Of lust and virus

Call him Jake. Seems he lives in BC. On the island, maybe. Perhaps you noticed the comment that he left here yesterday:

Just wanted to say I collected CERB. I’m not proud of it but it was necessary. I also deferred my mortgage for 6 months back in April. I renewed my mortgage 2 weeks ago at 1.65% 5 year fixed. Even though I was on the dole since April and deferred my mortgage obligations for 6 months…they didn’t care! They even offered me a $20K LOC. I have been in the house since 1998 and have way more skin in the game then the C/U (lender). I declined the LOC and have been working full time since October. Shit happens…I didn’t want any of this.

We have no idea of J’s circumstances. Single, married, kids or not. Don’t know what his house is worth, nor the heft of his mortgage. Income or pension. Age or occupation. No idea. So being judgmental is pointless.

But we do know this: the virus whacked him. He lost his job and his income. He was forced to live on $2,000-a-month government pogey. For seven months he had no other means of support. He couldn’t pay his mortgage for six months. His home is still financed after 22 years of living there. His new job is just two months old.

Those are facts. Clearly the virus that so many on this blog try to minimize, ignore and trivialize has far-reaching economic and societal impacts that won’t be gone until the pandemic ends. So politicians who flaunt the rules and go on vacations or parents who stuff their kids onto crowded toboggan runs without masks just prolong the misery Jake’s lived through. Shame on you.

But this comment also makes you wonder a little about the credit union financing his house. It extended a rock-bottom, long-term, fixed-rate mortgage to a borrower who was (a) unemployed and on government assistance for many months and (b) had no financial assets, forced into mortgage forbearance. Jake also mentioned he has more equity than debt, so the loan was probably not CMHC-insured. In other words, the CU members took on all of the risk.

So what, you say? Isn’t this a good thing that a lender helped out a guy who was, through no fault of his own, run over by a pandemic?

Yep. It’s sweet of them. Maybe a bank wouldn’t have been as forgiving. But this sure underscores how we’ve allowed a real estate-based economy to emerge and now dominate our culture. Many credit unions have monster mortgage portfolios that, in the event of a real estate decline, would crush them. Jake sounds like a credit risk, yet was handed the gold-pated, cheapo, best-in-the-house loan rate. Is this prudence on the part of the mortgagor? Or does every borrowing like this chip away a little at the financial stability of the country?

I also wonder about the decisions our guy made. A house owned for two decades in BC, given the real estate insanity of Canada – and especially that part of it – would have soared in value over the years. The windfall gain would be free of tax. And during the Year of the Virus house values have exploded as people fled cities, craved more space and detached homes, shunned condos and obsessed over nesting.

In other words, if Jake had no earned income, no assets and couldn’t pay the mortgage, why would he not bail out of the real estate at the top of the market and collect taxless bags of money to survive a once-in-a-gen crisis? It might well be enough, invested, to provide lifelong security. Obviously having a single-asset financial strategy just failed him. So why not change that?

Yeah, I know. We’re smitten. Canadians would rather eat bugs and drink from the eavestrough than sell their homes. Instead of making us reassess values, the crisis this slimy little pathogen created has exacerbated the real estate lust in our hearts. Look at this week’s Nanos survey…

Canadians are the most confident in more than three years that real estate prices will continue to rise, according to weekly telephone polling, a positive signal for the recovery. About half of respondents, or 49.2 per cent, see home prices climbing over the next six months, the highest share since May 2017.  “Consumer confidence in Canada continues to gain strength with news on vaccines. Forward perceptions on both the strength of the economy and the value of residential real estate gained a full five percentage points in the past four weeks of tracking.”

The survey also found less than 15% of people think they’re better off financially than a year ago, while their job security has recently declined. No wonder. More than 20 million are currently locked down because of the second wave, as virus deaths pass 15,000 and infections set new daily records (3,000 in Ontario alone on Tuesday). The economy is being set up for another April-style hit with a vast swath of the small business sector on life support.

And guess what? We’re one day away from recording the best December in history for real estate sales and prices in the nation’s largest market. Household borrowing and debt have been expanding faster than during the housing bubble of 2017 – when governments were forced into action to corral house horniness. Now politicians have showered $250 billion on folks like Jake and overseen a collapse in the cost of mortgages.

Strange days, indeed. Stranger still that we think they’ll end well.

Like Jake, we’re not too good at learning stuff.

189 comments ↓

#1 Pivo on 12.30.20 at 2:10 pm

Garth, I took the liberty of writing a short summary of the blog for 2020…

If pathetic moisteners, mils, WFHers, and boomers held their B&D through C19 they’d be much less pooched than the house horny anti-vaxers who bought high and locked in. Trump (is that a sentence?).

And now, a prediction for the 2021 blog summary…

As our virus free pants wearing society succumbs to the new normal, watch Mr. Socks ride the third wave of the C19 crisis and rush Canadians to the ballot box while Chrissy quietly tries to steal our pensions and avoid truth like it was a slimy little pathogen.

#2 Zero risk on 12.30.20 at 2:13 pm

What’s the risk to the CU in his case? We don’t have all the facts but he’s probably sitting on a ton of equity with that holding period.

He eventually misses three payments, the bank owns it for approximately one one house weekend, sells it and gets all of its principle back.

Not all low income people are equal. Some are home equity kings and present no risk to a bank.

Lenders don’t want houses and the foreclosure process is legally onerous, costly, lengthy and disruptive. The real risk is in bloated RE portfolios when an inevitable correction materializes. – Garth

#3 tkid on 12.30.20 at 2:20 pm

Am I an idiot for living debt free? Should I get a house, despite a possible job loss looming next month, and retirement in a decade an a half?

#4 Doug t on 12.30.20 at 2:22 pm

How this country survives is beyond me – if and when the housing market pukes it is going to put the final nail in the coffin for this sad country

#5 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.30.20 at 2:31 pm

ONLY reason I log on to this blog everyday is so I can confirm how much more Intelligent I am than the rest of these spoiled, entitled -brats who venture the comments section.

Now do your part and prove me right!

#6 Calgary Rip off on 12.30.20 at 2:32 pm

The financial problems from covid 19 will be around for decades. And the taxpayer will pick it up. The reality is that there is no evidence as why some get very sick and others dont. There are numerous studies describing the how but not the why. Doctors and researchers dont know. Therefore anti maskers and everything else is stupid. And of course real estate keeps going up up up like a house of cards. So many variables, all of them bad.

#7 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 2:36 pm

Garth,

You can’t fairly lump parents who let their kids out in with politicians who say one thing and do the other (travel while telling us minions to stay home).

From your comment yesterday:

“Stop with the drama and keep your kids safe at HOME.”
– Garth

Even though stats show Covid is a nothingburger for young people (look them up). Parents are just supposed to lock their kids up at home? For weeks on end? Seriously???

You’re beginning to sound like the guy who told you to go home while walking your dog or the “Cottagers Stay Home” guy.

Can we not move to extremes???

What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand? Bad attitudes and poor decisions will only make this hell last longer. – Garth

#8 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 2:38 pm

Can we not move to extremes???

Should be:

Can we avoid moving to extremes???

Perhaps you’re just throwing this out there to get a reply? Is your thinking really that kids should be forced to not go out?

#9 Prince Polo on 12.30.20 at 2:38 pm

I’m not really looking forward to see what the “brain trust” federal government devises as the latest gadget to keep house prices growing on steroids:
50 yr multi-generation amortizations?
UBI payments only for mortgage holders?
Reverse cap gains payout for principle residences?

All of these sound pretty ridiculous, but then again, so does the idea that prices continue to the upside, regardless of existing economic circumstances. I know it’s an inverse relationship to interest rates, but this is just perverse!

Happy New Year, ye scallywags!

#10 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.30.20 at 2:41 pm

Oil bottomed months ago.

Huge investment opportunities right now in Canadian oil stocks.

That is if you like making easy money.

#11 Canadian Soldier on 12.30.20 at 2:42 pm

This is so ridiculous Sir. I hate Canadian housing, I’ve been loading up on riocan personally. But I feel like I need to just dive in, this country is built on housing our entire eco system supports it. The military just changed its rules. Equity protection upon posting is now 35k up from 15k. So I guess I’ll buy a shitty place seeing as they’ll take the first 35k risk. Housing is all anyone in the military talks about. They couldn’t even tell you what the s and p or apple stock tickers are.

Lastly Sir, I’ve seen it asked but never answered. But
If bitcoin keeps this run up. I might have enough to work with you at turner. What’s the minimum I need to work
With you? 10 mil for you? 1 mil to see Ryan lol?

Thanks for everything Sir, had a great year thanks to you!!
Merry Christmas and happy new year!!

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 2:42 pm

@#5 Hungry Bear

Do bears really use Charmin in the woods?

#13 Sail Away on 12.30.20 at 2:44 pm

#5 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.30.20 at 2:31 pm

…I can confirm… I am… spoiled…

———-

You posted some irrelevant words, HB, so I fixed it above. You’re welcome.

#14 Mosey on 12.30.20 at 2:45 pm

We don’t know where Jake lives in BC. But if he lives in Nelson, he would have had to move out of the area to find a rental had he taken the decision to sell his house. There are literally no rentals available in this area. Perhaps true in other areas as well?

No job, so why not move? One of real estate’s big drawbacks is the death of mobility. – Garth

#15 Diamond Dog on 12.30.20 at 2:56 pm

#162 Stoph on 12.30.20 at 1:58 pm

Just watched a video on geothermal potential in the prairies through the usage of historic oil drilling logs looking for porous rock deep enough down that heats fluids from one point to another and back to surface around 130 degrees C to generate big power. The site used in the video below had enough potential to power 20,000 homes. What’s interesting about the video is that a good deal of the well infrastructure and geo logs are already there in theory at some oil field sites.

If I was an oil exec, I would be paying some serious attention to this for all the right reasons: reduction of C02 footprint, lowering production costs (oil patch is a big consumer of power) but mainly, to save/make $$. If the oil patch is ever going to get serious about zero emissions, this is a way to it. How else do we transition from burning hydrocarbons to producing electricity on our way to zero emissions? :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn7IhGitNE4&t=55s

#16 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 3:01 pm

Cdn house lust single asset strategy.

If it cannot be broken for all the reasons you stated, economy, pandemic, etc. and they still think all is well then:

Yup, it’s a disease of mass hysteria.

#17 3s on 12.30.20 at 3:01 pm

Dude, you don’t get it. TBTF. Free money galore to support that even with a closed off economy. If thats not proof that printing will solve all your problems and continue to do so I don’t know what is. The crowds are too dumb and greedy to lose confidence in the currency no matter how much you print. So the answer always gotta be just print moar! QED

#18 gimme stuff on 12.30.20 at 3:07 pm

22 years and now a cheapo mortgage – of course they gonna offer him a LOC at that moment. It’s like upsizing your fries for an extra 25 cents.

#19 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 3:19 pm

Garth, this is Canada. This is a fact I have come to understand at a deeper level after following your blog for 10+ years.

1) We have no stock market. It’s comprised of gov’t allowed monopolies in financials and utilities. Nobody has made any money and in fact lost massive amounts of purchasing power by owning canadian companies the last 20 years. Lately, the TSX has been dragged out of the global gutter by possibly the worlds most overpriced stock shopify, but I would bet this rings more like the blackberry chart than the amazon chart in the next 5 years.

2) The gov’t doesn’t want you to invest in anything other than housing. Globally, fixed income as an asset has been murdered and with 100 year bonds <1% being issued in Europe, this looks likely to last. Secondly, due to #1, we must diversify to US market where we pay additional US taxes on dividends. Why would I want to invest with after tax dollars in a company that has to pay corporate tax, then issues me a dividend and the US gov't takes more tax, then I receiving it have to pay more tax it's outrageous. Tax inefficiency is the #1 reason there are nearly zero people in the world who have gotten wealthy from investing that didn't start that way from business ventures or R/E sales. R/E on the other hand is tax free gain when you sell.

3) One of our gov't top priorities is making us poorer each year. We actively try to devalue the CAD 'to support exports' – what a joke. In 2012 I could buy 1 share in a US company with 1 canadian dollar. Now that same dollar buys 20-30% less shares which was a boon for older investors but not for someone trying to build wealth now. Also, we lose money on conversion back and forth unless we're spending time journaling shares and paying close attention to minimize bank/fx charges. In this day and age with with all the automation and digitized systems I should be able to exchange cash for 5pips or some miniscule amount as it's pure profit for them.

4) lastly for the people commenting that they have no debt (because they rent) please set them straight. Rental obligations are a form of debt – historically 'off balance sheet' but there is no difference between someone who needs to pay a mortgage for 20 years or someone who needs to rent for 20 years as both demand cashflow for the next 20 years.

#20 Diamond Dog on 12.30.20 at 3:21 pm

Garth, have I complemented you lately for your undertakings in this sometimes admittedly pathetic blog? (the tone on some of the comments yesterday was, um) Anyway, thanks!

If I don’t get a chance to say it over the next 48, I wish all the best for you and yours and thanks again for this year of insights you’ve given us all. If there’s one opinion in this world I hold in high regard, its your own.

#21 KNOW IT ALL on 12.30.20 at 3:24 pm

Nurse tests positive for COVID-19 despite recent vaccine!!

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nurse-tests-positive-covid-19-shortly-vaccinated/story?id=74947995

Folks there is ONLY 1 way out of these..

SOCIAL DISTANCE, WEAR A MASK IF YOU MUST GO OUT, AND SANITIZE!!!!

Now is NOT the time to go tobogganing or go step on airplanes to go on vacation.

IF IT ISN’T URGENT OR ESSENTIAL……

DON’T [email protected]#*ING DO IT!!!!

#22 Hilroy on 12.30.20 at 3:28 pm

there’s an Oracle in St. Barts with all the answers – luckily we’ve had people on it for the past few weeks.

#23 SoggyShorts on 12.30.20 at 3:29 pm

#157 Kp on 12.30.20 at 12:36 pm
The two groups in danger are 80+, very risky and 65+ somewhat risky. For the other people I think that exercise, good food and spending time outside with friends and family is best.
**************************
What absolute idiocy.
How do you propose we set things up so that no one over 65 ever interacts with anyone younger ever again?

#24 Flop... on 12.30.20 at 3:30 pm

Australian Stock Exchange delisted 153 companies this year, Virgin Australia one of them.

A Virgin that couldn’t hit its target is hardly surprising…

M46BC

——————————————————-

“ASX loses 153 companies in Covid-hit year.

Virgin and Village are among the best known of the firms that delisted in 2020, for reasons ranging from failing to pay fees, to takeovers.” Melbourne- Herald Sun.

#25 SoggyShorts on 12.30.20 at 3:33 pm

I’d love to hear why Jake didn’t cash out.
He said he has way more skin in the game than the lender?
What’s that mean, 60% paid off? 80%? On a BC house worth… 1m?

With no Job and Justin Bucks, I doubt there will ever be a more perfect set up for moving.

#26 Roial1 on 12.30.20 at 3:36 pm

#19 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 3:19 pm

1) We have no stock market. It’s comprised of gov’t allowed monopolies in financials and utilities. Nobody has made any money and in fact lost massive amounts of purchasing power by owning Canadian companies the last 20 years. Lately, the TSX
______________________________________

This door knob does not know squat.

As a Canadian investor, We (my wife and I) have almost doubled our net worth over the last 10 years.
We do our due diligence in getting advice from our 1%er and mostly fallow it.

There are LOTS of great opportunities in Canadian companies.

Bet this dolt has never heard of a co. called Boralex. Just one example of what’s out there. and of coarse Shopify. Just stop the negative and open your eyes.

#27 UCC on 12.30.20 at 3:39 pm

#19 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 3:19 pm
4) lastly for the people commenting that they have no debt (because they rent) please set them straight. Rental obligations are a form of debt – historically ‘off balance sheet’ but there is no difference between someone who needs to pay a mortgage for 20 years or someone who needs to rent for 20 years as both demand cashflow for the next 20 years.

———-
Sure renting is a form of debt. But it is limited by the length of the agreement. At the end of the agreement, the renter is free to find a cheaper, the same or more expensive accomodation agreement. It’s even possible to live in a house free under certain circumstances like house sitting. Care to travel around the world in a VW camper Van once this virus is taken care of permanently?

#28 Moved my money ... on 12.30.20 at 3:41 pm

out of Credit Unions. I guess if one of them fell the big banks would gobble them up. Especially if they were told to do so …

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 4:04 pm

Canada VAX POPULI update

Why do I do this? Want to see Canada whom I owe everything to be healthy, happy and productive.
——————-

Found a VERY RECENT source on vaccine tracking (Dec. 30) and it’s BRILLIANT by Bloomberg (not the BNN one Garth):

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/#dvz-section-purchasing

add also info in real time updated by NYT at their Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Looked at Cdn data and the LONG AND THE SHORT of it is (unless Canada buys Russian and/or Chinese vaccines):

IFFY that ALL Canadians get vax’d by fall per Gov Canada’s goal (Sept. per Trudeau).

Tweeted Trudeau today to update Canadians so as not to create FALSE HOPE and a LETDOWN afterwards.

The numbers, logic follow.
——————-

Canada Vax Orders, 214 million doses ordered, efficacy & status:

Novavax……………….52M, unknown efficacy
Sanofi/GSK…………..52, unknown efficacy
Moderna……………….40, 95%
Medicago………………20, unknown efficacy
Pfizer…………………..20, 95%
AstraZeneca………….20, 70%
Johnson & Johnson…10, unknown efficacy

1. Novavax: Ph 3 trials, end of MARCH 2021 results expected, then approval wait time. New plant expansion Maryland done by mid-2021. 85 workers hired. They have orders of 1,284 million doses incl. Canada.

2. Sanofi/GSK: delay, a new Ph 2 study in Feb. 2020 FAILED to generate a good immune response in people 50 years and older, those that need immunity the most.

3. Medicago: Cdn 50 people being tested in Montreal, in Ph. 2/3 trials.

4. J&J: end of JAN 2021 results expected, then approval wait time. They have orders of 346 million doses incl. Canada.

So RELIABLE doses during 2021, you know as in production and delivering:

Moderna + Pfizer + AstraZeneca = 40+20+20 = 80 million doses, 40 million Beavers vax’d.
——————-

Factor in EFFICACY, how many Beavers gain IMMUNITY:

= 40*0.95 + 20*0.95 + 20*0.70 = 71 million doses, 35.5 million vax’d will have immunity.

StatCan July 1, 2020:

38 million Beavers all ages.
32 million Beavers 15 yrs or older.

Why IFFY.

Half VAX POPULI eggs in Novavax, Sanofi/GSK…the latter has failed, the former plant expansion to be built and still awaiting results.

GOOD news is that the Kanuckistan Free Range Herd should have immunity, at 70% (22.4 million people) some time in LATE 2021.

-FWIW

———————

Why what Retired Gen. Rick Hillier said last night about 1 dose Moderna at 80% efficacy is reckless:

= 40*0.80 + 20*0.95 + 20*0.70 = 32.5 million vax’d will have immunity.

Cutting it a little TOO close for comfort there Rick.

#30 Honour Our Front Line Heroes - Our REALTORS® on 12.30.20 at 4:08 pm

This blog makes so clear how each Realtor® is so critically important to Canada’s economy.

“We’re smitten. Canadians would rather eat bugs and drink from the eavestrough than sell their homes.”

Because Home is Home.

Honour your Realtor®. They are keeping our economy alive. Buy them a delivery meal, or send them some PPE.

#31 red falcon on 12.30.20 at 4:11 pm

At the end of the day, Sheeple don’t know what they be doing, and will get their reckoning… I mean their shearing. And it will be a deep deep haircut, be it housing or their investments via mutual funds… there is nothing mutual about it!

#32 KLNR on 12.30.20 at 4:21 pm

@#7 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 2:36 pm
Garth,

You can’t fairly lump parents who let their kids out in with politicians who say one thing and do the other (travel while telling us minions to stay home).

From your comment yesterday:

“Stop with the drama and keep your kids safe at HOME.”
– Garth

Even though stats show Covid is a nothingburger for young people (look them up). Parents are just supposed to lock their kids up at home? For weeks on end? Seriously???

You’re beginning to sound like the guy who told you to go home while walking your dog or the “Cottagers Stay Home” guy.

Can we not move to extremes???

What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand? Bad attitudes and poor decisions will only make this hell last longer. – Garth

Garth, good luck getting through to these dopes.

#33 Jimmy Zhao on 12.30.20 at 4:34 pm

How much confidence can we have in the Doug Ford Government when even his own Ministers don’t listen to him?
Of course I’m talking about Finance Minister Rob Phillips who not only left the country against the advice of his own government, but conspired with his staff to post to his Twitter account at certain times whilst he was away to make it appear he was still in the country.

He will give some smarmy half-apology that “We can all learn from this, and not make the same mistake”

Tout est pardonné

He’s just one fool, and his political career is toast. It means nothing to society. – Garth

#34 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 4:39 pm

#21 KNOW IT ALL

2 reasons WHY. 1 good, 1 very bad.

GOOD first…

Pfizer 95% efficacy, means 5% will not get immunity. The nurse is one of the 5%.
——————

BAD…

Even vaccinated you can still transmit Covid-19:

From France’s “La Haute autorité de santé”:

Covid-19: vaccinated but contagious, is it possible?
https://www.leparisien.fr/societe/covid-19-vaccine-mais-contagieux-est-ce-possible-01-12-2020-8411512.php

WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/who-chief-scientist-not-confident-vaccines-prevent-transmission

————————–

I ask myself if the BAD is true, why would we get vaccinated?

Hopefully the La Haute autorité de santé and WHO Scientist are wrong and the vaccine companies and their trials, results, efficacy are correct.

#35 Smarty Pants on 12.30.20 at 4:42 pm

#3 tkid on 12.30.20 at 2:20 pm

Am I an idiot for living debt free? Should I get a house, despite a possible job loss looming next month, and retirement in a decade an a half?
____

How can I answer this “politely”?
Let’s put it this way… If you have to ask, then I think you’ve answered your own question!

#36 Dogman01 on 12.30.20 at 4:55 pm

Just my rant;

In Alberta we have got Old Age home problems again.
We also have hospital capacity issue again.

These problems may have been a surprise in Spring 2020, but are not a surprise in Dec 2020.
Hundreds of Billions thrown at CERB but seeming no improvements or investments in Old Age Homes or Hospital Capacity. Could we not have by now trained an army of CERB benefit holders to be ready to work at Old Age Homes. We trained 18 years old men in less time to storm Normandy.

The Industry minister speaking about how the Feds will help with “Mental Health”, yet no Industrial Plan for how our economy will provide jobs in the future to reduce actual causes of mental health problems.

The emote, they spend they accomplish little of substance.
I do not want earnestness from our leaders I want efficacy.

When they start acting like it is emergency, I will acknowledge that it is an emergency.
Why are the Airports still open? So they can go to St Bart’s?
Why are the World Jr Hockey being played n Edmonton when outdoor Hockey is banned in Alberta for the rest of us.

Total lack of Leadership.

“they made the weather and then they stand in the rain and say “Shit, it’s raining!”.”

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 4:56 pm

@#33 Jay Zee
“Finance Minister Rob Phillips who not only left the country against the advice of his own government, but conspired with his staff to post to his Twitter account at certain times whilst he was away to make it appear he was still in the country.”

++++

Posting fake Twitter photos to appear to still be in the country …..pathetic.
And his voters are going into lockdown again?????
A new low in politics.

I’m sure this idiot will have some ‘splainin’ to do with his constituents come election time.

He’s toast.

#38 CGauge on 12.30.20 at 4:57 pm

Garth, isn’t Real Estate just another asset class?Everything is going up, so why not Real Estate.

#39 Dr V on 12.30.20 at 5:10 pm

19 catalyst

“In 2012 I could buy 1 share in a US company with 1
canadian dollar. Now that same dollar buys 20-30%
less shares”

Isnt that called investing?

#40 Penny Henny on 12.30.20 at 5:16 pm

In other words, if Jake had no earned income, no assets and couldn’t pay the mortgage, why would he not bail out of the real estate at the top of the market and collect taxless bags of money to survive a once-in-a-gen crisis?-GT
////////////////////

Answer-
We have no idea of J’s circumstances. Single, married, kids or not. Don’t know what his house is worth, nor the heft of his mortgage. Income or pension. Age or occupation. No idea. So being judgmental is pointless.-GT

#41 cramar on 12.30.20 at 5:16 pm

My wife out for a walk the other day and passed a sign posted at a credit union. It advertised a 5-year mortgage at 1.98%. Party on!

The RE party will end like any New Year’s Eve parties tomorrow night. Someone is going to die!

#42 Breaking News on 12.30.20 at 5:17 pm

This just in….

CTV News – Premiere Doug Ford has announced that he has asked for the resignation of Finance Minister Rob Phillips. “John Tory says he’s known Rod Phillips for 25 years and calls Phillips “hard working, dependable and we’re lucky to have people like him in public office.”

Oops… I meant to send this tomorrow but accidentally hit the submit button.

#43 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 5:18 pm

I’m Vanisle or Jake. The first thing I want to say to you Garth…We were meant to procreate. If you haven’t done so, when you meet your maker…you’ll be sent right back down since you didn’t finish your job! You think you were put on this planet to maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio.

I have two teen age boys and that was one of the best decisions I have ever made. I would trust my back with these guys.

I have been with my girl since 1989 I was 16 years old. We Married in 2007. She is the Mother of my children…I love Her.

The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998. I have made accelerated bi-weeky payments of $465 from the beginning.

My Wife works for the Provincial Govt and has killer benefits…medical,dental,pension plan.

We did refinance back in 2010 for a new roof and a minor bathroom upgrade…But that was only $10K.

On March 23 2020 I thought this was it…were all gonna die. It was a strategic mortgage deferral.

I have around $700K of equity in the house…Best thing I ever did and I was only 21 at the time.

My comments stand. And if your wife is so well employed, you two should have some savings or be able to service your debts. That seems obvious. As for procreation being the point of life, you and the virus have a bunch in common. – Garth

#44 Kat on 12.30.20 at 5:26 pm

I have never understood hearing about people who never think to sell their house if it is worth crazy coin and move. I have spoken to so many seniors in Vancouver who own but do not want to move or sell because where would they go they ask me. If my house was worth several million where couldn’t I go? I also grew up in a household that moved to better working conditions where as the rest always stayed right where they grew up regardless of there being a recession etc. maybe that is why moving is no big deal to us. As for Ontario maybe they need to set up some areas for people to bring their kids to have exercise without going over crowd limits. We always take ours out in less busy areas but clearly not everyone does, so perhaps doing it the same as programs are done here at the moment with a time limit on staying and some level of crowd control. The video I saw looked fine as everyone was spread out and looked to be distancing however that may have been just one small spot and it was way over crowded in others. So many arbitrary rules for everyone is certainly making it worse.
Costco was packed but my favorite local eatery will probably have to close as they are tiny and cannot fit very many people in with the rules and they have barriers and sanitize constantly. Meanwhile Costco was not counting or wiping anything. Strange times. Hope we all get though it alive and can get back to the old normal.

#45 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 5:29 pm

“What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand?” – Garth

Yeah, because it’s worked so well for us?

What if we didn’t have lockdowns? In Sweden the coronavirus was allowed “to let rip”.

Total Deaths:

2017

#46 Confused on 12.30.20 at 5:32 pm

Okay I get the jab. Now that maybe 1/3 of the world has the shot in one year we still have 2/3’s that don’t have the shot. It will take years to give everyone the shot. By then I have had multiple shots and still can’t travel because the whole world is still contagious. Does this all make sense?

#47 SoggyShorts on 12.30.20 at 5:36 pm

#43 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 5:18 pm
I’m Vanisle or Jake. The first thing I want to say to you Garth…We were meant to procreate. If you haven’t done so, when you meet your maker…you’ll be sent right back down since you didn’t finish your job!
***********************
Wow. So anyone without children isn’t allowed into your make-believe afterlife?
No wonder you’re bad at decision making.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 5:39 pm

@#43 vanisle
“The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998………..

……..I have around $700K of equity in the house…”

+++++

So… you still owe 200k ?
In 22 years you have paid off 25k?

#49 The Nutty Epidemiologists - Covid party deserters on 12.30.20 at 5:39 pm

What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand? Bad attitudes and poor decisions will only make this hell last longer. – Garth

Yes, agreed because of politicians and mainly people of your generation!!!!

#50 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 5:40 pm

“What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand?” – Garth

Yeah, because it’s worked so well for us?

What if we didn’t have lockdowns? In Sweden the coronavirus was allowed “to let rip”.

Total Deaths Sweden:

2017 91,972
2018 92,185
2019 88,766
2020 89,491 (so far)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Total Deaths “Lockdown” Canada:

2017 274,240
2018 283,770
2019 287,460
2020 300,310 (so far)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/443061/number-of-deaths-in-canada/

Looking at the numbers, our deaths were already trending higher, but aside from massive debt, depression, suicides, lost jobs, bankruptcies, what have lockdowns really accomplished for us? I am open to data-driven approaches, and I admit I might have some sort of glaring blind spot I’m not realizing, but just wondering???

#51 Km on 12.30.20 at 5:41 pm

@vanisle Life is all about procreation ? Wow go back to your cave, having kids is not the be all end all. I personally never wanted any but life happened and here we are and I love them regardless. Some people choose not to have kids and some cannot even though they wanted them. Are you so close to the writer that you know what his reason was or even if it is your business at all? Pull your head out of your ass it isn’t meant to be worn as a hat.

#52 KAC on 12.30.20 at 5:42 pm

Garth wrote:
“ why would he not bail out of the real estate at the top of the market and collect taxless bags of money to survive a once-in-a-gen crisis? It might well be enough, invested, to provide lifelong security. Obviously having a single-asset financial strategy just failed him.”

How did his single asset DP strategy fail him when it has placed him in a position where he “might well have enough, invested, to provide lifelong security”?

Doesn’t him being in such a position suggest his one asset strategy, whilst risky, has been very successful?

I’m trying to follow the logic.

#53 Rob Phillips is the smartest person on 12.30.20 at 5:43 pm

In the assortment of corrupt imbeciles that composed 99% of the ontario govt..

CTV News – Premier Doug Ford has announced that he has asked for the resignation of Finance Minister Rob Phillips. “John Tory says he’s known Rod Phillips for 25 years and calls Phillips “hard working, dependable and we’re lucky to have people like him in public office.

#54 Wait There on 12.30.20 at 6:02 pm

All of this real estate is HOT and the Bank of Canada is keeping an eye on it.

That eye indeed might be closed or blind but they are keeping an eye on it.

BUT it keeps the GDP up. So all is good.

Don’t worry it will end well though.

#55 Drinking on 12.30.20 at 6:05 pm

#34 Dolce Vita

Many are asking the same questions and only time will tell. I do appreciate the links you posted on your post #29; it does give a clearer picture on what seems to working and what is not at this present time!

#56 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 6:11 pm

My comments stand. And if your wife is so well employed, you two should have some savings or be able to service your debts. That seems obvious. As for procreation being the point of life, you and the virus have a bunch in common. – Garth

Of course we have savings. I also don’t consider a mortgage payment as debt (you gotta live somewhere). I just took a vacation from that debt for 6 months. I resumed payments as soon as the deferral program ended. Rents in my area are 3 X

#57 Dogman01 on 12.30.20 at 6:18 pm

#19 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 3:19 pm

Why does Canada seem to perform so poorly, and why do we have such low standards for our leaders? – cui bono
Precarious jobs, economy based on selling Houses , selling rocks, wood and food, manufacturing little for export. Debt and declining industries.
Citizens seem to collectively assume that the future unfolds according to a random process for which our leaders have no control. We do not demand a vision, a plan for a different and better future, instead it’s just complacency.

We should expect agency over the kind of economy and society that we want.

#58 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 6:18 pm

As for procreation being the point of life, you and the virus have a bunch in common. – Garth

Well you ain’t getting any younger…you’ll see. Life is not all money…they’re gonna send you back.

#59 S.Bby on 12.30.20 at 6:24 pm

#43 vanisle

You are a success in life and don’t let anyone say differently. And congrats on your family!

#60 Drinking on 12.30.20 at 6:37 pm

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz

Like you, I was trying to understand what he/she was actually saying!

#61 Dave on 12.30.20 at 6:41 pm

You say bail at the top of the market, but yesterday you said that prices will rise in spring with the pent up demand and cheap rates? Which is it?

Bail when you can’t pay the mortgage and would be better off doing so. Seems clear. – Garth

#62 WDL on 12.30.20 at 6:42 pm

Best line of the blog, “So being judgmental is pointless.” So says the man that spends the rest of the blog judging. That said, I love your financial advice….at least most of it.

How did I judge the writer? – Garth

#63 Nonplused on 12.30.20 at 6:43 pm

#43 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 5:18 pm

“I’m Vanisle or Jake. The first thing I want to say to you Garth…We were meant to procreate. If you haven’t done so, when you meet your maker…you’ll be sent right back down since you didn’t finish your job! You think you were put on this planet to maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio.”

There is no evidence that we were put on this earth for any other purpose than those which we devise for ourselves. Of course for many people, especially religious people, reproduction is part of what they grow up thinking the options are. Wife, house, car, job, kids, church on Sunday, vacation in Hawaii. But it isn’t true for everybody.

I have a cousin who he and his wife desperately wanted children but for some reason the plumbing didn’t work. I don’t understand why they didn’t adopt but they seem to have instead just accepted things. So there is that, too. Not everyone can have children, not everyone wants to have children, and not everyone should have children. (Lots of people who do have children fall into the latter group. Just ask anyone who has worked with social services.)

#64 S.Bby on 12.30.20 at 6:47 pm

#44 Kat

My elderly neighbour died in her house. Seriously. I watched her get wheeled out to the white panel van. They lived there for 50 years. And then her 2 elderly sons were stuck with cleaning up her previously deceased husband’s years of hoarding.

#65 Nonplused on 12.30.20 at 6:47 pm

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 5:39 pm
@#43 vanisle
“The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998………..

……..I have around $700K of equity in the house…”

+++++

So… you still owe 200k ?
In 22 years you have paid off 25k?

——————————

I think that scenario is a lot more common than one would think. Lots of people think the mortgage payment is just a fact of life and they don’t actually try and pay it off. Refinance time is new car time.

#66 jess on 12.30.20 at 6:50 pm

2016
When the PrivatBank Ukraine was nationalized, the authorities said the lender had a $5.6 billion hole in its balance sheet due to shady lending practices. Kolomoisky disputed this assessment.
..”the former chairwoman of Ukraine’s central bank described as “one of the biggest financial scandals of the 21st century,” where they managed to clear $5.5 billion from the coffers of the bank – amounting to roughly five percent of the country’s gross domestic product.Ultimately this financial burden was placed on Ukrainian taxpayers, who had to shoulder a $5.9 billion bailout of the bank after it was subsequently nationalized as a result of the scandal.”
=============
The Justice Department said two Ukrainian oligarchs and two Miami businessmen created a web of Miami-based companies that laundered money

Feds raid Optima Management offices tied to billionaire Ihor …
http://www.bizjournals.com › southflorida › news › 2020/08/07
Aug 7, 2020 —

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244774932.html#storylink=cpy
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244774932.html

US Targets Property Linked to Multi-Billion PrivatBank Scandal
Published: Friday, 07 August 2020 20:48
Written by Eli Moskowitz

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/12916-us-targets-property-linked-to-multi-billion-privatbank-scandal

=======================
In an effort to crack down on the hundreds of millions of dollars that were laundered through the U.S. real estate and business sectors by two former owners of one of Ukraine’s largest banks, authorities announced on Thursday that they intend to seize several of the properties involved in the scandal.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-seeks-forfeiture-two-commercial-properties-purchased-funds-misappropriated

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
Justice Department Seeks Forfeiture of Third Commercial Property Purchased with Funds Misappropriated from PrivatBank in Ukraine

Today, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida alleging that commercial real estate in Cleveland, Ohio, was acquired using funds misappropriated from PrivatBank in Ukraine as part of a multi-billion-dollar loan scheme.

#67 jess on 12.30.20 at 6:52 pm

donald did not win ?

“Bolsonaro” is the winner 2020 PERSON OF THE YEAR IN ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION see who were the finalists
finalists have also profited from propaganda, undermined democractic institutions in their countries, politicized their justice systems, shunned multilateral agreements, rewarded corrupt inner circles, and moved their countries away from democratic law and order toward autocracy.
“That is the central theme of the year,” said Louise Shelley, the Director of the Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) at George Mason University who was on the award panel. “They are all populists causing great damage to their countries, regions, and the world.
https://www.occrp.org/en/poy/2020/

#68 Barb on 12.30.20 at 6:57 pm

I felt for Jake when I read his comment.
And I think the last thing he needed was to create even more unknowns–possible chaos–in his life by putting his house on the market.

Even the credit union knew he was one of the good guys, obviously his previous record of being dependable and reliable was in their file. He’s not one of the guys that should be kicked to the curb.

I hope he’ll be OK.

#69 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 7:01 pm

To vanisle – Garth used your post to mostly question bank lending and the point stands that you claimed hardship (even though there was apparently none) and took 6 months off payments yet the bank did not treat you as higher credit risk which, from a lender perspective, is irresponsible. The comment on children was a low blow since you know he doesnt have kids so it was just a meanspirited remark.

Anyways, as this CU displayed, it’s why I tell garth to not have his clients money in bonds because there is no bond market right now. Companies cannot repay their debt either, they just look to refi them and are being saved by governments buying up gov’t debt which is making corporate credit look good only on a comparative basis.

Some replies to my earlier post:
#26 – clearly you can’t read / missed the point of my post so no need to comment.

#27 – I am not going to live in a van. This used to be considered ultimate failure and now we’re talking investing so you can live in a van??? Common this is a house v. rent discussion of comparable properties. You can sell your house easier than you can cancel a lease so I don’t weight your comment on flexibility highly.

#39 – I’m talking fx here. Has nothing to do with the price of the underlying security in which you’re investing.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 7:02 pm

@#67 jess
“donald did not win ?”

+++++

There’s always next year……
:)

#71 David Hawke on 12.30.20 at 7:09 pm

An excellent question.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-whatever-happened-to-canadians-famous-pursuit-of-balance/

#72 WEXIT on 12.30.20 at 7:15 pm

It is quite possible Jake did the right thing. Maybe he loves living where he is, friends and family there. And just a short time of bad luck. If he did sell at the start of the pandemic, he would have missed the rise of 15% during the past 6 months, and might have never got back in the market.

And we know Jake is smarter than the average person, been from BC.

#73 Eco Capitalist on 12.30.20 at 7:16 pm

The general philosophy of Credit Unions is “members helping members”. If Jake is a long time member in good standing, helping him refinance his debt at a lower rate seems completely on point for the Credit Union.

#74 DON on 12.30.20 at 7:18 pm

#8 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 2:38 pm
Can we not move to extremes???

Should be:

Can we avoid moving to extremes???

Perhaps you’re just throwing this out there to get a reply? Is your thinking really that kids should be forced to not go out?

**********

Kids can go outside all they want…and Parents should ensure the necessary precautions are taken to distance as much as possible to ensure the safety of their parents/grandparents. Besides masks can also block that cool wind on the sled down the hill. Some parents concern me…more than their kids.

#75 the Jaguar on 12.30.20 at 7:18 pm

“In other words, the CU members took on all of the risk. Yep. It’s sweet of them. Maybe a bank wouldn’t have been as forgiving.” -GT

Jeepers. Those ancient warrior Banks just can’t catch a break in the favourable publicity department. My recollection is they offered 170 billion dollars worth of mortgage deferrals to anybody that could fog a mirror. As long as OSFI didn’t put the squeeze on capital requirements and didn’t treat them as past due payments.
The one that was the previous owner of Garth’s office building was founded in 1817. Older than the country, and if they had been managing our finances we wouldn’t be in the deep hole our Prime Minister dug for us. ( He had some help from grifters).

I figure Jake, purportedly living on Van Isle, probably works in tourism or on the Ferrie Boats. He’s in his late forties or early fifties and the ‘skin he has in the game’ is likely due to market appreciation due to all those nakedly rich and always arrogant Albertans retiring out there. Hell, Parksville should just be annexed as part of Alberta. Sort of like our own little Hawaiian Island.
Jake has probably refinanced his home at least once and it cannot be presumed that any previous incarnation wasn’t insured. He took the deferrals and the CERB as insurance and because he could. He deals at a credit union because his old Bank of British Columbia was taken over by Big Red, and broke his heart. I see him driving a Chrysler product.

Anybody else who wants their palm read via the Jaguar has to send Garth a $25.00 donation to his favourite dog shelter. Mercy.

#76 jess on 12.30.20 at 7:21 pm

Moderna Vaccine Shipments to Texas Delayed … – Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › moderna-vacc…
8 hours ago — At least three shipments of Moderna Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine arrived in Texas last week with signs that the shots had strayed from their required temperature range, prompting a delay in other deliveries, according to the state hospital association.
Missing: falling ‎| Must include: falling

#77 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 7:22 pm

Hmmm. I have a story to tell myself about the position I’m in after this past disastrous year. I have held off telling it here because I know I’ll probably get a beating for parts of it. What the hell. Here goes. I suspect people will find it interesting to say the least. I’ll try to make it a short story but it won’t be.
I was laid off near the end of this past January due to the poor economic conditions in Calgary. I was 62 years old. I had spent 44 years in the service end of the car biz and most of the last 27 years at the same dealership. I was always the top producing service advisor they had…even right to the end. Problem was that I was also the highest paid. They paid me zero vacation pay on termination as they added up sick days they had paid me for over the previous 5 years and called them as vacation paid days. Nice. Anyways, since I was laid off before Covid struck in March I had qualified for a year’s worth of EI at max rate. The docs I got from EI at the time said the term would end at the end of February, 2021. It turns out they lied as they ended my EI at the end of November with no notice and no reason. I’m appealing. I applied for multiple jobs in my field but my age has been a big factor and Covid effects on the already damaged economy made it worse. Plus, I wasn’t keen on sticking my 62 year old face back into front line retail with the virus so active to be honest.
A little bit of background. I got divorced at the end of ’08 and paid big jack in alimony for over 7 years and child support for 10 including helping put my honor student daughter through university. I had also lost a bunch of money in mining stocks due to the Bre-X fiasco years back. So, in other words, I had minimal savings other than a modest inheritance from my parents who both passed away in the last two years. That money is invested and has done well so far.
I’m the guy who lives in a large 40 foot diesel motorhome on a wilderness property out in the foothills west of Calgary. I bought the coach for cheap after the divorce and the big financial crash of ’08. It was a great purchase as it has allowed me to live on a million dollar property for only 600/month for the last seven years. The coach has saved me so much in rent it has paid fopr itself. Unfortunately, two months after I was laid off the owner of the property listed it for sale. He believes he has a buyer and now I am moving from here this coming May. I am currently selling off possessions I won’t need and I have a couple of vehicles I will sell in the early spring. Being that I am a wilderness oriented guy who owns a fine running motorhome my plan is to camp for free off grid this coming summer either in B.C. or Alberta. Late next fall I will cross the border (if open) and head south to the Arizona desert and camp there on BLM land for almost free for most of the winter. Off grid. No drinking, no vaping, no rent, no utilities. I have signed up for Elon Musk’s Starlink internet as it seems perfect for my nomad position. Now here is where I’ll get beat up I think. I have debated whether to draw my CPP early (I’m now 63) which would lessen the impact on my meager savings and investments. Both sides of my family have multiple people who have lived to be almost 100 years old. I feel great for my age and suspect I have a long ways to go. Therefore, I am really reluctant to reduce my future government pension amounts by pulling it early. I am very single and completely debt-free. Let me say that if it wasn’t for Trudeau’s war on Alberta and Covid-19 on top of that I would be working. I am confident of that. My resume is stellar. But, you’ve got to roll with the punches I guess. Adventure awaits. Strange times. Thanks for reading.

#78 the Jaguar on 12.30.20 at 7:23 pm

Oh crap. I didn’t read all the comments. I see Van Isle posted. I figured him for Duncan area.

#79 Long-Time Lurker on 12.30.20 at 7:26 pm

Zoolander 3. Script update.

Location: At the office of Prime Minister Zoolander.

Seamus Montgomery, the Federal Energy Minister enters the office of Prime Minister Zoolander and tosses a report onto his desk. Prime Minister Zoolander looks up to him from his chair.

Seamus Montgomery, Federal Energy Minister: “Prime Minister Zoolander, your green energy plan is going to fail. We need to hire an engineering firm to conduct a feasibility study. The renewable energy sources are insufficient for our needs and we won’t be able to build nuclear power plants fast enough to meet your targets. For crying out loud, we didn’t even get any new infrastructure completed in your first four years of office. Now we’re going to be building new nuclear power plants in 10 years to power our cities?”

PM Zoolander smiles then breaks out laughing.

PM Zoolander: “Ha, ha, ha! Beam me up, Seamus! Feasibility study… engineering firm… This isn’t Space Trek we’re dealing with!”

PM Zoolander tosses the report into a trash can.

PM Zoolander: “This isn’t some science fiction movie, Seamus. I believe we can power our country with wind that blows without stopping and with solar panels that work at night powered by starlight and moonlight… and on dark, cloudy nights by firefly light. Now get back to work.”

Montgomery: “With all due respect, Prime Minister, I’m giving her all she can take! The Federal Energy Plan can’t take any more of your nonsense!”

PM Zoolander: “Damn it, Seamus, I’m a politician, not an engineer! We’re going forward with this energy plan come hell or high water. Now damn the photon torpedoes and full speed ahead!”

#80 Sheesh on 12.30.20 at 7:26 pm

#43 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 5:18 pm

I have two teen age boys

I have been with my girl since 1989 I was 16 years old. We Married in 2007.

The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998.

I have around $700K of equity in the house…Best thing I ever did and I was only 21 at the time.
…….
So, you were 16 in ‘89, 21 when you bought the house 9 yrs later in 98. Married your sweetie in ‘07 and have two teenagers (13 yr old twins I presume, since the maker frowns upon sex prior to marriage).
Cool story.

#81 Nonplused on 12.30.20 at 7:27 pm

#162 Stoph on 12.30.20 at 1:58 pm

That is not far off from what I have been arguing except:

Hydro is mostly built out. There aren’t that many good sites left. And storage capacity drops every year as the reservoirs fill with sediment.

Hydro pumping is extremely inefficient. It is suitable for peak demand periods only. If solar ever did get built out so that it could provide excess power during the day this might be an option however.

Lights aren’t much of a demand anymore now that LED is pretty much the only option, but you are correct on the other power uses. When you turn on that clothes dryer a whole lot of power is going out the side of the house. Modern dishwashers save a lot of water but they do it by using more power (longer run times). Dinner gets cooked with electricity, and usually in the dark in Canada. Maybe you can get a gas stove or dryer but that isn’t helping the CO2 concerns. And the furnace will be running all night when it is 40 below, so you need either a whole lot of electricity or some electricity and some gas (CO2 concerns again) just when the sun doesn’t come out for days and never at night.

Solar and air conditioning are a good fit but man do you need a lot of solar to run an air conditioner. And then a cloud drifts overhead and the whole system shuts down.

Without batteries (and lots of them), you are correct that supply has to exactly equal demand or the line voltage either surges or collapses, both of which are bad. Utilities handle this using something called “ancillary services”. This means there is always a turbine spinning somewhere at less than 100% capacity, usually natural gas fired, so that as the demand increases or decreases they can adjust the amount of fuel being burned to the exact load. But that ain’t cheap. It gets baked into the utility bill. You have to pay for that turbine to exist in the first place and also be spinning (consuming fuel, incurring maintenance costs) whether it is being used or not.

I have done my solar experiments on my RV. It does dramatically reduce the amount of gas I have to pack along for my generator. But the fact is you have to spend as much on batteries as you do on panels, and I am still using AGM not lithium so they last about 5 years. That means over the long run I spend about 4 times as much on batteries as I did on the panels. I need them anyway so it is a sunk cost I suppose. And I still need to pack a generator with a full tank of gas in case it rains.

So the main problems with solar are three-fold: It is expensive, it is intermittent so you need a lot of batteries (that don’t last long), and you still need a backup generator. That is why most RV’ers skip the solar and just get the generator. It is 1/3 the cost over the long run. And it can run the A/C (although whew, that takes a lot of gas).

#82 Long-Time Lurker on 12.30.20 at 7:28 pm

Feds throw support behind development of mini nuclear reactors

BY THE CANADIAN PRESS

Posted Dec 18, 2020 9:51 am PST Last Updated Dec 18, 2020 at 10:02 am PST

TORONTO — Federal Energy Minister Seamus O’Regan says nuclear power is essential to meeting Canada’s climate-change goals.

O’Regan says mini nuclear plants, known as small modular reactors, are a key part of that strategy.

The minister announced federal support today for developing the new technology.

He says Canada can’t afford to ignore nuclear energy.

Doing so, he says, could be costly and risk us missing emission targets.

He says the world is watching Canada’s approach to developing small modular reactors.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/18/feds-throw-support-behind-development-of-mini-nuclear-reactors/

#83 n1tro on 12.30.20 at 7:30 pm

#21 KNOW IT ALL on 12.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Nurse tests positive for COVID-19 despite recent vaccine!!
———–
Stop your fear mongering. The article says it is expected.

“Patients don’t immediately develop COVID-19 protection after being vaccinated.”

Especially only 6 days after when the symptoms manifested, which means the nurse was infected prior to the vaccine shot.

Let us know if the nurse dies or otherwise the rest of us will just assume he is practicing for the next choreographed Tic Tok dance video.

#84 the Jaguar on 12.30.20 at 7:34 pm

“Of course we have savings. I also don’t consider a mortgage payment as debt (you gotta live somewhere). I just took a vacation from that debt for 6 months. I resumed payments as soon as the deferral program ended.”

This is a dodge. ( yikes, maybe I was right about the Chrysler product!). Your mortgage sure as hell is debt, and more than that it is a contractural agreement you made with your lender. To take the deferrals is to proclaim you were under financial hardship, but you were not based on your own statements about savings. You took them because you could. You asked for deferrals offered under financial hardship when you were not in that situation. Own it.

#85 Arcticfox on 12.30.20 at 7:38 pm

Hey Garth..recently listened to Jim Grant of Interest Rate Observer fame(smart guy). Did you know that institutional pension funds are selling unhedged vol to facilitate cash flow. Actually, the hedge is selling more as Vix spikes under the anticipation of further cb puts. The band keeps on stretching..fascinating !

#86 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 7:40 pm

Oh, just in case someone wants to take me to task for vaping and expecting to live a long life. My grandfather smoked three packs of cigarettes a day until he was 55 when he had three heart attacks. Then he quit cold turkey but still liked his drinks. Right up until he passed away at one month short of 100 years old. At the time he passed I believe he was the oldest surviving WW1 amputee in at least western Canada. Might have been all of Canada. My grandmother on my mother’s side smoked occasionally as well and lived up to her late nineties. Tough people. No, I’m not going anytime soon. Good news I guess. I’ll make it work.

#87 yvr_lurker on 12.30.20 at 7:55 pm

@#43 vanisle
“The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998………..
#48
……..I have around $700K of equity in the house…”

+++++

So… you still owe 200k ?
In 22 years you have paid off 25k?

———————
This was my question Mr.crowded…. somehow the numbers makes no sense as after 22 years even with a 10K equity loan, one should be close to being done with the original mortgage…. not for me to judge and we should just wish them the best.

#88 Party like it's 2021! on 12.30.20 at 7:59 pm

#41 cramar on 12.30.20 at 5:16 pm

My wife out for a walk the other day and passed a sign posted at a credit union. It advertised a 5-year mortgage at 1.98%. Party on!

The RE party will end like any New Year’s Eve parties tomorrow night. Someone is going to die!

——————————————–

Perhaps they are the lucky ones! The rest of us will have to deal with a hangover for the next decade, if not longer.

#89 Nonplused on 12.30.20 at 8:01 pm

#156 Faron on 12.30.20 at 12:28 pm

Long response so I don’t know I’ll do much quoting but let’s jump in.

Econ 101 (I took a university level course, engineers at that time had to get 6 courses outside of engineering over their 4 years. I also took a Communications and English course which were both way more fun than differential equations. So anyway…..)

The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is the supply and demand curves. If the demand for a product rises, the price will rise to encourage more production. Similarly if the supply of a product falls the price will rise until the demand falls to the level of current production. So yes, governments handing out money can cause increased production, but not without increased prices. To increase production, without a shift in the so-called “S-curve” (like the invention of the assembly line), prices must rise. And they rise for everybody who doesn’t back out for demand side reasons.

As for Amazon wealth, some of it is real for sure, and some of it is notional. Bezos built an extremely successful company. But it cannot be converted to cash the government can spend without either taxing cashflow (which they already do) or forcing the sale of shares. But sell to whom?

As for Mackenzie Scott, I do not know whether she generated $6 billion in actual cash or gave shares “in kind”, which is more or less what Gates and Buffet are doing. This is still good charitable stuff like a university endowment fund, but it means the charity ends up with shares, not cash. The shares are then expected to throw off cash for funding charity endeavors long term, or they can be sold if cash is needed now. As long as the Robinhood traders are on standby.

And as for engineers not making mistakes, well, no. They do. But lives are at stake so the rigor is beyond anything you would see in politics, finance, or economics. First it is 4 years of hard schooling, then 3 years of supervised employment before you get your stamp, and then all of your proposals are reviewed before being accepted by people who have 10-20 years in the business, until you are the 10-20 person. And bridges still collapse from time to time. At that point you go before a board that can take away your accreditation if they find you did not pass the “reasonable practice” test (ie. you did something in your design that other engineers would not have). And you are definitely not allowed to step outside your area of expertise. Electrical engineers cannot design bridges. If such standards were in place for politicians and economists, the world would be a better place.

#90 DemoralizationAndAtomization on 12.30.20 at 8:02 pm

Congratulations on the achievement of the global police state.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55493934

#91 Lost in space on 12.30.20 at 8:04 pm

#83 n1tro on 12.30.20 at 7:30 pm
#21 KNOW IT ALL on 12.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Nurse tests positive for COVID-19 despite recent vaccine!!
———–
Stop your fear mongering. The article says it is expected.

“Patients don’t immediately develop COVID-19 protection after being vaccinated.”

Especially only 6 days after when the symptoms manifested, which means the nurse was infected prior to the vaccine shot.

Let us know if the nurse dies or otherwise the rest of us will just assume he is practicing for the next choreographed Tic Tok dance video.

____________________________

Agreed. Not to mention … I thought these vaccines only had a 95% efficacy. So why should we be surprised?

#92 twofatcats on 12.30.20 at 8:07 pm

#43 vanisle

Ever notice how the ‘experts’ who bless us with their brilliant investment advice and extremely detailed lifestyle decisions in the comments section are always backstopped by a government pension, or a spouse’s government pension? In other words, their advice comes cheap, and is cheap.

You get what you pay for.

#93 yvr_lurker on 12.30.20 at 8:10 pm

#73
Calgary Car Guy
—————————-
I have always liked your posts, and I believe you are the fellow who loves Kananaskis and the Turner valley just like I do. No crowds, no bus loads of tourists from Asia, lots of wildlife, scenic vistas, very few hotels, and largely pretty pristine. It works well for our family as ee can just hike a little deep in Peter Lougheed park and be away from people, but bear spray is needed.
I am sorry to hear about your situation, and I am not sure what the best plan would be. However, I would not give up yet on finding employment in your area, and perhaps to find another similar arrangement for your RV that you have now. Late spring will look better and when that happens people will be spending $$$ on cars again for the long commute to work….I would try to hold on for a few more years in a job before setting off as a nomad, as if the nomad situation does not work out it will be harder to find a position the longer you have not had a job….

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 8:16 pm

@#77 CCG
Interesting story.
A friend of mine had almost the EXACT same thing happen to him a few years back.
Divorced, two kids, she got everything/ house, etc.
38 years as a GM shop foreman/manager….at 61 years old…….Got wacked. No severance.
He borrowed from relatives for a trailer.
He loves cars and loves to drive.
He drew his CPP early and works delivering cigarettes, pot and e-smokes for a large company.
They want older, bondable, mature men to do the deliveries.
He loves it.
Easy, no stress, 3 days a week.

Good luck.

#95 S.Bby on 12.30.20 at 8:23 pm

#77 CalgaryCarGuy

Wow that’s quite a story! I’m sorry you got laid off after 27 years of service, that sucks. I’m not sure what they did with your vacation vs. sick days is legal and you should look into that. It sounds like you have a good case to collect the remainder of your EI as well. Sh!t happens in life and it sounds like you tried to make the best of things so no one can fault you for anything.

Keep posting your adventures here because it sounds like it will be a fun trip!

#96 Drinking on 12.30.20 at 8:25 pm

#77 CalgaryCarGuy

Wow, I can relate! I get the feeling with all that you have gone through; you are one of those that will get by, why, you have never given up and have ideas for your future, good on you. I believe Garth has mentioned a few times now regarding your pension question! Bonne Chance!

#97 willworkforpickles on 12.30.20 at 8:29 pm

Endless unrestrained government debt creation to bail out the unproductive is a big lie to sway gullible voters their way.
In no way will government’s convey to their voter base that the end to free flowing cash kindness will come.
There in reality is precious little room left for much further debt creation/money printing with interest rates at rock bottom levels, production at its lowest and with unemployment rates approaching their all time highest levels since the Great Depression.
QE lowered and lowered interest rates over the years, the past decade…Stimulus/support payments of 2020 have worn that option to keep the economy afloat nearly all the way down and out. Confidence the debt can be repaid is wearing thin. Rumblings of discontent in the bond markets are stirring.
Raising taxes won’t carry the burden of paying interest on the national debt too far in the land of the now chronically unemployed.
Is a default on the debt in the cards?…the rickety fragile house of cards that constitutes the national debt.
Not before interest rates get jacked and then jacked some more for a time and time again.
….and therein… lies-pun intended… what the powers that be (the Fed)…governments (liars) and such won’t ever tell their voting public…at least not until after another adulating luv fest extraordinaire – ad-nauseum election puker is long over.

#98 Blacksheep on 12.30.20 at 8:31 pm

Where have I heard this before:

“If the government offers you (legal) money take it”

You did the right thing Jake, hold onto the house.

The inflationary wave is just getting started.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 8:35 pm

@#86 CCG
“My grandfather smoked three packs of cigarettes a day until he was 55 when he had three heart attacks. Then he quit cold turkey but still liked his drinks. Right up until he passed away at one month short of 100 years old. At the time he passed I believe he was the oldest surviving WW1 amputee in at least western Canada.”

++++

I dont know what the hell it is about Alberta.
The air?
The water?
The Cold?
But jay-zus!
I have a friend from Alta who’s family on BOTH sides have all lived into their late 90’s or early 100’s.
One tough old bastard uncle had a lung removed in WWII (bullet) and got lung cancer in the other one in the 1960’s… they removed half of THAT lung.
He lived to 93!
Both the Grandmother and Grandfather were Vets from WWII ( thats where they met, He was a pilot she was signal corp). He smoked like a chimney and drank like a fish until 97. She drove her car until 95 and lived until 101.
Depending on how much money you have saved…..longevity can be a blessing or a curse.

#100 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 8:35 pm

One last VAX POPULI comment Garth, if you will let me.

Finally figured out the much bandied about 5.3 billion doses production capacity for 2021.

Seems any article on vaccines uses that number but not a single CITATION by any of them, well, the many articles that I have read. Thank God for Bloomberg’s Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker whose data I used to answer my own question.

The numbers by manufacturer, million doses (contracts in place with countries):

Pfizer………………716
Moderna…………..411
AstraZeneca……2,925
Novavax…………1,284

Total = 5.336 Billion doses in 2021.

I have difficulty with Novavax as unlikely they will produce until mid-2021?

Also, the J&J vaccine and many others ignored (e.g., if they count Novavax they should also include J&J in the same boat in awaiting trial results and approvals and they have 346M doses in contracts.

Used the Bloomberg data and if you add up all the others incl. Russia and China vaccine efforts, 2021 production estimated to be:

8.15 Billion doses.

Sad data is that COVAX, meant to divert 20% of vaccine production to poor countries, has all of 700 million doses of 2021 production allocated to it (AstraZeneca 300M, UBI 200M and Sanofi/GSK 200M, the latter which has failed for those that need the vaccine the most, > 50 yr olds, but they are trying again).

————————————

A World were if you live in a rich country you get vax’d ahead of everyone else. If you are poor, oh well…you’ll just have to wait until 2022, 2023?

Humanity can and must do better than that.

#101 Seeker on 12.30.20 at 8:36 pm

@Calgary Guy #77
I think your plan is great, live simply, explore along route. We certainly don’t need as much stuff in our lives as most of us have. It is a nice story, usually I skip the really long ones, but yours seemed real, just telling it like it is. You are right it is harder to get back into the market as we get older, but there still may be other things you can do, like consult, or other possibilities, just keep your options open. I wish you the best and thanks for sharing your story, it was inspiring, letting go of stuff and setting off on your next adventure!

#102 Camille on 12.30.20 at 8:37 pm

I read it twice. A little empathy goes a long way. The way I read it circumstances beyond Jake’s control led him to lose his job subsequently collecting CERB and deferring his mortgage. He managed to remortgage and is now working full time. Glass half full.
Conversely, he lost his job and should have realized a change is upon him, sell his home, consolidate his wealth and free himself to relocate to better take advantage of opportunities. Glass half empty.
For Jake witlessness is not a virtue, but why do you say he has no assets? What he did (CERB, mortgage deferral) is legal and he got himself out of his mess. Maybe not you, but some people with means always see great action as the solution, because they can.

#103 devore on 12.30.20 at 8:40 pm

#68 Barb

Of course he’s a great risk for the bank… He’s been paying off his $200k mortgage for the last 22 years, and still has $200k left to pay off. They probably LOVE this guy!

#104 Ustabe on 12.30.20 at 8:49 pm

Ugly day outside today so I learned a few things from the Internet rather than take a hike. Things I will now share.

The number one country for government support of its oil and gas sector is Saudi Arabia. Number one in the world!

Guess who is number two? Right! Canada. In the world. Explain to me why Alberta is unhappy? Maybe they want to be Saudi Arabia?

The Trump administration has cause to celebrate! The USDA managed to release its food guidelines for 2020…on December 30, 2020. Wow, eh?

5 LA hospitals have declared “internal emergencies”
after running out of oxygen for the patients.

Lastly for tonight, a story.
When I left boarding school and took Grade 12 at a public high school I was heavily recruited by the football coach being built like a coureur des bois. I looked at the situation. 20 football players, 6 cheerleaders.

Then I looked at the drama dept. 60 females, 10 males, over half of whom voluntarily had removed themselves from the fields I wished to play on.

Happy New Year everyone…I’ll be even older the next time I post, respect your elders, we know stuff.

#105 Working's for Fools! on 12.30.20 at 8:52 pm

#17 3S is right.

Jake could have sold and used the profits to invest and pay his monthlies, but why would he when the Feds are dishing out CERB and other freebies while the banks are doling out a mortgage holiday? He knows if he sits and accepts the spoils, the house will just keep rising.

Here’s an example of how the RE run-up is distorting things like “productivity” in our country: I have a friend whose father gambled on RE bigtime (he didn’t have much skin in the game at all though). Bought said friend (his adult child) a house. Said friend has only worked full-time for two years in entire “career” of living in said house while collecting welfare. The father almost lost it all in a downturn, but thanks to quick central bank intervention, he actually made out like a bandit, but unfortunately died shortly after cashing in the gains. Said friend is now sitting on millions in inheritance and the house is worth a cool million too. So went from no career during entire adult lifetime while collecting welfare and living in a paid-off home to still no career while collecting on daddy’s fortune and living in paid-off home.

I know, I know, you’ll accuse me of being jealous, but I assure you I’m not. I like working and being independent, and I am glad things turned out well for said friend.

But I do worry what this run-up is going to do for future productivity in this country. Everyone wants to get rich the easy way on borrowed money and the lesson so far learned has been to bank on all the freebies in whatever form they come, go big on housing with lots of borrowed cash and watch greedily while it effortlessly rises in value. And of course, forget about traditional and nostalgic notions such as productivity, hard work and disciplined investing. You just won’t get ahead. I’m sorry to say it but when the chips fall, the friend with the house, inheritance and no job won’t be the one shouldering the tax bill. It’ll be the 9 to 5-ers like myself who will be paying for them to retain their tax-free gratuities.

But how long will this strategy of taxing the most productive and solid elements of society for the benefit of the rest pan out? I fear it won’t be long before the majority realize that collecting UBI while not producing (or while producing under the table) and betting on housing are the only way to go. Dark Internet will encourage rise of such activity as well as bitcoin and other gambling.

Look out below when the tax base officially erodes and we’re nothing but a bunch of lazy bums with a huge, overblown RE bubble on our hands.

#106 Kurt on 12.30.20 at 8:55 pm

#77 CalgaryCarGuy

No idea why you’re sharing, but best of luck to you!

I disagree regarding “Trudeau’s war on Alberta”. We built an economy that required that Alberta oil production grow at a rate significantly above the growth of the world demand for oil, into perpetuity. This was always going to end badly; world events and Federal ham-fistedness brought it to an end sooner than it would have otherwise, and probably with less pain. I can guarantee Albertans haven’t learned a thing, just like they learned nothing from the previous oil booms and collapses dating back a hundred years.

Anyway, glad you’ve found a way to enjoy life despite the way things have gone (regardless of your culpability). May the bus give you no surprises, may your health stay excellent, and may all your sunsets be beautiful.

#107 Pete on 12.30.20 at 9:00 pm

I would like to know what’s really going on. Finance gurus are predicting a bullish 2021 all around. WHO warns of covid staying as an endemic wart on humanity. Gold and bitcoin tell a tail of shtf. Politicians tell us we are heading for recovery and prosperity in 2021. I just need to know if I should start packing for New Zealand.

#108 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 9:01 pm

#50 “truefacts”

Firstly, Sweden has a population of 10 MM people, Canada 38 MM. At least try to compare the data correctly.

Second and better, start visiting AftonBladet Sweden’s largest daily MSM outlet and subscribe to them on Twitter as I do and have for months now. Won’t you be surprised at what the Swedes themselves actually think about Covid and their effort (and they are starting to lockdown now as well).

Finally, some ACTUAL DATA THAT COMPARES APPLES TO APPLES:

Sweden vs. lockdown Canada deaths per million Covid (recent troughs in data due to XMas reporting outages largely in Sweden, kind of like ON vaccinating):

https://i.imgur.com/Vlhe6x0.png

Sweden vs. lockdown Canada new cases per million Covid:

https://i.imgur.com/PTftkuU.png

Sweden new cases per million vs. lockdown EU:

https://i.imgur.com/OesUGiG.png

And finally and the latest, how the European CDC sees Sweden relative to the rest of Europe for Covid (looking pretty bronzed to me):

https://i.imgur.com/nUSBQJH.png

————————

In conclusion, please leave numbers alone.

#109 down and out on 12.30.20 at 9:01 pm

Who is running Ontario government ,we have the #2 guy on vacation since 13th and Doug pretends to be shocked after finding out he was gone .Yeah your side kick is missing for days in a crisis putting out phony twits .I am more disappointed in Doug(did he know ) ,Rick’s holiday break for vaccines is another stunner and he was a general ,wow boys lets take a break the enemy(covid) won’t notice. Shameful

#110 Sail Away on 12.30.20 at 9:09 pm

#43 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 5:18 pm

I’m Vanisle. The first thing I want to say to you Garth…We were meant to procreate.

The house is in Victoria BC is worth $900K…I paid $225K back in 1998. I have made accelerated bi-weeky payments of $465 from the beginning.

—————

Is that your pickup line?

Be that as it may, if you’re currently paying under $1,000 per month for housing in Vic, that sounds like a win.

However… if you get in a bind, I will happily settle your remaining mortgage debt for 30% ownership. Another win.

#111 kommykim on 12.30.20 at 9:11 pm

RE: #50 truefacts on 12.30.20 at 5:40 pm
“What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand?” – Garth

Yeah, because it’s worked so well for us?

What if we didn’t have lockdowns? In Sweden the coronavirus was allowed “to let rip”.

=======================================

Comparing ALL deaths between the two countries (Without even adjusting for population: Canada has 3.74x the pop of Sweden) when you really should be comparing deaths per 100,000 due to COVID is just dumb and tells us very little.

#112 Flop... on 12.30.20 at 9:11 pm

Hey you guys in Ontario.

I think I found a way not to disappoint Doug Ford by showing him an empty fridge.

Put Rod Phillips inside of it…

M46BC

#113 Dolce Vita on 12.30.20 at 9:14 pm

#76 jess

Nice catch.

The numbers I calculated in my #29 Comment are OPTIMISTIC. Forgot to mention that. Lengthy enough so cut the editorializing as much as possible. My bad.

You are proving that point and thank you for the info.

#114 Tulips on 12.30.20 at 9:24 pm

“This won’t end well”. The theme of the bystanders for the past decade and a half as everyone else experienced the massive gains of real estate. Fact is, this won’t end at all, despite the cost. Futures of our kids be damned, policy makers have a mandate to keep real estate afloat at any cost. You don’t have to agree with this policy, I certainly don’t, but the greatest fools are the ones who will continue to wait for change in policy that will allow the gasbag to deflate. It isn’t going to happen.

#115 Garth's Son Drake on 12.30.20 at 9:24 pm

I look at it differently. Having a house gives you access to credit. If you don’t have access to credit you can’t play ball. This is why renters literally become homeless when the wheels fall off.

Everyone I know gets LOCs (HELOCS) through their home asset. They typically carry a zero balance playing stocks and crypto monthly paying back what they dip into and taking a profit on soaring yields.

Equities, crypto and house prices go hand-in-hand and are correlated. Inject stimulus into the system, it is going up. Take the stimulus away and it is going down. Keep stimulus stable but not to hot and we see plateauing.

The entire game is so obvious. And, if you have a hard asset like a house you can leverage even more as you can tap into equity markets.

Even my banker admitted to running 40k HELOC to dip in and out of stocks without carrying a balance and therefore not having to pay interest, yet reaping gains on equities.

And worst case scenario, you have extended credit to last a bit longer if the wheels come completely off. Gives your breathing room to figure out big surprises.

Lastly, who would want to be renting in a pandemic? Why would you sell your house in a pandemic? The biggest benefit of having a house (aside from access to more capital) is the fact you can enjoy it, live peacefully, have a yard that you control and thoroughly enjoy, which I am pretty sure most people will throw money at – even if it is luxury – to live in a way that is satisfying. Sometimes it might not be the best use of money, but it sure does feel good to live in such a way if you can.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 9:26 pm

@#112 Flop

“Put Rod Phillips inside of it…”

+++
Nah. Its the new green energy mandate… Save energy.
Just put his rod in the fridge

#117 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 9:26 pm

Re #89 by crowdedelevatorfartz
I dont know what the hell it is about Alberta.
The air?
The water?
The Cold?
But jay-zus!
———————————————————–
Thank you. Your post actually brought tears to my eyes and I’m not sure why. I think maybe because we are really hurting in Alberta these days and we are not used to it. We have always been a proud province…a tough province. It seems that so many Canadians now are relishing the beating we are taking from Liberal utopian dreams and Covid on top of that. Maybe your post brought a more personal connection to things.

#118 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 9:39 pm

You took them because you could. You asked for deferrals offered under financial hardship when you were not in that situation. Own it.

Not really…I could have slugged it out. Why not take the deferral? They offered it.

#119 n1tro on 12.30.20 at 9:41 pm

#91 Lost in space on 12.30.20 at 8:04 pm
#83 n1tro on 12.30.20 at 7:30 pm
#21 KNOW IT ALL on 12.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Nurse tests positive for COVID-19 despite recent vaccine!!
____________________________

Agreed. Not to mention … I thought these vaccines only had a 95% efficacy. So why should we be surprised?
————
It’s like getting the flu even though you got the flu shot earlier in the season. This is not news. If the news was “Nurse dies of covid-19 despite being vaccintated month prior.” <– now that would be newsworthy but I guess that summarizes 2020…a lot of overblown click bait that supposedly passes for news.

#120 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 9:44 pm

Re #106 by Kurt
No idea why you’re sharing, but best of luck to you!
—Plus the other comments about our energy industry.
—————————————————————-
Kurt, I appreciate your wishes of luck. Other than our original ‘luck’ of being blessed with some of the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world Alberta has not relied on luck. People from every province in Canada have come to Alberta for decades to work hard in often tough conditions to make a good living. Alberta was always willing to share the huge profits here with the rest of Canada. We did and we still would be if the Trudeau Liberals hadn’t attacked our province’s industry with their unrealistic ideals. Sure, fossil fuel energy will come to a close at some point. Even Albertans will admit that. But to kill the industry before there is a viable replacement is insanity for one, and to do it in such a short time frame is extremely hurtful to the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of your fellow Canadians for another. The world will need fossil fuels for decades yet to come, that is for sure. After this past year of Trudeau’s largesse you would think that Canadians across the country would welcome and help the return of a profitable Alberta.

#121 DUFFER on 12.30.20 at 9:45 pm

I have been reading this blog for a long time and usually agree with your assessment, but this time you are sounding like a 19th century robber baron.
Re: Jake
What is so shameful about still paying a mortgage after 22 years and why should the CU refuse him for missing 6 payments after he made the previous 250+ payments.
Some people need the full 25 year amortization … strange but that is the old standard.
I have been mortgage free for over 30 years but I expect my situation was different than Jakes.
We went to our CU to renew after 5 years and they went stupid like you are suggesting (charge all the traffic will bear). I may have been young but not that easily cowed so I walked across the street and after a pleasant talk to the branch manager moved everything from the CU and never looked back.

#122 Faron on 12.30.20 at 9:47 pm

Wow, I’m amazed at the dogpiling judgement of and scorn for Vanisle and his choices/beliefs. Sounds like you are doing just fine and I’d a million times over rather see someone who lost a job take the mortgage holiday than someone fully employed who did or the even more loathsome group who demanded rent from tenants while doing so.

Sounds like you have a great family and are a good parent doing well in an expensive part of the world yet the knobs here have piled onto you for not living to their idea of perfection. Sheesh.

Keep on keeping on. I live at the border of Fernwood and Oaklands. Chances are slim, but perhaps we’ll meet one day.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 9:49 pm

@#115 CCG
No worries brudda.
I lived in Alberta for a year and a half in 80-81.
Awesome time. Beautiful country. tons of fun.

I read an economist article one time that stated …
“Most people will have three totally different careers in their life time”
I’m a bit stupider than most….
I’m on career #4 and making the best money of my life…

Check out a job as a Bonded cigarette delivery driver or something similar…..
Easy, stress free, part time…..

#124 twofatcats on 12.30.20 at 9:49 pm

The real estate craze is unproductive in other ways. In our small town, landlords of old 1930’s taverns are closing the rat-infested downstairs to the public and renting the rooms upstairs to welfare tenants. The taxpayers (ie. Ontario government) automatically deposit the rent into the landlord’s bank account. Since there is no incentive to upgrade these flophouses, there is no incentive to improve the neighbourhood. New businesses will not open in these neighbourhoods.

#125 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 9:50 pm

Re #106 Kurt
About bus surprises.
At first I was a bit nervous about owning this complicated and expensive piece of equipment. Then I came to realize that it is my home and homes require maintenance and repairs from time to time. You don’t own a house for free. There are times you need to pay to replace the roof or the furnace, the fencing, etc, etc. My coach is no different when you look at it with that in mind. In fact, I suspect it will be cheaper to maintain over the long run. Plus, I get to have different views out my windows. ;)

#126 Drinking on 12.30.20 at 9:56 pm

#102 Camille

As you said; because they can! That is exactly what is wrong with this world, WE scandal, people collecting Cerb when they dam well knew they were not eligible for it and now cry foul; politicians telling us to stay home while they fly off to exotic countries, mask less idiots telling us that 15 plus thousand deaths in less then a year in Canada is just a flu; why, because they can; hooray!! What a joke!!!

#127 Soviet Capitalist on 12.30.20 at 10:04 pm

Do you know why financial institutions give away cheap credit?! It’s not because their leaders are ignorant. On the contrary, because they are very smart. Not only will they not pay for the consequences, but they will receive bonuses from the bailouts when things get really bad due to their actions. Guess who will be the suckers paying for this fraud?! Take a look at the mirror.

#128 Doug in London on 12.30.20 at 10:06 pm

I have a better idea. He should have taken that 20 grand LOC, bought some stocks and equity ETFs when they were on sale in March, sold the house, paid off the LOC and probably retire many years earlier than he ever thought would be possible.

#129 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 10:06 pm

Thank you to everyone with their kind and encouraging responses. To yvr_lurker…..There is a part of me that agrees with what you are saying about trying to stay in the game for now….but it’s hard to do that and be cost effective. I live in a large motorhome and in a very few months I need somewhere to park it. Either I store it at about 100 bucks a month and rent an apartment for much more than what I am paying now or I live in a RV park for 800.00 a month at least with no job hoping for the best. To be frank, I was treated so shoddily after so many years of loyal hard work I am now pretty discouraged about wanting to get back into that business. I clearly remember being warned about the car business by an older employee way, way back in 1976 on my first day on the job when I was 18 years old. I should have listened. No, I think it really is time to move on and make an adventure out of it.

#130 Doug t on 12.30.20 at 10:15 pm

#77 calgarycarguy

Listen to this man – this is what makes you strong – this is a survivor- this country needs more like him – god speed buddy

#131 Drinking on 12.30.20 at 10:21 pm

#45 truefacts

Swedish deaths so far are 8727; that is 861 deaths per million; it is a disaster comparing to their neighbors Norway and Finland, look it up!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 10:25 pm

Wow.
A 41 year old Republican Congressman…with the best medical help Congress can buy…….

I wonder when Trump and his 70 million followers……will finally admit this is a serious problem…..

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/29/nation/louisiana-congressman-elect-luke-letlow-dies-covid-19-41/

#133 Silent the people on 12.30.20 at 10:25 pm

Justin” the budget will balance itself” Trudeau
is putting our economy on a collision course
for destruction! This will not end well!

#134 KNOW IT ALL on 12.30.20 at 10:34 pm

#83 n1tro on 12.30.20 at 7:30 pm

Let us know if the nurse dies or otherwise the rest of us will just assume he is practicing for the next choreographed Tic Tok dance video.

————————————————————–

DAMN NITRO – Your as STUPID as they get!!

#135 Cal Guy on 12.30.20 at 10:38 pm

Could 2021 be worse than 2020? Seems like many democratic govts can’t get vaccine distributed effectively. Canada is a joke compared to other countries. They should have spent a chunk of the near $400 billion on rapid testing months ago. Rapid testing at airports and senior care homes. Have way more vaccine roll out. The gov’t has one of the lowest distribution rates compared to many other developed nations. No one has mentioned the mental health cost. B.C. has had way more opiod overdose deaths than Covid. I hope that 2021 will bring brighter days, but with gov’t flying by the seat of their pants I am not sure.

#136 Gogo on 12.30.20 at 10:49 pm

At least 50% of adults are not getting the vaccine within 1.5-2 years. Everyone says I’ll wait for some time. I don’t know a single person who will take it right away. That’s why we have the fear campaign about no flying without vaccine cutting off government services etc. Your vaccination calculations are as correct as the covid 19 models in March. Will not occur that way. Cheers.

#137 Ustabe on 12.30.20 at 11:03 pm

#115 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.30.20 at 9:26 pm

Thank you. Your post actually brought tears to my eyes and I’m not sure why. I think maybe because we are really hurting in Alberta these days and we are not used to it. We have always been a proud province…a tough province. It seems that so many Canadians now are relishing the beating we are taking from Liberal utopian dreams and Covid on top of that. Maybe your post brought a more personal connection to things.

Hey, Car Guy. Let me tell you that my mother, my father and a brother are all buried in Alberta. I still have remaining relatives who live in Alberta. My wife began her career in Alberta, I made most of my money in Alberta.

OK, that out of the way….you say you are not used to be really hurting (economically) in Alberta and I have to say that is wrong. My family has weathered the ups and downs of Alberta for decades. We lost a 3 million dollar investment (back when 3 million was real money) in an office building during one of the downturns you chose to forget. This current one is global, exacerbated by your Provincial politics. When you say you are not used to hurting in Alberta it is simply because you chose to forget history.

You say so many Canadians are relishing the beating you are currently taking. That certainly isn’t my experience. Sure, I read some opinion that has a bit of tone to it but mostly I read and hear critique of how your current government is making choices. Setting yourself up as victim when you arguably are not is the sign of someone who has given up, not someone who has been defeated. Stats released today show that Canada ranks behind only Saudi Arabia in its financial support for the O&G sector.

I’m a bit familiar with the RV industry and Alberta is experiencing a boom along with the rest of North America. Sales through the roof. RV dealerships need service advisors. In fact if you go to Indeed you will see four postings currently active, right this minute.
Aidre x 2, Lethbridge and Grand Prairie.

Last, document/parcel couriers (as in not UPS, Purolater, etc) are constantly looking for drivers. ICS is unionized, pays well and you can make good coin. I have a retired military buddy who is dragging it out til his pension becomes indexed. He drives a station wagon, the Ford Focus type that you can buy at auction for $2,000, works maybe 6 hours in a day but more often is back home after 4 or 5 and bills just under $40,000 per year. For driving around and delivering envelopes/parcels in the law/insurance/ notary sectors. Also diamond drill bits to dentists and titanium/gold to dental labs. He has what is considered a part time route, the full time guys make somewhere in the $70-80,000 range and no where near the physical effort of the big truck couriers.

So, make some lame point about liberal utopian dreams or get back on the horse? Self pity or self improvement?

#138 westcdn on 12.30.20 at 11:52 pm

I read a book named “Accidental Empires: How the Boys of Silicon Valley Make Their Millions, Battle Foreign Competition, and Still Can’t Get a Date”.

It was written in 1996 and was a fun read. Lots was said about Bill Gates and his tendency to sue (much like Trump). He was definitely out to monetize.

It was kind of ironic as a champion of free enterprise he basically stole DOS and trapped IBM (big blue in the days) to royalties. Only Apple/Steve Jobs gave him a challenge and he bought them off when they fell on hard times.

Fortunes were made and and lost – they were just people.

#139 the Jaguar on 12.30.20 at 11:58 pm

@ #118 vanisle on 12.30.20 at 9:39 pm
You took them because you could. You asked for deferrals offered under financial hardship when you were not in that situation. Own it.____
Not really…I could have slugged it out. Why not take the deferral? They offered it.___

Again you just confirmed that you took advantage of an offer made available to support those who might be in economic need due to an unexpected pandemic. The offering was meant to catch those who might ‘fall’ economically due to the Pandemic. But you were never in any danger of falling. You again admit to savings and the ability to ‘slug it out’. Why not take the deferral? Because it was not intended for you.
If you passed a food bank where there was a shelf of food with a sign ” For those in dire need of food to feed your families, please help yourself”, would you help yourself because as you say ” They offered it”? The danger being the depletion of resources intended for those in dire need? Or in the case of Federal financial assistance adding to the debt that future generations will bear?

I am not going to say that I don’t judge you because you took the deferrals under circumstances intended as economic aid when you required none as evidenced by your own statements. I do. You did what many also did, because as you say it was ‘offered’.

You can defend your reasons for ‘taking the money’ till the cows come home. In the final analysis it all speaks to ‘character’.
Yesterday Garth asked ‘Meanwhile, who ever imagined Canadians – compliant, obedient and polite folks – could be such tools? ‘
It seem that ‘values and character’ set sail’ as evidenced by all the inconvenient truths being unearthed. We have all the cracks in our societal infrastructure as do our neighbours to the south, but not the courage to look into the mirror and claim them.

Vanity without ownership of personal failings is rising faster than active Covid cases…………….

Where is Bill Grable these days? Or others like him…

#140 Linda on 12.31.20 at 12:00 am

I’m recalling the fallout when the housing bubble burst in Alberta back in the 1980’s. NEP had a lot to do with it, but nationally mortgage interest rates were insanely high, as much as 22%. When the economy imploded, banks wouldn’t renegotiate mortgages so literally thousands walked away, leaving the banks with the properties. It took better than two solid years for the banks to offload those foreclosures, which they hadn’t actually wanted. What they wanted was the mortgage payments, which people couldn’t provide because their jobs had gone ‘poof’. Like today, pretty much everyone had leveraged themselves to the hilt – new house, car, clothes, furniture, vacations – everything was on credit. So when I read stories like ‘Jakes’ it frankly sends a chill down my spine. Except this time rates are at the lowest ever recorded & the CU lender knows how to keep the payments flowing. Telling that it prefers that to selling the asset.

#141 truefacts on 12.31.20 at 12:04 am

#108 Dolce/111 Kommykim.

Guys – you’re not getting it. I gave a few years data for both countries, but to compare year to year in each country – not to compare countries to each other. Population differences is irrelevant in this sort of comparison.

Covid has NOT spiked overall deaths in Sweden. In Canada, deaths have spiked. It’s too big a number to be random.

So what are we doing wrong? Seems reasonable to ask…

#142 ConAir2020 on 12.31.20 at 12:41 am

Does anyone know of any scientific papers dealing with masks and eyeglasses over this virus?
Thanks in advance.

#143 Jelly Clerkon on 12.31.20 at 1:05 am

DELETED

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.20 at 1:28 am

#51 KM
Pull your head out of your ass it isn’t meant to be worn as a hat.
———————————-
Now that is a funny one.
Take note CEF.

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.20 at 1:43 am

#73 Eco Capitalist on 12.30.20 at 7:16 pm
The general philosophy of Credit Unions is “members helping members”. If Jake is a long time member in good standing, helping him refinance his debt at a lower rate seems completely on point for the Credit Union.
———————-
That was true a long time ago.
I’m not sure there are any CUs left that go by that philosophy.
Maybe the Flin Flon Credit Union.

#146 Gg on 12.31.20 at 1:48 am

Let’s run a poll ….
How many think that the Canadian govt will “print” more money in 2021 than it did in 2020
I thinks it’s a guarantee it will

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.20 at 2:10 am

#99 CEF
Tired of the anecdotes of people smoking 3 packs a day, eating steak and potatoes for breakfast and chasing it all down with a a quart of Rye.
And still riding the Rodeo way past 100 at the Calgary Stampede.

#148 BillyBob on 12.31.20 at 4:33 am

CalgaryCarGuy,

Sorry to hear of your situation. I too lost my livelihood in July after 2+ decades with much uncertainty as to if it will ever return or when.

As someone who has always had “itchy feet”, acquired apparently from my Scandi grandfather who homesteaded in the prairies, I very much relate to the nomadic lifestyle. It isn’t for everyone, but from your past posts and this one, it doesn’t sound like you have romanticized it and are being realistic. If you don’t have access to a government teat, or like most Albertans are reluctant to rely on one, getting out of Canada isn’t a bad idea at all. At least in the short term. The country won’t float on debt forever.

You also sound about 1000x more interesting than the guy with the house in Victoria. Or just about any inhabitant of that boring, suffocatingly insular place. (I know that insufferably smug city very, very well.)

I hope things will improve for you, and know that not everyone wishes ill on Albertans. On the contrary I very much appreciate the outsized contributions the province has made to the country’s prosperity. I absolutely believe that this biting of the hand that feeds will yet turn out to be a disaster for the ROC.

Do check in to let us know how you make out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sxCFZ8_d84

#149 BillyBob on 12.31.20 at 4:43 am

Oh yeah.

And Jake’s an idiot.

In good company with large numbers.

Numbers like a trillion.

#150 Keen Reader on 12.31.20 at 5:43 am

@77 CalgaryCarGuy

Sorry about your being “retired early”. Then again, if you only had two years to live, would you keep working? Hold that thought for a moment.

Everyone has a sweet spot for when to retire, at the intersection of Money vs Time:
Too early = potentially run out of money
Too late = run out of time
Many friends found themselves in the second group, due to untimely death, illness or family constraints. Working “just a few more years” was a tragic choice for them. You may despise being forced into an early retirement, but our host often reminds us that time, not money, is the currency that truly matters.

You are still in your “Go” years, with health, energy and smarts, and seem passionate about the outdoors. Surely you have something to offer on that front. My twelve years in Alberta showed me how its massive, rear-round potential. Any idea how much guides earn on 7-day elk hunts? Let your passion make you become good, then make your being good sustain your passion.

Good luck, and do tell if bowhunting or fly-fishing is your thing!

#151 Sail Away on 12.31.20 at 7:23 am

#137 Ustabe on 12.30.20 at 11:03 pm

Re: Calgarycarguy is a whining wuss

———–

There ya go, Ustabe, take the boots to him. The milk of human kindness oozes from you like fermented fish juice.

#152 Sail Away on 12.31.20 at 8:14 am

#148 BillyBob on 12.31.20 at 4:43 am

Oh yeah.

And Jake’s an idiot.

—————

Too harsh, BB. Jake sounds like a productive member of society who’s established a safe and stable home for his family.

So he didn’t cash out, upend his family, and choose to become a renter? With all the logistics of teenagers and 22 years of established connection?

He had another option and took it. Good choice in my book.

#153 David Hawke on 12.31.20 at 8:15 am

What part of ‘Toronto is in lockdown with record infections’ do you not understand? Bad attitudes and poor decisions will only make this hell last longer. – Garth

The words of a childless blogger, eh!

The retort of a fool. You do your kids no favour by prolonging the current crisis. And, of course, you are finished here. – Garth

#154 Wrk.dover on 12.31.20 at 8:27 am

New RE refugee here in NS, (sold townhouse in Brampton) didn’t like his first electric inverter/heat pump, heating bill!

His solution, because natural gas in Ontario is so cheap is to install a propane furnace!!!!!

Gonna be entertaining when he sees what the tank refill costs for that monopoly.

Around here, the well to do, burn wood while the poor burn oil, because burning wood needs a huge initial investment, to produce your own and burn it for free happily ever after, while oil can be bought one jug at a time.

Maybe Ontario transplants should talk to the locals a little more before trying to live Ontario style here.

Just a drive by, looking at wood piles in nice yards and oil tanks leaning on the wall of run down houses should tell it all.

#155 Squire on 12.31.20 at 9:04 am

Thank you Garth for all you do. 2020 has been the craziest year I’ve experienced.
We’re all in the same ship called earth so there is no escape. Hopefully we are not moving towards Neo Feudalism but it sure seems like it at times.
The ‘woke’ are not so woke. Time to start thinking clearly and deal with real issues. 2021 can be a good start to that correct path.
Happy New Year 2021 to everyone and let’s all do our part to make it better.

#156 millmech on 12.31.20 at 9:05 am

Does anyone else find the irony of people being out and about enjoying the winter activities with their children are also the ones most terrified to work in an office setting.
The people that I know who are most against the jab and hate mask are the ones who WFH, they do not want this to end. This is utopia for them they go to Costco for an hour or two a week, have coffee with their groups of friends everyday all while being paid. The large group of people that I met who bike/do coffee together daily, all worked closely together pre covid but can not work together now as it is way to dangerous, they tell me over their lattes.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 9:21 am

@#147 PeePee
“Tired of the anecdotes of people smoking 3 packs a day, eating steak and potatoes for breakfast and chasing it all down with a a quart of Rye.”

++++

Better than the anecdotes of people eating strudel, picking potato’s before school and drinking quarts of milk like you?

Oh, right. I forgot.
You dont have any anecdotes.
Back to your boring, bean counting, life.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 9:27 am

@#152 Sail Away
“He had another option and took it.”

++++

Yup.
22 years later he still owes 90% of his mortgage and has a garage full of toys, a great scrapbook of holidays paid for with a Line Of Credit, a sporadic job situation and the wife’s pension to fall back on in retirement…..

#159 Penny Henny on 12.31.20 at 9:33 am

To Calgary Car Guy.
I believe you are eligible for Cerb but you cannot claim benefits for the time you were receiving EI.
This is from the Gov website, in particular note the last two points.

Who is eligible
The Benefit is available to workers:

-Residing in Canada, who are at least 15 years old;
-Who have stopped working because of reasons related to COVID-19 or are eligible for Employment Insurance regular or sickness benefits or have exhausted their Employment Insurance regular benefits or Employment Insurance fishing benefits between December 29, 2019 and October 3, 2020;
-Who had employment and/or self-employment income of at least $5,000 in 2019 or in the 12 months prior to the date of their application; and,
-Who have not quit their job voluntarily.

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/cerb-application.html

#160 millmech on 12.31.20 at 9:35 am

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/b-c-orders-restaurants-bars-and-stores-to-stop-liquor-sales-at-8-p-m-on-new-year-s-eve/ar-BB1cmlVa?ocid=msedgntp

When one reads the article you will notice that it is stated that cases have declined only because the testing declined, so it does not take much to see how this can be manipulated. You want more people inside ramp up testing 100%, you can now shut things down because of surge in cases, reduce testing by 60% and now you can reopen because of compliance.

#161 Penny Henny on 12.31.20 at 9:36 am

also to Calgary Car Guy.
-if you got punted without severance I would take the time to discuss with a lawyer. I believe you have a two year window to make a claim.

#162 TurnerNation on 12.31.20 at 9:47 am

The roofers went Uppa uppa onto the roof. Now the CRA is coming downa onto you.
Cash moneys. From IE newsletter:
…….
CRA wins court decision forcing roofing company to give over customer records
The federal agency uses data to fight tax evasion in the construction sector

By: Rudy Mezzetta May 13, 202012:43

In recent years, the CRA has made it a greater priority to target the “hidden economy” by dedicating more resources toward combatting non-compliance. According to an Ontario Ministry of Labour study cited in the decision, 28% of the construction industry’s economic activity was unreported or underreported, and as much as one-fifth of residential construction takes place unreported.

Roofmart itself was not the subject of a tax audit. The CRA made an UPR application targeting Roofmart customers who spent $20,000 or more between 2015 and 2017, and $10,000 or more in the first six months of 2018. The CRA sought customer names, business numbers, transaction details and banking information, among other data.

#163 DUFFER on 12.31.20 at 9:47 am

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 5:39 pm
#103 devore on 12.30.20 at 8:40 pm

—————–
Have either of you considered how stupid your conclusions are ? He still owes some of the 235K he borrowed on a house now worth 900K so by your reconning he still owes 200K since he only has 700K in equity.

Garth et al
Procreation is a GENETIC IMPERATIVE of all species.
The decision to have kids is your choice alone while sometimes you don’t have that choice. None-the-less, if your genes could be a benefit to the species, donate ova or sperm in order that your talents won’t be lost in the sludge at the bottom of the gene pool.
Hopefully we can improve and you can be part of the solution.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 9:51 am

Hmmm
A falling dollar.
Will rising interest rates be necessary?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N2JB057

#165 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.31.20 at 10:08 am

Re #137 by Ustabe
Actually I thank you for your post and I agree with a lot of it. The thing is, if you are going to be open, honest and transparent with people you also have to expect, and even welcome, those kind of viewpoints in return. I have already seriously considered delivery type jobs and even have a good vehicle to do it with. I’m also bondable if needed. If I wasn’t also losing my place to live at the same time decisions would be simpler. My motorhome is my home and I quite like it. I don’t own any normal household furnishings to move into an apartment in the city and after living out here in the quiet wilderness for 7 years I don’t think I could ever handle city living again. Like I said in previous posts I have applied to multiple service advisor jobs that have come open in the past year. The age thing is real. Believe me, being unemployed and living alone allows for plenty of time for various considerations. At the moment I am on the same page as #150 by Keen Reader. I am also very much aware that due to myself being debt free and pretty healthy that I am in a much better position right now than a lot of other people in Alberta and beyond. After all, Alberta’s economy has been getting progressively worse for five years now and I was on the front line of a busy retail job. I witnessed first hand how so many good people have been taken down hard economically. Lost their good paying job, their house, their marriage. Young people who invested their money and education in oil patch related jobs–like geologists for example—that are now forced to start over on a different path or move to Texas. The oil and gas industry is not dead everywhere—-just here in Canada. And it didn’t have to be that way. It has been Trudeau and the liberal’s goal to kill it and they are succeeding. Things would be different if Trudeau was prime minister for the whole country instead of just Quebec and the GTA. Sometimes I feel like I’m living in The Game Of Thrones with all the different kingdoms except without all the sex, haha. Once again, I thank you for your post.

#166 Proud CERBian on 12.31.20 at 10:19 am

2020 has been the greatest year ever for My People!

2021 will be even BIGGER!

O CERBia, we stand on guard for thee !

#167 Dharma Bum on 12.31.20 at 10:21 am

#135 Cal Guy

Could 2021 be worse than 2020?
——————————————————————–

It will be the same.

All the measures we take to minimize the effects of the virus are psychological appeasements. We feel better that we are at least trying to do something. Yet, we truly know absolutely nothing. We lockdown, we wear masks, we keep our distance, we sanitize, yet the rate of infections continues to rise. Mind you, so does the rate of recovery. The death toll stays roughly the same. No matter what we do. It’s a new reality. We are adapting to it, slowly. Facing the fact that the “precautions” are relatively useless, and that the only thing that will eradicate this bug (until the next one arrives) is scientific discovery. That is, a vaccine that actually works. The ones we are starting out with now are not conclusively known to work. We are part of the experiment to find out if they will work or not. What other choice do we have? None. In a couple of years, once everyone is vaccinated, we’ll see. In the mean time, expect 2021 to be the same as 2020. More mindless gibberish and hypocrisy spewing from the filthy mouths of vile politicians at all levels. Daily infection rates in the thousands. Daily recoveries in the thousands. Some death. And lineups at Walmart. Oh, the humanity.

#168 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.31.20 at 10:26 am

Re #159 by Penny Henny.
Wow, thank you for your post. I wasn’t aware of that and will check into it. Since I was originally laid off prior to Covid I believed I had fallen into a crack and couldn’t use Covid as a reason for any benefits. Definition of ‘assume’ right? As far as hiring a lawyer goes I have considered that. I did get the government mandated severance pay. It was vacation pay that I was owed that they squirmed their way out of. Hiring a lawyer and burning bridges over that seems to be questionably worth it to me. Thanks again.

#169 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 12.31.20 at 10:27 am

DELETED

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 10:27 am

@#163 Duffer
“He still owes some of the 235K he borrowed on a house now worth 900K so by your reconning he still owes 200K since he only has 700K in equity.”

+++

Well.
My assumed stupidity aside.

Lets look at the facts rather than “Reckoning'( as opposed to reconnoitering?).

House was purchased in 1998 for 225k. Check
He has stated it is now “worth” 900k. Check.
His equity is now “worth” 700k. check.
That would leave most people to assume ( stupidly or not) that he still owes 200k on the mortgage.

Lets do the math shall we?
900 value – 700 equity = 200 still owing …. Check.

That means on the original 225k mortgage from 22 YEARS ago (with accelerated bi weekly payments of approx $450 for 22 years = $12,000/year …..approx $264,000 paid out over 22 years….) the amount paid off the mortgage is still……..only……..$25k…

Sounds like the Line of Credit on the house was used as a bank machine……..with the mortgage payments ticking along forever.

Thats great if you’re guaranteed the house will always be worth more than the loan…… and you have a job forever to continue the mortgage payments…….

Eventually the house will be sold and the mortgage paid off.

#171 jal on 12.31.20 at 10:54 am

” My motorhome is my home and I quite like it.”
——
This year, RV sales went through the roof.
A lot of people are trying other options than living in a cardboard box under the overpass.

If you cannot increase your income, to make it to the end of the month, then you got to find ways to lower your expenses. Finding a way of getting rid of rent and mortgage, by living in an RV is a new way of WFH for a segment of the population.

A security guard, living in an RV, at a construction site is a common sight.

#172 Fred on 12.31.20 at 11:14 am

DELETED. Anti-mask.

#173 Prince Polo on 12.31.20 at 11:14 am

#15 Diamond Dog on 12.30.20 at 2:56 pm
……..If I was an oil exec, I would be paying some serious attention to this for all the right reasons: reduction of C02 footprint, lowering production costs (oil patch is a big consumer of power) but mainly, to save/make $$. If the oil patch is ever going to get serious about zero emissions, this is a way to it. How else do we transition from burning hydrocarbons to producing electricity on our way to zero emissions? :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn7IhGitNE4&t=55s
——————————————————-
Thanks for sharing – seems like it could be more useful for on-demand than solar!

==================================
#137 Ustabe on 12.30.20 at 11:03 pm
……….Last, document/parcel couriers (as in not UPS, Purolater, etc) are constantly looking for drivers. ICS is unionized, pays well and you can make good coin. I have a retired military buddy who is dragging it out til his pension becomes indexed. He drives a station wagon, the Ford Focus type that you can buy at auction for $2,000, works maybe 6 hours in a day but more often is back home after 4 or 5 and bills just under $40,000 per year. For driving around and delivering envelopes/parcels in the law/insurance/ notary sectors. Also diamond drill bits to dentists and titanium/gold to dental labs. He has what is considered a part time route, the full time guys make somewhere in the $70-80,000 range and no where near the physical effort of the big truck couriers.

So, make some lame point about liberal utopian dreams or get back on the horse? Self pity or self improvement?
———————————————————–
If there was ever a blog-dog that deserved a guest post, it’s you, Ustabe! I always look forward to your well-reasoned comments. Got any cool New Year’s Eve stories to share for us young’un Millennials? Thanks man!

#174 George S on 12.31.20 at 11:31 am

#81 nonplussed
Very good comment (at least to me), I agree 100%.

Pumped hydro is only useful at a few locations around the world and it is super inefficient. If you don’t believe this then find out what the generation capacity is of a very huge reservoir and its flow rate and try and figure out how to pump that flow rate of water back to the top of the reservoir.
If you buffer your solar panels or wind turbines with AGM batteries it costs at least 30 cents a kWh extra for the cost of the batteries. When they wear out, they really lose their storage capacity fast. Li batteries may be slightly cheaper per kWh but require a much higher up front cost although they lose their capacity slower at their life end.

We bought a small off grid solar system for a small 3 season cabin 12 years ago and have replaced the AGM batteries once. They cost about $300 per year which is still less than the monthly cost of just being hooked to the electrical grid. The cost of the solar system was about the same as hooking up to the grid. Although it is nice if there is a power outage, I would never do it again after seeing how badly you are limited in what you can do with electricity.

When you think about it, in quite a few jurisdictions when you turn on your electric stove someone somewhere is burning natural gas to power a turbine to generate electricity that is transported over a bunch of wires to your home so that you can use an electric stove instead of a natural gs one in the first place.

As for the credit unions, the smaller ones are still trying to be credit unions but it seems like most of the big ones are trying to become banks.

As a new year post it would be good to see a list of predictions from years past and then a follow up of how accurate they were. Especially the political ones where the world is going to end because of something or other.

#175 BillyBob on 12.31.20 at 11:36 am

#152 Sail Away on 12.31.20 at 8:14 am
#148 BillyBob on 12.31.20 at 4:43 am

Oh yeah.

And Jake’s an idiot.

—————

Too harsh, BB. Jake sounds like a productive member of society who’s established a safe and stable home for his family.

So he didn’t cash out, upend his family, and choose to become a renter? With all the logistics of teenagers and 22 years of established connection?

He had another option and took it. Good choice in my book.

==================================

I must have missed the part about the teenagers and connections, but both are quite possible renting. “Upend” is a bit dramatic – cashing in a windfall: oh the horror! :-)

As someone well familiar with job loss – and I don’t just mean the current one – I definitely default to stockpiling wealth, cashing in, staying highly liquid, ready to rock whenever the inevitable strikes and new opportunities present. Leaving unrealized gains and mewling along on CERB just to maintain status quo isn’t in the DNA.

But fair enough, it was pretty dismissive of me. Whatever floats yer boat. Sometimes brevity comes across as overly glib. I’m sure you can relate. ;-) Good to see you back btw.

——————-

Jag, you’ve been smashing it out of the park the last couple days with the posts. Always appreciate your comments. Even on an anonymous blog you typify my idea of what makes Albertans great. (Make Alberta Great Again…is that acronym taken…we could get hats??)

—————–

Gotta say CCG has proven to be the bigger man than Ustabe. I never got any “victim” vibe in the first place, not sure what triggered the sermon. Sometimes a change of scenery makes all the difference. My money’s on CCG.

————————–

5:30pm here in Praha on the last day of this wonderful 2020 and pilsner and champagne consumption is behind schedule.

Happy New Years all you GF reprobates!

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 11:55 am

@#163 Duffer
“Procreation is a GENETIC IMPERATIVE of all species.”

Yo Duffr
Some females kill and eat their mates after procreating…

Humans dont need to resort to anything that drastic…… we have lawyers

Lets ask this guy if he’s happy about his “pro creation” imperative….

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/nova-scotia-father-who-owes-250000-in-child-support-sentenced-to-more-than-four-years-in-prison

#177 Sail Away on 12.31.20 at 12:00 pm

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 9:27 am
@#152 Sail Away

“He had another option and took it.”

————

Yup.
22 years later he still owes 90% of his mortgage and has a garage full of toys, a great scrapbook of holidays paid for with a Line Of Credit, a sporadic job situation and the wife’s pension to fall back on in retirement…..

————

Maybe. But many more are pure problems:

Our downtowners morph into the walking dead every night. I already had security gates across all stairwell accesses, but this summer installed security fencing and cameras in the courtyard after getting tired of: harrassment to the ground floor businesses, needles everywhere, poop everywhere, trashed landscaping, upended garbage cans, destroyed irrigation, tagging, etc. I could continue…

If Jake chooses to pay his mortgage slowly, that’s his business… and helps the economy as a whole. You pay probably much more in monthly rent than he pays for his house, for that matter. Just another approach.

#178 Dr V on 12.31.20 at 12:06 pm

145 Ponzie

My observation as well

#179 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 12.31.20 at 12:08 pm

No, you’re not coming up north for the weekend.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#180 BlogDog123 on 12.31.20 at 12:13 pm

re:
#79 Long-Time Lurker on 12.30.20 at 7:26 pm
Zoolander 3. Script update.

This reminds me of the yogic flying from the Natural Law Party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Law_Party_of_Canada

#181 TurnerNation on 12.31.20 at 12:22 pm

Lol these WEF guys again. This is about Control nothing more. I submit this ‘reset’ was planned way in advance. While the little people like us were foaming with TDS and other things. The Long Game.
Nothing is left to chance in this world.
This weblog has debunked that crazy timeline.
Today the media is selling/controlling us by way of “Mutations”. Endless lock down and plunge into a controlled, global techno state? Wait and see.

What I do know is that many means of Capitalism have been taken away. Huge famers market/Flea market shut down in Pickering ON this week. Where the average person could buy, sell, and profit.
Hospitality industry and tips, gone. Ontario’s shut the ski hills. Collective punishment at this stage.

For years on here I said that “Minimum wage” of $15 was globalist-newspeak for Maximum Wage.
The sell job on UBI began in 2018. What other option is there…

Sell sell sell. Normalizing it. Yep CV did that.

https://time.com/collection/great-reset
“The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to think about the kind of future we want. TIME partnered with the World Economic Forum to ask leading thinkers to share ideas for how to transform the way we live and work.”

……

They are just toying with us at this point, the chaos, trauma to our Way of Life. Wait I thought those people overseas H8’d our way of life, we fought for that?

“B.C. introduces emergency order to stop liquor sales at 8 p.m. on New Year’s Eves (globalnews.ca)”

….

The Long Game- get ready for 10 years of this non stop chaos and trauma.

https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

#182 SunShowers on 12.31.20 at 12:38 pm

“He’s just one fool, and his political career is toast. It means nothing to society. – Garth”

I dunno about that Garth, he seems to have graduated from the Brian Pallister Academy for Out of Touch Conservative Oafs who Prance Away to Tropical Islands, Especially Since Covid Harrowed Unsuspecting Constituents’ Keeps.

BPAFOOTCOWPATTIESCHUCK is a bit of a mouthful for an acronym, but it’s catchy!

#183 NoName on 12.31.20 at 1:01 pm

As i already secured food and alcohol for tonight’s “party” of 4, i am patiently waiting in line to get in grosserie store. And from inside two employees came out wit tray of hot chocolate offering in line waters.

I applaud the who ever come up with this idea, much better than yelling at people to follow lines.

I wish happy new year, to our host his better half, dogs and crazy fox. Last year she did happy me new yaer buy i never got around to wish her a same.

I hope next year will be much less interesting and exciting, wear the mast, wash your hands and i lines and errows on a flor are just suggestions…

All the best everyone.

#184 Barb on 12.31.20 at 1:07 pm

Daughter just told me some journalists were talking about not attending restaurants tonight (BC has declared that liquor service must end at 8 p.m.). The journalists said they’d spend New Years at home, drinking whatever was in their liquor cabinet.

One journalist responded and said “my parents are about to discover the vodka bottle at the back of their cabinet is 90 per cent water”.

…wonder why daughter told me that “joke”…

Happy New Year to Garth Turner, his associates, and to blog dogs.

#185 DON on 12.31.20 at 1:29 pm

@CalCarGuy

As Penny Henny suggested chat with a lawyer about your severance. Cost benefit analysis needed here depending on the dealerships deep pockets.

On Van island rv sales and bonded delivery drivers are definitely good part time jobs. Spend your time on more remote parts of island in the winter…lots of nooks and crannies and no one bothering you about over night camping. Good fishing…and peace and quiet…lots of adventures. i know of a place near Qualicum Beach that rents spots on a private property for cheap. Lots of options like that. Come on out for the winters. Be glad to help out with any inside information/contacts I can.

@BillyBob

Yes the smug attitude in Victoria is simply amazing.

Some gen x were too young to experience the housing let down in the 80s.

@Jag

ouch…duncan folk are much more grounded than the village of wacky victoria to the south of them. But i get what you mean…lol

#186 WTF on 12.31.20 at 2:13 pm

#89 Nonplussed “Electrical engineers cannot design bridges. If such standards were in place for politicians and economists, the world would be a better place.”
—————————————————————-
Well put.

Financial incompetence needs oversight. AG should be enabled to vett proposed expenditures that will impact our national well being, Politicians spending with 4 year timelines does not bode well for a country and its citizens that will be around long after their failed promises and spending largesse becomes a huge problem.

#187 DUFFER on 12.31.20 at 2:24 pm

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 10:27 am

Real equity is value – costs of disposition.
If you are happy being “most folks” just hang in there

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.20 at 11:55 am

Genetic Impertive is real. Just ask a physician why blacks have sickle cell anemia. It can kill them but since the malaria parasite can’t live in the distorted red blood cells and kill them, they at least live long enough to reproduce. It’s a mean old world out there.

#188 Gary C on 12.31.20 at 8:19 pm

Calgary Car Guy: You do have a case with your former
employer, but you need a good lawyer, the employer in Alberta has the advantage, when it comes to not paying severance,however get in front of a Judge
The one thing a car dealership hates is negative publicity
a good lawyer will exploit that for 30-35% of the settlement.

#189 Dog Breath on 12.31.20 at 8:50 pm

Hey Garth, no mention of the “Great Reset” promised by little Justin and the globalists. After the reset you will own nothing. You will have no privacy. You will have a very limited right to free speech. You will no longer be eating meat but mostly artificial food. YOU WILL BE HAPPY!!