Empathy city

Some weeks ago there were 14 condo units for sale in a prime low-rise, downtown, chi-chi 416 building. Then, in January, just a couple. Now, zero. The average selling price-per-foot vacillated wildly. From a thousand bucks last summer, it dipped briefly as low as $750. The final couple of sales were back to a grand.

In the last three months of the Year of Satan, condo sales in the nation’s biggest market zipped higher by 20.7% year/year even as the number of available units mushroomed. But look at this: the pace of condos newly rented jumped 86%. Rents are down by an average of 16.5%. And new rental listings keep piling up. (BTW, rents in SF are off 28%, down 23% in NYC and up 2% in YVR.)

Hmm. A sales surge does not quite jibe with the narrative that the virus, the looming vacancy tax, the lockdown, the collapse of Airbnb, the dearth of students and immigrants and the shuttering of the office towers would spell the end of urban real estate. So, what’s going on here?

Well, there are changes afoot. Demographic ones, which reflect what’s happening in the wider real estate market – where people are being priced out of $1 million semis in the burbs and by bidding wars in the far-flung boonies for houses they never envisioned themselves buying.

Yes, more condo owners are bailing. Yup, rents are falling and a slew of tenants are benefitting from that. But buyers have reappeared. The best units are being snorfled up. And it appears these buyers are end-users (in general), not investors this time.

No big surprise there since owning a rental apartment is a recipe for negative cash flow and heartache. As mentioned, rents have cascaded lower – right back to levels unseen for most of a decade. Meanwhile ownership costs – taxes and condo fees – continue to march higher. And as in several provinces, evictions have been outlawed as the virus continues to plague us. So if a deadbeat tenant decides to stop paying, well, tough. Moreover, now that the hammer has come down on short-term vacation rentals, the tourists and uni students are gone and arrivals at Pearson airport are treated like crime syndicate bosses, the economics of condo investing have changed.

Ergo, condos as homes. What a radical idea. The bottom rung of the property ladder is once again emerging in the urban core, now that Covid, nesting and WFH have pushed ticky-tacky suburban houses into the seven-figure cloud.

But wait, isn’t the core supposed to be a morgue? An economic dead zone? About to be repopulated by raccoons, coyotes and fierce falcons nesting in the crumbling crevices of what used to be bank towers? I mean, just look at how people have stopped moving around, and going to work.

Truth be told, urbanity has big pandemic issues right now. In Toronto, as mentioned a few times, the giant underground PATH, home to hundreds of small businesses is an empty (if glitzy) tunnel of despair. The commercial vacancy rate, a tight 2% pre-Covid, has zipped higher to more than 7% – and hundreds of thousands of feet of new commercial space (like in the CBIC complex and Google’s new digs on King Street) are under construction. (There are also massive, towering condo developments proceeding.)

And look at how depopulation has taken place, 11 months after our world rolled over.  There’s new evidence the WFH crowd is doing okay, and has retreated from the downtown while the hourly-paid workies have taken it on the chin. StatsCan says of the 80,000 jobs lost at the end of 2020, the drop was “entirely attributable” to those folks who punch a clock and earn significantly less than the salaried elite. “The number of hourly paid employees was 8.7% below its pre-COVID level, compared with 3.7% below the pre-COVID level for salaried employees.”

Okay, we get it. No restaurants, clubs, bars, gyms, hair salons, entertainment or events taking place. Vacant office space piling up. Rents falling. Investor-landlords freaking.

So, again, how do we explain condo sales rising and prices restoring?

Seems those buying these units as principal residences believe what we’re being told by the authorities. New infections are declining and daily cases dropping. A number of effective vaccines are being pumped out. Every Canadian who wants a shot will have one in their arm by the end of September – eight months from now, says the prime minister. The kids will be going back to school in person in all of Ontario (like the rest of Canada) next week.

We all knew the pandemic would be temporary. No, we did not expect it to last more than a year. But now there’s an end date. Our leaders say when the autumn comes, we’ll be okay. This has also been borne out by financial markets, pushing equity values to all-time highs on the expectation the second half of 2021 and next year will be wicked. Good wicked. Not the Satanic kind.

The expectation: this will be a year of decreasing anxiety about the virus. The herd will eventually get dosed. All service industries will be allowed to operate. Gathering sizes will remain restricted, but increasingly expanded as the year winds down. Schools will not close again. The hospitalization/ICU/health care system crisis will fade. Offices will reopen, most with a hybrid workplace/WFH schedule. Suburbia will lose its cachet. The city will renaissance. Urban streets will fill again. So will subway cars and commuter trains. Food courts. Sidewalks. Highways.

It will be slow, but relentless. From February of 2020 to the end of the virus could be three years. We are one-third there. But by far, this was the worst chapter.

What can go wrong? They’re lying to us.

About the picture: The ceramic mutts which form Toronto’s iconic downtown Dog Fountain, amidst a forest of condos, have been masked for Covid. The virus has apparently muzzled everyone.

167 comments ↓

#1 Piano_Man87 on 02.03.21 at 1:31 pm

“We all knew the pandemic would be temporary. ”

Yes.. but how temporary is the real question.

https://www.reuters.com/article/olympics-2024/interview-olympics-paris-2024-will-have-contingency-plan-if-covid-19-crisis-not-over-estanguet-idUSL1N2K825S

#2 Cheese on 02.03.21 at 1:35 pm

I look forward to the recovery of REITs like Riocan, it will help my portfolio significantly.

#3 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 1:37 pm

Use of words, control of language.

A lot of sensitivity yesterday.

A founding tactic of Wokeism and the “emotional hemophiliacs” that gather to that religion, is control of “how you speak” with the purpose to prevent the uninitiated from speaking.

The tactic is to ban words and concepts, create new language so that only those versed in the Wokeism ideology have a voice.

Anyone without the sophistry of the WOKE is therefore marginalized and their voice shut down. Orwell had a name for it “Newspeak”.

Same tactic with the “Anti-Racism”, instead of simply being intolerant of any racism they have just turned it around and adhere to group identity and are racist. It is a bizarre disconnect.

#4 Habitt on 02.03.21 at 1:39 pm

No wonder your so successful. Great positive attitude. Thanks for that and what you do here.

#5 Oracle of Ottawa on 02.03.21 at 1:54 pm

I heard today on Bloomberg TV that a lot of the money people are saving right now will be used to pay down debt when these rent controls are lifted. I’m not sure this big bounce in markets will be as great as one expects.

#6 Penny Henny on 02.03.21 at 2:16 pm

Heard that they might be changing the words to our National Anthem yet again. What now you ask?
There are going to remove the part about ‘glorious and free’ lest someone get the wrong idea.

#7 Joe Schmoe on 02.03.21 at 2:16 pm

I sold my investment condo at a loss and pushed the capital into weed stocks and whatever gets tweeted next!

I think the challenge with investing is people seeking to “double their investment in 2 years”.

Investing is a slow grind. Unless you invest in yourself to succeed at a venture.

#8 Comments! on 02.03.21 at 2:18 pm

Yes the ten thousand day war was also temporary.

Enough already. The damage already inflicted with more restrictions to come, will be felt profoundly for a generation, count on it.

#9 Leftover on 02.03.21 at 2:22 pm

From the Guardian, no less:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/01/coronavirus-uk-covid-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

UK cases and deaths way down, 15% of the population now with at least one vaccination. Another article mentioned that more than 10% of the UK population has already had Covid-19, so maybe 25% altogether with immunity. Now the curves are going down, rapidly, even with the variants.

Euphoria to follow, accompanied by inflation. Next stop, rising interest rates, driven by the bond market not central banks.

#10 mike from mtl on 02.03.21 at 2:29 pm

Let’s hope so, though I have low expectations.

I’d add the US will be in far better shape than us, and much sooner. Like Australia and many others, we don’t have any vaccine manufacturing – we are completely at the whims of the EU. Even still now with real-world results, the ‘rona vax is not looking to be much different than the familiar Influenza.

Funny how even lockdown heavy NYC is reopening as we’re staying/closing down – something a total 180 from last month.

Again it is impossible to completely eradicate Inf-A though we’ve somehow managed to live with it. SARSv1 was far more deadly than SARSv2 and almost as transmissable. At the time it was thought to be a waste of time to try and vax against v1 – v2 will be the same. Difference this time is v1 was halted early on before it really could take hold, became self-limiting.

The media and Politicos certainly did a bang up job conjuring up panic and fear. Even saw local media priming us with a mention of “Covid-21” – that certainly caught my attention.

#11 Comments! on 02.03.21 at 2:32 pm

What can go wrong? They’re lying to us.

—————————–

2 weeks to flatten the curve
Masks don’t work
10’s of millions will die worldwide in 2020
Stay home while we vacation and laugh at you
Cerb type programs only temporary
Wal-Mart and Costco good/safe, mom and pop shop bad/dangerous

Yes they might have a tiny bit of a credibility issue.

#12 N on 02.03.21 at 2:35 pm

Wall Street’s zest for a corner of suburban real estate long left to small landlords is reaching new heights, attracting institutional investors, homebuilders and apartment managers during a pandemic that has ignited demand for larger homes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/wall-street-s-favorite-suburban-housing-bet-is-getting-crowded?sref=cEiDUCST

#13 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 02.03.21 at 2:44 pm

Lots of people yesterday took offense to Garth’s use if certain words perceived as hurtful,non PC ,even though he was directly quoting from what some were calling themselves.
I have 2 comments to make:
1) No matter what others say, if you let their words hurt you , You give them power over yourself so you let others dictate what you do in life and end up focusing on stuff that in the grand scheme of one’s life it doesn’t really matter. I have been called all kind of hurtful things by those close and strangers and at some point decided to be pragmatic and just ignore them,cut them out and focus on what is important to me. Decades later I feel accomplished and happy and do much better then those that did the name calling.
2) I find interesting that the educational system,academia if you wish are such strong supporters of socialism when if you look back they were the first to be purged when the socialists took over , no matter the country . So ignore all of the teachers, professors,all of the people saying things that you find hurtful and be pragmatic, focus on yourself , what you can do and make something out of your life. You cannot control what others do to you but you can control how you respond to it,hence the outcome.
Live long and prosper:-)

#14 FNAiks on 02.03.21 at 2:44 pm

I’m pretty sure Toronto’s population was declining even before the pandemic hit and the virus just helped to accelerate it. I think this deurbanization is a trend that will continue. Not used to disagreeing with Garth but my bet is that condo prices will continue to decline for many years.

#15 Pandemic in a brave new world on 02.03.21 at 2:53 pm

I can’t believe the stupidity of the CANADIAN herd..

U tell them on all media channels every five minutes everyday of the week that they will die of COVID, the govt destroys their livelihood and what do they do??

THEY BUY A HOUSE…

IT’S LIKE THE QUEEN OF AN ANT COLONY KILLS
HERSELF AFTER DESTROYING THE NEST AND WORKER ANTS ARE REBUILDING THE NEST FROM THE RUBBLE WITHOUT A FEDERAL OR PROVINCIAL QUEEN By BEING HIGH ON SUGAR..U GET MY DRIFT..loool

#16 They're lying to us on 02.03.21 at 2:54 pm

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/01/28/Virus-Changed-Get-To-Zero-Face-Catastrophe/

#17 mark on 02.03.21 at 3:00 pm

Your not taking into account the variant strains that don’t react well to the vaccines, some coverage but a big wild card, we are far away from this being over!. This is the new normal and the Rona will always be with us mutating creating turmoil.

#18 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:02 pm

Every Canadian who wants a shot will have one in their arm by the end of September – eight months from now, says the prime minister.

I believe that 0%, judging by trends and history of typical government competence and efficiency in any large scale project. Maybe by the end fo the year everyone who wants a shot will have their first one. Maybe. I’ll be generous and give it even odds.

#19 Carmela Rotiroti on 02.03.21 at 3:03 pm

Nothing is permanent.

#20 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:05 pm

#1 Piano_Man87

A multi-billion dollar global event has contingency plans for all kinds of stuff? Say it isn’t so!

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 3:09 pm

#11 Comments! on 02.03.21 at 2:32 pm
What can go wrong? They’re lying to us.

—————————–

2 weeks to flatten the curve
Masks don’t work
10’s of millions will die worldwide in 2020
Stay home while we vacation and laugh at you
Cerb type programs only temporary
Wal-Mart and Costco good/safe, mom and pop shop bad/dangerous

Yes they might have a tiny bit of a credibility issue.
——————————-
The liars are all gone now.
Biden is in, and the cases are coming down.
It’s a miracle, Trump would say.

#22 TurnerNation on 02.03.21 at 3:10 pm

Hard hit in Calgary? The UN is coming for you. This is all part of the new global system rolled out March 2020.
For every city, btw.

Real easy: this is all about control over out Feeding, Breeding and Travel/Movement. Why we have virtual Berlin Walls in Kanada; war-time Curfews; travel bans. AB announcing a 24 day quarrantine. Yup a CV mutation did that! Like magic. Off to the camps for 24 days.

http://corymorgan.com/the-war-on-cars-is-getting-real/

They want to double the cost of having a car. They intend to do so by increasing parking costs by 400 percent, adding toll roads, adding taxes to our fuels and adding taxes to our registration costs. Thankfully much of this is outside of their powers as municipalities for now but you sure can see why Naheed Nenshi salivates at the thought of having a municipal charter that would give him those powers.

They also want to make more automobile free corridors. Head on downtown in Calgary to see how well those sorts of spots are doing. Count the “for lease” signs along Stephen Avenue mall or have a look at the echoing and empty Eau Claire Mall which is in the heart of pedestrian paradise.

#23 Lobster Man on 02.03.21 at 3:11 pm

Not too long ago, John Horgan made a plead: that British Columbians should have compassion for the homeless people.
Over the weekend, this happened:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/woman-assaulted-by-men-posing-as-cops-has-died-vancouver-police-say-1.5294211
The suspects, if found guilty, obviously do not know how to spell “compassion”.
To the rest of folks living in Canada, Lotus Land welcomes you. Come and share/enjoy our rots!

LM

#24 FNAiks on 02.03.21 at 3:12 pm

From Statscan re Toronto population:
Despite still showing overall positive population growth, mostly due to international migration, the CMAs of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver continued to see more people moving out to other regions of their province rather than moving in. From July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020, the CMAs of Toronto (-50,375) and Montréal (-24,880) each posted a record loss of people as a result of these population exchanges.

#25 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:15 pm

#4 Dogman01

Same tactic with the “Anti-Racism”, instead of simply being intolerant of any racism they have just turned it around and adhere to group identity and are racist. It is a bizarre disconnect.

Pay close attention to some of what’s happening. This crowd is not just tolerating and promoting, but outright demanding segregation. Mostly by race, but all kinds of segregation happening. Look at creative industries. Only blacks are allowed to write black characters, or to voice them. What about the recently announced Ms Marvel TV show… Actress playing a muslim character is not muslim… Problematic. The one playing a pakistani character is half white… Problematic. It’s insane. The people so concerned about rights and equality, supposedly, don’t seem to realize the tenets of these fundamentals. Probably because they are cloaking their intentions on virtue. Probably. But what do I know.

#26 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 3:21 pm

#18 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:02 pm
Every Canadian who wants a shot will have one in their arm by the end of September – eight months from now, says the prime minister.

I believe that 0%, judging by trends and history of typical government competence and efficiency in any large scale project. Maybe by the end fo the year everyone who wants a shot will have their first one. Maybe. I’ll be generous and give it even odds.
—————————-
Last time I looked, it was Pfizer and Moderna that are incompetent and did not deliver as contracted.
If I order a fridge and they do not deliver on time, is it my fault now?
We in BC have been good and ready, but have not had a single promised dose for 2 weeks.
First, you were saying it’s a hoax, and now you’re complaining about the vaccine rollout.
Why would you need a vaccine to combat a hoax?
Get your act together.

#27 cramar on 02.03.21 at 3:27 pm

Just happened to drive by today that beautiful villa that sold 4 months ago on a country road in Essex County. Four acres, beautifully landscaped; 10,000 sq. feet with indoor pool; 5 car garage, all for the asking price of $1.5 mil. Don’t know what it sold for, but it was a bargain compared to a half-house in in the burbs of Pickering. Sigh! Now that was a REAL house! Perfect for WFH.

#28 joblo on 02.03.21 at 3:28 pm

Leaders? Authorities?
People actually believe Justin, Haidu, Tam, Freeland, O,Tool Ford, Kenney etc.
Come on man!

#29 EnnDeePea on 02.03.21 at 3:28 pm

Stock market up too – forward looking Garth.

#30 Rook on 02.03.21 at 3:29 pm

On a lark today, I decided to check the gold-and-blue guys to see what sort of mortgage I qualify for.

Median household income in Toronto is 73k or thereabout. Average is 103k.

I grossed 93k last year, no debts, been here a decade and have 200k saved up. Not bad for a lifetime’s work (so far). Not where ‘they’ tell me I should be (it should be about double that by now), but given I live and work in Toronto, have no debts, and rent at 37, not too shabby.

If I were to dump my entire life savings (which is my TFSA and RRSP, excluding my LIRA) into a down payment, qualify for the CMHC first time buyer’s loan, and get a 360k mortgage, I’d qualify for a…. drumroll please! $511k home.

What’s that get me? A garden shed in Huntsville? A 300 square foot bachelor on the same level as the Gardiner? I’d be a fool to dump a lifetime’s work into a concrete box in the sky.

But here’s the thing. That’s based on rationality. We don’t live in rational times.

We have a government seemingly bound and determined to print money until the ink runs out, with the leader’s claim to the office by birthright – he’s Canadian Royalty.

We have a nation with a 67.8% home ownership rate.

We have a household debt ratio of 176.9% as of June (this may have come down since).

We have $1.53 trillion in mortgage debt (same article as above, so this may have come down).

The bloody GDP of the COUNTRY was only 1.59 (ish) trillion in 2020.

If I hadn’t had the urge to gamble kicked out of me by my university job as a croupier (great job to have, by the way), I’d look at real estate as a surefire, can’t-lose bet.

You think the rulers of the nation are going to let 68% of homes get into trouble, with a potential default being basically the national GDP? You think any of the political class who wants to keep their job wouldn’t look at that fat voting bloc and not try to bribe their votes with government bailout? You think the government, with skin in the game on that first time homebuyer’s loan, would ever risk losing what’s owed? What do you think happens if the borders ever open up again and we get flooded with immigrants? It ain’t poor people immigrating here. What happens if the world starts burning and the wealthy elite look for a safe haven to offshore their money in Canadian real estate?

Counting on the government bailing out home-owners, because if housing collapses so does the country, is a bet I’d take any day of the week. Based on this logic, there’s no reason NOT to lever yourself to the eyeballs, buy the most house you can afford the monthlies on, sit on it for a year or two, then sell it for a 40 or 50% gain in 2024.

I just can’t rationalize doing it in Toronto – not that it matters since I’m priced out of the market anyways. I’m already running full speed just to stay stationary.

#31 I still think ... on 02.03.21 at 3:31 pm

this is the END of smorgasbords …

#32 Tron Light on 02.03.21 at 3:40 pm

A very positive post, Garth, and you may be right (and you also may be wrong). But the one thing nobody has been really talking about is the psychological impact the pandemic and the resulting lockdowns/restrictions has had on the public at large.

Think about it for a minute. How many times do you sanitize your hands now during the day? How many times did you do it before Covid? It’s reached almost OCD level. Even though things may be open, would you go to a concert or a hockey game where thousands of people are rubbing shoulders? Maybe you would, but would you be wearing a mask? Would you want the venue to post little circles 6 feet apart so you know where to stand?

We’ve been bombarded on a daily, even hourly, basis psychologically from case numbers to ads telling us to stay safe and save lives. And what happens if the flu returns after Covid in large numbers? Do we restart lockdowns, masking and social distancing because we’ve now been conditioned to these responses?

I personally think it is going to take a while, maybe a couple of years, before people to really start to behave normally.

#33 Comments! on 02.03.21 at 3:40 pm

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 3:09 pm
#11 Comments! on 02.03.21 at 2:32 pm
What can go wrong? They’re lying to us.

—————————–

2 weeks to flatten the curve
Masks don’t work
10’s of millions will die worldwide in 2020
Stay home while we vacation and laugh at you
Cerb type programs only temporary
Wal-Mart and Costco good/safe, mom and pop shop bad/dangerous

Yes they might have a tiny bit of a credibility issue.
——————————-
The liars are all gone now.
Biden is in, and the cases are coming down.
It’s a miracle, Trump would say.

———————–

Ya Biden and the gang, real honest bunch. Maybe his son will be in charge of vaccine distribution. After all Joe said that 600 million doses will vaccinate 300 Americans so his math is good.

Sigh…

#34 Lead Paint on 02.03.21 at 3:49 pm

Is walltiger still around?

Care to comment on this?

Women in China’s “re-education” camps for Uighurs have been systematically raped, sexually abused, and tortured, according to detailed new accounts obtained by the BBC.

You may find some of the details in this story distressing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071

#35 Dolce Vita on 02.03.21 at 3:50 pm

It will go one of 2 ways Garth:

#1. You’re way, the Optimistic view (which I agree with). Might make Sept all vax’d by the skin of our teeth. A lot of catch up football to play, chart of actual vs. req’d up to this week (partial for Week 5 and 3M behind schedule to vax 32M 15 yrs or older let alone 38M Beavers):

https://i.imgur.com/sz8fz0T.png

#2. The variants esp. the NEW UK mutant mutant (E484K and not the original mutant N501Y that has, currently ravaging the UK) and S. African variants continue to DIMINISH greatly antibody effects whether infected before or after being vax’d.

One thing that struck me from the Novavax and J&J data was this, comparing efficacy:

Overall: 66% J&J, 89% Novavax
Original China: 95.6% Novavax

UK: 85.6% Novavax
US: 72% J&J
Latin America: 66% J&J
South Africa: 57% J&J, Novavax 60% (49.4% w/HIV)

Note UK (N501Y not the new one), Latin America (Brazil variant a part of that) and South Africa variant data = diminished efficacy.

Vaccines lose efficacy in particular with the new UK E484K and South African variants. Moderna admits the same but no number yet (too busy making cash to admit the obvious). This article about Moderna vs. S. African and current UK variant N501Y (ignore the title, they say otherwise in the article):

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55797312

There are other articles like this. In fact Global News last night has a Virologist say they are very worried about the new UK E484K and S. African variants as they are diminishing immune response (evading it) or outright defeating the vaxes.

—————————

Hopeful me is routing for #1.

Logical me knows #2 is no laughing matter and may well outpace vaxing. If so, change 4th Qtr 2021 to 1st Qtr 2022 – provided new vaxes for the new mutant strains can be found.

Flip a coin.

#36 Ace on 02.03.21 at 3:55 pm

In a perfect world we could all WFH in our suburb mcmansions while our teenage children receive CERB permanently. We’ll all have 1% mortgages and when we need to make a big purchase for a boat or RV or something important like that we’ll just use the equity in our house. Or just get that 6 month mortgage deferral and use the savings for that down payment on the cottage you always wanted.

#37 Sara on 02.03.21 at 4:06 pm

#30 Rook

“You think the rulers of the nation are going to let 68% of homes get into trouble, with a potential default being basically the national GDP? ”

How would 68% of homes (I presume you mean home owners) get into trouble? Did they all buy at the top?

#38 willworkforpickles on 02.03.21 at 4:11 pm

A pent-up demand buying surge will happen later in 2021 in a form of denial among the masses of covid’s continued and continuing existence. Very likely to continue to surge in strength through 2022 and probably staying amongst us until the summer of 2023.
It (the virus) being gone later this year as many buy into is just crazy optimism.

#39 Steerage Misery on 02.03.21 at 4:23 pm

So T2 has now had Kanuckistan officially join developing nations!!…way to go T2!!… Ok maybe TurnerNation is not crazy!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-the-only-g7-country-to-take-vaccines-from-fund-for-developing/

#40 The Woosh on 02.03.21 at 4:24 pm

#6 Penny Henny on 02.03.21 at 2:16 pm
Heard that they might be changing the words to our National Anthem yet again. What now you ask?
There are going to remove the part about ‘glorious and free’ lest someone get the wrong idea.

——————————————

Nah…they’re taking out “Canada”. It’s all about post-nationalism.

#41 Captain Uppa on 02.03.21 at 4:25 pm

Superstar Cities are in Trouble (By The Atlantic)

Link: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/617897/

#42 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 4:42 pm

#25 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:15 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDriPJYn2mY

“If you want to make a current version of “Schindler’s List” you need to provide a racial breakdown of all your employees, does anyone see the irony in that?” – Bill Maher

“Racism does not have a good track record. It’s been tried out for a long time and you’d think by now we’d want to put an end to it instead of putting it under new management. ”

― Thomas Sowell

#43 Brian Ripley on 02.03.21 at 4:42 pm

“…more condo owners are bailing. Yup, rents are falling…” Garth

Yeah, rents are dropping in the high value markets (From Padmapper as of Jan 14, 2021):

CITY 1 Bedrm 2 Bedrm
Vancouver -9.3% -11.7%
Calgary +0% -2.2%
Edmonton +0% +1.7%
Toronto -20.4% -16.3%
Ottawa -2.1% -1.1%
Montreal -12.9% -13.9%

My Vancouver Housing Charts are up (JAN data):
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

All sector pricess are pressing up against the prior peaks. FOMO 2.0 is intact.

Res-Listings down 55% from JUN 2012 high
Res-Sales down 54% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 29%
Current Months of Inventory = 3

Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 3.6% from MAY 2017 Peak
Up 125% in last 10 years

Vancouver Town House Price
Down 1.1% from SEP 2018 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 53% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.9 Townhouses

Vancouver Condo Price
Down 8.1% from JAN 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 38% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.6 Condos

#44 Dolce Vita on 02.03.21 at 4:44 pm

Also why I have some worry is not just Moderna (and probably Pfizer also an mRNA vax) losing efficacy against the new variants is that also AstraZeneca apparently not so good for over 65 yr olds and Canada will probably approve it within the next couple of weeks.

Here in the EU, these countries will only use AstraZeneca as follows:

• France, Sweden (co-creator country for AstraZeneca), Poland, Germany: under 65 yrs of age.
• Italia: under 55 yrs of age.
• Probably most of the EU soon enough.

To quote Emmanuel Macron: “QUASI-INEFFECTIVE” on people aged over 65.

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-sweden-poland-recommend-prioritizing-astrazeneca-vaccine-for-people-younger-than-65/

Still it will help vaxing young Canadians to meet that end of Sept goal.

————

As for the UK, deaths there are still high even with their lockdown. Go here, scroll to the Deaths histogram (1449 deaths yesterday, 50% more than the next highest country Germany):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (select Europe, sort by New Deaths)

Above one of the phenomenons I have noticed is that cases drop by a lot, BUT NOT deaths – the UK story (e.g., same for Portugal w/Brazilian variant and Ireland w/UK variant, not the new one). I think it is the variants that are doing this – they are more deadly than the Original Covid.

And the UK are using AstraZeneca a lot more now which leads me to believe they are obfuscating the truth there. Their new UK variant, E484K, is basically scaring their medical people dungless:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900625

————————-

Expect more bad news out the UK if they do not contain E484K and if they start to use more AstraZeneca on their elderly than Pfizer – BAD for the rest of the World as well (as you all know, Covid loves to party and travel).

I remain hopeful.

See how Feb/Mar shake out. We should know by their end if 4th Qtr 2021 mostly rid of Covid thanks to vaxing or if early 2022 (variant effects will be better understood).

#45 Drinking on 02.03.21 at 4:49 pm

2023 sounds about right depending on how well we (the world) handles the variants. Many changes are going to happen but I am an optimist and agree with what Garth wrote; we are 1/3 there and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Good dump of snow last evening and the sun is shinning brightly this afternoon, beautiful!

#46 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 4:52 pm

#34 Lead Paint on 02.03.21 at 3:49 pm
Is walltiger still around?
———————————

China under the CPC has evolved away from Communism.

– Some free market,
– Big Corporations directed by the central Government
– Individual submits to the collective
– Significant racial overtones
– Leader in position life

I remember my first year Political Science, some people might see those characteristics sure resemble “National Socialism”, it is not communism anymore.

#47 willworkforpickles on 02.03.21 at 4:55 pm

The mortgage deferral cliff once thought to be the catalyst for future RE price declines has been mitigated practically out of existence…out of the spotlight. Unprecedented government intervention has assured this. Why would it end ?
Build up of unprecedented government debt continues to go on unabated. Why should it end ?

It becomes unprecedented government debt build-up now with much more to come that will provide the catalyst for future RE downturns when there is no alternative left but to force rate increases.
This will come…ignore the noise…it will come.

#48 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.03.21 at 5:01 pm

Toronthole? Empathy city?

YES!!!

Toronturds don’t steal your money to support incompetent sports franchises or shoot you or run you over aggressively because of lack of empathy – they do it because they do CARE – about themselves – and they are more IMPORTANT than you!

Big Difference!!

They DO care – about GTAHoles. PROUDLY!

#49 Steerage Science on 02.03.21 at 5:01 pm

Results starting to show impact in Israel of vaxing… long way to go but positive trends…

https://twitter.com/segal_eran?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

#50 The West on 02.03.21 at 5:08 pm

#37 Sara:

#30 Rook

“You think the rulers of the nation are going to let 68% of homes get into trouble, with a potential default being basically the national GDP? ”

How would 68% of homes (I presume you mean home owners) get into trouble? Did they all buy at the top?
———————————————-

Rook is pointing out that (fiat) we use to buy and sell has lost all intrinsic value. Whether you bought at the top, at the bottom, in the middle or, over a cliff – what difference does it make?

I mean, unfunded liabilities all in (and growing everyday by the hour) his point is valid. All that net-worth Canadians think they have is overvalued and essentially worthless. Debt is all that is left and, even Harper, (in an interview posted last week – I’ll link it below) points out that the bond market is basically maxed out at affordable interest rates. Where do we go from here? At a macro-look, Canadians (public and private) hold close to 8.6T of debt….our GDP in 2019 was 1.79T (I’m not even willing to wager what the GDP for 2020 was and Freeland won’t tell us).

It’s not just “68% of homeowners” who are in trouble – the foundations of this entire economy is under dire duress.

If you own your house my congrats – you’re marginally further ahead than most Canadians. It’s either a stroke of luck or, well earned in today’s world. But to simplify with a remark regarding the timing of someone’s purchase is, flatly, ignorant of the situation.

As Garth has pointed many times on this very blog, there is a great deal of pain on its way for all of us.

Harper’s Thoughts on Canada and the future:
(no offense Garth,it is for educational purposes only)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAKetLKjCP8

#51 Dolce Vita on 02.03.21 at 5:10 pm

Garth, AGREE the Markets will go nuts once we see the backside of Covid.

I mean the markets are going NUTS now.

I cannot fathom what they will do once IT is gone. My poor man portfolio (compared to your Survey Richie Riches):

– My TFSA Investment account +12.5% past 3 months n/incl Dividends
(ETFs)
– My other Investment account +46% past 3 months n/incl Dividends
(ETFs & Vax, Death, Streaming and Fertilizer stocks)

Today I was up 7.7% from yesterday, I know it’s daily so no real indicator of the future but that is one heck of a daily jump to me on a nothing day really in the Markets other than Bezos is kind of retiring.

—————-

The point being, as I am sure others here beat the crap out my meagre attempts at investing, is this:

WHAT on God’s Green Earth will the Markets do AFTER Covid if the above is happening now?

Go stratospheric?

From where I’m typing, it sure looks like it to me.

Yup, I agree on the Markets Garth…wholeheartedly and keep keeping us Plebes informed. Much appreciated by this Plebe.

#52 willworkforpickles on 02.03.21 at 5:14 pm

The debt curse will only grow punishingly worse for the indebted.
Savers will have their day in the sun again…but for a short while.

#53 MF on 02.03.21 at 5:27 pm

#37 Sara on 02.03.21 at 4:06 pm

Real estate is an expensive asset to own. Think of taxes, maintenance, repairs etc.

Real estate “investors” never mention these things with their massaged profit numbers.

For any gain to be had, the value of homes needs to continue rising indefinitely.

During a downturn (and a big one is coming), all homeowners will lose out. The more indebted, the more pain. And right now, that would be everyone (no one buys a 1.2 million dollar house outright, it’s all about monthly payments. Period). People who bought years ago? They all do the same thing and just go buy more properties (which are also more expensive by the way). Nobody does the smart thing and cashes out and downsizes. They always do the same thing and buy more. It’s like a drug. The amount of bullish sentiment is hilarious out there right now. Worse than the US in 07.

It boils down to only one factor in real estate: interest rates. The second they go up, the bubble pops over night.

MF

#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm

My wife just bought a painting… looks like it’ll be $6,700 in Canadian taxes to ship home to BC.

Doing our part to support the Canadian economy!

#55 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 02.03.21 at 5:30 pm

They are or soon will change the parameters of the PCR tests if they want cases to drop. Maybe lower the amplification factor they maxed out. All perfectly justifiable and rational just like how they adjust inflation numbers.

#56 Linda on 02.03.21 at 5:31 pm

So I’m wondering about the non-payment of rent. What if anything will occur once Covid is in the rear view mirror? Will those who skipped payment be expected to cough up the backlog, or do landlords get to write off those unpaid rents as bad debt? Ditto mortgages. I get that deferral occurred. As I understand it, the amounts deferred simply are added back to the end sum owed. Now I’m under the impression that the banks didn’t charge additional penalties for deferrals, but obviously they will eventually get ‘more’ in the form of interest due to the principle not being paid down in the original timeframe. However I’ve lost track on mortgage deferral end dates. Are people supposed to have resumed payments by now? Should we expect to see a wave of bankruptcies or repossession of assets due to non payment by the banks later this year?

As for vaccination, I hope it will occur for the majority of Canadians by September 2021. However, the supply chain issues that have emerged do not fill me with confidence that this goal will be met. One gleam of good news is the announcement that vaccines will resume production within facilities located in Canada. Hindsight is easy, but given the concerns raised with food security one would have thought that recurrent supply issues with vaccines/medicines even prior to Covid would have made the building of ‘in house’ production facilities a government priority. Call it insurance. We might never need it, but sure will regret not having it when disaster occurs.

#57 Pissy Fortune Teller on 02.03.21 at 5:34 pm

Dilraba Dilmurat (迪丽热巴)

One of the most celebrated young actress, model in China. She has over 100 million adoring fans on Chinese social media platform (Weibo). Her earnings easily surpasses $10 million (Cdn) year in and year out.

Guess which part of China she is from? And which ethnicity she is?

Read below, and maybe Weep (?):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilraba_Dilmurat

#58 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:35 pm

#51 Dolce Vita on 02.03.21 at 5:10 pm

– My TFSA Investment account +12.5% past 3 months n/incl Dividends

– My other Investment account +46% past 3 months n/incl Dividends

Today I was up 7.7% from yesterday…

———-

You might want to get someone to doublecheck those percentages before you start spending the money. Just sayin…

#59 Blobby on 02.03.21 at 5:38 pm

#19 Carmela Rotiroti “Nothing is permanent”

Pretty sure death is..

#60 Mike from Canmore on 02.03.21 at 5:40 pm

#25 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:15 pm
Look at creative industries. Only blacks are allowed to write black characters, or to voice them. What about the recently announced Ms Marvel TV show… Actress playing a muslim character is not muslim… Problematic. The one playing a pakistani character is half white… Problematic. It’s insane.

*****
It’s almost as if they don’t know what the word “acting” means lol. Truly bizarre times we are living in. Not so much interesting times, bizarre times, and possibly getting to dangerous times soon. 0% reality, 0% logic.

#61 Dolce Vita on 02.03.21 at 5:45 pm

#49 Steerage Science

No it isn’t.

Go to Worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Same deal as the UK now. Cases down, deaths not down. They are in a strict lockdown, so no surprise there.

That Twitter guy, he likes to be creative. Passed off medial data on vaxing saying 500K study, 50% efficacy 1 jab which was 1/2 true or less.

There were 2 studies. One 200K people study looked cooked saying with Poisson distorted distribution stats 50% (Maccabi HMO data) other 200K study (Clalit HMO) said 33% less.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-well-does-the-vaccine-work-israels-real-world-stats-can-be-globes-guide/

He looks good on paper but there is such a thing as national hubris.

Also, not widely publicized, Israel getting Pfizer doses for trading clinical data from vaxing. So you know, figure that out on your own.

Bet he never Tweeted that now did he?

———————

Right now, a disappointment, Manaus Brazil has 76% of the population that has been infected with Covid, they have antibodies.

Deaths, cases still on the rise there.

Means Herd Immunity is > 76%.

The Israelis, UK and others will come up against that barrier and won’t they be surprised.

#62 TurnerNation on 02.03.21 at 5:47 pm

#32 Tron Light let me tell you a story or two. This post is totally fictional and for entertainment purposes only!!

Of two “Haircutting Professionals” who WFH – for a year – in a Big City.
Dozens of people weekly, for a year; everything as usual. And not a case to be seen.

Three bartenders. Went live as soon as able in early Summer into the Fall shutdowns. No face coverings enforced. Served many hundreds each month who came by choice. Easy speaking in a small tight place, off the radar. Not a case in sight.
Not among the customers, their family or friends, nor then and friends.
Enough data points? Oh yes the age group for all involved <45 yrs old.

#63 Mike from Canmore on 02.03.21 at 5:53 pm

#46 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 4:52 pm
I remember my first year Political Science, some people might see those characteristics sure resemble “National Socialism”, it is not communism anymore.

*****
I don’t know about “national” socialism. Haven’t they said nationalism Bad, populism Bad, patriotism Bad, and post-nationalism Good? Are we sure we’re not looking at global socialism instead? every country, equally tyranised, as one, under government. So help us all.

#64 Kat on 02.03.21 at 5:56 pm

I live downtown Vancouver and it has been back to the same old since just after the early lockdown and prices for condos etc have never gone down. Maybe T.O has had a lull but definitely not over here. My job takes me all over the lower mainland and every city is busy. Seems the bubble never did pop. Oh well,just goes to show history doesn’t always repeat itself.

#65 mark on 02.03.21 at 6:23 pm

Every Dog has its day, this may be what Ryan was talking about several months ago prefs.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/preferred-shares-will-benefit-from-rising-rates-and-supply-shortage-slater-s-grieve~2132327

#66 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 02.03.21 at 6:28 pm

Can’t wait for the Gentlemen’s Club down the street to open again.

Just trying to do my part by sending some young ladys to college.

#67 yorkville renter on 02.03.21 at 6:30 pm

The murmurs I hear are condo investors are getting back in because prices dropped and they expect a return to the high-rent days… Anecdotally, I know of two condo investors who are now looking at buying more

#68 Drinking on 02.03.21 at 6:32 pm

#50 The West

Great interview. Logic over emotion!

#69 Lawless on 02.03.21 at 6:35 pm

Disagree with you on schools not being reshuttered. My thinking is that schools reopen in mid-February (in ON anyways) and are closed again by April with rampant spread of the new variants (such as b117). B117 is still at R=1.1 even with all current measures in Ontario. March and April are likely to be some of the darkest months, but I suspect from May things will finally start getting better (assuming pharma gets its supply chains running properly).

#70 NOSTRADAMUS on 02.03.21 at 6:46 pm

Garth, In response to the ending of your summation . “What can go wrong? They’re lying to us”. The question being, who are they? Please elaborate. There are many false conspiracy theories floating about , perhaps you can identify these entities so that we can be on guard. Better safe than sorry.

#71 S.Bby on 02.03.21 at 6:53 pm

#56 Linda

Mortgage deferrals seem to be a non-issue from what I can see. I thought there was supposed to be a flood of houses dumped into the market late last year by people who couldn’t make their payments, but that never happened. My guess is that most people who deferred payments simply used that cash for something else.

#72 KLNR on 02.03.21 at 6:56 pm

@#59 Blobby on 02.03.21 at 5:38 pm
#19 Carmela Rotiroti “Nothing is permanent”

Pretty sure death is..

depends on your belief system really.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 7:10 pm

As for vaccination, I hope it will occur for the majority of Canadians by September 2021. However, the supply chain issues that have emerged do not fill me with confidence that this goal will be met. One gleam of good news is the announcement that vaccines will resume production within facilities located in Canada. Hindsight is easy, but given the concerns raised with food security one would have thought that recurrent supply issues with vaccines/medicines even prior to Covid would have made the building of ‘in house’ production facilities a government priority. Call it insurance. We might never need it, but sure will regret not having it when disaster occurs
———————————-
Sure, we could all prepare better for future calamities.
Apparently, the dikes are too low in Richmond.
The Chinese gonna invade Canada etc.
If we’d know the future, we all would be Billionaires.
As for being behind in vaccinations:
I’m actually glad we’re behind.
Keep in mind these vaccines are still not fully approved.
They still should be used for “emergence use” only.
The Swiss just refused to give authorization to the British AstraZenica vaccine.
And I trust the Swiss, they are very particular.
Better be safe, than sorry.
In the meantime, exercise, eat healthy, relax and mask up
and do your part to get this thing under control.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 7:17 pm

#71
Linda, I agree that we should have our own medicine production facilities in Canada.
We had, but then people complaint, about medications costing too much.
Then we outsourced them to India and China.
As Garth said the other day “be careful what you wish for”

#75 Long-Time Lurker on 02.03.21 at 7:29 pm

Zoolander 3. Script update.

The angry crowd of unemployed Swamp Mud Munchkins march up to the Tin Man and Cowardly Lion but, in a shock to them, the Tin Man steps forward and starts swinging his axe at them.

Tin Man “Shawn Jerry” cries the battle cry of the neo-feudalists: “Build back better! Build back better!”

As much as the Tin Man loves ketchup, the Swamp Mud Munchkins are only stunned by his blows. The Swamp Mud Munchkins fall down around him but their hard heads and thick skins prevent them from being anything more than stunned by the Tin Man’s rather blunt brain. I mean, blade.

The Swamp Mud Munchkins, though, far outnumber the Tin Man and begin to push him back.

Cowardly Lion “Rich O’Donnell”: “Run! Run!” He takes off running. The Tin Man being outnumbered falls back and makes a run for it, as well.

Some of the Swamp Mud Munchkins see Prime Minister Zoolander and his fancy suit. They yell:

Swamp Mud Munchkins: “He’s one of them! Get him!”

Prime Minister Zoolander, shocked, quickly turns and runs after the Tin Man and Cowardly Lion.

#76 You know val on 02.03.21 at 7:38 pm

If the United States can vaccinate a hundred million people in 100 days or a million people in one day how long will it take us to vaccinate 36 million people Mr Sock???…ya but wait variant 1, 2, 3..its a real shot show coming right up your ally.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.21 at 7:50 pm

@#73 Phd Ponzie

“In the meantime, exercise, eat healthy, relax and mask up
and do your part to get this thing under control.”

++++

Dr Bonnie?

#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm

#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm
My wife just bought a painting… looks like it’ll be $6,700 in Canadian taxes to ship home to BC.

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.21 at 7:55 pm

@#46 Dogman1
“I remember my first year Political Science, some people might see those characteristics sure resemble “National Socialism”, it is not communism anymore.”

++++

Did you even read the link “Lead Paint” provided?

Horrific.

#80 Dr V on 02.03.21 at 7:55 pm

https://www.cheknews.ca/greater-victoria-home-price-new-record-1-2-million-740643/

Anybody heard from “Victoria Real Estate Update”?

#81 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.03.21 at 8:00 pm

Hot take: “due to the variants”, a negative test, vaccination card, and a 10 day quarantine will become a permanent fixture of international travel. Permanent.

The reality is it is because it will help bring down GHG emissions caused by Canadians to a level deemed “acceptable” by the Trudeau-Freeland cult.

#82 what could go wrong ? on 02.03.21 at 8:02 pm

Massive inflation, massive debt. Canada is drowning in it. We already have the growing massive debt and inflation is just getting rolling ..see lumber, beans, corn etc..etc.

Lets get those interest rates rising before the economic fallout ruins the results of the vax.

Silver and Bitcoin should do great.

#83 Gary C on 02.03.21 at 8:02 pm

Re Endbridge Line 5: Recent pole from a Michigan newspaper, 95% of people support shutting down
the pipeline.
This will have major consequences for Ontario & Quebec,
who did not want Energy East built, let’s see how Trudeau
handles this one.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.21 at 8:04 pm

@#57 Pee Eff Tea
“Guess which part of China she is from? And which ethnicity she is?”

+++

Does anyone really care about ANOTHER , brainless, vapid, movie “star” from anywhere on this planet?

The only thing outstanding about your “star” is she isnt covered in tattoos…..yet.

I am constantly amazed at the social media “hero” worship for American, Canadian, British, Chinese, whatever,…… actors that are…..more than likely, about as useful as a bag of broken hammers.

Clothes horses that can memorize lines and spew them out like a university professor……
“They know not what they say but are well paid to say it.”

Perhaps this ‘star” will become too big for her britches and say something “Leader for Life” Xi will decide goes against “Xi rules on Chinese Characteristics” and she will disappear for several months… to be re-educated……..like billionaire Jack Ma….?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/20/tech/jack-ma-appearance-video-intl-hnk/index.html

#85 dr talc on 02.03.21 at 8:07 pm

#28 joblo on 02.03.21 at 3:28 pm
Leaders? Authorities?
People actually believe Justin, Haidu, Tam, Freeland, O,Tool Ford, Kenney etc.
Come on man!
——-
No one believes them. Ford? T2?
charter rights?
they disregard existing law
mandatory q-tip up the nose??

Quarantine Act
S.C. 2005, c. 20

Assented to 2005-05-13

Screening technology

14 (1) Any qualified person authorized by the Minister may, to determine whether a traveller has a communicable disease or symptoms of one, use any screening technology authorized by the Minister that does not involve the entry into the traveller’s body of any instrument or other foreign body.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/q-1.1/FullText.html

#86 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.03.21 at 8:15 pm

Toronthole? Empathy city?

YES!!!

Only 3,853 tickets issued for psychopathic driving behaviours in an entire week there!

http://torontopolice.on.ca/newsreleases/49130

#87 Dr V on 02.03.21 at 8:24 pm

Latest market stats for VI not incl Victoria

http://www.vireb.com/assets/uploads/01jan_21_vireb_stats_package_64847.pdf

Yikes……

#88 Tron Light on 02.03.21 at 8:29 pm

DELETED Anti-vax.

#89 Don Guillermo on 02.03.21 at 8:53 pm

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.21 at 7:10 pm
As for vaccination, I hope it will occur for the majority of Canadians by September 2021. However, the supply chain issues that have emerged do not fill me with confidence that this goal will be met. One gleam of good news is the announcement that vaccines will resume production within facilities located in Canada. Hindsight is easy, but given the concerns raised with food security one would have thought that recurrent supply issues with vaccines/medicines even prior to Covid would have made the building of ‘in house’ production facilities a government priority. Call it insurance. We might never need it, but sure will regret not having it when disaster occurs
———————————-
Mexico just launched a site for all residents over 60 y/o to register for vaccination. It immediately bogged down and is now going through rework. Can’t help thinking the Oilers 50/50 IT team had something to do with it.

#90 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm

#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away on 02.03.21 at 5:28 pm

My wife just bought a painting… looks like it’ll be $6,700 in Canadian taxes to ship home to BC.

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

————-

Robert Wyland

#91 DON on 02.03.21 at 9:06 pm

Given it was supposed to be a new world by April’ I am less reluctant to believe any projections. It was supposed to be over last September and by Christmas we would be normal.

On observation…most people have less RAM in their memory. Great processors but no ability to remember context.

@Kara History doesn’t repeat but it sure does rythme.

#92 DON on 02.03.21 at 9:10 pm

previous post correction
@Kat not Kara

Things always seem to happen over night especially to those who ignore the signs.

Key take away Overnight.

#93 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.03.21 at 9:12 pm

What can go wrong? They’re lying to us.

^ This.

Also, new variants that are more contagious, more deadly and vaccine resistant can take hold. And let’s not forget that this “vaccine” is still experimental… unforseen vaccine side effects could begin to appear in several months.

We are in unchartered territory, so lots can and most likely will go wrong. It doesn’t help that the politicians are incompetent, lying to us, or both.

Never forget that at the beginning of the pandemic, they told us that masks were uneccessary. Turns out that they lied to prevent a run on PPE.

#94 Kiril Peev on 02.03.21 at 9:13 pm

Two interesting graphs for Ottawa: all properties are condos.

Shows a clear discount for apartment style condos vs rows, semis and detached.

Condo apartments: discount in the sale price vs. list price.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kirilpeev_ottawarealestate-ottawalife-ottawabusiness-activity-6762898878858719232-TqVp

Condo rows, semis and detached: premium in the sale price vs list price.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kirilpeev_ottawarealestate-ottawalife-ottawabusiness-activity-6762899535065939968-1IPx

#95 VicPaul on 02.03.21 at 9:21 pm

#42 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 4:42 pm
#25 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:15 pm

“Racism does not have a good track record. It’s been tried out for a long time and you’d think by now we’d want to put an end to it instead of putting it under new management. ”

― Thomas Sowell

*********

Thomas Sowell – great man!
An economics disciple/friend of Libertarian Milton Freidman and one of the most logical/intelligent speakers I’ve listened to – his ideas are based on data…not feelings.
The black culture had this powerful intellect speaking empirically-based wisdom since the late 50’s…and they ignored him to follow loud-mouthed race-baiters like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton….(head-shaking wtf).
All you guys that identify as Liberal/Democrat supporters – this is your ideology’s doing. (welfare state, et al). Watch the Biden train-wreck ensue.

Often in this world, you get what you play for.

M57BC

#96 KLNR on 02.03.21 at 9:25 pm

@#88 Tron Light in the head on 02.03.21 at 8:29 pm
DELETED Anti-vax.

You’d think this guy would have clued in by now.
DELETED a badge of honour for him maybe.

#97 KLNR on 02.03.21 at 9:27 pm

@#86 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 02.03.21 at 8:15 pm
Toronthole? Empathy city?

YES!!!

Only 3,853 tickets issued for psychopathic driving behaviours in an entire week there!

http://torontopolice.on.ca/newsreleases/49130

lol, thanks for all the updates.
you have a bit of a complex about Toronto eh.

#98 Dogman01 on 02.03.21 at 9:37 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.21 at 7:55 pm

Did you even read the link “Lead Paint” provided?

Horrific.
———

Yes – that’s why I am suggesting the CPC is closer to National Socialism than Communism.

Like the 1930’s German Type of National Socialism.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071

#99 Ustabe on 02.03.21 at 9:38 pm

I wonder, reading all these posts, which country most of you actually live in. Sure doesn’t seem to describe mine.

My daffodils have poked a little green out, I filled my wood box for what very likely could be the last time this season.

I honestly can not think of any restaurant, bar, independent store that has closed during this time but I can think of a few of each that have opened. In fact my wife and I are discussing which restaurant we are going to tonight. Greek? The hole in the wall Korean place or old fashioned West Coast fish and chips?

How the bulk of you manage to get into the mind space you seem to be saddens me. I just finished a small task for the local economic commission folks, helping a recent military retiree tune up his business plan.

He wants to join the ranks of the many mow, blow and go lawn care outfits. Attractive to a younger man with a significant military service pension, no boss, make a little money, be social, get outdoor exercise.

I told him to call his business The Marquis de Sod…we will whip your lawn into shape. He just looked at me, didn’t understand the reference at all. Youth.

Anyway, look for a new lawn cutting service next spring called LawnOrder. My second choice.

Anyway, those of you in the ugly place try upping the Metamucil dose and a glass full of 50/50 vodka and orange juice to wash the Xanax tablets down in the morning sets you up pretty good for the day.

#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm

#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm

#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

You just gave SA an orgasm.

#101 Marty Mc Fly on 02.03.21 at 10:06 pm

The rollout of vaccines in Canada so far has been quite slow, yet I read something like 300 million doses have been purchased, probably a pre empive action. How is it all going to play out? Think back to 2008 when the supply of oil couldn’t keep up with demand and it went to well over $100 a barrel. It wasn’t long before there was a blitz of new production, a lot from fracking. The result? Prices dropped again in 2014 due to oversupply.

I think a similar thing will happen with the vaccine. There will be a frantic break the door down race to get enough until most of the population is vaccinated. After that, there will be an oversupply. Let’s hope that oversupply gets to third world countries that have had trouble getting enough vaccine. That’s important, not only for these countries but everyone in the world. Why? Because it makes sense to try and eradicate this virus before it has a chance to mutate to more deadly forms the vaccines won’t work on.

#102 Neo on 02.03.21 at 10:10 pm

#69 Lawless on 02.03.21 at 6:35 pm
Disagree with you on schools not being reshuttered. My thinking is that schools reopen in mid-February (in ON anyways) and are closed again by April with rampant spread of the new variants (such as b117). B117 is still at R=1.1 even with all current measures in Ontario. March and April are likely to be some of the darkest months, but I suspect from May things will finally start getting better (assuming pharma gets its supply chains running properly).

***********************

Your just talking out your azz. Where did you get an R naught 1.1 of the UK variant? Also, how is R= 1.1 50-70% more infectious than Covid 19 in Ontario when we were R=1.4 in September?

#103 Al on 02.03.21 at 10:10 pm

Dr. Fauci says that vaccines will stem the variants;
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

#104 devore on 02.03.21 at 10:11 pm

#26 Ponzius Pilatus

I think you have me confused with someone else. That’s ok, I won’t hold it against you.

#105 Spectacle on 02.03.21 at 10:13 pm

#25 devore on 02.03.21 at 3:15 pm
#4 Dogman01

Same tactic with the “Anti-Racism”, instead of simply being intolerant of any racism they have just turned it around and adhere to group identity and are racist. It is a bizarre disconnect.

Pay close attention to some of what’s happening. This crowd is not just tolerating and promoting, but outright demanding segregation. Mostly by race, but all kinds of segregation happening. Look at creative industries. Only blacks are allowed to write black characters, or to voice them. What about the recently announced Ms Marvel TV show… Actress playing a muslim character is not muslim… Problematic. The one playing a pakistani character is half white… Problematic. It’s insane. The people so concerned about rights and equality, supposedly, don’t seem to realize the tenets of these fundamentals. Probably because they are cloaking their intentions on virtue. Probably. But what do I know.

*****************************
Oh… now Trudeau is going to have to find a new Hslloween Costume I guess.

#106 BK on 02.03.21 at 10:27 pm

Rents up almost 25% in Langley from a year ago….

#107 the jaguar on 02.03.21 at 11:16 pm

@#83 Gary…..
It would be interesting to see if that same poll number (95%) might reflect a similar percentage of people in Ontario & Quebec blissfully unaware of this news story/initiative.
Wonder why May 1st was chosen as the drop dead date.? Guess winter is assumed to be over …..
Mercy.

#108 The real Kip (Ret) on 02.03.21 at 11:29 pm

So if every Canadian that wants a vaccine shot will get one by September then why are we building a facility that can punch out 2 million doses of vaccine per month coming online in a year? Hmmm, maybe it’s for the 5th wave.

#109 Danger Dan on 02.03.21 at 11:40 pm

I really want to love Toronto but each time I go down there I’m reminded of how much of a craphole it has become, which is saying something considering how much of a craphole it used to be!

Still, it was a lot better when there were less people. There was a time when it still felt like the warm bosom of home, in spite of its warts.

Now it just feels like an airport – disassociating, uninviting, and prohibitively expensive.

Good luck to anyone who decides to settle there, you’re going to need it.

#110 DON on 02.04.21 at 12:24 am

https://financialpost.com/opinion/william-robson-debt-danger-ahead-if-interest-rates-outpace-growth

#111 Keith on 02.04.21 at 12:32 am

Timing matters. Don’t pretend it doesn’t, even for the highly educated and qualified.

https://hbr.org/2018/09/people-who-graduate-during-recessions-earn-less-money-but-theyre-happier

#112 Faron on 02.04.21 at 1:19 am

#87 Dr V on 02.03.21 at 8:24 pm

Victoria

SFD up 10.8% YoY based on benchmark. Based on median sales price up 20.4% with sales up almost 50%.

Condos: 83% more units sold than last year but price pretty well flat.

Sales to listings stands at 62%

Inventory of SFD half what it was Jan, 2020.

Time to sell for SFD half what it was Jan, 2020. For condos a bit longer than last year.

“The luxury home market continues to significantly outpace previous years,” adds Langlois. “For example, in January 2020, four homes over two million dollars sold. This January, twenty-five sold…”

#113 Yes they're lying on 02.04.21 at 1:27 am

Less vaccines will be coming than they are telling us, and we won’t reach herd immunity until sometime in 2022.

Read the story here, and check out the map near the bottom.

https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/

Be prepared.

#114 DON on 02.04.21 at 2:20 am

Stocks slip as investors eye Chinese policy tightening prospects

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN2A4022

#115 Annek on 02.04.21 at 3:25 am

2021 will see a surge in Covid cases, especially,in March.
Keep dreaming if you see the population vaccinated by Sept2021. The Geriatrics will see vaccine in Sept.2021.
Try winter in Jan 2022 or later for the rest of the. population.
People seem to think things will be like the first wave. They are getting complacent. They went out, wore a mask, washed their hands and did not catch it.
No, the first wave was caused by travellers.
This second wave is caused by people around us. That is exponential. Much easier to catch, especially with the new variant. People will get sicker as well.
What a joke that we will be making our own vaccine in a building that is not yet built until July and Health Canada will approve months later? One must realize that a building scheduled to be completed in Canada never finish on time. Especially a high functioning lab and 2021 will see a surge in Covid cases, especially,in March.
Keep dreaming if you see the population vaccinated by Sept2021. The Geriatrics will see vaccine in Sept.2021.
Try winter in Jan 2022 or later for the rest of the. population.
People seem to think things will be like the first wave. They are getting complacent. They went out, wore a mask, washed their hands and did not catch it.
No, the first wave was caused by travellers.
This second wave is caused by people around us. That is exponential. Much easier to catch, especially with the new variant. People will get sicker as well.
What a joke that we will be making our own vaccine in a building that is not yet built until July and Health Canada will approve months later? One must realize that a building scheduled to be completed in Canada never finish on time. Especially a high functioning lab and manufacturing facility foCovid vaccines,
Have our motley bunch of leaders decide.
Who is going to administer these vaccines.
Do we have enough skilled staff to administer resources to our population as well?

Yeah.people moving back to condos.
wait till they find out their neighbours are govt approved 14day quarantined travellers provided condos next door by our govt.
They are going out, no mask in hallway and outside their units.
I am hoping for a better 2021 than 2020. But I will believe it when I see it.
Fed Govt bumbling has never been higher.
Who puts an army general in charge of the vaccines.?
Would it not more appropriate for a hospital pharmacist managing the storage and delivery and recordkeepimg of these Vaccines as this is what they do regularly, as part of their job .

#116 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 5:04 am

I’m not sure why the “vaxed by September” line is being promulgated. As much as I want it to be true, only politicians are saying this. I tend to believe the eggheads at the Economist studying the data – their motivation is identifying where future opportunities lie, not just look good for an electorate. They did an excellent live webinar yesterday (“The great divide: global access to a Covid-19 vaccine”) presenting their analysis with projected rates of world vaccination that convincingly suggests Canada will not be vaccinated until mid-2022 earliest. It had, y’know, charts and graphs and stuff but I’m sure the Libs are well on top of the hard facts, as always. The vaxes will balance themselves, so to speak.

Canada is the only G7 nation without domestic production capability. Jumping on the Novavax bandwagon is optics at this point, it won’t even be producing anything until the end of the year. Or if it’s like any other fed procurement project – never. How’s them F35’s and Type-26 frigates coming along?

Yet Ponzi says he’s actually glad Canada is behind. Amazing.

And on the day of a post about empathy, how “Canadian” is it to take from the poor because mismanagement means you weren’t able to provide for yourself? The Liberals have ordered enough vaccinations to put shots in every Canadian 4X over, but they’re still dipping into the Covax pool. One of the world’s wealthiest countries exploiting the poorest – how very progressive. Nothing new of course, just usually done a lot more quietly behind the scenes. But desperate times, after all.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/feb/03/canada-to-receive-significant-haul-of-covid-vaccines

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-boosts-its-vaccine-order-by-tapping-into-supply-meant-for-poor-nations

I suppose it fits for a nation full of people grabbing whatever benefit of socialism they can without regard for whether they need it or not. I think back to Garth’s post early in the outbreak about the smug golfers with 6-figure incomes bragging about collecting CERB. Or businesses taking non-repayable loans intended for existential survival just to add to their bottom line. It’s definitely ingrained in the national psyche to try and grab as much free stuff as you can, screw everyone else. I guess it would be called shameful back in the day when shame was still a thing. /shrug

Trudeau still tries to wrap himself in the Lester Pearson humanitarian mantle but I think this latest move has opened a few eyes. The Guardian calling out Canada is a bit like CNN writing something negative about Kamala Harris.

#117 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 5:20 am

Just in case anyone else knows people in the same boat, I heard from the colleagues trying to get back to Canada to attend to their ill family member. Turns out the solution will be for them to fly to the US and drive up. The new hotel quarantine scheme seems to assume the virus, much like BillyBob, prefers to travel by air.

Added bonus: flights to JFK are far cheaper than to YYZ. That’s significant with multiple travellers.

It all drips with irony. The family of 4 were all vaccinated in December in the UAE. While Canada scrambles to close the barn doors behind the long-gone horses, the family now has to face a 97% unvaccinated population. /smh

#118 Phylis on 02.04.21 at 8:06 am

#106 the jaguar on 02.03.21 at 11:16 pm
@#83 Gary…..
The poll should have included the tax burden for the following lawsuits.

#119 Wrk.dover on 02.04.21 at 8:07 am

#108 Danger Dan on 02.03.21 at 11:40 pm
I really want to love Toronto but each time I go down there I’m reminded of how much of a craphole it has become, which is saying something considering how much of a craphole it used to be!

Still, it was a lot better when there were less people. There was a time when it still felt like the warm bosom of home, in spite of its warts.

Now it just feels like an airport – disassociating, uninviting, and prohibitively expensive.

Good luck to anyone who decides to settle there, you’re going to need it.

—————————————–

I drove a $100 car out of the GTA towing a $100 trailer with some $1000 of trades related machinery with $100 in my pocket back in 79. Best I could do back then, and I’m glad it was good enough.

M67NS

#120 Phylis on 02.04.21 at 8:14 am

Oh, there were a few noting that prefs were up the other day, is it the baking in of reset rates that will be higher?

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 8:30 am

@#115 BillyBob

Yep the “vaxed by Sept” doesnt mention which year…

I’m thinking Trudeau’s budget will be a few hundred billion more of cash hand outs and wonderful politically correct social programs for the homeless, the drug addicted, the minorities, the gender confused, THEN the elderly care homes, the daycares and oh right, …the taxes…….goin up.

The budget wont balance itself and Trudeau will be a distant memory before this financial reckoning hits the wall.

As an aside.
Seems a homeless pair of drug addicts home invaded a 78 year old woman’s house in Vancouver and in what the police are describing as a “horrific crime” beat her so badly she died.

And when officers went to the nearby homeless encampment to arrest one of the suspects they had to call for back up due to the angry crowd of transients trying to block them from executing a search warrant.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/02/03/strathcona-residents-shock-brutal-murder/

Oh, and FYI…… both suspects have lengthy criminal records involving robbery, violence, etc.

Invisible Vancouver mayor Kennedy Stewrat issued a statement that “All 3 levels of govt need to deal with the homeless situation…”

#122 IHCTD9 on 02.04.21 at 8:40 am

#98 Ustabe on 02.03.21 at 9:38 pm

…I told him to call his business The Marquis de Sod…we will whip your lawn into shape. He just looked at me, didn’t understand the reference at all. Youth.
____

Maybe try one a little newer:

Devo-ted Lawn Care, “We’ll whip it good”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIEVqFB4WUo

#123 Tron Light on 02.04.21 at 8:50 am

#96 KLNR on 02.03.21 at 9:25 pm

“You’d think this guy would have clued in by now.
DELETED a badge of honour for him maybe.”

Nope. I’m not an anti-vaxxer but I value information and different perspectives so I’m just trying to get information out there so people can make their own decisions.

Garth, or you, apparently do not want to let people think for themselves.

After you get dosed you can think all you want. – Garth

#124 Penny Henny on 02.04.21 at 9:01 am

#80 Dr V on 02.03.21 at 7:55 pm
https://www.cheknews.ca/greater-victoria-home-price-new-record-1-2-million-740643/

Anybody heard from “Victoria Real Estate Update”?

//////////////////

V R E U where are youuuuuu?

#125 IHCTD9 on 02.04.21 at 9:02 am

#109 Danger Dan on 02.03.21 at 11:40 pm
I really want to love Toronto but each time I go down there I’m reminded of how much of a craphole it has become, which is saying something considering how much of a craphole it used to be!

Still, it was a lot better when there were less people. There was a time when it still felt like the warm bosom of home, in spite of its warts.

Now it just feels like an airport – disassociating, uninviting, and prohibitively expensive.

Good luck to anyone who decides to settle there, you’re going to need it.
___

I thought Toronto was cool in the 80’s – today not so much. I go once and a while, but worthwhile trips are getting fewer and farther between.

Outside those who are well off, Toronto will continue recycling its population. In with the new from other parts of the world, out with citizens who were born there/have done their time – and are looking for something better. It’s probably getting close to 10 years since international immigration has provided 100% of Toronto population growth. If not for these, Toronto would be shrinking, just like New York, Chicago etc…

#126 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:19 am

#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———-

You just gave SA an orgasm.

———-

The question didn’t, but then I realized the tax was worth three of your cars, and kaboom!

#127 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:39 am

#99 Ustabe on 02.03.21 at 9:38 pm

Re: Lawn care

————

Hey, that was my first foray into business. In university after the Army, my bro and I started a lawn and snowcare business hiring uni students as labour. Very quickly had mowing contracts everywhere, then moved into installing lawns, light excavation, walls, garden work, concrete.

One of my employees finished his degree (in business), bought me out (all equipment plus $200 for goodwill) as I skedaddled to engineering, and turned it into a serious professional business. And it all started with three secondhand lawnmowers…

This can be a lucrative business if properly managed. If your friend hires uni students who mow shirtless, his business will skyrocket.

#128 milly on 02.04.21 at 9:39 am

Yayy shout out to Berczy Park :) The local knitting group usually gives the dogs scarves in the winter but this year they needed a little more protection.

Also two fun things to look for next time, the lone cat and the birds!

#129 Sara on 02.04.21 at 9:42 am

#126 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:19 am
#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———-

You just gave SA an orgasm.

———-

The question didn’t, but then I realized the tax was worth three of your cars, and kaboom!

======================

What a pathetic little man is he who gets off boasting about his wealth.

#130 Dharma Bum on 02.04.21 at 9:44 am

Vaccines are the new toilet paper.

Big panic that there’s a supply shortage.

Empty shelves in the short run.

More than enough in the long run.

Then again, maybe that’s because toilet paper is more important than vaccines.

I like the good stuff. Charmin comes to mind. Ahhhhhhhh.

#131 Comments! on 02.04.21 at 10:10 am

#103 Al on 02.03.21 at 10:10 pm
Dr. Fauci says that vaccines will stem the variants;
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

——————————————–

Gosh darn it, is there anything that these new vaccines CAN’T do??? Like who needs actual data anymore??? They can probably do your taxes too.

Wouldn’t put too much stock in what Fauci has to say. And especially Tam for that matter. We are far better off praying for the best. Or you know, actually have evidence that they are working once hundreds of millions of us are jabbed and enough time has gone by, like normal science.

#132 Tron Light on 02.04.21 at 10:27 am

DELETED Anti-vax.

#133 saskatoon on 02.04.21 at 10:35 am

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 10:39 am

@#129 Sara

Jealousy doesnt change the fact that….he’s rich.

:)

Online, nobody knows you’re a dog. – Garth

#135 Squire on 02.04.21 at 10:43 am

#116 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 5:04 am
——————————————–
Well said BillyBob. How pathetic sock boy Jr is. He’s unfit to lead with big boy pants. I’m gobsmacked how Canadian’s cannot see through it.

Even Stephen LeDrew sees through it
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/stephen-ledrew-canada-is-paying-the-price-for-trudeaus-lack-of-leadership

That says alot

#136 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 10:45 am

#129 Sara on 02.04.21 at 9:42 am
#126 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:19 am
#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———-

You just gave SA an orgasm.

———-

The question didn’t, but then I realized the tax was worth three of your cars, and kaboom!

———-

What a pathetic little man is he who gets off boasting about his wealth.

———-

I love it when you talk about my wealth.

#137 Faron on 02.04.21 at 11:25 am

#129 Sara on 02.04.21 at 9:42 am

#126 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:19 am
#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———-

You just gave SA an orgasm.

———-

The question didn’t, but then I realized the tax was worth three of your cars, and kaboom!

======================

What a pathetic little man is he who gets off boasting about his wealth

Yep. And one who sees it a failing to not waste money on a car.

#138 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 11:25 am

Art can be a good investment…. With a few caveats, of course. It needs to be a recognized artist with either broad or regional cult-status appeal, pieces in prominent places such as National Gallery, governor’s house, etc, and purchased for 30% less than listed (that’s the gallery game). Also buy when the artist is old because value skyrockets when they croak.

Lots of fees and charges when buying, though. Quite a racket.

#139 Bill on 02.04.21 at 11:38 am

Go Wexit, we can’t leave fast enough.
You can keep socks…the CCP puppet.
https://m.facebook.com/106986744032475/videos/3343921058961946/

#140 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 11:54 am

#185 Faron on 02.03.21 at 11:43 am
#176 Penny Henny on 02.03.21 at 10:40 am

#156 BillyBob on 02.03.21 at 6:45 am

Sorry, TL;DR. Sure it was a reel knee slapper tho.

================================

If you didn’t read it why do you keep texting asking what day my flight gets in?

#141 Hairhead on 02.04.21 at 11:56 am

Just as aside: I keep track of US COVID deaths on one website, ncov2019.live, for consistency

Jan 4 – 362,000 deaths to date in U.S.
Feb 4 – 462,000 deaths to date in the U.S.

One hundred thousand dead in one month. And it’s likely an undercount.

Our society’s response to the pandemic, though it will cause us some problems, is entirely appropriate for a civilized country.

#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

Good grief can practically feel the bitter envy emanating from Faron and Sara about SailAway’s painting. Why does one’s good fortune make others so miserable?

The saddest part is, it’s obvious both the enjoyment Saily is having and the anxiety it causes the other two are both real.

I know which I’d rather experience. Even Ustabe’s boasting-masquerading-as-rueful-lamentation schtick is preferable.

As the song says:

“We’re here for a good time
Not a long time
So have a good time
The sun can’t shine every day.”

Especially in Victoria.

#143 Bdwy on 02.04.21 at 12:06 pm

Jealousy doesnt change the fact that….he’s rich.
,…………….

Why then the modest/dumpy hawaii place?

#144 Squire on 02.04.21 at 12:06 pm

#139 Bill on 02.04.21 at 11:38 am
Go Wexit, we can’t leave fast enough.
You can keep socks…the CCP puppet.
https://m.facebook.com/106986744032475/videos/3343921058961946/
——————–
Maybe soon our CCP puppet will be exposed for what he really is. This depends too on the media. He seems very well protected by the MSM

#145 Barb on 02.04.21 at 12:08 pm

I’m disappointed we old folks haven’t even been contacted about getting a vaccine.

Details of vaccine rollout from this American acquaintance are impressive: (cut ‘n pasted from her blog).

“The state of Arizona has been allowed to give covid vaccines to those 65 and older but it is left up to each county and facility as to whether they will or won’t. The two state run massive vaccinations sites in the Phoenix area were the only sites allowing registration for those of us 65 and older. There are some smaller hospitals such as in Benson and Willcox plus pharmacies which will vaccinate people who are 65 and older but there are no appointments available. None of the large hospitals in Tucson are offering the vaccine to 65 and older individuals so Phoenix it was.
What an operation!! The appointments are scheduled every three minutes, mine was at 10:09. We drove onto the site where masses of volunteers directed us into lanes. At one stop I presented my appointment paperwork, they logged me into their system using tablets, wrote my registration number on the windshield and I was on to the next stop where I answered health questions and we received another mark on the windshield.
Next stop was the actual injection and a time, fifteen minutes from the injection time was written on the windshield. We crawled along until reaching the final tent and we were released–in less than 30 minutes from when we drove onto the stadium grounds. An amazing operation!! A news article indicated the site at State Farm Stadium was staffed with volunteers from Blue Cross Blue Shield.”

She received Pfizer vacc, husband got the Moderna. Before leaving they were given appointments for second shots.

Too bad I can’t post her photos. Huge parking lot with hundreds of cars approaching canopied areas, lane attendants gowned/masked. Incredibly well organized!

And we Canadians?
Still waiting on T2 to quit waffling as usual.
He couldn’t run a popsicle stand on the beach!

#146 Diamond Dog on 02.04.21 at 12:16 pm

What can go wrong? They’re lying to us. – Garth

I don’t think they (gov officials & civil servants) know entirely what to expect.

Take for example, the Covid19 African variant. It’s well known at least on this blog anyway, that people of color tend to have much lower blood serum levels of Vitamin D and as a consequence, a class 4 virus like Covid19 will adversely effect Africans more seriously. Africans will experience longer duration and severity of Covid19 due to lower Vit D levels. What does this increase the risk of as the viral replications are exponentially increased in their hosts? Numbers of mutations.

When we talk about variants or mutated strains, lets not forget that we are talking about mutations within the same original strain. There is still only one strain defined as having an unchanged Serotype. What we are seeing in terms of mutations is highly centered around the mutations of it’s surface antigens which is why over time, vaccines and antibodies from prior infections will fade. We knew vaccine efficacy would drop and we are seeing evidence of it now.

Yes, this current strain can mutate to become more contagious. Yes, the strain can mutate to become more deadly. But rarely does it ever do both. It’s either one or the other and since new variants are becoming more dominant, they are becoming more contagious, but not more deadly and this is a key point.

There will be “experts” who point to numbers and tell us that Covid19 is becoming more deadly “for effect”, to hype a book etc., but what these same experts miss is the Vitamin D equation. It is the sunshine vitamin. We get less of it over winter. Serum levels of ViT D do drop off over winter and bottom in Feb/March. There is a direct correlation to lower Vitamin D levels and higher death counts and any expert who by this time hasn’t looked at what Vitamin and mineral deficiencies compromising immune systems are doing with the proliferation of Covid19 simply is not an expert.

(like the pair of “experts” on Bill Maher who missed this on Friday, on top of telling Bill that the virus had a 90% chance of coming from a Chinese lab. There is simply no way one can watch the video below and believe a word they said):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7YuedwTnA

This blog has been made aware in steerage well in advance, that the longevity of the vaccine in question would be around 2 years (2 flu seasons if taken in October, spanning 18 months, maybe 30 but efficacy would be in the 30%’s) and the vaccine would have less efficacy as the numbers of mutations pile up, just like with influenza. This is what we are seeing now with the African variant, its just a variant with higher levels of mutations that has hit the scene faster than the rest but it hasn’t dominated in numbers so, nothing major to worry about.

The major worry, what keeps true epidemiologists up at night, is a strain mutating into a second Serotype. If this were to happen, everything changes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serotype

What we would get with a second distinct strain with it’s own Serotype is a strain that present vaccines and antibodies developed from past infections would be useless against. This would create a pandemic 2.0 and would likely be worse than the first as anyone with antibodies from the first strain are likely to be more adversely effected (think Original Antigenic Sin).

We know how a second strain defined as having a distinct Serotype from the first strain would occur. The virus jumps, say, from an infected worker of a mink farm, infects millions of minks and the virus mutates to reinfect the prior infected worker with mixed DNA from human and Mink and as a consequence, a second strain is created with its own separate Serotype. If government testing and tracing can’t arrest it, the second strain proliferates and it’s pandemic 2.0.

There’s no way governments can know for sure that this can’t happen in this wide world of ours. I’m betting against it happening myself, governments the world over know what to look for but there’s a chance that it could and because there’s a chance, no one can state definitively, at least the well informed, that Covid19 is behind us.

At best, we can claim that the disease has become “endemic” through vaccines, meaning the end of our current pandemic but that’s enough for economies to recover and normalcy to return… until the next one.
If and when there is another pandemic, we will be ready like Asia was. Masks, social behavior, tech, leadership, true experts in the field, we’ll be looking back on what we did wrong and right and learn from our mistakes.

#147 Sara on 02.04.21 at 12:30 pm

#136 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 10:45 am
#129 Sara on 02.04.21 at 9:42 am
#126 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 9:19 am
#100 Faron on 02.03.21 at 10:01 pm
#78 Sheesh on 02.03.21 at 7:52 pm
#54 Sail Away

The tax is $6700?! Who’s the artist?

———-

You just gave SA an orgasm.

———-

The question didn’t, but then I realized the tax was worth three of your cars, and kaboom!

———-

What a pathetic little man is he who gets off boasting about his wealth.

———-

I love it when you talk about my wealth.

———————–

No doubt driven by a deep need for excessive admiration, as with all anti-social personality disordered people.

#148 Sara on 02.04.21 at 12:40 pm

#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm
Good grief can practically feel the bitter envy emanating from Faron and Sara about SailAway’s painting. Why does one’s good fortune make others so miserable?

======================

Not at all. I know several very wealthy, empathetic people who I like, admire and am happy for. And I feel quite blessed with respect to my own particular financial situation.

However, sociopaths, whether rich or poor have a tendency to make other people miserable — that’s what they thrive on.

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm

#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

Good grief can practically feel the bitter envy emanating from Faron and Sara about SailAway’s painting.

OMG, hardly. Speak for yourself. I’ll leave that kind of coin to a bank or broker to defend, thanks. Luxury material goods are anchors. Ask yourself if you would rest as easily in Praha if you had six figures worth of painting hanging on your wall in an empty house back in Canada? Now ask the same question of the six figures in your bank/investment account? Right?

And reading your grouchy post today:

…smug golfers with 6-figure incomes bragging about collecting CERB. Or businesses taking non-repayable loans intended for existential survival just to add to their bottom line…

It’s funny that you are coming to Sail Away’s defence. Dude crowed about taking a grant and is now crowing about a gross splurge and you are snuggling up to him maybe because Keene Reader made you look like a hack by comparison?

Awww, did I hurt your feelings by not reading your post yesterday? I hear it was pretty funny. And to think some think I’m a troll?

#150 jess on 02.04.21 at 12:47 pm

push /pull
-add in new party where perhaps the “fringe” members join
look for the overuse of the word “freedom”

========================
contrast and compare!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/western-australia-covid-19-lockdown-canada-approach-1.5896504

#151 Penny Henny on 02.04.21 at 12:50 pm

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 10:39 am
@#129 Sara

Jealousy doesnt change the fact that….he’s rich.

:)

Online, nobody knows you’re a dog. – Garth
//////////////

Hear that Fartzy? You have a face for radio.

#152 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:53 pm

#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

the anxiety it causes

As Sara says. And, I’ll add that noting a dumpster fire floating down a river of poo doesn’t quite cause the anxiety you are thinking. Our comments are akin to saying “Hey, look at that dumpster fire on a river of poo. Gross.” From which point one naturally walks away from the poo river and carries on with their day.

#153 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 12:59 pm

#99 Ustabe on 02.03.21 at 9:38 pm
I wonder, reading all these posts, which country most of you actually live in. Sure doesn’t seem to describe mine.

My daffodils have poked a little green out, I filled my wood box for what very likely could be the last time this season.

I honestly can not think of any restaurant, bar, independent store that has closed during this time but I can think of a few of each that have opened. In fact my wife and I are discussing which restaurant we are going to tonight. Greek? The hole in the wall Korean place or old fashioned West Coast fish and chips?

How the bulk of you manage to get into the mind space you seem to be saddens me.
**************************
Admittedly I haven’t really paid any attention to other provinces’ restrictions or weather, but we’ve got a foot of snow and restaurants have been shut(again) for over a month with several independents closing for good.
Where do you live that it’s all sunshine and rainbows?

M41AB

#154 Scott Darrens on 02.04.21 at 12:59 pm

Garth, I see what you are saying about interest rates are coming true. Today, February-4-2021, US 30 year treasury yields nearing 2%, 1.94% now and Canada 30 year treasury yields over 1.5%, 1.52% now.

Those long term 20 years+ bonds mutual funds and bond ETF’s are down alot over the last 10-11 months when interest rates were near history lows.

#155 Faron on 02.04.21 at 1:05 pm

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.21 at 10:39 am

@#129 Sara

Online, nobody knows you’re a dog. – Garth

This line always makes me think of this meme:

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/38510603/i-have-no-idea-what-i-am-typing.jpg

‘twould be hilarious if Garth did an ARIN lookup on the IP Sail Away is posting from and found it to be an ISP in northern Manitoba. I don’t think it is, nor do I think Garth has that much time to waste nor gives the comments that much thought. But he has the power.

Nanaimo. – Garth

#156 Faron on 02.04.21 at 1:09 pm

Or this one for The Jaguar:

https://gfycat.com/chubbyselfreliantgarpike

Oh, for you EM holders, you may want to watch the strength of the USD.

I gotta get to work. Luckily the commute looks clear today. Only traffic is a creaky old Basset Hound.

#157 Faron on 02.04.21 at 1:28 pm

#117 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 5:20 am

Turns out the solution will be for them to fly to the US and drive up.

Cool, so they are avoiding regs that aren’t even in place yet? And if they are vaxed, why do they care who is and isn’t? Oh, they care about infecting others? Ah, yes, that’s why they are hopping on a plane to the US and driving north so they can drag their infectious selves across as much landscape as possible to be with non-vaxxed family in this trying time. This all makes total sense.

#158 Barb on 02.04.21 at 1:28 pm

#146 Diamond Dog

Fascinating post, thanks for that!

#159 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:42 pm

#149 Faron on 02.04.21 at 12:46 pm
#142 BillyBob on 02.04.21 at 12:03 pm

OMG, hardly. Speak for yourself. I’ll leave that kind of coin to a bank or broker to defend, thanks. Luxury material goods are anchors. Ask yourself if you would rest as easily in Praha if you had six figures worth of painting hanging on your wall in an empty house back in Canada? Now ask the same question of the six figures in your bank/investment account? Right?

***********
But… insurance?
” Theft/damage insurance for art added onto your home or renter’s insurance policy generally costs in the range of $1-$3 annually per $1000 of coverage (less if you have a good security system in place in which case costs can be lower)”

If you enjoy looking at art (and that’s kinda the point of it) then it’s not money wasted. If someone has enough in their portfolio that adding more wouldn’t float their (sail)boat then art is a reasonable purchase.

I’m a pretty frugal dude but if something sparks joy, even if it isn’t the best investment, I’ll buy it.
To me, the real goal with money is to gain the freedom to do exactly that.

#160 Don Guillermo on 02.04.21 at 2:36 pm

#159 SoggyShorts on 02.04.21 at 1:42 pm

I’m a pretty frugal dude but if something sparks joy, even if it isn’t the best investment, I’ll buy it.
To me, the real goal with money is to gain the freedom to do exactly that
************************************
Bingo! Nailed it.

#161 Chris Hayden on 02.04.21 at 4:05 pm

Scott Darrens, people forget that not too long ago, 10 to 30 year US and Canada bond yields were in the mid to high 3%, 3.5% to 3.8%+ to 4.25%.

This is easily going to happen in the next 24 to 36 months, 2023 to 2024 3.6% to 4.3% mortgage rates will be there. As for government bond ETF’s, bond mutual funds provincial ones in Canada are down 5% to 7%+ from 15 to 30 year maturities since April last year 2020.

#162 Rick Stevens on 02.04.21 at 4:53 pm

Chris I agree with you on bond yields especially about longer term ones. The US 30 year treasury bond yields will be 3% in the next 12 months, 4% in the next 24 months.

#163 Bill on 02.04.21 at 7:02 pm

Sale Away
How much loot is wealthy?

Maybe Garth can answer that?
The yard stick is always moving.
Just want to know where I stand….my stick is small… makes it look bigger :-)

#164 TKWOODS on 02.04.21 at 9:13 pm

There has been alot of …I’ve just moved to …could you tell me about local dentists …coyotes…its a long list.
Having grown up in rural Ontario I recognize the romanticization of country life and the suspication by long time residents…after 8 years here I am a drop in the bucket in terms of being a part of the old community…which I understand having been raised in the land of Sir John A. …my point?
Much like yours the other day…no point
I see alot of kids over their heads in debt…thankfully not my kids …they have never asked for a cent once they left home … thanks to Scottish/Irish aversion to debt his father (mostly) instilled in them.

#165 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 11:22 pm

#163 Bill on 02.04.21 at 7:02 pm
Sale Away
How much loot is wealthy?

Maybe Garth can answer that?
The yard stick is always moving.
Just want to know where I stand….my stick is small… makes it look bigger :-)

————–

That is an unanswerable question

#166 Bill on 02.05.21 at 9:12 am

#165 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 11:22 pm
#163 Bill on 02.04.21 at 7:02 pm
Sale Away
How much loot is wealthy?
Maybe Garth can answer that?
The yard stick is always moving.
Just want to know where I stand….my stick is small… makes it look bigger :-)
————–
That is an unanswerable question
———-
No it ain’t.
I’m super wealthy and I’m not talking all monetarily.
Both side of family and 100s of them are awsome. Sadly to little time to keep up with all of them. Then all my great neighbours and tenants.
I treat them well and it comes back.
Also Everyone loves a guy with a backhoe!

Fridges and freezers are full…lots of fresh BC seafood. Bars stocked and there’s always a party as my house.
That’s wealth.
Then there’s money…10 mil and rising fast is a bonus… Being able to write cheque for $600,000 or $700,000 anytime… that won’t bounce.

Tomorow a new 36ft 5 slide 5th wheel is game on. A repo for $25,000 and I can rent it out on one of my RV pads for $1600 month.
Yesterday I just brought home a new car for the wife. Nope actually not new… a 1 year old Nissan Leaf Plus. New was $55,000. I imported it from WA state all in $31,000 CND with 9000 kms. I don’t need to inflate Musks ego any more :-)
I let the fools take the hit on overpriced stuff them scoop up the deals.
Being a cheapo helps. Over time that’s where you can accumulate wealth.
Getting more for less is a great way to go. That’s the tilt on this bog.
I bought all my RE cheap.
So yes there is always an answer…just everyone’s is different.
This is just mine.

#167 Gravy Train on 02.05.21 at 2:29 pm

#165 Sail Away on 02.04.21 at 11:22 pm
“That is an unanswerable question.” It reminds me of this question: If you remove one grain at a time from a pile of sand, when does it stop becoming a pile? :P