Oh no.

So what can go wrong?

Lately this pathetic but virus-free blog has blown some sunshine when it comes to 2021. The stock market prognosis is good. CBs will keep liquidity flowing. The slimy little pathogen will slowly retreat. Global GDP will expand. Commodity prices rise. Trump and his drama will be gone. Consumer spending and real estate will ride the crest of cheap money and big savings. Your boss may even email you ordering a return to the workplace. With pants.

So, yeah, what can go wrong?

Plenty, of course. And this is why – with nauseating, gnawing regularity – the advice here remains the same about having a balanced and globally diversified portfolio. Not too hot (stocks). Not too cold (bonds). Just right – in the weightings previously detailed.

Remember that when equities crashed 32% in March a B&D portfolio suffered a fraction  of that damage and recovered pronto. In 2008-10 when the credit crisis destroyed 55% of the Toronto stock market, taking seven years to repair, this portfolio was down 20% for less than 12 months and averaged a 5% return over those three years. It works. If your goal is predictable returns over several years to achieve a specific life goal – like getting a house, educating your kid, buying a tugboat or retiring – this is the boring, proven, crisis-repelling way to get there.

So while 2021 looks a helluva lot brighter than satanic 2020, there could be bumps. Seriously big ones. Balanced is the best defence.

So, the problems? Here are a few…

Vaccine letdown.
Big hype all over the place in recent weeks. Pfizer. Moderna, AstraZeneca. Grannies, nurses, foreign leaders, Pence and Fauci getting the shot. Planes of serum landing in Canada. Trudeau crowing about it in the Commons. Premiers lining up for accolades. Okay, we got it. But the vax is trash unless it gets into twenty million Canadian arms over the next six months.

So far, not so good. Only about 52,000 people have been vaccinated in all of Canada and at this pace some people estimate it will take about 70 years to do the population. Ontario officials on Tuesday were roasted for having closed shot-giving clinics over the Christmas holidays, even while new daily infections and deaths spun into record territory.

In short, that ‘vaccine lift’ the markets have been pricing in could end up being a huge drag if our political leaders and health establishment fail. Get yer butts in gear, buys. Yellow flags are out.

New bugs.
The icky little bug, like Adele, is mutating. A new version in the UK freaked out everyone last week, and now there’s another in South Africa. No reason to panic, although the media’s knickers are in a total knot. Worth watching.

Too late and too stupid.
The vax has come when it’s impossible to stop big Covid numbers from overwhelming the healthcare system this winter. In fact we may be seriously shocked at what lies ahead in the next six weeks. This will stall recovery, dampen inflation expectations and likely drop bond yields even further in the short term. Mortgages could be trimmed a little more, but the economy and Mr. Market will not like it.

Meanwhile, who ever imagined Canadians – compliant, obedient and polite folks – could be such tools? In the middle of a lockdown in Toronto on Monday thousands of people clogged city parks, shoulder-to-shoulder, maskless, to hurl their spawn down snowy slopes. Stores are ordered shut and businesses failing, but these numbnuts did their bit to prolong the crisis by horking on each other.

Beyond rescue.
The second wave is worse that the first, by far. Even with the vax hope, recovery has been pushed out further for some huge hunks of the economy that employ vast numbers. Air Canada and Westjet have slashed routes, with traffic down over 90%. Airports like YVR have seen revenues drop 95%. Tourism accounts for $40 billion a year and employs almost four million people – most now jobless. Porter may not fly again. Hotels may not reopen. It’s estimated four in ten restaurants will stay closed. Have markets adequately factored in how many years it will take for some kind of ‘normal’ to occur?

Is he dead yet?
Nope. Trump lives. He hit social media hard in the last few days, building his brand, feeding his base, refusing to concede the election or give an inch to his critics – even ensuring he garnered max attention by refusing to sign the big Covid bill until the last second. The guy got more than 70 million people to vote for him, and convinced 70% of Republicans he won a vote that he lost. He’s not a spent force, with the power – if he is unpatriotic and reckless enough to wield it – to upend America during its months of healing.

Trump iPad cover being sold to followers. Seriously.
.

There’s more. Politicians might hopelessly overreach during 2021 by continuing to spend public funds, amassing historic levels of debt and ensuring new pinnacles of taxation. The hoodies could push equity markets to extreme and wobbly heights – as they’ve done with BTC  – by diddling with their phone apps and day-trading us into a speculative bubble.

Then there’s the usual. Terrorists. Climate emergencies. Trade wars. Blades flying off Home Depot overhead fans. It’s a scary damn world.

Well, none of this may happen. It might all happen. The point is we’re blind to the future and powerless to alter it. Yet we must live and invest there. You know what that means. Do it.

168 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 12.29.20 at 2:07 pm

where’s the scotch

#2 Michael Bruce Chase on 12.29.20 at 2:10 pm

Great Trump Pic……LOVE IT. Downloaded it….I will use it to cover my Adele Pic…….Maybe the numbnuts are just sick and tired of the clowns running the shit show in Ontario.

#3 BlogDog123 on 12.29.20 at 2:11 pm

Volatility, ain’t it fun!

#4 Adele is mutating! on 12.29.20 at 2:18 pm

You really are funny……………

#5 Handsome Ned on 12.29.20 at 2:19 pm

“May you live in interesting times”

China

#6 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 2:24 pm

The makings of a black swan?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-politics/article-there-is-a-new-georgia-rising-demographic-shifts-give-democrats-hope/

Fartzy may still be right, wrong on Brexit though.

#7 Flop... on 12.29.20 at 2:26 pm

Justin Trudeau has everything under control.

The Metrosexual Messiah is always one step ahead of everyone else.

His mind works in mysterious ways.

How to reduce 400 billion deficit?

Simple stuff for such a magnificent mastermind.

Publicly defend Cake Lady, and then tell her he needs her to bake 400 billion worth of cakes for a cake sale on the lawns of Federal Parliament this summer.

He will eat his pink cupcake and then retreat into the cottage…

M46BC

#8 Linda on 12.29.20 at 2:27 pm

Won’t be shocked at higher Covid infections/death toll. Saddened, but really, what other outcome could there possibly be? A large segment of the population is convinced Covid is a nothing burger insofar as they are concerned – youth equals safety so why worry? What gets their knickers in a knot is any personal inconvenience. The mask is a symbol of that. Thus we had plenty of folks ignoring any of the public health mandates, including not spending the holidays in close contact with family/friends. To be fair, can see their point. Why bother trying to self isolate when children were attending school? We’ve elementary schools down the street from where we live. The kids may have been wearing masks while in class, but many were not social distancing or wearing masks during recess. Ditto when parents were picking them up at the end of the school day. Did the kids have masks? Yes. Were they wearing them on the way to the vehicle? No. So ordering business to be closed is kind of pointless when thousands of children interacted on a daily basis, sans mask. Schools are now closed, but that won’t last.

As for the vaccine, millions of jabs isn’t going to happen overnight. Frankly the vaccination clinics would have to operate 24/7 to even have a hope of getting the job done in less than a year. Especially when at least some of the vaccines require a second shot.

I still expect 2021 to be a good year, but I also expect to still be wearing a mask for most of it. Hopefully the politicians will focus on getting stuff done once elections have taken place. Until then we are going to have to struggle along as best we can.

#9 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 2:30 pm

Actually Fartzy, even if the Dems get both seats the Senate will still be split 50/50, so no sweep for the Blue Wave.

#10 Leftover on 12.29.20 at 2:35 pm

There’s also Inequality and its immediate cousin, Inflation.

Here’s the scenario – once the woke awaken and discover that people that feed, warm and take care of you don’t get paid as well as, say, teachers, mortgage brokers and civil servants, all hell could break loose.

Not to mention the physical risk these folks have taken to serve their fellow humans while many of them WFH and/or collected CERB.

The upshot could well be serious wage inflation among the unwashed which leads to, you guessed it, a rapid increase in interest rates. And the central bank can’t do nothin’.

#11 TurnerNation on 12.29.20 at 2:37 pm

On the theme of control over our Eating, Breeding and Movements/travel I have three new examples:
Always the Long Game.

1. Children, meeting people & socializing (or not) – hard to date & eventually breed eh?

@jeffreyatucker
This film short made by a Toronto teen is frighteningly brilliant and terrifying, a good summary of what “public health authorities” have done to children this year. Must watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSkbd6hRkXo&feature=youtu.be

2. Feeding: Last year when subway stations, streetcars were entirely wrapped in “Go Vegan” ads – who has that kind of budget?
We pretty much know the globalists are gunning to ban/limit meat consumption. For the climate you know!

Solution? Lab grown soylent green. It’s here:

“Eat Just is a food tech company that produces meat and egg substitutes, and recently became the first company approved to sell its lab-grown chicken product, GOOD Meat Cultured Chicken, in Singapore. Singapore is the first government to allow the sale of cultured meat.
The chicken will be served at restaurant 1880 in Singapore as a part of a trio of sample dishes that will sell for approximately $23.
“Eat Just is paving the way for the cellular agriculture industry, which has the potential to completely transform our food systems today to make them more sustainable and humane,”

3. Watch your travel rights. With flights, airlines vanishing, vax passports being rolled out so fast…Jetting, once again, for the rich? A toast to our elites.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition…. Toronto upstart Momentum Jets says interest in private flights is strong as wealthy Canadians look for more secure and convenient ways to fly. Momentum Jets is also striving to broaden access to the luxury of private flight from the ultrarich. Rather than chartering an entire flight, which is typically billed by the hour and can cost anywhere from $10,000 to $250,000, Momentum will allow customers to purchase individual seats on a private aircraft for select routes. “We were thinking about how to make this more accessible to people,” said Janelle Brind at Momentum Jets. A seat on a round trip Toronto-Montreal flight could run between $600 and $800, while longer haul flights to islands such as Barbados and Turks and Caicos can cost up to $5,000, about double the price of a business-class seat…
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#12 Duffy on 12.29.20 at 2:38 pm

We need Leslyn Lewis and Tulsi Gabbard leading North America and a fully elected democratic government in China, with covid on death row in prison.
Just a few things on my wish list for 2021.
Oh and maybe having Justin work on the oil rigs to support his family.

#13 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.29.20 at 2:49 pm

The only disease to have ever been eradicated 100% completely by vaccination is smallpox.

Toke on that for a bit.

#14 Joe Bide by my rules #devilsadvocate on 12.29.20 at 2:52 pm

Garth, I’ve loved and trusted your advice to no end…. in fact it has completely revolutionized everything I do from money to career (quit high Pay job for low Pay and lifestyle) to the way I sculpt my abs, and date (of course they go hand in hand ;) hell I even bought a dog.

But (never start a sentence with but) you are a fellow anarchist in so many ways challenging the status quo and encouraging people to live outside of socioeconomic boxes (aka real estate) You are kinda like my cowboy boot wielding man-crush….

However, given the amount of controversy behind everything that has happened and the reactionary and ongoing misuse of funding, power, and education (ie. cover up your issues with a VAX – no one in government is telling me to eat healthier, go to gym, build immunity etc etc) don’t you think there is way more going on here!?? I’d like some leadership from the top down…

All I see is leadership from the bottom up. All I’m saying is, Trudeau must have been on one of my boats out here in tofino; cause things are smelling a wayyyyyy to fishy.

#devilsadvocate

#15 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 2:52 pm

Well. That was cheery.

“Canadians…could be such tools…spawn…horking…numbnuts…” [ignoring the “Dead” parts]

——————–

My Liege I say to you, yet AGAIN:

You need to be more forthright with your assertions.

Well said Garth. Indeed. I agree with your prediction and admonishments.

As they say:

When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

You have been at your very best in 2020.

#16 Me on 12.29.20 at 2:56 pm

I have learned the hard way no matter what, stay invested as long as you are in quality businesses just wait it out.

#17 Ken M. on 12.29.20 at 2:56 pm

I am sure that they are ramping up the shots now that Christmas is done, more after the new years. And they are getting the Elderly, front line medical, native reserves first – all good.

#18 C V on 12.29.20 at 3:01 pm

As a young person this post got me excited. Not for 2021, but for the years after that. The media blithers on about politics, vaccines, conspiracy theories, trump, wars with China etc… Meanwhile we are as a culture experiencing some really interesting shifts. AI technology, autonomous vehicles, digital currency- centralized and decentralized, increased methods of communication and social acceptance of that communication… The rapid speed of change is fast and exciting

#19 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 12.29.20 at 3:02 pm

DELETED

#20 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 3:03 pm

#159 Howard on 12.29.20 at 1:14 pm

It has been found that some people who engaged in risky behaviour in the 80s, but never contracted HIV (despite most of their peer group catching it who were engaged in the very same behaviour), have certain genes that block access of the virus to cells.
//////////////

Risky activity in your 80’s now includes going to the grocery store. :0

#21 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:14 pm

I urge you Garth and his fellow adoring masses to not take the UK variant LIGHTLY.

If you have any doubt, spot in this new cases chart for the UK when the “variant” gained steam (they were on a healthy downward trajectory, “were”):

https://i.imgur.com/xAGIFzv.png

As of 1 hour ago (21hr CET) that peak number in the chart (Dec. 28) has now become:

53,135

per BBC using words “extreme concern” in their article.

RECALL Canada (and USA) how you all sat SMUG in your living rooms and viewing from across the pond in March the tragedy unfolding in Bergamo, Italia.

Hopefully, you will have learned from that and to not repeat the same FALSE sense of security now as you did then.

——————————

PS:

In the World Covid-19 Mutant Sweepstakes, besides the S. African mutant which is turning out to be more contagious and deadly yet than the UK mutant (though supposedly the same mutation) we have a NEW CONTESTANT as of today from none other than ITALIA:

https://www.adnkronos.com/fatti/cronaca/2020/12/28/covid-scoperta-variante-italiana-circola-agosto_GqSU097PTY1xx9k4jm9TRN.html

Poor Italia. Always in Covid’s crosshairs. It must favour our climate, food, who knows?

The damn thing seems to like it here. We do not like it (obv) having Zona Rossa’d ourselves into isolation, no cheek kissing, no hugging…denying ourselves the warmth and embrace of Il Paese, gone (so far stomping it down, so far):

https://i.imgur.com/HEsMcH5.png

#22 n1tro on 12.29.20 at 3:18 pm

If I were to sell something to the masses, I’d target the +74M Trump voters. They seem passionate for better or worst but at least I know they are real.

#23 n1tro on 12.29.20 at 3:22 pm

#9 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 2:30 pm
Actually Fartzy, even if the Dems get both seats the Senate will still be split 50/50, so no sweep for the Blue Wave.
————-
Split would then be decided by the VP.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 3:29 pm

@#9 Penny Henny
“Actually Fartzy, even if the Dems get both seats the Senate will still be split 50/50, so no sweep for the Blue Wave.”
+++++

A tie vote goes to the Vice President of the United States.
Kamala Harris would break the tie with her vote.

“”The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided” (U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3). Since 1789, 268 tie-breaking votes have been cast.”

You only need a majority of one vote to pass a Law….

#25 zoey on 12.29.20 at 3:35 pm

Whatever happens in 2021 we can be sure:

JT will continue to spend like a drunken sailor.

The BoC with no bullets in their gun since 2010 will continue ZIRP as they know nothing else.

Taxes will rise, The RE bubble will continue getting bigger.

What do you expect when recessions are not allowed to happen anymore. No skinned knees kiddies, no losers only winners. Just like in little league soccer because losing can scar sensitive young people. We’re seriously in a deep pile of you know what.

#26 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:38 pm

One last thing from I have to admit some very good coverage by the Cdn MSM as of late.

Last night they took note on the “vaccine not fast enough” meme that Gov Canada could not provide vaccine amounts to come.

Pretty sure I know why (recall Trudeau saying by Sept. all that want to be vaccinated, will be vaccinated).

The numbers DISAGREE as of early Dec data.

Early Dec. estimates for 2021 WORLD vaccine production (all name brands taken into account, approved and not approved as of yet) is:

5.3 Billion doses or
2.65 Billion people that can be vaccinated in 2021

Months ago vaccine makers stated production allocated on a pro rata population basis (you may have noticed allocated Provincial quantities, same basis).

15 yrs or older get vax’d, for now. World population over 15 is 26% leaving (per Statista):

5.772 Billion that will get vax’d

Canada population 15 and above, about (per StatCan July 1, 2020 est.):

32 Million

or

0.5544% of the World population.

Factor 2021’s 5.3 Billion dose World vaccine production by population allotment and you get:

29.4 Million doses or

14.7 million Cdns will get vaccinated in 2021.

————————-

Those are the 2021 Cdn VAX POPULI numbers. Better the truth than a false sense of security.

PS:

The 6.4 earthquake today in Petrinja, CRoatia was felt by yours truly in Pordenone, IT. At first, I thought it was the couch. I will say this about Croatia:

Cool as a Cucumber, Nerves of Steel…looks at this broadcast interview and pay attention as they switched to the TV studio broadcaster (it shook like that here in Pordenone, it did):

https://twitter.com/JournoSiddhant/status/1343895064745975809

NONE OF YOU will be more pleased to put 2020 behind himself than ME.

#27 CJ on 12.29.20 at 3:40 pm

Imagine an old(er) man with no children mocking parents for taking their little ones tobogganing. Guess what Garth? There is little to no chance of spreading the virus outside.
Let the kids free. The lockdown is ridiculous.

That was just stupid and unnecessarily personal. Every parent in close proximity to every other parent should be masked in the midst of a lockdown. You have no point. – Garth

#28 Better than Adele! on 12.29.20 at 3:43 pm

Dancing robots…..cause everything else is just insane….

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1344016526442115080?s=19

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:44 pm

PS, PS:

Yesterday I assumed G20 would get vax’d end of 2021.

Decided to do the Math with the latest production data.

Was I surprised per my prior post.

If indeed herd immunity is at 70% of the population, assume 15 yrs or over need the vax in Canada then that number is:

22.4 million.

Canada VAX POPULI will fall well short of that number in 2021.

Again, based on the latest vax production numbers for 2021. Pray they can increase that by a LOT.

If you find different estimates than 5.3 Billion doses production in 2021 let me know…certainly I am depressed after running the Math as it stands now and would welcome a number that is >>> than 5.3 Billion doses.

#30 Cliff on 12.29.20 at 3:48 pm

It’s not the number of people who get infected that we should be freaking out about. We have millions getting infected with the flu every year and we don’t shut everything down. If not total cases, then it’s the demand on hospital beds, particularly the ICU and critical care beds to watch and support. We have 350 being used in BC right now, a system with 20 major hospitals designated as “covid” and a personnel totalling 250000 people (for all Healthcare activities including cleaners etc.). The other area is long term care because of the extreme lethality of this non lethal virus amongst extreme aged patients. Get to these areas first and open up the economy. Let the majority get the sniffles and get back to work. Vaccinate like crazy in the extreme areas like care homes and hospitals and get the people that take care of us into immunity so they keep doing their jobs. You don’t have to get to everyone to break the back of this thing. Stop paying so much attention to the 99% who breeze through it and hit the 1% with everything you’ve got. We should start seeing the effect by March, I think.

#31 KNOW IT ALL on 12.29.20 at 3:49 pm

Well that just gave me the vote of confidence I was looking for…..NOT!!!

I guess we now know which Garth showed up to the park today.

Taken my bat and ball and going home.

Bump all this noise.

#32 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 3:54 pm

So 2021 much like 2020 and possibly even worse – great.

#33 Jimmy Zhao on 12.29.20 at 3:57 pm

You can’t call it the ‘China Flu’ because it’s racist, but it’s alright to call the more contagious one a ‘UK variant’ ?

Hmmmmmmmmm.

UK is not a race. – Garth

#34 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 3:59 pm

According to FluWatch, the seasonal flu is down at least 95% this season. On the one hand, a lot of people are attributing that to the wearing of masks, distancing, lockdowns, etc. On the other hand, those same people are attributing the rise of Covid to people not wearing masks, not distancing or “following the rules” and lockdowns coming too late.

So, which is it? People are following the rules or they’re not?

Last year nobody wore a mask or distanced. So now there’s less flu. This is a mystery? – Garth

#35 Barb on 12.29.20 at 4:06 pm

“It works.”
And Garth never goes running for the hills at the slightest blip.

Husband just finished reading his Christmas gift “Too Much and Never Enough” by Trump’s PhD niece, Mary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_Much_and_Never_Enough
I’ve never seen H shake his head in disbelief so often!

And the only word H said about the dysfunctional Trump family reminds me of this “instruction to AUTOCORRECT: it’s never DUCK”.

How could such a horrible human being ever become the leader of such a magnificent nation?!?!

#36 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 4:28 pm

Last year nobody wore a mask or distanced. So now there’s less flu. This is a mystery? – Garth

That wasn’t my point. My point was that there are people out there saying nobody is following the rules which is why we are back in lockdown, however, that cannot be true since there is no flu. In other words, people are following the rules so it must be this new virus that can’t be stopped merely by wearing masks, distancing and lockdowns. Better for people to admit that than keeping up the charade that these things work and we should keep doing them.

Wrong again. The masks and distancing have worked to almost eliminate flu. Therefore they have also cut Covid transmission. Most people are following the rules. Some idiots are not.- Garth

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 4:29 pm

@#35 Barb.
I read both Mary Trumps book about her Uncle Donald and the entire dysfunctional, backstabbing family from Trumps father, mother and the mess of sibling’s, children, etc..
It gives you a great insight into how and why Trump is such a dorkus malorkus.

Then I read John Bolton’s book……. about Trump as a dysfunctional, backstabbing President.

The best line,.
“I was warned that dealing with him was like dealing with an eleven year old….they were wrong by a decade….”

#38 Apocalypse2020 on 12.29.20 at 4:31 pm

“He’s not a spent force, with the power – if he is unpatriotic and reckless enough to wield it – to upend America during its months of healing.”

You are quite correct, Garth.

“Terrorists. Climate emergencies. Trade wars…. It’s a scary damn world.

Well, none of this may happen. It might all happen.”

Ditto.

Global chaos like never before is right ahead.

PREPARE

#39 Lead Paint on 12.29.20 at 4:32 pm

#30 Cliff on 12.29.20 at 3:48 pm

Exactly. It’s the good old 80/20 rule. Once 20% of the people in places responsible for 80% of transmission are vaccinated, the number of active infections will drop drastically and most of the economy can open up, albeit with masks and social distancing and WFH for those that can.

Hopefully this puts us at early 2021.

#40 Simon on 12.29.20 at 4:41 pm

COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker

More than 67187 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have been administered across Canada.

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

#41 Brian Ripley on 12.29.20 at 4:42 pm

My second last post of the year is up with 6 charts:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/interest-rates-matter

1) Real Esate Sales a week before Xmas for last 10 years.
Currently Up about 40% over prior years on Interest Rate Lows.

2) BoC Interest Rate & Economic Growth forecast.
No rate increase until 2023. Lower growth though 2025+

3) Big Banks 5 year fixed projections.
Well under 3% through 2022.

4) World Data Lab projection of continental economic “recovery” (ie Spending per Capita).
North America: 2023-2024

5) Continental Y/Y change in Consumer Spending.
North America to continue the downtrend that started before Covid 19.

6) Sector Distribution of Canadian employees since 2010.
The trend continues of nearly 80% of us employed in service sectors.

We consume, we don’t produce, we borrow.

“The most troubling (employment) trend is that, between February and November, 58,000 more men joined the labour force despite the pandemic’s economic impact, while 31,000 women left it. The ranks of those who are no longer in the labour force grew twice as fast for women as men (147,000 more women were added to the “not in the labour force category” from February to November, compared to 74,000 more men). This includes retirees, and women who cannot get back into the job market or have thrown in the towel because of lack of childcare. Simply put: there will be no recovery without a she-covery, and no she-covery without childcare.

This is not just a woman’s problem; it’s a macroeconomic problem. Household spending accounted for 57 percent of GDP before the pandemic hit; the biggest block of spenders are households with young children; and women make up 40 percent of the incomes of such households. The longer women don’t recover paid work, the slower will be recovery, for all. Armine Yalnizyan is an economist, Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers, and the person who coined the term “she-cession”, in March.” https://www.macleans.ca/economy/charts-to-watch-in-2021-the-most-important-canadian-economic-charts-for-the-year-ahead/

No job, no cash flow, no spending no consumption GDP.

Lockdown time is a good time for further education into better employment prospects, ie: non routine skills.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 4:42 pm

@#154 Billybob

Interesting article

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

I just finished reading the year end Dec19 “special edition” of the Economist

Page #115 The Prophet of Permafrost has an excellent article about a Russian researcher who is leading the way in slowing down permafrost melt with…….animals.

https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2020/12/19/one-russian-scientist-hopes-to-slow-the-thawing-of-the-arctic

His theory is that humans hunted all the large grazing animals in the north to extinction 20,000 years ago.
So
He has imported muskox, bison, reindeer, sheep, northern horses, northern cattle, yaks, etc to graze on the small trees, shrubs, trample the moss, fertilize, etc to allow grasslands to grow back.

#43 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 4:49 pm

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 3:29 pm
@#9 Penny Henny
“Actually Fartzy, even if the Dems get both seats the Senate will still be split 50/50, so no sweep for the Blue Wave.”
+++++

A tie vote goes to the Vice President of the United States.
Kamala Harris would break the tie with her vote.

“”The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided” (U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3). Since 1789, 268 tie-breaking votes have been cast.”

You only need a majority of one vote to pass a Law….
//////////////

Yes you are absolutely correct as far as I understand it, but that still wasn’t the bet.

#44 Sail Away on 12.29.20 at 4:49 pm

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:44 pm
PS, PS:

Yesterday I assumed G20 would get vax’d end of 2021.

————

DV, your calculations do not account for the leavening effect of natural transmission and antibodies.

Being a coronavirus, we can all expect to catch it, and with the current expansion rate, we can expect exponential transmission. So… it’s probably safe-ish to assume that half of the population will have acquired antibodies the old-fashioned way in a year, and virtually everybody in 2 years.

Logic suggests the vast majority of antibodies will end up being naturally produced.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 4:49 pm

@# 38 A pox on you 2020

Even though I know that APoxOnYou 2020 will be gone in a few more days…….
I’m a little sad……
And then I realize APoxOnYou2021 is just around the corner!
How exciting.

#46 SoggyShorts on 12.29.20 at 4:52 pm

#142 Sail Away on 12.29.20 at 8:33 am
#127 SoggyShorts on 12.29.20 at 1:09 am
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 8:43 pm
@#105 Bill
45K, not 30k.
They gotta pay back 75%
——————
Not exactly. A total of $20k is forgiveable. Directly from the government website:
*************************
Huh. I’m 5K richer than I thought. Thank you SA, or Ummm.. “Thanks Justin” I guess?

#47 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 4:53 pm

DELETED

#48 LiveYourLife on 12.29.20 at 4:54 pm

Can we just move on already? All of human existence was beset by war, famine, plague and disaster. Safety was never guaranteed. You risk painful violent death every time you drive on the highway.

Now we have a worldwide police-nanny state to protect us from a relatively mild respiratory virus.

I’d much rather take my chances with the virus than with big government-corporate authoritarianism.

Let’s move on with our lives. Their is no guarantee of safety in life and I don’t want to sacrifice my freedom for it. There is no evidence that the things that have been done are effective. If lockdowns or masks are effective why are things worse than ever in terms of case numbers?

Because it’s not a relatively mild respiratory virus. Duh. – Garth

#49 3s on 12.29.20 at 4:58 pm

There’s a sunrise
On the dark side of the moon
We’ll lead you there with every breath
So long as you consume

#50 Ustabe on 12.29.20 at 4:59 pm

#22 n1tro on 12.29.20 at 3:18 pm

If I were to sell something to the masses, I’d target the +74M Trump voters. They seem passionate for better or worst but at least I know they are real.

How about we put together an Apprentice similar show. Trump can be the guy, his kids can be the contestants. The prize will be a pardon. One only.

It could be a child beauty pageant, the Trump kids could go out and find themselves a good looking and talented kid, prep them and Donald himself chooses the winner.

One by one the Trump kids and their kid eliminate themselves until the winner Trump kid gets the pardon, the winner kid gets a job in the McDonald’s franchise in Trumps Presidential Library and Trump gets to tweet to his hearts content.

Lots of demographic there…NBC will jump all over this! Maybe Garth will blow the dust off his old TV equipment for an executive producer credit?

We will need someone looking after hydration…who here wants to carry water for Trump?

#51 TurnerNation on 12.29.20 at 5:15 pm

Based on the timelines hinted in this article I’d say expect economic lockdowns till at least Sept 2021 and likely into 2022.
Pssst Do not call it a reset. Or ‘The Great’ one.
Just wiped-out small business, middle classes; add a UBI I bet. Not only Kanada but every “First world” country.
Held hostage with a needle. They will build back better alright…just watch.

CV did all this or un/planned? For your health Comrade!
Those who can see the evil that has taken over this world…will do much better.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-vaccine-timeline-1.5856702

…………

Paging Alphonse…he nailed it:

“#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.
28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.”

#52 greyhound on 12.29.20 at 5:16 pm

Boris Yeltsin & Michael Dukakis both stood on tanks. Didn’t work out so well for either one…

#53 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 5:17 pm

Wrong again. The masks and distancing have worked to almost eliminate flu. Therefore they have also cut Covid transmission. Most people are following the rules. Some idiots are not.- Garth

Okay, a couple of things then. First, will we need to wear masks, distance and lockdown every flu season forever after?

Second, Covid transmission is up in southern Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba and BC. Clearly these measures have not worked otherwise transmission would be down.

Finally, “some idiots are not.” Is it fair to say then that those idiots, which are supposedly in the minority, are responsible in the increase of transmission of Covid in the above mentioned provinces?

Arguing with a troll is like wrestling with a pig. The pig loves it. You both get filthy. Enjoy your mud. – Garth

#54 CJ on 12.29.20 at 5:19 pm

#27
Garth, you’re right. That was a stupid comment I made. My apologies.

#55 Camille on 12.29.20 at 5:21 pm

Interesting post, staying invested has worked many times and will continue I hope. Can’t lower rates any more, need Gdp growth to outrun interest rates, so they can’t go up? Suppress rates and under-report inflation. Sell treasuries to the Fed and banks (no one else can afford to or wants suppressed rate treasuries) and print and hand out to sustain spending & markets (from where spending now comes). Treasuries underpinning markets. Currency whacked?
Too obscure? And you mentioned bitcoin today?
-bad players: retail investors, ETFs, millennials, risk parity funds (so old now), mom and pop
-good players: pros, CBs, democrats (don’t disagree)
WOW!!! Can we have super duper growth to save us?
Garth you are an honest actor, democratic do-gooder, with sound advice wanting people to prosper and succeed. That’s probably never easy.

#56 macroman on 12.29.20 at 5:22 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#57 ScienceNotManipulation on 12.29.20 at 5:29 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#58 Yukon Elvis on 12.29.20 at 5:31 pm

#15 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 2:52 pm

#21 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:14 pm

#26 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:38 pm

#29 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:44 pm
…………………………………

That’s four already today. In 52 minutes. Lay off the crack.

#59 Ross on 12.29.20 at 5:34 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#60 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.29.20 at 5:35 pm

What happened to the HOLIDAY SPIRIT y’all?

Jeeeez …. Cheer up!!

#61 neo on 12.29.20 at 5:40 pm

Re- Tobogganing.

You can’t just keep your kids locked in the house staring at a screen all day Garth. They need to get outside and burn off some steam and get some fresh air. I get what you are saying theoretically but the fact remains getting the virus outdoors is far more unlikely than indoors.

Did you witness the scene? Completely irresponsible. It’s a lockdown. The kids will get over it. – Garth

#62 Squire on 12.29.20 at 5:47 pm

9 Penny Henny on 12.29.20 at 2:30 pm
Actually Fartzy, even if the Dems get both seats the Senate will still be split 50/50, so no sweep for the Blue Wave.

————
Actually, incorrect. If Dems get both seats the Vice President incoming is the tie breaker. so it would be 49/51 for Dems.
Not that I’m rooting for Dems but that’s the reality.

#63 JohnAB on 12.29.20 at 6:06 pm

Garth finally is saying that the RE will do fine? Noooo…. can’t believe my eyes!

#64 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:17 pm

“The icky little bug, like Adele, is mutating.”

I’ve read reports that the mutations are not outside the expected efficacy of the vaccine. In other words the new bugs are not different enough from the old bug to make the vaccine ineffective. I am no microbiologist but as I understand it these mRNA vaccines work differently than traditional vaccines. It’s complicated so if you are interested there is this:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/mrna.html

Or just google “mRNA”.

—————————————

“In the middle of a lockdown in Toronto on Monday thousands of people clogged city parks, shoulder-to-shoulder, maskless, to hurl their spawn down snowy slopes.”

Yep I observed the same thing here in Calgary when I went out to get some groceries. I happened to drive past a few popular toboggan hills and they were all wall to wall people. Of course it didn’t help that we’d recently had the biggest snow dump in 2 years and the weather was warm.

Costco was lined up in both directions (returns and purchases, couldn’t the returns wait?). So I just darted through the line to the smoke shop for some cigars (hey, it’s something to do during lockdown) and chatted up the smoke lady. She said the main problem was that they were only allowed 700 customers in the store but the fools kept coming in twos. They had a sign saying only one shopper per membership but it was causing so many arguments that they just reverted to lining people up. So that effectively dropped the amount of carts that could be being filled from 700 to 350 at any given time. (Unless you bring 2 carts, my wife and I have done that from time to time, especially if we need pops or dog food. Always gets a comment from the cashier.) Anyway I grabbed my cigars and went to co-op for the groceries. No line there.

People just don’t seem to get it. It proves the old adage that half the population is below average IQ. Unfortunately it seems that this half of the population is exactly the same half that seems to be oblivious to the fact that their brain is letting them down.

#65 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:21 pm

#4 Adele is mutating! on 12.29.20 at 2:18 pm
You really are funny……………

Adele has lost a lot of weight. May have inspired the joke. She’s actually kind of pretty now.

Especially when quiet. – Garth

#66 vanisle on 12.29.20 at 6:22 pm

Just wanted to say I collected CERB. I’m not proud of it but it was necessary. I also deferred my mortgage for 6 months back in April. I renewed my mortgage 2 weeks ago at 1.65% 5 year fixed. Even though I was on the dole since April and deferred my mortgage obligations for 6 months…they didn’t care! They even offered me a $20K LOC. I have been in the house since 1998 and have way more skin in the game then the C/U (lender). I declined the LOC and have been working full time since October. Shit happens…I didn’t want any of this.

#67 Odin on 12.29.20 at 6:24 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#68 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:24 pm

#13 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.29.20 at 2:49 pm
The only disease to have ever been eradicated 100% completely by vaccination is smallpox.

Toke on that for a bit.

——————————-

The perfect is the enemy of the good.

#69 willworkforpickles on 12.29.20 at 6:28 pm

The mask and the vax serve to provide about the same level of protection in limiting the viral load… and if you do contract the virus your symptoms will be light (most humans).

#70 macroman on 12.29.20 at 6:28 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#71 Suburban Bob on 12.29.20 at 6:30 pm

‘In the middle of a lockdown in Toronto on Monday thousands of people clogged city parks, shoulder-to-shoulder, maskless, to hurl their spawn down snowy slopes. Stores are ordered shut and businesses failing, but these numbnuts did their bit to prolong the crisis by horking on each other.’

_____________________

On the weekend, two separate days, I drove past a school park in Leaside. Each day the hills were totally packed with people sledding.

Stopped in traffic the second time, I tried a count. I’d estimate there were over 250 parents and children tobagganing in very close quarters down the schoolyard hills. Not many masks and little distancing.
No enforcement in sight.

Just astonishing.

But what do you expect, from Stephen Harper’s old childhood neighbourhood, but a lot of stupidity……

#72 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:33 pm

#33 Jimmy Zhao on 12.29.20 at 3:57 pm
You can’t call it the ‘China Flu’ because it’s racist, but it’s alright to call the more contagious one a ‘UK variant’ ?

Hmmmmmmmmm.

UK is not a race. – Garth

———————————–

Technically China is not a race either. At least the Uyghurs and Mongols wouldn’t think so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_China

However the way Trump popularized the phrase does seem racist, even though I think his target was the CCP and their lack of disclosure not Chinese citizens. But who knows what goes on in the mind of Trump.

#73 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 6:45 pm

“Did you witness the scene? Completely irresponsible. It’s a lockdown. The kids will get over it. – Garth”

Easy for you to say.

#74 Amateur Investor on 12.29.20 at 6:46 pm

How would a balanced portfolio behave in a stagflationary environment?

#75 zoey on 12.29.20 at 6:48 pm

I do think the virus is mild. Its mild to the high 90% of the population. However , its not mild to the rest. The sick, the old etc – the suceptable. So in order to spare the suceptable the rest of us need to suck it up, wear a mask and go get the vax. Seems like common sense to me.

The economy will not function until the virus is contained. The health care system will not provide care for all until infections drop. So until then, everyone suffers. Those who stand in the way are selfish and unworthy. – Garth

#76 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:50 pm

#65 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:21 pm
#4 Adele is mutating! on 12.29.20 at 2:18 pm
You really are funny……………

Adele has lost a lot of weight. May have inspired the joke. She’s actually kind of pretty now.

Especially when quiet. – Garth

—————————–

I come here for the thought provoking topics and solid advice but have to admit that the humor really helps make it much more tolerable than an econ 101 class. Keep up the good work my friend!

#77 NoName on 12.29.20 at 7:00 pm

#26 Dolce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:38 pm

They were two earthquake in cro, and one in you neck of the woods.

italian earthquake was 9:30-something (4.6) am, and two in cro were couple of hours earlier

@ 6:30 (6.4) and 7:30am (4.4)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=38.90813,4.4165&extent=48.60386,27.3999&format=dyfi&sort=largest&listOnlyShown=true

worlds map of tectonic activity
https://imgur.com/a/QOgQdbQ

#78 S.Bby on 12.29.20 at 7:04 pm

I have a GIF of that Trump cover… it’s quite impressive with the “live” blasting fireworks and guns…

#79 Garth's Son Drake on 12.29.20 at 7:06 pm

Meanwhile, who ever imagined Canadians – compliant, obedient and polite folks – could be such tools?

Canadians are finally getting exposed. The whole world was tricked that people here were something special.

The reality is a bunch of entitled crybabies who apparently can’t take orders based on science and only believe what is posted in their unhinged Facebook circles

#80 S.Bby on 12.29.20 at 7:13 pm

I predicted back in July that this worse second wave would occur over this winter. How did I know? Based on the Spanish flu trends back in 1918 to 1920. Also in looking at the overall numbers and how they dropped off during the summer and so we collectively let down our guard thus allowing an accelerated spread in the fall. It was a no-brainer to see how this would shape up over the winter months.

#81 Juan on 12.29.20 at 7:18 pm

Trump and his drama will be gone?

You mean the drama created by the lies from Democrats and their colluding media? Such as:

* Russia-Trump conspiracy theory for 3 years
* Lies about Trump demanding quid pro from Ukraine
* Lies that Trump would not disavow white supremacists
* Lies that Trump called white supremacists “fine people”
* Lies to FISA court to get warrants to spy on Trump
* Lies that Proud Boys are white supremacists
* Lies that Trump is anti-semitic
* Lies about racism that fuelled ANTIFA, BLM and the 5 months of riots, looting, destruction of thousands of businesses and livelihoods, beatings of dozens of store owners and murders of 11 cops, wounding 9

Is this the drama that you are referring to?

Trump convinced 70% of Republicans that he won but he didn’t? You are keeping yourself in the dark, or in the silo of the lying media. There is a mountain of evidence of voter fraud. The media continues to lie that there isn’t. This is similar to the endless lies they’ve been pushing since 2016. Just like their lie that Hunter Biden’s hard drive, which confirms that Joe Biden is corrupt, is “unverified” or part of “Russia disinformation”.

If you’re going to write a blog, at least be honest, or point out the dishonesty.

** Sigh ** – Garth

#82 the Jaguar on 12.29.20 at 7:20 pm

“Meanwhile, who ever imagined Canadians – compliant, obedient and polite folks – could be such tools? ” – GT

Canadians haven’t been compliant, obedient or polite for some time. That’s just one of many ‘big whoppers’ we’re fond of telling ourselves. There’s a little more civility in some parts of the country where cities are not burned and cars overturned because somebody lost a hockey game. ( talkin’ bout YOU Vantown and Montreal ! ). Even within the more obediently populated areas one can observe the tribalism that has come to define everything from where people live, who they vote for, and how they use their voting block to advance their own tribal interests versus the interests that serve the collective good of their fellow citizens or greater community.
Whether it’s lobsters in Nova Scotia, blocking railroads and pipelines, or just being a jerk by refusing to mask up to save other lives, there’s enough willful blindness and stupidity to go around.

The current Pandemic has been a window on this with no ability to switch the channel or ignore the unpleasant realities. ‘Inconvenient Truths” everywhere one looks, and I suspect there is a good deal that will only come out after the crisis is over for fear the cattle might stampede.

Speaking of Stampede, I’ll nominate Dr. Deena Hinshaw, our Chief Medical Officer for Parade Marshall in 2021 for the annual ruckus known as the Calgary Exhibition and Stampede. Grace under pressure. We’re humbled by her steady hand on the wheel of this great ship known as Alberta. Pretty good navigating, Skipper.
How each province manages the vaccine rollout will speak volumes. I feel confident I will get the jab before the end of May. We have a pretty good procurement guy here in Alberta, and our organizational skills and commitment level was on full display during the Calgary Flood of 2013. Mercy.

#83 The West on 12.29.20 at 7:21 pm

We are NOT powerless to alter the future!

Please do not feed people this. You were an elected official to the House of Common(ers)! It’s not real power but, its a voice! You were there, most are here because you were there. I know you don’t always appreciate this haunt on your comments Garth but, at some point the reality of the ship we are sailing into the future with needs to become clear.

Tectonic plates are shifting around the world. The sun has all but set on the English empire and aristocracy of Europe has pulled the thirteen colonies down with them….now what? Is the world ready for Han rule? Are we? If Jack Ma cannot escape the CCP what will you do, all of your clients do?

This wasn’t nearly as bad as the Justinian Plague – and that didn’t even collapse the Byzantines! The virus is in our head – Trump is in our head, violence and collapse and the impending doom playing out before us is all in our heads. And we are allowing it to get worse and worse.

I took my nine year old sledding on Christmas Eve and Christmas day among a host of disgruntled, unemployed families who are watching their futures shrivel up and die. I served them Bailey’s and hot chocolate and tried to make light of this dire situation….I would have dared a police officer to show up!

We can alter the course of history. And we must.

Then defeat the virus to allow economic recovery. It’s the cure for unemployment. Stop with the drama and keep your kids safe at home. – Garth

#84 S.Bby on 12.29.20 at 7:21 pm

The USA has vaxed 2 million people so far for Covid and they were predicting up to 20 million would be vaxed by the end of this year. Oops.

#85 Woke on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

When Obama last won, he won 873 counties and had 69 million votes. Biden just won 477 counties yet apparentlyhad a record 80 million votes… and when folks were going to bed, Trump was winning the 4 key states but magically lost after midnight. Got it.

#86 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

OK, now for my comment of the day that isn’t just responses. Yes, we are going back to my treatise on “wealth redistribution”.

A couple of days ago the topic was “what is wealth and how do you turn it into money to be taxed”. Yesterday my topic was “what would happen if you suddenly gave all the supposedly poor people a bunch more money?”

Today my topic will be “what do the poor really need and how do you make it available to them?”

Is it shares in Microsoft or Amazon? For the US example, do we achieve utopia by forcing Gates and Bezos (and all the other major shareholders) to equally distribute their shares to all other US citizens? What are the previously poor going to do with the fraction of a share they get?

Well, they are going to sell it, because shares aren’t what they want.

But sell to whom? That was covered in the first part so I won’t go over that again.

But for what? Money? Is it money they want? No, I would say none of us wants an extra $24,000 a year if it doesn’t buy anything.

What the poor really want is food and shelter, and maybe affordable transportation. And education for their children. And fresh water. Maybe a nice suit to wear to their job. Maybe a job. Maybe a bike path for some cheap exercise. Maybe a camp site so they can vacation without having to go on a plane. Maybe a hair cut. Maybe a new TV. Maybe all kinds of things that aren’t money but money can buy.

But those things already exist in the market place. And many of them are being provided to the “poor” already at little or no cost. Are there any children in Canada that cannot go to school for lack of money? Is the transit system for the rich or the not so rich? Do the water and sewer systems and roads and parks only serve the rich, who disproportionately pay for them?

And that is the crux of the problem. What the poor really want is not money, that is just numbers in a bank account. What they want is stuff. More stuff. But where is this “more stuff” to come from? Sending everyone money doesn’t create more stuff. Only labor does that. But who des most of the labor? The poor and middle class.

It is a conundrum. If the poor want the rich people’s money to buy more stuff, they themselves will have to work more to create the stuff. The TV’s don’t just put themselves together.

“Wealth redistribution” means there shouldn’t be any rich people. It does not lead to no poor people. All it does is drag everybody down to the level of those who will not, or cannot, work. Which means poverty for everybody.

#87 Elon Fanboy on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

#30 Cliff “ Stop paying so much attention to the 99% who breeze through it and hit the 1% with everything you’ve got. We should start seeing the effect by March, I think.”

Epidemiologists seem to be pretty worried about these new hyper contagious strains. Their exponential growth may overwhelm our medical resources before we can vaccinate enough to get it under control. They also seem to think we now need 90% herd immunity for these nes strains to keep exponential grow from happening.

#88 zee on 12.29.20 at 7:32 pm

This virus is just a problem in Developed countries.

The rest have figured it out, and have moved on and are handling it without any lockdown. No one cares in these countries, they have bigger issues to deal with over there.

#89 Faron on 12.29.20 at 7:33 pm

#53 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 5:17 pm

Wrong again. The masks and distancing have worked to almost eliminate flu. Therefore they have also cut Covid transmission. Most people are following the rules. Some idiots are not.- Garth

Okay, a couple of things then. First, will we need to wear masks, distance and lockdown every flu season forever after?

Garth, if you don’t mind, I’ll pick up where you left off.

Tron Lite: It’s simple. Typical flu is as or less infectious than SARS-CoV2. So, any increase in masking/distancing and restrictions on travel will kill flu faster than our coronavirus friend. Furthermore, typical flu is less deadly by an order of magnitude.

Will we mask up every season from here on out? Maybe. Numerous east Asian countries have worn masks seasonally since SARS-1 if not before. It’s quite likely that people will change the way they act around one another for quite some time whether or not a gov’t is suggesting they do so. It will be done out of a natural self-preservation instinct.

Second, Covid transmission is up in southern Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba and BC. Clearly these measures have not worked otherwise transmission would be down.

You (and your ilk) seem to lack a sense of the delays between gov’t action and infection rates. Infections show up in the numbers about two weeks after the actual infection. So, Ontario’s lock down wont show up until early Jan. Go look at European case numbers. They locked down in November and by December their numbers were falling. In the US you see the numbers falling in some places once the infection rates get high enough that state officials act or people take it upon themselves to slow the spread. You’ve had 9 months to learn this. You embarrass yourself by showing that you have not.

Finally, “some idiots are not.” Is it fair to say then that those idiots, which are supposedly in the minority, are responsible in the increase of transmission of Covid in the above mentioned provinces?

Likely, and likely some through essential activity and likely some average folks who have had enough and cheated just this once.

#90 Faron on 12.29.20 at 7:46 pm

Nothin says freedom like a bald eagle doing a strafing run to protect the prez during his coup. ‘merca. Not to be confused with a merkin.

w/re the photo: that’s one way to catch a coronavirus.

#91 Henny on 12.29.20 at 7:47 pm

So no problem stuffing 700 into a Costco but heaven forbid we let more than 10 into a church. This is not about this years stronger than usual strain of the flu (covid) virus, this is the birthing of socialism in the west.

#92 Kurt on 12.29.20 at 7:48 pm

Thank you for identifying which posts were deleted for anti-mask fanaticism.

#93 Calgary Rip Off on 12.29.20 at 7:49 pm

@ #48 live your life:

For some Covid 19 is mild. Even with tons of studies, https://www.massgeneral.org/news/coronavirus/grand-rounds

or the cell.com showing data from UW about Covid exhausting T cell immunity due to nutrient depletion, or Mass General showing IgG and IgM antibodies showing similarity in initial covid infection followed by depletion and death after several weeks in the second group, there is no clear response to Covid 19. Perhaps it is genetics. Perhaps it is Vitamin D3 levels. Maybe blood type. Maybe Vitamin C levels. Nothing definitive. And that is why things are shut down. That being said the shutdowns will cost billions. The death rate far surpasses normal “flu”. The key is neither you nor I know how someone will react to Covid exposure. And to some that is terrifying. Death is a risk. So is long term heart, lung or some other issue, including loss of limbs. Apparently latest data indicates the virus can affect testes, affecting male fertility, the virus even can affect the carotid sensors affecting need to breath, so for some there may be no shortness of breath, just feeling fine, and then saturations plummet and there is no recourse. And hence the big pandemonium.

I alerted many docs I work with back in January that Covid 19 would be a serious problem. I alerted my manager. I was laughed at and mocked. Told it was just the flu. Not so. Not after the videos I saw in December from Wuhan. And here people are still mocking vitamins, masks, and every other protective measure.

That being said, the majority will survive. But just like Lasik surgery and its botched FDA approval, if you are the N=1 affected, it is a big deal. If you end up blind, then the 20% Lasik eye surgery complication is now a problem. Im using this as an example, not related to Covid.

In the other room I hear nurses I work with laughing. One of them vacationed a month ago with her husband, in Jamaica. She was at a resort. Her and her husband got Covid 19. Got very sick. She is well now. She has O- blood type. She is overweight and early forties.

It is correct that there is risk in living. This virus and its nuttiness exemplifies how small decisions lead to often irreversible outcomes.

#94 LOL on 12.29.20 at 7:52 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#95 El Presidente - Tank Commnder on 12.29.20 at 8:06 pm

History of Tank Commander Trump meme…… it was meant as joke…. but alas the trumpoholics exist in a different reality!

https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/26/18029700/cesar-sayoc-democrat-bombs-trump-tank-meme-joke

#96 kommykim on 12.29.20 at 8:35 pm

RE: #85 Woke on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm
When Obama last won, he won 873 counties and had 69 million votes. Biden just won 477 counties yet apparentlyhad a record 80 million votes… and when folks were going to bed, Trump was winning the 4 key states but magically lost after midnight. Got it.

=======================================

Time for you to awaken to the facts:

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/dec/15/how-biden-managed-win-far-more-votes-2020-obama-di/

#97 Doug t on 12.29.20 at 8:38 pm

#83 the west

Um current quantum physics disagrees with your “ change the course of history” dream – new work says humans have no control of their actions/life – soooo just lighten up and roll lol

#98 Lorne on 12.29.20 at 8:39 pm

#91 Henny on 12.29.20 at 7:47 pm
So no problem stuffing 700 into a Costco but heaven forbid we let more than 10 into a church. This is not about this years stronger than usual strain of the flu (covid) virus, this is the birthing of socialism in the west.
…….
Might want to check out the size of a Costco and compare it to the size of your your church. Plus, Costco sells toilet paper! Your church….well, there is a joke there someplace!

#99 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 8:49 pm

#91 Henny on 12.29.20 at 7:47 pm
So no problem stuffing 700 into a Costco but heaven forbid we let more than 10 into a church. This is not about this years stronger than usual strain of the flu (covid) virus, this is the birthing of socialism in the west.

——————————

Have you been to a Costco? 700 is 25% of fire capacity and people need food.

As for the churches, well I don’t know. I let my subscription expire many years ago so I don’t think about it much. But maybe they should have the same rules as Costco. 25% of fire capacity.

#100 Ross on 12.29.20 at 9:08 pm

DELETED. Anti-masker.

#101 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:17 pm

#86 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

…Sending everyone money doesn’t create more stuff. Only labor does that. But who des most of the labor? The poor and middle class.

Sigh. Can you please just stop posting your rambles for a while until you’ve got a firmer hand on basic economics? You’ve put 2 and 2 together here, but managed to get pi.

give a person $$ > they buy stuff > store has less stuff > store orders more > factory makes stuff for store (person works to make the stuff so both makes more $$ and more stuff is made) > more stuff is made. Our economies are consumer economies and they can be made to grow by expanding consumption. Would you rather the gov’t force corps to make the stuff regardless of demand (a la China)?

Your cognitive errors do help explain why you are stuck on election “fraud” and can’t quite get it that solar power will be a major player in the future of our energy systems. So, at least you are consistent.

#102 Ed on 12.29.20 at 9:20 pm

Rules requiring wearing a mask going down a ski slope is why Canadians are rolling their eyes at many Covid restrictions.
No science no problem.

#103 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:20 pm

#96 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:17 pm

#86 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

And stop reading zerohedge for your “information”. I spent $30 for a month of access so I could follow The Market Ear as they rolled their analysis over to a pay model with ZH. But, aside from TME IMO, what a load of tripe. They nail a very occasional good piece of journalism, but for the most part it’s a wasteland not unlike Medium. Yech.

#104 Reality is stark on 12.29.20 at 9:22 pm

Nothing kickstarts an economy better than impending lower wages for the private sector, much higher incomes for public sector workers with lots of overtime and higher looming taxes.
Don’t forget further offshoring to China and low oil prices.
The only things rising in 2021 will be crime and divorce.
The divide between single family homeowners and the rest will never have been greater. Get a security system.
God help you.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 9:31 pm

Yo BillyBob

What’s your expert opinion on the reintroduction of the 737-Max?
With a year of govt and Boeing crawling all over it…

Safest plane in the air?

#106 MCG on 12.29.20 at 9:41 pm

Turner Nation, that video is a heartbreaking masterpiece; thank you.
This insanity needs to stop. What we are doing to a generation of children is criminal. And no, Garth, the children don’t just get over it.
These vulnerable need to stay home and those who are low-risk need to go in with their lives.
And Garth, why do you position a people being compliant and obedient as laudable traits? How about free, self-determined? How about a people thinking independently and taking personal responsibility?

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 9:58 pm

@#104 Reality is “Dark”
“The only things rising in 2021 will be crime and divorce.”

+++++

Gee Mr Happy … you forgot suicide for the dismal trifecta.

#108 Cal Guy on 12.29.20 at 10:06 pm

Really is a catch 22 with this. Seeing a public gov’t official like the Finance Minister going on a vacation out of country is a bit stupid. I don’t blame him and if he can still work so be it, but at the same time there are many front line workers and people sacrificing who deserve a vacation more and can’t. I can’t do a 14 day quarantine otherwise I would probably go somewhere warmer.

On the other hand, seeing people call for extreme lockdowns etc, perhaps they should give up their salary if making those demands – aren’t we all in this together? The gov’t has failed in many nations and the key to a better 2021 is testing, testing, testing, and vaccine rollout. Testing of people at seniors homes, airports etc will allow some sense of normalcy and things to start opening again. Rapid tests should have been brought in by the millions months ago – Turdeau has failed here.
Vaccines and getting them out – again Canada is one of the lowest rates in terms of countries distributing vaccines. A large chunk of the 400 billion should have been spent on rapid tests and vaccines. Waiting for these things is downright unacceptable in a country like Canada!

#109 Sail Away on 12.29.20 at 10:07 pm

#99 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 8:49 pm

As for the churches, well I don’t know. I let my subscription expire many years ago so I don’t think about it much. But maybe they should have the same rules as Costco. 25% of fire capacity.

————–

You’re in luck. I am currently accepting sycophants to the Church of Sail Away.

The application fee is steep, as are weekly tithes, but you will gain unrelenting guilt, many rules, a deep and ominous sense of foreboding, and the opportunity to genuflect to my likeness.

Hey… that sounds a lot like my firm! Faron is a longstanding member.

#110 Kat on 12.29.20 at 10:10 pm

@Linda, there is no need to wear a mask for outdoor pick up if you can socially distance. Also as for the people with kids in sleds, if they are not close to each other the risk is extraordinary low. My spouse was sent home from getting a test today when he was in the same room with someone working in close quarters who had contact with someone with covid, he had been wearing a mask the whole time. They said his risk was so low to not even warrant a test and sent him on his way with a letter for his employer. My girlfriends kid was playing outside practicing cart wheels with a kid she found out had covid, they of course were not distancing as they are young kids. She found out second hand as she wasn’t even contacted as the risk level was considered too low.So having kids picked up outside while distancing is also considered not a risk or going outside for activities with out a mask, especially if you are distancing is also not a risk.
Give your health authority a call you would be surprised to hear that it takes minimum ten minutes in very close quarters indoors with no mask to even have the chance of contracting it at least that is what my spouse was told at the testing site. Being outside you would have to get close and cough right in someone’s mouth as it is droplet based transmission. I agree this is a hard time and wash hands wear a mask etc but at the same time it seems the public is given tons of misinformation as to infection rate and transmission. No wonder people are pandemic weary as so many are just plain confused and misinformed.

#111 Keen Reader on 12.29.20 at 10:16 pm

@105 CEF
Safest plane in the sky would be the C-Series/A220, with its true FBW systems and modern redundancies, as opposed to being grandfathered to the original B737 certification. But yes, the MAX is undoubtedly much safer now, albeit as part of a system which includes proper training and documentation…

#112 Bumbacs on 12.29.20 at 10:19 pm

Y’all hate trump, I get it… but the marxist alternatives are not going to be pleasant.. the Dems have been infiltrated by the radical left. It is the left that has been destroying American cities and inciting hate and intolerance.

Your children won’t like the world we are leaving behind. This great civilization has been sabotaged by zealots.

#113 Catalyst on 12.29.20 at 10:43 pm

Garth, I agree with you on peoples actions during this lockdwon. I went to a no-frills today and had wall-to-wall people with no distancing, not respecting store customer limits and this has only started since the ‘lockdowns’. I dont know where these people shopped before but get out of my no frills. It’s been low traffic since april and now we’ve gone into superspreader mode from lockdown orders. So frustrating. I honestly believe lockdowns cause more spread because we are forced to congregate in few locations.

As for the stock market, look out. No reason to be in it at all right now. Am I supposed to believe that these small caps are going to go from 50x sales to 100x sales or the mega caps are all going to be 5 trillion dollar companies, I dont think so. We need a great reset or a complete collapse of currency and I’m not sure which one will happen.

The global elite have conspired to continually lower rates which only benefits asset holders to the detriment of us wage slaves. Instead we get increased taxes on CPP, EI, and carbon tax and they get interest rate cuts and gov’t buying bonds.

I have a question, where is the 99% crowd? This is 10x larger wealthy bailout than back in 2008 and no protests in the streets. We are bombarded on the news with people who can’t pay rent or afford food yet everyone I know said its the best year they ever had. Houses up, wages up, commute and childcare costs down. Same with the old crap about how 50% of households are $200 away from insolvency yet we have so much cash all of a sudden that the finance minister is begging people for ideas how to take it? The world is a sham right now with so much fake news and data that no one knows what is going on.

I’m not optimistic on 2021.

#114 45north on 12.29.20 at 10:45 pm

Juan Trump and his drama will be gone?
You mean the drama created by the lies from the media?

Garth if you’re going to comment on American politics, it’s worth an hour of your time. Here’s the hour.

15 minutes to verify three points:

– Hunter Biden spilled coffee on his laptop and took it to a repair shop
– when he didn’t claim it after 90 days, the shop owner took possession as per the signed agreement
– the laptop shows dealings in foreign companies for which he (Hunter Biden) had no qualifications

0 minutes to form the suspicion

Hunter Biden was selling influence with his father ( Vice President at the time )

30 minutes to watch

Tucker Carlson interview Tony Bobulinski

another 15 minutes to look for evidence of Russian interference

Total time: 60 minutes

Nobody cares. – Garth

#115 Jim on 12.29.20 at 10:54 pm

So lets say a Covid variant broke out that actually killed healthy people, but those who got Covid-19 were immune to the new variant, but the current vaccine was ineffective against it.

I wonder how many people would line up to get sneezed on by someone who had Covid-19?

#116 Branch Covidians on 12.29.20 at 10:57 pm

Why are those of the Covidian faith so alarmed this winter? The numbers collected by the Province of Ontario do not mesh with the generated paranoia, as per the following:

>https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

Number of new cases at the height of the “1st wave” (late April): approx. 600 cases per day
Number of tests performed at the height of the “1st wave”: approx. 10,000-12,000 per day
Percentage of tests positive from April-May: ~6%

NOW:
Number of new cases at the height of the “2nd wave” (December 24): approx. 2400 cases per day
Number of tests performed at for December 24: approx. 64,500 per day
Percentage of tests positive from April-May: Less than 6%

What do the Branch Covidians say to this? The numbers are clearly NOT going up by any appreciable measure; the only thing that has changed is the government has expanded the testing regimen by approximately 6x which has resulted in ONLY 4x more confirmed infections. The conclusion is that this is FAR MORE prolific than the numbers indicated, and the full extent of the infection is completely UNKNOWN until the government has a robust randomized testing protocol for the entire population, rather than just people who crawl into a clinic with what they feel are symptoms. My suspicion is that 30-40% of the population has already had or currently carries the virus.

This begs the question: given that the data is so easily accessible and digestible with no scientific literacy needed, are most of the Covidians blind or just lazy?

#117 Deadman’s plea on 12.29.20 at 11:17 pm

DELETED

#118 Lead Paint on 12.29.20 at 11:52 pm

#28 Better than Adele! on 12.29.20 at 3:43 pm

Anyone who thinks that unskilled labour will make a comeback in North America should watch your video of dancing robots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw

I think this is an argument for some form of UBI. I give amazon warehouse workers about 5 years before they are replace en masse. Uber drivers and delivery not far behind. If you think people are rebelling now, we haven’t seen anything yet!

#119 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 11:58 pm

#101 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:17 pm
#86 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

…Sending everyone money doesn’t create more stuff. Only labor does that. But who des most of the labor? The poor and middle class.

Sigh. Can you please just stop posting your rambles for a while until you’ve got a firmer hand on basic economics? You’ve put 2 and 2 together here, but managed to get pi.

give a person $$ > they buy stuff > store has less stuff > store orders more > factory makes stuff for store (person works to make the stuff so both makes more $$ and more stuff is made) > more stuff is made. Our economies are consumer economies and they can be made to grow by expanding consumption. Would you rather the gov’t force corps to make the stuff regardless of demand (a la China)?

Your cognitive errors do help explain why you are stuck on election “fraud” and can’t quite get it that solar power will be a major player in the future of our energy systems. So, at least you are consistent.

———————————

Oh where to start.

So first of all all that can be made is being made and money printing doesn’t change that. Only productivity improvements do. Henry Ford introduced affordable cars through the assembly line, not via the central bank passing out money.

The key to capitalism (Adam Smith style, not central bank style) is that stuff gets cheaper. More can be made with less and it has to be sold at lower prices. This creates wealth in the real world even if it does not do so in the financial world. Those two worlds will always be in conflict.

————————-

“Your cognitive errors do help explain why you are stuck on election “fraud” and can’t quite get it that solar power will be a major player in the future of our energy systems. So, at least you are consistent.”

The election is at this point settled. But I think Trump had a duty to make sure it was fair. It is a fair comment that he went overboard.

Solar power is a dead end without massive battery storage (of some unto hither unknown type) and massive over building. It’s just simple physics. Solar panels do not generate power at night, and thus they must not only generate enough power to run things during the day but must also charge up the night time batteries. And the rainy day batteries. And the winter batteries. Stop arguing with engineers if you are not one.

#120 Gg on 12.30.20 at 12:16 am

David Dodge said it best:

“It’s easy for people to understand why households needed to be supported during the crisis. It’s much harder to understand why you have to switch emphasis now the crisis is over,” Dodge said. “Unlike the situation in 93/94, the public was a great ally to the minister of finance. That’s not true today – in fact, now the minister of finance reflects the public mood that there’s free money out there and the government should distribute it. But when they say, ‘The government has your back’, that’s absolute bullshit. It means future generations have the back of the people being hurt now. That’s fine but at least be honest about it.”

#121 Faron on 12.30.20 at 12:59 am

Not sure if anyone here holds AC stock or entertains the idea. It’s curremtly priced at mid 2018 levels. Hard to imagine it or any airline doing 2018 amounts of business anytime in next several years. Business travel may take a while to recover and, after a brief vacation surge in 2021, leisure travel will be very low. Not that anyone here should be holding single stocks anyways…

#122 Diharv on 12.30.20 at 2:00 am

#81 Juan on 12.29.20 at 7:18 pm
Your post is idiotic even for someone who has drank the orange koolaid.

#123 Big Liberal Fan on 12.30.20 at 3:35 am

DELETED

#124 westcdn on 12.30.20 at 4:37 am

All lot things I don’t know. Things I remember were hunting for pop bottles so I could buy a comic book. It took three and I could buy three jaw breakers for a penny or licorice – things we called n**** babies. It was the times.

My happy hunting ground was the ravine across the convenient store. The older boys would taunt me when they found me savaging but I wanted the comic book. I also saved money (25 cents) to see movies at the Cedarview. It was run by a family that lived on the roof above the theater.

They ran a lucky seat draw. I actually got an air powered spider – love that family but they got pushed into bankruptcy.

Another I liked was going to the landfill. I would hunt down things that I thought were useful. At the end of the day, I do not not forget where I from.

#125 devore on 12.30.20 at 4:46 am

#72 Nonplused

Outside the world where feelings rule over reality, China is not a race, therefore “Chinese flu” is not racist, just like “Spanish flu” is not. Now, excuse me while I dig into this fine takeout French cuisine. Or is that racist too now? Perhaps too much cultural approprition, after all I am not French, who am I to enjoy French food. Who knows, the rules change daily, and are retroactive, so you too can get punished for past ‘transgressions’.

#126 BillyBob on 12.30.20 at 7:01 am

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 9:31 pm
Yo BillyBob

What’s your expert opinion on the reintroduction of the 737-Max?
With a year of govt and Boeing crawling all over it…

Safest plane in the air?

================================

Thing about “safety” is, you can only judge it after the fact. No matter what engineers will try and tell you (or not tell you, in the case of MCAS) about this or that system or design. Which is why it is incumbent on pilots to be more than their machines and never stop thinking critically.

I would certainly have no qualms whatsoever about either operating or flying as a passenger in the B737Max. As I said before: it’s the next MCAS lurking out there we haven’t recognized yet that is the threat, not the last one. The eagerness to embrace technology as the solution to everything without properly considering unforeseen consequences will have more bad endings.

#127 BillyBob on 12.30.20 at 7:21 am

#64 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 6:17 pm

People just don’t seem to get it. It proves the old adage that half the population is below average IQ. Unfortunately it seems that this half of the population is exactly the same half that seems to be oblivious to the fact that their brain is letting them down.

==================================

Yep. And everyone gets one vote.

Dunning-Kruger, meet Facebook.

This article is older but sums it up nicely. Speaks to scientific fields, but also applies to our current age of “experts in their own minds”, those who proffer very strong opinions on things they have no actual experience with, utterly convinced of their wisdom by their social media echo chambers.

I admit many quotes did bring a certain amusingly GTA-centric poster to mind:

“Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices,” David Dunning and Justin Kruger wrote in their 1999 paper describing the phenomenon, “but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.”

Or, as English actor and comedian John Cleese once said: “If you’re very, very stupid, how can you possibly realize that you’re very, very stupid? You’d have to be relatively intelligent to realize how stupid you are.”

But as always, the solution for these types is to double down on their position. Which is why I’m highly doubtful for an improving future if the status quo remains without some return to rationality over “feeling” something is true.

But the herd IS profitable, so there’s that.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/people-with-extreme-anti-science-views-know-the-least-but-think-they-know-the-most-study

#128 millmech on 12.30.20 at 7:59 am

//www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/ontario-finance-minister-says-he-s-returning-home-as-news-of-caribbean-vacation-sparks-anger/ar-BB1ckjQG?ocid=msedgdhp

You see Garth we are all told to self isolate, not travel, wear masks because we are saving ourselves even you are pursuing this through your blog. Yet the people in power, the leadership that is suppose to lead keeps tripping over themselves by doing the exact opposite of what they tell us is in our own best interest. People will now read articles like this and will think that they are being lied to, why follow the doctrine when the people who are setting the examples themselves do not. Bullet meet foot again, this is happening everyday, so until we get real leadership who lead by example you will just be deleting and labelling like crazy because if it was really this bad our leaders would not be this hypocritical.(Funny that it was only after public outcry that “saner” decisions were made)

The actions of one elected bozo (who will likely be fired) does not justify bad public behaviour. We are only hurting ourselves the longer the pandemic is allowed to rage. – Garth

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 8:23 am

@#114 4.5 north

“– Hunter Biden spilled coffee on his laptop and took it to a repair shop”

++++++
You can’t start a joke and not finish it…..
What’s the punchline ?

#130 Love_The_Cottage on 12.30.20 at 8:50 am

#127 BillyBob on 12.30.20 at 7:21 am
…John Cleese once said: “If you’re very, very stupid, how can you possibly realize that you’re very, very stupid? You’d have to be relatively intelligent to realize how stupid you are.”
_______
Yes, and similarly:
“It’s very hard not to be condescending when you’re explaining something to an idiot” – Bill Maher.

One sign is how often someone is comfortable saying ‘I don’t know’. The smarter you are, the more likely you are to realize there are a million things you aren’t an expert at.

#131 the Jaguar on 12.30.20 at 8:57 am

Good column written by Richard C. Owens in this mornings National Post about life under Covid. Here is an excerpt for all the WFH in sweats folks:

“Our lives are fragile, but we must risk them to make them meaningful. Life always calls us to take risks, emotional and physical — a child’s illness, a flight, even a commute on the 401. To take undue risks is imprudent; to take none is, too. Only at risk are we truly alive. That doesn’t mean climbing Everest; it may be risk as intimate as loving someone — especially in a time of plague.
Retail clerks and nurses and my barber have demonstrated far more bravery (and common sense) in 2020 than our chattering classes and our public sector and even, strangely, our youth generally, who seem unreasonably cowed by COVID. “

#132 David Hawke on 12.30.20 at 9:04 am

Spot-on!

#58 Yukon Elvis on 12.29.20 at 5:31 pm
#15 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 2:52 pm

#21 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:14 pm

#26 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:38 pm

#29 Dunce Vita on 12.29.20 at 3:44 pm
…………………………………

That’s four already today. In 52 minutes. Lay off the crack.

#133 George S on 12.30.20 at 9:12 am

When I went into the outpatient clinic at the local hospital for a medical test I noticed a faded ancient poster on the wall instructing people how to use a mask properly and sanitize their hands regularly to help prevent influenza transmission. These precautions have been in use for a very long time and have been used because they are effective.
This fall in the midst of a pandemic Canada still managed to immunize millions of people in a couple of months. It will not take 75 years or whatever absurd length of time some people are predicting.
People are making a big mistake by extrapolating data off into the future when they have no idea whatsoever what the future will bring. Extrapolation of data is the cause of so many problems, remember “it is different this time”, the mantra of every financial bubble?
The reason C19 is more of a problem than influenza is that it kills a higher portion of infected people, and kills them much more slowly after they have been put on full out ICU ventilator care for weeks.

The pictured iPad cover is perfect. It is like a person having a tattoo on their forehead saying what type of person they are and you can use it to decide whether you want to associate with them or not.
It also looks suspiciously like a KJU poster that has been photoshopped.

#134 Penny Henny on 12.30.20 at 9:24 am

#89 Faron on 12.29.20 at 7:33 pm

You (and your ilk) seem to lack a sense of the delays between gov’t action and infection rates. Infections show up in the numbers about two weeks after the actual infection.
//////////////////

The Toronto corona virus is not following the playbook.
They’ve been locked down since (early?) November and numbers are not retreating, actually the opposite.

#135 Prince Polo on 12.30.20 at 9:24 am

Wow – lots of anti-maskers commentary today. Don’t these people know that they can make their own blogs? Sheesh, man!

Some good ol’ Canadiana for those in need of some chillaxin’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=je0xv0GD91s

And the reboot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L10-nI9rkks

#136 Blog Bunny on 12.30.20 at 9:29 am

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/ontario-finance-minister-says-he-s-returning-home-as-news-of-caribbean-vacation-sparks-anger/ar-BB1ckjQG?ocid=msedgdhp

I just saw that as well. So there is one set of rules for the elites and another one for the rest of us? No effing way. I have zero respect for these clowns and I do not fear them. I have two international trips planned for next year. Inter-provincial travel every month so far. Zero guilt. Take that, Mr. Phillips.

Using an idiot’s action to justify your own idiotic actions is no defence. You’re both hurting society by delaying the resolution to this mess. – Garth

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 9:34 am

@#130 Cottage Luv

“My God man! You are mercifully devoid of the ravages of intelligence! ” – John Cleese to Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda

#138 Prince Polo on 12.30.20 at 9:37 am

#85 Woke on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm
When Obama last won, he won 873 counties and had 69 million votes. Biden just won 477 counties yet apparentlyhad a record 80 million votes… and when folks were going to bed, Trump was winning the 4 key states but magically lost after midnight. Got it.
================================
You are not WOKE enough. Order of operations matters – think of BEDMAS (Brackets, Exponents, Division, Multiplication, Addition, Subtraction). The (sarcasm ON) “illustrious” (sarcasm OFF) one bleating on about fraud leading up to the election, probably meant substantially less mail-in ballots for him. In-person votes counted first. Then mail-in ballots. Magical, isn’t it?

#139 Blog Bunny on 12.30.20 at 9:41 am

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/despite-pandemic-liberal-mna-arcand-travels-to-barbados-with-his-wife

Here is another one. Case in point: do whatever you want and then apologize profusely and pretend you will do your 14 day quarantine. How are we supposed to take these restrictions seriously? My family did meet over for Christmas. We all live in different provinces. Zero guilt. The elites are heartless and want us to be sheep while they live the good life. It makes me so angry.

#140 All hail the new Emperor on 12.30.20 at 9:45 am

Barb #35
How could such a horrible human being ever become the leader of such a magnificent nation?!?!

Kind, good intentioned Kings always weakened nations throughout history and were mostly followed by strong, fearless and dominant Kings to clean up the mess.

Looks like we are headed back to the weak King phase.

#141 IslandDave on 12.30.20 at 10:04 am

Smallpox? Umm, haven’t heard much about whooping cough lately, polio used to be all too common. But maybe you’re right, sort of…

#142 Dharma Bum on 12.30.20 at 10:11 am

#86 Nonplused

“Wealth redistribution” means there shouldn’t be any rich people. It does not lead to no poor people. All it does is drag everybody down to the level of those who will not, or cannot, work. Which means poverty for everybody.
——————————————————————–

Some day, I’d love to visit your planet.

#143 jal on 12.30.20 at 10:20 am

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.20 at 8:23 am
@#114 4.5 north

“– Hunter Biden spilled coffee on his laptop and took it to a repair shop”

++++++
You can’t start a joke and not finish it…..
What’s the punchline ?
———-
Punchline ….
Nobody cares. – Garth
——
Everyone who have hired enablers are doing it.

#144 jess on 12.30.20 at 10:29 am

history rhymes from the first journalist ‘Civilization is a very thin veneer’: What the plague of Athens can teach us about dealing with COVID-19

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/civilization-is-a-very-thin-veneer-what-the-plague-of-athens-can-teach-us-about-dealing-with-covid-19-1.5624000

#145 Phylis on 12.30.20 at 10:33 am

#119 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 11:58 pm The physicists will let you know if you are wrong. Anyone? Anyone? Buller?

#146 maxx on 12.30.20 at 10:35 am

@ #8

Agree. Although legal, add to the maskless all of those supposedly leading by example, for instance some high-ranking politicians (wonder what the complete list looks like), currently enjoying the warmth and sunshine of the Caribbean and other winter vacation spots whilst the rest of us “do our part to stop the spread”.

As for the rate of vax, I’m not surprised in the least. I can’t say it enough, we live in a lazy and entitled world (front-liners excepted), where far too many seem to think “me first”, from the top down. Witness the way front-liners have been and are still being treated: this is a decision-maker’s problem. Reroute all of wasted tax into the health care system, we’ve paid for it!

– Vax pause at Xmas: fail;
– Prevaricating on who first (after front liners) and dosing rate: fail;
– Confusing messaging, especially on masking (could still have diverted PPE to hospitals and care institutions and told the public to make their own…are we totally, bloody helpless?) – huge fail;
– Lack of a level playing field for business – complete and utter fail;
– Lack of control on pricing for essential protective items at a time when most everyone is vulnerable – embarrassing fail. $1 for a single-use paper mask?!!

It would appear that the medical and scientific fields are the ones who truly came to the rescue. “Management” had their fingers up their backsides.

#147 Dharma Bum on 12.30.20 at 10:41 am

NEW YEAR’S PREDICTIONS

It’s December 30th – is it too early? I’ll make them anyway:

1) The life we lead in 2020 will continue exactly the same way for all of 2021. Vaccine notwithstanding, it will take a minimum of 18 months from now for the effects of the vaccinations to be seen. Nobody has a clue how to reduce the spread of COVID to any lower than what it is now. So, rotating lockdowns of varying degrees will continue well into 2022. The virus will continue to run its course. We will just have to learn to live with thousands of daily new infections, thousands of daily new recoveries, and a percentage of fatalities. There is nothing we can do about it. Although we will continue to fool ourselves about measures to contain it, the infections will continue as they do now.

2) Doug Ford will become increasingly obese and start losing his mind as his ignorant hypocrisy intensifies.

3) Justin Trudeau will continue to take further advantage of his opportunity for full on dictatorship. More free money will continue to be distributed by him to people who do not want to work in the name of COVID. There will be no consideration for the long term financial impact on the country. He will smirk even more smugly than ever while speaking moistly.

3) The stock market will flourish as long as COVID is an issue (at least another 18 months), and its upward momentum will continue into early 2023. This will be a direct result of the liquidity injections by the CBs. The wealth divide will be gaping by then, and beyond rectification. The indebted, impoverished masses will sink deeper into the abyss, as COVID provides yet another unfair advantage to the 1%ers.

4) The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, will win an election by a landslide as never before seen in a Canadian election. This will be the easiest campaign ever. No platforms or policies. It will essentially be: “Vote for me. I will pay you. I have been paying you, and I will continue to pay you. You do not have to do anything. Just stay home, and wait for my cheques.”

5) The Carabinieri will move Dolce from the facility that he is currently institutionalized in, to one that has no wi-fi, so we will not see any more insane ramblings from him. That might take until at least 2023, since the Italo-cops will be too busy arresting the population at large for COVID infractions when they’re not busy hanging out at the local bars drinking wine, sipping espresso, taking mafiosi bribes and dipping focaccia and ciabatta in olive oil. (Just kidding bro! Ti amo come un fratello!)

#148 Brett in Calgary on 12.30.20 at 10:44 am

The kids will get over it. – Garth
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I think this is exactly what makes the COVID response so heated. Although I generally agree with you for kids < 8 years old, I disagree for older children and teenagers.

Lockdowns etc. very much put parents in a position of choosing their kids, or their parents. You can't have it both ways, and so, as time passes parents wonder, "am I doing the right thing"?

The right thing is to get this damn pandemic behind us. Otherwise you are imperiling your children’s future as the economy spirals inwards and the health system is overwhelmed. How is this even a debate? – Garth

#149 millmech on 12.30.20 at 10:48 am

Garth,
Why/how is our great leader Trudeau still in power, remember how important social distancing was, until a great photo op was needed. Multiple levels of privilege I guess.
http://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/us/justin-trudeau-kneel-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html
Is our Leader also a “bozo”, for all of his contradictory actions throughout this pandemic.

#150 Yuus bin Haad on 12.30.20 at 10:49 am

Can we talk about the one-way aisles in the grocery stores? I know they’re pealing up, but some dedicated clerk went to the trouble of sticking those directional arrows down and the least we can do is respect them.

#151 Brett in Calgary on 12.30.20 at 11:02 am

Get the pandemic behind us – agreed.

Vaccinate – agreed.

The kids will get over it – don’t agree.

Too bad. Focus on the greater good, like your children’s future. – Garth

#152 Sally Punt on 12.30.20 at 11:06 am

#121 Faron. Your comment proves why certain people ( like yourself) should never buy stocks.

AC has doubled this year. I own a few other airline related and OTA stocks that are screaming winners for the year. Stick with Garth at 5% , the doubles and triples are not for everyone.

If I were to expand on your commentary then Trudeau would kill us by the tens of thousands failing to arrange a vax for Canada and the world bans Canada from flying as a pariah state. It’s already happened. But Canadians are leaving the country in droves to winter elsewhere. $10 bucks says the RCMP has spirited Justin to some Caribbean Island and his spit-ups are either pre recorded or from a windowless room. Mexico is full of Quebecers. The Caribbean is hosting Ontario finance ministers and they’re all Covid positive. No one cares.

But is it a lock that AC will keep running? As sure as Justin will puke up another Covid vax fake out.

Trudeau will likely kill a few hundred thousand before any vaccination, but that doesn’t mean AC won’t double again. Hard to understand? That’s why some people shouldn’t buy stocks.

#153 Dual Citizen In Canada on 12.30.20 at 11:18 am

The anti-maskers are using freedom as a defense. Are they defending the freedom to breathe or breed?

#154 Faron on 12.30.20 at 11:41 am

#152 Sally Punt on 12.30.20 at 11:06 am

#121 Faron. Your comment proves why certain people ( like yourself) should never buy stocks.

I actually had a very nice run with AC in May/June riding the psychology of everyone’s deluded vision of the pandemic ending and returning to normalcy early. But thanks.

Sure, AC will keep running. I never claimed it was on its way to bankruptcy (although its business case sucks and shows little signs of improvement). But, It wasn’t hard to see that it was going to turn around from its recent $28 high. There are better opportunities elsewhere…

FYI, lacing your comment with tripe about Justin Trudeau doesn’t help me or anyone else take you seriously.

#155 Calgary Rip Off on 12.30.20 at 12:20 pm

@#148 and Garth:

This is a debate because most people in Alberta are idiots. This is demonstrated by the anti mask rallys and the voter pattern. I see it every day driving to the hospital: Drivers driving slow likely because they are recovering from too much alcohol. Slow reaction time and general stupid decisions. Then the endless ranting about how Trudeau is to blame for everything. Then there is the housing issue. People thinking their $500K is actually worth that much.

Good luck Garth on educating these pseudo conservatives. Conservative in Canada doesnt work.

Thank you for your continuing efforts on educating the ignorant, myself included.

#156 Faron on 12.30.20 at 12:28 pm

#119 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 11:58 pm

#101 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:17 pm
#86 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 7:31 pm

First, noting the other thread about expertise and perceived expertise; I am no more an expert economist than you are, nonplused. I readily admit that my understanding of economics comes from reading and listening to people who are expert and distant recollections of high school econ. Those are my creds.

That out of the way (with the sincerity of an indigenous lands acknowledgement)…

Garth, I’m sorry for the tome that follows.

So first of all all that can be made is being made and money printing doesn’t change that. Only productivity improvements do.

Nonplused, what happens when consumer confidence falters and then outright consumption falls in an economy? Does productivity change? It seems in your understanding of economics, the only driver of economic growth is increased productivity. That certainly is one dimension, and an important and faltering one, of economic expansion. But, it’s one of many dimensions.

Other dimensions of economic growth? Expansions in the consumer base through population growth or improvements in the standard of living of people already participating in the economy through improved economic well-being. Decreases in material costs are another.

Can money printing lever any of productivity, pop growth, standard of living or material costs? Yes, standard of living. If money printing helps fund government excess through support of the bond market and if some of that excess comes in the form of support for wages, social support or direct cash stimulus the standard of living will be improved especially relative to what would happen if those supports were not in place. Furthermore, a failure to support the consumer ranging from those making low or no wages to those making high wages would result in economic recession/contraction which could trigger a feedback resulting in less consumption and an ongoing decrease in the size of the economy.

Central bank actions also propped up the credit markets. That allowed businesses of medium to large size (those with the highest productivity through economics of scale) to remain solvent. So, you could argue that printing actually helped maintain productivity (if not increase it).

Finally on econ (or actually finance): You ramble about notional versus liquid/real wealth. To that, I bring to you Mackenzie Scott, co-founder of Amazon and with a net worth of, now, $60B. According to you, that would be paper wealth and of limited real use to her, no? How then could she have given away $6B in philanthropic gifts in cash??? How is it that she intends to give away the majority of her wealth? Huh. Seems she was able to convert that notional wealth to real wealth, so maybe the wealthy actually are… wealthy?

W/re Trump: By continuing to claim he had some “duty” to investigate you are hinting that there was something to be investigated despite what experts in his own party and own administration who knew better were telling him and despite massive failure of his idiots in the courts at all levels. Because there was nothing there to investigate, it’s clear that his actions were a complete fabrication. Because they were fabrications, he actually had a duty to not lie to the public and to concede an election that was actually an utter landslide in favor of Biden. You can’t cover up your earlier claims of fraud by now saying it’s settled. You are on record and you were led down the wrong path and you actually should apologize or admit your, however small, role in propagating Trumps own fraud which is what lying is.

W/re engineering: I make mistakes. Because I make mistakes, I’ve always been very glad that I am not responsible for engineering things that are important to day-to-day living. I was happy that there are engineers in the world who can do this work with great care and precision. But, now knowing that you are some kind of engineer and knowing how flawed your understanding of basic concepts is and how willing you are to tromp down illusory, fabricated paths of “thought” I worry. Luckily, you are one of thousands so my lights are on and my house is standing and bridges do not fall from beneath me, but man…

#157 Kp on 12.30.20 at 12:36 pm

Sticking with the known science based facts the virus rarely spreads outdoors based on evidence from contact tracing and studies done in different countries.

I do not believe that the vaccine will get rid of this 100%. We need to learn to live with this virus. I think we’ll be able to reduce infections but not eliminate it. It will evolve and we’ll try to keep up. The two groups in danger are 80+, very risky and 65+ somewhat risky. For the other people I think that exercise, good food and spending time outside with friends and family is best.

It’s interesting to observe how much these lockdowns stress people out. Here in ottawa where nothing has changed from a week ago, the people at the grocery store are way more fearful and stressed than a week ago.

Our government and medical community should be way more open with the data. Cbc has mostly been horrible minus two or three balanced articles. We are a very fearful and risk adverse nation and it seems to be getting worse.

A life lived in fear is very limited and while the perceived safety of closing off may seem and feel good in the short term… I believe we humans need social contact.

#158 Bill on 12.30.20 at 12:52 pm

Glad you posted this.
Yes huge risks all the way around. Gov supported bond markets and all.
Historically and comparatively nothing is running in balance anymore.
Everybody knows Venezualas situation…i know it well and I spent a couple hrs watching 2 programs on youtube last night. One dude was a Russian reporter. Seeing is believing and if you want to be shocked have a look.
Our foolish government is inacting the same policies that just may get us there in time. There is no free lunch period.
Venezuela is some scary shit no one predicted.
Let’s hope for better things but be prepared.
Yes kids will he’ll over it…Like the Vietnam war…its now a go to destination and people are wonderful.

#159 Sail Away on 12.30.20 at 12:53 pm

#150 Yuus bin Haad on 12.30.20 at 10:49 am

Can we talk about the one-way aisles in the grocery stores? I know they’re pealing up, but some dedicated clerk went to the trouble of sticking those directional arrows down and the least we can do is respect them.

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Just don’t get trapped in a box canyon, Little Joe!

#160 WTF on 12.30.20 at 1:27 pm

Speaking of the resurgence of a second virus.

TREB is at it again with their ethical behavior.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trreb-home-sales-data_ca_5feb8fadc5b66809cb34e565

Over to the Competition Board……AGAIN.

#148 “This is a debate because most people in Alberta are idiots”

Ha, had to chuckle over that one. There is a mythology in Alberta of rugged individualism, can do, git er done, ect… No Alberta you don’t work any harder, you aren’t any smarter. Oil was your savior. Wexit indeed….

#161 Pandemic my ass on 12.30.20 at 1:30 pm

DELETED

#162 Stoph on 12.30.20 at 1:58 pm

#119 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 11:58 pm
#101 Faron on 12.29.20 at 9:17 pm

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Electricity production needs to exactly match electricity consumption at every instant. There’s typically low demand at night, a ramp up in the morning, and then a peak at night when people come home and turn on lights. Peak demand determines what the system total capacity must be… so if peak demand is in the evening at dinner time when the sun has set, then without energy storage, solar can’t contribute to supplying electricity at peak demand and alternative generation capacity must be available. If on the other hand, peak demand is mid day due to high AC usage, then solar will provide a nice off set.

Hydro is great, as it easily accommodates for the storage of power as you can turn it on and off easily (BC Hydro makes use of this when it sells power to California during the day to meet peak demand and buys power back at night). Pumped hydro is another option of storing power (California has a bunch). Batteries are another option. Regulating demand is another possibility (ie. have smart devices that turn on when demand is low or excess power is available.)

In short, the mass adoption of solar is dependent on other technologies as well so that electricity generation matches demand. That being said, these aren’t insurmountable challenges and if the benefits are greater than the costs, then solar will be adopted.

Here’s some basic info on the electrical demand curve.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830

#163 Doug in London on 12.30.20 at 3:01 pm

I have no idea of what will happen in the coming months, but hope to vaccinated in time for any Canada Day festivities. As for making any big plans, remember the saying that when people make plans God laughs.

Otherwise I’ll do the bore you to tears stuff like watch my investments and if any late (or early) Boxing Day sales come along I’ll scoop some up. If no on sale deals come along I’ll act like the governor that does nothing if the speed doesn’t change.

#164 Spectacle on 12.30.20 at 4:45 pm

27 CJ on 12.29.20 at 3:40 pm
Imagine …”blah blah…….” mocking parents for taking their little ones tobogganing. Guess what Garth? There is little to no chance of spreading the virus outside.
Let the kids free. The lockdown is ridiculous.

That was just stupid and unnecessarily personal. Every parent in close proximity to every other parent should be masked in the midst of a lockdown. You have no point. – Garth

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Actualy viruses can spread across several hunred feet in outside air.
2 million children caught first round of virus, many people have many month long symptoms, including death from it. 2 & 3rd veneration mutations are potentially more contagious and wedont have facts, but equally deay across same populations. Can get ut 2 and 3 times.

Your personal attack on Sir Turner is not appreciated either. Imagine the worldwide calamity from the depression hitting our economy and potential market for our investments.

#165 Freedolay on 12.30.20 at 5:10 pm

Front-line health care worker here just arriving home from my initial covid immunization. It was an impressive and seamless operation. Must confess I got a bit choked up watching my colleagues step up like this but then I wouldn’t expect anything different. Problem is with the rate I observed it will take a long, long time to get a meaningful number completed. One can only hope we quickly expand the process BIG TIME. So far just a dull ache in the arm. Expect some additional aches and pains over the coming 24 hours. Essentially my immune system ramping up its memory so it will quickly recognize any future exposures to the pesky pathogen and then dispatch it promptly!

#166 Elon Fanboy on 12.30.20 at 8:43 pm

Well my daughter is getting vaccinated on Monday. She’s only 17 but works in a LTC home.

BC has vaccinated an average of 750/day over the last week. At that rate it would take 18 years to hit the supposed 70% herd immunity in BC.

Given our PM has publicly stated anyone who wants it can have it by end of Sept, that means BC needs to ramp upto 13,000 vaccinations per day.

I can’t believe we stopped over the break, why aren’t we vaccinating 24/7?

#167 Cherish Witherspoone on 12.30.20 at 9:56 pm

#166 EL. The reason there are only photo-op numbers of people getting vaxxed is because Trudeau was only able to beg a Belgian NGO for a single case of vaccine in order to staunch his bleeding poll numbers. There is no vax scheduled for arrival in Canada. It’s all one big “ don’t blame Justin” photo op campaign. Look into the facts everyone. Justin screwed up and his PR people in Washington DC ( K Street to be exact) are trying to fool Canadians with a lie.

Cutting through the utter BS from the Liberals is their own announcements that it’s no vax for Vanada until at least October 21. No amount of “ good news” from Trudeau can disguise the slip from Tam that hundreds of thousands will die between now and then.

#168 Old Ron on 12.30.20 at 10:07 pm

Elon Fanboy :

The vaccines have been delivered to the PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS. THEY RUN HEALTH. If the vaccines are slow, talk to your PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT !

THE PM promised the vaccine and the FEDS delivered it on time. It is up to the Provinces from here.