Reflections

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

It’s that time of year again when we reflect back on the year and assess our personal and financial hits and misses. This year will clearly be different from others given the pandemic that has engulfed our lives and caused much pain, stress and hardship to so many people. Despite this, and that everyone wants to close the books on this fire dumpster of a year, we should still take the time for some self-reflection, which could position us for a much better 2021.

In today’s blog post I’m going ‘reflect’ by reviewing some of my key calls and recommendations made in these missives to see how I did, what I missed, and what I can improve on as an investor for the upcoming year. This is a ritual that I’ve done for a number of years in an aim to be better at my job as a financial advisor and portfolio manager.

In my outlook blog post dated January 3rd, I incorrectly predicted that the US/global economy would strengthen in 2020 and saw “low odds of a recession”. Obviously the pandemic blew up this thesis with the US/global economy experiencing the worst recession in modern history.

I also predicted that stronger corporate profits would propel stocks higher this year with the Canadian, US and emerging markets (EM) performing the best. I got the earnings call wrong but got the stock market direction correct with the TSX, S&P 500 and emerging markets returning 5.9%, 17.3%, and 16.9%, respectively, including dividends. I‘m particularly pleased with my call for the S&P 500 and EM equities to outperform this year.

Next up were my March blog posts where I predicted that the equity markets would recover from the big sell-off and would prove to be a buying opportunity. From my post “Anatomy of a bear market” dated March 16th:

  •  “Are we 50%, 75% or more through this bear market? Time will tell but I do believe we have already endured a good chunk of this bear market and I believe strongly that we will get through this and we’ll look back at this time as a buying opportunity.”
  • This proved prescient as the equity markets bottomed on March 24th and have been on a one-way ride to the upside ever since. While many other investors and pundits were letting their emotions get the best of them and recommending going to cash, we stuck with our disciplined investment approach by riding out the storm and even tried to take advantage of the decline by rebalancing client accounts and adding to equities around this pivotal market bottom.

In my April 24th blog post “REITS are on sale”, I highlighted how attractive REITs had become after the big sell-off. I highlighted the attractive yields and valuations from the sector in the post. Specifically, I wrote:

  • “Life is highly uncertain right now, which can help obscure the long-term value of assets. But I believe there is value surfacing in the REIT sector. Timing this stuff can always be difficult in the short-term, but longer term, value usually delivers good returns for patient investors. Until then, clip those great dividend yields.”
  • Since that blog post, REITs have risen over 12% with much more upside potential in 2021.

As we progressed into the summer I provided a market update in my blog post “Second half”, dated July 3rd. I made a short-term prediction for the equity markets to consolidate through the summer months but then rally into year-end. I was pretty spot-on with this forecast with equity markets consolidating in the summer/fall period and then rallying strongly in November and December. From the post:

  • “First, I believe the equity markets could consolidate through the summer months and trade in a range. For example, I see the S&P 500 potentially trading in a broad range of 2,700 to 3,300 through the summer months. Of course I’ll take the gains if the markets giveth, but I think it would be healthy for the equity markets to consolidate their recent strong gains over the historically weaker summer months. This would allow the markets to rebuild “internal energy” and set us up for a nice year-end rally.”

And finally, from my October and November blogposts I predicted that Biden would win the US election, leading Trump to contest the election and potentially trigger a short-term sell-off similar to that seen during the Bush/Gore 2000 contested election.

Following this expected short-term weakness markets would then rally into year-end given the strong seasonal period for equities from November to May. I got the election call correct (this time, I failed miserably in the 2016 election) and that the stock market would rally into year-end, but was off the mark on the short-term weakness call following the election results. Good enough for government work as the saying goes!

As I look back on this very challenging year I’m quite pleased with the results overall, both in terms of the recommendations I made on this blog and the solid performance results we delivered for our clients. In assessing my results my biggest miscalculation was the severity of the virus and the economic toll it would have on the global economy.

Initially, I believed the outbreak in China would resemble more of the 2003 SARS outbreak than the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Hopefully I won’t have to go through another of these terrible pandemics in my lifetime, but if it does happen, the lesson learned from this experience will be to be more circumspect and deferential to the potential impacts of these viral infectious diseases. But despite this, I’m proud of how we preformed this year and help navigate our clients through this difficult and historic time.

Summary of Key Calls and Recommendations

Source: Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

117 comments ↓

#1 Peter McLean on 01.02.21 at 11:04 am

You the man, Ryan!

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 11:12 am

2020 predictions went out the window with Covid.
But the long term investment strategy seems to be the best….
Cashing out in Feb and sitting out the year would have been an expensive lesson.

#3 Prince Polo on 01.02.21 at 11:15 am

Don’t forget about the freeloadin’ Millennials (like myself) who have benefitted from the TI brain-trust’s free advice. Kudos, good sir!

#4 KLNR on 01.02.21 at 11:21 am

this recent sale highlights the madness that is the Toronto real estate market over the past 15years.
tidy profit on that investment.

https://themash.ca/realestategossip/2020/12/sold-955-queen-st-w-ph18-west-queen-west

#5 TurnerNation on 01.02.21 at 11:26 am

1. The idea that all these politicans this week get busted for travelling abroad then are stripped of their jobs. If you think that this is all happenstance, not a scripted hit…well you must believe in Co-incidence theories. It’s also a compliance reminder to others. Obey or else.
I’d *guess*that all those gotten rid of were not on board 100% with this rollout; That debunked leaked plan did indicate some resistance present?
Buh-bye now.

2. Decent non-controversial chat from a doctor. He’s had enough.

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say

3. Get ready for our global technocracy. Hey didn’t these IBM guys also run the lists in the camps back then?
This is all about a never ending global prison lockdown. Freedom of movement is done (see point #1 that spate of travel-related stories is for our consumption, a compliance reminder), that died in the Old System that winter week in March 2020.

A reminder we’re not even one year into this global rollout and oh boy do they have the ‘solutions’ ready to go for us:

https://www.ibm.com/products/digital-health-pass
“IBM Digital Health Pass is designed to provide organizations with a smart way to bring people back to a physical location, such as a workplace, school, stadium or airline flight.”

#6 TurnerNation on 01.02.21 at 11:43 am

On the theme of control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements.

1. Watch your food supply. We know all the global companies are invested deep into lab-grown ‘plant and meat based foods [sic]’. Time to earn a ROI.
Man this is moving fast

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/12/31/industry-local-mayors-say-they-werent-consulted-on-bc-fish-farm-phase-out-plan.html

“VANCOUVER – Several Vancouver Island mayors and members of British Columbia’s salmon farming industry say a federal decision to phase out fish farming has left them feeling “disposable and discarded.”

In an open letter to Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan, they say they weren’t consulted before she announced a plan to phase out open-net pen farming in the Discovery Islands over the next 18 months.”

2. Oh yes, those debunked interment camps. You are free to leave at any time..

“New COVID-19 testing rules for air travellers kick in Jan. 7 (msn.com)”
“”Travelers who can prove that they were unable to get a test abroad will have to quarantine at a federally-approved facility upon their return for 14 days.”

2. From the Humor dept? Why is this…maybe because the do not read the newspapers lol. Mainstream source:

[Doomer trigger alert] a report about healthy people acting normally]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/mysteriously-covid-hasnt-spread-among-seattles-vulnerable-homeless-population-what-does-that-mean-for-a-vaccine/
““We shared cigarettes, we’re around each other every day,” Williamson said”

#7 Mike on 01.02.21 at 11:43 am

Biden didn’t win legitimately and Harris hasn’t resigned from her position. Interesting that people legitimately think Basement Biden got more votes than Obama.

Sheesh. Give it up. – Garth

#8 KNOW IT ALL on 01.02.21 at 12:03 pm

Can you make any estimates on Oil and Oil stocks?

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 12:04 pm

BC …..”The Best Place on Earth” ( according to the Gordon Campbell Liberals) has it’s warts exposed…
Harm reduction, safe injection sites, subsidized housing, etc etc etc…..

10’s of millions pumped into the Downtown East Side and everything is…..worse….

https://theprovince.com/opinion/daphne-bramham-vancouver-faces-both-a-humanitarian-and-existential-crisis

#10 justify on 01.02.21 at 12:06 pm

you willfully ignored the inverted yield curve in mid to late 2019. You willfully ignored the stresses in high yield corporate debt which started to deteriorate as early as late 2018.

those two signs alone should have told you to watch out going into late 2019 and early 2020. the virus was irrelevant. that it turned out as badly only made things worse.

you’re not objective in your analysis. you simply have a bullish tone regardless of what is happening. you’re a perpetual bull. that clouds your decisions. you should have been selling stocks in late 2019 and early 2020 to raise cash.

just like in Oct 2018.. preferred shares made a slight drop, and you were all over it .. on the long side. meanwhile, they were collapsing. it’s two years later, and you’re finally broken even on that call if you re-invesetd your dividends.

#11 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 12:27 pm

#6 TurnerNation that opening sentence reminds me of:

Brig. Gen. Jack D. Ripper
Dr. Strangelove
“Precious bodily fluids”

For the Moisters:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY

———————-

Nicely done on the predictions Ryan and here is hoping you are just as correct in 2021.

#12 bdwy on 01.02.21 at 12:48 pm

btc insanity pushing 33k. the bitbros say 100k. i think they are crazy. who the heck is plowing cash into this at the top of a parabolic run? beats me but they seem to be in a hurry to do so.

what goes parabolic forever?

BTC is 100% speculative, backed by nothing, excessively volatile and a complete gamble. Go near it at your own risk. We will not be making any investment recommendations. – Garth

#13 Bert on 01.02.21 at 1:00 pm

Don’t you think there’s way too much bullishness going into 2021? Every Wall Street commentator is talking about reopening and saying buy re opening stocks.

#14 Another Deckchair on 01.02.21 at 1:01 pm

One thing *I* would not have predicted:

Jan 1 2021, kids would get $100.00 tickets at the local outdoor rink from Ottawa City bylaw for playing a game of pickup hockey.

Another thing *I* would not have predicted:

Politicians pushing people to “STAY AT HOME” so that the beaches and bars down south in the sun and sand were without the pressing crowds of the non-elected plebs.

Strange times!

#15 useless on 01.02.21 at 1:04 pm

I was waiting for a prediction on 2021 at the end.

#16 AlbertaGuy (asking questions) in AB on 01.02.21 at 1:13 pm

So which one is it?

Politicians: “keep the economy, airports and airlines running”

Politicians: “dont travel or YOUR FIRED (maybe)”

If you CAN fly across international borders to destination x on a plane with hundreds of people in close quarters breathing the same air for hours…

then why cant you drive across a border with the people in your own bubble?

…try cracking a window at 30,000 ft for some fresh air

Dogs…who wants to start a poll to guess the date when we can drive to the usa – first showing your covid papers of course!

#17 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 1:13 pm

Canada VAX POPULI

1 bad. 1 setback.

Recall Canada Vax Orders, 214 million doses ordered & efficacy, 2021:

Novavax……………….52M, unknown efficacy
Sanofi/GSK…………..52, unknown efficacy
Moderna……………….40, 95%
Medicago………………20, unknown efficacy
Pfizer…………………..20, 95%
AstraZeneca………….20, 70%
Johnson & Johnson…10, unknown efficacy

BAD:

Make Sanofi/GSK = 0 for 2021.

NYT Vaccine Tracker:

“Dec. 11, Sanofi and GSK announced that their vaccine was proving disappointing. While it provided promising levels of antibodies in people under 50, older people did not respond as strongly as they had hoped. They will start a new Phase 2 trial in February with a different formulation…

Sanofi and GSK do not expect the vaccine to become available before the end of 2021.”

————

Revised Canada Vax Orders, 162 million doses ordered & efficacy, 2021:

Novavax……………….52M, unknown efficacy, orders of 1,284 million doses Worldwide.
Sanofi/GSK…………..0
Moderna……………….40, 95%, Approved
Medicago………………20, unknown efficacy, Cdn 50 people being tested in Montreal, in Ph. 2/3 trials.
Pfizer…………………..20, 95%
AstraZeneca………….20, 70%, UK approved
Johnson & Johnson…10, unknown efficacy, end of JAN 2021 results expected.

————

SETBACK

“A 30,000-person Phase 3 trial in the United States was delayed because of problems with manufacturing the doses required for the study. It finally launched on Dec. 28.”

Supposed to start in November.

From the schedule below, draw your own conclusions as to when Novavax will be ready (other vaccine efforts shown for contrast) and from NIH about the Phase 3 trial (seems it will take awhile to me):

https://i.imgur.com/uO7nfrr.png

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/phase-3-trial-novavax-investigational-covid-19-vaccine-opens

They have a contract with India’s The Serum Institute for production (largest vaccine maker in the World by far):

“Serum Institute of India, a major vaccine manufacturer, that could enable them to produce as many as 2 billion doses a year. If its clinical trials succeed.”

And their own ready production facility mid-2021:

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-facility-expansion-support-global-vaccine

Draw your own conclusions as to when Novavax will be ready to manufacture provided they get succeed and get approved.

——————–

My take:

Expect Gov Canada to approve AstraZeneca very soon. Last “ace in the hole” left for having more doses than people to vaccinate. Pfizer + Moderna enough to VAX 30M Beavers (15 yr olds and older) and enough for 70% herd immunity (21M).

Called upon Trudeau, Hajdu and Tam on Twitter today to update Canadians (again).

#18 Sail Away on 01.02.21 at 1:20 pm

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 12:04 pm

BC …..”The Best Place on Earth” ( according to the Gordon Campbell Liberals) has it’s warts exposed…

Harm reduction, safe injection sites, subsidized housing, etc etc etc…..

10’s of millions pumped into the Downtown East Side and everything is…..worse….

—————

BC is great, especially rural and small towns… But, yes, homeless junkies are a real problem.

Remember Van city council voted to expropriate the Sahotas’ Regent and Balmoral a year ago for $1? Looks like they just settled with for $7.5M, so at least the council was prevented from blatant theft of private property.

Now it’s time to open the floodgates to renovate these dumps for estimated $90M (public money, of course), which will probably take 5 years and 3x the estimate, then pack them full with the most destructive, problematic residents possible- again on the public dime.

Yep, keep spending that money. Enable homeless junkie-dom and watch it expand.

#19 Rebel on 01.02.21 at 1:29 pm

DELETED

#20 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 1:35 pm

Forgot…

Canada VAX POPULI (Medicago, Cdn vaccine)

Medicago………………20M doses

Estimated Primary Completion Date:

December 31, 2021

Use Tabular view:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04636697

—————-

Revised Canada Vax Orders, 142 million doses ordered & efficacy, 2021:

Novavax……………….52M, unknown efficacy, orders of 1,284 million doses Worldwide.
Sanofi/GSK…………..0
Moderna……………….40, 95%, Approved
Medicago………………0
Pfizer…………………..20, 95%, Approved
AstraZeneca………….20, 70%, UK approved
Johnson & Johnson…10, unknown efficacy, end of JAN 2021 results expected.

—————-

Why I expect Gov Canada to approve AstraZeneca very soon. Prizer + Moderna = exact needs for Canada and no more.

Cutting it close to me unless J&J comes to the rescue, sooner than later, for that “safety margin” and/or Novavax makes good on deliveries latter 1/2 of 2021.

#21 Jurassic Steerage on 01.02.21 at 1:36 pm

Objects are closer than they appear.

#22 Joe on 01.02.21 at 1:39 pm

Can’t predict a boom or recession only in hindsight not sure why investors try. And as for bottoming out and consolidating up thats easy to predict these days what with feds pumping new money when there’s a crash.

#23 Pete from St. Cesaire on 01.02.21 at 1:41 pm

#12 bdwy on 01.02.21 at 12:48 pm
btc insanity pushing 33k. the bitbros say 100k. i think they are crazy. who the heck is plowing cash into this at the top of a parabolic run?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It’s most likely the powers-that-be doing the buying. It doesn’t cost them anything to do so (they create their money out of thin air) and since the whole Grand Reset is centered around making everybody bankrupt what better way than to create another huge bubble which they can pop at any time. They hype the cryptos, they push them to the stratosphere to get anyone with appreciable assets on board, then they pull the plug. They don’t mind taking ‘losses’ on their fiat-money investments, it’s all part of the game. And make no mistake, after they pop the bubble they will outlaw the cryptos and they have the technology to enforce it.

#24 Andrewski on 01.02.21 at 1:44 pm

I’m very happy to have increased my position in NA back in March when it dipped to under $39! Great posts Ryan.

#25 AlbertagGuy (suggesting a contest) in AB on 01.02.21 at 1:44 pm

Seeings as we are now well into prediction season I propose that Garth start a new poll…the winner gets the 2nd coveted dog blog post

Predict the date when we can drive to the usa – first showing your covid papers BOTH WAYS of course.

#26 P.Ooched on 01.02.21 at 1:45 pm

7 out of 11 is a pretty impressive batting average on the “Predictions” front. Looking forward to your ‘2021 Outlook’ aka Predictions post.

I will try with a few predictions of my own – somewhat contrary to the narrative here and you can all feel free to mercilessly mock me – next year – should they not pan out.

Work From Home(WFH) – UP – Some foresee a not too distant future with Covid gone(or under control) and employees happily commuting back into the downtown office towers that Covid chased them out of. Horny RE lusting ‘Canadians’ once again snapping up shoddily built tiny concrete boxes in the sky at more than $1000 sq ft to get themselves onto that first rung of the home ownership ladder while they revel in the urban lifestyle that their preferred metro dishes up.

Sure, no doubt, many employers will call their employees back to HQ once the ‘all clear’ has been given on 202?-mm-dd ( or when exactly is that again?)

And those employees that ditched their downtown condos and bought houses in Hunstville are in for one monster of a commute, BUT ….

The WFH cat is out of the bag and it ain’t going back again. Companies that leverage the advantages that it can provide will have a competitive edge over those that don’t.

Not everyone who can WFH will WFH, but [start prediction] the percentage of companies offering WFH options will be an order of magnitude or more greater than what it was prior to covid arriving on our shores and it will continue to grow over the next decade. [end prediction]

Times are changing – Canadians need to adapt, Companies need to adapt. Paleo bosses need to adapt.

IMO, The fact that WFH employment options can provide Canadians with a solution to the home ownership affordability problem that faces many Canadians today is a BONUS and should be championed as such.

#27 Sparrow on 01.02.21 at 1:46 pm

#16 AlbertaGuy
The cabin air in a 737 changes every 2-3 minutes. It passes through hepa filters.

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/travel-info/cleaning

There is enough misinformation floating around. You are not breathing the same air for hours.

#28 Sparrow on 01.02.21 at 1:51 pm

P.S. AlbertaGuy.

Please do NOT roll the window down at 30 000 ft! ;)

#29 Flop... on 01.02.21 at 2:02 pm

I was looking for something uplifting to watch last night and settled on watching a documentary on the opioid epidemic in the U.S.

A lot of the first half, which is in the YouTube clip which touched on how Purdue targeted the Appalachian Area and how the lobbied doctors and such back in the 90s, I had seen various versions of before.

The bit that I found interesting in the second half was how they are trying to change things in Buffalo, N.Y.

People that have an overdose are immediately dealt with so there is less chance of relapse.

They are required to front a Drugs Court 5 days a week.

Yes, they go to court 5 days a week to show they are clean and daily updates are given on their progress and any problems they are dealing with.

One guy said something along the lines of that when people complain about coming to court so often he would say your job used to be finding your drugs each day, now it is to go to court and find a way to get clean and break the cycle of addiction.

All the agencies that are affected by the opioid crisis have regular meetings to be kept up with the most recent changes in approach and data.

Supposedly crazy expensive, but apparently it was making a huge difference until the pandemic hit, I think they stated something like opioid deaths are up in 40 states in the last nine months.

It is called The Forgotten Epidemic.

It has been superseded by The Unforgettable Pandemic…

M46BC

——————————–

First half.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4T7u-mNGtJM

#30 the Jaguar on 01.02.21 at 2:13 pm

@#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 12:04 pm
Thanks for that Link, CEF. An interesting article which demonstrates that if you are going to throw money at a problem it better be for more than progressive politics or trying to be fashionable. Sometimes hard problems need hard solutions. Here are a couple of links that detail what’s going on east of the Rockies in your neigbouring province……..

https://www.townandcountrytoday.com/alberta-news/missing-money-found-no-criminal-charges-involving-alberta-drug-site-police-3206655

https://tnc.news/2020/09/04/alberta-wont-spend-a-dime-supplying-drugs-to-addicts-associate-minister-of-addictions/

#31 mike from mtl on 01.02.21 at 2:17 pm

#16 AlbertaGuy (asking questions) in AB on 01.02.21 at

Dogs…who wants to start a poll to guess the date when we can drive to the usa – first showing your covid papers of course!
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Late summer – maybe.

Though expect the virus to be getting much worse press until then.

Oh and just to point out, come February the diaspora of a certain large communist nation in Asia to be, like lemmings, flying to and back. Politically a no-go to restrict that.

By March like last year we’ll probably be swamped again. But no fear, their amazing command leadership says the virus has been defeated, so no worries.

#32 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 2:21 pm

Finally for today, what is VAX POPULI going to cost Canada in 2021, USD/dose?

Pfizer $15-20
Moderna $22-38
AstraZeneca $2-4
J&J $8.50

Novavax……………….$???
Moderna……………….40M * $22-38 = $880 Million to $1.52 Billion
Pfizer…………………..20M * $15-20 = $300 Million to $400 Million
AstraZeneca………….20M * $2-4 = $40 Million to $80 Million
Johnson & Johnson…10M * $8.50 = $85 Million

Convert to $CDN and add up on your own. Regardless, not cheap. Still, better than dead.

I thought of doing a cost, benefit analysis based on efficacy…then decided to have a rum and coke instead.

———————-

Sources:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-pfizer-astrazeneca-moderna-vaccine-eu-revealed-belgian-mp-2020-12?r=US&IR=T

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-how-do-the-moderna-and-pfizer-coronavirus-jab-candidates-compare-12134062

#33 Ryan Lewenza on 01.02.21 at 2:30 pm

KNOW IT ALL “Can you make any estimates on Oil and Oil stocks?”

Next month or two could be challenging for oil as demand declines with the shutdowns but I see oil prices and oil stocks rising this year as the vaccine rollout picks up and demand returns. I believe we’ll see WTI hit $60 this year. – Ryan L

#34 Arthor on 01.02.21 at 2:35 pm

This “reflections” post reads like a conspicuous version of revisionist history. Thankfully most sophisticated investors avoid the advice of a skewed and narrow minded liberal windbag.

#35 Ryan Lewenza on 01.02.21 at 2:35 pm

Bert “Don’t you think there’s way too much bullishness going into 2021? Every Wall Street commentator is talking about reopening and saying buy re opening stocks.”

Yes in the short term. Markets have rallied a lot and investor sentiment is excessively high. I would love to see a pullback to address the overly bullish sentiment and work-off the overbought technical condition. But if I look out a year from now I believe equity markets will be higher and therefore we’re bullish longer term. – Ryan L

#36 Ryan Lewenza on 01.02.21 at 2:38 pm

useless “I was waiting for a prediction on 2021 at the end.”

That’s coming in the next blog post. – Ryan L

#37 Lobster Man on 01.02.21 at 2:39 pm

Happy New Year, Everyone!

Here is a real life story – about moving…..

https://fintecology.com/2020/12/30/a-california-native-moved-to-canada-to-achieve-the-american-dream-business-insider/

#38 Arthor on 01.02.21 at 2:51 pm

For all those who have been conned (by so called “experts”) into thinking the US election is over, observe:

https://trendingpolitics.com/senator-ted-cruz-sounds-the-alarm-orchestrates-plan-to-challenge-electoral-college-certification/

Consider this possibility as you advance your 2021 investment strategy.

Actually it’s over, Colin. Please run along now. – Garth

#39 Simon on 01.02.21 at 2:56 pm

Better than a dartboard.

#40 Tarot Card on 01.02.21 at 2:57 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Ryan
Excellent predictions, I admire a person who can make a long forecast and then update as more information becomes available.
I think 2021 will be just as difficult to predict

Should I make a prediction?
My assumption
A recovery after people realize the vaccine is working and daily cases in Canada drop below the 1,000 mark.

I also believe people were fed up with all the covid and used Christmas and New Years as a justified break. Therefore cases will be way higher in January. However, I believe many people will start taking this seriously again and my forecast is the numbers will start to drop dramatically by the end of January and then as the vaccine takes effect to drive in the final nail. When?
Based on assumption I see January and February dip based on fear of raising covid cases. Summer, people will begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel and stocks will move higher and by third quarter we may see the start of the roaring 20s. Call it pend up demand or billions in savings will they spend is the big question.

I am not going to over complicate the prediction with all the other analysis, keep it simple. The wild card will be Robinhoods 20 percent of the market controlled by whims, interesting.

I believe Turner investments sleep at night balanced portfolio is the best option for many! Myself I am 90 percent stocks and ETFs. My goal is 12 to 15 percent gain for the year. For the record I made 15 and 17 percent in two TFSAs with less than 10 trades in 2020.

My hot investment advice, make 20 percent plus, it so easy……..drum roll please
Pay off your credit cards.

Have a great weekend.

#41 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 2:58 pm

Finally, finally for today, what is VAX POPULI going to cost Canada in 2021, for Pfizer cryo freezers?

This since the last Comment was VARIABLE costing so to keep the FIXED costing people happy:

1 Pfizer happy -70 deg C cryo freezer = USD $15K

and for all you comparison shoppers:

100 litres in size — about half the size of a typical kitchen fridge — should be able to hold about 20,000 vaccine doses. Alberta bought 6. Major manufacturers include Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, PHC Corp of North America, Stirling Ultracold, Helmer Scientific and Luxembourg’s B Medical Systems.

Canadian patriotism (and make some extra cash on the side):

“Chapman’s Ice Cream offers to help store COVID-19 vaccines in freezers”

And Lord know what it cost to fly Pfizer in from Belgium to Kanuckistan + gobs of dry ice?

Sources:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/alberta-pfizer-vaccine-freezers-1.5810786

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/medical-freezer-demand-1.5798535

Oh ya, Chapman’s:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/chapman-s-ice-cream-offers-to-help-store-covid-19-vaccines-in-freezers-1.5239086

When VAX POPULI done, Chapman’s can probably get up some cut rate deals on slightly used cryo freezers, Canada wide.

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:02 pm

Happy new year, Ryan.
How does your prediction record compare to other big shots in the business?
And also, did you buy another Lambo with the bonus?
Enquiring minds need to know.

#43 Dolce Vita on 01.02.21 at 3:06 pm

#36 Ryan Lewenza

useless “I was waiting for a prediction on 2021 at the end.”

That’s coming in the next blog post. – Ryan L

——————

Looking forward to it.

7.5/10 predictions correct (+0.5 mark for Trump last prediction).

50% correct would be good.

But 75%?

Why I’m looking forward to you next blog post…

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:10 pm

CEF, Jaguar, Sailo,
No news, so let’s beat up on the homeless again.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 3:13 pm

@#38 Are-Thor
“For all those who have been conned (by so called “experts”) into thinking the US election is over, observe:”

++++

Bwahahaha.
My god, You MAGA aficionados are always good for a laugh.

Ted Cruz, pandering to his knuckle dragging electorate.

It costs him nothing to spew out ,that he’s “demanding” a recount/ whatever…
He knows his requests will go nowhere.
A paper tiger.
Just so long as his voters think he actually cares….. he wins.

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:18 pm

#37 Lobster Man on 01.02.21 at 2:39 pm
Happy New Year, Everyone!

Here is a real life story – about moving…..

https://fintecology.com/2020/12/30/a-california-native-moved-to-canada-to-achieve-the-american-dream-business-insider/
———————————
The reverse brain drain will become more prevalent in the coming years, as more and more Americans are waking up and realizing it was just a “dream”

#47 P.Ooched on 01.02.21 at 3:36 pm

Predictions 2021 ON gov.ca election # 44

Unless yet another Liberal party scandal of ‘SNC Lavalin proportions’ or greater unfolds in the weeks prior to or during the next election campaign – Canadians will re elect T2’s Liberal government for it’s 3rd consecutive term.

Unless the Conservative party has a re-birth/reckoning/epiphany/enlightenment of herculean proportions(they won’t) before they downvote the spring budget prompting a fall election … [start prediction] … the Conservative party currently stands with an almost zero chance of forming the next government and a 2021 election will leave Canadians with a solid Liberal majority government for the next 5 years.[end prediction]

But that’s not really a hard thing to foresee is it? What comes next is a little tougher.

#48 westcdn on 01.02.21 at 3:39 pm

My wife knew me. I signed up to install stoves to villagers in Guatemala. I bought them (got a tax deduction) and the women were heroic – they balanced babies on their back while cooking!!

I got to visit Tikal a few times. https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=tikal+map&qpvt=tikal+map&FORM=IGRE

So watching a sunrise from one of their temples was pleasant. Seeing the Toucans trying to fly was funny. They only exist at sea level because their beaks are heavy.

The Mayans taught me things – such as the evil of civil war but yet the value of decency. Not was everything fine such as being out at night – even the cops went home. Finest meals i have paid.

#49 wallflower on 01.02.21 at 3:47 pm

Driving through Wyoming several years back, pretty sure I saw a few of those in my rear and side view mirrors.
Either that or Wyoming just messed with my worldview.

#50 Penny Henny on 01.02.21 at 3:51 pm

#27 Sparrow on 01.02.21 at 1:46 pm
#16 AlbertaGuy
The cabin air in a 737 changes every 2-3 minutes. It passes through hepa filters.
////////////

if it changes every 2-3 minutes then why does it have to go through a hepa filter?
and if it still must go through a hepa filter does it go through at 1 minute intervals?

#51 Crazed and a little confused on 01.02.21 at 3:54 pm

#40 tarot card
I believe most would agree the January covid #s would warrant a lot of concern . We are at max capacity st various hospitals to care for the six especially with the new variant.
” pay off credit cards” i pretty everyone who reads this blog is savy enough to do that.
I dont think Ryan short term pull back has happened yet. TRUMP is still in the white house. Go proud boys January 20. Someone had to say it

#52 Linda on 01.02.21 at 4:11 pm

Excellent post Ryan. I’m feeling optimistic about 2021. Yes, there is every chance that the virus will be rampaging for some time yet, but now vaccines have arrived there is reason to believe that that a post Covid world will emerge before the end of 2021. Dare I say it, possibly even some frothy market romping as economies begin to fire up again.

#53 KLNR on 01.02.21 at 4:19 pm

@#38 Arthor on 01.02.21 at 2:51 pm
For all those who have been conned (by so called “experts”) into thinking the US election is over, observe:

https://trendingpolitics.com/senator-ted-cruz-sounds-the-alarm-orchestrates-plan-to-challenge-electoral-college-certification/

Consider this possibility as you advance your 2021 investment strategy.

Actually it’s over, Colin. Please run along now. – Garth

Garth, these conspiracy theorists may be a bigger blight on this blog than the anti-vaxers

#54 Trump! on 01.02.21 at 4:37 pm

Sheesh. Give it up. – Garth

Actually it’s over, Colin. Please run along now. – Garth

Yeah. It’s over. Forget about it. No chance. Stop talking about it. Do as your told. It’s only the most important seat and virtual referendum on morality. Just stop already, roll over and play dead. Good boy!

If Garth is right, and this “is over.” Then we have much bigger problems as more than half of the USA (and growing chunk of the rest of the world) isn’t going to stomach it.

#55 NSNG on 01.02.21 at 4:43 pm

This is Canada?

So now they have resorted to gooning to ‘protect’ us?

This has crossed a line. Do they think this will make people more compliant?

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1345413604787544066

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 4:44 pm

#49 wallflower on 01.02.21 at 3:47 pm
Driving through Wyoming several years back, pretty sure I saw a few of those in my rear and side view mirrors.
Either that or Wyoming just messed with my worldview.
—————————
It’s a common sight in the heartland and the south.
It’s becoming a tourist attraction.
Most of them are Sailo’s cousins.

#57 Sail Away on 01.02.21 at 4:48 pm

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:10 pm

CEF, Jaguar, Sailo,
No news, so let’s beat up on the homeless again.

————

Yes, well… they beat up on me.

Costs I’ve incurred in 2020 due to the transients:

1. Fencing commercial building courtyard: $46,000
2. Vandalism to courtyard and lower units, 6 instances. Total cost: $42,000; my cost: $18,000
3. Roving security patrol. My portion of business association contract: $21,000

I also lost some excellent long-term tenants due entirely to aggressive thugs wandering in and causing trouble, my Tesla has been keyed twice and I spent more energy cleaning garbage every morning.

Let’s call my damages $100,000 for 2020.

Some people call that an annual salary.

#58 The Woosh on 01.02.21 at 4:53 pm

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:02 pm
Happy new year, Ryan.
How does your prediction record compare to other big shots in the business?
And also, did you buy another Lambo with the bonus?
Enquiring minds need to know.

————————————————

I’d prefer a comparison to XBAL and XGRO. That would be good measure of success.

#59 Cici on 01.02.21 at 5:08 pm

#16 AlbertaGuy (asking questions) in AB

Good question, but I think the answer is painfully obvious: flying is less accessible, its easier to monitor the whereabouts of airline passengers and air traffic is currently running at 10% of usual levels. If all the borders were currently open to car traffic, do you really think that car travel would be running at 10% of usual levels?

I seriously doubt it. The US reached the 20M COVID case count last week, and just a few days ago registered a record 3900 COVID deaths in one 24-hour period.

Do you really want all that dashing across the border? If the borders were open, our healthcare system would simply implode. It’s already on its knees in many jurisdictions.

Once the majority have been inoculated, we should be able to get the virus under control. When that happens, we can start travelling and getting back to normal. But two important things have to happen first: we have to act FAST with the vaccine roll out and people have to suck it up and stop acting like childish idiots.

“Letting it rip” will just cause more mutations before the vaccines can take effect or even render them useless. In which case, lockdowns will be more severe and much longer in duration. Not to mention the upticks in death and economic destruction.

#60 HPVictoria on 01.02.21 at 5:24 pm

Great post, Ryan!

#61 Nonplused on 01.02.21 at 5:26 pm

#25 AlbertagGuy (suggesting a contest) in AB on 01.02.21 at 1:44 pm
Seeings as we are now well into prediction season I propose that Garth start a new poll…the winner gets the 2nd coveted dog blog post

Predict the date when we can drive to the usa – first showing your covid papers BOTH WAYS of course.

—————————–

That could be a year away. Too long for the attention span of this comments section.

#62 Paul on 01.02.21 at 5:27 pm

Well don’t look in the mirror it’s gaining on us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxoBzzDP5lU

#63 KAC on 01.02.21 at 6:04 pm

Despite the likelihood of Biden finally being officially recognized as President Elect on January 6th., today’s announcement from Senator Cruz strongly suggests it ain’t over until it’s over.

His press release seems well reasoned and is worth reading.

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=5541

It’s over. Do not be so naive. – Garth

#64 Bezengy on 01.02.21 at 6:06 pm

And all this advice is free, absolutely no charge. I love free. Even the “Winnipeg Free Press” costs me $3.00 bucks today.

#65 Nonplused on 01.02.21 at 6:07 pm

#50 Penny Henny on 01.02.21 at 3:51 pm
#27 Sparrow on 01.02.21 at 1:46 pm
#16 AlbertaGuy
The cabin air in a 737 changes every 2-3 minutes. It passes through hepa filters.
////////////

if it changes every 2-3 minutes then why does it have to go through a hepa filter?
and if it still must go through a hepa filter does it go through at 1 minute intervals?

———————————–

Do we not all have google? This is an older report but it was easy to find.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/195131

50% of the air blowing at you from that nozzle is fresh from outside and 50% is recirculated. That is why the hepa filter. Also this study found no significant increase in the rate of common cold transmission between newer airplanes that recirculate 50% of the air and older planes that use only fresh air.

But regardless where the air comes from, everyone on the plane is still sharing it and the water droplets don’t just magically disappear. Stale air is not the problem when talking about covid transmission, shared air is.

#66 Bezengy on 01.02.21 at 6:18 pm

After almost a year Canadians are starting to wake up to the fact that this pandemic is serious. Kiddo is a RT (respiratory therapist). My spider senses tell me she’s losing patience with some who think getting Covid is no big deal. Her words below to a family member who questioned a visit to the ICU (intensive care unit) and if we could just operate from a mobile unit.
——-
Sure we have respirators for everyone (always have) but when a covid patient gets intubated- they need continuous support from many many healthcare professionals. They will cough up sputum and blood for hours requiring continuous suctioning, removal from the respirator to manual ventilate until their oxygen levels become adequate and then they need 4 people to bring them to a CT scan which takes about 1-2 hours, then a bronchoscopy may need to be performed which takes another 1-2 hours, after this they will likely be unstable requiring a physician and nurse to continuously titrate medication to keep their blood pressure adequate. 3 hours later their heart will stop requiring A minimum of 6 people to do a full resuscitation.. oh and the treatment for covid is proning (upside down) so every four hours a minimum of 6 staff have to flip a 300 lb limp body connected to 20+ lines like a pancake and then repeat for 48 hours

So a “mobile icu” would need a CT scanner, MRI machine, operating room and much much more, transporting these patients isn’t possible.

#67 Barb on 01.02.21 at 6:25 pm

“Dogs…who wants to start a poll to guess the date when we can drive to the usa – first showing your covid papers of course!”

——————————-
October 1, 2021

#68 Nonplused on 01.02.21 at 6:27 pm

#57 Sail Away on 01.02.21 at 4:48 pm

Let’s call my damages $100,000 for 2020.

Some people call that an annual salary.

——————————–

I was involved in commercial real estate for a while and it isn’t just the homeless running up the costs for owners and tenants alike. “Homed” people (is that what you call them?) can be just as much of a pain too.

A famed one for us was people in the area using the dumpsters behind the stores as their own free garbage receptacles because they didn’t want to pay the city $15/ton. They’d throw everything in there, fridges, couches, home electronics, batteries, household waste, construction waste, everything. But when confronted they would act like we were the bad guys. They did not realize that we also pay $15 a ton and that once the fridge is in there we have to get the waste management company to come out early, which was even more.

Skate boarders were also a problem, scuffing stuff up and generally being a hazard to customers entering or leaving the buildings. This was solved by building a skateboard park to distract them. But guess who had to pay for that?

The long and the short of it is that there are a myriad of reasons I don’t like people. It’s not just the snow boarders and Europeans cutting in line at the ski hill I hate. I hate just about all the idiots. And I am not surprised that if you cannot convince someone that he is not entitled to dump his old couch in your garbage bin that he won’t wear a mask either.

#69 Krystal Ball on 01.02.21 at 6:28 pm

#8 KNOW IT ALL on 01.02.21 at 12:03 pm

Can you make any estimates on Oil and Oil stocks?

Yes, I can. Thanks for asking.
I predict that they will go up. In the case that they don’t, I predict they will go down.

I can assure you that they will not remain exactly the same.

I hope that helps!

#70 fishman on 01.02.21 at 6:38 pm

How about we add my my bill 2020 because of shitrats in Vancouver. 2k for the geotech engineer to test soil & submit documents of onsite tests we’re at hardpan. 2k for civil engineer to draw up & submit plans for footings,pillars & slab. $500 for onsite inspections. 13 k for hoe, & removal 10 dump trucks of loon shit. Replace with road base. Wet & compress base as delivered. 18k to form up footings,pillars, slab. Includes cement, pouring & placing. It’ll be another 20 k to finish off the above ground vertical beams, fencing,big auto gate, cameras, motion lites etc. Probably more. But hey, we should all be thankful our city council isn’t as awake as they are just south of us in Seattle. Their council is trying to get a motion through city hall that robbery & thievery isn’t a crime if the perpetrator (now classified as a victim) has substance abuse as an alibi. Alternatively, you can keep your vehicles from being smashed by leaving them unlocked. But then the junkies use the reclining seats because they like to elevate their leg & shoot up in their ankles & toes. That leaves you cleaning up all the blood that gets splattered when they miss or whatever.

#71 Stealth on 01.02.21 at 6:42 pm

Thank you Ryan,

When you get a chance could address the large disparity of returns between USA and the rest of the world in the last decade? For example S&P 500 returns were pretty much 2x emerging mkt, cdn, internationally developed.

Past returns are no indication of future results etc… however can you address this fact, could be part of your next blog involving predictions for 2021 or perhaps a separate post. People are asking themselves why do I need international exposure, and this has probably been a topic of discussion over past decades…especially for us citizens.

I am not really sure what to make of it and have no agenda wanted to see what you think.

Thank you, hope everyone is staying safe.

(Hopefully the answer is not Pi or the golden ratio :)

#72 R on 01.02.21 at 6:52 pm

The Republicans contesting the elections ! Follow the money. The longer the Republicans can keep the story alive, the longer they can request support funds from the Trump base supporters. The irony is so rich. Trumpets being conned by the biggest con artist in history. Their funding keeps the funding con alive. It is the Trump supportes that need to be “awoke” !!

#73 KAC on 01.02.21 at 6:57 pm

#63 KAC on 01.02.21 at 6:04 pm
Despite the likelihood of Biden finally being officially recognized as President Elect on January 6th., today’s announcement from Senator Cruz strongly suggests it ain’t over until it’s over.

His press release seems well reasoned and is worth reading.

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=5541

It’s over. Do not be so naive. – Garth

******************

When seven Senators issue a statement which is reportedly supported by over 140 Congressment it seems reasonable to at least consider it.

The joint letter the seven Senators released seems well balanced and refers to some well established facts. Not liking facts doesn’t change them.

I agree the odds remain against Trump’s initial voter landslide being restored once the massive spike in Biden ballots had been counted in the contested states after their rather strange late night counting interruptions, but we probably won’t really be certain until January 6th which will likely be a day for the history books.

The outcome was sealed long ago. These guys are just trying to save their political asses by feeding public ignorance and prejudice. There is no equivocation. Get over it. – Garth

#74 Steve French on 01.02.21 at 7:26 pm

It was steady as she goes for me in Australia, i didn’t panic and held things right on through.

But my returns were hurt by the rising $AUD.

The Aus Dollar started 2020 at 69 cents and ended up at 77 cents US. That brought down the Australian value of my USD ETF holdings (accounting for about 25% of the portfolio) and affected my overall returns measured in my home currency.

So from now on my plan is that when the Aussie peso is below 70 cents i am going to switch my USD ETFs back into Aussie denominated ETFS, and when the Aussie peso is above 80 cents i will do the reverse.

Then hopefully i can catch some currency tailwinds in addition to the regular sort of gains.

When all was said and done, I finished flat on the year for 2020.

#75 Al on 01.02.21 at 7:36 pm

The Trump in a landslide crowd is still out here? Lol I’ll one up them and call it for Trump in a landslide after Bidens inauguration.

#76 cuke and tomato picker on 01.02.21 at 7:40 pm

Sail away – I suggest you retire young sit back and get your chuckles.

#77 millmech on 01.02.21 at 7:47 pm

#70 Fishman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpAi70WWBlw
Documentary titled “Seattle is Dying” by KOMO News.

#78 cuke and tomato picker on 01.02.21 at 7:56 pm

Sail away your best bet is to retire young in a nice area
relax, enjoy and smile on your sweet success.

#79 Gonkman on 01.02.21 at 8:16 pm

#73 KAC on 01.02.21 at 6:57 pm

*******************************

Yeah. Get over it! Trump lost.. so says the MSM so shall you believe.

Kamala Harris must believe it too. Since she has given up her congress seat right? Obama did it in Dec when he won in 2008. Here we are Jan 2nd and she still hasn’t relinquished her seat.

Unlike most people I have watched the state legislature hearings, read the reports and viewed the evidence the MSM refuses to cover.

If Biden won fair and square then Winnipeg is warm in February.

The US election is covered just like COVID. Whatever the MSM says is the truth must be the truth.

All other evidence of anything else is Tinfoil Hat Conspiracy theories. Nothing to see. They are crazy.

Ryan you were right. Trump is/did contest the election the problem was the MSM/Big Tech ignored it and so did the market. Hence no pull back.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 9:26 pm

@#70 Fishman
” But then the junkies use the reclining seats because they like to elevate their leg & shoot up in their ankles & toes. That leaves you cleaning up all the blood that gets splattered when they miss or whatever.”

++++
Reminds me of comedian/actor Will Ferrell in the movie The Other Guys….and…..the recovery of his stolen police car……..aka the Soup Kitchen…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhDbrs05m0U

#81 Sail Away on 01.02.21 at 9:34 pm

#78 cuke and tomato picker on 01.02.21 at 7:56 pm

Sail away your best bet is to retire young in a nice area
relax, enjoy and smile on your sweet success.

————–

Thanks, sometimes that sounds nice. But things are just too exciting being right in the middle of it all. And honestly, it’s not really work per se; more talking, organizing, coordinating, writing, strategizing- all of which I find endlessly fascinating.

Also… 4 years ago, at age 44, I kicked off a 40-year program for industry and financial domination. Only 36 years left now and so much to do! Trying to follow the bar set by Charlie Munger. Read, learn, explore… and especially ACT when the time is right. Only a tiny portion of people are willing to really pull the trigger when experience says it’s time. Because one never has all the info and sometimes intuition is wrong.

But when it works? Wow- there’s no better feeling in the world.

When Charlie retires, that’s the age I’ll aim to retire. He’s 97 now.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 9:36 pm

@#57 Sail Away
“CEF, Jaguar, Sailo,
No news, so let’s beat up on the homeless again.”
+++++

Not to worry Sailing…

Ponzie is the “Yang” to our “yin”.
What ever you say….he’ll say the opposite.

If I am finally stuck on an elevator with him….I guarantee he’ll complain about the noise emanating from my backside and light a match to find out where the noise is coming from……

The upside?
It’ll be BOTH our last posts.

#83 Kaleycat on 01.02.21 at 10:29 pm

For those of us that need a chuckle tonight:

https://www.selloutalbertans.com/

#84 Shelter in place on 01.02.21 at 10:29 pm

I followed NTR – Nutrien most of last year and pulled the trigger in November at $40. It quickly rose to $61 and change. Holding , it pays a nice dividend as I wait for eternity to unfold. You have to buy these super stocks before they ascend otherwise you’ll be priced out forever. Reading a balance sheet opposed to tea leaves pays off again. Plenty more on the list for ‘21.

However, this is very dangerous time for the retail buyer. I’m a straight up numbers investor. Give me the Covid file in the cold light of day and I’d tell you that things are going to get a lot worse, likely horrifically so, before there’s even a glimmer of “ better days ahead”.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-some-new-covid-data-for-patty-hajdu

If I told you that the boys in my club are talking about several years and millions more dead would you panic?” That’s why the MSM has coordinated an ignorance campaign. Read the data, it’s worse than ugly. Read the data for Canada, it’s catastrophic .

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:47 pm

@#77 millmech
That documentary “Seattle is Dying”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpAi70WWBlw

is Vancouver in a nutshell.

#86 kommykim on 01.02.21 at 11:16 pm

RE: #79 Gonkman on 01.02.21 at 8:16 pm
Kamala Harris must believe it too. Since she has given up her congress seat right? Obama did it in Dec when he won in 2008. Here we are Jan 2nd and she still hasn’t relinquished her seat.

=======================================

Who knows what corrupt, illegal, and evil schemes the Trumpers and rogue Republicans will try next to maintain their grip on power. Can you blame her for hedging her bets? She, like most sane people, know that Biden won fair and square but no one is 100% sure how far Trump and his minions will go to cheat and lie their way back into power.

#87 yorkville renter on 01.02.21 at 11:53 pm

#73 – very simple question for you… the areas that voted heavily for Biden, that were ‘counted weird’, always vote for the Dems. This election was no different.

So, was there a massive percentage shift in those areas to the Dems away from GOP? If not, and the percentages were similar, then what would you say accounts for the loss?

#88 the Jaguar on 01.03.21 at 12:12 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 9:36 pm

Re” previous thread”

I like this passive aggressive approach to dealing with those who have not the sense to actually address the problem at hand. ( The ‘Fart” scenario, CEF, lol).

The two links I posted were not about homelessness directly, but about the drug/overdose issue, though it can be acknowledged the two are linked re “cause and outcome. The links were provided only to show that provincial approaches to this serious issue differs, no big surprise to anyone who follows political mindset variance in BC versus Alberta.

If the Austrian ( who demonstrates conclusively why he would not be invited to the Shady Rest in Parksville ), would take the time he would find the links lay out the response of ‘treatment versus enablement’. Nobody was picking on the homeless, though the drug crisis is the ignition point for most of it. Somebody, somewhere, sometime, has to try a different approach. Alberta is throwing its money at rehabilitation and treatment versus paying for drugs for addicts. I fully support that approach.

The number of people, especially young people, who are adrift due to drug dependency is really shocking. Doesn’t matter what city or part of the country we live in. Like many other extremely serious problems we face in society, this one will not be solved by standing back, offering no new solutions, and being critical of others who identify the current mindset as ‘ineffective” and politically driven. My neighbour recently had a wild eyed explosive person come at him out of nowhere threatening his life with a screwdriver pulled from his clothing. No provocation. Just going about his daily errands, and then the unexpected threat against his life.

“No news, so let’s beat up on the homeless again.”……….It’s just not that simple.

There is complexity to this issue, and part of it involves people who are not homeless feeling safe on the streets where they live. Comes a time when turning the other cheek is a losing poker hand.

#89 westcdn on 01.03.21 at 12:53 am

The post – Jurassic Park movie was the mirror said that objects are closer than appear. Must go faster…

I read somewhere that the average woman is different from the average guy. There are outliners – makes the world go round. I keep it my mind but not much good came from it. i never figured out why i could be a hero one day and a zero the next. i got outscored by zeros but was my choice.

So, as i look at 2021 i see a good start. Hopefully i can renew my mortgage in the 2% range. My LOC carries a 2.95% which I am okay. i missed out on tech and others last year. Cash flow dominates my mind.

I am patient and will leap but not into the pits of hell. i have been there and crawled out. i could be richer if i didn’t make mistakes yet they get fewer as time goes on. I will take risks because i think i am smart??? Be prepared for the losses but i do pick winners that pay for the losers.

#90 Dr V on 01.03.21 at 1:02 am

77 Millmech – I think this is the sequel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WijoL3Hy_Bw

#91 Drinking on 01.03.21 at 1:28 am

I have always agreed with Ryan, Garth and other guest writers about staying invested, have done ok, no negative, but I sure am glad that I do have cash on the side for what is coming up in 2021.

#92 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 1:53 am

“The outcome was sealed long ago. These guys are just trying to save their political asses by feeding public ignorance and prejudice. There is no equivocation. Get over it. – Garth”

I was at first seduced by the graphs that purported to show that the Nov. 4th ballot drops were statistically impossible based on the Nov. 3rd in person voting, which they were. I now realize that the mail in ballots were a different animal than the in person votes and can’t necessarily be lumped together as apples to apples with the in person votes.

But in any case those ballot drops showed exactly where Trump’s team needed to look. It was only really 5 counties in 5 states. So far crickets.

Of course Trump’s team has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that there was fraud all over the place, as there is every election, but so far they haven’t found anything that would reverse the results. Dead people vote every year but not in numbers that would move the needle.

They were given all the time the constitution allows. Come Jan 6th Biden will be President Elect. So like Ryan my predictions weren’t perfect either, although this one was looking pretty good Nov. 3rd. But like covid, I didn’t predict the mail in voting behavior very well.

I would hope that Trump will concede on Jan. 7th. But that doesn’t mean he is going away. He’ll still be campaigning in Georgia, and might spend a few years campaigning election reform before retiring to Mar-a-Lago. And of course anytime someone holds a mic up to him he’ll be on TV. The reality TV star is not done pumping ratings just yet.

#93 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 2:03 am

#77 Penny Henny on 01.02.21 at 9:59 am
#42 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 7:23 pm
Another tip I would add to Garth’s post is a reminder to put as much of your wealth as you can into your TFSA and RRSP. President Harris is very likely to phase out the capital gains exemption and if she does Trudeau will follow suit.
//////////////////

At first Nonplused would not and could not admit that Trump lost the election.
Now he is referring to the new POTUS as President Harris.

You got issues man.

—————————–

Penny, my dear friend, Biden has gaffed on camera twice and called Harris “President Elect Harris” when the teleprompter clearly said “Vice-President Elect Harris”. That combined with Biden’s age leads me to make sarcastic and cynical jokes that Biden might not see out his term. I wish him no ill will but at some point you have to expect the elderly might have to step down.

Sorry if you didn’t get the joke. I mean it was a dark joke, for sure. But a joke none the less. It wouldn’t be the first time in history that the VP had to take over.

#94 Nonplused on 01.03.21 at 2:15 am

#67 Faron on 01.02.21 at 1:32 am
#59 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 10:04 pm

…he was winning in a land slide when we all went to bed on November 3rd. But then came the mail in ballots and I have to admit I did not predict the affects of that….

“Insipid and deaf….. Embarrassing.”

Yes you are. Remember the old Polish proverb that goes something like “if you point one finger at someone else, three point back at you”.

I think Trump is an egotistical buffoon. But I lean conservative and would never say vote Trudeau or Biden pretty much whoever they were up against. So you have your people who are “never Trumper’s” but trust me there are almost as many “never Biden’s”. And trust me here in Alberta we have plenty of “never Trudeau’s”. That doesn’t mean we are going to get anywhere calling each other names.

“Speak to the idea, not the man.”

#95 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:30 am

Glad I didn’t sell into the storm. Nominal value dropped by the better part of a quarter mil in USD through March. Right after my last flight JFK-LGW. In a way the velocity and magnitude of the drop was a blessing, made any sort of bailing out of the question! Converted more later in the year to my main equity ETF VWRD at $91, currently at $106. So, “up” for the year.

But with mixed feelings. I can relate to Sail – same age bracket, (but without the weird thing with the need for world domination.) Don’t need to work, but miss it. Some are hanging on for the day they can walk away from their job, I’m restless waiting for the day I can return to mine.

There’s only so many DIY projects, online courses, and fitness goals to complete.

#96 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:41 am

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.21 at 3:18 pm
#37 Lobster Man on 01.02.21 at 2:39 pm
Happy New Year, Everyone!

Here is a real life story – about moving…..

https://fintecology.com/2020/12/30/a-california-native-moved-to-canada-to-achieve-the-american-dream-business-insider/
———————————
The reverse brain drain will become more prevalent in the coming years, as more and more Americans are waking up and realizing it was just a “dream”

==================================

Sure. “More and more Americans”. Yeah, the floodgates of folks just like this should be opening soon. *eye roll*

A professional euphonium player and a luthier.

Totally typical American couple. Oh wait, one is Canadian, with a secure job in the government that is almost impossible to get.

There’s no way if they had both been American they would have considered moving to Halifax. Starting with the fact that the husband’s job is with the Canadian military.

It’s best not to support a statement about “reverse brain drain” with such utter outliers.

#97 KNOW IT ALL on 01.03.21 at 6:31 am

HaHa.

This is how Americans play “Where’s my money Mitch”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-majority-leader-mitch-mcconnells-louisville-home-vandalized

#98 earthboundmisfit on 01.03.21 at 9:05 am

I do not share your optimism for further upside potential for REITs. Bricks and mortar retail (malls) is soon to be history. Downtown office towers? Fuggedaboutit.

#99 millmech on 01.03.21 at 10:21 am

#85 CEF
All that money to buy the Sahota hotels and renovate them just to have them be destroyed again and again is insanity at its best, but I guess that is where the .5% fentanyl property tax levy is now going.
You would think that they would turn them into treatment centers so that if you wanted to get clean help would be right there. This will not happen and these rooms will be destroyed every week and will have to be refurbished on an ongoing schedule costing millions more.
Once the homeless get furbished rooms and meals and the word gets out that in Vancouver you get free room and board and are allowed to take from businesses up to $500/day before the police get involved, why not come here, they are doing better financially than a lot of highly educated people.
This is the way!

#100 Ryan Lewenza on 01.03.21 at 10:35 am

Stealth “ Thank you Ryan, When you get a chance could address the large disparity of returns between USA and the rest of the world in the last decade? For example S&P 500 returns were pretty much 2x emerging mkt, cdn, internationally developed.”

It’s largely due to the difference in sectors. It’s been all about technology in recent years and with US having the highest tech weighting it’s done the best. I did a post on this a few months ago. Read this for a fuller explanation. – Ryan L

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/08/01/tsx-deep-dive/

#101 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 01.03.21 at 10:38 am

Ryan, now that you’ve reached 100 comments, you will get your first 2021 performance bonus. Congratulations.

(Perhaps you could mention to Garth that the Amazons deserve similar consideration.)

Emma Zaun
Shop Steward
CUPE
(Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#102 Damifino on 01.03.21 at 10:38 am

#95 BillyBob

There’s only so many DIY projects, online courses, and fitness goals to complete.
———————————–

I retired in 2007. In my experience, such pursuits are rewarding and endless. There’s only so many days one should spend advancing the agenda of others.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 11:12 am

@#99 Millmech
“All that money to buy the Sahota hotels and renovate them just to have them be destroyed again and again is insanity at its best,”

+++

Yep.
Pump more millions into the problem year after year and its worse than ever… with the added benefit that…… the police are the ones handcuffed.

Nov saw the highest fentynal deaths for that month…. deaths up 89% from Nov 2019. Averaged about 5 a day for the month. I expect Dec numbers will be no different. 6500 dead in 5 years.

And Van City council want to be the first municipality in Canada to decriminalize possession of hard drugs….
how progressive.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/november-2020-drug-overdose-deaths-double-same-month-last-year-bc-coroners

City of Van new motto:

Drug dealers unite! Police take flight…

#104 Moscow Mitch on 01.03.21 at 12:00 pm

#97 KNOW IT ALL on 01.03.21 at 6:31 am
HaHa.

This is how Americans play “Where’s my money Mitch”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-majority-leader-mitch-mcconnells-louisville-home-vandalized

They seem to be under the mistaken impression that I care!

#105 Sail Away on 01.03.21 at 12:00 pm

#102 Damifino on 01.03.21 at 10:38 am
#95 BillyBob

There’s only so many DIY projects, online courses, and fitness goals to complete.

—————-

I retired in 2007. In my experience, such pursuits are rewarding and endless. There’s only so many days one should spend advancing the agenda of others.

—————-

If it’s a choice between retirement and working for someone else or doing something you don’t enjoy, then retirement is far and away the better choice.

On the other hand… if you’re doing what you enjoy, answer to nobody, and have capable people to do the actual work… why stop? Warren Buffett said he spends about 80% of his workday reading.

It’s hard to reach total world domination when retired.

#106 WTF on 01.03.21 at 12:14 pm

#79 Gonkster ”

Kamala Harris must believe it too. Since she has given up her congress seat right? Obama did it in Dec when he won in 2008. Here we are Jan 2nd and she still hasn’t relinquished her seat.

Unlike most people I have watched the state legislature hearings, read the reports and viewed the evidence the MSM refuses to cover.

—————————————————————–

Errr Genius,

Harris and Obama were BOTH in the Senate, not Congress. No doubt your additional “research” is equally accurate. Dear God, where do you people come from?

#107 MF on 01.03.21 at 12:33 pm

6 BillyBob on 01.03.21 at 4:41 am

I see this story playing out all the time.

When something happens commonly, it’s no longer an outlier.

MF

#108 Russ on 01.03.21 at 12:40 pm

westcdn on 01.03.21 at 12:53 am

The post – Jurassic Park movie was the mirror said that objects are closer than appear. Must go faster…

I read somewhere that the average woman is different from the average guy. There are outliners – makes the world go round. I keep it my mind but not much good came from it. i never figured out why i could be a hero one day and a zero the next. i got outscored by zeros but was my choice…
===========================

From the self-help section of the deplorables:

A middle-aged friend was asking about women, let’s call him Murray.

“Hi Murray,

I don’t know where you will find someone who is qualified to tell you what it is that women want. Other than, “all of it” but the catch is not at the same time AND there are penalties if you try to guess and get the right thing at the wrong time, or the wrong thing at any time. :)”

#109 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.21 at 12:56 pm

#106 WTF on 01.03.21 at 12:14 pm
#79 Gonkster ”

Kamala Harris must believe it too. Since she has given up her congress seat right? Obama did it in Dec when he won in 2008. Here we are Jan 2nd and she still hasn’t relinquished her seat.

Unlike most people I have watched the state legislature hearings, read the reports and viewed the evidence the MSM refuses to cover.

—————————————————————–

Errr Genius,

Harris and Obama were BOTH in the Senate, not Congress. No doubt your additional “research” is equally accurate. Dear God, where do you people come from?
…………………….

The United States Congress or U.S. Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States and consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 1:09 pm

Well 2021 is off to a good start Garth….

Confirmed Adele sightings…

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/767646-adele-marked-new-year-with-an-alcoholic-drink-and-a-smoke-with-pals

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.21 at 1:53 pm

190mm ( 7.5 inches) of rain in Nov.
210mm (8.25 inches) of rain in Dec.
30mm ( 1 inch) of rain in the first two days of Jan.
and its currently POURING rain…. 100mm predicted over the next few days

https://globalnews.ca/news/7550803/bc-weather-forecast-new-years-day-2021/

Its shaping up to be an even soggier Jan. in the Lower Brainland.

#112 Stealth on 01.03.21 at 2:20 pm

#100 Ryan Lewenza on 01.03.21 at 10:35 am
Stealth “ Thank you Ryan, When you get a chance could address the large disparity of returns between USA and the rest of the world in the last decade? For example S&P 500 returns were pretty much 2x emerging mkt, cdn, internationally developed.”

It’s largely due to the difference in sectors. It’s been all about technology in recent years and with US having the highest tech weighting it’s done the best. I did a post on this a few months ago. Read this for a fuller explanation. – Ryan L

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/08/01/tsx-deep-dive/

=========

Thank you for the link Ryan.

#113 Bill on 01.03.21 at 2:27 pm

Good one Ryan.
I think we are heading for a volatile year with the markets.
The needles pinned to Greed for sentiment now.
The Bay and another zillion interconneted are going down.
We aint out of the woods by a long shot.

Jeesh when I scan the comments if and when I show up it would appear some have no life / friends…arguing or what have you…weird.

#114 Triplenet on 01.03.21 at 2:30 pm

#88 Jaguar
FYI:
The Shady Rest is on the beach in Qualicum Beach……not Parksville.

#115 Tommy on 01.03.21 at 2:35 pm

All I want for 2021 is my free speech back. I also want to be able to participate in adult conversations online without receiving death threats or implied threats of violence.

#116 Tommy on 01.03.21 at 2:42 pm

DELETED

#117 JB on 01.04.21 at 2:07 am

DELETED. Anti-vax.