Is this the perfect storm?
Maybe. Probably. In most cities, yeah. Early-2021 could bring the orgiastic, hedonistic, emotional apex of an already-vibrating housing market to a shuddering climax. (I require a small rest after writing that.)
Why? And how is this affecting otherwise rational people?
Five things to keep in mind. First, CBs have crashed rates to save us from Covid, so mortgages are 1.5%. Or less. It’s historic. This means people can borrow scads more money than a year ago, pay a fat premium for a house and still have a monthly equal to, or less than before they upgraded. Second, the whole WFH/nesting/get a puppy thing has created a brand new level of house horniness in Canada. Last month, for example, was the best December ever. In the middle of a pandemic and recession.
The virus in fact, has had a lot to do with romping sales and prices. People want detached houses with front doors on the street, back yards and driveways. No elevators, parking garages, lobbies, garbage rooms or dodgy neighbours in dim halls. The demand is insane.
Fourth, FOMO. Now that real estate jumped by double-digits nationally and by OMG-levels in the GTA and parts of Van, everybody wants in. At whatever the price. And, fifth, there is fear of financial markets with stocks at seemingly high levels and the Hoodies running rampant (more on that below). So, real estate – as inflated as it may be – looks (like me) safe and tasty.
All this is leading some people to lose their perspective. We have two reports.
“I’ve been reading your blog since you started writing it,” says Cheryl. “I’m not sure exactly when that was, but I can tell you that my daughter was in pre-school and now she’s in University. So, you could say a lifetime! I’ve learned a lot from your posts through this lifetime and appreciate your daily commitment to your blog.
My husband and I live in Vancouver and have rented through bringing up our kids. Our combined salary is around $280, 000 and we’ve managed to save a significant amount of money over the years, in the vicinity of 2 million. I’m 55 and my husband is 50. So, we’re considering making a real estate purchase and I thought I’d reach out to you and see what you think. Here are the details:
Our daughter is in Victoria in residence. For the next 3 years, she’ll be renting a place there with friends, which is what got us thinking about looking at an investment that could cover the costs. These are the numbers we’re thinking about:
House for 1 million: 6 bedrooms, $700 x 5 renters = $3500/month (that doesn’t include our daughter’s “rent”).
We’re hoping that we’d at least save on her rent if the market stays flat. If the market increases, we’d make a profit as well. If in 3 years the market is weak, we could wait a bit and rent it out to other university students. What are your thoughts? Is this a crazy idea or is it something you would recommend we consider?
Okay, Cheryl, pour some merlot and cool down. This is a really, really, really bad idea. You didn’t build up a $2 million liquid retirement portfolio by being emotional and short-sighted. Don’t start now.
Your kid’s rent isn’t justification for investing a million in what will turn out to be a frat house. Taking half your nestegg and putting it into a dodgy place (all that a mil will buy in that town these days) constitutes risk. That money, invested B&D, is worth at least $60,000 a year. The frat house rent of $42,000 will turn into thirty grand or less after taxes and overhead. Plus you may need professional help to fish iguanas out of the toilet. If the rent becomes part of your income (to expense the costs) then it’s whacked at your marginal rate. Ouch. Plus the property has no PR exemption when you sell it, so any gains are taxable (again at your marginal).
So, you can take an annual $30,000 loss, incur higher personal taxes and see your retirement finances put at risk, or tell your daughter to work part-time at the liquor store and pay her own rent. Is that a hard choice?
Now here’s confused Natalie in Ottawa. “I read your post on a daily basis and I’m hoping you will help me with making the best decision.”
The market here is hot right now with low inventory and houses selling for much more than asking price. We are considering listing in May and renting for a few years until we figure out exactly where we want to relocate. The problem is that rentals are extremely expensive and I expect to pay roughly $3,000 per month for a house of my taste.
How can this be justified? From no mortgage to paying all this money in rent. Are we crazy? I realize we will have about $800,000 in the bank but does it really make sense? How can I invest securely and cover the rent I will be paying? My fear is that home prices will not go up forever but Ottawa is fast growing and the demand is currently not keeping up. Should I keep my house for another 2 years just in case? I really wish we could see the future.
Also we have a combined gross income of $200,000. My husband is 55 years old with no pension but $400,000 in stocks. I am 50 with a Government pension which I will take a 60. Any advice would be appreciated!
Selling now makes sense because (a) you want to relocate anyway in retirement and (b) family income of $200,000 can’t begin to be replaced by your DB pension or sustained by eating into the $400k that hubs has. If the market is hot and prices climbing, bail this spring. The point of investing is to buy low and sell high. This is high.
Can the market jump further? Of course. It could fall, too. Or flatline. You have no idea what the situation will be in two years, nor should this guide your decision. Greed is not a strategy. As for $3,000 in rent, it’s a piffle. Take the $800,000 in house money, add in the value of the stocks (too volatile to be 100% equity going into retirement), and a $1.2 million middle-of-the-road portfolio should throw off at least six grand a month. So you (a) live for free and (b) add another half-million to your retirement pot by the time you hit sixty. How is that a bad outcome?
Ensure you fill up your TFSAs and put most of the funds in a joint non-registered account for income-splitting and estate-planning purposes. If he resists, tell us.
Well, it looks like we’ve run out of space to yak about the Hoodies. Tomorrow, I guess. We’ll just leave this here…
GameStop stock, 52-week price chart
207 comments ↓
Well, its good to see there are some “savers” out there.
Keep up the good work.
Avoid the high expense and head ache of owning/renting.
Keep plugging away at those savings.
Come back next year ( after another 12 months of lockdowns and vaccine delays) and review your options.
Maybe. Probably. In most cities, yeah. Early-2021 could bring the orgiastic, hedonistic, emotional apex of an already-vibrating housing market to a shuddering climax. (I require a small rest after writing that.)- Thor Turner.
///////////////////////////////////
Did you hear about the guy who works at the local adult video store?
He was excited about his job.
Then he was really excited about his job.
Shortly after, he was really, really excited about his job.
Then he was really, really, really excited about his job.
After that, he wasn’t that interested for the next couple of hours…
M46BC
I thought about buying a couple shares this morning at $147. But I didn’t. I’m just here watching the fun.
I realize it’s just a formatting error on Garth’s part, but it is way funnier to imagine that Cheryl is having a rare moment of lucid clarity in the final paragraph of her letter and starts referring to herself in the 3rd person.
with all those WFH newbie day traders, GameStop will go higher and higher until they run out of newbie day traders…
I think Michael Burry will hit the sell button any day now.
Stonks!!!
Darn, I was looking forward to Garth’s take on this. It is hilarious to see the Hedge Fund Managers crying their eyes out, but darn a lot of these small players will lose money.
They will learn a lesson, I guess…
Sweet! Thanks for the GameStop stock tip, Garth. I’m going to buy some right now from my HELOC.
Normal markets taking a 2% dump while my stupid little NOK purchase is up 50%.
The stock market is stupid.
GameStop, Yikes
A bricks-and-mortar retailer whose revenue dropped 30% Y/Y to October 2020.
Obviously a Strong Buy, just like that 60-year-old tear down in Scarborough for $1,250,000
ITS A MAD MAD MAD WORLD
hard to make sense of anything these days – all I know is you better be very careful about certain decisions before pulling the trigger
GameStop is a pump and dump with a short squeeze thrown in. Same P&D with BB. Enter at your own risk. Look at the Reddit community for what’s happening.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/reddit-users-gamestop-stock-soaring-upending-market/story?id=75513249
#157 SHANE GALLANT on 01.27.21 at 1:00 pm
Garth, so much for your prediction of being vaccinated by September 2021. Now we have to wait till mid 2022.
I only believe what my prime minister tells me. – Garth
//////////////
Oh my! The zombies ate Garth’s brain.
“a shuddering climax” reminds me of an old girlfriend.
I bought GME today, I bought AMC today, I bought EXPR today. I thought to myself. Man I could lose about $4500. Then I looked around and saw on my drive to work that a dumpy townhouse sold for over 1.4million (Vancouver). I concluded that I would rather lose $4500 trying to get out of blue collar than make the monthly on that townhome :)
#Holding
“…orgiastic, hedonistic, emotional apex of an already-vibrating housing market to a shuddering *climax.”
-FOMO obsequious.
-throbbing (onomatopoeia)
*noun or verb? I read verb.
THAT was SO good that even Garth’s neighbors had a cigarette.
Too funny Garth. I howled when I read that.
—————————
I liked Reddit Revenge of the Hoodies today. Out to bludgeon the nose of the Hedge Fund Call people that thought they were playing in their own Private Idaho…private no longer.
As one of those Hoodies observed today on Twitter:
“Thanks #GameStop stock riggers. If the entire financial system is going to be corrupt and lawless, I want it to be corrupt and lawless in a fun way.”
And as a Hoodie ‘wanna be Lawyer Mom Tweeted:
“Hedge Funds do not get bailouts.
Let the free market decide, remember?”
Funnier than heck is on the Twitter #Gamestop page, you have Gamestop Ads trying to recruit people, give them “guest care”, etc.
A little TLC appreciation always a good thing…AND
Just another Covid 19 day on Wall Street.
Things look a little red on BNN is this the beginning of a correction because of vaccine unavailable, variants,
business slowdown etc.
TD Ameritrade & Robinhood have raised margin requirements to 100% on GameStop and AMC Entertainment. They know this will end in tears for some investors/gamblers.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestop-amc-trading-is-now-being-restricted-at-td-ameritrade-11611769804
That graph is a hoot! FOMO has hit the stock market.
I see that there are 300,000 dual Canadian citizens in Hong Kong who have to make a choice; Canadian or Chinese. I have no doubt the vast majority will take Canada and tens of thousands will flock to Richmond BC where I reside. I have been busy looking at places to move to without traffic lights. I think I will hold on for awhile. Let the bidding on my place commence.
Gee when I was a kid we spent out time working on our motorcycles, and souped up beaters.
Today the kids spend their time driving hedge funds into receivership.
Attention all Shorts : Beware of the youngsters, they are fearless, they are coming for you, and you are all one tweet by Elon away from oblivion.
It astonishes me that anyone could have been reading this blog since its inception (almost 13 years ago) and still think the ‘frat house’ plan has any merit whatsoever.
————————————–
I consider myself lucky to be living in a downtown Vancouver low-rise apartment. It is special. There are no internal hallways, but instead external breezeways.
My door opens to outside air. There is almost no need to use the elevator because there’s a stairwell right next to my suite (in which I never encounter anyone) and it’s only 20 steps to street level.
Nor is there a “garbage room”. The recycling and garbage are all outdoors at the side of the building. (Yeah, occasionally a street person makes a mess digging through it, but hey, this is the big city).
There is no need to enter the building’s lobby at all unless one wishes to use the elevator. The parking garage has barred openings to outside air and natural light. It can be accessed through an external door.
Two bedrooms, two bathrooms, en-suite laundry and a balcony view of False Creek. All for a piffling $3000 per month.
I used to own two detached homes (one recreational). Now I own no real estate at all, except through a REIT.
Been here 8 years. Never looked back. It’s an excellent place to wait out a pandemic.
Hey Garth, isn’t artificially inflating stock prices illegal?
I can’t be the only one who thinks the vaccination setup is back to front, can I?
Part 2, should be what is currently being done by local and national governments.
Part 1, should be the World Health Organization procurement of vaccines and mobilizing them to wherever spots in the world are the most vital for overall worldwide health, like South Africa.
You wanna pay a little now, or a lot later…
M46BC
We are under a dictatorship.
I’m worth 8 million going up daily..hNot that it matters but what does is how to get there from zero. I know some stuff and T2 is nobodies friend.
I don’t have to worry about food mortgages but my kids and family do. I’m going all out on this piece of shit.
https://www.rebelnews.com/rcmp_visit_reporter_at_home_for_publishing_story_critical_of_trudeau_government
Can anyone link a source for 1.5% mortgage rates? I am renewing soon and would like some ammo to negoriate with.
Who exactly is offerring these rates?
GAMESTOP: I love it.
Classic, Stick it To The Man.
(The Man being the derivatives-gambling hedge fund honcho/s.)
I am also liking the market response.
We need this wee whoosh.
I have a lot of cahunas to “invest.”
#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.21 at 2:10 pm
Well, its good to see there are some “savers” out there.
Keep up the good work.
#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.21 at 2:10 pm
Well, its good to see there are some “savers” out there.
Keep up the good work.
Avoid the high expense and head ache of owning/renting.
Keep plugging away at those savings.
Come back next year ( after another 12 months of lockdowns and vaccine delays) and review your options.
Keep plugging away at those savings.
Come back next year ( after another 12 months of lockdowns and vaccine delays) and review your options.
___
Why is it good? Saving is no longer rewarded. First GIC rates tumbled and now stocks are being manipulated by a bunch of gamers just barely (if it at all) out of ther parents’ basements. Saving has become a mugs game.
“Optimism the economy will quickly accelerate once the pace of vaccinations picks up.”
I have been Tweeting Trudeau et. al. near daily or when he makes one his outlandish “The Emperor has no clothes” remarks reminding him that as of Week 3, 2021 they are WAY behind in vax doses (1.7M).
But I’m fairly certain that by Mayish? Novavax and J&J (in a month?) will backfill any Cdn vax shortfalls and surely to God by then Pfizer will have FINALLY revamped its BE plant and made good on doses to Canada. AstraZeneca too but with the ongoing brouhaha here in the EU, who knows how that saga will end?
The only SWORD of DAMOCLES I can see is Covid 19’s newest progeny (the “variants”) infecti people far faster than they can be vax’d or worse, make the vaxes less efficacious.
Barring that Doomsday scenario, FOMO on Canada. You’re keeping many a shopkeeper afloat, Retail Trade is up and IPSO FACTO see a brighter future.
Not a lover of RE but it is helping the Cdn economy out a lot and not just $$$, psychologically good (vision of a better future). Use common sense as Garth keeps writing about (incl. today) and Canada should come out of the Pandemic like gangbusters.
Fingers crossed.
That 10 yr we all watch had a great day on it’s way to 2% didn’t it?
It will be under 1 AGAIN likely tomorrow unless the PPT works hard over night like they usually do.
Houses only go UP, like STAWKS in this ponzi.
#24 Bill on 01.27.21 at 3:16 pm
We are under a dictatorship.
—
No, you aren’t. The dude tweeted that he had, and was immanently releasing, CLASSIFIED material. He was informed, in a pretty friendly exchange, that this is ILLEGAL by LAW ENFORCEMENT. He wasn’t arrested and he used fear tactics to make it sound like he and his family was threatened. Anyone can knock on your door dude especially RCMP when they want to chat. Get over yourself.
https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/o-5/page-4.html#h-385122
This is great fun watching 20-year olds with stimmy cheques banding together bankrupting Wall Street hedge funds. I wish I’d heard of WallStreetBets previously, but I’m happy for the average joes making bank. Good on them.
#17 S.Bby
True enough and good read on your part (incl. where they do their planning).
Though, the deed is done. Pretty WILY bunch, rabble rousers.
They realized that “99%” protesting outside of Wall Street accomplished nothing during the Great Recession.
A coup d’état within the electronic confines of Wall Street. Throwing their weight around for the sheer exhilaration of it all. New Kid on the Block Syndrome.
Lord knows what else they will do (though you let us know where to look and find out).
——————————
Not so sure I liked what they did, swoop in on stocks with questionable fundamentals, artificially raise their price just to give a few Call traders a bloody nose – and of course, making themselves a gob of money in a few hours while they are at it. Wild West stuff.
See what My Liege thinks tomorrow, ought to be good. As for me, not so fond of what they did. Swashbuckling is OK in the movies, but with other people’s money involved…I ‘dunno, not so fond of that.
It’s meddling writ large and in the end all they accomplished was to fatten their wallets. Not very SJW of them, pastiche do gooder interventionism.
Score one for the Hoodies with Robin Hood accounts on Reddit. Delivered a body blow to one of the biggest speculators on Wall Street. They are losing their minds on the Business news networks over this. People making money online over the Billionaire investors who are now, hypocritically calling for more regulation. Great story. Can’t wait for tomorrows blog.
Maybe. Probably. In most cities, yeah. Early-2021 could bring the orgiastic, hedonistic, emotional apex of an already-vibrating housing market to a shuddering climax. (I require a small rest after writing that.)
Otherwise known as the “Refractory Period” – Do you need a few hours Garth? That’s what happens to most older dudes….
Investor Chamath Palihapitiya: The GameStop story is pushback against Wall Street establishment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgYZk9Mc804
Game spot valuation is insane ! Circuit breakers activated 4 times today on that stock. TD Ameritrade and Schwab put restrictions on trading this stock.
It reminds us of the valuations during tech bubble where anything with ” .com” all of the sudden was worth more than Microsoft’s entire company.
It will be interesting to know where the price settles when the dust blows over.
#26 Captain Uppa on 01.27.21 at 3:40 pm
22 John on 01.27.21 at 3:09 pm
Hey Garth, isn’t artificially inflating stock prices illegal?
————————————————————
Bankers, Hedge Funds, hell … even the FED does this all the time. Who loses? Regular joes and retail investors, you know, the dummies.
Viva La Revolucion!
———————————————-
Yes it’s rather awkward watching the so-called regulators whining about “market manipulation”. Apparently it’s only ok when hedge funds and HFT algos do it?
How many “China trade talk” tweets Donald Trump send out in 2019 to goose the market?
Young traders have figured it out and they are fearless. I wish I were less risk averse but glad to see the good guys winning for a change.
#24 Bill on 01.27.21 at 3:16 pm
We are under a dictatorship.
—
No, you aren’t. The dude tweeted that he had, and was immanently releasing, CLASSIFIED material. He was informed, in a pretty friendly exchange, that this is ILLEGAL by LAW ENFORCEMENT. He wasn’t arrested and he used fear tactics to make it sound like he and his family was threatened. Anyone can knock on your door dude especially RCMP when they want to chat. Get over yourself.
——————-
Why wasting time responding to someone who’s quoting the Rebel News?
As this is a part-time virus blog.
It would suck being old in this country. We LOCKED DOWN to save the MOST vunerable – our treasured elderly.
No expense was spared at extending and preserving their lives.
Now the doc says Well they might have a dire response but no matter, they were already old! You are frail and pass on due to this? No matter, you were old and frail ANYWAY say the Doc.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-coronavirus-seniors-vaccine-facts-1.5888781
“Just because somebody died after receiving the COVID vaccine does not mean the COVID vaccine caused the death,” said Dr. Noni MacDonald. Canadian physicians do agree immune system responses to a vaccine could indeed prove dire, but only for the most frail of elderly individuals who are already approaching their death based on their age and pre-existing health issues.
#23 Flop…
In theory, that’s what COVAX is for (cheap doses to countries that cannot afford it).
S. Africa complained they are paying about $5 and half bucks for a dose that the EU is paying $2 and quarter bucks for. Not very equitable. And those prices from the Serum Institute of India, largest vax maker in the World.
Neither is COVAX equitable to date in the number of doses. Go here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/#dvz-section-purchasing
Scroll to the swirly green grey graphic, mouse over “COVAX” on the right hand side and read how many doses pledged to it, of course divide by 2 to get people. Oh, and Sanofi/GSK does not work – they retrying and maybe done by end of 2021.
So 250M people will get fully vax’d thru COVAX. Seems a little light to me.
It’s become a World where if your country is wealthy you get vax’d earlier. Within that cohort, as Canada is learning, if you invested in vax companies, you get doses before others (e.g., Pfizer).
It’s become a “better me than thee” World. Sad.
#29 Captain Uppa on 01.27.21 at 3:21 pm
Viva La GME Revolucion !
————-
Revolution my eye.
Warren Buffett says the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Carefully tend your portfolio garden. Fertilize, plant, trim and harvest when appropriate. Patience, though. Don’t harvest too early.
Re GG Payette “pension”, a friend just forwarded this from taxpayer’s federation:
“…here’s the mind blowing news: this isn’t just a lifetime expense account. It lasts longer than that. The estate of a former governor general can keep billing taxpayers for office expense for six months after they die.
You read that right.
You’re actually stuck paying a governor general’s office expenses for six more months after they die!”
5 BlogDog123 on 01.27.21 at 2:26 pm
with all those WFH newbie day traders, GameStop will go higher and higher until they run out of newbie day traders…
I think Michael Burry will hit the sell button any day now
__________________
If you were paying attention, you’d know he no longer has a position.
2008 introduced us to MBSs and their toxic fallout.
Now we’re learning about Short Squeezes.
Too early to tell, but there always seems to be a potential Black Swan lurking in the murky waters ahead.
Better stick with Garth’s advice.
The first case … yah, it’s likely a bad idea to buy especially with the lack of rules protecting landlords these days.
The second case … well government bond yields are much lower than 4.5% (36,000 / 800,000) these days. So consider these 3 cases if they sell:
1) House prices stay flat, and these people earn 4% – neutral
2) House prices drop 200K — oh hey, that’s great
3) House prices go up 200K — these guys are priced out forever.
If there’s a 20% chance of 3), it’s a 20% chance of living out retirement in a house that they might not like and don’t control. I would argue that not selling is entirely logical.
To all the Che Guevara’s commenting about what happened on Wall Street courtesy of the Hoodies.
Here’s a thought:
What if they do that, in reverse as in “put”, on an investment(s) you own?
See how:
Viva la Revolución
you’ll be then?
Never thought of that did you?
———————–
The broom sweeps both ways.
The nonhuman who skipped the COVID lineup, has now been fired and allegedly been given a 26 million stock severance.
I know it’s in his contract, but me thinks a good old fashioned tarring and feathering would have been more appropriate.
In any case, there’s lots of votes for the NDP and Libs in a story like this.
game spot is so yesterday you old boomers. see amc.
are a bunch of wet teens blowing up hedge funds for real?
#42 TurnerNation
SO true.
The market here is hot right now with low inventory and houses selling for much more than asking price. We are considering listing in May and renting for a few years until we figure out exactly where we want to relocate. The problem is that rentals are extremely expensive and I expect to pay roughly $3,000 per month for a house of my taste.
———
You could adjust and find something outside your taste or comfort level, after all its only a rental, you can leave nearly anytime after your 1st year if you don’t like it. Perhaps a place in Kempville?
“Robinhood” ended up being a prescient name.
The Wallstreeter Establishment have the Gall to call for more Regulation.
Well I say one thing, The Game STOPS !
#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.21 at 3:50 pm
#24 Bill on 01.27.21 at 3:16 pm
Why wasting time responding to someone who’s quoting the Rebel News?
—
Every now and then I like to check in to see if there’s any story behind the wack-job stories that get spouted here… Yeah, nope. Dude’s a tool.
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/
Hang on new variant in bc also.
Dr John Campbell in England weights in….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3849fI4yIeo&t=94s
Believe it or not but FOMO has come to Welland. I know, Welland?
Here is a dated bungalow that just sold for $600,000 on the button. There were 31 offers!! Listed a bit low at $449,900 but not ridiculous.
Comps to this one sold last May for $420,000.
In November a much nicer bungalow almost on the same block for for $520,000.
Now we’re at $600,000 and 31 offers.
I didn’t think there would be 31 people who wanted to live in Welland :)
https://housesigma.com/web/en/map?listing_days=0&sold_days=7&de_list_days=7&house_type=%5B%22all%22%5D&list_type=%5B3%5D&listing_price=%5B0,4500000%5D&rent_price=%5B0,10000%5D&bedroom_range=%5B%220%22%5D&bathroom_min=0&garage_min=0&basement=%5B%5D&max_maintenance_fee=0&school_condition=%7B%22elementary%22%3A1,%22secondary%22%3A1,%22public%22%3A1,%22catholic%22%3A1,%22match_score%22%3A0%7D&show_school=0&show_comparision=1&square_footage=%5B0,4000%5D&front_feet=%5B0,100%5D&open_house_date=0&description=&zoom=19¢er=%7B%22lat%22%3A43.000641624189186,%22lng%22%3A-79.26487550139427%7D
Okay, Cheryl, pour some merlot and cool down. This is a really, really, really bad idea. You didn’t build up a $2 million liquid retirement portfolio by being emotional and short-sighted. Don’t start now.
—————–
please, if i may garth.
cheryl – the smartest thing you could do is use 300k of that beauty portfolio for the DP and do it. leverage. money printing. inflation. uvic perfect steady customers. vic is not so bad to visit, pandemic proof.
in fact, it seemed like a good idea to us too. we are same age, in vancouver, daughter was also leaving rez one year ago. why rent i said?
because we bought real estate 3x over the years, and are big savers too, we are somewhat further ahead on a single , sub 200k earner over same time frame. (i love my stay at home dad job, esp since she moved out to university!)
last year we applied for mtge, went over twice to see places, was about to offer and … pandemic. felt like we dodged a bullet. well we were wrong.
now shes renting , the house was about 1.05 if i recall. 2x 4bdm – 6000/month steady. the kids keep it spotless and tidy. they will keep it for 3 years. it’s 2 blocks from the school.
the only upside i can see is i don’t have to go over there to do landlord stuff. big bonus if she can fix stuff herself.
it may be just the time to diversify a little bit out of the stonks madness!
@#27 A Guy in Van
“Saving has become a mugs game.”
++++
No money saved ?
Always nice to have a few hundred k available for a rainy day……and god only knows there’s no shortage of rainy days in the Lower Brainland.
Why would anyone drink Merlot?
FOMO – Fear Of Missing Orgasm
GME chicanery is payback for what the hedge funds did in 2007-2009.
In since $9. Friday is when the principle short sellers become insolvent when they are forced to buy physical stock now at sub-$400 to cover their shorts.
JPow must be crappin’ his “shorts” today …
#18 IHCTD9
“FOMO has hit the stock market.“
—————————————-
Where have you been for the last 9 months?
Game Stop had over 100% of its float short. I am still not sure how that is legally possible. Anyway, it is a lesson in emotion at this point. Unlimited losses to shorters – gotta be scary and self-perpetuating.
I noticed the bizarre short interest in Sept, but didn’t understand it. So, I didn’t buy into it. I still wouldn’t. That would have been a very high risk strategic move potentially. Never confuse strategy and outcome. Would have been great, but I still think this will end in tears for many – not just the hedge fund managers.
-LD
Decent article explaining Game Stop dynamic.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron
IMO I suspect you are seeing more and more of this realization that the systems are not “fair” and quite hypocritical, therefore a “middle finger” attitude to the system.
Dangerous in general when winning the game no matter how is more import then the structure that allows a game to be played as the integrity of the game rules becomes suspect and fairness a joke. Usually results in a breakdown of the game.
#63 Unhinged Trader on 01.27.21 at 4:57 pm
In since $9. – if you are not shitting us, wow congrats.
i was looking at amc yesterday but balked.
Friday is when the principle short sellers become insolvent when they are forced to buy physical stock now at sub-$400 to cover their shorts.
———————-
i know options are involved somehow too, but shorts don’t have a time limit. why specifically need to cover on friday , options expiration ties into?
/////////////////////
garth better watch out lest we all move over to WSB instead of living here. instead of blog dogs they refer to themselves as [email protected] and autists!
Mrs. Yorkville Renter and I decided this was the time to buy – not out of house horniness, but out of lack of space — 4 people in a 2-bed condo isn’t ideal…
She has been patient, and I was hopeful the pandemic would lead to some deals, but alas it doesn’t look so good.
… time will tell.
#18 IHCTD9
“FOMO has hit the stock market.“
*******************************
It’s a bitch getting old – verdad?
#32
Trust Faron to discredit the messenger and ignore the message. Of course it’s illegal to reveal government lies and cover-ups.
#68 bdwy sktrn on 01.27.21 at 5:20 pm
i know options are involved somehow too, but shorts don’t have a time limit. why specifically need to cover on friday , options expiration ties into?
———–
For some strange reason, visions of Tiananmen Square keep running through my head.
#69 yorkville renter
best of luck
GME has gone on long enough. I just stuck a pin in it. Watch the reaction.
If you buy a house at age 35 and stay there until you die at 85 then you will profit. Yes you may be dead but a gain is a gain.
With few exceptions such as a global thermonuclear world war, house prices will ALWAYS go up over the long term. You can bank on it!
Buy it and hold it – win!
Garth, have you ever considered writing romantic novels?
You need to write 60 Shades of gray!
It’ll get really fluid should WSB push hated names the other way.
Here’s a nice rant about the big capital pushback and push for regulation in the current dynamic.
https://t.co/uWX07doQjO?amp=1
DHS ISSUES FEDERAL ALERT FOR DOMESTIC TERRORIST THREAT!
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/27/politics/homeland-security-heightened-threat-bulletin/index.html
Over 40% of military and police hierarchies are Trump supporters. Their hands are on the triggers.
The USA is about to implode.
PREPARE
Got my assessment yesterday and it was $50,000 less than it was 9 years ago when I bought it. I guess that is only $463 per month in depreciation, which is less than rent, but this isn’t any way to get rich.
All real estate is local. And I suppose it means if they do put a capital gains tax on primary residences I’ve skirted it. They owe me money. Hopefully I can write it off against my B&D portfolio gains. Somehow I don’t think that is how they are going to structure it, but for consistency they should.
My word to the wise would be that where Alberta goes, Canada eventually follows. The riches that Alberta oil produces enhances the financial outcome of the whole country. The Federal government gets royalties and personal and corporate income taxes from all this. It benefits all of Canada in much the same way that oil production benefits all of Norway.
Oh and did I mention that among the 33 executive orders Biden signed in his first week in office, he killed the Keystone XL project? The thing is half built at this point so there is a lot of very expensive pipe in the ground that isn’t going to be doing anything, and 10,000 more jobs up it smoke. It seems to me to be the sort of thing only a dictator would do. The thing has been studied to death and has all the regulatory approvals, so when Trump approved it he was just formalizing the process. Biden cancelling it goes against 10 years of progressive approvals.
Oh well I guess the oil will ship by rail then. Hopefully there aren’t too many derailments.
And if Trans Mountain is the template, Biden is going to have to step up and purchase the project. Somehow I don’t think that is going to happen either.
#71 Job#1 on 01.27.21 at 5:51 pm
#32
Trust Faron to discredit the messenger and ignore the message
—
His message was a void, so had no credit to dis. If someone spouts that they are breaking the law it would be negligent for the RCMP to not respond. Dude has no credibility. Full stop.
#13 Drill Baby Drill on 01.27.21 at 2:49 pm
“a shuddering climax” reminds me of an old girlfriend.
You dated my wife?
#41 Ponzius Pilatus
No you aren’t. The dude tweeted that he had, and was immanently releasing classified material. He was informed in a pretty friendly exchange, that this was illegal by law enforcement.
You mean this document from:
Surgeon General
Commander
Canadian Forces Health
Service Group NDHQ Carling Campus
101 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa Ontario K1A O2K
22 January 2020
Dear Military World Games Participants:
“Potential exposure to 2019 Novel Corona virus during the military world games in October 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, Province China” etc. etc. etc.
Sorry, it was already released and if it was classified the reported would have been charged which was not the case. The fact that senior members of this government were aware of soldiers participating in games in Wuhan became deathly ill and did nothing about it that is what this story is all about.
Where was the CBC??
This is why I will never be rich.
People are killing it on stock pumps, and I’m busy trying to work out what Garth’s great-grandpa Ebenezer Bodwell was up to in my neighborhood 140 years ago…
M46BC
#17 S.Bby on 01.27.21 at 2:54 pm
TD Ameritrade & Robinhood have raised margin requirements to 100% on GameStop and AMC Entertainment. They know this will end in tears for some investors/gamblers.
——————————–
Well at least there are some adults in the room.
I read this quote today and I have to agree with her! The more shorters’ they get rid off the better, scumbags!!
Quote: So, market manipulation by Federal reserve pumping $ into failing banks and corps is okay???
But Reddit users rallying Gamestop or others is wrong and must be regulated??? The entire stock market is disconnected from reality. Funny how quickly the financial press cries for hedge funds.
I was just reading wallstreetbets, and when I refreshed the main page I got a message “you must be invited to view this forum”.
Interesting… I guess they don’t want the SEC poking around…
#76 The Awakened One on 01.27.21 at 6:13 pm
Garth, have you ever considered writing romantic novels?
You need to write 60 Shades of gray!
—————–
In keeping with the blog’s meme, it should be a financial, romantic novel.
May I suggest “The Long Sqeeze”.
With a female protagonist called Dorothy.
#26 wallflower on 01.27.21 at 3:20 pm
GAMESTOP: I love it.
Classic, Stick it To The Man.
(The Man being the derivatives-gambling hedge fund honcho/s.)
I am also liking the market response.
We need this wee whoosh.
I have a lot of cahunas to “invest.”
———————————
I had a front row seat when Brian Hunter cornered the gas storage spread. I saw how that worked out. The hedge funds only need wait until the big money sees the obvious short. A few ticks down and if there are any wise longs they will take profits. After that, the cascade.
If you have GameStop, sell enough now that your remaining shares are free. Actually sell enough to lock in a 100% profit. That way when the rest go to zero, you won’t feel so bad.
Anybody with a half a brain cell can clearly understand that whatever happened to GameStop, it wasn’t the company going up in value by 10000%. When the correction occurs it will be just as dramatic. Somebody is going to be left holding the bag.
Aw, today’s pup looks so sad:(
So, looked up Gamestop to see if it was what I thought it was. Yes, an enterprise selling games, electronics etc. So at least it has product & isn’t ‘just’ a hot new startup looking for IPO $. Still, have to say that the uptick in prices is kind of like one of those make an offer rodeos for home purchasing. How high can it go before its all over?
#80 Faron on 01.27.21 at 6:25 pm
#71 Job#1 on 01.27.21 at 5:51 pm
#32
Trust Faron to discredit the messenger and ignore the message
—
His message was a void, so had no credit to dis. If someone spouts that they are breaking the law it would be negligent for the RCMP to not respond. Dude has no credibility. Full stop.
————–
There’s a saying about what happens when you wrestle with a certain domestic animal.
If you need a hint:
Arabs and Jews do not eat bacon and ham.
Which is good, means there’s more for me.
Interesting dynamic with GameStop and r/wallstreetbets and all the rest. There has been a ton of news coverage that has worked as effective advertising for stocks and “playing the market”. As Garth has informed us, there are billions sitting around in savings accounts and now everyone “knows” that you can toss the $ into Robinhood and watch it multiply. The ol’ honey pot. Maybe this will catalyze the blow-off top over the next few weeks before a real correction? Hold on tight!
#40 Howard on 01.27.21 at 3:49 pmbut glad to see the good guys winning for a change
— –
Winning is a tough one to sort out here, not all the calls are covered, and the minute they start taking profits, that sucker’s gonna pile drive. Sounds like they got Melvin good though…
Before I got booted from WSB tonight, many dudes claimed “they’re never gonna sell” – therefore, many dudes are going to self-immolate on GME.
@#23 Flopster
“I can’t be the only one who thinks the vaccination setup is back to front, can I?”
+++
God forbid our bureaucrats need 9 MORE months to figure out how to line people up and stick a needle in their arms.
Yo !
Public Health bureaucrats.
Set up tables at Tim Hortons.
Jab everyone who walks in or drives through.
90% of Canadians inoculated in a week.
Or, better yet.
Let Tim Hortons staff run it since most govt people seem to be incapable of organizing a poop fest in an outhouse.
Pray Trudeau wears this disorganized debacle at election time.
Ok I’m in China, using a VPN and it’s not back to normal here guys. So Xmas or Crossedoutmas as Turner Nation might say wasn’t canceled – how can something be cancelled that doesnt exist in China?? – But – we are not locked down like in canada. So don’t beleive the stuff you see on TV.
I have more freedom to move in China than americans and canadians have now but I am tracked everywere with qr codes. Its ok, its keeping me safe they say. Don’t worry this will probably be rolled out in canada soon.
The idea which I’m working on, is to get Candians back to work, in the recycling and rubbish sorting. China like I said is not back to normal but the economy is smoking HOT, running on all cylindars, home deliveries skyrocketing, people out and spending ect. You can see it. Small business open EVERYWHERE.
There are literally millions of tons of garbage/recyclebles producted EVERY DAY in my city alone.
My idea is to ship all this waste to Sask, Man and AB, get people working again, sorting garbage and recycling for China.
Sask, Man and AB have the land and the work ethics and tons of people out fo work. It could even be a work for food or work for rent / morgage thing.
I wouldn’t even waste my time in B.C. with all those guys on the CREB and smoking joints.
If Canada really wants to cut down on unnecessary travel maybe they should take Beijing’s new approach. On a flight Monday from Changchun to Beijing there was a suspected possible covid case on board. Upon arrival they always take a nasal swab but this time it was also “bend over…take your pants down”. They took an anal swap from each passenger as well. Welcome to Beijing!
#2 Flop… on 01.27.21 at 2:14 pm
….
Then he was really, really, really excited about his job.
After that, he wasn’t that interested for the next couple of hours…
M46BC
*********
…hours Flop? My infrequent innings tire me for days.
Speaking of baseball…
M57BC
I enjoyed today’s show. Wallstreetbets is private on Reddit now and deemed hate speech on Discord.
Why was it okay to allow $TSLA to have a P/E of 1700 but speculating in $GME, $BB, $AMC is bad?
Glad to see Wall Street, the SEC and the Biden administration are able to work fast to go after retail investors, while their campaign promises of more stimulus cheques and higher wages are not the most important things they are working on passing through the Senate right now.
The Gamestop story is the most insane investing story ive seen in my lifetime.
#34 Howard on 01.27.21 at 3:41 pm
This is great fun watching 20-year olds with stimmy cheques banding together bankrupting Wall Street hedge funds. I wish I’d heard of WallStreetBets previously, but I’m happy for the average joes making bank. Good on them.
———————————–
While we can’t rule out the idea that there is a hedge fund or two that is getting clobbered by this explosive move, chances are it is not the WallStreetBets crowd making all the money. It is another fund that knows a short squeeze when it sees one, and has one of their junior traders posting comments under an alias.
I’ve worked in a trading shop once before a couple of times. I sort of know how they do business.
First of all they have a VaR measure and will take steps every day to stay within their limit (such that they only have a predetermined amount of exposure).
Second, if they sell options they always delta hedge, meaning say if they sell calls they are always long some amount of the underlying, or if they sell puts short some amount, which is also balanced daily.
Third, options traders use a concept called “call-put parity”, which I am not sure I totally believe in but what it means in practice is that if a trader sells calls and the underlying goes up, he just starts selling puts to make some of the loss back from premiums. The idea being if you sell both puts and calls, one or the other will expire worthless but you get the premium on both sides.
Now, this move was big enough to blow all of that out of the water. Somebody is going bankrupt. But if the WallStreetBets crowd thinks they are all going to be able to sell at the current price, they are in for a rude awaking. The funds that caused this are only on the sell side at this point. They are cashing in.
#70 Samuel on 01.27.21 at 5:25 pm
#18 IHCTD9
“FOMO has hit the stock market.“
*******************************
It’s a bitch getting old – verdad?
——
Actually, so far – getting older has been awesome. :)
#80 Faron
When you address the issues of our returning military from Wuhan, and the governments refusal to test and provide appropriate health care, not to mention hiding all of it in case it gives the lie to China’s claims that there’s “nothing to see here”, I might be tempted to take you seriously.
#73 – Reximus
Thank you. I need it!
The invisible small hands of the market fisted the fist that normally does the fisting. God bless r/wallstreetbets for taking the other side of the short trade and winnning!
What’s the ‘win’ in temporarily inflating an iffy stock through market manipulation? The last of the mob to get in will be eaten alive. – Garth
#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.21 at 1:39 pm
Is that a Covid Test?
Or are you just glad to see me….
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/china/china-rolls-out-anal-swab-covid-19-tests-saying-it-can-increase-detection-rate.html
At the drive in test centers this will give mooning a whole new meaning :)
My mail from Australia used to arrive in around 2 weeks after being dispatched.
Nowadays it takes around 6 weeks.
Don’t know what to do since the Australian Government euthanized the last carrier pigeon I sent…
M46BC
#97 Karlhungus on 01.27.21 at 7:09 pm
The Gamestop story is the most insane investing story ive seen in my lifetime.
———————————————————-
Can’t wait for the Netflix movie about it.
The moderators in this community have set it to private. You must be a moderator or approved user to visit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/
The heat is on …
#82 whiplash on 01.27.21 at 6:33 pm
#41 Ponzius Pilatus
Your line is a complete fabrication. Dude, read the document. It’s simply a notice to members of the military who participated in the games that there was a very very slim chance they were exposed.
“We are not aware of any 2019-nCoV cases among CISM MWG participants. Your individual risk of having been exposed to 2019-nCoV during temporary duty in Wuhan City for the 7th CISM MWG is negligible. This is because of two key reasons. First, all CAF participants left China well before the virus had begun circulating in Wuhan City. Second, all CAF participants have now been home far longer than the maximum incubation period between virus exposures and 2019-nCoV symptom development.”
Essentially, here’s the chain of events that have swept you in:
1) Keean Bexte taps a friend in the military for anything on coronavirus
2) Keean Bexte gets a doc. Maybe classified, maybe not, thinks he’s ON TO SOMETHING BIG.
3) Keean gets mad about something Trudeau did/said/looked like and posts to twitter that he now has no choice but to publish his “sensitive documents”. Here’s his tweet:
4) RCMP, not knowing what the docs are, or just how “sensitive” they may be and what this guy means by “pissed off” in relation to the PM investigates. Comes to guys door and asks polite questions and informs him that publishing classified docs is illegal. That’s it, the full extent.
5) Wuss Keean gets shaken and takes to youtube to complain about the encounter.
6) Wuss Keean posts the doc and it’s a total nothingburger.
If I go on Twitter saying that I fully intend to break the law I should expect a visit from the RCMP. Entitled Keean thought he wasn’t accountable for his actions. He was reminded that he’s not so immune. That, my friend, is the story. It’s no cover up.
Again, garbage media leads to garbage conspiracy and eventually QAnon-like crap. Shame.
What’s the ‘win’ in temporarily inflating an iffy stock through market manipulation? The last of the mob to get in will be eaten alive. – Garth
******
To the best of my knowledge, The r/wallstreetbets traders acted on publicly available info that a hedge fund had shorted up to 120% of the Game Stop stock. This is a trade to artificially smash the stock down and profit off it. Pretty dubious behaviour at best but seems to be sanctioned by the established market players who tend to win more than they lose… See massive asset price inflation thanks to QE ad infinitum.
I do agree that those on the other side of the trade who kept their Game Stock could be in a problematic position… The greater fool perhaps?
#96 SimplyPut7 on 01.27.21 at 7:09 pm
Wallstreetbets is private on Reddit
—
And that will be that. The only way the stock stays propped is with new blood. Private reddit wont give it to them. GME over. Before it went private, I saw some posts saying “in at $350”. Ouch! The short interest renewed at higher levels will just make the hedgies that much more money.
re: game spot/housing bubble
The central bank of Canada and other CBs are acting irresponsibly by encouraging this.
#100 Job#1 on 01.27.21 at 7:20 pm
#80 Faron
Read the doc dude. There isn’t evidence that COVID was spreading in October, so how could the military have known to test them then? The doc is from Jan 22, 2020 a full two months after they returned from China. This reminds me of that 3 gorges dam nonsense from a while ago. A total fabrication.
If you set up your line of thinking such that any refuting evidence is complicit with a cover up, then you have blocked any and all means of conveying the fact that you are wrong to you. And if you can’t even read your own damned docs, no one can help you. God speed.
#82 whiplash on 01.27.21 at 6:33 pm
“Potential exposure to 2019 Novel Corona virus during the military world games in October 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, Province China” etc. etc. etc.
Sorry, it was already released and if it was classified the reported would have been charged which was not the case. The fact that senior members of this government were aware of soldiers participating in games in Wuhan became deathly ill and did nothing about it that is what this story is all about.
Where was the CBC??
—————————–
I know it is the Rebel but I see a few reports the Athletes from other countries at the Military Games in Wuhan in November 2019 fell quite ill. (these are not frail people).
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19
https://www.rebelnews.com/covid_coverup_trudeau_govt_helped_china_hide_origins_of_covid_19
“It comes after French pentathlete Elodie Clouvel claimed she and her partner Valentin Belaud contracted the virus at the Games.
Italian fencer Matteo Tagliarol also said everyone in his apartment in the city fell ill with symptoms “that looked like those of COVID-19”.
Luxembourg triathlete Oliver Gorges said he fell ill with a flu and is now to undergo an antibody test this week to see if he has COVID-19. He claimed that Wuhan was a “ghost town” when he went for a cycle in the city, while also saying that he had his temperature recorded on arrival at the airport while athletes were told to wash their hands when entering the canteen.”
RE: #62 Hilroy on 01.27.21 at 4:49 pm
FOMO – Fear Of Missing Orgasm
=======================================
Sounds like a self fulfilling prophecy.
@#93 Zhong Guo Guy
“My idea is to ship all this waste to Sask, Man and AB, get people working again, sorting garbage and recycling for China.
Sask, Man and AB have the land and the work ethics and tons of people out fo work. It could even be a work for food or work for rent / morgage thing.
I wouldn’t even waste my time in B.C. with all those guys on the CREB and smoking joints.”
++++
Ahahahahaha. Good one.
Hilarious.
First the fentynal and now empty amazon cardboard boxes and dirty plastic food cartons…
I love it.
Allow me to sing a song to the tune of an old tv show Rawhide.
“Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’ lets keep them blogdogs trollin…”
#34 Howard on 01.27.21 at 3:41 pm
“This is great fun watching 20-year olds with stimmy cheques banding together bankrupting Wall Street hedge funds. I wish I’d heard of WallStreetBets previously, but I’m happy for the average joes making bank. Good on them.”
The problem is they’re NOT making bank. They are all (mostly) holding and adding. And encouraging more newbies to jump on the bottom rung of the Ponzie scheme. The forum has gone from 2.2Million subscribers last week, to 3.6M today. That is 1.4 million people who prior to 6 days ago had no interest in “investing”.
Maybe I slept-through/skipped/had-Covid the day they taught “investing” in school, but I understood that it was about increasing your assets over time, all with the end game of being able to convert your increased assets for lots of valuable liquid money, when that time of need has come. The company (I won’t name it, and I am very surprised Garth did since he mentioned in the comments several days ago that he would not provide service to equity flips) is very unlikely to survive. Very likely, despite what they say, almost all are going to want to get usable money out; for most, that is kind of the whole point of investing. A fortunate few will get nervous, and get out early.
However, for most that path is NOT what is going to happen. All of these newbies are being exploited by their peers that got in before them. Their lack of knowledge and understanding is being used against them, under the guise of a youthful uprising. The ruse to flip-off the establishment will eventually cede to greed,… or a need to pay for the data charges from streaming the stock ticker all day. Some won’t make rent next month, perhaps the month after. The sense that the ability to get ahead in the equity markets is stacked against them will perpetuate, and that unfortunately will be the real story.
I actually really feel sorry for them. Their naivety is being taken advantage of. I wouldn’t want anyone taking advantage my kids this way. When I tried to post this info on Reddit, I was down-voted to hell. A large number of these beginners think they are investing (not gambling), and have indicated that they borrowed from their student loans, parents/friends, or otherwise bought on margin. Quite ironically, one poster sold their Christmas gift PlayStation5 to fund their in.
Also ironic is that the Hold-the-Line-at-All-Costs stance they are taking (they are feverishly chanting “Can’t Stop. Won’t Stop. xxxxSTOP!”), is likely only helping other hedge funds,… who will be lining up at the door, to short the stock again. Only now it will be from $350 instead of from $3.50. Insult to injury.
I actually took the opportunity to talk to my kids last night about market bubbles. My oldest (16 years old) was all excited because he had somehow heard about all this. They were astonished that someone could think a tulip bulb could be worth so much.
So Howard, perhaps it might be great fun watching the MM take a licking, but I think your emotional response to the average joes is misguided.
@Garth
>What’s the ‘win’ in temporarily inflating an iffy stock through market manipulation? The last of the mob to get in will be eaten alive. – Garth
How is bidding up a stock on the open market between willing buyers/sellers “manipulation”? It’s a beautiful thing Garth, watching the fortunes of lifelong money movers ruined, embrace it, just like the prostitutes at the Capitol cowering before the mob, brings a tear to the eye.
CP announces 5-for-1 stock split.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-pacific-railway-announces-five-for-one-stock-split-share-repurchase-program-1.1554882
Last split was in 2001. This stock is tfsa worthy, just hold it for 100 years. and now it’s gonna be 5 times cheaper.
@#113 kommykin
“Sounds like a self fulfilling prophecy.”
++++
Or.
A master of their domain
https://www.songfacts.com/facts/jackson-browne/rosie
r/WallStreetBets went private — and now it’s back with a message
it’s enough to make my head spin …
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets must be driving the SEC mental. Dunno what they’re gonna do to calm that community down a bit.
#115 ALL CAPITAL LETTERS AND RUN ON SENTENCES on 01.27.21 at 8:23 pm
——— —-
They all YOLO’d on GME yo!
This is going to end up with some kind of measure to prevent it from happening again, which will then be seen as the elites keeping the little guy down.
#91 IHCTD9 on 01.27.21 at 6:56 pm
Before I got booted from WSB tonight, many dudes claimed “they’re never gonna sell” – therefore, many dudes are going to self-immolate on GME.
——————–
About 20 years ago my workmate and I were looking into this junior mining stock. He drank every night with the CEO at the local pub and believed every word he said. He walked into my office one sunny day and told me he had bought $30k worth @ 20 cents a share. When the stock went to $3.00 I walked into his office and told him to sell a portion. No way, he declared, “it’s going to $10” The stock went up to $4.80 and back to ZERO in a month, and he never sold a share. He left work on sick leave the next week and I never seen him again. Sad. A few will make money, most will not, and there will be collateral damage.
Perfect example of the value of financial advice, which is basically stopping you from doing dumb stuff. People can do really well for a couple of decades, then make one stupid decision at the exact wrong time because of a life change and screw themselves.
#93 Zhong Guo Guy on 01.27.21 at 6:58 pm
Ok I’m in China, using a VPN and it’s not back to normal here guys. So Xmas or Crossedoutmas as Turner Nation might say wasn’t canceled – how can something be cancelled that doesnt exist in China?? – But – we are not locked down like in canada. So don’t beleive the stuff you see on TV.
I have more freedom to move in China than americans and canadians have now but I am tracked everywere with qr codes. Its ok, its keeping me safe they say. Don’t worry this will probably be rolled out in canada soon.
The idea which I’m working on, is to get Candians back to work, in the recycling and rubbish sorting. China like I said is not back to normal but the economy is smoking HOT, running on all cylindars, home deliveries skyrocketing, people out and spending ect. You can see it. Small business open EVERYWHERE.
There are literally millions of tons of garbage/recyclebles producted EVERY DAY in my city alone.
My idea is to ship all this waste to Sask, Man and AB, get people working again, sorting garbage and recycling for China.
Sask, Man and AB have the land and the work ethics and tons of people out fo work. It could even be a work for food or work for rent / morgage thing.
I wouldn’t even waste my time in B.C. with all those guys on the CREB and smoking joints.
…
So how was the anal corona swab? Are they catching on?
Having grown up in Victoria and been to many a shared house party etc I can tell her to not do it at any cost. Houses get destroyed even if your kid is there to help watch it. I was at a house party once and they started breaking the pipes. Seems they were evicted and decided to flood the place. Needless to say I left immediately because who wants to be around losers like that. Anyways expect serious headaches renting to the university crowd and never ending maintenance.
Hoodies in the market, a joke, on them. The private sites that pump and dump will likely experience another Boomer bummer, criminal action. Touting for profit is illegal, and no matter the rainbow fluster, guaranteed the SEC etc is likely already building a case. If that happens, all gets reset and profits reclaimed. The stock market is not a hyper-casino where rules don’t apply. In fact, there are rules, lots of them. No one “ gets away with it” . Accounts are frozen, prices are adjusted, the big clock rotates back to wherever. If you’ve innocently profited from a pump and dump, don’t complain if you wake up and find a hold on your personal account . Crap !!!
Newbie UVIC UNI Mom, Go Vikes. But seriously, Victoria is on another planet. You can’t say “investing” and “ Victoria” in the same sentence without laughing. Primarily it’s an LTC home, that’s never short of inventory turn over. Also, there are plenty of student accommodations on campus so don’t feel pushed to send your daughter into a musty mosh pit. Ask about Grad Residence. My kid worked on campus and was granted space in “grad” for the entire 5 years. Good luck.
@Zhong Guo Guy
Totally off subject.
Soooo.
I gotta ask.
Anal swabs?
This fanatic buying of houses and GameStop, at a time when prices are at an all time high reminds me of 41 years ago in January 1980 when the same thing happened with gold. It went up to $800 per ounce, well over $2000 in today’s prices, and people were lining up to buy it. Once again the time tunnel pulls me in. Say, anyone heard that new tune by The Police with the words: giant steps are what you take, walking on the moon, I hope my leg don’t break, walking on the moon….
I wonder why the lineups to buy gold weren’t 3 times as long when it was on sale in 1999. As for houses and GameStop, I’m reminded of my analogy of the governor. I think of a fully loaded truck going down a 20% grade in low gear. The engine’s going so fast that the governor has pinched the throttle firmly shut, the fuel injectors are shut off, and that big block 460 cubic inch is putting out no power at all, but instead absorbing it and acting like a brake. At the high house and GameStop prices, everyone should be like that governor and selling to lock in their gains.
While everybody’s attention is on the GameStop orgasm you might want to pay attention to any Canadian oil stocks.
Joe Biden is starting to listen to the progressive/environmental factions in the US. He is not going to allow oil drilling on federal lands and there is a push to shut down and disallow pipeline right of ways. Add to that the US fracking oil production is potentially going to be under attack from environmentalists and dwindling capacity. Is all this going to be good or bad for our oil export capacity?
Don’t think the higher ups in the financial world aren’t concerned about a bubble in a certain “tulip” stock? I got this note in my trading account this morning:
GME (Gamestop) – Margin requirements
Effective after market close on January 27th, the margin requirement on long positions of GME (Gamestop) will increase from 30% to 100%. Margin requirement for short positions will increase from 130% to 200%.
r/wallstreetbets back public again. The party continues!
Certainly amusing from here on the sidelines.
White House apparently “monitoring the situation”. What’s to monitor? This is the free market at work. Manipulation? Only what the other side has been doing for decades. Cry me a river.
Garth…The frat house rent of $42,000 will turn into thirty grand or less after taxes and overhead…
—————-
Dear Garth even from finance point of view you show for Cheryl VERY SWEET scenario. She may buy this house in February. I know how regular people thinking: I will have each year 30000…. For 10 years 300000 for…. and wait, prices for RE will increase each year at minimum 3% (I read yesterday report CMHC), so I will have double profit when in 10 years I decided to sell my house with my investment back.
Garth, can I put mine 2 penny to yours sweet scenario?
First of all being landlord mean 24/7 job. Should be ready for that.
Just have a look Cheryl. You need care about garbage. With 6 apartments you will have enough. With 6 moisters (students) appartments and probably 1 kitchen and 1 bathroom (We don’t have details – may be x2) I guarantee you, that at least each 2 month, you need plumber. Every year you will need fire inspection. You need care about removing snow – in Van not often hopefully, but you need to keep territory around house clean. This is your job.
Second – solving conflicts between tenants is your job too. It may happened especially with students any time. In case eviction you need paralegal. You need to have lawyer in case more serious problems with tenants .
Third – after somebody moved out you need for new tenant at least refresh painting to make apartment looks clean and attractive. For that you need to hire professional – not sure you can do it.
Finally (not all) you need regularly read RE news related landlords to quickly follow new regulation. And this is not full list!
Like Garth, I require a small rest after writing that.
After small rest –Cheryl, remember behind each point stay money which in addition to Garth calculation will be lost for you forever.
Cheril, are you still wont to be landlord ?
Woah! I bet Trudeau is looking at something like this too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Se4VANpHUs
(Means everyone will get the same tax credit for an RRSP contribution regardless of income or tax bracket.)
Garth – been a while since I commented – but been enjoying the blog on a daily basis.
Today watched an interview former US Fed Chairman (old fox now) Alan Greenspan.
His prediction – back to the 70’s style stagflation….time to brush off some of good old Dr Shulmans writings….I was a young graduate then – time to leverage experience and wisdom…..also Greenspan prediction challenge is political will to stop hand outs to every type of interest group and many that expect handouts and government bail outs…..economically easy to fix – stop them – politically not so easy! So we will have 1) higher inflation, 2) higher unemployment and 3) lower productivity on one hand on the hard side of the economy. On the other side Governments will have to increase taxes due to higher deficits/debts which also drives up inflation in order to prop up both RE and Equity Markets – the perfect Ponzi scheme…..
And after the Pandemic Covid 19 the roaring 20’s due to pent up demand – then guess what is next?
“we’ve managed to save a significant amount of money over the years, in the vicinity of 2 million. I’m 55 and my husband is 50. So, we’re considering making a real estate purchase”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Doesn’t anyone understand what is happening? Don’t they listen to Turnernation?
If I was in their position, I would be buying myself a citizenship in Nevis or somewhere similar and moving there to ride out the madness or at least move there in the hopes that the madness doesn’t reach there for a few more years.
Nope, they want to buy a house.
#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.21 at 8:19 pm
@#93 Zhong Guo Guy
“My idea is to ship all this waste to Sask, Man and AB, get people working again, sorting garbage and recycling for China.
Sask, Man and AB have the land and the work ethics and tons of people out fo work. It could even be a work for food or work for rent / morgage thing.
I wouldn’t even waste my time in B.C. with all those guys on the CREB and smoking joints.”
++++
Ahahahahaha. Good one.
Hilarious.
First the fentynal and now empty amazon cardboard boxes and dirty plastic food cartons…
I love it.
Allow me to sing a song to the tune of an old tv show Rawhide.
“Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’ lets keep them blogdogs trollin…”
———
CEF,
As usual, you don’t get sartire.
We used to sent our garbage to Asia.
Remember when the Phillipines forced us to repatriate tons of garbage.
China is becoming a first class Nation.
Adapt, or become a garbage collector.
The kids are going nuts on WSB. It’s a war, WS vs WSB.
The next couple days are going to be entertaining!
Stock market FOMO. LOL!
We should have Vaccine FOMO given the shortages. I mean we hit 70% home ownership levels induced by FOMO.
The ROI is you get to live… isn’t that a good investment?
Oh, and you already paid for it… might as well claim what is yours.
#83 Flop… on 01.27.21 at 6:35 pm
This is why I will never be rich.
People are killing it on stock pumps, and I’m busy trying to work out what Garth’s great-grandpa Ebenezer Bodwell was up to in my neighborhood 140 years ago…
******************************************
Hahaha, actually that is rich! Good one Flop!
” #125 Balaclava Hitman on 01.27.21 at 9:12 pm
Hoodies in the market, a joke, on them. The private sites that pump and dump will likely experience another Boomer bummer, criminal action. Touting for profit is illegal, and no matter the rainbow fluster, guaranteed the SEC etc is likely already building a case. ”
—————————
Oh, the SEC?
Like the SEC did (NOT!) during the sub-prime fraud? The fraud and collusion in which not one person ever went to jail?
#61 kenyon Sinclair on 01.27.21 at 4:45 pm
Why would anyone drink Merlot
*******************************
Red wine beginners, we’ve all been there.
#85 IHCTD9
Nope site is being overrun, what is there to fear from the SEC.
I went in with 15k GME on Friday morning and cashed out today with a return of 120k, AMC up substantially too, will be cashing out of there tomorrow. Literally life changing money in the last 7 days. He who dares, wins!
Re: Chinese Covid anal swabs
The thing is… it’s not the anal swab itself that’s disturbing… it’s the applicator.
Anyone buying Gamestop right now is directly responsible for turning a stock in a giant ponzi scheme. This isn’t investing. Go to Vegas to get soaked. you’ll atleast get to swim in the pool.
There’s going to be alot of folks getting crushed when this thing topples.
https://windsorstar.com/news/politics/more-than-636m-in-cerb-benefits-was-paid-to-300000-teens-between-ages-of-15-and-17-documents
****************************************
You could look at this as your government is:
a. Lazy
b. Stupid
c. Vote buying
Either/or all of the above … pick your favorite
The hedge funds that were going short GME when short interest was already over 100% were just asking for it to blow up their face. Where was the risk control? Good for the WSB kids for handing it to them. I read somewhere that they were also hitting the longs of those hedge funds, kind of a double whammy. Short sell the ones that the hedge funds need to sell to cover their short position in GME. Genius.
#66 Loonie Doctor on 01.27.21 at 5:18 pm
“Game Stop had over 100% of its float short. I am still not sure how that is legally possible. Anyway, it is a lesson in emotion at this point. Unlimited losses to shorters – gotta be scary and self-perpetuating.”
—————————————
So far as I know it is not legally possibly over the exchanges, you have to “borrow” actual shares to short. Shorts have to borrow actual shares and deliver them to the buyer’s broker (electronically mostly, but where the actual shares are stored is known).
So I suppose it must have happened “over the counter”, i.e. a derivative style bet.
In any case it took a while for this to dawn on me, but if the short position is over 100% of float the long position must be as well. Probably actually more than the short position. You can’t have a short without a long on the other side, whereas you can have a long without a short up to the float.
So if we imagine no shorts, there can be longs up to the float, i.e. all the shares are held outright. Shorts on exchanges have to “source” the shares they sell (i.e. borrow them from a broker) and actually deliver the shares to the buyer or his broker. So you could actually have twice as many people who think they are long as there are shares but only 1 times the float short. On the exchanges.
But over the counter anything can happen. There may be no shares changing hands at all but just derivatives and options that settle cash.
In any case when the “short squeeze” ends, probably through the bankruptcy of whoever is on the wrong end of this, it’ll be over and there will be no more buyers. Those who are buying now will be left holding the bag.
Remember, if you are playing poker and you don’t know who the patsy is, it is you.
———————————–
Another question that was asked (can’t remember by who) was whether or not shorts have to cover if it is not an option or derivative with a settlement date. They do not. But they do have to post margin daily, and in this case I assume that has become rather difficult. You need a rather large bank account to ride this one out even if you are positive it is going back to $4.
PS,
This GameStop thing will end shortly, one way or another. If I was the owner of GameStop shares I would be selling like crazy. If I was the CEO of GameStop I’d be bringing a large public offering to the market Tesla style. This thing is not going to last.
If you are long GameStop, panic now and avoid the rush.
When the shoeshine boy in the street tells you to get in…it’s way too late.
#115 ALL CAPITAL LETTERS AND RUN ON SENTENCES on 01.27.21 at 8:23 pm
Not sure how you concluded that I was “emotional”. Because I said I was happy that average joes were making big bucks on these trades at the expense of corrupt and greedy hedge funds? This subdued contentment was sufficient to cloud my judgement?
What would you call shorting a stock to 148% of its float? Rational, empirical thinking?
It’s true that some of the hoodie brigade won’t sell and will lose it all. Tale as old as mankind. If they are young it will be a valuable lesson to pay their “market tuition” so early in life. Unlike the hedge fund fake capitalists, their losses won’t be socialized.
#128 Willem on 01.27.21 at 9:35 pm
While everybody’s attention is on the GameStop orgasm you might want to pay attention to any Canadian oil stocks.
Joe Biden is starting to listen to the progressive/environmental factions in the US. He is not going to allow oil drilling on federal lands and there is a push to shut down and disallow pipeline right of ways. Add to that the US fracking oil production is potentially going to be under attack from environmentalists and dwindling capacity. Is all this going to be good or bad for our oil export capacity?
—————————————
Art Berman forsees significant supply issues in the back half of 2021. You can find plenty of interviews with him on Youtube.
If there is demand for Alberta oil – and there will be – it won’t even matter that Keystone was killed. The oil will get to the customers one way or another and prices will rise as supply falls.
From a national unity perspective this raises interesting issues. If we are on the cusp of a new oil bull market, it’s a fair bet that Alberta will not meekly hand over its revenues to Quebec this time considering how it has been treated during the downtown.
The mini recovery in production and employment levels seen this past Fall are going to repeat again this year but fall far short of pre-pandemic and employment levels for years to come.
They won’t find enough patches to fix the gas bag of pent-up excitement going around to keep the hot air in this balloon for long.
Pre-recession 2008-2009 levels of employment and production took 9 years to come back.
They used all the patches on that gas-bag of growing debt with none left for this big bag of explosive hot air.
The whole “hoodies-sticking-it-to-the-Boomers” thing is hilarious. Not a chance. I wince to see supposedly more sophisticated investors in the comments embrace it.
Couple hedge funds will die, but a greater number will prosper. Wall Street has never been shy about eating it’s own children. I wish Citadel was publicly traded.
Just like all “free” social media, if you aren’t paying anything, you’re the product. Trading for “free” thinking it’s a revolutionary act is like clicking “Like” and believing you’re changing the world.
All these commision-free trading platforms RH, IBKR Lite, etc – sell their order flow to the “enemy” the hoodies think they’re fighting. Just like FB sells eyeballs to advertisers.
It’s like playing poker while being able to see your opponent’s hand. Big fish LOVE these guys! The ultimate marks: not only realizing they’re going to lose, but actually racing towards it in a frenzy.
Sure, like any ponzi a few of the retail traders at the top will make some money. The vast majority will “hang on to $1000!” and lose everything.
Same as it ever was.
For some, losing a few hundred bucks will be worth it for the dubious camaraderie of their online buddies, posting rocket and diamond emojis. Which in itself is tremendously sad, that this is what is considered “community” now.
But for all the angry indebted student-loan hand-to-mouthers going “all-in”, it’s just going to be another kick in the teeth. You think any hedge fund manager is going to feel pain like that? Nyet.
Where is TANSTAAFL when we need him?
#58 Penny Henny
“Believe it or not but FOMO has come to Welland”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Back in the late eighties a comment was posted in the Toronto Sun…(could have been Garth who posted it in his column)…(could have been Howie Meeker?) anyway, doesn’t matter- it goes
…”The fish rots from the head down” …
in reference to Harold Ballard and his stumbling leafs.
Reference was also made of this saying at the time about Toronto in the overheated RE market then.
Turned out …no truer words were ever spoken as the collapse began in TO and spread out across the country leaving RE flat for more than a decade.
As Toronto RE overheated in the eighties, so went the outlying regions after it…
Then came the reversal (starting with downtown Toronto property…ground zero) with the subsequent horrid 90’s fallout (RE collapse) that spread out cross country from there. (prices everywhere particularly in accordance to location to the downside with it)
I sold my downtown Toronto property in 1989 and moved back home before that unusually nasty and long long RE downturn hit.
I sold my Blackberry calls today. I probably left money on the table but timing has never been my game.
I bought a house for my daughters to attend university. There were a couple of bedrooms to rent. My wife and I did well. And the kids shared.
My daughters bought me Fitbit. Trouble was I was allergic to the wristband. I would develop a major rash in a couple of hours. So I stopped wearing it because I would not pay for a new wristband.
So guess what? I was scanning Ebay a while back and they offered a magnetic copper mesh band cheap. It is cool but sticks to metal. I lost a lot of weight and use suspenders. The band sticks to them which annoys me but a great purchase.
Don’t mind me, just drinking hedge funder tears. *sips*
The Reddit thing, just funny. As we say…” Pigs get slaughtered”.
@#79 Nonplused on 01.27.21 at 6:22 pm
‘And if Trans Mountain is the template, Biden is going to have to step up and purchase the project. Somehow I don’t think that is going to happen either.’
++
Strange as that may seem, I think it might be exactly what happens. Nationalization of some aspects of the industry may just be where things are headed. If private investors can’t get a decent return on tight oil, but it is essential to the nation, well guess what follows. Tight oil needs heavy oil for refining purposes. Alberta and Venezuela have that. One is more stable than the other, and Russia and China are helping the latter these days. Keystone will be completed. It just won’t unfold the way we thought it would. The ‘Big Heists” are all around us. Hiding in plain sight.
#109 Faron
You should look up Volkswagen infinite squeeze in 2008, stock went from $200 to $1000.
People here were commenting on how a poster on reddit lost his shirt on buying in at $155, doubled his money if he held.
I believe there are 20 million more shares shorted than there are shares available and the short holders are obligated to replace what they borrowed so they will have to pay what the market sells at.
Who knows maybe the market price will go to, $1k per share and we will all look like chumps for missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime.
@#135 Porridge Pouter
“As usual, you don’t get sartire.
We used to sent our garbage to Asia.”
++++
Uhhh, yeah I got it.
Apparently long before you.
One quick comment.
Satire is more effective if there aren’t spelling and grammatical errors “sended” to the recipient.
Oh hey! Let’s shut this one down, too. Let’s shut them all down. No propane for Ontario, Quebec and the nether regions either. Who cares? We’ll just heat Alberta and live off our agricultural industry like we did back before oil was discovered in the province. It will be grim, but then again, Revenge is a dish best served cold. Better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven and all that rot.
A clip from this morning’s National Post:
“”Michigan won’t take Canada’s Line 5 calls
OTTAWA • The Canadian government continues to press U.S. officials to avoid the shutdown of a key pipeline supplying southern Ontario, marking another point of conflict in the energy relationship between the two countries after Keystone XL was scrapped last week.
Officials in Michigan are looking to force the shutdown of Line 5, a pipeline carrying 540,000 barrels of oil and other petroleum products each day from Superior, Wis., to refineries in Sarnia, Ont. If successful, Canadian officials warn, the move would have a devastating impact on the Canadian economy, vaporizing thousands of jobs and cutting off a crucial supply of gasoline and jet fuel to Ontario and Quebec.
In November, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said she would revoke a 1953 easement that allows Line 5 to cross the Straits of Mackinac, citing worries over potential oil spills. Calgary-based Enbridge Inc., the operator of the pipeline, was given until May 12 to shut down.
Ontario has warned that shutting down Line 5 would cut off nearly half of the crude oil it needs to make petroleum products such as gasoline. All of the jet fuel used at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport is made in Sarnia, and distributed through Line 5. It also carries propane used to heat homes in northern Michigan and Ontario, and supports thousands of jobs on both sides of the border.””
DELETED
I would imagine while that site was locked, the sec gathered the logs and are cross referencing to any licences. Whoever starts the selling waterfall will be scrutinized first. Locked accounts to follow. Too simple? Sound about right?
#141 millmech on 01.27.21 at 10:54 pm
#85 IHCTD9
Nope site is being overrun, what is there to fear from the SEC.
I went in with 15k GME on Friday morning and cashed out today with a return of 120k, AMC up substantially too, will be cashing out of there tomorrow. Literally life changing money in the last 7 days. He who dares, wins!
____
Congratz on your gains, but this kind of “investing” is not for me. He who dares, also loses – and does so much more often. Been there, done that.
What is to fear from the SEC? Your guess is as good as mine, but I bet there will be something…
Faron
Check out reddit PFC, another guy on there bought Nokia options in December and made over $2,000,000,in his TFSA the only thing he bought, no day trading, tax free.
This poster will most likely be tore down by his fellow Canadian Crabs because it is not fair that one risks, and is rewarded.
This is the (Canadian) way!
#21 Damifino
I consider myself lucky to be living in a downtown Vancouver low-rise apartment. It is special. There are no internal hallways, but instead external breezeways.
——————————————————————–
Hey, is Dexter your neighbour?
https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.keepcalmandtravel.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F04%2FHow_to_enter_Dexter_Apartment_flat_miami-930×690.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.keepcalmandtravel.com%2Fdexters-apartment-house-miami%2F&tbnid=rBv1p1Dj0gbaWM&vet=12ahUKEwiBpYf35r7uAhVkds0KHa-eCd4QMygAegUIARCmAQ..i&docid=_z_j5Cld-VLN1M&w=930&h=690&q=dexter%27s%20apartment&ved=2ahUKEwiBpYf35r7uAhVkds0KHa-eCd4QMygAegUIARCmAQ
Stock market crackdown coming. Expect more taxation, fewer rights. Do you really think ‘memes’ can destroy the market integrity like this? (GME, NOK, BB et al)?
Or is this just another part of of the ongoing WW3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetic_warfare
Memetic warfare is a modern type of information warfare and psychological warfare involving the propagation of memes on social media through ‘platform weaponization’.
On the US Military web site:
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a507172.pdf
MASTER OF OPERATIONAL STUDIES
TITLE: MEMETICS—A GROWTH INDUSTRY IN US MILITARY OPERATIONS
The short squeeze lesson is done. Next up, the dead cat bounce (apologies to felix).
Ottawa market is going through the roof. I see a few things limiting the upside:
1. Incomes are not rising as fast so people will not be able to qualify for the increased prices. Current qualifying rate is 4.79% i beleive.
2. Interest rates have little downside left
However there are buyers lining up for properties under 800k. How long that will take to exhaust is hard to tell.
I’m hosting an online event via fb on sunday at 4:15pm.
Ottawa real estate Q&A
https://fb.me/e/23K205OgJ
Hope some of you will join.
#162 Phylis on 01.28.21 at 8:44 am
I would imagine while that site was locked, the sec gathered the logs and are cross referencing to any licences. Whoever starts the selling waterfall will be scrutinized first. Locked accounts to follow. Too simple? Sound about right?
___
Looking at the prevailing sentiment on WSB right now – anyone who starts the selling will be considered a traitor to the cause by WSB’ers themselves. The cause of course is to keep those short selling hedge funds in a sea of anguish buy driving the price up and keeping it there. That means buying and holding.
It’ll be an interesting show, and the stories that will trickle out of the woodwork over the following few years will bear witness to the carnage.
Hi Garth,
I look forward to your take on GameStop. Considering it was started by a Canadian who dumped $50,000 into it a year ago I wonder if it’s in his TFSA and what the CRA will do.
Also how do we analyze the concern about retail investors ‘holding the bag’. I have a hard time differentiating it between any other hyped up investment. It just seems like whataboutism to cover for a Hedge Fund getting worked over whereas in other cases nobody cared about it.
The real winner in all of this I think is the high frequency traders who work with RobinHood and get to front-run the trades.
The last of the mob to get in will be eaten alive. – Garth
———————————————————-
And whose fault would that be? They actually chose, with their own free will to buy at the inflated price. They should have been on a buying binge buying 10 months ago when everything was on sale. Anyone with basic kindergarten level common sense should be able to see it’s a bad idea to buy something that’s already grossly over inflated. That’s why I wasn’t lining up to buy gold back in January 1980 at the inflated price of $800. I was only 19 years old and even then figured you should be selling gold at that time if you had any.
Seeing how stocks have gone way up, it would be an excellent time to increase the capital gains tax to 75%. That’s where the money is now.
It would be so cool if the Reddit/ Hoddies crowd drown out the mortgage and RE pumpers spring market hype.
Oh my what would the marketers dressed up as economists say if the tables were turned?
KEEP GOING GME!
HEAVE HO!
Bring the BIG BOYS to their knees.
They all got a BAIL-OUT in 2009 while millions lost their homes, their lives, and their wives.
We are witnessing the FRENCH REVOLUTION of FINANCE.
2021 IS GOING TO BE EPIC.
Stick it to the man!!!
So adolescent. – Garth
Aaand… there goes Gamestop.
Ramen noodle recipes may see a huge resurgence. Sorry rabble.
#171 Jason on 01.28.21 at 10:15 am
…Considering it was started by a Canadian who dumped $50,000 into it a year ago I wonder if it’s in his TFSA and what the CRA will do.
____
If DFV did just this one trade in a TFSA and basically just got lucky, I can’t see why the $$ value should be a concern to the CRA. However, if he has a history of trading within his TFSA, win or lose, even just a little bit, he’s probably looking at a 7 figure tax bill.
I don’t think he cares though, he’s officially retired either way.
#176 Sail Away on 01.28.21 at 11:10 am
Aaand… there goes Gamestop.
Ramen noodle recipes may see a huge resurgence. Sorry rabble.
____
Mayday! Mayday!
Halts and pauses and down. Next lesson, bag holder. Might as well get that lesson in before the bounce.
I can’t wait for Garth’s take on today’s stock happenings. Inb4 he defends the wealthy elite sticking it to the little guy.
In what world is blocking buying but allowing selling to bail out your hedge fund buddies NOT stock manipulation? But of course this is all the little guy’s fault.
Game is rigged. At least this will open a lot more people’s eyes. Fake markets, fake news, fake elections… fake pandemic?? xo
So 600M CERB given to teenagers for no real reason…and now they are stonk gambling! Way to go T2!
#172 Doug in London on 01.28.21 at 10:22 am
Seeing how stocks have gone way up, it would be an excellent time to increase the capital gains tax to 75%. That’s where the money is now.
————-
Chrystia? Is that you?
Hey, I’ve been wondering: do you do the whole sycophant bobblehead routine when JT talks but you’re in a different room where he can’t see you?
“In at 459!
[60 minutes later]: I have lost all my money, but I’m not selling, **** Melvin! Ape Strong! Diamond hands! [etc…] Yo!”
#171 Jason on 01.28.21 at 10:15 am
Hi Garth,
I look forward to your take on GameStop. Considering it was started by a Canadian who dumped $50,000 into it a year ago I wonder if it’s in his TFSA and what the CRA will do.
—————————————————————–
It’s not CRA’s jurisdiction but the Canadian Security Administrator (CSA).
If that poster sold after “hyping up” the stock, then it’s a classic pump and dump scheme. The person would look at fines or jail time for securities fraud.
#176 Sail Away on 01.28.21 at 11:10 am
Aaand… there goes Gamestop.
Ramen noodle recipes may see a huge resurgence. Sorry rabble.
——————————————-
Not so fast Sail, gained back almost 100% in half and hour.
Diamond hands!!! Tendies for all!!! Lol
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/reddit-gamestop-blackberry-1.5890039
@willworkforpickles, post #153:
Yes, I remember it well, how real estate prices went up so high in 1989, followed by a long bear market. Could it happen again? I don’t know, but wouldn’t want to be buying an overpriced house now.
I don’t get this frantic buying of overpriced GameStop and never will. There aren’t many bargains in the stock market right now, like there were in last March. If you have a lot of money burning a hole in your pocket now, better to buy something like BCE or CVE on the TSX, or on the NYSE there’s XLE or T. I don’t know about you but I actually use telecom services and oil products, but can’t think of anything I use from GameStop.
Wow, GME broke 500 in premarket and came back up to 460 after the open.
The more I think about this, the more I see that it simply can’t be a story of retail driving these names. I think this because yesterday numerous relic names saw huge pumps and it just doesn’t seem possible that the meme chasers could have pumped that much money into all of those names. The sheer number of shares and money involved doesn’t jive.
I have a hunch that someone wrote an algorithm to do a frequency analysis on tickers in various social media platforms that have an API and used that data to join the pump. There have been ample stampedes in the past year to train the algo on.
The implications of the past week on household investors will be interesting and likely quite sad. Wealthsimple trended on twitter at one point last night meaning that there are a lot of bag holders as of about now that probably put in buy orders over night, saw them fill at stupid levels and promptly crashed. These people will probably never return to investing.
And all of this carnage today while the broader market roars back from yesterday’s whoopsie. The sad thing is that numerous very good stocks and etfs had a small sale yesterday.
Finally, I have a hunch that the timescale of bubble formation is proportional to the median age of market participants regardless of asset (although particular assets attract particular age groups).
#172 Doug in London
Seeing how stocks have gone way up, it would be an excellent time to increase the capital gains tax to 75%. That’s where the money is now.
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If the pie is growing larger, why does the government need a bigger slice than was once considered enough?
It sounds like greed to me. Unless they’ve been woefully irresponsible with the country’s finances and need to compensate for some frightfully bad decisions.
There is no free speech, there are no free markets (unless you’re a Billion $ hedge fund).
Watch legislation hit Biden’s desk so fast to stop this happening again. The Robin Hood/Reddit traders will probably be labeled domestic terrorists mounting an insurrection against the ‘free market’ .
SoggyShorts, did you get that Nokia business out of your system? It’s a good company worth holding aside from the pumptrack. As is Blackberry. Good fundamentals both.
#180 FAKE NAME
yup its all a game and we arent allowed to play
I feel silly saying it, but I have been filled with anxiety over the last few days because I “missed out” on this Gamestop thing. I read about it on reddit earlier this month before it exploded and could have done ok if I acted on it then. Now I’m just feeling sick that I missed out.
I typed this out mostly so somebody can talk me out of what I’m feeling.
#189 Faron on 01.28.21 at 12:11 pm
Wow, GME broke 500 in premarket and came back up to 460 after the open.
The more I think about this, the more I see that it simply can’t be a story of retail driving these names. I think this because yesterday numerous relic names saw huge pumps and it just doesn’t seem possible that the meme chasers could have pumped that much money into all of those names. The sheer number of shares and money involved doesn’t jive.
I have a hunch that someone wrote an algorithm to do a frequency analysis on tickers in various social media platforms that have an API and used that data to join the pump. There have been ample stampedes in the past year to train the algo on.
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Perhaps it’s Smoking Man from beyond the grave?
So, I saw a story on the news last night how at he city of Vancouver is looking at bringing in a citywide parking permit to park your car on the street.
Estimated to be around 40 dollars a year, with talk about saving the environment.
I already pay a heap of tax at the pump that can go towards this sort of thing, ie wasted.
My truck doesn’t hurt the environment when it is parked out front of my place overnight.
I went to the city website and filled out the survey.
After starting with some relevant questions it soon drifted into wondering if I was First Nation or what gender I identify as.
There was a lot of prefer not to say boxes ticked as it has nothing to do with a tax grab.
In the comments box I typed the following…
It is already expensive enough to live in this city, this permit would just be another unnecessary cost to live here for the middle class…
https://globalnews.ca/news/7604148/vancouver-city-wide-parking-permits/
Well, my stop loss got triggered.
I set NOK to sell at $5.50 last night and the order got filled at $5.35 while I was sleeping in.
5.232% profit and my FOMO has been sated.
PSYK is down 4.7%, I guess no one cares about a shrooms ETF- too bad, it would have been way more fun to spend the money on psychedelics directly…
The other 99.9% of my portfolio lost 1.48% yesterday and is up 1.64% so far today.
The fact that I’m more excited about that than my NOK “win” probably disqualifies me from joining the cool kids on Reddit, but I’m ok with that.
That they were allowed to halt buying for retail investors, but continue to allow selling (while continuing to allow buying and selling for institutions) is downright criminal. All so that their hedge fund buddies can unwind their reckless short positions. Rules for thee but not for me. Disgusting.
#199 Fake Name on 01.28.21 at 1:05 pm
That they were allowed to halt buying for retail investors, but continue to allow selling (while continuing to allow buying and selling for institutions) is downright criminal. All so that their hedge fund buddies can unwind their reckless short positions. Rules for thee but not for me. Disgusting.
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So much for “Robinhood” eh?
It sure does seem like they ran some interference for the big boys…
Interesting. So Gamestop went all the way to $500 or so, dropped to about $126, and now is sitting at $225 as I write this.
I’m sure a few people made out like bandits.
How many idiots took money off their credit cards to buy this near peak and now have been fleeced? Oh my!
Anal swabbing in China for covid doesn’t sound so outrageous after seeing this.
You can loose your shirt in the stock market. Remember Summer 2020. Our short term memory is awesome.
Real estate on the other hand has ben rock solid since a very looooong time. It has gone up in good times and
more so in bad times. That’s exactly what everyone was saying in US in 2007 till 2008 dawned.
Are we in a RE bubble, bond buying money printing bubble or this is a bubble of many bubbles? Who knows. But I’m tired of my friends endlessly bragging about how they refinanced and invested the appreciated equity in another property. For that I hope someone comes out with a big needle to pop this frenzy.
@#183 Sail Away
“Hey, I’ve been wondering: do you do the whole sycophant bobblehead routine when JT talks but you’re in a different room where he can’t see you?”
+++++
Classic observation.
One wonders if the taxpayers pay for the massage therapy on her neck from nodding so much during Trudeau’s pressers.
#200 IHCTD9 on 01.28.21 at 1:26 pm
#199 Fake Name on 01.28.21 at 1:05 pm
That they were allowed to halt buying for retail investors, but continue to allow selling (while continuing to allow buying and selling for institutions) is downright criminal. All so that their hedge fund buddies can unwind their reckless short positions. Rules for thee but not for me. Disgusting.
______
So much for “Robinhood” eh?
It sure does seem like they ran some interference for the big boys…
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Definitely bad optics. I don’t think it’s this simple even though the story line is compelling between Discord shut down, reddit drop out and halting trading on Robinhood for these names. The pitchforks and torches are coming out, but I think that’s just going to obscure the real story that we simply don’t know yet. And when we do know, if it opposes the narrative that the big boys stole from the little guy, the facts will be tossed ’cause muh stonks.
Glad I have zero part in this and am happy to watch the port plump back up today.
@#202 Guelph Guru on 01.28.21 at 1:35 pm
You can loose your shirt in the stock market. Remember Summer 2020.
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You can also lose your shirt in the stock market.
some gamestop buyers are probably wishing they only loosened their shirts :)
GME, you know, because it’s interesting:
The pumpers are trying to bring the price as high as possible, with $1,000! and TO THE MOON! common comments.
Here’s the thing, though. At current price, the shorts are down about $20B. Even if all these firms go bust… there just isn’t enough cash to pay it out. No blood from a turnip.
So even if the pumpers succeed, or even if the shorts capitulate at the current price, the result will be bankruptcy and owed money… then asset freezes, courts, looooong timelines… and rich lawyers.
It’s already a turnip. I know Austrians like turnips, Ponzie, but best to avoid this one.
#88 Nonplused on 01.27.21 at 6:49 pm
Gamestop peaked at $498 and dropped to $132 a share, now trading at $238 with a whopping $15.9 billion cap. Gamestop had a what, 17 billion cap at its peak?
Gamestop has been trading since 2011, having 5.16 billion in annual revenue in 2019:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/revenue
There’s nothing overly special about this stock other than a typical Q4 bump in sales coupled with brand name recognition with? Retail investors. It’s just more evidence of mania driven by housing and the wealth effect driven by uber cheap credit giving bond investors no where else to go but the markets, converging at a time where more people than ever are idling at home in front of a comp and investing in whatever and they have borrowed money to invest so we get these wild distortions in the market that we would otherwise never see.
I’m with this guy below. As it is with everything in this finite existence, this bubble will pop like all the rest:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w
@Sail Away, post #181, Damifino, post #188:
For many years the taxation rate on capital gains was 75%, then it was reduced to 50% in 2000. Over the last year a lot of people have gotten quite wealthy, seeing the value of their portfolio go way up. A lot of it was caused by a blitz of government spending, and it ran up a lot of debt in the process. Somehow it will have to be paid back. You can bitch, complain, and whine all you like, but it’s a given that taxes will need to go up. Hey, when stocks were ON SALE last March I went on a buying blitz. I’ve sold some off recently and if I have to pay more tax on the AWESOME capital gains I made it will be a wonderful problem to have. Did either of YOU have the presence of mind to go on a buying blitz last March?
#205 Doug in London on 01.28.21 at 10:41 pm
@Sail Away, post #181, Damifino, post #188:
For many years the taxation rate on capital gains was 75%, then it was reduced to 50% in 2000. Over the last year a lot of people have gotten quite wealthy, seeing the value of their portfolio go way up. A lot of it was caused by a blitz of government spending, and it ran up a lot of debt in the process. Somehow it will have to be paid back. You can bitch, complain, and whine all you like, but it’s a given that taxes will need to go up. Hey, when stocks were ON SALE last March I went on a buying blitz. I’ve sold some off recently and if I have to pay more tax on the AWESOME capital gains I made it will be a wonderful problem to have. Did either of YOU have the presence of mind to go on a buying blitz last March?
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I like the ALL CAPS emphasis. Just like an infomercial.
I suspect you are a Chrystia plant, but your message is not good. To sell someone, it’s best to couch it as a way they will BENEFIT! See what I did there?
As I said, the tax on capital gains will probably go up. A lot of people will complain, saying they didn’t see it coming, like how they complained when Jim Flaherty put a stop to all companies becoming income trusts on Nov. 1, 2006. I figured it was inevitable. Sow how did I react? I went on a buying blitz of REITs that briefly went on sale. If and when the capital gains tax goes up, I’ll be ready if there are any buying opportunities. As the saying goes, when opportunity knocks, some people complain about the noise, and I think you’ll be one of them. Will it affect the markets in the long run? Did that 75% tax on capital gains stop the bull market of the 1990s?