The plan

New Year ’s Day. The old calendar is trashed. Nobody will regret seeing the butt-end of 2020.

But wait. How did the worst year in a generation (or two) treat investors? What’s the score coming out of this satanic mess of a dumpster fire annum?

As you know, 2020 started off all shiny and hopeful, then collapsed in a virus-induced funk. Stock markets were whacked as the economy shut down, culminating in the fastest bear market descent in history. Equities plunged more than 30% in just a few weeks, and capitulated on March 23rd.

Meanwhile governments started turning on the spending spigots, central banks crashed interest rates as never before and immediately began quantitative easing operations. That meant gobbling up government bonds to inject oodles of liquidity into the economy, avoiding a 2008-style freeze-up, and also suppressing bond yields to keep loan costs in the ditch.

This blog’s advice at that time was to keep your perspective.

On the day we now know the market hit the bottom, here’s what was published:

First, governments and bankers are going nuts trying to mitigate this. They have only started. There is absolutely no fiscal or monetary discipline at play here. Society will be awash in liquidity, complete with unprecedented corporate bailouts and social support payments. Remember that the US president is up for election and our guy leads a minority government. Expect no brakes.

Second, pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.

Third, pandemics pass. So do oil wars. You know this. We all know it.

Finally, we are nearing capitulation. Just read the comments on this blog over the last few days. The number of people forecasting millions of bodies and years of 1930s-style depression is stunning. The bottom comes when most folks shed hope. It seems we’re not far off.

Not exactly prescient (nobody knew then the virus would still be with us in 2021 and the spending boom would have to wait for a vaccine), but close enough. The advice was to stay invested, have faith that stimulus measures would work, not go to cash, grow a spine and ignore the noise.

Now, more than nine months later, the pandemic is worse than ever but financial markets have fully recovered even as bond yields stay depressed and the economy’s being shut down once again. Yes, stimulus worked. All $20 trillion of it around the world. Plus we now have vaccines and can forecast with more certainty how 2021 will play out. The US presidential circus is behind us. There’s a massive tech boom sweeping markets and society – spurred on by the pandemic. And an entire new generation of hoodie investors has been gushing money into financial assets.

Ah yes, there are risks. And you should expect a boatload of volatility. Biden may raise corporate taxes. Covid is mutating and could take longer to corral, doing serious employment damage. The airlines might fold. China might invade Taiwan, now that it gelded HK. Trump could still flip out and totally poison the new admin. And the hoodies could push valuations to video-game levels and hasten a mash-up on Wall Street.

Despite that, there’s giddiness in the air. Listen to the latest from veteran analyst Ed Pennock:

One-Third of workloads are on the cloud. By 2022 that will be more than 50% Amazon, Microsoft, and Salesforce leading the way. 5G is finally upon us. That’s another monumental “Refresh Cycle”. And the Internet of things. With that in front of us, we can’t see anything but another good year for stocks. Perhaps even very good. Then add to that,the Productivety explosion brought on by this WFH.  Add Machine Learning and AI. This is the biggest train we’ve ever seen.  It’s leaving the Station. Get on Board. Enjoy the Ride.

Well, nobody knows what comes next. Just like a year ago. That’s exactly why you should have a properly-weighted, balanced, ETF-based, diversified, global and liquid portfolio and stick with it. Rebalance when those weightings are dislodged. Otherwise keep your mitts off. The 60/40 plan that we detailed here returned 7.5% in 2020, or slightly more than planned. The five-year average is 8%. The ten-year is 7.4%.

There’s already enough in the world to worry about. Don’t screw this up.

90 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 01.01.21 at 3:08 pm

The chips are “ALL-IN”.

Go 2021 Go Go Go!!!

#2 Habitt on 01.01.21 at 3:14 pm

Thank you for the wise words again Garth. I am curious what your take is on this Productivety explosion brought on by this WFH. Happy new year.

#3 UCC on 01.01.21 at 3:16 pm

Really disappointed in the TSX compared to Nasdaq, S&P trails again. Most of my gains came from other countries.

#4 Erik mtl on 01.01.21 at 3:17 pm

Happy New Year everybody. Even you TurnerNation.

Thanks for writing every day Garth and co.

Balanced and diversified, for one’s diet and one’s financial portfolio. Thank you for the weekly reminder. I still have a bit of bitcoin though.

#5 Debtslavecreator on 01.01.21 at 3:26 pm

Happy New Year Garth
Thanks for your info and point of view
2021 will be better. I expect a nice healthy correction of 10-20% in the next few weeks upon which I hope to go shopping
Canadian RE is an out of control freight train.
BofC very likely to lower rates .10-.20 if the loonie sticks its head over .80
But I see rates bottoming in Q1
By year end 21, 5 year fixed likely over 3
Energy will be the best performing sector
Go Canada go

#6 Happy New Year on 01.01.21 at 3:28 pm

Great picture Garth. Are you changing the blog pictures from static to pulsating? Goes along with the 2021 theme get on that train, we’re moving!

Thanks again for the blog and somber second thought.
I subscribe to Ed Pennock great daily letter. Thanks for that recommendation!

You are correct we have lots of risks and lots of worry, but then again so has years past.

Cheers!

#7 Bill on 01.01.21 at 3:29 pm

Happy New Year Garth and all Canadians. Love the pic.
Ferries shut again to Powell. Another winter storm going down thankfully no shoveling required.
The way to dig out of the economic hole?
1 Economic growth …very little I think
2 Raising taxes….yup
3 Inflation ….yup
4 Reduction of government services ….will never happen requires a revolution.

Markets seemed to be poised to have correction soon.
Precious metals broke out. Most off my miners are 200% +++ since March and are pointing higher.
Thanks to huge deficits and busted monetary policies.
The trends your friend.

#8 The TRUMP Pandemic/Depression on 01.01.21 at 3:36 pm

2021 hello…

#9 Winterpeg on 01.01.21 at 3:39 pm

Happy New year Felix

#10 zoey on 01.01.21 at 3:39 pm

Agree 100%, should be another great year in my field of technology.

Lets not forget however how the markets always take a hissy fit when stimulus is removed …when ever that happens. Buy the dip I guess.

#11 Honest Realtor on 01.01.21 at 3:40 pm

And in all likelihood a terrific boom year ahead for homeowners.

I expect an increase of close to 15% this year in the GTA alone. Outside 416/905, with WFH, prices should go up close to 30% in good smaller cities and towns.

What a shame and social reversal that would be. – Garth

#12 Felix on 01.01.21 at 3:44 pm

That dogawfully dumb mutt has no idea what misery the cat has in store for it.

#13 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 3:45 pm

#11 Honest Realtor on 01.01.21 at 3:40 pm
And in all likelihood a terrific boom year ahead for homeowners.

I expect an increase of close to 15% this year in the GTA alone. Outside 416/905, with WFH, prices should go up close to 30% in good smaller cities and towns.

What a shame and social reversal that would be. – Garth

—————————————————————-

Its not a shame if you profit from it.

Ah, I forgot it’s all about you. My apologies. – Garth

#14 Savvy Millennial Investor on 01.01.21 at 3:48 pm

Garth, I know some will see this as unwise, but I can’t help seeing 2021 as a huge chance not to be missed, kind of like the dot-com bust, but in reverse.

I am loading up on bitcoin fund, shopify, FAANG and a few others. My goal is to turn $225,000 into $2,000,000 by October. Then I’ll buy some property when prices drop.

2021 feels like a ‘can’t miss’ year to me and my colleagues.

Gambling is not investing. Don’t be greedy and foolish. – Garth

#15 Ken M. on 01.01.21 at 3:49 pm

#3 UCC on 01.01.21 at 3:16 pm
Really disappointed in the TSX compared to Nasdaq, S&P trails again. Most of my gains came from other countries.
—————-
Canada is something like 3 percent of the world market cap wise.

#16 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 3:56 pm

#3 UCC on 01.01.21 at 3:16 pm

Really disappointed in the TSX compared to Nasdaq, S&P trails again. Most of my gains came from other countries.

————-

Wait… you truly believed the TSX would outperform the US indexes when it (the TSX) has never, ever, not once over any significant span of time, done so in history?

If it’s any consolation, the TSX did exactly what it has always done: followed the US indexes while significantly underperforming them. Same-same.

I’m glad we had this talk.

#17 Carla on 01.01.21 at 4:00 pm

New email address, but still the same appreciation for all that you do for this blog, Garth.

Happy New Year, everyone!

#18 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 4:04 pm

#14 Savvy Millennial Investor on 01.01.21 at 3:48 pm

Garth, I know some will see this as unwise, but I can’t help seeing 2021 as a huge chance not to be missed, kind of like the dot-com bust, but in reverse.

I am loading up on bitcoin fund, shopify, FAANG and a few others. My goal is to turn $225,000 into $2,000,000 by October. Then I’ll buy some property when prices drop.

2021 feels like a ‘can’t miss’ year to me and my colleagues.

————

Haha. It’s good that you’re savvy. Self-coined?

#19 Tony Baloney on 01.01.21 at 4:08 pm

I held steady, and my half mil invested 100% in VFV and VXC this year returned around 15%.

I’m 45 and optimistic, and wary of the whole 60/40 balance, or any balance at all, really, for now at least. And anyway doesn’t Warren Buffett advise us amateurs to just invest in the S&P and ignore everything else?

#20 paulo on 01.01.21 at 4:19 pm

The expectation of massive pent up demand and spending may prove to be mostly wishful thinking. travel will likely not really recover until 2022 or later. many people with plenty of time and goverment money in hand have done the home improvement thing and car sales have been robust thanks to incentives and good deals pulling sales forward. the high level of household debt unrealistically high real estate and rental costs will suck a ever increasing amount of after tax dollars out of peoples hands and the big surprise, likely millions of jobs that have actually permanently vanished will create a long term unemployment issue. than we have the 2 big elephants in the room: Big time tax increases and even bigger time inflation to come along with its side effects. just saying invest accordingly and do not expect any free bonuses.

#21 Dolce Vita on 01.01.21 at 4:24 pm

Hope is the last to die.

[La speranza è l’ultima a morire]

They say that here in Il Bel Paese. And I am full of hope.

Though I do not believe 2021 healthwise will be much better than 2020. Financially same thing, which is good provided some group does not do something stupid to mess matters up globally as what happened in 2007-9.

I have my reasons, they are mine yet I remain hopeful.

#22 Dolce Vita on 01.01.21 at 4:31 pm

My last comment on why there is hope, @Twitter said it best 6h ago:

“the bar is low, 2021”

#23 Tbone on 01.01.21 at 4:46 pm

I’m up 14.2 % for 2020 .
And that’s with [email protected] with mutual funds .
Along with my portfolio of stocks and mutual funds and a small oil etf .

It’s not a race. Predictability is a good thing. – Garth

#24 Linda on 01.01.21 at 4:47 pm

We stayed invested. Yes, our portfolios dropped, but by the end of 2020 the losses had become gains. Fortuitously, neither of us ‘needed’ to draw on our investments to cover the monthly bills. So from a fiscal perspective, 2020 was a win.

2021? Well, won’t be tossing the mask any time soon. Am hopeful that we will be able to travel ‘for fun’ again before the end of 2021. Also think that the markets are poised to perform & that the economy is going to take off once the virus looks to be under control. Fingers crossed!

#25 Brian Ripley on 01.01.21 at 4:49 pm

I have updated my monthly charts on the GLOBAL pandemic with the December data:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/pandemic-update4022152

% Deaths of Total Cases = 2%
​% Recovereds of Total Cases = 69%

% Increase per Month
Cases = 31%
Deaths = 24%
Recovereds = 3%

% Increase in Last 6 Months
Cases = 371%
Deaths = 167%
Recovereds = 430%

This global pandemic continues to rage on.

But there has been good news in 2020. Here is a list of “99 Good News Stories From 2020 You Probably Didn’t Hear About”
https://futurecrun.ch/99-good-news-2020

#26 Orecchiette With Tuna, White Beans & Radicchio on 01.01.21 at 4:56 pm

I rebalanced from 60/40 to 70/30 six months ago which worked out nicely. Sounds like I should stick with it through 2021.

#27 Eco Capitalist on 01.01.21 at 5:00 pm

Happy New Year Garth and blog dogs!

2021 carries weight for me; I turn 50 this year. My retirement horizon is but a decade away. That wouldn’t be possible if I hadn’t discovered this blog eight years ago; it changed my perspective on money and investing.

Thank you Garth for the knowledge you freely share.

#28 2020 was AWESOME! on 01.01.21 at 5:05 pm

2020 was AWESOME!

I’m tired of people trashing 2020. Just the love-making alone in lockdown was EPIC. Aren’t We Naughty made a bundle off of us. Summer weather was amazing. Fresh snow on Christmas morning for first time since I can’t remember when. 2020 was AMAZING! Quit trashing it!

And if you have any brains temper your 2021 expectations. Plenty of businesses will fold. The deferral cliff is still to be faced. Jobs will be an issue. Virus is mutating. Vaccine has tons of unknowns the experts are finally admitting to, including the initial trials themselves not being designed to answer some key questions about length of immunity, quality of immunity if second dose isn’t delivered 28 days later, or at all. So don’t hype 2020 being over, because things never live up to the hype.

And remember – it is Covid-19 not Covid-20.

#29 New Year's Resolution on 01.01.21 at 5:20 pm

My New Year’s resolution is to only read the blog… and not the hideously disappointing comment section.
And under no circumstances will I contribute to this pathetic blog with my own comments.

Wish me well!

#30 Brian Ripley on 01.01.21 at 5:32 pm

re:

#25 Brian Ripley on 01.01.21 at 4:49 pm

“Recovereds” should have read 35% increase M/M not 3%

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/pandemic-update4022152

% Deaths of Total Cases = 2%
​% Recovereds of Total Cases = 69%

% Increase per Month
Cases = 31%
Deaths = 24%
Recovereds = 35%

% Increase in Last 6 Months
Cases = 371%
Deaths = 167%
Recovereds = 430%

#31 Flop... on 01.01.21 at 5:34 pm

Is it safe to come out yet?

Been hiding under the bed.

Just when you thought 2020 couldn’t have gotten any worse, my wife forced me last night to watch Jennifer Lopez butcher an innocent bystander Aerosmith classic in the middle of an empty Times Square.

Traumatic.

A million people were spared the direct visual trauma due to COVID protocols, and enforcement by New Yorks finest.

2020, thou had little remorse…

M46BC

#32 Flop... on 01.01.21 at 5:38 pm

O.k, I’ll concede, it’s 2021, got all year to get used to it, I guess.

Time to come up with a new tag-team nickname for Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland.

Chuckles & Cackles…

M46BC

#33 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 5:41 pm

#21 Dolce Vita on 01.01.21 at 4:24 pm

Hope is the last to die.

————-

Yes! A case in point is the rat experiment by Johns Hopkins professor Curt Richter in the 1950’s:

First, he put rats in a basin filled with water until they drowned. It took an average of 15 minutes.

Next, he put rats in the water and let them swim for a few minutes, then lifted them out for a few minutes before returning them to the water. These ones swam for… wait for it… 60 hours!

The rats were hoping for another rescue. Didn’t come, but that’s the power of hope.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/kidding-ourselves/201405/the-remarkable-power-hope%3famp

#34 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 5:47 pm

#29 New Year’s Resolution on 01.01.21 at 5:20 pm

My New Year’s resolution is to only read the blog… and not the hideously disappointing comment section.

———–

Sometimes one must support the efforts of others to foster general well-being.

I mean, heck: how would you feel if your husband/wife swore off hideously disappointing marital relations?

#35 Roial1 on 01.01.21 at 5:56 pm

GO CANADA GO!!!

#36 fishman on 01.01.21 at 6:16 pm

I love these guys that write in to the comment section & say they can’t stand the comment section . And they’ll never read the comment section. Last week one of the fishermen down at the docks was going was going off about the regulars. calling them a bunch of greedy, alcoholic, dope smoking, reprobates. He finished his rant by declaring that if he didn’t have to tie up here he’d be gone. He didn’t like one single person down there. I told him its a marriage made in heaven, you don’t like anybody down here & nobody down here likes you.

#37 the jaguar on 01.01.21 at 6:17 pm

Any fool knows dogs are afraid of cats, not the other way around. Cats are like Russians. Don’t underestimate or mess with them.
They will come at you with everything they have got.
For satisfaction.

#38 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 6:24 pm

Since we’re starting off the year under pandemic lockdown here is a good review of the Pfizer-BioNTech And Moderna Covid-19 vaccines, side effects etc. Note that the side effects seem pretty mild compared to getting a good case of covid. Ingredients are even listed and there is no mercury.

http://www.yourdestinationnow.com/2021/01/health-expert-compares-pfizer-biontech.html

And here is a WHO guy talking about the “big one” I was talking about some time back:

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-bigger-pandemic-covid-coming

Not very upbeat except that we might be better prepared next time.

Cheers!

#39 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 6:27 pm

#14 Savvy Millennial Investor on 01.01.21 at 3:48 pm

“I am loading up on bitcoin fund, shopify, FAANG and a few others. My goal is to turn $225,000 into $2,000,000 by October. Then I’ll buy some property when prices drop.”

Who knew it could be so easy?

#40 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 6:46 pm

#13 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 3:45 pm
#11 Honest Realtor on 01.01.21 at 3:40 pm
And in all likelihood a terrific boom year ahead for homeowners.

I expect an increase of close to 15% this year in the GTA alone. Outside 416/905, with WFH, prices should go up close to 30% in good smaller cities and towns.

What a shame and social reversal that would be. – Garth

—————————————————————-

Its not a shame if you profit from it.

Ah, I forgot it’s all about you. My apologies. – Garth

———————————————

Like you didn’t fall into the 1% by taking advantage of opportunities offered to you by a capitalistic society.

All of a sudden we forget how we got to where we are today right?

This is a ZERO SUM game. You won because someone else lost.

Good one though.

Try harder next time.

This blog has always worried about housing affordability. Wishing prices higher so you can profit is nothing to brag about. – Garth

#41 zoey on 01.01.21 at 7:12 pm

I think the fleeing to the burbs will end as people realize life there is a complete yawn for the $$ and the vax is here. Also as rates are forced higher by the bond market the froth for over priced RE will diminish. Not to forget the trail of the unemployed and folded businesses left in the virus’ wake. It will be interesting to see just how the BoC and JT react going forward … Stimulus doesn’t last forever the music for RE will slow considerably unless the economy actually recovers without them propping everything and everyone up.

#42 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 7:23 pm

Another tip I would add to Garth’s post is a reminder to put as much of your wealth as you can into your TFSA and RRSP. President Harris is very likely to phase out the capital gains exemption and if she does Trudeau will follow suit.

I don’t think the exemption on primary residences is going anywhere because that would be too political and affect too many voters, and is difficult to justify if mortgage interest is not tax deductible, but all other asset classes are probably in the crosshairs. Trudeau reducing the annual contribution limit on TFSA’s may have been foreshadowing the plans to capture more taxes from capital gains. It makes sense that if that is the plan the TFSA is not a program that aligns with the new direction, which is probably why it was given a haircut. More haircuts are possible. The RRSP contribution limit may also be reduced.

It is the most politically expedient plan. The 1% make most of their wealth in the form of capital gains (take Gates or Bezos for example) so the 99% will love the idea (even though the mechanics of it mean the tax is not payable until the asset is sold).

Of course these days it seems like the 99% make most of their wealth through capital gains on their house too, but I don’t expect them to volunteer to help out. The taxes will be directed at the assets of the 1%.

So, if you have a vacation or investment property with large capital gains that you aren’t too keen on anymore, time is running out. It is possible that your effective tax rate on those properties when you sell is going from 25% to 50%+ in the not too distant future. Maybe it is your mom and dad’s cabin on the lake that they bought 40 years ago for next to nothing, but they are elderly now and the clock is ticking. Get it sold now while there is still time.

They may try an impose capital gains taxes on primary residences too, but I think if they do it will be a progressive thing sort of like income taxes so that the majority of people are largely unaffected and it targets primarily the 1%. It will look like an “expensive home” tax based on arbitrary assessments of what a “normal home” costs.

Revolution is here. The 99% hate the 1%, always have, no matter how legitimately they built their fortunes. Trump held the revolution off by 4 years but now, especially if the Democrats are successful in Georgia, the revolution begins in full swing. My advice is to get out of the way as best as you can. The secret to surviving a riot is to not be near it.

Just as accurate as your call for a Trump landslide. – Garth

#43 Ustabe on 01.01.21 at 7:23 pm

#36 fishman on 01.01.21 at 6:16 pm

I love these guys that write in to the comment section & say they can’t stand the comment section . And they’ll never read the comment section…

Superseded only by those who call on Garth to ban so and so.

Emblematic of today’s sturdy conservative man.

#44 Breaking News on 01.01.21 at 7:26 pm

This just in…

CBC – Tracy Allard, a politician who is currently serving as a Member of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta, resigned over the weekend as the details of her recent trip to Hawaii became known. Allard, suffering from the same egocentric and self-aggrandizing issues as Ontario MPP Rod Phillips, is also accused of attempting to deceive her constituents as to her whereabouts during her vacation. Ms. Allard was not available for more lies.

At the time of this press release. Alberta Premiere Jason Kenney was living in his own world and not yet aware that he was going to ask her to resign.

#45 Felix's mother on 01.01.21 at 7:35 pm

#37 the jaguar on 01.01.21 at 6:17 pm

Any fool knows dogs are afraid of cats, not the other way around. Cats are like Russians. Don’t underestimate or mess with them.
They will come at you with everything they have got.
For satisfaction

For heaven’s sake Felix… You remember what happened last time you went off your meds! Mommy wasn’t happy with you after you filled the cat’s litterbox!

#46 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 7:36 pm

#40 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 6:46 pm

“This is a ZERO SUM game. You won because someone else lost.”

The economy is not a “zero sum game”. Poker is a “zero sum game” but the economy is not. The economic gains may not be equally distributed, but by exploiting resources and the miracles of labor and technology, the economy has produced gains for everyone, at least in the first world where Adam Smith style capitalism has been deployed. The economy is a system where everyone gains, just some more than others.

My grandfather probably knew what a Slurpee was, but he never had cable or wifi or even a computer, despite being a big electronics buff. I bet you have all of those things and more that my grandfather never did. It isn’t all about the money. Which, I think I mentioned before, isn’t real.

#47 Heather on 01.01.21 at 7:38 pm

I live in the Okanagan. I checked my property assessment today. It went down by $15,000. A property in Coldstream dropped by $53,000 from last year. I don’t call that a hot real estate market.

#48 "NUTS!" on 01.01.21 at 7:41 pm

“#14 Savvy Millennial Investor- feels like a ‘can’t miss’ year to me and my colleagues.”

“Gambling is not investing. Don’t be greedy and foolish. – Garth”

Garth, 100% agree, and perhaps this is what I find most perplexing. There has long been an element of uninformed day-trading, however, the forces they inflicted were inconsequential at best. But, what I’ve been witnessing this past year with the advent of Robin Hood and others is rather unnerving. These actions have indeed influenced the market with unsubstantiated movements. Cool companies now have valuations based on their popularity rather than basic fundamentals. Ferarri is a great example, impressive increase in value in the last 9 months for simply being a cool brand. I fail to understand the long term affect this will have on the market.

#49 JM on 01.01.21 at 7:47 pm

Happy New Year, it really does seem better now than it was last March. I remember reading that post on day 3 of a 14 day isolation. Thanks Garth, for another great year of rational posts.

#50 Uncle Pennybags on 01.01.21 at 7:52 pm

Have you folks not played my university level instructional game “Monopoly”?

It is here that I prove that giving everyone $200 every time they pass go (UBI being the modern interpretation), wild inflation that bankrupts everyone but the most savvy and lucky occurs. Also threw in the monopolistic behavior to show how that drives the inflation along.

Government handouts combined with monopolies and oligopolies will bankrupt most of the players. But I didn’t mean for my game to become a “how to” book like “1984” has become. It was meant as a warning (as was “1984”).

Anyway, we are headed along a route similar to the “Highlander” movie, where only one can win. That movie was inspired by my game by the way. But both my game and the movie were warnings, that folks have ignored.

#51 Canadian Moose on 01.01.21 at 8:08 pm

Thank you for another great year of advice, financial too! Looking forward to a healthier year, favourable gains and holidays in heat! Maybe?

God Bless and Happy New Year!

#52 millmech on 01.01.21 at 8:17 pm

Well my faith has been restored in the the Govt as it has only taken 10 months of viral outbreak for the brain trust to come up with testing for covid on incoming travelers.
Just waiting for the efficient rollout of vaccinations as they also have had 10 months to get the system in place and perfected.
Remember this is a government that was basically perplexed and shut down by a stack of pallets on railroad tracks, we should all be thankful that it has not occurred with this issue yet.

#53 mark on 01.01.21 at 8:32 pm

I kind of like the comment section.
Unfortunately my little voice says more of the same this year as last………… will not be great and maybe worst.

Lets hope not, everyone is so tired of all of this……….

#54 Russ on 01.01.21 at 8:33 pm

New Year’s Resolution on 01.01.21 at 5:20 pm

My New Year’s resolution is to only read the blog… and not the hideously disappointing comment section.
And under no circumstances will I contribute to this pathetic blog with my own comments.

Wish me well!
==================

Hey NYR,

I wish you well on the other resolutions.

It looks like your first resolution failed! Bigly.

TIC… but you knew that, correct?

Cheers, R

#55 Faron on 01.01.21 at 8:38 pm

#31 Flop… on 01.01.21 at 5:34 pm

…watch Jennifer Lopez butcher an innocent bystander Aerosmith classic in the middle of an empty Times Square…

Love in an elevator? Are you sure Fartzy wasn’t involved somehow? Everyone defines love differently.

Happy 2021 all. Did the annual slog to the top of a local “mountain” in biting wind and a serious downpour. Washed the sins of 2020 right off methinks.

#56 joblo on 01.01.21 at 9:02 pm

“We are all in this together”
BS.
I’m gonna puke

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/premier-kenney-declines-to-discipline-alberta-mlas-over-international-travel-minister-apologizes-for-hawaii-trip-1.5250579

#57 Disappointed on 01.01.21 at 9:56 pm

#34 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 5:47 pm

“I mean, heck: how would you feel if your husband/wife swore off hideously disappointing marital relations?”

Have you tried couples therapy?

#58 George on 01.01.21 at 10:03 pm

Really disappointed in the TSX compared to Nasdaq, S&P trails again. Most of my gains came from other countries.
……..

the TSX is approx 4% of global market. A chronic underperformer. If not for tax perks in a registered account, i’d have approx 4% allocation, haha!

#59 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 10:04 pm

“Just as accurate as your call for a Trump landslide. – Garth”

Well, we will see what happens, but a reduction in the capital gains exemption doesn’t seem that far out there these days. And I don’t see what harm comes from maxing your TFSA and RRSP just in case.

As for the Trump thing, well he was winning in a land slide when we all went to bed on November 3rd. But then came the mail in ballots and I have to admit I did not predict the affects of that. Anyway I can admit now that I got the final results wrong. The US process is pretty much complete and it looks like 99.9% it will be Biden.

#60 Gg on 01.01.21 at 10:31 pm

Nonplused
The capital gains tax increase will hardly move the needle
It’s likely it won’t raise any income for government at the end of the day (from the 1% crowd) and hurt the 99% who need to sell shares way more than the 1% who will simply choose not to sell shares

Ultimately those with money will simply decide to leave. I’m in that camp
If you’re gonna tax capital gains to the Max I’ll just move to a country where my future capital gains are not siphoned off. The one time hit to all my capital is just that a one time hit.

I love Canada. But for the last 10 years I’ve felt like I’m the problem and in the cross hairs of every politician

#61 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 10:37 pm

#57 Disappointed on 01.01.21 at 9:56 pm
#34 Sail Away on 01.01.21 at 5:47 pm

“I mean, heck: how would you feel if your husband/wife swore off hideously disappointing marital relations?”

————–

Have you tried couples therapy?

————–

Yes! We visited the Savvy Millennial Therapist. He said all his friends think the latest fad of outdoor Yukon northern lights (ahem) relations will fix us up.

No downside! Well… except frostbite… as Chuck ‘Stubby’ Jones can attest.

#62 Russ on 01.01.21 at 10:39 pm

Happy New Year again, you dog gone blog dogs.

Anyhow, to set aside mask wearing differences I ask you to check out this news vid, personal interest story.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5250180

note the time he is in a grocery store… if a cowboy can wear a mask when it is required so the ladies are not upset or frightened then all you girly guys can wear one too.

No discussion about effectiveness, etc. is to be tolerated, just do the chivalry thing.

Cheers, R

#63 Kev on 01.01.21 at 11:23 pm

Go check the list of upcoming auctions on the AbleAuctions website in Vancouver. The fallout is just beginning. Headlines have already started in the US… 50% of health workers afraid to take the vaccine. Gliding optimistically into the new year like a bird towards a window

#64 the Jaguar on 01.02.21 at 12:33 am

#45 Felix’s mother on 01.01.21 at 7:35 pm
#37 the jaguar on 01.01.21 at 6:17 pm

Any fool knows dogs are afraid of cats, not the other way around. Cats are like Russians. Don’t underestimate or mess with them.
They will come at you with everything they have got.
For satisfaction

For heaven’s sake Felix… You remember what happened last time you went off your meds! Mommy wasn’t happy with you after you filled the cat’s litterbox!_______________

This makes no sense. Jaguar is not Felix, though I share his/her fondness of cats. I like dogs, too.
I would bet the farm that Felix resides in Ottawa, Montreal, or GTA, certainly not Alberta where anyone who gives a crap re any previous post of mine knows I live.

I suspect Felix’s mother might reside in Alberta, but in no way is an “Albertan”. Your residency status will never grant you this status. Your attitude surely excludes you from any serious consideration.

Jaguar will go on record as a supporter of cats. They are worthy of our attention and love.
I think the poster’s usual ID begins with “D” and ends with “G”. Shame on you.

#65 westcdn on 01.02.21 at 1:17 am

I got divorced. It was a story. I found her journals and she was dying from feeling alone. I admit i am not social and when her career took off she had lots of young men currying her favor.

Whether if worked out for her and i don’t care. My buddy said she was hanging with “successful” guys – hurt but i got over it. It helped my daughters care about me and have grandchildren. I am surprised how much they seem to be like me but that may just be wishful thinking.

#66 Long Sliver Slim on 01.02.21 at 1:23 am

The TSX Index is 243 dogs and 57 great companies that have doubled triple and quadrupled in 5 years. Moral of the story, stop leaning on index investing as a comparison to anything.

If you have 50 companies that pay dividends you’ll always beat the index. If you have a single superstock in your quiver you’ll beat 90% of all managers. Garth says to stay away from BNN, that I agree with. Learn to read a balance sheet instead.

Ex: CP Rail has risen from $80 to over $400 in five years, all while paying a regular dividend. People who bark about risk don’t know what risk management is. It’s not balancing bonds with an equally lackluster bond. Risk management is buying great companies that even Trudeau can’t kill.

Imagine what a four bagger does to your average return. Imagine having ten or twenty like it. Stay broke if you want to. But you’ll never get rich by sleeping under the bed.

#67 Faron on 01.02.21 at 1:32 am

#59 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 10:04 pm

…he was winning in a land slide when we all went to bed on November 3rd. But then came the mail in ballots and I have to admit I did not predict the affects of that….

Insipid and deaf. The blue shift was foreseeable and foreseen for months and widely reported. The precise product of a candidate who undermined faith in mail in voting among his clownish supporters. A more savvy version of Trump would have had the self restraint and vision to do the opposite. He’s failing again in GA campaigning where there is evidence dems are turning out in droves. Trump is an utter joke yet you continue to align yourself with him. Embarrassing.

#68 NSNG on 01.02.21 at 1:37 am

DELETED. Anti-vax.

#69 Crazed and a little confused on 01.02.21 at 6:41 am

Ya know garth
Maybe you are getting old and tired of being a contrarion.
Heck we are all getting old. It pretty blatantly obvious that the world govt will print whatever money is needed to stimulate economy.
Us debt clock 27 trillion
Canada debt clock 1.06 trillion
At this point . Why not just print another 300 billion US/ 40 billion CAD
Next year or 2021
2009 US was standing at 13 trillion.
This is the new reality. Anyone can run the govt now all they need to do is press a button that says print
I remember the old days where u preach housing cant keep growing double digits every year. % RATES are determined by thd bond market. GOVT CANT keep it low. Well they kept decreasing it.

I realise no one can tell the future. I bought McDonald, apple etc may years ago. I sold Mcdonald at $193 and apple in dec 2020 at $114.
But it a little illogical to assume it will unabashedly keep going up with no correction.
Speculation is abound.
I have pfizer stock bought it ages ago . Sold at $43 and bought it again st 41 now it dropped to $36.71. How in the world does that makes sense?They will be selling 100s of millions of doses and thd stock is down???
AS WE exit this pandemic, the common belief is a transfer of funds will be directed to more dividends yield stocks.
Where will the growth be?. If you look st market cap apple grew from 1.1 trillion to 2 trillion in about 9 months.

Thats about 100 billion in net profit/ month. That’s a lot of laptops, phones, fitbits, air bogs a month.
To assume no correction will occur in 2021 when 45 % restaurant will be closed, no sporting events, concerts and only 10 % air travel for the 1st 3 quarters in 2021 is high risk.
But hey just print more money. I dont need to support the economy. The waitresses, transport personnel and entertainment industry…just look after u.
I could not bother with Amazon purchase, i bought stuff using ebay and i bought 2 used bikes , fixed them up and use them as gifts.

This disposable, bailout culture has got to stop.
In 5 years. The debt wil be 35 trillion US and 1.6 trillion Canada . The vix is a drunk salior on Saturday night.
I bought and sold vanguard corp bond etf 5 times in 3 years. The % rates are so low for so long. It doesn’t go down at all.

it fluctuates +/ _ $1.50 7 year high..
This is not normal! Wtf

#70 maxx on 01.02.21 at 6:51 am

@ #5

If you are correct, the economy will very likely outperform even the best of predictions.

I wonder though, is balance, where most of society can invest to their individual comfort levels a thing of the past?

#71 BillyBob on 01.02.21 at 7:51 am

#55 Faron on 01.01.21 at 8:38 pm

Happy 2021 all. Did the annual slog to the top of a local “mountain” in biting wind and a serious downpour. Washed the sins of 2020 right off methinks.

==================================

Decades ago I climbed Finlayson in the pitch-black early enough one Jan 1 to watch the sun rise on a new year with some headphones and a thermos of coffee.

Now all there is from the “peak” is the view of thousands of square metres of asphalt roofing on Bear Mountain chipboard monstrosities. Ugh.

Sums up Victoria, really. Victim of it’s own self-congratulations.

#72 the Jaguar on 01.02.21 at 8:51 am

Excerpts from Howard Levitt’s National Post Column:

The law is that employers have the absolute right to require employees to return to the workplace……

❚ Some employers will provide employees with a choice. Return to work or continue to work remotely but with a 30 per cent cut in salary ( or any amount the employer selects). If the employee has the option of coming to the office at the same remuneration, there is nothing illegal, nor is it a constructive dismissal for employers to offer this alternative.

❚ The struggle over mandatory vaccination. Employers with vulnerable populations, such as hospitals and longterm care homes, can require their employees to vaccinate, or be dismissed. But once public health authorities formally recommend vaccinations, companies with employees who have to work in close proximity to co- workers, customers or others can be required to vaccinate or be fired. There is no freedom of conscience or privacy rights which precludes this, and arguments to the contrary are legally bunk.

❚ The backlash against political correctness. There will be a concomitant reaction to excessive political correctness which have descended from our campuses to our workplaces. Many employees and employers are sick of the ideological straitjacket it has created and that movement will lose its present impact.

#73 Simple Mind on 01.02.21 at 8:54 am

DELETED

#74 KLNR on 01.02.21 at 9:29 am

@#37 the jaguar on 01.01.21 at 6:17 pm
Any fool knows dogs are afraid of cats, not the other way around. Cats are like Russians. Don’t underestimate or mess with them.
They will come at you with everything they have got.
For satisfaction.

LOL no.
Really foolish statement.

#75 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.02.21 at 9:33 am

#40 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 6:46 pm
#13 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.01.21 at 3:45 pm
#11 Honest Realtor on 01.01.21 at 3:40 pm
And in all likelihood a terrific boom year ahead for homeowners.

I expect an increase of close to 15% this year in the GTA alone. Outside 416/905, with WFH, prices should go up close to 30% in good smaller cities and towns.

What a shame and social reversal that would be. – Garth

—————————————————————-

Its not a shame if you profit from it.

Ah, I forgot it’s all about you. My apologies. – Garth

———————————————

Like you didn’t fall into the 1% by taking advantage of opportunities offered to you by a capitalistic society.

All of a sudden we forget how we got to where we are today right?

This is a ZERO SUM game. You won because someone else lost.

Good one though.

Try harder next time.

This blog has always worried about housing affordability. Wishing prices higher so you can profit is nothing to brag about. – Garth

———————————————–

Hey you were in Government – why didn’t you do something about it then?

Don’t hate the little guy when its the big guys who set the rules.

The fish don’t regulate the water they swim in. They just try to adapt to it as best they can.

– HB

When in Ottawa, many years ago, I was the sole government member who objected to, and tried to halt, 0% downpayments and 40-year CMHC amortizations – and paid a price for it. Take you indignation and stick it in your drooly piehole. – Garth

#76 TurnerNation on 01.02.21 at 9:58 am

Driving around Toronto.
Danforth is decimated.
Kensington is killed.
College St is collapsed.
Pick any row of stores. 30-80% are papered up and gone.

Since 2015 I’ve been posting on here that Second and Third world countries get Bom’d. While the First World countries get economically bom’d. I never thought that the strike would be this sudden.
The borders were sealed (Usa) then the attack and 24/7 media propaganda war also began.

A week ago I had posted that IMF document. The country scope of their plan said ‘World’. Timeline was April 2020 until 2025. Yep 2025. This will be a long WW3 Comrades.
You might have surrendered your freedoms, mind and country. For your health Comrades!

This weblog has debunked that ‘leaked timeline’. It had included a forced rollout into UBI in Q1 this year.

#77 Penny Henny on 01.02.21 at 9:59 am

#42 Nonplused on 01.01.21 at 7:23 pm
Another tip I would add to Garth’s post is a reminder to put as much of your wealth as you can into your TFSA and RRSP. President Harris is very likely to phase out the capital gains exemption and if she does Trudeau will follow suit.
//////////////////

At first Nonplused would not and could not admit that Trump lost the election.
Now he is referring to the new POTUS as President Harris.

You got issues man.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:05 am

@#47 Heather
“I live in the Okanagan. I checked my property assessment today. It went down by $15,000. A property in Coldstream dropped by $53,000 from last year.”
+++
I’d say it’s an NDP “bait and switch”
Lower your property tax and raise fees for everything, cut services, etc.
The cynic in me doesnt believe 99% of politicians have my best interests at heart.

Speaking of Bait and Switch
I wonder if 2021 will be the year the Site C dam collapses as they fill it….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/site-c-letter-1.5741443

$12 billion spent to date.
The most expensive public works project in BC’s history and climbing……
Built on unstable soil, an earthquake zone, fracking all around, landslides, etc etc etc…
What could possibly go wrong?
Never tell an engineer “it cant be done”.

#79 Dharma Bum on 01.02.21 at 10:07 am

I was browsing on some real estate websites today, looking at cottages for sale. Waterfront properties in the Kawarthas, Haliburton Highlands, and the like. Every site with multiple “listings” looked like this:

SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD

I wonder if within 2-3 years people will realize that they may have made a hasty emotional decision, and the cottage market will be flooded with available properties at a 40% discount.

I hope so.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:08 am

@#75 Hungry Bare

Is it true hungry bears will stick their face in a bee hive to eat honey and then howl in surprise when stung?

#81 Penny Henny on 01.02.21 at 10:09 am

#48 “NUTS!” on 01.01.21 at 7:41 pm
“#14 Savvy Millennial Investor- feels like a ‘can’t miss’ year to me and my colleagues.”

“Gambling is not investing. Don’t be greedy and foolish. – Garth”
Cool companies now have valuations based on their popularity rather than basic fundamentals. Ferarri is a great example, impressive increase in value in the last 9 months for simply being a cool brand. I fail to understand the long term affect this will have on the market.

////////////////

self fulfilling prophecy. I buy Ferrari because I think it’s cool and I want to own one. The stock goes up because other Robinhooders think the same way. Everyone is buying it so the stock goes way up and I sell my stock and buy a Ferrari.
Easy peasy.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:14 am

@#71 Billybob
“Sums up Victoria, really. Victim of it’s own self-congratulations.”

+++

I like Victoria but you are correct. It is a victim of it’s own success.
The “Collwood crawl” as the “rush hour” traffic is referred to is be experienced to be believed.
One Global tv story on Jan 1st was of a local Victoria politician musing if they could build a GONDOLA across the harbour mouth to allow commuters reprieve from the traffic jams.
Or a passenger ferry. Either way. Fanciful pipedreams, too little too late.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:24 am

@#43 Ustabe
“Superseded only by those who call on Garth to ban so and so.
Emblematic of today’s sturdy conservative man.”

++++

Odd, I thought “banning” was the preserve of sensitive, politically correct types…. silly moi.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:30 am

Wow.
First a Republican Congressman… now a republican Senator.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01/02/virginia-state-sen-chafin-dies-after-catching-coronavirus/

#85 TurnerNation on 01.02.21 at 10:40 am

Follow on, question. What if I global leaders Weren’t such Nice Guys – just looking out for our health (they have given me so many health tips on their daily mandatory briefings, I am SO healthy!)
What if they actually wished to bring us to our knees economically. Wouldn’t a good method be to cancel all old culture, fracture friends and families using propaganda, then order never-ending 28-day economic lock downs – in all First world Countries?

GEE I hope THAT never happens eh! It would show malice and co-ordination and forethought.

#86 jal on 01.02.21 at 10:49 am

“If you’re gonna tax capital gains to the Max I’ll just move to a country where my future capital gains are not siphoned off.”
—–
Too bad that you cannot pass on that tax cost to your clients, (like the really rich and powerful people), and then claim an operating expense deduction.

#87 Prince Polo on 01.02.21 at 11:00 am

Speaking of staying invested, The Globe & Mail has this article behind a paywall (titled That brief market plunge in March has served up a wealth of 2020 hindsight). My favourite section:

“…One JP Morgan report from 2019 looked at how US$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over the previous 20 years would have fared through various scenarios. Fully invested the entire time, that money would have grown to about US$30,000, making for an average annual return of 5.6 per cent.

But missing out on just the 10 best days of the year would have cut the ending value of the investment by more than half, and reduced the average return to 2 per cent. An investor missing the 20 best days would have lost money.

The stock market also tends to offer up its greatest returns when they are at their most volatile. The same JP Morgan report found that six of the 10 best days in that 20-year period occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.

The past year 2020 was a prime example of that. The worst day of the selloff was on March 12, when the S&P/TSX Composite Index tanked by a nauseating 12 per cent. Less than two weeks later, on what would turn out to be the start of the recovery, the index gained 12 per cent in one day. Within three trading days, the index was up by nearly 20 per cent…”

#88 mick McClean on 01.02.21 at 12:25 pm

#79 Dharma Bum on 01.02.21 at 10:07 am
Cottage country sold out. I can’t help but wonder if the “Stay at Home” guy hacked into those real estate websites. On a lighter note NDP MP Niki Aston has been stripped of her critics role for having the audacity to visit her ailing grandmother in Greece
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-niki-ashton-greece-grandmother-sick-1.5859494

#89 Faron on 01.02.21 at 6:25 pm

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.21 at 10:14 am

@#71 Billybob

The “Collwood crawl” as the “rush hour” traffic is referred to is be experienced to be believed.a GONDOLA across the harbour mouth to allow commuters reprieve from the traffic jams. Or a passenger ferry. Either way. Fanciful pipedreams, too little too late.

Yet there’s a rail corridor running through the heart of Langford, Colwood and into Victoria. Light rail seems like a no brainer here. Of course, the NIMBYism would be deafening. esp now that there’s a bike route paralleling it that would have to be scrapped. Lycra now entrenched into the deepest clefts so as to be irretrievable.

#90 Luddite on 01.03.21 at 10:33 pm

Hmmm… my lakefront cabin in the south chilcotins went up 64%, maybe I should sell and buy in the Okanagan…