options to squeeze a derivative of options).

Anyhow, this may go the way of the attempt on silver — the market was too big to push — or it may trigger some nastiness.

Watch this VIX over the next couple weeks. It’s as low as it’s been since the start of COVID, but still elevated and very high for a market consistently making ATHs.

#22 Faron on 02.14.21 at 1:49 pm

#18 Jimmy Zhao on 02.14.21 at 1:39 pm

I think the government will prop up the housing market. With so many people’s wealth tied up in their home, it is an industry ‘too big to fail’

I’m sure they will try if it comes to that. But, think back to equity crashes and how well propping works at the time of the crash. Not at all. Or, not until it’s gone quite a ways.

RE is a stickier beast but also carries a ton of momentum. If it turns and gets rolling down hill, I doubt there’s much to be done aside from supporting the homeowners that have to transition to renters. With the GFC RE crash, the market was far far too massive for any gov’t intervention and RE dropped to a new, balanced level. That balance was struck in some markets by the vultures sweeping in to pick up distressed properties.

I’m not calling for a crash, but I do think that buyers will disappear some time this year and things will get a little spicy.

#23 Whinepegger on 02.14.21 at 1:54 pm

“Next time we should vote with more care.”

And therein lies the problem. There are currently ZERO parties vying to lead us out of this morass that would not lead us into the same place my young nephew went many years ago in his sleep – into the closet to pee in a shoe. People with the brain cells that might actually have the insight and fortitude to lead us into the future see politics in the same way society used to view lepers and, to our detriment, we get left with a bunch of money/power hungry or tree hugging David Suzuki worshippers or Mr Socks that rides his name further into the Amal’s of infamy. It’s not our circumstances that worry me, it’s the lack of inspirational leadership that has me terrified for our futures.

#24 X on 02.14.21 at 1:57 pm

In North York, there are still buyers who are trying to recoup the prices they paid in 2016. Some might get it this spring. How many more months of oportunity who knows. But I doubt 5 yeas from now, the buyers of this spring will have the same opportunity to get out and not loose money like those from 5 years ago are getting now.

#25 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:01 pm

#10 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 1:14 pm
I have attached a recording of “Talking To My Dog “. And here it is.
*************************************
Nice tune!
——

Seconded! Kris has a Louis Armstrong meets country vibe going on there.

#26 Damifino on 02.14.21 at 2:10 pm

The last thing most owners want is to list their houses during a pandemic when they must open their doors to strangers (and realtors in PPE), then seek another place to live when prices are romping and choices are few.
———————————–

Short it this way: Sell your insanely overpriced house for every dollar you can get. It will go fast. You’ll only have endure the process once, because… now you can rent a house near Barrie, Kitchener, Orillia or some such place. What will it matter? You’re WFH in the middle of a pandemic anyway. Get something as comfortable as your previous place.

Invest (properly) the proceeds of your windfall. The income on that kind of cash will cover rent and all other expenses while you keep on working and earning. Then just wait a while. Maybe a few years.

In due time you’ll again be able to buy closer to Toronto, if you feel you must. But once you’re used to having that cash rolling in you might even choose to keep on renting.
There’s bound to be some great bargains.

#27 Stahom on 02.14.21 at 2:12 pm

Wow, just wow. Just watching this “major market” housing reality show from Edmonton with my bowl of popcorn. Slag western Canada all you want while you grind out some sort of existence spending every disposable dollar on a house, I’m going skiing to Jasper with my son. At least the reasonable cost of living here permits a life.

#28 willworkforpickles on 02.14.21 at 2:15 pm

As i have previously said, high unpayable debt is a curse on nations and individuals.

#29 Red Shadow on 02.14.21 at 2:16 pm

If I lived in Taiwan I’d be buying a home in one of the Western Democracies. That is just one place. There are many more. With president Xiden in the White House many folks in places like Taiwan are worried. Justifiably so. Locals are in this game too, but the 800 lb gorilla in the room is something many want to deny. Also, with federal spending where it is more inflation is on the way. One place to hide out is RE.

#30 Kevin BC on 02.14.21 at 2:22 pm

100% with you, Garth. Can’t wait for the blog post in a year or told saying I told you so.

This can’t last.

#31 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.

#32 Oakville Rocks! on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

Lovely dog and great tune. Well done Kris.
I thought I was hearing Mr. Louis Armstrong there for a minute… what instruments am I hearing, a ukulele and a banjo?

Some really fantastic photos of blog dogs lately – keep up the great work.

#33 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 2:24 pm

Can we call this hyperinflation yet?

And this should be proof that the government serves the banking system and not the other way around.

#34 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 2:25 pm

I thought you were going to pen an ode to love today, Garth ;)

#35 Howard on 02.14.21 at 2:28 pm

I don’t doubt that prices are up bigly, but I think there’s a little bit of “house price delusion” here (as Ross Kay would say) caused by changing sales mix. Crashing interest rates mean that middle-aged professionals can go for a bigger, more expensive house than they would have previously. Meanwhile soaring values have kicked first-time home buyers out of the market, resulting in proportionately fewer sales at the lower end versus previous years and thereby raising the average overall sale price.

In general, I find average price stats of such a diverse asset class to provide little in the way of informative value. Median or benchmarks are preferable.

#36 MF on 02.14.21 at 2:29 pm

#21 Faron on 02.14.21 at 1:49 pm

There will be a crash. We’ve past the point of no return. Everyone and their brother is a “real estate investor” with lots of leverage and multiple properties.

There is only one thing holding the entire gasbag together and it’s ultra low, ultra manipulated interest rates. They cannot and will not stay at this level forever.

We are getting closer by the day. I’m detecting a lot of capitulation out there, even in our comment section. “The new normal”, “the government won’t let it happen”, “prices will rise forever”…all these statements are increasing in frequency. When it happens it won’t be fast either. Just slow and quiet..yet before you know it sentiment has changed. Until the last second, the real estate industry will still tell everyone it’s a “good time to buy”. So expect a further 6 months before anyone gets any wind of a market collapse being upon us.

Want to predict when? Just follow interest rates. Everything else (wfh, newcomers, etc.) has zero impact.

MF

#37 Bert on 02.14.21 at 2:32 pm

The 10-year BOC bond yield is 1%. The 5-year is 0.5%. Yields are only slightly higher in the US. Yet oil is already at $60. I think the bond market is telling us that the “re opening trade” is over done.

#38 Bert on 02.14.21 at 2:33 pm

Canadian real estate prices will remain stubbornly high as long as the 5 year and 10 year bond yields remain low. They would literally need to double to affect the market. They have a LONG way go.

#39 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:34 pm

Just remember debt is only a construct. If it can’t be paid, it can’t be paid. Bankruptcy, a few meetings… all cool.

Look to your dog for advice. Tell him he owes you money. No reaction. Now tell him there’s bacon. See the difference? Bacon is real.

#40 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 2:36 pm

I have updated my Sales, Inventory, Absorption Rates and Months of Inventory charts with January data for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal:
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html

As noted on the residential inventory chart, apart from “negative rates” and unbridled FOMO, the biggest influence for sellers to continue jacking up asking prices especially for detached and townhouse products is the dearth of listings in Toronto and especially in Ottawa.

As Garth points out:

“Months of inventory have dropped to mere weeks. Days-on-market stats are into single digits in some hoods.”

My Absorption Rate chart http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html has been tracking this for years. During the 2016-2017 wilding in Toronto the absorption rate hit a peak of 154%. In Ottawa, the absorption rate hit 123% in July 2020 and on the January 2021 data, Ottawa is still above 100% with Toronto at 94%.

Pet rocks… but with maintenance, liability and depreciation issues.

#41 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:37 pm

A note this morning from friends in Alaska:

‘On Friday the phone rang. “Do you want to get the covid vaccine today?” Yes! I wonder if my 76-year old husband could also get it. He doctors at xxxxx (My health service is xxxxxx) Yes he could! Hurrah. Now in about a month they’ll call to tell us when we can get the second dose.’

#42 Howard on 02.14.21 at 2:42 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.

———————————–

Well then, what do you propose? Elect the Liberals again?

I’m actually pretty confident that the Conservatives can do better than what is objectively the worst and most incompetent government in Canadian history. Maybe not a whole lot better, but better nonetheless.

And I am not a Conservative. They are too globalist for my liking and they are not sufficiently supportive of freedom of expression in the midst of toxic cancel culture.

#43 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 2:43 pm

21 Faron on 02.14.21 at 1:49 pm
#18 Jimmy Zhao on 02.14.21 at 1:39 pm

I think the government will prop up the housing market. With so many people’s wealth tied up in their home, it is an industry ‘too big to fail’

I’m sure they will try if it comes to that. But, think back to equity crashes and how well propping works at the time of the crash. Not at all. Or, not until it’s gone quite a ways.

RE is a stickier beast but also carries a ton of momentum. If it turns and gets rolling down hill, I doubt there’s much to be done aside from supporting the homeowners that have to transition to renters. With the GFC RE crash, the market was far far too massive for any gov’t intervention and RE dropped to a new, balanced level. That balance was struck in some markets by the vultures sweeping in to pick up distressed properties.

I’m not calling for a crash, but I do think that buyers will disappear some time this year and things will get a little spicy.

——————————————

Only way they’re disappearing is if they emigrate. Not going to happen. And the party goes on!

#44 Dolce Vita on 02.14.21 at 2:50 pm

VAX Canadense

Capt. Obv:

Canada way behind to meet “All vaxd by Sept end”. The VAX Flatline, end of Week 6 yesterday:

https://i.imgur.com/DI13c9J.png

3.8M people not vax’d that should have been by now.

= 7.6M doses behind schedule.

Cdn VAX Larder near EMPTY. Unused doses in Canada as of yesterday (1,267,225 doses received, 968,538 vax’d single dose, 284,404 vax’d 2 doses):

14,283

Global Nat’l the other night about doses to come:

• 4M Pfizer by Mar 31
• 10.8M Pfizer by Apr-Jun (nothing about if that includes the 4M or is over & above 4M?)
• 4M Moderna this Summer (no month, just “Summer”?)

All smoke & mirrors by Trudeau so far.

Unless a lot of doses from other VAX manufacturers come in late Spring, early Summer the above looks way behind to achieve Trudeau’s end of Sept goal.

———————–

“Optimism the economy will quickly accelerate once the pace of vaccinations picks up.”

Going to take a while longer. And with that RE and The Markets will keep on inflating. Take all that the BNS Economist said the other day, delay it by Lord know how long and you have it.

#45 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 2:51 pm

#26 Stahom on 02.14.21 at 2:12 pm
Wow, just wow. Just watching this “major market” housing reality show from Edmonton with my bowl of popcorn. Slag western Canada all you want while you grind out some sort of existence spending every disposable dollar on a house, I’m going skiing to Jasper with my son. At least the reasonable cost of living here permits a life
************************************
As my wife always says, you can own a house or a house can own you.

#46 Love_The_Cottage on 02.14.21 at 2:51 pm

Governments at all levels have refused to drop the hammer on speculation
________
In 2016 the Federal government changed the rule so gains are only exempt on your principal residence. Revenue Canada is a bit behind in checking, but I know for a fact they are following up (had it happen to a relative).

What specific changes are you suggesting Garth?

#47 Richard L on 02.14.21 at 2:56 pm

When Macklem was appointed as governor I was optimistic as he seemed to be very intelligent. Now I’m not so sure.

#48 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 3:02 pm

#23 X on 02.14.21 at 1:57 pm
In North York, there are still buyers who are trying to recoup the prices they paid in 2016. Some might get it this spring. How many more months of oportunity who knows. But I doubt 5 yeas from now, the buyers of this spring will have the same opportunity to get out and not loose money like those from 5 years ago are getting now.

———————————————

Oops!!! Looks like it’s not just physical mail that gets lost for years. I swear I saw this same comment between 5-10 years ago. Prices in North York are well beyond what was paid in 2015-2016-2017. Time to come out of your mom’s basement and get a breath of fresh air!

#49 SOMETHINGS UP! on 02.14.21 at 3:02 pm

Government INTERVENTION create all this mess in the 1st place.

Should have let the markets do their thing.

Oh well.

#50 joe on 02.14.21 at 3:05 pm

van down by the river?

#51 Penny Henny on 02.14.21 at 3:07 pm

House prices to the moon!
Seriously though here in Welland (also most of Niagara region, I imagine) prices are up 40% from last year. 15-20% just in the last 3 months. I bought in 2016 and prices have easily doubled.
1 hour 25 minute drive to downtown Toronto and that is with no traffic. In bad weather or in rush hour it’s close to a 3 hour drive.

#52 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 3:09 pm

30 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm
#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.

——————————

Sure…but then the senior bureaucrats behind the throne in Ottawa wouldn’t have anyone to push the blame on when they screw up! Lose/Lose

#53 DON on 02.14.21 at 3:10 pm

#7 Leftover on 02.14.21 at 1:12 pm
Governments absolutely want (or accept) what’s happening because they’re out of bullets. Resource industries have become a political liability and knowledge-based investment has never had much traction here because the alternative, housing, is tax-free.

I expect several things will happen in the next 12 months:

– vaccination and therapies will hobble Covid
– inflation will become the new pandemic
– interest rates, independent of CB’s, will spike
– pent-up supply of listings as sellers realize this is it
– capital gain inclusion rate will go to 75%
– and, for good measure, Amazon will squish Shopify

************

Not until Mr. Trudeau attempts to capitalize on all good will his government has shelled out.

June elections sounds Bout right as the warmer weather comes and cases decease. Plus all those CERB cases being over looked for now.

I take it CERB will be extended a couple more months. By May we will hear of success on the vaccine front.

If a majority takes hold….who cares about you and me.

#54 Daniel on 02.14.21 at 3:11 pm

garth – would you buy first or sell first in this market?

That depends entirely on location. – Garth

#55 45north on 02.14.21 at 3:13 pm

Governments at all levels have refused to drop the hammer on speculation, opting instead to raise taxes on buyers and owners which only inflates the cost of housing. And staring at what’s obviously the most humungous, quivering, inflating property bubble of our time, politicians are frozen, terrified, because of Covid. They’d rather endure the consequences of this event than move to mitigate the danger, as every morsel of economic activity is needed. They’re desperate. Out of options. Next time we should vote with more care.

“politicians are frozen, terrified
every morsel of economic activity is needed
They’re desperate. Out of options. “

tough times, epic times

I take inspiration from the American Civil War. I read the book, Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin. The sons of the American Cabinet were in the army or the navy. The families lived in terror of a telegram. They endured.

#56 triplenet on 02.14.21 at 3:15 pm

#7 Leftover

Amazon does not generate any taxable profit – it’s cloud division does- but that is not Amazon per se.
Tesla- same thing.
Shopify on the other hand….

#57 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 3:21 pm

#40 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:37 pm
A note this morning from friends in Alaska:

‘On Friday the phone rang. “Do you want to get the covid vaccine today?” Yes! I wonder if my 76-year old husband could also get it. He doctors at xxxxx (My health service is xxxxxx) Yes he could! Hurrah. Now in about a month they’ll call to tell us when we can get the second dose.’
********************************************
Three American couples are coming back to our condo complex this coming Monday. They waited to get their second shots before booking flights. One couple from Austin Tx (in their 70’s). one couple from Seattle (60’s & 70’s) and one couple from Ft. Worth Tx (early 60’s). A fourth couple (mid 50’s) are expecting to arrive in a week or two from Denver.

#58 David and Darlene Moore on 02.14.21 at 3:25 pm

Kris,

That song will be in my head for sure. Thank you for sharing.

Be well.

#59 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 3:28 pm

“Can we call this hyperinflation yet?” #32 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 2:24 pm

It’s clear from looking at my Earnings and Employment charts that deflation is in effect in the social contract: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Commodity and paper assets have inflated as in a bubble, yes.

CPI continues to be on mute: http://www.chpc.biz/interest-rate-spread.html

Hyperinflation? Nope.

#60 Dolce Vita on 02.14.21 at 3:31 pm

#14 TurnerNation

Sweden doing so well.

Canada has about 3.7X their population.

Latest Swedish stats by actual Svenskar (stats created in your video’s underground shopping mall). Use Google Translate.

Smittade
608 411

Döda
12 428

Nya smittade
3 834

Nya dödsfall
58

Underground mall Svenskar:

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3Jgxj9/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset

——————————–

As for Brazil.

Ask buddy if he or she is going to Carnival this year ’cause it’s all “então de volta ao normal” there? Again use Google translate.

“Carnaval 2021 foi adiado ou cancelado na maior parte do Brasil”

https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2021/01/27/carnaval-2021-foi-adiado-ou-cancelado-na-maior-parte-do-brasil.ghtml

Are you sure buddy lives in Brasil?

#61 baloney Sandwitch on 02.14.21 at 3:33 pm

#9 Ian – yes.

One good thing about being a retired boomer is that I can watch this crazy three-ring circus (virus, RE & stock market) from the comfort of my study in the fringes of TO. I read somewhere you are wealthy if your passive income exceeds your expenses. I have reached that stage. The trick is to reduce your wants.

#62 Two-thirds on 02.14.21 at 3:36 pm

Why act surprised?

After more than a decade of preaching the same (correct) message, this pathetic blog’s audience has painfully learned that “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Canadian governments at all levels have realized there is little left to drive our economy, aside from FIRE and associated businesses. Renovators, landscapers, builders, etc., are doing brisk business, with months-long wait for services, and significantly-increased prices for projects and materials.

Elsewhere… crickets.

Policies and governance that have massively driven investment, foreign and national, away from Canada, since 2015, are showing their intended results. The slow death of Canada’s resource-heavy economy by this government’s design is bearing fruit, so we are reaping what they have sown.

Moral hazard IS official federal government policy, so RE is now too big and precious to fail and people will be spared the consequences of their actions. Because “it is 2015”, after all.

Party on, comrades! T2 and gang have your back, they will borrow and borrow whatever is needed so you do not have to! We are saved!

Yay!

Oh, Kanada!

:(

#63 FNAiks on 02.14.21 at 3:39 pm

Housing bubble blows when the stock bubble blows. April is my best guess. Got my popcorn ready.

A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

#64 the Jaguar on 02.14.21 at 3:39 pm

In my part-time gig as Avatar masquerading as clown car chauffeur I sometimes converse with the common folk in both GTA and also GVA, the two epi-centres of ‘lost their minds-ness”.

Any discussion on the topic of real estate which gently nudges at the possibility of a ‘correction’ and corresponding negative impact on finances is treated as a blasphemy. What follows is usually a lecture on what “world class cities are all about”, etc.

It isn’t just “wilful blindness on the part of the governor who says no bubble exists”, as Garth so aptly put it. Tiff Macklem has plenty of like minded thinkers to back up his statements.

So glad to be living in Calgary. No place is perfect and for sure we have our work cut out for us as we climb back up the mountain, but it feels so much more authentic and real here.

#65 Toronto_CA on 02.14.21 at 3:39 pm

Garth is right; the reason house prices can get so divorced from historical means is a lot because mortgage terms make carrying ridiculous debt loans affordable.

The cost of carrying huge mortgages has to rise for this to stop; either because the government reduces mortgage length maximums/increases downpayment minimums, or because interest rates on mortgages climb drastically.

I don’t trust the government to do anything to slow the housing bubble; the economy can’t take that kind of knockdown. But when interest rates start to climb significantly, not many will want be able to afford the associates mortgage payments. Particularly if its some stagflationary scenario that has high interest rates and high unemployment!

#66 glenn wood on 02.14.21 at 3:50 pm

In 1991 the Canadian real estate market fell off a cliff. All of a sudden there was an abundance of new listings and no more sales not to mention high unemployment. This may happen when there is strong evidence that the vaccine deliveries are prolific and Canadians can get their vaccination.

#67 Mike on 02.14.21 at 3:55 pm

#62 FNAiks: Housing bubble blows when the stock bubble blows. April is my best guess. Got my popcorn ready.

Garth: A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

That is very true Garth, the only issue I have with their predictions is that the MAJORITY of these analysts make their money on the SELL side. They don’t really give a shit about anything else, they want to keep the sheeple to buy so THEY the “analyst” make dough.

Ill-informed and subjective comment. The firms employing these folks make money if markets rise or fall. Park your prejudice. – Garth

#68 Winterpeg on 02.14.21 at 4:00 pm

Saw a thread by the Canadian Tax payers association sounding the alarm that the government is considering capital gains taxing primary residences.
You’ve done a piece on taxing primary residences before.
The government would have no reason to slow the RE trend if this were true, so there is some motivation for doing nothing to stop the climb in prices. A cash cow, would it be not?

Am coming around to the idea that taxing primary residences might be not such a bad thing.
Would it actually help slow the bubble?

#69 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 4:04 pm

Very catchy tune; he has that Louis Armstrong voice, enjoyed it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWzrABouyeE

#135 LP- from the other day: Thanks for that imagery. Is it true that close to the north when the aurora is flashing that it makes snapping, cracking noises? I read that somewhere.

F73ON

—————————————–

As a Canuck I have seen hundreds of them, some higher in the atmosphere and some lower. This one was much lower, the colors, indescribable, and yes there was sound, it was like a wooshing sound, woosh, whoosh,whoosh, it woke 30 students and teachers up and we all witnessed it. It was not crunching sounds of snow or ice cracking, lived 50 plus yrs in this country, I know the difference and familiar with outdoor noises such as ice quakes etc..

#70 FNAiks on 02.14.21 at 4:07 pm

Housing bubble blows when the stock bubble blows. April is my best guess. Got my popcorn ready.

A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

I’m not normally bearish but alarm bells are going off. Everything seems priced for perfection. Are these analysts just ignoring Uncle Warren? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/warren-buffett-s-favorite-valuation-metric-is-ringing-an-alarm. Market cap to GDP now almost 200%? How could analysts possibly think this ‘exuberance’ can continue for another year or two? This rally is almost entirely retail driven and IMHO the herd will get spooked and rush for the exits at the first sign of a 5%+ correction. Don’t even get me started on Tesla… though admittedly I have been wrong before!

‘The herd’ dd not rush for the exits last March when markets fell 30%. Explain that. — Garth

#71 Penny Henny on 02.14.21 at 4:14 pm

A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

/////////////////

Has there ever been a year where analysts predicted the market would go down?

Have they been wrong? – Garth

#72 Rainman on 02.14.21 at 4:14 pm

#62 FNAiks: Housing bubble blows when the stock bubble blows. April is my best guess. Got my popcorn ready.

Garth: A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

That is very true Garth, the only issue I have with their predictions is that the MAJORITY of these analysts make their money on the SELL side. They don’t really give a shit about anything else, they want to keep the sheeple to buy so THEY the “analyst” make dough.

Ill-informed and subjective comment. The firms employing these folks make money if markets rise or fall. Park your prejudice. – Garth

Both markets may drop 10,20 even 30%. As long as you can ride it out and don’t panic. Both will be well up in 10 years time.
Wake me up then.

#73 Bloff Witzer You're in the sitatation cloakroom on 02.14.21 at 4:16 pm

Vote with more care? Are we getting a whole new crop of candidates? Getting rid of all the current group. None of this crowd is worth voting for.

#74 NewWest on 02.14.21 at 4:16 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.
___________________________________________

So why don’t you guys run for office if you are so much smarter and know so much? You are very quick to criticize, but I’m not hearing a lot of what you are doing to make the country and the government better for people.

#75 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 4:23 pm

“So glad to be living in Calgary. No place is perfect and for sure we have our work cut out for us as we climb back up the mountain, but it feels so much more authentic and real here.” #63 the Jaguar on 02.14.21 at 3:39 pm

If Canada can transition to electric transportation, Calgary may just indeed become a center for innovation, especially if Gen Z takes up the challenge of excelling at non-routine employment. As I have been saying for years, Calgary housing http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html has a value proposition on offer in terms of housing cost vs payroll earnings which requires only 0.9 wage earners to qualify for mortgage financing compared to Toronto at 2.7 and Vancouver at 3.6.

Average Alberta employment earnings are now:
4% above Ontario​
8% above the national Canadian average
9% above BC and
13% above Quebec (no typo).

SF Detached Price increase in the last 10 years:
23% in Calgary
125% in Vancouver
151% in Toronto

#76 keep printing boys, keep printing on 02.14.21 at 4:30 pm

A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth
________________________________________

don’t you mean, stocks will go higher as central banks keep printing more money and governments keep handing it out..??

i’ve said it many times before. central banks are the problem. the gold standard was the worlds greatest monetary system. politicians are corrupt and inept. they can’t be trusted with finances. this is why cryptos are exploding. you haven’t seen anything yet.

raise rates to 3% tomorrow and stop printing money. let’s see what happens.

#77 Dramamine on 02.14.21 at 4:55 pm

Elect a drama teacher … get the drama!

Trudeau taught high school in Vancouver for four years and has been an MP, then Liberal leader, then PM for 13 years. You diminish legitimate criticism of his policies with such a stupid comment about his background. – Garth

#78 Waterloo Graduate on 02.14.21 at 5:18 pm

On Reddit, a frat house (and possibly a crack/Meth lab) sold for $100,000 over asking compared to last year in the KW area. What is happening to house prices in Canada?

#79 Doug in London on 02.14.21 at 5:20 pm

The reckoning will be quite an event.
——————————————————————————
Great, bring it on and make Canada great again! It’s long, long, long, long overdue.

#80 Inflation cometh on 02.14.21 at 5:25 pm

Bond yields are rising , signalling whats coming. Inflation is rising. If you feel you missed Bitcoin watch when it breaks 50,000. Buy commodities. Lithium is my fave and then Silver. Forget RE its days are numbered as are equities.

The BoC, The FED and the Gov’s don’t give a you know what …because if rates rise they can’t pay down their debt. Maybe Canada has a shot but the U.S would be insolvent if rates spiked.

#81 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.14.21 at 5:36 pm

Interesting discussion on the topic right now on CBC radio Cross Country Checkup.

One realtor said that he is seeing in the 905 a big increase in older residents cashing out of homes in this crazy market and then looking to rent.

With their cash windfalls, they are seeking rentals and are the best applicants, able to offer many months or years of advance payments. In contrast, ordinary folks are falling behind and with lower credit scores have little competitive leverage. He says he actually expects this to result in much more homelessness in Durham region by the summer.

#82 Dan in Nanaimo on 02.14.21 at 5:41 pm

When leaders don’t care why should we… that about sums it up.

#83 Long-Time Lurker on 02.14.21 at 5:52 pm

DELETED

#84 Long-Time Lurker on 02.14.21 at 5:54 pm

DELETED

#85 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 5:54 pm

#56 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 3:21 pm
#40 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:37 pm
A note this morning from friends in Alaska:

‘On Friday the phone rang. “Do you want to get the covid vaccine today?” Yes! I wonder if my 76-year old husband could also get it. He doctors at xxxxx (My health service is xxxxxx) Yes he could! Hurrah. Now in about a month they’ll call to tell us when we can get the second dose.’

————

Three American couples are coming back to our condo complex this coming Monday. They waited to get their second shots before booking flights. One couple from Austin Tx (in their 70’s). one couple from Seattle (60’s & 70’s) and one couple from Ft. Worth Tx (early 60’s). A fourth couple (mid 50’s) are expecting to arrive in a week or two from Denver.

————-

Yeah, the US seems to have this whole healthcare thing figured out. Wish Canada would.

#86 WTF on 02.14.21 at 5:59 pm

The Tiffster aint no Volker so we wont be seeing any heroic attempt to address this Housing asset bubble by dramatic intervention from an “independent” CB. The longer this goes the more pain in the end.

We, the somnambulant electorate are also guilty of ignoring this festering financial frog boiling.

Media ? Bought and paid for by the RE industry.
Banks? Naa, backstopped by the GOC, no skin in the game.
CREA? Sunshine and roses every day
Politicians? Kick that can down the road for some other sucker.

Wait till the other shoe drops. Alberta is or will no longer be the cash cow for the feds to “equalize” the various provincial coffers. Just when debt loads have ballooned.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/fiscal-federalism-and-the-dependency-of-atlantic-canada

With 0 business and financial management experience the Dilettante and newly minted Finance Minister have it all figured out I’m sure.

If history is a guide, Some unforeseen event will trigger this house of cards and it wont be pleasant for many.

#87 Dan in Nanaimo on 02.14.21 at 6:00 pm

When the leaders don’t care why should we… sounds like a jingle from a 70’s Soviet sitcom. It’s going to take a massive shock of some type to “normalize” the monetary/fiscal/banking landscape. Just don’t count on it happening anytime soon. Embrace the madness and take what you can get out of the system (legally, of course).

#88 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 6:01 pm

#58 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 3:28 pm

“Can we call this hyperinflation yet?” #32 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 2:24 pm

It’s clear from looking at my Earnings and Employment charts that deflation is in effect in the social contract: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Commodity and paper assets have inflated as in a bubble, yes.

CPI continues to be on mute: http://www.chpc.biz/interest-rate-spread.html

Hyperinflation? Nope.

CPI is not worth the paper it’s printed on. Houses are going up by double digits and have been going up way past CPI for over a decade yet we are around 2%?

The government has a vested interest in keeping CPI low (COLA on pensions for one thing) so you can’t expect them to be honest about it.

I was being facetious about hyperinflation. That said, gas in the Vancouver area has gone from $1.20 to $1.40 in a couple months. That doesn’t happen under a stable currency regime.

#89 Stoner on 02.14.21 at 6:04 pm

There is only one rule for Canada. Canadians love real estate and are voting for it as the only asset class they trust.
Everything else is wrong and I don’t blame them.
An asset’s value is determined by intrinsic worth + excess liquidity in the system. If excess liquidity is infinite and the servicing cost for the liquidity is zero, then why wouldn’t the asset price approach infinity.
The same rule applies whether the asset is Real Estate or Stocks or Bitcoin or Weed

#90 Lee on 02.14.21 at 6:05 pm

There will be no reckoning. This has been going on since 1997. It will continue pretty much until people cant afford one more dollar in monthly payments and prices will hold there. Whatever price you buy in at will be as low as you’ll ever get it for.

#91 Peter from New Westminster on 02.14.21 at 6:10 pm

New West

So why don’t you guys run for office if you are so much smarter and know so much? You are very quick to criticize, but I’m not hearing a lot of what you are doing to make the country and the government better for people.
——————————————————————
If politicians and potential politicians claim they are the best to serve the public and fail miserably and consistently, we have every reason to bitch about it, welcome to democracy and freedom.

On the flip side if the politicians do a great job and build a better country for all they deserve all the accolades and praise.
The Boneheads in Ottawa said they were, but the body of work shows otherwise. Anything less supports mediocrity and nobody benefits except the empty suits in Ottawa with their obscene benefits and pensions that an average Canadian can never achieve.

Hey New West I cant play hockey but I bitch about my Canucks, or should I lace up and show them? LOL

Welcome to public office and public criticism and scrutiny, comes with the territory.

On the flip side if the politicians do a great job and build a better country for all they deserve all the accolades and praise.

We deserve better leadership and we have every right to voice our concerns. We cannot and should not shut up

#92 Eyeguy on 02.14.21 at 6:14 pm

Garth, apart from selling one’s principal residence, can you recommend a way to profit from the potential decline in SFH prices when the migration in 416 and 905 slows and when mortgage costs increase? I’m a long time reader but may have missed your comments on a reasonable strategy. Can you comment or direct me to that column?

#93 Penny Henny on 02.14.21 at 6:16 pm

#70 Penny Henny on 02.14.21 at 4:14 pm
A majority of analysts believe equity markets will establish a long series of new highs in 2021 and 2022 as GDP expands and corporate profits reflect that. – Garth

/////////////////

Has there ever been a year where analysts predicted the market would go down?

Have they been wrong? – Garth
//////////////

I dunno,
2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2019.
I could be wrong too.

#94 Penny Henny on 02.14.21 at 6:19 pm

2019 or 2018?
don’t matter

#95 the Jaguar on 02.14.21 at 6:20 pm

This is kind of funny.

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/jack-knox-dear-alberta-when-alienation-builds-the-jokes-stop-being-funny-1.24275148

#96 Winnie the pooh on 02.14.21 at 6:29 pm

DELETED

#97 renter in Surrey on 02.14.21 at 6:29 pm

THs in the LM – lines of people at every showing.
Bids start at around $700K.
Looks like THs will go over $1mil by the end of this year.

“The troubled future of Canadian Real Estate….”

#98 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 6:35 pm

#68 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 4:04 pm

According to this article the geomagnetic storms that give rise to the aurora borealis can also cause electrical static in the atmosphere quite low down, so it would seem as if you are hearing the aurora. I guess for most people if the same thing is causing both what you see and what you hear that’s good enough.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/06/auroras-sounds-noises-explained-earth-space-astronomy/

#99 zee on 02.14.21 at 6:40 pm

Garth in 2017, when Real Estate was making new Highs you kept saying the market will correct itself and that govt does not need to do anything. You said that market was correcting when Govt stepped in.

And now 2021, when govt is not doing anything you seem to criticize them for not doing anything to control the market.

Read it again. – Garth

#100 Paul on 02.14.21 at 6:43 pm

#67 Winterpeg on 02.14.21 at 4:00 pm
Saw a thread by the Canadian Tax payers association sounding the alarm that the government is considering capital gains taxing primary residences.
You’ve done a piece on taxing primary residences before.
The government would have no reason to slow the RE trend if this were true, so there is some motivation for doing nothing to stop the climb in prices. A cash cow, would it be not?

Am coming around to the idea that taxing primary residences might be not such a bad thing.
Would it actually help slow the bubble?
————————————————————————————————
YES, that’s the ticket more taxes. Canadians taxes fix everything.

#101 Useless on 02.14.21 at 6:47 pm

This is the first time you’ve described housing as hyper inflation Garth. It must be getting bad. As quantitative easing is rolled back next year, do you think yield curve control will be implemented to keep rates suppressed?

#102 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 6:52 pm

Here’s an oldie that clearly explains debt:

https://medium.com/@ashutosh.vyas/the-rich-guest-paradox-2552f9f99b20

#103 Lee on 02.14.21 at 6:53 pm

Here is the problem buyers face. They buy a $1.5M home that is really worth $1.3, and then after a year or so, prices stabilize back at around $1.3M. Then rates go up enough over the next year that on $1M or so in mortgages you need $15,000.00 a year more to carry the mortgages when their renewal date arrives. That won’t be for another 2-3 years. Then when they renew they have to come up with $2,000.00 a month more for mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc. If you sell, you lose $100,000 in equity, and about $100,000 to agents, lawyers, moving costs, etc. Including LTT coming in you’re down about $200,000 on a sale. Of course, from what I see, people will hold on. They’ll raid Gramdma’s equity, cash in their RRSPs and TFSAs and “borrow” from friends. Somehow people will hold on and prices will hold, until the next virus. And then they will shoot up again. I think the solution is we have to stop worshiping at the house of house. That will never happen. In the end, what can politicians really do about this? They are really helpless to stop prices from roaring ahead. A constant theme in the comments over the years on this blog (I hate to admit I have been following that long) is that government will eventually step in and fix the problem. As Kevin O’Leary always says, if you wait for the government to do anything you’ll be old and gray, and it’ll be too late.

#104 Barb on 02.14.21 at 6:59 pm

Nicely done, Kris! Toe-tappin’ tune.
Lovely dog.
Be kind to each other.

#105 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 6:59 pm

#73 NewWest on 02.14.21 at 4:16 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.
___________________________________________

So why don’t you guys run for office if you are so much smarter and know so much? You are very quick to criticize, but I’m not hearing a lot of what you are doing to make the country and the government better for people.

———————————————

I’m game. What about you?

#106 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 7:01 pm

#63 the Jaguar

No place is perfect but I certainly would not trade it for any other part of this great country. We are lucky, sure, minus 34 today with the wind chill, but not that bad with the sun shinning and with longer days. Spent a couple of hours today snow shoeing. This Province is going uppa,uppa,uppa!
Do not miss the boom days whatsoever!!

#107 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:03 pm

In an update to the zero hedge article on US electric prices I posted here yesterday, which I won’t link due to colorful language, the following was added (among other things):

“The brutally cold temperatures also affected wind supply in ERCOT, generation for Feb. 15 was forecast to tumble down 52.5% to 27.8 GWh of generation as cold temperatures impacted wind turbines. DeAnn Walker, chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, said at a meeting on Feb. 11 that there were some “issues with some gas generation plants being curtailed” and that “wind turbines are all frozen,” further placing upward pressure on already sky-high prices.”

So apparently when it is cloudy and cold it is not just solar that is drastically reduced but wind as well. This I did not know.

They also talk about gas wells freezing up but that happens every time it gets cold. Normally the lost production is replaced with storage but as discussed yesterday the storage levels are in decline as is typical for this time of year.

The article talks about the potential that many customers could see $2,000 electric bills for February. So much for the stimulus.

Alberta natgas prices are up from below $3.00 on Feb 1st to over $5.00 today. Certainly not as bad as some US markets but it’s still going to sting as my furnace basically hasn’t shut off in 2 weeks. (It’s been cold, -26 for the highs, although improving slightly now. It’s a balmy -22 right now. -35 with the wind chill though, and wind chill does affect consumption although not as much as temperature.)

Oh and then I have to pay carbon taxes on all of that gas and electricity I am using. I think my eyes are going to water when I see the bills.

If I had full solar on the roof it might help a bit but I’d have to cut down a bunch of lovely trees to do it. And the sun is still pretty low in the sky so I think I’d still be buying power, especially at night when the sun is really low in the sky and the temperature drops even further.

#108 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:08 pm

#87 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 6:01 pm
#58 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 3:28 pm

“I was being facetious about hyperinflation. That said, gas in the Vancouver area has gone from $1.20 to $1.40 in a couple months. That doesn’t happen under a stable currency regime.”

OPEC probably had more to do with that than currency depreciation. Seems that they have decided they’ve beaten up on shale enough that it won’t be back on mass for a while.

#109 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 7:13 pm

Nonplused: besides the obnoxious video recorders if you actually listen you can hear the lights.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sounds+of+northe+lights&&view=detail&mid=2A054314219D15EA339D2A054314219D15EA339D&rvsmid=E90098E0B8CFF4A27E02E90098E0B8CFF4A27E02&FORM=VDRVRV

#110 Cici on 02.14.21 at 7:30 pm

Prices in my city aren’t nearly as stupid as Toronto and its outskirts, but they’re still way out of the ballpark in terms of what until now has been normal.

I know four people (with solid jobs and 20% down) who were looking to buy this spring but have already opted out. All are healthcare or government workers. One is single but the others are coupled, yet they all find current valuations too much of a squeeze, and beyond what the banks are even willing to lend them. And that’s just the asking prices; of course most of the sellers are expecting the final sale to be bid up beyond that.

Personally, I think a lot of dumb money is going to raid their retirement funds and their parents’ retirement funds just to get in on the action.

But where it goes from there is anyone’s guess, but it’s starting to look more and more like a casino and I think there’s a lot of instability directly under the surface. Even if the vaccination game goes according to schedule, I worry about how fast the economy will be able to recover. Especially since a third and more deadly COVID wave is expected to hit us in March, thanks to the new variants. I’ve also seen some big layoffs announced recently and if those continue, many households could be facing insolvency and foreclosure.

#111 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 7:31 pm

Sorry Garth, totally off topic but Nonplus kinda rubbed me the wrong way the other day stating that Northern lights do not make sounds. I have been away for the last few days working in the OUTDOORS of Alberta, trying to keep warm, witnessing all sorts of images that the cosmos shoots at us, absolutely majestic!

So with that persons comment the other day I decided to do a one minute search on YouTube; well and behold the first thing that popped up was a lector by Professor Carolyn Crawford @ Gresham Astronomy in England out of all places, she explains and identifies these anomalies. Nobody needed to tell me; millions of us that look up could have told this poster, but as I said; he rubbed me the wrong way as well as ridiculing the Red Deer poster. So, here it is!

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sounds+of+northe+lights&&view=detail&mid=E90098E0B8CFF4A27E02

#112 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 7:32 pm

#67 Winterpeg on 02.14.21 at 4:00 pm

Am coming around to the idea that taxing primary residences might be not such a bad thing.
Would it actually help slow the bubble?
—— —- ——

Yes it could, if it were done right. Heavy for the first 5 years, tapering to zero by 10 years. Win/Win.

The real question is, does the nose honking clown show we currently have running the country possess the southern brass required to get it right? By that I mean, tax with the goal of ending speculation instead of earning revenues, and doing so with some vigour. Can they handle some collateral damage to get the job done? They have been SO WEAK right across the board thus far…

#113 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 7:41 pm

#103 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#73 NewWest on 02.14.21 at 4:16 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.
___________________________________________

So why don’t you guys run for office if you are so much smarter and know so much? You are very quick to criticize, but I’m not hearing a lot of what you are doing to make the country and the government better for people.

———————————————

I’m game. What about you?
——

I vote, but no one is running a platform that lays out what needs to be done. So, for now – I’ll keep working to limit my funding of government. From where I sit, Canadians are getting exactly what they asked for with Trudeau.

#114 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:44 pm

#74 Brian Ripley on 02.14.21 at 4:23 pm

“If Canada can transition to electric transportation, Calgary may just indeed become a center for innovation, especially if Gen Z takes up the challenge of excelling at non-routine employment.”

You realize that electricity comes mostly from coal and natural gas, right?

And what is this innovation you speak of? Are our welders to “learn to code”? It is insulting when people speak like this.

Oh and I think Gen Z has already taken up the challenge of excelling at unemployment quite well.

#115 Rogerhomeinspector on 02.14.21 at 7:46 pm

Funny story.

In Kitchener here. Sold the family home in 2016 because prices got stupid and started renting. Got told by the landlords here they’re selling a couple weeks ago because they’ll get a ton of cash for the house.

Fair enough. That’s the risk of renting. But here’s the catch- place is a decent 3 bed bungalow. Listed for $545,000 when the owners paid about $200,000 5 years ago. Maybe put $15,000 into it.

We were being prepared for a flood of viewings- after all this is entry level housing prices around here. We were ready to essentially be out of the house all weekend as people came in to sniff through. Want to guess how many people we’ve had through? 3. 3 people have come through. I’m not sure what’s up, but there’s been no offers and offers aren’t being held.

This house should have been gone in 24 hours. But here it sits. Something tells me lenders aren’t being as generous at the entry end as it’s widely thought. Maybe not enough equity with a minimal down payment to make the inevitable deduction in prices worth the banks time? That would be saying something considering the feds will insure the deal.

#116 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 7:49 pm

I was thinking the other day, if things keep going the way they have been we’re going to enter into a time where appreciation on hard and liquid assets may start rivalling employment income.

If a peep owns a decent house in Southern Ontario, and has a good sized nest egg on the go – gains on these may well have surpassed his 9-5 efforts in 2020.

The future?

#117 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:51 pm

#107 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 7:13 pm

“Nonplused: besides the obnoxious video recorders if you actually listen you can hear the lights.”

You can’t “hear” lights. Especially lights in space. But the article I provided does explain that you do hear something at the same time caused by the same electro-magnetic storm. I chose to trust the science.

#118 Buford Wilson on 02.14.21 at 7:56 pm

Garth, don’t look to government regulation.

As always. our old friend Mr Market will provide the solution.

#119 Faron on 02.14.21 at 7:59 pm

#87 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 6:01 pm

That said, gas in the Vancouver area has gone from $1.20 to $1.40 in a couple months.

Maybe have a look at the price of oil over that period. Oil’s up more than 20% while your pump price is up only 16%. Inflationary pressure, yes but hardly debasement of the currency.

#120 Expel the Parasite on 02.14.21 at 8:01 pm

DELETED

#121 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:02 pm

My apologies Garth, directed to Nonplused, this is the closest description of what we heard 40 plus yrs ago, viewers (that are interested) make your own decisions, just providing you with actual facts. :)

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sounds+of+northe+lights&&view=detail&mid=E7C09887244F9BD1E64EE7C09887244F9BD1E64E&&FORM=VDRVRV

#122 James Douglas on 02.14.21 at 8:02 pm

Imagine if some version of normal in real estate doesn’t return as some suggest. What will be sacrificed to allow continuation of an exercise detached from its underpinnings? My guesses… Quality of life, Liberty, mobility, choice, and a Nation that doesn’t attract as much positive attention as it has lost its competitive advantages.

#123 Comments! on 02.14.21 at 8:16 pm

The blog has not predicted a crash, because one is not needed to cause widespread financial suffering. Flatlining prices and gently rising interest rates are all that are needed now for significant implications. – Garth

————————

Errr how do flatlining nosebleed prices at even higher interest rates help affordability?

Where did I suggest that? – Garth

#124 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 8:30 pm

#119 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:02 pm

My apologies Garth, directed to Nonplused, this is the closest description of what we heard 40 plus yrs ago, viewers (that are interested) make your own decisions, just providing you with actual facts. :)

—————–

It’s true. I can attest from life in Alaska that the aurora does indeed make sound. And science confirms per the link I posted the other day. .

Nonplused, the lights occur in the thermosphere which is part of the atmosphere. You’re wrong on both counts here. It happens.

#125 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:33 pm

#115 Nonplused

Oh for Christ sake, I am not saying that you can hear light, do you (not) understand that what I am trying to say that one “CANNOT” hear light but one can hear what light and other elements produces, such as sound waves. Think of it like a stroke of lightning with burst of sound from it. We all hear the loud boom!!! Thunderstorm!!!!

I give up, posters, make your own decisions, I know what we students witnessed and stand by it, I am an outdoors guy that have seen spectacular events out there. Loved every single minute of it! This is getting ridiculous!!! Stay safe everyone!!!!

#126 Humbled & Broke on 02.14.21 at 8:34 pm

Not one in a million citizens understand money. Money is confidence in your future, stored as a tangible value. Paper money is simply a denominated contract without specific title, the bearer being the benificial owner until he/she/it trades for value to an other party. Currency is just value in transit. Digital money is simply a computerized a counting system, like Bitcoin. It is money controled by the electronic company store. Property prices are not going up, money is “rotting down.” Money is being digitally printed into infinity. Money, like the booze at the public bar is a spirit thing. It is based on belief and trust.

Just like the (Fed) bartender who dilutes the public’s drinks with water, the Bank(rupt) Of Canada is diluting our dollar by digitally hyperprinting to infinity. As long as the party peaks no one notices the BOC watered hooch. Whiskey takes 12 years of your toil, time and skill to make, yet water is cheap to inflate the drink. Pure profit. Your savings are being fermented into nothingness. “Hard asset chasing” is an alternative type of run-on-the-bank. Covid is the titular head of the BOC running policy. We are already over the economic cliff. We just haven’t hit the bottom. Even when you are in the 1% seat of the billionaire limousine class everything remains comfortable and smooth until you hit the bottom of the canyon floor. We’re airborne now, and everything feels just great. Reality slows down in the back seat as you feel the rush of the wind in your hair while your making scads of rotting dollars. As history has proven, hyper asset booms do not have happy endings. Trees do not grow to the sky ever upward. The reckoning is upon us.

#127 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 8:51 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 7:41 pm
#103 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#73 NewWest on 02.14.21 at 4:16 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 2:23 pm

#4 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 1:07 pm
Next time we should vote with more care.

————————————————

Because the Conservatives would do a better job? Please…
They’re all cowards looking out for their own interests.
—- ——-

After Trudeau, I think we’d all be better off if we just left Ottawa vacant from here on in.
___________________________________________

So why don’t you guys run for office if you are so much smarter and know so much? You are very quick to criticize, but I’m not hearing a lot of what you are doing to make the country and the government better for people.

———————————————

I’m game. What about you?
——

I vote, but no one is running a platform that lays out what needs to be done. So, for now – I’ll keep working to limit my funding of government. From where I sit, Canadians are getting exactly what they asked for with Trudeau.

—————————————

Who cares what the other political platforms are. If they don’t meet your expectation, it’s time to come up with your own. Burying your head in the sand won’t change anything. Maybe you have exactly what you deserve.

Can’t say that I like the Bloc Québécois but Lucien Bouchard sure knew how to capitalize on an opportunity when it presented itself.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.14.21 at 8:54 pm

@#123 Drinking
“I am an outdoors guy that have seen spectacular events out there. Loved every single minute of it! ”

++++

Yep.
Ive seen the Northern Lights in Summer and Winter.
Ab…soo….lutely amazing.

And that’s the point.
A breathtaking natural wonder that can’t be replicated on a screen.

#129 IM in C on 02.14.21 at 8:58 pm

Back in 1968 Dr. Morton Schulman (author of the book Anyone Can Make a Million) was asked: What should the average Joe do to build wealth. His advice: go out and buy the biggest house , in the best neighborhood, that you can possibly afford.

#130 David on 02.14.21 at 9:02 pm

What I am seeing around my area is nothing short of insanity, prices up 40 percent since last year. Neighbor just listed this weekend and the flow through of people is unimaginable, and he is already asking 50 percent more than last year’s prices. Delusional with a large D. This is a leafy subdivision in Sauga.

#131 Comments! on 02.14.21 at 9:19 pm

#121 Comments! on 02.14.21 at 8:16 pm
The blog has not predicted a crash, because one is not needed to cause widespread financial suffering. Flatlining prices and gently rising interest rates are all that are needed now for significant implications. – Garth

————————

Errr how do flatlining nosebleed prices at even higher interest rates help affordability?

Where did I suggest that? – Garth

———————————

Affordability is our biggest problem. The scenario that you depict will be even worse for those who want to buy. Today’s absurd prices at higher rates would be disastrous for new buyers and probably won’t bother pandemic FOMO buyers one bit. Prices need to plop 40% and even more in some markets Then again, rates are going nowhere significant. 2% measly prime and US equities had a stroke in late 2018 at full employment, with nowhere near the money printing and no virus. Didn’t recover until rates were hacked down to next to nothing again.

We have all been with you Garth on real estate since 2008. But the lunatic central banks destroyed any chance of something positive coming from the pandemic. We now have even more perversely distorted stock markets and absolutely unthinkable real estate values instead of price discovery value investing and house prices that needed badly to revert to the mean.

Job well done.

#132 westcdn on 02.14.21 at 9:22 pm

I have budgeted to 85. May live longer but less likely – time comes quickly. Means I have left than half the tank left, I will have e an estate to my daughters but then they will be pushing 60.

So what is the point? I say stick it up your arse, “building back better”. My grandchildren matter more.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=grateful+dead+shades+of+grey&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=grateful+dead+shades+of+grey&sc=2-28&sk=&cvid=618B49F53334464A88A61EEFB56036BF
A song from the Grateful Dead – I will survive.

#133 Do we have all the facts on 02.14.21 at 9:25 pm

Inflated home prices siphon off investment capital and add very little to economic growth. Canada does not need to support the purchase of assets that do not contribute to the economy. Increasing the money supply by issuing large mortgages is extremely shortsighted since the crisis facing Canada how to compete in a global economy in the midst of a quantum shift.

We need to invest in industries that will not only create employment but contribute to our balance of trade. Our financial institutions seem focussed on the low hanging fruit and this focus must change.

I urge our governments to look around the world and begin taking notes. Liquidating non-renewable assets only works for as long as demand remains strong. How many shoes have to drop?

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.14.21 at 9:28 pm

@#124 Apocalypse2021
” As history has proven, hyper asset booms do not have happy endings. Trees do not grow to the sky ever upward. The reckoning is upon us.”

+++++

Far more eloquent than your previous posts.

#135 Also in Cowtown on 02.14.21 at 9:32 pm

#119 Drinking

That is a very cool link, thank you for posting!

#136 Departure bay on 02.14.21 at 9:39 pm

#38 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:34 pm
Just remember debt is only a construct. If it can’t be paid, it can’t be paid. Bankruptcy, a few meetings… all cool.

Look to your dog for advice. Tell him he owes you money. No reaction. Now tell him there’s bacon. See the difference? Bacon is real.


That was deep… i was moved.

#137 Ustabe on 02.14.21 at 9:40 pm

#123 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:33 pm

#115 Nonplused

Oh for Christ sake, I am not saying that you can hear light, do you (not) understand that what I am trying to say that one “CANNOT” hear light but one can hear what light and other elements produces, such as sound waves. Think of it like a stroke of lightning with burst of sound from it. We all hear the loud boom!!! Thunderstorm!!!!

I give up, posters, make your own decisions, I know what we students witnessed and stand by it, I am an outdoors guy that have seen spectacular events out there. Loved every single minute of it! This is getting ridiculous!!! Stay safe everyone!!!!

As someone who has had the distinct privilege to observe the Aurora Borealis in northern Manitoba, northern Saskatchewan, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories over the years I understand what you are saying.

My recall of the times noise accompanied the visuals was a sound much like you’d imagine silk sheets making as they fluttered in the breeze, a soft woosh, woosh, woosh. Most of my sightings have been devoid of any noise however.

However, in addition to seeing the green I have on more than a few occasions seen the blue and less so the red. Magical when they are a rainbow above you and that only happens under very specific circumstances.

#138 Doug t on 02.14.21 at 9:49 pm

#135 ustabe

Mushrooms make the northern lights absolutely surreal

#139 Deano on 02.14.21 at 9:50 pm

Garth, check out my hood of Brantford….houses going for 100k to 200k and above asking, always under 6 days on the market. I’ve lived here more than 10 years, I can tell you, its really not awesome. Ok place to raise a family for sure, but not the sort of place you should spend 800k for a so-so bung on.

#140 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 10:13 pm

#135 Ustabe

Thank you Ustabe, there is comfort to hear individuals like you understand and what I suspect that many of us has seen and witnessed. It is good to hear of another that has experienced the same. We are lucky! :)

#141 Terry on 02.14.21 at 10:14 pm

Vote?……….it doesn’t matter anymore. Your vote means nothing. “They” will just always cheat to win now. This world is so toxic and broken. Just make yourself comfortable where ever you are. It’s over……it just hasn’t collapsed yet……….wait for it………it’s almost here.

#142 Jm on 02.14.21 at 10:14 pm

I love talking to my dog, great song.

#143 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 10:46 pm

#125 The Woosh on 02.14.21 at 8:51 pm

“Who cares what the other political platforms are.”

I do, I plan on voting for one of them.

“If they don’t meet your expectation, it’s time to come up with your own.”

The hell it is. I do great no matter what party is running the show. No party has, or will; ever meet my individual expectations. Same for you and every other voter who has ever lived.

“Burying your head in the sand won’t change anything.”

That’s why I’m busy lowering my tax remittances – you should get busy too if you don’t like what’s going on in Ottawa.

“Maybe you have exactly what you deserve.”

That’s good news, because I have more than enough.

#144 Lead Paint on 02.14.21 at 10:47 pm

“Talking To My Dog “ Good job! Great to do something creative and constructive during lockdown.

#145 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 11:03 pm

#133 Also in Cowtown

Great, glad you enjoyed it; this is exactly what we heard over 40 yrs ago; long before cell phones… :)

#146 Regjeg on 02.14.21 at 11:18 pm

What a beautiful face! ❤️

#147 Dr V on 02.14.21 at 11:28 pm

100 Sail away – you must be new here. Been told many times on this blog. Works better when the nurse is a woman of pleasure. Cant believe she took credit.

Oh, and the tourist was Mark Carney. He injected liquidity, then withdrew it when it was no longer required.

#148 the Jaguar on 02.14.21 at 11:33 pm

@#112 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:44 pm++

You forgot to add that a little “heavy oil bitumen” might come in handy for smooth paved roads, unless all those Teslas and similar EV’s want to zip around on dirt roads. For dog sakes people, wake up and realize the answer is not better cars, but less cars.
Let’s invest in RAIL! It’s the way forward. Bring essential industry back home, reinvest in rail transport and everybody buy a stinkin’ Vespa or similar equivalent to tool around on in their neighbourhoods.
I’m talkin’ REVOLUTION!! WHEN I HEAR THE WORD DEMOCRACY I REACH FOR MY PISTOLLA! That would be a Smith & Wesson Model 29.

O.K., I’ve calmed down now. Might turn on the CBC National to see if my jab is ready yet or if I need to steady my nerves with some other type of chemistry.

The way things are going the litmus test for intelligence is going to come down to 4 or 5 basic questions about the future of powering the world. While variation in response on a minor scale might be a ‘pass’, real gaps in grasp of reality will be very evident.

It’s hard to believe that in such a supposed time of ‘human enlightenment’ so many have been so sucked into the big lies. Mercy.

#149 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 11:45 pm

#135 Ustabe on 02.14.21 at 9:40 pm
#123 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:33 pm

#115 Nonplused

Look, dudes, I am not saying there isn’t sound associated with the northern lights, the article I linked says there definitely is. But what you are hearing is not what you are seeing, it is the charged particles interacting with the lower atmosphere. The charged particles cause both, but one is up in space and one occurs where you are standing.

I think you could think of it as the video playing on your 52 inch TV but the sound coming from your 5 channel Dolby surround sound stereo system.

#150 kommykim on 02.14.21 at 11:45 pm

RE: #123 Drinking on 02.14.21 at 8:33 pm
#115 Nonplused

Oh for Christ sake, I am not saying that you can hear light, do you (not) understand that what I am trying to say that one “CANNOT” hear light but one can hear what light and other elements produces, such as sound waves. Think of it like a stroke of lightning with burst of sound from it. We all hear the loud boom!!! Thunderstorm!!!!

I give up, posters, make your own decisions, I know what we students witnessed and stand by it, I am an outdoors guy that have seen spectacular events out there. Loved every single minute of it! This is getting ridiculous!!! Stay safe everyone!!!!

=======================================

What you are hearing in those videos is electromagnetic radiation (Very low frequency radio waves) in the 20Hz-20Khz range which you cannot hear directly. If you connect an audio amplifier to a very long wire, such as a barbed wire fence you’ll hear the “sounds” of the Aurora Borealis through the speakers.
Actual sound is the vibration of air molecules. You cannot hear EMR unless there is some sort of a transducer to convert the electromagnetism to sound even though it is in the same frequency range of normal human hearing.

#151 Spectacle on 02.14.21 at 11:52 pm

Important to note ::

“Why does government not care? In fact, are politicians purposefully facilitating this? Is their silence condoning house lust, speculation and panic?”

This could be as close as we will ever see Sir Turner ever get to posting anything possibly viewed ( eg: stupid cbc media etc) a “conspiracy theory”. But it’s not. It’s the true, fact we are living in a covid market. And we Thank You for posting Sir.

Canada will never get better, until Garth simply Threatens a return to the highest office. Your blog hits will be 250,000 per night, and your contribution fo Canadian history will be Legend! You can only do better, even if you never show up for work. You have my vote.

And a Thanks to Turner Nation #1 tonight. Your effort here is a welcome contribution as always! Please keep it up. Thanks.

#152 Axehead on 02.15.21 at 12:30 am

I think we here in Alberta live in another country. Our housing is depressed; has been for the last 8 years. Housing prices have either gone down or remained the same during this time period. Guess that’s what happens when political spineless jellyfish deasease infects all levels of government: federal to provincial to municipal.

#153 Tim123 on 02.15.21 at 1:08 am

Housing prices have risen to all time highs during the middle of a worldwide pandemic with double digit unemployment. This is the opposite of what you would expect, but with the economy being flooded with liquidity the opposite happened. It is inevitable that inflation will go up as all of this money printing tends to do that. Interest rates will also increase by the end of the year so some sort of correction will happen in real estate.

#154 Nonplused on 02.15.21 at 1:17 am

#109 IHCTD9 on 02.14.21 at 12:45 pm

Yup this is the way of things, and it is kind of what I mean when I discuss whether something can “scale”. Wood stoves are wonderful if you live in the country and have 140 acers of forest you’d like to convert into pasture, if it is just you. But if everyone and their dog tried to heat with wood there would be no forests.

It is the same thing with solar and wind. Sure, it can be great if it is just you and a few others utilizing favorable government regulations and subsidies, but if we all tried to do it then it is going to be very cold in the winter, outside and inside. And you aren’t going to the grocery store because there is no power to charge the EV.

I am kind of indifferent on EV’s, because as you know if you read my comments I think they run mostly on natural gas and coal. But they have no emissions at point of use and there are some economies of scale to putting all the environmental controls at point of generation. If you want one, go ahead and buy one and find out for yourself if you really saved any money once the battery needs changing.

But I think basic economics should prevail. If you are only buying that EV or installing solar because of government subsidies, you might personally benefit, but the economy never will. At this point, the technologies are developed enough that there should be no subsidies or preferential treatment. But instead we get regulations that say “no more ICE’s by 2035”. If that was economic, the invisible hand would do that all by itself without any influence from government and their crayon colored proposals.

#155 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 02.15.21 at 1:42 am

Venezuela is a failed state..even China won’t touch them. I mean if China sees you as a no-go. You is in the sewer. The thing is Venezuela has oil and good weather. Canada has oil and bad weather.

#156 The West on 02.15.21 at 1:45 am

Well written and apt. The bottom half of society is being driven into destitution and a futureless existence. I don’t suspect anyone on this blog is in that category. (pretty sure everyone here is wealthy beyond their wildest imaginations, right) But, it is the correct action to care. Whether it was rightfully intended, or not, Trudeau (as well as Freeland and their handlers at the CFR) have pulled the bottom out from underneath Canada’s economy – its just that the financially, and socially, illiterate don’t quite understand what has happened yet. They will.

You should reach out to Poilievre – you two have a lot in common. Do not let intimidation, or station, chase the truth away. We must be better men than that.

Great piece Garth.

#157 Lead Paint on 02.15.21 at 1:50 am

#131 Do we have all the facts on 02.14.21 at 9:25 pm

Well said! But don’t hold your breath…

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.21 at 3:19 am

#84 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 5:54 pm
#56 Don Guillermo on 02.14.21 at 3:21 pm
#40 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:37 pm
A note this morning from friends in Alaska:

‘On Friday the phone rang. “Do you want to get the covid vaccine today?” Yes! I wonder if my 76-year old husband could also get it. He doctors at xxxxx (My health service is xxxxxx) Yes he could! Hurrah. Now in about a month they’ll call to tell us when we can get the second dose.’

————

Three American couples are coming back to our condo complex this coming Monday. They waited to get their second shots before booking flights. One couple from Austin Tx (in their 70’s). one couple from Seattle (60’s & 70’s) and one couple from Ft. Worth Tx (early 60’s). A fourth couple (mid 50’s) are expecting to arrive in a week or two from Denver.

————-

Yeah, the US seems to have this whole healthcare thing figured out. Wish Canada would.
—————-
Of course, Biden and Fauci are in charge.

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.21 at 3:39 am

#135 Ustabe
As someone who has had the distinct privilege to observe the Aurora Borealis in northern Manitoba, northern Saskatchewan, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories over the years I understand what you are saying.

My recall of the times noise accompanied the visuals was a sound much like you’d imagine silk sheets making as they fluttered in the breeze, a soft woosh, woosh, woosh. Most of my sightings have been devoid of any noise however.

However, in addition to seeing the green I have on more than a few occasions seen the blue and less so the red. Magical when they are a rainbow above you and that only happens under very specific circumstances.
——————-
You had the privilege of witnessing?
Do you need an invitation?
Specific circumstances?
Sure, I heard some people saying that they heard “Lucy in the Sky” while observing the spectacle.

#160 Guelph Guru on 02.15.21 at 4:28 am

The cost for 100k mtg:
@2.5%: 448
@5%: 581
So, a 600k mtg, which I’m guessing is the avg will only cost 800$ more. With all the inflation coming, that would be the amount you give the homeless on your way home. Or. One more renter in the basement should cover that. No worries. Let the orgy continue.
Disclaimer: I rent so don’t care.

#161 NSNG on 02.15.21 at 6:06 am

#117 Faron on 02.14.21 at 7:59 pm

#87 NSNG on 02.14.21 at 6:01 pm

That said, gas in the Vancouver area has gone from $1.20 to $1.40 in a couple months.

Maybe have a look at the price of oil over that period. Oil’s up more than 20% while your pump price is up only 16%. Inflationary pressure, yes but hardly debasement of the currency.

That was an example. Along with housing prices, have you looked at your grocery bill lately? Mine is up about the same percentage as gas and I know my eating habits have not changed.

Even the McDonald’s chicken muffin went from $2.50 to $3 the last time I drove through there.

#162 willworkforpickles on 02.15.21 at 6:17 am

Debt is the biggest issue as the larger it grows the more it slows growth.
Unemployment is rising…with the standard of living dropping. National and individual struggle is increasing. Inflation is up. More debt is being issued. Investor/bond/debt holder confidence in the country’s ability to keep adding on to the debt and servicing ii is faltering.
Interest rates will soon be forced up and continue to rise so to attract debt holders to take on more national debt.

The difference from the previous decade of national debt creation is the overall debt to GDP ratio, now stretched to the breaking point that will soon give way.

Bond/Debt structure differences between Canada and the US mean little when it comes to interest rates for Canada’s economic survival dictates keeping rates in sync.

The pent up demand boomerang expected later this year should not be confused with real growth as the buying surge will later fizzle after prices and inflation surge over much demand for fast diminishing supplies.

The chickens will come home to roost in 2022. National and personal debt will explode higher…interest rates will be forced…literally be forced higher, then higher still.

Real growth will be forced to take a back seat to rising rates to avoid national default…even in the face of immense (real this time) recessionary…depression or worse still…stagflationary pressures.

5% rates aren’t even out of the question sometime in 2022.

Higher rates can’t happen based on what ?
It would kill the RE boom, the markets and the economy?
It really is different this time. This will kill the country/s by default not raising rates which would then lead to a much worse outcome than a protracted recession.

#163 BillyBob on 02.15.21 at 6:37 am

I’ve got a zillion aurora borealis pics, here’s a few randos I took operating a flight from Taipei to Frankfurt on Christmas day, 2017. The routing out of Taiwan goes straight north to avoid North Korean airspace before transiting over northern Russia. These were taken somewhere over Yakustsk FIR if I recall.

https://ibb.co/jgZCmpT
https://ibb.co/1rRfC8n
https://ibb.co/TvpJ59B
https://ibb.co/54pkgXp

Can see the oil and gas flares on the ground in a couple shots. The Russians are a bit more pragmatic about not leaving their wealth in the ground than we are.

Speaking of Russians, I’ve yet to meet any I didn’t like, and I’ve met more than a few. You don’t want them for enemies, but more loyal friends you will never, ever find.

Just make sure you’re clear on which they consider you.

#164 willworkforpickles on 02.15.21 at 6:48 am

Debt debt and more debt is going to have quite a reverse affect on real growth going forward now.
It really is different (now).
More (QE) will soon start to have a reverse affect on interest rates.
The good old days of wonderful debt creation keeping rates low are soon ending.

#165 willworkforpickles on 02.15.21 at 6:57 am

Oh they will raise taxes like mad at first so as not to have to raise rates too much right away…but how far will slapping band-aids on bullet wounds get us.

#166 maxx on 02.15.21 at 7:34 am

@ #7

Would that these healing changes come to pass. People are generally too stupid for words with their money.

Canada’s economy is rapidly turning into a one-trick pony. The federal finance minister should be all over this……zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz……

Guess gubbmint across the nation is incapable of juggling more than a ball or two.

#167 Tudval on 02.15.21 at 7:54 am

There are a number of things that can be done about the inflating 905. First among them is do nothing. The bubble is already reaching it’s expiry date as the pandemic ends and the migration back to the city starts. But letting the free market work its magic is usually not the first thought in the mind of an activist politician. A new tax is, of course. So since every ‘solution’ will revolve around that line of thought, implementing a land transfer tax similar to what Toronto has, makes most sense (for them, of course).

#168 X on 02.15.21 at 8:29 am

re:#43 the Woosh

Sadly, it is all too common for those who overpaid 5 years ago. Listing, re listing, just to get out and break even.

Bottom line, is don’t overpay, in any market.

I suspect some buyers this spring will get themselves into a bind by over bidding or overpaying. Not all buyers though, no doubts many will pay a resonable price for their home and life will go on just fine.

#169 NSNG on 02.15.21 at 8:50 am

#38 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:34 pm
Just remember debt is only a construct. If it can’t be paid, it can’t be paid. Bankruptcy, a few meetings… all cool.

Look to your dog for advice. Tell him he owes you money. No reaction. Now tell him there’s bacon. See the difference? Bacon is real.

Debt is only a construct until you go to your banker and tell him you need to borrow more to maintain your profligate lifestyle.

Just like your dog. No reaction.

#170 Dharma Bum on 02.15.21 at 8:57 am

#116 IHCTD9

If a peep owns a decent house in Southern Ontario, and has a good sized nest egg on the go – gains on these may well have surpassed his 9-5 efforts in 2020.

The future?
——————————————————————-

More Dharma Bums.

The scenario you envision is a reality.

If you own assets that produce more income than what your soul sucking, aggravating, annoying, pointless job does, why keep it?

Bum around and enjoy life instead. It’s really, really short.

https://forum.wordreference.com/threads/the-dharma-bums.3487933/

#171 Oakville Rocks! on 02.15.21 at 9:08 am

@#64
“In my part-time gig as Avatar masquerading as clown car chauffeur I sometimes converse with the common folk in both GTA and also GVA, the two epi-centres of ‘lost their minds-ness”.

Any discussion on the topic of real estate which gently nudges at the possibility of a ‘correction’ and corresponding negative impact on finances is treated as a blasphemy. What follows is usually a lecture on what “world class cities are all about”, etc.”
========

I have lived in the GTA most of my life (save for a few years in each of Kingston and Montreal) and I have never heard my friends use the phrase “world class city” when discussing real estate or house prices. Discussions pretty much mirror Garth’s observations – this is crazy?, who can afford this?, where is this money coming from?, should I sell now and bank this?

When I hear people say that real estate will only keep rising (and sure there are some who believe this) they usually say it is because they believe Toronto continues to attract the bulk of Canada’s immigration and people want to live here.

Your comment strikes me more as what someone in Alberta would think Torontonians discuss. But then again, none of my friends would use authentic in a sentence either.

Back in the day, when I was dating, if a date mentioned “authentic” I knew I was in for an evening discussing the Four Agreements, or The Secret or the latest nonsense to fall out of Oprah or GOOP’s mouth or god forbid Deepak Chopra. Learning to stifle the eye roll response took some doing.

To be fair, politicians from Lastman to Miller to Ford (Rob) to Tory all use “world class city” but more often than not it is when discussing the subway or infrastructure or the missteps developing the water front.

Calgary – an amazing city with interesting public art, friendly people and mountain views. And Chinooks, shirtsleeves in mid-January loved that. I like your mayor too.

Keep it real!

#172 Phylis on 02.15.21 at 9:15 am

#155 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 02.15.21 at 1:42 am. Nice observation. Let’s take a tangent to further the thought. So as climate change rolls over us, the motivator for economic activity will decrease. No need for hats, mitts and trips. Shanties will suffice, affordable housing for all. Government supplied tents for the lucky ones. If we fail together, we wont notice, especially if we fail slowly.
Just saying our climate is our culture. It will change. Plenty of southern examples to observe.

#173 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 9:17 am

I post this on this topic here every few years, though maybe not often enough.

Standing timber has a set commodity value in every locality. Felled and stacked in truckable dimensions roadside for pick is the first value add with another specific set value.

Trucking to a nearby residence or which ever place of further process has a set contract rate in each locale.

Bucking (called blocking) fuel wood to short length and then as splitting to suit size preference are the next two values added. Any of all of these stages can be do it yourself or individually subcontracted.

Or, going back to that same value roadside wood, the other option is longer costlier ride to a factory to be pulverized and processed into pellets, and with more expense then shipped to a distributors warehouse. Now the much more value added wood rides in yet another truck to a retailer for even further mark-up and profit before being then sales taxed and delivered to the final consumer.

If I lived anywhere other than GTA, such as say, Prince Edward County, even if the Hardware Chain Story was giving away pellet stoves as a promo, I’d say nope!

The only value of a pellet stove outside of the GTA would be in it’s weight as scrap metal. With the price of natural gas in the GTA, I doubt there would be any use for pellets anyhow. Can’t use them with out the nuclear power Ontario flatlanders lovingly call hydro anyhow.

I’ll probably bring this up for the third time in a few more years, to assist the next generation of readers.

#174 Another Deckchair on 02.15.21 at 9:25 am

@170 Dharma, @116 IHCTD9

We’ve been in the position of not only having our investments go up more on paper than our salaries bring in, we’ve also been living on about 1 salary.

And, we were making good coin.

The toughest thing is (I believe) getting ones’ head around not feeding the savings machine after so many years of doing just that. First world problem…

#175 Penny Henny on 02.15.21 at 9:34 am

Hey Garth can you please tell Nonplussed to shut up.

Thank you.

Or maybe he can start his own blog.

#176 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 10:03 am

@#171 Oakville Rocks! on 02.15.21 at 9:08 am
Don’t know who you hang out with, but it isn’t just Lastman/Miller/Ford who have used the phrase world class city, and also ‘Toronto is the new New York’ is another one. In Vancouver it’s more ‘International City”.
Lived in Toronto, and even Oakville for a couple of years. It’s not the same place anymore.
As for Nenshi, he isn’t that popular here anymore and if he runs for Mayor this fall he won’t win. People are tired of his condescending comments.

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 10:18 am

@#163 Billybob

Interesting photos.
The last one is my fave.

Judging by these pics, I guess you “bus drivers” dont just sleep the whole way on auto pilot……..

#178 Kato on 02.15.21 at 11:13 am

173 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 9:17 am

I’m pretty sure most wood pellets (certainly for heating if not cooking) are pressed sawdust. On the west coast, at least.

#179 Howard on 02.15.21 at 11:29 am

Dallas, Texas is heading for an overnight low of -19C, and the Gulf Coast near Houston will be around -10C. Record-breaking cold for Texas.

I know weather is not climate, but it’s interesting that whenever this occurs in reverse (Labrador at +35C in July, or something), the usual suspects proclaim the end of the world.

#180 Don Guillermo on 02.15.21 at 11:42 am

#179 Howard on 02.15.21 at 11:29 am
Dallas, Texas is heading for an overnight low of -19C, and the Gulf Coast near Houston will be around -10C. Record-breaking cold for Texas.

I know weather is not climate, but it’s interesting that whenever this occurs in reverse (Labrador at +35C in July, or something), the usual suspects proclaim the end of the world.
**************************************
No matter your opinion on climate change, when it doesn’t support your narrative it’s called weather. When it does, it’s a once in a lifetime (or 100 year) catastrophe.

#181 Sail Away on 02.15.21 at 11:52 am

#169 NSNG on 02.15.21 at 8:50 am
#38 Sail Away on 02.14.21 at 2:34 pm

Just remember debt is only a construct. If it can’t be paid, it can’t be paid. Bankruptcy, a few meetings… all cool.

Look to your dog for advice. Tell him he owes you money. No reaction. Now tell him there’s bacon. See the difference? Bacon is real.

————-

Debt is only a construct until you go to your banker and tell him you need to borrow more to maintain your profligate lifestyle.

Just like your dog. No reaction.

————-

Haha. Very good. The banker deadeyes you for a few minutes, then reclines his chair for a nap.

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 12:14 pm

@#179 Howard.
“Dallas, Texas is heading for an overnight low of -19C, and the Gulf Coast near Houston will be around -10C. Record-breaking cold for Texas.”

++++

Minus 10 in the Gulf?
Wow.
Lotsa cold pelicans this week.

#183 pPrasseur on 02.15.21 at 12:15 pm

“When leaders don’t care, why should we?”

Don’t care of don’t have a clue?

This is a government manufactured crisis after all, the least you could expect is that they’d understand what they’ve done, but nope, not even close.

This dollar is becoming more worthless every day, what a shocker!

#184 pPrasseur on 02.15.21 at 12:17 pm

“I know weather is not climate, but it’s interesting that whenever this occurs in reverse (Labrador at +35C in July, or something), the usual suspects proclaim the end of the world.”

Climate scare is a bubble, a herd phenomenon, just like RE.

#185 New Green Squeal on 02.15.21 at 12:33 pm

With Texas experiencing extreme cold and rolling blackouts it’s amazing that people still think that “Green Energy” is a thing. There should be a special class of voters who are the only ones who can vote on implementing energy policy. Voting should be limited to those who can do demonstrate proficiency in Grade 10 math and physics.

That would stop this New Green Deal BS dead in it’s tracks.

#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm

#173 Wrk.dover on 02.15.21 at 9:17 am

… even if the Hardware Chain Story was giving away pellet stoves as a promo, I’d say nope!

The only value of a pellet stove outside of the GTA would be in it’s weight as scrap metal. With the price of natural gas in the GTA, I doubt there would be any use for pellets anyhow. Can’t use them with out the nuclear power Ontario flatlanders lovingly call hydro anyhow.
—————

Pellets had their day for primary heat, but that day is coming to an end I think. I’m on heating season #16 with a pellet stove as primary heat. When I started, pellets were cheap, a top end stove was affordable, it was a good option. Today, many of the small players are gone, the big ones remain (and got bigger), the industry has matured, reliable market share is now established among the players, and it has reached the point where everyone in the industry is working together instead of competing tooth and nail. It’s time to start thinking about changing things up.

For me, that looks like wood heat (from free skid wood, buying firewood here is north of 300.00/bush cord, and I don’t own a wood lot) as a supplement to pellets. For now…

I’ve put more than 140,000 lbs of pellets thru my stove since the day I installed it, and I will say there is no more convenient way to burn wood. But they are very high maintenance, and parts are expensive. Rarely will you get through a heating season where it doesn’t need fixing somewhere along the line. For me, they NEED to provide cheap heating, or they’re not worth the trouble. It looks like those days are over.

#187 BillyBob on 02.15.21 at 12:57 pm

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 10:18 am
@#163 Billybob

Interesting photos.
The last one is my fave.

Judging by these pics, I guess you “bus drivers” dont just sleep the whole way on auto pilot……..

—————————————-

Nah, never a good idea. Go too long without answering the radio or something and next thing you know, your colleague is like “Say, isn’t that a MiG-29 at 10 o’clock? Wonder what HE wants?”.

Actually, in Russian airspace that would be best-case scenario.

#188 Damifino on 02.15.21 at 1:07 pm

#185 New Green Squeal

There should be a special class of voters who are the only ones who can vote on implementing energy policy.
———————————-

There should also be a special class of consumer willing to be the first to have their power cut in the event green “alternatives” can’t meet demand.

They would also be willing to pay more for the burden placed upon utilities required by law to incorporate unreliable energy sources into their systems yet maintain 100 backup capability using hydrocarbons.

Then, I’d be cool with “green”.

#189 Linda on 02.15.21 at 1:09 pm

#68 ‘Winterpeg’ – I don’t think taxing PR would do much if anything to ease the bubble. If anything it could even inflate it further, with sellers wanting ‘extra’ to cover the cost of the tax payable to the government. Also, this wouldn’t do anything to address the revenue issue that government has. In my opinion, the calls to tax PR will lead to taxes like occupancy or empty homes taxes on a federal level, just as have been imposed in Vancouver B.C. A continuous annual revenue stream, not one that depends on the owner selling. As for the sliding scale rule proposed, so anyone who is buying RE as a flipper simply has to wait longer for the reward. Hold that investment ‘long term’ until the tax hit is zero then sell. Or if the government permits exemptions based on necessity sales – work relocations, providing care to ill family members etc. – how likely is it that most if not all sales would be able to take advantage of the loophole?

#190 Faron on 02.15.21 at 1:32 pm

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.21 at 12:14 pm

@#179 Howard.
“Dallas, Texas is heading for an overnight low of -19C, and the Gulf Coast near Houston will be around -10C. Record-breaking cold for Texas.”

++++

Minus 10 in the Gulf?
Wow.
Lotsa cold pelicans this week.

Pretty cool weather pattern. Whenever I’ve been out on the plains in winter, that feeling of a wide open door between you and the arctic is palpable. Makes for way more interesting weather than here in Vic.

You are right, weather is not climate. I briefly looked at the temperature record for Dallas and it was in the upper 70s F a couple weeks ago.

Doesn’t say anything about climate change until a detection and attribution study has been done. There is a theory out there that loss of sea ice actually leads to more cold air outbreaks, not fewer.

The stats as of the 13th for the US as a whole were 292 new high temperature records set over the past 365 days and three, yes three, low temperature records set in the US. In a stationary time series, the number of records set would be even 1:1 this is 100:1 in favour of hot. The low records will get a big bump this week, but after 2021 is out we’ll almost certainly see severely lopsided high temp records as we have for decades now. That’s climate change and it is caused by us.

You hear outcry when the Arctic is hot because the implications of such are much much greater than the implications of a few cold days in texas. Sure, the citrus crop is going to take a hit, but that will all recover. A hot arctic eats away at yet more multi-year sea ice which is becoming irreversible. Yes, that does matter.

#191 Faron on 02.15.21 at 1:39 pm

#188 Damifino on 02.15.21 at 1:07 pm

#185 New Green Squeal

There should be a special class of voters who are the only ones who can vote on implementing energy policy.
———————————-

Then, I’d be cool with “green”.

Idiotic nonsense.

But, I’ll take you up if you agree to live in the flood plains of your local large river or on the receiving end of record high heat and humidity in Mississippi. Within 30 years you. will. be. squirming. If you are alive.

I’ll have suffered a few cold days in the early decade and then live in comfort all the remainder. Or, if I built a small, tight home, I’d be comfy from day one. Enjoy the swelter/living on your roof!

#192 Brian Ripley on 02.15.21 at 2:07 pm

re:

“You realize that electricity comes mostly from coal and natural gas, right? #114 Nonplused on 02.14.21 at 7:44 pm

The transition to electric transportation is going to require massive innovation which humans have demonstrated is possible (the Manhattan project, inter-planetary space exploration etal).

Here is one innovation aimed at the household level:

https://legionsolar.com/index.html
First item on the FAQ page:
Legion Solar employs our game changing concept called Solar Regulator™, a technology to contain generated energy behind your meter where the utility company does not own, enabling you to generate your own electricity without restriction. As a result, you avoid having to pay for costs normally built into traditional solar systems such as resellers markups, professional installation, sales rep overhead, workers comp insurance, permits, regulatory other fees. We’ve designed Legion Solar to be lean and mean, where you’re paying only for the necessary items to get the job done making Legion Solar 300% more affordable than tradition solar systems.

I can recommend Yuval Noah Harari’s work on human history and it’s trajectory: https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095

Not long ago we humans had no indoor plumbing.

We can solve these problems.

ps… Harbour Air here on the west coast:

“Harbour Air to add zero-emission electric plane; aims to convert whole fleet” https://vancouversun.com/business/energy/harbour-air-to-add-zero-emission-electric-plane-aims-to-convert-whole-fleet

I intended no insult to you or anyone else in my post.

#193 Ustabe on 02.15.21 at 3:11 pm

#186 IHCTD9 on 02.15.21 at 12:53 pm
…For me, that looks like wood heat (from free skid wood, buying firewood here is north of 300.00/bush cord, and I don’t own a wood lot) as a supplement to pellets. For now…

What is a bush cord? Around here you will find some who try and sell a face cord (4x2x8) for around $100 but we use a guy who sells a full cord (4x4x8) for around $150. So, full cord of 128 cubic feet is $150.

Immediately where I live trees are ageing: branches as thick as your thigh are falling, wind is decapitating, etc. So one neighbour or another is always having some “overhead liability” taken down. Most no longer even have a fireplace and are very happy to accept my offer of free yard clean up. Just a few weeks ago finished moving, splitting and stacking almost 3 cords (one tree, big one, eh?) from two houses down.

As to pellets, don’t know about whole house stoves but I have a 12V pellet smoker for camping and 20 lbs of hickory pellets are close to $40. Good thing you don’t really use that many on a rack of ribs or a grill full of split trout. And it is a finicky thing, replaced the control panel twice, the hot rod twice, the auger motor once and so far its all warranty even tho I’m years past the published warranty term…never know for certain if its going to work every time I go to use it.

#194 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? on 02.15.21 at 9:12 pm

Re: #176 the Jaguar on 02.15.21 at 10:03 am
@#171 Oakville Rocks! on 02.15.21 at 9:08 am

….As for Nenshi, he isn’t that popular here anymore and if he runs for Mayor this fall he won’t win. People are tired of his condescending comments.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nenshi doesn’t care, he got his work done for Flames owner Murray Edwards (Mount Polley mine disaster fame, who ran to the UK to hide right after the dam burst) by fleecing you Calgarians for a new hockey rink.
How much you want to bet Murray’s got a nice board seat for him since Calgary is on the hook for ~$300 million plus of HIS cost!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/arena-deal-finalized-1.5385406
So sick of the