The forecast

Whap! This new year starts with an abrupt knock to the side of the head. Oh yeah, it’ll be a better twelve months than the last dozen. But 2021 will not be calm. Here are some of the things that you should prepare for, or at least watch in bemusement…

The first week of the year brings the final gasp for the Trumpers. Two run-off elections in Georgia on Tuesday will decide if Senate control stays red or goes blue. They are as bitter as the presidential contest was, as rife with untruths, threats and scaremongering. The polls show a race too tight to call, but in that state this is already a fail for the Republicans. If the Dems win in the same week Biden is officially endorsed by Congress (that happens Tuesday) Trump’s hold on the party may fade. Meanwhile his petulant refusal to concede and baseless claims of election fraud have raised $200 million in donations – sad little gifts from struggling common folk to an egocentric billionaire for his personal use. What a stunning outcome.

The threat here is to Biden, of course. Trump’s efforts to render his election illegitimate to tens of millions of people may make the battle against the virus more difficult. Longer. And that would delay economic re-opening, keep 9.8 million unemployed and likely impact markets. It’s a recipe for more volatility in the first few months, so be ready for it. But ignore it.

Given this, CBs are certain to hold the line on interest rates through all of 2021 and into the first half of the next year. If vaxing lags and lockdowns continue (over 20 million Canadians are now under the thumb) our guys might drop their benchmark rate a little – like 10 basis points. You will never in your lifetime see lower mortgage rates. If you do it means we have a depression.

There will be a federal election. Trudeau will win a majority. There will be a leadership contest in 2025. Chrystia will take it. This blog will have a cow.

This will be the year of the vax, then the angst of WFH. So far the vaccine rollout has been abysmal, with scant supplies, erratic clinic schedules, confusion over when people can get their shot and the lack of a national registration base or vax passport. Things will change. The military will be engaged. Citizens will clamour for their inoculations. By the summer or fall we will finally stop talking about the damn pathogen. Every. Single. Day.

But, guess what? As the virus retreats many employers will start demanding employees return to their workplace incarceration. No wonder. For many, WFH is a joke. Productivity’s fallen by a fifth, according to studies. Response time among Zoomie colleagues has eroded. As much as workers – especially those under 35 – love the work-life balance (likely 30/70) and enjoy being paid to walk the dog and do groceries, this is a temporary phenom, not a structural change across society.

As Toronto lawyer Howard Levitt points out: if the boss tells you to return, you must. WFH is a gift, not a right. If you refuse, you can be dismissed with cause. Or granted remote status, but with a pay cut. As for being vaccinated, as this blog spelled out some time ago, you either roll up the sleeve or dust off the resume.

“Companies with employees who have to work in close proximity to co-workers, customers or others can be required to vaccinate or be fired. There is no freedom of conscience or privacy rights which precludes this, and arguments to the contrary are legally bunk.”

Lots of real estate news this year, too. Because Covid will rage mercilessly until the thaw, the trends of 2021 will continue for several months. Those include roaring sales and rising prices, especially in the suburbs. A further decline in the value and appeal of urban condos, especially anything under 600 square feet. More drops in rents, which have already crashed 20% in DT Toronto in the last eight months. Historic high prices will be achieved by mid-year for detached homes in almost all major Canadian markets, except in the Republic of Kenney.

After that, as downtowns slowly repopulate, herd immunity is gradually established, the city lockdowns come to an end and mortgage rates bounce off the bottom along with bond yields, the nesting, get-out-of-Dodge mentality will fade. Many people will wonder what the hell they were thinking with they moved to Barrie or Squamish.

As for investing, several smart people reckon US stocks will gain 20% in 2021. If the virus is actually pushed to the margins a global recovery will hike commodity prices, allowing the TSX to finally outperform. Bond yields may fall further in the winter woes, pushing prices up, but this is unlikely to hold. Unloved REITs could have a great year as commercial RE restores. When rates begin the inevitable creep higher, preferreds will benefit. But there are risks. The hoodies are out of control, as recent tech IPOs and BTC witness. Their naiveté and bravado presage a significant (but likely temporary) blow-out.

BTW, this is a Year of the Ox. That last one was in 2009, when we eventually burst from the credit crisis funk into a decade-long romp. Keep that in mind. Roaring twenties?

169 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.03.21 at 2:47 pm

For the record I never followed the “Q-anon” honeypot.
I joked here I only follow ‘G-Anon’ for all my leaks/leakage (That’s Gartho-Anon…this weblog)

– In Oct/Nov I *nearly* posted here to take your vacations by end of year – else, not be able to. I did not post this – sounded a bit doomerish. But now in Jan we see the news, you must prove your health via test and once you are proved clean…yep you still must quarantine still! Perhaps even in Camp Fed. Science eh. There’s no way out of the New System. Guilty.

It may be getting much much worse, here’s what they are pushing for.

–>Notice the Provincial flags on the web site are all seperate and in their own bubble circles, on their website<–
I bet they are talking about Interprovincial borders/bubbles – Atlantic Canada was a test. All that sacrifice and still their freedoms there did not return. See what I mean about the New System? Brutal.

https://covidstrategicchoices.ca/

https://twitter.com/csc_canada_
#CanadianShield by COVID Strategic Choices Group
@csc_canada_
The Canadian Shield: A New Strategy to Protect Canadians From COVID & From the Fight Against COVID.

….

2. Here comes the sell job against meat. Look for something like this every day, lockstep around the world.
Remember this is about control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements/Travel.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/masks-for-cows-aim-to-filter-burps-to-curb-greenhouse-gas-emissions-1.5251619

3. All our partners- for a bunch of nobodies the WEF crew has every major global company signed on.
Mainstream news in late 2019-20 reported on the record CEO departures. Were they not on board with 2021?

https://www.weforum.org/partners/#J

4. MRNA science, They call it their Operating System. As you know Operating Systems require regular updates. So, expect CV21-25 etc etc. A

https://www.modernatx.com/mrna-technology/mrna-platform-enabling-drug-discovery-development
"Our Operating System
Recognizing the broad potential of mRNA science, we set out to create an mRNA technology platform that functions very much like an operating system on a computer. It is designed so that it can plug and play interchangeably with different programs. "

– This is long a goal of the elites, Frontman Musk is selling us this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink
"Neuralink Corporation is an American neurotechnology company founded by Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs)"
"

#2 yvr_lurker on 01.03.21 at 2:48 pm

Am not as optimistic. There will be much to learn about how the effectiveness of the vaccine and the protection it offers. Moreover, everything to open up internationally, the vax needs to go to all corners of the planet, before the virus mutates out of the envelope where it was designed. There will be surprises along the way. I do agree though that this winter will be the darkest time.

#3 nlabixa on 01.03.21 at 2:55 pm

First, one more time. Stay invested everyone.

#4 Faron on 01.03.21 at 3:01 pm

#94 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 2:15 am

#67 Faron on 01.02.21 at 1:32 am
#59 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 10:04 pm

Speak to the idea, not the man.

Look nonplused, I’m sure you are a fine person. A good father and husband and a stand-up member of your community. I attack you because you embody what, to me, is a pretty loathsome cohort even if you, personally, aren’t loathsome.

I can understand the relatively poor, somewhat to outright racist white men who love Trump and support his antics because they have lost jobs due to global trade/manufacturing policy and have been told that globalization and immigration are the root of their ills. I have step brothers more or less who have these feelings and beliefs and I can see how their lives have been made more difficult by neoliberal policies and I can see why they would be angry and would support a person who claims to represent them even if Trump and his far right policies, in fact, are the opposite of helpful.

But, by all accounts, you are not one of those people. You live in Canada, for one. You appear relatively well-off with a dual income household and are living in the ‘burbs of Calgary. You have lived the benefits of a left leaning and more socialized system even if you would claim that it has harmed you more than helped (hint, it hasn’t harmed you in net). And, to boot, you make statements like this:

But I lean conservative and would never say vote Trudeau or Biden pretty much whoever they were up against

indicating that you will support anyone, no matter how ethically corrupt as long as they aren’t “liberal”.

Anyone. Just think about that for a sec. Anyone.

Obviously, including backing these garbage notions that somehow the US election (that isn’t even material to you) was riddled with fraud (hint, it wasn’t, but it’s politically convenient for a few people to make it sound like it was and they are doing an excellent job in channelling that message to those they want to hear it). You seem to have fallen for what the likes of Ted Cruz (who will do and say anything to further his political career) and Lindsay Graham (same same) have been spouting. This is crap that even Mitch McConnell won’t touch which is a really low ethical bar to go crashing into. That you hold on to these ideas shows that you have very poor discernment and sup at the trough of conspiracy minded garbage while playing it off as “fact” and playing those “facts” as having equal standing to real problems like drug addiction, homelessness, loss of jobs in Alberta with the collapse of oil sector, the real estate stumblings of your home country etc etc. The list of real problems that you could concern yourself with is miles long, yet you have latched onto a non-issue. What a waste.

Furthermore, you hold these notions while being a person in relative power and with some apparent education. Those you support have enacted policies that are extremely harmful to the less well off and yet you defend this idea that wealth inequality isn’t what it seems or isn’t actually a problem that can be solved. Again, your “ideas” aren’t even worth attacking because they are so far off any basis in fact or reality.

So, while you are probably a fine person in person, your ideas are abhorrent. They are not even worthy of “speaking to”. And that you write them here in the accompaniment of a limp tone indicating that your thoughts could be wrong or right and that you aren’t strong enough to argue them with conviction. That’s just gross.

I’ll do my best to stop riding you as of today. My doing so is policing and it isn’t helpful. But, now you know where I stand with your “ideas” in case you ever thought otherwise.

Have a good day.

#5 Russ on 01.03.21 at 3:02 pm

Hi Garth,

It’s all sunshine and unicorns in the Mid-Island area.

The missus and I went out for breakfast and a nice walk in the sun after a bit o’ morning showers. A little bit chilly at 6 degrees, which I call, “today, the temperature is below 10 degrees”.
The green grass is really soggy too.

I’ve been watching the long term forecast in case I need to put the snow tires on the car.
No indication it’s needed before the middle of the month and I don’t mind procrastinating.

I have some REIT room and am looking for recommendations. Please submit.

Cheers, R

#6 Linda on 01.03.21 at 3:15 pm

I was under the impression ‘the military’ had already been tapped for the vaccine effort. Maybe that was only for delivery of same, but presumably they do have qualified staff who could administer the vaccine to the public. I don’t suppose our election obsessed politicians would have the intelligence to order the military to run the show? One can only hope, because if we have to wait post election for this show to get on the road we will still be languishing at home come 2022.

Speaking of the Kenneyidiot, apparently he is upset with the federal government for delivering vaccines earlier than expected. So as per his so called logic, it is their fault the UCP wasn’t able to coordinate efforts to get vaccines into arms at a faster pace. No doubt his MLA’s had better things to do – like vacation in sunny climes even as they piously proclaimed the masses should stay home. Now that is one election I’d be on board to see happen in 2021. Sadly it isn’t slated to occur before 2023.

#7 Don’t Believe The Hype on 01.03.21 at 3:18 pm

Roaring twenties, yes, it happened before. Then came 1929. Ug.
But I do agree with you, Garth: we could see a decade of insane growth.

#8 Jerry on 01.03.21 at 3:18 pm

“ BTW, this is a Year of the Ox. That last one was in 2009, when we eventually burst from the credit crisis funk into a decade-long romp. Keep that in mind. Roaring twenties.” – Not going to happen.

More Like the Dirty 30’s!

#9 Faron on 01.03.21 at 3:20 pm

I can attest, personally, to a major loss in productivity due to WFH distraction. I would vastly prefer to be in the more social, more accountable, and generally more team oriented environment than I would like to be here.

W/re the new exurban dwellers. Once they are asked to return to work and once traffic picks up, the return to the cities will be quickened. Some wont move back. The newly populated small towns are and will see economic growth that will keep some new residents anchored. They will weather some declines in property prices and be the ultimate winners in my view.

I harbor unfounded worries that the virus wont be easily vanquished and that this whole process might be extended longer than anyone wants and longer than some businesses survive. Time to take a dive into the research and see what the latest is on long term pandemic outlooks.

#10 crazed and a little confused on 01.03.21 at 3:20 pm

Hi Garth,

i called it on yesterday post . I said the Proud boys would protest or at least incite violence along those lines probably january 20

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/trump-news-live-congress-overrides-133711776.html

they are early

#11 Tommy on 01.03.21 at 3:21 pm

Was I censored right after writing a comment about not wanting to be censored?

You were deleted for posting a link claiming Covid is the same as the flu. It’s not. Don’t do it again. – Garth

#12 Robert B on 01.03.21 at 3:26 pm

Vaccines and working for a company will be a major issue which many people I know are troubled with…..

What made Canada great is “The Charter of Rights and Freedoms for Canadians… Many people love Canada for this reason.
I suggest if you do not know your rights , the link is below…

https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/rfc-dlc/ccrf-ccdl/rfcp-cdlp.html

You have rights neither to a job nor to infect others. – Garth

#13 Nocebo on 01.03.21 at 3:30 pm

I started thinking if all these 24/7 Fear News Networks are making people anxious and this is worsening the cases of Covid-19 by creating anxiety and symptom concern. Nocebo effect.

What do you guys think? Is news causing anxiety that funnels into worse cases that require more care as a result?

#14 Pandemic my derriere on 01.03.21 at 3:31 pm

DELETED

#15 Coho on 01.03.21 at 3:34 pm

We’ve lost our free society. We’re now told what to do and when to do it. Where and we can go and where and we can’t. Businesses told to abide by protocols that will destroy them. Soon most everyone will be forced to hold out their hand for government relief. And we all know there is no free lunch. Many would argue that we’ve already paid for it by virtue of giving up our freedom. Oh, but that is not payment enough.

In March 2020 we were asked to roll over and we did. Now we’re being asked to bend over and we are. Next they’ll issue knee pads…and they won’t be asking, they’ll be demanding.

Do people really think the DS and ruling elite want things the way they were when they are getting even richer off Covid? Power previously thought unreachable by politicians is now in their hands. And of course governments are just pawns of the ruling elite. Yes, some in power think they are doing the right thing because like all of us to varying degrees, they are affected by manipulating energies we can’t even begin to understand. Hence we don’t know what to believe and some don’t believe in half of what they say. Surely it’s just wishful thinking in the face of the new normal which is unfolding but far from being the final product. Covid may be gone at some point but our overlords will always find justification to prevent free society from returning. Covid today and _________tomorrow. You fill in the blank.

#16 the Jaguar on 01.03.21 at 3:38 pm

@#114 Triplenet on 01.03.21 at 2:30 pm
#88 Jaguar
FYI:
The Shady Rest is on the beach in Qualicum Beach……not Parksville.
You are correct of course, despite being impertinent in correcting me. I find it all one big sprawl when I have been there, and only know I have entered Qualicum Beach when I start to pick up on all the British accents. ==========
Roaring Twenties, huh? The Great Gatsby was published in 1925 and stylishly represents the period. If there is a revival of the period and life truly imitates art we could nominate’ Sail Away’ to play Jay Gatsby since he has been auditioning for the part from the moment he appeared on this blog as a ‘regular’.

BillyBob’s a natural for Charles Lindbergh who piloted the historic nonstop transatlantic flight from New York to Paris in the twenties, though I see him more as a reincarnation of Captain Ross.

Not sure where Fishman fits in, but Swashbuckler films enjoyed the height of their popularity during the twenties.

Of course the biggest star in the world at that time was a german shepherd name Rin-Tin-Tin. Maybe that beautiful creature that was adopted from the Etobicoke animal shelter could play that part, if only Garth would tell us who adopted her…

#17 Tommy on 01.03.21 at 3:41 pm

The link did not say COVID-19 is the same as the flu. You are misunderstanding the article if you think that’s what it was saying. It’s written by a medical doctor who has experience first hand on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic. You are not a medical doctor, Garth. I can’t even find the link now, darn it! But I will find it…

I read it. – Garth

#18 KNOW IT ALL on 01.03.21 at 3:49 pm

I guess I can’t say much.

It’s just a forecast.

#19 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.03.21 at 3:49 pm

We in the West should have the vote a day before the east. So from Ontario to PEI they vote a day after the west. That may equal out the inequity of block voting in Ontario and time zones…..

W.H.O. and other Physicians are saying what I thought. Covid – 19 is going to be an Endemic which means it will not go away. We will have to get vaccinated every year. I vote for Astro Zeneka as they cost $3.00 per person and say they will not be in it for profit. The other vaccines are $50.00 per person. As well as all the other costs of refrigeration, electricity, needles, sanitizers, garbage, recycle, planes, couriers, gas etc. etc.

#20 Howard on 01.03.21 at 3:50 pm

There will be a federal election. Trudeau will win a majority. There will be a leadership contest in 2025. Chrystia will take it. This blog will have a cow.

——————————

What happened to your prediction that Mark Carney would be Finance Minister and then Prime Minister?

Ask him. – Garth

#21 WTF on 01.03.21 at 3:52 pm

#109 Elvis
#79 Gonkster

“The United States Congress or U.S. Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States and consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate.”
—————————————————————-
I stand corrected. Thanks for the clarification. Should have been less verbose and more concise in my condemnation. I apologize.

However,
Election fraud was stated. There wasn’t any. It is easy to make baseless assertions. Perhaps a case of Dunning Kruger effect? Hard to say, Verifiable Proof is usually warranted to counter accusations of partisan drivel, which I’m calling it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/11/13/trump-voter-fraud-claims-investigated-2020-election/6259980002/

BTW: The City and State of NY is waiting patiently for the Grifter and his lovely Family. 2021 May be a more litigious year for The “short fingered vulgarian”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-criminal-case.html

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/08/spy-vs-trump

#22 BlogDog123 on 01.03.21 at 3:55 pm

What’s an anti-vaxxer to do if their employer says: “Prove you are vaccinated before arriving at work.” ???

They run to their quackerypath ‘doctor’ or that Alberta guy who treated his kid’s meningitis with home remedies like a smoothie with garlic, onion and horseradish.

“Pssst, can you create a fake immunization record for me?” I have my unmoveable crazy non-scientific beliefs, but I gotta feed the family…”

#23 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 3:56 pm

The year of the ox, huh?

I knew astrology was a major player in financial forecasts!

#24 Gregg in Victoria on 01.03.21 at 3:56 pm

They are as bitter as the presidential contest was, just as rife with untruths

And the same could be said for the Dems and the 2016 election, no??

#25 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 4:01 pm

By the summer or fall we will finally stop talking about the damn pathogen. -Garth

Summer if Canada approves AstraZeneca. Fall (or later) if Canada drags its feet on its approval.

Per UK Doc Campbell on YouTube, in so many words:

With AstraZeneca a nurse can stuff a few hundred doses in a cooler packed with ice and make his/her rounds that day jabbing a few hundred people.

Tough to do that with cryo Pfizer or deep freeze Moderna.

#26 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:01 pm

#107 MF on 01.03.21 at 12:33 pm
6 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:41 am

I see this story playing out all the time.

When something happens commonly, it’s no longer an outlier.

MF

==================================

Oh please. Define “commonly” in a way that actually has hard numbers attached to it that demonstrate a net loss of talent north. Not some charming story of someone moving to be with their spouse. Anecdotes are worthless, someone once said.

Canada is still a pimple on the US ass, demographically speaking.

#27 Parkville Prankster on 01.03.21 at 4:09 pm

… or as the Alberta MLAs seem to be fond of saying, ‘Everyone must do St. Barts… err, I mean their part’

#28 Ken M. on 01.03.21 at 4:11 pm

Biden with the stimulus, yep!

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:12 pm

@#20 Howard
“There will be a federal election. Trudeau will win a majority.”

++++
I disagree with Garth’s prediction.
There will be an election this year.
However.
There are a lot of angry voters out there.
Trudeau will only “win” another minority.
As the economy spirals down over the next few years….Freeland and other Libs worried about their titles and positions…..will stab Trudeau in the back at a Leadership convention…….
It’s the political way.

#30 Brian Ripley on 01.03.21 at 4:19 pm

My four employment earnings charts are up with the latest data:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Employment Earnings have dropped since their peak in May (CERB)
(PEI peaked in June, and NB in April)

-1.8% in QC
-2.0% in ON
-2.0% in PEI
-2.9% Nationally
-2.9% in BC
-3.0% in NB
-3.1% in NS
-4.2% in NFL
-5.0% in MB
-5.4% in AB
-5.6% in SK

My four interest rates are also up.
The”REAL” 10yr Bond Rate has been negative 2/3 of the time in 2020 and most of the time since 2014-2015 when the TSX Real Estate index broke out above the 2007 highs. Covid 19 crushed that index.

#ZIRP and #NIRP still rules. Cash is trash unless you have a lot of it and employment earnings erosion has not been supporting cash flow or credit worthiness since the CERB highs.

“But this time truly is different. The run-up to the credit crunch in 2021 does not fit the historical boom-bust pattern in many countries. It is not predicated on having experienced an economic expansion or an asset-price bubble. The common threads to the evolving balance-sheet crisis and the credit crunch that will follow are the historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity. It is also a regressive crisis, disproportionally hitting low-income households and smaller firms that have fewer assets to avert insolvency.” Source WorldBank https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/coming-covid-19-credit-crunch

As I noted in a June 20, 2020 post “Household Net Worth”, “The middle 40% of Canadian Households have less than $100,000 of net worth and the bottom 40% have less than $50,000! These people are not going to be reliable buyers of housing as the current FOMO 2.0 rages in the hot metros.”

Balance sheet repair and reprioritizing spending desires are probably going to continue in 2021 as the credit bust unfolds especially at the margins

“TransUnion’s data found that deferrals are not the only method Canadians are using to reduce their debt loads. They are spending less overall, making fewer big-ticket purchases, and using those savings to actively pay down their existing credit balances. They are also limiting their use of new credit products. New account openings were down 41% in the second quarter of 2020, the most recent data available due to a reporting lag. Part of that substantial decrease, Fabian explained, is due to providers’ efforts to mitigate risk by reducing the amount of credit they make. But the rest is the result of Canadians recognizing the potential folly involved with taking on new debt at a time of widespread economic nausea.” Source: Mortgage Broker News
https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/recent-transunion-report-projects-increased-delinquencies-next-year–how-much-will-they-rise-336121.aspx

Less spending = less economic activity.

#31 Carlos on 01.03.21 at 4:21 pm

Hey Garth
Have you been to Squamish? Gorgeous place, with the exception of that silly highway running thru the middle of town. ;)

Honestly, though, I think you’ll see a lot of employers (civil service, anyone sitting a desk) for the next 5 years perhaps be amenable to a mix of WFH and office time, given the investments they’ve likely made in VPNs, Zoom/Slack/Teams software, etc etc etc. Rolling out this vaccine will take a while, unless somehow governments commit to a war-like effort to production and distribution.

@TurnerNation. Time to step away from the computer dude, seriously.,

Yes, Squamish, where a scenic Home Depot is visible from the Wal-Mart parking lot. So unique. – Garth

#32 Silent the people on 01.03.21 at 4:22 pm

Garth, all sounds good but I don’t think Justin “the budget will balance itself” Trudeau will win a majority! He may quit like Mark Carney! Let the games begin….

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.21 at 4:24 pm

The picture is very topical.
Torrential rains hitting the Lower Mainland for the last 2 weeks.
Many homeless street people have dogs.
Dogs don’t judge.
The name of the Rock band “Three Dog Night” was coined by the homeless of New York, meaning how many dogs it takes to keep them warm during a brutally cold night.
When the weather called for 3 dogs, everyone (people and dogs) huddled up.
This way many stray dogs are kept from the pounds.
Man’s best friend, for sure.
Symbioses in action.

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.21 at 4:28 pm

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:12 pm
@#20 Howard
“There will be a federal election. Trudeau will win a majority.”

++++
I disagree with Garth’s prediction.
There will be an election this year.
However.
There are a lot of angry voters out there.
Trudeau will only “win” another minority.
As the economy spirals down over the next few years….Freeland and other Libs worried about their titles and positions…..will stab Trudeau in the back at a Leadership convention…….
It’s the political way.
————-
Nonsense.
Again you’re projecting your feelings on the whole Canadian population.
Trudeau has the ladies and the kids all wrapped up.
Landslide.
Old FARTZ can vote for O’Toole.

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:29 pm

Trumps insanity on tape.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1345815768013926403

Demanding Georgian election officials “find 11,700 votes”

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:37 pm

@#30 Mr Ripley

“But the rest is the result of Canadians recognizing the potential folly involved with taking on new debt at a time of widespread economic nausea.”

++++

Interesting summation.

If I may.
The last line was only missing one thing.

“…..at a time of widespread economic and political nausea.”

#37 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 4:37 pm

Canada VOX POPULI Math Porn:

32M in the Kanuckistan free range herd (15 to ∞ yrs old).

52 weeks in 2021 (hey, there is such a thing as Leap Years, this is isn’t one of them).

To be FINISHED by Dec. 31, 2021, the number of people vaccinated PER WEEK (double for jabs = 2 doses/person):

615,385 @ 100% herd.
461,538 @75% herd (herd immunity?)
307,692 @50% herd.
.
.
.

‘V-Day’, first COVID-19 vaccines administered in Canada = Dec. 14, 2020.

As of Jan. 2, 2021 in Canada (20 days later):

103,105 doses or 51,552 people vax’d. for ONE OUT OF TWO JABS = IN ALMOST 3 WEEKS.

——————————

At the CURRENT rate of vaxing vs. vaxing needed, even for herd immunity, CHANCES of that happening by the end of 2021 are:

SLIM to NIL (and Slim just got on the bus and left town).

[Proviso: above based on current cryo Pfizer or deep freezer Moderna vaxing. If AstraZeneca approved then maybe a SNOWBALLS HOPE IN HADES even with Nurse + Cooler making the rounds].

Why Trudeau and Health Canada, Math Challenged and all, are full of bull dung “By Fall all that want to be vaccinated will be”).

-Sorry Garth

#38 Bill on 01.03.21 at 4:40 pm

#31 Carlos on 01.03.21 at 4:21 pm

I’ve worked all over the Province for 25 years…Before Timmy’s blazed a trail in every town.
Squamish has a nice rock. Powell River is a beautiful place mega rocks and 27 lakes right on the ocean. There’s a world of difference. Thankfully there’s a moat around it slowing the pace of growth.
https://gripped.com/video/watch-climbing-in-eldred-valley/

#39 KLNR on 01.03.21 at 4:44 pm

@
#15 Coho on 01.03.21 at 3:34 pm
We’ve lost our free society. We’re now told what to do and when to do it. Where and we can go and where and we can’t. Businesses told to abide by protocols that will destroy them. Soon most everyone will be forced to hold out their hand for government relief. And we all know there is no free lunch. Many would argue that we’ve already paid for it by virtue of giving up our freedom. Oh, but that is not payment enough.

In March 2020 we were asked to roll over and we did. Now we’re being asked to bend over and we are. Next they’ll issue knee pads…and they won’t be asking, they’ll be demanding.

Do people really think the DS and ruling elite want things the way they were when they are getting even richer off Covid? Power previously thought unreachable by politicians is now in their hands. And of course governments are just pawns of the ruling elite. Yes, some in power think they are doing the right thing because like all of us to varying degrees, they are affected by manipulating energies we can’t even begin to understand. Hence we don’t know what to believe and some don’t believe in half of what they say. Surely it’s just wishful thinking in the face of the new normal which is unfolding but far from being the final product. Covid may be gone at some point but our overlords will always find justification to prevent free society from returning. Covid today and _________tomorrow. You fill in the blank.

LOL

#40 Mr Cynic on 01.03.21 at 4:46 pm

Garth ..you missed one teeny, weeny thing in your crystal ball vision…mutated virus.. will it EVER go away?

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:47 pm

@#34 Ponzies political pandering
“Old FARTZ can vote for O’Toole.”

++++

Uhhhh, sorry Ponzie
Seems your antagonistic argument style has pointed out your dreadful grasp of the Canadian political process. .
Unless O’Toole plans on leaving his safe seat in Ontario and running in Burnaby North….I think I’ll be voting for whatever Con decides to run…..
( Hopefully not another Christian loon like the one that was booted from the Cons two weeks before the last election for her paranoid, homophobic remarks….and she still garnered several thousand votes…..)

Ya dont vote the Leader in….just the Party’s local MP.
Sheesh.
Thought ya knew that.
:)

#42 Penny Henny on 01.03.21 at 4:47 pm

Hopefully the year of the Ox is better than the year of the Hoax.

#43 Prussian Blue on 01.03.21 at 5:11 pm

Hello Garth and team, Happy new year! Thank you for your blog and all the advise.
Garth and audience: Any thoughts about ARK investments and disruptive technologies? is it a worth taking a chance?

#44 Dave on 01.03.21 at 5:12 pm

Trudeau won’t win a majority, he is so inept it is astounding that he’s is still in office. He’s lucky the opposition is so weak- Otool can’t really be taken seriously. What has Trudeau done other than bumble the handling of the pandemic, Canada has higher rates of Covid than many other countries. He’s allowed money laundering through real estate to continue, he’s bringing in another 400, 000 immigrants to appease the business community so that will lower wages and there will be people to sell condos to. This will put more stress and strain on cities and make them even more congested. Of course citizens weren’t consulted, there was no dialogue or debate. Trudeau was stupid enough to buy a pipeline fraught with legal challenges and environmental issues, that no one else wanted. We know that projections are that it won’t operate to capacity if it ever gets built, due to the economics of shipping oil offshore. Yet he was stupid enough to buy it while Kinder Morgan must have been jumping for joy, glad to get a clunker off their hands that no one else wanted. Under Trudeau, not only has our debt gone off the charts, but housing has become unafordable in major Canadian cities. He won’t be getting my vote.

#45 Tom on 01.03.21 at 5:15 pm

Most people are expecting “roaring twenties” and huge returns so we will have a major crash instead

#46 Tron Light on 01.03.21 at 5:16 pm

“Companies with employees who have to work in close proximity to co-workers, customers or others can be required to vaccinate or be fired…”

Firing is the wrong term. Try constructive dismissal, therefore, you would be owed severance. This is because if getting a vaccine was not part of your original employment they cannot change that. If they do, then they have changed the terms of your employment and you do not have to accept it. What it does mean is that, yes, you will lose your job but they will have to pay you off to do it.

Don’t be so sure, cowboy. – Garth

#47 mike from mtl on 01.03.21 at 5:16 pm

#37 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 4:37 pm

Why Trudeau and Health Canada, Math Challenged and all, are full of bull dung “By Fall all that want to be vaccinated will be”).
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not sure if this a media propaganda thing or I am misunderstanding, locally our premier clearly stated the Vaccination programme is to protect those at risk then afterwards the general pop can get it if they wish. It would be an impossible goal to eliminate a virus like this globally via vaccination – that could take decades, if ever. Even then, why? Malaria, TB, Cholera, etc are more of a pressing concern globally.

RE: Those overpriced, crappy sleep-in-the-kitchen AirBnB specials aren’t selling, gee what a surprise. Nobody normal buys those to actually live-in except the specuvestors. Now nothing against apartment living, reasonable sized units will probably continue to be okay. Much of the world lives like that, you’re not entitled the chance to ‘own’ taxable land or to rent from the bank.

Though I do believe it is high time the 19th century style properly laws need a refresh.

#48 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 5:18 pm

Yes, Squamish, where a scenic Home Depot is visible from the Wal-Mart parking lot. So unique. – Garth

THAT was good.

Shhhh…BC are the only ones that think they have mountains and a sea shore in the entire World (and ski slopes).

Poor little Italia, 1/3 the land mass of “Unique & Supernatural BC” has:

-7600 km of coastline, none of it on the Arctic Ocean, all of it on Mare Nostrum.
-407 Blue Flag beaches along that coastline (27 in BC incl. Gibsons Marina shown below vs. Lignano Sabbiadoro about 65 km from where I live)
-290 ski resorts (13 in BC), recall Italia has the Alps and the Apennines
-No Walmarts.
-No Home Depots.
-And the foods not bad either (nor is the climate).

Gibsons Marina, Blue Flag beach lower left:
https://i.imgur.com/KQ8ZSc2.png

Lignano Sabbiadoro, FVG, Italia near where I live (birds eye view of the 7 km of Blue Flag beach & from the Marina looking towards the Alps):
https://i.imgur.com/kVpWWqP.png
https://i.imgur.com/bz3ofCv.png

————————-

Yup, you were correct My Liege. “Provincial” would be an understatement.

#49 Restaurant Pain on 01.03.21 at 5:20 pm

Well, Christmas has passed. No catering parties at the office. No staff Christmas dinners where the premium menu can be selected from. The good wine list. No extra deliveries at the office for lunch. It must have been a brutal season for restaurants and we’re going to see the consequences of it roll out over next few months with closures of many.

In one Globe and Mail article about the pain of restaurants I did see this comment (below) and thought it worth sharing. While it isn’t exactly pro restaurant – I too see all the styrofoam packaging for one meal delivery, or thick single use plastic trays, cutlery, packaging – all for just one easy meal – and I can’t dismiss the sentiment this commenter was feeling when he wrote this:

————-

Restaurants are a waste of money. They are a non-productive and frivolous part of a degenerate society. Eat a sandwich; stop destroying the earth for your lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.

#50 Rainman on 01.03.21 at 5:26 pm

Garth – you do come across envious of Squamish. It is pretty awesome.

Been there often. Try commuting anywhere. – Garth

#51 millmech on 01.03.21 at 5:26 pm

I would like for you to clarify that if people do get covid and its long lasting debilitating illness from someone who was vaccinated, the employer would now have to be responsible for life long treatment, wage loss, pain and suffering, etc. After all they are ensuring that their workforce is safe, so they will also be responsible if the virus mutates and we get ill/die because of their “negligence”
I would believe that if you catch the covid would you not have the right to demand a covid test immediately from all your co workers, like a drug/alcohol test after an accident. Just think that every time someone gets sick you have to disclose your medical records or go in for immediate testing to reduce corporate/personal liability.
Just think if someone does not want to work anymore can now claim illness/injury liability against the company, as long as they can prove that they got covid from work or someone at work could have spread it.
Covid can act like a soft tissue injury, so every back injury, sore muscle ,brain fog, organs being compromised and a whole host of yet to be discovered symptoms could now be a covid injury, watch insurance rates go through the roof.
I see lots of “soft tissue” injuries occur around our yearly slowdown/layoff, now you have them that can pay out for life.
Lawyers are going to love it!

Delusion hits a new apex. Congratulations. – Garth

#52 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 5:31 pm

By the way, I’m enjoying the to and fro debates between:

Overlord vs. WFH’ers

Bring it on I say. Entertainment + .

Though I must say Overlord (a.k.a., My Liege) has brought out the LEGAL BIG GUNS in his favor (e.g., HR Lawyer a few Blogs ago that would frighten any kid let an adult and today’s BIG SMOKE Lawyer Howard Levitt).

Still, WFH’ers let ‘er rip on Overlord though I believe yours is a losing cause and yes, HOPE is the last to die.

#53 "NUTS!" on 01.03.21 at 5:33 pm

#46 Tron Light. “If they do, then they have changed the terms of your employment and you do not have to accept it”

I will humbly disagree with your comment. Almost every company has policies regarding safety of the staff and impact to business. If you are a threat to infect others, you are in beach of company policies. I agree with Garth, employees are in for a huge surprise.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 5:41 pm

@#44 Dave
” He won’t be getting my vote.”

++++
Your concerns about Trudeau and the Liberals are all valid…unfortunately….as much as I hate to admit it….Ponzie may be right.

If the latest polls are correct ( but polls have been notoriously inaccurate on election day for the past few elections)

Trudeau ….like the Titanic….will stay on as PM because in the election….. it will be the women and children’s life votes that will put him first….

The stench of Trudeau’s endless scandals played over and over on tv during the election campaign guaranteeing another minority govt.
I still predict Trudeau will win another minority but his popularity will spiral down.

O’Toole may be boring but, so far, he’s relatively scandal free.
After the next Minority “win”…..stay tuned.
Freeland will determine the time is right to pull out the knives and become the second female PM in Canada by acclimation.
Trudeau will retire with a full PM’s pension and spend his many latter years lecturing shirtless, having his “story” ghostwritten by people that can form sentences, and dabbling in his vineyards in the south of France with Morneau or the Agha Khan

#55 S.Bby on 01.03.21 at 5:43 pm

No company can fire an employee for not being vaccinated against Covid or any other disease for that matter. They could ask for a negative Covid test though, just as some airlines are now asking passengers before flying.

The Covid vaccines don’t keep a person from getting sick or being contagious but the person just gets less sick and hopefully stays out of the hospital.

#56 Bill on 01.03.21 at 5:57 pm

#49 Restaurant Pain

I agree, mega plastic waist….Where are all of the green nuts? Its all petroleum products one time use.
Skip the dishes is a joke to us. Major inefficiencies here.
Delivering a piece of chicken and a couple leaves of lettuce!

I use to own a restaurant…major overhead now a days.
The worst business in my view and I’ve had a few.
Food trucks make sense but with minimal packaging..

#57 Tron Light on 01.03.21 at 5:58 pm

“Don’t be so sure, cowboy. – Garth”

Well, I have a lawyer that would disagree with yours. Not to mention it may be against the Ontario Human Rights code to terminate. Part of the problem is that the vaccine (or any vaccine) can cause issues for people with pre-existing health conditions (which we have seen already with people with severe allergies).

There’s a lot more to it than just saying “oh, you’ll be fired if you don’t get it.”

I’m pretty sure that Covid is worse than any vax response. Just get it and stop wasting everyone’s time. – Garth

#58 Bill on 01.03.21 at 6:04 pm

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 4:29 pm
Trumps insanity on tape.
————
Crowdy who cares…
Hilary lost her mind when she lost and blamed everyone that supported her and said it was their fault!!?
Their all the same and Trump isn’t even that bad. Hilary told Biden that if he loses do NOT concede….what’s the difference?
Now you have someone in power that will tell you what you want to here but will do what ever they want.
Lets see how that goes…

#59 Irish Stew on 01.03.21 at 6:04 pm

Restaurants are a waste of money. They are a non-productive and frivolous part of a degenerate society. Eat a sandwich; stop destroying the earth for your lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.
_________________________________________

You sound fun to be around……

#60 MF on 01.03.21 at 6:10 pm

The investing and market predictions are spot on, like usual!

However, and it’s hard to say this, but the rest of the predictions are completely wrong though.

MF

#61 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 6:12 pm

Sail Away – hope story (The Remarkable Power of Hope) and thank you for that.

THAT was good.

SO true. Thoughts create. Hope a big part of that.

#62 Mark on 01.03.21 at 6:12 pm

Well I guess you’re talking to different lawyers and everybody else is because a lot of other lawyers are saying can’t be terminated because of not getting vaccinated.
Will be decided in the courts.

Just get the shot. Sheesh. So much cowardice and selfishness. – Garth

#63 Handsome Ned on 01.03.21 at 6:14 pm

Lived in Squamish for a year in the seventies when it was a little logging town. You took your life in your hands driving to vancouver and drinking in the Chieftan hotel. It was gloomy and depressing in the winter with all the rain and early darkness due to the proximity of the mountains. However the Steelhead and salmon fishing was incredible. Now the steelhead are all but extinct and the salmon a remnant. Lots of Grizzlies in the valley and opportunities for mtn. biking, hiking and close to Whistler.The highway is much improved but still an hour drive to Van. Too bad it is now infested with Vancouverites. I much prefer the deplorables from the old days; the guys that wear their Standfields shirts to church.

#64 WDL on 01.03.21 at 6:18 pm

“Vaccines and working for a company will be a major issue which many people I know are troubled with…..

“What made Canada great is “The Charter of Rights and Freedoms for Canadians… Many people love Canada for this reason.
I suggest if you do not know your rights , the link is below…

https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/rfc-dlc/ccrf-ccdl/rfcp-cdlp.html

You have rights neither to a job nor to infect others. – Garth”

I’ll only be vaxed if they threaten to fire me which….I think is going to be pretty difficult. My wife, who works from home (before COVID) and my children and grandchildren will NOT be vaxed. The only think that might change our mind is if the government threatens to take our children away for not doing so. This is completely plausible in this Totalitarian State. Now Garth, do you really think the government is going to hand us back our rights after taking them away. Come on, Man!

Why are you abrogating your social responsibility to be vaccinated? Are you special? – Garth

#65 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 6:21 pm

#47 mike from mtl

True but vaxing also done to get the much fabled “herd immunity”.

You will not get that from vaxing those at risk then afterwards the general pop can get it if they wish.

Virus, Infection, Epi etc. people are saying you need to vax about 75% of the population, on average, to get herd immunity and that was done in the past with prior epidemics. No one knows yet what that number will be for Covid 19 – they are using history as a guide. Could be lower than 75%, could be higher.

For example Google Search this text:

herd immunity percentage

You will not get herd immunity if you believe and follow the admonition of your Premier. I think he is trying to cajole a bit at a time people to get vax’d. I expect he will come out more forcibly as more vaccine is delivered to La Belle Province.

By the way, I like your Premier. He has that personal touch in a matter of fact way.

#66 Linda on 01.03.21 at 6:26 pm

Was wondering about housing affordability. During the crazy interest days back in the 80’s when mortgages were being offered at up to 22% interest, the actual price of housing was relatively reasonable but the mortgage rates were not. So are these days of insane housing prices with the lowest mortgage rates ever equal to the barrier to home ownership that those ultra high mortgage rates provided? Be interesting to know if anyone has ever done a comparison of actual cost then vs. now, $ adjusted for inflation of course.

#67 Millennial Realist on 01.03.21 at 6:31 pm

Howard Levitt? SERIOUSLY!?

Garth, are you spending all your lockdown days listening to right-wing talk radio where often the “guests” are actually advertisers and some programs are actually paid advertisements where the CRTC does not even require disclosure of that? What a wasteland of misinformation!

Levitt is the most obviously biased, right-wing, pro-employer and anti-employee legal voice in the media in Canada today.

Of course he would spout such nonsense.

But he is, quite simply, wrong. It’s not nearly so simple.

#68 bdwy sktrn on 01.03.21 at 6:32 pm

Gibsons Marina, Blue Flag beach lower left:
https://i.imgur.com/KQ8ZSc2.png
————————
???

beach? i go by that spot daily in the summer, have been for 20 years. i, nor anyone else in the area has ever called that spot a ‘beach’.

my private dock is almost in that pic tho. and best of all no Italians!

#69 the Jaguar on 01.03.21 at 6:37 pm

I haven’t mentioned his name since early November.

But others continue to do so, almost wistfully at times. Kind of like in a Richard Nixon ‘won’t have me to kick around anymore’ like fashion, except it resembles something more like “who are we going to blame for every catastrophe now?” kind of way. Enough said.

He’s been uncharacteristically quiet. It’s sign. Something’s up. Fecal matter is about to hit the osculating rotator is my guess. Right before Wednesday, which is already heating up.

Advice from your friendly neighbourhood Jaguar:
Turn off your ticker tape for the next couple of days. Don’t turn on the radio or television either. Go for a long nature walk or head up to the cabin where your cell phone can’t pick up any internet signals.

This will be one for the ages and will set off feelings of deep seated mistrust in every institution we have put our faith in. Oh boy.

#70 Piet on 01.03.21 at 6:39 pm

#49 Restaurant Pain on 01.03.21 at 5:20 pm
“Restaurants are a waste of money.”

Yes, and tipping culture is annoying.

What we need in this country is good street food that is reasonably priced, such as is widely available all over southeast Asia. Several years spent in that part of the world have had the effect of taking away any appetite I might once have had for North American restaurant food.

#71 Bert on 01.03.21 at 6:40 pm

You keep referring to WFH like it’s a bad thing. Everything I read says the opposite. The most competitive employers are encouraging it. It reduces costs significantly. I don’t get your angle.

#72 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 6:43 pm

“There will be a federal election. Trudeau will win a majority. There will be a leadership contest in 2025. Chrystia will take it. This blog will have a cow.”

Not that I am any fan of Trudeau, but why would they have a leadership contest if he’d just won a majority? Not that it would make much difference, but I don’t see why they would switch horses. Other than that I agree with the prediction.

“Meanwhile his petulant refusal to concede and baseless claims of election fraud have raised $200 million in donations – sad little gifts from struggling common folk to an egocentric billionaire for his personal use. What a stunning outcome.”

I am not sure Trump can use the money for anything other than its’ intended use. It is probably structured so that what isn’t used for “baseless claims of election fraud” goes to the Republican party for future campaigns. If I am right about that, it turns out to be a nice parting gift for the party.

I am hopeful Trump will concede on Jan. 7th. He’s exploited all his options and the clock has run out. But still, the fact that common people sent him $200 million to investigate the election I think means he had little choice without gravely disappointing his base supporters. And like him or hate him, one thing he has proven himself to be adapt at is raising funds from small donations.

Will the republicans abandon Trump if they lose the Georgia runoffs? I don’t know. Obviously they will have to come up with a new front man or woman, but who? Can they find someone else who can inspire so many people to attend rallies and make donations? I mean once everybody calms down the history books will record that he was one of the best there ever was at doing that, even if in every other way it was a failed presidency.

And that brings me to my next point, the political divide. The “Never Trumpers” who are so glad that Trump is on the way out fail to consider that Trump got the second most votes of any presidential candidate in history second only to Biden. More than Obama. More than Clinton (both of them). More than the first time he ran. The US remains deeply divided politically. That probably isn’t going to change.

The political divide you see in the US also exists in Canada and is probably just as strong here. In the same way that in the US it is basically New York and the west coast (California, Oregon, Washington) against the rest of the US (fly over country), here it is Ontario and Vancouver against the rest of the country. (I say Vancouver instead of BC because BC itself is very politically divided. Although one should include Victoria with Vancouver.)

I don’t think Biden or Trudeau (or Chrystia) are any more capable of closing this divide than Trump was. Anyone who thinks that now that we will soon see the tail end of Trump thinks that politics will become less conflicted will be sorely disappointed, IMHO.

If I were Trump, I would be looking forward to spending my remaining years golfing at Mar-a-Lago surrounded by my security detail and leaving it to “President Elect” Harris to deal with the coming $hit-storm.

(I threw that in there for you, Penny. Not only has Biden referred to her that way twice, but he also does things like call reporters “one horse ponies”. I will be amazed if he lasts 4 years. He won’t last 8.)

#73 Bert on 01.03.21 at 6:46 pm

As far as REITs and the TSX go, many smart fund managers (ie ARK invest) are saying the exact opposite. Innovation is deflationary. Heavy govt and public debt is deflationary. The FED stimulus is not necessary inflationary. Commercial real estate and commodities could face significant headwinds. Everyone on Wall Street seems to be forecasting inflation. I just don’t see it.

#74 Damifino on 01.03.21 at 6:46 pm

#49 Restaurant Pain

…stop destroying the earth for your lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.
—————————–

Funny! Who knew the earth was so easy to destroy?

#75 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 6:47 pm

#30 Brian Ripley

Some very good information.

“So, what you’re saying is” that 20% of the people in Canada will drive the RE economy and economic growth and investment [based on Net Worth].

As lockdowns persist, cashflow a problem as well (e.g., GDP sectors like Travel, Hospitality).

According to Garth, Trudeau et al will try and nuke that 20% with taxes.

Not looking good for 2021.

But never discount the Little Economy that Could (and Does). It keeps chugging away creating growth and opportunity despite what the Nouriel Roubini’s of the World say.

#76 Pretty much ... on 01.03.21 at 6:49 pm

#49 Restaurant Pain on 01.03.21 at 5:20 pm
Restaurants are a waste of money. They are a non-productive and frivolous part of a degenerate society. Eat a sandwich; stop destroying the earth for your lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.
——————————————————–
covered the whole of the British Isles on Cornish Pasties and beer. Hoping to do it again too …

#77 ItsAllMagicToMe on 01.03.21 at 6:56 pm

I used to enjoy walking through the crowded PATH and finding spots to have lunch. Now I don’t ever want to go back.

#78 Rural Rick on 01.03.21 at 7:00 pm

Oh Garth, I don’t know how you do it. The comments section used to be a delightful read full of insight on commerce,investment and local insight from so many different blog dogs. I used to really enjoy it. Seems now to be filled with beings that are afraid of everything and want to spout the latest crackpot theory. Critical thinking seems to have evaporated along with any idea of how to research anything. I think H.G.Wells was on to something with the Morlocks and Eloi.
This could be the evolutionary split.
Thanks for your educational efforts I have certainly profited from your advice. Bless you, oh Great Bearded One.

#79 Elon Fanboy on 01.03.21 at 7:03 pm

Why is the gov not vaccinating 24/7?

Or are they waiting for a real emergency?

#80 Pete on 01.03.21 at 7:11 pm

The economy will not roar in 2021. When BOC stops keeping the masses afloat, the bankruptcies will begin. It’s not going to be pretty.

I do agree that a balanced portfolio is the way to go though.

#81 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:12 pm

#4 Faron on 01.03.21 at 3:01 pm
#94 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 2:15 am

#67 Faron on 01.02.21 at 1:32 am
#59 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 10:04 pm

Speak to the idea, not the man.

Look nonplused, I’m sure you are a fine person. A good father and husband and a stand-up member of your community. I attack you because you embody what, to me, is a pretty loathsome cohort even if you, personally, aren’t loathsome.

—————————–

Well, I am not sure whether I should be flattered that I got a 662 word analysis of my personality or I should invest in some additional security equipment.

So let’s do a word review of your “analysis” of me. Sometimes just highlighting the key words is enlightening.

embody loathsome cohort relatively poor outright racist white men antics opposite of helpful ethically corrupt garbage notions conspiracy minded garbage What a waste extremely harmful aren’t even worth attacking so far off any basis in fact or reality your ideas are abhorrent just gross

and,

Have a good day.

—————————-

I am not sure at this point you aren’t a bot based on this website:

https://www.pakin.org/complaint?title=Prof.&firstname=Faron&middlename=T&lastname=Jerk&suffix=&gender=m&shorttype=f&paragraphs=3

Anyway for fun I put you in:

https://www.pakin.org/complaint?title=Prof.&firstname=Faron&middlename=T&lastname=Jerk&suffix=&gender=m&shorttype=f&paragraphs=3

In any case I suggest you take your meds. It seems you have anger management problems that even ideas on a comment section can set off.

#82 Stone on 01.03.21 at 7:16 pm

#71 Elon Fanboy on 01.03.21 at 7:03 pm
Why is the gov not vaccinating 24/7?

Or are they waiting for a real emergency?

———

That is a good question. I’ll gladly go get it during non peak hours.

#83 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:18 pm

Oops put the filled out form twice, the start page is here:

https://www.pakin.org/complaint

#84 DON on 01.03.21 at 7:25 pm

Will another version of the roaring 20s happen?

What were the conditions then? Pent up demand from a world war, then a virus etc. Did they have peak debt and peak house prices? We have printing presses. They had real pent up demand…ours is being forced. As for technology saturation…how many zoom, Ms teams etc do we actually need. What else is booming? How is mainstreet doing? Are they scared and sitting on covid
cash or did they throw caution to the wind and spend big at Christmas. Did we already experience the hang over from 2020 or is that yet to come? Stay diversified.

Trudeau still had some spending earmarked and will most likely be doled out prior to calling an election. That will seal the deal as the electorate has a short memory and the majority are ok with high levels of debt. Barring any further scandals the Lib will get a majorty. The CRA will be held back until after the election.

@Faron

“Indicating that you will support anyone, no matter how ethically corrupt as long as they aren’t “liberal”.

Anyone. Just think about that for a sec. Anyone.”

Disheartening isn’t it? Our democracy deserves more than what appears to be a choice between political parties that are not exactly operated in a democratic manner or are out right corrupt. Our democracy deserves better this current cluster fxck.
I vote for the greater good and sound public policy…not for a colour or nice smile.

#85 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 7:26 pm

#66 bdwy sktrn

Gibsons Beach. No Italians.

Scenic Boundary Road with all its piazzas, gelaterie (fake ones), millennia old cobblestone pedestrian friendly no car traffic streets, scenic view of the Port Mann Power Plant from its Southern slopes, Northern Gateway to East Hastings Street and all the nighttime “Fauna” it has to offer, oh and Bosa Foods the only redeeming feature (where they actually sell real food except not Canadian, excludes Québec)…

Lucky you incl. your Marina alternative. Seppuku a better alternative.

No wonder no Italians. Why I left.

“Provincial” the REAL epidemic in BC, esp. YVR.

#86 CJohnC on 01.03.21 at 7:32 pm

#72 Nonplussed: “I am not sure Trump can use the money for anything other than its’ intended use”

Better google that one. Millions are going to his family by the fund paying it a “pac” that pays it to “company “x” that pays it for consulting fees at company”y” etc etc. the consultants are all family. Plus the offices are in the basement of Trump plaza @$3800/Mo rent. Trump is the ultimate grifter.

This is not a well kept secret

#87 Keen Reader on 01.03.21 at 7:37 pm

With Powell and Yellen waltzing to the sound of the money-printing, no surprise that “several smart people reckon US stocks will gain 20% in 2021”. Still, other big names offer that QE can only go so far until the bond market has had enough. They expect another big market drop soon and strongly advise caution. With P/E ratios at ATHs, being “fully invested” seems very risky; why is it different this time?

Actually it’s the same this time. Stay invested. – Garth

#88 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:38 pm

#76 Pretty much … on 01.03.21 at 6:49 pm
#49 Restaurant Pain on 01.03.21 at 5:20 pm
Restaurants are a waste of money. They are a non-productive and frivolous part of a degenerate society. Eat a sandwich; stop destroying the earth for your lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.

——————————–

There was a time where I was getting paid $300/hour working 12 hour days (so what is that, $3600/day? Ya there about.) to work on certain things that needed to be done that only I and a few others could do. Seems to me that the folks that employed me for that engagement would rather me not take time off to make my own lunch. Sometimes they brought it in and paid for it.

Don’t ever call a restaurant a “waste of money”. High end restaurants may be a luxury that most people only enjoy on their birthday, but Subway and McDonald’s is worth every penny. And it provides entry level jobs.

My hopefully famous by now venture to the US the company served catered lunch buffet style every day, because they didn’t want us leaving our desks. Of course the tax man eventually killed that because it was a “taxable benefit”. The service remained, but somehow they came up with a way of weighing the food to assess taxes. Everybody went to Subway, resulting in a loss of productivity because it was not close.

Nobody wastes their own money. Only governments do that.

#89 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:44 pm

#86 CJohnC on 01.03.21 at 7:32 pm
#72 Nonplussed: “I am not sure Trump can use the money for anything other than its’ intended use”

Better google that one. Millions are going to his family by the fund paying it a “pac” that pays it to “company “x” that pays it for consulting fees at company”y” etc etc. the consultants are all family. Plus the offices are in the basement of Trump plaza @$3800/Mo rent. Trump is the ultimate grifter.

This is not a well kept secret

————————————–

Could be so. “We”? Bombardier? SC Lavalin?

“Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you.”

#90 Faron on 01.03.21 at 7:45 pm

#31 Carlos on 01.03.21 at 4:21 pm

Hey Garth
Have you been to Squamish? Gorgeous place, with the exception of that silly highway running thru the middle of town. ;)

Yes, Squamish, where a scenic Home Depot is visible from the Wal-Mart parking lot. So unique. – Garth

Great place to get your car/garage/home broken into. Thieves transiting the sea to sky seem to swing in there to top up after raiding cars at Whistler. Great town if you like to Mtn Bike, Ski, trail anything or climb. Especially climb.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.21 at 7:47 pm

Why are cons such whiners?
The Alberta politician sounds like a petulant child.
Oh, we always spend X-mas in Hawaii.
The Premier needs a spine implant.

#92 TurnerNation on 01.03.21 at 7:47 pm

A virtual Berlin Wall went up down under. Was the purpose Your Health Comrade, or a test of Chaos? Yep the #s on the telescreen all did that.

(I noted that the island of Iceland appeared to be used an isolated, test-bed for the 2008 financial crash. Their banks fell first in that global financial attack on our Way of Life.)
Australia also fits a bill for what may come our way.

Do you get the feeling this exercise was more about inciting panic, and control?:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/arbitrary-unreasonable-closing-the-state-border-without-a-plan-20210103-p56rfw.html
January 3, 2021 — 7.45pm
The deadline to cross the border was arbitrary, unreasonably and pointlessly tight, and it set in motion an indisputably dangerous course of events. But compounding the chaos of 60,000 permitted persons trying to return en masse, were the DHHS’s confusing, inconsistent and illogical quarantine directives.
Put bluntly, when caravans and cars, trailers, trucks and buses are jammed bumper to bumper for kilometres on remote highways, and people are stuck inside with no relief stations for a toilet break, diminishing water supplies and screaming children or frail parents, that smacks of organisational chaos.

That bizarre directive in effect set up two arbitrarily distinct groups of people. Those who got across the border swiftly did not need to quarantine once they returned a negative COVID-19 result. Those who could not reach the border by midnight New Year’s Eve would have to go into mandatory quarantine regardless of their COVID-19 test result and notwithstanding they might never have been near greater Sydney or the central coast.

#93 I’m stupid on 01.03.21 at 7:56 pm

I read all the comments regarding the covid vaccine. I’m sure that there will be a lot of people who will not get vaccinated. I’m positive that if a covid passport were developed that some would get a counterfeit one to give their boss. I’m sure some will lie about getting vaccinated.

Just remember this… if you’re obligated to be vaccinated by your employer and (has the right to request that of you), if you circumvent the rules and don’t get the vac you would open yourself up to a shit load of liability. If you cause a death by your negligence it would probably be prosecuted.

What makes my blood boil is when people in the kill zone (over 60) say they’re not going to get the shot. Really you’re 75 and don’t want it? I’m 40 and I’ll get it, if I get covid I’ll be fine but to protect older people I’ll take the leap of faith. Maybe we should deny medical treatment to those that get covid because they refuse the shot.

What kills me about conspiracy theorist is how stupid they really are. If the Vaccine is not safe and the doctors, scientists, politicians, and pharmaceutical companies know about it then what you’re saying is that they’re all out trying to kill us. I find it hard to believe that thousands of people who made it their life mission to do no harm, got together to orchestrate mass murder.

#94 yvr_lurker on 01.03.21 at 8:03 pm

Yes, Squamish, where a scenic Home Depot is visible from the Wal-Mart parking lot. So unique. – Garth
————-

Spoken by someone who does not own a pair of hiking shoes to explore the vast opportunities for long scenic hikes in the backcountry. I love the place, and for my insular ways the fewer people who are willing to undertake a serious hike, the better. Sky Pilot provides great vistas on a clear day, but is quite a slog. I hope that they never rebuild that silly gondala, which is the real eye sore.

The people who live there could care less that there is an ugly walmart just off the highway.

#95 I’m stupid on 01.03.21 at 8:03 pm

89 Nonplused

I laughed out loud at that one.

#96 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 8:08 pm

#81 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:12 pm

NP, in his short time here, our good friend Faron has shown that he hates the following with all-consuming passion:

You
Me
Opposing or dissenting opinion
Rational, adult discussion
Wealth and wealthy people
Capitalism
Machines, particularly quads
People who drive quads
People who drive trucks
People who dislike junkies
Friendly people who offer him a ride out of remote areas
Successful investors
The colour tactical black
Staying on topic
Venezuelans
Engineers
Logic
Masculinity
Donald Trump
Light-heartedness
Republicans, conservatives
White men

Mentioning any of the above subjects is liable to trigger an insane barrage of personal attacks.

#97 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.03.21 at 8:09 pm

DELETED. Anti-vax.

#98 milmech on 01.03.21 at 8:10 pm

Nope, not delusional, have been involved in weekly meetings with senior management and ownership and they are not going to be setting this protocol up unless they have legislative protections from legal liabilities.

#99 Dog Breath on 01.03.21 at 8:23 pm

I’m really looking forward to “The Great Reset” or as little Justin likes to say “build it back better”. I can’t wait to see what our global masters have in store for us:
You will own nothing. You will have no privacy. You will eat artificial food (no meat). You will be completely happy. Right!!

#100 David on 01.03.21 at 8:32 pm

Loveing your optimism, but that recent covid mutation labelled B117 seems like a game changer. Have you seen the stats for UK in December? Madness. Only matter of time before we get hammered. There is a light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel is getting longer and darker.

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.21 at 8:36 pm

#26 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:01 pm
#107 MF on 01.03.21 at 12:33 pm
6 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:41 am

I see this story playing out all the time.

When something happens commonly, it’s no longer an outlier.

MF

==================================

Oh please. Define “commonly” in a way that actually has hard numbers attached to it that demonstrate a net loss of talent north. Not some charming story of someone moving to be with their spouse. Anecdotes are worthless, someone once said.

Canada is still a pimple on the US ass, demographically speaking.
————
I agree anecdotes are worthless.
CEF is a good case in point.
But outliers quite often become mainstream.
They call them disruptors now.
That’s how society moves forward.
Whether that is good or bad, is up to interpretation.

#102 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.03.21 at 8:41 pm

How was that antivax?

I was simply sharing the results of my unscientific survey!

#103 KLNR on 01.03.21 at 8:45 pm

@#93 I’m stupid on 01.03.21 at 7:56 pm

What kills me about conspiracy theorist is how stupid they really are. If the Vaccine is not safe and the doctors, scientists, politicians, and pharmaceutical companies know about it then what you’re saying is that they’re all out trying to kill us. I find it hard to believe that thousands of people who made it their life mission to do no harm, got together to orchestrate mass murder

And bill gates is behind it all lol.

#104 Bill on 01.03.21 at 9:01 pm

W5 just did a good piece on the pandemic.
There’s way more question than answers….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHmD74ekhlE

Restaurants are fine! got a little crazy here….Jesus.
I love eating out in a clean trustworthy place. Food has to be marked up 200% so as food cost rise they rise even fast at the Raunts. Leaving average working stiff behind in affordability.
Its a great treat but many live beyond their means and wonder why they can’t retire.
All my travel and dinning is a biz expense…. Some booze too. :-)

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 9:11 pm

@#91 Ponzie Pout
“Why are cons such whiners?”

++++

You’re a Conservative?
I would have pegged you as a politically correct, socialist leaning, bleeding heart Lib.

#106 Wanda on 01.03.21 at 9:18 pm

I don’t want to be disrespectful but I find it hard to believe Trudeau would achieve a majority government. WE scandal, Trudeau gives out billions to other countries, the vaccine roll out will likely show we are late to the plate, yet the amount of vaccine Trudeau bought, we could be vaccinated 9 times. He will give the rest away, yet not all Canadians have clean drinking water. Our veterans ask too much, it’s Christmas holidays and a police officer died, not a word from Trudeau! Where is he? Is he out of the country as well… And I’m sorry, I am just getting started. Do Canadians have that shirt of a memory?

#107 westcdn on 01.03.21 at 9:25 pm

I was bored the other day so I googled our guest poster’s moniker -TINSTAAFL if i remember correctly. I thought he/she was quite clever. “There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch”

I have not seen any recent posts. Hope just a moniker change happened because that engineer (my guess) was an ace and i have blind spots.

#108 Westcoaster on 01.03.21 at 9:36 pm

Squamish,Started grade school there.
Went there a few years back, wow did it grow.

#109 IHCTD9 on 01.03.21 at 9:38 pm

#81 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:12 pm

In any case I suggest you take your meds. It seems you have anger management problems that even ideas on a comment section can set off.
— – —- –

Faron tries hard, but the anger still seeps through.

Faron, I suggest some stoic philosophy, start with Epictetus and explore from there. Here is one to get you off and running:

“Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”

― Epictetus

#110 Garth's Son Drake on 01.03.21 at 10:04 pm

Feels like the pretend and extend is coming to an end this year.

#111 Bdwy on 01.03.21 at 10:11 pm

94 yvr_lurker on 01.03.21 at 8:03 pm

. I hope that they never rebuild that silly gondala, which is the real eye sore.

…….
If i recall you are an eng prof. So you have the mechanical know how, the mountain experience, likely access to any tools thur an eng dept., and a hatred for that gondola…hmmm maybe squamish rcmp need your number! Haha.

Our wise overlord did miss the mark on that one though. Squamish is truly one of a kind. I dont think having a home depot has anything to do with it. Venice has a McDonald’s.

Maybe someday we get lucky and faron goes on a long one way hike past garibaldi and out of cell service, forever.

#112 Doug t on 01.03.21 at 10:20 pm

Covid
Trump
China
Brexit
Wealth gap
Massive debt
Hunger on a massive scale worldwide
Globalism vs Nationalism
Climate change (not the “man made”)
AI
Jeff bezos and ilk

2021 meh we shall see

#113 kommykim on 01.03.21 at 10:21 pm

RE: #46 Tron Light on 01.03.21 at 5:16 pm
Firing is the wrong term. Try constructive dismissal, therefore, you would be owed severance.

=======================================

Unless you are unionized, and have something else written in your contract, all you’ll get for severance is two weeks pay in lieu of notice.

#114 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.21 at 10:26 pm

#106 Wanda on 01.03.21 at 9:18 pm
I don’t want to be disrespectful but I find it hard to believe Trudeau would achieve a majority government. WE scandal, Trudeau gives out billions to other countries, the vaccine roll out will likely show we are late to the plate, yet the amount of vaccine Trudeau bought, we could be vaccinated 9 times. He will give the rest away, yet not all Canadians have clean drinking water. Our veterans ask too much, it’s Christmas holidays and a police officer died, not a word from Trudeau! Where is he? Is he out of the country as well… And I’m sorry, I am just getting started. Do Canadians have that shirt of a memory?
……………………………..

All solid and valid points and there are many more that you have not mentioned. But i think none of it will matter. People will vote for the free stuff so I think he will get at least a minority govt. again supported by the NDP or an outright majority. Our “democracy” carries the seeds of its own destruction, and we will probably vote ourselves into bankruptcy and oblivion. For the free stuff.

#115 N on 01.03.21 at 10:31 pm

Food banks across the country are straining to meet rising demand during the pandemic, even in some of the country’s wealthier regions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55307722

#116 Seeker on 01.03.21 at 10:42 pm

WFH is not just for those under 35 that benefit. Myself and many of my colleagues who are in their 50’s love the work/life balance. It is the best thing that ever happened. WFH provides more sleep time, more time to prepare healthy meals, more time for exercise, a better view, I worked in a cubicle before and now I see daylight, cuts down on driving costs, saves the environment etc. I know none of us want it to end, but do foresee a possible WFH 2 to 3 days a week. Some of us were doing this option before the pandemic. I think it is called a progessive workplace, keeps employees happy, production goes up in our case. I think its great to have options, and if work can be done from home why not? I have met more people online working from home than I ever did working in the cubicles, and have had more creative opportunties to work in various areas as needed during this pandemic work, working in healthcare.

#117 Doug in London on 01.03.21 at 10:53 pm

baseless claims of election fraud have raised $200 million in donations – sad little gifts from struggling common folk to an egocentric billionaire for his personal use. What a stunning outcome.
———————————————————–
There’s a sucker born every minute.

#118 Father’s Daughter on 01.03.21 at 10:58 pm

I seriously wonder how Trudeau is going to get a majority government. It’s just one major fail after the next. Bill, WE, CERB, $$$$$ for all with the virus still out of control. I am in a Liberal in theory but this gong show has to end.
Now we hear we’ve been funding quarantine for vacationers. Wow.
On the bright side, husband got the vaccine last week, so that is one glimmer of hope and level of protection from his patients, who will surely be disproportionately those who just didn’t listen. And the unfortunate casualties of course.

#119 Dingo on 01.03.21 at 11:02 pm

Sail Away, you forgot Bezos

*********
#96 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 8:08 pm
#81 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:12 pm

NP, in his short time here, our good friend Faron has shown that he hates the following with all-consuming passion:

#120 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 11:05 pm

#79 Elon Fanboy on 01.03.21 at 7:03 pm
Why is the gov not vaccinating 24/7?

Or are they waiting for a real emergency?

—————————-

Look, folks, it takes time to roll something this big out. Look at the roads. They are still building them 100 years later.

I think it is within the realm of reasonable conversation to question whether they are doing all they can or could be doing more, but as much as I hate Trudeau for other reasons I think he’s doing all that can be done +/- a bit. You can’t vaccinate 7 billion people with a brand new drug overnight. I say 7 billion because of course we are in competition for the jabs with the world. It is going to take some time.

#121 Ancient Ron on 01.03.21 at 11:06 pm

Concerned about the rate of vaccination. The rapid immunization of the population is the key to economic recovery. We need 250,000 a week here in Ontario. January will tell us if Ford Gov is up to the task.

#122 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 11:20 pm

#96 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 8:08 pm

I also hate quad drivers because they chew up the paths too much. Ah, the glory days when most folks could only afford a relatively low hp motorcycle. But I will still have a beer with them afterwards because it is not my call, and they are mostly good folks. And I might have to get a quad too, because I’ve got arthritis setting in my ankle. Getting old sucks.

I like your list though. Somewhat incomplete but directionally accurate.

#109 IHCTD9 on 01.03.21 at 9:38 pm

““Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”

― Epictetus”

This is old, but true, advice. But the teacher cannot instruct a student who will not listen.

How does the old saying go? “When the student is ready the teacher will appear.” That is sort of true except that the teacher was already there.

I predict Faron is relatively young since he cannot tell the difference between argument and insults. Sort of like a school yard brat. “Your father was a hamster, and your mother smells of elderberries. I fart in your general direction!” (Monty Python for the young ones)

#123 Nonplused on 01.04.21 at 12:00 am

#95 I’m stupid on 01.03.21 at 8:03 pm
89 Nonplused

I laughed out loud at that one.

————————–

If we cannot laugh, we have lost all perspective.

#124 David on 01.04.21 at 12:26 am

One thing you’re forgetting Garth. After the pandemic is over, we’ll once again see all the left-leaning social justice warriors hitting the streets, blocking major arteries, rail lines and destroying the livelihoods of ordinary people. If you think things will be different this time, dream on. At some point, people are going to push back – either politically or by other means.

#125 John Bishop on 01.04.21 at 12:47 am

DELETED. Anti-vax.

#126 NSNG on 01.04.21 at 12:52 am

“These vaccines are 110% safe,” says Dr VG Somani, Drug Controller General of India

https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1345612619130892289

HAHAHAHAHA!

I’m pretty sure he’s lying.

Does this mean that if I take the vaccine I’ll get even healthier than I was before?

#127 Der gonna Vasillicv on 01.04.21 at 12:53 am

It’s not “ hoodies” manipulating BTC. It’s the same institutional box trading between themselves. Buying back and forth keeping the door narrowed to a bare trickle, always closing on a rising bias. “ Easy to buy, hard and expensive to sell”.

BTC is a ship of fools. There is no retail to BTC, just the entrails of an ugly insiders game. Box trades used to be illegal, what’s happened ? Is nobody watching? Or have the watchers decided not to watch? And if so why?

I’m on record as an optimist with a much longer time frame for recovery. First, there’s no vax. ‘21 will be a horrific year of death by the millions. Trudeau will do everything to manipulate seats into another minority. But, the rising dead count in his core and new restrictions on their meeting places where propaganda and coercion is strong might be the black swan that brings his game of weaponized immigration to a halt.

Individuals in those groups might do what people always do, start making decisions for themselves. On his own merit Trudeau doesn’t hold up well. Chaos my friends, is the stuff of life. Justin’s on very shaky ground and his usual tricks might not be enough. It’s beardo the liberals are running this time not unicorn Justin.

He is manipulating some very historically volitile people not long out of some very volitile places. Those guys can turn on a dime not using the same logic that Trudeaus K Street brain trust has planned for.

I think ‘21 will be interesting, and dangerous. Keep a lot of dry powder for a wild ride. If you think several years ahead then yes, preferred, REITs and restaurants might bring happy surprises. But, caution is the word. Everything will look much worse in April than it does today. Wait for real steals to appear, avoid the falling knives, and don’t let safety overwhelm you, be bold. Be terrified.

I

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 1:01 am

@#101 Ponzies Parable
“I agree anecdotes are worthless.
CEF is a good case in point.”

++++

Admit it.
You’re just jealous….because you dont have any.

#129 Faron on 01.04.21 at 1:13 am

#109 IHCTD9 on 01.03.21 at 9:38 pm

Aw, thanks tractor man. I’m not angry. I’m angry at what nonplused embodies. Even if it’s not the big one.

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.21 at 2:59 am

If you like American music (gospel,jazz,country, [email protected]) and think that Carter was, is the best President in modern times, then get a hold of CNNs “Jimmy Carter, the [email protected] President.
And even if you don’t like Carter it’s worth watching for political, historical context.

#131 Charity on 01.04.21 at 4:05 am

Tron

Fire your lawyer. Employers can give notice of change/termination of contract, whereby a new contract meeting any changes in employment standards or industry requirements can be implemented, and where any refusal to accept the new contract after that time period will be consider due notice. Fight all you want if done properly people will lose their jobs, there are no guarantees in life nor in employment.

#132 BillyBob on 01.04.21 at 6:15 am

#96 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 8:08 pm
#81 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 7:12 pm

NP, in his short time here, our good friend Faron has shown that he hates the following with all-consuming passion:

You
Me
Opposing or dissenting opinion
Rational, adult discussion
Wealth and wealthy people
Capitalism
Machines, particularly quads
People who drive quads
People who drive trucks
People who dislike junkies
Friendly people who offer him a ride out of remote areas
Successful investors
The colour tactical black
Staying on topic
Venezuelans
Engineers
Logic
Masculinity
Donald Trump
Light-heartedness
Republicans, conservatives
White men

==================================

Your list made me smile at how absolutely it nails the prototypical Victoria mindset.

I sometimes feel Faron has to be trolling, there’s no way anyone could tick so many boxes all at once by accident.

#133 BillyBob on 01.04.21 at 6:40 am

So I’m trying to puzzle through this concept of “pent up demand”. I don’t disagree that it exists. But these predictive statements seem to characterize it as this somewhat singular event. Like suddenly the world will announce an “all-clear” and everyone will come stumbling out of their little hidey-holes all at once and unleash torrents of wealth they’ve been nervously holding onto.

But it doesn’t work that way, does it? There is nothing consistent about infection levels nor the response on a global level. It would seem logical that the recovery will be similarly uneven.

Read a piece by the perm-dooomer-bear David Rosenberg the other day on the topic. Yes, I’m aware that he has been a contrarian forever and I generally discount much of his opinion. But if his figures are correct, his thesis makes for interesting reading. Basically saying that the hoped-for recovery is overblown, given that some sectors have actually benefitted from the pandemic (ie goods sales are massively up) and other that have suffered (ie service sectors) aren’t as widely traded on equity exchanges. So goods are saturated, and a bump in services (eventually, fitfully, and unevenly) would be minimal in impact on markets.

Of course there will be rises in things like aviation and hotel stocks (IF the vaccine is effective, which is far from guaranteed, and the when of that is still unknown). But I admit it’s hard to see how much of the “recovery” everyone is counting is on, isn’t already baked into the market…?

Not questioning that the speculative frenzy will continue – until it doesn’t – just that the “recovery” is based on much of anything else other than bubble mentality. In that sense I guess it WILL be like 1920. Just be sure to exit before 1929, as has been said.

Perhaps the Bloomberg terminal nerds could crunch the numbers Rosie was quoting.

https://financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-two-big-problems-with-the-pent-up-demand-everybody-is-counting-on

#134 Damifino on 01.04.21 at 6:54 am

#118 Father’s Daughter

I seriously wonder how Trudeau is going to get a majority government.
———————————-

The women voters of Southern Ontario will push the boy over the top. He is aware of that. It’s what makes him such a good politician, and such a poor leader.

#135 Freaky Down and Dirty on 01.04.21 at 7:58 am

DELETED

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 8:25 am

@#133 BillyBob
“So goods are saturated, and a bump in services (eventually, fitfully, and unevenly) would be minimal in impact on markets.”

++++

And then you factor in the amount of people who are worried about their jobs and or money….so they just bank their cash for a rainy day.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 8:29 am

@#56 Bill
“Skip the dishes is a joke to us. Major inefficiencies here.
Delivering a piece of chicken and a couple leaves of lettuce!”

++++

Anecdote Time!

I talked to a Skip the Dishes driver a few months back.
Stupidest delivery he had made…?
A small bag of cookies.

#138 Axehead on 01.04.21 at 8:55 am

#12. Robert B.

I disagree. The charter of rights and freedoms was appended to the Canadian constitution. Maybe Garth knows, but I don’t remember a vote on it, which should have happened to be constitutionally legal. I think what makes Canada a great country is that it is a free country, which lately doesn’t feel that free at all.

#139 Dharma Bum on 01.04.21 at 9:00 am

RE: RESTAURANTS

Yesterday’s catch phrase for those who lamented the loss of old technology jobs: “Learn to Code”.

Today’s catch phrase for those who lament the loss of restaurants: “Learn to Cook”.

Thank you.

Remember to credit me as the coiner when repeating that catchy phrase to all of your Uber Eats pals.

#140 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.04.21 at 9:25 am

Found this enlightening article from the NYT about how it is that markets and personal finances seemed, on average, so positive in 2020. Worth a read. Some highlights:

“The central, befuddling economic reality of the United States at the close of 2020 is that everything is terrible in the world, while everything is wonderful in the financial markets.”

“Salaries and wages fell less, in the aggregate, than even a careful observer of the economy might think. Total employee compensation was down only 0.5% for those nine months, more akin to a mild recession than an economic catastrophe.”

“So wages, salaries and other forms of workers’ compensation dropped only a little — $43 billion over the nine months — despite mass unemployment.”

“Americans’ income from unemployment insurance benefits was 25 times higher from March through November 2020 than in the same period of 2019…..In total, unemployment insurance programs pumped $499 billion more into Americans’ pockets from March to November than the previous year; $365 billion of it was a result of the expansion in the coronavirus relief bill.”

“The $1,200 checks to most U.S. households that were included in that legislation contributed a further $276 billion to personal income — much of which accrued to families that did not experience a drop in earnings.”

“These are remarkable numbers. When it’s all tallied up, Americans’ cumulative after-tax personal income was $1.03 trillion higher from March to November of 2020 than in 2019, an increase of more than 8%. ”

+
-spending on services down $575 billion
-spending on goods up by $60 billion

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/why-markets-boomed-human-misery-162058478.html

Overall a very revealing perspective on what happened, including all the excess money pumped into markets and Bitcoin and real estate, though 2021 remains hard to forecast as yet.

#141 Bezengy on 01.04.21 at 9:27 am

@#56 Bill
“Skip the dishes is a joke to us. Major inefficiencies here.
—————
Spoke to a STD (skip the dishes) driver last week. Guy seemed like he he was in the race for “employee of the month”, even with shorts on in December. Picked up his order and jumped in the passenger seat. Mom was driving. Nothing like teamwork in action.

#142 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.04.21 at 9:27 am

Found this enlightening article from the NYT about how odd it is that markets and personal finances seemed, on average, so positive in 2020. Worth a read. Some highlights:

“The central, befuddling economic reality of the United States at the close of 2020 is that everything is terrible in the world, while everything is wonderful in the financial markets.”

“Salaries and wages fell less, in the aggregate, than even a careful observer of the economy might think. Total employee compensation was down only 0.5% for those nine months, more akin to a mild recession than an economic catastrophe.”

“So wages, salaries and other forms of workers’ compensation dropped only a little — $43 billion over the nine months — despite mass unemployment.”

“Americans’ income from unemployment insurance benefits was 25 times higher from March through November 2020 than in the same period of 2019…..In total, unemployment insurance programs pumped $499 billion more into Americans’ pockets from March to November than the previous year; $365 billion of it was a result of the expansion in the coronavirus relief bill.”

“The $1,200 checks to most U.S. households that were included in that legislation contributed a further $276 billion to personal income — much of which accrued to families that did not experience a drop in earnings.”

“These are remarkable numbers. When it’s all tallied up, Americans’ cumulative after-tax personal income was $1.03 trillion higher from March to November of 2020 than in 2019, an increase of more than 8%. ”

+
-spending on services down $575 billion
-spending on goods up by $60 billion

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/why-markets-boomed-human-misery-162058478.html

Overall a very revealing perspective on what happened, including all the excess money pumped into markets and Bitcoin and real estate, though 2021 remains hard to forecast as yet.

#143 Penny Henny on 01.04.21 at 9:44 am

#61 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 6:12 pm
Sail Away – hope story (The Remarkable Power of Hope) and thank you for that.

THAT was good.

///////////////

Hey Sail Away, did you feel that little nudge around your backside?

#144 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 01.04.21 at 10:16 am

How about this for a prediction. The election crisis ends once Biden concedes to Trunq. This will happen in a day or two. I mean he has already cancelled his inaugural parade to give you dudes and dudettes a bit of foreshadowing. Once again, as per usual, violence will erupt from the left and will be blamed on the right.

Time for your meds, Warren. – Garth

#145 Sail Away on 01.04.21 at 10:24 am

#61 Dolce Vita on 01.03.21 at 6:12 pm

Sail Away – hope story (The Remarkable Power of Hope) and thank you for that.

THAT was good.

————–

DV, you’re welcome. Glad you liked it. Interesting results.

#146 Jesse on 01.04.21 at 10:33 am

#31 Carlos on 01.03.21 at 4:21 pm
Hey Garth
Have you been to Squamish? Gorgeous place, with the exception of that silly highway running thru the middle of town. ;)

****************

Squamish is beautiful, I’d kill to live there. An hour drive to Whistler, beautiful coastal city, great weather and it rarely snows. What city/town doesn’t have a highway running through it?

#147 Axehead on 01.04.21 at 10:59 am

Squamish: high taxes, bloated housing prices, socialist government, rude people, car insurance stupid, rains all winter.

#148 Yuus bin Haad on 01.04.21 at 11:00 am

Why have no leaders stepped up to address the one-way aisle issue? We all know that respecting directional arrows in supermarkets should be added to our list of dos and don’ts.

#149 Hilroy on 01.04.21 at 11:11 am

Place your bets on this headline soon “Hockey Players To Be Given Vaccine Priority”

#150 Not Anti Vaxxer on 01.04.21 at 11:13 am

I eagerly get my flu shot every year (including this flu season), my entire family is fully up to date on vaccines and if we travel we get any necessary shots for where we’re going.

That said, the development timeline for the COVID-19 vaccine is historically short, plus it’s a new delivery method (though it has been used before to treat cancer). You haven’t even had a year to see any long term side-effects.

I can’t see how any company or government would force this particular vaccine above all others when it is essentially still in a trial period. I especially don’t understand people who react to any hesitation with “just take the damn vaccine”. You are annoyed by the fact that others don’t want to sign themselves or their kids up to be guinea pigs?

I think you are more annoyed by the prospect of someone being an anti-vaxxer which I entirely agree with, but this is not a typical scenario.

Just take the shot and we can all move on. How hard is that to understand? It is your duty. – Garth

#151 yvr_lurker on 01.04.21 at 11:16 am

#111 Broadway
If i recall you are an eng prof. So you have the mechanical know how, the mountain experience, likely access to any tools thur an eng dept., and a hatred for that gondola…hmmm maybe squamish rcmp need your number! Haha.

——
That was funny. I suspected someone might try to out me this way. However, am too old to scramble up the poll up to the where the cables are to do the deed.

Sorry, am not a radicalized one. However, I hope that just like the trouble with finding reasonably priced insurance for condo owners in YVR that the owners of the gondola can’t find insurers for their eye sore given that some fringe element cut it twice. I would be happy if they just left the forest alone; no gondola, no huge “development” projects…

#152 Triplenet on 01.04.21 at 11:30 am

#16 jaguar
Impertinent….?
You need a dictionary and an atlas!

#153 Looong before .... on 01.04.21 at 11:32 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 8:29 am

I talked to a Skip the Dishes driver a few months back.
Stupidest delivery he had made…?
A small bag of cookies.
—————————————–
Skip the dishes I was in a firemans fishing derby up at Gibsons BC and the boat next to us had a pizza delivered to them via float plane. Led the derby for the largest fish for the first day but alas …

#154 KLNR on 01.04.21 at 11:37 am

looks like trumps the fraudster.
but we all knew that right.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/jan/04/donald-trump-georgia-votes-joe-biden-brad-raffensperger-senate-covid-coronavirus-us-politics-live

#155 Tommy on 01.04.21 at 11:49 am

I lost my free speech in 2020 so my resolution for the new year is to take back my free speech. I am talking about free speech across the internet, not on any one blog. Censorship on any one blog is not a big problem. I am taking aim at the SYSTEMIC censorship I experience across the internet. It’s not okay. I am going to fight it relentlessly, creatively, and strategically. I fully intend to prevail, as I always do in the long run. I an taking back my online free speech now!

#156 IHCTD9 on 01.04.21 at 12:00 pm

#122 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 11:20 pm

I also hate quad drivers because they chew up the paths too much. Ah, the glory days when most folks could only afford a relatively low hp motorcycle.
————————

I’ve been on trails where the trenching was so bad, my bone stock Griz would have trouble getting through – forget about the 2WD Raptor my eldest rides.

The issue is a small handful of dudes on 900lb, 100+ HP quads with lifts and 30″+ tires. 4″ tall lugs on some of these tires, they look like paddle wheels.

Turning forests into WW1 battlescapes is only the beginning. Ripping across (seeded) fields, hooning it up during deer season, pulling down barriers meant to keep motorized vehicles out (and of course then going in), ridiculously loud pipes, trespassing, bad behavior, drinking, and getting yourself killed are also popular.

All this in a Province where there are umpteen thousands of km worth of well maintained and Policed trails available for a measly 150.00 annual permit. Where the government allows you to ride along the roadways in many areas. Some trails like the Millennium trail, (a nice, easy 90km round trip ride thru Prince Edward County) are even free to use.

I’ve pretty much quit using some of the local trails. The damage being done on these is nuts, and I don’t want to even be seen out there on a quad.

Sucks, but I know it’ll never change. The hardware and cost has changed bigly since my days of riding a 14 HP ’82 RM80. Today, 4K gets you a 800 lb, 50-60HP 4X4 quad in the used market. The door is open to pretty much anyone.

#157 Crazed and a little confused on 01.04.21 at 12:14 pm

Hey garth / ryan

Is this the correction you mentioned. It was 16% growth in 2020
An amazing 23 % in 2019
So we are talking another 15 -20 % from todays #s for the 1st quarter then a slow movement upwards 10 % is possible given the high unemployment

#158 Elon Fanboy on 01.04.21 at 12:42 pm

#120 Nonplused “ I say 7 billion because of course we are in competition for the jabs with the world.”

As of this morning, Canada has only used 29% of doses delivered. We have plenty, we are just being very tardy delivering them.

Several provinces stopped all vaccinations for several days over the break, ffs.

Unless we see an exponential ramp up in vax rates it will take years to reach herd immunity levels.

#159 REIT rider on 01.04.21 at 12:43 pm

what were you smoking, huh

#160 Tommy on 01.04.21 at 12:57 pm

The last year of the Ox was 2009. That was the year I wrote my widely cited master’s thesis and I shamed both the Right and the Left in Vancouver to an international academic audience. Fun times. If 2021 is going to be like 2009, that bodes well for me!

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 1:05 pm

@#147 Axehead
“Squamish: high taxes, bloated housing prices, socialist government, rude people, car insurance stupid, rains all winte”
++++

Anecdote TIME!

I helped a friend move up to his family’s brand new house in Squeamish about 20 years ago.
Built on the flats down by the river… a former floodplain protected by a dyke.
Got everything unloaded and unpacked.
Had dinner, beers, crashed for the night….

3:00am …. BWAAAAA BWAAAA BWAAAAAAAAAAAA ripped me out of a sound sleep……as the locomotive and 80 car Freight train rumbled, screeched and crashed past their house……

#162 KLNR on 01.04.21 at 1:35 pm

@#155 Tommy on 01.04.21 at 11:49 am
I lost my free speech in 2020 so my resolution for the new year is to take back my free speech. I am talking about free speech across the internet, not on any one blog. Censorship on any one blog is not a big problem. I am taking aim at the SYSTEMIC censorship I experience across the internet. It’s not okay. I am going to fight it relentlessly, creatively, and strategically. I fully intend to prevail, as I always do in the long run. I an taking back my online free speech now!

quit being an a-hole and it might work out better for you

#163 Sail Away on 01.04.21 at 1:49 pm

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 1:05 pm

Re: Squamish railroad noise

———–

CEF, it’s amazing how much easier it is to sleep next to a railroad when you own a bunch of their stock. The whistles and roaring sounds like ‘ka-ching, ka-ching, ka-ching’!

Bill Gates is the largest shareholder of CN Rail, and his good friend Warren Buffett owns BNSF.

#164 Tommy on 01.04.21 at 1:57 pm

Thanks for posting my last couple comments, Garth. I truly appreciate it.

Since everyone is talking about Squamish, I might as well chime in. I would never live in Squamish. It is kind of a shit hole, IMO. It’s about halfway between Metro Vancouver and Whistler and so, in some ways, it combines the negatives of both while lacking the respective amenities of Whistler and Vancouver. It’s neither city nor country.

As a lifelong Metro Vancouverite, if I was going to move up that way, I would go all the way to Whistler, or beyond even. Or stay somewhere in the big city. Squamish is just depressing.

#165 IHCTD9 on 01.04.21 at 1:59 pm

I had last week off, and of course we were locked down right after Christmas day here in Ontario, so there was not much to do. I decided I needed a Covid Christmas Holiday project – I settled on building a “rocket stove” heater.

Built it here at work in a big empty shop between Tuesday and Thursday. Brought it home after 2 coats of high temp tactical black paint on Saturday evening, and test fired it out on my back deck to make sure it worked like it should, and to gas off the new paint.

The main deal with these is burning “stick wood” (ie slash, residual lumber, slab wood, pallet parts, scrap and junk wood) and a big “bell” to radiate lots of heat. I used a 40 gallon tank out of an old water heater I got for 50.00 off Kijiji. I built it to take 4′ lengths in a vertical hopper – the wood self feeds down into the fire and burns “sideways” (parallel with the floor).

Well, damned if these things don’t work great! I ran it for a couple hours on 8′ worth of old 2×4’s and some random junk wood, and it was just belting out the heat. Zero smoke from the stack, just heat signature. It’s a loud bugger though, all the snapping, popping and crackling resonate throughout the bell and exit out the hopper. The stove produces a wicked draft, and it really does sound like a rocket when running wide open.

I’m going to make an insert/thimble for a window in the back room, and set it up to run there for the rest of the winter to see how it does. This might be another tool brought to bear against my cost of living and future tax increases in Canada due to electing Trudeau. I’ve got junk wood galore, and there are piles of it in town free for the taking.

#166 Bill on 01.04.21 at 2:10 pm

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz

That’s hilarious. Crowdy
Costco is rocking it for a reason.
When I owned my restaurant in 1987 I bought russets by the ton.
8 to $15 for a 100lbs sack. That’s $300 a ton tops.
Quality foods $2 a lb I almost fell over.
THATS $4000 A TON!!!!
There’s no way in hell. Lesson is watch out for how marketing packaging cleans you out over time….ya don’t need to go to Starbux everyday.
Those small savings accumulated can be a huge nest egg.

#167 Ustabe on 01.04.21 at 3:00 pm

Sitting here, reading the overnight/early morning posts I wonder why my mind wanders to images of the grade school cool jocks standing around in the can, bitching about one of the nerds.

Not a good look for sturdy, conservative men.

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.21 at 3:04 pm

@#165 IHCTD9
” I’ve got junk wood galore, and there are piles of it in town free for the taking”

++++

Greta would be disappointed in your “carbon signature”….. and on her birthday but what the hell.
You have to find a way around those tax increases somehow.

#169 David Bakiody on 01.04.21 at 3:08 pm

Hi Garth:
Happy Safe New Year, been awhile since our Progressive Conservative Days eh. All is fine here in Nova Scotia. Any piece of dirt is selling including Condo’s thanks in park to outgoing Stay the Blazes how Premier and outsiders wanting safety in our bubble. A friend of mine told me his grandson was looking for a home in my nearby home town of Waterdown under $1million! say what? I could not believe the prices, and to think my father had a 5 acers on Brant Street in Burlington at one point and yes a camp on Lake Shore Drive In any rate that just proves my age, I am happy just to be on the right side of green with some jingle in my pocket and family that is safe and doing fine. Thanks for your support via good finance advice over the years and all the best.