The infected

John says he started worrying after his buddy picked up one of those irritating snowmobile-on-water things that had been purchased back in November. At that time the dealership said it had already chewed through a third of its 2021 inventory.

“I’m in the market for a new boat myself,” he tells me, “so after hearing that I went straight to the King Fisher dealership (also Canadian made) and was told that the inventory they had on site was all they were getting for 2021 due to insane demand. That was Jan 10th and they had 10 boats for sale at the time. I called the sales person back on Jan 15th and they were down to four. I was told that if I didn’t buy this week I probably wouldn’t be getting a boat in 2021.

“That was on January 15th, 2021. Keep in mind, these boats cost between $70,000 – $400,000… Either the world has become obsessed with water sports (the outdoor kind) or isolation has driven people nuts. I bought a boat, so it’s possible that I belong in one of those  two camps myself…”

Well, our dude is not alone. RV sales have gone through the roof in the last ten months, keeping pace with the boat guys. And check out what’s been happening with bikers. The Canadian Motorcycle and Moped Industry’s latest report (November) says sales soared 55% year/year, with off-road recreation bikes up a dizzying 194%. And how about quads? Ditto. Sales before Christmas were coursing higher by 48%, and in 2020 an additional 12,000 units had been spoken for.

Meanwhile we know all about real estate. Home sales in December jumped more than 7% from November – which is unprecedented. The number of deals last month was a record across Canada. Compared to the end of 2019, the bump was 47%, pushing prices ahead 13%. For the Year of Satan as a whole, Canadians bought an amazing 550,000 properties.

The places with the biggest price gains? Wow. Small Ontario cities and cottage country. You know – backwater, hayseed, cultural wastelands like Brantford, Barrie, Peterborough, Woodstock, Welland, the Kawarthas and Muskoka – where crazy people buy quads, cruisers and jetskis.

It’s a pandemic spending revolution. No wonder. Airline bookings are down 90% and those people who do flit off to Mexico or Florida are being shamed in an era when ‘non-essential’ travel is a big sin. In parts of the country you can’t even cross a provincial border without being forced into a soul-sucking two-week quarantine. In Ontario it’s impossible to get out of the house for a nice meal or (my fav) to go clubbing and boogie all night to Tiësto or Pascal Letoublon.

So what are we doing instead?

Consuming. Spending. Indulging. Nibbling through that $104 billion pile of chequing-account cash that came from Mr. Socks plus not having to spend money on commuting, childcare, dogwalkers, gas or fresh undies and pants. We’re also borrowing as never before, with household debt levels jumping to a new historic high. No wonder. Five-year mortgages are 1.5% and the longer this damn virus hangs around, the cheaper those loans get.

In a word, change. Societal change. WFH has altered everything for many people. Urban depopulation is a thing. Small town house values have been jacked by Covid refugees. The price of a 2×4 or a sheet of drywall has scaled new heights as home renovations explode. Personal indulgences, as epitomized by $200,000 boats and $15,000 bicycles have turned mainstream. And the slimy little pathogen has done a big number on home affordability, forever locking a generation out of real estate.

Investing? Pfft. This is all about consumption.

And look at this – the latest debt survey from MNP shows just how much Covid has screwed with our heads. Four in ten say they’re not confident they can survive until the vaccine rescues society and their finances without going further into debt. But at the same time, 60% think cheap interest rates make this a great time to borrow more! Especially stuff they couldn’t previously afford! Like an $18,000 quad! Almost half (47%) state these low rates make them feel ‘comfortable’ about carrying an increased borrowing.

But what happens when the cost of money inevitably rises from these all-time lows? Well, according to an RBC survey, it ain’t evah gonna happen. Two-thirds of Canadians have convinced themselves that emergency, once-in-a-lifetime, global-pandemic-induced interest rates are here to stay. The new normal.  They say they’re completely ‘unconcerned’ about an increase.

Of course. That makes just as much sense as saying offices will stay shut and you won’t see the boss again. Other than on Zoom. Waist up.

Did you ever think a spike protein could do all this?

So many surprises in store.

153 comments ↓

#1 n1tro on 01.18.21 at 2:35 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-canadian-prime-minister-lists-140947075.html

Stephen Harper: “Unless the U.S. becomes a catastrophe, it’s hard to see what the alternative is to the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Other than you know gold, bitcoin, … a whole basket of things, right?”

:O

What a relief he’s not running anything. – Garth

#2 BlogDog123 on 01.18.21 at 2:36 pm

Killing Keystone XL:

It’s been a political football for years. Keeping the decisions ‘open’ has helped raise a lot of money for the dems.

Meanwhile in China, they’re not playing politics. They’re just getting things done like 5-20 year long term planning. High-speed trains. Biotech. AI.

Flood entire villages for power dams. Environmental improvement schemes their own way or the highway…

Chance of USA getting a high speed rail network: Zero. Too much politics local, county, state, federal to get things moving.

#3 "NUTS!" on 01.18.21 at 2:41 pm

Garth,
While I am in agreement with your forecasted inevitable increase in rates, one can easily see why the general populous believes otherwise. We have been living in an artificially controlled low-interest life for well over a decade. Unfortunately that is longer than most Canadian’s memories. I’d like to believe the Bond market will ultimately dictate the interest rates, but I have this nagging voice telling me that I will be surprised . . .again.

#4 Faron on 01.18.21 at 2:46 pm

Who you callin’ a spike protein?

But seriously, I recall the credit explosion that attended the ’06, ’07 housing bubble. I was a PhD student earning 1200 a month and had credit card offers coming in every day for a $20,000 limit @7.9% APR — on a credit card! Banks would send “cheques” that you could cash against your card. Madness. At one point I had a $30,000 limit on pre-tax income of $14,400 annual. Seemingly every truck on the road was towing a brand now wake-surf boat. Oh, and the truck was brand new too. All on uber cheap credit.

The current trajectory seems to be lining up with that era albeit for different reasons. Back then, the issue was relatively thin credit spreads — i.e. the overnight rate was 5% and the consumer credit rate was 8%. Now, the low rates are due to low central bank rates and spreads are a bit closer to normal (stretching here). Then, most didn’t know about the MBS garbage happening behind the scenes. Makes me wonder if anything similar is happening now that represents a similar level of systemic risk. Or, this time, is all the risk distributed among individuals (yet still concentrated with banks/consumer credit) and will come home to roost as rates steadily creep up and squeeze people? Made even worse if inflation happens as well, yet wages stay flat which has been the trajectory for 40+ years now. Either way, eventual badness.

#5 Adam Smith on 01.18.21 at 2:46 pm

@ #2 BlogDog123 on 01.18.21 at 2:36 pm

A country run by lawyers versus a country run by engineers. Not a fair fight really.

The only advantage the West has is that once your country gets rich, your population starts quickly aging and young, smart, creative people who like to be free want to migrate here instead of China. Let’s hope we’re smart enough to recognize that this is our saving advantage instead of turning into populist xenophobes.

#6 Faron on 01.18.21 at 2:52 pm

#2 BlogDog123 on 01.18.21 at 2:36 pm

Killing Keystone XL:

…helped raise a lot of money for the dems…

No. Keystone is mostly a regional issue in the US. Avg American doesn’t have a clue what it is and doesn’t much care. Energy is 1/3 as important to the US GDP as it is to Canada’s and keystone is a teeensy drop in that bucket. Don’t extrapolate Canadian issues into the US. Doing so is like pretending Americans cared at all about the Tragically Hip (not saying the Hip was good or bad, just didn’t make an impact south of 49).

#7 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 2:55 pm

The Roman Empire was brought down by Barbarians at the gate.
Will the American Empire be brought down by Barbarians within the gate?
Stay tuned.

#8 Faron on 01.18.21 at 3:04 pm

Finally on Keystone: At least in the past year with the COVID mess and as that continues into the future, it would have been very bad practice for any president to promote foreign oil over domestic production that had just taken a huge hit. Note also that there is overlap in the spatial venn diagram of oil production, keystone routing, and swing states. Killing Keystone gives political support from domestic oil AND environmentalists. There aren’t too many ways a US politician can leverage both sides of the aisle like that.

#9 cuke and tomato picker on 01.18.21 at 3:07 pm

Killing the Keystone Pipeline should not really bother
our Alberta people because every time we go for a sunny drive on south Vancouver Island or visit the Butschart
Gardens we see plenty of cars from Alberta.

#10 RMTL on 01.18.21 at 3:07 pm

The after-market in a year or two will be full of amazing deals…can’t wait !

#11 Linda on 01.18.21 at 3:09 pm

Well, given the news story about the one CERB recipient who spent the $ on dirt bikes for the tykes, not surprising that so many are looking to indulge as well. Especially if they’ve just bought in cottage country, where boating, quads, RV’s & the like are practically mandatory if one wants to fit in.

However, I do wonder if at least some of the demand is being fueled by recent retirees or those tire kicking the retiree concept? If one has just retired & the usual travel abroad option is so fraught with difficulty, seems likely that $ meant to go abroad would be spent on toys at home instead. As for RV sales, well if one can’t travel abroad & local hotels are considered hotbeds of possible infection the RV option looks quite attractive.

#12 Comments! on 01.18.21 at 3:09 pm

Gulp, I hope the Norwegian government is right

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9159959/amp/Norway-denies-direct-link-deaths-33-elderly-people-Covid-vaccine-received.html

On another note, how high can rates possibly climb? They hit a paltry 2% a few years ago and the markets had a stroke. Going from nothing to almost nothing will continue as the US and the Fed continue to print debt like confetti. We are in too deep and the 2018 stock market dumping that was only stopped with lower rates and even more QE, is undeniable evidence. Without socialist/corporate stimulus and zero rates, the markets would be less than half of what they are now in my humble opinion.

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 3:09 pm

Clinton’s cat was called Socks.

#14 jess on 01.18.21 at 3:19 pm

the lie virus
this says it all from the lie enforcers month after month infected people the lie people
pence continues in georgia continues the lie through the maga media

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/01/17/tapper-ender-trump-big-lie-election-results-capitol-riot-sotu-vpx.cnn

#15 Inequity on 01.18.21 at 3:21 pm

Die Keystone die… sure it will help Alberta a bit. But it perpetuates the problem that the US won’t pay market value for Canadian oil. It also ships refining jobs to south of the border… and there have already been too many Canadian jobs lost to the US.

#16 WTF on 01.18.21 at 3:24 pm

Ya went hunting for a new golf bag, no friggin deals. Bucked up, got it today. Now Ready for my 3rd round this Jan in the Vandelusional Banana Belt.

#17 Leftover on 01.18.21 at 3:30 pm

Things can change pretty quickly. In the UK, vaccination is happening so fast that they’ll have administered over 30 million doses by the end of March. Some regions are even being asked to slow down so they can catch up in London and keep the peace:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-mass-volunteer-effort-puts-uk-ahead-of-schedule-on-vaccine-rollout/

What to make of this? Vaccination combined with massive QE across the G8 will result in inflation sooner rather than later (already evident in house and jet-ski prices), and somebody will blink.

China? Germany? Either one could decide that enough is enough and they will demand a steeper yield curve. Up go rates.

Canadian banks have played the long game by off-loading shaky mortgages to CMHC or the BoC, just waiting for rates to creep up in time for those 4 and 5 year terms to be up in about 2025. They’ll cream those borrowers who have > 20% equity, leaving the dregs for alternate lenders and credit unions.

It’s already happening.

#18 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.21 at 3:31 pm

Demand for higher yields is going to start to bite in Q1/Q2 2021. Then watch mortgage rates.

#19 Q&A on 01.18.21 at 3:33 pm

Garth, could you run a scenario that inflation runs for lets say 5 yrs at 5% rate. What would be imact on wages if people start pricing in inlation at this level. Do we still have any negotiation power? If we get higher wages would debt simply erode over time and the bigger the debt the better?

#20 Doug in London on 01.18.21 at 3:33 pm

John says he started worrying after his buddy picked up one of those irritating snowmobile-on-water things that had been purchased back in November.
————————————————————
My guess is that for a lot of buyers the novelty will wear off and in the next 2 or 3 years there will be a glut of used ones on the market. What to do instead? Rent one like I did, from Extreme Watersports or Splash Watersports (their competitor) in Grand Bend. It’s a lot cheaper that way, and I still have the money left over to invest in whatever investments go on sale, or for doing other fun things.

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 3:34 pm

#6 Faron on 01.18.21 at 2:52 pm
#2 BlogDog123 on 01.18.21 at 2:36 pm

Killing Keystone XL:

…helped raise a lot of money for the dems…

No. Keystone is mostly a regional issue in the US. Avg American doesn’t have a clue what it is and doesn’t much care. Energy is 1/3 as important to the US GDP as it is to Canada’s and keystone is a teeensy drop in that bucket. Don’t extrapolate Canadian issues into the US. Doing so is like pretending Americans cared at all about the Tragically Hip (not saying the Hip was good or bad, just didn’t make an impact south of 49).
———————-
The Hip was, well crazy hip.
Never got that the Yanks did not quite get them.
Maybe “New Orleans is sinking” scared them.
They can’t handle the truth.

#22 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.21 at 3:42 pm

The USA is not our friend. They have Canada were they want us. We are very dependent on them from trade to military protection. Canada needs the oil export receipts that would have been created thru Keystone but alas a bunch of enviro useful idiots have had their day. Canada has had a reducing R&D budget for multiple decades now and alas we have no more arrows in our quiver. Canadians are about to be woken up with a rude economic reality. We are extremely broke and in debt with few options to see our way clear.

#23 Millennial 1%er on 01.18.21 at 3:44 pm

Not only quads and boats, but 2k graphics cards are extremely difficult to find. I should know, I got one with a 1.5% interest loan!
(just kidding, but I still got one)

#24 Oakville Rocks! on 01.18.21 at 4:03 pm

Tiesto? – pff! Tiesto is so 2020.

#25 cramar on 01.18.21 at 4:04 pm

Not just lumber is in rocket-mode inflation, but other items you would have never guessed a year ago. Now that gyms are closed, people have to exercise at home. Therefore, some exercise equipment is in short supply and prices have gone through the roof. Like in pumping iron!

Saw a week or so ago a news interview with a vendor in Windsor who sells exercise equipment. He said a year ago weight plates were going for about $1/lb. Now it’s $2.50/lb. WHAT!?

And how much is the official inflation rate?

#26 Faron on 01.18.21 at 4:04 pm

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 3:34 pm

#6 Faron on 01.18.21 at 2:52 pm
#2 BlogDog123 on 01.18.21 at 2:36 pm

———————-

The Hip was, well crazy hip.
Never got that the Yanks did not quite get them.
Maybe “New Orleans is sinking” scared them.
They can’t handle the truth.

I read in one of Richard Thaler’s books that there are studies that show, to a point, people’s taste in music is determined by what one is exposed to, and that often has nothing to do with how “good” or “bad” a band is.

I, don’t claim “the hip” were good or bad, there music was rarely played in the states so very few liked them. However, when Gord died, the New York Times published an excellent piece about The Hip and Gord’s work and conveyed how important his music was to Canadians and how good of artists they were.

Anecdote: On the day of the Hip’s last concert I was running a 50 mile trail race in Squamish. The finish of the race came down through the Smoke Bluffs above town and, having run 45 miles, my brain was fried and I was grumpy. Below, in the town centre, I could hear music and it sounded crappy and annoyed my addled brain for the last hour of the race. I kept thinking “Why is the race director playing this garbage. Ugh!” Anyhow, it was the live CBC broadcast of their last concert and it was being screened in downtown Squamish. I felt like an ass for complaining even if only to myself.

Anyhow, I hope we can all agree that Nickleback sucks.

#27 Damifino on 01.18.21 at 4:13 pm

Two-thirds of Canadians have convinced themselves that emergency, once-in-a-lifetime, global-pandemic-induced interest rates are here to stay. The new normal. They say they’re completely ‘unconcerned’ about an increase.
———————————-

I suppose you can’t really blame them. After all, the once-in-a-lifetime emergency rates that came after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis are still pretty much with us.

It’s not so much the new normal as it is the new same. Except that, this time, bucket loads of free cash also got sent to anybody with a pulse. And that debt will be assumed by taxpayers not yet born.

Why would anyone be concerned?

#28 Albertastrophe on 01.18.21 at 4:14 pm

Today’s column aptly shows how pervasive is the financial irrationality of individuals.

And then there’s governments. Sigh. Just as bad, even worse, when you are dealing with Conservative hacks who want to pretend to be fiscally responsible while actually just putting more money in the pockets of their supporters and wealthy allies.

So today on Blue Monday, the most depressing day of the year, Albertans get a Blue kick in the groin realizing that Keystone will be dead soon, and everything about their incompetently managed, hyper-focussed-oil-based economy is about to unravel, big time.

Keystone is the beginning of the end for Alberta. The province will change, but will face economic collapse and not recover unless there are never again any “Blue” Mondays. (i.e. “Tory Blue”)

But it would not be that way if Albertans had not been suckers for stupid, financially illiterate Conservative political hacks for the last 50 years and more.

We should have been in such a better position today to deal with all this. If we had actually saved and invested with the Heritage Fund, we’d be ready.

The Fund was created with mission to help “save for the future” and “diversify the economy” of Alberta. But the governments of the 1980s stopped contributing after just 11 years. (WTF!? As Garth would say, why open up a TFSA and never top it up for years after?)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_Heritage_Savings_Trust_Fund

Since then, Conservative/UCP low IQ idiots have bungled the investments as well. It had a higher value in 2014 than 2020, for example.

In Norway, with a similar scale oil industry, they are now TAKING OUT about $37 Billion annually in returns from their similar fund, now valued at $1 Trillion.

In Alberta, the ENTIRE FUND was barely worth $16 Billion this past year. Pathetic, and so very Alberta Blue.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-s-heritage-savings-trust-fund-1.5648392

All of this because idiot Conservatives repeatedly squandered returns from the fund to cover up services that needed to be paid for due to years of attempts to suck up to right wingers by keeping taxes “low”.

But, of course, that was just an illusion. Conservative BS, like we have all seen since the Reagan era. And now its coming home to roost.

Put aside for a moment the comparisons to Norway; yes there are differences as naysayers like to argue, but actually a lot more similarities that we should have learned from.

The key one has been the greed and lack of vision of Conservative idiots in politics who have caused all this.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-oilsands-heritage-savings-trust-fund-norway-1.5682546

“Created by Premier Peter Lougheed in 1976, Alberta’s nest egg was seeded with provincial oil revenues in the 1970s and early 1980s. Since then, Alberta governments have used the fund and its investment income to pay for nearly $45-billion worth of programs, services and infrastructure.”

…that should have been paid for with tax dollars.

Duhhhhhhhhhhhh. Jason Kenney, with your IQ of 86, can you even read and understand this?

And now we have to pay the piper. Keystone is gonna crash, just as the whole economy has to be reshaped in the face of COVID and preparing for climate change emergency.

What if Alberta had just hired a firm like Garth Turner’s 40 years ago to manage this?

Hmm. The Heritage Fund managed by Turner Investments…sounds good, eh!

We’d have a fund with up to $575 Billion in it right now, from constant, B&D investments. We’d be ready to face whatever, together. Billions in cash flow available for tough times and diversifying our economy.

https://thenarwhal.ca/norway-s-oil-savings-just-hit-1-trillion-alberta-has-17-billion-what-s-gives/

Instead, we are all increasingly divided and about to go down the toilet.

Blue Mondays will be the norm for Alberta for the rest of our lifetimes unless we kick the stupid western affiliation with Conservative stupidity to the curb forever.

What a financial disaster the UCP and Conservatives have created for all Albertans, for all time.

So sad. So unnecessary.

#29 tkid on 01.18.21 at 4:17 pm

Things in the US are going to get more and more extreme. Trump will be replaced by someone else, especially when higher interest rates lead to yet more financial devastation for the average American.

Most cannot afford 4% interest rates, but I remember 22% interest rates. Even half that is going to be catastrophic for many Canadian and Americans.

There is an utter disaster coming our way in a decade unless we deal with debt, ours and the government’s. But there isn’t the will for that, so instead we will see the worst case scenario come to life.

Soberly, when double digit inflation hits it will be time to find a nice quiet place and hide for a decade or two.

#30 Guelph Guru on 01.18.21 at 4:18 pm

It’s good to spend on toys and fun stuff. But what I read in today’s post does not sound anything like healthy spending. Is anyone even planning to pay their debts?
This will eventually lead to a serious depreciation of the CAD.
It would be nice to discuss what assets would hold value when reality sets in.

#31 S.Bby on 01.18.21 at 4:26 pm

Bicycles were hard to come by in 2020 as well.

#32 Franco on 01.18.21 at 4:29 pm

Permanence is an illusion, and the only eternal truth is change.

#33 johnny on 01.18.21 at 4:32 pm

I just dont see how interest rates can go up much. There is way too much debt in the world. Its literally impossible for rates to go up to 2 percent from zero as it would detonate this debt orgy the world has been on. Hence the western world will keep interest rates low a lot longer than people think. Look at Japan..30 years now of near zero rates..we are going to end up the same. Zero percent mortgages rates in Denmark now…why cant that happen here? Everyone calling for higher interest rates over the past 10 years has been wrong other than a few brief pops..it always triggered an equity market fit then a new round of QE nonsense. This is what happens when you put central bankers in charge.

#34 Joe on 01.18.21 at 4:33 pm

I wish you’d stop promising that rates will rise. They’ve been in the ditch for over a decade now. Every time it looks like they might slowly return to “normal”, some new BS comes along and down they go. First it was the oil “shock,” now the damn virus.

I keep waiting for the debt-snorfling half-wits to get the spanking they so richly deserve, but it never happens. Instead, they just keep living large while “prudent” people like me endure year after year of purgatory.

#35 Billy Buoy on 01.18.21 at 4:34 pm

Not that it will ever happen.

It can’t happen. Period. And we all know it .

It’s the Big Lie that the Fed tells us may happen yet they are the ones printing to ensure yield curve control for rates not to rise to a breaking point point of no return.

My question Mr. Turner: what is your obsession thinking they ever will? And please tell us if they ever do climb to even 3%, how the government’s of the world would ever deal with such a crisis on their hands with an elderly schewed demographic, massive bankruptcy, and chaos.

Popcorn in the bowl, eager for the answer like anyone else with a brain is waiting for worldwide.

Sincerely, Billy Buoy.

#36 Samsara on 01.18.21 at 4:34 pm

Oakville Rocks! on 01.18.21 at 4:03 pm
Tiesto? – pff! Tiesto is so 2020.

More like so 1999. Still got my signed copy of his Delerium Silence remix #dadmusic

#37 Howard on 01.18.21 at 4:35 pm

go clubbing and boogie all night to Tiësto or Pascal Letoublon

————————–

Even in my university days I couldn’t tell the difference between any of these house/techno djs that some of my friends weirdly worshipped like deities. All sounded the same to me.

#38 TurnerNation on 01.18.21 at 4:37 pm

#148 fishman on 01.18.21 at 2:37 am
Pezim and the likes, all those men are covered by this great book:
https://vancouvertrueborns.com/post/188870510316/the-1987-book-fleecing-the-lamb-the-inside-story
There were a lot of lambs over the course of the VSE’s 92-year history. In 1989, Forbes magazine labelled the exchange the “scam capital of the world.”

— Brutal New System, has already ranked you. Did the government seize your business, order it shut and you onto CERB or into more debt (CEBA?). https://weareallessential.ca/ – I thought we beat this system in the last World War. Guess not.

–As noted 8 months ago in May…all this came to play. Ontariowe admitted it tracks cell phone data, then used it to shut the province down. 8 months later…we get curfews in ON, QC:

#16 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 2:18 pm
As stated there will be as after 9-11 more ‘alerts’ and threat levels for year. This will go on for years.
Your rights to run a business hang on the numbers on your TV screen.
Wait until the Cell phone tracking apps are in use, you will see real time shut downs the norm.
In some countries right now you must apply for govt permission and a QR code in order to leave the house. Global house arrest..and some people still don’t see it.

— From April 2020 – look at this fear-mongering , conspiracy-claptrap. 10 months later…ON, Manitoba, QC are Shut Down. Every (former First World country is)
Hey somebody pointed out…the provinces which voted CONSERVATIVE are getting punished the hardest. Funny how this works out.

#274 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 11:07 am
I am a bearer of bad news today :(
Our rulers are openly saying they want to lock us down another 3 months to a year. Every country is on board with this, our new global order.

….
–XL pipeline shut down? Our airlines reduced to a shell? Back in MAY this was clear. Banking and home loans soaring.

#132 TurnerNation on 05.30.20 at 8:50 am
Wait till T3 comes into power! Cuba eat your heart out. We got the system.
So far they’ve destroyed the oil, fishing, logging, tourism and real estate industries. We got anything left? Only a banking/insurance tax slave camp we are.
Sigh the Crown’s bankers own it all. Check the back of your coins…

#70 TurnerNation on 05.22.20 at 3:23 pm
Two points you can bet on:
1. CERB will be extended, “temporarily” – well forever. The goal is communism. See point #2.
2. As always those numbers on the Tee-vee screen will be ruling our lives, forcing compliance. And we are in the compliance stage.
ALL small businesses must be wiped out. Communism does not allow for that. The shut downs will continue until, so.

#39 Network Admin on 01.18.21 at 4:44 pm

Add video cards to the list
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/terrible-time-to-buy-gpu-late-2020

#40 Sail Away on 01.18.21 at 4:44 pm

#28 Albertastrophe on 01.18.21 at 4:14 pm

The [oil revenue] Heritage Fund was created with mission to help “save for the future” and “diversify the economy” of Alberta. But the governments of the 1980s stopped contributing after just 11 years.

In Norway, with a similar scale oil industry, they are now TAKING OUT about $37 Billion annually in returns from their similar fund, now valued at $1 Trillion.

————

In Alaska, the oil revenue permanent fund pays each resident a yearly dividend, usually between $1,000-2,000.

It was the best- the kids’ dividend went to their education fund and mine was always spent on the best outdoor gear available. My wife? Not sure. She probably just saved it.

With zero state income, property or sales tax and endless wild food, many residents earn little but live very fulfilling lives unencumbered by that whole ‘work’ concept.

#41 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm

Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

#42 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.18.21 at 4:50 pm

My new Bayliner arrives this May. Paid CASH no trade. Sorry to disappoint.

#43 Doug t on 01.18.21 at 4:53 pm

To bad you can’t buy common sense

#44 Billy Buoy on 01.18.21 at 4:54 pm

Sorry Hip fans….

Hip were a solid Canadian band period. Appealed to a certain demographic and loved by many but…

Note for note Blue Rodeo are the quetisential band for Canada. Alt country rock fits the vibe and feeling of Canada as compared to the Hip’s more gritty sound.

Sorry not a trendy follow the crowd opinion but the truth.

#45 Don Guillermo on 01.18.21 at 4:57 pm

#41 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm
Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

*******************************************

Nonplused, Somewhere in the archives you explain this issue well. I always use an analogy that it’s kind of like telling Prairie farmers to sell loaves of bread instead of wheat. Maybe a bit simplified.

#46 Frenchy in YQM on 01.18.21 at 5:09 pm

Today’s story in Moncton comes from my sister in law. Her landlords told her today that they are going to list the house. They bought the triplex in 2011 for 190k. Recent sales in the neighbourhood are around 250-300k for similarly appraised duplexes.

What sucks is she rents attic bachelor apartment with shared (but not overlooked) backyard for under 700$ all-in (a steal in this neighbourhood, or anywhere in the city for that matters), so if the new LL evicts her for renos or jacks up the rent, she’s out of luck and will have to move.
Based on the current state of major rent increases, it’s not looking good.

Buying isn’t an immediate option, as she’s a freelancer who’s just starting to get her head out of the water (gov’t stimulus cheques helped her finally get rid of most debt, except student loans). Sadly, if she need to pay over 1000$ for housing, it’s going to be tough to save for a house (I will try to convince her to start and continue to invest with a roboadvisor too).

#47 IHCTD9 on 01.18.21 at 5:12 pm

Returning YAMAHA customers can finance their new Grizzly 700 or RMax 1000 purchases at 1.49%. Add in the boatloads of Teenagers who still live at home who have boatloads of surplus Trudeaubuxs in the form of CERB, and WFH’ers who have saved a bundle, and I’m not confused how toy buying has gone parabolic.

I’d even bet a lot of the boat/off road/bike buyers are the same folks who have exited places like the gta. Gotta stock up the new rural toybox!

I bought my Griz mint at 2 years old in 2016, and right now, I could probably sell the thing for the same as what I paid for it 4 years ago, despite quadrupling the mileage on it. But that’s not going to happen, unless I decide there is a new RMax 1000 in my future…

#48 Pete on 01.18.21 at 5:16 pm

So for now we keep living in T2s pyramid scheme where Canadians selling RE to one another, at higher and higher prices, makes sense. Except the greatest fools loose their shirts and can’t make payments or sell (because tens of thousands of other greatest fools are having the same dilemma). What happens when this pyramid comes crashing down I wonder? Should be fun to watch.

#49 S.O on 01.18.21 at 5:19 pm

How can they raise rates, their talking about some sort of yield curve control to keep the rates down for a very long time …

“They” is the bond market, which couldn’t care less what you want. – Garth

#50 wallflower on 01.18.21 at 5:20 pm

Yup. Funky funny world. Walked into a bike store in May to learn “No bikes to buy til maybe 2021”

#31 S.Bby on 01.18.21 at 4:26 pm
Bicycles were hard to come by in 2020 as well.

#51 cramar on 01.18.21 at 5:23 pm

Just heard about the programmer Stefan Thomas in San Fransisco who has 7002 bitcoins on an encrypted disc, and lost the password. Just checked and they are currently worth over $250 million U.S. He has 10 tries before the wallet is permanently encrypted. He has used 8 tries. Talk about nightmare stress!

#52 Billy Buoy on 01.18.21 at 5:24 pm

Who’s bigger?

The bond market or all the Central banks combined?

#53 mountain king on 01.18.21 at 5:28 pm

this country needs a big vision, how about a high speed train connecting Windsor to Ottawa? and get it done in 5 years at whatever the cost

#54 will on 01.18.21 at 5:29 pm

A good chart to match today’s post is the price of DOO. Tsx.

#55 Sail Away on 01.18.21 at 5:31 pm

#42 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm

Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

———–

Well! Indeed, that is already being done, and there are reasons it’s not done completely for Canada’s use: the main reason being that transporting large volumes of liquid is easier via some means than others:

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-commodities/crude-oil-petroleum-products/report/2019-gasoline/index.html

#56 Doug t on 01.18.21 at 5:34 pm

#45 Billy bouy

Yeah I never got the whole Hip thing at all – only good song they produced was “Locked in the trunk of a car” – blue rodeo definitely

#57 Dolce Vita on 01.18.21 at 5:35 pm

Be not amazed.

People sick and tired of staying home, want to cut loose and have some fun.

But being Canadian, that means doing it responsibly:

Social Distancing Recreation.

I think if they could put a mask on their jet skis, they would.

————————-

#17 Leftover

The UK is using its population as Guinea Pigs.

There is no science from the vaccine makers that supports this much time in between jabs:

12 weeks

that they are doing.

They are trading 0% immunity for a population immunity of 52.4%, the latter according to Pfizer. Fine if vaccine trial science supports that but when no such science exists, they are being RECKLESS beyond words.

In essence what is going on now in the UK is this:

Phase IV, “3 months between Jabs” Trials
Study Size = 4.51M

That’s what they are doing. Plain and simple.

Same goes for AB, BC and ON exceeding Pfizer recommended times between jabs.

Canada in Summer? should start seeing the benefits of vax’ng if Gov Canada procurement estimates to date are correct.

“Normal” will soon resume in Canada. Why mess with science going “off trail” in the meantime? Makes no sense at all.

#58 IHCTD9 on 01.18.21 at 5:36 pm

#34 Joe on 01.18.21 at 4:33 pm

I keep waiting for the debt-snorfling half-wits to get the spanking they so richly deserve, but it never happens. Instead, they just keep living large while “prudent” people like me endure year after year of purgatory.
— ——

You’re investing $$ every month right? Then you are winning. I live in the Ontario backwaters where sfd’s highlighted in today’s blog are doing moonshots on price increases. Yet, my house surely will not outpace the portfolio gains in the long run.

Let the snorflers do their thing, they still have to pay it back, even if at only 1.5%. The specuvestors still need a place to live after (if) they realize big gains on their RE sale. Nothing is ever going to beat a big pile of tax sheltered cash, especially if you’ve been at it long enough that the bulk of the pile is gains (tax fee at that).

Just play the game according to the path you have laid out, win the game for which you have set the goalposts. Peeps balling via debt today, will burn eventually, don’t matter what the rates are. They don’t get to keep it unless they pay for it.

#59 thebarold on 01.18.21 at 5:40 pm

Well… if i spend my money on a boat, he can’t tax THAT. Oh wait a sec… https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/industry-news/canadian-marine-industry-fighting-proposed-luxury-tax-on-boats

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 5:41 pm

#26 Faron
It’s true that initially your music taste, like food, is determined what you were exposed to.
(that’s why I like October Fest music)
Joking, of course.
But, just like food, there’s also a required taste for music.
While still in Europe, I liked Neil Young, Leonard Cohen, the Guess Who etc.
When I came to North America, I started to listen to Country, Gospel and Jazz.
It is also true that hearing a song many times, could make you like it. Or the opposite of course.
I remember waiting for weeks for the release of the next Beatles singles. It turned out Hey Jude.
Huge disappointment.I did not like it. It liked the B-side Revolution better.
But Hey Jude became a huge hit, and was all over the stations, and eventually I started to sing along.

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 5:43 pm

#57
acquired, of course.
Instead of required.

#62 Damifino on 01.18.21 at 5:48 pm

#42 Paully

Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?
———————————-

Would you invest billions building heavy oil refineries in a country that demonizes hydrocarbon energy? Me neither.

#63 Loonie Doctor on 01.18.21 at 5:49 pm

I bought an RV before it was cool. Trend setter.
-LD

#64 To The Next 20 Years on 01.18.21 at 5:51 pm

But what happens when the cost of money inevitably rises from these all-time lows? Well, according to an RBC survey, it ain’t evah gonna happen. Two-thirds of Canadians have convinced themselves that emergency, once-in-a-lifetime, global-pandemic-induced interest rates are here to stay. The new normal. They say they’re completely ‘unconcerned’ about an increase.

The overwhelming majority of Canadians have been unconcerned about interest rates for almost 20 years, since the bull market reared its horned head in 2000. And those same people have lead full and meaningful lives, free from the stress of finances, as their house price rose every year like clockwork. Now 20 years is a whole mortgage paid off and a doubling at minimum of one’s equity. The net worth of the leveraged owner who was oblivious to macro and micro economic conditions far supersedes that of the patient, prudent, logical unleveraged renter investor.

It is easy to point to a fundamental disconnect between incomes and prices, but once you throw in the following to the mix in the coming months, there is no real downside to buying real estate – a massive return of the international student population; unprecedented 400k immigration along with a backlog from this year; all government pistons firing on ‘recovery’ with the dollars to match; 25% of Canada’s GDP tied to housing; a culture infatuated with ownership supported by every conceivable institution; and a global situation where every country is in the same boat.

In contrast, those rent loving portfolio feeding Canadians – who represent an anomaly and the extreme minority – have held their breath for years waiting to be correct on avoiding buying an ‘overvalued house.’ For years, the waters of irrational exuberance of buying was supposed to subside, and be replaced with the hard reality of financially over-stretched Canadians, and an impending correction that is brought with such debt levels.

If prices only went up with 700k mortgage deferrals, 20% unemployment, 8 million on CERB, the daily media doom and gloom of a pandemic, and a range of provincial taxes to stop speculation, what you do think will happen when the virus abates?

The answer – more of the same as everyone wants an ‘economic recovery.’ So rates will remain low; assistance dollars will continue to pour out as ‘no Canadian can be left behind;’ a continued loosening of housing regulations; new stimulus dollars to support every economic sector; and an ever increasing rise in the new worth of the owners.

Those without ownership are the ones who lost, and will continue to lose, in the coming years.

In six months time, we will be discussing record housing prices just like it was predicted 6 months ago, and talk of the looming recession that would jeapordize homeowners, will have faded from the discussion, much like the mortgage deferral cliff.

This would then be the first time in human history that a market went up forever. You are delusional. – Garth

#65 SoggyShorts on 01.18.21 at 5:54 pm

#45 Billy Buoy on 01.18.21 at 4:54 pm
I went to a Blue Rodeo concert a the Jube in Calgary some 20 years ago and just about every song had me thinking “Wow they sing this one too?”

I had no idea that I liked them as much as I did.

#66 Dogman01 on 01.18.21 at 6:00 pm

#28 Albertastrophe on 01.18.21 at 4:14 pm

40+ years of stewardship and they never ever learned a thing…Boom-Bust.

They had at least three booms to set it right. Heritage Trust fund the only good idea became a joke.

Squander, cronyism, myopic, carpetbaggers.

Dig up the stuff sell it and ship it, no value add.

Ultimately this was a demonstration of their convictions and ideology over a long term, results are in they are a failure.

Regardless of these guys , Oil and Gas still has a great future, world use will continue to increase at least for the next 50 years. But sadly for the our “commonwealth” it will not be Canadian O&G.

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 6:02 pm

#64 Loonie Doctor on 01.18.21 at 5:49 pm
I bought an RV before it was cool. Trend setter.
-LD
—————–
How old are you?
I came to Canada 44 years ago.
RVs everywhere.

#68 Phylis on 01.18.21 at 6:17 pm

#42 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm I think the short answers is, try getting a permit.

#69 Don Guillermo on 01.18.21 at 6:18 pm

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 5:41 pm
#26 Faron
It’s true that initially your music taste, like food, is determined what you were exposed to.
(that’s why I like October Fest music)
Joking, of course.
But, just like food, there’s also a required taste for music.
While still in Europe, I liked Neil Young, Leonard Cohen, the Guess Who etc.
When I came to North America, I started to listen to Country, Gospel and Jazz.
It is also true that hearing a song many times, could make you like it. Or the opposite of course.
I remember waiting for weeks for the release of the next Beatles singles. It turned out Hey Jude.
Huge disappointment.I did not like it. It liked the B-side Revolution better.
But Hey Jude became a huge hit, and was all over the stations, and eventually I started to sing along

******************************************

This is absolutely true. The state of Sinaloa is known through out Mexico for Banda Music. It was blended into their music culture back in the 1800’s when the Germans were very influential in Mazatlán. Think first Pacifico brewery. It’s full of tubas, other horns and snare drums. Most of us Gringos can’t stand it. To me it sounds like everything is too loud and out of tune. The locals love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE2E5miXlQM

#70 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 6:20 pm

Hmm I wonder what the market used toys is doing? We’re long time RV’ers but with covid we didn’t even take it out of storage last year. It was hard enough to get a reserved spot before everyone decided to buy a new RV. Last summer it was near impossible. And of course the friendly people at BC Parks banned Alberta license plates, further complicating the problem. That’s where all the good lakes are. I expect that ban could continue through this summer.

Might be a good time to liquidate. Anyone interested in a Ram 3500 diesel (very low miles) and a 29 foot fifth wheel? I’ve got a boat you can tow behind it too if you want.

#71 Left GTA on 01.18.21 at 6:22 pm

#65 The problem with your home being your investment… the roof, the furnace, update the electrical and plumbing, new sinks, new kitchen, new appliances, fancy taps… u get the idea. Its a money pit. Even new builds after 15 years everything needs to be updated or replaced. Your time and your money. Oh yah then the handy heloc for your new designer hand bags and that new car and those golf clubs and vacations and your kids wedding… Not a whole lot of equity left. I see a lot of stressed out over extended keep up with the jones idiots who think a tfsa is an investment. Stay invested!

#72 Ed on 01.18.21 at 6:24 pm

Sold my house 12 years ago…wife & I live in my 45′ motor home in the summer & 50′ sailboat in the winter.

Boat is in Hawaii & it’s hot today. Almost no Covid even though 10,000 tourists/day arriving.

Due to the pandemic its hard to buy a new dingy…

#73 Re-Cowtown on 01.18.21 at 6:29 pm

Biden’s first act of office will be to shaft Trudeau over the Keystone XL. In November, Biden gave Trudeau assurances that the pipeline was going through. And now we find that Biden lied to Trudeau and all Canadians.

And who could see that coming? Like, everybody… except our svelte and naive waif of a PM.

As Obama said about Biden: “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to $%^& things up.”

A major international screw-over and Biden hasn’t even taken the reins yet. That, everyone, is how it’s done!

#74 George S on 01.18.21 at 6:32 pm

Biden is only going to revoke the permits for the Keystone XL pipeline expansion not the existing Keystone pipeline. So he is not going to stop the flow of oil from AB to the gulf coast, he is only going to keep it from increasing. And it isn’t just Biden that will be responsible for stopping the expansion, it is also the strongly Republican states that the pipeline will run through and the reluctance to route the pipeline around Indian Reserves and disputed land to avoid confrontation and the then necessary endless court cases. Probably some of the American refineries would prefer Amazon rainforest, South American and Nigerian oil anyway because it is easier to refine. Oil sands will be there long after all the nice easily refined stuff is gone, in 50 years AB may become the new Saudi Arabia when the 2.5 billion people living in North America come begging for oil.
It is not really possible to compare AB to Norway because of the different attitude of people and the illusion created by a hidden (or not blatantly obvious) GST or VAT or PITAT or whatever you want to call it. Norway has a 25% VAT that they use to pay for things that AB uses (or used) oil revenue to pay for. So they have a nice big savings account for a “rainy day” but how do you know when it is the rainy day that you have been saving for? And how do you compensate for inflation?
I am sure that back in 1976 people were saying all sorts of similar things about how it would be impossible to raise the interest rates any more because the world would end for most people and 8.5% was as high as the economy could tolerate without destroying the country. Then came 1982….. The only way that you can possibly say that interest rates cannot go any higher is when?? I don’t think there is a situation when you can say that if you look at history. Talk to people that have gone through extreme inflation. It like some absurd cartoon show.

It is very hard to get people to understand that real estate agents are commission sales people that are hired by real estate sellers to sell their property for the highest price possible by any legal means necessary to get the highest price. They are in no way the ‘buyer’s best friend’. Of course they are going to promote the idea that interest rates can never increase, they have no “skin in the game”.

#75 Re-Cowtown on 01.18.21 at 6:38 pm

#42 Paully

Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?
———————————-

Would you invest billions building heavy oil refineries in a country that demonizes hydrocarbon energy? Me neither.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Foreign funded environmental lobby won’t allow refinery construction. They are our de facto government now.

We’ve sold off the rights to make environmental regulations to US funded mega-corps, just like we’ve sold off our rights to free-speech to them.

Trudeau is scared of them, not to you.

#76 Faron on 01.18.21 at 6:41 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 5:43 pm

#57

“required taste” refers to an overly aggressive sample attendant at COSTCO. Among other things. Or, opposite of a soup Nazi.

#77 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 6:41 pm

#8 Faron on 01.18.21 at 3:04 pm

“Finally on Keystone: At least in the past year with the COVID mess and as that continues into the future, it would have been very bad practice for any president to promote foreign oil over domestic production that had just taken a huge hit.”

Well, the oil market isn’t as simple as that. Most of the new oil production in the US is “shale oil”, which is very light. Great for making gasoline, but asphalt not so much. The Alberta oil is on the other hand much better for making heavy products like fuel oil, lubricants, chemicals, and of course asphalt.

Alberta oil doesn’t make much of an impact on US production because they just export what they can’t use domestically, preferably in the form of more valuable products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.).

Keystone would have never been proposed if there weren’t refineries in the states looking for heavy oil to complement their product stack. Our key competition is Venezuela, not Texas.

Cancelling Keystone at this point is not so simple as Biden thinks because much of it is already built. Cue the lawyers. We are likely to see something similar to when Trudeau had to buy out Trans Mountain.

#78 Trudi Woods on 01.18.21 at 6:42 pm

These guys spending money on toys ever think about the waitress bar staff musicians…its a long list…who have been out of work for months basically living on government pogey? There are charitable organizations …Canada helps…Salvation Army…Jez…how much stuff does a guy need?

#79 Ray Skunk on 01.18.21 at 6:45 pm

I’ve read some funny stuff on here over the years, but
water sports (the outdoor kind)
is now firmly in first place.

#80 Mattl on 01.18.21 at 6:48 pm

Ask Ryan what is happening to sportscards, the run up has been insane. Card prices doubling overnight, a MJ RC that was 25K last year is 225K this year. Madness.

Cheap credit is too big to fail. Unless the government is willing to tank the economy and take the subsequent hit to political capital, rates will never normalize.

Zero chance Trudeau will put his government at risk to normalize rates. Many more years of this ahead, so snorfle away.

And can you imagine what the economy would look like without all this free money?

Too Big To Fail.

#81 Pete from St. Cesaire on 01.18.21 at 6:49 pm

Why wouldn’t they? They’ve all heard “you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy”; so they’d better be spending what they have on what they’ve always wanted before it’s all taken. At the same time they don’t realize that they’re running straight into the trap that will make the Great Reset even more palatable.
Talk these days is about how the Great Reset is going to take people’s homes but allow them to live there for free. So many people are strategically upgrading to a huge house thinking that they’re outsmarting the system.
What they don’t realize is that, and please don’t take this as an anti-immigrant sentiment, the plans for vast immigration coupled with Trudeau’s Green Project is going to mean that new dwellings will not be built en-masse due to the great ‘carbon footprint’ involved in doing so. Instead the authorities will be assigning immigrant families to live with the people in the McMansions.

#82 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 6:49 pm

#15 Inequity on 01.18.21 at 3:21 pm

“Die Keystone die… sure it will help Alberta a bit. But it perpetuates the problem that the US won’t pay market value for Canadian oil. It also ships refining jobs to south of the border… and there have already been too many Canadian jobs lost to the US.”

Again, another misconception. Refineries are usually placed near the market, not at the source of the oil. Otherwise why wouldn’t Saudi Arabia do their own refining? All one has to do is travel the North East corridor by train to see that. Lots of refineries, no oil around except what comes by pipeline or boat.

And it is true that you can ship products by pipeline in batches, that’s what Trans Mountain does, but why wouldn’t the Texans want the refinery jobs in their own state?

#83 Linda on 01.18.21 at 6:55 pm

#28 ‘Alberta’ – further to the Heritage Fund issues you mentioned in your post – do you recall that market bet AimCo did at the end of 2019 that ended up blowing some 2.1 billion due to their less than stellar investment? Guess where that majority of that money was lost from. If you said ‘Heritage Fund’ you’re a winner! Oh wait, loser, but hey, not to worry. Kenney & crew legislated matters so AimCo can’t be fired if they make poor market decisions. Oh wait, that was only supposed to apply to AimCo being kept as the fund manager for the public pension funds – or was it? BTW, if Albertans drink the KoolAid & vote to withdraw from CPP guess what entity will be in charge of the newly formed APP? Don’t worry folks, we’ve the ‘best interests’ of Albertans in mind. Besides, by putting everything under AimCo’s control we will save money! Not ours, apparently.

#84 Faron on 01.18.21 at 6:59 pm

#42 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm

Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

That would be the model Canada chose for dairy. It’s great for producers, but hurts the consumer. Tell an American that we Canadians pay $8 for a small hunk of cheddar and they will reconsider their pending move to Canada. All fine and good (arguably) for a small portion of one’s personal budget. But, with energy, that’s a no go (for reasons) as much as you may want Canada to be an Arab state.

Looking at the data Sail Away sent, appears that Canada’s gasoline (regular unleaded) domestic:import ratio is 2:1 to 8:1 depending on the season and other factors. Varies with degree of refinement for other products. Allowing that ratio to vary freely in time to meet demand ensures that your prices at the pump don’t gyrate wildly. With domestic only production, that wouldn’t be possible.

#85 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 7:01 pm

#42 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm

“Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?”

That was what the Trans Canada proposal was all about but the fine people of Quebec and Ontario wanted to keep sourcing their oil from Norway and Saudi Arabia instead.

#86 VicPaul on 01.18.21 at 7:02 pm

“Airline bookings are down 90% and those people who do flit off to Mexico or Florida are being shamed”
… in an age of self-righteous narcissism, where shaming and bad-mouthing others – to the point of character assassination, abounds.

Anyone else feel it’s easier to “tend your own garden” in your cubicle/office/classroom, than risk enraging a colleague who (in best of times was a passive-aggressive fool) doesn’t like the way your district-issue mask fits…’cause, apparently, “I’ve got a right to my safety”?
Sheezes, Socks best save a little dough for mental health interventions for a growing number of off-kilter Canadians.

M57BC

#87 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 7:04 pm

#46 Don Guillermo on 01.18.21 at 4:57 pm
#41 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm
Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

*******************************************

Nonplused, Somewhere in the archives you explain this issue well. I always use an analogy that it’s kind of like telling Prairie farmers to sell loaves of bread instead of wheat. Maybe a bit simplified.

——————————-

I actually think that is a pretty good analogy.

#88 Tripp on 01.18.21 at 7:05 pm

John,

Kingfisher is a great brand, their boats are built like a tank and have a better resale value than most. Best if you are located near the ocean and plan for an offshore/coastal model, and could justify the storage/maintenance/operation/towing costs.

Otherwise, for lakes and rivers, any other reputable brand like Crestliner, Lund or Princecraft would fit the purpose for a lower cost, although I assume they have the same supply issues.

#89 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 7:07 pm

#52 cramar on 01.18.21 at 5:23 pm
Just heard about the programmer Stefan Thomas in San Fransisco who has 7002 bitcoins on an encrypted disc, and lost the password. Just checked and they are currently worth over $250 million U.S. He has 10 tries before the wallet is permanently encrypted. He has used 8 tries. Talk about nightmare stress!

——————————–

And people laugh at folks who keep their passwords on sticky notes!

#90 joblo on 01.18.21 at 7:07 pm

Killing Keystone hmmm…..
$1 houses again (1984)?
mass exodus, half population back to east?
Alberta have not prov?
Oh well!

#91 efficientsense on 01.18.21 at 7:15 pm

I’ve been watching for like 10 years seeing if interest rates will rise but it never happens. Maybe rise quarter point here and there but then gets cut again. Seems like it won’t happen for another 10 years. Crisis then chop chop.

#92 IHCTD9 on 01.18.21 at 7:15 pm

#46 Don Guillermo on 01.18.21 at 4:57 pm
#41 Paully on 01.18.21 at 4:46 pm
Why can’t we just build refineries in Canada and keep the oil and jobs at home?

*******************************************

Nonplused, Somewhere in the archives you explain this issue well. I always use an analogy that it’s kind of like telling Prairie farmers to sell loaves of bread instead of wheat. Maybe a bit simplified.
— – —-

I remember that post. Also add to it, all crude is not created equal. US tight oil and other light sweet crudes like from Saudi Arabia are ideally suited for refinement into fuels and solvents. Canadian and Venezuelan crude is much better suited for asphalt and shingles.

The refining process is different depending on the end product. If you don’t combine a feedstock with a process, your selling price will be out to lunch. Hence, you almost never see tar sands product feeding fuel refineries unless there is a global shortage or the feedstock is discounted sufficiently to account for the additional costs associated with refining it into fuels.

#93 earthboundmisfit on 01.18.21 at 7:19 pm

The two happiest days of “RV life” are the day you buy it and the day you sell it. They are the black hole of money pits. Spoken from experience.

#94 Doug Dannesh on 01.18.21 at 7:23 pm

Don’t worry, China I give maximum 15 to 20 years will end in tears more worse than the US. China can’t even feed all their people 1.4 billion. Like all communists, they think holding on to any form of tyranny is a big success. Remember, there was no better system than the US the last 75 years. All your globalists wet dream will fail.

Canada will be a third world country in due time and all the balanced portfolio’s and real estate, property, welfare, UBI, GAI etc. will not save us. It is done.

#95 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 7:29 pm

#79 Trudi Woods on 01.18.21 at 6:42 pm

“These guys spending money on toys ever think about the waitress bar staff musicians…its a long list…who have been out of work for months basically living on government pogey? There are charitable organizations …Canada helps…Salvation Army…Jez…how much stuff does a guy need?”

——————————

A dark insight into human nature I guess. How does that phrase go, “He who dies with the most toys, wins!”

Also “What is the definition of a broke musician? A musician.” Music is even worse than professional sports for income distribution. They say that only 1 in every 10,000 kids that starts Timbits hockey will ever play a single game in the NHL, but music is worse when it comes to the top money. And unlike the NHL, where they focus our attention on Sidney Crosby and the like, people who can actually skate, in music we get Pink, Adele, and Justin Bieber. Or Nickelback. I love to hate on Nickelback as much as Faron does, but if the only other CD available is Pink, cue them up.

#96 Quintilian on 01.18.21 at 7:29 pm

The isolation hasn’t made me nuts, at least not yet so I can still think.

Therefore, I reason that the anticipated surge of explosive demand projected, is already an almost spent force.

When the pandemic supports and the low rates expire, all that will be left is a monumental consumer and government debt.

Excess Demand has been borrowed from the future, but he debt remains.

#97 VicPaul on 01.18.21 at 7:32 pm

#16 WTF on 01.18.21 at 3:24 pm
Ya went hunting for a new golf bag, no friggin deals. Bucked up, got it today. Now Ready for my 3rd round this Jan in the Vandelusional Banana Belt.

*********

Lucky you! I ordered a golf bag online before Christmas. The response said it would be delivered Jan. 12th. I received an email on the 10th saying the order was cancelled. Not enough product?
Same story with a pair of shoes – order went through, waited fifteen days for delivery and received an email – order cancelled.
I played last Friday. A sublime January day of 14.6 degrees C and sunshine all afternoon. Two birdies…too many bogeys.

M57BC

#98 DON on 01.18.21 at 7:32 pm

#65 To The Next 20 Years on 01.18.21 at 5:51 pm
But what happens when the cost of money inevitably rises from these all-time lows? Well, according to an RBC survey, it ain’t evah gonna happen. Two-thirds of Canadians have convinced themselves that emergency, once-in-a-lifetime, global-pandemic-induced interest rates are here to stay. The new normal. They say they’re completely ‘unconcerned’ about an increass.

**********************

So…….a survey says that 66% have convinced themselves that emergency interest rates will never rise. This is when the logic goes off the rails and the phrase ‘consider the source’ kicks in.

Have you factored in how many home owners remortgaged in the past for various reasons and may still owe a lot after 20 years. Life happens the rest is just a dream.

Besides all these monthly payments add up and can overwhelm finances. Looking to pick up some cheap dirt bikes in the next 2 – 3 years.

Didn’t interest rates just tick higher last week.

#99 IHCTD9 on 01.18.21 at 7:33 pm

#71 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 6:20 pm
Hmm I wonder what the market used toys is doing?
——-

It’s doing the exact same thing. At least in Ontario.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 7:34 pm

Just walked by a the huge townhouse strata in my neighborhood.
They are replacing all their wooden fences with plastic ones.
Dispair not, Albertans.
There’s still a market for your oil.

#101 Drinking on 01.18.21 at 7:39 pm

I have to say, in all my years of living where I do, I have never seen more dog walkers or people who own pups. Good on them, they are lovely creatures, just wish they would be a little bit more responsible and pick up after them.

What’s up with all the feline’s out there roaming the neighborhood???? Those obnoxious magpies (who do not tolerate them at all) notify us instantly where one is; almost feel sorry for the felines, almost, but not quite! :)

#102 Drinking on 01.18.21 at 7:48 pm

#91 joblo

Although AB is under enormous strain, both Calgary and Edmonton grew there population by close to 2% in 2020; the province is growing, times are tough but there are many educated young folks keeping the economy going. Maybe a cancellation to K line (which is just another dollar loss to Canada) but it will be shipped by rail. A pipeline is much less intrusive to the environment, oh well, gas and oil use to pay Canada’s bills, now expect much higher taxes!!!

#103 Man of the cloth on 01.18.21 at 7:51 pm

Heard from my SIL today. She works for a real estate lawyer, north of TO. Says, they were busy up to the end of 2020, and now…..crickets. Yes, January is usually slow, but this is different. Very few listings. Could be the lockdown. Maybe people are realizing the prices, which are back to February 2017 levels and more, are absurd, regardless of the interest rates. Will likely be an interesting Spring.

#104 KNOW IT ALL on 01.18.21 at 7:52 pm

MMT buddy!!!

Keep er coming.

Even when rates go up and everybody goes bankrupt life will still be great.

We’ll all just go back out and buy all these brand new toys 2nd hand for cheap using the same dollar bills we went bankrupt off of.

We cant lose.

#105 Todd on 01.18.21 at 7:56 pm

We are investor/savers, not buying anything in this collective mental breakdown of consumer spending. We did become liquid millionaires two weeks ago though. All due to renting and that boring balanced portfolio thingy. Thanks Garth!

#106 TurnerNation on 01.18.21 at 7:59 pm

Not many surprises for me. What the globalists want is total control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements/Travel. Controlled as animals.
If you are 20 years old you just lost a year of your live. That’s 5% of your life gone. No normalcy, no school events, dating, etc; bombarded with the worst propaganda.
Another year of this will wipe out 10% of their lifetime -lost.

..
They are not even hiding what this is all about. It’s right here. All the globalists plans, their dreams are being rolled out. In the mean time most every country is locked down under threat of police and military law.
That’s how it is going down. Locked inside as the new world order is rolled out.

I have always called the Crown Virus. The one to rule them all. Lo and behold CBC agrees. Their King Virus:

https://www.cbc.ca/shortdocs/shorts/king-covid
What does the current pandemic look like from the point of view of the COVID-19 virus? In this provocative and whimsical animated film, the virus voices his mission —
to save the planet!

With evocative animation, King Covid reminds us of our disastrous conditions — from air pollution to overpopulation. With the planet at the brink of destruction, the virus justifies having launched this pandemic to stop humans so they could change direction before destroying our shared habitat.

#107 Northshore guy on 01.18.21 at 8:01 pm

Garth,
I don’t think people are dumb enough to believe that BoC interest rates will remain at 0% but they do believe the chances of it going over 2% are very minimal in short term. Not happening in next 5 yrs at least.
And if for some reason BoC does raise rates 8 times its gonna be a very slow process, where you know they watch the data carefully and then raise couple of times a year.
But when the next recession comes they will chop it back to 0% in a month.

The BoC does not set mortgage rates. How often does that need to be stated? – Garth

#108 Faron on 01.18.21 at 8:11 pm

#96 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 7:29 pm

#79 Trudi Woods on 01.18.21 at 6:42 pm

…other CD available…

What’s a CD? I think I microwaved all of mine.

The right answer, Nonplused, is silence. Or gouging one’s ears out with a nail file. Anything but Nickleback.

Luckily, Spotify has me covered for almost anything I could want to hear that I don’t already have in my SD card.

#109 Armpit on 01.18.21 at 8:20 pm

Three words….for the next two years.

High Inflation, higher wages, and low interest rates.

#110 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.21 at 8:21 pm

Warren Buffett’s train-based oil transportation quasi-monopoly loves today’s decision. The enviros should be oh so proud.

#111 Ustabe on 01.18.21 at 8:57 pm

My father was a contemporary of and friends with Ed Chynoweth. Those of you who know hockey know he basically ruled major junior in Canada for decades. My recall of things is there is a real good living to be made outside of being Sidney Crosby. If you want to.

Ditto with musicians. I have a from grade school friend who I bug by calling him a CBC musician. For years he made a living (and it was a good one) doing intros, outros and studio work for the CBC. On the side he played studio gigs for a vast cross section of Canada’s recording stars, individual artists and bands. His foyer and stairway wall up to the second floor are lined with gold records he contributed to. He’s not delivering pizza as a side gig. But neither did he swing for the fences, he just made certain he was stable, competent and willing.

You can make real money in the fine arts in Canada…again if you want to.

My brother and I had some rental real estate and we purposely aimed for the Calgary middle manager. No houses on the hill, nothing fancy pants but also nothing we wouldn’t live in ourselves. You can make money in the housing biz by laying low….if you want to.

My forward facing business/career was owning and operating small cafes/diners. We made certain we were in blue collar neighborhoods, we served them well and I can assure you there is more profit in selling a beef dip with chips and gravy times 20 a day than selling a Caesar salad with a filet ten times. I’d rather have a joint selling lobster rolls than a spot selling lobster dinner with flowers on the table.

My point is you don’t get to crack a home run every time at the plate. Just get on base. Settle in for the full nine innings. Not everyone is a Gretzky. Dean Chynoweth (son of Ed…see above) played a long minute in the NHL and was done but he makes a pretty good living running major junior feeder teams now…he’s not selling cars I can assure you.

Enough mixed metaphors, eh? Those of you that get it, great. Those of you that sit around selling your time for wages and waiting for the Christmas bonus each year won’t.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.21 at 9:02 pm

@#77 Trudi Woods
“Jez…how much stuff does a guy need?”

+++

I’m not sure but most of my friends have to reno the kitchen , the bedroom, repaint everything before the wives allow them their “toys”.
Maybe you should ask the wives?

#113 Victor V on 01.18.21 at 9:06 pm

Tax hikes may await high earners as income gap widens: CIBC’s Tal

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tax-hikes-may-await-high-earners-as-income-gap-widens-cibc-s-tal-1.1550344

“We are talking about this cash sitting on the sidelines, we’re talking about this pent-up demand.We know where the money is, and we know that there’s more money where the money is than we thought, because of this huge increase in well-paying jobs,” he said.

“Here we see a very, very significant asymmetrical picture, and it would be very tempting for governments to actually look at taxation down the road when we are safely far away from the crisis to raise taxes, and I think they will.”

#114 Frank Blood on 01.18.21 at 9:12 pm

Re: #54 Mountain king “this country needs a big vision, how about a high speed train connecting Windsor to Ottawa? and get it done in 5 years at whatever the cost”
Or how about just getting the TransCanada highway twinned all through BC. It is 2021 and the highway is equivalent to 1950 Europe. They bore tunnels through mountain ranges in Europe….c’mon Canada it’s an embarrassment.

#115 Chris on 01.18.21 at 9:16 pm

We are now in the ‘too big to fail’ territory. Which means the market has failed. All market forces that would have been used to keep household debt in check have been artificially restrained/constrained through policy.

While we have the deferred mortgage program in place with 800K homeowners not paying anything on their mortgage, we also have banks giving uber-sized mortgages to people who can’t afford them.

When does this all end? When can governments no longer manipulate the demand/supply dynamics and let the financial realities take hold?

#116 Drinking on 01.18.21 at 9:56 pm

#112 Ustabe

I get it; great advice!

#117 Sail Away on 01.18.21 at 10:28 pm

#111 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.21 at 8:21 pm

Warren Buffett’s train-based oil transportation quasi-monopoly loves today’s decision. The enviros should be oh so proud.

————-

Yes! The best part is that we’re a welcoming crowd. Come in, come in, there’s enough for everybody!

#118 Sail Away on 01.18.21 at 10:28 pm

#111 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.21 at 8:21 pm

Warren Buffett’s train-based oil transportation quasi-monopoly loves today’s decision. The enviros should be oh so proud.

————-

Yes! The best part is that we’re a welcoming crowd. Come in, come in, there’s enough for everybody! Profit, that is.

#119 Peter Crandon on 01.18.21 at 10:37 pm

efficientsense, does not matter what interest rates do. Millions in the US, Canada will lose their homes, condos etc.

High taxes, high cost of living, out of control spending, debt, money printing, money devaluation will make life so unbearable that people wished they were never born. Biden, democrats, China, European Union, UN, socialists, communists, marxists etc. are going to destroy Canada, US, Europe the world.

#120 Bill on 01.18.21 at 10:45 pm

Stephen Harper: “Unless the U.S. becomes a catastrophe, it’s hard to see what the alternative is to the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Other than you know gold, bitcoin, … a whole basket of things, right?”
:O
What a relief he’s not running anything. – Garth

Ya thank god we have Trudeau. NOT..I think Steve looks like GENIUS next to him….No?

#121 Doug in London on 01.18.21 at 10:53 pm

@Nonplused, post #86:
I think it was some, but not all, of the fine people in Quebec that didn’t want the Energy East pipeline. While I’m all for reducing world fossil fuel use going forward, in the time being it makes more sense to use oil produced in western Canada here in eastern Canada rather than struggle to sell that western Canadian oil dirt cheap and buy expensive imported oil here in the east. Seems like a no brainer to me.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 10:55 pm

#71 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 6:20 pm
Hmm I wonder what the market used toys is doing? We’re long time RV’ers but with covid we didn’t even take it out of storage last year. It was hard enough to get a reserved spot before everyone decided to buy a new RV. Last summer it was near impossible. And of course the friendly people at BC Parks banned Alberta license plates, further complicating the problem. That’s where all the good lakes are. I expect that ban could continue through this summer.

Might be a good time to liquidate. Anyone interested in a Ram 3500 diesel (very low miles) and a 29 foot fifth wheel? I’ve got a boat you can tow behind it too if you want.
————
That’s a good example why spending money on the spur of the moment recreational equipment just being used for a few days a year is a stupid idea.
I bought a camp trailer. Used it once.
Found out I was not a camper dude.
Had to sell it a steep loss.

#123 Diamond Dog on 01.18.21 at 11:07 pm

Not sure why so many comments are mere guesses not based on anything factual when it comes to Keystone. Everything is there online to flesh out. Required reading for anyone who doesn’t want to guess concerning why Keystone XL hasn’t been built and will not be any time soon:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

Keystone pipelines had 4 phases of construction, 3 of which were already built as evidenced by this map below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline#/media/File:Keystone-pipeline-route.svg

What delayed Phase 4 due to be approved in 2015 wasn’t so much environmental push back. Think. If the U.S. wanted this pipeline built, it would be approved and built. Lets be clear about this, Trump had 2 years with all 3 houses Republican back in 2016 and 2017. If America wanted XL, it would have been built and there are two glaring reasons why Americans wouldn’t want XL expansion built, so lets explore them.

The first is, Canada overdeveloped their production of extra heavy crude during the Harper years without the pipe and facilities to get it to market on the hope and prayer that the U.S. would build the pipe and facilities to take it downstream. The fact that Canada didn’t have a plan B to get it to market turned extra heavy WCS into cheap oil for the U.S. to buy as production from North Dakota ate away at excess capacity flooding the market with excess oil. Why on Earth would the U.S. wreck a good thing for them? It’s a no brainer, don’t build XL and enjoy Canadian oil on the cheap. In short, we. were. fools.

Secondly and this also had a great deal to do with it, North Dakota ramped up their oil production from a measly 300,000 BOE per day in 2010 to a whopping 1.4 million BOE’s per day by 2019. That’s a 1.1 million BOE increase in North Dakota. Take a look at that jpg map of Keystone expansions again. The first 2 expansions upped capacity by 590,000 BOE per day to mid west refineries. Phase 3 added a further 700,000 BOE to Texas. These lines are already running at capacity from crude coming from North Dakota and Saskatchewan (Bakken) without one drop from Keystone XL.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPND2&f=A

To do Keystone XL, the U.S. would have to twin Phase 2 and 3a & 3b to handle the extra capacity and that’s not all. Texas would have to increase their refinery capacity in a state that is struggling to keep up with their own mind bending oil production increases (as well as Oklahoma). Without the capacity to take it, Keystone is a non starter. To see Keystone happen, Texas would have to drop new oil production to a trickle and continue to expand refinery capacity enough to take it. All indications are that dramatically slowed oil production out of Texas & Oklahoma isn’t in the works any time soon.

As it is, the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil. The U.S. is already selling some of the extra heavy crude imports out of Canada they can’t use which further cuts the profit margins of Canadian producers. The answer is we Canadians have to export our unwanted extra heavy crude to the west coast which, as we all know, is why the Federal government now owns Trans mountain.

Having said all that, all this talk about Biden cancelling XL (obvious PR to satisfy voters/donors out of Cali) and environmentalists and natives wrecking it (at least on the American side) for Canadian producers is noise. In short, we screwed up years ago by overproducing without anticipating 1.1 million BOE per day of new production coming out of North Dakota alone. It’s the fault of past governments and the Canadian oil industry itself for not anticipating what took place. Any other answer than what readers just read on Keystone XL is just noise.

#124 Dave on 01.18.21 at 11:42 pm

But what happens when the cost of money inevitably rises from these all-time lows?

Bargain boats on kijiji I guess?

#125 Bill on 01.19.21 at 12:12 am

#115 Frank Blood

Population Frank and were broke now.

#126 Nonplused on 01.19.21 at 12:18 am

#185 SoggyShorts on 01.18.21 at 1:09 pm
#144 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 1:19 am

I understand your points, they are valid. We disagree but more in implementation than context. This thing, if they do it, is going to require a stack of regulations.

#127 Monty Python's Flying Circus on 01.19.21 at 12:24 am

With central banks money printing it seems there is no bond market anymore and rates will stay zero forever.

Their bosses said it themselves as they encourage ‘confidence’ and spending.

So why not spend it all? If you are saver, money won’t be worth much in the future. Borrowing and spending is a win-win as the inflated money to be returned would be worth little in real terms. Like getting something for nothing or very little.

Plus the drama teacher promised guaranteed income.
Nothing can go wrong.

#128 slick on 01.19.21 at 1:23 am

2 foot-itis. Bought a 20 year old,30 foot cabin cruiser 2 years ago. could sell now for double what we paid. Boats, hate them. the only thing efficient about them is to get rid of money. Gas, slip fee, booze, repairs, storage, etc. Every trip out requires a restaurant meal. It just doesn’t end.

Our local boat dealer can’t get boats in now. Last year he was selling $150K-$400K boats to first time boaters.

Luckily, I got my new quad in Dec 2019.
Snowmobiles, the same shortage.

I have been looking for a F150 Lariat supercab for a year now. nothing under $70K, if you can find one.

My kids have been waiting 4 months for their living room furniture. Every month is a call saying it has been delayed. What do you do? Cancel, and get on another wait list? 3 month wait for a stand up freezer? Appliance store said I could get on the list to call if some arrived. Price wasn’t even discussed.

At least there is lots of weed around.

#129 Jane24 on 01.19.21 at 2:37 am

At 66 years old I know that this will end as it always ends with small ads that say things like –

Three bedroom family tent for sale. Used twice.
or
Tow caravan. like new, used for one summer only.

Always does. Then you buy these toys at half price. For the price of a fully loaded Canadian new RV you could get a 3 bed fully renovated farmhouse in France/Italy/Spain. Just Saying. Hit rightmove.co.uk

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.19.21 at 8:29 am

@#130 Jane24
“For the price of a fully loaded Canadian new RV you could get a 3 bed fully renovated farmhouse in France/Italy/Spain. Just Saying.”

+++

Have you purchased the estate in Brittany to add to your vast and growing land holdings marching like Roman Legions from Britain back to Italy’s toe?

Oh, and speaking of toe’s….. a “tow caravan” is called a “tent trailer” back in the colonies.
Don’t want the grubby colonials scratching their heads in confusion over the faux Brit accent.
I’m surprised you didnt toss in a few “pikey” references…..when talking about buying a caravan.

Never trust a pikey

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.19.21 at 8:33 am

@#121 Bill
“Ya thank god we have Trudeau. NOT..I think Steve looks like GENIUS next to him….No?”

+++++

An oxygen deprived turnip would be more eloquent than “Stutters the Sox puppet”.

#132 Penny Henny on 01.19.21 at 9:28 am

#80 Ray Skunk on 01.18.21 at 6:45 pm
I’ve read some funny stuff on here over the years, but
water sports (the outdoor kind)
is now firmly in first place.

///////////////

Remember the Research in Motion jobs (RIM jobs)?

#133 BillyBob on 01.19.21 at 9:29 am

Asked previously but not answered:

How then does this remarkable spending glut fit with the thesis of “pent-up demand” that we’re ALSO told is coming?

Of course the sectors that are presently devastated like travel and hospitality will see some, but from the stats presented it doesn’t exactly look like consumer demand for everything from houses to toys isn’t being met, does it?

Oh and Downie was undeniably intelligent but the Tragically Hip are almost comically overrated. A basement band for Leafs fans to drink crappy beer and nod their mulleted heads to. There’s no “mystery” as to why they never got big in the US. Blue Rodeo is…ok.

Lest this be taken as simple bashing of Toronto bands, not at all. I’d trade both groups for Margo Timmins’ voice.

#134 Sail Away on 01.19.21 at 9:30 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.19.21

An oxygen deprived turnip

————–

In Austria, in almost every case where a turnip is used as the murder weapon, the police discover evidence was planted.

#135 Dharma Bum on 01.19.21 at 9:46 am

Thoughts for the day:

I confess…I purchased a stationary bike. I converted a bedroom into a mini gym. Mostly, I drink beer and sleep in it.

I was on a Jestski once. It’s how I flew to Poland.

Canada is definitely headed toward third world status. To get ready, I spent about a half hour at the Costco Business Centre in Scarborough.

Now that Keystone is dead, what’s gonna happen to the Keystone Kops?

#136 OK, Doomer on 01.19.21 at 10:10 am

#135 Sail Away on 01.19.21 at 9:30 am
#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.19.21

An oxygen deprived turnip

————–

In Austria, in almost every case where a turnip is used as the murder weapon, the police discover evidence was planted.

__________________________________

And that was where I snorted my coffee out through my nose this morning. Well done!!

#137 Phylis on 01.19.21 at 10:17 am

Secondary uses for keystone scrap. Ginormous waterslide. Community bongs. Affordable housing.

#138 Bill on 01.19.21 at 11:18 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz

LOL
Yes the Turnip or T2 if you like, a Greta hugger, a pipeline crusher.
I’m not in the oil biz or live in Alberta but I feel their pain. Family and fellow Canadians they are.
Here’s some facts on Keystone. A short blurb and the fight is not about emissions…
https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell/pink-slips-for-keystone-xl-pipeline-workers

#139 Calgary Rip Off on 01.19.21 at 11:23 am

In Alberta as in other places, the vaccine rollout is unclear.

As it stands I have an appointment for the treatment next Monday. It seems the risk of Covid exceeds the risk of the experimental covid rna treatment. Nevertheless the CEO of AHS has said yesterday that there is not enough vaccine.

People seem to think that the vaccine will fix everything. This is not supported by science. Past flu shots provided some immunity but were administered often and without absolute efficacy. Additionally, people obtaining any Covid 19 preventative measure have been infected. It is unwise to bank all faith in something like a vaccine. It is still unclear as to what predictive factors are for severe covid. And therefore treatment of Covid 19 for prevention and during acute infection is still unclear. Add in the typical human lack of strategy and it is no wonder

Given that housing construction materials are now more expensive and housing costs outside of Calgary are up, it seems that humans will adapt to limitations posed by Covid 19.

It seems likely it will take several years to amass clinical data as to factors predisposing to severe Covid 19 infection vs asymptomatic response.

#140 SoggyShorts on 01.19.21 at 11:56 am

#127 Nonplused on 01.19.21 at 12:18 am
#185 SoggyShorts on 01.18.21 at 1:09 pm
#144 Nonplused on 01.18.21 at 1:19 am

I understand your points, they are valid. We disagree but more in implementation than context. This thing, if they do it, is going to require a stack of regulations.

**************************
I think that would be the biggest mistake they could possibly make.
Any new taxes should aim for K.i.s.s
The simpler, the better. Anything complex will either have loopholes to start or get diddled with by someone to add loopholes later.
I’d even put simplicity above fairness as a goal when implementing it.

#141 Theyounggreek on 01.19.21 at 12:07 pm

I could see Garth, Dorthy and a new dog cruising down the highway in a brand new Caravan, towing a King Fisher, Tiësto blaring on the stereo, plumes of vape escaping from the windows…..

#142 IHCTD9 on 01.19.21 at 12:25 pm

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.21 at 10:55 pm

That’s a good example why spending money on the spur of the moment recreational equipment just being used for a few days a year is a stupid idea.
I bought a camp trailer. Used it once.
Found out I was not a camper dude.
Had to sell it a steep loss.
____

Lots of people do stuff like this all the time. All it takes is a little money burning a hole in someone’s pocket, and some impulsivity.

The king producer of nearly new, half price goods on Kijiji is stuff that Parents bought for their kids.

If you do it right, you can score a great deal on Kijiji on “X”, and then enjoy “X” for 2-3 years, then sell “X” for the same or even more than what you originally paid for it. I got a bro who is a professional at doing this. Not happening now in the Covid economy though…

#143 Inequity on 01.19.21 at 1:04 pm

#83 Nonplused

I’m not sure what misconception you are talking about, since your answer does not match what I was talking about… based on your other answers, it looks like you are more interested in arguing your point and less interested if it matches or not.

#144 Sail Away on 01.19.21 at 1:06 pm

With my thousands of relatives in the US, there have now been several families who have contracted Covid. Here’s an account of one family of 6:

———

The event of our household contracting covid19 is interesting. We feel lucky considering the multiple possibilities. On Friday November 6th we learn through a phone call from the high school principal that Helen had a minimal exposure to a positive student the Tuesday before, November 3rd. The facts around the exposure were that Helen sat behind and diagonally from this student for one hour of class time. They were 6+ feet apart and wearing masks. The probability of her actually contracting the virus seemed low, but I called my mom and let her know we would not be visiting for a couple of weeks. The protocol is that only Helen would have to self quarantine, but being it was the weekend we decided it would make sense for us all to stay home.

Surprisingly it was Jenna who started vomiting on Saturday that drew suspicion. I thought she was having anxiety to the news of Helen being exposed. Later that day she had a 100.5 fever, so I suspected it was something else.

I had read that limiting the amount of exposure to the virus can reduce the severity of the symptoms, so we decided to move Jeff and the boys into Jenna’s room, and Jenna moved into my room. We also tried to keep our distance from them.

By Monday morning, Jenna’s vomiting had continued, but the fever disappeared; however Helen and I woke with achy bodies and sore throats. I requested Dr. Hillstrom to give Jenna a covid19 test. The staff were perfect in their protocol when admitting us into the ER.

My symptoms were more evident than Jenna’s, but she needed an adult with her. Due to my obvious symptoms we spent a long time sitting alone in the vestibule waiting for a room. Once we were allowed into the ER a nurse dressed in a full hazmat type suit started the IV fluids and medicines to stop the vomiting. They entered the room only three times. I’m assuming this was because they had to suit up each time to come in. Good for them for continuing their precautions because we were both unknowingly positive for covid19 at that time.

We received word from Dr. Hillstrom that Jenna’s test came back positive. I feel like Jeff benefited greatly from this. He is on a strong blood thinner to manage his AFIB, which was an unexpected advantage as it prevented him from getting blood clots in his lungs. So with all the preventive care Jeff seemed to come out of this better than the rest of us, except for the boys, who were also positive but didn’t have any symptoms.

I was in bed for about 3 days and lethargic on the couch for another three. I had a day when I thought I was better only to wake up feeling bad again the next morning. After eight days, I felt I had finally beaten the virus. Later that day I lost my sense of taste and smell. My mouth and airway felt very sore like I had scalded it with hot coffee, but I couldn’t see any sores or signs of why my mouth was stinging. My taste and smell returned after eight days. I still think something is a little off with my senses, but it’s nearly back to normal. Helen was achy and had a sore throat for a few days, but continued to keep up with her classes online rather easily. Jenna was ill for about 6 days, and tired and weak with cold type symptoms for a few more days. She bounced back quickly once the virus was gone.

This virus is strange. All six of us tested positive for covid19. Jenna was the only one who had a fever. I was the only one who lost my sense of taste and smell. We all handled it differently.

It was shortly after the call from Dr. Hillstrom with Jenna’s positive test result that the school called to tell us Jenna had been exposed at school on Thursday the 5th. An asymptomatic student had gone to school for a week without realizing he was positive. Many 7th graders were out due to that exposure. I’m so glad we decided to be over cautious with Helen’s minimal exposure and avoided going out that weekend.

#145 Apocalypse NOW on 01.19.21 at 1:43 pm

The countdown is now mere hours to total chaos.

How many in the National Guard will rise up to support Trump?

How many explosive events, assassinations and more in the next days?

PREPARE

#146 GAV on 01.19.21 at 1:45 pm

Speaking of ironic justice, Michigan threatens to shut down Endbridge Line 5 which will cut off all of Central Canada from that “incompetent conservatively led part of Canada known as the west”.

If that happens Central Canada will have to import oil and dump thousands of jobs.

Who elected the “Energy East cancelling Liberals”?

Oh the irony.

#147 Faron on 01.19.21 at 2:01 pm

#134 BillyBob on 01.19.21 at 9:29 am

Of course the sectors that are presently devastated like travel and hospitality will see some, but from the stats presented it doesn’t exactly look like consumer demand for everything from houses to toys isn’t being met, does it?

Reading off a chart:
US consumer spending for “goods” ended 2020 at ~7% above previous year
US consumer spending for “services” ended 2020 at ~7% below previous year
US consumer spending total ended 2020 3% below previous year

I think this highlights the dual effect of the COVID economy to simultaneously stuff the pockets of some and drain the pockets of others or at least give them strong incentives to save. The WFHers who are no longer spending due to being cooped up at home are buying the toys now. Their demand is alive and well albeit shifted to COVID friendly spending. But there’s a large cohort that is saving for survival. They may not be big ticket purchasers, but they still buy the umpteen million products at Walmart during “normal” times. When the pressure comes off of them is when the pent up demand hits. The WFHers will just shift their spending to other things (dining, entertainment, travel) and boost demand back up and probably overshoot typical spending if they have accrued any savings. I’m a heck of a lot more likely to dine at the yacht club if I have a surplus of cash.

And, never underestimate a North American’s ability to spend money via cash or credit when times are bright.

#148 RyYYZ on 01.19.21 at 2:01 pm

I guess I was part of that bump in off-road motorcycle sales (assuming dual-purpose counts) this summer. And it wasn’t easy to find the bike I did buy, actually. I maybe better sell it this spring before there’s a glut of lightly-used new bikes on the market. Although it’s fun I’ve found that off-road opportunities within riding range of Hamilton are limited, and it’s also way too easy to crash and hurt yourself off road. But I’ll just be replacing it with another, eventually – still have the big bike in the garage, just waiting for the opportunity to stretch its legs and go somewhere distant.

#149 jess on 01.19.21 at 2:29 pm

a childrens camp becomes Putin’s palace

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI&feature=youtu.be

#150 Barb on 01.19.21 at 2:48 pm

A female commentator on BNN this morning stated that with her first “big person” cheque, while in Paris, bought a $1,700+ pair of shoes (the brand name was unintelligible to me).

People are insane.

#151 Cici on 01.19.21 at 6:37 pm

It’s not just the boats, bikes, quads and other hugely big ticket items. There’s low to no stock on everything recreational, such as common board games, cross-country skis, snowshoes and gym equipment, especially treadmills.

Personally, I don’t believe people are actually getting “richer” in terms of their so-called “cushy” WFH jobs and salaries (sure you save on gas but you’re spending a lot more on Hydro and fitting out your WFH workspace).

I think the real “gains” are coming from lower mortgage monthlies and even more so, rising home equity that can be borrowed against at all time low rates to unleash cash like an ATM heist. That in turn’s being used to buy up everything the consumer heart desires… oh, and why not throw in a bunch of highly volatile tech and bitcoin stocks too (instant wealth creators since the pandemic).

How this all ends is uncertain. But one thing’s for sure: the herd is counting on low rates forever, and they just might get them.

#152 Al on 01.19.21 at 7:39 pm

So in 5 years they MAY be 3.5% …the horror! 133% increase ( sounds much scarier!!). Long term trend is down. No one disagrees.

Now that I’ve joined the clairvoyant game, watch them sky rocket ha!

#153 Doug in London on 01.19.21 at 10:32 pm

@GAV, post #147:
That will be interesting to see. It will be a repeat of other times, most recently 2008, when fuel prices went way up and no one wanted big gas guzzling SUVs, trucks, or big cars. Meanwhile you couldn’t get a fuel sipping econo car. Who says it can’t happen again?