To the moon

Were they false flags?

The big negatives of last week included (a) rotten jobs numbers with 213,000 more positions lost causing the unemployment rate to course back above 9%, and (b) the even rottener job the feds are doing with the vax rollout. That was capped off with a Bloomberg estimate that at this rate it will take 7.4 years to dose the world and get us back to normal. Holy crap!

Well, don’t believe it. Financial markets are betting that things move a lot faster and further. The case for optimism is growing, despite Covid variants, bumbling politicians, minus 47 in Alberta, Robin Hoodies and the prospect this might all mean Drake and Adele start performing again.

First, look at the equity markets. Record levels in New York. A homerun for the Nasdaq. And, wow, an all-time high on Bay Street, too. Commodity prices (oil, copper) are going up on the expectation of rising global demand as economies reopen. The memory of both Trump and 1/6 are fading fast (despite the impeachment trial); Biden’s boffo stimulus package will pass; and US treasury secretary Janet Yellen is forecasting full employment by next year (that will halve the current jobless rate).

Look at the S&P 500, for example. It’s ahead 4% so far this year (it’s barely February) and 19% year/year. Same for the Dow and the TSX in Toronto. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 8% in 2021 and is 47% past where it sat a year ago. Even a boring, pedantic, don’t-wake-me-up balanced & diversified portfolio gained close to 8% in 2020 when Covid ripped through every expectation that humanity had.

Hey, and did you check out what Mr. Bond Market’s been up to?

Despite the lousy news last week, and even in the face of a new all-time mortgage low of just 1.25% for a fiver posted on Thursday, bond guys are aroused. The 30-year US Treasury has hit 2% – a big deal – and in Canada it’s expected our five-year debt will soon break out of a tight trading range, and not look back.

Why?

Simple, the market expects economic reopening, growth and inflation in the second half of 2021. The belief is that (a) government stimulus will continue, (b) the dosing of the herd will accelerate dramatically, (c) consumer spending will leap higher as blinking WFH shut-ins emerge into the sunlight flush with saved cash and (d) central banks will taper off their wild bond-buying as the pandemic panic fades.

By the way, have a gander at preferreds. Rate reset prefs rise along with interest rates (or the expectation of them) and lately they’ve been heading north. These were flaming bargains last year as the cost of money plunged, giving investors not only a steady, tax-efficient 5% dividend, but also the certainty of a capital gain once Covid started to succumb to vaccines. And it’s begun.

Says mortgage broker guru blogger Rob McLister: “Economists believe that the greater the percentage of vaccinated Canadians, the greater the probability that rates creep higher. Mortgage shoppers who buy into that argument must ask themselves, how much longer do I want to gamble on falling rates? Our answer would be, not much longer.”

You bet. And a mess of buyers aren’t waiting. Look at the latest real estate stats.

January sales in the largest market leapt 54% year/year and the average selling price increased over 15%. It’s expected to top $1 million in the next couple of months. Demand for detached houses grew 34% and prices ballooned by an annual 31%. Yes, we’re back into 2017 Bubble territory, but this time governments will be standing on the sidelines, looking in the other direction. No intervention. No cooling measures. No more vexing about affordability.

Governments at all levels are quite prepared to let ‘er rip, since houses most people can’t afford plus an out-of-control market is preferable to what we’ve just been enduring.

Says the board’s realtor/economist: “Looking ahead, a strengthening economy and renewed GTA population growth following widespread vaccinations will support the continued demand for both ownership and rental housing.” And did you catch the condo numbers? Sheesh. Sales ahead 85% in January, and exceeding listings growth. Apparently a mess of people haven’t heard that urbanity is toast.

“Big cities are not dead,” says broker Stephen Glaysher. “Humans are social animals and when downtown regains its appeal, people will come back. Work from home is not for everyone. Office towers will still be needed. In fact, Shopify and Amazon have just committed to lease another 200,000 sq. ft. of space downtown.”

His forecast: herd immunity happens by July. The international students and new immigrants arrive by September. And then some of the condo prices seen in late 2020 will look quaint.

What does all this mean?

Expect froth. In 2021, everything goes up. Golden retriever pups are already $3,000.

200 comments ↓

#1 Globe and Nailed it! on 02.08.21 at 2:56 pm

Cathal Kelly of the Globe is always a read that makes me chuckle. The clarity of the dude, and ability to look at things from another angle are always enjoyable. Here is a fun one:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/basketball/article-the-nba-takes-pandemic-moralizing-to-dizzy-new-heights/

Above article is a GOLD MINE of fun stuff! Here are two gold gems from the piece, to make it easy for you to enjoy…

We have reached the point in pandemic sports where the COVID-19 plan is figuring out how to get around having a plan. What leagues want now is the appearance of a plan. What they actually have is a firm commitment to continue playing up to and including the point at which everyone is infected all of the time.

OR HOW ABOUT THIS LITTLE TREASURE!…

Everyone’s done their own risk assessment, and now lives accordingly. The only rule most people follow any more is maintaining the appearance of strictly following the rules.

Oh Cathal…you crack me up. So true…so true.

#2 Jimmy Zhao on 02.08.21 at 2:58 pm

Why bother impeaching Trump. He’s gone, let him ride off into the sunset already.

#3 Peter McLean on 02.08.21 at 2:59 pm

Oh excellent. I absolutely cannot wait for my cost of living to skyrocket.

#4 $3000 puppies? on 02.08.21 at 3:00 pm

Well, that’s not going to help the puppy trade at $3000 a piece, is it now?

I hope these responsible puppy sellers give $1000 of that $3000 to support organizations that will in the near future deal with spike in abandoned animals once the pandemic “ends” and we can go out to a club, concert, bar, game and are hung over next day. Thus we’ll be too tired to deal with the constant need of a dog to poop and dog owner’s responsibility to scoop.

#5 Ray Skunk on 02.08.21 at 3:00 pm

Vaccinated Canadians?

Vaccinate with what? Hopes and unicorn farts?

I expected better analysis from these respected economists than for them to believe the BS spewed unchallenged from the Cottage Podium(tm).

#6 Globe and Nailed it! on 02.08.21 at 3:00 pm

Cathal Kelly of the Globe is always a read that makes me chuckle. The clarity of the dude, and ability to look at things from another angle are always enjoyable. Here is a fun one: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/basketball/article-the-nba-takes-pandemic-moralizing-to-dizzy-new-heights/

Above is a GOLD MINE of fun stuff! Like this one…

We have reached the point in pandemic sports where the COVID-19 plan is figuring out how to get around having a plan. What leagues want now is the appearance of a plan. What they actually have is a firm commitment to continue playing up to and including the point at which everyone is infected all of the time.

OR HOW ABOUT THIS LITTLE TREASURE!…

Everyone’s done their own risk assessment, and now lives accordingly. The only rule most people follow any more is maintaining the appearance of strictly following the rules.

Oh Cathal…you crack me up. So true…so true.

#7 Leftover on 02.08.21 at 3:05 pm

Herd immunity is already on the horizon in India:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-cases/2021/02/04/d7f92f72-6562-11eb-bab8-707f8769d785_story.html

So, in addition to re-set preferred shares, Emerging Market ETF’s are on a tear too. Smart people might sell their Kits beater and look at some pretty safe alternatives.

$3,000 for a golden retriever? Those same smart people above might consider adopting a senior dog from the SPCA, they’re great companions and they need homes.

#8 Calgary on 02.08.21 at 3:07 pm

https://www.mining.com/nickel-demand-for-evs-expected-to-shoot-up-in-the-next-20-years/

https://www.reuters.com/article/mining-canadanickel-idUSL1N2KB25A

Nickel shortage, ban nickel export; especially to USA.

#9 TurnerNation on 02.08.21 at 3:11 pm

What’s really going on: Prince’s hit song “Party Like It’s 1999”.
You’ve heard it. At parties, weddings. Before those got banned under communism.
What happened after 1999?

1. A .Com stock market crash. Tons of new retail investors lost everything, lured by the prospect of trading online.

2. Sept 11th. Of course Travel became the target. At once all persons became ‘suspected t3rroirsts’.
Humiliation followed, all Compassion was removed from the system: long line ups at security; Grandmas getting groped; nonsensical rules to be followed, like nail clippers seized but matches allowed. All passengers had to remain seated in final 1/2 hour of flight or something like that. Because t3rrorists you know! For your safety.
More humiliation followed, the Nude Body Scanners. Indefinately the Patriot act with tracking & monitoring of everyone, was put into place.

3. 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Tons lost their homes in USA. Globalist corps like Blackstone group swooped in and bought up the defaulted stock of homes, as rentals. Pensions went bye-bye.

4. 2020. Of course Travel became the target. At once all persons became ‘suspected sick’.
Humiliation followed, all Compassion was removed from the system: long line ups outside stores, muzzles; nonsensical rules to be followed – essential vs non essential goods, arrows on the floor. You need a cancer check-up or a needed surgery? Too bad. For your health.
More humiliation followed, @nal swabs.

– 2020 this time the globalists didn’t mess around. You became Essential or Non Essential and your income was wiped out for good – in many industries. The globalists ordered your business closed.

************

#75 Nonplused on 02.07.21 at 6:53 pm

Ski hills. Big White out West just signed a big contract for tracing, tracking of visitors, staff by way of A.I. all to “prevent the spread of CV”.
Humans are to be tracked as animals. So much money in this. It is a brutal compassion-less system let by Big Tech and the A.I. Politicians are simply its enablers. The global Shutdown was just the start to kick off rollout of this New System.
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/02/08/loop-insights-signs-four-year-venue-management-agreement-through-telus-iot

– This TSX-listed company does the same at arenas, workers, including in Canada:
https://stockhouse.com/companies/news?symbol=c.tsf

– Another TSX listed co deploys A.I. automated Temperature scanners and facial rec camera into school busses (!) in USA.
– Facedrive (FD.TO) has real time body temperature monitoring of its food delivery service drivers. And wearable tracking devices already deployed to Air Canada and LIUNA labour union. To stop the spread of CV of course.
– Amazon just announced all its delivery drivers will be monitored by A.I. – many cameras and sensors in the vehicle.

#10 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 3:18 pm

#5 Ray Skunk

Unicorn farts?

———————

Ray, I’d like you to know that I would take the UNICORN FART vaccine without any trial or efficacy data being published. I am ready to take my chances fully with the UNICORN FARTS vaccine.

I’m quite certain EVERYONE at greaterfool.ca would also take it without any objections.

By the way, is the Unicorn Fart vaccine rainbow color? And did you know that Unicorn is just another way of saying “one corn”?

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:22 pm

@176 Penny Henny
“I am curious about one thing though Faron, other than your partner do you have any friends?”

++++

I’ll be Faron’s friend if she PROMISES to never ever EVER invite Ponzie over while I’m visiting.
Its a bitterness thing…….

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:24 pm

@#10 Unicorn Farts

“By the way, is the Unicorn Fart vaccine rainbow color? And did you know that Unicorn is just another way of saying “one corn”?”

++++

Impressive.
Stealing my “thunder” is no easy task.

#13 Brendan H on 02.08.21 at 3:33 pm

Hi Garth! Thanks for the great advice. For us noobs – how about tossing out a few preferred tickers which may be worth considering!? Don’t suppose there’s an ETF for that!?!
Thanks for all you do – from sunny Victoria!

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 3:33 pm

#10
By the way, is the Unicorn Fart vaccine rainbow color? And did you know that Unicorn is just another way of saying “one corn”?
——————————
No, a Unicorn is a corn that went to Uni and has a PhD.

#15 George on 02.08.21 at 3:33 pm

BTC – $42,000

Visa’s Kelly is on board, and of course Elon with big news today

to think, it was once mocked as the next tulip :)

What’s backing BTC? Oh, look. Nothing. – Garth

#16 Tron Light on 02.08.21 at 3:38 pm

#10 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 3:18 pm

“I’m quite certain EVERYONE at greaterfool.ca would also take it without any objections.”

Not me, not at this point anyway. I will wait until the phase three trials are over and the outcomes studied and publicized.

#17 Rook on 02.08.21 at 3:39 pm

So. Real estate that’s already basically unaffordable for Joe Canuck will sky-rocket and become even unaffordable-er!

I don’t get where people are coming up with these down-payments. I thought only governments could create money out of thin air?

#18 T-Rev on 02.08.21 at 3:39 pm

“ Golden retriever pups are already $3,000.”

And worth every penny. I’m a dog lover and have shared my life with everything from mutts to collies to jack Russell’s to malamutes, but I’ve never met a dog like my current retriever. I’ll never go back to another breed so long as I live. Most amazing beast I’ve ever had the privilege of knowing.

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 3:41 pm

Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 1:37 pm
#156 Sara on 02.08.21 at 12:37 pm

In my family, I (not hubby) is the investor.

———-

In my family, I is also the investor.
—————————-
Have to correct the grammar:

In my asylum, I is also the Napoleon.

#20 S.Bby on 02.08.21 at 3:44 pm

Unfortunately we can’t look at the stock market to be a reliable predictor of the overall economy. The market is being driven by historically low interest rates and excessive money “printing” that has to go somewhere.
Market confidence and euphoria are at all time highs.

I do think we are ignoring too many other signs that will bog us down in 2021 like the emergence of Corona super-strains and vaccine shortages. I doubt we will be done with this ordeal in 2021.

#21 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 3:52 pm

#10 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 3:18 pm

And did you know that Unicorn is just another way of saying “one corn”?

——

Not really, and only in modern parlance. ‘cornu’ is actually Latin for ‘horn’.

Further to the corn thing, though: there was no actual corn (maize) in biblical lands, but there are numerous references to stockpiles of corn, since corn was actually a generic term for a single plant grain. Then, when South American maize was discovered, it was called corn generically and eventually usurped the name entirely.

I learned this because I was a little unclear about the whole ‘horn/corn’ connection, and dutifully researched the same.

#22 T-Rev on 02.08.21 at 3:57 pm

I think crypto is bound to end in tears, although I’ll admit that BTC might have an advantage given it’s status as the first and most widely known and accepted.

You can give me all your fancy geek-speak, but here some simple facts:
– There’sNothing backing it.
– There’s zero control on the supply. Yeah yeah, BTC has a finite and inalterable amount of coins that will be mined…but there’s nothing to stop an unlimited number of other cryptos from being created, meaning a potentially unlimited supply of money, which will render all of it worthless.
– It will come under regulation at some point, thereby devaluing its appeal as an Untraceable and unregulated currency

My 0.00000048 BTC worth.

#23 Dave on 02.08.21 at 3:57 pm

I’m glad the international students are coming back next year, who else could we sell condos to?

#24 Westcoaster on 02.08.21 at 3:59 pm

Not sure if today’s blog,is sarcasm or?

#25 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 4:00 pm

What’s backing BTC? Oh, look. Nothing. – Garth

Unicorn Farts back BTC Garth. UNICORN FARTS!

They’re all the rage now. I bet you unicorn farts smell like cotton candy – every color/flavor.

#26 Millennial 1%er on 02.08.21 at 4:02 pm

It’s quite literally free money

#27 Ed on 02.08.21 at 4:03 pm

Justin needs to give Vlad a call…

Sputnik V’s 92% efficacy in peer review rivals U.S., EU shots

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-06/putin-s-once-scorned-vaccine-is-now-a-favorite-in-pandemic-fight

#28 wallflower on 02.08.21 at 4:04 pm

One tidbit I have read is reverse mortgaging is on a tear and parents are handing over cash to spawn for down payments from said maneuvre.

In response to:

#17 Rook on 02.08.21 at 3:39 pm
So. Real estate that’s already basically unaffordable for Joe Canuck will sky-rocket and become even unaffordable-er!

I don’t get where people are coming up with these down-payments. I thought only governments could create money out of thin air?

#29 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 4:08 pm

“His forecast: herd immunity happens by July.”

That from a Broker. OK.

It’s at least 76% per Manaus, Brazil. That many there have had Covid and still cases on the rise spectacularly – going back to last year so it’s not just the Brazil variant, the old fashioned one mostly. Best guess so far, no other evidence exists in the World.

32M Cdns 15 years or older. Canada has so far vax’d about 1M at least 1 dose (907K 1 dose, 182K 2 doses). In Feb max 0.5M Cdns receive 2 doses each (1.06M doses total per Gov Canada in Feb). 22 wks March to the end of July.

Herd Immunity min. = 32M x 0.76 = 24.32M

REQUIRED
1.5M vax’d already incl. Feb, not really but err on the liberal side. Cdns needed to be vax’d for Herd Immunity end of July:

= 22.82M/22 weeks
= 1.04M Cdns vax’d/week (2 doses each)

CURRENT TO DATE
V-Day or Vax Day Dec. 14, 2020. 7 weeks since then. Cdns vax’d in that period:

= (0.907M+0.182M)/7 weeks
= 0.16M/week

ACTUAL << REQUIRED

Put it another way, Canada needs to deliver about 9M doses per month into the arms of Cdns from Mar until the end of July (= 22.82M x 2 doses ÷ 22 weeks x 4.33 avg weeks/month).

Maybe? Maybe not?

————————————

Happy about the Markets outlook, excellent and may they continue to churn out wealth at epic rates.

All for it!

#30 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 4:09 pm

#13 Brendan H on 02.08.21 at 3:33 pm

For us noobs – how about tossing out a few preferred tickers which may be worth considering!? Don’t suppose there’s an ETF for that!?!

———-

Yes, there are indeed a number of ETFs. I like CPD.

#31 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 4:10 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz

Stealing my “thunder” is no easy task.

crowdedelevatorfartz, I would hope you would run silent, run deep and not release any thunder sounds on a crowded elevator.

By the way, when is the last time you were on a CROWDED ELEVATOR? That’s so…2019! I think crowded elevators are against the law now – you’re contraband, illegal, forbidden fruit.

#32 Rodney on 02.08.21 at 4:14 pm

Look at the S&P 500, for example. It’s ahead 4% so far this year (it’s barely February) and 19% year/year. Same for the Dow and the TSX in Toronto. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 8% in 2021 and is 47% past where it sat a year ago. Even a boring, pedantic, don’t-wake-me-up balanced & diversified portfolio gained close to 8% in 2020 when Covid ripped through every expectation that humanity had.

Blah, Blah, Blah and more Blah.

Your beloved stock market will come crashing down, as it did last year, but this time in April.

Actually the stock market on our planet did very well in 2020. – Garth

#33 IHCTD9 on 02.08.21 at 4:16 pm

#31 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 4:10 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz, I would hope you would run silent, run deep and not release any thunder sounds on a crowded elevator.
___

IE “Silent, but Violent”

#34 Malcolm on 02.08.21 at 4:18 pm

Not really optimistic of herd immunity by July. Tam is saying she doesn’t know what is required for herd immunity: 60%, 70%, or more?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7501905/canada-coronavirus-herd-immunity-unknown-tam/

Now studies show the Asta Zeneca vaccine isn’t effective with the African variant.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine-variant-concern-1.5905367

Canada’s 2020 population is around 38 million. In order to reach 70% vaccine rate we need 27 million vaccinated or infected Canadians. With 2 dose vaccines, that’s 54 million doses. The way the gov’t has handled this so far, I don’t see Canada getting 54 million doses in 2021. This will end I just don’t think it will end in 2021.

#35 Pete on 02.08.21 at 4:19 pm

The only ones frothing are the speculators who already have too much cash and need a relatively safe place to invest while the the middle and poor take anxiety meds.

#36 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 4:20 pm

Prior Comment, error on purpose…

= 22.82M/22 weeks
= 1.04M Cdns vax’d/week (2* doses each)

*actually 1 dose.

Hey, trying to make the numbers work in favour of July. 1 dose at least 50% immune, better than 0% immune.**

Jully a hard sell but I tried.

——————–

** still the issue of 5% fully vax’d do not get immunity, Pfizer or Moderna. Hopefully other vax types take care of that.

…and they call me a Doomer.

If you find better more Liberal Math, let me know.

#37 George on 02.08.21 at 4:24 pm

Unfortunately we can’t look at the stock market to be a reliable predictor of the overall economy. The market is being driven by historically low interest rates and excessive money “printing” that has to go somewhere.
Market confidence and euphoria are at all time highs.

……….

correct.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

lol

and folk wonder why BTC is rising? its not rocket science

#38 Guelph Guru on 02.08.21 at 4:28 pm

Yes. Oil is having a nice party after being in the dumps for a long time. Good for us.
No doubt that the bulls will rule 2021. All the same, most of the scripts are in overbaught region. A correction is due and will be nice to create a base to launch to mars.

#39 Dharma Bum on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

***ANNOUNCEMENT***
Today I received dose #2 of the Moderna vaccine.
So far, so good. Nothing has fallen off.
The day after receiving the first dose, I felt a bit “off” – a little lethargic, lazy, and sleepy. It could have been psychological, because I tend to feel lazy and lethargic quite often as it is. No “flu like” symptoms, though. I didn’t feel “sick”.
This time around, the doctor administering the inoculation said that I would be feeling worse than I did after receiving the first dose. We’ll see. Right now I’m fine. Well, except for the fact that I just happened to wrench my back – but that’s another story.
Anyway – I’m all vaxed up, dogs.
Ready to travel, work, fly on planes, eat in restaurants, work out in gyms, drink in bars, socialize in mass gatherings, go to hockey games, play hockey, shop in stores, and walk around mask free! Hooray! It’s over! What’s that you say? The rest of the country isn’t getting vaccinated for another year and a half? Nothing’s opening? Canada is 38th among civilized nations in rolling out the vaccine? Awww…bummer! Well, at least I won’t have to wait in line at the vaccine drive through in 2022.
But then again, I might. We’ll be on our 5th variant by then. Oh well. I’ll use my vax passport while I can.

#40 Faron on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

#180 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 3:01 pm
#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm

https://ocean.si.edu/sites/default/files/styles/photo_full/public/chrisjordan1.jpg

or

https://ocean.si.edu/sites/default/files/styles/photo_full/public/chrisjordan5.jpg

But at least The Jaguar is feeding the corvids refined wheat to help keep them warm at night.

Sail Away, you also confused seas and swell way back when, so… not an oceanographer. I don’t doubt your expertise at the helm and experience on the ocean though.

I also never see CO2, so it must not be a problem (or a help). Water vapour too (prob help). I’ve walked past superfund sites and they seemed pretty clean. Strange. I guess that stuff doesn’t exist. Crap, quantum and statistical mechanics tell me there’s a nonzero chance I could walk through a closed door, so maybe I should just stop using doorknobs?

Hilarious how when I jump on here and vigorously argue against a few nun-chucks everyone thinks I’m “mad”. Sure, I would rather be continuing the ski tour from this weekend, so I could be happier if I were actively making powder turns right this second, but I’m certainly far from mad/angry/whatever. Mostly just laughing at you and pitying your archaic world views so that I can confirm all of BillyBob’s stereotypes. Did it work Billy?

#41 Howard on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

#20 S.Bby on 02.08.21 at 3:44 pm
Unfortunately we can’t look at the stock market to be a reliable predictor of the overall economy. The market is being driven by historically low interest rates and excessive money “printing” that has to go somewhere.
Market confidence and euphoria are at all time highs.

I do think we are ignoring too many other signs that will bog us down in 2021 like the emergence of Corona super-strains and vaccine shortages. I doubt we will be done with this ordeal in 2021.

———————————

I think the virus will continue to fade but I also believe there will be a post-pandemic deflationary period as seen in 1920. The current blowoff top has a good 4-6 months left to complete.

Deflation just as the global economy reopens? Another great prediction. – Garth

#42 alexinvestor on 02.08.21 at 4:32 pm

It doesn’t matter what backs BTC. I mean, what backs government bonds … printers ? Will the BOC raise interest rates with 9%+ unemployment … likely not. We are all living under the illusion that all these assets are what we say they are worth, but they are not. It’s just that the allocation of losses is going to be troublesome (credit to William White).

Financial repression in one form or another is coming.

#43 Penny Henny on 02.08.21 at 4:34 pm

Meanwhile in the Niagara region.

Real Estate sales.
January 2020 vs January 2021

Listings-down-23.5% (816 to 624)

Sales-up 11.2% (457 to 508)

Home Price Index-up 27.2% ($435,000 to $553,200)

Days on market- down 48.5% (56 to 29)

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/files/January%202021%20Monthly%20Stats%20Package%20-%20Complete.pdf

#44 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 4:38 pm

#34 Malcolm

54M from Mar to Dec @70% immunity (probably higher per Manuals, BR @76%) over 10 months.

5.4M doses per month delivered. Not out of the realm of possibility.

Based on current vaxing, no way BUT manufacturing (Pfizer) to pick up a lot in 2nd Qtr what they are saying here in VAX Hog Rogue Union (EU). Also, by Summer Novavax will be delivering (52M dose contract w/Canada). March Canada starts to get some AstraZeneca (20M dose contract).

Maybe, maybe not doable.

I like your Math better. Mine says 9M doses per month to achieve 76% herd immunity by end of July.

Yup, your Math better (doses/month), just not the timing (end of 2021).

By April we should have a good idea if Trudeau will have his “All vax’d by Sept end” goal. See if the Rouge Union was correct about a manufacturing uptick by then (provided they don’t HOG it all for themselves).

#45 Ben @ SmartBorrowing.ca on 02.08.21 at 4:40 pm

I’m not sure real estate appreciation will continue in the GTA at least. Lately I’ve seen many houses showing up for sale in several Toronto neighbourhoods and hear the same is happening in Oakville and Mississauga. Many people are trying to cash in on the inflated prices, but would there be enough buyers to soak all the new inventory?

#46 T on 02.08.21 at 4:44 pm

#13 Brendan H on 02.08.21 at 3:33 pm

For us noobs – how about tossing out a few preferred tickers which may be worth considering!? Don’t suppose there’s an ETF for that!?!

———

ZPR is a good one. I really like TD.PF.A for the 45% so far.

#47 AACI Home-Dog on 02.08.21 at 4:45 pm

One of these days, Alice….Pow!…To the moon!…

#48 Diversified in Mississauga on 02.08.21 at 4:46 pm

4% of the portfolio in Crypto, Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Thanks a bunch Elon!

#49 Justin S on 02.08.21 at 4:51 pm

#18 T-Rev on 02.08.21 at 3:39 pm

I’m not a dog person at all, but I grew up beside neighbours with a golden retriever. To this day, that’s the best dog I’ve known, by far.

#50 JR on 02.08.21 at 4:53 pm

What’s backing BTC? Oh, look. Nothing. – Garth

Bitcoin is backed by a public blockchain ledger that contains proof of all the transactions on the network. Bitcoin is limited in its supply, making it rare, just like precious metals like gold. It is a commonly conceived idea that Bitcoin has no value just because it is not backed by anything physical.

Nothing is nothing. The key is no central banks, no governments, no power to tax. There is only one eventual outcome here. – Garth

#51 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 5:00 pm

Deflation just as the global economy reopens? Another great prediction. – Garth

Inflation like crazy I think. Pent up demand. Awash in cash after stimuli. The latter why I think Markets will go bananas 3rd Qtr onwards. They’re going nuts now, I cannot imagine what 3rd Qtr will look like, stratospheric?

——————————

#43 Penny Henny

“Home Price Index-up 27.2%”

My boring “set it and forget it” ETFs, in less than a year are up +25.1 to 27.6%, 3 of them (meagre as my investment is). VAX single stock up 158%, less than 6 months, etc. (again modest $ here, not like this Blogs Richie Rich readers).

BEST of all: No mortgage or borrowings were needed to get those returns. No maintenance either, well, tax returns for the dividends.

Nor do you have to live in Niagara either.

RE. I hate it. A Canadian disease with lifelong debt servitude as the malady.

Buy for a home not as an investment and within your means I say.

Garth is correct, that’s what the markets are for (investment) and ETFs, brain dead as they are, they’re the easiest, safest and in the future offer superior returns to RE (or GICs, or Deposit Accounts, or…) by far.

#52 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 5:03 pm

#40 Faron on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

Sail Away, you also confused seas and swell way back when, so… not an oceanographer. I don’t doubt your expertise at the helm and experience on the ocean though.

———

No, F, in fact I did not, although it may have seemed that way to a bystander. Let me explain:

as I recall, someone was talking about 30′ swell during a day’s fishing and I commented that in 30′ swell, a small fishing boat would be toast. The reason for this is that there is no such thing as 30′ swell- that does not, and cannot happen on the open ocean, since the resisting force of gravity is far too much for any passive or far-distant active force from wind to create 30′ swells. 30′ waves are indeed possible, of course, but the only way a regular 30′ wave is possible is in an active gale or hurricane, and will only build to this sea state after many hours or days of consistent wind of 45 knots or better and even then, 30-footers are fairly rare as a combined wave. As soon as winds drop below this, the waves drop below 30′. 30-footers are only active waves, usually with the tops blowing off and breaking.
Further, there isn’t the slightest chance any recreational fishing boat would have gone out in a gale forecast and there isn’t the slightest chance waves could have built to 30′ from flat calm during a day of fishing. But I didn’t necessarily want to write all this at the time. Happy to do it now, though, for your edification.

This feels like playing keep away with my 3yo nieces and nephews when they continually manage to catch me out- again, darn it!

#53 Brian Ripley on 02.08.21 at 5:06 pm

“Expect froth” Garth

Yeah… it’s already here; my Toronto Housing Charts are up with January data:
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

Total sales-to-listings produced a 94% absorption rate in Toronto as buyers pushed detached and townhouse prices up to new peaks.

IN TORONTO:
Res-Listings down 67% from MAY 2013 high
Res-Sales down 46% from JUN 2016 high

Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 94%
Current Months of Inventory = 1

Toronto SF Detached Price
NEW PEAK PRICE JAN 2021
Up 151% in last 10 years

Toronto Town-House Price
NEW PEAK PRICE JAN 2021
T-Houses are priced at 59% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.7 Townhouses

Toronto Condo Price
Down 9.8% from FEB 2020 Peak
Condos are priced at 44% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.3 Condos

Single Family Detached Houses and the TSX Real Estate Index have increased in price over ​the last 10 years by:​
125% in Vancouver
23% in Calgary
151% in Toronto
53% in TSX Real Estate Index

If Vancouver is a model for housing valuations in Canada, Toronto still needs to add another $400,000+ onto their average detached prices.

#54 jal on 02.08.21 at 5:07 pm

The reason that I come here and read the comments is to hear the positive side of the K recovery cause by the printing press.
The negative side, +60%, will be trying to get into “warming house” as the temp. is forecasted to go to – 10 in Vancouver. Warning are being given out to people to check, to verify, to make sure, that their furnaces are operating properly, since this might be the first time that the furnaces start this year, and may cause CO poisoning.

#55 Howard on 02.08.21 at 5:10 pm

Deflation just as the global economy reopens? Another great prediction. – Garth

———————————-

Economy never really closed for the top 2/3 of income earners. They were spending less and saving more, that is true, but they also took out obscene amounts of new debt during the same period to spend mostly on illiquid houses in the suburbs. So it’s sort of a wash as far as velocity of money. History has shown that high private debt is deflationary. Moreover a not-insignificant number of businesses that employed the bottom 1/3 (restaurants, hotels, small mom-and-pop shops) are closed for good. They are not going to simply reappear a few weeks after 80% of Canadians are vaccinated. Elevated unemployment should remain for quite some time.

Equity markets are in the early stages of a euphoria, which is great. I’m participating. I was too young to participate in the 1999/2000 euphoria – this is fun! And I’m also planning my exit strategy several months from now, since I know all euphorias come to an end.

#56 Shortymac on 02.08.21 at 5:10 pm

I’m happy for my balanced portfolio, I bought into an index fund that follows the S&P500, plus some others, and made a decent return last year 12% overall.

Sucks that the interest rates are going to stay low so the housing market it just going to inflate more, eventually some sanity has to return to the market but I have no idea when that is going to be.

#57 Bert on 02.08.21 at 5:12 pm

I think this is a great place to buy USD despite the consensus for a collapse. The US / China trade deficit is narrowing. This is bullish for USD.

#58 Stone on 02.08.21 at 5:16 pm

By the way, have a gander at preferreds. Rate reset prefs rise along with interest rates (or the expectation of them) and lately they’ve been heading north. These were flaming bargains last year as the cost of money plunged, giving investors not only a steady, tax-efficient 5% dividend, but also the certainty of a capital gain once Covid started to succumb to vaccines. And it’s begun.

———

It began back at the end of March 2020. Nice super juicy prefs for a bargain (i’m glad I had converted my prefs at the beginning of 2020 to an aggregate bond ETF and bought the prefs back at end of March 2020). Back to 2021, my balanced and diversified portfolio is currently sitting at 5.98% YTD. Thanks prefs. And thanks to all the other hard working members of the B&D portfolio. Your boss (namely me) appreciates it all.

#59 Malcolm on 02.08.21 at 5:19 pm

#44 Dolce Vita

3 weeks ago I was optimistic about having enough vaccines by Sept 2021. I’m not optimistic anymore. It seems like Canada is at the back of the line compared to other developed countries.

If by May 2021, we could ramp up 4 million doses a month, That would be 13 months before we can deliver 54m doses to 27m people to reach 70% vaccinated.

#60 Bezengy on 02.08.21 at 5:23 pm

#45 Ben @ SmartBorrowing.ca on 02.08.21 at 4:40 pm
I’m not sure real estate appreciation will continue in the GTA at least.
——————————
Something doesn’t add up. I see homes on the west side going for over a million, and then being totally renovated at a cost of hundreds of thousands, only to be rented out at $3500 per month. Doesn’t seem legit to me.

#61 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 5:23 pm

#39 Dharma Bum

Congrats!

Here in Italia they are still working their way thru the 80 yr olds, lots of them still around, Covid didn’t smite them all apparently.

Find a test that shows your jabs took. Remember, 95% efficacy and what that means, 5% do not net an immune response. Just to be on the safe side. That’s what I’m going to do after I get mine, wherever that will be here in Italia.

Again, good for you. Peace of mind.

#62 Piano_Man87 on 02.08.21 at 5:28 pm

Herd immunity by July?

I hope so, but…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-astrazeneca-vaccine-fails-to-stop-moderate-illness-from-new-variant/

There is no epidemiologist out there who will guarantee when we will return to normal. I may be crazy, but I really doubt some dudes on wall st know more about epidemiology than epidemiologists. Best case scenario is herd immunity by July. Worst case scenario, the thing out-evolves our vaccines and becomes something like the flu. We still don’t know for sure which it will be.

Get ready for the market to tank if it turns out a variant cannot be stopped with a vaccine we presently have developed.

#63 Flop... on 02.08.21 at 5:30 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

Well, it’s mainly white with a bit of smog mixed in, but close enough.

Probably gonna have to walk over to the cemetery and clean the fresh snow of old Ebenezer’s gravestone, now that I’m the newly self appointed guardian of that site.

I filmed in brilliant sunshine, perhaps snow falling would have made it more dramatic.

What else?

I read Garth’s post today and immediately went online to open up a new non-registered account with a small opening amount just to line it.

I’ve got some starch ready to go.

Waiting for the mashed potato to hit the curtains…

M46BC

#64 Bezengy on 02.08.21 at 5:34 pm

#8 Calgary on 02.08.21 at 3:07 pm – Nickel
#25 Unicorn Farts? on 02.08.21 at 4:00 pm – Bitcoin

———–

When Elon get involved, who knows what will happen.

On his recent trip to Timmins, Elon was quoted saying “$hit it’s cold up here” Apparently the markets took it as solid buy signal.

#65 Toronto_CA on 02.08.21 at 5:34 pm

I have to admit a few weeks back I plunked a few of my lockdown savings (cause we can’t spend any money right now) into BTC. Not a lot, because it is gambling, not investing.
It’s kind of fun to see it up 17% in 1 day, I have to admit.
But I don’t really think it will replace currency, and I’m ready to see it go to zero. Hopefully I’ll have sold out by then.
For me, dollar cost averaging with it and not putting in tons of your net worth – BTC could be a fun gamble – lots of upside potential.

I have to agree with Garth though, at some point the world governments will regulate and take over if it becomes much more serious a threat to their ability to tax or monitor transactions?

Maybe before that happens we will see $400k a coin.

#66 JR on 02.08.21 at 5:34 pm

Nothing is nothing. The key is no central banks, no governments, no power to tax. There is only one eventual outcome here. – Garth

This is a feature, not a bug.
With all due respect you’re missing the big picture Garth.

Nope. I just don’t buy it. – Garth

#67 One of these days Alice ... on 02.08.21 at 5:36 pm

To the MOON.

#68 Faron on 02.08.21 at 5:40 pm

#52 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 5:03 pm

#40 Faron on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

To recap (because everyone cares) a poster recalled fishing in 30′ swell that made all aboard motion sick. Sail Away called BS implying that no rec fishing boat would be out in 30′ anything.

Anyhow, that’s a good answer. And thanks for the clarification on theoretical peak open ocean swell amplitude for a single wave train — explains why surf forecasts never exceed 25′ 25s). But, as a babe in the woods, let me ask: how deep of waters would a typical rec fishing boat occupy? Might that swell be undergoing a shallow water transformation causing its amplitude to grow at the expense of wavelength that may be combined with refraction or constructive interference from a secondary swell? And might that fishing boat be on a tilt-a-whirl of puke while remaining safe from overturning or any other breaking wave phenomena such that the passengers called what they experienced “swell” — as in non breaking waves — while experiencing SWH approaching 10m? Especially in or adjacent to the southern ocean?

#69 The Woosh on 02.08.21 at 5:50 pm

#50 JR on 02.08.21 at 4:53 pm
What’s backing BTC? Oh, look. Nothing. – Garth

Bitcoin is backed by a public blockchain ledger that contains proof of all the transactions on the network. Bitcoin is limited in its supply, making it rare, just like precious metals like gold. It is a commonly conceived idea that Bitcoin has no value just because it is not backed by anything physical.

Nothing is nothing. The key is no central banks, no governments, no power to tax. There is only one eventual outcome here. – Garth

—————————————————

Not that I’m holding any but it’s looking like the eventual short term outcome is boondles of profits for those currently holding it. On the other end, I saw Elon selling snake oil out of the back of his Cybertruck! All he’s missing is a top hat and a mustache!!! Lol

#70 R on 02.08.21 at 6:00 pm

Tesla bought $1.5 Bln in BitCoin to-day. Elon is not a silly person. The next big trend is corporations diversifying some of their holdings away from fiat currencys.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 6:02 pm

Saw a Bitcoin ATM today.
There was notice on it:
Do use for deposits to CRA.
Then I noticed it was unplugged.
Are these things for real, or just an early April 1 prank?

#72 Penny Henny on 02.08.21 at 6:02 pm

#46 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 5:00 pm
#43 Penny Henny

“Home Price Index-up 27.2%”

My boring “set it and forget it” ETFs, in less than a year are up +25.1 to 27.6%, 3 of them (meagre as my investment is). VAX single stock up 158%, less than 6 months, etc. (again modest $ here, not like this Blogs Richie Rich readers).

BEST of all: No mortgage or borrowings were needed to get those returns. No maintenance either, well, tax returns for the dividends.

////////////////

Where do you live? In an old shoe?

I wouldn’t trust the returns as you calculated.
We’ve all seen your math.

#73 Faron on 02.08.21 at 6:06 pm

Sorry for the repost Garth:

#180 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 3:01 pm

#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm

I also saw no plastic when slowly sailing through the ‘GREAT PACIFIC GARBAGE PATCH’ for a week, so I researched the estimated total volume of plastic in the patch.

Just a reminder to folks that the “garbage patch” is not described by anyone credible as a heap of beer cans and water bottles bobbing around in a jumble of like trash in the middle of the ocean gyres. From Wikipedia:

Despite the common public perception of the patch existing as giant islands of floating garbage, its low density (4 particles per cubic meter) prevents detection by satellite imagery, or even by casual boaters or divers in the area.

It is/was a mistake of environmentalist media to convey it as a heap of trash because doing so then gives folks like Sail Away some plausible deniability when they sail through “it” and don’t see water bottles floating around everywhere with diapers and shampoo bottles and drinking straws and everything else that would be obvious.

Sail Away is also assuming you don’t know just how hard it is to spot anything bobbing around the ocean unless the sea state is utterly calm which, if you are sailing, is hopefully rare. So, sailing through it and not seeing it is hardly remarkable and meaningless as for its impact.

Finally, the overall tonnage is a steady-state number meaning that the flux in and the flux out are in balance while the total tonnage of plastic that has ever visited the gyres will be much larger. Albatross stomachs/gullets are but one of the sinks for the garbage and it’s the sink rather than the presence that may be more important in terms of impact.

Or, you can just not care. Just as you can just not care about any number of things on this planet that may not seem important to you. Not caring is certainly easier. Ask Milania

#74 Faron on 02.08.21 at 6:12 pm

#53 Brian Ripley on 02.08.21 at 5:06 pm

“Expect froth” Garth

Yeah… it’s already here; my Toronto Housing Charts are up with January data:
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

Brian, what do the prices look like on a log scale? If concave up, that means the price growth is accelerating and log scale could tell us that.

Thanks for the charts!

#75 kc on 02.08.21 at 6:12 pm

34 Malcolm on 02.08.21 at 4:18 pm

Canada’s 2020 population is around 38 million. In order to reach 70% vaccine rate we need 27 million vaccinated or infected Canadians. With 2 dose vaccines, that’s 54 million doses. The way the gov’t has handled this so far, I don’t see Canada getting 54 million doses in 2021. This will end I just don’t think it will end in 2021.

XXXXXXX

What is an infected Canadian? tested at 38 cycles and positive, or tested at 20 cycles and positive? They people in power have never stated what a case is tested at…. keep swallowing the BS.

#76 TurnerNation on 02.08.21 at 6:18 pm

Welcome to your new UN Smarty City – All city new spending will be on the “Poverty Industry” (google this term)

Toronto:
https://outline.com/ppmAhV
Large-scale reopening of Toronto won’t be anytime soon, [Mayor] says. FEBRUARY 06, 2021

Calgary:
https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/02/watch-man-opening-smoking-meth-on-calgarys-c-train/
Calgary’s downtown is already a virtual ghost town. Ground-level retail and hospitality businesses are gone for the most part, and the office buildings are nearly empty

After one of my more harrowing rides in a train that was populated almost exclusively by addicts in various conditions of consciousness, I put out a tweet on the matter. The responses from others who had been having similar incidents on city transit came quickly. I was far from alone in what I had observed.
This problem is getting visibly worse every week and the city can’t afford to ignore it any longer.
…….

What’s this. From 2015. If our leaders are signed on why aren’t they telling us the plans? Or we are already watching it unfolding…So this is why travel is being banned. #stayhome they hold us on Day 1.
The UN even call it a New Agenda. How quaint.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2015/09/509732-un-adopts-new-global-goals-charting-sustainable-development-people-and-planet
25 September 2015
The 193-Member United Nations General Assembly today formally adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, along with a set of bold new Global Goals, which Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon hailed as a universal, integrated and transformative vision for a better world.

“The new agenda is a promise by leaders to all people everywhere. It is an agenda for people, to end poverty in all its forms – an agenda for the planet, our common home,” declared Mr. Ban as he opened the UN Sustainable Development Summit which kicked off today and wraps up Sunday.
The UN chief’s address came ahead of the Assembly’s formal adoption of the new framework, Transforming Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which is composed of 17 goals and 169 targets to wipe out poverty, fight inequality and tackle climate change over the next 15 years”

….

Bonus: Any medical people can comment?

https://muchadoaboutcorona.ca/nurse-whistleblower/
On January 6, 2021, I was contacted by a nurse who works in a hospital on the outskirts of Toronto, Ontario. Toronto is Canada’s most populous city, and the fourth largest city in North America.

The Ontario government’s website claims that “escalating [COVID-19] case counts have led to increasing hospitalization rates and capacity challenges in many large urban hospitals” which “are reaching critical limits.” As a result, the province has continued to enforce lockdowns, mandatory masking and social distancing.

Yet this whistleblowing nurse, as you can read below, works in a “large urban hospital” and reports a very different story. She has provided sufficient evidence, and links to public records, to satisfy me that she is indeed a nurse working for over a decade in multiple Canadian hospitals. .

#77 Long-Time Lurker on 02.08.21 at 6:18 pm

Zoolander 3. Script update.

Our trio of heroes in the wheat field continue talking.

Tin Man “Shawn Jerry”: “Prime Minister Zoolander, you saw how those munchkins reacted to your suit. You can’t go walking around like that here.”

PM Zoolander: “You’re right! What am I going to do?”

Tin Man “Shawn Jerry” walks up to the scarecrow and takes off it’s hat.

Tin Man: “Here, put these clothes on. You can pretend to be a scarecrow.”

PM Zoolander puts the scarecrow’s clothes over his and… a perfect fit!

Cowardly Lion “Rich O’Donnell”: “Now say something stupid. Everyone knows that scarecrows don’t have brains.”

PM Zoolander: “Canadians believe me to be a competent and ethical leader.”

Tin Man: “No! It has to be believable! Try again!”

PM Zoolander: “Oh, why am I such an airhead?”

Cowardly Lion: “That’s better, but it could be stupidier.”

PM Zoolander: “The budget will balance itself.”

Tin Man: “You’re getting there. Try one more.”

PM Zoolander: “Sunny ways.”

Tin Man & Cowardly Lion: “Perfect! Let’s go!”

The trio of “heroes” continue down the Golden Bribe Road.

#78 Long-Time Lurker on 02.08.21 at 6:20 pm

>I picked a side in U.S. politics:

Superman – Truth, Justice and the American Way
469 views•May 29, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=972fJs4b0Ho

#79 better hedge on 02.08.21 at 6:23 pm

Yes the stimulus has runeth up everything due to Covid, but it’s going to create a lot of problems too. Rates going up and inflation. First the removal of so much stimulus will create a massive taper tantrum in the stock market just like 2013. After that if Gov’s and central bank wake up and focus on debt how will we/they pay for it ? So sure things look like back to frothy for now but it won’t last.

Tesla buying 1.5B of Bitcoin shows what the richest man in the world thinks of central bankers non-stop money printing and the devaluation of currencies…..Rumour has it Apple is next to sign up.

#80 Bartman on 02.08.21 at 6:34 pm

BTC- 58,000.00 How can this price be so high? Are all these investors wrong? Somebody please shed some light on this.

Remember GME? – Garth

#81 Wait There on 02.08.21 at 6:53 pm

Elon Musk backing Bitcoin is pretty clever.

He knows that many holding bitcoin are people who would want an electric car. With the valuation bitcoin is at today, it means that the demoographic that went in early have some value in their hands. Cashing out then paying cash to purchase a vehicle is a deterrent over handing over a bitcoin or two to Tesla. This is a sales drive directly to the market that is likely holding bitcoin. It’s like the reddit crowd and investment. Let’s show the world that we can purchase real things with bitcoin. Everyone purchase a TESLA with bitcoin and show the man like Garth it is possible! That will teach them to scoff at bitcoin. So watch how the crowds pile into the TESLA showrooms or purchase them online.

Bingo. – Garth

#82 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 7:08 pm

The Great Garbage Patch:

I’m glad this is now an ocean blog because that’s very interesting.

First, by no means do I oppose plastic pollution control in the oceans.

The next point, though, is that the oceans are massively huge. It’s almost unfathomable until you are actually 1,000 miles or more from land in every direction. Actually, still unfathomable then since you can only see 20 miles or so. During my time in the N. Pacific high, the winds dropped right down, the waves flattened out, and for around a week, there was very little wind. Nearly flat calm, actually. With no working engine, I’d lay on the foredeck and drop dimes and quarters into the water and watch them wink down through crystal-clear blue water for a long, long time.

It’s fairly easy to spot floatables. My ‘crows nest’ was standing on the propane box at the stern, holding onto the backstay. Between San Francisco and Hawaii in the trades, there was quite a bit of floating debris. Mostly plastic fishing floats. In the gyre, though… nothing. Nothing at all. Over 400 miles. That’s a long way. Imagine driving across Saskatchewan and seeing not a single beer can in the ditch.

It is logistically difficult, expensive and time-consuming to get to the gyre. It’s a long frickin’ way from land! Who is ever going to check the ‘garbage patch’ numbers? And the numbers are low: the research done there estimates as mentioned previously that the entire gyre contains 80,000 tons of plastic. At 30 lbs/cubic foot, this equates to a cube 55m on a side- total. In the entire garbage patch. That’s basically like all of Canada having one block of plastic 55m per side, or the size of a single downtown medium rise office building.

I just can’t get too excited about such a miniscule concentration.

https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/how-big-great-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html

#83 Drinking on 02.08.21 at 7:08 pm

#9 TurnerNation

Stopped in the liquor store the other day (liquor Depot), was talking to the dude behind the counter. He said by March all Liquor Depots will have a scanner at the entrance and will require one to scan there I.D. into it in order to purchase a product. I looked at him and asked him why (WTF); he said that it is for security and then rolled his eyes!! Yes, ladies and gentlemen and all that describe themselves as (not sure on my part, apologies) this is what and where we are heading to! Lost my business!

#84 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:09 pm

“Expect froth. In 2021, everything goes up. Golden retriever pups are already $3,000.”

Pure breeds are a designer item anyway. Rescue dogs are still cheap, although I understand they are not as readily available as they were. One good thing to come out of covid I suppose. Although once you have the dog all the other expenses remain the same for vet bills, food, chew toys, etc., so budget accordingly.

———————————-

On the economic side I expect an inflationary shock. How can there not be? Stimulus checks a flowing, businesses shut down, 4 month wait times for a new RV, even motorcycles are getting hard to find and there is no negotiating the price. I expect the headline number to go to 4% and stay there for a few years. Then CB’s will start raising rates but not to the point where they actually cause deflation. The new pricing environment will be permanent.

So a five year mortgage at 1.5% probably does reflect the right rate for the first half of the mortgage, but as inflation takes hold probably in 2022 rates will rise and the renewal in 2026 could be as high as 3 or 4%. Doesn’t sound like much but if you could barely afford the payments now it will be quite a shock. The monthly will almost double. Many people will be forced back to variable in order to qualify.

———————————

Many interesting things are already coming out of the Biden administration in these early weeks that I think are going to induce a lot of “buyer’s remorse” among voters. Trump was bad, but this guy is a disaster. His latest attack on American workers is that he removed the requirement that H-1B workers be paid the same as American workers for the same job, which is law but which Trump had issued a guidance reinforcing.

Why is this important? The law was meant to prevent employers from using H-1B visas to undercut wages for American workers. Silicon valley is going to love it. Oh wait, who donated money primarily to the Biden campaign? This is how US politics works. It is the same thing as Biden cancelling Keystone his first day in office, and coincidentally having been given $41 million (or there abouts) in political contributions by Buffet, who happens to own the competing railways.

Do not assume democrats are all about “equity”. They are not. It is “pay to play”. The socialism thing is a front for corporatism.

———————————-

It can even be seen in Biden’s “national $15 minimum wage”. Is there any justifiable reason that the minimum wage should be the same in Arkansas as it is in New York? It is much cheaper to live in Arkansas. And Arkansas need more jobs more than they need higher wages. That’s why the wages are so low. But the problem is that low cost states are attracting business, manufacturing, even Tesla is headed for Texas. What is California to do to stop the outflow? Well, raise the minimum wage in Texas and Florida (and Arkansas) is a good start. They voted for the wrong guy anyway, so they deserve it.

California and New York aren’t going to be much phased by the coming $15 dollar minimum wage. Practically everybody gets that already except for the illegal immigrants, who will work for less because they get paid cash and don’t pay taxes.

This is a good example of the sinister side of politics. $15 dollars an hour sounds really good to a voter in Arkansas, but he/she does not realize that means the jobs stay in California and he/she gets nothing. $15 dollars an hour is just an attempt to crush the states that are already poor, in favor of the rich states. That is Biden in action, and prepare for more of it.

#85 Faron on 02.08.21 at 7:15 pm

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:22 pm

@176 Penny Henny
“I am curious about one thing though Faron, other than your partner do you have any friends?”

Ah damn. You got me. I was hoping Turner Nation would be my friend, but no dice. My partner is actually a stuffed pineapple. I live in a burned-out bus in the coastal woods of Haida Gwaii living off of wash-up and surfing on scraps of marine plywood that come ashore from time to time. My loin cloth is made of the Pacific Garbage patch and ravens groom my hair and nibble the few parasites that exist up here. Occasionally I catch a sexual partner but eventually the differing viewpoints we share drive us apart. But at least I still have pineapple. You are welcome to join Penny.

Penny?

Helloo?

Are you still there?

#86 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:17 pm

#2 Jimmy Zhao on 02.08.21 at 2:58 pm

“Why bother impeaching Trump. He’s gone, let him ride off into the sunset already.”

Here is an interesting article:

https://time.com/magazine/us/?fbclid=IwAR02kTXwD7PnzUdGPlzf8KOF_LUCextXSsYkK9k-N-iLyMs3T3z6LX6hBVEpage%2F2page%2F6page%2F7page%2F3page%2F3page%2F2page%2F2page%2F2page%2F3page%2F5page%2F4page/485

If you read it with your “propaganda reverse translator” turned on, you will see that the criminals are trying to normalize their behavior. And they are doing it out in the open!

#87 Job#1 on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

#75 kc

I have been unable to find a single jurisdiction, anywhere in North America, where Cycle threshold is <35.
Nobody cares about WHO's recent (Jan. 20, 2021) guidance re RT-PCR.
An inexcusable fraud perpetrated on an unsuspecting public.

#88 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

Yikes! Get yer mitts on!

https://globalnews.ca/news/7625973/cold-alberta-snap-feb-2021/

Extreme cold in Alberta, -40 to -55 Celsius!

(In Fahrenheit, that’s almost as cold as the heart of a
typical Toronturd!)

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

#81 Wait There on 02.08.21 at 6:53 pm
Elon Musk backing Bitcoin is pretty clever.

He knows that many holding bitcoin are people who would want an electric car. With the valuation bitcoin is at today, it means that the demoographic that went in early have some value in their hands. Cashing out then paying cash to purchase a vehicle is a deterrent over handing over a bitcoin or two to Tesla. This is a sales drive directly to the market that is likely holding bitcoin. It’s like the reddit crowd and investment. Let’s show the world that we can purchase real things with bitcoin. Everyone purchase a TESLA with bitcoin and show the man like Garth it is possible! That will teach them to scoff at bitcoin. So watch how the crowds pile into the TESLA showrooms or purchase them online.

Bingo. – Garth
—–
haha,
But unlike Bingo, you can lose your shorts.
Shorts, get it.
Melon is a car sales man.
What does he know about crypto currencies?

#90 Mattl on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

Well, don’t believe it. Financial markets are betting that things move a lot faster and further. The case for optimism is growing, despite Covid variants, bumbling politicians, minus 47 in Alberta, Robin Hoodies and the prospect this might all mean Drake and Adele start performing again.

—————————————————————-

6 months ago markets were seeing positive signs today. 6 months prior to that they were seeing positive improvements for Fall 2020. And yet here we are, and are supposed to believe the markets have an amazing recovery in 6 months priced in.

Let’s be real. Markets are predicting that Federal governments will continue to inject trillions of dollars into the economy. This rally is completely disconnected from fundamentals, the markets know that the fed won’t let them fail. There will be no significant, organic recovery, in 2021. The “recovery” will depend on how much the government is willing to keep spending.

#91 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:26 pm

#4 $3000 puppies? on 02.08.21 at 3:00 pm
Well, that’s not going to help the puppy trade at $3000 a piece, is it now?

I hope these responsible puppy sellers give $1000 of that $3000 to support organizations that will in the near future deal with spike in abandoned animals once the pandemic “ends” and we can go out to a club, concert, bar, game and are hung over next day. Thus we’ll be too tired to deal with the constant need of a dog to poop and dog owner’s responsibility to scoop.

———————————

I don’t think it will be as bad as that. Once you have a dog it becomes part of the family, more so probably than your goth daughter with the pink hair. I suppose some dogs will go back to the shelter because a really selfish person just wants them gone, but most of the dogs that end up there it is because the owner could no longer take care of them. Sort of like having kids in your 50’s. You can’t keep up.

#92 Flop... on 02.08.21 at 7:27 pm

Arkansas?

Could you use that in a sentence for me?

Yes, I can!

When my table saw breaks down at work, I say, I am so bloody sick of this Arkansas…

M46BC

#93 Adrian burridge on 02.08.21 at 7:33 pm

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of the billionaire class involved no?

Druckenmeiller, Winklevoss and Musk?

If you lose faith in them, presumably you will lose faith in bitcoin?

#94 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:33 pm

“What’s backing BTC? Oh, look. Nothing. – Garth”

Not true Garth, huge amounts of electricity and the associated CO2 emissions back BTC. It is more expensive to “mine” than gold. Electricity isn’t free, my friend.

That said I have never owned BTC and never will. I’m with you on that. I’d rather own gold because you still have it when the power goes out.

#95 Shirl Clarts on 02.08.21 at 7:34 pm

Garth, I’m curious if you set up your client accounts with DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan). Seems like a good idea to reinvest those Dividends automatically, rather than having the cash pile up not earning anything. Does it help keep things balanced? When would you not use a DRIP?

Nope. I use a portfolio manager with decades of experience to deploy that pesky cash. – Garth

#96 IHCTD9 on 02.08.21 at 7:40 pm

#40 Faron on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm.

…but I’m certainly far from mad/angry/whatever.

—- – –

Oh you’re definitely a little crusty today…

Here’s something guaranteed to cheer you up a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZQQGX24Teg

I know you like a little intellectual stimulus as well, so in this vid there is a (yet to be) famous bassist. Don’t read the comments, or consult Google, see if you can name him.

#97 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 02.08.21 at 7:46 pm

Organizing fun in a pandemic presents challenges so I have decided to go with the flow: stay home; don’t breathe around others; don’t go out to retail or food outlets or bars; stay home. My big fun is taking my monthly stipend and make it lasts TWO months. Yes, I really am a wild and crazy person. Wow making my budget stretch for an additional month. Making fun happen requires effort.

#98 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 7:49 pm

#68 Faron on 02.08.21 at 5:40 pm
#52 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 5:03 pm
#40 Faron on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

To recap (because everyone cares) a poster recalled fishing in 30′ swell that made all aboard motion sick. Sail Away called BS implying that no rec fishing boat would be out in 30′ anything.

Anyhow, that’s a good answer. And thanks for the clarification on theoretical peak open ocean swell amplitude for a single wave train — explains why surf forecasts never exceed 25′ 25s). But, as a babe in the woods, let me ask: how deep of waters would a typical rec fishing boat occupy? Might that swell be undergoing a shallow water transformation causing its amplitude to grow at the expense of wavelength that may be combined with refraction or constructive interference from a secondary swell? And might that fishing boat be on a tilt-a-whirl of puke while remaining safe from overturning or any other breaking wave phenomena such that the passengers called what they experienced “swell” — as in non breaking waves — while experiencing SWH approaching 10m? Especially in or adjacent to the southern ocean?

————

Fishman should weigh in.

Yes, of course the waves stack up at shore and refract from the islands. And wind against current or waves adds to it. But you would see this all the time sailing around Victoria- especially Cadboro Bay, Race Rocks, Trial Island.

Recreational fishing boats won’t go out in anything near 15′ open ocean swells riding up the bar. Total chaos. More people get seasick in a steady and repeatable swell than in confused seas, though.

Southern Ocean. That’s sort of funny.

#99 Ustabe on 02.08.21 at 7:57 pm

#68 Faron on 02.08.21 at 5:40 pm

…To recap (because everyone cares) a poster recalled fishing in 30′ swell that made all aboard motion sick. Sail Away called BS implying that no rec fishing boat would be out in 30′ anything.

Faron, off the mouth of Wiffin Spit (Sooke, BC) lies Secretary Island. You fish a dog bone pattern from Secretary over to the bluff and back again. There is a huge ocean floor uplift there. Fish the downside of it and its halibut and smaller chinooks. Fish the upside and its coho and large chinook. (chinooks/spring…same same.)

Because you often are required to get your gear below the depth that coho enjoy and down deeper for the chinooks we kept very close eye on our line length. My favourite reel actually had a counter built in.

We often enjoyed fishing in (compliments of that up rise)swell. Without wind its a remarkable time. With wind it can be a bit spooky with control struggles and bilge pump action, green water over the boat, etc. I recall on more that one occasion looking aft and up, way up, and seeing my flasher spinning behind me with my counter reading many tens of feet of line out. 60-70 feet was not uncommon and when in swell to have half that amount above your boat when you were in the trough and your terminal gear was at the top means that we were certainly in 30+/- foot swells.

now folks can call me a liar but…I actually have video.

If Sail or any one wants to dispute my version of events they are welcome to put their money where their mouth is. Garth will hold the bet and when I win he can chose the charity to give it to. Put up 5 grand, see a 16 foot salmon fishing boat in 30 foot swells. If I lose I’ll double the donation for Garth’s charity of choice.

And Faron, you both are descending into toddler level only with some big words. Not a good look. Let him be, his arrogance and lack of empathy shines through without any illumination from you.

#100 DON on 02.08.21 at 7:58 pm

@JAG

The artic winds blew onto the west coast accompanied by rain and sun. Bone chilling damp weather. Wet feet…wind and water slapping at my face…brainfreeze. Bring on the cold and sun. We’ve had enough rain in the last 6 weeks.

-27 …yikes!

#101 Slim on 02.08.21 at 7:58 pm

To help make sure the economy keeps growing, there will be requirements for vaccine passports. Too much is at stake.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210205-denmark-sweden-to-issue-digital-vaccine-passports

#102 Faron on 02.08.21 at 8:02 pm

#82 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 7:08 pm

The Great Garbage Patch:

I’m glad this is now an ocean blog because that’s very interesting.

Yes, I’m sure all those living in the region defined by Hope, Whitehorse, Churchill, Fredericton are enthralled here.

I’ll keep this relatively simple. I assume you made this enviable trip just once? If that’s correct, do you think you effectively sampled the vast ocean you correctly describe? Or even the smaller subsection of ocean where the patch “is”? Could ekman drift, vertical mixing, transient currents, seasonal variation or passage of weather possibly have distorted the location of the garbage patch from where you dropped your dimes? If you were becalmed you were also a passive particle essentially sampling the same unit of ocean during the whole time you were becalmed. The point is that your one trip through sampling with eyeballs only is very far from an authoritative description of the debris patches.

As you have written to me, your words here have some meaning and import that is given further weight by the authority with which you write. Thus saying, effectively, “the garbage patch is a hoax” and leaving it there for this crowd (who seems more than willing to reject anything remotely progressive such as environmental protection) is misleading even if the reality of your thinking is the somewhat similar “the garbage patch isn’t as thick or dense as you may imagine, moves around and is sometimes outweighed by marine garbage elsewhere, still I think plastic in the oceans is a problem.” Can you see that?

Most plastic is UV unstable and breaks into tiny fragments a few mm in size. That, by the time plastic makes it into the gyres it’s broken into small particles is no surprise. In the open ocean where nutrient sources are few, any foreign object is of interest to local fauna and will be investigated and likely also taste-tested. That the larger fragments routinely get gobbled by Albatross is, then, no surprise. That is why plastics are often found to have been consumed in entire populations of the few animals that live or visit there. Does it matter? Maybe not. Those parts of the oceans, by nature of their calmness, are poor in the nutrients needed for ecological function. But, I think it does matter. It shows that what we do willy nilly has far reaching effects. Plastics have been around on the planet for less than a century yet we’ve managed to impact the most remote oceanic reaches and animal populations with them.

#103 YVR 60% Crash on 02.08.21 at 8:09 pm

#39 Dharma Bum on 02.08.21 at 4:29 pm

————————————————

I am a B.C. healthcare professional and a part of the Phase 1 group. I got my second dose last week (pfizer vaccine) , 37 days a part from the first dose. I have not experienced any side effects.
As of today, only 70% of B.C. heathcare personnel (Phase 1 group) received the first dose and 40% received the second dose.

We typically report our influenza shots, but this year, my Team Lead informed me that there is no need to report for the COVID shot and that it is optional. Do not believe the fake news about the COVID vaccine passports, as the employers do not want anything to do with the class action lawsuit from the staff who have experienced side effects from the vaccine.
I have been told by my Team Lead that we must do the second round of COVID vaccines by the end of the year because the vaccine only offers immunity for up to eight months. Hopefully, the Phase 2 group will be vaccinated by September 2021, and the Phase 3 and Phase 4 groups will be vaccinated by September next year.

#104 DON on 02.08.21 at 8:12 pm

Sail Away

Recreational fishing boats won’t go out in anything near 15′ open ocean swells riding up the bar. Total chaos. More people get seasick in a steady and repeatable swell than in confused seas, though.

*****************

Can confirm…sucks fishing in a little boat when the waves roll in. Not many boats venture that far off shore. And if they do its a charter to the hali sandbar and back. Was out in the broken group fishing with friends in a boat with one motor…great when its calm in August…not not when an August storm rolls in…unexpectantly. I can’t believe we made it home…we were getting ready to swim. Never did that again…should have waited…but young and invincible.The waves in Victoria are little in comparison. The commercial guys are brave folk.

#105 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 8:13 pm

#92 Flop… on 02.08.21 at 7:27 pm
Arkansas?

Could you use that in a sentence for me?

——————————

I’m not totally sure, but I thought Arkansas was a US state. A quick DuckDuckGo seems to confirm that but of course you aren’t to believe anything that isn’t on Google. Anyway back to my point a $15 minimum wage will likely ruin them.

#106 Brian Ripley on 02.08.21 at 8:14 pm

“…price growth is accelerating..” #74 Faron on 02.08.21 at 6:12 pm

On my momentum chart (Y/Y price change) for Vancouver Calgary Toronto SF Detached and the TSX Real Estate Index:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html

…momentum energy is frisky in Vancouver and heading for irrational exuberance in Toronto.

On the other hand, cash buyers in the TSX RE index are carving out a fearful plot.

#107 DON on 02.08.21 at 8:17 pm

#81 Wait There on 02.08.21 at 6:53 pm
Elon Musk backing Bitcoin is pretty clever.

He knows that many holding bitcoin are people who would want an electric car. With the valuation bitcoin is at today, it means that the demoographic that went in early have some value in their hands. Cashing out then paying cash to purchase a vehicle is a deterrent over handing over a bitcoin or two to Tesla. This is a sales drive directly to the market that is likely holding bitcoin. It’s like the reddit crowd and investment. Let’s show the world that we can purchase real things with bitcoin. Everyone purchase a TESLA with bitcoin and show the man like Garth it is possible! That will teach them to scoff at bitcoin. So watch how the crowds pile into the TESLA showrooms or purchase them online.

Bingo. – Garth

************

I had the same thought this morning…my millenial bro worships Elon as the ‘game changer’.

#108 NoName on 02.08.21 at 8:29 pm

#92 Flop… on 02.08.21 at 7:27 pm
Arkansas?

Could you use that in a sentence for me?

Yes, I can!

When my table saw breaks down at work, I say, I am so bloody sick of this Arkansas…

M46BC

Press Play.
https://youtu.be/FPZi51GL3cs

And bonus video, press play also
https://youtu.be/TCcBHYn3pHM

#109 Joe Schmoe on 02.08.21 at 8:34 pm

#81

You nailed it.

Now you can buy porn, drugs, guns AND Teslas with BTC.

#110 shanktown on 02.08.21 at 8:37 pm

How is Questrade going to make millennials millionaires?

I see commercial after commercial on TV about how QT will make the millennial very rich because of their “low fees”. How many trades are they making daily that the low fees is going to make them a millionaire? I don’t fully understand. I pay $10/trade at TD and don’t trade often. Even if trades were free I may save a few hundred a year. That ain’t going to make me rich….

#111 The West on 02.08.21 at 8:43 pm

I cannot get a sense of tone in today’s edition.

If you are proclaiming inflationary pressure on our economy is going to realize a burgeoning new age of prosperity and hope, I am amused.

If the undertone of this blog was a tongue and cheek jest towards the future, I am amused.

Life really is in the eyes of the beholder.

#112 joblo on 02.08.21 at 8:44 pm

“Record levels in New York. A homerun for the Nasdaq. And, wow, an all-time high on Bay Street, too.”

Hmm…maybe time to write some puts?

#113 Sara on 02.08.21 at 8:47 pm

#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:07 pm
I was busy in the shop today.
Did I miss anything important?
=========================

Nothing you are capable of understanding.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 8:48 pm

#61 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 5:23 pm
#39 Dharma Bum

Congrats!

Here in Italia they are still working their way thru the 80 yr olds, lots of them still around, Covid didn’t smite them all apparently.
—————
Congrats on your 80th birthday.
Wow, you seem much younger.
Following the Buddhism lifestyle obviously did wonders for you.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 8:48 pm

@#104 Don
“Was out in the broken group fishing with friends in a boat with one motor…great when its calm in August…not not when an August storm rolls in…unexpectantly.”

=++++

True enough.
Was on the MV Lady Rose on a return run from Bamfield to Port Alberni after hiking the West Coast Trail many years ago.
We were diverted to one of the outer Broken Islands to pick up some “weekend warrior” fisherman that had been marooned for several days on the outer most island. A Park patrol spotted them on the beach and picked them up.
I talked to one of the guys as we putted our way back to Pt Alberni.
Seems they had set up camp on the Island and decided to go out fishing for dinner in their 24ft cruiser.
Beautiful sunny afternoon, no wind….
Were several miles out and some huge swells started coming in.
They got bigger and bigger.
They said a few fishing boats heading in completely disappeared (antennas, flags, whatever) when they went into a trough.
They figure 15- 20 foot swells with a few bigger ones in between.
After a few hours or so they tried to get back on the beach and swamped the boat, drowned the engine. Stuck.
The guy kept saying, “It was a beautiful day, no wind….?”
I talked to a crew member on the Lady Rose and he said a storm in Hawaii might have created the swells…. who knows.

Great hike.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 8:54 pm

Mr Prime Minister I dont pay enough taxes.

Please raise them higher….

https://www.citynews1130.com/video/2021/02/08/calls-for-canadian-basic-income-growing/

#117 Sara on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm

#99 Ustabe on 02.08.21 at 7:57 pm
#68 Faron on 02.08.21 at 5:40 pm”Let him be, his [SA’s] arrogance and lack of empathy shines through without any illumination from you.”

=================
Indeed. Kind of like how CEF’s misogynistic attitude does.

#118 SoggyShorts on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm

#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm
#160 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 1:12 pm
#151 Faron on 02.08.21 at 12:23 pm
The statistics bear out that women do not get equal pay for equal work in North America especially the US, but also here
***********************

Not any statistics I have seen. At least no more than 6-7% which is explained by lack of negotiating for a higher salary.

Do you have a good link?

All I ever find are misunderstandings of statistics like when a “study” shows that
“Women who work full time make 70% of what men make”
and there is no actual comparison of equal work.

The articles promoting the pay gap myth always forget factors like career choice, hours worked, or experience.
In a society as litigious as America’s, there’s simply no way that any company could get away with paying 30% less, let alone ALL companies on average.

Think about averages for a moment- 100% of people who make minimum wage make the same wage, so for 100% of those women the 30% less “statistic” is wrong,
The same goes for millions of government positions where salaries are public.

So, we know as an indisputable fact that a whole lot of women get equal pay for equal work, so how underpaid are some women in order to bring the average to 30% less? Are you really saying that in some jobs men are paid 100% more than women for the exact same work? And no one spilled the beans? Come on.

Think about all of the female accountants in North America- none of them are crying foul when they cut checks that are always double for the men in that company?

This would be in the news every single day if true, and lawsuits (which are a matter of public record) would be in the thousands, wouldn’t they?

#119 Faron on 02.08.21 at 9:02 pm

#99 Ustabe on 02.08.21 at 7:57 pm

#68 Faron on 02.08.21 at 5:40 pm

That’s some serious size especially for deep in the Strait. I would love to see that video.

I’ve surfed at Whiffen Spit proper as well as some areas very near there that are more secret. More often when I lived a short walk from the spit some years ago. But, never that size. I have watched one spot within a kilometre of Secretary Island where surfers rode 15′ faces easily just a couple months ago. Long period, but not a particularly large swell. On the biggest day in ’16 that I saw, a lucky rider could have caught a wave off the point west of the Sooke Harbour House and rode it almost to the end of Whiffen Spit.

Agreed. I’m embarrassed by my over extensive participation in and inciting of what has become a pissing match. I think we all agree that plastic in the ocean isn’t a great outcome of human activity. We can all decide if and how much to care and act on the problem in light of everything else in our lives.

#120 kc on 02.08.21 at 9:07 pm

87 Job#1 on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

#75 kc

I have been unable to find a single jurisdiction, anywhere in North America, where Cycle threshold is <35.
Nobody cares about WHO's recent (Jan. 20, 2021) guidance re RT-PCR.
An inexcusable fraud perpetrated on an unsuspecting public.

XXXXXXXX

Exactly… ask anyone to explain it to you what it all means and you get the deer in the head lights look…..
Then explain it back to them what a pcr test really is and more lost looks….

I don't even try any more.

(side note, have a friend who is a DR here in BC and he said they do test @ 36)

cheers

#121 Bert on 02.08.21 at 9:07 pm

“Work from home” stocks are posting new highs relative to the S&P500. Not forecasting a return to pre lockdown conditions.

https://twitter.com/adaptiv/status/1358470154426998785?s=21

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 9:12 pm

@#113 Sara
“Nothing you are capable of understanding.”

+++

Is it my lack of empathy for anyone that doesnt “get” Bill Burr???

https://www.fastcompany.com/90402673/what-the-3-most-triggered-moments-of-bill-burrs-netflix-special-reveal-about-bill-burr

#123 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.08.21 at 9:14 pm

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.08.21 at 6:02 pm
Saw a Bitcoin ATM today.
There was notice on it:
Do use for deposits to CRA.
Then I noticed it was unplugged.
Are these things for real, or just an early April 1 prank?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
They’re all over Quebec. They’re very real.
The “Don’t use for CRA deposits” sign is due to a scam going around where scammers convince people to send their taxes to “CRA” through Bitcoin.

#124 DON on 02.08.21 at 9:16 pm

@Crowded

Beautiful sunny afternoon, no wind….
Were several miles out and some huge swells started coming in.
They got bigger and bigger.
They said a few fishing boats heading in completely disappeared (antennas, flags, whatever) when they went into a trough.
They figure 15- 20 foot swells with a few bigger ones in between.
After a few hours or so they tried to get back on the beach and swamped the boat, drowned the engine. Stuck.
The guy kept saying, “It was a beautiful day, no wind….?”
I talked to a crew member on the Lady Rose and he said a storm in Hawaii might

***************

A bunch of small boats went up and down and out of sight in those troughs. I just caught dinner and it started up and came in fast. We were on a 20 foot aluminum boat. We were all silent that night and fished close to the cabin the next day. My friend’s husband is an former commercial fisherman out in Sooke and he has stories to tell…much like Ustabe.

You need to get your hiking butt on the Cape Scott Trail in mid July if you haven’t already done so. No ladders and bascially a flat walk with a heavy pack.

#125 the Jaguar on 02.08.21 at 9:18 pm

@#100 DON on 02.08.21 at 7:58 pm
@JAG
The artic winds blew onto the west coast accompanied by rain and sun. Bone chilling damp weather. Wet feet…wind and water slapping at my face…brainfreeze. Bring on the cold and sun. We’ve had enough rain in the last 6 weeks.
-27 …yikes +++

Years ago I was standing on Queen Street, downtown Hogtown, early evening. It was -18. Felt like -35. My expensive leather boots covered in the horrible salt used on roads in that country. Cold temperatures and close proximity to large bodies of water is a special cruelty. Every day is overcast. Ugh.

The Polar Vortex is a mean bugger, but wearing the right gear and running errands when the sun is high in the sky makes it bearable. It will begin to warm up in a few days. In the meantime, the distractions are endless when a positive attitude is maintained. It’s still a marvelous time to be alive.
Amen.

#126 DON on 02.08.21 at 9:30 pm

@Faron

The West Coast Trail has amazing surfing spots between Carmanah Point and Whyac Point. Could get in fron Nitinat lake (First Nations d
boat ride and then take a left on to the trail (headed back towards Vic). Great beaches horse shoe shaped.

#127 kc on 02.08.21 at 9:34 pm

87 Job#1 on 02.08.21 at 7:20 pm

35

I am guessing you actually meant

#128 Dogman01 on 02.08.21 at 9:55 pm

A prominent realtor in Calgary, advertises that he takes Bitcoin. Being its sole purpose is for drugs, guns, porn, Tesla’s and money laundering, I find his ads pretty despicable. In other words I am willing to help you Launder money into Canadian Real Estate. Slow golf clap.

Speaking of Tesla, it is -30c here, if you leave you Tesla out overnight, how is it possible the battery powered thing would work. Sounds like a solution for California not Canada.
Also the electricity, generated via Natural Gas or worse coal. Add in all the battery mining and chemicals.

The great plastic ocean vortex, electric cars, just too much hyperbole from the environment religion.

#129 Dr V on 02.08.21 at 9:56 pm

110 shanktown – the commercials probably refer to the cost of their ETF portfolios vs old-school mutual funds

https://www.questrade.com/questwealth-portfolios?s_cid=qwplaunch118_cpc_google&gclid=Cj0KCQiA34OBBhCcARIsAG32uvPyGBgBcooFBY_F-BF4gds3MHjgbMN3MdlZt_vWgWGDbukk_Ksnh5YaAtE6EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

By lowering the fees by 1% (ie from 2% to 1%) compounded over 30 years, your investment will grow by more than 30% by using the lower cost solution, all else being equal.

I don’t know what QT offers in advice (robos?), but these portfolios are probably sufficient for a young employee starting out making regular contributions.

After some time though, as the portfolio increases, you will need tax planning, diversification and generally more customization to your particular circumstances.

That is when a good advisor comes into play

#130 Faron on 02.08.21 at 9:56 pm

#122 DON on 02.08.21 at 9:30 pm

@Faron

The West Coast Trail has amazing surfing spots between Carmanah Point and Whyac Point. Could get in fron Nitinat lake (First Nations d
boat ride and then take a left on to the trail (headed back towards Vic). Great beaches horse shoe shaped.

That sounds awesome. Thanks for the tip DON. I haven’t been out there yet.

I did hike a surfboard along the Nootka Trail (NOT recommended). In and out on the Uchuck III to Friendly Cove and walked up to Beano Pt. and Calvin Bay. Spent 10 days surfing and camping. Got lucky with very nice early fall weather but not much swell. Fantastic time regardless. The surf I did get is permanently etched in my memories.

#131 Faron on 02.08.21 at 10:06 pm

#128 Faron on 02.08.21 at 9:56 pm


…the Nootka Trail (NOT recommended)

By this I meant hiking the surfboard. The trail itself is great. Next time I’ll take a float plane in for the drop off. Maybe BillyBob will be my pilot?

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 10:10 pm

@#124 Don
“You need to get your hiking butt on the Cape Scott Trail in mid July if you haven’t already done so. No ladders and bascially a flat walk with a heavy pack.”
++++

I good friend of mine lived in Port Hardy back in the early 80’s
We hiked out to San Josef Bay and enjoyed swimming in the surf. Damn COLD!
Checked out the ruins of the old whaling station.
Went to Winter Harbour when it was only 3 occupied houses and the General Store.
Checked out the Military base and had a beer in the Mess …..on a Sunday !
A big deal in BC before Expo ’86 legalized it.
Then headed up to Cape Scott to hike in and camp but a bear started stalking us only about an hour from the truck . Stood on the boardwalk 50ft in front of us, circled us, bluff charges, stayed around us for about 30 minutes.
Didnt feel like going deeper into the wilderness without a gun ( pepper spray was an exotic idea in the 80’s).

#133 Ed on 02.08.21 at 10:17 pm

So I’ve been in the “garbage patch”…nothing there. I guess that 22 year old vacuumed it all up the other year?

I been around some, about 25,000 nm’s of open ocean. I saw maybe 15′ swell in 40+ knots of wind, also seen a lot of lies in port.

30′ is reserved for the Indian Ocean once in a lifetime…maybe.

#134 Faron on 02.08.21 at 10:27 pm

#118 SoggyShorts on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm
#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm
#160 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 1:12 pm
#151 Faron on 02.08.21 at 12:23 pm

Phew, google tells me I’m right, but by a smaller margin than I thought. You can look that up yourself.

The salient point is that if you have half of your workforce getting paid less for the same work (one dimension) and predominantly not achieving the same level of skill as the other half (the other, probably larger, dimension) that’s a problem. In an ideal economy all workers would be working to their potential. You would expect gender and race distribution in positions to more or less match those in the broad population excepting specific jobs where physical strength is critical. It’s getting better over time, but is still far from perfect. It is to everyone’s benefit to bring the level of skill up for all workers and where pay gaps exist, to eliminate them. Denying that these problems exist harms everyone by keeping economic growth from its full potential.

We can tell this is a problem, because over time the statistics have improved as the workplace has matured to be less sexist. But, it’s still not perfect. You can claim all the equality in the world but when dudes predominantly hire dudes (happens especially often in STEM fields if you want to know why look at workplaces like Uber where sexism is endemic) then women can’t even get a toe hold in to achieving equal experience to even begin to argue for equal pay.

#135 Dark Lord on 02.08.21 at 10:32 pm

Mortgage broker Steve and his call for herd immunity by July and whoever misread the Bloomberg estimate of world vax in 7.4 years are both reading comprehension challenged, or just cheerleading because the truth is pretty damned gloomy. The mention of humans being social animals correct , though misplaced in the same context.

a) Bloomberg didn’t calculate world vax in 7, they ran with a story that had Canadian economists projecting that it would take 7 years for Canadians to receive vaccine at the current rates of inoculation distribution under the Trudeau Liberals.

b) as for Steve, slightly bonkers, given that the Trudeau Liberals admit that they will have no contracted supply of vaccine until “fall” , and perhaps that means September or October according to the Trudeau Liberals own pronouncements, there will most certainly not be here immunity by July. Cheerleading is cheerleading, facts are facts.

c) we are social animals no doubt, but to imagine unwinding the urban abandon and suddenly replace a mega trend with a tsunami of migrants, immigrants and international students all within a short period would enter the realm of magic. Those things take time. We’re still waiting , 30 years on, for the demographic shift of Boomers into the macro-secure statistic of a boom bust and echo.

My call is for a lot more pain, a lot more uncertainty. And plenty of rotten politics that open the gates of insolvency hell. Time is not your friend sometimes. Aren’t we still working through the excess inventory created by Alt-a mortgages? How soon we forget. Oh well, cheerleaders with pretty hair and billions in media bribes are why we’re in this mess in the first place.

And yes, rates are going up, stoking the flames. Good call on preferred, I backed up the truck a few bucks ago go go go.

Hail Satan

#136 DON on 02.08.21 at 10:38 pm

@Faron.

Nootka Trail is on my list once my kids are old enough to pack all my gear in.

#137 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 10:42 pm

#99 Ustabe on 02.08.21 at 7:57 pm

And Faron, you both are descending into toddler level only with some big words. Not a good look. Let him be, his arrogance and lack of empathy shines through without any illumination from you.

—————

???

But we were having some pleasant discussions.

Was it the big words? I can assure you they were not combative (that means, like, fighting).

#138 Dave james on 02.08.21 at 10:43 pm

I believe life will return to normal eventually but to say look at what mr market is doing as evidence of how everything will return to normal soon is illogical! No one knows what will happen in the next 6 to 12 months including economists, hedge funds, bond markets. Mr market just has a lot new money atm, period.

#139 shanktown on 02.08.21 at 10:46 pm

Dr V

Thanks. But no one buys mutual funds anyways. That’s like someone advertising that an i7 computer is so much better than a Pentium 4. It’s an irrelevant modern day comparison it seems to me. But thanks regardless.

#140 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 11:06 pm

#102 Faron on 02.08.21 at 8:02 pm

As you have written to me, your words here have some meaning and import that is given further weight by the authority with which you write. Thus saying, effectively, “the garbage patch is a hoax”

————

Yes, correct, there is no garbage patch, although the phrase does tug at the heartstrings.

However, please don’t misconstrue my message: I agree entirely with the research that estimates a total plastic weight of 80,000 tons in the gyre.

The gyre, though, is twice the area of Texas. So… 80,000 tons spread out evenly over 2 Texases? You must realize, if you’re honest, how insignificantly tiny that is.

#141 millmech on 02.08.21 at 11:09 pm

EXRO up another 17% today, treasuries up again, going to be another great year. Mortgage rates have no where to go but up, just wondering how fast they are going to go up, keep buying the banks as they have a captive market for the next 25 years.

#142 Neo on 02.08.21 at 11:10 pm

#29 Dolce Vita on 02.08.21 at 4:08 pm
“His forecast: herd immunity happens by July.”

That from a Broker. OK.

It’s at least 76% per Manaus, Brazil. That many there have had Covid and still cases on the rise spectacularly – going back to last year so it’s not just the Brazil variant, the old fashioned one mostly. Best guess so far, no other evidence exists in the World.

******************************

Dude. New cases peaked in Brazil on January 20th and have been declining ever since. Dial back the fear mongering.

#143 Neo on 02.08.21 at 11:13 pm

@Dolce Vita

By the way, Garth is correct. India has reached herd immunity. Look it up. They did it the old fashion way mostly. Their immune systems.

#144 More Uppa on 02.08.21 at 11:22 pm

Visa prepares for crypto future

In an earnings call with analysts, Kelly says the company will treat the crytocurrency market as two distinct segments: traditional cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and Ether; and fiat-backed digital currencies including stablecoins and central bank digital currencies.

“In this space, we see ways that we can add differentiated value to the ecosystem. And we believe that we are uniquely positioned to help make cryptocurrencies more safe, useful, and applicable for payments through our global presence, our partnership approach, and our trusted brand,” Kelly told analysts.

For the first segment, Visa will work with “wallets and exchanges to enable users to purchase these currencies using their Visa credentials or to cash out onto a Visa credential to make a fiat purchase at any of the 70 million merchants where Visa’s accepted globally”.

This is similar to card scheme’s to connect with closed loop wallets such as Line Pay and Paytm

Visa has already struck card deals with some 35 organisations in the crypto-markets, such as BitPanda and BlockFi. According to Kelly, these wallet relationships “represent the potential for more than 50 million Visa credentials.”

:)

#145 jal on 02.08.21 at 11:24 pm

The following is free, therefore, worthless.
How to end lockdown.
Best covid 19 test – Grey hair
Give covid 19 vaccine to everyone with grey hair
Since you cannot get covid19 if you got the vaccine
Therefore this will end the pandemic

#146 Mutt on 02.08.21 at 11:29 pm

PCR Test Cycles in Canada. This is from July 2020.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322030175X?via%3Dihub

#147 Hilroy on 02.09.21 at 12:12 am

RE : BTC – $42,000

What about the people that gave TESLA their money to build better cars? Now it’s being used to buy BTC?

If I were an investor I’d be concerned.

#148 fishman on 02.09.21 at 12:45 am

Ok, I can’t argue their isn’t lots of liquidity & everything uppa, uppa, uppa. But if there is a turd in the butter barrel its gotta be jobs. Out here good pay, Movies, Lumber, Docks, Mining, Industrial Construction. That kind of money closes ranks quick. If your not in now & unless your immediate family or a red hot skilled ticketed tradesman that doesn’t piss hot, your not getting in. Whats going to pick up the slack? Residential construction, high tech, service industries, tourism? It’ll be a neat trick if “lil potato” can kickstart enough jobs to safely bring in his 1/2 to 3/4 million immigrants, students, workers, refugees.
I did 250k capital expenses. About 150k of that in labour last year. All worth every cent except for one Surrey cowboy I had to run off the claim. This year & in foreseeable future years all capital costs will be for maintenance only. No more capital investments for this cowboy. Garth’s got the ticket. Invest in the big boys.
All of my peers are doing the same. We’re small fry. The game just got too expensive. Not just in R/E, which is a winter hobby. In the racket where I’m a pro, commercial fishing, same. And thats with a family generational handoff I’m still locked out. For now its stay the course. Liquidation not acquisition. Between Vertically integrated food companies, federal govt. buyback programs for natives & CPC hot money its a sellers market. My peers are all in the same boat. Its the big boys playground now. Their the ones that will have to pick up the slack in creating new jobs. There is nobody that I know that has any type of small business that is going to spend one nickel more than absolutely necessary to survive this year. I read some stat that 70% of new jobs are created by small business. Good luck with that.

#149 Nonplused on 02.09.21 at 1:06 am

#118 SoggyShorts on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm
#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm
#160 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 1:12 pm
#151 Faron on 02.08.21 at 12:23 pm
The statistics bear out that women do not get equal pay for equal work in North America especially the US, but also here

———————————–

Where everyone goes wrong with this argument is that it is a fact that on average women earn about 70% of what men earn, but it is not “equal work”. Women tend to chose different careers, specifically avoiding physical labor, dangerous jobs, and bad weather. They are also much more likely to take maternity leave (which is a discussion they can have with their husbands, I prefer not with me).

You raise a good point that so many jobs are either unionized or at minimum wage that it would be near impossible for women to be paid 30% less than men on average for “equal work”. The fact is the work is not equal and neither are the hours.

Are female nurses getting paid 30% less than male nurses? Nope. How about gas station attendants? Nope. Police officers? Nope. Fire fighters? Nope. Judges and lawyers? Nope. We can go on and on but we will find that there is hardly a case where women get paid significantly less than men for “equal work”.

Even the 7% negotiating thing doesn’t hold up. I know because I worked a few jobs in a senior enough position to see what most of the staff was getting paid. There is no way we paid the women less than the men for an equivalent job. First of all they would quit, but secondly there were too many reasons not to try that.

It is a myth that in Canada women earn 30% less than men do for the same job. The proponents of that myth like to substitute “similar work” for “the same job” and figure a secretary in a comfy office should get paid the same as a steel worker who is hanging off the side of a partially complete skyrise by a safety harness. But that is not how it works. Mike Rowe’s “Dirty Jobs” will always command more pay than serving ice cream or arranging flowers part time.

(PS one day I called out the suck truck and the owner’s daughter was running it that day. Some women do the dirty jobs and they get paid the same as the men when they do.)

#150 Nonplused on 02.09.21 at 1:21 am

#118 SoggyShorts on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm

PS in one particular position I had 3 women and one man reporting to me. One of the women was a summer student so let’s leave her out of it, although she did go on to full time employment with the company and was quite brilliant.

But let’s look at the full timers. Both of the women earned more than the man, mostly due to seniority, and they were quite good at their assigned jobs. But the man brought something the women did not. He could use SQL and other programming languages like a savant. Our tasks were highly data dependent, so we all relied on him. But he got about $20,000 a yeas LESS than the women did, even though he was indispensable.

So I think the whole pay gap thing is a joke unless you want to turn the question back to why there aren’t more women in senior positions and dangerous or icky jobs. Many women drive school buses but not so much snow plows. Why is that? Well, driving the school bus takes 3 hours a day and you can bring you kids along, whereas when it snows the snow plow driver starts at 4 am and might not be done until 9 pm. Not kid friendly.

#151 The Runaway Train on 02.09.21 at 1:23 am

BTC : $47,000

the tulip is blossoming !!!!!!!

whhhhhhooooooooooooohooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

#152 TJ on 02.09.21 at 2:05 am

With the direction that Canada is headed, you could sack up, saddle up, and actually do some good with the name and fortune you’ve built for yourself. Or you could harp on balanced portfolios until you die.

We’re headed in a bad direction, and you know it. You have more opportunity to do something than most. Since you seem to have a huge tolerance for abuse, maybe it’s time to wade back into the thick of it, Garth. This blog isn’t enough.

#153 BillyBob on 02.09.21 at 6:07 am

#85 Faron on 02.08.21 at 7:15 pm
#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:22 pm

@176 Penny Henny
“I am curious about one thing though Faron, other than your partner do you have any friends?”

Ah damn. You got me. I was hoping Turner Nation would be my friend, but no dice. My partner is actually a stuffed pineapple. I live in a burned-out bus in the coastal woods of Haida Gwaii living off of wash-up and surfing on scraps of marine plywood that come ashore from time to time. My loin cloth is made of the Pacific Garbage patch and ravens groom my hair and nibble the few parasites that exist up here. Occasionally I catch a sexual partner but eventually the differing viewpoints we share drive us apart. But at least I still have pineapple. You are welcome to join Penny.

Penny?

Helloo?

Are you still there?

============================

So, no friends.

Maybe it’s the anger issues?

#154 Howard on 02.09.21 at 7:17 am

Faron :

Do you have a single example of a woman with the same job, same experience, same education, in the same location and same industry, same company (or at least similar market share or size)….earning less than a man of equivalent credentials?

Just one example?

Or are you going full Cathy Newman on us and presenting these ideas as self-evident with no backup required?

#155 Howard on 02.09.21 at 7:29 am

#149 Nonplused on 02.09.21 at 1:06 am

Where everyone goes wrong with this argument is that it is a fact that on average women earn about 70% of what men earn, but it is not “equal work”. Women tend to chose different careers, specifically avoiding physical labor, dangerous jobs, and bad weather. They are also much more likely to take maternity leave (which is a discussion they can have with their husbands, I prefer not with me).

————————————-

This is plainly obvious to anyone with an ounce of critical thinking ability and I’m astonished how often it needs to be explained to otherwise educated, intelligent individuals.

Women in aggregate are correlated to lower pay but not simply because they are women. Correlation vs. causation. The now-famous Jordan Peterson / Cathy Newman “debate” could be summed as Dr. Peterson trying to educate Ms. Newman on the difference correlation and causation.

I don’t think Faron is unintelligent, far from it, but my goodness he does seem to buy into these notions uncritically.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.09.21 at 7:41 am

@#154 Howard

Careful Howard.
Fact and reason can be construed as misogyny.

#157 the Jaguar on 02.09.21 at 8:27 am

Article in this mornings FP about Consumer Insolvencies being the lowest since 2002, but then there is the last bit which explains a lot…..

‘Income support from the federal government and payment holidays from lenders kept Canadian households from fraying during the worst months of the pandemic, even as more than 3 million people were thrown out of work. Official data from Statistics Canada showed disposable income and savings rates actually increased during the lockdowns.

“With households having more income on average, that accounts for a lot of this diminution in activity,” André bolduc, executive board member at the Canadian Association of Insolvency and restructuring Professionals, said in a phone interview. “but in addition to that, creditors were not enforcing, people were getting deferrals.”

But there are indications things may be gradually returning to normal. Fourth-quarter insolvencies jumped 13 per cent from the three months before that, the largest quarterly increase since 2009.’

#158 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.09.21 at 9:07 am

To the moon is right!

Another 2 murderous shootings overnight in Toronthole!

https://globalnews.ca/news/7628754/shooting-lawrence-pharmacy-sage-toronto/

Everyone there, you can forget about the hard work of
financial planning or real estate flipping.

Just get LIFE INSURANCE :)

Your grief-stricken families will be RICH!!!!

They can become Make Believe season ticket holder losers!!!

#159 lol on 02.09.21 at 9:08 am

@Dolce Vita

By the way, Garth is correct. India has reached herd immunity. Look it up. They did it the old fashion way mostly. Their immune systems.

………

dolce vita’s posts on covid have been amusing. The time this poor soul has put into the topic is incredible. Actually believes he knows what he’s talking about

harmless, so let him go

#160 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.09.21 at 9:20 am

DELETED. Enough

#161 IHCTD9 on 02.09.21 at 9:48 am

#148 fishman on 02.09.21 at 12:45 am

There is nobody that I know that has any type of small business that is going to spend one nickel more than absolutely necessary to survive this year. I read some stat that 70% of new jobs are created by small business. Good luck with that.
___

In the last 12-13 years, many of the OG Ontario small biz owners supporting manufacturing (steel industry) have passed away or sailed off into retirement. There are pretty much just two ways: They sell out to a large foreign corp, or they liquidate hard assets getting nothing for the company itself. Very few pass thru family to be run by kids, a few get bought by other small interests/investors.

Now with Trudeau and his loony bin caucus, you’d pretty much have to be a sucker for punishment to try and run a small biz in some OG Canadian sector. It’s all going to suffer for a decade at least at this point post JT. Half of a career or more.

Why bother?

#162 Dharma Bum on 02.09.21 at 9:55 am

#114 Ponzius Pilatus

Congrats on your 80th birthday.
Wow, you seem much younger.
Following the Buddhism lifestyle obviously did wonders for you.
——————————————————————-

My mother is in a long term care facility. She’s 98 years old.

I was contacted by the facility to be advised that all the residents would be getting the vaccine. Because I am on record as her “caregiver” (i.e., POA), they are authorized to vaccinate me as well (at my option). So I took it.

I figured I’d get it over with. After all, I’ll be in my eighties in less than 20 years, just about the same time that the remaining unwashed masses in Canada will be vaccinated. If they’re lucky.

#163 Renaldo Spurious on 02.09.21 at 10:07 am

The markets are going up and up…. based on expectations of massive profits from the spending of government transfers to the already well enough off to save it. Or those that saved on gas and parking and canceled a trip to Cuba.

Is market valuation about backing and physical value? Given BTC – I guess not. Backed by nothing. Is the broader market much different? Has economic output increased or will it increase quickly post covid beyond March 2020 levels? Were loads of new factories, infrastructure and materials produced to drive efficiency gains and expand production? Maybe some in China… apparently they can build large infrastructure in a week. Will GDP jump to the heights the market predicts to back nose-bleed valuations? Just like mass vaccination rollouts – The quicker the change, usually the greater the inefficiency. Might be a good change – just won’t be pretty while it’s happening.

On top of this, the coming drive from the US government for alternative energy and a myriad of build better projects will drive energy prices and taxes through the proverbial roof or keep driving up the already exorbitant national debt until it is truly unsustainable.

I see Canada following not far behind….

I can’t wait for the next federal and provincial budgets – they will be epic.

#164 Stone on 02.09.21 at 10:11 am

Oh well. The lust for real estate will never end.

https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1358283305066647554?s=20

They should get Dan Levy to do something similar for ETFs. Lol.

#165 Sail Away on 02.09.21 at 10:19 am

#137 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 10:42 pm
#99 Ustabe on 02.08.21 at 7:57 pm

Let [Sail Away] be, his arrogance and lack of empathy shines through without any illumination from you.

———–

Wow. Ouch. What have I ever done to you?

Well, except that one thing… but to be fair, it probably saved a lot of trouble- getting drunk is no excuse for running around downtown with underwear on your head yelling about 50′ waves. And we did let you out of the bilge after sobering up.

#166 IHCTD9 on 02.09.21 at 10:36 am

#152 TJ on 02.09.21 at 2:05 am
With the direction that Canada is headed, you could sack up, saddle up, and actually do some good with the name and fortune you’ve built for yourself. Or you could harp on balanced portfolios until you die.

We’re headed in a bad direction, and you know it. You have more opportunity to do something than most. Since you seem to have a huge tolerance for abuse, maybe it’s time to wade back into the thick of it, Garth. This blog isn’t enough.
____

It’s a nice thought, but Mr. T would have to get elected to wade back into the soup. Today’s Canadians want to be “mothered” by their government. Garth would need to do all the things any other Canadian Politician would need to do to get elected – ie. free money and handouts + drool over SJW issues like we’re a country filled with cavemen and barbarians.

Harping on investing and staying out of big debt from here on in may not be such a bad idea. You obviously see where we’re going, and the end result will be a lower standard of living, and shrinking prosperity. It’s going to be up to us to provide it for ourselves as opportunity shrivels.

I know a young Indian dude, moved here, got a good education, then a job in the GTA. ~30 years old, works two jobs totaling 85-94 hours per week. Even after this herculean effort, 5 years later: no car, no house, no buds, no fun, no Woman.

Work, eat, sleep, skid sideways. Welcome to Canada.

#167 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.21 at 10:42 am

#66 “ This is a feature, not a bug.
With all due respect you’re missing the big picture Garth.”

Worst thing about BTC?

Lose your password to your digital wallet and it’s GAME OVER.

There is no password recovery, no one you can goto for help. Several stories of folks with millions in BTC inaccessible due to lost passwords.

BTC will never become mainstream with that ‘feature’.

#168 millmech on 02.09.21 at 10:48 am

Looks like EXRO will double my cash outlay in less than a week, this is almost as good as GME was.

#169 The West on 02.09.21 at 11:17 am

#149 Nonpulsed:

It’s an argument you can’t win – no matter what the data shows we’ve been conditioned to put feelings before facts.

Everything you say here is correct.

The fake woke crowd wants to feel the way they do. They’ve been taught feelings to over compensate for inadequacy. A clever tool for social division as it provides no resistance to top down rule.

#170 SeeB on 02.09.21 at 11:36 am

Expect froth. In 2021, everything goes up. Golden retriever pups are already $3,000.

——————————————————–

Just dropped $4K on a very well bred Cavalier King Charles Spaniel puppy.

Worth every penny.

#171 Job#1 on 02.09.21 at 11:37 am

#127 kc

I used the “<" (less than symbol) because 35 cycles is the least they run. Some places over 40.
WHO's guidance says that the probability of a positive result indicating an active infection is inversely proportional to the number of amplification cycles. By 35 cycles, that probability has dropped to 3%! This is because it has been impossible to culture a live virus from a sample requiring more than 34 cycles to produce a positive result.
The PCR test found the inert/dead remnants from previous exposure/infection. These remnants can neither infect the carrier nor anyone else.
It is now recommended to use 25 – 30 cycles, and only in conjunction with symptoms, onset timing, etc., can a clinical determination of infection be pronounced.

I have met the same glazed look you refer to when explaining these details. I hardly ever bother to hold forth any more, -what's the use?

#172 Sail Away on 02.09.21 at 11:39 am

#167 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.21 at 10:42 am

Worst thing about BTC?

Lose your password to your digital wallet and it’s GAME OVER.

There is no password recovery, no one you can goto for help. Several stories of folks with millions in BTC inaccessible due to lost passwords.

————

On the flip side, bitcoin can’t be confiscated:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/police-seize-e50m-of-bitcoin-but-fraudster-wont-give-them-the-password/amp/

Of course, there’s also nothing stopping Russian mobsters from removing bodyparts until the password is revealed.

#173 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.21 at 11:43 am

153 BillyBob

So, no friends.

Maybe it’s the anger issues?
—————————-
You’re talking about CEF?

#174 Howard on 02.09.21 at 11:47 am

The lady in cabinet with the Karen haircut now says that some ineligible CERB recipients won’t have to repay. Who’s surprised?

I expect this to become a full jubilee (nobody pays back anything). After all, how can the government justify forgiving incorrect or fraudulent CERB claims by some but not others?

Just write it off, Trudeau.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/some-ineligible-self-employed-cerb-recipients-won-t-be-forced-to-repay-government-says-1.5301484

#175 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.21 at 11:55 am

#166 IHTC8
know a young Indian dude, moved here, got a good education, then a job in the GTA. ~30 years old, works two jobs totaling 85-94 hours per week. Even after this herculean effort, 5 years later: no car, no house, no buds, no fun, no Woman.

Work, eat, sleep, skid sideways. Welcome to Canada.
——————
Lots of Indians here in Vancouver.
Most of them doing very well.

#176 Sail Away on 02.09.21 at 11:59 am

#133 Ed on 02.08.21 at 10:17 pm

So I’ve been in the “garbage patch”…nothing there. I guess that 22 year old vacuumed it all up the other year?

I been around some, about 25,000 nm’s of open ocean. I saw maybe 15′ swell in 40+ knots of wind, also seen a lot of lies in port.

30′ is reserved for the Indian Ocean once in a lifetime…maybe.

————

Hey- how about I round up $150k research funding and we spend a couple weeks sampling with a homemade seine off a whisker pole in July?

It’s your boat- I’d bring the sampling equipment, labour (me) and funding, and write up the report at the end. 60/40 split? I bet Justin ponies up the cash without even talking to Greenpeace.

#177 Mehling on 02.09.21 at 12:01 pm

Hi Garth, regarding Bitcoin, I’m assuming there is no capital gains tax applied, hence a major issue for CRA / IRS?

Just thinking of the hypothetical Tesla car purchase example.

Of course gains are taxable. – Garth

#178 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:03 pm

#153 BillyBob on 02.09.21 at 6:07 am

#85 Faron on 02.08.21 at 7:15 pm
#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:22 pm

@176 Penny Henny

=========

So, no friends.

Maybe it’s the anger issues?

Yeah, still hoping that if I’m enough of an a hole you will see me as one of your kind and befriend me.

#179 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:12 pm

#136 DON on 02.08.21 at 10:38 pm

@Faron.

Nootka Trail is on my list once my kids are old enough to pack all my gear in

Ha, cool, I hope you enjoy it. Most fly into the north end and take the Uchuck III out. I found the boat ride really enjoyable on top of everything else.

#180 SeeB on 02.09.21 at 12:15 pm

#149 Nonplused on 02.09.21 at 1:06 am

#118 SoggyShorts on 02.08.21 at 8:55 pm
#174 Faron on 02.08.21 at 2:04 pm
#160 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 1:12 pm
#151 Faron on 02.08.21 at 12:23 pm
The statistics bear out that women do not get equal pay for equal work in North America especially the US, but also here

“…but it is not “equal work”. Women tend to chose different careers, specifically avoiding physical labor, dangerous jobs, and bad weather. They are also much more likely to take maternity leave (which is a discussion they can have with their husbands, I prefer not with me).”

—————————————

Maternity/paternity leave shouldn’t be a reason to penalize parenity for having a child. If you are wondering why men don’t do it, setting aside the obvious cultural reasons, it’s usually because men haven’t undergone the stress of pregnancy and child birth (physcial, hormonal), less likely to have challenges like postpartum, and also tend to make more money due to the aforementioned gender wage gap, so their leave would more penalizing to the botton line; a self-fulfilling prophesy that further extends the gap.

When we add the cultural reasons back in… oh-boy.

The gap isn’t a myth though:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4142982/gender-pay-gap-not-a-myth/

One of the examples you provided, nurses, actually does have a gap. Even many jobs where the physical demands aren’t high at all have a significant gap:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/20-jobs-that-have-the-biggest-gender-wage-gaps-in-canada/

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2018/11/28/pay-gap

I would like to point out unless a parent’s current job pays significantly more than child care costs, then it doesn’t make sense for that parent to return to their job until the kids are in school. As I stated earlier, that usually means women.

It’s painful that the two main parties that run this country, despite their attempts to shout how much they love families more than the other, never could find it in their hearts and brains to provide better laws and supports for new parents.

While many of the “conspiracy commenters” on this blog doomsay about secret UN “population control” programs, they seem to overlook the very simple fact that the current economy is structured to discourage having children.

#181 mike from mtl on 02.09.21 at 12:21 pm

#167 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.21 at 10:42 am

..BTC will never become mainstream with that ‘feature’.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Right that and it is very slow and inconvenient for the vast majority of transactions. Apart from buying drugs or ransomware, BTC and the like are a giant scam.

Until any of them have quick parity and exchange with Fiat, it’s nothing more than scrip. You better believe that challenging the current world of Fiat, Gov and CB will step in. Yes Fiat is backed by nothing as well, except for a huge tax-base and the fact anyone will accept US$. Right the IRS is just going to sit back and do nothing?

Yes we are probably going to get an official crypto version of our Fiat to close the cash loophole and CB ultimate traceability.

Same was said about PayPal nearly 20 years ago and what happened? They got wide usage, Gov stepped in and are now regulated like a wire transfer service.

#182 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:21 pm

#140 Sail Away on 02.08.21 at 11:06 pm

#102 Faron on 02.08.21 at 8:02 pm

Sure, but the fact remains that plastics show up in the carcasses of sea critters who frequent the patch and the surroundings. It’s also a fact the the time integrated amount of plastic is huge even if the amount at any one time is small. Large fluxes can pass through small reservoirs.

#183 IHCTD9 on 02.09.21 at 12:30 pm

Look! a Castle for 9 Mil in Hamilton:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ravenscliffe-castle-for-sale-1.5896212

Actually, the price is 8,888,888. and presumably 88 cents.

With all those 8’s, I don’t even need to wish the current owners good luck with sale…

#184 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:32 pm

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.09.21 at 7:41 am

@#154 Howard

And Nonplused and soggy

When controlled for like-work, experience and all else, there is still a wage gap that falls along gender and racial lines. The facts bear this out. Believing otherwise is adhering to a phantasm that sexism in the workplace is over. The additional dimension that sexism and sexual harassment persist is a headwind to female (or other genders and sexualities) advancement on top of the other problems. I’m curious to know what you hope to gain or fear losing by pretending these problems are a woke fantasy? Seriously, why are you afraid of this? Puttin the “The West’s” conspiratorial nuttiness aside of course. That view doesn’t merit attention, full stop.

#185 kc on 02.09.21 at 12:39 pm

#75 kc

I have been unable to find a single jurisdiction, anywhere in North America, where Cycle threshold is <35.
Nobody cares about WHO's recent (Jan. 20, 2021) guidance re RT-PCR.
An inexcusable fraud perpetrated on an unsuspecting public.

xxx
171 Job#1 on 02.09.21 at 11:37 am

I used the “35 means 35 is smaller.

thats what i meant to say but i think might be programming … as it didn’t show up.

cheers… we are talking the same talk… deer in headlights.

cheers

#186 Hilroy on 02.09.21 at 12:46 pm

#66 JR

Bitcoin was created to solve a technical issue in digital currencies – double spending. The value of each “coin” will be determined by its use .
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublespending.asp

Princeton U. has a free online course that goes deep into it.

#187 Doug in London on 02.09.21 at 12:46 pm

Wow, the way stock markets have been going up these days I’m so glad to have bought 11 months ago when everything was on sale. What to do going forward? If Uncle garth’s Predictions are right, it may be a good time to take some profits. And put the money where? By that time, if interest rates go up, it will be a good time to get back into bonds. In other words, reverse the flow from 11 months ago.

There’s a lot of talk of BTC here. As I prefer to invest like an engine with a governor, I think BTC is short for before top centre of ignition timing.

#188 Ustabe on 02.09.21 at 1:02 pm

…no excuse for running around downtown with underwear on your head yelling about 50′ waves.

Swell are not waves.

Swell without wind or tidal current = fun.
Swell with wind and/or tidal current = scary.

I was talking about 30′ swell. Your conversion now has me with underwear on my head in 50′ waves? Is that literary license or simply your homoerotic fantasy about me rearing its head…again?

I’ll repeat…swell are not waves. Two totally different things. I would think a blue water expert level sailor would know that.

#189 BillyBob on 02.09.21 at 1:05 pm

#178 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:03 pm
#153 BillyBob on 02.09.21 at 6:07 am

#85 Faron on 02.08.21 at 7:15 pm
#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.21 at 3:22 pm

@176 Penny Henny

=========

So, no friends.

Maybe it’s the anger issues?

Yeah, still hoping that if I’m enough of an a hole you will see me as one of your kind and befriend me.

===============================

I’ve already reached out to help with your little “problem”, solved for both genders. What more can I do?

But look on the bright side, when Garth does his annual tally of comments, you’ll definitely be a contender in the highest number per day and maybe even in total overall.

So even with no friends, you’ll have that at least.

#190 JB on 02.09.21 at 1:08 pm

#86 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:17 pm

#2 Jimmy Zhao on 02.08.21 at 2:58 pm

“Why bother impeaching Trump. He’s gone, let him ride off into the sunset already.”

Here is an interesting article:

https://time.com/magazine/us/?fbclid=IwAR02kTXwD7PnzUdGPlzf8KOF_LUCextXSsYkK9k-N-iLyMs3T3z6LX6hBVEpage%2F2page%2F6page%2F7page%2F3page%2F3page%2F2page%2F2page%2F2page%2F3page%2F5page%2F4page/485

If you read it with your “propaganda reverse translator” turned on, you will see that the criminals are trying to normalize their behavior. And they are doing it out in the open!
………………………………………………………………

#191 JB on 02.09.21 at 1:14 pm

#86 Nonplused on 02.08.21 at 7:17 pm

#2 Jimmy Zhao on 02.08.21 at 2:58 pm

“Why bother impeaching Trump. He’s gone, let him ride off into the sunset already.”

Here is an interesting article:

https://time.com/magazine/us/?fbclid=IwAR02kTXwD7PnzUdGPlzf8KOF_LUCextXSsYkK9k-N-iLyMs3T3z6LX6hBVEpage%2F2page%2F6page%2F7page%2F3page%2F3page%2F2page%2F2page%2F2page%2F3page%2F5page%2F4page/485

If you read it with your “propaganda reverse translator” turned on, you will see that the criminals are trying to normalize their behavior. And they are doing it out in the open!
………………………………………………………………
The Isreali ministers ordered the Mossad, Israel’s feared and respected foreign espionage agency, to never give up the hunt for Nazi war criminals. Crimes must be punished. So do we give Trump a hall pass?

#192 kc on 02.09.21 at 1:52 pm

#146 Mutt on 02.08.21 at 11:29 pm

PCR Test Cycles in Canada. This is from July 2020.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322030175X?via%3Dihub

XXX

thanks. cheers.

read it over and looks like all testing was 35< above 35
thanks

now think about that… all people entering canada must have neg tests and 72 hours before entry… everyone should read this paper and understand what it all means. educate what a PCR test actually is and what results are.

its all bogus medicine.

cheers

#193 Dan in Nanaimo on 02.09.21 at 1:56 pm

The FED is the market. Full stop. Resistance is futile… until they lose control of the long end of the curve. Negative rates are coming.

#194 Faron on 02.09.21 at 2:02 pm

#189 BillyBob on 02.09.21 at 1:05 pm

#178 Faron on 02.09.21 at 12:03 pm

So, you wont be flying me into Bajo point? Bummer.

#195 Freckles on 02.09.21 at 2:06 pm

#152 TJ on 02.09.21 at 2:05 am
With the direction that Canada is headed, you could sack up, saddle up, and actually do some good with the name and fortune you’ve built for yourself. Or you could harp on balanced portfolios until you die.

We’re headed in a bad direction, and you know it. You have more opportunity to do something than most. Since you seem to have a huge tolerance for abuse, maybe it’s time to wade back into the thick of it, Garth. This blog isn’t enough.

————-

Sorry, gotta jump in here. I don’t need to speak on Garth’s behalf, but I’m going to. Garth has done more for people, and this country, than I can guess you ever will. He has employed dozens of people, represented his constituency with integrity and is helping hundreds, if not thousands of Canadians with their financial futures. He clearly has a successful marriage and runs a profitable business, again, employing people who support their families and their communities. Not to mention giving his dogs an amazing home and life (condolences on Bandit). Your post reeks of an embedded culture of victimization. You are pointing your finger at someone else, whom in your mind, should be doing something for you (and everyone else). Your lack of success or influence is not Garth’s problem. Nor mine. Take some responsibility for your own life, decisions and potential and get on with it. Within your own sphere of influence, you can help someone else, volunteer, better your education, learn a new skill, etc. No, or very little, money required. I’m sick of people who want everyone else to do everything for them (or others), and blame everyone else for their perceived woes.

#196 Sail Away on 02.09.21 at 2:09 pm

#188 Ustabe on 02.09.21 at 1:02 pm

I would think a blue water expert level sailor would know that.

————–

Aw shucks, I’m blushing. Nobody’s ever called me an expert sailor before.

#197 Bob Dog on 02.09.21 at 2:21 pm

A brilliant video about how blockchain, crypto and yes Bitcoin actually work.

https://youtu.be/bBC-nXj3Ng4

The proof of work is key to trust. Without it blockchain is useless. Unfortunately it requires using ungodly amounts of electricity and computer time that could be used for more productive things like finding a cure for cancer.

#198 Ustabe on 02.09.21 at 2:44 pm

The Isreali ministers ordered the Mossad, Israel’s feared and respected foreign espionage agency, to never give up the hunt for Nazi war criminals. Crimes must be punished. So do we give Trump a hall pass?

Charles Manson never killed anyone that we know of.
He was jailed.

The Nuremberg Trials were held long after the events that precipitated them and many of those found guilty never even left Berlin, never mind killed anyone.

Mulroney was charged years after the Airbus shenanigans went down.

Photo radar or red light tickets are issued long after the transgression.

I’m still paying for a cocktail waitress/hot tub transgression 46 years ago. Paying gladly mind you but still…

#199 Phylis on 02.09.21 at 3:14 pm

#197 Bob Dog on 02.09.21 at 2:21 pm The quantum cracker might be the answer to both.

#200 maxx on 02.09.21 at 5:03 pm

@ #17

All of these house horny RE buyers were told that “the budget will balance itself”. Why not theirs? ;-)