The frenzy

The pound poll, results posted here yesterday, had a sample size over 5,000. Rarely do surveys in Canada query that many people. Of course, none of you were randomly selected, since that would be far too frightening. But, still, it’s a mess of folks. And the numbers confirm suspicions this blog has held for a number of months…

So, yes, the wealth and income gaps are chasming out of control. No coincidence that the majority of people here are (a) professionals, (b) above-income and (c) work from home. Thus we do not represent all of the nation. Far from it. We stand on one side of the gorge. The virus will have a lasting impact on many things – public health policy, government finances, social mores, workplace cohesion and conservative politics – but the greatest will be on helping to fracture society along financial lines.

It’s not good. But it’s everywhere.

We’re not alone, either. In the last year Canadian house prices rose 17% (to $607,280) and US real estate grew in value 13% (to an average of $309,800). Interestingly, the market for cheap homes in the States slid a little while ‘luxury’ homes (over $1 million) grew 90%. And now Joe Biden has just thrown gas on the real estate fire. In his first week in office the new prez (a) froze foreclosures, (b) gave first-time homebuyers $15,000 each for downpayments, allowing the purchase of a $500,000 property, amd (c) made ultra-cheap FHA mortgages widely available.

The fifteen grand is a big deal. It can be accessed immediately and serve as a deposit on a home, although it’s technically a tax credit. It’s available to anyone who hasn’t owned in three years, and Washington wants to boost the number of buyers by almost a third. The results? Inevitable. Prices will go up as a shortage of inventory is exaggerated and once again America is on the road to the kind of excessive home ownership and speculation that led to the 2005 crash. But that was 16 years ago. Nobody remembers.

But here’s the point: everybody sees what the virus has wrought. WFH salaried professionals have done great. Over 90% of our survey responses showed net worth has increased since Covid arrived. There’s no way this wealth divide can be bridged by taxing the rich (although Mr. Socks and Chrystia will try), so the next best thing (policy-makers believe) is to ensure everyone has a house. Because real estate always goes up. Oh boy.

This may explain comments from our central bank boss, Tiff Macklem this week. When presented with the facts – more houses sold last year than ever before; December sales were the highest on record; house prices rose 15x the inflation rate in 2020; homes are being flipped for 50% and 60% annualized gains in wide swaths of the GTA – he shrugged. It’s all just because of cheap mortgages and WFH, he says. No speculation.

A speculative, FOMO frenzy that beats 2017

Source: Toronto Storeys

“Because people are working from home, they don’t need to commute. Many people feel that even after the pandemic there is going to be more flexibility in many workplaces to work from home than there was in the past. So far we are not seeing the kind of excessiveness in the housing market that would really get us worried. This doesn’t look like 2017.”

No, governor. It’s worse. And you know it. This is a frenzy.

Home prices have flown way past 2017 levels. Nationally the cost of a home is 22% higher, yet incomes have risen less than 5%. Yes, mortgage rates have declined slightly, but Covid has changed everything, including our insatiable appetite for debt. Now we’re seeing speculative prices growing at twice the pace in quaint old ’17. Worse, the FOMO disease has spread (thanks to the pathogen) from the Big Smoke to the burbs and beyond to those hinterland cities where average folks could once afford average houses. This time we’ve managed to poison, gentrify and infect markets hundreds of miles out from the core. Hell, people from the GTA are moving to Nova Scotia buying houses over FaceTime in bidding wars. Is this normal, Tiffer?

Nope. In fact another government agency – CMHC – is warning darkly if the virus roars back and we see a new recession form, unemployment could spike to 25% and real estate crash by 47.9%. Without government intervention, it adds, a few big CUs would fail along with CMHC itself – which insures over $600 billion in mortgages.

Says the agency: “As we continue to deal with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to monitor the evolving financial risks facing Canadian housing markets including an uneven economic recovery impacting most vulnerable populations. Stress testing exercises like this are an essential part of effective risk management and vitally important to the long-term health and stability of Canada’s housing finance system.”

Well, who knows what lies ahead? But we do know what’s happening now.

Mortgage borrowing goes bananas on big houses

Source: Financial Post

In the last six months, Covid-fueled mortgage borrowing has been frenetic. As in the States, the greatest new debt is coming from the purchase of ever-larger, ever-more-expensive digs. Cheap mortgages, WFH, nesting and a delusional population have created a market of historic peculiarity. In the last 90 days Canadians snorfled another $29 billion. Mortgages now top $1.6 trillion. And you know what a trillion is, right?

Over 60% of Canadians, says MNP in a consumer-debt survey, “feel now is a good time to buy things they otherwise might not be able to afford.”

This doesn’t end well.

154 comments ↓

#1 BlogDog123a on 01.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Outgoing GG Julie Payette gets:
$149k pension for life
$200k annual expense trough for ‘outgoing GG duties’
Millions in grants for her future charitable funds

For about 3 years on the job.

How do I get such a sweet gig???

#2 Calgary on 01.22.21 at 2:36 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cmhc-home-prices-could-fall-479-in-worst-case-scenario-without-government-help-185740208.html?_guc_consent_skip=1611343980

Canadian home prices always goes up. No?

#3 willworkforpickles on 01.22.21 at 2:36 pm

“This doesn’t end well.”

Not with 8% mortgage rates in 4 or 5 years it doesn’t.

#4 Prince Polo on 01.22.21 at 2:44 pm

These economist warnings, just like the permabears you love to mock, are all crying “wolf”. People stopped listening ages ago, and unless wages start rising 20%/yr, I don’t see how this all doesn’t come crashing down to Earth. Will dentures become all the rage? Probably, due to all the gnashing of teeth that is coming…

#5 The Dude on 01.22.21 at 2:44 pm

As a mid 20-something frontline worker it is more and more discouraging to see this frenzy as it seems like affordable home ownership is a long way off for me the way this is trending. Hopefully one day rational thought prevails. Cheap rent will have to suffice for now!

#6 S.Bby on 01.22.21 at 2:47 pm

“This doesn’t end well”

The housing bears have been saying that for the last 15 years and look where we are now. If an event like Covid can’t kill the housing market then nothing will.

What’s happening with those mortgage deferrals?

#7 S.Bby on 01.22.21 at 2:51 pm

Random lengths lumber futures are taking off again. Up 6 1/2 percent today to $796.00

There is still a lot of demand out there for lumber which tells me that housing will stay strong.

#8 Shirl Clarts on 01.22.21 at 2:54 pm

Anyone know when Preferreds like ZPR and CPD are going to peak? Can we expect to see 12-14 bucks before 2022?

#9 WTF on 01.22.21 at 2:55 pm

Greenspan, Macklem, Nero……..

Won’t PM Dreamy be busy brilliantly vetting our new GG? No time to be filling his head about budgets.

Back to CB’s: when inflation rears its head they crush it. When assets inflate they throw gas on the fire. Brilliant strategy.

Just like the USA in the subprime debacle. We are one unforeseen calamity away from serious financial pain and the BOC/GOC wont be able to help, the avalanche of Covid Relief $ leaves the cupboards bare.

One Scenario: If Oil goes up so does the Canuck Buck, the Tifster cant lower interest rates……..screwed

#10 The Woosh on 01.22.21 at 2:57 pm

Nope. In fact another government agency – CHMC – is warning darkly if the virus roars back and we see a new recession form, unemployment could spike to 25% and real estate crash by 47.9%. Without government intervention, it adds, a few big CUs would fail along with CHMC itself – which insures over $600 billion in mortgages.

—————————————

Context…this is the worst case scenario possible. In other words, real estate apocalypse. The chances of this happening are…wait for it…NIL.

I read several pieces on this. The data points being used putting this together are no better than asking a bunch of 5 year olds to build a model of the milky way!

#11 Winterpeg on 01.22.21 at 2:57 pm

Missed the survey due to working shift work.
For what it’s worth:
Age>60; Government worker: (Health care; nurse)
So.. of course no WFH.
Didn’t lose work or income which is 60 were first in line)
Feel grateful to have had a job in a facility that managed the pandemic very well, so far.
Retiring this year. :)

#12 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 01.22.21 at 2:58 pm

Garth:This doesn’t end well.
Maybe ,likely not,let me elaborate a bit.
Long term in Canada Large cities or to borrow from Chinese nomenclature Tier 1: ( Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal) House Prices Always go up ,yes we have the odd correction here and there but it all reverts to beforehand and growth within a few years.
If you can last 5 years making mortgage payments in a falling market you are set.
Most Canadian SFH owners in the 3 mentioned markets have a rental on the side,most likely undeclared and untaxed , most new condos are rentals ( unfortunately I declare mine so >40% goes to CRA and the city so you can see why people don’t declare) so that will cushion the impact of a falling market.
Real Estate remains the simple way for most people outside of this blog to invest, no advisor needed, no trying to save extra on those confusing mutual funds and weird acronyms (ETF,ETN,SPAC,REIT,CEF …) fact is that most people are financially illiterate and outside of their company sponsored RRSP have nothing as there have no money available for it.

The template for most people I’ve interacted with is simple:
1) Gather a minimum down-payment
2) Buy the biggest house you can qualify for
3) Build equity
4) Get a HELOC
5) start spending that HELOC on toys,vacations….
Some smarter ones will get the Manulife One
6)Repeat or double down on an investment property

I do not support or encourage anyone to do the above, just observe and take note around me.

The above by all means looks insane however the mortgage default rates and foreclosures in Canada are basically non-existent so the show will go on.
I doubt highly that any Canadian government will dare to mess with RE significantly.

#13 dottawa on 01.22.21 at 2:59 pm

Articles I’ve seen seem to support this theory of people moving from big cities to small towns. That may explain this increase in sales. Dual incomes can support these prices, housepoor albeit but not bankrupt.

#14 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 01.22.21 at 3:06 pm

And all you inbred southern hillbillies, stop trying to jack up the real estate in our areas!

We don’t need you here. And 2021 is going to be a write-off – don’t plan on being in cottage country until 2022.

#15 Leftover on 01.22.21 at 3:08 pm

At least in Joe Biden’s USA they tax net capital gains on primary residences the same way they do on other investments (more or less…).

Not true in Canada, which goes a long way to explaining why our productivity growth and business investment rates are so awful.

Garth is right, this doesn’t end well.

#16 Happy prairie guy on 01.22.21 at 3:16 pm

Despite Garth’s concern about continually rising house prices, there are exceptions. Our small town an hour from the outskirts of Winnipeg which has typically seen no rise in house prices is still stable even though we are getting a few people buying from Winnipeg. We paid $119k for our beautifully restored 1905 bungalow on a large town lot in 2013 and would be lucky if we could get 125k now.

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.22.21 at 3:17 pm

A trillion here, and a trillion there.
And soon, we’re talking real money.

#18 An old Irish guy on 01.22.21 at 3:17 pm

This is for you #5 yesterday….

The world is much better
has no longer a frown
The White House at last
Has got rid of the “Clown”
Nary a sound
Not even a tweet
The account is shut down
To make it complete…

For all you do Garth…thanks.

#19 johnny on 01.22.21 at 3:18 pm

So when does it end Garth? I know the real estate market is insane but how much longer does this last. I can see another 2-3 years as central bankers print ever increasing amouts of money to buy treasuries to keep a lid on rates. I also see governments borrowing and spending like crazy. But they cant do this forever so when will be the breaking point..next year seems too early. Honestly Garth what is your best guess on when the real estate market finally cracks and drops?

#20 Trexx on 01.22.21 at 3:24 pm

Uppa Uppa Uppa

Will it ever end?

Can the country handle higher interest rates considering both Fed and Provincial debt?

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.22.21 at 3:24 pm

We had one of the rainiest Winter on record.
Then suddenly, on January 20th, the clouds parted and the sun came out.
The gods are looking down, smiling approvingly.

#22 willinSC on 01.22.21 at 3:26 pm

thanks Garth for all you do.
I am still pondering that 8.4% anti vaxxers from yesterday. I hope they will be unable to get airfares, train tickets or bus passes.

#23 hunterjohns on 01.22.21 at 3:29 pm

Well we all know how crazy markets can get. The real trick will be trying to figure out when this craziness ends in real estate and even much of the stock market. Nobody knows. As long as interest rates stay low..even if they go up a percent or so..house lusting will persist. Ottawa and Washington are going to spend like crazy and central bankers will keep suppressing rates until maybe one day the bond market revolts.

#24 GAV on 01.22.21 at 3:41 pm

Remember how we were told by Mr. Socks (aka Blackface) how a Canadian climate plan to 2030 would give us social license to build pipelines?

Well, the savior of Western Democracy, grampa Biden wiped that out, along with 20,000 jobs in his first hour of office.

We are doomed.

#25 mises and rothbard on 01.22.21 at 3:44 pm

this is all a function of government screwing with the money supply, decades of printing, decades of piling on debt, decades of lowering rates, decades of interfering in the economy picking winners and losers.

what do you expect?

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.22.21 at 3:45 pm

Retail Trade out today pretty much corroborates what you say. On average it was UP 7.5% Nov 2020 vs. 2019 (up always better than down). $55.2 Billion Nov 2020.

[All numbers that follow are % increase Nov 2020 vs 2019]

My personal favorites:

• Beer, wine and liquor stores +11.2
• Cannabis stores +91.1%

The above 2 explain the reckless buying and RE FOMO behaviour.

Then there are the Social Distancing RV and WFH “Forest Primeval Nest Builders”:

• Other motor vehicle dealers +18.4 (e.g., Yachts, Harley’s)
• Furniture stores +23.7
• Electronics and appliance stores +23.2
• Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers +28%
• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores +27.4

And of course, they didn’t much care about travel & how they dressed (except from the waist up):

• Gasoline stations -18.1
• Clothing stores -14.6
• Shoe stores -19.5 (not needed for “waist up” communications)
• Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores -2.6 (pretty sure jewelry on its own went up as it is “waist up” & on “leather” you’re on your own)

——————————-

The Canadian Consumer keeping many shopkeepers afloat, a good thing.

#27 KLNR on 01.22.21 at 3:48 pm

@#7 S.Bby on 01.22.21 at 2:47 pm
“This doesn’t end well”

The housing bears have been saying that for the last 15 years and look where we are now. If an event like Covid can’t kill the housing market then nothing will.

What’s happening with those mortgage deferrals?

ahem, 20+ years.
housing won’t be crashing ’til rates are raised more than a few measly points.

You do not need a housing ‘crash’ to have a huge impact on people’s lives. A static market with rising financing costs would do the trick. – Garth

#28 cramar on 01.22.21 at 3:49 pm

So it’s a certainty! Those who are financially impacted the most by the pandemic do not attend this blog. Makes sense. Those who do not have any money, do not seek financial advice.

And that’s a good way never to have much. – Garth

#29 BlogDog123 on 01.22.21 at 3:52 pm

re: #15 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 01.22.21 at 3:06 pm
And all you inbred southern hillbillies, stop trying to jack up the real estate in our areas!
===

Au contraire, we’ll be coming up to the cottage **MORE** this year. With the COVID thingy making WFH a miserable zombie-like existence, we gotta go somewhere outdoorsy like the cottage. See you soon! We will say ‘hi’ at your cottage-locale grocery store, gas station, park, beach, etc…

#30 Pandemic my derriered on 01.22.21 at 3:54 pm

U read it, about the FLU, RIGHT DUDE??

You mean no flu because of mask-wearing, hand-washing, quarantines and hand-washing? No surprise there. – Garth

#31 Winterpeg on 01.22.21 at 3:54 pm

Typo in #12 . I did get the vax.
Those Health care workers over 60 Manitoba got it first.

#32 Red_falcon on 01.22.21 at 3:58 pm

The sheeple see me rollin’ (in da cash flo)
They hatin’
Patrolling tax and tryin’ to catch me cashflo dirty
Tryin’ to catch me ridin’ dirty
Trying to catch me go first!!

#33 Squire on 01.22.21 at 3:58 pm

#6 The Dude on 01.22.21 at 2:44 pm

As a mid 20-something frontline worker it is more and more discouraging to see this frenzy as it seems like affordable home ownership is a long way off for me the way this is trending. Hopefully one day rational thought prevails. Cheap rent will have to suffice for now!
———————————————————-

Dude, have you not been reading Garth’s posts. You’re young. Rent, save money, be smart. Pick the right partner not a leach or someone house horney. You’ll do well.

Garth, chime in for the lad.

#34 N on 01.22.21 at 3:59 pm

“This doesn’t end well.”

Yes it will not end well. Foresee a Gold Standard being introduced to protect the savers from the spenders. Any other option will not look pretty.

#35 Bartman on 01.22.21 at 4:03 pm

Garth, are we going to go into a complete 1929 style depression if the housing market collapses.

Folks have got to stop thinking in extremes. The real estate market isn’t going to ‘collapse’ but it can still cause a lot of misery to over-extended owners. – Garth

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.22.21 at 4:06 pm

#12 Winterpeg on 01.22.21 at 2:57 pm
Missed the survey due to working shift work.
For what it’s worth:
Age>60; Government worker: (Health care; nurse)
So.. of course no WFH.
Didn’t lose work or income which is 60 were first in line)
Feel grateful to have had a job in a facility that managed the pandemic very well, so far.
Retiring this year. :)
————
Thank you for your service.
Enjoy your retirement. You deserve it.

#37 Dolce Vita on 01.22.21 at 4:08 pm

“CHMC* – is warning darkly if the virus roars back and we see a new recession form, unemployment could spike to 25% and real estate crash by 47.9%.”

Dark indeed.

You know that’s the only thing I have thought about that can mess up seeing the backside of Covid for Canada. Also guesstimated RE would be decimated and many on the street looking for work.

To say the least, not pleasant to see numbers put to those thoughts…distressing.

Sunday will update VAX Scorecard, again tracking mostly deliveries since that is what is needed to get Canada over that +70% herd immunity number (based on Manaus, Brazil % population infected with new cases still on the increase).

Hope it does not happen for if it does we’ll lose more than RE values and jobs, we’ll lose a larger portion than present of the most PRECIOUS commodity of all:

The Good Canadian people.

——————–

*By comparison they make Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, seem a Glee Club singer and dancer.

#38 jal on 01.22.21 at 4:14 pm

Biden, (all gov.), are going to use the “printing press” to pay for everything. … Better food stamps, better welfare, etc.
Opppps I forgot …. pay for all the loans, pay for all the bonds, pay for all the expenses, and pay for all the purchases, pay for all bankrupt companies.

There will not be a need to raise taxes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/janet-yellen-talking-out-both-sides-her-mouth

The truth is, Yellen doesn’t care about the debt, and she, nor the newly installed Biden administration, will ever do anything to address it. The strategy is to spend, spend, spend, and continue to kick the debt-can down the road. In fact, this has been the strategy of both Republicans and Democrats for decades.

Pretty much everybody pays lip-service to the national debt, just as Yellen did. But while politicians of every stripe have jawboned about the need for fiscal responsibility and talked vaguely about “dealing with our rising debt” – someday – the national debt now approaches $28 trillion. This has to make one wonder, at exactly what number does legitimate concern kick in? $30 trillion? $40 trillion?

I’ll give you a hint: there is no number.
When will it end? 2024?

#39 Bob on 01.22.21 at 4:22 pm

You do not need a housing ‘crash’ to have a huge impact on people’s lives. A static market with rising financing costs would do the trick. – Garth

Who cares. So a bunch of people end up house rich and cash poor. At least they have nice places to live, unlike the rest of us. And the government’s busy setting up hyper-inflation to bail them out anyway.

Canada will never have hyperinflation. And try not to be so bitter. You’ll live longer. – Garth

#40 Linda on 01.22.21 at 4:25 pm

So – does today’s debt chart mean folks are paying off or have paid off ‘other’ debt? Or am I just being hopelessly optimistic here? Because I totally agree that this crazy borrowing thing isn’t going to end well IF these were ‘normal’ circumstances. But hey – our PM has shown debt snorfling beavers that they CAN have it all, because the government will shower them with ‘free’ money if they blow all their non-existent loot on getting the goodies they want.

Meanwhile, those of us who were prudent & saved for the future are looking down the barrel of a ton of debt laden fellow citizens who will expect us to cough up the cash to cover their party, because that is ‘fair’. No, it isn’t but unfortunately we are in the minority so if there is a vote, guess who will be tossed out of the troika?

#41 Faron on 01.22.21 at 4:27 pm

#157 Sail Away on 01.22.21 at 2:48 pm

#153 Faron on 01.22.21 at 1:23 pm

Sail Away, regardless of how long your time horizon is, if you provide analysis of a single stock that is the laser focus of retail manipulation and fail to take that into account in your advice, your advice is terrible. In this case, it was to the upside (today).

———–

Don’t take it personal.

Nothing personal about noting a retail piling on. Enjoy! NB: looks like GEO hit your buy point again — ATL. I wonder why that happened?

#42 jess on 01.22.21 at 4:34 pm

amplifying

public health policy : unproven, conspiratorial or bizarre medical claims
oct 9th

Mike Pence wrote a letter to CNP’s President Bill Walton on March 30, 2020 thanking him for supporting Trump and his administration. The letter wrote, “In these difficult days for our Nation and our world, faced with the unprecedented challenges of the coronavirus pandemic, I just wanted to thank you and the Council for National Policy for your support and for consistently amplifying the agenda of President Trump and our Administration.”[11

a group that funds misinformation

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Council_for_National_Policy

first-ever America’s Frontline Doctors White Coat Summit in Washington, D.C.,

Who are the doctors in the viral hydroxychloroquine video?

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jul/29/who-are-doctors-viral-hydroxychloroquine-video/
==============================
Simone Gold Arrested for Role in Capitol Insurrection
— Physician faces charges for entering restricted grounds, disorderly conduct

by Amanda D’Ambrosio, Staff Writer, MedPage Today January 20, 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/22/coronavirus-misinformation-simone-gold-americas-frontline-doctors

#43 Faron on 01.22.21 at 4:36 pm

Wasn’t the CMHC report more about stress testing scenarios than a forecast? A worse case what if? Seems a little overdone by the media to call it a forecasted 40%+ drop.

I still think a steady rate-squeeze on homeowners, credit tightening and perhaps regulations that put investment properties on the market will force RE stagnation potentially mitigated by increased population demand via immigration and the odd Canadian kid here and there.

However, I’d love to see more done to break Canadians of their RE/debt fever dream (says I with my name tied to a share of a half-mil mortgage :-) ).

#44 Dolce Vita on 01.22.21 at 4:37 pm

Had a good laugh at how Oz treats the “Primadonna” Tennis players arrived in Melbourne for the Oz Open complaining about the well monitored “self-isolation” – Oz style.

They (the players) think there are 2 rules: 1 for them to do as they please and the other for the rest of us plebes including leaving around 40,0000 Australians, officials say, stranded across the globe.

Well, it didn’t take long for Novak Djokovic, an eight-time Australian Open champ, to list demands to change the quarantine conditions for players.

Background:”Australian Open: 72 players self-isolating after positive Covid-19 tests on flights carrying tennis stars”

Daniel Andrews, who is the premier of Victoria, told Novak et. al.:

“People are free to provide lists of demands but the answer is no,” Andrews said.

A firm hand. Leadership. Unwavering devotion to the greater good. My kind of person.

————————

Well done Oz.

If the rest of the World did this, we wouldn’t have to worry about UK, South African and/or Brazilian Covid variants in other countries like Canada and Italia.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/australian-open-covid-quarantine/

#45 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 4:38 pm

“This doesn’t end well.”

Can’t end any other way, really.

Just watch Alberta to get an idea of what is about to happen elsewhere in the country.

The melt in Calgary house prices should reach about 40% by 2022 and 80% by 2025.

Similar price reductions will be across the country by
2030. The energy collapse will just be part of the economic realty check that everyone will be facing.

Ugly is coming. I guess about 70% average price reduction over the whole land by end of this decade. Not a good place to invest, for sure, in real estate.

#46 wallflower on 01.22.21 at 4:39 pm

The bubbles are everywhere, except wages.
Remember the 50s 60s and even into 70s? Labour was strong with massive strike activity and government interventions.
Today, the workers whimper yet the bubbles are everywhere.
It feels like we all walk the precipice. Even the well-doers WFHers are in for a ride.
In January 2020 I figured we were in for two years of nasty but maybe it will be three, I am now thinking.
At any rate, methinks this is the year of revelation.
2020 was just the appetizer.

#47 KAC on 01.22.21 at 4:39 pm

31 Pandemic my derriered on 01.22.21 at 3:54 pm
U read it, about the FLU, RIGHT DUDE??

You mean no flu because of mask-wearing, hand-washing, quarantines and hand-washing? No surprise there. – Garth

**********************

So those precautions stopped the flu but didn’t stop the second wave of Covid? Interesting, and a bit scary!

If Covid was just the flu, 18,000 Canadians and 400,000 Americans would not be dead in 10 months nor entire societies be locked down. Seems obvious. – Garth

#48 Regjeg on 01.22.21 at 4:44 pm

Prediction: It (escalating real estate values) is not ever going to end. It may backslide and correct, even severely, at some point, but then resume its upward trajectory.

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.22.21 at 4:44 pm

Indeed, this year’s spring RE market should be crazy.
BTW, can we start bashing Realtards again?

#50 Guelph Guru on 01.22.21 at 4:45 pm

We have increased the money supply by 390B, and devaluated the dollar. Does it not justify the inflation in the real estate asset price? Is it mot just the new normal?
As long as any other country is ready to accept our dollars for food and goods, the party can continue.
We send our Oil overseas to be refined, we import a lot of food. China and India manufacture everything for us. What’s there to worry about? Oh we have a lot of snow, but no one want’s it. Oh well.
And everyone lives happily every after.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.22.21 at 4:46 pm

@#2 Blogdog
“How do I get such a sweet gig??”

++++
Rule #1. You must be a politically useful tool.
Rule #2. You must nod in agreement to everything the PM says….always.
Rule #3. Never stray from the first two rules..

#52 Vasanti on 01.22.21 at 4:46 pm

Every job, we are told, has a job description + performance contract and each person holding the chair is assessed annually.

Now, for all these chair-holders (or is it the leaders???) listed by Garth above:

– Who wrote their performance contracts,

– who assesses their performance annually,

– who decides on their bonus’s/promotions or their demotions or ultimately their pink slips

Or is it that they have a free-ride till the train stops????????

#53 joblo on 01.22.21 at 4:49 pm

Been hearing some great candidates to be Justin’s new GG:

Pamela Anderson
Don Cherry
The Kielburgers ( got some time on their hands)
His Mom Maggie
Gerry Butts
Gretzky
Jody Wilson-Raybould

#54 alexinvestor on 01.22.21 at 4:49 pm

Interest rates won’t rise because the BOC keeps buying government bonds, thus suppressing yields. Even though BOC says they buy at “market rates”, there is no price discovery if they are half the market. All this government borrowing leaks out into inflation … anyone try to buy a boat or car recently ? Of course, the BOC’s inflation measure doesn’t count these things.

#55 Jimmy Zhao on 01.22.21 at 4:59 pm

It was a good poll with great insights.

Garth, perhaps you could offer your polling services to the Conservative Party of Canada so O’Toole can figure out what his policy is.
(Something agreeable to the CBC since O’Toole is like a scared rabbit not willing to offend anyone at the State Broadcaster)

#56 You know val on 01.22.21 at 5:01 pm

We are more like the USA than we really know. What do you think of a dual roasting impeachment of TnT. … Takers anyone?

#57 Dogman01 on 01.22.21 at 5:01 pm

Real Estate – Grasshoppers.

One of the commentators mentioned that many with High Income have no savings.
I have known several “Grasshopper’s” – Big spenders, – apparently called HENRY’s – High Earners Not rich yet.

The only thing that has “saved” them later in life is the Luxury Homes they purchased.

As I am more of an “ant” then a “Grasshopper” , I do recognize I would have been better off being more of a Grasshopper wrt Real Estate.
Unlike my B&D portfolio, I would get to “enjoy” luxury real estate on a daily basis as its value grew.

The one aspect that likely would not work with a Luxury Real Estate retirement plan is that when you need the money and cash out you have to consciously lower your standards of Luxury living accommodations and that is extremely hard psychologically.

Let’s face it, Canada will never allow a significant decline in Real Estate, it would devastate our economy, all the caution talk is just the establishment trying to hide the backstop they are obliged to provide to Real Estate. We have no other driver in our economy . ( as we are killing off the Oil and Gas sector).

Extraordinary Moral Hazard.

#58 KLNR on 01.22.21 at 5:13 pm

@#40 Bob on 01.22.21 at 4:22 pm
You do not need a housing ‘crash’ to have a huge impact on people’s lives. A static market with rising financing costs would do the trick. – Garth

Who cares. So a bunch of people end up house rich and cash poor. At least they have nice places to live, unlike the rest of us. And the government’s busy setting up hyper-inflation to bail them out anyway.

If you played your cards right not all that long ago, you should be both house and cash rich right now.

#59 Freedom First on 01.22.21 at 5:16 pm

Though I pray to dog for our political leaders, be they local, national, or international leaders, I also pray for myself, that His will be done.

Following the advice given on Garth’s #1 Financial Blog has proven to be wise for the blog dogs. Very wise for all ones financial affairs.

Freedom First

#60 Seems different this time ... on 01.22.21 at 5:16 pm

Houses priced well out here in 604 are selling fast but I haven’t heard of any offshore buyers above in helicopters. Yet …

#61 Sail Away on 01.22.21 at 5:20 pm

#42 Faron on 01.22.21 at 4:27 pm

….looks like GEO hit your buy point again — ATL. I wonder why that happened?

————-

Thanks! I have been enjoying the hefty dividend and will continue to hold this. Probably won’t buy more, though.

#62 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 5:24 pm

…Well, who knows what lies ahead? But we do know what’s happening now.-GT


About now- IMHO,Most people has no clue what is happening Today in Canada.

About future- Right, Nobody knows what lies ahead, my best guess (5yrs ago) was 2021-2022 we will probably see big downward direction in Canadian housing market. But you never know, they can pull some new rabbits out of the hat, any given day !

#63 Damifino on 01.22.21 at 5:34 pm

#58 Dogman01

Let’s face it, Canada will never allow a significant decline in Real Estate, it would devastate our economy
————————————

I would face it if I though it was within “Canada’s” power to prevent such a thing. But ain’t so.

#64 Gpr on 01.22.21 at 5:35 pm

The PM in one of his earlier interviews said, the Government is able to borrow at a much lower rate. If we did not spend during this pandemic, folks would have to borrow on credit cards at much higher interest rates. (not verbatim but the gist)

Why would the prices ever fall if Governments can come to the rescue if there’s a recession.

Also when the Governments have borrowed a lot everywhere, can the CBs ever increase rates to a point where housing prices correct.

#65 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 5:40 pm

#48 KAC on 01.22.21 at 4:39 pm
31 Pandemic my derriered on 01.22.21 at 3:54 pm
U read it, about the FLU, RIGHT DUDE??

You mean no flu because of mask-wearing, hand-washing, quarantines and hand-washing? No surprise there. – Garth

**********************

So those precautions stopped the flu but didn’t stop the second wave of Covid? Interesting, and a bit scary!

If Covid was just the flu, 18,000 Canadians and 400,000 Americans would not be dead in 10 months nor entire societies be locked down. Seems obvious. – Garth

—-

if you did what you are told, why things are not better?

#66 Cici on 01.22.21 at 6:05 pm

#11 TheWoosh

Too early to say that with any certainty.

The new COVID variant in Britain is more deadly and more contagious. Some other new variants are even worse.

It’s not for nothing that JT is finally starting to mull hotel quarantines for returning travellers.

And don’t forget our vaccines stocks are trickling in too slowly and to late.

At this point it’s anyone’s guess: could end really well… or really badly.

#67 Catalyst on 01.22.21 at 6:20 pm

People don’t know what a trillion is. I constantly hear people use interchangeably million/billion/trillion. I don’t think many people can visualize how much it actually is.

Also, the reckless money printing of 2020 has distorted reality. Imagine pre-2020 someone came up with the radical idea of building a hyper speed rail line and free post secondary education for all and other big ideas and the cost would be $300Bn. You would get laughed out of the joint and asked for your tax plan etc. But when they need to spend $400Bn in an emergency they created there’s no time to debate, it’s an emergency. No oversight because its an emergency.

People have started to ask the question, why am I paying taxes if you can just print $400Bn? I don’t know you can put that genie back in the bottle and CB’s don’t seem to be in any hurry to do that. In fact they are positioning this as an opportunity to print the next $2T in the US and more around the world.

In this type of world where billions and trillions are created at will, I don’t think the housing mania is unjustified through that lens. People see their purchasing power getting inflated away and are making a land grab now.

#68 Doug t on 01.22.21 at 6:21 pm

CONSUMPTION of non-essential goods is a relatively new behaviour (luxury) in society – it really took off in the early 1900’s and aided by Advertising (plague) soon had people addicted to buying sh*te they really did not need – these goods were originally made to last, were durable and people mostly saved up till they could afford a purchase – now we are SO addicted to consuming sh*te that TPTB have made sure that we have access to “cheap money” and credit so that we stay addicted- it’s sad that this is the existence of humans, that we have been programmed to live this shallow existence – meanwhile landfills grow massively, oceans destroyed, the air polluted and wildlife around the globe threatened because of our greed, envy and stupidity- oh well reap what you sow

#69 SeeB on 01.22.21 at 6:24 pm

#2 BlogDog123a on 01.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Outgoing GG Julie Payette gets:
$149k pension for life
$200k annual expense trough for ‘outgoing GG duties’
Millions in grants for her future charitable funds

For about 3 years on the job.

How do I get such a sweet gig???
—————————————————–

Be the first “something” on the International Space Station. Literally the only credential she had for the GG job :D No background checks required, so they won’t know to use the comment section here against you.

#70 LIAR LIAR on 01.22.21 at 6:25 pm

Did Garth just call the governor a liar? I think so.

And we all know he is.

#71 I’m stupid on 01.22.21 at 6:31 pm

#2 blogdog123a

Instead of thinking how to get a sweet gig like gg, I’m thinking of why we still need a gg. Really our PM needs to contact the Queen. That’s the most pathetic thing I’ve ever heard of.

We speak about equity, unity and diversity in Canada. The truth is that as long as we’re represented by a monarchy that that has enslaved, conquered and oppressed millions of people throughout its history the further we are from equity and unity.

I guess it’s easier for Pms to kneel then it is to stand up.

#72 Drinking on 01.22.21 at 6:35 pm

I am kinda bummed that the Governor General Julie Payette resigned; she was the only alpha male we had in Ottawa! :)
She is a brilliant lady just not so good with people; she would be a kick butt educator in the science field!

There is no logic to real-estate in the current state. As stated, much of it will depend how many more times this virus mutates and if the Vax will guard against them. I read yesterday that it is expected that min, two hundred thousand small business’s will fail this year in Canada, ouch, that is awful!!!

#73 Rico on 01.22.21 at 6:42 pm

The wealth gap is not between wealthy and not wealthy. 70% of Canadians own real estate and almost all will have seen their wealth increase during the pandemic.
The bottom 30% will never own a home and the bottom 10% live below the poverty line.
It’s the gap between middle class and poor that has grown the biggest during the pandemic.

#74 binky barnes on 01.22.21 at 6:52 pm

Nothing is more important to Mr. Justin Trudeau than the integrity of public office. Nothing. So Ms. Payette had to go.

BB

#75 willworkforpickles on 01.22.21 at 6:58 pm

I recently posted…

By 2025 – regardless of an ominous state of depression, normalized rates of 7 or 8 percent will be the lesser of alternative evils.

Prior to this I posted…

The talk on this blog has been endless as always coming from the deep thinkers regarding interest rates and debt in that there are just no worries with either going forward.
They want to remind you constantly since there has been no substantial rate increase in over ten years, its not going to happen now because of the debt by which is their other point of non concern.
Unrestrained rising government debt unlike the last 10 years should be their main concern now if the interest rate question means anything at all to them.
The debt we are realizing now has grown into a monster and becoming viscous and more so with each passing year. Not the cuddly pup it once was anymore and therein lies the difference now where the level of runaway debt creation will soon be affecting interest rates…and this baby’s got teeth…big sharp teeth and is unfed and hungry and slowly going mad.
(i would never do that to my own dog…not ever)

When debt to GDP ratios exceed 77% the real problems begin and already have long ago.
The US debt to GDP ratio was 107% in the 4th qtr. of 2019.
When Trump took over in 2017 the national debt was a hair under $20 trillion dollars US.
With Biden taking over now the debt will be just a hair under $30 trillion US. …by the end of 2021 it will likely be approaching $33 trillion…and on and on.
So what is the debt to GDP ratio now. Significantly larger and growing out of control than the then astronomical calculations at the end of 2019.

This debt being much greater than the entire country’s now declining production rates is and would deeply concern any lender (holder of national debt) as to weather they can be repaid. Nations buying and holding US debt are already backing away from further government debt purchases and even scaling back holdings with future intent to upend the US primary reserve currency status.
Worried lenders always want and demand higher interest rates under increased risk which is now snowballing.
Before the US would ever default on its debt, it will raise interest rates and drastically…with a subsequent recession/depression notwithstanding.
What’s more, reduced demand for US based treasuries can and will further increase interest rates and slow economic growth.
This lowering demand for US treasuries is and will continue to lower the dollar’s value as pissed off foreign holders of US debt see their holdings erode.
Then in itself, rising interest on the debt will become an even greater calamitous predicament in the unsolvable US debt crises to come…and sooner than many believe.

And so…as the US goes, Canada follows…(non identical bond structures notwithstanding)

I could add…there are worse conditions for the economy to find itself in than historically normalized interest rates.
Defaulting on the national debt for one, leading to a near worthless currency and you don’t want to know what can come of that…(starvation)
Losing ones home is still the lesser of evils than starving to death…but not by much.

Many keep asking about the deferrals…(so here goes again) Deferrals ended at the end of Oct.2020…3 months to defaults start to appear end of Jan. 2021…3 months or so from there you should be seeing many foreclosures.
Likely now, and it would be typically so – JT will follow Biden’s lead with a foreclosure freeze of his own.

#76 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:01 pm

The Definition of a Trillion

“And you know what a trillion is, right?”

I know I can’t type it in an 8 digit calculator, I need a scientific one that can do exponents.

As one astronomer put it many years ago, “A trillion is not an astronomical number, it is an economic number. We only use billions.”

So, if I got my zeros correct, a trillion is 73.5 times larger than the size of the visible universe when measured in light years. (1E+12 / 1.36E+10)

——————————-

Understanding the Wealth Gap

“So, yes, the wealth and income gaps are chasming out of control. No coincidence that the majority of people here are (a) professionals, (b) above-income and (c) work from home. Thus we do not represent all of the nation. Far from it.”

I still contend that when adjusted for age the numbers are not so bad as they seem. People tend to start out naked and unable to speak or walk even. That has always been the case. As you age, you get an education, your first job, etc. Most people move up the ladder with education, aptitude, experience and fortune. Maybe you start out as apprentice mechanic but by the time you are 45 you might be running the service shop for a dealer, and earning $100,000 a year. Then mom passes on and you inherit 1/3 of a house. Plus your house is nearing being paid off and has appreciated. If smart, you have spent 30 years topping off you RRSP and more recently your TFSA.

Only a small segment of the population does not see their fortunes rise over time. But these days normal people with good prospects expect to be born on the finish line. It doesn’t work that way.

——————————

Minimum Wages and the Entry Level Job

Not only does it not work that way, but it can’t work that way. Minimum wages are important to prevent the abuse of the most vulnerable in society, but this $15/h thing is going to hugely distort the labor market. In short, those people not worth $15/h will not be employed. The machines will come even faster. Entry level jobs will disappear. Small businesses will close. Prices will rise. It will not “close” the wealth gap but widen it. A few people will be pulled up, but over time many more will be disenfranchised.

Walmart and Amazon will probably survive $15/h, they will just raise prices and cut staff. But many mom & pop shops will close for good, especially in the entertainment industry. No more boutique ice cream or coffee shops, you’ll have to go to Ben & Jerry’s or Starbucks. And prices will be higher. And people will stop tipping. And whew, you though popcorn and a movie were expensive before?

——————————

The Ballad of the Handicapped Mail Girl

I remember back in the day we used to have a happy-go-lucky but handicapped young lady who delivered my mail working in the mailroom. She seemed to think she was an important part of the organization and really enjoy her job, especially the socialization because everyone treated her very well. Then the government passed a law that said minimum wage laws applied to her too. She wasn’t there much longer. Turns out the company viewed employing her as a charitable outreach and she wasn’t all that efficient. The next girl that delivered my mail was not handicapped.

There is a thing called “the law of unintended consequences”. When you force employers to pay more than a job is worth the job goes away.

——————————

Fortune is a Fickle Mistress

Yes, the tech billionaires really seem to have won the jackpot several times over, but if we carve them out of the analysis not every body wins or loses all of the time. It goes back to my punctuated income theory. It is more like a poker game where if you are any good you win some hands and lose others. One year the company does very well and you get a fine bonus. The next year they are sliding a severance package across the desk. One year Trump is in office you are getting paid $45/hour plus overtime to get that pipe welded, the next year Biden wins and the next day you get laid off.

#77 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:14 pm

#16 Leftover on 01.22.21 at 3:08 pm

“At least in Joe Biden’s USA they tax net capital gains on primary residences the same way they do on other investments (more or less…).”

But they can also deduct mortgage expenses like they do on other investments. It’s not apples to apples.

#78 TurnerNation on 01.22.21 at 7:18 pm

They are talking about interprovincial bans/Berlin walls? Right on schedule for January…

How long will this social and economic re-set be lasting?
Back in July I said 2022-23.
Some evidence is here, this is almost impossible – oh yeah they call it a ‘recovery plan’. Sure. Flip that 180 degrees, to make sense of the NewsPeak.
It’s a shut down plan – the colours are control mechanisms. 28 more days right?!

https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/covid-19/recovery.html#green

Green level
After herd immunity has been achieved as a result of widespread vaccinations to the public.

All conditions are lifted, with the exception of face masks (facial coverings) which remain recommended to wear in public when ill. Evidence-based decision making for loosening or retaining measures will continue to inform all Public Health recommendations as the province cautiously transitions to the green level of recovery. In the meantime, all Public Health measures must stay in place including physical distancing and mask wearing.

……..

As noted SEVEN months ago:

#115 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 12:33 pm
This is not going away folks. I expect into 2022-23 until a new monetary system is maybe rolled out. Who knows but seems a likely plan.
Bank of Canada has E-currency ready to roll.
During the shutdown what happened? Bank of Canada and the Fed each hired Blackrock to do their new bidding. Then crushed interest rates.
Nothing to see here folks. Score: Bankers 1. People o.

#79 Sunny South on 01.22.21 at 7:23 pm

Missed yesterday’s opportunity, so here goes (apologies in advance for the poor quality limerick).
There was a financial sage from the east coast,
Who loved his blog almost,
As much as his wife and dogs,
Except for blog hog dogs,
And lest it needs to be repeated,
Cross the line and you’ll be deleted.

As for today’s issue, IMHO mortgage rates will never be allowed to return to anything close to historic norms as no government seeking election or re-election will ever allow that to happen.
Of interest was CMHC’s statement that only 1% of existing mortgages are under water, and of that 1%, 70% were condo mortgages.
FWIW.

#80 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:23 pm

#23 willinSC on 01.22.21 at 3:26 pm
thanks Garth for all you do.
I am still pondering that 8.4% anti vaxxers from yesterday. I hope they will be unable to get airfares, train tickets or bus passes.

—————————–

Why? Everyone else will have their vax and we can let Darwin take care of them.

#81 Sail Away on 01.22.21 at 7:25 pm

Money, debt, economic systems, systems of government…

All of it is pure fabricated construct- call it a game with rules to simplify mass cooperation.

None of it is necessary. Everything we do could be done without these constructs.

Think about it… then go out and stockpile mass amounts of ‘wealth’ because you are one of the few who understand the absurdity.

#82 Phylis on 01.22.21 at 7:30 pm

Julie probably demanded her org actually did some work for the first time in many years. In her prior lines, people died if they didn’t perform. Will we get to see the report?

#83 Proverbs 17:28 on 01.22.21 at 7:32 pm

#9 Shirl Clarts on 01.22.21 at 2:54 pm

Anyone know when Preferreds like ZPR and CPD are going to peak? Can we expect to see 12-14 bucks before 2022?

———–>

Shirl, no longer will I question your intellectual capacity when reading your comments.

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt”. As if buying them in the first place wasn’t enough to convince me!

#84 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:34 pm

#46 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 4:38 pm

“The melt in Calgary house prices should reach about 40% by 2022 and 80% by 2025.”

Exaggerate much?

The only way that can happen is if there were a mass exodus from Alberta the likes of which have never been seen.

Houses are sort of a commodity in some ways. They won’t ever cost less than they cost to build unless you have Detroit style exodus. I’m not counting the ones that are close to end of life and need to be rebuilt, but those ones are usually on prime real estate.

#85 Marcia M on 01.22.21 at 7:36 pm

Dorothy Turner for Governor General!

(If she can put up with Garth so well, she can certainly handle all our whiny parliamentarians)

#86 Prairie Oysters on 01.22.21 at 7:41 pm

#17 Happy prairie guy on 01.22.21 at 3:16 pm

Despite Garth’s concern about continually rising house prices, there are exceptions. Our small town an hour from the outskirts of Winnipeg which has typically seen no rise in house prices is still stable even though we are getting a few people buying from Winnipeg. We paid $119k for our beautifully restored 1905 bungalow on a large town lot in 2013 and would be lucky if we could get 125k now.

%%%%%

I think Garth was referring to places where people would want to live, not… Well, you know!

#87 Paul on 01.22.21 at 7:46 pm

There are so many buyers they out number sellers multiple times over. A regular Scarboro Bungalow just sold 95 showings = almost 300 sets of feet through in A week. There were 22 offers sold $120,000 over list,priced a little low but not that low. If there was ever a time a to unload a older dated house this is it.

#88 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:48 pm

#66 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 5:40 pm

“if you did what you are told, why things are not better?”

Your argument fails to consider the possibility that things could be far worse.

I guess we don’t really know for sure, because some people just won’t be satisfied until they have seen the worst case scenario for themselves and can use that as the “I have seen it with my own eyes” scenario. They aren’t going to believe until mom dies.

I have personally never had an airbag deploy. Never actually even needed the seat belts. But I am not sure that based on my own experience they shouldn’t be there, because other people have needed them from time to time, and you never know when your number is up. Might not even be your fault. It could be some crazy drunk kid whose idiot father lent him the Mustang. 9 times out of 10 you’ve missed him just due to timing and he’ll hit a tree. That doesn’t mean the risk isn’t there. I buckle up.

#89 cuke and tomato picker on 01.22.21 at 7:49 pm

Number 77 you are right I learned that in 1966 in my economics 101 class. However the case of the handicapped girl is a special case and should have been allowed to continue but forcing a employer to pay a person more than they are worth is a problem. Students doing light duties while they are learning maybe happy to work for less but no employer should be able to take advantage of an employee.

#90 Northshore guy on 01.22.21 at 7:50 pm

Garth,
Where did my comment go? My first ever deleted ? ;)

#91 cramar on 01.22.21 at 7:53 pm

#29 cramar on 01.22.21 at 3:49 pm

So it’s a certainty! Those who are financially impacted the most by the pandemic do not attend this blog. Makes sense. Those who do not have any money, do not seek financial advice.

And that’s a good way never to have much. – Garth

——————

True! But the real challenge is to convince those without money that they need become financially literate. Cannot be done here, since largely they don’t come here. Too bad the provincial governments don’t mandate financial literary in primary school. Then maybe kids could educate their parents.

#92 zee on 01.22.21 at 7:55 pm

Garth its crazy out there in the housing market, BOC is being so untruthful.

Fraud mortgages are everywhere!

#93 SoggyShorts on 01.22.21 at 7:56 pm

#81 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:23 pm
#23 willinSC on 01.22.21 at 3:26 pm
thanks Garth for all you do.
I am still pondering that 8.4% anti vaxxers from yesterday. I hope they will be unable to get airfares, train tickets or bus passes.

—————————–

Why? Everyone else will have their vax and we can let Darwin take care of them.

****************************
Come on man, you know that’s not how it works.
Of those who do get vaxxed a significant percentage won’t develop strong antibodies for whatever genetic reasons (this is part of why they say it’s 95% effective, not 100%)
So those 8% anti-vaxxers aren’t just a danger to each other and themselves, they could kill the unlucky too.

Also, there are good people who would get the jab, but can’t (because they’re on chemo or w/e)- they too will remain vulnerable.

#94 Faron on 01.22.21 at 7:56 pm

#79 TurnerNation on 01.22.21 at 7:18 pm

How long will this social and economic re-set be lasting

My guess? It will last precisely as long as metabolic activity takes place in your brain. And then, poof, it will be gone.

#95 NeverSayNever on 01.22.21 at 8:04 pm

This is for you #5 yesterday….

The world is much better
has no longer a frown
The White House at last
Has got rid of the “Clown”
Nary a sound
Not even a tweet
The account is shut down
To make it complete…

For all you do Garth…thanks

______________________

In came a ridin
This guy they call Biden
First thing he does is cancel XL
Telling his neighbour you can go to hell
Many now live in a world of fear
Secretly they hope he won’t last a year
Mumbling, stumbling fumbling and bumbling
No doubt in my mind things will start crumbling
It’ll could be much worse if that person called Harris…
Please God.. No… protect us and spare us
The “clown” may be gone
But the circus goes on.

#96 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 01.22.21 at 8:04 pm

Eventually the GTA and Vancouver area will price themselves out of reach for most middle class Canadians. Good luck attracting future teachers, firefighter and police officers to those area once that happens.

This is what is happening to the San Francisco Bay area. Despite high public sector wages.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.22.21 at 8:18 pm

@#83 Phylis
“Julie probably demanded her org actually did some work for the first time in many years….”

+++++

I was thinking the same thing after reading a news piece about Payette’s resignation.

” She just didnt understand how Public Works functioned…….”

An astronaut….couldnt grasp……. how….Public Works……functioned.

Another highly motivated person ( and possibly a yeller and screamer) crushed by the bloated,…… protected, …….invulnerable…….bureaucracy……

We are many, we are Legion, we are PWC

#98 Wrk.dover on 01.22.21 at 8:18 pm

#139 IHCTD9 on 01.22.21 at 11:08 am
#115 Wrk.dover on 01.22.21 at 7:25 am
#180 IHCTD9 on 01.21.21 at 9:01 am

transfers heat over the large surface area (about 22 sq. ft. in my case) cools, falls, and exits the bottom rear of the stove into a conventional chimney, then up and out of the building.

So far the stove normally runs with a bell temp almost 3X hotter than the chimney, so I get little radiant heat off the main chimney pipe.

—————————————-

With 88 sq ft of chimney exposed, you’ve doubled net.

Plus the ton of masonry stays hot longer than the stove.

My chimney is brick, with 8″ sked 40 liner.

———————–

133 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.22.21 at 10:42 am
#115 Wrk.dover on 01.22.21 at 7:25 am

I don’t condone wood heat, anywhere that an air inversion is possible. I’m on the Oceans edge.

#99 Tyberius on 01.22.21 at 8:22 pm

“The fifteen grand is a big deal. It can be accessed immediately and serve as a deposit on a home, although it’s technically a tax credit. It’s available to anyone who hasn’t owned in three years, and Washington wants to boost the number of buyers by almost a third. The results? Inevitable. Prices will go up as a shortage of inventory is exaggerated and once again America is on the road to the kind of excessive home ownership and speculation that led to the 2005 crash. But that was 16 years ago.

Nobody remembers.”
—————————————————————–

Especially ‘uncle Joe’.

Real Estate Crash II anyone? The “Big Short II” too?

Gotta love MMT!

#100 Drinking on 01.22.21 at 8:38 pm

#86 Marcia M

To keep Garth in line, Dorothy, (I suspect) would be more alpha :); there is no way T2 would chance that again!

Although, I think that Dorothy would make an excellent GG.. Forward your idea to the Queen, she may have something to say about it!! :)

#101 Robert Ash on 01.22.21 at 8:42 pm

Greenspan, Macklem, Nero… Thanks for that one…. I like the comments, that provide a good laugh.. Well done!

It will end quite poorly, since it just doesn’t make sense any longer. I was a little shocked to see B Ripley’s negative Current account stats… These are warning signs, and we had some real productivity problems, pre CV….. Our Fed Leaders, don’t like to make money from our Resources… What else realistically do we have… So keep track of the Performance Bond rates, at the Various Auction houses, RB in Western Canada, will be a good better best investment, in the near term. I hate to see this, potential train wreck, but the 10 Year is over 1.10 as of Jan 22/21, was 0.93 Jan 4/21, the Bond Market can only be conditioned for so long, or the currency will start to fluctuate. I think Investors, anywhere will be reluctant to commit 10 year funds, for just 1.10 Percent. Interest rates, and QE, are finite, in my opinion… Also the real effects of Inflation, that hit the pocket book, are starting to take affect.

#102 Mickey on 01.22.21 at 8:51 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.22.21 at 8:18 pm
@#83 Phylis
“Julie probably demanded her org actually did some work for the first time in many years….”
+++++
I was thinking the same thing after reading a news piece about Payette’s resignation.
” She just didnt understand how Public Works functioned…….”
An astronaut….couldnt grasp……. how….Public Works……functioned.
Another highly motivated person ( and possibly a yeller and screamer) crushed by the bloated,…… protected, …….invulnerable…….bureaucracy……
We are many, we are Legion, we are PWC

———————————————
Not to worry the other carefully handpicked astronaut was boosted into higher orbit in order to monitor planet earth’s foreign affairs. After silently observing last year’s rail blockages.

#103 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 9:00 pm

#89 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:48 pm

#66 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 5:40 pm

“if you did what you are told, why things are not better?”

Your argument fails to consider the possibility that things could be far worse.

Your argument fails to consider the possibility that things that your are told may not be correctly addressing the situation.

#104 S.Bby on 01.22.21 at 9:03 pm

Those people who have gone all-in on real estate have been handsomely rewarded by the central banks. Tax free gains on the principal residence and massive gains over the years on most real estate. Governments paying lip-service to reigning in prices only fuel the market higher. Anybody waiting to buy hoping for lower prices has lost out big-time over the last 20 years. We are encouraged by ever lower interest rates to take on more and more debt. The big banks don’t care about moral hazard because the CMHC and the government has their backs.

#105 westcdn on 01.22.21 at 9:10 pm

It annoys me that dysfunctional celebrity opinions count more than mine. Many to be respected but don’t confuse destiny with hubris – think Looteries and the chances. I know of many people who deserve better. Too many cheaters who only take care of #1.

I would even say to the Pope why do you want to meet me? (I fantasize). I have my beliefs and my actions can be selfish. I will answer later and probably have a hot future or a return to the cold. YOLO does not absolve me of responsibility or answering truthful (as long as you can handle the truth).

Sin City, a movie that stays in my mind. An old man dies so a young woman can live… fair trade. I never have been keen on being pampered through it can be fun.

It looks like some of my genes will survive. It did not look good for a while.

#106 Drinking on 01.22.21 at 9:11 pm

#72 I’m stupid

The ironic part of it all is that most Brits/Canucks could care less about the Commonwealth or even know anything about it. So yes, the monarchy is a very outdated system and should be abolished; the Commonwealth could work much better if there was a will to cooperate, ha, it is all about Asia now!!!

#107 Tyberius on 01.22.21 at 9:11 pm

CMHC – is warning darkly if the virus roars back and we see a new recession form, unemployment could spike to 25% and real estate crash by 47.9%.

Hahaha… 47.9%? How about rounding up to 50%, or even 48%.
I guess it sounds more ‘official’ if it’s stated to the nearest tenth of a percent. So ridiculous it’s funny.

#108 Tron Light on 01.22.21 at 9:17 pm

The IMF to governments: “Spend as much as you can and then spend more.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-imf/spend-as-much-as-you-can-imf-head-urges-governments-worldwide-idUSKBN29K1XJ

#109 TurnerNation on 01.22.21 at 9:19 pm

Are people in NB really putting up with this? Imagine reading this list a few years ago. A list of perverse suffering made up by the Kamp Commandants.
People have themselves convince that this abnormal is based upon science and for “our health”.
Frankly we made need this to go on for a few more years until more people wake up.

https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/covid-19/recovery/lockdown.html


We know that the globalists’ plans do not include property rights. How are they going to get us off our land and into tiny ” Smart” condos in our UN “Smart cities”?
Let’s see…when Bond prices go DOWN then Interest rates go UP. What if…what if…Kanada’s debt becomes downgraded or in doubt. Bonds fall, rates spike.
Could this be how it all will be accomplished?
All wars are bankers wars, the wags tell us.
Bank of Canada’s e-currency waits in the wings.
Of course all of this is the conjecture.

At this point anything is a possibility. Globalists have shut down most of this country; errected borders and checkpoints. This IS a de facto military event. Occupation Lite. Politicians and heads being purged non stop now; The GG was the latest. This is a soft COUP.
What other ingredients would you need?

Cities are closed, blackened; borders locked tight; leaders being terminated all over. Military curfews and blackouts are in place. Citizens are lines up outside grocery stores in open air Camps.
Some of you think is all if for our Health. Who’s side are you on.

#110 Drinking on 01.22.21 at 9:30 pm

#46 Albertastrophe

That will never happen! Albertans are a resilience bunch and they will move forward and progress. I cannot help to think if the oilsands where located in Ontario or Quebec how much backlash there would have been about one lousy 3ft diameter pipe that will now be shipped by rail.

But hey, Biden and T2 had a marvelous talk today, Biden is going to be ( as long as the guy lives) a real thorn (much worst then the other guy) in our side! Invest accordingly!

#111 the Jaguar on 01.22.21 at 9:31 pm

I read the Robert Ash post @#101 Robert Ash on 01.22.21 at 8:42 pm and I near jumped out of my skin!
Like sticking your finger in a light socket.

I guess I could apply myself to learning all about Performance Bonds, RB in Western Canada, and ten year funds.

Maybe I’ll just watch the newest episode of Blue Bloods instead.
Guess I’ll never be part of the ‘one percent’.
I’m ok with that. I’m part of the two percent.
People with green eyes. I have a comfortable life. I’ll stick with my current gig.

#112 Canuck on 01.22.21 at 9:35 pm

“This won’t end well”

The most overused phrase on this blog has once again reared it’s ugly head. I have been reading this blog since the early 2000’s I believe and I have read this so many times… and during that time, real estate overall has ended well.

With Biden throwing out money to anyone who can catch and wants to buy a house, rates won’t be going up for a while. Yes, I realize the bond market dictates mortgage rates but that can and will be manipulated too.

For those of you condescending snobs who like to pat yourselves on the back for having money and think you’re so savvy even though you need to ask Garth for free investing advise, make sure you stick out your chest with pride for locking in a rate that won’t be moving for some time.

#113 Doug t on 01.22.21 at 9:48 pm

My buddy texted me earlier that he saw Julie Payette walking out of a cannabis store with a huge bag and another bag from the liquor store – party on Julie party on

#114 Drill Baby Drill on 01.22.21 at 9:50 pm

Even if the people who have large mortgages still maintain employment they will still have to face inflation and increased costs due to having to work from the office again. This will lead to being tapped out and be forced to sell and downsize their homes. This does not take into account increasing mortgage rates or an oil shock either. This is not a good outlook and I believe it to be a fairly accurate prediction.

#115 Quintilian on 01.22.21 at 9:52 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-governor-isn-t-worried-about-a-housing-bubble-1.1551734

How can it be that anyone with the most basic knowledge of economics can see that something is very wrong, and Tiff Macklem can’t?

“But the governor says he’s not worried about the country’s real estate market”

#116 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 9:57 pm

#85 Nonplused

#46 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 4:38 pm

“The melt in Calgary house prices should reach about 40% by 2022 and 80% by 2025.”

Exaggerate much?

The only way that can happen is if there were a mass exodus from Alberta the likes of which have never been seen.

Houses are sort of a commodity in some ways. They won’t ever cost less than they cost to build unless you have Detroit style exodus. I’m not counting the ones that are close to end of life and need to be rebuilt, but those ones are usually on prime real estate.

___________________________________________

You don’t live in Alberta, I can tell.

There WILL be an exodus. It is in all the talk I hear, everywhere. Educated, employable people throughout the province are already calculating how to get out without losing everything.

Without the ridiculous subsidies it has gotten, the dinosaur energy industry will be crippled by 2030.

The bungling of the Heritage Fund means there is no ‘Second Chance’ possible for Alberta. The climate crisis will shut down the province effectively.

Expect to see the population drop from 4.4 million to 3.2 by 2023. Then to about 2.6 by 2026.

By 2030 Alberta will be about 1.8 million at worst. 2.5 million at best.

Detroit.

Close to half of homes here will be empty, available for pennies on the dollar. Might be a good cheap retirement getaway, at least in Edmonton.

#117 KNOW IT ALL on 01.22.21 at 10:13 pm

IT WON’T END WELL is for sure.

Just like any other asset bubble – what’s the difference?

Just don’t be to GREEDY and get out while your ahead.

Buy low – Sell High.

Garth – You and all your partners got wealthy following this same principle. Don’t lie to yourself. Somebody had to give so you could receive.

#118 Billy Buoy on 01.22.21 at 10:17 pm

Recession????

Without CB printing, we’ve been in a depression since 2009.

#119 Drinking on 01.22.21 at 10:22 pm

I am one of these Canadian’s that very much respect what Rex has to say as I so Garth. Rex is not always right but his heart is in the right place as well as Garth and all the readers and commentators. Many of us are miles apart in Garth’s recent survey, I am not even close to it and could care less. But, what I do care about or use to was this country. We truly have the worst leadership not only Federally but Provincially, they have given up long ago on what people (majority) not (minority) know on what makes a country work.

There is a big difference in a so called (influencers) and a family working there butts off in all sectors; especially the great farmers out there supplying us with food, the fisherman, the oil drillers, the builders, the one’s who go out there everyday in any type of weather to keep this country going.

Unfortunately the influencers, not common sense seems to be winning. Rex wrote a realistic story today, read some of the comments, interesting! We really need to change; perhaps a partnership with the North regions would perhaps be a better solution as to what is happening in this so called country; just a thought!!

Here is the story: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-were-i-an-albertan-today-id-be-asking-whats-the-point

#120 Doug in London on 01.22.21 at 10:28 pm

The results? Inevitable. Prices will go up as a shortage of inventory is exaggerated and once again America is on the road to the kind of excessive home ownership and speculation that led to the 2005 crash. But that was 16 years ago. Nobody remembers.
———————————————————
Yes, the only thing we learn from history is most people learn nothing from history. I’m 60 years old now and learned that many years ago.

Interestingly, the market for cheap homes in the States slid a little while ‘luxury’ homes (over $1 million) grew 90%.
———————————————–
If you own one of those luxury homes, now would be a good time to sell it and take your profit, buy one of those cheap homes, and be mortgage free.

#121 DON on 01.22.21 at 10:47 pm

Just two days ago James a lawyer blog dog provided some intel on his increased income due to divorce. He also said things aren’t always as they appear. Garth’s survey highlights the divide. If those folks on the other side of the grand canyon stop spending than we all will be affected in some way or another.

Much like the premise of the movie ‘Final Destination’ trying to outsmart death. They think they have, that is until they haven’t. The whole foundation is based on debt levels we have never witnessed. Th US gov let their housing bubble burst…maybe they didn’t see it coming like a FEW orhers did.

#122 KG on 01.22.21 at 10:58 pm

@#23
I hope the vaxxers don’t reproduce. Got enough sheep already.
Sorry, had to be bitter.

#123 Steerage on 01.22.21 at 11:03 pm

#46 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 4:38 pm

“This doesn’t end well.”

Can’t end any other way, really.

Just watch Alberta to get an idea of what is about to happen elsewhere in the country.

The melt in Calgary house prices should reach about 40% by 2022 and 80% by 2025.

Similar price reductions will be across the country by
2030. The energy collapse will just be part of the economic realty check that everyone will be facing.

Ugly is coming. I guess about 70% average price reduction over the whole land by end of this decade. Not a good place to invest, for sure, in real estate.
………………

You must be the inbred cousin of the apocalypse ad nauseam dude…. pointless drivel

#124 KG on 01.22.21 at 11:20 pm

Garth, if possible, skip publishing my comment @#23. I do not want to be bitter.

#125 45north on 01.22.21 at 11:23 pm

Cottagers stay the hell away

the poster claims to live in cottage country but provides no evidence. He provides no location. He could be in Nova Scotia or Manitoba. Anywhere really. He could be in a condo in downtown Toronto.

#126 Shiny1 on 01.22.21 at 11:32 pm

Last re. correction in 2008 or so, hit our southern neighbours hard. We pretty much made a clean escape due to rising commodity prices (oil, gold, etc.).
If we have another correction around the corner, it’s starting to look like Dr. Copper and friends may be willing to come to the rescue this time??

#127 Two-thirds on 01.22.21 at 11:35 pm

#58 Dogman01 on 01.22.21 at 5:01 pm

I was thinking the same thing – moral hazard is now hard to distinguish from official government policy. As SM used to say, “herdonomics” rules, and when >70% of voters are property “owners” (some of multiple ones), policy will be dictated to favor them. Nobody is allowed to fail anymore, in T2’s Canada!

As for the CMHC article: it could be argued that the scenarios are there to emphasize what would happen “without government intervention” which is verbatim from the text. Or in other words, the worst case scenario could be used to frighten the heck out of policymakers into bailing out the housing market, should that case in the stress test ever happen.

Remember Bernanke’s and Paulson’s dire warnings to the U.S. Congress in 2008? No? History lesson:

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94953494

A quaint $700 billion aid package on a 3-page long document (which is more than a shutdown Parliament got for a $340 billion and counting package for us).

They opened Pandora’s box and it cannot be closed now.

So, party on, comrades! T2 has your back and he will borrow so you don’t have to (but if you do, you go ahead bigly and help grow Canada’s consumption-based economy). After all, by the Finance Minister’s admission: low rates allow to run big deficits, on the cheap, so why can’t we citizens do the same?

Moral hazard. Cheap rates. Ignorance of history. The New Normal. Building back better (with some demolition required, perhaps?)

What else is there to sustain Canada’s economy if oil and gas is being euthanized, manufacturing has shrunk and no dominant global Canadian companies are left (like Nortel, RIM, etc.) Sure, we got Shopify, and we export a heck of a lot of agricultural, lumber, and cheap clean power to the US. But what else can realistically take the place of the FIRE industries’ contribution to GDP, should the RE market fall??

Anyone?

No, it won’t end well, but it will also not end soon. The world has been kicking the can down the road since 2008, almost as long as this site has existed, and here we are, the blackest of black swans and housing is breaking records. Again.

Good beavers of the North will listen to Tiff, T2, Freeland, the Jag and the bunch, who tell them what they want to hear. 4 more years of this at least, coming our way.

RE is too big to fail and this time is different. Because it’s 2021 and the budget will balance itself.

D’Oh Canada!

#128 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 11:42 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQUXuQ6Zd9w

War Pigs/Black Sabbath
—————————–
Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerer of death’s construction
In the fields, the bodies burning
As the war machine keeps turning
Death and hatred to mankind
Poisoning their brainwashed minds
Oh lord, yeah!
Politicians hide themselves away
They only started the war
Why should they go out to fight?
They leave that role to the poor, yeah
Time will tell on their power minds
Making war just for fun
Treating people just like pawns in chess
Wait till their judgement day comes, yeah!
Now in darkness, world stops turning
Ashes where their bodies burning
No more war pigs have the power
Hand of God has struck the hour
Day of judgement, God is calling
On their knees, the war pigs crawling
Begging mercy for their sins
Satan laughing, spreads his wings
Oh lord, yeah!

Have a nice weekend!

#129 Dogman01 on 01.22.21 at 11:48 pm

“TORONTO — Young people and wealthy, white Canadians were more likely to travel overnight over the holidays despite provincial lockdown measures, according to new analysis of mobile phone data.”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/pm-urges-canadians-to-cancel-travel-plans-after-data-reveals-1m-travelled-over-holidays-1.5278476

Anyone noticing the growing racism permitted in our MSM?

“Racism does not have a good track record. It’s been tried out for a long time and you’d think by now we’d want to put an end to it instead of putting it under new management. ” ― Thomas Sowell

#130 Moses71 on 01.22.21 at 11:49 pm

Yes houses rising to unaffordable oblivion.
Except in Calgary ha. Zero land transfer taxes practically, tax breaks, mountains, no bs in-laws and detached <$500k. Hello. Backyard galore and NO RATS and minimal bedbugs nor the assaulting other bugs you find in Ontario I.e. Owen Sound/ Muskokaface. Still wearing sweaters this winter.
Your choice

#131 Reggae Bob on 01.22.21 at 11:58 pm

No, it doesn’t end well. Talk to the families of the over 20,000 dead Canadians who Justin Trudeau didn’t stand up for when he called Canadians “racist” and border checks “knee jerk”.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeau-wants-to-deal-with-the-border-a-year-too-late

The list of questionable and outright incompetent policies and day to day decisions by Justin Trudeau and his bizarre choices for high level and cabinet positions are frightful and increasingly dangerous.

Trudeau now swings from jamming the border wide open to planes loads of Covid infected immigrants to slamming the door shut long after the virus is inside the house ravaging the occupants.

Liberals loyalties are obvious limited to vote buying. Just last week we found that Trudeau had quietly exempted many countries with large amounts of migrants filling carriers scheduled to land in Canada where the occupants of every row were carrying Covid into Canada and self isolating “in the honor system”. It was months ago that the RCMP reported to the media that tens of thousands of incomes were leaving bogus numbers and fake addresses so that no contract tracing could be done? Why? Didn’t any Liberal Members in the GTA sprawling migrant vote cache feel that their numbers were strong enough?

This is no longer a matter of giving Trudeau” a break” . Honestly if one more stride Aubrey says that to me I’ll scream. He’s had his break. People have died in the tens of thousands. More thousands will die due to Trudeaus incompetent Vaccine Procurement screw up.

There are no border checks, hot air alone won’t stop plane loads of sick from entering if Trudeau continue to skate around his own pronouncement and exempt travelers from specific geographies Covid infected into soft GTA ridings.

The time for panic is now. Trudeau says “ don’t travel”, but he doesn’t mean that. Yes, I won’t travel ….. to Canada, a killing field. I’m living elsewhere since this all started, in a country where the first case of Covid was taken seriously by a competent government. Why would I go to where a politician stands by a plays the fiddle as thousands are dead and dying, while in my country only 90 have died by comparison. Trudeau vs a military junta. Normally you’d laugh at that comparison, but Trudeau makes me fear for my life, our general is a sweet guy set side by side with a Liberal.

#132 Nonplused on 01.23.21 at 12:07 am

#103 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 9:00 pm
#89 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:48 pm

#66 theoryAndPractice on 01.22.21 at 5:40 pm

“if you did what you are told, why things are not better?”

Your argument fails to consider the possibility that things could be far worse.

Your argument fails to consider the possibility that things that your are told may not be correctly addressing the situation.

————————–

No, I think I will give you that. I don’t know what the best way to address the situation is and maybe it could have been done better. But I also will not take the position that the measures that were taken had no affect.

#133 Nonplused on 01.23.21 at 12:20 am

#115 Albertastrophe on 01.22.21 at 9:57 pm

You don’t live in Alberta, I can tell.

—————————

Umm well yes I do, born and raised although I spent some time in BC and state side.

Despite Keystone not being built and maybe not ever Canada looks to have shipped a record amount of oil to the US in 2020. What won’t go buy pipeline will go by rail. Not the best way to do it, but Buffet owns many of the railroads and also makes hefty political donations. That is kind of how US business/politics works. They very much have a “bugger thy neighbor” attitude down there. Why be competitive if you can just get the competition legislated out of existence?

If there is a problem with our form of “capitalism”, much of it lies in the way political donations are allowed. The corporations and billionaires have way too much influence, and that is the way they like it. Or the way an upstart like Parler can be deplatformed in just one weekend without recourse.

Anyway your forecasts of the end of the oil industry are probably premature. It will happen one day but in the short term there are no alternatives that scale. They just aren’t building Teslas fast enough to meaningfully impact gasoline demand. And they aren’t building nuclear power plants, wind, and solar fast enough to meaningfully power anything, let alone the Teslas.

#134 willinSC on 01.23.21 at 12:30 am

#81 nonplussed

Good point

#135 Bloff Witzer You're in the sitatation cloakroom on 01.23.21 at 12:32 am

What you people that keep saying we heard that about house prices 15 years ago, 20 years ago need to go back and look at what has happened. The real estate market should have corrected at multiple points but every time there was some event that prompted some intervention that propped it up. Many people have not really been able to afford their housing for years and are taking from some where else to pay for it.

#136 Nonplused on 01.23.21 at 12:35 am

#93 SoggyShorts on 01.22.21 at 7:56 pm
#81 Nonplused on 01.22.21 at 7:23 pm
#23 willinSC on 01.22.21 at 3:26 pm
thanks Garth for all you do.
I am still pondering that 8.4% anti vaxxers from yesterday. I hope they will be unable to get airfares, train tickets or bus passes.

—————————–

Why? Everyone else will have their vax and we can let Darwin take care of them.
****************************
Come on man, you know that’s not how it works.
Of those who do get vaxxed a significant percentage won’t develop strong antibodies for whatever genetic reasons (this is part of why they say it’s 95% effective, not 100%)
So those 8% anti-vaxxers aren’t just a danger to each other and themselves, they could kill the unlucky too.

Also, there are good people who would get the jab, but can’t (because they’re on chemo or w/e)- they too will remain vulnerable.

————————–

Come on man, it was a bit of dark jest. Maybe if the anti-vaxxers understood that they are putting themselves at risk and others at risk, but the rest of us are going to go “here is your Darwin award and we need the hospital back so I’ll call you an uber to get home” they would reconsider their position.

Is the spirit of Monty Python so gone? Cancel culture I guess. Seems like Dave Shappelle is the only guy still standing who can challenge cancel culture and get away with it. Well him and Ricky Gervais but Ricky is like a honey badger, he don’t back down from nothing. He has “F-you” money.

#137 willinSC on 01.23.21 at 12:40 am

93 Soggyshorts

if there is not a real medical reason then let’s fine the living S*** out of them for endangering others. Same for the boneheads wearing the vented masks.

#138 Nonplused on 01.23.21 at 12:49 am

#98 Wrk.dover on 01.22.21 at 8:18 pm

“I don’t condone wood heat, anywhere that an air inversion is possible. I’m on the Oceans edge.”

I don’t know how we got on wood heat, but I agree and would go further. If people spent more time and money making sure their house is properly insulated and has a 95% furnace, that would do more to reduce so-called green house gases then all the wood stoves in the world will. And for those who are going to immediately jump in and say “but trees are carbon neutral because they take CO2 out of the air!” I say, what do you think they do with the CO2 that comes from cars? They can’t tell where the molecules come from. You are helping nothing, at great expense and effort. Plus it’s smoky and smelly. And it doesn’t scale. We can’t all burn wood as a primary heat source or there would be no forests.

What we really need to do if we want to get CO2 emissions down is somehow kill all the ants and termites. Farty little bastards. But somehow I fear that will have wide-ranging unintended consequences.

#139 willworkforpickles on 01.23.21 at 1:08 am

#80 Sunny South
“IMHO mortgage rates will never be allowed to return to anything close to historic norms as no government seeking election or re-election will ever allow that to happen.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

You are one of many in a very large camp who believe this and want it this way.

Canadian interest rates will move succinctly with US rates to remain competitive with its no.1 trading partner.
A different bond structure from the US means little overall. Mind boggling new government debt creation in the plans already underway in the US over the next 4 years will be key in driving rates up. The debt to GDP ratio is far in excess of production and long passing the point where massive debt creation in the past was doable in affecting rates to the downside.
Low interest rates will soon pass. Gradually they will begin to rise…been saying it here for close to a year, interest rates will start coming up later in 2021 and early 2022.
Long term (5 years) continued massive debt creation will leave one alternative aside from default and all the carnage that can bring…namely, historical normalized interest rates….(and within an irresolvable depression).

#140 Stop on 01.23.21 at 1:27 am

So,

Just wondering…

Are we going to read about GameStop at all, on this blog?
Funny things are happening to it.

#141 alf on 01.23.21 at 2:01 am

If Covid was just the flu, 18,000 Canadians and 400,000 Americans would not be dead in 10 months nor entire societies be locked down. Seems obvious. – Garth

——

What seems obvious at this point is that this was never about Covid.
I’ll happily apologize later if I was wrong, but I simply can’t ignore my spidey senses. Is that scientific enough for you?

#142 Sail Away on 01.23.21 at 2:09 am

#112 Canuck on 01.22.21 at 9:35 pm

For those of you condescending snobs who like to pat yourselves on the back for having money and think you’re so savvy even though you need to ask Garth for free investing advise, make sure you stick out your chest with pride for locking in a rate that won’t be moving for some time.

—————-

Those of us breathing the rarified air don’t concern ourselves with such vulgar matters as ‘locking in rates’. One main reason we frequent this blog is to perform tithing through the gift of knowledge.

Casting pearls before swine? Maybe. If even one carries the light forward, it will have been worth the effort.

#143 We deserve what we voted for on 01.23.21 at 2:52 am

DELETED

#144 Shirl Clarts on 01.23.21 at 4:04 am

#84 Proverbs 17:28 on 01.22.21 at 7:32 pm
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
PREFERREDS not PROVERBS. idiots need not reply.

And 17.28 is an absurd estimate!

#145 Under the radar on 01.23.21 at 6:17 am

Play the game well , it’s what you keep not what you earn. To many “big hat no cattle ” types who earn big and have nothing.

#146 Do we have all the facts on 01.23.21 at 8:12 am

Unforeseen events can have serious consequences. In 1979 a revolution in Iran caused an energy crisis that resulted in an inflation spiral that caused a serious recession that resulted in 20% interest rates.

Stating that interest rates will remain low forever is naive and refuses to accept that we are all destined to become victims an inexorable fate.

Since we cannot predict the future or control how future events will impact our lives it might be prudent to avoid getting wrapped up in the current frenzy and plan a more cautious course.

Garth stresses diversity and balance as a means to protect against events that are beyond our control. Placing the majority of a retirement plan on a single asset financed by debt that is vulnerable to unforeseen events should not be encouraged by any responsible government.

Déjà vu anyone!

#147 Wrk.dover on 01.23.21 at 9:22 am

#128 Dogman01 on 01.22.21 at 11:48 pm
“TORONTO — Young people and wealthy, white Canadians were more likely to travel overnight over the holidays despite provincial lockdown measures, according to new analysis of mobile phone data.”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/pm-urges-canadians-to-cancel-travel-plans-after-data-reveals-1m-travelled-over-holidays-1.5278476

Anyone noticing the growing racism permitted in our MSM?

———————————————-

White and arrogant were interchangeable for such a long time in world policy, that it has blurred into perhaps now being acceptable as non-racist to assume one and the same?

#148 Dharma Bum on 01.23.21 at 10:21 am

Is it just me, or does anybody else already miss Trump?

I mean, all of a sudden the presidency seems so dull.

Where is all the humour, arrogance, insanity, racism, narcissism, ignorance, pomp, distortion of facts, divisiveness, tribalism, baiting, collusion, corruption, and abuse of people in general that is becoming of a president?

Oh, Donald, we didn’t realize how much fun it was to have you as the guy in the White House.

#149 Don Guillermo on 01.23.21 at 10:51 am

Anyone notice PM Socks doesn’t give tearful apologizes anymore. He was really good at it during first term. When he wins 3rd term he’ll laugh straight to our faces each time he pops his furry head out.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-refuses-to-apologize-or-acknowledge-any-responsibility-in-decision-to-nominate-now-former-governor-general-payette

#150 Habitt on 01.23.21 at 12:40 pm

Yes sometime the housing market is likely to correct. That’s my prediction. In the interim it’s the only real plan governments in NA have. See immigration levels. It’s all tied together. And you know the big money is going to where it’s more efficient. That’s to say cheaper. It’s the way it is. Move on. No one can predict. See past performance. Nought said

#151 Blacksheep on 01.23.21 at 1:34 pm

Wrk # 147,

128 Dogman01 on 01.22.21 at 11:48 pm

“TORONTO — Young people and wealthy, white Canadians were more likely to travel overnight over the holidays despite provincial lockdown measures, according to new analysis of mobile phone data.”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/pm-urges-canadians-to-cancel-travel-plans-after-data-reveals-1m-travelled-over-holidays-1.5278476

Anyone noticing the growing racism permitted in our MSM?
———————————————-
White and arrogant were interchangeable for such a long time in world policy, that it has blurred into perhaps now being acceptable as non-racist to assume one and the same?
——————————–
Yes…they reference villainous “White” people three times, in this short article.

Can you Imagine CTV publicly labeling people in this negative context for travelling during a lockdown as:

Black, brown, red or yellow?

Why not just say wealthy “Canadians” traveled. How does one’s skin tone add anything to the conversation, other than send negative messaging about a certain highly visible segment of our society?

Divide and distract is the plan.

#152 calgary rip off on 01.23.21 at 1:52 pm

I dont see what you describe here in Calgary. Houses are still double their real value. This was all triggered in 2005 by the oil boom. Why people that bought before 2005 are worried? Greed. The mindset in Alberta is no long term policy or strategy for government funding. The result likely is a long price decline. The question then arises about interest rates and mortgage renewals. Will I requalify? Likely yes, however eventually lack of money will transfer to my job at the hospital. Frankly im not worried. The hospital is run by business incompetents. Every day i show up at 730. If im lucky the procedures start around 830. Thats one hour wasted for many staff every single day. Then around 3 pm there is a rush because the doctors were late. Instead these physicians should either show up on time or be put on salary. The mindset in Alberta of banking on oil is reality. Other than cold air and water the land is severely overpriced. So if it all hits i will just leave. I view myself as a mercenary. I have no loyalties to any business or party, just ethical principles. As such my anxiety is zero as I will adapt day by day with new ideas for decisions. The forecasted prices for sfh have not gone up or down much in Alberta likely as a main driver the oil pipeline that Kenney and Trump failed on is now defunct. Questions arise to why besides electoral promises Biden cancelled it? Maybe extracting bitumen isnt competitive, similar to how local businesses are being bled by ubereats and skip the dishes? Corruption everywhere.

#153 Sail Away on 01.23.21 at 4:18 pm

#152 calgary rip off on 01.23.21 at 1:52 pm

…oil pipeline that Kenney and Trump failed on is now defunct. Questions arise to why besides electoral promises Biden cancelled it? Maybe extracting bitumen isnt competitive, similar to how local businesses are being bled by ubereats and skip the dishes? Corruption everywhere.

————

Faron got it mostly correct the other day:

Biden gained big points with environmentalists, the Sioux Nation, US oil producers… and maybe unintentionally, railroads by canceling something that would only really benefit Canada.

Savvy political move.

#154 Covid Warrior on 01.23.21 at 8:30 pm

#45 Dolce Vita Just to clarify

NOVAK DJOKOVIC’S OPEN LETTER TO AUSTRALIA IN FULL
Australia,

In light of recent media and social media criticism for my letter to Craig Tiley (Tournament director of the Australian Open), I would like to clarify a few things.

My good intentions for my fellow competitors in Melbourne have been misconstrued as being selfish, difficult, and ungrateful. This couldn’t be farther from the truth.

Not every act is taken at its face value and at times when I see the aftermath of things, I do tend to ask myself if I should just sit back and enjoy my benefits instead of paying attention to other people’s struggles. However, I always choose to do something and be of service despite the challenging consequences and misunderstandings.

I genuinely care about my fellow players and I also understand very well how the world is run and who gets bigger and better and why. I’ve earned my privileges the hard way, and for that reason, it is very difficult for me to be a mere onlooker knowing how much every help, gesture, and good word mattered when I was small and insignificant in the world pecking order. Hence I use my position of privilege to be of service as much as I can where and when needed.

I have always had a very good relationship with Craig, and I respect and appreciate all the effort he puts into making the Australian Open a place to look forward to coming back to each year.

In our email exchange I used an opportunity to brainstorm about potential improvements that could be made to the quarantine of players in Melbourne that were in full lockdown.

There were a few suggestions and ideas that I gathered from other players from our chat group and there was no harm intended to try and help. I was aware that the chances were low that any of our suggestions would be accepted, just like my request to quarantine with my team in Melbourne instead of Adelaide, was denied prior to our travel because of strict government regulations.

Since I couldn’t be with other players in Melbourne, I made myself available to them if needed.

I understand that organising international sporting events during a pandemic poses health risks to the local community and to the players themselves. Therefore, I would like to express my full gratitude to Tennis Australia, the Australian government and local citizens for being willing to take this risk with us for the love of the game and the multiple opportunities it brings to the economy of the country and its people.

We are honoured, and we will all do our best to follow the guidelines and protocols put in place. We do hope that we will be able to nurture our bodies and be ready for the mental and physical endurance and strength tests that are ahead of us once the competition starts.

Things in the media escalated and there was a general impression that the players (including myself) are ungrateful, weak, and selfish because of their unpleasant feelings in quarantine.

I am very sorry that is has come to that because I do know how grateful many are. We all came to Australia to compete. Not being able to train and prepare before the tournament starts is really not easy. None of us ever questioned 14 days of quarantine despite what is being said by media outlets.

I am very much looking forward to playing in front of the people and joining the tennis frenzy and energy of the city that has always carried me towards many victories. I am also looking forward to seeing all my fellow players together in Melbourne. I am blown away by the numerous messages of gratitude and love that I have received during these past few days.

Wishing you all health and love,

Novak