Juiced

This will be a rutting season unlike any other. But will the hormonal beasts pawing and trampling their way through the suburban underbrush be making wise nesting decisions? Maybe not.

Let’s review the facts.

Non-urban real estate has been goosed beyond reason by the slimy little pathogen. Houses in godforsaken places like Abbotsford and Scugog, Squamish and Caledon have seen massive increases in sales and prices. As this blog has detailed of late, crazed people are paying a million for a semi in Pickering and well into seven figures for a particle board factory house in Milton. Even Nanaimo and Kamloops are smoldering.

In fact, the virus has caused the absolute reverse of a long-standing rule, “drive until you qualify.” Now house price increases are the greatest the further you stray from urbanity. Look at the Ontario experience – places where it’s impossible to commute from (Guelph, Kingston, Woodstock, Barrie, Waterloo) have seen double-digit hikes, shocking the locals. In far-flung King, for example, sales jumped 75% in the last nine months and prices climbed 20% – al the way to $1.798 million. Yeah, to live with cows. The average in Caledon is now $1.3 million. And it still takes an hour in light traffic and a fast car to get downtown.

But wait. The core’s dead, right?

Not so fast, says a new report from the geniuses at CIBC. When Covid crashes, the economists believe, the suburban thing may come down with it. “Should COVID fade into the background, as is expected, the vibrancy of cities will return and so will the demand for housing within them,” they state. “Workers who think they’ll be allowed to work remotely forever may be making a bad bet. The question for many employers is not if they will end work-from-home policies, rather it’s simply a question of when they will require employees to return to the office.”

Whoa. Drive from Abby to downtown YVR every day? Or face a trek from the top of Death Highway 400 back into Toronto’s core? Are they nuts?

Well, here’s the argument…

  • Workplaces will reopen quickly and routinely once the herd is dosed, like in Q3 of 2021. After all, employers have been sitting on expensive real estate for more than a year, and have watched worker productivity crash as people get comfortable spending hunks of their days with dogs, kids, groceries, yoga & laundry. And gin.
  • The reopening might well be on a hybrid basis – two or three days a week. But still, what a change that will be for the sweatpants cohort.
  • Cities are coming back. Repopulating offices will do that. So will the ending of lockdowns that have crippled service industries, keeping bars, retailers, restaurants, gyms and hair salons shut. Plus immigration. The feds plan on making up for virus restrictions by allowing 400,000 new Canadians to join us. Most will be urbanites. They’ll need places to live.
  • “The population numbers make the case that fundamental demand for city living wasn’t as bad as perceived,” says CIBC, “and some of the fears surrounding downside risks for real estate tied to urban population growth might be overdone.” You bet. As detailed here yesterday with recent city condo sales stats, it’s already happening.
  • As the virus fades, tourism will return. Plus business travel. And pro sports. All of that is urban-centric and none of it involves horses, tractors or root vegetables.
  • The escalation in suburban and Hicksville real estate was so extreme, so sudden, so overdone, that the traditional price differential between urban and rural properties is gone. So if you have to commute 100 km to get to work, shortening your life, why not just move back into town?
  • The economics of real estate are about to change. Interest and mortgage rates will be rising far, far sooner the most people realize. No spike, but the start of a gradual tightening that will change property pricing as more potential buyers are punted. Already, as National Bank points out, the average family can’t afford the average house as it takes 5 years to save a down payment. This is the worst situation ever. It tops the 1989 real estate apex, which led to the 1992 housing crash.
  • So? Lower affordability and declining valuations for non-urban property mean the universe of buyers for houses in the pastures and distant cities will shrink. Fast. Likely in 2022.

Hmmm. It suggests some surprises may be in store. If a temporary but intense event like a global pandemic can cause this weirdness – large-scale WFH and rural real estate escalation – then its exit can bring the opposite. It also begs a question: how could so many people be so naïve as to believe they’d never go back to work, continue to be paid, and could move to a bucolic glade in the woods? Have the folks stampeding into bidding wars for hinterland houses that inflated 50% or more in ten months lost their minds?

Well, it’s February. Spring cometh. As we say on this pathetic blog, be careful when the saps flow.

197 comments ↓

#1 Angus Highlend on 02.04.21 at 1:23 pm

Interesting dynamics on housing around the GTA.

A week ago a small detached in a serene university town just west of TO listed for $700k sells in a couple of days for about $950k with many offers. Don’t even try if you have a condition, especially having the place inspected or even asking if the basement apartment is actually legal. It’s under a $1M what could go wrong?

A quick check on Zolo this morning. Of the last 10 houses on the sold listings – 7 are shown as relisted – even though they have been on the market for only a few days. Financing fell through (but would be silly to take an offer dependent on financing one would think…??) or just trying to keep the DOM down?

Will the inevitable correction lead to better regulation of real estate? Purely rhetorical… I can’t wait for the next house buying support program.

#2 Kiril Peev on 02.04.21 at 1:24 pm

I see two likely scenarios playing out

1. The vaccine works and we get back to normal. Probably towards the end of 2021.

2. The vaccine does not work or works partially. We continue on this road with some sort of hybrid re-entry back into the office and human contact but at a much lower overall activity.

Either way we seem to be reaching some kind of peak with respect to home prices and lack of listings.

10 years look at months of inventory vs. median sale prices in Ottawa. This is going to have to rebalance at some point.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=120323483300661&id=101873805145629

#3 TurnerNation on 02.04.21 at 1:27 pm

Learn how the game is played lads. The spoils of this WW3. Globe had reported Cannabis companies receiving tons of CEWS free money from the Govt.
Yet their stock prices are on fire, why not an equity issuance over public money?
You cannot walk half a block in Toronto without a new Cannabis shop opening up – this map has the staggering print on our land scape. T2’s Soma: https://www.agco.ca/sites/default/files/map/ONT_CN_ST_E.html

But if in the new global system you were deemed ‘Not Essential’, well you get the CEBA loans. Helpfully the Feds even increased the loan maximum. More debt for you. $15/hr is the Maximum Wage under globalism. UBI will be about this much.

The Game in Kanada lads!! McCain Billionaires family get free money “for jobs”. But your small business is ordered shut by the globalist regime. Onto UBI you go:
https://huddle.today/ottawa-province-invest-5-million-to-help-create-80-jobs-at-mccain-foods/


–Just 28 more days…the march toward UBI. This science at its best. #reset
https://www.blogto.com/city/2021/02/toronto-officially-extending-its-covid-19-bylaws-until-june/


———– SCARY:

– ON is actively and clearly talking about suspending (more) rights, polling on this exact question. This is about a virus yes?

(It appears we will be facing more restrictions each year as “Agenda 2030” is rolled out. This IS NOT going away, not in any (former) First World Country. Predicting again, a “new strain” will be used to cancel Christm…err I mean XMAS 2021)

-> Most scary thing you will see. Screen shots of you being polled exactly on giving up rights, are here. https://www.nomorelockdowns.ca/questions


—Checkpoints are being normalized: In Q1, as per that “crazy leaked plan”. EVERY remaining leader is on board. Those that we not, were purged early January. We saw the 2 dozen hit.
This will kill tourism and jobs. More fodder toward a UBI.

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/bigger-premier-ford-has-committed-to-explore-options-for-highway-checkpoints-3317807
“Following a call by Greater Sudbury Mayor Brian Bigger and several other prominent Sudburians for a Northern Ontario COVID-19 bubble, the mayor said he was able to speak to Ontario Premier Doug Ford about the issue Tuesday evening.
Bigger is calling for the implementation of safety measures such as checkpoints to stem traffic of unnecessary travellers coming north.”

#4 David Bergin on 02.04.21 at 1:30 pm

Here in Portland, my wife is going back to the office in July.

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:34 pm

About the internet dog.
This is the original cartoon.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f8/Internet_dog.jpg

#6 cramar on 02.04.21 at 1:40 pm

Speaking of housing… back a little over 2 months ago RE/MAX published this article:

How Did Windsor Become the Hottest Housing Market in Canada?
https://blog.remax.ca/how-did-windsor-become-the-hottest-housing-market-in-canada/

The title might be a bit of hype, but like other areas mentioned, Windsor (just a 5 hr. commute to downtown TO) has been HOT!

Projection for 2021 is for 15-20% increase in prices. If this national insanity keeps going, I wouldn’t be shocked if that proves to be on the low side.

Windsor Housing Market Outlook (2021)
https://blog.remax.ca/windsor-housing-market-outlook/

There have been recent studies on how to partner with Detroit for meg-growth opportunities once this pandemic is over. (New Gordie Howe Bridge is one reason, mega-hospital another.) I can see a real boom economy in four-five years, which would justify the hot market now. Windsor is now still cheap relative to the 905 areas, being about half price or less (see chart in the last link).

#7 Out here ... on 02.04.21 at 1:42 pm

Whoa. Drive from Abby to downtown YVR every day?

a lot of people that I used to work with were doing this before Covid. Some even from beyond Abby … tis why the “freeway” is a parking lot. Know one guy that lives in Sumas Prairie that retired 15 years ago because of the traffic between there and New West back then. Yikes.

#8 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.04.21 at 1:43 pm

I have been WFH for 11 months and today I was selected to do a survey and conduct an interview with HR regarding the possibility of making it permanent or at least making it a hybrid remote/office work scenario post-Covid.

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 1:45 pm

@#5 Panting Pooch

Explains a lot.

#10 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 1:47 pm

Garth,

Your points are reasonable…except for the timeframe.

There is no way we’re “normal” by Q3 2021 with the Trudeau Liberals fumbling and bumbling vaccine procurement.

Our vaccine rollout has been A JOKE.
Just compare the figures to the US – Kanuckistan is eating their dust.

#11 Dolce Vita on 02.04.21 at 1:48 pm

I hate Real Estate.

But I love your Blog theme as of late:

“The Greater Fool single handedly trying to repopulate the desolate downtown cores of Canada, one Blog reader at a time” – so far, Canadians not buying it.

Keep the faith My Liege you will be vindicated.

————————–

Et tū, Brūte Canada?

Covax: Getting no or low cost vax to the majority of the World’s population = POOR COUNTRIES, the most vulnerable of ALL to Covid.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covax-explained

“Canada to receive significant doses from Covax fund despite already securing 9.6 doses per person”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/04/coronavirus-live-news-canada-has-secured-nearly-10-vaccine-doses-per-person-us-deaths-pass-450000?page=with:block-601b3de98f08c3a6ff7fb194#block-601b3de98f08c3a6ff7fb194

“CTV National News: A contentious vaccine source”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2132645

——————————

Sickens me this DESPERATE act to achieve some ARTIFICIAL “All vax’d by Sept” goal whilst the World’s poor will DIE because of this action, theft of life saving vax from them.

Apparently to the King of SJW’s himself, PM Trudeau:

1 Cdn life >>> 1 Foreign poor person’s life.

A shameful day for Canada. Sickens me.

#12 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:51 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

OMG, hardly. Speak for yourself. I’ll leave that kind of coin to a bank or broker to defend, thanks. Luxury material goods are anchors. Ask yourself if you would rest as easily in Praha if you had six figures worth of painting hanging on your wall in an empty house back in Canada? Now ask the same question of the six figures in your bank/investment account? Right?
***********
But… insurance?
” Theft/damage insurance for art added onto your home or renter’s insurance policy generally costs in the range of $1-$3 annually per $1000 of coverage (less if you have a good security system in place in which case costs can be lower)”

If you enjoy looking at art (and that’s kinda the point of it) then it’s not money wasted. If someone has enough in their portfolio that adding more wouldn’t float their (sail)boat then art is a reasonable purchase.

I’m a pretty frugal dude when it comes to material possessions but if something sparks joy, even if it isn’t the best investment, I’ll buy it.
To me, the real goal with money was to gain the freedom to do exactly that.

#13 El Castro on 02.04.21 at 1:56 pm

T1 and T2 achieving their dream of Cuba north as we now have to pillage the COVAX vaccines for developing countries…. wow.

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

#10 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 1:47 pm
Garth,

Your points are reasonable…except for the timeframe.

There is no way we’re “normal” by Q3 2021 with the Trudeau Liberals fumbling and bumbling vaccine procurement.

Our vaccine rollout has been A JOKE.
Just compare the figures to the US – Kanuckistan is eating their dust.
———————-
About 2% of Americans are now fully vaxed.
Nothing to write home about.
But, Biden is starting to get things done.
Trump was a disaster

#15 Alex on 02.04.21 at 1:59 pm

#2 Kiril Peev
SARS did not last forever so chill out a bit with your 1 and 2 scenario. As per Stats Canada, there was no excess mortality in 2020, actually more people died in 2019 compared to 2020

#16 The Woosh on 02.04.21 at 2:01 pm

So? Lower affordability and declining valuations for non-urban property mean the universe of buyers for houses in the pastures and distant cities will shrink. Fast. Likely in 2022.

——————————————

More likely 2025. Just wait…you’ll see.

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 2:08 pm

11 dolce
Please, spare me your crocodile tears.
What’s Bella Italia doing for the poor of the world?
Letting them drown while crossing the Mediterranean?
I agree that this does not look good on the humanitarian ledger of Canada, but this is the dog-eat-dog world that Trump helped create.

#18 Jimmy on 02.04.21 at 2:10 pm

… the average family can’t afford the average house as it takes 5 years to save a down payment. This is the worst situation ever. It tops the 1989 real estate apex, which led to the 1992 housing crash.”

Epic crash then and even more of a melt down this time around.

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 2:10 pm

@#7 Out there

“Whoa. Drive from Abby to downtown YVR every day?”

+++

Pfft.
One of my employees commutes from Agassiz to Richmond DAILY 90 miles each way …… and he rents….

I’ve tried ‘splainin’ that the extra money he spends on gas each year ($6000.00 on average ) and the extra miles on his car ( 90,000km on average) and the extra wear and tear on his engine(replaced 2 engines in 7 years , he’s on his 3rd )
All that extra time and money could be spend renting in the city…
Nope. Wont hear it.

Sometime you cant fix stubborn.

#20 Editrix on 02.04.21 at 2:11 pm

Two friends retired in the late 90s and moved to Northumberland Country near Cobourg. They commented ten years later that they wouldn’t be able to buy back into the Toronto market even if they wanted to. You’re probably going to hear a lot of that in the next few years.

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 2:13 pm

Kamloops.
I could retire there.
Lots of recreation.
And bighorn sheep.
Not like the sheeple here.

#22 Dr V on 02.04.21 at 2:15 pm

12 soggy – yes, exactly that

#23 Quintilian on 02.04.21 at 2:16 pm

I would be much more concerned about a price correction caused by the pandemic, as it would be an indication of, somewhat an overvalued market, but not a bubble.

What is happening in the RE market is a confirmation of a bubble, and we seem plenty of irrefutable proof of the madness and the inevitable crash that will follow.

#24 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:16 pm

#12 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:51 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

I agree. I waste good money to keep a very humble boat so that I can enjoy it and spend time with some of BC’s best sailors and learn from them. This all brings me much joy that makes the money worth it to me. An investment in my happiness if you will.

I was saying that, for me, such a purchase is not enviable in response to BillyBob supposing I (or Sara) was envious. The point that BillyBob missed was that feeling a need to brag about an art purchase on the internet and then triple down is notably pathetic. If Sail Away was stoked about art he could have just said “hey guys, I just picked up a really nice piece by so and so for my wife. She’s super happy.” Sail Away also expressed disdain for art when Garth gave us a brief tour of his Lunenburg office. So, there’s that too.

#25 Crusty Crustacean on 02.04.21 at 2:19 pm

I’ve been planning to abandon the big city for small town living when I retired, but thanks to Covid, everyone is doing the same thing! I guess I’ll buy a van and live down by the river, but even the price of vans have gone up…

@Kiril Peev. Do you know any 1% fee realtors in Ottawa?

#26 Guelph Guru on 02.04.21 at 2:22 pm

Another way of looking at the glass:
Dollar devaluates. Everyone’s income shoots up 2x. Suddenly the 1M house sounds cheap.
The first most likely will happen, the second income part sounds unlikely.
So, our std of living will go down, but will house prices correct? At what interest rate and property tax, will people be forced to sell or go hungry. Don’t know. I’m renting so don’t care.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trudeau, still waiting for the stimulus cheque. … . We need to restart the economy right.

#27 Comments! on 02.04.21 at 2:24 pm

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm
#10 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 1:47 pm
Garth,

Your points are reasonable…except for the timeframe.

There is no way we’re “normal” by Q3 2021 with the Trudeau Liberals fumbling and bumbling vaccine procurement.

Our vaccine rollout has been A JOKE.
Just compare the figures to the US – Kanuckistan is eating their dust.
———————-
About 2% of Americans are now fully vaxed.
Nothing to write home about.
But, Biden is starting to get things done.
Trump was a disaster

——————————–

Trump made the vaccines happen only a month before he was done as president a year faster than thought possible. Biden has only been in for 3 weeks and owes the vaccine and it’s mass production to the Trump administration. I’m not at all a Trump fan but what are you talking about?

#28 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:31 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm

————

If Sail Away was stoked about art he could have just said “hey guys, I just picked up a really nice piece by so and so for my wife. She’s super happy.”

————

Hey guys, my wife just picked up a painting she really likes. She’s super happy. It’ll cost us $6,700 in taxes to bring it into BC.

#29 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:33 pm

Way too much from me today, so I’ll end finally with something on topic.

One way for an overall market to become larger is broadening. I’m going to guess that the pump of distant suburban and downright rural RE is just a broadening. COVID enabled the market to grow by jacking small town house prices. In continued low rate world, the next phase will be a re-pump of urban RE. Money is free. People will take it and stick it places and the RE mechanism is as streamlined as it gets for doing so. Equities as well. Back up the truck.

Higher rates will impact both.

An analogy of QE that comes to mind is a pneumothorax — AKA punctured lung. QE is the breath being drawn in and exhaled out, but instead of fuelling the body, in a pneumothorax the air and waste gas is being pushed into the interpleural space where it does no good. In fact, eventually it will crush the lung leading to ischemia. In this analogy, the interpleural space is the group of non-productive asstes that QE dollars are diverted to leading to asset inflation. The intended purpose of QE is to fuel growth throughout the economy, but stagnant M2 shows that the $$ is just going to crushing the lung.

First aid for pneumothorax is taping the wound preferably using a valved device. Stop the QE. Ongoing treatment involved burping the interpleural space which would be akin to market corrections/contractions. Definitive care is surgery — i.e. making tough policy decisions.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 2:36 pm

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 2:10 pm
@#7 Out there

“Whoa. Drive from Abby to downtown YVR every day?”

+++

Pfft.
One of my employees commutes from Agassiz to Richmond DAILY 90 miles each way …… and he rents….
——————
Sounds like a prisoner who’s out on a day pass.
Should vet your employees better.

#31 Dolce Vita on 02.04.21 at 2:39 pm

Why PM Trudeau wants to steal vax from the World’s poor – Jab Flatline:

https://i.imgur.com/W7IjeS0.png

Ya, 3M people jabbed behind schedule for MYTHIC”All vax’d by Sept end” and that’s for 32M Cdns 15 yrs or older let alone all 38M of the Beavers.

Mucho catch up football needed.

And then there’s “Ici Radio Москва” (a.k.a., CBC) that thinks:

“EU says it has authorized vaccine delivery to Canada”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eu-vaccine-export-controls-covid-variants-1.5897991?cmp=rss

Whereupon I reminded them they are remiss with the TRUTH. For example, Italia as of yesterday upset it was only getting 4M Pfizer & Moderna doses in February:

“Vaccines, only 4 million Pfizer and Moderna doses in February. ”
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/vaccini-solo-4-milioni-dosi-pfizer-e-moderna-febbraio-docenti-e-under55-astrazeneca-ADPB7hGB

I suggested to the deep thinkers at CBC they should try some Grade 3 Math, based on population:

= 38/60 x 4M
= 2.53M doses Canada should be getting in Feb.

In Feb Canada Pfizer, Moderna doses = 1.06M, NOT EVEN HALF of bitchy Italia’s allotment (per CTV and Global, heaven forbid Gov Canada would let Cdns know about that).

And, Canada is not in the EU Exemption list.

The EU is serving itself first, then Canada.

—————————–

Why Gov Canada is turning the Good People of Canada into ROGUE NATION STATUS on the World Stage – theft of life give doses from Covax meant for the World’s poor.

Even for “Yup, just another Covid-19 day on Planet Earth” – today Gov Canada takes the cake in 2021.

#32 SimplyPut7 on 02.04.21 at 2:43 pm

No vaccines mean, work from home at the family cottage lives on.

We can worry about driving in late Spring 2022.

#33 some guy on 02.04.21 at 2:47 pm

The commute times will be absurdly high with everyone scared to take transit and driving from their new home in the burbs.

Much like the buy Gamestop meme, there is a buy real-estate for guaranteed money meme in Canada. Just the buy real-estate meme is moving much slower.

#34 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:50 pm

#29 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:33 pm

Re: pneumothorax metaphor

———–

Sucking chest wound:

Military first aid: open dressing and use plastic wrap to cover the wound, bind tightly and provide pressure directly to the dressing to prevent air leakage. If first aid is not available, roll the victim onto their wounded side and have them maintain pressure on the dressing.

After that, it’s up to the pros. If the pros are clueless then death is almost certain to ensue.

What level of fiscal competence can we expect from our govt?

#35 Brian Ripley on 02.04.21 at 2:57 pm

My Calgary Housing chart with JAN 2021 data is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Strata unit prices continue their chronic downtrend since 2014 but Detached house prices remain in demand with Alberta employment earnings remaining 8% above the national average and 13% above Quebec (no typo): http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Also published is my January TSX indices chart (Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD):
http://www.chpc.biz/tsx-indexes.html

Recent strength in USD and WTI prices have capped the gold run for awhile, but the TSX energy sector has been in a major downtrend with lower highs and lows since the crash of 2008 and is trading at prices from 20 years ago.

Meanwhile the mutant Covid19 cases are growing in Canada because we have not locked down travel and I doubt if 3Q 2021 will see international travel back up to pre-covid19 times.

This is a global pandemic and our refusal to recognize this is at our own peril.

#36 mike from mtl on 02.04.21 at 2:58 pm

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

About 2% of Americans are now fully vaxed.
Nothing to write home about.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That’s a LOT of people, and per the proper two dose schedule. With the delays we’re facing the currently once vaxed stats in Canada are very misleading. If the delays continue we might as well have dumped the vials into the river and start all over.

Obviously places like the US don’t have the problems we do since they create and manufacture there. EU is doing not too bad since it’s made within the EU, they’re playing games. Does not matter even if Canada pre-ordered a billion doses, we’re not getting them any faster.

NZ and South Korea for example are also on the COVAX programme so to be fair.

Leadership question to why did we approve the two most expensive, new-tech (mRNA), hard to manufacture, logistical pain-in-the-ass Vaccines? There’s other ones that use more classic tech that is sooo much more manageable (same as Flu campaign), easy to manufacture volumes, and cheaper. Okay perhaps with a bit less efficacy, right but who cares? billions are wanting something NOW 70-80% is better than 0%.

#37 Captain Uppa on 02.04.21 at 2:59 pm

A couple things:

1) Downtown sucks and smells like urine.

2) The Bank of England has said to be preparing everyone for negative rates. Yet you say we are going to get a quick upshot in rates.

What makes us so different than England for you to be so sure?

#38 Dolce Vita on 02.04.21 at 3:00 pm

#17 Ponzius Pilatus

EU increases its contribution to COVAX to €500 million to secure COVID-19 vaccines for low and middle-income countries (or Covax and recall, Italia is in the EU, 3rd largest EU contributor at €15B/yr):

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2075

And that is not counting the €450M invested in Pfizer by the EU so Pfizer can turnaround and donate 40M doses, essentially free to Covax.

“this is the dog-eat-dog world…Trump”

NON SEQUITUR in logic: blaming Righty Trump for actions by Lefty PM Trudeau.

Crocodile tears huh.

You need to give your illogical head on this issue a good shake and develop a conscience instead.

And, inform yourself better.

#39 Squire on 02.04.21 at 3:16 pm

Trending now…
Workplaces
https://www.stikeman.com/en-ca/kh/canadian-employment-labour-pension-law/vaccination-requirements-and-the-canadian-workplace-anticipating-the-next-big-question

and special freedoms for the vaccinated ? maybe not
https://www.dw.com/en/covid-no-special-freedoms-for-the-vaccinated-in-germany/a-56454942

Interesting times

#40 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 3:18 pm

Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm

My wife just bought a painting… looks like it’ll be $6,700 in Canadian taxes to ship home to BC.

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

————-

Robert Wyland

—————–

Aren’t Robert Wyland “whale paintings” what tourists buy after they visited Hawaii for the first time?

You should try to get your money back Lol.

#41 Faron on 02.04.21 at 3:25 pm

#34 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:50 pm

#29 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:33 pm

Re: pneumothorax metaphor

———–

Sucking chest wound:

Military first aid: open dressing and use plastic wrap to cover the wound, bind tightly and provide pressure directly to the dressing to prevent air leakage.

Needs clarification in case a blog dog unwittingly rams into a stick or something. At risk of this developing into a pissing match: If you seal the pneumo completely, the interpleural will inflate from normal breathing and still crush the lung. Guessing the military would issue vented dressings making your procedure correct in that you can set and forget the dressing. Most people won’t have a vented dressing.

#42 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 3:26 pm

#27 Comments! on 02.04.21 at 2:24 pm
#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm
#10 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 1:47 pm

Trump made the vaccines happen only a month before he was done as president a year faster than thought possible.

*******************
Did he? really though?

“TRUMP: “As a result of Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer announced on Monday that its China virus vaccine was more than 90% effective. …Pfizer said it wasn’t part of Warp Speed, but that turned out to be an unfortunate misrepresentation.”

THE FACTS: Not so much. Pfizer notably did not accept government money to develop, test or expand manufacturing capacity under Trump’s Operation Warp Speed initiative to quickly find a vaccine and treatments for the disease sweeping the country.

In fact, Pfizer partnered with the vaccine’s original developer, Germany’s BioNTech, in March and the following month announced the first human study in Germany. The White House announced Operation Warp Speed in May.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-vaccine-fact-check-20201113-pkzbkcfd5bcalpgkvbavqfi5iq-story.html

#43 Dolce Vita on 02.04.21 at 3:29 pm

#35 Brian Ripley

Agree with your date and state of affairs assessment vis-à-vis variants in Canada.

The variant that truly scares me is the new UK mutant (E484K) as it is able to diminish, EVADE immune system responses…worse than the current UK N501Y and South African variants.

Hope the UK contains E484K and it does not get out to the rest of the World. Mercifully, they have some of the best genomic testing on Planet Earth and will find it fast and with luck, contain it.

If not, I believe 3rd Qtr 2021 travel, normalcy, will be a pipe dream.

Even the Americans are worried about it (late to the table about mutations):

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index.html

Heck, even Covid exemplary NZ worries about E484K:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-variant-mutates-again-and-may-be-able-to-evade-vaccines-and-immune-system/JW32475LZ7UURGN7TE5DV2GT2Q/

#44 Mean Gene on 02.04.21 at 3:38 pm

The new normal of collecting your big city wage from the country (boondocks) maybe short lived, lol, talk about wishful thinking.

#45 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 3:38 pm

#40 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 3:18 pm
Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm

My wife just bought a painting… looks like it’ll be $6,700 in Canadian taxes to ship home to BC.

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———

Robert Wyland

———

Aren’t Robert Wyland “whale paintings” what tourists buy after they visited Hawaii for the first time?

You should try to get your money back Lol.

———

Never conflate popular and prolific with poor quality. Ever hear of Stephen King? Many tourists buy Wyland postcards or prints and he’s done a number of murals.

Admittedly, he is a shameless self-promoter with a net worth hovering around $100M.

There was also that other shameless self-promoting artist who created around 50,000 works. His name escapes me… Pablo someone…

#46 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 3:46 pm

#41 Faron on 02.04.21 at 3:25 pm
#34 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:50 pm
#29 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:33 pm

Re: pneumothorax metaphor

———

Sucking chest wound:

Military first aid: open dressing and use plastic wrap to cover the wound, bind tightly and provide pressure directly to the dressing to prevent air leakage.

———

Needs clarification in case a blog dog unwittingly rams into a stick or something. At risk of this developing into a pissing match: If you seal the pneumo completely, the interpleural will inflate from normal breathing and still crush the lung. Guessing the military would issue vented dressings making your procedure correct in that you can set and forget the dressing. Most people won’t have a vented dressing.

———

Sorry, that’s all I have. It’s probably best to avoid puncturing a lung if I’m the support crew…

#47 alexinvestor on 02.04.21 at 3:49 pm

Interest rates will only go up if the inflation picks up. One question you have to ask … is the BOC’s inflation calculation a true measure of inflation ? Maybe, maybe not. They only include mortgage interest in their CPI basket. That’s a very nice trick.

Also, a higher interest rate, say 7% will bankrupt businesses and households everywhere (not just Canada). It’s very unlikely our socialist government will ever allow this to happen. Probably some kind of interest rate suppression is coming.

#48 IHCTD9 on 02.04.21 at 3:53 pm

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 2:10 pm
@#7 Out there

“Whoa. Drive from Abby to downtown YVR every day?”

+++

Pfft.
One of my employees commutes from Agassiz to Richmond DAILY 90 miles each way …… and he rents….

I’ve tried ‘splainin’ that the extra money he spends on gas each year ($6000.00 on average ) and the extra miles on his car ( 90,000km on average) and the extra wear and tear on his engine(replaced 2 engines in 7 years , he’s on his 3rd )
All that extra time and money could be spend renting in the city…
Nope. Wont hear it.

Sometime you cant fix stubborn.
___

I worked with a dude who drove from the gta to here in the sticks for a job – 162 km each way.

He rented too. We asked the dude wtf he was doing – why not just rent here in town? The answer? His wife did not speak English, and she basically didn’t want to live out here with us honkeys.

Heh, I guess she wore the pants in that relationship. Buddy lasted about a year before finally deciding what he was doing was not a long term viable plan.

#49 Linda on 02.04.21 at 3:58 pm

A lot is riding on the end to the pandemic. However, the slimy little pathogen may have other ideas. Variants have already been identified, some of which appear to have already altered enough to make the first round of vaccine defense a little less effective.

I do think downtowns will become vibrant again, but seems to me that there might be some long lasting changes as to how we do things going forward. I get that people are wary of taking public transit, but seems to me that far flung commuters would be happy to ride a train if service was available, reliable & reasonably priced. People might be willing to pay for a service that guarantees a seat instead of the crowd them in like cattle going off to the slaughterhouse style of public transit. That by itself more than accounts for the lack of ridership. We are always going on about how ‘X’ Canadian city is ‘world class’. Well, I’ve been lucky enough to travel in Europe & all I can say is, when it comes to public transit we are not ‘world class’. Unless you are talking third world.

#50 Howard on 02.04.21 at 4:03 pm

#1 Angus Highlend on 02.04.21 at 1:23 pm
Interesting dynamics on housing around the GTA.

A week ago a small detached in a serene university town just west of TO listed for $700k sells in a couple of days for about $950k with many offers. Don’t even try if you have a condition, especially having the place inspected or even asking if the basement apartment is actually legal. It’s under a $1M what could go wrong?

—————————–

LOL. Why bother anymore?

I left Canada long ago so for me whether RE soars or tanks makes no difference, but I do have many friends and family stuck there so I’m not completely indifferent.

I do think emigration is the only option for many people. What I’ve realized is that even if RE tanks and average salaries can again purchase reasonable homes, at the end of the day you’re still stuck in Canada (barrel-bottom of the developed world) and hard work is penalized through crushing income taxation. Young Canadians should plan their exit strategy before it’s too late. Much harder to emigrate past 35 years of age.

#51 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 4:04 pm

Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 3:38 pm
#40 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 3:18 pm
Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm

Never conflate popular and prolific with poor quality. Ever hear of Stephen King? Many tourists buy Wyland postcards or prints and he’s done a number of murals.

Admittedly, he is a shameless self-promoter with a net worth hovering around $100M.

There was also that other shameless self-promoting artist who created around 50,000 works. His name escapes me… Pablo someone…

———-

Hawaiian tourists don’t buy Pablo they buy Robert Wyland.

Robert Wyland is worth $100M because he’s sold to lots and lots of Hawaiian tourists. Oh, and to you as well.

From now to eternity whoever comes to your house will see your painting and say, “hey that reminds me of my trip to Hawaii.”

#52 NewWest on 02.04.21 at 4:07 pm

I’ve given up even trying to understand house prices in the Fraser Valley.

My sister got their place in Maple Ridge appraised so they could renew their mortgage. Great view, but a small lot on the side of a mountain, no lane, bears, 18 some-odd year old house not very well built, one of those ones with an enormous circular staircase when you come into the “foyer” that goes up to three tiny bedrooms. No transit, and you have to drive everywhere. An hour drive to New Westminster on a Sunday, if there aren’t any accidents on the highway. They bought for ~600k six years ago. House appraised in December at $1.45 million.

I used to tell people that house prices had to drop, that they were never going to be going for a billion dollars. I am going to just stop even saying anything now. At this rate, who knows? I sure as hell couldn’t afford to be paying 4 – 5k a month for a mortgage, but apparently there are plenty of people out there who can.

#53 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 4:09 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-20-world-vaccine-doses-administered-1.5891465

“Canada now ranks 20th globally, well behind the US, UK, but also middle-income countries like Poland and Serbia. Canada’s been outpaced by Bahrain, Denmark, Germany, Israel, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and the United Arab Emirates…” in Covid vaxes.

The Trudeau Liberals have fumbled Covid…we’re still a ways from “normal”.

#54 wallflower on 02.04.21 at 4:15 pm

Retired. No commute.
Cannot wait much longer for the WFHs to get back.
And, I bet alot of their employers are looking forward to it as well. I am soooooooooooooooo tired of the epic bad service on calls. Some of these situations are turning into epic cases of email trails and multiple employee involvement for the simplest of tasks.
I read where a USA large bank CEO said this WFH has massively affected their top line numbers, way down … it is not efficacious.
btw, I spent the final 20 years of my working life as WFH. Loved it. I was a freelancer and had all the right tech in place. But, it’s not working for these larger companies.

#55 Howard on 02.04.21 at 4:17 pm

#8 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.04.21 at 1:43 pm
I have been WFH for 11 months and today I was selected to do a survey and conduct an interview with HR regarding the possibility of making it permanent or at least making it a hybrid remote/office work scenario post-Covid.

——————————–

I work for an old stodgy company, in an old stodgy industry, in an old stodgy (but glorious) country.

We are majority WFH until September. At that time, pandemic permitting, it will transition to 1-2 days in office and the rest of the week from home. This will be permanent. Most of the senior IT managers in particular have barely set foot in the office in nearly a year now. Completely normalized.

If my company, very resistant to change, is making it permanent, good luck to the few paleos that return to 100% office. The only people they’ll attract are the ones who spent junior high sniffing glue.

#56 Habitt on 02.04.21 at 4:20 pm

That may well be WFH crushed. I doubt it. For every opinion saying it is there’s another saying not so fast. So we will see. BTW you people working from home consider the frozen wasteland tundra here on Saskatchewan. For 300k you can get an awesome place on a beautiful lake here. The quality of life here is as good likely better than Lunenberg lol. Fact is it depends on how you define quality. If you like a slower pace and great people it’s awesome here. Please don’t tell anyone it’s a secret lol. Born and raised in Ontario been to Nova Scotia many times. This place has it all with great services to boot.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 4:23 pm

@#45 Sail Away
Whats the tax on foreign art?
25% ?
40 % ?

God forbid high taxes on foreign art force us to buy only Canadian.
“authentic” Mittens and Toques wear a little thin.
Mind you, Kanye is divorcing Kim and has packed up 500 pairs of his collectable sneakers…….. apparently she gets the Bentley, the mansions, etc .
He gets stinky sneakers and away from the Kardashian clan….
Win!

#58 jess on 02.04.21 at 4:32 pm

the sap as a transitive verb To drain
Voting technology company Smartmatic files $2.7 billion lawsuit against Fox News, Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell over ‘disinformation campaign’

By Oliver Darcy, CNN Business
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/media/smartmatic-fox-news-giuliani-powell-lawsuit/index.html

#59 jess on 02.04.21 at 4:39 pm

TÜBINGEN, Germany / BOSTON – March 15, 2020

CureVac AG, a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company pioneering mRNA-based drugs for vaccines and therapeutics, confirmed today that internal efforts are focused on the development of a coronavirus vaccine with the goal to reach, help and to protect people and patients worldwide.

===============

That didn’t go well
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

#60 Sheesh on 02.04.21 at 4:41 pm

#45 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 3:38 pm
#40 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 3:18 pm
Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 p
…….
Never conflate popular and prolific with poor quality. Ever hear of Stephen King?

…..
There’s quality and then there’s Quality. Ever read Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance?

I hadn’t heard of Wyland before (somehow), but judging by his work, it appears he caters to people who like pretty pictures, but don’t know a whole lot about art. Kinda like Bob Ross.

#61 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 4:53 pm

#51 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 4:04 pm

Robert Wyland is worth $100M because he’s sold to lots and lots of Hawaiian tourists. Oh, and to you as well.

From now to eternity whoever comes to your house will see your painting and say, “hey that reminds me of my trip to Hawaii.”

———-

Correct

#62 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 4:58 pm

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 4:23 pm
@#45 Sail Away

Whats the tax on foreign art?
25% ?
40 % ?

————

Basically 12% with reduction for personal allowance and credit for tax paid at source. Still highway robbery.

#63 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 5:02 pm

#51 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 4:04 pm
Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 3:38 pm
#40 Life is Good on 02.04.21 at 3:18 pm
Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm
***************
From now to eternity whoever comes to your house will see your painting and say, “hey that reminds me of my trip to Hawaii.”
*********
1. Do you buy art to impress others?
2. Every time I see any souvenir it reminds me of the place I was when I got it. Both literally and where I was “in my life”
Is art not supposed to do that? Am I doing art wrong?

#64 S.Bby on 02.04.21 at 5:03 pm

My employer says they will not force employees to get vaccinated. I got it in writing.

Nobody can force you to be vaxed. But they don’t need to keep employing you, either. In any case, it doesn’t matter since you have a moral, ethical and social responsibility to get the shot. – Garth

#65 Kat on 02.04.21 at 5:04 pm

I know many people that drive from Abbotsford to Vancouver daily. It is an hour or so drive. Most moved out there five years ago before it went really crazy to be able to afford a home. Nothing new there sorry.

#66 DON on 02.04.21 at 5:08 pm

#37 Captain Uppa on 02.04.21 at 2:59 pm
A couple things:

1) Downtown sucks and smells like urine.

2) The Bank of England has said to be preparing everyone for negative rates. Yet you say we are going to get a quick upshot in rates.

********************
Read the two links I posted on yesterday’s blog…they echo what Garth has been saying…

You seem to be putting words in Garth’s mouth…why?

Remember most people do not see the signs until the shit hits the fan.

#67 NorthOf49 on 02.04.21 at 5:12 pm

#13 El Castro on 02.04.21 at 1:56 pm

T1 and T2 achieving their dream of Cuba north as we now have to pillage the COVAX vaccines for developing countries…. wow.

————————————————-
We only wish we could be as far ahead as Cuba. Don’t kid yourself, Cuba develops and distributes millions of doses of vaccines worldwide every year. They currently have four Covid vaccine versions in clinical trials currently. They’re issue is being able to ramp up production to supply other countries. With the current US embargo in place, it’s not possible when competing with the giant global pharmaceuticals. Their entire population will be vaccinated before we even get a minority vaccinated.

https://www.finlay.edu.cu/en/

Been thinking about how I could combine a vacation with a vaccination and not have to return home to quarantine. Hmm?

#68 DON on 02.04.21 at 5:14 pm

#65 Kat on 02.04.21 at 5:04 pm
I know many people that drive from Abbotsford to Vancouver daily. It is an hour or so drive. Most moved out there five years ago before it went really crazy to be able to afford a home. Nothing new there sorry.

*************

Just an hour or so……you need to add more digits to the so…..to account for rush hour traffic. Or you could just downplay everything if that helps you sleep at night.

An hour or so….LMAO

#69 JacqueShellacque on 02.04.21 at 5:18 pm

Stimulus changes the calculus of “investing” and makes what would othewise look unprofitable seem like it makes sense. Once the stimulus is gone and the misallocation of funds becomes apparent, the money starts to leave and those who’ve made the unfortunate choice to malinvest are forced to liquidate, causing a crash. The good ol’ Austrian Business Cycle Theory, in 2 sentences.

#70 Ustabe on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm

#28 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:31 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
————
If Sail Away was stoked about art he could have just said “hey guys, I just picked up a really nice piece by so and so for my wife. She’s super happy.”
————
Hey guys, my wife just picked up a painting she really likes. She’s super happy. It’ll cost us $6,700 in taxes to bring it into BC.

I’m sure I’m not the only one, other than Sail, that has purchased art or other relatively expensive things while traveling. I am puzzled by the tax figure tho…what usually happened with us is some weeks after arrival home DHL shows up, you sign the hand held and your piece(s) are off loaded. I’m in BC and have never had fees or taxes in addition to the price paid for the piece, brokerage and shipping in the country of origin. Not once.

#71 Penny Henny on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm

#50 Howard on 02.04.21 at 4:03 pm

I left Canada long ago so for me whether RE soars or tanks makes no difference, but I do have many friends and family stuck there so I’m not completely indifferent.
/////////////

where do you live now Howard?

#72 Sheesh on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm

63 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 5:02 pm
2. Every time I see any souvenir it reminds me of the place I was when I got it. Both literally and where I was “in my life”
Is art not supposed to do that? Am I doing art wrong?
……
Only if you’re thinking it’s a good investment. A quick google of the auctions of Wyland’s work show they don’t hold their value. Not sure that him kicking the bucket would change that.

#73 Stone on 02.04.21 at 5:21 pm

I can’t compete with the stupidity of all these highly intelligent, highly educated (ahem, I mean schooled) sophisticates throwing themselves on the landmine which is residential real estate. I’m still happy with my yummy returns on my balanced and diversified investment portfolio. Currently 5.21% YTD. Rub tummy.

By the way, GME closed at $53.50 today. I wonder if we’ll ever know how many got fleeced and deballed.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 5:22 pm

#42 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 3:26 pm
#27 Comments! on 02.04.21 at 2:24 pm
#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm
#10 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 1:47 pm

Trump made the vaccines happen only a month before he was done as president a year faster than thought possible.
*******************
Did he? really though?

“TRUMP: “As a result of Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer announced on Monday that its China virus vaccine was more than 90% effective. …Pfizer said it wasn’t part of Warp Speed, but that turned out to be an unfortunate misrepresentation.”

THE FACTS: Not so much. Pfizer notably did not accept government money to develop, test or expand manufacturing capacity under Trump’s Operation Warp Speed initiative to quickly find a vaccine and treatments for the disease sweeping the country.

In fact, Pfizer partnered with the vaccine’s original developer, Germany’s BioNTech, in March and the following month announced the first human study in Germany. The White House announced Operation Warp Speed in May.”
————–
Exactly, BionTech is a German success story, made possible by a two Turkish immigrant scientists.
The kind of immigrants that Trump banned.

#75 El Castro on 02.04.21 at 5:39 pm

#67 NorthOf49 on 02.04.21 at 5:12 pm

#13 El Castro on 02.04.21 at 1:56 pm

T1 and T2 achieving their dream of Cuba north as we now have to pillage the COVAX vaccines for developing countries…. wow.

————————————————-
We only wish we could be as far ahead as Cuba. Don’t kid yourself, Cuba develops and distributes millions of doses of vaccines worldwide every year. They currently have four Covid vaccine versions in clinical trials currently. They’re issue is being able to ramp up production to supply other countries. With the current US embargo in place, it’s not possible when competing with the giant global pharmaceuticals. Their entire population will be vaccinated before we even get a minority vaccinated.

https://www.finlay.edu.cu/en/

Been thinking about how I could combine a vacation with a vaccination and not have to return home to quarantine. Hmm?

That may be our only hope!…. Viva la revolución!

#76 S.Bby on 02.04.21 at 5:39 pm

‘Stop f—ing selling!!!’ WallStreetBets Redditors go ballistic over GameStop’s sinking share price

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/investing/gamestop-wallstreetbets-reddit/index.html

It looks like the bloom is off that rose …

#77 Linda on 02.04.21 at 5:41 pm

About the anti-vax worker wannabes, those who trumpet that their employers won’t ‘force’ them to be vaccinated. I realize we aren’t the USA, where lawsuits proliferate, but seems to me that if my employer ‘allowed’ someone to forego vaccination & as a result they infected people that employer would be looking at a lawsuit. Especially if the infected died of the virus. Maybe the employer could slide out from under by informing employees that not everyone they work with is vaccinated & could be a source. That however would put those who didn’t vaccinate in the crosshairs. Given that there are workplace policies asking that people not wear perfume due to some coworkers having sensitivities to strong odors, how likely is it that coworkers would be willing to be exposed to a potentially fatal infectious disease? Or have their loved ones exposed to it? Don’t see that going over with health & safety…..

#78 jess on 02.04.21 at 5:41 pm

leita james cometh

SEC Charges Investment Adviser and Others With Defrauding Over 17,000 Retail Investors

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2021-24

Attorney General James Sues Private Equity Fund Manager for Ponzi-Like Investment Scheme that Defrauded Investors Out of More Than $700 Million

Defendants Diverted Investor Monies to Pay Off Other Investors,
Subsidize Luxury Travel and Purchase Ferrari

New York Investors Alone Invested More Than $150 Million

Attorney General James Sues Private Equity Fund Manager for Ponzi-Like Investment Scheme that Defrauded Investors Out of More Than $700 Million

Defendants Diverted Investor Monies to Pay Off Other Investors,
Subsidize Luxury Travel and Purchase Ferrari

New York Investors Alone Invested More Than $150 Million

NEW YORK – New York Attorney General Letitia James today filed a lawsuit against a New York private equity fund manager and five co-defendants for defrauding investors across the country out of more than $700 million through a Ponzi-like scheme that offered to pay investors generous monthly distributions they could never deliver.

https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2021/attorney-general-james-sues-private-equity-fund-manager-ponzi-investment-scheme

Washington D.C., Feb. 4, 2021 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged three individuals and their affiliated entities with running a Ponzi-like scheme that raised over $1.7 billion from securities issued by a New York-based asset management firm and registered investment adviser, GPB Capital. The SEC also charged GPB Capital with violating the whistleblower protection laws.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that David Gentile, the owner and CEO of GPB Capital, and Jeffry Schneider, the owner of GPB Capital’s placement agent Ascendant Capital, lied to investors about the source of money used to make an 8% annualized distribution payment to investors. According to the complaint, these defendants along with Ascendant Alternative Strategies, which marketed GPB Capital’s investments, told investors that the distribution payments were paid exclusively with monies generated by GPB Capital’s portfolio companies. As alleged, GPB Capital actually used investor money to pay portions of the annualized 8% distribution payments. GPB Capital and Gentile with assistance from Jeffrey Lash, a former managing partner at GPB Capital, also allegedly manipulated the financial statements of certain limited partnership funds managed by GPB Capital to perpetuate the deception by giving the false appearance that the funds’ income was closer to generating sufficient income to cover the distribution payments than it actually was.

The SEC’s complaint further alleges that GPB Capital and Ascendant Capital made misrepresentations to investors about millions of dollars in fees and other compensation received by Gentile and Schneider. As alleged, the fraudulent scheme continued for more than four years in part because GPB Capital kept investors in the dark about the limited partnership funds’ true financial condition, failing to deliver audited financial statements and register two of its funds with the SEC. GPB Capital allegedly violated the whistleblower provisions of the securities laws by including language in termination and separation agreements that impeded individuals from coming forward to the SEC, and by retaliating against a known whistleblower.

#79 ogdoad on 02.04.21 at 5:42 pm

I love your blog, Garth. It has educated and entertained for years although I must say FOMO is rampant. Not just with housing. FOMO has worked its way into the fabric of our being. Just like our nature to compete. It is not only in NA but in Europe and beyond. Peppered daily with advertisements on how we should/could make our lives better by drinking a certain type of beer (worked on me) then happily, discretely (or not) showing that to others. Psychology wins. Our lust for housing is just a by-product. Not-going-away! The prospect of higher rates may slow the inevitable but our nature remains the same. If I can’t buy a house then I will buy something else. To feel equal and adequate to my peers. My father also purchased a roof and four walls that came along with a 12% mortgage, if my booze weakened memory serves. Why? His salary wasn’t great, either. Social proof, FOMO and human nature will trump – always….this is what we do.

That being said, how many decades does it take to slowly adjust our culture? Beats me.

#80 KAC on 02.04.21 at 5:43 pm

42 Soggyshorts:

More “facts”, direct from Pfizer’s Facebook page.

Pfizer
July 22, 2020 ·
After receiving Fast Track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, we are pleased to announce an agreement with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, in collaboration with Operation #WarpSpeed, for up to 600M doses of our #COVID19 vaccine candidate currently in development with BioNTech.

If the safety and efficacy study is successful and the vaccine receives regulatory approval, we expect to deliver up to 100M doses by the end of 2020 and potentially more than 1.3B doses globally by the end of 2021.

For more information, read the release: https://on.pfizer.com/30HL8Mi

#81 Penny Henny on 02.04.21 at 5:44 pm

#72 Sheesh on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm
63 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 5:02 pm
2. Every time I see any souvenir it reminds me of the place I was when I got it. Both literally and where I was “in my life”
Is art not supposed to do that? Am I doing art wrong?
……
Only if you’re thinking it’s a good investment. A quick google of the auctions of Wyland’s work show they don’t hold their value. Not sure that him kicking the bucket would change that.

/////////////////

What if he dies of the Covid. The Hawaiian variation.

#82 Darryl on 02.04.21 at 5:44 pm

1, The vaccine won’t be available for most working people until early to mid-2022 at the earliest.

2, It will be 1-2 years working in this environment and investments have been made in technology. Many employers will save by eliminating the office and employees will save as well. Unless everyone goes back, employees will leave and prefer options that allow work from home.

3, We have lost the incentive to work and social assistance won’t end soon. Some will quit instead of going back, especially those on the lower wage scale.

4, Many of the restaurants and bars will be gone by the time we reopen and have the whole population vaccinated. Theatres, concerts and stadiums may be years away.

5, It is unclear if the vaccines will work and eliminate social distancing. They are still saying masks will be required and some form of social distancing.

6, Once the virus is gone it will be followed by an economic recession or depression. The recovery is already heavily K shaped. While some have money to spend, others will be trapped in debt with no retirement savings or hope for the future. Many low income jobs will be replaced with automation. The pandemic has changed consumer preferences and society norms.

7, In theory while big cities will lose, economic opportunity is now possible for the North and rural communities. Even if there is a physical office, we are seeing in the USA that companies are locating away from New York and California and into lower tax and lower cost jurisdictions like Texas and Nevada. There is no reason to pay Toronto/Vancouver/Montreal prices
anymore.

8, There really is no advantage to working in an office 9-5

9, Second, third, fourth and fifth waves will keep the fear going indefinitely.

10, The corporate job in the downtown core has been disappearing for a long time. People will have to innovate and be entrepreneurial as these jobs have been in decline for awhile and COVID has only sped that up.

#83 Ed on 02.04.21 at 5:49 pm

The last art I bought was a carved salmon from a random native from some random island in BC.

Paid $20, every time I look at it now I smile…for me it has become priceless.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 5:52 pm

@#71 Penny
“where do you live now Howard?”
+++

Another dimension.

#85 Billennial on 02.04.21 at 5:53 pm

Is there a discord server for fellow Garth Turner followers?
If not, shall we set up one up?
It would be good to chat with like-minded folks

#86 jess on 02.04.21 at 5:54 pm

snowbirds

“The rate of growth here in Florida and Southern California looks a lot like the type of growth that we have seen previously in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 became the predominant variant strain pretty quickly,” Lu said.

#87 Dave on 02.04.21 at 5:56 pm

Yet Vancouver continues to go up, regardless of what happens, except for a few minor corrections. I knew there was a reason we needed another 400, 000 people to come here.

#88 KAC on 02.04.21 at 5:58 pm

#49 Linda

“People might be willing to pay for a service that guarantees a seat instead of the crowd them in like cattle going off to the slaughterhouse style of public transit. That by itself more than accounts for the lack of ridership.”

****************

So the lack of ridership is because it’s too crowded?

Sorry, I don’t think I follow the logic.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 6:01 pm

@ IHCTD9
“Buddy lasted about a year before finally deciding what he was doing was not a long term viable plan.”

+++

My employee has been doing it for 7 years……
He’s driven the guts out of 3 car engines and will make the last payment on the car in April….
I offered him my little Mazda Protege about 6 years years back for 2k.
Told him to return the lease to own car and take mine.

Sweet ride. Low kms ,Perfectly maintained, never farted in, etc etc etc.

He didnt have 2k and couldnt borrow 2k…his credit was/is that crappy…

So…he was stuck making 450/month payments for 7 years plus replaced 2 engines…..

And the rich get richer.

#90 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 6:03 pm

#70 Ustabe on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm
#28 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 2:31 pm
#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm

Hey guys, my wife just picked up a painting she really likes. She’s super happy. It’ll cost us $6,700 in taxes to bring it into BC.

———-

I am puzzled by the tax figure tho…what usually happened with us is some weeks after arrival home DHL shows up, you sign the hand held and your piece(s) are off loaded. I’m in BC and have never had fees or taxes in addition to the price paid for the piece, brokerage and shipping in the country of origin. Not once.

———–

Correct- the taxes owing are paid to the shipper, at the destination, prior to them releasing the piece.

The place you buy it from couldn’t charge these- they have no agreement with govt in your place of residence.

#91 binky barnes on 02.04.21 at 6:09 pm

Once the big man sinks his teeth into this issue it will be solved to people’s liking. Guaranteed! He is like the mailman, nothing can stop him. Nothing.

BB

#92 Long-Time Lurker on 02.04.21 at 6:09 pm

Zoolander 3. Script update.

Our trio of “heroes” run down the Golden Bribe Road quickly outpacing the shorter-legged Munchkins. Going around a forested bend, the trio see a big field of tall wheat guarded by a lonely scarecrow.

Tin Man “Shawn Jerry”: “Quick! Hide in there before they see us!”

The trio dash into the wheat field and fall down — hiding themselves in the tall wheat.

The mob of angry Munchkins run past them yelling.

Cowardly Lion “Rich O’Donnell”: “They’re gone. Let’s go.”

Tin Man “Shawn Jerry”: “No, wait. They’ll head on back for lunch when they give up searching for us.”

Sure enough a while later they hear the Swamp Mud Munchkins walking back cussing amongst themselves. When they no longer can hear them, the trio stand up. The Tin Man and Cowardly Lion look at PM Zoolander.

#93 Reader on 02.04.21 at 6:19 pm

Garth, is there any data to back up the claim that worker productivity crashed when we switched over to WFH? My personal experience is that we are working even longer hours because we are always connected to work. There is no more travelling time, which all that time is going towards working hours. And we are also more likely to log in during off hours because we feel obligated to be more flexible with the WFH benefit.

#94 Niagara Region on 02.04.21 at 6:26 pm

Good luck to anyone who tries to drive to downtown Toronto from the Niagara Region. One decade ago, the morning commute was about 75-90 minutes. Shortly before the pandemic hit, the morning commute was 2-3 hours. The recent rapid growth of housing in the Niagara region has produced a very clogged QEW.

#95 broader mind on 02.04.21 at 6:27 pm

Be careful when the saps flow. Something very funny in that line. I picture lemmings in bidding wars for homes. Spring real estate market. Money pouring out of banks. Great group of words sir Garth.

#96 Naive is right, on 02.04.21 at 6:30 pm

and also frightened. I say if your dumb enough to pay extreme prices in extreme circumstances you deserve to get your ass handed to you when its over. Rising rates, rising inflation and the end of the pandemic will put the brakes on the burbs and FOMO in general. Maybe not as fast as Gamestop but bring it on.

#97 Indigirl on 02.04.21 at 6:38 pm

You’re right Garth. I’m dreading when everyone is back to work properly. Not because I’m lounging in jammies and sweats all day, but because my drive to and from work has been free of traffic jams. Every. Single. Day.
I’m enjoying it while I can.

#98 Paul on 02.04.21 at 6:47 pm

So listings are down prices soaring, cheap money, space is tight. I know let’s make up for virus restrictions by allowing 400,000 new Canadians to join us. Most will be urbanites. They’ll need places to live. Real estate to the moon.

#99 KLNR on 02.04.21 at 6:51 pm

@#72 Sheesh on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm
63 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 5:02 pm
2. Every time I see any souvenir it reminds me of the place I was when I got it. Both literally and where I was “in my life”
Is art not supposed to do that? Am I doing art wrong?
……
Only if you’re thinking it’s a good investment. A quick google of the auctions of Wyland’s work show they don’t hold their value. Not sure that him kicking the bucket would change that.

Wyland’s illustrations would look great airbrushed onto the side of a 1970’s van. tres classy

#100 Rainman on 02.04.21 at 7:03 pm

Garth – I find it cute you always bring in Squamish to these discussions. Squamish has been growing and prices escalating for years now. Yes it continued during the last year that I also found weird. Squamish is between two of the most expensive markets in Canada and is an awesome place to live. It continues to grow and thrive. I’m not sure of the cities you mention in the east, but to compare Squamish makes you sound like you don’t know what you are talking about. Comparing Abbotsford to Squamish? silly

#101 The real Kip (Ret) on 02.04.21 at 7:11 pm

Ya well on a serious note, I talked to the Bayliner dealer who today informed me that my boat delivery has been delayed until June. They can’t even order a new boat for 2021, sold out.

#102 Steven Nicolle on 02.04.21 at 7:24 pm

Okay the Roaring Twenties will not happen this year for sure. First of all these vaccines are going to be real slow coming out. Second these variants are going to create havoc as provinces attempt to reopen. So like the Spanish Flu there will be 3 waves. The last one not as bad as the second. My nephew in South Africa just got Covid for the 2nd time. He is 47. So it’s a question now of whether we will be wearing mask till at least last part of 2022. 2023 things should be clearing up.

#103 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 7:33 pm

“The feds plan on making up for virus restrictions by allowing 400,000 new Canadians to join us. Most will be urbanites. They’ll need places to live.”

And jobs. Where are they going to get jobs when 8.8% of us are already unemployed???? I think they should wait until unemployment is down around 4% before they open up the spigots there. Charity starts at home so that means citizens first, whether they be born here or landed immigrants, before we start cramming in a bunch of new people.

And anyway where will we put them? Canada is full, at least the part that is habitable anyway. There is a reason hardly anybody lives north of Edmonton and they wouldn’t be living in Edmonton either if it wasn’t for all the oil jobs, which Trudeau plans on phasing out.

And I am not so sure they will be buying up condos. Most of the immigrants I know prefer larger multi-bedroom houses because they often have large and sometimes multi-generational families. My new neighbors are immigrants, from Pakistan I believe, and they have 4 kids living there. That’s tight in a 2 bedroom condo. They do well (he’s in IT and she’s a family doctor) so they can afford it. Mind you this is Calgary so although they paid well above what an average house costs out here it wasn’t enough to make your ears bleed like in Vancouver. Also a trip downtown from here doesn’t take all day like it does in Toronto or Vancouver. Unless it snows. All bets are off if it snows. 4 wheel drive doesn’t even help because somebody in front of you doesn’t have it.

#104 VladTor on 02.04.21 at 7:34 pm

DELETED

#105 Frustrated Kiwi on 02.04.21 at 7:37 pm

The data from NZ is certainly consistent with your predictions above. People are largely back in the office here. Some more flexible working conditions and certainly more zoom meetings than a year ago, but largely back as it was (although we did have less time to get used to working from home – not sure if relevant in the long term though).

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 7:38 pm

@#92 Long Time

I hate to break it to you….but….

The fact that no one…….. no……..one…….
Comments on your “scripts”.

Probably means that 99% of the blog dogs ( like me) scroll past.

#107 S.Bby on 02.04.21 at 7:44 pm

#77 Linda

Ironically, my employer is a US company …

#108 Ustabe on 02.04.21 at 7:44 pm

Correct- the taxes owing are paid to the shipper, at the destination, prior to them releasing the piece.

The place you buy it from couldn’t charge these- they have no agreement with govt in your place of residence.

So, you are saying that in addition to paying brokerage you also are paying taxes/fees to ? of some sort?

If so why did you engage a broker…that is their job.

As I originally wrote: we have done many import type transactions, my wife’s clinic had tons of high value, pre-NAFTA pieces of equipment delivered. We have sent home treasure from multiple locations while on foreign vacations and not once was there additional cost beyond at the time of purchase and arranging things with the broker.

In fact the only time I have paid taxes after purchase is when I have brought vehicles/trailers from the US into Canada. Then they grab GST at the border and PST when you license and register the unit after your RIV inspections.

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 7:56 pm

#88 KAC on 02.04.21 at 5:58 pm
#49 Linda

“People might be willing to pay for a service that guarantees a seat instead of the crowd them in like cattle going off to the slaughterhouse style of public transit. That by itself more than accounts for the lack of ridership.”

****************

So the lack of ridership is because it’s too crowded?

Sorry, I don’t think I follow the logic.
————–
As usual, Yogi Berra had a saying for this conundrum.
“no one goes there anymore, because it’s too crowded”.

#110 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 7:59 pm

#12 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:51 pm
#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

“If you enjoy looking at art (and that’s kinda the point of it) then it’s not money wasted. If someone has enough in their portfolio that adding more wouldn’t float their (sail)boat then art is a reasonable purchase.”

I buy most all my art from the original artists, usually at arts and crafts sales (lucky for me there is a big one once a year just across the road). I buy fossils at farmer’s markets, etc. None of it will ever be worth anything but if I like a piece I prefer speaking to and negotiating with the original artist. Some of the stuff I have found this way was of very high quality to my poorly educated eyes but I like it and didn’t have to spend thousands of dollars. You can get some nice original stuff for $500. Good for me and good for them.

#111 Don't Be An Idiot on 02.04.21 at 8:03 pm

Only idiots overpay for dirt and drywall. Rent your way to riches and wait for the idiots to go broke and buy something later for pennies on the dollar.

#112 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:06 pm

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

“About 2% of Americans are now fully vaxed.
Nothing to write home about.
But, Biden is starting to get things done.
Trump was a disaster”

Come on, man. Biden has only been in office for what, 3 weeks? Anything done to date was done by the Trump administration, including fast-tracking the vaccines. Joe would have no vaccines to distribute if Trump hadn’t left them for him.

Will Joe do a better job from here? Possibly. But it is hard to do that sort of analysis because you can’t know what didn’t happen.

TDS runs strong with this one.

#113 Tulips on 02.04.21 at 8:11 pm

I have faith in our policy makers to do the right thing… for their careers. They’ll keep the can rolling and the gasbag rising at all costs. At the first sign of problems don’t be surprised to see pro real estate policies such as longer amortizations and purchasing benefits.

I finally stepped off the sidelines and bought an overpriced Fraser Valley house last fall, not because I believe in the value of it, but to hedge against the incessant pumping of our policy makers. They can keep this Ponzi scheme going far longer than I care to wait. I tapered my requirements and bought a humbler home than I ever intended, giving me room to step up if things come down but value to gain if the Ponzi climbs further. Fingers crossed that Garth is right about the hinterlands coming down in price, but not counting on it.

#114 the Jaguar on 02.04.21 at 8:21 pm

Chiming in on the recent art purchase by Mrs. Sail Away:

I used to rent a little apartment for a month or so in a tropical country during the winter months. There was a wonderful selection of art in all the rooms, with one piece I began to covet a lot.
Provided with directions to the artist’s studio on arrival all I found was a very beat up ‘ Auto Mechanic’s Garage’, with the owner presenting as a cross between Ralph Kramden and Stanley Kowalski. Grease all over, wrench in hand, cigar in mouth.

“I’ve been duped”, I thought. Turned out his studio upstairs was indeed full of his paintings, and I was able to bring one piece home tightly rolled inside two large, dried , taped plastic water bottles that served as a ‘ poster/mailing tube’. In some countries a simple poster tube can be very hard to come by.
The artist’s piece was a bargain, and since framed has become one of my favourite possessions. Best of all I met a very interesting character that day.

If the ‘Missus” of Sail Away loves her new art purchase nothing else matters. Certainly not the opinions of the mutts on this blog.

#115 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:22 pm

#25 Crusty Crustacean on 02.04.21 at 2:19 pm

“I’ve been planning to abandon the big city for small town living when I retired, but thanks to Covid, everyone is doing the same thing! I guess I’ll buy a van and live down by the river, but even the price of vans have gone up…”

Ya, I think that is a factor that isn’t being fully considered. I don’t know the numbers, but I suspect that there are a number of 55+ folks who are planning on just retiring when WFH ends. They know they are in the crosshairs anyway, so they are just sticking it out until they get a package. It is pretty hard these days to stick it out much past 50 unless you are in the C-suite. The current VP doesn’t want anyone around who can do his job but by now he has several younger people who can do yours. Bye-bye. The only way you can work to 65 is get a senior VP position and fire all the junior VP’s, or stay low on the radar (no advancements so you are still just a clerk), or get a government job.

Another reason I hate the “tax the rich” folks. Don’t you realize that while I may be making more this year, my working career in that job will be short?

#116 the Jaguar on 02.04.21 at 8:34 pm

On the subject of RTO (return to office), it is well underway. In a very clever and strategically manner.
Garth’s use of the word ‘Hybrid’ is interesting. It’s a ‘trigger word’, of course.
We may, like Alice be crossing through the Looking Glass to a new age, but some things in life are as old as the beard of Moses. They are eternal. Maybe ditch the Cheetos and gin and do a few sit ups these next coming weeks, so you can fit back into your work wardrobe.
Or suck in that gut. Mercy.

#117 Linda on 02.04.21 at 8:34 pm

#88 ‘KAC’ – prior to the virus, there was a point where public transit ridership had plateaued. Effectively anyone who could afford to travel by other means than public transit did so even though transit was a more affordable way to get to their destination. As per surveys, the top reasons for not choosing public transit were 1) amount of time to reach the destination; 2) inconvenience – having to transfer to another bus/train, often missing a connection so having to wait for the next bus/train; 3) the perception that transit was unreliable, time consuming, uncomfortable (not able to get a seat; overcrowded), unsafe/dirty.

#118 Sydneysider on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm

400K immigrants? I used to be against immigration at this scale, despite being an immigrant myself. But my position has changed after putting 2 kids through the high school system. We need immigrants with mathematical, science and technical skills because the school system cannot stimulate enough interest in these areas, except as a route to medicine or dentistry.

Even the technology in my rented house is maintained by immigrants. The guy who fixed my fridge was Russian. The washing machine and dishwasher is handled by an Iranian. And the bathroom plumbing is done by an old but muscular Chinese guy who doesn’t speak a word of English. The roofer, who showed up reeking of booze, was Canadian though.

#119 TrueLies on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm

Scrolling thru the comments and this caught my eye:
……………………….
Nobody can force you to be vaxed. But they don’t need to keep employing you, either. In any case, it doesn’t matter since you have a moral, ethical and social responsibility to get the shot. – Garth
……………………….

Garth, I will agree to the jab IF (and only IF), you give me your personal guarantee that I will have no serious side-effects.

In my opinion, each and every person on the face of this Earth has a choice on how to develop immunity. Your choice may be the vax, mine is via natural processes. Both are viable, however the latter with a longer track record.

You have my guarantee. – Garth

#120 Faron on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm

#112 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:06 pm

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

Will Joe do a better job from here?

Trump left office with a crap plan and 0.5million vax per day. Under Biden already up to 1.5 million. Pfizer vax had/has nothing to do with Trump yet is one of the dominant vaccines. Organized leadership matters. Trump and co had nothing but infighting and election frauding on their plates.

#121 Faron on 02.04.21 at 8:39 pm

#99 KLNR on 02.04.21 at 6:51 pm

@#72 Sheesh on 02.04.21 at 5:19 pm
63 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 5:02 pm

Wyland’s illustrations would look great airbrushed onto the side of a 1970’s van. tres classy

One of my principles is that taste in art is personal. It’s getting old to read people ragging on Wyland and SA’s wife purchasing his art. Of all things in life, art is in the eye of the beholder and thou shalt only slag it if it’s Nickleback.

#122 Jim on 02.04.21 at 8:39 pm

#3, I think we are looking at Agenda 2022.

#123 Faron on 02.04.21 at 8:42 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 5:52 pm

@#71 Penny
“where do you live now Howard?”
+++

Another dimension.

I can grok that.

#124 Longterm on 02.04.21 at 8:48 pm

#53 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 4:09 pm

I read that article and it’s true facts and I don’t really see the catastrophe you do.

Why would we expect to be at the top of the pile? Are Canadians so much more important in your mind than people from other countries? Being in the top twenty of 200 countries is not what I’d call poor performance unless you have a political axe to grind.

#125 waltersafety on 02.04.21 at 8:51 pm

While driving to the accountant today it occurred to me that the business of small business is now getting money from the Government, CEWS ,CEBA, CERB , hydro credit etc. Not about growing your business anymore or profits just free money.
I thought this might be a GME / Reddit thing where small business can finally do what big business has always done negotiating free money for themselves.
Then I read about the McCains getting 5m .
I guess if you’re big enough no need to crowd source.

#126 OttawaRetired on 02.04.21 at 9:00 pm

You can predict the future Garth, but I think your timing is off. Things won’t be normal until spring 2022, and until then, housing will still rise. Spring 2022 is when Canadians will finally get vaccinated. Trudeau has done a horrible job – again.
We now sit at 34th in the world for vaccinating our population, down from 23rd this past weekend and 12th two weeks ago.
https://torontosun.com/news/national/lilley-trudeau-turns-to-the-equivalent-of-the-vaccine-food-bank
______________________________
Israel has over 60% of its citizens vaccinated.
The U.K. – 15%
The USA – 10%
Canada – only 2.6%
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

#127 MF on 02.04.21 at 9:13 pm

#118 Sydneysider on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm

The school system is fine. When I was in university, not too long ago, everyone and their brother wanted medical school and was a real go getter.

Your sample size of 3 or 4 isn’t very convincing.

The school system here is not in the business of telling kids what they should like. That’s up to them, or their parents.

Kids haven’t changed, but parenting is different..and it has a lot to do with both parents having to work all the time to pay off their 1.5 million dollar semi.

MF

#128 Speed Weasel on 02.04.21 at 9:16 pm

#45 Sail Away

Regarding those paintings by Wyland. I had a quick look at his website and now need to wash my eyes. Those are cartoons, not art. Don’t tell me that you also have schmaltzy works by Thomas Kincaid on the wall. Perhaps next to the dogs playing poker?

Heal them, oh Lord, for they are injured in the taste buds!

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 9:22 pm

#125 waltersafety on 02.04.21 at 8:51 pm
While driving to the accountant today it occurred to me that the business of small business is now getting money from the Government, CEWS ,CEBA, CERB , hydro credit etc. Not about growing your business anymore or profits just free money.
I thought this might be a GME / Reddit thing where small business can finally do what big business has always done negotiating free money for themselves.
Then I read about the McCains getting 5m .
I guess if you’re big enough no need to crowd source.
——————
I feel for you.
Would be nice having the Accountant coming to you.

#130 Norman W Kennedy on 02.04.21 at 9:23 pm

“Workplaces will reopen quickly and routinely once the herd is dosed, like in Q3 of 2021.”
Impossible! Try Q2 2022.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 9:26 pm

@#123 Faron
“I can grok that.”

+++++

Ahahaaha

The ‘Stranger in a Strange Land” was a Martian born human that returned to Earth….

Not from another dimension like Howard.

#132 MF on 02.04.21 at 9:28 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 5:52 pm
@#71 Penny
“where do you live now Howard?”
+++

Another dimension

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 6:01 pm

“Sweet ride. Low kms ,Perfectly maintained, never farted in, etc etc etc”

-Lol someone is knocking them out of the park tonight!

MF

#133 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 9:29 pm

@124 Longterm…

“Are Canadians so much more important in your mind than people from other countries?”

__________________________________

I expect competence. We’re a G7 country…ranked behind such juggernauts as Poland, Serbia, Bahrain, Romania…

You seriously don’t see anything wrong with that?

Let’s all strive for mediocrity and line up for our participation medals then…

#134 Ifimay on 02.04.21 at 9:37 pm

When working in a regular office; Lunch will begin at noon.
When working from home; Lunch will be gin at noon.

#135 MF on 02.04.21 at 9:37 pm

#98 Paul on 02.04.21 at 6:47 pm

Real estate is almost entirely related to interest rates and nothing else. Space, immigrants, FOMO and all the rest make up .01% of the reasons behind the boom. The other 99.9% is interest rates.

Right now the Bank of Canada is desperately pulling out all the stops trying to keep rates as low as they can to get us through covid.

Can that last forever?

MF

#136 Quintilian on 02.04.21 at 9:44 pm

“The feds plan on making up for virus restrictions by allowing 400,000 new Canadians to join us.”
That is just aspirational jibber jabber to set the hair on fire of the far right.

It is political banter that doesn’t cost anything, yet it might be useful as bait to spilt the conservatives into two camps.

#137 The Woosh on 02.04.21 at 9:45 pm

102 Steven Nicolle on 02.04.21 at 7:24 pm
Okay the Roaring Twenties will not happen this year for sure. First of all these vaccines are going to be real slow coming out. Second these variants are going to create havoc as provinces attempt to reopen. So like the Spanish Flu there will be 3 waves. The last one not as bad as the second. My nephew in South Africa just got Covid for the 2nd time. He is 47. So it’s a question now of whether we will be wearing mask till at least last part of 2022. 2023 things should be clearing up.

——————————————

I hope your nephew is ok. I like your optimism. It’s very aspirational. Too bad aspirations never seem to match up with reality. Unfortunately, as long as the government continues the nonsense of temporarily locking things down, then reopening just as numbers start coming down, locking down, reopening repeatedly. I think you get the picture. Repeat the same steps over and over and expecting a different result. 2022 sounds great but 2025 or beyond seems more likely.

#138 Matt W on 02.04.21 at 9:47 pm

I think the boc and govt will keep the low rates and real estate support going, no chance of reversal. Too many votes at stake. Inflation is higher than reported, so they’ll keep rates down. Don’t hold your breath for crash.

#139 Kat on 02.04.21 at 9:52 pm

@Don
Thanks but I drive from the west end downtown once a week to downtown abbostford. Takes me just over an hour. Thanks for playing though.

#140 Kat on 02.04.21 at 9:54 pm

I should add Donny that I have driven both ways with rush hour each way both times of day.
Still just over an hour as long as there are no accidents.

#141 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 9:58 pm

#120 Faron on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm
#112 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:06 pm

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

Will Joe do a better job from here?

Trump left office with a crap plan and 0.5million vax per day. Under Biden already up to 1.5 million. Pfizer vax had/has nothing to do with Trump yet is one of the dominant vaccines. Organized leadership matters. Trump and co had nothing but infighting and election frauding on their plates.

————————————

Can you folks not even consider that whatever Pfizer and others have done, they did it mostly during a Trump administration?

All Biden has done with his record number of executive orders is open the borders wide open, promise to vax illegal immigrants as well as not deport them, and allow men who weren’t quite winning in men’s track and field to switch to women’s track and field the following year without any transition other than growing out their hair. Oh ya and mandate masks on Federal property once he found out that he couldn’t mandate the States to do anything mask related.

The lawsuits piling up, because Biden doesn’t understand that the Federal government has limited powers. It can control spending, but mandating masks? Not so much. Those sorts of health issues are decided at the State level. Trump (well, Biden now) can close the borders, but he cannot close the restaurants. Only the governors can do that.

The first step to getting better if you have TDS is to realize that you have TDS. After that you need a ten step program like AA.

#142 The Woosh on 02.04.21 at 9:59 pm

#133 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 9:29 pm
@124 Longterm…

“Are Canadians so much more important in your mind than people from other countries?”

__________________________________

I expect competence. We’re a G7 country…ranked behind such juggernauts as Poland, Serbia, Bahrain, Romania…

You seriously don’t see anything wrong with that?

Let’s all strive for mediocrity and line up for our participation medals then…

————————————————

“Let’s all strive for mediocrity and line up for our participation medals then…”

Is that what they’re adding as the changes to the Canadian anthem? Could be a catchy jingle!

#143 Longterm on 02.04.21 at 10:00 pm

#133 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 9:29 pm

So the total size of your economy is your metric. Hmm.

So what does competence look like in your mind? Please tell.

#144 Farmer Brown on 02.04.21 at 10:02 pm

Garth you say that life might return to a semblance of normal, perhaps by Q3. How is that possible? It seems that even with the herd vaccinated many restrictions are here to stay. With the vaccine debacle in Canada I’m not holding my breath that very many of us citizens will be vaccinated by then anyway. Q3 of 2022 perhaps.

#145 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 10:05 pm

#134 Ifimay on 02.04.21 at 9:37 pm

“When working in a regular office; Lunch will begin at noon.
When working from home; Lunch will be gin at noon.”

——————————————

Well not much different than working downtown. But I had a somewhat customer facing roll. I guess the big difference back then was that I could expense it, and knock off for the afternoon.

#146 Doug in London on 02.04.21 at 10:15 pm

What, you mean the person who bought a house in Punkeydoodles Corners, thinking they can work from home forever, will one day have to commute everyday to downtown Toronto? Life is so unfair.

#147 Dr V on 02.04.21 at 10:16 pm

127 MF – I disagree.

The Post secondary education industrial complex is fuelled by the “you can be anything you want (and make a living doing it)” self-propagated message.

#148 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 10:21 pm

Here’s something for the solar fans, don’t know if it will get many views this late, but hey.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/02/the_battery_fairy_and_other_delusions_in_the_demand_to_replace_gasoline_powered_vehicles_with_electric_cars_and_trucks.html

#149 calguy on 02.04.21 at 10:23 pm

It’s World Cancer Day – we will lose over 83,000 Canadians this year to this. How many to Covid? Each day there is more and more restrictions placed upon hard working Canadians. Among those are cancer patients who can’t get treatment properly or enjoy a last vacation due to the feudal rules of the gov’t. Please start pressuring the gov’t – our country will be lost and you will not get it back. I hope that people get treatment and also the many missed diagnoses because people live in too much fear to see their doctor or go to a hospital. Remember the gov’t has repeatedly misled Canadians always just delaying more bad news. Lockdown in spring (2020) – lost spring break, lost Easter celebrations. In the fall we were told to avoid Thanksgiving gatherings to save Christmas. We never got Christmas. No spring break this year. More and more delays with vaccines and more restrictions. Wake up people! The U.S. (under Trump) has way more vaccines per capita compared to us. Canada relied on China and wasted from May to August/September doing NOTHING! No vaccines ordered, no parliament as it was prorogued. Enough is enough – I would welcome a spring election at this point!

#150 TurnerNation on 02.04.21 at 10:47 pm

This is the reset, jobs gone for GOOD. Industries shut down by the global government. To force a UBI??

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2021/02/04/canada-bans-cruise-ships-canadian-waters-until-march-2022/4396613001/

— Don’t show Doomer Dolce. Recent videos of people around the world living normally. Having fun. Why then might you ask is Kanada being slated for such destruction?

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1355619155593015302

— The Future;

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/60211/ontario-seeks-public-input-to-help-shape-digital-id-program
Potential uses of a digital ID include

…..which easily leads to: the mark.

https://news.mit.edu/2019/storing-vaccine-history-skin-1218
Storing medical information below the skin’s surface
Specialized dye, delivered along with a vaccine, could enable “on-patient” storage of vaccination history.
The research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Koch Institute Support (core) Grant from the National Cancer Institute.

#151 Jeff McNair on 02.04.21 at 10:48 pm

I think a little history can be used to explain the mass exodus from major cities, like Toronto. Take the premise that emigration from cities was merely sparked by covid 19 measures and not caused by them directly, and the theory of inevitable urban renaissance might not hold up. I think what we’re seeing is the beginning of a Canadian version of the “White flight” that began in the 60’s in American cities and persisted for decades. You never know, emigrant Torontonians may prove as adept as their Michiganian counterparts at suffering the agonies of hinterland “uniculturalism”. Perhaps they may even start a lasting trend.

#152 Vanreal on 02.04.21 at 11:02 pm

Vancouver always goes up because it’s the best place to live in Canada. A large city with beaches and ski hills.

#153 truefacts on 02.04.21 at 11:07 pm

@143 Longterm,

“So what does competence look like in your mind?”

______________________________________

Getting done with Covid asap – like in Illiniois (for example):

1 in 12 in Illinois have been vaccinated, in Canada it’s 1 in 37.

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20210204/nearly-one-in-12-illinois-residents-have-had-one-dose-of-covid-19-vaccine

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

That’s incompetence in my book – why so slow?
What would competence look like to you?

#154 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 11:12 pm

#108 Ustabe on 02.04.21 at 7:44 pm

As I originally wrote: we have done many import type transactions, my wife’s clinic had tons of high value, pre-NAFTA pieces of equipment delivered. We have sent home treasure from multiple locations while on foreign vacations and not once was there additional cost beyond at the time of purchase and arranging things with the broker.

————–

The law for bringing foreign paintings into BC is crystal clear that GST and PST must be paid. If you have not been doing this, or paying duty on other types of art, then that’s your business.

#155 The Woosh on 02.04.21 at 11:20 pm

125 waltersafety on 02.04.21 at 8:51 pm
While driving to the accountant today it occurred to me that the business of small business is now getting money from the Government, CEWS ,CEBA, CERB , hydro credit etc. Not about growing your business anymore or profits just free money.
I thought this might be a GME / Reddit thing where small business can finally do what big business has always done negotiating free money for themselves.
Then I read about the McCains getting 5m .
I guess if you’re big enough no need to crowd source.

——————————————

I see you’ve heard of the Tesla business model. It’s the only way they’re making money. They sure don’t make any money selling cars…that’s just a sideline hobby. Anybody shorting Tesla???

#156 morrey on 02.04.21 at 11:33 pm

@#64 S.Bby

…bet you dont have it in writing that you won’t be fired for not getting vacinated. Also let us know how your Employer is obligated to keep you employed.

#157 DON on 02.04.21 at 11:35 pm

139 Kat on 02.04.21 at 9:52 pm
@Don
Thanks but I drive from the west end downtown once a week to downtown abbostford. Takes me just over an hour. Thanks for playing though.

***********

So you drive from downtown to Abbortsford and back again during the rush hour periods? Or do you start your morning in Abbotsford and proceed to may your way dowtown to work? There is a difference!

DON does not translate to Donny or even Don.

It is an acronym…hence the capitals. Details do matter.

#158 Faron on 02.05.21 at 12:04 am

#141 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 9:58 pm
#120 Faron on 02.04.21 at 8:35 pm
#112 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:06 pm
#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.21 at 1:57 pm

I did a lot of breathing in the US during the trump admin. I’ll thank Trump I guess? The pres doesn’t do everything… Trump left vacc distribution in a shambles ’cause muh votes.

We’ve known that the mask mandate would be federal-only for weeks now. Biden actually listens to his advisors and also understands the limits of the executive. Trump had zero experience and zero clue about government. Zero.

Thanks for letting us know how you feel about trans athletes tho. Fun fact, a friend is going to help develop the policy for Athletics Canada. Let me know if I should pass any ideas along :-) I note no long haired dudes. Right?

And no, executive doesnt control spending. Sry.

W re TDS. If you walked into my house and crapped on my floor, I’d be right pissed to the point of seeming deranged. You could say I had NDS. Would I not be justified in my anger? TDS is the same but the living room is a country of nearly 400 million.

#159 DON on 02.05.21 at 12:41 am

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/working-from-home-deduction-could-cost-ottawa-260-million-in-lost-taxes

Boomerang!

#160 Jane24 on 02.05.21 at 2:08 am

Every time I read about Cdn RE on these posts I ask myself why? Canada is the 2nd largest country in the world and despite the dreadful weather everyone should surely be living on 2 acres like Australia. We visit family every summer and every summer we are shocked by how little spending money the average Canadian has. Why would 400k folk want to move there? What are they looking for? It can’t be their own home and a high standard of living. Go to Vietnam for that as we do in the winter.

Some of this migration Garth may be boomers like us taking advantage to get out of the city and into small towns with our ill gotten gains for retirement. I have lived in many places in Canada but Cambridge Ont was the best.

Here in England they have done 11 million first virus shots and mine is tomorrow as they are up to 1954. I am 66. These shots are being delivered everywhere. Mine is at a surgery I don’t know, hubby’s is at a local drug store and the neighbours are going to the fire station. Canada has to truly get its finger out on this.

Our new bank of England Governor is a damn sight less gloomy than your Mark Carney was. Thank God Mr Anti-Brexit returned to Canada. This new version says that Brits have saved £125 billion by not spending or going to work this year and that the last 2 quarters will be a massive global spending boom. I can’t wait.

#161 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 02.05.21 at 2:13 am

Sail Away bought the painting because his wife liked it a lot.

Sail Away is not investing in art…………He is investing in his marriage.

(Edit: It’s late, I’m tired, darn typos.)

#162 westcdn on 02.05.21 at 3:08 am

I am actually amazed by what people think there worth. Must be be union thinking.

I not against people earning more if they put the effort in and they do pay the tax bill. I will not hurt them.

Odd thing about my back. I could not sit for a few minutes without major pain spasms in my legs – however I could stand for hours. I noted my desk could be raised so I chose to work on my feet. I now have a respect for waitress as it took me to stand on my feet for 8 hours plus.

No one noted as I do not complain. However a co-worker recognized the pain I was going through. I considered him a #1 slacker but he was kind. He told me it would take me 4 months to get over it. He was right and coached me through the ordeal.

#163 Neo on 02.05.21 at 7:00 am

Hey Garth,

Sorry to burst your Q3 we are all vaxxed bubble but there is ZERO chance of that. It’s February and Ontario has only fully vaccinated 80,000 out of 14,500,000 people. Let’s get real here. It’s not even happening in 2021.

https://www.statista.com/chart/24064/covid-19-vaccination-timeline-global/

That is Trudeau’s stated time. My post ended with a caution. Work on that reading comprehension. – Garth

#164 Wrk.dover on 02.05.21 at 7:24 am

Some blue mountain pottery will co-ordinate with that hue of blue/green algae.

They used to hawk that pottery from a showroom the size of a grocerie store, until they didn’t.

#165 rosie on 02.05.21 at 7:46 am

#126 Ottawa Retired
So it’s Israel for the gold, the UK for silver and the US for bronze. Canada gets Miss congeniality.

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.21 at 8:23 am

@#128 Speed Weasel

One persons art is another persons’ kitsch….

I wonder what Bob Ross paintings go for now…?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrAMRxBB5KI

#167 Wrk.dover on 02.05.21 at 8:36 am

#165 rosie on 02.05.21 at 7:46 am
#126 Ottawa Retired
So it’s Israel for the gold, the UK for silver and the US for bronze. Canada gets Miss congeniality

==============================

Key word being; Miss

#168 neo on 02.05.21 at 8:54 am

That is Trudeau’s stated time. My post ended with a caution. Work on that reading comprehension. – Garth

********************************************

Who cares what Trudeau’s stated time is. It’s not reality or realistic. He’s a politician. They lie. Particularly this politician who’s been caught three times lying and been hit with ethics violations each time. He has no credibility whatsoever with this rollout. That’s what everyone has comprehended at this point.

#169 Dharma Bum on 02.05.21 at 9:13 am

“This is the worst situation ever. It tops the 1989 real estate apex, which led to the 1992 housing crash.”
– Garth
——————————————————————–

1989.

Sounds ancient.

That’s when I bought the house I still live in today.

Luckily, it was mostly paid for by hugely inflated dollars from the house I bought in 1985. Now THAT was a real estate boom! 4 years to double the value.

Sure, the market crashed 3 years later, but I never noticed. I couldn’t have cared less about the market value of the house in those days. New job, 2 kids (plus one more arrived the year the market crashed), busy 7 days a week.

32 years later the kids are grown and independent. I’m retired. The house is worth about 5 times what I paid for it (based on multiple sales of similar houses on the street).

If you play the long game, it’s no biggie.

Then again, people today can’t seem to stay the course on anything. Particularly marriage.

I blame social media.

#170 joekahn on 02.05.21 at 9:13 am

Trudeau Economy sucks. Another 212,000 jobs lost last month.Unemployment rate jumps to 9.4% from 8.9% and trade surplus decreases by 3.6 Billion dollars.

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.21 at 9:29 am

@#160 Jane twobore
” We visit family every summer and every summer we are shocked by how little spending money the average Canadian has. Why would 400k folk want to move there? What are they looking for? It can’t be their own home and a high standard of living. Go to Vietnam for that as we do in the winter.”

++++

Me, me, me, rich, rich, rich,…… little people…, me, me, me, rich, rich, rich,…. little people…., me, me, me….

We get it.

#172 BillyBob on 02.05.21 at 9:42 am

#24 Faron on 02.04.21 at 2:16 pm
#12 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:51 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

I agree. I waste good money to keep a very humble boat so that I can enjoy it and spend time with some of BC’s best sailors and learn from them. This all brings me much joy that makes the money worth it to me. An investment in my happiness if you will.

I was saying that, for me, such a purchase is not enviable in response to BillyBob supposing I (or Sara) was envious. The point that BillyBob missed was that feeling a need to brag about an art purchase on the internet and then triple down is notably pathetic. If Sail Away was stoked about art he could have just said “hey guys, I just picked up a really nice piece by so and so for my wife. She’s super happy.” Sail Away also expressed disdain for art when Garth gave us a brief tour of his Lunenburg office. So, there’s that too.

==============================

Actually it’s more pathetic to get so worked up about someone bragging about their /whatever to the point of choosing which words they should use so as not to upset you.

The real question is why does it bother you and Sara so much if someone makes a harmless boast about something? It seems like displayed pride mainly annoys people who have little in themselves.

Your frustration implies you have nothing comparable to brag about. That’s a form of envy plain as day. For what it’s worth it’s a common cancer these days, so don’t be too hard on yourself.

If it’s not possible to brush off others’ bragging, here’s a range of suggested coping strategies:

1. Agressive: brag about something even better. This is kind of an alpha thing so probably not the way to go for you.
2. Passive-aggressive: lavishly compliment them on their /whatever. Kill them with kindness.
3. Passive: Ignore them and hope they go away.

But above all, have fun with it!

#173 Sail Away on 02.05.21 at 9:45 am

#155 The Woosh on 02.04.21 at 11:20 pm
125 waltersafety on 02.04.21 at 8:51 pm

————-

While driving to the accountant today it occurred to me that the business of small business is now getting money from the Government, CEWS ,CEBA, CERB , hydro credit etc.

————-

I see you’ve heard of the Tesla business model. It’s the only way they’re making money. They sure don’t make any money selling cars…that’s just a sideline hobby. Anybody shorting Tesla???

————–

You bet. My company accepted it all CEWS and interest-free loans happily. We used the subsidized workers to do a bunch of pro bono projects: Foodshare refrig building and greenhouse, BMX track reconstruction, downtown pocket parks, Rotary Centennial peace garden, etc. Now all those clients have hired us for paying projects- we had free money and passed it along in free work that is now paying handsome dividends.

I’m also long TSLA… and all things Elon, including his business model. Did you hear Starlink got $1B from govt last week? Now valued at $81B. Big score… again.

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.21 at 10:19 am

China ratchets up the pressure on Taiwan…..again….

https://graphics.reuters.com/TAIWAN-CHINA/SECURITY/jbyvrnzerve/index.html

#175 Bartman on 02.05.21 at 10:32 am

135# mf. Where do you get your percentages from? Hard to believe the small effects of such a input of people looking for shelter. Especially if they are concentrated in a few cities.

#176 IHCTD9 on 02.05.21 at 10:33 am

#169 Dharma Bum on 02.05.21 at 9:13 am

Then again, people today can’t seem to stay the course on anything. Particularly marriage.

I blame social media.
___

Me too – same for FOMO. Too many fragile folks looking at artsy Facebook pics of their social circle on vacation in some tropical location, or in front of their new toy. Probably plays a lot into all the anxiety in the West today as well.

I think divorce rates have actually dropped a little starting with the Mils. Marriage rates are falling off a cliff of course, but those that do tie the knot seem to be sticking it out a little better.

I’ve read that these more solid marriages are of the higher educated, better upbringing, gainfully employed types. They are already calling these folks “power couples”, and a new emerging source of inequality…

I can see some choppy water in the future regarding singles vs. married folks. Already there is legitimate noise from the singles set about high income taxes, benefits they don’t get (but pay for), services they can’t use (but pay for) tax perks they can’t exploit, and houses they can never afford – even with a great 6 figure income. This sentiment will increase as they get left further and further behind.

#177 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.05.21 at 10:39 am

#173
Tesla should be in the fireworks business.
They are good at building stuff that explodes.

#178 DON on 02.05.21 at 10:48 am

152 Vanreal on 02.04.21 at 11:02 pm
Vancouver always goes up because it’s the best place to live in Canada. A large city with beaches and ski hills.

**********
Just can’t swim in the water. People are free to swim but yet vey few do. Kits beach is packed but folks swim in the large pee pool cause the ocean is full of fecal matter.

At night if you sit on kits beach near the logs – you can watch all the rats come out from under the logs and party all over where the people were sun tanning.

#179 Don Guillermo on 02.05.21 at 10:51 am

#126 OttawaRetired on 02.04.21 at 9:00 pm

Spring 2022 is when Canadians will finally get vaccinated. Trudeau has done a horrible job – again.
We now sit at 34th in the world for vaccinating our population, down from 23rd this past weekend and 12th two weeks ago.
https://torontosun.com/news/national/lilley-trudeau-turns-to-the-equivalent-of-the-vaccine-food-bank
______________________________
Israel has over 60% of its citizens vaccinated.
The U.K. – 15%
The USA – 10%
Canada – only 2.6%
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
***************************************
#124 Longterm on 02.04.21 at 8:48 pm

Being in the top twenty of 200 countries is not what I’d call poor performance unless you have a political axe to grind
**************************************
Longterm thinks we’re setting our expectations too high. We’re not dead last. We should at least get a participation prize.

#180 DON on 02.05.21 at 11:04 am

@MF

yo my brother from another mother.

How you making out these days…took a break I see.

#181 bdwy on 02.05.21 at 11:07 am

100 Rainman on 02.04.21 at 7:03 pm
Garth – I find it cute you always bring in Squamish to these discussions. Squamish has been growing and prices escalating for years now. Yes it continued during the last year that I also found weird. Squamish is between two of the most expensive markets in Canada and is an awesome place to live. It continues to grow and thrive. I’m not sure of the cities you mention in the east, but to compare Squamish makes you sound like you don’t know what you are talking about. Comparing Abbotsford to Squamish? silly

———————–
and on a sunny day with snow capped peaks there is no more beautiful place to go for a drive anywhere in north america imho.

a previous friend/neighbour in east van rented, had little cash. got a new man, went to squamish and bought a big lot/basic house maybe 10 years ago. kaboom. cashed out to a huge VI country farm/acreage.

#182 bdwy on 02.05.21 at 11:12 am

GAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMEEEEEEEEESTOOOOOOOOPPPPP!

maybe this dying fish can flop around yet!

in for [email protected] to the moooooooooooooooonnnnnnn!
(insert emojis here)

more fun than a whale painting.

#183 SeeB on 02.05.21 at 11:39 am

Workplaces will reopen quickly and routinely once the herd is dosed, like in Q3 of 2021. After all, employers have been sitting on expensive real estate for more than a year, and have watched worker productivity crash as people get comfortable spending hunks of their days with dogs, kids, groceries, yoga & laundry. And gin.

——————————————

While I realize throwing around single articles or anecdotes as gospel is a longstanding tradition around here, it is obvious that we are yet to the see the full truth of this experiment. I base this on the fact that every job, person, and home situation is going to be very different for each person, and every organization.

I am finding it very difficult to locate articles or studies that provide a breakdown of the different criteria that leads to successful outcomes or

External factors that are often overlooked by articles:

Covid stress
Industry/Job type – eg. Knowledge workers vs. Builders
Number of BS Meetings Required or Avoided
Personal work styles
How much of a control freak your boss is
…likely many more….

Except Child Care. That seems to be the one thing everyone agrees is a drain on productivity. Pretty funny how the solution here is “end WFH” rather than “provide affordable child care.” Building an economy that forces the majority of familes to ALWAYS have two working adults during crucial child developmental years is a massive mistake, especially in a situation like now. But whatever the rich overlords want goes, even if it’s terrible for building a capable society. Mais bon, c’est une vie horrible.

Does the state have a responsibility to care for your children, pre-school? – Garth

#184 Damifino on 02.05.21 at 11:50 am

Now that the Canadian vaccine rollout has gotten off to a embarrassingly poor start, the possibility of a Liberal majority is fading quickly. Freeland’s first budget promises to be a hodgepodge of air-headed green mush that even the NDP couldn’t support.

After a non-confidence vote and an election as Canada slips further into third world status, the best the Libs could hope for is another (smaller) minority. That would crumble quickly and spell the end of T2. Freeland then inherits a formidable mess, partly of her own making.

Honestly, until last week I though they had it in the bag. That is, until the ramifications of China getting even on the Meng Wanzhou file became clear. Never did a man so underestimate the boiling anger in Cathay. Justin still thinks it’s the same country where his dad had such a warm welcome all those years ago.

#185 Bill on 02.05.21 at 12:20 pm

#179 Don Guillermo on 02.05.21 at 10:51 am

He gave the CCP all of our PPE as well. IDIOT

Hahahaha buying things dear.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/investing/gamestop-wallstreetbets-reddit/index.html

#186 Gravy Train on 02.05.21 at 12:25 pm

#112 Nonplused on 02.04.21 at 8:06 pm
“[…] TDS runs strong with this one.” It’s just my opinion, but it seems to me that Richard Barnett, Jake Angeli, et al. are the ones more accurately diagnosed with TDS. No? Am I wrong? Did you read that Barnett has now been charged with eight felony counts, and is facing at least 20 years in prison. Do you feel he’s been unjustly charged? I’m so glad you didn’t participate in the insurrection! You didn’t, did you!?

Which faction of the Republican party do you now support, Nonplused? Is it the conservatives (à la Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Tom Rice and Ben Sasse) or the whangdoodles (à la Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mo Brooks, Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz)?

#187 Faron on 02.05.21 at 12:28 pm

#172 BillyBob on 02.05.21 at 9:42 am

You have a thick skull. Probably useful for keeping the cosmic rays out given how much time you spend at altitude. Spallation is a cruel mistress as they say.

There is apparently a massive gulf between those who have/havenot and envy wealth and those who have/havenot and don’t envy. No, I don’t have a spare five to six figures to toss at a painting, but I couldn’t care less. If I did, it wouldn’t feel spare, it would just get dropped in savings and offered to family in need or kept for a rainy day. The materialism and envy piece is all you bud.

#188 Doug in London on 02.05.21 at 12:37 pm

For anyone who’s paying attention there may be a once in a lifetime opportunity. Anyone who bought a house in a place like Barrie or Kitchener, because it’s the only place they could afford one, now’s your chance to cash in that lottery ticket. Sell, take the money, and rent (not buy) a place closer to the city. If you don’t have too much stuff look at renting a condo. Hurry, don’t wait, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation has been frantically trying to get a hold of you so you can cash in that winning lottery ticket. Hey, if you get sick of being back in the office your winnings can go to an earlier retirement fund. Well, what are you waiting for? Get going, act now!

#189 Faron on 02.05.21 at 12:43 pm

Does the state have a responsibility to care for your children, pre-school? – Garth

Not a responsibility to be sure. But, if having a high labour participation rate aids economic growth (it does) then child care is a good investment for the common good even if ic comes from your tax dollars.

Don’t have the stats for Canada, but in the US the vast majority of decline in the labour participation rate has come from women leaving the workforce to care for children. That isn’t good for a recovering economy. Unless productivity steps up (it’s falling) it will represent an economic contraction despite lowing numinal employment rates.

#190 Sail Away on 02.05.21 at 12:50 pm

#187 Faron on 02.05.21 at 12:28 pm

…I don’t have a spare five to six figures to toss at a painting, but I couldn’t care less. If I did, it wouldn’t feel spare, it would just get dropped in savings and offered to family in need or kept for a rainy day.

———–

Yes, it would (feel spare, that is). When that point of excess is reached, all other considerations have already been factored in, and spare is spare.

The get rich slow method is best… although things, like TSLA, for example, can happen that skew that timeline. Munger counsels extreme patience, then going all in when conditions meet your criteria. It takes a long time to develop reliable criteria points.

#191 KLNR on 02.05.21 at 12:52 pm

@#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.21 at 9:29 am
@#160 Jane twobore
” We visit family every summer and every summer we are shocked by how little spending money the average Canadian has. Why would 400k folk want to move there? What are they looking for? It can’t be their own home and a high standard of living. Go to Vietnam for that as we do in the winter.”

++++

Me, me, me, rich, rich, rich,…… little people…, me, me, me, rich, rich, rich,…. little people…., me, me, me….

We get it.

bwahahahaha. exactly this.
wonder if jane is sailaway’s spouse.
birds of a feather

#192 The Woosh on 02.05.21 at 12:52 pm

Except Child Care. That seems to be the one thing everyone agrees is a drain on productivity. Pretty funny how the solution here is “end WFH” rather than “provide affordable child care.” Building an economy that forces the majority of familes to ALWAYS have two working adults during crucial child developmental years is a massive mistake, especially in a situation like now. But whatever the rich overlords want goes, even if it’s terrible for building a capable society. Mais bon, c’est une vie horrible.

Does the state have a responsibility to care for your children, pre-school? – Garth

——————————————

In Quebec, the answer apparently is yes. They seem to do a good job about it too.

#193 Faron on 02.05.21 at 1:32 pm

#190 Sail Away on 02.05.21 at 12:50 pm

#187 Faron on 02.05.21 at 12:28 pm

The get rich slow method is best…

Fair enough. I’ll see when I get there how spare things feel.

I do think you mistake me as a wallstreetbets kind of get rich quick chaser. As I’ve said many times, my risk tolerance is too low for such things and my analytical desire too high to just “wing it”. It’s a symptom of perfectionism, which certainly has its downsides.

#194 jess on 02.05.21 at 1:33 pm

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

26 OttawaRetired on 02.04.21 at 9:00 pm
apples and oranges
https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-coronavirus-vaccine-success-secret/

=========================
the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation
The GAVI Alliance (formerly the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation) is a global health partnership of public and private sector organizations dedicated to “immunisation for all”.
https://cepi.net/about/whyweexist/
https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/covax-publishes-first-interim-distribution-forecast
https://www.gavi.org/sites/default/files/covid/covax/COVAX-Interim-Distribution-Forecast.pdf
https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/world-leaders-make-historic-commitments-provide-equal-access-vaccines-all
https://www.gavi.org/investing-gavi/funding/donor-profiles/canada
======================

#195 Sail Away on 02.05.21 at 2:36 pm

#193 Faron on 02.05.21 at 1:32 pm

I do think you mistake me as a wallstreetbets kind of get rich quick chaser. As I’ve said many times, my risk tolerance is too low for such things and my analytical desire too high to just “wing it”. It’s a symptom of perfectionism, which certainly has its downsides.

———-

By no means. I think you are fiscally conservative, practical and analytical… with a slight mistrust in others that will lead you to more naturally short than go long since you always sort of suspect the con.

I fully expect you will find the investing niche that works for you after a lot of tracking and statistical analysis. It might be shorting… or even activist short research, which can be fantastically lucrative. Good luck!

That will be $.25, please.

#196 Linda on 02.05.21 at 3:35 pm

#149 ‘CalGuy’ – the difference between Covid & cancer is that cancer is NOT communicable. Covid is. And yes, our vaccine procurement & roll out have been less than stellar thus far.

About the travel – most cancer patients are not exactly up for it, especially if they’ve had the joy of chemotherapy. Most health plans will NOT cover any out of country treatment that might be needed if traveling while ill & generally requires those undergoing treatment to remain ‘in country’ in order to maintain health care coverage. Coverage which, once withdrawn, very likely won’t be reinstated. As for travel during Covid, haven’t you noticed that a lot of countries have closed their borders to non-essential travel? IF those countries do let you in, they usually require a period of quarantine. How much sense does it make to travel abroad only to look at 4 walls for X number of days upon arrival? Oh, you will simply ignore those pesky quarantine restrictions? Zero sympathy for any fines or jail time those doing just that may receive.

#197 John Charles Scaling on 02.05.21 at 4:01 pm

Garth, THEY ARE NOT COMING BACK,!
,I moved from Vancouver to Vernon two years ago along with a lot of other people. From one end of the Okanagan Valley to the other new homes are being built and new businesses are being started.
UBC Okanagan is planning a major expansion in Kelowna.
Are they making a big mistake? Come and take a look for yourself, the weather is nice this year!