Torch it

But a few more sleeps ‘til this miserable year expires. I hear there are calendar-bonfire parties planned. No wonder. A pox on it.

In many ways 2020 has defied logic. We’re ending the year with three-quarters of the Canadian population in a gritty, frozen lockdown. Millions have lost their jobs. Small businesses are collapsing. Governments are broke. Fifteen thousand dead from something we never heard of eleven months ago.

And yet the financial markers are historic. House prices hit a record high this year. The personal savings rate soared as never before. The cost of a mortgage sits at the lowest point ever. The federal deficit is the fattest in history. And stock markets have leapt to a new plateau – in the same year they fell into bear territory at the fastest pace in memory.

Wow. Look at the S&P 500 so far this year.

So here we are in the final days. Your balanced portfolio made good money. Your real estate is (probably) worth more. If you WFH your costs are way down and personal finances better. The virus is worse, not better, and nobody in July expected Christmas would be cancelled. Now we’re into the teeth of winter and you can’t even go sit in a Timmies.

Anyone who tried to make good predictions a year ago was daft. In fact, attemptong to foretell the future is moronic, foolhardy, arrogant and brazen. So, here we go…

Equity markets.
Hard to imagine a new string of record highs will not occur. The biggest inoculation in global history is being rolled out and the slimy little pathogen will ultimately retreat. The world’s economy will sputter to life again, led by the USA. More demand means higher commodity prices which is good for Canada. Pent-up demand after months of lockdowns and quarantines will combine with high savings to fuel consumer spending. Corporate profits will reflect this and meanwhile the virus poured gas on a whole new tranche of online businesses. 2021 will not be a year to sit in cash.

The cost of money.
What you see is what you’ll get. Central banks are too freaked out to move their benchmarks for at least a full year, maybe two. They’ll also keep buying up government bonds to suppress yields, flood the world with liquidity and keep the lights on. Mortgages in the 1.5% range are here for most of 2021. But not forever. As inflation becomes a thing again bond market investors will be demanding protection, goosing yields no matter what the CBs want. So, yes, lock in.

WFH
It’s been one of the most defining features of the year of the virus. Four in ten Canadians ended up beavering from home. Offices closed. Downtowns emptied. Commuting, dogwalking, dry cleaning and child care costs sunk. Millennials suffering from recency bias moved away to the burbs. The work-life balance debate tipped dramatically towards sweatpants. Animal shelters emptied with a run on pets. Careers turned into jobs. But soon the scales will tip again. By this time in 2021 most people will be back in the workplace, at least on a sked. So, you’ll need a new car.

Real estate.
The spring market will be nuts, and start soon after the virus numbers crest and the lockdowns end. Mortgages are dirt cheap. Cash savings abound. House horniness is elevated because of the bug and its nesting impact. No matter how much risk is involved, people will continue to throw the bulk of their net worth into a single asset. The trends: more suburban price/sales gains in the first few months with further declines in deals/rents for urban condos. Then, mid-year, a sea change. Should be dramatic.

Meanwhile in 2021 there’s Trump to finally bury – that will be messy – and it’s a certainty Canadians will suffer a federal election. Then a budget you won’t like much (so crystallize some capital gains before March), and the Covid emergency will kind of slide into a climate emergency because politicians feed off chaos.

But compared to this year, pffft, piece of cake. Get the matches ready.

168 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 12.28.20 at 10:49 am

All mainstream sources:

1. What does it mean that the Old System must be torn down? We’re not even 1 year into this…and these predictive ‘opinion’ pieces appear daily. It begins with what children will be taught. No old system stuff, only the New System and the Global CV protocols.

https://www.varsity.co.uk/music/20344
Friday December 25 2020,
Is it time to cancel Beethoven?
James Mitchell reflects on Beethoven’s legacy in light of the composer’s 250th year

2. Gee what a timeline, given some harp on the UN plan for 2030 which is on their website for all to see.
10 years eh how’d he know. CV is being used to re-make the world. Prove it wrong.

“Covid-19 coronavirus will stay with us for next 10 years: @BioNTech CEO;
Sahin said that Pfizer vaccine can be adjusted for the new UK variant in about six weeks.”

3. Paging Alphonse…he nailed it:

“#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.
28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.”

–In the “News”:

France says third lockdown possible if Covid cases keep rising as vaccinations begin (dailymail.co.uk)

Southern California will likely face extended stay-at-home order after holiday surge in coronavirus cases Links (latimes.com)

Scientists call for UK lockdown after rapid spread of Covid-19 variants (theguardian.com)

Scotland to ‘remain in severe lockdown restrictions for some time(dailyrecord.co.uk)

#2 catnogood on 12.28.20 at 10:51 am

Hmm, to own bonds or bond funds right now?

Stick with the levels published here. Do not overweight bonds. Hold prefs. – Garth

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 10:52 am

“Chrystalize some Capital Gains before March”

+++++
Excuse my fiscal ignorance.

Are we not into a new tax year Jan 1st?
Or are you talking about maxing 2020 RRSP’s for the previous year’s tax break?

#4 C V on 12.28.20 at 10:53 am

“Your balanced portfolio made you good money”

=

“Central banks printed you good money”

This entire environment is a fantasy that most are forced to be part of. How long can governments dilute their currency values? 20% of printed money in the USA was printed in 2020. so numerical values go up, but real value is reduced greatly

In other words, you were not invested. Too bad. – Garth

#5 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 10:59 am

Bought a house about 470K 4 years ago – Ottawa suburb.
My neighbour just sold a similar house for 800K.

Happy for the “gain” but would prefer house prices retreat a bit – this is crazy! How will the next generation ever buy a house and start families???
Will house prices ever retreat for them or is there just too many foreign buyers?

Did you neighbour sell to a foreigner? Odds are, no. We’re doing this to ourselves. – Garth

#6 joblo on 12.28.20 at 11:11 am

Federal election, yes please.
Now Justin Trudeau can get the MAJORITY government he deserves!

#7 C V on 12.28.20 at 11:21 am

In other words, you were not invested. Too bad. – Garth

No Garth, I dont mean it that way. I am fully invested, and added some extra rainy day money in April. I just like to point out that the gains in the market are more synthetic maybe then ever before. I still think its the best option right now

#8 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 11:35 am

“So here we are in the final days.”

Easy on the last 3 words there Garth.

—————

The Blog also a good call to arms to all the paper calendar pyromaniacs in your flock My Liege.

Well written Garth. I bit optimistic I think though. Q3 will see the rebound with luck. People will not be self-confident until they know herd immunity is in place and that’s going to take a while even in Canada vaccinating in leaps and bounds.

Well, 2020 say goodbye to the D614G variant and in 2021 welcome in the the UK’s N501Y and South Africa’s N501Y-2 model, same mutation, did it on its own. With the UK variant making itself at home in the polar landscapes of Canada (drenched landscapes in BC).

It isn’t over yet Garth. Infections >> Injections.

I think you have it with the predictions save the timing. Q3 at best.

Still, I admire the optimism, enthusiasm (and humour).

#9 Brett in Calgary on 12.28.20 at 11:39 am

As Garth says: “this is not for everyone”.

If you want further diversification consider a small position in uranium in 2021.

TSE: HURA is a suitable ETF that has already benefited from some quiet US senate action to replenish stores of the radioactive isotope, and revisit nuclear power.

In February/March Billy Gates hits the media circuit pumping new generation nuclear. He will be recognized as the guy who was right about the pandemic, and probably about nuclear.

For a possibility of what could come, check out full history of NYSE: URA on zee Google.

#10 KNOW IT ALL on 12.28.20 at 11:41 am

2021……. MY CHIPS ARE ALL-IN!!

After all what do we got to lose?

The VIRUS mutates and kills off everybody then your dead and ALIENS who have been watching us come down to earth and take all your cash.

And all that worrying about investing for nothing.

#11 theoryAndPractice on 12.28.20 at 11:41 am

(so crystallize some capital gains before March) – GT.

Q1- If sell-for-capital-gains is done before the tax rules changes on March 2021, from 50% to 75%, will it escape even though it will be done on same calendar year ?

Q2- if yes, Would it not be better to sell all and buy it back on same day, if the gains are really high ?

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 11:42 am

@#6 JobBlows
“Now Justin Trudeau can get the MAJORITY government he deserves!”

+++++

No problem.
With a majority he….and only he ….can “own” the debt, the tax increases, the cuts to govt services, the failed businesses, the unemployment, the recession, etc etc etc……

I’m sure his stumbling, stuttering, politically correct lecturing will increase exponentially in the Ottawa “pressers” when the Lame Stream Media can no longer ignore the outraged masses and finally demand answers and accountability for his failed policies.

Chrystia better not be standing in front of any busses….

#13 Doug in overpriced London, PI 16 on 12.28.20 at 11:49 am

Anyone who tried to make good predictions a year ago was daft.
———————————————————–
I’m reminded of the saying people make plans and God laughs. Another saying was fighter Mike Tyson said: everyone has a plan until they’re punched.

Although we’ll be celebrating New Year’s Eve at home if we’re wise, no doubt we’ll gladly bid farewell to 2020. Next year? Should be interesting.

#14 Juggernaut on 12.28.20 at 11:52 am

“…. and you can’t even go sit in a Timmies.”

And for that, I’m eternally grateful to CV19!

#15 Ministry of Truth on 12.28.20 at 11:57 am

#2 TurnerNation on 12.26.20 at 2:57 pm

You are not the only one in this blog capable of understanding what is really going on. Your numbers may be way higher than you think.

#16 SOMETHINGS UP! on 12.28.20 at 11:57 am

TD US Index
TD International Index
TD Canadian Bond Index
TD Canadian Index

Who is going to lead the pack in 2021?

#17 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 12:02 pm

EU VAX POPULI PORN

1. I know in N. America your MSM told you that the

“Touching moment of unity” per Ursula von der Leyen

happened yesterday…well, not exactly.

NE Deutschland, Slovakia and Hungary bolted on Sunday with vaccinations (your basic middle finger to the EU and Ursula von der Leyen and her gaggle of unelected EU apparatchiks).

Nothing from The Netherlands other than this headline from De Telegraaf:

“Waarom is Nederland zo laat met vaccineren?”

Sour grapes Belgium (same boat as the Netherlands) today dissing the Deutchers for too high a dose vaxing (where they make Pfitzer & still no vaxing)

2. Who can roll out the oldest person in their country for vaxing competition:

-Germany 104 yrs old
-Spain 96 yrs old
-France 78 yrs old (though they could have won hands down with Lucile Randon, near 117 yrs old – for once no Gallic arrogance, restraint instead)
-Italia, knowing the above 3 would roll out their geriatrics en masse for PHOTO OP 1ST VAXING, instead 1st vaxed the cutest nurse going even with a mask on that they could find (and did)…Viva L’Italia! Honorable mention to Poland vaxing a nurse as well but sorry Polska our girl trumps yours:

https://i.imgur.com/y5jsAq3.png [Italia effort]
https://i.imgur.com/sUC5deM.png [Polska effort, though she looks smart and I liked the thumbs up]

————————-

Yup, just another Covid 19 Vax Populi “Touching moment of unity” day in Planet Europa.

#18 Apocalypse2020 on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm

Incorrect, the Apocalypse has already begun.

Sadly, only those who realize this and see all the signs will have a chance, however slim, of survival.

PREPARE

#19 Epiphany on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 11:42 am
@#6 JobBlows
“Now Justin Trudeau can get the MAJORITY government he deserves!”

+++++

No problem.
With a majority he….and only he ….can “own” the debt, the tax increases, the cuts to govt services, the failed businesses, the unemployment, the recession, etc etc etc……

——

Until I read your comments, I thought Boy Blunder Justin was the biggest dufus in Canada!

Good luck with those thoughts.

#20 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm

“Did you neighbour sell to a foreigner? Odds are, no. We’re doing this to ourselves.” – Garth

I know two friends who have – but okay, fair enough – probably not enough to really move the market.

My concern remains – how will the next gen be able to buy houses and have families? I have older kids and would honestly prefer house prices come down a bit for their sake and the sake of younger people in general.

Please tell me how prices ever become affordable again???

#21 Maybe I am just old fashioned ... on 12.28.20 at 12:12 pm

Hoping for good health, a few good friends, and a reasonable return on investments. That will keep me happy.

#22 Mehdi on 12.28.20 at 12:16 pm

Hi Garth;

Should we expect a real-estate price reduction at any point in 2021?

#23 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 12:22 pm

#4 C V

In other words, you were not invested. Too bad. – Garth

Probationem contradictio.

Good one My Liege.

#24 Gg on 12.28.20 at 12:41 pm

Then a budget you won’t like much (so crystallize some capital gains before March),

I will not let the tax tail control the investing dog
Slicing off 25% of your nest egg to never compound again has significant wealth consequences

China has 20% capital gains tax. ? Canada Will we be at 50%. Whose communist now?
And don’t talk to me about relative freedoms in the two countries…..The only real value of wealth is independence and Canada is making sure that it’s people never get there

#25 Doug in overpriced London, PI 16 on 12.28.20 at 12:43 pm

@Brett in Calgary, post #9:
Good choice! I have some URA-NY, as well as U-T and CCO-T. While a lot of attention has been given to gold lately, I think it’s wise to look at the other yellow metal, namely bright yellow uranium oxide. A lot of attention has been given to renewable energy, with companies like AQN-T and NPI-T over the last year. Nothing wrong with that, but at long last more people are realizing that nukes need to play a greater part in the energy mix if we ever want to get to much lower carbon emissions in the future. Those small modular reactors will require fuel.

#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm

#24 Gg on 12.28.20 at 12:41 pm

If you think boiling down an entire country to “taxes” has any merit you are delusional. Some of the best places on planet earth have the highest tax rates, and some of the worst the lowest (or none at all).

This is very much a debatable topic, with most evidence in opposition to what you wrote.

Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.

Inequality is a much bigger problem for the prosperity of all of us over “tax”.

Bank on that.

MF

#27 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm

#1 TurnerNation

True what you say at this juncture in time, save the “88” nonsense.

And will remain as such with infections >> injections as is at present.

But there is other news you neglect or are unaware of…

1. COVAX – like a vaccine clearing house. Diverts 20% of World Vaccine production to poorer countries (includes AstraZeneca, BioNtech/Pfizer and Moderna and others to come, of the maximum 5.3 billion doses of vaccine production in 2021 – early Dec. estimate).

2. AstraZeneca will soon get approval, €3/dose (at least 9 times cheaper than Pfizer or Moderna), requires only a refrigerator for storage and will be mass produced (not for profit vaccine), for example Italian plant at 450 million doses/year and India’s Serum Institute at 50-60 million doses/MONTH (half pledged to India, the other half to COVAX).

Yes, the World will come up short in 2021 for vaccines (5.3 billion est. max. production) but there is hope that by the end of 2023 there will be herd immunity.*

*Estimate based on today’s data, well known that AstraZeneca is seeking other country manufacturers (e.g., Australia has shown interest). Something CANADA SHOULD GET ON BOARD WITH as well what with all the money they are throwing around these days.

—————————

Fow now, you are correct Globally (The G20 probably done vaccinating by the end of 2021) but AstraZeneca and COVAX are the aces up the sleeve to come and if the need exists, there will probably be others that will step in.

#28 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 12.28.20 at 1:00 pm

“Meanwhile in 2021 there’s Trump to finally bury – that will be messy – and it’s a certainty Canadians will suffer a federal election.” — Garth

In the United States, President Donald J. Trump is still very much alive. The Lamestream Media has been trying to bury President Trump and The Truth with Fake News for the past four years, and will continue to try to bury them for the next four years. Messy, indeed.

As for Canadians, they will surely suffer the consequences of having voted for pure evil twice in a row, and probably a third time coming up, which would make it something like the unpardonable sin, or close enough to it. Expect them to be punished severely for their great folly, or at least their children to be punished for it, though now they ride around on dirt bikes bought with CERB money.

#29 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.28.20 at 1:02 pm

FOREIGNERS????

And since when are WE ALL not foreigners?

500 years ago there wasn’t a single soul who leaved on this continent who was of any other color but Native Indian and now we have the AUDACITY to call others foreigners.

If you want to see what a foreigner is take a look in the mirror!

#30 westcdn on 12.28.20 at 1:04 pm

My apologies to Flop. I misread your context about Doug Ford and fridges. Still I laugh although I got it wrong.

I will eventually make things right. Unfortunately, I find it easier to criticize than praise in the moment -give me time to think and you will be surprised.

#31 supercalifragilisticexpialidocious on 12.28.20 at 1:07 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 12.28.20 at 10:49 am

Get a room! A chat room, that is.
Better yet, your own blog so you can bask in the wonderment of your own online fame!

Besides, I’m starting to develop carpal tunnel from flicking thru all the lame comments that you litter this pathetic blog with.

#32 SHANE GALLANT on 12.28.20 at 1:10 pm

Why the sea change in realestate mid year?

#33 mark on 12.28.20 at 1:17 pm

Hmmm, stick more money in market all all time highs, ok.

So wait until it’s higher. Good plan. – Garth

#34 jal on 12.28.20 at 1:18 pm

Sales of house on wheel hit new high. Campground spots overflowing.

Some people did double time and increased their take home pay with overtime.

#35 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 1:21 pm

Garth, #1 TurnerNation

The only “kicker” that can put the best laid VAX POPULI plans asunder is this:

Vaccine Efficacy

I question if it is really 95% as advertised?

Even if you believe that number and the estimated 5.3 billion doses max. to be produced in 2021, that leaves:

132,500,000 people in 2021

for whom the vaccine will not have imparted immunity upon.

265,000,000 by 2022 and 379,500,000 by 2023. Hopefully if one vaccine does not work another different variety will. Still, more doses will be needed and why I think the World will be lucky to have herd immunity by the end of 2023.

For Canada that means:

1,879,500

will not have immunity even after getting vax’d. Like saying:

Sorry Calgary, Red Deer, Airdrie, Brooks and environs, no can do with the immunity.

Hopefully the different vaccine types will help see the back to that “kicker”…hopefully.

-FWIW

#36 Bill on 12.28.20 at 1:31 pm

Here it comes.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/27/tech/coronavirus-vaccine-passport-apps/index.html

#37 Bill on 12.28.20 at 1:33 pm

Your just cattle to the gov….to be milked and slaughtered.
If there’s no level of fear they could lose control.

#38 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 1:41 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR

Do not take me wrong I agree with you.

Having said that the Monte Verde, Chile culture came along before the Clovis (latter evidence linked as ancestors to modern Americas Native peoples), are thought to be (for now) the earliest humans in the Americas – up to perhaps 16,000 years ago.

No DNA on them yet that I was able to find (probable Clovis ancestors? which would make sense to me).

NatGeo on the topic:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2007/02/native-people-americans-clovis-news/

#39 RE_Investor on 12.28.20 at 1:51 pm

#22 Mehdi on 12.28.20 at 12:16 pm
Should we expect a real-estate price reduction at any point in 2021?

Real Estate prices in the GTA will always trend up in the long term. Look at any chart. Actually most financial investments trend up long term.

One item I feel is very important for Real Estate pricing is the neighbourhood zoning. You have to know this all the time when buying real estate. Review this: https://map.toronto.ca/maps/map.jsp?app=ZBL_CONSULT

Note that Single family detached houses in Toronto may follow Vancouver’s lead in allow lot splits. Toronto now allows secondary suites in all housing types, laneway housing, so detached lot splits are coming soon.

#40 Bill on 12.28.20 at 1:51 pm

Yes pensions are under assault.
Keep saving and investing. I ran with the assumption for 20 years that CPP would be near worthless due to a variety of reason, number 1 I think that it would be inflated away. So far so good.

#41 Lee on 12.28.20 at 1:56 pm

Always thought increases in capital gains inclusion rate was retroactive to the start of the year?

#42 Jimmy Zhao on 12.28.20 at 2:02 pm

So, Should I crystalize some of my capital gains right now before the year end?
Or do I still have a bit of time and can do it before March?

#43 mike from mtl on 12.28.20 at 2:04 pm

Pretty optimistic Garth.

At the rate we’re jabbing the old folks it’s going to take years. I’d be honestly surprised if the general population is even considered by End of 2021. By then the seasonality will be back to lockdowns and WFH.

Some predictions:

>RE will be far more expensive next year because the BoC has their back.
>Stonks will be more expensive next year because of the above.
>Restrictions in place now will continue until spring (Apr, May) 2021.
>If something goes wrong or again we think we can control a virus, the market will have a huge selloff late 2021.

I think the best tell we’re over this is if the Olympics actually occur in summer 2021 – and not some lame no-spectator “reduced” event. These events like others make money by ticket sales and the ancillary services like travel, lodging, etc. Otherwise there’s no point, just another incredibly expensive televised event.

#44 Inequity on 12.28.20 at 2:05 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR

Not sure if you got COVID brain but I was born here.

And I’m not complaining to the Italians and Germans that generations ago they invaded Britton and killed my people. …all the people involved are long dead. Move on…

#45 Sail Away on 12.28.20 at 2:14 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.28.20 at 1:02 pm

And since when are WE ALL not foreigners?

500 years ago there wasn’t a single soul who leaved on this continent who was of any other color but Native Indian and now we have the AUDACITY to call others foreigners.

—————

Sure. And 16,000 years ago, the giant sloths were calling the first Sapiens foreigners.

But then the first foreigners were wiped out by new interlopers. And so on. The brain boggles.

#46 Sail Away on 12.28.20 at 2:20 pm

#38 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 1:41 pm
#29 HUNGRY BEAR

Do not take me wrong I agree with you.

————-

Hungry Bear: Do not take me wrong. I do not agree with your pretentious bleatings.

#47 Howard on 12.28.20 at 2:37 pm

#6 joblo on 12.28.20 at 11:11 am
Federal election, yes please.
Now Justin Trudeau can get the MAJORITY government he deserves!

———————————-

Might as well at this point finish the job of destroying Canada. I’m cheering Justin on. Why should the Conservatives have to clean up his mess for him?

Hope it was worth it for the giggling ditzes who vote for a hairdo.

#48 Howard on 12.28.20 at 2:42 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.28.20 at 1:02 pm
FOREIGNERS????

And since when are WE ALL not foreigners?

500 years ago there wasn’t a single soul who leaved on this continent who was of any other color but Native Indian and now we have the AUDACITY to call others foreigners.

If you want to see what a foreigner is take a look in the mirror!

———————————–

A Canadian citizen living in Canada is by definition not a foreigner.

Glad to assist you with some basic kindergarten vocabulary.

#49 Bring back Bill on 12.28.20 at 2:49 pm

Say goodbye to 2020 and get ready for Government digital currencies to be introduced in 2021…
All this while we were sleeping…

Japan ,China, Bahamas and Cambodia are the first countries to adopt their respective currencies.

Europe will be next…

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/24/business/economy-business/japan-digital-currency/

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/html/digitaleuro.en.html

#50 Simon on 12.28.20 at 2:54 pm

S&P 500 dragged up by TSLA hype.
Canadian Lumber and some oil demand.
That is all.

#51 Fancy on 12.28.20 at 3:01 pm

I was scrolling on the internet the other day. I hit a site of Sarasota RE in Florida. Many articles on how Mick Jagger just bought a house there for 1.9 million. They even showed pictures. Gorgeous. Rock star gorgeous. Then I was looking at Victoria RE. In Langford (an area full of massive treeless subdivisions, Box Box Stores and strip malls. People used to joke that you would hear during banjos when you entered Langford. A bit redneck but getting better. New homes (nice houses, cookie cutter generic) are for sale in a new soulless subdivision they are planning. Tiny lots. These for $1 million. I think there is something wrong with this picture.

#52 Robert on 12.28.20 at 3:04 pm

Thanks for writing these articles day after day much appreciated

#53 UCC on 12.28.20 at 3:06 pm

#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm
Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.

Inequality is a much bigger problem for the prosperity of all of us over “tax”.

Bank on that.

MF
_________________________

What are you smoking? Can I have some? Taxes of all sorts are up. Canada is one of the most balance nations in the world. What we need to do is lower taxes and get this nation working. Taxes de-incentivizes work and incentives laziness.

#54 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 3:07 pm

#29 Hungry Bear…

Definition – “foreigner” – a person not “native” to or naturalized in the country or jurisdiction under consideration

Def “native” – a person born in a specified place or associated with a place by birth

By the definition, anyone born here is not a foreigner. My wife was a foreigner when she first came here, but now she has been naturalized, so she no longer is. It has NOTHING to do with race or colour of your skin and is a defining word and not meant as derogatory.

Are you saying anybody not of the race of “first nations” is a foreigner – even if they’re born here? For generations?

It’s believed that “first nations” people migrated here over the Bering land bridge thousands of years ago – waves of people over time. So are you saying the first group would not be “foreigners” because before them there were no people in the Americas – even though that contradicts the definition? Then let’s say another group came over the land bridge a couple years later – are they foreigners in your thinking or not – because they belong to the “first nations” race but they were not the first people here? Are their descendants forever foreigners?

Your definition is confusing…please elaborate.

#55 Q&A on 12.28.20 at 3:18 pm

Garth, I think that we assume too much that economy will get back to the precovid world and the jobs will come back and consumers will be happy spending again. Unfortunately, we might be going the way farming changed in North America. In 1935 there were 7mm farms. Now 2mm and only 1.3% population work on the farms. I’m afraid retail, car manufacturing (switch away from ICE) and so on is going to the same path but an accelerated rate. A lot of people will be negatively surprised in the next year, two.

#56 MF on 12.28.20 at 3:23 pm

2 UCC on 12.28.20 at 3:06 pm

I have never smoked anything in my life.

Do you have any proof to back up your statements? I’ve posted evidence of my assertion numerous times on here in the past and don’t care to look it up.

The fact is most “prosperous” nations on planet earth are usually the ones with the highest taxes. The countries with lower to no taxes are usually: a) dictatorships b) war zones or c) corrupt banana republic tax shelters in the carribbean.

Canada is middle of the road for taxes. And lower for the extreme high end. We just like to complain.

Propaganda comes in many forms, left and right. Be critical of it all.

MF

#57 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.28.20 at 3:26 pm

Went for the JUGULAR!

Mission accomplished.

#58 Dolce Vita on 12.28.20 at 3:27 pm

#46 Sail Away

There you are. Have not seen you Comment for awhile then again wee hours in the AM here your early evening so may have missed late posts by you.

Anyway take care of yourself and lay low from N501Y. News here in the EU as of late is that it is insidious vs. what you have now in Canada. Apparently its S. African sibling, though supposedly the exact same mutation achieved all by its lonesome, is even more contagious and some say more deaths.

Sent a Tweet to Hajdu, Tam and Trudeau today to keep an eye on the S. African mutant, better, close down travel to/from there (did the same for the UK variant, day before they stopped travel to there). Spot when the UK mutant started to take off there:

https://i.imgur.com/xAGIFzv.png

Oddly Cdn MSM doing a good job reporting it but scarier is the Cdn virologists saying it’s just a 1% change in the spike protein. Ya, “just”.

Some concern as it is here in Italia as usual, in the cross hairs though cases dropping nicely.

https://i.imgur.com/HEsMcH5.png

[probably the pre-mutant curve, Italia not like horseshoes up its derrière Canada when it comes to Covid]

Yup, another Covid-19 day on Planet Earth what can I tell you Sail Away.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 3:28 pm

@#19 Enigmatic Elevator Emanations are MY Epiphany

“Until I read your comments, I thought Boy Blunder Justin was the biggest dufus in Canada!”

+++++

Fan mail, like flatulence, is so fleeting

#60 #5 on 12.28.20 at 3:31 pm

There’s no end of idiots bidding 150-200k over the asking on a 500k house in the outer suburbs – truefacts

#61 Stan Brooks on 12.28.20 at 3:32 pm

BANNED

#62 Faron on 12.28.20 at 3:33 pm

I found this really helpful in thinking about equities, money printing, inflation and volatility. Long and very dense.

Volatility at World’s End

Written in 2012 a few years out of the GFC when money printing and fears of inflation were rampant as they are now.

If equities keep ramping and volatility stays high, it may mean inflation is immanent (or under way in real terms that we experience). Because of this, the returns you will need to obtain from your portfolio will have to be massive. Like YTD Russel2000 massive in order to outpace real inflation. To keep up, you will have to chase equities higher which will only keep the equity inflation growing as just one edge of the inflationary leap.

With housing prices growing as fast as they are, this issue may already be with us. If housing represents as much as 30% of one’s expenses and it grows at an annual rate of 15% (despite CPI inflation <2%) then experienced inflation is waaaaaay above any 2% target. Thus, to be prepared for retirement in a country where that rate of housing price growth continues, you will need to pull down much greater returns than a balanced port can deliver. If there's any central bank or federal government intervention, it will have to address experienced inflation more accurately.

#63 Brett in Calgary on 12.28.20 at 3:34 pm

Agreed Doug – enjoy 2021!

#25 Doug in overpriced London, PI 16 on 12.28.20 at 12:43 pm
@Brett in Calgary, post #9:

#64 unbalanced on 12.28.20 at 3:38 pm

To all the bloggers out there. Mawer balanced fund or Hbal-etf? Thanks in advance

#65 SoggyShorts on 12.28.20 at 3:38 pm

#49 Simon on 12.28.20 at 2:54 pm
S&P 500 dragged up by TSLA hype.
Canadian Lumber and some oil demand.
That is all.

***************
That’s the beauty of the S&P 500.
Those companies are so powerful and global that they will always (as a group) win.

Whether it’s by having a monopoly, lobbying the crap out of congress, negotiating zero tax havens, or whatever those guys are just winners.
If by chance one happens to fall it simply gets replaced by another.
66% S&P500 (now 70%)
13% TSX60
20% IEF (now 17%)

#66 Faron on 12.28.20 at 3:39 pm

#50 Fancy on 12.28.20 at 3:01 pm

…In Langford (an area full of massive treeless subdivisions, Box Box Stores and strip malls. People used to joke that you would hear during banjos when you entered Langford…

A friend of mine used to say that every time you wash out and reuse a zip-lock bag in Victoria, someone in Langford starts a tire fire.

#67 Joe on 12.28.20 at 3:39 pm

Hope for the best. But expect the worst.

#68 SoggyShorts on 12.28.20 at 3:40 pm

#20 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm
My concern remains – how will the next gen be able to buy houses and have families?
*********************
Who told you that homeownership is a requirement for having a family?

#69 Flop... on 12.28.20 at 3:48 pm

As the year winds down the condo correction in Vancouver appears to be picking up steam.

Condos in all price brackets at the moment are flashing Amber.

Detached in the 1.2 to 2.2 range was going fairly good until the seasonal slump.

Roughly only 15 detached sales in Vancouver proper this December.

Still green light on this price bracket in detached until the summer, at least.

Pent up demand could see the bifurcation in the market grow larger.

Detached above 2.2ish, I would say, is still flashing Amber and has been since the peak in summer 2016.

It actually rose beyond this number in 2017, but that was just a smart money property dump of people on the Westside that were acknowledging that the rules of the game had been altered significantly.

Summer of 2016 was the last time you could by anything with a blindfold, hold onto it for a year and reliably make some sort of profit with no value-added projects.

Anyway, the momentum swing between the different segments of the market is nothing new.

From 2000 to 2015 the preferred speculation vehicle was detached, some of the following years you could probably call a draw but this is how I recall it.

2015 Detached

2016 Detached

2017 Attached ( despite high-end property dump warping the detached frankenumbers.)

2018 Attached

2019 Attached

2020 Detached

We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the late Spring/early summer after the seasonal demand explodes and see if reality pours water on the fire, or if the market gets its gas can and water can mixed up…

M46BC

#70 Linda on 12.28.20 at 3:51 pm

Love the dog photos. Today’s pup is too adorable!

Was looking up vaccination rollouts. Always presuming something else doesn’t disrupt things, looks like the earliest the general populace will be able to line up for jabs is September, at least in our neck of the woods. Do not see the travel industry recovering until such time as the herd is immunized. So don’t toss the mask on the bonfire just yet!

On the plus side, do see markets doing well as vaccines continue to be administered & the new POTUS takes the reins. Just as well as the local economy is just a tad battered at present. Elections will further delay recovery to boot.

#71 Tron Light on 12.28.20 at 4:01 pm

I personally believe markets are detached from reality although that hasn’t stopped me from investing. There was a time when companies went public to raise capital to invest in R&D or to build a new factory, etc. In other words, the were producing consumer goods.

I don’t believe that to be the case today. I believe IPOs are done to make the owners rich. Companies (if you can call them that) like Facebook, Twitter, Uber, et al bring no productive value to the equation. They don’t produce anything. At least Tesla produces cars however unaffordable they are to the average consumer.

Add to that the injections of cash from the central banks and you have markets that are really make believe.

#72 First time poster on 12.28.20 at 4:03 pm

Garth – agree with all predictions except real estate. Yes, spring will be nuts starting in February with more price increases but no dramatic change mid year. Prices will plateau, I suspect prices will come down a little in 2022 in relation to mortgage rate increases. Now if I am selling a house to buy a slightly bigger one (outgrew this one 5 years ago) is it better to sell high and buy high or wait to sell low and buy low (likely with a higher rate).

#73 Prince Polo on 12.28.20 at 4:06 pm

I’m not sure if I can handle a Mr. Socks majority on top of a nitro-fueled real estate market. How does PM Trudeau propose to buy the votes of the fiscally prudent that frequent this blog?

At least it’s not all bad – I hear that there’ll be cake in 2021. My only request: please let the cake be delicious!!

#74 Bezengy on 12.28.20 at 4:14 pm

No blog yesterday? I had to check the latest Apocalypse2020 post just in case I missed something. Kids were texting me demanding answers with speculation running wild. Didn’t know what to them. “Ruff” day for sure.

#75 one is not the same as the other on 12.28.20 at 4:15 pm

In other words, you were not invested. Too bad. – Garth
_____________________________________________

criticizing central banks and governments for printing and shelling out trillions is one thing… it’s a separate discussion than being invested.

i personally had my best year ever. balanced and diversified is ok for most people who have no idea what they are doing. but if you have a brain, you can always make outsized gains when the market offers them.

the MMT experiment is going full blast when Biden gets in office. even more craziness if the Dems with the two Senate seats in Jan. lets see if the bond market finally pukes and puts a stop to all of this mess.

#76 Paul on 12.28.20 at 4:46 pm

#67 SoggyShorts on 12.28.20 at 3:40 pm
#20 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm
My concern remains – how will the next gen be able to buy houses and have families?
*********************
Who told you that homeownership is a requirement for having a family?
————————————————————————————————
Not a requirement but certainly preferable.

#77 Banker box Bob on 12.28.20 at 4:50 pm

#71 First time poster on 12.28.20 at 4:03 pm

Garth – agree with all predictions except real estate. Yes, spring will be nuts starting in February with more price increases but no dramatic change mid year. Prices will plateau, I suspect prices will come down a little in 2022 in relation to mortgage rate increases. Now if I am selling a house to buy a slightly bigger one (outgrew this one 5 years ago) is it better to sell high and buy high or wait to sell low and buy low (likely with a higher rate)

———-

Since you didn’t ask me, I will answer…because that’s what I do.
Of course it is better to sell low and buy low in your case. Get your kid to do the math for you… All the while smug in your knowledge that interests rates ain’t going anywhere far soon. And you can take that to the bank!

#78 Uncle Buck on 12.28.20 at 4:57 pm

#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm
#24 Gg on 12.28.20 at 12:41 pm

If you think boiling down an entire country to “taxes” has any merit you are delusional. Some of the best places on planet earth have the highest tax rates, and some of the worst the lowest (or none at all).

This is very much a debatable topic, with most evidence in opposition to what you wrote.

Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.

Inequality is a much bigger problem for the prosperity of all of us over “tax”.

Bank on that.

MF
———-

Our resident Defender of the Status Quo has spoken. Please cease any and all differing opinions and/or points of view immediately.

#79 Bill on 12.28.20 at 4:59 pm

Garth actually a decent forcast.
Personally I wouldn’t bet on a meltdown on anything.
I would never sell any of my RE here or on the island. Its a go to for old guys and contractors follow so lots of new younger families here.
Helping my kid buy a house in Powell River. New baby on the way and thats 1 more Canuklehead! yaaaa…shit I’m a Grampa…
Probably going to get going on developing another storage facility on my commercial prop. I see good things for here.
I’m sitting on too much cash.

Garth Did you get a permit for that fire? Last time I got one going like that the Regional Dist. fire dept showed. Goof balls.

#80 jess on 12.28.20 at 5:01 pm

Here’s what is changing after the FinCEN Files shook the world of banking

….long accustomed to keeping their financial dealings secret, lashed out at journalists. Before and after publishing the FinCEN Files, reporters i shouted at, intimidated, and threatened with lawsuits. In Turkey, a court blocked the publication of multiple FinCEN Files stories.

After ICIJ and BuzzFeed News published a joint investigation, officials across the globe began to take action to thwart criminals and illicit financial activity.
By Will Fitzgibbon
Dec 17, 2020
In the weeks after BuzzFeed News, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, and 108 newsrooms around the world began publishing stories based on a cache of secret records, U.K. lawmakers launched a formal inquiry into Britain’s oversight of banks, members of the European Parliament advocated for a stronger response across the continent, and investigations were opened in countries ranging from Thailand to Liberia.

Significantly, the FinCEN Files provided a final push in Washington, D.C., for passage of a momentous new law taking aim at one of the most effective money laundering tools cited in the stories: anonymous shell companies. The legislation, passed last week with overwhelming bipartisan support, requires many of these secretive American companies to disclose who owns them and who profits from them.
….tucked into the annual defense spending bill, also address many of the other systemic problems identified in the FinCEN Files, which exposed the ineffectiveness of government oversight and the myriad ways that banks fail to stanch the flow of dirty money.

Among those reforms: The Justice Department would have to file yearly reports justifying its use of deferred prosecution agreements —The U.S. Treasury Department would also seek new technologies to better identify criminal money flows and to increase communication between the private sector and federal agencies. And those who blow the whistle on misconduct would get new protections.

The Corporate Transparency Act marks the most substantial revision to anti–money laundering laws since the Patriot Act in 2001.

https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/heres-what-is-changing-after-the-fincen-files-shook-the-world-of-banking/

#81 UCC on 12.28.20 at 5:04 pm

#55 MF on 12.28.20 at 3:23 pm
I have never smoked anything in my life.

Do you have any proof to back up your statements? I’ve posted evidence of my assertion numerous times on here in the past and don’t care to look it up.

The fact is most “prosperous” nations on planet earth are usually the ones with the highest taxes. The countries with lower to no taxes are usually: a) dictatorships b) war zones or c) corrupt banana republic tax shelters in the carribbean.

Canada is middle of the road for taxes. And lower for the extreme high end. We just like to complain.

Propaganda comes in many forms, left and right. Be critical of it all.

MF

____________

Your smoking something. And I call bull.

Show me where taxes are going down…Here you can see the general trend is up, up, and away.

https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REVCAN

It’s not going to change anytime soon. And we get crap for our tax dollar.

#82 MF on 12.28.20 at 5:15 pm

Uncle Buck on 12.28.20 at 4:57 pm

-Looks like you have no argument.

MF

#83 neo on 12.28.20 at 5:21 pm

DELETED

#84 Camille on 12.28.20 at 5:25 pm

Thank you Garth for your predictions. I certainly agree it is not a time to go overweight bonds.
I’m asking – what of default risk? A typical Canadian corporate bond etf can hold 50-60% BBB rated bonds. (such as FTSE Canada Mid Term Corporate Bond Index). Much has been written of BBB risk, that it may actually be below investment grade. High quality bond etfs with A or better exist (over 70% financial).

#85 Penny Henny on 12.28.20 at 5:27 pm

#24 Gg on 12.28.20 at 12:41 pm
Then a budget you won’t like much (so crystallize some capital gains before March),

I will not let the tax tail control the investing dog
Slicing off 25% of your nest egg to never compound again has significant wealth consequences
////////////////

Why couldn’t you sell some of your position, book the capital gain and then repurchase the same securities?

#86 Meh on 12.28.20 at 5:28 pm

Things will be the same next year. We will still have constant fear mongering from the media and governments, we will still be wearing masks, lots of small businesses will be gone, we will still be working from home. We have invited the nanny-police state into our lives.

#87 Plaxtothemax on 12.28.20 at 5:32 pm

Do you think any changes to capital gains inclusion rate would be retroactive to beginning of 2021?

#88 Howard on 12.28.20 at 5:46 pm

#67 SoggyShorts on 12.28.20 at 3:40 pm
#20 truefacts on 12.28.20 at 12:06 pm
My concern remains – how will the next gen be able to buy houses and have families?
*********************
Who told you that homeownership is a requirement for having a family?

—————————————-

Unless Canada turns into Austria and provides liveable, sufficiently spacious long-term family-oriented rental units within reasonable commuting distance of major cities (less relevant now with the long-term WFH trends, but still important), it kind of is a requirement.

#89 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 5:52 pm

What you will see is what is already happening.. These young folks will develop countless Apps that go around starving the Big Boys. We already see it with Apps allowing multiple trades with no fees; cannot blame them, they are pissed and I am an old guy!

That is only the start; whoa are we in for a big change in the next couple of years (good bye advisors and middle men or people or whatever one calls them); my Wiser told me so!! Good-luck!!

#90 Jimmy2fingerx on 12.28.20 at 5:57 pm

WHO chief scientist says no evidence vax prevents transmission, so y’all gotta keep yr mask on and social distance.

But the virus it mutates. Don’t worry we have a test, but it’s only 50% correct, and 50% don’t show symptoms. Don’t worry we’ll have a vax for that. The stupid it burns, the peak of science,

#91 willworkforpickles on 12.28.20 at 5:58 pm

Production will not return to normal levels in 2021 or anytime soon after.
Unemployment is rising and as it does it leads to yet further accelerating job losses. As the downward spiral/domino effect from the fallout begins, all the compounding problems systemic of it will snowball.
Fewer and fewer surviving businesses as more close up for good add to the rising numbers of unemployed and bankrupt.
A precipitous decline in tax revenue of all forms going into the coffers of municipal/local, provincial/state and federal governments can be expected.
With increasing numbers of people thrown out of work coupled with the new wave of WFH’ers, revenue from many sources at street level aside from tax revenue (fees tolls meters services fines etc. etc..) are in steep decline and will lead to a real municipal meltdown this time around…Expect reduced to discontinued services into 2021… and in times of real existing high tension and hair trigger revolt in our cities.
The new government and more stimulus won’t fix it and the pandemic will remain a curse on humanity for longer than many expect.
Larger than ever portions of society are becoming poorer than ever. Who can believe without their rose colored glasses on that a reversal is imminent.

#92 cuke and tomato picker on 12.28.20 at 6:01 pm

Number 50 Fancy an average home in the Victoria region goes for 1.1 mil. A 1550 sq.ft. home listed at $799,000.00
sold for $815,000.00. It took just about one 45 minute
look by the first couple to decide. Sold in first day.
Neighbours rolled their eyes.

#93 Bill on 12.28.20 at 6:07 pm

#71 First time poster on 12.28.20 at 4:03 pm
————————————————-
Best to NOT ever be out of the unpredictable RE market.
Unless you have a few houses and want to blow one out to pay down another mortgage.
Timing that sort of thing is futile..int rates as well.
They been talking higher rates for a while and look what covid did. I know a couple people sold 4 years ago or so because the market looked hot. They never got back in now cant afford too. There wasn’t even anything to rent so they are hold up in an RV..
Location matters…ie in Saskatoon. my fam says things are titters and here its on fire….for years.
Good luck

#94 MF on 12.28.20 at 6:08 pm

80 UCC on 12.28.20 at 5:04 pm

-I don’t think you read the link?

Here’s a report, also from the OECD, that looks at the “tax wedges” of the OECD. Basically the difference between the cost to the employer of an employee and the employee’s takehome pay (after taxation).

https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/taxing-wages-brochure.pdf

Look at the chart comparison on page 2. You can see a few things. First off,

-Canada at 30 is actually below the average of 36. The US is at 29. Very close to us.
-The highest tax wedges are in Europe.
-The lowest are in Chile, New Zealand and Mexico.

In a nutshell, higher taxes do not mean disaster. Low taxes do not mean utopia. But the correlation is not perfect and this issue is very much still a matter of debate. Complaining about taxes in Canada is usually political hyperbole.

Like i said earlier. Ignore the propaganda from the left and from the right. Worry about inequality instead.

Anyhow, to the person who posted the link “The Pitchforks Are Coming” by Nick Hanouer a few days ago. Thank you. Good read.

Repost for anyone who missed it:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

Alright I am done. Have a good night all.

MF

#95 devore on 12.28.20 at 6:09 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR

Nobody is handing out virtue signalling awards here.

#96 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 6:26 pm

To add to my previous post; this is the kind of crap that just pisses people off! Even Pierre Poilievre predicted this would happen in April: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/dividends-still-went-out-even-after-soldiers-marched-in-to-long-term-care-homes

#97 Nonplused on 12.28.20 at 6:26 pm

Not much to comment on there so I’ll talk more about “wealth redistribution” because I had a new thought today.

I’ve talked at length about the problems of how to turn “wealth”, which is often nothing but notional stock market prices supposedly backed up by profitable corporations, into cash the government can distribute, so I’ll leave that alone and talk about the recipient of this redistributed wealth.

Who are they? “The poor” obviously but who is that? The homeless obviously but what about students? Minimum wages workers? What is the cut-off?

And how much money are we talking about? Will it be a couple hundred a month like the child bonus or a UBI of $2,000 a month for all adults? These are difficult questions and I don’t think science can be applied to them. The decisions will be political.

But let’s assume it a full on UBI of $2,000 per month. What are these previously poor people going to spend the money on? Rent and food obviously, but how are they paying for those things now? And what happens when a minimum wage worker making say $15/hour, so say $30,000/year is suddenly cashing $54,000 a year? Me things spending goes up dramatically.

So even if we assume the wealthy have the money to fund a UBI (which they don’t), we would suddenly have a huge increase in the amount of money chasing our current supply of goods and services. New TV’s all around. And every other type of gadget you can imagine from cell phones to cars. Restaurants and bars would never want for customers again.

To me this sudden increase in the amount of money available to consumers would have to be highly inflationary. Food is going to go up. Rents are going to go up. Everything is going to go up. Shortages will ensue as the stores get cleaned out of Play Stations.

Assuming just 15 million Canadians are eligible for UBI and the number is $2,000 a month, that is $360 billion dollars being pumped into the economy every single year. Some of that money may find its’ way into the stock market so it would represent a real transfer of “wealth” from the rich to the poor, but I’m betting most of it will be spent. If we look at how the average person earning $54,000/year uses their RRSP’s I think using 5% as a ballpark as to how much gets reinvested is probably close.

So there are real problems with “wealth redistribution” on both sides of the equation even if we figure the rich are owed a hair cut because they are evil.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 6:30 pm

@#93 MF
“In a nutshell, higher taxes do not mean disaster. Low taxes do not mean utopia. But the correlation is not perfect and this issue is very much still a matter of debate. Complaining about taxes in Canada is usually political hyperbole.”

++++

Most people wouldnt complain about paying higher taxes….
IF THE MONEY WAS WELL SPENT.

Vancouver.
After DECADES of construction, housing sales, higher and higher propery values (and taxes)….hits the fiscal wall after 3 months of Covid shutdowns?
WTF?
BC. Ditto.
Canada. Ditto. ( with the added bonus they just print more money and push the problem onto future politicians and tax payers)
No Parliament.
No Budget( for almost two years now).
No Debate.
Just Justin’s “pressers” on the Cottage “lawn” with hand picked “media” nodding their heads compliantly in agreement to every inane utterance stuttered forth during his smug, politically correct, nonsensical speeches….

CRIMINAL.

#99 Nonplused on 12.28.20 at 6:39 pm

#29 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.28.20 at 1:02 pm
FOREIGNERS????

And since when are WE ALL not foreigners?

500 years ago there wasn’t a single soul who leaved on this continent who was of any other color but Native Indian and now we have the AUDACITY to call others foreigners.

If you want to see what a foreigner is take a look in the mirror!

————————–

Hey look the British stole the land fair and square. But if you want to look at what “wealth redistribution” really looks like I guess you could ask those indigenous people of 500 years ago. For them the land was their wealth. The idea that European farming techniques made the land a lot more productive is poor solace to them. Although their descendants did get quads out of the deal.

#100 Long-Time Lurker on 12.28.20 at 6:39 pm

>The Christmas truce is over. Who’s the conspiracy nut now: Build Back Better/The Great Reset: Japan edition.

Japan adopts green growth plan to go carbon free by 2050
BY MARI YAMAGUCHI, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Posted Dec 25, 2020 1:12 am PST Last Updated Dec 25, 2020 at 1:18 am PST

TOKYO — Japan aims to eliminate gasoline-powered vehicles in about 15 years, the government said Friday in a plan to achieve Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s ambitious pledge to go carbon free by 2050 and generate nearly $2 trillion growth in green business and investment.

The “green growth strategy” urges utilities to bolster renewables and hydrogen while calling for auto industries to go carbon free by the mid-2030s.

Suga, in a policy speech in October, pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions in 30 years. As the world faces an environmental challenge, green investment is an opportunity for growth not a burden, he said….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/25/japan-adopts-green-growth-plan-to-go-carbon-free-by-2050/

#101 Nonplused on 12.28.20 at 6:45 pm

#63 unbalanced on 12.28.20 at 3:38 pm

“To all the bloggers out there. Mawer balanced fund or Hbal-etf? Thanks in advance”

That is the sort of question that should be directed towards your financial advisor. You get what you pay for here.

#102 AntMan on 12.28.20 at 6:50 pm

#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm

Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.

——————————————————–

According to OECD data income inequality, the poverty rate and the poverty gap have all fallen in Canada since 1976 https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm. I’m not sure where the myth of growing inequality springs from but I have never seen any credible data to support it.

#103 Hilroy on 12.28.20 at 7:07 pm

Will Super Bowl house parties cause a spike in cases – late Feb/early Mar?

#104 Dog Breath on 12.28.20 at 7:11 pm

“…it’s a certainty Canadians will suffer a federal election.”
—————————————————-
Trudeau and his henchmen have watched in interest how easy it was for the Democrats south of the border to rig the election with the mail in ballots and the Dominion voting machines. As soon as they have the infrastructure in place we will definitely have an election. Don’t bother to vote though, the election will already be decided just like in the U.S.!!

#105 Flop... on 12.28.20 at 7:15 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 6:30 pm
@#93 MF
“In a nutshell, higher taxes do not mean disaster. Low taxes do not mean utopia. But the correlation is not perfect and this issue is very much still a matter of debate. Complaining about taxes in Canada is usually political hyperbole.”

++++

Most people wouldnt complain about paying higher taxes….
IF THE MONEY WAS WELL SPENT.

Vancouver.
After DECADES of construction, housing sales, higher and higher propery values (and taxes)….hits the fiscal wall after 3 months of Covid shutdowns?
WTF?
BC. Ditto.
Canada. Ditto. ( with the added bonus they just print more money and push the problem onto future politicians and tax payers)
No Parliament.
No Budget( for almost two years now).
No Debate.
Just Justin’s “pressers” on the Cottage “lawn” with hand picked “media” nodding their heads compliantly in agreement to every inane utterance stuttered forth during his smug, politically correct, nonsensical speeches….

CRIMINAL.

////////////////////////

I thought MF was doing pretty well against the other bantamweight blog boxers.

Then he stepped up in class to take on a more experienced 5 foot 9 light-heavyweight who does his training in elevators.

Will he get up…

M46BC

#106 Bill on 12.28.20 at 7:31 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz
———————————-
Lets talk about the WASITED tax money over the years is in the zillions.
They figure they pissed away and extra 100bil on covid that was not necessary.
If this idiot ran a business it wouldn’t be for long.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 7:40 pm

@#99 Lurker
“Japan aims to eliminate gasoline-powered vehicles in about 15 years, the government said Friday….”

++++

Yep.
I’m thinking the resale value of fuel power vehicles will start to wane after 2025 -30…. especially now that our fearless leader has gone back on his tax promise to not raise the Carbon tax above $55/tonne…… $170/tonne rolls off the fiscal tongue so much easier doesnt it?

By 2040 gas stations will be a novelty….much like charging stations today.
I plan on driving my debt free Truck for at least another 10 years…. and when I do flog it ( or use it as a work vehicle around the property) …..hopefully the 100 % electric, self driving vehicles will be ubiquitous……. and cheap

#108 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 8:06 pm

#96 Nonplused

By no means are the rich (well mostly) evil! They are using every trick in the book to become wealthy including paying minimal tax; using every loophole there is available but employing millions which pay tax. With the exception of newly appointment CEO’s that cut thousands of jobs and receive a huge bonus for it??????? Or a company/government that sends in tax paying brave military personal to deal with what they could not and at the same time time pay out dividends for there failures!! It makes no sense…

My point, whether rich or poor the system is designed to take advantage of everything that there is out there!

There must be a better way???

#109 Faron on 12.28.20 at 8:07 pm

Although I love driving enough to look forward to the 7hr slog home when the border was open, I look forward to the day when I can hop in a self driving car at 10PM and wake up in the Rockies, backpack for a couple a days and return home in time for work. Get the driving done in off hours, save daylight for adventure.

#110 kommykim on 12.28.20 at 8:15 pm

RE: #16 SOMETHINGS UP! on 12.28.20 at 11:57 am
TD US Index
TD International Index
TD Canadian Bond Index
TD Canadian Index
Who is going to lead the pack in 2021?

=======================================

Doesn’t matter. Just rebalance as needed to keep the percentages of each within bounds.

#111 Comrade on 12.28.20 at 8:27 pm

I am not sure that there will be any correction in real estate in near future. I think at this point it became such an important part of overall welfare that government will use all the tools in their tool box to keep it inflated.

What does make you think that it will correct after spring market, when all things you listed pandemic, record unemployment, etc. Didn’t make a dent in it? It actually did quite the opposite. I feel that between low interests rates that are here to stay for at least couple of years,inheritance money, and bank of mom and dad. The things will remain on the same trajectory for foreseeable future.

#112 kommykim on 12.28.20 at 8:34 pm

#24 Gg on 12.28.20 at 12:41 pm
China has 20% capital gains tax. ? Canada Will we be at 50%. Whose communist now?

========================================

Don’t confuse the “capital gains inclusion rate” (50% in Canada) with the actual tax you’ll pay on your capital gains.
ie: if your marginal tax rate was 30% and you made $1000 in capital gains, you’d be paying 30% tax on $500 (50% of $1000). Your taxes owing would be $150 and NOT $500…
So this makes the rate actually 15% for a Canadian in that tax bracket where as the Chinese don’t take your marginal tax rate into account and it’s a flat 20% for passive income.

#113 Emily Jain on 12.28.20 at 8:36 pm

DELETED

#114 Capt. Serious on 12.28.20 at 8:40 pm

To people pointing out that the markets are at all time highs and therefore it is not a good time to put money into the market: Markets regularly make all time highs and never revisit those levels ever again. The only way that stops is if the economy goes into a depression it never recovers from.

Quite honestly all the Mills are wishing for the wrong thing. In their accumulation years they should wish for low and cheap equity prices. You want to acquire shares at low prices. If one gets good returns when young when the portfolio is 50k and poor returns when it is 500k, one ends up needing a very high savings rate later to hit “the number”.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 8:43 pm

@#105 Bill
“They figure they pissed away and extra 100bil on covid that was not necessary.”
++++

Yep.
When almost 50% of the CERB money is sitting in banks and the feds gave $40,000 to businesses “affected” by Covid ( errrr, ALL businesses?) with the proviso that if the original$40k “loan” was paid back in two years….you get to keep 10k !
Whooooo Hoooooo!
Gets better.
The feds then offer ANOTHER $20k “loan” to the same businesses this fall.
The bonus?
They only have to pay back the original, agreed upon 30K within two years……. out of 60k given to them….
Does ANYONE that can add not see the problem?

We will still see thousands of busnesses fail and the govt has already blown the budget to the tune of……. $400 BILLION dollars IN ONE YEAR!
What’s facing us in 2021?
More infections?
More lockdowns?
And a govt that has no sane, rational, fiscally prudent, (adult?) idea how to prepare us for the future…..

Chrystia Freeland in her ridiculous, “Update” ( NOT a budget !) spews more pc drivel…..”its a feminist budget”….. as if that explains the rational for the looming economic disaster…..we’re expected to nod in compliant agreement?
WTF?
Modern Monetary Theory = Spend obscene amounts of taxpayer obligations (not money) you dont have OR intend to repay…. let someone else deal with it after they retire.

A Liberal majority.
God help us all.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 8:48 pm

@#104 Floppie
” light-heavyweight”

++++
Well after 3 days of nonstop eating , drinking and slothful couch surfing………. Lightbeer Heavyweight would be more appropriate…. :)

#117 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 12.28.20 at 9:17 pm

Don’t even THINK of coming up north for New Year’s, you inbred, degenerate southern hillbillies!

We don’t need the strain on our healthcare resources.

Got it?

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#118 Bill on 12.28.20 at 9:39 pm

Ya Crowdy you couldn’t make this crap up if ya tried….
I’m not sure what the hell will be in a few years…
Yes a real problem that repeats. Get in power for a term
or 2 line your pockets with sweet deals and massive pension. Leave a heap of crap behind for next guy/ Gail.
Most of it hidden….until its not then new guy blames last guy. Hell of a system.

#119 Grandma Sue on 12.28.20 at 9:51 pm

I fear trump has thrown in his hat to the deep state. Go get your vaccine sheeple. I guarantee 2020 will look like a cake walk to what is coming. And relax, dominion has Canada’s elections covered. At least taylor swift warned her fans to avoid Nashville in her tweet. Wink wink. So much for the dominion hard drives that were there for forensic audit though. What are the odds? Lol. The west is done sheeple. But ya, go manage your portfolio.

#120 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 9:54 pm

Serious question to those in the medical field that read this blog, perhaps it can help answer some questions.

So far I have known four people that have been infected with Covid, one died which did have other health issue’s. The other a man in his fifties one day just lost every once of energy, no cough, no fever, no other symptom’s. just severe lethargy, he spent one month in ICU and was given a 30% survival rate, he survived but still lives with the after affects of damaged lungs and needs oxygen once in while to keep going.

Recently, a young couple who lives together (early twenties) the male was diagnosed with Covid; she went for a test soon after, came back negative. His symptoms besides being a bit tired were nothing serious. Four days later she was tested again, the results came back negative. They did the responsible thing, completely self isolated, had food delivered to there place and now they are back to normal.

My question is; although we know that this affects the elderly in a terrible way; how is it that two people can live together one positive and the other not getting infected during there isolation together even possible after all that we have been told? We all know the greater emphasis should have been placed on protecting out elders not paying out dividends for shotty work.

There is a whole lot about this that we are not being told about! Wash those hands, where a mask, stay safe but keep asking these questions!!

#121 Doug t on 12.28.20 at 10:25 pm

#117 cottage nut

Look DON’T even think about coming into the city you northern redneck banjo player – we got enough going on without the likes of yous North types pollutin the population down here – now git back in yer shack and STAY AWAY – darned varmits

#122 TrendIsYourFriend on 12.28.20 at 10:49 pm

–Japan aims to eliminate gasoline-powered vehicles in about 15 years, the government said Friday….”

Did a quick, back of the napkin clalcs, using latest Japanese gasoline consumption data, assuming ICEs there go 30 MPG and using EPA 100 MPG equivalent for EVs…
well, doesn’t look pretty.
I wonder where are Japanese going to get all that energy from?
Nuclear? yea
Solar? sure
oh wait, they may just get more, but a lot more, by burning LNG like they do now days…
What’s the ultimate product of LNG combustion? Asking for T2, he would be thrilled to increase our carbon tax even more.

I just hope Japanese energy minister is more competent in the energy matters than T2’s finance minister is in… public finance matters

#123 I'm Alright Jack on 12.28.20 at 11:21 pm

Hungry Bear #29
FYI the only first nation was Africa, where our species evolved from, and then spread to the rest of the world. Our ancestors were undoubtedly all black back then.

Neanderthals were “first” humans in Europe, but we invaded their land, outcompeted them, and killed them off (do you hear them complaining?).

Your “first nations” and every other group of humans of any race or colour are no more special than any other one, just because some of your ancestors may have arrived “first” on any given piece of land. You don’t get permanent ownership of land just because your ancestors happened upon it first.

We are all from Africa. War, invasion, and the resulting takeover of land from other groups of humans has been going on ever since our African days. It is what humans do.

#124 Nonplused on 12.28.20 at 11:34 pm

#108 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 8:06 pm
#96 Nonplused

By no means are the rich (well mostly) evil! They are using every trick in the book to become wealthy including paying minimal tax; using every loophole there is available but employing millions which pay tax. With the exception of newly appointment CEO’s that cut thousands of jobs and receive a huge bonus for it??????? Or a company/government that sends in tax paying brave military personal to deal with what they could not and at the same time time pay out dividends for there failures!! It makes no sense…

My point, whether rich or poor the system is designed to take advantage of everything that there is out there!

There must be a better way???

———————————-

Well that seemed either sarcasm or whiskey laced. But yes there is probably a better way. I think the market will find it though and not the government.

I got let go by one of those “newly appointment CEO’s that cut thousands of jobs and receive a huge bonus for it???????”. But those jobs were going away anyway because the market / government / covid killed all the jobs anyway. The severance was fair. The treatment was compassionate. And now I have to figure out how to best get back on board once we figure out which way this thing is going to go. I think it will be Gen IV nuclear, not solar and batteries, but we will see.

I’ve been around now 52 years. The longest I ever worked one job was 10 years, and it was the best gig I ever had. But it went away. It is just the way things go now. “Creative destruction” as they say.

Technology is moving fast, and only those who can recreate themselves will keep up. Don’t ever depend on a boss. His job is no more secure than yours is.

#125 macroman on 12.28.20 at 11:35 pm

What are the chances that UK Chief Medical Officer Johnathon Van Tam and Canada’s CMO Teresa Tam, both graduating from Nottingham in the late 1980’s and both born 1964/65 being “related”?

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.29.20 at 12:08 am

Anybody thinks that the racist FARtZS should be banned?

#127 SoggyShorts on 12.29.20 at 1:09 am

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 8:43 pm
@#105 Bill

The feds then offer ANOTHER $20k “loan” to the same businesses this fall.
The bonus?
They only have to pay back the original, agreed upon 30K within two years……. out of 60k given to them….
Does ANYONE that can add not see the problem?

********************
45K, not 30k.
They gotta pay back 75%

#128 Nonplused on 12.29.20 at 1:42 am

So the other thing I learned today, chatting with the lady at the smoke shop. Stop trying to go into Costco with your spouse. Send only one. She said the reason they are lining them up is because they are only allowed 700 shoppers in store, but the damn fools keep coming in twos. So I bought my smokes and went to co-op for the groceries, where most people were shopping in ones.

She even said they had signs for a while but gave up because of all the argumentative people and just decided that well then they will stand in line.

#129 fishman on 12.29.20 at 3:43 am

So the Garth figures a federal election in 2021. I needed a pick me up. Man oh man our populist heroes getting the boots to put them.. The Trumpster down for the count, Farage’s Brexit fishermen screwed, got nothing, Modi’s in ca ca with the Punjabi’s, Eastern Front holding, barely, Euroweenies & Yanks putting on the squeeze.
We can look forward to lil potato obliterating the Dippers, simultaneously smashing the Cons coalition with the East. Driving remaining stunned Cons into the waiting warm loving open arms of troublemaking populist Wexiteers. If we’re lucky lil potato will welcome the world & start where we left off pre-coved. 400k immigrants,180k students (with work permits), 180k TFW’s, 200k illegals & 400k ten year visas holders per year.All competing in a real healthy unemployment environment. Don’t forget China’s staring roll. Billions of recycled American debt buying up anything generating cash flow & backed by R/E. . A delicious witches brew. We just need a leader. A Canucklehead with the feral intelligence of a Trump, the cunning of a Putin, & the sense of humour & linguistic gymnastics of a Farage. Let loose the dogs of war, happy times are a coming, well, if not happy at least interesting & decidedly not boring.

#130 Lolo on 12.29.20 at 3:54 am

Early during the pandemic I thought that Christmas could be cancelled. However, I didn’t think that housing prices, nor stock market would be this high. The trouble is, I never know when I will be right, and when I will be wrong. Sigh.

#131 Sky on 12.29.20 at 5:20 am

@ The West on 12.27.20 at 7:50 pm

” TurnerNation:

It is obvious to anyone paying attention to what’s going on. Those on the upper echelon’s of the social schematic will be okay for a couple more years.

The social instability that is now hurling towards us is incalcuable. What has happened to our brains, our world and the economy, this year, cannot be understated.

Those living large do not really understand the impact yet. Don’t worry – they will.”

*******************************************

Suicides, apathy & depression, drug overdoses, financial ruin, domestic violence. All caused by govt lockdowns & glossed over by the media. But at least they’re mentioned.

What hasn’t been covered in the media is a rampant mental health crisis. In fact it’s being INDUCED by the media. I’m talking about OCD — obsessive-compulsive disorder :

“Obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) is a mental disorder in which a person has certain thoughts repeatedly (called “obsessions”) or feels the need to perform certain routines repeatedly (called “compulsions”) to an extent which generates distress or impairs general functioning.”

It’s fair to say most of us have the ‘obsessive’ part down pat. Covid, covid, covid. So we are already halfway there to full blown mental illness.

The ‘compulsion’ element is harder to determine. It comes in degrees. It’s insidious. At what point do you slip from practicing a normal & healthy degree of hygiene to having your life ruled and ruined by it? I can’t answer that. Nobody can. How high is up?

Here’s what I can tell you. We’ve lost over half our own family and close friends to this horrible condition. No, I’m not exaggerating. There’s no end to the constant handwashing, spraying & sanitizing coupled with their revulsion of the toxic microbiome factories otherwise known as society.

Once you get to this point — there is no coming back. Ever. Successful treatment outcomes for adult acquired OCD are very poor.

Even if you manage to spare yourself from this mental illness, what if you have to live with someone who now has it? Money won’t save you.

One of our good friends, who is private jet level wealthy, could go anywhere he wanted to escape this madness. Instead, he’s a complete prisoner inside his home thanks to his Covid OCD wife who refuses to step foot outside the door. And won’t let him either.

And if you think that YOU haven’t been affected in some way — Answer the following: Did you happen to catch any of the Wheel of Fortune reruns over the holidays? The PRE- COVID shows.

These were the shows where the contestants were standing close together & Pat Sajak & Vanna crowded in with congrats & handshakes & pats on the back. Did you find all this a little strange compared to the new socially distanced version? A little “off” somehow? If your answer is ‘yes’, then you’re well on your way to being socially engineered for the New Normal.

People like Howard Hughes and Howie Mandel are meant to garner our sympathy… within a mentally WELL society. Which we no longer are. Because they’ve become role models!

#132 Diamond Dog on 12.29.20 at 5:54 am

Mr. market looks to be in a Funk #49!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbyKhl4N6G4&list=RDAbyKhl4N6G4&start_radio=1

I see one of 2 narratives emerging next year. Jan & Feb slowly bleed into a correction in March as earnings and economic indicators disappoint with a slower than expected recovery or! This highly speculative market continues to defy logic as government intervention, concentrated wealth specifically from the tech sector and commodity values continue to drive it higher into summer where some nuts and bolts shake loose and in the fall the market faces a hard correction. If we look at a Schiller chart adjusted for inflation, we can easily see this exuberant speculation we are witnessing now:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Of course, the argument for a continued bull run is a chart like the one below where historical prices rise and rise throughout history except for basically one exception, the 2000 dot.com bubble. The unwinding of this bubble saw an S/P 500 take 13 years of hard selloff and recovery before prices actually rose higher, through notable events such as the dot.com collapse, 911 and the GFC (which offered plenty of opportunity during their ugly bottoms!):

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices

The problem with this current market is that it’s never been historically valued higher during a pandemic no less, other than the “to the moon” valuations of the illogical 2000 dot.com bubble itself. This next chart is one I wish went back to the beginning of 2000, but still makes a point:

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

And that point is, where on this chart would you prefer to buy in? When price to sales was at .8x? (big yes) Or price to sales at 2.7x? (cautious no) Are we to think that the economy would never recover at .8x or conversely believe that the economy will only grow stronger at 2.7x? We’ve got to know that higher valuations to sales increases risk, right?

Plus, we’ve got to know that the markets take a hit when sales go negative. All tea leaf readers aside, do we expect the next 2 quarters of sales to grow… or contract? Do you see the answer?

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-real-sales-growth

I’m not a tea leaf reader… maybe price to sales rises to 3.4x on pure speculation, commodity demand and beliefs in endless government bailouts and advice to sit on your money only loses another big pop in value but if this did happen and dot.com 2000 valuations repeated, we can forget about some “new normal standard”.

Only a larger bust would follow with a helpless U.S. Fed that has rates at zero and bond and real estate markets in a bubble forcing money into a stock market bubble that would crush new investors (yup, pigs do get slaughtered) but for those who wait, bears and bulls alike, a wonderful buying opportunity emerges as history repeats.

#133 Diamond Dog on 12.29.20 at 7:56 am

and the Covid emergency will kind of slide into a climate emergency because politicians feed off chaos. – Garth

In some respects, it already has. We like to think of climate change as a slow burn but as Californians will testament, it’s here now. Years of drought and fire have ballooned deficit spending there to the point of brain draining the rich like Elon Musk in search of lower taxation. It psychologically effects people who have seen 8% of their burnable state go up in flames with skies full of dense smoke in one year. It just doesn’t fit with California dreaming.

I remember way back in 06′ with this blog in it’s first year or so and it was mentioned that when California and the west coast burns, Canada wouldn’t be far behind, like 5 years or less. BC lost 2.7% of it’s forests in 2017-2018, both record years for fire. The skies filled with smoke that went on for months. We are going to see more intense wildfire seasons and droughts, without a doubt. The only question that remains is the quickness and intensity of these events that come.

Those in the know look to the Arctic for answers. Mid September has been traditional for freeze up this last decade. Lets compare Arctic ice in Sept 15th of 2014:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/2014/ictn2014091512_2014091600_563_arcticictn.001.gif

To Sept 15th of 2020 below:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020091512_2020091600_930_arcticictn.001.gif

Through comparisons, we can at the very least, conjecture a brazen, foolhardy and arrogant guess that Arctic sea ice is on it’s way out in as little as 3 years. What happens to water temps and atmosphere temps over the Arctic with all the ice gone unfortunately, is a question that is far from an intellectually disabled mind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbR-5mHI6bo

What is the problem with the link above, it’s fatal miscalculation? That this planet will be able to sustain population growth past 2025. This world may not be able to sustain the populations we have now past 2030. Otherwise, the premise’s in the link above are correct and as such, it’s worth the watch but it’s fatal miscalculation is that we have the decades we think we have for tech to develop and if economic systems begin to collapse, we will likely lose the means to turn it around.

In other words… its not a climate change emergency because politicians like to feed off chaos (not meaning to take what Garth said out of context, he’s speaking in terms of perception). It’s a climate change emergency because it’s a climate change emergency. Or to re-summarize, one could say that humanity is lighting a match to it’s own long term future and most of us still aren’t catching on.

#134 millmech on 12.29.20 at 8:10 am

#20
Lots of cheap housing out there, my son and his wife have an offer in for a duplex that will be cash flow positive in a smaller town. Take some time and do your research there are lots of affordable places.

What are the numbers, location and cap rate? – Garth

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 8:11 am

@#126 Ponzies Prattle.

Pray tell Ponzie.
Pointless PC pablum permeating your preamble again?

#136 willworkforpickles on 12.29.20 at 8:13 am

The only thing missing in 2021 will be the angst for Trump. The problems arisen out of 2020 will remain even compounding going forward.

#137 Love_The_Cottage on 12.29.20 at 8:14 am

#61 Stan Brooks on 12.28.20 at 3:32 pm
BANNED
___________
I can help you out here Stan.

Insert a statement about how inflation is much higher than reported with no data to support the claim, just 1 example of a price increase (housing for example) ignoring all other data. Then insert a comment about how Stan is smart and all other Canadians are just sheeple.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 8:14 am

@#127 Soggy shirt
“45K, not 30k.
They gotta pay back 75%”

+++

I feel much better now.
Billions of $$$$ handed out to businesses and only 75% need to be repaid.
That should bolster the budget( when we finally get a budget), the debt, the dollar.

#139 UCC on 12.29.20 at 8:19 am

#102 AntMan on 12.28.20 at 6:50 pm
#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm

Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.

——————————————————–

According to OECD data income inequality, the poverty rate and the poverty gap have all fallen in Canada since 1976 https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm. I’m not sure where the myth of growing inequality springs from but I have never seen any credible data to support it.

——–
The myth comes from true believers like MF. Those who don’t want to work for themselves, or make their own way in this world and want the government to look after their every need and fancy want. Taxes have become nothing more than legalized robbery. Canada doesn’t have a taxing problem, it has a spending problem.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 8:24 am

@#129 Fishy
“We just need a leader. A Canucklehead with the feral intelligence of a Trump, the cunning of a Putin, & the sense of humour & linguistic gymnastics of a Farage”

+++++

Alas we have a pumpkinhead with the hairstylist of Trump, the financial cunning of Chavez, the humor of Putin, and the linguistic gymnastics of a broken garage door.

#141 Love_The_Cottage on 12.29.20 at 8:29 am

#102 AntMan on 12.28.20 at 6:50 pm
#26 MF on 12.28.20 at 12:58 pm

Tax rates have actually been falling for the last few decades, particularly at the top. Inequality has been rising throughout the same period.
——————————————————–
According to OECD data income inequality, the poverty rate and the poverty gap have all fallen in Canada since 1976 https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm. I’m not sure where the myth of growing inequality springs from but I have never seen any credible data to support it.
__________
Poverty can fall and income inequality can (and is) increase at the same time. If you can’t tell the difference between these 2 then no sense even talking.

During the past three decades, compensation for CEOs grew 127 times faster than it did for workers. Since 1950, the CEO-to-worker pay ratio has increased 1,000 percent, and that is not a typo. CEOs used to earn 30 times the median wage; now they rake in 500 times.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

#142 Sail Away on 12.29.20 at 8:33 am

#127 SoggyShorts on 12.29.20 at 1:09 am
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.20 at 8:43 pm
@#105 Bill

The feds then offer ANOTHER $20k “loan” to the same businesses this fall.

The bonus?
They only have to pay back the original, agreed upon 30K within two years……. out of 60k given to them….
Does ANYONE that can add not see the problem?

——————

45K, not 30k.
They gotta pay back 75%

——————

Not exactly. A total of $20k is forgiveable. Directly from the government website:

‘This means the additional loan effectively increases CEBA loans from the existing $40,000 to $60,000 for eligible businesses, of which a total of $20,000 will be forgiven if the balance of the loan is repaid by December 31, 2022.’

Naturally, both my businesses have received the $60k loan, of which $40k must be repaid. Even better? The loans are interest-free.

Even more better? Federal EV incentives allow companies to immediately expense $55k for electric vehicles. So yes… it’s true: my wife’s new Tesla is a company vehicle.

It just feels good to do good for the economy and the environment.

#143 Love_The_Cottage on 12.29.20 at 8:41 am

#117 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 12.28.20 at 9:17 pm
We don’t need the strain on our healthcare resources.
________
I know others have made this point previously but it bears repeating. Will you be coming south if you need specialist treatment at world class hospitals like Princess Margaret? Thought so.
Shoo fly, don’t bother me.

#144 Carbon tax that on 12.29.20 at 8:55 am

#133 Diamond Dog

Man-made global warming is a total hoax. There is nothing we can do to stop the Earth’s naturally occurring climate cycles. The fake narrative ensures they can bend you over the table and empty your wallet without a fight

This blog seeks to rise about extreme, black-and-white statements that are backed by hopium, vapours and faerie poop. Try harder next time, or go away. – Garth

#145 Dharma Bum on 12.29.20 at 9:13 am

#56 MF

I have never smoked anything in my life.
——————————————————————–

That’s a real shame. You don’t know what you’re missing.

Over the holidays, I smoked beef ribs, pork ribs, brisket, sausages, and some turkey.

Totally delicious. Smoked heaven.

Since Adamson BBQ was shut down by the COVID cops in Toronto, I’ve had to ramp up my own smoking game.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/adamson-bbq-locks-changed-1.5817090

I might never need to eat BBQ out again. Unless, of course, I ever get back to Austin, TX.

COVID breeds self sufficiency.

Smoking is good. My backyard is a BBQ smoke pit now.

The neighbours love me.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 9:23 am

@#142 Sailing
“So yes… it’s true: my wife’s new Tesla is a company vehicle.”

++++

Ahahahaha.
God bless the environment.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.20 at 9:44 am

Hmmmm.
Apparently even ruthless Communist dictators cant shut down a pesky, microscopic virus…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-beijing/chinas-capital-locks-down-part-of-district-in-coronavirus-fight-idUSKBN2930TL

#148 Tron Light on 12.29.20 at 10:19 am

#133 Diamond Dog on 12.29.20 at 7:56 am

All I have to say to that is – LOL!

#149 Dharma Bum on 12.29.20 at 10:26 am

#134 Milmechhhh

Lots of cheap housing out there, my son and his wife have an offer in for a duplex that will be cash flow positive in a smaller town.
——————————————————————–

Report back in a year with the cash flow “positive” information, after the deadbeat tenants have stopped paying rent, trashed the place, and the owners have incurred legal fees to initiate the eviction process.

Renting out a cheap duplex unit in a small town?

Puh-leeeeeeze!

#150 Sara on 12.29.20 at 10:30 am

#144 Carbon tax that on 12.29.20 at 8:55 am

Man-made global warming is a total hoax. There is nothing we can do to stop the Earth’s naturally occurring climate cycles.
====================

Do you have children or grand-children you care about? I ask because they will be left to live with the very negative effects of man-made climate change should you be wrong in your assumption — which you are. Better to do something about it while we still can, if not for us, for them. Denial won’t fix anything though it probably makes you feel better now.

#151 TurnerNation on 12.29.20 at 10:30 am

On the theme of control over our Eating, Breeding and Movements/travel I have three new examples:
Always the Long Game. It seems clear that this global “reset” and mind control and re-programming was just waiting for 2020 – CV did that, yep.

– Children, meeting people & socializing (or not) – hard to date & breed eh?

@jeffreyatucker
This film short (~3 min) made by a Toronto teen is frighteningly brilliant and terrifying, a good summary of what “public health authorities” have done to children this year. Must watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSkbd6hRkXo&feature=youtu.be

— Feeding: Last year when subway stations, streetcars were entirely wrapped in “Go Vegan” ads – who has that kind of budget?
We pretty much know the globalists are gunning to ban/limit meat consumption. The climate you know!

Solution? Lab grown soylent green. It’s here:

“Eat Just is a food tech company that produces meat and egg substitutes, and recently became the first company approved to sell its lab-grown chicken product, GOOD Meat Cultured Chicken, in Singapore. Singapore is the first government to allow the sale of cultured meat.
The chicken will be served at restaurant 1880 in Singapore as a part of a trio of sample dishes that will sell for approximately $23.
“Eat Just is paving the way for the cellular agriculture industry, which has the potential to completely transform our food systems today to make them more sustainable and humane,”

— Watch your travel rights. With flights, airlines vanishing…Jetting, once again, for the rich? A toast to our elites.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that launching an air travel service when the COVID-19 pandemic has decimated commercial aviation is ambitious, to put it charitably. The Globe’s Joe Castaldo writes, however, that Toronto upstart Momentum Jets says interest in private flights is strong as wealthy Canadians look for more secure and convenient ways to fly. Momentum Jets is also striving to broaden access to the luxury of private flight from the ultrarich. Rather than chartering an entire flight, which is typically billed by the hour and can cost anywhere from $10,000 to $250,000, Momentum will allow customers to purchase individual seats on a private aircraft for select routes…
A seat on a round trip Toronto-Montreal flight could run between $600 and $800, while longer haul flights to islands such as Barbados and Turks and Caicos can cost up to $5,000, about double the price of a business-class seat. © 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#152 Sail Away on 12.29.20 at 10:42 am

@#133 Diamond Dog on 12.29.20 at 7:56 am

I can say this:

1. you are a man of many words, and
2. although I have read many studies, research articles, and opinion pieces regarding climate change, your post was indisputably the most recent

#153 n1tro on 12.29.20 at 10:54 am

#150 Sara on 12.29.20 at 10:30 am

Do you have children or grand-children you care about? I ask because they will be left to live with the very negative effects of man-made climate change should you be wrong in your assumption — which you are. Better to do something about it while we still can, if not for us, for them. Denial won’t fix anything though it probably makes you feel better now.
———–
Wow, “think of the children” argument. That’s the same kind of thought process that has us in lockdown 2.0. It worked so well last time, I’m sure it’ll have the similar to better results this time.

Ineffective actions won’t fix anything though it probably makes you feel better now. <– applies to climate change, covid-19 management, making minimum payments on debt, etc, etc

#154 BillyBob on 12.29.20 at 11:07 am

#150 Sara on 12.29.20 at 10:30 am

Do you have children or grand-children you care about? I ask because they will be left to live with the very negative effects of man-made climate change should you be wrong in your assumption — which you are. Better to do something about it while we still can, if not for us, for them. Denial won’t fix anything though it probably makes you feel better now.

==================================

Meh. Canada will be fine, climate-wise.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

Despite the title, Canada figures quite prominently in the article.

And don’t worry, this is from a left-leaning publication so no need to feel threatened.

#155 millmech on 12.29.20 at 11:14 am

Garth,
Cash offer price $269k, each rents for $750,, small interior town in BC, her family lives in the town and will do minor repairs, issues etc, give 30% for operating expenses, cap rate of 4 %.

#156 Ross on 12.29.20 at 11:29 am

Danger; You are being conditioned to believe that freedom is a form of selfishness.
We don’t need no vaccination
We don’t need no thought control
A dark sarcassim in the classroom
Teacher leave them kids alone.

#157 millmech on 12.29.20 at 12:43 pm

#150 Sara
If climate change is so apocalyptic why are most of the leaders of this movement living on ocean front property which according to the dogma of the day will be under hundreds of feet of water.
I would put more faith in their dire predictions if they were all locating to Denver and any other high altitude location but they are not.
Look at their green foot prints, ie multiple high energy homes with large foot prints, multiple flights to exotic locations for climate summits, yachts, helicopters(seems hypocritical to me)

#158 Quintilian on 12.29.20 at 12:56 pm

“The spring market will be nuts, and start soon after the virus numbers crest and the lockdowns end. ”

Are you sure?
Just how many greater fools can there be left?

#159 Howard on 12.29.20 at 1:14 pm

#120 Drinking on 12.28.20 at 9:54 pm

Some people have natural immunity to certain types of viruses.

It has been found that some people who engaged in risky behaviour in the 80s, but never contracted HIV (despite most of their peer group catching it who were engaged in the very same behaviour), have certain genes that block access of the virus to cells.

#160 the jaguar on 12.29.20 at 1:25 pm

@ Fishman
You are my new Guru.

#161 [email protected] on 12.29.20 at 1:47 pm

#117 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 12.28.20 at 9:17 pm

Don’t even THINK of coming up north for New Year’s, you inbred, degenerate southern hillbillies!

====================

Alas, even hillbillies are affected by reverse psychology

#162 Ustabe on 12.29.20 at 1:57 pm

#155 millmech on 12.29.20 at 11:14 am

Garth,
Cash offer price $269k, each rents for $750,, small interior town in BC, her family lives in the town and will do minor repairs, issues etc, give 30% for operating expenses, cap rate of 4 %

Both my adult sons now live each in a duplex with zoning that allows a suite below the owner occupied side. They started out sharing one, recently managed to lever that into the second.

One is a back to front, the other is a top/bottom duplex, neither look like your typical duplex, in fact they look like single detached.

Their experience is cash flow positive, no tenant issues and home ownership that actually covers all its own costs. The newest one isn’t quite there but will be as soon as we finish the suite and it starts generating income.

What makes it work? We are not in a large city, in fact its quite a small town. 13,000 I think. People can overlook the small towns all they want to, meanwhile we will enjoy the lifestyle with 50% less issues on 90% of the income.

#163 WTF on 12.29.20 at 2:04 pm

Garth, get a new critter?

Politicians and money. They shouldn’t be allowed to spend anything over a certain amount till its vetted by the AG and we know the true cost. Period.

People who simply do not have financial acumen making decisions affecting this country for generations and we wouldn’t trust to run lemonade stand now control taxation and spending. Not a good model.

#164 calgary rip off on 12.29.20 at 2:16 pm

Re: Vaccine letdown:

The vaccines will certainly help. However life will not go back to normal. Modified forever. Why? The vaccines do not prevent transmission and infection. People will still get infected. All reliance on the vaccine is false hope. Vaccines are a single tool in what should be a large arsenal. Even now physicians are not doing what they should be doing in treating covid 19. Hence the high death toll. There is no clear treatment protocol. There is no thinking outside of evidence based medicine and randomized double blinded controlled trials. Medicine is about politics, disease, pharmacy, and money. As such, people will die because red tape prevents patient care. There is a reason why the sick are called “patients”. To be ill in a hospital requires patience. Most of medicine requires lengthy diagnoses followed by rounds, discussion and consultation of evidence based trials. What happens if there is no evidence? Physicians are dealing with very sick patients and additionally dont want to risk their licenses or ridicule from their colleagues. This often does not end well for patients.

There are many anecdotal reports of Covid afflicted using vitamin C and D3 in high dose manner, at home and recover rapidly from Covid 19. Some ridicule this and say “vitamins”. Such thinking is foolish. Unfortunately as reflected in the death toll lack of humility in medicine is widespread. Fortunately those in the know can help themselves rather than foolishly putting all bets on a vaccine solution.

What to do?

1) Consider the vaccine. Get the vaccine if the personal risk is less than the benefit. As Covid 19 has no clear victim pattern, vaccines should outweigh risks.

2) Up your Vitamin D3 intake. 400 IU is a joke. So is 1000 IU. 3000-10000 IU a day. 10,000-100,000+IU if acutely ill with Covid.

3) Up your vitamin C intake. 1 gram a day minimum. 2 grams every 1-2 hours if ill with Covid 19.

4) Multivitamin with zinc 15 mg.

5) Good food.

6) Sleep.

7) Cold showers.

8) Exercise.

If only the WHO, Dr. Tadros, Dr Tam and Dr. Hinshaw would advocate these things. But they dont because they are just “vitamins”.

Covid 19 will eventually become like the 1918 flu. This will take several years.

#165 Diamond Dog on 12.29.20 at 3:08 pm

#154 BillyBob on 12.29.20 at 11:07 am

Russia won’t be so lucky.

https://i1.wp.com/www.cryopolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/russia-permafrost-oil-mines-map-1.jpg?fit=900%2C532&ssl=1

We tend to take it for granted just how stabilizing Arctic ice is on our atmosphere in the Northern hemisphere. If/when the Arctic loses its ice, what happens then? Last year, there was unprecedented ice melts surrounding Alaska. Ocean buoys 100 miles off the coast of Alaska in the Arctic ocean were tripping 10 degree C.

We should know that an Arctic ocean void of ice would be very different than what we see now. Freeze up would be delayed with each passing year. Ocean ice melts would come earlier and earlier with oceans becoming warmer and warmer delaying refreeze and as oceans warm, so will the atmosphere above it as its already doing to a lesser degree now.

It’s likely that the second or third season of a summer free Arctic ocean would see average ocean highs at 10C or warmer, increasing atmospheric temps near the same amount. Its not a big leap to imagine what happens next. Permafrost and Greenland melt seasons would be much longer, more intense and dramatic.

A much warmer atmosphere would also take on more humidity and that means more rainfall. You see how much permafrost there is in Russia. Thawing permafrost is already a problem. Imagine summers that are 10+ degrees warmer in the northern hemisphere in the not too distant future and what that would mean not just in the north but with forests and crop lands. When the Arctic ocean loses its ice is up for debate, but I think its soon. Like, 2023 soon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_qwX2u6igw

#166 Mike from Canmore on 12.29.20 at 5:30 pm

#104 Dog Breath

Thanks for bringing that up, have been curious about what will happen in canada if south of us goes awry. No judicial anything. Judges go – If I don’t look at the evidence then there is no evidence, sheesh. Canadians won’t bat an eye.

#167 Drinking on 12.29.20 at 6:10 pm

#124 Nonplused

Ha, a little of both I suppose. The story I read about sending our tax payed military personnel to a care home because they failed to do their job and then give out dividends to the shareholders just irked me the wrong way. All good, stay safe!

#168 Drinking on 12.29.20 at 6:14 pm

#159 Howard

Thanks for your response. I guess I am and I would say many are just confused. There are numerous reports that states on how contagious this virus is and here you have two people living together; one has it, the other never caught it, thank god or whatever one believes in. Lucky, darn right, but very confusing!